WorldWideScience

Sample records for underlies global pdf

  1. An Economical PDF-Based Turbulence Closure Model for Cloud-Resolving Models and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, S. K.; Bogenschutz, P.

    2011-12-01

    The representation of boundary layer clouds in GCMs has long been a challenge to climate modelers. The Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) embeds a coarse-grid 2D cloud-resolving model (CRM) in every GCM grid column. In MMF, the challenge becomes improving boundary layer cloud representation in coarse-grid CRMs in an economical way. Our solution has been to integrate several existing components: a prognostic SGS TKE equation, the assumed joint PDF method of Golaz et al. (2002), the diagnostic second-moment closure of Redelsperger and Sommeria (1986), the diagnostic closure for /line{w'w'w'} by Canuto et al. (2001), and a turbulence length scale related to the square root of subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) (Teixeira and Cheinet 2004) and eddy length scales. In comparison to the implementation of Golaz et al. (2002), our turbulence closure requires only one extra prognostic instead of seven. This makes our closure more economical, more portable, and better behaved. Our closure also uses a novel turbulence length scale that produces excellent scalablity with horizontal resolution. We implemented our approach in a CRM and and tested it against large-eddy simulation (LES) results. We also implemented it in a MMF and evaluated the results using global observations. The CRM that we used is SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling) developed by Marat Khairoutdinov (Khairoutdinov and Randall 2003). SAM-PDF incorporates our new turbulence closure model. In SAM-PDF, the SGS TKE is prognosed, the turbulence length scale is related to the SGS TKE and eddy length scales, SGS condensation is diagnosed from the assumed joint PDF, the SGS buoyancy flux is diagnosed from the assumed joint PDF, and additional moments required by the PDF closure are diagnosed, so no additional prognostic equations are needed. The turbulence length scale is needed to parameterize the TKE dissipation rate and the eddy diffusivity. Cheng et al. (2010) showed that eddy diffusivity schemes

  2. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

  3. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  4. Illuminating the photon content of the proton within a global PDF analysis arXiv

    CERN Document Server

    Bertone, Valerio; Hartland, Nathan P.; Rojo, Juan

    Precision phenomenology at the LHC requires accounting for both higher-order QCD and electroweak corrections as well as for photon-initiated subprocesses. Building upon the recent NNPDF3.1 fit, in this work the photon content of the proton is determined within a global analysis supplemented by the LUXqed constraint relating the photon PDF to lepton-proton scattering structure functions: NNPDF3.1luxQED. The uncertainties on the resulting photon PDF are at the level of a few percent, with photons carrying up to 0.5% of the proton's momentum. We study the phenomenological implications of NNPDF3.1luxQED at the LHC for Drell-Yan, vector boson pair, top quark pair, and Higgs plus vector boson production. We find that photon-initiated contributions can be significant for many processes, leading to corrections of up to 20%. Our results represent a state-of-the-art determination of the partonic structure of the proton including its photon component.

  5. Global hotspots of river erosion under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plink-Bjorklund, P.; Reichler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme precipitation plays a significant role for river hydrology, flood hazards and landscape response. For example, the September 2013 rainstorm in the Colorado Front Range evacuated the equivalent of hundreds to thousands of years of hillslope weathering products. Although promoted by steep topography, the Colorado event is clearly linked to rainfall intensity, since most of the 1100 debris flows occurred within the highest rainfall contour. Additional evidence for a strong link between extreme precipitation and river erosion comes from the sedimentary record, and especially from that of past greenhouse climates. The existence of such a link suggests that information about global rainfall patterns can be used to define regions of increased erosion potential. However, the question arises what rainfall criteria to use and how well the method works. A related question is how ongoing climate change and the corresponding shifts in rainfall might impact the results. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis and output from a climate model to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to landscape change in response to extreme precipitation. In order to define the regions, we combine several hydroclimatological and geomorphological criteria into a single index of erosion potential. We show that for current climate, our criteria applied to atmospheric reanalysis or to climate model data successfully localize known areas of increased erosion potential, such as the Colorado region. We then apply our criteria to climate model data for future climate to document how the location, extent, and intensity of erosion hotspots are likely to change under global warming.

  6. Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Strauss, C Kent; Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C; Branch, Trevor A; Gaines, Steven D; Szuwalski, Cody S; Cabral, Reniel B; Rader, Douglas N; Leland, Amanda

    2016-05-03

    Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.

  7. AFRICA'S FOOD SECURITY UNDER GLOBALIZATION | Kent ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Advocates of globalization favor market liberalization and export-oriented agriculture. They favor large-scale operations with high levels of mechanization. For the advocates of globalization, the basis of food security is wealth, and the possibility of obtaining food from diverse sources through the open market. The critics see ...

  8. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2008-06-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in current global climate models (GCMs). The representation of potential changes in the form of a probability density function (PDF) is increasingly sought for applications. This article presents a method of estimating PDFs for projections based on the "pattern scaling" technique, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the standardized regional change. A mathematical framework for the problem is developed, which includes a joint probability distribution for the product of these two factors. Several simple approaches are considered for representing the factors by PDFs using GCM results, allowing model weighting. The four-parameter beta distribution is found to provide a smooth PDF that can match the mean and range of GCM results, allowing skewness when appropriate. A beta representation of the range in global warming consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report is presented. The method is applied to changes in Australian temperature and precipitation, under the A1B scenario of concentrations, using results from 23 GCMs in the CMIP3 database. Statistical results, including percentiles and threshold exceedences, are compared for the case of southern Australian temperature change in summer. For the precipitation example, central Australian winter rainfall, the usual linear scaling assumption produces a net change PDF that extends to unphysically large decreases. This is avoided by assuming an exponential relationship between percentage decreases in rainfall and warming.

  9. Heavy-quark mass dependence in global PDF analyses and 3- and 4-flavour parton distributions

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, A D; Thorne, R S; Watt, G

    2010-01-01

    We study the sensitivity of our recent MSTW 2008 NLO and NNLO PDF analyses to the values of the charm and bottom quark masses, and we provide additional public PDF sets for a wide range of these heavy-quark masses. We quantify the impact of varying m_c and m_b on the cross sections for W, Z and Higgs production at the Tevatron and the LHC. We generate 3- and 4-flavour versions of the (5-flavour) MSTW 2008 PDFs by evolving the input PDFs and alpha_S determined from fits in the 5-flavour scheme, including the eigenvector PDF sets necessary for calculation of PDF uncertainties. As an example of their use, we study the difference in the Z total cross sections at the Tevatron and LHC in the 4- and 5-flavour schemes. Significant differences are found, illustrating the need to resum large logarithms in Q^2/m_b^2 by using the 5-flavour scheme. The 4-flavour scheme is still necessary, however, if cuts are imposed on associated (massive) b-quarks, as is the case for the experimental measurement of Z b bbar production a...

  10. ECONOMIC NATIONALISM’S VIABILITY UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Mihaela ILIESCU

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The path undertaken by the world economy is irreversible - the world economic system is a system based on interdependencies, cooperation and multilateralism but economic openness is not full. Each country, in order to protect their national interest call, in different proportion, depending on the circumstances and of the economic-social and political interests, for different forms of the economic nationalism, forms that have adapted continuously to the demands required for integrating on the foreign markets. The recent global economic crisis intensified the rhetoric and the economic nationalism’s practices but it is not about rebirth, but of renewal, of remodeling the nationalist policies, globalization being a premise of the new economic nationalism. The scope of this paper is to emphasize using empirical data the fact that nationalism and globalization, from an economical point of view, are not antagonistic policies, they coexist and influence each other, both generating contradictory effects, in terms of provided opportunities and risks.

  11. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  12. Charm and beauty quark masses in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harland-Lang, L. A.; Martin, A. D.; Motylinski, P.; Thorne, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the variation in the MMHT2014 PDFs when we allow the heavy-quark masses m_c and m_b to vary away from their default values. We make PDF sets available in steps of Δ m_c =0.05 GeV and Δ m_b =0.25 GeV, and present the variation in the PDFs and in the predictions. We examine the comparison to the HERA data on charm and beauty structure functions and note that in each case the heavy-quark data, and the inclusive data, have a slight preference for lower masses than our default values. We provide PDF sets with three and four active quark flavours, as well as the standard value of five flavours. We use the pole mass definition of the quark masses, as in the default MMHT2014 analysis, but briefly comment on the overline{MS} definition.

  13. Charm and beauty quark masses in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harland-Lang, L A; Martin, A D; Motylinski, P; Thorne, R S

    We investigate the variation in the MMHT2014 PDFs when we allow the heavy-quark masses [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to vary away from their default values. We make PDF sets available in steps of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and present the variation in the PDFs and in the predictions. We examine the comparison to the HERA data on charm and beauty structure functions and note that in each case the heavy-quark data, and the inclusive data, have a slight preference for lower masses than our default values. We provide PDF sets with three and four active quark flavours, as well as the standard value of five flavours. We use the pole mass definition of the quark masses, as in the default MMHT2014 analysis, but briefly comment on the [Formula: see text] definition.

  14. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  15. Global Dirac bispinor entanglement under Lorentz boosts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittencourt, Victor A. S. V.; Bernardini, Alex E.; Blasone, Massimo

    2018-03-01

    The effects of Lorentz boosts on the quantum entanglement encoded by a pair of massive spin-1/2 particles are described according to the Lorentz covariant structure described by Dirac bispinors. The quantum system considered incorporates four degrees of freedom: two of them related to the bispinor intrinsic parity and the other two related to the bispinor spin projection, i.e., the Dirac particle helicity. Because of the natural multipartite structure involved, the Meyer-Wallach global measure of entanglement is preliminarily used for computing global quantum correlations, while the entanglement separately encoded by spin degrees of freedom is measured through the negativity of the reduced two-particle spin-spin state. A general framework to compute the changes on quantum entanglement induced by a boost is developed and then specialized to describe three particular antisymmetric two-particle states. According to the results obtained, two-particle spin-spin entanglement cannot be created by the action of a Lorentz boost in a spin-spin separable antisymmetric state. On the other hand, the maximal spin-spin entanglement encoded by antisymmetric superpositions is degraded by Lorentz boosts driven by high-speed frame transformations. Finally, the effects of boosts on chiral states are shown to exhibit interesting invariance properties, which can only be obtained through such a Lorentz covariant formulation of the problem.

  16. Island development: Local governance under globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huei-Min Tsai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Issues surrounding island development have generated a growing volume of research. What does it mean to develop? How can island communities maintain control over development processes to the benefit of the local economy, rather than seeing economic flows enter and exit the island with little or a primarily negative impact? And how important is local knowledge for edifying local governance and enhancing potentials for innovation in island development? Island histories have repeatedly been forwarded as exemplars and ‘lessons’ for global learning on (unsustainability. To consider these issues, we have selected a number of papers from among the presentations given at the International Geographical Union’s Commission on Islands Conference, Island Development: Local Economy, Culture, Innovation and Sustainability, which took place in the Penghu Archipelago, Taiwan, 1–5 October 2013. These papers serve as examples of how the processes of globalization have penetrated the borders and changed the political and economic structures of islands. They also explore how island-based innovations in science, technology, culture, and formal or informal governance might contribute to sustainable island development.

  17. Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jay R. Malcolm; Adam Markham; Ronald P. Neilson; Michael. Oaraci

    2002-01-01

    Greefihouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 doubled climatic forcing.

  18. PDF Explained

    CERN Document Server

    Whitington, John

    2011-01-01

    An introduction to the PDF file format, threaded through with practical examples - deconstructing, creating and processing PDF files. After exploring how PDF is produced, and how it can be edited with tools from text editors to Ghostscript to PDFTK, readers will learn to deal with problems with PDF files and common error messages.

  19. Separable mechanisms underlying global feature-based attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Rowena; Boehler, Carsten N; Stoppel, Christian M; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schoenfeld, Mircea A; Hopf, Jens-Max

    2012-10-31

    Feature-based attention is known to operate in a spatially global manner, in that the selection of attended features is not bound to the spatial focus of attention. Here we used electromagnetic recordings in human observers to characterize the spatiotemporal signature of such global selection of an orientation feature. Observers performed a simple orientation-discrimination task while ignoring task-irrelevant orientation probes outside the focus of attention. We observed that global feature-based selection, indexed by the brain response to unattended orientation probes, is composed of separable functional components. One such component reflects global selection based on the similarity of the probe with task-relevant orientation values ("template matching"), which is followed by a component reflecting selection based on the similarity of the probe with the orientation value under discrimination in the focus of attention ("discrimination matching"). Importantly, template matching occurs at ∼150 ms after stimulus onset, ∼80 ms before the onset of discrimination matching. Moreover, source activity underlying template matching and discrimination matching was found to originate from ventral extrastriate cortex, with the former being generated in more anterolateral and the latter in more posteromedial parts, suggesting template matching to occur in visual cortex higher up in the visual processing hierarchy than discrimination matching. We take these observations to indicate that the population-level signature of global feature-based selection reflects a sequence of hierarchically ordered operations in extrastriate visual cortex, in which the selection based on task relevance has temporal priority over the selection based on the sensory similarity between input representations.

  20. Creative Industries: Development Processes Under Contemporary Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerija Kontrimienė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the processes of developing creative industries under conditions of a growth in the worldwide economy and globalization, discloses the role of the sector of creative industries and shows its place in the system of the modern global economy. The paper presents a comparative analysis of theories and theoretical approaches intended for the sector of creative industries and its development as well as defines regularities and specificities characteristic of the development of creative industries. Particular attention is shifted on the growth and development of creative industries considering the current challenges of globalization and on the most important specificities of the developing sector in the context of the challenges of economic globalization. The paper examines the trends reflecting the place of the sector of creative industries in the economy of the modern world, including the tendencies indicating changes in the export of the products created in this sector. The article considers the issues of developing creative industries and reveals priorities of future research.

  1. Plant - microbe interactions under Global Change: the microbial perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    There is ample evidence that both microorganisms and plants will respond to Global Changes, such as enhanced temperatures, increased nitrogen deposition and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, or biodiversity loss. Plant and microbial activities are linked, amongst other factors, by belowground carbon allocation and aboveground nutrient allocation, which may be altered under Global Changes to different extents. The effect of Global Changes on the interaction of plants and microbes is therefore often difficult to predict. In my talk, I will look at plant-microbe interactions from a microbial perspective. I will ask the question what the direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of Global Changes are on microbial activities in soil and what this in turn means for plants and for ecosystem-scale fluxes. I will present results from an in-situ drought experiment, from a long-term soil warming experiment and from a plant diversity experiment, where we investigated microbial growth and turnover, carbon and nutrient use efficiency and gross nutrient transformation rates.

  2. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  3. The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

  4. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  5. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  6. Neural Global Pattern Similarity Underlies True and False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zhifang; Zhu, Bi; Zhuang, Liping; Lu, Zhonglin; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui

    2016-06-22

    The neural processes giving rise to human memory strength signals remain poorly understood. Inspired by formal computational models that posit a central role of global matching in memory strength, we tested a novel hypothesis that the strengths of both true and false memories arise from the global similarity of an item's neural activation pattern during retrieval to that of all the studied items during encoding (i.e., the encoding-retrieval neural global pattern similarity [ER-nGPS]). We revealed multiple ER-nGPS signals that carried distinct information and contributed differentially to true and false memories: Whereas the ER-nGPS in the parietal regions reflected semantic similarity and was scaled with the recognition strengths of both true and false memories, ER-nGPS in the visual cortex contributed solely to true memory. Moreover, ER-nGPS differences between the parietal and visual cortices were correlated with frontal monitoring processes. By combining computational and neuroimaging approaches, our results advance a mechanistic understanding of memory strength in recognition. What neural processes give rise to memory strength signals, and lead to our conscious feelings of familiarity? Using fMRI, we found that the memory strength of a given item depends not only on how it was encoded during learning, but also on the similarity of its neural representation with other studied items. The global neural matching signal, mainly in the parietal lobule, could account for the memory strengths of both studied and unstudied items. Interestingly, a different global matching signal, originated from the visual cortex, could distinguish true from false memories. The findings reveal multiple neural mechanisms underlying the memory strengths of events registered in the brain. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366792-11$15.00/0.

  7. Revealing the underlying drivers of disaster risk: a global analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-04-01

    Disasters events are perfect examples of compound events. Disaster risk lies at the intersection of several independent components such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Understanding the weight of each component requires extensive standardisation. Here, I show how footprints of past disastrous events were generated using GIS modelling techniques and used for extracting population and economic exposures based on distribution models. Using past event losses, it was possible to identify and quantify a wide range of socio-politico-economic drivers associated with human vulnerability. The analysis was applied to about nine thousand individual past disastrous events covering earthquakes, floods and tropical cyclones. Using a multiple regression analysis on these individual events it was possible to quantify each risk component and assess how vulnerability is influenced by various hazard intensities. The results show that hazard intensity, exposure, poverty, governance as well as other underlying factors (e.g. remoteness) can explain the magnitude of past disasters. Analysis was also performed to highlight the role of future trends in population and climate change and how this may impacts exposure to tropical cyclones in the future. GIS models combined with statistical multiple regression analysis provided a powerful methodology to identify, quantify and model disaster risk taking into account its various components. The same methodology can be applied to various types of risk at local to global scale. This method was applied and developed for the Global Risk Analysis of the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR). It was first applied on mortality risk in GAR 2009 and GAR 2011. New models ranging from global assets exposure and global flood hazard models were also recently developed to improve the resolution of the risk analysis and applied through CAPRA software to provide probabilistic economic risk assessments such as Average Annual Losses (AAL

  8. The global mean energy balance under cloud-free conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Martin; Hakuba, Maria; Folini, Dois; Ott, Patricia; Long, Charles

    2017-04-01

    A long standing problem of climate models is their overestimation of surface solar radiation not only under all-sky, but also under clear-sky conditions (Wild et al. 1995, Wild et al. 2006). This overestimation reduced over time in consecutive model generations due to the simulation of stronger atmospheric absorption. Here we analyze the clear sky fluxes of the latest climate model generation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) against an expanded and updated set of direct observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Clear sky climatologies from these sites have been composed based on the Long and Ackermann (2000) clear sky detection algorithm (Hakuba et al. 2017), and sampling issues when comparing with model simulated clear sky fluxes have been analyzed in Ott (2017). Overall, the overestimation of clear sky insolation in the CMIP5 models is now merely 1-2 Wm-2 in the multimodel mean, compared to 4 Wm-2 in CMIP3 and 6 Wm-2 in AMIPII (Wild et al. 2006). Still a considerable spread in the individual model biases is apparent, ranging from -2 Wm-2 to 10 Wm-2 when averaged over 53 globally distributed BSRN sites. This bias structure is used to infer best estimates for present day global mean clear sky insolation, following an approach developped in Wild et al. (2013, 2015, Clim. Dyn.) for all sky fluxes. Thereby the flux biases in the various models are linearly related to their respective global means. A best estimate can then be inferred from the linear regression at the intersect where the bias against the surface observations becomes zero. This way we obtain a best estimate of 247 Wm-2 for the global mean insolation at the Earth surface under cloud free conditions, and a global mean absorbed solar radiation of 214 Wm-2 in the cloud-free atmosphere, assuming a global mean surface albedo of 13.5%. Combined with a best estimate for the net influx of solar radiation at the Top of Atmosphere under cloud free conditions

  9. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Global drylands encompassing hyper-arid, arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid areas cover about 41 percent of the earth's terrestrial surface and are home to more than a third of the world's population. By analyzing observations for 1948–2008 and climate model simulations for 1948–2100, we show that global drylands have expanded in the last sixty years and will continue to expand in the 21st~century. By the end of this century, the world's drylands (under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario are projected to be 5.8 × 106 km2 (or 10% larger than in the 1961–1990 climatology. The major expansion of arid regions will occur over southwest North America, the northern fringe of Africa, southern Africa, and Australia, while major expansions of semiarid regions will occur over the north side of the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and North and South America. The global dryland expansions will increase the population affected by water scarcity and land degradations.

  10. Regional climate change under high-end global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Michael; Hemming, Deborah; Betts, Richard

    2010-05-01

    Global emissions of greenhouse gases have continued to rise throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. If no steps are taken to reduce these emissions, it is likely that global temperatures will exceed the limit of 2 deg.C by 2100 (relative to the preindustrial period) desired by the EU. The climate projections from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) suggest that global temperatures will increase between 1.6 and 6.9 deg.C by 2100, relative to the preindustrial period. Global mean temperature increases of 4 deg.C or more (referred to as 'high-end' projections) are therefore entirely possible. Here, we examine changes in temperature and precipitation from several ensembles of climate models, focusing on those projections where global mean temperatures increase by 4 deg.C or more by the 2090s. We have examined projections from the AR4 models, and the Hadley Centre's perturbed physics ensembles (Qump; based on the HadCM3 climate model). One of the Qump ensembles included an interactive carbon cycle. Previous work has shown that feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle can result in enhanced global warming. These ensembles used greenhouse gas concentrations from a subset of the SRES emission scenarios B1, A1B, A2 and A1FI. The results show that high-end climate change would be avoided if emissions follow the B1 trajectory. However, high-end changes become increasingly frequent under the A1B, A2 and A1FI scenarios (in that order). Overall, 52 of the 131 projections analysed were classed as high-end. The high-end projections suggest that 4 deg.C global warming could be reached by the 2080s, or by the 2070s if emissions are high. If feedbacks from the carbon cycle are strong, 4 deg.C could be reached as early as the 2060s, although our current understanding suggests that such strong feedbacks are unlikely. We also compared global maps of temperature and precipitation changes from the high-end and the remaining members of each ensemble. We found that, using multi

  11. Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-11-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

  12. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  13. Observed magnified runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jr-Chuan; Lee, Tsung-Yu; Lee, Jun-Yi

    2014-01-01

    Runoff response to rainfall intensification under global warming is crucial, but is poorly discussed due to the limited data length and human alteration. Historical rainfall and runoff records in pristine catchments in Taiwan were investigated through trend analysis and cross temperature difference analysis. Trend analysis showed that both rainfall and runoff in the 99.9-percentile have been significantly increasing in terms of frequency and intensity over the past four decades. Cross temperature difference analysis quantified that the rainfall and runoff extremes (including the 99.0–99.9-percentiles) may increase by 69.5% and 99.8%, respectively, under a future scenario of 1  ° C increase in temperature. This increase in intensity resembles the increase in intensity observed between 1971–1990 and 1991–2010. The amplified runoff response can be related to the limited catchment storage capacity being preoccupied by rainfall extremes. The quantified temperature effect on rainfall and runoff intensification can be a strong basis for designing scenarios, confirming and fusing GCMs’ results. In addition, the runoff amplification should be a warning for other regions with significant rainfall intensification. Appropriate strategies are indispensable and urgently needed to maintain and protect the development of societies. (paper)

  14. Municipal Energy Planning under Conditions of Globalization: Imperatives and Objectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horban Vasylyna B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals the importance of energy planning for local authorities in the path of achieving the goals of sustainable development. The quintessence of energy planning in territorial communities of Ukraine and Europe has been outlined from the perspective of analyzing the infrastructure sectors of the municipal economy. The article is based on observing certain international methodologies related to local energy and climate planning. The evolution of Covenant of Mayors initiative is briefly described with a focus on its intensive expanding in terms of energy and climate issues. The experience in the development of municipal sustainable energy and climate action plans in European countries and Ukraine is studied. A survey of empirical data on the consumption of fuel and energy resources and greenhouse gas emissions in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries is conducted. The European methodological guidelines on the subject under study are highlighted based on the key policy documents. A few practical examples of Ukrainian and European cities are presented in order to illustrate possible actions corresponding to the defined problem. A systematic framework is proposed to describe the various and complex aspects of energy planning in cities with regard to rational implementation of energy efficient measures. The innovative mechanisms, main barriers and opportunities for the effective implementation of energy efficient projects in territorial communities of Ukraine and European countries are revealed. It is substantiated that under the current conditions of globalization, using project-oriented paradigm, municipal energy planning instruments become key motivational factors for development sustainable energy policy.

  15. Changes in tropical precipitation cluster size distributions under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Quinn, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a tropical storm or other precipitation feature (contiguous clusters of precipitation exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance. To establish baseline behavior in current climate, the probability distribution of cluster sizes from multiple satellite retrievals and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis is compared to those from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM-360 and -180). With the caveat that a minimum rain rate threshold is important in the models (which tend to overproduce low rain rates), the models agree well with observations in leading properties. In particular, scale-free power law ranges in which the probability drops slowly with increasing cluster size are well modeled, followed by a rapid drop in probability of the largest clusters above a cutoff scale. Under the RCP 8.5 global warming scenario, the models indicate substantial increases in probability (up to an order of magnitude) of the largest clusters by the end of century. For models with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial spread on when these probability increases for the largest precipitation clusters should be detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only in the second half of the century. Examination of NCEP reanalysis and SSMI/SSMIS series of satellite retrievals from 1979 to present does not yield reliable evidence of trends at this time. The results suggest improvements in inter-satellite calibration of the SSMI/SSMIS retrievals could aid future detection.

  16. Khakasses under the conditions of globalization: mental deformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa V. Anzhiganova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the deformations in the mentality of the Khakas, a Turkic-speaking ethnos of South Siberia. The authors understand mentality as an internally consistent mode of a people’s existence for the sake of survival of the ethnos as a whole by means of organizing knowledge into an ethnic worldview; through the creation of a stable hierarchy of ethnically articulated needs, interests and values; through a system of auto- and heterostereotypes; and by developing sustainable forms of behavior in various situations. Due to both external and internal impact, the mentality, a historically stable phenomenon, can suffer deformations. We understand these as a change in the basic elements of the mentality (needs, interests, values leading to reversible or irreversible transformations for the people. To document the mental deformations among the Khakass, the article compares traditional ethnic values with modern ones. The comparison makes use of two studies of values: an interdisciplinary study of the traditional outlook of the ethnos conducted in mid-1990s, an a sociological survey held in 2015. The analysis revealed that the hierarchy of basic traditional values, such as "native land", "Khakass people", "family" preserves its importance for ethnic actors as a resource for the preservation and development of the ethnos even under the conditions of globalization. However, the sociological survey recorded a change in the configuration of the entire value system among the Khakass people. “Family" as a value moves upfront, which follows the general historical pattern: an ethnos in a state of crisis returns to the basic, time-tested social institutions (family, clan. The latter are called upon to preserve the ethnos as a biopsychosocial community.

  17. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Admin

    and J Laurie Snell, Random Walks and Electric Networks, Mathematical Association of America, Oberlin, OH,. 1984. The book is available on the web as a pdf file at: http://math.dartmouth.edu/~doyle docs/walks/walks.pdf. [3] This interesting topic does not seem to have been explored extensively. A good discussion is ...

  18. Adobe Acrobat X PDF Bible

    CERN Document Server

    Padova, Ted

    2011-01-01

    The classic Acrobat and PDF reference, updated to cover the latest release. Consistently the most authoritative and comprehensive resource on Acrobat and PDF format, this standard reference returns with in-depth coverage of the newest version of Acrobat. Written by bestselling author Ted Padova, this book is packed with real-world insights and techniques gained from Padova's daily use of Acrobat and PDF under deadline constraints. You'll discover everything there is to know about using Acrobat and PDF for print prepress, the Internet, CD-ROMs, and other forms of media.: Popular author Ted Pado

  19. Global projections of changing risks of flood under the global warming simulated by MIROC GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2008-12-01

    Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (T106; about 1.1-degree) general circulation model (GCM) was used to investigate future projections of population changes under risks of more frequent flooding. A statistically significant increase or decrease in flood frequency was not predicted in the 20th century, and they are first appeared around the middle of the 21st century in 21 of 30 large global rivers. Statistics of world disasters indicated that the mean population impacted by flood disasters from 1991 to 2000 was 1.45 billion (2.5% of total population). The simulated global mean population which has affected by daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood (defined using daily discharge from 1901 to 2000) was about 0.51 billion (0.9% of total population) for 1991-2000, while for 2091-2100 this increases to 6.96 billion (9.5% of total population). Minimum of flood-affected population after the middle of the 21st century becomes higher than the maximum of flood-affected population in the 20th century. Annual fluctuation of the recorded flood-affected population was higher than that estimated using the modeled 20C 100-year flood. It is therefore important to show ranges of the flood-affected population in the model simulation using a statistical method, taking into account years when floods are concentrated in high- populated regions and years when most floods occurred in low-populated regions. Statistical analysis using the Monte Carlo approach revealed that the population experiencing daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood from 2091 to 2100 is in the top 35% of the ranges of possible number of populations (sum of population in regions that were randomly selected from global land of the same area as the regions with flood discharge), while that in 1991-2000 was below 30% of the probable population sets. This result indicates that future flood increases will be more common in regions with high population densities.

