Nonclassicality in phase-number uncertainty relations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Matia-Hernando, Paloma; Luis, Alfredo [Departamento de Optica, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Universidad Complutense, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

2011-12-15

We show that there are nonclassical states with lesser joint fluctuations of phase and number than any classical state. This is rather paradoxical since one would expect classical coherent states to be always of minimum uncertainty. The same result is obtained when we replace phase by a phase-dependent field quadrature. Number and phase uncertainties are assessed using variance and Holevo relation.

Uncertainty relations for information entropy in wave mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bialynicki-Birula, I.; Pittsburgh Univ., Pa.; Mycielski, J.

1975-01-01

New uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics are derived. They express restrictions imposed by quantum theory on probability distributions of canonically conjugate variables in terms of corresponding information entropies. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation follows from those inequalities and so does the Gross-Nelson inequality. (orig.) [de

Uncertainty Relations and Possible Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gregg Jaeger

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The uncertainty principle can be understood as a condition of joint indeterminacy of classes of properties in quantum theory. The mathematical expressions most closely associated with this principle have been the uncertainty relations, various inequalities exemplified by the well known expression regarding position and momentum introduced by Heisenberg. Here, recent work involving a new sort of “logical” indeterminacy principle and associated relations introduced by Pitowsky, expressable directly in terms of probabilities of outcomes of measurements of sharp quantum observables, is reviewed and its quantum nature is discussed. These novel relations are derivable from Boolean “conditions of possible experience” of the quantum realm and have been considered both as fundamentally logical and as fundamentally geometrical. This work focuses on the relationship of indeterminacy to the propositions regarding the values of discrete, sharp observables of quantum systems. Here, reasons for favoring each of these two positions are considered. Finally, with an eye toward future research related to indeterminacy relations, further novel approaches grounded in category theory and intended to capture and reconceptualize the complementarity characteristics of quantum propositions are discussed in relation to the former.

Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jaeha, E-mail: jlee@post.kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Tsutsui, Izumi, E-mail: izumi.tsutsui@kek.jp [Department of Physics, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Theory Center, Institute of Particle and Nuclear Studies, High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), 1-1 Oho, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0801 (Japan)

2016-05-27

We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.

Uncertainty relations for approximation and estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jaeha; Tsutsui, Izumi

2016-01-01

We present a versatile inequality of uncertainty relations which are useful when one approximates an observable and/or estimates a physical parameter based on the measurement of another observable. It is shown that the optimal choice for proxy functions used for the approximation is given by Aharonov's weak value, which also determines the classical Fisher information in parameter estimation, turning our inequality into the genuine Cramér–Rao inequality. Since the standard form of the uncertainty relation arises as a special case of our inequality, and since the parameter estimation is available as well, our inequality can treat both the position–momentum and the time–energy relations in one framework albeit handled differently. - Highlights: • Several inequalities interpreted as uncertainty relations for approximation/estimation are derived from a single ‘versatile inequality’. • The ‘versatile inequality’ sets a limit on the approximation of an observable and/or the estimation of a parameter by another observable. • The ‘versatile inequality’ turns into an elaboration of the Robertson–Kennard (Schrödinger) inequality and the Cramér–Rao inequality. • Both the position–momentum and the time–energy relation are treated in one framework. • In every case, Aharonov's weak value arises as a key geometrical ingredient, deciding the optimal choice for the proxy functions.

Tightness Entropic Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Markovian-Davies Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jun; Liu, Liang; Han, Yan

2018-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the tightness of entropic uncertainty relation in the absence (presence) of the quantum memory which the memory particle being weakly coupled to a decohering Davies-type Markovian environment. The results show that the tightness of the quantum uncertainty relation can be controlled by the energy relaxation time F, the dephasing time G and the rescaled temperature p, the perfect tightness can be arrived by dephasing and energy relaxation satisfying F = 2G and p = 1/2. In addition, the tightness of the memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation and the entropic uncertainty relation can be influenced mainly by the purity. While in memory-assisted model, the purity and quantum correlation can also influence the tightness actively while the quantum entanglement can influence the tightness slightly.

Majorization uncertainty relations for mixed quantum states

Science.gov (United States)

Puchała, Zbigniew; Rudnicki, Łukasz; Krawiec, Aleksandra; Życzkowski, Karol

2018-04-01

Majorization uncertainty relations are generalized for an arbitrary mixed quantum state ρ of a finite size N. In particular, a lower bound for the sum of two entropies characterizing the probability distributions corresponding to measurements with respect to two arbitrary orthogonal bases is derived in terms of the spectrum of ρ and the entries of a unitary matrix U relating both bases. The results obtained can also be formulated for two measurements performed on a single subsystem of a bipartite system described by a pure state, and consequently expressed as an uncertainty relation for the sum of conditional entropies.

Energy and Uncertainty in General Relativity

Science.gov (United States)

Cooperstock, F. I.; Dupre, M. J.

2018-03-01

The issue of energy and its potential localizability in general relativity has challenged physicists for more than a century. Many non-invariant measures were proposed over the years but an invariant measure was never found. We discovered the invariant localized energy measure by expanding the domain of investigation from space to spacetime. We note from relativity that the finiteness of the velocity of propagation of interactions necessarily induces indefiniteness in measurements. This is because the elements of actual physical systems being measured as well as their detectors are characterized by entire four-velocity fields, which necessarily leads to information from a measured system being processed by the detector in a spread of time. General relativity adds additional indefiniteness because of the variation in proper time between elements. The uncertainty is encapsulated in a generalized uncertainty principle, in parallel with that of Heisenberg, which incorporates the localized contribution of gravity to energy. This naturally leads to a generalized uncertainty principle for momentum as well. These generalized forms and the gravitational contribution to localized energy would be expected to be of particular importance in the regimes of ultra-strong gravitational fields. We contrast our invariant spacetime energy measure with the standard 3-space energy measure which is familiar from special relativity, appreciating why general relativity demands a measure in spacetime as opposed to 3-space. We illustrate the misconceptions by certain authors of our approach.

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Ascertaining the uncertainty relations via quantum correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jun-Li; Du, Kun; Qiao, Cong-Feng

2014-01-01

We propose a new scheme to express the uncertainty principle in the form of inequality of the bipartite correlation functions for a given multipartite state, which provides an experimentally feasible and model-independent way to verify various uncertainty and measurement disturbance relations. By virtue of this scheme, the implementation of experimental measurement on the measurement disturbance relation to a variety of physical systems becomes practical. The inequality in turn, also imposes a constraint on the strength of correlation, i.e. it determines the maximum value of the correlation function for two-body system and a monogamy relation of the bipartite correlation functions for multipartite system. (paper)

Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Furrer, Fabian, E-mail: furrer@eve.phys.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Berta, Mario [Institute for Quantum Information and Matter, Caltech, Pasadena, California 91125 (United States); Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Tomamichel, Marco [School of Physics, The University of Sydney, Sydney 2006 (Australia); Centre for Quantum Technologies, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117543 (Singapore); Scholz, Volkher B. [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Christandl, Matthias [Institute for Theoretical Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Str. 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland); Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

2014-12-15

A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear operational interpretation in information theory and cryptography. Recently, entropic uncertainty relations have been used to show that the uncertainty can be reduced in the presence of entanglement and to prove security of quantum cryptographic tasks. However, much of this recent progress has been focused on observables with only a finite number of outcomes not including Heisenberg’s original setting of position and momentum observables. Here, we show entropic uncertainty relations for general observables with discrete but infinite or continuous spectrum that take into account the power of an entangled observer. As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states.

New class of uncertainty relations for partially coherent light

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bastiaans, M.J.

1984-01-01

A class of uncertainty relations for partially coherent light is derived; the uncertainty relations in this class express the fact that the product of the effective widths of the space-domain intensity and the spatial-frequency-domain intensity of the light has a lower bound and that this lower

Generalized uncertainty relations and characteristic invariants for the multimode states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sudarshan, E.C.G.; Chiu, C.B.; Bhamathi, G.

1995-01-01

The close relationship between the zero-point energy, the uncertainty relation, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group theoretic perspective of the problem enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. A simple and efficient method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented. Implication of canonical commutation relations for correlations are not exhausted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relation, not even by the Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty inequality, but there are relations in the multimode case that are the generalization of the Schroedinger-Robertson relation

Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redei, Miklos

1987-01-01

The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study.

Science.gov (United States)

MacEachren, A M; Roth, R E; O'Brien, J; Li, B; Swingley, D; Gahegan, M

2012-12-01

This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.

Framing of Uncertainty in Scientific Publications: Towards Recommendations for Decision Support

Science.gov (United States)

Guillaume, J. H. A.; Helgeson, C.; Elsawah, S.; Jakeman, A. J.; Kummu, M.

2016-12-01

Uncertainty is recognised as an essential issue in environmental decision making and decision support. As modellers, we notably use a variety of tools and techniques within an analysis, for example related to uncertainty quantification and model validation. We also address uncertainty by how we present results. For example, experienced modellers are careful to distinguish robust conclusions from those that need further work, and the precision of quantitative results is tailored to their accuracy. In doing so, the modeller frames how uncertainty should be interpreted by their audience. This is an area which extends beyond modelling to fields such as philosophy of science, semantics, discourse analysis, intercultural communication and rhetoric. We propose that framing of uncertainty deserves greater attention in the context of decision support, and that there are opportunities in this area for fundamental research, synthesis and knowledge transfer, development of teaching curricula, and significant advances in managing uncertainty in decision making. This presentation reports preliminary results of a study of framing practices. Specifically, we analyse the framing of uncertainty that is visible in the abstracts from a corpus of scientific articles. We do this through textual analysis of the content and structure of those abstracts. Each finding that appears in an abstract is classified according to the uncertainty framing approach used, using a classification scheme that was iteratively revised based on reflection and comparison amongst three coders. This analysis indicates how frequently the different framing approaches are used, and provides initial insights into relationships between frames, how the frames relate to interpretation of uncertainty, and how rhetorical devices are used by modellers to communicate uncertainty in their work. We propose initial hypotheses for how the resulting insights might influence decision support, and help advance decision making to

Pacifier Overuse and Conceptual Relations of Abstract and Emotional Concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Barca, Laura; Mazzuca, Claudia; Borghi, Anna M

2017-01-01

This study explores the impact of the extensive use of an oral device since infancy (pacifier) on the acquisition of concrete, abstract, and emotional concepts. While recent evidence showed a negative relation between pacifier use and children's emotional competence (Niedenthal et al., 2012), the possible interaction between use of pacifier and processing of emotional and abstract language has not been investigated. According to recent theories, while all concepts are grounded in sensorimotor experience, abstract concepts activate linguistic and social information more than concrete ones. Specifically, the Words As Social Tools (WAT) proposal predicts that the simulation of their meaning leads to an activation of the mouth (Borghi and Binkofski, 2014; Borghi and Zarcone, 2016). Since the pacifier affects facial mimicry forcing mouth muscles into a static position, we hypothesize its possible interference on acquisition/consolidation of abstract emotional and abstract not-emotional concepts, which are mainly conveyed during social and linguistic interactions, than of concrete concepts. Fifty-nine first grade children, with a history of different frequency of pacifier use, provided oral definitions of the meaning of abstract not-emotional, abstract emotional, and concrete words. Main effect of concept type emerged, with higher accuracy in defining concrete and abstract emotional concepts with respect to abstract not-emotional concepts, independently from pacifier use. Accuracy in definitions was not influenced by the use of pacifier, but correspondence and hierarchical clustering analyses suggest that the use of pacifier differently modulates the conceptual relations elicited by abstract emotional and abstract not-emotional. While the majority of the children produced a similar pattern of conceptual relations, analyses on the few (6) children who overused the pacifier (for more than 3 years) showed that they tend to distinguish less clearly between concrete and

Pacifier Overuse and Conceptual Relations of Abstract and Emotional Concepts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Barca

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study explores the impact of the extensive use of an oral device since infancy (pacifier on the acquisition of concrete, abstract, and emotional concepts. While recent evidence showed a negative relation between pacifier use and children's emotional competence (Niedenthal et al., 2012, the possible interaction between use of pacifier and processing of emotional and abstract language has not been investigated. According to recent theories, while all concepts are grounded in sensorimotor experience, abstract concepts activate linguistic and social information more than concrete ones. Specifically, the Words As Social Tools (WAT proposal predicts that the simulation of their meaning leads to an activation of the mouth (Borghi and Binkofski, 2014; Borghi and Zarcone, 2016. Since the pacifier affects facial mimicry forcing mouth muscles into a static position, we hypothesize its possible interference on acquisition/consolidation of abstract emotional and abstract not-emotional concepts, which are mainly conveyed during social and linguistic interactions, than of concrete concepts. Fifty-nine first grade children, with a history of different frequency of pacifier use, provided oral definitions of the meaning of abstract not-emotional, abstract emotional, and concrete words. Main effect of concept type emerged, with higher accuracy in defining concrete and abstract emotional concepts with respect to abstract not-emotional concepts, independently from pacifier use. Accuracy in definitions was not influenced by the use of pacifier, but correspondence and hierarchical clustering analyses suggest that the use of pacifier differently modulates the conceptual relations elicited by abstract emotional and abstract not-emotional. While the majority of the children produced a similar pattern of conceptual relations, analyses on the few (6 children who overused the pacifier (for more than 3 years showed that they tend to distinguish less clearly between

Entropy-power uncertainty relations: towards a tight inequality for all Gaussian pure states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hertz, Anaelle; Jabbour, Michael G; Cerf, Nicolas J

2017-01-01

We show that a proper expression of the uncertainty relation for a pair of canonically-conjugate continuous variables relies on entropy power, a standard notion in Shannon information theory for real-valued signals. The resulting entropy-power uncertainty relation is equivalent to the entropic formulation of the uncertainty relation due to Bialynicki-Birula and Mycielski, but can be further extended to rotated variables. Hence, based on a reasonable assumption, we give a partial proof of a tighter form of the entropy-power uncertainty relation taking correlations into account and provide extensive numerical evidence of its validity. Interestingly, it implies the generalized (rotation-invariant) Schrödinger–Robertson uncertainty relation exactly as the original entropy-power uncertainty relation implies Heisenberg relation. It is saturated for all Gaussian pure states, in contrast with hitherto known entropic formulations of the uncertainty principle. (paper)

Reconsiderations of long debated subjects: uncertainty relations and Planck's constant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumitru, S.

2005-01-01

Some earlier unresolved controversies about uncertainty relations and quantum measurements have persisted to this day. They originate in the shortcomings of the conventional interpretation of uncertainty relations. In this paper, we showed that those shortcomings exposed credible, unavoidable facts making it imperative that the conventional interpretation should be dropped. So, the primitive uncertainty relations appeared as being either figments or fluctuation formulae. Subsequently, we showed that for quantum microparticles the Planck constant h acted as an indicator of stochasticity, a role entirely similar to the one the Boltzmann constant k played in respect of the thermodynamic stochasticity of macroscopic systems. (author)

On entropic uncertainty relations in the presence of a minimal length

Science.gov (United States)

Rastegin, Alexey E.

2017-07-01

Entropic uncertainty relations for the position and momentum within the generalized uncertainty principle are examined. Studies of this principle are motivated by the existence of a minimal observable length. Then the position and momentum operators satisfy the modified commutation relation, for which more than one algebraic representation is known. One of them is described by auxiliary momentum so that the momentum and coordinate wave functions are connected by the Fourier transform. However, the probability density functions of the physically true and auxiliary momenta are different. As the corresponding entropies differ, known entropic uncertainty relations are changed. Using differential Shannon entropies, we give a state-dependent formulation with correction term. State-independent uncertainty relations are obtained in terms of the Rényi entropies and the Tsallis entropies with binning. Such relations allow one to take into account a finiteness of measurement resolution.

Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Han, D. (Editor); Janszky, J. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Man'ko, V. I. (Editor)

1998-01-01

The Fifth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, on 27-31 May 1997. This series was initiated in 1991 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland as the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations. The scientific purpose of this series was to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics including quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic. As the meeting attracted more participants and started covering more diversified subjects, the fourth meeting was called an international conference. The Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held in 1995 was hosted by Shanxi University in Taiyuan, China. The fifth meeting of this series, which was held at Balatonfured, Hungary, was also supported by the IUPAP. In 1999, the Sixth International Conference will be hosted by the University of Naples in 1999. The meeting will take place in Ravello near Naples.

SU-G-BRB-14: Uncertainty of Radiochromic Film Based Relative Dose Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Devic, S; Tomic, N; DeBlois, F; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, QC (Canada); Lewis, D [RCF Consulting, LLC, Monroe, CT (United States); Aldelaijan, S [King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Due to inherently non-linear dose response, measurement of relative dose distribution with radiochromic film requires measurement of absolute dose using a calibration curve following previously established reference dosimetry protocol. On the other hand, a functional form that converts the inherently non-linear dose response curve of the radiochromic film dosimetry system into linear one has been proposed recently [Devic et al, Med. Phys. 39 4850–4857 (2012)]. However, there is a question what would be the uncertainty of such measured relative dose. Methods: If the relative dose distribution is determined going through the reference dosimetry system (conversion of the response by using calibration curve into absolute dose) the total uncertainty of such determined relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature total uncertainties of doses measured at a given and at the reference point. On the other hand, if the relative dose is determined using linearization method, the new response variable is calculated as ζ=a(netOD)n/ln(netOD). In this case, the total uncertainty in relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature uncertainties for a new response function (σζ) for a given and the reference point. Results: Except at very low doses, where the measurement uncertainty dominates, the total relative dose uncertainty is less than 1% for the linear response method as compared to almost 2% uncertainty level for the reference dosimetry method. The result is not surprising having in mind that the total uncertainty of the reference dose method is dominated by the fitting uncertainty, which is mitigated in the case of linearization method. Conclusion: Linearization of the radiochromic film dose response provides a convenient and a more precise method for relative dose measurements as it does not require reference dosimetry and creation of calibration curve. However, the linearity of the newly introduced function must be verified. Dave Lewis

Universal quantum uncertainty relations between nonergodicity and loss of information

Science.gov (United States)

Awasthi, Natasha; Bhattacharya, Samyadeb; SenDe, Aditi; Sen, Ujjwal

2018-03-01

We establish uncertainty relations between information loss in general open quantum systems and the amount of nonergodicity of the corresponding dynamics. The relations hold for arbitrary quantum systems interacting with an arbitrary quantum environment. The elements of the uncertainty relations are quantified via distance measures on the space of quantum density matrices. The relations hold for arbitrary distance measures satisfying a set of intuitively satisfactory axioms. The relations show that as the nonergodicity of the dynamics increases, the lower bound on information loss decreases, which validates the belief that nonergodicity plays an important role in preserving information of quantum states undergoing lossy evolution. We also consider a model of a central qubit interacting with a fermionic thermal bath and derive its reduced dynamics to subsequently investigate the information loss and nonergodicity in such dynamics. We comment on the "minimal" situations that saturate the uncertainty relations.

Optimal entropic uncertainty relation for successive measurements ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

measurements in quantum information theory. M D SRINIVAS ... derived by Robertson in 1929 [2] from the first principles of quantum theory, does not ... systems and may hence be referred to as 'uncertainty relations for distinct measurements'.

Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations

Science.gov (United States)

Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.

Uncertainty relations, zero point energy and the linear canonical group

Science.gov (United States)

Sudarshan, E. C. G.

1993-01-01

The close relationship between the zero point energy, the uncertainty relations, coherent states, squeezed states, and correlated states for one mode is investigated. This group-theoretic perspective enables the parametrization and identification of their multimode generalization. In particular the generalized Schroedinger-Robertson uncertainty relations are analyzed. An elementary method of determining the canonical structure of the generalized correlated states is presented.

Uncertainties related to the fault tree reliability data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostol, Minodora; Nitoi, Mirela; Farcasiu, M.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty analyses related to the fault trees evaluate the system variability which appears from the uncertainties of the basic events probabilities. Having a logical model which describes a system, to obtain outcomes means to evaluate it, using estimations for each basic event of the model. If the model has basic events that incorporate uncertainties, then the results of the model should incorporate the uncertainties of the events. Uncertainties estimation in the final result of the fault tree means first the uncertainties evaluation for the basic event probabilities and then combination of these uncertainties, to calculate the top event uncertainty. To calculate the propagating uncertainty, a knowledge of the probability density function as well as the range of possible values of the basic event probabilities is required. The following data are defined, using suitable probability density function: the components failure rates; the human error probabilities; the initiating event frequencies. It was supposed that the possible value distribution of the basic event probabilities is given by the lognormal probability density function. To know the range of possible value of the basic event probabilities, the error factor or the uncertainty factor is required. The aim of this paper is to estimate the error factor for the failure rates and for the human errors probabilities from the reliability data base used in Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. The top event chosen as an example is FEED3, from the Pressure and Inventory Control System. The quantitative evaluation of this top event was made by using EDFT code, developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti (INR). It was supposed that the error factors for the component failures are the same as for the failure rates. Uncertainty analysis was made with INCERT application, which uses the moment method and Monte Carlo method. The reliability data base used at INR Pitesti does not contain the error factors (ef

Uncertainty related to Environmental Data and Estimated Extreme Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burcharth, H. F.

The design loads on rubble mound breakwaters are almost entirely determined by the environmental conditions, i.e. sea state, water levels, sea bed characteristics, etc. It is the objective of sub-group B to identify the most important environmental parameters and evaluate the related uncertainties...... including those corresponding to extreme estimates typically used for design purposes. Basically a design condition is made up of a set of parameter values stemming from several environmental parameters. To be able to evaluate the uncertainty related to design states one must know the corresponding joint....... Consequently this report deals mainly with each parameter separately. Multi parameter problems are briefly discussed in section 9. It is important to notice that the quantified uncertainties reported in section 7.7 represent what might be regarded as typical figures to be used only when no more qualified...

Communication and Agreement Abstractions for Fault-Tolerant Asynchronous Distributed Systems

CERN Document Server

Raynal, Michel

2010-01-01

Understanding distributed computing is not an easy task. This is due to the many facets of uncertainty one has to cope with and master in order to produce correct distributed software. Considering the uncertainty created by asynchrony and process crash failures in the context of message-passing systems, the book focuses on the main abstractions that one has to understand and master in order to be able to produce software with guaranteed properties. These fundamental abstractions are communication abstractions that allow the processes to communicate consistently (namely the register abstraction

Position-momentum uncertainty relations in the presence of quantum memory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Furrer, Fabian; Berta, Mario; Tomamichel, Marco

2014-01-01

A prominent formulation of the uncertainty principle identifies the fundamental quantum feature that no particle may be prepared with certain outcomes for both position and momentum measurements. Often the statistical uncertainties are thereby measured in terms of entropies providing a clear oper....... As an illustration, we evaluate the uncertainty relations for position and momentum measurements, which is operationally significant in that it implies security of a quantum key distribution scheme based on homodyne detection of squeezed Gaussian states....

The role of general relativity in the uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Padmanabhan, T.

1986-01-01

The role played by general relativity in quantum mechanics (especially as regards the uncertainty principle) is investigated. It is confirmed that the validity of time-energy uncertainty does depend on gravitational time dilation. It is also shown that there exists an intrinsic lower bound to the accuracy with which acceleration due to gravity can be measured. The motion of equivalence principle in quantum mechanics is clarified. (author)

Uncertainty relations and semi-groups in B-algebras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papaloucas, L.C.

1980-07-01

Starting from a B-algebra which satisfies the conditions of a structure theorem, we obtain directly a Lie algebra for which the Lie ring satisfies automatically the Heisenberg uncertainty relations. (author)

Uncertainties of exposure-related quantities in mammographic x-ray unit quality control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Kent J.; Pattison, John E.; Bibbo, Giovanni

2006-01-01

Breast screening programs operate in many countries with mammographic x-ray units subject to stringent quality control tests. These tests include the evaluation of quantities based on exposure measurements, such as half value layer, automatic exposure control reproducibility, average glandular dose, and radiation output rate. There are numerous error sources that contribute to the uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, some of which are unique to the low energy x-ray spectrum produced by mammographic x-ray units. For each of these exposure-related quantities, the applicable error sources and their magnitudes vary, depending on the test equipment used to make the measurement, and whether or not relevant corrections have been applied. This study has identified and quantified a range of error sources that may be used to estimate the combined uncertainty of these exposure-related quantities, given the test equipment used and corrections applied. The uncertainty analysis uses methods described by the International Standards Organization's Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. Examples of how these error sources combine to give the uncertainty of the exposure-related quantities are presented. Using the best test equipment evaluated in this study, uncertainties of the four exposure-related quantities at the 95% confidence interval were found to be ±1.6% (half value layer), ±0.0008 (automatic exposure control reproducibility), ±2.3% (average glandular dose), and ±2.1% (radiation output rate). In some cases, using less precise test equipment or failing to apply corrections, resulted in uncertainties more than double in magnitude

Generalization of uncertainty relation for quantum and stochastic systems

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Koide, T.; Kodama, T.

2018-06-01

The generalized uncertainty relation applicable to quantum and stochastic systems is derived within the stochastic variational method. This relation not only reproduces the well-known inequality in quantum mechanics but also is applicable to the Gross-Pitaevskii equation and the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equation, showing that the finite minimum uncertainty between the position and the momentum is not an inherent property of quantum mechanics but a common feature of stochastic systems. We further discuss the possible implication of the present study in discussing the application of the hydrodynamic picture to microscopic systems, like relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Measurability of quantum fields and the energy-time uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensky, Mikhail B

2011-01-01

Quantum restrictions on the measurability of an electromagnetic field strength and their relevance to the energy-time uncertainty relation are considered. The minimum errors in measuring electromagnetic field strengths, as they were estimated by the author (1988) in the framework of the phenomenological method of restricted path integral (RPI), are compared with the analogous estimates found by Landau and Peierls (1931) and by Bohr and Rosenfeld (1933) with the help of certain measurement setups. RPI-based restrictions, including those of Landau and Peierls as a special case, hold for any measuring schemes meeting the strict definition of measurement. Their fundamental nature is confirmed by the fact that their associated field detectability condition has the form of the energy-time uncertainty relation. The weaker restrictions suggested by Bohr and Rosenfeld rely on an extended definition of measurement. The energy-time uncertainty relation, which is the condition for the electromagnetic field to be detectable, is applied to the analysis of how the near-field scanning microscope works. (methodological notes)

Intolerance of uncertainty, cognitive complaints, and cancer-related distress in prostate cancer survivors.

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Eisenberg, Stacy A; Kurita, Keiko; Taylor-Ford, Megan; Agus, David B; Gross, Mitchell E; Meyerowitz, Beth E

2015-02-01

Prostate cancer survivors have reported cognitive complaints following treatment, and these difficulties may be associated with survivors' ongoing cancer-related distress. Intolerance of uncertainty may exacerbate this hypothesized relationship by predisposing individuals to approach uncertain situations such as cancer survivorship in an inflexible and negative manner. We investigated whether greater cognitive complaints and higher intolerance of uncertainty would interact in their relation to more cancer-related distress symptoms. This cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study included 67 prostate cancer survivors who were 3 to 5 years post treatment. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses tested the extent to which intolerance of uncertainty, cognitive complaints, and their interaction were associated with cancer-related distress (measured with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised; IES-R) after adjusting for age, education, physical symptoms, and fear of cancer recurrence. Intolerance of uncertainty was positively associated with the IES-R avoidance and hyperarousal subscales. More cognitive complaints were associated with higher scores on the IES-R hyperarousal subscale. The interaction of intolerance of uncertainty and cognitive complaints was significantly associated with IES-R intrusion, such that greater cognitive complaints were associated with greater intrusive thoughts in survivors high in intolerance of uncertainty but not those low in it. Prostate cancer survivors who report cognitive difficulties or who find uncertainty uncomfortable and unacceptable may be at greater risk for cancer-related distress, even 3 to 5 years after completing treatment. It may be beneficial to address both cognitive complaints and intolerance of uncertainty in psychosocial interventions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Uncertainty relation on a world crystal and its applications to micro black holes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen; Scardigli, Fabio

2010-01-01

We formulate generalized uncertainty relations in a crystal-like universe - a 'world crystal' - whose lattice spacing is of the order of Planck length. In the particular case when energies lie near the border of the Brillouin zone, i.e., for Planckian energies, the uncertainty relation for position and momenta does not pose any lower bound on involved uncertainties. We apply our results to micro black holes physics, where we derive a new mass-temperature relation for Schwarzschild micro black holes. In contrast to standard results based on Heisenberg and stringy uncertainty relations, our mass-temperature formula predicts both a finite Hawking's temperature and a zero rest-mass remnant at the end of the micro black hole evaporation. We also briefly mention some connections of the world-crystal paradigm with 't Hooft's quantization and double special relativity.

The grey relational approach for evaluating measurement uncertainty with poor information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Zai; Wang, Yanqing; Zhou, Weihu; Wang, Zhongyu

2015-01-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is the master document for measurement uncertainty evaluation. However, the GUM may encounter problems and does not work well when the measurement data have poor information. In most cases, poor information means a small data sample and an unknown probability distribution. In these cases, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty has become a bottleneck in practical measurement. To solve this problem, a novel method called the grey relational approach (GRA), different from the statistical theory, is proposed in this paper. The GRA does not require a large sample size or probability distribution information of the measurement data. Mathematically, the GRA can be divided into three parts. Firstly, according to grey relational analysis, the grey relational coefficients between the ideal and the practical measurement output series are obtained. Secondly, the weighted coefficients and the measurement expectation function will be acquired based on the grey relational coefficients. Finally, the measurement uncertainty is evaluated based on grey modeling. In order to validate the performance of this method, simulation experiments were performed and the evaluation results show that the GRA can keep the average error around 5%. Besides, the GRA was also compared with the grey method, the Bessel method, and the Monte Carlo method by a real stress measurement. Both the simulation experiments and real measurement show that the GRA is appropriate and effective to evaluate the measurement uncertainty with poor information. (paper)

Exploring entropic uncertainty relation in the Heisenberg XX model with inhomogeneous magnetic field

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Huang, Ai-Jun; Wang, Dong; Wang, Jia-Ming; Shi, Jia-Dong; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2017-08-01

In this work, we investigate the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation in a two-qubit Heisenberg XX model with inhomogeneous magnetic field. It has been found that larger coupling strength J between the two spin-chain qubits can effectively reduce the entropic uncertainty. Besides, we observe the mechanics of how the inhomogeneous field influences the uncertainty, and find out that when the inhomogeneous field parameter b1. Intriguingly, the entropic uncertainty can shrink to zero when the coupling coefficients are relatively large, while the entropic uncertainty only reduces to 1 with the increase of the homogeneous magnetic field. Additionally, we observe the purity of the state and Bell non-locality and obtain that the entropic uncertainty is anticorrelated with both the purity and Bell non-locality of the evolution state.

Multidimensional entropic uncertainty relation based on a commutator matrix in position and momentum spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Hertz, Anaelle; Vanbever, Luc; Cerf, Nicolas J.

2018-01-01

The uncertainty relation for continuous variables due to Byałinicki-Birula and Mycielski [I. Białynicki-Birula and J. Mycielski, Commun. Math. Phys. 44, 129 (1975), 10.1007/BF01608825] expresses the complementarity between two n -tuples of canonically conjugate variables (x1,x2,...,xn) and (p1,p2,...,pn) in terms of Shannon differential entropy. Here we consider the generalization to variables that are not canonically conjugate and derive an entropic uncertainty relation expressing the balance between any two n -variable Gaussian projective measurements. The bound on entropies is expressed in terms of the determinant of a matrix of commutators between the measured variables. This uncertainty relation also captures the complementarity between any two incompatible linear canonical transforms, the bound being written in terms of the corresponding symplectic matrices in phase space. Finally, we extend this uncertainty relation to Rényi entropies and also prove a covariance-based uncertainty relation which generalizes the Robertson relation.

The Effect of Uncertainty in Exposure Estimation on the Exposure-Response Relation between 1,3-Butadiene and Leukemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Maldonado

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract: In a follow-up study of mortality among North American synthetic rubber industry workers, cumulative exposure to 1,3-butadiene was positively associated with leukemia. Problems with historical exposure estimation, however, may have distorted the association. To evaluate the impact of potential inaccuracies in exposure estimation, we conducted uncertainty analyses of the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia. We created the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates using job-exposure matrices consisting of exposure values that corresponded to randomly selected percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of plant-, work area/job group-, and year specific butadiene ppm. We then analyzed the relation between cumulative exposure to butadiene and leukemia for each of the 1,000 sets of butadiene estimates. In the uncertainty analysis, the point estimate of the RR for the first non zero exposure category (>0–<37.5 ppm-years was most likely to be about 1.5. The rate ratio for the second exposure category (37.5–<184.7 ppm-years was most likely to range from 1.5 to 1.8. The RR for category 3 of exposure (184.7–<425.0 ppm-years was most likely between 2.1 and 3.0. The RR for the highest exposure category (425.0+ ppm-years was likely to be between 2.9 and 3.7. This range off RR point estimates can best be interpreted as a probability distribution that describes our uncertainty in RR point estimates due to uncertainty in exposure estimation. After considering the complete probability distributions of butadiene exposure estimates, the exposure-response association of butadiene and leukemia was maintained. This exercise was a unique example of how uncertainty analyses can be used to investigate and support an observed measure of effect when occupational exposure estimates are employed in the absence of direct exposure measurements.

Detecting quantum entanglement. Entanglement witnesses and uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guehne, O.

2004-01-01

This thesis deals with methods of the detection of entanglement. After recalling some facts and definitions concerning entanglement and separability, we investigate two methods of the detection of entanglement. In the first part of this thesis we consider so-called entanglement witnesses, mainly in view of the detection of multipartite entanglement. Entanglement witnesses are observables for which a negative expectation value indicates entanglement. We first present a simple method to construct these witnesses. Since witnesses are nonlocal observables, they are not easy to measure in a real experiment. However, as we will show, one can circumvent this problem by decomposing the witness into several local observables which can be measured separately. We calculate the local decompositions for several interesting witnesses for two, three and four qubits. Local decompositions can be optimized in the number of measurement settings which are needed for an experimental implementation. We present a method to prove that a given local decomposition is optimal and discuss with this the optimality of our decompositions. Then we present another method of designing witnesses which are by construction measurable with local measurements. Finally, we shortly report on experiments where some of the witnesses derived in this part have been used to detect three- and four-partite entanglement of polarized photons. The second part of this thesis deals with separability criteria which are written in terms of uncertainty relations. There are two different formulations of uncertainty relations since one can measure the uncertainty of an observable by its variance as well as by entropic quantities. We show that both formulations are useful tools for the derivation of separability criteria for finite-dimensional systems and investigate the resulting criteria. Our results in this part exhibit also some more fundamental properties of entanglement: We show how known separability criteria for

Differentiating intolerance of uncertainty from three related but distinct constructs.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosen, Natalie O; Ivanova, Elena; Knäuper, Bärbel

2014-01-01

Individual differences in uncertainty have been associated with heightened anxiety, stress and approach-oriented coping. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a trait characteristic that arises from negative beliefs about uncertainty and its consequences. Researchers have established the central role of IU in the development of problematic worry and maladaptive coping, highlighting the importance of this construct to anxiety disorders. However, there is a need to improve our understanding of the phenomenology of IU. The goal of this paper was to present hypotheses regarding the similarities and differences between IU and three related constructs--intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty orientation, and need for cognitive closure--and to call for future empirical studies to substantiate these hypotheses. To assist with achieving this goal, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, which also served to identify current gaps in knowledge. This paper differentiates these constructs by outlining each definition and general approaches to assessment, reviewing the existing empirical relations, and proposing theoretical similarities and distinctions. Findings may assist researchers in selecting the appropriate construct to address their research questions. Future research directions for the application of these constructs, particularly within the field of clinical and health psychology, are discussed.

Symmetry, Contingency, Complexity: Accommodating Uncertainty in Public Relations Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Priscilla

2000-01-01

Explores the potential of complexity theory as a unifying theory in public relations, where scholars have recently raised problems involving flux, uncertainty, adaptiveness, and loss of control. Describes specific complexity-based methodologies and their potential for public relations studies. Offers an account of complexity theory, its…

Experimental Test of Entropic Noise-Disturbance Uncertainty Relations for Spin-1/2 Measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Sulyok, Georg; Sponar, Stephan; Demirel, Bülent; Buscemi, Francesco; Hall, Michael J W; Ozawa, Masanao; Hasegawa, Yuji

2015-07-17

Information-theoretic definitions for noise and disturbance in quantum measurements were given in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 050401 (2014)] and a state-independent noise-disturbance uncertainty relation was obtained. Here, we derive a tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for complementary qubit observables and carry out an experimental test. Successive projective measurements on the neutron's spin-1/2 system, together with a correction procedure which reduces the disturbance, are performed. Our experimental results saturate the tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for qubits when an optimal correction procedure is applied.

On uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatovich, V.K.

2004-01-01

Uncertainty relations (UR) are shown to have nothing specific for quantum mechanics (QM), being the general property valid for the arbitrary function. A wave function of a particle simultaneously having a precisely defined position and momentum in QM is demonstrated. Interference on two slits in a screen is shown to exist in classical mechanics. A nonlinear classical system of equations replacing the QM Schroedinger equation is suggested. This approach is shown to have nothing in common with the Bohm mechanics

Uncertainty relations and topological-band insulator transitions in 2D gapped Dirac materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romera, E; Calixto, M

2015-01-01

Uncertainty relations are studied for a characterization of topological-band insulator transitions in 2D gapped Dirac materials isostructural with graphene. We show that the relative or Kullback–Leibler entropy in position and momentum spaces, and the standard variance-based uncertainty relation give sharp signatures of topological phase transitions in these systems. (paper)

Uncertainty characterization of HOAPS 3.3 latent heat-flux-related parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Liman, Julian; Schröder, Marc; Fennig, Karsten; Andersson, Axel; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-03-01

Latent heat flux (LHF) is one of the main contributors to the global energy budget. As the density of in situ LHF measurements over the global oceans is generally poor, the potential of remotely sensed LHF for meteorological applications is enormous. However, to date none of the available satellite products have included estimates of systematic, random, and sampling uncertainties, all of which are essential for assessing their quality. Here, the challenge is taken on by matching LHF-related pixel-level data of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) climatology (version 3.3) to in situ measurements originating from a high-quality data archive of buoys and selected ships. Assuming the ground reference to be bias-free, this allows for deriving instantaneous systematic uncertainties as a function of four atmospheric predictor variables. The approach is regionally independent and therefore overcomes the issue of sparse in situ data densities over large oceanic areas. Likewise, random uncertainties are derived, which include not only a retrieval component but also contributions from in situ measurement noise and the collocation procedure. A recently published random uncertainty decomposition approach is applied to isolate the random retrieval uncertainty of all LHF-related HOAPS parameters. It makes use of two combinations of independent data triplets of both satellite and in situ data, which are analysed in terms of their pairwise variances of differences. Instantaneous uncertainties are finally aggregated, allowing for uncertainty characterizations on monthly to multi-annual timescales. Results show that systematic LHF uncertainties range between 15 and 50 W m-2 with a global mean of 25 W m-2. Local maxima are mainly found over the subtropical ocean basins as well as along the western boundary currents. Investigations indicate that contributions from qa (U) to the overall LHF uncertainty are on the order of 60 % (25 %). From an

STEM Education Related Dissertation Abstracts: A Bounded Qualitative Meta-study

Science.gov (United States)

Banning, James; Folkestad, James E.

2012-12-01

This article utilizes a bounded qualitative meta-study framework to examine the 101 dissertation abstracts found by searching the ProQuest Dissertation and Theses™ digital database for dissertations abstracts from 1990 through 2010 using the search terms education, science, technology, engineer, and STEM/SMET. Professional search librarians established the search criteria used to establish the database. The overarching research question for this study was: What can we learn from the examination of doctoral dissertations abstracts that focus on the STEM education found from 1990 through 2010? The study's findings provide an overview of doctoral research related to STEM education and the discussion section focuses on quality of abstracts, questions regarding the use of the pipeline metaphor, and location of instructional innovation.

Instrumentation-related uncertainty of reflectance and transmittance measurements with a two-channel spectrophotometer.

Science.gov (United States)

Peest, Christian; Schinke, Carsten; Brendel, Rolf; Schmidt, Jan; Bothe, Karsten

2017-01-01

Spectrophotometers are operated in numerous fields of science and industry for a variety of applications. In order to provide confidence for the measured data, analyzing the associated uncertainty is valuable. However, the uncertainty of the measurement results is often unknown or reduced to sample-related contributions. In this paper, we describe our approach for the systematic determination of the measurement uncertainty of the commercially available two-channel spectrophotometer Agilent Cary 5000 in accordance with the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements. We focus on the instrumentation-related uncertainty contributions rather than the specific application and thus outline a general procedure which can be adapted for other instruments. Moreover, we discover a systematic signal deviation due to the inertia of the measurement amplifier and develop and apply a correction procedure. Thereby we increase the usable dynamic range of the instrument by more than one order of magnitude. We present methods for the quantification of the uncertainty contributions and combine them into an uncertainty budget for the device.

Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Han, D. (Editor); Peng, Kunchi (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Manko, V. I. (Editor)

1996-01-01

The fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China, on June 5 - 9, 1995. This conference was jointly organized by Shanxi University, the University of Maryland (U.S.A.), and the Lebedev Physical Institute (Russia). The first meeting of this series was called the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations, and was held in 1991 at College Park, Maryland. The second and third meetings in this series were hosted in 1992 by the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, and in 1993 by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, respectively. The scientific purpose of this series was initially to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years, the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics, including, of course, quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic transformation. This transition took place at the fourth meeting of this series held at Shanxi University in 1995. The fifth meeting in this series will be held in Budapest (Hungary) in 1997, and the principal organizer will be Jozsef Janszky of the Laboratory of Crystal Physics, P.O. Box 132, H-1052. Budapest, Hungary.

Correlated quadratures of resonance fluorescence and the generalized uncertainty relation

Science.gov (United States)

Arnoldus, Henk F.; George, Thomas F.; Gross, Rolf W. F.

1994-01-01

Resonance fluorescence from a two-state atom has been predicted to exhibit quadrature squeezing below the Heisenberg uncertainty limit, provided that the optical parameters (Rabi frequency, detuning, laser linewidth, etc.) are chosen carefully. When the correlation between two quadratures of the radiation field does not vanish, however, the Heisenberg limit for quantum fluctuations might be an unrealistic lower bound. A generalized uncertainty relation, due to Schroedinger, takes into account the possible correlation between the quadrature components of the radiation, and it suggests a modified definition of squeezing. We show that the coherence between the two levels of a laser-driven atom is responsible for the correlation between the quadrature components of the emitted fluorescence, and that the Schrodinger uncertainty limit increases monotonically with the coherence. On the other hand, the fluctuations in the quadrature field diminish with an increasing coherence, and can disappear completely when the coherence reaches 1/2, provided that certain phase relations hold.

Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.

2012-01-01

Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.

Complementarity and the Nature of Uncertainty Relations in Einstein–Bohr Recoiling Slit Experiment

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Shogo Tanimura

2015-07-01

Full Text Available A model of the Einstein–Bohr recoiling slit experiment is formulated in a fully quantum theoretical setting. In this model, the state and dynamics of a movable wall that has two slits in it, as well as the state of a particle incoming to the two slits, are described by quantum mechanics. Using this model, we analyzed complementarity between exhibiting an interference pattern and distinguishing the particle path. Comparing the Kennard–Robertson type and the Ozawa-type uncertainty relations, we conclude that the uncertainty relation involved in the double-slit experiment is not the Ozawa-type uncertainty relation but the Kennard-type uncertainty relation of the position and the momentum of the double-slit wall. A possible experiment to test the complementarity relation is suggested. It is also argued that various phenomena which occur at the interface of a quantum system and a classical system, including distinguishability, interference, decoherence, quantum eraser, and weak value, can be understood as aspects of entanglement. Quanta 2015; 4: 1–9.

New Inequalities and Uncertainty Relations on Linear Canonical Transform Revisit

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Xu Guanlei

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The uncertainty principle plays an important role in mathematics, physics, signal processing, and so on. Firstly, based on definition of the linear canonical transform (LCT and the traditional Pitt's inequality, one novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains is obtained, which is connected with the LCT parameters a and b. Then one novel logarithmic uncertainty principle is derived from this novel Pitt's inequality in the LCT domains, which is associated with parameters of the two LCTs. Secondly, from the relation between the original function and LCT, one entropic uncertainty principle and one Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in the LCT domains are derived, which are associated with the LCT parameters a and b. The reason why the three lower bounds are only associated with LCT parameters a and b and independent of c and d is presented. The results show it is possible that the bounds tend to zeros.

The Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S.; Manko, V. I.

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Moscow, Russia, on 25-29 May 1992. The purpose of this workshop was to study possible applications of squeezed states of light. The Workshop brought together many active researchers in squeezed states of light and those who may find the concept of squeezed states useful in their research, particularly in understanding the uncertainty relations. It was found at this workshop that the squeezed state has a much broader implication than the two-photon coherent states in quantum optics, since the squeeze transformation is one of the most fundamental transformations in physics.

A new uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kranold, H.U.

1984-01-01

An uncertainty relation of the form ΔL 2 ΔSo >=sup(h/2π)/sub(2) is derived for angular momentum and angle. The non-linear operator So measures angles and has a simple interpretation. Subject to very general conditions of rotational invariance the above relation is unique. Radial momentum is not quantized

Dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation in coupled harmonic oscillator system: exact results

Science.gov (United States)

Park, DaeKil

2018-06-01

The dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation is explored by solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for coupled harmonic oscillator system analytically when the angular frequencies and coupling constant are arbitrarily time dependent. We derive the spectral and Schmidt decompositions for vacuum solution. Using the decompositions, we derive the analytical expressions for von Neumann and Rényi entropies. Making use of Wigner distribution function defined in phase space, we derive the time dependence of position-momentum uncertainty relations. To show the dynamics of entanglement and uncertainty relation graphically, we introduce two toy models and one realistic quenched model. While the dynamics can be conjectured by simple consideration in the toy models, the dynamics in the realistic quenched model is somewhat different from that in the toy models. In particular, the dynamics of entanglement exhibits similar pattern to dynamics of uncertainty parameter in the realistic quenched model.

Physical insight into the thermodynamic uncertainty relation using Brownian motion in tilted periodic potentials

Science.gov (United States)

Hyeon, Changbong; Hwang, Wonseok

2017-07-01

Using Brownian motion in periodic potentials V (x ) tilted by a force f , we provide physical insight into the thermodynamic uncertainty relation, a recently conjectured principle for statistical errors and irreversible heat dissipation in nonequilibrium steady states. According to the relation, nonequilibrium output generated from dissipative processes necessarily incurs an energetic cost or heat dissipation q , and in order to limit the output fluctuation within a relative uncertainty ɛ , at least 2 kBT /ɛ2 of heat must be dissipated. Our model shows that this bound is attained not only at near-equilibrium [f ≪V'(x ) ] but also at far-from-equilibrium [f ≫V'(x ) ] , more generally when the dissipated heat is normally distributed. Furthermore, the energetic cost is maximized near the critical force when the barrier separating the potential wells is about to vanish and the fluctuation of Brownian particles is maximized. These findings indicate that the deviation of heat distribution from Gaussianity gives rise to the inequality of the uncertainty relation, further clarifying the meaning of the uncertainty relation. Our derivation of the uncertainty relation also recognizes a bound of nonequilibrium fluctuations that the variance of dissipated heat (σq2) increases with its mean (μq), and it cannot be smaller than 2 kBT μq .

Realistic Approach of the Relations of Uncertainty of Heisenberg

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul E. Sterian

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the requirements of the principle of causality in the theory of relativity, one cannot make a device for the simultaneous measuring of the canonical conjugate variables in the conjugate Fourier spaces. Instead of admitting that a particle’s position and its conjugate momentum cannot be accurately measured at the same time, we consider the only probabilities which can be determined when working at subatomic level to be valid. On the other hand, based on Schwinger's action principle and using the quadridimensional form of the unitary transformation generator function of the quantum operators in the paper, the general form of the evolution equation for these operators is established. In the nonrelativistic case one obtains the Heisenberg's type evolution equations which can be particularized to derive Heisenberg's uncertainty relations. The analysis of the uncertainty relations as implicit evolution equations allows us to put into evidence the intrinsic nature of the correlation expressed by these equations in straight relations with the measuring process. The independence of the quantisation postulate from the causal evolution postulate of quantum mechanics is also put into discussion.

Entanglement detection via tighter local uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Chengjie; Zhang Yongsheng; Guo Guangcan; Nha, Hyunchul

2010-01-01

We propose an entanglement criterion based on local uncertainty relations (LURs) in a stronger form than the original LUR criterion introduced by Hofmann and Takeuchi [H. F. Hofmann and S. Takeuchi, Phys. Rev. A 68, 032103 (2003)]. Using arbitrarily chosen operators (A k ) and (B k ) of subsystems A and B, the tighter LUR criterion, which may be used not only for discrete variables but also for continuous variables, can detect more entangled states than the original criterion.

Comparison of uncertainties related to standardization of urine samples with volume and creatinine concentration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garde, Anne Helene; Hansen, Ase Marie; Kristiansen, Jesper

2004-01-01

When measuring biomarkers in urine, volume (and time) or concentration of creatinine are both accepted methods of standardization for diuresis. Both types of standardization contribute uncertainty to the final result. The aim of the present paper was to compare the uncertainty introduced when usi...... increase in convenience for the participants, when collecting small volumes rather than complete 24 h samples....... the two types of standardization on 24 h samples from healthy individuals. Estimates of uncertainties were based on results from the literature supplemented with data from our own studies. Only the difference in uncertainty related to the two standardization methods was evaluated. It was found...... that the uncertainty associated with creatinine standardization (19-35%) was higher than the uncertainty related to volume standardization (up to 10%, when not correcting for deviations from 24 h) for 24 h urine samples. However, volume standardization introduced an average bias of 4% due to missed volumes...

Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

Science.gov (United States)

Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and

Another two dark energy models motivated from Karolyhazy uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun, Cheng-Yi; Yang, Wen-Li; Song, Yu. [Northwest University, Institute of Modern Physics, Xian (China); Yue, Rui-Hong [Ningbo University, Faculty of Science, Ningbo (China)

2012-03-15

The Karolyhazy uncertainty relation indicates that there exists a minimal detectable cell {delta}t{sup 3} over the region t{sup 3} in Minkowski space-time. Due to the energy-time uncertainty relation, the energy of the cell {delta}t {sup 3} cannot be less {delta}t{sup -1}. Then we get a new energy density of metric fluctuations of Minkowski spacetime as {delta}t{sup -4}. Motivated by the energy density, we propose two new dark-energy models. One model is characterized by the age of the universe and the other is characterized by the conformal age of the universe. We find that in the two models, the dark energy mimics a cosmological constant in the late time. (orig.)

A quantum uncertainty relation based on Fisher's information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez-Moreno, P; Plastino, A R; Dehesa, J S, E-mail: pablos@ugr.es, E-mail: arplastino@ugr.es, E-mail: dehesa@ugr.es [Departamento de Fisica Atomica, Molecular y Nuclear and Instituto Carlos I de Fisica Teorica y Computacional, University of Granada, Granada (Spain)

2011-02-11

We explore quantum uncertainty relations involving the Fisher information functionals I{sub x} and I{sub p} evaluated, respectively, on a wavefunction {Psi}(x) defined on a D-dimensional configuration space and the concomitant wavefunction {Psi}-tilde(p) on the conjugate momentum space. We prove that the associated Fisher functionals obey the uncertainty relation I{sub x}I{sub p} {>=} 4D{sup 2} when either {Psi}(x) or {Psi}-tilde(p) is real. On the other hand, there is no lower bound to the above product for arbitrary complex wavefunctions. We give explicit examples of complex wavefunctions not obeying the above bound. In particular, we provide a parametrized wavefunction for which the product I{sub x}I{sub p} can be made arbitrarily small.

Measurement Uncertainty Relations for Discrete Observables: Relative Entropy Formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Barchielli, Alberto; Gregoratti, Matteo; Toigo, Alessandro

2018-02-01

We introduce a new information-theoretic formulation of quantum measurement uncertainty relations, based on the notion of relative entropy between measurement probabilities. In the case of a finite-dimensional system and for any approximate joint measurement of two target discrete observables, we define the entropic divergence as the maximal total loss of information occurring in the approximation at hand. For fixed target observables, we study the joint measurements minimizing the entropic divergence, and we prove the general properties of its minimum value. Such a minimum is our uncertainty lower bound: the total information lost by replacing the target observables with their optimal approximations, evaluated at the worst possible state. The bound turns out to be also an entropic incompatibility degree, that is, a good information-theoretic measure of incompatibility: indeed, it vanishes if and only if the target observables are compatible, it is state-independent, and it enjoys all the invariance properties which are desirable for such a measure. In this context, we point out the difference between general approximate joint measurements and sequential approximate joint measurements; to do this, we introduce a separate index for the tradeoff between the error of the first measurement and the disturbance of the second one. By exploiting the symmetry properties of the target observables, exact values, lower bounds and optimal approximations are evaluated in two different concrete examples: (1) a couple of spin-1/2 components (not necessarily orthogonal); (2) two Fourier conjugate mutually unbiased bases in prime power dimension. Finally, the entropic incompatibility degree straightforwardly generalizes to the case of many observables, still maintaining all its relevant properties; we explicitly compute it for three orthogonal spin-1/2 components.

Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janice Penrod

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal investigation into the meaning of the concept. Through concept analysis, the concept was deconstructed to identify conceptual components and gaps in understanding. Using this skeletal framework of the concept identified through concept analysis, subsequent studies were carried out to add ‘flesh’ to the concept. First, a concept refinement using the literature as data was completed. Findings revealed that the current state of the concept of uncertainty failed to incorporate what was known of the lived experience. Therefore, using interview techniques as the primary data source, a phenomenological study of uncertainty among caregivers was conducted. Incorporating the findings of the phenomenology, the skeletal framework of the concept was further fleshed out using techniques of concept correction to produce a more mature conceptualization of uncertainty. In this section, I describe the flow of this qualitative project investigating the concept of uncertainty, with special emphasis on a particular threat to validity (called conceptual tunnel vision that was identified and addressed during the phases of concept correction. Though in this article I employ a study of uncertainty for illustration, limited substantive findings regarding uncertainty are presented to retain a clear focus on the methodological issues.

Heisenberg's uncertainty relation: Violation and reformulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozawa, Masanao

2014-01-01

The uncertainty relation formulated by Heisenberg in 1927 describes a trade-off between the error of a measurement of one observable and the disturbance caused on another complementary observable so that their product should be no less than a limit set by Planck's constant. In 1980, Braginsky, Vorontsov, and Thorne claimed that this relation leads to a sensitivity limit for gravitational wave detectors. However, in 1988 a model of position measurement was constructed that breaks both this limit and Heisenberg's relation. Here, we discuss the problems as to how we reformulate Heisenberg's relation to be universally valid and how we experimentally quantify the error and the disturbance to refute the old relation and to confirm the new relation.

Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Significances for Physics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru S.

2010-10-01

Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial significances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.

Event-related potentials reveal the relations between feature representations at different levels of abstraction.

Science.gov (United States)

Hannah, Samuel D; Shedden, Judith M; Brooks, Lee R; Grundy, John G

2016-11-01

In this paper, we use behavioural methods and event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the relations between informational and instantiated features, as well as the relation between feature abstraction and rule type. Participants are trained to categorize two species of fictitious animals and then identify perceptually novel exemplars. Critically, two groups are given a perfectly predictive counting rule that, according to Hannah and Brooks (2009. Featuring familiarity: How a familiar feature instantiation influences categorization. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology/Revue Canadienne de Psychologie Expérimentale, 63, 263-275. Retrieved from http://doi.org/10.1037/a0017919), should orient them to using abstract informational features when categorizing the novel transfer items. A third group is taught a feature list rule, which should orient them to using detailed instantiated features. One counting-rule group were taught their rule before any exposure to the actual stimuli, and the other immediately after training, having learned the instantiations first. The feature-list group were also taught their rule after training. The ERP results suggest that at test, the two counting-rule groups processed items differently, despite their identical rule. This not only supports the distinction that informational and instantiated features are qualitatively different feature representations, but also implies that rules can readily operate over concrete inputs, in contradiction to traditional approaches that assume that rules necessarily act on abstract inputs.

Cauchy inequality and uncertainty relations for mixed states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirokov, M.I.

2004-01-01

Cauchy inequality (CI) relates scalar products of two vectors and their norms. I point out other similar inequalities (SI). Starting with CI Schroedinger derived his uncertainty relation (UR). By using SI other various UR can be obtained. It is shown that they follow from the Schroedinger UR. Two generalizations of CI are obtained for mixed states described by density matrices. Using them two generalizations of UR for mixed states are derived. Both differ from the UR generalization known from the literature. The discussion of these generalizations is given

Event-by-event simulation of single-neutron experiments to test uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raedt, H De; Michielsen, K

2014-01-01

Results from a discrete-event simulation of a recent single-neutron experiment that tests Ozawa's generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty relation are presented. The event-based simulation algorithm reproduces the results of the quantum theoretical description of the experiment but does not require the knowledge of the solution of a wave equation, nor does it rely on detailed concepts of quantum theory. In particular, the data from these non-quantum simulations satisfy uncertainty relations derived in the context of quantum theory. (paper)

SATURATED ZONE FLOW AND TRANSPORT MODEL ABSTRACTION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

B.W. ARNOLD

2004-01-01

The purpose of the saturated zone (SZ) flow and transport model abstraction task is to provide radionuclide-transport simulation results for use in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for license application (LA) calculations. This task includes assessment of uncertainty in parameters that pertain to both groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in the models used for this purpose. This model report documents the following: (1) The SZ transport abstraction model, which consists of a set of radionuclide breakthrough curves at the accessible environment for use in the TSPA-LA simulations of radionuclide releases into the biosphere. These radionuclide breakthrough curves contain information on radionuclide-transport times through the SZ. (2) The SZ one-dimensional (I-D) transport model, which is incorporated in the TSPA-LA model to simulate the transport, decay, and ingrowth of radionuclide decay chains in the SZ. (3) The analysis of uncertainty in groundwater-flow and radionuclide-transport input parameters for the SZ transport abstraction model and the SZ 1-D transport model. (4) The analysis of the background concentration of alpha-emitting species in the groundwater of the SZ

Interpretation of uncertainty relations for three or more observables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirokov, M.I.

2003-01-01

Conventional quantum uncertainty relations (URs) contain dispersions of two observables. Generalized URs are known which contain three or more dispersions. They are derived here starting with suitable generalized Cauchy inequalities. It is shown what new information the generalized URs provide. Similar interpretation is given to generalized Cauchy inequalities

Research Article Abstracts in Two Related Disciplines: Rhetorical Variation between Linguistics and Applied Linguistics

Science.gov (United States)

Suntara, Watinee; Usaha, Siriluck

2013-01-01

The previous studies on abstracts (e.g., Santos, 1996; Samraj, 2002; Pho, 2008) illustrate that disciplinary variation in research article abstracts is discernible. However, the studies of abstracts from two related disciplines are still limited. The present study aimed to explore the rhetorical moves of abstracts in the fields of linguistics and…

Entropic uncertainty relations in the Heisenberg XXZ model and its controlling via filtering operations

Science.gov (United States)

Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Shi, Wei-Nan; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2018-04-01

The uncertainty principle is recognized as an elementary ingredient of quantum theory and sets up a significant bound to predict outcome of measurement for a couple of incompatible observables. In this work, we develop dynamical features of quantum memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (QMA-EUR) in a two-qubit Heisenberg XXZ spin chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field. We specifically derive the dynamical evolutions of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement in the Heisenberg XXZ model when spin A is initially correlated with quantum memory B. It has been found that the larger coupling strength J of the ferromagnetism ( J 0 ) chains can effectively degrade the measuring uncertainty. Besides, it turns out that the higher temperature can induce the inflation of the uncertainty because the thermal entanglement becomes relatively weak in this scenario, and there exists a distinct dynamical behavior of the uncertainty when an inhomogeneous magnetic field emerges. With the growing magnetic field | B | , the variation of the entropic uncertainty will be non-monotonic. Meanwhile, we compare several different optimized bounds existing with the initial bound proposed by Berta et al. and consequently conclude Adabi et al.'s result is optimal. Moreover, we also investigate the mixedness of the system of interest, dramatically associated with the uncertainty. Remarkably, we put forward a possible physical interpretation to explain the evolutionary phenomenon of the uncertainty. Finally, we take advantage of a local filtering operation to steer the magnitude of the uncertainty. Therefore, our explorations may shed light on the entropic uncertainty under the Heisenberg XXZ model and hence be of importance to quantum precision measurement over solid state-based quantum information processing.

Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey

OpenAIRE

dogru, bulent

2014-01-01

Abstract: In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation ...

The Conflict between Interpersonal Relations and Abstract Systems in Education

Science.gov (United States)

Endres, Benjamin

2007-01-01

In this essay, Benjamin Endres examines how teaching is caught between the ideals of formal, systemic institutions, on the one hand, and the ideals of more intimate or personal relations, on the other. Endres uses Anthony Giddens's account of "abstract systems" and "pure" relations to suggest that the tension that teachers face is not only the…

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Significances for Physics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru S.

2010-10-01

Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial signif- icances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.

The angle-angular momentum and entropic uncertainty relations for quantum scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.

1999-01-01

Recently the entropic uncertainty relations are obtained in a more general form by using Tsallis-like entropies for the quantum scattering. Hence, using Riesz theorem, the state-independent entropic angle-angular momentum uncertainty relations are proved for the Tsallis-like scattering entropies of spinless particles. The generalized entropic inequalities for the Tsallis-like entropies are presented. The two upper bounds are optimal bounds and can be obtained via Lagrange multipliers by extremizing the Tsallis-like entropies subject to the normalization constraints, respectively. The proof of the lower bound is provided by considering the condition that the angular distribution of probability, P(x) has, everywhere, a finite magnitude. Next, by using the Riesz Theorem a general result was obtained, appearing as inequalities valid for the case of hadron-hadron scattering. An important entropic uncertainty relation for the scattering of spinless particle was thus obtained. For σ el and dσ/dΩ, fixed from experiment, we proved that the optimal scattering entropies are the maximum possible entropies in the scattering process. In as previous paper it was shown that the experimental values of the entropies for the pion--nucleus scatterings are systematically described by the optimal entropies, at all available pion kinetic energies. In this sense the obtained results can also be considered as new experimental signatures for the validity of the principle of minimum distance in space of scattering states. The extension of the optimal state analysis to the generalized non-extensive statistics case, as well as, a test of the entropic inequalities, can be obtained in similar way by using non-extensive optimal entropies. Since this kind of analysis is more involved the numerical examples will be given in a following more extended paper. Finally, we believe that the results obtained here are encouraging for further investigations of the entropic uncertainty relations as well

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Sobolev inequality and the Tsallis entropic uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajagopal, A.K.

1995-01-01

The Heisenberg uncertainty relation is expressed in terms of the Tsallis entropies associated with the conjugate coordinate and momentum probability densities. By rewriting this in terms of a positive joint probability distribution suggested by Cohen and coworkers, a different insight into the statistical dependence of the quantum variables is obtained. A discussion of how this improves the previous results on this subject is given. (orig.)

Conditional uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

2018-04-01

We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

Observation of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation under open systems, and its steering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Peng-Fei; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

Quantum objects are susceptible to noise from their surrounding environments, interaction with which inevitably gives rise to quantum decoherence or dissipation effects. In this work, we examine how different types of local noise under an open system affect entropic uncertainty relations for two incompatible measurements. Explicitly, we observe the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory under two canonical categories of noisy environments: unital (phase flip) and nonunital (amplitude damping). Our study shows that the measurement uncertainty exhibits a non-monotonic dynamical behavior—that is, the amount of the uncertainty will first inflate, and subsequently decrease, with the growth of decoherence strengths in the two channels. In contrast, the uncertainty decreases monotonically with the growth of the purity of the initial state shared in prior. In order to reduce the measurement uncertainty in noisy environments, we put forward a remarkably effective strategy to steer the magnitude of uncertainty by means of a local non-unitary operation (i.e. weak measurement) on the qubit of interest. It turns out that this non-unitary operation can greatly reduce the entropic uncertainty, upon tuning the operation strength. Our investigations might thereby offer an insight into the dynamics and steering of entropic uncertainty in open systems.

Relativity theory (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for 1970--1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grooms, D.W.

1976-03-01

Research studies are presented on special and general relativity. Gravitational theory, field theory, and space--time studies are included as are studies involving the Minkowski space, the Schrodinger equations, the Dirac equations, and the Lorentz transformations. (This updated bibliography contains 136 abstracts, 4 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

Sixth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

Science.gov (United States)

Han, D. (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Solimento, S. (Editor)

2000-01-01

These proceedings contain contributions from about 200 participants to the 6th International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations (ICSSUR'99) held in Naples May 24-29, 1999, and organized jointly by the University of Naples "Federico II," the University of Maryland at College Park, and the Lebedev Institute, Moscow. This was the sixth of a series of very successful meetings started in 1990 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland. The other meetings in the series were held in Moscow (1992), Baltimore (1993), Taiyuan P.R.C. (1995) and Balatonfuered, Hungary (1997). The present one was held at the campus Monte Sant'Angelo of the University "Federico II" of Naples. The meeting sought to provide a forum for updating and reviewing a wide range of quantum optics disciplines, including device developments and applications, and related areas of quantum measurements and quantum noise. Over the years, the ICSSUR Conference evolved from a meeting on quantum measurement sector of quantum optics, to a wide range of quantum optics themes, including multifacet aspects of generation, measurement, and applications of nonclassical light (squeezed and Schrodinger cat radiation fields, etc.), and encompassing several related areas, ranging from quantum measurement to quantum noise. ICSSUR'99 brought together about 250 people active in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on nonclassical light sources and related areas. The Conference was organized in 8 Sections: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations; Harmonic oscillators and squeeze transformations; Methods of quantum interference and correlations; Quantum measurements; Generation and characterisation of non-classical light; Quantum noise; Quantum communication and information; and Quantum-like systems.

Uncertainty of Water-hammer Loads for Safety Related Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seung Chan; Yoon, Duk Joo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LT., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

In this study, the basic methodology is base on ISO GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). For a given gas void volumes in the discharge piping, the maximum pressure of water hammer is defined in equation. From equation, uncertainty parameter is selected as U{sub s} (superficial velocity for the specific pipe size and corresponding area) of equation. The main uncertainty parameter (U{sub s}) is estimated by measurement method and Monte Carlo simulation. Two methods are in good agreement with the extended uncertainty. Extended uncertainty of the measurement and Monte Carlo simulation is 1.30 and 1.34 respectively in 95% confidence interval. In 99% confidence interval, the uncertainties are 1.95 and 1.97 respectively. NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the possibility of noncondensable gas accumulation for the Emergency Core Cooling System. Specially, gas accumulation can result in system pressure transient in pump discharge piping at a pump start. Consequently, this evolves into a gas water, a water-hammer event and the force imbalances on the piping segments. In this paper, MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) method is introduced in estimating the uncertainty of water hammer. The aim is to evaluate the uncertainty of the water hammer estimation results carried out by KHNP CRI in 2013.

Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts

OpenAIRE

Janice Penrod

2002-01-01

Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal in...

Characterizing quantum correlations. Entanglement, uncertainty relations and exponential families

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Niekamp, Soenke

2012-04-20

This thesis is concerned with different characterizations of multi-particle quantum correlations and with entropic uncertainty relations. The effect of statistical errors on the detection of entanglement is investigated. First, general results on the statistical significance of entanglement witnesses are obtained. Then, using an error model for experiments with polarization-entangled photons, it is demonstrated that Bell inequalities with lower violation can have higher significance. The question for the best observables to discriminate between a state and the equivalence class of another state is addressed. Two measures for the discrimination strength of an observable are defined, and optimal families of observables are constructed for several examples. A property of stabilizer bases is shown which is a natural generalization of mutual unbiasedness. For sets of several dichotomic, pairwise anticommuting observables, uncertainty relations using different entropies are constructed in a systematic way. Exponential families provide a classification of states according to their correlations. In this classification scheme, a state is considered as k-correlated if it can be written as thermal state of a k-body Hamiltonian. Witness operators for the detection of higher-order interactions are constructed, and an algorithm for the computation of the nearest k-correlated state is developed.

Characterizing quantum correlations. Entanglement, uncertainty relations and exponential families

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niekamp, Soenke

2012-01-01

This thesis is concerned with different characterizations of multi-particle quantum correlations and with entropic uncertainty relations. The effect of statistical errors on the detection of entanglement is investigated. First, general results on the statistical significance of entanglement witnesses are obtained. Then, using an error model for experiments with polarization-entangled photons, it is demonstrated that Bell inequalities with lower violation can have higher significance. The question for the best observables to discriminate between a state and the equivalence class of another state is addressed. Two measures for the discrimination strength of an observable are defined, and optimal families of observables are constructed for several examples. A property of stabilizer bases is shown which is a natural generalization of mutual unbiasedness. For sets of several dichotomic, pairwise anticommuting observables, uncertainty relations using different entropies are constructed in a systematic way. Exponential families provide a classification of states according to their correlations. In this classification scheme, a state is considered as k-correlated if it can be written as thermal state of a k-body Hamiltonian. Witness operators for the detection of higher-order interactions are constructed, and an algorithm for the computation of the nearest k-correlated state is developed.

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-01-01

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

Uncertainties Related to Extreme Event Statistics of Sewer System Surcharge and Overflow

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld; Johansen, C.; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

2005-01-01

Today it is common practice - in the major part of Europe - to base design of sewer systems in urban areas on recommended minimum values of flooding frequencies related to either pipe top level, basement level in buildings or level of road surfaces. Thus storm water runoff in sewer systems is only...... proceeding in an acceptable manner, if flooding of these levels is having an average return period bigger than a predefined value. This practice is also often used in functional analysis of existing sewer systems. If a sewer system can fulfil recommended flooding frequencies or not, can only be verified...... by performing long term simulations - using a sewer flow simulation model - and draw up extreme event statistics from the model simulations. In this context it is important to realize that uncertainties related to the input parameters of rainfall runoff models will give rise to uncertainties related...

Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment. Global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, Erin

2005-01-01

Global climate change is rife with uncertainties. Yet, we can expect to resolve much of this uncertainty in the next 100 years or so. Therefore, current actions should reflect the value of flexibility. Nevertheless, most models of climate change, particularly game-theoretic models, abstract from uncertainty. A model of the impacts of uncertainty and learning in a non-cooperative game shows that the level of correlation of damages across countries is crucial for determining optimal policy

Language-Agnostic Relation Extraction from Abstracts in Wikis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolas Heist

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Large-scale knowledge graphs, such as DBpedia, Wikidata, or YAGO, can be enhanced by relation extraction from text, using the data in the knowledge graph as training data, i.e., using distant supervision. While most existing approaches use language-specific methods (usually for English, we present a language-agnostic approach that exploits background knowledge from the graph instead of language-specific techniques and builds machine learning models only from language-independent features. We demonstrate the extraction of relations from Wikipedia abstracts, using the twelve largest language editions of Wikipedia. From those, we can extract 1.6 M new relations in DBpedia at a level of precision of 95%, using a RandomForest classifier trained only on language-independent features. We furthermore investigate the similarity of models for different languages and show an exemplary geographical breakdown of the information extracted. In a second series of experiments, we show how the approach can be transferred to DBkWik, a knowledge graph extracted from thousands of Wikis. We discuss the challenges and first results of extracting relations from a larger set of Wikis, using a less formalized knowledge graph.

Fisher information, kinetic energy and uncertainty relation inequalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo Shunlong

2002-01-01

By interpolating between Fisher information and mechanical kinetic energy, we introduce a general notion of kinetic energy with respect to a parameter of Schroedinger wavefunctions from a statistical inference perspective. Kinetic energy is the sum of Fisher information and an integral of a parametrized analogue of quantum mechanical current density related to phase. A family of integral inequalities concerning kinetic energy and moments are established, among which the Cramer-Rao inequality and the Weyl-Heisenberg inequality, are special cases. In particular, the integral inequalities involving the negative order moments are relevant to the study of electron systems. Moreover, by specifying the parameter to a scale, we obtain a family of inequalities of uncertainty relation type which incorporate the position and momentum observables symmetrically in a single quantity. (author)

A Variation on Uncertainty Principle and Logarithmic Uncertainty Principle for Continuous Quaternion Wavelet Transforms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawardi Bahri

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The continuous quaternion wavelet transform (CQWT is a generalization of the classical continuous wavelet transform within the context of quaternion algebra. First of all, we show that the directional quaternion Fourier transform (QFT uncertainty principle can be obtained using the component-wise QFT uncertainty principle. Based on this method, the directional QFT uncertainty principle using representation of polar coordinate form is easily derived. We derive a variation on uncertainty principle related to the QFT. We state that the CQWT of a quaternion function can be written in terms of the QFT and obtain a variation on uncertainty principle related to the CQWT. Finally, we apply the extended uncertainty principles and properties of the CQWT to establish logarithmic uncertainty principles related to generalized transform.

Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-11-01

Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, D.; Kim, Y.S.; Zachary, W.W.

1992-02-01

The proceedings from the workshop are presented, and the focus was on the application of squeezed states. There are many who say that the potential for industrial applications is enormous, as the history of the conventional laser suggests. All those who worked so hard to produce squeezed states of light are continuing their efforts to construct more efficient squeezed-state lasers. Quite naturally, they are looking for new experiments using these lasers. The physical basis of squeezed states is the uncertainty relation in Fock space, which is also the basis for the creation and annihilation of particles in quantum field theory. Indeed, squeezed states provide a unique opportunity for field theoreticians to develop a measurement theory for quantum field theory

Quantum scattering in one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph

2016-12-15

In quantum gravity theories, when the scattering energy is comparable to the Planck energy the Heisenberg uncertainty principle breaks down and is replaced by the minimal length uncertainty relation. In this paper, the consequences of the minimal length uncertainty relation on one-dimensional quantum scattering are studied using an approach involving a recently proposed second-order differential equation. An exact analytical expression for the tunneling probability through a locally-periodic rectangular potential barrier system is obtained. Results show that the existence of a non-zero minimal length uncertainty tends to shift the resonant tunneling energies to the positive direction. Scattering through a locally-periodic potential composed of double-rectangular potential barriers shows that the first band of resonant tunneling energies widens for minimal length cases when the double-rectangular potential barrier is symmetric but narrows down when the double-rectangular potential barrier is asymmetric. A numerical solution which exploits the use of Wronskians is used to calculate the transmission probabilities through the Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian barrier, and double-Gaussian barrier. Results show that the probability of passage through the Pöschl–Teller well and Gaussian barrier is smaller in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. For the double-Gaussian barrier, the probability of passage for energies that are more positive than the resonant tunneling energy is larger in the minimal length cases compared to the non-minimal length case. The approach is exact and applicable to many types of scattering potential.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Uncertainty and measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsberg, P.T.

1990-01-01

This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

The quantum entropic uncertainty relation and entanglement witness in the two-atom system coupling with the non-Markovian environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou, Hong-Mei; Fang, Mao-Fa; Yang, Bai-Yuan; Guo, You-Neng; He, Wei; Zhang, Shi-Yang

2014-01-01

The quantum entropic uncertainty relation and entanglement witness in the two-atom system coupling with the non-Markovian environments are studied using the time-convolutionless master-equation approach. The influence of the non-Markovian effect and detuning on the lower bound of the quantum entropic uncertainty relation and entanglement witness is discussed in detail. The results show that, only if the two non-Markovian reservoirs are identical, increasing detuning and non-Markovian effect can reduce the lower bound of the entropic uncertainty relation, lengthen the time region during which the entanglement can be witnessed, and effectively protect the entanglement region witnessed by the lower bound of the entropic uncertainty relation. The results can be applied in quantum measurement, quantum cryptography tasks and quantum information processing. (paper)

Parameter uncertainty analysis for the annual phosphorus loss estimator (APLE) model

Science.gov (United States)

Technical abstract: Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, we conduct an uncertainty analys...

Examining Dark Triad traits in relation to sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabouri, Sarah; Gerber, Markus; Lemola, Sakari; Becker, Stephen P; Shamsi, Mahin; Shakouri, Zeinab; Sadeghi Bahmani, Dena; Kalak, Nadeem; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2016-07-01

The Dark Triad (DT) describes a set of three closely related personality traits, Machiavellianism, narcissism, and psychopathy. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. A total of 341 adults (M=29years) completed a series of questionnaires related to the DT traits, sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. A higher DT total score was associated with increased sleep disturbances, and higher scores for anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty. In regression analyses Machiavellianism and psychopathy were predictors of sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity, and intolerance of uncertainty. Results indicate that specific DT traits, namely Machiavellianism and psychopathy, are associated with sleep disturbances, anxiety sensitivity and intolerance of uncertainty in young adults. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric local uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hofmann, Holger F.

2003-01-01

As a consequence of having a positive partial transpose, bound entangled states lack many of the properties otherwise associated with entanglement. It is therefore interesting to identify properties that distinguish bound entangled states from separable states. In this paper, it is shown that some bound entangled states violate a nonsymmetric class of local uncertainty relations [H. F. Hofmann and S. Takeuchi, Phys. Rev. A 68, 032103 (2003)]. This result indicates that the asymmetry of nonclassical correlations may be a characteristic feature of bound entanglement

Uncertainties related to numerical methods for neutron spectra unfolding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glodic, S.; Ninkovic, M.; Adarougi, N.A.

1987-10-01

One of the often used techniques for neutron detection in radiation protection utilities is the Bonner multisphere spectrometer. Besides its advantages and universal applicability for evaluating integral parameters of neutron fields in health physics practices, the outstanding problems of the method are data analysis and the accuracy of the results. This paper briefly discusses some numerical problems related to neutron spectra unfolding, such as uncertainty of the response matrix as a source of error, and the possibility of real time data reduction using spectrometers. (author)

Modeling and Performing Relational Theories in the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Suter, Elizabeth A.; West, Carrie L.

2011-01-01

Although directly related to students' everyday lives, the abstract and even intimidating nature of relational theories often bars students from recognizing the immediate relevance to their relationships. The theories of symbolic interactionism, social exchange, relational dialectics, social penetration, and uncertainty reduction offer students…

How to: understanding SWAT model uncertainty relative to measured results

Science.gov (United States)

Watershed models are being relied upon to contribute to most policy-making decisions of watershed management, and the demand for an accurate accounting of complete model uncertainty is rising. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a widely used method for quantifying uncertainty i...

Understanding of action-related and abstract verbs in comparison: a behavioral and TMS study.

Science.gov (United States)

Innocenti, Alessandro; De Stefani, Elisa; Sestito, Mariateresa; Gentilucci, Maurizio

2014-02-01

Does the comprehension of both action-related and abstract verbs rely on motor simulation? In a behavioral experiment, in which a semantic task was used, response times to hand-action-related verbs were briefer than those to abstract verbs and both decreased with repetition of presentation. In a transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) experiment, single-pulse stimulation was randomly delivered over hand motor area of the left primary motor cortex to measure cortical-spinal excitability at 300 or 500 ms after verb presentation. Two blocks of trials were run. In each block, the same verbs were randomly presented. In the first block, stimulation induced an increase in motor evoked potentials only when TMS was applied 300 ms after action-related verb presentation. In the second block, no modulation of motor cortex was found according to type of verb and stimulation-delay. These results confirm that motor simulation can be used to understand action rather than abstract verbs. Moreover, they suggest that with repetition, the semantic processing for action verbs does not require activation of primary motor cortex anymore.

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

2015-04-01

Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

Energy levels of one-dimensional systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernardo, Reginald Christian S., E-mail: rcbernardo@nip.upd.edu.ph; Esguerra, Jose Perico H., E-mail: jesguerra@nip.upd.edu.ph

2016-10-15

The standard approach to calculating the energy levels for quantum systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is to solve an eigenvalue problem involving a fourth- or higher-order differential equation in quasiposition space. It is shown that the problem can be reformulated so that the energy levels of these systems can be obtained by solving only a second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. Through this formulation the energy levels are calculated for the following potentials: particle in a box, harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well. For the particle in a box, the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation is a second-order differential equation with constant coefficients. For the harmonic oscillator, Pöschl–Teller well, Gaussian well, and double-Gaussian well, a method that involves using Wronskians has been used to solve the second-order quasiposition eigenvalue equation. It is observed for all of these quantum systems that the introduction of a nonzero minimal length uncertainty induces a positive shift in the energy levels. It is shown that the calculation of energy levels in systems satisfying the minimal length uncertainty relation is not limited to a small number of problems like particle in a box and the harmonic oscillator but can be extended to a wider class of problems involving potentials such as the Pöschl–Teller and Gaussian wells.

Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa

2011-01-01

In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...

Concept of uncertainty in relation to the foresight research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magruk Andrzej

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty is one of the most important features of many areas of social and economic life, especially in the forward-looking context. On the one hand, the degree of uncertainty is associated with the objective essence of randomness of the phenomenon, and on the other, with the subjective perspective of a man. Future-oriented perception of human activities is laden with an incomplete specificity of the analysed phenomena, their volatility, and lack of continuity. A man is unable to determine, with complete certainty, the further course of these phenomena. According to the author of this article, in order to significantly reduce the uncertainty while making strategic decisions in a complex environment, we should focus our actions on the future through systemic research of foresight. This article attempts to answer the following research questions: 1 What is the relationship between foresight studies in the system perspective to studies of the uncertainty? 2 What classes of foresight methods enable the research of uncertainty in the process of system inquiry of the future? This study conducted deductive reasoning based on the results of the analysis methods and criticism of literature.

Agent Performance in Vehicle Routing when the Only Thing Certain is Uncertainty (extended abstract)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahr, T.; Srour, J.; De Weerdt, M.M.; Zuidwijk, R.

2008-01-01

In this paper we investigate whether a distributed agent-based planning approach indeed suffers less from job arrival uncertainty than a centralized optimization-based approach. In order to compare the two different approaches, we use the best available algorithms for both sides.

Uncertainty modelling and analysis of environmental systems: a river sediment yield example

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Keesman, K.J.; Koskela, J.; Guillaume, J.H.; Norton, J.P.; Croke, B.; Jakeman, A.

2011-01-01

Abstract: Throughout the last decades uncertainty analysis has become an essential part of environmental model building (e.g. Beck 1987; Refsgaard et al., 2007). The objective of the paper is to introduce stochastic and setmembership uncertainty modelling concepts, which basically differ in the

Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Weisse, Andrea Y

2010-10-28

Abstract Background In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space. Results The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability. Conclusions While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.

Covariant energy–momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooperstock, F.I., E-mail: cooperst@uvic.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3055, Victoria, B.C. V8W 3P6 (Canada); Dupre, M.J., E-mail: mdupre@tulane.edu [Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118 (United States)

2013-12-15

We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy–momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum. -- Highlights: •We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. •Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energy–momentum. •Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. •New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. •Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum in strong gravity extreme.

Testing methodologies for quantifying physical models uncertainties. A comparative exercise using CIRCE and IPREM (FFTBM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freixa, Jordi, E-mail: jordi.freixa-terradas@upc.edu; Alfonso, Elsa de, E-mail: elsa.de.alfonso@upc.edu; Reventós, Francesc, E-mail: francesc.reventos@upc.edu

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Uncertainty of physical models are a key issue in Best estimate plus uncertainty analysis. • Estimation of uncertainties of physical models of thermal hydraulics system codes. • Comparison of CIRCÉ and FFTBM methodologies. • Simulation of reflood experiments in order to evaluate uncertainty of physical models related to the reflood scenario. - Abstract: The increasing importance of Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) analyses in nuclear safety and licensing processes have lead to several international activities. The latest findings highlighted the uncertainties of physical models as one of the most controversial aspects of BEPU. This type of uncertainties is an important contributor to the total uncertainty of NPP BE calculations. Due to the complexity of estimating this uncertainty, it is often assessed solely by engineering judgment. The present study comprises a comparison of two different state-of-the-art methodologies CIRCÉ and IPREM (FFTBM) capable of quantifying the uncertainty of physical models. Similarities and differences of their results are discussed through the observation of probability distribution functions and envelope calculations. In particular, the analyzed scenario is core reflood. Experimental data from the FEBA and PERICLES test facilities is employed while the thermal hydraulic simulations are carried out with RELAP5/mod3.3. This work is undertaken under the framework of PREMIUM (Post-BEMUSE Reflood Model Input Uncertainty Methods) benchmark.

High-voltage measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level with collinear laser spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Krämer, J.; König, K.; Geppert, Ch; Imgram, P.; Maaß, B.; Meisner, J.; Otten, E. W.; Passon, S.; Ratajczyk, T.; Ullmann, J.; Nörtershäuser, W.

2018-04-01

We present the results of high-voltage collinear laser spectroscopy measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level using a pump and probe scheme at the 4s ^2S1/2 → 4p ^2P3/2 transition of {\\hspace{0pt}}40Ca+ involving the 3d ^2D5/2 metastable state. With two-stage laser interaction and a reference measurement we can eliminate systematic effects such as differences in the contact potentials due to different electrode materials and thermoelectric voltages, and the unknown starting potential of the ions in the ion source. Voltage measurements were performed between  -5 kV and  -19 kV and parallel measurements with stable high-voltage dividers calibrated to 5 ppm relative uncertainty were used as a reference. Our measurements are compatible with the uncertainty limits of the high-voltage dividers and demonstrate an unprecedented (factor of 20) increase in the precision of direct laser-based high-voltage measurements.

Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Colleen; Gardoni, Paolo; Harris, Charles E

2011-09-01

Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

Reducing, Maintaining, or Escalating Uncertainty? The Development and Validation of Four Uncertainty Preference Scales Related to Cancer Information Seeking and Avoidance.

Science.gov (United States)

Carcioppolo, Nick; Yang, Fan; Yang, Qinghua

2016-09-01

Uncertainty is a central characteristic of many aspects of cancer prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Brashers's (2001) uncertainty management theory details the multifaceted nature of uncertainty and describes situations in which uncertainty can both positively and negatively affect health outcomes. The current study extends theory on uncertainty management by developing four scale measures of uncertainty preferences in the context of cancer. Two national surveys were conducted to validate the scales and assess convergent and concurrent validity. Results support the factor structure of each measure and provide general support across multiple validity assessments. These scales can advance research on uncertainty and cancer communication by providing researchers with measures that address multiple aspects of uncertainty management.

Uncertainty Principles on Two Step Nilpotent Lie Groups

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Abstract. We extend an uncertainty principle due to Cowling and Price to two step nilpotent Lie groups, which generalizes a classical theorem of Hardy. We also prove an analogue of Heisenberg inequality on two step nilpotent Lie groups.

Dealing with uncertainties in environmental burden of disease assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van der Sluijs Jeroen P

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions. These estimates often have various uncertainties and assumptions which are not always made explicit. Besides statistical uncertainty in input data and parameters – which is commonly addressed – a variety of other types of uncertainties may substantially influence the results of the assessment. We have reviewed how different types of uncertainties affect environmental burden of disease assessments, and we give suggestions as to how researchers could address these uncertainties. We propose the use of an uncertainty typology to identify and characterize uncertainties. Finally, we argue that uncertainties need to be identified, assessed, reported and interpreted in order for assessment results to adequately support decision making.

Management of uncertainties related to renewable generation participation in electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourry, Franck

2009-01-01

The operation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) units, such as wind or solar plants, is intrinsically dependent on the variability of the wind or solar resource. This makes large scale integration of RES into power systems particularly challenging. The research work in the frame of this thesis focuses on the participation of renewable power producers in liberalized electricity markets, and more precisely on the management of the regulation costs incurred by the producer for any imbalance between the contracted and delivered energy. In such context, the main objective of the thesis is to model and evaluate different methods for the management of imbalance penalties related to the participation of renewable power producers in short-term electricity markets. First, the thesis gives a classification of the existing solutions for the management of these imbalance penalties. A distinction is made between physical solutions which are related to the generation portfolio, and financial solutions which are based on market products. The physical solutions are considered in the frame of a Virtual Power Plant. A generic model of the imbalance penalty resulting from the use of physical or financial solutions is formulated, based on a market rule model. Then, the decision-making problem relative to both physical and financial solutions is formulated as an optimization problem under uncertainty. The approach is based on a loss function derived from the generic imbalance penalty model. Finally, the uncertainty related to the RES production is considered in the risk-based decision making process. The methods are illustrated using case studies based on real world data. (author)

Nuclear-data uncertainty propagations in burnup calculation for the PWR assembly

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Shen, Wei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • The DRAGON 5.0 and NECP-CACTI have been implemented in UNICORN. • The effects of different neutronics methods on S&U results were quantified. • Uncertainty analysis has been applied to burnup calculation of PWR assembly. • The uncertainties of eigenvalue and few-group constants have been quantified. - Abstract: In this paper, our home-developed lattice code NECP-CACTI has been implemented into our UNICORN code to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the lattice calculations. The verified multigroup cross-section perturbation model and methods of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are established and applied to different lattice codes in UNICORN. As DRAGON5.0 and NECP-CACTI are available for the lattice calculations in UNICORN now, the effects of different neutronics methods (including methods for the neutron-transport and resonance self-shielding calculations) on the results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were studied in this paper. Based on NECP-CACTI, uncertainty analysis using the statistical sampling method has been performed to the burnup calculation for the fresh-fueled TMI-1 assembly, propagating the nuclear-data uncertainties to k_∞ and two-group constants of the lattice calculation with depletions. As results shown, for different neutronics methods, it can be observed that different methods of the neutron-transport calculation introduce no differences to the results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, while different methods of the resonance self-shielding calculation would impact the results. With depletions of the TMI-1 assembly, for k_∞, the relative uncertainty varies between 0.45% and 0.60%; for two-group constants, the largest variation is between 0.35% and 2.56% for vΣ_f_,_2. Moreover, the most significant contributors to the uncertainty of k_∞ and two-group constants varied with depletions are determined.

Uncertainty Flow Facilitates Zero-Shot Multi-Label Learning in Affective Facial Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjun Bai

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Featured Application: The proposed Uncertainty Flow framework may benefit the facial analysis with its promised elevation in discriminability in multi-label affective classification tasks. Moreover, this framework also allows the efficient model training and between tasks knowledge transfer. The applications that rely heavily on continuous prediction on emotional valance, e.g., to monitor prisoners’ emotional stability in jail, can be directly benefited from our framework. Abstract: To lower the single-label dependency on affective facial analysis, it urges the fruition of multi-label affective learning. The impediment to practical implementation of existing multi-label algorithms pertains to scarcity of scalable multi-label training datasets. To resolve this, an inductive transfer learning based framework, i.e.,Uncertainty Flow, is put forward in this research to allow knowledge transfer from a single labelled emotion recognition task to a multi-label affective recognition task. I.e., the model uncertainty—which can be quantified in Uncertainty Flow—is distilled from a single-label learning task. The distilled model uncertainty ensures the later efficient zero-shot multi-label affective learning. On the theoretical perspective, within our proposed Uncertainty Flow framework, the feasibility of applying weakly informative priors, e.g., uniform and Cauchy prior, is fully explored in this research. More importantly, based on the derived weight uncertainty, three sets of prediction related uncertainty indexes, i.e., soft-max uncertainty, pure uncertainty and uncertainty plus are proposed to produce reliable and accurate multi-label predictions. Validated on our manual annotated evaluation dataset, i.e., the multi-label annotated FER2013, our proposed Uncertainty Flow in multi-label facial expression analysis exhibited superiority to conventional multi-label learning algorithms and multi-label compatible neural networks. The success of our

Robust portfolio selection under norm uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Wang

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract In this paper, we consider the robust portfolio selection problem which has a data uncertainty described by the ( p , w $(p,w$ -norm in the objective function. We show that the robust formulation of this problem is equivalent to a linear optimization problem. Moreover, we present some numerical results concerning our robust portfolio selection problem.

Stakeholder relations in the oil sands : managing uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2009-05-15

Alberta's oil sands are now at the crossroads of a series of significant and complex global issues that will require careful negotiation by all stakeholders involved in the oil sands industry. This paper discussed methods of managing uncertainty and risk related to the oil sands industry's agenda for the future. Oil sands developers must continue to secure permission from communities and other key stakeholders in order to develop oil sand projects. Stakeholder relations between oil sands operators, First Nations, and Metis Nation communities must ensure that respect is maintained while environmental impacts are minimized and long-term economic benefits are secured for all parties. Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) must ensure that oil sands resources are developed responsibly, and that environmental standards are maintained. Seven key shifts in stakeholder relations resulting from the recent economic crisis were identified. These included (1) withdrawal from the multi-stakeholder process, (2) increased focus on government to demonstrate policy leadership, (3) a stronger push from ENGOs to express environmental concerns, (4) global lobby and public relations efforts from ENGOs, (5) companies retreating to local community stakeholders, (6) more active demands from First Nations and Metis Nations groups, and (7) companies challenging ENGO campaigns. The study concluded by suggesting that government leadership is needed to clear policy and regulatory frameworks for Canada's oil sands.

Quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation in a Heisenberg XYZ chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Dong; Huang, Aijun; Ming, Fei; Sun, Wenyang; Lu, Heping; Liu, Chengcheng; Ye, Liu

2017-06-01

The uncertainty principle provides a nontrivial bound to expose the precision for the outcome of the measurement on a pair of incompatible observables in a quantum system. Therefore, it is of essential importance for quantum precision measurement in the area of quantum information processing. Herein, we investigate quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation (QMA-EUR) in a two-qubit Heisenberg \\boldsymbol{X}\\boldsymbol{Y}\\boldsymbol{Z} spin chain. Specifically, we observe the dynamics of QMA-EUR in a realistic model there are two correlated sites linked by a thermal entanglement in the spin chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field. It turns out that the temperature, the external inhomogeneous magnetic field and the field inhomogeneity can lift the uncertainty of the measurement due to the reduction of the thermal entanglement, and explicitly higher temperature, stronger magnetic field or larger inhomogeneity of the field can result in inflation of the uncertainty. Besides, it is found that there exists distinct dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty for ferromagnetism \\boldsymbol{}≤ft(\\boldsymbol{J}\\boldsymbol{0}\\right) chains. Moreover, we also verify that the measuring uncertainty is dramatically anti-correlated with the purity of the bipartite spin system, the greater purity can result in the reduction of the measuring uncertainty, vice versa. Therefore, our observations might provide a better understanding of the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty in the Heisenberg spin chain, and thus shed light on quantum precision measurement in the framework of versatile systems, particularly solid states.

Unveiling the decoherence effect of noise on the entropic uncertainty relation and its control by partially collapsed operations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Min-Nan; Sun, Wen-Yang; Huang, Ai-Jun; Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

In this work, we investigate the dynamics of quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations under open systems, and how to steer the uncertainty under different types of decoherence. Specifically, we develop the dynamical behaviors of the uncertainty of interest under two typical categories of noise; bit flipping and depolarizing channels. It has been shown that the measurement uncertainty firstly increases and then decreases with the growth of the decoherence strength in bit flipping channels. In contrast, the uncertainty monotonically increases with the increase of the decoherence strength in depolarizing channels. Notably, and to a large degree, it is shown that the uncertainty depends on both the systematic quantum correlation and the minimal conditional entropy of the observed subsystem. Moreover, we present a possible physical interpretation for these distinctive behaviors of the uncertainty within such scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a simple and effective strategy to reduce the entropic uncertainty by means of a partially collapsed operation—quantum weak measurement. Therefore, our investigations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the measurment uncertainty under decoherence, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement in open systems.

Uncertainty analysis in Monte Carlo criticality computations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi Ao

2011-01-01

Highlights: ► Two types of uncertainty methods for k eff Monte Carlo computations are examined. ► Sampling method has the least restrictions on perturbation but computing resources. ► Analytical method is limited to small perturbation on material properties. ► Practicality relies on efficiency, multiparameter applicability and data availability. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis is imperative for nuclear criticality risk assessments when using Monte Carlo neutron transport methods to predict the effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) for fissionable material systems. For the validation of Monte Carlo codes for criticality computations against benchmark experiments, code accuracy and precision are measured by both the computational bias and uncertainty in the bias. The uncertainty in the bias accounts for known or quantified experimental, computational and model uncertainties. For the application of Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis of fissionable material systems, an administrative margin of subcriticality must be imposed to provide additional assurance of subcriticality for any unknown or unquantified uncertainties. Because of a substantial impact of the administrative margin of subcriticality on economics and safety of nuclear fuel cycle operations, recently increasing interests in reducing the administrative margin of subcriticality make the uncertainty analysis in criticality safety computations more risk-significant. This paper provides an overview of two most popular k eff uncertainty analysis methods for Monte Carlo criticality computations: (1) sampling-based methods, and (2) analytical methods. Examples are given to demonstrate their usage in the k eff uncertainty analysis due to uncertainties in both neutronic and non-neutronic parameters of fissionable material systems.

Sensitivity, uncertainty assessment, and target accuracies related to radiotoxicity evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmiotti, G.; Salvatores, M.; Hill, R.N.

1994-01-01

Time-dependent sensitivity techniques, which have been used in the past for standard reactor applications, are adapted to calculate the impact of data uncertainties and to estimate target data accuracies in radiotoxicity evaluations. The methodology is applied to different strategies of radioactive waste management connected with the European Fast Reactor and the Integral Fast Reactor fuel cycles. Results are provided in terms of sensitivity coefficients of basic data (cross sections and decay constants), uncertainties of global radiotoxicity at different times of storing after discharge, and target data accuracies needed to satisfy maximum uncertainty limits

Abstracts

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2011-01-01

The Western Theories of War Ethics and Contemporary Controversies Li Xiaodong U Ruijing （4） [ Abstract] In the field of international relations, war ethics is a concept with distinct westem ideological color. Due to factors of history and reality, the in

On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2016-05-24

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

Value change in oil and gas production: V. Incorporation of uncertainties and determination of relative importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lerche, I.; Noeth, S.

2002-01-01

The influence of two fundamentally different types of uncertainty on the value of oil field production are investigated here. First considered is the uncertainty caused by the fact that the expected value estimate is not one of the possible outcomes. To correctly allow for the risk attendant upon using the expected value as a measure of worth, even with statistically sharp parameters, one needs to incorporate the uncertainty of the expected value. Using a simple example we show how such incorporation allows for a clear determination of the relative risk of projects that may have the same expected value but very different risks. We also show how each project can be risked on its own using the expected value and variance. This uncertainty type is due to the possible pathways for different outcomes even when parameters categorizing the system are taken to be known. Second considered is the risk due to the fact that parameters in oil field estimates are just estimates and, as such, have their own intrinsic errors that influence the possible outcomes and make them less certain. This sort of risk depends upon the uncertainty of each parameter, and also the type of distribution the parameters are taken to be drawn from. In addition, not all uncertainties in parameters values are of equal importance in influencing an outcome probability. We show how can determine the relative importance for the parameters and so determine where to place effort to resolve the dominant contributions to risk if it is possible to do so. Considerations of whether to acquire new information, and also whether to undertake further studies under such an uncertain environment, are used as vehicles to address these concerns of risk due to uncertainty. In general, an oil field development project has to contend with all the above types of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore of importance to have quantitative measures of risk so that one can compare and contrast the various effects, and so that

Effect of minimal length uncertainty on the mass-radius relation of white dwarfs

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, Arun; Nandy, Malay K.

2018-06-01

Generalized uncertainty relation that carries the imprint of quantum gravity introduces a minimal length scale into the description of space-time. It effectively changes the invariant measure of the phase space through a factor (1 + βp2) - 3 so that the equation of state for an electron gas undergoes a significant modification from the ideal case. It has been shown in the literature (Rashidi 2016) that the ideal Chandrasekhar limit ceases to exist when the modified equation of state due to the generalized uncertainty is taken into account. To assess the situation in a more complete fashion, we analyze in detail the mass-radius relation of Newtonian white dwarfs whose hydrostatic equilibria are governed by the equation of state of the degenerate relativistic electron gas subjected to the generalized uncertainty principle. As the constraint of minimal length imposes a severe restriction on the availability of high momentum states, it is speculated that the central Fermi momentum cannot have values arbitrarily higher than pmax ∼β - 1 / 2. When this restriction is imposed, it is found that the system approaches limiting mass values higher than the Chandrasekhar mass upon decreasing the parameter β to a value given by a legitimate upper bound. Instead, when the more realistic restriction due to inverse β-decay is considered, it is found that the mass and radius approach the values 1.4518 M⊙ and 601.18 km near the legitimate upper bound for the parameter β.

Group-Contribution based Property Estimation and Uncertainty analysis for Flammability-related Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frutiger, Jerome; Marcarie, Camille; Abildskov, Jens

2016-01-01

regression and outlier treatment have been applied to achieve high accuracy. Furthermore, linear error propagation based on covariance matrix of estimated parameters was performed. Therefore, every estimated property value of the flammability-related properties is reported together with its corresponding 95......%-confidence interval of the prediction. Compared to existing models the developed ones have a higher accuracy, are simple to apply and provide uncertainty information on the calculated prediction. The average relative error and correlation coefficient are 11.5% and 0.99 for LFL, 15.9% and 0.91 for UFL, 2...

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

Science.gov (United States)

DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.

Science.gov (United States)

DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler

2018-06-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our

Language of Uncertainty: the Expression of Decisional Conflict Related to Skin Cancer Prevention Recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Strekalova, Yulia A; James, Vaughan S

2017-09-01

User-generated information on the Internet provides opportunities for the monitoring of health information consumer attitudes. For example, information about cancer prevention may cause decisional conflict. Yet posts and conversations shared by health information consumers online are often not readily actionable for interpretation and decision-making due to their unstandardized format. This study extends prior research on the use of natural language as a predictor of consumer attitudes and provides a link to decision-making by evaluating the predictive role of uncertainty indicators expressed in natural language. Analyzed data included free-text comments and structured scale responses related to information about skin cancer prevention options. The study identified natural language indicators of uncertainty and showed that it can serve as a predictor of decisional conflict. The natural indicators of uncertainty reported here can facilitate the monitoring of health consumer perceptions about cancer prevention recommendations and inform education and communication campaign planning and evaluation.

Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.

Development of Property Models with Uncertainty Estimate for Process Design under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Sarup, Bent; Abildskov, Jens

more reliable predictions with a new and improved set of model parameters for GC (group contribution) based and CI (atom connectivity index) based models and to quantify the uncertainties in the estimated property values from a process design point-of-view. This includes: (i) parameter estimation using....... The comparison of model prediction uncertainties with reported range of measurement uncertainties is presented for the properties with related available data. The application of the developed methodology to quantify the effect of these uncertainties on the design of different unit operations (distillation column......, the developed methodology can be used to quantify the sensitivity of process design to uncertainties in property estimates; obtain rationally the risk/safety factors in process design; and identify additional experimentation needs in order to reduce most critical uncertainties....

Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

2018-01-01

Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for age-dependent unavailability model integrating test and maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kančev, Duško; Čepin, Marko

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Application of analytical unavailability model integrating T and M, ageing, and test strategy. ► Ageing data uncertainty propagation on system level assessed via Monte Carlo simulation. ► Uncertainty impact is growing with the extension of the surveillance test interval. ► Calculated system unavailability dependence on two different sensitivity study ageing databases. ► System unavailability sensitivity insights regarding specific groups of BEs as test intervals extend. - Abstract: The interest in operational lifetime extension of the existing nuclear power plants is growing. Consequently, plants life management programs, considering safety components ageing, are being developed and employed. Ageing represents a gradual degradation of the physical properties and functional performance of different components consequently implying their reduced availability. Analyses, which are being made in the direction of nuclear power plants lifetime extension are based upon components ageing management programs. On the other side, the large uncertainties of the ageing parameters as well as the uncertainties associated with most of the reliability data collections are widely acknowledged. This paper addresses the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses conducted utilizing a previously developed age-dependent unavailability model, integrating effects of test and maintenance activities, for a selected stand-by safety system in a nuclear power plant. The most important problem is the lack of data concerning the effects of ageing as well as the relatively high uncertainty associated to these data, which would correspond to more detailed modelling of ageing. A standard Monte Carlo simulation was coded for the purpose of this paper and utilized in the process of assessment of the component ageing parameters uncertainty propagation on system level. The obtained results from the uncertainty analysis indicate the extent to which the uncertainty of the selected

[Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

2015-04-01

This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley.

Science.gov (United States)

Loague, Keith; Blanke, James S; Mills, Melissa B; Diaz-Diaz, Ricardo; Corwin, Dennis L

2012-01-01

Precious groundwater resources across the United States have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management practices to prevent subsurface pollution. Presented here are the results from a series of regional-scale vulnerability assessments for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Two relatively simple indices, the retardation and attenuation factors, are used to estimate near-surface vulnerabilities based on the chemical properties of 32 pesticides and the variability of both soil characteristics and recharge rates across the SJV. The uncertainties inherit to these assessments, derived from the uncertainties within the chemical and soil data bases, are estimated using first-order analyses. The results are used to screen and rank the chemicals based on mobility and leaching potential, without and with consideration of data-related uncertainties. Chemicals of historic high visibility in the SJV (e.g., atrazine, DBCP [dibromochloropropane], ethylene dibromide, and simazine) are ranked in the top half of those considered. Vulnerability maps generated for atrazine and DBCP, featured for their legacy status in the study area, clearly illustrate variations within and across the assessments. For example, the leaching potential is greater for DBCP than for atrazine, the leaching potential for DBCP is greater for the spatially variable recharge values than for the average recharge rate, and the leaching potentials for both DBCP and atrazine are greater for the annual recharge estimates than for the monthly recharge estimates. The data-related uncertainties identified in this study can be significant, targeting opportunities for improving future vulnerability assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

The role of models in managing the uncertainty of software-intensive systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littlewood, Bev; Neil, Martin; Ostrolenk, Gary

1995-01-01

It is increasingly argued that uncertainty is an inescapable feature of the design and operational behaviour of software-intensive systems. This paper elaborates the role of models in managing such uncertainty, in relation to evidence and claims for dependability. Personal and group models are considered with regard to abstraction, consensus and corroboration. The paper focuses on the predictive property of models, arguing for the need for empirical validation of their trustworthiness through experimentation and observation. The impact on trustworthiness of human fallibility, formality of expression and expressiveness is discussed. The paper identifies two criteria for deciding the degree of trust to be placed in a model, and hence also for choosing between models, namely accuracy and informativeness. Finally, analogy and reuse are proposed as the only means by which empirical evidence can be established for models in software engineering

Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicari Kristin J

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented

Automatic activation of categorical and abstract analogical relations in analogical reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Adam E; Fugelsang, Jonathan A; Dunbar, Kevin N

2006-10-01

We examined activation of concepts during analogical reasoning. Subjects made either analogical judgments or categorical judgments about four-word sets. After each four-word set, they named the ink color of a single word in a modified Stroop task. Words that referred to category relations were primed (as indicated by longer response times on Stroop color naming) subsequent to analogical judgments and categorical judgments. This finding suggests that activation of category concepts plays a fundamental role in analogical thinking. When colored words referred to analogical relations, priming occurred subsequent to analogical judgments, but not to categorical judgments, even though identical four-word stimuli were used for both types of judgments. This finding lends empirical support to the hypothesis that, when people comprehend the analogy between two items, they activate an abstract analogical relation that is distinct from the specific content items that compose the analogy.

Information Seeking in Uncertainty Management Theory: Exposure to Information About Medical Uncertainty and Information-Processing Orientation as Predictors of Uncertainty Management Success.

Science.gov (United States)

Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva

2015-01-01

Uncertainty management theory outlines the processes through which individuals cope with health-related uncertainty. Information seeking has been frequently documented as an important uncertainty management strategy. The reported study investigates exposure to specific types of medical information during a search, and one's information-processing orientation as predictors of successful uncertainty management (i.e., a reduction in the discrepancy between the level of uncertainty one feels and the level one desires). A lab study was conducted in which participants were primed to feel more or less certain about skin cancer and then were allowed to search the World Wide Web for skin cancer information. Participants' search behavior was recorded and content analyzed. The results indicate that exposure to two health communication constructs that pervade medical forms of uncertainty (i.e., severity and susceptibility) and information-processing orientation predicted uncertainty management success.

Some uncertainty results obtained by the statistical version of the KARATE code system related to core design and safety analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Panka, Istvan; Hegyi, Gyoergy; Maraczy, Csaba; Temesvari, Emese [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Reactor Analysis Dept.

2017-11-15

The best-estimate KARATE code system has been widely used for core design calculations and simulations of slow transients of VVER reactors. Recently there has been an increasing need for assessing the uncertainties of such calculations by propagating the basic input uncertainties of the models through the full calculation chain. In order to determine the uncertainties of quantities of interest during the burnup, the statistical version of the KARATE code system has been elaborated. In the first part of the paper, the main features of the new code system are discussed. The applied statistical method is based on Monte-Carlo sampling of the considered input data taking into account mainly the covariance matrices of the cross sections and/or the technological uncertainties. In the second part of the paper, only the uncertainties of cross sections are considered and an equilibrium cycle related to a VVER-440 type reactor is investigated. The burnup dependence of the uncertainties of some safety related parameters (e.g. critical boron concentration, rod worth, feedback coefficients, assembly-wise radial power and burnup distribution) are discussed and compared to the recently used limits.

Review of studies related to uncertainty in risk analsis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rish, W.R.; Marnicio, R.J.

1988-08-01

The Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) is responsible for regulating on a national level the risks associated with technological sources of ionizing radiation in the environment. A critical activity of the ORP is analyzing and evaluating risk. The ORP believes that the analysis of uncertainty should be an integral part of any risk assessment; therefore, the ORP has initiated a project to develop framework for the treatment of uncertainty in risk analysis. Summaries of recent studies done in five areas of study are presented.

Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

Science.gov (United States)

Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

2010-05-01

Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

A select bibliography with abstracts of reports related to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant geotechnical studies (1972--1990)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Powers, D.W. [Powers (Dennis W.), Anthony, TX (United States); Martin, M.L. [International Technology, Inc., Las Vegas, NV (United States)

1993-08-01

This select bibliography contains 941 entries. Each bibliographic entry contains the citation of a report, conference paper, or journal article containing geotechnical information about the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The entries cover the period from 1972, when investigation began for a WIPP Site in southeastern New Mexico, through December 1990. Each entry is followed by an abstract. If an abstract or suitable summary existed, it has been included; 316 abstracts were written for other documents. For some entries, an annotation has been provided to clarify the abstract, comment on the setting and significance of the document, or guide the reader to related reports. An index of key words/phrases is included for all entries.

A select bibliography with abstracts of reports related to Waste Isolation Pilot Plant geotechnical studies (1972--1990)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Powers, D.W.; Martin, M.L.

1993-08-01

This select bibliography contains 941 entries. Each bibliographic entry contains the citation of a report, conference paper, or journal article containing geotechnical information about the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The entries cover the period from 1972, when investigation began for a WIPP Site in southeastern New Mexico, through December 1990. Each entry is followed by an abstract. If an abstract or suitable summary existed, it has been included; 316 abstracts were written for other documents. For some entries, an annotation has been provided to clarify the abstract, comment on the setting and significance of the document, or guide the reader to related reports. An index of key words/phrases is included for all entries

Parameters-related uncertainty in modeling sugar cane yield with an agro-Land Surface Model

Science.gov (United States)

Valade, A.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.; Viovy, N.; Ruget, F.; Gabrielle, B.

2012-12-01

Agro-Land Surface Models (agro-LSM) have been developed from the coupling of specific crop models and large-scale generic vegetation models. They aim at accounting for the spatial distribution and variability of energy, water and carbon fluxes within soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum with a particular emphasis on how crop phenology and agricultural management practice influence the turbulent fluxes exchanged with the atmosphere, and the underlying water and carbon pools. A part of the uncertainty in these models is related to the many parameters included in the models' equations. In this study, we quantify the parameter-based uncertainty in the simulation of sugar cane biomass production with the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS on a multi-regional approach with data from sites in Australia, La Reunion and Brazil. First, the main source of uncertainty for the output variables NPP, GPP, and sensible heat flux (SH) is determined through a screening of the main parameters of the model on a multi-site basis leading to the selection of a subset of most sensitive parameters causing most of the uncertainty. In a second step, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the parameters selected from the screening analysis at a regional scale. For this, a Monte-Carlo sampling method associated with the calculation of Partial Ranked Correlation Coefficients is used. First, we quantify the sensitivity of the output variables to individual input parameters on a regional scale for two regions of intensive sugar cane cultivation in Australia and Brazil. Then, we quantify the overall uncertainty in the simulation's outputs propagated from the uncertainty in the input parameters. Seven parameters are identified by the screening procedure as driving most of the uncertainty in the agro-LSM ORCHIDEE-STICS model output at all sites. These parameters control photosynthesis (optimal temperature of photosynthesis, optimal carboxylation rate), radiation interception (extinction coefficient), root

DS02 uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

2005-01-01

In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

1996-09-01

zone concentration. Models considering faster net downward flow in the upper part of the root zone predict a more rapid decline in root zone concentration than models that assume a constant infiltration throughout the soil column. A sensitivity analysis performed on two of the models shows that the important parameters are the effective precipitation, the root water uptake and the soil K{sub d}-values. For the advection-dispersion model, the dispersion length is also important for the maximum flux to the groundwater. The amount of dispersion in radionuclide transport is of importance for the release to groundwater. For the box models, an inherent dispersion is obtained by the assumption of instantaneous mixing in the boxes. The degree of dispersion in the calculation will be a function of the size of the boxes. It is therefore important that division of the soil column is made with care in order to obtain the intended values. For many models the uncertainty calculations give very skewed distributions for the flux to the groundwater. In some cases the mean of the stochastic calculation can be several orders of magnitude higher than the value from the deterministic calculations. In relation to the objectives set up for this study it can be concluded that: The analysis of the relationship between uncertainty and model complexity proved to be a difficult task. For the studied scenario, the uncertainty in the model predictions does not have a simple relationship with the complexity of the models used. However, a complete analysis could not be performed since uncertainty results were not available for the full range of models and furthermore were not the uncertainty analysis always carried out in a consistent way. The predicted uncertainty associated with the concentration in the root zone does not show very much variation between the modelling approaches. For the predictions of the flux to groundwater, the simple models and the more complex gave very different results for

Mapping of uncertainty relations between continuous and discrete time.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiuchiù, Davide; Pigolotti, Simone

2018-03-01

Lower bounds on fluctuations of thermodynamic currents depend on the nature of time, discrete or continuous. To understand the physical reason, we compare current fluctuations in discrete-time Markov chains and continuous-time master equations. We prove that current fluctuations in the master equations are always more likely, due to random timings of transitions. This comparison leads to a mapping of the moments of a current between discrete and continuous time. We exploit this mapping to obtain uncertainty bounds. Our results reduce the quests for uncertainty bounds in discrete and continuous time to a single problem.

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5: a statistical modeling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jantunen Matti J

2007-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM2.5 are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles. Methods Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties. Results The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties. Conclusion When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure

Uncertainty Quantification and Regional Sensitivity Analysis of Snow-related Parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS)

Science.gov (United States)

Badawy, B.; Fletcher, C. G.

2017-12-01

The parameterization of snow processes in land surface models is an important source of uncertainty in climate simulations. Quantifying the importance of snow-related parameters, and their uncertainties, may therefore lead to better understanding and quantification of uncertainty within integrated earth system models. However, quantifying the uncertainty arising from parameterized snow processes is challenging due to the high-dimensional parameter space, poor observational constraints, and parameter interaction. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of the land simulation to uncertainty in snow microphysical parameters in the Canadian LAnd Surface Scheme (CLASS) using an uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach. A set of training cases (n=400) from CLASS is used to sample each parameter across its full range of empirical uncertainty, as determined from available observations and expert elicitation. A statistical learning model using support vector regression (SVR) is then constructed from the training data (CLASS output variables) to efficiently emulate the dynamical CLASS simulations over a much larger (n=220) set of cases. This approach is used to constrain the plausible range for each parameter using a skill score, and to identify the parameters with largest influence on the land simulation in CLASS at global and regional scales, using a random forest (RF) permutation importance algorithm. Preliminary sensitivity tests indicate that snow albedo refreshment threshold and the limiting snow depth, below which bare patches begin to appear, have the highest impact on snow output variables. The results also show a considerable reduction of the plausible ranges of the parameters values and hence reducing their uncertainty ranges, which can lead to a significant reduction of the model uncertainty. The implementation and results of this study will be presented and discussed in details.

New entropic uncertainty relations and tests of PMD-SQS-optimal limits in pion-nucleus scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.

2002-01-01

In this paper we define a new kind of quantum entropy, namely, the nonextensivity conjugated entropy S Jθ (p,q) bar.Then we prove the optimal nonextensivity conjugated entropic uncertainty relations (ONC-EUR) as well as optimal nonextensivity conjugated entropic uncertainty bands (ONC E UB). The results of the first experimental test of ONC-EUB in the pion-nucleus scattering, obtained by using 49-sets of experimental phase shift analysis, are presented. So, strong evidences for the saturation of the PMD-SQS-optimum limit are obtained with high accuracy (confidence level > 99%) for the nonextensivities: 1/2 ≤ p ≤ 2/3 and q = p/(2p-1). (authors)

The triconnected abstraction of process models

OpenAIRE

Polyvyanyy, Artem; Smirnov, Sergey; Weske, Mathias

2009-01-01

Contents: Artem Polyvanny, Sergey Smirnow, and Mathias Weske The Triconnected Abstraction of Process Models 1 Introduction 2 Business Process Model Abstraction 3 Preliminaries 4 Triconnected Decomposition 4.1 Basic Approach for Process Component Discovery 4.2 SPQR-Tree Decomposition 4.3 SPQR-Tree Fragments in the Context of Process Models 5 Triconnected Abstraction 5.1 Abstraction Rules 5.2 Abstraction Algorithm 6 Related Work and Conclusions

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

A survey of resilience, burnout, and tolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice registrars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cooke Georga PE

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Burnout and intolerance of uncertainty have been linked to low job satisfaction and lower quality patient care. While resilience is related to these concepts, no study has examined these three concepts in a cohort of doctors. The objective of this study was to measure resilience, burnout, compassion satisfaction, personal meaning in patient care and intolerance of uncertainty in Australian general practice (GP registrars. Methods We conducted a paper-based cross-sectional survey of GP registrars in Australia from June to July 2010, recruited from a newsletter item or registrar education events. Survey measures included the Resilience Scale-14, a single-item scale for burnout, Professional Quality of Life (ProQOL scale, Personal Meaning in Patient Care scale, Intolerance of Uncertainty-12 scale, and Physician Response to Uncertainty scale. Results 128 GP registrars responded (response rate 90%. Fourteen percent of registrars were found to be at risk of burnout using the single-item scale for burnout, but none met the criteria for burnout using the ProQOL scale. Secondary traumatic stress, general intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety due to clinical uncertainty and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients were associated with being at higher risk of burnout, but sex, age, practice location, training duration, years since graduation, and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to physicians were not. Only ten percent of registrars had high resilience scores. Resilience was positively associated with compassion satisfaction and personal meaning in patient care. Resilience was negatively associated with burnout, secondary traumatic stress, inhibitory anxiety, general intolerance to uncertainty, concern about bad outcomes and reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. Conclusions GP registrars in this survey showed a lower level of burnout than in other recent surveys of the broader junior doctor population in both Australia

Adaptive relative pose control of spacecraft with model couplings and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Liang; Zheng, Zewei

2018-02-01

The spacecraft pose tracking control problem for an uncertain pursuer approaching to a space target is researched in this paper. After modeling the nonlinearly coupled dynamics for relative translational and rotational motions between two spacecraft, position tracking and attitude synchronization controllers are developed independently by using a robust adaptive control approach. The unknown kinematic couplings, parametric uncertainties, and bounded external disturbances are handled with adaptive updating laws. It is proved via Lyapunov method that the pose tracking errors converge to zero asymptotically. Spacecraft close-range rendezvous and proximity operations are introduced as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control approach.

Making Sense of Abstract Algebra: Exploring Secondary Teachers' Understandings of Inverse Functions in Relation to Its Group Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Wasserman, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

This article draws on semi-structured, task-based interviews to explore secondary teachers' (N = 7) understandings of inverse functions in relation to abstract algebra. In particular, a concept map task is used to understand the degree to which participants, having recently taken an abstract algebra course, situated inverse functions within its…

Interactions between perceived uncertainty types in service dyads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreye, Melanie

2018-01-01

to avoid business failure. A conceptual framework of four uncertainty types is investigated: environmental, technological, organisational, and relational uncertainty. We present insights from four empirical cases of service dyads collected via multiple sources of evidence including 54 semi-structured...... interviews, observations, and secondary data. The cases show seven interaction paths with direct knock-on effects between two uncertainty types and indirect knock-on effects between three or four uncertainty types. The findings suggest a causal chain from environmental, technological, organisational......, to relational uncertainty. This research contributes to the servitization literature by (i) con-firming the existence of uncertainty types, (ii) providing an in-depth characterisation of technological uncertainty, and (iii) showing the interaction paths between four uncertainty types in the form of a causal...

Physical and Model Uncertainty for Fatigue Design of Composite Material

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

The main aim of the present report is to establish stochastic models for the uncertainties related to fatigue design of composite materials. The uncertainties considered are the physical uncertainty related to the static and fatigue strength and the model uncertainty related to Miners rule...

Uncertainty principle for angular position and angular momentum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franke-Arnold, Sonja; Barnett, Stephen M; Yao, Eric; Leach, Jonathan; Courtial, Johannes; Padgett, Miles

2004-01-01

The uncertainty principle places fundamental limits on the accuracy with which we are able to measure the values of different physical quantities (Heisenberg 1949 The Physical Principles of the Quantum Theory (New York: Dover); Robertson 1929 Phys. Rev. 34 127). This has profound effects not only on the microscopic but also on the macroscopic level of physical systems. The most familiar form of the uncertainty principle relates the uncertainties in position and linear momentum. Other manifestations include those relating uncertainty in energy to uncertainty in time duration, phase of an electromagnetic field to photon number and angular position to angular momentum (Vaccaro and Pegg 1990 J. Mod. Opt. 37 17; Barnett and Pegg 1990 Phys. Rev. A 41 3427). In this paper, we report the first observation of the last of these uncertainty relations and derive the associated states that satisfy the equality in the uncertainty relation. We confirm the form of these states by detailed measurement of the angular momentum of a light beam after passage through an appropriate angular aperture. The angular uncertainty principle applies to all physical systems and is particularly important for systems with cylindrical symmetry

Uncertainty in prostate cancer. Ethnic and family patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Germino, B B; Mishel, M H; Belyea, M; Harris, L; Ware, A; Mohler, J

1998-01-01

Prostate cancer occurs 37% more often in African-American men than in white men. Patients and their family care providers (FCPs) may have different experiences of cancer and its treatment. This report addresses two questions: 1) What is the relationship of uncertainty to family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and spiritual factors? and 2) Are these patterns of relationship similar for patients and their family care givers and for whites and African-Americans? A sample of white and African-American men and their family care givers (N = 403) was drawn from an ongoing study, testing the efficacy of an uncertainty management intervention with men with stage B prostate cancer. Data were collected at study entry, either 1 week after post-surgical catheter removal or at the beginning of primary radiation treatment. Measures of uncertainty, adult role behavior, problem solving, social support, importance of God in one's life, family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and perceptions of health and illness met standard criteria for internal consistency. Analyses of baseline data using Pearson's product moment correlations were conducted to examine the relationships of person, disease, and contextual factors to uncertainty. For family coping, uncertainty was significantly and positively related to two domains in white family care providers only. In African-American and white family care providers, the more uncertainty experienced, the less positive they felt about treatment. Uncertainty for all care givers was related inversely to positive feelings about the patient recovering from the illness. For all patients and for white family members, uncertainty was related inversely to the quality of the domestic environment. For everyone, uncertainty was related inversely to psychological distress. Higher levels of uncertainty were related to a poorer social environment for African-American patients and for white family members. For white patients and their

Use of probability tables for propagating uncertainties in neutronics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coste-Delclaux, M.; Diop, C.M.; Lahaye, S.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Moment-based probability table formalism is described. • Representation by probability tables of any uncertainty distribution is established. • Multiband equations for two kinds of uncertainty propagation problems are solved. • Numerical examples are provided and validated against Monte Carlo simulations. - Abstract: Probability tables are a generic tool that allows representing any random variable whose probability density function is known. In the field of nuclear reactor physics, this tool is currently used to represent the variation of cross-sections versus energy (neutron transport codes TRIPOLI4®, MCNP, APOLLO2, APOLLO3®, ECCO/ERANOS…). In the present article we show how we can propagate uncertainties, thanks to a probability table representation, through two simple physical problems: an eigenvalue problem (neutron multiplication factor) and a depletion problem.

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Visschers, Vivianne H M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Abstraction Ability in Constructing Relation Within Triangles by The Seventh Grade Students of Junior High School

Science.gov (United States)

Annas, Suwardi; Djadir; Mutmainna Hasma, Sitti

2018-01-01

on is an activity to organize a mathematical concept that has been previously owned into a new mathematical structure. Activites in abstraction are recognizing, organizing and constructing. Recognizing is a process of identifying a mathematical structure that had existed before. Organizing is a process of using structural knowledge to be assembled into a solution of a problem and constructing is a process of organizing the characteristics of the object into a new structure that does not exist. In abstraction process, the students use attributes to address the object, including routine attribute, nonroutine attributes, and meaningless attributes. This research applied descriptive qualitative research which aimed to describe the abstraction ability of students from high, moderate, and low groups to construct a relation within triangle. In collecting the data, this research used students’ pre-ability math test, abstraction test, and guided interview. The sampling technique in this research was based on the students’ scores in pre-ability math test, which were divided into three groups. Two students from each group were opted as the subjects of this research. Questions of the test are based on the indicators of steps in abstraction activity. Thus, based on the data gained in this research, researcher determined the tendency of attributes used in each abstraction activity. The result of this research revealed that students from high, moderate and low groups were prone to use routine attributes in recognizing triangles. In organizing the characteristics within triangles, high group tended to organize the triangle correctly, while the moderate and low groups tended to organize the triangle incorrectly. In constructing relation within triangles, students in high, moderate and low groups construct it incompletely.

Uncertainties in the simulation of groundwater recharge at different scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Bogena

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Digital spatial data always imply some kind of uncertainty. The source of this uncertainty can be found in their compilation as well as the conceptual design that causes a more or less exact abstraction of the real world, depending on the scale under consideration. Within the framework of hydrological modelling, in which numerous data sets from diverse sources of uneven quality are combined, the various uncertainties are accumulated. In this study, the GROWA model is taken as an example to examine the effects of different types of uncertainties on the calculated groundwater recharge. Distributed input errors are determined for the parameters' slope and aspect using a Monte Carlo approach. Landcover classification uncertainties are analysed by using the conditional probabilities of a remote sensing classification procedure. The uncertainties of data ensembles at different scales and study areas are discussed. The present uncertainty analysis showed that the Gaussian error propagation method is a useful technique for analysing the influence of input data on the simulated groundwater recharge. The uncertainties involved in the land use classification procedure and the digital elevation model can be significant in some parts of the study area. However, for the specific model used in this study it was shown that the precipitation uncertainties have the greatest impact on the total groundwater recharge error.

Probabilistic distributions of pin gaps within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to pin gap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakai, K.; Hishida, H.

1978-01-01

Probabilistic fuel pin gap distributions within a wire-spaced fuel subassembly and sensitivities of the related uncertainties to fuel pin gaps are discussed. The analyses consist mainly of expressing a local fuel pin gap in terms of sensitivity functions of the related uncertainties and calculating the corresponding probabilistic distribution through taking all the possible combinations of the distribution of uncertainties. The results of illustrative calculations show that with the reliability level of 0.9987, the maximum deviation of the pin gap at the cladding hot spot of a center fuel subassembly is 8.05% from its nominal value and the corresponding probabilistic pin gap distribution is shifted to the narrower side due to the external confinement of a pin bundle with a wrapper tube. (Auth.)

From a particle in a box to the uncertainty relation in a quantum dot and to reflecting walls for relativistic fermions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Hashimi, M.H.; Wiese, U.-J.

2012-01-01

We consider a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions of the Hamiltonian for a particle confined to a finite interval with perfectly reflecting boundary conditions. In some cases, one obtains negative energy states which seem to violate the Heisenberg uncertainty relation. We use this as a motivation to derive a generalized uncertainty relation valid for an arbitrarily shaped quantum dot with general perfectly reflecting walls in d dimensions. In addition, a general uncertainty relation for non-Hermitian operators is derived and applied to the non-Hermitian momentum operator in a quantum dot. We also consider minimal uncertainty wave packets in this situation, and we prove that the spectrum depends monotonically on the self-adjoint extension parameter. In addition, we construct the most general boundary conditions for semiconductor heterostructures such as quantum dots, quantum wires, and quantum wells, which are characterized by a 4-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions. Finally, we consider perfectly reflecting boundary conditions for relativistic fermions confined to a finite volume or localized on a domain wall, which are characterized by a 1-parameter family of self-adjoint extensions in the (1+1)-d and (2+1)-d cases, and by a 4-parameter family in the (3+1)-d and (4+1)-d cases. - Highlights: ► Finite volume Heisenberg uncertainty relation. ► General self-adjoint extensions for relativistic fermions. ► New prospective for the problem of particle in a box.

One Approach to the Fire PSA Uncertainty Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

2002-01-01

Experienced practical events and findings from the number of fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies show that fire has high relative importance for nuclear power plant safety. Fire PSA is a very challenging phenomenon and a number of issues are still in the area of research and development. This has a major impact on the conservatism of fire PSA findings. One way to reduce the level of conservatism is to conduct uncertainty analysis. At the top-level, uncertainty of the fire PSA can be separated in to three segments. The first segment is related to fire initiating events frequencies. The second uncertainty segment is connected to the uncertainty of fire damage. Finally, there is uncertainty related to the PSA model, which propagates this fire-initiated damage to the core damage or other analyzed risk. This paper discusses all three segments of uncertainty. Some recent experience with fire PSA study uncertainty analysis, usage of fire analysis code COMPBRN IIIe, and uncertainty evaluation importance to the final result is presented.(author)

Evaluating prediction uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKay, M.D.

1995-03-01

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

Completeness of Lyapunov Abstraction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wisniewski, Rafal; Sloth, Christoffer

2013-01-01

the vector field, which allows the generation of a complete abstraction. To compute the functions that define the subdivision of the state space in an algorithm, we formulate a sum of squares optimization problem. This optimization problem finds the best subdivisioning functions, with respect to the ability......This paper addresses the generation of complete abstractions of polynomial dynamical systems by timed automata. For the proposed abstraction, the state space is divided into cells by sublevel sets of functions. We identify a relation between these functions and their directional derivatives along...

Tolerance for uncertainty in elderly people

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

KHRYSTYNA KACHMARYK

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of the study. The aim of the paper is a comparison of tolerance to uncertainty in two groups of elderly: the students of the University of the Third Age (UTA and older people who are not enrolled but help to educate grandchildren. A relation to uncertainty was shown to influence on decision making strategy of elderly that indicates on importance of the researches. Methods. To obtain the objectives of the paper the following methods were used: 1 Personal change readiness survey (PCRS adapted by Nickolay Bazhanov and Galina Bardiyer; 2 Tolerance Ambiguity Scale (TAS adapted by Galina Soldatova; 3 Freiburg personality inventory (FPI and 4 The questionnaire of self-relation by Vladimir Stolin and Sergej Panteleev. 40 socially involved elderly people were investigated according the above methods, 20 from UTA and 20 who are not studied and served as control group. Results. It was shown that relations of tolerance to uncertainty in the study group of students of the University of the Third Age substantially differ from relations of tolerance to uncertainty in group of older people who do not learn. The majority of students of the University of the Third Age have an inherent low tolerance for uncertainty, which is associated with an increase in expression personality traits and characteristics in self-relation. The group of the elderly who are not enrolled increasingly shows tolerance of uncertainty, focusing on the social and trusting relationship to meet the needs of communication, and the ability to manage their own emotions and desires than a group of Third Age university students. Conclusions. The results of experimental research of the third age university student’s peculiarities of the tolerance to uncertainty were outlined. It was found that decision making in the ambiguity situations concerning social interaction is well developed in elderly who do not study. The students of the University of Third Age have greater needs in

Estimation of the uncertainties considered in NPP PSA level 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalchev, B.; Hristova, R.

2005-01-01

The main approaches of the uncertainties analysis are presented. The sources of uncertainties which should be considered in PSA level 2 for WWER reactor such as: uncertainties propagated from level 1 PSA; uncertainties in input parameters; uncertainties related to the modelling of physical phenomena during the accident progression and uncertainties related to the estimation of source terms are defined. The methods for estimation of the uncertainties are also discussed in this paper

Advance Organizers: Concret Versus Abstract.

Science.gov (United States)

Corkill, Alice J.; And Others

1988-01-01

Two experiments examined the relative effects of concrete and abstract advance organizers on students' memory for subsequent prose. Results of the experiments are discussed in terms of the memorability, familiarity, and visualizability of concrete and abstract verbal materials. (JD)

Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ronen, Y.

1983-01-01

Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

2012-01-01

Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also

ACCENT-BIAFLUX workshop 2005, trace gas and aerosol flux measurement and techniques. Abstract book

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Werner, A.; Soerensen, L.L. (eds.)

2005-04-01

The woorkshop trace gas and aerosol flux measurement techniques in the second meeting within the Biosphere Atmosphere Exchange of Pollutions (BIAFLUX) group in the EU-network project Atmospheric Composition Change (ACCENT). The goal of the workshop is to obtain an overview of techniques for measurements of gas and aerosol fluxes and to gather the knowledge of uncertainties in flux measurements and calculations. The workshop is funded by ACCENT. The abstract book presents abstracts of 21 oral presentations and 26 poster presentations. (LN)

Measurement uncertainty and probability

CERN Document Server

Willink, Robin

2013-01-01

A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a

Frontopolar cortex mediates abstract integration in analogy.

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Adam E; Fugelsang, Jonathan A; Kraemer, David J M; Shamosh, Noah A; Dunbar, Kevin N

2006-06-22

Integration of abstractly similar relations during analogical reasoning was investigated using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Activation elicited by an analogical reasoning task that required both complex working memory and integration of abstractly similar relations was compared to activation elicited by a non-analogical task that required complex working memory in the absence of abstract relational integration. A left-sided region of the frontal pole of the brain (BA 9/10) was selectively active for the abstract relational integration component of analogical reasoning. Analogical reasoning also engaged a left-sided network of parieto-frontal regions. Activity in this network during analogical reasoning is hypothesized to reflect categorical alignment of individual component terms that make up analogies. This parieto-frontal network was also engaged by the complex control task, which involved explicit categorization, but not by a simpler control task, which did not involve categorization. We hypothesize that frontopolar cortex mediates abstract relational integration in complex reasoning while parieto-frontal regions mediate working memory processes, including manipulation of terms for the purpose of categorical alignment, that facilitate this integration.

Large-uncertainty intelligent states for angular momentum and angle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goette, Joerg B; Zambrini, Roberta; Franke-Arnold, Sonja; Barnett, Stephen M

2005-01-01

The equality in the uncertainty principle for linear momentum and position is obtained for states which also minimize the uncertainty product. However, in the uncertainty relation for angular momentum and angular position both sides of the inequality are state dependent and therefore the intelligent states, which satisfy the equality, do not necessarily give a minimum for the uncertainty product. In this paper, we highlight the difference between intelligent states and minimum uncertainty states by investigating a class of intelligent states which obey the equality in the angular uncertainty relation while having an arbitrarily large uncertainty product. To develop an understanding for the uncertainties of angle and angular momentum for the large-uncertainty intelligent states we compare exact solutions with analytical approximations in two limiting cases

Data Abstraction in GLISP.

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, Gordon S., Jr.

GLISP is a high-level computer language (based on Lisp and including Lisp as a sublanguage) which is compiled into Lisp. GLISP programs are compiled relative to a knowledge base of object descriptions, a form of abstract datatypes. A primary goal of the use of abstract datatypes in GLISP is to allow program code to be written in terms of objects,…

The early emergence and puzzling decline of relational reasoning: Effects of knowledge and search on inferring abstract concepts.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Caren M; Bridgers, Sophie; Gopnik, Alison

2016-11-01

We explore the developmental trajectory and underlying mechanisms of abstract relational reasoning. We describe a surprising developmental pattern: Younger learners are better than older ones at inferring abstract causal relations. Walker and Gopnik (2014) demonstrated that toddlers are able to infer that an effect was caused by a relation between two objects (whether they are the same or different), rather than by individual kinds of objects. While these findings are consistent with evidence that infants recognize same-different relations, they contrast with a large literature suggesting that older children tend to have difficulty inferring these relations. Why might this be? In Experiment 1a, we demonstrate that while younger children (18-30-month-olds) have no difficulty learning these relational concepts, older children (36-48-month-olds) fail to draw this abstract inference. Experiment 1b replicates the finding with 18-30-month-olds using a more demanding intervention task. Experiment 2 tests whether this difference in performance might be because older children have developed the general hypothesis that individual kinds of objects are causal - the high initial probability of this alternative hypothesis might override the data that favors the relational hypothesis. Providing additional information falsifying the alternative hypothesis improves older children's performance. Finally, Experiment 3 demonstrates that prompting for explanations during learning also improves performance, even without any additional information. These findings are discussed in light of recent computational and algorithmic theories of learning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and minimum detectable concentrations using relative, absolute and K*0-IAEA standardization for the INAA laboratory of the ETRR-2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalil, M. Y.

2006-01-01

Full text: The Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) Laboratory of Egypt Second Training and Research Reactor (ETRR-2) is increasingly requested to perform multi-element analysis to large number of samples from different origins. The INAA laboratory has to demonstrate competence by conforming to appropriate internationally and nationally accepted standards. The objective of this work is to determine the uncertainty budget and sensitivity of the INAA laboratory measurements. Concentrations of 9 elements; Mn, Na, K, Ca, Co, Cr, Fe, Rb, and Cs, were measured against a certified test sample. Relative, absolute, and Ko-IAEA standardization methods were employed and results compared. The flux was monitored using cadmium covered gold method, and multifoil (gold, nickel and zirconium) method. The combined and expanded uncertainties were estimated. Uncertainty of concentrations ranged between 2-21% depending on the standardization method used. The relative method, giving the lowest uncertainty, produced uncertainty budget between 2 and 11%. The minimum detectable concentration was the lowest for Cs ranging between 0.36 and 0.59 ppb and the highest being for K in the range of 0.32 to 8.64 ppm

EDITORIAL: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations

Science.gov (United States)

Jauregue-Renaud, Rocio; Kim, Young S.; Man'ko, Margarita A.; Moya-Cessa, Hector

2004-06-01

This special issue of Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics is composed mainly of extended versions of talks and papers presented at the Eighth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations held in Puebla, Mexico on 9-13 June 2003. The Conference was hosted by Instituto de Astrofísica, Óptica y Electrónica, and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. This series of meetings began at the University of Maryland, College Park, USA, in March 1991. The second and third workshops were organized by the Lebedev Physical Institute in Moscow, Russia, in 1992 and by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, USA, in 1993, respectively. Afterwards, it was decided that the workshop series should be held every two years. Thus the fourth meeting took place at the University of Shanxi in China and was supported by the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP). The next three meetings in 1997, 1999 and 2001 were held in Lake Balatonfüred, Hungary, in Naples, Italy, and in Boston, USA, respectively. All of them were sponsored by IUPAP. The ninth workshop will take place in Besançon, France, in 2005. The conference has now become one of the major international meetings on quantum optics and the foundations of quantum mechanics, where most of the active research groups throughout the world present their new results. Accordingly this conference has been able to align itself to the current trend in quantum optics and quantum mechanics. The Puebla meeting covered most extensively the following areas: quantum measurements, quantum computing and information theory, trapped atoms and degenerate gases, and the generation and characterization of quantum states of light. The meeting also covered squeeze-like transformations in areas other than quantum optics, such as atomic physics, nuclear physics, statistical physics and relativity, as well as optical devices. There were many new participants at this meeting, particularly

On the EU approach for DEMO architecture exploration and dealing with uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, M., E-mail: matti.coleman@euro-fusion.org [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Maviglia, F.; Bachmann, C. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Anthony, J. [CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Federici, G. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Shannon, M. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Wenninger, R. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany)

2016-11-01

Highlights: • The issue of epistemic uncertainties in the DEMO design basis is described. • An approach to tackle uncertainty by investigating plant architectures is proposed. • The first wall heat load uncertainty is addressed following the proposed approach. - Abstract: One of the difficulties inherent in designing a future fusion reactor is dealing with uncertainty. As the major step between ITER and the commercial exploitation of nuclear fusion energy, DEMO will have to address many challenges – the natures of which are still not fully known. Unlike fission reactors, fusion reactors suffer from the intrinsic complexity of the tokamak (numerous interdependent system parameters) and from the dependence of plasma physics on scale – prohibiting design exploration founded on incremental progression and small-scale experimentation. For DEMO, this means that significant technical uncertainties will exist for some time to come, and a systems engineering design exploration approach must be developed to explore the reactor architecture when faced with these uncertainties. Important uncertainties in the context of fusion reactor design are discussed and a strategy for dealing with these is presented, treating the uncertainty in the first wall loads as an example.

Indico CONFERENCE: Define the Call for Abstracts

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; Ferreira, Pedro

2017-01-01

In this tutorial, you will learn how to define and open a call for abstracts. When defining a call for abstracts, you will be able to define settings related to the type of questions asked during a review of an abstract, select the users who will review the abstracts, decide when to open the call for abstracts, and more.

Abstract Datatypes in PVS

Science.gov (United States)

Owre, Sam; Shankar, Natarajan

1997-01-01

PVS (Prototype Verification System) is a general-purpose environment for developing specifications and proofs. This document deals primarily with the abstract datatype mechanism in PVS which generates theories containing axioms and definitions for a class of recursive datatypes. The concepts underlying the abstract datatype mechanism are illustrated using ordered binary trees as an example. Binary trees are described by a PVS abstract datatype that is parametric in its value type. The type of ordered binary trees is then presented as a subtype of binary trees where the ordering relation is also taken as a parameter. We define the operations of inserting an element into, and searching for an element in an ordered binary tree; the bulk of the report is devoted to PVS proofs of some useful properties of these operations. These proofs illustrate various approaches to proving properties of abstract datatype operations. They also describe the built-in capabilities of the PVS proof checker for simplifying abstract datatype expressions.

Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Nilsson

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.

Some illustrative examples of model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bier, V.M.

1994-01-01

In this paper, we first discuss the view of model uncertainty proposed by Apostolakis. We then present several illustrative examples related to model uncertainty, some of which are not well handled by this formalism. Thus, Apostolakis' approach seems to be well suited to describing some types of model uncertainty, but not all. Since a comprehensive approach for characterizing and quantifying model uncertainty is not yet available, it is hoped that the examples presented here will service as a springboard for further discussion

Uncertainty representation of grey numbers and grey sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yingjie; Liu, Sifeng; John, Robert

2014-09-01

In the literature, there is a presumption that a grey set and an interval-valued fuzzy set are equivalent. This presumption ignores the existence of discrete components in a grey number. In this paper, new measurements of uncertainties of grey numbers and grey sets, consisting of both absolute and relative uncertainties, are defined to give a comprehensive representation of uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. Some simple examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed uncertainty measurement can give an effective representation of both absolute and relative uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. The relationships between grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets are also analyzed from the point of view of the proposed uncertainty representation. The analysis demonstrates that grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets provide different but overlapping models for uncertainty representation in sets.

Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D

2010-02-01

The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.

Advances in Financial Risk Management and Economic Policy Uncertainty: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Financial risk management is difficult at the best of times, but especially so in the presence of economic uncertainty and financial crises. The purpose of this special issue on “Advances in Financial Risk Management and Economic Policy Uncertainty” is to highlight

Kinetics of Hydrogen Abstraction and Addition Reactions of 3-Hexene by ȮH Radicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Feiyu; Deng, Fuquan; Pan, Youshun; Zhang, Yingjia; Tang, Chenglong; Huang, Zuohua

2017-03-09

Rate coefficients of H atom abstraction and H atom addition reactions of 3-hexene by the hydroxyl radicals were determined using both conventional transition-state theory and canonical variational transition-state theory, with the potential energy surface (PES) evaluated at the CCSD(T)/CBS//BHandHLYP/6-311G(d,p) level and quantum mechanical effect corrected by the compounded methods including one-dimensional Wigner method, multidimensional zero-curvature tunneling method, and small-curvature tunneling method. Results reveal that accounting for approximate 70% of the overall H atom abstractions occur in the allylic site via both direct and indirect channels. The indirect channel containing two van der Waals prereactive complexes exhibits two times larger rate coefficient relative to the direct one. The OH addition reaction also contains two van der Waals complexes, and its submerged barrier results in a negative temperature coefficient behavior at low temperatures. In contrast, The OH addition pathway dominates only at temperatures below 450 K whereas the H atom abstraction reactions dominate overwhelmingly at temperature over 1000 K. All of the rate coefficients calculated with an uncertainty of a factor of 5 were fitted in a quasi-Arrhenius formula. Analyses on the PES, minimum reaction path and activation free Gibbs energy were also performed in this study.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for UO2 and MOX fueled PWR cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foad, Basma; Takeda, Toshikazu

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A method for calculating sensitivity coefficients has been improved. • The IR approximation was used in order to get accurate results. • Sensitivities and uncertainties are calculated using the improved method. • The method is applied for UO 2 and MOX fueled PWR cells. • The verification was performed by comparing our results with MCNP6 and TSUNAMI-1D. - Abstract: This paper discusses the improvement of a method for calculating sensitivity coefficients of neutronics parameters relative to infinite dilution cross-sections because the conventional method neglects resonance self-shielding effect. In this study, the self-shielding effect is taken into account by using the intermediate resonance approximation in order to get accurate results in both high and low energy groups. The improved method is applied to calculate sensitivity coefficients and uncertainties of eigenvalue responses for UO 2 and MOX (ThO 2 –UO 2 and PuO 2 –UO 2 ) fueled pressurized water reactor cells. The verification of the improved method was performed by comparing the sensitivities with MCNP6 and TSUNAMI-1D. For uncertainty, calculation comparisons were done with TSUNAMI-1D, and we demonstrate that the differences are caused by the use of different covariance matrices

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monte, L.

1990-01-01

In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

2001-01-01

A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

Characterisation of a reference site for quantifying uncertainties related to soil sampling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbizzi, Sabrina; Zorzi, Paolo de; Belli, Maria; Pati, Alessandra; Sansone, Umberto; Stellato, Luisa; Barbina, Maria; Deluisa, Andrea; Menegon, Sandro; Coletti, Valter

2004-01-01

An integrated approach to quality assurance in soil sampling remains to be accomplished. - The paper reports a methodology adopted to face problems related to quality assurance in soil sampling. The SOILSAMP project, funded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Italy (APAT), is aimed at (i) establishing protocols for soil sampling in different environments; (ii) assessing uncertainties associated with different soil sampling methods in order to select the 'fit-for-purpose' method; (iii) qualifying, in term of trace elements spatial variability, a reference site for national and international inter-comparison exercises. Preliminary results and considerations are illustrated

Estimate of the uncertainties in the relative risk of secondary malignant neoplasms following proton therapy and intensity-modulated photon therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontenot, Jonas D; Bloch, Charles; Followill, David; Titt, Uwe; Newhauser, Wayne D

2010-01-01

Theoretical calculations have shown that proton therapy can reduce the incidence of radiation-induced secondary malignant neoplasms (SMN) compared with photon therapy for patients with prostate cancer. However, the uncertainties associated with calculations of SMN risk had not been assessed. The objective of this study was to quantify the uncertainties in projected risks of secondary cancer following contemporary proton and photon radiotherapies for prostate cancer. We performed a rigorous propagation of errors and several sensitivity tests to estimate the uncertainty in the ratio of relative risk (RRR) due to the largest contributors to the uncertainty: the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the dose-response model for radiation carcinogenesis and interpatient variations in absorbed dose. The interval of values for the radiation weighting factor for neutrons and the dose-response model were derived from the literature, while interpatient variations in absorbed dose were taken from actual patient data. The influence of each parameter on a baseline RRR value was quantified. Our analysis revealed that the calculated RRR was insensitive to the largest contributors to the uncertainty. Uncertainties in the radiation weighting factor for neutrons, the shape of the dose-risk model and interpatient variations in therapeutic and stray doses introduced a total uncertainty of 33% to the baseline RRR calculation.

Propagation of interval and probabilistic uncertainty in cyberinfrastructure-related data processing and data fusion

CERN Document Server

Servin, Christian

2015-01-01

On various examples ranging from geosciences to environmental sciences, this book explains how to generate an adequate description of uncertainty, how to justify semiheuristic algorithms for processing uncertainty, and how to make these algorithms more computationally efficient. It explains in what sense the existing approach to uncertainty as a combination of random and systematic components is only an approximation, presents a more adequate three-component model with an additional periodic error component, and explains how uncertainty propagation techniques can be extended to this model. The book provides a justification for a practically efficient heuristic technique (based on fuzzy decision-making). It explains how the computational complexity of uncertainty processing can be reduced. The book also shows how to take into account that in real life, the information about uncertainty is often only partially known, and, on several practical examples, explains how to extract the missing information about uncer...

Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Amanda S.

2013-01-01

Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…

An examination of the relationships among uncertainty, appraisal, and information-seeking behavior proposed in uncertainty management theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Rains, Stephen A; Tukachinsky, Riva

2015-01-01

Uncertainty management theory (UMT; Brashers, 2001, 2007) is rooted in the assumption that, as opposed to being inherently negative, health-related uncertainty is appraised for its meaning. Appraisals influence subsequent behaviors intended to manage uncertainty, such as information seeking. This study explores the connections among uncertainty, appraisal, and information-seeking behavior proposed in UMT. A laboratory study was conducted in which participants (N = 157) were primed to feel and desire more or less uncertainty about skin cancer and were given the opportunity to search for skin cancer information using the World Wide Web. The results show that desired uncertainty level predicted appraisal intensity, and appraisal intensity predicted information-seeking depth-although the latter relationship was in the opposite direction of what was expected.

Model Uncertainty for Bilinear Hysteretic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

1984-01-01

. The statistical uncertainty -due to lack of information can e.g. be taken into account by describing the variables by predictive density functions, Veneziano [2). In general, model uncertainty is the uncertainty connected with mathematical modelling of the physical reality. When structural reliability analysis...... is related to the concept of a failure surface (or limit state surface) in the n-dimensional basic variable space then model uncertainty is at least due to the neglected variables, the modelling of the failure surface and the computational technique used. A more precise definition is given in section 2...

Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Vlachos, Pavlos P; Charonko, John J

2017-01-01

Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric

Expanding Uncertainty Principle to Certainty-Uncertainty Principles with Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fu Yuhua

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The most famous contribution of Heisenberg is uncertainty principle. But the original uncertainty principle is improper. Considering all the possible situations (including the case that people can create laws and applying Neutrosophy and Quad-stage Method, this paper presents "certainty-uncertainty principles" with general form and variable dimension fractal form. According to the classification of Neutrosophy, "certainty-uncertainty principles" can be divided into three principles in different conditions: "certainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously; "uncertainty principle", namely a particle’s position and momentum cannot be known simultaneously; and neutral (fuzzy "indeterminacy principle", namely whether or not a particle’s position and momentum can be known simultaneously is undetermined. The special cases of "certain ty-uncertainty principles" include the original uncertainty principle and Ozawa inequality. In addition, in accordance with the original uncertainty principle, discussing high-speed particle’s speed and track with Newton mechanics is unreasonable; but according to "certaintyuncertainty principles", Newton mechanics can be used to discuss the problem of gravitational defection of a photon orbit around the Sun (it gives the same result of deflection angle as given by general relativity. Finally, for the reason that in physics the principles, laws and the like that are regardless of the principle (law of conservation of energy may be invalid; therefore "certaintyuncertainty principles" should be restricted (or constrained by principle (law of conservation of energy, and thus it can satisfy the principle (law of conservation of energy.

How Environmental Uncertainty Moderates the Effect of Relative Advantage and Perceived Credibility on the Adoption of Mobile Health Services by Chinese Organizations in the Big Data Era

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing Chen

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization’s adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization’s intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization’s intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization’s adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.

How Environmental Uncertainty Moderates the Effect of Relative Advantage and Perceived Credibility on the Adoption of Mobile Health Services by Chinese Organizations in the Big Data Era.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Zhang, Xing

2016-01-01

Despite the importance of adoption of mobile health services by an organization on the diffusion of mobile technology in the big data era, it has received minimal attention in literature. This study investigates how relative advantage and perceived credibility affect an organization's adoption of mobile health services, as well as how environmental uncertainty changes the relationship of relative advantage and perceived credibility with adoption. A research model that integrates relative advantage, perceived credibility, environmental uncertainty, and an organization's intention to use mobile health service is developed. Quantitative data are collected from senior managers and information systems managers in 320 Chinese healthcare organizations. The empirical findings show that while relative advantage and perceived credibility both have positive effects on an organization's intention to use mobile health services, relative advantage plays a more important role than perceived credibility. Moreover, environmental uncertainty positively moderates the effect of relative advantage on an organization's adoption of mobile health services. Thus, mobile health services in environments characterized with high levels of uncertainty are more likely to be adopted because of relative advantage than in environments with low levels of uncertainty.

From Abstract Art to Abstracted Artists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romi Mikulinsky

2016-11-01

Full Text Available What lineage connects early abstract films and machine-generated YouTube videos? Hans Richter’s famous piece Rhythmus 21 is considered to be the first abstract film in the experimental tradition. The Webdriver Torso YouTube channel is composed of hundreds of thousands of machine-generated test patterns designed to check frequency signals on YouTube. This article discusses geometric abstraction vis-à-vis new vision, conceptual art and algorithmic art. It argues that the Webdriver Torso is an artistic marvel indicative of a form we call mathematical abstraction, which is art performed by computers and, quite possibly, for computers.

Assessing the Uncertainty in QUANTEC's Dose–Response Relation of Lung and Spinal Cord With a Bootstrap Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wedenberg, Minna, E-mail: minna.wedenberg@raysearchlabs.com

2013-11-15

Purpose: To apply a statistical bootstrap analysis to assess the uncertainty in the dose–response relation for the endpoints pneumonitis and myelopathy reported in the QUANTEC review. Methods and Materials: The bootstrap method assesses the uncertainty of the estimated population-based dose-response relation due to sample variability, which reflects the uncertainty due to limited numbers of patients in the studies. A large number of bootstrap replicates of the original incidence data were produced by random sampling with replacement. The analysis requires only the dose, the number of patients, and the number of occurrences of the studied endpoint, for each study. Two dose–response models, a Poisson-based model and the Lyman model, were fitted to each bootstrap replicate using maximum likelihood. Results: The bootstrap analysis generates a family of curves representing the range of plausible dose–response relations, and the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals give an estimated upper and lower toxicity risk. The curve families for the 2 dose–response models overlap for doses included in the studies at hand but diverge beyond that, with the Lyman model suggesting a steeper slope. The resulting distributions of the model parameters indicate correlation and non-Gaussian distribution. For both data sets, the likelihood of the observed data was higher for the Lyman model in >90% of the bootstrap replicates. Conclusions: The bootstrap method provides a statistical analysis of the uncertainty in the estimated dose–response relation for myelopathy and pneumonitis. It suggests likely values of model parameter values, their confidence intervals, and how they interrelate for each model. Finally, it can be used to evaluate to what extent data supports one model over another. For both data sets considered here, the Lyman model was preferred over the Poisson-based model.

The small sample uncertainty aspect in relation to bullwhip effect measurement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Erland Hejn

2009-01-01

The bullwhip effect as a concept has been known for almost half a century starting with the Forrester effect. The bullwhip effect is observed in many supply chains, and it is generally accepted as a potential malice. Despite of this fact, the bullwhip effect still seems to be first and foremost...... a conceptual phenomenon. This paper intends primarily to investigate why this might be so and thereby investigate the various aspects, possibilities and obstacles that must be taken into account, when considering the potential practical use and measure of the bullwhip effect in order to actually get the supply...... chain under control. This paper will put special emphasis on the unavoidable small-sample uncertainty aspects relating to the measurement or estimation of the bullwhip effect.  ...

Absolute frequency list of the ν3-band transitions of methane at a relative uncertainty level of 10(-11).

Science.gov (United States)

Okubo, Sho; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Iwakuni, Kana; Inaba, Hajime; Sasada, Hiroyuki

2011-11-21

We determine the absolute frequencies of 56 rotation-vibration transitions of the ν(3) band of CH(4) from 88.2 to 90.5 THz with a typical uncertainty of 2 kHz corresponding to a relative uncertainty of 2.2 × 10(-11) over an average time of a few hundred seconds. Saturated absorption lines are observed using a difference-frequency-generation source and a cavity-enhanced absorption cell, and the transition frequencies are measured with a fiber-laser-based optical frequency comb referenced to a rubidium atomic clock linked to the international atomic time. The determined value of the P(7) F(2)((2)) line is consistent with the International Committee for Weights and Measures recommendation within the uncertainty. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villemereuil Pierre de

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

On Uncertainty and the WTA-WTP Gap

OpenAIRE

Douglas D. Davis; Robert J. Reilly

2012-01-01

We correct an analysis by Isik (2004) regarding the effects of uncertainty on the WTA-WTP gap. Isik presents as his primary result a proposition that the introduction of uncertainty regarding environmental quality improvements causes WTA to increase and WTP to decrease by identical amounts relative to a certainty condition where WTA=WTP. These conclusions are incorrect. In fact, WTP may equal WTA even with uncertainty, and increases in the uncertainty of environmental quality improvements cau...

When abstraction does not increase stereotyping : Preparing for intragroup communication enables abstract construal of stereotype-inconsistent information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Greijdanus, Hedy; Postmes, Tom; Gordijn, Ernestine H.; van Zomeren, Martijn

2014-01-01

Two experiments investigated when perceivers can construe stereotype-inconsistent information abstractly (i.e., interpret observations as generalizable) and whether stereotype-consistency delimits the positive relation between abstract construal level and stereotyping. Participants (N1=104, N2=83)

Total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for LWR pin-cells with improved UNICORN code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Shen, Wei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A new model is established for the total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The NR approximation applied in S&U analysis can be avoided by the new model. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed to PWR pin-cells by the new model. • The effects of the NR approximation for the PWR pin-cells are quantified. - Abstract: In this paper, improvements to the multigroup cross-section perturbation model have been proposed and applied in the self-developed UNICORN code, which is capable of performing the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and the statistical sampling method respectively. The narrow resonance (NR) approximation was applied in the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, implemented in UNICORN. As improvements to the NR approximation to refine the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, an ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation model has been established, in which the actual perturbations are applied to the ultrafine-group cross-section library and the reconstructions of the resonance cross sections are performed by solving the neutron slowing-down equation. The total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis were then applied to the LWR pin-cells, using both the multigroup and the ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation models. The numerical results show that the NR approximation overestimates the relative sensitivity coefficients and the corresponding uncertainty results for the LWR pin-cells, and the effects of the NR approximation are significant for σ_(_n_,_γ_) and σ_(_n_,_e_l_a_s_) of "2"3"8U. Therefore, the effects of the NR approximation applied in the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations of LWR should be taken into account.

Benchmarking and application of the state-of-the-art uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aures, A.; Bostelmann, F.; Hursin, M.; Leray, O.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Application of the uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X. • Propagation of nuclear data uncertainty through PWR pin cell depletion calculation. • Uncertainty quantification of eigenvalue, nuclide densities and Doppler coefficient. • Top contributor to overall output uncertainty by sensitivity analysis. • Comparison with SAMPLER and TSUNAMI of the SCALE code package. - Abstract: This study presents collaborative work performed between GRS and PSI on benchmarking and application of the state-of-the-art uncertainty analysis methods XSUSA and SHARK-X. Applied to a PWR pin cell depletion calculation, both methods propagate input uncertainty from nuclear data to output uncertainty. The uncertainty of the multiplication factors, nuclide densities, and fuel temperature coefficients derived by both methods are compared at various burnup steps. Comparisons of these quantities are furthermore performed with the SAMPLER module of SCALE 6.2. The perturbation theory based TSUNAMI module of both SCALE 6.1 and SCALE 6.2 is additionally applied for comparisons of the reactivity coefficient.

Uncertainty analysis of flexible rotors considering fuzzy parameters and fuzzy-random parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabian Andres Lara-Molina

Full Text Available Abstract The components of flexible rotors are subjected to uncertainties. The main sources of uncertainties include the variation of mechanical properties. This contribution aims at analyzing the dynamics of flexible rotors under uncertain parameters modeled as fuzzy and fuzzy random variables. The uncertainty analysis encompasses the modeling of uncertain parameters and the numerical simulation of the corresponding flexible rotor model by using an approach based on fuzzy dynamic analysis. The numerical simulation is accomplished by mapping the fuzzy parameters of the deterministic flexible rotor model. Thereby, the flexible rotor is modeled by using both the Fuzzy Finite Element Method and the Fuzzy Stochastic Finite Element Method. Numerical simulations illustrate the methodology conveyed in terms of orbits and frequency response functions subject to uncertain parameters.

Entropic uncertainty relation of a two-qutrit Heisenberg spin model in nonuniform magnetic fields and its dynamics under intrinsic decoherence

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zuo-Yuan; Wei, DaXiu; Liu, Jin-Ming

2018-06-01

The precision of measurements for two incompatible observables in a physical system can be improved with the assistance of quantum memory. In this paper, we investigate the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation for a spin-1 Heisenberg model in the presence of external magnetic fields, the systemic quantum entanglement (characterized by the negativity) is analyzed as contrast. Our results show that for the XY spin chain in thermal equilibrium, the entropic uncertainty can be reduced by reinforcing the coupling between the two particles or decreasing the temperature of the environment. At zero-temperature, the strong magnetic field can result in the growth of the entropic uncertainty. Moreover, in the Ising case, the variation trends of the uncertainty are relied on the choices of anisotropic parameters. Taking the influence of intrinsic decoherence into account, we find that the strong coupling accelerates the inflation of the uncertainty over time, whereas the high magnetic field contributes to its reduction during the temporal evolution. Furthermore, we also verify that the evolution behavior of the entropic uncertainty is roughly anti-correlated with that of the entanglement in the whole dynamical process. Our results could offer new insights into quantum precision measurement for the high spin solid-state systems.

Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: Development of group-contribution+ (GC+) models and uncertainty analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent

2012-01-01

The aim of this work is to develop group-3 contribution+ (GC+)method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI)) based 15 property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated...... property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality......, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22...

Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals related to the 11-year solar cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, T.; Kunze, M.; Matthes, K. B.; Langematz, U.; Wahl, S.

2017-12-01

Although state-of-the-art reconstructions based on proxies and (semi-)empirical models converge in terms of total solar irradiance, they still significantly differ in terms of spectral solar irradiance (SSI) with respect to the mean spectral distribution of energy input and temporal variability. This study aims at quantifying uncertainties for the Earth's climate related to the 11-year solar cycle by forcing two chemistry-climate models (CCMs) - CESM1(WACCM) and EMAC - with five different SSI reconstructions (NRLSSI1, NRLSSI2, SATIRE-T, SATIRE-S, CMIP6-SSI) and the reference spectrum RSSV1-ATLAS3, derived from observations. We conduct a unique set of timeslice experiments. External forcings and boundary conditions are fixed and identical for all experiments, except for the solar forcing. The set of analyzed simulations consists of one solar minimum simulation, employing RSSV1-ATLAS3 and five solar maximum experiments. The latter are a result of adding the amplitude of solar cycle 22 according to the five reconstructions to RSSV1-ATLAS3. Our results show that the climate response to the 11y solar cycle is generally robust across CCMs and SSI forcings. However, analyzing the variance of the solar maximum ensemble by means of ANOVA-statistics reveals additional information on the uncertainties of the mean climate signals. The annual mean response agrees very well between the two CCMs for most parts of the lower and middle atmosphere. Only the upper mesosphere is subject to significant differences related to the choice of the model. However, the different SSI forcings lead to significant differences in ozone concentrations, shortwave heating rates, and temperature throughout large parts of the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. Regarding the seasonal evolution of the climate signals, our findings for short wave heating rates, and temperature are similar to the annual means with respect to the relative importance of the choice of the model or the SSI forcing for the

Uncertainty Characterization of Reactor Vessel Fracture Toughness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Fei; Modarres, Mohammad

2002-01-01

To perform fracture mechanics analysis of reactor vessel, fracture toughness (K Ic ) at various temperatures would be necessary. In a best estimate approach, K Ic uncertainties resulting from both lack of sufficient knowledge and randomness in some of the variables of K Ic must be characterized. Although it may be argued that there is only one type of uncertainty, which is lack of perfect knowledge about the subject under study, as a matter of practice K Ic uncertainties can be divided into two types: aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is related to uncertainty that is very difficult to reduce, if not impossible; epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, can be practically reduced. Distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties facilitates decision-making under uncertainty and allows for proper propagation of uncertainties in the computation process. Typically, epistemic uncertainties representing, for example, parameters of a model are sampled (to generate a 'snapshot', single-value of the parameters), but the totality of aleatory uncertainties is carried through the calculation as available. In this paper a description of an approach to account for these two types of uncertainties associated with K Ic has been provided. (authors)

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gervasio, Vivianaluxa [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vienna, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kim, Dong-Sang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kruger, Albert A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2018-02-19

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable WOL was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of IHLW glass when no uncertainties were taken into accound. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). ILAW mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with weaste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MTG. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

Higher-Order Squeezing of Quantum Field and the Generalized Uncertainty Relations in Non-Degenerate Four-Wave Mixing

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xi-Zeng; Su, Bao-Xia

1996-01-01

It is found that the field of the combined mode of the probe wave and the phase-conjugate wave in the process of non-degenerate four-wave mixing exhibits higher-order squeezing to all even orders. And the generalized uncertainty relations in this process are also presented.

Psychological Entropy: A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty-Related Anxiety

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsh, Jacob B.; Mar, Raymond A.; Peterson, Jordan B.

2012-01-01

Entropy, a concept derived from thermodynamics and information theory, describes the amount of uncertainty and disorder within a system. Self-organizing systems engage in a continual dialogue with the environment and must adapt themselves to changing circumstances to keep internal entropy at a manageable level. We propose the entropy model of…

Fuzzy uncertainty modeling applied to AP1000 nuclear power plant LOCA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira Guimaraes, Antonio Cesar; Franklin Lapa, Celso Marcelo; Lamego Simoes Filho, Francisco Fernando; Cabral, Denise Cunha

2011-01-01

Research highlights: → This article presents an uncertainty modelling study using a fuzzy approach. → The AP1000 Westinghouse NPP was used and it is provided of passive safety systems. → The use of advanced passive safety systems in NPP has limited operational experience. → Failure rates and basic events probabilities used on the fault tree analysis. → Fuzzy uncertainty approach was employed to reliability of the AP1000 large LOCA. - Abstract: This article presents an uncertainty modeling study using a fuzzy approach applied to the Westinghouse advanced nuclear reactor. The AP1000 Westinghouse Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is provided of passive safety systems, based on thermo physics phenomenon, that require no operating actions, soon after an incident has been detected. The use of advanced passive safety systems in NPP has limited operational experience. As it occurs in any reliability study, statistically non-significant events report introduces a significant uncertainty level about the failure rates and basic events probabilities used on the fault tree analysis (FTA). In order to model this uncertainty, a fuzzy approach was employed to reliability analysis of the AP1000 large break Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The final results have revealed that the proposed approach may be successfully applied to modeling of uncertainties in safety studies.

Consequences of Uncertainty for Regulation: Law and Economics of the Financial Crisis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.M. Pacces (Alessio)

2010-01-01

textabstractAbstract This article analyzes the last financial crisis focussing on the recurrent dynamics of externalities in banking. It shows that two major determinants of the crisis were the uncertainty of a new form of financial intermediation and the failure of regulation to cope with its

Abstract numeric relations and the visual structure of algebra.

Science.gov (United States)

Landy, David; Brookes, David; Smout, Ryan

2014-09-01

Formal algebras are among the most powerful and general mechanisms for expressing quantitative relational statements; yet, even university engineering students, who are relatively proficient with algebraic manipulation, struggle with and often fail to correctly deploy basic aspects of algebraic notation (Clement, 1982). In the cognitive tradition, it has often been assumed that skilled users of these formalisms treat situations in terms of semantic properties encoded in an abstract syntax that governs the use of notation without particular regard to the details of the physical structure of the equation itself (Anderson, 2005; Hegarty, Mayer, & Monk, 1995). We explore how the notational structure of verbal descriptions or algebraic equations (e.g., the spatial proximity of certain words or the visual alignment of numbers and symbols in an equation) plays a role in the process of interpreting or constructing symbolic equations. We propose in particular that construction processes involve an alignment of notational structures across representation systems, biasing reasoners toward the selection of formal notations that maintain the visuospatial structure of source representations. For example, in the statement "There are 5 elephants for every 3 rhinoceroses," the spatial proximity of 5 and elephants and 3 and rhinoceroses will bias reasoners to write the incorrect expression 5E = 3R, because that expression maintains the spatial relationships encoded in the source representation. In 3 experiments, participants constructed equations with given structure, based on story problems with a variety of phrasings. We demonstrate how the notational alignment approach accounts naturally for a variety of previously reported phenomena in equation construction and successfully predicts error patterns that are not accounted for by prior explanations, such as the left to right transcription heuristic.

Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

2008-02-01

The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, R.L.

1994-01-01

Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

Information-theoretic approach to uncertainty importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, C.K.; Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

A method is presented for importance analysis in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for which the results of interest are characterized by full uncertainty distributions and not just point estimates. The method is based on information theory in which entropy is a measure of uncertainty of a probability density function. We define the relative uncertainty importance between two events as the ratio of the two exponents of the entropies. For the log-normal and log-uniform distributions the importance measure is comprised of the median (central tendency) and of the logarithm of the error factor (uncertainty). Thus, if accident sequences are ranked this way, and the error factors are not all equal, then a different rank order would result than if the sequences were ranked by the central tendency measure alone. As an illustration, the relative importance of internal events and in-plant fires was computed on the basis of existing PRA results

Entanglement criterion for tripartite systems based on local sum uncertainty relations

Science.gov (United States)

Akbari-Kourbolagh, Y.; Azhdargalam, M.

2018-04-01

We propose a sufficient criterion for the entanglement of tripartite systems based on local sum uncertainty relations for arbitrarily chosen observables of subsystems. This criterion generalizes the tighter criterion for bipartite systems introduced by Zhang et al. [C.-J. Zhang, H. Nha, Y.-S. Zhang, and G.-C. Guo, Phys. Rev. A 81, 012324 (2010), 10.1103/PhysRevA.81.012324] and can be used for both discrete- and continuous-variable systems. It enables us to detect the entanglement of quantum states without having a complete knowledge of them. Its utility is illustrated by some examples of three-qubit, qutrit-qutrit-qubit, and three-mode Gaussian states. It is found that, in comparison with other criteria, this criterion is able to detect some three-qubit bound entangled states more efficiently.

Abstraction and art.

Science.gov (United States)

Gortais, Bernard

2003-07-29

In a given social context, artistic creation comprises a set of processes, which relate to the activity of the artist and the activity of the spectator. Through these processes we see and understand that the world is vaster than it is said to be. Artistic processes are mediated experiences that open up the world. A successful work of art expresses a reality beyond actual reality: it suggests an unknown world using the means and the signs of the known world. Artistic practices incorporate the means of creation developed by science and technology and change forms as they change. Artists and the public follow different processes of abstraction at different levels, in the definition of the means of creation, of representation and of perception of a work of art. This paper examines how the processes of abstraction are used within the framework of the visual arts and abstract painting, which appeared during a period of growing importance for the processes of abstraction in science and technology, at the beginning of the twentieth century. The development of digital platforms and new man-machine interfaces allow multimedia creations. This is performed under the constraint of phases of multidisciplinary conceptualization using generic representation languages, which tend to abolish traditional frontiers between the arts: visual arts, drama, dance and music.

What is the uncertainty principle of non-relativistic quantum mechanics?

Science.gov (United States)

Riggs, Peter J.

2018-05-01

After more than ninety years of discussions over the uncertainty principle, there is still no universal agreement on what the principle states. The Robertson uncertainty relation (incorporating standard deviations) is given as the mathematical expression of the principle in most quantum mechanics textbooks. However, the uncertainty principle is not merely a statement of what any of the several uncertainty relations affirm. It is suggested that a better approach would be to present the uncertainty principle as a statement about the probability distributions of incompatible variables and the resulting restrictions on quantum states.

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Westerberg, Ida K.; Wagener, Thorsten; Coxon, Gemma; McMillan, Hilary K.; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Freer, Jim

2016-03-01

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30-40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.

The Uncertainties of Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

2014-01-01

for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

Assessment the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty related to geothermalwater sampling

Science.gov (United States)

Wątor, Katarzyna; Mika, Anna; Sekuła, Klaudia; Kmiecik, Ewa

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of samplers change on the uncertainty associated with the process of the geothermal water sampling. The study was carried out on geothermal water exploited in Podhale region, southern Poland (Małopolska province). To estimate the uncertainty associated with sampling the results of determinations of metasilicic acid (H2SiO3) in normal and duplicate samples collected in two series were used (in each series the samples were collected by qualified sampler). Chemical analyses were performed using ICP-OES method in the certified Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow (Certificate of Polish Centre for Accreditation No. AB 1050). To evaluate the uncertainty arising from sampling the empirical approach was implemented, based on double analysis of normal and duplicate samples taken from the same well in the series of testing. The analyses of the results were done using ROBAN software based on technique of robust statistics analysis of variance (rANOVA). Conducted research proved that in the case of qualified and experienced samplers uncertainty connected with the sampling can be reduced what results in small measurement uncertainty.

Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

1983-01-01

Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

The Beam Dynamics and Beam Related Uncertainties in Fermilab Muon $g-2$ Experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Wanwei [Mississippi U.

2018-05-01

The anomaly of the muon magnetic moment, $a_{\\mu}\\equiv (g-2)/2$, has played an important role in constraining physics beyond the Standard Model for many years. Currently, the Standard Model prediction for $a_{\\mu}$ is accurate to 0.42 parts per million (ppm). The most recent muon $g-2$ experiment was done at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and determined $a_{\\mu}$ to 0.54 ppm, with a central value that differs from the Standard Model prediction by 3.3-3.6 standard deviations and provides a strong hint of new physics. The Fermilab Muon $g-2$ Experiment has a goal to measure $a_{\\mu}$ to unprecedented precision: 0.14 ppm, which could provide an unambiguous answer to the question whether there are new particles and forces that exist in nature. To achieve this goal, several items have been identified to lower the systematic uncertainties. In this work, we focus on the beam dynamics and beam associated uncertainties, which are important and must be better understood. We will discuss the electrostatic quadrupole system, particularly the hardware-related quad plate alignment and the quad extension and readout system. We will review the beam dynamics in the muon storage ring, present discussions on the beam related systematic errors, simulate the 3D electric fields of the electrostatic quadrupoles and examine the beam resonances. We will use a fast rotation analysis to study the muon radial momentum distribution, which provides the key input for evaluating the electric field correction to the measured $a_{\\mu}$.

Cultural diversity teaching and issues of uncertainty: the findings of a qualitative study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giordano James

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is considerable ambiguity in the subjective dimensions that comprise much of the relational dynamic of the clinical encounter. Comfort with this ambiguity, and recognition of the potential uncertainty of particular domains of medicine (e.g. – cultural factors of illness expression, value bias in diagnoses, etc is an important facet of medical education. This paper begins by defining ambiguity and uncertainty as relevant to clinical practice. Studies have shown differing patterns of students' tolerance for ambiguity and uncertainty that appear to reflect extant attitudinal predispositions toward technology, objectivity, culture, value- and theory-ladeness, and the need for self-examination. This paper reports on those findings specifically related to the theme of uncertainty as relevant to teaching about cultural diversity. Its focus is to identify how and where the theme of certainty arose in the teaching and learning of cultural diversity, what were the attitudes toward this theme and topic, and how these attitudes and responses reflect and inform this area of medical pedagogy. Methods A semi-structured interview was undertaken with 61 stakeholders (including policymakers, diversity teachers, students and users. The data were analysed and themes identified. Results There were diverse views about what the term cultural diversity means and what should constitute the cultural diversity curriculum. There was a need to provide certainty in teaching cultural diversity with diversity teachers feeling under considerable pressure to provide information. Students discomfort with uncertainty was felt to drive cultural diversity teaching towards factual emphasis rather than reflection or taking a patient centred approach. Conclusion Students and faculty may feel that cultural diversity teaching is more about how to avoid professional, medico-legal pitfalls, rather than improving the patient experience or the patient

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gervasio, V.; Kim, D. S.; Vienna, J. D.; Kruger, A. A.

2018-03-08

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Eddy, John P.

2011-12-01

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

Science.gov (United States)

Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

2012-01-01

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru S.

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and discussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucialpieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii simple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information-transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random variables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.

Reconsideration of the Uncertainty Relations and Quantum Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru S.

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Discussions on uncertainty relations (UR and quantum measurements (QMS persisted until nowadays in publications about quantum mechanics (QM. They originate mainly from the conventional interpretation of UR (CIUR. In the most of the QM literarure, it is underestimated the fact that, over the years, a lot of deficiencies regarding CIUR were signaled. As a rule the alluded deficiencies were remarked disparately and dis- cussed as punctual and non-essential questions. Here we approach an investigation of the mentioned deficiencies collected in a conclusive ensemble. Subsequently we expose a reconsideration of the major problems referring to UR and QMS. We reveal that all the basic presumption of CIUR are troubled by insurmountable deficiencies which require the indubitable failure of CIUR and its necessary abandonment. Therefore the UR must be deprived of their statute of crucial pieces for physics. So, the aboriginal versions of UR appear as being in postures of either (i thought-experimental fictions or (ii sim- ple QM formulae and, any other versions of them, have no connection with the QMS. Then the QMS must be viewed as an additional subject comparatively with the usual questions of QM. For a theoretical description of QMS we propose an information- transmission model, in which the quantum observables are considered as random vari- ables. Our approach directs to natural solutions and simplifications for many problems regarding UR and QMS.

Facing uncertainty in ecosystem services-based resource management.

Science.gov (United States)

Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Brunner, Sibyl H; Altwegg, Jürg; Bebi, Peter

2013-09-01

The concept of ecosystem services is increasingly used as a support for natural resource management decisions. While the science for assessing ecosystem services is improving, appropriate methods to address uncertainties in a quantitative manner are missing. Ignoring parameter uncertainties, modeling uncertainties and uncertainties related to human-environment interactions can modify decisions and lead to overlooking important management possibilities. In this contribution, we present a new approach for mapping the uncertainties in the assessment of multiple ecosystem services. The spatially explicit risk approach links Bayesian networks to a Geographic Information System for forecasting the value of a bundle of ecosystem services and quantifies the uncertainties related to the outcomes in a spatially explicit manner. We demonstrate that mapping uncertainties in ecosystem services assessments provides key information for decision-makers seeking critical areas in the delivery of ecosystem services in a case study in the Swiss Alps. The results suggest that not only the total value of the bundle of ecosystem services is highly dependent on uncertainties, but the spatial pattern of the ecosystem services values changes substantially when considering uncertainties. This is particularly important for the long-term management of mountain forest ecosystems, which have long rotation stands and are highly sensitive to pressing climate and socio-economic changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty calculations made easier

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogenbirk, A.

1994-07-01

The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langton, S.E.; Buijs, A.; Pencer, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling sensitivity. • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. • Isotopes of Zr make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. - Abstract: Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium

Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2013-01-01

as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

2017-12-01

Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2006-01-01

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

Phenomenon of Uncertainty as a Subjective Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lifintseva A.A.

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of uncertainty in illness of patients is discussed and analyzed in this article. Uncertainty in illness is a condition that accompanies the patient from the moment of appearance of the first somatic symptoms of the disease and could be strengthened or weakened thanks to many psychosocial factors. The level of uncertainty is related to the level of stress, emotional disadaptation, affective states, coping strategies, mechanisms of psychological defense, etc. Uncertainty can perform destructive functions, acting as a trigger for stressful conditions and launching negative emotional experiences. As a positive function of uncertainty, one can note a possible positive interpretation of the patient's disease. In addition, the state of uncertainty allows the patient to activate the resources of coping with the disease, among which the leading role belongs to social support.

The Stock Market: Risk vs. Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Griffitts, Dawn

2002-01-01

This economics education publication focuses on the U.S. stock market and the risk and uncertainty that an individual faces when investing in the market. The material explains that risk and uncertainty relate to the same underlying concept randomness. It defines and discusses both concepts and notes that although risk is quantifiable, uncertainty…

Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

1996-01-01

It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

2016-06-01

of experience. Two hundred forty-two (34%) members completed the survey. We found no differences between responders and nonresponders. Each survey item measured its own trait better than any of the other traits. Recognition of uncertainty (0.70) and confidence bias (0.75) had relatively high Cronbach alpha levels, meaning that the questions making up these traits are closely related and probably measure the same construct. This was lower for statistical understanding (0.48) and trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (0.37). Subsequently, combining each trait's individual questions, we calculated a 0 to 10 score for each trait. The mean recognition of uncertainty score was 3.2 ± 1.4. Recognition of uncertainty in daily practice did not vary by years in practice (0-5 years, 3.2 ± 1.3; 6-10 years, 2.9 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 3.2 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 3.3 ± 1.6 years; p = 0.51), but overconfidence bias did correlate with years in practice (0-5 years, 6.2 ± 1.4; 6-10 years, 7.1 ± 1.3; 11-20 years, 7.4 ± 1.4; 21-30 years, 7.1 ± 1.2 years; p < 0.001). Accounting for a potential interaction of variables using multivariable analysis, less recognition of uncertainty was independently but weakly associated with working in a multispecialty group compared with academic practice (β regression coefficient, -0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.0 to -0.055; partial R(2), 0.021; p = 0.029), belief in God or any other deity/deities (β, -0.57; 95% CI, -1.0 to -0.11; partial R(2), 0.026; p = 0.015), greater confidence bias (β, -0.26; 95% CI, -0.37 to -0.14; partial R(2), 0.084; p < 0.001), and greater trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (β, -0.16; 95% CI, -0.26 to -0.058; partial R(2), 0.040; p = 0.002). Better statistical understanding was independently, and more strongly, associated with greater recognition of uncertainty (β, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.17-0.34; partial R(2), 0.13; p < 0.001). Our full model accounted for 29% of the variability in recognition of uncertainty (adjusted

Seismic Consequence Abstraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gross, M.

2004-01-01

The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274])

Seismic Consequence Abstraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

M. Gross

2004-10-25

The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]).

Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleš Mlakar

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

Uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garaud, Damien

2011-01-01

This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we build a multi-model ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically generated. Then, these ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or shows good resolution and reliability for probabilistic forecasting. This work shows that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve the reliability of threshold exceedance predictions. The approach is compared with Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated or not. The Monte Carlo approach appears to be less representative of the uncertainties than the multi-model approach. Finally, we quantify the observational error, the representativeness error and the modeling errors. The work is applied to the impact of thermal power plants, in order to quantify the uncertainty on the impact estimates. (author) [fr

Measurement uncertainty of dissolution test of acetaminophen immediate release tablets using Monte Carlo simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Cancelli Romero

2017-10-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Analytical results are widely used to assess batch-by-batch conformity, pharmaceutical equivalence, as well as in the development of drug products. Despite this, few papers describing the measurement uncertainty estimation associated with these results were found in the literature. Here, we described a simple procedure used for estimating measurement uncertainty associated with the dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets. A fractionate factorial design was used to define a mathematical model that explains the amount of acetaminophen dissolved (% as a function of time of dissolution (from 20 to 40 minutes, volume of dissolution media (from 800 to 1000 mL, pH of dissolution media (from 2.0 to 6.8, and rotation speed (from 40 to 60 rpm. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated measurement uncertainty for dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets (95.2 ± 1.0%, with a 95% confidence level. Rotation speed was the most important source of uncertainty, contributing about 96.2% of overall uncertainty. Finally, it is important to note that the uncertainty calculated in this paper reflects the expected uncertainty to the dissolution test, and does not consider variations in the content of acetaminophen.

Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S.Y.; Ahn, K.I.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Phenomenological uncertainty analysis has been applied to level 2 PSA. • The methodology provides an alternative to simple deterministic analyses and sensitivity studies. • A realistic evaluation provides a more complete characterization of risks. • Uncertain parameters of MAAP code for the early containment failure were identified. - Abstract: This paper illustrates an application of a severe accident analysis code, MAAP, to the uncertainty evaluation of early containment failure scenarios employed in the containment event tree (CET) model of a reference plant. An uncertainty analysis of containment pressure behavior during severe accidents has been performed for an optimum assessment of an early containment failure model. The present application is mainly focused on determining an estimate of the containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences of a nuclear power plant. Key modeling parameters and phenomenological models employed for the present uncertainty analysis are closely related to the in-vessel hydrogen generation, direct containment heating, and gas combustion. The basic approach of this methodology is to (1) develop severe accident scenarios for which containment pressure loads should be performed based on a level 2 PSA, (2) identify severe accident phenomena relevant to an early containment failure, (3) identify the MAAP input parameters, sensitivity coefficients, and modeling options that describe or influence the early containment failure phenomena, (4) prescribe the likelihood descriptions of the potential range of these parameters, and (5) evaluate the code predictions using a number of random combinations of parameter inputs sampled from the likelihood distributions

Estimation of environment-related properties of chemicals for design of sustainable processes: development of group-contribution+ (GC+) property models and uncertainty analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Kalakul, Sawitree; Sarup, Bent; Young, Douglas M; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

2012-11-26

The aim of this work is to develop group-contribution(+) (GC(+)) method (combined group-contribution (GC) method and atom connectivity index (CI) method) based property models to provide reliable estimations of environment-related properties of organic chemicals together with uncertainties of estimated property values. For this purpose, a systematic methodology for property modeling and uncertainty analysis is used. The methodology includes a parameter estimation step to determine parameters of property models and an uncertainty analysis step to establish statistical information about the quality of parameter estimation, such as the parameter covariance, the standard errors in predicted properties, and the confidence intervals. For parameter estimation, large data sets of experimentally measured property values of a wide range of chemicals (hydrocarbons, oxygenated chemicals, nitrogenated chemicals, poly functional chemicals, etc.) taken from the database of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and from the database of USEtox is used. For property modeling and uncertainty analysis, the Marrero and Gani GC method and atom connectivity index method have been considered. In total, 22 environment-related properties, which include the fathead minnow 96-h LC(50), Daphnia magna 48-h LC(50), oral rat LD(50), aqueous solubility, bioconcentration factor, permissible exposure limit (OSHA-TWA), photochemical oxidation potential, global warming potential, ozone depletion potential, acidification potential, emission to urban air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental rural air (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental fresh water (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental seawater (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), emission to continental natural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic), and emission to continental agricultural soil (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) have been modeled and analyzed. The application

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen; Halman, Johannes I.M.

2016-01-01

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take

Site utility system optimization with operation adjustment under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Li; Gai, Limei; Smith, Robin

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainties are classified into time-based and probability-based uncertain factors. • Multi-period operation and recourses deal with uncertainty implementation. • Operation scheduling are specified at the design stage to deal with uncertainties. • Steam mains superheating affects steam distribution and power generation in the system. - Abstract: Utility systems must satisfy process energy and power demands under varying conditions. The system performance is decided by the system configuration and individual equipment operating load for boilers, gas turbines, steam turbines, condensers, and let down valves. Steam mains conditions in terms of steam pressures and steam superheating also play important roles on steam distribution in the system and power generation by steam expansion in steam turbines, and should be included in the system optimization. Uncertainties such as process steam power demand changes and electricity price fluctuations should be included in the system optimization to eliminate as much as possible the production loss caused by steam power deficits due to uncertainties. In this paper, uncertain factors are classified into time-based and probability-based uncertain factors, and operation scheduling containing multi-period equipment load sharing, redundant equipment start up, and electricity import to compensate for power deficits, have been presented to deal with the happens of uncertainties, and are formulated as a multi-period item and a recourse item in the optimization model. There are two case studies in this paper. One case illustrates the system design to determine system configuration, equipment selection, and system operation scheduling at the design stage to deal with uncertainties. The other case provides operational optimization scenarios for an existing system, especially when the steam superheating varies. The proposed method can provide practical guidance to system energy efficiency improvement.

Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louise Marshall

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessling, J P

2011-01-01

The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

Assessing River Low-Flow Uncertainties Related to Hydrological Model Calibration and Structure under Climate Change Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mélanie Trudel

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.

Stochastic goal programming based groundwater remediation management under human-health-risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jing; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose an integrated optimal groundwater remediation design approach. • The approach can address stochasticity in carcinogenic risks. • Goal programming is used to make the system approaching to ideal operation and remediation effects. • The uncertainty in slope factor is evaluated under different confidence levels. • Optimal strategies are obtained to support remediation design under uncertainty. - Abstract: An optimal design approach for groundwater remediation is developed through incorporating numerical simulation, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis and nonlinear optimization within a general framework. Stochastic analysis and goal programming are introduced into the framework to handle uncertainties in real-world groundwater remediation systems. Carcinogenic risks associated with remediation actions are further evaluated at four confidence levels. The differences between ideal and predicted constraints are minimized by goal programming. The approach is then applied to a contaminated site in western Canada for creating a set of optimal remediation strategies. Results from the case study indicate that factors including environmental standards, health risks and technical requirements mutually affected and restricted themselves. Stochastic uncertainty existed in the entire process of remediation optimization, which should to be taken into consideration in groundwater remediation design

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Addressing uncertainties in the ERICA Integrated Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oughton, D.H.; Agueero, A.; Avila, R.; Brown, J.E.; Copplestone, D.; Gilek, M.

2008-01-01

Like any complex environmental problem, ecological risk assessment of the impacts of ionising radiation is confounded by uncertainty. At all stages, from problem formulation through to risk characterisation, the assessment is dependent on models, scenarios, assumptions and extrapolations. These include technical uncertainties related to the data used, conceptual uncertainties associated with models and scenarios, as well as social uncertainties such as economic impacts, the interpretation of legislation, and the acceptability of the assessment results to stakeholders. The ERICA Integrated Approach has been developed to allow an assessment of the risks of ionising radiation, and includes a number of methods that are intended to make the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in the assessment more transparent to users and stakeholders. Throughout its development, ERICA has recommended that assessors deal openly with the deeper dimensions of uncertainty and acknowledge that uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems. Since the tool is based on a tiered approach, the approaches to dealing with uncertainty vary between the tiers, ranging from a simple, but highly conservative screening to a full probabilistic risk assessment including sensitivity analysis. This paper gives on overview of types of uncertainty that are manifest in ecological risk assessment and the ERICA Integrated Approach to dealing with some of these uncertainties

Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje

2010-01-01

A guide to quantitative uncertainty analysis and management in industry has recently been issued. The guide provides an overall framework for uncertainty modelling and characterisations, using probabilities but also other uncertainty representations (including the Dempster-Shafer theory). A number of practical applications showing how to use the framework are presented. The guide is considered as an important contribution to the field, but there is a potential for improvements. These relate mainly to the scientific basis and clarification of critical issues, for example, concerning the meaning of a probability and the concept of model uncertainty. A reformulation of the framework is suggested using probabilities as the only representation of uncertainty. Several simple examples are included to motivate and explain the basic ideas of the modified framework.

Comparison of Two Methods for Estimating the Sampling-Related Uncertainty of Satellite Rainfall Averages Based on a Large Radar Data Set

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor); Bell, Thomas L.; Steiner, Matthias; Zhang, Yu; Wood, Eric F.

2002-01-01

The uncertainty of rainfall estimated from averages of discrete samples collected by a satellite is assessed using a multi-year radar data set covering a large portion of the United States. The sampling-related uncertainty of rainfall estimates is evaluated for all combinations of 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km space domains, 1 day, 5 day, and 30 day rainfall accumulations, and regular sampling time intervals of 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 8 h, and 12 h. These extensive analyses are combined to characterize the sampling uncertainty as a function of space and time domain, sampling frequency, and rainfall characteristics by means of a simple scaling law. Moreover, it is shown that both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques of estimating the sampling uncertainty produce comparable results. Sampling uncertainty estimates, however, do depend on the choice of technique for obtaining them. They can also vary considerably from case to case, reflecting the great variability of natural rainfall, and should therefore be expressed in probabilistic terms. Rainfall calibration errors are shown to affect comparison of results obtained by studies based on data from different climate regions and/or observation platforms.

Amazon collapse in the next century: exploring the sensitivity to climate and model formulation uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B.; Collins, M.; Harris, G.; Chris, H.; Jones, C.

2007-12-01

A number of recent studies have highlighted the risk of abrupt dieback of the Amazon Rain Forest as the result of climate changes over the next century. The recent 2005 Amazon drought brought wider acceptance of the idea that that climate drivers will play a significant role in future rain forest stability, yet that stability is still subject to considerable degree of uncertainty. We present a study which seeks to explore some of the underlying uncertainties both in the climate drivers of dieback and in the terrestrial land surface formulation used in GCMs. We adopt a perturbed physics approach which forms part of a wider project which is covered in an accompanying abstract submitted to the multi-model ensembles session. We first couple the same interactive land surface model to a number of different versions of the Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean model that exhibit a wide range of different physical climate responses in the future. The rainforest extent is shown to collapse in all model cases but the timing of the collapse is dependent on the magnitude of the climate drivers. In the second part, we explore uncertainties in the terrestrial land surface model using the perturbed physics ensemble approach, perturbing uncertain parameters which have an important role in the vegetation and soil response. Contrasting the two approaches enables a greater understanding of the relative importance of climatic and land surface model uncertainties in Amazon dieback.

Deterministic uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Worley, B.A.

1987-12-01

This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

Abstracts of the 8th Conference on total reflection x-ray fluorescence analysis and related methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wobrauschek, P.

2000-01-01

The 8. conference on total reflection x-ray fluorescence analysis and related methods held from 25.9 to 29.9.2000 contains 79 abstracts about x-ray fluorescence analysis (XRFA) as a powerful tool used for industrial production, geological prospecting and for environmental control. Total reflection x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy is also a tool used for chemical analysis in medicine, industry and research. (E.B.)

ABSTRACTION OF DRIFT SEEPAGE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, Michael L.

2001-01-01

Drift seepage refers to flow of liquid water into repository emplacement drifts, where it can potentially contribute to degradation of the engineered systems and release and transport of radionuclides within the drifts. Because of these important effects, seepage into emplacement drifts is listed as a ''principal factor for the postclosure safety case'' in the screening criteria for grading of data in Attachment 1 of AP-3.15Q, Rev. 2, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''. Abstraction refers to distillation of the essential components of a process model into a form suitable for use in total-system performance assessment (TSPA). Thus, the purpose of this analysis/model is to put the information generated by the seepage process modeling in a form appropriate for use in the TSPA for the Site Recommendation. This report also supports the Unsaturated-Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report. The scope of the work is discussed below. This analysis/model is governed by the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS MandO 2000a). Details of this activity are in Addendum A of the technical work plan. The original Work Direction and Planning Document is included as Attachment 7 of Addendum A. Note that the Work Direction and Planning Document contains tasks identified for both Performance Assessment Operations (PAO) and Natural Environment Program Operations (NEPO). Only the PAO tasks are documented here. The planning for the NEPO activities is now in Addendum D of the same technical work plan and the work is documented in a separate report (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The Project has been reorganized since the document was written. The responsible organizations in the new structure are the Performance Assessment Department and the Unsaturated Zone Department, respectively. The work plan for the seepage abstraction calls for determining an appropriate abstraction methodology, determining uncertainties in seepage, and providing

Using Options to Manage Dynamic Uncertainty in Acquisition Projects

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Ceylan, B. K; Ford, David N

2002-01-01

Uncertainty in acquisition projects and environments can degrade performance. Traditional project planning, management tools, and methods can effectively deal with uncertainties in relatively stable environments...

An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2009-01-01

Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2014-01-01

Material flow analysis (MFA) is a tool to investigate material flows and stocks in defined systems as a basis for resource management or environmental pollution control. Because of the diverse nature of sources and the varying quality and availability of data, MFA results are inherently uncertain....... Uncertainty analyses have received increasing attention in recent MFA studies, but systematic approaches for selection of appropriate uncertainty tools are missing. This article reviews existing literature related to handling of uncertainty in MFA studies and evaluates current practice of uncertainty analysis......) and exploratory MFA (identification of critical parameters and system behavior). Whereas mathematically simpler concepts focusing on data uncertainty characterization are appropriate for descriptive MFAs, statistical approaches enabling more-rigorous evaluation of uncertainty and model sensitivity are needed...

Entanglement witness via quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Jiadong; Ding, Zhiyong; Wu, Tao; He, Juan; Yu, Lizhi; Sun, Wenyang; Wang, Dong; Ye, Liu

2017-12-01

By virtue of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation (EUR), we analyze entanglement witness via the efficiencies of the estimates proposed by Berta (2010 Nat. Phys. 6 659) and Pati (2012 Phys. Rev. A 86 042105). The results show that, without a structured reservoir, the entanglement regions witnessed by these EUR estimates are only determined by the chosen estimated setup, and have no correlation with the explicit form of the initial state. On the other hand, with the structured reservoirs, the time regions during which the entanglement can be witnessed, and the corresponding entanglement regions closely depend on the choice of the estimated setup, the initial state and the state purity p . Concretely, for a pure state with p=1 , the entanglement can be witnessed by both estimates, while for mixed states with p=0.78 , it can only be witnessed using the Pati estimate. What is more, we find that the time regions incorporating the Pati estimate become discontinuous for the initial state with ≤ft| {{φ }\\prime } \\right> ={≤ft(≤ft| 01 \\right> +≤ft| 10 \\right> \\right)}/{\\sqrt{2}} , and the corresponding entanglement regions remain the same; however the entanglement can only be witnessed once by utilizing the Berta estimate.

Uncertainty analysis of the FRAP code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peck, S.O.

1978-01-01

A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been built into the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) code and has been applied to a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel rod undergoing a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The method of uncertainty analysis is the response surface method. The automated version significantly reduced the time required to complete the analysis and, at the same time, greatly increased the problem scope. Results of the analysis showed a significant difference in the total and relative contributions to the uncertainty of the response parameters between steady state and transient conditions

Measurement uncertainties for vacuum standards at Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, S. S.; Shin, Y. H.; Chung, K. H.

2006-01-01

The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM) (Sec. II, Figs. 1 and 2) for low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES) (Sec. III, Figs. 3 and 4) for medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES) (Sec. IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultrahigh vacuum. For each system explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are, respectively, given. According to ISO standards, all these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system the expanded uncertainties (k=1, confidence level=95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) are summarized in Table IV and are estimated to be as follows. For UIM, at 2.5-300 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -2 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 ; at 1-100 kPa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -5 . For SES, at 3-100 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -1 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 . For DES, at 4.6x10 -3 -1.3x10 -2 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -4 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 ; at 3.0x10 -6 -9.0x10 -4 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -6 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 . Within uncertainty limits our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa-1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table V)

Uncertainty Assessment: What Good Does it Do? (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Oreskes, N.; Lewandowsky, S.

2013-12-01

The scientific community has devoted considerable time and energy to understanding, quantifying and articulating the uncertainties related to anthropogenic climate change. However, informed decision-making and good public policy arguably rely far more on a central core of understanding of matters that are scientifically well established than on detailed understanding and articulation of all relevant uncertainties. Advocates of vaccination, for example, stress its overall efficacy in preventing morbidity and mortality--not the uncertainties over how long the protective effects last. Advocates for colonoscopy for cancer screening stress its capacity to detect polyps before they become cancerous, with relatively little attention paid to the fact that many, if not most, polyps, would not become cancerous even if left unremoved. So why has the climate science community spent so much time focused on uncertainty? One reason, of course, is that articulation of uncertainty is a normal and appropriate part of scientific work. However, we argue that there is another reason that involves the pressure that the scientific community has experienced from individuals and groups promoting doubt about anthropogenic climate change. Specifically, doubt-mongering groups focus public attention on scientific uncertainty as a means to undermine scientific claims, equating uncertainty with untruth. Scientists inadvertently validate these arguments by agreeing that much of the science is uncertain, and thus seemingly implying that our knowledge is insecure. The problem goes further, as the scientific community attempts to articulate more clearly, and reduce, those uncertainties, thus, seemingly further agreeing that the knowledge base is insufficient to warrant public and governmental action. We refer to this effect as 'seepage,' as the effects of doubt-mongering seep into the scientific community and the scientific agenda, despite the fact that addressing these concerns does little to alter

On how to understand and present the uncertainties in production assurance analyses, with a case study related to a subsea production system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, Terje; Pedersen, Linda Martens

2014-01-01

Production assurance analyses of production systems are in practice typically carried out using flow network modelling and Monte Carlo simulations. Based on the network and probability distribution assumptions for equipment lifetime and restoration time, the simulation tool produces predictions/estimates and uncertainty distributions of the production availability, which is defined as the ratio of production to planned production, or any other reference level, over a specified period of time. To adequately communicate the results from the analyses, it is essential that there is in place a framework which clarifies how to understand the concepts introduced, including the uncertainty distributions produced. Some key elements of such a conceptual framework are well established in the industry, for example the use of probability models to represent the stochastic variation related to lifetimes and restoration times. However an overall framework linking this variation, as well as “model uncertainties”, to the epistemic uncertainty distribution for the output production availability, has been lacking. The purpose of the present paper is to present such a framework, and in this way provide new insights to and guidelines on how to understand and present the uncertainties in practical production assurance analyses. An example related to a subsea production system is used to illustrate the framework and the guidelines

Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn

2012-08-01

There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)

2001-12-01

When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.

Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.

2001-12-01

When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals

Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

1990-01-01

Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

Davis-Besse uncertainty study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, C.B.

1987-08-01

The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

Uncertainty in Forest Net Present Value Estimations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilona Pietilä

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Uncertainty related to inventory data, growth models and timber price fluctuation was investigated in the assessment of forest property net present value (NPV. The degree of uncertainty associated with inventory data was obtained from previous area-based airborne laser scanning (ALS inventory studies. The study was performed, applying the Monte Carlo simulation, using stand-level growth and yield projection models and three alternative rates of interest (3, 4 and 5%. Timber price fluctuation was portrayed with geometric mean-reverting (GMR price models. The analysis was conducted for four alternative forest properties having varying compartment structures: (A a property having an even development class distribution, (B sapling stands, (C young thinning stands, and (D mature stands. Simulations resulted in predicted yield value (predicted NPV distributions at both stand and property levels. Our results showed that ALS inventory errors were the most prominent source of uncertainty, leading to a 5.1–7.5% relative deviation of property-level NPV when an interest rate of 3% was applied. Interestingly, ALS inventory led to significant biases at the property level, ranging from 8.9% to 14.1% (3% interest rate. ALS inventory-based bias was the most significant in mature stand properties. Errors related to the growth predictions led to a relative standard deviation in NPV, varying from 1.5% to 4.1%. Growth model-related uncertainty was most significant in sapling stand properties. Timber price fluctuation caused the relative standard deviations ranged from 3.4% to 6.4% (3% interest rate. The combined relative variation caused by inventory errors, growth model errors and timber price fluctuation varied, depending on the property type and applied rates of interest, from 6.4% to 12.6%. By applying the methodology described here, one may take into account the effects of various uncertainty factors in the prediction of forest yield value and to supply the

Evaluation of cutting force uncertainty components in turning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Axinte, Dragos Aurelian; Belluco, Walter; De Chiffre, Leonardo

2000-01-01

A procedure is proposed for the evaluation of those uncertainty components of a single cutting force measurement in turning that are related to the contributions of the dynamometer calibration and the cutting process itself. Based on an empirical model including errors form both sources......, the uncertainty for a single measurement of cutting force is presented, and expressions for the expected uncertainty vs. cutting parameters are proposed. This approach gives the possibility of evaluating cutting force uncertainty components in turning, for a defined range of cutting parameters, based on few...

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghione, Alberto; Noel, Brigitte; Vinai, Paolo; Demazière, Christophe

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor is analyzed using CATHARE. • Input and model uncertainties relevant to the transient, are considered. • A statistical methodology for the propagation of the uncertainties is applied. • No safety criteria are exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins are estimated. • The most influential uncertainties are determined with a sensitivity analysis. - Abstract: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is presented. The JHR is a new material testing reactor under construction at CEA on the Cadarache site, France. The thermal-hydraulic system code CATHARE is applied to investigate the response of the reactor system to the scenario. The uncertainty and sensitivity study was based on a statistical methodology for code uncertainty propagation, and the ‘Uncertainty and Sensitivity’ platform URANIE was used. Accordingly, the input uncertainties relevant to the transient, were identified, quantified, and propagated to the code output. The results show that the safety criteria are not exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins exist. In addition, the most influential input uncertainties on the safety parameters were found by making use of a sensitivity analysis.

Roadmap toward addressing and communicating uncertainty in LCA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laurin, Lise; Vigon, Bruce; Fantke, Peter

2017-01-01

-characterized uncertainty. The group has investigated current best LCA practices, such as refinements to the pedigree matrix used to assess LCI data quality. In parallel, in the frame of UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative flagship project on providing Harmonization and Global Guidance for Environmental Life Cycle Impact...... uncertainty is further related to input data, model selection and choices, amongst other aspects. Currently, methods exist to assess and assign uncertainty and variability on LCI data as well as LCIA characterization results. However, often uncertainty is only assessed and reported qualitatively......, is not comparable across impact categories and not consistently assessed and reported across levels of detail. Furthermore, many existing methods and models do not report uncertainty at all or limit their uncertainty assessment to a sensitivity analysis of selected input parameters, while ignoring variability...

Uncertainty Margin of Void Packet Determination for Ultrasonic Test in NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Seungchan; Sung, Jejung; Lee, Jongchan; Kim, Jonguk

2014-01-01

In this study, the uncertainty of the void packet determination is estimated and the conservatism is reviewed by comparing with realistic uncertainty of Heckle's uncertainty. The methodology of ISO GUM is fully applied to calculate uncertainty, combined uncertainty and effective degree of freedom. Here some results are achieved as below: Combined uncertainty(UT) : 4.98%, Combined uncertainty(Heckle) : 1.44%, Degree of freedom: 5 ∼ 15, Effective degree of freedom(UT): 24.11, Effective degree of freedom(Heckle): 28.54, K value of t-distribution(UT): 2.042, K value of t-distribution(Heckle): 2.04, The uncertainty of this study using UT is enough in the case of achieving conservatism when the void packet determination of the safety related system is determined. As result of this study, UT uncertainty is more conservative than the Heckle's realistic uncertainty. From these results, it is shown that UT method has the great safety margin in determining the void packet. In comparing UT uncertainty with realistic uncertainty, this study (UT) has the conservatism of more than 3.4 times. UT method is good method to determine the void packet of ECCS pipe and to achieve the safety margin. In a safety related system, a void packet determination is issued by US NRC through the Generic Letter 2008-01. In case of the safety function, ECCS, CSS, and RHR systems are affected by the void packet. The related study has been being carried out by KHNP since 2012. In this study, the void packet determination using a ultra sonic test method has been carried out in some sites. This paper shows the uncertainty of the method using the ultra sonic test. The key parameters are introduced and estimated. Specially, the measurement conservatism for NPP is introduced to show the uncertainty margin

Uncertainty Margin of Void Packet Determination for Ultrasonic Test in NPP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seungchan; Sung, Jejung [Korea Hydro Nuclear Power Electricity Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jongchan; Kim, Jonguk [FNC Technology Co., LTD., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

In this study, the uncertainty of the void packet determination is estimated and the conservatism is reviewed by comparing with realistic uncertainty of Heckle's uncertainty. The methodology of ISO GUM is fully applied to calculate uncertainty, combined uncertainty and effective degree of freedom. Here some results are achieved as below: Combined uncertainty(UT) : 4.98%, Combined uncertainty(Heckle) : 1.44%, Degree of freedom: 5 ∼ 15, Effective degree of freedom(UT): 24.11, Effective degree of freedom(Heckle): 28.54, K value of t-distribution(UT): 2.042, K value of t-distribution(Heckle): 2.04, The uncertainty of this study using UT is enough in the case of achieving conservatism when the void packet determination of the safety related system is determined. As result of this study, UT uncertainty is more conservative than the Heckle's realistic uncertainty. From these results, it is shown that UT method has the great safety margin in determining the void packet. In comparing UT uncertainty with realistic uncertainty, this study (UT) has the conservatism of more than 3.4 times. UT method is good method to determine the void packet of ECCS pipe and to achieve the safety margin. In a safety related system, a void packet determination is issued by US NRC through the Generic Letter 2008-01. In case of the safety function, ECCS, CSS, and RHR systems are affected by the void packet. The related study has been being carried out by KHNP since 2012. In this study, the void packet determination using a ultra sonic test method has been carried out in some sites. This paper shows the uncertainty of the method using the ultra sonic test. The key parameters are introduced and estimated. Specially, the measurement conservatism for NPP is introduced to show the uncertainty margin.

Determination of the reference air kerma rate for 192Ir brachytherapy sources and the related uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dijk, Eduard van; Kolkman-Deurloo, Inger-Karine K.; Damen, Patricia M. G.

2004-01-01

Different methods exist to determine the air kerma calibration factor of an ionization chamber for the spectrum of a 192 Ir high-dose-rate (HDR) or pulsed-dose-rate (PDR) source. An analysis of two methods to obtain such a calibration factor was performed: (i) the method recommended by [Goetsch et al., Med. Phys. 18, 462-467 (1991)] and (ii) the method employed by the Dutch national standards institute NMi [Petersen et al., Report S-EI-94.01 (NMi, Delft, The Netherlands, 1994)]. This analysis showed a systematic difference on the order of 1% in the determination of the strength of 192 Ir HDR and PDR sources depending on the method used for determining the air kerma calibration factor. The definitive significance of the difference between these methods can only be addressed after performing an accurate analysis of the associated uncertainties. For an NE 2561 (or equivalent) ionization chamber and an in-air jig, a typical uncertainty budget of 0.94% was found with the NMi method. The largest contribution in the type-B uncertainty is the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factor for isotope i, N k i , as determined by the primary or secondary standards laboratories. This uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainties in the physical constants for the average mass-energy absorption coefficient ratio and the stopping power ratios. This means that it is not foreseeable that the standards laboratories can decrease the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factors for ionization chambers in the short term. When the results of the determination of the 192 Ir reference air kerma rates in, e.g., different institutes are compared, the uncertainties in the physical constants are the same. To compare the applied techniques, the ratio of the results can be judged by leaving out the uncertainties due to these physical constants. In that case an uncertainty budget of 0.40% (coverage factor=2) should be taken into account. Due to the differences in approach between the

Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schou, Erik; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2015-01-01

) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty......Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible...... to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief...

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Experiences of liver health related uncertainty and self-reported stress among people who inject drugs living with hepatitis C virus: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Goutzamanis, Stelliana; Doyle, Joseph S; Thompson, Alexander; Dietze, Paul; Hellard, Margaret; Higgs, Peter

2018-04-02

People who inject drugs (PWID) are most at risk of hepatitis C virus infection in Australia. The introduction of transient elastography (TE) (measuring hepatitis fibrosis) and direct acting antiviral medications will likely alter the experience of living with hepatitis C. We aimed to explore positive and negative influences on wellbeing and stress among PWID with hepatitis C. The Treatment and Prevention (TAP) study examines the feasibility of treating hepatitis C mono-infected PWID in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 16 purposively recruited TAP participants. Participants were aware of their hepatitis C seropositive status and had received fibrosis assessment (measured by TE) prior to interview. Questions were open-ended, focusing on the impact of health status on wellbeing and self-reported stress. Interviews were voice recorded, transcribed verbatim and thematically analysed, guided by Mishel's (1988) theory of Uncertainty in Illness. In line with Mishel's theory of Uncertainty in Illness all participants reported hepatitis C-related uncertainty, particularly mis-information or a lack of knowledge surrounding liver health and the meaning of TE results. Those with greater fibrosis experienced an extra layer of prognostic uncertainty. Experiences of uncertainty were a key motivation to seek treatment, which was seen as a way to regain some stability in life. Treatment completion alleviated hepatitis C-related stress, and promoted feelings of empowerment and confidence in addressing other life challenges. TE scores seemingly provide some certainty. However, when paired with limited knowledge, particularly among people with severe fibrosis, TE may be a source of uncertainty and increased personal stress. This suggests the need for simple education programs and resources on liver health to minimise stress.

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.

Science.gov (United States)

Ando, Amy W; Mallory, Mindy L

2012-04-24

Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit-cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change-induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area.

USACM Thematic Workshop On Uncertainty Quantification And Data-Driven Modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stewart, James R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-05-01

The USACM Thematic Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification and Data-Driven Modeling was held on March 23-24, 2017, in Austin, TX. The organizers of the technical program were James R. Stewart of Sandia National Laboratories and Krishna Garikipati of University of Michigan. The administrative organizer was Ruth Hengst, who serves as Program Coordinator for the USACM. The organization of this workshop was coordinated through the USACM Technical Thrust Area on Uncertainty Quantification and Probabilistic Analysis. The workshop website (http://uqpm2017.usacm.org) includes the presentation agenda as well as links to several of the presentation slides (permission to access the presentations was granted by each of those speakers, respectively). Herein, this final report contains the complete workshop program that includes the presentation agenda, the presentation abstracts, and the list of posters.

Can you put too much on your plate? Uncertainty exposure in servitized triads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreye, Melanie E.

2017-01-01

-national servitized triad in a European-North African set-up which was collected through 29 semi-structured interviews and secondary data. Findings: The empirical study identified the existence of the three uncertainty types and directional knock-on effects between them. Specifically, environmental uncertainty...... relational governance reduced relational uncertainty. The knock-on effects were reduced through organisational and relational responses. Originality: This paper makes two contributions. First, a structured analysis of the uncertainty exposure in servitized triads is presented which shows the existence...... of three individual uncertainty types and the knock-on effects between them. Second, organisational responses to reduce the three uncertainty types individually and the knock-on effects between them are presented....

1986 annual information meeting. Abstracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

Abstracts are presented for the following papers: Geohydrological Research at the Y-12 Plant (C.S. Haase); Ecological Impacts of Waste Disposal Operations in Bear Creek Valley Near the Y-12 Plant (J.M. Loar); Finite Element Simulation of Subsurface Contaminant Transport: Logistic Difficulties in Handling Large Field Problems (G.T. Yeh); Dynamic Compaction of a Radioactive Waste Burial Trench (B.P. Spalding); Comparative Evaluation of Potential Sites for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository (E.D. Smith); Changing Priorities in Environmental Assessment and Environmental Compliance (R.M. Reed); Ecology, Ecotoxicology, and Ecological Risk Assessment (L.W. Barnthouse); Theory and Practice in Uncertainty Analysis from Ten Years of Practice (R.H. Gardner); Modeling Landscape Effects of Forest Decline (V.H. Dale); Soil Nitrogen and the Global Carbon Cycle (W.M. Post); Maximizing Wood Energy Production in Short-Rotation Plantations: Effect of Initial Spacing and Rotation Length (L.L. Wright); and Ecological Communities and Processes in Woodland Streams Exhibit Both Direct and Indirect Effects of Acidification (J.W. Elwood)

Formal modeling of a system of chemical reactions under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Krishnendu; Schlipf, John

2014-10-01

We describe a novel formalism representing a system of chemical reactions, with imprecise rates of reactions and concentrations of chemicals, and describe a model reduction method, pruning, based on the chemical properties. We present two algorithms, midpoint approximation and interval approximation, for construction of efficient model abstractions with uncertainty in data. We evaluate computational feasibility by posing queries in computation tree logic (CTL) on a prototype of extracellular-signal-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway.

Uncertainty in Measurement: A Review of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Microsoft Excel for the Calculation of Uncertainties Through Functional Relationships, Including Uncertainties in Empirically Derived Constants

Science.gov (United States)

Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

2014-01-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional

Uncertainty in measurement: a review of monte carlo simulation using microsoft excel for the calculation of uncertainties through functional relationships, including uncertainties in empirically derived constants.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

2014-02-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more 'constants', each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived 'constants' must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship

Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

1995-12-31

A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

2011-01-01

In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Inventory Abstraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leigh, C.

2000-01-01

The purpose of the inventory abstraction as directed by the development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999b) is to: (1) Interpret the results of a series of relative dose calculations (CRWMS M and O 1999c, 1999d). (2) Recommend, including a basis thereof, a set of radionuclides that should be modeled in the Total System Performance Assessment in Support of the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) and the Total System Performance Assessment in Support of the Final Environmental Impact Statement (TSPA-FEIS). (3) Provide initial radionuclide inventories for the TSPA-SR and TSPA-FEIS models. (4) Answer the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)'s Issue Resolution Status Report ''Key Technical Issue: Container Life and Source Term'' (CLST IRSR) (NRC 1999) key technical issue (KTI): ''The rate at which radionuclides in SNF [Spent Nuclear Fuel] are released from the EBS [Engineered Barrier System] through the oxidation and dissolution of spent fuel'' (Subissue 3). The scope of the radionuclide screening analysis encompasses the period from 100 years to 10,000 years after the potential repository at Yucca Mountain is sealed for scenarios involving the breach of a waste package and subsequent degradation of the waste form as required for the TSPA-SR calculations. By extending the time period considered to one million years after repository closure, recommendations are made for the TSPA-FEIS. The waste forms included in the inventory abstraction are Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel (CSNF), DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel (DSNF), High-Level Waste (HLW), naval Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plutonium waste. The intended use of this analysis is in TSPA-SR and TSPA-FEIS. Based on the recommendations made here, models for release, transport, and possibly exposure will be developed for the isotopes that would be the highest contributors to the dose given a release to the accessible environment. The inventory abstraction is important in assessing system performance because

Uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, R.E.

1982-03-01

An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

Corporate income taxation uncertainty and foreign direct investment

OpenAIRE

Zagler, Martin; Zanzottera, Cristiana

2012-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of legal uncertainty around corporate income taxation on foreign direct investment (FDI). Legal uncertainty can take many forms: double tax agreements, different types of legal systems and corruption. We test the effect of legal uncertainty on foreign direct investment with an international panel. We find that an increase in the ratio of the statutory corporate income tax rate of the destination relative to the source country exhibits a negati...

Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kelly, Mark C.; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

2017-01-01

In this work we relate uncertainty in background roughness length (z0) to uncertainty in wind speeds, where the latter are predicted at a wind farm location based on wind statistics observed at a different site. Sensitivity of predicted winds to roughness is derived analytically for the industry...... between mean wind speed and AEP. Following our developments, we provide guidance on approximate roughness uncertainty magnitudes to be expected in industry practice, and we also find that sites with larger background roughness incur relatively larger uncertainties.......-standard European Wind Atlas method, which is based on the geostrophic drag law. We statistically consider roughness and its corresponding uncertainty, in terms of both z0 derived from measured wind speeds as well as that chosen in practice by wind engineers. We show the combined effect of roughness uncertainty...

Perspectives on dosimetric uncertainties and radiological assessments of radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, G.M.; Pinedo, P.; Cancio, D.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to raise some issues concerning uncertainties in the estimation of doses of ionizing radiation arising from waste management practices and the contribution to those uncertainties arising from dosimetry modelling. The intentions are: (a) to provide perspective on the relative uncertainties in the different aspects of radiological assessments of waste management; (b) to give pointers as to where resources could best be targeted as regards reduction in overall uncertainties; and (c) to provide regulatory insight to decisions on low dose management as related to waste management practices. (author)

Statistical characterization of roughness uncertainty and impact on wind resource estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Kelly

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In this work we relate uncertainty in background roughness length (z0 to uncertainty in wind speeds, where the latter are predicted at a wind farm location based on wind statistics observed at a different site. Sensitivity of predicted winds to roughness is derived analytically for the industry-standard European Wind Atlas method, which is based on the geostrophic drag law. We statistically consider roughness and its corresponding uncertainty, in terms of both z0 derived from measured wind speeds as well as that chosen in practice by wind engineers. We show the combined effect of roughness uncertainty arising from differing wind-observation and turbine-prediction sites; this is done for the case of roughness bias as well as for the general case. For estimation of uncertainty in annual energy production (AEP, we also develop a generalized analytical turbine power curve, from which we derive a relation between mean wind speed and AEP. Following our developments, we provide guidance on approximate roughness uncertainty magnitudes to be expected in industry practice, and we also find that sites with larger background roughness incur relatively larger uncertainties.

Maximizing probable oil field profit: uncertainties on well spacing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

1997-01-01

The influence of uncertainties in field development costs, well costs, lifting costs, selling price, discount factor, and oil field reserves are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on present day worth (PDW), oil field lifetime τ 2/3 , optimum number of wells (OWI), and the minimum (n-) and maximum (n+) number of wells to produce a PDW ≥ O. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainties in PDW, τ 2/3 , OWI, nsub(-) and nsub(+) is also analyzed. Numerical illustrations indicate how the maximum PDW depends on the ranges of parameter values, drawn from probability distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, the procedure illustrates the relative importance of contributions of individual factors to the total uncertainty, so that one can assess where to place effort to improve ranges of uncertainty; while the volatility of each estimate allows one to determine when such effort is needful. (author)

Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region

Science.gov (United States)

Ando, Amy W.; Mallory, Mindy L.

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to alter the spatial distributions of species and habitat types but the nature of such change is uncertain. Thus, climate change makes it difficult to implement standard conservation planning paradigms. Previous work has suggested some approaches to cope with such uncertainty but has not harnessed all of the benefits of risk diversification. We adapt Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to optimal spatial targeting of conservation activity, using wetland habitat conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) as an example. This approach finds the allocations of conservation activity among subregions of the planning area that maximize the expected conservation returns for a given level of uncertainty or minimize uncertainty for a given expected level of returns. We find that using MPT instead of simple diversification in the PPR can achieve a value of the conservation objective per dollar spent that is 15% higher for the same level of risk. MPT-based portfolios can also have 21% less uncertainty over benefits or 6% greater expected benefits than the current portfolio of PPR conservation. Total benefits from conservation investment are higher if returns are defined in terms of benefit–cost ratios rather than benefits alone. MPT-guided diversification can work to reduce the climate-change–induced uncertainty of future ecosystem-service benefits from many land policy and investment initiatives, especially when outcomes are negatively correlated between subregions of a planning area. PMID:22451914

Abstract Spatial Reasoning as an Autistic Strength

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, Jennifer L.; Gernsbacher, Morton Ann

2013-01-01

Autistic individuals typically excel on spatial tests that measure abstract reasoning, such as the Block Design subtest on intelligence test batteries and the Raven’s Progressive Matrices nonverbal test of intelligence. Such well-replicated findings suggest that abstract spatial processing is a relative and perhaps absolute strength of autistic individuals. However, previous studies have not systematically varied reasoning level – concrete vs. abstract – and test domain – spatial vs. numerical vs. verbal, which the current study did. Autistic participants (N = 72) and non-autistic participants (N = 72) completed a battery of 12 tests that varied by reasoning level (concrete vs. abstract) and domain (spatial vs. numerical vs. verbal). Autistic participants outperformed non-autistic participants on abstract spatial tests. Non-autistic participants did not outperform autistic participants on any of the three domains (spatial, numerical, and verbal) or at either of the two reasoning levels (concrete and abstract), suggesting similarity in abilities between autistic and non-autistic individuals, with abstract spatial reasoning as an autistic strength. PMID:23533615

Uncertainty measurement in the homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieisson Pivoto

2016-04-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The study aimed to i quantify the measurement uncertainty in the physical tests of rice and beans for a hypothetical defect, ii verify whether homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification tests of rice and beans is effective to reduce the measurement uncertainty of the process and iii determine whether the increase in size of beans sample increases accuracy and reduces measurement uncertainty in a significant way. Hypothetical defects in rice and beans with different damage levels were simulated according to the testing methodology determined by the Normative Ruling of each product. The homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans are not effective, transferring to the final test result a high measurement uncertainty. The sample size indicated by the Normative Ruling did not allow an appropriate homogenization and should be increased.

Comprehensive analysis of proton range uncertainties related to patient stopping-power-ratio estimation using the stoichiometric calibration

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ming; Zhu, X. Ronald; Park, Peter C.; Titt, Uwe; Mohan, Radhe; Virshup, Gary; Clayton, James E.; Dong, Lei

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting proton stopping-power-ratio (SPR) estimations and range uncertainties in proton therapy planning using the standard stoichiometric calibration. The SPR uncertainties were grouped into five categories according to their origins and then estimated based on previously published reports or measurements. For the first time, the impact of tissue composition variations on SPR estimation was assessed and the uncertainty estimates of each category were determined for low-density (lung), soft, and high-density (bone) tissues. A composite, 95th percentile water-equivalent-thickness uncertainty was calculated from multiple beam directions in 15 patients with various types of cancer undergoing proton therapy. The SPR uncertainties (1σ) were quite different (ranging from 1.6% to 5.0%) in different tissue groups, although the final combined uncertainty (95th percentile) for different treatment sites was fairly consistent at 3.0-3.4%, primarily because soft tissue is the dominant tissue type in the human body. The dominant contributing factor for uncertainties in soft tissues was the degeneracy of Hounsfield numbers in the presence of tissue composition variations. To reduce the overall uncertainties in SPR estimation, the use of dual-energy computed tomography is suggested. The values recommended in this study based on typical treatment sites and a small group of patients roughly agree with the commonly referenced value (3.5%) used for margin design. By using tissue-specific range uncertainties, one could estimate the beam-specific range margin by accounting for different types and amounts of tissues along a beam, which may allow for customization of range uncertainty for each beam direction.

Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwon Sik Kim

2003-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

Grounding abstractness: Abstract concepts and the activation of the mouth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna M Borghi

2016-10-01

Full Text Available One key issue for theories of cognition is how abstract concepts, such as freedom, are represented. According to the WAT (Words As social Tools proposal, abstract concepts activate both sensorimotor and linguistic/social information, and their acquisition modality involves the linguistic experience more than the acquisition of concrete concepts. We report an experiment in which participants were presented with abstract and concrete definitions followed by concrete and abstract target-words. When the definition and the word matched, participants were required to press a key, either with the hand or with the mouth. Response times and accuracy were recorded. As predicted, we found that abstract definitions and abstract words yielded slower responses and more errors compared to concrete definitions and concrete words. More crucially, there was an interaction between the target-words and the effector used to respond (hand, mouth. While responses with the mouth were overall slower, the advantage of the hand over the mouth responses was more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts. The results are in keeping with grounded and embodied theories of cognition and support the WAT proposal, according to which abstract concepts evoke linguistic-social information, hence activate the mouth. The mechanisms underlying the mouth activation with abstract concepts (re-enactment of acquisition experience, or re-explanation of the word meaning, possibly through inner talk are discussed. To our knowledge this is the first behavioral study demonstrating with real words that the advantage of the hand over the mouth is more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts, likely because of the activation of linguistic information with abstract concepts.

Fission yield covariance generation and uncertainty propagation through fission pulse decay heat calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiorito, L.; Diez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Stankovskiy, A.; Van den Eynde, G.; Labeau, P.E.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Fission yield data and uncertainty comparison between major nuclear data libraries. • Fission yield covariance generation through Bayesian technique. • Study of the effect of fission yield correlations on decay heat calculations. • Covariance information contribute to reduce fission pulse decay heat uncertainty. - Abstract: Fission product yields are fundamental parameters in burnup/activation calculations and the impact of their uncertainties was widely studied in the past. Evaluations of these uncertainties were released, still without covariance data. Therefore, the nuclear community expressed the need of full fission yield covariance matrices to be able to produce inventory calculation results that take into account the complete uncertainty data. State-of-the-art fission yield data and methodologies for fission yield covariance generation were researched in this work. Covariance matrices were generated and compared to the original data stored in the library. Then, we focused on the effect of fission yield covariance information on fission pulse decay heat results for thermal fission of 235 U. Calculations were carried out using different libraries and codes (ACAB and ALEPH-2) after introducing the new covariance values. Results were compared with those obtained with the uncertainty data currently provided by the libraries. The uncertainty quantification was performed first with Monte Carlo sampling and then compared with linear perturbation. Indeed, correlations between fission yields strongly affect the uncertainty of decay heat. Eventually, a sensitivity analysis of fission product yields to fission pulse decay heat was performed in order to provide a full set of the most sensitive nuclides for such a calculation

Determination of uncertainties in energy and exergy analysis of a power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ege, Ahmet; Şahin, Hacı Mehmet

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy and exergy efficiency uncertainties in a large thermal power plant examined. • Sensitivity analysis shows importance of basic measurements on efficiency analysis. • A quick and practical approach is provided for determining efficiency uncertainties. • Extreme case analysis characterizes maximum possible boundaries of uncertainties. • Uncertainty determination in a plant is a dynamic process with real data. - Abstract: In this study, energy and exergy efficiency uncertainties of a large scale lignite fired power plant cycle and various measurement parameter sensitivities were investigated for five different design power outputs (100%, 85%, 80%, 60% and 40%) and with real data of the plant. For that purpose a black box method was employed considering coal flow with Lower Heating Value (LHV) as a single input and electricity produced as a single output of the plant. The uncertainty of energy and exergy efficiency of the plant was evaluated with this method by applying sensitivity analysis depending on the effect of measurement parameters such as LHV, coal mass flow rate, cell generator output voltage/current. In addition, an extreme case analysis was investigated to determine the maximum range of the uncertainties. Results of the black box method showed that uncertainties varied between 1.82–1.98% for energy efficiency and 1.32–1.43% for exergy efficiency of the plant at an operating power level of 40–100% of full power. It was concluded that LHV determination was the most important uncertainty source of energy and exergy efficiency of the plant. The uncertainties of the extreme case analysis were determined between 2.30% and 2.36% for energy efficiency while 1.66% and 1.70% for exergy efficiency for 40–100% power output respectively. Proposed method was shown to be an approach for understanding major uncertainties as well as effects of some measurement parameters in a large scale thermal power plant

NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Brucker, Ludovic; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Markus, Thorsten; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2014-01-01

Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than

Partitioning Uncertainty In Aboveground Carbon Density Estimates: Relative Contributions From Lidar and Forest Inventory In The Brazilian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, P.; Keller, M. M.; Morton, D. C.

2016-12-01

Carbon accounting for REDD+ requires knowledge of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks. Degradation is more difficult to detect than deforestation so SilvaCarbon, an US inter-agency effort, has set a priority to better characterize forest degradation effects on carbon loss. By combining information from forest inventory and lidar data products, impacts of deforestation, degradation, and associated changes in forest carbon stocks can be more accurately characterized across space. Our approach employs a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework where the assimilation of information from multiple sources is accomplished using a change of support (COS) technique. The COS formulation allows data from multiple spatial resolutions to be assimilated into an intermediate resolution. This approach is being applied in Paragominas, a jurisdiction in the eastern Brazilian Amazon with a high proportion of logged and burned degraded forests where political change has opened the way for REDD+. We build on a long history of research including our extensive studies of logging damage. Our primary objective is to quantify above-ground carbon stocks and corresponding uncertainty in a spatially explicit manner. A secondary objective is to quantify the relative contribution of lower level data products to the overall uncertainty, allowing for more focused subsequent data collection in the context of uncertainty reduction. This approach provides a mechanism to assimilate information from multiple sources to produce spatially-explicit maps of carbon stocks and changes with corresponding spatially explicit maps of uncertainty. Importantly, this approach also provides a mechanism that can be used to assess the value of information from specific data products.

Uncertainty in RELAP5/MOD3.2 calculations for interfacial drag in downward two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, Collin; Schlegel, Joshua P.; Hibiki, Takashi; Ishii, Mamoru; Kinoshita, Ikuo

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainty propagation is key for best estimate code reliability. • Uncertainty in drift flux correlations used to evaluate uncertainty in interfacial drag. • Bias and error have been compared for various models. - Abstract: RELAP5/MOD3.2 is a thermal-hydraulic system analysis code used to predict the response of nuclear reactor coolant systems in the event of certain accident scenarios. It is important that RELAP and other system analysis codes are able to accurately predict various two-phase flow phenomena, particularly the interfacial transfers between the liquid and gas phases. It is also important to understand how much uncertainty exists in these predictions due to uncertainties in the constitutive relations used to close the two-fluid model. In this paper, the uncertainty in the interfacial drag calculated by RELAP5/MOD3.2 due to errors in the drift-flux models used to close the model is evaluated and compared to the correlation developed by Goda et al. (2003). The case of downward flow is considered due to the importance of co-current and counter-current downward flow for predicting behavior in the downcomer of reactor systems during small-break Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCAs) in nuclear reactor systems. The overall uncertainty in the interfacial force calculations due to error in the distribution parameter models were found to have a bias of +8.1% and error of 20.1% for the models used in RELAP5, and a bias of −30.8% and error of 23.1% for the correlation of Goda et al. (2003). However this analysis neglects the effects of compensating errors in the drift-flux parameters, as the drift velocity is assumed to be perfectly accurate. More physically meaningful results could be obtained if the distribution parameter and drift velocity were calculated directly from local phase concentration and velocity measurements, however no studies were available which included all of this information.

The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

2009-10-01

Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

Uncertainty analysis for the assembly and core simulation of BEAVRS at the HZP conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wan, Chenghui [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Cao, Liangzhi, E-mail: caolz@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Wu, Hongchun [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Shen, Wei [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

2017-04-15

Highlights: • Uncertainty analysis has been completed based on the “two-step” scheme. • Uncertainty analysis has been performed to BEAVRS at HZP. • For lattice calculations, the few-group constant’s uncertainty was quantified. • For core simulation, uncertainties of k{sub eff} and power distributions were quantified. - Abstract: Based on the “two-step” scheme for the reactor-physics calculations, the capability of uncertainty analysis for the core simulations has been implemented in the UNICORN code, an in-house code for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the reactor-physics calculations. Applying the statistical sampling method, the nuclear-data uncertainties can be propagated to the important predictions of the core simulations. The uncertainties of the few-group constants introduced by the uncertainties of the multigroup microscopic cross sections are quantified first for the lattice calculations; the uncertainties of the few-group constants are then propagated to the core multiplication factor and core power distributions for the core simulations. Up to now, our in-house lattice code NECP-CACTI and the neutron-diffusion solver NECP-VIOLET have been implemented in UNICORN for the steady-state core simulations based on the “two-step” scheme. With NECP-CACTI and NECP-VIOLET, the modeling and simulation of the steady-state BEAVRS benchmark problem at the HZP conditions was performed, and the results were compared with those obtained by CASMO-4E. Based on the modeling and simulation, the UNICORN code has been applied to perform the uncertainty analysis for BAEVRS at HZP. The uncertainty results of the eigenvalues and two-group constants for the lattice calculations and the multiplication factor and the power distributions for the steady-state core simulations are obtained and analyzed in detail.

Uncertainty analysis for the assembly and core simulation of BEAVRS at the HZP conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Shen, Wei

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainty analysis has been completed based on the “two-step” scheme. • Uncertainty analysis has been performed to BEAVRS at HZP. • For lattice calculations, the few-group constant’s uncertainty was quantified. • For core simulation, uncertainties of k_e_f_f and power distributions were quantified. - Abstract: Based on the “two-step” scheme for the reactor-physics calculations, the capability of uncertainty analysis for the core simulations has been implemented in the UNICORN code, an in-house code for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the reactor-physics calculations. Applying the statistical sampling method, the nuclear-data uncertainties can be propagated to the important predictions of the core simulations. The uncertainties of the few-group constants introduced by the uncertainties of the multigroup microscopic cross sections are quantified first for the lattice calculations; the uncertainties of the few-group constants are then propagated to the core multiplication factor and core power distributions for the core simulations. Up to now, our in-house lattice code NECP-CACTI and the neutron-diffusion solver NECP-VIOLET have been implemented in UNICORN for the steady-state core simulations based on the “two-step” scheme. With NECP-CACTI and NECP-VIOLET, the modeling and simulation of the steady-state BEAVRS benchmark problem at the HZP conditions was performed, and the results were compared with those obtained by CASMO-4E. Based on the modeling and simulation, the UNICORN code has been applied to perform the uncertainty analysis for BAEVRS at HZP. The uncertainty results of the eigenvalues and two-group constants for the lattice calculations and the multiplication factor and the power distributions for the steady-state core simulations are obtained and analyzed in detail.

Measurement Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Michael

Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

Uncertainty Analysis of RBMK-Related Experimental Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbonas, Rolandas; Kaliatka, Algirdas; Liaukonis, Mindaugas

2002-01-01

An attempt to validate state-of-the-art thermal hydraulic code ATHLET (GRS, Germany) on the basis of E-108 test facility was made. Originally this code was developed and validated for different type reactors than RBMK. Since state-of-art thermal hydraulic codes are widely used for simulation of RBMK reactors, further codes' implementation and validation is required. The phenomena associated with channel type flow instabilities and CHF were found to be an important step in the frame of the overall effort of state-of-the-art validation and application for RBMK reactors. In the paper one-channel approach analysis is presented. Thus, the oscillatory behaviour of the system was not detected. The results show dependence on the nodalization used in the heated channels, initial and boundary conditions and code selected models. It is shown that the code is able to predict a sudden heat structure temperature excursion, when critical heat flux is approached. GRS developed uncertainty and sensitivity methodology was employed in the analysis. (authors)

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

2013-11-15

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

2013-01-01

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

Dynamics of entropic uncertainty for atoms immersed in thermal fluctuating massless scalar field

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhiming

2018-04-01

In this article, the dynamics of quantum memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relation for two atoms immersed in a thermal bath of fluctuating massless scalar field is investigated. The master equation that governs the system evolution process is derived. It is found that the mixedness is closely associated with entropic uncertainty. For equilibrium state, the tightness of uncertainty vanishes. For the initial maximum entangled state, the tightness of uncertainty undergoes a slight increase and then declines to zero with evolution time. It is found that temperature can increase the uncertainty, but two-atom separation does not always increase the uncertainty. The uncertainty evolves to different relatively stable values for different temperatures and converges to a fixed value for different two-atom distances with evolution time. Furthermore, weak measurement reversal is employed to control the entropic uncertainty.

Perseveration induces dissociative uncertainty in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Giele, Catharina L; van den Hout, Marcel A; Engelhard, Iris M; Dek, Eliane C P; Toffolo, Marieke B J; Cath, Danielle C

2016-09-01

Obsessive compulsive (OC)-like perseveration paradoxically increases feelings of uncertainty. We studied whether the underlying mechanism between perseveration and uncertainty is a reduced accessibility of meaning ('semantic satiation'). OCD patients (n = 24) and matched non-clinical controls (n = 24) repeated words 2 (non-perseveration) or 20 times (perseveration). They decided whether this word was related to another target word. Speed of relatedness judgments and feelings of dissociative uncertainty were measured. The effects of real-life perseveration on dissociative uncertainty were tested in a smaller subsample of the OCD group (n = 9). Speed of relatedness judgments was not affected by perseveration. However, both groups reported more dissociative uncertainty after perseveration compared to non-perseveration, which was higher in OCD patients. Patients reported more dissociative uncertainty after 'clinical' perseveration compared to non-perseveration.. Both parts of this study are limited by some methodological issues and a small sample size. Although the mechanism behind 'perseveration → uncertainty' is still unclear, results suggest that the effects of perseveration are counterproductive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Odors and Air Pollution: A Bibliography with Abstracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. Office of Air Programs.

The annotated bibliography presents a compilation of abstracts which deal with odors as they relate to air pollution. The abstracts are arranged within the following categories: Emission sources; Control methods; Measurement methods; Air quality measurements; Atmospheric interaction; Basic science and technology; Effects-human health;…

Stand-alone core sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of ALFRED from Monte Carlo simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pérez-Valseca, A.-D.; Espinosa-Paredes, G.; François, J.L.; Vázquez Rodríguez, A.; Martín-del-Campo, C.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation. • Sensitivity analysis of Lead Fast Reactor (LFR). • Uncertainty and regression analysis of LFR. • 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%. • 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature the response is 1.87% in power. - Abstract: The aim of this paper is the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a Lead-Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) based on Monte Carlo simulation of sizes up to 2000. The methodology developed in this work considers the uncertainty of sensitivities and uncertainty of output variables due to a single-input-variable variation. The Advanced Lead fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED) is analyzed to determine the behavior of the essential parameters due to effects of mass flow and temperature of liquid lead. The ALFRED core mathematical model developed in this work is fully transient, which takes into account the heat transfer in an annular fuel pellet design, the thermo-fluid in the core, and the neutronic processes, which are modeled with point kinetic with feedback fuel temperature and expansion effects. The sensitivity evaluated in terms of the relative standard deviation (RSD) showed that for 10% change in the core inlet flow, the response in thermal power change is 0.58%, and for 2.5% change in the inlet lead temperature is 1.87%. The regression analysis with mass flow rate as the predictor variable showed statistically valid cubic correlations for neutron flux and linear relationship neutron flux as a function of the lead temperature. No statistically valid correlation was observed for the reactivity as a function of the mass flow rate and for the lead temperature. These correlations are useful for the study, analysis, and design of any LFR.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlberg, Olof.

1989-01-01

This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

The role of swift relationship and institutional structures in uncertainty reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, Q.; Ou, Carol; Davison, R.M.

2016-01-01

Uncertainty has been regarded as the most prominent barrier in ecommerce. However, how communication between buyers and seller contributes to a reduction in uncertainty is under-investigated. Integrating uncertainty reduction theory and relational contract theory, we develop a model that explain how

EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schreiner, R.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this work is to develop the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, as directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a). This abstraction is the conceptual model that will be used to determine the rate of release of radionuclides from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ) in the total system performance assessment-license application (TSPA-LA). In particular, this model will be used to quantify the time-dependent radionuclide releases from a failed waste package (WP) and their subsequent transport through the EBS to the emplacement drift wall/UZ interface. The development of this conceptual model will allow Performance Assessment Operations (PAO) and its Engineered Barrier Performance Department to provide a more detailed and complete EBS flow and transport abstraction. The results from this conceptual model will allow PA0 to address portions of the key technical issues (KTIs) presented in three NRC Issue Resolution Status Reports (IRSRs): (1) the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (ENFE), Revision 2 (NRC 1999a), (2) the Container Life and Source Term (CLST), Revision 2 (NRC 1999b), and (3) the Thermal Effects on Flow (TEF), Revision 1 (NRC 1998). The conceptual model for flow and transport in the EBS will be referred to as the ''EBS RT Abstraction'' in this analysis/modeling report (AMR). The scope of this abstraction and report is limited to flow and transport processes. More specifically, this AMR does not discuss elements of the TSPA-SR and TSPA-LA that relate to the EBS but are discussed in other AMRs. These elements include corrosion processes, radionuclide solubility limits, waste form dissolution rates and concentrations of colloidal particles that are generally represented as boundary conditions or input parameters for the EBS RT Abstraction. In effect, this AMR provides the algorithms for transporting radionuclides using the flow geometry and radionuclide concentrations determined by other

Reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in Monte Carlo-based treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chetty, Indrin J.; Rosu, Mihaela; Kessler, Marc L.; Fraass, Benedick A.; Haken, Randall K. ten; Kong, Feng-Ming; McShan, Daniel L.

2006-01-01

Purpose: To investigate methods of reporting and analyzing statistical uncertainties in doses to targets and normal tissues in Monte Carlo (MC)-based treatment planning. Methods and Materials: Methods for quantifying statistical uncertainties in dose, such as uncertainty specification to specific dose points, or to volume-based regions, were analyzed in MC-based treatment planning for 5 lung cancer patients. The effect of statistical uncertainties on target and normal tissue dose indices was evaluated. The concept of uncertainty volume histograms for targets and organs at risk was examined, along with its utility, in conjunction with dose volume histograms, in assessing the acceptability of the statistical precision in dose distributions. The uncertainty evaluation tools were extended to four-dimensional planning for application on multiple instances of the patient geometry. All calculations were performed using the Dose Planning Method MC code. Results: For targets, generalized equivalent uniform doses and mean target doses converged at 150 million simulated histories, corresponding to relative uncertainties of less than 2% in the mean target doses. For the normal lung tissue (a volume-effect organ), mean lung dose and normal tissue complication probability converged at 150 million histories despite the large range in the relative organ uncertainty volume histograms. For 'serial' normal tissues such as the spinal cord, large fluctuations exist in point dose relative uncertainties. Conclusions: The tools presented here provide useful means for evaluating statistical precision in MC-based dose distributions. Tradeoffs between uncertainties in doses to targets, volume-effect organs, and 'serial' normal tissues must be considered carefully in determining acceptable levels of statistical precision in MC-computed dose distributions

The special theory of Brownian relativity: equivalence principle for dynamic and static random paths and uncertainty relation for diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Mezzasalma, Stefano A

2007-03-15

The theoretical basis of a recent theory of Brownian relativity for polymer solutions is deepened and reexamined. After the problem of relative diffusion in polymer solutions is addressed, its two postulates are formulated in all generality. The former builds a statistical equivalence between (uncorrelated) timelike and shapelike reference frames, that is, among dynamical trajectories of liquid molecules and static configurations of polymer chains. The latter defines the "diffusive horizon" as the invariant quantity to work with in the special version of the theory. Particularly, the concept of universality in polymer physics corresponds in Brownian relativity to that of covariance in the Einstein formulation. Here, a "universal" law consists of a privileged observation, performed from the laboratory rest frame and agreeing with any diffusive reference system. From the joint lack of covariance and simultaneity implied by the Brownian Lorentz-Poincaré transforms, a relative uncertainty arises, in a certain analogy with quantum mechanics. It is driven by the difference between local diffusion coefficients in the liquid solution. The same transformation class can be used to infer Fick's second law of diffusion, playing here the role of a gauge invariance preserving covariance of the spacetime increments. An overall, noteworthy conclusion emerging from this view concerns the statistics of (i) static macromolecular configurations and (ii) the motion of liquid molecules, which would be much more related than expected.

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Payne, Mark; Barange, Manuel; Cheung, William W. L.

2016-01-01

with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability......Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated...... and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization...

New strategies for quantifying and propagating nuclear data uncertainty in CUSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Qiang; Zhang, Chunyan; Hao, Chen; Li, Fu; Wang, Dongyong; Yu, Yan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An efficient sampling method based on LHS combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion is proposed. • A code of generating multi-group covariance matrices has been developed. • The uncertainty and sensitivity results of CUSA agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. - Abstract: The uncertainties of nuclear cross sections are propagated to the key parameters of nuclear reactor core through transport calculation. The statistical sampling method can be used to quantify and propagate nuclear data uncertainty in nuclear reactor physics calculations. In order to use statistical sampling method two key technical problems, method of generating multi-group covariance matrices and sampling method, should be considered reasonably and efficiently. In this paper, a method of transforming nuclear cross section covariance matrix in multi-group form into users' group structures based on the flat-flux approximation has been studied in depth. And most notably, an efficient sampling method has been proposed, which is based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion. Based on those method, two modules named T-COCCO and GUIDE have been developed and have been successfully added into the code for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (CUSA). The new modules have been verified respectively. Numerical results for the TMI-1 pin-cell case are presented and compared to TSUNAMI-1D. The comparison of the results further support that the methods and the computational tool developed in this work can be used to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for nuclear cross sections.

Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

New strategies for quantifying and propagating nuclear data uncertainty in CUSA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Qiang; Zhang, Chunyan [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Hao, Chen, E-mail: haochen.heu@163.com [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); Li, Fu [Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology(INET), Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Nuclear Energy Technology, Key Laboratory of Advanced Reactor Engineering and Safety of Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, Beijing (China); Wang, Dongyong [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Yu, Yan [Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology Laboratory, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin (China)

2016-10-15

Highlights: • An efficient sampling method based on LHS combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion is proposed. • A code of generating multi-group covariance matrices has been developed. • The uncertainty and sensitivity results of CUSA agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. - Abstract: The uncertainties of nuclear cross sections are propagated to the key parameters of nuclear reactor core through transport calculation. The statistical sampling method can be used to quantify and propagate nuclear data uncertainty in nuclear reactor physics calculations. In order to use statistical sampling method two key technical problems, method of generating multi-group covariance matrices and sampling method, should be considered reasonably and efficiently. In this paper, a method of transforming nuclear cross section covariance matrix in multi-group form into users' group structures based on the flat-flux approximation has been studied in depth. And most notably, an efficient sampling method has been proposed, which is based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) combined with Cholesky decomposition conversion. Based on those method, two modules named T-COCCO and GUIDE have been developed and have been successfully added into the code for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (CUSA). The new modules have been verified respectively. Numerical results for the TMI-1 pin-cell case are presented and compared to TSUNAMI-1D. The comparison of the results further support that the methods and the computational tool developed in this work can be used to conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for nuclear cross sections.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

Using finite mixture models in thermal-hydraulics system code uncertainty analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlos, S., E-mail: scarlos@iqn.upv.es [Department d’Enginyeria Química i Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Sánchez, A. [Department d’Estadística Aplicada i Qualitat, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Ginestar, D. [Department de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Martorell, S. [Department d’Enginyeria Química i Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain)

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Best estimate codes simulation needs uncertainty quantification. • The output variables can present multimodal probability distributions. • The analysis of multimodal distribution is performed using finite mixture models. • Two methods to reconstruct output variable probability distribution are used. -- Abstract: Nuclear Power Plant safety analysis is mainly based on the use of best estimate (BE) codes that predict the plant behavior under normal or accidental conditions. As the BE codes introduce uncertainties due to uncertainty in input parameters and modeling, it is necessary to perform uncertainty assessment (UA), and eventually sensitivity analysis (SA), of the results obtained. These analyses are part of the appropriate treatment of uncertainties imposed by current regulation based on the adoption of the best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach. The most popular approach for uncertainty assessment, based on Wilks’ method, obtains a tolerance/confidence interval, but it does not completely characterize the output variable behavior, which is required for an extended UA and SA. However, the development of standard UA and SA impose high computational cost due to the large number of simulations needed. In order to obtain more information about the output variable and, at the same time, to keep computational cost as low as possible, there has been a recent shift toward developing metamodels (model of model), or surrogate models, that approximate or emulate complex computer codes. In this way, there exist different techniques to reconstruct the probability distribution using the information provided by a sample of values as, for example, the finite mixture models. In this paper, the Expectation Maximization and the k-means algorithms are used to obtain a finite mixture model that reconstructs the output variable probability distribution from data obtained with RELAP-5 simulations. Both methodologies have been applied to a separated

Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the nuclear fuel thermal behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulore, A., E-mail: antoine.boulore@cea.fr [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Struzik, C. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Fuel Research Department, 13108 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Gaudier, F. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (CEA), DEN, Systems and Structure Modeling Department, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

2012-12-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A complete quantitative method for uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis is applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2} is modeled as a random variable. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The first source of uncertainty is the linear heat rate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The second source of uncertainty is the thermal conductivity of the fuel. - Abstract: In the global framework of nuclear fuel behavior simulation, the response of the models describing the physical phenomena occurring during the irradiation in reactor is mainly conditioned by the confidence in the calculated temperature of the fuel. Amongst all parameters influencing the temperature calculation in our fuel rod simulation code (METEOR V2), several sources of uncertainty have been identified as being the most sensitive: thermal conductivity of UO{sub 2}, radial distribution of power in the fuel pellet, local linear heat rate in the fuel rod, geometry of the pellet and thermal transfer in the gap. Expert judgment and inverse methods have been used to model the uncertainty of these parameters using theoretical distributions and correlation matrices. Propagation of these uncertainties in the METEOR V2 code using the URANIE framework and a Monte-Carlo technique has been performed in different experimental irradiations of UO{sub 2} fuel. At every time step of the simulated experiments, we get a temperature statistical distribution which results from the initial distributions of the uncertain parameters. We then can estimate confidence intervals of the calculated temperature. In order to quantify the sensitivity of the calculated temperature to each of the uncertain input parameters and data, we have also performed a sensitivity analysis using the Sobol' indices at first order.

INVENTORY ABSTRACTION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragan, G.

2001-01-01

The purpose of the inventory abstraction, which has been prepared in accordance with a technical work plan (CRWMS M andO 2000e for/ICN--02 of the present analysis, and BSC 2001e for ICN 03 of the present analysis), is to: (1) Interpret the results of a series of relative dose calculations (CRWMS M andO 2000c, 2000f). (2) Recommend, including a basis thereof, a set of radionuclides that should be modeled in the Total System Performance Assessment in Support of the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) and the Total System Performance Assessment in Support of the Final Environmental Impact Statement (TSPA-FEIS). (3) Provide initial radionuclide inventories for the TSPA-SR and TSPA-FEIS models. (4) Answer the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)'s Issue Resolution Status Report ''Key Technical Issue: Container Life and Source Term'' (CLST IRSR) key technical issue (KTI): ''The rate at which radionuclides in SNF [spent nuclear fuel] are released from the EBS [engineered barrier system] through the oxidation and dissolution of spent fuel'' (NRC 1999, Subissue 3). The scope of the radionuclide screening analysis encompasses the period from 100 years to 10,000 years after the potential repository at Yucca Mountain is sealed for scenarios involving the breach of a waste package and subsequent degradation of the waste form as required for the TSPA-SR calculations. By extending the time period considered to one million years after repository closure, recommendations are made for the TSPA-FEIS. The waste forms included in the inventory abstraction are Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel (CSNF), DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel (DSNF), High-Level Waste (HLW), naval Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plutonium waste. The intended use of this analysis is in TSPA-SR and TSPA-FEIS. Based on the recommendations made here, models for release, transport, and possibly exposure will be developed for the isotopes that would be the highest contributors to the dose given a release

GOClonto: an ontological clustering approach for conceptualizing PubMed abstracts.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Hai-Tao; Borchert, Charles; Kim, Hong-Gee

2010-02-01

Concurrent with progress in biomedical sciences, an overwhelming of textual knowledge is accumulating in the biomedical literature. PubMed is the most comprehensive database collecting and managing biomedical literature. To help researchers easily understand collections of PubMed abstracts, numerous clustering methods have been proposed to group similar abstracts based on their shared features. However, most of these methods do not explore the semantic relationships among groupings of documents, which could help better illuminate the groupings of PubMed abstracts. To address this issue, we proposed an ontological clustering method called GOClonto for conceptualizing PubMed abstracts. GOClonto uses latent semantic analysis (LSA) and gene ontology (GO) to identify key gene-related concepts and their relationships as well as allocate PubMed abstracts based on these key gene-related concepts. Based on two PubMed abstract collections, the experimental results show that GOClonto is able to identify key gene-related concepts and outperforms the STC (suffix tree clustering) algorithm, the Lingo algorithm, the Fuzzy Ants algorithm, and the clustering based TRS (tolerance rough set) algorithm. Moreover, the two ontologies generated by GOClonto show significant informative conceptual structures.

Collected abstracts on particle beam diagnostic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hickok, R.L.

1979-01-01

This report contains a compilation of abstracts on work related to particle beam diagnostics for high temperature plasmas. The abstracts were gathered in early 1978 and represent the status of the various programs as of that date. It is not suggested that this is a comprehensive list of all the work that is going on in the development of particle beam diagnostics, but it does provide a representative view of the work in this field. For example, no abstracts were received from the U.S.S.R. even though they have considerable activity in particle beam diagnostics

Assessing Groundwater Model Uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohll, Greg; Pohlmann, Karl; Hassan, Ahmed; Chapman, Jenny; Mihevc, Todd

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study is to quantify the flow and transport model uncertainty for the Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA). Six parameters were identified as uncertain, including the specified head boundary conditions used in the flow model, the spatial distribution of the underlying welded tuff unit, effective porosity, sorption coefficients, matrix diffusion coefficient, and the geochemical release function which describes nuclear glass dissolution. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior statistical distributions for each of these parameters. Standard Monte Carlo techniques were used to sample from the parameter distributions to determine the full prediction uncertainty. Additional analysis is performed to determine the most cost-beneficial characterization activities. The maximum radius of the tritium and strontium-90 contaminant boundary was used as the output metric for evaluation of prediction uncertainty. The results indicate that combining all of the uncertainty in the parameters listed above propagates to a prediction uncertainty in the maximum radius of the contaminant boundary of 234 to 308 m and 234 to 302 m, for tritium and strontium-90, respectively. Although the uncertainty in the input parameters is large, the prediction uncertainty in the contaminant boundary is relatively small. The relatively small prediction uncertainty is primarily due to the small transport velocities such that large changes in the uncertain input parameters causes small changes in the contaminant boundary. This suggests that the model is suitable in terms of predictive capability for the contaminant boundary delineation

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Does Preference for Abstract Patterns Relate to Information Processing and Perceived Duration?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letizia Palumbo

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Repetitive prestimulation, in the form of click trains, is known to alter a wide range of cognitive and perceptual judgments. To date, no research has explored whether click trains also influence subjective preferences. This is plausible because preference is related to perceptual fluency and clicks may increase fluency, or, because preference is related to arousal and clicks may increase arousal. In Experiment 1, participants heard a click train, white noise, or silence through headphones and then saw an abstract symmetrical pattern on the screen for 0.5, 1, or 1.5 s. They rated the pattern on a 7-point scale. Click trains had no effect on preference ratings, although patterns that lasted longer were preferred. In Experiment 2, we again presented a click train, silence, or white noise but included both symmetrical and random patterns. Participants made both a duration and a preference judgment on every trial. Auditory click trains increased perceived duration, and symmetrical patterns were perceived as lasting longer than random patterns. Again there was no effect of auditory click trains on preference, and again patterns that were presented for longer were preferred. We conclude that click trains alter perceptual and cognitive processes, but not preferences. This helps clarify the nature of the click train effect and shows which predictions implicit in the existing literature are supported.

Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Julwan Hendry; Sony Tjahyani, D.T.; Ekariansyah, Andi Sofrany; Tjahjono, Hendro

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is to evaluate epistemic uncertainty in fuzzy fault tree analysis. • Fuzzy probabilities represent likelihood occurrences of all events in a fault tree. • A fuzzy multiplication rule quantifies epistemic uncertainty of minimal cut sets. • A fuzzy complement rule estimate epistemic uncertainty of the top event. • The proposed FPFTA has successfully evaluated the U.S. Combustion Engineering RPS. - Abstract: A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering systems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conventional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objective of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is performed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis

Effect of uncertainties on probabilistic-based design capacity of hydrosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Tung, Yeou-Koung

2018-02-01

Hydrosystems engineering designs involve analysis of hydrometric data (e.g., rainfall, floods) and use of hydrologic/hydraulic models, all of which contribute various degrees of uncertainty to the design process. Uncertainties in hydrosystem designs can be generally categorized into aleatory and epistemic types. The former arises from the natural randomness of hydrologic processes whereas the latter are due to knowledge deficiency in model formulation and model parameter specification. This study shows that the presence of epistemic uncertainties induces uncertainty in determining the design capacity. Hence, the designer needs to quantify the uncertainty features of design capacity to determine the capacity with a stipulated performance reliability under the design condition. Using detention basin design as an example, the study illustrates a methodological framework by considering aleatory uncertainty from rainfall and epistemic uncertainties from the runoff coefficient, curve number, and sampling error in design rainfall magnitude. The effects of including different items of uncertainty and performance reliability on the design detention capacity are examined. A numerical example shows that the mean value of the design capacity of the detention basin increases with the design return period and this relation is found to be practically the same regardless of the uncertainty types considered. The standard deviation associated with the design capacity, when subject to epistemic uncertainty, increases with both design frequency and items of epistemic uncertainty involved. It is found that the epistemic uncertainty due to sampling error in rainfall quantiles should not be ignored. Even with a sample size of 80 (relatively large for a hydrologic application) the inclusion of sampling error in rainfall quantiles resulted in a standard deviation about 2.5 times higher than that considering only the uncertainty of the runoff coefficient and curve number. Furthermore, the

Measurements of fusion neutron yields by neutron activation technique: Uncertainty due to the uncertainty on activation cross-sections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankunas, Gediminas, E-mail: gediminas.stankunas@lei.lt [Lithuanian Energy Institute, Laboratory of Nuclear Installation Safety, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas (Lithuania); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Batistoni, Paola [ENEA, Via E. Fermi, 45, 00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Sjöstrand, Henrik; Conroy, Sean [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, PO Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala (Sweden); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

2015-07-11

The neutron activation technique is routinely used in fusion experiments to measure the neutron yields. This paper investigates the uncertainty on these measurements as due to the uncertainties on dosimetry and activation reactions. For this purpose, activation cross-sections were taken from the International Reactor Dosimetry and Fusion File (IRDFF-v1.05) in 640 groups ENDF-6 format for several reactions of interest for both 2.5 and 14 MeV neutrons. Activation coefficients (reaction rates) have been calculated using the neutron flux spectra at JET vacuum vessel, both for DD and DT plasmas, calculated by MCNP in the required 640-energy group format. The related uncertainties for the JET neutron spectra are evaluated as well using the covariance data available in the library. These uncertainties are in general small, but not negligible when high accuracy is required in the determination of the fusion neutron yields.

Quantification of uncertainties of modeling and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Zhibo; Yin Jianwei

2012-01-01

The principles of Modeling and Simulation (M and S) is interpreted by a functional relation, from which the total uncertainties of M and S are identified and sorted to three parts considered to vary along with the conceptual models' parameters. According to the idea of verification and validation, the space of the parameters is parted to verified and applied domains, uncertainties in the verified domain are quantified by comparison between numerical and standard results, and those in the applied domain are quantified by a newly developed extrapolating method. Examples are presented to demonstrate and qualify the ideas aimed to build a framework to quantify the uncertainties of M and S. (authors)

Illness uncertainty and treatment motivation in type 2 diabetes patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Apóstolo, João Luís Alves; Viveiros, Catarina Sofia Castro; Nunes, Helena Isabel Ribeiro; Domingues, Helena Raquel Faustino

2007-01-01

To characterize the uncertainty in illness and the motivation for treatment and to evaluate the existing relation between these variables in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Descriptive, correlational study, using a sample of 62 individuals in diabetes consultation sessions. The Uncertainty Stress Scale and the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire were used. The individuals with type 2 diabetes present low levels of uncertainty in illness and a high motivation for treatment, with a stronger intrinsic than extrinsic motivation. A negative correlation was verified between the uncertainty in the face of the prognosis and treatment and the intrinsic motivation. These individuals are already adapted, acting according to the meanings they attribute to illness. Uncertainty can function as a threat, intervening negatively in the attribution of meaning to the events related to illness and in the process of adaptation and motivation to adhere to treatment. Intrinsic motivation seems to be essential to adhere to treatment.

Uncertainty evaluation of the kerma in the air, related to the active volume in the ionization chamber of concentric cylinders, by Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lo Bianco, A.S.; Oliveira, H.P.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P.

2009-01-01

To implant the primary standard of the magnitude kerma in the air for X-ray between 10 - 50 keV, the National Metrology Laboratory of Ionizing Radiations (LNMRI) must evaluate all the uncertainties of measurement related with Victtoren chamber. So, it was evaluated the uncertainty of the kerma in the air consequent of the inaccuracy in the active volume of the chamber using the calculation of Monte Carlo as a tool through the Penelope software

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis version 6.0 theory manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, Brian M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ebeida, Mohamed Salah [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eldred, Michael S [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jakeman, John Davis [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stephens, John Adam [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vigil, Dena M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wildey, Timothy Michael [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bohnhoff, William J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eddy, John P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hu, Kenneth T. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dalbey, Keith R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bauman, Lara E [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hough, Patricia Diane [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2014-05-01

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the Dakota software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of Dakota-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quanti cation, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of Dakota's iterative analysis capabilities.

Reliability constrained generation expansion planning with consideration of wind farms uncertainties in deregulated electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemmati, Reza; Hooshmand, Rahmat-Allah; Khodabakhshian, Amin

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Generation expansion planning is presented in deregulated electricity market. • Wind farm uncertainty is modeled in the problem. • The profit of each GENCO is maximized and also the safe operation of system is satisfied. • Salve sector is managed as an optimization programming and solved by using PSO technique. • Master sector is considered in pool market and Cournot model is used to simulate it. - Abstract: This paper addresses reliability constrained generation expansion planning (GEP) in the presence of wind farm uncertainty in deregulated electricity market. The proposed GEP aims at maximizing the expected profit of all generation companies (GENCOs), while considering security and reliability constraints such as reserve margin and loss of load expectation (LOLE). Wind farm uncertainty is also considered in the planning and GENCOs denote their planning in the presence of wind farm uncertainty. The uncertainty is modeled by probability distribution function (PDF) and Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) is used to insert uncertainty into the problem. The proposed GEP is a constrained, nonlinear, mixed-integer optimization programming and solved by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. In this paper, Electricity market structure is modeled as a pool market. Simulation results verify the effectiveness and validity of the proposed planning for maximizing GENCOs profit in the presence of wind farms uncertainties in electricity market

Abstracts of submitted papers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

The conference proceedings contain 152 abstracts of presented papers relating to various aspects of personnel dosimetry, the dosimetry of the working and living environment, various types of dosemeters and spectrometers, the use of radionuclides in various industrial fields, the migration of radionuclides on Czechoslovak territory after the Chernobyl accident, theoretical studies of some parameters of ionizing radiation detectors, and their calibration. (M.D.)

Qualitative uncertainty analysis in probabilistic safety assessment context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostol, M.; Constantin, M; Turcu, I.

2007-01-01

In Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) context, an uncertainty analysis is performed either to estimate the uncertainty in the final results (the risk to public health and safety) or to estimate the uncertainty in some intermediate quantities (the core damage frequency, the radionuclide release frequency or fatality frequency). The identification and evaluation of uncertainty are important tasks because they afford credit to the results and help in the decision-making process. Uncertainty analysis can be performed qualitatively or quantitatively. This paper performs a preliminary qualitative uncertainty analysis, by identification of major uncertainty in PSA level 1- level 2 interface and in the other two major procedural steps of a level 2 PSA i.e. the analysis of accident progression and of the containment and analysis of source term for severe accidents. One should mention that a level 2 PSA for a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) involves the evaluation and quantification of the mechanisms, amount and probabilities of subsequent radioactive material releases from the containment. According to NUREG 1150, an important task in source term analysis is fission products transport analysis. The uncertainties related to the isotopes distribution in CANDU NPP primary circuit and isotopes' masses transferred in the containment, using SOPHAEROS module from ASTEC computer code will be also presented. (authors)

Diagnostic uncertainty, guilt, mood, and disability in back pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Serbic, Danijela; Pincus, Tamar; Fife-Schaw, Chris; Dawson, Helen

2016-01-01

In the majority of patients a definitive cause for low back pain (LBP) cannot be established, and many patients report feeling uncertain about their diagnosis, accompanied by guilt. The relationship between diagnostic uncertainty, guilt, mood, and disability is currently unknown. This study tested 3 theoretical models to explore possible pathways between these factors. In Model 1, diagnostic uncertainty was hypothesized to correlate with pain-related guilt, which in turn would positively correlate with depression, anxiety and disability. Two alternative models were tested: (a) a path from depression and anxiety to guilt, from guilt to diagnostic uncertainty, and finally to disability; (b) a model in which depression and anxiety, and independently, diagnostic uncertainty, were associated with guilt, which in turn was associated with disability. Structural equation modeling was employed on data from 413 participants with chronic LBP. All 3 models showed a reasonable-to-good fit with the data, with the 2 alternative models providing marginally better fit indices. Guilt, and especially social guilt, was associated with disability in all 3 models. Diagnostic uncertainty was associated with guilt, but only moderately. Low mood was also associated with guilt. Two newly defined factors, pain related guilt and diagnostic uncertainty, appear to be linked to disability and mood in people with LBP. The causal path of these links cannot be established in this cross sectional study. However, pain-related guilt especially appears to be important, and future research should examine whether interventions directly targeting guilt improve outcomes. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

Science.gov (United States)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

2015-09-01

Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

Is the Abstract a Mere Teaser? Evaluating Generosity of Article Abstracts in the Environmental Sciences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liana Ermakova

2018-05-01

Full Text Available An abstract is not only a mirror of the full article; it also aims to draw attention to the most important information of the document it summarizes. Many studies have compared abstracts with full texts for their informativeness. In contrast to previous studies, we propose to investigate this relation based not only on the amount of information given by the abstract but also on its importance. The main objective of this paper is to introduce a new metric called GEM to measure the “generosity” or representativeness of an abstract. Schematically speaking, a generous abstract should have the best possible score of similarity for the sections important to the reader. Based on a questionnaire gathering information from 630 researchers, we were able to weight sections according to their importance. In our approach, seven sections were first automatically detected in the full text. The accuracy of this classification into sections was above 80% compared with a dataset of documents where sentences were assigned to sections by experts. Second, each section was weighted according to the questionnaire results. The GEM score was then calculated as a sum of weights of sections in the full text corresponding to sentences in the abstract normalized over the total sum of weights of sections in the full text. The correlation between GEM score and the mean of the scores assigned by annotators was higher than the correlation between scores from different experts. As a case study, the GEM score was calculated for 36,237 articles in environmental sciences (1930–2013 retrieved from the French ISTEX database. The main result was that GEM score has increased over time. Moreover, this trend depends on subject area and publisher. No correlation was found between GEM score and citation rate or open access status of articles. We conclude that abstracts are more generous in recent publications and cannot be considered as mere teasers. This research should be pursued

Instrument uncertainty predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

1991-07-01

The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

Uncertainty in aiming movements and its association to hand function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávia Priscila de Paiva Silva

2015-09-01

Full Text Available AbstractThe purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of the uncertainty of target location on the planning and execution of aiming movements performed towards the ipsilateral and contralateral directions by the right and left upper limbs. In addition, the association between the performance of aiming movements and the performance of functional manual tasks was investigated. Two tasks were proposed: with prior knowledge of the movement direction (simple reaction time or not (choice reaction time. The grip strength and manual dexterity were measured. The choice option in response (i.e. uncertainty influenced planning of the aiming movements, but not its execution, while movements performed towards the contralateral direction were worse in execution as compared to the ipsilateral direction. Manual dexterity was significantly correlated with reaction times, while the performance during movement execution was significantly correlated with handgrip/pinch strength.

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad, E-mail: pourgolmohammad@sut.ac.ir [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Hoseyni, Seyed Mojtaba [Building & Housing Research Center, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepanloo, Kamran [Nuclear Science and Technology Research Institute, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Existing uncertainty ranking methods prove inconsistent for TH applications. • Introduction of a new method for ranking sources of uncertainty in TH codes. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • The importance of parameters is calculated by a limited number of TH code executions. • Methodology is applied successfully on LOFT-LB1 test facility. - Abstract: In application to thermal–hydraulic calculations by system codes, sensitivity analysis plays an important role for managing the uncertainties of code output and risk analysis. Sensitivity analysis is also used to confirm the results of qualitative Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Several methodologies have been developed to address uncertainty importance assessment. Generally, uncertainty importance measures, mainly devised for the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications, are not affordable for computationally demanding calculations of the complex thermal–hydraulics (TH) system codes. In other words, for effective quantification of the degree of the contribution of each phenomenon to the total uncertainty of the output, a practical approach is needed by considering high computational burden of TH calculations. This study aims primarily to show the inefficiency of the existing approaches and then introduces a solution to cope with the challenges in this area by modification of variance-based uncertainty importance method. Important parameters are identified by the modified PIRT approach qualitatively then their uncertainty importance is quantified by a local derivative index. The proposed index is attractive from its practicality point of view on TH applications. It is capable of calculating the importance of parameters by a limited number of TH code executions. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on LOFT-LB1 test facility.

A practical sensitivity analysis method for ranking sources of uncertainty in thermal–hydraulics applications