Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

Science.gov (United States)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

2010-01-01

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

Leaky-box approximation to the fractional diffusion model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uchaikin, V V; Sibatov, R T; Saenko, V V

2013-01-01

Two models based on fractional differential equations for galactic cosmic ray diffusion are applied to the leaky-box approximation. One of them (Lagutin-Uchaikin, 2000) assumes a finite mean free path of cosmic ray particles, another one (Lagutin-Tyumentsev, 2004) uses distribution with infinite mean distance between collision with magnetic clouds, when the trajectories have form close to ballistic. Calculations demonstrate that involving boundary conditions is incompatible with spatial distributions given by the second model.

A comparison between skeleton and bounding box models for falling direction recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Narupiyakul, Lalita; Srisrisawang, Nitikorn

2017-12-01

Falling is an injury that can lead to a serious medical condition in every range of the age of people. However, in the case of elderly, the risk of serious injury is much higher. Due to the fact that one way of preventing serious injury is to treat the fallen person as soon as possible, several works attempted to implement different algorithms to recognize the fall. Our work compares the performance of two models based on features extraction: (i) Body joint data (Skeleton Data) which are the joint's positions in 3 axes and (ii) Bounding box (Box-size Data) covering all body joints. Machine learning algorithms that were chosen are Decision Tree (DT), Naïve Bayes (NB), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Voting Classification (VC), and Gradient boosting (GB). The results illustrate that the models trained with Skeleton data are performed far better than those trained with Box-size data (with an average accuracy of 94-81% and 80-75%, respectively). KNN shows the best performance in both Body joint model and Bounding box model. In conclusion, KNN with Body joint model performs the best among the others.

NASA's Climate in a Box: Desktop Supercomputing for Open Scientific Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Wojcik, G. S.; Seablom, M. S.; Lee, T. J.; McConaughy, G. R.; Syed, R.; Oloso, A.; Kemp, E. M.; Greenseid, J.; Smith, R.

2009-12-01

NASA's High Performance Computing Portfolio in cooperation with its Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program intends to make its climate and earth science models more accessible to a larger community. A key goal of this effort is to open the model development and validation process to the scientific community at large such that a natural selection process is enabled and results in a more efficient scientific process. One obstacle to others using NASA models is the complexity of the models and the difficulty in learning how to use them. This situation applies not only to scientists who regularly use these models but also non-typical users who may want to use the models such as scientists from different domains, policy makers, and teachers. Another obstacle to the use of these models is that access to high performance computing (HPC) accounts, from which the models are implemented, can be restrictive with long wait times in job queues and delays caused by an arduous process of obtaining an account, especially for foreign nationals. This project explores the utility of using desktop supercomputers in providing a complete ready-to-use toolkit of climate research products to investigators and on demand access to an HPC system. One objective of this work is to pre-package NASA and NOAA models so that new users will not have to spend significant time porting the models. In addition, the prepackaged toolkit will include tools, such as workflow, visualization, social networking web sites, and analysis tools, to assist users in running the models and analyzing the data. The system architecture to be developed will allow for automatic code updates for each user and an effective means with which to deal with data that are generated. We plan to investigate several desktop systems, but our work to date has focused on a Cray CX1. Currently, we are investigating the potential capabilities of several non-traditional development environments. While most NASA and NOAA models are

Two high-mobility group box domains act together to underwind and kink DNA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sánchez-Giraldo, R.; Acosta-Reyes, F. J. [Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Malarkey, C. S. [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO 80045 (United States); Saperas, N. [Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona (Spain); Churchill, M. E. A., E-mail: mair.churchill@ucdenver.edu [University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, CO 80045 (United States); Campos, J. L., E-mail: mair.churchill@ucdenver.edu [Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona (Spain)

2015-06-30

The crystal structure of HMGB1 box A bound to an unmodified AT-rich DNA fragment is reported at a resolution of 2 Å. A new mode of DNA recognition for HMG box proteins is found in which two box A domains bind in an unusual configuration generating a highly kinked DNA structure. High-mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) is an essential and ubiquitous DNA architectural factor that influences a myriad of cellular processes. HMGB1 contains two DNA-binding domains, box A and box B, which have little sequence specificity but have remarkable abilities to underwind and bend DNA. Although HMGB1 box A is thought to be responsible for the majority of HMGB1–DNA interactions with pre-bent or kinked DNA, little is known about how it recognizes unmodified DNA. Here, the crystal structure of HMGB1 box A bound to an AT-rich DNA fragment is reported at a resolution of 2 Å. Two box A domains of HMGB1 collaborate in an unusual configuration in which the Phe37 residues of both domains stack together and intercalate the same CG base pair, generating highly kinked DNA. This represents a novel mode of DNA recognition for HMGB proteins and reveals a mechanism by which structure-specific HMG boxes kink linear DNA.

Two high-mobility group box domains act together to underwind and kink DNA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sánchez-Giraldo, R.; Acosta-Reyes, F. J.; Malarkey, C. S.; Saperas, N.; Churchill, M. E. A.; Campos, J. L.

2015-01-01

The crystal structure of HMGB1 box A bound to an unmodified AT-rich DNA fragment is reported at a resolution of 2 Å. A new mode of DNA recognition for HMG box proteins is found in which two box A domains bind in an unusual configuration generating a highly kinked DNA structure. High-mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) is an essential and ubiquitous DNA architectural factor that influences a myriad of cellular processes. HMGB1 contains two DNA-binding domains, box A and box B, which have little sequence specificity but have remarkable abilities to underwind and bend DNA. Although HMGB1 box A is thought to be responsible for the majority of HMGB1–DNA interactions with pre-bent or kinked DNA, little is known about how it recognizes unmodified DNA. Here, the crystal structure of HMGB1 box A bound to an AT-rich DNA fragment is reported at a resolution of 2 Å. Two box A domains of HMGB1 collaborate in an unusual configuration in which the Phe37 residues of both domains stack together and intercalate the same CG base pair, generating highly kinked DNA. This represents a novel mode of DNA recognition for HMGB proteins and reveals a mechanism by which structure-specific HMG boxes kink linear DNA

Climate Engineering: avoiding Pandora's box through research and governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Honegger, Matthias; Michaelowa, Axel; Butzengeiger-Geyer, Sonja

2011-07-01

Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, and emission reduction efforts are increasingly seen as inadequate to stay below the 2 degrees C threshold agreed internationally, but countries shy away from shouldering the burden of emissions abatement. Therefore, in the next decades an increase in meteorological extreme events is increasingly likely to trigger public pressure to find quick solutions to halt climate change. Climate engineering (CE), especially Solar Radiation Management (SRM) proposals, will be attractive in this context. But SRM could turn into a Pandora's Box if not managed carefully. A sudden political demand for implementing CE could end in disaster if pressure leads to premature deployment. It is vital to establish a solid understanding of CE with all its indirect effects as well as significant acceptance and thus legitimacy. Since for many CE options, the risks seem negatively correlated to costs, a global research coordination effort is needed that is fully transparent and avoids biases introduced by interest groups. The IPCC would be the right forum to harness this research. Research should go hand in hand with the development of new norms and international approaches in monitoring, similar to the case of nuclear weapons or terrorism. It is time for climate engineering to enter the discourse on climate change mitigation - in a research-led, transparent and conscientiously governed manner.(Author)

Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality using two Models: HAWQS and US Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydr...

Loads experiments study on two-story RC box and truncated conical walls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asega, H.; Iizuka, S.; Kurihara, I.; Kubo, T.

1987-01-01

The failure modes of the two specimens were the sliding shear failure. The two specimens showed almost equal deformation at the maximum shear strength. The ratio of the flexural deformation in the deformation of the truncated conical was larger than that of the box wall. The ratio of the shear deformation in the deformation of the two-story RC box wall was larger than that of the flexural deformation. (orig./HP)

Examining Interior Grid Nudging Techniques Using Two-Way Nesting in the WRF Model for Regional Climate Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

This study evaluates interior nudging techniques using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional climate modeling over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using a two-way nested configuration. NCEP–Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Pro...

Two-Black Box Concept for Warhead Verification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bates, Cameron Russell [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Frame, Katherine Chiyoko [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Mckigney, Edward Allen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Morag Kristin [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-03-06

We have created a possible solution to meeting the requirements of certification/authentication while still employing complicated criteria. Technical solutions to protecting information from the host in an inspection environment needs to be assessed by those with specific expertise but, LANL can still study the verification problem. The two-black box framework developed provides another potential solution to the confidence vs. certification paradox.

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Rummukainen, M.; Räisänen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willén, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C.

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results.

A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rummukainen, M.; Raeisaenen, J.; Bringfelt, B.; Ullerstig, A.; Omstedt, A.; Willen, U.; Hansson, U.; Jones, C. [Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2001-03-01

This work presents a regional climate model, the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric model (RCA1), recently developed from the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM). The changes in the HIRLAM parametrizations, necessary for climate-length integrations, are described. A regional Baltic Sea ocean model and a modeling system for the Nordic inland lake systems have been coupled with RCA1. The coupled system has been used to downscale 10-year time slices from two different general circulation model (GCM) simulations to provide high-resolution regional interpretation of large-scale modeling. A selection of the results from the control runs, i.e. the present-day climate simulations, are presented: large-scale free atmospheric fields, the surface temperature and precipitation results and results for the on-line simulated regional ocean and lake surface climates. The regional model modifies the surface climate description compared to the GCM simulations, but it is also substantially affected by the biases in the GCM simulations. The regional model also improves the representation of the regional ocean and the inland lakes, compared to the GCM results. (orig.)

Reconciling White-Box and Black-Box Perspectives on Behavioral Self-adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio

2015-01-01

This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect to an environ......This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect...... to an environment whenever the system is able to satisfy its goals irrespectively of the environment perturbations. Modeling and programming engineering activities often take a white-box perspective: A system is equipped with suitable adaptation mechanisms and its behavior is classified as adaptive depending...

A comparison of simulation results from two terrestrial carbon cycle models using three climate data sets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ito, Akihiko; Sasai, Takahiro

2006-01-01

This study addressed how different climate data sets influence simulations of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. For the period 1982-2001, we compared the results of simulations based on three climate data sets (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ERA40) employed in meteorological, ecological and biogeochemical studies and two different models (BEAMS and Sim-CYCLE). The models differed in their parameterizations of photosynthetic and phenological processes but used the same surface climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, temperature and precipitation), vegetation, soil and topography data. The three data sets give different climatic conditions, especially for shortwave radiation, in terms of long-term means, linear trends and interannual variability. Consequently, the simulation results for global net primary productivity varied by 16%-43% only from differences in the climate data sets, especially in these regions where the shortwave radiation data differed markedly: differences in the climate data set can strongly influence simulation results. The differences among the climate data set and between the two models resulted in slightly different spatial distribution and interannual variability in the net ecosystem carbon budget. To minimize uncertainty, we should pay attention to the specific climate data used. We recommend developing an accurate standard climate data set for simulation studies

The water balance of the urban Salt Lake Valley: a multiple-box model validated by observations

Science.gov (United States)

Stwertka, C.; Strong, C.

2012-12-01

A main focus of the recently awarded National Science Foundation (NSF) EPSCoR Track-1 research project "innovative Urban Transitions and Arid-region Hydro-sustainability (iUTAH)" is to quantify the primary components of the water balance for the Wasatch region, and to evaluate their sensitivity to climate change and projected urban development. Building on the multiple-box model that we developed and validated for carbon dioxide (Strong et al 2011), mass balance equations for water in the atmosphere and surface are incorporated into the modeling framework. The model is used to determine how surface fluxes, ground-water transport, biological fluxes, and meteorological processes regulate water cycling within and around the urban Salt Lake Valley. The model is used to evaluate the hypotheses that increased water demand associated with urban growth in Salt Lake Valley will (1) elevate sensitivity to projected climate variability and (2) motivate more attentive management of urban water use and evaporative fluxes.

VBSM: VCC-Based Black Box Service Model with Enhanced Data Integrity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Won Min Kang

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Recently, intelligent transport systems have been applied to vehicle cloud environments. Such technology is especially useful for the systematic management of road traffic. Moreover, automobiles are increasingly equipped with a black box for accident prevention and preservation of evidence. Vehicle black boxes have become mandatory because black box images and voice data have served as forensic evidence in courts. However, the data from black boxes can be forged or modified by man-in-the-middle (MITM attacks and message hijacking. In this paper, we propose a vehicle cloud computing-based black box service model that can provide integrity for black box data through digital signatures in vehicle cloud computing (VCC environments. Our proposed model protects against MITM attacks and message hijacking using only a hash value and digital signature. Moreover, a mirroring technique (RAID 1 provides backup and recovery to protect the data from a traffic accident.

Thermodynamic modeling of small scale biomass gasifiers: Development and assessment of the ''Multi-Box'' approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Vakalis, Stergios; Patuzzi, Francesco; Baratieri, Marco

2016-04-01

Modeling can be a powerful tool for designing and optimizing gasification systems. Modeling applications for small scale/fixed bed biomass gasifiers have been interesting due to their increased commercial practices. Fixed bed gasifiers are characterized by a wide range of operational conditions and are multi-zoned processes. The reactants are distributed in different phases and the products from each zone influence the following process steps and thus the composition of the final products. The present study aims to improve the conventional 'Black-Box' thermodynamic modeling by means of developing multiple intermediate 'boxes' that calculate two phase (solid-vapor) equilibriums in small scale gasifiers. Therefore the model is named ''Multi-Box''. Experimental data from a small scale gasifier have been used for the validation of the model. The returned results are significantly closer with the actual case study measurements in comparison to single-stage thermodynamic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

CERN Document Server

Russell, David W

2012-01-01

Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

Modelling of airflow in a closed simulation box with regard to atmospheric optical link

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hajek Lukas

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Article is dealing with defining of mathematical turbulent air flow numerical model in the laboratory box with help of ANSYS Fluent software application. The paper describes real measurement of parameters of mechanical turbulences created by high-speed ventilator mounted on the simulation box. The real measurement took place in two planes perpendicular to each other, input and output slot. Subsequently the simulation of mechanical air flow was performed by the help of k-ε and k-ω turbulent models. The results of individual simulations were evaluated by statistical model in the same points, planes respectively, in which the real measurement was made. Other simulation was dealing with effect of heaters inside of closed laboratory box with regards to optical beam degradation. During real measurement was performed temperature point measurement by probe placed inside of the box. The probe was recording air temperature every one second during seven minutes long measurement. The results comparison of simulated and measured data was made in the end. The maximal temperature reached approximately 50 °C in both cases. Also the air flow character in dependence on the number of hot-air extraction ventilators was monitored.

A Box-Cox normal model for response times.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein Entink, R H; van der Linden, W J; Fox, J-P

2009-11-01

The log-transform has been a convenient choice in response time modelling on test items. However, motivated by a dataset of the Medical College Admission Test where the lognormal model violated the normality assumption, the possibilities of the broader class of Box-Cox transformations for response time modelling are investigated. After an introduction and an outline of a broader framework for analysing responses and response times simultaneously, the performance of a Box-Cox normal model for describing response times is investigated using simulation studies and a real data example. A transformation-invariant implementation of the deviance information criterium (DIC) is developed that allows for comparing model fit between models with different transformation parameters. Showing an enhanced description of the shape of the response time distributions, its application in an educational measurement context is discussed at length.

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Han; Zak, Michail

2007-01-01

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Application of Box-Behnken design for the removal of two organophosphorus pesticides by used Tea leaves

Science.gov (United States)

Albanis, Triantafyllos; Valileios, Sakkas; Islam, Azharul M.

2016-04-01

Removal of two organophosphorus pesticides bromophos methyl [BM: O, O- dimethyl - O - (2, 5-dichloro -4 bromophenyl) phosphorothioate] and quinalphos [QP: O, O-diethyl O-2-quinoxalinyl phosphorothioate] on used tea leaves were studied by batch equilibration method. Adsorption isotherms were conformed well to Langmuir for quinalphos and Freundlich equation for bromophos methyl. The kinetic data fitted well by the pseudo second order model for both pesticides. Box-Behnken design was successfully employed for experimental design and analysis of results. The interactions of pH, initial concentration and adsorbent dose on two pesticides adsorption by used tea leaves were investigated by this model. The optimum pH, initial concentration and adsorbent dose with their corresponding removal efficiency were found to be 7.88, 11.94 mg L-1, 0.37g and 100% for bromophos methyl respectively, for quinalphos 8.72, 6.44 mg L-1, 0.39g and 93.98% respectively. Keywords: Box-Behnken; quinalphos; bromophos methyl; Kinetics; used tea leaves

BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

Science.gov (United States)

Knote, Christoph; Barré, Jérôme; Eckl, Max

2018-02-01

The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX) is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX) to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP), this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

BEATBOX v1.0: Background Error Analysis Testbed with Box Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Knote

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The Background Error Analysis Testbed (BEATBOX is a new data assimilation framework for box models. Based on the BOX Model eXtension (BOXMOX to the Kinetic Pre-Processor (KPP, this framework allows users to conduct performance evaluations of data assimilation experiments, sensitivity analyses, and detailed chemical scheme diagnostics from an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE point of view. The BEATBOX framework incorporates an observation simulator and a data assimilation system with the possibility of choosing ensemble, adjoint, or combined sensitivities. A user-friendly, Python-based interface allows for the tuning of many parameters for atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation research as well as for educational purposes, for example observation error, model covariances, ensemble size, perturbation distribution in the initial conditions, and so on. In this work, the testbed is described and two case studies are presented to illustrate the design of a typical OSSE experiment, data assimilation experiments, a sensitivity analysis, and a method for diagnosing model errors. BEATBOX is released as an open source tool for the atmospheric chemistry and data assimilation communities.

A new set of ESTs from chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. embryo reveals two novel F-box genes, CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM, with potential roles in seed development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shefali Gupta

Full Text Available Considering the economic importance of chickpea (C. arietinum L. seeds, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying seed development for which a cDNA library was constructed from 6 day old chickpea embryos. A total of 8,186 ESTs were obtained from which 4,048 high quality ESTs were assembled into 1,480 unigenes that majorly encoded genes involved in various metabolic and regulatory pathways. Of these, 95 ESTs were found to be involved in ubiquitination related protein degradation pathways and 12 ESTs coded specifically for putative F-box proteins. Differential transcript accumulation of these putative F-box genes was observed in chickpea tissues as evidenced by quantitative real-time PCR. Further, to explore the role of F-box proteins in chickpea seed development, two F-box genes were selected for molecular characterization. These were named as CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM depending on their C-terminal domains, PP2 and LysM, respectively. Their highly conserved structures led us to predict their target substrates. Subcellular localization experiment revealed that CarF-box_PP2 was localized in the cytoplasm and CarF-box_LysM was localized in the nucleus. We demonstrated their physical interactions with SKP1 protein, which validated that they function as F-box proteins in the formation of SCF complexes. Sequence analysis of their promoter regions revealed certain seed specific cis-acting elements that may be regulating their preferential transcript accumulation in the seed. Overall, the study helped in expanding the EST database of chickpea, which was further used to identify two novel F-box genes having a potential role in seed development.

A new set of ESTs from chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) embryo reveals two novel F-box genes, CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM, with potential roles in seed development.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Shefali; Garg, Vanika; Bhatia, Sabhyata

2015-01-01

Considering the economic importance of chickpea (C. arietinum L.) seeds, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying seed development for which a cDNA library was constructed from 6 day old chickpea embryos. A total of 8,186 ESTs were obtained from which 4,048 high quality ESTs were assembled into 1,480 unigenes that majorly encoded genes involved in various metabolic and regulatory pathways. Of these, 95 ESTs were found to be involved in ubiquitination related protein degradation pathways and 12 ESTs coded specifically for putative F-box proteins. Differential transcript accumulation of these putative F-box genes was observed in chickpea tissues as evidenced by quantitative real-time PCR. Further, to explore the role of F-box proteins in chickpea seed development, two F-box genes were selected for molecular characterization. These were named as CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM depending on their C-terminal domains, PP2 and LysM, respectively. Their highly conserved structures led us to predict their target substrates. Subcellular localization experiment revealed that CarF-box_PP2 was localized in the cytoplasm and CarF-box_LysM was localized in the nucleus. We demonstrated their physical interactions with SKP1 protein, which validated that they function as F-box proteins in the formation of SCF complexes. Sequence analysis of their promoter regions revealed certain seed specific cis-acting elements that may be regulating their preferential transcript accumulation in the seed. Overall, the study helped in expanding the EST database of chickpea, which was further used to identify two novel F-box genes having a potential role in seed development.

An evaluation of temperature and precipitation from global and regional climate models over Scandinavia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Precipitation and temperature from global (GCMs) and regional (RCMs) climate models are compared with reanalysis and observations over Scandinavia. Also projections for the next 50-100 years are considered. The climate development is visualised as moving averages (1920-2100). Box plots are used to illuminate how well GCM runs capture the observed seasonal cycle. Maps show the seasonal difference between results from control runs (RCM) and observations (E-OBS dataset) for the reference period 1981-2000. Plots illustrate the RCM-representation of seasonal temperature and precipitations cycle for five locations in Norway and Sweden: Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, Tromsoe and Oestersund. The results show rather large differences between control runs and observations, demonstrating the need for bias correction of results from climate models. To get an indicator of which GC M-RCM-combination give the best representation of present climate over Scandinavia, a model ranking is provided. The performance measure used is the root-mean-square deviation of mean monthly and seasonal values. The data is compared both in an area-weighted spatial average of the whole domain as well as for the selected locations. The results indicate that the regional models RACMO2 and RCA show the smallest deviations from observed climate. Among the top ranking GCM-RCM combinations, most were driven by the global model ECHAM5 and some by a version of HadCM3. These two GCMs are also present among the worst performing GCM-RCM combinations indicating that selection of RCMs is crucial. (Author)

Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

2016-04-01

The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamaguchi, Yusuke; Maruo, Kazushi; Partlett, Christopher; Riley, Richard D

2017-07-19

In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and prediction intervals from the normal random effects model. The

A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yusuke Yamaguchi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. Methods We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. Results A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and

Box graphs and resolutions I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas P. Braun

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

Generating synthetic wave climates for coastal modelling: a linear mixed modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, C.; Lark, R. M.

2013-12-01

Numerical coastline morphological evolution models require wave climate properties to drive morphological change through time. Wave climate properties (typically wave height, period and direction) may be temporally fixed, culled from real wave buoy data, or allowed to vary in some way defined by a Gaussian or other pdf. However, to examine sensitivity of coastline morphologies to wave climate change, it seems desirable to be able to modify wave climate time series from a current to some new state along a trajectory, but in a way consistent with, or initially conditioned by, the properties of existing data, or to generate fully synthetic data sets with realistic time series properties. For example, mean or significant wave height time series may have underlying periodicities, as revealed in numerous analyses of wave data. Our motivation is to develop a simple methodology to generate synthetic wave climate time series that can change in some stochastic way through time. We wish to use such time series in a coastline evolution model to test sensitivities of coastal landforms to changes in wave climate over decadal and centennial scales. We have worked initially on time series of significant wave height, based on data from a Waverider III buoy located off the coast of Yorkshire, England. The statistical framework for the simulation is the linear mixed model. The target variable, perhaps after transformation (Box-Cox), is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian, the mean modelled as a function of a fixed effect, and two random components, one of which is independently and identically distributed (iid) and the second of which is temporally correlated. The model was fitted to the data by likelihood methods. We considered the option of a periodic mean, the period either fixed (e.g. at 12 months) or estimated from the data. We considered two possible correlation structures for the second random effect. In one the correlation decays exponentially with time. In the second

Predictions by the multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox compared to field data: Intermedia concentration ratios of two phthalate esters

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Struijs J; Peijnenburg WJGM; ECO

2003-01-01

The multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox is applied to compute steady-state concentration ratios with the aim to harmonize environmetal quality objectives of air, water, sediment and soil. In 1995 the Dutch Health Council recommended validation of the model. Several activities were

Determination of a source in a box with two detectors. I. non-absorbing media

CERN Document Server

Presler, O; German, U; Leichter, Y; Alfassi, Z B

2002-01-01

It was found that the activity and the position of a radioactive point source (hot spot) in a large box containing low absorbing material can be measured accurately using two NaI(Tl) gamma-ray detectors at the opposite sides of the box i.e. at 180 deg. one to another. The harmonic mean of the count rates square roots measured with the two detectors was found to be independent of the hot spot position and depends only on the source activity, the box size and the gamma-rays energy. The activity of the radioactive point source can be calculated from the above-mentioned mean. The position of the point source can be calculated from the ratio of the two detectors count rates.

Opening Pandora's Box: The impact of open system modeling on interpretations of anoxia

Science.gov (United States)

Hotinski, Roberta M.; Kump, Lee R.; Najjar, Raymond G.

2000-06-01

The geologic record preserves evidence that vast regions of ancient oceans were once anoxic, with oxygen levels too low to sustain animal life. Because anoxic conditions have been postulated to foster deposition of petroleum source rocks and have been implicated as a kill mechanism in extinction events, the genesis of such anoxia has been an area of intense study. Most previous models of ocean oxygen cycling proposed, however, have either been qualitative or used closed-system approaches. We reexamine the question of anoxia in open-system box models in order to test the applicability of closed-system results over long timescales and find that open and closed-system modeling results may differ significantly on both short and long timescales. We also compare a scenario with basinwide diffuse upwelling (a three-box model) to a model with upwelling concentrated in the Southern Ocean (a four-box model). While a three-box modeling approach shows that only changes in high-latitude convective mixing rate and character of deepwater sources are likely to cause anoxia, four-box model experiments indicate that slowing of thermohaline circulation, a reduction in wind-driven upwelling, and changes in high-latitude export production may also cause dysoxia or anoxia in part of the deep ocean on long timescales. These results suggest that box models must capture the open-system and vertically stratified nature of the ocean to allow meaningful interpretations of long-lived episodes of anoxia.

A Monte Carlo Investigation of the Box-Cox Model and a Nonlinear Least Squares Alternative.

OpenAIRE

Showalter, Mark H

1994-01-01

This paper reports a Monte Carlo study of the Box-Cox model and a nonlinear least squares alternative. Key results include the following: the transformation parameter in the Box-Cox model appears to be inconsistently estimated in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity; the constant term in both the Box-Cox and the nonlinear least squares models is poorly estimated in small samples; conditional mean forecasts tend to underestimate their true value in the Box-Cox model when the transfor...

NOx and O3 above a tropical rainforest: an analysis with a global and box model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. E. Reeves

2010-11-01

Full Text Available A cross-platform field campaign, OP3, was conducted in the state of Sabah in Malaysian Borneo between April and July of 2008. Among the suite of observations recorded, the campaign included measurements of NOx and O3 – crucial outputs of any model chemistry mechanism. We describe the measurements of these species made from both the ground site and aircraft. We then use the output from two resolutions of the chemistry transport model p-TOMCAT to illustrate the ability of a global model chemical mechanism to capture the chemistry at the rainforest site. The basic model performance is good for NOx and poor for ozone. A box model containing the same chemical mechanism is used to explore the results of the global model in more depth and make comparisons between the two. Without some parameterization of the nighttime boundary layer – free troposphere mixing (i.e. the use of a dilution parameter, the box model does not reproduce the observations, pointing to the importance of adequately representing physical processes for comparisons with surface measurements. We conclude with a discussion of box model budget calculations of chemical reaction fluxes, deposition and mixing, and compare these results to output from p-TOMCAT. These show the same chemical mechanism behaves similarly in both models, but that emissions and advection play particularly strong roles in influencing the comparison to surface measurements.

Group size effects in two repeated game models of a global climate agreement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helland, Leif

2002-01-01

What levels of total abatement can one hope for in a global climate agreement. Some potential answers to this question are provided by game theory. This working paper contains a critical discussion of two (prominent) game ,models that answer the question quite pessimistically. Both models take the n-person, infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game as their point of departure. The first model is a full information model and utilises the motion of a weakly re negotiation proof equilibrium. This results in the (maybe counterintuitive) prediction that an agreement that can provide high utility to the group will attract less total abatement than an agreement that can only provide low utility to the group. The second model assumes imperfect public information and utilises the notion of a trigger level equilibrium. This results in the (more intuitive) prediction that the level of total abatements will increase with improved verification techniques for a given player set. Still the level of total abatements decrease with an increasing player set for a given verification technique. Empirical implications of the two models are identified and it is argued that one should confront these with experimentally generated data in order to discriminate between the models. One reason for this is that historical data on abatement efforts in a global climate agreement do not exist since no such agreement has entered into force yet. (Author)

Group size effects in two repeated game models of a global climate agreement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helland, Leif

2002-07-01

What levels of total abatement can one hope for in a global climate agreement. Some potential answers to this question are provided by game theory. This working paper contains a critical discussion of two (prominent) game ,models that answer the question quite pessimistically. Both models take the n-person, infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game as their point of departure. The first model is a full information model and utilises the motion of a weakly re negotiation proof equilibrium. This results in the (maybe counterintuitive) prediction that an agreement that can provide high utility to the group will attract less total abatement than an agreement that can only provide low utility to the group. The second model assumes imperfect public information and utilises the notion of a trigger level equilibrium. This results in the (more intuitive) prediction that the level of total abatements will increase with improved verification techniques for a given player set. Still the level of total abatements decrease with an increasing player set for a given verification technique. Empirical implications of the two models are identified and it is argued that one should confront these with experimentally generated data in order to discriminate between the models. One reason for this is that historical data on abatement efforts in a global climate agreement do not exist since no such agreement has entered into force yet. (Author)

Box photosynthesis modeling results for WRF/CMAQ LSM

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Box Photosynthesis model simulations for latent heat and ozone at 6 different FLUXNET sites. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Ran, L., J....

Quantifying atmospheric transport, chemistry, and mixing using a new trajectory-box model and a global atmospheric-chemistry GCM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Riede

2009-12-01

Full Text Available We present a novel method for the quantification of transport, chemistry, and mixing along atmospheric trajectories based on a consistent model hierarchy. The hierarchy consists of the new atmospheric-chemistry trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the three-dimensional (3-D global ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric-chemistry (EMAC general circulation model. CAABA/MJT employs the atmospheric box model CAABA in a configuration using the atmospheric-chemistry submodel MECCA (M, the photochemistry submodel JVAL (J, and the new trajectory submodel TRAJECT (T, to simulate chemistry along atmospheric trajectories, which are provided offline. With the same chemistry submodels coupled to the 3-D EMAC model and consistent initial conditions and physical parameters, a unique consistency between the two models is achieved. Since only mixing processes within the 3-D model are excluded from the model consistency, comparisons of results from the two models allow to separate and quantify contributions of transport, chemistry, and mixing along the trajectory pathways. Consistency of transport between the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the 3-D EMAC model is achieved via calculation of kinematic trajectories based on 3-D wind fields from EMAC using the trajectory model LAGRANTO. The combination of the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT and the trajectory model LAGRANTO can be considered as a Lagrangian chemistry-transport model (CTM moving isolated air parcels. The procedure for obtaining the necessary statistical basis for the quantification method is described as well as the comprehensive diagnostics with respect to chemistry.

The quantification method presented here allows to investigate the characteristics of transport, chemistry, and mixing in a grid-based 3-D model. The analysis of chemical processes within the trajectory-box model CAABA/MJT is easily extendable to include, for example, the impact of different transport pathways or of mixing processes onto

Deriving user-informed climate information from climate model ensemble results

Science.gov (United States)

Huebener, Heike; Hoffmann, Peter; Keuler, Klaus; Pfeifer, Susanne; Ramthun, Hans; Spekat, Arne; Steger, Christian; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten

2017-07-01

Communication between providers and users of climate model simulation results still needs to be improved. In the German regional climate modeling project ReKliEs-De a midterm user workshop was conducted to allow the intended users of the project results to assess the preliminary results and to streamline the final project results to their needs. The user feedback highlighted, in particular, the still considerable gap between climate research output and user-tailored input for climate impact research. Two major requests from the user community addressed the selection of sub-ensembles and some condensed, easy to understand information on the strengths and weaknesses of the climate models involved in the project.

The non-linear paradigm: The climate system as an egg box''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iversen, Trond

2000-01-01

The article is the last of three dealing with the problems of climatic forecasting. It presents various ways of applying models and points out that regarding the climate system as non-linear and chaotic may be useful for interpreting observations and models. Some applications of the paradigm are presented. The emphasis is on climatic changes due to energy and human activities

Detecting vegetation-precipitation feedbacks in mid-Holocene North Africa from two climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Yi; Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel; Kutzbach, John E.

2008-03-31

Using two climate-vegetation model simulations from the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 2), we investigate vegetation-precipitation feedbacks across North Africa during the mid-Holocene. From mid-Holocene snapshot runs of FOAM and CCSM2, we detect a negative feedback at the annual timescale with our statistical analysis. Using the Monte- Carlo bootstrap method, the annual negative feedback is further confirmed to be significant in both simulations. Additional analysis shows that this negative interaction is partially caused by the competition between evaporation and transpiration in North African grasslands. Furthermore, we find the feedbacks decrease with increasing timescales, and change signs from positive to negative at increasing timescales in FOAM. The proposed mechanism for this sign switch is associated with the different persistent timescales of upper and lower soil water contents, and their interactions with vegetation and atmospheric precipitation.

Modelling the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using a Grey-box approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

2006-01-01

identification of an overall model structure followed by data-based modelling, whereby the details of the model are identified. This approach is sometimes called grey-box modelling, but the specific approach used here does not require states to be specified. Overall, the paper demonstrates the power of the grey......-box approach. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

Uncertainty propagation of p-boxes using sparse polynomial chaos expansions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schöbi, Roland, E-mail: schoebi@ibk.baug.ethz.ch; Sudret, Bruno, E-mail: sudret@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

2017-06-15

In modern engineering, physical processes are modelled and analysed using advanced computer simulations, such as finite element models. Furthermore, concepts of reliability analysis and robust design are becoming popular, hence, making efficient quantification and propagation of uncertainties an important aspect. In this context, a typical workflow includes the characterization of the uncertainty in the input variables. In this paper, input variables are modelled by probability-boxes (p-boxes), accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The propagation of p-boxes leads to p-boxes of the output of the computational model. A two-level meta-modelling approach is proposed using non-intrusive sparse polynomial chaos expansions to surrogate the exact computational model and, hence, to facilitate the uncertainty quantification analysis. The capabilities of the proposed approach are illustrated through applications using a benchmark analytical function and two realistic engineering problem settings. They show that the proposed two-level approach allows for an accurate estimation of the statistics of the response quantity of interest using a small number of evaluations of the exact computational model. This is crucial in cases where the computational costs are dominated by the runs of high-fidelity computational models.

Uncertainty propagation of p-boxes using sparse polynomial chaos expansions

Science.gov (United States)

Schöbi, Roland; Sudret, Bruno

2017-06-01

In modern engineering, physical processes are modelled and analysed using advanced computer simulations, such as finite element models. Furthermore, concepts of reliability analysis and robust design are becoming popular, hence, making efficient quantification and propagation of uncertainties an important aspect. In this context, a typical workflow includes the characterization of the uncertainty in the input variables. In this paper, input variables are modelled by probability-boxes (p-boxes), accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The propagation of p-boxes leads to p-boxes of the output of the computational model. A two-level meta-modelling approach is proposed using non-intrusive sparse polynomial chaos expansions to surrogate the exact computational model and, hence, to facilitate the uncertainty quantification analysis. The capabilities of the proposed approach are illustrated through applications using a benchmark analytical function and two realistic engineering problem settings. They show that the proposed two-level approach allows for an accurate estimation of the statistics of the response quantity of interest using a small number of evaluations of the exact computational model. This is crucial in cases where the computational costs are dominated by the runs of high-fidelity computational models.

Modeling glacial climates

Science.gov (United States)

North, G. R.; Crowley, T. J.

1984-01-01

Mathematical climate modelling has matured as a discipline to the point that it is useful in paleoclimatology. As an example a new two dimensional energy balance model is described and applied to several problems of current interest. The model includes the seasonal cycle and the detailed land-sea geographical distribution. By examining the changes in the seasonal cycle when external perturbations are forced upon the climate system it is possible to construct hypotheses about the origin of midlatitude ice sheets and polar ice caps. In particular the model predicts a rather sudden potential for glaciation over large areas when the Earth's orbital elements are only slightly altered. Similarly, the drift of continents or the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide over geological time induces radical changes in continental ice cover. With the advance of computer technology and improved understanding of the individual components of the climate system, these ideas will be tested in far more realistic models in the near future.

Validation of precipitation over Japan during 1985-2004 simulated by three regional climate models and two multi-model ensemble means

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ishizaki, Yasuhiro [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan); Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Takayabu, Izuru [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)

2012-07-15

We dynamically downscaled Japanese reanalysis data (JRA-25) for 60 regions of Japan using three regional climate models (RCMs): the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM), modified RAMS version 4.3 (NRAMS), and modified Weather Research and Forecasting model (TWRF). We validated their simulations of the precipitation climatology and interannual variations of summer and winter precipitation. We also validated precipitation for two multi-model ensemble means: the arithmetic ensemble mean (AEM) and an ensemble mean weighted according to model reliability. In the 60 regions NRAMS simulated both the winter and summer climatological precipitation better than JRA-25, and NHRCM simulated the wintertime precipitation better than JRA-25. TWRF, however, overestimated precipitation in the 60 regions in both the winter and summer, and NHRCM overestimated precipitation in the summer. The three RCMs simulated interannual variations, particularly summer precipitation, better than JRA-25. AEM simulated both climatological precipitation and interannual variations during the two seasons more realistically than JRA-25 and the three RCMs overall, but the best RCM was often superior to the AEM result. In contrast, the weighted ensemble mean skills were usually superior to those of the best RCM. Thus, both RCMs and multi-model ensemble means, especially multi-model ensemble means weighted according to model reliability, are powerful tools for simulating seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation in Japan under the current climate. (orig.)

Two-dimensional model of a freely expanding plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalid, Q.

1975-01-01

The free expansion of an initially confined plasma is studied by the computer experiment technique. The research is an extension to two dimensions of earlier work on the free expansion of a collisionless plasma in one dimension. In the two-dimensional rod model, developed in this research, the plasma particles, electrons and ions are modeled as infinitely long line charges or rods. The line charges move freely in two dimensions normal to their parallel axes, subject only to a self-consistent electric field. Two approximations, the grid approximation and the periodic boundary condition are made in order to reduce the computation time. In the grid approximation, the space occupied by the plasma at a given time is divided into boxes. The particles are subject to an average electric field calculated for that box assuming that the total charge within each box is located at the center of the box. However, the motion of each particle is exactly followed. The periodic boundary condition allows us to consider only one-fourth of the total number of particles of the plasma, representing the remaining three-fourths of the particles as symmetrically placed images of those whose positions are calculated. This approximation follows from the expected azimuthal symmetry of the plasma. The dynamics of the expansion are analyzed in terms of average ion and electron positions, average velocities, oscillation frequencies and relative distribution of energy between thermal, flow and electric field energies. Comparison is made with previous calculations of one-dimensional models which employed plane, spherical or cylindrical sheets as charged particles. In order to analyze the effect of the grid approximation, the model is solved for two different grid sizes and for each grid size the plasma dynamics is determined. For the initial phase of expansion, the agreement for the two grid sizes is found to be good

Application of a Three-Layer Photochemical Box Model in an Athens Street Canyon.

Science.gov (United States)

Proyou, Athena G; Ziomas, Loannis C; Stathopoulos, Antony

1998-05-01

The aim of this paper is to show that a photochemical box model could describe the air pollution diurnal profiles within a typical street canyon in the city of Athens. As sophisticated three-dimensional dispersion models are computationally expensive and they cannot serve to simulate pollution levels in the scale of an urban street canyon, a suitably modified three-layer photochemical box model was applied. A street canyon of Athens with heavy traffic was chosen to apply the aforementioned model. The model was used to calculate pollutant concentrations during two days with meteorological conditions favoring pollutant accumulation. Road traffic emissions were calculated based on existing traffic load measurements. Meteorological data, as well as various pollutant concentrations, in order to compare with the model results, were provided by available measurements. The calculated concentrations were found to be in good agreement with measured concentration levels and show that, when traffic load and traffic composition data are available, this model can be used to predict pollution episodes. It is noteworthy that high concentrations persisted, even after additional traffic restriction measures were taken on the second day because of the high pollution levels.

Colouring in the "black-box": Alternative renderings of scientific visualisations in two comic book cosmologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Locke, Simon

2013-04-01

Two somewhat contrasting views of public uses of scientific visualisations argue that they are "black-boxed" with meaning given by the scientific community or they are "polysemic" with meaning given by the context of presentation. This paper argues that whether they are treated as black-boxed or not and in what manner this is done is itself part of the meaning given by context. Thus, "black-boxing" is done not only by scientists but also by members of the public. The argument is illustrated by reference to two recent comic books, Dave Sim's Cerebus and Alan Moore's Promethea, in which the authors present cosmological visions of the universe using scientific visualisations to create a sense of realism. From analysis of their use of images of planet Earth and the human foetus it is argued that, although the images are black-boxed, the authors re-work them aesthetically to suit their specific moral and cosmological views.

Finite element cochlea box model - Mechanical and electrical analysis of the cochlea

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolic, Milica; Teal, Paul D.; Isailovic, Velibor; Filipović, Nenad

2015-12-01

The primary role of the cochlea is to transform external sound stimuli into mechanical vibrations and then to neural impulses which are sent to the brain. A simplified cochlea box model was developed using the finite element method. Firstly, a mechanical model of the cochlea was analyzed. The box model consists of the basilar membrane and two fluid chambers - the scala vestibuli and scala tympani. The third chamber, the scala media, was neglected in the mechanical analysis. The best agreement with currently available analytical and experimental results was obtained when behavior of the fluid in the chambers was described using the wave acoustic equation and behavior of the basilar membrane was modeled with Newtonian dynamics. The obtained results show good frequency mapping. The second approach was to use an active model of the cochlea in which the Organ of Corti was included. The operation of the Organ of Corti involves the generation of current, caused by mechanical vibration. This current in turn causes a force applied to the basilar membrane, creating in this way an active feedback mechanism. A state space representation of the electro-mechanical model from existing literature was implemented and a first comparison with the finite element method is presented.

Boxes of Model Building and Visualization.

Science.gov (United States)

Turk, Dušan

2017-01-01

Macromolecular crystallography and electron microscopy (single-particle and in situ tomography) are merging into a single approach used by the two coalescing scientific communities. The merger is a consequence of technical developments that enabled determination of atomic structures of macromolecules by electron microscopy. Technological progress in experimental methods of macromolecular structure determination, computer hardware, and software changed and continues to change the nature of model building and visualization of molecular structures. However, the increase in automation and availability of structure validation are reducing interactive manual model building to fiddling with details. On the other hand, interactive modeling tools increasingly rely on search and complex energy calculation procedures, which make manually driven changes in geometry increasingly powerful and at the same time less demanding. Thus, the need for accurate manual positioning of a model is decreasing. The user's push only needs to be sufficient to bring the model within the increasing convergence radius of the computing tools. It seems that we can now better than ever determine an average single structure. The tools work better, requirements for engagement of human brain are lowered, and the frontier of intellectual and scientific challenges has moved on. The quest for resolution of new challenges requires out-of-the-box thinking. A few issues such as model bias and correctness of structure, ongoing developments in parameters defining geometric restraints, limitations of the ideal average single structure, and limitations of Bragg spot data are discussed here, together with the challenges that lie ahead.

The Uncertain Role of Biogenic VOC for Boundary-Layer Ozone Concentration: Example Investigation of Emissions from Two Forest Types with a Box Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boris Bonn

2017-10-01

Full Text Available High levels of air pollution including ground level ozone significantly reduce humans’ life expectancy and cause forest damage and decreased tree growth. The French Vosges and the German Black Forest are regions well-known for having the highest tropospheric ozone concentrations at remote forested sites in Central Europe. This box model study investigates the sensitivity of atmospheric chemistry calculations of derived ozone on differently resolved forest tree composition and volatile organic compound emissions. Representative conditions were chosen for the Upper Rhine area including the Alsatian Vosges/France and the Black Forest/Germany during summer. This study aims to answer the following question: What level of input detail for Alsace and Black Forest tree mixtures is required to accurately simulate ozone formation? While the French forest in Alsace—e.g., in the Vosges—emits isoprene to a substantially higher extent than the forest at the German site, total monoterpene emissions at the two sites are rather similar. However, the individual monoterpene structures, and therefore their reactivity, differs. This causes a higher ozone production rate for Vosges forest mixture conditions than for Black Forest tree mixtures at identical NOx levels, with the difference increasing with temperature. The difference in ozone formation is analyzed in detail and the short-comings of reduced descriptions are discussed. The outcome serves as a to-do-list to allow accurate future ozone predictions influenced by the climate adaptation of forests and the change in forest species composition.

New proposal of moderator temperature coefficient estimation method using gray-box model in NPP, (1)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mori, Michitsugu; Kagami, Yuichi; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Enomoto, Mitsuhiro; Tamaoki, Tetsuo; Kawamura, Shinichiro

2004-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to establish a new void reactivity coefficient (VRC) estimation method based on gray box modeling concept. The gray box model consists of a point kinetics model as the first principle model and a fitting model of moderator temperature kinetics. Applying Kalman filter and maximum likehood estimation algorithms to the gray box model, MTC can be estimated. The verification test is done by Monte Carlo simulation, and, it is shown that the present method gives the best estimation results comparing with the conventional methods from the viewpoints of non-biased and smallest scattering estimation performance. Furthermore, the method is verified via real plant data analysis. The reason of good performance of the present method is explained by proper definition of likelihood function based on explicit expression of observation and system noise in the gray box model. (author)

COMPUTER MODEL AND SIMULATION OF A GLOVE BOX PROCESS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, C.

2001-01-01

The development of facilities to deal with the disposition of nuclear materials at an acceptable level of Occupational Radiation Exposure (ORE) is a significant issue facing the nuclear community. One solution is to minimize the worker's exposure though the use of automated systems. However, the adoption of automated systems for these tasks is hampered by the challenging requirements that these systems must meet in order to be cost effective solutions in the hazardous nuclear materials processing environment. Retrofitting current glove box technologies with automation systems represents potential near-term technology that can be applied to reduce worker ORE associated with work in nuclear materials processing facilities. Successful deployment of automation systems for these applications requires the development of testing and deployment strategies to ensure the highest level of safety and effectiveness. Historically, safety tests are conducted with glove box mock-ups around the finished design. This late detection of problems leads to expensive redesigns and costly deployment delays. With wide spread availability of computers and cost effective simulation software it is possible to discover and fix problems early in the design stages. Computer simulators can easily create a complete model of the system allowing a safe medium for testing potential failures and design shortcomings. The majority of design specification is now done on computer and moving that information to a model is relatively straightforward. With a complete model and results from a Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA), redesigns can be worked early. Additional issues such as user accessibility, component replacement, and alignment problems can be tackled early in the virtual environment provided by computer simulation. In this case, a commercial simulation package is used to simulate a lathe process operation at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Lathe process operation is indicative of

Hybrid Decision Making: When Interpretable Models Collaborate With Black-Box Models

OpenAIRE

Wang, Tong

2018-01-01

Interpretable machine learning models have received increasing interest in recent years, especially in domains where humans are involved in the decision-making process. However, the possible loss of the task performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable. This performance downgrade puts practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between a top-performing black-box model with no explanations and an interpretable model with unsatisfying task performance. In this work, we propose a nove...

Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

OpenAIRE

Shang, Han Lin

2015-01-01

The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

Science.gov (United States)

Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

2015-02-01

Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

Experimental Grey Box Model Identification of an Active Gas Bearing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Theisen, Lukas Roy Svane; Pierart Vásquez, Fabián Gonzalo; Niemann, Hans Henrik

2014-01-01

in a dynamic model of an active gas bearing and subsequent control loop design. A grey box model is determined based on experiments where piezo actuated valves are used to perturb the journal and hence excite the rotor-bearing system. Such modelling from actuator to output is shown to effciently support...

A Grey Box Model for the Hydraulics in a Creek

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Harpa; Jacobsen, Judith L.; Madsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

The Saint-Venant equation of mass balance is used to derive a stochastics lumped model, describing the dynamics of a cross-sectional area in a river. The unknown parameters of the model are estimated by combining the physical equation with a set of data, a method known as grey box modelling...

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

Does box model training improve surgical dexterity and economy of movement during virtual reality laparoscopy? A randomised trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clevin, L.; Grantcharov, T.P.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Laparoscopic box model trainers have been used in training curricula for a long time, however data on their impact on skills acquisition is still limited. Our aim was to validate a low cost box model trainer as a tool for the training of skills relevant to laparoscopic surgery. DESIGN:...... the VR system. Trainees who used the box model trainer showed significant improvement compared to the control group. Box model trainers are valid tools for laparoscopic skills training and should be implemented in the comprehensive training curricula in gynaecology Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

2013-01-01

Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

Comparative uncertainty analysis of copper loads in stormwater systems using GLUE and grey-box modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2007-01-01

. With the proposed model and input data, the GLUE analysis show that the total sampled copper mass can be predicted within a range of +/- 50% of the median value ( 385 g), whereas the grey-box analysis showed a prediction uncertainty of less than +/- 30%. Future work will clarify the pros and cons of the two methods...

Numerical models and experiment of air flow in a simulation box for optical wireless communications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Latal Jan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, the authors focused on real measurements of mechanical turbulence generated by ventilators in the simulation box for Optical Wireless Communications. The mechanical turbulences disturb the optical beam that propagates along the central axis of the simulation box. The aim of authors is to show the effect of mechanical turbulence on optical beams at different heights in the simulation box. In the Ansys Fluent, we created numerical models which were then compared with real measurements. Authors compared the real and numerical models according to statistical methods.

ClimateSpark: An In-memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Li, Z.

2016-12-01

Massive array-based climate data is being generated from global surveillance systems and model simulations. They are widely used to analyze the environment problems, such as climate changes, natural hazards, and public health. However, knowing the underlying information from these big climate datasets is challenging due to both data- and computing- intensive issues in data processing and analyzing. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes ClimateSpark, an in-memory distributed computing framework to support big climate data processing. In ClimateSpark, the spatiotemporal index is developed to enable Apache Spark to treat the array-based climate data (e.g. netCDF4, HDF4) as native formats, which are stored in Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any preprocessing. Based on the index, the spatiotemporal query services are provided to retrieve dataset according to a defined geospatial and temporal bounding box. The data subsets will be read out, and a data partition strategy will be applied to equally split the queried data to each computing node, and store them in memory as climateRDDs for processing. By leveraging Spark SQL and User Defined Function (UDFs), the climate data analysis operations can be conducted by the intuitive SQL language. ClimateSpark is evaluated by two use cases using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. One use case is to conduct the spatiotemporal query and visualize the subset results in animation; the other one is to compare different climate model outputs using Taylor-diagram service. Experimental results show that ClimateSpark can significantly accelerate data query and processing, and enable the complex analysis services served in the SQL-style fashion.

Modeling radiative transfer with the doubling and adding approach in a climate GCM setting

Science.gov (United States)

Lacis, A. A.

2017-12-01

The nonlinear dependence of multiply scattered radiation on particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle, makes accurate treatment of multiple scattering in the climate GCM setting problematic, due primarily to computational cost issues. In regard to the accurate methods of calculating multiple scattering that are available, their computational cost is far too prohibitive for climate GCM applications. Utilization of two-stream-type radiative transfer approximations may be computationally fast enough, but at the cost of reduced accuracy. We describe here a parameterization of the doubling/adding method that is being used in the GISS climate GCM, which is an adaptation of the doubling/adding formalism configured to operate with a look-up table utilizing a single gauss quadrature point with an extra-angle formulation. It is designed to closely reproduce the accuracy of full-angle doubling and adding for the multiple scattering effects of clouds and aerosols in a realistic atmosphere as a function of particle size, optical depth, and solar zenith angle. With an additional inverse look-up table, this single-gauss-point doubling/adding approach can be adapted to model fractional cloud cover for any GCM grid-box in the independent pixel approximation as a function of the fractional cloud particle sizes, optical depths, and solar zenith angle dependence.

Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco

2017-05-25

Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the

Efficient Parameterization for Grey-box Model Identification of Complex Physical Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blanke, Mogens; Knudsen, Morten Haack

2006-01-01

Grey box model identification preserves known physical structures in a model but with limits to the possible excitation, all parameters are rarely identifiable, and different parametrizations give significantly different model quality. Convenient methods to show which parameterizations are the be...... that need be constrained to achieve satisfactory convergence. Identification of nonlinear models for a ship illustrate the concept....

Robustness analysis of a parallel two-box digital polynomial predistorter for an SOA-based CO-OFDM system

Science.gov (United States)

Diouf, C.; Younes, M.; Noaja, A.; Azou, S.; Telescu, M.; Morel, P.; Tanguy, N.

2017-11-01

The linearization performance of various digital baseband pre-distortion schemes is evaluated in this paper for a coherent optical OFDM (CO-OFDM) transmitter employing a semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA). In particular, the benefits of using a parallel two-box (PTB) behavioral model, combining a static nonlinear function with a memory polynomial (MP) model, is investigated for mitigating the system nonlinearities and compared to the memoryless and MP models. Moreover, the robustness of the predistorters under different operating conditions and system uncertainties is assessed based on a precise SOA physical model. The PTB scheme proves to be the most effective linearization technique for the considered setup, with an excellent performance-complexity tradeoff over a wide range of conditions.

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

2010-12-15

Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Thinking Out of the Box: A Green and Social Climate Fund; Comment on “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gorik Ooms

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Solomon Benatar’s paper “Politics, Power, Poverty and Global Health: Systems and Frames” examines the inequitable state of global health challenging readers to extend the discourse on global health beyond conventional boundaries by addressing the interconnectedness of planetary life. Our response explores existing models of international cooperation, assessing how modifying them may achieve the twin goals of ensuring healthy people and planet. First, we address why the inequality reducing post World War II European welfare model, if implemented stateby-state, is unfit for reducing global inequality and respecting environmental boundaries. Second, we argue that to advance beyond the ‘Westphalian,’ human centric thinking integral to global inequality and climate change requires challenging the logic of global economic integration and exploring the politically infeasible. In conclusion, we propose social policy focused changes to the World Trade Organisation (WTO and a Green and Social Climate Fund, financed by new global greenhouse gas charges, both of which could advance human and planetary health. Recent global political developments may offer a small window of opportunity for out of the box proposals that could be advanced by concerted and united advocacy by global health activists, environmental activists, human rights activists, and trade unions.

Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

Science.gov (United States)

Squire, O. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Griffiths, P. T.; Jenkin, M. E.; Smith, D.; Pyle, J. A.

2015-05-01

Isoprene is a~precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry-climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work, we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the Master Chemical Mechanism) over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene-rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide-ranging response is due to differences in the model descriptions of the peroxy radical chemistry, particularly their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. We also note changes in other key oxidants such as NO3 and OH (due to the inclusion of

Flexible mixture modeling via the multivariate t distribution with the Box-Cox transformation: an alternative to the skew-t distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Kenneth; Gottardo, Raphael

2012-01-01

Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of homogeneous observations in a data set. A popular modeling approach for clustering is based on finite normal mixture models, which assume that each cluster is modeled as a multivariate normal distribution. However, the normality assumption that each component is symmetric is often unrealistic. Furthermore, normal mixture models are not robust against outliers; they often require extra components for modeling outliers and/or give a poor representation of the data. To address these issues, we propose a new class of distributions, multivariate t distributions with the Box-Cox transformation, for mixture modeling. This class of distributions generalizes the normal distribution with the more heavy-tailed t distribution, and introduces skewness via the Box-Cox transformation. As a result, this provides a unified framework to simultaneously handle outlier identification and data transformation, two interrelated issues. We describe an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation along with transformation selection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with three real data sets and simulation studies. Compared with a wealth of approaches including the skew-t mixture model, the proposed t mixture model with the Box-Cox transformation performs favorably in terms of accuracy in the assignment of observations, robustness against model misspecification, and selection of the number of components.

TRACKING CLIMATE MODELS

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — CLAIRE MONTELEONI*, GAVIN SCHMIDT, AND SHAILESH SAROHA* Climate models are complex mathematical models designed by meteorologists, geophysicists, and climate...

Model identification using stochastic differential equation grey-box models in diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard; Møller, Jonas Bech; Nørgaard, Kirsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Madsen, Henrik

2013-03-01

The acceptance of virtual preclinical testing of control algorithms is growing and thus also the need for robust and reliable models. Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can rarely be validated with standard statistical tools. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer the possibility of building models that can be validated statistically and that are capable of predicting not only a realistic trajectory, but also the uncertainty of the prediction. In an SDE, the prediction error is split into two noise terms. This separation ensures that the errors are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained due to the separation of the prediction error. SDE-GBs offer a solid framework for using statistical tools for model validation and model development. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

Science.gov (United States)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Uncertainties in modelling the climate impact of irrigation

Science.gov (United States)

de Vrese, Philipp; Hagemann, Stefan

2017-11-01

Irrigation-based agriculture constitutes an essential factor for food security as well as fresh water resources and has a distinct impact on regional and global climate. Many issues related to irrigation's climate impact are addressed in studies that apply a wide range of models. These involve substantial uncertainties related to differences in the model's structure and its parametrizations on the one hand and the need for simplifying assumptions for the representation of irrigation on the other hand. To address these uncertainties, we used the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System model into which a simple irrigation scheme was implemented. In order to estimate possible uncertainties with regard to the model's more general structure, we compared the climate impact of irrigation between three simulations that use different schemes for the land-surface-atmosphere coupling. Here, it can be shown that the choice of coupling scheme does not only affect the magnitude of possible impacts but even their direction. For example, when using a scheme that does not explicitly resolve spatial subgrid scale heterogeneity at the surface, irrigation reduces the atmospheric water content, even in heavily irrigated regions. Contrarily, in simulations that use a coupling scheme that resolves heterogeneity at the surface or even within the lowest layers of the atmosphere, irrigation increases the average atmospheric specific humidity. A second experiment targeted possible uncertainties related to the representation of irrigation characteristics. Here, in four simulations the irrigation effectiveness (controlled by the target soil moisture and the non-vegetated fraction of the grid box that receives irrigation) and the timing of delivery were varied. The second experiment shows that uncertainties related to the modelled irrigation characteristics, especially the irrigation effectiveness, are also substantial. In general the impact of irrigation on the state of the land

Gamma-ray boxes from axion-mediated dark matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibarra, Alejandro; Gehler, Sergio López; Pato, Miguel; Lee, Hyun Min; Park, Wan-Il

2013-01-01

We compute the gamma-ray output of axion-mediated dark matter and derive the corresponding constraints set by recent data. In such scenarios the dark matter candidate is a Dirac fermion that pair-annihilates into axions and/or scalars. Provided that the axion decays (at least partly) into photons, these models naturally give rise to a box-shaped gamma-ray spectrum that may present two distinct phenomenological behaviours: a narrow box, resembling a line at half the dark matter mass, or a wide box, spanning an extensive energy range up to the dark matter mass. Remarkably, we find that in both cases a sizable gamma-ray flux is predicted for a thermal relic without fine-tuning the model parameters nor invoking boost factors. This large output is in line with recent Fermi-LAT observations towards the galactic centre region and is on the verge of being excluded. We then make use of the Fermi-LAT and H.E.S.S. data to derive robust, model-independent upper limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section for the narrow and wide box scenarios. H.E.S.S. constraints, in particular, turn out to match the ones from Fermi-LAT at hundreds of GeV and extend to multi-TeV masses. Future Čerenkov telescopes will likely probe gamma-ray boxes from thermal dark matter relics in the whole multi-TeV range, a region hardly accessible to direct detection, collider searches and other indirect detection strategies

Invariant box-parameterization of neutrino oscillations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiler, Thomas J.; Wagner, DJ

1998-01-01

The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing-matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C; Holopainen, E; Kaurola, J; Ruosteenoja, K; Raeisaenen, J [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1997-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Climate models and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fortelius, C.; Holopainen, E.; Kaurola, J.; Ruosteenoja, K.; Raeisaenen, J. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1996-12-31

In recent years the modelling of interannual climate variability has been studied, the atmospheric energy and water cycles, and climate simulations with the ECHAM3 model. In addition, the climate simulations of several models have been compared with special emphasis in the area of northern Europe

Prediction of ionizing radiation effects in integrated circuits using black-box models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williamson, P.W.

1976-10-01

A method is described which allows general black-box modelling of integrated circuits as distinct from the existing method of deriving the radiation induced response of the model from actual terminal measurements on the device during irradiation. Both digital and linear circuits are discussed. (author)

Modeling pN2 through Geological Time: Implications for Planetary Climates and Atmospheric Biosignatures.

Science.gov (United States)

Stüeken, E E; Kipp, M A; Koehler, M C; Schwieterman, E W; Johnson, B; Buick, R

2016-12-01

Nitrogen is a major nutrient for all life on Earth and could plausibly play a similar role in extraterrestrial biospheres. The major reservoir of nitrogen at Earth's surface is atmospheric N 2 , but recent studies have proposed that the size of this reservoir may have fluctuated significantly over the course of Earth's history with particularly low levels in the Neoarchean-presumably as a result of biological activity. We used a biogeochemical box model to test which conditions are necessary to cause large swings in atmospheric N 2 pressure. Parameters for our model are constrained by observations of modern Earth and reconstructions of biomass burial and oxidative weathering in deep time. A 1-D climate model was used to model potential effects on atmospheric climate. In a second set of tests, we perturbed our box model to investigate which parameters have the greatest impact on the evolution of atmospheric pN 2 and consider possible implications for nitrogen cycling on other planets. Our results suggest that (a) a high rate of biomass burial would have been needed in the Archean to draw down atmospheric pN 2 to less than half modern levels, (b) the resulting effect on temperature could probably have been compensated by increasing solar luminosity and a mild increase in pCO 2 , and (c) atmospheric oxygenation could have initiated a stepwise pN 2 rebound through oxidative weathering. In general, life appears to be necessary for significant atmospheric pN 2 swings on Earth-like planets. Our results further support the idea that an exoplanetary atmosphere rich in both N 2 and O 2 is a signature of an oxygen-producing biosphere. Key Words: Biosignatures-Early Earth-Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 16, 949-963.

Box Model of Freshwater, Salinity and Nutrient in the Delta Mahakam, East Kalimantan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marojahan Simanjuntak

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Box Model of Freshwater, Salinity and Nutrient in the Delta Mahakam, East Kalimantan. Research has been conducted in the southern part of the Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan. Method of measuring temperature, salinity, light transmission and turbidity by using CTD model 603 SBE and current measurement and bathymetry by using ADCP model RDI. Measurement parameters on the nutrient chemistry are based of water samples taken using Nansen bottles from two depths. The purpose of this study to determine the mechanism of freshwater, salinity and nutrient transport from the land of the Mahakam River which interact with seawater by using box models. The results illustrate that the vertical distribution of salinity in the Mahakam Delta has obtained a high stratification, where the freshwater salinity 12.30 psu at the surface of a river flowing toward the sea, and seawater of high salinity 30.07 psu flowing in the direction river under the surface that are separated by a layer of mixture. Freshwater budget of the sea (VSurf obtained for 0,0306 x 109 m3 day-1, and the sea water salinity budget is going into the bottom layer system (VDeep.SOcn-d obtained for 20,727 x 109 psu day-1. While time dilution (Syst obtained for 0.245 day-1 or 5.87 hours. Nutrient budget in the surface layer obtained by the system is autotrophic while in layers near the bottom tend to be heterotrophic

Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

2015-01-01

Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

2012-01-01

The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

Invariant box parameterization of neutrino oscillations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiler, T.J.; Wagner, D.

1998-01-01

The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

2013-01-01

Using laying hens, we investigated whether position of a nest box, both within the pen and relative to other nest boxes, influenced the preference for a nest box, and how a sudden and marked change to the preferred box influenced the use of nest boxes by the hens. Groups (n=12) of 15 Isa Warren...... hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...... carried out. First, the undisturbed use of each of the nest box types was investigated, and a strong preference (Peggs laid there. Second, each of the hen groups was moved to another pen allocated at random, and where...

On the modeling of gas flow through porous compression packings used in valve stuffing-boxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazeminia, Mehdi; Bouzid, Abdel-Hakim

2015-01-01

Predicting leak rate through porous compression packing rings is a significant challenge for the design of packed stuffing boxes. Although few studies have been conducted to predict the leak rate through these seals, there is no comprehensive standard procedure to be used to design compression packings for a maximum tolerated leak for a given application. With the ubiquitous use of the yarned packing rings and the strict regulations on fugitive emissions and the new environment protection laws quantification of leak rate through yarned stuffing boxes becomes more than necessary and a tightness criteria based design procedure must be developed. In this study a new approach to predict leak rate through compression packing rings has been developed. It is based on Darcy's model to which Klinkenberg slip effect is incorporated. The predicted leak rates are compared to those measured experimentally using two different graphite-based packing rings subjected to different compression levels and pressures. A good agreement is found between the predicted and the measured leak rates which illustrates the validity of the developed model. (author)

Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wadum, Jørgen

1998-01-01

The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century....... The increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...... buffer material to stabilize the internal RH, a more recent box containing no added buffer material, and, in recent times, boxes with an altered gas content. Another concern is the appearance (aesthetics) of the box....

Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Raquel A.; Cabeza, Mar; Altwegg, Res

2016-01-01

as indicators of the exposure of species to climate change. Here, we investigate whether these two approaches provide qualitatively similar indications about where biodiversity is potentially most exposed to climate change. Location: Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We compared a range of climate change metrics...... for sub-Saharan Africa with ensembles of bioclimatic envelope models for 2723 species of amphibians, snakes, mammals and birds. For each taxonomic group, we performed three comparisons between the two approaches: (1) is projected change in local climatic suitability (models) greater in grid cells...... between the two approaches was found for all taxonomic groups, although it was stronger for species with a narrower climatic envelope breadth. Main conclusions: For sub-Saharan African vertebrates, projected patterns of exposure to climate change given by climate change metrics alone were qualitatively...

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-06

United States Geological Service VBA Visual Basic for Applications (programming language) VIC The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model...specialists with good understanding of the specific system being investigated. Available climate information products can be accessed to provide...BOX 3 – CLIMATE INFORMATION PRODUCTS There are a number of tools available that provide easy access to a range of climate information products. For

SECOND ORDER LEAST SQUARE ESTIMATION ON ARCH(1 MODEL WITH BOX-COX TRANSFORMED DEPENDENT VARIABLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herni Utami

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Box-Cox transformation is often used to reduce heterogeneity and to achieve a symmetric distribution of response variable. In this paper, we estimate the parameters of Box-Cox transformed ARCH(1 model using second-order leastsquare method and then we study the consistency and asymptotic normality for second-order least square (SLS estimators. The SLS estimation was introduced byWang (2003, 2004 to estimate the parameters of nonlinear regression models with independent and identically distributed errors

Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

2015-08-01

The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

Development of a global aerosol model using a two-dimensional sectional method: 1. Model design

Science.gov (United States)

Matsui, H.

2017-08-01

This study develops an aerosol module, the Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation version 2 (ATRAS2), and implements the module into a global climate model, Community Atmosphere Model. The ATRAS2 module uses a two-dimensional (2-D) sectional representation with 12 size bins for particles from 1 nm to 10 μm in dry diameter and 8 black carbon (BC) mixing state bins. The module can explicitly calculate the enhancement of absorption and cloud condensation nuclei activity of BC-containing particles by aging processes. The ATRAS2 module is an extension of a 2-D sectional aerosol module ATRAS used in our previous studies within a framework of a regional three-dimensional model. Compared with ATRAS, the computational cost of the aerosol module is reduced by more than a factor of 10 by simplifying the treatment of aerosol processes and 2-D sectional representation, while maintaining good accuracy of aerosol parameters in the simulations. Aerosol processes are simplified for condensation of sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate, organic aerosol formation, coagulation, and new particle formation processes, and box model simulations show that these simplifications do not substantially change the predicted aerosol number and mass concentrations and their mixing states. The 2-D sectional representation is simplified (the number of advected species is reduced) primarily by the treatment of chemical compositions using two interactive bin representations. The simplifications do not change the accuracy of global aerosol simulations. In part 2, comparisons with measurements and the results focused on aerosol processes such as BC aging processes are shown.

[A test of the focusing hypothesis for category judgment: an explanation using the mental-box model].

Science.gov (United States)

Hatori, Tsuyoshi; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fujii, Satoshi; Ideno, Takashi

2011-06-01

This paper presents a new model of category judgment. The model hypothesizes that, when more attention is focused on a category, the psychological range of the category gets narrower (category-focusing hypothesis). We explain this hypothesis by using the metaphor of a "mental-box" model: the more attention that is focused on a mental box (i.e., a category set), the smaller the size of the box becomes (i.e., a cardinal number of the category set). The hypothesis was tested in an experiment (N = 40), where the focus of attention on prescribed verbal categories was manipulated. The obtained data gave support to the hypothesis: category-focusing effects were found in three experimental tasks (regarding the category of "food", "height", and "income"). The validity of the hypothesis was discussed based on the results.

Model Identification Using Stochastic Differential Equation Grey-Box Models in Diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard

2013-01-01

are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. METHODS: An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters...... in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. CONCLUSION: This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained...... are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. RESULTS: We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted...

Real-time process optimization based on grey-box neural models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. A. Cubillos

2007-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the feasibility of using grey-box neural models (GNM in Real Time Optimization (RTO. These models are based on a suitable combination of fundamental conservation laws and neural networks, being used in at least two different ways: to complement available phenomenological knowledge with empirical information, or to reduce dimensionality of complex rigorous physical models. We have observed that the benefits of using these simple adaptable models are counteracted by some difficulties associated with the solution of the optimization problem. Nonlinear Programming (NLP algorithms failed in finding the global optimum due to the fact that neural networks can introduce multimodal objective functions. One alternative considered to solve this problem was the use of some kind of evolutionary algorithms, like Genetic Algorithms (GA. Although these algorithms produced better results in terms of finding the appropriate region, they took long periods of time to reach the global optimum. It was found that a combination of genetic and nonlinear programming algorithms can be use to fast obtain the optimum solution. The proposed approach was applied to the Williams-Otto reactor, considering three different GNM models of increasing complexity. Results demonstrated that the use of GNM models and mixed GA/NLP optimization algorithms is a promissory approach for solving dynamic RTO problems.

Comfort-box controls individual level of comfort. Domotica home network for indoor climate management; Comfort-box regelt individueel comfort-niveau. Domotica-huisnetwerk voor beheer binnenklimaat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kamphuis, I.G; Warmer, C.J.; Bakker, E.J. [ECN Duurzame Energie in de Gebouwde Omgeving DEGO, Petten (Netherlands)

2005-03-01

The Comfort-Box (or C-Box) project is an automatic and continuous control system for energy efficient and cost-effective thermal comfort in houses. In this article detailed information is given of the design and performance of the C-Box. [Dutch] De huidige regelsystemen voor het binnenklimaat in woningen zijn voor verbetering vatbaar. Met het Comfort-boxconcept is een regeling ontwikkeld die automatisch en continu het individuele comfortniveau regelt in woningen, waarbij afwegingen worden gemaakt tussen kosten en comfort. De Comfort-box blijkt in staat te zijn het binnencomfort op energie- en kostenefficiente wijze te beheren.

Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Hsien-Wang

2018-01-01

We formulate a box model of coupled ocean-atmosphere to examine the differential fields interactive with the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their response to global warming. We discern a robust convective bound on the atmospheric heat transport, which would divide the climate regime into warm and cold branches; but unlike the saline mode of previous box models, the cold state, if allowed, has the same-signed—though weaker—density contrast and THC as the present climate, which may explain its emergence from coupled general circulation models. We underscore the nondeterminacy of the THC due to random eddy shedding and apply the fluctuation theorem to constrain the shedding rate, thus closing the problem. The derivation reveals an ocean propelled toward the maximum entropy production (MEP) on millennial timescale (termed "MEP-adjustment"), the long timescale arising from the compounding effect of microscopic fluctuations in the shedding rate and their slight probability bias. Global warming may induce hysteresis between the two branches, like that seen in GCMs, but the cold transition is far more sensitive to the moistening than the heating effects as the latter would be countered by the hydrological feedback. The uni- or bi-modality of the current state—hence whether the THC may recover after the cold transition—depends on the global-mean convective flux and may not be easily assessed due to its observed uncertainty.

Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asma Foughali

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

Evaluation process radiological in ternopil region method of box models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

І.В. Матвєєва

2006-02-01

Full Text Available  Results of radionuclides Sr-90 flows analyses in the ecosystem of Kotsubinchiky village of Ternopolskaya oblast were analyzed. The block-scheme of ecosystem and its mathematical model using the box models method were made. It allowed us to evaluate the ways of dose’s loadings formation of internal irradiation for miscellaneous population groups – working people, retirees, children, and also to prognose the dynamic of these loadings during the years after the Chernobyl accident.

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

Science.gov (United States)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that

Packing a cake into a box

KAUST Repository

Skopenkov, Mikhail

2011-01-01

Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky's question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

Packing a cake into a box

KAUST Repository

Skopenkov, Mikhail

2011-05-01

Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

A report on workshops: General circulation model study of climate- chemistry interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei-Chyung, Wang; Isaksen, I.S.A.

1993-01-01

This report summarizes the discussion on General Circulation Model Study of Climate-Chemistry Interaction from two workshops, the first held 19--21 August 1992 at Oslo, Norway and the second 26--27 May 1993 at Albany, New York, USA. The workshops are the IAMAP activities under the Trace Constituent Working Group. The main objective of the two workshops was to recommend specific general circulation model (GCM) studies of the ozone distribution and the climatic effect of its changes. The workshops also discussed the climatic implications of increasing sulfate aerosols because of its importance to regional climate. The workshops were organized into four working groups: observation of atmospheric O 3 ; modeling of atmospheric chemical composition; modeling of sulfate aerosols; and aspects of climate modeling

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

MADS-box gene evolution - structure and transcription patterns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Bo; Pedersen, Louise Buchholt; Skipper, Martin

2002-01-01

Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs......Mads-box genes, ABC model, Evolution, Phylogeny, Transcription patterns, Gene structure, Conserved motifs...

Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saraswat, A., E-mail: anupams@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Reddy, G.R. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, S. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

2014-09-15

Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saraswat, A.; Reddy, G.R.; Ghosh, S.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

Applicability of Modified Drift Flux Model for Bubbly Flow in 2-D/3-D Rectangular Box With Various Kinds of Obstacles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatsuya Matsumoto; Akihiro Uchibori; Ryo Akasaka; Toshinori Seki; Shyuji Kaminishi; Koji Morita; Kenji Fukuda

2002-01-01

In order to develop analytical tools for the analyses of multi dimensional two-phase flow in channels with obstacles, the modified drift flux model has been applied. Numerical simulations of multi dimensional gas-liquid two-phase flow in a channel, with some kinds of obstacles inserted to simulate a simple sub-channel in the fuel bundle, were carried out. Analytical results were compared with experiments, to show the validity of the modified drift flux model. Experiments were carried out with using an apparatus of 2-D/3-D rectangular box with a perforated plate or a horizontal plate with slit hole or a vertical rod inserted. Nitrogen gas-water adiabatic two phase flow was circulated in the box. The apparatus was made of acrylic resin plates and be able to make the flow inside visualized. Two-phase flow pattern were recorded with a high-speed video camera and the mass flow rate of nitrogen gas was measured with a digital gas-mass flow meter. Comparisons between the experimental results and the numerical ones showed good agreements, thus it was verified the model would be applied for predicting flows in more complex geometry with obstacles. (authors)

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Weaver, A.J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC (Canada)

2000-06-01

A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities, albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications. (orig.)

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

The Particle/Wave-in-a-Box Model in Dutch Secondary Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Hoekzema, Dick; van den Berg, Ed; Schooten, Gert; van Dijk, Leo

2007-01-01

The combination of mathematical and conceptual difficulties makes teaching quantum physics at secondary schools a precarious undertaking. With many of the conceptual difficulties being unavoidable, simplifying the mathematics becomes top priority. The particle/wave-in-a-box provides a teaching model which includes many aspects of serious …

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

Science.gov (United States)

Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

2018-01-01

Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according

A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzin Shabani

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF, together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers, to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs, Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent

Predictability of two types of El Niño and their climate impacts in boreal spring to summer in coupled models

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ray Wai-Ki; Tam, Chi-Yung; Sohn, Soo-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

2017-12-01

The predictability of the two El Niño types and their different impacts on the East Asian climate from boreal spring to summer have been studied, based on coupled general circulation models (CGCM) simulations from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast experiments. It was found that both the spatial pattern and temporal persistence of canonical (eastern Pacific type) El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) are much better simulated than those for El Niño Modoki (central Pacific type). In particular, most models tend to have El Niño Modoki events that decay too quickly, in comparison to those observed. The ability of these models in distinguishing between the two types of ENSO has also been assessed. Based on the MME average, the two ENSO types become less and less differentiated in the model environment as the forecast leadtime increases. Regarding the climate impact of ENSO, in spring during canonical El Niño, coupled models can reasonably capture the anomalous low-level anticyclone over the western north Pacific (WNP)/Philippine Sea area, as well as rainfall over coastal East Asia. However, most models have difficulties in predicting the springtime dry signal over Indochina to South China Sea (SCS) when El Niño Modoki occurs. This is related to the location of the simulated anomalous anticyclone in this region, which is displaced eastward over SCS relative to the observed. In boreal summer, coupled models still exhibit some skills in predicting the East Asian rainfall during canonical El Nino, but not for El Niño Modoki. Overall, models' performance in spring to summer precipitation forecasts is dictated by their ability in capturing the low-level anticyclonic feature over the WNP/SCS area. The latter in turn is likely to be affected by the realism of the time mean monsoon circulation in models.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Integrated climate and hydrology modelling - Coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahl Larsen, M.A. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. DTU Management Engineering, DTU Risoe Campus, Roskilde (Denmark)

2013-10-15

To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior to the LSM in HIRHAM. A wider range of processes are included at the land surface, subsurface flow is distributed in three dimensions and the temporal and spatial resolution is higher. Secondly, the feedback mechanisms of e.g. soil moisture and precipitation between the two models are included. The preparation of the HIRHAM and MIKE SHE models for the coupled study revealed several findings. The performance of HIRHAM was highly affected by the domain size, domain

Global Climate Models Intercomparison of Anthropogenic Aerosols Effects on Regional Climate over North Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, J.; Zhang, R.; Wang, Y.; Ming, Y.; Lin, Y.; Pan, B.

2015-12-01

Aerosols can alter atmospheric radiation and cloud physics, which further exert impacts on weather and global climate. With the development and industrialization of the developing Asian countries, anthropogenic aerosols have received considerable attentions and remain to be the largest uncertainty in the climate projection. Here we assess the performance of two stat-of-art global climate models (National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Atmosphere Model 5 (CAM5) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmosphere Model 3 (AM3)) in simulating the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on North Pacific storm track region. By contrasting two aerosol scenarios, i.e. present day (PD) and pre-industrial (PI), both models show aerosol optical depth (AOD) enhanced by about 22%, with CAM5 AOD 40% lower in magnitude due to the long range transport of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol effects on the ice water path (IWP), stratiform precipitation, convergence and convection strengths in the two models are distinctive in patterns and magnitudes. AM3 shows qualitatively good agreement with long-term satellite observations, while CAM5 overestimates convection and liquid water path resulting in an underestimation of large-scale precipitation and IWP. Due to coarse resolution and parameterization in convection schemes, both models' performance on convection needs to be improved. Aerosols performance on large-scale circulation and radiative budget are also examined in this study.

The Box Model and the Acoustic Sounder, a Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Niels Otto; Lundtang Petersen, Erik

1979-01-01

Concentrations of SO2 in a large city during a subsidence situation are predicted as a function of time by means of a simple box model and the predictions are compared to actual SO2 concentration measurements. The agreement between model results and measurements is found to be excellent. The mode...... uses the height of the mixing layer as measured by means of an acoustic sounder. It is demonstrated that this height is a dominant factor in determining the variation of the SO2 concentration...

VBSM: VCC-Based Black Box Service Model with Enhanced Data Integrity

OpenAIRE

Kang, Won; Lee, Jae; Park, Jong

2014-01-01

Recently, intelligent transport systems have been applied to vehicle cloud environments. Such technology is especially useful for the systematic management of road traffic. Moreover, automobiles are increasingly equipped with a black box for accident prevention and preservation of evidence. Vehicle black boxes have become mandatory because black box images and voice data have served as forensic evidence in courts. However, the data from black boxes can be forged or modified by man-in-the-midd...

Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2018-05-01

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

Science.gov (United States)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

A satellite simulator for TRMM PR applied to climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Spangehl, T.; Schroeder, M.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Hollmann, R.; Riley Dellaripa, E. M.; Schumacher, C.

2017-12-01

Climate model simulations have to be compared against observation based datasets in order to assess their skill in representing precipitation characteristics. Here we use a satellite simulator for TRMM PR in order to evaluate simulations performed with MPI-ESM (Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany) performed within the MiKlip project (https://www.fona-miklip.de/, funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany). While classical evaluation methods focus on geophysical parameters such as precipitation amounts, the application of the satellite simulator enables an evaluation in the instrument's parameter space thereby reducing uncertainties on the reference side. The CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) provides a framework for the application of satellite simulators to climate model simulations. The approach requires the introduction of sub-grid cloud and precipitation variability. Radar reflectivities are obtained by applying Mie theory, with the microphysical assumptions being chosen to match the atmosphere component of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6). The results are found to be sensitive to the methods used to distribute the convective precipitation over the sub-grid boxes. Simple parameterization methods are used to introduce sub-grid variability of convective clouds and precipitation. In order to constrain uncertainties a comprehensive comparison with sub-grid scale convective precipitation variability which is deduced from TRMM PR observations is carried out.

Computer experiments with a coarse-grid hydrodynamic climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenchikov, G.L.

1990-01-01

A climate model is developed on the basis of the two-level Mintz-Arakawa general circulation model of the atmosphere and a bulk model of the upper layer of the ocean. A detailed model of the spectral transport of shortwave and longwave radiation is used to investigate the radiative effects of greenhouse gases. The radiative fluxes are calculated at the boundaries of five layers, each with a pressure thickness of about 200 mb. The results of the climate sensitivity calculations for mean-annual and perpetual seasonal regimes are discussed. The CCAS (Computer Center of the Academy of Sciences) climate model is used to investigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic changes of the optical properties of the atmosphere due to increasing CO 2 content and aerosol pollution, and to calculate the sensitivity to changes of land surface albedo and humidity

Coupling a global climatic model with insurance impact models for flood and drought: an estimation of the financial impact of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tinard Pierre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available CCR, a French reinsurance company mostly involved in natural disasters coverage in France, has been developing tools for the estimation of its exposure to climatic risks for many years. Both a flood and a drought models were developed and calibrated on a large policies and claims database supplied every year with insurers’ data. More recently, CCR has been developing a stochastic approach in order to evaluate its financial exposure to extreme events. A large and realistic event set has been generated by applying extreme value statistic tools to simulate hazard and to estimate, using our impact models, the average annual losses and losses related to different return periods. These event sets have been simulated separately for flood and drought, with a hypothesis of independence, consistent with recent annual damage data. The newest development presented here consists in the use of the ARPEGE–Climat model performed by Météo-France to simulate two 200-years sets of hourly atmospheric time series reflecting both the current climate and the RCP 4.5 climate conditions circa year 2050. These climatic data constitute the input data for the flood and drought impact models to detect events and simulate the associated hazard and damages. Our two main goals are (1 to simulate simultaneously flood and drought events for the same simulated years and (2 to evaluate the financial impact of climate change.

The regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.-P. Pietikäinen

2012-11-01

Full Text Available REMO-HAM is a new regional aerosol-climate model. It is based on the REMO regional climate model and includes most of the major aerosol processes. The structure for aerosol is similar to the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, for example the aerosol module HAM is coupled with a two-moment stratiform cloud scheme. On the other hand, REMO-HAM does not include an online coupled aerosol-radiation nor a secondary organic aerosol module. In this work, we evaluate the model and compare the results against ECHAM5-HAM and measurements. Four different measurement sites were chosen for the comparison of total number concentrations, size distributions and gas phase sulfur dioxide concentrations: Hyytiälä in Finland, Melpitz in Germany, Mace Head in Ireland and Jungfraujoch in Switzerland. REMO-HAM is run with two different resolutions: 50 × 50 km² and 10 × 10 km². Based on our simulations, REMO-HAM is in reasonable agreement with the measured values. The differences in the total number concentrations between REMO-HAM and ECHAM5-HAM can be mainly explained by the difference in the nucleation mode. Since we did not use activation nor kinetic nucleation for the boundary layer, the total number concentrations are somewhat underestimated. From the meteorological point of view, REMO-HAM represents the precipitation fields and 2 m temperature profile very well compared to measurement. Overall, we show that REMO-HAM is a functional aerosol-climate model, which will be used in further studies.

The C-Box. An integrated indoor climate control using an ICT network. Architecture and analysis of realization options in houses; De C-box. Een geintegreerde binnenklimaatregeling gebruik makend van een ICT-netwerk. Architectuur en analyse van realisatiemogelijkheden binnen woningen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Warmer, C.J.; Kamphuis, I.G. [ECN Duurzame Energie in de Gebouwde Omgeving DEGO, Petten (Netherlands)

2003-07-01

The development of a set of concepts for an integrated management system for thermal comfort in houses, the C-Box, is described. An information model is given for the C-Box in which, apart from a central heating system, also other components are taken into account, such as ventilation and solar radiation control. Besides integration of components, also control within a wider context is defined. Access to external information, model building information and, especially, the user perception is modelled. The C-Box references the Fanger comfort model in which, besides air temperature, radiation temperature, humidity, air velocity, user activity and clothing level are taken into account. The comfort management model is an adaptive model, thus anticipating and avoiding unwanted effects in the near future (several hours up to one day). Special attention is paid to the interaction between de C-Box and the occupants of a house. Occupants in a house can have a dynamic behaviour, both in presence and in activities. In many cases the comfort wishes can be derived from a general style of living of the occupants. In order to have a adequate comfort management, temporary changes in the comfort wish need to be detected in time. There is a need for a practical, understandable and simple user interaction, which in may cases is a bottleneck in the development of technical systems. Advances in the area of 'ambient technology' can lead to a new way of integration of technology and user acceptance, which bridges this gap. In this report a number of simulation calculations have been performed to assess the impact of this new philosophy in terms of cost and comfort. The calculations are performed using representative houses in the Netherlands taking into account the differences in life-style. Occupants who are already efficient in their energy use can gain extra energy savings up to 5%, without little or no comfort reduction. More careless occupants can even gain more. An

Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchionne, Arianna

of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Beckage, Brian; Gross, Louis J.; Lacasse, Katherine; Carr, Eric; Metcalf, Sara S.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Howe, Peter D.; Fefferman, Nina; Franck, Travis; Zia, Asim; Kinzig, Ann; Hoffman, Forrest M.

2018-01-01

Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 °C by 2100 compared with 4.9 °C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 °C versus 3.5 °C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.

Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

2016-01-01

We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

Spacer for supporting fuel element boxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wild, E.

1979-01-01

A spacer plate unit arranged externally on each side and at a predetermined level of a polygonal fuel element box for mutually supporting, with respect to one another, a plurality of the fuel element boxes forming a fuel element bundle, is formed of a first and a second spacer plate part each having the same length and the same width and being constituted of unlike first and second materials, respectively. The first and second spacer plate parts of the several spacer plate units situated at the predetermined level are arranged in an alternating continuous series when viewed in the peripheral direction of the fuel element box, so that any two spacer plate units belonging to face-to-face oriented sides of two adjoining fuel element boxes in the fuel element bundle define interfaces of unlike materials

First record of the Two-striped Box Crab Calappa bilineata Ng, Lai & Aungtonya, 2002 (Brachyura: Calappidae from St. Martin’s Island, Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muntasir Akash

2017-01-01

Full Text Available As part of survey of a BS (hons study tour conducted by the Department of Zoology, University of Dhaka, two specimens of box crab were caught with a beach seine net from the northern beach in front of the Hotel Prince Heaven (20038’07.50”N & 92019’34.68”E on new moon of 07th December 2012.  Those box crabs were identified as the Two Striped Box Crab Calappa bilineata Ng, Lai & Aungtonya, 2002 which is turned out as a new record for Bangladesh and a record for the northern part of the Bay of Bengal. 

A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. C. Wozniak

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus, evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4, and ragweed (Ambrosia. This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4 over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1 a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2 a plant functional type (PFT land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Grey-Box Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2004-01-01

An efficient and flexible parameter estimation scheme for grey-box models in the sense of discretely, partially observed Ito stochastic differential equations with measurement noise is presented along with a corresponding software implementation. The estimation scheme is based on the extended...... Kalman filter and features maximum likelihood as well as maximum a posteriori estimation on multiple independent data sets, including irregularly sampled data sets and data sets with occasional outliers and missing observations. The software implementation is compared to an existing software tool...... and proves to have better performance both in terms of quality of estimates for nonlinear systems with significant diffusion and in terms of reproducibility. In particular, the new tool provides more accurate and more consistent estimates of the parameters of the diffusion term....

The Analysis of Organizational Diagnosis on Based Six Box Model in Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Rahimi; Siadat, Sayyed Ali; Reza, Hoveida; Arash, Shahin; Ali, Nasrabadi Hasan; Azizollah, Arbabisarjou

2011-01-01

Purpose: The analysis of organizational diagnosis on based six box model at universities. Research method: Research method was descriptive-survey. Statistical population consisted of 1544 faculty members of universities which through random strafed sampling method 218 persons were chosen as the sample. Research Instrument were organizational…

Intervention model in organizational climate

OpenAIRE

Cárdenas Niño, Lucila; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Arciniegas Rodríguez, Yuly Cristina; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05; Barrera Cárdenas, Mónica; Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Escuela de Psicología, Hospital Antiguo, Carrera 10 No 16ª05

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess whether the intervention model in organizational climate PMCO, was effective in the Hospital of Yopal, Colombia. The following five phases, proposed by the model, were implemented: 1) problem analysis, 2) awareness, 3) strategies design and planning, at the individual, intergroup, and organizational levels, 4) implementation of the strategy, and 5) process evaluation. A design composed of two groups, experimental and control, was chosen, analyzing whether t...

Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Werf, Edwin

2008-01-01

Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

1994-05-01

This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

Characterization of the solar climate in Malawi using NASA's surface ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

Characterization of the solar climate in Malawi using. NASA's surface meteorology and solar energy. (SSE) model. Senganimalunje, T. C.1 and Tenthani, C. M. 2*. 1Malawi Bureau of Standards, Metrology Services Department, Box 946, Blantyre, Malawi. 2Physics and Biochemical Sciences Department, Malawi Polytechnic, ...

Two ABREs, two redundant root-specific and one W-box cis-acting elements are functional in the sunflower HAHB4 promoter.

Science.gov (United States)

Manavella, Pablo A; Dezar, Carlos A; Ariel, Federico D; Chan, Raquel L

2008-10-01

HAHB4 is a sunflower gene encoding a homeodomain-leucine zipper (HD-Zip) transcription factor. It was previously demonstrated that this gene is regulated at the transcriptional level by several abiotic factors and hormones. A previous analysis in the PLACE database revealed the presence of four putative ABREs. In this work these four elements and also one W-box and two root-specific expression elements were characterized as functional. Site-directed mutagenesis on the promoter, stable transformation of Arabidopis plants as well as transient transformation of sunflower leaves, were performed. The analysis of the transformants was carried out by histochemistry and real time RT-PCR. The results indicate that just one ABRE out of the four is responsible for ABA, NaCl and drought regulation. However, NaCl induction occurs also by an additional ABA-independent way involving another two overlapped ABREs. On the other hand, it was determined that the W-box located 5' upstream is responsive to ethylene and only two root-specific expression elements, among the several detected, are functional but redundant. Conservation of molecular mechanisms between sunflower and Arabidopsis is strongly supported by this experimental work.

Modelling extreme climatic events in Guadalquivir Estuary ( Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Juan; Moreno-Navas, Juan; Pulido, Antoine; García-Lafuente, Juan; Calero Quesada, Maria C.; García, Rodrigo

2017-04-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves and severe storms are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their socio-ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in estuarine ecosystems. The Guadalquivir Estuary has been anthropologically modified several times, the original salt marshes have been transformed to grow rice and cotton and approximately one-fourth of the total surface of the estuary is now part of two protected areas, one of them is a UNESCO, MAB Biosphere Reserve. The climatic events are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades and a further understanding how these climatic disturbances drive abrupt changes in the Guadalquivir estuary is needed. A barotropic model has been developed to study how severe storm events affects the estuary by conducting paired control and climate-events simulations. The changes in the local wind and atmospheric pressure conditions in the estuary have been studied in detail and several scenarios are obtained by running the model under control and real storm conditions. The model output has been validated with in situ water elevation and good agreement between modelled and real measurements have been obtained. Our preliminary results show that the model demonstrated the capability describe of the tide-surge levels in the estuary, opening the possibility to study the interaction between climatic events and the port operations and food production activities. The barotropic hydrodynamic model provide spatially explicit information on the key variables governing the tide dynamics of estuarine areas under severe climatic scenarios . The numerical model will be a powerful tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation programs in a complex socio-ecological system.

Insights into the quality of DnaA boxes and their cooperativity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Flemming G.; Christensen, Bjarke Bak; Nielsen, Christina Bang

2006-01-01

Plasmids carrying the mioC promoter region with its two DnaA boxes are as efficient in titration of DnaA protein as plasmids carrying a replicationinactivated oriC region with its five DnaA boxes. The two DnaA boxes upstream of the mioC promoter were mutated in various ways to study the cooperati......Plasmids carrying the mioC promoter region with its two DnaA boxes are as efficient in titration of DnaA protein as plasmids carrying a replicationinactivated oriC region with its five DnaA boxes. The two DnaA boxes upstream of the mioC promoter were mutated in various ways to study...... the cooperativity between the DnaA boxes, and to study in vivo the in vitrodefined 9mer DnaA box consensus sequence TTA/TTNCACA). The quality and cooperativity of the DnaA oxes were determined in two complementary ways: as titration of DnaA protein leading to derepression of the dnaA promoter, and as repression...... of the mioC promoter caused by the DnaA protein binding to the DnaA boxes. Titration of DnaA protein correlated with repression of the mioC promoter. The level of titration and repression with the normal promoter-proximal box (TTTTCCACA) depends strongly on the presence and the quality of a DnaA box...

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

Science.gov (United States)

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Exergaming boxing versus heavy-bag boxing: are these equipotent for individuals with spinal cord injury?

Science.gov (United States)

Mat Rosly, Maziah; Mat Rosly, Hadi; Hasnan, Nazirah; Davis, Glen M; Husain, Ruby

2017-08-01

Current strategies for increased physical activity and exercise in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) face many challenges with regards to maintaining their continuity of participation. Barriers cited often include problems with accessing facilities, mundane, monotonous or boring exercises and expensive equipment that is often not adapted for wheelchair users. To compare the physiological responses and user preferences between conventional heavy-bag boxing against a novel form of video game boxing, known as exergaming boxing. Cross-sectional study. Exercise laboratory setting in a university medical center. Seventeen participants with SCI were recruited, of which sixteen were male and only one female. Their mean age was 35.6±10.2 years. All of them performed a 15-minute physical exercise session of exergaming and heavy-bag boxing in a sitting position. The study assessed physiological responses in terms of oxygen consumption, metabolic equivalent (MET) and energy expenditure between exergaming and heavy-bag boxing derived from open-circuit spirometry. Participants also rated their perceived exertion using Borg's category-ratio ratings of perceived exertion. Both exergaming (MET: 4.3±1.0) and heavy-bag boxing (MET: 4.4±1.0) achieved moderate exercise intensities in these participants with SCI. Paired t-test revealed no significant differences (P>0.05, Cohen's d: 0.02-0.49) in the physiological or perceived exertional responses between the two modalities of boxing. Post session user survey reported all the participants found exergaming boxing more enjoyable. Exergaming boxing, was able to produce equipotent physiological responses as conventional heavy-bag boxing. The intensity of both exercise modalities achieved recommended intensities for health and fitness benefits. Exergaming boxing have the potential to provide an enjoyable, self-competitive environment for moderate-vigorous exercise even at the comfort of their homes.

The Fractal Characteristics of the Landslides by Box-Counting and P-A Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhiwang; Zhou, Fangfang; Cao, Hao

2018-01-01

The landslide is a kind of complicated phenomenon with nonlinear inter-reaction. The traditional theories and methods are difficult to study the uncertainty characteristics of dynamic evolution of the landslides. This paper applies box-counting and P-A model to study the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide hazards in the study area from Badong county to Zigui county in TGP reservoir region. The data obtained from the study area shows power-law distributions of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides, and thus reveals some fractal or self-similarity properties. The fractral dimensions DAP of the spatial distribution of landslides by P-A model shows that DAP of the western landslides in the study area are smaller than those of the east, which shows that the geometry of the eastern landslide is more irregular and complicated than the western ones. The results show box-counting model and P-A model can be used to characterize the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides.

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Design report for shielded glove box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ku, J. H.; Lee, J. C.; Seo, K. S.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, D. W.; Kim, J. H.; Min, D. K.; Park, S. W.

1999-05-01

For the examination of spent fuels and high radioactive specimens using a specially equipped scanning electron microscope, a shielded glove box was designed and constructed at PIE facility of KAERI. This glove box consisted of shielding walls, containment box, lead glasses, manipulators, gloves, ventilation systems, doors, hot-cell specimen cask adapter, etc. It was emphasized that both the easy operation and radiation safety are important factors in the shielded glove box were installed also considered as a important factor to build the basic concept of the assembling. Two sliding doors and one hinge-type door were installed for the easy installation, operation and maintenance of scanning electron microscope. Containment box which confines the radioactive material into the box consisted of reinforced transparent glasses, aluminum frames and stainless steel plate liner. Therefore everything beyond the containment box can be seen through the lead glass which installed at the front shielding wall. All shielding walls and doors were introduced separately into the room and assembled by bolting. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 18 figs

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Z. Li

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d₁ and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

On coupling global biome models with climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, is coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg. It is found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only between the initial biome distribution and the biome distribution computed after the first simulation period, provided that the climate-biome model is started from a biome distribution that resembles the present-day distribution. After the first simulation period, there is no significant shrinking, expanding, or shifting of biomes. Likewise, no trend is seen in global averages of land-surface parameters and climate variables. (orig.)

The Y-Box Binding Protein 1 Suppresses Alzheimer's Disease Progression in Two Animal Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N V Bobkova

Full Text Available The Y-box binding protein 1 (YB-1 is a member of the family of DNA- and RNA binding proteins. It is involved in a wide variety of DNA/RNA-dependent events including cell proliferation and differentiation, stress response, and malignant cell transformation. Previously, YB-1 was detected in neurons of the neocortex and hippocampus, but its precise role in the brain remains undefined. Here we show that subchronic intranasal injections of recombinant YB-1, as well as its fragment YB-11-219, suppress impairment of spatial memory in olfactory bulbectomized (OBX mice with Alzheimer's type degeneration and improve learning in transgenic 5XFAD mice used as a model of cerebral amyloidosis. YB-1-treated OBX and 5XFAD mice showed a decreased level of brain β-amyloid. In OBX animals, an improved morphological state of neurons was revealed in the neocortex and hippocampus; in 5XFAD mice, a delay in amyloid plaque progression was observed. Intranasally administered YB-1 penetrated into the brain and could enter neurons. In vitro co-incubation of YB-1 with monomeric β-amyloid (1-42 inhibited formation of β-amyloid fibrils, as confirmed by electron microscopy. This suggests that YB-1 interaction with β-amyloid prevents formation of filaments that are responsible for neurotoxicity and neuronal death. Our data are the first evidence for a potential therapeutic benefit of YB-1 for treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

Regionalizing global climate models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pitman, A.J.; Arneth, A.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

2012-01-01

Global climate models simulate the Earth's climate impressively at scales of continents and greater. At these scales, large-scale dynamics and physics largely define the climate. At spatial scales relevant to policy makers, and to impacts and adaptation, many other processes may affect regional and

Evaluation of global climate models for Indian monsoon climatology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R; Ghosh, Subimal

2012-01-01

The viability of global climate models for forecasting the Indian monsoon is explored. Evaluation and intercomparison of model skills are employed to assess the reliability of individual models and to guide model selection strategies. Two dominant and unique patterns of Indian monsoon climatology are trends in maximum temperature and periodicity in total rainfall observed after 30 yr averaging over India. An examination of seven models and their ensembles reveals that no single model or model selection strategy outperforms the rest. The single-best model for the periodicity of Indian monsoon rainfall is the only model that captures a low-frequency natural climate oscillator thought to dictate the periodicity. The trend in maximum temperature, which most models are thought to handle relatively better, is best captured through a multimodel average compared to individual models. The results suggest a need to carefully evaluate individual models and model combinations, in addition to physical drivers where possible, for regional projections from global climate models. (letter)

Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

2016-04-01

In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict

Impacts of bromine and iodine chemistry on tropospheric OH and HO2: comparing observations with box and global model perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Daniel; Sherwen, Tomás; Evans, Mathew J.; Vaughan, Stewart; Ingham, Trevor; Whalley, Lisa K.; Edwards, Peter M.; Read, Katie A.; Lee, James D.; Moller, Sarah J.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Heard, Dwayne E.

2018-03-01

The chemistry of the halogen species bromine and iodine has a range of impacts on tropospheric composition, and can affect oxidising capacity in a number of ways. However, recent studies disagree on the overall sign of the impacts of halogens on the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. We present simulations of OH and HO2 radicals for comparison with observations made in the remote tropical ocean boundary layer during the Seasonal Oxidant Study at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in 2009. We use both a constrained box model, using detailed chemistry derived from the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), and the three-dimensional global chemistry transport model GEOS-Chem. Both model approaches reproduce the diurnal trends in OH and HO2. Absolute observed concentrations are well reproduced by the box model but are overpredicted by the global model, potentially owing to incomplete consideration of oceanic sourced radical sinks. The two models, however, differ in the impacts of halogen chemistry. In the box model, halogen chemistry acts to increase OH concentrations (by 9.8 % at midday at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory), while the global model exhibits a small increase in OH at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (by 0.6 % at midday) but overall shows a decrease in the global annual mass-weighted mean OH of 4.5 %. These differences reflect the variety of timescales through which the halogens impact the chemical system. On short timescales, photolysis of HOBr and HOI, produced by reactions of HO2 with BrO and IO, respectively, increases the OH concentration. On longer timescales, halogen-catalysed ozone destruction cycles lead to lower primary production of OH radicals through ozone photolysis, and thus to lower OH concentrations. The global model includes more of the longer timescale responses than the constrained box model, and overall the global impact of the longer timescale response (reduced primary production due to lower O3 concentrations

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

Science.gov (United States)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed

Oscillations in a simple climate-vegetation model

Science.gov (United States)

Rombouts, J.; Ghil, M.

2015-05-01

We formulate and analyze a simple dynamical systems model for climate-vegetation interaction. The planet we consider consists of a large ocean and a land surface on which vegetation can grow. The temperature affects vegetation growth on land and the amount of sea ice on the ocean. Conversely, vegetation and sea ice change the albedo of the planet, which in turn changes its energy balance and hence the temperature evolution. Our highly idealized, conceptual model is governed by two nonlinear, coupled ordinary differential equations, one for global temperature, the other for vegetation cover. The model exhibits either bistability between a vegetated and a desert state or oscillatory behavior. The oscillations arise through a Hopf bifurcation off the vegetated state, when the death rate of vegetation is low enough. These oscillations are anharmonic and exhibit a sawtooth shape that is characteristic of relaxation oscillations, as well as suggestive of the sharp deglaciations of the Quaternary. Our model's behavior can be compared, on the one hand, with the bistability of even simpler, Daisyworld-style climate-vegetation models. On the other hand, it can be integrated into the hierarchy of models trying to simulate and explain oscillatory behavior in the climate system. Rigorous mathematical results are obtained that link the nature of the feedbacks with the nature and the stability of the solutions. The relevance of model results to climate variability on various timescales is discussed.

Modelling pesticide leaching under climate change: parameter vs. climate input uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Steffens

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Assessing climate change impacts on pesticide leaching requires careful consideration of different sources of uncertainty. We investigated the uncertainty related to climate scenario input and its importance relative to parameter uncertainty of the pesticide leaching model. The pesticide fate model MACRO was calibrated against a comprehensive one-year field data set for a well-structured clay soil in south-western Sweden. We obtained an ensemble of 56 acceptable parameter sets that represented the parameter uncertainty. Nine different climate model projections of the regional climate model RCA3 were available as driven by different combinations of global climate models (GCM, greenhouse gas emission scenarios and initial states of the GCM. The future time series of weather data used to drive the MACRO model were generated by scaling a reference climate data set (1970–1999 for an important agricultural production area in south-western Sweden based on monthly change factors for 2070–2099. 30 yr simulations were performed for different combinations of pesticide properties and application seasons. Our analysis showed that both the magnitude and the direction of predicted change in pesticide leaching from present to future depended strongly on the particular climate scenario. The effect of parameter uncertainty was of major importance for simulating absolute pesticide losses, whereas the climate uncertainty was relatively more important for predictions of changes of pesticide losses from present to future. The climate uncertainty should be accounted for by applying an ensemble of different climate scenarios. The aggregated ensemble prediction based on both acceptable parameterizations and different climate scenarios has the potential to provide robust probabilistic estimates of future pesticide losses.

Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

2014-01-01

Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

2005-06-01

Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

Simulation of recent and future climates using CNRM and IPSL models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Musat, I.; Salas y Melia, D.; Tyteca, S.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Gueremy, J.F.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S.; Royer, J.F.; Voldoire, A.; Denvil, S.; Cadule, P.; Foujols, M.A.; Arzel, O.; Fichefet, T.; Krinner, G.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.

2006-01-01

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. centuries. In this paper we present the results of the two French climate models, CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

Science.gov (United States)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

Modeling thermal structure, ice cover regime and sensitivity to climate change of two regulated lakes - a Norwegian case study

Science.gov (United States)

Gebre, Solomon; Boissy, Thibault; Alfredsen, Knut

2013-04-01

A great number of river and lakes in Norway and the Nordic region at large are regulated for water management such as hydropower production. Such regulations have the potential to alter the thermal and hydrological regimes in the lakes and rivers downstream impacting on river environment and ecology. Anticipated changes as a result of climate change in meteorological forcing data such as air temperature and precipitation cause changes in the water balance, water temperature and ice cover duration in the reservoirs. This may necessitate changes in operational rules as part of an adaptation strategy for the future. In this study, a one dimensional (1D) lake thermodynamic and ice cover model (MyLake) has been modified to take into account the effect of dynamic outflows in reservoirs and applied to two small but relatively deep regulated lakes (reservoirs) in Norway (Follsjøen and Tesse). The objective was to assess climate change impacts on the seasonal thermal characteristics, the withdrawal temperatures, and the reservoir ice cover dynamics with current operational regimes. The model solves the vertical energy balance on a daily time-step driven by meteorological and hydrological forcings: 2m air temperature, precipitation, 2m relative humidity, 10m wind speed, cloud cover, air pressure, solar insolation, inflow volume, inflow temperature and reservoir outflows. Model calibration with multi-seasonal data of temperature profiles showed that the model performed well in simulating the vertical water temperature profiles for the two study reservoirs. The withdrawal temperatures were also simulated reasonably well. The comparison between observed and simulated lake ice phenology (which were available only for one of the reservoirs - Tesse) was also reasonable taking into account the uncertainty in the observational data. After model testing and calibration, the model was then used to simulate expected changes in the future (2080s) due to climate change by considering

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

The Urgent Need for Improved Climate Models and Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Goddard, Lisa; Baethgen, Walter; Kirtman, Ben; Meehl, Gerald

2009-09-01

An investment over the next 10 years of the order of US$2 billion for developing improved climate models was recommended in a report (http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_WorldModellingSummit_Jan2009.pdf) from the May 2008 World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, held in Reading, United Kingdom, and presented by the World Climate Research Programme. The report indicated that “climate models will, as in the past, play an important, and perhaps central, role in guiding the trillion dollar decisions that the peoples, governments and industries of the world will be making to cope with the consequences of changing climate.” If trillions of dollars are going to be invested in making decisions related to climate impacts, an investment of $2 billion, which is less than 0.1% of that amount, to provide better climate information seems prudent. One example of investment in adaptation is the World Bank's Climate Investment Fund, which has drawn contributions of more than $6 billion for work on clean technologies and adaptation efforts in nine pilot countries and two pilot regions. This is just the beginning of expenditures on adaptation efforts by the World Bank and other mechanisms, focusing on only a small fraction of the nations of the world and primarily aimed at anticipated anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, decisions are being made now, all around the world—by individuals, companies, and governments—that affect people and their livelihoods today, not just 50 or more years in the future. Climate risk management, whether related to projects of the scope of the World Bank's or to the planning and decisions of municipalities, will be best guided by meaningful climate information derived from observations of the past and model predictions of the future.

Behavior of Reinforced Concrete Hybrid Trapezoidal Box Girders Using Ordinary and Highly Strength Concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nameer A. Alawsh

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the general behavior of reinforced concrete hybrid box girders is studied by experimental and numerical investigation. Experimental work is included casting monolithically five specimens of box girders with trapezoidal cross section and testing it as simply supported under two point loading. Two specimens were cast as homogenous box girders (full normal strength concrete (NSC (about 35 MPa and full high strength concrete (HSC (about 55 MPa and three specimens were cast as hybrid box girders (HSC in upper flange only, HSC in upper flange and half depth of webs, and HSC in bottom flange and total depth of webs. Experimental results showed significant effects of concrete hybridization on the structural behavior of box girders specimens such as: cracking loads, cracking patterns, ultimate strengths, and failure modes. The ultimate strength of Hybrid box girders increased by 23% as average when compared with the homogenous box girder (full NSC and decreased by 9% as average when compared with homogenous box girder (full HSC. In numerical investigation, the tested specimens were modeled and analyzed using three dimensional non-linear finite element analysis. The analysis was carried out by using a computer program (ANSYS V16.1. The numerical results showed an acceptable agreement with the experimental work with difference about (3.12% and 9.588% as average for ultimate load and deflection, respectively.

Decontamination of two filter boxes after a fire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cerre, P.; Mestre, E.; Lafitte, T.

1961-01-01

As a primary filter of the venting system caught fire in a hot cell of the Laboratory of Examination of Irradiated Fuels, this filter (as well as the secondary filter) has been removed, wrapped in polyvinyl sheets, and transported into the decontamination station. The authors report the details of the handling and decontamination operations: modifications to the station arrangement, measures of radiation protection, decontamination and measurements, observations made when disassembling the filter and filter-boxes [fr

Simulation of recent and future climates using CNRM and IPSL models; Simulation du climat recent et futur par les modeles du CNRM et de l'IPSL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Musat, I. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-IPSL), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Salas y Melia, D.; Tyteca, S.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Gueremy, J.F.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S.; Royer, J.F.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo France Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Denvil, S.; Cadule, P.; Foujols, M.A. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Arzel, O.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Marti, O.; Swingedouw, D. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Domaine du CNRS, 91 - Gif Sur Yvette (France); Krinner, G. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Grenoble I, Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), CNRS, 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Levy, C.; Madec, G. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. d' Oceanographie et Climat (Locean-IPLS), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France)

2006-11-15

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. centuries. In this paper we present the results of the two French climate models, CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

Virtual Box

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davis, Hilary; Skov, Mikael B.; Stougaard, Malthe

2007-01-01

. This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

On coupling global biome models with climate models

OpenAIRE

Claussen, M.

1994-01-01

The BIOME model of Prentice et al. (1992; J. Biogeogr. 19: 117-134), which predicts global vegetation patterns in equilibrium with climate, was coupled with the ECHAM climate model of the Max-Planck-Institut fiir Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. It was found that incorporation of the BIOME model into ECHAM, regardless at which frequency, does not enhance the simulated climate variability, expressed in terms of differences between global vegetation patterns. Strongest changes are seen only betw...

Teaching Climate Social Science and Its Practices: A Two-Pronged Approach to Climate Literacy

Science.gov (United States)

Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.

2014-12-01

The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude

Reconstructing the climate states of the Late Pleistocene with the MIROC climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; O'ishi, Ryouta; Takahashi, Kunio

2014-05-01

The Late Pleistocene was a period which lasted from the Eemian interglacial period to the start of the warm Holocene and was characterized mostly by widespread glacial ice. It was also a period which saw modern humans spread throughout the world and other species of the same genus, like the Neanderthals, become extinct. Various hypotheses have been put forward to explain the extinction of Neanderthals, about 30,000 years ago. Among these is one which involves changes in past climate and the inability of Neanderthals to adapt to such changes. The last traces of Neanderthals coincide with the end of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) which was marked by large fluctuations in temperature and so-called Heinrich events, as suggested by geochemical records from ice cores. It is thought that melting sea ice or icebergs originating from the Laurentide ice sheet led to a large discharge of freshwater into the North Atlantic Ocean during the Heinrich events and severely weakened the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, with important environmental ramifications across parts of Europe such as sharp decreases in temperature and reduction in forest cover. In order to assess the effects of past climate change on past hominin migration and on the extinction of certain species, it is first important to have a good understanding of the past climate itself. In this study, we have used three variants of MIROC (The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), a global climate model, for a time slice experiment within the Late Pleistocene: two mid-resolution models (an atmosphere model and a coupled atmosphere-ocean model) and a high-resolution atmosphere model. To obtain a fuller picture, we also look at a cool stadial state as obtained from a 'freshwater hosing' coupled-model experiment, designed to mimic the effects of freshwater discharge in the North Atlantic. We next use the sea surface temperature response from this experiment to drive the atmosphere models. We discuss

An Online Approach for Training International Climate Scientists to Use Computer Models

Science.gov (United States)

Yarker, M. B.; Mesquita, M. D.; Veldore, V.

2013-12-01

With the mounting evidence by the work of IPCC (2007), climate change has been acknowledged as a significant challenge to Sustainable Development by the international community. It is important that scientists in developing countries have access to knowledge and tools so that well-informed decisions can be made about the mitigation and adaptation of climate change. However, training researchers to use climate modeling techniques and data analysis has become a challenge, because current capacity building approaches train researchers to use climate models through short-term workshops, which requires a large amount of funding. It has also been observed that many participants who recently completed capacity building courses still view climate and weather models as a metaphorical 'black box', where data goes in and results comes out; and there is evidence that these participants lack a basic understanding of the climate system. Both of these issues limit the ability of some scientists to go beyond running a model based on rote memorization of the process. As a result, they are unable to solve problems regarding run-time errors, thus cannot determine whether or not their model simulation is reasonable. Current research in the field of science education indicates that there are effective strategies to teach learners about science models. They involve having the learner work with, experiment with, modify, and apply models in a way that is significant and informative to the learner. It has also been noted that in the case of computational models, the installation and set up process alone can be time consuming and confusing for new users, which can hinder their ability to concentrate on using, experimenting with, and applying the model to real-world scenarios. Therefore, developing an online version of capacity building is an alternative approach to the workshop training programs, which makes use of new technologies and it allows for a long-term educational process in a way

Prestressing force monitoring method for a box girder through distributed long-gauge FBG sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shi-Zhi; Wu, Gang; Xing, Tuo; Feng, De-Cheng

2018-01-01

Monitoring prestressing forces is essential for prestressed concrete box girder bridges. However, the current monitoring methods used for prestressing force were not applicable for a box girder neither because of the sensor’s setup being constrained or shear lag effect not being properly considered. Through combining with the previous analysis model of shear lag effect in the box girder, this paper proposed an indirect monitoring method for on-site determination of prestressing force in a concrete box girder utilizing the distributed long-gauge fiber Bragg grating sensor. The performance of this method was initially verified using numerical simulation for three different distribution forms of prestressing tendons. Then, an experiment involving two concrete box girders was conducted to study the feasibility of this method under different prestressing levels preliminarily. The results of both numerical simulation and lab experiment validated this method’s practicability in a box girder.

Construction and properties of Box-Behnken designs

OpenAIRE

Jo, Jinnam

1992-01-01

Box-Behnken designs are used to estimate parameters in a second-order response surface model (Box and Behnken, 1960). These designs are formed by combining ideas from incomplete block designs (BIBD or PBIBD) and factorial experiments, specifically 2k full or 2k-1 fractional factorials. In this dissertation, a more general mathematical formulation of the Box-Behnken method is provided, a general expression for the coefficient matrix in the least squares analysis for estimatin...

Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

1992-08-01

Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

2007-01-01

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcing. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcing, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcing are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcing, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcing, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcing, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistic weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcing are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (authors)

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Molecular cloning, identification, and chromosomal localization of two MADS box genes in peach (Prunus persica).

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lin; Xu, Yong; Ma, Rongcai

2008-06-01

MADS box proteins play an important role in floral development. To find genes involved in the floral transition of Prunus species, cDNAs for two MADS box genes, PpMADS1 and PpMADS10, were cloned using degenerate primers and 5'- and 3'-RACE based on the sequence database of P. persica and P. dulcis. The full length of PpMADS1 cDNA is 1,071 bp containing an open reading frame (ORF) of 717 bp and coding for a polypeptide of 238 amino acid residues. The full length of PpMADS10 cDNA is 937 bp containing an ORF of 633 bp and coding for a polypeptide of 210 amino acid residues. Sequence comparison revealed that PpMADS1 and PpMADS10 were highly homologous to genes AP1 and PI in Arabidopsis, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that PpMADS1 belongs to the euAP1 clade of class A, and PpMADS10 is a member of GLO/PI clade of class B. RT-PCR analysis showed that PpMADS1 was expressed in sepal, petal, carpel, and fruit, which was slightly different from the expression pattern of AP1; PpMADS10 was expressed in petal and stamen, which shared the same expression pattern as PI. Using selective mapping strategy, PpMADS1 was assigned onto the Bin1:50 on the G1 linkage group between the markers MCO44 and TSA2, and PpMADS10 onto the Bin1:73 on the same linkage group between the markers Lap-1 and FGA8. Our results provided the basis for further dissection of the two MADS box gene function.

Grey-box state-space identification of nonlinear mechanical vibrations

Science.gov (United States)

Noël, J. P.; Schoukens, J.

2018-05-01

The present paper deals with the identification of nonlinear mechanical vibrations. A grey-box, or semi-physical, nonlinear state-space representation is introduced, expressing the nonlinear basis functions using a limited number of measured output variables. This representation assumes that the observed nonlinearities are localised in physical space, which is a generic case in mechanics. A two-step identification procedure is derived for the grey-box model parameters, integrating nonlinear subspace initialisation and weighted least-squares optimisation. The complete procedure is applied to an electrical circuit mimicking the behaviour of a single-input, single-output (SISO) nonlinear mechanical system and to a single-input, multiple-output (SIMO) geometrically nonlinear beam structure.

Alteration of Box-Jenkins methodology by implementing genetic algorithm method

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Zuhaimy; Maarof, Mohd Zulariffin Md; Fadzli, Mohammad

2015-02-01

A time series is a set of values sequentially observed through time. The Box-Jenkins methodology is a systematic method of identifying, fitting, checking and using integrated autoregressive moving average time series model for forecasting. Box-Jenkins method is an appropriate for a medium to a long length (at least 50) time series data observation. When modeling a medium to a long length (at least 50), the difficulty arose in choosing the accurate order of model identification level and to discover the right parameter estimation. This presents the development of Genetic Algorithm heuristic method in solving the identification and estimation models problems in Box-Jenkins. Data on International Tourist arrivals to Malaysia were used to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method. The forecast results that generated from this proposed model outperformed single traditional Box-Jenkins model.

Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

2002-12-01

The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Montoya, M L [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1999-07-01

Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich auch

Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Montoya, M.L. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

1999-07-01

Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich

Two Point Correlation Functions for a Periodic Box-Ball System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Mada

2011-03-01

Full Text Available We investigate correlation functions in a periodic box-ball system. For the second and the third nearest neighbor correlation functions, we give explicit formulae obtained by combinatorial methods. A recursion formula for a specific N-point functions is also presented.

Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

2014-05-01

It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

Arrays of Cooper pair boxes coupled to a superconducting reservoir: 'superradiance' and 'revival'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodrigues, D A; Gyoerffy, B L; Spiller, T P

2004-01-01

We consider an array of l b Cooper pair boxes, each of which is coupled to a superconducting reservoir by a capacitive tunnel junction. We discuss two effects that probe not just the quantum nature of the islands, but also of the superconducting reservoir coupled to them. These are analogues to the well-known quantum optical effects 'superradiance' and 'revival'. When revival is extended to multiple systems, we find that 'entanglement revival' can also be observed. In order to study the above effects, we utilize a highly simplified model for these systems in which all the single-electron energy eigenvalues are set to be the same (the strong coupling limit), as are the charging energies of the Cooper pair boxes, allowing the whole system to be represented by two coupled quantum spins, one finite, which represents the array of boxes, and one representing the reservoir, which we consider in the limit of infinite size. Although this simplification is drastic, the model retains the main features necessary to capture the phenomena of interest. Given the progress in superconducting box experiments over recent years, it is possible that experiments to investigate both of these interesting quantum coherent phenomena could be performed in the foreseeable future

Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhatt, Uma S. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Wackerbauer, Renate [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Polyakov, Igor V. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences; Newman, David E. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Physics; Sanchez, Raul E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Fusion Energy Division; Univ. Carlos III de Madrid (Spain)

2015-11-13

The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Mahowald

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

Heart Rate and Liking During "Kinect Boxing" Versus "Wii Boxing": The Potential for Enjoyable Vigorous Physical Activity Videogames.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Gabriel J; Peacock, Corey A; Barkley, Jacob E; Gish, Brian; Brock, Scott; Volpenhein, Josh

2015-08-01

Nintendo(®) (Kyoto, Japan) "Wii™ Sports Boxing" ("Wii Boxing") and Xbox(®) (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) "Kinect(®) Sports Boxing" ("Kinect Boxing") are both boxing simulation videogames that are available for two different active videogame (AVG) systems. Although these AVGs are similar, the style of gameplay required is different (i.e., upper body only versus total body movements) and may alter physical activity intensity and one's preference for playing one game over the other. AVGs that elicit the greatest physiologic challenge and are preferred by users should be identified in an effort to enhance the efficacy of physical activity interventions and programs that include AVGs. The mean heart rate (HRmean) and peak heart rate (HRpeak) for 27 adults (22.7±4.2 years old) were recorded during four 10-minute conditions: seated rest, treadmill walking at 3 miles/hour, "Wii Boxing," and "Kinect Boxing." Upon completion of all four conditions, participants indicated which condition they preferred, and HRmean and HRpeak were calculated as a percentage of age-predicted maximum heart rate to classify physical activity intensity for the three activity conditions (treadmill, "Wii Boxing," and "Kinect Boxing"). "Kinect Boxing" significantly (P<0.001) increased percentage HRmean (64.1±1.6 percent of age-predicted maximum) and percentage HRpeak (76.5±1.9 percent) above all other conditions: Wii HRmean, 53.0±1.2 percent; Wii HRpeak, 61.8±1.5 percent; treadmill HRmean, 52.4±1.2 percent; treadmill HRpeak, 55.2±2.2 percent. Percentage HRpeak for "Kinect Boxing" was great enough to be considered a vigorous-intensity physical activity. There was no difference (P=0.55) in percentage HRmean between "Wii Boxing" and treadmill walking. Participants also preferred "Kinect Boxing" (P<0.001; n=26) to all other conditions ("Wii Boxing," n=1; treadmill n=0). "Kinect Boxing" was the most preferred and the only condition that was physiologically challenging enough to be classified as a

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

Science.gov (United States)

Myoung, Boksoon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Park, Seon Ki

2011-11-01

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson's rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.

From field data to numerical models: application of the Box-Model to infer the dynamics of PDC generated during the AD 79 eruption of Somma-Vesuvio

Science.gov (United States)

Tadini, Alessandro; Neri, Augusto; Cioni, Raffaello; Bevilacqua, Andrea; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Gurioli, Lucia

2017-04-01

The purpose of this work is to present a validation procedure for a physical and numerical model of Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDC) using feedbacks from well-known deposits emplaced by specific single eruptive units. The study is specifically focused on the PDCs generated during the overall famous AD 79 eruption of the Somma-Vesuvio volcano. To this purpose, values of the maximum runout, volumes and Total Grain Size Distributions have been estimated for two eruptive units (i.e. EU3pf and EU4; Cioni et al. 2000) of the AD 79 eruption. These units have been used to define the input volcanological parameters for testing the Box-Model of Dade and Huppert (1995), when reproducing one specific end-member of the complex spectrum of PDCs, that is the more dilute, turbulent part of the PDCs reconstructed in the Somma-Vesuvio record (stratified flows with concentration of solid particles in volume up to about 5%). The Box-Model is a kinematic approach, which calculates the flow density and velocity along time and the kinetic energy of the flow front. This can be compared with the potential energy needed to overcome topographic obstacles to estimate flow invasion across complex topographies. Validation of the model has been performed with respect to: i) the degree of overlapping between inundation areas given by the model and by field data; ii) the thickness of the deposit versus the thickness of the model output with distance; iii) the mass fractions of the different grain size classes with distance in the real deposit versus the model output. Several simulations have been performed considering i) polydisperse (with 10 grain size classes) and monodisperse (with the Mdφ values) systems; ii) a direct version (where the initial volume is released and the invasion area is computed) and an inverse version (where the initial collapsing volume is a function of an inundation area defined by the user); iii) axisymmetrical and asymmetrical collapses. Results allow to obtain first

Construction of a novel economy-climate model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

CHOU JieMing; DONG WenJie; YE DuZheng

2007-01-01

An attempt has been made to construct a novel economy-climate model by combining climate change research with agricultural economy research to evaluate the influence of global climate change on grain yields. The insertion of a climate change factor into the economic C-D (Cobb-Dauglas) production function model yields a novel evaluation model, which connects the climate change factor to the economic variation factor, and the performance and reasonableness of the novel evaluation model are also preliminarily simulated and verified.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

Hydrogen atom within spherical boxes with penetrable walls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ley-Koo, E.; Rubinstein, S.

1979-01-01

We study a model for the hydrogen atom confined within spherical boxes with penetrable walls. The potential consists of the Coulomb potential inside the box and a constant potential outside the box; the Schroedinger equation admits analytical solutions in both regions. The energy eigenvalues and eigenfunctions for the lowest states of the system are determined numerically for boxes of different sizes and penetrabilities. In addition, we also evaluate the hyperfine splitting, nuclear magnetic shielding, polarizability and pressure of the system and investigate the effect of the confinement on these atomic properties

Double Length Regressions for Testing the Box-Cox Difference Transformation.

OpenAIRE

Park, Timothy

1991-01-01

The Box-Cox difference transformation is used to determine the appropriate specification for estimation of hedge ratios and a new double length regression form of the Lagrange multiplier test is presented for the difference transformation. The Box-Cox difference transformation allows the testing of the first difference model and the returns model as special cases of the Box-Cox difference transformation. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models

Science.gov (United States)

Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James I Watling

Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric photochemical reactivity and ozone production at two sites in Hong Kong: Application of a Master Chemical Mechanism-photochemical box model

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Z. H.; Guo, H.; Lam, S. H. M.; Saunders, S. M.; Wang, T.

2014-09-01

A photochemical box model incorporating the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2), constrained with a full suite of measurements, was developed to investigate the photochemical reactivity of volatile organic compounds at a semirural site (Mount Tai Mo Shan (TMS)) and an urban site (Tsuen Wan (TW)) in Hong Kong. The levels of ozone (O3) and its precursors, and the magnitudes of the reactivity of O3 precursors, revealed significant differences in the photochemistry at the two sites. Simulated peak hydroperoxyl radical (HO2) mixing ratios were similar at TW and TMS (p = 0.05), while the simulated hydroxyl radical (OH) mixing ratios were much higher at TW (p TMS, but at TW, both HCHO and O3 photolyses were found to be major contributors. By contrast, radical-radical reactions governed HOx radical losses at TMS, while at TW, the OH + NO2 reaction was found to dominate in the morning and the radical-radical reactions at noon. Overall, the conversion of NO to NO2 by HO2 dictated the O3 production at the two sites, while O3 destruction was dominated by the OH + NO2 reaction at TW, and at TMS, O3 photolysis and the O3 + HO2 reaction were the major mechanisms. The longer OH chain length at TMS indicated that more O3 was produced for each radical that was generated at this site.

A class of Box-Cox transformation models for recurrent event data.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Liuquan; Tong, Xingwei; Zhou, Xian

2011-04-01

In this article, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation models for recurrent event data, which includes the proportional means models as special cases. The new model offers great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean functions of counting processes while leaving the stochastic structure completely unspecified. For the inference on the proposed models, we apply a profile pseudo-partial likelihood method to estimate the model parameters via estimating equation approaches and establish large sample properties of the estimators and examine its performance in moderate-sized samples through simulation studies. In addition, some graphical and numerical procedures are presented for model checking. An example of application on a set of multiple-infection data taken from a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is also illustrated.

Mesostructure, contemporary training model of the Cuban boxing school

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Hernández Sierra

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The present work aims to convey the experiences on the development and application of a meso-structure of 3-4 microcycles that allowed maintaining a long state of the sport form (5-6 months on a scientific-technical and methodological basis in the planning of the Sports training of the national boxing team, who participated in the 4th World Boxing Series (WSB. The investigated sample consisted of 21 boxers, representing 58%, of a population made up of 36 athletes / students belonging to the National School of Boxing. The importance of the research is that it exposes the use of new planning concepts and the current modifications in the training structure, as well as the contribution of science to the adaptation of training loads, which allows to obtain positive results during a long period of time. state of the sport form, factors on which it is necessary to reflect for an effective planning of modern sports training.

Interspecific and intraspecific spatial separation by birds breeding in nest boxes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denis C. Deeming

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Nest boxes can be seen as a conservation tool for improving low-grade nesting habitat but it is unclear how sympatric species using boxes establish a spatial distribution relative to conspecifics and heterospecifics. This study determined the distances between nest boxes occupied by Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tits (Parus major in two British woodlands to ascertain whether spatial distribution was affected by species and, if it was, whether there were reproductive consequences of this breeding distribution. Occupancy of nest boxes at two woodland sites were recorded on an annual basis between 2010 and 2014, inclusive. Distances between nest boxes, and reproductive activity, were recorded. Even if nest boxes showed a clumped distribution in the woodlands, the occupancy of the boxes was random. Not all boxes were used and the minimum distance between occupied boxes was at least twice the distance between boxes in general. Blue Tits tended to have greater distances between boxes containing conspecifics but distances between boxes containing heterospecifics were generally of comparable lengths. Reproductive output was only affected in relation to clutch size for Blue Tits nesting at one site. Nest boxes that aim to improve habitats that lack suitable nesting sites should be placed to reflect actual dispersal distances of the focal bird species.

Construction of dry-boxes for plutonium metallurgy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grison, E.; Pascard, R.

1958-01-01

The dry-boxes used at Chatillon are of two main types: a) boxes with a metal frame work of welded angle-pieces, panels of plexiglass, bakelite, duralumin, etc... They include a standard panel which enables them to be connected up to the contaminated repairs workshop; b) boxes made entirely of welded plastic. The working face only is of plexiglas held by screw clamps to a pure rubber joint. These boxes, which cannot be connected to the contaminated workshop, are generally reserved for small pieces of chemical apparatus. None has yet been used for working under argon, although their airtightness is excellent. After an interval of several hours, in fact, no decrease in the pressure inside the box can be detected. Several means can be adopted to ensure that the joints between panels and mountings are absolutely air-tight. Up to the present we are using three types of box with metal framework at the same time, without being able to make a definitive choice. (author) [fr

CO/sub 2/ carbon cycle and climate interactions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Maier-Reimer, E; Degens, E T; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1984-03-01

Past and expected emissions of anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ stimulate carbon cycle and climate research. Prognoses of future CO/sub 2/ levels depend on energy scenarios and on the reaction of the biosphere and hydrosphere to elevated atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations. The reaction of the reservoirs vegetation, freshwater and oceans to disturbances of the carbon cycle is reviewed. For the oceans first results of a simple carbon cycle model implanted in a three-dimensional general circulation model are presented. This model allows experiments not possible with previous box models.

Study on structural integrity in box structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asano, Masayuki; Ueta, Masahiro; Kanaoka, Tadashi; Ikeuchi, Toshiaki; Kodama, Tetsuhiro.

1991-01-01

This study was carried out to give an experimental foundation to the structural integrity of a box structure. Crack growth tests were performed on the reduced scale models, simulating typical portions of the box structure, in air at room temperature. The results show that the amount of crack growth is too small to injure the structural integrity of the models for the postulated loading cycle, and make clear the effective structure against crack growth. (author)

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2016-01-01

Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2016-01-01

Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

LINKING MICROBES TO CLIMATE: INCORPORATING MICROBIAL ACTIVITY INTO CLIMATE MODELS COLLOQUIUM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeLong, Edward; Harwood, Caroline; Reid, Ann

2011-01-01

This report explains the connection between microbes and climate, discusses in general terms what modeling is and how it applied to climate, and discusses the need for knowledge in microbial physiology, evolution, and ecology to contribute to the determination of fluxes and rates in climate models. It recommends with a multi-pronged approach to address the gaps.

Hemoadsorption of high-mobility-group box 1 using a porous polymethylmethacrylate fiber in a swine acute liver failure model.

Science.gov (United States)

Amemiya, Ryusuke; Shinoda, Masahiro; Yamada, Masayuki; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Shimada, Kaoru; Fujieda, Hiroaki; Yagi, Hiroshi; Mizota, Takamasa; Nishiyama, Ryo; Oshima, Go; Yamada, Shingo; Matsubara, Kentaro; Abe, Yuta; Hibi, Taizo; Kitago, Minoru; Obara, Hideaki; Itano, Osamu; Kitagawa, Yuko

2018-04-01

High-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 has been identified as an important mediator of various kinds of acute and chronic inflammation. In this study, we aimed to develop a column that effectively adsorbs high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 by altering the pore size of the fiber. First, we produced three types of porous polymethylmethacrylate fiber by altering the concentration of polymethylmethacrylate dissolved in dimethylsulfoxide. We then selected a fiber based on the results of an in vitro incubation test of high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 adsorption. Using the selected fiber, we constructed a new column and tested its high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 adsorption capacity during 4-h extracorporeal hemoperfusion in a swine acute liver failure model. Electron microscope observation showed that the three types of fibers had different pore sizes on the surface and in cross section, which were dependent on the concentration of polymethylmethacrylate. In the in vitro incubation test, fiber with moderate-sized pores demonstrated the highest adsorption capacity. In the in vivo hemoperfusion study, the ratio of the high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 concentration at the outlet versus the inlet of the column was significantly lower with the new column than with the control column during 4-h extracorporeal hemoperfusion. The normalized plasma level of high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 at 12 h after the completion of hemoperfusion was significantly lower with the new column than with the control column. The newly developed polymethylmethacrylate column adsorbs high-mobility-group box chromosomal protein 1 during hemoperfusion in swine ALF model.

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

2015-10-01

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO₂ concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

Injury risk in professional boxing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bledsoe, Gregory H; Li, Guohu; Levy, Fred

2005-10-01

Although a popular endeavor, boxing has fallen under increased scrutiny because of its association with traumatic brain injury. However, few studies have investigated the overall epidemiology of boxing injuries from representative samples, and no study has ever documented the incidence of injuries in female boxers. This study is a review of professional boxing data from the state of Nevada from September 2001 through March 2003. Medical and outcome data for all professional boxing matches occurring in Nevada between September 2001 and March 2003 (n = 524 matches) were analyzed on the basis of a pair-matched, case-control design. Cases were boxers who received an injury during the boxing matches. Boxers who were not injured served as control subjects. Both conditional and unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors for injury. The overall incidence rate of injury was 17.1 per 100 boxer-matches, or 3.4 per 100 boxer-rounds. Facial laceration accounted for 51% of all injuries, followed by hand injury (17%), eye injury (14%), and nose injury (5%). Male boxers were significantly more likely than female boxers to receive injuries (3.6 versus 1.2 per 100 boxer-rounds, P = 0.01). Male boxing matches also ended in knockouts and technical knockouts more often than did female matches (P boxing matches is high, particularly among male boxers. Superficial facial lacerations are the most common injury reported. Male boxers have a higher rate of knockout and technical knockouts than female boxers. Further research is necessary to determine the outcomes of injury, particularly the long-term neurologic outcome differences between sexes.

ArduiPod Box: a low-cost and open-source Skinner box using an iPod Touch and an Arduino microcontroller.

Science.gov (United States)

Pineño, Oskar

2014-03-01

This article introduces the ArduiPod Box, an open-source device built using two main components (i.e., an iPod Touch and an Arduino microcontroller), developed as a low-cost alternative to the standard operant conditioning chamber, or "Skinner box." Because of its affordability, the ArduiPod Box provides an opportunity for educational institutions with small budgets seeking to set up animal laboratories for research and instructional purposes. A pilot experiment is also presented, which shows that the ArduiPod Box, in spite of its extraordinary simplicity, can be effectively used to study animal learning and behavior.

Object-oriented process dose modeling for glove-box operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boerigter, S.T.; Fasel, J.H.; Kornreich, D.E.

1999-01-01

The Plutonium Facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) supports several defense- and non-defense-related missions for the country by performing fabrication, surveillance, and research and development for materials and components that contain plutonium. Most operations occur in rooms with one or more arrays of glove boxes connected to each other via trolley glove boxes. Each room may contain glove boxes dedicated to several different operations or functions. Minimizing the effective dose equivalent (EDE) is a growing concern as a result of steadily allowable dose limits being imposed and a growing general awareness of safety in the workplace. In general, the authors discriminate three components of a worker's total EDE: the primary EDE, the secondary EDE, and background EDE. The immediate sources to which a worker is exposed provide the primary EDE. The secondary EDE results from operations and sources in the same vicinity or room as the worker. The background EDE results from all other sources of radiation, such as natural sources and sources outside of the room. A particular background source of interest is the nuclear materials vault. The distinction between sources inside and outside of a particular room is arbitrary with the underlying assumption that building walls and floors provide significant shielding to justify including sources in other rooms in the background category. An associated paper details the tool that they use to determine the primary and secondary EDEs for all processes of interest in a room containing glove boxes

Inverse grey-box model-based control of a dielectric elastomer actuator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Richard William; Sarban, Rahimullah

2012-01-01

control performance across the operating range of the DE actuator, a gain scheduling term, which linearizes the operating characteristics of the tubular dielectric elastomer actuator, is developed and implemented in series with the IMC controller. The IMC-based approach is investigated for servo control......An accurate physical-based electromechanical model of a commercially available tubular dielectric elastomer (DE) actuator has been developed and validated. In this contribution, the use of the physical-based electromechanical model to formulate a model-based controller is examined. The choice...... of control scheme was dictated by the desire for transparency in both controller design and operation. The internal model control (IMC) approach was chosen. In this particular application, the inverse of the linearized form of the grey-box model is used to formulate the IMC controller. To ensure consistent...

Comparison of Two Grid Refinement Approaches for High Resolution Regional Climate Modeling: MPAS vs WRF

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, L.; Hagos, S. M.; Rauscher, S.; Ringler, T.

2012-12-01

This study compares two grid refinement approaches using global variable resolution model and nesting for high-resolution regional climate modeling. The global variable resolution model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), and the limited area model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are compared in an idealized aqua-planet context with a focus on the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical precipitation simulated by the models using the same physics package from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4). For MPAS, simulations have been performed with a quasi-uniform resolution global domain at coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution, and a variable resolution domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree configured inside a coarse resolution global domain at 1 degree resolution. Similarly, WRF has been configured to run on a coarse (1 degree) and high (0.25 degree) resolution tropical channel domain as well as a nested domain with a high-resolution region at 0.25 degree nested two-way inside the coarse resolution (1 degree) tropical channel. The variable resolution or nested simulations are compared against the high-resolution simulations that serve as virtual reality. Both MPAS and WRF simulate 20-day Kelvin waves propagating through the high-resolution domains fairly unaffected by the change in resolution. In addition, both models respond to increased resolution with enhanced precipitation. Grid refinement induces zonal asymmetry in precipitation (heating), accompanied by zonal anomalous Walker like circulations and standing Rossby wave signals. However, there are important differences between the anomalous patterns in MPAS and WRF due to differences in the grid refinement approaches and sensitivity of model physics to grid resolution. This study highlights the need for "scale aware" parameterizations in variable resolution and nested regional models.

46 CFR 111.81-1 - Outlet boxes and junction boxes; general.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... fixture, wiring device, or similar item, including each separately installed connection and junction box... used. (d) As appropriate, each outlet-box or junction-box installation must meet the following...

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Braun

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

Demographic consequences of nest box use for Red-footed Falcons Falco vespertinus in Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Bragin, Evgeny A.; Bragin, Alexander E.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Nest box programs are frequently implemented for the conservation of cavity-nesting birds, but their effectiveness is rarely evaluated in comparison to birds not using nest boxes. In the European Palearctic, Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus populations are both of high conservation concern and are strongly associated with nest box programs in heavily managed landscapes. We used a 21-year monitoring dataset collected on 753 nesting attempts by Red-footed Falcons in unmanaged natural or semi-natural habitats to provide basic information on this poorly known species; to evaluate long-term demographic trends; and to evaluate response of demographic parameters of Red-footed Falcons to environmental factors including use of nest boxes. We observed significant differences among years in laying date, offspring loss, and numbers of fledglings produced, but not in egg production. Of these four parameters, offspring loss and, to a lesser extent, number of fledglings exhibited directional trends over time. Variation in laying date and in numbers of eggs were not well explained by any one model, but instead by combinations of models, each with informative terms for nest type. Nevertheless, laying in nest boxes occurred 2.10 ± 0.70 days earlier than in natural nests. In contrast, variation in both offspring loss and numbers of fledglings produced were fairly well explained by a single model including terms for nest type, nest location, and an interaction between the two parameters (65% and 81% model weights respectively), with highest offspring loss in nest boxes on forest edges. Because, for other species, earlier laying dates are associated with more fit individuals, this interaction highlighted a possible ecological trap, whereby birds using nest boxes on forest edges lay eggs earlier but suffer greater offspring loss and produce lower numbers of fledglings than do those in other nesting settings. If nest boxes increase offspring loss for Red-footed Falcons in heavily

On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solow, A.R.

1991-01-01

Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question. 9 refs

On the statistical comparison of climate model output and climate data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solow, A.R.

1990-01-01

Some broad issues arising in the statistical comparison of the output of climate models with the corresponding climate data are reviewed. Particular attention is paid to the question of detecting climate change. The purpose of this paper is to review some statistical approaches to the comparison of the output of climate models with climate data. There are many statistical issues arising in such a comparison. The author will focus on some of the broader issues, although some specific methodological questions will arise along the way. One important potential application of the approaches discussed in this paper is the detection of climate change. Although much of the discussion will be fairly general, he will try to point out the appropriate connections to the detection question

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Decontamination of TRU glove boxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crawford, J.H.

1978-03-01

Two glove boxes that had been used for work with transuranic nuclides (TRU) for about 12 years were decontaminated in a test program to collect data for developing a decontamination facility for large equipment highly contaminated with alpha emitters. A simple chemical technique consisting of a cycle of water flushes and alkaline permanganate and oxalic acid washes was used for both boxes. The test showed that glove boxes and similar equipment that are grossly contaminated with transuranic nuclides can be decontaminated to the current DIE nonretrievable disposal guide of <10 nCi TRU/g with a moderate amount of decontamination solution and manpower. Decontamination of the first box from an estimated 1.3 Ci to about 5 mCi (6 nCi/g) required 1.3 gallons of decontamination solution and 0.03 man-hour of work for each square foot of surface area. The second box was decontaminated from an estimated 3.4 Ci to about 2.8 mCi (4.2 nCi/g) using 0.9 gallon of decontamination solution and 0.02 man-hour for each square foot of surface area. Further reductions in contamination were achieved by repetitive decontamination cycles, but the effectiveness of the technique decreased sharply after the initial cycle

Explaining electric conductivity using the particle-in-a-box model: quantum superposition is the key

Science.gov (United States)

Sivanesan, Umaseh; Tsang, Kin; Izmaylov, Artur F.

2017-12-01

Most of the textbooks explaining electric conductivity in the context of quantum mechanics provide either incomplete or semi-classical explanations that are not connected with the elementary concepts of quantum mechanics. We illustrate the conduction phenomena using the simplest model system in quantum dynamics, a particle in a box (PIB). To induce the particle dynamics, a linear potential tilting the bottom of the box is introduced, which is equivalent to imposing a constant electric field for a charged particle. Although the PIB model represents a closed system that cannot have a flow of electrons through the system, we consider the oscillatory dynamics of the particle probability density as the analogue of the electric current. Relating the amplitude and other parameters of the particle oscillatory dynamics with the gap between the ground and excited states of the PIB model allows us to demonstrate one of the most basic dependencies of electric conductivity on the valence-conduction band gap of the material.

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Evaluation of two ozone air quality modelling systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Ortega

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare two different modelling systems and to evaluate their ability to simulate high values of ozone concentration in typical summer episodes which take place in the north of Spain near the metropolitan area of Barcelona. As the focus of the paper is the comparison of the two systems, we do not attempt to improve the agreement by adjusting the emission inventory or model parameters. The first model, or forecasting system, is made up of three modules. The first module is a mesoscale model (MASS. This provides the initial condition for the second module, which is a nonlocal boundary layer model based on the transilient turbulence scheme. The third module is a photochemical box model (OZIPR, which is applied in Eulerian and Lagrangian modes and receives suitable information from the two previous modules. The model forecast is evaluated against ground base stations during summer 2001. The second model is the MM5/UAM-V. This is a grid model designed to predict the hourly three-dimensional ozone concentration fields. The model is applied during an ozone episode that occurred between 21 and 23 June 2001. Our results reflect the good performance of the two modelling systems when they are used in a specific episode.

Predictive habitat models derived from nest-box occupancy for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel in the southern Appalachians

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, W. Mark; Evans, A.M.; Odom, Richard H.; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kelly, C.A.; Abaid, Nicole; Diggins, Corinne A.; Newcomb, Doug

2016-01-01

In the southern Appalachians, artificial nest-boxes are used to survey for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus), a disjunct subspecies associated with high elevation (>1385 m) forests. Using environmental parameters diagnostic of squirrel habitat, we created 35 a priori occupancy models in the program PRESENCE for boxes surveyed in western North Carolina, 1996-2011. Our best approximating model showed CNFS denning associated with sheltered landforms and montane conifers, primarily red spruce Picea rubens. As sheltering decreased, decreasing distance to conifers was important. Area with a high probability (>0.5) of occupancy was distributed over 18662 ha of habitat, mostly across 10 mountain ranges. Because nest-box surveys underrepresented areas >1750 m and CNFS forage in conifers, we combined areas of high occupancy with conifer GIS coverages to create an additional distribution model of likely habitat. Regionally, above 1385 m, we determined that 31795 ha could be occupied by CNFS. Known occupied patches ranged from

Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.

1994-01-01

An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented

Non-local boxes and their implementation in Minecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Simnacher, Timo Yannick

PR-boxes are binary devices connecting two remote parties satisfying x AND y = a + b mod 2, where x and y denote the binary inputs and a and b are the respective outcomes without signaling. These devices are named after their inventors Sandu Popescu and Daniel Rohrlich and saturate the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) inequality. This Bell-like inequality bounds the correlation that can exist between two remote, non-signaling, classical systems described by local hidden variable theories. Experiments have now convincingly shown that quantum entanglement cannot be explained by local hidden variable theories. Furthermore, the CHSH inequality provides a method to distinguish quantum systems from super-quantum correlations. The correlation between the outputs of the PR-box goes beyond any quantum entanglement. Though PR-boxes would have impressive consequences, as far as we know they are not physically realizable. However, by introducing PR-boxes to Minecraft as part of the redstone system, which simulates the electrical components for binary computing, we can experience the consequences of super-quantum correlations. For instance, Wim van Dam proved that two parties can use a sufficient number of PR-boxes to compute any Boolean function f(x,y) with only one bit of communication.

Reconstructing Holocene climate using a climate model: Model strategy and preliminary results

Science.gov (United States)

Haberkorn, K.; Blender, R.; Lunkeit, F.; Fraedrich, K.

2009-04-01

An Earth system model of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator; PlaSim) is used to reconstruct Holocene climate based on proxy data. The Planet Simulator is a user friendly general circulation model (GCM) suitable for palaeoclimate research. Its easy handling and the modular structure allow for fast and problem dependent simulations. The spectral model is based on the moist primitive equations conserving momentum, mass, energy and moisture. Besides the atmospheric part, a mixed layer-ocean with sea ice and a land surface with biosphere are included. The present-day climate of PlaSim, based on an AMIP II control-run (T21/10L resolution), shows reasonable agreement with ERA-40 reanalysis data. Combining PlaSim with a socio-technological model (GLUES; DFG priority project INTERDYNAMIK) provides improved knowledge on the shift from hunting-gathering to agropastoral subsistence societies. This is achieved by a data assimilation approach, incorporating proxy time series into PlaSim to initialize palaeoclimate simulations during the Holocene. For this, the following strategy is applied: The sensitivities of the terrestrial PlaSim climate are determined with respect to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, the focus is the impact of regionally varying SST both in the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The inverse of these sensitivities is used to determine the SST conditions necessary for the nudging of land and coastal proxy climates. Preliminary results indicate the potential, the uncertainty and the limitations of the method.

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

Science.gov (United States)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European

Tensor product of no-signaling boxes in the framework of quantum logics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylec, T I; Kuś, M

2017-01-01

In the quantum logic framework we show that the no-signaling box model is a particular type of tensor product with single box logics. Such notion of a tensor product is too strong to apply in the category of logics of quantum mechanical systems. In the light of the obtained results, the statement that no-signaling box models are generalizations of quantum models is questionable. (letter)

Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.

2013-01-01

Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated...... with coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

Modelling the climate of the last millennium: what causes the differences between simulations?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goosse, H.; Crowley, T.J.; Zorita, E.; Ammann, C.M.; Renssen, H.; Driesschaert, E.

2005-01-01

An ensemble of simulations performed with a coarse resolution 3-D climate model driven by various combinations of external forcing is used to investigate possible causes for differences noticed in two recent simulations of the climate of the past millennium using General Circulation Models (GCMs).

Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

2018-05-01

In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

2015-12-01

Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

Energy savings assessment for digital-to-analog converter boxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheung, Hoi Ying; Meier, Alan; Brown, Richard

2011-01-01

The Digital Television (DTV) Converter Box Coupon Program was administered by the U.S. government to subsidize purchases of digital-to-analog converter boxes, with up to two $40 coupons for each eligible household. In order to qualify as Coupon Eligible Converter Boxes (CECBs), these devices had to meet a number of minimum performance specifications, including energy efficiency standards. The Energy Star Program also established voluntary energy efficiency specifications that are more stringent than the CECB requirements. In this study, we measured the power and energy consumptions for a sample of 12 CECBs (including 6 Energy Star labeled models) in-use in homes and estimated aggregate energy savings produced by the energy efficiency policies. Based on the 35 million coupons redeemed through the end of the program, our analysis indicates that between 2500 and 3700 GWh per year are saved as a result of the energy efficiency policies implemented on digital-to-analog converter boxes. The energy savings generated are equivalent to the annual electricity use of 280,000 average US homes. - Research highlights: → We examined energy efficiency policies on digital-to-analog converter boxes in US. → The government assistance program resulted in high participation. → 35 million coupons were redeemed for the purchases of energy efficient DTAs. → Between 2500 and 3700 GWh per year are saved as a result of the policies. → Savings are equivalent to the annual electricity use of 280,000 average US homes.

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

Modeling and assessing international climate financing

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

2016-06-01

Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

Fitting boxes to Manhattan scenes using linear integer programming

KAUST Repository

Li, Minglei

2016-02-19

We propose an approach for automatic generation of building models by assembling a set of boxes using a Manhattan-world assumption. The method first aligns the point cloud with a per-building local coordinate system, and then fits axis-aligned planes to the point cloud through an iterative regularization process. The refined planes partition the space of the data into a series of compact cubic cells (candidate boxes) spanning the entire 3D space of the input data. We then choose to approximate the target building by the assembly of a subset of these candidate boxes using a binary linear programming formulation. The objective function is designed to maximize the point cloud coverage and the compactness of the final model. Finally, all selected boxes are merged into a lightweight polygonal mesh model, which is suitable for interactive visualization of large scale urban scenes. Experimental results and a comparison with state-of-the-art methods demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

Channel box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanabe, Akira.

1993-01-01

In a channel box of a BWR type reactor, protruding pads are disposed in axial position on the lateral side of a channel box opposing to a control rod and facing the outer side portion of the control rod in a reactor core loaded state. In the initial loading stage of fuel assemblies, channel fasteners and spacer pads are abutted against each other in the upper portion between the channel boxes sandwiching the control rod therebetween. Further, in the lower portion, a gap as a channel for the movement of the control rod is ensured by the support of fuel support metals. If the channel box is bent toward the control rod along with reactor operation, the pads are abutted against each other to always ensure the gap through which the control rod can move easily. Further, when the pads are brought into contact with each other, the bending deformation of the channel box is corrected by urging to each other. Thus, the control rod can always be moved smoothly to attain reactor safety operation. (N.H.)

Future directions in climate modeling: A climate impacts perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mearns, L.O.

1990-01-01

One of the most serious impediments to further progress on the determination of specific impacts of climate change on relevant earth systems is the lack of precise and accurate scenarios of regional change. Spatial resolution of models is generally coarse (5-10 degree, corresponding to 550-1,100 km), and the modeling of physical processes is quite crude. Three main areas in which improvements in the modeling of physical processes are being made are modeling of surface processes, modeling of oceans and coupling of oceans and atmospheric models, and modeling of clouds. Improvements are required in the modeling of surface hydrology and vegetative effects, which have significant impact on the albedo scheme used. Oceans are important in climate modeling for the following reasons: delay of warming due to oceanic heat absorption; effect of mean meridional circulation; control of regional patterns of sea surface temperatures and sea ice by wind driven currents; absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the oceans; and determination of interannual climatic variability via variability in sea surface temperature. The effects of clouds on radiation balance is highly significant. Clouds both reflect shortwave radiation and trap longwave radiation. Most cloud properties are sub-grid scale and thus difficult to include explicitly in models. 25 refs., 1 tab

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Coordinate reconstruction using box reconstruction and projection of X-ray photo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Achmad Suntoro

2011-01-01

Some mathematical formula have been derived for a process of reconstruction to define the coordinate of any point relative to a pre set coordinate system. The process of reconstruction uses a reconstruction box in which each edge's length of the box is known, each top-bottom face and left-right face of the box having a cross marker, and the top face and the right face of the box as plane projections by X-ray source in perspective projection -system. Using the data of the two X-ray projection images, any point inside the reconstruction box, as long as its projection is recorded in the two photos, will be determined its coordinate relative to the midpoint of the reconstruction box as the central point coordinates. (author)

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

Science.gov (United States)

Quackenbush, A.

2015-12-01

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model

A dynamic box model of bioactive elements in the southern Taiwan Strait

Science.gov (United States)

Hua-Sheng, Hong; Shao-Ling, Shang

1994-06-01

A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO4-P, NO3-N, AOU, POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on the field data of the “Minnan Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground Upwelling Ecosystem Study” during the period of Dec. 1987-Nov. 1988. According to the unique hydrological and topographical features of the region, six boxes and three layers were considered in the model. The variation rates and fluxes of elements induced by horizontal current, upwelling, by diffusion, sinking of particles and biogeochemical processes were estimated respectively. Results further confirmed that upwellings had important effects in this region. The nearshore upwelling areas had net input fluxes of nutrients brought by upwelling water, also had high depletion rates of nutrients and production rates of particulate organic matter and dissolved oxygen. The abnormal net production of nutrients in the middle layer, (10-30 m) indicated the important role of bacteria in this high production region. The phytoplankton POC contributed about 28% of the total POC. POC settling out from the euphotic zone was estimated to be 2×10-6 g/(m2·s) which was about 35% of the primary production.

Pion in a box

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bietenholz, W.; Rakow, P.E.L.; Schierholz, G.; Regensburg Univ.

2010-02-01

The residual mass of the pion in a finite spatial box at vanishing quark masses is computed with two flavors of dynamical clover fermions. The result is compared with predictions of chiral perturbation theory in the δ regime. (orig.)

Strategies for Teaching Regional Climate Modeling: Online Professional Development for Scientists and Decision Makers

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, P.; Yarker, M. B.; Mesquita, M. D. S.; Otto, F. E. L.

2014-12-01

There is a clear role for climate science in supporting decision making at a range of scales and in a range of contexts: from Global to local, from Policy to Industry. However, clear a role climate science can play, there is also a clear discrepancy in the understanding of how to use the science and associated tools (such as climate models). Despite there being a large body of literature on the science there is clearly a need to provide greater support in how to apply appropriately. However, access to high quality professional development courses can be problematic, due to geographic, financial and time constraints. In attempt to address this gap we independently developed two online professional courses that focused on helping participants use and apply two regional climate models, WRF and PRECIS. Both courses were designed to support participants' learning through tutor led programs that covered the basic climate scientific principles of regional climate modeling and how to apply model outputs. The fundamental differences between the two courses are: 1) the WRF modeling course expected participants to design their own research question that was then run on a version of the model, whereas 2) the PRECIS course concentrated on the principles of regional modeling and how the climate science informed the modeling process. The two courses were developed to utilise the cost and time management benefits associated with eLearning, with the recognition that this mode of teaching can also be accessed internationally, providing professional development courses in countries that may not be able to provide their own. The development teams saw it as critical that the courses reflected sound educational theory, to ensure that participants had the maximum opportunity to learn successfully. In particular, the role of reflection is central to both course structures to help participants make sense of the science in relation to their own situation. This paper details the different

Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Svenn

2012-11-01

With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantore, Nicola

2011-01-01

The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

Decorated-box-diagram contributions to Bhabha scattering. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faeldt, G.; Osland, P.

1994-01-01

We evaluate, in the light-energy limit, s>>vertical stroke tvertical stroke >>m 2 >>λ 2 , the sum of amplitudes corresponding to a class of Feynman diagrams describing two-loop virtual photonic corrections to Bhabha scattering. The diagrams considered are box and crossed-box diagrams with an extra photon decorating one of the fermion lines. The mathematical method employed is that of Mellin transforms. In the eikonal approximation, this sum of two-loop amplitudes has previously been evaluated, and found to be equal to the sum of the box and crossed-box amplitudes, multiplied by the electric form factor of the electron. We obtain a similar factorization, but with the form factor replaced by another expression involving the logarithms log(λ 2 /m 2 ) and log(λ 2 /vertical stroke tvertical stroke ). (orig.)

Air tight electrical box

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pringle, C.G.

1990-08-14

An air-impervious electrical box to facilitate air sealing a house comprises an integral, rigid box body having a continuous flange, integral with the body, circumscribing and outwardly extending from the sides of the body. This flange is rearwardly positioned behind the front edges of the sides of the body a predetermined distance so that the electrical box may be secured to framing by nailing through the flange. Drywall is then secured to the frame on top of and adjecent to the flange. Such box eliminates the necessity for solid backing and minimizes passage of air through the box and space between the drywall and the box.

Deep Cuboid Detection: Beyond 2D Bounding Boxes

OpenAIRE

Dwibedi, Debidatta; Malisiewicz, Tomasz; Badrinarayanan, Vijay; Rabinovich, Andrew

2016-01-01

We present a Deep Cuboid Detector which takes a consumer-quality RGB image of a cluttered scene and localizes all 3D cuboids (box-like objects). Contrary to classical approaches which fit a 3D model from low-level cues like corners, edges, and vanishing points, we propose an end-to-end deep learning system to detect cuboids across many semantic categories (e.g., ovens, shipping boxes, and furniture). We localize cuboids with a 2D bounding box, and simultaneously localize the cuboid's corners,...

Material and Thickness Grading for Aeroelastic Tailoring of the Common Research Model Wing Box

Science.gov (United States)

Stanford, Bret K.; Jutte, Christine V.

2014-01-01

This work quantifies the potential aeroelastic benefits of tailoring a full-scale wing box structure using tailored thickness distributions, material distributions, or both simultaneously. These tailoring schemes are considered for the wing skins, the spars, and the ribs. Material grading utilizes a spatially-continuous blend of two metals: Al and Al+SiC. Thicknesses and material fraction variables are specified at the 4 corners of the wing box, and a bilinear interpolation is used to compute these parameters for the interior of the planform. Pareto fronts detailing the conflict between static aeroelastic stresses and dynamic flutter boundaries are computed with a genetic algorithm. In some cases, a true material grading is found to be superior to a single-material structure.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2014-01-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.

2014-10-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

2018-05-01

It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N

Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

2018-04-01

The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

Soil carbon model alternatives for ECHAM5/JSBACH climate model: Evaluation and impacts on global carbon cycle estimates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thum, T.; Raisanen, P.; Sevanto, S.

2011-01-01

The response of soil organic carbon to climate change might lead to significant feedbacks affecting global warming. This response can be studied by coupled climate-carbon cycle models but so far the description of soil organic carbon cycle in these models has been quite simple. In this work we used...... the coupled climate-carbon cycle model ECHAM5/JSBACH (European Center/Hamburg Model 5/Jena Scheme for Biosphere-Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg) with two different soil carbon modules, namely (1) the original soil carbon model of JSBACH called CBALANCE and (2) a new soil carbon model Yasso07, to study...... the interaction between climate variability and soil organic carbon. Equivalent ECHAM5/JSBACH simulations were conducted using both soil carbon models, with freely varying atmospheric CO2 for the last 30 years (1977-2006). In this study, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and ocean carbon cycle were excluded. The new...

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

Interpreting the climatic effects on xylem functional traits in two Mediterranean oak species: the role of extreme climatic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelo Rita

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of i detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and ii exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI. Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport

Real-time geometric scene estimation for RGBD images using a 3D box shape grammar

Science.gov (United States)

Willis, Andrew R.; Brink, Kevin M.

2016-06-01

This article describes a novel real-time algorithm for the purpose of extracting box-like structures from RGBD image data. In contrast to conventional approaches, the proposed algorithm includes two novel attributes: (1) it divides the geometric estimation procedure into subroutines having atomic incremental computational costs, and (2) it uses a generative "Block World" perceptual model that infers both concave and convex box elements from detection of primitive box substructures. The end result is an efficient geometry processing engine suitable for use in real-time embedded systems such as those on an UAVs where it is intended to be an integral component for robotic navigation and mapping applications.

Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

Science.gov (United States)

Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the

Stochastic Thermodynamics of a Particle in a Box.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zongping; Lan, Yueheng; Quan, H T

2016-10-28

The piston system (particles in a box) is the simplest paradigmatic model in traditional thermodynamics. However, the recently established framework of stochastic thermodynamics (ST) fails to apply to this model system due to the embedded singularity in the potential. In this Letter, we study the ST of a particle in a box by adopting a novel coordinate transformation technique. Through comparing with the exact solution of a breathing harmonic oscillator, we obtain analytical results of work distribution for an arbitrary protocol in the linear response regime and verify various predictions of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. When applying to the Brownian Szilard engine model, we obtain the optimal protocol λ_{t}=λ_{0}2^{t/τ} for a given sufficiently long total time τ. Our study not only establishes a paradigm for studying ST of a particle in a box but also bridges the long-standing gap in the development of ST.

Parametric Design and Rapid Prototyping of Installation Box for Vehicle Terminal PCB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Xingxing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Installation box for vehicle terminal PCB (Printed Circuit Board was took as research object, which is encountered in the process of project developing. Vehicle terminal PCB in actual development process was set as an example, point cloud data were acquired by three coordinate measuring method; Imageware software was used to reconstruct the vehicle terminal PCB model, basic size parameters of vehicle terminal PCB can be got and then design parameters of installation box for vehicle terminal PCB can be determined. Design of the installation box for vehicle terminal PCB was completed based on Solidworks software, then 3D modeling and 2D drawing of installation box for vehicle terminal PCB was gained. Up Plus 2 rapid prototype machine was used to manufacture installation box for vehicle terminal PCB rapidly based on 3D printing technology, then prototype of installation box for vehicle terminal PCB was obtained. It is of certain engineering significant for single (small amount manufacturing of installation box for general PCB.

Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

2011-12-01

Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

1992-01-01

An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

Grey-box Modeling for System Identification of Household Refrigerators: a Step Toward Smart Appliances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costanzo, Giuseppe Tommaso; Sossan, Fabrizio; Marinelli, Mattia

2013-01-01

units, which operation can be shifted within temperature and operational constraints. Even if the refrigerators are not intended to be used as smart loads, validated models are useful in predicting units consumption. This information can increase the optimality of the management of other flexible units......This paper presents the grey-box modeling of a vapor-compression refrigeration system for residential applications based on maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in stochastic differential equations. Models obtained are useful in the view of controlling refrigerators as flexible consumption...

Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

2016-01-01

A dynamic coupled biogeochemical–ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. - Highlights: • The effects of N atmospheric deposition and climate change on vegetation were simulated. • The model ForSAFE-Veg was calibrated and validated carefully for three forests in France. • Climate has a greater influence on vegetation than N deposition in conifer forests. • N-poor ecosystems are, however, more sensitive to N deposition than to climate change. - Compared to nitrogen atmospheric deposition, climate appears to be the main driver of change in forest plant biodiversity on a century scale, except in N-poor ecosystems.

Simulation of the summer circulation over South America by two regional climate models. Part I: Mean climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, J. P. R.; Franchito, S. H.; Rao, V. B.

2006-09-01

This study investigates the capabilities of two regional models (the ICTP RegCM3 and the climate version of the CPTEC Eta model - EtaClim) in simulating the mean climatological features of the summer quasi-stationary circulations over South America. Comparing the results with the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data it is seen that the RegCM3 simulates a weaker and southward shifted Bolivian high (BH). But, the Nordeste low (NL) is located close to its climatological position. In the EtaClim the position of the BH is reproduced well, but the NL is shifted towards the interior of the continent. To the east of Andes, the RegCM3 simulates a weaker low level jet and a weaker basic flow from the tropical Atlantic to Amazonia while they are stronger in the EtaClim. In general, the RegCM3 and EtaClim show, respectively a negative and positive bias in the surface temperature in almost all regions of South America. For both models, the correlation coefficients between the simulated precipitation and the GPCP data are high over most of South America. Although the RegCM3 and EtaClim overestimate the precipitation in the Andes region they show a negative bias in general over the entire South America. The simulations of upper and lower level circulations and precipitation fields in EtaClim were better than that of the RegCM3. In central Amazonia both models were unable to simulate the precipitation correctly. The results showed that although the RegCM3 and EtaClim are capable of simulating the main climatological features of the summer climate over South America, there are areas which need improvement. This indicates that the models must be more adequately tuned in order to give reliable predictions in the different regions of South America.

Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

2016-06-01

A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nonlinear isobologram model with Box-Cox transformation to both sides for chemical mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, D G; Pounds, J G

1998-12-01

The linear logistical isobologram is a commonly used and powerful graphical and statistical tool for analyzing the combined effects of simple chemical mixtures. In this paper a nonlinear isobologram model is proposed to analyze the joint action of chemical mixtures for quantitative dose-response relationships. This nonlinear isobologram model incorporates two additional new parameters, Ymin and Ymax, to facilitate analysis of response data that are not constrained between 0 and 1, where parameters Ymin and Ymax represent the minimal and the maximal observed toxic response. This nonlinear isobologram model for binary mixtures can be expressed as [formula: see text] In addition, a Box-Cox transformation to both sides is introduced to improve the goodness of fit and to provide a more robust model for achieving homogeneity and normality of the residuals. Finally, a confidence band is proposed for selected isobols, e.g., the median effective dose, to facilitate graphical and statistical analysis of the isobologram. The versatility of this approach is demonstrated using published data describing the toxicity of the binary mixtures of citrinin and ochratoxin as well as a new experimental data from our laboratory for mixtures of mercury and cadmium.

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

Science.gov (United States)

MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

2009-01-01

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

The ARM Cloud Radar Simulator for Global Climate Models: Bridging Field Data and Climate Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yuying [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Xie, Shaocheng [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Klein, Stephen A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Marchand, Roger [University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Kollias, Pavlos [Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York; Clothiaux, Eugene E. [The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania; Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Johnson, Karen [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Swales, Dustin [CIRES and NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Tang, Shuaiqi [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Haynes, John M. [Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere/Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado; Collis, Scott [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois; Jensen, Michael [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York; Bharadwaj, Nitin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Hardin, Joseph [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Isom, Bradley [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2018-01-01

Clouds play an important role in Earth’s radiation budget and hydrological cycle. However, current global climate models (GCMs) have had difficulties in accurately simulating clouds and precipitation. To improve the representation of clouds in climate models, it is crucial to identify where simulated clouds differ from real world observations of them. This can be difficult, since significant differences exist between how a climate model represents clouds and what instruments observe, both in terms of spatial scale and the properties of the hydrometeors which are either modeled or observed. To address these issues and minimize impacts of instrument limitations, the concept of instrument “simulators”, which convert model variables into pseudo-instrument observations, has evolved with the goal to improve and to facilitate the comparison of modeled clouds with observations. Many simulators have (and continue to be developed) for a variety of instruments and purposes. A community satellite simulator package, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP; Bodas-Salcedo et al. 2011), contains several independent satellite simulators and is being widely used in the global climate modeling community to exploit satellite observations for model cloud evaluation (e.g., Klein et al. 2013; Zhang et al. 2010). This article introduces a ground-based cloud radar simulator developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for comparing climate model clouds with ARM observations from its vertically pointing 35-GHz radars. As compared to CloudSat radar observations, ARM radar measurements occur with higher temporal resolution and finer vertical resolution. This enables users to investigate more fully the detailed vertical structures within clouds, resolve thin clouds, and quantify the diurnal variability of clouds. Particularly, ARM radars are sensitive to low-level clouds, which are

An analytical model for climatic predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1990-12-01

A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol-lowering drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Shah, Arvind K; Lin, Jianxin

2013-10-15

In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the deviance information criterion is used to select the best transformation model. Because the model is quite complex, we develop a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling scheme to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol-lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three-dimensional response consisting of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Because the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately; however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate because these variables are correlated with each other. We carry out a detailed analysis of these data by using the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol lowering drugs

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Shah, Arvind K.; Lin, Jianxin

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data (IPD) in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the best transformation model. Since the model is quite complex, a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampling scheme is developed to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three dimensional response consisting of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C), High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C), and Triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Since the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately: however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate since these variables are correlated with each other. A detailed analysis of these data is carried out using the proposed methodology. PMID:23580436

Faster Black-Box Algorithms Through Higher Arity Operators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Doerr, Benjamin; Johannsen, Daniel; Kötzing, Timo

2011-01-01

We extend the work of Lehre and Witt (GECCO 2010) on the unbiased black-box model by considering higher arity variation operators. In particular, we show that already for binary operators the black-box complexity of LeadingOnes drops from (n2) for unary operators to O(n log n). For OneMax, the (n...

Preliminary evaluation of techniques for transforming regional climate model output to the potential repository site in support of Yucca Mountain future climate synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Behl, Y.K.

1995-06-01

The report describes a preliminary evaluation of models for transforming regional climate model output from a regional to a local scale for the Yucca Mountain area. Evaluation and analysis of both empirical and numerical modeling are discussed which is aimed at providing site-specific, climate-based information for use by interfacing activities. Two semiempirical approaches are recommended for further analysis

Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

2007-01-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Paul; McGrath, Ray

2016-04-01

The method of Regional Climate Modelling (RCM) was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The RCM simulations were run at high spatial resolution, up to 4 km, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. Simulations were run for a reference period 1981-2000 and future period 2041-2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Specifically, the future climate of Ireland was simulated using three different RCMs, driven by four Global Climate Models (GCMs). To account for the uncertainty in future emissions, a number of SRES (B1, A1B, A2) and RCP (4.5, 8.5) emission scenarios were used to simulate the future climate. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections can be partially quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. In addition, likelihood values can be assigned to the projections. The RCMs used in this work are the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM, versions 3 and 4) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GCMs used are the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5, the UK Met Office's HadGEM2-ES, the CGCM3.1 model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and the EC-Earth consortium GCM. The projections for mid-century indicate an increase of 1-1.6°C in mean annual temperatures, with the largest increases seen in the east of the country. Warming is enhanced for the extremes (i.e. hot or cold days), with the warmest 5% of daily maximum summer temperatures projected to increase by 0.7-2.6°C. The coldest 5% of night-time temperatures in winter are projected to rise by 1.1-3.1°C. Averaged over the whole country, the number of frost days is projected to decrease by over 50%. The projections indicate an average increase in the length of the growing season

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

Abilities and limitations in the use of regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koeltzov, Morten Andreas Oedegaard

2012-11-01

In order to say something about the effect of climate change at the regional level, one takes in use regional climate models. In these models the thesis introduce regional features, which are not included in the global climate models (which are basically in climate research). Regional models can provide good and useful climate projections that add more value than the global climate models, but also introduces an uncertainty in the calculations. How should this uncertainty affect the use of regional climate models?The most common methodology for calculating potential future climate developments are based on different scenarios of possible emissions of greenhouse gases. These scenarios operates as global climate models using physical laws and calculate possible future developments. This is considered mathematical complexed and processes with limited supercomputing capacity calculates the global models for the larger scale of the climate system. To study the effects of climate change are regional details required and the regional models used therefore in a limited area of the climate system. These regional models are driven by data from the global models and refines and improves these data. Impact studies can then use the data from the regional models or data which are further processed to provide more local details using geo-statistical methods. In the preparation of the climate projections is there a minimum of 4 sources of uncertainty. This uncertainty is related to the provision of emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, uncertainties related to the use of global climate models, uncertainty related to the use of regional climate models and the uncertainty of internal variability in the climate system. This thesis discusses the use of regional climate models, and illustrates how the regional climate model adds value to climate projections, and at the same time introduce uncertainty in the calculations. It discusses in particular the importance of the choice of

Evaluation for rigidity of box construction of nuclear reactor building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamakawa, Tetsuo

1979-01-01

A huge box-shaped structure (hereafter, called box construction) of reinforced concrete is presently utilized as the reactor building structure in nuclear power plants. Evaluation of the rigidity of the huge box construction is required for making a vibration analysis model of nuclear reactor buildings. It is necessary to handle the box construction as the plates to which the force in plane is applied. This paper describes that the bending theory in elementary beam theory is equivalent to a peculiar, orthogonally anisotropic plate, the shearing rigidity and film rigidity in y direction of which are put to infinity and the Poisson's ratio is put to zero, viewed from the two-dimensional theory of elasticity. The form factor of 1.2 for shearing deformation in rectangular cross section was calculated from the parabolic distribution of shearing stress intensity, and it is the maximum value. The factor is equal to 1.2 for slender beams, but smaller than 1.2 for short and thick beams, having tendency to converge to 1.0. The non-conformity of boundary conditions regarding the shearing force at the both ends of cantilevers does not affect very seriously the evaluation of shearing rigidity. From the above results, it was found that the application of the theory to the box construction was able to give the rigidity evaluation with sufficient engineering accuracy. The theory can also be applied to the evaluation of tube type ultrahigh buildings. (Wakatsuki, Y.)

BOX-COX transformation and random regression models for fecal egg count data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Vinicius Silva

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants fecal egg count (FEC is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6,375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (covariance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4 adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

Box-Cox Transformation and Random Regression Models for Fecal egg Count Data.

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Gualberto Barbosa; Van Tassell, Curtis P; Sonstegard, Tad S; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo; Gasbarre, Louis C

2011-01-01

Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants, fecal egg count (FEC) is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used in an effort to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often still not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (co)variance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM) for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4) adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

Improved method for calibration of exchange flows for a physical transport box model of Tampa Bay, FL USA

Science.gov (United States)

Results for both sequential and simultaneous calibration of exchange flows between segments of a 10-box, one-dimensional, well-mixed, bifurcated tidal mixing model for Tampa Bay are reported. Calibrations were conducted for three model options with different mathematical expressi...

The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

2017-12-01

Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

Spatial scale separation in regional climate modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feser, F.

2005-07-01

In this thesis the concept of scale separation is introduced as a tool for first improving regional climate model simulations and, secondly, to explicitly detect and describe the added value obtained by regional modelling. The basic idea behind this is that global and regional climate models have their best performance at different spatial scales. Therefore the regional model should not alter the global model's results at large scales. The for this purpose designed concept of nudging of large scales controls the large scales within the regional model domain and keeps them close to the global forcing model whereby the regional scales are left unchanged. For ensemble simulations nudging of large scales strongly reduces the divergence of the different simulations compared to the standard approach ensemble that occasionally shows large differences for the individual realisations. For climate hindcasts this method leads to results which are on average closer to observed states than the standard approach. Also the analysis of the regional climate model simulation can be improved by separating the results into different spatial domains. This was done by developing and applying digital filters that perform the scale separation effectively without great computational effort. The separation of the results into different spatial scales simplifies model validation and process studies. The search for 'added value' can be conducted on the spatial scales the regional climate model was designed for giving clearer results than by analysing unfiltered meteorological fields. To examine the skill of the different simulations pattern correlation coefficients were calculated between the global reanalyses, the regional climate model simulation and, as a reference, of an operational regional weather analysis. The regional climate model simulation driven with large-scale constraints achieved a high increase in similarity to the operational analyses for medium-scale 2 meter

Educational and Scientific Applications of Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Zhang, J.; Bao, Q.

2016-12-01

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is a web-based information system designed for the climate modeling and model analysis community to analyze climate data from models and observations. CMDA provides tools to diagnostically analyze climate data for model validation and improvement, and to systematically manage analysis provenance for sharing results with other investigators. CMDA utilizes cloud computing resources, multi-threading computing, machine-learning algorithms, web service technologies, and provenance-supporting technologies to address technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. As CMDA infrastructure and technology have matured, we have developed the educational and scientific applications of CMDA. Educationally, CMDA supported the summer school of the JPL Center for Climate Sciences for three years since 2014. In the summer school, the students work on group research projects where CMDA provide datasets and analysis tools. Each student is assigned to a virtual machine with CMDA installed in Amazon Web Services. A provenance management system for CMDA is developed to keep track of students' usages of CMDA, and to recommend datasets and analysis tools for their research topic. The provenance system also allows students to revisit their analysis results and share them with their group. Scientifically, we have developed several science use cases of CMDA covering various topics, datasets, and analysis types. Each use case developed is described and listed in terms of a scientific goal, datasets used, the analysis tools used, scientific results discovered from the use case, an analysis result such as output plots and data files, and a link to the exact analysis service call with all the input arguments filled. For example, one science use case is the evaluation of NCAR CAM5 model with MODIS total cloud fraction. The analysis service used is Difference Plot Service of

Box-Cox transformation of firm size data in statistical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

2014-03-01

Firm size data usually do not show the normality that is often assumed in statistical analysis such as regression analysis. In this study we focus on two firm size data: the number of employees and sale. Those data deviate considerably from a normal distribution. To improve the normality of those data we transform them by the Box-Cox transformation with appropriate parameters. The Box-Cox transformation parameters are determined so that the transformed data best show the kurtosis of a normal distribution. It is found that the two firm size data transformed by the Box-Cox transformation show strong linearity. This indicates that the number of employees and sale have the similar property as a firm size indicator. The Box-Cox parameters obtained for the firm size data are found to be very close to zero. In this case the Box-Cox transformations are approximately a log-transformation. This suggests that the firm size data we used are approximately log-normal distributions.

Box-Cox transformation of firm size data in statistical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

2014-01-01

Firm size data usually do not show the normality that is often assumed in statistical analysis such as regression analysis. In this study we focus on two firm size data: the number of employees and sale. Those data deviate considerably from a normal distribution. To improve the normality of those data we transform them by the Box-Cox transformation with appropriate parameters. The Box-Cox transformation parameters are determined so that the transformed data best show the kurtosis of a normal distribution. It is found that the two firm size data transformed by the Box-Cox transformation show strong linearity. This indicates that the number of employees and sale have the similar property as a firm size indicator. The Box-Cox parameters obtained for the firm size data are found to be very close to zero. In this case the Box-Cox transformations are approximately a log-transformation. This suggests that the firm size data we used are approximately log-normal distributions

Modeling transport of nutrients & sediment loads into Lake Tahoe under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Riverson, John; Coats, Robert; Costa-Cabral, Mariza; Dettinger, Mike; Reuter, John; Sahoo, Goloka; Schladow, Geoffrey

2013-01-01

The outputs from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emissions scenarios were downscaled and bias-corrected to develop regional climate change projections for the Tahoe Basin. For one model—the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory or GFDL model—the daily model results were used to drive a distributed hydrologic model. The watershed model used an energy balance approach for computing evapotranspiration and snowpack dynamics so that the processes remain a function of the climate change projections. For this study, all other aspects of the model (i.e. land use distribution, routing configuration, and parameterization) were held constant to isolate impacts of climate change projections. The results indicate that (1) precipitation falling as rain rather than snow will increase, starting at the current mean snowline, and moving towards higher elevations over time; (2) annual accumulated snowpack will be reduced; (3) snowpack accumulation will start later; and (4) snowmelt will start earlier in the year. Certain changes were masked (or counter-balanced) when summarized as basin-wide averages; however, spatial evaluation added notable resolution. While rainfall runoff increased at higher elevations, a drop in total precipitation volume decreased runoff and fine sediment load from the lower elevation meadow areas and also decreased baseflow and nitrogen loads basin-wide. This finding also highlights the important role that the meadow areas could play as high-flow buffers under climatic change. Because the watershed model accounts for elevation change and variable meteorological patterns, it provided a robust platform for evaluating the impacts of projected climate change on hydrology and water quality.

BOX-COX REGRESSION METHOD IN TIME SCALING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ATİLLA GÖKTAŞ

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Box-Cox regression method with λj, for j = 1, 2, ..., k, power transformation can be used when dependent variable and error term of the linear regression model do not satisfy the continuity and normality assumptions. The situation obtaining the smallest mean square error  when optimum power λj, transformation for j = 1, 2, ..., k, of Y has been discussed. Box-Cox regression method is especially appropriate to adjust existence skewness or heteroscedasticity of error terms for a nonlinear functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. In this study, the advantage and disadvantage use of Box-Cox regression method have been discussed in differentiation and differantial analysis of time scale concept.

Box-Cox Test: the theoretical justification and US-China empirical study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tam Bang Vu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In econometrics, the derivation of a theoretical model leads sometimes to two econometric models, which can be considered justified based on their respective approximation approaches. Hence, the decision of choosing one between the two hinges on applied econometric tools. In this paper, the authors develop a theoretical econometrics consumer maximization model to measure the flow of durables’ expenditures where depreciation is added to former classical econometrics model. The proposed model was formulated in both linear and logarithmic forms. Box-Cox tests were used to choose the most appropriate one among them. The proposed model was then applied to the historical data from the U.S. and China for a comparative study and the results discussed.

Prospects for future climate: A special US/USSR report on climate and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacCracken, M.C.; Budyko, M.I.; Hecht, A.D.; Izrael, Y.A.

1990-01-01

Starting with the US-USSR Agreement on Protection of the Environment signed in 1972, the two nations have cooperated in joint research on atmospheric and environmental problems. The result of these efforts has been an innovative approach to projecting future climate change based on what has been learned about past warm periods and what can be learned from models. The chapters in this document explore the following: past changes in climate, both paleoclimatology and changes in the recent past; changes in atmospheric composition; estimates of greenhouse-induced change including the use of both empirical methods and climate models; impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in the two countries; and prospects for future climate changes

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Pleistocene climate, phylogeny, and climate envelope models: an integrative approach to better understand species' response to climate change.

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A Michelle Lawing

Full Text Available Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we synthesize geological evidence in the form of stable oxygen isotopes, general circulation paleoclimate models, species' evolutionary relatedness, and species' geographic distributions. We use the stable oxygen isotope record to develop a series of temporally high-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions spanning the Middle Pleistocene to Recent, which we use to map ancestral climatic envelope reconstructions for North American rattlesnakes. A simple linear interpolation between current climate and a general circulation paleoclimate model of the LGM using stable oxygen isotope ratios provides good estimates of paleoclimate at other time periods. We use geologically informed rates of change derived from these reconstructions to predict magnitudes and rates of change in species' suitable habitat over the next century. Our approach to modeling the past suitable habitat of species is general and can be adopted by others. We use multiple lines of evidence of past climate (isotopes and climate models, phylogenetic topology (to correct the models for long-term changes in the suitable habitat of a species, and the fossil record, however sparse, to cross check the models. Our models indicate the annual rate of displacement in a clade of rattlesnakes over the next century will be 2 to 3 orders of magnitude greater (430-2,420 m/yr than it has been on average for the past 320 ky (2.3 m/yr.

Developing and user-testing Decision boxes to facilitate shared decision making in primary care - a study protocol

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Rousseau François

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Applying evidence is one of the most challenging steps of evidence-based clinical practice. Healthcare professionals have difficulty interpreting evidence and translating it to patients. Decision boxes are summaries of the most important benefits and harms of diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive health interventions provided to healthcare professionals before they meet the patient. Our hypothesis is that Decision boxes will prepare clinicians to help patients make informed value-based decisions. By acting as primers, the boxes will enhance the application of evidence-based practices and increase shared decision making during the clinical encounter. The objectives of this study are to provide a framework for developing Decision boxes and testing their value to users. Methods/Design We will begin by developing Decision box prototypes for 10 clinical conditions or topics based on a review of the research on risk communication. We will present two prototypes to purposeful samples of 16 family physicians distributed in two focus groups, and 32 patients distributed in four focus groups. We will use the User Experience Model framework to explore users' perceptions of the content and format of each prototype. All discussions will be transcribed, and two researchers will independently perform a hybrid deductive/inductive thematic qualitative analysis of the data. The coding scheme will be developed a priori from the User Experience Model's seven themes (valuable, usable, credible, useful, desirable, accessible and findable, and will include new themes suggested by the data (inductive analysis. Key findings will be triangulated using additional publications on the design of tools to improve risk communication. All 10 Decision boxes will be modified in light of our findings. Discussion This study will produce a robust framework for developing and testing Decision boxes that will serve healthcare professionals and patients alike. It

A Finite Segment Method for Skewed Box Girder Analysis

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Xingwei Xue

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A finite segment method is presented to analyze the mechanical behavior of skewed box girders. By modeling the top and bottom plates of the segments with skew plate beam element under an inclined coordinate system and the webs with normal plate beam element, a spatial elastic displacement model for skewed box girder is constructed, which can satisfy the compatibility condition at the corners of the cross section for box girders. The formulation of the finite segment is developed based on the variational principle. The major advantage of the proposed approach, in comparison with the finite element method, is that it can simplify a three-dimensional structure into a one-dimensional structure for structural analysis, which results in significant saving in computational times. At last, the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed finite segment method are verified by a model test.

Shielding of the NBI boxes against W7-X magnetic stray fields

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kick, Manfred [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)], E-mail: Kick@arcor.de; Sielanko, Juliusz [Maria Curie Sklodowska University, Pl. M. C. Sklodowskie 1, 20-031 Lublin (Poland); Heinemann, Bernd; Riedl, Rudolf; Speth, Eckehart; Staebler, Albrecht [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Boltzmannstr. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

2009-06-15

Neutral Beam Injection (NBI), besides ECRH, is foreseen as one of the main heating devices at the W7-X stellarator currently under construction at IPP Greifswald, Germany. In a final stage 20 MW of NBI heating power will be installed generated by two NBI boxes of the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) type. Since magnetic fields generally affect the trajectories of charged particles, essentially all the NBI boxes - including ion sources, acceleration sections, neutralisers and deflection magnets - must be shielded against the stray fields of W7-X. In the magnetic stray fields of W7-X there exist significant radial and toroidal components whereas at tokamaks the vertical components are dominant. The power loads on the ion dump and the protecting structures of the deflecting magnets and the beam lines caused by residual beam ions, therefore, will be strongly different. Thus the shielding concept of AUG cannot simply be taken over, but must be carefully redesigned in order to remain below the critical power limits. New modelling calculations of the magnetic shielding, the ion trajectories and the resulting power loads have been carried out for the 'high iota' and 'low shear' experimental scenarios of W7-X. The fields taken for these calculations are modelled by averaging the calculated W7-X stray fields on the one hand, and by fields generated by two-hypothetical-planar coils perpendicular to the x-y plane, on the other hand. The shielding concept for W7-X mainly consist of iron plates in the outer side regions of the boxes and as little magnetic material as possible inside the boxes.

Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmer, Jennie

2015-01-01

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused...... by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact...... a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models....