Tropical Indian Ocean Variability Driving Southeast Australian Droughts

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, C. C.; England, M. H.; McIntosh, P. C.; Meyers, G. A.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.; Sen Gupta, A.; Taschetto, A. S.

2009-04-01

Variability in the tropical Indian Ocean has widespread effects on rainfall in surrounding countries, including East Africa, India and Indonesia. The leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean variability, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode characterized by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of opposite sign in the east and west of the basin with an associated large-scale atmospheric re-organisation. Earlier work has often focused on the positive phase of the IOD. However, we show here that the negative IOD phase is an important driver of regional rainfall variability and multi-year droughts. For southeastern Australia, we show that it is actually a lack of the negative IOD phase, rather than the positive IOD phase or Pacific variability, that provides the most robust explanation for recent drought conditions. Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living memory, the so-called "Big Dry". The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of two of Australia's major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought's origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show that the "Big Dry" and other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by tropical Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of characteristic Indian Ocean temperature conditions that are conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the "Big Dry", its unprecedented intensity is also related to recent above-average temperatures. Implications of recent non-uniform warming trends in the Indian Ocean and how that might affect ocean characteristics and climate in

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Vern Suomi 's Vital Role

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Joanne; Kummerow, Christian

1999-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission was a new concept of measuring rainfall over the global tropics using a combination of instruments, including the first weather radar to be flown in space. An important objective of the mission was to obtain profiles of latent heat in order to initialize large-scale circulation models and to understand the relationship between short-term climate changes in relation to rainfall variability. The idea originated in the early 1980's from scientists at the Goddard Space Flight Center/NASA who had been involved with attempts to measure rain with a passive microwave instrument on Nimbus 5 and had compared its results with rain falling in the area covered by the GATE1 radar ships. Using an imaginary satellite flying over the GATE ships, scientists showed that a satellite with an inclined orbit of 30-35 degrees could obtain monthly rainfalls with a sampling error of less than 10 percent over 5 degree by 5 degree areas. The Japanese proposed that they could build a nadir-scanning rain radar for the satellite. Vern Suomi was excited by this mission from the outset, since he recognized the great importance of adequate rainfall measurements over the tropical oceans. He was a charter member of the Science Steering Team and prepared a large part of the Report. While the mission attracted strong support in the science community, it was opposed by some of the high-level NASA management who feared its competition for funds with some much larger Earth Science satellites. Vern was able to overcome this opposition and to generate Congressional support, so that the Project finally got underway on both sides of the Pacific in 1991. The paper will discuss the design of the satellite, its data system and ground validation program. TP.NM was successfully launched in late 1997. Early results will be described. 1 GATE stands for GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment and GARP stands for Global Atmospheric Research Program.

Assessing the Regional Frequency, Intensity, and Spatial Extent of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Bosma, C.; Wright, D.; Nguyen, P.

2017-12-01

While the strength of a hurricane is generally classified based on its wind speed, the unprecedented rainfall-driven flooding experienced in southeastern Texas during Hurricane Harvey clearly highlights the need for better understanding of the hazards associated with extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. In this study, we seek to develop a framework for describing the joint probabilistic and spatio-temporal properties of extreme rainfall from hurricanes and other tropical systems. Furthermore, we argue that commonly-used terminology - such as the "500-year storm" - fail to convey the true properties of tropical cyclone rainfall occurrences in the United States. To quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of these storms, a database consisting of hundreds of unique rainfall volumetric shapes (or "voxels") was created. Each voxel is a four-dimensional object, created by connecting, in both space and time, gridded rainfall observations from the daily, gauge-based NOAA CPC-Unified precipitation dataset. Individual voxels were then associated with concurrent tropical cyclone tracks from NOAA's HURDAT-2 archive, to create distinct representations of the rainfall associated with every Atlantic tropical system making landfall over (or passing near) the United States since 1948. Using these voxels, a series of threshold-excess extreme value models were created to estimate the recurrence intervals of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall, both nationally and locally, for single and multi-day timescales. This voxel database also allows for the "indexing" of past events, placing recent extremes - such as the 50+ inches of rain observed during Hurricane Harvey - into a national context and emphasizing how rainfall totals that are rare at the point scale may be more frequent from a regional perspective.

Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

S, Sreekanth T.

begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

Science.gov (United States)

Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill; Rowell, David P.

2016-02-01

Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century--earlier than previously expected--and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.

Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J.; Su, H.

2004-05-01

Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.

2003-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees

Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific - June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Surendran, Sajani; Gadgil, Sulochana; Rajendran, Kavirajan; Varghese, Stella Jes; Kitoh, Akio

2018-03-01

Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana

2010-05-01

Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been

Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the rainy season and relationship to the equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Renguang [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States)

2011-10-15

The present study investigates the Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the early and late rainy seasons and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea interaction based on observational estimates, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and the CFS retrospective forecasts. Analysis of the observational estimates indicates that air-sea interaction is important over the Caribbean Sea, whereas the atmospheric forcing of SST dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The CFS simulation captures the basic elements of this observed air-sea relationship. The GFS simulation produces spurious SST forcing of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico largely due to prescribing SST. The CFS forecasts capture the air-sea relationship in the late rainy season (August-October), but cannot reproduce the SST forcing of atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in the early rainy season (May-July). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that the leading modes of percent anomalies of the rainy season precipitation have the largest loading in the southern Caribbean Sea in observations. The model simulations and forecasts skillfully reproduce the spatial pattern, but not the temporal evolution. The Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the early rainy season is mainly due to the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomalies in observations, is contributed by both the TNA and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) SST anomalies in the CFS simulation, and has an overly large impact from the EEP SST anomalies in the GFS simulation and the CFS forecasts. The observed Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the late rainy season has a leading impact from the EEP SST anomalies, with a secondary contribution from the TNA SST anomalies. In comparison, the model simulations and forecasts overestimate the impacts of the EEP SST anomalies due to an earlier development and longer duration of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the CFS

The interaction rainfall vs. weight as determinant of total mercury concentration in fish from a tropical estuary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barletta, M.; Lucena, L.R.R.; Costa, M.F.; Barbosa-Cintra, S.C.T.; Cysneiros, F.J.A.

2012-01-01

Mercury loads in tropical estuaries are largely controlled by the rainfall regime that may cause biodilution due to increased amounts of organic matter (both live and non-living) in the system. Top predators, as Trichiurus lepturus, reflect the changing mercury bioavailability situations in their muscle tissues. In this work two variables [fish weight (g) and monthly total rainfall (mm)] are presented as being important predictors of total mercury concentration (T-Hg) in fish muscle. These important explanatory variables were identified by a Weibull Regression model, which best fit the dataset. A predictive model using readily available variables as rainfall is important, and can be applied for human and ecological health assessments and decisions. The main contribution will be to further protect vulnerable groups as pregnant women and children. Nature conservation directives could also improve by considering monitoring sample designs that include this hypothesis, helping to establish complete and detailed mercury contamination scenarios. - Highlights: ► Questions previous statistical approaches that used heterocedastic data after transformation. ► Corroborates other works that pointed seasonal variations of the mercury burden in fish muscle. ► Defines rainfall as a major driver of mercury in predatory fish at tropical latitudes. ► Progresses in environmental data analysis and steps forward from previous approaches to Hg in fish. ► Proposes a model to predict scenarios of Hg in fish as a function of biological and environmental variables. - The Weibull Regression model was the most appropriate fit for T-Hg in fish and therefore more ecological insights emerged from previous data.

Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

1996-11-01

The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

Rainfall interception from a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei

Science.gov (United States)

Dykes, A. P.

1997-12-01

Results from a programme of throughfall measurements in a lowland tropical rainforest in Brunei, northwest Borneo, indicate that interception losses amount to 18% of the gross incident rainfall. The high annual rainfall experienced by the study area results in annual interception losses of around 800 mm, which may result in total annual evapotranspiration losses significantly higher than in other rainforest locations. An improved version of Gash's analytical interception model is tested on the available data using assumed values for the "forest" parameters, and is found to predict interception losses extremely well. The model predictions are based on an estimated evaporation rate during rainfall of 0.71 mm h -1. This is significantly higher than has been reported in other tropical studies. It is concluded that these results are distinctive when compared with previous results from rainforests, and that further, detailed work is required to establish whether the enhanced evaporation rate is due to advective effects associated with the maritime setting of the study area.

On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM): Bringing NASA's Earth System Science Program to the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

1998-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission is the first mission dedicated to measuring tropical and subtropical rainfall using a variety of remote sensing instrumentation, including the first spaceborne rain-measuring radar. Since the energy released when tropical rainfall occurs is a primary "fuel" supply for the weather and climate "engine"; improvements in computer models which predict future weather and climate states may depend on better measurements of global tropical rainfall and its energy. In support of the STANYS conference theme of Education and Space, this presentation focuses on one aspect of NASA's Earth Systems Science Program. We seek to present an overview of the TRMM mission. This overview will discuss the scientific motivation for TRMM, the TRMM instrument package, and recent images from tropical rainfall systems and hurricanes. The presentation also targets educational components of the TRMM mission in the areas of weather, mathematics, technology, and geography that can be used by secondary school/high school educators in the classroom.

Linking Vital Rates of Landbirds on a Tropical Island to Rainfall and Vegetation Greenness.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James F Saracco

Full Text Available Remote tropical oceanic islands are of high conservation priority, and they are exemplified by range-restricted species with small global populations. Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall and plant productivity may be important in driving dynamics of these species. Yet, little is known about environmental influences on population dynamics for most islands and species. Here we leveraged avian capture-recapture, rainfall, and remote-sensed habitat data (enhanced vegetation index [EVI] to assess relationships between rainfall, vegetation greenness, and demographic rates (productivity, adult apparent survival of three native bird species on Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands: rufous fantail (Rhipidura rufifrons, bridled white-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus, and golden white-eye (Cleptornis marchei. Rainfall was positively related to vegetation greenness at all but the highest rainfall levels. Temporal variation in greenness affected the productivity of each bird species in unique ways. Predicted productivity of rufous fantail was highest when dry and wet season greenness values were high relative to site-specific 5-year seasonal mean values (i.e., relative greenness; while the white-eye species had highest predicted productivity when relative greenness contrasted between wet and dry seasons. Survival of rufous fantail and bridled white eye was positively related to relative dry-season greenness and negatively related to relative wet-season greenness. Bridled white-eye survival also showed evidence of a positive response to overall greenness. Our results highlight the potentially important role of rainfall regimes in affecting population dynamics of species on oceanic tropical islands. Understanding linkages between rainfall, vegetation, and animal population dynamics will be critical for developing effective conservation strategies in this and other regions where the seasonal timing, extent, and variability of rainfall is expected to change in the

Multiscaling properties of tropical rainfall: Analysis of rain gauge datasets in Lesser Antilles island environment

Science.gov (United States)

Bernard, Didier C.; Pasquier, Raphaël; Cécé, Raphaël; Dorville, Jean-François

2014-05-01

Changes in rainfall seem to be the main impact of climate change in the Caribbean area. The last conclusions of IPCC (2013), indicate that the end of this century will be marked by a rise of extreme rainfalls in tropical areas, linked with increase of the mean surface temperature. Moreover, most of the Lesser Antilles islands are characterized by a complex topography which tends to enhance the rainfall from synoptic disturbances by orographic effects. In the past five years, out of hurricanes passage, several extreme rainy events (approx. 16 mm in 6 minutes), including fatal cases, occurred in the Lesser Antilles Arc: in Guadeloupe (January 2011, May 2012 and 2013), in Martinique (May 2009, April 2011 and 2013), in Saint-Lucia (December 2013). These phenomena inducing floods, loss of life and material damages (agriculture sector and public infrastructures), inhibit the development of the islands. At this time, numerical weather prediction models as WRF, which are based on the equations of the atmospheric physics, do not show great results in the focused area (Bernard et al., 2013). Statistical methods may be used to examine explicitly local rainy updrafts, thermally and orographically induced at micro-scale. The main goal of the present insular tropical study is to characterize the multifractal symmetries occurring in the 6-min rainfall time series, registered since 2006 by the French Met. Office network weather stations. The universal multifractal model (Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991) is used to define the statistical properties of measured rainfalls at meso-scale and micro-scale. This model is parametrized by a fundamental exponents set (H,a,C1,q) which are determined and compared with values found in the literature. The first three parameters characterize the mean pattern and the last parameter q, the extreme pattern. The occurrence ranges of multifractal regime are examined. The suggested links between the internal variability of the tropical rainy events and the

Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

2003-04-01

The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

Remote sensing entropy to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, M. R.; Reba, M. N. M.; Wei, J. S.; Razak, N. H. Abdul

2018-02-01

This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments. There were two major issues need to be anticipated in monitoring the tropical catchments; first is the frequent monitoring of the rainfall and second is the appropriate indicator that sensitive to rainfall pattern changes or disorder. For the first issue, the use of satellite remote sensing precipitation data is suggested. Meanwhile for the second issue, the utilization of entropy concept in interpreting the disorder of temporal rainfall can be used to assess the sustain ability had been successfully adopted in some studies. Therefore, we hypothesized that the use of satellite precipitation as main data to compute entropy can be a novel tool in anticipating the above-mentioned conflict earlier. The remote sensing entropy results and in-situ river level showed good agreement indicating its reliability. 72% of the catchment has moderate to good rainfall supply during normal or non-drought condition. However, our result showed that the catchments were highly sensitive to drought especially in the west coast and southern part of the Peninsular Malaysia. High resiliency was identified in the east coast. We summarized that the proposed entropy-quantity scheme was a useful tool for cost-effective, quick, and operational sustainability assessment This study demonstrated the utility of entropy computation using the satellite precipitation remote sensing data to assess the sustainability of rainfall in tropical catchments.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

processes at the ocean/atmosphere interface that create anomaly gradients in the meridional plane in a way which tends to alter the north-south movement of the seasonal cycle. This appears to be consistent with the intrinsic non-dipole character of the tropical Atlantic surface variability at the interannual time step and over the recent period, but produces abnormal amplitude and/or delayed excursions of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Connections with continental rainfall are approached through three (NCEP/NCAR and observed) rainfall indexes over the Nordeste region in Brazil, and the Guinea and Sahel zones in West Africa. These indices appear to be significantly linked to the SST component of the coupled modes only when the two Atlantic modes+the ENSO-like Nino3 index are taken into account in the regressions. This suggests that thermal forcing of continental rainfall is particularly sensitive to the linear combinations of some basic SST patterns, in particular to those that create meridional thermal gradients. The first mode in the Atlantic is associated with transequatorial pressure, moist static energy and precipitable water anomaly patterns which can explain abnormal location of the ITCZ particularly in northern winter, and hence rainfall variations in Nordeste. The second mode is more associated with in-phase variations of the same variables near the southern edge of the ITCZ, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea during the northern spring and winter. It is primarily linked to the amplitude and annual phase of the ITCZ excursions and thus to rainfall variations in Guinea. Connections with Sahel rainfall are less clear due to the difficulty for the model to correctly capture interannual variability over that region but the second Atlantic mode and the ENSO-like Pacific variability are clearly involved in the Sahel climate interannual fluctuations: anomalous dry (wet) situations tend to occur when warmer (cooler) waters are present in the eastern Pacific and

Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

Science.gov (United States)

Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

1996-10-01

Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

Contribution of landfalling tropical system rainfall to the hydroclimate of the eastern U.S. Corn Belt 1981–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivia Kellner

2016-09-01

Landfalling tropical system rainfall accounts for approximately 20% of the observed monthly rainfall during the tropical storm season (June–November across the eastern U.S. Corn Belt (1981–2012. Correlation between the annual number of landfalling tropical systems and annual yield by state results in no relationship, but correlation of August monthly observed rainfall by climate division to crop reporting district annual yields has a weak to moderate, statistically significant correlation in Ohio districts 30–60 and Indiana CRD 90. ANOVA analysis suggests that landfalling tropical rainfall may actually reduce yields in some state's climate divisions/crop reporting districts while increasing yield in others. Results suggest that there is a balance between landfalling tropical storms providing sufficient rainfall or too much rainfall to be of benefit to crops. Findings aim to provide information to producers, crop advisers, risk managers and commodity groups so that seasonal hurricane forecasts can potentially be utilized in planning for above or below normal precipitation during phenologically important portions of the growing season.

Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

2000-07-01

The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Soil water storage, rainfall and runoff relationships in a tropical dry forest catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Farrick, Kegan K.; Branfireun, Brian A.

2014-12-01

In forested catchments, the exceedance of rainfall and antecedent water storage thresholds is often required for runoff generation, yet to our knowledge these threshold relationships remain undescribed in tropical dry forest catchments. We, therefore, identified the controls of streamflow activation and the timing and magnitude of runoff in a tropical dry forest catchment near the Pacific coast of central Mexico. During a 52 day transition phase from the dry to wet season, soil water movement was dominated by vertical flow which continued until a threshold soil moisture content of 26% was reached at 100 cm below the surface. This satisfied a 162 mm storage deficit and activated streamflow, likely through lateral subsurface flow pathways. High antecedent soil water conditions were maintained during the wet phase but had a weak influence on stormflow. We identified a threshold value of 289 mm of summed rainfall and antecedent soil water needed to generate >4 mm of stormflow per event. Above this threshold, stormflow response and magnitude was almost entirely governed by rainfall event characteristics and not antecedent soil moisture conditions. Our results show that over the course of the wet season in tropical dry forests the dominant controls on runoff generation changed from antecedent soil water and storage to the depth of rainfall.

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Identification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Funk, C.

2014-01-01

Hidden Markov models can be used to investigate structure of subseasonal variability. East African short rain variability has connections to large-scale tropical variability. MJO - Intraseasonal variations connected with appearance of "wet" and "dry" states. ENSO/IOZM SST and circulation anomalies are apparent during years of anomalous residence time in the subseasonal "wet" state. Similar results found in previous studies, but we can interpret this with respect to variations of subseasonal wet and dry modes. Reveal underlying connections between MJO/IOZM/ENSO with respect to East African rainfall.

Variability of rainfall over small areas

Science.gov (United States)

Runnels, R. C.

1983-01-01

A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

2016-04-01

Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Cobb, Alexander R; Hoyt, Alison M; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su'ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F

2017-06-27

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage.

How temporal patterns in rainfall determine the geomorphology and carbon fluxes of tropical peatlands

Science.gov (United States)

Hoyt, Alison M.; Gandois, Laure; Eri, Jangarun; Dommain, René; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Kai, Fuu Ming; Haji Su’ut, Nur Salihah; Harvey, Charles F.

2017-01-01

Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage. PMID:28607068

Empirical studies of the microwave radiometric response to rainfall in the tropics and midlatitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Petty, Grant W.; Katsaros, Kristina B.

1989-01-01

Results are presented from quantitative comparisons between satellite microwave radiometer observations and digital radar observations of equatorial convective cloud clusters and midlatitude frontal precipitation. Simultaneous data from the Winter Monsoon Experiment digital radar and the SMMR for December 1978 are analyzed. It is found that the most important differences between the microwave response to rainfall in the equatorial tropics and to stratiform rain in oceanic midlatitude fronts is caused by the different spatial characteristics of stratiform and convective rainfall and by the different background brightness temperature fields associated with tropical and midlatitude levels of atmospheric water vapor.

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

Science.gov (United States)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-06-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

Science.gov (United States)

Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

2010-05-01

Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the

Design and Performance of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Super NiCd Batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Anisa J.; Rao, Gopalakrishna M.; Jallice, Doris E.; Moran Vickie E.

1999-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan. The observatory is designed to monitor and study tropical rainfall and the associated release of energy that helps to power the global atmospheric circulation shaping both weather and climate around the globe. The spacecraft was launched from Japan on November 27,1997 via the NASDA H-2 launch vehicle. The TRMM Power Subsystem is a Peak Power Tracking system that can support the maximum TRMM load of 815 watts at the end of its three year life. The Power Subsystem consists of two 50 Ampere Hour Super NiCd batteries, Gallium Arsenide Solar Array and the Power System Electronics. This paper describes the TRMM Power Subsystem, battery design, cell and battery ground test performance, and in-orbit battery operations and performance.

Climate change and the impact of increased rainfall variability on sediment transport and catchment scale water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Hancock, G. R.; Willgoose, G. R.; Cohen, S.

2009-12-01

Recently there has been recognition that changing climate will affect rainfall and storm patterns with research directed to examine how the global hydrological cycle will respond to climate change. This study investigates the effect of different rainfall patterns on erosion and resultant water quality for a well studied tropical monsoonal catchment that is undisturbed by Europeans in the Northern Territory, Australia. Water quality has a large affect on a range of aquatic flora and fauna and a significant change in sediment could have impacts on the aquatic ecosystems. There have been several studies of the effect of climate change on rainfall patterns in the study area with projections indicating a significant increase in storm activity. Therefore it is important that the impact of this variability be assessed in terms of catchment hydrology, sediment transport and water quality. Here a numerical model of erosion and hydrology (CAESAR) is used to assess several different rainfall scenarios over a 1000 year modelled period. The results show that that increased rainfall amount and intensity increases sediment transport rates but predicted water quality was variable and non-linear but within the range of measured field data for the catchment and region. Therefore an assessment of sediment transport and water quality is a significant and complex issue that requires further understandings of the role of biophysical feedbacks such as vegetation as well as the role of humans in managing landscapes (i.e. controlled and uncontrolled fire). The study provides a robust methodology for assessing the impact of enhanced climate variability on sediment transport and water quality.

A Tropical View of Atlantic Multidecadal SST Variability over the Last Two Millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E. J.; Rahman, S.

2011-12-01

Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of a 60-80 year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, as well as Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or natural climate variability. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are largely terrestrial-based. Here we present a high-resolution marine sediment-derived reconstruction of seasonal tropical Atlantic SSTs from the Cariaco Basin spanning the past two millennia that is correlated with instrumental SSTs and the AMO for the period of overlap. The full record demonstrates that seasonality is largely controlled by variations in winter/spring SST. Wavelet analysis of the proxy data suggest that variability in the 60-80 year band evolved 250 years ago, while 40-60 year periodicities dominate earlier parts of the record. At least over the last millennia, multidecadal- and centennial- scale SST variability in the tropical Atlantic appears related to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations and its associated northward heat transport that in turn may be driven by solar variability. An inverse correlation between the tropical proxy annual average SST record and Δ14C indicates that the tropics experienced positive SST anomalies during times of reduced solar activity, possibly as a result of decreased AMOC strength (Figure 1).

Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

2014-05-01

Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

Contrasting the co-variability of daytime cloud and precipitation over tropical land and ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin; Cho, Nayeong; Tan, Jackson

2018-03-01

The co-variability of cloud and precipitation in the extended tropics (35° N-35° S) is investigated using contemporaneous data sets for a 13-year period. The goal is to quantify potential relationships between cloud type fractions and precipitation events of particular strength. Particular attention is paid to whether the relationships exhibit different characteristics over tropical land and ocean. A primary analysis metric is the correlation coefficient between fractions of individual cloud types and frequencies within precipitation histogram bins that have been matched in time and space. The cloud type fractions are derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) joint histograms of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness in 1° grid cells, and the precipitation frequencies come from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data set aggregated to the same grid.It is found that the strongest coupling (positive correlation) between clouds and precipitation occurs over ocean for cumulonimbus clouds and the heaviest rainfall. While the same cloud type and rainfall bin are also best correlated over land compared to other combinations, the correlation magnitude is weaker than over ocean. The difference is attributed to the greater size of convective systems over ocean. It is also found that both over ocean and land the anti-correlation of strong precipitation with weak (i.e., thin and/or low) cloud types is of greater absolute strength than positive correlations between weak cloud types and weak precipitation. Cloud type co-occurrence relationships explain some of the cloud-precipitation anti-correlations. Weak correlations between weaker rainfall and clouds indicate poor predictability for precipitation when cloud types are known, and this is even more true over land than over ocean.

Observation-Based Estimates of Surface Cooling Inhibition by Heavy Rainfall under Tropical Cyclones

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Jourdain, N; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Madec, G.; Menkes, C.E.; Vincent, E.M.; Jullien, E.; Barnier, B.

Tropical cyclones drive intense ocean vertical mixing that explains most of the surface cooling observed in their wake (the "cold wake"). The influence of cyclonic rainfall on the cold wake at a global scale over the 2002-09 period is investigated...

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

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Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

Rainfall spatiotemporal variability relation to wetlands hydroperiods

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Serrano-Hidalgo, Carmen; Guardiola-Albert, Carolina; Fernandez-Naranjo, Nuria

2017-04-01

Doñana natural space (Southwestern Spain) is one of the largest protected wetlands in Europe. The wide marshes present in this natural space have such ecological value that this wetland has been declared a Ramsar reserve in 1982. Apart from the extensive marsh, there are also small lagoons and seasonally flooded areas which are likewise essential to maintain a wide variety of valuable habitats. Hydroperiod, the length of time each point remains flooded along an annual cycle, is a critical ecological parameter that shapes aquatic plants and animals distribution and determines available habitat for many of the living organisms in the marshes. Recently, there have been published two different works estimating the hydroperiod of Doñana lagoons with Landsat Time Series images (Cifuentes et al., 2015; Díaz-Delgado et al., 2016). In both works the flooding cycle hydroperiod in Doñana marshes reveals a flooding regime mainly driven by rainfall, evapotranspiration, topography and local hydrological management actions. The correlation found between rainfall and hydroperiod is studied differently in both works. While in one the rainfall is taken from one raingauge (Cifuentes et al., 2015), the one performed by Díaz-Delgado (2016) uses annual rainfall maps interpolated with the inverse of the distance method. The rainfall spatiotemporal variability in this area can be highly significant; however the amount of this importance has not been quantified at the moment. In the present work the geostatistical tool known as spatiotemporal variogram is used to study the rainfall spatiotemporal variability. The spacetime package implemented in R (Pebesma, 2012) facilities its computation from a high rainfall data base of more than 100 raingauges from 1950 to 2016. With the aid of these variograms the rainfall spatiotemporal variability is quantified. The principal aim of the present work is the study of the relation between the rainfall spatiotemporal variability and the

Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

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Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

2014-12-01

The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models

Characterisation of Seasonal Rainfall for Cropping Schedules ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

El Nino-South Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon occurs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean and has been noted to account significantly for rainfall variability in many parts of the world, particularly tropical regions. This variability is very important in rainfed crop production and needs to be well understood. Thirty years of ...

Rainfall variations over the Bay of Bengal and southern Tibetan Plateau and their connections with different tropical forcing during the early and middle summer

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Wang, Z.; Yang, S.

2016-12-01

Strong rainfall always occurs in the South Asia region during the summer monsoon time (May-September), especially over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The latent heating associated with such rainfall drives large-scale circulation and further influences weather and climate anomalies over the world. Few studies have focused on the intraseasonal difference of the rainfall interannual variations. Generally, two precipitation centers appear over the BOB and STP respectively, which are corresponding to the southern and northern upward branches of the South Asian summer monsoon. Our results indicate that the interannual variability of precipitation over the BOB is consistent with that over the STP during the early summer (May-June), but it is contrary during the midsummer (July-August). In early summer, precipitation over the BOB and STP is mainly regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical eastern Pacific (corresponding to the ENSO). Warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific weaken upward motion and further precipitation over the BOB and STP through the modulation of zonal walker circulation. However, the tropical forcing exists over the western Maritime Continent (WMC) during midsummer, which induces the contrary variations of rainfall over the BOB and STP. Warm WMC SST anomalies lead to an anticyclone over the BOB, which is unfavourable to the BOB rainfall. While the southwesterlies at the northwest of that anticyclone favor moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau and thus an enhancement in rainfall over the STP.

Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico.

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Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F.N.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Wickel, A.J.

1999-01-01

Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location-the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico-66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy

Diurnal Variation of Rainfall Associated with Tropical Depression in South China and its Relationship to Land-Sea Contrast and Topography

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Yuchun Zhao

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Convective precipitation associated with tropical depression (TD is one primary type of post-flooding season rainfall in South China (SC. Observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite have shown specific diurnal features of convective rainfall in South China, which is somewhat different from that in other seasons or regions of China. Convective precipitation is usually organized into a rainfall band along the southeastern coast of South China in the early morning hours. The rainfall band develops and intensifies quickly in the morning, then moves inland in the afternoon and, finally, diminishes at night. The daily convective rainfall along the coast is much more than that in the inland region, and heavy rainfall is often found along the coast. A long-duration heavy rainfall event associated with tropical depression “Fitow” during the period from 28 August to 6 September 2001, is selected in this study to explore the diurnal feature of convective rainfall and its formation mechanism. Modeling results of the 10-day heavy rainfall event are compared with both rain-gauge observation and satellite-retrieved rainfall. Total precipitation and its spatial distribution, as well as diurnal variations are reasonably simulated and agree well with observations. Further analysis reveals that the development and movement of convective precipitation is mainly related to the land and sea breezes. The anomalous height-latitudinal circulation in the morning-to-noon hours is completely reversed in the afternoon-to-late-evening hours, with the convective rainfall swinging back and forth, following its updraft branch. Sensitivity experiments show that the afternoon convective rainfall in the inland region of SC is caused by the diurnal variation of solar radiation forcing. The mountain range along the coast and the complex topography in the inland region of SC plays a critical role in the enhancement of diurnal convective rainfall

Detecting the hydrological impacts of forest cover change in tropical mountain areas: need for detrending time series of rainfall and streamflow data.

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Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Balthazar, V.

2012-04-01

Interactions between human activities and the physical environment have increasingly transformed the hydrological functioning of Andean ecosystems. In these human-modified landscapes, land use/-cover change may have a profound effect on riverine water and sediment fluxes. The hydrological impacts of land use/-cover change are diverse, as changes in vegetation affect the various components of the hydrological cycle including evapotranspiration, infiltration and surface runoff. Quantitative data for tropical mountain regions are scarce, as few long time series on rainfall, water discharge and land use are available. Furthermore, time series of rainfall and streamflow data in tropical mountains are often highly influenced by large inter- and intra-annual variability. In this paper, we analyse the hydrological response to complex forest cover change for a catchment of 280 km2 located in the Ecuadorian Andes. Forest cover change in the Pangor catchment was reconstructed based on airphotos (1963, 1977), LANDSAT TM (1991) and ETM+ data (2001, 2009). From 1963, natural vegetation was converted to agricultural land and pine plantations: forests decreased by a factor 2, and paramo decreased by 20 km2 between 1963 and 2009. For this catchment, there exists an exceptionally long record of rainfall and streamflow data that dates back from the '70s till now, but large variability in hydrometeorological data exists that is partly related to ENSO events. Given the nonstationary and nonlinear character of the ENSO-related changes in rainfall, we used the Hilbert-Huang transformation to detrend the time series of the river flow data from inter- and intra-annual fluctuations in rainfall. After applying adaptive data analysis based on empirical model decomposition techniques, it becomes apparent that the long-term trend in streamflow is different from the long-term trend in rainfall data. While the streamflow data show a long-term decrease in monthly flow, the rainfall data have a

Influences of Appalachian orography on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability associated with the passage of hurricane Isabel by ensemble simulations

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Oldaker, Guy; Liu, Liping; Lin, Yuh-Lang

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the heavy rainfall event associated with hurricane Isabel's (2003) passage over the Appalachian mountains of the eastern United States. Specifically, an ensemble consisting of two groups of simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with and without topography, is performed to investigate the orographic influences on heavy rainfall and rainfall variability. In general, the simulated ensemble mean with full terrain is able to reproduce the key observed 24-h rainfall amount and distribution, while the flat-terrain mean lacks in this respect. In fact, 30-h rainfall amounts are reduced by 75% with the removal of topography. Rainfall variability is also significantly increased with the presence of orography. Further analysis shows that the complex interaction between the hurricane and terrain along with contributions from varied microphysics, cumulus parametrization, and planetary boundary layer schemes have a pronounced effect on rainfall and rainfall variability. This study follows closely with a previous study, but for a different TC case of Isabel (2003). It is an important sensitivity test for a different TC in a very different environment. This study reveals that the rainfall variability behaves similarly, even with different settings of the environment.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

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Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

Determination of Areas Susceptible to Landsliding Using Spatial Patterns of Rainfall from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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Renato Fontes Guimarães

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Spatial patterns of shallow landslide initiation reflect both spatial patterns of heavy rainfall and areas susceptible to mass movements. We determine the areas most susceptible to shallow landslide occurrence through the calculation of critical soil cohesion and spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data for Paraty County, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our methodology involved: (a creating the digital elevation model (DEM and deriving attributes such as slope and contributing area; (b incorporating spatial patterns of rainfall derived from TRMM into the shallow slope stability model SHALSTAB; and (c quantitative assessment of the correspondence of mapped landslide scars to areas predicted to be most prone to shallow landsliding. We found that around 70% of the landslide scars occurred in less than 10% of the study area identified as potentially unstable. The greatest concentration of landslides occurred in areas where the root strength of vegetation is an important contribution to slope stability in regions of orographically-enhanced rainfall on the coastal topographic flank. This approach helps quantify landslide hazards in areas with similar geomorphological characteristics, but different spatial patterns of rainfall.

Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

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Jury, Mark R.

2016-11-01

Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

Impacts of rainfall variability and expected rainfall changes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change.

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van der Pol, T D; van Ierland, E C; Gabbert, S; Weikard, H-P; Hendrix, E M T

2015-05-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change given a predefined system performance target, for example a flood risk standard. Rainfall variability causes system performance estimates to be volatile. These estimates may be used to recurrently evaluate system performance. This paper presents a model for this setting, and develops a solution method to identify cost-effective investments in stormwater drainage adaptations. Runoff and water levels are simulated with rainfall from stationary rainfall distributions, and time series of annual rainfall maxima are simulated for a climate scenario. Cost-effective investment strategies are determined by dynamic programming. The method is applied to study the choice of volume for a storage basin in a Dutch polder. We find that 'white noise', i.e. trend-free variability of rainfall, might cause earlier re-investment than expected under projected changes in rainfall. The risk of early re-investment may be reduced by increasing initial investment. This can be cost-effective if the investment involves fixed costs. Increasing initial investments, therefore, not only increases water system robustness to structural changes in rainfall, but could also offer insurance against additional costs that would occur if system performance is underestimated and re-investment becomes inevitable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastically-forced Decadal Variability in Australian Rainfall

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Taschetto, A.

2015-12-01

Iconic Australian dry and wet periods were driven by anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as the worst short-term drought in the southeast in 1982 associated with the strong El Niño and the widespread "Big Wet" in 1974 linked with a La Niña event. The association with oceanic conditions makes droughts predictable to some extent. However, prediction can be difficult when there is no clear external forcing such as El Niños. Can dry spells be triggered and maintained with no ocean memory? In this study, we investigate the potential role of internal multi-century atmospheric variability in controlling the frequency, duration and intensity of long-term dry and wet spells over Australia. Two multi-century-scale simulations were performed with the NCAR CESM: (1) a fully-coupled simulation (CPLD) and (2) an atmospheric simulation forced by a seasonal SST climatology derived from the coupled experiment (ACGM). Results reveal that droughts and wet spells can indeed be generated by internal variability of the atmosphere. Those internally generated events are less severe than those forced by oceanic variability, however the duration of dry and wet spells longer than 3 years is comparable with and without the ocean memory. Large-scale ocean modes of variability seem to play an important role in producing continental-scale rainfall impacts over Australia. While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role in generating droughts in the fully coupled model, perturbations of monsoonal winds seem to be the main trigger of dry spells in the AGCM case. Droughts in the mid-latitude regions such as Tasmania can be driven by perturbations in the Southern Annular Mode, not necessarily linked to oceanic conditions even in the fully-coupled model. The mechanisms behind internally-driven mega-droughts and mega-wets will be discussed.

Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

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Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

2013-04-01

Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

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Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

2017-10-01

This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

Effect of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on Atmospheric Condition and Distribution of Rainfall in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong Regions

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Lumbangaol, A.; Serhalawan, Y. R.; Endarwin

2017-12-01

Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone is an atmospheric phenomenon that has claimed many lives in the Philippines. This super-typhoon cyclone grows in the Western Pacific Ocean, North of Papua. With the area directly contiguous to the trajectory of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone growth, it is necessary to study about the growth activity of this tropical cyclones in Indonesia, especially in 3 different areas, namely Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong. This study was able to determine the impact of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone on atmospheric dynamics and rainfall growth distribution based on the stages of tropical cyclone development. The data used in this study include Himawari-8 IR channel satellite data to see the development stage and movement track of Tropical Cyclone Nock-Ten, rainfall data from TRMM 3B42RT satellite product to know the rain distribution in Gorontalo, Ternate, and Sorong, and reanalysis data from ECMWF such as wind direction and speed, vertical velocity, and relative vorticity to determine atmospheric conditions at the time of development of the Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone. The results of data analysis processed using GrADS application showed the development stage of Nock-Ten Tropical Cyclone has effect of changes in atmospheric dynamics condition and wind direction pattern. In addition, tropical cyclones also contribute to very light to moderate scale intensity during the cycle period of tropical cyclone development in all three regions.

An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

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Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

2010-02-15

Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

Spatial structure of monthly rainfall measurements average over 25 years and trends of the hourly variability of a current rainy day in Rwanda.

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Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Kanevski, Mikhail; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2013-04-01

Climate plays a vital role in a wide range of socio-economic activities of most nations particularly of developing countries. Climate (rainfall) plays a central role in agriculture which is the main stay of the Rwandan economy and community livelihood and activities. The majority of the Rwandan population (81,1% in 2010) relies on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods, and the impacts of variability in climate patterns are already being felt. Climate-related events like heavy rainfall or too little rainfall are becoming more frequent and are impacting on human wellbeing.The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda could disturb the circulation for many days, damages houses, infrastructures and causes heavy economic losses and deaths. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). Globally, the spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front» mechanism. What is the hourly variability in this mountainous area? Is there any correlation with the identified zones of the monthly average series (from 1965 to 1990 established by the Rwandan meteorological services)? Where could we have hazards with several consecutive rainy days (using forecasted datas from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute)? Spatio-temporal analysis allows for identifying and explaining large-scale anomalies which are useful for understanding hydrological characteristics and subsequently predicting these hydrological events. The objective of our current research (Rainfall variability) is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical

Increased rainfall variability and N addition accelerate litter decomposition in a restored prairie.

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Schuster, Michael J

2016-03-01

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and projected increases in rainfall variability (the frequency of drought and heavy rainfall events) are expected to strongly influence ecosystem processes such as litter decomposition. However, how these two global change factors interact to influence litter decomposition is largely unknown. I examined how increased rainfall variability and nitrogen addition affected mass and nitrogen loss of litter from two tallgrass prairie species, Schizachyrium scoparium and Solidago canadensis, and isolated the effects of each during plant growth and during litter decomposition. I increased rainfall variability by consolidating ambient rainfall into larger events and simulated chronic nitrogen deposition using a slow-release urea fertilizer. S. scoparium litter decay was more strongly regulated by the treatments applied during plant growth than by those applied during decomposition. During plant growth, increased rainfall variability resulted in S. scoparium litter that subsequently decomposed more slowly and immobilized more nitrogen than litter grown under ambient conditions, whereas nitrogen addition during plant growth accelerated subsequent mass loss of S. scoparium litter. In contrast, S. canadensis litter mass and N losses were enhanced under either N addition or increased rainfall variability both during plant growth and during decomposition. These results suggest that ongoing changes in rainfall variability and nitrogen availability are accelerating nutrient cycling in tallgrass prairies through their combined effects on litter quality, environmental conditions, and plant community composition.

Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Expected Rainfall Changes on Cost-Effective Adaptation of Water Systems to Climate Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.; Weikard, H.P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2015-01-01

Stormwater drainage and other water systems are vulnerable to changes in rainfall and runoff and need to be adapted to climate change. This paper studies impacts of rainfall variability and changing return periods of rainfall extremes on cost-effective adaptation of water systems to climate change

A Stalagmite record of Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon variability from the Australian tropics

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Denniston, Rhawn F.; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz; Polyak, Victor J.; Brown, Josephine R.; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan D.; LaPointe, Zachary; Ellerbroek, Rebecca; Barthelmes, Michael; Cleary, Daniel; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

2013-10-01

Oxygen isotopic data from a suite of calcite and aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the eastern Kimberley region of tropical Western Australia, represent the first absolute-dated, high-resolution speleothem record of the Holocene Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon (IASM) from the Australian tropics. Stalagmite oxygen isotopic values track monsoon intensity via amount effects in precipitation and reveal a dynamic Holocene IASM which strengthened in the early Holocene, decreased in strength by 4 ka, with a further decrease from ˜2 to 1 ka, before strengthening again at 1 ka to years to levels similar to those between 4 and 2 ka. The relationships between the KNI-51 IASM reconstruction and those from published speleothem time series from Flores and Borneo, in combination with other data sets, appear largely inconsistent with changes in the position and/or organization of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Instead, we argue that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have played a dominant role in driving IASM variability since at least the middle Holocene. Given the muted modern monsoon rainfall responses to most El Niño events in the Kimberley, an impact of ENSO on regional monsoon precipitation over northwestern Australia would suggest non-stationarity in the long-term relationship between ENSO forcing and IASM rainfall, possibly due to changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific over the Holocene.

An Updated TRMM Composite Climatology of Tropical Rainfall and Its Validation

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Wang, Jian-Jian; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David

2013-01-01

An updated 15-yr Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) composite climatology (TCC) is presented and evaluated. This climatology is based on a combination of individual rainfall estimates made with data from the primaryTRMMinstruments: theTRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR). This combination climatology of passive microwave retrievals, radar-based retrievals, and an algorithm using both instruments simultaneously provides a consensus TRMM-based estimate of mean precipitation. The dispersion of the three estimates, as indicated by the standard deviation sigma among the estimates, is presented as a measure of confidence in the final estimate and as an estimate of the uncertainty thereof. The procedures utilized by the compositing technique, including adjustments and quality-control measures, are described. The results give a mean value of the TCC of 4.3mm day(exp -1) for the deep tropical ocean beltbetween 10 deg N and 10 deg S, with lower values outside that band. In general, the TCC values confirm ocean estimates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis, which is based on passive microwave results adjusted for sampling by infrared-based estimates. The pattern of uncertainty estimates shown by sigma is seen to be useful to indicate variations in confidence. Examples include differences between the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Ocean and high values in coastal and mountainous areas. Comparison of the TCC values (and the input products) to gauge analyses over land indicates the value of the radar-based estimates (small biases) and the limitations of the passive microwave algorithm (relatively large biases). Comparison with surface gauge information from western Pacific Ocean atolls shows a negative bias (16%) for all the TRMM products, although the representativeness of the atoll gauges of open-ocean rainfall is still in question.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

2014-12-01

The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tingting Shi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

Rainfall variability over South-east Asia - connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Kripalani, R. H.; Kulkarni, Ashwini

1997-09-01

Seasonal and annual rainfall data for 135 stations for periods varying from 25 to 125 years are utilized to investigate and understand the interannual and short-term (decadal) climate variability over the South-east Asian domain. Contemporaneous relations during the summer monsoon period (June to September) reveal that the rainfall variations over central India, north China, northern parts of Thailand, central parts of Brunei and Borneo and the Indonesian region east of 120°E vary in phase. However, the rainfall variations over the regions surrounding the South China Sea, in particular the north-west Philippines, vary in the opposite phase. Possible dynamic causes for the spatial correlation structure obtained are discussed.Based on the instrumental data available and on an objective criteria, regional rainfall anomaly time series for contiguous regions over Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Philippines are prepared. Results reveal that although there are year-to-year random fluctuations, there are certain epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall over each region. These epochs are not forced by the El Niño/La Nina frequencies. Near the equatorial regions the epochs tend to last for about a decade, whereas over the tropical regions, away from the Equator, epochs last for about three decades. There is no systematic climate change or trend in any of the series. Further, the impact of El Niño (La Nina) on the rainfall regimes is more severe during the below (above) normal epochs than during the above (below) normal epochs. Extreme drought/flood situations tend to occur when the epochal behaviour and the El Niño/La Nina events are phase-locked.

Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

Science.gov (United States)

Seltzer, Alan M.; Buizert, Christo; Baggenstos, Daniel; Brook, Edward J.; Ahn, Jinho; Yang, Ji-Woong; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-10-01

Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm) records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔɛLAND) from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD) and Siple Dome (SD) Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔɛLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 - periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP)-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production), we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔɛLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔɛLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔɛLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔɛLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔɛLAND.

Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Seltzer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔεLAND from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD and Siple Dome (SD Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔεLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 – periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production, we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔεLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔεLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔεLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔεLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔεLAND.

Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K C Gouda

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

Classic Maya civilization collapse associated with reduction in tropical cyclone activity

Science.gov (United States)

Medina, M. A.; Polanco-Martinez, J. M.; Lases-Hernández, F.; Bradley, R. S.; Burns, S. J.

2013-12-01

In light of the increased destructiveness of tropical cyclones observed over recent decades one might assume that an increase and not a decrease in tropical cyclone activity would lead to societal stress and perhaps collapse of ancient cultures. In this study we present evidence that a reduction in the frequency and intensity of tropical Atlantic cyclones could have contributed to the collapse of the Maya civilization during the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD. 800-950). Statistical comparisons of a quantitative precipitation record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) Maya lowlands, based on the stalagmite known as Chaac (after the Mayan God of rain and agriculture), relative to environmental proxy records of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and tropical Atlantic cyclone counts, suggest that these records share significant coherent variability during the TCP and that summer rainfall reductions between 30 and 50% in the Maya lowlands occurred in association with decreased Atlantic tropical cyclones. Analysis of modern instrumental hydrological data suggests cyclone rainfall contributions to the YP equivalent to the range of rainfall deficits associated with decreased tropical cyclone activity during the collapse of the Maya civilization. Cyclone driven precipitation variability during the TCP, implies that climate change may have triggered Maya civilization collapse via freshwater scarcity for domestic use without significant detriment to agriculture. Pyramid in Tikal, the most prominent Maya Kingdom that collapsed during the Terminal Classic Period (circa C.E. 800-950) Rainfall feeding stalagmites inside Rio Secreto cave system, Yucatan, Mexico.

Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2016-01-01

Jan 1, 2016 ... Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model ..... provision of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of a host ...... with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bull.

Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-01-01

The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

Influence of declining mean annual rainfall on the behavior and yield of sediment and particulate organic carbon from tropical watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Strauch, Ayron M.; MacKenzie, Richard A.; Giardina, Christian P.; Bruland, Gregory L.

2018-04-01

The capacity to forecast climate and land-use driven changes to runoff, soil erosion and sediment transport in the tropics is hindered by a lack of long-term data sets and model study systems. To address these issues we utilized three watersheds characterized by similar shape, geology, soils, vegetation cover, and land use arranged across a 900 mm gradient in mean annual rainfall (MAR). Using this space-for-time design, we quantified suspended sediment (SS) and particulate organic carbon (POC) export over 18 months to examine how large-scale climate trends (MAR) affect sediment supply and delivery patterns (hysteresis) in tropical watersheds. Average daily SS yield ranged from 0.128 to 0.618 t km- 2 while average daily POC ranged from 0.002 to 0.018 t km- 2. For the largest storm events, we found that sediment delivery exhibited similar clockwise hysteresis patterns among the watersheds, with no significant differences in the similarity function between watershed pairs, indicating that: (1) in-stream and near-stream sediment sources drive sediment flux; and (2) the shape and timing of hysteresis is not affected by MAR. With declining MAR, the ratio of runoff to baseflow and inter-storm length between pulse events both increased. Despite increases in daily rainfall and the number of days with large rainfall events increasing with MAR, there was a decline in daily SS yield possibly due to the exhaustion of sediment supply by frequent runoff events in high MAR watersheds. By contrast, mean daily POC yield increased with increasing MAR, possibly as a result of increased soil organic matter decomposition, greater biomass, or increased carbon availability in higher MAR watersheds. We compared results to modeled values using the Load Estimator (LOADEST) FORTRAN model, confirming the negative relationship between MAR and sediment yield. However, because of its dependency on mean daily flow, LOADEST tended to under predict sediment yield, a result of its poor ability to

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sivakumar, M.V.K. [World Meteorological Organization WMO, 7bis Avenue de la Paix, 1211 Geneva 2 (Switzerland); Das, H.P. [India Meteorological Department, Shivaji Nagar, Pune, 411005 (India); Brunini, O. [Center for Ecology and Biophysics, 13.020-430-Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

2005-05-01

The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 {+-} 0.2C in the 2020s, 3.1 {+-} 0.3C in the 2050s, and 4.6 {+-} 0.4C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2C per decade to more than 0.5C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Das, H.P.; Brunini, O.

2005-01-01

The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 ± 0.2C in the 2020s, 3.1 ± 0.3C in the 2050s, and 4.6 ± 0.4C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2C per decade to more than 0.5C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature

Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Taylor, C M

2012-09-13

Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

Hemispherically in-phase precipitation variability over the last 1700 years in a Madagascar speleothem record

Science.gov (United States)

Scroxton, Nick; Burns, Stephen J.; McGee, David; Hardt, Ben; Godfrey, Laurie R.; Ranivoharimanana, Lovasoa; Faina, Peterson

2017-05-01

Paleoclimate studies of tropical rainfall have led to a recognition of a predominant pattern of anti-phase behavior between the Northern and Southern hemispheres at both orbital and millennial timescales. Less certain is how regional tropical rainfall patterns have changed in the late Holocene, under boundary conditions and on timescales which are most relevant to the tropics' response to a warming world. Several high-resolution southern hemisphere rainfall records are at odds with meridional movement of the mean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone location as the major driver of Holocene tropical rainfall variability, with regional precipitation patterns resembling modern day El-Niño Southern Oscillation end members. To test emerging ideas on sub-millennial tropical rainfall variability, additional records from the southern hemisphere are required. We present a new speleothem δ18O record from Anjohibe Cave, northwestern Madagascar, which provides a quasi-annual record of monsoonal strength and precipitation amount for the last 1700 years. The majority of δ18O variability in the record is at the decadal scale, and shows little to no correlation with major climate indices or cyclical climate drivers. At lower frequencies, changes in mean speleothem δ18O show good correlation with other regional precipitation records both north and south of the equator. The regional coherency of tropical rainfall across the west Indian Ocean resembles expansion and contraction of the tropical rain belt and positive-Indian Ocean Dipole-like conditions at different timescales. The cause of this coherency could be related to symmetrical changes in continental sensible heating, or to a low frequency sea surface temperature climate mode.

Dynamics of changing impacts of tropical Indo-Pacific variability on Indian and Australian rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ziguang; Cai, Wenju; Lin, Xiaopei

2016-08-01

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduce rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southern Australia. However, since the 1980s, El Niño’s influence has been decreasing, accompanied by a strengthening in the IOD’s influence on southern Australia but a reversal in the IOD’s influence on the Indian subcontinent. The dynamics are not fully understood. Here we show that a post-1980 weakening in the ENSO-IOD coherence plays a key role. During the pre-1980 high coherence, ENSO drives both the IOD and regional rainfall, and the IOD’s influence cannot manifest itself. During the post-1980 weak coherence, a positive IOD leads to increased Indian rainfall, offsetting the impact from El Niño. Likewise, the post-1980 weak ENSO-IOD coherence means that El Niño’s pathway for influencing southern Australia cannot fully operate, and as positive IOD becomes more independent and more frequent during this period, its influence on southern Australia rainfall strengthens. There is no evidence to support that greenhouse warming plays a part in these decadal fluctuations.

Relationships between High Impact Tropical Rainfall Events and Environmental Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.

2017-12-01

While rainfall increases as moisture and vertical motion increase, relationships between regional environmental conditions and rainfall event characteristics remain more uncertain. Of particular importance are long duration, heavy rain rate, and significant accumulation events that contribute sizable fractions of overall precipitation over short time periods. This study seeks to establish relationships between observed rainfall event properties and environmental conditions. Event duration, rain rate, and rainfall accumulation are derived using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 3-hourly, 0.25° resolution rainfall retrieval from 2002-2013 between 10°N and 10°S. Events are accumulated into 2.5° grid boxes and matched to monthly mean total column water vapor (TCWV) and 500-hPa vertical motion (omega) in each 2.5° grid box, retrieved from ERA-interim reanalysis. Only months with greater than 3 mm/day rainfall are included to ensure sufficient sampling. 90th and 99th percentile oceanic events last more than 20% longer and have rain rates more than 20% lower than those over land for a given TCWV-omega condition. Event duration and accumulation are more sensitive to omega than TCWV over oceans, but more sensitive to TCWV than omega over land, suggesting system size, propagation speed, and/or forcing mechanism differences for land and ocean regions. Sensitivities of duration, rain rate, and accumulation to TCWV and omega increase with increasing event extremity. For 3B42 and ERA-Interim relationships, the 90th percentile oceanic event accumulation increases by 0.93 mm for every 1 Pa/min change in rising motion, but this increases to 3.7 mm for every 1 Pa/min for the 99th percentile. Over land, the 90th percentile event accumulation increases by 0.55 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV, whereas the 99th percentile increases by 0.90 mm for every 1 mm increase in TCWV. These changes in event accumulation are highly correlated with changes in event

16,000 Years of Tropical Eastern Ocean Climate Variability Recorded in a Speleothem From Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtzel, J. B.; Abram, N.; Hantoro, W. S.; Rifai, H.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Heslop, D.; Troitzsch, U.; Eggins, S.

2015-12-01

Holocene climate variability in the Indo-Pacific has largely been inferred from sediment cores primarily from the central and eastern Warm Pool region. A limited number of speleothem oxygen-isotope records have provided decadally-resolved time-series of past rainfall variability over the central Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, however no records currently exist for the Indian Ocean sector of the IPWP. Here we present the first continuous, high-resolution (~15year) speleothem record from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, collected from central western Sumatra, Indonesia. Petrographic and geochemical analysis reveals that the sample is primarily composed of aragonite but is punctuated by intervals of primary calcite growth. In addition to Raman spectroscopy, trace element analysis by laser ablation ICP-MS reveals strongly antiphased behaviour between magnesium and strontium, attributed to the strong preference of those elements for the calcite and aragonite lattices, respectively. This relationship is utilized to develop a quantitative correction for the stable isotope fractionation offset between the two calcium carbonate polymorphs identified in the speleothem. The corrected oxygen isotope record shows a rapid transition from drier conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) into a wetter Holocene, similar in timing and pattern to that recorded in Dongge Cave, China. This is strikingly different from other IPWP speleothem records, which show no YD or a wetter YD, suggesting that different mechanisms may be controlling rainfall amount in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. These disparate responses are further explored through proxy-model comparison.

Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 h...

Inter-Annual Variability Of Rainfall In Some States Of Southern Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Egor

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract The study inter-annual variability of rainfall in some states in Southern Nigeria focuses on analyzing the trends and fluctuations in annual rainfall over six states in Southern Nigeria covering a period of 1972 2012. In order to ascertain the variabilitys and to model the annual rainfall for future prediction to enhance policy implementation the quantitative and descriptive analysis techniques was employed. The rainfall series were analyzed for fluctuations using Standardized Anomaly Index SAI whereas the trends were examined using Statistical Package for Social Science Software SPSS 17.0. At 95 percent confidence level observations in the stations may be signals that the wetter period dominates the drier periods in this study. Each of the series contains two distinct periods when the rainfall anomalies negative and positive of a particular type were most significant. The period where the annual rainfall is above one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Wet and the period below one standard deviation from the mean annual rainfall is considered Dry for each station. The results of the linear trend lines revealed an increase in rainfall supply over the period of study especially of recent. The annual rate of increase in rainfall over the period of investigation 1972 - 2012 were 15.21mmyear for Calabar 2.18mmyear for Port Harcourt 22.23mmyear for Owerri 3.25mmyear for Benin City 5.08mmyear for Enugu and 16.29mmyear for Uyo respectively. The variability in amount of annual rainfall revealed that in 2012 Calabar received the highest amount of rainfall of about 4062.70mm and the least value of 2099.4mm in 1973. In Porthacourt the highest amount of rainfall occurred in 1993 with a value of 3911.70mm and the least value in 1983 with a value of 1816.4mm. Owerri recorded the highest amount of rainfall of about 3064.0mm in 2011 and the least value occurred in 1986 with a value of 1228.4mm. In 1976 Benin received the

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM rainfall products from December 1997 to November 2001

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.

2002-01-01

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2001. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DE 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs. west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in strtaiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model.

Sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole and its relation to tropical precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Fei-Fei

2013-01-01

Using different SST datasets, the variability of zonal mean SSTs is investigated. Besides the global warming mode, the variability is dominated by one equatorially symmetric mode and one antisymmetric mode. The former is most pronounced in the Pacific and dominated by interannual variability, corresponding to the ENSO signature. The latter features an inter-hemispheric dipole-like pattern and is referred to as the SST inter-hemispheric dipole (SSTID). The SSTID and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation are found to be related but distinct in the spatial pattern. Observational analysis shows that the SSTID significantly influences tropical rainfall and contributes to the north–south asymmetry of tropical precipitation on multidecadal timescales. The observed SSTID and its relation to the tropical rainfall are realistically reproduced in a control simulation with the UKMO-HadCM3 climate model. Results from the UKMO-HadCM3 simulation suggest that the SSTID is related to the variability of the global ocean northward cross-equatorial heat transport. (letter)

Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

Science.gov (United States)

Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

2016-04-01

Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

Relationships between copepod community structure, rainfall regimes, and hydrological variables in a tropical mangrove estuary (Amazon coast, Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Magalhães, André; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; da Costa, Rauquírio Marinho

2015-03-01

The influence of rainfall and hydrological variables on the abundance and diversity of the copepod community was investigated on a monthly basis over an annual cycle in the Taperaçu mangrove estuary. In general, the results show that there were no clear spatial or tidal patterns in any biological variables during the study period, which was related to the reduced horizontal gradient in abiotic parameters, determined mainly by the morphological and morphodynamic features of the estuary. Nevertheless, seasonal and monthly trends were recorded in both the hydrological data and the abundance of the dominant copepod species. In particular, Pseudodiaptomus marshi (6,004.6 ± 22,231.6 ind m-3; F = 5.0, p < 0.05) and Acartia tonsa (905.6 ± 2,400.9 ind m-3; F = 14.6, p < 0.001) predominated during the rainy season, whereas Acartia lilljeborgii (750.8 ± 808.3 ind m-3; U = 413.0, p < 0.01) was the most abundant species in the dry season. A distinct process of succession was observed in the relative abundance of these species, driven by the shift in the rainfall regime, which affected hydrological, in particular salinity, and consequently the abundance of copepod species. We suggest that this may be a general pattern governing the dynamics of copepod populations in the estuaries of the Brazilian Amazonian region.

Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

Science.gov (United States)

Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

2017-12-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

Soil erodibility variability in laboratory and field rainfall simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Szabó, Boglárka; Szabó, Judit; Jakab, Gergely; Centeri, Csaba; Szalai, Zoltán

2017-04-01

Rainfall simulation experiments are the most common way to observe and to model the soil erosion processes in in situ and ex situ circumstances. During modelling soil erosion, one of the most important factors are the annual soil loss and the soil erodibility which represent the effect of soil properties on soil loss and the soil resistance against water erosion. The amount of runoff and soil loss can differ in case of the same soil type, while it's characteristics determine the soil erodibility factor. This leads to uncertainties regarding soil erodibility. Soil loss and soil erodibility were examined with the investigation of the same soil under laboratory and field conditions with rainfall simulators. The comparative measurement was carried out in a laboratory on 0,5 m2, and in the field (Shower Power-02) on 6 m2 plot size where the applied slope angles were 5% and 12% with 30 and 90 mm/h rainfall intensity. The main idea was to examine and compare the soil erodibility and its variability coming from the same soil, but different rainfall simulator type. The applied model was the USLE, nomograph and other equations which concern single rainfall events. The given results show differences between the field and laboratory experiments and between the different calculations. Concerning for the whole rainfall events runoff and soil loss, were significantly higher at the laboratory experiments, which affected the soil erodibility values too. The given differences can originate from the plot size. The main research questions are that: How should we handle the soil erodibility factors and its significant variability? What is the best solution for soil erodibility determination?

Climatology and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Wintertime Total and Extreme Rainfall in Thailand during 1970-2012

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Atsamon Limsakul

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This study aims at examining wintertime (December-January-February; DJF climatology and spatio-temporal variability of Thailand’s total and extreme rainfall during 1970-2012. Analysis showed that the area along the Gulf of Thailand’s eastern coast not only received much amount of rainfall but also underwent great extremes and variances during the northeast monsoon (NEM winters. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis similarly revealed that the leading mode of each DJF total or extreme rainfall index was marked by maximum loadings concentrated at the stations located at the exposed area of the NEM flow. Correlation analysis indicated that the leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme indices in Thailand tended to be higher (lower than normal during strong (weak East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM. On longer timescales, the recent decadal change observed in the leading EOF mode of all rainfall indices has been coincident with re-amplification of the EAWM taken place since the early/mid 2000. The leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme rainfall indices in Thailand also exhibited strong correlations with the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. It was characterized as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO/El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO-related boomerang-shaped spatial patterns, resembling the typical mature phases of the La Niña event and the PDO cool epoch. Based on our analysis, it is reasonable to believe that the anomalies of the NEM and other key EAWM-related circulations are likely to be the possible causes of DJF total and extreme rainfall variations in Thailand. In addition, the ENSO and PDO as the primary global atmospheric external forcing are likely to exert their influence on wintertime Thailand’s climate via modulating the EAWM/NEM-related circulations anomalies.

The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Malherbe, J

2014-06-01

Full Text Available contribution to rainfall by tropical cyclones and depressions. The findings suggest that a broadening of the Hadley circulation underpinned by an anomalous anticyclonic pattern to the east of southern Africa altered tropospheric steering flow, relative...

Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiang, John C. H. [University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2012-10-29

This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

Science.gov (United States)

Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

2015-12-01

Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release over the Global Tropics using TRMM Rainfall Products from December 1997 to November 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, W.-K.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.; Meneghini, R.; Halverson, J.; Johnson, R.; Adler, R.

2003-01-01

NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) derived rainfall information will be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating and rainfall profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to November 2000. Rainfall, latent heating and radar reflectivity structures between El Nino (DJF 1997-98) and La Nina (DJF 1998-99) will be examined and compared. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental, Indian ocean vs west Pacific, Africa vs. S. America ) will also be analyzed. In addition, the relationship between rainfall, latent heating (maximum heating level), radar reflectivity and SST is examined and will be presented in the meeting. The impact of random error and bias in stratiform percentage estimates from PR on latent heating profiles is studied and will also be presented in the meeting. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model is being used to simulate various mesoscale convective systems that developed in different geographic locations. Specifically, the model estimated rainfall, radar reflectivity and latent heating profiles will be compared to observational data collected from TRMM field campaigns over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed heating budgets and radar reflectivity from these experiments can provide the means to validate (heating product) as well as improve the GCE model. Review of other latent heating algorithms will be discussed in the workshop.

Probabilistic Analysis of Cut-Slope Stability for Tropical Red Clay of Depok, West Java as an Effect of Rainfall Duration and Intensity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakim Sagitaningrum Fathiyah

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Landslide in Indonesia, specifically in Java island, occurs during rainy seasons. In Java island, it is known that the tropical red clay has the ability to stand at steep angles, while in stability analysis due to rainfall, practitioners only consider the rise of groundwater table. Previous studies states that one of the factor affecting factor of safety (FS for tropical red clay slopes is the formation of saturated zones due to matric suction. This research studies the effect of rainfall intensity and duration to FS of cut-slopes as parametric study with probabilistic analysis for different height of 10m, 20m, and 30m also slope angles of 27°, 45°, 55°, and 70°. Rainfall parameter are taken from FTUI rainfall station for advanced pattern and three-days duration of rain. Analysis of seepage uses SEEP/W and slope stability uses SLOPE/W. It is known that the significant increase of probability of failure due to the three-days rainfall is achieved at the 10m height and 70°-angled slope. Increase of the probability of failure is mainly due to rainfall infiltration which saturates the surface and pore water pressure increase until certain time where infiltration stops and turn into surface run-off.

Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Sreekanth, T. S.

Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subimal Ghosh

Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Rainfall variability and its influence on surface flow regimes. Examples from the central highlands of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Osman, M. [Debre Zeit (Ethiopia); Sauerborn, P. [Seminar fuer Geographie und ihre Didaktik, Univ. zu Koeln, Koeln (Germany)

2002-07-01

The article shows results of an international and interdisciplinary project with the title 'Rainfall and its Erosivity in Ethiopia'. Rainfall variability affects the water resource management of Ethiopia. The influence of rainfall variability on flow regimes was investigated using five gauging stations with data availability from 1982-1997. It was confirmed that the variability in rainfall has a direct implication for surface runoff. Surface runoff declined at most of the gauging stations investigated. Therefore, effective water resource management is recommended for the study area. Future research should focus on watershed management which includes land-use and land cover. The question posed here is whether the variability in rainfall significantly affected surface flow in the study area. (orig.)

Temperature variability over the tropical middle atmosphere

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K. Mohanakumar

1994-04-01

Full Text Available A study on the variability of temperature in the tropical middle atmosphere over Thumba (8 32' N, 76 52' E, located at the southern part of India, has been carried out based on rocket observations for a period of 20 years, extending from 1970 to 1990. The rocketsonde-derived mean temperatures over Thumba are corrected prior to 1978 and then compared with the middle atmospheric reference model developed from satellite observations and Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME satellite data. Temperature variability at every 1 km interval in the 25-75 km region was analysed. The tropical stratosphere is found to be highly stable, whereas considerable variability is noted in the middle mesosphere. The effect of seasonal cycle is least in the lower stratosphere. Annual and semi-annual oscillations in temperature are the primary oscillations in the tropical middle atmosphere. Annual temperature oscillations are dominant in the mesosphere and semi-annual oscillations are strong in the stratosphere. The stratopause region is noted to be the part of the middle atmosphere least sensitive to the changes in solar activity and long-term variability.

Optimization of rainfall networks using information entropy and temporal variability analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenqi; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Liu, Jiufu; Zou, Ying; He, Ruimin

2018-04-01

Rainfall networks are the most direct sources of precipitation data and their optimization and evaluation are essential and important. Information entropy can not only represent the uncertainty of rainfall distribution but can also reflect the correlation and information transmission between rainfall stations. Using entropy this study performs optimization of rainfall networks that are of similar size located in two big cities in China, Shanghai (in Yangtze River basin) and Xi'an (in Yellow River basin), with respect to temporal variability analysis. Through an easy-to-implement greedy ranking algorithm based on the criterion called, Maximum Information Minimum Redundancy (MIMR), stations of the networks in the two areas (each area is further divided into two subareas) are ranked during sliding inter-annual series and under different meteorological conditions. It is found that observation series with different starting days affect the ranking, alluding to the temporal variability during network evaluation. We propose a dynamic network evaluation framework for considering temporal variability, which ranks stations under different starting days with a fixed time window (1-year, 2-year, and 5-year). Therefore, we can identify rainfall stations which are temporarily of importance or redundancy and provide some useful suggestions for decision makers. The proposed framework can serve as a supplement for the primary MIMR optimization approach. In addition, during different periods (wet season or dry season) the optimal network from MIMR exhibits differences in entropy values and the optimal network from wet season tended to produce higher entropy values. Differences in spatial distribution of the optimal networks suggest that optimizing the rainfall network for changing meteorological conditions may be more recommended.

Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckley, Carl S; Shaban, Salisu; Palmer, Guy H; Hudak, Andrew T; Noh, Susan M; Futse, James E

2016-01-01

Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B. bigemina prevalence

Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl S Beckley

Full Text Available Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B

The Influence of ENSO to the Rainfall Variability in North Sumatra Province

Science.gov (United States)

Irwandi, H.; Pusparini, N.; Ariantono, J. Y.; Kurniawan, R.; Tari, C. A.; Sudrajat, A.

2018-04-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that affects the variability of rainfall in North Sumatra. The influence of ENSO will be different for each region. This review will analyse the influence of ENSO activity on seasonal and annual rainfall variability. In this research, North Sumatra Province will be divided into 4 (four) regions based on topographical conditions, such as: East Coast (EC), East Slope (ES), Mountains (MT), and West Coast (WC). The method used was statistical and descriptive analysis. Data used in this research were rainfall data from 15 stations / climate observation posts which spread in North Sumatera region and also anomaly data of Nino 3.4 region from period 1981-2016. The results showed that the active El Niño had an effect on the decreasing the rainfall during the period of DJF, JJA and SON in East Coast, East Slope, and Mountains with the decreasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 7%. On the contrary, the active La Nina had an effect on the addition of rainfall during the period DJF and JJA in the East Coast and Mountains with the increasing of average percentage of annual rainfall up to 6%.

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

2009-08-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A

2014-04-01

Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

A Poisson Cluster Stochastic Rainfall Generator That Accounts for the Interannual Variability of Rainfall Statistics: Validation at Various Geographic Locations across the United States

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Dongkyun Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A novel approach for a Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations in the United States. The suggested novel approach, The Hybrid Model (THM, as compared to the traditional Poisson cluster rainfall modeling approaches, has an additional capability to account for the interannual variability of rainfall statistics. THM and a traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model (modified Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model were compared in their ability to reproduce the characteristics of extreme rainfall and watershed response variables such as runoff and peak flow. The results of the comparison indicate that THM generally outperforms the traditional approach in reproducing the distributions of peak rainfall, peak flow, and runoff volume. In addition, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach in reproducing extreme rainfall by 2.3% to 66% and extreme flow values by 32% to 71%.

Maximum covariance analysis to identify intraseasonal oscillations over tropical Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Barreto, Naurinete J. C.; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Mendes, David; Spyrides, Maria H. C.; Pedra, George U.; Lucio, Paulo S.

2017-09-01

A reliable prognosis of extreme precipitation events in the tropics is arguably challenging to obtain due to the interaction of meteorological systems at various time scales. A pivotal component of the global climate variability is the so-called intraseasonal oscillations, phenomena that occur between 20 and 100 days. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is directly related to the modulation of convective precipitation in the equatorial belt, is considered the primary oscillation in the tropical region. The aim of this study is to diagnose the connection between the MJO signal and the regional intraseasonal rainfall variability over tropical Brazil. This is achieved through the development of an index called Multivariate Intraseasonal Index for Tropical Brazil (MITB). This index is based on Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) applied to the filtered daily anomalies of rainfall data over tropical Brazil against a group of covariates consisting of: outgoing longwave radiation and the zonal component u of the wind at 850 and 200 hPa. The first two MCA modes, which were used to create the { MITB}_1 and { MITB}_2 indices, represent 65 and 16 % of the explained variance, respectively. The combined multivariate index was able to satisfactorily represent the pattern of intraseasonal variability over tropical Brazil, showing that there are periods of activation and inhibition of precipitation connected with the pattern of MJO propagation. The MITB index could potentially be used as a diagnostic tool for intraseasonal forecasting.

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Negri, A. J.; Xu, L.; Adler, R. F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

Susceptibility of coarse-textured soils to soil erosion by water in the tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salako, F.K.

2004-01-01

The application of soil physics for the evaluation of factors of soil erosion in the tropics received considerable attention in the last four decades. In Nigeria, physical characteristics of rainfall such as drop size and drop-size distribution, rainfall intensity at short intervals and kinetic energy of rainfall were evaluated using different methods. Thus, compound erosivity indices were evaluated which showed a similar trend in annual rainfall erosivity with annual rainfall amounts. Attempts have also been made to use geostatistical tools and fractal theory to describe temporal variability in rainfall erosivity. High erosivity aggravates the vulnerability of coarse-textured soils to erosion. These soils, high in sand content were poorly aggregated and structurally weak. Thus, they were easily detached and transported by runoff. Long-term data are needed to describe factors of soil erosion in the tropics but quite often, equipment are not available or poorly maintained where available such that useful data are not collected. A greater cooperation of pure physicists, soil physicists and engineers in the developing nations is needed to improve or design equipment and methods for the characterization of factors of soil erosion in the tropics. (author)

Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

2016-12-01

The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

Role of the Angola Low in modulating southern African austral summer rainfall and relationships with synoptic and interannual modes of variability

Science.gov (United States)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien

2017-04-01

The Angola Low has been suggested in many previous studies to be an important regional feature governing southern African rainfall variability during austral summer, which is, in particular, expressed through modulations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall at the interannual timescale. Here, we analyse a variety of state-of-the-art reanalyses (NCEP2, ERA-Interim and MERRA2) and rainfall data (in situ rain-gauges and satellite-derived products) for: i) identifying the recurrent regimes of the Angola Low (position and intensity) at the daily timescale; ii) diagnosing how they modulate the spatio-temporal variability of austral summer rainfall; and iii) examining their relationships with synoptic convective regimes and ENSO, both at the interannual timescale. The recurrent regimes of the Angola Low are identified over the 1980-2015 period by applying a cluster analysis to daily 700-hPa wind vorticity anomalies over the Angola sector from November to March. The exact number and morphological properties of vorticity regimes vary significantly among the reanalyses, in particular when using the lowest spatial resolution reanalysis (i.e., NCEP2) that leads to detect less diversity, smoothest patterns and weakest intensity across the recurrent regimes. Despite such uncertainties, the regimes describing active Angola Low are quite robust among the reanalyses. Three preferential locations (locked over eastern Angola, shifted few degrees eastward or south-westward), which significantly impact on the rainfall spatial distribution over tropical and subtropical southern Africa, are identified. Independently from its location, Angola Low favours moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean and reduces moisture export towards the southeast Atlantic, hence contributing to increase moisture convergence over the subcontinent. Lead/lag correlations with synoptic convective regimes suggest that Angola Low may be a local precursor of tropical

Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

Science.gov (United States)

Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

2011-12-01

In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - a review

Science.gov (United States)

Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; van de Giesen, Nick

2017-07-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Anderson

2009-08-01

Full Text Available The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST.

Science.gov (United States)

Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori

2017-07-19

Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015-2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015-2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.

Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 V7 Rainfall Product over the Oum Er Rbia Watershed in Morocco

OpenAIRE

Hamza Ouatiki; Abdelghani Boudhar; Yves Tramblay; Lionel Jarlan; Tarik Benabdelouhab; Lahoucine Hanich; M. Rachid El Meslouhi; Abdelghani Chehbouni

2017-01-01

In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall measurement sources have become available, such as TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission). In this study, the TRMM 3B42 Version 7 product was evaluated using rain gauge...

Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Poleo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.

On the Characterization of Rainfall Associated with U.S. Landfalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Luitel, B. N.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G. A.

2014-12-01

When we talk about tropical cyclones (TCs), the first things that come to mind are strong winds and storm surge affecting the coastal areas. However, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 59% of the deaths caused by TCs since 1970 is due to fresh water flooding. Heavy rainfall associated with TCs accounts for 13% of heavy rainfall events nationwide for the June-October months, with this percentage being much higher if the focus is on the eastern and southern United States. This study focuses on the evaluation of precipitation associated with the North Atlantic TCs that affected the continental United States over the period 2007 - 2012. We evaluate the rainfall associated with these TCs using four satellite based rainfall products: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique (CMORPH). As a reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by CPC (Daily US Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Precipitation). Rainfall fields from each of these satellite products are compared to the reference data, providing valuable information about the realism of these products in reproducing the rainfall associated with TCs affecting the continental United States. In addition to the satellite products, we evaluate the forecasted rainfall produced by five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC). The skill of these models in reproducing TC rainfall is quantified for different lead times, and discussed in light of the performance of the satellite products.

The Use of Rainfall Variability in Flood Countermeasure Planning

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Iis Catur Wulan Dhari

2017-09-01

Full Text Available One of the impacts of climate change is the unpredictable shifting of seasons and rainfall patterns which caused flooding. Rejoso Watershed in Pasuruan Regency is one of the watersheds that suffer from flooding almost every year due to watershed degradation characterized by land conversion and changes in the hydrological behavior including the extreme rainfall pattern. This research was aimed to investigate the effect of rainfall variability on runoff and floodwater level profile along the river channel to provide technical and non-technical recommendation for handling flood problems. The hydrological analysis was performed using HEC-HMS version 4.0 software and the hydraulic analysis was conducted using HEC-RAS version 5.0.3 software. Several variations of extreme rainfall pattern were applied in the rainfall-runoff calculation to determine the representative flood discharges that will be used as input to the hydraulic simulation for evaluating the characteristics of flood water level. The result of the research shows that rainfall with the same depth yet varies in duration and starting time generate different flood hydrographs. Rejoso River could not store flood discharge with return period of 2 years with peak discharge of 201.46 m3/s that causing overflow along the stream. The recommendation to handle flood problems is by normalization, which could reduce the overtopping at several river reaches of 4,927 m, while the combination of normalization and embankment could reduce 7,843 m from the existing river length of 12,396 m.

Evaluating the Impact of Localized GCM Grid Refinement on Regional Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Synoptic Variability using Variable-Resolution CAM-SE

Science.gov (United States)

Zarzycki, C.; Jablonowski, C.

2013-12-01

Using General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve sub-synoptic features in climate simulations has traditionally been difficult due to a multitude of atmospheric processes operating at subgrid scales requiring significant parameterization. For example, at traditional GCM horizontal grid resolutions of 50-300 km, tropical cyclones are generally under-resolved. This paper explores a novel variable-resolution global modeling approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such multi-resolution GCM designs allow for targeted use of computing resources at the regional level while maintaining a globally-continuous model domain and may serve to bridge the gap between GCMs with uniform grids and boundary-forced limited area models. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. A 110 km CAM-SE grid with a 28 km nest over the Atlantic Ocean has been coupled to land, ocean, and ice components within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We present the results of a multi-decadal climate simulation using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols, which force the model with historical sea surface temperatures and airborne chemical species. To investigate whether refinement improves the representation of tropical cyclones, we compare Atlantic storm statistics to observations with specific focus paid to intensity profiles and track densities. The resolution dependance of both cyclone structure and objective detection between refined and unrefined basins is explored. In addition, we discuss the potential impact of using variable-resolution grids on the large-scale synoptic interannual variability by comparing refined grid simulations to reanalysis data as well as an unrefined, globally-uniform CAM-SE simulation with identical forcing. We also evaluate the

Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel R. Dourte

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

2012-04-01

Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Cristiano

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological response, based on small-scale representation of urban catchment spatial variability. Despite these efforts, interactions between rainfall variability, catchment heterogeneity, and hydrological response remain poorly understood. This paper presents a review of our current understanding of hydrological processes in urban environments as reported in the literature, focusing on their spatial and temporal variability aspects. We review recent findings on the effects of rainfall variability on hydrological response and identify gaps where knowledge needs to be further developed to improve our understanding of and capability to predict urban hydrological response.

Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.

2007-05-01

A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

The role of tropical cyclones in precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America

Science.gov (United States)

Dominguez, Christian; Magaña, Victor

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are essential elements of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical regions. In the present study, the contribution of TCs to seasonal precipitation around the tropical and subtropical North America is examined. When TC activity over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) or the Intra Americas Seas (IAS) is below (above-normal), regional precipitation may be below (above-normal). However, it is not only the number of TCs what may change seasonal precipitation, but the trajectory of the systems. TCs induce intense precipitation over continental regions if they are close enough to shorelines, for instance, if the TC center is located, on average, less than 500 km-distant from the coast. However, if TCs are more remote than this threshold distance, the chances of rain over continental regions decrease, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In addition, a distant TC may induce subsidence or produce moisture divergence that inhibits, at least for a few days, convective activity farther away than the threshold distance. An analysis of interannual variability in the TCs that produce precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America shows that some regions in northern Mexico, which mostly depend on this effect to undergo wet years, may experience seasonal negative anomalies in precipitation if TCs trajectories are remote. Therefore, TCs (activity and trajectories) are important modulators of climate variability on various time scales, either by producing intense rainfall or by inhibiting convection at distant regions from their trajectory. The impact of such variations on water availability in northern Mexico may be relevant, since water availability in dams recovers under the effects of TC rainfall. Seasonal precipitation forecasts or climate change scenarios for these regions should take into account the effect of TCs, if regional adaptation strategies are implemented.

Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F. N.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Wickel, A. J.

1999-12-01

Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location—the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico—66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy climatic data were collected in 1996 and analysed using the Rutter and Gash models of rainfall interception. Throughfall occurred on 80% of the days distributed over 80 rainfall events. Measured interception loss was 50% of gross precipitation. When Penman-Monteith based estimates for the wet canopy evaporation rate (0.11 mm h -1 on average) and a canopy storage of 1.15 mm were used, both models severely underestimated measured interception loss. A detailed analysis of four storms using the Rutter model showed that optimizing the model for the wet canopy evaporation component yielded much better results than increasing the canopy storage capacity. However, the Rutter model failed to properly estimate throughfall amounts during an exceptionally large event. The analytical model, on the other hand, was capable of representing interception during the extreme event, but once again optimizing wet canopy evaporation rates produced a much better fit than optimizing the canopy storage capacity. As such, the present results support the idea that it is primarily a high rate of evaporation from a wet canopy that is responsible for the observed high interception losses.

Quantification of the spatial variability of rainfall based on a dense network of rain gauges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Lisbeth; Jensen, Niels Einar; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

2010-01-01

The spatial variability of rainfall within a single Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) pixel of 500 x 500 m is quantified based on data from two locations. The work was motivated by the need to quantify the variability on this scale in order to provide an estimate of the uncertainty of using a single...... from an earlier campaign in 2003. The fact that the 20072008 dataset was almost four times larger than the original dataset from 2003 motivated this extended study. Two methods were used to describe the variability: the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation structure of the rainfall......% prediction interval for a given rainfall depth is estimated and can be used to address the uncertainty of using a single rain gauge to represent the rainfall within a 500 x 500 m area. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

2007-12-01

Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

Small-scale variability in tropical tropopause layer humidity

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, E. J.; Ueyama, R.; Pfister, L.; Karcher, B.; Podglajen, A.; Diskin, G. S.; DiGangi, J. P.; Thornberry, T. D.; Rollins, A. W.; Bui, T. V.; Woods, S.; Lawson, P.

2016-12-01

Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about -5/3 to -2.

Congo Basin rainfall climatology: can we believe the climate models?

Science.gov (United States)

Washington, Richard; James, Rachel; Pearce, Helen; Pokam, Wilfried M; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

2013-01-01

The Congo Basin is one of three key convective regions on the planet which, during the transition seasons, dominates global tropical rainfall. There is little agreement as to the distribution and quantity of rainfall across the basin with datasets differing by an order of magnitude in some seasons. The location of maximum rainfall is in the far eastern sector of the basin in some datasets but the far western edge of the basin in others during March to May. There is no consistent pattern to this rainfall distribution in satellite or model datasets. Resolving these differences is difficult without ground-based data. Moisture flux nevertheless emerges as a useful variable with which to study these differences. Climate models with weak (strong) or even divergent moisture flux over the basin are dry (wet). The paper suggests an approach, via a targeted field campaign, for generating useful climate information with which to confront rainfall products and climate models.

Rainfall Variability and Landuse Conversion Impacts to Sensitivity of Citarum River Flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dyah Marganingrum

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to determine the sensitivity of Citarum river flow to climate change and land conversion. It will provide the flow information that required in the water resources sustainability. Saguling reservoir is one of the strategic reservoirs, which 75% water is coming from the inflow of Upper Citarum measured at Nanjung station. Climate variability was identified as rainfall variability. Sensitivity was calculated as the elasticity value of discharge using three-variate model of statistical approach. The landuse conversion was calculated used GIS at 1994 and 2004. The results showed that elasticity at the Nanjung station and Saguling station decreased from 1.59 and 1.02 to 0.68 and 0.62 respectively. The decreasing occurred in the before the dam was built period (1950-1980 to the after reservoirs operated period (1986-2008. This value indicates that: 1 Citarum river flow is more sensitive to rainfall variability that recorded at Nanjung station than Saguling station, 2 rainfall character is more difficult to predict. The landuse analysis shows that forest area decrease to ± 27% and built up area increased to ± 26%. Those implied a minimum rainfall reduction to± 8% and minimum flow to ± 46%. Those were caused by land conversion and describing that the vegetation have function to maintain the base flow for sustainable water resource infrastructure.

Predictability of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics variables over South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Phakula, S

2015-09-01

Full Text Available for the homogeneous rainfall regions. Keywords: Retro-active validation, Forecast skill, Area-averaged ROC scores, Reliability diagrams. Introduction Southern Africa is a region of significant rainfall variability on a range of temporal and spacial scales... are evaluated using retro-actively generated hindcasts through canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Retro-active forecast validation is a robust method to assess forecast model performance and give unbiased skill levels (Landman et al., 2001). Two...

ICUD-0147 Extreme event statistics of urban pluvial floods – Return period assessment and rainfall variability impacts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Nielsen, Rasmus; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

2017-01-01

A return period assessment of urban flood has been performed and its adhered impact of rainfall variability studied over a urban drainage catchment area in Aalborg, Denmark. Recorded rainfall from 7 rain gauges has been used, located in a range of 7.5Km and for a period varying form 18-37 years....... Return period of rainfall and flood at catchment and local scale has been estimated, its derived ambiguities analysed and the variability of rain gauge based rainfall investigated regarding to flood estimation results. Results show a clear contrast between rainfall and flood return period estimates...

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Alpert

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the Tocantins-Araguaia hydrographic region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glauber Epifanio Loureiro

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Current paper examines the space-time dynamics of yearly rainfall of the Tocantins-Araguaia Hydrographic Region (TAHR, foregrounded on rainfall volume from isohyet maps and interpolated by Kriging geo-statistical method.  Rainfall space dynamics was undertaken by the analysis of descriptive statistics, Index of Meteorological Irregularity (IMI and Variation Coefficient. Temporal dynamics was analyzed through the distribution of total annual volume precipitation for each TAHR sub-basin by the Standardized Anomaly Index, trend and magnitude test provided by Mann-Kendall and Sen Tests. Results correlated with meteorological anomalies of the Atlantic (Dipole and Pacific (ENOS Oceans show a highly heterogeneous rainfall behavior with temporal variability. Or rather, a decrease of rainfall extensiveness during years of intense meteorological anomaly with a rainfall increase south of the High Tocantins and Araguaia sub-basins and a decrease of rainfall in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin, with El Niño features. Although the Mann-Kendall test does not show statistically a significant trend for rainfall in the TAHR region, Sen’s estimator reveals a decrease in rainfall in the High Tocantins (-1.24 km³ year-1 and Araguaia (-1.13 km³ year-1 sub-basins and a rainfall increase in the Lower Tocantins sub-basin (0.53 km³ year-1 and in the TAHR region (-1.5 km³ year-1.

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jury, Mark R.

2018-05-01

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

Variability of radiatively forced diurnal cycle of intense convection in the tropical west pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gray, W.M.; Sheaffer, J.D.; Thorson, W.B. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

1996-04-01

Strong differences occur in daytime versus nighttime (DVN) net radiative cooling in clear versus cloudy areas of the tropical atmosphere. Daytime average cooling is approximately -0.7{degrees}C/day, whereas nighttime net tropospheric cooling rates are about -1.5{degrees}C/day, an approximately two-to-one difference. The comparatively strong nocturnal cooling in clear areas gives rise to a diurnally varying vertical circulation and horizontal convergence cycle. Various manifestations of this cyclic process include the observed early morning heavy rainfall maxima over the tropical oceans. The radiatively driven DVN circulation appears to strongly modulate the resulting diurnal cycle of intense convection which creates the highest, coldest cloudiness over maritime tropical areas and is likely a fundamental mechanism governing both small and large scale dynamics over much of the tropical environment.

GHRSST L2P Gridded Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) (GDS version 1)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to SSM/I, that contains lower...

Estimation of storm runoff loads based on rainfall-related variables ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2004-11-19

Nov 19, 2004 ... ... rainfall-related variables and power law models – Case study in Alexandra ... and appropriate technology for treating runoff and grey-water. To achieve this ... schools, and other open spaces take up 20% of the area. If the.

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

Science.gov (United States)

Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

2014-05-01

There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Kaiyu; Good, Stephen P.; Caylor, Kelly K.; Medvigy, David; Pan, Ming; Wood, Eric F.; Sato, Hisashi; Biasutti, Michela; Chen, Min; Ahlström, Anders; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-01

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics -i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (-20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review

OpenAIRE

E. Cristiano; M.-C. ten Veldhuis; N. van de Giesen

2017-01-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological processes at high resolution. Weather radars have been introduced to estimate high spatial and temporal rainfall variability. At the same time, new models have been proposed to reproduce hydrological res...

Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

OpenAIRE

W. Anderson; A. Gnanadesikan; A. Wittenberg

2009-01-01

The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly se...

Description of rainfall variability in Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira

OpenAIRE

Iyengar, RN

2004-01-01

Br hat -samhita of Varâha-mihira (5–6th century AD) provides valuable information on the approach in ancient India towards monsoon rainfall, including its measurement and forecasting. In this context, we come across a description of the expected amount of total seasonal rainfall depending on the first rains under the 27 naks atras of Indian astronomy. This provides a rough statistical picture of what might have been the rainfall and its variability in the region around Ujjain, where Varâha-mi...

Rainfall trends and variability in selected areas of Ethiopian Somali ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Moreover, proper spatial distribution of meteorological stations together with early warning system are required to further support local adaptive and coping strategies that the community designed towards rainfall variability in particular and climate change/disaster and risk at large. Keywords: Ethiopian Somali Region, Gode, ...

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Coping with Rainfall Variability in Northern Tanzania

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2012-01-01

This paper explores a potential relationship between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern Tanzania. In addition, correlations...... of household reported harvest shocks differs significantly between districts and correspond to the observed variability in local climate patterns. Coping strategies are focused on spreading risks and include reduced consumption, casual employment, new crops, external support and the selling of assets....... There are no large differences in applied coping strategies across the region, but district-level data demonstrate how local strategies differ between localities within the districts. The results emphasize that in order to target rural policies and make them efficient, it is important to take into account the local...

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas - A review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cristiano, E.; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; van de Giesen, N.C.

2017-01-01

In urban areas, hydrological processes are characterized by high variability in space and time, making them sensitive to small-scale temporal and spatial rainfall variability. In the last decades new instruments, techniques, and methods have been developed to capture rainfall and hydrological

Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

2015-09-01

The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

Shallow and Deep Latent Heating Modes Over Tropical Oceans Observed with TRMM PR Spectral Latent Heating Data

Science.gov (United States)

Takayabu, Yukari N.; Shige, Shoichi; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Hirota, Nagio

2010-01-01

The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. Three-dimensional distributions of latent heating estimated from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR)utilizing the Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm are analyzed. Mass-weighted and vertically integrated latent heating averaged over the tropical oceans is estimated as approx.72.6 J/s (approx.2.51 mm/day), and that over tropical land is approx.73.7 J/s (approx.2.55 mm/day), for 30degN-30degS. It is shown that non-drizzle precipitation over tropical and subtropical oceans consists of two dominant modes of rainfall systems, deep systems and congestus. A rough estimate of shallow mode contribution against the total heating is about 46.7 % for the average tropical oceans, which is substantially larger than 23.7 % over tropical land. While cumulus congestus heating linearly correlates with the SST, deep mode is dynamically bounded by large-scale subsidence. It is notable that substantial amount of rain, as large as 2.38 mm day-1 in average, is brought from congestus clouds under the large-scale subsiding circulation. It is also notable that even in the region with SST warmer than 28 oC, large-scale subsidence effectively suppresses the deep convection, remaining the heating by congestus clouds. Our results support that the entrainment of mid-to-lower-tropospheric dry air, which accompanies the large

Application of GIS to assess rainfall variability impacts on crop yield ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sahara Africa. Hence, this study aim at examines and map spatio-temporal impacts of rainfall variability on water availability for maize yield using Geographic Information System (GIS). Major regions where maize is highly produced in Nigeria were ...

Validation Of TRMM For Hazard Assessment In The Remote Context Of Tropical Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Monsieurs, E.; Kirschbaum, D.; Tan, J.; Jacobs, L.; Kervyn, M.; Demoulin, A.; Dewitte, O.

2017-12-01

Accurate rainfall data is fundamental for understanding and mitigating the disastrous effects of many rainfall-triggered hazards, especially when one considers the challenges arising from climate change and rainfall variability. In tropical Africa in particular, the sparse operational rainfall gauging network hampers the ability to understand these hazards. Satellite rainfall estimates (SRE) can therefore be of great value. Yet, rigorous validation is required to identify the uncertainties when using SRE for hazard applications. We evaluated the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 Research Derived Daily Product from 1998 to 2017, at 0.25° x 0.25° spatial and 24 h temporal resolution. The validation was done over the western branch of the East African Rift, with the perspective of regional landslide hazard assessment in mind. Even though we collected an unprecedented dataset of 47 gauges with a minimum temporal resolution of 24 h, the sparse and heterogeneous temporal coverage in a region with high rainfall variability poses challenges for validation. In addition, the discrepancy between local-scale gauge data and spatially averaged ( 775 km²) TMPA data in the context of local convective storms and orographic rainfall is a crucial source of uncertainty. We adopted a flexible framework for SRE validation that fosters explorative research in a remote context. Results show that TMPA performs reasonably well during the rainy seasons for rainfall intensities controls on, and uncertainties of, TMPA revealed in this study. Moreover, it is found relevant in mapping regional-scale rainfall-triggered hazards that are in any case poorly covered by the sparse available gauges. We anticipate validation of TMPA's successor (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement; 10 km × 10 km, half-hourly) using the proposed framework, as soon as this product will be available in early 2018 for the

Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Michael

2018-01-01

A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

Interannual to Decadal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

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Wang, G.; Newman, M.; Han, W.

2017-12-01

The Indian Ocean has received increasing attention in recent years for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, due mainly to the close interdependence of the climate variation within the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability within the Indian Ocean has not been studied extensively on longer time scales. In this presentation we will show analysis of the interannual to decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) results. We also compare the decoupled Indian Ocean SST variability from the Pacific against fully coupled one based on LIM integrations, to test the factors influence the features of the leading SST modes in the Indian Ocean. The result shows the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode, which is strongly related to global averaged SST variability, passively responses to the Pacific variation. Without tropical Indo-Pacific coupling interaction, the intensity of IOB significantly decreases by 80%. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode demonstrates its independence from the Pacific SST variability since the IOD does not change its long-term characteristics at all without inter-basin interactions. The overall SSTA variance decreases significantly in the Tropical Indian Ocean in the coupling restricted LIM runs, especially when the one-way impact from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean is turned off, suggesting that most of the variability in the Indian Ocean comes from the Pacific influence. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean could also transport anomalies to the Pacific, making the interaction a complete two-way process.

Examining spatial-temporal variability and prediction of rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria

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Muhammed, B. U.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2012-12-01

In the last 50 years rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria under the influence of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been characterised by large annual variations with severe droughts recorded in 1967-1973, and 1983-1987. This variability in rainfall has a large impact on the regions agricultural output, economy and security where the majority of the people depend on subsistence agriculture. In the 1990s there was a sign of recovery with higher annual rainfall totals compared to the 1961-1990 period but annual totals were slightly above the long term mean for the century. In this study we examine how significant this recovery is by analysing medium-term (1980-2006) rainfall of the region using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) precipitation ½ degree, 6 hourly reanalysis data set. Percentage coefficient of variation increases northwards for annual rainfall (10%-35%) and the number of rainy days (10%-50%). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the area shows 7 years during the period as very wet (1996, 1999, 2003 and 2004) with SPI≥1.5 and moderately wet (1993, 1998, and 2006) with values of 1.0≥SPI≤1.49. Annual rainfall indicates a recovery from the 1990s and onwards but significant increases (in the amount of rainfall and number of days recorded with rainfall) is only during the peak of the monsoon season in the months of August and September (pARIMA) model. The model is further evaluated using 24 months rainfall data yielding r=0.79 (regression slope=0.8; pARIMA model and the rainfall data used for this study indicates that the model can be satisfactorily used in forecasting rainfall in the in the sub-humid part of North-eastern Nigeria over a 24 months period.

Historical and future seasonal rainfall variability in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia: Implications for the agriculture and water sectors

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Dewi G.C. Kirono

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change impacts are most likely to be felt by resource-dependent communities, and consequently locally-relevant data are necessary to inform livelihood adaptation planning. This paper presents information for historical and future seasonal rainfall variability in Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB Province, Indonesia, where rural livelihoods are highly vulnerable to current climate variability and future change. Historical rainfall variability is investigated using observational data from two stations located on the islands of Lombok and Sumbawa. Future rainfall is examined using an ensemble of six downscaled climate model simulations at a spatial resolution of 14 km for 1971–2100, applying the IPCC SRES-A2 ‘Business as Usual’ emissions scenario, and the six original global climate models (GCMs. Analyses of the observed seasonal rainfall data highlight cyclical variability and long-term declines. The observed periodicities are of about 2–4, 5, 8, 11, and 40–50 years. Furthermore, dry season rainfall is significantly correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, while wet season rainfall is weakly correlated with ENSO. The simulated rainfall data reproduce the observed seasonal cycle very well, but overestimate the magnitude of rainfall and underestimate inter-annual rainfall variability. The models also show that the observed rainfall periodicities will continue throughout the 21st century. The models project that rainfall will decline, although with wide ranges of uncertainty, depending on season and location. Crop water demand estimates show that the projected changes will potentially impact the first growing period for rice during November–March. Rainfall may also be insufficient to meet water demand for many crops in the second growing period of March–June, when high value commodities such as chillies and tobacco are produced. The results reinforce the importance to consider all uncertainties when utilizing climate

Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models in Capturing Climate Variability for Future Drought and Flood Risk Assessment

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Chowdhury, A. F. M. K.; Lockart, N.; Willgoose, G. R.; Kuczera, G. A.; Kiem, A.; Nadeeka, P. M.

2016-12-01

One of the key objectives of stochastic rainfall modelling is to capture the full variability of climate system for future drought and flood risk assessment. However, it is not clear how well these models can capture the future climate variability when they are calibrated to Global/Regional Climate Model data (GCM/RCM) as these datasets are usually available for very short future period/s (e.g. 20 years). This study has assessed the ability of two stochastic daily rainfall models to capture climate variability by calibrating them to a dynamically downscaled RCM dataset in an east Australian catchment for 1990-2010, 2020-2040, and 2060-2080 epochs. The two stochastic models are: (1) a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model, which we developed in a previous study and (2) a semi-parametric MC model developed by Mehrotra and Sharma (2007). Our hierarchical model uses stochastic parameters of MC and Gamma distribution, while the semi-parametric model uses a modified MC process with memory of past periods and kernel density estimation. This study has generated multiple realizations of rainfall series by using parameters of each model calibrated to the RCM dataset for each epoch. The generated rainfall series are used to generate synthetic streamflow by using a SimHyd hydrology model. Assessing the synthetic rainfall and streamflow series, this study has found that both stochastic models can incorporate a range of variability in rainfall as well as streamflow generation for both current and future periods. However, the hierarchical model tends to overestimate the multiyear variability of wet spell lengths (therefore, is less likely to simulate long periods of drought and flood), while the semi-parametric model tends to overestimate the mean annual rainfall depths and streamflow volumes (hence, simulated droughts are likely to be less severe). Sensitivity of these limitations of both stochastic models in terms of future drought and flood risk assessment will be discussed.

Assessing Climate Variability using Extreme Rainfall and ...

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extreme frequency); the average intensity of rainfall from extreme events ... frequency and extreme intensity indices, suggesting that extreme events are more frequent and intense during years with high rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall from ...

Rainfall Variability across the Agneby Watershed at the Agboville Outlet in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

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Akissi Bienve Pélagie Kouakou

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes, at local and regional scales, the rainfall variability across the Agneby watershed at the Agboville outlet over the period 1950–2013. Daily rainfall data from 14 rain gauges are used. The methods used are based, firstly, on the rainfall index which aims to characterize the inter-annual and decadal variability of rainfall and, secondly, on the moving average to determine the dynamics of the mean seasonal cycle of the precipitations. Furthermore, the Pettitt test and the Hubert segmentation are applied to detect change-point in the rainfall series. At the basin scale, analysis of rainfall signals composites has shown that the rainfall deficit was more pronounced after the leap of monsoon. Dry years were characterized by an early monsoon demise which is remarkable after 1968. Moreover, the years after 1969 presented a shift of the peaks in precipitation for about 12 days. These peaks were reached early. The rainfall signal showed that the rainfall deficit for the period after 1968, relatively to the period before, was 10% in June against 36% in October for the average rainfall in the Agneby basin. At the local scale, the deficit of the peaks depends on the location. These rainfall deficits were 23% against 36.3% in June for the Agboville and Bongouanou rain gauges, respectively.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

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Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

Fires in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest: Testing the Varying Constraints Hypothesis across a Regional Rainfall Gradient.

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Mondal, Nandita; Sukumar, Raman

2016-01-01

The "varying constraints hypothesis" of fire in natural ecosystems postulates that the extent of fire in an ecosystem would differ according to the relative contribution of fuel load and fuel moisture available, factors that vary globally along a spatial gradient of climatic conditions. We examined if the globally widespread seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) can be placed as a single entity in this framework by analyzing environmental influences on fire extent in a structurally diverse SDTF landscape in the Western Ghats of southern India, representative of similar forests in monsoonal south and southeast Asia. We used logistic regression to model fire extent with factors that represent fuel load and fuel moisture at two levels-the overall landscape and within four defined moisture regimes (between 700 and1700 mm yr-1)-using a dataset of area burnt and seasonal rainfall from 1990 to 2010. The landscape scale model showed that the extent of fire in a given year within this SDTF is dependent on the combined interaction of seasonal rainfall and extent burnt the previous year. Within individual moisture regimes the relative contribution of these factors to the annual extent burnt varied-early dry season rainfall (i.e., fuel moisture) was the predominant factor in the wettest regime, while wet season rainfall (i.e., fuel load) had a large influence on fire extent in the driest regime. Thus, the diverse structural vegetation types associated with SDTFs across a wide range of rainfall regimes would have to be examined at finer regional or local scales to understand the specific environmental drivers of fire. Our results could be extended to investigating fire-climate relationships in STDFs of monsoonal Asia.

Applying Spatially Distributed Rainfall to a Hydrological Model in a Tropical Watershed, Manoa Watershed, in Hawaii

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Huang, Y. F.; Tsang, Y. P.

2017-12-01

Rainfall in Hawaii is characterized with high spatial and temporal variability. In the south side of Oahu, the Manoa watershed, with an area of 11 km2, has the annual maximum rainfall of 3900mm and the minimum rainfall of 1000 mm. Despite this high spatial heterogeneity, the rain gage network seems insufficiently capture this pattern. When simulating stream flow and predicting floods with hydrological models in Hawaii, the model performance is often unsatisfactory because of inadequate representation of rainfall data. Longman et al. (in prep.) have developed the spatially distributed daily rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands by applying ordinary kriging, yet these data have not been applied to hydrological models. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the streamflow simulation by applying spatially-distributed rainfall in the Manoa watershed. We first used point daily-rainfall at Lyon Arboretum from National Center of Environmental Information (NCEI) as the uniform rainfall input. Secondly, we summarized sub-watershed mean rainfall from the daily spatial-statistical rainfall. Both rainfall data are available from 1999 to 2014. The SWAT was set up for five-year warm-up, nine-year calibration, and two-year validation. The model parameters were calibrated and validated with four U.S. Geological Survey stream gages. We compared the calibrated watershed parameters, characteristics, and assess the streamflow hydrographs from these two rainfall inputs. The differences and improvement of using spatially distributed rainfall input in SWAT were discussed. In addition to improving the model by the representation of rainfall, this study helped us having a better understanding of the watershed hydrological response in Hawaii.

Generation of intensity duration frequency curves and intensity temporal variability pattern of intense rainfall for Lages/SC

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Célio Orli Cardoso

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The objective of this work was to analyze the frequency distribution and intensity temporal variability of intense rainfall for Lages/SC from diary pluviograph data. Data on annual series of maximum rainfalls from rain gauges of the CAV-UDESC Weather Station in Lages/SC were used from 2000 to 2009. Gumbel statistic distribution was applied in order to obtain the rainfall height and intensity in the following return periods: 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years. Results showed intensity-duration-frequency curves (I-D-F for those return periods, as well as I-D-F equations: i=2050.Tr0,20.(t+30-0,89, where i was the intensity, Tr was the rainfall return periods and t was the rainfall duration. For the intensity of temporal variability pattern along of the rainfall duration time, the convective, or advanced pattern was the predominant, with larger precipitate rainfalls in the first half of the duration. The same pattern presented larger occurrences in the spring and summer stations.

Polarimetric rainfall retrieval from a C-Band weather radar in a tropical environment (The Philippines)

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Crisologo, I.; Vulpiani, G.; Abon, C. C.; David, C. P. C.; Bronstert, A.; Heistermann, Maik

2014-11-01

We evaluated the potential of polarimetric rainfall retrieval methods for the Tagaytay C-Band weather radar in the Philippines. For this purpose, we combined a method for fuzzy echo classification, an approach to extract and reconstruct the differential propagation phase, Φ DP , and a polarimetric self-consistency approach to calibrate horizontal and differential reflectivity. The reconstructed Φ DP was used to estimate path-integrated attenuation and to retrieve the specific differential phase, K DP . All related algorithms were transparently implemented in the Open Source radar processing software wradlib. Rainfall was then estimated from different variables: from re-calibrated reflectivity, from re-calibrated reflectivity that has been corrected for path-integrated attenuation, from the specific differential phase, and from a combination of reflectivity and specific differential phase. As an additional benchmark, rainfall was estimated by interpolating the rainfall observed by rain gauges. We evaluated the rainfall products for daily and hourly accumulations. For this purpose, we used observations of 16 rain gauges from a five-month period in the 2012 wet season. It turned out that the retrieval of rainfall from K DP substantially improved the rainfall estimation at both daily and hourly time scales. The measurement of reflectivity apparently was impaired by severe miscalibration while K DP was immune to such effects. Daily accumulations of rainfall retrieved from K DP showed a very low estimation bias and small random errors. Random scatter was, though, strongly present in hourly accumulations.

Rainfall-threshold conditions for landslides in a humid-tropical system

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Larsen, Matthew C.; Simon, Andrew

1993-01-01

Landslides are triggered by factors such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, and construction on hillslopes. The leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall. A rainfall threshold for rainfall-triggered landsliding is delimited by 256 storms that occurred between 1959 and 1991 in the central mountains of Puerto Rico, where mean annual rainfall is close to or in excess of 2,000 mm. Forty one of the 256 storms produced intense and/or prolonged rainfall that resulted in tens to hundreds of landslides. A threshold fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering storms is expressed as

Synchrony, compensatory dynamics, and the functional trait basis of phenological diversity in a tropical dry forest tree community: effects of rainfall seasonality

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Lasky, Jesse R.; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert

2016-11-01

Interspecific variation in phenology is a key axis of functional diversity, potentially mediating how communities respond to climate change. The diverse drivers of phenology act across multiple temporal scales. For example, abiotic constraints favor synchronous reproduction (positive covariance among species), while biotic interactions can favor synchrony or compensatory dynamics (negative covariance). We used wavelet analyses to examine phenology of community flower and seed production for 45 tree species across multiple temporal scales in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico with marked rainfall seasonality. We asked three questions: (1) do species exhibit synchronous or compensatory temporal dynamics in reproduction, (2) do interspecific differences in phenology reflect variable responses to rainfall, and (3) is interspecific variation in phenology and response to a major drought associated with functional traits that mediate responses to moisture? Community-level flowering was synchronized at seasonal scales (˜5-6 mo) and at short scales (˜1 mo, following rainfall). However, seed rain exhibited significant compensatory dynamics at intraseasonal scales (˜3 mo), suggesting interspecific variation in temporal niches. Species with large leaves (associated with sensitivity to water deficit) peaked in reproduction synchronously with the peak of seasonal rainfall (˜5 mo scale). By contrast, species with high wood specific gravity (associated with drought resistance) tended to flower in drier periods. Flowering of tall species and those with large leaves was most tightly linked to intraseasonal (˜2 mo scale) rainfall fluctuations. Although the 2015 drought dramatically reduced community-wide reproduction, functional traits were not associated with the magnitude of species-specific declines. Our results suggest opposing drivers of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics at different temporal scales. Phenology associations with functional traits indicated that

GHRSST Level 2P Regional Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from the Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) for the Atlantic Ocean (GDS version 1)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to SSM/I, that contains lower...

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

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Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

GHRSST Level 2P Global Subskin Sea Surface Temperature from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite (GDS versions 1 and 2)

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — GDS2 Version -The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) is a well calibrated passive microwave radiometer, similar to the Special Sensor...

The Role of Indian Ocean SST Anomalies in Modulating Regional Rainfall Variability and Long-term Change

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Ummenhofer, C. C.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

2008-12-01

In a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, the potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating low- to mid-latitude precipitation around the Indian Ocean rim countries is explored. The relative importance of various characteristic tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean SST poles, both individually and in combination, to regional precipitation changes is quantified. A mechanism for the rainfall modulation is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, resulting in a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Across western and southern regions of Australia, rainfall anomalies are found to be due to modulations in the meridional thickness gradient, thermal wind, and baroclinicity, leading to changes in the moisture flux onto the continent. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent land masses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell, leading to variations in precipitation of opposite sign across western and eastern regions of the basin. Links between long-term changes in Indian Ocean surface properties and regional precipitation changes in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed in a broader context with implications for water management and seasonal forecasting.

Vertical Motion Changes Related to North-East Brazil Rainfall Variability: a GCM Simulation

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Roucou, Pascal; Oribe Rocha de Aragão, José; Harzallah, Ali; Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge

1996-08-01

The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970- 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationships in the simulation than in the observations. This is particularly true with the SST gradient in the Atlantic (Atlantic dipole). Analyses on 200 ;hPa velocity potential, vertical velocity, and vertical integral of the zonal component of mass flux are performed for years of abnormal rainfall and positive/negative SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in March-April during the rainy season over the Nordeste region. The results at 200 hPa show a convergence anomaly over Nordeste and a divergence anomaly over the Pacific concomitant with dry seasons associated with warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and warm (cold) waters in the North (South) Atlantic. During drought years convection inside the ITCZ indicated by the vertical velocity exhibits a displacement of the convection zone corresponding to a northward migration of the ITCZ. The east-west circulation depicted by the zonal divergent mass flux shows subsiding motion over Nordeste and ascending motion over the Pacific in drought years, accompanied by warm waters in the eastern Pacific and warm/cold waters in northern/southern Atlantic. Rainfall variability of the Nordeste rainfall is linked mainly to vertical motion and SST variability through the migration of the ITCZ and the east-west circulation.

Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

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Fraedrich, K.

2014-12-01

Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

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Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

Rainfall Variability, Adaptation through Irrigation, and Sustainable Management of Water Resources in India

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Fishman, R.

2013-12-01

Most studies of the impact of climate change on agriculture account for shifts in temperature and total seasonal (or monthly) precipitation. However, climate change is also projected to increase intra-seasonal precipitation variability in many parts of the world. To provide first estimates of the potential impact, I paired daily rainfall and rice yield data during the period 1970-2004, from across India, where about a fifth of the world's rice is produced, and yields have always been highly dependent on the erratic monsoon rainfall. Multivariate regression models revealed that the number of rainless days during the wet season has a statistically robust negative impact on rice yields that exceeds that of total seasonal rainfall. Moreover, a simulation of climate change impacts found that the negative impact of the projected increase in the number of rainless days will trump the positive impact of the projected increase in total precipitation, and reverse the net precipitation effect on rice production from positive (+3%) to negative (-10%). The results also indicate that higher irrigation coverage is correlated with reduced sensitivity to rainfall variability, suggesting the expansion of irrigation can effectively adapt agriculture to these climate change impacts. However, taking into account limitations on water resource availability in India, I calculate that under current irrigation practices, sustainable use of water can mitigate less than a tenth of the impact.

