WorldWideScience

Sample records for two-part growth model

  1. A two-part model for censored medical cost data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lu; Huang, Jie

    2007-10-15

    The two-part model is often used to analyse medical cost data which contain a large proportion of zero cost and are highly skewed with some large costs. The total medical costs over a period of time are often censored due to incomplete follow-up, making the analysis difficult as the censoring can be informative. We propose to apply the inverse probability weighting method on a two-part model to analyse right-censored cumulative medical costs with informative censoring. We also introduce a set of simple functionals based on the intermediate cost history to be applied with the efficiency augmentation technique. In addition, we propose a practical model-checking technique based on the cumulative residuals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. We use a data set on the cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related Medicare costs to illustrate our proposed method.

  2. Sample selection versus two-part models revisited: the case of female smoking and drinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madden, David

    2008-03-01

    There is a well-established debate between Heckman sample selection and two-part models in health econometrics, particularly when no obvious exclusion restrictions are available. Most of this debate has focussed on the application of these models to health care expenditure. This paper revisits the debate in the context of female smoking and drinking, and evaluates the two approaches on three grounds: theoretical, practical and statistical. The two-part model is generally favoured but it is stressed that this comparison should be carried out on a case-by-case basis.

  3. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  4. A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence N Kazembe

    Full Text Available Despite remarkable gains in life expectancy and declining mortality in the 21st century, in many places mostly in developing countries, adult mortality has increased in part due to HIV/AIDS or continued abject poverty levels. Moreover many factors including behavioural, socio-economic and demographic variables work simultaneously to impact on risk of mortality. Understanding risk factors of adult mortality is crucial towards designing appropriate public health interventions. In this paper we proposed a structured additive two-part random effects regression model for adult mortality data. Our proposal assumed two processes: (i whether death occurred in the household (prevalence part, and (ii number of reported deaths, if death did occur (severity part. The proposed model specification therefore consisted of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM with correlated random effects that permitted structured and unstructured spatial components at regional level. Specifically, the first part assumed a GLMM with a logistic link and the second part explored a count model following either a Poisson or negative binomial distribution. The model was used to analyse adult mortality data of 25,793 individuals from the 2006/2007 Namibian DHS data. Inference is based on the Bayesian framework with appropriate priors discussed.

  5. Use of two-part regression calibration model to correct for measurement error in episodically consumed foods in a single-replicate study design: EPIC case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George O Agogo

    Full Text Available In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

  6. Marijuana Use among Juvenile Arrestees: A Two-Part Growth Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembo, Richard; Wareham, Jennifer; Greenbaum, Paul E.; Childs, Kristina; Schmeidler, James

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the impact of sociodemographic characteristics and psychosocial factors on the probability and frequency of marijuana use and, for youths initiating use, on their frequency of use over four time points. The sample consists of 278 justice-involved youths completing at least one of three follow-up interviews as part of a…

  7. Marijuana Use among Juvenile Arrestees: A Two-Part Growth Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembo, Richard; Wareham, Jennifer; Greenbaum, Paul E.; Childs, Kristina; Schmeidler, James

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the impact of sociodemographic characteristics and psychosocial factors on the probability and frequency of marijuana use and, for youths initiating use, on their frequency of use over four time points. The sample consists of 278 justice-involved youths completing at least one of three follow-up interviews as part of a…

  8. Modelling asymmetric growth in crowded plant communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2010-01-01

    A class of models that may be used to quantify the effect of size-asymmetric competition in crowded plant communities by estimating a community specific degree of size-asymmetric growth for each species in the community is suggested. The model consists of two parts: an individual size-asymmetric ......A class of models that may be used to quantify the effect of size-asymmetric competition in crowded plant communities by estimating a community specific degree of size-asymmetric growth for each species in the community is suggested. The model consists of two parts: an individual size...

  9. Two-part set systems

    CERN Document Server

    Gerbner, Dániel; Lemons, Nathan; Mubayi, Dhruv; Palmer, Cory; Patkós, Balázs

    2011-01-01

    The two part Sperner theorem of Katona and Kleitman states that if $X$ is an $n$-element set with partition $X_1 \\cup X_2$, and $\\cF$ is a family of subsets of $X$ such that no two sets $A, B \\in \\cF$ satisfy $A \\subset B$ (or $B \\subset A$) and $A \\cap X_i=B \\cap X_i$ for some $i$, then $|\\cF| \\le {n \\choose \\lfloor n/2 \\rfloor}$. We consider variations of this problem by replacing the Sperner property with the intersection property and considering families that satisfiy various combinations of these properties on one or both parts $X_1$, $X_2$. Along the way, we prove the following new result which may be of independent interest: let $\\cF, \\cG$ be families of subsets of an $n$-element set such that $\\cF$ and $\\cG$ are both intersecting and cross-Sperner, meaning that if $A \\in \\cF$ and $B \\in \\cG$, then $A \

  10. Rethinking cell growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafri, Moshe; Metzl-Raz, Eyal; Jonas, Felix; Barkai, Naama

    2016-11-01

    The minimal description of a growing cell consists of self-replicating ribosomes translating the cellular proteome. While neglecting all other cellular components, this model provides key insights into the control and limitations of growth rate. It shows, for example, that growth rate is maximized when ribosomes work at full capacity, explains the linear relation between growth rate and the ribosome fraction of the proteome and defines the maximal possible growth rate. This ribosome-centered model also highlights the challenge of coordinating cell growth with related processes such as cell division or nutrient production. Coordination is promoted when ribosomes don't translate at maximal capacity, as it allows escaping strict exponential growth. Recent data support the notion that multiple cellular processes limit growth. In particular, increasing transcriptional demand may be as deleterious as increasing translational demand, depending on growth conditions. Consistent with the idea of trade-off, cells may forgo maximal growth to enable more efficient interprocess coordination and faster adaptation to changing conditions. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Stochastic ontogenetic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; West, D.

    2012-02-01

    An ontogenetic growth model (OGM) for a thermodynamically closed system is generalized to satisfy both the first and second law of thermodynamics. The hypothesized stochastic ontogenetic growth model (SOGM) is shown to entail the interspecies allometry relation by explicitly averaging the basal metabolic rate and the total body mass over the steady-state probability density for the total body mass (TBM). This is the first derivation of the interspecies metabolic allometric relation from a dynamical model and the asymptotic steady-state distribution of the TBM is fit to data and shown to be inverse power law.

  12. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  13. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  14. Availability growth modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendelberger, J.R.

    1998-12-01

    In reliability modeling, the term availability is used to represent the fraction of time that a process is operating successfully. Several different definitions have been proposed for different types of availability. One commonly used measure of availability is cumulative availability, which is defined as the ratio of the amount of time that a system is up and running to the total elapsed time. During the startup phase of a process, cumulative availability may be treated as a growth process. A procedure for modeling cumulative availability as a function of time is proposed. Estimates of other measures of availability are derived from the estimated cumulative availability function. The use of empirical Bayes techniques to improve the resulting estimates is also discussed.

  15. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  16. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  17. Modeling microbial growth and dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esser, Daniel S; Leveau, Johan H J; Meyer, Katrin M

    2015-11-01

    Modeling has become an important tool for widening our understanding of microbial growth in the context of applied microbiology and related to such processes as safe food production, wastewater treatment, bioremediation, or microbe-mediated mining. Various modeling techniques, such as primary, secondary and tertiary mathematical models, phenomenological models, mechanistic or kinetic models, reactive transport models, Bayesian network models, artificial neural networks, as well as agent-, individual-, and particle-based models have been applied to model microbial growth and activity in many applied fields. In this mini-review, we summarize the basic concepts of these models using examples and applications from food safety and wastewater treatment systems. We further review recent developments in other applied fields focusing on models that explicitly include spatial relationships. Using these examples, we point out the conceptual similarities across fields of application and encourage the combined use of different modeling techniques in hybrid models as well as their cross-disciplinary exchange. For instance, pattern-oriented modeling has its origin in ecology but may be employed to parameterize microbial growth models when experimental data are scarce. Models could also be used as virtual laboratories to optimize experimental design analogous to the virtual ecologist approach. Future microbial growth models will likely become more complex to benefit from the rich toolbox that is now available to microbial growth modelers.

  18. Modeling tin whisker growth.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weinberger, Christopher Robert

    2013-08-01

    Tin, lead, and lead-tin solders are the most commonly used solders due to their low melting temperatures. However, due to the toxicity problems, lead must now be removed from solder materials. This has lead to the re-emergence of the issue of tin whisker growth. Tin whiskers are a microelectronic packaging issue because they can lead to shorts if they grow to sufficient length. However, the cause of tin whisker growth is still not well understood and there is lack of robust methods to determine when and if whiskering will be a problem. This report summarizes some of the leading theories on whisker growth and attempts to provide some ideas towards establishing the role microstructure plays in whisker growth.

  19. Modeling tin whisker growth.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weinberger, Christopher Robert

    2013-08-01

    Tin, lead, and lead-tin solders are the most commonly used solders due to their low melting temperatures. However, due to the toxicity problems, lead must now be removed from solder materials. This has lead to the re-emergence of the issue of tin whisker growth. Tin whiskers are a microelectronic packaging issue because they can lead to shorts if they grow to sufficient length. However, the cause of tin whisker growth is still not well understood and there is lack of robust methods to determine when and if whiskering will be a problem. This report summarizes some of the leading theories on whisker growth and attempts to provide some ideas towards establishing the role microstructure plays in whisker growth.

  20. Towards Sustainable Growth Business Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamp-Roelands, N.; Balkenende, J.P.; Van Ommen, P.

    2012-03-15

    The Dutch Sustainable Growth Coalition (DSGC) has the following objectives: The DSGC aims to pro-actively drive sustainable growth business models along three lines: (1) Shape. DSGC member companies aim to connect economic profitability with environmental and social progress on the basis of integrated sustainable growth business models; (2) Share. DSGC member companies aim for joint advocacy of sustainable growth business models both internationally and nationally; and (3) Stimulate. DSGC member companies aim to stimulate and influence the policy debate on enabling sustainable growth - with a view to finding solutions to the environmental and social challenges we are facing. This is their first report. The vision, actions and mission of DSGC are documented in the Manifesto in Chapter 2 of this publication. Chapter 3 contains an overview of key features of an integrated sustainable growth business model and the roadmap towards such a model. In Chapter 4, project examples of DSGC members are presented, providing insight into the hands-on reality of implementing the good practices. Chapter 5 offers an overview of how the Netherlands provides an enabling environment for sustainable growth business models. Chapter 6 offers the key conclusions.

  1. MODELLING SOCIAL CAPITAL AND GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    Chou, Yuan K.

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes three theoretical growth models incorporating social capital, based on varied expositions on the concept of social capital and the empirical evidence gathered to date. In these models, social capital impacts growth by assisting in the accumulation of human capital, by affecting financial development through its effects on collective trust and social norms, and by facilitating networking between firms that result in the creation and diffusion of business and technological i...

  2. Czochralski crystal growth: Modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudukovic, M. P.; Ramachandran, P. A.; Srivastava, R. K.; Dorsey, D.

    1986-01-01

    The modeling study of Czochralski (Cz) crystal growth is reported. The approach was to relate in a quantitative manner, using models based on first priniciples, crystal quality to operating conditions and geometric variables. The finite element method is used for all calculations.

  3. Model uncertainty in growth empirics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prüfer, P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high gro

  4. Modeling growth in biological materials

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gareth Wyn; Chapman, S. Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    The biomechanical modeling of growing tissues has recently become an area of intense interest. In particular, the interplay between growth patterns and mechanical stress is of great importance, with possible applications to arterial mechanics, embryo morphogenesis, tumor development, and bone remodeling. This review aims to give an overview of the theories that have been used to model these phenomena, categorized according to whether the tissue is considered as a continuum object or a collect...

  5. Approximation of the two-part MDL code

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaans, P.; Vitányi, P.M.B.

    2009-01-01

    Approximation of the optimal two-part minimum description length (MDL) code for given data, through successive monotonically length-decreasing two-part MDL codes, has the following properties: (i) computation of each step may take arbitrarily long; (ii) we may not know when we reach the optimum, or

  6. Approximation of the two-part MDL code

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Adriaans; P.M.B. Vitányi (Paul)

    2009-01-01

    htmlabstractApproximation of the optimal two-part minimum description length (MDL) code for given data, through successive monotonically length-decreasing two-part MDL codes, has the following properties: (i) computation of each step may take arbitrarily long; (ii) we may not know when we reach the

  7. Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects

    OpenAIRE

    Maino, James L.; Kearney, Michael R.

    2015-01-01

    Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compare...

  8. Modeling turkey growth with the relative growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, K; Potts, W J; Bacon, W L; Nestor, K E

    1998-01-01

    Six sigmoidal growth curves and two growth curves derived from a two-phase relative growth rate model were evaluated, using an experimental body-weight data from male and female turkeys of two genetic lines; a fast-growing (F) line and a randombred control (RBC) line from which the F line was developed. When their root mean square error was compared to the root mean square error of the local regression smoother, all sigmoidal growth curves: the logistic, Gompertz, von Bertalanffy, Richards, Weibull, and Morgan-Mercer-Flodin growth curves demonstrated a lack of fit. The primary source of the systematic lack of fit was identified with nonparametric estimates of the relative growth rate (the growth rate as a fraction of the body weight) of 20 turkeys. When the relative growth rate was estimated from the above sigmoidal growth curves, none could accommodate features of the nonparametric estimates of the relative growth rate. Based on the feature of the relative growth rate, two new growth curves were derived from a segmented two-phase model. Both models, in which the relative growth rate decreases in two linear phases with slopes of beta1 and beta2 joined together at time=kappa, gave growth curves that fit the experimental data acceptably. The linear-linear model with the smooth transition rendered better fit over the model with the abrupt transition. When the growth curves of male and female turkeys were compared, beta1, beta2, and kappa were smaller in males. When the F line was compared to the RBC line, beta1 and kappa were smaller and beta2 was closer to zero, indicating that the relative growth rate declined rapidly until about 61 days of age in the F line, while it declined less rapidly until about 71 days of age in the RBC line.

  9. Methods of modelling relative growth rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Arne Pommerening; Anders Muszta

    2015-01-01

    Background:Analysing and modelling plant growth is an important interdisciplinary field of plant science. The use of relative growth rates, involving the analysis of plant growth relative to plant size, has more or less independently emerged in different research groups and at different times and has provided powerful tools for assessing the growth performance and growth efficiency of plants and plant populations. In this paper, we explore how these isolated methods can be combined to form a consistent methodology for modelling relative growth rates. Methods:We review and combine existing methods of analysing and modelling relative growth rates and apply a combination of methods to Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) stem-analysis data from North Wales (UK) and British Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesi (Mirb.) Franco) yield table data. Results:The results indicate that, by combining the approaches of different plant-growth analysis laboratories and using them simultaneously, we can advance and standardise the concept of relative plant growth. Particularly the growth multiplier plays an important role in modelling relative growth rates. Another useful technique has been the recent introduction of size-standardised relative growth rates. Conclusions:Modelling relative growth rates mainly serves two purposes, 1) an improved analysis of growth performance and efficiency and 2) the prediction of future or past growth rates. This makes the concept of relative growth ideally suited to growth reconstruction as required in dendrochronology, climate change and forest decline research and for interdisciplinary research projects beyond the realm of plant science.

  10. Methods of modelling relative growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne Pommerening

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Analysing and modelling plant growth is an important interdisciplinary field of plant science. The use of relative growth rates, involving the analysis of plant growth relative to plant size, has more or less independently emerged in different research groups and at different times and has provided powerful tools for assessing the growth performance and growth efficiency of plants and plant populations. In this paper, we explore how these isolated methods can be combined to form a consistent methodology for modelling relative growth rates. Methods We review and combine existing methods of analysing and modelling relative growth rates and apply a combination of methods to Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong. Carr. stem-analysis data from North Wales (UK and British Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. Franco yield table data. Results The results indicate that, by combining the approaches of different plant-growth analysis laboratories and using them simultaneously, we can advance and standardise the concept of relative plant growth. Particularly the growth multiplier plays an important role in modelling relative growth rates. Another useful technique has been the recent introduction of size-standardised relative growth rates. Conclusions Modelling relative growth rates mainly serves two purposes, 1 an improved analysis of growth performance and efficiency and 2 the prediction of future or past growth rates. This makes the concept of relative growth ideally suited to growth reconstruction as required in dendrochronology, climate change and forest decline research and for interdisciplinary research projects beyond the realm of plant science.

  11. Coordination polyhedron growth mechanism model and growth habit of crystals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A new growth mechanism model, coordination polyhedron growth mechanism model, is introduced from the angle of the coordination of anion and cation to each other at the interface. It is pointed out that the force driving the growth unit to enter the crystal lattice is the electrostatic attraction force between ions, whose relative size can be approximately measured by the electrostatic bond strength (EBS) that reaches a nearest neighbor anion (or cation) in the parent phase from a cation (or anion) at the interface. The growth habits of NaCl, ZnS, CaF2 and CsI crystals are discussed, and a new growth habit rule is proposed as follows. When the growth rate of a crystal is determined by the step generation rate, the growth habit of this crystal is related to the coordination number of the ion with the smallest coordination rate at the interface of various crystal faces. The smaller the coordination number of the ion at the interface, the faster the growth rate of corresponding crystal face. When the growth of a crystal depends on the step movement rate, the growth habit of this crystal is related to the density of the ion with the smallest coordination rate at the interface of various crystal faces. The smaller the densities of the ion at the interface is, the faster the growth rate of corresponding crystal face will be.

  12. Mathematical modeling of microbial growth in milk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jhony Tiago Teleken

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical model to predict microbial growth in milk was developed and analyzed. The model consists of a system of two differential equations of first order. The equations are based on physical hypotheses of population growth. The model was applied to five different sets of data of microbial growth in dairy products selected from Combase, which is the most important database in the area with thousands of datasets from around the world, and the results showed a good fit. In addition, the model provides equations for the evaluation of the maximum specific growth rate and the duration of the lag phase which may provide useful information about microbial growth.

  13. Theoretical model of ``fuzz'' growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krasheninnikov, Sergei; Smirnov, Roman

    2012-10-01

    Recent more detailed experiments on tungsten irradiation with low energy helium plasma, relevant to the near-wall plasma conditions in magnetic fusion reactor like ITER, demonstrated (e.g. see Ref. 1) a very dramatic change in both surface morphology and near surface material structure of the samples. In particular, it was shown that a long (mm-scale) and thin (nm-scale) fiber-like structures filled with nano-bubbles, so-called ``fuzz,'' start to grow. In this work theoretical model of ``fuzz'' growth [2] describing the main features observed in experiments is presented. This model, based on the assumption of enhancement of creep of tungsten containing significant fraction of helium atoms and clusters. The results of the MD simulations [3] support this idea and demonstrate a strong reduction of the yield strength for all temperature range. They also show that the ``flow'' of tungsten strongly facilitates coagulation of helium clusters and the formation of nano-bubbles.[4pt] [1] M. J. Baldwin, et al., J. Nucl. Mater. 390-391 (2009) 885;[0pt] [2] S. I. Krasheninnikov, Physica Scripta T145 (2011) 014040;[0pt] [3] R. D. Smirnov and S. I. Krasheninnikov, submitted to J. Nucl. Materials.

  14. Lévy-based growth models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsdóttir, Kristjana Ýr; Schmiegel, Jürgen; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2008-01-01

    In the present paper, we give a condensed review, for the nonspecialist reader, of a new modelling framework for spatio-temporal processes, based on Lévy theory. We show the potential of the approach in stochastic geometry and spatial statistics by studying Lévy-based growth modelling of planar...... objects. The growth models considered are spatio-temporal stochastic processes on the circle. As a by product, flexible new models for space–time covariance functions on the circle are provided. An application of the Lévy-based growth models to tumour growth is discussed....

  15. Testing mechanistic models of growth in insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maino, James L; Kearney, Michael R

    2015-11-22

    Insects are typified by their small size, large numbers, impressive reproductive output and rapid growth. However, insect growth is not simply rapid; rather, insects follow a qualitatively distinct trajectory to many other animals. Here we present a mechanistic growth model for insects and show that increasing specific assimilation during the growth phase can explain the near-exponential growth trajectory of insects. The presented model is tested against growth data on 50 insects, and compared against other mechanistic growth models. Unlike the other mechanistic models, our growth model predicts energy reserves per biomass to increase with age, which implies a higher production efficiency and energy density of biomass in later instars. These predictions are tested against data compiled from the literature whereby it is confirmed that insects increase their production efficiency (by 24 percentage points) and energy density (by 4 J mg(-1)) between hatching and the attainment of full size. The model suggests that insects achieve greater production efficiencies and enhanced growth rates by increasing specific assimilation and increasing energy reserves per biomass, which are less costly to maintain than structural biomass. Our findings illustrate how the explanatory and predictive power of mechanistic growth models comes from their grounding in underlying biological processes.

  16. Value Concept and Economic Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Truong Hong Trinh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the value added method for Gross Domestic Product (GDP measurement that explains the interrelationship between the expenditure approach and the income approach. The economic growth model is also proposed with three key elements of capital accumulation, technological innovation, and institutional reform. Although capital accumulation and technological innovation are two integrated elements in driving economic growth, institutional reforms play a key role in creating incentives that effect the transitional and steady state growth rate in the real world economy. The paper provides a theoretical insight on economic growth to understand incentives and driving forces in economic growth model.

  17. A continuous growth model for plant tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozorg, Behruz; Krupinski, Pawel; Jönsson, Henrik

    2016-12-01

    Morphogenesis in plants and animals involves large irreversible deformations. In plants, the response of the cell wall material to internal and external forces is determined by its mechanical properties. An appropriate model for plant tissue growth must include key features such as anisotropic and heterogeneous elasticity and cell dependent evaluation of mechanical variables such as turgor pressure, stress and strain. In addition, a growth model needs to cope with cell divisions as a necessary part of the growth process. Here we develop such a growth model, which is capable of employing not only mechanical signals but also morphogen signals for regulating growth. The model is based on a continuous equation for updating the resting configuration of the tissue. Simultaneously, material properties can be updated at a different time scale. We test the stability of our model by measuring convergence of growth results for a tissue under the same mechanical and material conditions but with different spatial discretization. The model is able to maintain a strain field in the tissue during re-meshing, which is of particular importance for modeling cell division. We confirm the accuracy of our estimations in two and three-dimensional simulations, and show that residual stresses are less prominent if strain or stress is included as input signal to growth. The approach results in a model implementation that can be used to compare different growth hypotheses, while keeping residual stresses and other mechanical variables updated and available for feeding back to the growth and material properties.

  18. Trajectories and models of individual growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arseniy Karkach

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available It has long been recognized that the patterns of growth play an important role in the evolution of age trajectories of fertility and mortality (Williams, 1957. Life history studies would benefit from a better understanding of strategies and mechanisms of growth, but still no comparative research on individual growth strategies has been conducted. Growth patterns and methods have been shaped by evolution and a great variety of them are observed. Two distinct patterns - determinate and indeterminate growth - are of a special interest for these studies since they present qualitatively different outcomes of evolution. We attempt to draw together studies covering growth in plant and animal species across a wide range of phyla focusing primarily on the noted qualitative features. We also review mathematical descriptions of growth, namely empirical growth curves and growth models, and discuss the directions of future research.

  19. Mathematical models for Isoptera (Insecta mound growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MLT. Buschini

    Full Text Available In this research we proposed two mathematical models for Isoptera mound growth derived from the Von Bertalanffy growth curve, one appropriated for Nasutitermes coxipoensis, and a more general formulation. The mean height and the mean diameter of ten small colonies were measured each month for twelve months, from April, 1995 to April, 1996. Through these data, the monthly volumes were calculated for each of them. Then the growth in height and in volume was estimated and the models proposed.

  20. Modeling Tissue Growth Within Nonwoven Scaffolds Pores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Church, Jeffrey S.; Alexander, David L.J.; Russell, Stephen J.; Ingham, Eileen; Ramshaw, John A.M.; Werkmeister, Jerome A.

    2011-01-01

    In this study we present a novel approach for predicting tissue growth within the pores of fibrous tissue engineering scaffolds. Thin nonwoven polyethylene terephthalate scaffolds were prepared to characterize tissue growth within scaffold pores, by mouse NR6 fibroblast cells. On the basis of measurements of tissue lengths at fiber crossovers and along fiber segments, mathematical models were determined during the proliferative phase of cell growth. Tissue growth at fiber crossovers decreased with increasing interfiber angle, with exponential relationships determined on day 6 and 10 of culture. Analysis of tissue growth along fiber segments determined two growth profiles, one with enhanced growth as a result of increased tissue lengths near the fiber crossover, achieved in the latter stage of culture. Derived mathematical models were used in the development of a software program to visualize predicted tissue growth within a pore. This study identifies key pore parameters that contribute toward tissue growth, and suggests models for predicting this growth, based on fibroblast cells. Such models may be used in aiding scaffold design, for optimum pore infiltration during the tissue engineering process. PMID:20687775

  1. Probabilistic Gompertz model of irreversible growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardos, D C

    2005-05-01

    Characterizing organism growth within populations requires the application of well-studied individual size-at-age models, such as the deterministic Gompertz model, to populations of individuals whose characteristics, corresponding to model parameters, may be highly variable. A natural approach is to assign probability distributions to one or more model parameters. In some contexts, size-at-age data may be absent due to difficulties in ageing individuals, but size-increment data may instead be available (e.g., from tag-recapture experiments). A preliminary transformation to a size-increment model is then required. Gompertz models developed along the above lines have recently been applied to strongly heterogeneous abalone tag-recapture data. Although useful in modelling the early growth stages, these models yield size-increment distributions that allow negative growth, which is inappropriate in the case of mollusc shells and other accumulated biological structures (e.g., vertebrae) where growth is irreversible. Here we develop probabilistic Gompertz models where this difficulty is resolved by conditioning parameter distributions on size, allowing application to irreversible growth data. In the case of abalone growth, introduction of a growth-limiting biological length scale is then shown to yield realistic length-increment distributions.

  2. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  3. Modeling Performance of Plant Growth Regulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. C. Kreuser

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Growing degree day (GDD models can predict the performance of plant growth regulators (PGRs applied to creeping bentgrass ( L.. The goal of this letter is to describe experimental design strategies and modeling approaches to create PGR models for different PGRs, application rates, and turf species. Results from testing the models indicate that clipping yield should be measured until the growth response has diminished. This is in contrast to reapplication of a PGR at preselected intervals. During modeling, inclusion of an amplitude-dampening coefficient in the sinewave model allows the PGR effect to dissipate with time.

  4. Modeling urban growth in Kigali city Rwanda

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kagoyire

    Keywords-Urban growth, GIS, Remote Sensing, Logistic Regression modeling, Kigali city, Rwanda ... decisions across space, of which there is Cellular Automata (CA) which has a great capability to handle .... grassland, and green vegetation.

  5. Stochastic Gompertz model of tumour cell growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, C F

    2007-09-21

    In this communication, based upon the deterministic Gompertz law of cell growth, a stochastic model in tumour growth is proposed. This model takes account of both cell fission and mortality too. The corresponding density function of the size of the tumour cells obeys a functional Fokker--Planck equation which can be solved analytically. It is found that the density function exhibits an interesting "multi-peak" structure generated by cell fission as time evolves. Within this framework the action of therapy is also examined by simply incorporating a therapy term into the deterministic cell growth term.

  6. Modeling Math Growth Trajectory--An Application of Conventional Growth Curve Model and Growth Mixture Model to ECLS K-5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi

    2016-01-01

    To model students' math growth trajectory, three conventional growth curve models and three growth mixture models are applied to the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study Kindergarten-Fifth grade (ECLS K-5) dataset in this study. The results of conventional growth curve model show gender differences on math IRT scores. When holding socio-economic…

  7. A d dimensional nucleation and growth model

    CERN Document Server

    Cerf, Raphael

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relaxation time of a ferromagnetic d dimensional growth model on the lattice. The model is characterized by d param- eters which represent the activation energies of a site, depending on the number of occupied nearest neighbours. This model is a natural generalisation of the model studied by Dehghanpour and Schonmann [DS97a], where the activation energy of a site with more than two occupied neighbours is zero.

  8. Microbial growth modelling with artificial neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeyamkonda, S; Jaya, D S; Holle, R A

    2001-03-20

    There is a growing interest in modelling microbial growth as an alternative to time-consuming, traditional, microbiological enumeration techniques. Several statistical models have been reported to describe the growth of different microorganisms, but there are accuracy problems. An alternate technique 'artificial neural networks' (ANN) for modelling microbial growth is explained and evaluated. Published data were used to build separate general regression neural network (GRNN) structures for modelling growth of Aeromonas hydrophila, Shigella flexneri, and Brochothrix thermosphacta. Both GRNN and published statistical model predictions were compared against the experimental data using six statistical indices. For training data sets, the GRNN predictions were far superior than the statistical model predictions, whereas the GRNN predictions were similar or slightly worse than statistical model predictions for test data sets for all the three data sets. GRNN predictions can be considered good, considering its performance for unseen data. Graphical plots, mean relative percentage residual, mean absolute relative residual, and root mean squared residual were identified as suitable indices for comparing competing models. ANN can now become a vehicle whereby predictive microbiology can be applied in food product development and food safety risk assessment.

  9. Activist Model of Political Party Growth

    CERN Document Server

    Jeffs, Rebecca A; Roach, Paul A; Wyburn, John

    2015-01-01

    The membership of British political parties has a direct influence on their political effectiveness. This paper applies the mathematics of epidemiology to the analysis of the growth and decline of such memberships. The party members are divided into activists and inactive members, where all activists influence the quality of party recruitment, but only a subset of activists recruit and thus govern numerical growth. The activists recruit for only a limited period, which acts as a restriction on further party growth. This Limited Activist model is applied to post-war and recent memberships of the Labour, Scottish National and Conservative parties. The model reproduces data trends, and relates realistically to historical narratives. It is concluded that the political parties analysed are not in danger of extinction but experience repeated periods of growth and decline in membership, albeit at lower numbers than in the past.

  10. A chaotic agricultural machines production growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Jablanović, Vesna D.

    2011-01-01

    Chaos theory, as a set of ideas, explains the structure in aperiodic, unpredictable dynamic systems. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple agricultural machines production growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π = 1 + α plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the agricultural machines production, where α is an autonomous growth rate of the ag...

  11. Thermal models pertaining to continental growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Paul; Ashwal, Lew

    1988-01-01

    Thermal models are important to understanding continental growth as the genesis, stabilization, and possible recycling of continental crust are closely related to the tectonic processes of the earth which are driven primarily by heat. The thermal energy budget of the earth was slowly decreasing since core formation, and thus the energy driving the terrestrial tectonic engine was decreasing. This fundamental observation was used to develop a logic tree defining the options for continental growth throughout earth history.

  12. Plant Growth Modelling and Applications: The Increasing Importance of Plant Architecture in Growth Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourcaud, Thierry; Zhang, Xiaopeng; Stokes, Alexia; Lambers, Hans; Körner, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Background Modelling plant growth allows us to test hypotheses and carry out virtual experiments concerning plant growth processes that could otherwise take years in field conditions. The visualization of growth simulations allows us to see directly and vividly the outcome of a given model and provides us with an instructive tool useful for agronomists and foresters, as well as for teaching. Functional–structural (FS) plant growth models are nowadays particularly important for integrating biological processes with environmental conditions in 3-D virtual plants, and provide the basis for more advanced research in plant sciences. Scope In this viewpoint paper, we ask the following questions. Are we modelling the correct processes that drive plant growth, and is growth driven mostly by sink or source activity? In current models, is the importance of soil resources (nutrients, water, temperature and their interaction with meristematic activity) considered adequately? Do classic models account for architectural adjustment as well as integrating the fundamental principles of development? Whilst answering these questions with the available data in the literature, we put forward the opinion that plant architecture and sink activity must be pushed to the centre of plant growth models. In natural conditions, sinks will more often drive growth than source activity, because sink activity is often controlled by finite soil resources or developmental constraints. PMA06 This viewpoint paper also serves as an introduction to this Special Issue devoted to plant growth modelling, which includes new research covering areas stretching from cell growth to biomechanics. All papers were presented at the Second International Symposium on Plant Growth Modeling, Simulation, Visualization and Applications (PMA06), held in Beijing, China, from 13–17 November, 2006. Although a large number of papers are devoted to FS models of agricultural and forest crop species, physiological and genetic

  13. Assessment of MARMOT Grain Growth Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fromm, B. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Fuel Modeling and Simulation Dept.; Zhang, Y. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Fuel Modeling and Simulation Dept.; Schwen, D. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Fuel Modeling and Simulation Dept.; Brown, D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pokharel, R. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This report assesses the MARMOT grain growth model by comparing modeling predictions with experimental results from thermal annealing. The purpose here is threefold: (1) to demonstrate the validation approach of using thermal annealing experiments with non-destructive characterization, (2) to test the reconstruction capability and computation efficiency in MOOSE, and (3) to validate the grain growth model and the associated parameters that are implemented in MARMOT for UO2. To assure a rigorous comparison, the 2D and 3D initial experimental microstructures of UO2 samples were characterized using non-destructive Synchrotron x-ray. The same samples were then annealed at 2273K for grain growth, and their initial microstructures were used as initial conditions for simulated annealing at the same temperature using MARMOT. After annealing, the final experimental microstructures were characterized again to compare with the results from simulations. So far, comparison between modeling and experiments has been done for 2D microstructures, and 3D comparison is underway. The preliminary results demonstrated the usefulness of the non-destructive characterization method for MARMOT grain growth model validation. A detailed analysis of the 3D microstructures is in progress to fully validate the current model in MARMOT.

  14. Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allan Drazen

    1993-03-01

    Full Text Available Endogenous Fertility in Models of Growth Most theories of economic growth ignore determinants of growth in population. The common assumption of constant population growth is strikingly inconsistent with the data, which reveal a logistic pattern of population growth, the acceleration often coinciding with industrialization. After surveying existing theories of endogenous population, we propose a model in which the family replaces the market in a "traditional" sector. Children are both the primary source of labor and the sole means of saving in this sector, with output divided behween generations via bargaining. Industrialization improves the oportunities of children outside the rural sector. It thus leads not only to higher outmigration, but also, by increasing children's bargaining power and hence their share of output, lowers the incentive to bear children. The model can thus explain observed changes in both overall population growth and in its sectorai composition.

  15. A toy model of sea ice growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndike, Alan S.

    1992-01-01

    My purpose here is to present a simplified treatment of the growth of sea ice. By ignoring many details, it is possible to obtain several results that help to clarify the ways in which the sea ice cover will respond to climate change. Three models are discussed. The first deals with the growth of sea ice during the cold season. The second describes the cycle of growth and melting for perennial ice. The third model extends the second to account for the possibility that the ice melts away entirely in the summer. In each case, the objective is to understand what physical processes are most important, what ice properties determine the ice behavior, and to which climate variables the system is most sensitive.

  16. Modeling Fish Growth in Low Dissolved Oxygen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilan, Rachael Miller

    2013-01-01

    This article describes a computational project designed for undergraduate students as an introduction to mathematical modeling. Students use an ordinary differential equation to describe fish weight and assume the instantaneous growth rate depends on the concentration of dissolved oxygen. Published laboratory experiments suggest that continuous…

  17. The von Bertalanffy growth model for horticulture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tijskens, L.M.M.; Schouten, R.E.; Unuk, T.; Šumak, D.

    2017-01-01

    Traditionally, crop load and fruit yield from previous seasons are used as indicators for prediction of fruit size. Disregarding the inevitable biological variation between fruit, von Bertalanffy (1938) described the growth, expressed as length, of virtually any living organism. The model is here

  18. Ruminant models of prenatal growth restriction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthony, R V; Scheaffer, A N; Wright, C D; Regnault, T R H

    2003-01-01

    Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is a significant health issue that not only affects infant mortality and morbidity, but may also predispose individuals to coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension and stroke as adults. The majority of IUGR pregnancies in humans are characterized by asymmetric fetal growth, resulting from inadequate nutrient transfer to the fetus. Furthermore, most of these pregnancies involve functional placental insufficiency, and may also show altered umbilical velocimetry. As the severity of IUGR increases, the fetus becomes increasingly hypoxic, hypoglycaemic and acidotic. In addition, placental transfer or utilization of some amino acids is known to be altered in IUGR pregnancies. Although a great deal has been learned from clinical studies of human IUGR, appropriate animal models are required to define completely the mechanisms involved in the development of IUGR. The pregnant sheep is a long-standing model for placental-fetal interactions, and fetal growth restriction can be induced in pregnant sheep by maternal nutrient restriction, maternal nutrient excess, administration of glucocorticoid, utero-placental embolization, carunclectomy and maternal hyperthermia. Although all of these sheep models are capable of inducing fetal growth restriction, the degree of restriction is variable. This review compares these sheep models of IUGR with the characteristics of human IUGR.

  19. A STOCHASTIC GROWTH MODEL WITH ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xueqing ZHANG; Shigeng HU; Haijun WANG

    2006-01-01

    Pollution is introduced into the utility function and the productive function in this paper.Under appropriate macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, this paper proves that the equilibrium levels of the main economic indexes are uniquely determined by the model parameters. This paper establishes the following alternative theorem: some factors affect the economic growth and the welfare in opposite way.

  20. Stochastic Modelling of Gompertzian Tumor Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Rourke, S. F. C.; Behera, A.

    2009-08-01

    We study the effect of correlated noise in the Gompertzian tumor growth model for non-zero correlation time. The steady state probability distributions and average population of tumor cells are analyzed within the Fokker-Planck formalism to investigate the importance of additive and multiplicative noise. We find that the correlation strength and correlation time have opposite effects on the steady state probability distributions. It is observed that the non-bistable Gompertzian model, driven by correlated noise exhibits a stochastic resonance and phase transition. This behaviour of the Gompertz model is unaffected with the change of correlation time and occurs as a result of multiplicative noise.

  1. Modelling subtle growth of linguistic networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kulig, Andrzej; Kwapien, Jaroslaw; Oswiecimka, Pawel

    2014-01-01

    We investigate properties of evolving linguistic networks defined by the word-adjacency relation. Such networks belong to the category of networks with accelerated growth but their shortest path length appears to reveal the network size dependence of different functional form than the ones known so far. We thus compare the networks created from literary texts with their artificial substitutes based on different variants of the Dorogovtsev-Mendes model and observe that none of them is able to properly simulate the novel asymptotics of the shortest path length. Then, we identify grammar induced local chain-like linear growth as a missing element in this model and extend it by incorporating such effects. It is in this way that a satisfactory agreement with the empirical result is obtained.

  2. Growth models for tree stems and vines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bressan, Alberto; Palladino, Michele; Shen, Wen

    2017-08-01

    The paper introduces a PDE model for the growth of a tree stem or a vine. The equations describe the elongation due to cell growth, and the response to gravity and to external obstacles. An additional term accounts for the tendency of a vine to curl around branches of other plants. When obstacles are present, the model takes the form of a differential inclusion with state constraints. At each time t, a cone of admissible reactions is determined by the minimization of an elastic deformation energy. The main theorem shows that local solutions exist and can be prolonged globally in time, except when a specific ;breakdown configuration; is reached. Approximate solutions are constructed by an operator-splitting technique. Some numerical simulations are provided at the end of the paper.

  3. Growth Model of Local Government Websites

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HO Sho; IIJIMA Junichi

    2004-01-01

    To clarify the concept framework to assess web based information systems (WIS)evolution from an information perspective instead of the usual systems perspective, and to seek for in-depth understanding of maturing patterns of WISs based on the framework, several central concepts related to the information aspect of WIS are firstly discussed, then a growth model of local government websites based on a survey study is proposed.

  4. Dendritic growth model of multilevel marketing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, James Christopher S.; Monterola, Christopher P.

    2017-02-01

    Biologically inspired dendritic network growth is utilized to model the evolving connections of a multilevel marketing (MLM) enterprise. Starting from agents at random spatial locations, a network is formed by minimizing a distance cost function controlled by a parameter, termed the balancing factor bf, that weighs the wiring and the path length costs of connection. The paradigm is compared to an actual MLM membership data and is shown to be successful in statistically capturing the membership distribution, better than the previously reported agent based preferential attachment or analytic branching process models. Moreover, it recovers the known empirical statistics of previously studied MLM, specifically: (i) a membership distribution characterized by the existence of peak levels indicating limited growth, and (ii) an income distribution obeying the 80 - 20 Pareto principle. Extensive types of income distributions from uniform to Pareto to a "winner-take-all" kind are also modeled by varying bf. Finally, the robustness of our dendritic growth paradigm to random agent removals is explored and its implications to MLM income distributions are discussed.

  5. Modeling and control of greenhouse crop growth

    CERN Document Server

    Rodríguez, Francisco; Guzmán, José Luis; Ramírez-Arias, Armando

    2015-01-01

    A discussion of challenges related to the modeling and control of greenhouse crop growth, this book presents state-of-the-art answers to those challenges. The authors model the subsystems involved in successful greenhouse control using different techniques and show how the models obtained can be exploited for simulation or control design; they suggest ideas for the development of physical and/or black-box models for this purpose. Strategies for the control of climate- and irrigation-related variables are brought forward. The uses of PID control and feedforward compensators, both widely used in commercial tools, are summarized. The benefits of advanced control techniques—event-based, robust, and predictive control, for example—are used to improve on the performance of those basic methods. A hierarchical control architecture is developed governed by a high-level multiobjective optimization approach rather than traditional constrained optimization and artificial intelligence techniques.  Reference trajector...

  6. Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær

    2017-01-01

    R&D-based growth models are tested using US data for the period 1953-2014. A general growth model is developed which nests the model varieties of interest. The model implies a cointegrating relationship between multifactor productivity, research intensity, and employment. This relationship is est......-run growth rate of GDP per worker converges to between zero and 1.1 pct....

  7. Detecting Appropriate Trajectories of Growth in Latent Growth Models: The Performance of Information-Based Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Khojasteh, Jam

    2017-01-01

    Latent growth modeling (LGM) is a popular and flexible technique that may be used when data are collected across several different measurement occasions. Modeling the appropriate growth trajectory has important implications with respect to the accurate interpretation of parameter estimates of interest in a latent growth model that may impact…

  8. Two-part silicone mold. A new tool for flexible ureteroscopy surgical training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Marroig

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction and objectives: Flexible ureteroscopy is a common procedure nowadays. Most of the training programs use virtual reality simulators. The aim of this study was to standardize the building of a three-dimensional silicone mold (cavity of the collecting system, on the basis of polyester resin endocasts, which can be used in surgical training programs. Materials and Methods: A yellow polyester resin was injected into the ureter to fill the collecting system of 24 cadaveric fresh human kidneys. After setting off the resin, the kidneys were immersed in hydrochloric acid until total corrosion of the organic matter was achieved and the collecting system endocasts obtained. The endocasts were used to prepare white color two-part silicone molds, which after endocasts withdrawn, enabled a ureteroscope insertion into the collecting system molds (cavities. Also, the minor calices were painted with different colors in order to map the access to the different caliceal groups. The cost of the materials used in the molds is $30.00 and two days are needed to build them. Results: Flexible ureteroscope could be inserted into all molds and the entire collecting system could be examined. Since some anatomical features, as infundular length, acute angle, and perpendicular minor calices may difficult the access to some minor calices, especially in the lower caliceal group, surgical training in models leads to better surgical results. Conclusions: The two-part silicone mold is feasible, cheap and allows its use for flexible ureteroscopy surgical training.

  9. Growth units model of anion coordination-polyhedra and its application to crystal growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xuehua; LUO Haosu; ZHONG Weizhuo

    2004-01-01

    Growth units model of anion coordination-polyhedra ACP model emphasizes the influence of intrinsic structure of crstal upon the crystal growth and the importance of the external conditions on which crystals grow. The ACP model is used to analyze some problems in crystal growth, such as the formation of dendrite in the crystal structure,growth habit of polar crystal, and formation of allomerism and polymorphism.

  10. Modeling surface growth of Escherichia coli on agar plates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Morozumi, Satoshi

    2005-12-01

    Surface growth of Escherichia coli cells on a membrane filter placed on a nutrient agar plate under various conditions was studied with a mathematical model. The surface growth of bacterial cells showed a sigmoidal curve with time on a semilogarithmic plot. To describe it, a new logistic model that we presented earlier (H. Fujikawa et al., Food Microbiol. 21:501-509, 2004) was modified. Growth curves at various constant temperatures (10 to 34 degrees C) were successfully described with the modified model (model III). Model III gave better predictions of the rate constant of growth and the lag period than a modified Gompertz model and the Baranyi model. Using the parameter values of model III at the constant temperatures, surface growth at various temperatures was successfully predicted. Surface growth curves at various initial cell numbers were also sigmoidal and converged to the same maximum cell numbers at the stationary phase. Surface growth curves at various nutrient levels were also sigmoidal. The maximum cell number and the rate of growth were lower as the nutrient level decreased. The surface growth curve was the same as that in a liquid, except for the large curvature at the deceleration period. These curves were also well described with model III. The pattern of increase in the ATP content of cells grown on a surface was sigmoidal, similar to that for cell growth. We discovered several characteristics of the surface growth of bacterial cells under various growth conditions and examined the applicability of our model to describe these growth curves.

  11. A competition model for wormhole growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabeza Diaz de Cerio, Yoar; Carrera, Jesus; Hidalgo, Juan J.

    2016-04-01

    Flow preferential pathways generated by dissolution are commonly known as wormholes. Wormhole generation and evolution are topics of interest not only for karst aquifer studies but also for fields as CO2 storage and oil industry among others. The objective of this work is to show that given an initial perturbation, the development of the dissolution pattern can be considered deterministic. This means that the evolution of the effective hydraulic conductivity can be predicted. To this end we use a wormhole growth model in which wormholes compete for the available water. In the competition model the wormholes grow proportionally to the flow rate through them. The wormhole flow rate is a function of the wormholes lengths and distances between them. We derive empirical expressions for the flow rates from steady state flow synthetic models with different geometries. Finally, we perform series of simulations using this competition model, applying random initial perturbations and different number of wormholes for each set of simulations and we study the evolution of the dissolution pattern. We find that the resulting wormhole patterns are in good agreement with others generated with much more complex models.

  12. Modelling competitive coadsorption in electrochemical growth processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aarão-Reis, F D A; Pauporte, T; Lincot, D; Reis, Fabio D. A. Aarao; Pauporte, Thierry; Lincot, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    We present models of electrodeposition of ZnO films with organic additives, with focus on the growth of hybrid films with eosin Y. First we propose a rate equation model which assumes that the additives form branches with an exposed part above the ZnO deposit, growing with larger rate than the pure film, and that the rate of production of ZnO near those branches is proportional to the height exposed to the solution. This accounts for the production of OH- ions near the branches and the reactions with Zn++ ions. The steady state solution shows both species growing with the rate of the branches, and qualitatively explains their catalytic effect. Subsequently, we propose a more realistic statistical model for the formation of the hybrid deposits from Zn++ ions, a hydroxide precursor and eosin in solution. Simple probabilistic rules are used for reactions of eosin and oxygen, taking into account diffusion from solution along the same lines of the diffusion-limited aggregation models. The catalytic effect is repre...

  13. Flower Power: Sunflowers as a Model for Logistic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Eileen; Geist, Kristi A.

    2011-01-01

    Logistic growth displays an interesting pattern: It starts fast, exhibiting the rapid growth characteristic of exponential models. As time passes, it slows in response to constraints such as limited resources or reallocation of energy. The growth continues to slow until it reaches a limit, called capacity. When the growth describes a population,…

  14. Modeling and Optimization for Epitaxial Growth: Transport and Growth Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Epsilon-1 microprocessor and controlled automatically in–situ. For example, PID controllers and MFCs regulate the thermocouple temperatures and inlet flow...thermocouples are regulated by PID controllers . The set-up of the reactor apparatus may partially explain the smaller variation in actual growth rates. Recall

  15. Incorporating Student Mobility in Achievement Growth Modeling: A Cross-Classified Multiple Membership Growth Curve Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grady, Matthew W.; Beretvas, S. Natasha

    2010-01-01

    Multiple membership random effects models (MMREMs) have been developed for use in situations where individuals are members of multiple higher level organizational units. Despite their availability and the frequency with which multiple membership structures are encountered, no studies have extended the MMREM approach to hierarchical growth curve…

  16. Agriculture and economic growth in Ethiopia: growth multipliers from a four-sector simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    1999-01-01

    Agriculture accounts for over half of Ethiopian GDP, yet the case for agriculture as a focus of economic growth strategies must rely on identifying a set of intersectoral linkages through which agricultural growth contributes to the growth of nonagriculture in the Ethiopian economy. This article develops a four-sector numerical simulation model of economic growth in Ethiopia which permits the calculation of macroeconomic growth multipliers resulting from income shocks to agriculture, services...

  17. A Solvable Symbiosis-Driven Growth Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KE Jian-Hong; LIN Zhen-Quan; CHEN Xiao-Shuang

    2006-01-01

    We introduce a two-species symbiosis-driven growth model, in which two species can mutually benefit for their monomer birth and the self-death of each species simultaneously occurs. By means of the generalized rate equation, we investigate the dynamic evolution of the system under the monodisperse initial condition. It is found that the kinetic behaviour of the system depends crucially on the details of the rate kernels as well as the initial concentration distributions. The cluster size distribution of either species cannot be scaled in most cases;while in some special cases, they both consistently take the universal scaling form. Moreover, in some cases the system may undergo a gelation transition and the pre-gelation behaviour of the cluster size distributions satisfies the scaling form in the vicinity of the gelation point. On the other hand, the two species always live and die together.

  18. 4D Shape-Preserving Modelling of Bone Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Per Rønsholt; Nielsen, Mads; Kreiborg, Sven

    1998-01-01

    From a set of temporally separated scannings of the same anatomical structure we wish to identify and analyze the growth in terms of a metamorphosis. That is, we study the tempral change of shape which may prowide an understanding of the biological processes which govern the growth process. We...... subdivide the growth analysis into growth simulation, growth modelling, and finally the growth analysis. In this paper, we present results of growth simulation of the mandible from 3 scannings of the same patient in the age of 9 months, 21 months, and 7 years. We also present the first growth models...... and growth analyzes. The ultimative goal is to predict/simulate human growth which would be extremely useful in many surgical procedures....

  19. A model of urban rational growth based on grey prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Wenjing

    2017-04-01

    Smart growth focuses on building sustainable cities, using compact development to prevent urban sprawl. This paper establishes a series of models to implement smart growth theories into city design. Besides two specific city design cases are shown. Firstly, We establishes Smart Growth Measure Model to measure the success of smart growth of a city. And we use Full Permutation Polygon Synthetic Indicator Method to calculate the Comprehensive Indicator (CI) which is used to measure the success of smart growth. Secondly, this paper uses the principle of smart growth to develop a new growth plan for two cities. We establish an optimization model to maximum CI value. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to solve the model. Combined with the calculation results and the specific circumstances of cities, we make their the smart growth plan respectively.

  20. 3D Modeling and Simulation of Dendritic Growth during Solidification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zuojian LIANG; Qingyan XU; Baicheng LIU

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for the three-dimensional simulation of free dendritic growth and microstructure evolutionwas developed based on the growth mechanism of crystal grains and basic transfer equations such as heat, massand momentum transfer equations. Ma

  1. Kinetic models of cell growth, substrate utilization and bio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2008-05-02

    May 2, 2008 ... A simple model was proposed using the Logistic Equation for the growth,. Leudeking-Piret ... (melanoidin) which may create many problems and also .... Where, the constant µ is defined as the specific growth rate. Equation 1 ...

  2. Statistical Ensemble Theory of Gompertz Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takuya Yamano

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble formulation for the Gompertz growth function within the framework of statistical mechanics is presented, where the two growth parameters are assumed to be statistically distributed. The growth can be viewed as a self-referential process, which enables us to use the Bose-Einstein statistics picture. The analytical entropy expression pertain to the law can be obtained in terms of the growth velocity distribution as well as the Gompertz function itself for the whole process.

  3. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies.Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  4. Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    English, Sinéad; Bateman, Andrew W; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2012-05-01

    Lifetime records of changes in individual size or mass in wild animals are scarce and, as such, few studies have attempted to model variation in these traits across the lifespan or to assess the factors that affect them. However, quantifying lifetime growth is essential for understanding trade-offs between growth and other life history parameters, such as reproductive performance or survival. Here, we used model selection based on information theory to measure changes in body mass over the lifespan of wild meerkats, and compared the relative fits of several standard growth models (monomolecular, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, logistic and Richards). We found that meerkats exhibit monomolecular growth, with the best model incorporating separate growth rates before and after nutritional independence, as well as effects of season and total rainfall in the previous nine months. Our study demonstrates how simple growth curves may be improved by considering life history and environmental factors, which may be particularly relevant when quantifying growth patterns in wild populations.

  5. Reactive burn models and ignition & growth concept

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph S [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shaw, Milton S [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    Plastic-bonded explosives are heterogeneous materials. Experimentally, shock initiation is sensitive to small amounts of porosity, due to the formation of hot spots (small localized regions of high temperature). This leads to the Ignition and Growth concept, introduced by Lee and Tarver in 1980, as the basis for reactive burn models. A homogeneized burn rate needs to account for three mesoscale physical effects (i) the density of burnt hot spots, which depends on the lead shock strength; (ii) the growth of the burn fronts triggered by hot spots, which depends on the local deflagration speed; (iii) a geometric factor that accounts for the overlap of deflagration wavelets from adjacent hot spots. These effects can be combined and the burn model defined by specifying the reaction progress variable {lambda}(t) as a function of a dimensionless reaction length {tau}{sub hs}(t)/{ell}{sub hs}, rather than by xpecifying an explicit burn rate. The length scale {ell}{sub hs} is the average distance between hot spots, which is proportional to [N{sub hs}(P{sub s})]{sup -1/3}, where N{sub hs} is the number density of hot spots activated by the lead shock. The reaction length {tau}{sub hs}(t) = {line_integral}{sub 0}{sup t} D(P(t'))dt' is the distance the burn front propagates from a single hot spot, where D is the deflagration speed and t is the time since the shock arrival. A key implementation issue is how to determine the lead shock strength in conjunction with a shock capturing scheme. They have developed a robust algorithm for this purpose based on the Hugoniot jump condition for the energy. The algorithm utilizes the time dependence of density, pressure and energy within each cell. The method is independent of the numerical dissipation used for shock capturing. It is local and can be used in one or more space dimensions. The burn model has a small number of parameters which can be calibrated to fit velocity gauge data from shock initiation experiments.

  6. Reactive burn models and ignition & growth concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaw M.S.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Plastic-bonded explosives are heterogeneous materials. Experimentally, shock initiation is sensitive to small amounts of porosity, due to the formation of hot spots (small localized regions of high temperature. This leads to the Ignition & Growth concept, introduced by LeeTarver in 1980, as the basis for reactive burn models. A homo- genized burn rate needs to account for three meso-scale physical effects: (i the density of active hot spots or burn centers; (ii the growth of the burn fronts triggered by the burn centers; (iii a geometric factor that accounts for the overlap of deflagration wavelets from adjacent burn centers. These effects can be combined and the burn model defined by specifying the reaction progress variable λ = g(s as a function of a dimensionless reaction length s(t = rbc/ℓbc, rather than by specifying an explicit burn rate. The length scale ℓbc(Ps = [Nbc(Ps]−1/3 is the average distance between burn centers, where Nbc is the number density of burn centers activated by the lead shock. The reaction length rbc(t = ∫t0 D(P(t′dt′ is the distance the burn front propagates from a single burn center, where D(P is the deflagration speed as a function of the local pressure and t is the time since the shock arrival. A key implementation issue is how to determine the lead shock strength in conjunction with a shock capturing scheme. We have developed a robust algorithm for this purpose based on the Hugoniot jump condition for the energy. The algorithm utilizes the time dependence of density, pressure and energy within each cell. The method is independent of the numerical dissipation used for shock capturing. It is local and can be used in one or more space dimensions. The burn model has a small number of parameters which can be calibrated to fit velocity gauge data from shock initiation experiments.

  7. Stochastic modeling of thermal fatigue crack growth

    CERN Document Server

    Radu, Vasile

    2015-01-01

    The book describes a systematic stochastic modeling approach for assessing thermal-fatigue crack-growth in mixing tees, based on the power spectral density of temperature fluctuation at the inner pipe surface. It shows the development of a frequency-temperature response function in the framework of single-input, single-output (SISO) methodology from random noise/signal theory under sinusoidal input. The frequency response of stress intensity factor (SIF) is obtained by a polynomial fitting procedure of thermal stress profiles at various instants of time. The method, which takes into account the variability of material properties, and has been implemented in a real-world application, estimates the probabilities of failure by considering a limit state function and Monte Carlo analysis, which are based on the proposed stochastic model. Written in a comprehensive and accessible style, this book presents a new and effective method for assessing thermal fatigue crack, and it is intended as a concise and practice-or...

  8. Numeric Modeling of Granular Asteroid Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumont, Benjamin; Lazzati, D.

    2014-01-01

    It is believed that planetesimals and asteroids are created by the constructive collisions of smaller objects, loosely bound under the effect of self-gravity and/or contact forces. However, the internal dynamics of these collisions and whether they trigger growth or fragmentation are poorly understood. Prior research in the topic has established regimes for the results of constructive collisions of particles under contact forces, but neglects gravity, a critical component once particles are no longer touching, and force chains, an uneven distribution of force inherent to granular materials. We run simulations binary collisions of clusters of particles modeled as hard spheres. Our simulations take into account self-gravity, dissipation of energy, friction, and use a potential function for overlapping particles to study force chains. We present here the collision outcome for clusters with variable masses, particle counts, velocities, and impact parameter. We compare our results to other models and simulations, and find that the collisions remain constructive at higher energies than classically predicted.

  9. Using time-varying covariates in multilevel growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Betsy McCoach

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an illustration of growth curve modeling within a multilevel framework. Specifically, we demonstrate coding schemes that allow the researcher to model discontinuous longitudinal data using a linear growth model in conjunction with time varying covariates. Our focus is on developing a level-1 model that accurately reflects the shape of the growth trajectory. We demonstrate the importance of adequately modeling the shape of the level-1 growth trajectory in order to make inferences about the importance of both level-1 and level-2 predictors.

  10. Microbial Growth Modeling and Simulation Based on Cellular Automata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Men

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to simulate the micro-evolutionary process of the microbial growth, [Methods] in this study, we adopt two-dimensional cellular automata as its growth space. Based on evolutionary mechanism of microbial and cell-cell interactions, we adopt Moore neighborhood and make the transition rules. Finally, we construct the microbial growth model. [Results] It can describe the relationships among the cell growth, division and death. And also can effectively reflect spatial inhibition effect and substrate limitation effect. [Conclusions] The simulation results show that CA model is not only consistent with the classic microbial kinetic model, but also be able to simulate the microbial growth and evolution.

  11. A literature review on growth models and strategies: The missing link in entrepreneurial growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Fida Hussain Shah

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the importance of growth models, growth strategies, role of knowledge management system in the formulation of effective strategy for the enterprises following growth. Choice of an appropriate growth strategy is at the heart of any successful entrepreneurial venture. Selection of a strategy may be effective for one entrepreneur while it is not for other. Choice of Growth Strategy depends on various different factors, organisational context and environment which may vary from enterprise to enterprise. Resource based view is very important consideration for the entrepreneurs on the path of growth. Evaluation of all kind of resources helps them to grow their enterprises successfully. Selection of an appropriate growth strategy allows the entrepreneurs in overcoming growth challenges and avoiding the growth reversals and setbacks.

  12. A new growth curve model for biological growth: some inferential studies on the growth of Cirrhinus mrigala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhowmick, Amiya Ranjan; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi

    2014-08-01

    Growth of living organisms is a fundamental biological process. It depicts the physiological development of the species related to the environment. Mathematical development of growth curve models has a long history since its birth. We propose a mathematical model to describe the evolution of relative growth rate as a function of time based on a real life experiment on a major Indian Carp Cirrhinus mrigala. We establish that the proposed model is able to describe the fish growth dynamics more accurately for our experimental data than some existing models e.g. logistic, Gompertz, exponential. Approximate expressions of the points of inflection and the time of achieving the maximum relative growth rate are derived. We study, in detail, the existence of a nonlinear least squares estimator of the model parameters and their consistency properties. Test-statistics is developed to study the equality of points of inflection and equality of the amount of time necessary to achieve the maximum relative growth rate for a species at two different locations. Using the theory of variance stabilizing transformations, we propose a new test statistic to test the effect of the decay parameter for the proposed growth law. The testing procedure is found to be more sensitive in comparison with the test based on nonlinear least squares estimates. Our proposed model provides a general framework to model growth in other disciplines as well.

  13. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  14. Suitability Analysis of Continuous-Use Reliability Growth Projection Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    exists for all types, shapes, and sizes. The primary focus of this study is a comparison of reliability growth projection models designed for...requirements to use reliability growth models, recent studies have noted trends in reliability failures throughout the DoD. In [14] Dr. Michael Gilmore...so a strict exponential distribu- tion was used to stay within their assumptions. In reality, however, reliability growth models often must be used

  15. Phase field modeling of dendrite growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yutuo ZHANG; Chengzhi WANG; Dianzhong LI; Yiyi LI

    2009-01-01

    Single dendrite and multi-dendrite growth for A1-2 mol pct Si alloy during isothermal solidification are simulated by phase field method. In the case of single equiaxed dendrite growth, the secondary and the necking phenomenon can be observed. For multi-dendrite growth, there exists the competitive growth among the dendrites dur-ing solidification. As solidification proceeds, growing and coarsening of the primary arms occurs, together with the branching and coarsening of the secondary arms.When the diffusion fields of dendrite tips come into contact with those of the branches growing from the neighboring dendrites, the dendrites stop growing and being to ripen and thicken.

  16. An autocatalytic kinetic model for describing microbial growth during fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibarz, Albert; Augusto, Pedro E D

    2015-01-01

    The mathematical modelling of the behaviour of microbial growth is widely desired in order to control, predict and design food and bioproduct processing, stability and safety. This work develops and proposes a new semi-empirical mathematical model, based on an autocatalytic kinetic, to describe the microbial growth through its biomass concentration. The proposed model was successfully validated using 15 microbial growth patterns, covering the three most important types of microorganisms in food and biotechnological processing (bacteria, yeasts and moulds). Its main advantages and limitations are discussed, as well as the interpretation of its parameters. It is shown that the new model can be used to describe the behaviour of microbial growth.

  17. Progress in modeling of fluid flows in crystal growth processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qisheng Chen; Yanni Jiang; Junyi Yan; Ming Qin

    2008-01-01

    Modeling of fluid flows in crystal growth processes has become an important research area in theoretical and applied mechanics.Most crystal growth processes involve fluid flows,such as flows in the melt,solution or vapor.Theoretical modeling has played an important role in developing technologies used for growing semiconductor crystals for high performance electronic and optoelectronic devices.The application of devices requires large diameter crystals with a high degree of crystallographic perfection,low defect density and uniform dopant distribution.In this article,the flow models developed in modeling of the crystal growth processes such as Czochralski,ammono-thermal and physical vapor transport methods are reviewed.In the Czochralski growth modeling,the flow models for thermocapillary flow,turbulent flow and MHD flow have been developed.In the ammonothermal growth modeling,the buoyancy and porous media flow models have been developed based on a single-domain and continuum approach for the composite fluid-porous layer systems.In the physical vapor transport growth modeling,the Stefan flow model has been proposed based on the flow-kinetics theory for the vapor growth.In addition,perspectives for future studies on crystal growth modeling are proposed.

  18. Nanowire growth process modeling and reliability models for nanodevices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fathi Aghdam, Faranak

    Nowadays, nanotechnology is becoming an inescapable part of everyday life. The big barrier in front of its rapid growth is our incapability of producing nanoscale materials in a reliable and cost-effective way. In fact, the current yield of nano-devices is very low (around 10 %), which makes fabrications of nano-devices very expensive and uncertain. To overcome this challenge, the first and most important step is to investigate how to control nano-structure synthesis variations. The main directions of reliability research in nanotechnology can be classified either from a material perspective or from a device perspective. The first direction focuses on restructuring materials and/or optimizing process conditions at the nano-level (nanomaterials). The other direction is linked to nano-devices and includes the creation of nano-electronic and electro-mechanical systems at nano-level architectures by taking into account the reliability of future products. In this dissertation, we have investigated two topics on both nano-materials and nano-devices. In the first research work, we have studied the optimization of one of the most important nanowire growth processes using statistical methods. Research on nanowire growth with patterned arrays of catalyst has shown that the wire-to-wire spacing is an important factor affecting the quality of resulting nanowires. To improve the process yield and the length uniformity of fabricated nanowires, it is important to reduce the resource competition between nanowires during the growth process. We have proposed a physical-statistical nanowire-interaction model considering the shadowing effect and shared substrate diffusion area to determine the optimal pitch that would ensure the minimum competition between nanowires. A sigmoid function is used in the model, and the least squares estimation method is used to estimate the model parameters. The estimated model is then used to determine the optimal spatial arrangement of catalyst arrays

  19. A dynamic model of tomato fruit growth integrating cell division, cell growth and endoreduplication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fanwoua, J.; Visser, de P.H.B.; Heuvelink, E.; Yin, X.; Struik, P.C.; Marcelis, L.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we developed a model of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) fruit growth integrating cell division, cell growth and endoreduplication. The fruit was considered as a population of cells grouped in cell classes differing in their initial cell age and cell mass. The model describes fruit gr

  20. Diagnosing ΛHDE model with statefinder hierarchy and fractional growth parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, LanJun; Wang, Shuang

    2016-07-01

    Recently, a new dark energy model called ΛHDE was proposed. In this model, dark energy consists of two parts: cosmological constant Λ and holographic dark energy (HDE). Two key parameters of this model are the fractional density of cosmological constant ΩΛ0, and the dimensionless HDE parameter c. Since these two parameters determine the dynamical properties of DE and the destiny of universe, it is important to study the impacts of different values of ΩΛ0 and c on the ΛHDE model. In this paper, we apply various DE diagnostic tools to diagnose ΛHDE models with different values of ΩΛ0 and c; these tools include statefinder hierarchy {S 3 (1) , S 4 (1) }, fractional growth parameter ɛ, and composite null diagnostic (CND), which is a combination of {S 3 (1) , S 4 (1) } and ɛ. We find that: (1) adopting different values of ΩΛ0 only has quantitative impacts on the evolution of the ΛHDE model, while adopting different c has qualitative impacts; (2) compared with S 3 (1) , S 4 (1) can give larger differences among the cosmic evolutions of the ΛHDE model associated with different ΩΛ0 or different c; (3) compared with the case of using a single diagnostic, adopting a CND pair has much stronger ability to diagnose the ΛHDE model.

  1. Modeling Urban Spatial Growth in Mountainous Regions of Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoping Huang

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The scale and speed of urbanization in the mountainous regions of western China have received little attention from researchers. These cities are facing rapid population growth and severe environmental degradation. This study analyzed historical urban growth trends in this mountainous region to better understand the interaction between the spatial growth pattern and the mountainous topography. Three major factors—slope, accessibility, and land use type—were studied in light of their relationships with urban spatial growth. With the analysis of historical data as the basis, a conceptual urban spatial growth model was devised. In this model, slope, accessibility, and land use type together create resistance to urban growth, while accessibility controls the sequence of urban development. The model was tested and evaluated using historical data. It serves as a potential tool for planners to envision and assess future urban growth scenarios and their potential environmental impacts to make informed decisions.

  2. FTEC: a coalescent simulator for modeling faster than exponential growth

    OpenAIRE

    Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    Summary: Recent genetic studies as well as recorded history point to massive growth in human population sizes during the recent past. To model and understand this growth accurately we introduce FTEC, an easy-to-use coalescent simulation program capable of simulating haplotype samples drawn from a population that has undergone faster than exponential growth. Samples drawn from a population that has undergone faster than exponential growth show an excess of very rare variation and more rapid LD...

  3. Differential model of macroeconomic growth with endogenic cyclicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail I. Geraskin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics. Methods economic and mathematical modeling system analysis regression factor analysis econometric time series analysis. Results the article states that under unstable economic growth in Russia forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors taking into account such basic concepts as the neoKeynesian HarrodDomar model Ramsey ndash Cass ndash Koopmans model S. V. Dubovskiyrsquos concept as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multifactor differential economic growth model which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow taking into account the laborsaving and capitalsaving forms of scientifictechnical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP employment fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 19652016 in Russia on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of longwave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated which shows that after 2020 the increase of scientifictechnical progress will be negative. Scientific novelty a model is proposed of the scientifictechnical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained which endogenously takes cyclicity into account

  4. Multiphasic growth models and the evolution of prolonged growth exemplified by human brain evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrba, E S

    1998-02-07

    New models for multiphasic growth are presented. They are illustrated by analysis of brain growth in humans and chimpanzees, and the results are used to test the hypothesis of evolution by proportional growth prolongation: that all descendant growth phases are extended by the same factor while each remains at the ancestral growth rate. The results are consistent with the hypothesis and imply that gross brain weight increase towards humans required change in only one growth parameter: prolongation of the nonlinear ancestral growth phases. The restricted and orderly nature of the developmental changes hints at a basis in few genetic changes. Proportional growth prolongation is of general evolutionary importance because it can reorganize body proportions.

  5. Computational modeling of hypertensive growth in the human carotid artery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sáez, Pablo; Peña, Estefania; Martínez, Miguel Angel; Kuhl, Ellen

    2014-06-01

    Arterial hypertension is a chronic medical condition associated with an elevated blood pressure. Chronic arterial hypertension initiates a series of events, which are known to collectively initiate arterial wall thickening. However, the correlation between macrostructural mechanical loading, microstructural cellular changes, and macrostructural adaptation remains unclear. Here, we present a microstructurally motivated computational model for chronic arterial hypertension through smooth muscle cell growth. To model growth, we adopt a classical concept based on the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into an elastic part and a growth part. Motivated by clinical observations, we assume that the driving force for growth is the stretch sensed by the smooth muscle cells. We embed our model into a finite element framework, where growth is stored locally as an internal variable. First, to demonstrate the features of our model, we investigate the effects of hypertensive growth in a real human carotid artery. Our results agree nicely with experimental data reported in the literature both qualitatively and quantitatively.

  6. Centrality Fingerprints for Power Grid Network Growth Models

    CERN Document Server

    Gurfinkel, Aleks Jacob; Rikvold, Per Arne

    2015-01-01

    In our previous work, we have shown that many of the properties of the Florida power grid are reproduced by deterministic network growth models based on the minimization of energy dissipation $E_\\mathrm{diss}$. As there is no $a~ priori$ best $E_\\mathrm{diss}$ minimizing growth model, we here present a tool, called the "centrality fingerprint," for probing the behavior of different growth models. The centrality fingerprints are comparisons of the current flow into/out of the network with the values of various centrality measures calculated at every step of the growth process. Finally, we discuss applications to the Maryland power grid.

  7. Understanding the Drivers of Economic Growth: Grounding Endogenous Economic Growth Models in Resource-Advantage Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby D. Hunt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Foss (2012 provides an informed and informative comment on my article “Trust, Personal Moral Codes, and the Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition: Explaining Productivity, Economic Growth, and Wealth Creation” (Hunt, 2012. In general, his comment is highly supportive of both the theory and the arguments developed in my article. He does, however, raise certain issues that need to be addressed. These issues relate to the concept of total factor productivity, the role of institutions in promoting economic growth, and the importance of understanding how transaction costs impact entrepreneurship and economic growth. This reply focuses on his discussion of growth economics and endogenous economic growth models.

  8. Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony P. Thirlwall

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Thirlwall’s 1979 balance of payments constrained growth model predicts that a country’s long run growth of GDP can be approximated by the ratio of the growth of real exports to the income elasticity of demand for imports assuming negligible effects from real exchange rate movements. The paper surveys developments of the model since then, allowing for capital flows, interest payments on debt, terms of trade movements, and disaggregation of the model by commodities and trading partners. Various tests of the model are discussed, and an extensive list of papers that have examined the model is presented.

  9. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia); Salleh, Madihah Md [Department of Biotechnology Industry, Faculty of Biosciences and Bioengineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2014-06-19

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  10. Stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for batch fermentation process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosli, Norhayati; Ayoubi, Tawfiqullah; Bahar, Arifah; Rahman, Haliza Abdul; Salleh, Madihah Md

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, the stochastic growth logistic model with aftereffect for the cell growth of C. acetobutylicum P262 and Luedeking-Piret equations for solvent production in batch fermentation system is introduced. The parameters values of the mathematical models are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic models numerically. The effciency of mathematical models is measured by comparing the simulated result and the experimental data of the microbial growth and solvent production in batch system. Low values of Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of stochastic models with aftereffect indicate good fits.

  11. Estimation of growth parameters using a nonlinear mixed Gompertz model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z; Zuidhof, M J

    2004-06-01

    In order to maximize the utility of simulation models for decision making, accurate estimation of growth parameters and associated variances is crucial. A mixed Gompertz growth model was used to account for between-bird variation and heterogeneous variance. The mixed model had several advantages over the fixed effects model. The mixed model partitioned BW variation into between- and within-bird variation, and the covariance structure assumed with the random effect accounted for part of the BW correlation across ages in the same individual. The amount of residual variance decreased by over 55% with the mixed model. The mixed model reduced estimation biases that resulted from selective sampling. For analysis of longitudinal growth data, the mixed effects growth model is recommended.

  12. From field to globe: upscaling of crop growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bussel, van L.G.J.

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the scale of interest for application of crop growth models has extended to the region or even globe with time frames of 50-100 years. The application at larger scales of a crop growth model originally developed for a small scale without any adaptation might lead to errors and inaccuracies

  13. Limiting Shapes for Deterministic Centrally Seeded Growth Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fey-den Boer, Anne; Redig, Frank

    2007-01-01

    We study the rotor router model and two deterministic sandpile models. For the rotor router model in ℤ d , Levine and Peres proved that the limiting shape of the growth cluster is a sphere. For the other two models, only bounds in dimension 2 are known. A unified approach for these models with a

  14. Non-rigid image registration using bone growth model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bro-Nielsen, Morten; Gramkow, Claus; Kreiborg, Sven

    1997-01-01

    Non-rigid registration has traditionally used physical models like elasticity and fluids. These models are very seldom valid models of the difference between the registered images. This paper presents a non-rigid registration algorithm, which uses a model of bone growth as a model of the change b...

  15. Limiting Shapes for Deterministic Centrally Seeded Growth Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fey-den Boer, Anne; Redig, Frank

    2007-01-01

    We study the rotor router model and two deterministic sandpile models. For the rotor router model in ℤ d , Levine and Peres proved that the limiting shape of the growth cluster is a sphere. For the other two models, only bounds in dimension 2 are known. A unified approach for these models with a

  16. Modeling of dendritic growth in the presence of convection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU; Mingfang; DAI; Ting; LEE; Sungyoon; HONG; Chunpyo

    2005-01-01

    A two-dimensional coupling modified cellular automaton (MCA)-transport model has been employed to investigate the asymmetrical dendritic growth behavior in a flowing melt. In the present model, the cellular automaton method for crystal growth is incorporated with a transport model, for numerical calculating of the fluid flow and mass transport by both convection and diffusion. The MCA takes into account the effects of the thermal, the constitutional and the curvature undercoolings on dendritic growth. It also considers the preferred growth orientation of crystal and solute redistribution during solidification. In the transport model, the SIMPLE scheme and a fully implicit finite volume method are employed to solve the governing equations of momentum and species transfers. The present model was applied to simulating the evolution of a single dendrite and multi-dendrites of an Al-3mass%Cu alloy in a forced flow. The simulated results show that dendritic growth morphology is strongly influenced by melt convection.

  17. The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Holger Strulik

    2001-01-01

    Human capital accumulation is introduced in a growth model with R\\&D-driven expansion in variety and quality of intermediate goods andknowledge spillovers from both research activities. Economic growth is no longer uniquely tied to population growth as previous growth models without scale effects suggest. The model predicts that economic growth depends positively on the rate of human capital accumulation and positively or negatively on population growth and is therefore supported by empirical...

  18. A von Bertalanffy growth model with a seasonally varying coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E.; Nichols, Frederic H.

    1978-01-01

    The von Bertalanffy model of body growth is inappropriate for organisms whose growth is restricted to a seasonal period because it assumes that growth rate is invariant with time. Incorporation of a time-varying coefficient significantly improves the capability of the von Bertalanffy equation to describe changing body size of both the bivalve mollusc Macoma balthicain San Francisco Bay and the flathead sole, Hippoglossoides elassodon, in Washington state. This simple modification of the von Bertalanffy model should offer improved predictions of body growth for a variety of other aquatic animals.

  19. THE EXISTENCE THEOREM OF OPTIMAL GROWTH MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gong Liutang; Peng Xianze

    2005-01-01

    This paper proves a general existence theorem of optimal growth theory. This theorem is neither restricted to the case of a constant technology progress, nor stated in terms of mathematical conditions which have no direct economic interpretation and moreover, are difficult to apply.

  20. Modeling growth curves to track growing obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Our purpose was to examine the relationship between total physical activity (PA) and PA at various intensity levels with insulin resistance at increasing waist circumference and skinfold thickness levels. Being able to describe growth appropriately and succinctly is important in many nutrition and p...

  1. Correlated noise in a logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Bao-Quan; Wang, Xian-Ju; Liu, Guo-Tao; Liu, Liang-Gang

    2003-02-01

    The logistic differential equation is used to analyze cancer cell population, in the presence of a correlated Gaussian white noise. We study the steady state properties of tumor cell growth and discuss the effects of the correlated noise. It is found that the degree of correlation of the noise can cause tumor cell extinction.

  2. Modeling and optimization of algae growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornton, Anthony Richard; Weinhart, Thomas; Bokhove, Onno; Zhang, Bowen; van der Sar, Dick M.; Kumar, Kundan; Pisarenco, Maxim; Rudnaya, Maria; Savceno, Valeriu; Rademacher, Jens; Zijlstra, Julia; Szabelska, Alicja; Zyprych, Joanna; van der Schans, Martin; Timperio, Vincent; Veerman, Frits; Frank, J.; van der Mei, R.; den Boer, A.; Bosman, J.; Bouman, N.; van Dam, S.; Verhoef, C.

    2010-01-01

    The wastewater from greenhouses has a high amount of mineral contamination and an environmentally-friendly method of removal is to use algae to clean this runo water. The algae consume the minerals as part of their growth process. In addition to cleaning the water, the created algal bio-mass has a

  3. Modeling and optimization of algae growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornton, Anthony Richard; Weinhart, Thomas; Bokhove, Onno; Zhang, Bowen; van der Sar, Dick M.; Kumar, Kundan; Pisarenco, Maxim; Rudnaya, Maria; Savcenco, Valeriu; Rademacher, Jens; Zijlstra, Julia; Szabelska, Alicja; Zyprych, Joanna; van der Schans, Martin; Timperio, Vincent; Veerman, Frits

    2010-01-01

    The wastewater from greenhouses has a high amount of mineral contamination and an environmentally-friendly method of removal is to use algae to clean this runoff water. The algae consume the minerals as part of their growth process. In addition to cleaning the water, the created algal bio-mass has a

  4. Modeling and optimization of algae growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornton, Anthony Richard; Weinhart, Thomas; Bokhove, Onno; Zhang, Bowen; van der Sar, Dick M.; Kumar, Kundan; Pisarenco, Maxim; Rudnaya, Maria; Savceno, Valeriu; Rademacher, Jens; Zijlstra, Julia; Szabelska, Alicja; Zyprych, Joanna; van der Schans, Martin; Timperio, Vincent; Veerman, Frits; Frank, J.; van der Mei, R.; den Boer, A.; Bosman, J.; Bouman, N.; van Dam, S.; Verhoef, C.

    2010-01-01

    The wastewater from greenhouses has a high amount of mineral contamination and an environmentally-friendly method of removal is to use algae to clean this runo water. The algae consume the minerals as part of their growth process. In addition to cleaning the water, the created algal bio-mass has a v

  5. Modeling and optimization of algae growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornton, Anthony; Weinhart, Thomas; Bokhove, Onno; Zhang, Bowen; Sar, van der Dick M.; Kumar, Kundan; Pisarenco, Maxim; Rudnaya, Maria; Savceno, Valeriu; Rademacher, Jens; Zijlstra, Julia; Szabelska, Alicja; Zyprych, Joanna; Schans, van der Martin; Timperio, Vincent; Veerman, Frits; Frank, J.; van der Mei, R.; den Boer, A.; Bosman, J.; Bouman, N.; van Dam, S.; Verhoef, C.

    2010-01-01

    The wastewater from greenhouses has a high amount of mineral contamination and an environmentally-friendly method of removal is to use algae to clean this runo water. The algae consume the minerals as part of their growth process. In addition to cleaning the water, the created algal bio-mass has a v

  6. Tomato fruit growth : integrating cell division, cell growth and endoreduplication by experimentation and modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fanwoua, J.

    2012-01-01

    Keywords: cell division, cell growth, cell endoreduplication, fruit growth, genotype, G×E interaction, model, tomato. Fruit size is a major component of fruit yield and quality of many crops. Variations in fruit size can be tremendous due to genotypic and environmental factors. The mechanisms

  7. Fracture Mechanical Markov Chain Crack Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gansted, L.; Brincker, Rune; Hansen, Lars Pilegaard

    1991-01-01

    On the basis of the B-model developed in [J. L. Bogdanoff and F. Kozin, Probabilistic Models of Cumulative Damage. John Wiley, New York (1985)] a new numerical model incorporating the physical knowledge of fatigue crack propagation is developed. The model is based on the assumption that the crack...

  8. Model for the growth of the World Airline Network

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, T; Nagler, J; Andrade, J S; Herrmann, H J

    2016-01-01

    We propose a probabilistic growth model for transport networks which employs a balance between popularity of nodes and the physical distance between nodes. By comparing the degree of each node in the model network and the WAN, we observe that the difference between the two is minimized for $\\alpha\\approx 2$. Interestingly, this is the value obtained for the node-node correlation function in the WAN. This suggests that our model explains quite well the growth of airline networks.

  9. Detection of unobserved heterogeneity with growth mixture models

    OpenAIRE

    Jost Reinecke; Luca Mariotti

    2009-01-01

    Latent growth curve models as structural equation models are extensively discussedin various research fields (Duncan et al., 2006). Recent methodological and statisticalextension are focused on the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity in empiricaldata. Muth´en extended the classical structural equation approach by mixture components,i. e. categorical latent classes (Muth´en 2002, 2004, 2007).The paper will discuss applications of growth mixture models with data from oneof the first panel...

  10. Diagnosing $\\Lambda$HDE model with statefinder hierarchy and fractional growth parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Lanjun

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a new dark energy model called $\\Lambda$HDE was proposed. In this model, dark energy consists of two parts: cosmological constant $\\Lambda$ and holographic dark energy (HDE). Two key parameters of this model are the fractional density of cosmological constant $\\Omega_{\\Lambda0}$, and the dimensionless HDE parameter $c$. Since these two parameters determine the dynamical properties of DE and the destiny of universe, it is important to study the impacts of different values of $\\Omega_{\\Lambda0}$ and $c$ on the $\\Lambda$HDE model. In this paper, we apply various DE diagnostic tools to diagnose $\\Lambda$HDE models with different values of $\\Omega_{\\Lambda0}$ and $c$; these tools include statefinder hierarchy \\{$S_3^{(1)}, S_4^{(1)}$\\}, fractional growth parameter $\\epsilon$, and composite null diagnostic (CND), which is a combination of \\{$S_3^{(1)}, S_4^{(1)}$\\} and $\\epsilon$. We find that: (1) adopting different values of $\\Omega_{\\Lambda0}$ only has quantitative impacts on the evolution of the $\\Lam...

  11. Modeling Root Growth, Crop Growth and N Uptake of Winter Wheat Based on SWMS_2D: Model and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dejun Yang

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Simulations for root growth, crop growth, and N uptake in agro-hydrological models are of significant concern to researchers. SWMS_2D is one of the most widely used physical hydrologically related models. This model solves equations that govern soil-water movement by the finite element method, and has a public access source code. Incorporating key agricultural components into the SWMS_2D model is of practical importance, especially for modeling some critical cereal crops such as winter wheat. We added root growth, crop growth, and N uptake modules into SWMS_2D. The root growth model had two sub-models, one for root penetration and the other for root length distribution. The crop growth model used was adapted from EU-ROTATE_N, linked to the N uptake model. Soil-water limitation, nitrogen limitation, and temperature effects were all considered in dry-weight modeling. Field experiments for winter wheat in Bouwing, the Netherlands, in 1983-1984 were selected for validation. Good agreements were achieved between simulations and measurements, including soil water content at different depths, normalized root length distribution, dry weight and nitrogen uptake. This indicated that the proposed new modules used in the SWMS_2D model are robust and reliable. In the future, more rigorous validation should be carried out, ideally under 2D situations, and attention should be paid to improve some modules, including the module simulating soil N mineralization.

  12. Stochastic Gompertzian model for breast cancer growth process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni Binti; Rosli, Norhayati

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, a stochastic Gompertzian model is developed to describe the growth process of a breast cancer by incorporating the noisy behavior into a deterministic Gompertzian model. The prediction quality of the stochastic Gompertzian model is measured by comparing the simulated result with the clinical data of breast cancer growth. The kinetic parameters of the model are estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. 4-stage stochastic Runge-Kutta (SRK4) is used to simulate the sample path of the model. Low values of mean-square error (MSE) of stochastic model indicate good fits. It is shown that the stochastic Gompertzian model is adequate in explaining the breast cancer growth process compared to the deterministic model counterpart.

  13. A genetic investigation of various growth models to describe growth of lambs of two contrasting breeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambe, N R; Navajas, E A; Simm, G; Bünger, L

    2006-10-01

    This study compared the use of various models to describe growth in lambs of 2 contrasting breeds from birth to slaughter. Live BW records (n = 7559) from 240 Texel and 231 Scottish Blackface (SBF) lambs weighed at 2-wk intervals were modeled. Biologically relevant variables were estimated for each lamb from modified versions of the logistic, Gompertz, Richards, and exponential models, and from linear regression. In both breeds, all nonlinear models fitted the data well, with an average coefficient of determination (R2) of > 0.98. The linear model had a lower average R2 than any of the nonlinear models (growth patterns, but the Akaike's information criteria value (which weighs log-likelihood by number of parameters estimated) was similar to that of the Gompertz model. Variables A, B, C, and D were moderately to highly heritable in Texel lambs (h2 = 0.33 to 0.87), and genetic correlations between variables within-model ranged from -0.80 to 0.89, suggesting some flexibility to change the shape of the growth curve when selecting for different variables. In SBF lambs, only variables from the logistic and Gompertz models had moderate heritabilities (0.17 to 0.56), but with high genetic correlations between variables within each model ( 0.92). Selection on growth variables seems promising (in Texel more than SBF), but high genetic correlations between variables may restrict the possibilities to change the growth curve shape. A random regression model was also fitted to the data to allow predictions of growth rates at relevant time points. Heritabilities for growth rates differed markedly at various stages of growth and between the 2 breeds (Texel: 0.14 to 0.74; SBF: 0.07 to 0.34), with negative correlations between growth rate at 60 d of age and growth rate at finishing. Following these results, future studies should investigate genetic relationships between relevant growth curve variables and other important production traits, such as carcass composition and meat

  14. Modelling the Growth of Swine Flu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Ian

    2010-01-01

    The spread of swine flu has been a cause of great concern globally. With no vaccine developed as yet, (at time of writing in July 2009) and given the fact that modern-day humans can travel speedily across the world, there are fears that this disease may spread out of control. The worst-case scenario would be one of unfettered exponential growth.…

  15. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  16. A Nonlinear Viscous Model for Sn-Whisker Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Fuqian

    2016-12-01

    Based on the mechanism of the grain boundary fluid flow, a nonlinear viscous model for the growth of Sn-whiskers is proposed. This model consists of two units, one with a stress exponent of one and one with a stress exponent of n -1. By letting one of the constants be zero in the model, the constitutive relationship reduces to a linear flow relation or a power-law relation, representing the flow behavior of various metals. Closed-form solutions for the growth behavior of a whisker are derived, which can be used to predict the whisker growth and the stress evolution.

  17. Growth Model for Pulsed-Laser Deposited Perovskite Oxide Films

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Xu; FEI Yi-Yan; ZHU Xiang-Dong; Lu Hui-Bin; YANG Guo-Zhen

    2008-01-01

    We present a multi-level growth model that yields some of the key features of perovskite oxide film growth as observed in the reflection high energy electron diffraction(RHEED)and ellipsometry studies.The model describes the effect of deposition,temperature,intra-layer transport,interlayer transport and Ostwald ripening on the morphology of a growth surface in terms of the distribution of terraces and step edges during and after deposition.The numerical results of the model coincide well with the experimental observation.

  18. Plant Growth Models Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we descrive our motivation and approach to devloping models and the neural network architecture. Initial use of the artificial neural network for modeling the single plant process of transpiration is presented.

  19. A Study on Digital Analysis of Bach’s “Two-Part Inventions”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Yi Song

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the field of music composition, creating polyphony is relatively one of the most difficult parts. Among them, the basis of multivoice polyphonic composition is two-part counterpoint. The main purpose of this paper is, through the computer technology, conducting a series of studies on “Two-Part Inventions” of Bach, a Baroque polyphony master. Based on digitalization, visualization and mathematical methods, data mining algorithm has been applied to identify bipartite characteristics and rules of counterpoint polyphony. We hope that the conclusions drawn from the article could be applied to the digital creation of polyphony.

  20. Balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model for knowledge growth

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin

    2016-11-18

    In this paper we study balanced growth path solutions of a Boltzmann mean field game model proposed by Lucas and Moll [15] to model knowledge growth in an economy. Agents can either increase their knowledge level by exchanging ideas in learning events or by producing goods with the knowledge they already have. The existence of balanced growth path solutions implies exponential growth of the overall production in time. We prove existence of balanced growth path solutions if the initial distribution of individuals with respect to their knowledge level satisfies a Pareto-tail condition. Furthermore we give first insights into the existence of such solutions if in addition to production and knowledge exchange the knowledge level evolves by geometric Brownian motion.

  1. Generalized exponential function and discrete growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souto Martinez, Alexandre; Silva González, Rodrigo; Lauri Espíndola, Aquino

    2009-07-01

    Here we show that a particular one-parameter generalization of the exponential function is suitable to unify most of the popular one-species discrete population dynamic models into a simple formula. A physical interpretation is given to this new introduced parameter in the context of the continuous Richards model, which remains valid for the discrete case. From the discretization of the continuous Richards’ model (generalization of the Gompertz and Verhulst models), one obtains a generalized logistic map and we briefly study its properties. Notice, however that the physical interpretation for the introduced parameter persists valid for the discrete case. Next, we generalize the (scramble competition) θ-Ricker discrete model and analytically calculate the fixed points as well as their stabilities. In contrast to previous generalizations, from the generalized θ-Ricker model one is able to retrieve either scramble or contest models.

  2. Knowledge Growth: Applied Models of General and Individual Knowledge Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silkina, Galina Iu.; Bakanova, Svetlana A.

    2016-01-01

    The article considers the mathematical models of the growth and accumulation of scientific and applied knowledge since it is seen as the main potential and key competence of modern companies. The problem is examined on two levels--the growth and evolution of objective knowledge and knowledge evolution of a particular individual. Both processes are…

  3. Quantification of fungal growth: models, experiments, and observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamour, A.

    2002-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the growth of microscopic mycelial fungi (Section I), and that of macroscopic fungi, which form specialised hyphal structures such as rhizomorphs (Section II). A growth model is developed in Section I in relation to soil organic matter decompos

  4. The aponeurotic tension model of craniofacial growth in man.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standerwick, Richard G; Roberts, W Eugene

    2009-05-22

    Craniofacial growth is a scientific crossroad for the fundamental mechanisms of musculoskeletal physiology. Better understanding of growth and development will provide new insights into repair, regeneration and adaptation to applied loads. Traditional craniofacial growth concepts are insufficient to explain the dynamics of airway/vocal tract development, cranial rotation, basicranial flexion and the role of the cranial base in expression of facial proportions. A testable hypothesis is needed to explore the physiological pressure propelling midface growth and the role of neural factors in expression of musculoskeletal adaptation after the cessation of anterior cranial base growth. A novel model for craniofacial growth is proposed for: 1. brain growth and craniofacial adaptation up to the age of 20; 2. explaining growth force vectors; 3. defining the role of muscle plasticity as a conduit for craniofacial growth forces; and 4. describing the effect of cranial rotation in the expression of facial form.Growth of the viscerocranium is believed to be influenced by the superficial musculoaponeurotic systems (SMAS) of the head through residual tension in the occipitofrontalis muscle as a result of cephalad brain growth and cranial rotation. The coordinated effects of the regional SMAS develop a craniofacial musculoaponeurotic system (CFMAS), which is believed to affect maxillary and mandibular development.

  5. Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Bansal, Shweta; Viboud, Cécile

    2016-09-01

    There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we review mathematical models that incorporate spatial details or realistic population mixing structures, including meta-population models, individual-based network models, and simple SIR-type models that incorporate the effects of reactive behavior changes or inhomogeneous mixing. In this process, we also analyze simulation data stemming from detailed large-scale agent-based models previously designed and calibrated to study how realistic social networks and disease transmission characteristics shape early epidemic growth patterns, general transmission dynamics, and control of international disease emergencies such as the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

  6. A review of stand basal area growth models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Hong-gang; Zhang Jian-guo; Duan Ai-guo; He Cai-yun

    2007-01-01

    Growth and yield modeling has a long history in forestry. The methods of measuring the growth of stand basal area have evolved from those developed in the U.S.A. and Germany during the last century. Stand basal area modeling has progressed rapidly since the first widely used model was published by the U.S. Forest Service. Over the years, a variety of models have been developed for predicting the growth and yield of uneven/even-aged stands using stand-level approaches. The modeling methodology has not only moved from an empirical approach to a more ecological process-based approach but also accommodated a variety of techniques such as: 1) simultaneous equation methods, 2) difference models, 3) artificial neural network techniques, 4) linear/nonlinear regression models, and 5) matrix models. Empirical models using statistical methods were developed to reproduce accurately and precisely field observations. In contrast, process models have a shorter history, developed originally as research and education tools with the aim of increasing the understanding of cause and effect relationships. Empirical and process models can be married into hybrid models in which the shortcomings of both component approaches can, to some extent, be overcome. Algebraic difference forms of stand basal area models which consist of stand age, stand density and site quality can fully describe stand growth dynamics. This paper reviews the current literature regarding stand basal area models, discusses the basic types of models and their merits and outlines recent progress in modeling growth and dynamics of stand basal area. Future trends involving algebraic difference forms, good fitting variables and model types into stand basal area modeling strategies are discussed.

  7. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia); Bahar, Arifah [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor and UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)

    2015-02-03

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  8. Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect to cervical cancer growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni binti; Rosli, Norhayati binti; Bahar, Arifah

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, a Gompertzian stochastic model with time delay is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via Levenberg-Marquardt optimization method of non-linear least squares. We apply Milstein scheme for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of cervical cancer growth. Low values of Mean-Square Error (MSE) of Gompertzian stochastic model with delay effect indicate good fits.

  9. A Gompertzian model with random effects to cervical cancer growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazlan, Mazma Syahidatul Ayuni; Rosli, Norhayati [Faculty of Industrial Sciences and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Pahang, Lebuhraya Tun Razak, 26300 Gambang, Pahang (Malaysia)

    2015-05-15

    In this paper, a Gompertzian model with random effects is introduced to describe the cervical cancer growth. The parameters values of the mathematical model are estimated via maximum likehood estimation. We apply 4-stage Runge-Kutta (SRK4) for solving the stochastic model numerically. The efficiency of mathematical model is measured by comparing the simulated result and the clinical data of the cervical cancer growth. Low values of root mean-square error (RMSE) of Gompertzian model with random effect indicate good fits.

  10. 3D modeling of metallic grain growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, D.; Carlson, N.; Gammel, J.T.; Kuprat, A.

    1999-06-01

    This paper will describe simulating metallic grain growth using the Gradient Weighted Moving Finite Elements code, GRAIN3D. The authors also describe the set of mesh topology change operations developed to respond to changes in the physical topology such as the collapse of grains and to maintain uniform calculational mesh quality. Validation of the method is demonstrated by comparison to analytic calculations. The authors present results of multigrain simulations where grain boundaries evolve by mean curvature motion and include results which incorporate grain boundary orientation dependence.

  11. Modeling the response of peach fruit growth to water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Génard, M; Huguet, J G

    1996-04-01

    We applied a semi-mechanistic model of fresh matter accumulation to peach fruit during the stage of rapid mesocarp development. The model, which is based on simple hypotheses of fluid flows into and out of the fruit, assumes that solution flow into the fruit increases with fruit weight and transpiration per unit weight, and decreases with the maximum daily shrinkage of the trunk, which was used as an indicator of water stress. Fruit transpiration was assumed to increase with fruit size and with radiation. Fruit respiration was considered to be related to fruit growth and to temperature. The model simulates variability in growth among fruits according to climatic conditions, degree of water stress and weight of the fruit at the beginning of the simulation. We used data obtained from well-watered and water-stressed trees grown in containers to estimate model parameters and to test the model. There was close agreement between the simulated and measured values. A sensitivity analysis showed that initial fruit weight partly determined the variation in growth among fruits. The analysis also indicated that there was an optimal irradiance for fruit growth and that the effect of high global radiation on growth varied according to the stage of fruit development. Water stress, which was the most important factor influencing fruit growth, rapidly depressed growth, particularly when applied late in the season.

  12. Modelling Growth Curves in a Nondescript Italian Chicken Breed

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Maria Selvaggi; Vito Laudadio; Cataldo Dario; Vincenzo Tufarelli

    2015-01-01

    ... it. This study was carried out to estimate the parameters of logistic, Gompertz and Richards growth curve models in a nondescript chicken breed population from southern Italy to determine the goodness of fit...

  13. Connection between stochastic and deterministic modelling of microbial growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutalik, Zoltán; Razaz, Moe; Baranyi, József

    2005-01-21

    We present in this paper various links between individual and population cell growth. Deterministic models of the lag and subsequent growth of a bacterial population and their connection with stochastic models for the lag and subsequent generation times of individual cells are analysed. We derived the individual lag time distribution inherent in population growth models, which shows that the Baranyi model allows a wide range of shapes for individual lag time distribution. We demonstrate that individual cell lag time distributions cannot be retrieved from population growth data. We also present the results of our investigation on the effect of the mean and variance of the individual lag time and the initial cell number on the mean and variance of the population lag time. These relationships are analysed theoretically, and their consequence for predictive microbiology research is discussed.

  14. Snowflake growth in three dimensions using phase field modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Demange, G; Patte, R; Brunel, M

    2016-01-01

    Snowflake growth provides us with a fascinating example of spontaneous pattern formation in nature. Attempts to understand this phenomenon have led to important insights in non-equilibrium dynamics observed in various active scientific fields, ranging from pattern formation in physical and chemical systems, to self-assembly problems in biology. Yet, very few models currently succeed in reproducing the diversity of snowflake forms in three dimensions, and the link between model parameters and thermodynamic quantities is not established. Here, we report a modified phase field model that describes the subtlety of the ice vapour phase transition, through anisotropic water molecules attachment and condensation, surface diffusion, and strong anisotropic surface tension, that guarantee the anisotropy, faceting and dendritic growth of snowflakes. We demonstrate that this model reproduces the growth dynamics of the most challenging morphologies of snowflakes from the Nakaya diagram. We find that the growth dynamics of...

  15. A Model for the Growth of Self-Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guest, Gerald R.; Thomson, Eric W.

    1972-01-01

    Teachers must play a more consciously active role in fostering healthy self esteem in children. To make such action more likely to occur successfully, a model is presented to conceptualize the dynamics of growth in positive self concept. (Author)

  16. Modelling of the growth of a methanotrophic biofilm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arcangeli, J.-P.; Arvin, E.

    1997-01-01

    . It indicated that the most influential factors were those related to the biofilm (i.e. density; solid volume fraction; thickness). This suggests that in order to improve the model, further research is needed in the field of biofilm structure and composition. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.......A model describing the growth of a methanotrophic biofilm is presented. This model involves simultaneous growth of methanotrophs, heterotrophs and nitrifiers. Heterotrophic biomass grows on soluble polymers which arise from the hydrolysis of dead biomass entrapped in the biofilm. Nitrifiers develop...... because of the presence of ammonia in the mineral medium. A comparison of this model with experimental data showed that the biofilm growth, methane removal, oxygen consumption, product formation and biofilm detachment could be fitted well. Parameter estimation yielded a maximum growth rate...

  17. Mediation Analysis in a Latent Growth Curve Modeling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Soest, Tilmann; Hagtvet, Knut A.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents several longitudinal mediation models in the framework of latent growth curve modeling and provides a detailed account of how such models can be constructed. Logical and statistical challenges that might arise when such analyses are conducted are also discussed. Specifically, we discuss how the initial status (intercept) and…

  18. Sharp-interface model of electrodeposition and ramified growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christoffer Peder; Bruus, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    We present a sharp-interface model of two-dimensional ramified growth during quasisteady electrodeposition. Our model differs from previous modeling methods in that it includes the important effects of extended space-charge regions and nonlinear electrode reactions. The electrokinetics is describ...

  19. Solving Cocoa Pod Sigmoid Growth Model with Newton Raphson Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Albert Ling Sheng; Maisin, Navies

    Cocoa pod growth modelling are useful in crop management, pest and disease management and yield forecasting. Recently, the Beta Growth Function has been used to determine the pod growth model due to its unique for the plant organ growth which is zero growth rate at both the start and end of a precisely defined growth period. Specific pod size (7cm to 10cm in length) is useful in cocoa pod borer (CPB) management for pod sleeving or pesticide spraying. The Beta Growth Function is well-fitted to the pods growth data of four different cocoa clones under non-linear function with time (t) as its independent variable which measured pod length and diameter weekly started at 8 weeks after fertilization occur until pods ripen. However, the same pod length among the clones did not indicate the same pod age since the morphological characteristics for cocoa pods vary among the clones. Depending on pod size for all the clones as guideline in CPB management did not give information on pod age, therefore it is important to study the pod age at specific pod sizes on different clones. Hence, Newton Raphson method is used to solve the non-linear equation of the Beta Growth Function of four different group of cocoa pod at specific pod size.

  20. A Cost-Effective Two-Part Experiment for Teaching Introductory Organic Chemistry Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadek, Christopher M.; Brown, Brenna A.; Wan, Hayley

    2011-01-01

    This two-part laboratory experiment is designed to be a cost-effective method for teaching basic organic laboratory techniques (recrystallization, thin-layer chromatography, column chromatography, vacuum filtration, and melting point determination) to large classes of introductory organic chemistry students. Students are exposed to different…

  1. Escherichia coli growth under modeled reduced gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Paul W.; Meyer, Michelle L.; Leff, Laura G.

    2004-01-01

    Bacteria exhibit varying responses to modeled reduced gravity that can be simulated by clino-rotation. When Escherichia coli was subjected to different rotation speeds during clino-rotation, significant differences between modeled reduced gravity and normal gravity controls were observed only at higher speeds (30-50 rpm). There was no apparent affect of removing samples on the results obtained. When E. coli was grown in minimal medium (at 40 rpm), cell size was not affected by modeled reduced gravity and there were few differences in cell numbers. However, in higher nutrient conditions (i.e., dilute nutrient broth), total cell numbers were higher and cells were smaller under reduced gravity compared to normal gravity controls. Overall, the responses to modeled reduced gravity varied with nutrient conditions; larger surface to volume ratios may help compensate for the zone of nutrient depletion around the cells under modeled reduced gravity.

  2. Modeling growth of mandibles in the Western Arctic caribou herd

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay M. Ver Hoef

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available We compared growth curves for ramus length and diastema length from two autumn collections of mandibles of male Western Arctic Herd caribou in Alaska. We were primarily interested in determining if growth curves of caribou mandibles differed between caribou born during 1959-1967, after the herd had been high for several years and was probably declining in size, and those born during 1976-1988, when the herd was increasing in size. To compare these growth curves, we used a nonlinear model and used maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood ratio tests. We found that growth rates were similar between periods, but intercepts and variances of growth curves differed. From this we infer that calves were smaller in autumn during the 1960s and that significant compensatory growth did not occur later in life.

  3. Lattice Boltzmann models for the grain growth in polycrystalline systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonggang Zheng

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, lattice Boltzmann models are proposed for the computer simulation of normal grain growth in two-dimensional systems with/without immobile dispersed second-phase particles and involving the temperature gradient effect. These models are demonstrated theoretically to be equivalent to the phase field models based on the multiscale expansion. Simulation results of several representative examples show that the proposed models can effectively and accurately simulate the grain growth in various single- and two-phase systems. It is found that the grain growth in single-phase polycrystalline materials follows the power-law kinetics and the immobile second-phase particles can inhibit the grain growth in two-phase systems. It is further demonstrated that the grain growth can be tuned by the second-phase particles and the introduction of temperature gradient is also an effective way for the fabrication of polycrystalline materials with grained gradient microstructures. The proposed models are useful for the numerical design of the microstructure of materials and provide effective tools to guide the experiments. Moreover, these models can be easily extended to simulate two- and three-dimensional grain growth with considering the mobile second-phase particles, transient heat transfer, melt convection, etc.

  4. Lattice Boltzmann models for the grain growth in polycrystalline systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yonggang; Chen, Cen; Ye, Hongfei; Zhang, Hongwu

    2016-08-01

    In the present work, lattice Boltzmann models are proposed for the computer simulation of normal grain growth in two-dimensional systems with/without immobile dispersed second-phase particles and involving the temperature gradient effect. These models are demonstrated theoretically to be equivalent to the phase field models based on the multiscale expansion. Simulation results of several representative examples show that the proposed models can effectively and accurately simulate the grain growth in various single- and two-phase systems. It is found that the grain growth in single-phase polycrystalline materials follows the power-law kinetics and the immobile second-phase particles can inhibit the grain growth in two-phase systems. It is further demonstrated that the grain growth can be tuned by the second-phase particles and the introduction of temperature gradient is also an effective way for the fabrication of polycrystalline materials with grained gradient microstructures. The proposed models are useful for the numerical design of the microstructure of materials and provide effective tools to guide the experiments. Moreover, these models can be easily extended to simulate two- and three-dimensional grain growth with considering the mobile second-phase particles, transient heat transfer, melt convection, etc.

  5. The Study on Business Growth Process Management Entropy Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Duan

    Enterprise's growth is a dynamic process. The factors of enterprise development are changing all the time. For this reason, it is difficult to study management entropy growth-oriented enterprises from static view. Its characteristic is the business enterprise growth stage, and puts forward a kind of measuring and calculating model based on enterprise management entropy for business scale, the enterprise ability and development speed. According to entropy measured by the model, enterprise can adopt revolution measure in the moment of truth. It can make the enterprise avoid crisis and take the road of sustainable development.

  6. Modelling Fractal Growth of Bacillus subtilis on Agar Plates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogedby, Hans C.

    1991-02-01

    The observed fractal growth of a bacterial colony of Bacillus subtilis on agar plates is simulated by a simple computer model in two dimensions. Growth morphologies are shown and the fractal dimension is computed. The concentration of nutrients and the time scale ratio of bacterial multiplication and nutrient diffusion are the variable parameters in the model. Fractal growth is observed in the simulations for moderate concentrations and time scale ratios. The simulated morphologies are similar to the ones grown in the biological experiment. The phenomenon is analogous to the fractal morphologies of lipid layers grown on a water surface.

  7. Modeling Surface Growth of Escherichia coli on Agar Plates

    OpenAIRE

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Morozumi, Satoshi

    2005-01-01

    Surface growth of Escherichia coli cells on a membrane filter placed on a nutrient agar plate under various conditions was studied with a mathematical model. The surface growth of bacterial cells showed a sigmoidal curve with time on a semilogarithmic plot. To describe it, a new logistic model that we presented earlier (H. Fujikawa et al., Food Microbiol. 21:501-509, 2004) was modified. Growth curves at various constant temperatures (10 to 34°C) were successfully described with the modified m...

  8. Modeling of Craniofacial Anatomy, Variation, and Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Signe Strann

    The topic of this thesis is automatic analysis of craniofacial images with respect to changes due to growth and surgery, inter-subject variation and intracranial volume estimation. The methods proposed contribute to the knowledge about specific craniofacial anomalies, as well as provide a tool...... for detailed analyses for clinical and research purposes. Most of the applications in this thesis rely on non-rigid image registration by the means of warping one image into the coordinate system of another image. This warping results in a deformation field that describes the anatomical correspondence between...... the two images. To elaborate further: a computational atlas of the average anatomy was constructed. Using non-rigid registration, image data from a subject is automatically transformed into the coordinate space of the atlas. In this process, all knowledge built into the atlas is transferred to the subject...

  9. Another brick in the cell wall: biosynthesis dependent growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbacci, Adelin; Lahaye, Marc; Magnenet, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Expansive growth of plant cell is conditioned by the cell wall ability to extend irreversibly. This process is possible if (i) a tensile stress is developed in the cell wall due to the coupling effect between turgor pressure and the modulation of its mechanical properties through enzymatic and physicochemical reactions and if (ii) new cell wall elements can be synthesized and assembled to the existing wall. In other words, expansive growth is the result of coupling effects between mechanical, thermal and chemical energy. To have a better understanding of this process, models must describe the interplay between physical or mechanical variable with biological events. In this paper we propose a general unified and theoretical framework to model growth in function of energy forms and their coupling. This framework is based on irreversible thermodynamics. It is then applied to model growth of the internodal cell of Chara corallina modulated by changes in pressure and temperature. The results describe accurately cell growth in term of length increment but also in term of cell pectate biosynthesis and incorporation to the expanding wall. Moreover, the classical growth model based on Lockhart's equation such as the one proposed by Ortega, appears as a particular and restrictive case of the more general growth equation developed in this paper.

  10. Another brick in the cell wall: biosynthesis dependent growth model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelin Barbacci

    Full Text Available Expansive growth of plant cell is conditioned by the cell wall ability to extend irreversibly. This process is possible if (i a tensile stress is developed in the cell wall due to the coupling effect between turgor pressure and the modulation of its mechanical properties through enzymatic and physicochemical reactions and if (ii new cell wall elements can be synthesized and assembled to the existing wall. In other words, expansive growth is the result of coupling effects between mechanical, thermal and chemical energy. To have a better understanding of this process, models must describe the interplay between physical or mechanical variable with biological events. In this paper we propose a general unified and theoretical framework to model growth in function of energy forms and their coupling. This framework is based on irreversible thermodynamics. It is then applied to model growth of the internodal cell of Chara corallina modulated by changes in pressure and temperature. The results describe accurately cell growth in term of length increment but also in term of cell pectate biosynthesis and incorporation to the expanding wall. Moreover, the classical growth model based on Lockhart's equation such as the one proposed by Ortega, appears as a particular and restrictive case of the more general growth equation developed in this paper.

  11. Eye growth and myopia development: Unifying theory and Matlab model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, George K; Mahadas, Kausalendra; Mohammad, Faisal

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this article is to present an updated unifying theory of the mechanisms underlying eye growth and myopia development. A series of model simulation programs were developed to illustrate the mechanism of eye growth regulation and myopia development. Two fundamental processes are presumed to govern the relationship between physiological optics and eye growth: genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback. Cornea/lens is considered to have only a genetically pre-programmed component, whereas eye growth is considered to have both a genetically pre-programmed and a blur feedback component. Moreover, based on the Incremental Retinal-Defocus Theory (IRDT), the rate of change of blur size provides the direction for blur-driven regulation. The various factors affecting eye growth are shown in 5 simulations: (1 - unregulated eye growth): blur feedback is rendered ineffective, as in the case of form deprivation, so there is only genetically pre-programmed eye growth, generally resulting in myopia; (2 - regulated eye growth): blur feedback regulation demonstrates the emmetropization process, with abnormally excessive or reduced eye growth leading to myopia and hyperopia, respectively; (3 - repeated near-far viewing): simulation of large-to-small change in blur size as seen in the accommodative stimulus/response function, and via IRDT as well as nearwork-induced transient myopia (NITM), leading to the development of myopia; (4 - neurochemical bulk flow and diffusion): release of dopamine from the inner plexiform layer of the retina, and the subsequent diffusion and relay of neurochemical cascade show that a decrease in dopamine results in a reduction of proteoglycan synthesis rate, which leads to myopia; (5 - Simulink model): model of genetically pre-programmed signaling and blur feedback components that allows for different input functions to simulate experimental manipulations that result in hyperopia, emmetropia, and myopia. These model simulation programs

  12. Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

  13. Modeling and simulation of Si crystal growth from melt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Lijun; Liu, Xin; Li, Zaoyang [National Engineering Research Center for Fluid Machinery and Compressors, School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi' an Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi 710049 (China); Miyazawa, Hiroaki; Nakano, Satoshi; Kakimoto, Koichi [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Kasuga 816-8580 (Japan)

    2009-07-01

    A numerical simulator was developed with a global model of heat transfer for any crystal growth taking place at high temperature. Convective, conductive and radiative heat transfers in the furnace are solved together in a conjugated way by a finite volume method. A three-dimensional (3D) global model was especially developed for simulation of heat transfer in any crystal growth with 3D features. The model enables 3D global simulation be conducted with moderate requirement of computer resources. The application of this numerical simulator to a CZ growth and a directional solidification process for Si crystals, the two major production methods for crystalline Si for solar cells, was introduced. Some typical results were presented, showing the importance and effectiveness of numerical simulation in analyzing and improving these kinds of Si crystal growth processes from melt. (copyright 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  14. A mathematical model of microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakeri, Noorhadila Mohd; Jamaian, Siti Suhana

    2017-08-01

    Microalgae are unicellular organisms, which exist individually or in chains or groups but can be utilized in many applications. Researchers have done various efforts in order to increase the growth rate of microalgae. Microalgae have a potential as an effective tool for wastewater treatment, besides as a replacement for natural fuel such as coal and biodiesel. The growth of microalgae can be estimated by using Geider model, which this model is based on photosynthesis irradiance curve (PI-curve) and focused on flat panel photobioreactor. Therefore, in this study a mathematical model for microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor is proposed based on the Geider model. The light irradiance is the crucial part that affects the growth rate of microalgae. The absorbed photon flux will be determined by calculating the average light irradiance in a cylindrical system illuminated by unidirectional parallel flux and considering the cylinder as a collection of differential parallelepipeds. Results from this study showed that the specific growth rate of microalgae increases until the constant level is achieved. Therefore, the proposed mathematical model can be used to estimate the rate of microalgae growth in cylindrical photobioreactor.

  15. Surface-bounded growth modeling applied to human mandibles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Per Rønsholt

    1999-01-01

    This thesis presents mathematical and computational techniques for three dimensional growth modeling applied to human mandibles. The longitudinal shape changes make the mandible a complex bone. The teeth erupt and the condylar processes change direction, from pointing predominantly backward...... to yield a spatially dense field. Different methods for constructing the sparse field are compared. Adaptive Gaussian smoothing is the preferred method since it is parameter free and yields good results in practice. A new method, geometry-constrained diffusion, is used to simplify The most successful...... growth model is linear and based on results from shape analysis and principal component analysis. The growth model is tested in a cross validation study with good results. The worst case mean modeling error in the cross validation study is 3.7 mm. It occurs when modeling the shape and size of a 12 years...

  16. Non-linear Growth Models in Mplus and SAS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Kevin J; Ram, Nilam

    2009-10-01

    Non-linear growth curves or growth curves that follow a specified non-linear function in time enable researchers to model complex developmental patterns with parameters that are easily interpretable. In this paper we describe how a variety of sigmoid curves can be fit using the Mplus structural modeling program and the non-linear mixed-effects modeling procedure NLMIXED in SAS. Using longitudinal achievement data collected as part of a study examining the effects of preschool instruction on academic gain we illustrate the procedures for fitting growth models of logistic, Gompertz, and Richards functions. Brief notes regarding the practical benefits, limitations, and choices faced in the fitting and estimation of such models are included.

  17. A novel computer simulation for modeling grain growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, L.Q. (Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering)

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, the author proposes a new computer simulation model for investigating grain growth kinetics, born from the recent work on the domain growth kinetics of a quenched system with many non-conserved order parameters. A key new feature of this model for studying grain growth is that the grain boundaries are diffuse, as opposed to previous meanfield and statistical theories and Monte-Carlo simulations which assumed that grain boundaries were sharp. Unlike the Monte-Carlo simulations in which grain boundaries are made up of kinks, grain boundaries in the continuum model are smooth. Below, he describes this model in detail, give prescriptions for computer simulation, and then present computer simulation results on a two-dimensional model system.

  18. A dynamic model for tumour growth and metastasis formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, Volker; Schumacher, Udo

    2012-07-05

    A simple and fast computational model to describe the dynamics of tumour growth and metastasis formation is presented. The model is based on the calculation of successive generations of tumour cells and enables one to describe biologically important entities like tumour volume, time point of 1st metastatic growth or number of metastatic colonies at a given time. The model entirely relies on the chronology of these successive events of the metastatic cascade. The simulation calculations were performed for two embedded growth models to describe the Gompertzian like growth behaviour of tumours. The initial training of the models was carried out using an analytical solution for the size distribution of metastases of a hepatocellular carcinoma. We then show the applicability of our models to clinical data from the Munich Cancer Registry. Growth and dissemination characteristics of metastatic cells originating from cells in the primary breast cancer can be modelled thus showing its ability to perform systematic analyses relevant for clinical breast cancer research and treatment. In particular, our calculations show that generally metastases formation has already been initiated before the primary can be detected clinically.

  19. Stochastically modeling Listeria monocytogenes growth in farm tank milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Isabelle; Pouillot, Régis; Denis, Jean-Baptiste

    2005-10-01

    This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.

  20. Modeling Dynamic Height and Crown Growth in Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, O.; Fransson, P.; Brännström, Å.

    2015-12-01

    Previously we have shown how principles based on productivity maximization (e.g. maximization of net primary production, net growth maximization, or functional balance) can explain allocation responses to resources, such as nutrients and light (Franklin et al., 2012). However, the success of these approaches depend on how well they align with the ultimate driver of plant behavior, fitness, or life time reproductive success. Consequently, they may not fully explain how allocation changes during the life cycle of trees where not only growth but also survival and reproduction are important. In addition, maximizing instantaneous productivity does not account for path dependence of tree growth. For example, maximizing productivity during early growth in shade may delay emergence in the forest canopy and reduce lifetime fitness compared to a more height oriented strategy. Here we present an approach to model how growth of stem diameter and leaf area in relation to stem height dynamically responds to light conditions in a way that maximizes life-time fitness (rather than instantaneous growth). The model is able to predict growth of trees growing in different types of forests, including trees emerging under a closed canopy and seedlings planted in a clear-cut area. It can also predict the response to sudden changes in the light environment, due to disturbances or harvesting. We envisage two main applications of the model, (i) Modeling effects of forest management, including thinning and planting (ii) Elucidating height growth strategies in trees and how they can be represented in vegetation models. ReferenceFranklin O, Johansson J, Dewar RC, Dieckmann U, McMurtrie RE, Brännström Å, Dybzinski R. 2012. Modeling carbon allocation in trees: a search for principles. Tree Physiology 32(6): 648-666.

  1. Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    Failure times of a software reliability growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

  2. Monte Carlo grain growth modeling with local temperature gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Y.; Maniatty, A. M.; Zheng, C.; Wen, J. T.

    2017-09-01

    This work investigated the development of a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach to modeling grain growth in the presence of non-uniform temperature field that may vary with time. We first scale the MC model to physical growth processes by fitting experimental data. Based on the scaling relationship, we derive a grid site selection probability (SSP) function to consider the effect of a spatially varying temperature field. The SSP function is based on the differential MC step, which allows it to naturally consider time varying temperature fields too. We verify the model and compare the predictions to other existing formulations (Godfrey and Martin 1995 Phil. Mag. A 72 737-49 Radhakrishnan and Zacharia 1995 Metall. Mater. Trans. A 26 2123-30) in simple two-dimensional cases with only spatially varying temperature fields, where the predicted grain growth in regions of constant temperature are expected to be the same as for the isothermal case. We also test the model in a more realistic three-dimensional case with a temperature field varying in both space and time, modeling grain growth in the heat affected zone of a weld. We believe the newly proposed approach is promising for modeling grain growth in material manufacturing processes that involves time-dependent local temperature gradient.

  3. Modeling Reliability Growth in Accelerated Stress Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    projection models for both continuous use and discrete use systems found anywhere in the literature. The review comprises a synopsis of over 80...pertaining to the research that may have been unfamiliar to the reader. The Chapter has provided a synopsis of the research accomplished in the fields of...Cox, "Analysis of the probability and risk of cause specific failure," International Journal of Radiology Oncology, Biology, Physics, vol. 29, no. 5

  4. GROWTH ANALYSIS IN RABBIT USING GOMPERTZ NON-LINEAR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Setiaji

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available An experiment was conducted to compare the growth curve of rabbit. Three breeds of rabbit,namely Indonesian Local Rabbit (IL, Flamish Giant (FG and Rex (R were used in the study.Individual body weights of each breed was measured from birth to 63 days of age with 3-days interval.Those periodical data were separated into different sex, be then it was averaged to analysis growthpattern. Growth curve parameters were estimated to fit growth data. There was no difference in bodyweight between sexs within breed. Indonesian local rabbit had the lowest body weight. The resultsshowed that growth curve paramaters among three breeds were significantly different (P<0.05 for bothsexes. FG had the highest value of asymptotic mature weight, followed by R and IL. In conclusion,Gompertz model was excellent fit for the growth data in rabbit with a high coefficient determination (R2= 0.999.

  5. Development of the two-part pattern during regeneration of the head in hydra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bode, Matthias; Awad, T A; Koizumi, O;

    1988-01-01

    The head of a hydra is composed of two parts, a domed hypostome with a mouth at the top and a ring of tentacles below. When animals are decapitated a new head regenerates. During the process of regeneration the apical tip passes through a transient stage in which it exhibits tentacle...... began evaginating in a ring, both the TS-19 antigen and RLI+ ganglion cells gradually disappeared from the presumptive hypostome area and RLI+ sensory cells appeared at the apex. By tracking tissue movements during morphogenesis it became clear that the apical cap, in which these changes took place, did...... not undergo tissue turnover. The implications of this tentacle-like stage for patterning the two-part head are discussed....

  6. Model for the growth of the world airline network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, T.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Nagler, J.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2016-06-01

    We propose a probabilistic growth model for transport networks which employs a balance between popularity of nodes and the physical distance between nodes. By comparing the degree of each node in the model network and the World Airline Network (WAN), we observe that the difference between the two is minimized for α≈2. Interestingly, this is the value obtained for the node-node correlation function in the WAN. This suggests that our model explains quite well the growth of airline networks.

  7. Using Calculus to Model the Growth of L. Plantarum Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Carey

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Experimental data for the growth of Lactobacillus plantarum bacteria have been obtained over time, creating the need for mathematical means to model this data. We use the Gompertz model because it is a sigmoid function for a time series, where growth is slowest at the start and end of a time period. The Gompertz model is especially useful because it defines specific parameters that characterize the S-shaped curve. In addition, the Gompertz model uses relative growth, which is the logarithm of the given population compared to the initial population. This reflects the fact that bacteria grow exponentially. The important parameters that were found were the lag time and the asymptote.

  8. Double sigmoidal models describing the growth of coffee berries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tales Jesus Fernandes

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: This study aimed to verify if the growth pattern of coffee berries, considering fresh mass accumulation over time, is double sigmoid and to select the most suitable nonlinear model to describe such behavior. Data used consisted of fourteen longitudinal observations of average fresh mass of coffee berries obtained in an experiment with the cultivar Obatã IAC 1669-20. The fits provided by the Logistic and Gompertz models were compared in their single and double versions. Parameters were estimated using the least squares method using the Gauss-Newton algorithm implemented in the nls function of the R software. It can be concluded that the growth pattern of the coffee fruit, in fresh mass accumulation, is double sigmoid. The double Gompertz and double Logistic models were adequate to describe such a growth curve, with a superiority of the double Logistic model.

  9. Government spending in a New Keynesian Endogenous Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuehn, S.; Veen, van A.P. (Tom); Muysken, J.

    2009-01-01

    Standard New Keynesian models cannot generate the widely observed result that private consumption is crowded in by government spending. We use a New Keynesian endogenous growth model with endogenous labour supply to analyse this phenomenon. The presence of small direct productivity effects of govern

  10. Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistributio...

  11. Crustal growth at active continental margins: Numerical modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogt, Katharina|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/370618947; Gerya, Taras; Castro, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics and melt sources for crustal growth at active continental margins are analyzed by using a 2D coupled petrological–thermomechanical numerical model of an oceanic-continental subduction zone. This model includes spontaneous slab retreat and bending, dehydration of subducted crust, aqueous

  12. Regressional modeling and forecasting of economic growth for arkhangelsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Mikhailovich Nizhegorodtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The regression models of GRP, considering the impact of three main factors: investment in fixed assets, wages amount, and, importantly, the innovation factor –the expenditures for research and development, are constructed in this paper on the empirical data for Arkhangelsk region. That approach permits to evaluate explicitly the contribution of innovation to economic growth. Regression analysis is the main research instrument, all calculations areperformedin the Microsoft Excel. There were made meaningful conclusions regarding the potential of the region's GRP growth by various factors, including impacts of positive and negative time lags. Adequate and relevant models are the base for estimation and forecasting values of the dependent variable (GRP and evaluating their confidence intervals. The invented method of research can be used in factor assessment and prediction of regional economic growth, including growth by expectations.

  13. Spending Natural Resource Revenues in an Altruistic Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    This paper examines how revenues from a natural resource interact with growth and welfare in an overlapping generations model with altruism. The revenues are allocated between public productive services and direct transfers to members of society by spending policies. We analyze how these policies...... influence the dynamics, and how the dynamics are influenced by the abundance of the revenue. Abundant revenues may harm growth, but growth and welfare can be oppositely affected. We also provide the socially optimal policy. Overall, the analysis suggests that variation in the strength of altruism...

  14. STABILITY ANALYSIS OF TWO-SECTORS STOCHASTIC ECONOMIC GROWTH MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shaobo ZHOU; Shigeng HU

    2007-01-01

    In the paper, we investigate the stability of a two-sector economic growth model under stochastic case. A two-dimensional stochastic differential system is deduced by Ito's formula, by using Lyapunov function methods, whether the growth rates of physical capital and human capital are exponentially stable or unstable depends on the values for parameters. Finally, we also illustrate the results with two examples.

  15. Stability Analysis of a Model of Atherosclerotic Plaque Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushruth Reddy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Atherosclerosis, the formation of life-threatening plaques in blood vessels, is a form of cardiovascular disease. In this paper, we analyze a simplified model of plaque growth to derive physically meaningful results about the growth of plaques. In particular, the main results of this paper are two conditions, which express that the immune response increases as LDL cholesterol levels increase and that diffusion prevails over inflammation in a healthy artery.

  16. Quantitative model of the growth of floodplains by vertical accretion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, J.A.; Troutman, B.M.

    2000-01-01

    A simple one-dimensional model is developed to quantitatively predict the change in elevation, over a period of decades, for vertically accreting floodplains. This unsteady model approximates the monotonic growth of a floodplain as an incremental but constant increase of net sediment deposition per flood for those floods of a partial duration series that exceed a threshold discharge corresponding to the elevation of the floodplain. Sediment deposition from each flood increases the elevation of the floodplain and consequently the magnitude of the threshold discharge resulting in a decrease in the number of floods and growth rate of the floodplain. Floodplain growth curves predicted by this model are compared to empirical growth curves based on dendrochronology and to direct field measurements at five floodplain sites. The model was used to predict the value of net sediment deposition per flood which best fits (in a least squares sense) the empirical and field measurements; these values fall within the range of independent estimates of the net sediment deposition per flood based on empirical equations. These empirical equations permit the application of the model to estimate of floodplain growth for other floodplains throughout the world which do not have detailed data of sediment deposition during individual floods. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

  17. Human growth and body weight dynamics: an integrative systems model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%-24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.

  18. Scale-free network models with accelerating growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huan LI

    2009-01-01

    Complex networks are everywhere. A typical ex-ample is software network. Basing on analyzing evolutive structure of the software networks, we consider accelerat-ing growth of network as power-law growth, which can be more easily generalized to real systems than linear growth. For accelerating growth via a power law and scale-free state with preferential linking, we focus on exploring the generic property of complex networks. Generally, two scenarios are possible. In one of them, the links are undirected. In the other scenario, the links are directed. We propose two mod-els that can predict the emergence of power-law growth and scale-free state in good agreement with these two scenar-ios and can simulate much more real systems than existing scale-free network models. Moreover, we use the obtained predictions to fit accelerating growth and the connectivity distribution of software networks describing scale-free struc-ture. The combined analytical and numerical results indicate the emergence of a novel set of models that considerably enhance our ability to understand and characterize complex networks, whose applicability reaches far beyond the quoted examples.

  19. Kinetic Modelling of Pesticidal Degradation and Microbial Growth in Soil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUDUO-SEN; WANGZONG-SHENG; 等

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses such models for the degradation kinetics of pesticides in soil as the model expressing the degradation rate as a function of two varables:the pesticide concentration and the number of pesticide degrading microorganisms,the model expressing the pesticide concentration as explicit or implicit function of time ,and the model exprssing the pesticide loss rate constants as functions of temperature,These models may interpret the degradation curves with an inflection point.A Kinetic model describing the growth processes of microbial populations in a closed system is reported as well.

  20. Biologically-motivated system identification: application to microbial growth modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Jinyao; Deller, J R

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for identification of system models that are linear in parametric structure, but arbitrarily nonlinear in signal operations. The strategy blends traditional system identification methods with three modeling strategies that are not commonly employed in signal processing: linear-time-invariant-in-parameters models, set-based parameter identification, and evolutionary selection of the model structure. This paper reports recent advances in the theoretical foundation of the methods, then focuses on the operation and performance of the approach, particularly the evolutionary model determination. The method is applied to the modeling of microbial growth by Monod Kinetics.

  1. Large-scale growth evolution in the Szekeres inhomogeneous cosmological models with comparison to growth data

    CERN Document Server

    Peel, Austin; Troxel, M A

    2012-01-01

    We use the Szekeres inhomogeneous cosmological models to study the growth of large-scale structure in the universe including nonzero spatial curvature and a cosmological constant. In particular, we use the Goode and Wainwright formulation, as in this form the models can be considered to represent exact nonlinear perturbations of an averaged background. We identify a density contrast in both classes I and II of the models, for which we derive growth evolution equations. By including Lambda, the time evolution of the density contrast as well as kinematic quantities can be tracked through the matter- and Lambda-dominated cosmic eras up to the present and into the future. In various models of class I and class II, the growth rate is found to be stronger than that of the LCDM cosmology, and it is suppressed at later times due to the presence of Lambda. We find that there are Szekeres models able to provide a growth history similar to that of LCDM while requiring less matter content and nonzero curvature, which spe...

  2. SEM++: A particle model of cellular growth, signaling and migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milde, Florian; Tauriello, Gerardo; Haberkern, Hannah; Koumoutsakos, Petros

    2014-06-01

    We present a discrete particle method to model biological processes from the sub-cellular to the inter-cellular level. Particles interact through a parametrized force field to model cell mechanical properties, cytoskeleton remodeling, growth and proliferation as well as signaling between cells. We discuss the guiding design principles for the selection of the force field and the validation of the particle model using experimental data. The proposed method is integrated into a multiscale particle framework for the simulation of biological systems.

  3. Assessment of scaling factor in modified dendrite growth model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张瑞丰; 沈宁福; 曹文博

    2002-01-01

    A model for dendrite growth during rapid solidification was established on the basis of BCT model and marginal stability criterion through modified Peclet numbers. Taking into account the interaction of diffusion fields, including solute diffusion field and thermal diffusion field around the dendrite tip, the model obtain a satisfactory results to predict the dendrite velocity and the tip radius, which agrees well with the experimental data from references in Cu-Ni alloy.

  4. Toward Multiscale Models of Cyanobacterial Growth: A Modular Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westermark, Stefanie; Steuer, Ralf

    2016-01-01

    Oxygenic photosynthesis dominates global primary productivity ever since its evolution more than three billion years ago. While many aspects of phototrophic growth are well understood, it remains a considerable challenge to elucidate the manifold dependencies and interconnections between the diverse cellular processes that together facilitate the synthesis of new cells. Phototrophic growth involves the coordinated action of several layers of cellular functioning, ranging from the photosynthetic light reactions and the electron transport chain, to carbon-concentrating mechanisms and the assimilation of inorganic carbon. It requires the synthesis of new building blocks by cellular metabolism, protection against excessive light, as well as diurnal regulation by a circadian clock and the orchestration of gene expression and cell division. Computational modeling allows us to quantitatively describe these cellular functions and processes relevant for phototrophic growth. As yet, however, computational models are mostly confined to the inner workings of individual cellular processes, rather than describing the manifold interactions between them in the context of a living cell. Using cyanobacteria as model organisms, this contribution seeks to summarize existing computational models that are relevant to describe phototrophic growth and seeks to outline their interactions and dependencies. Our ultimate aim is to understand cellular functioning and growth as the outcome of a coordinated operation of diverse yet interconnected cellular processes. PMID:28083530

  5. Plant growth modeling at the JSC variable pressure growth chamber - An application of experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Adam M.; Edeen, Marybeth; Sirko, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the approach and results of an effort to characterize plant growth under various environmental conditions at the Johnson Space Center variable pressure growth chamber. Using a field of applied mathematics and statistics known as design of experiments (DOE), we developed a test plan for varying environmental parameters during a lettuce growth experiment. The test plan was developed using a Box-Behnken approach to DOE. As a result of the experimental runs, we have developed empirical models of both the transpiration process and carbon dioxide assimilation for Waldman's Green lettuce over specified ranges of environmental parameters including carbon dioxide concentration, light intensity, dew-point temperature, and air velocity. This model also predicts transpiration and carbon dioxide assimilation for different ages of the plant canopy.

  6. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niaz Md. FarhatRahman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1, ARIMA (0, 1 and 0 and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3 for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.

  7. Model for the feedback control system of bacterial growth. II. Growth in continuous culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleecken, S

    1989-12-07

    A mathematical model is developed that describes substrate limited bacterial growth in a continuous culture and that is based upon the conceptual framework elaborated in a previous paper for describing the feedback control system of cell growth [S. Bleecken, (1988). J. theor. Biol. 133, 37.] Central to the theory are the ideas that the limiting substrate is converted into low molecular weight building blocks of macromolecular synthesis which again are converted into biomass (RNA and protein) and that the rates of RNA and protein synthesis are controlled by the intracellular concentration of building blocks. It is shown that a continuous culture can be simulated by two interconnected feedback control systems the actuating signals of which are limiting substrate concentration and the intracellular concentration of building blocks, respectively. Three types of steady-states are found to appear in a continuous culture, besides the well-known stable steady-state of the whole culture there exist two batchlike steady-states of the biotic part of the culture which are metastable. The model is used to analyse the steady-states and their stability properties as well as the dynamic responses of biomass, RNA, protein, building block and substrate concentrations to changes in environmental conditions. Especially the inoculation of a continuous culture and the effects of step changes in dilution rate, inlet substrate concentration and growth temperature are studied in detail. Relations between the growth behaviour of a single cell and that of a continuous culture are derived. The RNA to protein ratio is introduced as a rough measure of the physiological state of cells and it is shown that a cell reacts to environmental changes with a simple pattern of basic responses in growth rate and physiological state. There are reasons to assume that the model presented is the minimal version of a structured model of bacterial growth and represents an optimum compromise between biological

  8. Modelling of transport phenomena and defects in crystal growth processes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S Pendurti; H Zhang; V Prasad

    2001-02-01

    A brief review of single crystal growth techniques and the associated problems is presented. Emphasis is placed on models for various transport and defect phenomena involoved in the growth process with the ultimate aim of integrating them into a comprehensive numerical model. The sources of dislocation nucleation in the growing crystal are discussed, and the propagation and multiplication of these under the action of thermal stresses is discussed. A brief description of a high-level numerical technique based on multiple adaptive grid generation and finite volume discretization is presented, followed by the result of a representative numerical simulation.

  9. 3D Multiscale Modelling of Angiogenesis and Vascular Tumour Growth

    KAUST Repository

    Perfahl, H.

    2012-11-01

    We present a three-dimensional, multiscale model of vascular tumour growth, which couples nutrient/growth factor transport, blood flow, angiogenesis, vascular remodelling, movement of and interactions between normal and tumour cells, and nutrient-dependent cell cycle dynamics within each cell. We present computational simulations which show how a vascular network may evolve and interact with tumour and healthy cells. We also demonstrate how our model may be combined with experimental data, to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of a vascular tumour.

  10. Modelling the initial stage of porous alumina growth during anodization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryslanova, E. M.; Alfimov, A. V.; Chivilikhin, S. A.

    2013-05-01

    Artificially on the surface of aluminum there may be build a thick layer of Al2O3, which has a porous structure. In this paper we present a model of growth of porous alumina in the initial stage of anodizing, identifying dependencies anodizing parameters on the rate of growth of the film and the distance between the pores and as a result of the created model equations were found for changes in the disturbance of alumina for the initial stage of anodizing aluminum oxide porous border aluminum-alumina and alumina-electrolyte, with the influence of surface diffusion of aluminum oxide.

  11. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  12. Kinetic model for microbial growth and desulphurisation with Enterobacter sp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Guo, Zhiguo; Lu, Jianjiang; Xu, Xiaolin

    2015-02-01

    Biodesulphurisation was investigated by using Enterobacter sp. D4, which can selectively desulphurise and convert dibenzothiophene into 2-hydroxybiphenyl (2-HBP). The experimental values of growth, substrate consumption and product generation were obtained at 95 % confidence level of the fitted values using three models: Hinshelwood equation, Luedeking-Piret and Luedeking-Piret-like equations. The average error values between experimental values and fitted values were less than 10 %. These kinetic models describe all the experimental data with good statistical parameters. The production of 2-HBP in Enterobacter sp. was by "coupled growth".

  13. Precise Asymptotics for Random Matrices and Random Growth Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhong Gen SU

    2008-01-01

    The author considers the largest eigenvalues of random matrices from Gaussian unitary ensemble and Laguerre unitary ensemble, and the rightmost charge in certain random growth models.We obtain some precise asymptotics results, which are in a sense similar to the precise asymptotics for sums of independent random variables in the context of the law of large numbers and complete convergence. Our proofs depend heavily upon the upper and lower tail estimates for random matrices and random growth models. The Tracy-Widom distribution plays a central role as well.

  14. Phase-field Model for Interstitial Loop Growth Kinetics and Thermodynamic and Kinetic Models of Irradiated Fe-Cr Alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yulan; Hu, Shenyang Y.; Sun, Xin; Khaleel, Mohammad A.

    2011-06-15

    Microstructure evolution kinetics in irradiated materials has strongly spatial correlation. For example, void and second phases prefer to nucleate and grow at pre-existing defects such as dislocations, grain boundaries, and cracks. Inhomogeneous microstructure evolution results in inhomogeneity of microstructure and thermo-mechanical properties. Therefore, the simulation capability for predicting three dimensional (3-D) microstructure evolution kinetics and its subsequent impact on material properties and performance is crucial for scientific design of advanced nuclear materials and optimal operation conditions in order to reduce uncertainty in operational and safety margins. Very recently the meso-scale phase-field (PF) method has been used to predict gas bubble evolution, void swelling, void lattice formation and void migration in irradiated materials,. Although most results of phase-field simulations are qualitative due to the lake of accurate thermodynamic and kinetic properties of defects, possible missing of important kinetic properties and processes, and the capability of current codes and computers for large time and length scale modeling, the simulations demonstrate that PF method is a promising simulation tool for predicting 3-D heterogeneous microstructure and property evolution, and providing microstructure evolution kinetics for higher scale level simulations of microstructure and property evolution such as mean field methods. This report consists of two parts. In part I, we will present a new phase-field model for predicting interstitial loop growth kinetics in irradiated materials. The effect of defect (vacancy/interstitial) generation, diffusion and recombination, sink strength, long-range elastic interaction, inhomogeneous and anisotropic mobility on microstructure evolution kinetics is taken into account in the model. The model is used to study the effect of elastic interaction on interstitial loop growth kinetics, the interstitial flux, and sink

  15. Modeling the growth of fingerprints improves matching for adolescents

    CERN Document Server

    Gottschlich, Carsten; Lorenz, Robert; Bernhardt, Stefanie; Hantschel, Michael; Munk, Axel

    2010-01-01

    We study the effect of growth on the fingerprints of adolescents, based on which we suggest a simple method to adjust for growth when trying to recover a juvenile's fingerprint in a database years later. Based on longitudinal data sets in juveniles' criminal records, we show that growth essentially leads to an isotropic rescaling, so that we can use the strong correlation between growth in stature and limbs to model the growth of fingerprints proportional to stature growth as documented in growth charts. The proposed rescaling leads to a 72% reduction of the distances between corresponding minutiae for the data set analyzed. These findings were corroborated by several verification tests. In an identification test on a database containing 3.25 million right index fingers at the Federal Criminal Police Office of Germany, the identification error rate of 20.8% was reduced to 2.1% by rescaling. The presented method is of striking simplicity and can easily be integrated into existing automated fingerprint identifi...

  16. Growth Model System for National Continuous Forest Inventory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ge Hongli; Meng Xianyu; Tang Xiaoming

    2006-01-01

    A Growth Model System is developed for data updating and forecasting of the national continuous forest inventory.Its design is based on the inherent forest growth laws,and its parameters are estimated by modern regression methods.It is composed of an age-implicit tree model,a diameter-related survival rate model,a recruitment model based on age and number of plots,and an area model.It is suitable for forest resource information updating and forecasting for a large region,e.g.,a province.Data of remeasured plots and trees are needed for development of the system.A study case of Jiangxi Province with detailed error analyses is provided.

  17. Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robson Marcelo Rossi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian modeling growth curves for quail assuming skewness in errors - To assume normal distributions in the data analysis is common in different areas of the knowledge. However we can make use of the other distributions that are capable to model the skewness parameter in the situations that is needed to model data with tails heavier than the normal. This article intend to present alternatives to the assumption of the normality in the errors, adding asymmetric distributions. A Bayesian approach is proposed to fit nonlinear models when the errors are not normal, thus, the distributions t, skew-normal and skew-t are adopted. The methodology is intended to apply to different growth curves to the quail body weights. It was found that the Gompertz model assuming skew-normal errors and skew-t errors, respectively for male and female, were the best fitted to the data.

  18. Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta: Model and forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Cook, T.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth is recognized as a major component of additions to reserves in most oil provinces around the world, particularly in mature provinces. It takes place as a result of the discovery of new pools/reservoirs and extensions of known pools within existing fields, improved knowledge of reservoirs over time leading to a change in estimates of original oil-in-place, and improvement in recovery factor through the application of new technology, such as enhanced oil recovery methods, horizontal/multilateral drilling, and 4D seismic. A reserve growth study was conducted on oil pools in Alberta, Canada, with the following objectives: 1) evaluate historical oil reserve data in order to assess the potential for future reserve growth; 2) develop reserve growth models/ functions to help forecast hydrocarbon volumes; 3) study reserve growth sensitivity to various parameters (for example, pool size, porosity, and oil gravity); and 4) compare reserve growth in oil pools and fields in Alberta with those from other large petroleum provinces around the world. The reported known recoverable oil exclusive of Athabasca oil sands in Alberta increased from 4.5 billion barrels of oil (BBO) in 1960 to 17 BBO in 2005. Some of the pools that were included in the existing database were excluded from the present study for lack of adequate data. Therefore, the known recoverable oil increased from 4.2 to 13.9 BBO over the period from 1960 through 2005, with new discoveries contributing 3.7 BBO and reserve growth adding 6 BBO. This reserve growth took place mostly in pools with more than 125,000 barrels of known recoverable oil. Pools with light oil accounted for most of the total known oil volume, therefore reflecting the overall pool growth. Smaller pools, in contrast, shrank in their total recoverable volumes over the years. Pools with heavy oil (gravity less than 20o API) make up only a small share (3.8 percent) of the total recoverable oil; they showed a 23-fold growth compared to

  19. A Swarm Optimization Based Method for Urban Growth Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sassan Mohammady

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Land use activity is a major issue and challenge for town and country planners. Urban planners must be able to allocate urban land area to different applications with a special focus on the role and function of the city, its economy, and the ability to simulate the effect of user interaction with each other. Continuing migration of rural population to cities and population increases has caused many problems of today's cities including the expansion of urban areas, lack of infrastructure and urban services as well as environmental pollution. Local governments that implement urban growth boundaries need to estimate the amount of urban land required in the future given anticipated growth of housing, business, recreation and other urban activities. Urban growth is a complex process that encounters a number of sophisticated parameters that interact to produce the urban growth pattern. Urban growth modelling aims to understand the dynamic processes. Therefore, interpretability of models is becoming increasingly important. Different approaches have been applied in spatial modelling. In this study, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO has been used for modelling of urban growth in Qazvin city area (Iran during 2005 to 2011. Landsat imageries, taken in 2005 and 2011 have been used in the study. Main parameters in this study are distance to residential area, distance to industrial area, slope, accessibility, land price and number of urban cell in a 3*3 neighbourhood. Figure of Merit and Kappa statistics have been used for estimating accuracy of the proposed model. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.69.3.6653

  20. Thermal-capillary model for Czochralski growth of semiconductor materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derby, J. J.; Brown, R. A.

    1985-01-01

    The success of efficiently calculating the temperature field, crystal radius, melt mensicus, and melt/solid interface in the Czochralski crystal growth system by full finite-element solution of the government thermal-capillary model is demonstrated. The model predicts realistic response to changes in pull rate, melt volume, and the thermal field. The experimentally observed phenomena of interface flipping, bumping, and the difficulty maintaining steady-state growth as the melt depth decreases are explained by model results. These calculations will form the basis for the first quantitative picture of Cz crystal growth. The accurate depiction of the melt meniscus is important in calculating the crystal radius and solidification interface. The sensitivity of the results to the equilibrium growth angle place doubt on less sophisticated attempts to model the process without inclusion of the meniscus. Quantitative comparison with experiments should be possible once more representation of the radiation and view factors in the thermal system and the crucible are included. Extensions of the model in these directions are underway.

  1. Probabilistic model of microbial cell growth, division, and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Joseph; Normand, Mark D; Corradini, Maria G; Peleg, Micha

    2010-01-01

    After a short time interval of length deltat during microbial growth, an individual cell can be found to be divided with probability Pd(t)deltat, dead with probability Pm(t)deltat, or alive but undivided with the probability 1-[Pd(t)+Pm(t)]deltat, where t is time, Pd(t) expresses the probability of division for an individual cell per unit of time, and Pm(t) expresses the probability of mortality per unit of time. These probabilities may change with the state of the population and the habitat's properties and are therefore functions of time. This scenario translates into a model that is presented in stochastic and deterministic versions. The first, a stochastic process model, monitors the fates of individual cells and determines cell numbers. It is particularly suitable for small populations such as those that may exist in the case of casual contamination of a food by a pathogen. The second, which can be regarded as a large-population limit of the stochastic model, is a continuous mathematical expression that describes the population's size as a function of time. It is suitable for large microbial populations such as those present in unprocessed foods. Exponential or logistic growth with or without lag, inactivation with or without a "shoulder," and transitions between growth and inactivation are all manifestations of the underlying probability structure of the model. With temperature-dependent parameters, the model can be used to simulate nonisothermal growth and inactivation patterns. The same concept applies to other factors that promote or inhibit microorganisms, such as pH and the presence of antimicrobials, etc. With Pd(t) and Pm(t) in the form of logistic functions, the model can simulate all commonly observed growth/mortality patterns. Estimates of the changing probability parameters can be obtained with both the stochastic and deterministic versions of the model, as demonstrated with simulated data.

  2. An Eden model for the growth of adaptive networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meakin, Paul

    1991-12-01

    An adaptive growth model based on the Eden model has been investigated using computer simulations. In this model a “score” associated with all the sites along the shortest path from the newly added site to the initial seed or growth site is incremented by an amount δ 1 ( δ1=1/( l+1) η where l is the path length) and the score associated with all the sites in the cluster is decreased by a fixed amount δ2 ( δ2=1/ Nm) after each growth event. If the score associated with a site falls below zero it is removed from the cluster. In the asymptotic limit ( t→∞ where t is the number of growth events) the cluster size fluctuates about a constant value proportional to N vm where the exponent v is given by the empirical relationship v=2/(2+ η), which is supported by simple theoretical considerations. The growth of the number of occupied sites, s( t), can be represented by the scaling form s( t) = N vm ƒ(t/N vm) .

  3. Physical activity versus cardiorespiratory fitness: two (partly) distinct components of cardiovascular health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFina, Laura F; Haskell, William L; Willis, Benjamin L; Barlow, Carolyn E; Finley, Carrie E; Levine, Benjamin D; Cooper, Kenneth H

    2015-01-01

    Physical activity (PA) and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) both have inverse relationships to cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality. Recent position papers and guidelines have identified the important role of both of these factors in CV health. The benefits of PA and CRF in the prevention of CV disease and risk factors are reviewed. In addition, assessment methodology and utilization in the research and clinical arenas are discussed. Finally, the benefits, methodology, and utilization are compared and contrasted to better understand the two (partly) distinct components and their impact on CV health.

  4. Modeling of dislocation dynamics in germanium Czochralski growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artemyev, V. V.; Smirnov, A. D.; Kalaev, V. V.; Mamedov, V. M.; Sidko, A. P.; Podkopaev, O. I.; Kravtsova, E. D.; Shimansky, A. F.

    2017-06-01

    Obtaining very high-purity germanium crystals with low dislocation density is a practically difficult problem, which requires knowledge and experience in growth processes. Dislocation density is one of the most important parameters defining the quality of germanium crystal. In this paper, we have performed experimental study of dislocation density during 4-in. germanium crystal growth using the Czochralski method and comprehensive unsteady modeling of the same crystal growth processes, taking into account global heat transfer, melt flow and melt/crystal interface shape evolution. Thermal stresses in the crystal and their relaxation with generation of dislocations within the Alexander-Haasen model have been calculated simultaneously with crystallization dynamics. Comparison to experimental data showed reasonable agreement for the temperature, interface shape and dislocation density in the crystal between calculation and experiment.

  5. The Growth of Structure in Interacting Dark Energy Models

    CERN Document Server

    Caldera-Cabral, Gabriela; Schaefer, Bjoern Malte

    2009-01-01

    If dark energy interacts with dark matter, there is a change in the background evolution of the universe, since the dark matter density no longer evolves as a^{-3}. In addition, the non-gravitational interaction affects the growth of structure. In principle, these changes allow us to detect and constrain an interaction in the dark sector. Here we investigate the growth factor and the weak lensing signal for a class of interacting dark energy models. In these models, the interaction is determined by a linear combination of the dark sector densities, with constant energy transfer rates. Assuming a normalization to today's values of dark matter density and overdensity, the signal of the interaction is an enhancement (suppression) of both the growth factor and the lensing power, when the energy transfer in the background is from dark matter to dark energy (dark energy to dark matter).

  6. Body weight growth Model of Datong Yak in Qinghai

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    W.Minqiang; Zh.Huiling; L.Pingli; T.Yongqiang; L.Jiye; L.Zonglin

    2005-01-01

    Summary:This study was conducted to develop a suitable model for describing the growth pattern of the yak. The data used consisted of body weight records of 76 growing yak aged between 5 to 37 months. Three mathematical models were applied to describe the growth curves during this development period:①Y1=20.105 + 11. 250x-0. 526x2 ;used for describing the growth curve of yak aged 5 to 13 months;②Y2 = -359.687 + 49. 977x - 1. 249x2 ;used for animals aged 13 to 25 months;and ③Y3 = -833. 339 + 63. 772x - 1. 019x2 ;used for animals aged 25 to 37 months.

  7. Modeling the Relationship Between Social Network Activity, Inactivity, and Growth

    CERN Document Server

    Ribeiro, Bruno

    2013-01-01

    Online Social Networks (OSNs) are multi-billion dollar enterprises. Surprisingly, little is known about the mechanisms that drive them to growth, stability, or death. This study sheds light on these mechanisms. We are particularly interested in OSNs where current subscribers can invite new users to join the network (e.g., Facebook, LinkedIn). Measuring the relationship between subscriber activity and network growth of a large OSN over five years, we formulate three hypotheses that together describe the observed OSN subscriber behavior. We then provide a model (and extensions) that simultaneously satisfies all three hypotheses. Our model provides deep insights into the dynamics of subscriber activity, inactivity, and network growth rates, even predicting four types of OSNs with respect to subscriber activity evolution. Finally, we present activity data of nearly thirty OSN websites, measured over five years, and show that the observed activity is well described by one of the four activity time series predicted...

  8. Multiscale models for the growth of avascular tumors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, M. L.; Ferreira, S. C.; Vilela, M. J.

    2007-06-01

    In the past 30 years we have witnessed an extraordinary progress on the research in the molecular biology of cancer, but its medical treatment, widely based on empirically established protocols, still has many limitations. One of the reasons for that is the limited quantitative understanding of the dynamics of tumor growth and drug response in the organism. In this review we shall discuss in general terms the use of mathematical modeling and computer simulations related to cancer growth and its applications to improve tumor therapy. Particular emphasis is devoted to multiscale models which permit integration of the rapidly expanding knowledge concerning the molecular basis of cancer and the complex, nonlinear interactions among tumor cells and their microenvironment that will determine the neoplastic growth at the tissue level.

  9. Stochastic Differential Equation-Based Flexible Software Reliability Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Kapur

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several software reliability growth models (SRGMs have been developed by software developers in tracking and measuring the growth of reliability. As the size of software system is large and the number of faults detected during the testing phase becomes large, so the change of the number of faults that are detected and removed through each debugging becomes sufficiently small compared with the initial fault content at the beginning of the testing phase. In such a situation, we can model the software fault detection process as a stochastic process with continuous state space. In this paper, we propose a new software reliability growth model based on Itô type of stochastic differential equation. We consider an SDE-based generalized Erlang model with logistic error detection function. The model is estimated and validated on real-life data sets cited in literature to show its flexibility. The proposed model integrated with the concept of stochastic differential equation performs comparatively better than the existing NHPP-based models.

  10. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  11. Modeling Pacing Behavior and Test Speededness Using Latent Growth Curve Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahraman, Nilufer; Cuddy, Monica M.; Clauser, Brian E.

    2013-01-01

    This research explores the usefulness of latent growth curve modeling in the study of pacing behavior and test speededness. Examinee response times from a high-stakes, computerized examination, collected before and after the examination was subjected to a timing change, were analyzed using a series of latent growth curve models to detect…

  12. Modeling Fractal Dimension Curve of Urban Growth in Developing Countries

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Yanguang

    2016-01-01

    The growth curve of fractal dimension of cities can be described with sigmoid function such as Boltzmann's equation and logistic function. The logistic models of fractal dimension curves have been presented for the cities in developed countries. However, these models cannot be well fitted to the observational data of fractal dimension of urban form in developing countries (e.g. China). By statistic experiments of fractal parameters, we find that the quadratic Boltzmann's equation can be used to describe fractal dimension change of Chinese cities. For the normalized fractal dimension values, the Boltzmann's equation can be reduced to a quadratic logistic function. In practice, a fractal dimension dataset of urban growth can be approximately fitted with the quadratic logistic function. Thus, a series of models of fractal dimension curve can be proposed for the cities in developing countries. The models are applied to the city of Beijing, Chinese capital, and yield satisfying trend lines of the observational dat...

  13. Multiphase modeling of tumor growth with matrix remodeling and fibrosis

    CERN Document Server

    Tosin, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    We present a multiphase mathematical model for tumor growth which incorporates the remodeling of the extracellular matrix and describes the formation of fibrotic tissue by tumor cells. We also detail a full qualitative analysis of the spatially homogeneous problem, and study the equilibria of the system in order to characterize the conditions under which fibrosis may occur.

  14. Fractal model for simulation of frost formation and growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A planar fractal model for simulation of frost formation and growth was proposed based on diffusion limited aggregation(DLA)model and the computational simulation was carried out in this paper.By changing the times of program running circulation and the ratio of random particles generated,the simulation figures were gained under different conditions.A microscope is used to observe the shape and structure of frost layer and a digital camera with high resolution is used to record the pattern of frost layer at different time.Through comparing the simulation figures with the experimental images,we find that the simulation results agree well with the experimental images in shape and the fractal dimension of simulation figures is nearly equal to that of experimental images.The results indicate that it is reasonable to represent frost layer growth time with the program circulation times and to simulate the frost layer density variation during its growth process by reducing the random particle generation probability.The feasibility of using the suggested model to simulate the process of frost formation and growth was justified.The insufficiencies and its causes of this fractal model are also discussed.

  15. Building Context with Tumor Growth Modeling Projects in Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Julie C.; Gevertz, Jana L.; Howard, Keith E.

    2015-01-01

    The use of modeling projects serves to integrate, reinforce, and extend student knowledge. Here we present two projects related to tumor growth appropriate for a first course in differential equations. They illustrate the use of problem-based learning to reinforce and extend course content via a writing or research experience. Here we discuss…

  16. Modelling fruit set, fruit growth and dry matter partitioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marcelis, L.F.M.; Heuvelink, E.

    1999-01-01

    This paper discusses how fruit set, fruit growth and dry matter partitioning can be simulated by models where sink strength (assimilate demand) and source strength (assimilate supply) are the key variables. Although examples are derived from experiments on fruit vegetables such as tomato, sweet pepp

  17. Modeling of the growth of filamentous fungi in artificial microstructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolau, Dan V., Jr.; Hanson, Kristi; Nicolau, Dan V.

    2006-01-01

    We present a stochastic and spatial Monte Carlo model for the growth of a fungal colony in microstructures. This model is based on an "L-system-like" representation of filaments as individual objects. Each of these can both grow in space (and be diverted by obstacles) and can send new branches. All parameters in the model such as filament dimensions, the growth speed, behavior at and around obstacles, branching angle and frequency and others are obtained from experimental studies of growth in artificial microstructures. We investigate four different possible "strategies" the colony might use to achieve the tasks of (a) filling the available space and (2) finding its way out of the structures. The simulation results indicate that a combination of directional memory and a stop-and-branch behavior at corners gives the best results and observe that in fact this is similar to the experimentally observed behavior of the fungi. The model is expected to be of use in studying the colonization of microstructures by fungi and in the design of devices either using fungal growth or aiming to inhibit it.

  18. Nowcasting GDP Growth: statistical models versus professional analysts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. de Winter (Jasper)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis contains four chapters that cast new light on the ability of professional analysts and statistical models to assess economic growth in the current quarter (nowcast) and its development in the near future. This is not a trivial issue. An accurate assessment of the current

  19. Simple model on collisionless thin-shell instability growth

    CERN Document Server

    Doria, Domenico; Dieckmann, Mark E

    2016-01-01

    The manuscript discusses a simple model on the Thin Shell Instability (TSI) growth phenomenon at early stage, by only imposing the fulfillment of conservation laws; and in particular just applying the laws of mass and linear momentum conservation, without taking into account the energy partitioning inside the thin shell.

  20. A site dependent top height growth model for hybrid aspen

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tord Johansson

    2013-01-01

    In this study height growth models for hybrid aspen were developed using three growth equations. The mean age of the hybrid aspen was 21 years (range 15−51 years) with a mean stand density of 946 stems ha-1 (87−2374) and a mean diameter at breast height (over bark) of 19.6 cm (8.5−40.8 cm). Site index was also examined in relation to soil type. Multiple samples were collected for three types of soil: light clay, medium clay and till. Site index curves were constructed using the col-lected data and compared with published reports. A number of dynamic equations were assessed for modeling top-height growth from total age. A Generalized Algebraic Difference Approach model derived by Cieszewski (2001) performed the best. This model explained 99% of the observed variation in tree height growth and exhibited no apparent bias across the range of predicted site indices. There were no significant differences between the soil types and site indices.

  1. Twelve Frequently Asked Questions about Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Patrick J.; Obeidat, Khawla; Losardo, Diane

    2010-01-01

    Longitudinal data analysis has long played a significant role in empirical research within the developmental sciences. The past decade has given rise to a host of new and exciting analytic methods for studying between-person differences in within-person change. These methods are broadly organized under the term "growth curve models." The…

  2. Diagnostics of Robust Growth Curve Modeling Using Student's "t" Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xin; Zhang, Zhiyong

    2012-01-01

    Growth curve models with different types of distributions of random effects and of intraindividual measurement errors for robust analysis are compared. After demonstrating the influence of distribution specification on parameter estimation, 3 methods for diagnosing the distributions for both random effects and intraindividual measurement errors…

  3. A Model of Technological Growth under Emission Constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Rovenskaya, E.

    2006-01-01

    We suggest and analyze a model of global technological growth under a prescribed constraint on the annual emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). The model assumes that industrial GHG emission is positively related to the world's production output driven by the development of the "production"technology stock. "Cleaning" technology is developed in parallel to keep the annual GHG emission within a "safety" zone. The ratio between annual investment in "cleaning" technology and annual investment in "...

  4. Bifurcation analysis for a free boundary problem modeling tumor growth

    CERN Document Server

    Escher, Joachim

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we deal with a free boundary problem modeling the growth of nonnecrotic tumors.The tumor is treated as an incompressible fluid, the tissue elasticity is neglected and no chemical inhibitor species are present. We re-express the mathematical model as an operator equation and by using a bifurcation argument we prove that there exist stationary solutions of the problem which are not radially symmetric.

  5. Network effects in a human capital based economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz Martins, Teresa; Araújo, Tanya; Augusta Santos, Maria; St Aubyn, Miguel

    2009-06-01

    We revisit a recently introduced agent model [ACS, 11, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents’ social network, both on an agent’s decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and random networks are considered. The results are compared with the predictions of a mean field (representative agent) model.

  6. Modeling high speed growth of large rods of cesium iodide crystals by edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeckel, Andrew

    2016-09-01

    A thermocapillary model of edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) is developed to analyze an experimental system for high speed growth of cesium iodide as a model system for halide scintillator production. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid dynamics in the die, melt, and crystal under conditions of steady growth. Appropriate mass, force, and energy balances are used to compute self-consistent shapes of the growth interface and melt-vapor meniscus. The model is applied to study the effects of growth rate, die geometry, and furnace heat transfer on the limits of system operability. An inverse problem formulation is used to seek operable states at high growth rates by adjusting the overall temperature level and thermal gradient in the furnace. The model predicts that steady growth is feasible at rates greater than 20 mm/h for crystals up to 18 mm in diameter under reasonable furnace gradients.

  7. A Predictive Model of High Shear Thrombus Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrabadi, Marmar; Casa, Lauren D C; Aidun, Cyrus K; Ku, David N

    2016-08-01

    The ability to predict the timescale of thrombotic occlusion in stenotic vessels may improve patient risk assessment for thrombotic events. In blood contacting devices, thrombosis predictions can lead to improved designs to minimize thrombotic risks. We have developed and validated a model of high shear thrombosis based on empirical correlations between thrombus growth and shear rate. A mathematical model was developed to predict the growth of thrombus based on the hemodynamic shear rate. The model predicts thrombus deposition based on initial geometric and fluid mechanic conditions, which are updated throughout the simulation to reflect the changing lumen dimensions. The model was validated by comparing predictions against actual thrombus growth in six separate in vitro experiments: stenotic glass capillary tubes (diameter = 345 µm) at three shear rates, the PFA-100(®) system, two microfluidic channel dimensions (heights = 300 and 82 µm), and a stenotic aortic graft (diameter = 5.5 mm). Comparison of the predicted occlusion times to experimental results shows excellent agreement. The model is also applied to a clinical angiography image to illustrate the time course of thrombosis in a stenotic carotid artery after plaque cap rupture. Our model can accurately predict thrombotic occlusion time over a wide range of hemodynamic conditions.

  8. Modelling hair follicle growth dynamics as an excitable medium.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Murray

    Full Text Available The hair follicle system represents a tractable model for the study of stem cell behaviour in regenerative adult epithelial tissue. However, although there are numerous spatial scales of observation (molecular, cellular, follicle and multi follicle, it is not yet clear what mechanisms underpin the follicle growth cycle. In this study we seek to address this problem by describing how the growth dynamics of a large population of follicles can be treated as a classical excitable medium. Defining caricature interactions at the molecular scale and treating a single follicle as a functional unit, a minimal model is proposed in which the follicle growth cycle is an emergent phenomenon. Expressions are derived, in terms of parameters representing molecular regulation, for the time spent in the different functional phases of the cycle, a formalism that allows the model to be directly compared with a previous cellular automaton model and experimental measurements made at the single follicle scale. A multi follicle model is constructed and numerical simulations are used to demonstrate excellent qualitative agreement with a range of experimental observations. Notably, the excitable medium equations exhibit a wider family of solutions than the previous work and we demonstrate how parameter changes representing altered molecular regulation can explain perturbed patterns in Wnt over-expression and BMP down-regulation mouse models. Further experimental scenarios that could be used to test the fundamental premise of the model are suggested. The key conclusion from our work is that positive and negative regulatory interactions between activators and inhibitors can give rise to a range of experimentally observed phenomena at the follicle and multi follicle spatial scales and, as such, could represent a core mechanism underlying hair follicle growth.

  9. Replicating vesicles as models of primitive cell growth and division.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanczyc, Martin M; Szostak, Jack W

    2004-12-01

    Primitive cells, lacking the complex bio-machinery present in modern cells, would have had to rely on the self-organizing properties of their components and on interactions with their environment to achieve basic cellular functions such as growth and division. Many bilayer-membrane vesicles, depending on their composition and environment, can exhibit complex morphological changes such as growth, fusion, fission, budding, internal vesicle assembly and vesicle-surface interactions. The rich dynamic properties of these vesicles provide interesting models of how primitive cellular replication might have occurred in response to purely physical and chemical forces.

  10. Sensitivity Analysis of a Riparian Vegetation Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Nones

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a sensitivity analysis of two main parameters used in a mathematic model able to evaluate the effects of changing hydrology on the growth of riparian vegetation along rivers and its effects on the cross-section width. Due to a lack of data in existing literature, in a past study the schematization proposed here was applied only to two large rivers, assuming steady conditions for the vegetational carrying capacity and coupling the vegetal model with a 1D description of the river morphology. In this paper, the limitation set by steady conditions is overcome, imposing the vegetational evolution dependent upon the initial plant population and the growth rate, which represents the potential growth of the overall vegetation along the watercourse. The sensitivity analysis shows that, regardless of the initial population density, the growth rate can be considered the main parameter defining the development of riparian vegetation, but it results site-specific effects, with significant differences for large and small rivers. Despite the numerous simplifications adopted and the small database analyzed, the comparison between measured and computed river widths shows a quite good capability of the model in representing the typical interactions between riparian vegetation and water flow occurring along watercourses. After a thorough calibration, the relatively simple structure of the code permits further developments and applications to a wide range of alluvial rivers.

  11. A computational model for cancer growth by using complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galvão, Viviane; Miranda, José G. V.

    2008-09-01

    In this work we propose a computational model to investigate the proliferation of cancerous cell by using complex networks. In our model the network represents the structure of available space in the cancer propagation. The computational scheme considers a cancerous cell randomly included in the complex network. When the system evolves the cells can assume three states: proliferative, non-proliferative, and necrotic. Our results were compared with experimental data obtained from three human lung carcinoma cell lines. The computational simulations show that the cancerous cells have a Gompertzian growth. Also, our model simulates the formation of necrosis, increase of density, and resources diffusion to regions of lower nutrient concentration. We obtain that the cancer growth is very similar in random and small-world networks. On the other hand, the topological structure of the small-world network is more affected. The scale-free network has the largest rates of cancer growth due to hub formation. Finally, our results indicate that for different average degrees the rate of cancer growth is related to the available space in the network.

  12. An autoregressive growth model for longitudinal item analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Minjeong; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2016-09-01

    A first-order autoregressive growth model is proposed for longitudinal binary item analysis where responses to the same items are conditionally dependent across time given the latent traits. Specifically, the item response probability for a given item at a given time depends on the latent trait as well as the response to the same item at the previous time, or the lagged response. An initial conditions problem arises because there is no lagged response at the initial time period. We handle this problem by adapting solutions proposed for dynamic models in panel data econometrics. Asymptotic and finite sample power for the autoregressive parameters are investigated. The consequences of ignoring local dependence and the initial conditions problem are also examined for data simulated from a first-order autoregressive growth model. The proposed methods are applied to longitudinal data on Korean students' self-esteem.

  13. Ajellium model analysis on quantum growth of metal nanowiresand nanomesas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong HAN

    2008-01-01

    A simple jellium model is used to investi-gate the stability of a metal nanowire as a function of its size. The theoretical results from the model indicate the quantum selectivity of preferable radii of nanowires, in apparent agreement with the experimental observations. It is consequently suggested that a series of stable "magic numbers" and "instability gaps" observed in the synthe-sis experiments of Au nanowires is mainly attributed to the quantum-mechanical behavior. These stable radii can be achieved by rearranging atoms during the forma-tion of nanowires. The model is also used to analyze the growth of Au nanomesas on a graphite surface, and the puzzling growth behavior of Au nanomesas can be reasonably explained.

  14. A Big Bang model of human colorectal tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sottoriva, Andrea; Kang, Haeyoun; Ma, Zhicheng; Graham, Trevor A; Salomon, Matthew P; Zhao, Junsong; Marjoram, Paul; Siegmund, Kimberly; Press, Michael F; Shibata, Darryl; Curtis, Christina

    2015-03-01

    What happens in early, still undetectable human malignancies is unknown because direct observations are impractical. Here we present and validate a 'Big Bang' model, whereby tumors grow predominantly as a single expansion producing numerous intermixed subclones that are not subject to stringent selection and where both public (clonal) and most detectable private (subclonal) alterations arise early during growth. Genomic profiling of 349 individual glands from 15 colorectal tumors showed an absence of selective sweeps, uniformly high intratumoral heterogeneity (ITH) and subclone mixing in distant regions, as postulated by our model. We also verified the prediction that most detectable ITH originates from early private alterations and not from later clonal expansions, thus exposing the profile of the primordial tumor. Moreover, some tumors appear 'born to be bad', with subclone mixing indicative of early malignant potential. This new model provides a quantitative framework to interpret tumor growth dynamics and the origins of ITH, with important clinical implications.

  15. Growth characteristics modeling of Lactobacillus acidophilus using RSM and ANN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganga Sahay Meena

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The culture conditions viz. additional carbon and nitrogen content, inoculum size, age, temperature and pH of Lactobacillus acidophilus were optimized using response surface methodology (RSM and artificial neural network (ANN. Kinetic growth models were fitted to cultivations from a Box-Behnken Design (BBD design experiments for different variables. This concept of combining the optimization and modeling presented different optimal conditions for L. acidophilus growth from their original optimization study. Through these statistical tools, the product yield (cell mass of L. acidophilus was increased. Regression coefficients (R² of both the statistical tools predicted that ANN was better than RSM and the regression equation was solved with the help of genetic algorithms (GA. The normalized percentage mean squared error obtained from the ANN and RSM models were 0.06 and 0.2%, respectively. The results demonstrated a higher prediction accuracy of ANN compared to RSM.

  16. Modelling Aspergillus flavus growth and aflatoxins production in pistachio nuts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marín, Sonia; Ramos, Antonio J; Sanchis, V

    2012-12-01

    Aflatoxins (AFs) are the main contaminants in pistachio nuts. AFs production in pistachio has been attributed to Aspergillus flavus. The aim of this study was to apply existing models to predict growth and AFs production by an A. flavus isolated from pistachios as a function of moisture content and storage temperature of pistachios in order to test their usefulness and complementarities. A full factorial design was used: the moisture content levels assayed were 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and incubation temperatures were 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 37 and 42 °C. Both kinetic and probability models were built to predict growth of the strain under the assayed conditions. Among the assayed models, cardinal ones gave a good quality fit for radial growth rate data. Moreover, the progressive approach, which was developed based on a reduced number of experimental points led to an improved prediction in the validation step. This is quite significant as may allow for improved experimental designs, less costly than full factorial ones. Probability model proved to be concordant in 91% of the calibration set observations. Even though the validation set included conditions around the growth/no-growth interface, there was a 100% agreement in the predictions from the data set (n = 16, cut off = 0.5) after 60 days. Similarly, the probability for AF presence was rightly predicted in 89% of the cases. According to our results EC maximum aflatoxin levels would be surpassed in a period as short as 1 month if pistachio nuts reach 20 °C, unless %mc is ≤10%.

  17. Modelling microbial metabolic rewiring during growth in a complex medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fondi, Marco; Bosi, Emanuele; Presta, Luana; Natoli, Diletta; Fani, Renato

    2016-11-24

    In their natural environment, bacteria face a wide range of environmental conditions that change over time and that impose continuous rearrangements at all the cellular levels (e.g. gene expression, metabolism). When facing a nutritionally rich environment, for example, microbes first use the preferred compound(s) and only later start metabolizing the other one(s). A systemic re-organization of the overall microbial metabolic network in response to a variation in the composition/concentration of the surrounding nutrients has been suggested, although the range and the entity of such modifications in organisms other than a few model microbes has been scarcely described up to now. We used multi-step constraint-based metabolic modelling to simulate the growth in a complex medium over several time steps of the Antarctic model organism Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis TAC125. As each of these phases is characterized by a specific set of amino acids to be used as carbon and energy source our modelling framework describes the major consequences of nutrients switching at the system level. The model predicts that a deep metabolic reprogramming might be required to achieve optimal biomass production in different stages of growth (different medium composition), with at least half of the cellular metabolic network involved (more than 50% of the metabolic genes). Additionally, we show that our modelling framework is able to capture metabolic functional association and/or common regulatory features of the genes embedded in our reconstruction (e.g. the presence of common regulatory motifs). Finally, to explore the possibility of a sub-optimal biomass objective function (i.e. that cells use resources in alternative metabolic processes at the expense of optimal growth) we have implemented a MOMA-based approach (called nutritional-MOMA) and compared the outcomes with those obtained with Flux Balance Analysis (FBA). Growth simulations under this scenario revealed the deep impact of

  18. Developing a dynamic growth model for teak plantations in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vindhya Prasad Tewari

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tectona grandis (teak is one of the most important tropical timber speciesoccurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques,are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country.Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models, and the principles of Dynamical SystemTheory provide a solid foundation for these. Methods The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growthmodel based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India. Results A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses thestate-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height,stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equationas an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions werefitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure isalso included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions. Conclusions A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularlywell suited to situations where available data is scarce.

  19. Latent Growth Curve Models for Biomarkers of the Stress Response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M. Felt

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The stress response is a dynamic process that can be characterized by predictable biochemical and psychological changes. Biomarkers of the stress response are typically measured over time and require statistical methods that can model change over time. One flexible method of evaluating change over time is the latent growth curve model (LGCM. However, stress researchers seldom use the LGCM when studying biomarkers, despite their benefits. Stress researchers may be unaware of how these methods can be useful. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of LGCMs in the context of stress research. We specifically highlight the unique benefits of using these approaches.Methods: Hypothetical examples are used to describe four forms of the LGCM.Results: The following four specifications of the LGCM are described: basic LGCM, latent growth mixture model, piecewise LGCM, and LGCM for two parallel processes. The specifications of the LGCM are discussed in the context of the Trier Social Stress Test. Beyond the discussion of the four models, we present issues of modeling nonlinear patterns of change, assessing model fit, and linking specific research questions regarding biomarker research using different statistical models.Conclusions: The final sections of the paper discuss statistical software packages and more advanced modeling capabilities of LGCMs. The online Appendix contains example code with annotation from two statistical programs for the LCGM.

  20. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  1. River water temperature and fish growth forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, E.; Pike, A.; Lindley, S.; Mendelssohn, R.; Dewitt, L.; Melton, F. S.; Nemani, R. R.; Hashimoto, H.

    2010-12-01

    Water is a valuable, limited, and highly regulated resource throughout the United States. When making decisions about water allocations, state and federal water project managers must consider the short-term and long-term needs of agriculture, urban users, hydroelectric production, flood control, and the ecosystems downstream. In the Central Valley of California, river water temperature is a critical indicator of habitat quality for endangered salmonid species and affects re-licensing of major water projects and dam operations worth billions of dollars. There is consequently strong interest in modeling water temperature dynamics and the subsequent impacts on fish growth in such regulated rivers. However, the accuracy of current stream temperature models is limited by the lack of spatially detailed meteorological forecasts. To address these issues, we developed a high-resolution deterministic 1-dimensional stream temperature model (sub-hourly time step, sub-kilometer spatial resolution) in a state-space framework, and applied this model to Upper Sacramento River. We then adapted salmon bioenergetics models to incorporate the temperature data at sub-hourly time steps to provide more realistic estimates of salmon growth. The temperature model uses physically-based heat budgets to calculate the rate of heat transfer to/from the river. We use variables provided by the TOPS-WRF (Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System - Weather Research and Forecasting) model—a high-resolution assimilation of satellite-derived meteorological observations and numerical weather simulations—as inputs. The TOPS-WRF framework allows us to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of stream temperature predictions. The salmon growth models are adapted from the Wisconsin bioenergetics model. We have made the output from both models available on an interactive website so that water and fisheries managers can determine the past, current and three day forecasted water temperatures at

  2. Percentile growth charts for biomedical studies using a porcine model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corson, A M; Laws, J; Laws, A; Litten, J C; Lean, I J; Clarke, L

    2008-12-01

    Increasing rates of obesity and heart disease are compromising quality of life for a growing number of people. There is much research linking adult disease with the growth and development both in utero and during the first year of life. The pig is an ideal model for studying the origins of developmental programming. The objective of this paper was to construct percentile growth curves for the pig for use in biomedical studies. The body weight (BW) of pigs was recorded from birth to 150 days of age and their crown-to-rump length was measured over the neonatal period to enable the ponderal index (PI; kg/m3) to be calculated. Data were normalised and percentile curves were constructed using Cole's lambda-mu-sigma (LMS) method for BW and PI. The construction of these percentile charts for use in biomedical research will allow a more detailed and precise tracking of growth and development of individual pigs under experimental conditions.

  3. Growth and convergence in a two-region model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Funke, Michael; Strulik, Holger

    2005-01-01

    The paper discusses the impact and implications of Korean unification by setting up a two-region endogenous growth model. The numerical solutions are based on the formal analytical model, and have been calibrated so that they reflect the observed features of the North and South Korean economies....... The numerical solutions provide evidence about the speed of convergence and the large amount of interregional transfers that are required to make the North Korean economy economically viable. We also model the impact of foreign aid, migration and borrowing abroad for the transition process...

  4. Deterministic multidimensional growth model for small-world networks

    CERN Document Server

    Peng, Aoyuan

    2011-01-01

    We proposed a deterministic multidimensional growth model for small-world networks. The model can characterize the distinguishing properties of many real-life networks with geometric space structure. Our results show the model possesses small-world effect: larger clustering coefficient and smaller characteristic path length. We also obtain some accurate results for its properties including degree distribution, clustering coefficient and network diameter and discuss them. It is also worth noting that we get an accurate analytical expression for calculating the characteristic path length. We verify numerically and experimentally these main features.

  5. Growth models of Thermus aquaticus and Thermus scotoductus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Libor Babák

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Members of the genus Thermus family are signifiant producers of secondary metabolites, which are very commonly used in industry. Beside the productivity, it is also important to study the growth curve of each strain. The mathematical models which are commonly used to describe behavior of microbial strains under different physical and chemical conditions can reduce measured data.In this study, the mathematical models which describe only the microbial count were used. For analysis, Verhulst model, von Bertalanffy model and Richards model were chosen.During the cultivation of Thermus aquaticus and Thermus scotoductus strains, optical density (OD and concentration of microorganisms were measured. The mathematical models were fitted to experimental data. The fitting was made in program MATLAB. The coefficients of models and statistical evaluation of goodness of fit of models were identified from mathematical analyses. Graphs of individual models were plotted with prediction bounds. 95% confidence levels were used to statistical evaluation of goodness of fit of models and prediction bounds.Richards model was evaluted as the most corresponding with experimental data. Similar results were reached using Verhulst model. Von Bertalanffy model was not coresponded with experimental data.

  6. New Classification Methods for Hiding Information into Two Parts: Multimedia Files and Non Multimedia Files

    CERN Document Server

    Alanazi, Hamdan O; Zaidan, B B; Jalab, Hamid A; AL-Ani, Zaidoon Kh

    2010-01-01

    With the rapid development of various multimedia technologies, more and more multimedia data are generated and transmitted in the medical, commercial, and military fields, which may include some sensitive information which should not be accessed by or can only be partially exposed to the general users. Therefore, security and privacy has become an important, Another problem with digital document and video is that undetectable modifications can be made with very simple and widely available equipment, which put the digital material for evidential purposes under question .With the large flood of information and the development of the digital format Information hiding considers one of the techniques which used to protect the important information. The main goals for this paper, provides a general overview of the New Classification Methods for Hiding Information into Two Parts: Multimedia Files and Non Multimedia Files.

  7. Growth of inclined fatigue cracks using the biaxial CJP model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Laboviciute

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The CJP model of crack tip stresses is a modified version of the Williams crack tip stress field which takes account of simplified stress distributions that arise from the presence of a zone of plastic deformation associated with the crack flanks and crack tip, and that act on the elastic field responsible for driving crack growth. The elastic stress field responsible for crack growth is therefore controlled by the applied loading and by the induced boundary stresses at the interface with the plastic zone. This meso-scale model of crack tip stresses leads to a modified set of crack tip stress intensity factors that include the resultant influence of plastic wake-induced crack tip shielding, and which therefore have the potential to help resolve some longstanding controversies associated with plasticity-induced closure. A full-field approach has now been developed for stress using photoelasticity and also for displacement using digital image correlation. This paper considers the characterisation of crack growth rate data with the biaxial CJP model, using compact tension specimens that contain inclined cracks at the notch tip with initial angles of 30°, 45° and 60° to the horizontal axis. Significant experimental difficulties are experienced in growing cracks in a biaxial field under uniaxial tensile loading, as the natural tendency of the crack is to turn so that it becomes perpendicular to the maximum principal stress direction. However, crack angle is not an issue in the CJP model which calculates the stress field parallel with, and perpendicular to, the crack plane. These stress components can be rotated into directions comparable with the usual KI and KII directions and used to calculate stress intensity parameters that should be directly comparable with the standard stress intensity formulations. Another difficulty arises, however, in finding published expressions for KI and KII for CT specimens with curved or kinked cracks. The CJP model

  8. Multilevel modeling in the context of growth modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moerbeek, Mirjam

    2014-01-01

    Multilevel modeling is a flexible approach for the analysis of nested data structures, such as those encountered in longitudinal studies with repeated measures of an outcome of interest taken across time and nested within subjects. The baseline score on the outcome and rate of change vary across sub

  9. Comparison of Gompertz and neural network models of broiler growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, W B; Dozier, W A; Branton, S L

    2006-04-01

    Neural networks offer an alternative to regression analysis for biological growth modeling. Very little research has been conducted to model animal growth using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five male chicks (Ross x Ross 308) were raised in an environmental chamber. Body weights were determined daily and feed and water were provided ad libitum. The birds were fed a starter diet (23% CP and 3,200 kcal of ME/kg) from 0 to 21 d, and a grower diet (20% CP and 3,200 kcal of ME/ kg) from 22 to 70 d. Dead and female birds were not included in the study. Average BW of 18 birds were used as the data points for the growth curve to be modeled. Training data consisted of alternate-day weights starting with the first day. Validation data consisted of BW at all other age periods. Comparison was made between the modeling by the Gompertz nonlinear regression equation and neural network modeling. Neural network models were developed with the Neuroshell Predictor. Accuracy of the models was determined by mean square error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and bias. The Gompertz equation was fit for the data. Forecasting error measurements were based on the difference between the model and the observed values. For the training data, the lowest MSE, MAD, MAPE, and bias were noted for the neural-developed neural network. For the validation data, the lowest MSE and MAD were noted with the genetic algorithm-developed neural network. Lowest bias was for the neural-developed network. As measured by bias, the Gompertz equation underestimated the values whereas the neural- and genetic-developed neural networks produced little or no overestimation of the observed BW responses. Past studies have attempted to interpret the biological significance of the estimates of the parameters of an equation. However, it may be more practical to ignore the relevance of parameter estimates and focus on the ability to predict responses.

  10. Model for acid-base chemistry in nanoparticle growth (MABNAG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Yli-Juuti

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of newly-formed atmospheric secondary aerosol particles are to a large extent determined by their condensational growth rates. However, all the vapors condensing on atmospheric nanoparticles and growing them to climatically relevant sizes are not identified yet and the effects of particle phase processes on particle growth rates are poorly known. Besides sulfuric acid, organic compounds are known to contribute significantly to atmospheric nanoparticle growth. In this study a particle growth model MABNAG (Model for Acid-Base chemistry in NAnoparticle Growth was developed to study the effect of salt formation on nanoparticle growth, which has been proposed as a potential mechanism lowering the equilibrium vapor pressures of organic compounds through dissociation in the particle phase and thus preventing their evaporation. MABNAG is a model for monodisperse aqueous particles and it couples dynamics of condensation to particle phase chemistry. Non-zero equilibrium vapor pressures, with both size and composition dependence, are considered for condensation. The model was applied for atmospherically relevant systems with sulfuric acid, one organic acid, ammonia, one amine and water in the gas phase allowed to condense on 3–20 nm particles. The effect of dissociation of the organic acid was found to be small under ambient conditions typical for a boreal forest site, but considerable for base-rich environments (gas phase concentrations of about 1010 cm−3 for the sum of the bases. The contribution of the bases to particle mass decreased as particle size increased, except at very high gas phase concentrations of the bases. The relative importance of amine versus ammonia did not change significantly as a function of particle size. While our results give a reasonable first estimate on the maximum contribution of salt formation to nanoparticle growth, further studies on, e.g. the thermodynamic properties of the atmospheric organics

  11. Model for acid-base chemistry in nanoparticle growth (MABNAG)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yli-Juuti, T.; Barsanti, K.; Hildebrandt Ruiz, L.; Kieloaho, A.-J.; Makkonen, U.; Petäjä, T.; Ruuskanen, T.; Kulmala, M.; Riipinen, I.

    2013-12-01

    Climatic effects of newly-formed atmospheric secondary aerosol particles are to a large extent determined by their condensational growth rates. However, all the vapours condensing on atmospheric nanoparticles and growing them to climatically relevant sizes are not identified yet and the effects of particle phase processes on particle growth rates are poorly known. Besides sulfuric acid, organic compounds are known to contribute significantly to atmospheric nanoparticle growth. In this study a particle growth model MABNAG (Model for Acid-Base chemistry in NAnoparticle Growth) was developed to study the effect of salt formation on nanoparticle growth, which has been proposed as a potential mechanism lowering the equilibrium vapour pressures of organic compounds through dissociation in the particle phase and thus preventing their evaporation. MABNAG is a model for monodisperse aqueous particles and it couples dynamics of condensation to particle phase chemistry. Non-zero equilibrium vapour pressures, with both size and composition dependence, are considered for condensation. The model was applied for atmospherically relevant systems with sulfuric acid, one organic acid, ammonia, one amine and water in the gas phase allowed to condense on 3-20 nm particles. The effect of dissociation of the organic acid was found to be small under ambient conditions typical for a boreal forest site, but considerable for base-rich environments (gas phase concentrations of about 1010 cm-3 for the sum of the bases). The contribution of the bases to particle mass decreased as particle size increased, except at very high gas phase concentrations of the bases. The relative importance of amine versus ammonia did not change significantly as a function of particle size. While our results give a reasonable first estimate on the maximum contribution of salt formation to nanoparticle growth, further studies on, e.g. the thermodynamic properties of the atmospheric organics, concentrations of low

  12. Dynamic Modeling of Aerobic Growth of Shewanella oneidensis. Predicting Triauxic Growth, Flux Distributions and Energy Requirement for Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hyun-Seob; Ramkrishna, Doraiswami; Pinchuk, Grigoriy E.; Beliaev, Alex S.; Konopka, Allan; Fredrickson, Jim K.

    2013-01-01

    A model-based analysis is conducted to investigate metabolism of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 strain in aerobic batch culture, which exhibits an intriguing growth pattern by sequentially consuming substrate (i.e., lactate) and by-products (i.e., pyruvate and acetate). A general protocol is presented for developing a detailed network-based dynamic model for S. oneidensis based on the Lumped Hybrid Cybernetic Model (LHCM) framework. The L-HCM, although developed from only limited data, is shown to accurately reproduce exacting dynamic metabolic shifts, and provide reasonable estimates of energy requirement for growth. Flux distributions in S. oneidensis predicted by the L-HCM compare very favorably with 13C-metabolic flux analysis results reported in the literature. Predictive accuracy is enhanced by incorporating measurements of only a few intracellular fluxes, in addition to extracellular metabolites. The L-HCM developed here for S. oneidensis is consequently a promising tool for the analysis of intracellular flux distribution and metabolic engineering.

  13. Modeling of defect formation in silicon carbide during PVT growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drachev, Roman Victorovich

    2002-01-01

    The improvement of PVT grown SiC structural quality is crucial for the wide commercialization of SiC devices that feature superior characteristics for power conditioning and control. This is why, this dissertation is devoted to investigation and development of comprehensive models that can help to explain, understand and, then, suppress (eliminate) formation of various defects in SiC during PVT growth. The dissertation consists of six chapters. The first chapter is introductory. The second chapter considers in detail the general principles and physical bases of the SiC PVT growth technique along with the temperature dependence of pressure, composition and stoichiometry of the SiC gaseous phase. Questions related to the diffusive mass transport in the SiC growth cell are also discussed. The growth velocity as a function of the mass transport rate, the heat balance at the surface of crystallization and the growth front-crystal backside temperature difference is analyzed. Also the graphitization processes and instability of the sublimation temperature in the source material region are addressed. Chapter number three concerns generation of silicon and carbon second phase precipitates at the front of SiC crystallization. The comprehensive models concerning these phenomena are developed. The fourth chapter considers defect formation in SiC caused by the presence of carbon and/or silicon second phase particles at the growth front. Generation mechanisms of such structural defects as heterogeneous inclusions, point and planar defects, and filamentary voids are discussed in detail. Chapter number five deals with the defects caused by thermal stresses in the growing boule of SiC. Analytical estimations of the axially symmetric temperature field distribution and shear stress radial distribution in plane strain approximation are employed in order to estimate the extent to which such phenomena cause the generation of dislocations and micropipe formation in the growing ingot. The

  14. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of Czochralski Crystal Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaervinen, J.; Nieminen, R. [Center for Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    A detailed mathematical model and numerical simulation tools based on the SUPG Finite Element Method for the Czochralski crystal growth has been developed. In this presentation the mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the melt flow and the temperature distribution in a rotationally symmetric crystal growth environment is investigated. The temperature distribution and the position of the free boundary between the solid and liquid phases are solved by using the Enthalpy method. Heat inside of the Czochralski furnace is transferred by radiation, conduction and convection. The melt flow is governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations coupled with the enthalpy equation. The melt flow is numerically demonstrated and the temperature distribution in the whole Czochralski furnace. (author)

  15. Modelling of Verneuil process for the sapphire crystal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barvinschi, Floricica; Santailler, Jean-Louis; Duffar, Thierry; Le Gal, Hervé

    1999-03-01

    The finite element software FIDAP was used to simulate the Verneuil crystal growth process. The turbulent combustion between hydrogen and oxygen, giving water, the hydrodynamics of the gas phase, the inlet and outlet chemical species flow resulting from the combustion and the heat transfer in the furnace (including internal wall-to-wall radiation) are taken into account. A problem with 10 degrees of freedom per node is generated, solved and the results of the axisymmetric model have shown that the coupling of all these phenomena can be achieved in one numerical model. The effects of transparency of the crystal is discussed. A qualitative agreement between some experimental observations and the model is found, so that modelling may be a good tool for studying the Verneuil process. Nevertheless, some improvements of the model in conjunction with other experimental validations appear necessary.

  16. Dynamic Metabolic Modeling of Denitrifying Bacterial Growth: The Cybernetic Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Hyun-Seob; Liu, Chongxuan

    2015-06-29

    Denitrification is a multistage reduction process converting nitrate ultimately to nitrogen gas, carried out mostly by facultative bacteria. Modeling of the denitrification process is challenging due to the complex metabolic regulation that modulates sequential formation and consumption of a series of nitrogen oxide intermediates, which serve as the final electron acceptors for denitrifying bacteria. In this work, we examined the effectiveness and accuracy of the cybernetic modeling framework in simulating the growth dynamics of denitrifying bacteria in comparison with kinetic models. In four different case studies using the literature data, we successfully simulated diauxic and triauxic growth patterns observed in anoxic and aerobic conditions, only by tuning two or three parameters. In order to understand the regulatory structure of the cybernetic model, we systematically analyzed the effect of cybernetic control variables on simulation accuracy. The results showed that the consideration of both enzyme synthesis and activity control through u- and v-variables is necessary and relevant and that uvariables are of greater importance in comparison to v-variables. In contrast, simple kinetic models were unable to accurately capture dynamic metabolic shifts across alternative electron acceptors, unless an inhibition term was additionally incorporated. Therefore, the denitrification process represents a reasonable example highlighting the criticality of considering dynamic regulation for successful metabolic modeling.

  17. Spending Natural Resource Revenues in an Altruistic Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Elisabeth Hermann

    This paper examines how revenues from a natural resource interact with growth and welfare in an overlapping generations model with altruism. The revenues are allocated between public productive services and direct transfers to members of society by spending policies. We analyze how these policies...... and in spending policies may be part of the reason why natural resources seem to affect economic performance across nations differently...

  18. Tumor Growth Model with PK Input for Neuroblastoma Drug Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    9/2012 - 4/30/2017 2.40 calendar NCI Anticancer Drug Pharmacology in Very Young Children The proposed studies will use pharmacokinetic... anticancer drugs . DOD W81XWH-14-1-0103 CA130396 (Stewart) 9/1/2014 - 8/31/2016 .60 calendar DOD-DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY Tumor Growth Model with PK... anticancer drugs . .60 calendar V Foundation Translational (Stewart) 11/1/2012-10/31/2015 THE V FDN FOR CA RES Identification & preclinical testing

  19. Micro- and macrostresses in two level model of coating growth

    OpenAIRE

    N. N. Nazarenko; Knyazeva, Anna Georgievna

    2014-01-01

    In the work, a two level model of coating growing with the diffusion and chemical compounds formation is proposed. The process of coating formation includes different physico-chemical steps and transformations of the structure. From the experiments it was established that the coating consists of the following substances: 4+ titanium oxide, titanium pyrophosphate, calcium pyrophosphate, calcium titanophosphate. Coating growth rate is determined by the deposition rate and the dispersion of the ...

  20. Effects of seasonal growth on delayed prey-predator model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gakkhar, Sunita [Department of Mathematics, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee 247667 (India)], E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in; Sahani, Saroj Kumar [Department of Mathematics, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee 247667 (India)], E-mail: sarojdma@iitr.ernet.in; Negi, Kuldeep [Department of Mathematics, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee 247667 (India)], E-mail: negikdma@iitr.ernet.in

    2009-01-15

    The dynamic behavior of a delayed predator-prey system with Holling II functional response is investigated. The stability analysis has been carried out and existence of Hopf bifurcation has been established. The complex dynamic behavior due to time delay has been explored. The effects of seasonal growth on the complex dynamics have been simulated. The model shows a rich variety of behavior, including period doubling, quasi-periodicity, chaos, transient chaos, and windows of periodicity.

  1. Growth versus environment in dynamic models of capital accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toichiro Asada

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the economic implications of the trade off between growth and environment in the context of dynamic models of capital accumulation. The collective solution is formulated in terms of dynamic optimization of the central planner, and the decentralized solution is formulated in terms of differential game between workers and capitalists. We compare the economic properties of two solutions.

  2. Heterogeneous Conformism and Wealth Distribution in a Neoclassical Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    Mino, Kazuo; Nakamoto, Yasuhiro

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the role of consumption externalities in a neoclassical growth model in which households have heterogeneous preferences. We fi nd that a higher degree of average conformism accelerates the convergence speed of the economy towards the steady state as in the case of homogeneous conformism. Furthermore, we reveal that the wealth inequality expands or shrinks in the case of heterogeneous conformism, while it does not expand but shrinks in the case of homogeneous conformism.

  3. On the growth and dissemination laws in a mathematical model of metastatic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benzekry Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Metastasis represents one of the main clinical challenge in cancer treatment since it is associated with the majority of deaths. Recent technological advances allow quantification of the dynamics of the process by means of noninvasive techniques such as longitudinal tracking of bioluminescent cells. The metastatic process was simplified here into two essential components – dissemination and colonization – which were mathematically formalized in terms of simple quantitative laws. The resulting mathematical model was confronted to in vivo experimental data of spontaneous metastasis after primary tumor resection. We discuss how much information can be inferred from confrontation of theories to the data with emphasis on identifiability issues. It is shown that two mutually exclusive assumptions for the secondary growth law (namely same or different from the primary tumor growth law could fit equally well the data. Similarly, the fractal dimension coeffcient in the dissemination law could not be uniquely determined from data on total metastatic burden only. Together, these results delimitate the range of information that can be recovered from fitting data of metastatic growth to already simplified mathematical models.

  4. Mechanistic modeling of turkey growth response to genotype and nutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Torres, V; Ferket, P R; Sauvant, D

    2011-10-01

    Along with the fast genetic improvement, nutritional and environmental effects on poultry growth performance have made it necessary to develop growth models that have the flexibility to adapt to different genotypes and growing conditions. A mechanistic simulation model of energy and nutrient utilization in growing turkeys is presented herein. The model consists of simulating the average homeorhetic and homeostatic regulations associated with the utilization of circulating glucose, fatty acid, AA, and acetyl-CoA for protein and lipid retention in carcass, viscera, and feathers in a turkey population. Homeorhesis plays a major role in the control of protein and lipid turnover for the definition of genetic potential and feed intake, whereas homeostasis adjusts growth rate through protein and lipid turnover rates and, therefore, BW gain and feed intake to the growing conditions. Also, homeostasis enables the maintenance of a dynamic balance state during all the growing period through the control of circulating nutrient concentration. The model was developed and calibrated with experimental data that described energy utilization in male and female growing turkeys. Then, the ability of the model to adapt to genotypes and to predict the average response of a turkey population to dietary energy was evaluated. Model calibration showed simulations of energy and nutrient utilization that fitted well with the experimental data because ME was satisfyingly partitioned into heat production and energy retention as protein and lipid, and nutrient intake accurately partitioned BW gain into carcass, viscera, and feathers. The evaluation of the model was also satisfactory because BW gain and feed-to-gain ratio were globally in accordance with the observations in different male and female genotypes, in spite of an overestimation of the feed-to-gain ratio during the first weeks of age. Model evaluation showed that the BW gain and feed intake response of growing turkeys to dietary energy

  5. Modeling algae growth in an open-channel raceway.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Scott Carlton

    2010-09-01

    Cost-effective implementation of microalgae as a solar-to-chemical energy conversion platform requires extensive system optimization; computer modeling can bring this to bear. This work uses modified versions of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) in conjunction with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers water-quality code (CE-QUAL) to simulate hydrodynamics coupled to growth kinetics of algae (Phaeodactylum tricornutum) in open-channel raceways. The model allows the flexibility to manipulate a host of variables associated with raceway-design, algal-growth, water-quality, hydrodynamic, and atmospheric conditions. The model provides realistic results wherein growth rates follow the diurnal fluctuation of solar irradiation and temperature. The greatest benefit that numerical simulation of the flow system offers is the ability to design the raceway before construction, saving considerable cost and time. Moreover, experiment operators can evaluate the impacts of various changes to system conditions (e.g., depth, temperature, flow speeds) without risking the algal biomass under study.

  6. Modeling algae growth in an open-channel raceway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Scott C; Boriah, Varun

    2010-07-01

    Cost-effective implementation of microalgae as a solar-to-chemical energy conversion platform requires extensive system optimization; computer modeling can bring this to bear. This work uses modified versions of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) in conjunction with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers' water-quality code (CE-QUAL) to simulate hydrodynamics coupled to growth kinetics of algae (Phaeodactylum tricornutum) in open-channel raceways. The model allows the flexibility to manipulate a host of variables associated with raceway-design, algal-growth, water-quality, hydrodynamic, and atmospheric conditions. The model provides realistic results wherein growth rates follow the diurnal fluctuation of solar irradiation and temperature. The greatest benefit that numerical simulation of the flow system offers is the ability to design the raceway before construction, saving considerable cost and time. Moreover, experiment operators can evaluate the impacts of various changes to system conditions (e.g., depth, temperature, flow speeds) without risking the algal biomass under study.

  7. Viscosity solutions for a polymer crystal growth model

    CERN Document Server

    Cardaliaguet, Pierre; Monteillet, Aurélien

    2010-01-01

    We prove existence of a solution for a polymer crystal growth model describing the movement of a front $(\\Gamma(t))$ evolving with a nonlocal velocity. In this model the nonlocal velocity is linked to the solution of a heat equation with source $\\delta_\\Gamma$. The proof relies on new regularity results for the eikonal equation, in which the velocity is positive but merely measurable in time and with H\\"{o}lder bounds in space. From this result, we deduce \\textit{a priori} regularity for the front. On the other hand, under this regularity assumption, we prove bounds and regularity estimates for the solution of the heat equation.

  8. A new growth model for the Russian economy1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Kudrin

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The problems underlying the current slowdown of the Russian economy are of a persistent nature and cannot be resolved with simple measures such as a softer monetary or fiscal policy. The fundamen- tal reason for these problems is the weak market environment dominated by public and quasi-public companies. A new growth model should be based upon strong incentive for the business, as well as the government regulation system, to improve efficiency. This article defines the main steps to be taken in building such a model.

  9. Modeling nano-scale grain growth of intermetallics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mohsen Kazeminezhad

    2009-02-01

    The Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to model the nano-scale grain growth of two nanocrystalline materials, Pd81Zr19 and RuAl. In this regard, the relationship between the real time and the time unit of simulation, i.e. Monte Carlo step (MCS), is determined. The results of modeling show that with increasing time of heating, the grain sizes of both nano-crystalline materials increased as in the case of conventional materials. Moreover, it is found that for both nano-crystalline materials the relationship between the real time and MCS is in power law form, which is linear for the conventional materials.

  10. Velocity selection in the symmetric model of dendritic crystal growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbieri, Angelo; Hong, Daniel C.; Langer, J. S.

    1987-01-01

    An analytic solution of the problem of velocity selection in a fully nonlocal model of dendritic crystal growth is presented. The analysis uses a WKB technique to derive and evaluate a solvability condition for the existence of steady-state needle-like solidification fronts in the limit of small under-cooling Delta. For the two-dimensional symmetric model with a capillary anisotropy of strength alpha, it is found that the velocity is proportional to (Delta to the 4th) times (alpha exp 7/4). The application of the method in three dimensions is also described.

  11. Viscosity solutions for a polymer crystal growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Cardaliaguet, Pierre; Ley, Olivier; Monteillet, Aurélien

    2011-01-01

    International audience; We prove existence of a solution for a polymer crystal growth model describing the movement of a front $(\\Gamma(t))$ evolving with a nonlocal velocity. In this model the nonlocal velocity is linked to the solution of a heat equation with source $\\delta_\\Gamma$. The proof relies on new regularity results for the eikonal equation, in which the velocity is positive but merely measurable in time and with H\\"{o}lder bounds in space. From this result, we deduce \\textit{a pri...

  12. Open Source Software Reliability Growth Model by Considering Change- Point

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashaallah Basirzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The modeling technique for Software Reliability is reaching its prosperity. Software reliability growth models have been used extensively for closed source software. The design and development of open source software (OSS is different from closed source software. We observed some basic characteristics for open source software like (i more instructions execution and code coverage taking place with respect to time, (ii release early, release often (iii frequent addition of patches (iv heterogeneity in fault density and effort expenditure (v Frequent release activities seem to have changed the bug dynamics significantly (vi Bug reporting on bug tracking system drastically increases and decreases. Due to this reason bug reported on bug tracking system keeps an irregular state and fluctuations. Therefore, fault detection/removal process can not be smooth and may be changed at some time point called change-point. In this paper, an instructions executed dependent software reliability growth model has been developed by considering change-point in order to cater diverse and huge user profile, irregular state of bug tracking system and heterogeneity in fault distribution. We have analyzed actual software failure count data to show numerical examples of software reliability assessment for the OSS. We also compare our model with the conventional in terms of goodness-of-fit for actual data. We have shown that the proposed model can assist improvement of quality for OSS systems developed under the open source project.

  13. Simulation model for plant growth in controlled environment systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raper, C. D., Jr.; Wann, M.

    1986-01-01

    The role of the mathematical model is to relate the individual processes to environmental conditions and the behavior of the whole plant. Using the controlled-environment facilities of the phytotron at North Carolina State University for experimentation at the whole-plant level and methods for handling complex models, researchers developed a plant growth model to describe the relationships between hierarchial levels of the crop production system. The fundamental processes that are considered are: (1) interception of photosynthetically active radiation by leaves, (2) absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, (3) photosynthetic transformation of absorbed radiation into chemical energy of carbon bonding in solube carbohydrates in the leaves, (4) translocation between carbohydrate pools in leaves, stems, and roots, (5) flow of energy from carbohydrate pools for respiration, (6) flow from carbohydrate pools for growth, and (7) aging of tissues. These processes are described at the level of organ structure and of elementary function processes. The driving variables of incident photosynthetically active radiation and ambient temperature as inputs pertain to characterization at the whole-plant level. The output of the model is accumulated dry matter partitioned among leaves, stems, and roots; thus, the elementary processes clearly operate under the constraints of the plant structure which is itself the output of the model.

  14. Models of lipid droplets growth and fission in adipocyte cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boschi, Federico, E-mail: federico.boschi@univr.it [Department of Computer Science, University of Verona, Strada Le Grazie 15, 37134 Verona (Italy); Rizzatti, Vanni; Zamboni, Mauro [Department of Medicine, Geriatric Section, University of Verona, Piazzale Stefani 1, 37126 Verona (Italy); Sbarbati, Andrea [Department of Neurological and Movement Sciences, University of Verona, Strada Le Grazie 8, 37134 Verona (Italy)

    2015-08-15

    catabolism (fission and the decrease through neutral lipid exit from pre-existing droplets) to reproduce their size reduction observed in lipolytic conditions. The results suggest that each single process, considered alone, can not be considered the only responsible for the size variation observed, but more than one of them, playing together, can quite well reproduce the experimental data. - Highlights: The growth and fission of the lipid droplets (LDs) were computationally simulated. To write and test the growth and fission models more than 110,000 LDs were measured. The usual processes considered alone, are not able to justify the experimental data. Some processes, playing together, can explain the growth and fission.

  15. Multiphase modelling of vascular tumour growth in two spatial dimensions

    KAUST Repository

    Hubbard, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we present a continuum mathematical model of vascular tumour growth which is based on a multiphase framework in which the tissue is decomposed into four distinct phases and the principles of conservation of mass and momentum are applied to the normal/healthy cells, tumour cells, blood vessels and extracellular material. The inclusion of a diffusible nutrient, supplied by the blood vessels, allows the vasculature to have a nonlocal influence on the other phases. Two-dimensional computational simulations are carried out on unstructured, triangular meshes to allow a natural treatment of irregular geometries, and the tumour boundary is captured as a diffuse interface on this mesh, thereby obviating the need to explicitly track the (potentially highly irregular and ill-defined) tumour boundary. A hybrid finite volume/finite element algorithm is used to discretise the continuum model: the application of a conservative, upwind, finite volume scheme to the hyperbolic mass balance equations and a finite element scheme with a stable element pair to the generalised Stokes equations derived from momentum balance, leads to a robust algorithm which does not use any form of artificial stabilisation. The use of a matrix-free Newton iteration with a finite element scheme for the nutrient reaction-diffusion equations allows full nonlinearity in the source terms of the mathematical model.Numerical simulations reveal that this four-phase model reproduces the characteristic pattern of tumour growth in which a necrotic core forms behind an expanding rim of well-vascularised proliferating tumour cells. The simulations consistently predict linear tumour growth rates. The dependence of both the speed with which the tumour grows and the irregularity of the invading tumour front on the model parameters is investigated. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Growth and yield models for Dahurian larch plantations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuan Jinlan

    1999-01-01

    Several equations were seiected using nonlinear regression analysis for setting up growth and yield models of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations. Data of 405 stem analysis trees were collected from 336 temporary plots throughout the Daxing'an Mountains. Results showed that the Richards equation was the best model for estimating tree height, stand mean height and stand dominant height by age; the Power equation was the fittest model for predicting tree volume by DBH and tree height, and the Logarithmic stand volume equation was good for predicting stand volume from age, mean height, basal area and other stand variables. These models can be used to construct volume tables, site index table and other forestry tables for Dahurian plantations.

  17. Travelling wave analysis of a mathematical model of glioblastoma growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlee, Philip; Nelander, Sven

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we analyse a previously proposed cell-based model of glioblastoma (brain tumour) growth, which is based on the assumption that the cancer cells switch phenotypes between a proliferative and motile state (Gerlee and Nelander, 2012). The dynamics of this model can be described by a system of partial differential equations, which exhibits travelling wave solutions whose wave speed depends crucially on the rates of phenotypic switching. We show that under certain conditions on the model parameters, a closed form expression of the wave speed can be obtained, and using singular perturbation methods we also derive an approximate expression of the wave front shape. These new analytical results agree with simulations of the cell-based model, and importantly show that the inverse relationship between wave front steepness and speed observed for the Fisher equation no longer holds when phenotypic switching is considered.

  18. Numerical Modeling of Dendrite Growth in Al Alloys

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许庆彦; 柳百成

    2004-01-01

    Dendritic grains are the most often observed microstructure in metals and alloys. In the past decade, more and more attention has been paid to the modeling and simulation of dendritic microstructures. This paper describes a modified diffusion-limited aggregation model to simulate the complex shape of the dendrite grains during metal solidification. The fractal model was used to simulate equiaxed dendrite growth. The fractal dimensions of simulated Al alloy structures range from 1.63-1.88 which compares well with the experimentally-measured fractal dimension of 1.85; therefore, the model accurately predicts not only the dendritic structure morphology, but also the fractal dimension of the dendrite structure formed during solidification.

  19. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  20. Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

    2013-01-01

    A new and extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was developed and validated for processed and unprocessed products of seafood and meat. The new model was developed by refitting and expanding an existing cardinal parameter model for growth and the growth...... of psychrotolerant LAB (Tmin), the existing LAB model was refitted to data from experiments with seafood and meat products reported not to include nitrite or any of the four organic acids evaluated in the present study. Next, dimensionless terms modelling the antimicrobial effect of nitrite, and acetic, benzoic......, was successfully validated using 229 growth rates (μmax values) for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products. Average bias and accuracy factor values of 1.08 and 1.27, respectively, were obtained when observed and predicted μmax values of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. were compared...

  1. Development of a program to fit data to a new logistic model for microbial growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Kano, Yoshihiro

    2009-06-01

    Recently we developed a mathematical model for microbial growth in food. The model successfully predicted microbial growth at various patterns of temperature. In this study, we developed a program to fit data to the model with a spread sheet program, Microsoft Excel. Users can instantly get curves fitted to the model by inputting growth data and choosing the slope portion of a curve. The program also could estimate growth parameters including the rate constant of growth and the lag period. This program would be a useful tool for analyzing growth data and further predicting microbial growth.

  2. Interfacial properties in a discrete model for tumor growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moglia, Belén; Guisoni, Nara; Albano, Ezequiel V.

    2013-03-01

    We propose and study, by means of Monte Carlo numerical simulations, a minimal discrete model for avascular tumor growth, which can also be applied for the description of cell cultures in vitro. The interface of the tumor is self-affine and its width can be characterized by the following exponents: (i) the growth exponent β=0.32(2) that governs the early time regime, (ii) the roughness exponent α=0.49(2) related to the fluctuations in the stationary regime, and (iii) the dynamic exponent z=α/β≃1.49(2), which measures the propagation of correlations in the direction parallel to the interface, e.g., ξ∝t1/z, where ξ is the parallel correlation length. Therefore, the interface belongs to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class, in agreement with recent experiments of cell cultures in vitro. Furthermore, density profiles of the growing cells are rationalized in terms of traveling waves that are solutions of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. In this way, we achieved excellent agreement between the simulation results of the discrete model and the continuous description of the growth front of the culture or tumor.

  3. Two-state mechanochemical model for microtubule growth

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Yunxin

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a two-state mechanochemical model is presented to describe the dynamic properties of microtubule (MT) growth in cells. The MT switches between two states, assembly state and disassembly state. In assembly state, the growth of microtubule includes two processes: GTP-tubulin binding to the tip of protofilament (PF) and conformational change of PF, during which the penultimate GTP is hydrolyzed and the first tubulin unit that curls out the MT surface is rearranged into MT surface using the energy released from GTP hydrolysis. In disassembly state, the shortening of microtubule is also described by two processes, the release of GDP-tibulin from the tip of PF and one new tubulin unit curls out from the MT surface. Switches between these two states, which are usually called rescue and catastrophe, happen stochastically with external force dependent rates. Using this two-state model with parameters obtained by fitting the recent experimental data, detailed properties of MT growth are obtained, we find...

  4. Modeling of aluminum-silicon irregular eutectic growth by cellular automaton model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Chen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the extensive application of Al-Si alloys in the automotive and aerospace industries as structural components, an understanding of their microstructural formation, such as dendrite and (Al+Si eutectic, is of great importance to control the desirable microstructure, so as to modify the performance of castings. Since previous major themes of microstructural simulation are dendrite and regular eutectic growth, few efforts have been paid to simulate the irregular eutectic growth. Therefore, a multiphase cellular automaton (CA model is developed and applied to simulate the time-dependent Al-Si irregular eutectic growth. Prior to model establishment, related experiments were carried out to investigate the influence of cooling rate and Sr modification on the growth of eutectic Si. This CA model incorporates several aspects, including growth algorithms and nucleation criterion, to achieve the competitive and cooperative growth mechanism for nonfaceted-faceted Al-Si irregular eutectic. The growth kinetics considers thermal undercooling, constitutional undercooling, and curvature undercooling, as well as the anisotropic characteristic of eutectic Si growth. The capturing rule takes into account the effects of modification on the silicon growth behaviors. The simulated results indicate that for unmodified alloy, the higher eutectic undercooling results in the higher eutectic growth velocity, and a more refined eutectic microstructure as well as narrower eutectic lamellar spacing. For modified alloy, the eutectic silicon tends to be obvious fibrous morphology and the morphology of eutectic Si is determined by both chemical modifier and cooling rate. The predicted microstructure of Al-7Si alloy under different solidification conditions shows that this proposed model can successfully reproduce both dendrite and eutectic microstructures.

  5. Modeling of aluminum-silicon irregular eutectic growth by cellular automaton model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rui Chen; Qing-yan Xu; Bai-cheng Liu

    2016-01-01

    Due to the extensive application of Al-Si aloys in the automotive and aerospace industries as structural components, an understanding of their microstructural formation, such as dendrite and (Al+Si) eutectic, is of great importance to control the desirable microstructure, so as to modify the performance of castings. Since previous major themes of microstructural simulation are dendrite and regular eutectic growth, few efforts have been paid to simulate the irregular eutectic growth. Therefore, a multiphase celular automaton (CA) model is developed and applied to simulate the time-dependent Al-Si irregular eutectic growth. Prior to model establishment, related experiments were carried out to investigate the inlfuence of cooling rate and Sr modiifcation on the growth of eutectic Si. This CA model incorporates several aspects, including growth algorithms and nucleation criterion, to achieve the competitive and cooperative growth mechanism for nonfaceted-faceted Al-Si irregular eutectic. The growth kinetics considers thermal undercooling, constitutional undercooling, and curvature undercooling, as wel as the anisotropic characteristic of eutectic Si growth. The capturing rule takes into account the effects of modiifcation on the silicon growth behaviors. The simulated results indicate that for unmodiifed aloy, the higher eutectic undercooling results in the higher eutectic growth velocity, and a more reifned eutectic microstructure as wel as narrower eutectic lamelar spacing. For modiifed aloy, the eutectic silicon tends to be obvious ifbrous morphology and the morphology of eutectic Si is determined by both chemical modiifer and cooling rate. The predicted microstructure of Al-7Si aloy under different solidiifcation conditions shows that this proposed model can successfuly reproduce both dendrite and eutectic microstructures.

  6. Growth instability due to lattice-induced topological currents in limited-mobility epitaxial growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanjanaput, Wittawat; Limkumnerd, Surachate; Chatraphorn, Patcha

    2010-10-01

    The energetically driven Ehrlich-Schwoebel barrier had been generally accepted as the primary cause of the growth instability in the form of quasiregular moundlike structures observed on the surface of thin film grown via molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE) technique. Recently the second mechanism of mound formation was proposed in terms of a topologically induced flux of particles originating from the line tension of the step edges which form the contour lines around a mound. Through large-scale simulations of MBE growth on a variety of crystalline lattice planes using limited-mobility, solid-on-solid models introduced by Wolf-Villain and Das Sarma-Tamborenea in 2+1 dimensions, we show that there exists a topological uphill particle current with strong dependence on specific lattice crystalline structure. Without any energetically induced barriers, our simulations produce spectacular mounds very similar, in some cases, to what have been observed in many recent MBE experiments. On a lattice where these currents cease to exist, the surface appears to be scale invariant, statistically rough as predicted by the conventional continuum growth equation.

  7. Research on Estimates of Xi’an City Life Garbage Pay-As-You-Throw Based on Two-part Tariff method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaobo, Shi; Xinxin, Zhao; Fuli, Zheng

    2017-05-01

    Domestic waste whose pricing can’t be separated from the pricing of public economics category is quasi public goods. Based on Two-part Tariff method on urban public utilities, this paper designs the pricing model in order to match the charging method and estimates the standard of pay-as-you-throw using data of the past five years in Xi’an. Finally, this paper summarizes the main results and proposes corresponding policy recommendations.

  8. Evaluating Teachers and Schools Using Student Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William D. Schafer

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Interest in Student Growth Modeling (SGM and Value Added Modeling (VAM arises from educators concerned with measuring the effectiveness of teaching and other school activities through changes in student performance as a companion and perhaps even an alternative to status. Several formal statistical models have been proposed for year-to-year growth and these fall into at least three clusters: simple change (e.g., differences on a vertical scale, residualized change (e.g., simple linear or quantile regression techniques, and value tables (varying salience of different achievement level outcomes across two years. Several of these methods have been implemented by states and districts. This paper reviews relevant literature and reports results of a data-based comparison of six basic SGM models that may permit aggregating across teachers or schools to provide evaluative information. Our investigation raises some issues that may compromise current efforts to implement VAM in teacher and school evaluations and makes suggestions for both practice and research based on the results.

  9. Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

    2015-02-01

    There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models.

  10. Growth and Division of Active Droplets: A Model for Protocells

    CERN Document Server

    Zwicker, David; Weber, Christoph A; Hyman, Anthony A; Jülicher, Frank

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that during the early steps in the origin of life, small droplets could have formed via the segregation of molecules from complex mixtures by phase separation. These droplets could have provided chemical reaction centers. However, whether these droplets could divide and propagate is unclear. Here we examine the behavior of droplets in systems that are maintained away from thermodynamic equilibrium by an external supply of energy. In these systems, droplets grow by the addition of droplet material generated by chemical reactions. Surprisingly, we find that chemically driven droplet growth can lead to shape instabilities that trigger the division of droplets into two smaller daughters. Therefore, chemically active droplets can exhibit cycles of growth and division that resemble the proliferation of living cells. Dividing active droplets could serve as a model for prebiotic protocells, where chemical reactions in the droplet play the role of a prebiotic metabolism.

  11. Phase Characterization of Cucumber Growth: A Chemical Gel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cucumber grows with complex phenomena by changing its volume and shape, which is not fully investigated and challenges agriculture and food safety industry. In order to understand the mechanism and to characterize the growth process, the cucumber is modeled as a hydrogel in swelling and its development is studied in both preharvest and postharvest stages. Based on thermodynamics, constitutive equations, incorporating biological quantities, are established. The growth behavior of cucumber follows the classic theory of continuous or discontinuous phase transition. The mechanism of bulged tail in cucumber is interpreted by phase coexistence and characterized by critical conditions. Conclusions are given for advances in food engineering and novel fabrication techniques in mechanical biology.

  12. Dynamic density functional theory of solid tumor growth: Preliminary models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Chauviere

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Cancer is a disease that can be seen as a complex system whose dynamics and growth result from nonlinear processes coupled across wide ranges of spatio-temporal scales. The current mathematical modeling literature addresses issues at various scales but the development of theoretical methodologies capable of bridging gaps across scales needs further study. We present a new theoretical framework based on Dynamic Density Functional Theory (DDFT extended, for the first time, to the dynamics of living tissues by accounting for cell density correlations, different cell types, phenotypes and cell birth/death processes, in order to provide a biophysically consistent description of processes across the scales. We present an application of this approach to tumor growth.

  13. Modeling Glioma Growth and Invasion in Drosophila melanogaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Teresa Witte

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Glioblastoma is the most common and most malignant intrinsic human brain tumor, characterized by extensive invasion and proliferation of glial (astrocytic tumor cells, frequent activation of tyrosine kinase receptor signaling pathways, relative resistance to chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and poor prognosis. Using the Gal4-UAS system, we have produced glioma models in Drosophila by overexpressing homologs of human tyrosine kinase receptors under control of the glia-specific promoter reversed polarity (repo. Glial overexpression of activated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR resulted in enhanced proliferation and migration of larval glial cells with increased numbers in the eye imaginal disc, diffuse tumor-like enlargement of the optic stalk, and marked ectopic invasion of glial cells along the optic nerve. Glial overexpression of the downstream kinase PI3K showed similar pathology. Overexpression of activated pvr (platelet-derived growth factor receptor/vascular endothelial growth factor receptor homolog led to migration of glial cells along the optic nerve, whereas expression of activated htl (fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 homolog and INR (insulin receptor showed markedly elevated numbers of glial cells in the optic stalk. The EGFR/phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate kinase (PI3K phenotype was partly reverted by the administration of the EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor gefitinib and completely rescued by the PI3K inhibitor wortmannin and the Akt inhibitor triciribine. We suggest that Drosophila models will be useful for deciphering signaling cascades underlying abnormal behavior of glioma cells for genetic screens to reveal interacting genes involved in gliomagenesis and for experimental therapy approaches.

  14. A Knowledge Model- and Growth Model-Based Decision Support System for Wheat Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Yan; CAO Wei-xing; WANG Qi-meng; TIAN Yong-chao; PAN Jie

    2003-01-01

    By applying the system analysis principle and mathematical modeling technique to knowledge expression system for crop cultural management, the fundamental relationships and quantitative algorithms of wheat growth and management indices to variety types, ecological environments and production levels were analysed and extracted, and a dynamic knowledge model with temporal and spatial characters for wheat management (WheatKnow) was developed. By adopting the soft component characteristics as non language rele vance, re-utilization and portable system maintenance, and by further integrating the wheat growth simulation model (WheatGrow) and intelligent system for wheat management, a comprehensive and digital knowledge model, growth model and component-based decision support system for wheat management (MBDSSWM) was established on the platforms of Visual C++ and Visual Basic. The MBDSSWM realized the effective integration and coupling of the prediction and decision-making functions for digital crop management.

  15. A Generalized Bass Model for Product Growth in Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Manshadi, Vahideh H

    2016-01-01

    Many products and innovations become well-known and widely adopted through the social interactions of individuals in a population. The Bass diffusion model has been widely used to model the temporal evolution of adoption in such social systems. In the model, the likelihood of a new adoption is proportional to the number of previous adopters, implicitly assuming a global (or homogeneous) interaction among all individuals in the network. Such global interactions do not exist in many large social networks, however. Instead, individuals typically interact with a small part of the larger population. To quantify the growth rate (or equivalently the adoption timing) in networks with limited interactions, we study a stochastic adoption process where the likelihood that each individual adopts is proportional to the number of adopters among the small group of persons he/she interacts with (and not the entire population of adopters). When the underlying network of interactions is a random $k$-regular graph, we compute t...

  16. Detecting the growth of structures in Pure Stellar Disk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valencia-Enríquez, D.; Puerari, I.; Chaves-Velasquez, L.

    2017-10-01

    We performed a series of 3D N-body simulations where the initial conditions were chosen to get two sets of models; unbarred and barred ones. In this work, we analyze the growth of spirals and bar structures using 1D, and 2D Fourier transform (FT) methods. Spectrograms and diagrams of the amplitude of the Fourier coefficients as a function of time, radius and pitch angle show that the general morphology of our modeled galaxies is due to the superposition of structures which have different values of pitch angle and number of arms. Also, in barred models a geometric classification of orbits from the bar reference frame was done, showing that the barred potential and the Lagrangian points L4 and L5 catch approximately one-third of the total disk mass.

  17. Modeling of Intermetallic Compounds Growth Between Dissimilar Metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Wang, Yin; Prangnell, Philip; Robson, Joseph

    2015-09-01

    A model has been developed to predict growth kinetics of the intermetallic phases (IMCs) formed in a reactive diffusion couple between two metals for the case where multiple IMC phases are observed. The model explicitly accounts for the effect of grain boundary diffusion through the IMC layer, and can thus be used to explore the effect of IMC grain size on the thickening of the reaction layer. The model has been applied to the industrially important case of aluminum to magnesium alloy diffusion couples in which several different IMC phases are possible. It is demonstrated that there is a transition from grain boundary-dominated diffusion to lattice-dominated diffusion at a critical grain size, which is different for each IMC phase. The varying contribution of grain boundary diffusion to the overall thickening kinetics with changing grain size helps explain the large scatter in thickening kinetics reported for diffusion couples produced under different conditions.

  18. Development and validation of extensive growth and growth boundary models for psychrotolerant pseudomonads in seafood, meat and vegetable products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Dalgaard, Paw

    Extensive growth and growth boundary models were developed and validated for psychrotolerant pseudomonads growing in seafood, meat and vegetable products. The new models were developed by expanding anexisting cardinal parameter-type model for growth of pseudomonads in milk (Martinez-Rios et al...... parameters and their interactive effects. It was successfully validated using 319growth rates (μmax -values) for psychrotolerant pseudomonads in seafood and meat products. These data from literature (n=291) or own experiments (n=28) resulted in bias and accuracy factor values of 1.14 and 1.28, respectively......, when observed and predicted μmax -values were compared. Thus, on average μmax -values for seafood and meat products were overestimated by 14%. Additionally, the reference growth rate parameter μref25˚C was calibrated by fitting the model to 21 μmax -values in vegetable products. This resulted in a μref...

  19. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  20. A DYNAMIC-SYSTEMS MODEL OF COGNITIVE AND LANGUAGE GROWTH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VANGEERT, P

    In the first part of the article, a conceptual framework is sketched to define cognitive growth, including language growth, as a process of growth under limited resources. Important concepts are the process, level, and rate of growth; minimal structural growth level; carrying capacity and unutilized

  1. Stochastic contribution to the growth factor in the LCDM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, A. L.B.; Andrade, A. P.A.; Letelier, P. S.

    2009-01-01

    We study the effect of noise on the evolution of the growth factor of density perturbations in the context of the LCDM model. Stochasticity is introduced as a Wiener process amplified by an intensity parameter alpha. By comparing the evolution of deterministic and stochastic cases for different values of alpha we estimate the intensity level necessary to make noise relevant for cosmological tests based on large-scale structure data. Our results indicate that the presence of random forces underlying the fluid description can lead to significant deviations from the nonstochastic solution at late times for alpha>0.001.

  2. Macroeconomic Preconditions of the Realization of a New Growth Model

    OpenAIRE

    Drobyshevsky, Sergey; Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey

    2013-01-01

    The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the budgetary policy we consider the advantages and drawbacks of a "New Budget Rule", which is based on the long-term average price of oil. In the monetary sphere, we vote for a policy of transition to infla...

  3. Analysis of a Free Boundary Problem Modeling Tumor Growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shang Bin CUI

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we study a free boundary problem arising from the modeling of tumor growth. The problem comprises two unknown functions: R = R(t), the radius of the tumor, and u = u(r, t), the concentration of nutrient in the tumor. The function u satisfies a nonlinear reaction diffusion equation in the region 0 < r < R(t), t > 0, and the function R satisfies a nonlinear integrodifferential equation containing u. Under some general conditions, we establish global existence of transient solutions, unique existence of a stationary solution, and convergence of transient solutions toward the stationary solution as t →∞.

  4. Analysis of a mathematical model describing necrotic tumor growth

    CERN Document Server

    Escher, Joachim; Matioc, Bogdan-Vasile

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study a model describing the growth of necrotic tumors in different regimes of vascularisation. The tumor consists of a necrotic core of death cells and a surrounding nonnecrotic shell. The corresponding mathematical formulation is a moving boundary problem where both boundaries delimiting the nonnecrotic shell are allowed to evolve in time.We determine all radially symmetric stationary solutions of the problem and reduce the moving boundary problem into a nonlinear evolution. Parabolic theory provides us the perfect context in order to show local well-posed of the problem for small initial data.

  5. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2016-08-05

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks to maximize his/her utility by taking into account statistical data about the whole population. The individual actions drive the evolution of the players, and a market-clearing condition determines the relative price of capital and consumer goods. We study the existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies of the agents and develop numerical methods to compute these strategies and the equilibrium price.

  6. Entropy-growth-based model of emotionally charged online dialogues

    CERN Document Server

    Sienkiewicz, Julian; Paltoglou, Georgios; Holyst, Janusz A

    2012-01-01

    We analyze emotionally annotated massive data from IRC (Internet Relay Chat) and model the dialogues between its participants by assuming that the driving force for the discussion is the entropy growth of emotional probability distribution. This process is claimed to be correlated to the emergence of the power-law distribution of the discussion lengths observed in the dialogues. We perform numerical simulations based on the noticed phenomenon obtaining a good agreement with the real data. Finally, we propose a method to artificially prolong the duration of the discussion that relies on the entropy of emotional probability distribution.

  7. Growth model of lantern-like amorphous silicon oxide nanowires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ping; Zou, Xingquan; Chi, Lingfei; Li, Qiang; Xiao, Tan

    2007-03-01

    Silicon oxide nanowire assemblies with lantern-like morphology were synthesized by thermal evaporation of the mixed powder of SnO2 and active carbon at 1000 °C and using the silicon wafer as substrate and source. The nano-lanterns were characterized by a scanning electron microscope (SEM), high-resolution transmission electron microscope (HRTEM), energy-dispersive spectroscope (EDS) and selective area electron diffraction (SAED). The results show that the nano-lantern has symmetrical morphology, with one end connecting with the silicon wafer and the other end being the tin ball. The diameter of the nano-lantern is about 1.5-3.0 µm. Arc silicon oxide nanowire assemblies between the two ends have diameters ranging from 70 to 150 nm. One single catalyst tin ball catalyzes more than one amorphous nanowires' growth. In addition, the growth mechanism of the nano-lantern is discussed and a growth model is proposed. The multi-nucleation sites round the Sn droplet's perimeter are responsible for the formation of many SiOx nanowires. The growing direction of the nanowires is not in the same direction of the movement of the catalyst tin ball, resulting in the bending of the nanowires and forming the lantern-like silicon oxide morphology. The controllable synthesis of the lantern-like silicon oxide nanostructure may have potential applications in the photoelectronic devices field.

  8. Growth model of lantern-like amorphous silicon oxide nanowires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Ping; Zou Xingquan; Chi Lingfei; Li Qiang; Xiao Tan [Department of Physics, Shantou University, Shantou 515063 (China)

    2007-03-28

    Silicon oxide nanowire assemblies with lantern-like morphology were synthesized by thermal evaporation of the mixed powder of SnO{sub 2} and active carbon at 1000 deg. C and using the silicon wafer as substrate and source. The nano-lanterns were characterized by a scanning electron microscope (SEM), high-resolution transmission electron microscope (HRTEM), energy-dispersive spectroscope (EDS) and selective area electron diffraction (SAED). The results show that the nano-lantern has symmetrical morphology, with one end connecting with the silicon wafer and the other end being the tin ball. The diameter of the nano-lantern is about 1.5-3.0 {mu}m. Arc silicon oxide nanowire assemblies between the two ends have diameters ranging from 70 to 150 nm. One single catalyst tin ball catalyzes more than one amorphous nanowires' growth. In addition, the growth mechanism of the nano-lantern is discussed and a growth model is proposed. The multi-nucleation sites round the Sn droplet's perimeter are responsible for the formation of many SiO{sub x} nanowires. The growing direction of the nanowires is not in the same direction of the movement of the catalyst tin ball, resulting in the bending of the nanowires and forming the lantern-like silicon oxide morphology. The controllable synthesis of the lantern-like silicon oxide nanostructure may have potential applications in the photoelectronic devices field.

  9. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data.

  10. Applicability of bacterial growth models in spreadable processed cheese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Weiss

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background. Food spoilage is a process in which the quality parameters decrease and products are no longer edible. This is a cumulative effect of bacteria growth and their metabolite production, which is a factor limiting shelf life. Thus, the aim of the study was to evaluate whether microbiological growth models for total viable count (TVC and Clostridium strain bacteria are reliable tools for prediction of microbiological changes in spreadable processed cheese. Material and methods. Investigations were conducted for two types of bacteria: TVC and Clostridium in following temperature: 8°C, 20°C and 30°C. A total number of aerobic bacteria was determined based on standard PN-EN ISO 4833:2004 and Clostridium was detected by using microbiological procedure for sulphite-reducing anaerobic spore-bacteria with a selective nourishment. During the analysis nonlinear regression and Baranyi and Roberts primary model were used. Results. For temperatures 20°C and 30°C, Baranyi and Roberts model, for total viable count showed determination coeffi cient of 70%. The models prepared for Clostridium, in these temperatures, showed much lower R2, respectively 25% and 30%. At the abovementioned temperatures also the expiration of product shelf life was much shorter and amounted 70 days at 20°C and 7 days at 30°C. For both types of bacteria incubated at 8°C the numbers of bacteria decrease until the expiration of product shelf life. Conclusions. Models used in the analyses, Baranyi and Roberts and nonlinear regression, poorly matched the experimental data, hence they are not reliable tools. Nevertheless, they gave information about dynamic of microbiological changes in spreadable processed cheese.

  11. Determining of migraine prognosis using latent growth mixture models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bahar Tasdelen; Aynur Ozge; Hakan Kaleagasi; Semra Erdogan; Tufan Mengi

    2011-01-01

    Background This paper presents a retrospective study to classify patients into subtypes of the treatment according to baseline and longitudinally observed values considering heterogenity in migraine prognosis. In the classical prospective clinical studies,participants are classified with respect to baseline status and followed within a certain time period.However,latent growth mixture model is the most suitable method,which considers the population heterogenity and is not affected drop-outs if they are missing at random. Hence,we planned this comprehensive study to identify prognostic factors in migraine.Methods The study data have been based on a 10-year computer-based follow-up data of Mersin University Headache Outpatient Department. The developmental trajectories within subgroups were described for the severity,frequency,and duration of headache separately and the probabilities of each subgroup were estimated by using latent growth mixture models. SAS PROC TRAJ procedures,semiparametric and group-based mixture modeling approach,were applied to define the developmental trajectories.Results While the three-group model for the severity (mild,moderate,severe) and frequency (low,medium,high) of headache appeared to be appropriate,the four-group model for the duration (low,medium,high,extremely high) was more suitable. The severity of headache increased in the patients with nausea,vomiting,photophobia and phonophobia.The frequency of headache was especially related with increasing age and unilateral pain. Nausea and photophobia were also related with headache duration.Conclusions Nausea,vomiting and photophobia were the most significant factors to identify developmental trajectories.The remission time was not the same for the severity,frequency,and duration of headache.

  12. Mathematical Model for Growth of Inclusion in Deoxidization on the Basis of Unreacted Core Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Su-zhou; ZHANG Jiong-ming

    2008-01-01

    Controlling inclusion composition,from the point of view of thermodynamics,only explains the probability and limit of reaction.However,kinetics makes the nucleation and the velocity of growth of inclusions clear,and these kinetic factors arc very important to the quality of slab.The basic kinetic theory of unreacted core model was used to build the mathematical model for the growth of inclusions and the concerned software was developed through Visual Basic 6.0.The time that different radius inclusions attain saturation was calculated to determine the controlling step of reaction between steel and inclusions.The time for the growth of inclusion obtained from the model was in good agreement with the data measured by Japanese Okuyama G,which indicated that the model is reasonable.

  13. Population ageing, policy reforms and economic growth in Japan: a computable OLG model with endogenous growth mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Manabu Shimasawa

    2007-01-01

    We have developed a computable endogenous growth OLG model generated by the accumulation of human capital. To study whether policy reform against aging make any quantitative impacts through human capital formation on the Japanese economy and whether it has long-run effect, we simulate two policy change scenarios and compare the results of those with endogenous growth to those with exogenous growth. The results are very encouraging: (i) policy changes promote human capital accumulation and thu...

  14. The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

  15. Modelling population growth with delayed nonlocal reaction in 2-dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Dong; Wu, Jianhong; Zhang, Fan

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the population growth of a single species living in a two-dimensional spatial domain. New reaction-difusion equation models with delayed nonlocal reaction are developed in two-dimensional bounded domains combining diferent boundary conditions. The important feature of the models is the reflection of the joint efect of the difusion dynamics and the nonlocal maturation delayed efect. We consider and ana- lyze numerical solutions of the mature population dynamics with some wellknown birth functions. In particular, we observe and study the occurrences of asymptotically stable steady state solutions and periodic waves for the two-dimensional problems with nonlocal delayed reaction. We also investigate numerically the efects of various parameters on the period, the peak and the shape of the periodic wave as well as the shape of the asymptotically stable steady state solution.

  16. Physical modelling of Czochralski crystal growth in horizontal magnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grants, Ilmārs; Pal, Josef; Gerbeth, Gunter

    2017-07-01

    This study addresses experimentally the heat transfer, the temperature azimuthal non-uniformity and the onset of oscillations in a low temperature physical model of a medium-sized Czochralski crystal growth process with a strong horizontal magnetic field (HMF). It is observed that under certain conditions the integral heat flux may decrease with increasing magnetic field strength at the same time as the flow velocity increases. The azimuthal non-uniformity of the temperature field in the melt near the crystal model rim is only little influenced by its rotation rate outside of a narrow range where the centrifugal force balances the buoyant one. The flow oscillation onset has been observed for two values of the HMF strength. Conditions of this onset are little influenced by the crystal rotation. The critical temperature difference of the oscillation onset considerably exceeds that of the Rayleigh-Bénard (RB) cell in a strong HMF.

  17. Gene duplication models for directed networks with limits on growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enemark, Jakob; Sneppen, Kim

    2007-11-01

    Background: Duplication of genes is important for evolution of molecular networks. Many authors have therefore considered gene duplication as a driving force in shaping the topology of molecular networks. In particular it has been noted that growth via duplication would act as an implicit means of preferential attachment, and thereby provide the observed broad degree distributions of molecular networks. Results: We extend current models of gene duplication and rewiring by including directions and the fact that molecular networks are not a result of unidirectional growth. We introduce upstream sites and downstream shapes to quantify potential links during duplication and rewiring. We find that this in itself generates the observed scaling of transcription factors for genome sites in prokaryotes. The dynamical model can generate a scale-free degree distribution, p(k)\\propto 1/k^{\\gamma } , with exponent γ = 1 in the non-growing case, and with γ>1 when the network is growing. Conclusions: We find that duplication of genes followed by substantial recombination of upstream regions could generate features of genetic regulatory networks. Our steady state degree distribution is however too broad to be consistent with data, thereby suggesting that selective pruning acts as a main additional constraint on duplicated genes. Our analysis shows that gene duplication can only be a main cause for the observed broad degree distributions if there are also substantial recombinations between upstream regions of genes.

  18. A model of bubble growth leading to xylem conduit embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hölttä, T; Vesala, T; Nikinmaa, E

    2007-11-01

    The dynamics of a gas bubble inside a water conduit after a cavitation event was modeled. A distinction was made between a typical angiosperm conduit with a homogeneous pit membrane and a typical gymnosperm conduit with a torus-margo pit membrane structure. For conduits with torus-margo type pits pit membrane deflection was also modeled and pit aspiration, the displacement of the pit membrane to the low pressure side of the pit chamber, was found to be possible while the emboli was still small. Concurrent with pit aspiration, the high resistance to water flow out of the conduit through the cell walls or aspirated pits will make the embolism process slow. In case of no pit aspiration and always for conduits with homogeneous pit membranes, embolism growth is more rapid but still much slower than bubble growth in bulk water under similar water tension. The time needed for the embolism to fill a whole conduit was found to be dependent on pit and cell wall conductance, conduit radius, xylem water tension, pressure rise in adjacent conduits due to water freed from the embolising conduit, and the rigidity and structure of the pits in the case of margo-torus type pit membrane. The water pressure in the conduit hosting the bubble was found to occur almost immediately after bubble induction inside a conduit, creating a sudden tension release in the conduit, which can be detected by acoustic and ultra-acoustic monitoring of xylem cavitation.

  19. Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-10-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5-10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers.

  20. Modelling spatial patterns of urban growth in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linard, Catherine; Tatem, Andrew J.; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-01-01

    The population of Africa is predicted to double over the next 40 years, driving exceptionally high urban expansion rates that will induce significant socio-economic, environmental and health changes. In order to prepare for these changes, it is important to better understand urban growth dynamics in Africa and better predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions. Previous work on urban expansion has been carried out at the city level or at the global level with a relatively coarse 5–10 km resolution. The main objective of the present paper was to develop a modelling approach at an intermediate scale in order to identify factors that influence spatial patterns of urban expansion in Africa. Boosted Regression Tree models were developed to predict the spatial pattern of rural-urban conversions in every large African city. Urban change data between circa 1990 and circa 2000 available for 20 large cities across Africa were used as training data. Results showed that the urban land in a 1 km neighbourhood and the accessibility to the city centre were the most influential variables. Results obtained were generally more accurate than results obtained using a distance-based urban expansion model and showed that the spatial pattern of small, compact and fast growing cities were easier to simulate than cities with lower population densities and a lower growth rate. The simulation method developed here will allow the production of spatially detailed urban expansion forecasts for 2020 and 2025 for Africa, data that are increasingly required by global change modellers. PMID:25152552

  1. Matrix models and stochastic growth in Donaldson-Thomas theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szabo, Richard J. [Department of Mathematics, Heriot-Watt University, Colin Maclaurin Building, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, United Kingdom and Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Tierz, Miguel [Grupo de Fisica Matematica, Complexo Interdisciplinar da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Prof. Gama Pinto, 2, PT-1649-003 Lisboa (Portugal); Departamento de Analisis Matematico, Facultad de Ciencias Matematicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Plaza de Ciencias 3, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2012-10-15

    We show that the partition functions which enumerate Donaldson-Thomas invariants of local toric Calabi-Yau threefolds without compact divisors can be expressed in terms of specializations of the Schur measure. We also discuss the relevance of the Hall-Littlewood and Jack measures in the context of BPS state counting and study the partition functions at arbitrary points of the Kaehler moduli space. This rewriting in terms of symmetric functions leads to a unitary one-matrix model representation for Donaldson-Thomas theory. We describe explicitly how this result is related to the unitary matrix model description of Chern-Simons gauge theory. This representation is used to show that the generating functions for Donaldson-Thomas invariants are related to tau-functions of the integrable Toda and Toeplitz lattice hierarchies. The matrix model also leads to an interpretation of Donaldson-Thomas theory in terms of non-intersecting paths in the lock-step model of vicious walkers. We further show that these generating functions can be interpreted as normalization constants of a corner growth/last-passage stochastic model.

  2. Matrix models and stochastic growth in Donaldson-Thomas theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabo, Richard J.; Tierz, Miguel

    2012-10-01

    We show that the partition functions which enumerate Donaldson-Thomas invariants of local toric Calabi-Yau threefolds without compact divisors can be expressed in terms of specializations of the Schur measure. We also discuss the relevance of the Hall-Littlewood and Jack measures in the context of BPS state counting and study the partition functions at arbitrary points of the Kähler moduli space. This rewriting in terms of symmetric functions leads to a unitary one-matrix model representation for Donaldson-Thomas theory. We describe explicitly how this result is related to the unitary matrix model description of Chern-Simons gauge theory. This representation is used to show that the generating functions for Donaldson-Thomas invariants are related to tau-functions of the integrable Toda and Toeplitz lattice hierarchies. The matrix model also leads to an interpretation of Donaldson-Thomas theory in terms of non-intersecting paths in the lock-step model of vicious walkers. We further show that these generating functions can be interpreted as normalization constants of a corner growth/last-passage stochastic model.

  3. An Examination of Growth in Vocabulary and Phonological Awareness in Early Childhood: An Individual Growth Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassano, Christina Marie

    2013-01-01

    The present study used individual growth modeling to examine the role of specific forms (i.e., receptive, expressive, and definitional vocabulary and grammatical skill) and levels of oral vocabulary skill (i.e., 25th, 50th, or 75th percentile) in phonological awareness growth during the preschool and kindergarten years. Sixty-one,…

  4. Fractional differential equations based modeling of microbial survival and growth curves: model development and experimental validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, A; Takhar, P S; Smith, D M; Mann, J E; Brashears, M M

    2008-10-01

    A fractional differential equations (FDEs)-based theory involving 1- and 2-term equations was developed to predict the nonlinear survival and growth curves of foodborne pathogens. It is interesting to note that the solution of 1-term FDE leads to the Weibull model. Nonlinear regression (Gauss-Newton method) was performed to calculate the parameters of the 1-term and 2-term FDEs. The experimental inactivation data of Salmonella cocktail in ground turkey breast, ground turkey thigh, and pork shoulder; and cocktail of Salmonella, E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in ground beef exposed at isothermal cooking conditions of 50 to 66 degrees C were used for validation. To evaluate the performance of 2-term FDE in predicting the growth curves-growth of Salmonella typhimurium, Salmonella Enteritidis, and background flora in ground pork and boneless pork chops; and E. coli O157:H7 in ground beef in the temperature range of 22.2 to 4.4 degrees C were chosen. A program was written in Matlab to predict the model parameters and survival and growth curves. Two-term FDE was more successful in describing the complex shapes of microbial survival and growth curves as compared to the linear and Weibull models. Predicted curves of 2-term FDE had higher magnitudes of R(2) (0.89 to 0.99) and lower magnitudes of root mean square error (0.0182 to 0.5461) for all experimental cases in comparison to the linear and Weibull models. This model was capable of predicting the tails in survival curves, which was not possible using Weibull and linear models. The developed model can be used for other foodborne pathogens in a variety of food products to study the destruction and growth behavior.

  5. Multilevel growth curve models that incorporate a random coefficient model for the level 1 variance function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Harvey; Leckie, George; Charlton, Christopher; Tilling, Kate; Browne, William J

    2017-01-01

    Aim To present a flexible model for repeated measures longitudinal growth data within individuals that allows trends over time to incorporate individual-specific random effects. These may reflect the timing of growth events and characterise within-individual variability which can be modelled as a function of age. Subjects and methods A Bayesian model is developed that includes random effects for the mean growth function, an individual age-alignment random effect and random effects for the within-individual variance function. This model is applied to data on boys' heights from the Edinburgh longitudinal growth study and to repeated weight measurements of a sample of pregnant women in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. Results The mean age at which the growth curves for individual boys are aligned is 11.4 years, corresponding to the mean 'take off' age for pubertal growth. The within-individual variance (standard deviation) is found to decrease from 0.24 cm(2) (0.50 cm) at 9 years for the 'average' boy to 0.07 cm(2) (0.25 cm) at 16 years. Change in weight during pregnancy can be characterised by regression splines with random effects that include a large woman-specific random effect for the within-individual variation, which is also correlated with overall weight and weight gain. Conclusions The proposed model provides a useful extension to existing approaches, allowing considerable flexibility in describing within- and between-individual differences in growth patterns.

  6. Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grajeda, Laura M; Ivanescu, Andrada; Saito, Mayuko; Crainiceanu, Ciprian; Jaganath, Devan; Gilman, Robert H; Crabtree, Jean E; Kelleher, Dermott; Cabrera, Lilia; Cama, Vitaliano; Checkley, William

    2016-01-01

    Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather

  7. Modelling of frost formation and growth on microstuctured surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muntaha, Md. Ali; Haider, Md. Mushfique; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur

    2016-07-01

    Frost formation on heat exchangers is an undesirable phenomenon often encountered in different applications where the cold surface with a temperature below freezing point of water is exposed to humid air. The formation of frost on the heat transfer surface results in an increase in pressure drop and reduction in heat transfer, resulting in a reduction of the system efficiency. Many factors, including the temperature and moisture content of air, cold plate temperature, surface wettability etc., are known to affect frost formation and growth. In our present study, a model for frost growth on rectangular, periodic microgroove surfaces for a range of microgroove dimension (ten to hundreds of micron) is presented. The mathematical model is developed analytically by solving the governing heat and mass transfer equations with appropriate boundary conditions using the EES (Engineering Equation Solver) software. For temperature, a convective boundary condition at frost-air interface and a fixed cold plate surface temperature is used. Instead of considering the saturation or super-saturation models, density gradient at the surface is obtained by considering experimentally-found specified heat flux. The effect of surface wettability is incorporated by considering the distribution of condensed water droplets at the early stage of frost formation. Thickness, density and thermal conductivity of frost layer on the micro-grooved surfaces are found to vary with the dimension of the grooves. The variation of density and thickness of the frost layer on these micro-grooved surfaces under natural convection is numerally determined for a range of plate temperature and air temperature conditions and is compared with experimental results found in the open literature.

  8. Development of a multi-classification neural network model to determine the microbial growth/no growth interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Navarro, Francisco; Valero, Antonio; Hervás-Martínez, César; Gutiérrez, Pedro A; García-Gimeno, Rosa M; Zurera-Cosano, Gonzalo

    2010-07-15

    Boundary models have been recognized as useful tools to predict the ability of microorganisms to grow at limiting conditions. However, at these conditions, microbial behaviour can vary, being difficult to distinguish between growth or no growth. In this paper, the data from the study of Valero et al. [Valero, A., Pérez-Rodríguez, F., Carrasco, E., Fuentes-Alventosa, J.M., García-Gimeno, R.M., Zurera, G., 2009. Modelling the growth boundaries of Staphylococcus aureus: Effect of temperature, pH and water activity. International Journal of Food Microbiology 133 (1-2), 186-194] belonging to growth/no growth conditions of Staphylococcus aureus against temperature, pH and a(w) were divided into three categorical classes: growth (G), growth transition (GT) and no growth (NG). Subsequently, they were modelled by using a Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) in order to create a multi-classification model that was able to predict the probability of belonging at one of the three mentioned classes. The model was developed through an over sampling procedure using a memetic algorithm (MA) in order to balance in part the size of the classes and to improve the accuracy of the classifier. The multi-classification model, named Smote Memetic Radial Basis Function (SMRBF) provided a quite good adjustment to data observed, being able to correctly classify the 86.30% of training data and the 82.26% of generalization data for the three observed classes in the best model. Besides, the high number of replicates per condition tested (n=30) produced a smooth transition between growth and no growth. At the most stringent conditions, the probability of belonging to class GT was higher, thus justifying the inclusion of the class in the new model. The SMRBF model presented in this study can be used to better define microbial growth/no growth interface and the variability associated to these conditions so as to apply this knowledge to a food safety in a decision-making process.

  9. Formation of algae growth constitutive relations for improved algae modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gharagozloo, Patricia E.; Drewry, Jessica Louise.

    2013-01-01

    This SAND report summarizes research conducted as a part of a two year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project to improve our abilities to model algal cultivation. Algae-based biofuels have generated much excitement due to their potentially large oil yield from relatively small land use and without interfering with the food or water supply. Algae mitigate atmospheric CO2 through metabolism. Efficient production of algal biofuels could reduce dependence on foreign oil by providing a domestic renewable energy source. Important factors controlling algal productivity include temperature, nutrient concentrations, salinity, pH, and the light-to-biomass conversion rate. Computational models allow for inexpensive predictions of algae growth kinetics in these non-ideal conditions for various bioreactor sizes and geometries without the need for multiple expensive measurement setups. However, these models need to be calibrated for each algal strain. In this work, we conduct a parametric study of key marine algae strains and apply the findings to a computational model.

  10. Toward a quantitative model of metamorphic nucleation and growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidies, F.; Pattison, D. R. M.; de Capitani, C.

    2011-11-01

    The formation of metamorphic garnet during isobaric heating is simulated on the basis of the classical nucleation and reaction rate theories and Gibbs free energy dissipation in a multi-component model system. The relative influences are studied of interfacial energy, chemical mobility at the surface of garnet clusters, heating rate and pressure on interface-controlled garnet nucleation and growth kinetics. It is found that the interfacial energy controls the departure from equilibrium required to nucleate garnet if attachment and detachment processes at the surface of garnet limit the overall crystallization rate. The interfacial energy for nucleation of garnet in a metapelite of the aureole of the Nelson Batholith, BC, is estimated to range between 0.03 and 0.3 J/m2 at a pressure of ca. 3,500 bar. This corresponds to a thermal overstep of the garnet-forming reaction of ca. 30°C. The influence of the heating rate on thermal overstepping is negligible. A significant feedback is predicted between chemical fractionation associated with garnet formation and the kinetics of nucleation and crystal growth of garnet giving rise to its lognormal—shaped crystal size distribution.

  11. Linear Growth of Structure in the Symmetron Model

    CERN Document Server

    Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Li, Baojiu; Schmauch, Benoit; Shaw, Douglas J

    2011-01-01

    In the symmetron mechanism, the fifth force mediated by a coupled scalar field (the symmetron) is suppressed in high-density regions due to the restoration of symmetry in the symmetron potential. In this paper we study the background cosmology and large scale structure formation in the linear perturbation regime of the symmetron model. Analytic solutions to the symmetron in the cosmological background are found, which agree well with numerical results. We discuss the effect of the symmetron perturbation on the growth of matter perturbation, in particular the implications of the brief period of tachyonic instability caused by the negative mass squared of the symmetron during symmetry breaking. Our analysis and numerical results show that this instability has only very small effects on the growth of structures on sub-horizon scales, and even at horizon scales its influence is not as drastic as naively expected. The symmetron fifth force in the non-tachyonic regime does affect the formation of structure in a non...

  12. Genomic Heritability of Bovine Growth Using a Mixed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihye Ryu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated heritability for bovine growth estimated with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP information obtained from a DNA microarray chip. Three hundred sixty seven Korean cattle were genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip, and 39,112 SNPs of 364 animals filtered by quality assurance were analyzed to estimate heritability of body weights at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 months of age. Restricted maximum likelihood estimate of heritability was obtained using covariance structure of genomic relationships among animals in a mixed model framework. Heritability estimates ranged from 0.58 to 0.76 for body weights at different ages. The heritability estimates using genomic information in this study were larger than those which had been estimated previously using pedigree information. The results revealed a trend that the heritability for body weight increased at a younger age (6 months. This suggests an early genetic evaluation for bovine growth using genomic information to increase genetic merits of animals.

  13. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  14. Modelling and predicting growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand;

    Mathematical models were developed and evaluated for growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The mathematical models include the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl, lactic acid and sorbic acid. A simplified cardinal parameter growth model...... was developed based on growth in broth. Subsequently, the reference growth rate parameter (μref at 25 °C) was fitted to a total of 35 growth rates from cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. Growth rate models for milk and cottage cheese were evaluated by comparison with data from literature and new...... experiments. Growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in heat-treated milk resulted in a bias factor (Bf) of 1.08 and an accuracy factor (Af) of 1.32, whereas the calibrated model for growth rates in cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing and in raw milk resulted in Bf of 1.08 and Af of 1...

  15. Modelling and predicting growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand;

    experiments. Growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in heat-treated milk resulted in a bias factor (Bf) of 1.08 and an accuracy factor (Af) of 1.32, whereas the calibrated model for growth rates in cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing and in raw milk resulted in Bf of 1.08 and Af of 1......Mathematical models were developed and evaluated for growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The mathematical models include the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl, lactic acid and sorbic acid. A simplified cardinal parameter growth model...... was developed based on growth in broth. Subsequently, the reference growth rate parameter (μref at 25 °C) was fitted to a total of 35 growth rates from cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. Growth rate models for milk and cottage cheese were evaluated by comparison with data from literature and new...

  16. Development and validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejlholm, Ole; Dalgaard, Paw

    2013-10-15

    A new and extensive growth and growth boundary model for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was developed and validated for processed and unprocessed products of seafood and meat. The new model was developed by refitting and expanding an existing cardinal parameter model for growth and the growth boundary of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in processed seafood (O. Mejlholm and P. Dalgaard, J. Food Prot. 70. 2485-2497, 2007). Initially, to estimate values for the maximum specific growth rate at the reference temperature of 25 °C (μref) and the theoretical minimum temperature that prevents growth of psychrotolerant LAB (T(min)), the existing LAB model was refitted to data from experiments with seafood and meat products reported not to include nitrite or any of the four organic acids evaluated in the present study. Next, dimensionless terms modelling the antimicrobial effect of nitrite, and acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids on growth of Lactobacillus sakei were added to the refitted model, together with minimum inhibitory concentrations determined for the five environmental parameters. The new model including the effect of 12 environmental parameters, as well as their interactive effects, was successfully validated using 229 growth rates (μ(max) values) for psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat products. Average bias and accuracy factor values of 1.08 and 1.27, respectively, were obtained when observed and predicted μ(max) values of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. were compared. Thus, on average μ(max) values were only overestimated by 8%. The performance of the new model was equally good for seafood and meat products, and the importance of including the effect of acetic, benzoic, citric and sorbic acids and to a lesser extent nitrite in order to accurately predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. was clearly demonstrated. The new model can be used to predict growth of psychrotolerant Lactobacillus spp. in seafood and meat

  17. Growth of transition metals on cerium tungstate model catalyst layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skála, T.; Tsud, N.; Stetsovych, V.; Mysliveček, J.; Matolín, V.

    2016-10-01

    Two model catalytic metal/oxide systems were investigated by photoelectron spectroscopy and scanning tunneling microscopy. The mixed-oxide support was a cerium tungstate epitaxial thin layer grown in situ on the W(1 1 0) single crystal. Active particles consisted of palladium and platinum 3D islands deposited on the tungstate surface at 300 K. Both metals were found to interact weakly with the oxide support and the original chemical state of both support and metals was mostly preserved. Electronic and morphological changes are discussed during the metal growth and after post-annealing at temperatures up to 700 K. Partial transition-metal coalescence and self-cleaning from the CO and carbon impurities were observed.

  18. Growth and Division in a Dynamic Protocell Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Villani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new model of growing and dividing protocells is described, whose main features are (i a lipid container that grows according to the composition of the molecular milieu (ii a set of “genetic memory molecules” (GMMs that undergo catalytic reactions in the internal aqueous phase and (iii a set of stochastic kinetic equations for the GMMs. The mass exchange between the external environment and the internal phase is described by simulating a semipermeable membrane and a flow driven by the differences in chemical potentials, thereby avoiding to resort to sometimes misleading simplifications, e.g., that of a flow reactor. Under simple assumptions, it is shown that synchronization takes place between the rate of replication of the GMMs and that of the container, provided that the set of reactions hosts a so-called RAF (Reflexive Autocatalytic, Food-generated set whose influence on synchronization is hereafter discussed. It is also shown that a slight modification of the basic model that takes into account a rate-limiting term, makes possible the growth of novelties, allowing in such a way suitable evolution: so the model represents an effective basis for understanding the main abstract properties of populations of protocells.

  19. Overview: early history of crop growth and photosynthesis modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sharkawy, Mabrouk A

    2011-02-01

    As in industrial and engineering systems, there is a need to quantitatively study and analyze the many constituents of complex natural biological systems as well as agro-ecosystems via research-based mechanistic modeling. This objective is normally addressed by developing mathematically built descriptions of multilevel biological processes to provide biologists a means to integrate quantitatively experimental research findings that might lead to a better understanding of the whole systems and their interactions with surrounding environments. Aided with the power of computational capacities associated with computer technology then available, pioneering cropping systems simulations took place in the second half of the 20th century by several research groups across continents. This overview summarizes that initial pioneering effort made to simulate plant growth and photosynthesis of crop canopies, focusing on the discovery of gaps that exist in the current scientific knowledge. Examples are given for those gaps where experimental research was needed to improve the validity and application of the constructed models, so that their benefit to mankind was enhanced. Such research necessitates close collaboration among experimentalists and model builders while adopting a multidisciplinary/inter-institutional approach.

  20. Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klump, R.; Prüfer, P.

    2006-01-01

    Pro-Poor Growth (PPG) is the vision of combining high growth rates with poverty reduction.Due to the myriad of possible determinants of growth and poverty a unique theoretical model for guiding empirical work on PPG is absent, though.Bayesian Model Averaging is a statistically robust framework for t

  1. Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klump, R.; Prüfer, P.

    2006-01-01

    Pro-Poor Growth (PPG) is the vision of combining high growth rates with poverty reduction.Due to the myriad of possible determinants of growth and poverty a unique theoretical model for guiding empirical work on PPG is absent, though.Bayesian Model Averaging is a statistically robust framework for

  2. Modeling Circumgalactic Gas During the Peak Epoch of Galaxy Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dave, Romeel

    During the peak of cosmic star formation at z=1-4, galaxy growth is increasingly believed to be modulated by large-scale inflows and outflows of baryons that intimately connect galaxies to their surrounding circumgalactic medium (CGM). Unfortunately, direct observational signatures of these baryon cycling processes are elusive and fragmented, owing to the diffuse and multi- phase nature of the CGM. This proposal aims to use advanced multi-scale cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to investigate how inflows and outflows within circumgalactic gas are manifested in present and future observables, and how those observables in turn constrain the physical processes driving galaxy evolution. The simulation methodology includes ``random" cosmological runs, ``zoom" runs of individual halos, and radiative transfer to better model the ionization conditions. We will focus on absorption and emission signatures in HI and metal lines using common rest-UV and rest-optical tracers. Key questions include: How do metal absorbers trace the enrichment and ionization conditions within circumgalactic gas? How much absorption arises from inflow versus outflow, and what are the characteristic absorption, emission, and/or kinematic signatures of each? What emission lines from CGM gas are predicted to be observable, and how does the combination of emission and absorption constrain CGM properties? What are the roles of metallicity, ionization, and large-scale structure in establishing the correlations of metal absorbers and galaxies on CGM scales? How do all these CGM properties relate to host galaxy properties such as mass, and how do they vary with outflow model? The overall goal is to develop a comprehensive hierarchical-based framework for assembling various observations of circumgalactic gas into a unified scenario for how inflows and outflows govern the growth of galaxies.

  3. Mathematical modelling of the growth of human fetus anatomical structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudek, Krzysztof; Kędzia, Wojciech; Kędzia, Emilia; Kędzia, Alicja; Derkowski, Wojciech

    2016-07-08

    The goal of this study was to present a procedure that would enable mathematical analysis of the increase of linear sizes of human anatomical structures, estimate mathematical model parameters and evaluate their adequacy. Section material consisted of 67 foetuses-rectus abdominis muscle and 75 foetuses- biceps femoris muscle. The following methods were incorporated to the study: preparation and anthropologic methods, image digital acquisition, Image J computer system measurements and statistical analysis method. We used an anthropologic method based on age determination with the use of crown-rump length-CRL (V-TUB) by Scammon and Calkins. The choice of mathematical function should be based on a real course of the curve presenting growth of anatomical structure linear size Ύ in subsequent weeks t of pregnancy. Size changes can be described with a segmental-linear model or one-function model with accuracy adequate enough for clinical purposes. The interdependence of size-age is described with many functions. However, the following functions are most often considered: linear, polynomial, spline, logarithmic, power, exponential, power-exponential, log-logistic I and II, Gompertz's I and II and von Bertalanffy's function. With the use of the procedures described above, mathematical models parameters were assessed for V-PL (the total length of body) and CRL body length increases, rectus abdominis total length h, its segments hI, hII, hIII, hIV, as well as biceps femoris length and width of long head (LHL and LHW) and of short head (SHL and SHW). The best adjustments to measurement results were observed in the exponential and Gompertz's models.

  4. A statistical model of diurnal variation in human growth hormone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klerman, Elizabeth B.; Adler, Gail K.; Jin, Moonsoo; Maliszewski, Anne M.; Brown, Emery N.

    2003-01-01

    The diurnal pattern of growth hormone (GH) serum levels depends on the frequency and amplitude of GH secretory events, the kinetics of GH infusion into and clearance from the circulation, and the feedback of GH on its secretion. We present a two-dimensional linear differential equation model based on these physiological principles to describe GH diurnal patterns. The model characterizes the onset times of the secretory events, the secretory event amplitudes, as well as the infusion, clearance, and feedback half-lives of GH. We illustrate the model by using maximum likelihood methods to fit it to GH measurements collected in 12 normal, healthy women during 8 h of scheduled sleep and a 16-h circadian constant-routine protocol. We assess the importance of the model components by using parameter standard error estimates and Akaike's Information Criterion. During sleep, both the median infusion and clearance half-life estimates were 13.8 min, and the median number of secretory events was 2. During the constant routine, the median infusion half-life estimate was 12.6 min, the median clearance half-life estimate was 11.7 min, and the median number of secretory events was 5. The infusion and clearance half-life estimates and the number of secretory events are consistent with current published reports. Our model gave an excellent fit to each GH data series. Our analysis paradigm suggests an approach to decomposing GH diurnal patterns that can be used to characterize the physiological properties of this hormone under normal and pathological conditions.

  5. A Finite Element Model for Mixed Porohyperelasticity with Transport, Swelling, and Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Kuhl, Ellen; Simon, Bruce R; Vande Geest, Jonathan P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this manuscript is to establish a unified theory of porohyperelasticity with transport and growth and to demonstrate the capability of this theory using a finite element model developed in MATLAB. We combine the theories of volumetric growth and mixed porohyperelasticity with transport and swelling (MPHETS) to derive a new method that models growth of biological soft tissues. The conservation equations and constitutive equations are developed for both solid-only growth and solid/fluid growth. An axisymmetric finite element framework is introduced for the new theory of growing MPHETS (GMPHETS). To illustrate the capabilities of this model, several example finite element test problems are considered using model geometry and material parameters based on experimental data from a porcine coronary artery. Multiple growth laws are considered, including time-driven, concentration-driven, and stress-driven growth. Time-driven growth is compared against an exact analytical solution to validate the model. For concentration-dependent growth, changing the diffusivity (representing a change in drug) fundamentally changes growth behavior. We further demonstrate that for stress-dependent, solid-only growth of an artery, growth of an MPHETS model results in a more uniform hoop stress than growth in a hyperelastic model for the same amount of growth time using the same growth law. This may have implications in the context of developing residual stresses in soft tissues under intraluminal pressure. To our knowledge, this manuscript provides the first full description of an MPHETS model with growth. The developed computational framework can be used in concert with novel in-vitro and in-vivo experimental approaches to identify the governing growth laws for various soft tissues.

  6. Modeling pollen tube growth: feeling the pressure to deliver testifiable predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Jens; Geitmann, Anja

    2011-11-01

    The frequency and amplitude of oscillatory pollen tube growth can be altered by changing the osmotic value of the surrounding medium. This has motivated the proposition that the periodic change in growth velocity is caused by changes in turgor pressure. Using mathematical modeling we recently demonstrated that the oscillatory pollen tube growth does not require turgor to change but that this behavior can be explained with a mechanism that relies on changes in the mechanical properties of the cell wall which in turn are caused by temporal variations in the secretion of cell wall precursors. The model also explains why turgor and growth rate are correlated for oscillatory growth with long growth cycles while they seem uncorrelated for oscillatory growth with short growth cycles. The predictions made by the model are testifiable by experimental data and therefore represent an important step towards understanding the dynamics of the growth behavior in walled cells.

  7. Specification Search for Identifying the Correct Mean Trajectory in Polynomial Latent Growth Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjung; Kwok, Oi-Man; Yoon, Myeongsun; Willson, Victor; Lai, Mark H. C.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the optimal strategy for model specification search under the latent growth modeling (LGM) framework, specifically on searching for the correct polynomial mean or average growth model when there is no a priori hypothesized model in the absence of theory. In this simulation study, the effectiveness of different starting…

  8. The simplest model of galaxy formation I: A formation history model of galaxy stellar mass growth

    CERN Document Server

    Mutch, Simon J; Poole, Gregory B

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a simple model to self-consistently connect the growth of galaxies to the formation history of their host dark matter halos. Our model is defined by two simple functions: the "baryonic growth function" which controls the rate at which new baryonic material is made available for star formation, and the "physics function" which controls the efficiency with which this material is converted into stars. Using simple, phenomenologically motivated forms for both functions that depend only on a single halo property, we demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the z=0 red and blue stellar mass functions. Furthermore, by adding redshift as a second input variable to the physics function we show that the reproduction of the global stellar mass function out to z=3 is improved. We conclude by discussing the general utility of our new model, highlighting its usefulness for creating mock galaxy samples which have a number of key advantages over those generated by other techniques.

  9. Forest evaporation models: Relationships between stand growth and evaporation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Maitre, David C

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between forest stand structure, growth and evaporation were analysed to determine whether forest evaporation can be estimated from stand growth data. This approach permits rapid assessment of the potential impacts of afforestation...

  10. Using Bayesian statistics for modeling PTSD through Latent Growth Mixture Modeling : implementation and discussion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens; van Loey, Nancy; Sijbrandij, Marit

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: After traumatic events, such as disaster, war trauma, and injuries including burns (which is the focus here), the risk to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is approximately 10% (Breslau & Davis, 1992). Latent Growth Mixture Modeling can be used to classify individuals into dis

  11. From Solow Model to endogenous economic growth – Romania’s reinsertion into civilization?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinu MARIN

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the determinants of growth in GDP per capita in industrialized countries and the lessons for the Romanian economy. How can Romanian economy grow faster? The neoclassical model show that the important determinants of growth are technical progress, increased labor supply and capital accumulation. The endogenous growth theory considers that the inventions of new technology, investing in human capital are the principal factors which fueled long run growth. How can the Romanian economy obtain a continued growth process?

  12. Estimating growth of SMES using a logit model: Evidence from manufacturing companies in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amith Vikram Megaravalli

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an effort has been put to develop a model for estimating growth based on logit re-gression (logit and implemented the model to Italian manufacturing companies. Our data set consists of 8232 SMEs of Italy. To estimate the growth of the firm an innovative approach that considers annual statements issued the year before the accelerated growth has been considered as the effective estimators of firm growth. The result of the logit showed that return on asset, log (cash flow and log (Inventory positively affect in estimating the growth of the high growth firm whereas working capital turnover times negatively affects in estimating the growth of the firm. The discriminant power of the model using Receiver Operating Characteristics curve shows 72.35%, which means the model is fair in terms of estimating the growth.

  13. Cluster Dynamics Modeling with Bubble Nucleation, Growth and Coalescence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Almeida, Valmor F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Blondel, Sophie [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Bernholdt, David E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wirth, Brian D. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2017-06-01

    The topic of this communication pertains to defect formation in irradiated solids such as plasma-facing tungsten submitted to helium implantation in fusion reactor com- ponents, and nuclear fuel (metal and oxides) submitted to volatile ssion product generation in nuclear reactors. The purpose of this progress report is to describe ef- forts towards addressing the prediction of long-time evolution of defects via continuum cluster dynamics simulation. The di culties are twofold. First, realistic, long-time dynamics in reactor conditions leads to a non-dilute di usion regime which is not accommodated by the prevailing dilute, stressless cluster dynamics theory. Second, long-time dynamics calls for a large set of species (ideally an in nite set) to capture all possible emerging defects, and this represents a computational bottleneck. Extensions beyond the dilute limit is a signi cant undertaking since no model has been advanced to extend cluster dynamics to non-dilute, deformable conditions. Here our proposed approach to model the non-dilute limit is to monitor the appearance of a spatially localized void volume fraction in the solid matrix with a bell shape pro le and insert an explicit geometrical bubble onto the support of the bell function. The newly cre- ated internal moving boundary provides the means to account for the interfacial ux of mobile species into the bubble, and the growth of bubbles allows for coalescence phenomena which captures highly non-dilute interactions. We present a preliminary interfacial kinematic model with associated interfacial di usion transport to follow the evolution of the bubble in any number of spatial dimensions and any number of bubbles, which can be further extended to include a deformation theory. Finally we comment on a computational front-tracking method to be used in conjunction with conventional cluster dynamics simulations in the non-dilute model proposed.

  14. Comparison of Primary Models to Predict Microbial Growth by the Plate Count and Absorbance Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla, María-Leonor; Oltra, Sandra; Esteban, María-Dolores; Andreu, Santiago; Palop, Alfredo

    2015-01-01

    The selection of a primary model to describe microbial growth in predictive food microbiology often appears to be subjective. The objective of this research was to check the performance of different mathematical models in predicting growth parameters, both by absorbance and plate count methods. For this purpose, growth curves of three different microorganisms (Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes, and Escherichia coli) grown under the same conditions, but with different initial concentrations each, were analysed. When measuring the microbial growth of each microorganism by optical density, almost all models provided quite high goodness of fit (r(2) > 0.93) for all growth curves. The growth rate remained approximately constant for all growth curves of each microorganism, when considering one growth model, but differences were found among models. Three-phase linear model provided the lowest variation for growth rate values for all three microorganisms. Baranyi model gave a variation marginally higher, despite a much better overall fitting. When measuring the microbial growth by plate count, similar results were obtained. These results provide insight into predictive microbiology and will help food microbiologists and researchers to choose the proper primary growth predictive model.

  15. Micro/macro solidification modeling of columnar eutectic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judson, Ward Michael

    2000-11-01

    A general multidimensional model of alloy solidification is presented in which a velocity-dependent freezing temperature is coupled with the macroscale energy equation. The velocity dependence of the freezing temperature ( Tf˜v ) results from the microscale species diffusion for microstructures with coupled eutectic growth. At solidification rates ( ˜ 1--10 mm/s) that are representative of gravity permanent mold and die casting processes, consideration of the nonequilibrium conditions at the interface affects the prediction of the macroscale thermal field. Near-eutectic alloys freeze with a macroscopically discrete solid-liquid interface at a temperature below the equilibrium eutectic temperature. The model is illustrated with unidirectional solidification of a near-eutectic alloy in a finite domain and solved numerically with a fixed-grid Galerkin finite element method. The numerical algorithm includes inexpensive steps to compute the interface speed explicitly. By nondimensionalizing the governing equations the effect of coupled eutectic growth on heat transport is clearly identified so that the model's sensitivity to important parameters can be investigated. Additionally, the average eutectic spacing can be determined with the temperature field, rather than post-determination from a standard, uncoupled solution of the energy equation. The eutectic coupling results indicate that the predicted solid-liquid interface location lags behind the uncoupled solution; therefore, decreasing the amount of solid formed, increasing the total solidification time, and increasing the average eutectic spacing. A procedure is also illustrated for computing mechanical properties using experimental correlations and the computed interface velocity history. The effect of the eutectic undercooling is then studied in a square domain and a realistic three-dimensional production casting geometry. In order to address the multidimensional cases, a phase-field formulation is developed

  16. Analysis of a diffuse interface model of multispecies tumor growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Mimi; Feireisl, Eduard; Rocca, Elisabetta; Schimperna, Giulio; Schonbek, Maria E.

    2017-04-01

    We consider a diffuse interface model for tumor growth recently proposed in Chen et al (2014 Int. J. Numer. Methods Biomed. Eng. 30 726-54). In this new approach sharp interfaces are replaced by narrow transition layers arising due to adhesive forces among the cell species. Hence, a continuum thermodynamically consistent model is introduced. The resulting PDE system couples four different types of equations: a Cahn-Hilliard type equation for the tumor cells (which include proliferating and dead cells), a Darcy law for the tissue velocity field, whose divergence may be different from 0 and depend on the other variables, a transport equation for the proliferating (viable) tumor cells, and a quasi-static reaction diffusion equation for the nutrient concentration. We establish existence of weak solutions for the PDE system coupled with suitable initial and boundary conditions. In particular, the proliferation function at the boundary is supposed to be nonnegative on the set where the velocity \\mathbf{u} satisfies \\mathbf{u}\\centerdot ν >0 , where ν is the outer normal to the boundary of the domain.

  17. Tuberous sclerosis--A model for tumour growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Kayleigh M; Dunlop, Elaine A

    2016-04-01

    Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a rare genetic disorder where patients develop benign tumours in several organ systems. Central to TSC pathology is hyper-activation of the mammalian target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) signalling pathway, which is a key controller of cell growth. As a result, TSC model systems are a valuable tool for examining mTORC1-driven cellular processes. The immunosuppressant, rapamycin, is a specific inhibitor of mTORC1 and has shown promise as a therapeutic agent in TSC as well as in malignancy. This review will focus on the cellular processes controlled by mTORC1 and how TSC-deficient cell lines and mouse models have broadened our understanding of the mTORC1 signalling network. It will also discuss how our knowledge of TSC signalling can help us understand sporadic conditions where mTORC1 activity is implicated in disease onset or progression, and the possibility of using rapamycin to treat sporadic disease.

  18. Mathematical models for growth in alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) embryos developing at different incubation temperatures.

    OpenAIRE

    Bardsley, W G; Ackerman, R A; Bukhari, N A; Deeming, D.C.; Ferguson, M. W.

    1995-01-01

    A variety of model-based (growth models) and model-free (cubic splines, exponentials) equations were fitted using weighted-nonlinear least squares regression to embryonic growth data from Alligator mississippiensis eggs incubated at 30 and 33 degrees C. Goodness of fit was estimated using a chi 2 on the sum of squared, weighted residuals, and run and sign tests on the residuals. One of the growth models used (Preece & Baines, 1978) was found to be superior to the classical growth models (expo...

  19. A computational model that predicts reverse growth in response to mechanical unloading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, L C; Genet, M; Acevedo-Bolton, G; Ordovas, K; Guccione, J M; Kuhl, E

    2015-04-01

    Ventricular growth is widely considered to be an important feature in the adverse progression of heart diseases, whereas reverse ventricular growth (or reverse remodeling) is often considered to be a favorable response to clinical intervention. In recent years, a number of theoretical models have been proposed to model the process of ventricular growth while little has been done to model its reverse. Based on the framework of volumetric strain-driven finite growth with a homeostatic equilibrium range for the elastic myofiber stretch, we propose here a reversible growth model capable of describing both ventricular growth and its reversal. We used this model to construct a semi-analytical solution based on an idealized cylindrical tube model, as well as numerical solutions based on a truncated ellipsoidal model and a human left ventricular model that was reconstructed from magnetic resonance images. We show that our model is able to predict key features in the end-diastolic pressure-volume relationship that were observed experimentally and clinically during ventricular growth and reverse growth. We also show that the residual stress fields generated as a result of differential growth in the cylindrical tube model are similar to those in other nonidentical models utilizing the same geometry.

  20. Dynamic model for predicting growth of Salmonella spp. in ground sterile pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velugoti, Padmanabha Reddy; Bohra, Lalit K; Juneja, Vijay K; Huang, Lihan; Wesseling, Audrey L; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan

    2011-06-01

    A predictive model for Salmonella spp. growth in ground pork was developed and validated using kinetic growth data. Salmonella spp. kinetic growth data in ground pork were collected at several isothermal conditions (between 10 and 45°C) and Baranyi model was fitted to describe the growth at each temperature, separately. The maximum growth rates (μ(max)) estimated from the Baranyi model were modeled as a function of temperature using a modified Ratkowsky equation. To estimate bacterial growth under dynamic temperature conditions, the differential form of the Baranyi model, in combination with the modified Ratkowsky equation for rate constants, was solved numerically using fourth order Runge-Kutta method. The dynamic model was validated using five different dynamic temperature profiles (linear cooling, exponential cooling, linear heating, exponential heating, and sinusoidal). Performance measures, root mean squared error, accuracy factor, and bias factor were used to evaluate the model performance, and were observed to be satisfactory. The dynamic model can estimate the growth of Salmonella spp. in pork within a 0.5 log accuracy under both linear and exponential cooling profiles, although the model may overestimate or underestimate at some data points, which were generallySalmonella spp., since low temperature conditions could alter the cell physiology. To obtain an accurate estimate of Salmonella spp. growth using the models reported in this work, it is suggested that the models be used at temperatures above 7°C, the minimum growth temperature for Salmonella spp. in pork.

  1. Multiscale study of bacterial growth: Experiments and model to understand the impact of gas exchange on global growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalanne-Aulet, David; Piacentini, Adalberto; Guillot, Pierre; Marchal, Philippe; Moreau, Gilles; Colin, Annie

    2015-11-01

    Using a millifluidics and macroscale setup, we study quantitatively the impact of gas exchange on bacterial growth. In millifluidic environments, the permeability of the incubator materials allows an unlimited oxygen supply by diffusion. Moreover, the efficiency of diffusion at small scales makes the supply instantaneous in comparison with the cell division time. In hermetic closed vials, the amount of available oxygen is low. The growth curve has the same trend but is quantitatively different from the millifluidic situation. The analysis of all the data allows us to write a quantitative modeling enabling us to capture the entire growth process.

  2. Colorado Growth Model--Brief Report: Student Growth Percentiles and FRL Status. Accountability & Data Analysis Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colorado Department of Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    This report examines the relationship between socioeconomic status, as defined by a free-and-reduced lunch proxy variable, and student growth percentiles by elementary, middle, and high school grade levels for math, reading, and writing. Comparisons were made between median growth percentiles for each educational level by free and reduced lunch…

  3. Investigation of various growth mechanisms of solid tumour growth within the linear-quadratic model for radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McAneney, H [School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast (United Kingdom); O' Rourke, S F C [School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast (United Kingdom)

    2007-02-21

    The standard linear-quadratic survival model for radiotherapy is used to investigate different schedules of radiation treatment planning to study how these may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics between treatments. The laws for tumour cell repopulation include the logistic and Gompertz models and this extends the work of Wheldon et al (1977 Br. J. Radiol. 50 681), which was concerned with the case of exponential re-growth between treatments. Here we also consider the restricted exponential model. This has been successfully used by Panetta and Adam (1995 Math. Comput. Modelling 22 67) in the case of chemotherapy treatment planning.Treatment schedules investigated include standard fractionation of daily treatments, weekday treatments, accelerated fractionation, optimized uniform schedules and variation of the dosage and {alpha}/{beta} ratio, where {alpha} and {beta} are radiobiological parameters for the tumour tissue concerned. Parameters for these treatment strategies are extracted from the literature on advanced head and neck cancer, prostate cancer, as well as radiosensitive parameters. Standardized treatment protocols are also considered. Calculations based on the present analysis indicate that even with growth laws scaled to mimic initial growth, such that growth mechanisms are comparable, variation in survival fraction to orders of magnitude emerged. Calculations show that the logistic and exponential models yield similar results in tumour eradication. By comparison the Gompertz model calculations indicate that tumours described by this law result in a significantly poorer prognosis for tumour eradication than either the exponential or logistic models. The present study also shows that the faster the tumour growth rate and the higher the repair capacity of the cell line, the greater the variation in outcome of the survival fraction. Gaps in treatment, planned or unplanned, also accentuate the differences of the survival fraction given

  4. Investigation of various growth mechanisms of solid tumour growth within the linear-quadratic model for radiotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAneney, H.; O'Rourke, S. F. C.

    2007-02-01

    The standard linear-quadratic survival model for radiotherapy is used to investigate different schedules of radiation treatment planning to study how these may be affected by different tumour repopulation kinetics between treatments. The laws for tumour cell repopulation include the logistic and Gompertz models and this extends the work of Wheldon et al (1977 Br. J. Radiol. 50 681), which was concerned with the case of exponential re-growth between treatments. Here we also consider the restricted exponential model. This has been successfully used by Panetta and Adam (1995 Math. Comput. Modelling 22 67) in the case of chemotherapy treatment planning.Treatment schedules investigated include standard fractionation of daily treatments, weekday treatments, accelerated fractionation, optimized uniform schedules and variation of the dosage and α/β ratio, where α and β are radiobiological parameters for the tumour tissue concerned. Parameters for these treatment strategies are extracted from the literature on advanced head and neck cancer, prostate cancer, as well as radiosensitive parameters. Standardized treatment protocols are also considered. Calculations based on the present analysis indicate that even with growth laws scaled to mimic initial growth, such that growth mechanisms are comparable, variation in survival fraction to orders of magnitude emerged. Calculations show that the logistic and exponential models yield similar results in tumour eradication. By comparison the Gompertz model calculations indicate that tumours described by this law result in a significantly poorer prognosis for tumour eradication than either the exponential or logistic models. The present study also shows that the faster the tumour growth rate and the higher the repair capacity of the cell line, the greater the variation in outcome of the survival fraction. Gaps in treatment, planned or unplanned, also accentuate the differences of the survival fraction given alternative growth

  5. Modeling and optimization of hairy root growth in fed-batch process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairet, Francis; Villon, Pierre; Boitel-Conti, Michèle; Shakourzadeh, Khalil

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes a feeding strategy based on a kinetic model to enhance hairy roots growth. A new approach for modeling hairy root growth is used, considering that there is no nutrient limitation thanks to an appropriate feeding, and the intracellular pools are supposed to be always saturated. Thus, the model describes the specific growth rate from extracellular concentration of the major nutrients and nutrient uptakes depend on biomass growth. An optimized feeding strategy was determined thanks to the model to maintain the major nutrient levels at their optimum assuming optimal initial concentrations. The optimal feed rate is computed in open loop using kinetic model prediction or in closed loop using conductivity measurements to estimate biomass growth. Datura innoxia was chosen as the model culture system. Shake flask cultures were used to calibrate the model. Finally, cultures in bioreactor were performed to validate the model and the control laws. Copyright 2010 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

  6. Investigation of a growth model incorporating density dependence for the mackerel management plan simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a framework to model density dependent growth for the North East Atlantic mackerel. The model used is the classical von Bertalanffy equation, but modified so that growth is reduced when stock size increases. The model developed was able to reproduce quite closely the trends in t

  7. Investigation of a growth model incorporating density dependence for the mackerel management plan simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a framework to model density dependent growth for the North East Atlantic mackerel. The model used is the classical von Bertalanffy equation, but modified so that growth is reduced when stock size increases. The model developed was able to reproduce quite closely the trends in

  8. Piecewise Linear-Linear Latent Growth Mixture Models with Unknown Knots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Nidhi; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

    2013-01-01

    Latent growth curve models with piecewise functions are flexible and useful analytic models for investigating individual behaviors that exhibit distinct phases of development in observed variables. As an extension of this framework, this study considers a piecewise linear-linear latent growth mixture model (LGMM) for describing segmented change of…

  9. The Effects of Autocorrelation on the Curve-of-Factors Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Beretvas, S. Natasha; Pituch, Keenan A.

    2011-01-01

    This simulation study examined the performance of the curve-of-factors model (COFM) when autocorrelation and growth processes were present in the first-level factor structure. In addition to the standard curve-of factors growth model, 2 new models were examined: one COFM that included a first-order autoregressive autocorrelation parameter, and a…

  10. Photosynthesis driven crop growth models for greenhouse cultivation; advances and bottlenecks.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Challa, H.; Heuvelink, E.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years considerable progress has been made in modelling growth of green-house crops. Nevertheless, the share of research in this field compared to crop modelling in general is only a few percent. Yet, crop growth models have a great potential for greenhouse production systems, because they

  11. Ignition and Growth Reactive Flow Model for IMX-101

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tarver, Craig M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-02-19

    A set of Ignition and Growth (I&G) reactive flow model parameters is developed for the explosive IMX-101 containing DNAN, NQ, and NTO using the available shock initiation and detonation wave propagation experimental data. The unreacted equation of state for IMX-101 is based on experimental data from gas gun experiments by Furnish et al. and is similar to that of TNT. The product equation of state for IMX-101 is based on CHEETAH chemical equilibrium calculations and cylinder test experimental data. The IMX-101 reaction rate parameters are developed using hydrodynamic reactive flow simulations of several shock initiation and detonation experiments. One set of I&G parameters does a good job of reproducing both shock initiation and detonation experimental data. This is due to the fact that IMX-101 reacts over a relatively small pressure range from about 7 GPa to 20 GPa (C-J pressure). Advanced experiments using embedded gauges and/or laser interferometry could lead to better parameters.

  12. Integrated healthcare networks' performance: a growth curve modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Thomas T H; Wang, Bill B L

    2003-05-01

    This study examines the effects of integration on the performance ratings of the top 100 integrated healthcare networks (IHNs) in the United States. A strategic-contingency theory is used to identify the relationship of IHNs' performance to their structural and operational characteristics and integration strategies. To create a database for the panel study, the top 100 IHNs selected by the SMG Marketing Group in 1998 were followed up in 1999 and 2000. The data were merged with the Dorenfest data on information system integration. A growth curve model was developed and validated by the Mplus statistical program. Factors influencing the top 100 IHNs' performance in 1998 and their subsequent rankings in the consecutive years were analyzed. IHNs' initial performance scores were positively influenced by network size, number of affiliated physicians and profit margin, and were negatively associated with average length of stay and technical efficiency. The continuing high performance, judged by maintaining higher performance scores, tended to be enhanced by the use of more managerial or executive decision-support systems. Future studies should include time-varying operational indicators to serve as predictors of network performance.

  13. Revisiting a model of ontogenetic growth: estimating model parameters from theory and data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Melanie E; Hou, Chen; Woodruff, William H; West, Geoffrey B; Nekola, Jeffery C; Zuo, Wenyun; Brown, James H

    2008-05-01

    The ontogenetic growth model (OGM) of West et al. provides a general description of how metabolic energy is allocated between production of new biomass and maintenance of existing biomass during ontogeny. Here, we reexamine the OGM, make some minor modifications and corrections, and further evaluate its ability to account for empirical variation on rates of metabolism and biomass in vertebrates both during ontogeny and across species of varying adult body size. We show that the updated version of the model is internally consistent and is consistent with other predictions of metabolic scaling theory and empirical data. The OGM predicts not only the near universal sigmoidal form of growth curves but also the M(1/4) scaling of the characteristic times of ontogenetic stages in addition to the curvilinear decline in growth efficiency described by Brody. Additionally, the OGM relates the M(3/4) scaling across adults of different species to the scaling of metabolic rate across ontogeny within species. In providing a simple, quantitative description of how energy is allocated to growth, the OGM calls attention to unexplained variation, unanswered questions, and opportunities for future research.

  14. Modeling economic growth fuelled by science and technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Costa Ribeiro

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a simulation model to investigate how science and technology fuel economic growth. This model is built upon a synthesis of technological capabilities represented by national innovation systems. This paper gathers data of papers and patents for 183 countries between 1999 and 2003, as well as GDP and population for 2003. These data show a strong correlation between science, technology and income. Three simulation exercises are performed. Feeding our algorithm with data for population, patents and scientific papers, we obtain the world income distribution. These results support our conjecture on the role of science and technology as sources of the wealth of nations.Este artigo propõe um modelo de simulação para investigar a contribuição da ciência e da tecnologia para o crescimento econômico. O ponto de partida são os sistemas nacionais de inovação, um conceito que sintetiza a capacitação tecnológica das nações. Desta forma, o modelo pode preservar simplicidade e parcimônia. Os dados coletados (patentes, artigos e PIB e população, para 183 países indicam uma forte correlação entre ciência, tecnologia e renda. Três exercícios com simulações são realizados para diversos momentos do tempo, mostrando a progressiva aderência do modelo a essas variáveis tecnológicas.

  15. Predictive microbiology models vs. modeling microbial growth within Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment: what parameters matter and why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouillot, Régis; Lubran, Meryl B

    2011-06-01

    Predictive microbiology models are essential tools to model bacterial growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Various predictive microbiology models and sets of parameters are available: it is of interest to understand the consequences of the choice of the growth model on the risk assessment outputs. Thus, an exercise was conducted to explore the impact of the use of several published models to predict Listeria monocytogenes growth during food storage in a product that permits growth. Results underline a gap between the most studied factors in predictive microbiology modeling (lag, growth rate) and the most influential parameters on the estimated risk of listeriosis in this scenario (maximum population density, bacterial competition). The mathematical properties of an exponential dose-response model for Listeria accounts for the fact that the mean number of bacteria per serving and, as a consequence, the highest achievable concentrations in the product under study, has a strong influence on the estimated expected number of listeriosis cases in this context.

  16. Microbial growth curves: what the models tell us and what they cannot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Micha; Corradini, Maria G

    2011-12-01

    Most of the models of microbial growth in food are Empirical algebraic, of which the Gompertz model is the most notable, Rate equations, mostly variants of the Verhulst's logistic model, or Population Dynamics models, which can be deterministic and continuous or stochastic and discrete. The models of the first two kinds only address net growth and hence cannot account for cell mortality that can occur at any phase of the growth. Almost invariably, several alternative models of all three types can describe the same set of experimental growth data. This lack of uniqueness is by itself a reason to question any mechanistic interpretation of growth parameters obtained by curve fitting alone. As argued, all the variants of the Verhulst's model, including the Baranyi-Roberts model, are empirical phenomenological models in a rate equation form. None provides any mechanistic insight or has inherent advantage over the others. In principle, models of all three kinds can predict non-isothermal growth patterns from isothermal data. Thus a modeler should choose the simplest and most convenient model for this purpose. There is no reason to assume that the dependence of the "maximum specific growth rate" on temperature, pH, water activity, or other factors follows the original or modified versions of the Arrhenius model, as the success of Ratkowsky's square root model testifies. Most sigmoid isothermal growth curves require three adjustable parameters for their mathematical description and growth curves showing a peak at least four. Although frequently observed, there is no theoretical reason that these growth parameters should always rise and fall in unison in response to changes in external conditions. Thus quantifying the effect of an environmental factor on microbial growth require that all the growth parameters are addressed, not just the "maximum specific growth rate." Different methods to determine the "lag time" often yield different values, demonstrating that it is a

  17. Markov Modeling of Component Fault Growth Over A Derived Domain of Feasible Output Control Effort Modifications

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a novel Markov process formulation of stochastic fault growth modeling, in order to facilitate the development and analysis of...

  18. Development of a new logistic model for microbial growth in foods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi

    2010-09-01

    Mathematical models are essentially needed to quantitatively predict microbial growth in food products during their production and distribution. Recently we developed a new logistic model for microbial growth. The model is an extended logistic model, which shows a sigmoid curve on a semi-log plot. The model could precisely describe and predict bacterial growth at constant and dynamic temperatures in broth, on nutrient agar plates, and in pouched food. Prediction results with our model were very similar to those with the Baranyi model, which is well known worldwide. The model also predicted the amount of metabolites (toxins) that would be produced by a microorganism. Namely, with the growth model and the kinetics of staphylococcal enterotoxin A production, the amount of the toxins produced by Staphylococcus aureus in milk was successfully predicted. Our model could be a tool in the alert system and the quantitative risk assessment of harmful microbes in food.

  19. Microalgae bulk growth model with application to industrial scale systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinn, J.; Winter, de L.; Bradley, T.

    2011-01-01

    The scalability of microalgae growth systems is a primary research topic in anticipation of the commercialization of microalgae-based biofuels. To date, there is little published data on the productivity of microalgae in growth systems that are scalable to commercially viable footprints. To inform

  20. Quantifying strain variability in modeling growth of Listeria monocytogenes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aryani, D.; Besten, den H.M.W.; Hazeleger, W.C.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of microbial growth kinetics can differ from the actual behavior of the target microorganisms. In the present study, the impact of strain variability on maximum specific growth rate (µmax) (h- 1) was quantified using twenty Listeria monocytogenes strains. The µmax was determined as functi

  1. Calcite growth kinetics: Modeling the effect of solution stoichiometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolthers, M.; Nehrke, G.; Gustafsson, J.P.; Van Cappellen, P.

    2012-01-01

    Until recently the influence of solution stoichiometry on calcite crystal growth kinetics has attracted little attention, despite the fact that in most aqueous environments calcite precipitates from non-stoichiometric solution. In order to account for the dependence of the calcite crystal growth rat

  2. Microalgae bulk growth model with application to industrial scale systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinn, J.; Winter, de L.; Bradley, T.

    2011-01-01

    The scalability of microalgae growth systems is a primary research topic in anticipation of the commercialization of microalgae-based biofuels. To date, there is little published data on the productivity of microalgae in growth systems that are scalable to commercially viable footprints. To inform t

  3. Microalgae bulk growth model with application to industrial scale systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quinn, J.; Winter, de L.; Bradley, T.

    2011-01-01

    The scalability of microalgae growth systems is a primary research topic in anticipation of the commercialization of microalgae-based biofuels. To date, there is little published data on the productivity of microalgae in growth systems that are scalable to commercially viable footprints. To inform t

  4. A Tumor Growth Model with Unmolded Dynamics Based on an Online Feedback Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ArashPourhashemi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we identify tumor growth system by an online feedback neural network model based on back-propagation method. The modeling and identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is the process of developing and improving a mathematical representation of a system using experimental data. So, it is a problem of considerable importance through the use of measured experimental data in biomedical modeling. As is obvious, in biomedical researches it is really difficult and in some cases impossible to implement research on real patient or such a system which is not possible to empirical tests. To deal with, we need sometime a model close to real system in order to forecast dynamic systems so as to perform researches on models and design controller for control of system.

  5. Development of a competition model for microbial growth in mixed culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Munakata, Kanako; Sakha, Mohammad Z

    2014-01-01

    A novel competition model for describing bacterial growth in mixed culture was developed in this study. Several model candidates were made with our logistic growth model that precisely describes the growth of a monoculture of bacteria. These candidates were then evaluated for the usefulness in describing growth of two competing species in mixed culture using Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella. Bacterial cells of two species grew at initial doses of 10(3), 10(4), and 10(5) CFU/g at 28ºC. Among the candidates, a model where the Lotka-Volterra model, a general competition model in ecology, was incorporated as a new term in our growth model was the best for describing all types of growth of two competitors in mixed culture. Moreover, the values for the competition coefficient in the model were stable at various combinations of the initial populations of the species. The Baranyi model could also successfully describe the above types of growth in mixed culture when it was coupled with the Gimenez and Dalgaard model. However, the values for the competition coefficients in the competition model varied with the conditions. The present study suggested that our model could be a basic model for describing microbial competition.

  6. Recombinant vascular endothelial growth factor 121 injection for the prevention of fetal growth restriction in a preeclampsia mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistyowati, Sri; Bachnas, Muhammad Adrianes; Anggraini, Nuri Dyah; Yuliantara, Eric Edwin; Prabowo, Wisnu; Anggraini, Nutria Widya Purna; Pramono, Mochammad Besari Adi; Adityawarman; Dachlan, Erry Gumilar; Andonotopo, Wiku

    2017-02-01

    To discover the potential role of recombinant VEGF121 (rVEGF121) injection for the prevention of fetal growth restriction in a preeclampsia (PE) mouse model (Mus musculus). This is an experimental study of 30 pregnant mice that were randomly divided into three groups: normal, PE, and PE with rVEGF121 injection. The PE mouse model was created by injecting anti Qa-2 10 ng iv, which is deleterious to Qa-2 expression (homologous to HLA-G), from the first to the fourth day of gestation. PE was validated by measuring serum levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor(PIGF) and also by kidney histopathology. Recombinant VEGF121 was given on the ninth day until the 11th day of pregnancy; mice were terminated on the 16th day. Fetal weights were acquired with a Denver analytical balance. Serum levels of sFlt-1 and PlGF were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The data were statistically analyzed via analysis of variance (ANOVA). On average, fetal birth weight was 0.7150 g in the normal group, 0.4936 g in the PE group, and 0.6768 g in the PE with rVEGF121 injection group. ANOVA showed significant growth restriction in the PE group (P=0.006), confirming the use of anti Qa-2 as a suitable PE model. Kidney histopathology results, sFlt-1 levels, and PlGF levels also demonstrated that anti Qa-2 consistently conferred hallmarks of PE in mice. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injection prevented fetal growth restriction; comparable fetal weights were observed between the PE model with VEGF treatment and the normal group (P=0.610) but differed from the untreated PE group (P=0.021). Injection of rVEGF121 has the potential to prevent fetal growth restriction in a newly proposed PE mouse model.

  7. Biomechanical analysis and modeling of different vertebral growth patterns in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis and healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Driscoll Mark

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The etiology of AIS remains unclear, thus various hypotheses concerning its pathomechanism have been proposed. To date, biomechanical modeling has not been used to thoroughly study the influence of the abnormal growth profile (i.e., the growth rate of the vertebral body during the growth period on the pathomechanism of curve progression in AIS. This study investigated the hypothesis that AIS progression is associated with the abnormal growth profiles of the anterior column of the spine. Methods A finite element model of the spinal column including growth dynamics was utilized. The initial geometric models were constructed from the bi-planar radiographs of a normal subject. Based on this model, five other geometric models were generated to emulate different coronal and sagittal curves. The detailed modeling integrated vertebral body growth plates and growth modulation spinal biomechanics. Ten years of spinal growth was simulated using AIS and normal growth profiles. Sequential measures of spinal alignments were compared. Results (1 Given the initial lateral deformity, the AIS growth profile induced a significant Cobb angle increase, which was roughly between three to five times larger compared to measures utilizing a normal growth profile. (2 Lateral deformities were absent in the models containing no initial coronal curvature. (3 The presence of a smaller kyphosis did not produce an increase lateral deformity on its own. (4 Significant reduction of the kyphosis was found in simulation results of AIS but not when using the growth profile of normal subjects. Conclusion Results from this analysis suggest that accelerated growth profiles may encourage supplementary scoliotic progression and, thus, may pose as a progressive risk factor.

  8. A Two-Sector Economic Growth Model with Labor Force Transfer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CaiDong-han; ZhouMing-chun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, a two-sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two-dimension nonau-tonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth.It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.

  9. A Two-Sector Economic Growth Model with Labor Force Transfer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cai Dong-han; Zhou Ming-chun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, a two-sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two-dimension nonautonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth.It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.

  10. Modeling and prediction of children’s growth data via functional principal component analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We use the functional principal component analysis(FPCA) to model and predict the weight growth in children.In particular,we examine how the approach can help discern growth patterns of underweight children relative to their normal counterparts,and whether a commonly used transformation to normality plays any constructive roles in a predictive model based on the FPCA.Our work supplements the conditional growth charts developed by Wei and He(2006) by constructing a predictive growth model based on a small number of principal components scores on individual’s past.

  11. DESIGNING A FORECAST MODEL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH OF JAPAN USING COMPETITIVE (HYBRID ANN VS MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet DEMIR

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural network models have been already used on many different fields successfully. However, many researches show that ANN models provide better optimum results than other competitive models in most of the researches. But does it provide optimum solutions in case ANN is proposed as hybrid model? The answer of this question is given in this research by using these models on modelling a forecast for GDP growth of Japan. Multiple regression models utilized as competitive models versus hybrid ANN (ANN + multiple regression models. Results have shown that hybrid model gives better responds than multiple regression models. However, variables, which were significantly affecting GDP growth, were determined and some of the variables, which were assumed to be affecting GDP growth of Japan, were eliminated statistically.

  12. Numerical modeling of dimethyl ether (DME) bubble growth and breakup

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Peng; ZHANG YuSheng

    2009-01-01

    A numerical program is written to simulate the process of vapor bubble growth with spherical symmetry from the thermodynamic critical radius in an initially uniformly superheated liquid. The program is validated by the experimental data of superheated water. The calculated results agree with those of experiments well. The program takes into account the variations of properties with temperature precisely to simulate the DME bubble growth under flash boiling conditions. Considering the influences of pressure, surface tension and viscous stress, the linear stability analysis method is adopted to deduce the dispersion equation to represent the disturbance development during the bubble growth, and a new criterion for bubble breakup is established. The results show the bubble becomes more unstable with the increase of bubble Weber number and void fraction, and that with the increase of bubble growth rate or the decrease of initial radius ration of droplet to bubble, the breakup time of bubble becomes shorter.

  13. Effects on generalized growth models driven by a non-Poissonian dichotomic noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bologna, M.; Calisto, H.

    2011-10-01

    In this paper we consider a general growth model with stochastic growth rate modelled via a symmetric non-poissonian dichotomic noise. We find an exact analytical solution for its probability distribution. We consider the, as yet, unexplored case where the deterministic growth rate is perturbed by a dichotomic noise characterized by a waiting time distribution in the two state that is a power law with power 1 Malthus-Verhulst and Gompertz.

  14. Modeling the microbial growth of two Escherichia coli strains in a multi-substrate environment

    OpenAIRE

    Poccia,M. E.; Beccaria, A. J.; R. G. Dondo

    2014-01-01

    The microbial growth in multi-substrate environments may be viewed as an optimal resources allocation problem. The optimization aims at maximizing some biological objective like the biomass growth. The models developed using this hypothesis are called “cybernetic” and they represent the complex cell structure as an optimizing function that regulates the intracellular enzymatic machinery. In this work, a cybernetic model was developed to represent the growth of two E. coli strains (JM 109 and ...

  15. Stochastic Optimal Economic Growth Model with Natural Resources

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Shaobo; HU Shigeng; WANG Maofa

    2006-01-01

    The paper examines an economic growth problem how social planners reasonably open up and retain natural resources. The objective is to maximize the total expected discounted utility of comsumption. Social planners ' optimal decision and optimal expected rates at the steady state are derived. At last, how productivity and productivity shock affect on the expected growth rate, consumption-resources ratio and the fraction of exploited resources, are analyzed.

  16. Business Model Innovation Portfolio Strategy for Growth Under Product-Market Configurations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bert Verhoeven; Lester W Johnson

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The research links three concepts: product market growth strategy, the magnitude of innovation and Business Model Innovation, merging them together into a dynamic Business Model Innovation strategy framework...

  17. The Effects of Use of Average Instead of Daily Weather Data in Crop Growth Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nonhebel, Sanderine

    1994-01-01

    Development and use of crop growth simulation models has increased in the last decades. Most crop growth models require daily weather data as input values. These data are not easy to obtain and therefore in many studies daily data are generated, or average values are used as input data for these

  18. A fungal growth model fitted to carbon-limited dynamics of Rhizoctonia solani

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeger, M.J.; Lamour, A.; Gilligan, C.A.; Otten, W.

    2008-01-01

    Here, a quasi-steady-state approximation was used to simplify a mathematical model for fungal growth in carbon-limiting systems, and this was fitted to growth dynamics of the soil-borne plant pathogen and saprotroph Rhizoctonia solani. The model identified a criterion for invasion into

  19. Studies on stand dynamic growth model for larch in Jilin in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WENGGuo-qing; CHENXue-feng

    2004-01-01

    The stand growth and yield dynamic models for Larch in Jilin Province were developed based on the forest growth theories with the forest continuous inventory data. The results indicated that the developed models had high precision, and they could be used for the updating data of inventory of planning and designing and optimal decision of forest management.

  20. Determinism, noise, and spurious estimations in a generalised model of population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vladar, H.P.; Pen, I.R.

    2007-01-01

    We study a generalised model of population growth in which the state variable is population growth rate instead of population size. Stochastic parametric perturbations, modelling phenotypic variability, lead to a Langevin system with two sources of multiplicative noise. The stationary probability di

  1. A Kinetic Model for GaAs Growth by Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulte, Kevin L.; Simon, John; Jain, Nikhil; Young, David L.; Ptak, Aaron J.

    2016-11-21

    Precise control of the growth of III-V materials by hydride vapor phase epitaxy (HVPE) is complicated by the fact that the growth rate depends on the concentrations of nearly all inputs to the reactor and also the reaction temperature. This behavior is in contrast to metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy (MOVPE), which in common practice operates in a mass transport limited regime where growth rate and alloy composition are controlled almost exclusively by flow of the Group III precursor. In HVPE, the growth rate and alloy compositions are very sensitive to temperature and reactant concentrations, which are strong functions of the reactor geometry. HVPE growth, particularly the growth of large area materials and devices, will benefit from the development of a growth model that can eventually be coupled with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of a specific reactor geometry. In this work, we develop a growth rate law using a Langmuir-Hinshelwood (L-H) analysis, fitting unknown parameters to growth rate data from the literature that captures the relevant kinetic and thermodynamic phenomena of the HVPE process. We compare the L-H rate law to growth rate data from our custom HVPE reactor, and develop quantitative insight into reactor performance, demonstrating the utility of the growth model.

  2. A new mechanistic growth model for simultaneous determination of lag phase duration and exponential growth rate and a new Bĕlehdrádek-type model for evaluating the effect of temperature on growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lihan

    2011-06-01

    A new mechanistic growth model was developed to describe microbial growth under isothermal conditions. The new mathematical model was derived from the basic observation of bacterial growth that may include lag, exponential, and stationary phases. With this model, the lag phase duration and exponential growth rate of a growth curve were simultaneously determined by nonlinear regression. The new model was validated using Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in broth or meat. Statistical results suggested that both bias factor (B(f)) and accuracy factor (A(f)) of the new model were very close to 1.0. A new Bĕlehdrádek-type rate model and the Ratkowsky square-root model were used to describe the temperature dependence of bacterial growth rate. It was observed that the maximum and minimum temperatures were more accurately estimated by a new Bĕlehdrádek-type rate model. Further, the inverse of square-roots of lag phases was found proportional to temperature, making it possible to estimate the lag phase duration from the growth temperature.

  3. A Minimal Model for Large-scale Epitaxial Growth Kinetics of Graphene

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Huijun

    2015-01-01

    Epitaxial growth via chemical vapor deposition is considered to be the most promising way towards synthesizing large area graphene with high quality. However, it remains a big theoretical challenge to reveal growth kinetics with atomically energetic and large-scale spatial information included. Here, we propose a minimal kinetic Monte Carlo model to address such an issue on an active catalyst surface with graphene/substrate lattice mismatch, which facilitates us to perform large scale simulations of the growth kinetics over two dimensional surface with growth fronts of complex shapes. A geometry-determined large-scale growth mechanism is revealed, where the rate-dominating event is found to be $C_{1}$-attachment for concave growth front segments and $C_{5}$-attachment for others. This growth mechanism leads to an interesting time-resolved growth behavior which is well consistent with that observed in a recent scanning tunneling microscopy experiment.

  4. Selecting a linear mixed model for longitudinal data: repeated measures analysis of variance, covariance pattern model, and growth curve approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siwei; Rovine, Michael J; Molenaar, Peter C M

    2012-03-01

    With increasing popularity, growth curve modeling is more and more often considered as the 1st choice for analyzing longitudinal data. Although the growth curve approach is often a good choice, other modeling strategies may more directly answer questions of interest. It is common to see researchers fit growth curve models without considering alterative modeling strategies. In this article we compare 3 approaches for analyzing longitudinal data: repeated measures analysis of variance, covariance pattern models, and growth curve models. As all are members of the general linear mixed model family, they represent somewhat different assumptions about the way individuals change. These assumptions result in different patterns of covariation among the residuals around the fixed effects. In this article, we first indicate the kinds of data that are appropriately modeled by each and use real data examples to demonstrate possible problems associated with the blanket selection of the growth curve model. We then present a simulation that indicates the utility of Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion in the selection of a proper residual covariance structure. The results cast doubt on the popular practice of automatically using growth curve modeling for longitudinal data without comparing the fit of different models. Finally, we provide some practical advice for assessing mean changes in the presence of correlated data.

  5. Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on the surface of smear- or mold-ripened cheese.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schvartzman, M Sol; Gonzalez-Barron, Ursula; Butler, Francis; Jordan, Kieran

    2014-01-01

    Surface-ripened cheeses are matured by means of manual or mechanical technologies posing a risk of cross-contamination, if any cheeses are contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes. In predictive microbiology, primary models are used to describe microbial responses, such as growth rate over time and secondary models explain how those responses change with environmental factors. In this way, primary models were used to assess the growth rate of L. monocytogenes during ripening of the cheeses and the secondary models to test how much the growth rate was affected by either the pH and/or the water activity (aw) of the cheeses. The two models combined can be used to predict outcomes. The purpose of these experiments was to test three primary (the modified Gompertz equation, the Baranyi and Roberts model, and the Logistic model) and three secondary (the Cardinal model, the Ratowski model, and the Presser model) mathematical models in order to define which combination of models would best predict the growth of L. monocytogenes on the surface of artificially contaminated surface-ripened cheeses. Growth on the surface of the cheese was assessed and modeled. The primary models were firstly fitted to the data and the effects of pH and aw on the growth rate (μmax) were incorporated and assessed one by one with the secondary models. The Logistic primary model by itself did not show a better fit of the data among the other primary models tested, but the inclusion of the Cardinal secondary model improved the final fit. The aw was not related to the growth of Listeria. This study suggests that surface-ripened cheese should be separately regulated within EU microbiological food legislation and results expressed as counts per surface area rather than per gram.

  6. Growth theory after Keynes, part I: the unfortunate suppression of the Harrod-Domar model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hendrik Van den Berg

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available After Harrod and Domar independently developed a dynamic Keynesian circular flow model to illustrate the instability of a growing economy, mainstream economists quickly reduced their model to a supply side-only growth model, which they subsequently rejected as too simplistic and replaced with Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The rejection process of first diminishing the model and then replaced it with a neoclassical alternative was similar to how the full Keynesian macroeconomic paradigm was diminished into IS-LM analysis and then replaced by a simplistic neoclassical framework that largely ignored the demand side of the economy. Furthermore, subsequent work by mainstream economists has resulted in a logically inconsistent framework for analyzing economic growth; the popular endogenous growth models, which use Schumpeter’s concept of profit-driven creative destruction to explain the technological change that Solow left as exogenous, are not logically compatible with the Solow model.

  7. Evaluation of growth models for follicle development and ovulation in Lusitano mares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, F

    2012-12-01

    Several growth models are commonly used in the biological sciences, to model the follicle growth occurring in the estrous cycle. The aim of this project was to find the model that best fit the follicular size growth data for Lusitano mares. Retrospective data collected from reproduction book records of n=84 mares and n=124 cycles was used to find the series to be fitted to the models. The exponential, Gompertz, logistic, von Bertalanffy, Richards and Weibull models were used, and the most parsimonious and best fit was achieved with the logistic model (r(2)=0.999). The logistic model fits the Lusitano mare's follicle size growth data very well and its parameters were also shown to have a credible biological interpretation.

  8. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near...

  9. A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Chowell, Gerardo

    2016-01-01

    the importance of sub-exponential growth for forecasting purposes.Results: We applied the generalized-growth model to 20 infectious disease outbreaks representing a range of transmission routes. We uncovered epidemic profiles ranging from very slow growth (p = 0.14 for the Ebola outbreak in Bomi, Liberia (2014...... African Ebola epidemic provided a unique opportunity to explore how growth profiles vary by geography; analysis of the largest district-level outbreaks revealed substantial growth variations (mean p = 0.59, range: 0.14–0.97). The districts of Margibi in Liberia and Bombali and Bo in Sierra Leone had near...

  10. Modelling of Heat Transfer in Single Crystal Growth

    CERN Document Server

    Zhmakin, Alexander I

    2014-01-01

    An attempt is made to review the heat transfer and the related problems encountered in the simulation of single crystal growth. The peculiarities of conductive, convective and radiative heat transfer in the different melt, solution, and vapour growth methods are discussed. The importance of the adequate description of the optical crystal properties (semitransparency, specular reflecting surfaces) and their effect on the heat transfer is stresses. Treatment of the unknown phase boundary fluid/crystal as well as problems related to the assessment of the quality of the grown crystals (composition, thermal stresses, point defects, disclocations etc.) and their coupling to the heat transfer/fluid flow problems is considered. Differences between the crystal growth simulation codes intended for the research and for the industrial applications are indicated. The problems of the code verification and validation are discussed; a brief review of the experimental techniques for the study of heat transfer and flow structu...

  11. Decisions on investment allocation in the post-keynesian growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Azevedo Araujo

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the growth models of Feldman (1928 and Mahalanobis (1953 are extended to consider the analysis of decisions of investment allocation in the context of the Post Keynesian Growth Model. By adopting this approach it is possible to introduce distributive features in the Feldman-Mahalanobis model that allows us to determine the rate of investment allocation according to the equilibrium decisions of investment and savings. Finally, an additional condition is added to the Post Keynesian Growth Model in order to fully characterise the equilibrium path in an extended version of this framework, where capital goods are also needed to produce capital goods.

  12. Field data and growth model for mussels Mytilus edulis in Danish waters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riisgard, Hans Ulrik; Lundgreen, Kim; Larsen, Poul S.

    2012-01-01

    bioenergetic growth model for mussels (μ = aWb, a = 0.871 x C - 0.986, b = -0.34), and observed power-law relations of growth data were in good agreement with the model, which takes into account the prevailing average chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration (C, μ g chl a l-1) at field sites. Thus, the b......Growth rates of blue mussels, Mytilus edulis, in suspended net-bags were measured in field experiments conducted in Limfjorden and Great Belt, Denmark, for extended periods of time (22 69 days) with up to 8 intermediate data samplings during the period. The resulting time series of growth...

  13. Non-existence of Steady State Equilibrium in the Neoclassical Growth Model with a Longevity Trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem

    of steady state equilibrium when considering the empirically observed trend in longevity. We extend a standard continuous time overlapping generations model by a longevity trend and are thereby able to study the properties of mortality-driven population growth. This turns out to be exceedingly complicated......Longevity has been increasing in the developed countries for almost two centuries and further increases are expected in the future. In the neoclassical growth models the case of population growth driven by fertility is well-known, whereas the properties of population growth caused by persistently...

  14. Phase-field model of isothermal solidification with multiple grain growth

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Li; Wang Zhi-Ping; Zhu Chang-Sheng; Lu Yang

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops a new phase-field model for equiaxed dendrite growth of multiple grains in multicomponent alloys based on the Ginzberg-Landau theory and phase-field model of a single grain. Taking Al-Cu and Al-Cu-Mg alloys for example, it couples the concentration field and simulates the dendrite growth process of multiple grains during isothermal solidification. The result of the simulation shows dendrite competitive growth of multiple grains, and is reapplied to the process of dendrite growth in practical solidification.

  15. Saliency detection and model-based tracking: a two part vision system for small robot navigation in forested environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Richard; Ta, Duy-Nguyen; Straub, Julian; Ok, Kyel; Dellaert, Frank

    2012-06-01

    Towards the goal of fast, vision-based autonomous flight, localization, and map building to support local planning and control in unstructured outdoor environments, we present a method for incrementally building a map of salient tree trunks while simultaneously estimating the trajectory of a quadrotor flying through a forest. We make significant progress in a class of visual perception methods that produce low-dimensional, geometric information that is ideal for planning and navigation on aerial robots, while directing computational resources using motion saliency, which selects objects that are important to navigation and planning. By low-dimensional geometric information, we mean coarse geometric primitives, which for the purposes of motion planning and navigation are suitable proxies for real-world objects. Additionally, we develop a method for summarizing past image measurements that avoids expensive computations on a history of images while maintaining the key non-linearities that make full map and trajectory smoothing possible. We demonstrate results with data from a small, commercially-available quad-rotor flying in a challenging, forested environment.

  16. Virtual microstructural leaf tissue generation based on cell growth modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abera, M.K.; Retta, M.A.; Verboven, P.; Nicolai, B.M.; Berghuijs, H.; Struik, P.

    2016-01-01

    A cell growth algorithm for virtual leaf tissue generation is presented based on the biomechanics of plant cells in tissues. The algorithm can account for typical differences in epidermal layers, palisade mesophyll layer and spongy mesophyll layer which have characteristic differences in the shap

  17. Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Model of Endogenous Growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Canton, E.J.F.

    1997-01-01

    It is nowadays widely believed that public schooling may contribute favourably to long-term economic growth. The income tax rates that are needed to finance government spending typically show an erratic time pattern. Such tax randomness could increase the intensity of the business cycle. Thus, gover

  18. Cross-twinning model of fcc crystal growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waal, van de Benjamin W.

    1996-01-01

    The theory developed in 1960 by Wagner, Hamilton and Seidensticker (WHS-theory) to explain observed crystal growth phenomena in Ge is critically reviewed and shown to be capable of explaining preservation of ABC stacking order in two dimensions in fcc crystals of effectively spherical closed shell m

  19. The growth limits of the low cost carrier model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Wit, J.G.; Zuidberg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Today, many low cost carriers (LCCs) continue to enjoy rapid growth and still have a fair number of new aircraft on order. There are signs however that the market for LCCs is limited, owing to increasing route density problems, primarily in Europe but seemingly also in North America: the fact that a

  20. Using atomistic simulations to model cadmium telluride thin film growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Miao; Kenny, Steven D.

    2016-03-01

    Cadmium telluride (CdTe) is an excellent material for low-cost, high efficiency thin film solar cells. It is important to conduct research on how defects are formed during the growth process, since defects lower the efficiency of solar cells. In this work we use computer simulation to predict the growth of a sputter deposited CdTe thin film. On-the-fly kinetic Monte Carlo technique is used to simulate the CdTe thin film growth on the (1 1 1) surfaces. The results show that on the (1 1 1) surfaces the growth mechanisms on surfaces which are terminated by Cd or Te are quite different, regardless of the deposition energy (0.1∼ 10 eV). On the Te-terminated (1 1 1) surface the deposited clusters first form a single mixed species layer, then the Te atoms in the mixed layer moved up to form a new layer. Whilst on the Cd-terminated (1 1 1) surface the new Cd and Te layers are formed at the same time. Such differences are probably caused by stronger bonding between ad-atoms and surface atoms on the Te layer than on the Cd layer.

  1. Statistical evaluation of mathematical models for microbial growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lopez, S.; Prieto, M.; Dijkstra, J.; Dhanoa, M.S.; France, J.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of several mathematical functions for describing microbial growth curves. The nonlinear functions used were: three-phase linear, logistic, Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, Richards, Morgan, Weibull, France and Baranyi. Two data sets were used, one comp

  2. Growth and yield model application in tropical rain forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    James Atta-Boateng; John W., Jr. Moser

    2000-01-01

    Analytical tools are needed to evaluate the impact of management policies on the sustainable use of rain forest. Optimal decisions concerning the level of management inputs require accurate predictions of output at all relevant input levels. Using growth data from 40 l-hectare permanent plots obtained from the semi-deciduous forest of Ghana, a system of 77 differential...

  3. A one-dimensional mixed porohyperelastic transport swelling finite element model with growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, J L; Simon, B R; Vande Geest, J P

    2014-01-01

    A one-dimensional, large-strain, mixed porohyperelastic transport and swelling (MPHETS) finite element model was developed in MATLAB and incorporated with a well-known growth model for soft tissues to allow the model to grow (increase in length) or shrink (decrease in length) at constant material density. By using the finite element model to determine the deformation and stress state, it is possible to implement different growth laws in the program in the future to simulate how soft tissues grow and behave when exposed to various stimuli (e.g. mechanical, chemical, or electrical). The essential assumptions needed to use the MPHETS model with growth are clearly identified and explained in this paper. The primary assumption in this work, however, is that the stress upon which growth acts is the stress in the solid skeleton, i.e. the effective stress, S(eff). It is shown that significantly different amounts of growth are experienced for the same loading conditions when using a porohyperelastic model as compared to a purely solid model. In one particular example, approximately 51% less total growth occurred in the MPHETS model than in the solid model even though both problems were subjected to the same external loading. This work represents a first step in developing more sophisticated models capable of capturing the complex mechanical and biochemical environment in growing and remodeling tissues.

  4. Hydrothermal time models for conidial germination and mycelial growth of the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, Connor W; Meyer, Susan E; Beckstead, Julie; Allen, Phil S

    2015-08-01

    Population-based threshold models using hydrothermal time (HTT) have been widely used to model seed germination. We used HTT to model conidial germination and mycelial growth for the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda in a novel approach to understanding its interactions with host seeds. Germination time courses and mycelial growth rates for P.semeniperda were measured on PDA amended to achieve a series of five water potentials (ca. 0 to -6 MPa) at six constant temperatures (5-30 °C). Conidial germination was described with alternative population-based models using constant or variable base and maximum temperature and water potential parameters. Mycelial growth was modeled as a continuous, linear process with constant base temperature and base water potential. Models based on HTT showed reasonable fit to germination and growth rate data sets. The best-fit conidial germination model (R(2) = 0.859) was based on variable base and maximum temperature as a function of water potential. The good fit of the linear mycelial growth model (R(2) = 0.916) demonstrated the utility of HTT for modeling continuous as well as population-based processes. HTT modeling may be a useful approach to the quantification of germination and growth processes in a wide range of filamentous fungi. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Competition between injunctive social norms and conservation priorities gives rise to complex dynamics in a model of forest growth and opinion dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigdel, Ram P; Anand, Madhur; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-11-07

    Human and environmental systems are often treated as existing in isolation from one another, whereas in fact they are often two parts of a single, coupled human-environment system. Developing theoretical models of coupled human-environment systems is a continuing area of research, although relatively few of these models are based on differential equations. Here we develop a simple differential equation coupled human-environment system model of forest growth dynamics and conservationist opinion dynamics in a human population. The model assumes logistic growth and harvesting in the forest. Opinion spread in the human population is based on the interplay between conservation values stimulated by forest rarity, and injunctive social norms that tend to support population conformity. We find that injunctive social norms drive the system to the boundaries of phase space, whereas rarity-based conservation priorities drive the system to the interior. The result is complex dynamics including limit cycles and alternative stable states that do not occur if injunctive social norms are absent. We found that the model with injunctive social norms had five possible observable outcomes, whereas the model without social norms had only two stable states. Thus social norms and have dramatic influence in conservation dynamics. We also find that increasing the conservation value of forests is the best way to boost and stabilize forest cover while also boosting conservationist opinion in the population, although for some parameter regimes it can also give rise to long-term oscillations in opinions and forest cover. We conclude that simple models can provide insights and reveal patterns that might be difficult to see with high-dimensional computational models, and therefore should be used more often in research on coupled human-environment systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A two-phase model for smoothly joining disparate growth phases in the macropodid Thylogale billardierii.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clive R McMahon

    Full Text Available Generally, sigmoid curves are used to describe the growth of animals over their lifetime. However, because growth rates often differ over an animal's lifetime a single curve may not accurately capture the growth. Broken-stick models constrained to pass through a common point have been proposed to describe the different growth phases, but these are often unsatisfactory because essentially there are still two functions that describe the lifetime growth. To provide a single, converged model to age animals with disparate growth phases we developed a smoothly joining two-phase nonlinear function (SJ2P, tailored to provide a more accurate description of lifetime growth of the macropod, the Tasmanian pademelon Thylogale billardierii. The model consists of the Verhulst logistic function, which describes pouch-phase growth--joining smoothly to the Brody function, which describes post-pouch growth. Results from the model demonstrate that male pademelons grew faster and bigger than females. Our approach provides a practical means of ageing wild pademelons for life history studies but given the high variability of the data used to parametrise the second growth phase of the model, the accuracy of ageing of post-weaned animals is low: accuracy might be improved with collection of longitudinal growth data. This study provides a unique, first robust method that can be used to characterise growth over the lifespan of pademelons. The development of this method is relevant to collecting age-specific vital rates from commonly used wildlife management practices to provide crucial insights into the demographic behaviour of animal populations.

  7. Plant growth simulation for landscape scale hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landscape scale hydrologic models can be improved by incorporating realistic, process-oriented plant models for simulating crops, grasses, and woody species. The objective of this project was to present some approaches for plant modeling applicable to hydrologic models like SWAT that can affect the...

  8. A framework for modeling interregional population distribution and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledent, J; Gordon, P

    1981-01-01

    "An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of regions. This model links the interregional economic model of Isard (1960) and the interregional demographic model of Rogers (1975) via functions describing consumption and migration patterns. Migration rates are determined jointly with labor force participation rates and unemployment rates."

  9. A Three-period Samuelson-Diamond Growth Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blomgren-Hansen, Niels

    2005-01-01

    Samuelson (1958) analyses a three-period model, whereas Diamod (1965) considers a two-period model. This difference poses the question whether the insights derived by analysing the simple two-period model carry over in the more complicated three-period case. They do. The Samuelson model (no...

  10. Crack growth rate in core shroud horizontal welds using two models for a BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arganis Juárez, C.R., E-mail: carlos.arganis@inin.gob.mx; Hernández Callejas, R.; Medina Almazán, A.L.

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Two models were used to predict SCC growth rate in a core shroud of a BWR. • A weld residual stress distribution with 30% stress relaxation by neutron was used. • Agreement is shown between the measurements of SCC growth rate and the predictions. • Slip–oxidation model is better at low fluences and empirical model at high fluences. - Abstract: An empirical crack growth rate correlation model and a predictive model based on the slip–oxidation mechanism for Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) were used to calculate the crack growth rate in a BWR core shroud. In this study, the crack growth rate was calculated by accounting for the environmental factors related to aqueous environment, neutron irradiation to high fluence and the complex residual stress conditions resulting from welding. In estimating the SCC behavior the crack growth measurements data from a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) plant are referred to, and the stress intensity factor vs crack depth throughout thickness is calculated using a generic weld residual stress distribution for a core shroud, with a 30% stress relaxation induced by neutron irradiation. Quantitative agreement is shown between the measurements of SCC growth rate and the predictions of the slip–oxidation mechanism model for relatively low fluences (5 × 10{sup 24} n/m{sup 2}), and the empirical model predicted better the SCC growth rate than the slip–oxidation model for high fluences (>1 × 10{sup 25} n/m{sup 2}). The relevance of the models predictions for SCC growth rate behavior depends on knowing the model parameters.

  11. First Versus Second Order Latent Growth Curve Models: Some Insights From Latent State-Trait Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Geiser, Christian; Keller, Brian; Lockhart, Ginger

    2013-01-01

    First order latent growth curve models (FGMs) estimate change based on a single observed variable and are widely used in longitudinal research. Despite significant advantages, second order latent growth curve models (SGMs), which use multiple indicators, are rarely used in practice, and not all aspects of these models are widely understood. In this article, our goal is to contribute to a deeper understanding of theoretical and practical differences between FGMs and SGMs. We define the latent ...

  12. Quality and Growth Implications of Incremental Costing Models for Distance Education Units

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, C. B.; Gould, Lawrence V.; King, Dennis; Parker, Carl

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to explore quality and growth implications emergent from various incremental costing models applied to distance education units. Prior research relative to costing models and three competing costing models useful in the current distance education environment are discussed. Specifically, the simple costing model, unit…

  13. A geometric growth model interpolating between regular and small-world networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Zhongzhi [Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Zhou, Shuigeng [Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Wang, Zhiyong [Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Shen, Zhen [Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China)

    2007-09-28

    We propose a geometric growth model which interpolates between one-dimensional linear graphs and small-world networks. The model undergoes a transition from large to small worlds. We study the topological characteristics by both theoretical predictions and numerical simulations, which are in good accordance with each other. Our geometrically growing model is a complementarity for the static WS model.

  14. Mathematical modelling of growth of Listeria  monocytogenes in raw chilled pork.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, K; Wang, K; Liu, M; Liu, J; Zhu, L; Zhou, G

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes in naturally contaminated chilled pork. A cocktail of 26 meat-borne L. monocytogenes was inoculated to raw or sterile chilled pork to observe its growth at 4, 10, 16, 22 and 28°C respectively. The growth data were fitted by the Baranyi model and Ratkowsky square-root model. Results showed that the Baranyi model and Ratkowsky square-root model could describe the growth characteristics of L. monocytogenes at different temperatures reasonably well in raw chilled pork (1·0 ≤ Bf ≤ Af ≤ 1·1). Compared with the growth of L. monocytogenes in sterile chilled pork, the background microflora had no impact on the growth parameters of L. monocytogenes, except for the lag phase at low temperature storage. The microbial predictive models developed in this study can be used to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes during natural spoilage, and construct quantitative risk assessments in chilled pork. This study simulated the actual growth of Listeria monocytogenes in chilled pork to the maximum extent, and described its growth characteristics of L. monocytogenes during natural spoilage. This study showed that the background microflora had no impact on the growth parameters of L. monocytogenes, except for the lag phase at low temperature storage. The models developed in this study can be used to predict the growth of L. monocytogenes during refrigerated storage. © 2017 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  15. Growth characteristics of pearl gray guinea fowl as predicted by the Richards, Gompertz, and logistic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahashon, S N; Aggrey, S E; Adefope, N A; Amenyenu, A; Wright, D

    2006-02-01

    This study was undertaken to describe the growth pattern of the pearl gray Guinea fowl. Using BW data from hatch to 22 wk, 3 nonlinear mathematical functions (Richards, Gompertz, and logistic) were used to estimate growth patterns of the pearl gray guinea fowl. The logistic and Gompertz models are a special case of the Richards model, which has a variable point of inflection defined by the shape or growth trajectory parameter, m. The shape parameter m was 1.08 and 0.98 in males and females, respectively, suggesting that the growth pattern of the pearl gray female guinea fowl is Gompertz. The pearl gray guinea fowl exhibited sexual dimorphism for their growth characteristics. From the Gompertz model, the asymptotic BW, growth rate, and age at maximum growth were 1.62 kg, 0.22 kg/wk, and 6.65 wk in males, respectively, and 1.70 kg, 0.19 kg/wk, and 6.70 wk in females, respectively. The ages at maximum growth were 6.65, 6.47, and 8.12 wk for the Richards, Gompertz, and logistic models, respectively. The pearl gray guinea fowl females have a higher asymptotic BW compared with the males. The average asymptotic BW of about 1.57 kg for both sexes predicted by the logistic model was below the average predicted BW from the Richards (1.66 kg) and Gompertz (1.67 kg) models, respectively, at 22 wk of age. The inverse relationship between the asymptotic weight and both relative growth and age at maximum growth of the pearl gray guinea fowl is similar to that of chickens, quail, and ducks. Success in studying the growth characteristics of guinea fowl will contribute to the efforts of genetically improving this least-studied avian species.

  16. Flexible and fixed mathematical models describing growth patterns of chukar partridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aygün, Ali; Narinç, Doǧan

    2016-04-01

    In animal science, the nonlinear regression models for growth curve analysis ofgrowth patterns are separated into two groups called fixed and flexible according to their point of inflection. The aims of this study were to compare fixed and flexible growth functions and to determine the best fit model for the growth data of chukar partridges. With this aim, the growth data of partridges were modeled with widely used models, such as Gompertz, Logistic, Von Bertalanffy as well as the flexible functions, such as, Richards, Janoschek, Levakovich. So as to evaluate growth functions, the R2 (coefficient of determination), adjusted R2 (adjusted coefficient of determination), MSE (mean square error), AIC (Akaike's information criterion) and BIC (Bayesian information criterion) goodness of fit criteria were used. It has been determined that the best fit model from the point of chukar partridge growth data according to mentioned goodness of fit criteria is Janoschek function which has a flexible structure. The Janoschek model is not only important because it has a higher number of parameters with biological meaning than the other functions (the mature weight and initial weight parameters), but also because it was not previously used in the modeling of the chukar partridge growth.

  17. Application of Endogenous Growth Model to the Economy of Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haider Mahmood

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last few decades, governments of developing countries have increasingly viewed foreign direct investment (FDIs as a catalyst for economic growth. This study investigates the impact of FDI on economic growth of Pakistan by using Endogenous Growth Model. Out of a number of variables affecting economic growth, few have been taken into our model e.g. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Domestic Savings, Employed Labour Force, Capital Formation, Human Capital Index and Balance of Trade. The study examines the causality among economic Growth and all variables mentioned above over the period 1972-2005 using Johansen‟s maximum likelihood co-integration test and multivariate Granger causality test developed by Yamamoto and Toda (1995. The results of Granger causality indicated that in the short run, economic growth is caused by FDIs, domestic savings, human capital index, employed labour force and balance of trade.

  18. Constitutive modeling of stress-driven grain growth in nanocrystalline metals

    KAUST Repository

    Gürses, Ercan

    2013-02-08

    In this work, we present a variational multiscale model for grain growth in face-centered cubic nanocrystalline (nc) metals. In particular, grain-growth-induced stress softening and the resulting relaxation phenomena are addressed. The behavior of the polycrystal is described by a conventional Taylor-type averaging scheme in which the grains are treated as two-phase composites consisting of a grain interior phase and a grain boundary-affected zone. Furthermore, a grain-growth law that captures the experimentally observed characteristics of the grain coarsening phenomena is proposed. To this end, the grain size is not taken as constant and varies according to the proposed stress-driven growth law. Several parametric studies are conducted to emphasize the influence of the grain-growth rule on the overall macroscopic response. Finally, the model is shown to provide a good description of the experimentally observed grain-growth-induced relaxation in nc-copper. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  19. A vapor-liquid-solid model for chemical vapor deposition growth of carbon nanotubes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Kaili; Feng, Chen; Liu, Kai; Fan, Shoushan

    2007-01-01

    Although carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with a variety of morphologies have been successfully synthesized, there is no clear physical picture of the growth process. Correspondingly, the growth mechanism is still not clear up to now. Here we suggest a VLS model for the growth process of CNTs, which involves a liquid or liquid-like state catalyst. The basic idea is that, due to the high thermal conductivity and nanometer size of the catalyst and the fast diffusion of carbon atoms in it, both the temperature and the carbon atom distribution across it are uniform. The supersaturation level can be expressed as a function of the carbon concentration and temperature, which determines the nucleation dynamics and growth kinetics. Based on this model, the growth rate equation was obtained to describe the growth kinetics of carbon nanotubes, which shows good accordance with the experimental results.

  20. An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Das, Adrian J.

    2014-01-01

    Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens. The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

  1. Application of the new logistic model to microbial growth prediction in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi

    2011-06-01

    Recently a microbial growth model, the new logistic model, which could precisely describe and predict microbial growth at various patterns of temperature, was developed by the author (Biocontrol Science, 15, 75-80, 2010). The author shows several software programs developed with the model in this review. First, a program that analyzes microbial growth data and generates growth curves fitted to the model was developed. Second, a growth prediction program for Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Vibrio paraheamolyticus [corrected] exposed at various patterns of temperature was made based on experimental data. For V. paraheamolyticus [corrected] a program for bacterial growth under environmental conditions including temperature, salt concentration, and pH was developed. These programs are available free at the Japan Food Industry Center. Furthermore, a method to estimate the temperature at various points on or inside a food exposed to a given temperature was developed by using the measured temperatures of two points on the surface of the food and the heat conduction law. Combining this method with the growth model, a system that predicts microbial growth in a food exposed to various temperature patterns was made. This system could be a prototype of an alert system for microbial food safety.

  2. Growth of the chorioallantoic membrane into a rapid-prototyped model pore system: experiments and mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemon, Greg; Howard, Daniel; Yang, Hongyi; Ratchev, Svetan M; Segal, Joel I; Rose, Felicity R A J; Jensen, Oliver E; Waters, Sarah L; King, John R

    2011-07-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model to describe the growth of tissue into a rapid-prototyped porous scaffold when it is implanted onto the chorioallantoic membrane (CAM). The scaffold was designed to study the effects of the size and shape of pores on tissue growth into conventional tissue engineering scaffolds, and consists of an array of pores each having a pre-specified shape. The experimental observations revealed that the CAM grows through each pore as an intact layer of tissue, provided the width of the pore exceeds a threshold value. Based on these results a mathematical model is described to simulate the growth of the membrane, assuming that the growth is a function of the local isotropic membrane tension. The model predictions are compared against measurements of the extent of membrane growth through the pores as a function of time for pores with different dimensions.

  3. Dynamic predictive model for growth of Salmonella spp. in scrambled egg mix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin; Cepeda, Jihan; Subbiah, Jeyamkondan; Froning, Glenn; Juneja, Vijay K; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan

    2017-06-01

    Liquid egg products can be contaminated with Salmonella spp. during processing. A dynamic model for the growth of Salmonella spp. in scrambled egg mix - high solids (SEM) was developed and validated. SEM was prepared and inoculated with ca. 2 log CFU/mL of a five serovar Salmonella spp. cocktail. Salmonella spp. growth data at isothermal temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, and 47 °C) in SEM were collected. Baranyi model was used (primary model) to fit growth data and the maximum growth rate and lag phase duration for each temperature were determined. A secondary model was developed with maximum growth rate as a function of temperature. The model performance measures, root mean squared error (RMSE, 0.09) and pseudo-R(2) (1.00) indicated good fit for both primary and secondary models. A dynamic model was developed by integrating the primary and secondary models and validated using two sinusoidal temperature profiles, 5-15 °C (low temperature) for 480 h and 10-40 °C (high temperature) for 48 h. The RMSE values for the sinusoidal low and high temperature profiles were 0.47 and 0.42 log CFU/mL, respectively. The model can be used to predict Salmonella spp. growth in case of temperature abuse during liquid egg processing.

  4. Establishing zebrafish as a novel exercise model: swimming economy, swimming-enhanced growth and muscle growth marker gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arjan P Palstra

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Zebrafish has been largely accepted as a vertebrate multidisciplinary model but its usefulness as a model for exercise physiology has been hampered by the scarce knowledge on its swimming economy, optimal swimming speeds and cost of transport. Therefore, we have performed individual and group-wise swimming experiments to quantify swimming economy and to demonstrate the exercise effects on growth in adult zebrafish. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Individual zebrafish (n = 10 were able to swim at a critical swimming speed (U(crit of 0.548±0.007 m s(-1 or 18.0 standard body lengths (BL s(-1. The optimal swimming speed (U(opt at which energetic efficiency is highest was 0.396±0.019 m s(-1 (13.0 BL s(-1 corresponding to 72.26±0.29% of U(crit. The cost of transport at optimal swimming speed (COT(opt was 25.23±4.03 µmol g(-1 m(-1. A group-wise experiment was conducted with zebrafish (n = 83 swimming at U(opt for 6 h day(-1 for 5 days week(-1 for 4 weeks vs. zebrafish (n = 84 that rested during this period. Swimming zebrafish increased their total body length by 5.6% and body weight by 41.1% as compared to resting fish. For the first time, a highly significant exercise-induced growth is demonstrated in adult zebrafish. Expression analysis of a set of muscle growth marker genes revealed clear regulatory roles in relation to swimming-enhanced growth for genes such as growth hormone receptor b (ghrb, insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor a (igf1ra, troponin C (stnnc, slow myosin heavy chain 1 (smyhc1, troponin I2 (tnni2, myosin heavy polypeptide 2 (myhz2 and myostatin (mstnb. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: From the results of our study we can conclude that zebrafish can be used as an exercise model for enhanced growth, with implications in basic, biomedical and applied sciences, such as aquaculture.

  5. Establishing Zebrafish as a Novel Exercise Model: Swimming Economy, Swimming-Enhanced Growth and Muscle Growth Marker Gene Expression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovira, Mireia; Brittijn, Sebastiaan A.; Burgerhout, Erik; van den Thillart, Guido E. E. J. M.; Spaink, Herman P.; Planas, Josep V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Zebrafish has been largely accepted as a vertebrate multidisciplinary model but its usefulness as a model for exercise physiology has been hampered by the scarce knowledge on its swimming economy, optimal swimming speeds and cost of transport. Therefore, we have performed individual and group-wise swimming experiments to quantify swimming economy and to demonstrate the exercise effects on growth in adult zebrafish. Methodology/Principal Findings Individual zebrafish (n = 10) were able to swim at a critical swimming speed (Ucrit) of 0.548±0.007 m s−1 or 18.0 standard body lengths (BL) s−1. The optimal swimming speed (Uopt) at which energetic efficiency is highest was 0.396±0.019 m s−1 (13.0 BL s−1) corresponding to 72.26±0.29% of Ucrit. The cost of transport at optimal swimming speed (COTopt) was 25.23±4.03 µmol g−1 m−1. A group-wise experiment was conducted with zebrafish (n = 83) swimming at Uopt for 6 h day−1 for 5 days week−1 for 4 weeks vs. zebrafish (n = 84) that rested during this period. Swimming zebrafish increased their total body length by 5.6% and body weight by 41.1% as compared to resting fish. For the first time, a highly significant exercise-induced growth is demonstrated in adult zebrafish. Expression analysis of a set of muscle growth marker genes revealed clear regulatory roles in relation to swimming-enhanced growth for genes such as growth hormone receptor b (ghrb), insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor a (igf1ra), troponin C (stnnc), slow myosin heavy chain 1 (smyhc1), troponin I2 (tnni2), myosin heavy polypeptide 2 (myhz2) and myostatin (mstnb). Conclusions/Significance From the results of our study we can conclude that zebrafish can be used as an exercise model for enhanced growth, with implications in basic, biomedical and applied sciences, such as aquaculture. PMID:21217817

  6. Prediction of microbial growth in mixed culture with a competition model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Sakha, Mohammad Z

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of microbial growth in mixed culture was studied with a competition model that we had developed recently. The model, which is composed of the new logistic model and the Lotka-Volterra model, is shown to successfully describe the microbial growth of two species in mixed culture using Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella. With the parameter values of the model obtained from the experimental data on monoculture and mixed culture with two species, it then succeeded in predicting the simultaneous growth of the three species in mixed culture inoculated with various cell concentrations. To our knowledge, it is the first time for a prediction model for multiple (three) microbial species to be reported. The model, which is not built on any premise for specific microorganisms, may become a basic competition model for microorganisms in food and food materials.

  7. Overview to the two-part series: Measurement equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS® short forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryce B. Reeve

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Measurement equivalence across differing socio-demographic groups is essential for valid assessment. This is one of two issues of Psychological Test and Assessment Modeling that contains articles describing methods and substantive findings related to establishing measurement equivalence in self-reported health, mental health and social functioning measures. The articles in this two part series describe analyses of items assessing eight domains: fatigue, depression, anxiety, sleep, pain, physical function, cognitive concerns and social function. Additionally, two overview articles describe the methods and sample characteristics of the data set used in these analyses. An additional article describes the important topic of assessing magnitude and impact of differential item functioning. These articles provide the first strong evidence supporting the measurement equivalence of the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS® short form measures in ethnically, socio-demographically diverse groups, and is a beginning step in meeting the international call for further study of their performance in such groups.

  8. Stokes integral of economic growth. Calculus and the Solow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimkes, Jürgen

    2010-04-01

    Economic growth depends on capital and labor and two-dimensional calculus has been applied to economic theory. This leads to Riemann and Stokes integrals and to the first and second laws of production and growth. The mathematical structure is the same as in thermodynamics, economic properties may be related to physical terms: capital to energy, production to physical work, GDP per capita to temperature, production function to entropy. This is called econophysics. Production, trade and banking may be compared to motors, heat pumps or refrigerators. The Carnot process of the first law creates two levels in each system: cold and hot in physics; buyer and seller, investor and saver, rich and poor in economics. The efficiency rises with the income difference of rich and poor. The results of econophysics are compared to neoclassical theory.

  9. ASSESSMENT OF ANTITUMOR ACTIVITY FOR TUMOR XENOGRAFT STUDIES USING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODELS

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Jianrong

    2011-01-01

    In preclinical tumor xenograft experiments, the antitumor activity of the tested agents is often assessed by endpoints such as tumor doubling time, tumor growth delay (TGD), and log10 cell kill (LCK). In tumor xenograft literature, the values of these endpoints are presented without any statistical inference, which ignores the noise in the experimental data. However, using exponential growth models, these endpoints can be quantified by their growth curve parameters, thus allowing parametric i...

  10. Growth impairment after TBI of leukemia survivors children: a model- based investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Galletto, Chiara; Gliozzi, Antonio; Nucera, Daniele; Bertorello, Nicoletta; Biasin, Eleonora; Corrias, Andrea; Chiabotto, Patrizia; Fagioli, Franca; Guiot, Caterina

    2014-01-01

    Background Children receiving Total Body Irradiation (TBI) in preparation for Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) are at risk for Growth Hormone Deficiency (GHD), which sometimes severely compromises their Final Height (FH). To better represent the impact of such therapies on growth we apply a mathematical model, which accounts both for the gompertzian-like growth trend and the hormone-related ‘spurts’, and evaluate how the parameter values estimated on the children undergoing TBI ...

  11. Stochastic modeling of cell growth with symmetric or asymmetric division

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marantan, Andrew; Amir, Ariel

    2016-07-01

    We consider a class of biologically motivated stochastic processes in which a unicellular organism divides its resources (volume or damaged proteins, in particular) symmetrically or asymmetrically between its progeny. Assuming the final amount of the resource is controlled by a growth policy and subject to additive and multiplicative noise, we derive the recursive integral equation describing the evolution of the resource distribution over subsequent generations and use it to study the properties of stable resource distributions. We find conditions under which a unique stable resource distribution exists and calculate its moments for the class of affine linear growth policies. Moreover, we apply an asymptotic analysis to elucidate the conditions under which the stable distribution (when it exists) has a power-law tail. Finally, we use the results of this asymptotic analysis along with the moment equations to draw a stability phase diagram for the system that reveals the counterintuitive result that asymmetry serves to increase stability while at the same time widening the stable distribution. We also briefly discuss how cells can divide damaged proteins asymmetrically between their progeny as a form of damage control. In the appendixes, motivated by the asymmetric division of cell volume in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we extend our results to the case wherein mother and daughter cells follow different growth policies.

  12. The Analysis of a Mathematical Model Associated to an Economic Growth Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundǎu, O.; Pater, F.; Juratoni, A.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper we consider a version of the Ramsey growth model in infinite and continuous time with logistic population growth, introduced by [2]. In this model, the consumer chooses at any moment in time the level of consumption so as to maximize the global utility given by exponential function. This economical growth model of Ramsey leads to an optimal control problem. We show that the optimal solution of our control problem is the solution of a four differential equation system. We prove that this system has a unique nontrivial steady state equilibrium which is a saddle point with a two dimensional stable manifold.

  13. Modelling Eutectic Growth in Unmodified and Modified Near-Eutectic Al-Si Alloy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiedje, Niels Skat; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Taylor, John A.

    2013-01-01

    growth parameters from the literature that depend on the type of modification (unmodified, Na-modified or Sr-modified) are used to describe differences in growth of the alloys. Modelling results are compared with solidification experiments where an Al-12.5wt%Si alloy was cast in unmodified, Na modified...... and Sr modified forms. The model confirms experimental observations of how modification and alloy composition influence nucleation, growth and finally the size of eutectic cells in the alloys. Modelling results are used to explain how cooling conditions in the casting act together with the nuclei density...

  14. Modelling and predicting growth of psycrotolerant pseudomonads in milk and cottage cheese

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Rios, Veronica; Østergaard, Nina Bjerre; Rosshaug, Per Sand;

    2015-01-01

    /Bioscreen C model included the effect of temperature, pH, NaCl/aw, lactic, sorbic acid and their interaction (Le Marc et al., 2002). Then, the reference growth rate parameter (μref) was fitted to a total of 35 μmax-values from cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. Results: The new models were...... temperature storage conditions. Conclusions: The present study developed and validated mathematical models to predict growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in chilled milk and cottage cheese with cultured cream dressing. The cottage cheese model can be used to evaluate the effect of product reformulations...... successfully validated, based on bias and accuracy factor, for 59 growth curves of psychrotolerant pseudomonads in dairy products. The acceptable simulation zone method showed the new model for cottage cheese to successfully predict growth of psychrotolerant pseudomonads at both constant and dynamic...

  15. Parameterization of European perch Perca fluviatilis length-at-age data using stochastic Gompertz growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troynikov, V S; Gorfine, H K; Ložys, L; Pūtys, Z; Jakubavičiūtė, E; Day, R W

    2011-12-01

    Three stochastic versions of the Gompertz growth model were used to parameterize total length (L(T) )-at-age data for perch Perca fluviatilis, an important target species for commercial and recreational fishers and a food species for predatory fishes and aquatic birds. Each model addresses growth heterogeneity by incorporating random parameters from a specific positive distribution: Weibull, gamma or log-normal. The modelling outputs for each version of the model provide L(T) distributions for selected ages and percentiles of L(T) at age for both males and females. The results highlight the importance of using a stochastic approach and the logistic-like growth pattern for analysing growth data for P. fluviatilis in Curonian Lagoon (Lithuania). Outputs from this modelling can be extended to a stochastic analysis of fish cohort dynamics, incorporating all length-based biological relationships, and the selectivity-related interactions between fish cohorts and fishing gear.

  16. Modelling bacterial growth in quantitative microbiological risk assessment: is it possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauta, Maarten J

    2002-03-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA), predictive modelling and HACCP may be used as tools to increase food safety and can be integrated fruitfully for many purposes. However, when QMRA is applied for public health issues like the evaluation of the status of public health, existing predictive models may not be suited to model bacterial growth. In this context, precise quantification of risks is more important than in the context of food manufacturing alone. In this paper, the modular process risk model (MPRM) is briefly introduced as a QMRA modelling framework. This framework can be used to model the transmission of pathogens through any food pathway, by assigning one of six basic processes (modules) to each of the processing steps. Bacterial growth is one of these basic processes. For QMRA, models of bacterial growth need to be expressed in terms of probability, for example to predict the probability that a critical concentration is reached within a certain amount of time. In contrast, available predictive models are developed and validated to produce point estimates of population sizes and therefore do not fit with this requirement. Recent experience from a European risk assessment project is discussed to illustrate some of the problems that may arise when predictive growth models are used in QMRA. It is suggested that a new type of predictive models needs to be developed that incorporates modelling of variability and uncertainty in growth.

  17. Pre-growth mortality of Abies cilicica trees and mortality models performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carus, Serdar

    2010-05-01

    In this study, we compared tree-growth rates (basal area increment) from recently dead and living Taurus fir (Abies cilicica Carr.) trees in the Kovada lake Forest of Isparta, Turkey. For each dead tree, tree-growth rates were analyzed for the presence of pre-death growth depressions in the study area (number of sample plots = 11) in 2006. However, we compared both the magnitude and rate of growth prior to death to a control (living) group of trees. Basal area increment (BAI) averaged substantially less during the last 10 years before death than for control trees. Trees that died started diverging in growth, on average, 50-60 years before death. About 18% of trees that died had chronically slow growth, 46% had pronounced declines in growth, whereas 36% had good growth up to death. However, tree-ring-based growth patterns of dead and living Taurus fir trees were compared and used 12 mortality models that were derived using logistic regression from growth patterns of tree-ring series as predictor variables. The four models with the highest overall performance correctly classified 43.8-56.3% of all dead trees and 75.0-87.5% of all living trees, and they predicted 25.0-43.8% of all dead trees to die within 0-15 years prior to the actual year of death.

  18. Small doses, big troubles: modeling growth dynamics of organisms affecting microalgal production cultures in closed photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forehead, Hugh I; O'Kelly, Charles J

    2013-02-01

    The destruction of mass cultures of microalgae by biological contamination of culture medium is a pervasive and expensive problem, in industry and research. A mathematical model has been formulated that attempts to explain contaminant growth dynamics in closed photobioreactors (PBRs). The model simulates an initial growth phase without PBR dilution, followed by a production phase in which culture is intermittently removed. Contaminants can be introduced at any of these stages. The model shows how exponential growth from low initial inocula can lead to "explosive" growth in the population of contaminants, appearing days to weeks after inoculation. Principal influences are contaminant growth rate, PBR dilution rate, and the size of initial contaminant inoculum. Predictions corresponded closely with observed behavior of two contaminants, Uronema sp. and Neoparamoeba sp., found in operating PBRs. A simple, cheap and effective protocol was developed for short-term prediction of contamination in PBRs, using microscopy and archived samples.

  19. Comparing non-linear mathematical models to describe growth of different animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jhony Tiago Teleken

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study was to compare the goodness of fit of five non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Richards and von Bertalanffy in different animals. It also aimed to evaluate the influence of the shape parameter on the growth curve. To accomplish this task, published growth data of 14 different groups of animals were used and four goodness of fit statistics were adopted: coefficient of determination (R2, root mean square error (RMSE, Akaike information criterion (AIC and Bayesian information criterion (BIC. In general, the Richards growth equation provided better fits to experimental data than the other models. However, for some animals, different models exhibited better performance. It was obtained a possible interpretation for the shape parameter, in such a way that can provide useful insights to predict animal growth behavior.

  20. Biofilm growth in porous media: experiments, computational modeling at the porescale, and upscaling

    CERN Document Server

    Peszynska, Malgorzata; Iltis, Gabriel; Schlueter, Steffen; Wildenschild, Dorthe

    2015-01-01

    Biofilm growth changes many physical properties of porous media such as porosity, permeability and mass transport parameters. The growth depends on various environmental conditions, and in particular, on flow rates. Modeling the evolution of such properties is difficult both at the porescale where the phase morphology can be distinguished, as well as during upscaling to the corescale effective properties. Experimental data on biofilm growth is also limited because its collection can interfere with the growth, while imaging itself presents challenges. In this paper we combine insight from imaging, experiments, and numerical simulations and visualization. The experimental dataset is based on glass beads domain inoculated by biomass which is subjected to various flow conditions promoting the growth of biomass and the appearance of a biofilm phase. The domain is imaged and the imaging data is used directly by a computational model for flow and transport. The results of the computational flow model are upscaled to...

  1. A three-dimensional cellular automaton model for simulation of dendritic growth of magnesium alloy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mengwu WU; Shoumei XIONG

    2012-01-01

    A numerical model based on the cellular automaton method for the three-dimensional simulation of dendritic growth of magnesium alloy was developed.The growth kinetics was calculated from the complete solution of the transport equations.By constructing a three-dimensional anisotropy model with the cubic CA cells,simulation of dendritic growth of magnesium alloy with six-fold symmetry in the basal plane was achieved.The model was applied to simulate the equiaxed dendritic growth and columnar dendritic growth under directional solidification,and its capability was addressed by comparing the simulated results to experimental results and those in the previously published works.Meanwhile,the three-dimensional simulated results were also compared with that of in two dimensions,offering a deep insight into the microstructure formation of magnesium alloy during solidification.

  2. Model Structure Indentification and the Growth of Knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beck, M.B.; Lin, Z.; Stigter, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter honors Peter, then, in recounting my career-long experience (1970–2010) of staring down the devilishly difficult: the problem of model structure identification—of using models for discovery. I still regard this matter as one of the grand challenges of environmental modeling (Beck et

  3. GROWTH CHARACTERS AND MODEL OF PYROLYTIC CARBON IN CHEMICAL VAPOR INFILTRATION PROCESS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Chemical Vapor Infiltration (CVI) processes are the essential techniques for fabrication of high performance carbon-carbon composites. Based on the polarized light and scanning electron analysis, the authors study the micro-morphology and texture characteristics of pyrolytic carbon deposited in CVI process, as well as the growth behavior of pyrolytic carbon. The research shows that Rough Laminar (RL) texture has the hierarchical and self-similar structural features, which reflects the stage-growth and self-similar behavior during the growth course of pyrolytic carbon. According to the two growth features, a laminated growth model of pyrolytic carbon is proposed with the concept of Cone-Growth Units (CGU). The laminated growth model can provide a fine description for the growth course of RL pyrolytic carbon. The model indicates that formation, developing and combination of local high-order structures (such as CGU structures) are the essential factors for the growth of RL texture. Smooth Laminar (SL) texture and ISO carbon come into being with long-range orderliness and isotropy structure respectively, which no local high-orderliness intermediate involves in.

  4. An impedance response model for inhibitory effect of antibiotics on bacterial growth in biometallurgy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陶菡; 魏万之; 张书芬; 张进忠; 毛友安

    2004-01-01

    An impedance response model reflecting the inhibitory effect of antibiotics on bacterial growth in biometallurgy was established. Three inhibition parameters, i.e. the maximum amount inhibitory constant of the bacterial growth(K1 ), the maximum specific growth inhibitory constant(K2 ) and the lag time inhibitory constant(K3 ), were included in the model. The influence of these parameters on the response curve was discussed in detail. By fitting experimental data towards the proposed model, three growth parameters (A, μm and λ) in the presence of antibiotics were gained and compared. The results show that the growth ability of bacteria is decreased due to the influence of antibiotics. The experimental and fitted curves have goodness-of-fit in the range of 0. 987 - 1. 008. Moreover, the kinetic growth parameters obtained from this model are closed to those from the Logistics popular growth model.These results show that the proposed model is validity to reflect the inhibitory effect of antibiotics on bacteria.

  5. Modelling mussel growth in ecosystems with low suspended matter loads using a Dynamic Energy Budget approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, P.; Fernández-Reiriz, M. J.; Labarta, U.

    2012-01-01

    The environmental and the economic importance of shellfish stimulated a great deal of studies on their physiology over the last decades, with many attempts to model their growth. The first models developed to simulate bivalve growth were predominantly based on the Scope For Growth ( SFG) paradigm. In the last years there has been a shift towards the Dynamic Energy Budget ( DEB) paradigm. The general objective of this work is contributing to the evaluation of different approaches to simulate bivalve growth in low seston waters by: (i) implementing a model to simulate mussel growth in low suspended matter ecosystems based on the DEB theory (Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic and energy mass budgets in biological systems, Cambridge University Press); (ii) comparing and discussing different approaches to simulate feeding processes, in the light of recently published works both on experimental physiology and physiology modeling; (iii) comparing and discussing results obtained with a model based on EMMY ( Scholten and Smaal, 1998). The model implemented allowed to successfully simulate mussel feeding and shell length growth in two different Galician Rias. Obtained results together with literature data suggest that modeling of bivalve feeding should incorporate physiologic feed-backs related with food digestibility. In spite of considerable advances in bivalve modeling a number of issues is yet to be resolved, with emphasis on the way food sources are represented and feeding processes formulated.

  6. Predictive model for growth of Clostridium perfringens during cooling of cooked uncured beef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juneja, Vijay K; Marks, Harry; Thippareddi, Harshavardhan

    2008-02-01

    This paper considers growth models including one based on Baranyi's equations for growth and the other based on the logistic function. Using a common approach for constructing dynamic models for predicting Clostridium perfringens growth in ready-to-eat uncured beef during cooling, there was no appreciable difference between the models' predictions when the population of cells was within the lag or exponential phases of growth. The developed models can be used for designing safe cooling processes; however, the discrepancies between predicted and observed growths obtained in this study, together with discrepancies reported in other papers using the same, or similar methodology as used in this paper, point to a possible inadequacy of the derived models. In particular, the appropriateness of the methodology depends on the appropriateness of using estimated growth kinetics obtained from experiments conducted in isothermal environments for determining coefficients of differential equations that are used for predicting growth in constantly changing (dynamic) environments. The coefficients are interpreted as instantaneous specific rates of change that are independent of prior history. However, there is no known scientific reason that would imply the truth of this assumption. Incorporating a different, less restrictive assumption, allowing for a dependency on the prior history of cells for these kinetic parameters, might lead to models that provide more accurate estimates of growth. For example, a cooling scenario of 54.4-27 degrees C in 1.5h, the average predicted and observed log(10) relative growths were 1.1log(10) and 0.66log(10), respectively, a difference of 0.44log(10,) whereas, when assuming a particular dependency of history, the predicted value was 0.8log(10). More research is needed to characterize the behavior of growth kinetic parameters relative to prior history in dynamic environments.

  7. Pore-network modeling of solute transport and biofilm growth in porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qin, Chao Zhong; Hassanizadeh, S. Majid

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a pore-network (PN) model for solute transport and biofilm growth in porous media was developed. Compared to previous studies of biofilm growth, it has two new features. First, the constructed pore network gives a better representation of a porous medium. Second, instead of using a con

  8. Modelling government investment and economic growth : A review and some new evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturm, JE; De Haan, J; Kuper, GH; Shibata, H; Ihori, T

    1998-01-01

    This paper reviews empirical research on the impact of government capital spending on economic growth. The pros and cons of three different ways to model the relationship between public investment and economic growth using time series (or panel data) are briefly reviewed, while some estimation resul

  9. The Impact of Misspecifying Class-Specific Residual Variances in Growth Mixture Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enders, Craig K.; Tofighi, Davood

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of misspecifying a growth mixture model (GMM) by assuming that Level-1 residual variances are constant across classes, when they do, in fact, vary in each subpopulation. Misspecification produced bias in the within-class growth trajectories and variance components, and estimates were…

  10. Modelling the growth of methane-oxidizing bacteria in a fixed biofilm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bilbo, Carl Morten; Arvin, Erik; Holst, Helle

    1992-01-01

    Methane-oxidizing bacteria were grown in a fixed biofilm reactor in order to study their ability to degrade chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons. Focus is on the growth behaviour of the mixed culture. The growth is described by a model that includes methanotrophic bacteria in the active biomass...

  11. A two-substrate Michaelis-Menten model for the growth of self-replicating polymers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, R

    1987-10-07

    A two-substrate Michaelis-Menten model is proposed for the growth of autocatalytic self-replicating polymers. Selective growth depends on the existence of two complementary pairs of monomers. Discrimination among sequences results from different products of binding constants, KCGnKAUm. The results support an earlier renormalization group treatment (Ferreira & Tsallis, 1985).

  12. To Save or to Consume: Linking Growth Theory with the Keynesian Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Yun-kwong

    2007-01-01

    In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, "Should we save or should we consume?" In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in…

  13. Proces-based modeling of the overflow induced growth of erosional channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuan, T.Q.; Stive, M.J.F.; Verhagen, H.J.; Visser, P.J.

    2008-01-01

    A new process-based approach is introduced for a more efficient computation of the overflow-induced growth of an erosional channel in a noncohesive homogeneous narrow landmass such as the breach growth in a sand-dike. The approach is easy to incorporate in a 1D/2DV morphodynamic model to compute the

  14. Exploring Gains in Reading and Mathematics Achievement among Regular and Exceptional Students Using Growth Curve Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Tacksoo; Davison, Mark L.; Long, Jeffrey D.; Chan, Chi-Keung; Heistad, David

    2013-01-01

    Using four-wave longitudinal reading and mathematics data (4th to 7th grades) from a large urban school district, growth curve modeling was used as a tool for examining three research questions: Are achievement gaps closing in reading and mathematics? What are the associations between prior-achievement and growth across the reading and mathematics…

  15. Growth hormone stimulates bone healing in a critical-sized bone defect model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theyse, L. F. H.; Oosterlaken-Dijksterhuis, M. A.; van Doorn, J.; Dhert, W. J. A.; Hazewinkel, H. A. W.

    2006-01-01

    Growth hormone plays an important role in bone metabolism. Treating bone deficits is a major topic in orthopaedic surgery. Our hypothesis was that local continuous growth hormone administration stimulates bone healing in a canine critical-sized bone defect model. Bone formation in the defects was qu

  16. Segregated mathematical model for growth of anchorage-dependent MDCK cells in microcarrier culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möhler, Lars; Bock, Andreas; Reichl, Udo

    2008-01-01

    To describe the growth behavior of anchorage-dependent mammalian cells in microcarrier systems, various approaches comprising deterministic and stochastic single cell models as well as automaton-based models have been presented in the past. The growth restriction of these often contact-inhibited cells by spatial effects is described at levels with different complexity but for the most part not taking into account their metabolic background. Compared to suspension cell lines these cells have a comparatively long lag phase required for attachment and start of proliferation on the microcarrier. After an initial phase of exponential growth only a moderate specific growth rate is achieved due to restrictions in space available for cell growth, limiting medium components, and accumulation of growth inhibitors. Here, a basic deterministic unstructured segregated cell model for growth of Madin Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cells used in influenza vaccine production is described. Four classes of cells are considered: cells on microcarriers, cells in suspension, dead cells, and lysed cells. Based on experimental data, cell attachment and detachment is taken explicitly into account. The model allows simulation of the overall growth behavior in microcarrier culture, including the lag phase. In addition, it describes the time course of uptake and release of key metabolites and the identification of parameters relevant for the design and optimization of vaccine manufacturing processes.

  17. Pore-network modeling of solute transport and biofilm growth in porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qin, Chao Zhong; Hassanizadeh, S. Majid

    2015-01-01

    In this work, a pore-network (PN) model for solute transport and biofilm growth in porous media was developed. Compared to previous studies of biofilm growth, it has two new features. First, the constructed pore network gives a better representation of a porous medium. Second, instead of using a

  18. Citations, References and the Growth of Scientific Literature: A Model of Dynamic Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauze, Tadeusz K.; Hillinger, Claude

    1971-01-01

    A mathematical model is presented which explains the observed exponential growth rates of citations and references in a scientific discipline. The independent variables are the growth rate of the number of articles published and the decay rate of citation of old literature. (13 references) (Author)

  19. Food conversion efficiency and the von Bertalanffy growth function 1: a modification of Pauly's model

    OpenAIRE

    Temming, A.

    1994-01-01

    A simple modification of Pauly's model for relating food conversion efficiency (K sub(1)) and body weight is proposed. The key parameter is an index to how efficiently food can be absorbed; the other parameter is related to the surface-limiting growth, an important component of von Bertalanff's and Pauly's theories of fish growth.

  20. Confidence interval for number of population in dynamical stochastic exponential population growth models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morteza Khodabin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the confidence interval for the solution of stochastic exponential population growth model where the so-called parameter, population growth rate is not completely definite and it depends on some random environmental effects is obtained. We use Iran population data in the period 1921-2006 as an example.