  20. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  1. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2012-08-11

    Aug 11, 2012 ... The oceans cover 70% of the planet's surface, and their planktonic inhabitants generate about half the global primary production, thereby playing a key role in modulating planetary climate via the carbon cycle. The ocean biota have been under scientific scrutiny for well over a century, and yet our ...

  2. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Admin

    interesting vortex structure develops soon, as the water drains out. The vortex is a ordered dy amic ... thermodynamics globally. e should consider the bathtub and the drainage or sewer system together. Under the ..... the horizontal temperature variation, and the vertical temperature variation in the typical Rayleigh-Benard ...

  3. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Benefitted from systematic device engi- neering and continuous material innovation, a state of the art. DSSC with a ruthenium sensitizer has achieved a validated efficiency of 11·1% (Chiba et al 2006) measured under the air mass 1·5 global (AM1·5G) conditions. In view of the limited ruthenium resource and the heavy-metal ...

  4. Reflection on Multicultural Education under the Background of Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Lihua

    2013-01-01

    As one of the development trends in world education, multicultural education has been confronted with a lot of difficulties in the globalization tide that becomes more and more open. On the basis of making an analysis of the background and connotation of generation of multicultural education, this paper reflects on multicultural education in…

  5. Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.T.H.; Franssen, W.H.P.; Yearsley, J.R.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for

  6. Divergent pheromone-mediated insect behaviour under global atmospheric change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edward B. Mondor; Michelle N. Tremblay; Caroline S. Awmack; Richard L. Lindroth

    2004-01-01

    While the effects of global atmospheric changes on vegetation and resulting insect populations('bottom-up interactions') are being increasingly studied, how these gases modify interactions among insects and their natural enemies ('top-down interactions') is less clear. As natural enemy efficacy is governed largely by behavioural mechanisms, altered...

  7. Global modelling of river water quality under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Franssen, Wietse H. P.; Yearsley, John R.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will pose challenges on the quality of freshwater resources for human use and ecosystems for instance by changing the dilution capacity and by affecting the rate of chemical processes in rivers. Here we assess the impacts of climate change and induced streamflow changes on a selection of water quality parameters for river basins globally. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a newly developed global water quality module for salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand. The modelling framework was validated using observed records of streamflow, water temperature, chloride, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand for 1981-2010. VIC and the water quality module were then forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 to study water quality trends and identify critical regions (hotspots) of water quality deterioration for the 21st century.

  8. Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, R.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

  9. Globalization of the automobile industry: traditional locations under pressure?

    OpenAIRE

    Spatz, Julius; Nunnenkamp, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Even though the automobile industry is technologically advanced, the increasing integration of low-income countries into the global division of labor has put competitive pressure on traditional automobile producing countries. New end-producers emerged in Asia, Latin America as well as Southern and Central Europe. In addition, the automobile industries of Germany, Japan and the United States engaged in outsourcing of relatively labor intensive segments of the value chain, especially on a regio...

  10. AREAS OF RUSSIAN CONSUMER MARKET TRANSNATIONALIZATION UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Snimschikova I. V.; Lazgiev M. M.

    2015-01-01

    In the article, transnationalization is considered as an objective factor of development in the context of globalization and the main areas of transnational corporations’ penetration in the Russian consumer market are identified. The Russian market is significantly attractive for commodity and food transnational corporations. The main objective of the majority of TNCs is the introduction and expansion to the markets in order to trade goods, produced in the third countries. Investment is prima...

  11. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  12. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  13. THE ROMANIAN CONSUMER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SAVU MIHAELA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available At present, consumers focus on meeting their higher needs, as opposed to previously meeting the base ones. However this trend is not among priorities for the Romanian consumer. He/she uses almost 43% of the total consumption expenditures for the purchase of food, being restricted in his/her choices by the income and the price of products. The food products analysed in the period 2001 – 2012 have an upward trend, but with no substantial differences. The only product category that has a downward trend is represented by wine and wine products. Consumption in Romania was negatively influenced by the effects of the global crisis for the products analysed, except for meat and meat products. Despite the fact that we are far from the average annual meat consumption, however, the highest quantity recorded in our country was in 2009.

  14. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

    2017-01-01

    Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

  15. Mediterranean Agricultural Soil Conservation under global Change: The MASCC project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raclot, Damien; Ciampalini, Rossano

    2017-04-01

    The MASCC project (2016-2019, http://mascc-project.org) aims to address mitigation and adaptation strategies to global change by assessing current and future development of Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability to erosion in relation to projected land use, agricultural practices and climate change. It targets to i) assess the similarities/dissimilarities in dominant factors affecting the current Mediterranean agricultural soil vulnerability by exploring a wide range of Mediterranean contexts; ii) improve the ability to evaluate the impact of extreme events on both the current and projected agricultural soil vulnerability and the sediment delivery at catchment outlet; iii) evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of agricultural production to a combination of potential changes in a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, iv) and provide guidelines on sustainable agricultural conservation strategies adapted to each specific agro-ecosystem and taking into consideration both on- and off-site erosion effects and socio-economics issues. To achieve these objectives, the MASCC project consortium gather researchers from six Mediterranean countries (France, Morocco, Tunisia, Italy, Spain and Portugal) which monitor mid- to long-term environmental catchments and benefit from mutual knowledge created from previous projects and network. The major assets for MASCC are: i) the availability of an unrivalled database on catchment soil erosion and innovative agricultural practices comprising a wide range of Mediterranean contexts, ii) the capacity to better evaluate the impact of extreme events on soil erosion, iii) the expert knowledge of the LANDSOIL model, a catchment-scale integrated approach of the soil-landscape system that enables to simulate both the sediment fluxes at the catchment outlet and the intra-catchment soil evolving properties and iv) the multi-disciplinarity of the involved researchers with an international reputation in the fields of soil science

  16. Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

    2013-12-01

    Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

  17. Provider Behavior Under Global Budgeting and Policy Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Kai Chang MD, PhD

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Third-party payer systems are consistently associated with health care cost escalation. Taiwan’s single-payer, universal coverage National Health Insurance (NHI adopted global budgeting (GB to achieve cost control. This study captures ophthalmologists’ response to GB, specifically service volume changes and service substitution between low-revenue and high-revenue services following GB implementation, the subsequent Bureau of NHI policy response, and the policy impact. De-identified eye clinic claims data for the years 2000, 2005, and 2007 were analyzed to study the changes in Simple Claim Form (SCF claims versus Special Case Claims (SCCs. The 3 study years represent the pre-GB period, post-GB but prior to region-wise service cap implementation period, and the post-service cap period, respectively. Repeated measures multilevel regression analysis was used to study the changes adjusting for clinic characteristics and competition within each health care market. SCF service volume (low-revenue, fixed-price patient visits remained constant throughout the study period, but SCCs (covering services involving variable provider effort and resource use with flexibility for discretionary billing increased in 2005 with no further change in 2007. The latter is attributable to a 30% cap negotiated by the NHI Bureau with the ophthalmology association and enforced by the association. This study demonstrates that GB deployed with ongoing monitoring and timely policy responses that are designed in collaboration with professional stakeholders can contain costs in a health insurance–financed health care system.

  18. Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2017-04-01

    Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

  19. CORPORATE COMMUNICATION BIASES IN THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT UNDER GLOBALIZATION TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramona-Elena, Chiţu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the private sector, employers’ requirements of specific communication skills, the economic field division into numberless branches of activity – finance and banks, management, human resources, accounting, international relations, tourism – the presence of a certain literature in the field by means of translations, all such aspects represent grounded reasons for the existence of a global economic vocabulary in the Romanian language. Finding its origins in the structuralism philosophic principles and associated with the structuralism linguistic trends, economic language’s globalisation becomes obvious nowadays through the occurrence of a large number of linguistic borrowings. Classified into either needless or necessary borrowed lexical units, lexical units borrowed and completely or at all assimilated in the target language, such borrowings lay the foundation of what specialists in the field call corporate language. Considering that the total or partial lack of knowledge on such language can become a real barrier in achieving communication, this study aims at analysing the level to which such words are known by the employees in the business environments involved in economic international partnerships and in multinational organisations.

  20. Trade networks evolution under the conditions of stock market globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kopylova Olga Volodymyrivna

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The modern perception of the stock market in terms of information technologies rapid development and under the institutionalists influence has been significantly modified and becomes multifaceted. It was detected that the main function of the market is activated, information asymmetry is minimized and more advanced financial architecture space is formed through trade networks. Formation of the modern trade networks has started on the basis of the old infrastructure, that had the highest tendency to self-organization and adaptation. The proposed architecture of trade networks of the stock market has a very clear vector of subordination – from top to bottom and has a number of positive points.

  1. Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikai Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation has been considered to be a critical water source for both human livelihoods and ecosystems in Central Asia. Using observational data and gridded datasets, we studied the regional and seasonal differences of precipitation climate characteristics and variations in precipitation over Central Asia. Using observational data obtained from the China Meteorological Administration, Global Historical Climatology Network (V3.02, we divided Central Asia into four subregions (North, Center, Southwest, and Southeast based on the differences in seasonal cycles of precipitation. ‘Single peaks’ were detected as types of seasonal cycles over the North and the Southeast, while ‘two peaks’ was the type that occurred in the Southwest. For the Center, the zone of transition between the North and the Southwest, each monthly precipitation value was higher than the Southwest’s and less than the North’s. GPCC (R2 of 0.89, RMSE of 64.5 mm/year was proven to be the most suitable dataset of the four datasets (CRU, GPCC, MERRA, and TRMM to describe precipitation in Central Asia, based on validation against observational data, and used to detect the spatial and temporal trend of precipitation in Central Asia and four subregions during 1960–2013. No significant trends were observed for annual precipitation in Central Asia, while precipitation in winter displayed a significant increase (0.11 mm/year. Additionally, significantly increasing trends (0.16, 0.27, 0.13, and 0.13 mm/year were detected in spring, summer, autumn, and winter over the Southeast during 1960–2013.

  2. Regional to global changes in drought and implications for future changes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Kam, J.

    2012-12-01

    Drought can have large impacts on multiple sectors, including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, transport, industry and tourism. In extreme cases, regional drought can lead to food insecurity and famine, and in intensive agricultural regions, extend to global economic impacts in a connected world. Recent droughts globally have been severe and costly but whether they are becoming more frequent and severe, and the attribution of this, is a key question. Observational evidence at large scales, such as satellite remote sensing are often subject to short-term records and inhomogeneities, and ground based data are sparse in many regions. Reliance on model output is also subject to error and simplifications in the model physics that can, for example, amplify the impact of global warming on drought. This presentation will show the observational and model evidence for changes in drought, with a focus on the interplay between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand and its impact on the terrestrial water cycle and drought. We discuss the fidelity of climate models to reproduce our best estimates of drought variability and its drivers historically, and the implications of this on uncertainties in future projections of drought from CMIP5 models, and how this has changed since CMIP3.

  3. Changes in Large Precipitation Events Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J. D.; Sahany, S.; Stechmann, S. N.; Bernstein, D. N.

    2014-12-01

    Model-based studies have suggested that changes may occur in hydrologic variables associated with increased probability of high precipitation occurrences, such as the 95th percentile of daily precipitation intensity. It has been common to discuss changes in extreme events in terms of consequences of the shift of the mean of the distribution, or an increase in variance. Here we present a prototype for the behavior of changes in the distribution of precipitation event size, i.e., of the precipitation integrated from onset to termination of an event. It has been noted in observations that event size distributions exhibit a scale-free, approximately power-law range with a cutoff at large event sizes (Peters et al, 2010). A simple stochastic model for an atmospheric column moisture budget shows how this behavior arises and how the cutoff is controlled by the physical parameters of the system. A simple set of conditions implies that the frequency of the very largest events may be expected to exhibit disproportionate sensitivity to changes. Any increase in the variance of the moisture convergence, as is projected to occur in the warmer climate, is predicted to yield changes in the very largest event-size portion of the distribution. Precipitation event size distributions computed from high time-resolution output from the Community Earth System Model appear to fit this prototype well in current climate, consistent with the form of observed event size distributions. In an ensemble of 15 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for anthropogenic forcing increases, the very largest event portion of the distribution shows marked sensitivity, consistent with the simple prototype, with increases over most of the globe and strong regional increases. The theory suggests a set of conditions to evaluate for other climate quantities under which one should expect such sensitivity of probability of the very largest events.

  4. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in/jgenet/OnlineResources/91/e18.pdf. Zaganini R. L., Hashimoto D. T., Pereira L. H. G., Oliveira C., Mendonça F. F., Foresti F. and Porto-Foresti F. 2012 Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in the Neotropical fish Astyanax ...

  5. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Scholars and Post-Doctoral Fellows (PDF), who work in topology and related areas also to apply. The course consists lectures on the following topics: (a) topology of metric spaces, (b) basic proper- ties of topological spaces, (c) separation axioms and metrization theorems, (d) fundamental groups,. (e) covering spaces and ...

  6. Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Verdecchia, Marco; Giorgi, Filippo; Colaiuda, Valentina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Lombardi, Annalina

    2014-09-15

    The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sandeep M., Sun F., Liu F., Li J., David P. B. and Yue G. H. 2012 Novel polymorphic microsatellites from Florida red tilapia and cross- species amplification in Mozambique and Nile tilapia. J. Genet. 91, e97–e99. Online only: http://www.ias.ac.in/jgenet/OnlineResources/. 91/e97.pdf. Xin C., Yu D., Peng J., Hu H., Xing Y. and ...

  8. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  9. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ˜50 y to ˜20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ˜60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  10. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  11. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  12. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

    2014-05-01

    Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water

  13. THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS’ BEHAVIOUR UNDER THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PIRTEA MARILEN

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available On the subject of financial globalization a lot of literature has been written, annalyzing all sorts of effects ithad. Still, the changes induced by globalization at the level of the financial markets are not always clear. The veritableflooding of capitals, constantly moving, created a continuous game of investment opportunities, of arbitrationpossibilities and funding sources, made institutional investors adopt various attitudes, the role of institutional investorsin the activation of capital markets being sustained by the financial globalization and the extension of multinationalfinancial groups, on one side, and by the increased performance of the share and bond markets, on the other side.By the present paper, we propose to underline the behaviour of the main institutional investors (mutual funds,pension funds and hedge funds under the impact of the current global financial crisis, the modifications whichintervened in asset assignment and investment relocation, showing that the instability generated in the global financialsystem had immediate effects on all the portfolios of institutional investors, regardless of their classificationcategory.Under conditions of capital flow increase, adjusted by the global financial crisis, the presented analysis andempirical proofs show a tendency of institutional investors’ asset reallocation on developed markets and thewithdrawal from the emergent ones.

  14. Environmental and radiological remediation under Canada's global partnership program 2004-11 - 59185

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washer, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    Following the '911' attack on the USA in 2001 the international community under Canada's G8 leadership established a $20 billion Global Partnership initiative in 2002 to collaboratively address threats to global security posed by the proliferation and potential terrorist use of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (WMMD) and related materials and knowledge. This major international initiative addressed four priority areas: (1) Chemical Weapon Destruction (2) Nuclear powered submarine eliminations (3) Nuclear and radiological security; and (4) Employment for former weapon scientists. Additionally the initiative has addressed Biological Non- Proliferation. Canada's execution of all these program areas has resulted in substantial environmental benefits aside from the eradication and securing of WMMD. This paper reviews the environmental and radiological remediation achievements of the four primary Global Partnership program areas addressed under Canadian funding 2004 through 2011. (author)

  15. Prerequisites for Forming the Institutional Concept of the National Economy Competitiveness under Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaremenko Oleh L.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article attempts to prove that under conditions of globalization there have developed objective and subjective prerequisites for forming the institutional concept of the national economy. The objective prerequisites are the newest information and communication technologies, post-industrial trends and market transformation of civilization intensified by globalization. Under such conditions instability and volatility of the institutional environment both within national economies and at the international level are observed. The aggravation of the global competition between national economies actualizes the role of such institutional factors as political system, property, public administration, economic organization, culture, etc. The subjective prerequisites are related to the fact that the institutional economic theory is currently one of the leading trends in the modern world and Ukrainian economic thought. Interest in it is explained not only by the fact that it overcomes the limitations of a number of prerequisites for the mainstream, but also because it allows considering the modern economic processes in complex

  16. Retrospective analysis of "new" flame retardants in the global atmosphere under the GAPS Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sum Chi; Sverko, Ed; Harner, Tom; Pozo, Karla; Barresi, Enzo; Schachtschneider, JoAnne; Zaruk, Donna; DeJong, Maryl; Narayan, Julie

    2016-10-01

    A retrospective analysis was conducted on air samples that were collected in 2005 under the Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling (GAPS) Network around the time period when the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants came into force. Results are presented for several new flame retardants, including hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), which was recently listed under the Convention (2013). These results represent the first global-scale distributions in air for these compounds. The targeted compounds are shown to have unique global distributions in air, which highlights the challenges in understanding the sources and environmental fate of each chemical, and ultimately in their assessments as persistent organic pollutants. The study also demonstrates the feasibility of using the PUF disk passive air sampler to study these new flame retardants in air, many of which exist entirely in the particle-phase as demonstrated in this study using a KOA-based partitioning model. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A possible constraint on regional precipitation intensity changes under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gutowski, William J.; Kozak, K. A.; Arritt, R. W.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in daily precipitation versus intensity under a global warming scenario in two regional climate simulations of the United States show a well-recognized feature of more intense precipitation. More important, by resolving the precipitation intensity spectrum, the changes show a relatively...

  18. impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming

    OpenAIRE

    SAKALLI ABDULLA; DOSIO ALESSANDRO; CESCATTI ALESSANDRO

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on European ecosystems under a 2C global warming has been assessed in the framework of the FP7 project IMPACT2C. Results have been published on official IMPACT2C web-atlas, available here: https://www.atlas.impact2c.eu/en/?no_popup=True

  19. Preparedness Formation of the Future Vocational Education Teachers to Occupational Adaptation under Conditions of Globalization Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sushentseva, Liliya

    2014-01-01

    The problem of the preparedness formation of future teachers of vocational training to the professional adaptation under conditions of globalization processes in society is considered. The analysis of scientific and educational literature devoted to the study of occupational adaptation and preparedness formation of specialists to it is carried…

  20. Global SUMOylation is a Molecular Mechanism Underlying Hypothermia-induced Ischemic Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang-ja eLee

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The molecular mechanisms underlying hypothermic neuroprotection have yet to be fully elucidated. Herein we demonstrate that global SUMOylation, a form of post-translational modification with the Small Ubiquitin-like MOdifer, participates in the multimodal molecular induction of hypothermia-induced ischemic tolerance. Mild (32°C to moderate (28°C hypothermic treatment(s during OGD (oxygen-glucose-deprivation or ROG (restoration of oxygen/glucose increased global SUMO-conjugation levels and protected cells (both SHSY5Y and E18 rat cortical neurons from OGD and ROG-induced cell death. Hypothermic exposure either before or after permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (pMCAO surgery in wild type mice increased global SUMO-conjugation levels in the brain and in so doing protected these animals from pMCAO-induced ischemic damage. Of note, hypothermic exposure did not provide an additional increase in protection from pMCAO-induced ischemic brain damage in Ubc9 transgenic mice, which overexpress the sole E2 SUMO conjugating enzyme and thereby display elevated basal levels of global SUMOylation under normothermic conditions. Such evidence suggests that increases in global SUMOylation are critical and may account for a substantial part of the observed increase in cellular tolerance to brain ischemia caused via hypothermia.

  1. Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lenton

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1 over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5 and low (RCP2.6 emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ∼ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 % and aragonite saturation state (170 %. The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020–2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

  2. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The special AT-rich DNA-binding protein 1 (SATB1) is a matrix attachment region (MAR)-binding protein that acts as a global repressor ... partners on the global gene regulation by SATB1, transcripts from the induced and uninduced clones were subjected to gene .... fluorescent labelling of cDNA using monofunctional NHS.

  3. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    oscillation spectrum. Solar oscillations are the result of the excitation of global modes by convective ..... tributed to the refinement of global parameters of stars and provided the mode identification; (4) large ...... Astronomy and Astrophysics Library, ISBN 978-1-4020-5178-4, Springer Science, Business. Media B.V.. Althaus ...

  4. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank J.; Raes, Frank; Krol, Maarten C.; Emberson, Lisa; Cofala, Janusz

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic "current legislation (CLE) scenario", i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia. Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of "western" crop exposure-response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative. Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2-6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1-2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat). Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic

  5. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  6. Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

    2017-10-01

    Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

  7. Logistics Concepts at the Industrial Enterprise under Conditions of the Globalization of Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trushkina Nataliia V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to assess the dynamics of indicators of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods and services; conduct a comparative analysis of logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets; determine the ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises. The study analyzes the dynamics of volumes of exports–imports of goods and transport services in Ukraine; freight traffic by mode of transport; export, import and transit of goods; foreign direct investment from countries of the world in the Ukrainian economy. Modern information systems and logistics concepts used at industrial enterprises under conditions of the globalization of markets are considered. The ways to improve the management of international production and distribution activities of industrial enterprises are defined and systematized. Prospects for further research in this direction are the development of proposals for information support of providing services for customers of the industrial enterprise.

  8. Globally COnstrained Local Function Approximation via Hierarchical Modelling, a Framework for System Modelling under Partial Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman

    2000-01-01

    be obtained. This paper presents a new approach for system modelling under partial (global) information (or the so called Gray-box modelling) that seeks to perserve the benefits of the global as well as local methodologies sithin a unified framework. While the proposed technique relies on local approximations......Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....

  9. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  10. Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

    2018-02-01

    Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

  11. A new conjugate gradient method and its global convergence under the exact line search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omer, Osman; Rivaie, Mohd; Mamat, Mustafa; Abdalla, Awad

    2014-12-01

    The conjugate gradient methods are numerously used for solving nonlinear unconstrained optimization problems, especially of large scale. Their wide applications are due to their simplicity and low memory requirement. To analyze conjugate gradient methods, two types of line searches are used; exact and inexact. In this paper, we present a new method of nonlinear conjugate gradient methods under the exact line search. The theoretical analysis shows that the new method generates a descent direction in each iteration and globally convergent under the exact line search. Moreover, numerical experiments based on comparing the new method with other well known conjugate gradient methods show that the new is efficient for some unconstrained optimization problems.

  12. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  13. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2017-10-01

    Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

  14. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    over the plains of northern India that has been noticed in several global and regional climate models. To ... pared to global climate modeling with its pres- .... Clay. 2.48E+06. 6.7E-7. 1.63E+06. 1.1E-7. Peat. 2.59E+06. 6.5E-7. 0.58E+06. 1.03E-7 observational data CRU (Brohan et al. 2006; ver- sion CRUv3.1) show a strong ...

  15. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Warren, Rachel; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries. (paper)

  16. Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadieh, Behzad; Krakauer, Nir Y.

    2017-11-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing

  17. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2007-08-02

    Aug 2, 2007 ... in Ghana, Cameroon and Gabon (Karikari,. 1980). In some areas such as Asia, they are the. 53. Journal of Science and Technology, Volume 27 no. 2, August, 2007. Optimal rice/colocasia cropping systems. Kassim et. al. PDF Created with deskPDF PDF Writer - Trial :: http://www.docudesk.com ...

  18. Oligarchy versus Democracy and Regulation versus Deregulation under the Globalization Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru-Alexandru BODISLAV

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available On capitalism that is created under the pressure of globalization there are created many economic systems that derived into a new model: the asymmetric model created from propriety rights’ perspective and the influence of interest groups, an asymmetric model that is called “oligarchy”(1. For a better understanding of oligarchy we consider an oligarchic society, where the political power is in the hands of the producers of goods, that tend to protect their propriety rights, but this way they create entry barriers, destroying the propriety rights of future potential producers. Capitalism was and is stressed by the (deregulation phenomena created by the competition which is shaped through globalization. With ease we can go from (deregulating to oligarchic pressure, which from the globalization’s perspective can give birth to the lagging or decoupling in the global economic system. This paper researches these two cases and inserts them into the global framework to result the evolution of society’s members’ welfare.

  19. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  20. Tracking the global maximum power point of PV arrays under partial shading conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennich, Meryem

    This thesis presents the theoretical and simulation studies of the global maximum power point tracking (MPPT) for photovoltaic systems under partial shading. The main goal is to track the maximum power point of the photovoltaic module so that the maximum possible power can be extracted from the photovoltaic panels. When several panels are connected in series with some of them shaded partially either due to clouds or shadows from neighboring buildings, several local maxima appear in the power vs. voltage curve. A power increment based MPPT algorithm is effective in identifying the global maximum from the several local maxima. Several existing MPPT algorithms are explored and the state-of-the-art power increment method is simulated and tested for various partial shading conditions. The current-voltage and power-voltage characteristics of the PV model are studied under different partial shading conditions, along with five different cases demonstrating how the MPPT algorithm performs when shading switches from one state to another. Each case is supplemented with simulation results. The method of tracking the Global MPP is based on controlling the DC-DC converter connected to the output of the PV array. A complete system simulation including the PV array, the direct current to direct current (DC-DC) converter and the MPPT is presented and tested using MATLAB software. The simulation results show that the MPPT algorithm works very well with the buck converter, while the boost converter needs further changes and implementation.

  1. Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

    2014-01-01

    Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138

  2. Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

  3. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  4. Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhekke, Maarten C.; Rebel, Karin T.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Smith, Benjamin; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2017-12-01

    To study global nitrogen (N) leaching from natural ecosystems under changing N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2, we performed a factorial model experiment for the period 1901-2006 with the N-enabled global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). In eight global simulations, we used either the true transient time series of N deposition, climate, and atmospheric CO2 as input or kept combinations of these drivers constant at initial values. The results show that N deposition is globally the strongest driver of simulated N leaching, individually causing an increase of 88 % by 1997-2006 relative to pre-industrial conditions. Climate change led globally to a 31 % increase in N leaching, but the size and direction of change varied among global regions: leaching generally increased in regions with high soil organic carbon storage and high initial N status, and decreased in regions with a positive trend in vegetation productivity or decreasing precipitation. Rising atmospheric CO2 generally caused decreased N leaching (33 % globally), with strongest effects in regions with high productivity and N availability. All drivers combined resulted in a rise of N leaching by 73 % with strongest increases in Europe, eastern North America and South-East Asia, where N deposition rates are highest. Decreases in N leaching were predicted for the Amazon and northern India. We further found that N loss by fire regionally is a large term in the N budget, associated with lower N leaching, particularly in semi-arid biomes. Predicted global N leaching from natural lands rose from 13.6 Tg N yr-1 in 1901-1911 to 18.5 Tg N yr-1 in 1997-2006, accounting for reductions of natural land cover. Ecosystem N status (quantified as the reduction of vegetation productivity due to N limitation) shows a similar positive temporal trend but large spatial variability. Interestingly, this variability is more strongly related to vegetation type than N input

  5. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Assumption-commitment; automata theory; concurrency theory; verification; decomposition. 1. ... eral and can be applied in various ways to prove global system properties (Jones 1983;. Barringer et al 1984; ... modules as open systems, systems that can potentially be embedded in any environment. On the other hand, ...

  6. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the instructions for conducting much of the business of life. Living organisms reproduce in two different ways: with or .... 360. (1991). V H Heywood. Global Biodi- versity. Assessment. Published for the United. Nations Environment. Programme. Cambridge. University Press, Cam- bridge, pp.1140. (1995). SERIES I ARTICLE.

  7. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Is global warming for real? Deepanjan Majumdar describes the anomalies in data recordings so far. The properties of isometries and their consequences continue as the theme for S Shirali's. Part 2 on symmetry. V U Reddy completes the story of the success of communications engineer- ing in realizing voice-band modems ...

  8. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2011-12-08

    Dec 8, 2011 ... 3BenXi Mental Hospital, Digong Road, Benxi 117000, People's Republic of China. 4Dalian Seventh People's ... Schizophrenia is a common mental disorder with a global incidence of 1% (Schultz and ..... tute of Mental Health, Dalian Seventh People's Hospital, FuShun. Coal-Mine Brain Hospital) for their ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in all aspects of production, visibility and dissemination. Facilities required for rapid publication of research from members of an expanding fraternity together with a global reach and impact of published papers has been enabled with the use of an online submission and peer review management system and the Academy's.

  10. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Here we learn at last what the birds and bees are good at: spotting and homing in on global minima! but yet perceive a situation differently; meaning that their view pOints are incommensurable. Thus, from among the competing paradigms there emerges a victor that now dons the robe of the dominant paradigm within the ...

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    incomplete combustion of carbon compounds. It is also the key ingredient of the industrially important 'water gas'. Carbon diox- ide, present in larger amounts in the atmosphere, is useful as dry ice and provides the fizz in soft drinks. It is also the prime suspect in the global warming process caused by the greenhouse effect.

  12. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the Energy Management Strategy which ESS Scandinavia would implement if Lund were to be the eventual chosen site. This will be set into the context of the political iniatives to mitigate the effects of global warming. Keywords. Neutron scattering; spallation neutron sources. PACS Nos 78.70.Nx; 29.25.Dz; 61.12.-q. 890.

  13. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    warming has caused sea temperatures to rise. The vast ecosystem of plant and animal life supported by the reefs is dying with them. Global warming is also causing the polar ice-caps to melt and further raising the sea level. This spells doom for many island nations (e.g., Maldives) and coastal countries such as Bangladesh ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Malaria continues to be a global health challenge. More number of people die of malaria than any other single infectious disease world over. While the occurrence of malaria is mainly localized to tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, the numbers of people infected with malaria are very large. Recent WHO survey ...

  15. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Hulme P. E. 2009 Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization. J. Appl. Ecol. 46,. 10–18. Kalinowski S. T., Taper M. L. and Marshall T. C 2007 Revising how the computer program CERVUS accommodates genotyping error increases success in paternity assignment. Mol. Ecol.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-04-29

    Apr 29, 2014 ... Isbell FI 2010 Causes and consequences of changing biodiversity. Nature Edu. Knowl. 1 11. Jaramillo C, Ochoa D, Contreras L, Pagani M, Carvajal-Ortiz H, Pratt LM, Krishnan S, Cardona A, Romero M, et al. 2010 Effects of rapid global warming at the paleocene-eocene boundary on neotropical vegetation.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    WINTEC

    of chemical potential (μ), electronegativity, and hard- ness (η),6–8 .... however, be studied using the global descriptors of reactivity. For this, appropriate local descriptors need to be defined. An appropriate definition of local softness s(r) is given by11 .... of the systems, the molecular electrophilic power has been calculated.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    By employing linear matrix inequality and Lyapunov stability theory, the global synchronization conditions on hybrid neural networks with coupling ... Networks such as neural networks, communication transmission networks, social rela- tionship networks etc. are considered as the real-world systems. Due to the limited.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    in a randomized version of the network, where all in and out degrees are maintained, the network kept globally ... has a minimum below zero for some rather short distance l = 2 to l = 3, whereas it becomes positive for l > 3. ... served degree distribution. σr is the standard deviation of the correspond- ing Ir, sampled over 100 ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    tion by stars (celestial navigation) is feasible un- der such conditions. But the inertial navigation system (INS) is the preferred choice. In recent times, a navigational instrument based on radio communication with specially designed satellites in low Earth orbits called the global positioning system (GPS) has become popular.

  1. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Our Shrinking Ozone Layer. Global Perspectives and Remedial Measures. Shashi K Pathak and Nigel J Mason. RESEARCH NEWS. Madhu Sudan Receives Nevanlinna Prize. Meena Mahajan and Priti Shankar. REFLECTIONS. Books I Remember. Dr K S Krishnan. Front Cover. Back Cover. Crystal structure of diamond.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    first Indian to hold this position, she takes head on the challenge of formulating policies for creating a healthier world. A paedia- trician and a globally recognized researcher on rampant diseases such as tuberculosis and HIV, she talks to Subhadra Menon about her journey and the challenges in combatting these diseases.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    long flights particularly of military transports. This is called `celestial navigation'. Over time, there have been other aids to navigation based on radio transmission from ground stations specifically designed for naviga- tional purposes. A recent addition to navigational in- struments is the Global Positioning System (GPS) which.

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Akshinthala K S K Prasad

    2018-01-18

    Jan 18, 2018 ... Thalassiosira mala (Bacillariophyta), a potentially harmful, marine diatom from Chilka Lake and other coastal localities of Odisha, India: Nomenclature, frustule morphology and global biogeography. AKSHINTHALA KSKPRASAD. 1*, JAMES A NIENOW. 2 and ERIC LOCHNER. 3. 1Department of Biological ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-12-27

    Dec 27, 2016 ... through environmental contamination or occupational use. A positive association between occupational exposure to complex pesticide mixtures and the ... total global consumption with 25% of the total agricultural land coverage. Among different classes of chemicals, organ- ochlorine pesticides constitute ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Mandal

    2018-02-07

    Feb 7, 2018 ... Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Global Institute of Management and Technology,. Krishna Nagar 741102, India ..... The use of chemical or olfactory cues is central to communication between ...... assumed that each of the total N neurons in the output unit ei t ю Dt р. Ю is a gene ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    what is going on in the world of ants but is also useful in the world of robotics. We conclude ., from his work that globally optimal solutions for navigation problems can be .... of the endogenous clock. Theparamountques- tions are - how does the clock itself run, how is it reset, and how does the output regulate cell ular acti vi ...

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    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    Lung cancer is considered to be the most common malignancy and a leading cause of death globally. Despite significant advances made during the past several decades in the treatment of lung cancer, the overall 5-year survival rate of patients is still low (Branko 2007). Dysregulation of apoptosis is a common feature of.

  9. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    them from our diet. At that time the global regulation of entire metabolic networks had not been clarified in a quantitative sense. Everyone seemed to take it for granted that there must be a logical reason behind the existence in E.coli for instance of three aspartokinases, each of them being regulated, meaning inhibited.

  10. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of simultaneous (parallel), mutually irreducible and autonomous decoherence processes. Besides the standard Brownian particle, we show that there is at least another system undergoing the dynam- ics described by the QBM model. We do this by selecting the two mutually irreducible, global structures (decompositions ...

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ML

    than global models which lead to Q values larger than 1.5 MeV and therefore to much shorter half-lives. In the case of microscopic calculations, the results depend strongly on the parametrization of the Skyrme interaction. The basic physics motivation in the search for new magic numbers and the associated test.

  12. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    of epistemic claims makes it a cognitive event. Thus, a controversy embodies an entire range of forces that propel .... argument) and Agassiz's global “Ice Age” theory was suspect to Lyell and other uniformitarian geologists of ..... in relegating the study of discovery processes to the sociology and psychology of knowledge.

  13. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    Malaria continues to be a global health challenge. More number of people die of malaria than ... awareness about persistence of these agents in the food chain and resulting danger to human health. The result of the above mentioned ... nations, it is on a road to fast economic growth. The country is witnessing growth of a ...

  14. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the environmental regimes change rapidly. Madhav Gadgil. Diversity of life is unevenly distributed over the surface of the earth; especially rich are the tropics, ..... Suggested Reading. • V H Heywood (Ed.) Global Biodiversity Assessment. United Nations. Environment Programme. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. pp.

  15. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a web of syntactic interactions (viewing documents) to a 'semantic web' of transactions. V Rajaraman tells us how this evolution will help electronic data interchange in e-commerce. Is global warming for real? Deepanjan Majumdar describes the anomalies in data recordings so far. The properties of isometries and their ...

  16. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  17. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  19. Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Luo, Yong; Huang, Jianbin; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-04-01

    Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study, evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) with a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal resolution which were derived from EU WATCH project. A new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used to evaluate the GCMs. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves. Compared with the observations, the five GCMs and its Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristic of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.05 significant levels. Based on the projection data of five GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically. To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.77°C(2025), 2.63°C(2039), 3.39°C(2050), 3.97°C(2060), 4.82°C(2070), 5.47°C(2079) and 6.2°C(2089) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global

  20. The fragmentation instability of a black hole with f( R) global monopole under GUP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lingshen; Cheng, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    Having studied the fragmentation of the black holes containing f( R) global monopole under the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP), we show the influences from this kind of monopole, f( R) theory, and GUP on the evolution of black holes. We focus on the possibility that the black hole breaks into two parts by means of the second law of thermodynamics. We derive the entropies of the initial black hole and the broken parts while the generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is introduced. We find that the f( R) global monopole black hole keeps stable instead of splitting without the generalization because the entropy difference is negative. The fragmentation of the black hole will happen if the black hole entropies are limited by the GUP and the considerable deviation from the general relativity leads to the case that the mass of one fragmented black hole is smaller and the other one's mass is larger.

  1. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  2. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I-I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-05-18

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas.

  3. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

  4. A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

    2018-01-01

    In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing

  5. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-02-26

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  6. Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

    2016-01-01

    The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to

  7. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of global-scale deforestation: Radiative versus nonradia- tive processes; J. Climate 23 97–112. Gao W and Li B 1993 Wavelet analysis of coherent struc- tures at the atmosphere–forest interface; J. Appl. Meteo- rol. 32 1717–1725. Goetz S J, Fiske G J and Bunn A G 2006 Using satellite time-series data sets to analyze fire ...

  8. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Srimath

    core{halo con¯guration can have arbitrarily high values for the entropy. A ll this goes to show that the isother- m alsphere cannot be a global m axim um forthe entropy. (T his w as the caveat in the calculation w e perform ed to derive the isotherm al sphere equation; w e tacitly as- sum ed that the extrem um condition can be ...

  9. Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

    2014-01-01

    The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

  10. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tum quantum number and E is the energy of the level under consideration. The screening parameter σ½ is identified as accounting for the screening effect of electrons situated in orbits both external and internal to the one under consideration, while the parameter σ ¾ is interpreted as representing the screening effect of only ...

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Hence a conference was organized under the auspice of ISAMP, on 'Interaction of Lasers with Atoms,. Molecules and Clusters' at University of Hyderabad in January 2012. The con- ference was jointly organized by School of Physics, ACRHEM of University of. Hyderabad as well as TCIS Hyderabad, under the umbrella ...

  12. Structural Changes of International Trade Flows under the Impact of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Dachin

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Structural changes of international trade flows indicate modifications in competitiveness of countries, in terms of production, technological upgrading and exports under the pressure of globalization. The paper aims to point out sources of competitive advantages especially in manufacturing exports of different groups of countries. The focus is on the shifts in the structure of manufacturing in the European Union and their effects on international rankings in export performances. An important issue refers to the opportunities given by the enlargement of the European Union and their impact on EU trade structures.

  13. Spatio-temporal variations of vegetation indicators in Eastern Siberia under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlamova, Eugenia V.; Solovyev, Vladimir S.

    2017-11-01

    Study of spatio-temporal variations of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and phenological parameters of Eastern Siberia vegetation cover under global warming was carried out on AVHRR/NOAA data (1982-2014). Trend maps of NDVI and annual variations of phenological parameters and NDVI are analyzed. A method based on stable transition of air temperature through +5°C was used to estimate the beginning, end and the length of the growing season. Correlation between NDVI and phenological parameters, surface air temperature and precipitation are discussed.

  14. Expansion of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism under global environment change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, K.; D'Odorico, P.; Collins, S. L.; Carr, D.

    2016-12-01

    The abundance of plants with Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) has increased in many drylands worldwide. This is hypothesized to occur because CAM plants store water, take up CO2 at night, exhibit photosynthetic plasticity, and have high water use efficiency. The increased dominance of CAM plants, however, also depends on their competitive relationship with other functional groups, an aspect of CAM plant sensitivity to global environmental change that has remained largely understudied. Here, we investigated the response of CAM plants and their competitive relationships with C3 and C4 plants under global environmental change. We focused on two pairs of CAM and non-CAM species, namely Cylindropuntia imbricata (a constitutive CAM species) and Bouteloua eriopoda (C4 grass), which co-occur in desert grasslands in northern Mexico, and invasive Mesembryanthemum crystallinum (a facultative CAM species) and Bromus mollis (a C3 invasive grass), which coexist in California's coastal grasslands. A set of growth chamber experiments under altered CO2 and water conditions show that C. imbricata outcompeted B. eriopoda under drought conditions, while in well-watered conditions B. eriopoda was a stronger competitor for soil water than C. imbricata. Under drought conditions a more positive response to CO2 enrichment by C. imbricata indirectly disfavored B. eriopoda, which suggests that interspecific competition can outweigh the favorable direct effect of CO2 enrichment on plant growth. A set of greenhouse experiments under water, N, and soil salinity manipulations showed that drought, N deposition, and/or increased soil salinity served as important drivers for success of M. crystallinum invasion, while B. mollis exerted strong competitive effects on M. crystallinum for light and soil nutrients in well-watered conditions. M. crystallinum switched from C3 photosynthesis to CAM photosynthesis as an adaptive strategy in response to moderate intensity of competition from B. mollis, in

  15. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  16. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

  17. Effective Local-Global Upscaling of Fractured Reservoirs under Discrete Fractured Discretization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junchao Li

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The subsurface flow in fractured reservoirs is strongly affected by the distribution of fracture networks. Discrete fracture models, which represent all fractures individually by unstructured grid systems, are thus developed and act as a more accurate way for fractured reservoir simulation. However, it is usually not realistic to directly apply discrete fracture models to simulate field scale models for efficiency reasons. There is a need for upscaling techniques to coarsen the high resolution fracture descriptions to sizes that can be accommodated by reservoir simulators. In this paper, we extended the adaptive local-global upscaling technique to construct a transmissibility-based dual-porosity dual-permeability model from discrete fracture characterizations. An underlying unstructured fine-scale grid is firstly generated as a base grid. A global coarse-scale simulation is performed to provide boundary conditions for local regions and local upscaling procedures are carried out in every local region for transmissibility calculations. Iterations are performed until the consistency between the global and local properties is achieved. The procedure is applied to provide dual-porosity dual-permeability (DPDK parameters including coarse-scale matrix-matrix, fracture-fracture and matrix-fracture flux transmissibilities. The methodology is applied to several cases. The simulation results demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed method.

  18. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Chapter. 8) andJ-integral (Chapter 12) provide a flavour of nonlinear effects while Chapter 13 briefly describes mixed mode fracture under com- bined loading. Fracture toughness testing in. Chapter 9 delineates various specimen geom- etries ...

  19. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    . Beams sustain two basic types of failures, namely: (a) Flexural (or Bending) Failure: As the beam sags under increased loading, it can fail in two possible ways. If relatively more steel is present on the tension face, concrete crushes in.

  20. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2013-10-01

    dimensional, free convective flow over an infinite moving vertical cylinder under combined buoyancy effects of heat and mass transfer with thermal and mass stratifications. Laplace transform technique is adopted for finding ...

  1. Democracy under siege: Democratic solidarity between global crisis and cosmopolitan hope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunkhorst Hauke

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For almost half a century (between 1940 and 1990 the democratic and social state has solved the twofold problem of growth and social exclusion through social inclusion within the borders of the national state. This solution since the 1970s came under threat of multiple crises of the environment, secular stagnation, under-consumption, legitimization and constitutionalization. There might be a social solution of present crisis possible through massive redistribution plus decent basic income (on the level of tuition-costs plus green growth. However, after globalization of capital there are no longer national social alternatives available. Therefore, there is no alternative to transnational democratic state-formation. But are there actors relevant, strong and motivated enough to do that?

  2. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  3. Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamon, Lara; Von Waldow, Harald; Macleod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2009-08-01

    We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE

  4. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In what follows, I sketch briefly those of Bethe's contributions to solid state theory which are readily available in English translations [3]. 2. Crystal Field theory. An atom or ion .... crystalline electric field (CEF), arising from the electro- static forces on the ... ant under all the symmetry operations that take a cube into itself, eg.

  5. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In bulk lanthanide elements, the combination of weak exchange and anomalous large crystal field and magnetostrictive interactions, arising from .... elements crystallizes in a bcc lattice. This behaviour is commonly attributed to the ..... Above Tcl, the Eu cubic lattice contracts independently of the underlying system. Below Tcl ...

  6. Fulltext PDF

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    Madhu Sudhan

    2007-03-15

    Mar 15, 2007 ... can be induced by a number of agents, including hypoxia, various chemicals, etc. ... Thus, Hsps enhance cell survival under the influence of various stress factors. .... shock and are from immunoblots with 7FB, an antibody recognizing only the 70 kDa inducible Hsp70 family member. (Reproduced with.

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    The land of harmonic analysis offers, for any seeker, several beautiful sceneries and breathtaking vistas. A landmark that cannot be missed is the Peter-Weyl theorem on compact groups. It is simple, elegant and complete. The slim volume under review may appeal even to a novice. The unit circle and the groups of.

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    We take a network of chaotic logistic maps with f (x) = 4x(1 − x), coupled through the scheme (6) and time delay τ = 1. Under appropriate coupling topologies, the network can synchronize for a range of coupling strengths ε ∈ (0.6, 1) [6]. The synchronized solutions. (13) are plotted as a function of the coupling strength over ...

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    aeration in the laboratory, most microorganisms are subjected to prolonged starvation and other types of stress in their natural habitats. In an attempt to understand microbial physiology under conditions seen in nature, there has been a resurgence of interest in what is generally known as 'stationary phase' where laboratory ...

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    Administrator

    question as a non-symbolic way of asking whether the equation x5 = x + 2 has any solutions. Numbers ..... gambling game, a dice game, say, whose possible outcomes are the objects in the set under consideration. ... whose existence is in question, compute the probability that the gambling game will produce one of those ...

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    2012-07-18

    Jul 18, 2012 ... Two hypotheses account for this barrage of good will: 1, Having gained in stature under the stewardship of yours truly, Journal of Biosciences now attracts clamour for a piece of this action from young and energetic investigators at leading research institutions who sign off with a cheery '!'. 2, They clamour ...

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    This behaviour of non-solitonic pulses leads to higher bit rate of propa- gation over the solitons under similar input conditions. This definitely has an interesting consequence in the communication system through the nonlinear fibre. Acknowledgements. SG would like to thank CSIR, Govt. of India for financial support to carry ...

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    user

    Tender shoots and the under surface of leaves are covered with dense brown velvety hairs. Flowers are borne on stiff bunches terminally on short shoots. They are 2-3 cm across, white, sweet-scented with light-brown hairy sepals and many stamens. Loquat fruits are round or pear-shaped, 3-5 cm long and are edible.

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    Nature Watch. Trees with a Difference: The Strangler Figs. Vidya R Athreya. The Banyan (Ficus benghalensis) and the Peepul (Ficus religiosa) trees associated with the Buddha come under a family of trees with murderous tendencies. These trees belonging to the genus. Ficus, also found in the forests of the Western Ghats, ...

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    the Government of Madras selected him for an overseas scholarship that enabled him to do re- search under Robert Robinson on new antima- larial drugs and the .... flavonoids in foods we eat is to act as antioxidants by preventing the damage that may be caused by the reactive free radicals (an inorganic or organic ...

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    span bridges with CFRP cables under earth- quake ground motion. 341. Chandra K see Mehta Y. 469. Chandra K see Trivedi S. 481. Chellapandi P see Velusamy K .... Yapici H. Non-uniform temperature gradients and thermal stresses produced by a moving heat flux applied on a hollow sphere. 195. Yi L J see Ramesh S.

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    span bridges with CFRP cables under earth- quake ground motion. 341. Moving heat source. Non-uniform temperature gradients and ther- mal stresses produced by a moving heat flux applied on a hollow sphere. 195. Multi wall carbon nano tubes. Nano surface generation of grinding process using carbon nano tubes. 747.

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    moved to England when Maurice was six years old. Like Crick,. Wilkins also studied physics. He obtained his docmrate for his studies on the luminescence of solids under the guidance of John. Randall at Birmingham. During the war, Wilkins was involved in research associated with isotope separation by the difficult method.

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    Identifying the best market to sell: A cost function formulation. 1409. Krishna V. Design and development of a web-enabled data mining system employing JEE technologies 1259. Kulkarni D M see Ramkumar P L. 625. Kulkarni S K. Elastic properties of RCC under flexural loading- experimental and analytical approach. 677.

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    PRAKASH KUMAR

    2007-08-17

    Aug 17, 2007 ... The rules of the game of life are known, and they provide an explanation of biological facts for Simpson. Understanding the way these .... under a simulated Martian environment; Nature (London) 193. 497. Hazen R M 2005 Genesis: The scientific quest for life's origin. (Washington: Joseph Henry Press).

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    Numerical simulation of side heating for controlling angular distortion in multipass. MMAW butt welded plates ... modelling and simulation of electromechanically coupled drive systems: An experimental validation. 2021 .... Nayak P K. Profit allocation among rational players in a cooperative game under uncertainty. 1077.

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    Prakash

    earlier, embryonic, totipotent state is age reprogramming; the ageing 'clock' of the transferred nucleus is ... age reprogramming can be separated from developmental reprogramming. Being able to reprogramme the ... recombination mechanism that is peculiar to this stage of development and is under the sole control of the ...

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    The National Conference on Nuclear Physics (NCNP) was held in School of. Physics, Sambalpur University, during 1–3 March 2013 under the sponsor- ... the students to derive inspiration and motivation for their higher studies in nuclear physics. There was an overwhelming response of nuclear physics researchers from all.

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    This work was supported by the Youth Foundation of Science and Technology of. UESTC under grant No. JX04022. References. [1] R C Powell, A Suchocki, G D Gilliland and G J Quarles, J. Lumin. 38, 250 (1987). [2] P Fabeni, G P Pazzi and L Salvini, J. Phys. Chem. Solids 52, 299 (1991). [3] H Eilers, U Hömmerich and ...

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    to such attacks. The Red Queen at work again (Currie et al 1999a; Wilkinson 2000)? The Red Queen ... Hamilton 1980). Villesen et al (1999) have brought in a new angle into the ant-fungus and Red Queen ... Clipboard. 122 critical in the social system of the leaf-cutters, which have large, long-lived colonies, and are under.

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    virtual eternity compared to the lifetimes of the unstable strongly interacting mesons ... tion,. V-A form, Gell-Mann,. Noether, Yang, Lee, Marshak,. Sudarshan, Feynman. Since the neutron lived almost ten minutes before decaying, a virtual eternity compared to .... reflected an underlying physical reality that is central to the way.

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    TECS

    2004; Fecht and Johnson 2004). Several experimental techniques for extending the range of observable under- cooling are available (Turnbull 1950a; Turnbull and Cech. 1950; Wang and Smith 1950; Duwez et al 1960; Fehling and Scheil 1962; Shiraishi and Wood 1964; Rasmussen and Loper Jr. 1975; Southin and ...

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    well-choreographed phases including haemostasis, inflammatory, proliferative and remodelling and scar formation [2]. For the normal healing .... of lasers in the management of wound healing. Acknowledgement. The present study is being carried out under project, no. DLS/81/48222/LSRB-. 164/BDB/2008, DRDO, G.O.I. ...

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    Unknown

    But the diverse and complex physical phenomena underlying temperature ... plexities of temperature and heat, asking what physical ..... Our elderly house cat rests on dry straw in the garden on cool days; on hot days he shifts to bare soil or pavement that never gets direct sunlight. The pattern is common among medium.

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    user1

    Subject Index. Characteristic function. Outgoing Cuntz scattering system for a coisometric lifting and transfer function. 427. Class numbers. Divisibility of class numbers of imag- inary quadratic function fields by a fixed odd number. 1. Closure under functional calculus. On a class of smooth Frechet subalgebras of C*-algebras.

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    Our Raman studies reveal that the pressure transmitter has observable consequences through the interaction of pressure medium with the tubes. Under hydrostatic conditions, x-ray diffraction studies reveal that the tubes continue to retain the two-dimensional translation order up to ~8 GPa and lose this order reversibly at ...

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    Biology Department. Homi Bhabha Center for. The technique of chromatography is studied to bring forth the. Science Education (TIFR) underlying concepts such as adsorption, partition, polarity/. Mumbai 400005, India. non-polarity of a compound. The materials required are very simple such as chalk, starch, ink, etc.

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    Unknown

    laser fluence conditions, only nitromethane dissociates, whereas at high fluence. CF2HCl also undergoes ... nitromethane and H2 under high fluence conditions 10, bright visible luminescence from. CN species was ... sieves and porapak-Q columns were used with a thermal conductivity detector. Quantitative analysis could ...

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    eggs obtained from an ovulating female with sperm derived from a male frog in a Petri dish. It was an unforgettable experience to observe the early divisions of the fertilized eggs under a binocular microscope and watch the emergence of tadpoles. This single experience was sufficient to erase all the negative feelings about ...

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    Around half a century ago the Radio Astronomy Group at TIFR, under the leadership of Prof. Govind Swarup, embarked on an ambitious project to build a Radio. Telescope at Ooty. This 530 m long and 30 m wide cylindrical parabolic reflector had an unique design which allowed it to track a source on the sky with just.

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    M. Senthilkumar (Newgen Imaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    With the objective of working towards effective procedures for microzonation of urban centers, the Programme Advisory and Monitoring Commit- tee (PAMC) of Seismology Division, Department of Science and Technology, Govt. of India under the leadership of Dr Harsh K Gupta mooted the idea of conducting a workshop on ...

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    client1

    Teller and Fermi also moved to Chicago and Maria Mayer could con- tinue to work with Teller on the 'Opacity Project'. On December 2,1942, world's first nuclear reactor built under the unused football stands of Stagg Fields in the University of. Chicago campus, went into successful operation. The group of scientists that built ...

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    under suction, wash the solid with 3-4 ml of ice-cold 2-propanol, and dry. The product, almost pure benzopinacol, is obtained in greater than 90% yield, m.p. 185-186 °C. Experiment 4. Reductive Chlorination of Diazonium Chloride with Cuprous Chloride (Sandmeyer reaction). Metal Salt for Radical Generation by Electron ...

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    Unknown

    'oxidative stress' may be produced (Cross et al 1987). H2O2 may be generated in situ under a variety of ... shown to produce pulmonary hypertension (Burghuber et al 1985). The condition of pulmonary hypertension arises due to a marked increase in blood pressure within the pulmonary artery. One etiological factor in the ...

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    Modelling soil moisture under different land covers in a sub-humid ... Long-term ozone decline and its effect on night airglow intensity of Li 6708 Å at ...... Numerical modelling. Modelling the response of an alluvial aquifer to anthro- pogenic and recharge stresses in the United States. Southern Great Plains. 557. NW India.

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    nuclei, that are so close to our hearts, are yielding new secrets under the analysing power of these sophisticated and elegant microscopes. Hand in hand with advances in hardware, there has been a parallel explosion in data analysis techniques, riding on the waves of the computer revolution. The physics goals that we set ...

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    2014-07-01

    Jul 1, 2014 ... Interleukin-13 (IL-13) is associated with the production of collagen in airway remodelling of asthma. Yet, the molecular mechanisms underlying IL-13 induction of collagen remain unclear; the aim of this study is to address this issue. IL-13 dose- and time-dependently-induced collagen I production in primary ...

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    Unknown

    was not the reason why both articles received more than their share of media attention. Both articles asserted, as had many .... gradually under the influence of a particular, realistic selective regime. In essence, this process of ... common ancestry nor similar selective regimes (Homberger 2001). For example, the presence of.

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    cycle) to do their bit. If this is not done, the units taking less time will remain partly idle in every clock cycle. This may be desirable. (and humane!) in a human pipeline but will lead to performance degradation due to under-utilization of the processor. Hence, designers are forced to keep the decoding unit (which is usually.

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    in India have been participating in collaborative neutron scattering experiments at. BARC through a scheme under which the ... A major scientific collaboration between BARC and Rutherford Appleton ... number of European scientists engaged in neutron scattering work. Interaction and exchange between the Indian neutron ...

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    2012-10-15

    Oct 15, 2012 ... services, viz., ecosystem services, biological resources and social benefits, completely free of charge to the human society. According to the convention of .... from DNA-barcoding-based monitoring of faunal biodiversity under modifying habitat pressure (Andrew J. Crawford, Universidad de los Andes, ...

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    Admin

    Tuberculosis got its present name at the end of the. 19th century. Under its previous name of consumption it has been long known as a world- wide phenomenon. It is caused by a bacterium, Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A related organism, M. bovis, causes TB in cattle while M. leprae is the causative agent of leprosy in man ...

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    After completing his doctorate in the US at the young age of 19, he went to Europe because. Europe was then the best place to study science. He did not carry out research under the supervision of a professor, but restricted himself to attending lectures by the great European scientists of the time. He drew inspiration from ...

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    Unknown

    complexes has been studied under a variety of conditions.31,32 In none of these studies however the mechanism has been established conclusively although in all cases strong evidence has been provided that the intimate mechanism is dissociative (id). In coordinating solvents, 'penta-coordinate' species are found ...

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    S N Ganguli is at the Tata. Institute of Fundamental. Research, Mumbai. He is currently participating in an experiment under prepara- tion for the Large Hadron. Collider (LHC) at CERN,. Geneva. He has been studying properties of Z and. W bosons produced in electron-positron collisions at the Large Electron. Positron ...

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    Mehedi Masud

    2017-10-05

    Oct 5, 2017 ... European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant No. 674896. References. [1] L Wolfenstein, Phys. Rev. Lett. 13, 562 (1964). [2] G C Branco, R Gonzalez Felipe and F R Joaquim, Rev. Mod. Phys. 84, 515 (2012). [3] M Kobayashi and T Maskawa, ...

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    on a famous poem of Walter Scott - "Breathes there a man with soul so tough, who thinks two sexes are not enough?" S M Srivastava's article on transfinite numbers introduces us to the nonintuitive features of the uncountable, so you can under- stand why there are no more points in a plane than on a line! It is astonishing to.

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    IAS Admin

    It gives one a clear idea of the person. On reading it, one realizes that the usual picture that we have of Nobel Prize winners as very smart, hardworking individauls with a passion for learning almost anything under the sun may not be correct, at least in some cases. Shivakumar and Chakravorty's review of the book, reprinted.

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    2016-06-20

    Jun 20, 2016 ... in earlier calculations, is successfully reproduced. The conflict regarding placement of a 12 ..... a significant role in explaining the observed signature splitting ofKπ = 1+ band under discussion, Saitoh ... rotational band. This further suggests that the first- order Coriolis mixing plays a major role in explaining.

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    to a general family of perfect-fluid solutions with an Abelian G2-symmetry acting on spatial surfaces. This family was obtained under the assumption of separation of variables. It contains a diversity of models, with different properties, in particular a. 2-parameter subfamily of geodesically complete, singularity-free, solutions – ...

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    IAS Admin

    Perhaps the most famous of his papers in this area is with the ... ing's concept of resonance in chemistry { a molecule. (benzene is a ..... Two other exam- ples concerned with quantum mechanics are worth cit- ing. Wheeler had a deep conviction that gravity had to come under the framework of quantum mechanics, and.

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    Prakash

    the war, scientists in many institutes in Germany were working in the field of developmental biology, named. Entwicklungsmechanik or Entwicklungsgeschichte (today. Entwicklungsbiologie and Entwicklungsgenetik). Quite a few had studied under Hans Spemann and went on to become heads of institutes or at least of a ...

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    Admin

    meant to foster inquisitiveness and creativity in young people around the world. It is open to anyone, from anywhere, so long as the participant is under eighteen years of age. Children as young as eight from all over the planet participated in the competition via the free science-discussion Molecular Frontiers website ...

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    teachings. It is the conscious understanding of the rational numerical relations underlying musical harmonies which make possible both the construction and use in performance of a musical instrument. It is, however, in the unconscious mental acceptance of these rational relations that we can grasp the real content of music ...

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    The National Conference on Nuclear Physics (NCNP) was held in School of. Physics, Sambalpur University, during 1–3 March 2013 under the sponsor- ship of UGC, DST, CSIR, BRNS and MCL. The conference was inaugurated by Dr S Kailas, Director, Physics Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre,. Mumbai and the ...

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    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    of a visco-elastic solid under the linear theory of nonlocal elasticity. Dispersion relations are obtained. ... However, so far we know, there exists no systematic study of continuum theory which may lead to similar conclusions in all such ... + ∝ and that of X2 as 0 < X2 < + ∝. Moreover, we assume that everything is uniform in ...

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    ... the existence of a common mechanism for the superconducting transition. Keywords. Neutron scattering; superconductor. PACS Nos 78.70.Nx; 74.25.Kc. Acknowledgement. This work was carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is managed by UT-. Batelle LLC, under contract DE-AC00OR22725 for USDOE.

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    PRAKASH KUMAR

    regardless of their position on the retina and under a great diversity of image conditions (Thorpe et al 1996). This extraordinary ... during unsupervised behavior, suggesting that this plasticity might reflect a natural process that occurs as we interact with ... This assertion predicts that learning to discriminate objects at one ...

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    chiral) sulphoxide, as23,24. RSR′ + H2O2 → RS(O)R′ + H2O. (4). Intermediate species having {VO(H2O)}, {VO2},. {VO(OH)} and {VO(O2)} cores have been postu- lated during catalytic turnover. The stability of vana- dium(V) complexes under ...

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    129, No. 2, February 2017, pp. 141–148. c Indian Academy of Sciences. DOI 10.1007/s12039-017-1235-0. RAPID COMMUNICATION. Rapid, efficient and eco-friendly procedure for the synthesis of quinoxalines under solvent-free conditions using sulfated polyborate as a recyclable catalyst. KRISHNA S INDALKAR ...

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    words syn, meaning together, and aesthesis, perception, synaesthesia is an involuntary physical experi- ence in which the stimulation of one sensory modality reliably leads to vivid sensations in one or more different senses. Although first described over a century ago, the physiological and mental mechanisms underlying ...

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    to meet the famous physicist Joule, telling him ·someday you will be proud to say that you have met that ... faculty conSisting of people like Balfour Stewart, Osborne Reynolds (of Reynolds Number fame) etc. As ... Cavendish to make way for new leadership under Ernest Rutherford and moved to Trinity College as its. Master ...

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    1IRAF is distributed by the National Optical Astronomy Observatories, which is operated by the. Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy Inc., under contract to the National Science .... The logarithmic limb darkening law was adopted and limb darkening coefficients were taken from Van Hamme (1993) ...

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    Descartes (1596–1650), the French philosopher and mathemati- cian. (Descartes used to sign in the Latinized version of his name. 'Cartesins', because of which both his systems of geometry and philosophy go under the name 'Cartesian'.) Descartes was born in 1596 in France. He was a brilliant but very unhealthy student ...

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    with an LED light source (covered with parchment paper which acts as a diffuser) was used for illumination. Experiment 1: Drainage of a Vertical Soap Film. Drainage of a vertical soap film under gravity may be studied by suspending a soap film bounded by a hoop on a retort stand, in front of a black backdrop (see Figure 3).

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    Victor Franz Hess: A Short Biography. Victor Hess was 29 years old when he discovered cosmic rays and he devoted the rest of his research career ... changing atmosphere in Austria, and Germany under the Nazi rule. His wife was Jewish. Luckily, a sympathetic Gestapo officer cautioned the Hess family that they might be ...

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    ous sodium bicarbonate solution and extracted with ethyl acetate (3 × 10mL). The solvent was removed under reduced pressure. The pasty mass, thus obtained was extracted with diethyl ether (3 × 10mL), dried over anhydrous sodium sulphate, ether distilled off and the obtained crude mixture of products was purified.

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    Most of us first become familiar with Newton when during our early years we are told the tale of the falling apple: sitting under presumably an apple tree, the young Newton, looked at a falling apple and pondered why apple falls 'down' only. Thus came the revelation and Newton discovered gravity. We are also told another ...

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    WINTEC

    with saturated aqueous sodium bicarbonate (20 mL) and extracted with ethyl acetate (3 × 20 mL). The combined organic extracts were dried over anhydrous sodium sulphate and evaporated under reduced pres- sure to give a residue which was purified by silica gel chromatography (50%, EtOAc/hexanes) to af- ford 10 (520 ...

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    style of presentation which is infomml, with profuse documentation, incisive dissection, at times ruthless, leading to inescapable conclusions. Underlying all his writings is his notion orthe fundamental nature of a human being - creativity and freedom - presupposing the existence of a human mind. His views, in turn, originate ...

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    M I Pedraza-Morales, A Rosado and H Salazar 603–615. Heavy flavor baryons in hypercentral model. Bhavin Patel,. Ajay Kumar Rai and P C Vinodkumar .... J Paul, T Nishimatsu, Y Kawazoe and U V Waghmare 263–270. Bound values for Hall conductivity of heterogeneous medium under quantum Hall effect conditions.

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    Vijay A Singh,. Manoj K Harbola and Praveen Pathak. 255. A first-principles study of phase transitions in ultrathin films of BaTiO3 ... ..................... J Paul, T Nishimatsu, Y Kawazoe and U V Waghmare. 263. Contributed papers. Bound values for Hall conductivity of heterogeneous medium under quantum. Hall effect conditions ...

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    optimization using genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Rega Rajendra and Dilip Kumar Pratihar. 549–575. Performance assessment of indigenously developed FBG strain sensors under short-term and long-term loadings. K Kesavan, B Arun Sundaram,. A K Farvaze Ahmed, S Parivallal, P Biswas,.

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    underlying concepts such as adsorption, partition, polarity/. Mumbai 400005, India. non-polarity of a compound. The materials required are very simple such as chalk, starch, ink, etc. Once the concepts are understood, the technique can be easily extrapolated to analyze complex biological samples as well. Introduction.

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    received correct solutions to the problem as stated in the September 97 issue from V SUbramanyam, N Hariharan and Anima Nagar but all the solutions given by them have zeroes occuring in the array. We thank them for their interest and encourage them (and also other readers) to solve the problem under the condition ...

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    Unknown

    eye field region, might induce the epidermal cells to transform into a complete median eye. References. Jangir O P, Shekhawat D V S, Garg Sushma and Goswami M. 1995 A study of lens regeneration in the tadpoles of Rana cyanophlyctis under the influence of vitamin-A; XI National. Symposium on Developmental Biology, ...

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    will be resumed in about 4 years time using the large hadron collider which is under construction at the CERN laboratory. The LHC is designed to definitively explore the Higgs sector and the EWsB mechanism. In this report we discuss the simulations of the LHC performance in discovering Higgs boson(s) and measuring.

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    New approach to solve fully fuzzy system of linear equations using single and double parametric form of fuzzy ... Heat transfer between two parallel porous plates for Couette flow under pressure gradient and Hall current ... A simplified four-unknown shear and normal deformations theory for bidirectional laminated plates.

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    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... the increase in structural disorder in LPCBMO system, the transport improved for the range: 0.15 ≤ x ≤ 0.30, which can be ascribed to ... Manganites; structural disorder; transport behaviour; phase segregation. 1. Introduction ..... ing temperature under the same environment and for the same time duration ...

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    2014-01-27

    Jan 27, 2014 ... Cave populations have no use for eyes and pigmentation and, consequently, are eyeless and albino; whereas surface populations have eyes and are pigmented. The two populations can interbreed, and mutations underlying eye degeneration and albinism in the troglodytes segregate in the progeny.

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    ments, now under study, that will bring additional workhorse capabilities to serve the scientific interests of a wider user base and also offer a wide range of opportunities to all TMT partners. ... This invaluable experience will help Indian industries and astronomers to develop our own 10-m or a larger sized segmented mir-.

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    117. Manohar C S. Monte Carlo filters for identifications of non- linear structural dynamical systems. 399. Madhekar S. Electronic circuit realization of the logistic map. 69 ... the Taguchi technique. 671. Somnay R J. Nonlinear dynamics of a sliding beam on two supports under sinusoidal excitation. 383. Tripalo B see Brncic M.

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    SiO2/MPR samples were characterized by infrared spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis and scanning electron microscopy to determine chemical and textural properties of the hybrid substrates. Under appropriate experimen- tal conditions, chemical bonds could be established between the SiO2 silanol surface groups ...

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    lating machine of that era, used for solving differential equations. A part ofthe analyser was a relay circuit, which stimulated his interest in the underlying theory. ... tematic theory of digital circuit design. In 1938 Shannon shifted from the electrical engineering department to the mathematics de- partment. He spent the summer ...

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    Administrator

    Selective oxidation of organic compounds under non- aqueous conditions is an important transformation in synthetic organic chemistry. For this, a number of ... ing the decrease in the concentration of BTPPD at. 364 nm for up to 80% of the reaction. The pseudo-first order rate constant, kobs, was evaluated from the lin- ear (r.

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    chronicles the trials and the ultimate triumph of Ross achieved under trying circumstances. A little known fact is that the astute experimentalist had also proposed ... Sindhu Radhakrishna describes significant phenomena that af- fected the evolution of primates in the evolutionary mosaic, while Jasbir Chahal gives a heuristic ...

  12. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to sleep under the bridge at night. By such ..... tends to "make man an instrument to serve its arbitrary ends, overlooking his individual purposes." His doctrine is classical liberal, strongly opposed to all but the most minimal forms of ... commodity to decide where is should be offered for sale, to what purpose it should be used,.

  13. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    But without any peer guidance, he was a loner in his academic journey and successfully completed his Ph.D. ... sure with diagenetic changes under the influence of meteoric water was thought to be the only process ... the influence of meteoric water, Sukomol came forward in concert with a few others with the hypothesis of ...

  14. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-08-08

    Aug 8, 2014 ... Jing Ji, jijing@tju.edu.cn. (a calcium-binding protein). Previous research has shown that AtSOS1 is essential to maintain low intracellular levels of toxic Na. + under salt stress (Qiu et al. 2002). Vac- uolar Na. +. /H. + antiporters have been investigated as the key to salt tolerance in plants (Blumwald et al.

  15. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sitaram Pal) gratefully acknowledges the financial help from the University. Grants Commission (India) under the XIth Plan. References. [1] JACEE Collaboration: T H Burnett et al, Phys. Rev. Lett. 50, 2062 (1983). [2] UA5 Collaboration: G J Alner et al ...

  16. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Madhu Sudhan

    2007-03-26

    Mar 26, 2007 ... Temperature is one of the physical parameters under constant vigilance in all living cells. Numerous processes are temperature-controlled in bacteria including the expression of heat and cold shock genes and of virulence genes to mention the most prominent examples (Narberhaus et al 2006). How do ...

  17. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    FVQ. An experimental comparison of modelling techniques for speaker recognition under limited data condition. 717. Game theory. Revenue sharing in semiconductor industry ..... Stencil printing process. Investigation of wall-slip effect on lead- free solder paste and isotropic conductive adhesives. 799. Stochastic Sensitivity.

  18. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2017-07-26

    Jul 26, 2017 ... showed that stress-assisted hydrolysis, when the fibres were under stress, could lead to about 5.18 times reduction in surface energy to account for 2.30 ... higher Fe2+/Fetotal ratio leads to faster cooling of fibre during the attenuation ... The motivation for our iron redox study (IRS) was to address whether for ...

  19. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Madhu

    organisms, such as endemism (restriction to a particular geographical area) and disjunction (geographical disconti- nuity in distribution), have attracted the attention of biolo- gists. The quest to understand historical processes underly- ing these aspects of geographical distributions lies at the heart of biogeography. In the last ...

  20. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    buildings with open ground storeys at Ahmedabad (-225km away from epicenter) during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake has emphasised that such buildings are extremely vulnerable under earthquake shaking. The presence of walls in upper storeys makes them much stiffer than the open ground storey. Thus, the upper storeys ...

  1. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-07-11

    Jul 11, 2016 ... For control sets, the leaves were floated in the water. The plates were covered and incubated at 23°C under 12 h/12 h light/dark cycle. Plates were photo- graphed every day. UV treatment and associated cell death measurement were carried out as described previously. (Bhattacharjee et al. 2015). 3.

  2. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Under the title 'A Case History ofBio-piracy' the penultimate chapter of the book makes a very convincing portrayal of the grim situation that arose following the granting of ... book is that it puts a lot of stress on problem solving and contains a large number of very exciting problems. syllabus. Moreover, topics are covered.

  3. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    of infectious disease in humans as coinciding with the formation of settlements in the historical era. (Fiennes 1978 ... This period constituted a crucial step in the development of human societies, and it was accompanied by a ... comes from bacteria that can alter their life cycle and form a more resistant stage under hostile.

  4. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    and Otani S 1995 Studies on carbon material requirements for bacterial proliferation and spore germination under stress conditions: a new mechanisms involving transmission of physical signals; J. Bacteriol. 177 688–693. Matsuhashi M et al 1996 Bacillus carboniphilus cells respond to growth-promoting physical signals ...

  5. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Admin

    and AIDS are beginning to pose major problems. The recent deciphering of the complete genomic .... metabolic disorders like diabetes and AIDS). These factors also make it unlikely that an .... Its mode of action has been under investigation from 1957 at the Indian Institute of Science. After a few apparently misleading starts, ...

  6. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We investigate the influence of diversity on the temporal regularity of spiking in a ring of coupled model ... Further, we investigate the system under random spatial connections, where the links are both dynamic and ..... dynamic links, where increasing the fraction of random links continues to aid coherence. 4. Summary.

  7. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    term gains to society. While finding a drug for AIDS belongs to the former category, sending a space mission to Mars falls under the latter category. Does a developing nation have the luxury of spending its precious financial and human resources in the pursuit of basic science or should it focus only on applied research?

  8. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    their features, classification, habitats, food habits, and dis- tribution. Unique Characteristics of Bats. Bats are the only mammals that can fly. They are unique because of their capacity for flight and echolocation and their ability to hang upside down. Zoologists place the bats under the order known as Chiroptera. In Greek, the ...

  9. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Under the auspices of the United Nations, the major industrial countries have agreed to cease production of CFCs. The United Nations. Environment Programme and the Ozone Sec- retariat invited the world community to ob- serve 16 September, 1995 as the first-ever. International Day for the preservation of the ozone layer ...

  10. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    C/min. Primary weight loss of these materials as a function of temperature was recorded using this study. Dried samples were coated with solid ions using an ion coater (fisons sputter coater) under the following conditions: 0⋅1 Torr pressure, ...

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    Determination of the rationale behind the origin of homochirality in biological molecules has roused the interest of many for a long time. Natural proteins comprise α-amino acids that are exclusively left-handed (L-amino acids). Efforts have been directed to elucidate the reason underlying this phenomenon from various ...

  12. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    off and from [6] using dimensional regularization. One has. Gl = i. ∫ d4q ..... width from experiment is about 40–45 MeV, but a precise determination would be ..... Infrastructure Initiative Hadron Physics Project under contract number RII3-CT-.

  13. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-07-01

    Jul 1, 2014 ... The genomic composition of an organism is shaped by the selective pressures imposed by its niche environment. .... functional unit originally acquired under pressure during evolution'. ... in growth phase-dependent and osmotic regulation of σS and many σS-dependent genes in Escherichia coli.

  14. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    RESONANCE | August 2007. DEPARTMENTS. Editorial. Vasant Natarajan. A rectangular shaped SmS sample under high pressure inside a DAC. See article on p.49. (Courtesy: A Jayaraman). John Backus. (1924 – 2007). ( Illustration: Subhankar Biswas ). Front Cover. Back Cover. 01. Inside Back Cover. Flowering Trees.

  15. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Srinivas

    The transmission of malaria is governed by local and focal factors leading to vector(s) abundance under favourable conditions. Detection of sporozoites in naturally infected. Anopheles mosquitoes is an integral component of malaria epidemiology to find out the transmission route. This helps in planning effective and ...

  16. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-19

    Jan 19, 2016 ... exported from the nucleus, processed into mature piRNAs, and reenter the nucleus as part of a Rsp-piRNA–primed RNA– protein silencing complex (Rsp RNP) that silences the Rsps locus and enables Rsps-bearing chromosomes to condense chromatin. Under distorting (i.e. SD/SD+) conditions, ...

  17. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    organism is a product of the conditions under which it grows. There are many specific ... With a little creativity and imagination a teacher can help in bring- ing a change in the quality of education. Such adaptations can bring about the excitement of the biological revolution. ~irectly to students and to the general public.

  18. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The MSLs appear to function through chromatin remodelling of the X chromosome. Under the influence of the MOF protein, histone H4-Lys 16 acetylation occurs. Histone acetylation and gene transcription are related. Many proteins designated as transcriptional cofactors possess histone acetyl transferase activity (Brownell ...

  19. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    ligands (HMP) possess unique ligating characteristics in that they transmit several desirable properties to the ... compounds have been implicated for potential use in cancer therapy. However, there is no gold compound yet available for clinical use because of the pronounced kinetic instability of these compounds under ...

  20. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    elongated asci of the 8-spored species reflect the underlying genetic events during meiosis, thus introducing Neurospora to a wider audience. It was Dodge's work on Neurospora and its simple nutritional requirements that inspired George. Beadle and Edward Tatum of Stanford University to use. N. crassa for their landmark ...

  1. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Madhu Sudhan

    2007-03-15

    Mar 15, 2007 ... case of stress is to prevent aggregation and restore the native .... under the same stress conditions (Evgen'ev et al 2004). .... mode of life. The temperature optimum for this species is. 25–35oC. Comparative analysis has shown that Leishmanias parasitizing in the agama blood are capable of more active.

  2. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a kind of coup that tremendously benefited chemistry, perhaps at the cost of architecture. Kekule also had the good fortune of studying under such great masters as Dumas and Wurtz in Paris. Between 1854 and 1856 he worked as assistant to a chemist by name Stenhouse in London, where he acquainted himself.

  3. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    expansion mismatch, and (iii) a tensile component of the residual stress in the layer under residual compressive stress. After this ... Keywords. Al2O3–Y–PSZ laminated composites; hot pressing; residual stress; transverse cracks; longitudinal cracks. 1. ..... job of polishing the samples through the long hours of day and night.

  4. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The desire to know the principles governing the physical universe is as old as man has been on this planet. The four little books under review are brief biographical sket- ches of four eminent scientists who have profoundly transformed our understanding of the physical world. In this review of these books I will draw attention ...

  5. Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or

  6. Predictions of future ephemeral springtime waterbird stopover habitat availability under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Grosse, Roger; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; LaGrange, Theodore G.; Stutheit, Randy G.; Vrtiska, Mark P.

    2015-01-01

    In the present period of rapid, worldwide change in climate and landuse (i.e., global change), successful biodiversity conservation warrants proactive management responses, especially for long-distance migratory species. However, the development and implementation of management strategies can be impeded by high levels of uncertainty and low levels of control over potentially impactful future events and their effects. Scenario planning and modeling are useful tools for expanding perspectives and informing decisions under these conditions. We coupled scenario planning and statistical modeling to explain and predict playa wetland inundation (i.e., presence/absence of water) and ponded area (i.e., extent of water) in the Rainwater Basin, an anthropogenically altered landscape that provides critical stopover habitat for migratory waterbirds. Inundation and ponded area models for total wetlands, those embedded in rowcrop fields, and those not embedded in rowcrop fields were trained and tested with wetland ponding data from 2004 and 2006–2009, and then used to make additional predictions under two alternative climate change scenarios for the year 2050, yielding a total of six predictive models and 18 prediction sets. Model performance ranged from moderate to good, with inundation models outperforming ponded area models, and models for non-rowcrop-embedded wetlands outperforming models for total wetlands and rowcrop-embedded wetlands. Model predictions indicate that if the temperature and precipitation changes assumed under our climate change scenarios occur, wetland stopover habitat availability in the Rainwater Basin could decrease in the future. The results of this and similar studies could be aggregated to increase knowledge about the potential spatial and temporal distributions of future stopover habitat along migration corridors, and to develop and prioritize multi-scale management actions aimed at mitigating the detrimental effects of global change on migratory

  7. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

  8. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a standard sample, namely, zirconium hydride, which has a vibrational frequency of hydrogen atom at 134 meV. The spectra for Zr2NiH1.9 and Zr2NiH4.6 are fitted to four peaks (figure 1) using a least square fitting program with the peak position. Ei and area under the peak Ai as fitting parameters. The observed neutron ...

  9. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    taining a very small amount of hydrochloric acid (1–2%). Antimony oxide (Sb2O3) was dissolved as antimony chlo- ride in hydrochloric acid (50%) and PdCl2 was dissolved as Pd(NO3)2 in hot nitric acid (~ 20%). The above solu- tions were added to ammonium hydroxide solution (pH above 10 and under stirring) so that all ...

  10. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    arising from a non-degenerate quadratic form in a 5-dimensional vector space defined over a finite field of order q. ... hermitian or quadratic form of the underlying vector space V (d + 1,q) of PG(d,q). (Chapter 4 of [10]). ...... As the trace function Tr is a surjective homomorphism, there are q/2 distinct values of y such that Tr((μ + ...

  11. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2011-08-02

    Aug 2, 2011 ... from available bond angle and bond moments and calculated theoretical dipole moment μcal. ×. 10. 30. C. ·m under static or low-frequency electric fi eld o .... If a polar solute of weight Wj and volume vj is mixed with a nonpolar solvent of weight. Wi and volume vi to yield a solution density ρij as ρij = Wi + Wj.

  12. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2009-12-03

    Dec 3, 2009 ... an internal control, the Ubiquitin gene was amplified with primers Ub1 (5′-AAG ACC TAC ACC AAG CCC AA-3′) and Ub2 (5′-AAG TGA GCC CAC ACT TAC CA-3′) under the same conditions as described above. Of the amplified products, 3 μl was separated on 1% agarose gel and photographed.

  13. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    notes the total capital available for the survey, Co the over- head cost, Ch the cost of surveying a unit in the hth stratum and nh the number of units surveyed in the ... optimal allocation in the remaining strata by taking n -. Ej=l N hi as the sample size. It is shown below that a similar situation may also arise under the setup (ti).

  14. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user

    slides dow n a curve in the vertical plane containing A and B under the .... p osite vertical faces L indicates a lizard and I in d ica tes an insect. .... B y drain- ing out the extra solution, a soap ¯lm (a little glycerin m ay be added to the soap solution for enhancing the sta- bility of the ¯lm ) connecting all the pins is form ed. T o.

  15. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    THOLASI

    Can one easily exhibit a real number which is not rational (such numbers are known under a slightly offensive name of irrational)? last tw o statem ents w as true, ¼ w ould have to be ratio- nal, that is it w ould have to be equal to a fraction m n ..... form ly distributed (as they are only `pseudo-random ') and,even ifthey w ere,in ...

  16. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    equivalent under the relation. For instance, the relation in R4, whose equivalence classes are f1Y 2Y 4g and f3g is represented by the picture. We will be interested in the vector space with R2n as basis, which will be equipped with the structure of a C-algebra, with the definition of the product of basis vectors involving a.

  17. Fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2017-11-28

    Nov 28, 2017 ... efficiency, simple manufacturing process and low production cost [1–4]. Transparent conductive oxides as ..... electrolyte under different light intensities. Light intensity(mW cm. −2). JSC (mA cm. −2). VOC (mV). FF (%). PCE (%). Shunt resistance(k ). Series resistance(k ). 60. 264. 254. 32.8. 0.037. 4.0. 0.63.

  18. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  19. Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

    2015-03-01

    Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

  20. Enhanced water use efficiency in global terrestrial ecosystems under increasing aerosol loadings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Xiaoliang; Chen, Min; Liu, Yaling; Miralles, Diego G.; Wang, Faming

    2017-05-01

    Aerosols play a crucial role in the climate system, affecting incoming radiation and cloud formation. Based on a modelling framework that couples ecosystem processes with the atmospheric transfer of radiation, we analyze the effect of aerosols on surface incoming radiation, gross primary productivity (GPP), water losses from ecosystems through evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE, defined as GPP/ET) for 2003–2010 and validate them at global FLUXNET sites. The total diffuse radiation increases under relatively low or intermediate aerosol loadings, but decreases under more polluted conditions. We find that aerosol-induced changes in GPP depend on leaf area index, aerosol loading and cloudiness. Specifically, low and moderate aerosol loadings cause increases in GPP for all plant types, while heavy aerosol loadings result in enhancement (decrease) in GPP for dense (sparse) vegetation. On the other hand, ET is mainly negatively affected by aerosol loadings due to the reduction in total incoming radiation. Finally, WUE shows a consistent rise in all plant types under increasing aerosol loadings. Overall, the simulated daily WUE compares well with observations at 43 eddy-covariance tower sites (R2=0.84 and RMSE=0.01gC (kg H2O)-1) with better performance at forest sites. In addition to the increasing portions of diffuse light, the rise in WUE is also favored by the reduction in radiation- and heat-stress caused by the aerosols, especially for wet and hot climates.

  1. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

    2015-01-01

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

  2. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

    2015-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  4. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J

    2015-10-21

    Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

  5. Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

    2015-05-12

    As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

  6. The Impact Of Regionalism On Regional Development Under The Conditions Of A Globalized Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Cihelkova

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to explain the difference between regionalism and regional development concepts that are often used interchangeably, to investigate the fundamental aspects of two phenomena: regionalism in the sense of “new regionalism” and in the sense of “regional development” at the background of the globalized economy; to check a hypothesis that these two phenomena may be linked together and to study the impact of regionalism on regional integration. The article deepens the concept of “regional development.” At the same time, peculiarities of the current stage of the world economy development under the conditions of globalization are considered. The paper is theoretical (verbal rather than statistical analysis of the nature, diversity and fundamental aspects of regionalism and regional development in general. The article deals with the impact of regionalism on the location of production, and the growth of competition and market expansion systematizes the main effects of regionalism on market expansion and the location of production.

  7. Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A.; Runting, Rebecca K.; Capon, Tim; Perring, Michael P.; Cunningham, Shaun C.; Kragt, Marit E.; Nolan, Martin; Law, Elizabeth A.; Renwick, Anna R.; Eber, Sue; Christian, Rochelle; Wilson, Kerrie A.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon payments can help mitigate both climate change and biodiversity decline through the reforestation of agricultural land. However, to achieve biodiversity co-benefits, carbon payments often require support from other policy mechanisms such as regulation, targeting, and complementary incentives. We evaluated 14 policy mechanisms for supplying carbon and biodiversity co-benefits through reforestation of carbon plantings (CP) and environmental plantings (EP) in Australia’s 85.3 Mha agricultural land under global change. The reference policy--uniform payments (bidders are paid the same price) with land-use competition (both CP and EP eligible for payments), targeting carbon--achieved significant carbon sequestration but negligible biodiversity co-benefits. Land-use regulation (only EP eligible) and two additional incentives complementing the reference policy (biodiversity premium, carbon levy) increased biodiversity co-benefits, but mostly inefficiently. Discriminatory payments (bidders are paid their bid price) with land-use competition were efficient, and with multifunctional targeting of both carbon and biodiversity co-benefits increased the biodiversity co-benefits almost 100-fold. Our findings were robust to uncertainty in global outlook, and to key agricultural productivity and land-use adoption assumptions. The results suggest clear policy directions, but careful mechanism design will be key to realising these efficiencies in practice. Choices remain for society about the amount of carbon and biodiversity co-benefits desired, and the price it is prepared to pay for them.

  8. Theoretical Foundations of the New Industrialization of the Mining Region under Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusurgasheva Ludmila

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is intended to establish theoretical foundations of the new industrialization of the mining region under the globalization. The urgency of the problem is due to a significant de-industrialization of many branches of the Russian economy as a result of the neoliberal macroeconomic paradigm in the years of radical market reforms. As a result, a number of Russian regions has formed the structure of industrial production, which is characteristic mainly for the countries of the raw materials periphery. The authors see the new industrialization (neo-industrialization as a strategic tool for solving the problem. The trend that has formed in the Russian regional policy to transfer the responsibility for the economy modernization to the regional level has attached the special importance to regional studies. Exhaustion of predominantly raw-materials export model of economic growth has put Kuzbass, the mining region in Western Siberia, in the most difficult situation due to its tight dependence on the state of the world market of energy resources. This article presents a theoretical justification of the need, feasibility and advisability of neo-industrialization for the mining region in the conditions of globalization.

  9. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

  10. Global MHD Simulations of the Earth's Bow Shock Shape and Motion Under Variable Solar Wind Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejnertsen, L.; Eastwood, J. P.; Hietala, H.; Schwartz, S. J.; Chittenden, J. P.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical models of the Earth's bow shock are often used to place in situ measurements in context and to understand the global behavior of the foreshock/bow shock system. They are derived statistically from spacecraft bow shock crossings and typically treat the shock surface as a conic section parameterized according to a uniform solar wind ram pressure, although more complex models exist. Here a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation is used to analyze the variability of the Earth's bow shock under real solar wind conditions. The shape and location of the bow shock is found as a function of time, and this is used to calculate the shock velocity over the shock surface. The results are compared to existing empirical models. Good agreement is found in the variability of the subsolar shock location. However, empirical models fail to reproduce the two-dimensional shape of the shock in the simulation. This is because significant solar wind variability occurs on timescales less than the transit time of a single solar wind phase front over the curved shock surface. Empirical models must therefore be used with care when interpreting spacecraft data, especially when observations are made far from the Sun-Earth line. Further analysis reveals a bias to higher shock speeds when measured by virtual spacecraft. This is attributed to the fact that the spacecraft only observes the shock when it is in motion. This must be accounted for when studying bow shock motion and variability with spacecraft data.

  11. Global transcriptional responses of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans Wenelen under different sulfide minerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre, Mauricio; Ehrenfeld, Nicole; Cortés, María Paz; Travisany, Dante; Budinich, Marko; Aravena, Andrés; González, Mauricio; Bobadilla-Fazzini, Roberto A; Parada, Pilar; Maass, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    In order to provide new information about the adaptation of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans during the bioleaching process, the current analysis presents the first report of the global transcriptional response of the native copper mine strain Wenelen (DSM 16786) oxidized under different sulfide minerals. Microarrays were used to measure the response of At. ferrooxidans Wenelen to shifts from iron supplemented liquid cultures (reference state) to the addition of solid substrates enriched in pyrite or chalcopyrite. Genes encoding for energy metabolism showed a similar transcriptional profile for the two sulfide minerals. Interestingly, four operons related to sulfur metabolism were over-expressed during growth on a reduced sulfur source. Genes associated with metal tolerance (RND and ATPases type P) were up-regulated in the presence of pyrite or chalcopyrite. These results suggest that At. ferrooxidans Wenelen presents an efficient transcriptional system developed to respond to environmental conditions, namely the ability to withstand high copper concentrations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taucher, J.; Oschlies, A.

    2011-01-01

    A global Earth System model is employed to investigate the role of direct temperature effects in the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. While model configurations with and without consideration of explicit temperature effects can reproduce observed current biogeochemical tracer distributions and estimated carbon export about equally well, carbon flow through the model ecosystem reveals strong temperature sensitivities. Depending on whether biological processes are assumed temperature sensitive or not, simulated marine net primary production (NPP) increases or decreases under projected climate change driven by a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario for the 21st century. This suggests that indirect temperature effects such as changes in the supply of nutrients and light are not the only relevant factors to be considered when modeling the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. A better understanding of direct temperature effects on marine ecosystems is required before even the direction of change in NPP can be reliably predicted.

  13. Detection of change points in underlying earthquake rates, with application to global mega-earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touati, Sarah; Naylor, Mark; Main, Ian

    2016-02-01

    The recent spate of mega-earthquakes since 2004 has led to speculation of an underlying change in the global `background' rate of large events. At a regional scale, detecting changes in background rate is also an important practical problem for operational forecasting and risk calculation, for example due to volcanic processes, seismicity induced by fluid injection or withdrawal, or due to redistribution of Coulomb stress after natural large events. Here we examine the general problem of detecting changes in background rate in earthquake catalogues with and without correlated events, for the first time using the Bayes factor as a discriminant for models of varying complexity. First we use synthetic Poisson (purely random) and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models (which also allow for earthquake triggering) to test the effectiveness of many standard methods of addressing this question. These fall into two classes: those that evaluate the relative likelihood of different models, for example using Information Criteria or the Bayes Factor; and those that evaluate the probability of the observations (including extreme events or clusters of events) under a single null hypothesis, for example by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and `runs' tests, and a variety of Z-score tests. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness among these tests varies widely. Information Criteria worked at least as well as the more computationally expensive Bayes factor method, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and runs tests proved to be the relatively ineffective in reliably detecting a change point. We then apply the methods tested to events at different thresholds above magnitude M ≥ 7 in the global earthquake catalogue since 1918, after first declustering the catalogue. This is most effectively done by removing likely correlated events using a much lower magnitude threshold (M ≥ 5), where triggering is much more obvious. We find no strong evidence that the background rate of large

  14. SOME ASPECTS OF THE CONSERVATION OF THE CULTURAL HERITAGE OF DAGESTAN REPUBLIC UNDER GLOBALIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. N. Nabieva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Problems of preservation of cultural and natural heritage in the era of globalization, acquiring intensi-ty and penetration in various spheres of human activity in recent decades, are particularly relevant. Republic of Da-gestan is a multi-ethnic region located at the crossroads of world cultures and passed a difficult path of political, so-cio-economic and cultural development. The loss of the heritage can be attributed to one of social disasters, and in its consequences can be compared to the natural disasters on the planet. In this connection, the main aim is to develop proposals for the preservation and use of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan under globalization, a problem that sounds very relevant today. Methods. We used an analytical method to study the problem, based on the study of the scientific sources on heritage conservation in the context of globalization. In addition, we followed the methodology developed by the Russian Research Institute for Cultural and Natural Heritage. Results. In the article we make suggestions that will contribute to the conservation and utilization of cultural and natural heritage of the Republic of Dagestan in the context of globalization. The main task today is to develop the following: 1 long-term strategic policy document for justification of national policies in the field of protection and use of cultural and natural heritage; 2 draft law on measures of state support for the preservation of cultural heritage and heritage man-agement; 3 the priority list of the most endangered and valuable objects of cultural, historical and natural heritage. Conclusions. At the state level, a concept should be developed of preservation of the natural and historical envi-ronment of ethnic groups, ways of life and traditional forms of management, including the creation of socio-cultural programs aimed at improving the living conditions of the indigenous population, the study of its language

  15. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  16. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  17. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, Robert Russell M; Lima, Nelson

    2017-02-17

    Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF) will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a) thermotolerant and (b) present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  18. Global potential distribution of an invasive species, the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Youhua

    2008-09-01

    Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models. © 2008 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  19. A possible explanation for the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Li, Tim; Yu, Yongqiang; Behera, Swadhin K.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the greatest climate variability on interannual time scale, yet what controls ENSO amplitude changes under global warming (GW) is uncertain. Here we show that the fundamental factor that controls the divergent projections of ENSO amplitude change within 20 coupled general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 is the change of climatologic mean Pacific subtropical cell (STC), whose strength determines the meridional structure of ENSO perturbations and thus the anomalous thermocline response to the wind forcing. The change of the thermocline response is a key factor regulating the strength of Bjerknes thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, which ultimately lead to the divergent changes in ENSO amplitude. Furthermore, by forcing an ocean general circulation mode with the change of zonal mean zonal wind stress estimated by a simple theoretical model, a weakening of the STC in future is obtained. Such a change implies that ENSO variability might strengthen under GW, which could have a profound socio-economic consequence.

  20. Thermophilic Fungi to Dominate Aflatoxigenic/Mycotoxigenic Fungi on Food under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Russell M. Paterson

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Certain filamentous fungi produce mycotoxins that contaminate food. Mycotoxin contamination of crops is highly influenced by environmental conditions and is already affected by global warming, where there is a succession of mycotoxigenic fungi towards those that have higher optimal growth temperatures. Aflatoxigenic fungi are at the highest limit of temperature although predicted increases in temperature are beyond that constraint. The present paper discusses what will succeed these fungi and represents the first such consideration. Aflatoxins are the most important mycotoxins and are common in tropical produce, much of which is exported to temperate regions. Hot countries may produce safer food under climate change because aflatoxigenic fungi will be inhibited. The same situation will occur in previously temperate regions where these fungi have recently appeared, although decades later. Existing thermotolerant and thermophilic fungi (TTF will dominate, in contrast to the conventional mycotoxigenic fungi adapting or mutating, as it will be quicker. TTF produce a range of secondary metabolites, or potential mycotoxins and patulin which may become a new threat. In addition, Aspergillus fumigatus will appear more frequently, a serious human pathogen, because it is (a thermotolerant and (b present on crops: hence this is an even greater problem. An incubation temperature of 41 °C needs employing forthwith to detect TTF. Finally, TTF in crops requires study because of the potential for diseases in humans and animals under climate change.

  1. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To highlight the vulnerability of digital resources and strategies for digital preservation. ii. To highlight the role of Institutional. Repositories in digital preservation and access. Threats to Digital assets. Digital assets either digital born or digitized are stored and preserved on storage media. The most. PDF Creator - PDF4Free ...

  2. Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, A.

    2017-12-01

    A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

  3. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer K Costanza

    Full Text Available The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and identified the indicator and dominant species associated with each. Cluster typologies in two levels of a hierarchy of forest assemblages, with 29 and 147 groups respectively, were supported by diagnostic criteria. Groups in these two levels of the hierarchy were labeled based on the top indicator species in each, and ranged widely in size. For example, in the 29-cluster typology, the sugar maple-red maple assemblage contained the largest number of plots (30,068, while the butternut-sweet birch and sourwood-scarlet oak assemblages were both smallest (6 plots each. We provide a case-study demonstration of the utility of the typology for informing forest climate change impact assessment. For five assemblages in the 29-cluster typology, we used existing projections of changes in importance value (IV for the dominant species under one low and one high climate change scenario to assess impacts to the assemblages. Results ranged widely for each scenario by the end of the century, with each showing an average decrease in IV for dominant species in some assemblages, including the balsam fir-quaking aspen assemblage, and an average increase for others, like the green ash-American elm assemblage. Future work should assess adaptive capacity of these forest assemblages and investigate local population- and community-level dynamics in places where dominant species may be impacted. This typology will be ideal for monitoring, assessing, and projecting changes to forest communities within the emerging framework of macrosystems ecology, which emphasizes hierarchies and broad extents.

  4. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  5. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  6. Assessment of global morphological and topological changes in trabecular structure under the bone resorption process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorenko, Irina N.; Bauer, Jan; Monetti, Roberto; Baum, Thomas; Rummeny, Ernst J.; Eckstein, Felix; Matsuura, Maiko; Lochmueller, Eva-Maria; Zysset, Philippe K.; Raeth, Christoph W.

    2012-03-01

    Osteoporosis is a frequent skeletal disease characterised both by loss of bone mineral mass and deterioration of cancellous bone micro-architecture. It can be caused by mechanical disuse, estrogen deficiency or natural age-related resorption process. Numerical analysis of high-resolution images of the trabecular network is recognised as a powerful tool for assessment of structural characteristics. Using μCT images of 73 thoracic and 78 lumbar human vertebral specimens in vitro with isotropic resolution of 26μm we simulate bone atrophy as random resorption of bone surface voxels. Global morphological and topological characteristics provided by four Minkowski Functionals (MF) are calculated for two numerical resorption models with and without conservation of global topological connectivity of the trabecular network, which simulates different types of bone loss in osteoporosis, as it has been described in males and females. Diagnostic performance of morphological and topological characteristics as a function of relative bone loss is evaluated by a correlation analysis with respect to experimentally measured Maximum Compressive Strength (MCS). In both resorption models the second MF, which coincides with bone surface fraction BS/TV, demonstrates almost constant value of Pearson's correlation coefficient with respect to the relative bone loss ▵BV/TV. This morphological characteristic does not vary considerably under age-related random resorption and can be used for predicting bone strength in the elderly. The third and fourth MF demonstrate an increasing correlation coefficients with MCS after applying random bone surface thinning without preserving topological connectivity, what can be used for improvement of evaluation of the current state of the structure.

  7. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on

  8. Why Do We Expect Glacier Melting to Increase Under Global Warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Braithwaite, Roger J.

    2011-01-01

    Media stories about global warming almost always mention “melting glaciers” and their effects upon global sealevel. The reader might therefore ask why the title of this chapter includes a question mark. It may seem blindingly obvious that global warming will cause a rise in global sealevel with a substantial contribution from melting glaciers, but the reasons are less obvious despite the copious literature. For example, the IPCC assessment reports 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2007 all include many re...

  9. Species as Stressors: Heterospecific Interactions and the Cellular Stress Response under Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; King, Emily E; Boyer, Kirsten; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    Anthropogenic global change is predicted to increase the physiological stress of organisms through changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature, pH, and pollution. However, organisms can also experience physiological stress through interactions with other species, especially parasites, predators, and competitors. The stress of species interactions could be an important driver of species' responses to global change as the composition of biological communities change through factors such as distributional and phenological shifts. Interactions between biotic and abiotic stressors could also induce non-linear physiological stress responses under global change. One of the primary means by which organisms deal with physiological stress is through the cellular stress response (CSR), which is broadly the upregulation of a conserved set of genes that facilitate the removal and repair of damaged macromolecules. Here, we present data on behavioral interactions and CSR gene expression for two competing species of intertidal zone porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes and Petrolisthes manimaculis). We found that P. cinctipes and P. manimaculis engage in more agonistic behaviors when interacting with heterospecifics than conspecifics; however, we found no evidence that heterospecific interactions induced a CSR in these species. In addition to our new data, we review the literature with respect to CSR induction via species interactions, focusing on predator-prey systems and heterospecific competition. We find extensive evidence for predators to induce cellular stress and aspects of the CSR in prey, even in the absence of direct physical contact between species. Effects of heterospecific competition on the CSR have been studied far less, but we do find evidence that agonistic interactions with heterospecifics can induce components of the CSR. Across all published studies, there is clear evidence that species interactions can lead to cellular stress and induction of the CSR

  10. The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dingenen, van R.; Dentener, F.J.; Raes, F.; Krol, M.C.; Emberson, L.; Cofala, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are

  11. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA....... It thus explores the systems of reason that educational comparative practices carry through time; focusing on the way configurations are reproduced and transformed, forming the pre-school child as a central curricular variable....

  12. A New Technique for Tracking the Global Maximum Power Point of PV Arrays Operating Under Partial-Shading Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koutroulis, Eftichios; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    The power-voltage characteristic of photovoltaic (PV) arrays operating under partial-shading conditions exhibits multiple local maximum power points (MPPs). In this paper, a new method to track the global MPP is presented, which is based on controlling a dc/dc converter connected at the PV array...... output, such that it behaves as a constant input-power load. The proposed method has the advantage that it can be applied in either stand-alone or grid-connected PV systems comprising PV arrays with unknown electrical characteristics and does not require knowledge about the PV modules configuration...... within the PV array. The experimental results verify that the proposed global MPP method guarantees convergence to the global MPP under any partial-shading conditions. Compared with past-proposed methods, the global MPP tracking process is accomplished after far fewer PV array power perturbation steps....

  13. The Human Thirst for Water Under Global Change: What and where are the Future Risks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Fant, C.; Gao, X.; Strzepek, K.; Reilly, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    The future of water availability and security is of paramount importance. A climacteric challenge toward the future sustainability of this precious resource is to identify where and when water may become substantially limited in the coming decades and what are the key drivers. The sustainability of water resources are affected by many factors that include: population, wealth, energy, land use, as well as climate. Yet, prediction systems are challenged by uncertainties in models and observational support as well as the practical and theoretical limits-to-prediction of the Earth's systems. This limits any one forecast of a potential future as actionable information - and the scientific community has moved toward risk-based assessments to provide a likelihood of outcomes - to the fullest extent possible. We present a synopsis of recently published and ongoing analyses from experiments with the MIT Integrated System Model (IGSM) linked to a Water Resource System (WRS). These experiments address the future of water stress in a global context as well as with regional lenses over the United States and a large portion of Southern and Eastern Asia. By 2050, global economic growth and population change can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% located in developing countries. Combined, socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. Using a large ensemble of scenarios that are consistent across economics, emissions, climate, population, etc., we develop risk portfolios of water stress over a large portion of Asia (Figure 1) and isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth (population and wealth) and climate change. We find the number of people under water stress more than doubles from about 800 million to 1

  14. Investigation of China’s national public relations strategy under globalization : the hotspots around the national media

    OpenAIRE

    雷, 紫雯

    2014-01-01

    This study investigates on China’s national public relations strategy under the globalization by analyzing the national media. In recent years, in order to improve the global public opinion environment, and to improve its national public relations capabilities that match its economic power status, China has actively strengthened its national public relations strategies, including making the national “media go out”, and building world-class media. By researching on the localization of Chinese ...

  15. Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy

  16. Prospects of Russian Agriculture development under global climate and technological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentini, Riccardo; Vasenev, Ivan

    2015-04-01

    crop yields (about 20% in a decade, IPCC 2014), some regions in the world, particularly boreal ones, will benefit from temperature warming due to an increasing of growing season length and mild climate conditions. Several crops not usually suited for growing in northern latitude region will find here favorable conditions and potentially new economic opportunities will rise. Under new climate scenarios we discuss the potential for Russia to expand its agro-food sector and becoming a new important player of future global food supply. We analyze regional climate scenarios at high spatial resolution (8km) and project in the current century the new distribution of agro-ecological zones with the implication of new crops expansion. We also discuss limitation of water supply which may derive from increased evapotranspiration and water demands for irrigation. A final discussion is about the technological challenges and transformation needed in the Russian agricultural sector to take this opportunity. The question is about available technologies, barriers to implement innovation, financial instruments to prevent climate risks and moreover the required agriculture transformation to prevent environmental impacts of agriculture intensification.

  17. Uncertainty of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Peatland under Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Jiang, J.; Huang, Y.; Luo, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Large uncertainty exists in predicting responses of methane fluxes to future climate change. How the uncertainty is related to methane production, oxidation, diffusion, ebullition and plant mediated transportation is still poorly understood, despite of the fact that these processes related to methane emission have been theoretically well represented. At the same time, in methane models many of the parameters are given to an empirical value according to measurements or models decades ago. It is unrealistic to testify all the parameters included in methane modules by actual in situ measurements due to the fact of high temporal and spatial variation. However it would be convincible and feasible to measure in field if models could offer better sampling strategy by telling which parameter is more important for estimation of methane emission, and project a constrained value for key parameters in each process. These feedbacks from field measurements could in turn testify the model accuracy for methane emission projection, as well as the optimization of model structures. We incorporated methane module into an existing process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem model (TECO), to simulate methane emission in a boreal peatland forest, northern Minnesota (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment, SPRUCE). We performed sensitivity test and picked key parameters from the five processes for data assimilation using the Bayesian probability inversion and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. We were able to constrain key parameters related to the five processes in the TECO-SPRUCE Methane model. The constrained model simulated daily methane emission fitted quite well with the data from field measurements. The improvement of more realistic and site-specific parameter values allow for reasonable projections of methane emission under different global changing scenarios, warming and elevated CO2, for instance, given the fact that methane emission

  18. Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carboni, Marta; Guéguen, Maya; Barros, Ceres; Georges, Damien; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Douzet, Rolland; Dullinger, Stefan; Klonner, Guenther; van Kleunen, Mark; Essl, Franz; Bossdorf, Oliver; Haeuser, Emily; Talluto, Matthew V; Moser, Dietmar; Block, Svenja; Conti, Luisa; Dullinger, Iwona; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2018-01-01

    Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by

  19. A Global Synthesis of Managing Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Under Sustainable Groundwater Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohde, Melissa M; Froend, Ray; Howard, Jeanette

    2017-05-01

    Groundwater is a vital water supply worldwide for people and nature. However, species and ecosystems that depend on groundwater for some or all of their water needs, known as groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs), are increasingly becoming threatened worldwide due to growing human water demands. Over the past two decades, the protection and management of GDEs have been incorporated into several water management policy initiatives worldwide including jurisdictions within Australia, the European Union, South Africa, and the United States. Among these, Australia has implemented the most comprehensive framework to manage and protect GDEs through its water policy initiatives. Using a science-based approach, Australia has made good progress at reducing uncertainty when selecting management thresholds for GDEs in their water management plans. This has been achieved by incorporating appropriate metrics for GDEs into water monitoring programs so that information gathered over time can inform management decisions. This adaptive management approach is also accompanied by the application of the "Precautionary Principle" in cases where insufficient information on GDEs exist. Additionally, the integration of risk assessment into Australia's approach has enabled water managers to prioritize the most valuable and vulnerable ecologic assets necessary to manage GDEs under Australia's national sustainable water management legislation. The purpose of this paper is to: (1) compare existing global policy initiatives for the protection and management of GDEs; (2) synthesize Australia's adaptive management approach of GDEs in their state water plans; and (3) highlight opportunities and challenges of applying Australia's approach for managing GDEs under other water management policies worldwide. © 2017 The Authors. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

  20. Accuracy of Kinematic Positioning Using Global Satellite Navigation Systems under Forest Canopies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harri Kaartinen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A harvester enables detailed roundwood data to be collected during harvesting operations by means of the measurement apparatus integrated into its felling head. These data can be used to improve the efficiency of wood procurement and also replace some of the field measurements, and thus provide both less costly and more detailed ground truth for remote sensing based forest inventories. However, the positional accuracy of harvester-collected tree data is not sufficient currently to match the accuracy per individual trees achieved with remote sensing data. The aim in the present study was to test the accuracy of various instruments utilizing global satellite navigation systems (GNSS in motion under forest canopies of varying densities to enable us to get an understanding of the current state-of-the-art in GNSS-based positioning under forest canopies. Tests were conducted using several different combinations of GNSS and inertial measurement unit (IMU mounted on an all-terrain vehicle (ATV “simulating” a moving harvester. The positions of 224 trees along the driving route were measured using a total-station and real-time kinematic GPS. These trees were used as reference items. The position of the ATV was obtained using GNSS and IMU with an accuracy of 0.7 m (root mean squared error (RMSE for 2D positions. For the single-frequency GNSS receivers, the RMSE of real-time 2D GNSS positions was 4.2–9.3 m. Based on these results, it seems that the accuracy of novel single-frequency GNSS devices is not so dependent on forest conditions, whereas the performance of the tested geodetic dual-frequency receiver is very sensitive to the visibility of the satellites. When post-processing can be applied, especially when combined with IMU data, the improvement in the accuracy of the dual-frequency receiver was significant.

  1. Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wen-Ying; Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-05-01

    Soil water storage is a fundamental signal in the land hydrological cycle and changes in soil moisture can affect regional climate. In this study, we used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to investigate changes in the annual range of soil water storage under global warming at northern middle and high latitudes. Results show that future warming could lead to significant declines in snowfall, and a corresponding lack of snowmelt water recharge to the soil, which makes soil water less available during spring and summer. Conversely, more precipitation as rainfall results in higher recharge to soil water during its accumulating season. Thus, the wettest month of soil water gets wetter, and the driest month gets drier, resulting in an increase of the annual range and suggesting that stronger heterogeneity in global water distribution (changing extremes) could occur under global warming; this has implications for water management and water security under a changing climate.

  2. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mori, Shunsuke [Department of Industrial Administration, Faculty of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, Yamasaki 2641, Noda, Chiba 278-8510 (Japan); Kato, Masahiro [Accenture Co., 1-11-44 Akasaka Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-8672 (Japan); Ido, Takahumi [Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Kandanishikicho 2-3, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8443 (Japan)

    2010-01-15

    One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century. (author)

  3. On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowack, Peer J.; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N.; Pyle, John A.

    2017-04-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

  4. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  5. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  6. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  7. Global stability analysis and robust design of multi-time-scale biological networks under parametric uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer-Baese, Anke; Koshkouei, Ali J; Emmett, Mark R; Goodall, David P

    2009-01-01

    Biological networks are prone to internal parametric fluctuations and external noises. Robustness represents a crucial property of these networks, which militates the effects of internal fluctuations and external noises. In this paper biological networks are formulated as coupled nonlinear differential systems operating at different time-scales under vanishing perturbations. In contrast to previous work viewing biological parametric uncertain systems as perturbations to a known nominal linear system, the perturbed biological system is modeled as nonlinear perturbations to a known nonlinear idealized system and is represented by two time-scales (subsystems). In addition, conditions for the existence of a global uniform attractor of the perturbed biological system are presented. By using an appropriate Lyapunov function for the coupled system, a maximal upper bound for the fast time-scale associated with the fast state is derived. The proposed robust system design principles are potentially applicable to robust biosynthetic network design. Finally, two examples of two important biological networks, a neural network and a gene regulatory network, are presented to illustrate the applicability of the developed theoretical framework.

  8. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Onyii Ogbonna

    transforms Nigeria into a leading player in global food markets to grow wealth for millions of farmers. This vision if not .... factors. Entries in the Table show that factors that loaded high under funding/manpower related factors (factor 1) were poor funding to research (0.657), poor funding to teaching (0.651), lack of manpower ...

  9. View PDF file

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Subhra Chakarobarty

    A recent study based on a Survey of more than a lakh children across SİX States basevealed 42% under five are severely or. E moderately underweight in India. 80% of Indian landmass is highly vulnerable to environmental stress. Athat. GE. World Food Program, 2010. FAO news release, 14 September 2010. WHO Global ...

  10. Global Reverse Supply Chain Redesign for Household Plastic Waste under the Emission Trading Scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bing, X.; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, J.M.; Chabaane, A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    With increasing global resource scarcity, waste becomes a resource that can be managed globally. A reverse supply chain network for waste recycling needs to process all the waste with minimum costs and environmental impact. As re-processing of waste is one of the major sources of pollution in the

  11. An empirical, hierarchical typology of tree species assemblages for assessing forest dynamics under global change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer K. Costanza; John W. Coulston; David N. Wear

    2017-01-01

    The composition of tree species occurring in a forest is important and can be affected by global change drivers such as climate change. To inform assessment and projection of global change impacts at broad extents, we used hierarchical cluster analysis and over 120,000 recent forest inventory plots to empirically define forest tree assemblages across the U.S., and...

  12. Agricultural production and water use scenarios in Cyprus under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Zoumides, Christos; Camera, Corrado; Pashiardis, Stelios; Zomeni, Zomenia

    2014-05-01

    In many countries of the world, food demand exceeds the total agricultural production. In semi-arid countries, agricultural water demand often also exceeds the sustainable supply of water resources. These water-stressed countries are expected to become even drier, as a result of global climate change. This will have a significant impact on the future of the agricultural sector and on food security. The aim of the AGWATER project consortium is to provide recommendations for climate change adaptation for the agricultural sector in Cyprus and the wider Mediterranean region. Gridded climate data sets, with 1-km horizontal resolution were prepared for Cyprus for 1980-2010. Regional Climate Model results were statistically downscaled, with the help of spatial weather generators. A new soil map was prepared using a predictive modelling and mapping technique and a large spatial database with soil and environmental parameters. Stakeholder meetings with agriculture and water stakeholders were held to develop future water prices, based on energy scenarios and to identify climate resilient production systems. Green houses, including also hydroponic systems, grapes, potatoes, cactus pears and carob trees were the more frequently identified production systems. The green-blue-water model, based on the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach, has been set up to compute agricultural water demand and yields for all crop fields in Cyprus under selected future scenarios. A set of agricultural production and water use performance indicators are computed by the model, including green and blue water use, crop yield, crop water productivity, net value of crop production and economic water productivity. This work is part of the AGWATER project - AEIFORIA/GEOGRO/0311(BIE)/06 - co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund and the Republic of Cyprus through the Research Promotion Foundation.

  13. Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.; Whetton, P. H.

    2011-04-01

    There remains uncertainty in the projected climate change over the 21st century, in part because of the range of responses forced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations among global climate models. This paper applies a method of estimating distributions and "probability density functions" (PDFs) for forced change, based on the pattern scaling technique and previously used for Australia, to generate changes in temperature and precipitation at locations over the globe, from simulations of 23 CMIP3 models. Changes for 2030 and 2100, under the A1B scenario for concentrations, for both seasonal and annual cases are presented. The PDFs for temperature have a standard deviation that averages 31% of the mean change, and they tend to be positively skewed. The standard deviation for precipitation averages 15% of the base climate mean, leading to five and 95 percentile estimates that are of opposite sign for most of the globe. A further source of uncertainty of change for a particular period of time, such as a decadal average, is the unforced or internal variability of climate. A joint probability distribution approach is used to produce PDFs for decadal means by adding in an estimate of internal variability. In the decade centered on 2030, this broadens the PDFs substantially. The results are related to time series of observations and projections over 1900-2100 for the agricultural regions of Iowa and the Murray-Darling Basin. For most land areas, warming becomes clearly discernable, allowing for both uncertainties, in the next few decades. Data files of the key results are provided.

  14. Spring phenology at different altitudes is becoming more uniform under global warming in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Huang, Jian-Guo; Ma, Qianqian; Hänninen, Heikki; Rossi, Sergio; Piao, Shilong; Bergeron, Yves

    2018-04-26

    Under current global warming, high-elevation regions are expected to experience faster warming than low-elevation regions. However, due to the lack of studies based on long-term large-scale data, the relationship between tree spring phenology and the elevation-dependent warming is unclear. Using 652k records of leaf unfolding of five temperate tree species monitored during 1951-2013 in situ in Europe, we discovered a non-linear trend in the altitudinal sensitivity (S A , shifted days per 100 m in altitude) in spring phenology. A delayed leaf unfolding (2.7 ± 0.6 days per decade) was observed at high elevations possibly due to decreased spring forcing between 1951 and 1980. The delayed leaf unfolding at high-elevation regions was companied by a simultaneous advancing of leaf unfolding at low elevations. These divergent trends contributed to a significant increase in the S A (0.36 ± 0.07 days 100 m -1 per decade) during 1951-1980. Since 1980, the S A started to decline with a rate of -0.32 ± 0.07 days 100 m -1 per decade, possibly due to reduced chilling at low elevations and improved efficiency of spring forcing in advancing the leaf unfolding at high elevations, the latter being caused by increased chilling. Our results suggest that due to both different temperature changes at the different altitudes, and the different tree responses to these changes, the tree phenology has shifted at different rates leading to a more uniform phenology at different altitudes during recent decades. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. China's energy consumption under the global economic crisis: Decomposition and sectoral analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fangyi; Song, Zhouying; Liu, Weidong

    2014-01-01

    It is now widely recognized that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Most countries′ energy demands declined during the economic depression of 2008–2009 when a worldwide economic crisis occurred. As an export-oriented economy, China suffered a serious exports decline in the course of the crisis. However, it was found that energy consumption continued to increase. Against such a background, this paper aims to assess and explain the factors causing the growth of energy consumption in China. First, we will explain the impact of domestic final use and international trade on energy consumption by using decomposition analysis. Second, embodied energy and its variation across sectors are quantified to identify the key sectors contributing to the growth. Lastly, the policy implications for long-term energy conservation are discussed. The results show that the decline in exports was one of the driving forces for energy consumption reduction in the crisis, but that the growth of domestic demand in manufacturing and construction, largely stimulated by economic stimulus plans, had the opposite effect on energy consumption. International trade contributed to decreasing energy consumption of China during and after the crisis because the structure of exports and imports changed in this period. - Highlights: • We analyze the reasons for China's energy consumption change under the global economic crisis during 2007–2010. • Domestic final use growth, especially in construction and manufacturing of machinery and equipment, resulted in energy consumption increase. • International trade is identified as a driver of energy consumption reduction during and after the crisis. • Increasing China's share of consumption or reducing its share of investment in the GDP can reduce national energy intensity

  16. An Assessment of Global Electric-Sector Water Demands to 2100 under the Latest Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ando, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Electricity demands are likely to continue growing in the coming decades, due to population and economy growth. The electric growth could lead water demands to increase because some kinds of power generation methods such as thermal power generation require large amount of water. Many countries still rely on thermal power generation. Thus, we are concerned that electricity generation could be a big factor to accelerate water scarcity. In this study, to assess the electric-sector impacts on water demands, we estimated future electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in 17 regions from 2010 to 2100. The water withdrawal and consumption are calculated by using electricity generation and water demand intensities. The data set of future electricity generation is derived by the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model. This model applied the latest scenarios for global climate change studies, the socio-economic scenario (SSPs) and the radiative forcing scenario (RCPs). We used the water demands intensity data set of Macknick et al. (2012). Water demand intensities for power plants considerably varies by power plant cooling systems. Therefore, we constructed cooling system share scenarios. Our results indicated that by 2100, the water withdrawal and consumption in current developing countries increased and caught up with that in current developed countries. We found that socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) has large impacts on the water withdrawal and consumption. Sustainable society (SSP1) and conventional development society (SSP5) have higher economic growth than fragmentation society (SSP3). The sustainable society needs smaller amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. In contrast, the conventional development society needs larger amount of the water withdrawal and consumption compared with fragmentation society. Therefore, higher economic growth did not always lead less electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption. A shift of

  17. Exploring the biogeophysical limits of global food production under different climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Vrese, Philipp; Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximizes the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing us to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. For three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), we show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only a few agricultural areas have to be abandoned owing to declines in productivity, while increasing temperatures allow for the expansion of croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated for by an expansion in regions that were previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when greenhouse gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even for the idealized scenarios investigated in this study.

  18. Are PDF Documents Accessible?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mireia Ribera Turró

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Adobe PDF is one of the most widely used formats in scientific communications and in administrative documents. In its latest versions it has incorporated structural tags and improvements that increase its level of accessibility. This article reviews the concept of accessibility in the reading of digital documents and evaluates the accessibility of PDF according to the most widely established standards.

  19. Under the (legal radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammonds Rachel

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers

  20. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. Methods The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Results Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. Conclusions In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on. PMID

  1. Under the (legal) radar screen: global health initiatives and international human rights obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammonds, Rachel; Ooms, Gorik; Vandenhole, Wouter

    2012-11-15

    Given that many low income countries are heavily reliant on external assistance to fund their health sectors the acceptance of obligations of international assistance and cooperation with regard to the right to health (global health obligations) is insufficiently understood and studied by international health and human rights scholars. Over the past decade Global Health Initiatives, like the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) have adopted novel approaches to engaging with stakeholders in high and low income countries. This article explores how this experience impacted on acceptance of the international obligation to (help) fulfil the right to health beyond borders. The authors conducted an extensive review of international human rights law literature, transnational legal process literature, global public health literature and grey literature pertaining to Global Health Initiatives. To complement this desk work and deepen their understanding of how and why different legal norms evolve the authors conducted 19 in-depth key informant interviews with actors engaged with three stakeholders; the European Union, the United States and Belgium. The authors then analysed the interviews through a transnational legal process lens. Through according value to the process of examining how and why different legal norms evolve transnational legal process offers us a tool for engaging with the dynamism of developments in global health suggesting that operationalising global health obligations could advance the right to health for all. In many low-income countries the health sector is heavily dependent on external assistance to fulfil the right to health of people thus it is vital that policies and tools for delivering reliable, long-term assistance are developed so that the right to health for all becomes more than a dream. Our research suggests that the Global Fund experience offers lessons to build on.

  2. Public-private partnerships and responsibility under international law: a global health perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clarke, L.

    2014-01-01

    Partnerships between the public and private sectors are an increasingly accepted method to deal with pressing global issues, such as those relating to health. Partnerships, comprised of states and international organizations (public sector) and companies, non-governmental organizations, research

  3. Marine archaea and archaeal viruses under global change [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Danovaro

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Global change is altering oceanic temperature, salinity, pH, and oxygen concentration, directly and indirectly influencing marine microbial food web structure and function. As microbes represent >90% of the ocean’s biomass and are major drivers of biogeochemical cycles, understanding their responses to such changes is fundamental for predicting the consequences of global change on ecosystem functioning. Recent findings indicate that marine archaea and archaeal viruses are active and relevant components of marine microbial assemblages, far more abundant and diverse than was previously thought. Further research is urgently needed to better understand the impacts of global change on virus–archaea dynamics and how archaea and their viruses can interactively influence the ocean’s feedbacks on global change.

  4. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshi; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  5. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-08

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

  6. The vulnerability of animal and human health to parasites under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherst, R W

    2001-07-01

    The term 'global change' is used to encompass all of the significant drivers of environmental change as experienced by hosts, parasites and parasite managers. The term includes changes in climate and climate variability, atmospheric composition, land use and land cover including deforestation and urbanisation, bio-geochemistry, globalisation of trade and transport, the spread of alien species, human health and technology. A subset of land use issues relates to the management of protective technologies in relation to residues in food and the environment and the emergence of resistance. Another is the question of changing biodiversity of both parasites and their associated natural enemies, and the effects on the host--parasite relationship and on parasite management. A framework for studying impacts of global change is proposed and illustrated with field data, and CLIMEX and simulation modelling of the cattle tick Boophilus microplus in Australia. Parasitology suffers from the perception that the key impacts of global change will be driven by changes at lower trophic levels, with parasitic interactions being treated as secondary effects. This is incorrect because the environment mediates host-parasite interactions as much as it affects parasites directly. Parasitologists need to strive for holistic solutions to the management of animal and human health, within a wider context of overall management of those systems, if they are to make a meaningful contribution to global efforts aimed at coping with global change.

  7. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  8. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  9. Mediterranean, invasive, woody species grow larger than their less-invasive counterparts under potential global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erskine-Ogden, Jennifer; Grotkopp, Eva; Rejmánek, Marcel

    2016-04-01

    Revealing biological differences between invasive and noninvasive species is essential for predicting species' distribution changes with global environmental change. While most research has focused on differences between invasive and noninvasive species under favorable conditions using herbaceous species, invasive woody angiosperms are also of great ecological concern. Our study focused on how growth and allocation may change for invasive and noninvasive, mediterranean, woody angiosperms under future conditions caused by global change, specifically increased nitrogen deposition and drought. We tested how seedling functional traits differed between invasive and noninvasive woody angiosperms under different experimental conditions in a greenhouse setting. We compared growth rates and allocation patterns using two levels of soil nitrogen and three levels of watering. We also examined trait log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and increases in water. Our study sampled angiosperm trees and shrubs, incorporating congeneric/confamilial relationships through 13 phylogenetically controlled contrasts. Three functional traits were highly and positively associated with plant invasiveness for most conditions studied: seedling plant mass, leaf area, and height. Invasive species also had significantly higher root mass ratios at low water regardless of nitrogen input. Invasive and noninvasive species had similar log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and watering for studied traits. Mediterranean, woody, invasive species' larger mass, leaf area, and early height advantage under elevated nitrogen input and increased root production in drought conditions may lead to increased invasion of these species with expected global climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  10. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  11. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis; Findell, Kirsten; Lintner, Benjamin; Giannini, Alessandra; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Cheruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.

    2016-01-01

    The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

  12. IT Investment Guidelines in Taiwan's IT Industry under a Global Economic Downturn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Un Un

    2011-01-01

    The current qualitative phenomenological study focused on how information technology (IT) leaders managed IT investment during the global economic downturn in the Taiwan IT industry. Organizations around the world spend billions of dollars on IT-related products and services every year. Determining an effective IT investment plan is a complex task…

  13. Molecular mechanisms responsive to dehydration may impact the invasiveness of perennial weeds under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leafy spurge is an invasive perennial weed in the great plains of the US and Canada. The ability of this herbaceous weed to regenerate new shoot growth from an abundance of crown and root buds after severe abiotic stress is critical for survival. Due to its adaptable and aggressive nature, global cl...

  14. Citizenship Education under Discourses of Nationalism, Globalization, and Cosmopolitanism: Illustrations from China and the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camicia, Steven P.; Zhu, Juanjuan

    2011-01-01

    The authors, one from China and one from the United States, present a theoretical framework for understanding the discursive fields of citizenship education as composed, in large part, of the discourses of nationalism, globalization, and cosmopolitanism. The framework is illustrated by examples from citizenship education in China and the United…

  15. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Lanen, Van H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  16. Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anisimov, O.; Vandenberghe, J.; Lobanov, V.; Kondratiev, A.

    2008-01-01

    Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river

  17. Monitoring Multitemporal Soil Moisture, Rainfall, and ET in Lake Manatee Watershed, South Florida under Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2009-12-01

    Ni-Bin Chang1, Ammarin Daranpob 1, and Y. Jeffrey Yang2 1Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando FL, USA 2Water Supply and Water Resources Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA ASBTRACT: Global climate change and its related impacts on water supply are universally recognized. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is based on long term changes in the temperature of the surface of the North Atlantic Ocean, is a source of changes in river flow patterns in Florida. The AMO has a multi-decadal frequency. Under its impact, several distinct types of river patterns were identified within Florida, including a Southern River Pattern (SRP), a Northern River Pattern (NRP), a Bimodal River Pattern (BRP), etc. (Kelley and Gore, 2008). Some SRPs are present in the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). Changes in river flows occur because significant sea surface temperature (SST) changes affect continental rainfall patterns. It had been observed that, between AMO warm (i.e., from 1939 to 1968) and cold phases (i.e., from 1969 to 1993), the average daily inflow to Lake Okeechobee varies by 40% in the transition from the warm to cold phases in South Florida. The Manatee County is located in the Southern Water Use Caution Area (SWUCA) due to the depletion of the Upper Floridian Aquifer and its entire western portion of the County is designated as part of the Most Impacted Area (MIA) within the Eastern Tampa Bay Water Use Caution Area relative to the SWUCA. Major source of Manatee County’s water is an 332 Km2 (82,000-acre) watershed (i.e., Lake Manatee Watershed) that drains into the man-made Lake Manatee Reservoir. The lake has a total volume of 0.21 billion m3 (7.5 billion gallons) and will cover 7.3 Km2 (1,800 acres) when full. The proper use of remote sensing images and sensor network technologies can provide information on both spatial and

  18. Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Kevin Martin

    The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

  19. Nature-based solutions for urban landscapes under post-industrialization and globalization: Barcelona versus Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Peilei; Ouyang, Zutao; Basnou, Corina; Pino, Joan; Park, Hogeun; Chen, Jiquan

    2017-07-01

    Using Barcelona and Shanghai as case studies, we examined the nature-based solutions (NBS) in urban settings-specifically within cities experiencing post-industrialization and globalization. Our specific research questions are: (1) What are the spatiotemporal changes in urban built-up land and green space in Barcelona and Shanghai? (2) What are the relationships between economic development, exemplified by post-industrialization, globalization, and urban green space? Urban land use and green space change were evaluated using data derived from a variety of sources, including satellite images, landscape matrix indicators, and a land conversion matrix. The relationships between economic development, globalization, and environmental quality were analyzed through partial least squares structural equation modeling based on secondary statistical data. Both Barcelona and Shanghai have undergone rapid urbanization, with urban expansion in Barcelona beginning in the 1960s-1970s and in Shanghai in the last decade. While Barcelona's urban green space and green space per capita began declining between the 1950s and 1990s, they increased slightly over the past two decades. Shanghai, however, has consistently and significantly improved urban green space and green space per capita over the past six decades, especially since the economic reform in 1978. Economic development has a direct and significant influence on urban green space for both cities and post-industrialization had served as the main driving force for urban landscape change in Barcelona and Shanghai. Based on secondary statistical and qualitative data from on-site observations and interviews with local experts, we highlighted the institution's role in NBS planning. Furthermore, aspiration to become a global or globalizing city motivated both cities to use NBS planning as a place-making tool to attract global investment, which is reflected in various governing policies and regulations. The cities' effort to achieve a

  20. Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

    2017-12-01

    Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

  1. Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

    2017-06-01

    The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

  2. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

  3. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    Full Text Available Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS and the Climate Research Unit (CRU. Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection. Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  4. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  5. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways - Part 2: Water availability and scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Yoshikawa, S.; Masaki, Y.; Hijioka, Y.; Kainuma, M.; Kanamori, Y.; Masui, T.; Takahashi, K.; Kanae, S.

    2013-07-01

    A global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century was conducted under the latest socio-economic scenario for global change studies, namely Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). SSPs depict five global situations with substantially different socio-economic conditions. In the accompanying paper, a water use scenario compatible with the SSPs was developed. This scenario considers not only quantitative socio-economic factors such as population and electricity production but also qualitative ones such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. In this paper, water availability and water scarcity were assessed using a global hydrological model called H08. H08 simulates both the natural water cycle and major human activities such as water abstraction and reservoir operation. It simulates water availability and use at daily time intervals at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. A series of global hydrological simulations were conducted under the SSPs, taking into account different climate policy options and the results of climate models. Water scarcity was assessed using an index termed the Cumulative Abstraction to Demand ratio, which is expressed as the accumulation of daily water abstraction from a river divided by the daily consumption-based potential water demand. This index can be used to express whether renewable water resources are available from rivers when required. The results suggested that by 2071-2100 the population living under severely water-stressed conditions for SSP1-5 will reach 2588-2793 × 106 (39-42% of total population), 3966-4298 × 106 (46-50%), 5334-5643 × 106 (52-55%), 3427-3786 × 106 (40-45%), 3164-3379 × 106 (46-49%) respectively, if climate policies are not adopted. Even in SSP1 (the scenario with least change in water use and climate) global water scarcity increases considerably, as compared to the present-day. This is mainly due to the growth in population and economic activity in developing

  6. Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-01

    Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those assoc...

  7. The growth of finfish in global open-ocean aquaculture under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Dane H; Levin, Simon A; Watson, James R

    2017-10-11

    Aquaculture production is projected to expand from land-based operations to the open ocean as demand for seafood grows and competition increases for inputs to land-based aquaculture, such as freshwater and suitable land. In contrast to land-based production, open-ocean aquaculture is constrained by oceanographic factors, such as current speeds and seawater temperature, which are dynamic in time and space, and cannot easily be controlled. As such, the potential for offshore aquaculture to increase seafood production is tied to the physical state of the oceans. We employ a novel spatial model to estimate the potential of open-ocean finfish aquaculture globally, given physical, biological and technological constraints. Finfish growth potential for three common aquaculture species representing different thermal guilds-Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata ) and cobia ( Rachycentron canadum )-is compared across species and regions and with climate change, based on outputs of a high-resolution global climate model. Globally, there are ample areas that are physically suitable for fish growth and potential expansion of the nascent aquaculture industry. The effects of climate change are heterogeneous across species and regions, but areas with existing aquaculture industries are likely to see increases in growth rates. In areas where climate change results in reduced growth rates, adaptation measures, such as selective breeding, can probably offset potential production losses. © 2017 The Author(s).

  8. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B Kramer

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  9. Coastal livelihood transitions under globalization with implications for trans-ecosystem interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Daniel B; Stevens, Kara; Williams, Nicholas E; Sistla, Seeta A; Roddy, Adam B; Urquhart, Gerald R

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic threats to natural systems can be exacerbated due to connectivity between marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, complicating the already daunting task of governance across the land-sea interface. Globalization, including new access to markets, can change social-ecological, land-sea linkages via livelihood responses and adaptations by local people. As a first step in understanding these trans-ecosystem effects, we examined exit and entry decisions of artisanal fishers and smallholder farmers on the rapidly globalizing Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. We found that exit and entry decisions demonstrated clear temporal and spatial patterns and that these decisions differed by livelihood. In addition to household characteristics, livelihood exit and entry decisions were strongly affected by new access to regional and global markets. The natural resource implications of these livelihood decisions are potentially profound as they provide novel linkages and spatially-explicit feedbacks between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Our findings support the need for more scientific inquiry in understanding trans-ecosystem tradeoffs due to linked-livelihood transitions as well as the need for a trans-ecosystem approach to natural resource management and development policy in rapidly changing coastal regions.

  10. Global reverse supply chain design for solid waste recycling under uncertainties and carbon emission constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhitao; Elomri, Adel; Pokharel, Shaligram; Zhang, Qin; Ming, X G; Liu, Wenjie

    2017-06-01

    The emergence of concerns over environmental protection, resource conservation as well as the development of logistics operations and manufacturing technology has led several countries to implement formal collection and recycling systems of solid waste. Such recycling system has the benefits of reducing environmental pollution, boosting the economy by creating new jobs, and generating income from trading the recyclable materials. This leads to the formation of a global reverse supply chain (GRSC) of solid waste. In this paper, we investigate the design of such a GRSC with a special emphasis on three aspects; (1) uncertainty of waste collection levels, (2) associated carbon emissions, and (3) challenges posed by the supply chain's global aspect, particularly the maritime transportation costs and currency exchange rates. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to integrate the three above-mentioned important aspects in the design of a GRSC. We have used mixed integer-linear programming method along with robust optimization to develop the model which is validated using a sample case study of e-waste management. Our results show that using a robust model by taking the complex interactions characterizing global reverse supply chain networks into account, we can create a better GRSC. The effect of uncertainties and carbon constraints on decisions to reduce costs and emissions are also shown. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Haidong; Liddell, Chelsea A; Coates, Matthew M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of redu...... levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development....

  12. to view fulltext PDF

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    http://www.ias.ac.in/jgenet/OnlineResources/90/e34.pdf. Morinha F., Carvalho M., Ferro A., Guedes-Pinto H., Rodrigues R. and Bastos E. 2011 Molecular sexing and analysis of CHD1-Z and. CHD1-W sequence variations in wild common quail (Coturnix c. coturnix) and domesticated Japanese quail (Coturnix c. japonica).

  13. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr Olusoji

    IMuki Christopher Vbong,' Ago Boniface Vji.' EfifJk Eyo EjifJk,' Ebaghe God",in Abeng,' Nnorom. Felix,'. 'Deparlment 0fOh,lelrics olUl G)"Iwecology, Vnil"er.,iry ..... Gestational trophoblaslic disease. William's Gynecology.pdf, McGraw Hill access Medicine 2008: 1509·1541. 136. Moore L. Hydatidiform mole. Medscapc.

  14. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONIKOYI

    of Lake Chad) according to forecasts, will worsen by 2025, further increasing women and girl's burden of collecting and ... Nigeria climate change.org/docs/ 2011/case_study_Greenwatch.pdf). Most often, the responsibility of provision of water supply infrastructure are left within the domain of the government. This is because ...

  15. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HENRY

    Anaemia is common in human immunodeficiency virus infection, particularly in patients with acquired immunodeficiency ... The combined effect of all these factors in pregnancy will worsen the poor maternal and ... 010_country_progress_report_en.pdf. 4. Agboola A. Severe anaemia in pregnancy: In: Agboola A. (Editor).

  16. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  17. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  18. Changes of cooling near mesopause under global warming from observations and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhov, I. I.; Semenov, A. I.; Volodin, E. M.; Dembitskaya, M. A.

    2017-07-01

    The results of joint analysis of temperature variations near mesopause from long-term measurements at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS in 1960-2015 and variations of surface air temperature characterizing global climate change. Together with variations of temperature at the mesopause T ms from measurements of the hydroxyl emissions we analyzed the temperature variations near mesopause T m reduced to the same level of solar activity. The observed strong decrease in temperature near mesopause during last decades, particularly in winter, with its tendency to slow down since the 1980's is was detected against the background of general increase in the surface air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere T NHs and the Earth as a whole. It was revealed a sharp drop in winter temperature near mesopause in 1970s. and its synchronicity with the shift in climatic features at the surface associated with changes in formation of El Nino events and their impact on the global climate. The general significant negative correlation of temperature variations near mesopause and T NHs detected from 56-year observational data was not accompanied by any significant coherence between the most long-period temperature variations from the cross-wavelet analysis. To assess the possible manifestation of this coherence the results of numerical simulations with a global climate model were used. According to model simulations for the 20-21 centuries taking into account anthropogenic forcings for significant coherence between long-term variations T m and T NHs the prolonged observations are required for temperature near mesopause-about a century or more.

  19. Very small glaciers under climate change: from the local to the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huss, M.; Fischer, M.

    2015-12-01

    Very small glaciers (climate archive. Very small glaciers have generally shorter response times than valley glaciers and their mass balance is strongly dependent on snow redistribution processes. Worldwide glacier monitoring has focused on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a relatively limited understanding of the behavior of very small glaciers. With warming climate there is an increasing concern that very small glaciers might be the first to disappear. Already in the next decades this might result in the complete deglaciation of mountain ranges with glacier equilibrium lines close to the highest peaks, such as in the Rocky Mountains, the European Alps, the Andes or parts of High Mountain Asia. In this contribution, we present a comprehensive modelling framework to assess past and future changes in very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and dynamic changes in debris-coverage, and computes e.g. distributed mass balance, englacial temperature and proglacial runoff. Detailed glacier projections until 2060 are shown for the Swiss Alps based on new data sets, and the 21st century contribution of all very small glaciers worldwide to sea-level rise is quantified using a global model. Grid-based modelling of surface mass balance and retreat for 1133 very small glaciers in Switzerland indicates that 70% of them will completely vanish within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find relatively high static and dynamic sensitivities for gently-sloping glaciers. At the global scale, glaciers presently smaller than 1 km2 make up for only 0.7% of total ice volume but account for 6.7% of sea-level rise contribution during the period 2015-2025. This indicates that very small glaciers are a non-negligible component of global glacier change, at least in the near

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY UNDER AGGRAVATION OF THE CONTEMPORARY GLOBAL ISSUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Grazhevska

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the role and importance of corporate social responsibility as an important mechanism for overcoming the crisis of the welfare state and to mitigate the social problems caused by the world globalization processes. The experience of post-socialist countries, the Baltic States and Ukraine in this field is analyzed and barriers to effective implementation of CSR in the national economy are identified. The priority of the state policy to promote socially responsible business behavior in Ukraine is proved.

  1. Prospects of Development of the Transit Function of Georgia under the Conditions of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavtaradze Medea

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of our research is to analyze the effectiveness of transit potential of Georgia forthe sustainable development of the country's economy in terms of globalization and to evaluate therole of transport infrastructure in the field of transport. The object of the research is a transitfunction, transport infrastructure and an added value in transport system. The main method of theresearch is correlation-regressive analysis, assessment of value added in transport system and itsshare determining in GDP. The conclusion of the research indicates that the development of thetransport industry will cause synergistic effect to accelerate development of other prospectivesectors.

  2. Impact of Intellectual Property in National and Business Development under the Context of the Current Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stalin Ballesteros García

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the document is to show the impact of the intellectual property on the national and enterprise development in the globalization context since the early twenty-first century. First, it is a historical telling of the intellectual property and its role in the international society; then outlining the arguments to infer the incidence degree of the intellectual property in the economic development of countries and then discussing the inclusion impact of concepts directly related to the intellectual property in business growth activities. It concludes with a reflection on the Colombian situation, in public and private context, in terms of intellectual property.

  3. Global Combustion Mechanisms for Use in CFD Modeling under Oxy-Fuel Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jimmy; Rasmussen, Christian Lund; Giselsson, Trine

    2009-01-01

    by the detailed mechanism as well as the correct equilibrium concentration. A CFD analysis of a propane oxy-fuel flame has been performed using both the original and modified mechanisms. Compared to the original schemes, the modified WD mechanism improved the prediction of the temperature field and of CO......Two global multistep schemes, the two-step mechanism of Westbrook and Dryer (WD) and the four-step mechanism of Jones and Lindstedt (JL), have been refined for oxy-fuel conditions. Reference calculations were conducted with a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, validated for oxy-fuel combustion...

  4. Analysis of Under Graduated Students' Perceptions Concerning Green House Effect, Global Warming and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Oluk, Esin Akçam; Oluk, Sami

    2007-01-01

    History education coııtributes sigııifıcantly to the individuals to provide themselves a plural This study was done at the Celal Bayar Universiry, Education Faculty (Demirci-Manisa). The sample of the study included 24 students, trainning at the 7th semestry. The aim of the study was to determine the higher students perception of green house effect, global warming and climate change. Data was gathered by semi structured interview and analyzed by content analysis. Although all students said th...

  5. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  6. Direct photon production and PDF fits reloaded

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, John M.; Rojo, Juan; Slade, Emma; Williams, Ciaran

    2018-02-08

    Direct photon production in hadronic collisions provides a handle on the gluon PDF by means of the QCD Compton scattering process. In this work we revisit the impact of direct photon production on a global PDF analysis, motivated by the recent availability of the next-to-next-to-leading (NNLO) calculation for this process. We demonstrate that the inclusion of NNLO QCD and leading-logarithmic electroweak corrections leads to a good quantitative agreement with the ATLAS measurements at 8 TeV and 13 TeV, except for the most forward rapidity region in the former case. By including the ATLAS 8 TeV direct photon production data in the NNPDF3.1 NNLO global analysis, we assess its impact on the medium-x gluon. We also study the constraining power of the direct photon production measurements on PDF fits based on different datasets, in particular on the NNPDF3.1 no-LHC and collider-only fits. We also present updated NNLO theoretical predictions for direct photon production at 13 TeV that include the constraints from the 8 TeV measurements.

  7. Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

    2017-07-01

    Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Global Climate Change Response Program, Water Yield in Semiarid Environment Under Projected Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the practical application of a distributed parameter climate vegetation hydrologic model (CVHM) and its ability to simulate hydrologic response under existing conditions and under assumed CO2-induced climate and vegetation change. Applying the model to the Weber River basin provided a basis for determining the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response. By using a "what if" scenario this model included the changes in plant transpiration rates and in vegetation ...

  9. Global Proteomics Reveal An Atypical Strategy for Carbon/Nitrogen Assimilation by a Cyanobacterium Under Diverse Environmental Perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wegener, Kimberly M.; Singh, Abhay K.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Elvitigala, Thanura R.; Welsh, Eric A.; Keren, Nir S.; Gritsenko, Marina A.; Ghosh, Bijoy K.; Camp, David G.; Smith, Richard D.; Pakrasi, Himadri B.

    2010-12-01

    Cyanobacteria, the only prokaryotes capable of oxygenic photosynthesis, are present in diverse ecological niches and play crucial roles in global carbon and nitrogen cycles. To proliferate in nature, cyanobacteria utilize a host of stress responses to accommodate periodic changes in environmental conditions. A detailed knowledge of the composition of, as well as the dynamic changes in, the proteome is necessary to gain fundamental insights into such stress responses. Toward this goal, we have performed a largescale proteomic analysis of the widely studied model cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under 33 different environmental conditions. The resulting high-quality dataset consists of 22,318 unique peptides corresponding to 1,955 proteins, a coverage of 53% of the predicted proteome. Quantitative determination of protein abundances has led to the identification of 1,198 differentially regulated proteins. Notably, our analysis revealed that a common stress response under various environmental perturbations, irrespective of amplitude and duration, is the activation of atypical pathways for the acquisition of carbon and nitrogen from urea and arginine. In particular, arginine is catabolized via putrescine to produce succinate and glutamate, sources of carbon and nitrogen, respectively. This study provides the most comprehensive functional and quantitative analysis of the Synechocystis proteome to date, and shows that a significant stress response of cyanobacteria involves an uncommon mode of acquisition of carbon and nitrogen. Oxygenic phototrophic prokaryotes, the progenitors of the chloroplast, are crucial to global oxygen production and worldwide carbon and nitrogen cycles. These microalgae are robust organisms capable carbon neutral biofuel production. Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 has historically been a model cyanobacterium for photosynthetic research and is emerging as a promising biofuel platform. Cellular responses are severely modified by environmental

  10. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  11. Stealing the sacred: Why 'global heritage' discourse is perceived as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stealing the sacred: Why 'global heritage' discourse is perceived as a frontal attack on local heritage-making in Madagascar. ... Asked Questions about PDFs. Alternatively, you can download the PDF file directly to your computer, from where it can be opened using a PDF reader. To download the PDF, click the Download ...

  12. Techniques for Analyzing the Attractiveness of International Commodity Markets Under Conditions of Economic Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olha Pryhara

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examines existing techniques and proposes its own for analyzing the attractiveness of international commodity markets in light of the globalization of world economic processes. Taking into account the supranational nature of the world economic environment when examining categories in the attractiveness of international commodity markets, the author introduces a multilevel system of indicators: market attractiveness at the mega-level – global level; market attractiveness at the macro-level national level; market attractiveness at the mezo-level – level of an individual sector. The attractiveness of international commodity markets is considered to be the degree of conformity between market environment factors and the mega-, macro- and mezo-levels of the economic interests of enterprises concerning the entry into and strategies for their activity on the international commodity markets in the short-, medium- and long-term. The author designs a stage-by-stage technique for strategically analyzing the attractiveness of international commodity markets in order to frame efficient market strategies of enterprises. Relying on the proposed techniques, she rates the integrated indicators of market accessibility and the possibility of realizing the economic interests of enterprises in target markets, bringing the index data into a matrix of «market accessibility – opportunity for realizing the economic interests of enterprises.» The analysis of a country’s position in the matrix makes it possible to frame efficient market strategies for enterprises.

  13. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C; Pendergrass, Angeline G; Battisti, David S

    2014-11-25

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR.

  14. Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, Aaron; Armour, Kyle C.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Battisti, David S.

    2014-01-01

    In response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, high-end general circulation models (GCMs) simulate an accumulation of energy at the top of the atmosphere not through a reduction in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)—as one might expect from greenhouse gas forcing—but through an enhancement of net absorbed solar radiation (ASR). A simple linear radiative feedback framework is used to explain this counterintuitive behavior. It is found that the timescale over which OLR returns to its initial value after a CO2 perturbation depends sensitively on the magnitude of shortwave (SW) feedbacks. If SW feedbacks are sufficiently positive, OLR recovers within merely several decades, and any subsequent global energy accumulation is because of enhanced ASR only. In the GCM mean, this OLR recovery timescale is only 20 y because of robust SW water vapor and surface albedo feedbacks. However, a large spread in the net SW feedback across models (because of clouds) produces a range of OLR responses; in those few models with a weak SW feedback, OLR takes centuries to recover, and energy accumulation is dominated by reduced OLR. Observational constraints of radiative feedbacks—from satellite radiation and surface temperature data—suggest an OLR recovery timescale of decades or less, consistent with the majority of GCMs. Altogether, these results suggest that, although greenhouse gas forcing predominantly acts to reduce OLR, the resulting global warming is likely caused by enhanced ASR. PMID:25385628

  15. "Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexis

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

  16. ASSESSING GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY UNDER COLDEST AND WARMEST PERIODS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDINAL REGIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleonora Runtunuwu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Effect of climate change on water balance will play a key role in the biosphere system. To study the global climate change impact on water balance during 95-year period (1901-1995, long-term grid climatic data including global mean monthly temperature and precipitation at 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution were analysed. The trend and variation of climate change, the time series of monthly air temperature and precipitation data were aggregated into annual arithmetic means for two extreme periods (1901-1920 and 1990-1995. The potential evapotranspiration (Eo was calculated using Thornthwaite method.The changes in mean annual value were obtained by subtracting the maximum period data from 1990 to 1995 (Max with the minimum period data from 1901 to 1920 (Min. The results revealed that over 95-year period, mean global air temperature increased by 0.57oC. The temperature increase varied greatly in Asia, with more than 3.0oC, especially at 45-70oN, as well over the northern part of America (60-65oN and Europe (55- 75oN. In low latitude across Asia, Africa, and South America, the variation was less than 1.5oC. In 80-85ºN region, the variation was relatively small and at higher latitudes it increasedsignificantly. Precipitation varied temporally and spatially. In the 40-45ºN and 40-45ºS regions, increasing precipitation of more than 100 mm occurred during the June-August andSeptember-November, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Eo increase of 2000 mm during 95 years occurred in the tropical northern America, middle Africa, and South-East Asia. A grid in Central Java of Indonesia showed that the Eo increase of 2500 mm during 95 years resulted in the decrease of growing period by 100 days. In coping with climate change, adjustment of cropping calendar is imperative.

  17. Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

    2016-04-01

    Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions

  18. Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azad, Sarita; Rajeevan, M

    2016-02-03

    EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.

  19. Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Blecker

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

  20. Monsoon variability in the Himalayas under the condition of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan Keqin; Yao Tandong

    2003-01-01

    An ice core-drilling program was carried out at the accumulation area of Dasuopu glacier (28deg23'N, 85deg43'E, 7100 m a.s.l.) in the central Himalayas in 1997. The ice core was analyzed continuously for stable isotopes (δ 18 O), and major ions throughout the core. Cycles indicated by δ 18 O, cations were identified and counted as seasonal fluctuations as annual increment from maximum to maximum values. Reconstructed 300-year annual net accumulation (water equivalent) from the core, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. The accumulation trend, separated from the time series, shows a strong negative correlation to Northern Hemisphere temperature. Generally, as northern hemisphere temperature increases 0.1degC, the accumulation decreases about 80 mm, reflecting monsoon rainfall in the central Himalayas has decreased over the past decades in the condition of global warming. (author)

  1. The Impact of the Bioeconomy on the Economic Development under the Global Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romeo-Victor Ionescu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the idea that bioeconomy represents a real solution to the future sustainable development. The main objectives of the paper consist of an evaluation of the bioeconomy’s impact on the global economy, followed by finding solutions for the Romanian economy. The bioeconomy is a new concept in Romania. As a result, there are just a few theoretical contributions to this topic area. This is why, we realised a pertinent analysis, in order to quantify the impact of the bioeconomy on the EU economy and to find pertinent solutions for the development of this approach in Romania. The main conclusion of the paper is that bioeconomy is a good solution for a sustainable development in Romania.

  2. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO(2) emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, L A Barreto de

    2010-03-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  3. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  4. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

    2018-02-01

    The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

  5. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  6. Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanf, Matthieu; Nacher, Mathieu; Guihenneuc, Chantal; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale; Chavance, Michel

    2013-11-08

    To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants. Longitudinal study. 193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09. Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects. National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects. By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

  7. A Global Chance-Constraint for Stochastic Inventory Systems under Service Level Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, R.; Tarim, S.A.; Hnich, B.; Prestwich, S.

    2008-01-01

    We consider a class of production/inventory control problems that has a single product and a single stocking location, for which a stochastic demand with a known non-stationary probability distribution is given. Under the widely-known replenishment cycle policy the problem of computing policy

  8. Water scarcity under scenarios for global climate change and regional development in semiarid Northeastern Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Araújo, José Carlos; Döll, Petra; Güntner, Andreas; Krol, Martinus S.; Rodrigues Abreu, Cláudia Beghini; Hauschild, Maike; Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario

    2004-01-01

    The State of Ceará, located in semiarid Northeastern Brazil, suffers under irregularly recurring droughts that go along with water scarcity. Structural policies to control and reduce water scarcity, as water supply and demand management, should be seen as long-term planning, and thus have to

  9. Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

    2015-09-01

    Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Increasing potential risk of a global aquatic invader in Europe in contrast to other continents under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-03-30

    Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted

  11. Analysis of International Monetary Fund under conditions of globalization of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Ksendzuk

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization in the economy requires proper management of countries' financial resources as the regulation of international financial market is one of the most important tasks of the successful development of the world economy and individual national economies. The International Monetary Fund since the beginning of its creation was intended to regulate the financial situation in the post-war period in world space. In present conditions of information development of the world economic system the role and importance of international financial institutions are changing. Thus, the policies and activities of the IMF are increasingly criticized, that is substantiated and requires some restructuring and reforming areas of the Fund activity. During the research the basic aspects of IMF activities in 2015 have been analyzed and the suggestions for its further effective development have been presented. In particular, it is advisable to use the specific individual approach to the problems of particular economies and to view the sizes of quotas and their functional purposes that will allow to develop new funding mechanisms that are based on social and ecological needs of society. This, in turn, will reduce the impact of developed countries on the activities of the financial institution

  12. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S.; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

    2017-10-01

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere.

  13. Avoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Peter J; Sanchirico, James N; Broad, Kenneth; Beck, Michael W; Tyedmers, Peter; Morikawa, Megan; Okey, Thomas A; Crowder, Larry B; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kelso, Denny; Kleypas, Joanie A; Munch, Stephan B; Glynn, Polita; Matthews, Kathryn; Lubchenco, Jane

    2017-11-01

    Climate change and ocean acidification are altering marine ecosystems and, from a human perspective, creating both winners and losers. Human responses to these changes are complex, but may result in reduced government investments in regulation, resource management, monitoring and enforcement. Moreover, a lack of peoples' experience of climate change may drive some towards attributing the symptoms of climate change to more familiar causes such as management failure. Taken together, we anticipate that management could become weaker and less effective as climate change continues. Using diverse case studies, including the decline of coral reefs, coastal defences from flooding, shifting fish stocks and the emergence of new shipping opportunities in the Arctic, we argue that human interests are better served by increased investments in resource management. But greater government investment in management does not simply mean more of "business-as-usual." Management needs to become more flexible, better at anticipating and responding to surprise, and able to facilitate change where it is desirable. A range of technological, economic, communication and governance solutions exists to help transform management. While not all have been tested, judicious application of the most appropriate solutions should help humanity adapt to novel circumstances and seek opportunity where possible. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Elucidating the global elapid (Squamata) richness pattern under metabolic theory of ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braga, Rosana Talita; Oliveira de Grande, Thallita; de Souza Barreto, Bruno; Felizola Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre; Terribile, Levi Carina

    2014-04-01

    Environmental determinants of global patterns in species richness are still uncertain. The Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) proposes that species richness patterns can be explained by environmental temperature acting on the metabolism of ectothermic organisms. However, the generality of this theory has been questioned due to its low fit to the geographic variation in species richness of different taxonomic groups. Here, we investigated whether the MTE drives elapid richness, testing the non-stationarity of the relationship between the natural logarithm of species richness (ln S) and the inverse function of temperature (1/kT) using a geographically weighted regression (GWR). The relationship between ln S and 1/kT varied systematically over space and showed non-stationarity. Few tropical locations were consistent with MTE predictions, whereas other regions fitted differently. Although the slope of the GWR model ranged from low to high, the temperature did not predict species richness strongly on average and did not limit the upper values of richness. The response of richness to temperature in some areas might reflect a recent history of colonization and diversification of species across tropical and subtropical regions. In regions not affected by temperature, species richness should be structured by other biotic and abiotic interactions. This scenario reveals that the non-stationarity of the relationship would be linked to idiosyncrasies in the sample sites, which can drift the magnitude or change the relationship between species richness and temperature throughout space.

  15. Financial Stabilisation of Global Economy Countries under Conditions of the Debt Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vovchenko Natalia G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available European crisis hinders global restoration of economy, the growth of restoration slows down. All these require supranational solutions: creatio9n of regulation structures and new financial instruments in order to preserve stable world financial order. Methods of quantitative easing (QE, carried out by the American Federal Reserve System and Bank of England, aim at stimulation of private sector activity through reduction of loan cost, generation of positive effects of well-being and increase of investment income. Purchase of assets efficiently move dangerous financial assets from private sector to the balance of the central bank or special QE fund in exchange to risk free reserves of the central bank. Thus, both types of measures are performed by means of risks, accumulating on balances of central banks and indirectly on the balance of state administration. Exchange of information between relevant agencies, including debt administration office, state enterprises that administer assets and central bank, is important for efficient administration of all state assets and liabilities. Proper assessment of financial positions requires all-sided and transparent reporting of all state liabilities and assets. Besides, financial transparency facilitates consolidation.

  16. Reaching Non-Traditional and Under-Served Communities through Global Astronomy Month Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Global Astronomy Month (GAM), organized each year by Astronomers Without Borders (AWB), has become the world's largest annual celebration of astronomy. Launched as a follow-up to the unprecedented success of the 100 Hours of Astronomy Cornerstone Project of IYA2009, GAM quickly attracted not only traditional partners in astronomy and space science outreach, but also unusual partners from very different fields. GAM's third annual edition, GAM2012, included worldwide programs for the sight-impaired, astronomy in the arts, and other non-traditional programs. The special planetarium program, OPTICKS, combined elements such as Moonbounce (sending images to the Moon and back) and artistic elements in a unique presentation of the heavens. Programs were developed to present the heavens to the sight-impaired as well. The Cosmic Concert, in which a new musical piece is composed each year, combined with background images of celestial objects, and presented during GAM, has become an annual event. Several astronomy themed art video projects were presented online. AWB's Astropoetry Blog held a very successful contest during GAM2012 that attracted more than 70 entries from 17 countries. Students were engaged by participation in special GAM campaigns of the International Asteroid Search Campaign. AWB and GAM have both developed into platforms where innovative programs can develop, and interdisciplinary collaborations can flourish. As AWB's largest program, GAM brings the audience and resources that provide a boost for these new types of programs. Examples, lessons learned, new projects, and plans for the future of AWB and GAM will be presented.

  17. Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

  18. Conservational PDF Equations of Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Liu, Nan-Suey

    2010-01-01

    Recently we have revisited the traditional probability density function (PDF) equations for the velocity and species in turbulent incompressible flows. They are all unclosed due to the appearance of various conditional means which are modeled empirically. However, we have observed that it is possible to establish a closed velocity PDF equation and a closed joint velocity and species PDF equation through conditions derived from the integral form of the Navier-Stokes equations. Although, in theory, the resulted PDF equations are neither general nor unique, they nevertheless lead to the exact transport equations for the first moment as well as all higher order moments. We refer these PDF equations as the conservational PDF equations. This observation is worth further exploration for its validity and CFD application

  19. Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Thomas; Schuerch, Mark; Nicholls, Robert J.; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, A. T.; Reef, Ruth; McFadden, Loraine; Brown, Sally

    2016-04-01

    The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment Wetland Change Model (DIVA_WCM) comprises a dataset of contemporary global coastal wetland stocks (estimated at 756 × 103 km2 (in 2011)), mapped to a one-dimensional global database, and a model of the macro-scale controls on wetland response to sea-level rise. Three key drivers of wetland response to sea-level rise are considered: 1) rate of sea-level rise relative to tidal range; 2) lateral accommodation space; and 3) sediment supply. The model is tuned by expert knowledge, parameterised with quantitative data where possible, and validated against mapping associated with two large-scale mangrove and saltmarsh vulnerability studies. It is applied across 12,148 coastal segments (mean length 85 km) to the year 2100. The model provides better-informed macro-scale projections of likely patterns of future coastal wetland losses across a range of sea-level rise scenarios and varying assumptions about the construction of coastal dikes to prevent sea flooding (as dikes limit lateral accommodation space and cause coastal squeeze). With 50 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, the model predicts a loss of 46-59% of global coastal wetland stocks. A global coastal wetland loss of 78% is estimated under high sea-level rise (110 cm by 2100) accompanied by maximum dike construction. The primary driver for high vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise is coastal squeeze, a consequence of long-term coastal protection strategies. Under low sea-level rise (29 cm by 2100) losses do not exceed ca. 50% of the total stock, even for the same adverse dike construction assumptions. The model results confirm that the widespread paradigm that wetlands subject to a micro-tidal regime are likely to be more vulnerable to loss than macro-tidal environments. Countering these potential losses will require both climate mitigation (a global response) to minimise sea-level rise and maximisation of accommodation space and sediment supply (a regional

  20. Deconvolving temperature and substrate effects on soil heterotrophic respiration under multiple global change factors in mixed grass prairie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, C.; Nie, M.; Pendall, E. G.

    2013-12-01

    in temperature sensitivity of SOM decomposition. Overall, the temperature sensitivity of the fast pool was highly sensitive to global change factors and their interactions. On the other hand, there were no differences in temperature sensitivity of the slow pool in response to the global change factors. Similarly, the base rate of the fast pool was sensitive to the global change factors, while the slow pool base rate was not. However, the overall size of the slow pool was significantly affected by the global change factors. Vegetation removal reduced the slow pool by ~19% across all warming x CO2 treatments. This effect was greatest under elevated CO2 (both warmed and control), but non-significant under ambient CO2 and temperature. Importantly, effects mediated through the vegetation were the primary factor determining whether slow pool C was gained or lost under elevated CO2 and warming. Our data-model fusion approach allowed us to deconvolve the effect of reduced substrate availability from temperature sensitivity, and to demonstrate that global change may lead to strong positive C cycling feedbacks.

  1. Global Analysis of Response in the Piezomagnetoelastic Energy Harvester System under Harmonic and Poisson White Noise Excitations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Xiao-Le; Xu, Wei; Zhang, Ying; Wang, Liang

    2015-10-01

    The piezomagnetoelastic energy harvester system subjected to harmonic and Poisson white noise excitations is studied by using the generalized cell mapping method. The transient and stationary probability density functions (PDFs) of response based on the global viewpoint are obtained by the matrix analysis method. Monte Carlo simulation results verify the accuracy of this method. It can be observed that evolutionary direction of transient and stationary PDFs is in accordance with the unstable manifold for this system, and a stochastic P-bifurcation occurs as the intensity of Poisson white noise increases. This study presents an efficient numerical tool to solve the stochastic response of a three-dimensional dynamical system and provides a new idea to analyze the energy harvester system. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11302170, 11202160, 11302171, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. 3102014JCQ01079

  2. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

  3. Global dysrhythmia of cerebro-basal ganglia-cerebellar networks underlies motor tics following striatal disinhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCairn, Kevin W; Iriki, Atsushi; Isoda, Masaki

    2013-01-09

    Motor tics, a cardinal symptom of Tourette syndrome (TS), are hypothesized to arise from abnormalities within cerebro-basal ganglia circuits. Yet noninvasive neuroimaging of TS has previously identified robust activation in the cerebellum. To date, electrophysiological properties of cerebellar activation and its role in basal ganglia-mediated tic expression remain unknown. We performed multisite, multielectrode recordings of single-unit activity and local field potentials from the cerebellum, basal ganglia, and primary motor cortex using a pharmacologic monkey model of motor tics/TS. Following microinjections of bicuculline into the sensorimotor putamen, periodic tics occurred predominantly in the orofacial region, and a sizable number of cerebellar neurons showed phasic changes in activity associated with tic episodes. Specifically, 64% of the recorded cerebellar cortex neurons exhibited increases in activity, and 85% of the dentate nucleus neurons displayed excitatory, inhibitory, or multiphasic responses. Critically, abnormal discharges of cerebellar cortex neurons and excitatory-type dentate neurons mostly preceded behavioral tic onset, indicating their central origins. Latencies of pathological activity in the cerebellum and primary motor cortex substantially overlapped, suggesting that aberrant signals may be traveling along divergent pathways to these structures from the basal ganglia. Furthermore, the occurrence of tic movement was most closely associated with local field potential spikes in the cerebellum and primary motor cortex, implying that these structures may function as a gate to release overt tic movements. These findings indicate that tic-generating networks in basal ganglia mediated tic disorders extend beyond classical cerebro-basal ganglia circuits, leading to global network dysrhythmia including cerebellar circuits.

  4. Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Alba-Tercedor

    Full Text Available Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96% inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.

  5. Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

  6. Signaling of pigment-dispersing factor (PDF in the Madeira cockroach Rhyparobia maderae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongying Wei

    Full Text Available The insect neuropeptide pigment-dispersing factor (PDF is a functional ortholog of vasoactive intestinal polypeptide, the coupling factor of the mammalian circadian pacemaker. Despite of PDF's importance for synchronized circadian locomotor activity rhythms its signaling is not well understood. We studied PDF signaling in primary cell cultures of the accessory medulla, the circadian pacemaker of the Madeira cockroach. In Ca²⁺ imaging studies four types of PDF-responses were distinguished. In regularly bursting type 1 pacemakers PDF application resulted in dose-dependent long-lasting increases in Ca²⁺ baseline concentration and frequency of oscillating Ca²⁺ transients. Adenylyl cyclase antagonists prevented PDF-responses in type 1 cells, indicating that PDF signaled via elevation of intracellular cAMP levels. In contrast, in type 2 pacemakers PDF transiently raised intracellular Ca²⁺ levels even after blocking adenylyl cyclase activity. In patch clamp experiments the previously characterized types 1-4 could not be identified. Instead, PDF-responses were categorized according to ion channels affected. Application of PDF inhibited outward potassium or inward sodium currents, sometimes in the same neuron. In a comparison of Ca²⁺ imaging and patch clamp experiments we hypothesized that in type 1 cells PDF-dependent rises in cAMP concentrations block primarily outward K⁺ currents. Possibly, this PDF-dependent depolarization underlies PDF-dependent phase advances of pacemakers. Finally, we propose that PDF-dependent concomitant modulation of K⁺ and Na⁺ channels in coupled pacemakers causes ultradian membrane potential oscillations as prerequisite to efficient synchronization via resonance.

  7. Global sensitivity analysis for an integrated model for simulation of nitrogen dynamics under the irrigation with treated wastewater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Huaiwei; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong; Wang, Xiugui

    2015-11-01

    As the amount of water resources that can be utilized for agricultural production is limited, the reuse of treated wastewater (TWW) for irrigation is a practical solution to alleviate the water crisis in China. The process-based models, which estimate nitrogen dynamics under irrigation, are widely used to investigate the best irrigation and fertilization management practices in developed and developing countries. However, for modeling such a complex system for wastewater reuse, it is critical to conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine numerous input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output for the development of process-based model. In this study, application of a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for nitrogen dynamics was reported. The objective was to compare different global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the key parameters for different model predictions of nitrogen and crop growth modules. The analysis was performed as two steps. Firstly, Morris screening method, which is one of the most commonly used screening method, was carried out to select the top affected parameters; then, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis method (extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST) was used to investigate more thoroughly the effects of selected parameters on model predictions. The results of GSA showed that strong parameter interactions exist in crop nitrogen uptake, nitrogen denitrification, crop yield, and evapotranspiration modules. Among all parameters, one of the soil physical-related parameters named as the van Genuchten air entry parameter showed the largest sensitivity effects on major model predictions. These results verified that more effort should be focused on quantifying soil parameters for more accurate model predictions in nitrogen- and crop-related predictions, and stress the need to better calibrate the model in a global sense. This study demonstrates the advantages of the GSA on a

  8. China's role as a global health donor in Africa: what can we learn from studying under reported resource flows?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grépin, Karen A; Fan, Victoria Y; Shen, Gordon C; Chen, Lucy

    2014-12-30

    There is a growing recognition of China's role as a global health donor, in particular in Africa, but there have been few systematic studies of the level, destination, trends, or composition of these development finance flows or a comparison of China's engagement as a donor with that of more traditional global health donors. Using newly released data from AidData on China's development finance activities in Africa, developed to track under reported resource flows, we identified 255 health, population, water, and sanitation (HPWS) projects from 2000-2012, which we descriptively analyze by activity sector, recipient country, project type, and planned activity. We compare China's activities to projects from traditional donors using data from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Creditor Reporting System. Since 2000, China increased the number of HPWS projects it supported in Africa and health has increased as a development priority for China. China's contributions are large, ranking it among the top 10 bilateral global health donors to Africa. Over 50% of the HPWS projects target infrastructure, 40% target human resource development, and the provision of equipment and drugs is also common. Malaria is an important disease priority but HIV is not. We find little evidence that China targets health aid preferentially to natural resource rich countries. China is an important global health donor to Africa but contrasts with traditional DAC donors through China's focus on health system inputs and on malaria. Although better data are needed, particularly through more transparent aid data reporting across ministries and agencies, China's approach to South-South cooperation represents an important and distinct source of financial assistance for health in Africa.

  9. The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M

    2012-01-01

    A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

  10. The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii under global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Conlisk

    Full Text Available A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak. Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

  11. PDF Modeling of Turbulent Combustion

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pope, Stephen B

    2006-01-01

    .... The PDF approach to turbulent combustion has the advantages of fully representing the turbulent fluctuations of species and temperature, and of allowing realistic combustion chemistry to be implemented...

  12. Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gaucherel

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified.

    We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN, previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE – MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production.

    Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively at the end of the 21st century.

    While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

  13. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  14. Management strategies for coral reefs and people under global environmental change: 25 years of scientific research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, Adrien; Pendleton, Linwood H

    2018-03-01

    Coral reef ecosystems and the people who depend on them are increasingly exposed to the adverse effects of global environmental change (GEC), including increases in sea-surface temperature and ocean acidification. Managers and decision-makers need a better understanding of the options available for action in the face of these changes. We refine a typology of actions developed by Gattuso et al. (2015) that could serve in prioritizing strategies to deal with the impacts of GEC on reefs and people. Using the typology we refined, we investigate the scientific effort devoted to four types of management strategies: mitigate, protect, repair, adapt that we tie to the components of the chain of impact they affect: ecological vulnerability or social vulnerability. A systematic literature review is used to investigate quantitatively how scientific effort over the past 25 years is responding to the challenge posed by GEC on coral reefs and to identify gaps in research. A growing literature has focused on these impacts and on management strategies to sustain coral reef social-ecological systems. We identify 767 peer reviewed articles published between 1990 and 2016 that address coral reef management in the context of GEC. The rate of publication of such studies has increased over the years, following the general trend in climate research. The literature focuses on protect strategies the most, followed by mitigate and adapt strategies, and finally repair strategies. Developed countries, particularly Australia and the United States, are over-represented as authors and locations of case studies across all types of management strategies. Authors affiliated in developed countries play a major role in investigating case studies across the globe. The majority of articles focus on only one of the four categories of actions. A gap analysis reveals three directions for future research: (1) more research is needed in South-East Asia and other developing countries where the impacts of

  15. Cattle and Nematodes Under Global Change: Transmission Models as an Ally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschave, Sien H; Charlier, Johannes; Rose, Hannah; Claerebout, Edwin; Morgan, Eric R

    2016-09-01

    Nematode infections are an important economic constraint to cattle farming. Future risk levels and transmission dynamics will be affected by changes in climate and farm management. The prospect of altered parasite epidemiology in combination with anthelmintic resistance requires the adaptation of current control approaches. Mathematical models that simulate disease dynamics under changing climate and farm management can help to guide the optimization of helminth control strategies. Recent efforts have increasingly employed such models to assess the impact of predicted climate scenarios on future infection pressure for gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) in cattle, and to evaluate possible adaptive control measures. This review aims to consolidate progress in this field to facilitate further modeling and application. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

    2015-01-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

  17. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

    2015-10-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for

  18. Transformation of India's transport sector under Global Warming of 2oC and 1.5oC Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal; Shukla, P.R.

    2017-01-01

    The Paris agreement stresses on concerted efforts to limit global temperature increase to 2°C and make efforts towards achieving 1.5°C temperature stabilization. Countries announced actions under the Nationally Determined Contributions outlining domestic mitigation actions to achieve the global...

  19. Multi-century Dynamics of an Ecotonal Mixed Old-growth Forest Under Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado Liñán, I.; Cañellas, I.; Valbuena-Carabaña, M.; Gil, L.; Gea-Izquierdo, G.

    2016-12-01

    Old-growth forests, particularly those located at the interface between different bioregions, are invaluable sources of long-term vegetation dynamics and historical stand response to perturbations. Although old-growth forest are scarce, the information gathered studying them may assist forest ecosystem restoration and management under forthcoming climate and land use changes. We analysed how complementary dynamics of a mixed old-growth forest composed by temperate (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea) and submediterranean (Quercus pyrenaica) tree species were driven in response to short and long-term natural and anthropogenic disturbances during last two centuries. The old-growth forest is located at the interface between Mediterranean and temperate bioregions so the temperate species are growing at the dry and warm edges of their natural distribution area, whereas the submediterranean species Q. pyrenaica is at the core of the distribution range. Our results reflect historical shifts in forest dominance (as reflected by growth) induced by changes in climate and forest management between temperate and sub-Mediterranean species. This was particularly noticeable for F. sylvatica and Q. pyrenaica, the least and most drought-tolerant species, respectively. A reduction in growth of F. sylvatica unprecedented in the context of the last two hundred years was observed during the last decades concurrent with forest densification and marked changes in climate. Old-growth forests, particularly those located at the interface between different bioregions, are invaluable sources of long-term vegetation dynamics and historical stand response to perturbations. Although old-growth forest are scarce, the information gathered studying them may assist forest ecosystem restoration and management under forthcoming climate and land use changes. We analysed how complementary dynamics of a mixed old-growth forest composed by temperate (Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea) and submediterranean

  20. Global transcriptome profiling of wild soybean (Glycine soja) roots under NaHCO3 treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Ying; Li, Yong; Zhu, Yan-Ming; Bai, Xi; Lv, De-Kang; Guo, Dianjing; Ji, Wei; Cai, Hua

    2010-07-26

    Plant roots are the primary site of perception and injury for saline-alkaline stress. The current knowledge of saline-alkaline stress transcriptome is mostly focused on saline (NaCl) stress and only limited information on alkaline (NaHCO3) stress is available. Using Affymetrix Soybean GeneChip, we conducted transcriptional profiling on Glycine soja roots subjected to 50 mmol/L NaHCO3 treatment. In a total of 7088 probe sets, 3307 were up-regulated and 5720 were down-regulated at various time points. The number of significantly stress regulated genes increased dramatically after 3 h stress treatment and peaked at 6 h. GO enrichment test revealed that most of the differentially expressed genes were involved in signal transduction, energy, transcription, secondary metabolism, transporter, disease and defence response. We also detected 11 microRNAs regulated by NaHCO3 stress. This is the first comprehensive wild soybean root transcriptome analysis under alkaline stress. These analyses have identified an inventory of genes with altered expression regulated by alkaline stress. The data extend the current understanding of wild soybean alkali stress response by providing a set of robustly selected, differentially expressed genes for further investigation.

  1. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity

  2. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  3. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  4. Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the σ54 regulon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva Neto, José F; Koide, Tie; Gomes, Suely L; Marques, Marilis V

    2010-08-28

    Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours) of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a σ54-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the σ54 regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential σ54-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these σ54-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase), was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a σ54-dependent promoter. Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the σ54 regulon.

  5. Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the σ54 regulon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    da Silva Neto José F

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. Results In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a σ54-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the σ54 regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential σ54-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these σ54-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase, was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a σ54-dependent promoter. Conclusions Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the σ54 regulon.

  6. Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

  7. Finite Element Analysis and Footprint Determination of a Bias Truck Tire under Vertical Static Load Using Global/Local Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.H.R. Ghoreishy

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Afinite element model of a bias truck tire under static vertical load using a global/local technique is designed in two parts. In the first part a previously created model for radial tires is developed to take the constructional variables of bias tires into account. It is shown that the technique can successfully be used for bias tires. The main challenge here is the selection of the initial layout of the tire, which due to the use of nylon fibers in bias tires undergo considerable variation in shapes on being released from mold. Therefore, the selection of the tire lay out in the mold as the initial starting point for finite element calculations leads to significant errors in the final results. In the second part, a highly refined mesh has been created from contacting region of the tire tread pattern as a local model. This model is analyzed using the results of the first (global model as the boundary condition. It is also shown that the developed method is capable of precisely predicting the geometry of the footprint area without any extra computational cost and efforts needed in finite element calculations of full tire models.

  8. Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

    2010-09-01

    After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

  9. Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

    2016-11-01

    A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body

  10. Collective Action under Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheuer, Steen

    Collective action in the form of industrial conflict has declined dramatically since the high tide in the 1970s in Europe. This article argues that this decline is the result of significant changes in both economic and institutional factors, influencing the calculations of employees and of their ...

  11. Application of the local-to-global approach to the study of infilled frame structures under seismic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Combescure, D.

    2000-01-01

    The seismic performance of civil engineering structures may be estimated by using two levels of modelling. At the local level, each constituent has its own constitutive law and geometric finite element support. The main phenomena such as the cracking and the crushing of concrete and masonry could be reproduced by using the continuous damage or plasticity theories. However the cost of the computations does not allow extensive or dynamic studies and thus the global level - where the constitutive laws based on empirical rules reproduce the behaviour of the structural elements - represents the unique strategy for the analysis of complete civil engineering structures under seismic loading. The present paper aims at presenting the application of these two modelling levels in order to assess the seismic performance of masonry infilled R/C frame structures. The one-bay masonry infilled frames tested at Lisbon under cyclic loading and the four-storey building tested at ELSA have been used for the validation of the modelling approach. (orig.)

  12. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  13. Global identification of stochastic dynamical systems under different pseudo-static operating conditions: The functionally pooled ARMAX case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

    2017-01-01

    The identification of a single global model for a stochastic dynamical system operating under various conditions is considered. Each operating condition is assumed to have a pseudo-static effect on the dynamics and be characterized by a single measurable scheduling variable. Identification is accomplished within a recently introduced Functionally Pooled (FP) framework, which offers a number of advantages over Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) identification techniques. The focus of the work is on the extension of the framework to include the important FP-ARMAX model case. Compared to their simpler FP-ARX counterparts, FP-ARMAX models are much more general and offer improved flexibility in describing various types of stochastic noise, but at the same time lead to a more complicated, non-quadratic, estimation problem. Prediction Error (PE), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and multi-stage estimation methods are postulated, and the PE estimator optimality, in terms of consistency and asymptotic efficiency, is analytically established. The postulated estimators are numerically assessed via Monte Carlo experiments, while the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority over its FP-ARX counterpart are demonstrated via an application case study pertaining to simulated railway vehicle suspension dynamics under various mass loading conditions.

  14. Global change and biogeochemical cycles: The south Asia region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mitra, A.P.; DileepKumar, M.; Kumar, K.R.; Abrol, Y.P.; Kalra, N.; Velayutham, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    stream_size 33 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt stream_source_info Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  15. Carbon inventories and atmospheric temperatures: A global and regional perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    stream_size 3 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Natl_Conf_Global_Temp_Rise_2007_133.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  16. The circadian neuropeptide PDF signals preferentially through a specific adenylate cyclase isoform AC3 in M pacemakers of Drosophila.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura B Duvall

    Full Text Available The neuropeptide Pigment Dispersing Factor (PDF is essential for normal circadian function in Drosophila. It synchronizes the phases of M pacemakers, while in E pacemakers it decelerates their cycling and supports their amplitude. The PDF receptor (PDF-R is present in both M and subsets of E cells. Activation of PDF-R stimulates cAMP increases in vitro and in M cells in vivo. The present study asks: What is the identity of downstream signaling components that are associated with PDF receptor in specific circadian pacemaker neurons? Using live imaging of intact fly brains and transgenic RNAi, we show that adenylate cyclase AC3 underlies PDF signaling in M cells. Genetic disruptions of AC3 specifically disrupt PDF responses: they do not affect other Gs-coupled GPCR signaling in M cells, they can be rescued, and they do not represent developmental alterations. Knockdown of the Drosophila AKAP-like scaffolding protein Nervy also reduces PDF responses. Flies with AC3 alterations show behavioral syndromes consistent with known roles of M pacemakers as mediated by PDF. Surprisingly, disruption of AC3 does not alter PDF responses in E cells--the PDF-R(+ LNd. Within M pacemakers, PDF-R couples preferentially to a single AC, but PDF-R association with a different AC(s is needed to explain PDF signaling in the E pacemakers. Thus critical pathways of circadian synchronization are mediated by highly specific second messenger components. These findings support a hypothesis that PDF signaling components within target cells are sequestered into "circadian signalosomes," whose compositions differ between E and M pacemaker cell types.

  17. Globalization and innovation in emerging markets

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gorodnichenko, Y.; Švejnar, Jan; Terrell, K.

    -, č. 14481 (2008), s. 1-48 ISSN N Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : globalization * innovation * emerging markets Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.nber.org/papers/w14481.pdf

  18. Climate change alters low flows in Europe under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, Andreas; Kumar, Rohini; Thober, Stephan; Rakovec, Oldrich; Wanders, Niko; Zink, Matthias; Wood, Eric F.; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis

    2018-02-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e. 1.5, 2, and 3 K with respect to the pre-industrial period) in rivers with a contributing area of more than 1000 km2. The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High-resolution model results are available at a spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at a daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90 % of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combination and warming scenario. The results show that the low-flow change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean region, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12 % under 1.5 K, compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, to -35 % under global warming of 3 K, largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22 (1.5 K) to +45 % (3 K) in the Alpine region due to changes in snow accumulation. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. However, it is not possible to distinguish climate-induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of (1) the large inter-annual variability which prevents distinguishing statistical estimates of period-averaged changes for a given GCM/HM combination, and (2

  19. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  20. Using Citizen Science Data to Model the Distributions of Common Songbirds of Turkey Under Different Global Climatic Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolafya, Moris; Onmuş, Ortaç; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Bilgin, Raşit

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of Turkey’s songbirds in the 21st century by modelling future distributions of 20 resident and nine migratory species under two global climate change scenarios. We combined verified data from an ornithological citizen science initiative (www.kusbank.org) with maximum entropy modeling and eight bioclimatic variables to estimate species distributions and projections for future time periods. Model predictions for resident and migratory species showed high variability, with some species projected to lose and others projected to gain suitable habitat. Our study helps improve the understanding of the current and potential future distributions of Turkey’s songbirds and their responses to climate change, highlights effective strategies to maximize avian conservation efforts in the study region, and provides a model for using citizen science data for biodiversity research in a large developing country with few professional field biologists. Our results demonstrate that climate change will not affect every species equally in Turkey. Expected range reductions in some breeding species will increase the risk of local extinction, whereas others are likely to expand their ranges. PMID:23844151

  1. The Projected Changes in the relationship between Precipitation, African Easterly Jet and African Easterly Waves under global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kebe, I.

    2016-12-01

    The latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) driven by three CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used at 25 km of grid spacing over West Africa. In particular, we examine how convection, AEJ, AEWs, precipitation and their interaction are changing in the future (2080-2099, under two GHG scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the referenced period 1985-2004). The results show that among the model simulations, some project wetter climate along the Gulf of Guinea and drier conditions along the entire Sahel while other project a drier condition along the both region. Mostly, the RegCM4 simulations simulate contrasting changes in vertical motion over the complex terrains (negative) during the present day while the higher values are found over the mountaintops and the positive value prevail during the future period. Given observed change in the far future climate, the result show that the characteristics of AEJ and AEWs are changing in the future. Such changes in the location and intensity of AEJ and AEWs and the magnitude of both AEJ and AEW winds carry implications in the relationship between AEJ and precipitation, AEWs and precipitation over the West African region, particularly in the Sahel region. We conclude that a good performing GCM in terms of monsoon dynamical features (in this case MPI-ESM-MR) is needed to drive RCMs in order to achieve a better representation of the West Africa summer monsoon precipitation.

  2. Interspecific Hybridization in Pilot Whales and Asymmetric Genetic Introgression in Northern Globicephala melas under the Scenario of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, Laura; Oremus, Marc; Silva, Mónica A; Planes, Serge; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

    2016-01-01

    Pilot whales are two cetacean species (Globicephala melas and G. macrorhynchus) whose distributions are correlated with water temperature and partially overlap in some areas like the North Atlantic Ocean. In the context of global warming, distribution range shifts are expected to occur in species affected by temperature. Consequently, a northward displacement of the tropical pilot whale G. macrorynchus is expected, eventually leading to increased secondary contact areas and opportunities for interspecific hybridization. Here, we describe genetic evidences of recurrent hybridization between pilot whales in northeast Atlantic Ocean. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences and microsatellite loci, asymmetric introgression of G. macrorhynchus genes into G. melas was observed. For the latter species, a significant correlation was found between historical population growth rate estimates and paleotemperature oscillations. Introgressive hybridization, current temperature increases and lower genetic variation in G. melas suggest that this species could be at risk in its northern range. Under increasing environmental and human-mediated stressors in the North Atlantic Ocean, it seems recommendable to develop a conservation program for G. melas.

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    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    degraded. Biologists estimate that the current global extinction rate of species is 100-1000 times what it would be without human-induced change (Miller,. 2002). The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (i.e. of globally threatened species) includes 148 animals and 146 plants that are found in Nigeria. Of these, 26 animals ...

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    De Don

    Abstract. The world is a global village and globalization is a process of interaction and integration among the people, companies, and government of different nations, a process driven by international trade and investment and aided by information technology. This process has effects on the environment, on culture, ...

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    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Data from the Chancellor College Meteorological Station shows that average annual air temperatures from 1980-1993 have risen by around 1°C. The question must be asked "has global warming come to Zomba? " As there are no records of annual CO2 levels for. Zomba the global warming theory cannot be disapproved.

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    HENRY

    Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women worldwide and the most common among African women. The WHO, recent global cancer statistics indicate a rising global incidence of breast cancer in populations of the developing countries that previously enjoyed a low incidence of the ...

  7. Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry

  8. Public services in the international investment arbitration: an approach under the perspective of the global administrative law

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández, José

    2016-01-01

    The public service has been, traditionally, a domestic concept of the Administrative Law. However, as a consequence of globalization, the public service regulation by the Administration is also subject to the Global Administrative Law, specifically in the context of the international investment arbitration.

  9. Ultradian rhythm unmasked in the Pdf clock mutant of Drosophila

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... kept under constant dark conditions. In particular, the Pigment-dispersing factor mutant (Pdf01) demonstrated a precise and robust ultradian rhythmicity, which was not temperature compensated. Our results suggest that Drosophila has an endogenous ultradian oscillator that is masked by circadian rhythmic behaviours.

  10. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the

  11. Globalization and Equitable Use of Natural Resources in the Contemporary World: A Diagnosis Under the Bias of The Principle of Intergenerational Equity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Marcelo Mendes

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Article  conduct  an  assessment  of  globalization  has  unleashed  the  commodification/depredation of natural resources in local/global scale to meet the interests of the market and the performance of the principle of intergenerational equity to try to curb this phenomenon. The research makes use of the deductive method, and uses dialectical contributions in order to implement a more accurate analysis of the phenomenon. At first, time will address under as globalization changes in consumption patterns of individuals in local/global level. Finally, it will take shape-the role of the principle of intergenerational equity by the legal system to try to curb ecological degradation.

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    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Natal, South Africa. Abstract. This paper argues that we have to radically rethink the purposes of education in a world that is becoming increasingly unequal as global warming intensifies. It argues that our current generation is taking away.

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    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mr Olusoji

    Prompt and holistic multidisciplinary approach is required to address this social problem. Keywords: Key words :Adolescent, prostitution, reproductive health, demographic characteristics, risk factors, Nigeria. INTRODUCTION issue. A report from Global March Against Child. Labour revealed the alarming exploitation of.

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    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    globalization campaigners continue to challenge the viability of institutionalized agenda such as the M1365 and PRSPS (Mbilinyi, 2004; Antrohus. 2004; Baurnan,. 1998; Choussoudovsky 1997). Cfonmiunity/rural development workers and rights.

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    Kapkaos

    learning. Global connectivity ... integration of ICT in education in order to ensure the provision of quality education and training to all learners. ... lectures. Content Management System, in particular, allows the teacher to present content to students.

  16. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  17. Big moving day for biodiversity? A macroecological assessment of the scope for assisted colonization as a conservation strategy under global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenning, J.-C.; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia

    2009-01-01

    to corresponding losses locally. Our results suggest that there is substantial room for additional plant species across most areas of Europe, indicating that there is considerable scope for implementing assisted colonization as a proactive conservation strategy under global warming without necessarily implicating...

  18. The tunneling radiation of a black hole with a f( R) global monopole under generalized uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lingshen; Cheng, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    The Parikh-Kraus-Wilczeck tunneling radiation of black hole involving a f( R) global monopole is considered based on the generalized uncertainty principle. The influences from global monopole, f( R) gravity and the corrections to the uncertainty appear in the expression of black hole entropy difference. It is found that the global monopole and the revision of general relativity both hinder the black hole from emitting the photons. The two parts as corrections to the uncertainty make the entropy difference of this kind of black hole larger or smaller respectively.

  19. Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the 'clean development mechanism''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearnside, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include definition of the units of carbon (permanent sequestration versus carbon-ton-years, the latter being most appropriate for forest options), the means of crediting forest reserve establishment, adoption of discounting or other time-preference weighting for carbon, definition of the accounting method (avoided emissions versus stock maintenance), and mechanism to allow program contributions to be counted, rather than restricting consideration to free-standing projects. Silvicultural plantations offer opportunities for carbon benefits, but have high social impacts in the Brazilian context. Plantations also inherently compete with deforestation reduction options for funds. Forest management has been proposed as a global warming response option, but the assignment of any value to time makes this unattractive in terms of carbon benefits. However, reduced-impact logging can substantially reduce emissions over those from traditional logging practices. Slowing deforestation is the major opportunity offered by Brazil. Slowing deforestation will require understanding its causes and creating functional models capable of generating land-use change scenarios with and without different policy changes and other activities. Brazil already has a number of programs designed to slow deforestation, but the continued rapid loss of forest highlights the vast gulf that exists between the magnitude of the problem and the

  20. Biodiversity's big wet secret: the global distribution of marine biological records reveals chronic under-exploration of the deep pelagic ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Webb

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Understanding the distribution of marine biodiversity is a crucial first step towards the effective and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. Recent efforts to collate location records from marine surveys enable us to assemble a global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. They also effectively highlight gaps in our knowledge of particular marine regions. In particular, the deep pelagic ocean--the largest biome on Earth--is chronically under-represented in global databases of marine biodiversity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System to plot the position in the water column of ca 7 million records of marine species occurrences. Records from relatively shallow waters dominate this global picture of recorded marine biodiversity. In addition, standardising the number of records from regions of the ocean differing in depth reveals that regardless of ocean depth, most records come either from surface waters or the sea bed. Midwater biodiversity is drastically under-represented. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The deep pelagic ocean is the largest habitat by volume on Earth, yet it remains biodiversity's big wet secret, as it is hugely under-represented in global databases of marine biological records. Given both its value in the provision of a range of ecosystem services, and its vulnerability to threats including overfishing and climate change, there is a pressing need to increase our knowledge of Earth's largest ecosystem.