Patterns at Multi-Spatial Scales on Tropical Island Stream Insect Assemblages: Gorgona Island Natural National Park, Colombia, Tropical Eastern Pacific

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Magnolia Longo

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Tropical Eastern Pacific island streams (TEPis differ from other neotropical streams in their rainy climate, mixed sedimentary-volcanic geology and faunal composition. Yet, their relationships between environmental characteristics and stream biota remain unexplored. We analyzed the environmental subject at three spatial scales using a fully nested sampling design (6 streams, 2 reaches within each stream, 2 habitats within each reach, and 4 replicates per habitat on Gorgona Island (Colombia. Sampling was carried out in two months with contrasting rainfall during early 2009. We studied the spatial variation of assemblage composition and density along with 27 independent variables within two contrasting rainfall conditions. Five stream-scale variables, two reach-scale variables, and five habitat-scale variables were selected using a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA. A partial CCA showed that the total variance explained was 13.98%, while stream- and habitat-scale variables explained the highest proportion of the variance (5.74 and 5.01%, respectively. Dissolved oxygen (as affected by rainfall, high-density use zone (a management category, and sedimentary geology were the best descriptors of insect assemblages. The two latter descriptors affected fine-scale variables such as total benthic organic matter and gravel substratum, respectively. A Nested ANOVA showed significant differences in total density and richness among streams and habitats, and significant differences between the two sampling months regardless of the spatial scale. The evenness showed a significant stream- and habitat-dependent temporal variability. These results suggested that rainfall regime in Gorgona Island might be a driver of insect assemblage dynamics mediated by water chemistry and substratum properties. Spatial assemblage variability here is greater within habitats (among samples, and a minor fraction occurs at habitat- and stream-scales, while no longitudinal

Rainfall erosivity and sediment load over the Poyang Lake Basin under variable climate and human activities since the 1960s

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Gu, Chaojun; Mu, Xingmin; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju; Sun, Wenyi; Yu, Qiang

2018-03-01

Accelerated soil erosion exerts adverse effects on water and soil resources. Rainfall erosivity reflects soil erosion potential driven by rainfall, which is essential for soil erosive risk assessment. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of rainfall erosivity and its impacts on sediment load over the largest freshwater lake basin of China (the Poyang Lake Basin, abbreviate to PYLB). The spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity from 1961 to 2014 based on 57 meteorological stations were detected using the Mann-Kendall test, linear regression, and kriging interpolation method. The sequential t test analysis of regime shift (STARS) was employed to identify the abrupt changes of sediment load, and the modified double mass curve was used to assess the impacts of rainfall erosivity variability on sediment load. It was found that there was significant increase (P change-points were identified in both 1985 and 2003. It was found that take annual rainfall erosivity as the explanatory variables of the double mass curves is more reasonable than annual rainfall and erosive rainfall. The estimation via the modified double mass curve demonstrated that compared with the period before change-point (1961-1984), the changes of rainfall erosivity increased 8.0 and 2.1% of sediment load during 1985-2002 and 2003-2014, respectively. Human activities decreased 50.2 and 69.7% of sediment load during the last two periods, which indicated effects of human activities on sediment load change was much larger than that of rainfall erosivity variability in the PYLB.

The cross wavelet analysis of dengue fever variability influenced by meteorological conditions

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Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

The multiyear variation of meteorological conditions induced by climate change causes the changing diffusion pattern of infectious disease and serious epidemic situation. Among them, dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne diseases distributed in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Dengue virus is transmitted by several species of mosquito and causing lots amount of human deaths every year around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of meteorological variables to the temporal variation of dengue fever epidemic in southern Taiwan. Several extreme and average indices of meteorological variables, i.e. temperature and humidity, were used for this analysis, including averaged, maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall, maximum 1-hr rainfall, and maximum 24-hr rainfall. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship of meteorological variables and dengue fever epidemic, finding the non-stationary time-frequency relationship and phase lag effects of those time series from 1998-2011 by using cross wavelet method. Results show that meteorological variables all have a significant time-frequency correlation region to dengue fever epidemic in frequency about one year (52 weeks). The associated phases can range from 0 to 90 degrees (0-13 weeks lag from meteorological factors to dengue incidences). Keywords: dengue fever, cross wavelet analysis, meteorological factor

Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

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Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

2000-05-01

This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

Progress in tropical isotope dendroclimatology

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Evans, M. N.; Schrag, D. P.; Poussart, P. F.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2005-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing high resolution proxy network used to characterize the mean state and variability of the hydrological cycle. Here we review early efforts to develop a new class of proxy paleorainfall/humidity indicators using intraseasonal to interannual-resolution stable isotope data from tropical trees. The approach invokes a recently published model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose, rapid methods for cellulose extraction from raw wood, and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. Isotopically-derived age models may be confirmed for modern intervals using trees of known age, radiocarbon measurements, direct measurements of tree diameter, and time series replication. Studies are now underway at a number of laboratories on samples from Costa Rica, northwestern coastal Peru, Indonesia, Thailand, New Guinea, Paraguay, Brazil, India, and the South American Altiplano. Improved sample extraction chemistry and online pyrolysis techniques should increase sample throughput, precision, and time series replication. Statistical calibration together with simple forward modeling based on the well-observed modern period can provide for objective interpretation of the data. Ultimately, replicated data series with well-defined uncertainties can be entered into multiproxy efforts to define aspects of tropical hydrological variability associated with ENSO, the meridional overturning circulation, and the monsoon systems.

Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

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Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2016-04-01

Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

Influences of rainfall variables and antecedent discharge on urban effluent concentrations and loads in wet weather.

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Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao

2017-04-01

For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH 4 + -N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R 2 = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.

Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

OpenAIRE

Fiedler, Paul C.

1992-01-01

Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and...

Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Peleg

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall's spatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and satellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires furthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a new super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with two side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km2 study area near Kibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a detailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall variability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote sensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we present the analysis of the first year's record collected from this network and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study area. The gauge–rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were examined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of the inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale and increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor (VRF, representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain stations per pixel, ranged from 1.6% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07% for the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations are needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF < 5% on a typical radar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall was mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge sampling error contributed up to 20% to the total difference. The ratio of radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the error distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min timescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar errors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10 min should be used for

Multisite rainfall downscaling and disaggregation in a tropical urban area

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Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.

2014-02-01

A systematic downscaling-disaggregation study was conducted over Singapore Island, with an aim to generate high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data under future climate-change conditions. The study consisted of two major components. The first part was to perform an inter-comparison of various alternatives of downscaling and disaggregation methods based on observed data. This included (i) single-site generalized linear model (GLM) plus K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (S-G-K) vs. multisite GLM (M-G) for spatial downscaling, (ii) HYETOS vs. KNN for single-site disaggregation, and (iii) KNN vs. MuDRain (Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation tool) for multisite disaggregation. The results revealed that, for multisite downscaling, M-G performs better than S-G-K in covering the observed data with a lower RMSE value; for single-site disaggregation, KNN could better keep the basic statistics (i.e. standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation and probability of wet hour) than HYETOS; for multisite disaggregation, MuDRain outperformed KNN in fitting interstation correlations. In the second part of the study, an integrated downscaling-disaggregation framework based on M-G, KNN, and MuDRain was used to generate hourly rainfall at multiple sites. The results indicated that the downscaled and disaggregated rainfall data based on multiple ensembles from HadCM3 for the period from 1980 to 2010 could well cover the observed mean rainfall amount and extreme data, and also reasonably keep the spatial correlations both at daily and hourly timescales. The framework was also used to project future rainfall conditions under HadCM3 SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. It was indicated that the annual rainfall amount could reduce up to 5% at the end of this century, but the rainfall of wet season and extreme hourly rainfall could notably increase.

Monthly variations of diurnal rainfall in north coast of West Java Indonesia during boreal winter periods

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Yulihastin, E.; Trismidianto

2018-05-01

Diurnal rainfall during the active monsoon period is usually associated with the highest convective activity that often triggers extreme rainfall. Investigating diurnal rainfall behavior in the north coast of West Java is important to recognize the behavioral trends of data leading to such extreme events in strategic West Java because the city of Jakarta is located in this region. Variability of diurnal rainfall during the period of active monsoon on December-January-February (DJF) composite during the 2000-2016 period was investigated using hourly rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B41RT dataset. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was appears that the diurnal rain cycle during February has increased significantly in its amplitude and frequency. It is simultaneously shows that the indication of extreme rainfall events is related to diurnal rain divergences during February shown through phase shifts. The diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal cycles appear on the characteristics of the DJF composite rainfall data during the 2000-2016 period.The significant increases in amplitude occurred during February are the diurnal (IMF 3) and terdiurnal (IMF 1) of rainfall cycles.

Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

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Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

2017-12-01

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

Empirical downscaling of atmospheric key variables above a tropical glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

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Hofer, M.; Kaser, G.; Mölg, T.; Juen, I.; Wagnon, P.

2009-04-01

Glaciers in the outer tropical Cordillera Blanca (Peru, South America) are of major socio-economic importance, since glacier runoff represents the primary water source during the dry season, when little or no rainfall occurs. Due to their location at high elevations, the glaciers moreover provide important information about climate change in the tropical troposphere, where measurements are sparse. This study targets the local reconstruction of air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed above the surface of an outer tropical glacier from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as large scale predictors. Since a farther scope is to provide input data for process based glacier mass balance modelling, the reconstruction pursues a high temporal resolution. Hence an empirical downscaling scheme is developed, based on a few years' time series of hourly observations from automatic weather stations, located at the glacier Artesonraju and nearby moraines (Northern Cordillera Blanca). Principal component and multiple regression analyses are applied to define the appropriate spatial downscaling domain, suitable predictor variables, and the statistical transfer functions. The model performance is verified using an independent data set. The best predictors are lower tropospheric air temperature and specific humidity, at reanalysis model grid points that represent the Bolivian Altiplano, located in the South of the Cordillera Blanca. The developed downscaling model explaines a considerable portion (more than 60%) of the diurnal variance of air temperature and specific humidity at the moraine stations, and air temperature above the glacier surface. Specific humidity above the glacier surface, however, can be reconstructed well in the seasonal, but not in the required diurnal time resolution. Wind speed can only be poorly determined by the large scale predictors (r² lower than 0.3) at both sites. We assume a complex local interaction between valley and glacier wind system to be the main

Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: Hydrometeorological variability in three neighbouring catchments with different forest cover

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Ramírez, Beatriz H.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Hegger, Zita; Leemans, Rik

2017-09-01

Mountain areas are characterized by a large heterogeneity in hydrological and meteorological conditions. This heterogeneity is currently poorly represented by gauging networks and by the coarse scale of global and regional climate and hydrological models. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCFs) are found in a narrow elevation range and are characterized by persistent fog. Their water balance depends on local and upwind temperatures and moisture, therefore, changes in these parameters will alter TMCF hydrology. Until recently the hydrological functioning of TMCFs was mainly studied in coastal regions, while continental TMCFs were largely ignored. This study contributes to fill this gap by focusing on a TMCF which is located on the northern eastern Andes at an elevation of 1550-2300 m asl, in the Orinoco river basin highlands. In this study, we describe the spatial and seasonal meteorological variability, analyse the corresponding catchment hydrological response to different land cover, and perform a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties related to rainfall interpolation, catchment area estimation and streamflow measurements. Hydro-meteorological measurements, including hourly solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, were collected from June 2013 to May 2014 at three gauged neighbouring catchments with contrasting TMCF/grassland cover and less than 250 m elevation difference. We found wetter and less seasonally contrasting conditions at higher elevations, indicating a positive relation between elevation and fog or rainfall persistence. This pattern is similar to that of other eastern Andean TMCFs, however, the study site had higher wet season rainfall and lower dry season rainfall suggesting that upwind contrasts in land cover and moisture can influence the meteorological conditions at eastern Andean TMCFs. Contrasting streamflow dynamics between the studied catchments reflect the overall system response

Sea level variability in the eastern tropical Pacific as observed by TOPEX and Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Experiment

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Giese, Benjamin S.; Carton, James A.; Holl, Lydia J.

1994-01-01

Sea surface height measurements from the TOPEX altimeter and dynamic height from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TOGA TAO) moorings are used to explore sea level variability in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Afetr the annual harmonic is removed, there are two distinct bands of variability: one band is centered at 5 deg N to 7 deg N and extends from 165 deg W to 110 deg W, and the other band is centered at 10 deg N to 12 deg N and extends from 120 deg W to the coast of Central America. The correspondence between the two independent observation data sets at 5 deg N is excellent with correlations of about 90%. The variability at 5 deg-7 deg N is identified as instability waves formed just south of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during the months of July and March. Wave amplitudes are largest in the range of longitudes 160 deg-140 deg W, where they can exceed 10 cm. The waves disappear when the equatorial current system weakens, during the months of March and May. The variability at 11 deg N in 1993 has the form of anticyclone eddies. These eddies propagate westward at a speed of about 17 cm/s, consistent with the dispersion characteristics of free Rossby waves. The eddies are shown to have their origin near the coast of central America during northern fall and winter. Their formation seems to result from intense wind bursts across the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo which generate strong anticyclonic ocean eddies. The disappearance of the eddies in the summer of 1993 coincidences with the seasonal intensification of equatorial currents. Thus the variability at 11 deg N has very little overlap in time with the variability at 5 deg N.

Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

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Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

2017-05-01

Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

Tropical Rainfall Analysis Using TRMM in Combination With Other Satellite Gauge Data: Comparison with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Results

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott

1999-01-01

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analysis. The procedure used to produce the GPCP data set is a stepwise approach which first combines the satellite low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous IR observations into a "multi-satellite" product and than merges that result with the raingauge analysis. Preliminary results produced with the still-stabilizing TRMM algorithms indicate that TRMM shows tighter spatial gradients in tropical rain maxima with higher peaks in the center of the maxima. The TRMM analyses will be used to evaluate the evolution of the 1998 ENSO variations, again in comparison with the GPCP analyses.

Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic

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Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.

2017-12-01

Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events

Variability of the Tropical Ocean Surface Temperatures at Decadal-Multidecadal Timescales. Part I: The Atlantic Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Vikram M.

1998-09-01

Gridded time series from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas were analyzed with a variety of techniques to identify spatial structures and oscillation periods of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations at decadal timescales, and to develop physical interpretations of statistical patterns of decadal SST variations. Each time series was 110 yr (1882-1991) long. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were compared with decadal variations in a 74-yr-long (1912-85) north Nordeste Brazil rainfall time series and a 106-yr-long (1886-1991) tropical Atlantic cyclone activity index time series. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were also compared with decadal variations in the extratropical Atlantic SST.Multiyear to multidecadal variations in the cross-equatorial dipole pattern identified as a dominant empirical pattern of the tropical Atlantic SST variations in earlier and present studies are shown to be variations in the approximately north-south gradient of SST anomalies. It is also shown that there was no dynamical-thermodynamical, dipole mode of SST variations during the analysis period. There was a distinct decadal timescale (12-13 yr) of SST variations in the tropical South Atlantic, whereas no distinct decadal timescale was found in the tropical North Atlantic SST variations. Approximately 80% of the coherent decadal variance in the cross-equatorial SST gradient was `explained' by coherent decadal oscillations in the tropical South Atlantic SSTs. There were three, possibly physical, modes of decadal variations in the tropical Atlantic SSTs during the analysis period. In the more energetic mode of the North Atlantic decadal SST variations, anomalies traveled into the tropical North Atlantic from the extratropical North Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical North Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled northward into the mid-high-latitude North Atlantic along

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

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Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

1993-01-01

The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

Effects of rainfalls variability and physical-chemical parameters on enteroviruses in sewage and lagoon in Yopougon, Côte d'Ivoire

Science.gov (United States)

Momou, Kouassi Julien; Akoua-Koffi, Chantal; Traoré, Karim Sory; Akré, Djako Sosthène; Dosso, Mireille

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the variability of the content of nutrients, oxidizable organic and particulate matters in raw sewage and the lagoon on the effect of rainfall. Then evaluate the impact of these changes in the concentration of enteroviruses (EVs) in waters. The sewage samples were collected at nine sampling points along the channel, which flows, into a tropical lagoon in Yopougon. Physical-chemical parameters (5-day Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Chemical Oxygen Demand, Suspended Particulate Matter, Total Phosphorus, Orthophosphate, Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen and Nitrate) as well as the concentration of EV in these waters were determined. The average numbers of EV isolated from the outlet of the channel were 9.06 × 104 PFU 100 ml-1. Consequently, EV was present in 55.55 and 33.33 % of the samples in the 2 brackish lagoon collection sites. The effect of rainfall on viral load at the both sewage and brackish lagoon environments is significant correlate (two-way ANOVA, P < 0.05). Furthermore, in lagoon environment, nutrients (Orthophosphate, Total Phosphorus), 5-day Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Chemical Oxygen Demand and Suspended Particulate Matter were significant correlated with EVs loads ( P < 0.05 by Pearson test). The overall results highlight the problem of sewage discharge into the lagoon and correlation between viral loads and water quality parameters in sewage and lagoon.

Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10◦N (north. Kerala) fall into one group and they ...

Impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesia rainfall variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hidayat, R.; Juniarti, MD; Ma’rufah, U.

2018-05-01

La Niña events are indicated by cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While La Niña Modoki occurrences are indicated by cooling SST in central Pacific and warming SST in western and eastern equatorial Pacific. These two events are influencing rainfall variability in several regions including Indonesia. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of La Niña and La Niña Modoki on Indonesian rainfall variability. We found the Nino 3.4 index is highly correlated (r = -0.95) with Indonesian rainfall. Positive rainfall anomalies up to 200 mm/month occurred mostly in Indonesian region during La Niña events, but in DJF several areas of Sumatera, Kalimantan and eastern Indonesia tend to have negative rainfall. During La Niña Modoki events, positive rainfall anomaly (up to 50 mm/month) occurred in Sumatera Island, Kalimantan, Java and eastern Indonesia in DJF and up to 175 mm/month occurred only in Java Island in MAM season. La Niña events have strong cooling SST in central and eastern equatorial Pacific (-1.5°C) in DJF. While La Niña Modoki events warming SST occurred in western and eastern equatorial Pacific (0.75°C) and cooling SST in central Pacific (- 0.75°C) in DJF and MAM. Walker circulation in La Niña Modoki events (on DJF and MAM) showed strong convergence in eastern Pacific, and weak convergence in western Pacific (Indonesia).

The all-year rainfall region of South Africa: Satellite rainfall-estimate perspective

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Climate predictability and variability studies over South Africa typically focus on the summer rainfall region and to a lesser extent on the winter rainfall region. The all-year rainfall region of South Africa, a narrow strip located along the Cape...

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahardjo Harianto

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

Temporal variability in methane fluxes from tropical peatlands within the Peruvian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Wayne; Berrio, Juan Carlos; Boom, Arnoud; Page, Sue; Arn Teh, Yit

2016-04-01

Tropical peatlands are one of the largest soil carbon (C) reservoirs globally and play a significant role in modulating fluxes of C between the tropical biosphere and atmosphere. These C fluxes are of global importance because tropical wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH4); while land-use change and biomass burning also contribute to the growing global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) burden. Amazonian peatlands play a potentially important role in regional and global atmospheric budgets of C because of their large extent. These ecosystems cover an estimated 150,000km2, which is roughly three-quarters the size of Indonesian peatlands; the world's most extensive and well-studied tropical peatlands. Here we report CH4 fluxes from a lowland tropical peatland in the Pastaza-Maranon foreland basin in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the lowland Amazon Basin. Strong prolonged seasonal rainfall events and the annual Amazon River flood-pulse may lead to pronounced temporal variability in biogeochemical cycling and trace gas fluxes, and this study explored how CH4 fluxes varied among wet and dry season periods in a number of key vegetation types in this region. Sampling was concentrated in 3 of the most numerically-dominant vegetation types: Forested Swamp, Mixed Palm Swamp and Mauritia flexuosa-dominated Palm Swamp, with data collection occurring in both wet and dry seasons over a 2 year period from 2012-2014 (4 field campaigns in total). Overall mean CH4 fluxes from the Forested Swamp, Mixed Palm Swamp and Mauritia flexuosa-dominated Palm Swamp for the entire sampling period were 31.06 ± 3.42 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1, 52.03 ± 16.05 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1 and 36.68 ± 4.32 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1. CH4 emissions, when averaged across the entire dataset, did not differ significantly among habitats. However, when CH4 emissions were aggregated by season, the Mixed Palm Swamp showed a significantly different emissions from all other

Rainfall variability and floods occurrence in the city of Bamenda (Northwest of Cameroon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frederic Saha

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study is based on analysis of rainfall data from 1951-2010 collected at the climatic station of Bamenda. We also use the results of a questionnaire survey applied to 172 households in at-risk neighborhoods. The inventory of some cases of flooding that occurred in the city of Bamenda was done through focus groups. The appreciation of the socio-economic and demographic environment is based on surveys among Cameroonian Households by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS and General Census of Population and Housing. Statistical examination revealed that annual rainfall in the city of Bamenda experienced a break in 1958. This break buckled the wettest decade of the series. After three decades of worsening, rainfall is experiencing rising since early 1990. The average profile of the annual distribution of rainfall shows a concentration of over 53% in 03 months (July, August and September. During these three months, the rivers of the city know their flood flows and populations in the valleys are affected. The analysis of the annual number of rainy days shows a downward trend and an increase of extreme rainfall event frequency (≥50mm in 24h. It is also apparent that more and more years are experiencing erratic distribution of their precipitation. Then, the perception of people is significantly reduced. Subsistence activities are also affected and development is facing new subtleties. In conclusion, the rainfall experienced strong variability in the city of Bamenda. This situation reinforces the risk of flooding by increasing flood water and increasing the vulnerability of populations.

Prediction of Meiyu rainfall in Taiwan by multi-lead physical-empirical models

Science.gov (United States)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen; Lu, Mong-Ming

2015-06-01

Taiwan is located at the dividing point of the tropical and subtropical monsoons over East Asia. Taiwan has double rainy seasons, the Meiyu in May-June and the Typhoon rains in August-September. To predict the amount of Meiyu rainfall is of profound importance to disaster preparedness and water resource management. The seasonal forecast of May-June Meiyu rainfall has been a challenge to current dynamical models and the factors controlling Taiwan Meiyu variability has eluded climate scientists for decades. Here we investigate the physical processes that are possibly important for leading to significant fluctuation of the Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Based on this understanding, we develop a physical-empirical model to predict Taiwan Meiyu rainfall at a lead time of 0- (end of April), 1-, and 2-month, respectively. Three physically consequential and complementary predictors are used: (1) a contrasting sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (2) the tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic that is associated with North Atlantic Oscillation, and (3) a surface warming tendency in northeast Asia. These precursors foreshadow an enhanced Philippine Sea anticyclonic anomalies and the anomalous cyclone near the southeastern China in the ensuing summer, which together favor increasing Taiwan Meiyu rainfall. Note that the identified precursors at various lead-times represent essentially the same physical processes, suggesting the robustness of the predictors. The physical empirical model made by these predictors is capable of capturing the Taiwan rainfall variability with a significant cross-validated temporal correlation coefficient skill of 0.75, 0.64, and 0.61 for 1979-2012 at the 0-, 1-, and 2-month lead time, respectively. The physical-empirical model concept used here can be extended to summer monsoon rainfall prediction over the Southeast Asia and other regions.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion

2013-01-01

Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...

Effect of Rainfall Variability on Water Supply in Ikeduru L.G.A. of Imo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

alternatives, which are that there is a strong relationship between rural water supply in ... Rainfall is a renewable resource, highly variable in space and time and ..... Due to the total dependence on the immediate environment for water supply,.

Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Gautam

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2012-09-15

We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

Effects of Drought, Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient

Science.gov (United States)

Gaviria, Julian; Engelbrecht, Bettina M. J.

2015-01-01

Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests

Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability

OpenAIRE

Wieners, C.E.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Ridderinkhof, W.; von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

2016-01-01

A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO mode...

Month-to-month variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2016: role of the Indo-Pacific climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Du, Yan; Gopinath, K.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Singh, Prem

2018-03-01

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during 2016 exhibited a prominent month-to-month fluctuations over India, with below normal rainfall in June and August and above normal rainfall in July. The factors determining the month-to-month fluctuations in ISM rainfall during 2016 are investigated with main focus on the Indo-Pacific climatic anomalies. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with super El Niño 2015 disappeared by early summer 2016 over the central and eastern Pacific. On the other hand, negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) like SST anomaly pattern over the equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) are reported in summer 2016 concurrently with decaying El Niño/developing La Niña phase. Observations revealed that the low rainfall over central north India in June is due to moisture divergence caused by the westward extension of ridge corresponding to WNP anticyclone and subsidence induced by local Hadley cell partly related to negative IOD. Low level convergence of southeasterly wind from Bay of Bengal associated with weak WNP anticyclone and northwesterly wind corresponding to anticyclonic circulation over the northwest India remarkably contributed to positive rainfall in July over most of the Indian subcontinent. While reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent in August 2016 is associated with the anomalous moisture transport from ISM region to WNP region, in contrast to July, due to local cyclogenesis corroborated by number of tropical cyclones in the WNP. In addition to this, subsidence related to strong convection supported by cyclonic circulation over the WNP also resulted in low rainfall over the ISM region. Coupled General Circulation model sensitivity experiments confirmed that strong convective activities associated with cyclonic circulation over the WNP is primarily responsible for the observed negative ISM rainfall anomalies in August 2016. It is noted that the Indo

TRMM and Other Sources Rainfall Product (TRMM Product 3B43) V7

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

Tree rings and rainfall in the equatorial Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Granato-Souza, Daniela; Stahle, David W.; Barbosa, Ana Carolina; Feng, Song; Torbenson, Max C. A.; de Assis Pereira, Gabriel; Schöngart, Jochen; Barbosa, Joao Paulo; Griffin, Daniel

2018-05-01

The Amazon basin is a global center of hydroclimatic variability and biodiversity, but there are only eight instrumental rainfall stations with continuous records longer than 80 years in the entire basin, an area nearly the size of the coterminous US. The first long moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronology has been developed in the eastern equatorial Amazon of Brazil based on dendrochronological analysis of Cedrela cross sections cut during sustainable logging operations near the Rio Paru. The Rio Paru chronology dates from 1786 to 2016 and is significantly correlated with instrumental precipitation observations from 1939 to 2016. The strength and spatial scale of the precipitation signal vary during the instrumental period, but the Rio Paru chronology has been used to develop a preliminary reconstruction of February to November rainfall totals from 1786 to 2016. The reconstruction is related to SSTs in the Atlantic and especially the tropical Pacific, similar to the stronger pattern of association computed for the instrumental rainfall data from the eastern Amazon. The tree-ring data estimate extended drought and wet episodes in the mid- to late-nineteenth century, providing a valuable, long-term perspective on the moisture changes expected to emerge over the Amazon in the coming century due to deforestation and anthropogenic climate change.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeeban Panthi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Landslides, floods, and droughts are recurring natural disasters in Nepal related to too much or too little water. The summer monsoon contributes more than 80% of annual rainfall, and rainfall spatial and inter-annual variation is very high. The Gandaki River, one of the three major rivers of Nepal and one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River, covers all agro-ecological zones in the central part of Nepal. Time series tests were applied for different agro-ecological zones of the Gandaki River Basin (GRB for rainfall trends of four seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter from 1981 to 2012. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine the trends. Decadal anomalies relative to the long-term average were analyzed using the APHRODITE precipitation product. Trends in number of rainy days and timing of the monsoon were also analyzed. We found that the post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfalls are decreasing significantly in most of the zones but monsoon rainfall is increasing throughout the basin. In the hill region, the annual rainfall is increasing but the rainy days do not show any trend. There is a tendency toward later departure of monsoon from Nepal, indicating an increase in its duration. These seasonally and topographically variable trends may have significant impacts for the agriculture and livestock smallholders that form the majority of the population in the GRB.

Global Climatic Indices Influence on Rainfall Spatiotemporal Distribution : A Case Study from Morocco

Science.gov (United States)

Elkadiri, R.; Zemzami, M.; Phillips, J.

2017-12-01

The climate of Morocco is affected by the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean the Sahara and the Atlas mountains, creating a highly variable spatial and temporal distribution. In this study, we aim to decompose the rainfall in Morocco into global and local signals and understand the contribution of the climatic indices (CIs) on rainfall. These analyses will contribute in understanding the Moroccan climate that is typical of other Mediterranean and North African climatic zones. In addition, it will contribute in a long-term prediction of climate. The constructed database ranges from 1950 to 2013 and consists of monthly data from 147 rainfall stations and 37 CIs data provided mostly by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The next general steps were followed: (1) the study area was divided into 9 homogenous climatic regions and weighted precipitation was calculated for each region to reduce the local effects. (2) Each CI was decomposed into nine components of different frequencies (D1 to D9) using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The four lowest frequencies of each CI were selected. (3) Each of the original and resulting signals were shifted from one to six months to account for the effect of the global patterns. The application of steps two and three resulted in the creation of 1225 variables from the original 37 CIs. (4) The final 1225 variables were used to identify links between the global and regional CIs and precipitation in each of the nine homogenous regions using stepwise regression and decision tree. The preliminary analyses and results were focused on the north Atlantic zone and have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (PC-based) from NCAR (NAOPC), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WMO) and the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (NINO12) have the highest correlation with rainfall (33%, 30%, 27%, 21% and -20%, respectively). In addition the 4-months lagged

Estimating tropical vertical motion profile shapes from satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Back, L. E.; Handlos, Z.

2013-12-01

The vertical structure of tropical deep convection strongly influences interactions with larger scale circulations and climate. This research focuses on investigating this vertical structure and its relationship with mesoscale tropical weather states. We test the hypothesis that vertical motion shape varies in association with weather state type. We estimate mean state vertical motion profile shapes for six tropical weather states defined using cloud top pressure and optical depth properties from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The relationship between vertical motion and the dry static energy budget are utilized to set up a regression analysis that empirically determines two modes of variability in vertical motion from reanalysis data. We use these empirically determined modes, this relationship and surface convergence to estimate vertical motion profile shape from observations of satellite retrievals of rainfall and surface convergence. We find that vertical motion profile shapes vary systematically between different tropical weather states. The "isolated systems" regime exhibits a more ''bottom-heavy'' profile shape compared to the convective/thick cirrus and vigorous deep convective regimes, with maximum upward vertical motion occurring in the lower troposphere rather than the middle to upper troposphere. The variability we observe with our method does not coincide with that expected based on conventional ideas about how stratiform rain fraction and vertical motion are related.

Global Lightning Climatology from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD)

Science.gov (United States)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2015-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has been collecting observations of total lightning in the global tropics and subtropics (roughly 38 deg S - 38 deg N) since December 1997. A similar instrument, the Optical Transient Detector, operated from 1995-2000 on another low earth orbit satellite that also saw high latitudes. Lightning data from these instruments have been used to create gridded climatologies and time series of lightning flash rate. These include a 0.5 deg resolution global annual climatology, and lower resolution products describing the annual cycle and the diurnal cycle. These products are updated annually. Results from the update through 2013 will be shown at the conference. The gridded products are publicly available for download. Descriptions of how each product can be used will be discussed, including strengths, weaknesses, and caveats about the smoothing and sampling used in various products.

Agro-Science Journal of Tropical Agriculture, Food, Environment ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

OLUWOLE AKINNAGBE

2009-09-03

Sep 3, 2009 ... Agro-Science Journal of Tropical Agriculture, Food, Environment and Extension. Volume 8 ... 3 International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, High Rainfall Station,. Onne, Rivers State ...... Biosciences proceedings. 6: 444-454.

Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events, and number of dry days in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1955-2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Climate variability is a threat to water resources on a global scale and in tropical regions in particular. Rainfall events and patterns are associated worldwide with natural disasters like mudslides and landslides, meteorological phenomena like hurricanes, risks/hazards including severe storms and flooding, and health effects like vector-borne and waterborne diseases. Therefore, in the context of global change, research on rainfall patterns and their variations presents a challenge to the scientific community. The main objective of this research was to analyze recent trends in precipitation in the San Juan metropolitan area in Puerto Rico and their relationship with regional and global climate variations. The statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. All stations showed positive trends of increasing annual rainfall between 1955 and 2009. The winter months of January and February had an increase in monthly rainfall, although winter is normally a dry season on the island. Regarding dry days, we found an annual decreasing trend, also specifically in winter. In terms of numbers of severe rainfall events described as more than 78 mm in 24 hours, 63 episodes have occurred in the San Juan area in the last decade, specifically in the 2000-2009 time frame, with an average of 6 severe events per year. The majority of the episodes occurred in summer, more frequently in August and September. These results can be seen as a clear example of the complexity of spatial and temporal of rainfall distribution over a tropical city.

Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial

Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

OpenAIRE

Rahardjo Harianto; Satyanaga Alfrendo; Leong Eng Choon

2016-01-01

Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in d...

Natural and near natural tropical forest values

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel H. Henning

2011-01-01

This paper identifies and describes some of the values associated with tropical rain forests in their natural and near-natural conditions. Tropical rain forests are moist forests in the humid tropics where temperature and rainfall are high and the dry season is short. These closed (non-logged) and broad-leaved forests are a global resource. Located almost entirely in...

Infiltration and Runoff Measurements on Steep Burned Hillslopes Using a Rainfall Simulator with Variable Rain Intensities

Science.gov (United States)

Kinner, David A.; Moody, John A.

2008-01-01

Multiple rainfall intensities were used in rainfall-simulation experiments designed to investigate the infiltration and runoff from 1-square-meter plots on burned hillslopes covered by an ash layer of varying thickness. The 1-square-meter plots were on north- and south-facing hillslopes in an area burned by the Overland fire northwest of Boulder near Jamestown on the Front Range of Colorado. A single-nozzle, wide-angle, multi-intensity rain simulator was developed to investigate the infiltration and runoff on steep (30- to 40-percent gradient) burned hillslopes covered with ash. The simulated rainfall was evaluated for spatial variability, drop size, and kinetic energy. Fourteen rainfall simulations, at three intensities (about 20 millimeters per hour [mm/h], 35 mm/h, and 50 mm/h), were conducted on four plots. Measurements during and after the simulations included runoff, rainfall, suspended-sediment concentrations, surface ash layer thickness, soil moisture, soil grain size, soil lost on ignition, and plot topography. Runoff discharge reached a steady state within 7 to 26 minutes. Steady infiltration rates with the 50-mm/h application rainfall intensity approached 20?35 mm/h. If these rates are projected to rainfall application intensities used in many studies of burned area runoff production (about 80 mm/h), the steady discharge rates are on the lower end of measurements from other studies. Experiments using multiple rainfall intensities (three) suggest that runoff begins at rainfall intensities around 20 mm/h at the 1-square-meter scale, an observation consistent with a 10-mm/h rainfall intensity threshold needed for runoff initiation that has been reported in the literature.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Productive vegetation: relationships between net primary productivity, vegetation types and climate change in the Wet Tropics bioregion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez, Vanessa Valdez; Williams, Stephen E.; VanDerWal, Jeremy

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: There is now ample evidence demonstrating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and human society (Walther ef a/. 2002). Numerous studies have shown climate change is one of the most significant threats to tropical forests, such as the Wet Tropics Heritage Area, due to their high biodiversity and endemism (Pounds ef al. 1999; Hughes 2000; Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Williams ef al. (2003) suggested that small shifts in net primary productivity (NPP) as a result of climate change could lead to potentially massive follow-on effects for the extremely diverse and vulnerable rainforest flora and fauna. It is therefore crucial to explore the relationships between NPP and local biodiversity, especially to create models for different climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, NPP in the Wet Tropics has yet to be estimated. This is the first study to provide a general NPP estimate for the Wet Tropics bioregion using climate surrogates (Schuur 2003). This technique estimates NPP in an accurate, repeatable, and cost-effective way. NPP values were linked to vegetation types and examined under various climatic and environmental conditions. Results show a significant difference in productivity according to vegetation types and climatic variables, with temperature and rainfall seasonality as the most important determining variables. Additionally, lowland and upland vegetations showed a significant difference in productivity patterns throughout the year. Vegetation types located above 1000 metres in altitude had the lowest values of mean annual productivity due to their high rainfall and low temperatures; vegetation types located below 600 metres showed increased productivity values during the wet season (December-March). Net primary productivity will certainly be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall, due to climate change. Although an increase in NPP values can be predicted for upland areas, the more widely distributed lowlands will drastically

Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moore, A.M. [Bureau of Meterology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)

1995-04-01

A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.

Climate Change Impact on Variability of Rainfall Intensity in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worku, L. Y.

2015-12-01

Extreme rainfall events are major problems in Ethiopia with the resulting floods that usually could cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, infrastructure, disruption to human activities, loss of property, loss of lives and disease outbreak. The aim of this study was to explore the likely changes of precipitation extreme changes due to future climate change. The study specifically focuses to understand the future climate change impact on variability of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency in Upper Blue Nile basin. Precipitations data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used in the study are HadCM3 and CGCM3. Rainfall frequency analysis was carried out to estimate quantile with different return periods. Probability Weighted Method (PWM) selected estimation of parameter distribution and L-Moment Ratio Diagrams (LMRDs) used to find the best parent distribution for each station. Therefore, parent distributions for derived from frequency analysis are Generalized Logistic (GLOG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma & Pearson III (P3) parent distribution. After analyzing estimated quantile simple disaggregation model was applied in order to find sub daily rainfall data. Finally the disaggregated rainfall is fitted to find IDF curve and the result shows in most parts of the basin rainfall intensity expected to increase in the future. As a result of the two GCM outputs, the study indicates there will be likely increase of precipitation extremes over the Blue Nile basin due to the changing climate. This study should be interpreted with caution as the GCM model outputs in this part of the world have huge uncertainty.

Daily TRMM and Others Rainfall Estimate (3B42 V7 derived) V7

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

Proxies of Tropical Cyclone Isotope Spikes in Precipitation: Landfall Site Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, J. R.; Maddocks, R.

2011-12-01

The human experience of climate change is not one of gradual changes in seasonal or yearly changes in temperature or rainfall. Despite that most paleoclimatic reconstructions attempt to provide just such information. Humans experience climate change on much shorter time scales. We remember hurricanes, weeks of drought or overwhelming rainy periods. Tropical cyclones produce very low isotope ratios in both rainfall and in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, climate proxies that potentially record these low isotope ratios offer the most concrete record of climate change to which humans can relate. The oxygen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in fresh water carbonate fossil material, cave deposits and corals. The hydrogen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in tree ring cellulose and organic matter in fresh water bodies. The Class of carbonate organisms known as Ostracoda form their carapaces very rapidly. Thus fresh water ephemeral ponds in the subtropics are ideal locations for isotopic studies because they commonly are totally dry when tropical cyclones make landfall. The other proxies suffer primarily from a dilution effect. The water from tropical cyclones is mixed with pre-existing water. In cave deposits tropical cyclone rains mix with soil and ground waters. In the near shore coral environment the rain mixes with seawater. For tree rings there are three sources of water: soil water, atmospheric water vapor that exchanges with leaf water and tropical cyclone rain. In lakes because of their large size rainfall runoff mixes with ground water and preexisting water in the lake. A region that shows considerable promise is Texas / Northeast Mexico. In a study of surface waters that developed from the passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in SE Texas both the pond water and Ostracoda that bloomed recorded the low oxygen isotope signal of that storm (Lawrence et al, 2008). In

Effects of Rainfall Intensity and Slope Angle on Splash Erosion in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Soil erosion is a critical global environmental problem, especially in the developing countries including Nigeria. In the humid and sub-humid tropics, splash erosion resulting from intense rainfall and slope degree pose severe land degradation problems. The objective of this study is to assess the effects of some rainfall ...

Stemflow Variability in Tropical Lowland Forest Landscape Transformation System: Case Study at Jambi Province, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bejo Slamet

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Land cover change may cause change on the hydrological function of an area, particularly on the distribution of rainfall that reach land surface. This study describes the characteristic of stemflow occurred within 4 ecosystems in Jambi, namely logged forest, jungle rubber, rubber plantation, and oil palm plantation. The main objective of the study was to measure the variability of stemflow in those 4 ecosystems. The main data used were rainfall and stemflow data that were directly measured for 5 months. The derived regression equation model showed that stemflow increase with rainfall depth. It was shown that values of stemflow amongs plantation types was varied indicated by the difference of its regression coefficients, as well as variations of the rainfall at the same transformation type. The percentage of stemflow to rainfall was ranging from 0.04–0.21% for rubber, 0.10–0.38% for jungle rubber, 0.28–0.54% for forest, and 0.84–3.07% for oil palm. The oil palm provided the highest stemflow volume compared to other land cover type. The uniqueness of oil palm canopy may cause the drainage of water from the canopy to the main stem that indicated by highest stemflow funneling ratio value. Rainfall significantly affected the amount of stemflow compared with the characteristics of the plant. Keywords: forest transformation, land cover change, stemflow variability, stemflow funnelling ratio

Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong

2018-04-01

The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marshall, Andrew G. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, (Australia); Hudson, Debra; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H.; Alves, Oscar [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia)

2011-12-15

We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December-February (austral summer) and least realistic in March-May (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3 weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October-March. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3 weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. (orig.)

Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

Science.gov (United States)

Amitai, E.; Wolff, D. B.; Robinson, M.; Silberstein, D. S.; Marks, D. A.; Kulie, M. S.; Fisher, B.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

Rainfall interception and spatial variability of throughfall in spruce stand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dohnal Michal

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The interception was recognized as an important part of the catchment water balance in temperate climate. The mountainous forest ecosystem at experimental headwater catchment Liz has been subject of long-term monitoring. Unique dataset in terms of time resolution serves to determine canopy storage capacity and free throughfall. Spatial variability of throughfall was studied using one weighing and five tipping bucket rain gauges. The basic characteristics of forest affecting interception process were determined for the Norway spruce stand at the experimental area - the leaf area index was 5.66 - 6.00 m2 m-2, the basal area was 55.7 m2 ha-1, and the crown closure above individual rain gauges was between 19 and 95%. The total interception loss in both growing seasons analyzed was 34.5%. The mean value of the interception capacity determined was about 2 mm. Throughfall exhibited high variability from place to place and it was strongly affected by character of rainfall. On the other hand, spatial pattern of throughfall in average showed low variability.

Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection

Science.gov (United States)

Kleppin, H.

2016-02-01

Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).

Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Senfeng; Duan, Anmin

2017-02-01

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

2018-03-01

Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

TRMM 3-Hourly 0.25 deg. TRMM and Other-GPI Calibration Rainfall Data V7

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to monitor tropical and subtropical precipitation and to estimate its...

Vegetation Variability And Its Effect On Monsoon Rainfall Over South East Asia: Observational and Modeling Results

Science.gov (United States)

Sarkar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chiu, L.; Kafatos, M.

2005-12-01

Increasing population and urbanization have created stress on developing nations. The quickly shifting patterns of vegetation change in different parts of the world have given rise to the pertinent question of feedback on the climate prevailing on local to regional scales. It is now known with some certainty, that vegetation changes can affect the climate by influencing the heat and water balance. The hydrological cycle particularly is susceptible to changes in vegetation. The Monsoon rainfall forms a vital link in the hydrological cycle prevailing over South East Asia This work examines the variability of vegetation over South East Asia and assesses its impact on the monsoon rainfall. We explain the role of changing vegetation and show how this change has affected the heat and energy balance. We demonstrate the role of vegetation one season earlier in influencing rainfall intensity over specific areas in South East Asia and show the ramification of vegetation change on the summer rainfall behavior. The vegetation variability study specifically focuses on India and China, two of the largest and most populous nations. We have done an assessment to find out the key meteorological and human induced parameters affecting vegetation over the study area through a spatial analysis of monthly NDVI values. This study highlights the role of monsoon rainfall, regional climate dynamics and large scale human induced pollution to be the crucial factors governing the vegetation and vegetation distribution. The vegetation is seen to follow distinct spatial patterns that have been found to be crucial in its eventual impact on monsoon rainfall. We have carried out a series of sensitivity experiments using a land surface hydrologic modeling scheme. The vital energy and water balance parameters are identified and the daily climatological cycles are examined for possible change in behavior for different boundary conditions. It is found that the change from native deciduous forest

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

2015-04-01

We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Rainfall variability, climate change and regionalization in the African monsoon region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontaine, Bernard; Roucou, Pascal; Vigaud, Nicolas; Camara, Moctar; Konare, Abdourahamane; Sanda, Seidou Ibrah; Diedhiou, Arona; Janicot, Serge

2012-01-01

This summary recalls some results at the end of the AMMA international experiment (2003-2010) in terms of variability of the African monsoon at the intra-seasonal to multi-decadal scales and of climate prospective. The results confirmed the weight of surface temperatures and marine tele-connections for inter-annual and decadal fluctuations and stressed the importance of atmospheric variability. They also described the dominant modes of intra-seasonal variability as their interactions with the surface. Several hypotheses involving memory effects related to soil water and vegetation, particularly in boreal spring and autumn have also been made. Prospective analysis from model output suggests rainfall surplus around 2050 over the Eastern-central Sahel and relative deficit to the West. Phase 2 of AMMA (2010-2020) will focus more on aspects that have a high social impact in direct collaboration with meteorological services predictability, prediction scores, operational indicators, evaluation of the part of anthropogenic forcing in the current and future variations. (authors)

Tropical Peatland Geomorphology and Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Cobb, A.; Harvey, C. F.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands cover many low-lying areas in the tropics. In tropical peatlands, a feedback between hydrology, landscape morphology, and carbon storage causes waterlogged organic matter to accumulate into gently mounded land forms called peat domes over thousands of years. Peat domes have a stable morphology in which peat production is balanced by loss and net precipitation is balanced by lateral flow, creating a link between peatland morphology, rainfall patterns and drainage networks. We show how landscape morphology can be used to make inferences about hydrologic processes in tropical peatlands. In particular, we show that approaches using simple storage-discharge relationships for catchments are especially well suited to tropical peatlands, allowing river forecasting based on peatland morphology in catchments with tropical peatland subcatchments.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall over the South-West Coast of Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Md. Sarwar Hossain

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This study examined the spatial and temporal rainfall variability from the 1940s to 2007 in the south west coastal region of Bangladesh. Time series statistical tests were applied to examine the spatial and temporal trends in three time segments (1948–1970, 1971–1990 and 1991–2007 and four seasons (Pre-monsoon; Monsoon; Post-Monsoon and Winter, during the period 1948–2007. Eight weather stations were divided into two zones: exposed (exposed to sea and interior (distant to sea. Overall, rainfall increased during the period 1948–2007, while the trends intensified during post-1990s. Post-monsoon and winter rainfall was observed to follow significant positive trends at most weather stations during the time period 1948–2007. The rate of change was found in exposed zone and interior zone are +12.51 and +4.86 mm/year, respectively, over post monsoon and +0.9 and +1.86 mm/year, respectively, over winter. These trends intensified both in the exposed zone (+45.81 mm/year and the interior zone (+27.09 mm/year 1990 onwards. Winter rainfall does not exhibit significant change (p > 0.1 over the exterior or interior zone, though individual stations like Jessore, Satkhira and Bhola show significant negative trends after 1990s. Although the trends were observed to weaken in the monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons, they are not significant. Moreover, an 11-year cyclicity was found within these two seasons, whilst no cyclicity was observed in the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Sequential Mann Kendal test reveals that the changes in two zones rainfall trends are started around mid-80s, where step change found only for fours season in Khulna stations and also for winter seasons in all weather stations. These changes may have a detrimental effect on rain-fed agriculture in Bangladesh. The application of palaeo-environmental techniques, threshold determination and rainfall analysis across the whole country could be useful to support adaptation planning of

Rainfall variability and household coping strategies in northern Tanzania: a motivation for district-level strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Mertz, Ole

2011-01-01

Climate variability is an important stress factor for rural livelihoods in most developing countries where households have been adapting to environmental shocks for decades. Climate change results in increased variability and poses new challenges for rural livelihoods, as well as for policymakers...... in adjusting policies to changing conditions. This paper examines the potential relationships between rainfall data and household self-reported harvest shocks and local (spatial) variability of harvest shocks and coping strategies based on a survey of 2,700 rural households in the Kagera region of northern...

Dry/Wet Conditions Monitoring Based on TRMM Rainfall Data and Its Reliability Validation over Poyang Lake Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianghu Li

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Local dry/wet conditions are of great concern in regional water resource and floods/droughts disaster risk management. Satellite-based precipitation products have greatly improved their accuracy and applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground rain gauges data. This paper investigated the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM rainfall data for monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin during 1998–2010, and validated its reliability with rain gauges data from 14 national meteorological stations in the basin. The results show that: (1 the daily TRMM rainfall data does not describe the occurrence and contribution rates of precipitation accurately, but monthly TRMM data have a good linear relationship with rain gauges rainfall data; (2 both the Z index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI based on monthly TRMM rainfall data oscillate around zero and show a consistent interannual variability as compared with rain gauges data; (3 the spatial pattern of moisture status, either in dry months or wet months, based on both the Z index and SPI using TRMM data, agree with the observed rainfall. In conclusion, the monthly TRMM rainfall data can be used for monitoring the variation and spatial distribution of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin.

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

2014-01-01

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Jin-Yi; Kim, Seon Tae; Lu, Mong-Ming

2012-01-01

A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990. (letter)

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Science.gov (United States)

Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

2018-03-01

Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15-30 km) recorded during the period January 1998-December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0-10° S), tropical (10-20° S) and subtropical (20-30° S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ˜ 26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is

Analytical solutions to sampling effects in drop size distribution measurements during stationary rainfall: Estimation of bulk rainfall variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Uijlenhoet, R.; Porrà, J.M.; Sempere Torres, D.; Creutin, J.D.

2006-01-01

A stochastic model of the microstructure of rainfall is used to derive explicit expressions for the magnitude of the sampling fluctuations in rainfall properties estimated from raindrop size measurements in stationary rainfall. The model is a marked point process, in which the points represent the

The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

2017-12-01

The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

Engineering of an Extreme Rainfall Detection System using Grid Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivier Terzo

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This paper describes a new approach for intensive rainfall data analysis. ITHACA's Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS is conceived to provide near real-time alerts related to potential exceptional rainfalls worldwide, which can be used by WFP or other humanitarian assistance organizations to evaluate the event and understand the potentially floodable areas where their assistance is needed. This system is based on precipitation analysis and it uses rainfall data from satellite at worldwide extent. This project uses the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis dataset, a NASA-delivered near real-time product for current rainfall condition monitoring over the world. Considering the great deal of data to process, this paper presents an architectural solution based on Grid Computing techniques. Our focus is on the advantages of using a distributed architecture in terms of performances for this specific purpose.

Using naive Bayes classifier for classification of convective rainfall ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

the rainfall intensity in the convective clouds is evaluated using weather radar over the northern Algeria. The results indicate an ... tropical and extratropical regions, are dominated .... MSG is a new series of European geostationary satellites ...

Impact of rainfall interception on hydrologic partitioning and soil erosion in natural and managed seasonally dry ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, A. E.; Montenegro, S. M.; Silva, B. B.; Bartlett, M. S.; Porporato, A. M.; Antonino, A. C.

2013-12-01

Quantifying the effects of land use change and rainfall variability in seasonal, dry ecosystems is crucial to sustainable management of soil and water resources. In particular, changes in rainfall interception effects on hydrologic partitioning and soil erosion due to land use change are among the least known processes, despite their importance for water resource managements, in terms of water availability for ecosystem and society and water quality and erosion problems. In this work we quantify the interception losses in different types of vegetation (coffee, lemon and vegetation of natural forest) found in the Tapacurá basin in the Pernambuco state of NE Brazil, coupling field experiments and analytical models. The interception losses were measured with rain gauges installed in three types of vegetation along with stemflow collectors. Close to the coffee plantation, a meteorological station was also installed for measurement of the necessary variables for the model calibrations. As expected, the results show that rainfall events of smaller magnitude proportionally have larger relative interception losses, with larger differences in the wet season. The model results also allow us to quantify the nonlinear behavior of the interception process, at the same time providing a valuable tool to estimate the interception loss due to changes in vegetation and rainfall regime and thus to improve water resource management in seasonally dry tropics .

Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

2017-12-01

The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on

A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

Science.gov (United States)

Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

2017-11-01

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

Relationships between southeastern Australian rainfall and sea surface temperatures examined using a climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Watterson, I. G.

2010-05-01

Rainfall in southeastern Australia has declined in recent years, particularly during austral autumn over the state of Victoria. A recent study suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) variations in both the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region and in a meridional dipole in the central Indian Ocean have influenced Victorian late autumn rainfall since 1950. However, it remains unclear to what extent SSTs in these and other regions force such a teleconnection. Analysis of a 1080 year simulation by the climate model CSIRO Mk3.5 shows that the model Victorian rainfall is correlated rather realistically with SSTs but that part of the above relationships is due to the model ENSO. Furthermore, the remote patterns of pressure, rainfall, and land temperature greatly diminish when the data are lagged by 1 month, suggesting that the true forcing by the persisting SSTs is weak. In a series of simulations of the atmospheric Mk3.5 with idealized SST anomalies, raised SSTs to the east of Indonesia lower the simulated Australian rainfall, while those to the west raise it. A positive ITF anomaly lowers pressure over Australia, but with little effect on Victorian rainfall. The meridional dipole and SSTs to the west and southeast of Australia have little direct effect on southeastern Australia in the model. The results suggest that tropical SSTs predominate as an influence on Victorian rainfall. However, the SST indices appear to explain only a fraction of the observed trend, which in the case of decadal means remains within the range of unforced variability simulated by Mk3.5.

Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

2018-04-01

Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

Rainfall Variability and its Implications for the Transferability of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mosrof agrj~ultural qctivities in semi-arid areqs of Tanzania ,d~pend on direct rainfall: Conse-, quently, any significant variation in /he temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall usually results in serious shortage of sQil~water available to plants and thus poor crop and livestock production. In this paper the variafJility and ...

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Toihir

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene, using total column ozone data (TCO and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15–30 km recorded during the period January 1998–December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, ENSO, 11-year solar cycle that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0–10° S, tropical (10–20° S and subtropical (20–30° S. Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java. The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at  ∼ 26�

Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

Science.gov (United States)

Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.

2018-02-01

The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the

The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

2015-11-01

We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yen Yi Loo

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

Exploratory Long-Range Models to Estimate Summer Climate Variability over Southern Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Jury, Mark R.; Mulenga, Henry M.; Mason, Simon J.

1999-07-01

Teleconnection predictors are explored using multivariate regression models in an effort to estimate southern African summer rainfall and climate impacts one season in advance. The preliminary statistical formulations include many variables influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) such as tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Atmospheric circulation responses to ENSO include the alternation of tropical zonal winds over Africa and changes in convective activity within oceanic monsoon troughs. Numerous hemispheric-scale datasets are employed to extract predictors and include global indexes (Southern Oscillation index and quasi-biennial oscillation), SST principal component scores for the global oceans, indexes of tropical convection (outgoing longwave radiation), air pressure, and surface and upper winds over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Climatic targets include subseasonal, area-averaged rainfall over South Africa and the Zambezi river basin, and South Africa's annual maize yield. Predictors and targets overlap in the years 1971-93, the defined training period. Each target time series is fitted by an optimum group of predictors from the preceding spring, in a linear multivariate formulation. To limit artificial skill, predictors are restricted to three, providing 17 degrees of freedom. Models with colinear predictors are screened out, and persistence of the target time series is considered. The late summer rainfall models achieve a mean r2 fit of 72%, contributed largely through ENSO modulation. Early summer rainfall cross validation correlations are lower (61%). A conceptual understanding of the climate dynamics and ocean-atmosphere coupling processes inherent in the exploratory models is outlined.Seasonal outlooks based on the exploratory models could help mitigate the impacts of southern Africa's fluctuating climate. It is believed that an advance warning of drought risk and seasonal rainfall prospects will

Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, CJ

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different...

Critical Phenomena of Rainfall in Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Serrano, Sh.; Vasquez, N.; Jacome, P.; Basile, L.

2014-02-01

Self-organized criticality (SOC) is characterized by a power law behavior over complex systems like earthquakes and avalanches. We study rainfall using data of one day, 3 hours and 10 min temporal resolution from INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia) station at Izobamba, DMQ (Metropolitan District of Quito), satellite data over Ecuador from Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission (TRMM,) and REMMAQ (Red Metropolitana de Monitoreo Atmosferico de Quito) meteorological stations over, respectively. Our results show a power law behavior of the number of rain events versus mm of rainfall measured for the high resolution case (10 min), and as the resolution decreases this behavior gets lost. This statistical property is the fingerprint of a self-organized critical process (Peter and Christensen, 2002) and may serve as a benchmark for models of precipitation based in phase transitions between water vapor and precipitation (Peter and Neeling, 2006).

Seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall using a multi-model ensemble system

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Lee, Doo-Young; Yoo, Jin‑Ho

2015-04-01

Using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers, the prediction skills of climate models in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP Indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index or each MPI. Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by hybrid dynamical-statistical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach compared to the dynamical forecast alone. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research

Effects of climate change on agriculture particularly in semi-arid tropics of the world with some examples of Ethiopian condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demessie, Almaz

2004-01-01

Today climate change is a burning issue all over the world because of its global nature. Fears have arisen that, climate may be changing for the worse and its impact may be felt on agricultural production, which will reduce the supply of food to growing population, especially in developing countries. Climate change would affect various human activities. Agriculture is one of the activities, which can be seriously affected by climate change. Due to high inter-annual variability and uneven distribution of rainfall during the rainy season, recurrent droughts have been observed in semi-arid tropics of the world over the last three decades. As White (1996) pointed out rain fed agriculture in the semi-arid tropics is limited mostly by high climatic variability with principal limiting factor being rainfall. The main crops of traditional rain fed agriculture are sorghum, millet, maize, cowpea, pulses and sesame. There is a suggestion that increased CO 2 will benefit temperate and humid tropical agriculture more than that in the semi-arid tropics. During the process of photosynthesis plant species with the C 3 photosynthetic pathway tend to respond positively to increased CO 2 while the C 4 have a poor response. Since C 4 plants are mostly tropical crops, the situation will be worst over the areas (Parry, 1990). Climate change will alter the nature of occurrence of agricultural pests in terms of area. Warmer temperatures shorten the generation time; increase the development rate of epidemic. For example, assessment of the effect of global warming on the distribution of livestock disease suggests that pests at present limited to tropical countries may spread into other parts of the world, which have different climatic condition (ibid).(Author)

Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastava, Ankur; Pradhan, Maheswar; Goswami, B. N.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

2017-11-01

The high propensity of deficient monsoon rainfall over the Indian sub-continent in the recent 3 decades (seven deficient monsoons against 3 excess monsoon years) compared to the prior 3 decades has serious implications on the food and water resources in the country. Motivated by the need to understand the high occurrence of deficient monsoon during this period, we examine the change in predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its teleconnections with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures between the two periods. The shift in the tropical climate in the late 1970s appears to be one of the major reasons behind this. We find an increased predictability of the ISM in the recent 3 decades owing to reduced `internal' interannual variability (IAV) due to the high-frequency modes, while the `external' IAV arising from the low-frequency modes has remained largely the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole-ISM teleconnection has become positive during the monsoon season in the recent period thereby compensating for the weakened ENSO-ISM teleconnection. The central Pacific El-Niño and the Indian Ocean (IO) warming during the recent 3 decades are working together to realise enhanced ascending motion in the equatorial IO between 70°E and 100°E, preconditioning the Indian monsoon system prone to a deficient state.

Remote sensing-based characterization of rainfall during atmospheric rivers over the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Nayak, Munir A.; Villarini, Gabriele

2018-01-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a central role in the hydrology and hydroclimatology of the central United States. More than 25% of the annual rainfall is associated with ARs over much of this region, with many large flood events tied to their occurrence. Despite the relevance of these storms for flood hydrology and water budget, the characteristics of rainfall associated with ARs over the central United has not been investigated thus far. This study fills this major scientific gap by describing the rainfall during ARs over the central United States using five remote sensing-based precipitation products over a 12-year study period. The products we consider are: Stage IV, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH). As part of the study, we evaluate these products against a rain gauge-based dataset using both graphical- and metrics-based diagnostics. Based on our analyses, Stage IV is found to better reproduce the reference data. Hence, we use it for the characterization of rainfall in ARs. Most of the AR-rainfall is located in a narrow region within ∼150 km on both sides of the AR major axis. In this region, rainfall has a pronounced positive relationship with the magnitude of the water vapor transport. Moreover, we have also identified a consistent increase in rainfall intensity with duration (or persistence) of AR conditions. However, there is not a strong indication of diurnal variability in AR rainfall. These results can be directly used in developing flood protection strategies during ARs. Further, weather prediction agencies can benefit from the results of this study to achieve higher skill of resolving precipitation processes in their models.

Nondestructive examination of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) reaction control subsystem (RCS) propellant tanks

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Free, James M.

1993-01-01

This paper assesses the feasibility of using eddy current nondestructive examination to determine flaw sizes in completely assembled hydrazine propellant tanks. The study was performed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) project to help determine whether existing propellant tanks could meet the fracture analysis requirements of the current pressure vessel specification, MIL-STD-1522A and, therefore be used on the TRMM spacecraft. After evaluating several nondestructive test methods, eddy current testing was selected as the most promising method for determining flaw sizes on external and internal surfaces of completely assembled tanks. Tests were conducted to confirm the detection capability of the eddy current NDE, procedures were developed to inspect two candidate tanks, and the test support equipment was designed. The non-spherical tank eddy current NDE test program was terminated when the decision was made to procure new tanks for the TRMM propulsion subsystem. The information on the development phase of this test program is presented in this paper as a reference for future investigation on the subject.

Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

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Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

2017-04-01

In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

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Allison, L. J.; Steranka, J.; Holub, R. J.; Hansen, J.; Godshall, F. A.; Prabhakara, C.

1972-01-01

Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability On Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Y.; Wang, C.; Wang, S.; Tibig, Lourdes V.

2005-01-01

Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover

Rainfall prediction with backpropagation method

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Wahyuni, E. G.; Fauzan, L. M. F.; Abriyani, F.; Muchlis, N. F.; Ulfa, M.

2018-03-01

Rainfall is an important factor in many fields, such as aviation and agriculture. Although it has been assisted by technology but the accuracy can not reach 100% and there is still the possibility of error. Though current rainfall prediction information is needed in various fields, such as agriculture and aviation fields. In the field of agriculture, to obtain abundant and quality yields, farmers are very dependent on weather conditions, especially rainfall. Rainfall is one of the factors that affect the safety of aircraft. To overcome the problems above, then it’s required a system that can accurately predict rainfall. In predicting rainfall, artificial neural network modeling is applied in this research. The method used in modeling this artificial neural network is backpropagation method. Backpropagation methods can result in better performance in repetitive exercises. This means that the weight of the ANN interconnection can approach the weight it should be. Another advantage of this method is the ability in the learning process adaptively and multilayer owned on this method there is a process of weight changes so as to minimize error (fault tolerance). Therefore, this method can guarantee good system resilience and consistently work well. The network is designed using 4 input variables, namely air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration and 3 output variables ie low rainfall, medium rainfall, and high rainfall. Based on the research that has been done, the network can be used properly, as evidenced by the results of the prediction of the system precipitation is the same as the results of manual calculations.

South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes

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Prasanna, V.

2016-06-01

The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901-2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(-) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951-2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.

Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

KAUST Repository

Parkes, Stephen

2015-04-01

The response of the tropical hydrological cycle to anthropogenically induced changes in radiative forcing is one of the largest discrepancies between climate models. Paleoclimate archives of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the tropics indicate a relationship with precipitation amount that could be exploited to study past hydroclimate and improve our knowledge of how this region responds to changes in climate forcing. Recently modelling studies of convective parameterizations fitted with water isotopes and remote sensing of water vapor isotopes in the tropics have illustrated uncertainty in the assumed relationship with rainfall amount. Therefore there is a need to collect water isotope data in the tropics that can be used to evaluate these models and help identify the relationships between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and rainfall intensity. However, data in this region is almost non-existent. Here we present in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements and the HDO retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key climate cycles including ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillations. The analysis of the data illustrated relationships between water vapor isotopes and humidity which demonstrated the role of precipitation processes in the wet season and air mass mixing during the dry season. Further the wet season observations show complex relationships between humidity and isotopes. A simple Rayleigh distillation model was not obeyed, instead the importance of rainfall re-evaporation in generating the highly depleted signatures was demonstrated. These data potentially provide a useful tool for evaluating model parameterizations in monsoonal regions as they demonstrate relationships with precipitation processes that cannot be observed with

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

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Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

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Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Tropical forest soil microbial communities couple iron and carbon biogeochemistry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dubinsky, E.A.; Silver, W.L.; Firestone, M.K.

2009-10-15

We report that iron-reducing bacteria are primary mediators of anaerobic carbon oxidation in upland tropical soils spanning a rainfall gradient (3500 - 5000 mm yr-1) in northeast Puerto Rico. The abundant rainfall and high net primary productivity of these tropical forests provide optimal soil habitat for iron-reducing and iron-oxidizing bacteria. Spatially and temporally dynamic redox conditions make iron-transforming microbial communities central to the belowground carbon cycle in these wet tropical forests. The exceedingly high abundance of iron-reducing bacteria (up to 1.2 x 10{sup 9} cells per gram soil) indicated that they possess extensive metabolic capacity to catalyze the reduction of iron minerals. In soils from the higher rainfall sites, measured rates of ferric iron reduction could account for up to 44 % of organic carbon oxidation. Iron reducers appeared to compete with methanogens when labile carbon availability was limited. We found large numbers of bacteria that oxidize reduced iron at sites with high rates of iron reduction and large numbers of iron-reducers. the coexistence of large populations of ironreducing and iron-oxidizing bacteria is evidence for rapid iron cycling between its reduced and oxidized states, and suggests that mutualistic interactions among these bacteria ultimately fuel organic carbon oxidation and inhibit CH4 production in these upland tropical forests.

Influence of the balance of the intertropical front on seasonal variations of the isotopic composition in rainfall at Kisiba Masoko (Rungwe Volcanic Province, SW, Tanzania).

Science.gov (United States)

Nivet, Fantine; Bergonzini, Laurent; Mathé, Pierre-Etienne; Noret, Aurélie; Monvoisin, Gaël; Majule, Amos; Williamson, David

2018-08-01

Tropical rainfall isotopic composition results from complex processes. The climatological and environmental variability in East Africa increases this complexity. Long rainfall isotope datasets are needed to fill the lack of observations in this region. At Kisiba Masoko, Tanzania, rainfall and rain isotopic composition have been monitored during 6 years. Mean year profiles allow to analyse the seasonal variations. The mean annual rainfall is 2099 mm with a rain-weighted mean composition of -3.2 ‰ for δ 18 O and -11.7 ‰ for δ 2 H. The results are consistent with available data although they present their own specificity. Thus, if the local meteoric water line is δ 2 H = 8.6 δ 18 O + 14.8, two seasonal lines are observed. The seasonality of the isotopic composition in rain and deuterium excess has been compared with precipitating air masses backtracking trajectories to characterize a simple scheme of vapour histories. The three major oceanic sources have two moisture signatures with their own trajectory histories: one originated from the tropical Indian Ocean at the beginning of the rainy season and one from the Austral Ocean at its end. The presented isotopic seasonality depends on the balance of the intertropical front and provides a useful dataset to improve the knowledge about local processes.

Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing

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Marta Martín-Rey

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Previous studies have reported that the tropical Atlantic has had an influence on tropical Pacific interannual variability since the 1970s. This variability is studied in the present work, using simulations from a coupled model in the Indo-Pacific but with observed sea surface temperature (SST prescribed over the Atlantic. The interannual variability is compared with that from a control simulation in which climatological SSTs are prescribed over the Atlantic. Differences in the Pacific mean state and in its variability are found in the forced simulation as a response to a warming in the equatorial Atlantic, characterized by a cooler background state and an increase in the variability over the tropical Pacific. A striking result is that the principal modes of tropical Pacific SST interannual variability show significant differences before and after the 1970s, providing new evidence of the Atlantic influence on the Pacific Ocean. Significant cooling (warming in the equatorial Atlantic could have caused anomalous winds in the central-easter Pacific during the summer since 1970s. The thermocline depth also seems to be altered, triggering the dynamical processes involved in the development of El Niño (La Niña phenomenon in the following winter. An increase in frequency of Niño and Niña events favouring the Central Pacific (CP ones is observed in the last three decades. Further analyses using coupled models are still necessary to help us to understand the causes of this inter-basin connection.

Trends and variation in monthly rainfall and temperature in Suriname

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raid, Nurmohamed

2004-01-01

As Surinam lies within the equatorial trough zone, climate is mainly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Scientist predict that global climate change will directly effect the hydrological cycle such as rainfall and temperature, and extreme events such as a El Nino and La Nina. The aim of this study is to analyze historical changes in monthly rainfall and temperature and to predict future changes, with respect to climate change (doubling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by 2100) and variability. Linear extrapolation and five Global Circulations Models (GCMS) (HadCM2, ECHAM4, GFDL-TR, CSIRO2-EQ, CCSR-NIES) will be used. Results of GCMs have showed that under global climate change by 2100, the monthly rainfall is predicted to change with -82 to 66 mm during January and August, and -36 to 47 mm during September and November. The monthly temperature is predicted to increase with 1.3 to 4.3 C by 2100. El Nino events have showed that along the coastal zone and in the center of Surinam, most months (>50%) during the year are drier than normal (88 to 316 mm), while in the west part of Surinam, most months (>50%) are wetter than normal (110 to 220 mm). La Nina events have showed that over entire Surinam, most of the months are wetter than normal (19 to 122 mm), with respect to the minimum rainfall. It can be concluded that the changes in rainfall due to El Nino and La Nina events may have significant impacts on the design, planning and management of water resources systems in Surinam and should therefore be incorporated in future water resources planning. (Author)

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

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Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Rainfall variability and drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones: An assessment of climate change challenges in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Ayanlade, Ayansina; Radeny, Maren; Morton, John F; Muchaba, Tabitha

2018-07-15

This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days 0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chronic human disturbance affects plant trait distribution in a seasonally dry tropical forest

Science.gov (United States)

Sfair, Julia C.; de Bello, Francesco; de França, Thaysa Q.; Baldauf, Cristina; Tabarelli, Marcelo

2018-02-01

The effects of human disturbance on biodiversity can be mediated by environmental conditions, such as water availability, climate and nutrients. In general, disturbed, dry or nutrient-depleted soils areas tend to have lower taxonomic diversity. However, little is known about how these environmental conditions affect functional composition and intraspecific variability in tropical dry forests. We studied a seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) under chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD) along rainfall and soil nutrient gradients to understand how these factors influence the taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically we evaluated two aspects of CAD, wood extraction and livestock pressure (goat and cattle grazing), along soil fertility and rainfall gradients on shrub and tree traits, considering species turnover and intraspecific variability. In addition, we also tested how the traits of eight populations of the most frequent species are affected by wood extraction, livestock pressure, rainfall and soil fertility. In general, although CAD and environmental gradients affected each trait of the most widespread species differently, the most abundant species also had a greater variation of traits. Considering species turnover, wood extraction is associated with species with a smaller leaf area and lower investment in leaf mass, probably due to the indirect effects of this disturbance type on the vegetation, i.e. the removal of branches and woody debris clears the vegetation, favouring species that minimize water loss. Livestock pressure, on the other hand, affected intraspecific variation: the herbivory caused by goats and cattle promoted individuals which invest more in wood density and leaf mass. In this case, the change of functional composition observed is a direct effect of the disturbance, such as the decrease of palatable plant abundance by goat and cattle herbivory. In synthesis, CAD, rainfall and soil fertility can affect trait distribution at community

Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

2017-01-01

Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain?

Science.gov (United States)

Fraedrich, Klaus

2015-04-01

Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

Science.gov (United States)

Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

2017-04-01

We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Simulated Summer Rainfall Variability Effects on Loblolly Pine (Pinus taeda Seedling Physiology and Susceptibility to Root-Infecting Ophiostomatoid Fungi

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Jeff Chieppa

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Seedlings from four families of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L. were grown in capped open-top chambers and exposed to three different weekly moisture regimes for 13 weeks. Moisture regimes varied in intensity and frequency of simulated rainfall (irrigation events; however, the total amounts were comparable. These simulated treatments were chosen to simulate expected changes in rainfall variability associated with climate change. Seedlings were inoculated with two root-infecting ophiostomatoid fungi associated with Southern Pine Decline. We found susceptibility of loblolly pine was not affected by water stress; however, one family that was most sensitive to inoculation was also most sensitive to changes in moisture availability. Many studies have examined the effects of drought (well-watered vs. dry conditions on pine physiology and host-pathogen interactions but little is known about variability in moisture supply. This study aimed to elucidate the effects of variability in water availability, pathogen inoculation and their interaction on physiology of loblolly pine seedlings.

Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

2018-01-01

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

Identifying and Analyzing Uncertainty Structures in the TRMM Microwave Imager Precipitation Product over Tropical Ocean Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jianbo; Kummerow, Christian D.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Despite continuous improvements in microwave sensors and retrieval algorithms, our understanding of precipitation uncertainty is quite limited, due primarily to inconsistent findings in studies that compare satellite estimates to in situ observations over different parts of the world. This study seeks to characterize the temporal and spatial properties of uncertainty in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager surface rainfall product over tropical ocean basins. Two uncertainty analysis frameworks are introduced to qualitatively evaluate the properties of uncertainty under a hierarchy of spatiotemporal data resolutions. The first framework (i.e. 'climate method') demonstrates that, apart from random errors and regionally dependent biases, a large component of the overall precipitation uncertainty is manifested in cyclical patterns that are closely related to large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. By estimating the magnitudes of major uncertainty sources independently, the climate method is able to explain 45-88% of the monthly uncertainty variability. The percentage is largely resolution dependent (with the lowest percentage explained associated with a 1 deg x 1 deg spatial/1 month temporal resolution, and highest associated with a 3 deg x 3 deg spatial/3 month temporal resolution). The second framework (i.e. 'weather method') explains regional mean precipitation uncertainty as a summation of uncertainties associated with individual precipitation systems. By further assuming that self-similar recurring precipitation systems yield qualitatively comparable precipitation uncertainties, the weather method can consistently resolve about 50 % of the daily uncertainty variability, with only limited dependence on the regions of interest.

The Impact of Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming; Surratt, Jason; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, deep convective cloudiness, as well as rainfall occurrence, all increase over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions. This is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift toward afternoon hours in the deforested and savanna regions, compared to the forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that only in August did rainfall amounts increase over the deforested region.

Variability modeling of rainfall, deforestation, and incidence of american tegumentary leishmaniasis in orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosales, Juan Carlos; Yang, Hyun Mo; Avila Blas, Orlando José

2014-01-01

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time variable rainfall thresholds

Science.gov (United States)

Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

2014-10-01

We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b), makes use of LAMI rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain-gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult and it provides different outputs. Switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a very straightforward view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain-gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the high spatial variability of the physical features, which affects the relationship between rainfall and landslides, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of 332 rain gauges, it allows monitoring each alert zone separately and warnings can be issued independently from an alert zone to another. An important feature of the warning system is the use of thresholds that may vary in time adapting at the conditions of the rainfall path recorded by the rain-gauges. Depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set, the comparison with the threshold may produce different outcomes. Therefore, a recursive algorithm was developed to check and compare with the thresholds all possible starting times, highlighting the worst scenario and showing in the WebGIS interface at what time and how much the rainfall path has exceeded or will exceed the most critical threshold. Besides forecasting and monitoring the hazard scenario

Adjust of the residuals of the Arima model by means of the analysis of the residuals of the explanatory variables by means of the analysis of main components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Montealegre Bocanegra, Jose Edgar

2000-01-01

Based on the previous knowledge and understanding of the causality relationships between the fields of surface temperature of the Pacific and North and South tropical Atlantic oceans and rainfall behaviour in Colombia, we purport to model those relations with a (statistical) transfer model. This work is aimed at improving the adjustment of the model for the monthly mean rainfall registered in Funza (nearby the Capital Bogota). The residues of ARIMA models with six explanatory variables may contribute some percentage to the explanation of the total variability of rainfall as a consequence of their interrelationship. Such effect can be represented as a summary of the six variables, which can be achieved with principal components, taking into account that they are not mutually dependent, since they are white noise time series

RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Celso A. G. Santos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

Challenge and opportunities of space-based precipitation radar for spatio-temporal hydrology analysis in tropical maritime influenced catchment: Case study on the hilly tropical watershed of Peninsular Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmud, M R; Numata, S; Matsuyama, H; Hashim, M; Hosaka, T

2014-01-01

This paper highlights two critical issues regarding hilly watershed in Peninsular Malaysia; (1) current status of spatio-temporal condition of rain gauge based measurement, and (2) potential of space-based precipitation radar to study the rainfall dynamics. Two analyses were carried out represent each issue consecutively. First, the spatial distribution and efficiency of rain gauge in hilly watershed Peninsular Malaysia is evaluated with respect to the land use and elevation information using Geographical Information System (GIS) approach. Second, the spatial pattern of rainfall changes is analysed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite information. The spatial analysis revealed that the rain gauge distribution had sparse coverage on hilly watershed and possessed inadequate efficiency for effective spatial based assessment. Significant monthly rainfall changes identified by TRMM satellite on the upper part of the watershed had occurred occasionally in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2006, and 2009 went undetected by conventional rain gauge. This study informed the potential and opportunities of space-based precipitation radar to fill the gaps of knowledge on spatio-temporal rainfall patterns for hydrology and related fields in tropical region

Modes of winter precipitation variability in the North Atlantic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zorita, E. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Saenz, J.; Fernandez, J.; Zubillaga, J. [Bilbao Univ. (Spain)

2001-07-01

The modes of variability of winter precipitation in the North Atlantic sector are identified by Empirical Orthogonal Functions Analysis in the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data sets. These modes are also present in a gridded precipitation data set over the Western Europe. The large-scale fields of atmospheric seasonal mean circulation, baroclinic activity, evaporation and humidity transport that are connected to the rainfall modes have been also analyzed in order to investigate the physical mechanisms that are causally linked to the rainfall modes. The results indicate that the leading rainfall mode is associated to the North Atlantic oscillation and represents a meridional redistribution of precipitation in the North Atlantic through displacements of the storm tracks. The second mode is related to evaporation anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic that precipitate almost entirely in the Western Atlantic. The third mode seems to be associated to meridional transport of water vapor from the Tropical Atlantic. (orig.)

Temporal characteristics of rainfall events under three climate types in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Dolšak, Domen; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

2016-10-01

Temporal rainfall distribution can often have significant influence on other hydrological processes such as runoff generation or rainfall interception. High-frequency rainfall data from 30 stations in Slovenia were analysed in order to improve the knowledge about the temporal rainfall distribution within a rainfall event. Using the pre-processed rainfall data Huff curves were determined and the binary shape code (BSC) methodology was applied. Although Slovenia covers only about 20,000 km2, results indicate large temporal and spatial variability in the precipitation pattern of the analysed stations, which is in agreement with the different Slovenian climate types: sub-Mediterranean, temperate continental, and mountain climate. Statistically significant correlation was identified between the most frequent BSC types, mean annual precipitation, and rainfall erosivity for individual rainfall stations. Moreover, different temporal rainfall distributions were observed for rainfall events with shorter duration (less than 12 h) than those with longer duration (more than 24 h). Using the analysis of the Huff curves it was shown that the variability in the Huff curves decreases with increasing rainfall duration. Thus, it seems that for shorter duration convective storms a more diverse temporal rainfall distribution can be expected than for the longer duration frontal precipitation where temporal rainfall distribution shows less variability.

Comprehensive overview of FPL field testing conducted in the tropics (1945-2005)

Science.gov (United States)

Grant T. Kirker; Stan L. Lebow; Mark E. Mankowski

2016-01-01

Tropical exposure often represents a more severe environment for treated wood and wood based products. Accelerated tropical decay rates are typically attributed to higher mean rainfall and temperatures. The Forest Products Laboratory (FPL) in Madison, WI has been conducting tropical field tests in a variety of locations since the early 1940’s. This paper summarizes FPL...

Extension of the TAMSAT satellite-based rainfall monitoring over Africa and from 1983 to present

OpenAIRE

Tarnavsky, Elena; Grimes, David; Maidment, Ross; Black, Emily; Allan, Richard; Stringer, Marc; Chadwick, Robin; Kayitakire, Francois

2014-01-01

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite Data and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall monitoring products have been extended to provide spatially contiguous rainfall estimates across Africa. This has been achieved through a new, climatology-based calibration, which varies in both space and time. As a result, cumulative estimates of rainfall are now issued at the end of each 10-day period (dekad) at 4-km spatial resolution with pan-African coverage. The utility of the produ...

A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Michael N.; Schrag, Daniel P.

2004-08-01

We describe a strategy for development of chronological control in tropical trees lacking demonstrably annual ring formation, using high resolution δ 18O measurements in tropical wood. The approach applies existing models of the oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brenna et al., 1998) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees lacking visible annual ring structure. Consistent with model predictions, pilot datasets from the temperate US and Costa Rica having independent chronological control suggest that observed cyclic isotopic signatures of several permil (SMOW) represent the annual cycle of local rainfall and relative humidity. Additional data from a plantation tree of known age from ENSO-sensitive northwestern coastal Peru suggests that the 1997-8 ENSO warm phase event was recorded as an 8‰ anomaly in the δ 18O of α-cellulose. The results demonstrate reproducibility of the stable isotopic chronometer over decades, two different climatic zones, and three tropical tree genera, and point to future applications in paleoclimatology.

Drought tolerance of tropical tree species : functional traits, trade-offs and species distribution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Markesteijn, L.

2010-01-01

KEY-WORDS:
Bolivia, drought tolerance, shade tolerance, functional traits, trade-offs, ecophysiology, species distribution
Tropical forests occur under rainfall regimes that vary greatly in the rainfall pattern and frequency and intensity of drought. Consequently water availability is

Forced response of the East Asian summer rainfall over the past millennium: results from a coupled model simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Jian; Wang, Hongli; Ti, Ruyuan [Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing (China); Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, Honolulu, HI (United States); Kuang, Xueyuan [Nanjing University, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing (China)

2011-01-15

The centennial-millennial variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation over the past 1000 years was investigated through the analysis of a millennium simulation of the coupled ECHO-G model. The model results indicate that the centennial-millennial variation of the EASM is essentially a forced response to the external radiative forcing (insolation, volcanic aerosol, and green house gases). The strength of the response depends on latitude; and the spatial structure of the centennial-millennial variation differs from the interannual variability that arises primarily from the internal feedback processes within the climate system. On millennial time scale, the extratropical and subtropical precipitation was generally strong during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and weak during Little Ice Age (LIA). The tropical rainfall is insensitive to the effective solar radiation forcing (insolation plus radiative effect of volcanic aerosols) but significantly responds to the modern anthropogenic radiative forcing. On centennial time scale, the variation of the extratropical and subtropical rainfall also tends to follow the effective solar radiation forcing closely. The forced response features in-phase rainfall variability between the extratropics and subtropics, which is in contrast to the anti-correlation on the interannual time scale. Further, the behavior of the interannual-decadal variation in the extratropics is effectively modulated by change of the mean states on the millennial time scale, suggesting that the structure of the internal mode may vary with significant changes in the external forcing. These findings imply that on the millennial time scale, (a) the proxy data in the extratropical EA may more sensitively reflect the EASM rainfall variations, and (b) the Meiyu and the northern China rainfall provide a consistent measure for the EASM strength. (orig.)

The Significance of the Spatial Variability of Rainfall on the Numerical Simulation of Urban Floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent Guillaume Courty

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The growth of urban population, combined with an increase of extreme events due to climate change call for a better understanding and representation of urban floods. The uncertainty in rainfall distribution is one of the most important factors that affects the watershed response to a given precipitation event. However, most of the investigations on this topic have considered theoretical scenarios, with little reference to case studies in the real world. This paper incorporates the use of spatially-variable precipitation data from a long-range radar in the simulation of the severe floods that impacted the city of Hull, U.K., in June 2007. This radar-based rainfall field is merged with rain gauge data using a Kriging with External Drift interpolation technique. The utility of this spatially-variable information is investigated through the comparison of computed flooded areas (uniform and radar against those registered by public authorities. Both results show similar skills at reproducing the real event, but differences in the total precipitated volumes, water depths and flooded areas are illustrated. It is envisaged that in urban areas and with the advent of higher resolution radars, these differences will be more important and call for further investigation.

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

River catchment rainfall series analysis using additive Holt-Winters method

Science.gov (United States)

Puah, Yan Jun; Huang, Yuk Feng; Chua, Kuan Chin; Lee, Teang Shui

2016-03-01

Climate change is receiving more attention from researchers as the frequency of occurrence of severe natural disasters is getting higher. Tropical countries like Malaysia have no distinct four seasons; rainfall has become the popular parameter to assess climate change. Conventional ways that determine rainfall trends can only provide a general result in single direction for the whole study period. In this study, rainfall series were modelled using additive Holt-Winters method to examine the rainfall pattern in Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Nine homogeneous series of more than 25 years data and less than 10% missing data were selected. Goodness of fit of the forecasted models was measured. It was found that seasonal rainfall model forecasts are generally better than the monthly rainfall model forecasts. Three stations in the western region exhibited increasing trend. Rainfall in southern region showed fluctuation. Increasing trends were discovered at stations in the south-eastern region except the seasonal analysis at station 45253. Decreasing trend was found at station 2818110 in the east, while increasing trend was shown at station 44320 that represents the north-eastern region. The accuracies of both rainfall model forecasts were tested using the recorded data of years 2010-2012. Most of the forecasts are acceptable.

Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

2015-04-01

The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

Modelling rainfall amounts using mixed-gamma model for Kuantan district

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Moslim, Nor Hafizah

2017-05-01

An efficient design of flood mitigation and construction of crop growth models depend upon good understanding of the rainfall process and characteristics. Gamma distribution is usually used to model nonzero rainfall amounts. In this study, the mixed-gamma model is applied to accommodate both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts. The mixed-gamma model presented is for the independent case. The formulae of mean and variance are derived for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables, respectively. Firstly, the gamma distribution is used to model the nonzero rainfall amounts and the parameters of the distribution (shape and scale) are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Then, the mixed-gamma model is defined for both zero and nonzero rainfall amounts simultaneously. The formulae of mean and variance for the sum of two and three independent mixed-gamma variables derived are tested using the monthly rainfall amounts from rainfall stations within Kuantan district in Pahang Malaysia. Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test, the results demonstrate that the descriptive statistics of the observed sum of rainfall amounts is not significantly different at 5% significance level from the generated sum of independent mixed-gamma variables. The methodology and formulae demonstrated can be applied to find the sum of more than three independent mixed-gamma variables.

Regionalization of monthly rainfall erosivity patternsin Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos; Meusburger, Katrin

2016-10-01

One major controlling factor of water erosion is rainfall erosivity, which is quantified as the product of total storm energy and a maximum 30 min intensity (I30). Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). As rainfall erosivity is closely correlated with rainfall amount and intensity, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland can be expected to have a regional characteristic and seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This intra-annual variability was mapped by a monthly modeling approach to assess simultaneously spatial and monthly patterns of rainfall erosivity. So far only national seasonal means and regional annual means exist for Switzerland. We used a network of 87 precipitation gauging stations with a 10 min temporal resolution to calculate long-term monthly mean R-factors. Stepwise generalized linear regression (GLM) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) were used to select spatial covariates which explain the spatial and temporal patterns of the R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The monthly R-factor is mapped by summarizing the predicted R-factor of the regression equation and the corresponding residues of the regression, which are interpolated by ordinary kriging (regression-kriging). As spatial covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included such as snow depths, a combination product of hourly precipitation measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), daily Alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD), and monthly precipitation sums (RhiresM). Topographic parameters (elevation, slope) were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of the 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed a distinct seasonality with the highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) influenced by intense rainfall events. Winter months have the lowest rainfall erosivity. A proportion of 62 % of

Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

Science.gov (United States)

Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

2018-05-01

Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

Monthly Rainfall Erosivity Assessment for Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Simon; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine

2016-04-01

Water erosion is crucially controlled by rainfall erosivity, which is quantified out of the kinetic energy of raindrop impact and associated surface runoff. Rainfall erosivity is often expressed as the R-factor in soil erosion risk models like the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and its revised version (RUSLE). Just like precipitation, the rainfall erosivity of Switzerland has a characteristic seasonal dynamic throughout the year. This inter-annual variability is to be assessed by a monthly and seasonal modelling approach. We used a network of 86 precipitation gauging stations with a 10-minute temporal resolution to calculate long-term average monthly R-factors. Stepwise regression and Monte Carlo Cross Validation (MCCV) was used to select spatial covariates to explain the spatial pattern of R-factor for each month across Switzerland. The regionalized monthly R-factor is mapped by its individual regression equation and the ordinary kriging interpolation of its residuals (Regression-Kriging). As covariates, a variety of precipitation indicator data has been included like snow height, a combination of hourly gauging measurements and radar observations (CombiPrecip), mean monthly alpine precipitation (EURO4M-APGD) and monthly precipitation sums (Rhires). Topographic parameters were also significant explanatory variables for single months. The comparison of all 12 monthly rainfall erosivity maps showed seasonality with highest rainfall erosivity in summer (June, July, and August) and lowest rainfall erosivity in winter months. Besides the inter-annual temporal regime, a seasonal spatial variability was detectable. Spatial maps of monthly rainfall erosivity are presented for the first time for Switzerland. The assessment of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviour of the R-factor is valuable for the identification of more susceptible seasons and regions as well as for the application of selective erosion control measures. A combination with monthly vegetation

Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 V7 Rainfall Product over the Oum Er Rbia Watershed in Morocco

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamza Ouatiki

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In arid and semi-arid areas, rainfall is often characterized by a strong spatial and temporal variability. These environmental factors, combined with the sparsity of the measurement networks in developing countries, constitute real constraints for water resources management. In recent years, several spatial rainfall measurement sources have become available, such as TRMM data (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission. In this study, the TRMM 3B42 Version 7 product was evaluated using rain gauges measurements from 19 stations in the Oum-Er-Bia (OER basin located in the center of Morocco. The relevance of the TRMM product was tested by direct comparison with observations at different time scales (daily, monthly, and annual between 1998 and 2010. Results show that the satellite product provides poor estimations of rainfall at the daily time scale giving an average Pearson correlation coefficient (r of 0.2 and average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE of 10 mm. However, the accuracy of TRMM rainfall is improved when temporally averaged to monthly time scale (r of 0.8 and RMSE of 28 mm or annual time scale (r of 0.71 and RMSE of 157 mm. Moreover, improved correlation with observed data was obtained for data spatially averaged at the watershed scale. Therefore, at the monthly and annual time scales, TRMM data can be a useful source of rainfall data for water resources monitoring and management in ungauged basins in semi-arid regions.

First-year evaluation of GPM rainfall over the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rios Gaona, M.F.; Overeem, A.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2016-01-01

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is the successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which orbited Earth for ~17 years. With Core Observatory launched on 27 February 2014, GPM offers global precipitation estimates between 60°N and 60°S at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

Tracking ENSO with tropical trees: Progress in stable isotope dendroclimatology

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, M. N.; Poussart, P. F.; Saleska, S. R.; Schrag, D. P.

2002-12-01

The terrestrial tropics remain an important gap in the growing proxy network used to characterize past ENSO behavior. Here we describe a strategy for development of proxy estimates of paleo-ENSO, via proxy rainfall estimates derived from stable isotope (δ18O) measurements made on tropical trees. The approach applies a new model of oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brand, 1996) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees, even those lacking annual rings. The promise and pitfalls of the approach are illustrated in pilot datasets from the US, Costa Rica, Brazil, and Peru, which show isotopic cycles of 4-6 per mil, and interannual anomalies of up to 8 per mil. Together with the mature ENSO proxies (corals, extratropical tree-rings, varved sediments, and ice cores), replicated and well-dated stable isotope chronologies from tropical trees may eventually improve our understanding of ENSO history over the past several hundred years.

Variability Modeling of Rainfall, Deforestation, and Incidence of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Orán, Argentina, 1985–2007

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Juan Carlos Rosales

2014-01-01

Full Text Available American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985–2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997–2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005–2007.

Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

Science.gov (United States)

Beria, Harsh; Nanda, Trushnamayee; Singh Bisht, Deepak; Chatterjee, Chandranath

2017-12-01

The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014) and retrospective (1998-2013) TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga) revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

Does the GPM mission improve the systematic error component in satellite rainfall estimates over TRMM? An evaluation at a pan-India scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Beria

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The last couple of decades have seen the outburst of a number of satellite-based precipitation products with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM as the most widely used for hydrologic applications. Transition of TRMM into the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM promises enhanced spatio-temporal resolution along with upgrades to sensors and rainfall estimation techniques. The dependence of systematic error components in rainfall estimates of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, and their variation with climatology and topography, was evaluated over 86 basins in India for year 2014 and compared with the corresponding (2014 and retrospective (1998–2013 TRMM estimates. IMERG outperformed TRMM for all rainfall intensities across a majority of Indian basins, with significant improvement in low rainfall estimates showing smaller negative biases in 75 out of 86 basins. Low rainfall estimates in TRMM showed a systematic dependence on basin climatology, with significant overprediction in semi-arid basins, which gradually improved in the higher rainfall basins. Medium and high rainfall estimates of TRMM exhibited a strong dependence on basin topography, with declining skill in higher elevation basins. The systematic dependence of error components on basin climatology and topography was reduced in IMERG, especially in terms of topography. Rainfall-runoff modeling using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model over two flood-prone basins (Mahanadi and Wainganga revealed that improvement in rainfall estimates in IMERG did not translate into improvement in runoff simulations. More studies are required over basins in different hydroclimatic zones to evaluate the hydrologic significance of IMERG.

Some analysis on the diurnal variation of rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, T.; Perng, S.; Hughes, A.

1981-01-01

Data collected from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was examined. The data were collected from 10,000 grid points arranged as a 100 x 100 array; each grid covered a 4 square km area. The amount of rainfall was measured every 15 minutes during the experiment periods using c-band radars. Two types of analyses were performed on the data: analysis of diurnal variation was done on each of grid points based on the rainfall averages at noon and at midnight, and time series analysis on selected grid points based on the hourly averages of rainfall. Since there are no known distribution model which best describes the rainfall amount, nonparametric methods were used to examine the diurnal variation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test if the rainfalls at noon and at midnight have the same statistical distribution. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to test if the noon rainfall is heavier than, equal to, or lighter than the midnight rainfall. These tests were done on each of the 10,000 grid points at which the data are available.

Long-term trends of typhoon-induced rainfall over Taiwan: in situ evidence of poleward shift of typhoons in western North Pacific in recent decades

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Ting-Yu; Oey, Leo; Huang, Shiming; Chou, Simon

2017-04-01

Tracks of tropical cyclones or typhoons in the western North Pacific have recently been shown to shift northward in the past several decades; the poleward shift has been attributed to the expansion of the tropics due to climate warming. Here we use 64-year, hourly rainfall observations around Taiwan, and take advantage of the unique terrain and geographic location of the island with respect to typhoon tracks, to show that since 1950 the typhoon-related rainfalls have been rising on the western side of the island, but decreasing on the eastern side. We show that these extraordinary rainfall patterns, despite the smallness of Taiwan, are indicative of a northward shift of typhoons related to the changes in the wind fields and surface warming over the Indian and Pacific tropical/subtropical regions.

Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N

2013-05-24

Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

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Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

2012-04-01

Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events

Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

Science.gov (United States)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

2014-05-01

Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

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Margaret Wambui Kimani

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks. Satellite rainfall products can potentially play a role in increasing the spatial coverage of rainfall estimates; however, their performance needs to be understood across space–time scales and factors relating to their errors. This study assesses the performance of seven satellite products: Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT, African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43, Climate Prediction Centre (CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, using locally developed gridded (0.05° rainfall data for 15 years (1998–2012 over East Africa. The products’ assessments were done at monthly and yearly timescales and were remapped to the gridded rain gauge data spatial scale during the March to May (MAM and October to December (OND rainy seasons. A grid-based statistical comparison between the two datasets was used, but only pixel values located at the rainfall stations were considered for validation. Additionally, the impact of topography on the performance of the products was assessed by analyzing the pixels in areas of highest negative bias. All the products could substantially replicate rainfall patterns, but their differences are mainly based on retrieving high rainfall amounts, especially of localized orographic types. The products exhibited systematic errors, which

Rainfed agriculture in a semi-arid tropical climate : aspects of land- and watermanagement for red soils in India

OpenAIRE

Huibers, F.P.

1985-01-01

Rainfed agriculture is defined as the production of field crops that completely depend on the local precipitation for their water supply. Although in the semi-arid tropics the mean annual precipitation might seem to be sufficient to grow (adapted) crops, its variability over the years and its erratic distribution over the season pose problems. During relatively dry periods, the crop might suffer from moisture stress, at other times excessive rainfall occurs, causing water logging an...

The Rainfall Intensity Effects on 1–13 GHz UWB-Based 5G System for Outdoor Applications

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Joko Suryana

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports a research contribution on tropical outdoor channel characterization in 1–13 GHz band for 5G systems. This 1–13 GHz ultra-wideband (UWB channel characterization is formulated with rain intensity as the most important variable, from 20 mm/h to 200 mm/h. Tropical rain will cause pulse broadening and distorts the transmitted symbols, so the probability of symbol errors will increase. In this research, the bit error rate (BER performance evaluation is done using both matched filtering or correlator-based receivers. At no rain conditions, BER 10−6 will be attained at signal to noise ratio (SNR 5 dB, but at rainfall intensity 200 mm/h, the BER will fall to 10−2 for matched filter and 5×10-2 for correlator-based receivers. For improving the BER performance, an adaptive nonlinear phase equalizer is proposed which adopts multiple allpass biquad infinite impulse response (IIR filters combined with low-order finite impulse response (FIR filter to mitigate the nonlinearity phase and differential attenuation of magnitude responses due to antenna and tropical outdoor UWB channel effects. Our simulation results show that the proposed equalizer has worked successfully with BER 10−6 on the rain rate that is exceeded for 0.01% of the time (R0.01 rain intensity or 99.99% availability. In addition, at rainfall rate 120 mm/h, the proposed nonlinear phase equalizer can give 9 dB signal improvement.

Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

2009-04-01

Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

Validation and Analysis of Microwave-Derived Rainfall Over the Tropics

Science.gov (United States)

1993-01-01

Intraseasonal Oscillations In addition to the biennial signals identified by Meehl (1987), Lau and col- laborators (Peng 1987; Shen 1987) expound on...temporally integrated, over a 50 x 50 area for a minimum of one month, to create clima - tological rainfall composites. Validation of the ESMR-derived

Effect of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil using soil column

Science.gov (United States)

Ibrahim, A.; Mukhlisin, M.; Jaafar, O.

2018-02-01

Rainfall especially in tropical region caused infiltration to the soil slope. The infiltration may change pore water pressure or matric suction of the soil. The event of rainfall infiltration into soil is a complex mechanism. Therefore, the main objectives of this research paper is to study the influence of rainfall intensity and duration that changed pore water pressure to soil. There are two types of soils used in this study; forest soil and kaolin. Soil column apparatus is used for experiments. Rainfall were applied to the soil and result for 3, 6, 12, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours were retrieved. Result shows that for the both types of soil, the negative pore water pressures were increased during wetting process and gradually decreased towards drying process. The results also show that pore water pressure at top part was increased greatly as the wetting process started compared to the middle and bottom part of the column.

Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

Science.gov (United States)

Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

2016-04-01

Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

Science.gov (United States)

Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-10-01

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

Effects of rainfall exclusion on leaf gas exchange traits and osmotic adjustment in mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica (Dipterocarpaceae) in a Malaysian tropical rain forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Yuta; Ichie, Tomoaki; Kenzo, Tanaka; Yoneyama, Aogu; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Nakashizuka, Tohru

2017-10-01

Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual levels of drought, risking a decline in productivity and an increase in mortality. It still remains unclear how trees and forests respond to such unusual drought, particularly Southeast Asian tropical rain forests. To understand leaf ecophysiological responses of tropical rain forest trees to soil drying, a rainfall exclusion experiment was conducted on mature canopy trees of Dryobalanops aromatica Gaertn.f. (Dipterocarpaceae) for 4 months in an aseasonal tropical rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. The rainfall was intercepted by using a soft vinyl chloride sheet. We compared the three control and three treatment trees with respect to leaf water use at the top of the crown, including stomatal conductance (gsmax), photosynthesis (Amax), leaf water potential (predawn: Ψpre; midday: Ψmid), leaf water potential at turgor loss point (πtlp), osmotic potential at full turgor (π100) and a bulk modulus of elasticity (ε). Measurements were taken using tree-tower and canopy-crane systems. During the experiment, the treatment trees suffered drought stress without evidence of canopy dieback in comparison with the control trees; e.g., Ψpre and Ψmid decreased with soil drying. Minimum values of Ψmid in the treatment trees decreased during the experiment, and were lower than πtlp in the control trees. However, the treatment trees also decreased their πtlp by osmotic adjustment, and the values were lower than the minimum values of their Ψmid. In addition, the treatment trees maintained gs and Amax especially in the morning, though at midday, values decreased to half those of the control trees. Decreasing leaf water potential by osmotic adjustment to maintain gs and Amax under soil drying in treatment trees was considered to represent anisohydric behavior. These results suggest that D. aromatica may have high leaf adaptability to drought by regulating leaf water consumption and maintaining turgor pressure to improve its leaf

Validation of new satellite rainfall products over the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Tesfaye Ayehu, Getachew; Tadesse, Tsegaye; Gessesse, Berhan; Dinku, Tufa

2018-04-01

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison to rain gauge data over the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia for the period of 2000 to 2015. In addition, the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT 3) and the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC 2) products have been used as a benchmark and compared with CHIRPS. From the overall analysis at dekadal (10 days) and monthly temporal scale, CHIRPS exhibited better performance in comparison to TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products. An evaluation based on categorical/volumetric and continuous statistics indicated that CHIRPS has the greatest skills in detecting rainfall events (POD = 0.99, 1.00) and measure of volumetric rainfall (VHI = 1.00, 1.00), the highest correlation coefficients (r = 0.81, 0.88), better bias values (0.96, 0.96), and the lowest RMSE (28.45 mm dekad-1, 59.03 mm month-1) than TAMSAT 3 and ARC 2 products at dekadal and monthly analysis, respectively. CHIRPS overestimates the frequency of rainfall occurrence (up to 31 % at dekadal scale), although the volume of rainfall recorded during those events was very small. Indeed, TAMSAT 3 has shown a comparable performance with that of the CHIRPS product, mainly with regard to bias. The ARC 2 product was found to have the weakest performance underestimating rain gauge observed rainfall by

Impact of the configuration of stretching and ocean-atmosphere coupling on tropical cyclone activity in the variable-resolution GCM ARPEGE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [CNRM-GAME, Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse (France)

2012-11-15

This study starts by investigating the impact of the configuration of the variable-resolution atmospheric grid on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The French atmospheric general circulation model ARPEGE, the grid of which is rotated and stretched over the North Atlantic basin, was used with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The study clearly shows that changing the position of the stretching pole strongly modifies the representation of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. A pole in the centre of the North Atlantic basin provides the best representation of the TC activity for this region. In a second part, the variable-resolution climate model ARPEGE is coupled with the European oceanic global climate model NEMO in order to study the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling on TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. Two pre-industrial runs, a coupled simulation and a simulation forced by the sea surface temperatures from the coupled one, are compared. The results show that the coupled simulation is more active in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico while the forced simulation is more active over eastern Florida and the eastern Atlantic. The difference in the distribution of TC activity is certainly linked with the location of TC genesis. In the forced simulation, tropical cyclogenesis is closer to the west African coast than in the coupled simulation. Moreover, the difference in TC activity over the eastern Atlantic seems to be related to two different mechanisms: the difference in African easterly wave activity over the west of Africa and the cooling produced, in the coupled simulation, by African easterly waves over the eastern Atlantic. Finally, the last part studies the impact of changing the frequency of ocean-atmosphere coupling on Atlantic TC activity. Increasing the frequency of coupling decreases the density of TC activity over the North Atlantic basin. However, it does not modify the spatial distribution of the TC activity. TC rainfalls are

Roles of tropical SST patterns during two types of ENSO in modulating wintertime rainfall over southern China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kang; Huang, Qing-Lan; Tam, Chi-Yung; Wang, Weiqiang; Chen, Sheng; Zhu, Congwen

2018-03-01

The impacts of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the southern China wintertime rainfall (SCWR) have been investigated. Results show that wintertime rainfall over most stations in southern China is enhanced (suppressed) during the EP (CP) El Niño, which are attributed to different atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific (WNP) and South China Sea (SCS) during two types of ENSO. When EP El Niño occurs, an anomalous low-level anticyclone is present over WNP/the Philippines region, resulting in stronger-than-normal southwesterlies over SCS. Such a wind branch acts to suppress East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhance moisture supply, implying surplus SCWR. During CP El Niño, however, anomalous sinking and low-level anticyclonic flow are found to cover a broad region in SCS. These circulation features are associated with moisture divergence over the northern part of SCS and suppressed SCWR. General circulation model experiments have also been conducted to study influence of various tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns on the EAWM atmospheric circulation. For EP El Niño, formation of anomalous low-level WNP anticyclone is jointly attributed to positive/negative SST anomalies (SSTA) over the central-to-eastern/ western equatorial Pacific. However, both positive and negative CP Niño-related-SSTA, located respectively over the central Pacific and WNP/SCS, offset each other and contribute a weak but broad-scale anticyclone centered at SCS. These results suggest that, besides the vital role of SST warming, SST cooling over SCS/WNP during two types of El Niño should be considered carefully for understanding the El Niño-EAWM relationship.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Data and Services for Research and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhong; Ostrenga, Dana; Teng, William; Kempler, Steven

2012-01-01

Precipitation is a critical component of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Launched on 27 November 1997, TRMM is a joint U.S.-Japan satellite mission to provide the first detailed and comprehensive data set of the four-dimensional distribution of rainfall and latent heating over vastly under-sampled tropical and subtropical oceans and continents (40 S - 40 N). Over the past 14 years, TRMM has been a major data source for meteorological, hydrological and other research and application activities around the world. The purpose of this short article is to inform that the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides TRMM archive and near-real-time precipitation data sets and services for research and applications. TRMM data consist of orbital data from TRMM instruments at the sensor s resolution, gridded data at a range of spatial and temporal resolutions, subsets, ground-based instrument data, and ancillary data. Data analysis, display, and delivery are facilitated by the following services: (1) Mirador (data search and access); (2) TOVAS (TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System); (3) OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol); (4) GrADS Data Server (GDS); and (5) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Map Service (WMS) for the GIS community. Precipitation data application services are available to support a wide variety of applications around the world. Future plans include enhanced and new services to address data related issues from the user community. Meanwhile, the GES DISC is preparing for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission which is scheduled for launch in 2014.

Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

2016-10-01

Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Tarnavsky

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

Rainfall Modification by Urban Areas: New Perspectives from TRMM

Science.gov (United States)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Pierce, Harold F.; Negri, Andrew

2002-01-01

Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) were employed to identify warm season rainfall (1998-2000) patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage changes are relative to an upwind control area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind control area by 48% - 116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. Results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and with more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work is extending the investigation to Phoenix, Arizona, an arid U.S. city, and several international cities like Mexico City, Johannesburg, and Brasilia. The study establishes the possibility of utilizing satellite-based rainfall estimates for examining rainfall modification by urban areas on global scales and over longer time periods. Such research has implications for weather forecasting, urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment and climate.

Implication of Negative Entropy Flow for Local Rainfall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhaohui Li

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The relation between the atmospheric entropy flow field and local rainfall is examined in terms of the theory of dissipative structures. In this paper, the entropy balance equation in a form suitable for describing the entropy budget of the Earth’s atmosphere is derived starting from the Gibbs relation, and, as examples, the entropy flows of the two severe weather events associated with the development of an extratropical cyclone and a tropical storm are calculated, respectively. The results show that negative entropy flow (NEF has a significant effect on the precipitation intensity and scope with an apparent matching of the NEF’s pattern with the rainfall distribution revealed and, that the diagnosis of NEF is able to provide a good indicator for precipitation forecasting.

A High-Resolution ENSO-Driven Rainfall Record Derived From an Exceptionally Fast Growing Stalagmite From Niue Island (South Pacific)

Science.gov (United States)

Troy, S.; Aharon, P.; Lambert, W. J.

2012-12-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) dominant control over the present global climate and its unpredictable response to a global warming makes the study of paleo-ENSO important. So far corals, spanning the Tropical Pacific Ocean, are the most commonly used geological archives of paleo-ENSO. This is because corals typically exhibit high growth rates (>1 cm/yr), and reproduce reliably surface water temperatures at sub-annual resolution. However there are limitations to coral archives because their time span is relatively brief (in the order of centuries), thus far making a long and continuous ENSO record difficult to achieve. On the other hand stalagmites from island settings can offer long and continuous records of ENSO-driven rainfall. Niue Island caves offer an unusual opportunity to investigate ENSO-driven paleo-rainfall because the island is isolated from other large land masses, making it untainted by continental climate artifacts, and its geographical location is within the Tropical Pacific "rain pool" (South Pacific Convergence Zone; SPCZ) that makes the rainfall variability particularly sensitive to the ENSO phase switches. We present here a δ18O and δ13C time series from a stalagmite sampled on Niue Island (19°00' S, 169°50' W) that exhibits exceptionally high growth rates (~1.2 mm/yr) thus affording a resolution comparable to corals but for much longer time spans. A precise chronology, dating back to several millennia, was achieved by U/Th dating of the stalagmite. The stalagmite was sampled using a Computer Automated Mill (CAM) at 300 μm increments in order to receive sub-annual resolution (every 3 months) and calcite powders of 50-100 μg weight were analyzed for δ18O and δ13C using a Continuous Flow Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometer (CF-IRMS). The isotope time series contains variable shifts at seasonal, inter-annual, and inter-decadal periodicities. The δ13C and δ18O yield ranges of -3.0 to -13.0 (‰ VPDB) and -3.2 to -6.2 (‰ VPDB

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

Estimating productivity of tropical forest plantations by climatic factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pandey, D.

1996-12-31

This study presents an alternative method of estimating wood production at regional/global levels from tropical plantations based on climatic variables. A generic model for estimating potential yield in tropical plantations was formulated. The model was developed for teak (Tectona grandis L. F.) as a case study. Available data of teak sample plots from India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast, consisting of 153 plots distributed over 38 meteorological stations were used. A new base age invariant site index function was developed and the site index of each plot was estimated. The mean annual volume increment (MAI) of each plot from existing yield tables was then interpolated. Treating MAI at 50 years (rotation age) as potential yield of teak, a model was constructed which could explain about 59% variance of the potential yield. Models constructed for estimating the maximum MAI and the site index of teak explained the variability up to 61% and 57% respectively. The models underestimated the productivity of teak in Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. The rainfall and the relative humidity have been identified as the most important climatic variables influencing the growth of teak. The length of the growing season and the temperature of the warmest month of the growing season were found significant in the models. The temperature and the day length (sunshine) have not been found to be the limiting factors for the growth of teak. However, the maximum temperature beyond a certain upper limit has a negative effect on growth. The study indicates that this upper limit is around 33 deg C for teak. The models could be used to forecast the potential yield of the existing as well as planned teak plantations in the tropical region. 109 refs, 15 figs, 11 tabs

Assessing the water balance in the Sahel : Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff. Part 2 : Idealized modeling of runoff sensitivity

OpenAIRE

Vischel, Théo; Lebel, Thierry

2007-01-01

As in many other semi-arid regions in the world, the Sahelian hydrological environment is characterized by a mosaic of small endoreic catchments with dry soil surface conditions producing mostly Hortonian runoff. Using an SCS-type event based rainfall-runoff model, an idealized modeling experiment of a Sahelian environment is set up to study the sensitivity of runoff to small scale rainfall variability. A set of 548 observed rain events is used to force the hydrological model to study the sen...

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

2015-01-01

Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability