Sample records for tsunami event generated

  1. Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    LeVeque, Randall J.; Waagan, Knut; González, Frank I.; Rim, Donsub; Lin, Guang


    To perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurrence, or a probability distribution of such events that can be easily sampled. For near-field events, the distribution of slip on the fault can have a significant effect on the resulting tsunami. We present an approach to defining a probability distribution based on subdividing the fault geometry into many subfaults and prescribing a desired covariance matrix relating slip on one subfault to slip on any other subfault. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are then used to define a Karhunen-Loève expansion for random slip patterns. This is similar to a spectral representation of random slip based on Fourier series but conforms to a general fault geometry. We show that only a few terms in this series are needed to represent the features of the slip distribution that are most important in tsunami generation, first with a simple one-dimensional example where slip varies only in the down-dip direction and then on a portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

  2. Significant Tsunami Events

    Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.


    Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website

  3. Landslide-generated tsunamis in a perialpine lake: Historical events and numerical models

    Hilbe, Michael; Anselmetti, Flavio S.


    Many of the perialpine lakes in Central Europe - the large, glacier-carved basins formed during the Pleistocene glaciations of the Alps - have proven to be environments prone to subaquatic landsliding. Among these, Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) has a particularly well-established record of subaquatic landslides and related tsunamis. Its sedimentary archive documents numerous landslides over the entire Holocene, which have either been triggered by earthquakes, or which occurred apparently spontaneously, possibly due to rapid sediment accumulation on delta slopes. Due to their controlled boundary conditions and the possibility to be investigated on a complete basinal scale, such lacustrine tsunamis may be used as textbook analogons for their marine counterparts. Two events in the 17th century illustrate these processes and their consequences: In AD 1601, an earthquake (Mw ~ 5.9) led to widespread failure of the sediment drape covering the lateral slopes in several basins. The resulting landslides generated tsunami waves that reached a runup of several metres, as reported in historical accounts. The waves caused widespread damage as well as loss of lives in communities along the shores. In AD 1687, the apparently spontaneous collapse of a river delta in the lake led to similar waves that damaged nearby villages. Based on detailed information on topography, bathymetry and the geometry of the landslide deposits, numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for landslide propagation, as well as for tsunami generation, propagation and inundation, are able to reproduce most of the reported tsunami effects for these events. Calculated maximum runup of the waves is 6 to >10 m in the directly affected lake basins, but significantly less in neighbouring basins. Flat alluvial plains adjacent to the most heavily affected areas are inundated over distances of several hundred metres. Taken as scenarios for possible future events, these past events suggest

  4. Coupling 3d Tsunami Generation With Boussinesq Tsunami Propagation

    Watts, P.; Grilli, S. T.; Kirby, J. T.

    A general recognition of landslide tsunami hazards has recently led to a proliferation of landslide tsunami models with widely varying assumptions and capabilities. We develop a two part simulation technique that makes few fluid dynamic assumptions so that we can examine the sensitivity of landslide tsunami events to geological param- eters. Tsunami generation of underwater landslide tsunamis is currently being simu- lated with a fully nonlinear, higher order, three-dimensional (3D) Boundary Element Method (BEM) model at the University of Rhode Island. Likewise, wave propagation and runup is currently being simulated with a fully nonlinear Boussinesq model called FUNWAVE at the University of Delaware's Center for Applied Coastal Research. We demonstrate an exact coupling of the 3D BEM model to FUNWAVE by running the generation model until after landslide motion ceases. The free surface shape and water velocities are then transferred to the Boussinesq model FUNWAVE for wave propaga- tion and runup. We run the coupled models for the 1994 Skagway, Alaska event, the 1998 Papua New Guinea event, and the somewhat more speculative 1812 Santa Bar- bara event. We demonstrate that good agreement is obtained with known observations and measurements, thereby validating our geological description of these events. We also show that the tsunami sources predicted by TOPICS are satisfactory to describe these events. We find that fluid dynamic simulations are sensitive to some geological parameters, indicating a need to refine our geological understanding of underwater landslides.

  5. Tsunami: ocean dynamo generator.

    Sugioka, Hiroko; Hamano, Yozo; Baba, Kiyoshi; Kasaya, Takafumi; Tada, Noriko; Suetsugu, Daisuke


    Secondary magnetic fields are induced by the flow of electrically conducting seawater through the Earth's primary magnetic field ('ocean dynamo effect'), and hence it has long been speculated that tsunami flows should produce measurable magnetic field perturbations, although the signal-to-noise ratio would be small because of the influence of the solar magnetic fields. Here, we report on the detection of deep-seafloor electromagnetic perturbations of 10-micron-order induced by a tsunami, which propagated through a seafloor electromagnetometer array network. The observed data extracted tsunami characteristics, including the direction and velocity of propagation as well as sea-level change, first to verify the induction theory. Presently, offshore observation systems for the early forecasting of tsunami are based on the sea-level measurement by seafloor pressure gauges. In terms of tsunami forecasting accuracy, the integration of vectored electromagnetic measurements into existing scalar observation systems would represent a substantial improvement in the performance of tsunami early-warning systems.

  6. Nonlinear tsunami generation mechanism

    M. A. Nosov


    Full Text Available The nonlinear mechanism of long gravitational surface water wave generation by high-frequency bottom oscillations in a water layer of constant depth is investigated analytically. The connection between the surface wave amplitude and the parameters of bottom oscillations and source length is investigated.

  7. On the modelling of tsunami generation and tsunami inundation

    Dias, Frédéric; O'Brien, Laura; Renzi, Emiliano; Stefanakis, Themistoklis


    While the propagation of tsunamis is well understood and well simulated by numerical models, there are still a number of unanswered questions related to the generation of tsunamis or the subsequent inundation. We review some of the basic generation mechanisms as well as their simulation. In particular, we present a simple and computationally inexpensive model that describes the seabed displacement during an underwater earthquake. This model is based on the finite fault solution for the slip distribution under some assumptions on the kinematics of the rupturing process. We also consider an unusual source for tsunami generation: the sinking of a cruise ship. Then we review some aspects of tsunami run-up. In particular, we explain why the first wave of a tsunami is sometimes less devastating than the subsequent waves. A resonance effect can boost the waves that come later. We also look at a particular feature of the 11 March 2011 tsunami in Japan - the formation of macro-scale vortices - and show that these macr...


    Frank C. Lin


    Full Text Available The present study describes a prototype we built and named REMOTE for detecting and monitoring in real time tsunami events, based on changes in infrared radiation emitted from the sea when up thrust crustal movements from a major or a great tsunamigenic earthquake disturb the ocean floor and change the thermal properties of the water column in the source region. Specifically, we describe the hardware and software components of this system and present its performance results from recent tsunamis. Declouding of satellite images is often required and this is accomplished by the application of wavelet analysis. Also, in the present study we address the problem of signal delay due to the satellite scanning cycle and discuss possible solutions. Finally, we enumerate the relative benefits of our system. Our proposed system is available to all the countries with access to a geostationary weather satellite.


    George Pararas-Carayannis


    Full Text Available Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, volcanic island flank failures and underwater slides have generated numerous destructive tsunamis in the Caribbean region. Convergent, compressional and collisional tectonic activity caused primarily from the eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate in relation to the North American, Atlantic and South American Plates, is responsible for zones of subduction in the region, the formation of island arcs and the evolution of particular volcanic centers on the overlying plate. The inter-plate tectonic interaction and deformation along these marginal boundaries result in moderate seismic and volcanic events that can generate tsunamis by a number of different mechanisms. The active geo-dynamic processes have created the Lesser Antilles, an arc of small islands with volcanoes characterized by both effusive and explosive activity. Eruption mechanisms of these Caribbean volcanoes are complex and often anomalous. Collapses of lava domes often precede major eruptions, which may vary in intensity from Strombolian to Plinian. Locally catastrophic, short-period tsunami-like waves can be generated directly by lateral, direct or channelized volcanic blast episodes, or in combination with collateral air pressure perturbations, nuéss ardentes, pyroclastic flows, lahars, or cascading debris avalanches. Submarine volcanic caldera collapses can also generate locally destructive tsunami waves. Volcanoes in the Eastern Caribbean Region have unstable flanks. Destructive local tsunamis may be generated from aerial and submarine volcanic edifice mass edifice flank failures, which may be triggered by volcanic episodes, lava dome collapses, or simply by gravitational instabilities. The present report evaluates volcanic mechanisms, resulting flank failure processes and their potential for tsunami generation. More specifically, the report evaluates recent volcanic eruption mechanisms of the Soufriere Hills volcano on Montserrat, of Mt. Pel

  10. Historical Tsunami Event Locations with Runups

    Department of Homeland Security — The Global Historical Tsunami Database provides information on over 2,400 tsunamis from 2100 BC to the present in the the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans; and...


    Daniel A. Walker


    Full Text Available A review of historical data for Hawaii reveals that significant tsunamis have been reported for only four of twenty-six potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes from 1868 through 2009 with magnitudes of 6.0 or greater. During the same time period, three significant tsunamis have been reported for substantially smaller earthquakes. This historical perspective, the fact that the last significant local tsunami occurred in 1975, and an understandable preoccupation with tsunamis generated around the margins of the Pacific, all combine to suggest apparent deficiencies in: (1 personal awareness of what to do in the event of a possible local tsunami; (2 the distribution of instrumentation capable of providing rapid confirmation that a local tsunami has been generated; and (3 the subsequent issuance of timely warnings for local tsunamis. With these deficiencies, far more lives may be lost in Hawaii due to local tsunamis than will result from tsunamis that have originated along the margins of the Pacific. Similar deficiencies may exist in other areas of the world threatened by local tsunamis.

  12. Influence of sedimentary layering on tsunami generation

    Dutykh, Denys


    The present article is devoted to the influence of sediment layers on the process of tsunami generation. The main scope here is to demonstrate and especially quantify the effect of sedimentation on seabed vertical displacements due to an underwater earthquake. The fault is modelled as a Volterra-type dislocation in an elastic half-space. The elastodynamics equations are integrated with a finite element method. A comparison between two cases is performed. The first one corresponds to the classical situation of an elastic homogeneous and isotropic half-space, which is traditionally used for the generation of tsunamis. The second test case takes into account the presence of a sediment layer separating the oceanic column from the hard rock. Some important differences are revealed. The results of the present study may partially explain why the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 produced such a big tsunami. More precisely, we conjecture that the wave amplitude in the generation region may have bee...

  13. Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.


    The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013) in this encyclopedia.

  14. Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan


    Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

  15. Tsunami Modeling of Hikurangi Trench M9 Events: Case Study for Napier, New Zealand

    Williams, C. R.; Nyst, M.; Farahani, R.; Bryngelson, J.; Lee, R.; Molas, G.


    RMS has developed a tsunami model for New Zealand for the insurance industry to price and to manage their tsunami risks. A key tsunamigenic source for New Zealand is the Hikurangi Trench that lies offshore on the eastside of the North Island. The trench is the result of the subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North Island at a rate of 40-45 mm/yr. Though there have been no M9 historical events on the Hikurangi Trench, events in this magnitude range are considered in the latest version of the National Seismic Hazard Maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2012). The RMS modeling approaches the tsunami lifecycle in three stages: event generation, ocean wave propagation, and coastal inundation. The tsunami event generation is modeled based on seafloor deformation resulting from an event rupture model. The ocean wave propagation and coastal inundation are modeled using a RMS-developed numerical solver, implemented on graphic processing units using a finite-volume approach to approximate two-dimensional, shallow-water wave equations over the ocean and complex topography. As the tsunami waves enter shallow water and approach the coast, the RMS model calculates the propagation of the waves along the wet-dry interface considering variable land friction. The initiation and characteristics of the tsunami are based on the event rupture model. As there have been no historical M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench, this rupture characterization posed unique challenges. This study examined the impacts of a suite of event rupture models to understand the key drivers in the variations in the tsunami inundation footprints. The goal was to develop a suite of tsunamigenic event characterizations that represent a range of potential tsunami outcomes for M9 events on the Hikurangi Trench. The focus of this case study is the Napier region as it represents an important exposure concentration in the region and has experience tsunami inundations in the past including during the 1931 Ms7

  16. Numerical modelling of historical landslide-generated tsunamis in the French Lesser Antilles

    Poisson, B.; Pedreros, R.


    Two historical landslide-induced tsunamis that reached the coasts of the French Lesser Antilles are studied. First, the Martinique coast was hit by a tsunami down the western flank of Montagne Pelée at the beginning of the big eruption of May 1902. More recently, the northeastern coast of Guadeloupe was affected by a tsunami that had been generated around Montserrat by pyroclastic flows entering the sea, during the July 2003 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano. We use a modified version of the GEOWAVE model to compute numerical simulations of both events. Two source hypotheses are considered for each tsunami. The comparison of the simulation results with reported tsunami height data helps to discriminate between the tested source decriptions. In the Martinique case, we obtain a better fit to data when considering three successive lahars entering the sea, as a simplified single source leads to an overstimation of the tsunami wave heights at the coast. In the Montserrat case, the best model uses a unique source which volume corresponds to published data concerning the peak volume flow. These findings emphasize the importance of an accurate description of the relevant volume as well as the timing sequence of the source event in landslide-generated tsunami modelling. They also show that considering far-field effects in addition to near-field effects may significantly improve tsunami modelling.

  17. Chapter two: Phenomenology of tsunamis II: scaling, event statistics, and inter-event triggering

    Geist, Eric L.


    Observations related to tsunami catalogs are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. An examination of scaling relationships between earthquake size (as expressed by scalar seismic moment and mean slip) and tsunami size (as expressed by mean and maximum local run-up and maximum far-field amplitude) indicates that scaling is significant at the 95% confidence level, although there is uncertainty in how well earthquake size can predict tsunami size (R2 ~ 0.4-0.6). In examining tsunami event statistics, current methods used to estimate the size distribution of earthquakes and landslides and the inter-event time distribution of earthquakes are first reviewed. These methods are adapted to estimate the size and inter-event distribution of tsunamis at a particular recording station. Using a modified Pareto size distribution, the best-fit power-law exponents of tsunamis recorded at nine Pacific tide-gauge stations exhibit marked variation, in contrast to the approximately constant power-law exponent for inter-plate thrust earthquakes. With regard to the inter-event time distribution, significant temporal clustering of tsunami sources is demonstrated. For tsunami sources occurring in close proximity to other sources in both space and time, a physical triggering mechanism, such as static stress transfer, is a likely cause for the anomalous clustering. Mechanisms of earthquake-to-earthquake and earthquake-to-landslide triggering are reviewed. Finally, a modification of statistical branching models developed for earthquake triggering is introduced to describe triggering among tsunami sources.

  18. Tsunami generation, propagation, and run-up with a high-order Boussinesq model

    Fuhrman, David R.; Madsen, Per A.


    In this work we extend a high-order Boussinesq-type (finite difference) model, capable of simulating waves out to wavenumber times depth kh landslide-induced tsunamis. The extension is straight forward, requiring only....... The Boussinesq-type model is then used to simulate numerous tsunami-type events generated from submerged landslides, in both one and two horizontal dimensions. The results again compare well against previous experiments and/or numerical simulations. The new extension compliments recently developed run...

  19. Tsunami flooding

    Geist, Eric; Jones, Henry; McBride, Mark; Fedors, Randy


    Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to earthquake sources for tsunamis, PTHA for extreme events necessitates the inclusion of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, and treatment of the large attendant uncertainty in source characterization and recurrence rates. Tsunamis can be caused by local and distant earthquakes, landslides, volcanism, and asteroid/meteorite impacts. Coastal flooding caused by storm surges and seiches is covered in Panel 7. Tsunamis directly tied to earthquakes, the similarities with (and path forward offered by) the PSHA approach for PTHA, and especially submarine landslide tsunamis were a particular focus of Panel 5.

  20. Tsunami geology in paleoseismology

    Yuichi Nishimura,; Jaffe, Bruce E.


    The 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki disasters dramatically demonstrated the destructiveness and deadliness of tsunamis. For the assessment of future risk posed by tsunamis it is necessary to understand past tsunami events. Recent work on tsunami deposits has provided new information on paleotsunami events, including their recurrence interval and the size of the tsunamis (e.g. [187–189]). Tsunamis are observed not only on the margin of oceans but also in lakes. The majority of tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but other events that displace water such as landslides and volcanic eruptions can also generate tsunamis. These non-earthquake tsunamis occur less frequently than earthquake tsunamis; it is, therefore, very important to find and study geologic evidence for past eruption and submarine landslide triggered tsunami events, as their rare occurrence may lead to risks being underestimated. Geologic investigations of tsunamis have historically relied on earthquake geology. Geophysicists estimate the parameters of vertical coseismic displacement that tsunami modelers use as a tsunami's initial condition. The modelers then let the simulated tsunami run ashore. This approach suffers from the relationship between the earthquake and seafloor displacement, the pertinent parameter in tsunami generation, being equivocal. In recent years, geologic investigations of tsunamis have added sedimentology and micropaleontology, which focus on identifying and interpreting depositional and erosional features of tsunamis. For example, coastal sediment may contain deposits that provide important information on past tsunami events [190, 191]. In some cases, a tsunami is recorded by a single sand layer. Elsewhere, tsunami deposits can consist of complex layers of mud, sand, and boulders, containing abundant stratigraphic evidence for sediment reworking and redeposition. These onshore sediments are geologic evidence for tsunamis and are called ‘tsunami deposits’ (Figs. 26

  1. Tsunami flooding along Tagus estuary, Portugal, the 1531 event

    Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Batlo, J.; Ferreira, H.


    TSUNAMI FLOODING ALONG TAGUS ESTUARY (PORTUGAL), THE 1531 EVENT The city of Lisbon one of the main towns in Europe between the XVI and XVIII centuries was severely damaged by two strong earthquakes: 1531-01-26 and 1755-11-01 and the companion tsunamis. In this study we present a re-evaluation of the data available for this event. The 26 January 1531 earthquake occurred between 4 and 5 am and was felt mainly in Lisbon and surroundings dwellings along the Tagus river estuary. The shock heavily destroyed Lisbon downtown causing approximately 1000 casualties Two foreshocks preceded the event: on the 2nd and the 7th January 1531, respectively. The maximum MSK intensity is IX, making it one of the most disastrous earthquakes in the recent history of Portugal. The historical descriptions clearly describe the observation of high waves and the ships touching the riverbed. Although, the difference between tsunamis and storms is sometimes unclear in some historical documents, in this case, the occurrence of the of the earthquake definitively states clearly excludes the hypothesis of a storm. Moreover, the king's chronicle clearly states the observation of high waves and the lack of wind. Other reports consistent with the occurrence of a tsunami are the observation of strong fluxes and refluxes in the river the division of islands into smaller ones and the observation of the riverbed. In this study we present a re-appraisal of the historical information available, a new isoseismal map and the relocation of the epicentre. Finally, we present a tsunami simulation and propagation along a section of 70 km along Tagus estuary compatible with the earthquake data and the historical accounts.

  2. Probabilistic Hazard of Tsunamis Generated by Submarine Landslides in the Cook Strait Canyon (New Zealand)

    Lane, Emily M.; Mountjoy, Joshu J.; Power, William L.; Mueller, Christof


    Cook Strait Canyon is a submarine canyon that lies within ten kilometres of Wellington, the capital city of New Zealand. The canyon walls are covered with scars from previous landslides which could have caused local tsunamis. Palaeotsunami evidence also points to past tsunamis in the Wellington region. Furthermore, the canyon's location in Cook Strait means that there is inhabited land in the path of both forward- and backward-propagating waves. Tsunamis induced by these submarine landslides pose hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure but major events are very uncommon and the historical record is not extensive enough to quantify this hazard. The combination of infrequent but potentially very consequential events makes realistic assessment of the hazard challenging. However, information on both magnitude and frequency is very important for land use planning and civil defence purposes. We use a multidisciplinary approach bringing together geological information with modelling to construct a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of submarine landslide-generated tsunami. Although there are many simplifying assumptions used in this assessment, it suggests that the Cook Strait open coast is exposed to considerable hazard due to submarine landslide-generated tsunamis. We emphasise the uncertainties involved and present opportunities for future research.

  3. Event generators at BESⅢ

    PING Rong-Gang


    We present a brief remark and introduction to event generators for tau-charm physics currently used at BESⅢ,including KKMC,BesEvtGen,Bhlumi,Bhwide,Babayaga and inclusive Monte-Carlo event generators.This paper provides basic information on event generators for BESⅢ users.

  4. Sedimentary Record and Morphological Effects of a Landslide-Generated Tsunami in a Polar Region: The 2000 AD Tsunami in Vaigat Strait, West Greenland

    Szczucinski, W.; Rosser, N. J.; Strzelecki, M. C.; Long, A. J.; Lawrence, T.; Buchwal, A.; Chague-Goff, C.; Woodroffe, S.


    To date, the effects of tsunami erosion and deposition have mainly been reported from tropical and temperate climatic zones yet tsunamis are also frequent in polar zones, particularly in fjord settings where they can be generated by landslides. Here we report the geological effects of a landslide-triggered tsunami that occurred on 21st November 2000 in Vaigat, northern Disko Bugt in west Greenland. To characterise the typical features of this tsunami we completed twelve detailed coastal transects in a range of depositional settings: cliff coasts, narrow to moderate width coastal plains, lagoons and a coastal lake. At each setting we completed a detailed map using a laser scanner and DGPS survey. The tsunami deposits were described from closely spaced trenches and, from the lake, by a series of sediment cores . At each setting we examined the sedimentological properties of the deposits, as well as their bulk geochemistry and diatom content. Selected specimens of arctic willow from inundated and non-inundated areas were collected to assess the impact of the event in their growth ring records. Samples of sediments beneath the AD 2000 deposit were studied for 137Cs to confirm the age of the tsunami and to assess the extent of erosion. Offshore sediment samples, modern beach and soils/sediments underlying the AD 2000 tsunami deposits were sampled to determine tsunami deposit sources. The observed tsunami run-up exceeded 20 m next to the tsunami trigger - a rock avalanche at Paatuut - and up to 10 m on the opposite coast of the fjord. The inland inundation distance ranged from several tens of meters to over 300 m. The wave was recorded as far as 180 km away from the source. The tsunami inundated the coast obliquely to the shoreline in all locations studied. The tsunami frequently caused erosion of existing beach ridges whilst erosional niches were formed inland. The tsunami deposits mainly comprise gravels and very coarse sand. They are over 30 cm thick close to the

  5. Physical modelling of tsunamis generated by three-dimensional deformable granular landslides on planar and conical island slopes.

    McFall, Brian C; Fritz, Hermann M


    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events recorded, yet critically important field data related to the landslide motion and tsunami evolution remain lacking. Landslide-generated tsunami source and propagation scenarios are physically modelled in a three-dimensional tsunami wave basin. A unique pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The landslides were generated on a planar hill slope and divergent convex conical hill slope to study lateral hill slope effects on the wave characteristics. The leading wave crest amplitude generated on a planar hill slope is larger on average than the leading wave crest generated on a convex conical hill slope, whereas the leading wave trough and second wave crest amplitudes are smaller. Between 1% and 24% of the landslide kinetic energy is transferred into the wave train. Cobble landslides transfer on average 43% more kinetic energy into the wave train than corresponding gravel landslides. Predictive equations for the offshore propagating wave amplitudes, periods, celerities and lengths generated by landslides on planar and divergent convex conical hill slopes are derived, which allow an initial rapid tsunami hazard assessment.

  6. Coastal vegetation and its influence on the 2004 tsunami event

    Laso Bayas, J. C.; Marohn, C.; Dercon, G.; Dewi, S.; Piepho, H. P.; Joshi, L.; van Noordwijk, M.; Cadisch, G.


    A tsunami event has several effects once it reaches the shore. Infrastructure damage and casualties are two of its most dire consequences. The intensity of these damages is related to the wave force, which in turn is mostly determined by seaquake intensity and offshore properties. Nevertheless, once on land, the energy of the wave is attenuated by gravity (elevation) and friction (land cover). Despite being promoted as 'bio-shields' against wave impact, tree-belts lack quantitative evidence of their performance in such extreme events, and have been criticized for creating a false sense of security. We have studied some of the land uses in sites affected by the 2004 tsunami event, especially in coastal areas close to the coast of Indonesia, more specifically in the west coast of Aceh, Sumatra. Using transects perpendicular to the coast we analyzed the influence of coastal vegetation, particularly cultivated trees, on the impact of the 2004 tsunami. We developed a spatial statistical model that uses a land cover roughness coefficient to account for the resistance offered by different land uses to the wave advance. The coefficient was built using satellite imagery, land cover maps, land use characteristics such as stem diameter, height, and planting density, as well as a literature review. The spatial generalized linear mixed models used determined that while distance to coast was the dominant determinant of impact (casualties and infrastructure damage), the existing coastal vegetation in front of settlements also significantly reduced casualties by an average of 5%. Despite this positive effect of coastal vegetation in front of a settlement, we also found out that dense vegetation behind villages endangered human lives and increased structural damage. We believe that possibly debris carried by the backwash may have contributed to these dissimilar effects of land cover. The models developed in Indonesia are currently being adapted and tested for the effects that the

  7. Tsunamis generated by 3D granular landslides in various scenarios from fjords to conical islands

    McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.


    Landslide generated tsunamis such as in Lituya Bay, Alaska 1958 account for some of the highest recorded tsunami runup heights. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by pneumatic pistons down slope. Two different landslide materials are used to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are compared between the planar hill slope used in various scenarios and the convex hill slope of the conical island. The energy conversion rates from the landslide motion to the wave train is quantified for the planar and convex hill slopes. The wave runup data on the opposing headland is analyzed and evaluated with wave theories. The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance three-dimensional numerical landslide tsunami prediction models.

  8. Time-Frequency Characteristics of Tsunami Magnetic Signals from Four Pacific Ocean Events

    Schnepf, N. R.; Manoj, C.; An, C.; Sugioka, H.; Toh, H.


    The recent deployment of highly sensitive seafloor magnetometers coinciding with the deep solar minimum has provided excellent opportunities for observing tsunami electromagnetic signals. These fluctuating signals (periods ranging from 10-20 min) are generally found to be within ± ˜1 nT and coincide with the arrival of the tsunami waves. Previous studies focused on tsunami electromagnetic characteristics, as well as modeling the signal for individual events. This study instead aims to provide the time-frequency characteristics for a range of tsunami signals and a method to separate the data's noise using additional data from a remote observatory. We focus on four Pacific Ocean events of varying tsunami signal amplitude: (1) the 2011 Tohoku, Japan event (M9.0), (2) the 2010 Chile event (M8.8), (3) the 2009 Samoa event (M8.0) and, (4) the 2007 Kuril Islands event (M8.1). We find possible tsunami signals in high-pass filtered data and successfully isolate the signals from noise using a cross-wavelet analysis. The cross-wavelet analysis reveals that the longer period signals precede the stronger, shorter period signals. Our results are very encouraging for using tsunami magnetic signals in warning systems.


    George Pararas-Carayannis


    Full Text Available Peru is in a region of considerable geologic and seismic complexity. Thrust faulting along the boundary where the Nazca plate subducts beneath the South American continent has created three distinct seismic zones. The angle of subduction of the Nazca oceanic plate beneath the South American plate is not uniform along the entire segment of the Peru-Chile Trench. Furthermore, subduction is affected by buoyancy forces of the bounding oceanic ridges and fractures - such as the Mendana Fracture Zone (MFZ to the North and the Nazca Ridge to the South. This narrow zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes that can generate destructive tsunamis of varied intensities. The present study examines the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction and migration to the seismicity of Central/Southern Peru and to tsunami generation. The large tsunamigenic earthquake of 23 June 2001 is presented as a case study. This event generated a destructive, local tsunami that struck Peru’s southern coasts with waves ranging from 3 to 4.6 meters (10-15 feet and inland inundation that ranged from 1 to 3 km. In order to understand the near and far-field tsunamigenic efficiency of events along Central/Southern Peru and the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction, the present study examines further the geologic structure of the region and this quake’s moment tensor analysis, energy release, fault rupture and the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Tsunami source mechanism characteristics for this event are presented, as inferred from seismic intensities, energy releases, fault plane solutions and the use of empirical relationships. The study concludes that the segment of subduction and faulting paralleling the Peru-Chile Trench from about 150 to 180 South, as well as the obliquity of convergent tectonic plate collision in this region, may be the reason for shorter rupture lengths of major earthquakes and the generation of only local destructive tsunamis.

  10. Two-Layer Models for Landslide-Generated Tsunamis

    Kirby, J. T., Jr.; Nicolsky, D.; Ma, G.; Shi, F.; Hsu, T. J.; Schnyder, J. S. D.


    We describe the development of a model for landslide tsunami generation based on a depth-integrated, fully deformable lower layer, and apply the resulting model to several laboratory and field cases. The approach follows on earlier studies where models for the slide layer and overlying water layer are formulated in the depth integrated, shallow water approximation, with kinematic and pressure coupling between the layers. In the present study, we use the 3D nonhydrostatic model of Ma et al (2012) to retain fully dispersive behavior in the upper fluid layer. In perfect fluid applications for shallow or intermediate depth waves, the model has been shown to predict tsunami response to solid slides (Enet and Grilli, 2007) with good accuracy using only three vertical sigma levels, making it computationally competitive with weakly dispersive Boussinesq formulations using a single depth-integrated layer. The effect of non-hydrostatic acceleration effects in the lower, depth integrated layer (resulting from steep substrate slopes) is implemented using the approach of Yamazaki et al (2009), who used a layer-averaged approximation for vertical acceleration to correct the hydrostatic pressure distribution. The two coupled models are formulated using a finite volume, TVD approach. Lateral boundaries of the slide volume may be arbitrarily approached relative to the initial still water shoreline, and thus the triggering event may be either submarine, subaerial, or a combination of the two. In our first implementation, we assume the lower layer to be a simple, viscous Newtonian fluid, following the approach of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) as corrected by Fine et al (1998). An alternate model is also constructed based on a rheology model representing a granular or debris flow supported by intergranular stresses, following Savage and Hutter (1989) and Iverson (1997). Both models amount to the addition of a single mass and horizontal momentum equation to the three-layer perfect fluid

  11. Tsunamis generated by 3D deformable landslides in various scenarios: laboratory experiments and numerical modeling

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.; Horrillo, J. J.; Mohammed, F.


    Landslide generated tsunamis such as Lituya Bay, Alaska 1958 account for some of highest recorded tsunami runup heights. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by pneumatic pistons down slope. Two different landslide materials are used to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are compared between the planar hill slope used in various scenarios and the convex hill slope of the conical island. The energy conversion rates from the landslide motion to the wave train is quantified for the planar and convex hill slopes. The wave runup data on the opposing headland is analyzed and evaluated with wave theories. The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance three-dimensional numerical landslide tsunami prediction models. Two 3D Navier-Stokes models were tested, the commercial code FLOW-3D



    Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, volcanic island flank failures and underwater slides have generated numerous destructive tsunamis in the Caribbean region. Convergent, compressional and collisional tectonic activity caused primarily from the eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate in relation to the North American, Atlantic and South American Plates, is responsible for zones of subduction in the region, the formation of island arcs and the evolution of particular volcanic centers on the over...

  13. Storms and tsunamis: evidence of event sedimentation in the Late Jurassic Tendaguru Beds of southeastern Tanzania

    Bussert, Robert; Aberhan, Martin


    In Late Jurassic shallow marine siliciclastic sediments of the dinosaur-bearing Tendaguru Beds from the Mandawa Basin of southeastern Tanzania we identified several event deposits. Based on an analysis of their sedimentological and palaeontological features, a storm-induced origin can be assumed for the majority of these deposits. This interpretation is in agreement with the regional palaeogeography and palaeoclimatological data, and is further supported by the widespread evidence of Late Jurassic storm-controlled sedimentation in adjacent basins along the East African margin. A particularly striking feature is a laterally extensive, conglomeratic bed with gravel components up to 30 cm in diameter, and megaripples indicating southward transport directions. The troughs between ripples are filled by cross-bedded fine-grained sandstones and siltsones with inferred transport directions to the north. Giant bedforms, a mixture of clasts of marine and continental origin, and evidence of opposite current directions suggest that this chaotically deposited sediment may have formed from a tsunami. Within the available time resolution this event is synchronous with the Morokweng impact structure in South Africa. However, because of the considerable distance of Morokweng from the Jurassic sea, direct links between both events cannot be established. Alternative mechanisms such as a landslide-generated tsunami are plausible, but not yet supported by geophysical data.

  14. Multi-scale modelling of submarine landslide-generated tsunamis

    Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.; Collins, G. S.; Smith, R. C.; Allison, P. A.


    Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide, offshore Norway, covers an area larger than Scotland and contains 3,000 km3 of material (enough to cover Scotland to a depth of 80 m). This huge slide occurred at 8.2 ka and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with >20 m run-up around the Norwegian Sea, including the Shetlands, and run-ups were typically 3-4 m along the mainland coast of Scotland. The tsunami propagated as far as East Greenland. Northern Europe faces few, if any, other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat Storegga Slide tsunami. Modelling such vast natural disasters is not straightforward. In order to achieve accurate run-up, high resolution is required near the coastlines, but entire oceans must be modelled to account for the vast distances travelled by the wave. Here, we use the open-source, three-dimensional CFD model, Fluidity, to simulate the Storegga landslide-generated tsunami. Fluidity's unstructured meshing allows resolution to vary by orders of magnitude within a single numerical simulation. We present results from multi-scale simulations that capture fine-scale coastal details and at the same time cover a domain spanning the Arctic ocean to capture run-ups on the East Greenland coast. We also compare the effects of modern vs palaeo-bathymetry, which has been neglected in previous numerical modelling studies. Future work will include assessing other potential landslide sites and how landslide dynamics affect the resulting tsunami wave to be used in hazard assessment for Northern Europe. Close-up of the computational mesh around the UK coast, western Norway and as far east as Iceland. The shift in resolution from 750m at the coast to over 20km in open water is clearly visible. Note the high resolution area to the top left which is the Storegga Landslide region.

  15. Physical Modeling of Landslide Generated Tsunamis in Fjords and around Conical Islands

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.


    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most extreme events recorded in history (Lituya Bay, Alaska, 1958) and can be particularly catastrophic in the near field region. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events using generalized Froude similarity are physically modeled in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with up to 1,350 kg of naturally rounded river gravel which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down the 2H: 1V slope. The granular landslides are launched towards the water surface at velocities of up to 5 m/s resulting in corresponding landslide Froude numbers at impact in the range 1 acoustic array (MTA). Three-dimensional landslide surfaces are reconstructed and the instantaneous landslide surface kinematics measured using the stereo PIV setup. Above and underwater cameras measure the slide deformation at impact and underwater runout, while the slide deposit is measured with the MTA on the basin floor. Runup wave gauges along with overlapping video cameras record the onshore and offshore runup. Empirical equations for predicting wave amplitude, wave period, wave length and near-source runup are obtained. The generated waves are primarily dependent on non-dimensional landslide and water body parameters such as the impact landslide Froude number and relative landslide shape among others. Energy conversion rates between the landslide motion and the generated wave train are quantified. The lateral edge wave and offshore wave propagation velocities are compared against wave theories. Unique characteristics in the wave and runup data caused by topographic and bathymetric features are analyzed. A localized amplification of the runup was observed on the lee-side of the conical island

  16. Simulation of tsunami generation, propagation and coastal inundation in the Eastern Mediterranean

    A. G. Samaras


    Full Text Available In the present work, an advanced tsunami generation, propagation and coastal inundation 2-DH model (i.e. 2-D Horizontal model based on the higher-order Boussinesq equations – developed by the authors – is applied to simulate representative earthquake-induced tsunami scenarios in the Eastern Mediterranean. Two areas of interest were selected after evaluating tsunamigenic zones and possible sources in the region: one at the Southwest of the island of Crete in Greece and one at the East of the island of Sicily in Italy. Model results are presented in the form of extreme water elevation maps, sequences of snapshots of water elevation during the propagation of the tsunamis, and inundation maps of the studied low-lying coastal areas. This work marks one of the first successful applications of a fully nonlinear model for the 2-DH simulation of tsunami-induced coastal inundation; acquired results are indicative of the model's capabilities, as well of how areas in the Eastern Mediterranean would be affected by eventual larger events.


    Daniel A. Walker


    Full Text Available An analysis of magnitudes and runups in Hawaii for more than 200 tsunamigenic earthquakes along the margins of the Pacific reveals that all of the earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.6 or greater produced significant Pacific-wide tsunamis. Such findings can be used as a basis for early warnings of significant ocean-wide tsunamis as a supplement to, or in the absence of, more comprehensive data from other sources. Additional analysis of magnitude and runup data suggests that 1946 type earthquakes and tsunamis may be more common than previously believed.

  18. Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

    McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.


    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 gravel and cobble mixtures. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are compared between the planar hill slope used in

  19. Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

    Tinti, Stefano; Chiocci, Francesco Latino; Zaniboni, Filippo; Pagnoni, Gianluca; de Alteriis, Giovanni


    The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.

  20. Fossiliferous Lana'i deposits formed by multiple events rather than a single giant tsunami.

    Rubin, K H; Fletcher, C H; Sherman, C


    Giant tsunamis, generated by submarine landslides in the Hawaiian Islands, have been thought to be responsible for the deposition of chaotic gravels high on the southern coastal slopes of the islands of Lana'i and Moloka'i, Hawaii. Here we investigate this hypothesis, using uranium-thorium dating of the Hulopoe gravel (on Lana'i) and a study of stratigraphic relationships, such as facies changes and hiatuses, within the deposit. The Hulopoe gravel contains corals of two age groups, representing marine isotope stages 5e and 7 (approximately 135,000 and 240,000 years ago, respectively), with significant geographical and stratigraphic ordering. We show that the Hulopoe gravel was formed by multiple depositional events, separated by considerable periods of time, thus invalidating the main premise of the 'giant wave' hypothesis. Instead, the gravels were probably deposited during interglacial periods (when sea level was relatively high) by typical Hawaiian shoreline processes such as seasonal wave patterns, storm events and possibly 'normal' tsunamis, and reached their present height by uplift of Lana'i.

  1. Use of statistical techniques to account for parameter uncertainty in landslide tsunami generation

    Salmanidou, Dimitra; Guillas, Serge; Georgiopoulou, Aggeliki; Dias, Frederic


    Landslide tsunamis constitute complex phenomena, the nature of which is governed by varying rheological and geomorphological parameters. In an attempt to understand better these mechanisms, statistical methods can be used to quantify uncertainty and carry out sensitivity analyses. Such a method is the statistical emulation of the numerical code used to model a phenomenon. In comparison to numerical simulators, statistical emulators have the advantage of being faster and less expensive to run. In this study we implement a Bayesian calibration which allows us to build a statistical surrogate of the numerical simulators used to model submarine sliding and tsunami generation in the Rockall Bank Slide Complex, NE Atlantic Ocean. For the parameter selection and numerical simulations of the event we make use of a sophisticated sampling technique (Latin Hypercube Sampling). The posterior distributions of the parameters and the predictions made with the emulator are provided.

  2. Advanced Geospatial Hydrodynamic Signals Analysis for Tsunami Event Detection and Warning

    Arbab-Zavar, Banafshe; Sabeur, Zoheir


    Current early tsunami warning can be issued upon the detection of a seismic event which may occur at a given location offshore. This also provides an opportunity to predict the tsunami wave propagation and run-ups at potentially affected coastal zones by selecting the best matching seismic event from a database of pre-computed tsunami scenarios. Nevertheless, it remains difficult and challenging to obtain the rupture parameters of the tsunamigenic earthquakes in real time and simulate the tsunami propagation with high accuracy. In this study, we propose a supporting approach, in which the hydrodynamic signal is systematically analysed for traces of a tsunamigenic signal. The combination of relatively low amplitudes of a tsunami signal at deep waters and the frequent occurrence of background signals and noise contributes to a generally low signal to noise ratio for the tsunami signal; which in turn makes the detection of this signal difficult. In order to improve the accuracy and confidence of detection, a re-identification framework in which a tsunamigenic signal is detected via the scan of a network of hydrodynamic stations with water level sensing is performed. The aim is to attempt the re-identification of the same signatures as the tsunami wave spatially propagates through the hydrodynamic stations sensing network. The re-identification of the tsunamigenic signal is technically possible since the tsunami signal at the open ocean itself conserves its birthmarks relating it to the source event. As well as supporting the initial detection and improving the confidence of detection, a re-identified signal is indicative of the spatial range of the signal, and thereby it can be used to facilitate the identification of certain background signals such as wind waves which do not have as large a spatial reach as tsunamis. In this paper, the proposed methodology for the automatic detection of tsunamigenic signals has been achieved using open data from NOAA with a recorded

  3. Effect of Tsunamis generated in the Manila Trench on the Gulf of Thailand

    Ruangrassamee, Anat; Saelem, Nopporn


    Tsunamis generated in the Manila Trench can be a threat to Thailand. Besides runup of tsunamis along the eastern coast, infrastructures in the Gulf of Thailand, for example, gas pipelines and platforms can be affected by tsunamis. In this study, the simulation of tsunamis in the Gulf of Thailand is conducted. Six cases of fault ruptures in the Manila trench are considered for earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.0, 8.5, and 9.0. The linear shallow water wave theory in spherical coordinate system is used for tsunami simulation in the large area covering Southeast Asia while the nonlinear shallow water wave theory in Cartesian coordinate system is used for tsunami simulation in the Gulf of Thailand. It is found that tsunamis reach the southern part of Thailand in 13 h after an earthquake and reach Bangkok in 19 h. The tsunami amplitude is largest in the direction towards the Philippines and Vietnam. The southern part of China is also severely affected. The Gulf of Thailand is affected by the diffraction of tsunamis around the southern part of Vietnam and Cambodia. The tsunami amplitude at the southernmost coastline is about 0.65 m for the M w 9.0 earthquake. The current velocity in the Gulf of Thailand due to the M w 9.0 earthquake is generally less than 0.2 m/s.

  4. The Pluto event generator

    Froehlich, Ingo [Institut fuer Kernphysik, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Holzmann, Romain [Gesellschaft fuer Schwerionenphysik, 64291 Darmstadt (Germany)


    Pluto is a Monte-Carlo event generator designed for hadronic interactions from close-to-threshold to intermediate energies, as well as for studies of heavy ion reactions. The package is entirely based on Root, without the need of additional packages, and uses the embedded C++ interpreter of root to control the event production. The package includes realistic models of resonance production by using mass-dependent Breit-Wigner sampling. The calculation of partial and total widths for resonances is taken into account. Particular attention is paid to the electromagnetic decays, motivated by the physics program of HADES. For elementary reactions, angular distributions (e.g. for the primary meson emission) can be attached by the user in a very simple way as well as multi-particle correlations. Hand-made models (which may change all decay parameters) can be included by the user without recompilation using the CINT interpreter. This contribution gives an overview of the technical implementation of the framework and presents examples of the included physics.

  5. Identification of elements at risk for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul

    U. Hancilar


    Full Text Available Physical and social elements at risk are identified for a credible tsunami event for Istanbul. For this purpose, inundation maps resulting from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yr are utilised in combination with the geo-coded inventories of building stock, lifeline systems and demographic data. The built environment on Istanbul's shorelines that is exposed to tsunami inundation comprises residential, commercial, industrial, public (governmental/municipal, schools, hospitals, sports and religious, infrastructure (car parks, garages, fuel stations, electricity transformer buildings and military buildings, as well as piers and ports, gas tanks and stations and other urban elements (e.g., recreational facilities. Along the Marmara Sea shore, Tuzla shipyards and important port and petrochemical facilities at Ambarlı are expected to be exposed to tsunami hazard. Significant lifeline systems of the city of Istanbul such as natural gas, electricity, telecommunication and sanitary and waste-water transmission, are also under the threat of tsunamis. In terms of social risk, it is estimated that there are about 32 000 inhabitants exposed to tsunami hazard.

  6. Examination of the largest-possible tsunamis (Level 2) generated along the Nankai and Suruga troughs during the past 4000 years based on studies of tsunami deposits from the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami

    Kitamura, Akihisa


    Japanese historical documents reveal that Mw 8 class earthquakes have occurred every 100-150 years along the Suruga and Nankai troughs since the 684 Hakuho earthquake. These earthquakes have commonly caused large tsunamis with wave heights of up to 10 m in the Japanese coastal area along the Suruga and Nankai troughs. From the perspective of tsunami disaster management, these tsunamis are designated as Level 1 tsunamis and are the basis for the design of coastal protection facilities. A Mw 9.0 earthquake (the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake) and a mega-tsunami with wave heights of 10-40 m struck the Pacific coast of the northeastern Japanese mainland on 11 March 2011, and far exceeded pre-disaster predictions of wave height. Based on the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, the Japanese Government predicted the tsunami heights of the largest-possible tsunami (termed a Level 2 tsunami) that could be generated in the Suruga and Nankai troughs. The difference in wave heights between Level 1 and Level 2 tsunamis exceeds 20 m in some areas, including the southern Izu Peninsula. This study reviews the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and tsunami boulders during the past 4000 years, based on previous studies in the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. The results show that a tsunami deposit dated at 3400-3300 cal BP can be traced between the Shimizu, Shizuoka and Rokken-gawa lowlands, whereas no geologic evidence related to the corresponding tsunami (the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami) was found on the southern Izu Peninsula. Thus, the Rokken-gawa-Oya tsunami is not classified as a Level 2 tsunami.

  7. Numerical modelling of tsunami generated by the 1650 eruption of Kolumbo, South Aegean Sea, Greece

    Ulvrova, M.; Paris, R.; Kelfoun, K.; Nomikou, P.


    Historical 1650 tsunami generated by explosion of Kolumbo volcano was investigated. Using nonlinear shallow water equations implemented in COMCOT tsunami modelling package we simulate for the tsunami generation and propagation, and compute the inundation distances inland along the nearby Santorini island. Two tsunamigenic mechanisms are tested. First, we assume a scenario of phreatomagmatic explosion. Eruption is investigated using a model for shallow underwater explosions. A systematic study is performed for explosion energy range between 1014 and 1017~J. Second, we employed a caldera collapse scenario with duration up to 2~h. The first waves hit the coast of Santorini, the most populated island in the area and also the closest one to Kolumbo ( ˜~7~km), in about 3~min. Calculated inundation distances with predicted nearshore waves amplitudes provide insights into possible tsunami impact and help to assess the tsunami hazard for this region.

  8. Historic and pre-historic tsunamis in the Mediterranean and its connected seas: a review on documentation, geological signatures, generation mechanisms and coastal impacts

    Papadopoulos, Gerassimos; Gràcia, Eulàlia; Urgeles, Roger; Sallares, Valenti; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Pantosti, Daniela; González, Mauricio; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Mascle, Jean; Sakellariou, Dimitris; Salamon, Amos; Tinti, Stefano; Fokaefs, Anna; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Novikova, Tatyana; Papageorgiou, Antonia


    The origin of tsunamis in the Mediterranean region and its connected seas is reviewed. A variety of historical documentary sources combined with evidence from on-shore and off-shore geological signatures, geomorphological imprints, observations from selected coastal archaeological sites, as well as from instrumental records, clearly indicate that seismic and non-seismic (e.g. volcanism, landslides) tsunami sources can be found in all the seas of the region. Local, regional and basin-wide tsunamis have been documented. An improved map of 22 tsunamigenic zones and their relative potential for tsunami generation is presented. From west to east, the most tsunamigenic zones are situated offshore SW Iberia, in North Algeria, in the Tyrrhenian Calabria and Messina Straits, in the western and eastern segments of the Hellenic Arc, in Corinth Gulf (Central Greece), in the Levantine Sea off-shore the Dead Sea Transform Fault and in the eastern Marmara Sea. The mean recurrence of large (intensity≥8) tsunamis in the entire region is ~90 yrs and in the Mediterranean basin ~102 yrs. However, for most of the historical events it is still doubtful which one was the causative seismic fault and if the tsunami was caused by co-seismic fault dislocation or by earthquake-triggered submarine landslides or by a combined source mechanism (e.g. Lisbon 1755). Instrumentally recorded seismic tsunamis (e.g. Messina 1908, S. Aegean 1956) are still with debatable sources. Calculation of seismic slip slowness factor does not indicate that the 1908 and 1956 events were "tsunami earthquakes". In pre-historical times large tsunamis were caused by volcanic processes in Thera and Etna. A tsunami was supposedly generated in the Holocene by the so-called BIG'95 large submarine landslide in W. Mediterranean. The AD 1650 eruption of the submarine Columbo volcano, off-shore Thera, caused an important tsunami but very little is known about its source mechanism. We concluded that investigating further the

  9. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

    Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.


    The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes

  10. Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Generated by Deformable Submarine Slides: Parameterisation of Slide Dynamics for Coupling to Tsunami Propagation Model

    Smith, R. C.; Collins, G. S.; Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.; Mouradian, S. L.


    Numerical modelling informs risk assessment of tsunami generated by submarine slides; however, for large-scale slides modelling can be complex and computationally challenging. Many previous numerical studies have approximated slides as rigid blocks that moved according to prescribed motion. However, wave characteristics are strongly dependent on the motion of the slide and previous work has recommended that more accurate representation of slide dynamics is needed. We have used the finite-element, adaptive-mesh CFD model Fluidity, to perform multi-material simulations of deformable submarine slide-generated waves at real world scales for a 2D scenario in the Gulf of Mexico. Our high-resolution approach represents slide dynamics with good accuracy, compared to other numerical simulations of this scenario, but precludes tracking of wave propagation over large distances. To enable efficient modelling of further propagation of the waves, we investigate an approach to extract information about the slide evolution from our multi-material simulations in order to drive a single-layer wave propagation model, also using Fluidity, which is much less computationally expensive. The extracted submarine slide geometry and position as a function of time are parameterised using simple polynomial functions. The polynomial functions are used to inform a prescribed velocity boundary condition in a single-layer simulation, mimicking the effect the submarine slide motion has on the water column. The approach is verified by successful comparison of wave generation in the single-layer model with that recorded in the multi-material, multi-layer simulations. We then extend this approach to 3D for further validation of this methodology (using the Gulf of Mexico scenario proposed by Horrillo et al., 2013) and to consider the effect of lateral spreading. This methodology is then used to simulate a series of hypothetical submarine slide events in the Arctic Ocean (based on evidence of historic

  11. Tsunamis generated from long, thin, gravitationally accelerated landslides

    Take, Andy; Mulligan, Ryan; Miller, Garrett


    Landslide generated tsunamis are major hazards for developed areas on lakes and reservoirs. Over the past twenty years, enormous advances have been made in both the physical and numerical modeling of the wave generation, wave propagation, and run-up components of this problem by the geoscience community. However, nearly all of the experiments capturing the mechanics of wave generation have been conducted using flume tests of either zero-porosity blocks, or granular material pneumatically accelerated to achieve different impact velocities. Therefore, wave generation has been investigated primarily for physical model landslides that tend to be short, thick, and have a packing that is not entirely dissimilar from the static packing of the material in the release box. In this study we a large-scale landslide flume consisting of an 8.2 m long 30° landslide slope to gravitationally accelerate granular landslides into a 2.1 m wide and 33.0 m long wave flume that terminates with a 27° runup slope, with still water depths of 0.05 to 0.5 m in the reservoir. Granular material is released at the top of the inclined portion of the flume, and is then accelerated under gravity to produce a long, thin, high porosity granular flow prior to impact with the water reservoir. The characteristics of the waves generated under the these conditions are then compared to the results from previous studies on shorter and thicker landslides, before drawing conclusions regarding the applicability of existing empirical models describing the maximum amplitude of landslide generated waves for this class of landslide.

  12. Intraplate Splay Faults and Near-field Tsunami Generation during Giant Megathrust Earthquakes in Chile, Alaska, and Sumatra

    Plafker, G.; Savage, J. C.; Lee, W. H.


    The Mw 9.5 Chile earthquake sequence (21-22/05/1960), the largest instrumentally-recorded seismic event in history, was generated by a megathrust rupture of the southern end of the Peru-Chile Arc about 850 km long and 60-150 km wide down dip. Within Chile, the accompanying tsunami reached 15 m high and took an estimated 1,000 of the more than 2,000 lives lost. The trans-Pacific tsunami killed 230 people in Japan, Hawaii and the Philippine Islands. The tsunami source was primarily due to regional offshore upwarp, with possible superimposed larger local uplift due to displacement on splay faults. The Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake (27/03/1964) ruptured major segments of the eastern Aleutian Arc 800 km long by 250-350 km wide down dip. Coseismic uplift along splay faults offshore generated a major near-field tsunami reaching 13 m high in Alaska that took at least 21 lives. Local earthquake-triggered submarine landslides in fiords along the rugged Kenai and Chugach mountains generated local (non-tsunami) waves with run up to 52 m high that took about 77 lives and caused major damage to coastal communities. Tectonically-generated tsunami waves were also generated over the continental shelf and slope due to regional uplift that averaged about 2 m; these waves added to the damage in coastal Alaska and caused 15 deaths and local property damage as far away as Oregon and California. The Mw 9.15 Sumatra earthquake (26/12/2004) ruptured segments of the Sunda Arc more than 1200 km long by 150-200 km wide down dip. The accompanying near-field tsunami was as high as 36 m in northern Sumatra where it caused 169,000 casualties along 200 km of shoreline while the far-field tsunami took an additional 63,000 lives throughout the Indian Ocean region. This made it the deadliest tsunami in recorded history. In addition to a few meters of regional uplift caused by slip on the megathrust, large-slip splay fault sources are inferred from intraplate seismicity, and from early tsunami arrival


    George Pararas-Carayannis


    well as along the western end of the subduction zone. In fact, recent seismic activity indicates that a large earthquake is possible in the region west of the 1945 event. Such an earthquake can be expected to generate a destructive tsunami.Additionally, the on-going subduction of the two micro-plates has dragged tertiary marine sediments into an accretionary prism - thus forming the Makran coastal region, Thick sediments, that have accumulated along the deltaic coastlines from the erosion of the Himalayas, particularly along the eastern Sindh region near the Indus River delta, have the potential to fail and cause large underwater tsunamigenic slides. Even smaller magnitude earthquakes could trigger such underwater landslides. Finally, an earthquake similar to that of 1945 in the Makran zone of subduction, has the potential of generating a bookshelf type of failure within the compacted sediments – as that associated with the “silent” and slow 1992 Nicaragua earthquake – thus contributing to a more destructive tsunami. In conclusion, the Makran subduction zone has a relatively high potential for large tsunamigenic earthquakes.

  14. Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.


    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are compared between the planar hill slope used in various scenarios and the convex hill slope of the conical island. The energy conversion rates from the landslide motion to the wave train is quantified for the planar and convex hill slopes. The wave runup data on the opposing headland is analyzed and evaluated with wave theories. A method to predict the maximum wave runup on an opposing headland using nondimensional landslide, water body and bathymetric parameters is derived


    Kervin Chunga


    Full Text Available The Ecuadorian shoreline is considered highly susceptible by impacts of tsunamis triggered by marine quakes or submarine landslides occurring close or nearby the subduction zone between the Nazca, Caribbean and South American plates. Since 1877 one dozen known tsunamis have been witnessed along this coast, mostly related to short-distanced seismic activities (earthquakes between Mw 6.9 to 8.8. However, no evidence of these impacts has been recorded in the sedimentary stratigraphy on the Ecuadorian platform so far. Nonetheless, in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Guayaquil, due to a biological, chemical, stratigraphic and geochronologic study of a few cored samples an anomalous horizon to the other sedimentary layers has been identified and recognized as a paleo-tsunami deposit. This layer having a thickness of up to 10 cm and up to 1100 meters away from the actual shore, demonstrates various criteria which confirm its origin such as deep sea foraminifera like Pullenia bulloides, run-up and backwash features, fragments of molluscs, which are absent in other sedimentary levels, matrix of weathered chlorite potentially originated by glauconite besides other. Geocronologic evidence together with the calculated sedimentation rate, implies that a the tsunami surged the coastal lowlands around Villamil Playas about 1250 ± 50 yrs ago and must have been a major event originated from the western or northwestern direction.

  16. Understanding Landslide Tsunami Hazard in Alaska Fjords for Tsunami Inundation Mapping

    Suleimani, E.; Hansen, R.


    Several communities of the southern coast of Alaska are located in glacial fjords, which are fed by major rivers and creeks draining nearby glaciers and depositing sediments into the bays at a high rate. Sediment accumulation on the steep underwater slopes contributes to the landslide tsunami hazard in these communities. During the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964, the majority of tsunami-related deaths was due to local landslide tsunamis that occurred almost immediately after the initial shaking, and without any warning signs. In these coastal communities, tsunami potential from tectonic and submarine landslide sources must be evaluated for comprehensive mapping of areas that are at risk for inundation. We are creating tsunami inundation maps for Seward, Alaska, in the scope of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Seward is a community located at the head of Resurrection Bay, which was hit hard by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the 1964 earthquake. The purpose of the project is long- term prediction of potential landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay, and public education on landslide-related tsunami hazard. In order to construct tsunami inundation maps for Seward, we use an approach that combines modeling of the historical tsunami events of 1964 in Resurrection Bay for model verification, and assessing the landslide tsunami hazard by simulating hypothetical landslide scenarios and performing sensitivity analysis. To reconstruct the sequence of waves observed at Seward on March 27, 1964, we model tsunami waves caused by superposition of the local landslide-generated tsunamis and the major tectonic tsunami. Next we create hypothetical landslide scenarios that are based on the underwater sediment accumulation areas derived from the bathymetry difference maps. Numerical simulations yield runup heights, extent of maximum inundation for chosen tsunami scenarios, depths of inundation on dry land, and maximum velocity

  17. Generator for Centauro Event Simulation

    Gladysz-Dziadus, E; Panagiotou, A D; Sadovsky, S A


    We present a first generator of Centauro events based on the phenomenological model of Panagiotou et al. and show the quantitative consequences for kinematics, baryon number, mass and decay properties of the Centauro fireball and the strange quark matter fireball produced in ion collisions according to the Centauro event scenario.

  18. Evaluation of tsunami risk in the Lesser Antilles

    N. Zahibo


    Full Text Available The main goal of this study is to give the preliminary estimates of the tsunami risks for the Lesser Antilles. We investigated the available data of the tsunamis in the French West Indies using the historical data and catalogue of the tsunamis in the Lesser Antilles. In total, twenty-four (24 tsunamis were recorded in this area for last 400 years; sixteen (16 events of the seismic origin, five (5 events of volcanic origin and three (3 events of unknown source. Most of the tsunamigenic earthquakes (13 occurred in the Caribbean, and three tsunamis were generated during far away earthquakes (near the coasts of Portugal and Costa Rica. The estimates of tsunami risk are based on a preliminary analysis of the seismicity of the Caribbean area and the historical data of tsunamis. In particular, we investigate the occurrence of historical extreme runup tsunami data on Guadeloupe, and these data are revised after a survey in Guadeloupe.

  19. New insights of tsunami hazard from the 2011 Tohoku-oki event

    Goto, K.; Chague-Goff, C.; Fujino, S.; Goff, J.; Jaffe, B.; Nishimura, Y.; Richmond, B.; Sugawara, D.; Szczucinski, W.; Tappin, D.R.; Witter, R.C.; Yulianto, E.


    We report initial results from our recent field survey documenting the inundation and resultant deposits of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from Sendai Plain, Japan. The tsunami inundated up to 4.5. km inland but the > 0.5 cm-thick sand deposit extended only 2.8. km (62% of the inundation distance). The deposit however continued as a mud layer to the inundation limit. The mud deposit contained high concentrations of water-leachable chloride and we conclude that geochemical markers and microfossil data may prove to be useful in identifying the maximum inundation limit of paleotsunamis that could extend well beyond any preserved sand layer. Our newly acquired data on the 2011 event suggest that previous estimates of paleotsunamis (e.g. 869 AD J??gan earthquake and tsunami) in this area have probably been underestimated. If the 2011 and 869 AD events are indeed comparable, the risk from these natural hazards in Japan is much greater than previously recognized. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  20. Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

    Waythomas, C.F.; Watts, P.; Walder, J.S.


    Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

  1. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.


    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

  2. Reconstructing ~2,200 years of mass movement and tsunami events in a deep fjord-type lake, western Norway

    Waldmann, Nicolas; Vasskog, Kristian; Simpson, Guy; Hansen, Louise; Ariztegui, Daniel; Chapron, Emmanuel; Nesje, Atle


    Rock avalanches are one of the most devastating geohazards in Norway. A recent example can be given by the September 1936 rock fall that released ca. 1 million m3 of gneissic bedrock from the Ramnefjell Mountain, 800 m above Lake Lovatnet in inner Nordfjord, western Norway. The rock fall plunged into the lake causing a tsunami with a maximum run-up of 74 m and causing 74 casualties. This rock failure opened a deep-seated fracture that may serve as a sliding surface threatening for the generation of potential new series of failures. Lake Lovatnet was surveyed combining simultaneously 1 in3 airgun multi-channel and 3.5 kHz (pinger) single-channel systems. The seismic survey was complemented by piston cores. The general seismic stratigraphy of the lake was reconstructed using the 1 in3 airgun multi-channel survey. The seismic data shows an overall succession of glaciomarine sediments deposited during glacier retreat at the termination of the last ice age and a transition to marine and lacustrine sedimentation, as glacio-isostatic rebound turned the fjord into a land-locked lake. Furthermore, a record of ~2200 years of mass wasting events were identified and dated in the sedimentary record and the events were further mapped in the geophysical data. A specially tailored physically-based numerical simulation was carried out on the 1936 rock fall and related tsunami event in Lake Lovatnet. This model allowed us to reconstruct the effects of such an event on a small lacustrine basin. The outcome of the model has been further validated against historical, marine and terrestrial information. Results from this study further permit to extend the record of mass wasting events beyond historical times, providing a data set that can be applied to comparable basins at various temporal and geographical scales.

  3. Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary

    Fritz, Hermann M.; Mohammed, Fahad; Yoo, Jeseon


    On July 10, 1958, an earthquake Mw 8.3 along the Fairweather fault triggered a major subaerial landslide into Gilbert Inlet at the head of Lituya Bay on the southern coast of Alaska. The landslide impacted the water at high speed generating a giant tsunami and the highest wave runup in recorded history. The mega-tsunami runup to an elevation of 524 m caused total forest destruction and erosion down to bedrock on a spur ridge in direct prolongation of the slide axis. A cross section of Gilbert Inlet was rebuilt at 1:675 scale in a two-dimensional physical laboratory model based on the generalized Froude similarity. A pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was used to generate a high-speed granular slide with controlled impact characteristics. State-of-the-art laser measurement techniques such as particle image velocimetry (PIV) and laser distance sensors (LDS) were applied to the decisive initial phase with landslide impact and wave generation as well as the runup on the headland. PIV provided instantaneous velocity vector fields in a large area of interest and gave insight into kinematics of wave generation and runup. The entire process of a high-speed granular landslide impact may be subdivided into two main stages: (a) Landslide impact and penetration with flow separation, cavity formation and wave generation, and (b) air cavity collapse with landslide run-out and debris detrainment causing massive phase mixing. Formation of a large air cavity — similar to an asteroid impact — in the back of the landslide is highlighted. A three-dimenional pneumatic landslide tsunami generator was designed, constructed and successfully deployed in the tsunami wave basin at OSU. The Lituya Bay landslide was reproduced in a three-dimensional physical model at 1:400 scale. The landslide surface velocities distribution was measured with PIV. The measured tsunami amplitude and runup heights serve as benchmark for analytical and numerical models.

  4. Generation of realistic tsunami waves using a bottom-tilting wave maker

    Park, Yong Sung; Hwang, Jin Hwan


    Tsunamis have caused more than 260,000 human losses and 250 billion in damage worldwide in the last ten years. Observations made during 2011 Japan Tohoku Tsunami revealed that the commonly used waves (solitary waves) to model tsunamis are at least an order-of-magnitude shorter than the real tsunamis, which calls for re-evaluation of the current understanding of tsunamis. To prompt the required paradigm shift, a new wave generator, namely the bottom-tilting wave generator, has been developed at the University of Dundee. The wave tank is fitted with an adjustable slope and a bottom flap hinged at the beginning of the slope. By moving the bottom flap up and down, we can generate very long waves. Here we will report characteristics of waves generated by simple bottom motions, either moving it upward or downward from an initial displacement ending it being horizontal. Two parameters, namely the initial displacement of the bottom and the speed of the motion, determine characteristics of the generated waves. Wave amplitudes scale well with the volume flux of the displaced water. On the other hand, due to combined effects of nonlinearity and dispersion, wavelengths show more complicated relationship with the two bottom motion parameters. We will also demonstrate that by combining simple up and down motions, it is possible to generate waves resembling the one measured during 2011 tsunami. YSP acknowledges financial support from the Royal Society of Edinburgh through the Royal Society of Edinburgh and Scottish Government Personal Research Fellowship Co-Funded by the Marie-Curie Actions.

  5. The El Asnam 1980 October 10 inland earthquake: a new hypothesis of tsunami generation

    Roger, J.; Hébert, H.; Ruegg, J.-C.; Briole, P.


    The Western Mediterranean Sea is not considered as a high seismic region. Only several earthquakes with magnitude above five occur each year and only a handful have consequences on human beings and infrastructure. The El Asnam (Algeria) earthquake of 1980 October 10 with an estimated magnitude Ms= 7.3 is one of the most destructive earthquakes recorded in northern Africa and more largely in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Although it is located inland, it is known to have been followed by a small tsunami recorded on several tide gauges along the southeastern Spanish Coast. In 1954, a similar earthquake having occurred at the same location induced a turbidity current associated to a submarine landslide, which is widely known to have cut submarine phone cables far from the coast. This event was followed by a small tsunami attributed to the landslide. Thus the origin of the tsunami of 1980 was promptly attributed to the same kind of submarine slide. As no evidence of such mass movement was highlighted, and because the tsunami wave periods does not match with a landslide origin in both cases (1954 and 1980), this study considers two rupture scenarios, that the coseismic deformation itself (of about 10 cm off the Algerian coast near Ténès) is sufficient to produce a low amplitude (several centimetres) tsunami able to reach the Spanish southeastern coast from Alicante to Algeciras (Gibraltar strait to the west). After a discussion concerning the proposed rupture scenarios and their respective parameters, numerical tsunami modelling is performed on a set of bathymetric grids. Then the results of wave propagation and amplification (maximum wave height maps) are discussed, with a special attention to Alicante (Spain) Harbour where the location of two historical tide gauges allows the comparison between synthetic mareograms and historical records showing sufficient signal amplitude. This study is part of the active tsunami hazard assessment in Mediterranean Sea especially

  6. Improving Tsunami Hazard Mitigation and Preparedness Using Real-Time and Post-Tsunami Field Data

    Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.


    The February 27, 2010 Chile and March 11, 2011 Japan tsunamis caused dramatic loss of life and damage in the near-source region, and notable impacts in distant coastal regions like California. Comprehensive real-time and post-tsunami field surveys and the availability of hundreds of videos within harbors and marinas allow for detailed documentation of these two events by the State of California Tsunami Program, which receives funding through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. Although neither event caused significant inundation of dry land in California, dozens of harbors sustained damage totaling nearly $100-million. Information gathered from these events has guided new strategies in tsunami evacuation planning and maritime preparedness. Scenario-specific, tsunami evacuation "playbook" maps and guidance are being produced detailing inundation from tsunamis of various size and source location. These products help coastal emergency managers prepare local response plans when minor distant source tsunamis or larger tsunamis from local and regional sources are generated. In maritime communities, evaluation of strong tsunami currents and damage are being used to validate/calibrate numerical tsunami model currents and produce in-harbor hazard maps and identify offshore safety zones for potential boat evacuation when a tsunami Warning is issued for a distant source event. Real-time and post-tsunami field teams have been expanded to capture additional detailed information that can be shared in a more timely manner during and after an event through a state-wide clearinghouse. These new products and related efforts will result in more accurate and efficient emergency response by coastal communities, potentially reducing the loss of lives and property during future tsunamis.

  7. Evidence for a Mega-Tsunami Generated by Giant Flank Collapse of Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde

    Ramalho, R. S.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Winckler, G.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.


    Mega-tsunamis generated by ocean island flank collapses are expected to be some of the most hazardous forces of nature, yet evidence for their near-source effects and inferred high run-ups so far is scarce or hotly debated. A newly discovered deposit on the northern coast of Santiago Island (Cape Verde), however, documents the magnitude and run-up height associated with this kind of event. Additionally to chaotic conglomerates distributed from sea-level up to 100 m elevation standing on slopes as steep as 20°, the deposit comprises a number of scattered megaclasts of submarine lava flows, limestone and tuff. The megaclasts are presently located over a higher substructural slope built on younger subaerial lava flows and at elevations ranging 160-220 m a.s.l. All megaclasts correspond to lithologies that crop out exclusively in nearby cliff faces. The origin of this deposit is consequently attributed to an exceptional wave that plucked blocks from the cliff face, transported them inland and deposited them over the higher slopes of the volcanic edifice. The distribution of the megaclasts, together with the local geomorphology, is in agreement with a tsunami that approached the island edifice from the west and was refracted along its northern flank, flooding a series of northwest-oriented valleys. This suggests that the well-known flank collapse of Fogo volcano, located 55 km west of Santiago, is the most likely source, a hypothesis being tested with surface exposure dating. The inferred run-up exceeded 200 m and is consistent with numerical simulations by Paris et al. 2011, implying that the present Fogo island morphology probably developed by at least one giant flank collapse with devastating near-source effects.

  8. Generic User Process Interface for Event Generators

    Boos, E; Giele, W T; Hinchliffe, Ian; Huston, J; Ilyin, V A; Kanzaki, J; Kato, K; Kurihara, Y; Lönnblad, L; Mangano, Michelangelo L; Mrenna, S; Paige, Frank E; Richter-Was, Elzbieta; Seymour, Michael H; Sjöstrand, Torbjörn; Webber, Bryan R; Zeppenfeld, Dieter


    Generic Fortran common blocks are presented for use by High Energy Physics event generators for the transfer of event configurations from parton level generators to showering and hadronization event generators.

  9. Simulation of landslide-generated tsunamis with the HySEA platform: Application to the the Lituya Bay 1958 tsunami

    González-Vida, J. M.; Castro, M. J.; Sánchez-Linares, C.; de la Asunción, M.


    We present a PVM-IFCP finite volume scheme for two-layer Savage-Hutter type model to study submarine avalanches (and generated tsunamis) where a layer composed of fluidized granular material is assumed to flow within an upper layer of an inviscid fluid (e. g. water). A coupled hyperbolic PDE system is considered where the fluid layer is modelled by Shallow-Water equations and the sediment layer is modelled by a Savage-Hutter type model where buoyancy effects has been considered. The system is discretized using a PVM (Polynomial Viscosity Matrix) finite volume scheme. In particular we use a first order PVM scheme called IFCP (Intermediate Field Capturing Parabola) by using a suitable decomposition of a Roe matrix by means of a parabolic viscosity matrix that captures information of the intermediate fields. This scheme has been implemented on GPUs for structured and non-structured grids obtaining large speed-ups in comparison with CPUs implementations. We will show how the HySEA web platform is used as interface for real applications of this model. A realistic experiment based on the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami will be shown and the results compared with real data.

  10. Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

    Geist, Eric L.


    Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

  11. Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo


    Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical

  12. Tsunami-generated magnetic fields may constrain focal mechanisms of earthquakes.

    Kawashima, Issei; Toh, Hiroaki


    A geomagnetic observatory named SFEMS is being operated on the deep seafloor in the northwest Pacific since August, 2001. SFEMS is capable of measuring both scalar and vector geomagnetic fields as well as the seafloor instrument's precise attitudes, which makes it a powerful tool in detecting the so-called oceanic dynamo effect. It was found that SFEMS captured clear magnetic signals generated by the giant tsunamis of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake even for an epicentral distance of larger than 1500 km. Here we report estimates of the focal mechanism of a closer tsunamigenic earthquake in January, 2007 on the seaward slope of the Kuril Trench using tsunami-generated variations in the observed downward magnetic component. Three-dimensional solutions of the tsunami-generated magnetic components were calculated by a new numerical code based on non-uniform thin-sheet approximation and particle motions of seawater using the linear Boussinesq approximation. As a result, a southeast dipping fault alone reproduced the dispersive nature of the downward magnetic component, while any northwest dipping faults could not. This implies that the tsunami-generated electromagnetic fields are useful for determination of focal mechanisms of tsunamigenic earthquakes, since fault dips are one of the most difficult source parameters to estimate even in modern seismology.

  13. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.


    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  14. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.


    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  15. Post-eruptive flooding of Santorini caldera and implications for tsunami generation

    Nomikou, P.; Druitt, T. H.; Hübscher, C.; Mather, T. A.; Paulatto, M.; Kalnins, L. M.; Kelfoun, K.; Papanikolaou, D.; Bejelou, K.; Lampridou, D.; Pyle, D. M.; Carey, S.; Watts, A. B.; Weiß, B.; Parks, M. M.


    Caldera-forming eruptions of island volcanoes generate tsunamis by the interaction of different eruptive phenomena with the sea. Such tsunamis are a major hazard, but forward models of their impacts are limited by poor understanding of source mechanisms. The caldera-forming eruption of Santorini in the Late Bronze Age is known to have been tsunamigenic, and caldera collapse has been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we present bathymetric and seismic evidence showing that the caldera was not open to the sea during the main phase of the eruption, but was flooded once the eruption had finished. Inflow of water and associated landsliding cut a deep, 2.0-2.5 km3, submarine channel, thus filling the caldera in less than a couple of days. If, as at most such volcanoes, caldera collapse occurred syn-eruptively, then it cannot have generated tsunamis. Entry of pyroclastic flows into the sea, combined with slumping of submarine pyroclastic accumulations, were the main mechanisms of tsunami production.

  16. On the use of Paleo DEMS for Simulation of historical Tsunami Events

    Wronna, Martin; Baptista, Maria Ana; Götz, Joachim


    In this study, we present a methodology to reconstruct a Paleo Digital Elevation Model (PDEM) to alter geomorphological contexts between the present and the desired paleo period. We aim to simulate a historical tsunami propagation in the same geomorphological contexts of the time of the event. The methodology uses a combination of historical data, GPS-measurements with more recent LIDAR data to build PDEMs. Antique maps are georeferenced; altitude elevations are attributed through descriptions, and old pictures are used to estimate the original outline of a given site. Antique maps are georeferenced to obtain the location of landform and building features. Analysis and interpretation of the historical accounts, descriptions and old pictures serve to attribute an approximate elevation to landform and building features. River mouths and water courses outline can be rebuilt by the boundaries as given in the antique maps. Analysis of present day river mouths with similar characteristics permits the reconstruction of the antique water courses. GPS-RTK measurements along chosen river mouths' in similar geomorphologic environments is used to derive their inclination. We applied this methodology to the 1st November 1755 flooding of Cascais-Portugal. Our results show that using the PDEM we can reproduce the inundation described in most of the historical accounts. This study received funding from project ASTARTE- Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe a collaborative project Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3

  17. Tsunami Hockey

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.


    minute simulated time steps takes approximately 50 minutes on the same system. These animations are generated quickly enough to provide decision support for emergency managers whose coastlines may be impacted by the tsunami several hours later. Tsunami reflections can also aid in determining the source region for those tsunamis generated by non-seismic mechanisms without a clear source such as meteotsunamis, tsunamis generated by meteorological phenomena. A derecho that crossed the New Jersey coast and entered the Atlantic Ocean at approximately 1500 UTC June 13, 2013 generated a meteotsunami that struck the northeast coast of the US causing several injuries. A DART sensor off Montauk, NY, recorded tsunami waves approximately 200 minutes apart. We show how the arrival times of the tsunamis recorded by this DART can help to constrain the source region of the meteotsunami. We also examine other reflections produced by the Haida Gwaii 2012, Tohoku 2011, and other tsunamis.

  18. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario



    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  19. Comparing approaches for numerical modelling of tsunami generation by deformable submarine slides

    Smith, Rebecca C.; Hill, Jon; Collins, Gareth S.; Piggott, Matthew D.; Kramer, Stephan C.; Parkinson, Samuel D.; Wilson, Cian


    Tsunami generated by submarine slides are arguably an under-considered risk in comparison to earthquake-generated tsunami. Numerical simulations of submarine slide-generated waves can be used to identify the important factors in determining wave characteristics. Here we use Fluidity, an open source finite element code, to simulate waves generated by deformable submarine slides. Fluidity uses flexible unstructured meshes combined with adaptivity which alters the mesh topology and resolution based on the simulation state, focussing or reducing resolution, when and where it is required. Fluidity also allows a number of different numerical approaches to be taken to simulate submarine slide deformation, free-surface representation, and wave generation within the same numerical framework. In this work we use a multi-material approach, considering either two materials (slide and water with a free surface) or three materials (slide, water and air), as well as a sediment model (sediment, water and free surface) approach. In all cases the slide is treated as a viscous fluid. Our results are shown to be consistent with laboratory experiments using a deformable submarine slide, and demonstrate good agreement when compared with other numerical models. The three different approaches for simulating submarine slide dynamics and tsunami wave generation produce similar waveforms and slide deformation geometries. However, each has its own merits depending on the application. Mesh adaptivity is shown to be able to reduce the computational cost without compromising the accuracy of results.


    Robert L. Wiegel


    Full Text Available I have expanded substantially my list of information sources on: tsunami generation (sources, impulsive mechanisms, propagation, effects of nearshore bathymetry, and wave run-up on shore - including physical (hydraulic modeling and numerical modeling. This expanded list includes the subjects of field investigations of tsunamis soon after an event; damage effects in harbors on boats, ships, and facilities; tsunami wave-induced forces; damage by tsunami waves to structures on shore; scour/erosion; hazard mitigation; land use planning; zoning; siting, design, construction and maintenance of structures and infrastructure; public awareness and education; distant and local sources; tsunami warning and evacuation programs; tsunami probability and risk criteria. A few references are on "sedimentary signatures" useful in the study of historic and prehistoric tsunamis (paleo-tsunamis. In addition to references specifically on tsunamis, there are references on long water wave and solitary wave theory; wave refraction, diffraction, and reflection; shelf and basin free and forced oscillations (bay and harbor response; seiches; edge waves; Mach- reflection of long water waves ("stem waves"; wave run-up on shore; energy dissipation. All are important in understanding tsunamis, and in hazard mitigation. References are given on subaerial and submarine landslide (and rockfall generated waves in reservoirs, fjords, bays, and ocean; volcano explosive eruptions/collapse; underwater and surface explosions; asteroid impact. This report is in two parts: 1 Bibliographies, books and pamphlets, catalogs, collections, journals and newsletters, maps, organizations, proceedings, videos and photos; 2 Articles, papers, reports listed alphabetically by author.Many papers on the Indian Ocean (Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, were given at the 22nd IUGG International Tsunami Symposium, Chania, Crete, 27-29 June 2005, but had not been published at the date of this report. For

  1. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Paris, Raphaël


    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness.

  2. Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

    Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis


    This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  3. NOAA's Tsunami Information Portal

    Shiro, B.; Carrick, J.; Hellman, S. B.; Bernard, M.; Dildine, W. P.


    We present the new website, which delivers a single authoritative source of tsunami information for the public and emergency management communities. The site efficiently merges information from NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWC's) by way of a comprehensive XML feed called Tsunami Event XML (TEX). The resulting unified view allows users to quickly see the latest tsunami alert status in geographic context without having to understand complex TWC areas of responsibility. The new site provides for the creation of a wide range of products beyond the traditional ASCII-based tsunami messages. The publication of modern formats such as Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) can drive geographically aware emergency alert systems like FEMA's Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS). Supported are other popular information delivery systems, including email, text messaging, and social media updates. The portal allows NOAA staff to easily edit content and provides the facility for users to customize their viewing experience. In addition to access by the public, emergency managers and government officials may be offered the capability to log into the portal for special access rights to decision-making and administrative resources relevant to their respective tsunami warning systems. The site follows modern HTML5 responsive design practices for optimized use on mobile as well as non-mobile platforms. It meets all federal security and accessibility standards. Moving forward, we hope to expand to encompass tsunami-related content currently offered on separate websites, including the NOAA Tsunami Website, National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, National Geophysical Data Center's Tsunami Database, and National Data Buoy Center's DART Program. This project is part of the larger Tsunami Information Technology Modernization Project, which is consolidating the software architectures of NOAA's existing TWC's into

  4. Generation of surface waves by an underwater moving bottom: Experiments and application to tsunami modelling

    Jamin, Timothée; Ruiz-Chavarría, Gerardo; Berhanu, Michael; Falcon, Eric


    We report laboratory experiments on surface waves generated in a uniform fluid layer whose bottom undergoes a sudden upward motion. Simultaneous measurements of the free-surface deformation and the fluid velocity field are focused on the role of the bottom kinematics in wave generation. We observe that the fluid layer transfers bottom motion to the free surface as a temporal high-pass filter coupled with a spatial low-pass filter. Both filter effects are usually neglected in tsunami warning systems. Our results display good agreement with a prevailing linear theory without fitting parameter. Based on our experimental data, we provide a new theoretical approach for the rapid kinematics limit that is applicable even for non-flat bottoms: a key step since most approaches assume a uniform depth. This approach can be easily appended to tsunami simulations under arbitrary topography.

  5. Tsunamis - General

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tsunami is a Japanese word meaning harbor wave. It is a water wave or a series of waves generated by an impulsive vertical displacement of the surface of the ocean...

  6. Statistical Analysis of Tsunami Variability

    Zolezzi, Francesca; Del Giudice, Tania; Traverso, Chiara; Valfrè, Giulio; Poggi, Pamela; Parker, Eric J.


    The purpose of this paper was to investigate statistical variability of seismically generated tsunami impact. The specific goal of the work was to evaluate the variability in tsunami wave run-up due to uncertainty in fault rupture parameters (source effects) and to the effects of local bathymetry at an individual location (site effects). This knowledge is critical to development of methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Two types of variability were considered: • Inter-event; • Intra-event. Generally, inter-event variability refers to the differences of tsunami run-up at a given location for a number of different earthquake events. The focus of the current study was to evaluate the variability of tsunami run-up at a given point for a given magnitude earthquake. In this case, the variability is expected to arise from lack of knowledge regarding the specific details of the fault rupture "source" parameters. As sufficient field observations are not available to resolve this question, numerical modelling was used to generate run-up data. A scenario magnitude 8 earthquake in the Hellenic Arc was modelled. This is similar to the event thought to have caused the infamous 1303 tsunami. The tsunami wave run-up was computed at 4020 locations along the Egyptian coast between longitudes 28.7° E and 33.8° E. Specific source parameters (e.g. fault rupture length and displacement) were varied, and the effects on wave height were determined. A Monte Carlo approach considering the statistical distribution of the underlying parameters was used to evaluate the variability in wave height at locations along the coast. The results were evaluated in terms of the coefficient of variation of the simulated wave run-up (standard deviation divided by mean value) for each location. The coefficient of variation along the coast was between 0.14 and 3.11, with an average value of 0.67. The variation was higher in areas of irregular coast. This level of variability is

  7. Green mosses date the Storegga tsunami to the chilliest decades of the 8.2 ka cold event

    Bondevik, Stein; Stormo, Svein Kristian; Skjerdal, Gudrun


    Chlorophyll in dead plants ordinarily decomposes completely before permanent burial through exposure to light, water and oxygen. Here we describe 8000-year-old terrestrial mosses that retain several percent of its original chlorophyll. The mosses were ripped of the land surface, carried 50-100 m off the Norwegian coast of the time, and deposited in depressions on the sea floor by the Storegga tsunami. A little of the chlorophyll survived because, within hours after entraining it, the tsunami buried the mosses in shell-rich sediments. These sediments preserved the chlorophyll by keeping out light and oxygen, and by keeping the pH above 7—three factors known to favour chlorophyll's stability. Because the green mosses were buried alive, their radiocarbon clock started ticking within hours after the Storegga Slide had set off the tsunami. Radiocarbon measurement of the mosses therefore give slide ages of uncommon geological precision, and these, together with a sequence of ages above and below the boundary, date the Storegga Slide to the chilliest decades of the 8.2 ka cold event at 8120-8175 years before AD 1950. North Atlantic coastal- and fjord- climatic records claimed to show evidence of the 8.2 cold event should be carefully examined for possible contamination and disturbance from the Storegga tsunami.

  8. Source of the tsunami generated by the 1650 AD eruption of Kolumbo submarine volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece)

    Ulvrova, Martina; Paris, R.; Nomikou, P.; Kelfoun, K.; Leibrandt, S.; Tappin, D. R.; McCoy, F. W.


    The 1650 AD explosive eruption of Kolumbo submarine volcano (Aegean Sea, Greece) generated a destructive tsunami. In this paper we propose a source mechanism of this poorly documented tsunami using both geological investigations and numerical simulations. Sedimentary evidence of the 1650 AD tsunami was found along the coast of Santorini Island at maximum altitudes ranging between 3.5 m a.s.l. (Perissa, southern coast) and 20 m a.s.l. (Monolithos, eastern coast), corresponding to a minimum inundation of 360 and 630 m respectively. Tsunami deposits consist of an irregular 5 to 30 cm thick layer of dark grey sand that overlies pumiceous deposits erupted during the Minoan eruption and are found at depths of 30-50 cm below the surface. Composition of the tsunami sand is similar to the composition of the present-day beach sand but differs from the pumiceous gravelly deposits on which it rests. The spatial distribution of the tsunami deposits was compared to available historical records and to the results of numerical simulations of tsunami inundation. Different source mechanisms were tested: earthquakes, underwater explosions, caldera collapse, and pyroclastic flows. The most probable source of the 1650 AD Kolumbo tsunami is a 250 m high water surface displacement generated by underwater explosion with an energy of ~ 2 × 1016 J at water depths between 20 and 150 m. The tsunamigenic explosion(s) occurred on September 29, 1650 during the transition between submarine and subaerial phases of the eruption. Caldera subsidence is not an efficient tsunami source mechanism as short (and probably unrealistic) collapse durations (< 5 min) are needed. Pyroclastic flows cannot be discarded, but the required flux (106 to 107 m3 · s- 1) is exceptionally high compared to the magnitude of the eruption.

  9. Introduction to "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future, Volume I"

    Geist, Eric L.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Tanioka, Yuichiro


    Twenty-five papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume I of the PAGEOPH topical issue "Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future". Six papers examine various aspects of tsunami probability and uncertainty analysis related to hazard assessment. Three papers relate to deterministic hazard and risk assessment. Five more papers present new methods for tsunami warning and detection. Six papers describe new methods for modeling tsunami hydrodynamics. Two papers investigate tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: landslides and meteorological disturbances. The final three papers describe important case studies of recent and historical events. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

  10. Simulation of Andaman 2004 tsunami for assessing impact on Malaysia

    Koh, Hock Lye; Teh, Su Yean; Liu, Philip Li-Fan; Ismail, Ahmad Izani Md.; Lee, Hooi Ling


    Mistakenly perceived as safe from the hazards of tsunami, Malaysia faced a rude awakening by the 26 December 2004 Andaman tsunami. Since the event, Malaysia has started active research on some aspects of tsunami, including numerical simulations of tsunami and the role of mangrove as a mitigation measure against tsunami hazards. An in-house tsunami numerical simulation model TUNA has been developed and applied to the 26 December 2004 Andaman tsunami to simulate the generation, propagation and inundation processes along affected beaches in Malaysia. Mildly nonlinear bottom friction term in the deeper ocean is excluded, as it is insignificant to the simulation results, consistent with theoretical expectation. On the other hand, in regions with shallow depth near the beaches, friction and nonlinearity are significant and are included in TUNA. Simulation results with TUNA indicate satisfactory performance when compared with COMCOT and on-site survey results.

  11. Sedimentary Characteristics of Marine Events from se Coast of India: Case Studies of 2004 Tsunami and 2013 Phailin Cyclone

    Karthikeyan, A.


    The 2004 Indian Tsunami has deposited a varied layer of sand sheets along the coast which depends upon on the coastal topography. Recognition Tsunami deposits were clearly observed as the sand sheets were laid over the soil which is distinctly different due to differences in the weathering and presence of organic material of vegetation. To understand the preservation potential of 2004 tsunami deposits we were studied a transect profile with seven pits sediments along Thiruvengadu coast , Nagapattinam. The study reveals that presence of sand sheets preserved a mínimum of 10 cm thickness to máximum of 22 cm and the distance is 300 from HTL. From the present study six sedimentary layers were identfied which are (a) Top sediments deposited after IOT, (b). Tsunami sand sheets (c) Silty sand (d). Erosional base and top (e) Silty sand (d) Lagoonal sediments. The 2013 Phailin cyclon with wind speed of 220 kmph which was remnant cyclonic circulation from south china; it had major impact on geomorphology and sedimentology of odisha coast. At rushikulya river mouth, Ganjam district, cyclone had produced washover sand sheets as described in eyewitness along the river mouth of both north and south bar. The study reveals that the washover sand sheets provides the inundation of the water level, and characteristics of sediments where storm deposit has a highly variable grain-size distribution with a marked coarsening at its landward extent, is better sorted, coarser, and has a sharp, non-erosional lower contact associated with buried vegetation and soil. Also, the thickness of cyclone deposits are about 5 cm with the distance from coast 80 m, heavy mineral percentage ranges between 9 % to 75% for entire pit and sandsheets lateral extent are about 45 m. The presence of the laminations and alternate layers of heavy minerals are indicative of the complexity of sedimentation on the coast. The recent marine event Phailin cylcone deposits and 2004 tsunami deposits characteristic and

  12. Using tiltmeters for early warning of tsunamis, generated by huge submarine landslides. A case study for Spitsbergen.

    Sascha Brune; Andrey Babeyko; Stephan V. Sobolev


    A submarine landslide west of Spitsbergen could induce a destructive tsunami in the North Atlantic. Here we suggest an effective tool for early warning of tsunamis generated by huge underwater landslides. The method is based on the fact that a displacement of ~1000 km3 of sediment produces a permanent and detectable deformation of earth's lithosphere. We numerically model the ground tilting imposed by the hypothetical Spitsbergen landslide. Virtual inclinometers, positioned at the three dist...

  13. Reconstruction of the sedimentological environment and paleo-tsunami events offshore Jisr Az-Zarka (central Israel)

    Tyuleneva, Natalia; Braun, Yael; Suchkov, Igor; Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly


    Previous research shows that cores retrieved offshore central Israel (Caesarea) have anomalous sedimentary sequences that correspond to at least three tsunami events. Identification of the tsunami horizons was carried out by quantifying the presence of a wide range of characteristics described in modern and paleotsunami analogs. In this study, a sediment core (219cm) was obtained from 15.3 m water depth, some 1.5 km to the south-west of the Crocodile River mouth, offshore the village of Jisr Az-Zarka, and ~4 km north of Caesarea. The core was sampled at 1 cm intervals for grain size and micropaleontological analyses. XRD and XRF analyses were also performed at coarser resolution. The aim of the study was to correlate anomalous layers in the core with previously identified tsunami layers off Caesarea and to test whether their expression differs, given the impact of the river runoff and land material input. An additional aim was to study the inter-event sediments to determine broader environmental changes. This is uniquely possible here because the maximum age of the deposits (change influence; and this portion of the coastline is considered tectonically quiet for at least 2000 years; thereby negating two possible effects on the sedimentological signatures. In this new core two tsunami horizons corresponding with known Caesarea events (~1200 yBP, perhaps 749 AD earthquake; and ~3500 yBP 'Santorini eruption') were recognized, and, one previously unidentified event, dated by 14C to 5.6-6 ka, was discerned as well. The Nile River has been the dominant and most stable source of terrigenous components in the study area, such as siliciclastic quartz for the sand fraction and smectite - for the clays. Thus, the prevailing marine settings are dominated by these two mineralogical components. XRD analysis of nine intervals in the core determined the following clay minerals: smectite, hydromica (illite), chlorite and kaolinite. Normal marine settings are characterized by the

  14. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Application to the Mediterranean Sea

    Sorensen, M. B.; Spada, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wiemer, S.; Grünthal, G.


    Following several large tsunami events around the world in the recent years, the tsunami hazard is becoming an increasing concern. The traditional way of assessing tsunami hazard has been through deterministic scenario calculations which provide the expected wave heights due to a given tsunami source, usually a worst-case scenario. For quantitative hazard and risk assessment, however, it is necessary to move towards a probabilistic framework. In this study we focus on earthquake generated tsunamis and present a scheme for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA). Our PTHA methodology is based on the use of Monte-Carlo simulations and follows probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies closely. The PTHA is performed in four steps. First, earthquake and tsunami catalogues are analyzed in order to define a number of potential tsunami sources in the study area. For each of these sources, activity rates, maximum earthquake magnitude and uncertainties are assigned. Following, a synthetic earthquake catalogue is established, based on the information about the sources. The third step is to calculate multiple synthetic tsunami scenarios for all potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes in the synthetic catalogue. The tsunami scenarios are then combined at the fourth step to generate hazard curves and maps. We implement the PTHA methodology in the Mediterranean Sea, where numerous tsunami events have been reported in history. We derive a 100000 year-long catalog of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes and calculate tsunami propagation scenarios for ca. 85000 M6.5+ earthquakes from the synthetic catalog. Results show that the highest tsunami hazard is attributed to the Eastern Mediterranean region, but that also the Western Mediterranean can experience significant tsunami waves for long return periods. Hazard maps will be presented for a range of probability levels together with hazard curves for selected critical locations.

  15. Landslide tsunami

    Ward, Steven N.


    In the creation of "surprise tsunami," submarine landslides head the suspect list. Moreover, improving technologies for seafloor mapping continue to sway perceptions on the number and size of surprises that may lie in wait offshore. At best, an entirely new distribution and magnitude of tsunami hazards has yet to be fully appreciated. At worst, landslides may pose serious tsunami hazards to coastlines worldwide, including those regarded as immune. To raise the proper degree of awareness, without needless alarm, the potential and frequency of landslide tsunami have to be assessed quantitatively. This assessment requires gaining a solid understanding of tsunami generation by landslides and undertaking a census of the locations and extent of historical and potential submarine slides. This paper begins the process by offering models of landslide tsunami production, propagation, and shoaling and by exercising the theory on several real and hypothetical landslides offshore Hawaii, Norway, and the United States eastern seaboard. I finish by broaching a line of attack for the hazard assessment by building on previous work that computed probabilistic tsunami hazard from asteroid impacts.

  16. Probabilistic Hazard for Seismically-Induced Tsunamis in Complex Tectonic Contexts: Event Tree Approach to Seismic Source Variability and Practical Feasibility of Inundation Maps

    Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Basili, Roberto; Romano, Fabrizio; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Piatanesi, Alessio


    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) rests on computationally demanding numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation up to the inundated coastline. We here focus on tsunamis generated by the co-seismic sea floor displacement, which constitute the vast majority of the observed tsunami events, i.e. on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). For incorporating the full expected seismic source variability, aiming at a complete SPTHA, a very large number of numerical tsunami scenarios is typically needed, especially for complex tectonic contexts, where SPTHA is not dominated by large subduction earthquakes only. Here, we propose a viable approach for reducing the number of simulations for a given set of input earthquakes representing the modelled aleatory uncertainties of the seismic rupture parameters. Our approach is based on a preliminary analysis of the SPTHA of maximum offshore wave height (HMax) at a given target location, and assuming computationally cheap linear propagation. We start with defining an operational SPTHA framework in which we then introduce a simplified Event Tree approach, combined with a Green's functions approach, for obtaining a first controlled sampling and reduction of the effective source parameter space size. We then apply a two-stage filtering procedure to the 'linear' SPTHA results. The first filter identifies and discards all the sources producing a negligible contribution at the target location, for example the smallest earthquakes or those directing most of tsunami energy elsewhere. The second filter performs a cluster analysis aimed at selecting groups of source parameters producing comparable HMax profiles for each earthquake magnitude at the given test site. We thus select a limited set of sources that is subsequently used for calculating 'nonlinear' probabilistic inundation maps at the target location. We find that the optimal subset of simulations needed for inundation calculations can be obtained basing on just the

  17. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN. Geneva


    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  18. Offshore Evidence for an Undocumented Tsunami Event in the 'Low Risk' Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat, Northern Red Sea.

    Beverly Goodman Tchernov

    Full Text Available Although the Gulf of Aqaba-Eilat is located in the tectonically active northern Red Sea, it has been described as low-risk with regard to tsunami activity because there are no modern records of damaging tsunami events and only one tsunami (1068 AD referred to in historical records. However, this assessment may be poorly informed given that the area was formed by and is located along the seismically active Dead Sea Fault, its population is known to fluctuate in size and literacy in part due to its harsh hyper-arid climate, and there is a dearth of field studies addressing the presence or absence of tsunamigenic deposits. Here we show evidence from two offshore cores for a major paleotsunami that occurred ~2300 years ago with a sedimentological footprint that far exceeds the scarce markers of the historically mentioned 1068 AD event. The interpretation is based on the presence of a laterally continuous and synchronous, anomalous sedimentological deposit that includes allochtonous inclusions and unique structural characteristics. Based on sedimentological parameters, these deposits could not be accounted for by other transport events, or other known background sedimentological processes.


    Paul C. Rivera


    Full Text Available A common approach in modeling the generation and propagation of tsunami is based on the assumption of a kinematic vertical displacement of ocean water that is analogous to the ocean bottom displacement during a submarine earthquake and the use of a non-dispersive long-wave model to simulate its physical transformation as it radiates outward from the source region. In this study, a new generation mechanism and the use of a highly-dispersive wave model to simulate tsunami inception, propagation and transformation are proposed. The new generation model assumes that transient ground motion during the earthquake can accelerate horizontal currents with opposing directions near the fault line whose successive convergence and divergence generate a series of potentially destructive oceanic waves. The new dynamic model incorporates the effects of earthquake moment magnitude, ocean compressibility through the buoyancy frequency, the effects of focal and water depths, and the orientation of ruptured fault line in the tsunami magnitude and directivity.For tsunami wave simulation, the nonlinear momentum-based wave model includes important wave propagation and transformation mechanisms such as refraction, diffraction, shoaling, partial reflection and transmission, back-scattering, frequency dispersion, and resonant wave-wave interaction. Using this model and a coarse-resolution bathymetry, the new mechanism is tested for the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004. A new flooding and drying algorithm that consider waves coming from every direction is also proposed for simulation of inundation of low-lying coastal regions.It is shown in the present study that with the proposed generation model, the observed features of the Asian tsunami such as the initial drying of areas east of the source region and the initial flooding of western coasts are correctly simulated. The formation of a series of tsunami waves with periods and lengths comparable to observations

  20. Quakes and tsunamis detected by GOCE (Invited)

    Garcia, R.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Hebert, H.


    The aerodynamic accelerations measured by GOCE are used to calculate air density variations and air velocity estimates along GOCE orbit track. The detection of infrasonic waves generated by seismic surface waves and gravity waves generated by tsunamis are presented for earthquakes and tsunamis generated in Tohoku (11/03/2011) and Samoa (29/09/2009) regions. For the seismic/infrasonic waves, a wave propagation modelling is presented and synthetic data are compared to GOCE measurements. The travel time and amplitude discrepancies are discussed in terms of lateral velocity variations in the solid Earth and the atmosphere. For the tsunami/gravity waves, a plane wave analysis is performed and relations between vertical velocity, cross-track velocity and density variations are deduced. By using these relations, an indicator of gravity wave presence is constructed. It allows scanning of the GOCE data to search for gravity wave crossings. Simulations of the gravity wave crossing space/time ranges, using models of tsunami and gravity wave propagation, demonstrate that the observed gravity waves coincide with model-predicted tsunami generated gravity waves for the Tohoku event. This study demonstrates that very low earth orbit spacecraft with high-resolution accelerometers are able to detect atmospheric waves generated by the tectonic activity. Such spacecraft may supply additional data to tsunami alert systems in order to validate some tsunami alerts.

  1. Historical tsunami in the Azores archipelago (Portugal)

    Andrade, C.; Borges, P.; Freitas, M. C.


    Because of its exposed northern mid-Atlantic location, morphology and plate-tectonics setting, the Azores Archipelago is highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards associated with landslides and seismic or volcanic triggers, local or distal. Critical examination of available data - written accounts and geologic evidence - indicates that, since the settlement of the archipelago in the 15th century, at least 23 tsunami have struck Azorean coastal zones. Most of the recorded tsunami are generated by earthquakes. The highest known run-up (11-15 m) was recorded on 1 November 1755 at Terceira Island, corresponding to an event of intensity VII-VIII (damaging-heavily damaging) on the Papadopolous-Imamura scale. To date, eruptive activity, while relatively frequent in the Azores, does not appear to have generated destructive tsunami. However, this apparent paucity of volcanogenic tsunami in the historical record may be misleading because of limited instrumental and documentary data, and small source-volumes released during historical eruptions. The latter are in contrast with the geological record of massive pyroclastic flows and caldera explosions with potential to generate high-magnitude tsunami, predating settlement. In addition, limited evidence suggests that submarine landslides from unstable volcano flanks may have also triggered some damaging tsunamigenic floods that perhaps were erroneously attributed to intense storms. The lack of destructive tsunami since the mid-18th century has led to governmental complacency and public disinterest in the Azores, as demonstrated by the fact that existing emergency regulations concerning seismic events in the Azores Autonomous Region make no mention of tsunami and their attendant hazards. We suspect that the coastal fringe of the Azores may well preserve a sedimentary record of some past tsunamigenic flooding events. Geological field studies must be accelerated to expand the existing database to include prehistoric events

  2. Tsunami Run-up Heights at Imwon Port, Korea

    Cho, Yong-Sik; Cho, Jeong-Seon


    Tsunami Run-up Heights at Imwon Port, Korea Yong-Sik Cho and Jeong-Seon Cho Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 133-791, Korea. The Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula has been attacked frequently by a number of tsunamis causing severe damages during this century. Among them, 1983 Central East Sea and 1993 Hokkaido Tsunami events were recorded as the most devastating events in Korea. More recently, the Great East Japan Tsunami had also attacked the Korean Peninsula. The Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula is the terminal place where tsunamis climb up inland after it generated along the western coast of Japan. The central part of the coast, in special, is worried as a tsunami danger zone because much tsunami energy is concentrated on by a topographic condition of this region. Recently, several coastal facilities including harbors and breakwaters are built and operated along the Eastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, several nuclear power plants are already operating and several more units are now under construction. Residents who lived alongside the coast want free from unexpected danger, so the tsunami hazard mitigation becomes an important issue of coastal problems in Korea. Through the historical tsunami events, the Imwon Port is known as the place where most severe damage occurred, especially in 1983. An effective and economic way for the tsunami hazard mitigation planning is to construct inundation maps along the coast vulnerable to tsunami flooding. These maps should be built based on the historical tsunami events and the projected scenarios. For this purpose, an accurate estimation of tsunami run-up height and inundation process through the numerical model is needed. As a first step to tsunami mitigation program, the maximum run-up heights at the Imwon Port are computed and compared with field observed data. For this, tsunami run-up heights in this region were filed

  3. Tsunami Casualty Model

    Yeh, H.


    More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.

  4. NOAA/WDC Global Tsunami Deposits Database

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Discover where, when and how severely tsunamis affected Earth in geologic history. Information regarding Tsunami Deposits and Proxies for Tsunami Events complements...

  5. Seismic Shaking, Tsunami Wave Erosion And Generation of Seismo-Turbidites in the Ionian Sea

    Polonia, Alina; Nelson, Hans; Romano, Stefania; Vaiani, Stefano Claudio; Colizza, Ester; Gasparotto, Giorgio; Gasperini, Luca


    We are investigating the effects of earthquakes and tsunamis on the sedimentary record in the Ionian Sea through the analysis of turbidite deposits. A comparison between radiometric dating and historical earthquake catalogs suggests that recent turbidite generation is triggered by great earthquakes in the Calabrian and hellenic Arcs such as the AD 1908 Messina, AD 1693 Catania, AD 1169 Eastern Sicily and AD 365 Crete earthquakes. Textural, micropaleontological, geochemical and mineralogical signatures of the youngest three seismo-turbidites reveal cyclic patterns of sedimentary units. The basal stacked turbidites result from multiple slope failure sources as shown by different sedimentary structures as well as mineralogic, geochemical and micropaleontological compositions. The homogenite units, are graded muds deposited from the waning flows of the multiple turbidity currents that are trapped in the Ionian Sea confined basin. The uppermost unit is divided into two parts. The lower marine sourced laminated part without textural gradation, we interpret to result from seiching of the confined water mass that appears to be generated by earthquake ruptures combined with tsunami waves. The uppermost part we interpret as the tsunamite cap that is deposited by the slow settling suspension cloud created by tsunami wave backwash erosion of the shoreline and continental shelf. This tsunami process interpretation is based on the final textural gradation of the upper unit and a more continental source of the tsunami cap which includes C/N >10, the lack of abyssal foraminifera species wirth the local occurrence of inner shelf foraminifera. Seismic reflection images show that some deeper turbidite beds are very thick and marked by acoustic transparent homogenite mud layers at their top. Based on a high resolution study of the most recent of such megabeds (Homogenite/Augias turbidite, i.e. HAT), we show that it was triggered by the AD 365 Crete earthquake. Radiometric dating

  6. Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

    Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.


    The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

  7. The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

    Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.


    In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast

  8. Event generator tuning using Bayesian optimization

    Ilten, Philip; Yang, Yunjie


    Monte Carlo event generators contain a large number of parameters that must be determined by comparing the output of the generator with experimental data. Generating enough events with a fixed set of parameter values to enable making such a comparison is extremely CPU intensive, which prohibits performing a simple brute-force grid-based tuning of the parameters. Bayesian optimization is a powerful method designed for such black-box tuning applications. In this article, we show that Monte Carlo event generator parameters can be accurately obtained using Bayesian optimization and minimal expert-level physics knowledge. A tune of the PYTHIA 8 event generator using $e^+e^-$ events, where 20 parameters are optimized, can be run on a modern laptop in just two days. Combining the Bayesian optimization approach with expert knowledge should enable producing better tunes in the future, by making it faster and easier to study discrepancies between Monte Carlo and experimental data.

  9. Numerical Study of Tsunami Generated by Multiple Submarine Slope Failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

    Suleimani, Elena; Hansen, Roger; Haeussler, Peter J.


    We use a viscous slide model of J iang and L eB lond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation.

  10. International year of planet earth 7. Oceans, submarine land-slides and consequent tsunamis in Canada

    Mosher, D.C.


    Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.

  11. Numerical simulation of the landslide-generated tsunami in Kitimat Arm, British Columbia, Canada, 27 April 1975

    Skvortsov, A.; Bornhold, B.


    It remains challenging to predict and estimate potential damage from tsunamis using computer models. One of the approaches to validate models is to compare their results with site observations. We carried out numerical modeling for both the underwater landslide and the associated tsunami that occurred near Kitimat, British Columbia, Canada on 27 April 1975. A few observations of high water marks along the coastline indicated 8.2 m tsunami waves. Previous survey results of the seafloor showed that a landslide traveled about 5 km down the axis of the fjord from its source areas on the sidewall of the fjord, near the head of the inlet, and on the lower Kitimat River delta. We modeled the subaqueous slope failure as a Bingham visco-plastic fluid (debris flow) based on previous geotechnical investigations at the site, and numerically solved the landslide-generated tsunami wave and debris flow equations using a finite-volume Godunov-type scheme. This method resolves abrupt wave and landslide front interactions and remains oscillation-free. The computed motion of the debris flow is generally consistent with observations; simulations indicate that the failure propagated approximately 4.5 km down the fjord axis from its inception point. We have found that computed amplitudes for the tsunami wave crest at the coast of Kitimat Arm were between 6 and 11 m; these values are somewhat higher than previous simplistic solitary wave theory estimates of 6.3 m and observations of 8.2 m.

  12. Observations and Modeling of the August 27, 2012 Earthquake and Tsunami affecting El Salvador and Nicaragua

    Borrero, Jose C.; Kalligeris, Nikos; Lynett, Patrick J.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Newman, Andrew V.; Convers, Jaime A.


    On 27 August 2012 (04:37 UTC, 26 August 10:37 p.m. local time) a magnitude M w = 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of El Salvador and generated surprisingly large local tsunami. Following the event, local and international tsunami teams surveyed the tsunami effects in El Salvador and northern Nicaragua. The tsunami reached a maximum height of ~6 m with inundation of up to 340 m inland along a 25 km section of coastline in eastern El Salvador. Less severe inundation was reported in northern Nicaragua. In the far-field, the tsunami was recorded by a DART buoy and tide gauges in several locations of the eastern Pacific Ocean but did not cause any damage. The field measurements and recordings are compared to numerical modeling results using initial conditions of tsunami generation based on finite-fault earthquake and tsunami inversions and a uniform slip model.

  13. Hard probes and the event generator EPOS

    Guiot, Benjamin


    After a short presentation of the event generator EPOS, we discuss the production of heavy quarks and prompt photons which has been recently implemented. Whereas we have satisfying results for the charm, work on photons is still in progress.

  14. Observations of Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) Over the United States Associated With the Tsunami Generated by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

    Duly, T. M.; Azeem, I.; Crowley, G.; Vadas, S.; Makela, J. J.; Reynolds, A.


    The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake generated a massive tsunami off the Pacific coast of Japan which in turn forced intense atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) that were seen in GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) data and airglow measurements as traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID) signatures as far away as Hawaii. What is unknown is how far these TIDs traveled after being launched by the tsunami and the role of the underlying neutral atmosphere on their propagation characteristics. For the first time, we show that TIDs associated with the Tohoku tsunami were observed in GPS TEC data for several hours over the west coast of the US and as far inland as Colorado. The results presented here show a range of TIDs generated by gravity wave packets propagating into the ionosphere from below. We present results indicating the presence of TIDs with periods ranging from 15 to 30 minutes, and horizontal wavelengths from 150 km to 400 km. The azimuth of the observed TID wave train was 121.8 ± 1.8° (angle measured in degrees east of north), which matches the azimuth of the tsunami near the Pacific coast of the US. The observed period of the TIDs was one of the spectral components of the tsunami wave packet as it approached the Pacific coast of the US. These results suggest that the tsunami was the source of the TIDs over the US. Additionally, the TID periods and horizontal wavelengths clearly vary in longitude. These variations agree with theoretical gravity wave results concerning propagation and dissipation in the thermosphere.

  15. Sediment transport on the inner shelf off Khao Lak (Andaman Sea, Thailand) during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storm events: evidence from foraminiferal transfer functions

    Milker, Y.; Wilken, M.; Schumann, J.; Sakuna, D.; Feldens, P.; Schwarzer, K.; Schmiedl, G.


    We have investigated the benthic foraminiferal fauna from sediment event layers associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and former storms that have been retrieved in short sediment cores from offshore environments of the Andaman Sea, off Khao Lak, western Thailand. Species composition and test preservation of the benthic foraminiferal faunas exhibit pronounced changes across the studied sections and provide information on the depositional history of the tsunami layer, particularly on the source water depth of the displaced foraminiferal tests. In order to obtain accurate bathymetric information on sediment provenance, we have mapped the distribution of modern faunas in non-tsunamigenic surface sediments and created a calibration data set for the development of a transfer function. Our quantitative reconstructions revealed that the resuspension of sediment particles by the tsunami wave was restricted to a maximum water depth of approximately 20 m. Similar values were obtained for former storm events, thus impeding an easy distinction of different high-energy events.

  16. A GPU implementation of adaptive mesh refinement to simulate tsunamis generated by landslides

    de la Asunción, Marc; Castro, Manuel J.


    In this work we propose a CUDA implementation for the simulation of landslide-generated tsunamis using a two-layer Savage-Hutter type model and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). The AMR method consists of dynamically increasing the spatial resolution of the regions of interest of the domain while keeping the rest of the domain at low resolution, thus obtaining better runtimes and similar results compared to increasing the spatial resolution of the entire domain. Our AMR implementation uses a patch-based approach, it supports up to three levels, power-of-two ratios of refinement, different refinement criteria and also several user parameters to control the refinement and clustering behaviour. A strategy based on the variation of the cell values during the simulation is used to interpolate and propagate the values of the fine cells. Several numerical experiments using artificial and realistic scenarios are presented.

  17. Development of an online tool for tsunami inundation simulation and tsunami loss estimation

    Srivihok, P.; Honda, K.; Ruangrassamee, A.; Muangsin, V.; Naparat, P.; Foytong, P.; Promdumrong, N.; Aphimaeteethomrong, P.; Intavee, A.; Layug, J. E.; Kosin, T.


    The devastating impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami highlighted the need for an effective end-to-end tsunami early warning system in the region that connects the scientific components of warning with preparedness of institutions and communities to respond to an emergency. Essential to preparedness planning is knowledge of tsunami risks. In this study, development of an online tool named “INSPIRE” for tsunami inundation simulation and tsunami loss estimation is presented. The tool is designed to accommodate various accuracy levels of tsunami exposure data which will support the users to undertake preliminary tsunami risk assessment from the existing data with progressive improvement with the use of more detailed and accurate datasets. Sampling survey technique is introduced to improve the local vulnerability data with lower cost and manpower. The performance of the proposed methodology and the INSPIRE tool were tested against the dataset in Kamala and Patong municipalities, Phuket province, Thailand. The estimated building type ratios from the sampling survey show the satisfactory agreement with the actual building data at the test sites. Sub-area classification by land use can improve the accuracy of the building type ratio estimation. For the resulting loss estimation, the exposure data generated from detailed field survey can provide the agreeable results when comparing to the actual building damage recorded for the Indian Ocean tsunami event in 2004. However, lower accuracy exposure data derived from sampling survey and remote sensing can still provide a comparative overview of estimated loss.

  18. Inversion of tsunami height using ionospheric observations. The case of the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami

    Rakoto, V.; Lognonne, P. H.; Rolland, L.


    Large and moderate tsunamis generate atmospheric internal gravity waves that are detectable using ionospheric monitoring. Indeed tsunamis of height 2cm and more in open ocean were detected with GPS (Rolland et al. 2010). We present a new method to retrieve the tsunami height from GPS-derived Total Electron Content observations. We present the case of the Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii earthquake that occured the 28 october 2012 offshore the Queen Charlotte island near the canadian west coast. This event created a moderate tsunami of 4cm offshore the Hawaii archipelago. Equipped with more than 50 receivers it was possible to image the tsunami-induced ionospheric perturbation. First, our forward model leading to the TEC perturbation follows three steps : (1) 3D modeling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation by summation of tsunami-induced gravity waves normal modes. (2) Coupling of the neutral atmosphere perturbation with the ionosphere to retrieve the electron density perturbation. (3) Integration of the electron density perturbation along each satellite-station ray path. Then we compare this results to the data acquired by the Hawaiian GPS network. Finally, we examine the possibility to invert the TEC data in order to retrieve the tsunami height and waveform. For this we investigate the link between the height of tsunamis and the perturbed TEC in the ionosphere.

  19. Status and developments of event generators

    Sjöstrand, Torbjörn


    Event generators play a crucial role in the exploration of LHC physics. This presentation summarizes news and plans for the three general-purpose pp generators HERWIG, PYTHIA and SHERPA, as well as briefer notes on a few other generators. Common themes, such as the matching and merging between matrix elements and parton showers, are highlighted. Other topics include a historical introduction, from the Lund perspective, and comments on the role of MCnet.

  20. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    A. Suppasri


    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  1. Building Damage and Business Continuity Management in the Event of Natural Hazards: Case Study of the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka

    Masami Sugiura


    Full Text Available The Sumatra Earthquake and Indian Ocean Tsunami event on the 26 December 2004 has provided a unique and valuable opportunity to evaluate the performance of various structures, facilities and lifeline systems during the tsunami wave attacks. There are especially meaningful observations concerning the structural changes due to the tsunami forces, which open up a wide area of research to develop the mitigation procedure. The business restoration process of business companies in terms of buildings, facilities and lifelines have shown greater research interest. In this study, we investigated the restoration process of business sectors in East and South coastal region in Sri Lanka after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. A field survey was conducted in East and South coast of Sri Lanka, in order to study the affecting parameters to damage assessment in the restoration process of the business companies. The results of the questionnaire-based field survey are then compared with the statistical analysis results. Finally, the factors affecting the restoration process after the tsunami are identified. As a main conclusion, financial support could be the most important reason for delays in restoration. Moreover, it has been observed that the tsunami inundation level of higher than one meter may have had more effect concerning the damage to the structures and requires additional time for restoration than other areas.

  2. Tsunami Preparedness in Washington (video)

    Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine


    Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness in Washington distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of this region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD) and with funding by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

  3. Potential predecessors of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami — Sedimentary evidence of extreme wave events at Ban Bang Sak, SW Thailand

    Brill, D.; Brückner, H.; Jankaew, K.; Kelletat, D.; Scheffers, A.; Scheffers, S.


    Where historical records are short and/or fragmentary, geological evidence is an important tool to reconstruct the recurrence rate of extreme wave events (tsunamis and/or storms). This is particularly true for those coastal zones around the Indian Ocean, where predecessors of similar magnitude as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) have not been reported by written sources. In this context, the sedimentary record of the Holocene coastal plain of Ban Bang Sak (Phang-nga province, Thailand) provides evidence of multiple prehistoric coastal flooding events in the form of allochthonous sand beds, which were radiocarbon dated to 700-500, 1350-1180, and younger than 2000 cal BP. The layers were assigned to high-energy events of marine origin, which could be either tsunamis or tropical storms, by means of granulometry, geochemistry, vertical structure, and macrofossil content. Although no landfall of a strong storm has occurred in the last 150 years of meteorological data recording, cyclones cannot be ruled out for the last centuries and millennia. However, discrimination between tsunami and storm origin was mainly based on the comparison of the palaeoevent beds with the local deposit of the IOT, which revealed similar characteristics in regard to spatial extend and sediment properties. Furthermore, the youngest palaeoevent correlates with contemporaneous deposits from Thailand and more distant coasts. Hence, we relate it to a basin wide tsunami which took place 700-500 years ago. For the sediments of older extreme events, deposited between 2000 and 1180 cal BP, we found no unambiguous counterparts at other sites; nevertheless, at least for now, they are treated as tsunami candidates.

  4. Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff


    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic

  5. Zero Magnitude Effect for the Productivity of Triggered Tsunami Sources

    Geist, E. L.


    The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is applied to tsunami events to explain previously observed temporal clustering of tsunami sources. Tsunami events are defined by National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) tsunami database. For the ETAS analysis, the earthquake magnitude associated with each tsunami event in the NGDC database is replaced by the primary magnitude listed in the Centennial catalog up until 1976 and in the Global CMT catalog from 1976 through 2010. Tsunamis with a submarine landslide or volcanic component are included if they are accompanied by an earthquake, which is most often the case. Tsunami size is used as a mark for determining a tsunami-generating event, according to a minimum completeness level. The tsunami catalog is estimated to be complete for tsunami sizes greater than 1 m since 1900 and greater than 0.1 m since 1960. Of the five parameters in the temporal ETAS model (Ogata, 1988), the parameter that scales the magnitude dependence in the productivity of triggered events is the one that is most different from ETAS parameters derived from similar earthquake catalogs. Maximum likelihood estimates of this magnitude effect parameter is essentially zero, within 95% confidence, for both the 0.1 m and 1.0 m tsunami completeness levels. To explain this result, parameter estimates are determined for the Global CMT catalog under three tsunamigenic conditions: (1) M≥7 and focal depth ≤50 km, (2) submarine location, and (3) dominant component of dip slip. Successive subcatalogs are formed from the Global CMT catalog according to each of these conditions. The high magnitude threshold for tsunamigenesis alone (subcatalog 1) does not explain the zero magnitude effect. The zero magnitude effect also does not appear to be caused the smaller number of tsunamigenic events analyzed in comparison to earthquake catalogs with a similar magnitude threshold. ETAS parameter estimates from the subcatalog (3) with all three tsunamigenic conditions

  6. Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

    Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Horrillo, Juan; Figlus, Jens


    Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.

  7. The Cape Mendocino tsunami

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Bernard, E. N.


    The Cape Mendocino earthquake of April 25, 1992, generated a tsunami recorded by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) sea level gauges in California, Oregon, and Hawaii. The accompanying figure shows the tsunami waveforms acquired at twelve of these stations. the table that follows identifies these stations and gives preliminary estimates of the tsunami travel time from the source region to selected West Coast stations. 

  8. Boulder Deposits on the Southern Spanish Atlantic Coast: Possible Evidence for the 1755 AD Lisbon Tsunami?

    Dieter Kelletat


    Full Text Available Field evidence of visible tsunami impacts in Europe is scarce. This research focused on an analysis of large littoral debris and accompanying geomorphic features and their rela- tionship to a tsunami event at Cabo de Trafalgar, located on the southern Spanish Atlantic coast. Relative dating of weathering features as well as minor bioconstructive forms in the littoral zone suggest the Lisbon tsunami of 1755 AD as the event responsible for the large deposits described. This tsunami had run up heights of more than 19 m and was generated at the Gorringe Bank, located 500 km west off the Cape. Tsunami deposits at Cabo de Tra- falgar are the first boulder deposits identified on the southern Spanish Atlantic coast and are located approximately 250 km southeast of the Algarve coast (Portugal, where other geo- morphic evidence for the Lisbon tsunami has been reported.

  9. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: Description of the event and estimation of length of the tsunami source region based on data from Indian tide gauge

    Suresh, I.; Neetu, S.; Shankar, D.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shetye, S.R.; Sundar, D.

    An earthquake with a moment magnitude Mw = 9.3 occurred at 3.307? N, 95.947? E (255 km south-southeast of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia) at 0059 UTC on 26 December 2004 [1] (Fig. 1). This earthquake, which ruptured 1600 km of India's eastern plate boundary... of the rupture and other geological processes involved [1]. Numerical simulation of tsunami propagation is critically dependent on the initial perturbation used to force the model. Thus the length of the tsunami source region remains a key bottleneck. From...

  10. Modeling the transport and accumulation floating debris generated by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami.

    Lebreton, Laurent C-M; Borrero, Jose C


    A global ocean circulation model is coupled to a particle-tracking model to simulate the transport of floating debris washed into the North Pacific Ocean by the Tohoku tsunami. A release scenario for the tsunami debris is based on coastal population and measured tsunami runup. Archived 2011/2012 hindcast current data is used to model the transport of debris since the tsunami, while data from 2008 to 2012 is used to investigate the distribution of debris on timescales up to 4years. The vast amount of debris pushed into ocean likely represents thousands of years worth of 'normal' litter flux from Japan's urbanized coastline. This is important since a significant fraction of the debris will be comprised of plastics, some of which will degrade into tiny particles and be consumed by marine organisms, thereby allowing adsorbed organic pollutants to enter our food supply in quantities much higher than present.

  11. On the moroccan tsunami catalogue

    F. Kaabouben


    Full Text Available A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.

  12. Status of Monte-Carlo Event Generators

    Hoeche, Stefan; /SLAC


    Recent progress on general-purpose Monte-Carlo event generators is reviewed with emphasis on the simulation of hard QCD processes and subsequent parton cascades. Describing full final states of high-energy particle collisions in contemporary experiments is an intricate task. Hundreds of particles are typically produced, and the reactions involve both large and small momentum transfer. The high-dimensional phase space makes an exact solution of the problem impossible. Instead, one typically resorts to regarding events as factorized into different steps, ordered descending in the mass scales or invariant momentum transfers which are involved. In this picture, a hard interaction, described through fixed-order perturbation theory, is followed by multiple Bremsstrahlung emissions off initial- and final-state and, finally, by the hadronization process, which binds QCD partons into color-neutral hadrons. Each of these steps can be treated independently, which is the basic concept inherent to general-purpose event generators. Their development is nowadays often focused on an improved description of radiative corrections to hard processes through perturbative QCD. In this context, the concept of jets is introduced, which allows to relate sprays of hadronic particles in detectors to the partons in perturbation theory. In this talk, we briefly review recent progress on perturbative QCD in event generation. The main focus lies on the general-purpose Monte-Carlo programs HERWIG, PYTHIA and SHERPA, which will be the workhorses for LHC phenomenology. A detailed description of the physics models included in these generators can be found in [8]. We also discuss matrix-element generators, which provide the parton-level input for general-purpose Monte Carlo.

  13. Real-time determination of the worst tsunami scenario based on Earthquake Early Warning

    Furuya, Takashi; Koshimura, Shunichi; Hino, Ryota; Ohta, Yusaku; Inoue, Takuya


    In recent years, real-time tsunami inundation forecasting has been developed with the advances of dense seismic monitoring, GPS Earth observation, offshore tsunami observation networks, and high-performance computing infrastructure (Koshimura et al., 2014). Several uncertainties are involved in tsunami inundation modeling and it is believed that tsunami generation model is one of the great uncertain sources. Uncertain tsunami source model has risk to underestimate tsunami height, extent of inundation zone, and damage. Tsunami source inversion using observed seismic, geodetic and tsunami data is the most effective to avoid underestimation of tsunami, but needs to expect more time to acquire the observed data and this limitation makes difficult to terminate real-time tsunami inundation forecasting within sufficient time. Not waiting for the precise tsunami observation information, but from disaster management point of view, we aim to determine the worst tsunami source scenario, for the use of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and mapping, using the seismic information of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) that can be obtained immediately after the event triggered. After an earthquake occurs, JMA's EEW estimates magnitude and hypocenter. With the constraints of earthquake magnitude, hypocenter and scaling law, we determine possible multi tsunami source scenarios and start searching the worst one by the superposition of pre-computed tsunami Green's functions, i.e. time series of tsunami height at offshore points corresponding to 2-dimensional Gaussian unit source, e.g. Tsushima et al., 2014. Scenario analysis of our method consists of following 2 steps. (1) Searching the worst scenario range by calculating 90 scenarios with various strike and fault-position. From maximum tsunami height of 90 scenarios, we determine a narrower strike range which causes high tsunami height in the area of concern. (2) Calculating 900 scenarios that have different strike, dip, length

  14. Tsunami Preparedness in Oregon (video)

    Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine


    Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness in Oregon distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of this region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI).

  15. Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

    Geist, Eric L.


    Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

  16. Luminescence Dating of Tsunami sediments : Residual Signal Levels in Sediments from the 26th December 2004 Indian Ocean Event in Thailand.

    Sanderson, D. C.; Bishop, P.; Hansom, J.; Curry, G.; Chaimanee, N.


    Luminescence dating has been applied in the past to several tsunami deposits, notably from Northern Australia, the Scilly Isles, Scotland and Chile. Providing initial signals levels are close to zero, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating is a promising method for dating palaeo-tsunami sediments, and providing an indication of past frequencies of occurrence of at least large scale events. The time resolution available, however, is critically dependent on initial signal levels in zero age deposits. With that in mind we have undertaken a study of sediments deposited in Phang Nga province and Phuket in Thailand by the 26th December 2004 tsunami. Approximately 250 sediment samples were collected from a diverse range of settings early in 2005 and prior to monsoonal disturbance. A newly developed portable OSL reader was used to assist fieldwork by making real- time measurements during the fieldwork period of more than 100 samples. This proved invaluable in confirming that all tsunami deposited material retained measureable luminescence signals, and guiding sampling towards an examination of the underlying factors that influence residual levels. Samples were collected from pre-tsunami ground surfaces, from basal and superficial tsunami deposits, from stratified sediments showing multiple sequences of coarse and fine sediments associated with different parts of the wavetrain, from a series of open and shaded back-beach locations, and from a transect reaching inland for approximately 1 km. Laboratory studies have now been conducted to extend initial screening measurements to all samples, and to perform calibrated analyses of mineral separates from selected samples. The work has confirmed that non-zero initial signal levels are present in all samples. The magnitude of such signals ranges over 4 orders of magnitude apparently controlled by the inherited age of the source sediment being entrained in the tsunami wave prior to redeposition. The lowest residual signal

  17. Tsunami waves generated by submarine landslides of variable volume: analytical solutions for a basin of variable depth

    I. Didenkulova


    Full Text Available Tsunami wave generation by submarine landslides of a variable volume in a basin of variable depth is studied within the shallow-water theory. The problem of landslide induced tsunami wave generation and propagation is studied analytically for two specific convex bottom profiles (h ~ x4/3 and h ~ x4. In these cases the basic equations can be reduced to the constant-coefficient wave equation with the forcing determined by the landslide motion. For certain conditions on the landslide characteristics (speed and volume per unit cross-section the wave field can be described explicitly. It is represented by one forced wave propagating with the speed of the landslide and following its offshore direction, and two free waves propagating in opposite directions with the wave celerity. For the case of a near-resonant motion of the landslide along the power bottom profile h ~ xγ the dynamics of the waves propagating offshore is studied using the asymptotic approach. If the landslide is moving in the fully resonant regime the explicit formula for the amplitude of the wave can be derived. It is demonstrated that generally tsunami wave amplitude varies non-monotonically with distance.

  18. Research Methods in Child Disaster Studies: A Review of Studies Generated by the September 11, 2001, Terrorist Attacks; the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami; and Hurricane Katrina

    Weems, Carl F.; Scott, Brandon G.; Nitiéma, Pascal; Noffsinger, Mary A.; Pfefferbaum, Rose L.; Varma, Vandana; Chakraburtty, Amarsha


    Background A comprehensive review of the design principles and methodological approaches that have been used to make inferences from the research on disasters in children is needed. Objective To identify the methodological approaches used to study children’s reactions to three recent major disasters—the September 11, 2001, attacks; the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami; and Hurricane Katrina. Methods This review was guided by a systematic literature search. Results A total of 165 unduplicated empirical reports were generated by the search and examined for this review. This included 83 references on September 11, 29 on the 2004 Tsunami, and 53 on Hurricane Katrina. Conclusions A diversity of methods has been brought to bear in understanding children’s reactions to disasters. While cross-sectional studies predominate, pre-event data for some investigations emerged from archival data and data from studies examining non-disaster topics. The nature and extent of the influence of risk and protective variables beyond disaster exposure are not fully understood due, in part, to limitations in the study designs used in the extant research. Advancing an understanding of the roles of exposure and various individual, family, and social factors depends upon the extent to which measures and assessment techniques are valid and reliable, as well as on data sources and data collection designs. Comprehensive assessments that extend beyond questionnaires and checklists to include interviews and cognitive and biological measures to elucidate the negative and positive effects of disasters on children also may improve the knowledge base. PMID:24443635

  19. Performance of coastal sea-defense infrastructure at El Jadida (Morocco against tsunami threat: lessons learned from the Japanese 11 March 2011 tsunami

    R. Omira


    Full Text Available This paper seeks to investigate the effectiveness of sea-defense structures in preventing/reducing the tsunami overtopping as well as evaluating the resulting tsunami impact at El Jadida, Morocco. Different tsunami wave conditions are generated by considering various earthquake scenarios of magnitudes ranging from Mw = 8.0 to Mw = 8.6. These scenarios represent the main active earthquake faults in the SW Iberia margin and are consistent with two past events that generated tsunamis along the Atlantic coast of Morocco. The behaviour of incident tsunami waves when interacting with coastal infrastructures is analysed on the basis of numerical simulations of near-shore tsunami waves' propagation. Tsunami impact at the affected site is assessed through computing inundation and current velocity using a high-resolution digital terrain model that incorporates bathymetric, topographic and coastal structures data. Results, in terms of near-shore tsunami propagation snapshots, waves' interaction with coastal barriers, and spatial distributions of flow depths and speeds, are presented and discussed in light of what was observed during the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami. Predicted results show different levels of impact that different tsunami wave conditions could generate in the region. Existing coastal barriers around the El Jadida harbour succeeded in reflecting relatively small waves generated by some scenarios, but failed in preventing the overtopping caused by waves from others. Considering the scenario highly impacting the El Jadida coast, significant inundations are computed at the sandy beach and unprotected areas. The modelled dramatic tsunami impact in the region shows the need for additional tsunami standards not only for sea-defense structures but also for the coastal dwellings and houses to provide potential in-place evacuation.

  20. Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

    Koh, Hock Lye; Teh, Su Yean; Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che


    The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

  1. Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

    Koh, Hock Lye, E-mail: [Office of Deputy Vice Chancellor for Research and Post Graduate Studies, UCSI University, Jalan Menara Gading, 56000 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia); Teh, Su Yean, E-mail: [School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Pulau Pinang (Malaysia); Abas, Mohd Rosaidi Che [Malaysian Meteorological Department, MOSTI, Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)


    The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

  2. Combined effects of tectonic and landslide-generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 1964 earthquake

    Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Haeussler, P.J.; Hansen, R.


    We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the Mw 9.2 1964 mega thrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in land sliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5 min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211 million m3 (Haeussler et al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269-278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30 min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local land slide generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131-152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559-572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For

  3. Tsunami Characteristics Along the Peru-Chile Trench: Analysis of the 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique and the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule Tsunamis in the Near-field

    Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F.


    Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru-Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru-Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru-Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru-Chile Trench.

  4. Evaluation of Ancient and Future Submarine Landslides Along the Central California Coast and Their Potential to Generate Tsunamis

    Greene, H. G.; Paull, C. K.; Ward, S.; Ussler, W.; Maher, N. M.


    Submarine landslides have been located along the central California continental margin with the use of multibeam bathymetric and sub-bottom profiling data. These features are primarily concentrated on the lower continental slope and in submarine canyons. Recent evaluation of these landslides indicates that they are of various ages and types and formed in different ways. For example, the extensive slope failure morphology on the lower Point Sur slope range from subtle to very sharp geomorphic shapes that suggest these landslides have occurred over a long period of time. These landslides are large features (up to 215 km2) and form primarily from bottom-up processes in a retrogressive fashion. In contrast, some of the landslide scars located on flanks of submarine canyons appear youthful indicating recent activity. Several landslide scars and blocks are also located in the headward parts of Ascension and Monterey canyons. If these scars were generated by catastrophic slope failure, they are of the size (greater than 2 km2) and depth (lie at water depths less than 400 m) to have produced a tsunamis. Based on the presence of possible incipient crown scarps, we have also identified areas within the Ascension-Monterey submarine canyons system where wall failures may occur in the future. We are in the process of using computer simulations to assess the size and extent of tsunamis that these landslides might induce. On the horizon, we hope to develop a full probabilistic hazard estimate for landslide tsunamis run-up around Monterey Bay.

  5. The meteorite impact-induced tsunami hazard.

    Wünnemann, K; Weiss, R


    When a cosmic object strikes the Earth, it most probably falls into an ocean. Depending on the impact energy and the depth of the ocean, a large amount of water is displaced, forming a temporary crater in the water column. Large tsunami-like waves originate from the collapse of the cavity in the water and the ejecta splash. Because of the far-reaching destructive consequences of such waves, an oceanic impact has been suggested to be more severe than a similar-sized impact on land; in other words, oceanic impacts may punch over their weight. This review paper summarizes the process of impact-induced wave generation and subsequent propagation, whether the wave characteristic differs from tsunamis generated by other classical mechanisms, and what methods have been applied to quantify the consequences of an oceanic impact. Finally, the impact-induced tsunami hazard will be evaluated by means of the Eltanin impact event.

  6. A potential submarine landslide tsunami in South China Sea

    Huang, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Switzer, A. D.


    Submarine earthquakes and submarine landslides are two main sources of tsunamis. Tsunami hazard modeling in the South China Sea has been primarily concerned with the potential large submarine earthquakes in the Manila trench. In contrast, evaluating the regional risk posed by tsunamis generated from submarine landslide is a new endeavor. At offshore south central Vietnam, bathymetric and seismic surveys show evidence of potentially tsunamigenic submarine landslides although their ages remain uncertain. We model two hypothetical submarine landslide events at a potential site on the heavily sediment laden, seismically active, steep continental slope offshore southeast Vietnam. Water level rises along the coast of Vietnam are presented for the potential scenarios, which indicate that the southeast coastal areas of Vietnam are at considerable risk of tsunami generated offshore submarine landslides. Key references: Kusnowidjaja Megawati, Felicia Shaw, Kerry Sieh, Zhenhua Huang, Tso-Ren Wu, Y. Lin, Soon Keat Tan and Tso-Chien Pan.(2009). Tsunami hazard from the subduction megathrust of the South China Sea, Part I, Source characterization and the resulting tsunami, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Vol. 36(1), pp. 13-20. Enet, F., Grilli, S.T. and Watts, P. (2003). Laboratory experiments for tsunami generated by underwater landslides: comparison with numerical modeling, In: Proceedings of 13th International Conference on Offshore and Polar Engineering, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, pp. 372-379.


    Garry Rogers


    Full Text Available New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or pre- computed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite.Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic.This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps. As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

  8. NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

    Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim


    New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

  9. Tsunamis in Cuba?; Tsunamis en Cuba?

    Cotilla Rodriguez, M. O.


    Cuba as neo tectonics structure in the southern of the North American plate had three tsunamis. One of them [local] occurred in the Central-Northern region [1931.10.01, Nortecubana fault], the other was a tele tsunami [1755.11.01, in the SW of the Iberian Peninsula] that hit the Bay of Santiago de Cuba, and the third took place at 1867.11.18, by the regional source of Virgin Islands, which produced waves in the Eastern Cuban region. This tsunami originated to the NE of Puerto Rico in 1918.10.11, with another earthquake of equal magnitude and at similar coordinates, produced a tsunami that did not affect Cuba. Information on the influence of regional tsunami in 1946.08.08 of the NE of the Dominican Republic [Matanzas] in Northwestern Cuba [beaches Guanabo-Baracoa] is contrary to expectations with the waves propagation. The local event of 1939.08.15 attributed to Central- Northern Cuba [Cayo Frances with M = 8.1] does not correspond at all with the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in this region and the potential of the Nortecubana fault. Tsunamis attributed to events such as 1766.06.11 and 1932.02.03 in the Santiago de Cuba Bay are not reflected in the original documents from experts and eyewitnesses. Tsunamis from Jamaica have not affected the coasts of Cuba, despite its proximity. There is no influence in Cuba of tsunamigenic sources of the southern and western parts of the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico. Set out the doubts as to the influence of tsunamis from Haiti and Dominican Republic at Guantanamo Bay which is closer to and on the same latitude, and spatial orientation than the counterpart of Santiago de Cuba, that had impact. The number of fatalities by authors in the Caribbean is different and contradictory. (Author) 76 refs.

  10. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    J. Wächter


    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  11. Numerical modeling of landslide generated tsunamis in the bay of Biscay

    Frere, Antoine; Hebert, Helene


    Tsunami hazard in metropolitan France is poorly known. The TANDEM (Tsunamis in northern AtlaNtic : Definition of Effects by Modeling) project is a French initiative to draw lessons from the 2011 catastrophic tsunami in Japan on French coastlines, in order to provide guidance for risk assessment on the nuclear facilities in the area. This project is aimed at adapting numerical methods of tsunami hazard assessment against the outstanding observation database of the 2011 tsunami, in order to apply these validated methods to the definition of the tsunami hazard for the French Atlantic and Channel coastlines. Landslide induced tsunami hazard in the Bay of Biscay France (NE Atlantic ocean) is poorly known. Investigation on the continental slope of the Bay show the existence of numerous landslide scars, but no real risk assessment studies were made to determine the potential tsunami hazard from those landslide. This work focuses on tsunami induced by landslides, and aims to assess the threat using numerical simulation. We assumes that the landslide has a fluid-like behaviour and applies shallow water/thin layer approximations to both aspect. The similarity of the resulting equations of momentum and mass conservation enables to use a single Godunov-like numerical scheme for both parts of the model. The model results are then carried into a multigrid dispersive model in order to get better estimation of the water height near the coast. This second model uses the Boussinesq equations for larger scale grids and the Saint-Venant equations near the coast, and is resolved using a Crank-Nicholson scheme. The first study zone is located in the Cap Breton canyon region in the south of the Bay. Investigation is carried out to identify scenarios that could have caused paleo-tsunamis, with a special interest on a large scar off the canyon(~70 km3). 4 scenarios of varying volumes (from 17 to 70 km3) and depth are carried into the model and the result show maximum water heights of up to

  12. Effect of tides and source location on nearshore tsunami-induced currents

    Ayca, Aykut; Lynett, Patrick J.


    Here we present the results of a numerical modeling study that investigates how event-maximum tsunami-induced currents vary due to the dynamic effects of tides and wave directivity. First, analyses of tide-tsunami interaction are presented in three harbors by coupling the tsunami with the tide, and allowing the initial tsunami wave to arrive at various tidal phases. We find that tsunami-tide interaction can change the event-maximum current speed experienced in a harbor by up to 25% for the events and harbors studied, and we note that this effect is highly site-specific. Second, to evaluate the effect of wave directionality on event-maximum currents, earthquakes sources were placed throughout the Pacific, with magnitudes tuned to create the same maximum near-coast amplitude at the harbor of study. Our analysis also shows that, for the harbor and sources examined, the effect of offshore directionality and tsunami frequency content has a weak effect on the event-maximum currents experienced in the harbor. The more important dependency of event-maximum currents is the near-harbor amplitude of the wave, indicating that event-maximum currents in a harbor from a tsunami generated by a large far-field earthquake may be reasonably well predicted with only information about the predicted local maximum tsunami amplitude. This study was motivated by the hope of constructing a basis for understanding the dynamic effects of tides and wave directivity on current-based tsunami hazards in a coastal zone. The consideration of these aspects is crucial and yet challenging in the modeling of tsunami currents.

  13. Modern Particle Physics Event Generation with WHIZARD

    Reuter, J; Nejad, B Chokoufe; Kilian, W; Ohl, T; Sekulla, M; Weiss, C


    We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis will be given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development will be discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.

  14. Modern particle physics event generation with WHIZARD

    Reuter, J.; Bach, F.; Chokoufe, B. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Kilian, W.; Sekulla, M. [Siegen Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics; Ohl, T. [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Weiss, C. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Siegen Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Physics


    We describe the multi-purpose Monte-Carlo event generator WHIZARD for the simulation of high-energy particle physics experiments. Besides the presentation of the general features of the program like SM physics, BSM physics, and QCD effects, special emphasis is given to the support of the most accurate simulation of the collider environments at hadron colliders and especially at future linear lepton colliders. On the more technical side, the very recent code refactoring towards a completely object-oriented software package to improve maintainability, flexibility and code development are discussed. Finally, we present ongoing work and future plans regarding higher-order corrections, more general model support including the setup to search for new physics in vector boson scattering at the LHC, as well as several lines of performance improvements.

  15. Study of resonant modes of the harbour of Siracusa, Italy, and of the effects of breakwaters in case of a tsunami event.

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Tinti, Stefano


    events. In this last case our attention was also focused on quantifying the role of the existing breakwaters in mitigating the incoming tsunami.

  16. Evidence for a tsunami generated by the 1762 Great Arakan earthquake, Southeastern Bangladesh

    Gurung, D.; McHugh, C. M.; Mondal, D. R.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.; Bastas-Hernandez, A.; Akhter, S. H.; Mustaque, S.; Goodbred, S. L., Jr.


    The devastating 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami brought to the world's attention the possibility of large megathrust ruptures occurring along the heavily populated coast of Bangladesh. The Sunda-Andaman subduction arc continues into Bangladesh where oblique convergence of the Indian plate with the Burma segment of the arc was measured at GPS rates of 14 mm/yr. A long section of the megathurst ruptured during the 1762 Great Arakan earthquake along the Myanmar coast. A 1762 tsunami was reported from historic accounts and predicted from modelling, but geologic evidence for it was not previously reported. St Martin's Island and the Teknaf peninsula in SE Bangladesh are expressions of anticlines in the outer part of the accretionary prism of the Arakan subduction boundary. Our lithology, biostratigraphy and C-14 ages in this region provide evidence for a possible tsunami associated with the 1762 earthquake and validate the continuity of the rupture zone for as much as 700 km, from the Myanmar coast, Bay of Bengal shelf to the Sitakund anticline inland. In St. Martin's, ≈70 km north of the shelf break, U-Th ages from ~2 m uplifted dead corals provide evidence for the 1762 rupture. The associated tsunami was dated from benthic foraminifers and marine molluscs obtained from a shell bed in a trench, and from the top of marine terraces possibly uplifted during 1762 or prior earthquakes. In Teknaf a chaotic bed containing benthic foraminifers, marine shells and cobble size rocks, extends for 100's of meters on top of the 2 m uplifted terrace. The marine molluscs were dated at 1695-1791 AD. The large ≈2m uplift found in the region is likely to be deformation associated with the 1762 rupture and could also be partly related to anelastic growth of the accretion wedge and anticlines. It is likely now slowly subsiding due to continuing elastic loading of the megathrust. To produce that large coastal, presumably coseismic, uplift, the megathrust rupture must have reached at

  17. Modelling landslide-generated tsunami: from landslide propagation to downstream flood in dam context

    Franz, Martin; Podladchikov, Yury; Humair, Florian; Matasci, Battista; Jaboyedoff, Michel


    Alpine regions have a high density of dammed lakes, either natural or anthropogenic. Those are frequently surrounded by steep slopes and thus, are potentially affected by mass wasting processes. The penetration of landsliding material in the water body may lead to impulse waves that could overtop the dam and, in the worst case scenario, breach or break the latter. The possible resulting outburst flood is a serious threat for populated places, commonly concentrated downstream in the valleys. In order to assess the risk resulting from the succession of all phenomenon, a numerical model able to handle all of them is required. Although specific models of flooding simulation or wave propagation are efficient, there is currently no fully achieved model capable to integrate all the above-mentioned processes at the same time. In order to address this, we propose a new model capable to handle these difficult combinations and which is suitable for risk assessment in dam contexts. Our model is based on both the shallow water equations and viscous flow equations. The first ones are stabilised by the Lax-Friedrichs scheme and compute the wave propagation and the downstream flow, i.e. the wet state. The viscous flow equations are used for the dry state and to propagate the landslide body. The transition from one state to the other is ruled by a threshold based on the Reynolds number. First, in order to test the capacity of our model to endure critical situations, we conducted numerical sandbox tests such as Riemann problems, dam break, and landslide tsunami-related ones in 2 dimensions. In a second time, the model is applied on a real case study: the Oeschinen Lake (Switzerland). This naturally dammed lake is specifically selected since it is potentially affected by all above-mentioned phenomenon, including landsliding, wave generation, wave propagation in the water body and on the shore as well as the downstream flooding. Results show that the municipality of Kandersteg

  18. Near-source observations and modeling of the Kuril Islands tsunamis of 15 November 2006 and 13 January 2007

    A. B. Rabinovich


    Full Text Available Two major earthquakes near the Central Kuril Islands (Mw=8.3 on 15 November 2006 and Mw=8.1 on 13 January 2007 generated trans-oceanic tsunamis recorded over the entire Pacific Ocean. The strongest oscillations, exceeding several meters, occurred near the source region of the Kuril Islands. Tide gauge records for both tsunamis have been thoroughly examined and numerical models of the events have been constructed. The models of the 2006 and 2007 events include two important advancements in the simulation of seismically generated tsunamis: (a the use of the finite failure source models by Ji (2006, 2007 which provide more detailed information than conventional models on spatial displacements in the source areas and which avoid uncertainties in source extent; and (b the use of the three-dimensional Laplace equation to reconstruct the initial tsunami sea surface elevation (avoiding the usual shallow-water approximation. The close agreement of our simulated results with the observed tsunami waveforms at the open-ocean DART stations support the validity of this approach. Observational and model findings reveal that energy fluxes of the tsunami waves from the source areas were mainly directed southeastward toward the Hawaiian Islands, with relatively little energy propagation into the Sea of Okhotsk. A marked feature of both tsunamis was their high-frequency content, with typical wave periods ranging from 2–3 to 15–20 min. Despite certain similarities, the two tsunamis were essentially different and had opposite polarity: the leading wave of the November 2006 trans-oceanic tsunami was positive, while that for the January 2007 trans-oceanic tsunami was negative. Numerical modeling of both tsunamis indicates that, due to differences in their seismic source properties, the 2006 tsunami was more wide-spread but less focused than the 2007 tsunami.

  19. The 1979 Submarine Landslide-Generated Tsunami in Mururoa, French Polynesia

    Poupardin, Adrien; Heinrich, Philippe; Frère, Antoine; Imbert, David; Hébert, Hélène; Flouzat, Mireille


    This paper aims at best describing the submarine landslide which induced partial submersion of the atolls of Mururoa and Fangataufa in 1979. More precisely, waves propagated along the south coast of Mururoa atoll and penetrated into its lagoon some minutes after the landslide triggering (t = 0 s), whereas a train of eight water waves reached the runway located on the north-east coast of Fangataufa (40 km south of Mururoa) between t = 7 min 30 s and t = 20 min. A numerical model based on shallow water equations is used to simulate the landslide as well as the associated tsunami. Saint-Venant equations are used to propagate the tsunami in coastal areas, whereas the offshore propagation is simulated by solving weakly nonlinear Boussinesq equations. Low- and high-resolution nested grids are used to simulate the tsunami propagation in deep sea and in shallow waters, respectively. Several scenarios have been tested to reproduce the observed water and run-up heights in the near and far fields. The best scenarios correspond to a landslide with a volume in the range (75-90 Mm3) (for a basal friction angle of 35°) and with a basal friction angle in the range (30°-40°) (for a volume of 80 Mm3). These results have been completed by a parametric study on the slide parameters.

  20. The Boxing Day Tsunami: Could the Disaster have been Anticipated?

    Cummins, P. R.; Burbdige, D.


    The occurrence of the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the accompanying "Boxing Day" Tsunami, which killed over 280,00, has been described as one of the most lethal natural disasters in human history. Many lives could have been saved had a tsunami warning system, similar to that which exists for the Pacific Ocean, been in operation for the Indian Ocean. The former exists because great subduction zone earthquakes have generated destructive, Pacific-wide tsunami in the Pacific Ocean with some frequency. Prior to 26 December, 2004, all of the world's earthquakes with magnitude > 9 were widely thought to have occurred in the Pacific Ocean, where they caused destructive tsunami. Could the occurrence of similar earthquakes and tsunami in the Indian Ocean been predicted prior to the 2004 Box Day Tragedy? This presentation will argue that the answer is "Yes". Almost without exception (the exception being the 1952 Kamchatka earthquake) the massive subduction zone earthquakes and tsunami of the Pacific Ocean have been associated with the subduction of relatively young ocean lithosphere (Boxing day event, the effects in the Bay of Bengal would not have been as severe. Thus, it seems to this author that the Boxing Day event could and should have been anticipated. This presentation will further consider why it was not, and what steps can be taken to anticipate and mitigate the effects of future events that may occur in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere.

  1. Tsunami Preparedness

    ... hour away. [Recommendation: Create unique infographic] Before a Tsunami Prepare in Advance If you do nothing else: ... your safety to save your belongings. During a Tsunami If You Feel a Strong Coastal Earthquake • Drop, ...

  2. Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

    Gailler, Audrey; Schindelé, F.; Hébert, H.


    In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude >8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.

  3. Impact of Hellenic Arc Tsunamis on Corsica (France)

    Gailler, Audrey; Schindelé, F.; Hébert, H.


    In the historical period, the Eastern Mediterranean has been devastated by several tsunamis, the two most damaging were those of AD 365 and AD 1303, generated by great earthquakes of magnitude >8 at the Hellenic plate boundary. Recently, events of 6-7 magnitude have occurred in this region. As the French tsunami warning center has to ensure the warning for the French coastlines, the question has raised the possibility for a major tsunami triggered along the Hellenic arc to impact the French coasts. The focus is on the Corsica coasts especially, to estimate what would be the expected wave heights, and from which threshold of magnitude it would be necessary to put the population under cover. This study shows that a magnitude 8.0 earthquake nucleated along the Hellenic arc could induce in some cases a tsunami that would be observed along the Corsica coasts, and for events of 8.5 magnitude amplitudes exceeding 50 cm can be expected, which would be dangerous in harbors and beach areas especially. The main contribution of these results is the establishment of specific thresholds of magnitude for the tsunami warning along the French coasts, 7.8 for the advisory level (coastal marine threat with harbors and beaches evacuation), and 8.3 for the watch level (inland inundation threat) for tsunamis generated along the Hellenic arc.

  4. Improving the coastal record of tsunamis in the ESI-07 scale: Tsunami Environmental Effects Scale (TEE-16 scale)

    Lario, J.; Bardaji, T.; Silva, P.G.; Zazo, C.; Goy, J.L.


    This paper discusses possibilities to improve the Environmental Seismic Intensity Scale (ESI-07 scale), a scale based on the effects of earthquakes in the environment. This scale comprises twelve intensity degrees and considers primary and secondary effects, one of them the occurrence of tsunamis. Terminology and physical tsunami parameters corresponding to different intensity levels are often misleading and confusing. The present work proposes: i) a revised and updated catalogue of environmental and geological effects of tsunamis, gathering all the available information on Tsunami Environmental Effects (TEEs) produced by recent earthquake-tsunamis; ii) a specific intensity scale (TEE-16) for the effects of tsunamis in the natural environment at coastal areas. The proposed scale could be used in future tsunami events and, in historic and paleo-tsunami studies. The new TEE- 16 scale incorporates the size specific parameters already considered in the ESI-07 scale, such as wave height, run-up and inland extension of inundation, and a comprehensive and more accurate terminology that covers all the different intensity levels identifiable in the geological record (intensities VI-XII). The TEE-16 scale integrates the description and quantification of the potential sedimentary and erosional features (beach scours, transported boulders and classical tsunamites) derived from different tsunami events at diverse coastal environments (e.g. beaches, estuaries, rocky cliffs,). This new approach represents an innovative advance in relation to the tsunami descriptions provided by the ESI-07 scale, and allows the full application of the proposed scale in paleoseismological studies. The analysis of the revised and updated tsunami environmental damage suggests that local intensities recorded in coastal areas do not correlate well with the TEE-16 intensity (normally higher), but shows a good correlation with the earthquake magnitude (Mw). Tsunamis generated by earthquakes can then be

  5. Tsunami waveform inversion by adjoint methods

    Pires, Carlos; Miranda, Pedro M. A.


    An adjoint method for tsunami waveform inversion is proposed, as an alternative to the technique based on Green's functions of the linear long wave model. The method has the advantage of being able to use the nonlinear shallow water equations, or other appropriate equation sets, and to optimize an initial state given as a linear or nonlinear function of any set of free parameters. This last facility is used to perform explicit optimization of the focal fault parameters, characterizing the initial sea surface displacement of tsunamigenic earthquakes. The proposed methodology is validated with experiments using synthetic data, showing the possibility of recovering all relevant details of a tsunami source from tide gauge observations, providing that the adjoint method is constrained in an appropriate manner. It is found, as in other methods, that the inversion skill of tsunami sources increases with the azimuthal and temporal coverage of assimilated tide gauge stations; furthermore, it is shown that the eigenvalue analysis of the Hessian matrix of the cost function provides a consistent and useful methodology to choose the subset of independent parameters that can be inverted with a given dataset of observations and to evaluate the error of the inversion process. The method is also applied to real tide gauge series, from the tsunami of the February 28, 1969, Gorringe Bank earthquake, suggesting some reasonable changes to the assumed focal parameters of that event. It is suggested that the method proposed may be able to deal with transient tsunami sources such as those generated by submarine landslides.

  6. Automated Testing with Targeted Event Sequence Generation

    Jensen, Casper Svenning; Prasad, Mukul R.; Møller, Anders


    of the individual event handlers of the application. The second phase builds event sequences backward from the target, using the summaries together with a UI model of the application. Our experiments on a collection of open source Android applications show that this technique can successfully produce event...

  7. Scientific Animations for Tsunami Hazard Mitigation: The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's YouTube Channel

    Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Shiro, B.; Ward, B.


    tsunami warning operations, such as those about earthquake magnitudes, how earthquakes are located, where and how often earthquakes occur, and fault rupture length. The second group uses the PTWC-developed tsunami forecast model, RIFT (Wang et al., 2012), to show how various historic tsunamis propagated through the world's oceans. These animations illustrate important concepts about tsunami behavior such as their speed, how they bend around and bounce off of seafloor features, how their wave heights vary from place to place and in time, and how their behavior is strongly influenced by the type of earthquake that generated them. PTWC's YouTube channel also includes an animation that simulates both seismic and tsunami phenomena together as they occurred for the 2011 Japan tsunami including actual sea-level measurements and proper timing for tsunami alert status, thus serving as a video 'time line' for that event and showing the time scales involved in tsunami warning operations. Finally, PTWC's scientists can use their YouTube channel to communicate with their colleagues in the research community by supplementing their peer-reviewed papers with video 'figures' (e.g., Wang et al., 2012).

  8. Historic and ancient tsunamis uncovered on the Jalisco-Colima Pacific coast, the Mexican subduction zone

    Ramírez-Herrera, María Teresa; Bógalo, María Felicidad; Černý, Jan; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Corona, Néstor; Machain, María Luisa; Edwards, Arturo Carranza; Sosa, Susana


    Research on extreme wave events such as tsunamis using the geological record in areas of infrequent and or small magnitude earthquakes can aid in extending the long-term history and recurrence intervals of large events. This information is valuable for risk management and community preparedness in coastal areas. Here we investigate tsunami deposits on the Jalisco coast of Mexico that overlies the subducting Rivera Plate under the North American plate, an area due for a large thrust earthquake and potential tsunami. Here, we apply a full battery of rock-magnetic analyses that also include a detailed AMS study and other typically applied proxies in tsunami deposits research. We present evidence to demonstrate that anomalous sand units with sharp basal contacts at La Manzanilla, Tenacatita Bay, and El Tecuán shore sites on the Jalisco coast may be the products of tsunamis generated by known historical (Ms 8.2 earthquake of 3 June 1932) and other earlier tsunamigenic earthquakes. A sandy unit with a sharp basal contact, flame structures at the base, rip-up clasts at La Manzanilla, and four sand units with sharp basal contact overlying buried soils at El Tecuán, together with other proxies, such as magnetic properties and others, suggest tsunami deposits. 210Pb dating of sediments slightly above the upper sand layer indicate an age A.D. 1935 ± 11 at El Tecuán. Historical accounts of tsunami inundation at both sites provide further evidence that this is most probably the result of the 3 June 1932 tsunami. Hence this study may provide the first evidence of a tsunami triggered by this earthquake and also of three probable predecessors. Further evidence of at least three earlier tsunamis that occurred since the fifteenth century is also evident in the stratigraphy. These events may correspond to events listed in historical archives, namely the 1563, 1816, and/or the 1818 events.

  9. Inversion of tsunami waveforms and tsunami warning

    An, Chao

    Ever since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the technique of inversion of tsunami data and the importance of tsunami warning have drawn the attention of many researchers. However, since tsunamis are rare and extreme events, developed inverse techniques lack validation, and open questions rise when they are applied to a real event. In this study, several of those open questions are investigated, i.e., the wave dispersion, bathymetry grid size and subfault division. First, tsunami records from three large tsunami events -- 2010 Maule, 2011 Tohoku and 2012 Haida Gwaii -- are analyzed to extract the main characteristics of the leading tsunami waves. Using the tool of wavelet transforming, the instant wave period can be obtained and thus the dispersive parameter mu2 can be calculated. mu2 is found to be smaller than 0.02 for all records, indicating that the wave dispersion is minor for the propagation of tsunami leading waves. Second, inversions of tsunami data are carried out for three tsunami events -- 2011 Tohoku, 2012 Haida Gwaii and 2014 Iquique. By varying the subfault size and the bathymetry grid size in the inversions, general rules are established for choosing those two parameters. It is found that the choice of bathymetry grid size depends on various parameters, such as the subfault size and the depth of subfaults. The global bathymetry data GEBCO with spatial resolution of 30 arcsec is generally good if the subfault size is larger than 40 km x 40 km; otherwise, bathymetry data with finer resolution is desirable. Detailed instructions of choosing the bathymetry size can be found in Chapter 2. By contrast, the choice of subfault size has much more freedom; our study shows that the subfault size can be very large without significant influence on the predicted tsunami waves. For earthquakes with magnitude of 8.0 ˜ 9.0, the subfault size can be 60 km ˜ 100 km. In our study, the maximum subfault size results in 9 ˜ 16 subfault patches on the ruptured fault surface

  10. Hydro-acoustic and tsunami waves generated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake: Modeling and in situ measurements

    Abdolali, Ali; Cecioni, Claudia; Bellotti, Giorgio; Kirby, James T.


    Detection of low-frequency hydro-acoustic waves as precursor components of destructive tsunamis can enhance the promptness and the accuracy of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). We reconstruct the hydro-acoustic wave field generated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamigenic earthquake using a 2-D horizontal numerical model based on the integration over the depth of the compressible fluid wave equation and considering a mild sloped rigid seabed. Spectral analysis of the wave field obtained at different water depths and distances from the source revealed the frequency range of low-frequency elastic oscillations of sea water. The resulting 2-D numerical model gave us the opportunity to study the hydro-acoustic wave propagation in a large-scale domain with available computers and to support the idea of deep-sea observatory and data interpretation. The model provides satisfactory results, compared with in situ measurements, in the reproduction of the long-gravitational waves. Differences between numerical results and field data are probably due to the lack of exact knowledge of sea bottom motion and to the rigid seabed approximation, indicating the need for further study of poro-elastic bottom effects.

  11. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

    Hoechner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Zamora, Natalia


    Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

  12. Test of the microtextural analysis of quartz grains of tsunami and non-tsunami deposits in Tirúa (Chile) - an unsuitable method for a valid tsunami identification

    Bellanova, P.; Bahlburg, H.; Nentwig, V.


    The tsunami caused by the 2010 Maule earthquake (MW 8.8) significantly affected the village of Tirúa (Central Chile). In order to estimate the hazard potential of tsunami events it is essential to reliably identify and differentiate tsunami deposits from deposits of other high-energy events like storms. Recently, the microtextural analysis of quartz grain surfaces was introduced as a method to differentiate between tsunami and other deposits. We tested the microtextural analysis method for its capability to identify tsunami deposits using paleotsunami intercalations from a bank profile of the Tirúa river. A total of 815 quartz grains of 4 river bank samples (2 tsunamigenic, 2 non-tsunamigenic) and of 3 reference samples from nearby beach, dune and river were analyzed. In order to generate a valid statistical basis even within individual grain size fractions a large number of grains was studied. Another reason was to compensate the error of the operator's subjectivity during random picking and microtexture observation. Grain surfaces were analyzed using SEM. We detected 30 individual microtextures grouped into five microtextural families according to angularity, fresh surfaces, percussion marks, adhering particles and dissolution. The grains from the tsunami deposits have high numbers of fresh surfaces and percussion marks. However, in comparison with the non-tsunamigenic deposits and all reference samples (beach, dune and river) the tsunamigenic deposits do not show statistically significant differences in characteristics and abundances in all microtextural families. The homogeneity in microtextural results of all samples indicate the absence of differences between tsunamigenic, beach dune and river deposits. A distinct tsunami signature could not be identified from our microtextural analysis. Our study indicates that the microtextural analysis of quartz grains may not be a suitable method to identify tsunami deposits.

  13. Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Goda, Katsuichiro


    In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.

  14. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group: a unique organization promoting earthquake and tsunami resilience on California's North Coast

    Dengler, L.; Henderson, C.; Larkin, D.; Nicolini, T.; Ozaki, V.


    The Northern California counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, and Mendocino account for over 30% of California's coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas of the contiguous 48 states. The region is at risk from earthquakes located on- and offshore and from tsunamis generated locally from faults associated with the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and from distant sources elsewhere in the Pacific. In 1995 the California Geological Survey (CGS) published a scenario for a CSZ earthquake that included both strong ground shaking effects and a tsunami. As a result of the scenario, the Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of government agencies, tribes, service groups, academia and the private sector, was formed to coordinate and promote earthquake and tsunami hazard awareness and mitigation in the three-county region. The RCTWG and its member agencies projects include education/outreach products and programs, tsunami hazard mapping, signage and siren planning. Since 2008, RCTWG has worked with the California Emergency Management Agency (Cal EMA) in conducting tsunami warning communications tests on the North Coast. In 2007, RCTWG members helped develop and carry out the first tsunami training exercise at FEMA's Emergency Management Institute in Emmitsburg, MD. The RCTWG has facilitated numerous multi-agency, multi-discipline coordinated exercises, and RCTWG county tsunami response plans have been a model for other regions of the state and country. Eight North Coast communities have been recognized as TsunamiReady by the National Weather Service, including the first National Park the first State Park and only tribe in California to be so recognized. Over 500 tsunami hazard zone signs have been posted in the RCTWG region since 2008. Eight assessment surveys from 1993 to 2010 have tracked preparedness actions and personal awareness of earthquake and tsunami hazards in the county and additional surveys have tracked public awareness and tourist

  15. Experiencing Events through User-Generated Media

    Troncy, R.; Fialho, A.T.S.; Hardman, L.; Saathoff, C.; Hartig, O.; Harth, A.; Sequeda, J.


    Large numbers of websites contain (human-readable) infor- mation about scheduled events, of which some may display media cap- tured at these events. This information is, however, often incomplete and always locked into the sites. This prevents users from creating overviews of media associated with a

  16. The Chile tsunami of 27 February 2010: Field survey and modeling

    Fritz, H. M.; Petroff, C. M.; Catalan, P. A.; Cienfuegos, R.; Winckler, P.; Kalligeris, N.; Weiss, R.; Meneses, G.; Valderas-Bermejo, C.; Barrientos, S. E.; Ebeling, C. W.; Papadopoulos, A.; Contreras, M.; Almar, R.; Dominguez, J.; Synolakis, C.


    On 27 February, 2010 a magnitude Mw 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile's Maule region some 100 km N of Concepción, causing substantial damage and loss of life on Chile's mainland and the Juan Fernandez archipelago. The majority of the 521 fatalities are attributed to the earthquake, while the tsunami accounts for 124 victims. Fortunately, ancestral knowledge from past tsunamis such as the giant 1960 event, as well as tsunami education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate to high ground after the earthquake. The majority of the tsunami victims were tourists staying overnight in low lying camp grounds along the coast. A multi-disciplinary international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event to document flow depths, runup heights, inundation distances, sediment deposition, damage patterns at various scales, performance of the man-made infrastructure and impact on the natural environment. The 3 to 25 March ITST covered an 800 km stretch of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín in various subgroups the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter), while Mocha Island was surveyed 21 to 23 May, 2010. The collected survey data includes more than 400 tsunami runup and flow depth measurements. The tsunami impact peaked with a localized maximum runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitución and 23 m on marine terraces on Mocha Island. A significant variation in tsunami impact was observed along Chile's mainland both at local and regional scales. Inundation and damage also occurred several kilometres inland along rivers. Eyewitness tsunami videos are analysed and flooding velocities presented. Observations from the Chile tsunami are compared against the 1960 Chile, 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis. The tsunamigenic seafloor displacements were partially characterized based on coastal uplift measurements along a 100 km stretch of coastline

  17. Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

    Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.


    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

  18. Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

    Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James


    The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.


    George Pararas-Carayannis


    Full Text Available The paroxysmal phases of Krakatau's volcanic activity on August 26-27, 1883, included numerous submarine Surtsean (phreatomagmatic eruptions, three sub air Plinian eruptions from the three main craters of Krakatau on Rakata island, followed by a fourth gigantic, sub air, Ultra-Plinian explosion. Landslides, flank failures, subsidences and a multiphase massive caldera collapse of the volcano - beginning near the Perbowetan crater on the northern portion of Rakata and followed by a collapse of the Danan crater - occurred over a period of at least 10 hours. The first of the three violent explosions occurred at 17: 07 Greenwich time (GMT on August 26.The second and third eruptions occurred at 05:30 GMT and at 06:44 GMT on August 27. Each of these events, as well as expanding gases from the submarine phreatomagmatic eruptions, lifted the water surrounding the island into domes or truncated cones that must have been about 100 meters or more in height. The height of the resulting waves attenuated rapidly away from the source because of their short periods and wavelengths. It was the fourth colossal explosion (VEI=6 and the subsequent massive f lank failure and caldera collapse of two thirds of Rakata Island, at 10:02 a.m., on August 27 that generated the most formidable of the destructive tsunami waves. A smaller fifth explosion, which occurred at 10:52 a.m., must have generated another large water cone and sizable waves. The final collapse of a still standing wall of Krakatau - which occurred several hours later at 16:38, generated additional waves.The near field effects of the main tsunami along the Sunda Strait in Western Java and Southern Sumatra, were devastating. Within an hour after the fourth explosion/caldera collapse, waves reaching heights of up to 37 m (120 feet destroyed 295 towns and villages and drowned a total of 36,417 people. Because of their short period and wavelength, the wave heights attenuated rapidly with distance away from the

  20. Extreme events, intrinsic landforms and humankind: Post-tsunami scenario along Nagore–Velankanni coast, Tamil Nadu, India

    Mascarenhas, A.

    ? >2750.00 9885 August 2000 Kakinada ? ? ? ~776.75 131 December 2004 Pondicherry 6.5 0.24 ? 512.00 107 (tsunami) Karaikal 2.6 0.20 (Sea wall uprooted; 484 bridge column br o ken) Cuddalore 3.9 0.37 ? 2730.00 606...

  1. Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability

    Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.


    A key component in assessing the hazard posed by tsunamis is quantification of tsunami likelihood or probability. To determine tsunami probability, one needs to know the distribution of tsunami sizes and the distribution of inter-event times. Both empirical and computational methods can be used to determine these distributions. Empirical methods rely on an extensive tsunami catalog and hence, the historical data must be carefully analyzed to determine whether the catalog is complete for a given runup or wave height range. Where site-specific historical records are sparse, spatial binning techniques can be used to perform a regional, empirical analysis. Global and site-specific tsunami catalogs suggest that tsunami sizes are distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law and inter-event times are distributed according to an exponential distribution modified to account for clustering of events in time. Computational methods closely follow Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), where size and inter-event distributions are determined for tsunami sources, rather than tsunamis themselves as with empirical analysis. In comparison to PSHA, a critical difference in the computational approach to tsunami probabilities is the need to account for far-field sources. The three basic steps in computational analysis are (1) determination of parameter space for all potential sources (earthquakes, landslides, etc.), including size and inter-event distributions; (2) calculation of wave heights or runup at coastal locations, typically performed using numerical propagation models; and (3) aggregation of probabilities from all sources and incorporation of uncertainty. It is convenient to classify two different types of uncertainty: epistemic (or knowledge-based) and aleatory (or natural variability). Correspondingly, different methods have been traditionally used to incorporate uncertainty during aggregation, including logic trees and direct integration. Critical

  2. Design and Implementation of a C++ Software Package to scan for and parse Tsunami Messages issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers for Operational use at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

    Sardina, V.


    The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from

  3. Tsunami Impacts in River Environments

    Tolkova, E.; Tanaka, H.; Roh, M.


    The 2010 Chilean and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami events demonstrated the tsunami's ability to penetrate much farther along rivers than the ground inundation. At the same time, while tsunami impacts to the coastal areas have been subject to countless studies, little is known about tsunami propagation in rivers. Here we examine the field data and conduct numerical simulations to gain better understanding of the tsunami impacts in rivers.The evidence which motivated our study is comprised of water level measurements of the aforementioned tsunamis in multiple rivers in Japan, and the 2011 Tohoku and some other tsunamis in the Columbia River in the US. When the available tsunami observations in these very different rivers are brought together, they display remarkably similar patterns not observed on the open coast. Two phenomena were discovered in the field data. First, the phase of the river tide determines the tsunami penetration distance in a very specific way common to all rivers. Tsunami wave progressively disappears on receding tide, whereas high tide greatly facilitates the tsunami intrusion, as seen in the Figure. Second, a strong near-field tsunami causes substantial and prolonged water accumulation in lower river reaches. As the 2011 tsunami intruded rivers in Japan, the water level along rivers rose 1-2 m and stayed high for many hours, with the maximum rise occurring several km from the river mouth. The rise in the water level at some upstream gaging stations even exceeded the tsunami amplitude there.Using the numerical experiments, we attempt to identify the physics behind these effects. We will demonstrate that the nonlinear interactions among the flow components (tsunami, tide, and riverine flow) are an essential condition governing wave dynamics in tidal rivers. Understanding these interactions might explain some previous surprising observations of waves in river environments. Figure: Measurements of the 2010/02/27 tsunami along Naruse and Yoshida rivers

  4. Community exposure to tsunami hazards in California

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie; Peters, Jeff


    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic

  5. Scenarios for earthquake-generated tsunamis on a complex tectonic area of diffuse deformation and low velocity: The Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

    Alvarez-Gomez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Gonzalez, M.; Olabarrieta, M.; Carreno, E.


    The tsunami impact on the Spanish and North African coasts of the Alboran Sea generated by several reliable seismic tsunamigenic sources in this area was modeled. The tectonic setting is complex and a study of the potential sources from geological data is basic to obtain probable source characteristics. The tectonic structures considered in this study as potentially tsunamigenic are: the Alboran Ridge associated structures, the Carboneras Fault Zone and the Yusuf Fault Zone. We characterized 12 probable tsunamigenic seismic sources in the Alboran Basin based on the results of recent oceanographical studies. The strain rate in the area is low and therefore its seismicity is moderate and cannot be used to infer characteristics of the major seismic sources. These sources have been used as input for the numerical simulation of the wave propagation, based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. We calculated the Maximum Wave Elevations, and Tsunami Travel Times using the numerical simulations. The results are shown as maps and profiles along the Spanish and African coasts. The sources associated with the Alboran Ridge show the maximum potential to generate damaging tsunamis, with maximum wave elevations in front of the coast exceeding 1.5. m. The Carboneras and Yusuf faults are not capable of generating disastrous tsunamis on their own, although their proximity to the coast could trigger landslides and associated sea disturbances. The areas which are more exposed to the impact of tsunamis generated in the Alboran Sea are the Spanish coast between Malaga and Adra, and the African coast between Alhoceima and Melilla. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  6. Tsunami Research driven by Survivor Observations: Sumatra 2004, Tohoku 2011 and the Lituya Bay Landslide (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Fritz, Hermann M.


    on inundation and outflow flow velocities. Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcanic island collapses account for some of the most catastrophic events. On July 10, 1958, an earthquake Mw 8.3 along the Fairweather fault triggered a major subaerial landslide into Gilbert Inlet at the head of Lituya Bay on the south coast of Alaska. The landslide impacted the water at high speed generating a giant tsunami and the highest wave runup in recorded history. This event was observed by eyewitnesses on board the sole surviving fishing boat, which managed to ride the tsunami. The mega-tsunami runup to an elevation of 524 m caused total forest destruction and erosion down to bedrock on a spur ridge in direct prolongation of the slide axis. A cross-section of Gilbert Inlet was rebuilt in a two dimensional physical laboratory model. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) provided instantaneous velocity vector fields of decisive initial phase with landslide impact and wave generation as well as the runup on the headland. Three dimensional source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled in the NEES tsunami wave basin (TWB) at Oregon State University (OSU). The measured landslide and tsunami data serve to validate and advance numerical landslide tsunami models. This lecture encompasses multi-hazard aspects and implications of recent tsunami and cyclonic events around the world such as the November 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) in the Philippines.

  7. Numerical modeling of the 1964 Alaska tsunami in western Passage Canal and Whittier, Alaska

    D. J. Nicolsky


    Full Text Available A numerical model of the wave dynamics in Passage Canal, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 megathrust earthquake is presented. During the earthquake, several types of waves were identified at the city of Whittier, located at the head of Passage Canal. The first wave is thought to have been a seiche, while the other two waves were probably triggered by submarine landslides. We model the seiche wave, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami in Passage Canal and compute inundation by each type of wave during the 1964 event. Modeled results are compared with eyewitness reports and an observed inundation line. Results of the numerical experiments let us identify where the submarine landslides might have occurred during the 1964 event. We identify regions at the head and along the northern shore of Passage Canal, where landslides triggered a wave that caused most of the damage in Whittier. An explanation of the fact that the 1964 tectonic tsunami in Whittier was unnoticed is presented as well. The simulated inundation by the seiche, landslide-generated tsunami, and tectonic tsunami can help to mitigate tsunami hazards and prepare Whittier for a potential tsunami.

  8. A standard Event Class for Monte Carlo Generators

    L.A.Gerren; M.Fischler


    StdHepC++[1]is a CLHEP[2] Monte Carlo event class library which provides a common interface to Monte Carlo Event Generators,This work is an extensive redesign of the StdHep Fortran interface to use the full power of object oriented design,A generated event maps naturally onto the Directed Acyclic Graph concept and we have used the HepMC classes to implement this.The full implementation allows the user to combine events to simulate beam pileup and access them transparently as though they were a single event.

  9. Event reweighting with the NuWro neutrino interaction generator

    Pickering, Luke; Sobczyk, Jan


    Event reweighting has been implemented in the NuWro neutrino event generator for a number of free theory parameters in the interaction model. Event reweighting is a key analysis technique, used to efficiently study the effect of neutrino interaction model uncertainties. This opens up the possibility for NuWro to be used as a primary event generator by experimental analysis groups. A preliminary model tuning to ANL and BNL data of quasi-elastic and single pion production events was performed to validate the reweighting engine.

  10. Post-crisis analysis of an ineffective tsunami alert: the 2010 earthquake in Maule, Chile.

    Soulé, Bastien


    Considering its huge magnitude and its location in a densely populated area of Chile, the Maule seism of 27 February 2010 generated a low amount of victims. However, post-seismic tsunamis were particularly devastating on that day; surprisingly, no full alert was launched, not at the national, regional or local level. This earthquake and associated tsunamis are of interest in the context of natural hazards management as well as crisis management planning. Instead of focusing exclusively on the event itself, this article places emphasis on the process, systems and long-term approach that led the tsunami alert mechanism to be ineffectual. Notably, this perspective reveals interrelated forerunner signs of vulnerability.

  11. A Comparative Analysis of Coastal and Open-Ocean Records of the Great Chilean Tsunamis of 2010, 2014 and 2015 off the Coast of Mexico

    Zaytsev, Oleg; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Thomson, Richard E.


    The three great earthquakes off the coast of Chile on 27 February 2010 (Maule, M w 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Iquique, M w 8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Illapel, M w 8.3) generated major transoceanic tsunamis that spread throughout the Pacific Ocean and were measured by numerous coastal tide gauges and open-ocean DART stations. Statistical and spectral analyses of the tsunami waves from the events recorded on the Pacific coast of Mexico enabled us to estimate parameters of the waves along the coast and to compare statistical features of the events. We also identified three coastal "hot spots" (sites having maximum tsunami risk): Puerto Angel, Puerto Madero and Manzanillo. Based on the joint spectral analyses of the tsunamis and background noise, we have developed a method for using coastal observations to determine the underlying spectrum of tsunami waves in the deep ocean. The "reconstructed" open-ocean tsunami spectra are in close agreement with the actual tsunami spectra evaluated from direct analysis of the DART records offshore of Mexico. We have further used the spectral estimates to parameterize the energy of the three Chilean tsunamis based on the total open-ocean tsunami energy and frequency content of the individual events.

  12. SAFRR tsunami scenario: impacts on California ecosystems, species, marine natural resources, and fisheries: Chapter G in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Brosnan, Deborah; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick; Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile


    We evaluate the effects of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems, species, natural resources, and fisheries. We discuss mitigation and preparedness approaches that can be useful in Tsunami planning. The chapter provides an introduction to the role of ecosystems and natural resources in tsunami events (Section 1). A separate section focuses on specific impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario on California’s ecosystems and endangered species (Section 2). A section on commercial fisheries and the fishing fleet (Section 3) documents the plausible effects on California’s commercial fishery resources, fishing fleets, and communities. Sections 2 and 3 each include practical preparedness options for communities and suggestions on information needs or research. Our evaluation indicates that many low-lying coastal habitats, including beaches, marshes and sloughs, rivers and waterways connected to the sea, as well as nearshore submarine habitats will be damaged by the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Beach erosion and complex or high volumes of tsunami-generated debris would pose major challenges for ecological communities. Several endangered species and protected areas are at risk. Commercial fisheries and fishing fleets will be affected directly by the tsunami and indirectly by dependencies on infrastructure that is damaged. There is evidence that in some areas intact ecosystems, notably sand dunes, will act as natural defenses against the tsunami waves. However, ecosystems do not provide blanket protection against tsunami surge. The consequences of ecological and natural resource damage are estimated in the millions of dollars. These costs are driven partly by the loss of ecosystem services, as well as cumulative and follow-on impacts where, for example, increased erosion during the tsunami can in turn lead to subsequent damage and loss to coastal properties. Recovery of ecosystems, natural resources and fisheries is likely to be lengthy and expensive

  13. The Dependency of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment on Magnitude Limits of Seismic Sources in the South China Sea and Adjoining Basins

    Li, Hongwei; Yuan, Ye; Xu, Zhiguo; Wang, Zongchen; Wang, Juncheng; Wang, Peitao; Gao, Yi; Hou, Jingming; Shan, Di


    The South China Sea (SCS) and its adjacent small basins including Sulu Sea and Celebes Sea are commonly identified as tsunami-prone region by its historical records on seismicity and tsunamis. However, quantification of tsunami hazard in the SCS region remained an intractable issue due to highly complex tectonic setting and multiple seismic sources within and surrounding this area. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) is performed in the present study to evaluate tsunami hazard in the SCS region based on a brief review on seismological and tsunami records. 5 regional and local potential tsunami sources are tentatively identified, and earthquake catalogs are generated using Monte Carlo simulation following the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter relationship for each zone. Considering a lack of consensus on magnitude upper bound on each seismic source, as well as its critical role in PTHA, the major concern of the present study is to define the upper and lower limits of tsunami hazard in the SCS region comprehensively by adopting different corner magnitudes that could be derived by multiple principles and approaches, including TGR regression of historical catalog, fault-length scaling, tectonic and seismic moment balance, and repetition of historical largest event. The results show that tsunami hazard in the SCS and adjoining basins is subject to large variations when adopting different corner magnitudes, with the upper bounds 2-6 times of the lower. The probabilistic tsunami hazard maps for specified return periods reveal much higher threat from Cotabato Trench and Sulawesi Trench in the Celebes Sea, whereas tsunami hazard received by the coasts of the SCS and Sulu Sea is relatively moderate, yet non-negligible. By combining empirical method with numerical study of historical tsunami events, the present PTHA results are tentatively validated. The correspondence lends confidence to our study. Considering the proximity of major sources to population-laden cities

  14. Generation of deterministic tsunami hazard maps in the Bay of Cadiz, south-west Spain

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Otero, L.; Olabarrieta, M.; González, M.; Carreño, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Medina, R.; Lima, V.


    The bay of Cádiz is a densely populated and industrialized area, and an important centre of tourism which multiplies its population in the summer months. This bay is situated in the Gulf of Cádiz, the south-west Atlantic margin of the Iberian Peninsula. From a tectonic point of view this area can be defined as a diffuse plate boundary, comprising the eastern edge of the Gloria and Tydeman transforms (where the deformation is mainly concentrated in these shear corridors), the Gorringe Bank, the Horseshoe Abyssal plain, the Portimao and Guadalquivir banks, and the western termination of the arcuated Gibraltar Arc. This deformation zone is the eastern edge of the Azores - Gibraltar seismic zone, being the present day boundary between the Eurasian and African plates. The motion between the plates is mainly convergent in the Gulf of Cádiz, but gradually changes to almost pure transcurrent along the Gloria Fault. The relative motion between the two plates is of the order of 4-5 mm/yr. In order to define the different tsunamigenic zones and to characterize its worst tsunamigenic source we have used seismic, structural and geological data. The numerical model used to simulate the wave propagation and coastal inundation is the C3 (Cantabria, COMCOT and Tsunami-Claw) model. C3 is a hybrid finite difference-finite volume method which balances between efficiency and accuracy. For offshore domain in deep waters the model applies an explicit finite difference scheme (FD), which is computationally fast and accurate in large grids. For near coast domains in coastal areas, it applies a finite volume scheme (VOF). It solves correctly the bore formation and the bore propagation. It is very effective solving the run-up and the run down. A set of five worst case tsunamigenic sources has been used with four different sea levels (minimum tide, most probable low tide, most probable high tide and maximum tide), in order to produce the following thematic maps with the C3 model: maximum


    B. Theilen-Willige


    Full Text Available Based on LANDSAT ETM and Digital Elevation Model (DEM data derived by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM, 2000 of the coastal areas of Northern Venezuela were investigated in order to detect traces of earlier tsunami events. Digital image processing methods used to enhance LANDSAT ETM imageries and to produce morphometric maps (such as hillshade, slope, minimum and maximum curvature maps based on the SRTM DEM data contribute to the detection of morphologic traces that might be related to catastrophic tsunami events. These maps combined with various geodata such as seismotectonic data in a GIS environment allow the delineation of coastal regions with potential tsunami risk. The LANDSAT ETM imageries merged with digitally processed and enhanced SRTM data clearly indicate areas that might be prone by flooding in case of catastrophic tsunami events.

  16. High-energy deposits newly recognized in Hawaii Island (South Point): a catastrophic tsunami generated by South Kona or Kalae flank collapse?

    Marques, F. O.; Hildenbrand, A.; McMurtry, G. M.


    Most of the population and economic activity on Earth is concentrated in coastal areas. Tsunamis, in particular, represent a major threat, because they can travel great distances and impact the far surrounding shorelines within a few hours and cause considerable damage. Two main geological processes can generate destructive tsunamis: (1) high-magnitude earthquakes within the oceans, mostly along active margins, which can generate long-wavelength, low amplitude waves; and (2) giant mass-movements, such as catastrophic flank failure at oceanic volcanoes, which can instantaneously mobilize great amounts of material (several hundreds of km3) and generate high amplitude, medium-wavelength tsunamis. The Hawaiian volcanic chain has been affected by the largest landslides on Earth. Big Island, especially, has faced several catastrophic episodes of flank destabilization, the number, the amplitude and the age of which remain controversial. Knowing that there were flank collapses in South Kona and Kalae, we went to South Point to look for onland evidence of the collapse(s) and related tsunami(s), and found a deposit composed of polygenetic clasts, from mm3 to several m3 in size, mostly angular to sub-rounded, with a sandy to silty matrix. The deposit is covered by pyroclasts (the Pahala ash?), which seem to have been locally remobilized to fill in the spaces in the underlying conglomeratic deposit. The absence of a continuous indurate cement precludes an inland origin for the sedimentary deposit. Moreover, the South Point deposit lies on a flat platform far from the main topographic relief of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. Emplacement of the ash layers covering the deposits requires a highly explosive eruption, which we attribute to pressure release driven by the collapse. Presently the deposit is lying at an altitude of ca. 10 m, but in the past it was higher, since the island has experienced significant ongoing subsidence. From previous estimates of the age of the

  17. Tsunami Preparedness in California (videos)

    Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine


    Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. These videos about tsunami preparedness in California distinguish between a local tsunami and a distant event and focus on the specific needs of each region. They offer guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. These videos were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E).

  18. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    S. Wegscheider


    Full Text Available More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences.

    The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1 identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2 bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3 can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk.

    Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  19. Direct bed stress measurements under solitary tsunami-type waves and breaking tsunami wave fronts

    JayaKumar, S.; Baldock, T.E.

    , the force measured by the shear plate includes the bed shear stress and the pressure gradient force from the wave. Linear wave theory is often used to estimate (Rankin and Hires, 2000) and eliminate the pressure gradient from the total force so... for selected solitary waves generated in laboratory that are comparable with the theory Parameters Cyclone (shallow) Cyclone (deep) Tsunami-1 (shallow) Tsunami-2 (shallow) Tsunami-1 (deep) Tsunami-2 (deep) Wave height (m) 20 20 1 1 1 1 Wave...

  20. Puerto Rico Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program-LANTEX 09 Survey

    Diaz, W.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.


    Tsunami warning, assessment, education, mitigation and preparedness efforts seek to reduce losses related to tsunamis in Puerto Rico (PR). The PR Seismic Network (PRSN) works with governmental agencies and local communities to implement these tsunami hazard risk reduction programs. The Caribbean has a a history of destructive tsunamis such as Virgin Islands (1867), PR (1918) and Dominican Republic (1946). Tsunamis originating near PR are a near-field hazard for as they can reach coastal areas within minutes of a generating event. Sources for regional and tele tsunamis have been identified. To mitigate these risks to communities, the PR Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Program (PRTWMP) was established in 2000 with funding from FEMA, the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and the PR State Emergency Management Agency (PRSEMA). With the support of NTHMP and TsunamiReady (TR), PR continues to seek to mitigate possible tsunami damages and increase community resilience by helping communities meet the TR guidelines by providing them inundation maps, helping them develop evacuation maps and emergency plans, assisting them with community outreach efforts and conducting evacuation drills. Currently 6 of 44 tsunami threatened communities in PR have been recognized as TsunamiReady. As part of this process, the PRSN, PRSEMA and various communities participated in the LANTEX 2009 tsunami exercise. This exercise took place on April 2, 2009 and was based on a scenario in which an earthquake northeast of PR generates a major tsunami which impacts PR and the USVI and threatens the states along the continental US eastern coast. The municipality of Mayagüez, a TsunamiReady community since 2006, participated in the exercise by activating its Emergency Operations Center , conducting evacuation drills in schools located within its tsunami exposed area, and activating its warning siren. This presentation highlights findings of UPRM social scientists collaborating with the PRTWMP who conducted

  1. Properties of proton-proton collision and comparing event generators by multi-jet events

    Tang, Wai Ho


    There are many regimes to be deeply investigated in the field of high energy physics and particles physics. The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Geneva, Switzerland is built to study those physics. A lot of Monte Carlo event generators are constructed to simulate the Standard Model. One of purposes of the LHC is obtaining data from real experiment to test the predictions of all Monte Carlo event generators. There are two main parts in this articles. First, the basic properties of proton-proton collision will be shown, with discussion of problems arose from jet algorithms. The second part compares different event generators with detailed discussion.

  2. General-purpose event generators for LHC physics

    Buckley, Andy; Gieseke, Stefan; Grellscheid, David; Hoche, Stefan; Hoeth, Hendrik; Krauss, Frank; Lonnblad, Leif; Nurse, Emily; Richardson, Peter; Schumann, Steffen; Seymour, Michael H; Sjostrand, Torbjorn; Skands, Peter; Webber, Bryan


    We review the physics basis, main features and use of general-purpose Monte Carlo event generators for the simulation of proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Topics included are: the generation of hard-scattering matrix elements for processes of interest, at both leading and next-to-leading QCD perturbative order; their matching to approximate treatments of higher orders based on the showering approximation; the parton and dipole shower formulations; parton distribution functions for event generators; non-perturbative aspects such as soft QCD collisions, the underlying event and diffractive processes; the string and cluster models for hadron formation; the treatment of hadron and tau decays; the inclusion of QED radiation and beyond-Standard-Model processes. We describe the principal features of the ARIADNE, Herwig++, PYTHIA 8 and SHERPA generators, together with the Rivet and Professor validation and tuning tools, and discuss the physics philosophy behind the proper use of these generators ...

  3. Evaluation of the Relationship Between Coral Damage and Tsunami Dynamics; Case Study: 2009 Samoa Tsunami

    Dilmen, Derya I.; Titov, Vasily V.; Roe, Gerard H.


    On September 29, 2009, an Mw = 8.1 earthquake at 17:48 UTC in Tonga Trench generated a tsunami that caused heavy damage across Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga islands. Tutuila island, which is located 250 km from the earthquake epicenter, experienced tsunami flooding and strong currents on the north and east coasts, causing 34 fatalities (out of 192 total deaths from this tsunami) and widespread structural and ecological damage. The surrounding coral reefs also suffered heavy damage. The damage was formally evaluated based on detailed surveys before and immediately after the tsunami. This setting thus provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the relationship between tsunami dynamics and coral damage. In this study, estimates of the maximum wave amplitudes and coastal inundation of the tsunami are obtained with the MOST model (T itov and S ynolakis, J. Waterway Port Coast Ocean Eng: pp 171, 1998; T itov and G onzalez, NOAA Tech. Memo. ERL PMEL 112:11, 1997), which is now the operational tsunami forecast tool used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The earthquake source function was constrained using the real-time deep-ocean tsunami data from three DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting for Tsunamis) systems in the far field, and by tide-gauge observations in the near field. We compare the simulated run-up with observations to evaluate the simulation performance. We present an overall synthesis of the tide-gauge data, survey results of the run-up, inundation measurements, and the datasets of coral damage around the island. These data are used to assess the overall accuracy of the model run-up prediction for Tutuila, and to evaluate the model accuracy over the coral reef environment during the tsunami event. Our primary findings are that: (1) MOST-simulated run-up correlates well with observed run-up for this event ( r = 0.8), it tends to underestimated amplitudes over coral reef environment around Tutuila (for 15 of 31 villages, run

  4. Extreme events in excitable systems and mechanisms of their generation.

    Ansmann, Gerrit; Karnatak, Rajat; Lehnertz, Klaus; Feudel, Ulrike


    We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change. These deviations are rare, short-lasting, and recurrent and can therefore be regarded as extreme events. Employing a range of methods we analyze dynamical properties of the systems, identifying features in the systems' dynamics that may qualify as precursors to extreme events. We investigate these features and elucidate mechanisms that may be responsible for the generation of the extreme events.

  5. Numerical simulation of the Tohoku-oki tsunami and implications for the tsunami sedimentation in the offshore, nearshore and onshore of Sendai Bay

    Sugawara, D.; Goto, K.; Imamura, F.


    The 11th March 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake tsunami struck the Pacific coast of northeast Japan, and reached maximum run-up of 40 m at the rocky ria coast and maximum inundation distance around 4-5 km in the flat coastal plains, causing more than 19,000 dead and missing, and massive impacts on the societies. The tsunami heights have been investigated at more than 5,000 locations. Numbers of tsunami source models have been proposed during these 17 months, based on the geodetic, seismic and tide records, as well as the measured tsunami heights. Extensive field surveys have been carried out in the coastal plains of Sendai Bay, where the sandy beach ridges are developed along the coastline, and a lot of new findings on sedimentary feature of tsunami deposits have been obtained. For example, previous researches reported that the sandy tsunami deposits were found to be distributed only 60% of the inundation distance, in case the tsunami invaded more than 3 km from the coastline. Small contribution of marine materials to onshore tsunami deposits was inferred from the micropaleontological and geochemical analysis. These findings will be applied to develop the framework for deposit-based estimation of paleotsunami magnitude and to establish the identification criteria of paleotsunami deposit. In this regard, increase of our understanding of relationship between tsunami hydrodynamics and sedimentation is essential to further advance of tsunami researches. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to investigate the generation, propagation and inundation process of tsunamis, and to analyze its relevance to sediment transport and deposition. The simulations provide temporal and spatial variation of flow depths and speeds. In case of the Tohoku-oki tsunami, numbers of observational data and video footages are applicable for validation of the simulated results. In this presentation, the tsunami sedimentation by the Tohoku-oki event will be discussed from the viewpoint of numerical


    Phillip Watts


    Full Text Available Tsunami sources are intimately linked to geological events. Earthquakes and landslides are shown to be part of a continuum of complicated geological phenomena. Advances in landslide tsunami research will remain coupled with marine geology research. The landslide tsunami hypothesis is shown to have originated in the scientific literature in the early 1900s. Tsunami science has been slow to embrace the hypothesis in part because of the tremendous uncertainity that it introduces into tsunami gneration. The 1998 Papua New Guyinea event sparked much controbersy regarding the landslide tsunami hypothesis despite a preponderance of the evidence in favor of one simple and consistent explanation of the tsunami source. Part of the difficulty was the unanticipated distinction between slide and slump tsunami sources. Significant controversies still exist over other aspects of the Papua New Guinea event. The landslide hypothesis will become widely acceepted once direct measurements of underwater landslide events are made. These measurements will likely be integrated into a local tsunami warning system.

  7. Les Houches Squared Event Generator for the NMSSM

    Pukhov, A.; /Moscow State U.; Skands, P.; /Fermilab


    We present a generic framework for event generation in the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM), including the full chain of production process, resonance decays, parton showering, hadronization, and hadron decays. The framework at present uses NMHDECAY to compute the NMSSM spectrum and resonance widths, CALCHEP for the generation of hard scattering processes, and PYTHIA for resonance decays and fragmentation. The interface between the codes is organized by means of two Les Houches Accords, one for supersymmetric mass and coupling spectra (SLHA,2003) and the other for the event generator interface (2000).

  8. February 27, 2010 Chilean Tsunami in Pacific and its Arrival to North East Asia

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, EfiM.; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Ozer, Ceren; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina; Shevchenko, Georgy


    The outskirts of the fault plane broken by the strong earthquake on February 27, 2010 in Chili with a magnitude 8.8 at the 35km depth of 35.909°S, 72.733°W coordinates generated a moderate size tsunami. The initial amplitude of the tsunami source is not so high because of the major area of the plane was at land. The tsunami waves propagated far distances in South and North directions to East Asia and Wet America coasts. The waves are also recorded by several gauges in Pacific during its propagation and arrival to coastal areas. The recorded and observed amplitudes of tsunami waves are important for the potential effects with the threatening amplitudes. The event also showed that a moderate size tsunami can be effective even if it propagates far distances in any ocean or a marginal sea. The far east coasts of Russia at North East Asia (Sakhalin, Kuriles, Kamchatka) are one of the important source (i.e. November 15, 2006, Kuril Island Tsunami) and target (i.e. February, 27, 2010 Chilean tsunami) areas of the Pacific tsunamis. Many efforts have been spent for establishment of the monitoring system and assessment of tsunamis and development of the mitigation strategies against tsunamis and other hazards in the region. Development of the computer technologies provided the advances in data collection, transfer, and processing. Furthermore it also contributed new developments in computational tools and made the computer modeling to be an efficient tool in tsunami warning systems. In this study the tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE Nested version is used. NAMI-DANCE solves Nonlinear form of Long Wave (Shallow water) equations (with or without dispersion) using finite difference model in nested grid domains from the source to target areas in multiprocessor hardware environment. It is applied to 2010 Chilean tsunami and its propagation and coastal behavior at far distances near Sakhalin, Kuril and Kamchatka coasts. The main tide gauge records used in this study are from

  9. U.S. Tsunami Information technology (TIM) Modernization: Performance Assessment of Tsunamigenic Earthquake Discrimination System

    Hagerty, M. T.; Lomax, A.; Hellman, S. B.; Whitmore, P.; Weinstein, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.; Knight, W. R.


    Tsunami warning centers must rapidly decide whether an earthquake is likely to generate a destructive tsunami in order to issue a tsunami warning quickly after a large event. For very large events (Mw > 8 or so), magnitude and location alone are sufficient to warrant an alert. However, for events of smaller magnitude (e.g., Mw ~ 7.5), particularly for so-called "tsunami earthquakes", magnitude alone is insufficient to issue an alert and other measurements must be rapidly made and used to assess tsunamigenic potential. The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project to update and standardize the earthquake and tsunami monitoring systems currently employed at the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers in Ewa Beach, Hawaii (PTWC) and Palmer, Alaska (NTWC). We (ISTI) are responsible for implementing the seismic monitoring components in this new system, including real-time seismic data collection and seismic processing. The seismic data processor includes a variety of methods aimed at real-time discrimination of tsunamigenic events, including: Mwp, Me, slowness (Theta), W-phase, mantle magnitude (Mm), array processing and finite-fault inversion. In addition, it contains the ability to designate earthquake scenarios and play the resulting synthetic seismograms through the processing system. Thus, it is also a convenient tool that integrates research and monitoring and may be used to calibrate and tune the real-time monitoring system. Here we show results of the automated processing system for a large dataset of subduction zone earthquakes containing recent tsunami earthquakes and we examine the accuracy of the various discrimation methods and discuss issues related to their successful real-time application.

  10. Tsunami Research and Monitoring Enabled through Ocean Network Canada's NEPTUNE Cabled Observatory

    Heesemann, M.; Insua, T. L.; Mihaly, S. F.; Thomson, R.; Rabinovich, A.; Fine, I.; Scherwath, M.; Moran, K.


    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC; operates the multidisciplinary NEPTUNE and VENUS cabled ocean observatories off the west coast of Canada and an increasing number of miniature ocean observatories, such as in the Canadian Arctic. All data collected by these observatories are archived and publicly available through ONC's Oceans 2.0 data portal. Much of the data are related to marine geohazards, such as earthquakes, submarine landslides, and tsunamis and are delivered in real-time to various agencies, including early warning centers. The NEPTUNE and VENUS cabled observatories consist of over 850 km of cable deployed inshore and offshore off Vancouver Island and covers the coastal zones, the northern part of the Cascadia subduction zone, Cascadia Basin, and the Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Geological evidence suggests that there is a 25-40% probability of a magnitude 8 or greater megathrust earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone in the next 50 years and that the most recent great earthquake (estimated magnitude ~9.0) that occurred in 1700 caused widespread tsunami damage. However, most of the tsunamis that arrive in the area originate from distant sources around the Pacific. Over the last 100 years, numerous major tsunamis have occurred in the Pacific Ocean, killing many tens of thousands of people. The NEPTUNE observatory includes high-precision bottom pressure recorders (BPRs) at each major nodes and a tsunami meter consisting of three BPRs arranged on a ~20 km radius circle around the flat Cascadia Basin site. On September 30, 2009, just days after the first NEPTUNE instruments were installed, the first tsunami waves of 2.5-6.0 cm amplitude generated by the Mw 8.1 Samoa earthquake were recorded by six BPRs. The Samoan tsunami was followed by several other events recorded by the network, including the 2010 Chilean tsunami, the 2011 Tōhoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami, and the 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami. These open

  11. Rupture extent of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake inferred from numerical modeling of tsunami data

    Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, P. M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Victor, L. Mendes


    The occurrence of tsunamis, affecting the Portuguese coasts, has been reported since the year 60 BC and the Gorringe bank region has been assumed as the most prone area for tsunami generation in the southwestern Iberian area. The tsunami generated by the 1755.11.01 earthquake is the largest one known in this area, having deeply affected the coasts of Iberia and Morocco. The earthquake, itself, was felt all over Europe, its estimated magnitude being 8.3/4 and its MSK intensity at the epicenter I 0=XI-XII. The great similarity between the isoseismal maps of this event and those of the recent 1969.02.28 earthquake lead several authors to locate the epicenter of the 1755 tsunami close to the Gorringe Bank (cf. Fig 1) and to infer the same type of focal mechanism (e.g. Machado, 1966, Martinez Solares et al., 1979, Levret, 1991) as the one deduced for the 1969 event (Fukao, 1973). The correct identification of the tsunamigenic sources is the essential task for the determination of tsunami risk at the Iberian area. The question we try to answer in the present study is whether or not there is only one major tsunami generating area in the western Iberia as it has been assumed until now. The results obtained here suggest that the 1755 tsunami was probably originated on the continental Iberian shelf, implying an epicentre area located between the Gorringe Bank and the Iberian coasts (cf. Fig. 1), closer to the coast. A complex source is proposed in order to justify tsunami observations in Morocco and seismic intensity values along the lberian and north Morocco coasts

  12. On The Source Of The 25 November 1941 - Atlantic Tsunami

    Baptista, M. A.; Lisboa, F. B.; Miranda, J. M. A.


    In this study we analyze the tsunami recorded in the North Atlantic following the 25 November 1941 earthquake. The earthquake with a magnitude of 8.3, located on the Gloria Fault, was one of the largest strike slip events recorded. The Gloria fault is a 500 km long scarp in the North Atlantic Ocean between 19W and 24W known to be a segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between Iberia and the Azores. Ten tide stations recorded the tsunami. Six in Portugal (mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands), two in Morocco, one in the United Kingdom and one in Spain (Tenerife-Canary Islands). The tsunami waves reached Azores and Madeira Islands less than one hour after the main shock. The tide station of Casablanca (in Morocco) recorded the maximum amplitude of 0.54 m. All amplitudes recorded are lower than 0.5 m but the tsunami reached Portugal mainland in high tide conditions where the sea flooded some streets We analyze the 25 November 1941 tsunami data using the tide-records in the coasts of Portugal, Spain, Morocco and UK to infer its source. The use of wavelet analysis to characterize the frequency content of the tide-records shows predominant periods of 9-13min e 18-22min. A preliminary location of the tsunami source location was obtained Backward Ray Tracing (BRT). The results of the BRT technique are compatible with the epicenter location of the earthquake. We compute empirical Green functions for the earthquake generation area, and use a linear shallow water inversion technique to compute the initial water displacement. The comparison between forward modeling with observations shows a fair agreement with available data. This work received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603839 (Project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe)"

  13. Laboratory investigations of the effects of geologic heterogeneity on groundwater salinization and flush-out times from a tsunami-like event.

    Vithanage, M; Engesgaard, P; Jensen, K H; Illangasekare, T H; Obeysekera, J


    This intermediate scale laboratory experimental study was designed to improve the conceptual understanding of aquifer flushing time associated with diffuse saltwater contamination of coastal aquifers due to a tsunami-like event. The motivation comes from field observations made after the tsunami in December, 2004 in South Asia. The focus is on the role and effects of heterogeneity on flushing effectiveness. A scheme that combines experimentation in a 4.8m long laboratory tank and numerical modeling was used. To demonstrate the effects of geologic heterogeneity, plume migration and flushing times were analyzed in both homogeneous and layered media and under different boundary conditions (ambient flow, saltwater infiltration rate, freshwater recharge). Saltwater and freshwater infiltrations imitate the results of the groundwater salinization from the tsunami and freshening from the monsoon rainfall. The saltwater plume behavior was monitored both through visual observations (digital photography) of the dyed salt water and using measurements taken from several electrical conductivity sensors installed through the tank walls. The variable-density, three dimensional code HST3D was used to simulate the tank experiments and understand the fate and movement of the saltwater plume under field conditions. The results from the tank experiments and modeling demonstrated that macro-scale heterogeneity significantly influenced the migration patterns and flushing times of diffuse saltwater contamination. Ambient flow had a direct influence on total flush-out time, and heterogeneity impacted flush-out times for the top part of the tank and total flush-out times. The presence of a continuous low-permeability layer caused a 40% increase in complete flush-out time due to the slower flow of salt water in the low-permeability layer. When a relatively small opening was introduced in the low-permeability layer, salt water migrated quickly into a higher-permeable layer below causing a

  14. Simulation systems for tsunami wave propagation forecasting within the French tsunami warning center

    Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.


    Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. A first generation model-based tsunami prediction system is being developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center that will be operational by mid 2012. It involves a pre-computed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored) corresponding to tsunami scenarios generated by a source of seismic moment 1.75E+19 N.m with a rectangular fault 25 km by 20 km in size and 1 m in slip. The faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults bounding the western Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic basins. An authomatized composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment). The strategy is based on linear combinations and scaling of a finite number of pre-computed unit source functions. The number of unit functions involved varies with the magnitude of the wanted composite solution and the combined wave heights are multiplied by a given scaling factor to produce the new arbitrary scenario. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy on the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. For one tsunamigenic event, the tool produces finally 3 warning maps (i.e., most likely, minimum and maximum scenarios) together with the rough decision matrix representation. A no-dimension code representation is chosen to show zones in the main axis of energy at the basin

  15. Test Problems for Coupled Earthquake-Tsunami Simulations

    Behrens, Jörn; Bader, Michael; van Dinther, Ylona; Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Rahnema, Kaveh; Ulrich, Thomas; Uphoff, Carsten; Vater, Stefan; Wollherr, Stephanie; van Zelst, Iris


    For the project "Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events" (ASCETE, funded by the Volkswagen Foundation), a simulation framework for coupled physics-based earthquake rupture generation with tsunami propagation and inundation has been developed. The rupture simulation is performed using an ADER discontinuous Galerkin discretization on an unstructured tetrahedral mesh. It is able to accurately represent complex geometries, is highly parallelized, and works efficiently in high-performance computing environments. An adaptive mesh discretizing the shallow water equations with a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) scheme subsequently allows for an accurate and efficient representation of the tsunami evolution and inundation at the coast. We aim to validate and understand this new coupled framework between the dynamic earthquake within the earth's crust and the resulting tsunami wave within the ocean using a simplified model setup. The earthquake setup includes a planar, shallowly dipping subduction fault with linear depth-dependent initial stress and strength in a homogeneous elastic medium. Resulting sea floor displacements along an initially planar (and later realistic) bathymetry profile are transferred to the tsunami setup with an initially simple coastal run-up profile. We present preliminary evaluations of the rupture behavior and its interaction with the hydrodynamic wave propagation and coastal inundation. Once validated in this simplified setup, we will constrain the earthquake initial stress and strength conditions from realistic and physically consistent seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling on long timescales.

  16. Large Historical Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Italy: The Neglected Tsunami Research Point of View

    Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.; Pagnoni, G.; Zaniboni, F.


    It is known that tsunamis are rather rare events, especially when compared to earthquakes, and the Italian coasts are no exception. Nonetheless, a striking evidence is that 6 out of 10 earthquakes occurred in the last thousand years in Italy, and having equivalent moment magnitude equal or larger than 7 where accompanied by destructive or heavily damaging tsunamis. If we extend the lower limit of the equivalent moment magnitude down to 6.5 the percentage decreases (around 40%), but is still significant. Famous events like those occurred on 30 July 1627 in Gargano, on 11 January 1693 in eastern Sicily, and on 28 December 1908 in the Messina Straits are part of this list: they were all characterized by maximum run-ups of several meters (13 m for the 1908 tsunami), significant maximum inundation distances, and large (although not precisely quantifiable) numbers of victims. Further evidences provided in the last decade by paleo-tsunami deposit analyses help to better characterize the tsunami impact and confirm that none of the cited events can be reduced to local or secondary effects. Proper analysis and simulation of available tsunami data would then appear as an obvious part of the correct definition of the sources responsible for the largest Italian tsunamigenic earthquakes, in a process in which different datasets analyzed by different disciplines must be reconciled rather than put into contrast with each other. Unfortunately, macroseismic, seismic and geological/geomorphological observations and data typically are assigned much heavier weights, and in-land faults are often assigned larger credit than the offshore ones, even when evidence is provided by tsunami simulations that they are not at all capable of justifying the observed tsunami effects. Tsunami generation is imputed a-priori to only supposed, and sometimes even non-existing, submarine landslides. We try to summarize the tsunami research point of view on the largest Italian historical tsunamigenic

  17. Trans-Atlantic tsunamis: Simulations of the 1755 Lisbon and of hypothetical Puerto Rico trench earthquake tsunamis

    Barkan, R.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lin, J.


    The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0, was the most destructive earthquake in European history. Run-ups from a trans-oceanic tsunami were reported in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland, but there were no reports along the U.S. East Coast. Previous attempts to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source utilized geophysical surveys and modeling of the near-field earthquake intensity and near-field tsunami run-up. Here we attempt to constrain the source parameters using the far-field tsunami effects because trans-oceanic tsunami run-ups are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Our far- and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison, limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of Gorringe Bank in the center of Horseshoe Plain. This location contrasts with previously suggested sources such as the Marqués de Pombal and Gulf of Cadiz faults, which are farther to the east. Based on relative wave amplitude and polarity, the earthquake was likely a thrust event on a fault striking about 345 deg. and dipping to the ENE which is almost perpendicular to the trend of Gorringe Bank. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast (with the exception of Florida) from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. By contrast, sources located west of the MTR or in the Gulf of Cadiz could potentially affect the southeastern coast of the U.S. The Azores-Iberia plate boundary west of the MTR is characterized by strike-slip faults, which are less likely to generate tsunamis, but the Gulf of Cadiz may have thrust faults. Simulations of a hypothetical M8.9 tsunamigenic earthquake in the Puerto Rico trench were conducted to investigate its possible effect on coastal Europe. The recorded history of Western Europe extends

  18. Tsunami generated by a granular collapse down a rough inclined plane

    Viroulet, Sylvain; Kimmoun, Olivier


    In this Letter, we experimentally investigate the collapse of initially dry granular media into water and the subsequent impulse waves. We systematically characterize the influence of the slope angle and the granular material on the initial amplitude of the generated leading wave and the evolution of its amplitude during the propagation. The experiments show that whereas the evolution of the leading wave during the propagation is well predicted by a solution of the linearized Korteweg-de Vries equation, the generation of the wave is more complicated to describe. Our results suggest that the internal properties of the granular media and the interplay with the surrounding fluid are important parameters for the generation of waves at low velocity impacts. Moreover, the amplitude of the leading wave reaches a maximum value at large slope angle. The runout distance of the collapse is also shown to be smaller in the presence of water than under totally dry conditions. This study provides a first insight into tsunam...

  19. Integrating Caribbean Seismic and Tsunami Hazard into Public Policy and Action

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.


    The Caribbean has a long history of tsunamis and earthquakes. Over the past 500 years, more than 80 tsunamis have been documented in the region by the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Almost 90% of all these historical tsunamis have been associated with earthquakes. Just since 1842, 3510 lives have been lost to tsunamis; this is more than in the Northeastern Pacific for the same time period. With a population of almost 160 million and a heavy concentration of residents, tourists, businesses and critical infrastructure along the Caribbean shores (especially in the northern and eastern Caribbean), the risk to lives and livelihoods is greater than ever before. Most of the countries also have a very high exposure to earthquakes. Given the elevated vulnerability, it is imperative that government officials take steps to mitigate the potentially devastating effects of these events. Nevertheless, given the low frequency of high impact earthquakes and tsunamis, in comparison to hurricanes, combined with social and economic considerations, the needed investments are not made and disasters like the 2010 Haiti earthquake occur. In the absence of frequent significant events, an important driving force for public officials to take action, is the dissemination of scientific studies. When papers of this nature have been published and media advisories issued, public officials demonstrate heightened interest in the topic which in turn can lead to increased legislation and funding efforts. This is especially the case if the material can be easily understood by the stakeholders and there is a local contact. In addition, given the close link between earthquakes and tsunamis, in Puerto Rico alone, 50% of the high impact earthquakes have also generated destructive tsunamis, it is very important that earthquake and tsunami hazards studies demonstrate consistency. Traditionally in the region, earthquake and tsunami impacts have been considered independently in the emergency planning

  20. General-purpose event generators for LHC physics

    Buckley, Andy; /Edinburgh U.; Butterworth, Jonathan; /University Coll. London; Gieseke, Stefan; /Karlsruhe U., ITP; Grellscheid, David; /Durham U., IPPP; Hoche, Stefan; /SLAC; Hoeth, Hendrik; Krauss, Frank; /Durham U., IPPP; Lonnblad, Leif; /Lund U., Dept. Theor. Phys. /CERN; Nurse, Emily; /University Coll. London; Richardson, Peter; /Durham U., IPPP; Schumann, Steffen; /Heidelberg U.; Seymour, Michael H.; /Manchester U.; Sjostrand, Torbjorn; /Lund U., Dept. Theor. Phys.; Skands, Peter; /CERN; Webber, Bryan; /Cambridge U.


    We review the physics basis, main features and use of general-purpose Monte Carlo event generators for the simulation of proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Topics included are: the generation of hard-scattering matrix elements for processes of interest, at both leading and next-to-leading QCD perturbative order; their matching to approximate treatments of higher orders based on the showering approximation; the parton and dipole shower formulations; parton distribution functions for event generators; non-perturbative aspects such as soft QCD collisions, the underlying event and diffractive processes; the string and cluster models for hadron formation; the treatment of hadron and tau decays; the inclusion of QED radiation and beyond-Standard-Model processes. We describe the principal features of the Ariadne, Herwig++, Pythia 8 and Sherpa generators, together with the Rivet and Professor validation and tuning tools, and discuss the physics philosophy behind the proper use of these generators and tools. This review is aimed at phenomenologists wishing to understand better how parton-level predictions are translated into hadron-level events as well as experimentalists wanting a deeper insight into the tools available for signal and background simulation at the LHC.

  1. Producing Hard Processes Regarding the Complete Event: The EPOS Event Generator

    Porteboeuf, S; Werner, K


    Jet cross sections can be in principle compared to simple pQCD calculations, based on the hypothesis of factorization. But often it is useful or even necessary to not only compute the production rate of the very high pt jets, but in addition the "rest of the event". The proposed talk is based on recent work, where we try to construct an event generator fully compatible with pQCD which allows to compute complete events, consisting of high pt jets plus all the other low pt particles produced at the same time. Whereas in "generators of inclusive spectra" like Pythia one may easily trigger on high pt phenomena, this is not so obvious for "generators of physical events", where in principle one has to generate a very large number of events in order to finally obtain rare events (like those with a very high pt jet). We recently developped an independnat block method which allow us ta have a direct access to dedicated variables 1. We will present latest results concerning this approach.

  2. Distribution of tsunami interevent times

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.


    The distribution of tsunami interevent times is analyzed using global and site-specific (Hilo, Hawaii) tsunami catalogs. An empirical probability density distribution is determined by binning the observed interevent times during a period in which the observation rate is approximately constant. The empirical distributions for both catalogs exhibit non-Poissonian behavior in which there is an abundance of short interevent times compared to an exponential distribution. Two types of statistical distributions are used to model this clustering behavior: (1) long-term clustering described by a universal scaling law, and (2) Omori law decay of aftershocks and triggered sources. The empirical and theoretical distributions all imply an increased hazard rate after a tsunami, followed by a gradual decrease with time approaching a constant hazard rate. Examination of tsunami sources suggests that many of the short interevent times are caused by triggered earthquakes, though the triggered events are not necessarily on the same fault.

  3. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

    E. Ulutas


    Full Text Available This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1 pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2 near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3 post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died

  4. Absolute GPS Time Event Generation and Capture for Remote Locations

    HIRES Collaboration

    The HiRes experiment operates fixed location and portable lasers at remote desert locations to generate calibration events. One physics goal of HiRes is to search for unusual showers. These may appear similar to upward or horizontally pointing laser tracks used for atmospheric calibration. It is therefore necessary to remove all of these calibration events from the HiRes detector data stream in a physics blind manner. A robust and convenient "tagging" method is to generate the calibration events at precisely known times. To facilitate this tagging method we have developed the GPSY (Global Positioning System YAG) module. It uses a GPS receiver, an embedded processor and additional timing logic to generate laser triggers at arbitrary programmed times and frequencies with better than 100nS accuracy. The GPSY module has two trigger outputs (one microsecond resolution) to trigger the laser flash-lamp and Q-switch and one event capture input (25nS resolution). The GPSY module can be programmed either by a front panel menu based interface or by a host computer via an RS232 serial interface. The latter also allows for computer logging of generated and captured event times. Details of the design and the implementation of these devices will be presented. 1 Motivation Air Showers represent a small fraction, much less than a percent, of the total High Resolution Fly's Eye data sample. The bulk of the sample is calibration data. Most of this calibration data is generated by two types of systems that use lasers. One type sends light directly to the detectors via optical fibers to monitor detector gains (Girard 2001). The other sends a beam of light into the sky and the scattered light that reaches the detectors is used to monitor atmospheric effects (Wiencke 1998). It is important that these calibration events be cleanly separated from the rest of the sample both to provide a complete set of monitoring information, and more

  5. MAIZEGDB.ORG, the Maize Genetics Cooperation and the 2500 MB B73 Genome-Generated Tsunami

    Advances in sequencing technology have made it possible to sequence the 2500 MB B73 maize genome, both cheaply and in a relatively short time. Nearly simultaneously, other sequencing-based data are on the leading edge of a data tsunami: sequenced differences (currently >300,000 SNP for >1000 inbre...

  6. The events associated with the great tsunami of 26 December, 2004 sea level variation and impact on coastal region of India

    Shetye, S.R.

    stream_size 9945 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Proc_Brain_Storming_Sess_Great_Tsunami_2004_57.pdf.txt stream_source_info Proc_Brain_Storming_Sess_Great_Tsunami_2004_57.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content...

  7. A protocol for coordinating post-tsunami field reconnaissance efforts in the USA

    Wilson, Rick I.; Wood, Nathan J.; Kong, Laura; Shulters, Michael V.; Richards, Kevin D.; Dunbar, Paula; Tamura, Gen; Young, Edward J.


    In the aftermath of a catastrophic tsunami, much is to be learned about tsunami generation and propagation, landscape and ecological changes, and the response and recovery of those affected by the disaster. Knowledge of the impacted area directly helps response and relief personnel in their efforts to reach and care for survivors and for re-establishing community services. First-hand accounts of tsunami-related impacts and consequences also help researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in other parts of the world that lack recent events to better understand and manage their own societal risks posed by tsunami threats. Conducting post-tsunami surveys and disseminating useful results to decision makers in an effective, efficient, and timely manner is difficult given the logistical issues and competing demands in a post-disaster environment. To facilitate better coordination of field-data collection and dissemination of results, a protocol for coordinating post-tsunami science surveys was developed by a multi-disciplinary group of representatives from state and federal agencies in the USA. This protocol is being incorporated into local, state, and federal post-tsunami response planning through the efforts of the Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, and the U.S. National Plan for Disaster Impact Assessments. Although the protocol was designed to support a coordinated US post-tsunami response, we believe it could help inform post-disaster science surveys conducted elsewhere and further the discussion on how hazard researchers can most effectively operate in disaster environments.




    This volume contains the report of the RIKEN BNL Research Center workshop on ''Event Generator for RHIC Spin Physics'' held on September 21-23, 1998 at Brookhaven National Laboratory. A major objective of the workshop was to establish a firm collaboration to develop suitable event generators for the spin physics program at RHIC. With the completion of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) as a polarized collider a completely new domain of high-energy spin physics will be opened. The planned studies address the spin structure of the nucleon, tests of the standard model, and transverse spin effects in initial and final states. RHIC offers the unique opportunity to pursue these studies because of its high and variable energy, 50 {le} {radical}s {le} 500 GeV, high polarization, 70%, and high luminosity, 2 x 10{sup 32} cm{sup -2} sec{sup -1} or more at 500 GeV. To maximize the output from the spin program at RHIC, the understanding of both experimental and theoretical systematic errors is crucial. It will require full-fledged event generators, to simulate the processes of interest in great detail. The history of event generators shows that their development and improvement are ongoing processes taking place in parallel to the physics analysis by various experimental groups. The number of processes included in the generators has been increasing and the precision of their predictions has been being improved continuously. Our workshop aims at getting this process well under way for the spin physics program at RHIC, based on the fist development in this direction, SPHINX. The scope of the work includes: (1) update of the currently existing event generator by including the most recent parton parameterizations as a library and reflecting recent progress made for spin-independent generators, (2) implementation of new processes, especially parity violating effects in high energy pp collisions, (3) test of the currently available event generator by


    Charles L. Mader


    Full Text Available Lituya Bay, Alaska is a T-Shaped bay, 7 miles long and up to 2 miles wide. The two arms at the head of the bay, Gilbert and Crillon Inlets, are part of a trench along the Fairweather Fault. On July 8, 1958, an 7.5 Magnitude earthquake occurred along the Fairweather fault with an epicenter near Lituya Bay.A mega-tsunami wave was generated that washed out trees to a maximum altitude of 520 meters at the entrance of Gilbert Inlet. Much of the rest of the shoreline of the Bay was denuded by the tsunami from 30 to 200 meters altitude.In the previous study it was determined that if the 520 meter high run-up was 50 to 100 meters thick, the observed inundation in the rest of Lituya Bay could be numerically reproduced. It was also concluded that further studies would require full Navier-Stokes modeling similar to those required for asteroid generated tsunami waves.During the Summer of 2000, Hermann Fritz conducted experiments that reproduced the Lituya Bay 1958 event. The laboratory experiments indicated that the 1958 Lituya Bay 524 meter run-up on the spur ridge of Gilbert Inlet could be caused by a landslide impact.The Lituya Bay impact landslide generated tsunami was modeled with the full Navier- Stokes AMR Eulerian compressible hydrodynamic code called SAGE with includes the effect of gravity.

  10. A new multi-sensor approach to simulation assisted tsunami early warning

    Behrens, J.; Androsov, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Harig, S.; Klaschka, F.; Mentrup, L.


    A new tsunami forecasting method for near-field tsunami warning is presented. This method is applied in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, as part of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Center in Jakarta, Indonesia. The method employs a rigorous approach to minimize uncertainty in the assessment of tsunami hazard in the near-field. Multiple independent sensors are evaluated simultaneously in order to achieve an accurate estimation of coastal arrival times and wave heights within very short time after a submarine earthquake event. The method is validated employing a synthetic (simulated) tsunami event, and in hindcasting the minor tsunami following the Padang 30 September 2009 earthquake.

  11. Boussinesq Modeling of the 1975 Kitimat, British Columbia Landslide Tsunami

    Murty, T.; Watts, P.; Fullarton, M.; Grilli, S. T.; Kirby, J. T.


    Mass failures near the head of Kitimat fjord in British Columbia produced water waves that caused severe destruction of waterfront facilities. We revisit this event with the latest numerical models in order to better understand the geological and tsunamigenic processes involved. Mass failure began around low tide near Moon Bay, possibly on account of construction activities taking place there. Retrogressive failure along the fjord floor proceeded over the next several minutes, until it reached the steep fjord head just underneath the Kitimat River. A mass on the steep slope then failed during a single event that is best characterized as an underwater slide in glacial sediments, resulting in an observed depression of the water within the middle of the fjord. This slide was much larger in volume than the initial mass failure, and consequently much more tsunamigenic. The Kitimat event presents many processes that appear to apply to tsunamis in fjords elsewhere. We examine the larger slide volume and linear dimensions based on the available bathymetry. The slide scar is relatively well discerned and extends along the entire slope, in what can be termed a typical fashion. We reproduce tsunami generation of the larger slide with TOPICS and simulate tsunami propagation and inundation with the Boussinesq model FUNWAVE. Our simulation results reproduce the tsunami runup observations, as well as the regions of damage incurred along the shoreline. We also reproduce far-field wave amplitude observations from fishing boats located further south. The agreement between the modeling results and observations suggests that landslide tsunamis in fjords are becoming well-studied events that can yield consistent processes and that can be accurately modeled.


    Gabriel Alvarez


    - ministry of interior (ONEMI and hydrographic and oceanographic service of Chilean navy (SHOA. This article deals with experiences carried out in order to activate the warning systems, generating fictional telluric events and / or historical telluric events capable of triggering tsunami occurrences. It also proposes a working hypothesis that will allow monitoring the response of the state agencies, through the procedures established by law in the Republic of Chile. Our research delivers results that allow us to affirm that there are areas for hypothetical events that could generate tsunamis in which the To carry out this research we have used a software called STLAT based on simplified equations of the propagation of a tsunami wave, which has allowed us to get quick results. We have also carried out tests with official data which have shown that the alarm system was not able to respond appropriately to the 8.4 M Atico event that occurred in Peru in 2001.

  13. The 1992 Flores Earthquake Revisited: From Earthquake Source to Tsunami Inundation

    Latief, H.; Cummins, P. R.; Griffin, J.; Hossen, J.; Horspool, N.; Maher, N.; Fountain, L.; Hanung, R.; Rojali, A.; Kongko, W.


    The 1992 Flores earthquake (Mw=7.8) occurred on a back arc thrust near the island of Flores, Indonesia, causing widespread coastal uplift and subsidence, and generating a local tsunami with maximum runup height of over 25 meters that killed over 2,000 people. The event has been the subject of numerous publications on its various aspects, including the earthquake source mechanism determined from seismic data, and modelling of inundaiotn and tide gauge study data to study generation of the tsunami. To date, however, no studies have quantitatively assessed the constraints placed on the source mechanism by all the different types of data - seismic, geodetic and tsunami tide gauge waveforms and inundation. The opportunity to greatly improve the latter has presented itself recently through the availability of a high-resolution LiDAR data set for the topography along coastal strip near the earthquake. In this study we have undertaken a joint inversion of seismic and geodetic data available from this earthquake, and compared the results obtained to tsunami inundation and tide gauge data. We will present an assessment of what constraints the different data types place on the source mechanism, and how well these are compatible with the observed tsunami inundation results. Preliminary results suggest that the roughly 2 m inundation near Maumere is well explained, but the extreme tsunami run-up at Riang Kroko is not

  14. Tsunami focusing and leading wave height

    Kanoglu, Utku


    Field observations from tsunami events show that sometimes the maximum tsunami amplitude might not occur for the first wave, such as the maximum wave from the 2011 Japan tsunami reaching to Papeete, Tahiti as a fourth wave 72 min later after the first wave. This might mislead local authorities and give a wrong sense of security to the public. Recently, Okal and Synolakis (2016, Geophys. J. Int. 204, 719-735) discussed "the factors contributing to the sequencing of tsunami waves in the far field." They consider two different generation mechanisms through an axial symmetric source -circular plug; one, Le Mehaute and Wang's (1995, World Scientific, 367 pp.) formalism where irritational wave propagation is formulated in the framework of investigating tsunamis generated by underwater explosions and two, Hammack's formulation (1972, Ph.D. Dissertation, Calif. Inst. Tech., 261 pp., Pasadena) which introduces deformation at the ocean bottom and does not represent an immediate deformation of the ocean surface, i.e. time dependent ocean surface deformation. They identify the critical distance for transition from the first wave being largest to the second wave being largest. To verify sequencing for a finite length source, Okal and Synolakis (2016) is then used NOAA's validated and verified real time forecasting numerical model MOST (Titov and Synolakis, 1998, J. Waterw. Port Coast. Ocean Eng., 124, 157-171) through Synolakis et al. (2008, Pure Appl. Geophys. 165, 2197-2228). As a reference, they used the parameters of the 1 April 2014 Iquique, Chile earthquake over real bathymetry, variants of this source (small, big, wide, thin, and long) over a flat bathymetry, and 2010 Chile and 211 Japan tsunamis over both real and flat bathymetries to explore the influence of the fault parameters on sequencing. They identified that sequencing more influenced by the source width rather than the length. We extend Okal and Synolakis (2016)'s analysis to an initial N-wave form (Tadepalli

  15. Variations in City Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards in Oregon

    Wood, Nathan


    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to Oregon coastal communities. Although a potential tsunami-inundation zone from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake has been delineated, what is in this area and how communities have chosen to develop within it have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to describe tsunami-prone landscapes on the Oregon coast and to document city variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to the tsunami-inundation zone. Results indicate that the Oregon tsunami-inundation zone contains approximately 22,201 residents (four percent of the total population in the seven coastal counties), 14,857 employees (six percent of the total labor force), and 53,714 day-use visitors on average every day to coastal Oregon State Parks within the tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 1,829 businesses that generate approximately $1.9 billion in annual sales volume (seven and five percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $8.2 billion (12 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each facility, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, adult-residential-care facilities, child-day-care facilities, and schools), public venues (for example, religious organizations and libraries), and critical facilities (for example, police stations). Racial diversity of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone is low, with 96 percent identifying themselves as White, either alone or in combination with one or more race. Twenty-two percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 36 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 37 percent of the households are renter

  16. Maize transformation technology development for commercial event generation

    Qiudeng eQue


    Full Text Available Maize is an important food and feed crop in many countries. It is also one of the most important target crops for the application of biotechnology. Currently, there are more biotech traits available on the market in maize than in any other crop. Generation of transgenic events is a crucial step in the development of biotech traits. For commercial applications, a high throughput transformation system producing a large number of high quality events in an elite genetic background is highly desirable. There has been tremendous progress in Agrobacterium-mediated maize transformation since the publication of the Ishida et al. (1996 paper and the technology has been widely adopted for transgenic event production by many labs around the world. We will review general efforts in establishing efficient maize transformation technologies useful for transgenic event production in trait research and development. The review will also discuss transformation systems used for generating commercial maize trait events currently on the market. As the number of traits is increasing steadily and two or more modes of action are used to control key pests, new tools are needed to efficiently transform vectors containing multiple trait genes. We will review general guidelines for assembling binary vectors for commercial transformation. Approaches to increase transformation efficiency and gene expression of large gene stack vectors will be discussed. Finally, recent studies of targeted genome modification and transgene insertion using different site-directed nuclease technologies will be reviewed.

  17. Stratigraphic evidence for earthquakes and tsunamis on the west coast of South Andaman Island, India during the past 1000 years

    Malik, Javed N.; Banerjee, Chiranjib; Khan, Afzal; Johnson, Frango C.; Shishikura, Masanobu.; Satake, Kenji.; Singhvi, Ashok K.


    Stratigraphic records from west coast of South Andaman Island revealed evidence of three historical earthquakes and associated transoceanic tsunamis during past 1000 yrs, in addition to the Mw 9.3 tsunamigenic earthquake of 26 December, 2004. Our finding suggests that along with Sumatran arc segment the Andaman-Arakan segment is also capable of generating mega-subduction zone earthquakes and transoceanic tsunamis. To study the near sub-surface stratigraphic succession we excavated shallow trenches and obtained geoslices from two sites around Collinpur (sites 1 and 2). The exposed succession comprised 11 lithounits (Unit a - youngest and k - oldest) of alternating sequence of coarser units overlain by peaty soils and some of these are indicative of deposition during paleo-tsunami events. Event I that predated AD 800, and is marked by a 35-40 cm thick deposit of fine gravel to coarse sands along with broken shell fragments (Unit k). Event II dated around AD 660-800, is represented by 20-25 cm thick coarse sand and broken shell fragments (Unit i). Based on stratigraphic evidences of land-level changes, this event is attributed to a near source rupture along Andaman-Arakan segment, accompanied by a transoceanic tsunami. Event III, occurred around AD 1120-1300, is marked by a 50 cm thick sand deposit (Unit g). The 2004 tsunami resulted in deposition of 15 cm thick medium to coarse sand at the same location. We infer that the 2004 tsunami and Event III resulted in different styles of sedimentation at the same site. Four events at Collinpur along with the record of a subsidence event of AD 1679 from the east coast of Andaman, close-to, Port Blair (Malik et al., 2011), suggest that mega-subduction zone earthquakes and associated tsunamis recur at an interval of 300-500 years at variable locations along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone.

  18. Pliocene mass failure deposits mistaken as submarine tsunami backwash sediments - An example from Hornitos, northern Chile

    Spiske, Michaela; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Weiss, Robert


    In this study we question the former interpretation of a shallow marine backwash tsunami origin of a conspicuous Pliocene coarse clastic unit at Hornitos, northern Chile, and instead argue for a debris flow origin for this unit. We exclude a relation to a tsunami in general and to the Eltanin impact in particular. The observed deposit at Hornitos was not generated either directly (impact-triggered tsunami) or indirectly (submarine mass flow caused by seismic shaking) by an impact. Re-calculation of the alleged impact tsunami including consideration of the Van Dorn effect shows that an impact in the Southern Ocean did not cause a significant tsunami at Hornitos. Impact-related seismic shaking was not able to trigger slides several thousands of kilometers away because the Eltanin event was a deep sea-impact that did not create a crater. Additionally, the biostratigraphic age of 5.1-2.8 Ma of the associated La Portada Formation is not concurrent with the newly established age of 2.511 ± 0.07 Ma for the Eltanin impact. Instead, we argue for an origin of the conspicuous unit at Hornitos as a debris flow deposit caused by an earthquake in the Andean subduction zone in northern Chile. Our re-interpretation considers the local synsedimentary tectonic background, a comparison to recent submarine tsunami sediments, and recent examples of mass wasting deposits along the Chilean margin. The increased uplift during the Pliocene caused oversteepening of the coastal scarp and entailed a contemporaneous higher frequency of seismic events that triggered slope failures and cliff collapses. The coarse clastic unit at Hornitos represents an extraordinary, potentially tsunami-generating mass wasting event that is intercalated with mass wasting deposits on a smaller scale.

  19. Tsunami Modeling, Forecast and Warning (Invited)

    Satake, K.


    Tsunami is an infrequent natural hazard; however, once it happens, the effects are devastating and can be on global scale, as demonstrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Deterministic modeling of tsunami generation, propagation and coastal behavior has become popular, at least for earthquake tsunamis. Once the earthquake parameters are specified, tsunami arrival times, heights and current velocity at specific coastal points, and inland inundation area can be estimated. Such modeling has been used to make hazard maps usually by assuming largest possible earthquakes. However, smaller tsunamis than such a worst-case scenario occur more frequently. If the hazard maps are used incorrectly, it may lose reliability of coastal residents. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, similar to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, have been made for some coasts. The output is tsunami hazard curves, i.e. annual probability (or return period) for specified coastal tsunami heights. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and a large number of hazard curves are made for each branch of logic tress representing epistemic uncertainty. Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is used for design of critical facilities but not popularly used for disaster mitigation. Tsunami warning systems, which have been significantly developed since 2004, rely on seismic and sea-level monitoring and pre-made numerical simulation. Real-time data assimilation of offshore sea level measurements can be used to update the warning levels. Tsunami from the February 2010 Chilean earthquake was recorded on many tide gauges and ocean bottom pressure gauges in the Pacific, before it arrived on the Japanese coast about 22 hours after the earthquake. The tsunami height was up to 2 m on the Japanese coast, causing fishery damage amounting 60 million US dollars, but did not cause any human damage.

  20. Revisiting the 1761 Transatlantic Tsunami

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Wronna, Martin; Miranda, Jorge Miguel


    The tsunami catalogs of the Atlantic include two transatlantic tsunamis in the 18th century the well known 1st November 1755 and the 31st March 1761. The 31st March 1761 earthquake struck Portugal, Spain, and Morocco. The earthquake occurred around noontime in Lisbon alarming the inhabitants and throwing down ruins of the past 1st November 1755 earthquake. According to several sources, the earthquake was followed by a tsunami observed as far as Cornwall (United Kingdom), Cork (Ireland) and Barbados (Caribbean). The analysis of macroseismic information and its compatibility with tsunami travel time information led to a source area close to the Ampere Seamount with an estimated epicenter circa 34.5°N 13°W. The estimated magnitude of the earthquake was 8.5. In this study, we revisit the tsunami observations, and we include a report from Cadiz not used before. We use the results of the compilation of the multi-beam bathymetric data, that covers the area between 34°N - 38°N and 12.5°W - 5.5°W and use the recent tectonic map published for the Southwest Iberian Margin to select among possible source scenarios. Finally, we use a non-linear shallow water model that includes the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations in the spherical or Cartesian coordinate to compute tsunami waveforms and tsunami inundation and check the results against the historical descriptions to infer the source of the event. This study received funding from project ASTARTE- Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe a collaborative project Grant 603839, FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3

  1. Geological evidence of tsunamis and earthquakes at the Eastern Hellenic Arc: correlation with historical seismicity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Gerassimos Papadopoulos


    Full Text Available Sedimentary stratigraphy determined by trenching in Dalaman, south-western Turkey, revealed three sand layers at a distance of approximately 240 m from the shoreline and at elevations of +0.30, +0.55 and +0.90 cm. Storm surge action does not explain the features of these deposits that show instead typical characteristics of tsunami deposition. The sand layers correlate with historical tsunamis generated by large earthquakes which ruptured the eastern Hellenic Arc and Trench in 1303, 1481 and 1741. Accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of a wood sample from layer II indicated deposition in AD 1473±46, which fits the 1481 event. From an estimated average alluvium deposition rate of approximately 0.13 cm/year, layers I and III were dated at 1322 and 1724, which may represent the large 1303 and 1741 tsunamis. The geological record of the 1303 key event is very poor; therefore, sand layer I perhaps represents an important geological signature of the 1303 tsunami. However, the strong tsunami reported to have been generated by the 1609 earthquake is missing from Dalaman stratigraphy: this underlines the sensitivity of tsunami geological signatures to various local factors. The 1303 earthquake ruptured the trench between the islands of Crete and Rhodes. For the earthquakes of 1481, 1609 and 1741 we suggested that they were very likely generated in the Rhodes Abyssal Plain where sea depths of up to approximately 4200 m, together with the thrust component of seismotectonics, favor tsunami generation. Sand dykes directed upwards from layer I to layer II indicated that the 1481 earthquake triggered liquefaction of sand layer I. The results substantially widen our knowledge about the historical earthquake and tsunami activity in the eastern Mediterranean basin.

  2. Parallelization of events generation for data analysis techniques

    Lazzaro, A


    With the startup of the LHC experiments at CERN, the involved community is now focusing on the analysis of the collected data. The complexity of the data analyses will be a key factor for finding eventual new phenomena. For such a reason many data analysis tools have been developed in the last several years, which implement several data analysis techniques. Goal of these techniques is the possibility of discriminating events of interest and measuring parameters on a given input sample of events, which are themselves defined by several variables. Also particularly important is the possibility of repeating the determination of the parameters by applying the procedure on several simulated samples, which are generated using Monte Carlo techniques and the knowledge of the probability density functions of the input variables. This procedure achieves a better estimation of the results. Depending on the number of variables, complexity of their probability density functions, number of events, and number of sample to g...

  3. Development of Jacket Platform Tsunami Risk Rating System in Waters Offshore North Borneo

    HE Lee; MS Liew; NH Mardi; KL Na; Iraj Toloue; SK Wong


    This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3Mw seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US$25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

  4. Development of jacket platform tsunami risk rating system in waters offshore North Borneo

    Lee, H. E.; Liew, M. S.; Mardi, N. H.; Na, K. L.; Toloue, Iraj; Wong, S. K.


    This work details the simulation of tsunami waves generated by seaquakes in the Manila Trench and their effect on fixed oil and gas jacket platforms in waters offshore North Borneo. For this study, a four-leg living quarter jacket platform located in a water depth of 63m is modelled in SACS v5.3. Malaysia has traditionally been perceived to be safe from the hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis. Local design practices tend to neglect tsunami waves and include no such provisions. In 2004, a 9.3 M w seaquake occurred off the northwest coast of Aceh, which generated tsunami waves that caused destruction in Malaysia totalling US 25 million and 68 deaths. This event prompted an awareness of the need to study the reliability of fixed offshore platforms scattered throughout Malaysian waters. In this paper, we present a review of research on the seismicity of the Manila Trench, which is perceived to be high risk for Southeast Asia. From the tsunami numerical model TUNA-M2, we extract computer-simulated tsunami waves at prescribed grid points in the vicinity of the platforms in the region. Using wave heights as input, we simulate the tsunami using SACS v5.3 structural analysis software of offshore platforms, which is widely accepted by the industry. We employ the nonlinear solitary wave theory in our tsunami loading calculations for the platforms, and formulate a platform-specific risk quantification system. We then perform an intensive structural sensitivity analysis and derive a corresponding platform-specific risk rating model.

  5. The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

    Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia


    Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.


    James F. Lander


    Full Text Available The great (Mw 8.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of August 8, 1993, about 50 km to the east of Guam, has created renewed interest in the tsunami hazard for the island of Guam. We examine this hazard from two perspectives--historical and mechanistic. Guam has had only three tsunamis causing damage at more than one location--in 1849, 1892, and in 1993, and only two to six other locally-generated tsunamis which were observed on the island in the past 200 years. Five of these six events have low validities and may not be reports of true tsunami. On the other hand, dozens of storm surges related to typhoons have caused millions of dollars of damage on Guam. The island of Guam is located west of the Marianas Trench. The trench is caused by the subduction of old, cold, and dense lithosphere of the Pacific plate under the Philippine plate. Steeply dipping old material is unlikely to trigger tsunamis because (1 the two plates are decoupled and (2 the motion is too slow to allow large amounts of stress to build up before earthquakes occur, resulting in less violent earthquakes. A small section of the Marianas Trench near Guam, however, has shallow subduction. This is where the 1993 event occurred, and a quiet area south of this may be the site of a similar future tsunamigenic earthquake. Most of the damage from a local tsunami would occur on the relatively unpopulated east coast; the likelihood of a local tsunami from the west is minimal. However, a repeat of the 1848 tsunami with a southern source could affect both the east and west coasts. The 1993 earthquake occurred coincident with the passage of Typhoon Steve. We show that this may not be coincidental as there is a substantial statistical correlation between earthquakes and typhoons at Guam. The close encounter of a typhoon with Guam doubles the probability of an earthquake with magnitude greater than 5.0 occurring on that day.

  7. The SAFRR tsunami scenario-physical damage in California: Chapter E in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Porter, Keith; Byers, William; Dykstra, David; Lim, Amy; Lynett, Patrick; Ratliff, Jaime; Scawthorn, Charles; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick


    his chapter attempts to depict a single realistic outcome of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario in terms of physical damage to and recovery of various aspects of the built environment in California. As described elsewhere in this report, the tsunami is generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake seaward of the Alaska Peninsula on the Semidi Sector of the Alaska–Aleutian Subduction Zone, 495 miles southwest of Anchorage, at 11:50 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT) on Thursday March 27, 2014, and arriving at the California coast between 4:00 and 5:40 p.m. (depending on location) the same day. Although other tsunamis could have locally greater impact, this source represents a substantial threat to the state as a whole. One purpose of this chapter is to help operators and users of coastal assets throughout California to develop emergency plans to respond to a real tsunami. Another is to identify ways that operators or owners of these assets can think through options for reducing damage before a future tsunami. A third is to inform the economic analyses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario. And a fourth is to identify research needs to better understand the possible consequences of a tsunami on these assets. The asset classes considered here include the following: Piers, cargo, buildings, and other assets at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Large vessels in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Marinas and small craft Coastal buildings Roads and roadway bridges Rail, railway bridges, and rolling stock Agriculture Fire following tsunami Each asset class is examined in a subsection of this chapter. In each subsection, we generally attempt to offer a historical review of damage. We characterize and quantify the assets exposed to loss and describe the modes of damage that have been observed in past tsunamis or are otherwise deemed likely to occur in the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Where practical, we offer a mathematical model of the

  8. Towards a realistic event generator for in-medium signals

    Seck, Florian [TU Darmstadt (Germany); Collaboration: HADES-Collaboration


    The most important task of theoretical heavy-ion physics is to link experimental observables to the bulk properties and the microscopic structure of the different phases of strongly interacting matter. Until now the hadronic cocktails produced with the event generator Pluto for the HADES and CBM experiments only included a contribution from freeze-out ρ mesons modeled by a Breit-Wigner distribution around its pole mass. However as dileptons are radiated from the fireball during the whole time evolution, medium effects like the broadening of the ρ should also be included in the simulations. Calculations of the in-medium ρ spectral function by R. Rapp and J. Wambach demonstrate, that a large part of the in-medium ρ mesons feed into the mass region below the ρ/ω pole mass down to zero masses. The modular structure of Pluto makes it feasible to customize the event generator and incorporate models of in-medium physics, like the Rapp-Wambach spectral function, as plug-ins. For masses above 1 GeV/c{sup 2} we include emission due to multi-pion annihilation and due to QGP radiation. In this contribution first steps towards the implementation of such a plug-in into the event generator Pluto are presented.

  9. Simulation of space-borne tsunami detection using GNSS-Reflectometry applied to tsunamis in the Indian Ocean

    R. Stosius


    Full Text Available Within the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System project GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009, a feasibility study on a future tsunami detection system from space has been carried out. The Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R is an innovative way of using reflected GNSS signals for remote sensing, e.g. sea surface altimetry. In contrast to conventional satellite radar altimetry, multiple height measurements within a wide field of view can be made simultaneously. With a dedicated Low Earth Orbit (LEO constellation of satellites equipped with GNSS-R, densely spaced sea surface height measurements could be established to detect tsunamis. This simulation study compares the Walker and the meshed comb constellation with respect to their global reflection point distribution. The detection performance of various LEO constellation scenarios with GPS, GLONASS and Galileo as signal sources is investigated. The study concentrates on the detection performance for six historic tsunami events in the Indian Ocean generated by earthquakes of different magnitudes, as well as on different constellation types and orbit parameters. The GNSS-R carrier phase is compared with the PARIS or code altimetry approach. The study shows that Walker constellations have a much better reflection point distribution compared to the meshed comb constellation. Considering simulation assumptions and assuming technical feasibility it can be demonstrated that strong tsunamis with magnitudes (M ≥8.5 can be detected with certainty from any orbit altitude within 15–25 min by a 48/8 or 81/9 Walker constellation if tsunami waves of 20 cm or higher can be detected by space-borne GNSS-R. The carrier phase approach outperforms the PARIS altimetry approach especially at low orbit altitudes and for a low number of LEO satellites.

  10. Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Valdez

    Parsons, Tom; Geist, Eric L.; Ryan, Holly F.; Lee, Homa J.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Lynett, Patrick; Hart, Patrick E.; Sliter, Ray; Roland, Emily


    Like many subduction zone earthquakes, the deadliest aspects of the 1964 M = 9.2 Alaska earthquake were the tsunamis it caused. The worst of these were generated by local submarine landslides induced by the earthquake. These caused high runups, engulfing several coastal towns in Prince William Sound. In this paper, we study one of these cases in detail, the Port Valdez submarine landslide and tsunami. We combine eyewitness reports, preserved film, and careful posttsunami surveys with new geophysical data to inform numerical models for landslide tsunami generation. We review the series of events as recorded at Valdez old town and then determine the corresponding subsurface events that led to the tsunami. We build digital elevation models of part of the pretsunami and posttsunami fjord-head delta. Comparing them reveals a ~1500 m long region that receded 150 m to the east, which we interpret as the primary delta landslide source. Multibeam imagery and high-resolution seismic reflection data identify a ~400 m wide chute with hummocky deposits at its terminus, which may define the primary slide path. Using these elements we run hydrodynamic models of the landslide-driven tsunamis that match observations of current direction, maximum inundation, and wave height at Valdez old town. We speculate that failure conditions at the delta front may have been influenced by manmade changes in drainage patterns as well as the fast retreat of Valdez and other glaciers during the past century.

  11. Analysis of Tsunami Culture in Countries Affected by Recent Tsunamis

    Esteban, M.; Tsimopoulou, V.; Shibayama, T.; Mikami, T.; Ohira, K.


    Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004. Ne

  12. Consistent Estimates of Tsunami Energy Show Promise for Improved Early Warning

    Titov, V.; Song, Y. Tony; Tang, L.; Bernard, E. N.; Bar-Sever, Y.; Wei, Y.


    Early tsunami warning critically hinges on rapid determination of the tsunami hazard potential in real-time, before waves inundate critical coastlines. Tsunami energy can quickly characterize the destructive potential of generated waves. Traditional seismic analysis is inadequate to accurately predict a tsunami's energy. Recently, two independent approaches have been proposed to determine tsunami source energy: one inverted from the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) data during the tsunami propagation, and the other derived from the land-based coastal global positioning system (GPS) during tsunami generation. Here, we focus on assessing these two approaches with data from the March 11, 2011 Japanese tsunami. While the GPS approach takes into consideration the dynamic earthquake process, the DART inversion approach provides the actual tsunami energy estimation of the propagating tsunami waves; both approaches lead to consistent energy scales for previously studied tsunamis. Encouraged by these promising results, we examined a real-time approach to determine tsunami source energy by combining these two methods: first, determine the tsunami source from the globally expanding GPS network immediately after an earthquake for near-field early warnings; and then to refine the tsunami energy estimate from nearby DART measurements for improving forecast accuracy and early cancelations. The combination of these two real-time networks may offer an appealing opportunity for: early determination of the tsunami threat for the purpose of saving more lives, and early cancelation of tsunami warnings to avoid unnecessary false alarms.

  13. Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

    Song, Y. Tony


    A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground

  14. Computational Particle Physics for Event Generators and Data Analysis

    Perret-Gallix, Denis


    High-energy physics data analysis relies heavily on the comparison between experimental and simulated data as stressed lately by the Higgs search at LHC and the recent identification of a Higgs-like new boson. The first link in the full simulation chain is the event generation both for background and for expected signals. Nowadays event generators are based on the automatic computation of matrix element or amplitude for each process of interest. Moreover, recent analysis techniques based on the matrix element likelihood method assign probabilities for every event to belong to any of a given set of possible processes. This method originally used for the top mass measurement, although computing intensive, has shown its power at LHC to extract the new boson signal from the background. Serving both needs, the automatic calculation of matrix element is therefore more than ever of prime importance for particle physics. Initiated in the eighties, the techniques have matured for the lowest order calculations (tree-le...

  15. Tool for Generating Realistic Residential Hot Water Event Schedules: Preprint

    Hendron, B.; Burch, J.; Barker, G.


    The installed energy savings for advanced residential hot water systems can depend greatly on detailed occupant use patterns. Quantifying these patterns is essential for analyzing measures such as tankless water heaters, solar hot water systems with demand-side heat exchangers, distribution system improvements, and recirculation loops. This paper describes the development of an advanced spreadsheet tool that can generate a series of year-long hot water event schedules consistent with realistic probability distributions of start time, duration and flow rate variability, clustering, fixture assignment, vacation periods, and seasonality. This paper also presents the application of the hot water event schedules in the context of an integral-collector-storage solar water heating system in a moderate climate.

  16. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.


    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  17. How to learn and develop from both good and bad lessons- the 2011Tohoku tsunami case -

    Sugimoto, Megumi; Okazumi, Toshio


    The 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed Japan has repeated same mistakes in a long tsunami disaster history. After the disaster Japanese remember many old lessons and materials: an oral traditional evacuation method 'Tsunami TENDENKO' which is individual independent quick evacuation, a tsunami historical memorial stone "Don't construct houses below this stone to seaside" in Aneyoshi town Iwate prefecture, Namiwake-shrine naming from the story of protect people from tsunami in Sendai city, and so on. Tohoku area has created various tsunami historical cultures to descendent. Tohoku area had not had a tsunami disaster for 50 years after the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The 2010 Chilean tsunami damaged little fish industry. People gradually lost tsunami disaster awareness. At just the bad time the magnitude (M) 9 scale earthquake attacked Tohoku. It was for our generations an inexperienced scale disaster. People did not make use of the ancestor's lessons to survive. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami attacked just before 7 years ago. The magnitude scale is almost same as M 9 scale. Why didn't Tohoku people and Japanese tsunami experts make use of the lessons? Japanese has a character outside Japan. This lesson shows it is difficult for human being to learn from other countries. As for Three mile island accident case in US, it was same for Japan. To addition to this, there are similar types of living lessons among different hazards. For examples, nuclear power plantations problem occurred both the 2012 Hurricane Sandy in US and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Both local people were not informed about the troubles though Oyster creek nuclear power station case in US did not proceed seriously all. Tsunami and Hurricane are different hazard. Each exparts stick to their last. 1. It is difficult for human being to transfer living lessons through next generation over decades. 2. It is difficult for human being to forecast inexperienced events. 3. It is usually underestimated the danger because human being

  18. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka


    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  19. Advanced Planning for Tsunamis in California

    Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Larkin, D.; Reade, S.; Carnathan, D.; Davis, M.; Nicolini, T.; Johnson, L.; Boldt, E.; Tardy, A.


    The California Tsunami Program is comprised of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and the California Geological Survey (CGS) and funded through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The program works closely with the 20 coastal counties in California, as well as academic, and industry experts to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation in shoreline communities. Inundation maps depicting 'worst case' inundation modeled from plausible sources around the Pacific were released in 2009 and have provided a foundation for public evacuation and emergency response planning in California. Experience during recent tsunamis impacting the state (Japan 2011, Chile 2010, Samoa 2009) has brought to light the desire by emergency managers and decision makers for even more detailed information ahead of future tsunamis. A solution to provide enhanced information has been development of 'playbooks' to plan for a variety of expected tsunami scenarios. Elevation 'playbook' lines can be useful for partial tsunami evacuations when enough information about forecast amplitude and arrival times is available to coastal communities and there is sufficient time to make more educated decisions about who to evacuate for a given scenario or actual event. NOAA-issued Tsunami Alert Bulletins received in advance of a distant event will contain an expected wave height (a number) for each given section of coast. Provision of four elevation lines for possible inundation enables planning for different evacuation scenarios based on the above number potentially alleviating the need for an 'all or nothing' decision with regard to evacuation. Additionally an analytical tool called FASTER is being developed to integrate storm, tides, modeling errors, and local tsunami run-up potential with the forecasted tsunami amplitudes in real-time when a tsunami Alert is sent out. Both of these products will help

  20. Re-thinking the Distant Tsunami Hazard to Alaska

    Preller, C. C.; Petty, E. A.; Knight, W. R.; Curtis, J. C.; Albanese, S. P.


    The science of tsunami has created as many questions as it has answers for vulnerable areas like those in Alaska's coastal communities. How a tsunami might inundate is determined by a variety of event-unique factors that are difficult to accurately prepare for; near shore dynamics and local bathymetry guarantee a distinctive experience at every locality. The island of St. Paul, located in the middle of the Bering Sea, measured a significant tsunami during the Japanese event in 2011. Believing that the Aleutian Chain would minimize tsunami energy into the Bering Sea, this was an eye-opening observation. Real science gives us real answers. The only way to accurately understand the effect of a tsunami is to have a tsunami; a completely unpredictable event without a season. Over the last few years, there have been several large events. Assessing impacts from the Chilean tsunami of 2010 and the Japanese tsunami of 2011, as well as other events such as Samoa and Haiti, has offered a fine-tuning to tsunami understanding and modeling. Using observed amplitudes, tsunami history, oral stories, and improved static modeling techniques, the ability to access threat by community is becoming possible. Communities previously ranked on broad generalizations are now assessed more specifically with data and modeling, providing new insights to their threat ranking. The critical though complex task of preparedness for Alaska, the state with the most coast-line and the least road system, is expensive and difficult. Translating the potential effects to emergency managers is a vague undertaking depending on the possible scenarios considered. Our understanding, with fine tuning, is proving to be essential in our approach. The reanalysis of the distance tsunami threat determined by updated tsunami science gives local officials the opportunity to improve community preparedness and allow communities to allocate scarce resources wisely.; Japanese Tsunami measured at Saint Paul Island showing

  1. Assessing tsunami-induced groundwater salinization and its temporal change: a numerical modelling study on the Niijima Island, Japan

    Liu, Jiaqi; Tokunaga, Tomochika


    Groundwater is vulnerable to many natural hazards, including tsunami. As reported after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake, the generated massive tsunami inundations resulted in unexpected groundwater salinization in coastal areas. Water supply was strongly disturbed due to the significantly elevated salinity in groundwater. Supplying fresh water is one of the prioritized concerns in the immediate aftermath of disaster, and during long-term post-disaster reconstruction as well. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of tsunami on coastal groundwater system and provide guidelines on managing water resources in post-tsunami period. We selected the study area as the Niijima Island, a tsunami-prone area in Japan, which is under the risk of being attacked by a devastated tsunami with its wave height up to 30 m. A three-dimension (3-D) numerical model of the groundwater system on the Niijima Island was developed by using the simulation code FEFLOW which can handle both density- dependent groundwater flow and saturated-unsaturated flow processes. The model was justified by the measured water table data obtained from the field work in July, 2015. By using this model, we investigated saltwater intrusion and aquifer recovery process under different tsunami scenarios. Modelling results showed that saltwater could fully saturate the vadose zone and come into contact with groundwater table in just 10 mins. The 0.6 km2 of inundation area introduced salt mass equivalent to approximately 9×104 t of NaCl into the vadose zone. After the retreat of tsunami waves, the remained saltwater in vadose zone continuously intruded into the groundwater and dramatically salinized the aquifer up to about 10,000 mg/L. In the worst tsunami scenario, it took more than 10 years for the polluted aquifer to be entirely recovered by natural rainfall. Given that the groundwater is the only freshwater source on the Niijima Island, we can provide suggestions

  2. Tsunami characteristics and formation potential of sandy tsunami deposit in Sanriku Coast: implications from numerical modeling

    Sugawara, D.; Haraguchi, T.; Takahashi, T.


    Geological investigation of paleotsunami deposit is crucial for knowing the history and magnitude of tsunami events in the past. Among various kinds of grain sizes, sandy tsunami deposit has been best investigated by previous studies, because of its potential for identification in the sedimentary column. Many sandy tsunami deposits have been found from coastal plains, which have sandy beach and low-lying wetlands. However, sandy tsunami deposits in narrow valleys at rocky ria coast have rarely been found. It may be presumed that formation potential of sandy tsunami layer in the rocky coasts is generally lower than coastal plains, because of the absence of sandy beach, tsunami run-up on steeper slope and stronger return flow. In this presentation, characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake tsunami in Sanriku Coast, a continuous rocky ria coast located in the northeast Japan, is investigated based on numerical modeling. In addition, the formation potential of sandy tsunami deposit is also investigated based on numerical modeling of sediment transport. Preliminary result of tsunami hydrodynamics showed that the waveform and amplification of the tsunami are clearly affected by the local bathymetry, which is associated with submerged topography formed during the last glacial stage. Although the tsunami height in the offshore of each bay is around 8.0 m, the tsunami height at the bay head was increased in different way. The amplification factor at the bay head was typically 2.0 among most of V-shaped narrow embayments; meanwhile the amplification factor is much lower than 1.0 at some cases. The preliminary result of the modeling of sediment transport predicted huge amount of sediments may be suspended into the water column, given that sandy deposit is available there. Massive erosion and deposition of sea bottom sediments may commonly take place in the bays. However, formation of onshore tsunami deposit differs from each other. Whether the suspended sediments

  3. Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean.

    Rodriguez, J Alexis P; Fairén, Alberto G; Tanaka, Kenneth L; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R; Glines, Natalie


    It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains.

  4. Tsunami waves extensively resurfaced the shorelines of an early Martian ocean

    Rodriguez, J. Alexis P.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Zarroca, Mario; Linares, Rogelio; Platz, Thomas; Komatsu, Goro; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Yan, Jianguo; Gulick, Virginia; Higuchi, Kana; Baker, Victor R.; Glines, Natalie


    It has been proposed that ~3.4 billion years ago an ocean fed by enormous catastrophic floods covered most of the Martian northern lowlands. However, a persistent problem with this hypothesis is the lack of definitive paleoshoreline features. Here, based on geomorphic and thermal image mapping in the circum-Chryse and northwestern Arabia Terra regions of the northern plains, in combination with numerical analyses, we show evidence for two enormous tsunami events possibly triggered by bolide impacts, resulting in craters ~30 km in diameter and occurring perhaps a few million years apart. The tsunamis produced widespread littoral landforms, including run-up water-ice-rich and bouldery lobes, which extended tens to hundreds of kilometers over gently sloping plains and boundary cratered highlands, as well as backwash channels where wave retreat occurred on highland-boundary surfaces. The ice-rich lobes formed in association with the younger tsunami, showing that their emplacement took place following a transition into a colder global climatic regime that occurred after the older tsunami event. We conclude that, on early Mars, tsunamis played a major role in generating and resurfacing coastal terrains. PMID:27196957

  5. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.


    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  6. MARINE CONGLOMERATE AND REEF MEGACLASTS AT MAURITUS ISLAND: Evidences of a tsunami generated by a flank collapse of the PITON DE LA Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island?

    R. Paris


    Full Text Available Tsunamis related to volcano flank collapse are typically a high-magnitude, low frequency hazard for which evaluation and mitigation are difficult to address. In this short communication, we present field evidences of a large tsunami along the southern coast of Mauritius Island ca. 4400 years ago. Tsunami deposits described include both marine conglomerates and coral boulders up to 90 m3 (> 100 tons. The most probable origin of the tsunami is a flank collapse of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Réunion Island.

  7. Dispersive mudslide-induced tsunamis

    A. Rubino


    Full Text Available A nonlinear nested model for mudslide-induced tsunamis is proposed in which three phases of the life of the wave, i.e. the generation, far-field propagation and costal run-up are described by means of different mathematical models, that are coupled through appropriate matching procedures. The generation and run-up dynamics are simulated through a nonlinear shallow-water model with movable lateral boundaries: in the generation region two active layers are present, the lower one describing the slide descending on a sloping topography. For the intermediate phase, representing wave propagation far from the generation region, the hydrostatic assumption is not assumed as appropriate in general and, therefore, a nonlinear model allowing for weak phase dispersion, namely a Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation, is used. This choice is made in order to assess the relevance of dispersive features such as solitary waves and dispersive tails. It is shown that in some realistic circumstances dispersive mudslide-induced tsunami waves can be produced over relatively short, distances. In such cases the use of a hydrostatic model throughout the whole tsunami history turns out to give erroneous results. In particular, when solitary waves are generated during the tsunami propagation in the open sea, the resulting run-up process yields peculiar wave forms leading to amplified coastal inundations with respect to a mere hydrostatic context.

  8. Field survey of the 16 September 2015 Chile tsunami

    Lagos, Marcelo; Fritz, Hermann M.


    tsunami was characterized by rapid arrival within minutes in the nearfield requiring spontaneous self-evacuation as warning messages did not reach some of the hardest hit fishing villages prior to tsunami arrival. The absence of a massive tsunami outside of the 4th region may mislead evacuated residents in the adjacent 3rd and 5th regions of Chile in potential future events. This event poses significant challenges to community-based education raising tsunami awareness. The team educated residents about tsunami hazards since awareness programs are essential to save lives in locales at risk from near-field tsunamis.

  9. Tsunami disaster risk management capabilities in Greece

    Marios Karagiannis, Georgios; Synolakis, Costas


    System, with the Greek NWTC actively participating as a Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider. In addition, Greece designed and conducted the first tsunami exercise program in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism in 2011, which also considered the attrition of response capabilities by the earthquake generating the tsunami. These exercises have demonstrated the capability of the Greek NWTC to provide early warning to local civil protection authorities, but warning dissemination to the population remains an issue, especially during the summer season. However, there is no earthquake or tsunami national emergency operations plan, and we found that tsunami disaster planning and preparedness activities are rather limited at the local level. We acknowledge partial support by the project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe) FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839 to the Technical University of Crete.

  10. Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

    Yong, Wei; Newman, Andrew V.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Titov, Vasily V.; Tang, Liujuan


    Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

  11. Tsunamis and splay fault dynamics

    Wendt, J.; Oglesby, D.D.; Geist, E.L.


    The geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation, but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system. To gain insight into this problem, we use the 3D finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary/splay fault system. We use the resulting ground deformation as a time-dependent boundary condition for a 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation. We find that if me stress distribution is homogeneous, rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust. When a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust, rupture propagates to the splay faults, and produces a significantly larger tsunami man in the homogeneous case. The results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes, and also suggest mat dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami researcn. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements.

    Khachatryan, V; Sirunyan, A M; Tumasyan, A; Adam, W; Asilar, E; Bergauer, T; Brandstetter, J; Brondolin, E; Dragicevic, M; Erö, J; Friedl, M; Frühwirth, R; Ghete, V M; Hartl, C; Hörmann, N; Hrubec, J; Jeitler, M; Knünz, V; König, A; Krammer, M; Krätschmer, I; Liko, D; Matsushita, T; Mikulec, I; Rabady, D; Rahbaran, B; Rohringer, H; Schieck, J; Schöfbeck, R; Strauss, J; Treberer-Treberspurg, W; Waltenberger, W; Wulz, C-E; Mossolov, V; Shumeiko, N; Suarez Gonzalez, J; Alderweireldt, S; Cornelis, T; De Wolf, E A; Janssen, X; Knutsson, A; Lauwers, J; Luyckx, S; Van De Klundert, M; Van Haevermaet, H; Van Mechelen, P; Van Remortel, N; Van Spilbeeck, A; Abu Zeid, S; Blekman, F; D'Hondt, J; Daci, N; De Bruyn, I; Deroover, K; Heracleous, N; Keaveney, J; Lowette, S; Moreels, L; Olbrechts, A; Python, Q; Strom, D; Tavernier, S; Van Doninck, W; Van Mulders, P; Van Onsem, G P; Van Parijs, I; Barria, P; Brun, H; Caillol, C; Clerbaux, B; De Lentdecker, G; Fasanella, G; Favart, L; Grebenyuk, A; Karapostoli, G; Lenzi, T; Léonard, A; Maerschalk, T; Marinov, A; Perniè, L; Randle-Conde, A; Seva, T; Vander Velde, C; Yonamine, R; Vanlaer, P; Yonamine, R; Zenoni, F; Zhang, F; Adler, V; Beernaert, K; Benucci, L; Cimmino, A; Crucy, S; Dobur, D; Fagot, A; Garcia, G; Gul, M; Mccartin, J; Ocampo Rios, A A; Poyraz, D; Ryckbosch, D; Salva, S; Sigamani, M; Tytgat, M; Van Driessche, W; Yazgan, E; Zaganidis, N; Basegmez, S; Beluffi, C; Bondu, O; Brochet, S; Bruno, G; Caudron, A; Ceard, L; Da Silveira, G G; Delaere, C; Favart, D; Forthomme, L; Giammanco, A; Hollar, J; Jafari, A; Jez, P; Komm, M; Lemaitre, V; Mertens, A; Musich, M; Nuttens, C; Perrini, L; Pin, A; Piotrzkowski, K; Popov, A; Quertenmont, L; Selvaggi, M; Vidal Marono, M; Beliy, N; Hammad, G H; Júnior, W L Aldá; Alves, F L; Alves, G A; Brito, L; Correa Martins Junior, M; Hamer, M; Hensel, C; Moraes, A; Pol, M E; Rebello Teles, P; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E; Carvalho, W; Chinellato, J; Custódio, A; Da Costa, E M; De Jesus Damiao, D; De Oliveira Martins, C; Fonseca De Souza, S; Huertas Guativa, L M; Malbouisson, H; Matos Figueiredo, D; Mora Herrera, C; Mundim, L; Nogima, H; Prado Da Silva, W L; Santoro, A; Sznajder, A; Tonelli Manganote, E J; Vilela Pereira, A; Ahuja, S; Bernardes, C A; De Souza Santos, A; Dogra, S; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T R; Gregores, E M; Mercadante, P G; Moon, C S; Novaes, S F; Padula, Sandra S; Romero Abad, D; Ruiz Vargas, J C; Aleksandrov, A; Hadjiiska, R; Iaydjiev, P; Rodozov, M; Stoykova, S; Sultanov, G; Vutova, M; Dimitrov, A; Glushkov, I; Litov, L; Pavlov, B; Petkov, P; Ahmad, M; Bian, J G; Chen, G M; Chen, H S; Chen, M; Cheng, T; Du, R; Jiang, C H; Plestina, R; Romeo, F; Shaheen, S M; Spiezia, A; Tao, J; Wang, C; Wang, Z; Zhang, H; Asawatangtrakuldee, C; Ban, Y; Li, Q; Liu, S; Mao, Y; Qian, S J; Wang, D; Xu, Z; Avila, C; Cabrera, A; Chaparro Sierra, L F; Florez, C; Gomez, J P; Gomez Moreno, B; Sanabria, J C; Godinovic, N; Lelas, D; Puljak, I; Ribeiro Cipriano, P M; Antunovic, Z; Kovac, M; Brigljevic, V; Kadija, K; Luetic, J; Micanovic, S; Sudic, L; Attikis, A; Mavromanolakis, G; Mousa, J; Nicolaou, C; Ptochos, F; Razis, P A; Rykaczewski, H; Bodlak, M; Finger, M; Finger, M; Abdelalim, A A; Awad, A; Mahrous, A; Mohammed, Y; Radi, A; Calpas, B; Kadastik, M; Murumaa, M; Raidal, M; Tiko, A; Veelken, C; Eerola, P; Pekkanen, J; Voutilainen, M; Härkönen, J; Karimäki, V; Kinnunen, R; Lampén, T; Lassila-Perini, K; Lehti, S; Lindén, T; Luukka, P; Mäenpää, T; Peltola, T; Tuominen, E; Tuominiemi, J; Tuovinen, E; Wendland, L; Talvitie, J; Tuuva, T; Besancon, M; Couderc, F; Dejardin, M; Denegri, D; Fabbro, B; Faure, J L; Favaro, C; Ferri, F; Ganjour, S; Givernaud, A; Gras, P; Hamel de Monchenault, G; Jarry, P; Locci, E; Machet, M; Malcles, J; Rander, J; Rosowsky, A; Titov, M; Zghiche, A; Antropov, I; Baffioni, S; Beaudette, F; Busson, P; Cadamuro, L; Chapon, E; Charlot, C; Dahms, T; Davignon, O; Filipovic, N; Granier de Cassagnac, R; Jo, M; Lisniak, S; Mastrolorenzo, L; Miné, P; Naranjo, I N; Nguyen, M; Ochando, C; Ortona, G; Paganini, P; Pigard, P; Regnard, S; Salerno, R; Sauvan, J B; Sirois, Y; Strebler, T; Yilmaz, Y; Zabi, A; Agram, J-L; Andrea, J; Aubin, A; Bloch, D; Brom, J-M; Buttignol, M; Chabert, E C; Chanon, N; Collard, C; Conte, E; Coubez, X; Fontaine, J-C; Gelé, D; Goerlach, U; Goetzmann, C; Le Bihan, A-C; Merlin, J A; Skovpen, K; Van Hove, P; Gadrat, S; Beauceron, S; Bernet, C; Boudoul, G; Bouvier, E; Carrillo Montoya, C A; Chierici, R; Contardo, D; Courbon, B; Depasse, P; El Mamouni, H; Fan, J; Fay, J; Gascon, S; Gouzevitch, M; Ille, B; Lagarde, F; Laktineh, I B; Lethuillier, M; Mirabito, L; Pequegnot, A L; Perries, S; Ruiz Alvarez, J D; Sabes, D; Sgandurra, L; Sordini, V; Vander Donckt, M; Verdier, P; Viret, S; Toriashvili, T; Lomidze, D; Autermann, C; Beranek, S; Edelhoff, M; Feld, L; Heister, A; Kiesel, M K; Klein, K; Lipinski, M; Ostapchuk, A; Preuten, M; Raupach, F; Schael, S; Schulte, J F; Verlage, T; Weber, H; Wittmer, B; Zhukov, V; Ata, M; Brodski, M; Dietz-Laursonn, E; Duchardt, D; Endres, M; Erdmann, M; Erdweg, S; Esch, T; Fischer, R; Güth, A; Hebbeker, T; Heidemann, C; Hoepfner, K; Knutzen, S; Kreuzer, P; Merschmeyer, M; Meyer, A; Millet, P; Olschewski, M; Padeken, K; Papacz, P; Pook, T; Radziej, M; Reithler, H; Rieger, M; Scheuch, F; Sonnenschein, L; Teyssier, D; Thüer, S; Cherepanov, V; Erdogan, Y; Flügge, G; Geenen, H; Geisler, M; Hoehle, F; Kargoll, B; Kress, T; Kuessel, Y; Künsken, A; Lingemann, J; Nehrkorn, A; Nowack, A; Nugent, I M; Pistone, C; Pooth, O; Stahl, A; Aldaya Martin, M; Asin, I; Bartosik, N; Behnke, O; Behrens, U; Bell, A J; Borras, K; Burgmeier, A; Campbell, A; Choudhury, S; Costanza, F; Diez Pardos, C; Dolinska, G; Dooling, S; Dorland, T; Eckerlin, G; Eckstein, D; Eichhorn, T; Flucke, G; Gallo, E; Garcia, J Garay; Geiser, A; Gizhko, A; Gunnellini, P; Hauk, J; Hempel, M; Jung, H; Kalogeropoulos, A; Karacheban, O; Kasemann, M; Katsas, P; Kieseler, J; Kleinwort, C; Korol, I; Lange, W; Leonard, J; Lipka, K; Lobanov, A; Lohmann, W; Mankel, R; Marfin, I; Melzer-Pellmann, I-A; Meyer, A B; Mittag, G; Mnich, J; Mussgiller, A; Naumann-Emme, S; Nayak, A; Ntomari, E; Perrey, H; Pitzl, D; Placakyte, R; Raspereza, A; Roland, B; Sahin, M Ö; Saxena, P; Schoerner-Sadenius, T; Schröder, M; Seitz, C; Spannagel, S; Trippkewitz, K D; Walsh, R; Wissing, C; Blobel, V; Centis Vignali, M; Draeger, A R; Erfle, J; Garutti, E; Goebel, K; Gonzalez, D; Görner, M; Haller, J; Hoffmann, M; Höing, R S; Junkes, A; Klanner, R; Kogler, R; Kovalchuk, N; Lapsien, T; Lenz, T; Marchesini, I; Marconi, D; Meyer, M; Nowatschin, D; Ott, J; Pantaleo, F; Peiffer, T; Perieanu, A; Pietsch, N; Poehlsen, J; Rathjens, D; Sander, C; Scharf, C; Schettler, H; Schleper, P; Schlieckau, E; Schmidt, A; Schwandt, J; Sola, V; Stadie, H; Steinbrück, G; Tholen, H; Troendle, D; Usai, E; Vanelderen, L; Vanhoefer, A; Vormwald, B; Barth, C; Baus, C; Berger, J; Böser, C; Butz, E; Chwalek, T; Colombo, F; De Boer, W; Descroix, A; Dierlamm, A; Fink, S; Frensch, F; Friese, R; Giffels, M; Gilbert, A; Haitz, D; Hartmann, F; Heindl, S M; Husemann, U; Katkov, I; Kornmayer, A; Lobelle Pardo, P; Maier, B; Mildner, H; Mozer, M U; Müller, T; Müller, Th; Plagge, M; Quast, G; Rabbertz, K; Röcker, S; Roscher, F; Sieber, G; Simonis, H J; Stober, F M; Ulrich, R; Wagner-Kuhr, J; Wayand, S; Weber, M; Weiler, T; Williamson, S; Wöhrmann, C; Wolf, R; Anagnostou, G; Daskalakis, G; Geralis, T; Giakoumopoulou, V A; Kyriakis, A; Loukas, D; Psallidas, A; Topsis-Giotis, I; Agapitos, A; Kesisoglou, S; Panagiotou, A; Saoulidou, N; Tziaferi, E; Evangelou, I; Flouris, G; Foudas, C; Kokkas, P; Loukas, N; Manthos, N; Papadopoulos, I; Paradas, E; Strologas, J; Bencze, G; Hajdu, C; Hazi, A; Hidas, P; Horvath, D; Sikler, F; Veszpremi, V; Vesztergombi, G; Zsigmond, A J; Beni, N; Czellar, S; Karancsi, J; Molnar, J; Szillasi, Z; Bartók, M; Makovec, A; Raics, P; Trocsanyi, Z L; Ujvari, B; Mal, P; Mandal, K; Sahoo, D K; Sahoo, N; Swain, S K; Bansal, S; Beri, S B; Bhatnagar, V; Chawla, R; Gupta, R; Bhawandeep, U; Kalsi, A K; Kaur, A; Kaur, M; Kumar, R; Mehta, A; Mittal, M; Singh, J B; Walia, G; Kumar, Ashok; Bhardwaj, A; Choudhary, B C; Garg, R B; Kumar, A; Malhotra, S; Naimuddin, M; Nishu, N; Ranjan, K; Sharma, R; Sharma, V; Bhattacharya, S; Chatterjee, K; Dey, S; Dutta, S; Jain, Sa; Majumdar, N; Modak, A; Mondal, K; Mukherjee, S; Mukhopadhyay, S; Roy, A; Roy, D; Roy Chowdhury, S; Sarkar, S; Sharan, M; Abdulsalam, A; Chudasama, R; Dutta, D; Jha, V; Kumar, V; Mohanty, A K; Pant, L M; Shukla, P; Topkar, A; Aziz, T; Banerjee, S; Bhowmik, S; Chatterjee, R M; Dewanjee, R K; Dugad, S; Ganguly, S; Ghosh, S; Guchait, M; Gurtu, A; Kole, G; Kumar, S; Mahakud, B; Maity, M; Majumder, G; Mazumdar, K; Mitra, S; Mohanty, G B; Parida, B; Sarkar, T; Sur, N; Sutar, B; Wickramage, N; Chauhan, S; Dube, S; Kapoor, A; Kothekar, K; Sharma, S; Bakhshiansohi, H; Behnamian, H; Etesami, S M; Fahim, A; Goldouzian, R; Khakzad, M; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M; Naseri, M; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, F; Safarzadeh, B; Zeinali, M; Felcini, M; Grunewald, M; Abbrescia, M; Calabria, C; Caputo, C; Colaleo, A; Creanza, D; Cristella, L; De Filippis, N; De Palma, M; Fiore, L; Iaselli, G; Maggi, G; Miniello, G; Maggi, M; My, S; Nuzzo, S; Pompili, A; Pugliese, G; Radogna, R; Ranieri, A; Selvaggi, G; Silvestris, L; Venditti, R; Verwilligen, P; Abbiendi, G; Battilana, C; Benvenuti, A C; Bonacorsi, D; Braibant-Giacomelli, S; Brigliadori, L; Campanini, R; Capiluppi, P; Castro, A; Cavallo, F R; Chhibra, S S; Codispoti, G; Cuffiani, M; Dallavalle, G M; Fabbri, F; Fanfani, A; Fasanella, D; Giacomelli, P; Grandi, C; Guiducci, L; Marcellini, S; Masetti, G; Montanari, A; Navarria, F L; Perrotta, A; Rossi, A M; Primavera, F; Rovelli, T; Siroli, G P; Tosi, N; Travaglini, R; Cappello, G; Chiorboli, M; Costa, S; Mattia, A Di; Giordano, F; Potenza, R; Tricomi, A; Tuve, C; Barbagli, G; Ciulli, V; Civinini, C; D'Alessandro, R; Focardi, E; Gonzi, S; Gori, V; Lenzi, P; Meschini, M; Paoletti, S; Sguazzoni, G; Tropiano, A; Viliani, L; Benussi, L; Bianco, S; Fabbri, F; Piccolo, D; Primavera, F; Calvelli, V; Ferro, F; Lo Vetere, M; Monge, M R; Robutti, E; Tosi, S; Brianza, L; Dinardo, M E; Fiorendi, S; Gennai, S; Gerosa, R; Ghezzi, A; Govoni, P; Malvezzi, S; Manzoni, R A; Marzocchi, B; Menasce, D; Moroni, L; Paganoni, M; Pedrini, D; Ragazzi, S; Redaelli, N; Tabarelli de Fatis, T; Buontempo, S; Cavallo, N; Di Guida, S; Esposito, M; Fabozzi, F; Iorio, A O M; Lanza, G; Lista, L; Meola, S; Merola, M; Paolucci, P; Sciacca, C; Thyssen, F; Azzi, P; Bacchetta, N; Benato, L; Bisello, D; Boletti, A; Branca, A; Carlin, R; Checchia, P; Dall'Osso, M; Dorigo, T; Dosselli, U; Fantinel, S; Fanzago, F; Gasparini, F; Gasparini, U; Gozzelino, A; Kanishchev, K; Lacaprara, S; Margoni, M; Meneguzzo, A T; Pazzini, J; Pozzobon, N; Ronchese, P; Simonetto, F; Torassa, E; Tosi, M; Zanetti, M; Zotto, P; Zucchetta, A; Braghieri, A; Magnani, A; Montagna, P; Ratti, S P; Re, V; Riccardi, C; Salvini, P; Vai, I; Vitulo, P; Alunni Solestizi, L; Bilei, G M; Ciangottini, D; Fanò, L; Lariccia, P; Mantovani, G; Menichelli, M; Saha, A; Santocchia, A; Androsov, K; Azzurri, P; Bagliesi, G; Bernardini, J; Boccali, T; Castaldi, R; Ciocci, M A; Dell'Orso, R; Donato, S; Fedi, G; Fiori, F; Foà, L; Giassi, A; Grippo, M T; Ligabue, F; Lomtadze, T; Martini, L; Messineo, A; Palla, F; Rizzi, A; Savoy-Navarro, A; Serban, A T; Spagnolo, P; Tenchini, R; Tonelli, G; Venturi, A; Verdini, P G; Barone, L; Cavallari, F; D'imperio, G; Del Re, D; Diemoz, M; Gelli, S; Jorda, C; Longo, E; Margaroli, F; Meridiani, P; Organtini, G; Paramatti, R; Preiato, F; Rahatlou, S; Rovelli, C; Santanastasio, F; Traczyk, P; Amapane, N; Arcidiacono, R; Argiro, S; Arneodo, M; Bellan, R; Biino, C; Cartiglia, N; Costa, M; Covarelli, R; Degano, A; Demaria, N; Finco, L; Kiani, B; Mariotti, C; Maselli, S; Migliore, E; Monaco, V; Monteil, E; Obertino, M M; Pacher, L; Pastrone, N; Pelliccioni, M; Pinna Angioni, G L; Ravera, F; Potenza, A; Romero, A; Ruspa, M; Sacchi, R; Solano, A; Staiano, A; Belforte, S; Candelise, V; Casarsa, M; Cossutti, F; Della Ricca, G; Gobbo, B; La Licata, C; Marone, M; Schizzi, A; Zanetti, A; Kropivnitskaya, T A; Nam, S K; Kim, D H; Kim, G N; Kim, M S; Kim, M S; Kong, D J; Lee, S; Oh, Y D; Sakharov, A; Son, D C; Brochero Cifuentes, J A; Kim, H; Kim, T J; Song, S; Choi, S; Go, Y; Gyun, D; Hong, B; Kim, H; Kim, Y; Lee, B; Lee, K; Lee, K S; Lee, S; Lee, S; Park, S K; Roh, Y; Yoo, H D; Choi, M; Kim, H; Kim, J H; Lee, J S H; Park, I C; Ryu, G; Ryu, M S; Choi, Y; Goh, J; Kim, D; Kwon, E; Lee, J; Yu, I; Dudenas, V; Juodagalvis, A; Vaitkus, J; Ahmed, I; Ibrahim, Z A; Komaragiri, J R; Md Ali, M A B; Mohamad Idris, F; Wan Abdullah, W A T; Yusli, M N; Wan Abdullah, W A T; Casimiro Linares, E; Castilla-Valdez, H; De La Cruz-Burelo, E; Heredia-De La Cruz, I; Hernandez-Almada, A; Lopez-Fernandez, R; Sanchez-Hernandez, A; Carrillo Moreno, S; Vazquez Valencia, F; Pedraza, I; Salazar Ibarguen, H A; Morelos Pineda, A; Krofcheck, D; Butler, P H; Ahmad, A; Ahmad, M; Hassan, Q; Hoorani, H R; Khan, W A; Khurshid, T; Shoaib, M; Bialkowska, H; Bluj, M; Boimska, B; Frueboes, T; Górski, M; Kazana, M; Nawrocki, K; Romanowska-Rybinska, K; Szleper, M; Zalewski, P; Brona, G; Bunkowski, K; Byszuk, A; Doroba, K; Kalinowski, A; Konecki, M; Krolikowski, J; Misiura, M; Olszewski, M; Walczak, M; Bargassa, P; Da Cruz E Silva, C Beir Ao; Di Francesco, A; Faccioli, P; Parracho, P G Ferreira; Gallinaro, M; Leonardo, N; Lloret Iglesias, L; Nguyen, F; Rodrigues Antunes, J; Seixas, J; Toldaiev, O; Vadruccio, D; Varela, J; Vischia, P; Afanasiev, S; Bunin, P; Gavrilenko, M; Golutvin, I; Gorbunov, I; Kamenev, A; Karjavin, V; Konoplyanikov, V; Lanev, A; Malakhov, A; Matveev, V; Moisenz, P; Palichik, V; Perelygin, V; Savina, M; Shmatov, S; Shulha, S; Smirnov, V; Zarubin, A; Golovtsov, V; Ivanov, Y; Kim, V; Kuznetsova, E; Levchenko, P; Murzin, V; Oreshkin, V; Smirnov, I; Sulimov, V; Uvarov, L; Vavilov, S; Vorobyev, A; Andreev, Yu; Dermenev, A; Gninenko, S; Golubev, N; Karneyeu, A; Kirsanov, M; Krasnikov, N; Pashenkov, A; Tlisov, D; Toropin, A; Epshteyn, V; Gavrilov, V; Lychkovskaya, N; Popov, V; Pozdnyakov, L; Safronov, G; Spiridonov, A; Vlasov, E; Zhokin, A; Bylinkin, A; Andreev, V; Azarkin, M; Dremin, I; Kirakosyan, M; Leonidov, A; Mesyats, G; Rusakov, S V; Baskakov, A; Belyaev, A; Boos, E; Dubinin, M; Dudko, L; Ershov, A; Gribushin, A; Klyukhin, V; Kodolova, O; Lokhtin, I; Myagkov, I; Obraztsov, S; Petrushanko, S; Savrin, V; Snigirev, A; Azhgirey, I; Bayshev, I; Bitioukov, S; Kachanov, V; Kalinin, A; Konstantinov, D; Krychkine, V; Petrov, V; Ryutin, R; Sobol, A; Tourtchanovitch, L; Troshin, S; Tyurin, N; Uzunian, A; Volkov, A; Adzic, P; Cirkovic, P; Milosevic, J; Rekovic, V; Alcaraz Maestre, J; Battilana, C; Calvo, E; Cerrada, M; Chamizo Llatas, M; Colino, N; De La Cruz, B; Delgado Peris, A; Escalante Del Valle, A; Fernandez Bedoya, C; Ramos, J P Fernández; Flix, J; Fouz, M C; Garcia-Abia, P; Gonzalez Lopez, O; Goy Lopez, S; Hernandez, J M; Josa, M I; Navarro De Martino, E; Yzquierdo, A Pérez-Calero; Puerta Pelayo, J; Quintario Olmeda, A; Redondo, I; Romero, L; Santaolalla, J; Soares, M S; Albajar, C; de Trocóniz, J F; Missiroli, M; Moran, D; Cuevas, J; Fernandez Menendez, J; Folgueras, S; Gonzalez Caballero, I; Palencia Cortezon, E; Vizan Garcia, J M; Cabrillo, I J; Calderon, A; Castiñeiras De Saa, J R; De Castro Manzano, P; Fernandez, M; Garcia-Ferrero, J; Gomez, G; Lopez Virto, A; Marco, J; Marco, R; Martinez Rivero, C; Matorras, F; Piedra Gomez, J; Rodrigo, T; Rodríguez-Marrero, A Y; Ruiz-Jimeno, A; Scodellaro, L; Trevisani, N; Vila, I; Vilar Cortabitarte, R; Abbaneo, D; Auffray, E; Auzinger, G; Bachtis, M; Baillon, P; Ball, A H; Barney, D; Benaglia, A; Bendavid, J; Benhabib, L; Benitez, J F; Berruti, G M; Bloch, P; Bocci, A; Bonato, A; Botta, C; Breuker, H; Camporesi, T; Castello, R; Cerminara, G; D'Alfonso, M; d'Enterria, D; Dabrowski, A; Daponte, V; David, A; De Gruttola, M; De Guio, F; De Roeck, A; De Visscher, S; Di Marco, E; Dobson, M; Dordevic, M; Dorney, B; du Pree, T; Duggan, D; Dünser, M; Dupont, N; Elliott-Peisert, A; Franzoni, G; Fulcher, J; Funk, W; Gigi, D; Gill, K; Giordano, D; Girone, M; Glege, F; Guida, R; Gundacker, S; Guthoff, M; Hammer, J; Harris, P; Hegeman, J; Innocente, V; Janot, P; Kirschenmann, H; Kortelainen, M J; Kousouris, K; Krajczar, K; Lecoq, P; Lourenço, C; Lucchini, M T; Magini, N; Malgeri, L; Mannelli, M; Martelli, A; Masetti, L; Meijers, F; Mersi, S; Meschi, E; Moortgat, F; Morovic, S; Mulders, M; Nemallapudi, M V; Neugebauer, H; Orfanelli, S; Orsini, L; Pape, L; Perez, E; Peruzzi, M; Petrilli, A; Petrucciani, G; Pfeiffer, A; Piparo, D; Racz, A; Reis, T; Rolandi, G; Rovere, M; Ruan, M; Sakulin, H; Schäfer, C; Schwick, C; Seidel, M; Sharma, A; Silva, P; Simon, M; Sphicas, P; Steggemann, J; Stieger, B; Stoye, M; Takahashi, Y; Treille, D; Triossi, A; Tsirou, A; Veres, G I; Wardle, N; Wöhri, H K; Zagozdzinska, A; Zeuner, W D; Bertl, W; Deiters, K; Erdmann, W; Horisberger, R; Ingram, Q; Kaestli, H C; Kotlinski, D; Langenegger, U; Renker, D; Rohe, T; Bachmair, F; Bäni, L; Bianchini, L; Casal, B; Dissertori, G; Dittmar, M; Donegà, M; Eller, P; Grab, C; Heidegger, C; Hits, D; Hoss, J; Kasieczka, G; Lustermann, W; Mangano, B; Marionneau, M; Martinez Ruiz Del Arbol, P; Masciovecchio, M; Meister, D; Micheli, F; Musella, P; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Pandolfi, F; Pata, J; Pauss, F; Perrozzi, L; Quittnat, M; Rossini, M; Starodumov, A; Takahashi, M; Tavolaro, V R; Theofilatos, K; Wallny, R; Aarrestad, T K; Amsler, C; Caminada, L; Canelli, M F; Chiochia, V; De Cosa, A; Galloni, C; Hinzmann, A; Hreus, T; Kilminster, B; Lange, C; Ngadiuba, J; Pinna, D; Robmann, P; Ronga, F J; Salerno, D; Yang, Y; Cardaci, M; Chen, K H; Doan, T H; Jain, Sh; Khurana, R; Konyushikhin, M; Kuo, C M; Lin, W; Lu, Y J; Yu, S S; Kumar, Arun; Bartek, R; Chang, P; Chang, Y H; Chao, Y; Chen, K F; Chen, P H; Dietz, C; Fiori, F; Grundler, U; Hou, W-S; Hsiung, Y; Liu, Y F; Lu, R-S; Miñano Moya, M; Petrakou, E; Tsai, J F; Tzeng, Y M; Asavapibhop, B; Kovitanggoon, K; Singh, G; Srimanobhas, N; Suwonjandee, N; Adiguzel, A; Bakirci, M N; Cerci, S; Demiroglu, Z S; Dozen, C; Eskut, E; Gecit, F H; Girgis, S; Gokbulut, G; Guler, Y; Guler, Y; Gurpinar, E; Hos, I; Kangal, E E; Onengut, G; Ozcan, M; Ozdemir, K; Polatoz, A; Sunar Cerci, D; Topakli, H; Vergili, M; Zorbilmez, C; Akin, I V; Bilin, B; Bilmis, S; Isildak, B; Karapinar, G; Yalvac, M; Zeyrek, M; Gülmez, E; Kaya, M; Kaya, O; Yetkin, E A; Yetkin, T; Cakir, A; Cankocak, K; Sen, S; Vardarlı, F I; Grynyov, B; Levchuk, L; Sorokin, P; Aggleton, R; Ball, F; Beck, L; Brooke, J J; Clement, E; Cussans, D; Flacher, H; Goldstein, J; Grimes, M; Heath, G P; Heath, H F; Jacob, J; Kreczko, L; Lucas, C; Meng, Z; Newbold, D M; Paramesvaran, S; Poll, A; Sakuma, T; Seif El Nasr-Storey, S; Senkin, S; Smith, D; Smith, V J; Bell, K W; Belyaev, A; Brew, C; Brown, R M; Calligaris, L; Cieri, D; Cockerill, D J A; Coughlan, J A; Harder, K; Harper, S; Olaiya, E; Petyt, D; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C H; Thea, A; Tomalin, I R; Williams, T; Worm, S D; Baber, M; Bainbridge, R; Buchmuller, O; Bundock, A; Burton, D; Casasso, S; Citron, M; Colling, D; Corpe, L; Cripps, N; Dauncey, P; Davies, G; De Wit, A; Della Negra, M; Dunne, P; Elwood, A; Elwood, A; Ferguson, W; Futyan, D; Hall, G; Iles, G; Kenzie, M; Lane, R; Lucas, R; Lyons, L; Magnan, A-M; Malik, S; Nash, J; Nikitenko, A; Pela, J; Pesaresi, M; Petridis, K; Raymond, D M; Richards, A; Rose, A; Seez, C; Tapper, A; Uchida, K; Vazquez Acosta, M; Virdee, T; Zenz, S C; Cole, J E; Hobson, P R; Khan, A; Kyberd, P; Leggat, D; Leslie, D; Reid, I D; Symonds, P; Teodorescu, L; Turner, M; Borzou, A; Call, K; Dittmann, J; Hatakeyama, K; Liu, H; Pastika, N; Scarborough, T; Wu, Z; Charaf, O; Cooper, S I; Henderson, C; Rumerio, P; Arcaro, D; Avetisyan, A; Bose, T; Fantasia, C; Gastler, D; Lawson, P; Rankin, D; Richardson, C; Rohlf, J; St John, J; Sulak, L; Zou, D; Alimena, J; Berry, E; Bhattacharya, S; Cutts, D; Dhingra, N; Ferapontov, A; Garabedian, A; Hakala, J; Heintz, U; Laird, E; Landsberg, G; Mao, Z; Narain, M; Piperov, S; Sagir, S; Syarif, R; Breedon, R; Breto, G; De La Barca Sanchez, M Calderon; Chauhan, S; Chertok, M; Conway, J; Conway, R; Cox, P T; Erbacher, R; Funk, G; Gardner, M; Ko, W; Lander, R; Mulhearn, M; Pellett, D; Pilot, J; Ricci-Tam, F; Shalhout, S; Smith, J; Squires, M; Stolp, D; Tripathi, M; Wilbur, S; Yohay, R; Bravo, C; Cousins, R; Everaerts, P; Farrell, C; Florent, A; Hauser, J; Ignatenko, M; Saltzberg, D; Schnaible, C; Valuev, V; Weber, M; Burt, K; Clare, R; Ellison, J; Gary, J W; Hanson, G; Heilman, J; Ivova Paneva, M; Jandir, P; Kennedy, E; Lacroix, F; Long, O R; Luthra, A; Malberti, M; Negrete, M Olmedo; Shrinivas, A; Wei, H; Wimpenny, S; Yates, B R; Branson, J G; Cerati, G B; Cittolin, S; D'Agnolo, R T; Derdzinski, M; Holzner, A; Kelley, R; Klein, D; Letts, J; Macneill, I; Olivito, D; Padhi, S; Pieri, M; Sani, M; Sharma, V; Simon, S; Tadel, M; Tu, Y; Vartak, A; Wasserbaech, S; Welke, C; Würthwein, F; Yagil, A; Zevi Della Porta, G; Bradmiller-Feld, J; Campagnari, C; Dishaw, A; Dutta, V; Flowers, K; Franco Sevilla, M; Geffert, P; George, C; Golf, F; Gouskos, L; Gran, J; Incandela, J; Mccoll, N; Mullin, S D; Mullin, S D; Richman, J; Stuart, D; Suarez, I; West, C; Yoo, J; Anderson, D; Apresyan, A; Bornheim, A; Bunn, J; Chen, Y; Duarte, J; Mott, A; Newman, H B; Pena, C; Pierini, M; Spiropulu, M; Vlimant, J R; Xie, S; Zhu, R Y; Andrews, M B; Azzolini, V; Calamba, A; Carlson, B; Ferguson, T; Paulini, M; Russ, J; Sun, M; Vogel, H; Vorobiev, I; Cumalat, J P; Ford, W T; Gaz, A; Jensen, F; Johnson, A; Krohn, M; Mulholland, T; Nauenberg, U; Stenson, K; Wagner, S R; Alexander, J; Chatterjee, A; Chaves, J; Chu, J; Dittmer, S; Eggert, N; Mirman, N; Nicolas Kaufman, G; Patterson, J R; Rinkevicius, A; Ryd, A; Skinnari, L; Soffi, L; Sun, W; Tan, S M; Teo, W D; Thom, J; Thompson, J; Tucker, J; Weng, Y; Wittich, P; Abdullin, S; Albrow, M; Apollinari, G; Banerjee, S; Bauerdick, L A T; Beretvas, A; Berryhill, J; Bhat, P C; Bolla, G; Burkett, K; Butler, J N; Cheung, H W K; Chlebana, F; Cihangir, S; Elvira, V D; Fisk, I; Freeman, J; Gottschalk, E; Gray, L; Green, D; Grünendahl, S; Gutsche, O; Hanlon, J; Hare, D; Harris, R M; Hasegawa, S; Hirschauer, J; Hu, Z; Jayatilaka, B; Jindariani, S; Johnson, M; Joshi, U; Jung, A W; Klima, B; Kreis, B; Lammel, S; Linacre, J; Lincoln, D; Lipton, R; Liu, T; Lopes De Sá, R; Lykken, J; Maeshima, K; Marraffino, J M; Martinez Outschoorn, V I; Maruyama, S; Mason, D; McBride, P; Merkel, P; Mishra, K; Mrenna, S; Nahn, S; Newman-Holmes, C; O'Dell, V; Pedro, K; Prokofyev, O; Rakness, G; Sexton-Kennedy, E; Soha, A; Spalding, W J; Spiegel, L; Strobbe, N; Taylor, L; Tkaczyk, S; Tran, N V; Uplegger, L; Vaandering, E W; Vernieri, C; Verzocchi, M; Vidal, R; Weber, H A; Whitbeck, A; Acosta, D; Avery, P; Bortignon, P; Bourilkov, D; Carnes, A; Carver, M; Curry, D; Das, S; Field, R D; Furic, I K; Gleyzer, S V; Hugon, J; Konigsberg, J; Korytov, A; Kotov, K; Low, J F; Ma, P; Matchev, K; Mei, H; Milenovic, P; Mitselmakher, G; Rank, D; Rossin, R; Shchutska, L; Snowball, M; Sperka, D; Terentyev, N; Thomas, L; Wang, J; Wang, S; Yelton, J; Hewamanage, S; Linn, S; Markowitz, P; Martinez, G; Rodriguez, J L; Adams, J R; Ackert, A; Adams, T; Askew, A; Bein, S; Bochenek, J; Diamond, B; Haas, J; Hagopian, S; Hagopian, V; Johnson, K F; Khatiwada, A; Prosper, H; Weinberg, M; Baarmand, M M; Bhopatkar, V; Colafranceschi, S; Hohlmann, M; Kalakhety, H; Noonan, D; Roy, T; Yumiceva, F; Adams, M R; Apanasevich, L; Berry, D; Betts, R R; Bucinskaite, I; Cavanaugh, R; Evdokimov, O; Gauthier, L; Gerber, C E; Hofman, D J; Kurt, P; O'Brien, C; Sandoval Gonzalez, L D; Silkworth, C; Turner, P; Varelas, N; Wu, Z; Zakaria, M; Bilki, B; Clarida, W; Dilsiz, K; Durgut, S; Gandrajula, R P; Haytmyradov, M; Khristenko, V; Merlo, J-P; Mermerkaya, H; Mestvirishvili, A; Moeller, A; Nachtman, J; Ogul, H; Onel, Y; Ozok, F; Penzo, A; Snyder, C; Tiras, E; Wetzel, J; Yi, K; Anderson, I; Anderson, I; Barnett, B A; Blumenfeld, B; Eminizer, N; Fehling, D; Feng, L; Gritsan, A V; Maksimovic, P; Martin, C; Osherson, M; Roskes, J; Sady, A; Sarica, U; Swartz, M; Xiao, M; Xin, Y; You, C; Xiao, M; Baringer, P; Bean, A; Benelli, G; Bruner, C; Kenny, R P; Majumder, D; Majumder, D; Malek, M; Murray, M; Sanders, S; Stringer, R; Wang, Q; Ivanov, A; Kaadze, K; Khalil, S; Makouski, M; Maravin, Y; Mohammadi, A; Saini, L K; Skhirtladze, N; Toda, S; Lange, D; Rebassoo, F; Wright, D; Anelli, C; Baden, A; Baron, O; Belloni, A; Calvert, B; Eno, S C; Ferraioli, C; Gomez, J A; Hadley, N J; Jabeen, S; Jabeen, S; Kellogg, R G; Kolberg, T; Kunkle, J; Lu, Y; Mignerey, A C; Shin, Y H; Skuja, A; Tonjes, M B; Tonwar, S C; Apyan, A; Barbieri, R; Baty, A; Bierwagen, K; Brandt, S; Bierwagen, K; Busza, W; Cali, I A; Demiragli, Z; Di Matteo, L; Gomez Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; Gulhan, D; Iiyama, Y; Innocenti, G M; Klute, M; Kovalskyi, D; Lai, Y S; Lee, Y-J; Levin, A; Luckey, P D; Marini, A C; Mcginn, C; Mironov, C; Narayanan, S; Niu, X; Paus, C; Ralph, D; Roland, C; Roland, G; Salfeld-Nebgen, J; Stephans, G S F; Sumorok, K; Varma, M; Velicanu, D; Veverka, J; Wang, J; Wang, T W; Wyslouch, B; Yang, M; Zhukova, V; Dahmes, B; Evans, A; Finkel, A; Gude, A; Hansen, P; Kalafut, S; Kao, S C; Klapoetke, K; Kubota, Y; Lesko, Z; Mans, J; Nourbakhsh, S; Ruckstuhl, N; Rusack, R; Tambe, N; Turkewitz, J; Acosta, J G; Oliveros, S; Avdeeva, E; Bloom, K; Bose, S; Claes, D R; Dominguez, A; Fangmeier, C; Gonzalez Suarez, R; Kamalieddin, R; Keller, J; Knowlton, D; Kravchenko, I; Meier, F; Monroy, J; Ratnikov, F; Siado, J E; Snow, G R; Alyari, M; Dolen, J; George, J; Godshalk, A; Harrington, C; Iashvili, I; Kaisen, J; Kharchilava, A; Kumar, A; Rappoccio, S; Roozbahani, B; Alverson, G; Barberis, E; Baumgartel, D; Chasco, M; Hortiangtham, A; Massironi, A; Morse, D M; Nash, D; Orimoto, T; Teixeira De Lima, R; Trocino, D; Wang, R-J; Wood, D; Zhang, J; Hahn, K A; Kubik, A; Mucia, N; Odell, N; Pollack, B; Pozdnyakov, A; Schmitt, M; Stoynev, S; Sung, K; Trovato, M; Velasco, M; Brinkerhoff, A; Dev, N; Hildreth, M; Jessop, C; Karmgard, D J; Kellams, N; Lannon, K; Marinelli, N; Meng, F; Mueller, C; Musienko, Y; Planer, M; Reinsvold, A; Ruchti, R; Smith, G; Taroni, S; Valls, N; Wayne, M; Wolf, M; Woodard, A; Antonelli, L; Brinson, J; Bylsma, B; Durkin, L S; Flowers, S; Hart, A; Hill, C; Hughes, R; Ji, W; Ling, T Y; Liu, B; Luo, W; Puigh, D; Rodenburg, M; Winer, B L; Wulsin, H W; Driga, O; Elmer, P; Hardenbrook, J; Hebda, P; Koay, S A; Lujan, P; Marlow, D; Medvedeva, T; Mooney, M; Olsen, J; Palmer, C; Piroué, P; Saka, H; Stickland, D; Tully, C; Zuranski, A; Malik, S; Barnes, V E; Benedetti, D; Bortoletto, D; Gutay, L; Jha, M K; Jones, M; Jung, K; Miller, D H; Neumeister, N; Primavera, F; Radburn-Smith, B C; Shi, X; Shipsey, I; Silvers, D; Sun, J; Svyatkovskiy, A; Wang, F; Xie, W; Xu, L; Parashar, N; Stupak, J; Adair, A; Akgun, B; Chen, Z; Ecklund, K M; Geurts, F J M; Guilbaud, M; Li, W; Michlin, B; Northup, M; Padley, B P; Redjimi, R; Roberts, J; Rorie, J; Tu, Z; Zabel, J; Betchart, B; Bodek, A; de Barbaro, P; Demina, R; Eshaq, Y; Ferbel, T; Galanti, M; Galanti, M; Garcia-Bellido, A; Han, J; Harel, A; Hindrichs, O; Hindrichs, O; Khukhunaishvili, A; Petrillo, G; Tan, P; Verzetti, M; Arora, S; Barker, A; Chou, J P; Contreras-Campana, C; Contreras-Campana, E; Ferencek, D; Gershtein, Y; Gray, R; Halkiadakis, E; Hidas, D; Hughes, E; Kaplan, S; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R; Lath, A; Nash, K; Panwalkar, S; Park, M; Salur, S; Schnetzer, S; Sheffield, D; Somalwar, S; Stone, R; Thomas, S; Thomassen, P; Walker, M; Foerster, M; Riley, G; Rose, K; Spanier, S; York, A; Bouhali, O; Castaneda Hernandez, A; Celik, A; Dalchenko, M; De Mattia, M; Delgado, A; Dildick, S; Dildick, S; Eusebi, R; Gilmore, J; Huang, T; Kamon, T; Krutelyov, V; Krutelyov, V; Mueller, R; Osipenkov, I; Pakhotin, Y; Patel, R; Patel, R; Perloff, A; Rose, A; Safonov, A; Tatarinov, A; Ulmer, K A; Akchurin, N; Cowden, C; Damgov, J; Dragoiu, C; Dudero, P R; Faulkner, J; Kunori, S; Lamichhane, K; Lee, S W; Libeiro, T; Undleeb, S; Volobouev, I; Appelt, E; Delannoy, A G; Greene, S; Gurrola, A; Janjam, R; Johns, W; Maguire, C; Mao, Y; Melo, A; Ni, H; Sheldon, P; Snook, B; Tuo, S; Velkovska, J; Xu, Q; Arenton, M W; Cox, B; Francis, B; Goodell, J; Hirosky, R; Ledovskoy, A; Li, H; Lin, C; Neu, C; Sinthuprasith, T; Sun, X; Wang, Y; Wolfe, E; Wood, J; Xia, F; Clarke, C; Harr, R; Karchin, P E; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C; Lamichhane, P; Sturdy, J; Belknap, D A; Carlsmith, D; Cepeda, M; Dasu, S; Dodd, L; Duric, S; Gomber, B; Grothe, M; Hall-Wilton, R; Herndon, M; Hervé, A; Klabbers, P; Lanaro, A; Levine, A; Long, K; Loveless, R; Mohapatra, A; Ojalvo, I; Perry, T; Pierro, G A; Polese, G; Ruggles, T; Sarangi, T; Savin, A; Sharma, A; Smith, N; Smith, W H; Taylor, D; Woods, N

    New sets of parameters ("tunes") for the underlying-event (UE) modelling of the pythia8, pythia6 and herwig++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE proton-proton ([Formula: see text]) data at [Formula: see text] and to UE proton-antiproton ([Formula: see text]) data from the CDF experiment at lower [Formula: see text], are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton-proton collisions at 13[Formula: see text]. In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons are presented of the UE tunes to "minimum bias" (MB) events, multijet, and Drell-Yan ([Formula: see text] lepton-antilepton+jets) observables at 7 and 8[Formula: see text], as well as predictions for MB and UE observables at 13[Formula: see text].

  13. Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

    Khachatryan, Vardan; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aşılar, Ece; Bergauer, Thomas; Brandstetter, Johannes; Brondolin, Erica; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Flechl, Martin; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hartl, Christian; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Knünz, Valentin; König, Axel; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Matsushita, Takashi; Mikulec, Ivan; Rabady, Dinyar; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Herbert; Schieck, Jochen; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Treberer-Treberspurg, Wolfgang; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Alderweireldt, Sara; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Knutsson, Albert; Lauwers, Jasper; Luyckx, Sten; Van De Klundert, Merijn; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Abu Zeid, Shimaa; Blekman, Freya; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Daci, Nadir; De Bruyn, Isabelle; Deroover, Kevin; Heracleous, Natalie; Keaveney, James; Lowette, Steven; Moreels, Lieselotte; Olbrechts, Annik; Python, Quentin; Strom, Derek; Tavernier, Stefaan; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Van Parijs, Isis; Barria, Patrizia; Brun, Hugues; Caillol, Cécile; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Fasanella, Giuseppe; Favart, Laurent; Grebenyuk, Anastasia; Karapostoli, Georgia; Lenzi, Thomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Maerschalk, Thierry; Marinov, Andrey; Perniè, Luca; Randle-conde, Aidan; Seva, Tomislav; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Yonamine, Ryo; Zenoni, Florian; Zhang, Fengwangdong; Beernaert, Kelly; Benucci, Leonardo; Cimmino, Anna; Crucy, Shannon; Dobur, Didar; Fagot, Alexis; Garcia, Guillaume; Gul, Muhammad; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Poyraz, Deniz; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Salva Diblen, Sinem; Sigamani, Michael; Tytgat, Michael; Van Driessche, Ward; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Beluffi, Camille; Bondu, Olivier; Brochet, Sébastien; Bruno, Giacomo; Caudron, Adrien; Ceard, Ludivine; Da Silveira, Gustavo Gil; Delaere, Christophe; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Jafari, Abideh; Jez, Pavel; Komm, Matthias; Lemaitre, Vincent; Mertens, Alexandre; Musich, Marco; Nuttens, Claude; Perrini, Lucia; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Popov, Andrey; Quertenmont, Loic; Selvaggi, Michele; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Beliy, Nikita; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Alves, Fábio Lúcio; Alves, Gilvan; Brito, Lucas; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; Hamer, Matthias; Hensel, Carsten; Moraes, Arthur; Pol, Maria Elena; Rebello Teles, Patricia; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, Ewerton; Carvalho, Wagner; Chinellato, Jose; Custódio, Analu; Da Costa, Eliza Melo; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Huertas Guativa, Lina Milena; Malbouisson, Helena; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Sznajder, Andre; Tonelli Manganote, Edmilson José; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Ahuja, Sudha; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Souza Santos, Angelo; Dogra, Sunil; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Mercadante, Pedro G; Moon, Chang-Seong; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Romero Abad, David; Ruiz Vargas, José Cupertino; Aleksandrov, Aleksandar; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Glushkov, Ivan; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Ahmad, Muhammad; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Du, Ran; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Plestina, Roko; Romeo, Francesco; Shaheen, Sarmad Masood; Spiezia, Aniello; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Chunjie; Wang, Zheng; Zhang, Huaqiao; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Li, Qiang; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Wang, Dayong; Xu, Zijun; Avila, Carlos; Cabrera, Andrés; Chaparro Sierra, Luisa Fernanda; Florez, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Puljak, Ivica; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Micanovic, Sasa; Sudic, Lucija; Attikis, Alexandros; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Rykaczewski, Hans; Bodlak, Martin; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Awad, Adel; Mahrous, Ayman; Mohammed, Yasser; Radi, Amr; Calpas, Betty; Kadastik, Mario; Murumaa, Marion; Raidal, Martti; Tiko, Andres; Veelken, Christian; Eerola, Paula; Pekkanen, Juska; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Wendland, Lauri; Talvitie, Joonas; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Couderc, Fabrice; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Favaro, Carlotta; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Machet, Martina; Malcles, Julie; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Titov, Maksym; Zghiche, Amina; Antropov, Iurii; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Busson, Philippe; Cadamuro, Luca; Chapon, Emilien; Charlot, Claude; Dahms, Torsten; Davignon, Olivier; Filipovic, Nicolas; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Jo, Mihee; Lisniak, Stanislav; Mastrolorenzo, Luca; Miné, Philippe; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Ortona, Giacomo; Paganini, Pascal; Pigard, Philipp; Regnard, Simon; Salerno, Roberto; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Sirois, Yves; Strebler, Thomas; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Aubin, Alexandre; Bloch, Daniel; Brom, Jean-Marie; Buttignol, Michael; Chabert, Eric Christian; Chanon, Nicolas; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Coubez, Xavier; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Goetzmann, Christophe; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Merlin, Jeremie Alexandre; Skovpen, Kirill; Van Hove, Pierre; Gadrat, Sébastien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Bernet, Colin; Boudoul, Gaelle; Bouvier, Elvire; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Courbon, Benoit; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fan, Jiawei; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Lagarde, Francois; Laktineh, Imad Baptiste; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Pequegnot, Anne-Laure; Perries, Stephane; Ruiz Alvarez, José David; Sabes, David; Sgandurra, Louis; Sordini, Viola; Vander Donckt, Muriel; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Toriashvili, Tengizi; Lomidze, David; Autermann, Christian; Beranek, Sarah; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heister, Arno; Kiesel, Maximilian Knut; Klein, Katja; Lipinski, Martin; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Preuten, Marius; Raupach, Frank; Schael, Stefan; Schulte, Jan-Frederik; Verlage, Tobias; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Brodski, Michael; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Endres, Matthias; Erdmann, Martin; Erdweg, Sören; Esch, Thomas; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Knutzen, Simon; Kreuzer, Peter; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Millet, Philipp; Olschewski, Mark; Padeken, Klaas; Papacz, Paul; Pook, Tobias; Radziej, Markus; Reithler, Hans; Rieger, Marcel; Scheuch, Florian; Sonnenschein, Lars; Teyssier, Daniel; Thüer, Sebastian; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Künsken, Andreas; Lingemann, Joschka; Nehrkorn, Alexander; Nowack, Andreas; Nugent, Ian Michael; Pistone, Claudia; Pooth, Oliver; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Asin, Ivan; Bartosik, Nazar; Behnke, Olaf; Behrens, Ulf; Bell, Alan James; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Campbell, Alan; Choudhury, Somnath; Costanza, Francesco; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Dolinska, Ganna; Dooling, Samantha; Dorland, Tyler; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Eichhorn, Thomas; Flucke, Gero; Gallo, Elisabetta; Garay Garcia, Jasone; Geiser, Achim; Gizhko, Andrii; Gunnellini, Paolo; Hauk, Johannes; Hempel, Maria; Jung, Hannes; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Karacheban, Olena; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kieseler, Jan; Kleinwort, Claus; Korol, Ievgen; Lange, Wolfgang; Leonard, Jessica; Lipka, Katerina; Lobanov, Artur; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mittag, Gregor; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Nayak, Aruna; Ntomari, Eleni; Perrey, Hanno; Pitzl, Daniel; Placakyte, Ringaile; Raspereza, Alexei; Roland, Benoit; Sahin, Mehmet Özgür; Saxena, Pooja; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schröder, Matthias; Seitz, Claudia; Spannagel, Simon; Trippkewitz, Karim Damun; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Blobel, Volker; Centis Vignali, Matteo; Draeger, Arne-Rasmus; Erfle, Joachim; Garutti, Erika; Goebel, Kristin; Gonzalez, Daniel; Görner, Martin; Haller, Johannes; Hoffmann, Malte; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Junkes, Alexandra; Klanner, Robert; Kogler, Roman; Kovalchuk, Nataliia; Lapsien, Tobias; Lenz, Teresa; Marchesini, Ivan; Marconi, Daniele; Meyer, Mareike; Nowatschin, Dominik; Ott, Jochen; Pantaleo, Felice; Peiffer, Thomas; Perieanu, Adrian; Pietsch, Niklas; Poehlsen, Jennifer; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Scharf, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schwandt, Joern; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Tholen, Heiner; Troendle, Daniel; Usai, Emanuele; Vanelderen, Lukas; Vanhoefer, Annika; Vormwald, Benedikt; Barth, Christian; Baus, Colin; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Butz, Erik; Chwalek, Thorsten; Colombo, Fabio; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Fink, Simon; Frensch, Felix; Friese, Raphael; Giffels, Manuel; Gilbert, Andrew; Haitz, Dominik; Hartmann, Frank; Heindl, Stefan Michael; Husemann, Ulrich; Katkov, Igor; Kornmayer, Andreas; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Maier, Benedikt; Mildner, Hannes; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Müller, Thomas; Müller, Thomas; Plagge, Michael; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Röcker, Steffen; Roscher, Frank; Sieber, Georg; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weber, Marc; Weiler, Thomas; Williamson, Shawn; Wöhrmann, Clemens; Wolf, Roger; Anagnostou, Georgios; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Giakoumopoulou, Viktoria Athina; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Psallidas, Andreas; Topsis-Giotis, Iasonas; Agapitos, Antonis; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Tziaferi, Eirini; Evangelou, Ioannis; Flouris, Giannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Loukas, Nikitas; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Paradas, Evangelos; Strologas, John; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hazi, Andras; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Zsigmond, Anna Julia; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Karancsi, János; Molnar, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Bartók, Márton; Makovec, Alajos; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Mal, Prolay; Mandal, Koushik; Sahoo, Deepak Kumar; Sahoo, Niladribihari; Swain, Sanjay Kumar; Bansal, Sunil; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Chawla, Ridhi; Gupta, Ruchi; Bhawandeep, Bhawandeep; Kalsi, Amandeep Kaur; Kaur, Anterpreet; Kaur, Manjit; Kumar, Ramandeep; Mehta, Ankita; Mittal, Monika; Singh, Jasbir; Walia, Genius; Kumar, Ashok; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Garg, Rocky Bala; Kumar, Ajay; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Nishu, Nishu; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Ramkrishna; Sharma, Varun; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Chatterjee, Kalyanmoy; Dey, Sourav; Dutta, Suchandra; Jain, Sandhya; Majumdar, Nayana; Modak, Atanu; Mondal, Kuntal; Mukherjee, Swagata; Mukhopadhyay, Supratik; Roy, Ashim; Roy, Debarati; Roy Chowdhury, Suvankar; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Chudasama, Ruchi; Dutta, Dipanwita; Jha, Vishwajeet; Kumar, Vineet; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Topkar, Anita; Aziz, Tariq; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Bhowmik, Sandeep; Chatterjee, Rajdeep Mohan; Dewanjee, Ram Krishna; Dugad, Shashikant; Ganguly, Sanmay; Ghosh, Saranya; Guchait, Monoranjan; Gurtu, Atul; Kole, Gouranga; Kumar, Sanjeev; Mahakud, Bibhuprasad; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mitra, Soureek; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sarkar, Tanmay; Sur, Nairit; Sutar, Bajrang; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Chauhan, Shubhanshu; Dube, Sourabh; Kapoor, Anshul; Kothekar, Kunal; Sharma, Seema; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Behnamian, Hadi; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Goldouzian, Reza; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Naseri, Mohsen; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Rezaei Hosseinabadi, Ferdos; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Felcini, Marta; Grunewald, Martin; Abbrescia, Marcello; Calabria, Cesare; Caputo, Claudio; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; Cristella, Leonardo; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; Miniello, Giorgia; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Radogna, Raffaella; Ranieri, Antonio; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Venditti, Rosamaria; Verwilligen, Piet; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Battilana, Carlo; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Campanini, Renato; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Codispoti, Giuseppe; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Perrotta, Andrea; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Tosi, Nicolò; Travaglini, Riccardo; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Giordano, Ferdinando; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Gonzi, Sandro; Gori, Valentina; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Viliani, Lorenzo; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Primavera, Federica; Calvelli, Valerio; Ferro, Fabrizio; Lo Vetere, Maurizio; Monge, Maria Roberta; Robutti, Enrico; Tosi, Silvano; Brianza, Luca; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Gerosa, Raffaele; Ghezzi, Alessio; Govoni, Pietro; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Marzocchi, Badder; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Cavallo, Nicola; Di Guida, Salvatore; Esposito, Marco; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lanza, Giuseppe; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Sciacca, Crisostomo; Thyssen, Filip; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Benato, Lisa; Bisello, Dario; Boletti, Alessio; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dall'Osso, Martino; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Fantinel, Sergio; Fanzago, Federica; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Zanetti, Marco; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zucchetta, Alberto; Braghieri, Alessandro; Magnani, Alice; Montagna, Paolo; Ratti, Sergio P; Re, Valerio; Riccardi, Cristina; Salvini, Paola; Vai, Ilaria; Vitulo, Paolo; Alunni Solestizi, Luisa; Bilei, Gian Mario; Ciangottini, Diego; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Androsov, Konstantin; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Bernardini, Jacopo; Boccali, Tommaso; Castaldi, Rino; Ciocci, Maria Agnese; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Donato, Silvio; Fedi, Giacomo; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Grippo, Maria Teresa; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Savoy-Navarro, Aurore; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; D'imperio, Giulia; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Gelli, Simone; Jorda, Clara; Longo, Egidio; Margaroli, Fabrizio; Meridiani, Paolo; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Preiato, Federico; Rahatlou, Shahram; Rovelli, Chiara; Santanastasio, Francesco; Traczyk, Piotr; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Bellan, Riccardo; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; Covarelli, Roberto; Degano, Alessandro; Demaria, Natale; Finco, Linda; Kiani, Bilal; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Monteil, Ennio; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pacher, Luca; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Pinna Angioni, Gian Luca; Ravera, Fabio; Romero, Alessandra; Ruspa, Marta; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Casarsa, Massimo; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; La Licata, Chiara; Marone, Matteo; Schizzi, Andrea; Zanetti, Anna; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kim, Min Suk; Kong, Dae Jung; Lee, Sangeun; Oh, Young Do; Sakharov, Alexandre; Son, Dong-Chul; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Kim, Hyunsoo; Kim, Tae Jeong; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Go, Yeonju; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Yongsun; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Kisoo; Lee, Kyong Sei; Lee, Songkyo; Park, Sung Keun; Roh, Youn; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Hyunyong; Kim, Ji Hyun; Lee, Jason Sang Hun; Park, Inkyu; Ryu, Geonmo; Ryu, Min Sang; Choi, Young-Il; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Donghyun; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Jongseok; Yu, Intae; Dudenas, Vytautas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Vaitkus, Juozas; Ahmed, Ijaz; Ibrahim, Zainol Abidin; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Md Ali, Mohd Adli Bin; Mohamad Idris, Faridah; Wan Abdullah, Wan Ahmad Tajuddin; Yusli, Mohd Nizam; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-De La Cruz, Ivan; Hernandez-Almada, Alberto; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Sánchez Hernández, Alberto; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Pedraza, Isabel; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Krofcheck, David; Butler, Philip H; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Muhammad; Hassan, Qamar; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Bluj, Michal; Boimska, Bożena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Byszuk, Adrian; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Misiura, Maciej; Olszewski, Michal; Walczak, Marek; Bargassa, Pedrame; Beirão Da Cruz E Silva, Cristóvão; Di Francesco, Agostino; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Leonardo, Nuno; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Nguyen, Federico; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Seixas, Joao; Toldaiev, Oleksii; Vadruccio, Daniele; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Afanasiev, Serguei; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Gorbunov, Ilya; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Konoplyanikov, Viktor; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Matveev, Viktor; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Shmatov, Sergey; Shulha, Siarhei; Skatchkov, Nikolai; Smirnov, Vitaly; Zarubin, Anatoli; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Karneyeu, Anton; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Pozdnyakov, Ivan; Safronov, Grigory; Spiridonov, Alexander; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Bylinkin, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Baskakov, Alexey; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Ershov, Alexander; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Miagkov, Igor; Obraztsov, Stepan; Petrushanko, Sergey; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Kachanov, Vassili; Kalinin, Alexey; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Cirkovic, Predrag; Milosevic, Jovan; Rekovic, Vladimir; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Escalante Del Valle, Alberto; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Navarro De Martino, Eduardo; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, Antonio María; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Soares, Mara Senghi; Albajar, Carmen; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Missiroli, Marino; Moran, Dermot; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Castiñeiras De Saa, Juan Ramon; De Castro Manzano, Pablo; Fernandez, Marcos; Garcia-Ferrero, Juan; Gomez, Gervasio; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Trevisani, Nicolò; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benaglia, Andrea; Bendavid, Joshua; Benhabib, Lamia; Benitez, Jose F; Berruti, Gaia Maria; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Castello, Roberto; Cerminara, Gianluca; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; Daponte, Vincenzo; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; De Gruttola, Michele; De Guio, Federico; De Roeck, Albert; De Visscher, Simon; Di Marco, Emanuele; Dobson, Marc; Dordevic, Milos; Dorney, Brian; Du Pree, Tristan; Duggan, Daniel; Dünser, Marc; Dupont, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Franzoni, Giovanni; Fulcher, Jonathan; Funk, Wolfgang; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Girone, Maria; Glege, Frank; Guida, Roberto; Gundacker, Stefan; Guthoff, Moritz; Hammer, Josef; Harris, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kirschenmann, Henning; Kortelainen, Matti J; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Krajczar, Krisztian; Lecoq, Paul; Lourenco, Carlos; Lucchini, Marco Toliman; Magini, Nicolo; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Martelli, Arabella; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moortgat, Filip; Morovic, Srecko; Mulders, Martijn; Nemallapudi, Mythra Varun; Neugebauer, Hannes; Orfanelli, Styliani; Orsini, Luciano; Pape, Luc; Perez, Emmanuelle; Peruzzi, Marco; Petrilli, Achille; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Piparo, Danilo; Racz, Attila; Reis, Thomas; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovere, Marco; Ruan, Manqi; Sakulin, Hannes; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Seidel, Markus; Sharma, Archana; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Steggemann, Jan; Stieger, Benjamin; Stoye, Markus; Takahashi, Yuta; Treille, Daniel; Triossi, Andrea; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Wardle, Nicholas; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Zagoździńska, Agnieszka; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Bachmair, Felix; Bäni, Lukas; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Casal, Bruno; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Eller, Philipp; Grab, Christoph; Heidegger, Constantin; Hits, Dmitry; Hoss, Jan; Kasieczka, Gregor; Lustermann, Werner; Mangano, Boris; Marionneau, Matthieu; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Masciovecchio, Mario; Meister, Daniel; Micheli, Francesco; Musella, Pasquale; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pata, Joosep; Pauss, Felicitas; Perrozzi, Luca; Quittnat, Milena; Rossini, Marco; Starodumov, Andrei; Takahashi, Maiko; Tavolaro, Vittorio Raoul; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Wallny, Rainer; Aarrestad, Thea Klaeboe; Amsler, Claude; Caminada, Lea; Canelli, Maria Florencia; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Cosa, Annapaola; Galloni, Camilla; Hinzmann, Andreas; Hreus, Tomas; Kilminster, Benjamin; Lange, Clemens; Ngadiuba, Jennifer; Pinna, Deborah; Robmann, Peter; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Salerno, Daniel; Yang, Yong; Cardaci, Marco; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Doan, Thi Hien; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Konyushikhin, Maxim; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Lin, Willis; Lu, Yun-Ju; Yu, Shin-Shan; Kumar, Arun; Bartek, Rachel; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Chen, Po-Hsun; Dietz, Charles; Fiori, Francesco; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Petrakou, Eleni; Tsai, Jui-fa; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Asavapibhop, Burin; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Singh, Gurpreet; Srimanobhas, Norraphat; Suwonjandee, Narumon; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Demiroglu, Zuhal Seyma; Dozen, Candan; Eskut, Eda; Gecit, Fehime Hayal; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Guler, Yalcin; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozcan, Merve; Ozdemir, Kadri; Polatoz, Ayse; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Mehmet; Zorbilmez, Caglar; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Isildak, Bora; Karapinar, Guler; Yalvac, Metin; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Yetkin, Elif Asli; Yetkin, Taylan; Cakir, Altan; Cankocak, Kerem; Sen, Sercan; Vardarlı, Fuat Ilkehan; Grynyov, Boris; Levchuk, Leonid; Sorokin, Pavel; Aggleton, Robin; Ball, Fionn; Beck, Lana; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Jacob, Jeson; Kreczko, Lukasz; Lucas, Chris; Meng, Zhaoxia; Newbold, Dave M; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Poll, Anthony; Sakuma, Tai; Seif El Nasr-storey, Sarah; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Dominic; Smith, Vincent J; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Calligaris, Luigi; Cieri, Davide; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Thea, Alessandro; Tomalin, Ian R; Williams, Thomas; Worm, Steven; Baber, Mark; Bainbridge, Robert; Buchmuller, Oliver; Bundock, Aaron; Burton, Darren; Casasso, Stefano; Citron, Matthew; Colling, David; Corpe, Louie; Cripps, Nicholas; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; De Wit, Adinda; Della Negra, Michel; Dunne, Patrick; Elwood, Adam; Ferguson, William; Futyan, David; Hall, Geoffrey; Iles, Gregory; Kenzie, Matthew; Lane, Rebecca; Lucas, Robyn; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Malik, Sarah; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Raymond, David Mark; Richards, Alexander; Rose, Andrew; Seez, Christopher; Tapper, Alexander; Uchida, Kirika; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Zenz, Seth Conrad; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Borzou, Ahmad; Call, Kenneth; Dittmann, Jay; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Pastika, Nathaniel; Charaf, Otman; Cooper, Seth; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Arcaro, Daniel; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Gastler, Daniel; Lawson, Philip; Rankin, Dylan; Richardson, Clint; Rohlf, James; St John, Jason; Sulak, Lawrence; Zou, David; Alimena, Juliette; Berry, Edmund; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Cutts, David; Dhingra, Nitish; Ferapontov, Alexey; Garabedian, Alex; Hakala, John; Heintz, Ulrich; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Mao, Zaixing; Narain, Meenakshi; Piperov, Stefan; Sagir, Sinan; Syarif, Rizki; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Erbacher, Robin; Funk, Garrett; Gardner, Michael; Ko, Winston; Lander, Richard; Mulhearn, Michael; Pellett, Dave; Pilot, Justin; Ricci-Tam, Francesca; Shalhout, Shalhout; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Stolp, Dustin; Tripathi, Mani; Wilbur, Scott; Yohay, Rachel; Bravo, Cameron; Cousins, Robert; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Florent, Alice; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Saltzberg, David; Schnaible, Christian; Takasugi, Eric; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Burt, Kira; Clare, Robert; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Hanson, Gail; Heilman, Jesse; Ivova PANEVA, Mirena; Jandir, Pawandeep; Kennedy, Elizabeth; Lacroix, Florent; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Malberti, Martina; Olmedo Negrete, Manuel; Shrinivas, Amithabh; Wei, Hua; Wimpenny, Stephen; Yates, Brent; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Derdzinski, Mark; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Klein, Daniel; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Olivito, Dominick; Padhi, Sanjay; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Tadel, Matevz; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Welke, Charles; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Bradmiller-Feld, John; Campagnari, Claudio; Dishaw, Adam; Dutta, Valentina; Flowers, Kristen; Franco Sevilla, Manuel; Geffert, Paul; George, Christopher; Golf, Frank; Gouskos, Loukas; Gran, Jason; Incandela, Joe; Mccoll, Nickolas; Mullin, Sam Daniel; Richman, Jeffrey; Stuart, David; Suarez, Indara; West, Christopher; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Anderson, Dustin; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Bunn, Julian; Chen, Yi; Duarte, Javier; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Pena, Cristian; Pierini, Maurizio; Spiropulu, Maria; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Xie, Si; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Andrews, Michael Benjamin; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carlson, Benjamin; Ferguson, Thomas; Paulini, Manfred; Russ, James; Sun, Menglei; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Jensen, Frank; Johnson, Andrew; Krohn, Michael; Mulholland, Troy; Nauenberg, Uriel; Stenson, Kevin; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Chaves, Jorge; Chu, Jennifer; Dittmer, Susan; Eggert, Nicholas; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Ryd, Anders; Skinnari, Louise; Soffi, Livia; Sun, Werner; Tan, Shao Min; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Weng, Yao; Wittich, Peter; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Apollinari, Giorgio; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bolla, Gino; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Cihangir, Selcuk; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gottschalk, Erik; Gray, Lindsey; Green, Dan; Grünendahl, Stefan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Hare, Daryl; Harris, Robert M; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hirschauer, James; Hu, Zhen; Jayatilaka, Bodhitha; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Jung, Andreas Werner; Klima, Boaz; Kreis, Benjamin; Lammel, Stephan; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Liu, Tiehui; Lopes De Sá, Rafael; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena Ingrid; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Merkel, Petra; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Nahn, Steve; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Pedro, Kevin; Prokofyev, Oleg; Rakness, Gregory; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Soha, Aron; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Strobbe, Nadja; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vernieri, Caterina; Verzocchi, Marco; Vidal, Richard; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Whitbeck, Andrew; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Carnes, Andrew; Carver, Matthew; Curry, David; Das, Souvik; Field, Richard D; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Hugon, Justin; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kotov, Khristian; Low, Jia Fu; Ma, Peisen; Matchev, Konstantin; Mei, Hualin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Rank, Douglas; Rossin, Roberto; Shchutska, Lesya; Snowball, Matthew; Sperka, David; Terentyev, Nikolay; Thomas, Laurent; Wang, Jian; Wang, Sean-Jiun; Yelton, John; Hewamanage, Samantha; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Ackert, Andrew; Adams, Jordon Rowe; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bein, Samuel; Bochenek, Joseph; Diamond, Brendan; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Johnson, Kurtis F; Khatiwada, Ajeeta; Prosper, Harrison; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Bhopatkar, Vallary; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Noonan, Daniel; Roy, Titas; Yumiceva, Francisco; Adams, Mark Raymond; Apanasevich, Leonard; Berry, Douglas; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Kurt, Pelin; O'Brien, Christine; Sandoval Gonzalez, Irving Daniel; Silkworth, Christopher; Turner, Paul; Varelas, Nikos; Wu, Zhenbin; Zakaria, Mohammed; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Dilsiz, Kamuran; Durgut, Süleyman; Gandrajula, Reddy Pratap; Haytmyradov, Maksat; Khristenko, Viktor; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Ogul, Hasan; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Penzo, Aldo; Snyder, Christina; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yi, Kai; Anderson, Ian; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Eminizer, Nicholas; Fehling, David; Feng, Lei; Gritsan, Andrei; Maksimovic, Petar; Martin, Christopher; Osherson, Marc; Roskes, Jeffrey; Cocoros, Alice; Sarica, Ulascan; Swartz, Morris; Xiao, Meng; Xin, Yongjie; You, Can; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Bruner, Christopher; Kenny III, Raymond Patrick; Majumder, Devdatta; Malek, Magdalena; Murray, Michael; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Wang, Quan; Ivanov, Andrew; Kaadze, Ketino; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Toda, Sachiko; Lange, David; Rebassoo, Finn; Wright, Douglas; Anelli, Christopher; Baden, Drew; Baron, Owen; Belloni, Alberto; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Ferraioli, Charles; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kellogg, Richard G; Kolberg, Ted; Kunkle, Joshua; Lu, Ying; Mignerey, Alice; Shin, Young Ho; Skuja, Andris; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Apyan, Aram; Barbieri, Richard; Baty, Austin; Bierwagen, Katharina; Brandt, Stephanie; Busza, Wit; Cali, Ivan Amos; Demiragli, Zeynep; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Gulhan, Doga; Iiyama, Yutaro; Innocenti, Gian Michele; Klute, Markus; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Lai, Yue Shi; Lee, Yen-Jie; Levin, Andrew; Luckey, Paul David; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Mcginn, Christopher; Mironov, Camelia; Narayanan, Siddharth; Niu, Xinmei; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Stephans, George; Sumorok, Konstanty; Varma, Mukund; Velicanu, Dragos; Veverka, Jan; Wang, Jing; Wang, Ta-Wei; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Zhukova, Victoria; Dahmes, Bryan; Evans, Andrew; Finkel, Alexey; Gude, Alexander; Hansen, Peter; Kalafut, Sean; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Lesko, Zachary; Mans, Jeremy; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rusack, Roger; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Acosta, John Gabriel; Oliveros, Sandra; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Fangmeier, Caleb; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kamalieddin, Rami; Keller, Jason; Knowlton, Dan; Kravchenko, Ilya; Meier, Frank; Monroy, Jose; Ratnikov, Fedor; Siado, Joaquin Emilo; Snow, Gregory R; Alyari, Maral; Dolen, James; George, Jimin; Godshalk, Andrew; Harrington, Charles; Iashvili, Ia; Kaisen, Josh; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Roozbahani, Bahareh; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Hortiangtham, Apichart; Massironi, Andrea; Morse, David Michael; Nash, David; Orimoto, Toyoko; Teixeira De Lima, Rafael; Trocino, Daniele; Wang, Ren-Jie; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Sung, Kevin; Trovato, Marco; Velasco, Mayda; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Dev, Nabarun; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kellams, Nathan; Lannon, Kevin; Marinelli, Nancy; Meng, Fanbo; Mueller, Charles; Musienko, Yuri; Planer, Michael; Reinsvold, Allison; Ruchti, Randy; Smith, Geoffrey; Taroni, Silvia; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Woodard, Anna; Antonelli, Louis; Brinson, Jessica; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Flowers, Sean; Hart, Andrew; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Ji, Weifeng; Ling, Ta-Yung; Liu, Bingxuan; Luo, Wuming; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Winer, Brian L; Wulsin, Howard Wells; Driga, Olga; Elmer, Peter; Hardenbrook, Joshua; Hebda, Philip; Koay, Sue Ann; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Palmer, Christopher; Piroué, Pierre; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Zuranski, Andrzej; Malik, Sudhir; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bortoletto, Daniela; Gutay, Laszlo; Jha, Manoj; Jones, Matthew; Jung, Kurt; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shi, Xin; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Sun, Jian; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Wang, Fuqiang; Xie, Wei; Xu, Lingshan; Parashar, Neeti; Stupak, John; Adair, Antony; Akgun, Bora; Chen, Zhenyu; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Guilbaud, Maxime; Li, Wei; Michlin, Benjamin; Northup, Michael; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Rorie, Jamal; Tu, Zhoudunming; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Ferbel, Thomas; Galanti, Mario; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Hindrichs, Otto; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Petrillo, Gianluca; Tan, Ping; Verzetti, Mauro; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Hughes, Elliot; Kaplan, Steven; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, Raghav; Lath, Amitabh; Nash, Kevin; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Sheffield, David; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Thomassen, Peter; Walker, Matthew; Foerster, Mark; Riley, Grant; Rose, Keith; Spanier, Stefan; York, Andrew; Bouhali, Othmane; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo; Celik, Ali; Dalchenko, Mykhailo; De Mattia, Marco; Delgado, Andrea; Dildick, Sven; Eusebi, Ricardo; Gilmore, Jason; Huang, Tao; Kamon, Teruki; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Mueller, Ryan; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Patel, Rishi; Perloff, Alexx; Rose, Anthony; Safonov, Alexei; Tatarinov, Aysen; Ulmer, Keith; Akchurin, Nural; Cowden, Christopher; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Faulkner, James; Kunori, Shuichi; Lamichhane, Kamal; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Undleeb, Sonaina; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Janjam, Ravi; Johns, Willard; Maguire, Charles; Mao, Yaxian; Melo, Andrew; Ni, Hong; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Xu, Qiao; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Li, Hengne; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Sun, Xin; Wang, Yanchu; Wolfe, Evan; Wood, John; Xia, Fan; Clarke, Christopher; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sturdy, Jared; Belknap, Donald; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Dodd, Laura; Duric, Senka; Gomber, Bhawna; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Lanaro, Armando; Levine, Aaron; Long, Kenneth; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Perry, Thomas; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Polese, Giovanni; Ruggles, Tyler; Sarangi, Tapas; Savin, Alexander; Sharma, Archana; Smith, Nicholas; Smith, Wesley H; Taylor, Devin; Woods, Nathaniel


    New sets of parameters (``tunes'') for the underlying-event (UE) modeling of the PYTHIA8, PYTHIA6 and HERWIG++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE data at $\\sqrt{s} =$ 7 TeV and to UE data from the CDF experiment at lower $\\sqrt{s}$, are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV. In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons of the UE tunes to ``minimum bias'' (MB) events, multijet, and Drell--Yan ($ \\mathrm{ q \\bar{q} } \\rightarrow \\mathrm{Z} / \\gamma^* \\rightarrow$ lepton-antilepton + jets) observables at 7 and 8 TeV are presented, as well as predictions of MB and UE observables at 13 TeV.

  14. Event generator tunes obtained from underlying event and multiparton scattering measurements

    Khachatryan, Vardan; et al.


    New sets of parameters (“tunes”) for the underlying-event (UE) modelling of the pythia8, pythia6 and herwig++ Monte Carlo event generators are constructed using different parton distribution functions. Combined fits to CMS UE proton–proton ( $\\mathrm {p}\\mathrm {p}$ ) data at $\\sqrt{s} = 7\\,\\text {TeV} $ and to UE proton–antiproton ( $\\mathrm {p}\\overline{\\mathrm{p}} $ ) data from the CDF experiment at lower $\\sqrt{s}$ , are used to study the UE models and constrain their parameters, providing thereby improved predictions for proton–proton collisions at 13 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ . In addition, it is investigated whether the values of the parameters obtained from fits to UE observables are consistent with the values determined from fitting observables sensitive to double-parton scattering processes. Finally, comparisons are presented of the UE tunes to “minimum bias” (MB) events, multijet, and Drell–Yan ( $ \\mathrm{q} \\overline{\\mathrm{q}} \\rightarrow \\mathrm{Z}/ \\gamma ^* \\rightarrow $ lepton-antilepton+jets) observables at 7 and 8 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ , as well as predictions for MB and UE observables at 13 $\\,\\text {TeV}$ .

  15. Tsunami-HySEA model validation for tsunami current predictions

    Macías, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; Ortega, Sergio


    Model ability to compute and predict tsunami flow velocities is of importance in risk assessment and hazard mitigation. Substantial damage can be produced by high velocity flows, particularly in harbors and bays, even when the wave height is small. Besides, an accurate simulation of tsunami flow velocities and accelerations is fundamental for advancing in the study of tsunami sediment transport. These considerations made the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) proposing a benchmark exercise focussed on modeling and simulating tsunami currents. Until recently, few direct measurements of tsunami velocities were available to compare and to validate model results. After Tohoku 2011 many current meters measurement were made, mainly in harbors and channels. In this work we present a part of the contribution made by the EDANYA group from the University of Malaga to the NTHMP workshop organized at Portland (USA), 9-10 of February 2015. We have selected three out of the five proposed benchmark problems. Two of them consist in real observed data from the Tohoku 2011 event, one at Hilo Habour (Hawaii) and the other at Tauranga Bay (New Zealand). The third one consists in laboratory experimental data for the inundation of Seaside City in Oregon. Acknowledgements: This research has been partially supported by the Junta de Andalucía research project TESELA (P11-RNM7069) and the Spanish Government Research project DAIFLUID (MTM2012-38383-C02-01) and Universidad de Málaga, Campus de Excelencia Andalucía TECH. The GPU and multi-GPU computations were performed at the Unit of Numerical Methods (UNM) of the Research Support Central Services (SCAI) of the University of Malaga.

  16. Semantic annotation of clinical events for generating a problem list.

    Mowery, Danielle L; Jordan, Pamela; Wiebe, Janyce; Harkema, Henk; Dowling, John; Chapman, Wendy W


    We present a pilot study of an annotation schema representing problems and their attributes, along with their relationship to temporal modifiers. We evaluated the ability for humans to annotate clinical reports using the schema and assessed the contribution of semantic annotations in determining the status of a problem mention as active, inactive, proposed, resolved, negated, or other. Our hypothesis is that the schema captures semantic information useful for generating an accurate problem list. Clinical named entities such as reference events, time points, time durations, aspectual phase, ordering words and their relationships including modifications and ordering relations can be annotated by humans with low to moderate recall. Once identified, most attributes can be annotated with low to moderate agreement. Some attributes - Experiencer, Existence, and Certainty - are more informative than other attributes - Intermittency and Generalized/Conditional - for predicting a problem mention's status. Support vector machine outperformed Naïve Bayes and Decision Tree for predicting a problem's status.

  17. Top Quark Mass Calibration for Monte Carlo Event Generators

    Butenschoen, Mathias; Hoang, Andre H; Mateu, Vicent; Preisser, Moritz; Stewart, Iain W


    The most precise top quark mass measurements use kinematic reconstruction methods, determining the top mass parameter of a Monte Carlo event generator, $m_t^{\\rm MC}$. Due to hadronization and parton shower dynamics, relating $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ to a field theory mass is difficult. We present a calibration procedure to determine this relation using hadron level QCD predictions for observables with kinematic mass sensitivity. Fitting $e^+e^-$ 2-Jettiness calculations at NLL/NNLL order to Pythia 8.205, $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ differs from the pole mass by $900$/$600$ MeV, and agrees with the MSR mass within uncertainties, $m_t^{\\rm MC}\\simeq m_{t,1\\,{\\rm GeV}}^{\\rm MSR}$.

  18. Hipse: an event generator for nuclear collisions at intermediate energies

    Lacroix, D.; Van Lauwe, A.; Durand, D


    An event generator, HIPSE (Heavy-Ion Phase-Space Exploration), dedicated to the description of nuclear collisions in the intermediate energy range is presented. Based on the sudden approximation and on geometrical hypothesis, it can conveniently simulate heavy-ion interactions at all impact parameters and thus can constitute a valuable tool for the understanding of processes such as neck emission or multifragmentation in peripheral or/and central collisions. After a detailed description of the ingredients of the model, first comparisons with experimental data collected by the INDRA collaboration are shown. Special emphasis is put on the kinematical characteristics of fragments and light particles observed at all impact parameters for Xe+Sn reactions at 25 and 50 MeV/u and Ni + Ni at 82 MeV/u. (authors)

  19. Inclusion of GENIE as neutrino event generator for INO ICAL



    The iron calorimeter (ICAL) detector is the proposed underground neutrino-physics experiment in the INO cavern. Its main goal is the determination of sign of 2–3 mass-squared difference, $\\Delta m^{2}_{32}$ $(=m^{2}_{3} − m^{2}_{2})$ in the presence of matter effects, apart from the precise measurement of other neutrino parameters. Like all other neutrino experiments, the INO Collaboration is going to interface its main software code with a neutrino event generator. The GENIE software is best suited for the ICAL experiment. But, it requires a fewmodifications before being incorporated in ICAL simulation to have better representation of the neutrino flux and to be more user friendly to the INO user. This paper reports all these modifications.

  20. Methodology for Estimating Tsunami Induced Hazard for Ports Along California Coastline

    Uslu, Burak; Titov, Vasily V.; Eble, Marie C.; Kanoglu, Utku


    Los Angeles County hosts two of the busiest container ports in the United States. The ports are adjacent to one another in San Pedro Bay but are operated separately by the cities of Long Beach and Los Angeles. Due to their importance to United States commerce, the hazard posed by tsunami is of great concern as the potential devastation and impact would likely interrupt commerce and marine activities. Furthermore, a tsunami would be hazardous to both the resident coastal population and the tourist trade for which these cities rely on for income. The Maritime Museum, Aquarium of the Pacific, and Queen Mary would all potentially be impacted by a tsunami. The seismic history of the Southern California Bight is well documented and confirms the tsunami generating potential of the region. A comprehensive study of the threat from near-field generation was conducted by Borrero et al. (2001, 2004). Dykstra and Jin (2006) and Moffatt and Nichol (2007) expanded these near-field studies by inclusion of tsunamis generated in the far-field along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Prior to the Kuril Islands event in November 2006, most studies focused on wave heights as the dominant measure of hazard. However, the impact of Kuril Islands tsunami at Crescent City, CA demonstrated that distant sources have the potential of inducing strong currents in harbors. To investigate the hazard posed by currents, a sensitivity study is performed for 322 tsunami sources for Mw 9.3 earthquakes along Pacific Rim subduction zones using the Method of Splitting Tsunamis model (Titov and Synolakis, 1998). Of the scenarios investigated, eleven sources in Alaska, Chile, Philippines, Manu, New Zealand and Vanuatu are identified as potentially hazardous to Ports in Southern California. Initial study results suggest that a Mw 9.3 earthquake can potentially trigger a tsunami with wave amplitudes reaching up to 2 m and currents exceeding 8 knots in Los Angeles Harbor. This study also suggests that Pacific Basin

  1. Diverse Approaches USED to Characterize the Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards Along the Southern Alaska Continental Margin

    Haeussler, P. J.; Witter, R. C.; Liberty, L. M.; Brothers, D. S.; Briggs, R. W.; Armstrong, P. A.; Freymueller, J. T.; Parsons, T.; Ryan, H. F.; Lee, H. J.; Roland, E. C.


    Earthquakes and tsunamis are the principal geohazards of southern Alaska. The entire margin has ruptured in megathrust earthquakes, including the M9.2 1964 event, and these earthquakes have launched deadly local and trans-Pacific tsunamis. Tsunamis have been by far the largest killer in these earthquakes. Moreover, the subduction zone displays a range in locking behavior from completely locked beneath Prince William Sound, to ­­­­nearly freely slipping beneath the Shumagin Islands. Characterizing earthquake-related tsunami sources requires a diverse set of methods, and we discuss several examples. One important source for tsunamis is from megathrust splay faults. The Patton Bay splay fault system ruptured during the 1964 earthquake and generated a tsunami that impacted coastlines tens of minutes after the earthquake. A combination of multibeam mapping, high-resolution and crustal-scale seismic data, thermochronology, and detrital zircon geochronology show focused exhumation along this splay fault system for the last 2-3 Ma. Moreover, this long term pattern of exhumation mimics the pattern of uplift in 1964. Submarine landslides are another example of a tsunami source. Numerous devastating slides were triggered by the 1964 earthquake. Multibeam bathymetry, bathymetry difference maps, high-resolution seismic data, and records of paleotsunamis in coastal marshes reveal a long history of submarine landsliding in the coastal fjords of Alaska. The Little Ice Age appears to have had a significant influence on the submarine landslides in the 1964 earthquake through increased sediment production, transport to fjord margins, and, locally, compaction by glacier advances. Glacial retreat before 1964 gave rise to over-steepened slopes susceptible to dynamic failure. Numerous blocks in the submarine landslides were particularly effective in generating high tsunami run up. Finally, regional tectonic displacements of the seafloor have launched trans-Pacific tsunamis. Coastal

  2. Quantification of Monte Carlo event generator scale-uncertainties with an example ATLAS analysis studying underlying event properties

    Brandt, Gerhard [University of Oxford (United Kingdom); Krauss, Frank [IPPP Durham (United Kingdom); Lacker, Heiko; Leyton, Michael; Mamach, Martin; Schulz, Holger; Weyh, Daniel [Humboldt University of Berlin (Germany)


    Monte Carlo (MC) event generators are widely employed in the analysis of experimental data also for LHC in order to predict the features of observables and test analyses with them. These generators rely on phenomenological models containing various parameters which are free in certain ranges. Variations of these parameters relative to their default lead to uncertainties on the predictions of the event generators and, in turn, on the results of any experimental data analysis making use of the event generator. A Generalized method for quantifying a certain class of these generator based uncertainties will be presented in this talk. We study for the SHERPA event generator the effect on the analysis results from uncertainties in the choice of the merging and factorization scale. The quantification is done within an example ATLAS analysis measuring underlying event UE properties in Z-boson production limited to low transverse momenta (p{sub T}{sup Z}<3 GeV) of the Z-boson. The analysis extracts event-shape distributions from charged particles in the event that do not belong to the Z decay for generate Monte Carlo event and data which are unfolded back to the generator level.

  3. Tsunami diaries

    Radović Srđan


    Full Text Available Inspired by recent discussion on how Serbian media influenced allegedly indifferent reaction of the public to the aftermath of tsunami, this paper examines the role of electronic media in Serbia, television in particular, in regard to their function as a central communication channel for acquiring knowledge about world surroundings. With a premise of having cultural and discursive power, Dnevnik, the central news program of the Serbian public broadcaster, is taken as a paradigmatic media text for analysis in order to examine ways in which global affairs and phenomena are portrayed and structured in television representation of reality. It is suggested that it is fair to conclude that world affairs are marginalized within the representational frame of news broadcasts, and that the media discourse could be depicted as dominantly introverted when it comes to global flow of information and cultural meanings, which is significant regarding cultural perception of world realities among Serbian audiences.

  4. Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan


    This study evaluates the hypothetical economic impacts of the SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario to the California economy. The SAFRR scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). Economic impacts are measured by the estimated reduction in California’s gross domestic product (GDP), the standard economic measure of the total value of goods and services produced. Economic impacts are derived from the physical damages from the tsunami as described by Porter and others (2013). The principal physical damages that result in disruption of the California economy are (1) about $100 million in damages to the twin Ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), (2) about $700 million in damages to marinas, and (3) about $2.5 billion in damages to buildings and contents (properties) in the tsunami inundation zone on the California coast. The study of economic impacts does not include the impacts from damages to roads, bridges, railroads, and agricultural production or fires in fuel storage facilities because these damages will be minimal with respect to the California economy. The economic impacts of damage to other California ports are not included in this study because detailed evaluation of the physical damage to these ports was not available in time for this report. The analysis of economic impacts is accomplished in several steps. First, estimates are made for the direct economic impacts that result in immediate business interruption losses in individual sectors of the economy due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of the flow of production units (commodities necessary for production). Second, the total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by including the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors by ripple

  5. State Emergency Response and Field Observation Activities in California (USA) during the March 11, 2011, Tohoku Tsunami

    Miller, K. M.; Wilson, R. I.; Goltz, J.; Fenton, J.; Long, K.; Dengler, L.; Rosinski, A.; California Tsunami Program


    This poster will present an overview of successes and challenges observed by the authors during this major tsunami response event. The Tohoku, Japan tsunami was the most costly to affect California since the 1964 Alaskan earthquake and ensuing tsunami. The Tohoku tsunami caused at least $50 million in damage to public facilities in harbors and marinas along the coast of California, and resulted in one fatality. It was generated by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake which occurred at 9:46PM PST on Thursday, March 10, 2011 in the sea off northern Japan. The tsunami was recorded at tide gages monitored by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), which projected tsunami surges would reach California in approximately 10 hours. At 12:51AM on March 11, 2011, based on forecasted tsunami amplitudes, the WCATWC placed the California coast north of Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) in a Tsunami Warning, and the coast south of Point Conception to the Mexican border in a Tsunami Advisory. The California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) activated two Regional Emergency Operation Centers (REOCs) and the State Operation Center (SOC). The California Geological Survey (CGS) deployed a field team which collected data before, during and after the event through an information clearinghouse. Conference calls were conducted hourly between the WCATWC and State Warning Center, as well as with emergency managers in the 20 coastal counties. Coordination focused on local response measures, public information messaging, assistance needs, evacuations, emergency shelters, damage, and recovery issues. In the early morning hours, some communities in low lying areas recommended evacuation for their citizens, and the fishing fleet at Crescent City evacuated to sea. The greatest damage occurred in the harbors of Crescent City and Santa Cruz. As with any emergency, there were lessons learned and important successes in managing this event. Forecasts by the WCATWC were highly accurate

  6. Foam A General Purpose Cellular Monte Carlo Event Generator

    Jadach, Stanislaw


    A general purpose, self-adapting, Monte Carlo (MC) event generator (simulator) is described. The high efficiency of the MC, that is small maximum weight or variance of the MC weight is achieved by means of dividing the integration domain into small cells. The cells can be $n$-dimensional simplices, hyperrectangles or Cartesian product of them. The grid of cells, called ``foam'', is produced in the process of the binary split of the cells. The choice of the next cell to be divided and the position/direction of the division hyper-plane is driven by the algorithm which optimizes the ratio of the maximum weight to the average weight or (optionally) the total variance. The algorithm is able to deal, in principle, with an arbitrary pattern of the singularities in the distribution. As any MC generator, it can also be used for the MC integration. With the typical personal computer CPU, the program is able to perform adaptive integration/simulation at relatively small number of dimensions ($\\leq 16$). With the continu...

  7. Tsunamis caused by submarine slope failures along western Great Bahama Bank

    Schnyder, Jara S. D.; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kirby, James T.; Shi, Fengyan; Tehranirad, Babak; Mulder, Thierry; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Hebbeln, Dierk; Wintersteller, Paul


    Submarine slope failures are a likely cause for tsunami generation along the East Coast of the United States. Among potential source areas for such tsunamis are submarine landslides and margin collapses of Bahamian platforms. Numerical models of past events, which have been identified using high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, reveal possible tsunami impact on Bimini, the Florida Keys, and northern Cuba. Tsunamis caused by slope failures with terminal landslide velocity of 20 ms‑1 will either dissipate while traveling through the Straits of Florida, or generate a maximum wave of 1.5 m at the Florida coast. Modeling a worst-case scenario with a calculated terminal landslide velocity generates a wave of 4.5 m height. The modeled margin collapse in southwestern Great Bahama Bank potentially has a high impact on northern Cuba, with wave heights between 3.3 to 9.5 m depending on the collapse velocity. The short distance and travel time from the source areas to densely populated coastal areas would make the Florida Keys and Miami vulnerable to such low-probability but high-impact events.

  8. Microtextural analysis of quartz grains of tsunami and non-tsunami deposits - A case study from Tirúa (Chile)

    Bellanova, Piero; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Nentwig, Vanessa; Spiske, Michaela


    In order to estimate the tsunami hazard it is essential to reliably identify and differentiate tsunami deposits from other high-energy events like storms. Recently, the microtextural analysis of quartz grain surfaces was introduced as a method to differentiate between tsunami and other deposits. Using tsunami deposits sampled from a bank profile of the Tirúa river (central Chile), an area that was significantly affected by the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis, we tested the microtextural analysis method for its capability to identify tsunami deposits. A total of 815 quartz grain surfaces of two tsunami layers, two non-tsunami marsh sediment samples, and three reference samples from nearby beach, dune and river were analyzed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). We grouped the detected microtexture features into five microtextural families: angularity, fresh surfaces, percussion marks, adhering particles and dissolution features. Both the tsunami deposits and reference samples reveal high numbers of fresh surfaces and percussion marks. Thus, there are no statistically significant differences between tsunami, beach, dune and river deposits in characteristics and abundances in all microtextural families. Our study indicates that the microtextural analysis of quartz grains may not be a suitable method to identify tsunami deposits in Tirúa (Chile), due to local factors such as high numbers of inherited microtextures and the possible effects of the high amount of heavy minerals.

  9. Tsunamis: Water Quality

    ... Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Tsunamis: Water Quality Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... about testing should be directed to local authorities. Water for Drinking, Cooking, and Personal Hygiene Safe water ...

  10. Cascadia Tsunami Deposit Database

    Peters, Robert; Jaffe, Bruce; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Peterson, Curt


    The Cascadia Tsunami Deposit Database contains data on the location and sedimentological properties of tsunami deposits found along the Cascadia margin. Data have been compiled from 52 studies, documenting 59 sites from northern California to Vancouver Island, British Columbia that contain known or potential tsunami deposits. Bibliographical references are provided for all sites included in the database. Cascadia tsunami deposits are usually seen as anomalous sand layers in coastal marsh or lake sediments. The studies cited in the database use numerous criteria based on sedimentary characteristics to distinguish tsunami deposits from sand layers deposited by other processes, such as river flooding and storm surges. Several studies cited in the database contain evidence for more than one tsunami at a site. Data categories include age, thickness, layering, grainsize, and other sedimentological characteristics of Cascadia tsunami deposits. The database documents the variability observed in tsunami deposits found along the Cascadia margin.


    R. Kumaraperumal


    Full Text Available ABSTRACTA quake-triggered tsunami lashed the Nagapattinam coast of southern India on December 26, 2004 at around 9.00 am (IST. The tsunami caused heavy damage to houses, tourist resorts, fishing boats, prawn culture ponds, soil and crops, and consequently affected the livelihood of large numbers of the coastal communities. The study was carried out in the Tsunami affected villages in the coastal Nagapattinam with the help of remote sensing and geographical information science tools. Through the use of the IRS 1D PAN and LISS 3 merged data and quick bird images, it was found that 1,320 ha of agricultural and non-agricultural lands were affected by the tsunami. The lands were affected by soil erosion, salt deposition, water logging and other deposited sediments and debris. The maximum run-up height of 6.1 m and the maximum seawater inundation distance of 2.2 km were observed at Vadakkupoyyur village in coastal Nagapattinam.Pre and Post Tsunami survey on soil quality showed an increase in pH and EC values, irrespectiveof distance from the sea. The water reaction was found to be in alkaline range (> 8.00 in most of the -1wells. Salinity levels are greater than 4 dS m in all the wells except the ring well. The effect of summer rainfall on soil and water quality showed the dilution of soluble salts. Pumping of water has reduced the salinity levels in the well water samples and as well as in the open ponds. Following the 2004 event, it has become apparent to know the relative tsunami hazard for this coastal Nagapattinam. So, the Tsunami hazard maps are generated using a geographical information systems (GIS approach and the results showed 20.6 per cent, 63.7 per cent and 15.2 per cent of the study area fall under high hazard, medium hazard and low hazard category respectively.

  12. Constrains on the source of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami inferred from numerical modelling of historical data on the source of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami

    Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, P. M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Victor, L. Mendes


    The 1755 Lisbon tsunami was felt all over the North Atlantic, being one of the first major events of this kind relatively well documented by historical sources. However, in spite of the extensive research work on the historical reports by a considerable number of authors, the epicentre location of this event is still uncertain and its focal mechanism is still not well understood, implying a great uncertainty in the tsunami generating mechanism. The generally assumed epicentre, inferred from isoseismal maps, is located slightly north of the Gorringe Bank (SW Iberia) and the rupture mechanism has been assumed in the past to be similar to the well studied 1969.02.28 event. While all previous studies have used a seismic-based approach, this paper uses all that is known about the tsunami parameters at the coast — presented in a companion paper — to define the location and geometry of the tsunami source. For that purpose some backward ray-tracing techniques were developed and their results were used to define the initial fields in a number of shallow water simulations of the water height at the coastal locations where the most reliable historical data are available. The source parameters also took into account the estimated seismic energy released. The results obtained here suggest that the 1755 tsunami probably originated on the continental shelf, implying an epicentre area located between the Gorringe Bank and the Iberian coast, in a geodynamic context quite different from the one implied in the 1969.02.28 event. The amplitude of the initial movement in the source region, required by the shallow water simulations to account for the reported magnitudes, suggests an elongated but shallow rupture area, extending along the shelf. It is suggested that this location of the rupture would have significant implications in the geology of the region.

  13. Flux Transfer Events: 1. generation mechanism for strong southward IMF

    J. Raeder


    Full Text Available We use a global numerical model of the interaction of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field with Earth's magnetosphere to study the formation process of Flux Transfer Events (FTEs during strong southward IMF. We find that: (i The model produces essentially all observational features expected for FTEs, in particular the bipolar signature of the magnetic field BN component, the correct polarity, duration, and intermittency of that bipolar signature, strong core fields and enhanced core pressure, and flow enhancements; (ii FTEs only develop for large dipole tilt whereas in the case of no dipole tilt steady magnetic reconnection occurs at the dayside magnetopause; (iii the basic process by which FTEs are produced is the sequential generation of new X-lines which makes dayside reconnection inherently time dependent and leads to a modified form of dual or multiple X-line reconnection; (iv the FTE generation process in this model is not dependent on specific assumptions about microscopic processes; (v the average period of FTEs can be explained by simple geometric arguments involving magnetosheath convection; (vi FTEs do not develop in the model if the numerical resolution is too coarse leading to too much numerical diffusion; and (vii FTEs for nearly southward IMF and large dipole tilt, i.e., near solstice, should only develop in the winter hemisphere, which provides a testable prediction of seasonal modulation. The semiannual modulation of intermittent FTE reconnection versus steady reconnection is also expected to modulate magnetospheric and ionospheric convection and may thus contribute to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity.

  14. Quakes and tsunamis detected by GOCE

    Garcia, Raphael F.; Doornbos, Eelco; Bruinsma, Sean; Hebert, Hélène


    The aerodynamic accelerations measured by GOCE are used to calculate air density variations and air velocity estimates along GOCE orbit track. The detection of infrasonic waves generated by seismic surface waves and gravity waves generated by tsunamis are presented for earthquakes and tsunamis generated by the great Tohoku quake (11/03/2011). For the seismic/infrasonic waves, a wave propagation modelling is presented and synthetic data are compared to GOCE measurements. The travel time and amplitude discrepancies are discussed in terms of lateral velocity variations in the solid Earth and the atmosphere. For the tsunami/gravity waves, a plane wave analysis is performed and relations between vertical velocity, cross-track velocity and density variations are deduced. From theoretical relations between air density, and vertical and horizontal velocities inside the gravity wave, we demonstrate that the measured perturbations are consistent with a gravity wave generated by the tsunami, and provide a way to estimate the propagation azimuth of the gravity wave. By using these relations, an indicator of gravity wave presence is constructed. It will allow to scan the GOCE data set to search for gravity wave crossings. This study demonstrates that very low earth orbit spacecraft with high-resolution accelerometers are able to detect atmospheric waves generated by the tectonic activity. Such spacecraft may supply additional data to tsunami alert systems in order to validate some tsunami alerts.

  15. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.


    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  16. Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Guam

    Arcas, D.; Uslu, B.; Titov, V.; Chamberlin, C.


    The island of Guam is located approximately 1500 miles south of Japan, in the vicinity of the Mariana Trench. It is surrounded in close proximity by three subduction zones, Nankai-Taiwan, East Philippines and Mariana Trench that pose a considerable near to intermediate field tsunami threat. Tsunami catalogues list 14 tsunamigenic earthquake with Mw≥8.0 since 1900 only in this region, (Soloviev and Go, 1974; Lander, 1993; Iida, 1984; Lander and Lowell, 2002), however the island has not been significantly affected by some of the largest far-field events of the past century, such as the 1952 Kamchatka, 1960 Chile, and the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake. An assessment of the tsunami threat to the island from both near and far field sources, using forecast tools originally developed at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for real-time forecasting of tsunamis is presented here. Tide gauge records from 1952 Kamchatka, 1964 Alaska, and 1960 Chile earthquakes at Apra Harbor are used to validate our model set up, and to explain the limited impact of these historical events on Guam. Identification of worst-case scenarios, and determination of tsunamigenic effective source regions are presented for five vulnerable locations on the island via a tsunami sensitivity study. Apra Harbor is the site of a National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge and the biggest harbor on the island. Tumon Bay, Pago Bay, Agana Bay and Inarajan Bay are densely populated areas that require careful investigation. The sensitivity study shows that earthquakes from Eastern Philippines present a major threat to west coast facing sites, whereas the Marina Trench poses the biggest concern to the east coast facing sites.

  17. Observations and Numerical Modeling of the 2012 Haida Gwaii Tsunami off the Coast of British Columbia

    Fine, Isaac V.; Cherniawsky, Josef Y.; Thomson, Richard E.; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Krassovski, Maxim V.


    A major ( M w 7.7) earthquake occurred on October 28, 2012 along the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone off the west coast of Haida Gwaii (formerly the Queen Charlotte Islands). The earthquake was the second strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in Canadian history and generated the largest local tsunami ever recorded on the coast of British Columbia. A field survey on the Pacific side of Haida Gwaii revealed maximum runup heights of up to 7.6 m at sites sheltered from storm waves and 13 m in a small inlet that is less sheltered from storms (L eonard and B ednarski 2014). The tsunami was recorded by tide gauges along the coast of British Columbia, by open-ocean bottom pressure sensors of the NEPTUNE facility at Ocean Networks Canada's cabled observatory located seaward of southwestern Vancouver Island, and by several DART stations located in the northeast Pacific. The tsunami observations, in combination with rigorous numerical modeling, enabled us to determine the physical properties of this event and to correct the location of the tsunami source with respect to the initial geophysical estimates. The initial model results were used to specify sites of particular interest for post-tsunami field surveys on the coast of Moresby Island (Haida Gwaii), while field survey observations (L eonard and B ednarski 2014) were used, in turn, to verify the numerical simulations based on the corrected source region.

  18. Investigation on tsunami effects in the central Adriatic Sea during the last century – a contribution

    A. Maramai


    Full Text Available In this work we present the result of a study aimed at examining the Italian earthquake sequences that occurred in the area of the central Adriatic sea with the purpose of understanding whether some of them were accompanied by tsunami effects. The motivation for this research was the update and enrichment of the Italian Tsunami Catalogue. The result was that evidence was found for two new cases of earthquake-induced tsunamis: these are the August 1916 Rimini and the October 1930 Ancona events. The bulk of the present research consisted in collecting all the available data on the earthquakes that affected the selected area in the past century and in identifying those potentially capable of generating tsunamis. During the study all the available material was gathered, which includes specific monographs and scientific papers, articles available in contemporary chronicles and in local and national newspapers. The final result of this research will improve our knowledge of the tsunamigenic activity of the central Adriatic sea and contribute to the assessment of the tsunami hazard and risk along these coasts, that especially in the peak season form one of the most densely populated areas of the Italian peninsula with flat and large beaches and water front resorts crowded of tourists.

  19. Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic)

    Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.


    The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

  20. Comparing source inversion techniques for GPS-based local tsunami forecasting: A case study for the April 2014 M8.1 Iquique, Chile, earthquake

    Chen, Kejie; Babeyko, Andrey; Hoechner, Andreas; Ge, Maorong


    Real-time GPS is nowadays considered as a valuable component of next generation near-field tsunami early warning systems able to provide fast and reliable source parameters. Looking for optimal methodologies and assessing corresponding uncertainties becomes an important task. We take the opportunity and consider the 2014 Pisagua event as a case study to explore tsunami forecast uncertainty related to the GPS-based source inversion. We intentionally neglect all other sources of uncertainty (observation set, signal processing, wave simulation, etc.) and exclusively assess the effect of inversion technique. In particular, we compare three end-member methods: (1) point-source fastCMT (centroid moment tensor), (2) distributed slip along predefined plate interface, and (3) unconstrained inversion into a single uniform slip finite fault. The three methods provide significantly different far-field tsunami forecast but show surprisingly similar tsunami predictions in the near field.

  1. Mathematics of tsunami: modelling and identification

    Krivorotko, Olga; Kabanikhin, Sergey


    singular values of an inverse problem operator which is agreed with the error level in measured data is described and analysed. In numerical experiment we used conjugate gradient method for solving inverse tsunami problems. Gradient methods are based on minimizing the corresponding misfit function. To calculate the gradient of the misfit function, the adjoint problem is solved. The conservative finite-difference schemes for solving the direct and adjoint problems in the approximation of shallow water are constructed. Results of numerical experiments of the tsunami source reconstruction are presented and discussed. We show that using a combination of two types of data allows one to increase the stability and efficiency of tsunami source reconstruction. Non-profit organization WAPMERR (World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction) in collaboration with Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of SB RAS developed the Integrated Tsunami Research and Information System (ITRIS) to simulate tsunami waves and earthquakes, river course changes, coastal zone floods, and risk estimates for coastal constructions at wave run-ups and earthquakes. The special scientific plug-in components are embedded in a specially developed GIS-type graphic shell for easy data retrieval, visualization and processing. We demonstrate the tsunami simulation plug-in for historical tsunami events (2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Simushir tsunami 2006 and others). This work was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation.


    Galen Gisler


    Full Text Available With the LANL multiphysics hydrocode SAGE, we have performed several two-dimensional calculations and one three-dimensional calculation using the full Navier-Stokes equations, of a hypothetical landslide resembling the event posited by Ward and Day (2001, a lateral flank collapse of the Cumbre Vieja Volcano on La Palma that would produce a tsunami. The SAGE code has previously been used to model the Lituya Bay landslide-generated tsunami (Mader & Gittings, 2002, and has also been used to examine tsunami generation by asteroid impacts (Gisler, Weaver, Mader, & Gittings, 2003. This code uses continuous adaptive mesh refinement to focus computing resources where they are needed most, and accurate equations of state for water, air, and rock. We find that while high-amplitude waves are produced that would be highly dangerous to nearby communities (in the Canary Islands, and the shores of Morocco, Spain, and Portugal, the wavelengths and periods of these waves are relatively short, and they will not propagate efficiently over long distances.

  3. THE SAMOA TSUNAMI OF 29 SEPTEMBER 2009 Early Warning and Inundation Assessment

    Giovanni Franchello


    Full Text Available On 29 September 2009 at 17:48:11 UTC, a large earthquake of magnitude 8 struck off-shore of the Samoa Islands and generated a large tsunami that destroyed several villages and caused more than 160 fatalities. This report first presents the characteristics of the earthquake and discusses the best estimations for the fault parameters, which are the necessary input data for the hydrodynamic tsunami calculations. Then, the assessment of the near-real time systems invoked by the Global Disasters Alert and Coordination System (GDACS1 and the post-event calculations are performed, making comparisons with the observed tidal measurements and post-event survey. It was found that the most severely damaged locations are the Southern section of the Western Samoa Islands, Tutuila Isl in American Samoa and Niuatoputapu Isle in Tonga. This is in agreement with the locations indicated by the Red Cross as the most affected and with the results of the post-tsunami surveys. Furthermore, an attempt was made to map the inundation events using more detailed digital elevation models (DEM and hydrodynamic modelling with good results. The flooded areas for which we had satellite images and post-tsunami surveys confirm the inundated areas identified correctly by the hydrodynamic model. Indications are given on the DEM grid size needed for the different simulations.

  4. Lagrangian flow measurements and observations of the 2015 Chilean tsunami in Ventura, CA

    Kalligeris, Nikos; Skanavis, Vassilios; Tavakkol, Sasan; Ayca, Aykut; Safty, Hoda El; Lynett, Patrick; Synolakis, Costas


    Tsunami-induced coastal currents are spectacular examples of nonlinear and chaotic phenomena. Due to their long periods, tsunamis transport substantial energy into coastal waters, and as this energy interacts with the ubiquitous irregularity of bathymetry, shear and turbulent features appear. The oscillatory character of a tsunami wave train leads to flow reversals, which in principle can spawn persistent turbulent coherent structures (e.g., large vortices or "whirlpools") that can dominate damage and transport potential. However, no quantitative measurements exist to provide physical insight into this kind of turbulent variability, and no motion recordings are available to help elucidate how these vortical structures evolve and terminate. We report our measurements of currents in Ventura Harbor, California, generated by the 2015 Chilean M8.3 earthquake. We measured surface velocities using GPS drifters and image sequences of surface tracers deployed at a channel bifurcation, as the event unfolded. From the maps of the flow field, we find that a tsunami with a near-shore amplitude of 30 cm at 6 m depth produced unexpectedly large currents up to 1.5 m/s, which is a fourfold increase over what simple linear scaling would suggest. Coherent turbulent structures appear throughout the event, across a wide range of scales, often generating the greatest local currents.

  5. Lessons from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunamis, Developments, and Future Directions

    Satake, K.


    The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the worst tsunami disaster in history with 230,000 casualties, was generated by the largest earthquake (M 9.1) since the 1960 Chilean and 1964 Alaskan earthquakes, but such a giant earthquake was not anticipated in the Indian Ocean. Besides its size, lack of tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean and lack of knowledge about tsunami among the coastal residents enhanced the tsunami disaster, while scientific knowledge and technology for far-field tsunami warning system existed. Developments since 2004 include paleo-tsunami studies, global tsunami observations and tsunami warning and hazard mitigation systems. Tsunami deposits found in Indonesia, Thailand and India show that giant tsunamis similar to the 2004 tsunami occurred in the past. Deep ocean pressure gauges (DART system), GPS buoys and coastal tide gauges have been installed with real-time data-telemetry capability in Indian Ocean as well as the Pacific Ocean. Three regional tsunami warning centers are now in operation in India, Indonesia and Australia. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was also generated by a giant (M 9.0) earthquake. While such an earthquake was unexpected in Japan, similar tsunamis occurred in the past and caused damage on Sanriku coast and Sendai plain. The tsunami warning, issued 3 min after the earthquake, saved many lives yet caused significant (~19,000) fatalities, partly because of underestimation of earthquake size. The insufficient tsunami hazard assessment caused the significant number of casualties and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Existed coastal sea walls might have given inappropriate belief to coastal residents that they were protected from tsunami disaster. Scientific and technological developments needed for the future include estimation of probable maximum earthquake size for tsunami hazard assessment, and real-time estimation of earthquake and tsunami size based on seismic and sea level measurements. In addition, limitation of

  6. Far-Field Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand Ports

    Borrero, Jose C.; Goring, Derek G.; Greer, S. Dougal; Power, William L.


    We present the results of a numerical modeling study investigating the effects of far-field tsunamis in New Zealand ports. Four sites (Marsden Point, Tauranga, Harbor, Port Taranaki and Lyttelton Harbor) were selected based on a combination of factors such as economic importance and the availability of historical and/or instrumental data. Numerical models were created using the ComMIT tsunami modeling tool and the Method Of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) hydrodynamic model. Comparison of model results to measured data from recent historical events showed that, for particular sites and events, the model correlated well with the timing and amplitude of the observed tsunami, and, in most cases, there was generally good agreement between the and modeled tsunami heights and current speeds. A sensitivity analysis for tsunami heights and current speeds was conducted using a suite of large ( M W 9) tsunamigenic earthquake sources situated at regular 15° intervals in azimuth along the Pacific Rim while another set of scenarios focused on regional tsunami sources in the Southwest Pacific. Model results were analyzed for tsunami heights and current speeds as a function of the source region. In terms of currents, the analysis identified where speeds were greatest and which source was responsible. Results suggested that tsunamis originating from Central America produced the strongest response in New Zealand. The modeling was also used to determine the timing and duration of potentially dangerous current speeds as well as minimum `safe depths' for vessel evacuation offshore. This study was motivated by the desire to reduce damage and operational losses via improved forecasting of far-field tsunamis at New Zealand ports. It is important that forecasts are accurate since tsunami damage to ships and facilities is expensive and can be mitigated given timely warnings and because preventable false alarms are also costly in terms of lost productivity. The modeling presented here will


    Charles L. Mader


    Full Text Available The generation and propagation of the November 1, 1755 Lisbon earthquake generated tsunami is of current interest to the IOCARIBE Tsunami Scientific Steering Committee.The November 1, 1755 Lisbon earthquake generated a tsunami with a period of one hour and amplitudes of 20 meters at Lisbon and along the African and south European coasts, of 4 meters along the English coast, and of 7 meters at Saba in the Caribbean after 7 hours of travel. The modeling was performed using the SWAN code which solves the nonlinear long wave equations. The tsunami generation, and propagation was modeled using a 10. minute Mercator grid of 600 by 640 cells. The observed tsunami wavecharacteristics were approximatelyreproduced usinga source 300 kilometer in radius with a drop of 30 meters located in the region of the 1969 earthquake near the Gorringe bank. The east coast of the U.S.A. and the Caribbean received a tsunami wave off shore in deep water about 2 meters high with periods of 1.25 to 1.5 hours. The maximum wave amplitude after run-up would be about 10 feet. The Gulf of Mexico would have a wave with less than half that amplitude.

  8. Earthquake related tsunami hazard along the western coast of Thailand

    F. Løvholt


    Full Text Available The primary background for the present study was a project to assist the authorities in Thailand with development of plans for how to deal with the future tsunami risk in both short and long term perspectives, in the wake of the devastating 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami. The study is focussed on defining and analyzing a number of possible future earthquake scenarios (magnitudes 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5 with associated return periods, each one accompanied by specific tsunami modelling. Along the most affected part of the western coast of Thailand, the 2004 tsunami wave caused a maximum water level ranging from 5 to 15 m above mean sea level. These levels and their spatial distributions have been confirmed by detailed numerical simulations. The applied earthquake source is developed based on available seismological and geodetic inversions, and the simulation using the source as initial condition agree well with sea level records and run-up observations. A conclusion from the study is that another megathrust earthquake generating a tsunami affecting the coastline of western Thailand is not likely to occur again for several hundred years. This is in part based on the assumption that the Southern Andaman Microplate Boundary near the Simeulue Islands constitutes a geologic barrier that will prohibit significant rupture across it, and in part on the decreasing subduction rates north of the Banda Ache region. It is also concluded that the largest credible earthquake to be prepared for along the part of the Sunda-Andaman arc that could affect Thailand, is within the next 50–100 years an earthquake of magnitude 8.5, which is expected to occur with more spatial and temporal irregularity than the megathrust events. Numerical simulations have shown such earthquakes to cause tsunamis with maximum water levels up to 1.5–2.0 m along the western coast of Thailand, possibly 2.5–3.0 m on a high tide. However, in a longer time perspective

  9. Specification of Tectonic Tsunami Sources Along the Eastern Aleutian Island Arc and Alaska Peninsula for Inundation Mapping and Hazard Assessment

    Suleimani, E.; Nicolsky, D.; Freymueller, J. T.; Koehler, R.


    The Alaska Earthquake Information Center conducts tsunami inundation mapping for coastal communities in Alaska along several segments of the Aleutian Megathrust, each having a unique seismic history and tsunami generation potential. Accurate identification and characterization of potential tsunami sources is a critical component of our project. As demonstrated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, correct estimation of the maximum size event for a given segment of the subduction zone is particularly important. In that event, unexpectedly large slip occurred approximately updip of the epicenter of the main shock, based on seafloor GPS and seafloor pressure gage observations, generating a much larger tsunami than anticipated. This emphasizes the importance of the detailed knowledge of the region-specific subduction processes, and using the most up-to-date geophysical data and research models that define the magnitude range of possible future tsunami events. Our study area extends from the eastern half of the 1957 rupture zone to Kodiak Island, covering the 1946 and 1938 rupture areas, the Shumagin gap, and the western part of the 1964 rupture area. We propose a strategy for generating worst-case credible tsunami scenarios for locations that have a short or nonexistent paleoseismic/paleotsunami record, and in some cases lack modern seismic and GPS data. The potential tsunami scenarios are built based on a discretized plate interface model fit to the Slab 1.0 model geometry. We employ estimates of slip deficit along the Aleutian Megathrust from GPS campaign surveys, the Slab 1.0 interface surface, empirical magnitude-slip relationships, and a numerical code that distributes slip among the subfault elements, calculates coseismic deformations and solves the shallow water equations of tsunami propagation and runup. We define hypothetical asperities along the megathrust and in down-dip direction, and perform a set of sensitivity model runs to identify coseismic deformation

  10. Development of a decision support system for tsunami evacuation: application to the Jiyang District of Sanya city in China

    Hou, Jingming; Yuan, Ye; Wang, Peitao; Ren, Zhiyuan; Li, Xiaojuan


    Major tsunami disasters often cause great damage in the first few hours following an earthquake. The possible severity of such events requires preparations to prevent tsunami disasters or mitigate them. This paper is an attempt to develop a decision support system for rapid tsunami evacuation for local decision makers. Based on the numerical results database of tsunami disasters, this system can quickly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time. Because numerical models are calculated in advance, this system can reduce decision-making time. Population distribution, as a vulnerability factor, was analyzed to identify areas of high risk for tsunami disasters. Combined with spatial data, this system can comprehensively analyze the dynamic and static evacuation process and identify problems that negatively impact evacuation, thus supporting the decision-making for tsunami evacuation in high-risk areas. When an earthquake and tsunami occur, this system can rapidly obtain the tsunami inundation and travel time and provide information to assist with tsunami evacuation operations.

  11. Tsunami data assimilation of Cascadia seafloor pressure gauge records from the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake

    Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Sheehan, Anne F.; Satake, Kenji; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Mulia, Iyan Eka; Maeda, Takuto


    We use tsunami waveforms recorded on a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges offshore Oregon and California from the 2012 Haida Gwaii, Canada, earthquake to simulate the performance of two different real-time tsunami-forecasting methods. In the first method, the tsunami source is first estimated by inversion of recorded tsunami waveforms. In the second method, the array data are assimilated to reproduce tsunami wavefields. These estimates can be used for forecasting tsunami on the coast. The dense seafloor array provides critical data for both methods to produce timeliness (>30 min lead time) and accuracy in both timing and amplitude (>94% confidence) tsunami forecasts. Real-time tsunami data on dense arrays and data assimilation can be tested as a possible new generation tsunami warning system.

  12. Generation of life events in bipolar spectrum disorders: a re-examination and extension of the stress generation theory.

    Bender, Rachel E; Alloy, Lauren B; Sylvia, Louisa G; Urosevic, Snezana; Abramson, Lyn Y


    The extent to which stress generation occurs in bipolar spectrum disorders (BSD) is not well understood. The present study examined whether 75 BSD participants experienced elevated rates of behavior-dependent life events, as compared with 38 normal control participants. Within the BSD group, we also examined whether depressive or hypomanic symptoms prospectively predicted increases in various types of negative and positive life events. Results indicated that BSD participants experienced overall increases in behavior-dependent events over the follow-up, as compared with normal controls. At the symptom level, the event generation process occurred in more specific event domains. Results suggest that the stress generation theory of unipolar depression can be extended to BSD and that the type of generated events may be polarity-specific.

  13. Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps

    Lorito, S.; Selva, J.; Basili, R.; Romano, F.; Tiberti, M. M.; Piatanesi, A.


    Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor displacement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (HMax) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these `linear' SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate `non-linear' probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75-80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.

  14. Economic impacts of the SAFRR tsunami scenario in California: Chapter H in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Wein, Anne; Rose, Adam; Sue Wing, Ian; Wei, Dan


    to peak at ‒1.63 percent in the second quarter after the event and stagnate for the rest of the year. The majority of the economic impacts are attributed to the tsunami rather than the earthquake. The hardest hit sectors are identified as agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, retail, and tourism. Other relevant studies have focused on the economic impacts of threats that close POLA and POLB. We find one analysis of a potential tsunami scenario affecting the California economy through disruption of port operations. Borrero and others (2005) estimated economic impacts to the southern California economy of $7 to $40 billion from a locally generated tsunami that closes POLA and POLB for as much as 1 year. There have also been several studies of the economic impacts of non-tsunami events affecting POLA and POLB. Analyses of an 11-day labor lockout produced a range of estimated national impacts of as much as $1.94 billion/day (Park and others 2008, Martin Associates 2001). Examination of a potential terrorist attack that closes the San Pedro port for 1 month yielded a $29 billion impact to the California economy (Park, 2008). These studies have reinforced the importance of recognizing economic resilience in economic impact analyses. Hall (2004) criticized the upper-end estimate of national economic impacts from the labor lockout based on model shortcomings that neglected short-run substitution behavior and fixed the long-run economic behaviors. Following the 2011 Japanese tsunami, resilience was observed in the forms of rapid recovery of manufacturing sectors, energy conservation, and insurance (Kajitani and others, 2013).

  15. An event generator for simulations of complex β-decay experiments

    Jordan, D.; Algora, A.; Tain, J. L.


    This article describes a Monte Carlo event generator for the design, optimization and performance characterization of beta decay spectroscopy experimental set-ups. The event generator has been developed within the Geant4 simulation architecture and provides new features and greater flexibility in comparison with the current available decay generator.


    Zygmunt Kowalik


    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate important dynamics defining tsunami enhancement in the coastal regions and related to interaction with tides. Observations and computations of the Indian Ocean Tsunami usually show amplifications of the tsunami in the near-shore regions due to water shoaling. Additionally, numerous observations depicted quite long ringing of tsunami oscillations in the coastal regions, suggesting either local resonance or the local trapping of the tsunami energy. In the real ocean, the short-period tsunami wave rides on the longer-period tides. The question is whether these two waves can be superposed linearly for the purpose of determining the resulting sea surface height (SSH or rather in the shallow water they interact nonlinearly, enhancing/reducing the total sea level and currents. Since the near–shore bathymetry is important for the run-up computation, Weisz and Winter (2005 demonstrated that the changes of depth caused by tides should not be neglected in tsunami run-up considerations. On the other hand, we hypothesize that much more significant effect of the tsunami-tide interaction should be observed through the tidal and tsunami currents. In order to test this hypothesis we apply a simple set of 1-D equations of motion and continuity to demonstrate the dynamics of tsunami and tide interaction in the vicinity of the shelf break for two coastal domains: shallow waters of an elongated inlet and narrow shelf typical for deep waters of the Gulf of Alaska.

  17. Tsunami Prediction and Earthquake Parameters Estimation in the Red Sea

    Sawlan, Zaid A


    Tsunami concerns have increased in the world after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Consequently, tsunami models have been developed rapidly in the last few years. One of the advanced tsunami models is the GeoClaw tsunami model introduced by LeVeque (2011). This model is adaptive and consistent. Because of different sources of uncertainties in the model, observations are needed to improve model prediction through a data assimilation framework. Model inputs are earthquake parameters and topography. This thesis introduces a real-time tsunami forecasting method that combines tsunami model with observations using a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble Kalman smoother. The filter is used for state prediction while the smoother operates smoothing to estimate the earthquake parameters. This method reduces the error produced by uncertain inputs. In addition, state-parameter EnKF is implemented to estimate earthquake parameters. Although number of observations is small, estimated parameters generates a better tsunami prediction than the model. Methods and results of prediction experiments in the Red Sea are presented and the prospect of developing an operational tsunami prediction system in the Red Sea is discussed.

  18. Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean

    Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.


    Orleans, LA; and Bermuda as part of the U.S. tsunami warning system expansion. DART systems consist of an anchored seafloor pressure recorder (BPR) and a companion moored surface buoy for real-time communications. The new stations are a second-generation design (DART II) equipped with two- way satellite communications that allow NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers to set stations in event mode in anticipation of possible tsunamis or retrieve the high-resolution (15-s intervals) data in one-hour blocks for detailed analysis. Combined with development of sophisticated wave propagation and site-specific inundation models, the DART data are being used to forecast wave heights for at-risk coastal communities. NOAA expects to deploy a total of 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and 7 in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions). The seismic and DART networks are two components in a comprehensive and fully-operational global observing system to detect and warn the public of earthquake and tsunami threats. NOAA and USGS are working together to make important strides in enhancing communication networks so residents and visitors can receive earthquake and tsunami watches and warnings around the clock.

  19. Top quark event modelling and generators in CMS

    Bilin, Bugra


    State-of-the-art theoretical predictions accurate to next-to-leading order QCD interfaced with {\\sc pythia} and {\\sc herwig} are tested by comparing the unfolded $t\\bar{t}$ differential data collected with the CMS detector at 8 TeV and 13 TeV. These predictions are also compared with the measurements of underlying event activity distributions accompanying ${\\rm t\\bar{t}}$ events. Furthermore, predictions of beyond NLO accuracy in QCD are compared with the data.

  20. Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Source regions of concern to U.S. interests derived from NOAA Tsunami Forecast Model Development

    Eble, M. C.; uslu, B. U.; Wright, L.


    Synthetic tsunamis generated from source regions around the Pacific Basin are analyzed in terms of their relative impact on United States coastal locations.. The region of tsunami origin is as important as the expected magnitude and the predicted inundation for understanding tsunami hazard. The NOAA Center for Tsunami Research has developed high-resolution tsunami models capable of predicting tsunami arrival time and amplitude of waves at each location. These models have been used to conduct tsunami hazard assessments to assess maximum impact and tsunami inundation for use by local communities in education and evacuation map development. Hazard assessment studies conducted for Los Angeles, San Francisco, Crescent City, Hilo, and Apra Harbor are combined with results of tsunami forecast model development at each of seventy-five locations. Complete hazard assessment, identifies every possible tsunami variation from a pre-computed propagation database. Study results indicate that the Eastern Aleutian Islands and Alaska are the most likely regions to produce the largest impact on the West Coast of the United States, while the East Philippines and Mariana trench regions impact Apra Harbor, Guam. Hawaii appears to be impacted equally from South America, Alaska and the Kuril Islands.

  1. Real-time forecasting of near-field tsunamis based on source estimation from offshore tsunami data (Invited)

    Tsushima, H.; Hayashi, Y.; Maeda, K.; Yokota, T.


    predictions can be updated at short intervals of time, thus providing successive tsunami predictions with improved accuracy. The performances of our tsunami forecasting algorithms have been shown by the application to the past tsunami events occurring around Japan such as the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (Mw 8.3) and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0). Towards the practical use of our forecasting algorithm, we developed a prototype system in which the algorithm is installed. The system consists of dedicated software, hardware and database system. The software controls real-time forecasting analyses. Once seismic magnitude fed into the system exceeds the pre-defined threshold, the forecasting calculation starts automatically and is carried out repeatedly at short intervals by renewing the offshore tsunami waveform data. The figures of the forecasting results are produced automatically and a user can view them with a Web browser. The hardware consists of servers for real-time analyses and large amounts of storage for the database system of Green's functions. The Green's function database has been prepared for the sea area along the Japan Trench and Nankai Trough where many large earthquakes occur. The examples of the application of the system will also be presented at the meeting.

  2. Marin Tsunami (video)

    Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine


    Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. The Marin coast could be struck by a tsunami. Whether you live in Marin County, visit the beaches, or rent or own a home near the coast, it is vital to understand the tsunami threat and take preparation seriously. Marin Tsunami tells the story of what several West Marin communities are doing to be prepared. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Marin Office of Emergency Services.

  3. Assessment of the tsunami-induced current hazard

    Lynett, Patrick J.; Borrero, Jose; Son, Sangyoung; Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin


    The occurrence of tsunami damage is not limited to events causing coastal inundation. Even without flooding, maritime assets are vulnerable to significant damage from strong currents and associated drag forces. While such impacts have been observed in the past, they have not been well studied in any context. Nearshore tsunami currents are governed by nonlinear and turbulent physics and often have large spatial and temporal variability making high-fidelity modeling particularly challenging. Furthermore, measured data for the validation of numerical simulations is limited, with few quality data sets appearing after recent tsunami events. In this paper, we present a systematic approach for the interpretation of measured tsunami-induced current impacts as well as a validation approach for simulation tools. The methods and results provided here lay the foundation for much needed efforts to assess tsunami hazards in ports and harbors.

  4. Handling of the Generation of Primary Events in Gauss, the LHCb Simulation Framework

    Corti, G; Brambach, T; Brook, N H; Gauvin, N; Harrison, K; Harrison, P; He, J; Ilten, P J; Jones, C R; Lieng, M H; Manca, G; Miglioranzi, S; Robbe, P; Vagnoni, V; Whitehead, M; Wishahi, J


    The LHCb simulation application, Gauss, consists of two independent phases, the generation of the primary event and the tracking of particles produced in the experimental setup. For the LHCb experimental program it is particularly important to model B meson decays: the EvtGen code developed in CLEO and BaBar has been chosen and customized for non coherent B production as occuring in pp collisions at the LHC. The initial proton-proton collision is provided by a different generator engine, currently Pythia 6 for massive production of signal and generic pp collisions events. Beam gas events, background events originating from proton halo, cosmics and calibration events for different detectors can be generated in addition to pp collisions. Different generator packages are available in the physics community or specifically developed in LHCb, and are used for the different purposes. Running conditions affecting the events generated such as the size of the luminous region, the number of collisions occuring in a bunc...

  5. Real-time tsunami inundation forecasting and damage mapping towards enhancing tsunami disaster resiliency

    Koshimura, S.; Hino, R.; Ohta, Y.; Kobayashi, H.; Musa, A.; Murashima, Y.


    With use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, a project is underway to establish a new system of real-time tsunami inundation forecasting, damage estimation and mapping to enhance society's resilience in the aftermath of major tsunami disaster. The system consists of fusion of real-time crustal deformation monitoring/fault model estimation by Ohta et al. (2012), high-performance real-time tsunami propagation/inundation modeling with NEC's vector supercomputer SX-ACE, damage/loss estimation models (Koshimura et al., 2013), and geo-informatics. After a major (near field) earthquake is triggered, the first response of the system is to identify the tsunami source model by applying RAPiD Algorithm (Ohta et al., 2012) to observed RTK-GPS time series at GEONET sites in Japan. As performed in the data obtained during the 2011 Tohoku event, we assume less than 10 minutes as the acquisition time of the source model. Given the tsunami source, the system moves on to running tsunami propagation and inundation model which was optimized on the vector supercomputer SX-ACE to acquire the estimation of time series of tsunami at offshore/coastal tide gauges to determine tsunami travel and arrival time, extent of inundation zone, maximum flow depth distribution. The implemented tsunami numerical model is based on the non-linear shallow-water equations discretized by finite difference method. The merged bathymetry and topography grids are prepared with 10 m resolution to better estimate the tsunami inland penetration. Given the maximum flow depth distribution, the system performs GIS analysis to determine the numbers of exposed population and structures using census data, then estimates the numbers of potential death and damaged structures by applying tsunami fragility curve (Koshimura et al., 2013). Since the tsunami source model is determined, the model is supposed to complete the estimation within 10 minutes. The results are disseminated as mapping products to

  6. Submarine slope earthquake-induced instability and associated tsunami generation potential along the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (offshore eastern Sicily, Italy)

    Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano


    The stability analysis of offshore margins is an important step for the assessment of natural hazard: the main challenge is to evaluate the potential slope failures and the consequent occurrence of submarine tsunamigenic landslides to mitigate the potential coastal damage to inhabitants and infrastructures. But the limited geotechnical knowledge of the underwater soil and the controversial scientific interpretation of the tectonic units make it often difficult to carry out this type of analysis reliably. We select the Hyblean-Malta Escarpment (HME), the main active geological structure offshore eastern Sicily, because the amount of data from historical chronicles, the records about strong earthquakes and tsunami, and the numerous geological offshore surveys carried out in recent years make the region an excellent scenario to evaluate slope failures, mass movements triggered by earthquakes and the consequent tsunamis. We choose several profiles along the HME and analyse their equilibrium conditions using the Minimun Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method (Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008; Paparo et al. 2013), that is based on the limit-equilibrium theory. Considering the morphological and geotechnical features of the offshore slopes, we prove that large-earthquake shaking may lead some zones of the HME to instability, we evaluate the expected volumes involved in sliding and compute the associated landslide-tsunami through numerical tsunami simulations. This work was carried out in the frame of the EU Project called ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe (Grant 603839, 7th FP, ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  7. Influence of hydrodynamic parameters on tsunami run-up uncertainty induced by earthquake random slip distribtutions

    Løvholt, Finn; Kim, Jihwan; Pedersen, Geir; Harbitz, Carl


    The standard approach in forward modeling of earthquake tsunamis usually assume a uniform slip pattern. This is assumption is used both in deterministic and probabilistic models. However, the slip distribution for an earthquake is subject to (aleatory) uncertainty, and consequently the induced tsunami run-up will have an uncertainty range even given the same moment magnitude and hypocentre earthquake location. Here, we present studies of run-up variability due to stochastic earthquake slip variation in both two and three dimensions. The approach taken is fully idealized, although we draw upon the experience from two of the most destructive events the last hundred years, namely the Mw8 1976 Moro Gulf earthquake and tsunami as well as the Mw9 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. The former event is used to design the two-dimensional stochastic simulations, and the latter event the three-dimensional simulations. Our primary focus is not reproduce past run-up, but rather to investigate how the hydrodynamics influence uncertainty. These quantities include among others the non-hydrodynamic response during generation, frequency dispersion, friction from the seabed, and wave-breaking. We simulate tsunamis for an ensemble of synthetic random slip over an idealized shelf geometry broken into linear segments. The uncertainty propagation from source to run-up for the two different cases are discussed and compared. As demonstrated, both the dimensionality and the earthquake parameters influence the contributions of the hydrodynamic parameters on the uncertainty. Further work will be needed to explore the transitional behaviour between the two very different cases displayed here. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603839 (Project ASTARTE).

  8. Using present-day patterns of interseismic coupling to model the C.E. 1707 Hōei earthquake and simulate tsunami inundation of Lake Ryuuoo in the Bungo Channel, southwestern Japan

    Baranes, H. E.; Woodruff, J. D.; Loveless, J. P.; Cheng, W.; Weiss, R.; Kanamaru, K.


    The C.E. 1707 Hōei event is often considered the worst-case scenario for a Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami impacting southwestern Japan, and recent estimates of the earthquake's magnitude have exceeded MW 9. However, when paired with tsunami simulations, previously published earthquake models for the event fail to match sedimentological and historical records of 1707 tsunami height in Shikoku and Kyushu. Specifically, models do not produce a sufficiently large tsunami in the northern Bungo Channel and Seto Inland Sea without also over-predicting tsunami heights along the open Pacific coastlines of Shikoku and Kyushu. Here, we apply a newly developed rupture model that uses present-day patterns of geodetically imaged interseismic coupling to inform patterns in coseismic slip. Along the southwestern extent of the plate interface (the Hyuga-nada area), there is a region of weak coupling up-dip along the trench axis and a region of strong coupling down-dip beneath Shikoku and Kyushu. Following this pattern, the new earthquake model produces less coseismic uplift offshore and greater subsidence in an inland region that includes the Bungo Channel. This combination of regional subsidence and a tsunami wave more focused to the Bungo Channel results in inundation patterns more consistent with historical and sedimentological observations in the Hyuga-nada area. We also run the tsunami simulation on a high-resolution grid around Lake Ryuuoo, a back-barrier lake in the northern Bungo Channel that contains a marine overwash deposit from the 1707 tsunami. We apply a simple sediment transport model to demonstrate that the coupling-based rupture scenario produces flow over Lake Ryuuoo's barrier capable of transporting the maximum grain size observed in the lake's 1707 deposit. These findings suggest that spatial trends in our present-day coupling model are more consistent with inundation patterns observed for large tsunamis generated by coseismic rupture along the Nankai

  9. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.


    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  10. Tsunami earthquake can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench—Historical and geological evidence for the 1677 earthquake and tsunami

    Yanagisawa, H.; Goto, K.; Sugawara, D.; Kanamaru, K.; Iwamoto, N.; Takamori, Y.


    Since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the mechanisms of large earthquakes along the Japan Trench have been intensely investigated. However, characteristics of tsunami earthquakes, which trigger unusually large tsunami, remain unknown. The earthquake of 4 November 1677 was a tsunami earthquake striking the southern part of the Japan Trench. Its source mechanism remains unclear. This study elucidates the fault slip and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake and tsunami based on integrated analyses of historical documents, tsunami deposits, and numerical simulation. Geological survey results, the analytical results of thickness and grain size distributions and diatoms, revealed that tsunami deposits in a small pond at 11 m elevation were probably formed by the 1677 event. This finding and historical descriptions are useful as important constraint conditions to estimate unusually large fault slips and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake. Numerical simulation results reveal that 8.34-8.63 moment magnitude with the large 11-16 m slip area is necessary to satisfy the constraint conditions. This fault slip and magnitude are equivalent to those of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake: a well-known tsunami earthquake in the northern part of the Japan Trench. We therefore conclude that a tsunami earthquake of moment magnitude 8.3-8.6 with unusually large slip can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench. This point should be considered for future tsunami risk assessment along the Japan Trench and along any trench having similar tectonic settings to those of the Japan Trench.

  11. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.


    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  12. Disturbance of shallow marine soft-bottom environments and megabenthos assemblages by a huge tsunami induced by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

    Koji Seike

    Full Text Available Huge tsunami waves associated with megathrust earthquakes have a severe impact on shallow marine ecosystems. We investigated the impact of a tsunami generated by the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake on the seafloor and large benthic animals in muddy and sandy ria coasts (Otsuchi and Funakoshi bays in northeastern Japan. We conducted underwater field surveys using scuba equipment in water depths of <20 m before the tsunami (September 2010 and after the tsunami (September 2011 and September 2012. During the study period, episodic changes in topography and grain-size composition occurred on the seafloor of the study area. Megabenthos sampling revealed a distinct pattern of distribution succession for each benthic species. For example, the protobranch bivalve Yoldia notabilis (Bivalvia: Nuculanidae and the heterodont bivalve Felaniella usta (Bivalvia: Ungulinidae disappeared after the tsunami event, whereas the distribution of the venus clam Gomphina melanaegis (Bivalvia: Veneridae remained unchanged. In addition, the patterns of succession for a single species, such as the giant button top shell Umbonium costatum (Gastropoda: Trochidae and the heart urchin Echinocardium cordatum (Echinoidea: Loveniidae, varied between the two bays studied. Our data also show that reestablishment of some benthic animal populations began within 18 months of the tsunami disturbance.

  13. Book review: Physics of tsunamis

    Geist, Eric L.


    “Physics of Tsunamis”, second edition, provides a comprehensive analytical treatment of the hydrodynamics associated with the tsunami generation process. The book consists of seven chapters covering 388 pages. Because the subject matter within each chapter is distinct, an abstract appears at the beginning and references appear at the end of each chapter, rather than at the end of the book. Various topics of tsunami physics are examined largely from a theoretical perspective, although there is little information on how the physical descriptions are applied in numerical models.“Physics of Tsunamis”, by B. W. Levin and M. A. Nosov, Second Edition, Springer, 2016; ISBN-10: 33-1933106X, ISBN-13: 978-331933-1065

  14. Crossing Thresholds - Human Responses to Tsunami Forcing in the Pacific

    Goff, J. R.; Chague-Goff, C.


    The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami caused widespread devastation to coastal communities in Japan. This event however was merely the latest in a long line of similar occurrences throughout the Pacific over time. All the recent large tsunamis have had their predecessors, and a growing database of palaeotsunamis in the Pacific suggests that several past events have been either similar in magnitude or greater than their historical counterparts. Not only are we gathering data concerning Pacific palaeotsunamis but we are also identifying contemporaneous punctuated histories of changing human settlement patterns across the Pacific. In particular, the almost two millennia 'long pause' in eastward Polynesian migration and the abandonment of long distance sea-voyaging in the 15th century. It is suggested that large palaeotsunamis and their generating mechanisms forced major societal responses. Given the unquestioned impacts of recent tsunamis on human societies, it is reasonable to suggest that past societal responses can be used as proxies for contemporaneous environmental forcing in those parts of the world where independent evidence of the effects of these events is still being gathered. In the Pacific there are a range of responses that extend well beyond the abandonment of long distance sea-voyaging such as the outbreak of region-wide conflict and the associated abandonment of settlements in exposed (coastal) locations. The contemporaneity of these effects across a vast region requires a driver that is external to particular island groups. Given that this must have impacted coastal resources severely and enduringly, the only possibility is that this driver was of oceanic origin. This hypothesis is compelling when considered alongside the growing database of more conventional lines of evidence. The question therefore is how well are similar threshold responses recognised throughout the World? Are there similar region-wide responses that have been pigeonholed under the

  15. Effect of submarine canyons on tsunami heights, currents and run-up off the southeast coast of India

    JayaKumar, S.; ManiMurali, R.; Baldock, T.E.

    the coast are not examined. Tsunami propagation and height Snapshots of propagation of the tsunami front are studied at various time intervals representing important events, i.e. (i) tsunami initial wave crest reaching the foot of the canyon at 02 : 57... tsunami height located 14 km away from the coast. A snapshot of the tsunami profile during this time is not included. Till the initial tsunami front with ampli- tude 0.1 m reached the foot of the canyon and ridge, located about 45 km from coast...

  16. Origin of the "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014: Data assessment and numerical modelling

    Sepic, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.


    During 23 to 27 June 2014, several locations in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea were hit by destructive tsunami-like waves. Analysis of synoptic conditions, air pressure and sea level records indicated that all these events were meteorological tsunamis, i.e. tsunami-like waves generated by short-lasting (a few tens of minutes) but intense air pressure disturbances. The north-western Black Sea was one of the regions impacted: at approximately noon on 27 June a 1-2 m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk. Several people were injured and taken to hospital. Throughout the day, a distinct meteotsunamigenic synoptic pattern, accompanied by pronounced air pressure oscillations, was observed over the Black Sea, 150 to 300 km south of Odessa, stretching from Romania in the west to Crimea in the east. Right at the time of the event, a 1-2 hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypothesis: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa; (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating off-shore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa. Surprisingly, 1.5 times higher maximum modelled sea level heights in Odessa were obtained in the second set of experiments. The resulting increase was 10 cm per 1 hPa of air pressure change for an offshore disturbance and 7 cm per 1 hPa for a direct forcing experiment. The numerical model decisively confirms the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and implies that intensified long-ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. Upon hitting the shelf-break, modelled ocean waves detached from the air pressure disturbance and reflected northwards. Following the reflection, the waves

  17. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    T. Schöne


    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  18. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.


    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  19. A method to estimate expected fatalities and economic loss of buildings in an urban environment as a step toward tsunami risk assessment: an application to the city of Siracusa, Italy.

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Accorsi, Eleonora; Tinti, Stefano


    Siracusa, an important city of the south-east Sicily, is located in an area highly exposed to the danger of tsunami, local and remote. Among the many events that affected this area those with a major effect are the AD 365 tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Western Hellenic Arc, the event of 11 January 1693, following an earthquake in the area of Augusta, and the tsunami of 28 December 1908 generated in the Messina strait. The aim of this study is to evaluate the number of exposed people and of fatalities as well as the type of damage to constructions and the associated loss of economic value in case of a tsunami, based on a simple tsunami scenario, i.e. on assuming a uniform inundation level of 5 m. This figure is considered appropriate for this preliminary tsunami loss analysis since it is compatible with historical tsunami observations and is also supported by recent tsunami hazard studies carried out for this area (Armigliato et al., 2015). The main physical tsunami parameter used in computations is the water column, which is merely the difference between the assumed inundation level and the topographic altitude. We use numerical geo-referenced 1:2000 maps providing a database of constructions in the area of Siracusa together with data from national and local statistical institutions to make estimates on the number and type of buildings and on the number of people that may be found in the inundation area in different periods of the year, discriminating between residents and tourists. Using a variant of the Terrier et al. (2012) table and tsunami mortality curves proposed by Koshimura et al. (2009) we are able to estimate expected fatalities with tsunami inundation reaching at most the first floor of buildings. We calculate economic loss by taking into account both residential buildings and commercial-industrial structures and data from the real estate market. This study is funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for

  20. Meteorological tsunamis along the East Coast of the United States

    Rabinovich, A.


    Tsunami-like intense sea level oscillations are common along the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances, including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, pressure jumps, squalls, and gales, that each set up a local, time-limited barotropic response in the affected body of water. These meteorologically induced waves have the same temporal and spatial scales as their seismically generated counterparts and inflict comparable destructions. Observed around the globe, these devastating waves are known locally as "abiki" in Nagaski Bay (Japan), "rissaga" in Spain, "šćiga" along the Croation Coast bordering the Adriatic Sea, "milghuba" in Malta, and "marrobbio" in Italy. Collectively, they may be considered as "meteorological tsunamis" or "meteotsunamis." The updated NOAA tide gauge network with 1 min sampling enabled us to examine resonant amplifications of specific events observed in 2007-2012 and physical properties of meteotsunamis impacting the United States East Coast in general. Of particular interest and focus was the "derecho" event of June 29 - July 2, 2012.

  1. Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

    Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.


    Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code

  2. The influence of land cover roughness on the results of high resolution tsunami inundation modeling

    G. Kaiser


    Full Text Available In this paper a local case study is presented in which detailed inundation simulations have been performed to support damage analysis and risk assessment related to the 2004 tsunami in Phang Nga and Phuket, Thailand. Besides tsunami sources, bathymetry and topography, bottom roughness induced by vegetation and built environment is considered to influence inundation characteristics, such as water depths or flow velocities and therefore attracts major attention in this work. Plenty of information available on the 2004 tsunami event, high-resolution satellite imagery and extensive field measurements to derive land cover information and forest stand parameters facilitated the generation of topographic datasets, land cover maps and site-specific Manning values for the most prominent land cover classes in the study areas. The numerical models ComMIT and Mike 21 FM were used to hindcast the observed tsunami inundation and to draw conclusions on the influence of land cover on inundation patterns. Results show a strong influence of dense vegetation on flow velocities, which were reduced by up to 50% by mangroves, while the inundation extent is influenced only to a lesser extent. In urban areas, the disregard of buildings in the model led to a significant overestimation of the inundation extent. Hence different approaches to consider buildings were used and analyzed in the model. The case study highlights the importance and quantifies the effects of considering land cover roughness in inundation simulations used for local risk assessment.


    Alessandro Annunziato


    Full Text Available The Tsunami Assessment Modeling System was developed by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre, in order to serve Tsunami early warning systems such as the Global Disaster Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS in the evaluation of possible consequences by a Tsunami of seismic nature. The Tsunami Assessment Modeling System is currently operational and is calculating in real time all the events occurring in the world, calculating the expected Tsunami wave height and identifying the locations where the wave height should be too high. The first part of the paper describes the structure of the system, the underlying analytical models and the informatics arrangement; the second part shows the activation of the system and the results of the calculated analyses. The final part shows future development of this modeling tool.

  4. Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

    Wood, Nathan; Soulard, Christopher


    Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami

  5. Can Asteroid Airbursts Cause Dangerous Tsunami?.

    Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    I have performed a series of high-resolution hydrocode simulations to generate “source functions” for tsunami simulations as part of a proof-of-principle effort to determine whether or not the downward momentum from an asteroid airburst can couple energy into a dangerous tsunami in deep water. My new CTH simulations show enhanced momentum multiplication relative to a nuclear explosion of the same yield. Extensive sensitivity and convergence analyses demonstrate that results are robust and repeatable for simulations with sufficiently high resolution using adaptive mesh refinement. I have provided surface overpressure and wind velocity fields to tsunami modelers to use as time-dependent boundary conditions and to test the hypothesis that this mechanism can enhance the strength of the resulting shallow-water wave. The enhanced momentum result suggests that coupling from an over-water plume-forming airburst could be a more efficient tsunami source mechanism than a collapsing impact cavity or direct air blast alone, but not necessarily due to the originally-proposed mechanism. This result has significant implications for asteroid impact risk assessment and airburst-generated tsunami will be the focus of a NASA-sponsored workshop at the Ames Research Center next summer, with follow-on funding expected.

  6. Did a submarine landslide contribute to the 2011 Tohoku tsunami?

    Tappin, David R.


    Many studies have modeled the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 as being due entirely to slip on an earthquake fault, but the following discrepancies suggest that further research is warranted. (1) Published models of tsunami propagation and coastal impact underpredict the observed runup heights of up to 40 m measured along the coast of the Sanriku district in the northeast part of Honshu Island. (2) Published models cannot reproduce the timing and high-frequency content of tsunami waves recorded at three nearshore buoys off Sanriku, nor the timing and dispersion properties of the waveforms at offshore DART buoy #21418. (3) The rupture centroids obtained by tsunami inversions are biased about 60 km NNE of that obtained by the Global CMT Project. Based on an analysis of seismic and geodetic data, together with recorded tsunami waveforms, we propose that, while the primary source of the tsunami was the vertical displacement of the seafloor due to the earthquake, an additional tsunami source is also required. We infer the location of the proposed additional source based on an analysis of the travel times of higher-frequency tsunami waves observed at nearshore buoys. We further propose that the most likely additional tsunami source was a submarine mass failure (SMF—i.e., a submarine landslide). A comparison of pre- and post-tsunami bathymetric surveys reveals tens of meters of vertical seafloor movement at the proposed SMF location, and a slope stability analysis confirms that the horizontal acceleration from the earthquake was sufficient to trigger an SMF. Forward modeling of the tsunami generated by a combination of the earthquake and the SMF reproduces the recorded on-, near- and offshore tsunami observations well, particularly the high-frequency component of the tsunami waves off Sanriku, which were not well simulated by previous models. The conclusion that a significant part of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami was generated by an SMF source has important implications for

  7. TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis

    Hammitzsch, M.; Necmioglu, O.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.; Comoglu, M.; Ozel, N. M.; Wächter, J.


    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), representing the Tsunami National Contact (TNC) and Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP) for Turkey, is one of the key partners in TRIDEC. KOERI is responsible for the operation of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) for Turkey and establishes Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider (CTWP) responsibilities for the NEAM region. Based on this profound experience, KOERI is contributing valuable requirements to the overall TRIDEC system and is responsible for the definition and development of feasible tsunami-related scenarios. However, KOERI's most important input focuses on testing and evaluating the TRIDEC system according to specified evaluation and validation criteria. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools

  8. Digital elevation models in the marine domain: investigating the offshore tsunami hazard from submarine landslides

    Tappin, David R.


    Over the past 30 years multibeam bathymetry has replaced single-beam echo soundings as the main tool used to map the sea floor. Developed as a military tool its expansion into the scientific domain has revolutionized our ability not only to visualise seabed morphology, but also to interpret the active processes taking place at and beneath the seabed. DEMs derived from multibeam are now comparable to those on land. One aspect of the improved seabed visualization is in mapping marine geohazards, in this instance, submarine landslides. One of the first multibeam surveys actually programmed to investigate an actual event was in 1999 after the tsunami on the north coast of Papua New Guinea killed 2,200 people. It was a wake-up call, as the relatively small magnitude earthquake - 7.1 - could not generate tsunami waves up to 15m high at the coast. The submarine slump was clearly visible on the multibeam and associated seabed sampling confirmed that it was a recent event. Subsequent research proved that the landslide generated the tsunami as, again for the first time the multibeam was used as the basis for the tsunami simulations. Since 1999 many submarine landslides have been mapped, but not all have an associated identified tsunami. Some landslides are associated with earthquakes and this causes confusion if there is an anomalously large tsunami for example Alaska, 1946 and Java, 2006. Others are suspected of causing a tsunami, but their evidence on the seabed is hard to identify as with Messina, 1908. The most confusing recent tsunami event has been 2011 Japan tsunami, where a submarine landslide to the north of the main rupture is almost certainly responsible for the 40m high coastal waves that struck northern Honshu. The seabed has now been mapped on a broadscale by satellite gravity, but maps from this method cannot identify any but the largest seabed morphologies; most submarine landslides cannot therefore be recognised. Large seabed areas still remain unmapped to

  9. Comparison of hybrid and pure Monte Carlo shower generators on an event by event basis

    Allen, Jeff; Farrar, Glennys


    SENECA is a hybrid air shower simulation written by H. Drescher that utilizes both Monte Carlo simulation and cascade equations. By using the cascade equations only in the high energy portion of the shower, where the shower is inherently one-dimensional, SENECA is able to utilize the advantages in speed from the cascade equations yet still produce complete, three dimensional particle distributions at ground level which capture the shower to shower variations coming from the early interactions. We present a comparison, on an event by event basis, of SENECA and CORSIKA, a well trusted MC simulation code. By using the same first interaction in both SENECA and CORSIKA, the effect of the cascade equations can be studied within a single shower, rather than averaged over many showers. Our study shows that for showers produced in this manner, SENECA agrees with CORSIKA to a very high accuracy with respect to densities, energies, and timing information for individual species of ground-level particles from both iron an...

  10. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile


    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  11. Tsunami Preparedness Along the U.S. West Coast (video)

    Filmed and edited by: Loeffler, Kurt; Gesell, Justine


    Tsunamis are a constant threat to the coasts of our world. Although tsunamis are infrequent along the West coast of the United States, it is possible and necessary to prepare for potential tsunami hazards to minimize loss of life and property. Community awareness programs are important, as they strive to create an informed society by providing education and training. This video about tsunami preparedness along the West coast distinguishes between a local tsunami and a distant event and focuses on the specific needs of each region. It offers guidelines for correct tsunami response and community preparedness from local emergency managers, first-responders, and leading experts on tsunami hazards and warnings, who have been working on ways of making the tsunami affected regions safer for the people and communities on a long-term basis. This video was produced by the US Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD), Marin Office of Emergency Services, and Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E).

  12. New study on the 1941 Gloria Fault earthquake and tsunami

    Baptista, Maria Ana; Miranda, Jorge Miguel; Batlló, Josep; Lisboa, Filipe; Luis, Joaquim; Maciá, Ramon


    The M ˜ 8.3-8.4 25 November 1941 was one of the largest submarine strike-slip earthquakes ever recorded in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic basin. This event occurred along the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary between the Azores and the Strait of Gibraltar. After the earthquake, the tide stations in the NE Atlantic recorded a small tsunami with maximum amplitudes of 40 cm peak to through in the Azores and Madeira islands. In this study, we present a re-evaluation of the earthquake epicentre location using seismological data not included in previous studies. We invert the tsunami travel times to obtain a preliminary tsunami source location using the backward ray tracing (BRT) technique. We invert the tsunami waveforms to infer the initial sea surface displacement using empirical Green's functions, without prior assumptions about the geometry of the source. The results of the BRT simulation locate the tsunami source quite close to the new epicentre. This fact suggests that the co-seismic deformation of the earthquake induced the tsunami. The waveform inversion of tsunami data favours the conclusion that the earthquake ruptured an approximately 160 km segment of the plate boundary, in the eastern section of the Gloria Fault between -20.249 and -18.630° E. The results presented here contribute to the evaluation of tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic basin.

  13. A new real-time tsunami detection algorithm

    Chierici, Francesco; Embriaco, Davide; Pignagnoli, Luca


    Real-time tsunami detection algorithms play a key role in any Tsunami Early Warning System. We have developed a new algorithm for tsunami detection based on the real-time tide removal and real-time band-pass filtering of seabed pressure recordings. The algorithm greatly increases the tsunami detection probability, shortens the detection delay and enhances detection reliability with respect to the most widely used tsunami detection algorithm, while containing the computational cost. The algorithm is designed to be used also in autonomous early warning systems with a set of input parameters and procedures which can be reconfigured in real time. We have also developed a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations to test the tsunami detection algorithms. The algorithm performance is estimated by defining and evaluating statistical parameters, namely the detection probability, the detection delay, which are functions of the tsunami amplitude and wavelength, and the occurring rate of false alarms. Pressure data sets acquired by Bottom Pressure Recorders in different locations and environmental conditions have been used in order to consider real working scenarios in the test. We also present an application of the algorithm to the tsunami event which occurred at Haida Gwaii on 28 October 2012 using data recorded by the Bullseye underwater node of Ocean Networks Canada. The algorithm successfully ran for test purpose in year-long missions onboard abyssal observatories, deployed in the Gulf of Cadiz and in the Western Ionian Sea.

  14. Helium, heat, and the generation of hydrothermal event plumes at mid-ocean ridges

    Lupton, John E.; Baker, Edward T.; Massoth, Gary J.


    Hydrothermal event plumes are unique water-column features observed over mid-ocean ridges, presumably generated by the sudden release of large volumes of hot, buoyant fluid. Although the specifics of event plume generation are unknown, event plumes have been attributed to the rapid emptying of a hydrothermal reservoir or to rapid heat extraction from a recently emplaced dike or seafloor lava flows. The chemical and thermal signatures of event plumes as compared to the underlying steady-state plumes offer important clues to the generation of event plumes. Event plumes have low 3He/heat ratios of ˜0.4 × 10-17 mol J-1, similar to vent fluids from mature hydrothermal systems. In contrast, the steady-state plumes found beneath the event plumes have elevated and variable 3He/heat ratios of 2 to 5 × 10-17 mol J-1. Fluids collected directly over fresh lava flows have even higher 3He/heat ratios of 2 to 8 × 10-17 mol J-1, up to 30 times the event plume values. These disparate 3He/heat ratios place strong constraints on models of event plume generation, especially models which rely on heat extraction from seafloor eruptions. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  15. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Makran considering recently suggested larger maximum magnitudes and sensitivity analysis for GNSS-based early warning

    Zamora, N.; Hoechner, A.; Babeyko, A. Y.


    Iran and Pakistan are countries frequently affected by destructive earthquakes, as for instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30 000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, nevertheless a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss the possiblity of rather rare huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We analyze the seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 100000 years. All the events are projected onto the plate interface using scaling relations and a tsunami model is run for every scenario. The tsunami hazard along the coast is computed and presented in the form of annual probability of exceedance, probabilistic tsunami height for different time periods and other measures. We show how the hazard reacts to variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and maximum magnitudes.We model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by using an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast by applying it to the 1945 event and by performing a sensitivity analysis.

  16. Event-by-event generation of vorticity in heavy-ion collisions

    Deng, Wei-Tian


    In a noncentral heavy-ion collision, the two colliding nuclei have finite angular momentum in the direction perpendicular to the reaction plane. After the collision, a fraction of the total angular momentum is retained in the produced hot quark-gluon matter and is manifested in the form of fluid shear. Such fluid shear creates finite flow vorticity. We study some features of such generated vorticity, including its strength, beam energy dependence, centrality dependence, and spatial distribution.


    Shaun Williams


    Full Text Available Ta’u, the easternmost inhabited island in the Samoan Islands archipelago, exhibits a series of down-faulted benches on its southern flank, believed to be the remnant of ~30 km3 catastrophic collapse. A historical map of Ta’u charted in 1839 during the United States Exploring Expedition, which did not show the benches, suggests that the event occurred less than 170 years ago. A collapse event of this magnitude would have generated a locally devastating tsunami, with possible impacts experienced at the regional level. However, no written or oral records of such an event exist. A number of key questions thus emerge, and formed the basis for this study. Did this event actually happen within the last 170 years, and if so, how and why could it have gone unnoticed? Or, is the event much older than the impression obtained from the literature? The catastrophic flank collapse was modeled using 100 m contour-resolution bathymetry data of the Ta’u region, coupled with rational assumptions made on the geometry of the failed mass. This enabled numerical landslide- tsunami simulation in the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT. The results indicate that if an event of this magnitude occurred in the last 170 years, it could not have gone unnoticed by local inhabitants. It thus seems likely that the initial survey conducted during the Exploring Expedition was inaccurate. Nevertheless, the well-preserved nature of the benches indicates collapse relatively recently and raises the possibility of future collapse.

  18. Possible worst-case tsunami scenarios around the Marmara Sea from combined earthquake and landslide sources

    Latcharote, Panon; Suppasri, Anawat; Imamura, Fumihiko; Aytore, Betul; Yalciner, Ahmet Cevdet


    This study evaluates tsunami hazards in the Marmara Sea from possible worst-case tsunami scenarios that are from submarine earthquakes and landslides. In terms of fault-generated tsunamis, seismic ruptures can propagate along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which has produced historical tsunamis in the Marmara Sea. Based on the past studies, which consider fault-generated tsunamis and landslide-generated tsunamis individually, future scenarios are expected to generate tsunamis, and submarine landslides could be triggered by seismic motion. In addition to these past studies, numerical modeling has been applied to tsunami generation and propagation from combined earthquake and landslide sources. In this study, tsunami hazards are evaluated from both individual and combined cases of submarine earthquakes and landslides through numerical tsunami simulations with a grid size of 90 m for bathymetry and topography data for the entire Marmara Sea region and validated with historical observations from the 1509 and 1894 earthquakes. This study implements TUNAMI model with a two-layer model to conduct numerical tsunami simulations, and the numerical results show that the maximum tsunami height could reach 4.0 m along Istanbul shores for a full submarine rupture of the NAF, with a fault slip of 5.0 m in the eastern and western basins of the Marmara Sea. The maximum tsunami height for landslide-generated tsunamis from small, medium, and large of initial landslide volumes (0.15, 0.6, and 1.5 km3, respectively) could reach 3.5, 6.0, and 8.0 m, respectively, along Istanbul shores. Possible tsunamis from submarine landslides could be significantly higher than those from earthquakes, depending on the landslide volume significantly. These combined earthquake and landslide sources only result in higher tsunami amplitudes for small volumes significantly because of amplification within the same tsunami amplitude scale (3.0-4.0 m). Waveforms from all the coasts around the Marmara Sea

  19. Forecasting database for the tsunami warning center for the western Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic basins

    Gailler, A.; Hebert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Hernandez, B.


    Improvements in the availability of sea-level observations and advances in numerical modeling techniques are increasing the potential for tsunami warnings to be based on numerical model forecasts. Numerical tsunami propagation and inundation models are well developed, but they present a challenge to run in real-time, partly due to computational limitations and also to a lack of detailed knowledge on the earthquake rupture parameters. A first generation model-based tsunami prediction system is being developed as part of the French Tsunami Warning Center that will be operational by mid 2012. It involves a pre-computed unit source functions database (i.e., a number of tsunami model runs that are calculated ahead of time and stored) corresponding to tsunami scenarios generated by a source of seismic moment 1.75E+19 N.m with a rectangular fault 25 km by 20 km in size and 1 m in slip. The faults of the unit functions are placed adjacent to each other, following the discretization of the main seismogenic faults bounding the western Mediterranean and North-East Atlantic basins. An authomatized composite scenarios calculation tool is implemented to allow the simulation of any tsunami propagation scenario (i.e., of any seismic moment). The strategy is based on linear combinations and scaling of a finite number of pre-computed unit source functions. The number of unit functions involved varies with the magnitude of the wanted composite solution and the combined wave heights are multiplied by a given scaling factor to produce the new arbitrary scenario. Uncertainty on the magnitude of the detected event and inaccuracy on the epicenter location are taken into account in the composite scenarios calculation. For one tsunamigenic event, the tool produces finally 3 warning maps (i.e., most likely, minimum and maximum scenarios) together with the rough decision matrix representation. A no-dimension code representation is chosen to show zones in the main axis of energy at the basin

  20. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    N. Horspool


    Full Text Available Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years, the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  1. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.


    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  2. The December 2002 volcanic activity at Stromboli: fall and tsunami deposits characterization

    Andronico, D.; Coltelli, M.; Corsaro, R. A.; Miraglia, L.; Pompilio, M.


    The volcano of Stromboli in the Aeolian Islands (Italy) was known since the Roman age as the "lighthouse" of the Mediterranean Sea, due to its persistent "Strombolian" activity resulting in a summit firelight. During its eruptive history, Stromboli displayed effusive activity and paroxysmal eruptions, too. Lava flows usually flood down the Sciara del Fuoco, a steep depression cutting the NW flank of the cone. Paroxysmals often eject large bombs which can injure the inhabited areas and more rarely form small pyroclastic or debris flows. On the evening of 28 December 2002, effusive activity began after 17 years from the Crater 1; a lava flow reached in about 30 minutes the sea, going down the Sciara del Fuoco. On 30 December, two landslides interested a wide sector of the Sciara del Fuoco, flowing down into the sea. The first one, at about 1.15 p.m., was smaller than the second event which occurred a few minutes later and caused the detachment towards the sea of a more consistent rock volume. This events generated strong tsunami waves which affected the coastline of most of the Aeolian Islands reaching the Milazzo port, about 50 km far. Up to 10 m high waves caused severe damages to the seaside of Stromboli and to the small buildings located at Ficogrande village. We sampled the tsunami sand deposits on the beach and within the houses and the ashes emitted before, and after the tsunami event. The deposits have been studied carrying out grain-size, component analysis, morphometric and compositional characterization. The resulting data allowed to investigate magma fragmentation mechanisms and, for the first time in Stromboli, to characterize the deposit correlated to a tsunami event.

  3. ISAJET: a Monte Carlo event generator for pp and anti pp interactions. Version 3

    Paige, F.E.; Protopopescu, S.D.


    ISAJET is a Monte Carlo computer program which simulates pp and anti pp reactions at high energy. It can generate minimum bias events representative of the total inelastic cross section, high PT hadronic events, and Drell-Yan events with a virtual ..gamma.., W/sup + -/, or Z/sup 0/. It is based on perturbative QCD and phenomeno-logical models for jet fragmentation.

  4. Where to look for tsunami deposits? A case study from the Santorini related tsunami and the 1956 tsunami at Palaikastro, Crete

    Qupty, Nairooz; Synalokis, Costas; MacGillvray, Alexander; Goodman-Tchernov, Beverly


    Searching within the shallow offshore zones for preserved tsunamiginic deposits has been demonstrated as a worthwhile and important means to identify and study its tsunami events. For example, research at Caesarea Maritima, Israel, recognized tsunamigenic deposits in shallow (less than 30 m) upper shelf offshore deposits, while the onland signature of the same events were still unidentified. In Palaikastros, Crete, Late Minoan period layers were reported on coastal cliffs, and eye-witness observations described tsunami run-up and inundation following the 1956 Amorgos earthquake. In an effort to find remnant deposits from these tsunami events, four cores were collected offshore. The cores were collected from different marine settings (which include river influence, posidonia rich seafloor, micro-morphological changes, etc.). On-land samples were also collected for comparison. Results from the offshore cores reveal two distinctive anomalous horizons. The deeper and older disturbance is most probably the post-depositional sedimentation just above the Santorini eruption deposit, and the shallower disturbance represents the 1956 AD tsunami event. Interestingly, no sedimentological evidence for the 1956 tsunami event was noticed in the coastal backshore. The sedimentological signatures of the two tsunami events were very different in the cores collected from the varied marine settings. In the cores collected immediately offshore from the river, the 1956 event is marked by what appears to be a massive flood-like deposit, rather than the coarse deposits seen elsewhere. Cores in the area of the posidonia-rich seafloor had the most subtle variations that could only be speculatively associated to the tsunamigenic layers. The Santorini tsunami sedimentological signatures in these cores were not significant. It is possible that the layers were reworked and washed away following their deposition, or rather, affected from stream inflow or sediments turbidation in posidonia

  5. ELRADGEN: Monte Carlo generator for radiative events in elastic electron-proton scattering

    Afanasiev, A V; Ilyichev, A N; Niczyporuk, B B


    We discuss the theoretical approach and practical algorithms for simulation of radiative events in elastic ep-scattering. A new Monte Carlo generator for real photon emission events in the process of elastic electron-proton scattering is presented. We perform a few consistency checks and present numerical results.

  6. Effects of self-generated versus experimenter-provided cues on the representation of future events.

    Neroni, Maria Adriana; Gamboz, Nadia; de Vito, Stefania; Brandimonte, Maria Antonella


    Most experimental studies of prospection focused on episodic forms of future events prompted by means of verbal cues. However, there is evidence suggesting that future events differ considerably according to whether they are produced in response to external, experimenter-provided verbal cues or they are self-generated. In the present study, we compared the quality, the phenomenal characteristics, the temporal distribution, and the content of imagined events prompted by experimenter-provided cues (i.e., cue-words and short verbal sentences) or elicited by means of verbal cues that were self-generated in an autobiographical fluency task. The results showed that future events prompted by means of self-generated cues contained fewer event-specific details than future events prompted by experimenter-provided cues. However, future events elicited by means of self-generated and by experimenter-provided cues did not differ with respect to their phenomenal characteristics. The temporal distribution and the thematic content of future representations were also affected by the type of cue used to elicit prospection. These results offer a holistic view of the properties of future thinking and suggest that the content and the characteristics of envisioned future events may be affected by the method used to elicit prospection.

  7. A Pilot Tsunami Inundation Forecast System for Australia

    Allen, Stewart C. R.; Greenslade, Diana J. M.


    The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) provides a tsunami warning service for Australia. Warnings are currently issued according to a technique that does not include explicit modelling at the coastline, including any potential coastal inundation. This paper investigates the feasibility of developing and implementing tsunami inundation modelling as part of the JATWC warning system. An inundation model was developed for a site in Southeast Australia, on the basis of the availability of bathymetric and topographic data and observations of past tsunamis. The model was forced using data from T2, the operational deep-water tsunami scenario database currently used for generating warnings. The model was evaluated not only for its accuracy but also for its computational speed, particularly with respect to operational applications. Limitations of the proposed forecast processes in the Australian context and areas requiring future improvement are discussed.

  8. Tsunamis and marine life

    Rao, D.V.S.; Ingole, B.S.; Tang, D.; Satyanarayan, B.; Zhao, H.

    The 26 December 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean exerted far reaching temporal and spatial impacts on marine biota. Our synthesis was based on satellite data acquired by the Laboratory for Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics (LED) of the South...

  9. Modeling of influence from remote tsunami at the coast of Sakhalin and Kuriles islands.

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet; Chernov, Anton; Kostenko, Irina


    The Far East coast of Russia (Kuriles islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka) is the area where the dangerous natural phenomena as tsunami is located. A lot of works are established for decreasing of tsunami's influence. Tsunami mapping and mitigation strategy are given for some regions. The centers of Tsunami Warning System are opened, enough plenty of records of a tsunami are collected. The properties of local tsunami are studied well. At the same time, the catastrophic event of the Indonesian tsunami, which had happened in December, 2004, when the sufficient waves have reached the coasts of Africa and South America, it is necessary to note, that the coats, which was far from the epicenter of earthquakes can be effected by catastrophic influence. Moreover, it is practically unique case, when using Tsunami Warning System can reduce the number of human victims to zero. Development of the computer technologies, numerical methods for the solution of systems of the nonlinear differential equations makes computer modeling real and hypothetical tsunamis is the basic method of studying features of distribution of waves in water areas and their influence at coast. Numerical modeling of distribution of historical tsunami from the seismic sources in the Pacific Ocean was observed. The events with an epicenter, remote from Far East coast of Russia were considered. The estimation of the remote tsunami waves propagation was developed. Impact force of tsunamis was estimated. The features of passage of tsunami through Kuril Straits were considered. The spectral analysis of records in settlements of Sakhalin and Kuriles is lead. NAMI-DANCE program was used for tsunami propagation numerical modeling. It is used finite element numerical schemes for Shallow Water Equations and Nonlinear-Dispersive Equations, with use Nested Grid.

  10. Elements of the tsunami precursors' detection physics

    Novik, Oleg; Ruzhin, Yuri; Ershov, Sergey; Volgin, Max; Smirnov, Fedor

    In accordance with the main physical principles and geophysical data, we formulated a nonlinear mathematical model of seismo-hydro-electromagnetic (EM) geophysical field interaction and calculated generation and propagation of elastic, EM, temperature and hydrodynamic seismically generated disturbances (i.e. signals) in the basin of a marginal sea. We show transferring of seismic and electromagnetic (EM) energy from the upper mantle beneath the sea into its depths and EM emission from the sea surface into the atmosphere. Basing on the calculated characteristics of the signals of different physical nature (computations correspond to measurements of other authors) we develop the project of a Lithosphere-Ocean-Atmosphere Monitoring System (LOAMS) including: a bottom complex, a moored ocean surface buoy complex, an observational balloon complex, and satellite complex. The underwater stations of the bottom complex of the LOAMS will record the earlier signals of seismic activation beneath a seafloor (the ULF EM signals outrun seismic ones, according to the above calculations) and localize the seafloor epicenter of an expected seaquake. These stations will be equipped, in particular, with: magnetometers, the lines for the electric field measurements, and magneto-telluric blocks to discover dynamics of physical parameters beneath a sea floor as signs of a seaquake and/or tsunami preparation process. The buoy and balloon complexes of the LOAMS will record the meteorological and oceanographic parameters' variations including changes of reflection from a sea surface (tsunami ‘shadows’) caused by a tsunami wave propagation. Cables of the balloon and moored buoy will be used as receiving antennas and for multidisciplinary measurements including gradients of the fields (we show the cases are possible when the first seismic EM signal will be registered by an antenna above a sea). Also, the project includes radio-tomography with satellite instrumentation and sounding of the

  11. Major Tsunamis of 1992 - Nicaragua and Indonesia

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — At 7:16 p.m. on September 1, 1992, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 generated a tsunami with waves between eight and fifteen meters high that struck twenty-six...


    Baranova N.A.


    Full Text Available The comparative numerical simulation of generation and propagation of tsunami waves generated by the source of the catastrophic 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan was performed based on the Okada model and the dynamic keyboard block model. The initial model is connected with the choice of orientation of longitudinal and transverse ruptures within the source region and the values of displacements along the main fault. A subsequent model is based on the premise that the initial stress distribution along the fault zone affects essentially the character of movements around the earthquake source and takes into account the stress-strain state of keyboard blocks. In the first case of the present study, the earthquake source was designated and constructed based on the parameters of the ten largest aftershocks within a finite time interval, while in the second case the source used included all aftershocks on the first day following the main event. Based on such comparative source simulations and far-field tsunami wave measurements, the results with both models were determined to have close similarities. However, in the near-field zone, the agreement with observable data was not as good. That can be attributed to inaccuracies in the placement of virtual tide gauges relative to real ones, as well as to features of bottom relief near the coast.

  13. KaTie: for parton-level event generation with k_T-dependent initial states

    van Hameren, A


    KaTie is a parton-level event generator for hadron scattering processes that can deal with partonic initial-state momenta with an explicit transverse momentum dependence causing them to be space-like. Provided with the necessary transverse momentum dependent parton density functions, it calculates the off-shell matrix elements and performs the phase space importance sampling to produce weighted events, for example in the Les Houches Event File format. It can deal with arbitrary processes within the Standard Model, for up to four final-state particles and beyond. Furthermore, it can produce events for single-parton scattering as well as for multi-parton scattering.

  14. The Great 1787 Corralero, Oaxaca, Tsunami Uncovered

    Ramirez-Herrera, M.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichrili, A.; Aguilar, B.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruíz-Fernández, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.


    In 28th March 1787, more than two centuries ago, a deadly tsunami (related to the the San Sixto earthquake) poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland, the tsunami destroyed mostly farmlands, and livestock and few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time, according to known historical accounts. We report the first geological evidence from the Corralero (Alotengo) lagoon coastal area to support these historical accounts. A transect was made with coring and test pits every 100 m from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that had been deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at about 36 to 64 cm depth. It thickness varies, averaging 28 cm in the middle of a swale. Based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, we deduced that this might be the evidence of its existence. As the only major tsunami described at that time, the San Sixto earthquake-triggered tsunami. We used the stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic properties such as magnetic susceptibility, remanent magnetization analyses to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. These proxies support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported by an extreme sea-wave inland. Further analysis will confirm the estimated age of this event.

  15. Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard

    Thio, H. K.


    Over the last few years, we have developed a framework for developing probabilistic tsunami inundation maps, which includes comprehensive quantification of earthquake recurrence as well as uncertainties, and applied it to the development of a tsunami hazard map of California. The various uncertainties in tsunami source and propagation models are an integral part of a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), and often drive the hazard at low probability levels (i.e. long return periods). There is no unique manner in which uncertainties are included in the analysis although in general, we distinguish between "natural" or aleatory variability, such as slip distribution and event magnitude, and uncertainties due to an incomplete understanding of the behavior of the earth, called epistemic uncertainties, such as scaling relations and rupture segmentation. Aleatory uncertainties are typically included through integration over distribution functions based on regression analyses, whereas epistemic uncertainties are included using logic trees. We will discuss how the different uncertainties were included in our recent probabilistic tsunami inundation maps for California, and their relative importance on the final results. Including these uncertainties in offshore exceedance waveheights is straightforward, but the problem becomes more complicated once the non-linearity of near-shore propagation and inundation are encountered. By using the probabilistic off-shore waveheights as input level for the inundation models, the uncertainties up to that point can be included in the final maps. PTHA provides a consistent analysis of tsunami hazard and will become an important tool in diverse areas such as coastal engineering and land use planning. The inclusive nature of the analysis, where few assumptions are made a-priori as to which sources are significant, means that a single analysis can provide a comprehensive view of the hazard and its dominant sources

  16. The tectonic source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami

    L. Torelli


    Full Text Available The SW continental margin of Iberia is affected by several tectonic structures of Cenozoic to Recent age, gen-erated by the dynamics of the Iberia-Africa plate margin. This activity is testified by diffuse seismicity along the eastern portion of the Azores-Gibraltar line. The most important active structure, detected during a reflection seismic survey in 1992, is a thrust-fault, some 50 km long and with dip-slip throw of more than 1 km, located offshore Cabo de S. Vincente. A relocation of historical earthquakes in the area shows that this structure lies very close to the epicentre of the catastrophic 1755 Lisbon earthquake and that it should be the generator of the event. This submarine structure can now be studied for modelization of tsunamis and consequent risk mitigation.

  17. The tectonic source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami

    Zitellini, N.; Chierici, F. (CNR, Centro Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna (Italy). Ist. di Geologia Marina); Sartori, R. (Bologna Univ. (Italy). Dip. di Scienze della Terra e Geologico-Ambientali); Torelli, L. (Parma Univ. (Italy). Dip. di Scienze della Terra)


    The SW continental margin of Iberia is affected by several tectonic structures of Cenozoic to Recent age, generated by the dynamics of the Iberia-Africa plate margin. This activity is testified by diffuse seismicity along the eastern portion of the Azores-Gibraltar line. The most important active structure, detected during a reflection seismic survey in 1992, is a thrust-fault, some 50 km long and with dip-slip throw of more than 1 km, located offshore Cabo de S.Vincente. A relocation of historical earthquakes in the area shows that this structure lies very close to the epicentre of the catastrophic 1755 Lisbon earthquake and that it should be the generator of the event. This submarine structure can now be studied for modelization of tsunamis and consequent risk mitigation.

  18. Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

    Andrade, Vanessa; Rajendran, Kusala; Rajendran, C. P.


    The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies.

  19. QCD event generators with next-to-leading order matrix-elements and parton showers

    Kurihara, Y; Ishikawa, T; Kato, K; Kawabata, S; Munehisa, T; Tanaka, H


    A new method to construct event-generators based on next-to-leading order QCD matrix-elements and leading-logarithmic parton showers is proposed. Matrix elements of loop diagram as well as those of a tree level can be generated using an automatic system. A soft/collinear singularity is treated using a leading-log subtraction method. Higher order re-summation of the soft/collinear correction by the parton shower method is combined with the NLO matrix-element without any double-counting in this method. An example of the event generator for Drell-Yan process is given for demonstrating a validity of this method.

  20. How heterogeneous coseismic slip affects regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment: A case study in the South China Sea

    Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Weiss, Robert; Qiu, Qiang


    Rupture complexity, typically in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution pattern, significantly affects the local tsunami wave field. However, the effect of rupture complexity is not commonly considered in any form of tsunami hazard assessment. Taking rupture complexity into account significantly increases the computational load, particularly in regional-scaled probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs) that usually require a large number of simulations based on synthetic scenarios. In this study, we investigate how the heterogeneous slip distribution affects the regional-scaled PTHA by taking the South China Sea (SCS) as an example. By doing this, we update PTHA for the SCS by incorporating the best available information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust. We integrate a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo-type simulation, in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns is generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. Green's function technique is employed to efficiently calculate the nearshore tsunami wave amplitude along the SCS coastlines. Our result suggests that for a relatively small and confined region like the SCS, the commonly used approach based on the uniform slip model significantly underestimates tsunami hazard not only in the near-source region like west Luzon, as expected, but also in the relative far field, such as south China and central Vietnam. Additionally, our sensitivity test of the patch size effects suggests that large patch size is unable to adequately resolve the details of heterogeneous seafloor deformation, and such approaches considerably underestimate the potential tsunami hazard for the SCS coasts.

  1. Modeling the 1958 Lituya Bay mega-tsunami with a PVM-IFCP GPU-based model

    González-Vida, José M.; Arcas, Diego; de la Asunción, Marc; Castro, Manuel J.; Macías, Jorge; Ortega, Sergio; Sánchez-Linares, Carlos; Titov, Vasily


    In this work we present a numerical study, performed in collaboration with the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research (USA), that uses a GPU version of the PVM-IFCP landslide model for the simulation of the 1958 landslide generated tsunami of Lituya Bay. In this model, a layer composed of fluidized granular material is assumed to flow within an upper layer of an inviscid fluid (e. g. water). The model is discretized using a two dimensional PVM-IFCP [Fernández - Castro - Parés. On an Intermediate Field Capturing Riemann Solver Based on a Parabolic Viscosity Matrix for the Two-Layer Shallow Water System, J. Sci. Comput., 48 (2011):117-140] finite volume scheme implemented on GPU cards for increasing the speed-up. This model has been previously validated by using the two-dimensional physical laboratory experiments data from H. Fritz [Lituya Bay Landslide Impact Generated Mega-Tsunami 50th Anniversary. Pure Appl. Geophys., 166 (2009) pp. 153-175]. In the present work, the first step was to reconstruct the topobathymetry of the Lituya Bay before this event ocurred, this is based on USGS geological surveys data. Then, a sensitivity analysis of some model parameters has been performed in order to determine the parameters that better fit to reality, when model results are compared against available event data, as run-up areas. In this presentation, the reconstruction of the pre-tsunami scenario will be shown, a detailed simulation of the tsunami presented and several comparisons with real data (runup, wave height, etc.) shown.

  2. Tsunami hazard warning and risk prediction based on inaccurate earthquake source parameters

    K. Goda


    Full Text Available This study investigates the issues related to underestimation of the earthquake source parameters in the context of tsunami early warning and tsunami risk assessment. The magnitude of a very large event may be underestimated significantly during the early stage of the disaster, resulting in the issuance of incorrect tsunami warnings. Tsunamigenic events in the Tohoku region of Japan, where the 2011 tsunami occurred, are focused on as a case study to illustrate the significance of the problems. The effects of biases in the estimated earthquake magnitude on tsunami loss are investigated using a rigorous probabilistic tsunami loss calculation tool that can be applied to a range of earthquake magnitudes by accounting for uncertainties of earthquake source parameters (e.g. geometry, mean slip, and spatial slip distribution. The quantitative tsunami loss results provide with valuable insights regarding the importance of deriving accurate seismic information as well as the potential biases of the anticipated tsunami consequences. Finally, usefulness of rigorous tsunami risk assessment is discussed in defining critical hazard scenarios based on the potential consequences due to tsunami disasters.

  3. Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

    Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.


    We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

  4. Modeling tsunamis from earthquake sources near Gorringe Bank southwest of Portugal

    Gjevik, B.; Pedersen, G.; Dybesland, E.; Harbitz, C. B.; Miranda, P. M. A.; Baptista, M. A.; Mendes-Victor, L.; Heinrich, P.; Roche, R.; Guesmia, M.


    The Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone with the huge bathymetric reliefs in the area southwest of Portugal is believed to have been the source of large historic tsunami events. This report describes simulations of tsunami generation and propagation from sources near the Gorringe Bank. The well-documented 1969 tsunami event is examined both with a ray-tracing technique and with finite difference models based on various shallow water equations. Both methods show that the most likely source location is southeast of the Gorringe Bank near the epicenter location determined from seismic data. The tsunami source is calculated by formulas given by Okada [1985] for surface deformation of an elastic half-space caused by faulting. Observed wave amplitude and travel time and values computed from an initial wave field according to Okada [1985] formulas show acceptable agreement for most stations along the coast of Portugal and Spain. However, in order to explain a large primary wave with downward displacement observed on the coast of Morocco, an alternative source model with a larger area of downward displacement has been introduced. This also leads to a better overall fit with observed travel time. Implications for disastrous events, as the one in 1755, are also discussed. Linear hydrostatic shallow water models are used for most of the simulations, but the importance of nonlinearity and dispersion is examined with the Boussinesq equations. The sensitivity of the solution to changes in the location and the strength of the source is discussed, and a series of grid refinement studies are performed in order to assess the accuracy of the simulations.

  5. Event-Centered Maze Generation Method for Mobile Virtual Reality Applications

    Kisung Jeong


    Full Text Available This study proposes a method of effectively creating mobile virtual reality scenes centered at events for the purpose of providing new experiences in virtual reality environment to users. For this purpose, this paper uses Prim’s maze generation algorithm to automatically create maze environments that have different patterns every time and to compute mazes with finite paths. This paper designs a scheme of creating virtual reality scenes based on event-centered mazes to maximize users’ tension and immersion. Here, event components that are appropriate for the maze environment are defined and maze patterns are created centered at the event point where events that are appropriate for the maze pattern are automatically created. Finally, the paper analyzes whether the proposed virtual reality scene based on event-centered mazes is helpful in enhancing users’ immersion and arousing their interest through diverse experiments.

  6. DJpsiFDC:an event generator for the process gg→J/ψJ/ψat the LHC

    QIAO Cong-Feng; WANG Jian; ZHENG Yang-Heng


    DJpsiFDC is an event generator package for the process gg→J/ψJ/ψ. It generates events for primary leading-order 2 → 2 processes. The package could generate a Les Houches Event (LHE) document and this could easily be embedded into detector simulation software frameworks. The package is produced in Fortran code.

  7. DJpsiFDC:an event generator for the process gg→J/ψJ/ψ at the LHC

    乔从丰; 王健; 郑阳恒


    DJpsiFDC is an event generator package for the process gg → J/ψJ/ψ. It generates events for primary leading-order 2 → 2 processes. The package could generate a Les Houches Event (LHE) document and this could easily be embedded into detector simulation sof

  8. Food Safety After a Tsunami

    ... Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather Food Safety After a Tsunami Language: English Español (Spanish) ... baby formula that requires no added water. Keeping Foods Cold If available, dry ice can be used ...

  9. 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

    Vongvisessomjai, S.


    Full Text Available A catastrophic tsunami on December 26, 2004 caused devastation in the coastal region of six southern provinces of Thailand on the Andaman Sea coast. This paper summaries the characteristics of tsunami with the aim of informing and warning the public and reducing future casualties and damage.The first part is a review of the records of past catastrophic tsunamis, namely those in Chile in 1960, Alaska in 1964, and Flores, Java, Indonesia, in 1992, and the lessons drawn from these tsunamis. An analysis and the impact of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami is then presented and remedial measures recommended.Results of this study are as follows:Firstly, the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranked fourth in terms of earthquake magnitude (9.0 M after those in 1960 in Chile (9.5 M, 1899 in Alaska (9.2 M and 1964 in Alaska (9.1 M and ranked first in terms of damage and casualties. It was most destructive when breaking in shallow water nearshore.Secondly, the best alleviation measures are 1 to set up a reliable system for providing warning at the time of an earthquake in order to save lives and reduce damage and 2 to establish a hazard map and implement land-use zoning in the devastated areas, according to the following principles:- Large hotels located at an elevation of not less than 10 m above mean sea level (MSL- Medium hotels located at an elevation of not less than 6 m above MSL- Small hotel located at elevation below 6 m MSL, but with the first floor elevated on poles to allow passage of a tsunami wave- Set-back distances from shoreline established for various developments- Provision of shelters and evacuation directionsFinally, public education is an essential part of preparedness.

  10. Assessment of Tsunami Hazard for Western coast of the Black sea

    Zaytsev, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet; Ionescu, Constantin; Iren, Moldovan


    Tsunami hazard in the Black Sea is considered low to moderate but not negligible. At present, New European Tsunami Catalogue counts 29 historical tsunami events in the Black Sea, 22 of which are considered as reliable. Some of them can be affected Romanian coast including a strong neares earthquakes event 544/545 of offshore Varna (Bulgaria). In this study we discuss a forecast of possible tsunami wave heights at Romanian coasts of the Black Sea. In the analysis, the prognostic numerical simulations are performed by using 55 tsunami events. In the simulations non-linear Boussinesq equation model in the Black Sea is used. All tsunami sources are selected as uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin. The results of prognostic numerical simulations are compared with the results of numerical modelling of two instrumentally measured tsunami events (1939 and 1966). On this basis a preliminary forecast of tsunami inundation map along the Romanian coast of the Black Sea is developed. As the summary the level of tsunami risk is discussed by considering recent development of the coastal utilization in the Black sea.On this basis a preliminary forecast of tsunami inundation map along the Western coast of the Black Sea is given developed. Certainly a the tsunami the risk in the Black Sea is not too high but considering development of the European coastal infrastructure and utilization it becomes important. This work is funded by project ASTARTE-Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839

  11. Short Wave Amplification and Extreme Runup by the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

    Shimozono, Takenori; Cui, Haiyang; Pietrzak, Julie D.; Fritz, Hermann M.; Okayasu, Akio; Hooper, Andrew J.


    Watermarks found during the post-event surveys of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami confirmed extreme runup heights at several locations along the central to northern part of the Sanriku coast, Japan. We measured the maximum height of nearly 40 m above mean sea level at a narrow coastal valley of the Aneyoshi district. Wave records by offshore GPS-buoys suggest that the remarkably high runup was associated with a leading, impulsive crest of the tsunami amplified by local bathymetry and topography. In order to elucidate the underlying amplification mechanism, we apply a numerical model to reproduce the measured distribution of tsunami heights along the target coastline. A series of numerical tests under different boundary conditions suggests that a spectral component with a dominant period of 4-5 min in the leading wave play a key role in generating the extreme runup. Further analyses focusing on the Aneyoshi district confirm that the short wavelength component undergoes critical amplification in a narrow inlet. Our findings highlight the importance of resolving offshore waveforms as well as local bathymetry and topography when simulating extreme runup events.

  12. Historical tsunami database for France and its overseas territories

    J. Lambert


    Full Text Available A search and analysis of a large number of historical documents has made it possible: (i to discover so-far unknown tsunamis that have hit the French coasts during the last centuries, and (ii conversely, to disprove the tsunami nature of several events referred to in recent catalogues. This information has been structured into a database and also made available as a website (tsunamis.f/" target="_blank"> that is accessible in French, English and Spanish. So far 60 genuine ("true" tsunamis have been described (with their dates, causes, oceans/seas, places observed, number of waves, flood and ebb distances, run-up, and intensities and referenced against contemporary sources. Digitized documents are accessible online. In addition, so as to avoid confusion, tsunamis revealed as "false" or "doubtful" have been compiled into a second catalogue.

    Both the database and the website are updated annually corresponding to the state of knowledge, so as to take into account newly discovered historical references and the occurrence of new tsunamis on the coasts of France and many of its overseas territories: Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, New Caledonia, Réunion, and Mayotte.

  13. Variations in sea surface roughness induced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami

    O. A. Godin


    Full Text Available Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track.

  14. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan


    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  15. Searching for Pre-2004 Tsunami Deposits in Thailand

    Tuttle, M.; Alam, S.; Atwater, B.; Charoentitirat, T.; Charusiri, P.; Choowong, M.; Fernando, S.; Jankaew, K.; Jittanoon, V.; Kongko, W.; Maxcia, C.; Pailoplee, S.; Phantuwongraj, S.; Rajendran, K.; Rhodes, B.; Srichan, N.; Tejakusuma, I.; Yulianto, E.


    We found only one candidate for a pre-2004 tsunami deposit during a ten-day search in July 2006 of four coastal sites in Phangnga Province. Although our initial field effort was limited, the paucity of pre-2004 tsunami deposits suggests that either there have been few Late Holocene tsunamis like the 2004 event or that the identification of paleotsunami deposits will be challenging in this region. Our investigations at Ban Bang Neang, Ban Lang Ong, Ban Nauk Nai, and Khlong Phru Sai involved examining soils and sediments 30 to 250 cm below the surface in cutbank exposures, gouge-core samples, and excavations. We targeted swales between beach ridges in areas undisturbed by tin mining and where tsunami deposits might have accumulated and been preserved. As shown in previous studies, the deposits of the 2004 tsunami extend as much as 1.5 km inland, thin over high ground, and thicken in swales. The deposits are composed of 1 to 4 beds, ranging from coarse to very fine sand, that commonly fine upward and locally contain parallel laminations. Where estuaries are relatively unprotected by mangroves, the 2004 tsunami deposits extend farther inland. Where mangroves fringe estuaries for 100s of meters, the deposits are concentrated in areas of mangrove damage. Crabs have already destroyed much of the tsunami deposits by mixing it with underlying peaty soil. At Ban Nauk Nai, we found a candidate for a pre-2004 tsunami deposit about 1.1 km inland at the back edge of the coastal plain adjacent to a steep hillslope. The deposit, identified over a distance of 60 meters, consists of a 10-cm-thick, silty, fining-upward coarse to fine sand about 25 cm below the bottom of a shallow pond and the adjoining area. In the same area, the overlying 6 to 13- cm-thick 2004 tsunami deposit consists of a normally graded fine to very fine sand. At the other sites, we found coarse, medium, and fine sand beds typical of coastal plain beach deposits. Although tsunami deposits may occur within the

  16. Effects of rupture complexity on local tsunami inundation: Implications for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment by example

    Mueller, Christof; Power, William; Fraser, Stuart; Wang, Xiaoming


    We investigated the influence of earthquake source complexity on the extent of inundation caused by the resulting tsunami. We simulated 100 scenarios with collocated sources of variable slip on the Hikurangi subduction interface in the vicinity of Hawke's Bay and Poverty Bay in New Zealand and investigated the tsunami effects on the cities of Napier and Gisborne. Rupture complexity was found to have a first-order effect on flow depth and inundation extent for local tsunami sources. The position of individual asperities in the slip distribution on the rupture interface control to some extent how severe inundation will be. However, predicting inundation extent in detail from investigating the distribution of slip on the rupture interface proves difficult. Assuming uniform slip on the rupture interface in tsunami models can underestimate the potential impact and extent of inundation. For example, simulation of an Mw 8.7 to Mw 8.8 earthquake with uniform slip reproduced the area that could potentially be inundated by equivalent nonuniform slip events of Mw 8.4. Deaggregation, to establish the contribution of different sources with different slip distributions to the probabilistic hazard, cannot be performed based on magnitude considerations alone. We propose two predictors for inundation severity based on the offshore tsunami wavefield using the linear wave equations in an attempt to keep costly simulations of full inundation to a minimum.

  17. The November 17, 2015 Lefkada offshore (non-?)tsunamigenic earthquake: preliminary considerations and implications for tsunami hazard and warning in the Ionian Sea

    Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Ausilia Paparo, Maria; Zaniboni, Filippo


    A Mw = 6.5 earthquake occurred on November 17, 2015 just offshore the western coast of the Ionian island of Lefkada (western Greece). The earthquake caused two fatalities and severe damage, especially in the island of Lefkada. Several landslides were set in motion by the earthquake, some of which occurred along the coastal cliffs. The earthquake was clearly felt also along the eastern coasts of Apulia, Calabria and Sicily (Italy). The computed focal mechanisms indicate that the rupture occurred along a dextral strike-slip, sub-vertical fault, compatible with the well-known transcurrent tectonics of the Lefkada-Cephalonia area. At the time of the drafting of this abstract no heterogeneous slip distribution has been proposed. No clear evidence of tsunami effects is available, with the only exception of the signal recorded by the tide gauge in Crotone (eastern Calabria, Italy), where a clear disturbance (still to be fully characterised and explained) emerges from the background at approximately 1 hour after the earthquake origin time. From the tsunami research point of view, the November 17 Lefkada earthquake poses at least two problems, which we try to address in this paper. The first consists in studying the tsunami generation based on the available seismic information and on the tectonic setting of the area. We present results of numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation aimed at casting light on the reasons why the generated tsunami was so weak (or even absent). Starting from the official fault parameters provided by the seismic agencies, we vary a number of them, there including the length and width calculated on the basis of different regression formulas, and the depth. For each configuration we perform tsunami simulations by means of the in-house finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD. In parallel, we analyse the Crotone tide-gauge record in order to understand whether the observed "anomalous" signal can be attributed to a tsunami or not. In the

  18. Cellular and network mechanisms generating spontaneous population events in the immature rat hippocampus

    SipilÀ, Sampsa


    Distinct endogenous network events, generated independently of sensory input, are a general feature of various structures of the immature central nervous system. In the immature hippocampus, these type of events are seen as "giant depolarizing potentials" (GDPs) in intracellular recordings in vitro. GABA, the major inhibitory neurotransmitter of the adult brain, has a depolarizing action in immature neurons, and GDPs have been proposed to be driven by GABAergic transmission. Moreover, GDPs ha...

  19. Adapting the serial Alpgen event generator to simulate LHC collisions on millions of parallel threads

    Childers, J T; LeCompte, T J; Papka, M E; Benjamin, D P


    As the LHC moves to higher energies and luminosity, the demand for computing resources increases accordingly and will soon outpace the growth of the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid. To meet this greater demand, event generation Monte Carlo was targeted for adaptation to run on Mira, the supercomputer at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility. Alpgen is a Monte Carlo event generation application that is used by LHC experiments in the simulation of collisions that take place in the Large Hadron Collider. This paper details the process by which Alpgen was adapted from a single-processor serial-application to a large-scale parallel-application and the performance that was achieved.

  20. Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents

    Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Eskijian, M.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.


    The California Tsunami Program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase tsunami hazard preparedness and mitigation in maritime communities (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The initial goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine 'safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. We will present details of a new initiative to evaluate the future likelihood of failure for different structural components of a harbor, leading to the identification of high priority areas for mitigation. This presentation will focus on the results from California ports and harbors across the State, and will include feedback we have received from discussions with local harbor masters and port authorities. To help promote accurate and consistent products, the authors are also working through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to organize a tsunami current model benchmark workshop.

  1. Analysis of XXI Century Disasters in the National Geophysical Data Center Historical Natural Hazard Event Databases

    Dunbar, P. K.; McCullough, H. L.


    The National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) maintains a global historical event database of tsunamis, significant earthquakes, and significant volcanic eruptions. The database includes all tsunami events, regardless of intensity, as well as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that caused fatalities, moderate damage, or generated a tsunami. Event date, time, location, magnitude of the phenomenon, and socio-economic information are included in the database. Analysis of the NGDC event database reveals that the 21st century began with earthquakes in Gujarat, India (magnitude 7.7, 2001) and Bam, Iran (magnitude 6.6, 2003) that killed over 20,000 and 31,000 people, respectively. These numbers were dwarfed by the numbers of earthquake deaths in Pakistan (magnitude 7.6, 2005-86,000 deaths), Wenchuan, China (magnitude 7.9, 2008-87,652 deaths), and Haiti (magnitude 7.0, 2010-222,000 deaths). The Haiti event also ranks among the top ten most fatal earthquakes. The 21st century has observed the most fatal tsunami in recorded history-the 2004 magnitude 9.1 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that caused over 227,000 deaths and 10 billion damage in 14 countries. Six years later, the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami, although not the most fatal (15,000 deaths and 5,000 missing), could cost Japan's government in excess of 300 billion-the most expensive tsunami in history. Volcanic eruptions can cause disruptions and economic impact to the airline industry, but due to their remote locations, fatalities and direct economic effects are uncommon. Despite this fact, the second most expensive eruption in recorded history occurred in the 21st century-the 2010 Merapi, Indonesia volcanic eruption that resulted in 324 deaths, 427 injuries, and $600 million in damage. NGDC integrates all natural hazard event datasets into one search interface. Users can find fatal tsunamis generated by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. The user can then link to information about the related runup

  2. A deep scar in the flank of Tenerife (Canary Islands): Geophysical contribution to tsunami hazard assessment

    Coppo, Nicolas P.; Schnegg, Pierre-André; Falco, Pierik; Costa, Roberto


    Among the high-intensity on-Earth tsunami generating events, seismicity, submarine landslides, and volcano lateral collapses are the most important [Ward, S.H., 2001. Landslide tsunami. J. Geophy. Res. 106, 11201-11215; Holcomb, R.T., Searle, R.C., 1991. Large landslides from oceanic volcanoes. Mar. Geotech. 10, 19-32; Tinti, S., Bortolucci, E., Romagnoli, C., 2000. Computer simulations of tsunamis due to the sector collapse ar Stromboli, Italy. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 96, 103-128; Ward, S.N., Day, S., 2003. Ritter Island Volcano — lateral collapse and the tsunami of 1888. Geophys. J. Int. 154, 891-902; MacGuire, W.J., 2003. Volcano instability and lateral collapse. Revista 1, 33-45]. Offshore bathymetry studies highlighted huge accumulations of large mass-waste flows (up to thousands cubic kilometres) inherited from past lateral collapses or submarine landslides [ Le Friant, A., Boudon, G., Deplus, C., Villemant, B., 2003. Large-scale flank collapse events during the activity of Montagne Pelée, Martinique, Lesser Antilles. J. Geophys. Res. 108, ECV13; Moore, J.G. et al., 1989. Prodigious submarine Landslides on the Hawaiian ridge. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 17465-17484] which spread over more than 100 km off the northern Tenerife (Canary Islands) coastline [Watts, A.B., Masson, D.G., 1995. A giant landslide on the north flank of Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 24487-24498]. Although mechanics and dynamics triggering such catastrophic events follow from combined complex processes and interactions [Hürlimann, M., Garcia-Piera, J.-O., Ledesma, A., 2000. Causes and mobility of large volcanic landslides: application to Tenerife, Canary Islands. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 103, 121-134; Masson, D.G. et al., 2002. Slope failures on the flanks of the western Canary Islands. Earth-Sci. Rev. 57, 1-35; Reid, M.E., Sisson, T.W., Brien, D.L., 2001. Volcano collapse promoted by hydrothermal alteration and edifice shape, Mount Rainier, Washington. Geology 29, 779

  3. Benchmarking an Unstructured-Grid Model for Tsunami Current Modeling

    Zhang, Yinglong J.; Priest, George; Allan, Jonathan; Stimely, Laura


    We present model results derived from a tsunami current benchmarking workshop held by the NTHMP (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program) in February 2015. Modeling was undertaken using our own 3D unstructured-grid model that has been previously certified by the NTHMP for tsunami inundation. Results for two benchmark tests are described here, including: (1) vortex structure in the wake of a submerged shoal and (2) impact of tsunami waves on Hilo Harbor in the 2011 Tohoku event. The modeled current velocities are compared with available lab and field data. We demonstrate that the model is able to accurately capture the velocity field in the two benchmark tests; in particular, the 3D model gives a much more accurate wake structure than the 2D model for the first test, with the root-mean-square error and mean bias no more than 2 cm s-1 and 8 mm s-1, respectively, for the modeled velocity.

  4. The 17 July 2006 Tsunami earthquake in West Java, Indonesia

    Mori, J.; Mooney, W.D.; Afnimar,; Kurniawan, S.; Anaya, A.I.; Widiyantoro, S.


    A tsunami earthquake (Mw = 7.7) occurred south of Java on 17 July 2006. The event produced relatively low levels of high-frequency radiation, and local felt reports indicated only weak shaking in Java. There was no ground motion damage from the earthquake, but there was extensive damage and loss of life from the tsunami along 250 km of the southern coasts of West Java and Central Java. An inspection of the area a few days after the earthquake showed extensive damage to wooden and unreinforced masonry buildings that were located within several hundred meters of the coast. Since there was no tsunami warning system in place, efforts to escape the large waves depended on how people reacted to the earthquake shaking, which was only weakly felt in the coastal areas. This experience emphasizes the need for adequate tsunami warning systems for the Indian Ocean region.

  5. The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California: Chapter C in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Wilson, Rick; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Jaffe, Bruce; Richmond, Bruce; Peters, Robert; Graehl, Nick; Kelsey, Harvey; Leeper, Robert; Watt, Steve; McGann, Mary; Hoirup, Don F.; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James; Caldwell, Dylan; Loofbourrow, Casey


    A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numerical tsunami modeling results identify the eastern Aleutian Islands subduction zone as the “worstcase” distant-source region, with the potential for causing tsunami runups of 7–10 m in northern and central California and 3–4 m in southern California. These model results, along with a review of historical topographic maps and past geotechnical evaluations, guided site selection for tsunami deposit surveys. A reconnaissance of 20 coastal marshlands was performed through site visits and coring of shallow surface sediments to determine if evidence for past tsunamis existed. Although conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits was not found at most of the sites evaluated, geologic evidence consistent with tsunami inundation was found at two locations: Three marshes in the Crescent City area and Pillar Point marsh near Half Moon Bay. Potential tsunami deposits were also evaluated at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in Santa Barbara County. In Crescent City, deposits were ascribed to tsunamis on the basis of stratigraphic architecture, particle size, and microfossil content, and they were further assigned to the 1964 Alaska and 1700 Cascadia tsunamis on the basis of dating by cesium-137 and radiocarbon methods, respectively. The 1946 tsunami sand deposit was clearly identified throughout Pillar Point marsh, and one to two other similar but highly discontinuous sand layers were present within 0.5 m of the surface. A tsunami-origin interpretation for sand layers at Carpinteria is merely consistent with graded bedding and unsupported by diatom or foraminiferal assemblages

  6. Vulnerability Assessment and Prevention Measures for Tsunami Flooding of Coastal Areas in Mexico

    Farreras, S. F.; Ortiz, M.


    The Middle-America Trench subduction zone adjacent to the southwestern coast of Mexico accounts for a consistent and regular history of locally destructive tsunamis generated by large earthquakes. 3 and 5 meters are the maximum wave heights representative of low and middle risk for the most frequent of these tsunamis. This coast is the site of industrial ports, tourist resorts and urban communities. The main industrial port, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, has two steel mill plants, a fertilizer factory, container, metal and mineral docks, grain storage silos, and a fuel oil terminal. An important element for the vulnerability assessment is the determination of probable tsunami wave elevations and expected inundation limits. The two cases mentioned above were computer simulated. An ocean water disturbance produced by a sea-floor earthquake was assumed. Linear wave theory for the deep ocean, and non-linear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, were used. Non-fixed boundaries were considered. The equations were solved by a finite-difference algorithm for interconnected grids of different sizes. The model was validated comparing the results with sea level data, run-up and flooding extensions measured from past tsunamis. Results of the numerical simulations show maximum water levels and boundaries of the inundation areas under threat. Inundation maps were produced. Vulnerability assessments for two cases, an urban settlement and the main industrial port, are described. A low risk event will produce slight damage, railroad tracks destroyed, access bridges washed out, and ledges of sand removed or deposited on the beaches; and a middle risk event will produce major and extensive damage to the installations and danger to life. Recommendations include the relocation of urban settlements, installations and services, and the establishment of evacuation routes and emergency shelters.

  7. CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX Caribbean and Western Atlantic Tsunami Exercises

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Whitmore, P.; Aliaga, B.; Huerfano Moreno, V.


    Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions over the past 500 years. While most have been generated by local earthquakes, distant generated tsunamis can also affect the region. For example, waves from the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami were observed in Cuba, Dominican Republic, British Virgin Islands, as well as Antigua, Martinique, Guadalupe and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Although the tsunami generated by the 2010 Haiti earthquake claimed only a few lives, in the 1530 El Pilar, Venezuela; 1602 Port Royale, Jamaica; 1918 Puerto Rico; and 1946 Samaná, Dominican Republic tsunamis the death tolls ranged to over a thousand. Since then, there has been an explosive increase in residents, visitors, infrastructure, and economic activity along the coastlines, increasing the potential for human and economic loss. It has been estimated that on any day, upwards of more than 500,000 people could be in harm's way just along the beaches, with hundreds of thousands more working and living in the tsunamis hazard zones. Given the relative infrequency of tsunamis, exercises are a valuable tool to test communications, evaluate preparedness and raise awareness. Exercises in the Caribbean are conducted under the framework of the UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) and the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. On March 23, 2011, 34 countries and territories participated in the first CARIBE WAVE/LANTEX regional tsunami exercise, while in the second exercise on March 20, 2013 a total of 45 countries and territories participated. 481 organizations (almost 200 more than in 2011) also registered to receive the bulletins issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center and/or the Puerto Rico

  8. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd


    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  9. How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

    Costa, Pedro J. M.; Costas, Susana; Gonzalez-Villanueva, R.;


    Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism...... of coastal systems. In fact, long-term changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD...... 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical...

  10. Assessing hail risk for a building portfolio by generating stochastic events

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Nguyen, Liliane; Voumard, Jérémie


    Among the natural hazards affecting buildings, hail is one of the most costly and is nowadays a major concern for building insurance companies. In Switzerland, several costly events were reported these last years, among which the July 2011 event, which cost around 125 million EUR to the Aargauer public insurance company (North-western Switzerland). This study presents the new developments in a stochastic model which aims at evaluating the risk for a building portfolio. Thanks to insurance and meteorological radar data of the 2011 Aargauer event, vulnerability curves are proposed by comparing the damage rate to the radar intensity (i.e. the maximum hailstone size reached during the event, deduced from the radar signal). From these data, vulnerability is defined by a two-step process. The first step defines the probability for a building to be affected (i.e. to claim damages), while the second, if the building is affected, attributes a damage rate to the building from a probability distribution specific to the intensity class. To assess the risk, stochastic events are then generated by summing a set of Gaussian functions with 6 random parameters (X and Y location, maximum hailstone size, standard deviation, eccentricity and orientation). The location of these functions is constrained by a general event shape and by the position of the previously defined functions of the same event. For each generated event, the total cost is calculated in order to obtain a distribution of event costs. The general events parameters (shape, size, …) as well as the distribution of the Gaussian parameters are inferred from two radar intensity maps, namely the one of the aforementioned event, and a second from an event which occurred in 2009. After a large number of simulations, the hailstone size distribution obtained in different regions is compared to the distribution inferred from pre-existing hazard maps, built from a larger set of radar data. The simulation parameters are then

  11. The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

    Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.


    The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsu