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Sample records for tuomainen fredrika juslin

  1. Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-01-01

    A standard assumption in much of current psychology is that people do not reason about probability using the rules of probability theory but instead use various heuristics or "rules of thumb," which can produce systematic reasoning biases. In Costello and Watts (2014), we showed that a number of these biases can be explained by a model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise. More importantly, that model also predicted agreement with probability theory for certain expressions that cancel the effects of random noise: Experimental results strongly confirmed this prediction, showing that probabilistic reasoning is simultaneously systematically biased and "surprisingly rational." In their commentaries on that paper, both Crupi and Tentori (2016) and Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016) point to various experimental results that, they suggest, our model cannot explain. In this reply, we show that our probability theory plus noise model can in fact explain every one of the results identified by these authors. This gives a degree of additional support to the view that people's probability judgments embody the rational rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments can be explained as simply effects of random noise. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Pieno produktų juslinė analizė: jos taikymas Lietuvoje

    OpenAIRE

    Jasiukaitytė, Vaida

    2007-01-01

    Aim of study: to analyse the sensory analyses using to dairy products rating in Lithuania (law acts, assessors training, practical using in Lithuania). Tasks of study: to select and instruct assessors group to work by LST ISO 8586 – 1:1997. Sensory analysis. General guidance of the selection, training and monitoring of assessors. Part 1 : Selected assessors. To do descriptive analysis of dairy product (cheese) by LST ISO 4121:2004. Sensory analysis. Methodology. Evaluation of food products...

  3. An Extension to the Constructivist Coding Hypothesis as a Learning Model for Selective Feedback when the Base Rate Is High

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Stewart, Thomas R.

    2011-01-01

    Elwin, Juslin, Olsson, and Enkvist (2007) and Henriksson, Elwin, and Juslin (2010) offered the constructivist coding hypothesis to describe how people code the outcomes of their decisions when availability of feedback is conditional on the decision. They provided empirical evidence only for the 0.5 base rate condition. This commentary argues that…

  4. Specialization in audiovisual speech perception: a replication study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskelund, Kasper; Andersen, Tobias

    Speech perception is audiovisual as evidenced by bimodal integration in the McGurk effect. This integration effect may be specific to speech or be applied to all stimuli in general. To investigate this, Tuomainen et al. (2005) used sine-wave speech, which naïve observers may perceive as non......-speech, but hear as speech once informed of the linguistic origin of the signal. Combinations of sine-wave speech and incongruent video of the talker elicited a McGurk effect only for informed observers. This indicates that the audiovisual integration effect is specific to speech perception. However, observers...... that observers did look near the mouth. We conclude that eye-movements did not influence the results of Tuomainen et al. and that their results thus can be taken as evidence of a speech specific mode of audiovisual integration underlying the McGurk illusion....

  5. Uncertainty Can Increase Explanatory Credibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991; Griffin & Tversky, 1992; Juslin, 1994; Koriat, 2012; May, 1986; Pfeifer, 1994; Wallsten & Gonzáles- Vallejo ...Behavioral Research Methods, online publication. Wallsten, T.S., & Gonzáles- Vallejo , C. (1994). Statement verification: A stochastic model of judgment

  6. Mode transition and change in variable use in perceptual learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hajnal, A.; Grocki, M.; Jacobs, D.M.; Zaal, F.T.J.M.; Michaels, C.F.

    2006-01-01

    Runeson, Juslin, and Olsson (2000) proposed (a) that perceptual learning entails a transition from an inferential to a direct-perceptual mode of apprehension, and (b) that relative confidence - the difference between estimated and actual performance - indicates whether apprehension is inferential or

  7. Comparative study of researcher community support and supervisory support among Finnish and Danish PhD-students

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornér, Solveig; Pyhältö, Kirsi; Peltonen, Jouni

    Prior research on doctoral supervision and researcher communities has identified social support as a key determinant of the doctoral journey (Jairam & Kahl, 2012; Zhao, Golde & McCormick, 2007). Supervisory support, for instance, in terms of constructive feedback and encouragement (Pyhältö......, 313-329. • Pyhältö, K., Vekkaila (o.s. Tuomainen), J., & Keskinen, J. (2015). Fit matters in the supervisory relationship: Doctoral students’ and supervisors’ perceptions about supervisory activities. Innovations in Education and Teaching International, 52(1), 4-16. • Zhau, C-M, Golde, C.M., McCormick...

  8. Green Marketing: integrated social and environmental responsibility in the marketing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Dalmoro, Marlon; Venturini, Jonas Cardona; Diniz Pereira, Breno Augusto

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to describe and analyze as social and environmental responsibility is integrated in the marketing strategy of a Coca-Cola Company franchisee. By the perceptions of Karna, Hansen and Juslin (2001), environment marketing is described based on three hierarchical levels: strategic, structural and functional marketing. There has been developed a qualitative approach through case study, in which the data were collected through semi-structured interviews with people involved in the p...

  9. Emotional reactions to music: psychophysiological correlates and applications to affective disorders

    OpenAIRE

    Kalda, Tiina

    2013-01-01

    Music has been used to evoke emotions for centuries. The mechanisms underlying this effect have remained largely unclear. This thesis contributes to research on how music\\ud evokes emotions by investigating two mechanisms from the model of Juslin and Västfjäll (2008) - musical expectancy and emotional contagion. In the perception studies the focus is on how musical expectancy violations are detected by either musically trained or untrained individuals. In the music-making studies, we concentr...

  10. Speech-specific audiovisual perception affects identification but not detection of speech

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskelund, Kasper; Andersen, Tobias

    Speech perception is audiovisual as evidenced by the McGurk effect in which watching incongruent articulatory mouth movements can change the phonetic auditory speech percept. This type of audiovisual integration may be specific to speech or be applied to all stimuli in general. To investigate...... of audiovisual integration specific to speech perception. However, the results of Tuomainen et al. might have been influenced by another effect. When observers were naïve, they had little motivation to look at the face. When informed, they knew that the face was relevant for the task and this could increase...... visual detection task. In our first experiment, observers presented with congruent and incongruent audiovisual sine-wave speech stimuli did only show a McGurk effect when informed of the speech nature of the stimulus. Performance on the secondary visual task was very good, thus supporting the finding...

  11. Marketing Verde: responsabilidade social e ambiental integradas na envolvente de marketing

    Green Marketing: integrated social and environmental responsibility in the marketing environment

    Marketing Verde: responsabilidad social y ambiental integrada en la envolvente de marketing

    OpenAIRE

    DALMORO, Marlon; VENTURINI, Jonas Cardona; PEREIRA, Breno Augusto Diniz

    2009-01-01

    RESUMOO presente estudo tem como objetivo principal analisar e descrever como a responsabilidade social e ambiental está integrada na envolvente de marketing de uma unidade franqueada da Companhia Coca-Cola. Ao encontro das percepções de Karna, Hansen e Juslin (2001), a envolvente de marketing é descrita, baseada em três níveis hierárquicos: marketing estratégico, estrutural e funcional. Neste sentido, realizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa com estudo de caso, no qual os dados foram coletados,...

  12. Music and Emotion. Review of "Music and Emotion", monographic issue of the journal «Music Analysis», edited by Michael Spitzer, n. 29/1-2-3 (2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Baroni

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The last fifteen years have seen the development of a lively interest, on an international scale, in the topic of emotion in music, documented by numerous noteworthy publications: the two volumes edited by Juslin and Sloboda [2001; 2010], the monographic issues of the journal «Musicae Scientiae» published in 2001 and 2011, and many other texts published in various parts of the world. The topic is not without repercussions also for those involved in musical analysis; and it is no mere chance that the English journal «Music Analysis» chose to dedicate the volume we are now reviewing to the subject. The contributions contained in the volume derive from an international meeting held in Durham in September 2009 and offer a fairly lively cross-section of a wide series of questions. Our only regret is that with the exception of three nordic names (Juslin, Lindström and Eerola, whose place is now solidly established in English language publications all the authors come from the now almost self-referential context of British or American research. But of course this is nothing new.

  13. Suffering Daughters and Wives. Sentimental Themes in Finnish and Nordic Realism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saija Isomaa

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This article examines sentimental themes and scenarios in Nordic nineteenthcentury literature, focusing on Finnish realism. The main claim of the article is that the treatment of the Woman Question in Nordic literature is thematically connected to French sentimentalism that depicted upper-class women caught in the conflict between personal freedom and familial duties. Typical scenarios were family barrier to marriage and love triangle, in which an unhappily married woman fell in love with another man. French sentimental social novels took a stance on the position of women. Similar themes and scenarios can be found in Nordic nineteenth-century novels and plays. The ‘daughter novel’ tradition from Fredrika Bremer’s The President’s Daughters (1834 to Minna Canth’s Hanna (1886 depict the sufferings of upper-class girls in patriarchal family and society. A Doll’s House (1879 by Henrik Ibsen centers on the theme of conflicting duties, depicting the moral awakening of a doll-like wife, and Papin rouva (1893, ‘The Wife of a Clergyman’ by Juhani Aho concentrates on the sufferings and moral considerations of the unhappily married Elli. The article suggests that the sentimentalist legacy informs the Nordic nineteenth-century literature and should be taken into account in the scholarship.

  14. Marketing Verde: responsabilidade social e ambiental integradas na envolvente de marketingGreen Marketing: integrated social and environmental responsibility in the marketing environmentMarketing Verde: responsabilidad social y ambiental integrada en la envolvente de marketing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DALMORO, Marlon

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available RESUMOO presente estudo tem como objetivo principal analisar e descrever como a responsabilidade social e ambiental está integrada na envolvente de marketing de uma unidade franqueada da Companhia Coca-Cola. Ao encontro das percepções de Karna, Hansen e Juslin (2001, a envolvente de marketing é descrita, baseada em três níveis hierárquicos: marketing estratégico, estrutural e funcional. Neste sentido, realizou-se uma abordagem qualitativa com estudo de caso, no qual os dados foram coletados, por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas com pessoas envolvidas no processo de gestão ambiental e social da empresa franqueada. No tratamento dos dados foi utilizada análise de conteúdo. Na percepção dos entrevistados, a empresa encontra-se em um avançado processo de integração em toda a organização de uma cultura de marketing verde, principalmente, pela relação de franqueado, mantida com a Companhia Coca-Cola. Observou-se que a empresa franqueada, bem como a companhia, de modo geral, encontram-se numa situação pró-ativa em termos de marketing verde, mesmo que o ambiente institucional não cumpra com o seu papel na plenitude.ABSTRACTThis study aims to describe and analyze as social and environmental responsibility is integrated in the marketing strategy of a Coca-Cola Company franchisee. By the perceptions of Karna, Hansen and Juslin (2001, environment marketing is described based on three hierarchical levels: strategic, structural and functional marketing. There has been developed a qualitative approach through case study, in which the data were collected through semi-structured interviews with people involved in the process of environmental and social management of the franchisee company. Data treatment was used in the analysis of content. In the interviewer’s perception, the company is in advanced process of integration across the organization of a green marketing culture, primarily by the relationship of the franchisee maintained

  15. Exemplar-based inference in multi-attribute decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linnea Karlsson

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Several studies propose that exemplar retrieval contributes to multi-attribute decisions. The authors have proposed a process theory enabling a priori predictions of what cognitive representations people use as input to their judgment process (extit{Sigma}, for ``summation''; P. Juslin, L. Karlsson, and H. Olsson, 2008. According to Sigma, exemplar retrieval is a back-up system when the task does not allow for additive and linear abstraction and integration of cue-criterion knowledge (e.g., when the task is non-additive. An important question is to what extent such shifts occur spontaneously as part of automatic procedures, such as error-minimization with the Delta rule, or if they are controlled extit{strategy} shifts contingent on the ability to identify a sufficiently successful judgment strategy. In this article data are reviewed that demonstrate a shift between exemplar memory and cue abstraction, as well as data where the expected shift does extit{not} occur. In contrast to a common assumption of previous models, these results suggest a controlled and contingent strategy shift.

  16. Heuristics can produce surprisingly rational probability estimates: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Håkan; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

    2016-01-01

    Costello and Watts (2014) present a model assuming that people's knowledge of probabilities adheres to probability theory, but that their probability judgments are perturbed by a random noise in the retrieval from memory. Predictions for the relationships between probability judgments for constituent events and their disjunctions and conjunctions, as well as for sums of such judgments were derived from probability theory. Costello and Watts (2014) report behavioral data showing that subjective probability judgments accord with these predictions. Based on the finding that subjective probability judgments follow probability theory, Costello and Watts (2014) conclude that the results imply that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and thereby refute theories of heuristic processing. Here, we demonstrate the invalidity of this conclusion by showing that all of the tested predictions follow straightforwardly from an account assuming heuristic probability integration (Nilsson, Winman, Juslin, & Hansson, 2009). We end with a discussion of a number of previous findings that harmonize very poorly with the predictions by the model suggested by Costello and Watts (2014). (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Emotional expression in music: contribution, linearity, and additivity of primary musical cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eerola, Tuomas; Friberg, Anders; Bresin, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to manipulate musical cues systematically to determine the aspects of music that contribute to emotional expression, and whether these cues operate in additive or interactive fashion, and whether the cue levels can be characterized as linear or non-linear. An optimized factorial design was used with six primary musical cues (mode, tempo, dynamics, articulation, timbre, and register) across four different music examples. Listeners rated 200 musical examples according to four perceived emotional characters (happy, sad, peaceful, and scary). The results exhibited robust effects for all cues and the ranked importance of these was established by multiple regression. The most important cue was mode followed by tempo, register, dynamics, articulation, and timbre, although the ranking varied across the emotions. The second main result suggested that most cue levels contributed to the emotions in a linear fashion, explaining 77-89% of variance in ratings. Quadratic encoding of cues did lead to minor but significant increases of the models (0-8%). Finally, the interactions between the cues were non-existent suggesting that the cues operate mostly in an additive fashion, corroborating recent findings on emotional expression in music (Juslin and Lindström, 2010).

  18. Emotional Expression in Music: Contribution, Linearity, and Additivity of Primary Musical Cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuomas eEerola

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to manipulate musical cues systematically to determine the aspects of music that contribute to emotional expression, and whether these cues operate in additive or interactive fashion, and whether the cue levels can be characterized as linear or non-linear. An optimized factorial design was used with six primary musical cues (mode, tempo, dynamics, articulation, timbre, and register across four different music examples. Listeners rated 200 musical examples according to four perceived emotional characters (happy, sad, peaceful, and scary. The results exhibited robust effects for all cues and the ranked importance of these was established by multiple regression. The most important cue was mode followed by tempo, register, dynamics, articulation, and timbre, although the ranking varied across the emotions. The second main result suggested that most cue levels contributed to the emotions in a linear fashion, explaining 77–89% of variance in ratings. Quadratic encoding of cues did lead to minor but significant increases of the models (0–8%. Finally, the interactions between the cues were non-existent suggesting that the cues operate mostly in an additive fashion, corroborating recent findings on emotional expression in music (Juslin & Lindström, 2010.

  19. Emotional expression in music: contribution, linearity, and additivity of primary musical cues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eerola, Tuomas; Friberg, Anders; Bresin, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to manipulate musical cues systematically to determine the aspects of music that contribute to emotional expression, and whether these cues operate in additive or interactive fashion, and whether the cue levels can be characterized as linear or non-linear. An optimized factorial design was used with six primary musical cues (mode, tempo, dynamics, articulation, timbre, and register) across four different music examples. Listeners rated 200 musical examples according to four perceived emotional characters (happy, sad, peaceful, and scary). The results exhibited robust effects for all cues and the ranked importance of these was established by multiple regression. The most important cue was mode followed by tempo, register, dynamics, articulation, and timbre, although the ranking varied across the emotions. The second main result suggested that most cue levels contributed to the emotions in a linear fashion, explaining 77–89% of variance in ratings. Quadratic encoding of cues did lead to minor but significant increases of the models (0–8%). Finally, the interactions between the cues were non-existent suggesting that the cues operate mostly in an additive fashion, corroborating recent findings on emotional expression in music (Juslin and Lindström, 2010). PMID:23908642

  20. The Problem with Probability: Why rare hazards feel even rarer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.

    2013-12-01

    as recent findings that may shed light on ways that the negative effects of uncertainty can be mitigated. Among other potential solutions, implications are discussed for education about probabilities (through simulation games as well as direct approaches), for attribute framing and goal framing, and for the potential mitigating power of actionability or instrumentality. Selected References: Halpern-Felsher, B. L., Millstein, S. G., Ellen, J. M., Adler, N. E., Tschann, J. M., & Biehl, M. (2001). The role of behavioral experience in judging risks. Health Psychology, 20(2), 120-126. Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., Kiefer, J., & Hertwig, R. (2008). The Description/Experience Gap in Risky Choice: The Role of Sample Size and Experienced Probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21: 493-518. Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2006). The role of information sampling in risky choice. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin(Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition. (pp. 75-91). New York: Cambridge University Press. Spence, A., Poortinga, W., Butler, C., & Pidgeon, N.F. (2011). Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nature Climate Change, 1, 46-49. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297-323.

  1. Interaction of atomic and low-energy deuterium with tungsten pre-irradiated with self-ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogorodnikova, O. V.; Markelj, S.; Toussaint, U. von

    2016-01-01

    Polycrystalline tungsten (W) specimens were pre-irradiated with self-ions to create identical samples with high density of defects up to ∼2.5 μm near the surface. Then, W specimens were exposed to either thermal atomic deuterium (D) beam with an incident energy of ∼0.2 eV or low energy D plasma with the incident energy varied between 5 and 200 eV at different sample temperatures. Each sample was exposed once at certain temperature and fluence. The D migration and accumulation in W were studied post-mortem by nuclear reaction method. It was shown that the rate of the D to occupy radiation-induced defects increases with increasing the incident energy, ion flux, and temperature. Experimental investigation was accompanied by modelling using the rate-equation model. Moreover, the analytical model was developed and benchmarked against numerical model. The calculations of the deuterium diffusion with trapping at radiation-induced defects in tungsten by analytical model are consistent with numerical calculations using rate-equation model. The data of reflection and penetration of atomic and low-energy D were taking from calculations using molecular dynamics (MD) with Juslin interatomic potentials and a binary collision code TRIM. MD calculations show an agreement with a binary collision code TRIM only in a very narrow range of deuterium energies between 1 and 20 eV. Incorporation of the data of reflection and penetration of deuterium in the macroscopic modelling has been done to verify the range of validity of calculations using MD and binary collision code TRIM by comparison of modelling results with experimental data. Modelling results are consistent with experiments using reflection and penetration data of D obtained from TRIM code for incident ion energy above 1 eV. Otherwise, the parameters obtained from MD should be incorporated in the rate-equation model to have a good agreement with the experiments

  2. Treatment Activity, User Satisfaction, and Experienced Usability of Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Adults With Depression and Anxiety After a Myocardial Infarction: Mixed-Methods Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallin, Emma; Norlund, Fredrika; Olsson, Erik Martin Gustaf; Burell, Gunilla; Held, Claes; Carlsson, Tommy

    2018-03-16

    , patients sent less than 2 internal messages to their therapist during the intervention (mean 1.42, SD 2.56, range 0-16). Interviews revealed different preferences with regard to the internet-based portal, the content of the treatment program, and the therapist communication. Aspects related to the personal situation and required skills included unpleasant emotions evoked by the intervention, lack of time, and technical difficulties. Patients with a recent myocardial infarction and symptoms of depression and anxiety showed low treatment activity in this guided iCBT intervention with regard to completed modules, completed assignments, and internal messages sent to their therapist. The findings call attention to the need for researchers to carefully consider the preferences, personal situation, and technical skills of the end users during the development of these interventions. The study indicates several challenges that need to be addressed to improve treatment activity, user satisfaction, and usability in internet-based interventions in this population. ©Emma Wallin, Fredrika Norlund, Erik Martin Gustaf Olsson, Gunilla Burell, Claes Held, Tommy Carlsson. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 16.03.2018.

  3. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, XLVII: 263-291. [2] Fischhoff, B, Slovic, P, Lichtenstein, S, Read, S & Combs, B (1978). How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits. Pol Sci, 9, 127-152. [3] http://www.scec.org/ucerf/ [4] Hau, R, Pleskac, TJ, Kiefer, J & Hertwig, R (2008). The Description-Experience Gap in Risky Choice: The Role of Sample Size and Experienced Probabilities. J Behav Decis Making, 21: 493-518. [5] Lichtenstein, S, Slovic, P, Fischhoff, B, Layman, M & Combs, B (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. J Exp Psy: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578. [6] Hertwig, R, Barron, G, Weber, EU & Erev, I (2006). The role of information sampling in risky choice. In K Fiedler & P Juslin (Eds), Information sampling and adaptive cognition. Pp 75-91. New York: Cambridge University Press. [7] Budescu, DV, Broomell, S & Por HH (2009). Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Psychol Sci, 20(3), 299-308.

  4. The Psychology of Hazard Risk Perception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. F.

    2012-12-01

    of instrumentality on risk perception; and the impact of "false alarms" or "near misses." We conclude with practical recommendations for ways that risk communications may best be presented to avoid (or, in some cases, to capitalize on) these typical psychological hurdles to the understanding of risk. 1 http://www.scec.org/ucerf/ 2 Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, XLVII: 263-291. 3 Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., Kiefer, J., & Hertwig, R. (2008). The Description/Experience Gap in Risky Choice: The Role of Sample Size and Experienced Probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21: 493-518. 4 Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M., & Combs, B. (1978). Judged frequency of lethal events. JEP: Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551-578. 5 Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2006). The role of information sampling in risky choice. In K. Fiedler, & P. Juslin (Eds.), Information sampling and adaptive cognition. (pp. 75-91). New York: Cambridge U Press. 6 Budescu, DV, Weinberg, S & Wallsten, TS (1987). Decisions based on numerically and verbally expressed uncertainties. JEP: Human Perception and Performance, 14(2), 281-294. 7 Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Van Den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., & Katsikopoulos, K. V. (2005). "A 30% chance of rain tomorrow": How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25(3), 623-629.