WorldWideScience

Sample records for tropical pacific prediction

  1. Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

    2017-08-01

    The predictability of seasonal anomalies worldwide rests largely on the predictability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Tropical forecast skill is also a key metric of climate models. We find, however, that despite extensive model development, the tropical SST forecast skill of the operational North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of eight coupled atmosphere-ocean models remains close both regionally and temporally to that of a vastly simpler linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed covariances of SST, sea surface height, and wind fields. The LIM clearly captures the essence of the predictable SST dynamics. The NMME and LIM skills also closely track and are only slightly lower than the potential skill estimated using the LIM's forecast signal-to-noise ratios. This suggests that the scope for further skill improvement is small in most regions, except in the western equatorial Pacific where the NMME skill is currently much lower than the LIM skill.

  2. Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models

  3. Seasonal dependence of the predictable low-level circulation patterns over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tuantuan; Huang, Bohua; Yang, Song; Laohalertchai, Charoon

    2018-06-01

    The seasonal dependence of the prediction skill of 850-hPa monthly zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific domain is examined using the ensemble reforecasts for 1983-2010 from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. According to a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis, the most predictable patterns of atmospheric low-level circulation are associated with the developing and maturing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CFSv2 is capable of predicting these ENSO-related patterns up to 9-months in advance for all months, except for May-June when the effect of the spring barrier is strong. The other predictable climate processes associated with the low-level atmospheric circulation are more seasonally dependent. For winter and spring, the second most predictable patterns are associated with the ENSO decaying phase. Within these seasons, the monthly evolution of the predictable patterns is characterized by a southward shift of westerly wind anomalies, generated by the interaction between the annual cycle and the ENSO signals (i.e., the combination-mode). In general, the CFSv2 hindcast well predicts these patterns at least 5 months in advance for spring, while shows much lower skills for winter months. In summer, the second predictable patterns are associated with the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon (i.e., the WNP anticyclone/cyclone) in short leads while associated with ENSO in longer leads (after 4-month lead). The second predictable patterns in fall are mainly associated with tropical Indian Ocean Dipole, which can be predicted 3 months in advance.

  4. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  5. Predictability of CFSv2 in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, at daily and subseasonal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, V.

    2018-06-01

    The predictability of a coupled climate model is evaluated at daily and intraseasonal time scales in the tropical Indo-Pacific region during boreal summer and winter. This study has assessed the daily retrospective forecasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction for the period 1982-2010. The growth of errors in the forecasts of daily precipitation, monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is studied. The seasonal cycle of the daily climatology of precipitation is reasonably well predicted except for the underestimation during the peak of summer. The anomalies follow the typical pattern of error growth in nonlinear systems and show no difference between summer and winter. The initial errors in all the cases are found to be in the nonlinear phase of the error growth. The doubling time of small errors is estimated by applying Lorenz error formula. For summer and winter, the doubling time of the forecast errors is in the range of 4-7 and 5-14 days while the doubling time of the predictability errors is 6-8 and 8-14 days, respectively. The doubling time in MISO during the summer and MJO during the winter is in the range of 12-14 days, indicating higher predictability and providing optimism for long-range prediction. There is no significant difference in the growth of forecasts errors originating from different phases of MISO and MJO, although the prediction of the active phase seems to be slightly better.

  6. Tropical Pacific Observing for the Next Decade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legler, David M.; Hill, Katherine

    2014-06-01

    More than 60 scientists and program officials from 13 countries met at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography for the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Workshop. The workshop, although motivated in part by the dramatic decline of NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) buoy reporting from mid-2012 to early 2014 (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-07/aging-el-nino-buoys-getting-fixed-as-weather-forecasts-at-risk.html), evaluated the needs for tropical Pacific observing and initiated efforts to develop a more resilient and integrative observing system for the future.

  7. How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, Anand; Emanuel, Kerry; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Anderson, Whit G.; Hallberg, Robert

    2010-09-01

    Because ocean color alters the absorption of sunlight, it can produce changes in sea surface temperatures with further impacts on atmospheric circulation. These changes can project onto fields previously recognized to alter the distribution of tropical cyclones. If the North Pacific subtropical gyre contained no absorbing and scattering materials, the result would be to reduce subtropical cyclone activity in the subtropical Northwest Pacific by 2/3, while concentrating cyclone tracks along the equator. Predicting tropical cyclone activity using coupled models may thus require consideration of the details of how heat moves into the upper thermocline as well as biogeochemical cycling.

  8. Indo-Pacific echinoids in the tropical eastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessios, H. A.; Kessing, B. D.; Wellington, G. M.; Graybeal, A.

    1996-06-01

    The existing literature reports that only one species of Indo-Pacific echinoid ( Echinometra oblonga), occurs in the eastern Pacific. In this study we confirm the presence of this species at Islas Revillagigedo and also report the presence of two species of Echinothrix (a genus hitherto unknown outside the Indo-Pacific) at Isla del Coco and at Clipperton Island. We also present evidence from isozymes and from mitochondrial DNA sequences indicating that at least one individual of Diadema at Clipperton may belong to a maternal lineage characteristic of the west Pacific species D. savignyi. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that the observed populations of Indo-Pacific echinoid species are recent arrivals to the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the view that they are relicts of Tethyan pan-tropical distributions. Echinothrix diadema, in particular, may have arrived at Isla del Coco during the 1982-1983 El Nifio. In addition to Indo-Pacific species, Clipperton, Isla del Coco and the Revillagigedos contain a complement of eastern Pacific echinoids. The echinoid faunas of these islands should, therefore, be regarded as mixtures of two biogeographic provinces. Though none of the Indo-Pacific species are known to have reached the coast of the American mainland, their presence at the offshore islands of the eastern Pacific suggests that, for some echinoids, the East Pacific Barrier is not as formidable an obstacle to migration as was previously thought.

  9. Salinity fronts in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Hsun-Ying; Lagerloef, Gary S E

    2015-02-01

    This study delineates the salinity fronts (SF) across the tropical Pacific, and describes their variability and regional dynamical significance using Aquarius satellite observations. From the monthly maps of the SF, we find that the SF in the tropical Pacific are (1) usually observed around the boundaries of the fresh pool under the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), (2) stronger in boreal autumn than in other seasons, and (3) usually stronger in the eastern Pacific than in the western Pacific. The relationship between the SF and the precipitation and the surface velocity are also discussed. We further present detailed analysis of the SF in three key tropical Pacific regions. Extending zonally around the ITCZ, where the temperature is nearly homogeneous, we find the strong SF of 1.2 psu from 7° to 11°N to be the main contributor of the horizontal density difference of 0.8 kg/m 3 . In the eastern Pacific, we observe a southward extension of the SF in the boreal spring that could be driven by both precipitation and horizontal advection. In the western Pacific, the importance of these newly resolved SF associated with the western Pacific warm/fresh pool and El Niño southern oscillations are also discussed in the context of prior literature. The main conclusions of this study are that (a) Aquarius satellite salinity measurements reveal the heretofore unknown proliferation, structure, and variability of surface salinity fronts, and that (b) the fine-scale structures of the SF in the tropical Pacific yield important new information on the regional air-sea interaction and the upper ocean dynamics.

  10. Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.; hide

    2011-01-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too

  11. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ZONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN HIGH AND LOW TROPOSPHERE AND ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF NW PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GONG Zhen-song; HE Min

    2007-01-01

    Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition.It is indicated that when △ U200-△U850 >0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and △ U200- △U850 <0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.

  12. Tropical cyclone statistics in the Northeastern Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero-Vadillo, E. [Universidad Autonoma de Baja California Sur (UABCS), La Paz, Baja California Sur (Mexico); Zaytsev, O. [Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, La Paz, Baja California Sur (Mexico)]. E-mail: ozaytsev@ipn.mx; Morales-Perez, R. [Instituto Mexicano de Tecnologia del Agua (IMTA), Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2007-04-15

    The principal area of tropical cyclogenesis in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean is offshore in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between 8 and 15 degrees Celsius N, and most of these cyclones move towards the west and northwest during their initial phase. Historical analysis of tropical cyclone data in the Northeastern (NE) Pacific over the last 38 years (from 1966 to 2004) shows a mean of 16.3 tropical cyclones per year, consisting of 8.8 hurricanes 198 and 7.4 tropical storms. The analysis shows great geographical variability of cyclone tracks, and that there were a considerable number of hurricane strikes along the Mexican coast. About 50% of the tropical cyclones formed turned north to northeast. It was rare that any passed further north than 30 degrees Celsius N in latitude because of the cold California Current. Hurricane tracks that affected the NE Pacific may be separated into 5 groups. We compared the historical record of the sea surface temperature (SST), related with the El Nino events with a data set of tropical cyclones, including frequency, intensity, trajectory, and duration. Although the statistical dependence between the frequencies of tropical cyclones of the most abundant categories, 1 and 2, over this region and SST data was not convincing, the percentage of high intensity hurricanes and hurricanes with a long life-time (greater than 12 days) was more during El Nino years than in non-El Nino years. [Spanish] La principal region de la formacion de ciclones en el oceano Pacifico Este es el Golfo de Tehuantepec, entre los 8 y los 15 grados Celsius N. En su fase inicial los ciclones se mueven hacia el oeste y el noroeste. El analisis historico de los ciclones que se han generado durante los ultimos 38 anos (de 1966 a 2004) muestra un promedio de 16.2 ciclones por ano, consistentes en 8.8 huracanes y 7.4 tormentas tropicales. El analisis muestra una gran variabilidad geografica en la trayectoria de los ciclones, de los cuales un gran numero impacta las

  13. Air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, L. J.; Steranka, J.; Holub, R. J.; Hansen, J.; Godshall, F. A.; Prabhakara, C.

    1972-01-01

    Charts of 3-month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were produced for the period 1949 to 1970. The anomalies along the United States and South American west coasts and in the eastern tropical Pacific appeared to be oscillating in phase during this period. Similarly, the satellite-derived cloudiness for each of four quadrants of the Pacific Ocean (130 deg E to 100 deg W, 30 deg N to 25 deg S) appeared to be oscillating in phase. In addition, a global tropical cloudiness oscillation from 30 deg N to 30 deg S was noted from 1965 to 1970, by using monthly satellite television nephanalyses. The SST anomalies were found to have a good degree of correlation both positive and negative with the following monthly geophysical parameters: (1) satellite-derived cloudiness, (2) strength of the North and South Pacific semipermanent anticyclones, (3) tropical Pacific island rainfall, and (4) Darwin surface pressure. Several strong direct local and crossequatorial relationships were noted. In particular, the high degree of correlation between the tropical island rainfall and the SST anomalies (r = +0.93) permitted the derivation of SST's for the tropical Pacific back to 1905. The close occurrence of cold tropical SST and North Pacific 700-mb positive height anomalies with central United States drought conditions was noted.

  14. Training on Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones for Latin American students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farfán, L. M.; Raga, G. B.

    2009-05-01

    Tropical cyclones are one of the most impressive atmospheric phenomena and their development in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins has potential to affect several Latin-American and Caribbean countries, where human resources are limited. As part of an international research project, we are offering short courses based on the current understanding of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific basin. Our main goal is to train students from higher-education institutions from various countries in Latin America. Key aspects are tropical cyclone formation and evolution, with particular emphasis on their development off the west coast of Mexico. Our approach includes lectures on tropical cyclone climatology and formation, dynamic and thermodynamic models, air-sea interaction and oceanic response, ocean waves and coastal impacts as well as variability and climate-related predictions. In particular, we use a best-track dataset issued by the United States National Hurricane Center and satellite observations to analyze convective patterns for the period 1970-2006. Case studies that resulted in landfall over northwestern Mexico are analyzed in more detail; this includes systems that developed during the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons. Additionally, we have organized a human-dimensions symposium to discuss socio-economic issues that are associated with the landfall of tropical cyclones. This includes coastal zone impact and flooding, the link between cyclones and water resources, the flow of weather and climate information from scientists to policy- makers, the role of emergency managers and decision makers, impact over health issues and the viewpoint of the insurance industry.

  15. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  16. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  17. Unprecedented 2015/2016 Indo-Pacific Heat Transfer Speeds Up Tropical Pacific Heat Recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Michael; Alonso Balmaseda, Magdalena; Haimberger, Leopold

    2018-04-01

    El Niño events are characterized by anomalously warm tropical Pacific surface waters and concurrent ocean heat discharge, a precursor of subsequent cold La Niña conditions. Here we show that El Niño 2015/2016 departed from this norm: despite extreme peak surface temperatures, tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S) upper ocean heat content increased by 9.6 ± 1.7 ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J), in stark contrast to the previous strong El Niño in 1997/1998 (-11.5 ± 2.9 ZJ). Unprecedented reduction of Indonesian Throughflow volume and heat transport played a key role in the anomalous 2015/2016 event. We argue that this anomaly is linked with the previously documented intensified warming and associated rising sea levels in the Indian Ocean during the last decade. Additionally, increased absorption of solar radiation acted to dampen Pacific ocean heat content discharge. These results explain the weak and short-lived La Niña conditions in 2016/2017 and indicate the need for realistic representation of Indo-Pacific energy transfers for skillful seasonal-to-decadal predictions.

  18. Anthropogenic Pu distribution in Tropical East Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinoshita, Norikazu; Sumi, Takahiro; Takimoto, Kiyotaka; Nagaoka, Mika; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Nakanishi, Takashi

    2011-01-01

    The geographical distribution of the anthropogenic radionuclides 238 Pu and 239+240 Pu in the Tropical East Pacific in 2003 was studied from the viewpoint of material migration. We measured the contents of Pu isotopes in seawater and in sediment from the sea bottom. The distributions of Pu isotopes, together with those of coexisting nitrate and phosphate species and dissolved oxygen, are discussed in relation to the potential temperature and potential density (sigma-θ). The Pu contents in sediment samples were compared with those in the seawater. Horizontal migration across the Equator from north to south was investigated at depths down to ∼ 800 m in the eastern Pacific. The Pu distribution at 0-400 m correlated well with the distribution of potential temperature. Maximum Pu levels were observed in the subsurface layer at 600-800 m, corresponding to the depth where sigma-θ ∼ 27.0. It is suggested that the Pu distribution depends on the structure of the water mass and the particular temperature and salinity. The water column/sediment column inventory ratio and the vertical distribution of Pu may reflect the efficiency of scavenging in the relevant water areas. Research Highlights: → Geographical distributions of Pu isotopes were investigated from viewpoint of material migration. → Horizontal migration from north to south was found at depths down to ∼800 m in the eastern Pacific. → Pu distribution at 0-400 m was correlated with water temperature. → The distribution at 600-800 m correlated with water mass structure. → Pu in seawater and sediment gave information about efficiency of scavenging.

  19. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2018-03-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  20. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    OpenAIRE

    W. Anderson; A. Gnanadesikan; A. Wittenberg

    2009-01-01

    The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly se...

  1. Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohlmann, Holger; Kröger, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-10-01

    Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2-5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2-5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions.

  2. Physical and meteorological data from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array in the tropical Pacific Ocean

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) Array of 55 moored buoys spans the tropical Pacific from longitudes 165°E to 95°W between latitudes of approximately 8°S and...

  3. Interannual Weakening of the Tropical Pacific Walker Circulation Due to Strong Tropical Volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Jiapeng; Wang, Tao; Wang, Huijun; Sun, Jianqi

    2018-06-01

    In order to examine the response of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) to strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs), we analyzed a three-member long-term simulation performed with HadCM3, and carried out four additional CAM4 experiments. We found that the PWC shows a significant interannual weakening after SVEs. The cooling effect from SVEs is able to cool the entire tropics. However, cooling over the Maritime Continent is stronger than that over the central-eastern tropical Pacific. Thus, non-uniform zonal temperature anomalies can be seen following SVEs. As a result, the sea level pressure gradient between the tropical Pacific and the Maritime Continent is reduced, which weakens trade winds over the tropical Pacific. Therefore, the PWC is weakened during this period. At the same time, due to the cooling subtropical and midlatitude Pacific, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are weakened and shift to the equator. These changes also contribute to the weakened PWC. Meanwhile, through the positive Bjerknes feedback, weakened trade winds cause El Niño-like SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific, which in turn further influence the PWC. Therefore, the PWC significantly weakens after SVEs. The CAM4 experiments further confirm the influences from surface cooling over the Maritime Continent and subtropical/midlatitude Pacific on the PWC. Moreover, they indicate that the stronger cooling over the Maritime Continent plays a dominant role in weakening the PWC after SVEs. In the observations, a weakened PWC and a related El Niño-like SST pattern can be found following SVEs.

  4. Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability

    OpenAIRE

    Wieners, C.E.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Ridderinkhof, W.; von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2016-01-01

    A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO mode...

  5. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

    2009-08-01

    The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  6. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Anderson

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  7. A decadal tropical Pacific condition unfavorable to central Pacific El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Wenxiu; Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Cai, Wenju

    2017-08-01

    The frequency of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events displays strong decadal variability but the associated dynamics are unclear. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) are two dominant modes of tropical Pacific decadal variability that can interact with high-frequency activities. Using a 500 year control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, we find that the difference in mean state between the low-frequency and high-frequency CP El Niño periods is similar to the decadal background condition concurrently contributed by a negative IPO and a positive TPDV. This decadal state features strengthened trade winds west of the International Date Line and anomalous cool sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific. As such, positive zonal advection feedback is difficult to be generated over the central to western tropical Pacific during the CP El Niño developing season, resulting in the low CP El Niño frequency.

  8. Continued Analysis on Multiscale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Structure Change and Predictability in the Western North Pacific Region as Part of the TCS08 DRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Atmospheric Administration. The published paper was entitled “Structure of the Eye and Eyewall of Hurricane Hugo (1989) and was published in Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1237-1259. ...developments in tropical cyclone intensification theory A new paradigm of tropical cyclone intensification and hurricane boundary layer dynamics has been... Hurricane Rita (2005) show strong support for the second spin-up mechanism in the concentric eyewall lifecycle. Didlake and Houze (2011) found a

  9. Proceedings of the session on tropical forestry for people of the Pacific, XVII Pacific Science Congress; May 27-28, 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eugene C. Conrad; Leonard A. Newell

    1992-01-01

    The 17 papers in the Proceedings of the Session on Tropical Forestry for People of the Pacific cover the topics of the USDA Forest Service's tropical forestry research, forestry research in Asia and the Pacific, management of tropical forests for products and energy; forest and wildlife management, the South Pacific Forestry Development Programme, tropical...

  10. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

  11. Penetration of tritium into the Tropical Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, R.A.; Peterson, W.H.; Ostlund, H.G.

    1987-01-01

    The persistence of subsurface tritium maxima coincident with the Equatorial Currents is used to show that advection along isopycnals by the mean wind-driven circulation is the dominant process in the at most 14-year time scale for the penetration of high northern latitude water to the equator (above 26.2 sigma-theta). Ventilation of the equatorial Pacific thermocline from the north contrasts sharply with the equatorial Atlantic thermocline which is ventilated from the south. The most striking manifestation of the North Pacific circulation is evidenced by a tritium maximum and salinity minimum at the equator between 145 0 and 125 0 W located above 25.6 sigma-theta. It shows that regardless of time of sampling the easter/central equator has received the highest latitude water, probably as a consequence of recirculation by the Equatorial Currents. Between the same meridians there is a tritium maximum on and north of the equator at the surface, which is interpreted as an expression of upwelling. Its coincidence with the cool tongue (Wyrtki) provides direct evidence that the upwelling process plays a dominant role in its maintenance on a decadal time scale

  12. Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

    OpenAIRE

    Fiedler, Paul C.

    1992-01-01

    Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and...

  13. Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) 2014 Western Pacific Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, E.; Pfister, L.

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) is a series of airborne campaigns focused on understanding physical processes in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and their role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. ATTREX is using the high-altitude, long-duration NASA Global Hawk Unmanned Air System to make in situ and remote-sensing measurements spanning the Pacific. A particular ATTREX emphasis is to better understand the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold tropical tropopause region. The ATTREX payload contains 12 in situ and remote sensing instruments that measure water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrous oxide), reactive chemical compounds (ozone, bromine, nitrous oxide), meteorological parameters, and radiative fluxes. During January-March, 2014, the Global Hawk was deployed to Guam for ATTREX flights. Six science flights were conducted from Guam (in addition to the transits across the Pacific), resulting in over 100 hours of Western Pacific TTL sampling and about 180 vertical profiles through the TTL. I will provide an overview of the dataset, with examples of the measurements including meteorological parameters, clouds and water vapor, and chemical tracers.

  14. ENSO surface longwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S–40 N, 90 E–75 W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text, for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E. There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3–4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to −20 Wm−2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15–0 S, 105–130 E these values range from −15 Wm−2 to +10 Wm−2, respectively. The long- term average (1984–2004 distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm−2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7–0 S, 160–120 W for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the

  15. Do regions outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO through atmospheric teleconnections?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dayan, H.; Izumo, T.; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Masson, S

    This paper aims at identifying oceanic regions outside the tropical Pacific, which may influence the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through interannual modulation of equatorial Pacific winds An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) 7...

  16. Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific - June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surendran, Sajani; Gadgil, Sulochana; Rajendran, Kavirajan; Varghese, Stella Jes; Kitoh, Akio

    2018-03-01

    Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

  17. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  18. Control of tropical instability waves in the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, M. R.; Lawrence, S. P.; Murray, M. J.; Mutlow, C. T.; Stockdale, T. N.; Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Anderson, D. L. T.

    Westward-propagating waves with periods of 20-30 days and wavelengths of ˜ 1,100km are a prominent feature of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. They have been attributed to instabilities due to current shear. We compare SST observations from the spaceborne Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and TOGA-TAO moored buoys with SSTs from a model of the tropical Pacific forced with observed daily windstress data. The phases of the strongest “Tropical Instability Waves” (TIWs) in the model are in closer correspondence with those observed than we would expect if these waves simply developed from infinitesimal disturbances (in which case their phases would be arbitrary). If we filter out the intraseasonal component of the windstress, all phase-correspondence is lost. We conclude that the phases of these waves are not arbitrary, but partially determined by the intraseasonal winds. The subsurface evolution of the model suggests a possible control mechanism is through interaction with remotely-forced subsurface Kelvin and Rossby waves. This is supported by an experiment which shows how zonal wind bursts in the west Pacific can modify the TIW field, but other mechanisms, such as local feedbacks, are also possible.

  19. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ15N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ15N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ15N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean’s largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

  20. Oceanography. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-08-08

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  1. Oceanic migration behaviour of tropical Pacific eels from Vanuatu

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schabetsberger, R; Økland, F; Aarestrup, K

    2013-01-01

    Information on oceanic migrations and spawning areas of tropical Pacific freshwater eels (genus Anguilla) is very limited. Lake Letas and its single outflowing river, Mbe Solomul on Gaua Island, Vanuatu, were surveyed for large migrating individuals. Twenty-four Anguilla marmorata (87 to 142 cm),...... impact of the lunar cycle on the upper limit of migration depths was found in A. marmorata (full moon: 230 m, new moon: 170 m). These behaviours may be explained as a trade-off between predator avoidance and the necessity to maintain a sufficiently high metabolism for migration....

  2. Oceanic upwelling and productivity in the eastern tropical Pacific

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiedler, P.C.; Philbrick, V.; Chavez, F.P.

    1991-01-01

    An oceanographic survey of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean in August-November 1990 found a productive, nutrient-rich, moderately high-chlorophyll surface layer in two oceanic upwelling regions: the equatorial divergence, especially east of the Galapagos, and the countercurrent divergence out to 105 degree W, > 1,000 km west of the Costa Rica Dome. Although NO 3 is not depleted in upwelling regions, relationships among nutrient concentrations and temperature in 1986-1988 data from the same area show that NO 3 is the first macronutrient to be depleted in adjacent, less-productive regions. A three-dimensional, two-layer box model of NO 3 flux within and into the euphotic zone gives estimated rates of new production that are ∼29% of measured rates of 14 C phytoplankton production. Persistence of excess NO 3 in the euphotic zone exceeds 1 yr under high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll conditions off the equator where weak upwelling, or downwelling, occurs. These results indicate substantial control or limitation of NO 3 utilization and productivity in nutrient-rich oceanic regions of the eastern tropical Pacific

  3. First record of the blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus (Carcharhiniformes: Carcharhinidae from the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés López-Garro

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus, is one of the most common Indo-Pacific reef sharks. On April 29, 2012, a juvenile male blacktip reef shark measuring 89 cm total length (TL, was incidentally caught during a research expedition in Chatham Bay, Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, located in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. This is the first record of the species from Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, and from the Tropical Eastern Pacific.

  4. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  5. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  6. Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vincent, Emmanuel M. [IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Paris (France); UPMC, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Lengaigne, Matthieu [IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Paris (France); National Institute of Oceanography, Goa (India); Menkes, Christophe E. [IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Paris (France); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Noumea (New Caledonia); Jourdain, Nicolas C. [Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Noumea (New Caledonia); Marchesiello, Patrick [Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Noumea (New Caledonia); CNES/CNRS/UPS/IRD, Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale (LEGOS), Toulouse (France); Madec, Gurvan [IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Paris (France); National Oceanographic Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979-2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3 northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Nino events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Nino event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6 to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10 south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Nino years in general. Different characteristics of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO

  7. Evaluation of tropical Pacific observing systems using NCEP and GFDL ocean data assimilation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, Caihong; Yang, Xiaosong; Behringer, David; Kumar, Arun; Vecchi, Gabriel; Rosati, Anthony; Gudgel, Rich

    2017-08-01

    The TAO/TRITON array is the cornerstone of the tropical Pacific and ENSO observing system. Motivated by the recent rapid decline of the TAO/TRITON array, the potential utility of TAO/TRITON was assessed for ENSO monitoring and prediction. The analysis focused on the period when observations from Argo floats were also available. We coordinated observing system experiments (OSEs) using the global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for the period 2004-2011. Four OSE simulations were conducted with inclusion of different subsets of in situ profiles: all profiles (XBT, moorings, Argo), all except the moorings, all except the Argo and no profiles. For evaluation of the OSE simulations, we examined the mean bias, standard deviation difference, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and anomaly correlation against observations and objective analyses. Without assimilation of in situ observations, both GODAS and ECDA had large mean biases and RMSD in all variables. Assimilation of all in situ data significantly reduced mean biases and RMSD in all variables except zonal current at the equator. For GODAS, the mooring data is critical in constraining temperature in the eastern and northwestern tropical Pacific, while for ECDA both the mooring and Argo data is needed in constraining temperature in the western tropical Pacific. The Argo data is critical in constraining temperature in off-equatorial regions for both GODAS and ECDA. For constraining salinity, sea surface height and surface current analysis, the influence of Argo data was more pronounced. In addition, the salinity data from the TRITON buoys played an important role in constraining salinity in the western Pacific. GODAS was more sensitive to withholding Argo data in off-equatorial regions than ECDA because it relied on local observations to correct model biases and

  8. Transport and Thermohaline Structure in the Western Tropical North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schonau, Martha Coakley

    Transport and thermohaline structure of water masses and their respective variability are observed and modeled in the western tropical North Pacific using autonomous underwater gliders, Argo climatology and a numerical ocean state estimate. The North Equatorial Current (NEC) advects subtropical and subpolar water masses into the region that are transported equatorward by the Mindanao Current (MC). Continuous glider observations of these two currents from June 2009 to December 2013 provide absolute geostrophic velocity, water mass structure, and transport. The observations are compared to Argo climatology (Roemmich and Gilson, 2009), wind and precipitation to assess forcing, and annual and interannual variability. Observations are assimilated into a regional ocean state estimate (1/6°) to examine regional transport variability and its relationship to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena (ENSO). The NEC, described in Chapter 1, is observed along 134.3°E, from 8.5°N to 16.5°N. NEC thermocline transport is relatively constant, with a variable subthermocline transport that is distinguished by countercurrents centered at 9.6°N and 13.1°N. Correlation between thermocline and subthermocline transport is strong. Isopycnals with subducted water masses, the North Pacific Tropical Water and North Pacific Intermediate Water, have the greatest fine-scale thermohaline variance. The NEC advects water masses into the MC, described in Chapter 2, that flows equatorward along the coast of Mindanao. Gliders observed the MC at a mean latitude of 8.5°N. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC) persists in the subthermocline offshore of the MC, with a net poleward transport of intermediate water typical of South Pacific origin. The variable subthermocline transport in the MC/MUC has an inverse linear relationship with the Nino 3.4 index and strongly impacts total transport variability. For each the MC and NEC, surface salinity and thermocline depth have a strong relationship with ENSO

  9. Mechanisms of P* reduction in the eastern tropical South Pacific

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Judith; Löscher, Carolin R.; Lavik, Gaute

    2017-01-01

    Water masses influenced by oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) feature low inorganic nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) ratios. The surplus of P over N is thought to favor non-Redfield primary production by bloom-forming phytoplankton species. Additionally, excess phosphate (P*) is thought to provide a niche...... Redfield proportions throughout the sampling area, the stoichiometry of particulate organic nitrogen to phosphorus (PON:POP) generally exceeded ratios of 16:1. Despite PON:POP ≥ 16, high P*-values in the surface layer (0-50 m) above the shelf rapidly decreased as water masses were advected offshore...... for nitrogen fixing organisms. In order to assess the effect of low inorganic nutrient ratios on the stoichiometry and composition of primary producers, biogeochemical measurements were carried out in 2012 during a research cruise in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP). Based on pigment analyses...

  10. Distribution and Magnitude of Dinitrogen Fixation in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific Oxygen Deficient Zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selden, C.; Mulholland, M. R.; Widner, B.; Bernhardt, P. W.; Macías Tapia, A.; Jayakumar, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Eastern Tropical North Pacific Ocean (ETNP) hosts one of the world's three major open ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). Hotspots for fixed nitrogen (N) loss processes, ODZs have classically been discounted as areas of significant dinitrogen (N2) fixation, the microbe-mediated reduction of N2 to ammonium (NH4+), which has historically been ascribed primarily to euphotic, nutrient-deplete tropical waters. Challenging this paradigm, active expression of nifH (the dinitrogen reductase structural gene) has recently been documented in the ETNP, Eastern Tropical South Pacific, and Arabian Sea ODZs, implying a closer coupling of fixed nitrogen input and loss processes than previously thought. Here, we report rates of N­2 fixation measured in the ETNP ODZ along vertical gradients of oxygen, light, and dissolved N concentrations. Detailed vertical profiles of N2 fixation rates and dissolved N concentrations made within the ODZ were compared with similar profiles from oxic waters outside the ODZ. In addition, different organic carbon sources were investigated as potential rate-limiting factors for N2 fixation in sub-euphotic waters. By establishing the magnitude and distribution of N­2 fixation in the ETNP ODZ, this study contributes to current understanding of N cycling in anoxic and aphotic waters, and serves to elucidate nuances in the global N budget, enabling more accurate biogeochemical modeling. Understanding these processes in present day ODZs is crucial for predicting how ongoing anthropogenic intensification of coastal ODZs will alter biogeochemical cycles in the future.

  11. Relationship of boreal summer 10-20-day and 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the tropical western North Pacific to tropical Indo-Pacific SST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Renguang; Cao, Xi

    2017-06-01

    The present study contrasts interannual variations in the intensity of boreal summer 10-20-day and 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) over the tropical western North Pacific and their factors. A pronounced difference is found in the relationship of the two ISOs to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The 10-20-day ISO intensity is enhanced during El Niño developing summer, whereas the 30-60-day ISO intensity is enhanced during La Niña decaying summer. The above different relationship is interpreted as follows. The equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies modify vertical wind shear, lower-level moisture, and vertical motion in a southeast-northwest oriented band from the equatorial western Pacific to the tropical western North Pacific where the 10-20-day ISOs originate and propagate. These background field changes modulate the amplitude of 10-20-day ISOs. Preceding equatorial central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies induce SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean in summer, which in turn modify vertical wind shear and vertical motion over the tropical western North Pacific. The modified background fields influence the amplitude of the 30-60-day ISOs when they reach the tropical western North Pacific from the equatorial region. A feedback of ISO intensity on local SST change is identified in the tropical western North Pacific likely due to a net effect of ISOs on surface heat flux anomalies. This feedback is more prominent from the 10-20-day than the 30-60-day ISO intensity change.

  12. Enhanced Influence of the Tropical Atlantic SST on the Western North Pacific Subtropical High after late 1970s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in boreal summer shows a remarkable enhancement after the late 1970s. Whereas the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) had been noted to have remarkable local or remote effects on enhancing the WNPSH, the influence of the Atlantic SST, so far, is hardly explored. This article reports a new finding: enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic (TA)-SST and the WNPSH after the late 1970s. Regression study suggests that the warm TA-SST produced a zonally overturning circulation anomaly, with descending over the central equatorial Pacific and ascending over the tropical Atlantic/eastern Pacific. The anomalous descending over the central equatorial Pacific likely induced low-level anticyclonic anomaly to the west and therefore enhanced the WNPSH. One implication of this new finding is for predictability. The well-known "spring predictability barrier" (i.e., the influence of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) falls dramatically during boreal spring) does not apply to the TA-SST/WNPSH relationship. Conversely, the TA-SST shows consistently high correlation starting from boreal spring when the ENSO influence continues declining. The TA-SST pushes the predictability of the WNPSH in boreal summer approximately one season earlier to boreal spring.

  13. ENSO surface shortwave radiation forcing over the tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Pavlakis

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the downward shortwave radiation (DSR at the surface of the Earth during ENSO events for a 21-year period over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40° S–40° N, 90° E–75° W. The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database, reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters, and aerosol parameters from GADS (acronyms explained in main text. A clear anti-correlation was found between the downward shortwave radiation anomaly (DSR-A time-series, in the region 7° S–5° N 160° E–160° W located west of the Niño-3.4 region, and the Niño-3.4 index time-series. In this region where the highest in absolute value DSR anomalies are observed, the mean DSR anomaly values range from −45 Wm−2 during El Niño episodes to +40 Wm−2 during La Niña events. Within the Niño-3.4 region no significant DSR anomalies are observed during the cold ENSO phase in contrast to the warm ENSO phase. A high correlation was also found over the western Pacific (10° S–5° N, 120–140° E, where the mean DSR anomaly values range from +20 Wm−2 to −20 Wm−2 during El Niño and La Niña episodes, respectively. There is also convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downward shortwave radiation anomaly in the off-equatorial western Pacific region 7–15° N 150–170° E, precedes the Niño-3.4 index time-series by about 7 months and the pattern of this anomaly is indicative of ENSO operating through the mechanism of the western Pacific oscillator. Thus, the downward shortwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to assess whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail.

  14. Predicting soil properties in the tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minasny, B.; Hartemink, A.E.

    2011-01-01

    It is practically impossible to measure soil properties continuously at each location across the globe. Therefore, it is necessary to have robust systems that can predict soil properties at a given location. That is needed in many tropical countries where the dearth of soil property measurements is

  15. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    2000-10-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  16. Physical and meteorological data from the seventy moorings of the Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Project in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, 1979-2002 (NODC Accession 0000727)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical and meteorological data were collected in the Tropical Pacific Ocean from 29 January 1979 to 03 November 2001. Data were collected by the Pacific Marine...

  17. Ammonia and nitrite oxidation in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xuefeng; Fuchsman, Clara A.; Jayakumar, Amal; Oleynik, Sergey; Martens-Habbena, Willm; Devol, Allan H.; Ward, Bess B.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrification plays a key role in the marine nitrogen (N) cycle, including in oceanic oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), which are hot spots for denitrification and anaerobic ammonia oxidation (anammox). Recent evidence suggests that nitrification links the source (remineralized organic matter) and sink (denitrification and anammox) of fixed N directly in the steep oxycline in the OMZs. We performed shipboard incubations with 15N tracers to characterize the depth distribution of nitrification in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP). Additional experiments were conducted to investigate photoinhibition. Allylthiourea (ATU) was used to distinguish the contribution of archaeal and bacterial ammonia oxidation. The abundance of archaeal and β-proteobacterial ammonia monooxygenase gene subunit A (amoA) was determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The rates of ammonia and nitrite oxidation showed distinct subsurface maxima, with the latter slightly deeper than the former. The ammonia oxidation maximum coincided with the primary nitrite concentration maximum, archaeal amoA gene maximum, and the subsurface nitrous oxide maximum. Negligible rates of ammonia oxidation were found at anoxic depths, where high rates of nitrite oxidation were measured. Archaeal amoA gene abundance was generally 1 to 2 orders of magnitude higher than bacterial amoA gene abundance, and inhibition of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria with 10 μM ATU did not affect ammonia oxidation rates, indicating the dominance of archaea in ammonia oxidation. These results depict highly dynamic activities of ammonia and nitrite oxidation in the oxycline of the ETNP OMZ.

  18. Rewilding the tropics, and other conservation translocations strategies in the tropical Asia-Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louys, Julien; Corlett, Richard T; Price, Gilbert J; Hawkins, Stuart; Piper, Philip J

    2014-01-01

    Alarm over the prospects for survival of species in a rapidly changing world has encouraged discussion of translocation conservation strategies that move beyond the focus of ‘at-risk’ species. These approaches consider larger spatial and temporal scales than customary, with the aim of recreating functioning ecosystems through a combination of large-scale ecological restoration and species introductions. The term ‘rewilding’ has come to apply to this large-scale ecosystem restoration program. While reintroductions of species within their historical ranges have become standard conservation tools, introductions within known paleontological ranges—but outside historical ranges—are more controversial, as is the use of taxon substitutions for extinct species. Here, we consider possible conservation translocations for nine large-bodied taxa in tropical Asia-Pacific. We consider the entire spectrum of conservation translocation strategies as defined by the IUCN in addition to rewilding. The taxa considered are spread across diverse taxonomic and ecological spectra and all are listed as ‘endangered’ or ‘critically endangered’ by the IUCN in our region of study. They all have a written and fossil record that is sufficient to assess past changes in range, as well as ecological and environmental preferences, and the reasons for their decline, and they have all suffered massive range restrictions since the late Pleistocene. General principles, problems, and benefits of translocation strategies are reviewed as case studies. These allowed us to develop a conservation translocation matrix, with taxa scored for risk, benefit, and feasibility. Comparisons between taxa across this matrix indicated that orangutans, tapirs, Tasmanian devils, and perhaps tortoises are the most viable taxa for translocations. However, overall the case studies revealed a need for more data and research for all taxa, and their ecological and environmental needs. Rewilding the Asian-Pacific

  19. A real-time ocean reanalyses intercomparison project in the context of tropical pacific observing system and ENSO monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yan; Wen, C.; Kumar, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Fujii, Y.; Alves, O.; Martin, M.; Yang, X.; Vernieres, G.; Desportes, C.; Lee, T.; Ascione, I.; Gudgel, R.; Ishikawa, I.

    2017-12-01

    An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

  20. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  1. Dissolved iron distribution in the tropical and sub tropical South Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Blain

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Dissolved iron (DFe distributions (<0.2 μm were determined in the upper water column (0–400 m of the south eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific, in October–November 2004. Data were collected along a transect extending from the Marquesas Islands to the Chilean coast with most of the stations located in the south Pacific gyre. The concentrations of DFe presented large variability with highest values observed at both extremities of the transect. In the Chilean upwelling, DFe concentrations ranged between 1.2–3.9 nM. These high values result from inputs from the continental margin and are likely maintained by anoxic conditions in the water corresponding to the Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ. In subsurface waters near the Marquesas, that were also associated with the extension of the OMZ, DFe concentrations varied between 0.15–0.41 nM. Vertical transport of this water by mesoscale activity eastward of the archipelago may explain the dissymmetric east-west distribution of chlorophyll-a evidenced by satellite images. Using the new tracer Fe*=DFe−rFe:P (PO43− we show that DFe was in deficit compared to PO43− resulting from the remineralisation of organic matter. This suggests that the Marquesas islands and the surrounding plateau are not a significant source of DFe. In the gyre, DFe concentrations in the upper 350 m water column were around 0.1 nM and the ferricline was located well below the nitracline. These low concentrations reflect the low input of DFe from the atmosphere, from the ventilation of the upper thermocline with water containing low DFe, and from the low biological activity within this ultra oligotrophic gyre.

  2. Insight into the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature- North American Hydroclimate Connection from an Eastern Tropical North Pacific Coral Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, S. C.; Charles, C. D.; Carriquiry, J. D.

    2015-12-01

    The last few years of record-breaking climate anomalies across North America--a resilient atmospheric ridge and extreme drought over the West Coast, and severe winters across the Midwest and East Coast regions--have been linked to anomalous Pacific sea surface temperatures (Seager et al. 2014, Wang et al. 2014, Hartmann 2015). The synoptic associations prompt important questions on the relation between these unusual phenomena and extreme expressions of known Pacific decadal modes, such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). These questions motivate our pursuit to document multiple realizations of decadal variability in the Pacific-North American region through periods of varied radiative forcing. Here we introduce a 178 year, seasonally resolved Porites coral record from Clarion Island (18N, 115W), the westernmost island of the Revillagigedo Archipelago, a region both highly influenced by NPGO SST and SSS variability and critical for NPGO tropical-extratropical communication via the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (Vimont et al. 2003). When coupled with tree ring records from the western United States (Griffin and Anchukaitis 2014, MacDonald and Case 2005) and coral records from the central tropical Pacific (Cobb et al. 2001), the δ18O signal from the Clarion coral offers an extended framework of coherent continental hydroclimate and oceanic variability across the Pacific basin beyond the instrumental record. Over the last 200 years, we find clear commonality in the timing, magnitude and spatial expression of variability (illustrated through the NADA Atlas, Cook et al. 2004) amongst the proxy records. The strong relationship between Northeastern Pacific Clarion and the Central Pacific Palmyra record with the North American hydroclimate records can be viewed within the mechanistic framework of the NPGO; this framework is then explored over the last millennium across intervals of varied radiative forcing.

  3. Predicting bycatch hotspots for endangered leatherback turtles on longlines in the Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roe, John H; Morreale, Stephen J; Paladino, Frank V; Shillinger, George L; Benson, Scott R; Eckert, Scott A; Bailey, Helen; Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Bograd, Steven J; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Dutton, Peter H; Seminoff, Jeffrey A; Block, Barbara A; Spotila, James R

    2014-02-22

    Fisheries bycatch is a critical source of mortality for rapidly declining populations of leatherback turtles, Dermochelys coriacea. We integrated use-intensity distributions for 135 satellite-tracked adult turtles with longline fishing effort to estimate predicted bycatch risk over space and time in the Pacific Ocean. Areas of predicted bycatch risk did not overlap for eastern and western Pacific nesting populations, warranting their consideration as distinct management units with respect to fisheries bycatch. For western Pacific nesting populations, we identified several areas of high risk in the north and central Pacific, but greatest risk was adjacent to primary nesting beaches in tropical seas of Indo-Pacific islands, largely confined to several exclusive economic zones under the jurisdiction of national authorities. For eastern Pacific nesting populations, we identified moderate risk associated with migrations to nesting beaches, but the greatest risk was in the South Pacific Gyre, a broad pelagic zone outside national waters where management is currently lacking and may prove difficult to implement. Efforts should focus on these predicted hotspots to develop more targeted management approaches to alleviate leatherback bycatch.

  4. On the origin of tropospheric ozone and NOx over the tropical South Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Martin G.; Jacob, Daniel James; Wang, Yuhang; Logan, Jennifer A.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Blake, Donald R.; Blake, Nicola J.; Bradshaw, John D.; Browell, Edward V.; Fenn, Marta A.; Flocke, Frank; Gregory, Gerald L.; Heikes, Brian G.; Sachse, Glen W.; Sandholm, Scott T.

    1999-01-01

    The budgets of ozone and nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) in the tropical South Pacific troposphere are analyzed by photochemical point modeling of aircraft observations at 0–12 km altitude from the Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics A campaign flown in September-October 1996. The model reproduces the observed NO2/NO concentration ratio to within 30% and has similar success in simulating observed concentrations of peroxides ( H2O2, CH3OOH), lending confidence in its use to investigate ozone ...

  5. Considering native and exotic terrestrial reptiles in island invasive species eradication programmes in the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Richard N.; Veitch, C.R.; Clout, Mike N.; Towns, D. R.

    2010-01-01

    Most island restoration projects with reptiles, either as direct beneficiaries of conservation or as indicators of recovery responses, have been on temperate or xeric islands. There have been decades of research, particularly on temperate islands in New Zealand, on the responses of native reptiles to mammal eradications but very few studies in tropical insular systems. Recent increases in restoration projects involving feral mammal eradications in the tropical Pacific have led to several specific challenges related to native and invasive reptiles. This paper reviews these challenges and discusses some potential solutions to them. The first challenge is that the tropical Pacific herpetofauna is still being discovered, described and understood. There is thus incomplete knowledge of how eradication activities may affect these faunas and the potential risks facing critical populations of these species from these eradication actions. The long term benefit of the removal of invasives is beneficial, but the possible short term impacts to small populations on small islands might be significant. The second challenge is that protocols for monitoring the responses of these species are not well documented but are often different from those used in temperate or xeric habitats. Lizard monitoring techniques used in the tropical Pacific are discussed. The third challenge involves invasive reptiles already in the tropical Pacific, some of which could easily spread accidentally through eradication and monitoring operations. The species posing the greatest threats in this respect are reviewed, and recommendations for biosecurity concerning these taxa are made.

  6. Octocoral densities and mortalities in Gorgona Island, Colombia, Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan A. Sánchez

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the decrease of reef organisms in general, it has become essential to study populations that are prone to marine diseases, with the purpose of developing accurate survivorship predictions and in turn alarm on triggers and drivers of disease outbreaks. In this study, we quantified the octocorals of Gorgona island, Tropical Eastern Pacific (Colombia, during 2007 and 2009 documenting a mass mortality occurred during 2008. We recorded 16 octocoral species with densities that ranged between 2 and 30 colonies m-2. Most abundant octocorals were Leptogorgia alba and Pacifigorgia spp. (Gorgoniidae: Octocorallia. During 2009 we noticed a mass mortality involving Pacifigorgia irene, P. adamsi, P. rubicunda and P. eximia, with a reduction of 70% of the colonies between 12 and 20 m in water depth. Around 5% of seafans during 2007 had an epizootic disease similar to aspergillosis, which seems the cause of the mass octocoral mortality. This disease outbreak observed in Gorgona island, and other nearby areas of the Colombian Pacific during 2007-2010, corresponded to extended periods of anomalous elevated seawater surface temperatures and thermal anomalies during the upwelling season of 2008. Constant monitoring of seawater temperatures and octocoral populations are urgently needed in this area to understand the nature of this new disease outbreak. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (Suppl. 1: 209-219. Epub 2014 February 01.

  7. The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Otteraa, Odd Helge [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Gao, Yongqi [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Wang, Huijun [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2012-12-15

    In this study, the effects of volcanic forcing on North Pacific climate variability, on interannual to decadal time scales, are examined using climate model simulations covering the last 600 years. The model used is the Bergen Climate Model, a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. It is found that natural external forcings, such as tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) and variations in total solar irradiance, play an important role in regulating North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV). In response to tropical SVEs the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator temperature gradient is enhanced. The North polar vortex is strengthened, which forces a significant positive Arctic Oscillation. At the same time, dipole zonal wind anomalies associated with strong polar vortex propagate downward from the lower stratosphere. Through positive feedbacks in the troposphere, the surface westerly winds across the central North Pacific are significantly weakened, and positive sea level pressure anomalies are formed in the North Pacific. This anomalous surface circulation results in changes in the net heat fluxes and the oceanic advection across the North Pacific. As a result of this, warm water converges in the subtropical western North Pacific, where the surface waters in addition are heated by significantly reduced latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean. In the eastern and high-latitude North Pacific the ocean loses more heat, and large-scale decreases in sea surface temperatures are found. The overall response of this chain of events is that the North Pacific enters a negative phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and this negative phase of the PDO is maintained for several years. It is thus concluded that the volcanic forcing plays a key role in the phasing of the PDO. The model results furthermore highlight the important role of troposphere-stratosphere coupling, tropical-extratropical teleconnections and extratropical ocean

  8. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

    2017-12-01

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

  9. Mesoscale simulation of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and interannual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jourdain, N.C.; Marchesiello, P.; Menkes, C.E.; Lefevre, J.; Vincent, E.M.; Lengaigne, M.; Chauvin, F.

    The Weather Research and Forecast model at 1/3 degree resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the present climate of the South Pacific. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown...

  10. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  11. Ocean climate coupling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fifty years: implications and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiujun; Murtugudde, Ragu; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The tropical Pacific plays an important role in climate because of its significant air-sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon dioxide (C02), and because of its direct linkage to climate variability. There are two dominant modes of climate variability in the Tropics: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There has been strong evidence of ENSO and PDO impacts on tropical Pacific physics and biogeochemistry, including heat content, ocean circulation (McPhaden and Zhang 2002), and carbon fluxes (Feely ef al. 2006; Wang ef al. 2006). In this study, we apply a basin-scale ocean circulation-ecosystem-carbon model (Wang ef al. 2006) to study the responses of the tropical Pacific ecosystem, biogeochemistry and carbon cycle to climate forcing over the past 50 years. The model produces strong spatial and temporal variability in surface nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass, carbon uptake, and sea-to-air C02 flux, which are largely associated with the ENSO phenomenon. In particular, the size of the tropical Pacific C02 source is large during the ENSO cold phase but small during the ENSO warm phase. There are significant decadal variations in tropical Pacific carbon fluxes, reflecting physical and biogeochemical changes associated with the 1977 and 1997/98 PDO shifts. The 1977 regime shift caused 1 0 C warming in sea surface temperature and -50% reduction in surface iron concentration in the Niho3.4 area, leading to decreased biological activity. While there is a large decrease in phytoplankton growth and biomass, reduction in carbon uptake is smaller than expected, due to phytoplankton photoadaption, which increases the carbon to chlorophyll ratio in the upper euphotic zone and enhances sub-surface production. Photoadaption also results in clearer water near the surface, leading to less heating near the ocean surface and allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the subsurface. Our studies

  12. The Relationships between Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST and Northeast Brazil Monthly Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia; Repelli, Carlos A.; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Kushnir, Yochanan

    1998-04-01

    The monthly patterns of northeast Brazil (NEB) precipitation are analyzed in relation to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, using singular value decomposition. It is found that the relationships between precipitation and SST in both basins vary considerably throughout the rainy season (February-May). In January, equatorial Pacific SST is weakly correlated with precipitation in small areas of southern NEB, but Atlantic SST shows no significant correlation with regional precipitation. In February, Pacific SST is not well related to precipitation, but south equatorial Atlantic SST is positively correlated with precipitation over the northern Nordeste, the latter most likely reflecting an anomalously early (or late) southward migration of the ITCZ precipitation zone. During March, equatorial Pacific SST is negatively correlated with Nordeste precipitation, but no consistent relationship between precipitation and Atlantic SST is found. Atlantic SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are the strongest found among all months or either ocean. Precipitation in the Nordeste is positively correlated with SST in the south tropical Atlantic and negatively correlated with SST in the north tropical Atlantic. These relationships are strong enough to determine the structure of the seasonal mean SST-precipitation correlations, even though the corresponding patterns for the earlier months of the season are quite different. Pacific SST-precipitation correlations for April and May are similar to those for March. Extreme wet (dry) years for the Nordeste occur when both Pacific and Atlantic SST patterns for April and May occur simultaneously. A separate analysis reinforces previous findings in showing that SST in the tropical Pacific and the northern tropical Atlantic are positively correlated and that tropical Pacific-south Atlantic correlations are negligible.Time-lagged analyses show the potential for forecasting either seasonal mean

  13. The Impacts of Daily Surface Forcing in the Upper Ocean over Tropical Pacific: A Numerical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C.-H.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Li, Xiaofan; Lau, William K.-M.; Laszlo, Istvan; Pinker, Rachel T.

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Pacific Ocean is an important region that affects global climate. How the ocean responds to the atmospheric surface forcing (surface radiative, heat and momentum fluxes) is a major topic in oceanographic research community. The ocean becomes warm when more heat flux puts into the ocean. The monthly mean forcing has been used in the past years since daily forcing was unavailable due to the lack of observations. The daily forcing is now available from the satellite measurements. This study investigates the response of the upper ocean over tropical Pacific to the daily atmospheric surface forcing. The ocean surface heat budgets are calculated to determine the important processes for the oceanic response. The differences of oceanic responses between the eastern and western Pacific are intensively discussed.

  14. A change in the relationship between tropical central Pacific SST variability and the extratropical atmosphere around 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jin-Yi; Kim, Seon Tae; Lu, Mong-Ming

    2012-01-01

    A newly released reanalysis dataset covering the period 1979–2009 is analyzed to show that the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical central Pacific is more closely related to the SST variability in the tropical eastern Pacific before 1990 but more closely related to sea level pressure (SLP) variations associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) after 1990. Only during the period after 1990 can the NPO excite large SST variability in the tropical central Pacific. Related to this change, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST anomalies tend to spread from the eastern to central tropical Pacific before 1990 in a pattern resembling that associated with the Eastern Pacific (EP) type of ENSO, but are more closely connected to SST variability in the subtropical north Pacific after 1990 with a pattern resembling that of the Central Pacific (CP) type of ENSO. This study concludes that the increased influence of the NPO on the tropical Pacific is a likely reason for the increasing occurrence of the CP type of ENSO since 1990. An analysis of the mean atmospheric circulation during these two periods suggests that the increased NPO influence is associated with a strengthening Hadley circulation after 1990. (letter)

  15. Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.

    2007-05-01

    A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

  16. Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Delecluse

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A new coupled GCM (SINTEX has been developed. The model is formed by the atmosphere model ECHAM-4 and the ocean model ORCA. The atmospheric and oceanic components are coupled through OASIS. The domain is global and no flux correction is applied. In this study, we describe the ability of the coupled model to simulate the main features of the observed climate and its dominant modes of variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Three long experiments have been performed with different horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component in order to assess a possible impact of the atmosphere model resolution onto the simulated climate. Overall, the mean state is captured reasonably well, though the simulated SST tends to be too warm in the tropical Eastern Pacific and there is a model tendency to produce a double ITCZ. The model gives also a realistic representation of the temperature structure at the equator in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The slope and the structure of the equatorial thermocline are well reproduced. Compared to the observations, the simulated annual cycle appears to be underestimated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas a too pronounced seasonal variation is found in the Central Pacific. The main basic features of the interannual variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are reasonably well reproduced by the model. In the Indian Ocean, the characteristics of the simulated interannual variability are very similar to the results found from the observations. In the Pacific, the modelled ENSO variability appears to be slightly weaker and the simulated period a bit shorter than in the observations. Our results suggest that, both the simulated mean state and interannual variability are generally improved when the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric mode component is increased.

  17. Main factors determining bioerosion patterns on rocky cliffs in a drowned valley estuary in the Colombian Pacific (Eastern Tropical Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobo-Viveros, Alba Marina; Cantera-Kintz, Jaime Ricardo

    2015-10-01

    Bioerosion is an important process that destroys coastal rocks in the tropics. However, the rates at which this process occurs, the organisms involved, and the dynamics of rocky cliffs in tropical latitudes have been less studied than in temperate and subtropical latitudes. To contribute to the knowledge of the bioerosion process in rocky cliffs on the Pacific coast of Colombia (Eastern Tropical Pacific) we compared: 1) boring volume, 2) grain size distribution of the rocks, and 3) rock porosity, across three tidal zones of two cliffs with different wave exposure; these factors were related to the bioeroding community found. We observed that cliffs that were not exposed to wave action (IC, internal cliffs) exhibited high percentages of clays in their grain size composition, and a greater porosity (47.62%) and perforation (15.86%) than exposed cliffs (EC, external cliffs). However, IC also exhibited less diversity and abundance of bioeroding species (22 species and 314 individuals, respectively) compared to the values found in EC (41.11%, 14.34%, 32 and 491, respectively). The most abundant bioeroders were Petrolisthes zacae in IC and Pachygrapsus transversus in EC. Our findings show that the tidal zone is the common factor controlling bioerosion on both cliffs; in addition to the abundance of bioeroders on IC and the number of bioeroding species on EC. The integration of geology, sedimentology, and biology allows us to obtain a more comprehensive view of the patterns and trends in the process of bioerosion.

  18. Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori

    2017-07-19

    Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015-2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015-2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.

  19. Effects of subsurface ocean dynamics on instability waves in the tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Sean P.; Allen, Myles R.; Anderson, David L. T.; Llewellyn-Jones, David T.

    1998-08-01

    Tropical instability waves in a primitive equation model of the tropical Pacific Ocean, forced with analyzed wind stresses updated daily, show unexpectedly close phase correspondence with observation through the latter half of 1992. This suggests that these waves are not pure instabilities developing from infinitesimal disturbances, but that their phases and phase speeds are at least partially determined by the wind stress forcing. To quantify and explain this observation, we perfomed several numerical experiments, which indicate that remotely forced Rossby waves can influence both the phase and phase speed of tropical instability waves. We suggest that a remote wind forcing determines the high model/observation phase correspondence of tropical instability waves through a relatively realistic simulation of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby wave activity.

  20. First record of the blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus (Carcharhiniformes: Carcharhinidae from the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés López-Garro

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The blacktip reef shark Carcharhinus melanopterus, is one of the most common Indo-Pacific reef sharks. On April 29, 2012, a juvenile male blacktip reef shark measuring 89 cm total length (TL, was incidentally caught during a research expedition in Chatham Bay, Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, located in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. This is the first record of the species from Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, and from the Tropical Eastern Pacific.El tiburón punta negra de arrecife, Carcharhinus melanopterus, es uno de los tiburones de arrecife más comunes del Indo-Pacífico. Durante una expedición científica al Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, Pacífico Tropical Oriental, un tiburón punta negra de arrecife fue capturado en Bahía Chatham, Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, el 29 de abril 2012. El espécimen capturado era un macho juvenil de 89 cm. Este es el primer informe de esta especie para el Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica y para el Pacífico Tropical Oriental.

  1. Spatial δ18Osw-SSS relationship across the western tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. M.; Conroy, J. L.; Wyman, A.; Read, D.

    2017-12-01

    Dynamic hydroclimate processes across the western tropical Pacific lead to strong spatial and temporal variability in δ18Osw and sea-surface salinity (SSS) across the western Pacific. Corals in this region have therefore provided key information about past SSS variability, as δ18Osw contributes strongly to coral δ18O across this region. However, uncertainties in the δ18Osw-SSS relationship across space and time often limit quantitative SSS reconstructions from such coral records. Recent work demonstrates considerable variability in the δ18Osw-SSS relationship across the Pacific, which may lead to over- or under-estimation of the contribution of SSS to coral δ18O, particularly across the western tropical Pacific (Conroy et al. 2017). Here we assess the spatial δ18Osw-SSS relationship across the dynamic western tropical Pacific, capitalizing on a transit between Subic Bay, Philippines and Townsville, Australia aboard the International Ocean Discovery program's JOIDES Resolution. Water samples and weather conditions were collected 3 times daily (6:00, 12:00, 18:00) en route, resulting in a network of 47 samples spaced at semi-regular 130-260 km intervals across the western Pacific from 14°N to 18°S. The route also crossed near long-term δ18Osw monitoring sites at Papua New Guinea and Palau (Conroy et al. 2017), allowing us to compare the spatial and temporal δ18Osw-SSS relationships at these sites and test the space-for-time assumption. We present the δ18Osw-SSS relationship across this region, compare the relationship across space and time, and discuss the implications of our results for SSS reconstructions from coral δ18O.

  2. Decrease of tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the western North Pacific since 1960s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Feng; Li, Tim; Liu, Jia; Bi, Mingyu; Peng, Melinda

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1960-2014 shows a step-by-step decrease on interdecadal timescale, in accordance to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The environmental parameters responsible for the interdecadal change of TC genesis frequency were investigated. It was found that vertical wind shear especially the zonal wind shear plays a critical role, while other parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), vertical velocity, divergence, humidity and maximum potential intensity cannot explain the step-by-step decrease of TC genesis frequency. A further diagnosis shows that the interdecadal change of vertical wind shear is caused by SST and associated rainfall pattern changes across the Indo-Pacific Ocean. A stronger warming in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific from 1960-1976 to 1977-1998 led to enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and thus strengthened vertical shear over the key TC genesis region in the WNP. A La Nina-like SST pattern change from 1977-1998 to 1999-2014 led to a strengthened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific, which further enhanced the vertical shear and decreased TC genesis frequency in the WNP.

  3. Extended-range forecast for the temporal distribution of clustering tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim; Bai, Long; Gao, Jianyun

    2017-11-01

    Based on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), an index for clustering tropical cyclogenesis (CTC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) was defined. Around 76 % of total CTC events were generated during the active phase of the CTC index, and 38 % of the total active phase was concurrent with CTC events. For its continuous property, the CTC index was used as the representative predictand for extended-range forecasting the temporal distribution of CTC events. The predictability sources for CTC events were detected via correlation analyses of the previous 35-5-day lead atmospheric fields against the CTC index. The results showed that the geopotential height at different levels and the 200 hPa zonal wind over the global tropics possessed large predictability sources, whereas the predictability sources of other variables, e.g., OLR, zonal wind, and relatively vorticity at 850 hPa and relatively humility at 700 hPa, were mainly confined to the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. Several spatial-temporal projection model (STPM) sets were constructed to carry out the extended-range forecast for the CTC index. By combining the output of STPMs separately conducted for the two dominant modes of intraseasonal variability, e.g., the 10-30 and the 30-80 day mode, useful forecast skill could be achieved for a 30-day lead time. The combined output successfully captured both the 10-30 and 30-80 day mode at least 10 days in advance. With a relatively low rate of false alarm, the STPM achieved hits for 80 % (69 %) of 54 CTC events during 2003-2014 at the 10-day (20-day) lead time, suggesting a practical value of the STPM for real-time forecasting WNP CTC events at an extended range.

  4. Tropical Cyclone Exposure for U.S. waters within the Eastern Pacific Ocean basin, 1900-2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data represent modeled, historical exposure of U.S. offshore and coastal waters to tropical cyclone activity within the Eastern Pacific Ocean basin. BOEM Outer...

  5. An eddy-permitting, dynamically consistent adjoint-based assimilation system for the tropical Pacific: Hindcast experiments in 2000

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim; Cornuelle, B.; Heimbach, P.

    2010-01-01

    An eddy-permitting adjoint-based assimilation system has been implemented to estimate the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The system uses the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's general circulation model and its adjoint. The adjoint method

  6. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Zedler, Sarah E.; Knio, Omar; Jackson, Charles S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference

  7. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, AND CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orbita Roswintiarti

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the quantitative estimates of the effect of large-scale circulations on the sea surface temperature (SST-tropical convection relationship and the effect of SST on the large-scale circulation-convection relationship over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans are presented. Although convection tends to maximize at warm SSTs, increased deep convection is also determined by the divergence (DIV associated with large-scale circulation. An analysis of the relationship between SST and deep convection shows that under subsidence and clear conditions, there is a decrease in convection or increase in Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR at a maximum rate of 3.4 Wm-2 °C-1. In the SST range of 25°C to 29.5°C, a large increase in deep convection (decrease in OLR occurs in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The OLR reduction is found to be a strong function of the large-scale circulation in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Under a weak large-scale circulation, the rate of OLR reduction is about    -3.5 Wm-2 °C-1 to -8.1 Wm-2 °C-1. Under the influence of strong rising motions, the rate can increase to about -12.5 Wm-2 °C-1 for the same SST range. The overall relationship between large-scale circulation and deep convection is nearly linear. A maximum rate of OLR reduction with respect to DIV is -6.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1 in the western Pacific Ocean. It is also found that the DIV-OLR relationship is less dependent on SST. For example, the rate of OLR reduction over the western Pacific Ocean for 26°C < SST £ 27°C is -4.2 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1, while that for 28°C < SST £ 29°C is  -5.1 Wm-2 (10-6 s-1. These results are expected to have a great importance for climate feedback mechanisms associated with clouds and SST and for climate predictability.

  8. An Evaluation of 700 mb Aircraft Reconnaissance Data for Selected Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    ccesearch flights inte both Atlantic and ncr-.hwust Pacific tropical cyclones. Infcrmation providal by these studies expanded and, in some cases, altered...This assumption iaplies t at the curl of the tangential frictional drag is equal to zero. This further implies that the partial derivative of the sur...20) at 30 NM1, prior to the period of most rapidl deepening, Is reflecti at 60 NNl, and possibly at 90 NMl. In the case of super typhoon. rip (Fig

  9. An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, R. H.

    2016-02-01

    Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

  10. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-11-02

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

  11. Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Martín-Rey

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have reported that the tropical Atlantic has had an influence on tropical Pacific interannual variability since the 1970s. This variability is studied in the present work, using simulations from a coupled model in the Indo-Pacific but with observed sea surface temperature (SST prescribed over the Atlantic. The interannual variability is compared with that from a control simulation in which climatological SSTs are prescribed over the Atlantic. Differences in the Pacific mean state and in its variability are found in the forced simulation as a response to a warming in the equatorial Atlantic, characterized by a cooler background state and an increase in the variability over the tropical Pacific. A striking result is that the principal modes of tropical Pacific SST interannual variability show significant differences before and after the 1970s, providing new evidence of the Atlantic influence on the Pacific Ocean. Significant cooling (warming in the equatorial Atlantic could have caused anomalous winds in the central-easter Pacific during the summer since 1970s. The thermocline depth also seems to be altered, triggering the dynamical processes involved in the development of El Niño (La Niña phenomenon in the following winter. An increase in frequency of Niño and Niña events favouring the Central Pacific (CP ones is observed in the last three decades. Further analyses using coupled models are still necessary to help us to understand the causes of this inter-basin connection.

  12. Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

    2011-12-01

    Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century

  13. Ecdysonelactones, Ecdysteroids from the Tropical Eastern Pacific Zoantharian Antipathozoanthus hickmani

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul O. Guillen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Despite a large occurrence, especially over the Pacific Ocean, the chemical diversity of marine invertebrates belonging to the order Zoantharia is largely underexplored. For the two species of the genus Antipathozoanthus no chemical study has been reported so far. The first chemical investigation of Antipathozoanthus hickmani collected at the Marine Protected Area “El Pelado”, Santa Elena, Ecuador, led to the isolation of four new ecdysteroid derivatives named ecdysonelactones. The structures of ecdysonelactones A–D (1–4 were determined based on their spectroscopy data, including 1D and 2D NMR and HRMS. The four compounds of this family of ecdysteroids feature an unprecedented γ-lactone fused at the C-2/C-3 position of ring A. These derivatives exhibited neither antimicrobial nor cytotoxic activities.

  14. First record in the Tropical Eastern Pacific of the exotic species Ficopomatus uschakovi (Polychaeta, Serpulidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolando Bastida Zavala

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The exotic Indo-West-Pacific species, Ficopomatus uschakovi (Polychaeta, Serpulidae is recorded for the first time in the Tropical Eastern Pacific from two sites in La Encrucijada Biosphere Reserve, Chiapas, a coastal lagoon in the Pacific south of Mexico. The means of dispersal of this serpulid species still remains unclear, as the nearest port (Puerto Chiapas is 70 km to the south, and there are no port installations or shrimp cultures in the lagoon. The record of this serpulid species, apparently widely distributed in this coastal lagoon, has implications regarding possible effects on the brackish-water ecosystem, since the invasion event very well may have occurred several years ago. It is recommended that an exhaustive study be carried out in the coastal lagoons of Chiapas to evaluate the real distribution and the effects of this invasive species on the ecosystem. A complete description, including photographs and drawings, is provided.

  15. Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Wan, Xiuquan

    2016-04-15

    Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.

  16. Predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liang, Jianyin [CMA Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, Guangzhou, Guangdong (China); Yang, Song; Kumar, Arun [NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [George Mason University, Department of Climate Dynamics, Fairfax, VA (United States); Zhang, Zuqiang [CMA National Climate Center, Beijing (China)

    2009-06-15

    The predictable patterns of the Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS) are depicted by applying a maximized signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis. The CFS captures the two most dominant modes of observed climate patterns. The first most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the onset years of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with strong precipitation signals over the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans, Southeast Asia, and tropical Asian monsoon regions including the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. The second most dominant mode is characterized by the climate features of the decay years of ENSO, with weakening signals over the western-central Pacific and strengthening signals over the Indian Ocean. The CFS is capable of predicting the most dominant modes several months in advance. It is also highly skillful in capturing the air-sea interaction processes associated with the precipitation features, as demonstrated in sea surface temperature and wind patterns. (orig.)

  17. Modulating Effects of Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies on Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanhong; Fei, Jianfang; Huang, Xiaogang; Cheng, Xiaoping

    2018-01-01

    The impact of mesoscale oceanic eddies on the temporal and spatial characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) response to tropical cyclones is investigated in this study based on composite analysis of cyclone-eddy interactions over the western North Pacific. The occurrence times of maximum cooling, recovery time, and spatial patterns of SST response are specially evaluated. The influence of cold-core eddies (CCEs) renders the mean occurrence time of maximum SST cooling to become about half a day longer than that in eddy-free condition, while warm-core eddies (WCEs) have little effect on this facet. The recovery time of SST cooling also takes longer in presence of CCEs, being overall more pronounced for stronger or slower tropical cyclones. The effect of WCEs on the recovery time is again not significant. The modulation of maximum SST decrease by WCEs for category 2-5 storms is found to be remarkable in the subtropical region but not evident in the tropical region, while the role of CCEs is remarkable in both regions. The CCEs are observed to change the spatial characteristics of SST response, with enhanced SST decrease initially at the right side of storm track. During the recovery period the strengthened SST cooling by CCEs propagates leftward gradually, with a feature similar as both the westward-propagating eddies and the recovery of cold wake. These results underscore the importance of resolving mesoscale oceanic eddies in coupled numerical models to improve the prediction of storm-induced SST response.

  18. Reactive nitrogen over the tropical western Pacific: Influence from lightning and biomass burning during BIBLE A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koike, M.; Kondo, Y.; Kita, K.; Nishi, N.; Liu, S. C.; Blake, D.; Ko, M.; Akutagawa, D.; Kawakami, S.; Takegawa, N.; Zhao, Y.; Ogawa, T.

    2003-02-01

    The Biomass Burning and Lightning Experiment phase A (BIBLE A) aircraft campaign was carried out over the tropical western Pacific in September and October 1998. During this period, biomass burning activity in Indonesia was quite weak. Mixing ratios of NOx and NOy in air masses that had crossed over the Indonesian islands within 3 days prior to the measurement (Indonesian air masses) were systematically higher than those in air masses originating from the central Pacific (tropical air masses). Sixty percent of the Indonesian air masses at 9-13 km (upper troposphere, UT) originated from the central Pacific. The differences in NOy mixing ratio between these two types of air masses were likely due to processes that occurred while air masses were over the Islands. Evidence presented in this paper suggests convection carries material from the surface, and NO is produced from lightning. At altitudes below 3 km (lower troposphere, LT), typical gradient of NOx and NOy to CO (dNOy/dCO and dNOx/dCO) was smaller than that in the biomass burning plumes and in urban areas, suggesting that neither source has a dominant influence. When the CO-NOx and CO-NOy relationships in the UT are compared to the reference relationships chosen for the LT, the NOx and NOy values are higher by 40-60 pptv (80% of NOx) and 70-100 pptv (50% of NOy). This difference is attributed to in situ production of NO by lightning. Analyses using air mass trajectories and geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS) derived cloud height data show that convection over land, which could be accompanied by lightning activity, increases the NOx values, while convection over the ocean generally lowers the NOx level. These processes are found to have a significant impact on the O3 production rate over the tropical western Pacific.

  19. [Terrestrial flora of Malpelo Island, Colombia, Eastern Tropical Pacific].

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Román, Rubén D; López-Victoria, Mateo; Silverstone-Sopkin, Philip A

    2014-03-01

    Malpelo Island is located 380km off the mainland continental coast of Colombia, in the Pacific Ocean. Several geological, ecological, and zoological studies, both marine and terrestrial, have been conducted in this island. Despite some marginal comments on some publications, no single specific survey has been devoted to botany so far. In order to make a floristic inventory of the terrestrial flora of this island, three field trips were made in 2010 to collect vascular plants, mosses, and lichens, as well as data on their distribution within the island. We collected and identified 25 species of lichens, two species of vascular plants and one moss. Lichens were the most diverse group found, including records of four new genera (Endocarpon, Fuscidea, Lecanographa and Verrucaria) and 13 new species for Colombia. The high lichen richness on Malpelo might be explained by their efficient form of asexual reproduction (soredia and isidia), that may have facilitated their transport to the island by migrating birds or wind. Once on the island, it is possible that lichens persist by being chemically protected against herbivores. The great number of new generic and species records for Colombia is explained by the low number of studies in saxicolous lichens conducted so far in the country, particularly on coastal areas and remote islands. Only two species of vascular plants were collected, a grass, Paspalum sp., and a fern, Pityrogramma calomelanos, and both of them correspond to new determinations for Malpelo. A moss species previously reported but with no positive identification was collected and identified as Octoblepharum albidum. Other species previously reported, for example, some species of shrubs, were not observed. The low number of vascular plants is probably due to a combination of soil conditions and herbivory by land crabs. This study is the first complete inventory of the flora of Malpelo and is a starting and reference point for future comparisons among islands in

  20. Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Hsiao-Chung; Chen, Pang-Cheng; Elsberry, Russell L.

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during 1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area. The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts. Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.

  1. Physical and meteorological delayed-mode full-resolution data from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array in the Equatorial Pacific

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array of moored buoys spans the tropical Pacific. Moorings within the array measure surface meteorological and upper-ocean...

  2. Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Bhatt, Bhuwan C.; Duane, Gregory S.

    2017-12-01

    The supermodel strategy interactively combines several models to outperform the individual models comprising it. A key advantage of the approach is that nonlinear improvements can be achieved, in contrast to the linear weighted combination of individual unconnected models. This property is found in a climate supermodel constructed by coupling two versions of an atmospheric model differing only in their convection scheme to a single ocean model. The ocean model receives a weighted combination of the momentum and heat fluxes. Optimal weights can produce a supermodel with a basic state similar to observations: a single Intertropical Convergence zone (ITCZ), with a western Pacific warm pool and an equatorial cold tongue. This is in stark contrast to the erroneous double ITCZ pattern simulated by both of the two stand-alone coupled models. By varying weights, we develop a conceptual scheme to explain how combining the momentum fluxes of the two different atmospheric models affects equatorial upwelling and surface wind feedback so as to give a realistic basic state in the tropical Pacific. In particular, we propose a mechanism based on the competing influences of equatorial zonal wind and off-equatorial wind stress curl in driving equatorial upwelling in the coupled models. Our results show how nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interaction is essential in combining these two effects to build different sea surface temperature structures, some of which are realistic. They also provide some insight into observed and modelled tropical Pacific climate.

  3. How Ocean Color Influences the Interplay Between Annual and Interannual Tropical Pacific Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2010-12-01

    While the basic mechanisms responsible for ENSO have long been known, many details still evade our understanding. Since the behavior of the real climate system appears to be highly sensitive to such details, however, our ability to model, let alone predict it with any confidence has so far been rather restricted. Not only can small perturbations in many state variables lead to strongly amplified responses, but also do spatial and temporal scales of variability rarely occur in isolation from each other. Both points are born out in the study by Anderson et al. (2009), who removed surface chlorophyll in different regions of the tropical (but mostly off-equatorial) Pacific in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model. Different removal patterns lead to large differences in the amplitudes of both ENSO and the equatorial annual cycle. Anderson et al.’s analysis focuses on ENSO and reveals that the transmission of off-equatorial perturbations to the equator happens mainly through a changed atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Here, we analyze the same data with respect to the annual cycle and how it interacts with ENSO. Guilyardi (2006) reports that observations and models alike show a zero-sum-type behavior of annual and ENSO-scale variability; increased spectral power in the annual band means decreased power in the ENSO band and vice versa. This is not the case for the different patterns of chlorophyll removal in our model, and hence it appears that this removal changes a fundamental part of its mean state. The dynamics of the annual cycle are likely influenced by oceanic meridional temperature advection, which provides another possible route for off-to-equatorial signal propagation. A common aspect of the tropical annual cycle in most coupled climate models is the presence of a double ITCZ instead of a single north-shifted one. Even though this appears to be unrelated to (albeit influenced by) the changes in ocean color, our model exhibits a much improved

  4. Role of sea surface wind stress forcing on transport between Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Q.

    Using an Indian-Pacific Ocean Circulation Model (IPOM) a simulation study on the Transports of between Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean such as Indonesian Through flow (ITF) has been done. IPOM covered the area 25°E-70°W, 35°S-60°N. There are 31 levels in the vertical with 22 levels upper 400m in it. The horizontal resolution is 1/3° lat x 1.5° lon between 10°S and 10°N. The coastline and ocean topography of IPOM is prepared from Scripps topography data on 1x1°grid. Forcing IPOM with monthly observational wind stress in 1990-1999 the interannual variation of sea temperature has been reproduced well, not only on El Nino in the Pacific but also on Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Therefore, the oceanic circulations in the tropical ocean are reasonable. The analyses of the oceanic circulations from the simulations suggest that the transport southward through Makassar Strait is the primary route of thermocline water masses from the North Pacific to the Indonesian sea. The transport westward through Bali-Western Australian Transect (BWAT, at 117.5E) can be thought as the final output of ITF through the archipelago to Indian Ocean. The transport westward through BWAT is in 8-12S above 150m, its core centered near surface 10S, which looks like a jet. The westward velocity is more than 50 cm/s. The transport shows significant seasonal and interannual variations. The maximum is in Jul-Oct, minimum in Jan-Mar. These results are consistent with some observation basically. The correlation analyses indict that the variations of transport westward is related with the southeasterly anomaly in the east tropical Indian ocean. The transport variation lags wind anomaly about 3 months. The correlation coefficient is more than 0.6. The transport is strong during IOD, for example in 1994 and 1997. The variations are also related with the northwesterly anomaly in the center equatorial Pacific and the easterly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The transport is strong in most ENSO

  5. Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

    2017-09-01

    Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

  6. Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation and Structure Change in TCS-08

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    cyclones often transition to a fast-moving and rapidly- developing extratropical cyclone that may contain gale-, storm -, or hurricane-force winds...there is a need to improve understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. The structural evolution...of the transition from a tropical to an extratropical circulation involves rapid changes to the wind, cloud, and precipitation patterns that

  7. Oxygen Isotope Composition of Phytoliths From Australian Tropical Forests: Towards a New Paleoclimate Tool for the Tropical Pacific area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandre, A.; Crespin, J.; Sonzogni, C.; Sylvestre, F.; Hilbert, D.

    2008-12-01

    Obtaining new continental δ18Ophytolith records from the tropical pacific area would help to further investigate 1) synchronicity between vegetation and climate changes, and 2) climate interactions between ocean and continent through comparison with oceanic reference δ18O records. In this aim, we produce a calibration of the thermo-dependant relationship between δ18Ophytolith and δ18Orainfall for present phytolith assemblages from Queensland rainforests (Australia). Phytoliths were extracted from soil humic horizons sampled along several elevation, temperature and rainfall gradients. Phytolith samples of 1.6mg were analyzed using a newly calibrated IR-laser fluorination technique, performed after a controlled isotopic exchanged procedure. The long term reproducibility on δ18O measurements is sap should equal to δ18Osoil water. Moreover, because relative humidity is close to 100%, soil evaporation is weak and δ18Osoil water is assumed to be similar to δ18Orainfall. The obtained thermo-dependant relationship between δ18Ophytolith and δ18O mean monthly rainfall of the wet season (r=0.68) is close to the equilibrium fractionation equations obtained for quartz and diatoms. Effects of forest fires on phytoliths dehydration and δ18Ophytolith are tested through heating experiments. Provided that phytolith assemblages present a morphological tropical forest pattern, δ18Ophytolith records from sediments can now be interpreted in term of δ18Osoil water, or δ18Orainfall (provided that no soil evaporation is assumed), and temperature changes. This is a first step in further investigating synchronicity between vegetation changes, global climate changes and ENSO activity in the West-Pacific area.

  8. The impact of summertime north Indian Ocean SST on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jiayu; Wu, Qiaoyan; Guo, Yipeng; Zhao, Sen

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we investigate the impact of interannual variability of boreal summertime (June-September) north Indian Ocean (NIO) sea surface temperature (SST) on the distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) using observational datasets. In the boreal summers with warm (cold) SST in the NIO, fewer (more) than normal TCs form over the entire WNP, with fewer (more) TCs forming north of 10°N and more (fewer) TCs forming south of 10°N. The warm (cold) SST in the NIO induces anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) vorticity north of 10°N and cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity south of 10°N, which contributes to the meridional seesaw-like distribution of WNP TC genesis. This study provides a new perspective to understand TC activities over the WNP and may help seasonal TC prediction.

  9. Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

    2010-05-01

    The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides

  10. Soundscapes from a Tropical Eastern Pacific reef and a Caribbean Sea reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staaterman, E.; Rice, A. N.; Mann, D. A.; Paris, C. B.

    2013-06-01

    Underwater soundscapes vary due to the abiotic and biological components of the habitat. We quantitatively characterized the acoustic environments of two coral reef habitats, one in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (Panama) and one in the Caribbean (Florida Keys), over 2-day recording durations in July 2011. We examined the frequency distribution, temporal variability, and biological patterns of sound production and found clear differences. The Pacific reef exhibited clear biological patterns and high temporal variability, such as the onset of snapping shrimp noise at night, as well as a 400-Hz daytime band likely produced by damselfish. In contrast, the Caribbean reef had high sound levels in the lowest frequencies, but lacked clear temporal patterns. We suggest that acoustic measures are an important element to include in reef monitoring programs, as the acoustic environment plays an important role in the ecology of reef organisms at multiple life-history stages.

  11. Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2017-02-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

  12. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  13. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Nino

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Collins, M.; An, S.; Cai, W.; Ganachaud, A.; Guilyardi, E; Jin, F.F.; Jochum, M.; Lengaigne, M.; Power, S.; Timmermann, A.; Vecchi, G.; Wittenberg, A.

    Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, New Jersey 08540-6649, USA. *e-mail: matthew.collins@metoffice.gov.uk ngeo_868_JUN10.indd 391 19/5/10 11:25:42 © 20 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved10 392 nature geoscience | VOL 3... | JUNE 2010 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience review article NaTUrE gEOSciENcE doi: 10.1038/ngeo868 changes in mean climate To assess and understand changes in the mean state of the tropical Pacific, we separate the time-averaged seasonally varying...

  14. Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Dayan, H.

    (Shankar and Shetye 1999, Unnikrishnan and Shankar 2007) as well as in the basin scale (Lee and McPhaden 2008, Cheng et al. 2008, Han et al. 2010) have been previously investigated, the picture of decadal/multi-decadal variability in the tropical Indo... dynamics along the rim of the northern Indian Ocean (McCreary et al. 1993, McCreary et al. 1996). At intra- seasonal timescales, the Indo-Pacific warm pool region is home to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, an eastward moving energetic fluctuation of deep...

  15. Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vincent, E.M.; Lengaigne, M.; Menkes, C.E.; Jourdain, N.C.; Marchesiello, P.; Madec, G.

    SPCZ con- trols the large scale environment favouring cyclonic activity have not yet been investigated. In addition, the characteristics of El Nin˜o events vary widely from one event to another, and the influence of this diversity on the SPCZ location... which the classification is performed) accu- rately summarizes the large-scale precipitation variability in the tropical South Pacific (on which the EOFs are con- structed). The same AHC applied to PC1–PC2 coordinates instead of latW–latE indices gives...

  16. Seeking deep convective parameter updates that improve tropical Pacific climatology in CESM using Pareto fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Despite increasing complexity and process representation in global climate models (GCMs), accurate climate simulation is limited by uncertainties in sub-grid scale model physics, where cloud processes and precipitation occur, and the interaction with large-scale dynamics. Identifying highly sensitive parameters and constraining them against observations is therefore a valuable step in narrowing uncertainty. However, changes in parameterizations often improve some variables or aspects of the simulation while degrading others. This analysis addresses means of improving GCM simulation of present-day tropical Pacific climate in the face of these tradeoffs. Focusing on the deep convection scheme in the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1, four parameters were systematically sampled, and a metamodel or model emulator was used to reconstruct the parameter space of this perturbed physics ensemble. Using this metamodel, a Pareto front is constructed to visualize multiobjective tradeoffs in model performance, and results highlight the most important aspects of model physics as well as the most sensitive parameter ranges. For example, parameter tradeoffs arise in the tropical Pacific where precipitation cannot improve without sea surface temperature getting worse. Tropical precipitation sensitivity is found to be highly nonlinear for low values of entrainment in convecting plumes, though it is fairly insensitive at the high end of the plausible range. Increasing the adjustment timescale for convective closure causes the centroid of tropical precipitation to vary as much as two degrees latitude, highlighting the effect these physics can have on large-scale features of the hydrological cycle. The optimization procedure suggests that simultaneously increasing the maximum downdraft mass flux fraction and the adjustment timescale can yield improvements to surface temperature and column water vapor without degrading the simulation of precipitation. These

  17. Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur

    2018-01-01

    The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Niño southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.

  18. Modes of ocean variability in the tropical Pacific as derived from GEOSAT altimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zou Jiansheng

    1993-01-01

    Satellite-derived (GEOSAT) sea surface height anomalies for the period November 1986 to August 1989 were investigated in order to extract the dominant modes of climate variability in the tropical Pacific. Four modes are identified by applying the POP technique. The first mode has a time scale of about 3 months and can be identified with the first baroclinic equatorial Kelvin wave mode. The second mode has a time scale of about six months and describes the semi-annual cycle in tropical Pacific sea level. Equatorial wave propagation is also crucial for this mode. The third mode is the annual cycle which is dominated by Ekman dynamics. Wave propagation or reflection are found to be unimportant. The fourth mode is associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The ENSO mode is found to be consistent with the 'delayed action oscillator' scenario. The results are substantiated by a companion analysis of the sea surface height variability simulated with an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) forced by observed wind stresses for the period 1961 to 1989. The modal decomposition of the sea level variability is found to be similar to that derived from the GEOSAT data. The high consistency between the satellite and the model data indicates the high potential value of satellite altimetry for climate modeling and forecasting. (orig.)

  19. Expansion and Contraction of the Indo-Pacific Tropical Rain Belt over the Last Three Millennia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F; Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Wanamaker, Alan D; Lachniet, Matthew S; Villarini, Gabriele; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J; Passaro, Kristian J; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F

    2016-09-29

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial and marine biodiversity and home to 40% of people on Earth. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the LIA, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Here we show that the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted numerous times over multi-decadal to centennial scales during the last 3,000 yr. By integrating precisely-dated stalagmite records of tropical hydroclimate from southern China with a newly enhanced stalagmite time series from northern Australia, our study reveals a previously unidentified coherence between the austral and boreal summer monsoon. State-of-the-art climate model simulations of the last millennium suggest these are linked to changes in the structure of the regional manifestation of the atmosphere's meridional circulation.

  20. Expansion and Contraction of the Indo-Pacific Tropical Rain Belt over the Last Three Millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denniston, Rhawn F.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Wanamaker, Alan D.; Lachniet, Matthew S.; Villarini, Gabriele; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor J.; Passaro, Kristian J.; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William F.

    2016-09-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial and marine biodiversity and home to 40% of people on Earth. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the LIA, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Here we show that the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted numerous times over multi-decadal to centennial scales during the last 3,000 yr. By integrating precisely-dated stalagmite records of tropical hydroclimate from southern China with a newly enhanced stalagmite time series from northern Australia, our study reveals a previously unidentified coherence between the austral and boreal summer monsoon. State-of-the-art climate model simulations of the last millennium suggest these are linked to changes in the structure of the regional manifestation of the atmosphere’s meridional circulation.

  1. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  2. Relevance of Indian Summer Monsoon and its Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Drivers for the Kharif Crop Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amat, Hemadri Bhusan; Karumuri, Ashok

    2017-12-01

    While the Indian agriculture has earlier been dependent on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), a multifold increase in irrigation and storage facilities raise a question whether the ISMR is still as relevant. We revisit this question using the latest observational climate datasets as well as the crop production data and find that the ISMR is still relevant for the Kharif crop production (KCP). In addition, in the recent changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific driver evolutions and frequency, particularly more frequent occurrence of the ENSO Modokis in place of the canonical ENSOs, we carry out a correlation analysis to estimate the impact of the various Indo-Pacific climate drivers on the rainfall of individual Indian states for the period 1998-2013, for which crop production data for the most productive Indian states, namely West Bengal, Odisha, United Andhra Pradesh (UAP), Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are available. The results suggest that the KCP of the respective states are significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall at the 95-99% confidence levels. Importantly, we find that the NINO 3.4 and ENSO Modoki indices have a statistically significant correlation with the KCP of most of the Indian states, particularly in states such as UAP and Karnataka, through induction of anomalous local convergence/divergence, well beyond the equatorial Indian Ocean. The KCP of districts in UAP also has a significant response to all the climate drivers, having implication for prediction of local crop yield.

  3. Predicting tropical plant physiology from leaf and canopy spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, Christopher E; Asner, Gregory P; Martin, Roberta E

    2011-02-01

    A broad regional understanding of tropical forest leaf photosynthesis has long been a goal for tropical forest ecologists, but it has remained elusive due to difficult canopy access and high species diversity. Here we develop an empirical model to predict sunlit, light-saturated, tropical leaf photosynthesis using leaf and simulated canopy spectra. To develop this model, we used partial least squares (PLS) analysis on three tropical forest datasets (159 species), two in Hawaii and one at the biosphere 2 laboratory (B2L). For each species, we measured light-saturated photosynthesis (A), light and CO(2) saturated photosynthesis (A(max)), respiration (R), leaf transmittance and reflectance spectra (400-2,500 nm), leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll a and b, carotenoids, and leaf mass per area (LMA). The model best predicted A [r(2) = 0.74, root mean square error (RMSE) = 2.9 μmol m(-2) s(-1))] followed by R (r(2) = 0.48), and A(max) (r(2) = 0.47). We combined leaf reflectance and transmittance with a canopy radiative transfer model to simulate top-of-canopy reflectance and found that canopy spectra are a better predictor of A (RMSE = 2.5 ± 0.07 μmol m(-2) s(-1)) than are leaf spectra. The results indicate the potential for this technique to be used with high-fidelity imaging spectrometers to remotely sense tropical forest canopy photosynthesis.

  4. Interhemispheric leakage of isotopically heavy nitrate in the eastern tropical Pacific during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichevin, Laetitia E.; Ganeshram, Raja S.; Francavilla, Stephen; Arellano-Torres, Elsa; Pedersen, Tom F.; Beaufort, Luc

    2010-02-01

    We present new high-resolution N isotope records from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Nicaragua Basin spanning the last 50-70 ka. The Tehuantepec site is situated within the core of the north subtropical denitrification zone while the Nicaragua site is at the southern boundary. The δ15N record from Nicaragua shows an “Antarctic” timing similar to denitrification changes observed off Peru-Chile but is radically different from the northern records. We attribute this to the leakage of isotopically heavy nitrate from the South Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) into the Nicaragua Basin. The Nicaragua record leads the other eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) records by about 1000 years because denitrification peaks in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) before denitrification starts to increase in the Northern Hemisphere OMZ, i.e., during warming episodes in Antarctica. We find that the influence of the heavy nitrate leakage from the ETSP is still noticeable, although attenuated, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec record, particularly at the end of the Heinrich events, and tends to alter the recording of millennial timescale denitrification changes in the ETNP. This implies (1) that sedimentary δ15N records from the southern parts of the ETNP cannot be used straightforwardly as a proxy for local denitrification and (2) that denitrification history in the ETNP, like in the Arabian Sea, is synchronous with Greenland temperature changes. These observations reinforce the conclusion that on millennial timescales during the last ice age, denitrification in the ETNP is strongly influenced by climatic variations that originated in the high-latitude North Atlantic region, while commensurate changes in Southern Ocean hydrography more directly, and slightly earlier, affected oxygen concentrations in the ETSP. Furthermore, the δ15N records imply ongoing physical communication across the equator in the shallow subsurface continuously over the last 50-70 ka.

  5. Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

    2017-12-01

    The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

  6. Plant invasions in protected areas of tropical pacific islands, with special reference to Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, R. Flint; Meyer, Jean-Yves; Loope, Lloyd L.

    2013-01-01

    Isolated tropical islands are notoriously vulnerable to plant invasions. Serious management for protection of native biodiversity in Hawaii began in the 1970s, arguably at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Concerted alien plant management began there in the 1980s and has in a sense become a model for protected areas throughout Hawaii and Pacific Island countries and territories. We review the relative successes of their strategies and touch upon how their experience has been applied elsewhere. Protected areas in Hawaii are fortunate in having relatively good resources for addressing plant invasions, but many invasions remain intractable, and invasions from outside the boundaries continue from a highly globalised society with a penchant for horticultural novelty. There are likely few efforts in most Pacific Islands to combat alien plant invasions in protected areas, but such areas may often have fewer plant invasions as a result of their relative remoteness and/or socio-economic development status. The greatest current needs for protected areas in this region may be for establishment of yet more protected areas, for better resources to combat invasions in Pacific Island countries and territories, for more effective control methods including biological control programme to contain intractable species, and for meaningful efforts to address prevention and early detection of potential new invaders.

  7. Typhoon Rammasun-Induced Near-Inertial Oscillations Observed in the Tropical Northwestern Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eung Kim

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind-induced near-inertial oscillations (NIOs have been known to propagate their energy downward and equatorward, yet few observations have confirmed this in tropical regions. Using measurements from a moored ADCP in the tropical northwestern Pacific, we report an energetic NIO event associated with Typhoon Rammasun in May 2008, when an anti-cyclonic warm eddy existed around the mooring site. Our analyses reveal that the anti-cyclonic eddy traps the NIO energy at two layers around 120 and 210 m where the buoyancy frequency show high values. The NIO energy continuously decays at layers below its maximum at 210 m, and disappears at depths below the thermocline. During their propagation from 137 to 649 stretched-meter depths (equivalent to 100 - 430 m, NIOs shift their frequencies from 0.92f to 1.05f probably due to the effective f, which changes its magnitude from smaller to larger than local inertial frequency f in the anti-cyclonic eddy. In addition, their vertical energy propagation becomes faster from 0.17 to 0.64 mm s-1. Decomposition of downward and upward NIO energy propagation shows that the typhoon-induced NIOs remain 29% of their energy in the upper layer, and transfer 71% to the subsurface layers. Our results suggest that typhoon-induced NIOs interacting with meso-scale eddies can play an important role in providing the energy source available for ocean mixing in the tropical regions.

  8. Clouds, radiation, and the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature in the tropical Western Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, P.J.; Clayson, C.A.; Curry, J.A. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    In the tropical Western Pacific (TWP) Ocean, the clouds and the cloud-radiation feedback can only be understood in the context of air/sea interactions and the ocean mixed layer. Considerable interest has been shown in attempting to explain why sea surface temperature (SST) rarely rises above 30{degrees}C, and gradients of the SST. For the most part, observational studies that address this issue have been conducted using monthly cloud and SST data, and the focus has been on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. For the unstable tropical atmosphere, using monthly averaged data misses a key feedback between clouds and SST that occurs on the cloud-SST coupling time scale, which was estimated to be 3-6 days for the unstable tropical atmosphere. This time scale is the time needed for a change in cloud properties, due to the change of ocean surface evaporation caused by SST variation, to feed back to the SST variation, to feed back to the SST through its effect on the surface heat flux. This paper addresses the relationship between clouds, surface radiation flux and SST of the TWP ocean over the diurnal cycle.

  9. Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Rojo

    Full Text Available The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands.

  10. Hydrology Affects Environmental and Spatial Structuring of Microalgal Metacommunities in Tropical Pacific Coast Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo, Carmen; Mesquita-Joanes, Francesc; Monrós, Juan S; Armengol, Javier; Sasa, Mahmood; Bonilla, Fabián; Rueda, Ricardo; Benavent-Corai, José; Piculo, Rubén; Segura, M Matilde

    2016-01-01

    The alternating climate between wet and dry periods has important effects on the hydrology and therefore on niche-based processes of water bodies in tropical areas. Additionally, assemblages of microorganism can show spatial patterns, in the form of a distance decay relationship due to their size or life form. We aimed to test spatial and environmental effects, modulated by a seasonal flooding climatic pattern, on the distribution of microalgae in 30 wetlands of a tropical dry forest region: the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Three surveys were conducted corresponding to the beginning, the highest peak, and the end of the hydrological year during the wet season, and species abundance and composition of planktonic and benthic microalgae was determined. Variation partitioning analysis (as explained by spatial distance or environmental factors) was applied to each seasonal dataset by means of partial redundancy analysis. Our results show that microalgal assemblages were structured by spatial and environmental factors depending on the hydrological period of the year. At the onset of hydroperiod and during flooding, neutral effects dominated community dynamics, but niche-based local effects resulted in more structured algal communities at the final periods of desiccating water bodies. Results suggest that climate-mediated effects on hydrology can influence the relative role of spatial and environmental factors on metacommunities of microalgae. Such variability needs to be accounted in order to describe accurately community dynamics in tropical coastal wetlands.

  11. Prediction of North Pacific Height Anomalies During Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kai-Chih, T.; Barnes, E. A.; Maloney, E. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) creates strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical-extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data (MERRA and ERA-Interim) and ECMWF ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anoma- lies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10-13 day limits. Furthermore, we also examine the phase dependency of teleconnection robustness by using Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) and the result is consistent with the ensemble hindcasts : the anomalous heating of MJO phase 2 (phase 6) can consistently generate positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies around the extratropical Pacific with a lead of 15-20 days, while other phases are more sensitive to the variaion of the mean state.

  12. Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

  13. Role of the meridional dipole of SSTA and associated cross-equatorial flow in the tropical eastern Pacific in terminating the 2014 El Niño development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yi-Kai; Chen, Lin; Hong, Chi-Cherng; Li, Tim; Chen, Cheng-Ta; Wang, Lu

    2018-03-01

    In the boreal spring of 2014, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions were favorable for an El Niño's development. It was predicted that in 2014, a super El Niño or at least a regular El Niño with normal magnitude, would initiate. However, the growth rate of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the equatorial eastern Pacific suddenly declined in the boreal summer. The physical processes responsible for the termination of the 2014 El Niño were addressed in this study. We hypothesized that a meridional dipole of SSTA, characterized by a pronounced warm SSTA over the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and cold SSTA over the eastern South Pacific (ESP), played a crucial role in blocking the 2014 El Niño's development. The observational analysis revealed that the meridional dipole of SSTA and the relevant anomalous cross-equatorial flow in the tropical eastern Pacific, induced anomalous westward ({u^' }0) currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific, leading to negative anomalous zonal advection term (- {u^' }partial \\overline T /partial xpartial \\overline T /partial znegative SSTA tendency in the boreal summer, and thus killed off the budding 2014 El Niño. The idealized numerical experiments further confirmed that the 2014 El Niño's development could be suppressed by the meridional dipole of SSTA, and both the ENP pole and ESP pole make a contribution.

  14. Sea level variability in the eastern tropical Pacific as observed by TOPEX and Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giese, Benjamin S.; Carton, James A.; Holl, Lydia J.

    1994-01-01

    Sea surface height measurements from the TOPEX altimeter and dynamic height from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TOGA TAO) moorings are used to explore sea level variability in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Afetr the annual harmonic is removed, there are two distinct bands of variability: one band is centered at 5 deg N to 7 deg N and extends from 165 deg W to 110 deg W, and the other band is centered at 10 deg N to 12 deg N and extends from 120 deg W to the coast of Central America. The correspondence between the two independent observation data sets at 5 deg N is excellent with correlations of about 90%. The variability at 5 deg-7 deg N is identified as instability waves formed just south of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during the months of July and March. Wave amplitudes are largest in the range of longitudes 160 deg-140 deg W, where they can exceed 10 cm. The waves disappear when the equatorial current system weakens, during the months of March and May. The variability at 11 deg N in 1993 has the form of anticyclone eddies. These eddies propagate westward at a speed of about 17 cm/s, consistent with the dispersion characteristics of free Rossby waves. The eddies are shown to have their origin near the coast of central America during northern fall and winter. Their formation seems to result from intense wind bursts across the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo which generate strong anticyclonic ocean eddies. The disappearance of the eddies in the summer of 1993 coincidences with the seasonal intensification of equatorial currents. Thus the variability at 11 deg N has very little overlap in time with the variability at 5 deg N.

  15. Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welker, C.; Faust, E.

    2013-01-01

    The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr - driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

  16. Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Welker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The western North Pacific (WNP is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs. However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower by 14% (9% in the positive (negative phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

  17. Habitat availability and heterogeneity and the indo-pacific warm pool as predictors of marine species richness in the tropical Indo-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Carpenter, Kent E; Etnoyer, Peter J; Moretzsohn, Fabio

    2013-01-01

    Range overlap patterns were observed in a dataset of 10,446 expert-derived marine species distribution maps, including 8,295 coastal fishes, 1,212 invertebrates (crustaceans and molluscs), 820 reef-building corals, 50 seagrasses, and 69 mangroves. Distributions of tropical Indo-Pacific shore fishes revealed a concentration of species richness in the northern apex and central region of the Coral Triangle epicenter of marine biodiversity. This pattern was supported by distributions of invertebrates and habitat-forming primary producers. Habitat availability, heterogeneity, and sea surface temperatures were highly correlated with species richness across spatial grains ranging from 23,000 to 5,100,000 km(2) with and without correction for autocorrelation. The consistent retention of habitat variables in our predictive models supports the area of refuge hypothesis which posits reduced extinction rates in the Coral Triangle. This does not preclude support for a center of origin hypothesis that suggests increased speciation in the region may contribute to species richness. In addition, consistent retention of sea surface temperatures in models suggests that available kinetic energy may also be an important factor in shaping patterns of marine species richness. Kinetic energy may hasten rates of both extinction and speciation. The position of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to the east of the Coral Triangle in central Oceania and a pattern of increasing species richness from this region into the central and northern parts of the Coral Triangle suggests peripheral speciation with enhanced survival in the cooler parts of the Coral Triangle that also have highly concentrated available habitat. These results indicate that conservation of habitat availability and heterogeneity is important to reduce extinction of marine species and that changes in sea surface temperatures may influence the evolutionary potential of the region.

  18. Habitat availability and heterogeneity and the indo-pacific warm pool as predictors of marine species richness in the tropical Indo-Pacific.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonnell C Sanciangco

    Full Text Available Range overlap patterns were observed in a dataset of 10,446 expert-derived marine species distribution maps, including 8,295 coastal fishes, 1,212 invertebrates (crustaceans and molluscs, 820 reef-building corals, 50 seagrasses, and 69 mangroves. Distributions of tropical Indo-Pacific shore fishes revealed a concentration of species richness in the northern apex and central region of the Coral Triangle epicenter of marine biodiversity. This pattern was supported by distributions of invertebrates and habitat-forming primary producers. Habitat availability, heterogeneity, and sea surface temperatures were highly correlated with species richness across spatial grains ranging from 23,000 to 5,100,000 km(2 with and without correction for autocorrelation. The consistent retention of habitat variables in our predictive models supports the area of refuge hypothesis which posits reduced extinction rates in the Coral Triangle. This does not preclude support for a center of origin hypothesis that suggests increased speciation in the region may contribute to species richness. In addition, consistent retention of sea surface temperatures in models suggests that available kinetic energy may also be an important factor in shaping patterns of marine species richness. Kinetic energy may hasten rates of both extinction and speciation. The position of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to the east of the Coral Triangle in central Oceania and a pattern of increasing species richness from this region into the central and northern parts of the Coral Triangle suggests peripheral speciation with enhanced survival in the cooler parts of the Coral Triangle that also have highly concentrated available habitat. These results indicate that conservation of habitat availability and heterogeneity is important to reduce extinction of marine species and that changes in sea surface temperatures may influence the evolutionary potential of the region.

  19. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James

    2018-01-01

    Over the past 60 years, the climate of East Antarctica cooled while portions of West Antarctica were among the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. The East Antarctic cooling is attributed to a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and a strengthening of the westerlies, while West Antarctic warming is tied to zonally asymmetric circulation changes forced by the tropics. This study finds recent (post-1979) surface cooling of East Antarctica during austral autumn to also be tied to tropical forcing, namely, an increase in La Niña events. The recent increase in La Niña conditions forces a Rossby wave into the Southern Hemisphere that increases anticyclonic circulation over the South Atlantic. The South Atlantic anticyclone is associated with cold air advection, weakened northerlies, and increased sea ice concentrations across the western East Antarctic coast, which has increased the rate of cooling at Novolazarevskaya and Syowa stations after 1979. This enhanced cooling over western East Antarctica is tied more broadly to a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern across East Antarctica during autumn that is consistent with a tropically forced Rossby wave rather than a SAM pattern; the positive SAM pattern is associated with ubiquitous cooling across East Antarctica, which is not seen in temperature observations after 1979. We conclude that El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related circulation anomalies, particularly zonal asymmetries that locally enhance meridional wind, are an important component of East Antarctic climate variability during autumn, and future changes in tropical Pacific climate will likely have implications for East Antarctica.

  20. Relationships between the Tropical Pacific and the Southern California Current productivity at different timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abella-Gutiérrez, J. L.; Herguera, J. C.

    2016-02-01

    The influence of Tropical Pacific in climate during the Common Era has been largely debated due to the lack of agreement between proxies. Some records suggest a La Niña-like conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and El Niño-like conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (i.e. Graham et al., 2007), but other records suggest the contrary (i.e. Conroy et al., 2008). Here we present a 2.3Ky biogenic based record from San Lázaro Basin that, in its different modes of variability, contains both visions. Furthermore, these proxies share a centennial mode of variability that dominates the last millennium and connects the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) with the Western North America Drought Area Index (WNA-DAI) through variations in the thermocline.San Lázaro Basin (SLB) is a suboxic basin located in the southern dynamic boundary of the California Current System (CCS). During La Niña-like conditions, the intensification of the trade winds increase the Ekman transport and the invasion of subartic waters, with the result of a shoaled thermocline and enhanced ecosystem productivity. When the winds relax, El Niño-like conditions became, and the intrusion of warm stratified water from the tropical and subtropical regions plummeted the productivity and a coccolitophorid based ecosystem dominates. The opposite relation between Carbonates and Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in SLB sediments confirms this observations. A significant positive correlation between XRF measurements of Br/Si with TOC and Ca counts with Carbonates, allows us to study SCC variability from interannual to centennial resolution.The Spectral Analysis of Br/Si and Carbonates show a common 110y cycle that is also present in the IPWP and WNA-DAI with a ENSO-like pattern. This centennial mode is excited by warm Equatorial Pacific conditions as its variance is correlated with Galapagos precipitation record. Although Galapagos precipitation record has been related with ENSO intensity, the Br

  1. Eddy-induced Sea Surface Salinity changes in the tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delcroix, T. C.; Chaigneau, A.; Soviadan, D.; Boutin, J.

    2017-12-01

    We analyse the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) signature of westward propagating mesoscale eddies in the tropical Pacific by collocating 5 years (2010-2015) of SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) SSS and altimetry-derived sea level anomalies. The main characteristics of mesoscale eddies are first identified in SLA maps. Composite analyses in the Central and Eastern ITCZ regions then reveal regionally dependent impacts with opposite SSS anomalies for the cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies. In the Central region (where we have the largest meridional SSS gradient), we found dipole-like SSS changes with maximum anomalies on the leading edge of the eddy. In the Eastern region (where we have the largest near-surface vertical salinity gradient) we found monopole-like SSS changes with maximum anomalies in the eddy centre. These dipole/monopole patterns and the rotational sense of eddies suggest the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection in the Central and Eastern ITCZ regions, respectively.

  2. ENSO signals on sea-surface salinity in the eastern tropical pacific ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    types collected in the tropical Pacific are analyzed to assess the regional impacts of past (1972-1996 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO events. Focus is made on the regional changes in sea-surface temperature and salinity. Commercial vessels were recently equipped with automated thermosalinographs which allows to monitor the location of salinity front along the Panama-Tahiti line, separating the Panama Gulf from the South Pacific water masses. The latitudinal change of the salinity front is well correlated with the latitudinal change of the ITCZ. Salinity distribution gives additional information on El-Niño development. How future real time SSS data might provide interesting information on the development of ENSO phenomenon in the eastern tropical Pacific area will be discussed.

  3. Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei

    2017-01-01

    An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

  4. The invasive snowflake coral (Carijoa riisei in the Tropical Eastern Pacific, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Armando Sánchez

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Carijoa riisei (Octocorallia: Cnidaria, a western Atlantic species, has been reported in the Pacific as an invasive species for nearly forty years. C. riisei has been recently observed overgrowing native octocorals at several rocky-coral littorals in the Colombian Tropical Eastern Pacific-(TEP. C. riisei has inhabited these reefs for at least 15 years but the aggressive overgrowth on other octocorals have been noted until recently. Here, we surveyed for the first time the distribution and inter-specific aggression by C. riisei in both coastal and oceanic areas colonized in the Colombian TEP (Malpelo, Gorgona and Cabo Corrientes, including preliminary multiyear surveys during 2007-2013. We observed community-wide octocoral mortalities (including local extinction of some Muricea spp. and a steady occurrence of competing and overgrowing Pacifigorgia seafans and Leptogorgia seawhips. In Gorgona Island, at two different sites, over 87% (n=77 tagged colonies of octocorals (Pacifigorgia spp. and Leptogorgia alba died as a result of C. riisei interaction and/or overgrowth between 2011 and 2013. C. riisei overgrows octocorals with an estimate at linear growth rate of about 1cm m-1. The aggressive overgrowth of this species in TEP deserves more attention and regular monitoring programs. Rev. Biol. Trop. 62 (Suppl. 1: 199-207. Epub 2014 February 01.

  5. Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.

    2014-03-01

    We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.

  6. Quantifying Diurnal Cloud Radiative Effects by Cloud Type in the Tropical Western Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burleyson, Casey D.; Long, Charles N.; Comstock, Jennifer M.

    2015-06-01

    Cloud radiative effects are examined using long-term datasets collected at the three Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facilities in the tropical western Pacific. We quantify the surface radiation budget, cloud populations, and cloud radiative effects by partitioning the data by cloud type, time of day, and as a function of large scale modes of variability such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and wet/dry seasons at Darwin. The novel facet of our analysis is that we break aggregate cloud radiative effects down by cloud type across the diurnal cycle. The Nauru cloud populations and subsequently the surface radiation budget are strongly impacted by ENSO variability whereas the cloud populations over Manus only shift slightly in response to changes in ENSO phase. The Darwin site exhibits large seasonal monsoon related variations. We show that while deeper convective clouds have a strong conditional influence on the radiation reaching the surface, their limited frequency reduces their aggregate radiative impact. The largest source of shortwave cloud radiative effects at all three sites comes from low clouds. We use the observations to demonstrate that potential model biases in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle and mean cloud frequency would lead to larger errors in the surface energy budget compared to biases in the timing of the diurnal cycle of cloud frequency. Our results provide solid benchmarks to evaluate model simulations of cloud radiative effects in the tropics.

  7. Attribution of the variability of typhoon landfalls in China coasts to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, L.; Chen, S.; Wang, C.; Wang, D.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The typhoon (TY) landfall activity along China coasts during July-August-September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variations during 1965-2010. Three typical episodes for TY landfall activities in JAS along the China coasts during 1965-2010 can be identified, with more TY landfall during 1965-1978 (period I) and 1998-2010 (period III), and less during 1982-1995 (period II). We found that the interdcadal variations might be related to the combined effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase change and the sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (IO-WP). During negative PDO phase of periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP) inducing easterly flow at its north, favoring TY landfall along eastern China coast. Due to Gill-pattern responses, warm SST anomalies over tropical IO-WP induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP, with southeasterly wind dominating in the northern SCS and WNP (10o-20o N), which favors TY reaching along southern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TY landfall during period III than that of period I, which shows SST cooling in tropical IO-WP.

  8. Circulation, eddies, oxygen, and nutrient changes in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czeschel, R.; Stramma, L.; Weller, R. A.; Fischer, T.

    2015-06-01

    A large subsurface oxygen deficiency zone is located in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean (ETSP). The large-scale circulation in the eastern equatorial Pacific and off the coast of Peru in November/December 2012 shows the influence of the equatorial current system, the eastern boundary currents, and the northern reaches of the subtropical gyre. In November 2012 the equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is centered at 250 m depth, deeper than in earlier observations. In December 2012, the equatorial water is transported southeastward near the shelf in the Peru-Chile undercurrent (PCUC) with a mean transport of 1.4 Sv. In the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), the flow is overlaid with strong eddy activity on the poleward side of the OMZ. Floats with parking depth at 400 m show fast westward flow in the mid-depth equatorial channel and sluggish flow in the OMZ. Floats with oxygen sensors clearly show the passage of eddies with oxygen anomalies. The long-term float observations in the upper ocean lead to a net community production estimate at about 18° S of up to 16.7 mmol C m-3 yr-1 extrapolated to an annual rate and 7.7 mmol C m-3 yr-1 for the time period below the mixed layer. Oxygen differences between repeated ship sections are influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), by the phase of El Niño, by seasonal changes, and by eddies, and hence have to be interpreted with care. At and south of the Equator the decrease in oxygen in the upper ocean since 1976 is related to an increase in nitrate, phosphate, and in part silicate.

  9. Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Pacific Exploratory Mission - Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B). Volume 2; P-3B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A. Donald, Jr.; Kleb, Mary M.; Raper, James L.

    2000-01-01

    This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B) conducted in March and April 1999. PEM-Tropics B was conducted during the southern-tropical wet season when the influence from biomass burning observed in PEM-Tropics A was minimal. Major deployment sites were Hawaii, Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Tahiti, Fiji, and Easter Island. The broad goals of PEM-Tropics B were to improved understanding of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and the processes controlling sulfur aerosol formation and to establish baseline values for chemical species that are directly coupled to the oxidizing power and aerosol loading of the troposphere. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that will be available in archived format via NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) or are available through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analysis, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

  10. Compendium of NASA Data Base for the Global Tropospheric Experiment's Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B). Volume 1; DC-8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A. Donald, Jr.; Kleb, Mary M.; Raper, James L.

    2000-01-01

    This report provides a compendium of NASA aircraft data that are available from NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment's (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B) conducted in March and April 1999. PEM-Tropics B was conducted during the southern-tropical wet season when the influence from biomass burning observed in PEM-Tropics A was minimal. Major deployment sites were Hawaii, Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Tahiti, Fiji, and Easter Island. The broad goals of PEM-Tropics B were to improved understanding of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and the processes controlling sulfur aerosol formation and to establish baseline values for chemical species that are directly coupled to the oxidizing power and aerosol loading of the troposphere. The purpose of this document is to provide a representation of aircraft data that will be available in archived format via NASA Langley's Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) or are available through the GTE Project Office archive. The data format is not intended to support original research/analysis, but to assist the reader in identifying data that are of interest.

  11. Knowledge exchange in the Pacific: The TROPIC (Translational Research into Obesity Prevention Policies for Communities) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Policies targeting obesogenic environments and behaviours are critical to counter rising obesity rates and lifestyle-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Policies are likely to be most effective and enduring when they are based on the best available evidence. Evidence-informed policy making is especially challenging in countries with limited resources. The Pacific TROPIC (Translational Research for Obesity Prevention in Communities) project aims to implement and evaluate a tailored knowledge-brokering approach to evidence-informed policy making to address obesity in Fiji, a Pacific nation challenged by increasingly high rates of obesity and concomitant NCDs. Methods The TROPIC project draws on the concept of ‘knowledge exchange’ between policy developers (individuals; organisations) and researchers to deliver a knowledge broking programme that maps policy environments, conducts workshops on evidence-informed policy making, supports the development of evidence-informed policy briefs, and embeds evidence-informed policy making into organisational culture. Recruitment of government and nongovernment organisational representatives will be based on potential to: develop policies relevant to obesity, reach broad audiences, and commit to resourcing staff and building a culture that supports evidence-informed policy development. Workshops will increase awareness of both obesity and policy cycles, as well as develop participants’ skills in accessing, assessing and applying relevant evidence to policy briefs. The knowledge-broking team will then support participants to: 1) develop evidence-informed policy briefs that are both commensurate with national and organisational plans and also informed by evidence from the Pacific Obesity Prevention in Communities project and elsewhere; and 2) collaborate with participating organisations to embed evidence-informed policy making structures and processes. This knowledge broking initiative will be evaluated via

  12. Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plondke, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

  13. Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate-Drivers on African Rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preethi, B; Sabin, T P; Adedoyin, J A; Ashok, K

    2015-11-16

    The study diagnoses the relative impacts of the four known tropical Indo-Pacific drivers, namely, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode (IOBM) on African seasonal rainfall variability. The canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki are in general associated with anomalous reduction (enhancement) of rainfall in southern (northern) hemispheric regions during March-May season. However, both the El Niño flavours anomalously reduce the northern hemispheric rainfall during June-September. Interestingly, during boreal spring and summer, in many regions, the Indian Ocean drivers have influences opposite to those from tropical Pacific drivers. On the other hand, during the October-December season, the canonical El Niño and/or positive IOD are associated with an anomalous enhancement of rainfall in the Eastern Africa, while the El Niño Modoki events are associated with an opposite impact. In addition to the Walker circulation changes, the Indo-Pacific drivers influence the African rainfall through modulating jet streams. During boreal summer, the El Niño Modoki and canonical El Niño (positive IOD) tend to weaken (strengthen) the tropical easterly jet, and result in strengthening (weakening) and southward shift of African easterly jet. This anomalously reduces (enhances) rainfall in the tropical north, including Sahelian Africa.

  14. Multi-Scale Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, J. D.; Moskaitis, J.; Black, P. G.; Hendricks, E. A.; Reinecke, A.; Amerault, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) may be sensitive to aspects of large-scale forcing, as well as internal mesoscale dynamics. In this presentation, the degree to which tropical cyclone intensity and structure is sensitive to small perturbations to the basic properties of the synoptic-scale environment, as well as in the immediate vicinity of the storm, is explored using both adjoint- and ensemble-based approaches. In particular, we explore the relationship between tropical cyclone intensity changes and upper-level outflow. We make use of observations from two recent field campaigns: i) the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3), which featured two fully instrumented Global Hawk unmanned aerial systems, and ii) the ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-14) experiment that utilized the NASA WB-57. We make use of the Navy's high-resolution tropical cyclone prediction system COAMPS-TC to provide ensemble forecasts, numerical experiments with and without the assimilation of specific observation types (e.g., satellite, dropsondes, high-frequency radiosonde), as well as mesoscale nested adjoint sensitivity and observation impact calculations, all of which provide insight into the initial state sensitivity and predictability issues. We assess the impact of observations in sensitive regions in the TC environment (including outflow regions away from the TC inner core) on predictions of TC intensity and structure. Overall the results underscore the importance of multiple scales that influence the predictability of TC intensification. During HS3, the assimilation of Global Hawk dropsondes has been shown to reduce the maximum wind error from 15 knots to less than 10 knots at 48 h for Hurricane Nadine (2012). In this particular case, the adjoint model shows strong sensitivity in the TC outflow near the entrance region of an upper-level jet. The impact of dropsondes from data denial experiments and adjoint-based observation impact calculations will be

  15. Monorchiids (Platyhelminthes: Digenea) of chaetodontid fishes (Perciformes): biogeographical patterns in the tropical Indo-West Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, M K A; Adlard, R D; Bray, R A; Sasal, P; Cribb, T H

    2012-06-01

    Species richness and biogeography of the monorchiid genus Hurleytrematoides was studied by the examination of 2834 individuals of 45 species of Chaetodontidae at six major sites in the tropical Indo-West Pacific: Heron Island, Lizard Island, Ningaloo (Western Australia), Palau, New Caledonia and Moorea (French Polynesia). In total, 18 species were distributed among six sites; descriptions are provided for eight new species: H. boucheti n. sp., H. combesi n. sp., H. deblocki n. sp., H. dollfusi n. sp., H. euzeti n. sp., H. kulbickii n. sp., H. pasteuri n. sp., and H. planesi n. sp. Overall richness ranged from zero to five Hurleytrematoides species per chaetodontid species. Seven Hurleytrematoides species were found at only one locality and eleven were found at multiple localities. Only one species, H. morandi, was found at all localities. Individual localities had between six (Moorea) and 10 (Heron Island) species; we attribute Moorea's depauperate parasite fauna to its isolation and distance from the Indo-Philippine centre of biological diversity. Using cluster analysis of 18 species of Hurleytrematoides and 45 species of chaetodontids sampled in the Indo-West Pacific, we show that the localities on the Great Barrier Reef (Heron Island and Lizard Island) and New Caledonia have the most similar chaetodontid and parasite fauna of any locality pairs. Cluster analysis results also show that the similarity of the chaetodontid assemblages at five of the six localities is relatively high and that Ningaloo has the most distinct fauna. Similarity values based on sharing of species of Hurleytrematoides are generally lower than those for their hosts; Moorea, Ningaloo and Palau all have low similarity to New Caledonia and Great Barrier Reef sites. We attribute these distinctions to the differential dispersal capability of the fish and their parasites. Chaetodontids have long-lived mobile pelagic larvae, the dispersal of which would be most affected by prominent

  16. Interactions between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude systems in the Northeastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, A.; Abarca, S. F.; Raga, G. B.; Vargas, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Major challenges in tropical meteorology include the short-term forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which is defined as the maximum tangential wind. Several efforts have been made in order to reach this goal over the last decade: Among these efforts, the study of lightning in the TC inner core (the region inside a disc of 100 km radius from the center) as a proxy to deep convection, has the potential to be used as a predictor to forecast intensity (DeMaria et al, 2012, Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1828-1842).While most studies focus their objectives in studying the lightning flash density in the inner core, we study the probability of flash occurrence for intensifying and weakening cyclones. We have analyzed the trajectories of the observed 62 tropical cyclones that developed in the basin from 2006 to 2009, and classified them into separate clusters according to their trajectories. These clusters can broadly be described as having trajectories mostly oriented: East-West, towards the central Pacific, NW far from the Mexican coast, parallel to the Mexican coast and recurving towards the Mexican coast.We estimate that probability of inner core lightning occurrence increases as cyclones intensify but the probability rapidly decrease as the systems weaken. This is valid for cyclones in most of the clusters. However, the cyclones that exhibit trajectories that recurve towards the Mexican coast, do not present the same relationship between intensity and inner-core lightning probability, these cyclones show little or no decrease in the lightning occurrence probability as they weaken.We hypothesize that one of the reasons for this anomalous behavior is likely the fact that these cyclones interact with mid-latitude systems. Mid-latitude systems are important in determining the recurving trajectory but they may also influence the TC by advecting mid-level moisture towards the TC inner core. This additional supply of moisture as the system is approaching land may enhance deep

  17. The Role of the Indian Ocean Sector for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System: Impact of Atmospheric Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-01-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 0 deg. N to 25 deg. N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  18. The role of the Indian Ocean sector for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system: Impact of atmospheric coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, E. C.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Carton, J.; Murtugudde, R.; Arkin, P.; Evans, M. N.

    2017-04-01

    Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics impact ENSO predictability by influencing wind and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific. To test if the upstream influence of the IO improves ENSO validation statistics, a combination of forced ocean, atmosphere, and coupled models are utilized. In one experiment, the full tropical Indo-Pacific region atmosphere is forced by observed interannual SST anomalies. In the other, the IO is forced by climatological SST. Differences between these two forced atmospheric model experiments spotlight a much richer wind response pattern in the Pacific than previous studies that used idealized forcing and simple linear atmospheric models. Weak westerlies are found near the equator similar to earlier literature. However, at initialization strong easterlies between 30°S-10°S and 0°N-25°N and equatorial convergence of the meridional winds across the entire Pacific are unique findings from this paper. The large-scale equatorial divergence west of the dateline and northeasterly-to-northwesterly cross-equatorial flow converging on the equator east of the dateline in the Pacific are generated from interannual IO SST coupling. In addition, off-equatorial downwelling curl impacts large-scale oceanic waves (i.e., Rossby waves reflect as western boundary Kelvin waves). After 3 months, these downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves propagate across the Pacific and strengthen the NINO3 SST. Eventually Bjerknes feedbacks take hold in the eastern Pacific which allows this warm anomaly to grow. Coupled forecasts for NINO3 SST anomalies for 1993-2014 demonstrate that including interannual IO forcing significantly improves predictions for 3-9 month lead times.

  19. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab

    2016-08-26

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference of the uncertain parameters is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme that utilizes a newly formulated test statistic taking into account the different components representing the structures of turbulent mixing on both daily and seasonal time scales in addition to the data quality, and filters for the effects of parameter perturbations over those as a result of changes in the wind. To avoid the prohibitive computational cost of integrating the MITgcm model at each MCMC iteration, a surrogate model for the test statistic using the PC method is built. Because of the noise in the model predictions, a basis-pursuit-denoising (BPDN) compressed sensing approach is employed to determine the PC coefficients of a representative surrogate model. The PC surrogate is then used to evaluate the test statistic in the MCMC step for sampling the posterior of the uncertain parameters. Results of the posteriors indicate good agreement with the default values for two parameters of the KPP model, namely the critical bulk and gradient Richardson numbers; while the posteriors of the remaining parameters were barely informative. © 2016 American Meteorological Society.

  20. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  1. An algorithm for detecting Trichodesmium surface blooms in the South Western Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Dandonneau

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Trichodesmium, a major colonial cyanobacterial nitrogen fixer, forms large blooms in NO3-depleted tropical oceans and enhances CO2 sequestration by the ocean due to its ability to fix dissolved dinitrogen. Thus, its importance in C and N cycles requires better estimates of its distribution at basin to global scales. However, existing algorithms to detect them from satellite have not yet been successful in the South Western Tropical Pacific (SP. Here, a novel algorithm (TRICHOdesmium SATellite based on radiance anomaly spectra (RAS observed in SeaWiFS imagery, is used to detect Trichodesmium during the austral summertime in the SP (5° S–25° S 160° E–170° W. Selected pixels are characterized by a restricted range of parameters quantifying RAS spectra (e.g. slope, intercept, curvature. The fraction of valid (non-cloudy pixels identified as Trichodesmium surface blooms in the region is low (between 0.01 and 0.2 %, but is about 100 times higher than deduced from previous algorithms. At daily scales in the SP, this fraction represents a total ocean surface area varying from 16 to 48 km2 in Winter and from 200 to 1000 km2 in Summer (and at monthly scale, from 500 to 1000 km2 in Winter and from 3100 to 10 890 km2 in Summer with a maximum of 26 432 km2 in January 1999. The daily distribution of Trichodesmium surface accumulations in the SP detected by TRICHOSAT is presented for the period 1998–2010 which demonstrates that the number of selected pixels peaks in November–February each year, consistent with field observations. This approach was validated with in situ observations of Trichodesmium surface accumulations in the Melanesian archipelago around New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Fiji Islands for the same period.

  2. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  3. The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Peter; Weisheimer, Antje; Knight, Jeff; Palmer, Tim

    2016-04-01

    In the 2013/14 winter, the eastern USA was exceptionally cold, the Bering Strait region was exceptionally warm, California was in the midst of drought and the UK suffered severe flooding. It has been suggested that elevated SSTs in the tropical West Pacific (TWPAC) were partly to blame due to their producing a Rossby wavetrain that propagated into the extratropics. We find that seasonal forecasts with the tropical atmosphere relaxed towards a reanalysis give 2013/14 winter-mean anomalies with strong similarities to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that low-latitude anomalies had a role in the development of the extremes. Relaxing just the TWPAC produces a strong wavetrain over the North Pacific and North America in January, but not in the winter-mean. This suggests that anomalies in this region alone had a large influence, but cannot explain the extremes through the whole winter. We also examine the response to applying the observed TWPAC SST anomalies in two atmospheric general circulation models. We find that this does produce winter-mean anomalies in the North Pacific and North America resembling those observed, but that the tropical forcing of Rossby waves due to the applied SST anomalies appears stronger than that in reanalysis, except in January. Therefore both experiments indicate that the TWPAC influence was important, but the true strength of the TWPAC influence is uncertain. None of the experiments indicate a strong systematic impact of the TWPAC anomalies on Europe.

  4. Distribution of macroinvertebrates on intertidal rocky shores in Gorgona Island, Colombia (Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgardo Londoño-Cruz

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Organisms found on rocky shores must endure harsh environmental conditions during tidal changes but scientific studies on tropical rocky shores are scarce, particularly in Colombian shores. Here we describe the spatial distribution of macroinvertebrates associated to the intertidal rocky ecosystems of Gorgona Island, Colombia (Tropical Eastern Pacific. Sampling was carried out in four localities around the Island: La Ventana and La Camaronera (sampled during October 2010 and La Mancora and El Muelle (sampled during March 2011. Two methodologies were used: rapid ecological assessments for qualitative data and quadrats for quantitative data. The richness, abundance, diversity (Shannon-Wiener H’, and evenness (Pielou J’ of macroinvertebrates were determined for and compared between, using one way ANOVA, each locality and the three intertidal zones of La Ventana (see methods. One hundred twenty-one species of macroinvertebrates were found during the sampling period. In all localities, Mollusca was the richest and most abundant taxon (46% of the species and 59% of the individuals, followed by Crustacea (32% of the species and 33% of the individuals. The other groups accounted for the remaining 22% of the richness and 8% of the abundance. Several studies have demonstrated that mollusks and crustaceans are the richest and most abundant taxa in marine benthic communities. Most of the abundant species found were herbivores. The species composition varied among zones. The results of dominant species for each zone are consistent with the ones observed in other tropical rocky intertidal shores. All response variables showed a decreasing pattern from the low to the high intertidal (in La Ventana. Post-hoc results indicated that the high intertidal, the zone with the harshest environmental conditions, had significantly lower values than the other two zones for all response variables. Comparisons between the low intertidal zones of the different localities

  5. Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity, and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2014-01-01

    The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection. PMID:24686481

  6. Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

    2017-11-01

    During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

  7. Multiscale change in reef coral species diversity and composition in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Catalina G.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Guzman, Hector M.

    2018-03-01

    Both natural and anthropogenic factors are changing coral-reef structure and function worldwide. Long-term monitoring has revealed declines in the local composition and species diversity of reefs. Here we report changes in coral-reef community structure over 12 yr (2000-2012) at 17 sites and three spatial scales (reef, gulf and country) in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (Panama). We found a significant 4% annual decline in species population sizes at the country and gulf scales, with significant declines ranging from 3 to 32% at all but one reef. No significant temporal change in expected richness was found at the country scale or in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but a 7% annual decline in expected species richness was found in the Gulf of Panama. There was a 2% increase in community evenness in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but no change in the Gulf of Panama. Significant temporal turnover was found at the country and gulf scales and at 29% of the reefs, a finding mostly explained by changes in species abundance, and losses and gains of rare species. Temporal trends in alpha and beta diversity metrics were explained by water temperature maxima, anomalies and variation that occurred even in the absence of a strong El Niño warming event.

  8. Nitrous oxide production by nitrification and denitrification in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qixing; Babbin, Andrew R.; Jayakumar, Amal; Oleynik, Sergey; Ward, Bess B.

    2015-12-01

    The Eastern Tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone (ETSP-OMZ) is a site of intense nitrous oxide (N2O) flux to the atmosphere. This flux results from production of N2O by nitrification and denitrification, but the contribution of the two processes is unknown. The rates of these pathways and their distributions were measured directly using 15N tracers. The highest N2O production rates occurred at the depth of peak N2O concentrations at the oxic-anoxic interface above the oxygen deficient zone (ODZ) because slightly oxygenated waters allowed (1) N2O production from both nitrification and denitrification and (2) higher nitrous oxide production yields from nitrification. Within the ODZ proper (i.e., anoxia), the only source of N2O was denitrification (i.e., nitrite and nitrate reduction), the rates of which were reflected in the abundance of nirS genes (encoding nitrite reductase). Overall, denitrification was the dominant pathway contributing the N2O production in the ETSP-OMZ.

  9. Dinitrogen Fixation Within and Adjacent to Oxygen Deficient Waters of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widner, B.; Mulholland, M. R.; Bernhardt, P. W.; Chang, B. X.; Jayakumar, A.

    2016-02-01

    Recent work suggests that planktonic diazotrophs are geographically more widely distributed than previously thought including relatively warm (14-23oC) aphotic oxygenated pelagic waters and in aphotic waters within oxygen deficient zones. Because the volume of aphotic water in the ocean is large and may increase in the future, if dinitrogen (N2) fixation is widely occurring at sub-euphotic depths, this could result in a dramatic upward revision of global nitrogen (N) inputs via this process. N2 fixation rates were measured during a cruise in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific using stable isotope tracer techniques that account for slow gas dissolution. Results are compared with light, nutrient, and oxygen gradients (and necessarily temperature gradients). In addition, rates of N2 fixation made in vertical profiles within and above oxygen deficient waters are compared with those measured in vertical profiles adjacent to oxygen deficient waters. Results suggest that while rates of N2 fixation were measurable in deeper anoxic waters, volumetric N2 fixation rates were higher in surface waters.

  10. Biological nitrogen fixation in the oxygen-minimum region of the eastern tropical North Pacific ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, Amal; Chang, Bonnie X; Widner, Brittany; Bernhardt, Peter; Mulholland, Margaret R; Ward, Bess B

    2017-10-01

    Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) was investigated above and within the oxygen-depleted waters of the oxygen-minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical North Pacific Ocean. BNF rates were estimated using an isotope tracer method that overcame the uncertainty of the conventional bubble method by directly measuring the tracer enrichment during the incubations. Highest rates of BNF (~4 nM day -1 ) occurred in coastal surface waters and lowest detectable rates (~0.2 nM day -1 ) were found in the anoxic region of offshore stations. BNF was not detectable in most samples from oxygen-depleted waters. The composition of the N 2 -fixing assemblage was investigated by sequencing of nifH genes. The diazotrophic assemblage in surface waters contained mainly Proteobacterial sequences (Cluster I nifH), while both Proteobacterial sequences and sequences with high identities to those of anaerobic microbes characterized as Clusters III and IV type nifH sequences were found in the anoxic waters. Our results indicate modest input of N through BNF in oxygen-depleted zones mainly due to the activity of proteobacterial diazotrophs.

  11. Gill monogenean communities (Platyhelminthes, Monogenea, Dactylogyridae) of butterflyfishes from tropical Indo-West Pacific Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reverter, Miriam; Cutmore, Scott C; Bray, Rodney; Cribb, Thomas H; Sasal, Pierre

    2016-10-01

    We studied the monogenean communities of 34 species of butterflyfish from the tropical Indo-West Pacific, identifying 13 dactylogyrid species (including two species that are presently undescribed). Monogenean assemblages differed significantly between host species in terms of taxonomic structure, intensity and prevalence. Parasite richness ranged from 0 (Chaetodon lunulatus) to 11 (C. auriga, C. citrinellus and C. lunula). Host specificity varied between the dactylogyrids species, being found on 2-29 of the 34 chaetodontid species examined. Sympatric butterflyfish species were typically parasitized by different combinations of dactylogyrid species, suggesting the existence of complex host-parasite interactions. We identified six clusters of butterflyfish species based on the similarities of their dactylogyrid communities. Dactylogyrid richness and diversity were not related to host size, diet specialization, depth range or phylogeny of butterflyfish species. However, there was a weak positive correlation between monogenean richness and diversity and host geographical range. Most communities of dactylogyrids were dominated by Haliotrema aurigae and H. angelopterum, indicating the importance of the genus Haliotrema in shaping monogenean communities of butterflyfishes. This study casts light on the structure of the monogenean communities of butterflyfishes, suggesting that the diversity and complexity of community structures arises from a combination of host species-specific parameters.

  12. Interdecadal Change of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Controlling Parameter in Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, T.

    2017-12-01

    The main environmental parameter controlling tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP) changed in different interdecadal periods. The interannual variability of TC genesis frequency was primarily control by specific humidity in 1950-1976, sea surface temperature (SST) in 1977-1998, and vorticity in 1999-2014. A further diagnosis shows that the change of environmental specific humidity during 1950-1976 was attributed to anomalous advection of mean moisture during ENSO developing summer. The SST change during 1977-1998 was associated with circulation change during ENSO decaying summer. The change of environment vorticity was primarily related to CP-type El Niño during 1999-2014. The ultimate cause of the controlling parameter change is attributed to the change of ENSO behavior. Compared to the first period, a stronger EP-type ENSO variability in the second period leads to a stronger circulation/SST response during ENSO decaying phase. The occurrence of more frequent CP type El Niño in the third period was responsible for greater vorticity controlling in the WNP.

  13. A Climatology of Surface Cloud Radiative Effects at the ARM Tropical Western Pacific Sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, Sally A.; Long, Charles N.; Flaherty, Julia E.

    2013-04-01

    Cloud radiative effects on surface downwelling fluxes are investigated using long-term datasets from the three Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) region. The Nauru and Darwin sites show significant variability in sky cover, downwelling radiative fluxes, and surface cloud radiative effect (CRE) due to El Niño and the Australian monsoon, respectively, while the Manus site shows little intra-seasonal or interannual variability. Cloud radar measurement of cloud base and top heights are used to define cloud types so that the effect of cloud type on the surface CRE can be examined. Clouds with low bases contribute 71-75% of the surface shortwave (SW) CRE and 66-74% of the surface longwave (LW) CRE at the three TWP sites, while clouds with mid-level bases contribute 8-9% of the SW CRE and 12-14% of the LW CRE, and clouds with high bases contribute 16-19% of the SW CRE and 15-21% of the LW CRE.

  14. Application of Entropy Ensemble Filter in Neural Network Forecasts of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Foroozand

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Entropy Ensemble Filter (EEF method was proposed to mitigate the computational cost of the Bootstrap AGGregatING (bagging method. This method uses the most informative training data sets in the model ensemble rather than all ensemble members created by the conventional bagging. In this study, we evaluate, for the first time, the application of the EEF method in Neural Network (NN modeling of El Nino-southern oscillation. Specifically, we forecast the first five principal components (PCs of sea surface temperature monthly anomaly fields over tropical Pacific, at different lead times (from 3 to 15 months, with a three-month increment for the period 1979–2017. We apply the EEF method in a multiple-linear regression (MLR model and two NN models, one using Bayesian regularization and one Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for training, and evaluate their performance and computational efficiency relative to the same models with conventional bagging. All models perform equally well at the lead time of 3 and 6 months, while at higher lead times, the MLR model’s skill deteriorates faster than the nonlinear models. The neural network models with both bagging methods produce equally successful forecasts with the same computational efficiency. It remains to be shown whether this finding is sensitive to the dataset size.

  15. Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the Subtropical Ridge

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, C.-P.; Zhang, Yongsheng; Li, Tim

    2000-01-01

    The interannual relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTs is studied using rainfall data in the Yangtze River Valley and the NCEP reanalysis for 1951–96. The datasets are also partitioned into two periods, 1951–77 and 1978–96, to study the interdecadal variations of this relationship. A wet summer monsoon is preceded by a warm equatorial eastern Pacific in the previous winter and followed by a cold equatorial eastern Pacific in the following fa...

  16. Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Yang, R.; Yang, C.; Yu, M.; Hu, F.; Jiang, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI) of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM) network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications.

  17. Leveraging LSTM for rapid intensifications prediction of tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs usually cause severe damages and destructions. TC intensity forecasting helps people prepare for the extreme weather and could save lives and properties. Rapid Intensifications (RI of TCs are the major error sources of TC intensity forecasting. A large number of factors, such as sea surface temperature and wind shear, affect the RI processes of TCs. Quite a lot of work have been done to identify the combination of conditions most favorable to RI. In this study, deep learning method is utilized to combine conditions for RI prediction of TCs. Experiments show that the long short-term memory (LSTM network provides the ability to leverage past conditions to predict TC rapid intensifications.

  18. Marine biodiversity of an Eastern Tropical Pacific oceanic island, Isla del Coco, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco (also known as Cocos Island is an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific; it is part of the largest national park of Costa Rica and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The island has been visited since the 16th Century due to its abundance of freshwater and wood. Marine biodiversity studies of the island started in the late 19th Century, with an intense period of research in the 1930’s, and again from the mid 1990’s to the present. The information is scattered and, in some cases, in old publications that are difficult to access. Here I have compiled published records of the marine organisms of the island. At least 1688 species are recorded, with the gastropods (383 species, bony fishes (354 spp. and crustaceans (at least 263 spp. being the most species-rich groups; 45 species are endemic to Isla del Coco National Park (2.7% of the total. The number of species per kilometer of coastline and by square kilometer of seabed shallower than 200m deep are the highest recorded in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Although the marine biodiversity of Isla del Coco is relatively well known, there are regions that need more exploration, for example, the south side, the pelagic environments, and deeper waters. Also, several groups of organisms, such as the flatworms, nematodes, nemerteans, and gelatinous zooplankton, have been observed around the Island but have been poorly studied or not at all.La Isla del Coco es una isla oceánica en el Pacífico Tropical Oriental; es parte del Parque Nacional más grande de Costa Rica y es un sitio de Patrimonio Mundial. La isla ha sido visitada desde el Siglo XVI por su abundancia de agua dulce y árboles. Estudios de biodiversidad marina de la isla empezaron a finales del Siglo XIX, con un intenso período de investigación en la década de 1930, y de nuevo desde mediados de la década de 1990 al presente. La información sobre organismos marinos se encuentra dispersa y en algunos casos en publicaciones

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  20. Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

    2018-02-01

    Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments

  1. Complementary Use of Glider Data, Altimetry, and Model for Exploring Mesoscale Eddies in the Tropical Pacific Solomon Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourdeau, L.; Verron, J.; Chaigneau, A.; Cravatte, S.; Kessler, W.

    2017-11-01

    Mesoscale activity is an important component of the Solomon Sea circulation that interacts with the energetic low-latitude western boundary currents of the South Tropical Pacific Ocean carrying waters of subtropical origin before joining the equatorial Pacific. Mixing associated with mesoscale activity could explain water mass transformation observed in the Solomon Sea that likely impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics. This study makes synergetic use of glider data, altimetry, and high-resolution model for exploring mesoscale eddies, especially their vertical structures, and their role on the Solomon Sea circulation. The description of individual eddies observed by altimetry and gliders provides the first elements to characterize the 3-D structure of these tropical eddies, and confirms the usefulness of the model to access a more universal view of such eddies. Mesoscale eddies appear to have a vertical extension limited to the Surface Waters (SW) and the Upper Thermocline Water (UTW), i.e., the first 140-150 m depth. Most of the eddies are nonlinear, meaning that eddies can trap and transport water properties. But they weakly interact with the deep New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent that is a key piece of the equatorial circulation. Anticyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to advect salty and warm SW coming from the intrusion of equatorial Pacific waters at Solomon Strait, and to impact the characteristics of the New Guinea Coastal Current. Cyclonic eddies are particularly efficient to transport South Pacific Tropical Water (SPTW) anomalies from the North Vanuatu Jet and to erode by diapycnal mixing the high SPTW salinity.

  2. An eddy-permitting, dynamically consistent adjoint-based assimilation system for the tropical Pacific: Hindcast experiments in 2000

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2010-03-02

    An eddy-permitting adjoint-based assimilation system has been implemented to estimate the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The system uses the Massachusetts Institute of Technology\\'s general circulation model and its adjoint. The adjoint method is used to adjust the model to observations by controlling the initial temperature and salinity; temperature, salinity, and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries; and surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and freshwater. The model is constrained with most of the available data sets in the tropical Pacific, including Tropical Atmosphere and Ocean, ARGO, expendable bathythermograph, and satellite SST and sea surface height data, and climatologies. Results of hindcast experiments in 2000 suggest that the iterated adjoint-based descent is able to significantly improve the model consistency with the multivariate data sets, providing a dynamically consistent realization of the tropical Pacific circulation that generally matches the observations to within specified errors. The estimated model state is evaluated both by comparisons with observations and by checking the controls, the momentum balances, and the representation of small-scale features that were not well sampled by the observations used in the assimilation. As part of these checks, the estimated controls are smoothed and applied in independent model runs to check that small changes in the controls do not greatly change the model hindcast. This is a simple ensemble-based uncertainty analysis. In addition, the original and smoothed controls are applied to a version of the model with doubled horizontal resolution resulting in a broadly similar “downscaled” hindcast, showing that the adjustments are not tuned to a single configuration (meaning resolution, topography, and parameter settings). The time-evolving model state and the adjusted controls should be useful for analysis or to supply the forcing, initial, and boundary conditions for runs of other models.

  3. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

    2018-02-01

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

  4. Predicting Waves in the Pacific Northwest of the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozkan-Haller, H. T.; Oskamp, J. A.; Garcia, G.; Kassem, S.; McNutt, J.

    2010-12-01

    The Pacific Northwest region of the US is characterized by an energetic deep water wave climate with large swell and sea waves that can approach from multiple directions. As these waves propagate from the open ocean over the continental shelf towards shore, they are affected by the underwater topography (or bathymetry) of the shelf. The US West Coast shelf is characterized by complicated bathymetry with numerous canyons and large banks. Such features can at places focus wave energy and at others divert waves away. As a result the wave field near the coast (in 10-50m water depth) varies significantly along the coast. Although a comprehensive prediction and validation effort for waves exists for the California shoreline, it is currently lacking for the Pacific Northwest shorelines. Herein, we present comprehensive long-term wave model simulations for several regions within the Oregon coastline, show validation of the results with existing nearshore observations, and discuss the dominant dynamics responsible for the observed wave transformation.

  5. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Navarro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ∼ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA, ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ∼  61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, total inorganic chlorine (Cly, and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr occurring on ice crystals.

  6. Coupled interactions of organized deep convection over the tropical western pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, X.; Raman, S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and deep convection is complex. In general, deep convection occurs more frequently and with more intensity as SSTs become higher. This theory assumes that the atmospheric stability is sufficiently reduced to allow the onset of moist convection. However, the amount and intensity of convection observed tends to decrease with increasing SST because very warm SSTs. A reason for such decrease is the enhancements to surface fluxes of heat and moisture out of the ocean surface because of the vertical overturning associated with deep convection. Early studies used the radiative-convective models of the atmosphere to examine the role of the convective exchange of heat and moisture in maintaining the vertical temperature profile. In this paper we use a Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to simulate a squall line over a tropical ocean global atmosphere/coupled ocean atmosphere response experiment (TOGA/COARE) area and to investigate how the ocean cooling mechanisms associated with organized deep convection act to limit tropical SSTs.

  7. Rapid recovery of a coral dominated Eastern Tropical Pacific reef after experimentally produced anthropogenic disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthukrishnan, Ranjan; Fong, Peggy

    2018-05-07

    Local anthropogenic stressors such as overfishing, nutrient enrichment and increased sediment loading have been shown to push coral reefs toward greater dominance by algae. In a few cases this shift has been temporary, with the ability to recover to a healthy coral-dominated community after disturbance, suggesting some systems have considerable resilience. However, an understanding of the circumstances under which reefs may recover is only beginning to emerge. We monitored recovery of a coral-dominated reef in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) after cessation of a ∼6 month multiple stressor experiment (with herbivore exclosure, nutrient addition, and sediment addition). We observed substantial recovery from small-scale disturbances, though there were differences in both the extent and temporal dynamics of recovery between treatments. Plots that had been caged showed the largest recovery in absolute terms and recovery was quite rapid, while nutrient and sediment addition plots were slower to recover. We also observed different recovery patterns depending on the type of algae that replaced coral during or after disturbances. Macroalgae that established during manipulation were almost completely removed within 2 weeks, revealing that a significant proportion had covered still-living coral. Turf algae persisted longer, but were almost completely replaced by regenerating coral within 18 months. Very little crustose coralline algae were apparent during manipulations, but coverage did increase during recovery. This rapid recovery of corals after simulated anthropogenic disturbance to ETP reefs underscores the value of management of local stressors for short-term recovery and perhaps as a buffer for longer-term global stressors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Revisiting nitrification in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific: A focus on controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xuefeng; Fuchsman, Clara A.; Jayakumar, Amal; Warner, Mark J.; Devol, Allan H.; Ward, Bess B.

    2016-03-01

    Nitrification, the oxidation of ammonium (NH4+) to nitrite (NO2-) and to nitrate (NO3-), is a component of the nitrogen (N) cycle internal to the fixed N pool. In oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), which are hotspots for oceanic fixed N loss, nitrification plays a key role because it directly supplies substrates for denitrification and anaerobic ammonia oxidation (anammox), and may compete for substrates with these same processes. However, the control of oxygen and substrate concentrations on nitrification are not well understood. We performed onboard incubations with 15N-labeled substrates to measure rates of NH4+ and NO2- oxidation in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP). The spatial and depth distributions of NH4+ and NO2- oxidation rates were primarily controlled by NH4+ and NO2- availability, oxygen concentration, and light. In the euphotic zone, nitrification was partially photoinhibited. In the anoxic layer, NH4+ oxidation was negligible or below detection, but high rates of NO2- oxidation were observed. NH4+ oxidation displayed extremely high affinity for both NH4+ and oxygen. The positive linear correlations between NH4+ oxidation rates and in situ NH4+ concentrations and ammonia monooxygenase subunit A (amoA) gene abundances in the upper oxycline indicate that the natural assemblage of ammonia oxidizers responds to in situNH4+ concentrations or supply by adjusting their population size, which determines the NH4+ oxidation potential. The depth distribution of archaeal and bacterial amoA gene abundances and N2O concentration, along with independently reported simultaneous direct N2O production rate measurements, suggests that AOA were predominantly responsible for NH4+ oxidation, which was a major source of N2O production at oxygen concentrations > 5 µM.

  9. Impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode on Landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Murakami, Hiroyuki

    2018-02-01

    This study examines the impacts of the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall along the coastal US, Caribbean Islands and Mexico, and provides insights on the underlying physical mechanisms using observations and model simulations. There is a statistically significant time-lagged association between spring PMM and the August-October US and Caribbean landfalling TCs. Specifically, the positive (negative) spring PMM events tend to be followed by fewer (more) TCs affecting the coastal US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and the Caribbean Islands. This lagged association is mainly caused by the lagged impacts of PMM on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the subsequent impacts of ENSO on TC frequency and landfalls. Positive (negative) PMM events are largely followed by El Niño (La Niña) events, which lead to less (more) TC geneses close to the US coast (i.e., the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea); this also leads to easterly (westerly) steering flow in the vicinity of the US and Caribbean coast, which is unfavorable (favorable) to TC landfall across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Caribbean Islands. Perturbation simulations with the state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution Version of CM2.5 (FLOR) support the linkage between PMM and TC landfall activity. The time-lagged impacts of spring PMM on TC landfalling activity results in a new predictor to forecast seasonal TC landfall activity along the US (especially over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida) and Caribbean coastal regions.

  10. Multiformity of the tropical cyclone wind–pressure relationship in the western North Pacific: discrepancies among four best-track archives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kueh, Mien-Tze

    2012-01-01

    The reliability of tropical cyclone intensity estimates for the western North Pacific is assessed in the context of wind–pressure relationships. Four best-track datasets compiled in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) are compared to assess the data consistency. Over the past 20 yr period (1991–2010), apparent interagency discrepancies in the archived tropical cyclone intensities are found. Heavy reliance upon operational wind–pressure relationships may reduce subjective biases at the cost of potential loss of tropical cyclone natural variability. Given that the intercomparisons are performed based upon a set of identical tropical cyclones, the differences in operational wind–pressure relationships and in the mapping of satellite tropical cyclone intensity classification for these relationships are presumably critical causes of the interagency discrepancies. This result calls for imperative refinement of current satellite-based tropical cyclone intensity estimates and reanalysis of historical tropical cyclone best-track archives for the basin. (letter)

  11. Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities: Frequency variability in the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

    1992-11-01

    Two techniques have been developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters. These techniques overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant "blue shift" of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on "global" internal wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12° of the equator.

  12. Crustaceans from a tropical estuarine sand-mud flat, Pacific, Costa Rica, (1984-1988 revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José A. Vargas-Zamora

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The availability of data sets for time periods of more than a year is scarce for tropical environments. Advances in hardware and software speed-up the re-analysis of old data sets and facilitates the description of population oscillations. Using recent taxonomic literature and software we have updated and re-analized the information on crustacean diversity and population fluctuations from a set of cores collected at a mud-sand flat in the mid upper Gulf of Nicoya estuary, Pacific coast of Costa Rica (1984-1988. A total of 112 morphological species of macroinvertebrates was found, of which 29 were crustaceans. Taxonomic problems, maily with the peracarids, prevented the identification of a group of species. The abundance patterns of the crab Pinnixa valerii, the ostracod Cyprideis pacifica, and the cumacean Coricuma nicoyensis were analized with the Generalized Additive Models of the free software R. The models evidenced a variety of population oscillations during the sampling period. These oscillations probably included perturbations induced by external factors, like the strong red tide events of 1985. In additon, early on 1984 the populations might have been at an altered state due to the inpact of El Niño 1982-83. Thus, the oscillations observed during the study period departed from the expected seasonality (dry vs rainy pattern and are thus considered atypical for this tropical estuarine tidal-flat. Crustacean diversity and population peaks were within the range of examples found in worldwide literature. However, abundances of the cumacean C. nicoyensis, an endemic species, are the highest reported for a tropical estuary. Comparative data from tropical tidal flat crustaceans continues to be scarce. Crustaceans (total vs groups had population changes in response to the deployment of predator exclusion cages during the dry and rainy seasons of 1985. Temporal and spatial patchiness characterized the abundances of P. valeri, C. pacifica and C

  13. Tropical cyclone prediction skills - MJO and ENSO dependence in S2S data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, C. Y.; Camargo, S.; Vitart, F.; Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two important climate controls on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The seasonal prediction skill of dynamical models is determined in large part by their accurate representations of the ENSO-TC relationship. Regarding intraseasonal TC variability, observations suggest MJO to be the primary control. Given the ongoing effort to develop dynamical seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) TC predictions, it is important to examine whether the global models, running on S2S timescales, are able to reproduce these known ENSO-TC and MJO-TC relationships, and how this ability affects forecasting skill. Results from the S2S project (from F. Vitart) suggest that global models have skill in predicting MJO phase with up to two weeks of lead time (four weeks for ECMWF). Meanwhile, our results show that, qualitatively speaking, the MJO-TC relationship in storm genesis is reasonably captured, with some models (e.g., ECMWF, BoM, NCEP, MetFr) performing better than the others. However, we also find that model skill in predicting basin-wide genesis and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) are mainly due to the models' ability to capture the climatological seasonality. Removing the seasonality significantly reduces the models' skill; even the best model (ECMWF) in the most reliable basin (western north Pacific and Atlantic) has very little skill (close to 0.1 in Brier skill score for genesis and close to 0 in rank probability skill score for ACE). This brings up the question: do any factors contribute to intraseasonal TC prediction skill other than seasonality? Is the low skill, after removing the seasonality, due to poor MJO and ENSO simulations, or to poor representation of other ENSO-TC or MJO-TC relationships, such as ENSO's impact on the storm tracks? We will quantitatively discuss the dependence of the TC prediction skill on ENSO and MJO, focusing on Western North Pacific and Atlantic, where we have sufficient

  14. Gibbons (Nomascus gabriellae) provide key seed dispersal for the Pacific walnut (Dracontomelon dao), in Asia's lowland tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hai, Bach Thanh; Chen, Jin; McConkey, Kim R.; Dayananda, Salindra K.

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the mutualisms between frugivores and plants is essential for developing successful forest management and conservation strategies, especially in tropical rainforests where the majority of plants are dispersed by animals. Gibbons are among the most effective seed dispersers in South East Asia's tropical forests, but are also one of the highly threatened arboreal mammals in the region. Here we studied the seed dispersal of the Pacific walnut (Dracontomelon dao), a canopy tree which produces fruit that are common in the diet of the endangered southern yellow-cheeked crested gibbon (Nomascus gabriellae). We found that gibbons were the most effective disperser for this species; they consumed approximately 45% of the fruit crop, which was four times more than that consumed by macaques - the only other legitimate disperser. Gibbons tracked the temporal (but not spatial) abundance of ripe fruits, indicating this fruit was a preferred species for the gibbon. Both gibbons and macaques dispersed the majority (>90%) of the seeds at least 20 m away from parent crowns, with mean dispersal distances by gibbons measuring 179.3 ± 98.0 m (range: 4-425 m). Seeds defecated by gibbons germinated quicker and at greater rates than seeds spat by macaques, or in undispersed fruits. Gibbon-dispersed seeds were also more likely to be removed by unknown seed predators or unknown secondary dispersers. Overall, gibbons play a key role in the regeneration of the Pacific walnut. Our findings have significant implications both for the management of the Pacific walnut tree dominating tropical rainforest as well as the reintroduction program of the Southern yellow-cheeked crested gibbon.

  15. Targeted observations to improve tropical cyclone track forecasts in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aberson, Sim David

    In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began conducting operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve operational forecast models. During the first two years, twenty-four missions were conducted around tropical cyclones threatening the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Global Positioning System dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150--200 km intervals along the flight track in the tropical cyclone environment to obtain wind, temperature, and humidity profiles from flight level (around 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and transmitted to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There, they were ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System that subsequently provides initial and time-dependent boundary conditions for numerical models that forecast tropical cyclone track and intensity. Three dynamical models were employed in testing the targeting and sampling strategies. With the assimilation into the numerical guidance of all the observations gathered during the surveillance missions, only the 12-h Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model forecast showed statistically significant improvement. Neither the forecasts from the Aviation run of the Global Spectral Model nor the shallow-water VICBAR model were improved with the assimilation of the dropwindsonde data. This mediocre result is found to be due mainly to the difficulty in operationally quantifying the storm-motion vector used to create accurate synthetic data to represent the tropical cyclone vortex in the models. A secondary limit on forecast improvements from the surveillance missions is the limited amount of data provided by the one surveillance aircraft in regular missions. The inability of some surveillance missions to surround the tropical cyclone with dropwindsonde observations is a possible

  16. Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-10

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  17. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  18. Tropical Pacific Climate, Carbon, and Ocean Biogeochemical Response to the Central American Seaway in a GFDL Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentman, L. T.; Dunne, J. P.; Stouffer, R. J.; Krasting, J. P.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Toggweiler, J. R.; Broccoli, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    To explore the tropical Pacific climate, carbon, and ocean biogeochemical response to the shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma), we performed a suite of sensitivity experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, GFDL-ESM2G, varying only the seaway widths and sill depths. These novel ESM simulations include near-final closure of the seaway with a very narrow, 1º grid cell wide opening. Net mass transport through the seaway into the Caribbean is 20.5-23.1 Sv with a deep seaway, but only 14.1 Sv for the wide/shallow seaway because of the inter-basin bi-directional horizontal mass transport. Seaway transport originates from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific and rejoins it in the South Atlantic, reducing the Indonesian Throughflow and transporting heat and salt southward into the South Atlantic, in contrast to present-day and previous seaway simulations. Tropical Pacific mean climate and interannual variability is sensitive to the seaway shoaling, with the largest response to the wider/deeper seaway. In the tropical Pacific, the top 300-m warms 0.4-0.8°C, the equatorial east-west sea surface temperature gradient increases, the north-south sea surface temperature asymmetry at 110°W decreases, thermocline deepens 5-11 m, and the east-west thermocline gradient increases. In the Niño-3 region, ENSO amplitude increases, skewed toward more cold (La Niña) events, El Niño and La Niña develops earlier ( 3 months), the annual cycle weakens and the semi-annual and interannual cycles strengthen from increased symmetry of the north-south sea surface temperature gradient, and atmospheric global teleconnections strengthen with the seaway. The increase in global ocean overturning with the seaway results in a younger average ocean ideal age, reduced dissolved inorganic carbon inventory and marine net primary productivity, and altered inter-basin patterns of surface sediment carbonate

  19. Paleoenvironments, Evolution, and Geomicrobiology in a Tropical Pacific Lake: The Lake Towuti Drilling Project (TOWUTI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Hendrik; Russell, James M.; Bijaksana, Satria; Crowe, Sean; Fowle, David; Haffner, Douglas; King, John; Marwoto, Ristiyanti; Melles, Martin; von Rintelen, Thomas; Stevenson, Janelle; Watkinson, Ian; Wattrus, Nigel

    2014-05-01

    Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121°E) is a, 560 km2, 200-m deep tectonic lake at the downstream end of the Malili lake system, a set of five, ancient (1-2 MYr) tectonic lakes in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Lake Towuti's location in central Indonesia provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct long-term paleoclimate change in a crucially important yet understudied region- the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), heart of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Malili Lakes have extraordinarily high rates of floral and faunal endemism, and the lakes are surrounded by one of the most diverse tropical forests on Earth. Drilling in Lake Towuti will identify the age and origin of the lake and the environmental and climatic context that shaped the evolution of this unique lacustrine and terrestrial ecosystem. The ultramafic (ophiolitic) rocks and lateritic soils surrounding Lake Towuti provide metal substrates that feed a diverse, exotic microbial community, analogous to the microbial ecosystems that operated in the Archean Oceans. Drill core will provide unique insight into long-term changes in this ecosystem, as well as microbial processes operating at depth in the sediment column. High-resolution seismic reflection data (CHIRP and airgun) combined with numerous long sediment piston cores collected from 2007-2013 demonstrate the enormous promise of Lake Towuti for an ICDP drilling campaign. Well-stratified sequences of up to 150 m thickness, uninterrupted by unconformities or erosional truncation, are present in multiple sub-basins within Towuti, providing ideal sites for long-term environmental, climatic, and limnological reconstructions. Multiproxy analyses of our piston cores document a continuous and detailed record of moisture balance variations in Lake Towuti during the past 60 kyr BP. In detail our datasets show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems in central Indonesia persisted during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene, and were interrupted by severe

  20. Influence of mesoscale eddies on the distribution of nitrous oxide in the eastern tropical South Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arévalo-Martínez, Damian L.; Kock, Annette; Löscher, Carolin R.; Schmitz, Ruth A.; Stramma, Lothar; Bange, Hermann W.

    2016-02-01

    Recent observations in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) have shown the key role of meso- and submesoscale processes (e.g. eddies) in shaping its hydrographic and biogeochemical properties. Off Peru, elevated primary production from coastal upwelling in combination with sluggish ventilation of subsurface waters fuels a prominent oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Given that nitrous oxide (N2O) production-consumption processes in the water column are sensitive to oxygen (O2) concentrations, the ETSP is a region of particular interest to investigate its source-sink dynamics. To date, no detailed surveys linking mesoscale processes and N2O distributions as well as their relevance to nitrogen (N) cycling are available. In this study, we present the first measurements of N2O across three mesoscale eddies (two mode water or anticyclonic and one cyclonic) which were identified, tracked, and sampled during two surveys carried out in the ETSP in November-December 2012. A two-peak structure was observed for N2O, wherein the two maxima coincide with the upper and lower boundaries of the OMZ, indicating active nitrification and partial denitrification. This was further supported by the abundances of the key gene for nitrification, ammonium monooxygenase (amoA), and the gene marker for N2O production during denitrification, nitrite reductase (nirS). Conversely, we found strong N2O depletion in the core of the OMZ (O2 nitrate (NO3-), thus suggesting active denitrification. N2O depletion within the OMZ's core was substantially higher in the centre of mode water eddies, supporting the view that eddy activity enhances N-loss processes off Peru, in particular near the shelf break where nutrient-rich, productive waters from upwelling are trapped before being transported offshore. Analysis of eddies during their propagation towards the open ocean showed that, in general, "ageing" of mesoscale eddies tends to decrease N2O concentrations through the water column in response to the

  1. Evaluating controls on planktonic foraminiferal geochemistry in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Kelly Ann; Thunell, Robert C.; Machain-Castillo, Maria Luisa; Fehrenbacher, Jennifer; Spero, Howard J.; Wejnert, Kate; Nava-Fernández, Xinantecatl; Tappa, Eric J.

    2016-10-01

    To explore relationships between water column hydrography and foraminiferal geochemistry in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific, we present δ18O and Mg/Ca records from three species of planktonic foraminifera, Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerina bulloides, and Globorotalia menardii, collected from a sediment trap mooring maintained in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 2006-2012. Differences in δ18O between mixed-layer species G. ruber and G. bulloides and thermocline-dweller G. menardii track seasonal changes in upwelling. The records suggest an increase in upwelling during the peak positive phase of El Niño, and an overall reduction in stratification over the six-year period. For all three species, Mg/Ca ratios are higher than what has been reported in previous studies, and show poor correlations to calcification temperature. We suggest that low pH (7.6-8.0) and [3 2-CO] values (∼70-120 μmol/kg) in the mixed layer contribute to an overall trend of higher Mg/Ca ratios in this region. Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Mass Spectrometry analyses of G. bulloides with high Mg/Ca ratios (>9 mmol/mol) reveal the presence of a secondary coating of inorganic calcite that has Mg/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios up to an order of magnitude higher than these elemental ratios in the primary calcite, along with elevated Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios. Some of the samples with abnormally high Mg/Ca are found during periods of high primary productivity, suggesting the alteration may be related to changes in carbonate saturation resulting from remineralization of organic matter in oxygen-poor waters in the water column. Although similar shell layering has been observed on fossil foraminifera, this is the first time such alteration has been studied in shells collected from the water column. Our results suggest a role for seawater carbonate chemistry in influencing foraminiferal calcite trace element:calcium ratios prior to deposition on the seafloor, particularly in high-productivity, low

  2. Pattern Classification of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific using a Fuzzy Clustering Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Ho, C.; Kim, J.

    2008-12-01

    This study presents the pattern classification of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the typhoon season (June through October) for 1965-2006 (total 42 years) using a fuzzy clustering method. After the fuzzy c-mean clustering algorithm to the TC trajectory interpolated into 20 segments of equivalent length, we divided the whole tracks into 7 patterns. The optimal number of the fuzzy cluster is determined by several validity measures. The classified TC track patterns represent quite different features in the recurving latitudes, genesis locations, and geographical pathways: TCs mainly forming in east-northern part of the WNP and striking Korean and Japan (C1); mainly forming in west-southern part of the WNP, traveling long pathway, and partly striking Japan (C2); mainly striking Taiwan and East China (C3); traveling near the east coast of Japan (C4); traveling the distant ocean east of Japan (C5); moving toward South China and Vietnam straightly (C6); and forming in the South China Sea (C7). Atmospheric environments related to each cluster show physically consistent with each TC track patterns. The straight track pattern is closely linked to a developed anticyclonic circulation to the north of the TC. It implies that this ridge acts as a steering flow forcing TCs to move to the northwest with a more west-oriented track. By contrast, recurving patterns occur commonly under the influence of the strong anomalous westerlies over the TC pathway but there definitely exist characteristic anomalous circulations over the mid- latitudes by pattern. Some clusters are closely related to the well-known large-scale phenomena. The C1 and C2 are highly related to the ENSO phase: The TCs in the C1 (C2) is more active during La Niña (El Niño). The TC activity in the C3 is associated with the WNP summer monsoon. The TCs in the C4 is more (less) vigorous during the easterly (westerly) phase of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

  3. Impacts of Potential Aircraft Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define the day in September 2008. (From...green is a tropical depression, yellow is a tropical storm , red is a typhoon, and magenta is an extratropical cyclone. The numbers in each circle define...depended on the location of the observation with respect to the storm and the altitude from which the observation provided a profile of winds

  4. Potential Vorticity Streamers as Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    study a developing system with an extratropical precursor (TCS-037) developing into Tropical Storm 16W (TS 16W)” (Schönenberger 2010). This subsection...tropopause maps), the TC genesis event is termed a tropical transition (TT) case. If no such extratropical feature 38 is present, the storm in... extratropical origin is deemed to play an important role in the dynamical evolution leading to tropical cyclogenesis. In contrast, non-TT storms

  5. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  6. Predicting invertebrate assemblage composition from harvesting pressure and environmental characteristics on tropical reef flats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, H.; Dumas, P.; Ponton, D.; Ferraris, J.

    2012-03-01

    Invertebrates represent an essential component of coral reef ecosystems; they are ecologically important and a major resource, but their assemblages remain largely unknown, particularly on Pacific islands. Understanding their distribution and building predictive models of community composition as a function of environmental variables therefore constitutes a key issue for resource management. The goal of this study was to define and classify the main environmental factors influencing tropical invertebrate distributions in New Caledonian reef flats and to test the resulting predictive model. Invertebrate assemblages were sampled by visual counting during 2 years and 2 seasons, then coupled to different environmental conditions (habitat composition, hydrodynamics and sediment characteristics) and harvesting status (MPA vs. non-MPA and islets vs. coastal flats). Environmental conditions were described by a principal component analysis (PCA), and contributing variables were selected. Permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) was used to test the effects of different factors (status, flat, year and season) on the invertebrate assemblage composition. Multivariate regression trees (MRT) were then used to hierarchically classify the effects of environmental and harvesting variables. MRT model explained at least 60% of the variation in structure of invertebrate communities. Results highlighted the influence of status (MPA vs. non-MPA) and location (islet vs. coastal flat), followed by habitat composition, organic matter content, hydrodynamics and sampling year. Predicted assemblages defined by indicator families were very different for each environment-exploitation scenario and correctly matched a calibration data matrix. Predictions from MRT including both environmental variables and harvesting pressure can be useful for management of invertebrates in coral reef environments.

  7. Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

    1991-01-01

    A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Impact of the intraseasonal variability of large-scale circulation over the Western North Pacific on the characteristics of tropical cyclone track

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, T. C.; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); Yen, M. C.; Clark, A. J.

    2009-01-01

    The life cycle of the Southeast Asian–western North Pacific monsoon circulation is established by the northward migrations of the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone, and is reflected by the intraseasonal variations of mo nsoon westerlies and trad e easterlies in the form of an east–west seesaw oscillation. In this paper, an effort is made to disclose the influence of this monsoon circulation on tropical cyclone tracks during its different ph ases using composite ch...

  9. New records of sabellids and serpulids (Polychaeta: Sabellidae, Serpulidae) from the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolando Bastida-Zavala, J.; Rodriguez Buelna, Alondra Sofia; Angel De Leon-Gonzalez, Jesus

    2016-01-01

    in the large expanse of the central and southern Mexican Pacific. Thus, sabellids and serpulids were collected from several shallow water habitats along the coast of Mexican Pacific, such as coastal lagoons, coral reefs, rocky shores and from man-made structures as marinas, piers and ships of several harbors...

  10. The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, W. E.

    1981-01-01

    The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

  11. Decadal scale droughts over northwestern Thailand over the past 448 years: links to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, Brendan M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Palisades, NY (United States); Palakit, Kritsadapan; Duangsathaporn, Khwanchai [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Laboratory of Tropical Dendrochronology, Bangkok (Thailand); Sanguantham, Prasong; Prasomsin, Patsi [Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Management, Bangkok (Thailand)

    2007-07-15

    A 448-year teak chronology from northwestern Thailand is used to assess past changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. The chronology is based on 30 living trees that extend from 1604 to 2005, and a 47-stump chronology that spans from 1558 to 1903. We used methods of cross dating and chronology building that address problems specifically found in teak. The result is a robust chronology with strong signal strength back to 1600 ad, and with variability retained at the multi-decadal scale. Variability in annual growth in teak from this area is dependent on rainfall and soil moisture availability at both the beginning and end of the monsoon season as confirmed by comparisons with temperature, rainfall and PDSI data. These correlation analyses confirm that our record is a proxy for summer monsoon strength and/or duration, and highlight the importance of soil moisture availability in the seasons of transition. The chronology reveals two prominent periods of decadal-scale drought in the early and mid 1700s that correspond to persistently warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific as derived from Galapagos Island coral records. Speleothem data from central India also indicate protracted periods of drought for the 1700s. While these broad-scale eighteenth-century persistent droughts may be related to protracted El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, regional climate forcing over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific sectors appears to be a strong contributor as well. Spectral analyses reveal power in the ENSO range of variability from 2.2 to 4 years, and at the multi-decadal scale at 48.5 years. (orig.)

  12. Did biogeographical processes shape the monogenean community of butterflyfishes in the tropical Indo-west Pacific region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reverter, M; Cribb, T H; Cutmore, S C; Bray, R A; Parravicini, V; Sasal, P

    2017-07-01

    Geographical distribution of parasite species can provide insights into the evolution and diversity of parasitic communities. Biogeography of marine parasites is poorly known, especially because it requires an understanding of host-parasite interactions, information that is rare, especially over large spatial scales. Here, we have studied the biogeographical patterns of dactylogyrid parasites of chaetodontids, one of the most well-studied fish families, in the tropical Indo-west Pacific region. Dactylogyrid parasites were collected from gills of 34 butterflyfish species (n=560) at nine localities within an approximate area of 62millionkm 2 . Thirteen dactylogyrid species were identified, with richness ranging from 6 to 12 species at individual localities. Most dactylogyrid communities were dominated by Haliotrema angelopterum or Haliotrema aurigae, for which relative abundance was negatively correlated (ρ=-0.59). Parasite richness and diversity were highest in French Polynesia and the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) and lowest in Palau. Three biogeographic regions were identified based on dactylogyrid dissimilarities: French Polynesia, characterised by the dominance of H. angelopterum, the western Pacific region dominated by H. aurigae, and Ningaloo Reef (Australia), dominated by Euryhaliotrema berenguelae. Structure of host assemblages was the main factor explaining the dissimilarity (turnover and nestedness components of the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity and overall Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) of parasite communities between localities, while environment was only significant in the turnover of parasite communities and overall dissimilarity. Spatial structure of localities explained only 10% of the turnover of parasite communities. The interaction of the three factors (host assemblages, environment and spatial structure), however, explained the highest amounts of variance of the dactylogyrid communities, indicating a strong colinearity between the factors. Our findings

  13. Oceanic, Latitudinal, and Sex-Specific Variation in Demography of a Tropical Deepwater Snapper across the Indo-Pacific Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley J. Williams

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Deepwater tropical fisheries provide an important source of income and protein to Pacific and Indian Ocean coastal communities who are highly dependent on fish for food security. The development of quantitative assessments and management strategies for these deepwater fisheries has been hindered by insufficient biological and fisheries data. We examine the age-specific demography of the pygmy ruby snapper Etelis carbunculus, an important target species in tropical deepwater fisheries, across 90° of longitude and 20° of latitude in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Our results show that growth of E. carbunculus varies significantly between oceans and sexes and across latitudes in both oceans. Estimates of natural and fishing mortality were similar between oceans, but higher for females than males in both oceans. Evidence of greater fishing pressure on females than males is likely due to the larger size-at-age of females compared to males, assuming that selectivity of the fishing gear is related directly to fish size. Sex ratios were significantly female biased in both oceans despite this species being gonochoristic, and maturity schedules were similar between sexes in the Pacific Ocean. This species exhibits a protracted spawning season from mid-spring to autumn (i.e., October to May in the Pacific Ocean. These results represent the first estimates of age-specific demographic parameters for E. carbunculus, and provide the foundation for the development of the first species-specific assessment models and harvest strategies for the species. Future stock assessment models for E. carbunculus should consider sex-specific demographic parameters and spatial variation in demography. Our results reveal substantial differences in biology between E. carbunculus and the giant ruby snapper E. sp., a cryptic congeneric species, and thus contribute to greater clarity in managing fisheries that are dependent on these two species. Furthermore, the improved

  14. Spatial variation of the zooplankton community in the western tropical Pacific Ocean during the summer of 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Li, Chaolun; Wang, Yanqing; Wang, Xiaocheng; Dai, Luping; Tao, Zhencheng; Ji, Peng

    2017-03-01

    Knowledge of the zooplankton community in the western tropical Pacific Ocean is poor compared to that of the communities in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The zooplankton composition, abundance, biomass and community structure in the western Pacific Ocean were studied based on data collected during a synoptic cruise (August-September 2014). Four zooplankton communities were determined via cluster analysis, and these four clusters were mainly spatially related to four different currents: the Luzon Current (LC), Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC), North Equatorial Current (NEC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). The estimated mean abundance and biomass of the zooplankton for the whole surveyed area were 146.7±178.1 ind/m3 and 36.9±40.3 mg/m3, respectively. The zooplankton abundance was dominated by small copepods, such as Clausocalanus furcatus, C. pergens, Oncaea mediterranea and Oithona plumifera. The zooplankton abundance and biomass values were lowest in the STCC region and highest in the NECC region. BEST analysis based on surface environmental factors showed that chlorophyll a (chl a), pH, temperature and salinity were the environmental variables that best explained the distribution pattern of the zooplankton community (pw=0.372). The zooplankton abundance was higher south of the salinity front at 16°N, in accordance with the relatively higher nutrient and chl a levels. Maximum zooplankton biomass was found in regions on the periphery of the cyclonic Mindanao Eddy (ME) and anticyclonic Halmahera Eddy (HE).

  15. Spatiotemporal change of intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño and La Niña events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Renguang; Song, Lei

    2018-02-01

    The present study analyzes the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) intensity change over the tropical Indo-Pacific associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and compares the intensity change between El Niño and La Niña years and between the 10-20-day and 30-60-day ISOs. The ISO intensity change tends to be opposite between El Niño and La Niña years in the developing and mature phases. The intensity change features a contrast between the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean and the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) in the developing phases and between the Maritime Continent and the tropical central Pacific in the mature phase. In the decaying phases, the intensity change shows notable differences between El Niño and La Niña events and between fast and slow decaying El Niño events. Large intensity change is observed over the tropical WNP in the developing summer, over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean in the developing fall, and over the tropical WNP in the fast decaying El Niño summer due to a combined effect of vertical shear, vertical motion, and lower-level moisture. In the ENSO developing summer and in the El Niño decaying summer, the 10-20-day ISO intensity change displays a northwest-southeast tilted distribution over the tropical WNP, whereas the large 30-60-day ISO intensity change is confined to the off-equatorial WNP. In the La Niña decaying summer, the 30-60-day ISO intensity change features a large zonal contrast across the Philippines, whereas the 10-20-day ISO intensity anomaly is characterized by a north-south contrast over the tropical WNP.

  16. Development of Lightning Observation Network in the Western Pacific Region for the Intensity Prediction of Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Yamashita, K.; Kubota, H.; Hamada, J. I.; Momota, E.; Marciano, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Lightning activity represents the thunderstorm activity, that is, the precipitation and/or updraft intensity and area. Thunderstorm activity is also an important parameter in terms of the energy inputs from the ocean to the atmosphere inside tropical cyclone, which is one of severe weather events. Recent studies suggest that it is possible to predict the maximum wind velocity and minimum pressure near the center of the tropical cyclone by one or two days before if we monitor the lightning activities in the tropical cyclone. Many countries in the western Pacific region suffer from the attack of tropical cyclone (typhoon) and have a strong demand to predict the intensity development of typhoons. Thus, we started developing a new lightning observation system and installing the observation system at Guam, Palau, and Manila in the Philippines from this summer. The lightning observation system consists of a VLF sensor detecting lightning-excited electromagnetic waves in the frequency range of 1-5 kHz, an automatic data-processing unit, solar panels, and batteries. Lightning-excited pulse signals detected by the VLF sensor are automatically analyzed by the data-processing unit, and only the extracted information of the trigger time and pulse amplitude is transmitted to a data server via the 3G data communications. In addition, we are now developing an upgraded lightning and weather observation system, which will be installed at 50 automated weather stations in Metro Manila and 10 radar sites in the Philippines under the 5-year project (SATREPS) scheme. At the presentation, we will show the initial results derived from the lightning observation system in detail and will show the detailed future plan of the SATREPS project.

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Pacific Transition Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific Transition teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  18. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Daily Pacific North American Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) is one of the leading teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as a Rotated...

  19. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  20. Prediction Center (CPC) Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Western Pacific Basin Cyclone Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Tropical cyclones are one of the nature?s destructive phenomena, causing loss of lives and property damage. The affected countries associated with the cyclones of...

  2. Predicting Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy According to the Powell/Reinhold Scale

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A method of predicting the destructive capacity of a tropical cyclone based on a new Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP)...

  3. Variability of radiatively forced diurnal cycle of intense convection in the tropical west pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, W.M.; Sheaffer, J.D.; Thorson, W.B. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Strong differences occur in daytime versus nighttime (DVN) net radiative cooling in clear versus cloudy areas of the tropical atmosphere. Daytime average cooling is approximately -0.7{degrees}C/day, whereas nighttime net tropospheric cooling rates are about -1.5{degrees}C/day, an approximately two-to-one difference. The comparatively strong nocturnal cooling in clear areas gives rise to a diurnally varying vertical circulation and horizontal convergence cycle. Various manifestations of this cyclic process include the observed early morning heavy rainfall maxima over the tropical oceans. The radiatively driven DVN circulation appears to strongly modulate the resulting diurnal cycle of intense convection which creates the highest, coldest cloudiness over maritime tropical areas and is likely a fundamental mechanism governing both small and large scale dynamics over much of the tropical environment.

  4. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

    2017-09-01

    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  5. Modulation of the intraseasonal Indo-western Pacific convection oscillation to tropical cyclogenesis location and frequency over the Indo-western North Pacific during boreal extended summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuyun; Li, Jianping; Li, Yanjie; Zhang, Jingwen

    2017-04-01

    The influence of the intraseasonal Indo-western Pacific convection oscillation (IPCO) on the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis location and frequency over the Indo-western North Pacific during the boreal extended summer (May-October) is explored in this paper. Observational analysis shows that the impacts of the intraseasonal IPCO on TCs over the Indo-western North Pacific features in evident "locational phase lock of TC genesis" and distinct differences in TC frequency. In term of the WNP, when the intraseasonal IPCO is positive phase, there tends to be much more TCs, especially in the South China Sea (SCS), and more TCs generate in the west of the WNP and lower latitude (around 5°-20°N); vice versa. At the positive intraseasonal IPCO phase, the atmosphere gains heat through both sea-air interaction and the latent heat release of cumulus convective condensation, and the anomalous cyclonic circulation weakens the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), these conditions do favor the TC genesis. Moreover, the shrinking WPSH, the enhanced heat transfer from sea to air at the lower latitude as well as the westward shifts of heating center and anomalous cyclonic circulation lock TC genesis locations in the west of the WNP and lower latitude. The opposite situation occurs at negative phase. As for the North Indian Ocean (NIO), the TC genesis locations at the positive intraseasonal IPCO phase mainly situate in 13°-20°N and distribute closer to Indian Peninsula, particularly in the Arabian Sea (ARB), in contrast, the spatial distribution is more dispersed at the negative intraseasonal IPCO phase. However, the total TC frequencies at two intraseasonal IPCO phases are similar. These features come largely from the differences in the area featuring conditions between the northern and southern regions of 13°N in the NIO: at the positive intraseasonal IPCO phase, to the northern region of 13°N, the environmental conditions are similar to the case of the WNP except without the

  6. Dissolved iron anomaly in the deep tropical-subtropical Pacific: Evidence for long-range transport of hydrothermal iron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jingfeng; Wells, Mark L.; Rember, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Dissolved iron profiles along a north-south transect along 158°W in the tropical Pacific show evidence of two deepwater anomalies. The first extends from Station ALOHA (22.78°N) to the equator at ˜1000-1500 m and lies below the maximum apparent oxygen utilization and nutrient (N, P) concentrations. The feature is not supported by vertical export processes, but instead corresponds with the lateral dilution field of δ 3He derived from the Loihi seamount, Hawaii, though a sediment source associated with the Hawaiian Island Chain cannot be entirely ruled out. The second, deeper (2000-3000 m) anomaly occurs in tropical South Pacific waters (7°S) and also does not correlate with the depths of maximum nutrient concentrations or apparent oxygen utilization, but it does coincide closely with δ 3He emanating from the East Pacific Rise, more than 5000 km to the east. We hypothesize that these anomalies represent the long-range (>2000 km) transport of hydrothermal iron residuals, stabilized against scavenging by complexation with excess organic ligands in the plume source regions. Such trace leakage of hydrothermal iron to distal plume regions would have been difficult to identify in most hydrothermal vent mapping studies because low analytical detection limits were not needed for the proximal plume regions. These findings suggest that hydrothermal activity may represent a major source of dissolved iron throughout the South Pacific deep basin today, as well as other regions having high mid-ocean spreading rates in the geologic past. In particular, we hypothesize that high spreading rates along the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean mid-oceanic ridges, combined with the upwelling ventilation of these distal hydrothermal plumes, may have increased ocean productivity and carbon export in the Southern Ocean. Assessing the magnitude and persistence of dissolved hydrothermal iron in basin scale deep waters will be important for understanding the marine biogeochemistry of iron

  7. ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

    2015-12-18

    Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other.

  8. Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level and Linear Model Results forced by Various Wind Products for the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to compare TOPEX/Posaidon (T/P) sea level with sea level results from linear ocean model experiments forced by several different wind products for the tropical Pacific. During the period of this study (October 1992 - October 1995), available wind products include satellite winds from the ERS-1 scatterometer product of [HALP 97] and the passive microwave analysis of SSMI winds produced using the variational analysis method (VAM) of [ATLA 91]. In addition, atmospheric GCM winds from the NCEP reanalysis [KALN 96], ECMWF analysis [ECMW94], and the Goddard EOS-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis experiment [SCHU 93] are available for comparison. The observed ship wind analysis of FSU [STRI 92] is also included in this study. The linear model of [CANE 84] is used as a transfer function to test the quality of each of these wind products for the tropical Pacific. The various wind products are judged by comparing the wind-forced model sea level results against the T/P sea level anomalies. Correlation and RMS difference maps show how well each wind product does in reproducing the T/P sea level signal. These results are summarized in a table showing area average correlations and RMS differences. The large-scale low-frequency temporal signal is reproduced by all of the wind products, However, significant differences exist in both amplitude and phase on regional scales. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds do a better job reproducing the T/P signal (i.e. have a higher average correlation and lower RMS difference) than the results forced by atmospheric model winds.

  9. Annual egg production rates of calanoid copepod species on the continental shelf of the Eastern Tropical Pacific off Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozak, Eva R.; Franco-Gordo, Carmen; Palomares-García, Ricardo; Gómez-Gutiérrez, Jaime; Suárez-Morales, Eduardo

    2017-01-01

    We provide the first estimations of calanoid copepod egg production rates (EPR) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific over an annual cycle (January-December 2011). Gravid females were collected twice monthly and incubated for 12 h without food to estimate EPR, weight-specific fecundity (Gf), spawning success (SS, percentage of females to spawn out of the total species incubated per month and season) and egg hatching success (EHS). This study reports the average EPR of 10 species and the monthly EPR and Gf of four planktonic calanoid copepods (Centropages furcatus, Temora discaudata, Pontellina sobrina, and Nannocalanus minor) that spawned with enough frequency to infer their seasonal reproductive patterns. These species showed distinct seasonal reproductive strategies. Most copepod species spawned sporadically with large EPR variability, while three copepod species reproduced throughout the year (C. furcatus, T. discaudata and P. sobrina) and N. minor spawned only during the mixed period (Feb-May). The four species had relatively similar average EPR (C. furcatus 16, T. discaudata 18, P. sobrina 13, and N. minor 12 eggs fem-1 day-1). These are the first EPR estimations of P. sobrina and its previously known reproductive period is expanded. A Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to analyze EPR and species abundance of all calanoid copepods (40 spp.) collected throughout the time series in relation to temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth (MLD), dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations to identify the variables that best explained the copepod abundance variability. Temperature, Chl-a, and salinity had the strongest effect on the biological variables, linked to seasonal and episodic upwelling-downwelling processes in the surveyed area. As a result of moderate upwelling events and seasonal variation of environmental conditions, it appears relatively few species are capable of maintaining continuous reproduction under the relatively higher

  10. Cold trap dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer characterised by SOWER chilled-mirror hygrometer network data in the Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hasebe

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A network of balloon-borne radiosonde observations employing chilled-mirror hygrometers for water and electrochemical concentration cells for ozone has been operated since the late 1990s in the Tropical Pacific to capture the evolution of dehydration of air parcels advected quasi-horizontally in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL. The analysis of this dataset is made on isentropes taking advantage of the conservative properties of tracers moving adiabatically. The existence of ice particles is diagnosed by lidars simultaneously operated with sonde flights. Characteristics of the TTL dehydration are presented on the basis of individual soundings and statistical features. Supersaturations close to 80% in relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice have been observed in subvisible cirrus clouds located near the cold point tropopause at extremely low temperatures around 180 K. Although further observational evidence is needed to confirm the credibility of such high values of RHice, the evolution of TTL dehydration is evident from the data in isentropic scatter plots between the sonde-observed mixing ratio (OMR and the minimum saturation mixing ratio (SMRmin along the back trajectories associated with the observed air mass. Supersaturation exceeding the critical value of homogeneous ice nucleation (OMR > 1.6 × SMRmin is frequently observed on the 360 and 365 K surfaces indicating that cold trap dehydration is in progress in the TTL. The near correspondence between the two (OMR ~ SMRmin at 380 K on the other hand implies that this surface is not sufficiently cold for the advected air parcels to be dehydrated. Above 380 K, cold trap dehydration would scarcely function while some moistening occurs before the air parcels reach the lowermost stratosphere at around 400 K where OMR is generally smaller than SMRmin.

  11. Trace gas concentrations, intertropical convergence, atmospheric fronts, and ocean currents in the tropical Pacific m(Paper 8C1060)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkniss, P.E.; Rodgers, E.B.; Swinnerton, J.W.; Larson, R.E.; Lamontagne, R.A.

    1979-01-01

    Shipboard measurements of atmospheric 222 Rn, CO, and CH 4 and of dissolved CO in surface waters have been carried out in the equatorial Pacific on a cruise from Ecuador to Hawaii, Tahiti and Panama in March and April of 1974, and during transit from Los Angeles to Antarctica in November and December of 1972. The trace gas results, combined with conventional meteorological data and with satellite images from Nimbus 5 and the defense meteorological satellite project (DMSP), have provided descriptions of the intertropical convergence zones (ITCZ) near 04 0 N, 102 0 W and 03 0 N, 154 0 W in March of 1974, near 04 0 N, 86 0 W in April of 1974, and near 05 0 N, 139 0 W in November of 1972. In all cases the ITCZ seems to be located north of the south equatorial current (SEC) as shown by dissolved CO peaks in surface waters. In April of 1974 a 'second' ITCZ was observed near 01 0 S, 102 0 W just south of the SEC. A stationary front near Hawaii (20 0 N, 147 0 W) in March of 1974 was investigated. The ITCZ was marked by light shifting winds near a zone of heavy cloud cover and precipitation. In the eastern Tropical Pacific atmospheric 222 Rn increases distinctly north of the ITCZ and thus serves as an indicator for the ITCZ. CO and CH 4 do not always increase coincident with atmospheric 222 Rn. The atmospheric features of the stationary front near Hawaii are in many ways similar to those observed for the ITCZ. The front is marked by cloud cover, precipitation zone and light shifting winds. 222 Rn, CO and CH 4 increase signifantly behind the front in subsiding air which was traced back to the Asian continent. The variation of atmospheric 222 Rn, CO and CH 4 with time and geographical area over the equatorial Pacific seems to be a consequence of seasonal variations of the trade wind field and long range transport to the central Pacific from Asia and to the eastern equatorial Pacific from North and Central America

  12. Oxygen distribution and aerobic respiration in the north and south eastern tropical Pacific oxygen minimum zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiano, Laura; Garcia-Robledo, Emilio; Dalsgaard, Tage

    2014-01-01

    was generally below the detection limit (few nmol L-1) in the core of both OMZs, suggesting the presence of vast volumes of functionally anoxic waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Oxygen was often not detectable in the deep secondary chlorophyll maximum found at some locations, but other secondary maxima...

  13. Notes on some sertulariid hydroids (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa from the tropical western Pacific, with descriptions of nine new species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horia R. Galea

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Forty-three species of sertulariid hydroids (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa: Sertulariidae, collected from the tropical western Pacific (Taiwan, Philippines, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Solomon Islands during various expeditions of the French Tropical Deep-Sea Benthos program, are discussed. Of these, nine are new to science: Gonaxia nova sp. nov., G. plumularioides sp. nov., Sertularella folliformis sp. nov., Se. plicata sp. nov., Se. pseudocatena sp. nov., Se. splendida sp. nov., Se. tronconica sp. nov., Se. tubulosa sp. nov., and Symplectoscyphus paucicatillus sp. nov. The subspecies Symplectoscyphus johnstoni (Gray, 1843 tropicus Vervoort, 1993 is raised to species but, in order to avoid the secondary homonymy with Sy. tropicus (Hartlaub, 1901, the replacement name, Sy. fasciculatus nom. nov., is introduced. The male and female gonothecae of Diphasia cristata Billard, 1920, the male gonothecae of Gonaxia elegans Vervoort, 1993, as well as the female gonothecae of Salacia macer Vervoort & Watson, 2003, are described for the first time. Additional notes on the morphology of several other species are provided. All taxa are illustrated, in most cases using figures drawn at the same scale, so as to highlight the differences between related species.

  14. A new Lepeophtheirus (Copepoda: Siphonostomatoida: Caligidae from Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Suárez-Morales

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several groups of copepods that are teleost parasites, the siphonostomatoid family Caligidae is by far the most widespread and diverse. With more than 108 nominal species, the caligid genus Lepeophtheirus von Nordmann is one of the most speciose. There are no reports of this genus in Costa Rican waters. A new species of Lepeophtheirus is herein described based on female specimens collected from plankton samples in waters off Bahía Wafer, isla del Coco, an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The new species, L. alvaroi sp. nov., has some affinities with other congeners bearing a relatively short abdomen, a wider than long genital complex and a 3-segmented exopod of leg 4. it differs from most of these species by the presence of an unbranched maxillular process and by the relative lengths of the terminal claws of leg 4, with two equally long elements. it is most closely related to two other Eastern Pacific species: L. dissimulatus Wilson, 1905 and L. clarionensis Shiino, 1959. it differs from these species by the proportions and shape of the genital complex, the shape of the sternal furca, the relative length of the maxillar segments, the absence of a pectiniform process on the distal maxillar segment, the length of leg 4 and the armature of leg 5. The new species represents the first Lepeophtheirus described from Costa Rican waters of the Pacific. The low diversity of this genus in this tropi- cal region is explained by its tendency to prefer hosts from temperate latitudes. Until further evidence is found, the host of this Lepeophtheirus species remains unknown.

  15. Tropical forestry research at the USDA Forest Service's Institute of Pacific Island Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Eugene Conrad; Jerry A. Sesco

    1992-01-01

    Deforestation during the last decade has grown at an alarming rate, giving rise to concern for its potential adverse effects on global climate. The impetus for focusing greater emphasis on tropical forestry management and research was provided by the International Forestry Cooperation Act enacted into law in 1990. The Act enables the Forest Service to intensify its...

  16. Whole-island carbon stocks in the tropical Pacific: Implications for mangrove conservation and upland restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.C. Donato; J.B. Kauffman; R.A. Mackenzie; A. Ainsworth; A.Z. Pfleeger

    2012-01-01

    Management of forest carbon (C) stocks is an increasingly prominent land-use issue. Knowledge of carbon storage in tropical forests is improving, but regional variations are still poorly understood, and this constrains forest management and conservation efforts associated with carbon valuation mechanisms (e.g., carbon markets). This deficiency is especially pronounced...

  17. Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

  18. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  19. A multi-scale study of the dynamical processes of the tropical Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, Autumn Noel

    In recent years, it has been observed that there are different types of El Nino events. The warm events can be divided into two categories: those centered in the central Pacific (CP) and those centered in the eastern Pacific (EP). We examined the variability of western Pacific warm pool (WP) horizontal migration and size from January 1982 to December 2011 by applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Hilbert Huang Spectrum (HHS) to the optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (OISST) data set. The analysis shows that the long-term residual trend of the zonal centroid movement is migrating to the west by 3.78 from the mean location during the past 30 years. The size of the warm pool has also increased 18% during this period. These analysis techniques isolated two separate time series for the migration of the zonal component of the WPWP for both CP and EP events and showed that these two types of El Nino generally operate at different time-scales. The EP time-series shows the strong traditional EP El Nino and the transition between strong El Nino conditions and La Nina conditions. The CP time-series shows that CP El Ninos occur more often than EP El Ninos. The changes of the El Nino type in conjunction with westward drift and increasing warm pool size shows an interesting multidecadal change in the warm pool.

  20. Description of two new associated infaunal decapod crustaceans (Axianassidae and Alpheidae from the tropical eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Anker

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Two new species of infaunal decapod crustaceans are described based on material collected in Bahía Málaga, Pacific coast of Colombia, in 2009. The mud-shrimp Axianassa darrylfelderi sp. nov. (Axianassidae appears to be most closely related to A. australis Rodrigues & Shimizu, 1992, A. canalis Kensley & Heard, 1990, and A. jamaicensis Kensley & Heard, 1990. The new species may be distinguished from each of them by a combination of morphological features, mainly on the uropodal exopod, antennal acicle, third maxilliped and first pleonite. The shrimp Leptalpheus canterakintzi sp. nov. (Alpheidae, associated with burrows of A. darrylfelderi sp. nov., undoubtedly represents the eastern Pacific sister species of the western Atlantic L. axianassae Dworschak & Coelho, 1999, which lives exclusively in burrows of A. australis. The two species are reliably distinguishable only by the proportions of the merus and propodus of the third pereiopod. Leptalpheus azuero Anker, 2011, previously known only from the Pacific coast of Panama, is reported for the first time from Bahía Málaga, Colombia.

  1. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

    2018-03-01

    We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

  2. Fatty acids profile and nutritional composition of two tropical diatoms from the Costa Rican Pacific Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rodríguez-Núñez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Microalgae represent an important nutritional source for diverse organisms, therefore, their nutritional value, and more specifically, total lipid and fatty acid contents, must be considered. This study evaluated the nutritional contents and potential growth under controlled conditions of Nitzschia sp. and Chaetoceros sp. Tropical microalgae, isolated from the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica. In both strains, the nutritional composition and the fatty acid profile were evaluated in exponential and stationary phases. With regards to fatty acids, v sp. had more Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA in both the exponential (32.80% and stationary (27.20% phases. The results in growth rate, production and biochemical composition indicated two tropical microalgae strains suitable for cultivation under controlled conditions. The studies of the phytoplankton in this geographical area is highly relevant because of its importance in the primary production of nutrients and the importance of finding sources of fatty acids such as the EPA.

  3. Fatty acids profile and nutritional composition of two tropical diatoms from the Costa Rican Pacific Coast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez-Núñez, K.; Toledo-Aguero, P.

    2017-01-01

    Microalgae represent an important nutritional source for diverse organisms, therefore, their nutritional value, and more specifically, total lipid and fatty acid contents, must be considered. This study evaluated the nutritional contents and potential growth under controlled conditions of Nitzschia sp. and Chaetoceros sp. Tropical microalgae, isolated from the Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica. In both strains, the nutritional composition and the fatty acid profile were evaluated in exponential and stationary phases. With regards to fatty acids, Nitzschia sp. had more Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) in both the exponential (32.80%) and stationary (27.20%) phases. The results in growth rate, production and biochemical composition indicated two tropical microalgae strains suitable for cultivation under controlled conditions. The studies of the phytoplankton in this geographical area is highly relevant because of its importance in the primary production of nutrients and the importance of finding sources of fatty acids such as the EPA. [es

  4. Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Jae-Won; Cha, Yumi; Kim, Hae-Dong; Kang, Sung-Dae

    2016-01-01

    This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis results found that the latitude of the TC maximum intensity increased from 1999. To investigate the reason behind this phenomenon, the difference of the average latitude between 1999 and 2013 and the average between 1977 and 1998 was analyzed. In a difference of 500 hPa streamline between the two ...

  5. Where are the tropical plants? A call for better inclusion of tropical plants in studies investigating and predicting the effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth J Feeley

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical plant species are systematically underrepresented in large-scale analyses or synthesis looking at the potential effects of global climate change.  The reason being that we simply don’t know enough about the distributions and ecologies of most tropical plant species to predict their fate under climate change. This gaping hole in our knowledge is extremely worrisome given the high diversity of tropical plants, the crucial roles that they play in supporting global diversity and ecosystem function, and the elevated threats that climate change may pose to tropical species in general.  

  6. Isotopic composition of nitrate in the central Arabian Sea and eastern tropical North Pacific: A tracer for mixing and nitrogen cycles

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Brandes, J.A.; Devol, A.H.; Yoshinari, T.; Jayakumar, D.A.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    Trench. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Cali- fornia, Los Angeles. -. AND I. R. KAPLAN. 1975. Isotopic fractionation of dissolved nitrate during denitrification in the eastern tropical North Pa- cific. Mar. Chem. 3: 271-299. CODISPOTI, L. A., AND J. P....-K. 1979. Geochemistry of inorganic nitrogen compounds in two marine environments: The Santa Barbara basin and the ocean off Peru. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of California, Los Angeles. -, AND I. R. KAPLAN. 1989. The eastern tropical Pacific as a source of 15N...

  7. Physical, chemical and biological CTD and bottle data from R/V Thomas G. Thompson cruise TN278 in eastern tropical North Pacific Ocean from March 19 to April 20, 2012 (NODC Accession 0109846)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report contains data from R/V Thomas G. Thompson cruise TN278 to the eastern tropical north pacific oxygen deficient zone. The objective of the cruise was to...

  8. Physical, Chemical, and Biological CTD and Bottle data from NATHANIEL B. PALMER in Eastern Tropical South Pacific Ocean near Peru/Chile from 2013-06-24 to 2013-07-22 (NCEI Accession 0128141)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report contains data from R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP 1305 to the eastern tropical south pacific oxygen deficient zone. The objective of the cruise was...

  9. Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi

    2017-02-01

    Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600-1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions.

  10. Anomalous summer climate in China influenced by the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weng, Hengyi; Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Behera, Swadhin K. [Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Yamagata, Toshio [Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama (Japan); Graduate School of Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

    2011-02-15

    Possible influences of three coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, El Nino, El Nino Modoki and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on summer climate in China are studied based on data analysis for the summers of 1951-2007. Partial correlation/regression analysis is used to find the influence paths through the related anomalous mid- and low-level tropospheric circulations over the oceanic region and East Eurasia, including the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM). Among the three phenomena, El Nino Modoki has the strongest relationship with the WNPSM. When two or three phenomena coexist with either positive or negative phase, the influences exerted by one phenomenon on summer climate in different regions of China may be enhanced or weakened by other phenomena. In 1994 when both El Nino Modoki and IOD are prominent without El Nino, a strong WNPSM is associated with severe flooding in southern China and severe drought in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The 500 hPa high systems over China are responsible for heat waves in most parts of China. In 1983 when a strong negative phase of El Nino Modoki is accompanied by moderate El Nino and IOD, a weak WNPSM is associated with severe flooding in the YRV and severe drought in southern China. The 500 hPa low systems over China are responsible for the cold summer in the YRV and northeastern China. For rainfall, the influence path seems largely through the low-level tropospheric circulations including the WNPSM. For temperature, the influence path seems largely through the mid-level tropospheric circulations over East Eurasia/western North Pacific Ocean. (orig.)

  11. A new Lepeophtheirus (Copepoda: Siphonostomatoida: Caligidae from Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Suárez-Morales

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Among the several groups of copepods that are teleost parasites, the siphonostomatoid family Caligidae is by far the most widespread and diverse. With more than 108 nominal species, the caligid genus Lepeophtheirus von Nordmann is one of the most speciose. There are no reports of this genus in Costa Rican waters. A new species of Lepeophtheirus is herein described based on female specimens collected from plankton samples in waters off Bahía Wafer, isla del Coco, an oceanic island in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The new species, L. alvaroi sp. nov., has some affinities with other congeners bearing a relatively short abdomen, a wider than long genital complex and a 3-segmented exopod of leg 4. it differs from most of these species by the presence of an unbranched maxillular process and by the relative lengths of the terminal claws of leg 4, with two equally long elements. it is most closely related to two other Eastern Pacific species: L. dissimulatus Wilson, 1905 and L. clarionensis Shiino, 1959. it differs from these species by the proportions and shape of the genital complex, the shape of the sternal furca, the relative length of the maxillar segments, the absence of a pectiniform process on the distal maxillar segment, the length of leg 4 and the armature of leg 5. The new species represents the first Lepeophtheirus described from Costa Rican waters of the Pacific. The low diversity of this genus in this tropi- cal region is explained by its tendency to prefer hosts from temperate latitudes. Until further evidence is found, the host of this Lepeophtheirus species remains unknown.Entre los varios grupos de copépodos que son parásitos de teleósteos, la familia sifonostomatoide Caligidae incluye los más dispersos y diversos. Con más de 108 especies nominales, el género de calígidos Lepeophtheirus von Nordmann es uno de los más diversos. No existen registros previos de este género en aguas de Costa Rica. Se describe una nueva especie de

  12. Seasonal signatures in the physical properties of a tropical estuary in the central america pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Brenes, C. L.; Benavides, R.; Ballestero, D.

    2013-01-01

    A hydrographic survey was carried out in the Jaltepeque estuary in the Pacific coast of El Salvador. From September 2005 to March 2006, 10 sampling stations were occupied to measure temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and turbidity. Surface temperatures between 27 and 30.6 °C were observed during the survey, with extreme temporal variations close to 3°C. Minimum temperatures occur in October and February. Surface salinity shows a clear seasonal cycle, with values greater than 30 o/oo duri...

  13. Shredders are abundant and species-rich in tropical continental-island low-order streams: Gorgona Island, Tropical Eastern Pacific, Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnolia Longo

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Macroinvertebrate shredders may have been overlooked in tropical streams due to the geographical bias of early studies, methodological limitations, and the complex influences of local-scale factors. While shredders seem to be scarce in most oceanic island streams, we here test if they are abundant in a continental island. Gut content analyses of benthic macroinvertebrates were used to identify shredding taxa in streams located in different types of forest in Gorgona Island (Tropical Eastern Pacific. General dietary overlap (GO was quantified and relative biomass, relative frequency and the leaf litter percentage in the guts were used to establish the relative importance of each taxon in the shredding guild. Various indices were used to identify the spatial arrangement (i.e. contagious or random of each taxon and shredding guild among streams. We identified 31 shredding taxa that were divided into specialist-shredders (14 taxa, generalist-shredders (10, and collector-shredders (7. There was a complete GO (0.75, p<0.001 for the guild. Cockroaches (Epilampra were the most represented shredders due to the greatest contribution to guild total biomass and to the highest content of leaf litter in their guts. These organisms were more important than shrimps and crabs in terms of abundance and biomass in leaf pack samples. Potimirin shrimps ranked second and Stenochironomus midges ranked third. Among aquatic insects, other secondarily important species were Leptohyphes (Ephemeroptera, Macrelmis, Anchytarsus and Tetraglosa (Coleoptera. Ten taxa exhibited contagious spatial pattern and twenty-one exhibited a random distribution. Resource distribution (i.e., leaf packs between streams was random too. The guild was contagiously distributed, but this result could be highly influenced by the taxa with contagious distribution. Mean abundance, richness and mean biomass of shredders were not significantly correlated with any of the environmental variables

  14. Assimilation of Long-Range Lightning Data over the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    convective rainfall analyses over the Pacific, and (iii) to improve marine prediction of cyclogenesis of both tropical and extratropical cyclones through...data over the North Pacific Ocean, refine the relationships between lightning and storm hydrometeor characteristics, and assimilate lightning...unresolved storm -scale areas of deep convection over the data-sparse open oceans. Diabatic heating sources, especially latent heat release in deep

  15. Spatial variability of phytoplankton pigment distributions in the Subtropical South Pacific Ocean: comparison between in situ and predicted data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ras

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available In the frame of the BIOSOPE cruise in 2004, the spatial distribution and structure of phytoplankton pigments was investigated along a transect crossing the ultra-oligotrophic South Pacific Subtropical Gyre (SPSG between the Marquesas Archipelago (141° W–8° S and the Chilean upwelling (73° W–34° S. A High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC method was improved in order to be able to accurately quantify pigments over such a large range of trophic levels, and especially from strongly oligotrophic conditions. Seven diagnostic pigments were associated to three phytoplankton size classes (pico-, nano and microphytoplankton. The total chlorophyll-α concentrations [TChlα] in surface waters were the lowest measured in the centre of the gyre, reaching 0.017 mg m−3. Pigment concentrations at the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM were generally 10 fold the surface values. Results were compared to predictions from a global parameterisation based on remotely sensed surface [TChlα]. The agreement between the in situ and predicted data for such contrasting phytoplankton assemblages was generally good: throughout the oligotrophic gyre system, picophytoplankton (prochlorophytes and cyanophytes and nanophytoplankton were the dominant classes. Relative bacteriochlorophyll-α concentrations varied around 2%. The transition zone between the Marquesas and the SPSG was also well predicted by the model. However, some regional characteristics have been observed where measured and modelled data differ. Amongst these features is the extreme depth of the DCM (180 m towards the centre of the gyre, the presence of a deep nanoflagellate population beneath the DCM or the presence of a prochlorophyte-enriched population in the formation area of the high salinity South Pacific Tropical Water. A coastal site sampled in the eutrophic upwelling zone, characterised by recently upwelled water, was significantly and unusually enriched in picoeucaryotes, in

  16. N2 fixation as a dominant new N source in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean (OUTPACE cruise)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffin, Mathieu; Moutin, Thierry; Foster, Rachel Ann; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale; Michelangelo Doglioli, Andrea; Berthelot, Hugo; Guieu, Cécile; Grosso, Olivier; Helias-Nunige, Sandra; Leblond, Nathalie; Gimenez, Audrey; Petrenko, Anne Alexandra; de Verneil, Alain; Bonnet, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    We performed nitrogen (N) budgets in the photic layer of three contrasting stations representing different trophic conditions in the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) Ocean during austral summer conditions (February-March 2015). Using a Lagrangian strategy, we sampled the same water mass for the entire duration of each long-duration (5 days) station, allowing us to consider only vertical exchanges for the budgets. We quantified all major vertical N fluxes both entering (N2 fixation, nitrate turbulent diffusion, atmospheric deposition) and leaving the photic layer (particulate N export). The three stations were characterized by a strong nitracline and contrasted deep chlorophyll maximum depths, which were lower in the oligotrophic Melanesian archipelago (MA, stations LD A and LD B) than in the ultra-oligotrophic waters of the South Pacific Gyre (SPG, station LD C). N2 fixation rates were extremely high at both LD A (593 ± 51 µmol N m-2 d-1) and LD B (706 ± 302 µmol N m-2 d-1), and the diazotroph community was dominated by Trichodesmium. N2 fixation rates were lower (59 ± 16 µmol N m-2 d-1) at LD C, and the diazotroph community was dominated by unicellular N2-fixing cyanobacteria (UCYN). At all stations, N2 fixation was the major source of new N (> 90 %) before atmospheric deposition and upward nitrate fluxes induced by turbulence. N2 fixation contributed circa 13-18 % of primary production in the MA region and 3 % in the SPG water and sustained nearly all new primary production at all stations. The e ratio (e ratio = particulate carbon export / primary production) was maximum at LD A (9.7 %) and was higher than the e ratio in most studied oligotrophic regions (leading to N accumulation in the upper layer appears as a characteristic of the WTSP during the summer season.

  17. Association of whale sharks (Rhincodon typus) with thermo-biological frontal systems of the eastern tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, John P; Green, Jonathan R; Espinoza, Eduardo; Hearn, Alex R

    2017-01-01

    Satellite tracking of 27 whale sharks in the eastern tropical Pacific, examined in relation to environmental data, indicates preferential occupancy of thermo-biological frontal systems. In these systems, thermal gradients are caused by wind-forced circulation and mixing, and biological gradients are caused by associated nutrient enrichment and enhanced primary productivity. Two of the frontal systems result from upwelling, driven by divergence in the current systems along the equator and the west coast of South America; the third results from wind jet dynamics off Central America. All whale sharks were tagged near Darwin Island, Galápagos, within the equatorial Pacific upwelling system. Occupancy of frontal habitat is pronounced in synoptic patterns of shark locations in relation to serpentine, temporally varying thermal fronts across a zonal expanse > 4000 km. 80% of shark positions in northern equatorial upwelling habitat and 100% of positions in eastern boundary upwelling habitat were located within the upwelling front. Analysis of equatorial shark locations relative to thermal gradients reveals occupancy of a transition point in environmental stability. Equatorial subsurface tag data show residence in shallow, warm (>22°C) water 94% of the time. Surface zonal current speeds for all equatorial tracking explain only 16% of the variance in shark zonal movement speeds, indicating that passive drifting is not a primary determinant of movement patterns. Movement from equatorial to eastern boundary frontal zones occurred during boreal winter, when equatorial upwelling weakens seasonally. Off Peru sharks tracked upwelling frontal positions within ~100-350 km from the coast. Off Central America, the largest tagged shark (12.8 m TL) occupied an oceanic front along the periphery of the Panama wind jet. Seasonal movement from waning equatorial upwelling to productive eastern boundary habitat is consistent with underlying trophic dynamics. Persistent shallow residence in

  18. Explained and unexplained tissue loss in corals from the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Villalobos, Jenny Carolina; Work, Thierry M.; Calderon-Aguilera, Luis Eduardo; Reyes-Bonilla, Hector; Hernández, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Coral reefs rival rainforest in biodiversity, but are declining in part because of disease. Tissue loss lesions, a manifestation of disease, are present in dominant Pocillopora along the Pacific coast of Mexico. We characterized tissue loss in 7 species of Pocillopora from 9 locations (44 sites) spanning southern to northern Mexico. Corals were identified to species, and tissue loss lesions were photographed and classified as those explainable by predation and those that were unexplained. A focal predation study was done concurrently at 3 locations to confirm origin of explained lesions. Of 1054 cases of tissue loss in 7 species of corals, 84% were associated with predation (fish, snails, or seastar) and the remainder were unexplained. Types of tissue loss were not related to coral density; however there was significant geographic heterogeneity in type of lesion; one site in particular (Cabo Pulmo) had the highest prevalence of predator-induced tissue loss (mainly pufferfish predation). Crown-of-thorns starfish, pufferfish, and snails were the most common predators and preferred P. verrucosa, P. meandrina, and P. capitata, respectively. Of the 9 locations, 4 had unexplained tissue loss with prevalence ranging from 1 to 3% with no species predilection. Unexplained tissue loss was similar to white syndrome (WS) in morphology, indicating additional study is necessary to clarify the cause(s) of the lesions and the potential impacts to dominant corals along the Pacific coast of Mexico.

  19. Potential impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean-Western Pacific on the variability of typhoon landfall on the China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lei; Chen, Sheng; Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Dongxiao; Wang, Xin

    2017-12-01

    The landfall activity of typhoons (TYs) along the coast of China during July-August-September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variation during 1965-2010. We identify three sub-periods of TY landfall activity in JAS along the China coast in this period, with more TY landfall during 1965-1978 (Period I) and 1998-2010 (Period III), and less during 1982-1995 (Period II). We find that the interdecadal variation might be related to the combined effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase changes and sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific (IO-WP). During the negative PDO phase in Periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP), inducing easterly flow in its northern part, which favors TY landfall along the eastern China coast. Warm SST anomalies over the tropical IO-WP during Period III induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP through both the Gill-pattern response to the warm SST in the tropical IO and the anomalous meridional circulation induced by the warm SST in the tropical WNP. As a result, the northern South China Sea and WNP (10°-20° N) are dominated by southeasterly flow, which favors TYs making landfall on both the southern and eastern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TYs making landfall along the China coast during Period III than during Period I, which shows cool SST anomalies in the tropical IO-WP.

  20. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

    2018-04-01

    Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

  1. Patterns at Multi-Spatial Scales on Tropical Island Stream Insect Assemblages: Gorgona Island Natural National Park, Colombia, Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnolia Longo

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical Eastern Pacific island streams (TEPis differ from other neotropical streams in their rainy climate, mixed sedimentary-volcanic geology and faunal composition. Yet, their relationships between environmental characteristics and stream biota remain unexplored. We analyzed the environmental subject at three spatial scales using a fully nested sampling design (6 streams, 2 reaches within each stream, 2 habitats within each reach, and 4 replicates per habitat on Gorgona Island (Colombia. Sampling was carried out in two months with contrasting rainfall during early 2009. We studied the spatial variation of assemblage composition and density along with 27 independent variables within two contrasting rainfall conditions. Five stream-scale variables, two reach-scale variables, and five habitat-scale variables were selected using a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA. A partial CCA showed that the total variance explained was 13.98%, while stream- and habitat-scale variables explained the highest proportion of the variance (5.74 and 5.01%, respectively. Dissolved oxygen (as affected by rainfall, high-density use zone (a management category, and sedimentary geology were the best descriptors of insect assemblages. The two latter descriptors affected fine-scale variables such as total benthic organic matter and gravel substratum, respectively. A Nested ANOVA showed significant differences in total density and richness among streams and habitats, and significant differences between the two sampling months regardless of the spatial scale. The evenness showed a significant stream- and habitat-dependent temporal variability. These results suggested that rainfall regime in Gorgona Island might be a driver of insect assemblage dynamics mediated by water chemistry and substratum properties. Spatial assemblage variability here is greater within habitats (among samples, and a minor fraction occurs at habitat- and stream-scales, while no longitudinal

  2. Molecular Phylogeny Of Microbes In The Deep-Sea Sediments From Tropical West Pacific Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Xiao, X.; Wang, P.

    2005-12-01

    The presence and phylogeny of bacteria and archaea in five deep-sea sediment samples collected from west Pacific Warm Pool area (WP-0, WP-1, WP-2, WP-3, WP-4), and in five sediment layers (1cm-, 3cm-, 6cm-, 10cm-, 12cm- layer) of the 12-cm sediment core of WP-0 were checked and compared. The microbial diversity in the five deep-sea sediments were similar as revealed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, and all of them contained members of non-thermophilic marine group I crenarchaeota as the predominant archaeal group. The composition of methylotrophs including methanotrophs, sulfate reducing bacteria in the WP-0 sediment core were further investigated by molecular marker based analysis of mxaF, pmoA, dsrAB, specific anoxic methane oxidation archaeal and sulfate reducing bacterial 16S rRNA genes. From MxaF amino acid sequence analysis, it was demonstrated that microbes belonging to α - Proteobacteria most related to Hyphomicrobium and Methylobacterium were dominant aerobic methylotrophs in this deep-sea sediment; and small percentage of type II methanotrophs affiliating closest to Methylocystis and Methylosinus were also detected in this environment. mxaF quantitative PCR results showed that in the west Pacific WP sediment there existed around 3× 10 4-5 methylotrophs per gram sediment, 10-100 times more than that in samples collected from several other deep-sea Pacific sediment sample, but about 10 times less than that present in samples collected from rice and flower garden soil. Diverse groups of novel archaea (named as WPA), not belonging to any known archaeal lineages were checked out. They could be placed in the euryarchaeota kingdom, separated into two distinct groups, the main group was peripherally related with methanogens, the other group related with Thermoplasma. Possible sulfate reducing bacterial related with Desulfotomaculum, Desulfacinum, Desulfomonile and Desulfanuticus were also detected in our study. The vertical distributions of WPA

  3. Whole-island carbon stocks in the tropical Pacific: implications for mangrove conservation and upland restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, D C; Kauffman, J B; Mackenzie, R A; Ainsworth, A; Pfleeger, A Z

    2012-04-30

    Management of forest carbon (C) stocks is an increasingly prominent land-use issue. Knowledge of carbon storage in tropical forests is improving, but regional variations are still poorly understood, and this constrains forest management and conservation efforts associated with carbon valuation mechanisms (e.g., carbon markets). This deficiency is especially pronounced in tropical islands and low-lying coastal areas where climate change impacts are expected to be among the most severe. This study presents the first field estimate of island-wide carbon storage in ecosystems of Oceania, with special attention to the regional role of coastal mangroves, which occur on islands and coastal zones throughout the tropics. On two island groups of Micronesia (Yap and Palau), we sampled all above- and belowground C pools, including soil and vegetation, in 24 sites distributed evenly among the three major vegetation structural types: mangroves, upland forests, and open savannas (generally on degraded lands formerly forested). Total C stocks were estimated to be 3.9 and 15.2 Tg C on Yap and Palau, respectively. Mangroves contained by far the largest per-hectare C pools (830-1218 Mg C ha(-1)), with deep organic-rich soils alone storing more C (631-754 Mg C ha(-1)) than all pools combined in upland systems. Despite covering just 12-13% of land area, mangroves accounted for 24-34% of total island C stocks. Savannas (156-203 Mg C ha(-1)) contained significantly lower C stocks than upland forests (375-437 Mg C ha(-1)), suggesting that reforesting savannas where appropriate has high potential for carbon-based funding to aid restoration objectives. For mangroves, these results demonstrate the key role of these systems within the broader context of C storage in island and coastal landscapes. Sustainable management of mangrove forests and their large C stocks is of high importance at the regional scale, and climate change mitigation programs such as REDD+ could play a large role in

  4. ENSO dynamics and seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific as simulated by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bacher, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Oberhuber, J.M. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    The new version of the atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM4, at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, has been coupled to the OPYC3 isopycnic global ocean general circulation and sea ice model (Oberhuber 1993) in a multi-century present-day climate simulation. Nonseasonal constant flux adjustment for heat and freshwater was employed to ensure a long-term annual mean state close to present day climatology. This paper examines the simulated upper ocean seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific for the first 100 years. The coupled model`s seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific SSTs is in good agreement with the observations with respect to both the warm pool variation and the Central and Eastern Pacific, with significant errors (up to -2 K) only in the cold tongue around April. The cold phase cold tongue extent and strength is as observed, and for this the heat flux adjustment does not play the decisive role; corrections beyond {+-}40 Wm{sup -2} are rare and only occupy small areas, such as near coasts. A well established south Pacific convergence zone is characteristic for the new AGCM version. Apart from extending the south-east trades seasonal maximum to midbasin, windstress pattern and strength are well captured. The subsurface structure is overall consistent with the observed, with a realistically sharp thermocline at about 150 m depth in the west and rising to the surface from 160 W to 100 W.

  5. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  6. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  7. Perturbations to the lower ionosphere by tropical cyclone Evan in the South Pacific Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sushil; NaitAmor, Samir; Chanrion, Olivier; Neubert, Torsten

    2017-08-01

    Very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic signals from navigational transmitters propagate worldwide in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide formed by the Earth and the electrically conducting lower ionosphere. Changes in the signal properties are signatures of variations in the conductivity of the reflecting boundary of the lower ionosphere which is located in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and their analysis is, therefore, a way to study processes in these remote regions. Here we present a study on amplitude perturbations of local origin on the VLF transmitter signals (NPM, NLK, NAA, and JJI) observed during tropical cyclone (TC) Evan, 9-16 December 2012 when TC was in the proximity of the transmitter-receiver links. We observed a maximum amplitude perturbation of 5.7 dB on JJI transmitter during 16 December event. From Long Wave Propagation Capability model applied to three selected events we estimate a maximum decrease in the nighttime D region reference height (H') by 5.2 km (13 December, NPM) and maximum increase in the daytime D region H' by 6.1 km and 7.5 km (14 and 16 December, JJI). The results suggest that the TC caused the neutral densities of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere to lift and sink (bringing the lower ionosphere with it), an effect that may be mediated by gravity waves generated by the TC. The perturbations were observed before the storm was classified as a TC, at a time when it was a tropical depression, suggesting the broader conclusion that severe convective storms, in general, perturb the mesosphere and the stratosphere through which the perturbations propagate.

  8. Perceptions, impacts and adaptation of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific: an urban perspective from Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, A. D.; Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.; Royle, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    To better understand perceptions, impacts and adaptation strategies related to tropical cyclones (TCs) in urban environments of the Southwest Pacific (SWP), a survey (with 130 participants) was conducted across three island nations; Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga. The key aims of this study include: (i) understanding local perceptions of TC activity, (ii) investigating physical impacts of TC activity, and (iii) uncovering adaptation strategies used to offset the impacts of TCs. It was found that current methods of adaptation generally occur at the local level immediately prior to a TC event (preparation of property, gathering of food, setting up of community centres). This method of adaptation appears to be effective, however higher level adaptation measures (such as the development of building codes as developed in Fiji) may reduce vulnerability further. The survey responses also highlight that there is significant scope to provide education programs specifically aimed at improving the understanding of weather related aspects of TCs. Finally, we investigate the potential to merge ecological traditional knowledge with the non-traditional knowledge of empirical and climate mode based weather forecasts to improve forecasting of TCs, which would ultimately reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity.

  9. Tropical cyclone perceptions, impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific: an urban perspective from Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magee, Andrew D.; Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Kiem, Anthony S.; Royle, Stephen A.

    2016-05-01

    The destruction caused by tropical cyclone (TC) Pam in March 2015 is considered one of the worst natural disasters in the history of Vanuatu. It has highlighted the need for a better understanding of TC impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region. Therefore, the key aims of this study are to (i) understand local perceptions of TC activity, (ii) investigate impacts of TC activity and (iii) uncover adaptation strategies used to offset the impacts of TCs. To address these aims, a survey (with 130 participants from urban areas) was conducted across three SWP small island states (SISs): Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga (FVT). It was found that respondents generally had a high level of risk perception and awareness of TCs and the associated physical impacts, but lacked an understanding of the underlying weather conditions. Responses highlighted that current methods of adaptation generally occur at the local level, immediately prior to a TC event (preparation of property, gathering of food, finding a safe place to shelter). However higher level adaptation measures (such as the modification to building structures) may reduce vulnerability further. Finally, we discuss the potential of utilising weather-related traditional knowledge and non-traditional knowledge of empirical and climate-model-based weather forecasts to improve TC outlooks, which would ultimately reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity. Importantly, lessons learned from this study may result in the modification and/or development of existing adaptation strategies.

  10. Evidence for island effects and diurnal signals in satellite images of clouds over the tropical western pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barr-Kumarakulasinghe, S.A. [State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States); Reynolds, R.M.; Minnett, P.J. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Instruments to measure atmospheric radiation and ancillary meteorological variables will be set up on Manus Island as the first site of the tropical western pacific (TWP) locale of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program. Manus is in the {open_quotes}warm pool{close_quotes} region of the TWP. This region is critical in establishing global atmospheric circulation patterns and is a primary energy source for the Hadley and Walker cells. The myriad islands and enclosed seas in the immediate vicinity of Manus have been referred to as the {open_quotes}maritime continent{close_quotes}, which has the deepest convective activity in the world. Manus is in a region having a global impact on climate and where island effects on clouds are likely to be important. In this preliminary analysis we have sought evidence of island effects in the cloud fields around Manus and have studied the variability of the diurnal cycles of cloud cover over Manus and over other islands and areas of open sea in the region.

  11. GROWTH AND SURVIVAL OF PRAWN Macrobrachium tenellum IN EXPERIMENTAL CULTURES DURING SUMMER AND AUTUMN IN THE TROPICAL MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Vega Villasante

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available For aquaculture purposes, Macrobrachium tenellum is considered as a good candidate, is not aggressive nor presents cannibalism and can tolerate an ample interval of temperatures, salinities and oxygen concentrations. The present work evaluates the semi-intensive culture of M. tenellum under environmental conditions of summer and autumn with special attention to water temperature. The results of the experimental cultures in the tropical Mexican Pacific coast, suggest this species demonstrates better growth during the end of the spring, summer and the beginning of the autumn, time at which the average temperature of the water is near 30°C. The experimental cultures of end of autumn and beginnings of winter demonstrate minimum growth, with an average temperature of the culture water of 27°C.  Other parameters like pH, O2 concentration and turbidity in the culture water were similar in all the experimental cultures reason why temperature is suggested the factor was the determinant in the differences found in growth. Â

  12. Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

    2018-05-01

    An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

  13. Climatic Variations in Tropical West African Rainfall and the Implications for Military Planners

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Montgomery, Christi S

    2008-01-01

    ...) and El Nino/La Nina (ENLN) events in the tropical Pacific. Our primary data sets were the National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis fields and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI...

  14. Phytoplankton across Tropical and Subtropical Regions of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Marta; Delgado, Maximino; Blasco, Dolors; Latasa, Mikel; Cabello, Ana María; Benítez-Barrios, Verónica; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Mozetič, Patricija; Vidal, Montserrat

    2016-01-01

    We examine the large-scale distribution patterns of the nano- and microphytoplankton collected from 145 oceanic stations, at 3 m depth, the 20% light level and the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum, during the Malaspina-2010 Expedition (December 2010-July 2011), which covered 15 biogeographical provinces across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, between 35°N and 40°S. In general, the water column was stratified, the surface layers were nutrient-poor and the nano- and microplankton (hereafter phytoplankton, for simplicity, although it included also heterotrophic protists) community was dominated by dinoflagellates, other flagellates and coccolithophores, while the contribution of diatoms was only important in zones with shallow nutriclines such as the equatorial upwelling regions. We applied a principal component analysis to the correlation matrix among the abundances (after logarithmic transform) of the 76 most frequent taxa to synthesize the information contained in the phytoplankton data set. The main trends of variability identified consisted of: 1) A contrast between the community composition of the upper and the lower parts of the euphotic zone, expressed respectively by positive or negative scores of the first principal component, which was positively correlated with taxa such as the dinoflagellates Oxytoxum minutum and Scrippsiella spp., and the coccolithophores Discosphaera tubifera and Syracosphaera pulchra (HOL and HET), and negatively correlated with taxa like Ophiaster hydroideus (coccolithophore) and several diatoms, 2) a general abundance gradient between phytoplankton-rich regions with high abundances of dinoflagellate, coccolithophore and ciliate taxa, and phytoplankton-poor regions (second principal component), 3) differences in dominant phytoplankton and ciliate taxa among the Atlantic, the Indian and the Pacific oceans (third principal component) and 4) the occurrence of a diatom-dominated assemblage (the fourth principal

  15. Phytoplankton across Tropical and Subtropical Regions of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Marta; Delgado, Maximino; Blasco, Dolors; Latasa, Mikel; Cabello, Ana María; Benítez-Barrios, Verónica; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Mozetič, Patricija; Vidal, Montserrat

    2016-01-01

    We examine the large-scale distribution patterns of the nano- and microphytoplankton collected from 145 oceanic stations, at 3 m depth, the 20% light level and the depth of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum, during the Malaspina-2010 Expedition (December 2010-July 2011), which covered 15 biogeographical provinces across the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, between 35°N and 40°S. In general, the water column was stratified, the surface layers were nutrient-poor and the nano- and microplankton (hereafter phytoplankton, for simplicity, although it included also heterotrophic protists) community was dominated by dinoflagellates, other flagellates and coccolithophores, while the contribution of diatoms was only important in zones with shallow nutriclines such as the equatorial upwelling regions. We applied a principal component analysis to the correlation matrix among the abundances (after logarithmic transform) of the 76 most frequent taxa to synthesize the information contained in the phytoplankton data set. The main trends of variability identified consisted of: 1) A contrast between the community composition of the upper and the lower parts of the euphotic zone, expressed respectively by positive or negative scores of the first principal component, which was positively correlated with taxa such as the dinoflagellates Oxytoxum minutum and Scrippsiella spp., and the coccolithophores Discosphaera tubifera and Syracosphaera pulchra (HOL and HET), and negatively correlated with taxa like Ophiaster hydroideus (coccolithophore) and several diatoms, 2) a general abundance gradient between phytoplankton-rich regions with high abundances of dinoflagellate, coccolithophore and ciliate taxa, and phytoplankton-poor regions (second principal component), 3) differences in dominant phytoplankton and ciliate taxa among the Atlantic, the Indian and the Pacific oceans (third principal component) and 4) the occurrence of a diatom-dominated assemblage (the fourth principal

  16. Fish community structure on coral habitats with contrasting architecture in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María del Mar Palacios

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available La arquitectura del paisaje arrecifal, definida por la morfología de los corales dominantes, puede desempeñar un papel importante en la estructura y composición de las comunidades de peces al afectar la disponibilidad de nichos y recursos y modificar las interacciones interespecíficas. Hicimos un estudio comparativo entre la comunidad de peces asociada a una comunidad de corales masivos (CCM y a una de corales ramificados (CCR en la isla Gorgona, Pacífico Oriental Tropical. En cada formación coralina, el sustrato bentónico se evaluó a través de “transectos de cadena”, mientras que la comunidad de peces se valoró con el uso censos visuales en transectos de banda. Hubo diferencias en la abundancia, diversidad (H’ y equitatividad (J’ de las dos comunidades de peces. La CCR, a pesar de estar formada por colonias morfológicamente complejas de corales pocillóporidos, presentó una arquitectura simple y relativamente plana que atrajo principalmente peces territoriales y de talla pequeña. Abundancias significativamente altas de Chromis atrilobata y Thalassoma lucasanum en la CCR, aumentaron la abundancia total de peces, pero ocasionaron una baja diversidad y equitatividad de la comunidad. Por el contrario, la CCM constituida principalmente por especies de corales masivos con diversos tamaños y formas, presentó una arquitectura compleja y de alto relieve capaz de mantener una comunidad de peces mucho más diversa y equitativa, aunque con la misma riqueza de especies de peces que la CCR. Los peces de gran talla, con comportamiento errante y hábitos carnívoros fueron atraídos a la MCC. En general, nuestro estudio evidenció que aunque las especies de coral con crecimiento masivo son importantes en la formación de una arquitectura compleja, cada una de las morfologías de coral dominante (masivo y ramificado atrae y brinda recursos a distintos grupos de peces según su tamaño y grupo trófico. La pérdida de corales masivos o un

  17. Seasonal abundance of the dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, in Hawaii and the tropical Pacific Ocean

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    Syd Kraul

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available This report looks at possible explanations for the seasonal abundance of the dolphinfish, Coryphaena hippurus, in Hawaii. In Hawaii and many parts of the Pacific Ocean, the abundance of C. hippurus (called mahimahi in Hawaii varies seasonally in a pattern that is fairly consistent from year to year. Size frequency analysis shows that this pattern of seasonal landings matches the pattern of cohort abundance in certain years. The strongest cohorts are spawned in July, often stay in our fishing zone for at least 5 months, and may comprise the predominant portion of the catch through October. Even though mahimahi spawn copiously all year in captivity, the data here suggest that wild mahimahi either spawn less frequently, or their larvae survive better at certain times of the year. Thus, seasonal abundance of mahimahi in Hawaii might be a function of cohort survival. The abundance pattern also fits the pattern of change in seasonal surface temperatures, and it is quite possible that mahimahi migrate north and south to stay in the sea surface thermocline associated with the 23°C isotherm. Natural growth rates were derived from our size frequency analyses, and the rates matched growth rates reported in a previous study of otolith ring deposition. A significant increase in longline fishing in 1989 increased total landings but did not reduce the catch quantity or sales price for charter boat mahimahi.

  18. The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

  19. Latitudinal Change of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity in the Western North Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Won Choi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study obtained the latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs show maximum intensity and applied statistical change-point analysis on the time series data of the average annual values. The analysis results found that the latitude of the TC maximum intensity increased from 1999. To investigate the reason behind this phenomenon, the difference of the average latitude between 1999 and 2013 and the average between 1977 and 1998 was analyzed. In a difference of 500 hPa streamline between the two periods, anomalous anticyclonic circulations were strong in 30°–50°N, while anomalous monsoon trough was located in the north of South China Sea. This anomalous monsoon trough was extended eastward to 145°E. Middle-latitude region in East Asia is affected by the anomalous southeasterlies due to these anomalous anticyclonic circulations and anomalous monsoon trough. These anomalous southeasterlies play a role of anomalous steering flows that make the TCs heading toward region in East Asia middle latitude. As a result, TCs during 1999–2013 had higher latitude of the maximum intensity compared to the TCs during 1977–1998.

  20. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

    OpenAIRE

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival ove...

  1. Condiciones oceanográficas en isla Gorgona, Pacífico oriental tropical de Colombia Oceanographic conditions off Gorgona Island, eastern tropical Pacific of Colombia

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    Alan Giraldo

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available La zona de influencia costera de isla Gorgona es un área marina protegida localizada en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical (POT de Colombia. Aunque alberga uno de los arrecifes coralinos más desarrollados del POT, la caracterización de las condiciones oceanógraficas superficiales locales y su variabilidad temporal y espacial han sido escasamente abordadas. Para incrementar el conocimiento sobre la variabilidad de la temperatura y la salinidad en esta localidad se realizaron registros sistemáticos de estas variables durante cuatro periodos (septiembre 2005, diciembre 2005, marzo 2006 y junio 2006, se instalaron sensores de registro continuo de temperatura a f 5 m de profundidad en la zona oriental y occidental de la isla, y se realizó un monitoreo del patrón local de circulación superficial utilizando un perfilador de corrientes (AWAK-ADCP durante junio 2006 y febrero 2007. Se identificaron dos períodos contrastantes para las condiciones oceanógraficas en la capa superficial (0-50 m de la columna de agua: un período cálido y de baja salinidad superficial entre mayo y diciembre (profundidad termoclina 47 m y un período frío y salino entre enero y abril (profundidad termoclina 7,5 m. Se descartó la presencia de proceso local de surgencia y los resultados indicaron una fuerte influencia de procesos de mesoescala (surgencia en el Panamá Bight sobre la variabilidad temporal de las condiciones oceanógraficas en la zona de estudio. En este mismo sentido se sugiere que la variabilidad espacial estaría más asociada a procesos climáticos regionales (patrón de precipitación y la cercanía de la zona de estudio al complejo deltaico río Patía - río Sanquianga.The near shore zone of Gorgona Island is a protected marine area located in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP of Colombia. Although this is home to one of the most developed coral reefs in the ETP, the characteristics of the local oceanographic conditions at the surface and their

  2. Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones ...

  3. Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    ), (b) Mean sea level pressure on 17th. May '97 (00 UTC), .... Figure 5(b) and (c) represent 24 hours accumulated precipitation as obtained from CD and FD forecast respectively. Heavy precipitation is predicted in both the cases along the track ...

  4. Mid-term coral-algal dynamics and conservation status of a Gorgona Island (Tropical Eastern Pacific coral reef

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    Fernando A Zapata

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Colombian coral reefs, as other reefs worldwide, have deteriorated significantly during the last few decades due to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The National Monitoring System for Coral Reefs in Colombia (SIMAC was established in 1998 to provide long-term data bases to assess the changes of Colombian coral reefs against perturbations and to identify the factors responsible for their decline or recovery. On the Pacific coast, data on coral and algal cover have been collected yearly during seven consecutive years (1998-2004 from 20 permanent transects in two sites at La Azufrada reef, Gorgona Island. Overall, coral cover was high (55.1%-65.7% and algal cover low (28.8%-37.5% and both exhibited significant changes among years, most notably on shallow areas. Differences between sites in both coral and algal cover were present since the study began and may be explained by differences in sedimentation stress derived from soil runoff. Differences between depths most likely stem from the effects of low tidal sub-aerial exposures. Particularly intense sub-aerial exposures occurred repeatedly during January-March, 2001 and accounted for a decrease in coral and an increase in algal cover on shallow depths observed later that year. Additionally, the shallow area on the Northern site seems to be negatively affected by the combined effect of sedimentation and low tidal exposure. However, a decrease in coral cover and an increase of algal cover since 2001 on deep areas at both sites remain unexplained. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that the reef at La Azufrada has been more resilient than other reefs in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP, recovering pre-disturbance (1979 levels of coral cover within a 10 year period after the 1982-83 El Niño, which caused 85% mortality. Furthermore, the effects of the 1997-98 El Niño, indicated by the difference in overall live coral cover between 1998 and 1999, were minor (<6% reduction. Despite

  5. Mid-term coral-algal dynamics and conservation status of a Gorgona Island (Tropical Eastern Pacific) coral reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Fernando A; Rodríguez-Ramírez, Alberto; Caro-Zambrano, Carlos; Garzón-Ferreira, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Colombian coral reefs, as other reefs worldwide, have deteriorated significantly during the last few decades due to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The National Monitoring System for Coral Reefs in Colombia (SIMAC) was established in 1998 to provide long-term data bases to assess the changes of Colombian coral reefs against perturbations and to identify the factors responsible for their decline or recovery. On the Pacific coast, data on coral and algal cover have been collected yearly during seven consecutive years (1998-2004) from 20 permanent transects in two sites at La Azufrada reef, Gorgona Island. Overall, coral cover was high (55.1%-65.7%) and algal cover low (28.8%-37.5%) and both exhibited significant changes among years, most notably on shallow areas. Differences between sites in both coral and algal cover were present since the study began and may be explained by differences in sedimentation stress derived from soil runoff. Differences between depths most likely stem from the effects of low tidal sub-aerial exposures. Particularly intense sub-aerial exposures occurred repeatedly during January-March, 2001 and accounted for a decrease in coral and an increase in algal cover on shallow depths observed later that year. Additionally, the shallow area on the Northern site seems to be negatively affected by the combined effect of sedimentation and low tidal exposure. However, a decrease in coral cover and an increase of algal cover since 2001 on deep areas at both sites remain unexplained. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that the reef at La Azufrada has been more resilient than other reefs in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP), recovering pre-disturbance (1979) levels of coral cover within a 10 year period after the 1982-83 El Niño, which caused 85% mortality. Furthermore, the effects of the 1997-98 El Niño, indicated by the difference in overall live coral cover between 1998 and 1999, were minor (< 6% reduction). Despite recurrent

  6. Objective Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in the North-West Pacific Basin Based on Wind Field Information only

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Befort, D. J.; Kruschke, T.

    2016-12-01

    Although only ca. 12% of the global insured losses of natural disasters occurred in Asia, there are two major reasons to be concerned about risks in Asia: a) The fraction of loss events was substantial higher with 39% of which 94% were due to atmospheric processes; b) Asia and especially China, is undergoing quick transitions and especially the insurance market is rapidly growing. In order to allow for the estimation of potential future (loss) impacts in East-Asia, in this study we further developed and applied a feature tracking system based on extreme wind speed occurrences to tropical cyclones, which was originally developed for extra-tropical cyclones (Leckebusch et al., 2008). In principle, wind fields will be identified and tracked once a coherent exceedance of local percentile thresholds is identified. The focus on severe wind impact will allow an objective link between the strength of a cyclone and its potential damages over land. The wind tracking is developed in such a way to be applicable also to course-gridded AOGCM simulation. In the presented configuration the wind tracking algorithm is applied to the Japanese reanalysis (JRA55) and TC Identification is based on 850hPa wind speeds (6h resolution) from 1979 to 2014 over the Western North Pacific region. For validation the IBTrACS Best Track archive version v03r8 is used. Out of all 904 observed tracks, about 62% can be matched to at least one windstorm event identified in JRA55. It is found that the relative amount of matched best tracks increases with the maximum intensity. Thus, a positive matching (hit rate) of above 98% for Violent Typhoons (VTY), above 90% for Very Strong Typhoons (VSTY), about 75% for Typhoons (TY), and still some 50% for less intense TCs (TD, TS, STS) is found. This result is extremely encouraging to apply this technique to AOGCM outputs and to derive information about affected regions and intensity-frequency distributions potentially changed under future climate conditions.

  7. An individual-based model of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) movement in the tropical Pacific ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scutt Phillips, Joe; Sen Gupta, Alex; Senina, Inna; van Sebille, Erik; Lange, Michael; Lehodey, Patrick; Hampton, John; Nicol, Simon

    2018-05-01

    The distribution of marine species is often modeled using Eulerian approaches, in which changes to population density or abundance are calculated at fixed locations in space. Conversely, Lagrangian, or individual-based, models simulate the movement of individual particles moving in continuous space, with broader-scale patterns such as distribution being an emergent property of many, potentially adaptive, individuals. These models offer advantages in examining dynamics across spatiotemporal scales and making comparisons with observations from individual-scale data. Here, we introduce and describe such a model, the Individual-based Kinesis, Advection and Movement of Ocean ANimAls model (Ikamoana), which we use to replicate the movement processes of an existing Eulerian model for marine predators (the Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamics Model, SEAPODYM). Ikamoana simulates the movement of either individual or groups of animals by physical ocean currents, habitat-dependent stochastic movements (kinesis), and taxis movements representing active searching behaviours. Applying our model to Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), we show that it accurately replicates the evolution of density distribution simulated by SEAPODYM with low time-mean error and a spatial correlation of density that exceeds 0.96 at all times. We demonstrate how the Lagrangian approach permits easy tracking of individuals' trajectories for examining connectivity between different regions, and show how the model can provide independent estimates of transfer rates between commonly used assessment regions. In particular, we find that retention rates in most assessment regions are considerably smaller (up to a factor of 2) than those estimated by this population of skipjack's primary assessment model. Moreover, these rates are sensitive to ocean state (e.g. El Nino vs La Nina) and so assuming fixed transfer rates between regions may lead to spurious stock estimates. A novel feature of the

  8. The Sorcerer II Global Ocean Sampling expedition: northwest Atlantic through eastern tropical Pacific.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas B Rusch

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The world's oceans contain a complex mixture of micro-organisms that are for the most part, uncharacterized both genetically and biochemically. We report here a metagenomic study of the marine planktonic microbiota in which surface (mostly marine water samples were analyzed as part of the Sorcerer II Global Ocean Sampling expedition. These samples, collected across a several-thousand km transect from the North Atlantic through the Panama Canal and ending in the South Pacific yielded an extensive dataset consisting of 7.7 million sequencing reads (6.3 billion bp. Though a few major microbial clades dominate the planktonic marine niche, the dataset contains great diversity with 85% of the assembled sequence and 57% of the unassembled data being unique at a 98% sequence identity cutoff. Using the metadata associated with each sample and sequencing library, we developed new comparative genomic and assembly methods. One comparative genomic method, termed "fragment recruitment," addressed questions of genome structure, evolution, and taxonomic or phylogenetic diversity, as well as the biochemical diversity of genes and gene families. A second method, termed "extreme assembly," made possible the assembly and reconstruction of large segments of abundant but clearly nonclonal organisms. Within all abundant populations analyzed, we found extensive intra-ribotype diversity in several forms: (1 extensive sequence variation within orthologous regions throughout a given genome; despite coverage of individual ribotypes approaching 500-fold, most individual sequencing reads are unique; (2 numerous changes in gene content some with direct adaptive implications; and (3 hypervariable genomic islands that are too variable to assemble. The intra-ribotype diversity is organized into genetically isolated populations that have overlapping but independent distributions, implying distinct environmental preference. We present novel methods for measuring the genomic

  9. Dissolved Organic Matter Influences N2 Fixation in the New Caledonian Lagoon (Western Tropical South Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mar Benavides

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Specialized prokaryotes performing biological dinitrogen (N2 fixation (“diazotrophs” provide an important source of fixed nitrogen in oligotrophic marine ecosystems such as tropical and subtropical oceans. In these waters, cyanobacterial photosynthetic diazotrophs are well known to be abundant and active, yet the role and contribution of non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs are currently unclear. The latter are not photosynthetic (here called “heterotrophic” and hence require external sources of organic matter to sustain N2 fixation. Here we added the photosynthesis inhibitor 3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl-1,1-dimethylurea (DCMU to estimate the N2 fixation potential of heterotrophic diazotrophs as compared to autotrophic ones. Additionally, we explored the influence of dissolved organic matter (DOM on these diazotrophs along a coast to open ocean gradient in the surface waters of a subtropical coral lagoon (New Caledonia. Total N2 fixation (samples not amended with DCMU ranged from 0.66 to 1.32 nmol N L−1 d−1. The addition of DCMU reduced N2 fixation by >90%, suggesting that the contribution of heterotrophic diazotrophs to overall N2 fixation activity was minor in this environment. Higher contribution of heterotrophic diazotrophs occurred in stations closer to the shore and coincided with the decreasing lability of DOM, as shown by various colored DOM and fluorescent DOM (CDOM and FDOM indices. We tested the response of diazotrophs (in terms of nifH gene expression and bulk N2 fixation rates upon the addition of a mix of carbohydrates (“DOC” treatment, amino acids (“DON” treatment, and phosphonates and phosphomonesters (“DOP” treatment. While nifH expression increased significantly in Trichodesmium exposed to the DOC treatment, bulk N2 fixation rates increased significantly only in the DOP treatment. The lack of nifH expression by gammaproteobacteria, in any of the DOM addition treatments applied, questions the contribution of non

  10. Diversity and Abundance of a Tropical Fishery on the Pacific Shelf of Michoacán, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrid, J.; Sánchez, P.; Ruiz, A.

    1997-10-01

    This study was undertaken on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Some 22 523 individual fish were sampled, representing two classes, 154 genera, 64 families and 257 species in a total area of 50 km 2. The species Lutjanus guttatus, Scomberomorus sierra, Cynoscion reticulatus, Sphyrna lewini, Arius platypogonand Caranx caninuswere the most numerically abundant, amounting to 53·2% of the whole sample. Two models for sample size analysis and richness prediction were used. From these, the forecast for a theoretical doubling of the level of sampling effort (90 days) was 297 and 331. The Shannon diversity indexes in summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) were significantly different (paired t-test, PUPGMA) indicated two climatic periods and three species assemblages. In addition, the nodal fidelity analysis agreed with the importance of the winter season in the study area. Two El Niño/southern oscillation incidences from 1986-87 and 1991-93 occurred during the sampling period.

  11. The phase differences of the interdecadal variabilities of tropical cyclone activity in the peak and late seasons over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Tingting; Xu, Shibin; Huang, Fei; Zhao, Jinping

    2018-04-01

    This study compares the interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the peak season (July-September) and late season (October-December) of 1955-2014 and explores the possible physical mechanisms behind the variations. Both the peak- and late-season tropical storm (TS) days show distinct interdecadal variations, while the late-season TS days lead the peak-season TS days by approximately 4 years on an interdecadal time scale. The late-season TC activity is related to the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The westerly winds induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the low-level vorticity, which favors TC genesis over the TC genesis region. The peak-season TC activity appears to relate to the SST gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific. The westerly wind induced by the SST gradient can reduce the vertical wind shear and increase the mid-level relative humidity, thereby enhancing the TC activity. The full picture of the interdecadal variation in the WNP TC activity during the peak and late seasons revealed in this study provides a new perspective on the seasonal TC forecasts and future projections.

  12. Redescription of the poorly known planktonic copepod Pontellopsis lubbockii (Giesbrecht, 1889) (Pontellidae) from the Eastern Tropical Pacific with a key to species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-Morales, Eduardo; Kozak, Eva

    2012-01-01

    Abstract During a survey of the epipelagic zooplankton carried out off the coast of the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, female and male specimens of the poorly known calanoid copepod Pontellopsis lubbockii (Giesbrecht, 1889) were collected. Because previous descriptions and illustrations are largely incomplete and have caused some taxonomical confusion, this species is fully redescribed from specimens from the Mexican Pacific. The species has some characters that have been overlooked, but those related to the female genital double-somite are the most striking, it has two conical dorsal protuberances and a long ventral spiniform process unique of this species. The mouthparts of this species have not been hitherto described and figured, the flexible terminal setae of legs 3 and 4 is noteworthy. The male general morphology agrees in general with previous data, but new details of the leg 5 and geniculate antennule are added. Its mouthparts, with strong, serrate setae on the maxillae and maxillules, and a strong mandibular edge, suggest that this is a predator form. A dichotomous key for the identification of males and females of the species of Pontellopsis known from the Eastern Tropical Pacific is included. PMID:23372406

  13. Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

    2017-08-01

    Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

  14. Knowledge-exchange in the Pacific: outcomes of the TROPIC (translational research for obesity prevention in communities) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Peter; Mavoa, Helen; Waqa, Gade; Moodie, Marjory; McCabe, Marita; Swinburn, Boyd

    2017-04-26

    The Pacific TROPIC (Translational Research for Obesity Prevention in Communities) project aimed to design, implement and evaluate a knowledge-broking approach to evidence-informed policy making to address obesity in Fiji. This paper reports on the quantitative evaluation of the knowledge-broking intervention through assessment of participants' perceptions of evidence use and development of policy/advocacy briefs. Selected staff from six organizations - four government Ministries and two nongovernment organizations (NGOs) - participated in the project. The intervention comprised workshops and supported development of policy/advocacy briefs. Workshops addressed obesity and policy cycles and developing participants' skills in accessing, assessing, adapting and applying relevant evidence. A knowledge-broking team supported participants individually and/or in small groups to develop evidence-informed policy/advocacy briefs. A questionnaire survey that included workplace and demographic items and the self-assessment tool "Is Research Working for You?" (IRWFY) was administered pre- and post-intervention. Forty nine individuals (55% female, 69% 21-40 years, 69% middle-senior managers) participated in the study. The duration and level of participant engagement with the intervention activities varied - just over half participated for 10+ months, just under half attended most workshops and approximately one third produced one or more policy briefs. There were few reliable changes on the IRWFY scales following the intervention; while positive changes were found on several scales, these effects were small (d organizational-level change post-intervention. This study empirically evaluated a knowledge-broking program that aimed to extend evidence-informed policy making skills and development of a suite of national policy briefs designed to increase the enactment of obesity-related policies. The findings failed to indicate reliable improvements in research utilization at either

  15. Dynamics and controls of heterotrophic prokaryotic production in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean: links with diazotrophic and photosynthetic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wambeke, France; Gimenez, Audrey; Duhamel, Solange; Dupouy, Cécile; Lefevre, Dominique; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Moutin, Thierry

    2018-05-01

    Heterotrophic prokaryotic production (BP) was studied in the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) using the leucine technique, revealing spatial and temporal variability within the region. Integrated over the euphotic zone, BP ranged from 58 to 120 mg C m-2 d-1 within the Melanesian Archipelago, and from 31 to 50 mg C m-2 d-1 within the western subtropical gyre. The collapse of a bloom was followed during 6 days in the south of Vanuatu using a Lagrangian sampling strategy. During this period, rapid evolution was observed in the three main parameters influencing the metabolic state: BP, primary production (PP) and bacterial growth efficiency. With N2 fixation being one of the most important fluxes fueling new production, we explored relationships between BP, PP and N2 fixation rates over the WTSP. The contribution of N2 fixation rates to bacterial nitrogen demand ranged from 3 to 81 %. BP variability was better explained by the variability of N2 fixation rates than by that of PP in surface waters of the Melanesian Archipelago, which were characterized by N-depleted layers and low DIP turnover times (TDIP 100 h), deeper in the Melanesian Archipelago, or within the entire euphotic zone in the subtropical gyre. The bacterial carbon demand to gross primary production ratio ranged from 0.75 to 3.1. These values are discussed in the framework of various assumptions and conversion factors used to estimate this ratio, including the methodological errors, the daily variability of BP, the bacterial growth efficiency and one bias so far not considered: the ability for Prochlorococcus to assimilate leucine in the dark.

  16. Validation of Satellite Estimates (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM for Rainfall Variability over the Pacific Slope and Coast of Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bolívar Erazo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A dense rain-gauge network within continental Ecuador was used to evaluate the quality of various products of rainfall data over the Pacific slope and coast of Ecuador (EPSC. A cokriging interpolation method is applied to the rain-gauge data yielding a gridded product at 5-km resolution covering the period 1965–2015. This product is compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC dataset, the Climatic Research Unit–University of East Anglia (CRU dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMPA 3B43 Version 7 dataset and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The analysis reveals that TRMM data show the most realistic features. The relative bias index (Rbias indicates that TRMM data is closer to the observations, mainly over lowlands (mean Rbias of 7% but have more limitations in reproducing the rainfall variability over the Andes (mean Rbias of −28%. The average RMSE and Rbias of 68.7 and −2.8% of TRMM are comparable with the GPCC (69.8 and 5.7% and CRU (102.3 and −2.3% products. This study also focuses on the rainfall inter-annual variability over the study region which experiences floods that have caused high economic losses during extreme El Niño events. Finally, our analysis evaluates the ability of TRMM data to reproduce rainfall events during El Niño years over the study area and the large basins of Esmeraldas and Guayas rivers. The results show that TRMM estimates report reasonable levels of heavy rainfall detection (for the extreme 1998 El Niño event over the EPSC and specifically towards the center-south of the EPSC (Guayas basin but present underestimations for the moderate El Niño of 2002–2003 event and the weak 2009–2010 event. Generally, the rainfall seasonal features, quantity and long-term climatology patterns are relatively well estimated by TRMM.

  17. Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the rainy season and relationship to the equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-10-15

    The present study investigates the Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the early and late rainy seasons and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea interaction based on observational estimates, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and the CFS retrospective forecasts. Analysis of the observational estimates indicates that air-sea interaction is important over the Caribbean Sea, whereas the atmospheric forcing of SST dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The CFS simulation captures the basic elements of this observed air-sea relationship. The GFS simulation produces spurious SST forcing of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico largely due to prescribing SST. The CFS forecasts capture the air-sea relationship in the late rainy season (August-October), but cannot reproduce the SST forcing of atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in the early rainy season (May-July). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that the leading modes of percent anomalies of the rainy season precipitation have the largest loading in the southern Caribbean Sea in observations. The model simulations and forecasts skillfully reproduce the spatial pattern, but not the temporal evolution. The Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the early rainy season is mainly due to the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomalies in observations, is contributed by both the TNA and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) SST anomalies in the CFS simulation, and has an overly large impact from the EEP SST anomalies in the GFS simulation and the CFS forecasts. The observed Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the late rainy season has a leading impact from the EEP SST anomalies, with a secondary contribution from the TNA SST anomalies. In comparison, the model simulations and forecasts overestimate the impacts of the EEP SST anomalies due to an earlier development and longer duration of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the CFS

  18. Changes in abundance and community structure of nematodes from the abyssal polymetallic nodule field, Tropical Northeast Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miljutin, Dmitry; Miljutina, Maria; Messié, Monique

    2015-12-01

    Deep-sea fields of polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCFZ, tropical NE Pacific) are currently being investigated to assess their potential for commercial mining. During such mining, benthic communities will be inevitably disturbed or destroyed. Therefore, assessments of their standing stock and composition may be helpful for the future evaluation of possible impacts of commercial nodule exploitation. Analysis of nematode communities (at genus level) inhabiting the French license area of the CCFZ were studied based on data from the cruises NODINAUT (2004) and BIONOD (2012). The total nematode density was ca. 1.5-fold higher in 2012 as compared with 2004. This reflected a 2-2.5 times higher density of non-selective deposit-feeders (i.e. possessing a small buccal cavity without armature) in 2012 compared with 2004, whereas no significant differences between sampling periods were observed in the density of the other feeding groups. Consequently, whilst the list of the most abundant genera was identical, their relative abundances changed significantly. The relative abundance of the genus Thalassomonhystera was two times greater in 2012 than in 2004, whereas the relative abundances of the genera Acantholaimus and Theristus were significantly lower in 2012 (10% and 4%, respectively) than in 2004 (28% and 9%). Nematode diversity (including values of diversity indices and total number of recorded genera) was significantly lower in 2012 in comparison with 2004. Although our data do not take into account seasonal and shorter temporal scales of variability in nematode assemblages, we report here that a certain fraction of variations observed between the two sampling periods could be associated with differences in primary production. Future studies should aim to better characterise temporal variability in nematode communities of the CCFZ at seasonal and interannual scales.

  19. Distribution and drivers of symbiotic and free-living diazotrophic cyanobacteria in the western tropical South Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenegren, Marcus; Caputo, Andrea; Berg, Carlo; Bonnet, Sophie; Foster, Rachel A.

    2018-03-01

    The abundance and distribution of cyanobacterial diazotrophs were quantified in two regions (Melanesian archipelago, MA; and subtropical gyre, SG) of the western tropical South Pacific using nifH quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) assays. UCYN-A1 and A2 host populations were quantified using 18S rRNA qPCR assays including one newly developed assay. All phylotypes were detected in the upper photic zone (0-50 m), with higher abundances in the MA region. Trichodesmium and UCYN-B dominated and ranged from 2.18 × 102 to 9.41 × 106 and 1.10 × 102 to 2.78 × 106 nifH copies L-1, respectively. Het-1 (symbiont of Rhizosolenia diatoms) was the next most abundant (1.40 × 101-1.74 × 105 nifH copies L-1) and co-occurred with het-2 and het-3. UCYN-A1 and A2 were the least abundant diazotrophs and were below detection (bd) in 63 and 79, respectively, of 120 samples. In addition, in up to 39 % of samples in which UCYN-A1 and A2 were detected, their respective hosts were bd. Pairwise comparisons of the nifH abundances and various environmental parameters supported two groups: a deep-dwelling group (45 m) comprised of UCYN-A1 and A2 and a surface group (0-15 m) comprised of Trichodesmium, het-1 and het-2. Temperature and photosynthetically active radiation were positively correlated with the surface group, while UCYN-A1 and A2 were positively correlated with depth, salinity, and oxygen. Similarly, in a meta-analysis of 11 external datasets, all diazotrophs, except UCYN-A were correlated with temperature. Combined, our results indicate that conditions favoring the UCYN-A symbiosis differ from those of diatom diazotroph associations and free-living cyanobacterial diazotrophs.

  20. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection

  1. Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2014-01-01

    In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

  2. Hipéridos (Crustacea: Amphipoda en el sector norte del Pacífico oriental tropical colombiano Hyperiids (Crustacea: Amphipoda along the northern margin of the eastern tropical Pacific of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bellineth Valencia

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Con el objetivo de analizar la composición, abundancia y diversidad de la comunidad de anfipodos hipéridos en las localidades de Punta Cruces y Cabo Marzo, costa norte del Pacífico colombiano (Pacífico oriental tropical, se realizó una campaña de muestreo en enero de 2008 siguiendo una malla de nueve estaciones. Se encontró un total de 20 especies, siendo Lestrigonus bengalensis e Hyperioides sibaginis las más abundantes, representando el 91% de la comunidad en Cabo Marzo y el 95% de la comunidad en Punta Cruces. La abundancia y la diversidad en las dos localidades fueron muy variables, y no presentaron diferencias significativas (Mann Whitney; p > 0,05. Así mismo, se estableció que la similitud en términos de la composición y la abundancia entre las comunidades de hipéridos de Punta Cruces y Cabo Marzo fue de un 64,6%. Este trabajo proporciona información inédita sobre un componente poco estudiado del zooplancton en el Pacífico oriental tropical, incrementando el número de especies registradas para el Pacífico colombiano.In order to analyze the composition, abundance, and diversity of hyperiid amphipods at Punta Cruces and Cabo Marzo, on the northern Pacific coast of Colombia (eastern tropical Pacific, a sampling campaign was carried out in January 2008 that covered a nine-station sampling grid. Twenty species were found, of which Lestrigonus bengalensis and Hyperioides sibaginis were the most abundant (91% of the community at Cabo Marzo and 95% at Punta Cruces. Although the abundance and diversity were highly variable at both sites, they did not differ significantly (Mann Whitney; p > 0.05. Likewise, the similarity in terms of composition and abundance between the hyperiid communities at Punta Cruces and Cabo Marzo was 64.6%. This re-search provides new information regarding a scarcely studied component of the zooplankton in the eastern tropical Pacific and increases the number of hyperiid species reported for the Pacific

  3. Airborne Measurements of BrO and the Sum of HOBr and Br2 over the Tropical West Pacific from 1 to 15 Km During the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dexian; Huey, L. Gregory; Tanner, David J.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Anderson, Daniel C.; Wales, Pamela A.; Pan, Laura L.; Atlas, Elliot L.; Hornbrook, Rebecca S.; Apel, Eric C.; hide

    2016-01-01

    A chemical ionization mass spectrometer was used to measure BrO and HOBr + Br2 over the Tropical West Pacific Ocean within the altitude range of 1 to 15 km, during the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) campaign in 2014. Isolated episodes of elevated BrO (up to 6.6 pptv) and/or HOBr + Br2 (up to 7.3 pptv) were observed in the tropical free troposphere (TFT) and were associated with biomass burning. However, most of the time we did not observe significant BrO or HOBr + Br2 in the TFT and the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) above our limits of detection (LOD). The 1 min average LOD for BrO ranged from 0.6 to 1.6 pptv and for HOBr + Br2 ranged from 1.3 to 3.5 pptv. During one flight, BrO observations from the TTL to the extratropical lowermost stratosphere were used to infer a profile of inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)). Based on this profile, we estimated the product gas injection of bromine species into the stratosphere to be 2 pptv. Analysis of Br(sub y) partitioning further indicates that BrO levels are likely very low in the TFT environment and that future studies should target the measurement of HBr or atomic Br.

  4. The first report of a microdiverse anammox bacteria community in waters of Colombian Pacific, a transition area between prominent oxygen minimum zones of the eastern tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-González, M; Molina, V; Rodríguez-Rubio, E; Ulloa, O

    2014-12-01

    Anaerobic ammonium oxidizers contribute to the removal of fixed nitrogen in oxygen-deficient marine ecosystems such as oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). Here we surveyed for the first time the occurrence and diversity of anammox bacteria in the Colombian Pacific, a transition area between the prominent South and North Pacific OMZs. Anammox bacteria were detected in the coastal and oceanic areas of the Colombian Pacific in low oxygen (Chile and Arabian Sea) within Candidatus ‘Scalindua spp’. Moreover, some anammox bacteria OTUs shared a low similarity with environmental phylotypes (86–94%). Our results indicated that a microdiverse anammox community inhabits the Colombian Pacific, generating new questions about the ecological and biogeochemical differences influencing its community structure.

  5. Trends in Upper-Level Cloud Cover and Surface Divergence Over the Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean Between 1952 And 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Joel R.

    2005-01-01

    This study investigated the spatial pattern of linear trends in surface-observed upper-level (combined mid-level and High-level) cloud cover, precipitation, and surface divergence over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean during 1952-1957. Cloud values were obtained from the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA), precipitation values were obtained from the Hulme/Climate Research Unit Data Set, and surface divergence was alternatively calculated from wind reported Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and from Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed sea level pressure data.

  6. The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hye-Mi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Yoo, Jin Ho

    2014-01-01

    This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

  7. Cleaning interactions by gobies on a tropical eastern Pacific coral reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quimbayo, J P; Zapata, F A

    2018-04-01

    The present study describes the cleaning interactions among species of cleaner gobies Tigrigobius spp. and Elacatinus puncticulatus (family Gobiidae) and the client fish species they clean in a coral reef of Gorgona Island, Colombia. In 419 cleaning events, we observed 27 species acting as clients of Tigrigobius spp., whereas only nine were clients of E. puncticulatus. Paranthias colonus and Cephalopholis panamensis were the species most commonly cleaned by Tigrigobius spp., while Ophioblennius steindachneri and Stegastes acalpulcoensis were the clients most commonly cleaned by E. puncticulatus. The abundance (but not the body size) of clients was an important variable predicting the cleaning frequency observed for clients of Tigrigobius spp., but this was not the case for clients of E. puncticulatus. Additionally, Tigrigobius spp. preferred cleaning planktivores, sessile invertebrate feeders and territorial herbivores (Ivlev's index >0·15), whereas E. puncticulatus did not exhibit any preference. We observed two major peaks of cleaning activity for Tigrigobius spp., one in the early morning and another one in the late afternoon. These results suggest that Tigrigobius spp. is a specialized cleaner goby, whereas E. puncticulatus is a facultative cleaner that cleans sporadically. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  8. Lightning Prediction using Electric Field Measurements Associated with Convective Events at a Tropical Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jana, S.; Chakraborty, R.; Maitra, A.

    2017-12-01

    Nowcasting of lightning activities during intense convective events using a single electric field monitor (EFM) has been carried out at a tropical location, Kolkata (22.65oN, 88.45oE). Before and at the onset of heavy lightning, certain changes of electric field (EF) can be related to high liquid water content (LWC) and low cloud base height (CBH). The present study discusses the utility of EF observation to show a few aspects of convective events. Large convective cloud showed by high LWC and low CBH can be detected from EF variation which could be a precursor of upcoming convective events. Suitable values of EF gradient can be used as an indicator of impending lightning events. An EF variation of 0.195 kV/m/min can predict lightning within 17.5 km radius with a probability of detection (POD) of 91% and false alarm rate (FAR) of 8% with a lead time of 45 min. The total number of predicted lightning strikes is nearly 9 times less than that measured by the lightning detector. This prediction technique can, therefore, give an estimate of cloud to ground (CG) and intra cloud (IC) lighting occurrences within the surrounding area. This prediction technique involving POD, FAR and lead time information shows a better prediction capability compared to the techniques reported earlier. Thus an EFM can be effectively used for prediction of lightning events at a tropical location.

  9. PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saber, Esmail M.; Lee, Siew Eang; Manthapuri, Sumanth; Yi, Wang; Deb, Chirag

    2014-01-01

    Air pollution and climate change increased the importance of renewable energy resources like solar energy in the last decades. Rack-mounted PhotoVoltaics (PV) and Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics (BIPV) are the most common photovoltaic systems which convert incident solar radiation on façade or surrounding area to electricity. In this paper the performance of different solar cell types is evaluated for the tropical weather of Singapore. As a case study, on-site measured data of PV systems implemented in a zero energy building in Singapore, is analyzed. Different types of PV systems (silicon wafer and thin film) have been installed on rooftop, façade, car park shelter, railing and etc. The impact of different solar cell generations, arrays environmental conditions (no shading, dappled shading, full shading), orientation (South, North, East or West facing) and inclination (between PV module and horizontal direction) is investigated on performance of modules. In the second stage of research, the whole PV systems in the case study are simulated in EnergyPlus energy simulation software with several PV performance models including Simple, Equivalent one-diode and Sandia. The predicted results by different models are compared with measured data and the validated model is used to provide simulation-based energy yield predictions for wide ranges of scenarios. It has been concluded that orientation of low-slope rooftop PV has negligible impact on annual energy yield but in case of PV external sunshade, east façade and panel slope of 30–40° are the most suitable location and inclination. - Highlights: • Characteristics of PV systems in tropics are analyzed in depth. • The ambiguity toward amorphous panel energy yield in tropics is discussed. • Equivalent-one diode and Sandia models can fairly predict the energy yield. • A general guideline is provided to estimate the energy yield of PV systems in tropics

  10. N2 fixation as a dominant new N source in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean (OUTPACE cruise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Caffin

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We performed nitrogen (N budgets in the photic layer of three contrasting stations representing different trophic conditions in the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP Ocean during austral summer conditions (February–March 2015. Using a Lagrangian strategy, we sampled the same water mass for the entire duration of each long-duration (5 days station, allowing us to consider only vertical exchanges for the budgets. We quantified all major vertical N fluxes both entering (N2 fixation, nitrate turbulent diffusion, atmospheric deposition and leaving the photic layer (particulate N export. The three stations were characterized by a strong nitracline and contrasted deep chlorophyll maximum depths, which were lower in the oligotrophic Melanesian archipelago (MA, stations LD A and LD B than in the ultra-oligotrophic waters of the South Pacific Gyre (SPG, station LD C. N2 fixation rates were extremely high at both LD A (593 ± 51 µmol N m−2 d−1 and LD B (706 ± 302 µmol N m−2 d−1, and the diazotroph community was dominated by Trichodesmium. N2 fixation rates were lower (59 ± 16 µmol N m−2 d−1 at LD C, and the diazotroph community was dominated by unicellular N2-fixing cyanobacteria (UCYN. At all stations, N2 fixation was the major source of new N (> 90 % before atmospheric deposition and upward nitrate fluxes induced by turbulence. N2 fixation contributed circa 13–18 % of primary production in the MA region and 3 % in the SPG water and sustained nearly all new primary production at all stations. The e ratio (e ratio  =  particulate carbon export ∕ primary production was maximum at LD A (9.7 % and was higher than the e ratio in most studied oligotrophic regions (< 5 %, indicating a high efficiency of the WTSP to export carbon relative to primary production. The direct export of diazotrophs assessed by qPCR of the nifH gene in sediment traps represented up to

  11. Knowledge-exchange in the Pacific: outcomes of the TROPIC (translational research for obesity prevention in communities project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kremer

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Pacific TROPIC (Translational Research for Obesity Prevention in Communities project aimed to design, implement and evaluate a knowledge-broking approach to evidence-informed policy making to address obesity in Fiji. This paper reports on the quantitative evaluation of the knowledge-broking intervention through assessment of participants’ perceptions of evidence use and development of policy/advocacy briefs. Methods Selected staff from six organizations - four government Ministries and two nongovernment organizations (NGOs - participated in the project. The intervention comprised workshops and supported development of policy/advocacy briefs. Workshops addressed obesity and policy cycles and developing participants’ skills in accessing, assessing, adapting and applying relevant evidence. A knowledge-broking team supported participants individually and/or in small groups to develop evidence-informed policy/advocacy briefs. A questionnaire survey that included workplace and demographic items and the self-assessment tool “Is Research Working for You?” (IRWFY was administered pre- and post-intervention. Results Forty nine individuals (55% female, 69% 21–40 years, 69% middle-senior managers participated in the study. The duration and level of participant engagement with the intervention activities varied – just over half participated for 10+ months, just under half attended most workshops and approximately one third produced one or more policy briefs. There were few reliable changes on the IRWFY scales following the intervention; while positive changes were found on several scales, these effects were small (d < .2 and only one individual scale (assess was statistically significant (p < .05. Follow up (N = 1 analyses of individual-level change indicated that while 63% of participants reported increased research utilization post-intervention, this proportion was not different to chance levels. Similar analysis

  12. Quantifying the sources and sinks of nitrite in the oxygen minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Qixing; Widner, Brittany; Jayakumar, Amal; Ward, Bess; Mulholland, Margaret

    2017-04-01

    In coastal upwelling regions, high surface productivity leads to high export and intense remineralization consuming oxygen. This, in combination with slow ventilation, creates oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) in eastern boundary regions of the ocean, such as the one off the Peruvian coast in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific. The OMZ is characterized by a layer of high nitrite concentration coinciding with water column anoxia. Sharp oxygen gradients are located above and below the anoxic layer (upper and lower oxyclines). Thus, the OMZ harbors diverse microbial metabolisms, several of which involve the production and consumption of nitrite. The sources of nitrite are ammonium oxidation and nitrate reduction. The sinks of nitrite include anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox), canonical denitrification and nitrite oxidation to nitrate. To quantify the sources and sinks of nitrite in the Peruvian OMZ, incubation experiments with 15N-labeled substrates (ammonium, nitrite and nitrate) were conducted on a research cruise in January 2015. The direct measurements of instantaneous nitrite production and consumption rates were compared with ambient nitrite concentrations to evaluate the turnover rate of nitrite in the OMZ. The distribution of nitrite in the water column showed a two-peak structure. A primary nitrite maximum (up to 0.5 μM) was located in the upper oxycline. A secondary nitrite maximum (up to 10 μM) was found in the anoxic layer. A nitrite concentration minimum occurred at the oxic-anoxic interface just below the upper oxycline. For the sources of nitrite, highest rates of ammonium oxidation and nitrate reduction were detected in the upper oxycline, where both nitrite and oxygen concentrations were low. Lower rates of nitrite production were detected within the layer of secondary nitrite maximum. For the sinks of nitrite, the rates of anammox, denitrification and nitrite oxidation were the highest just below the oxic-anoxic interface. Low nitrite consumption

  13. Aphotic N2 fixation along an oligotrophic to ultraoligotrophic transect in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, Mar; Shoemaker, Katyanne M.; Moisander, Pia H.; Niggemann, Jutta; Dittmar, Thorsten; Duhamel, Solange; Grosso, Olivier; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Hélias-Nunige, Sandra; Fumenia, Alain; Bonnet, Sophie

    2018-05-01

    The western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) Ocean has been recognized as a global hot spot of dinitrogen (N2) fixation. Here, as in other marine environments across the oceans, N2 fixation studies have focused on the sunlit layer. However, studies have confirmed the importance of aphotic N2 fixation activity, although until now only one had been performed in the WTSP. In order to increase our knowledge of aphotic N2 fixation in the WTSP, we measured N2 fixation rates and identified diazotrophic phylotypes in the mesopelagic layer along a transect spanning from New Caledonia to French Polynesia. Because non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs presumably need external dissolved organic matter (DOM) sources for their nutrition, we also identified DOM compounds using Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICRMS) with the aim of searching for relationships between the composition of DOM and non-cyanobacterial N2 fixation in the aphotic ocean. N2 fixation rates were low (average 0.63 ± 0.07 nmol N L-1 d-1) but consistently detected across all depths and stations, representing ˜ 6-88 % of photic N2 fixation. N2 fixation rates were not significantly correlated with DOM compounds. The analysis of nifH gene amplicons revealed a wide diversity of non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs, mostly matching clusters 1 and 3. Interestingly, a distinct phylotype from the major nifH subcluster 1G dominated at 650 dbar, coinciding with the oxygenated Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). This consistent pattern suggests that the distribution of aphotic diazotroph communities is to some extent controlled by water mass structure. While the data available are still too scarce to elucidate the distribution and controls of mesopelagic non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs in the WTSP, their prevalence in the mesopelagic layer and the consistent detection of active N2 fixation activity at all depths sampled during our study suggest that aphotic N2 fixation may contribute significantly to fixed

  14. An ecosystem services perspective for the oceanic eastern tropical Pacific: commercial fisheries, carbon storage, recreational fishing, and biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Summer Lynn Martin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The ocean provides ecosystem services (ES that support humanity. Traditional single-issue management largely failed to protect the full suite of ES. Ecosystem-based management (EBM promotes resilient social-ecological systems that provide ES. To implement EBM, an ES approach is useful: 1 characterize major ES provided (magnitude, geographic extent, monetary value, trends, and stakeholders, 2 identify trade-offs, 3 determine desired outcomes, and 4 manage anthropogenic activities accordingly. Here we apply the ES approach (steps 1-2 to an open ocean ecosystem, the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP, an area of 21 million km2 that includes waters of 12 nations and the oceanic commons, using 35 years (1975-2010 of fisheries and economic data, and 20 years (1986-2006 of ship-based survey data. We examined commercial fisheries, carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreational fishing as the major provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural ES, respectively. Average catch value (using U.S. import prices for fish for the 10 most commercially fished species was $2.7 billion yr-1. The value of carbon export to the deep ocean was $12.9 billion yr-1 (using average European carbon market prices. For two fisheries-depleted dolphin populations, the potential value of rebuilding carbon stores was $1.6 million (cumulative; for exploited fish stocks it was also $1.6 million (an estimated reduction of 544,000 mt. Sport fishing expenditures totaled $1.2 billion yr-1, from studies of three popular destinations. These initial, conservative estimates do not represent a complete summary of ETP ES values. We produced species richness maps for cetaceans, seabirds, and ichthyoplankton, and a sightings density map for marine turtles. Over 1/3 of cetacean, seabird, and marine turtle species occur in the ETP, and diversity (or density hotspots are widespread. This study fills several gaps in the assessment of marine and coastal ES by focusing on an oceanic habitat

  15. Aphotic N2 fixation along an oligotrophic to ultraoligotrophic transect in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Benavides

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The western tropical South Pacific (WTSP Ocean has been recognized as a global hot spot of dinitrogen (N2 fixation. Here, as in other marine environments across the oceans, N2 fixation studies have focused on the sunlit layer. However, studies have confirmed the importance of aphotic N2 fixation activity, although until now only one had been performed in the WTSP. In order to increase our knowledge of aphotic N2 fixation in the WTSP, we measured N2 fixation rates and identified diazotrophic phylotypes in the mesopelagic layer along a transect spanning from New Caledonia to French Polynesia. Because non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs presumably need external dissolved organic matter (DOM sources for their nutrition, we also identified DOM compounds using Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICRMS with the aim of searching for relationships between the composition of DOM and non-cyanobacterial N2 fixation in the aphotic ocean. N2 fixation rates were low (average 0.63 ± 0.07 nmol N L−1 d−1 but consistently detected across all depths and stations, representing ∼ 6–88 % of photic N2 fixation. N2 fixation rates were not significantly correlated with DOM compounds. The analysis of nifH gene amplicons revealed a wide diversity of non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs, mostly matching clusters 1 and 3. Interestingly, a distinct phylotype from the major nifH subcluster 1G dominated at 650 dbar, coinciding with the oxygenated Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW. This consistent pattern suggests that the distribution of aphotic diazotroph communities is to some extent controlled by water mass structure. While the data available are still too scarce to elucidate the distribution and controls of mesopelagic non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs in the WTSP, their prevalence in the mesopelagic layer and the consistent detection of active N2 fixation activity at all depths sampled during our study suggest that aphotic N2

  16. Nutrient availability and the ultimate control of the biological carbon pump in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutin, Thierry; Wagener, Thibaut; Caffin, Mathieu; Fumenia, Alain; Gimenez, Audrey; Baklouti, Melika; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale; Pujo-Pay, Mireille; Leblanc, Karine; Lefevre, Dominique; Helias Nunige, Sandra; Leblond, Nathalie; Grosso, Olivier; de Verneil, Alain

    2018-05-01

    Surface waters (0-200 m) of the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) were sampled along a longitudinal 4000 km transect (OUTPACE cruise, DOI: 10.17600/15000900) during the austral summer (stratified) period (18 February to 3 April 2015) between the Melanesian Archipelago (MA) and the western part of the SP gyre (WGY). Two distinct areas were considered for the MA, the western MA (WMA), and the eastern MA (EMA). The main carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) pools and fluxes provide a basis for the characterization of the expected trend from oligotrophy to ultra-oligotrophy, and the building of first-order budgets at the daily and seasonal timescales (using climatology). Sea surface chlorophyll a well reflected the expected oligotrophic gradient with higher values obtained at WMA, lower values at WGY, and intermediate values at EMA. As expected, the euphotic zone depth, the deep chlorophyll maximum, and nitracline depth deepen from west to east. Nevertheless, phosphaclines and nitraclines did not match. The decoupling between phosphacline and nitracline depths in the MA allows for excess P to be locally provided in the upper water by winter mixing. We found a significant biological soft tissue carbon pump in the MA sustained almost exclusively by dinitrogen (N2) fixation and essentially controlled by phosphate availability in this iron-rich environment. The MA appears to be a net sink for atmospheric CO2, while the WGY is in quasi-steady state. We suggest that the necessary excess P, allowing the success of nitrogen fixers and subsequent carbon production and export, is mainly brought to the upper surface by local deep winter convection at an annual timescale rather than by surface circulation. While the origin of the decoupling between phosphacline and nitracline remains uncertain, the direct link between local P upper water enrichment, N2 fixation, and organic carbon production and export, offers a possible shorter timescale than previously thought between

  17. Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchail, Josyane; Cochonneau, Gérard; Molinier, Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Chaves, Adriana Goretti De Miranda; Guimarães, Valdemar; de Oliveira, Eurides

    2002-11-01

    Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin is studied in relation to sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and the northern and southern tropical Atlantic during the 1977-99 period, using the HiBAm original rainfall data set and complementary cluster and composite analyses.The northeastern part of the basin, north of 5 °S and east of 60 °W, is significantly related with tropical SSTs: a rainier wet season is observed when the equatorial Pacific and the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic are anomalously cold (warm). A shorter and drier wet season is observed during El Niño events and negative rainfall anomalies are also significantly associated with a warm northern Atlantic in the austral autumn and a cold southern Atlantic in the spring. The northeastern Amazon rainfall anomalies are closely related with El Niño-southern oscillation during the whole year, whereas the relationships with the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are mainly observed during the autumn. A time-space continuity is observed between El Niño-related rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon, those in the northern Amazon and south-eastern Amazon, and those in northern South America and in the Nordeste of Brazil.A reinforcement of certain rainfall anomalies is observed when specific oceanic events combine. For instance, when El Niño and cold SSTs in the southern Atlantic are associated, very strong negative anomalies are observed in the whole northern Amazon basin. Nonetheless, the comparison of the cluster and the composite analyses results shows that the rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon are not always associated with tropical SST anomalies.In the southern and western Amazon, significant tropical SST-related rainfall anomalies are very few and spatially variable. The precipitation origins differ from those of the northeastern Amazon: land temperature variability, extratropical perturbations and moisture advection are important rainfall factors, as well

  18. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

    2005-03-24

    East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

  19. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  20. Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

  1. Deepwater carbonate ion concentrations in the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka: Evidence for oceanic carbon storage and global climate influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Bingbin; Li, Tiegang; Xiong, Zhifang; Algeo, Thomas J.; Chang, Fengming

    2017-04-01

    We present new "size-normalized weight" (SNW)-Δ[CO32-] core-top calibrations for three planktonic foraminiferal species and assess their reliability as a paleo-alkalinity proxy. SNWs of Globigerina sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei can be used to reconstruct past deep Pacific [CO32-], whereas SNWs of Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are controlled by additional environmental factors. Based on this methodological advance, we reconstruct SNW-based deepwater [CO32-] for core WP7 from the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka. Secular variation in the SNW proxy documents little change in deep Pacific [CO32-] between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene. Further back in time, deepwater [CO32-] shows long-term increases from marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e to MIS 3 and from early MIS 7 to late MIS 6, consistent with the "coral reef hypothesis" that the deep Pacific Ocean carbonate system responded to declining shelf carbonate production during these two intervals. During deglaciations, we have evidence of [CO32-] peaks coincident with Terminations 2 and 3, which suggests that a breakdown of oceanic vertical stratification drove a net transfer of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere, causing spikes in carbonate preservation (i.e., the "deglacial ventilation hypothesis"). During MIS 4, a transient decline in SNW-based [CO32-], along with other reported [CO32-] and/or dissolution records, implies that increased deep-ocean carbon storage resulted in a global carbonate dissolution event. These findings provide new insights into the role of the deep Pacific in the global carbon cycle during the late Quaternary.

  2. Analysis of longitudinal variations in North Pacific alkalinity to improve predictive algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fry, Claudia H.; Tyrrell, Toby; Achterberg, Eric P.

    2016-10-01

    The causes of natural variation in alkalinity in the North Pacific surface ocean need to be investigated to understand the carbon cycle and to improve predictive algorithms. We used GLODAPv2 to test hypotheses on the causes of three longitudinal phenomena in Alk*, a tracer of calcium carbonate cycling. These phenomena are (a) an increase from east to west between 45°N and 55°N, (b) an increase from west to east between 25°N and 40°N, and (c) a minor increase from west to east in the equatorial upwelling region. Between 45°N and 55°N, Alk* is higher on the western than on the eastern side, and this is associated with denser isopycnals with higher Alk* lying at shallower depths. Between 25°N and 40°N, upwelling along the North American continental shelf causes higher Alk* in the east. Along the equator, a strong east-west trend was not observed, even though the upwelling on the eastern side of the basin is more intense, because the water brought to the surface is not high in Alk*. We created two algorithms to predict alkalinity, one for the entire Pacific Ocean north of 30°S and one for the eastern margin. The Pacific Ocean algorithm is more accurate than the commonly used algorithm published by Lee et al. (2006), of similar accuracy to the best previously published algorithm by Sasse et al. (2013), and is less biased with longitude than other algorithms in the subpolar North Pacific. Our eastern margin algorithm is more accurate than previously published algorithms.

  3. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-30

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

  4. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  5. Mid-term coral-algal dynamics and conservation status of a Gorgona Island (Tropical Eastern Pacific coral reef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando A Zapata

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Colombian coral reefs, as other reefs worldwide, have deteriorated significantly during the last few decades due to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The National Monitoring System for Coral Reefs in Colombia (SIMAC was established in 1998 to provide long-term data bases to assess the changes of Colombian coral reefs against perturbations and to identify the factors responsible for their decline or recovery. On the Pacific coast, data on coral and algal cover have been collected yearly during seven consecutive years (1998-2004 from 20 permanent transects in two sites at La Azufrada reef, Gorgona Island. Overall, coral cover was high (55.1%-65.7% and algal cover low (28.8%-37.5% and both exhibited significant changes among years, most notably on shallow areas. Differences between sites in both coral and algal cover were present since the study began and may be explained by differences in sedimentation stress derived from soil runoff. Differences between depths most likely stem from the effects of low tidal sub-aerial exposures. Particularly intense sub-aerial exposures occurred repeatedly during January-March, 2001 and accounted for a decrease in coral and an increase in algal cover on shallow depths observed later that year. Additionally, the shallow area on the Northern site seems to be negatively affected by the combined effect of sedimentation and low tidal exposure. However, a decrease in coral cover and an increase of algal cover since 2001 on deep areas at both sites remain unexplained. Comparisons with previous studies suggest that the reef at La Azufrada has been more resilient than other reefs in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (TEP, recovering pre-disturbance (1979 levels of coral cover within a 10 year period after the 1982-83 El Niño, which caused 85% mortality. Furthermore, the effects of the 1997-98 El Niño, indicated by the difference in overall live coral cover between 1998 and 1999, were minor (A través del Sistema

  6. Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sinil; Oh, Jaiho

    2018-02-01

    Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.

  7. Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B; Glynn, P W; Wieters, E; Purkis, S; d'Angelo, C; Wiedenmann, J

    2015-02-05

    Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were <31 years, implying that measured environmental variables indeed shaped populations and community. An Indo-Pacific-wide model suggests reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

  8. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Biogeography of tropical Indo-West Pacific parasites: a cryptic species of Transversotrema and evidence for rarity of Transversotrematidae (Trematoda) in French Polynesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cribb, Thomas H; Adlard, Robert D; Bray, Rodney A; Sasal, Pierre; Cutmore, Scott C

    2014-04-01

    We sought transversotrematid trematodes from French Polynesian fishes by examining 304 individual scaled fishes of 53 species from seven families known to harbour the family elsewhere. A single species was found at two locations in the Tuamotus Archipelago on two species of Chaetodontidae (Chaetodon auriga and Chaetodon ephippium) and one species of Lutjanidae (Lutjanus gibbus). The species closely resembles Transversotrema borboleta Hunter & Cribb, 2012 from chaetodontids and lutjanids of the northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) but differs from it consistently in 8 base positions of ITS2 rDNA. This level of variation exceeds that between some clearly morphologically distinct pairs of species of Transversotrema and the form from French Polynesia is thus interpreted as a distinct, though cryptic, species and named Transversotrema polynesiae n. sp. The new species forms part of a complex of species, here characterised as the T. borboleta complex, associated with chaetodontids and lutjanids in the tropical Indo-West Pacific. Most of the putative species within this complex are yet to be described. Comparison of identical numbers of matched samples of fishes from French Polynesia, Heron Island (southern GBR) and Lizard Island (northern GBR) revealed 1, 4 and 10 species of Transversotrema respectively suggesting that the French Polynesian fauna is depauperate for this family. In addition to those species apparently missing from suitable hosts in French Polynesia, several species from further west infect fishes (especially Nemipteridae) that are themselves absent from French Polynesia. This dramatic east-west decline in richness contrasts strongly with what is known for monogeneans, which appear to maintain their richness over the same scale, and is more precipitate than is known for other groups of trematodes. The decline might be explained in part by the absence of the as yet unknown first intermediate hosts in French Polynesia. However, we predict that it is explained

  10. Influences of two types of El Niño event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Haibo; Wu, Qigang; Wu, Zepeng

    2018-01-01

    Based on the HadISST1 and NCEP datasets, we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Niño event (CP-EL) and eastern Pacific El Niño event (EP-EL) on the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Considering the remote effect of Indian Ocean warming, we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate. Results show that during the El Niño developing year of EP-EL, cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean. At the end of that autumn, all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs. However, considering the statistical significance, more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year. For further research, EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (EPI-EL) and CP El Niño accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming (CPI-EL) events are classified. With the remote effects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies, the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific. For the EPI-EL developing year, large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May, and persist to the autumn of the El Niño decaying year. However, for the CPI-EL, weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Niño decaying spring. Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean, distinct zonal SST gradient, atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Niño decaying years. Specifically, the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years, can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean. The atmospheric

  11. Moisture dynamics of the northward and eastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: possible role of tropical Indo-west Pacific SST and circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Prasanth A.; Sahai, A. K.

    2016-08-01

    Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) has complex spatial structure due to the co-existence of equatorial eastward and off-equatorial northward propagation in the equatorial Indian Ocean. As a result, equatorial Indian Ocean convection has simultaneous northward and eastward (NE), northward only (N-only) and eastward only (E-only) propagations. It is well established that the convection propagates in the direction of increasing moist static energy (MSE). The moisture and MSE budget analysis reveals that the horizontal advection of anomalous MSE contributes to positive MSE tendency, which is in agreement with the horizontal advection of column integrated moisture anomaly. Northward movement of warm SST and the anomalous moisture advected by zonal wind are the major initiative for the northward propagation of convection from the equatorial Indian Ocean in both NE and N-only category. At the same time warm SST anomaly in the equatorial west Pacific along with moisture advection caused by anomalous meridional wind is important for the equatorial eastward branch of NE propagation. As these anomalies in the west Pacific moves northward, equatorial Indian Ocean convection establishes over the equatorial west Pacific. The absence of these processes confines the BSISO in northward direction for N-only category. In the case of E-only movement, warm SST anomaly and moisture advection by zonal component of wind causes the eastward propagation of convection. Boundary layer moisture convergence always remains east of convection center in E-only propagation, while it coincides with convection centre in other two categories. Thus the present study concludes that the difference in underlying SST and atmospheric circulation in tropical Indo-west Pacific oceanic regions encourage the differential propagation of BSISO convection through moisture dynamics.

  12. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  13. Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

    2013-12-01

    Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards

  14. Do abundance distributions and species aggregation correctly predict macroecological biodiversity patterns in tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiegand, Thorsten; Lehmann, Sebastian; Huth, Andreas; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Aim It has been recently suggested that different ‘unified theories of biodiversity and biogeography’ can be characterized by three common ‘minimal sufficient rules’: (1) species abundance distributions follow a hollow curve, (2) species show intraspecific aggregation, and (3) species are independently placed with respect to other species. Here, we translate these qualitative rules into a quantitative framework and assess if these minimal rules are indeed sufficient to predict multiple macroecological biodiversity patterns simultaneously. Location Tropical forest plots in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and in Sinharaja, Sri Lanka. Methods We assess the predictive power of the three rules using dynamic and spatial simulation models in combination with census data from the two forest plots. We use two different versions of the model: (1) a neutral model and (2) an extended model that allowed for species differences in dispersal distances. In a first step we derive model parameterizations that correctly represent the three minimal rules (i.e. the model quantitatively matches the observed species abundance distribution and the distribution of intraspecific aggregation). In a second step we applied the parameterized models to predict four additional spatial biodiversity patterns. Results Species‐specific dispersal was needed to quantitatively fulfil the three minimal rules. The model with species‐specific dispersal correctly predicted the species–area relationship, but failed to predict the distance decay, the relationship between species abundances and aggregations, and the distribution of a spatial co‐occurrence index of all abundant species pairs. These results were consistent over the two forest plots. Main conclusions The three ‘minimal sufficient’ rules only provide an incomplete approximation of the stochastic spatial geometry of biodiversity in tropical forests. The assumption of independent interspecific placements is most

  15. Skill of Global Raw and Postprocessed Ensemble Predictions of Rainfall over Northern Tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Peter; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Schlueter, Andreas; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2018-04-01

    Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) relative to climatology-based forecasts for 1 to 5-day accumulated precipitation based on the monsoon seasons 2007-2014 for three regions within northern tropical Africa. To assess the full potential of raw ensemble forecasts across spatial scales, we apply state-of-the-art statistical postprocessing methods in form of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS), and verify against station and spatially aggregated, satellite-based gridded observations. Raw ensemble forecasts are uncalibrated, unreliable, and underperform relative to climatology, independently of region, accumulation time, monsoon season, and ensemble. Differences between raw ensemble and climatological forecasts are large, and partly stem from poor prediction for low precipitation amounts. BMA and EMOS postprocessed forecasts are calibrated, reliable, and strongly improve on the raw ensembles, but - somewhat disappointingly - typically do not outperform climatology. Most EPSs exhibit slight improvements over the period 2007-2014, but overall have little added value compared to climatology. We suspect that the parametrization of convection is a potential cause for the sobering lack of ensemble forecast skill in a region dominated by mesoscale convective systems.

  16. The Use of Satellite Microwave Rainfall Measurements to Predict Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Derek

    1998-01-01

    .... Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I based rainfall measuring algorithm and current intensity and ensuing 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hour intensity changes from best...

  17. 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dillon, C

    1997-01-01

    .... Separate bulletins are issued for the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - Defines a specific area when synoptic, satellite, or other germane data indicate development of a significant tropical cyclone (TC...

  18. Analyzing the 2010-2011 La Niña signature in the tropical Pacific sea surface salinity using in situ data, SMOS observations, and a numerical simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Audrey; Delcroix, Thierry; Boutin, Jacqueline; Dussin, Raphael; Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim

    2014-06-01

    The tropical Pacific Ocean remained in a La Niña phase from mid-2010 to mid-2012. In this study, the 2010-2011 near-surface salinity signature of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is described and analyzed using a combination of numerical model output, in situ data, and SMOS satellite salinity products. Comparisons of all salinity products show a good agreement between them, with a RMS error of 0.2-0.3 between the thermosalinograph (TSG) and SMOS data and between the TSG and model data. The last 6 months of 2010 are characterized by an unusually strong tripolar anomaly captured by the three salinity products in the western half of the tropical Pacific. A positive SSS anomaly sits north of 10°S (>0.5), a negative tilted anomaly lies between 10°S and 20°S and a positive one south of 20°S. In 2011, anomalies shift south and amplify up to 0.8, except for the one south of 20°S. Equatorial SSS changes are mainly the result of anomalous zonal advection, resulting in negative anomalies during El Niño (early 2010), and positive ones thereafter during La Niña. The mean seasonal and interannual poleward drift exports those anomalies toward the south in the southern hemisphere, resulting in the aforementioned tripolar anomaly. The vertical salinity flux at the bottom of the mixed layer tends to resist the surface salinity changes. The observed basin-scale La Niña SSS signal is then compared with the historical 1998-1999 La Niña event using both observations and modeling.

  19. Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

    2017-11-01

    An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

  20. Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhito Mori

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

  1. Predicting spatial variations of tree species richness in tropical forests from high-resolution remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fricker, Geoffrey A; Wolf, Jeffrey A; Saatchi, Sassan S; Gillespie, Thomas W

    2015-10-01

    There is an increasing interest in identifying theories, empirical data sets, and remote-sensing metrics that can quantify tropical forest alpha diversity at a landscape scale. Quantifying patterns of tree species richness in the field is time consuming, especially in regions with over 100 tree species/ha. We examine species richness in a 50-ha plot in Barro Colorado Island in Panama and test if biophysical measurements of canopy reflectance from high-resolution satellite imagery and detailed vertical forest structure and topography from light detection and ranging (lidar) are associated with species richness across four tree size classes (>1, 1-10, >10, and >20 cm dbh) and three spatial scales (1, 0.25, and 0.04 ha). We use the 2010 tree inventory, including 204,757 individuals belonging to 301 species of freestanding woody plants or 166 ± 1.5 species/ha (mean ± SE), to compare with remote-sensing data. All remote-sensing metrics became less correlated with species richness as spatial resolution decreased from 1.0 ha to 0.04 ha and tree size increased from 1 cm to 20 cm dbh. When all stems with dbh > 1 cm in 1-ha plots were compared to remote-sensing metrics, standard deviation in canopy reflectance explained 13% of the variance in species richness. The standard deviations of canopy height and the topographic wetness index (TWI) derived from lidar were the best metrics to explain the spatial variance in species richness (15% and 24%, respectively). Using multiple regression models, we made predictions of species richness across Barro Colorado Island (BCI) at the 1-ha spatial scale for different tree size classes. We predicted variation in tree species richness among all plants (adjusted r² = 0.35) and trees with dbh > 10 cm (adjusted r² = 0.25). However, the best model results were for understory trees and shrubs (dbh 1-10 cm) (adjusted r² = 0.52) that comprise the majority of species richness in tropical forests. Our results indicate that high

  2. Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, J.B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, C.A.

    2015-01-01

    Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

  3. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  4. Tropical land-sea couplings: Role of watershed deforestation, mangrove estuary processing, and marine inputs on N fluxes in coastal Pacific Panama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valiela, Ivan; Elmstrom, Elizabeth; Lloret, Javier; Stone, Thomas; Camilli, Luis

    2018-07-15

    We review data from coastal Pacific Panama and other tropical coasts with two aims. First, we defined inputs and losses of nitrogen (N) mediating connectivity of watersheds, mangrove estuaries, and coastal sea. N entering watersheds-mainly via N fixation (79-86%)-was largely intercepted; N discharges to mangrove estuaries (3-6%), small compared to N inputs to watersheds, nonetheless significantly supplied N to mangrove estuaries. Inputs to mangrove estuaries (including watershed discharges, and marine inputs during flood tides) were matched by losses (mainly denitrification and export during ebb tides). Mangrove estuary subsidies of coastal marine food webs take place by export of forms of N [DON (62.5%), PN (9.1%), and litter N (12.9%)] that provide dissimilative and assimilative subsidies. N fixation, denitrification, and tidal exchanges were major processes, and DON was major form of N involved in connecting fluxes in and out of mangrove estuaries. Second, we assessed effects of watershed forest cover on connectivity. Decreased watershed forest cover lowered N inputs, interception, and discharge into receiving mangrove estuaries. These imprints of forest cover were erased during transit of N through estuaries, owing to internal N cycle transformations, and differences in relative area of watersheds and estuaries. Largest losses of N consisted of water transport of energy-rich compounds, particularly DON. N losses were similar in magnitude to N inputs from sea, calculated without considering contribution by intermittent coastal upwelling, and hence likely under-estimated. Pacific Panama mangrove estuaries are exposed to major inputs of N from land and sea, which emphasizes the high degree of bi-directional connectivity in these coupled ecosystems. Pacific Panama is still lightly affected by human or global changes. Increased deforestation can be expected, as well as changes in ENSO, which will surely raise watershed-derived loads of N, as well as significantly

  5. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  6. The Predictability of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knippertz, P.; Davis, J.; Fink, A. H.

    2012-04-01

    Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally connected to high-impacts for the local population. Previous work has shown that these events are usually connected to a trough over northwestern Africa, an extensive cloud plume on its eastern side, unusual precipitation at the northern and western fringes of the Sahara, and reduced surface pressure over the southern Sahara and Sahel, which allows an inflow of moist southerlies from the Gulf of Guinea to feed the unusual dry-season rainfalls. These results also suggest that the extratropical influence enhances the predictability of these events on the synoptic timescale. Here we further investigate this question for the 11 dry seasons (November-March) 1998/99-2008/09 using rainfall estimates from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), and operational ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF). All fields are averaged over the study area 7.5-15°N, 10°W-10°E that spans most of southern West Africa. For each 0000 UTC analysis time, the daily precipitation estimates are accumulated to pentads and compared with 120-hour predictions starting at the same time. Compared to TRMM, the ensemble mean shows a weak positive bias, whereas there is a substantial negative bias with regard to GPCP. Temporal correlations reach a high value of 0.8 for both datasets, showing similar synoptic variability despite the differences in total amount. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, resolution and skill, particularly for lower precipitation thresholds. Not surprisingly, forecasts cluster at low probabilities for higher thresholds, but the reliability and ROC score are still reasonably high. The results show that global ensemble prediction systems are capable to predict dry-season rainfall events

  7. Reconstructing Tropical Southwest Pacific Climate Variability and Mean State Changes at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly using Geochemical Proxies from Corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of sub-annually resolved proxy records. We investigate seasonal and interannual variability during the MCA using geochemical records developed from two well preserved Porites lutea fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15.6°S, 166.9°E). Absolute U/Th dates of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE and 1105.1 ± 3.0 CE indicate that the selected fossil corals lived during the MCA. We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity). To provide context for the fossil coral records and test whether the mean state and climate variability at Vanuatu during the MCA is similar to the modern climate, our analysis also incorporates two modern coral records from Sabine Bank (15.9°S, 166.0°E) and Malo Channel (15.7°S, 167.2°E), Vanuatu for comparison. We quantify the uncertainty in our modern and fossil coral SST estimates via replication with multiple, overlapping coral records. Both the modern and fossil corals reproduce their respective mean SST value over their common period of overlap, which is 25 years in both cases. Based on over 100 years of monthly Sr/Ca data from each time period, we find that SSTs at Vanuatu during the MCA are 1.3 ± 0.7°C cooler relative to the modern. We also find that the median amplitude of the annual cycle is 0.8 ± 0.3°C larger during the MCA relative to the modern. Multiple data analysis techniques, including the standard deviation and the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of the annual SST cycle estimates, also show that the MCA has greater annual SST variability relative to the modern. Stable isotope data acquisition is ongoing, and when

  8. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  9. Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegl, B.; Glynn, P. W.; Wieters, E.; Purkis, S.; D'Angelo, C.; Wiedenmann, J.

    2015-02-01

    Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

  10. Species biogeography predicts drought responses in a seasonally dry tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, N.; Powers, J. S.; Vargas, G.; Xu, X.; Smith, C. M.; Brodribb, T.; Werden, L. K.; Becknell, J.; Medvigy, D.

    2017-12-01

    The timing, distribution, and amount of rainfall in the seasonal tropics have shifted in recent years, with consequences for seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF). SDTF are sensitive to changing rainfall regimes and drought conditions, but sensitivity to drought varies substantially across species. One potential explanation of species differences is that species that experience dry conditions more frequently throughout their range will be better able to cope with drought than species from wetter climates, because species from drier climates will be better adapted to drought. An El-Niño induced drought in 2015 presented an opportunity to assess species-level differences in mortality in SDTF, and to ask whether the ranges of rainfall conditions species experience and the average rainfall regimes in species' ranges predict differences in mortality rates in Costa Rican SDTF. We used field plot data from northwest Costa Rica to determine species' level mortality rates. Mortality rates ranged substantially across species, with some species having no dead individuals to as high as 50% mortality. To quantify rainfall conditions across species' ranges, we used species occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and rainfall data from the Chelsa climate dataset. We found that while the average and range of mean annual rainfall across species ranges did not predict drought-induced mortality in the field plots, across-range averages of the seasonality index, a measure of rainfall seasonality, was strongly correlated with species-level drought mortality (r = -0.62, p < 0.05), with species from more strongly seasonal climates experiencing less severe drought mortality. Furthermore, we found that the seasonality index was a stronger predictor of mortality than any individual functional trait we considered. This result shows that species' biogeography may be an important factor for how species will respond to future drought, and may be a more integrative

  11. Ozone phytotoxicity evaluation and prediction of crops production in tropical regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Nurul Izma; Ramli, Nor Azam; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri

    2013-04-01

    Increasing ozone concentration in the atmosphere can threaten food security due to its effects on crop production. Since the 1980s, ozone has been believed to be the most damaging air pollutant to crops. In Malaysia, there is no index to indicate the reduction of crops due to the exposure of ozone. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the accumulated exposure over a threshold of X ppb (AOTX) indexes in assessing crop reduction in Malaysia. In European countries, crop response to ozone exposure is mostly expressed as AOT40. This study was designed to evaluate and predict crop reduction in tropical regions and in particular, the Malaysian climate, by adopting the AOT40 index method and modifying it based on Malaysian air quality and crop data. Nine AOTX indexes (AOT0, AOT5, AOT10, AOT15, AOT20, AOT25, AOT30, AOT40, and AOT50) were analyzed, crop responses tested and reduction in crops predicted. The results showed that the AOT50 resulted in the highest reduction in crops and the highest R2 value between the AOT50 and the crops reduction from the linear regression analysis. Hence, this study suggests that the AOT50 index is the most suitable index to estimate the potential ozone impact on crops in tropical regions. The result showed that the critical level for AOT50 index if the estimated crop reduction is 5% was 1336 ppb h. Additionally, the results indicated that the AOT40 index in Malaysia gave a minimum percentage of 6% crop reduction; as contrasted with the European guideline of 5% (due to differences in the climate e.g., average amount of sunshine).

  12. Functional traits help predict post-disturbance demography of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie

    2014-01-01

    How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.

  13. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Milenkaya

    Full Text Available Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch, a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous

  14. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of

  15. Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Tropical Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al-Amin Danladi Bello

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a tropical river system under climate and land-use changes from the aspects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were evaluated. Nine designed projected climate change scenarios and three future land-use scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF model to determine the impact of climate change and land-use on water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO concentration using basin-wide simulation of river system in Malaysia. The model performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, and DO concentration in a monthly time step simulation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for streamflow was 0.88 for the calibration period and 0.82 for validation period. For water temperature and DO concentration, data from three stations were calibrated and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for both water temperature and DO ranged from 0.53 to 0.70. The output of the calibrated model under climate change scenarios show that increased rainfall and air temperature do not affects DO concentration and water temperature as much as the condition of a decrease in rainfall and increase in air temperature. The regression model on changes in streamflow, DO concentration, and water temperature under the climate change scenarios illustrates that scenarios that produce high to moderate streamflow, produce small predicted change in water temperatures and DO concentrations compared with the scenarios that produced a low streamflow. It was observed that climate change slightly affects the relationship between water temperatures and DO concentrations in the tropical rivers that we

  16. Seasonal Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Predicted by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. W.; Park, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal variation of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) was investigated, using multiple linear regression (MLR) models produced from the PACIFICA (Pacific Ocean interior carbon) dataset. Data within depth ranges of 50-1200m were used to derive MLR models, and three parameters (potential temperature, nitrate, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU)) were chosen as predictor variables because these parameters are associated with vertical mixing, DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) removal and release which all affect Ωarag in water column directly or indirectly. The PACIFICA dataset was divided into 5° × 5° grids, and a MLR model was produced in each grid, giving total 145 independent MLR models over the NPO. Mean RMSE (root mean square error) and r2 (coefficient of determination) of all derived MLR models were approximately 0.09 and 0.96, respectively. Then the obtained MLR coefficients for each of predictor variables and an intercept were interpolated over the study area, thereby making possible to allocate MLR coefficients to data-sparse ocean regions. Predictability from the interpolated coefficients was evaluated using Hawaiian time-series data, and as a result mean residual between measured and predicted Ωarag values was approximately 0.08, which is less than the mean RMSE of our MLR models. The interpolated MLR coefficients were combined with seasonal climatology of World Ocean Atlas 2013 (1° × 1°) to produce seasonal Ωarag distributions over various depths. Large seasonal variability in Ωarag was manifested in the mid-latitude Western NPO (24-40°N, 130-180°E) and low-latitude Eastern NPO (0-12°N, 115-150°W). In the Western NPO, seasonal fluctuations of water column stratification appeared to be responsible for the seasonal variation in Ωarag (~ 0.5 at 50 m) because it closely followed temperature variations in a layer of 0-75 m. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter was the main cause for the seasonal

  17. Validity of a population-specific BMR predictive equation for adults from an urban tropical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahrlich, Vivian; Teixeira, Tatiana Miliante; Anjos, Luiz Antonio Dos

    2018-02-01

    Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an important physiologic measure in nutrition research. In many instances it is not measured but estimated by predictive equations. The purpose of this study was to compare measured BMR (BMRm) with estimated BMR (BMRe) obtained by different equations. A convenient sample of 148 (89 women) 20-60 year-old subjects from the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil participated in the study. BMRm values were measured by an indirect calorimeter and predicted by different equations (Schofield, Henry and Rees, Mifflin-St. Jeor and Anjos. All subjects had their body composition and anthropometric variables also measured. Accuracy of the estimations was established by the percentage of BMRe falling within ±10% of BMRm and bias when the 95% CI of the difference of BMRe and BMRm means did not include zero. Mean BMRm values were 4833.5 (SD 583.3) and 6278.8 (SD 724.0) kJ*day -1 for women and men, respectively. BMRe values were both biased and inaccurate except for values predicted by the Anjos equation. BMR overestimation was approximately 20% for the Schofield equation which was higher comparatively to the Henry and Rees (14.5% and 9.6% for women and men, respectively) and the Mifflin-St. Jeor (approximately 14.0%) equations. BMR estimated by the Anjos equation was unbiased (95% CI = -78.1; 96.3 kJ day -1 for women and -282.6; 30.7 kJ*day -1 for men). Population-specific BMR predictive equations yield unbiased and accurate BMR values in adults from an urban tropical setting. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  18. Silicate:nitrate ratios of upwelled waters control the phytoplankton community sustained by mesoscale eddies in sub-tropical North Atlantic and Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Bibby

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale eddies in sub-tropical gyres physically perturb the water column and can introduce macronutrients to the euphotic zone, stimulating a biological response in which phytoplankton communities can become dominated by large phytoplankton. Mesoscale eddies may therefore be important in driving export in oligotrophic regions of the modern ocean. However, the character and magnitude of the biological response sustained by eddies is variable. Here we present data from mesoscale eddies in the Sargasso Sea (Atlantic and the waters off Hawai'i (Pacific, alongside mesoscale events that affected the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS over the past decade. From this analysis, we suggest that the phytoplankton community structure sustained by mesoscale eddies is predetermined by the relative abundance of silicate over nitrate (Si* in the upwelled waters. We present data that demonstrate that mode-water eddies (MWE in the Sargasso Sea upwell locally formed waters with relatively high Si* to the euphotic zone, and that cyclonic eddies in the Sargasso Sea introduce waters with relatively low Si*, a signature that originated in the iron-limited Southern Ocean. We propose that this phenomenon can explain the observed dominance of the phytoplankton community by large-diatom species in MWE and by small prokaryotic phytoplankton in cyclonic features. In contrast to the Atlantic, North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW with high Si* may influence the cyclonic eddies in waters off Hawai'i, which also appear capable of sustaining diatom populations. These observations suggest that the structure of phytoplankton communities sustained by eddies may be related to the chemical composition of the upwelled waters in addition to the physical nature of the eddy.

  19. Basin scale variability of active diazotrophs and nitrogen fixation in the North Pacific, from the tropics to the subarctic Bering Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiozaki, Takuhei; Bombar, Deniz; Riemann, Lasse; Hashihama, Fuminori; Takeda, Shigenobu; Yamaguchi, Tamaha; Ehama, Makoto; Hamasaki, Koji; Furuya, Ken

    2017-06-01

    Nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (diazotrophs) provide biologically available nitrogen to plankton communities and thereby greatly influence the productivity in many marine regions. Various cyanobacterial groups have traditionally been considered the major oceanic diazotrophs, but later noncyanobacterial and presumably heterotrophic diazotrophs were also found to be widespread and potentially important in nitrogen fixation. However, the distribution and activity of different diazotroph groups is still poorly constrained for most oceanic ecosystems. Here we examined diazotroph community structure and activity along a 7500 km south-north transect between the central equatorial Pacific and the Bering Sea. Nitrogen fixation contributed up to 84% of new production in the upper waters of the subtropical gyre, where the diazotroph community included the gammaproteobacterium γ-24774A11 and highly active cyanobacterial phylotypes (>50% of total nifH transcript abundance). Nitrogen fixation was sometimes detectable down to 150 m depth and extended horizontally to the edge of the gyre at around 35°N. Nitrogen fixation was even detected far north on the Bering Sea shelf. In the Alaskan Coastal Waters on the Bering Sea shelf, low nitrate together with high dissolved iron concentrations seemed to foster diazotroph growth, including a prominent role of UCYN-A2, which was abundant near the surface (1.2×105 nifH gene copies L-1). Our study provides evidence for nitrogen fixation in the Bering Sea and suggests a clear contrast in the composition of diazotrophs between the tropical/subtropical gyre and the separate waters in the cold northern regions of the North Pacific.

  20. Dimethyl sulfide: Less important than long-range transport as a source of sulfate to the remote tropical Pacific marine boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Rebecca M. C.; Howell, Steven G.; Blomquist, Byron W.; Clarke, Antony D.; Huebert, Barry J.

    2014-07-01

    During the Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE), dimethyl sulfide (DMS) was not the principal source of non-sea salt sulfate (NSS) mass in the remote marine boundary layer (MBL), according to an Eulerian sulfur budget based on observations of chemical concentrations from the NCAR C-130 in relatively dry, subsiding regions of the tropical Pacific. Our three (DMS, SO2, and NSS) monthly-average budgets are mutually consistent. The PASE-average DMS emission was 3.0 ± 0.5μmol m-2 d-1 (our budget "units"). SO2 sources include DMS + OH (1.4 ± 0.4 units, assuming 75% of reacted DMS forms SO2) and entrainment from the free troposphere (FT) (0.8 ± 0.2 units). Clouds were the most important chemical reactors for SO2 (-1.0 ± 0.5 units). SO2 loss terms also include divergence (-0.9 ± 0.3 units), dry deposition (-0.5 ± 0.2 units), and OH + SO2 (-0.22 ± 0.05 units). The total SO2 loss balanced the SO2 source. We assume that no SO2 was lost to ozone oxidation on sea salt particles; we found negligible NSS on particles from 2.6 μm (the sea salt mass peak) to 10 μm diameter. Fine-particle NSS sources include in-cloud oxidation of SO2 by H2O2 (1.0 ± 0.5 units), OH + SO2 (0.19 ± 0.05 units), and entrainment (1.1 ± 0.3 units in clean conditions; twice that when continental pollution is present). NSS sources balance NSS loss to divergence. Only about one fourth of emitted DMS becomes NSS. FT entrainment supplied two thirds and DMS oxidation produced one third of MBL NSS, rather similar source terms.

  1. Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

    2018-02-01

    This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

  2. Molecular phylogenetic analysis of the Persea group (Lauraceae) and its biogeographic implications on the evolution of tropical and subtropical Amphi-Pacific disjunctions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lang; Li, Jie; Rohwer, Jens G; van der Werff, Henk; Wang, Zhi-Hua; Li, Hsi-Wen

    2011-09-01

    The Persea group (Lauraceae) has a tropical and subtropical amphi-pacific disjunct distribution with most of its members, and it includes two Macaronesian species. The relationships within the group are still controversial, and its intercontinental disjunction has not been investigated with extensive sampling and precise time dating. • ITS and LEAFY intron II sequences of 78 Persea group species and nine other Lauraceae species were analyzed with maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Divergence time estimation employed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method under a relaxed clock. • Several traditional genera or subgenera within the Persea group form well-supported monophyletic groups except Alseodaphne and Dehaasia. The divergence time of the Persea group is estimated as ∼55.3 (95% higher posterior densities [HPD] 41.4-69.9) million years ago (mya). Two major divergences within the Persea group are estimated as ∼51.9 (95% HPD 38.9-63.9) mya and ∼48.5 (95% HPD 35.9-59.9) mya. • Persea can be retained as a genus by the inclusion of Apollonias barbujana and exclusion a few species that do not fit into the established subgenera. A major revision is recommended for the delimitation between Alseodaphne, Dehaasia, and Nothaphoebe. We suggest that the Persea group originated from the Perseeae-Laureae radiation in early Eocene Laurasia. Its amphi-pacific disjunction results from the disruption of boreotropical flora by climatic cooling during the mid- to late Eocene. The American-Macaronesian disjunction may be explained by the long-distance dispersal.

  3. The tropospheric biennial oscillation defined by a biennial mode of sea surface temperature and its impact on the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinju; Kim, Kwang-Yul

    2016-10-01

    Temporal and spatial patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Indo-Pacific region are analyzed in conjunction with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation as represented by the biennial mode of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The biennial components of key variables are identified independently of other variability via CSEOF analysis. Then, its impact on the Asian-Australian monsoon is examined. The biennial mode exhibits a seasonally distinctive atmospheric response over the tropical eastern Indo-western Pacific (EIWP) region (90°-150°E, 20°S-20°N). In boreal summer, local meridional circulation is a distinguishing characteristic over the tropical EIWP region, whereas a meridionally expanded branch of intensified zonal circulation develops in austral summer. Temporally varying evolution and distinct timing of SSTA phase transition in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is considered a main factor for this variation of circulation in the tropical EIWP region. The impact of the biennial mode is not the same between the two seasons, with different impacts over ocean areas in Asian monsoon and Australian monsoon regions.

  4. A hypothesis and a case-study projection of an influence of MJO modulation on boreal-summer tropical cyclogenesis in a warmer climate with a global non-hydrostatic model: a transition toward the central Pacific?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAZUYOSHI eOOUCHI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The eastward shift of the enhanced activity of tropical cyclone to the central Pacific is a robust projection result for a future warmer climate, and is shared by most of the state-of-the-art climate models. The shift has been argued to originate from the underlying El-Ñino like sea-surface temperature (SST forcing. This study explores the possibility that the change of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO can be an additional, if not alternative, contributor to the shift, using the dataset of Yamada et al. (2010 from a global non-hydrostatic 14-km grid mesh time-slice experiment for a boreal-summer case. Within the case-study framework, we develop the hypothesis that an eastward shift of the high-activity area of the MJO, as manifested itself as the significant intra-seasonal modulation of the enhanced precipitation, is associated with the increased tropical cyclogenesis potential over the North central Pacific by regulating cyclonic relative vorticity and vertical shear. In contrast, the North Indian Ocean and maritime continent undergo relatively diminished genesis potential. An implication is that uncertainty in the future tropical cyclogenesis in some part of the Pacific and other ocean basins could be reduced if projection of the MJO and its connection with the underlying SST environment can be better understood and constrained by the improvement of climate models.

  5. Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the

  6. Atmospheric salt deposition in a tropical mountain rainforest at the eastern Andean slopes of south Ecuador – Pacific or Atlantic origin?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Makowski Giannoni

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea salt (NaCl has recently been proven to be of the utmost importance for ecosystem functioning in Amazon lowland forests because of its impact on herbivory, litter decomposition and, thus, carbon cycling. Sea salt deposition should generally decline as distance from its marine source increases. For the Amazon, a negative east–west gradient of sea salt availability is assumed as a consequence of the barrier effect of the Andes Mountains for Pacific air masses. However, this generalized pattern may not hold for the tropical mountain rainforest in the Andes of southern Ecuador. To analyse sea salt availability, we investigated the deposition of sodium (Na+ and chloride (Cl−, which are good proxies of sea spray aerosol. Because of the complexity of the terrain and related cloud and rain formation processes, sea salt deposition was analysed from both, rain and occult precipitation (OP along an altitudinal gradient over a period between 2004 and 2009. To assess the influence of easterly and westerly air masses on the deposition of sodium and chloride over southern Ecuador, sea salt aerosol concentration data from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC reanalysis data set and back-trajectory statistical methods were combined. Our results, based on deposition time series, show a clear difference in the temporal variation of sodium and chloride concentration and Na+ ∕ Cl− ratio in relation to height and exposure to winds. At higher elevations, sodium and chloride present a higher seasonality and the Na+ ∕ Cl− ratio is closer to that of sea salt. Medium- to long-range sea salt transport exhibited a similar seasonality, which shows the link between our measurements at high elevations and the sea salt synoptic transport. Although the influence of the easterlies was predominant regarding the atmospheric circulation, the statistical analysis of trajectories and hybrid receptor models revealed a stronger impact of the

  7. Impact of East Asian Winter and Australian Summer Monsoons on the Enhanced Surface Westerlies over the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean Preceding the El Niño Onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Zhang, R.; Bourassa, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Composite analysis from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis datasets over the period 1948-2007 indicates that stronger East Asian winter monsoons (EAWM) and stronger Australian summer monsoons (ASM) generally co-exist in boreal winters preceding the onset of El Niño, although the EAWM tend to be weak after 1990, probably because of the decadal shift of EAWM and the change in El Niño events from cold-tongue type to warm-pool type. The anomalous EAWM and ASM enhance surface westerlies over the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTP). It is proposed that the enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP prior to El Niño onset are generally associated with the concurrent anomalous EAWM and ASM. A simple analytical atmospheric model is constructed to test the hypothesis that the emergence of enhanced surface westerlies over the WTP can be linked to concurrent EAWM and ASM anomalies. Model results indicate that when anomalous northerlies from the EAWM converge with anomalous southerlies from the ASM, westerly anomalies over the WTP are enhanced. This result provides a possible explanation of the co-impact of the EAWM and the ASM on the onset of El Niño through enhancing the surface westerly over the WTP.

  8. Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

    2017-12-01

    We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

  9. Morphology and molecular phylogeny of Paragorgia rubra sp. nov. (Cnidaria: Octocorallia), a new bubblegum coral species from a seamount in the tropical Western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Zhan, Zifeng; Xu, Kuidong

    2017-07-01

    A new species of bubblegum coral, Paragorgia rubra sp. nov., discovered from a seamount at a water depth of 373 m near the Yap Trench is studied using morphological and molecular approaches. Paragorgia rubra sp. nov. is the fourth species of the genus found in the tropical Western Pacific. The new gorgonian is red-colored, uniplanar, and measures approximately 530 mm high and 440 mm wide, with autozooids distributed only on one side of the colony. Paragorgia rubra sp. nov. is most similar to P. kaupeka Sánchez, 2005, but differs distinctly in the polyp ovals with large and compound protuberances (vs. small and simple conical protuberances) and the medullar spindles possessing simple conical protuberances (vs. compound protuberances). Moreover, P. rubra sp. nov. differs from P. kaupeka in the smaller length/width ratio of surface radiates (1.53 vs. 1.75). The genetic distance of the mtMutS gene between P. rubra sp. nov. and P. kaupeka is 0.66%, while the intraspecific distances within Paragorgia Milne-Edwards & Haime, 1857 except the species P. regalis complex are no more than 0.5%, further supporting the establishment of the new species. Furthermore, the ITS2 secondary structure of P. rubra sp. nov. is also different from those of congeners. Phylogenetic analyses indicate Paragorgia rubra sp. nov. and P. kaupeka form a clade, which branched early within Paragorgia and diversified approximately 15 Mya.

  10. Data Normalization to Accelerate Training for Linear Neural Net to Predict Tropical Cyclone Tracks

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    Jian Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available When pure linear neural network (PLNN is used to predict tropical cyclone tracks (TCTs in South China Sea, whether the data is normalized or not greatly affects the training process. In this paper, min.-max. method and normal distribution method, instead of standard normal distribution, are applied to TCT data before modeling. We propose the experimental schemes in which, with min.-max. method, the min.-max. value pair of each variable is mapped to (−1, 1 and (0, 1; with normal distribution method, each variable’s mean and standard deviation pair is set to (0, 1 and (100, 1. We present the following results: (1 data scaled to the similar intervals have similar effects, no matter the use of min.-max. or normal distribution method; (2 mapping data to around 0 gains much faster training speed than mapping them to the intervals far away from 0 or using unnormalized raw data, although all of them can approach the same lower level after certain steps from their training error curves. This could be useful to decide data normalization method when PLNN is used individually.

  11. Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

    2017-07-01

    There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

  12. The Influence of Basaltic Islands on the Oceanic REE Distribution: A Case Study From the Tropical South Pacific

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    Mario Molina-Kescher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Rare Earth Elements (REEs have been widely used to investigate marine biogeochemical processes as well as the sources and mixing of water masses. However, there are still important uncertainties about the global aqueous REE cycle with respect to the contributions of highly reactive basaltic minerals originating from volcanic islands and the role of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD. Here we present dissolved REE concentrations obtained from waters at the island-ocean interface (including SGD, river, lagoon and coastal waters from the island of Tahiti and from three detailed open ocean profiles on the Manihiki Plateau (including neodymium (Nd isotope compositions, which are located in ocean currents downstream of Tahiti. Tahitian fresh waters have highly variable REE concentrations that likely result from variable water–rock interaction and removal by secondary minerals. In contrast to studies on other islands, the SGD samples do not exhibit elevated REE concentrations but have distinctive REE distributions and Y/Ho ratios. The basaltic Tahitian rocks impart a REE pattern to the waters characterized by a middle REE enrichment, with a peak at europium similar to groundwaters and coastal waters of other volcanic islands in the Pacific. However, the basaltic island REE characteristics (with the exception of elevated Y/Ho ratios are lost during transport to the Manihiki Plateau within surface waters that also exhibit highly radiogenic Nd isotope signatures. Our new data demonstrate that REE concentrations are enriched in Tahitian coastal water, but without multidimensional sampling, basaltic island Nd flux estimates range over orders of magnitude from relatively small to globally significant. Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW loses its characteristic Nd isotopic signature (−6 to −9 around the Manihiki Plateau as a consequence of mixing with South Equatorial Pacific Intermediate Water (SEqPIW, which shows more positive values (−1 to

  13. Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Maofeng

    Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

  14. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  15. Varied representation of the West Pacific pattern in multiple dynamical seasonal predictions of APCC-MME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Young

    2017-04-01

    phenomena: East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), Atlantic dipole, Pacific/Atlantic jets and Pacific/Atlantic Hadley circulations. Changes in structure and amplitude of them are diagnosed in terms of root mean square error, pattern correlation, intensity bias, zonal displacement and/or downstream extension. There is consistent strengthening/downstream extension of Atlantic jet and absence of southern divergence cell of Atlantic Hadley in most seasonal prediction models. It is demonstrated that WP representation has something to do with bias of Atlantic winter climatology (Atlantic dipole and Atlantic jet) from scatter plot and regression analysis. This implies the importance of realistic simulation of winter climatology further upstream for better WP representation. A fundamental conclusion of this study is that the representation of primary WP features varies among individual models of APCC-MME and it is significantly dependent on the deficiencies of some winter mean climatological patterns.

  16. Limits of agricultural greenhouse gas calculators to predict soil N2O and CH4 fluxes in tropical agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Meryl; Metzel, Ruth; Chirinda, Ngonidzashe; Ly, Proyuth; Nyamadzawo, George; Duong Vu, Quynh; de Neergaard, Andreas; Oelofse, Myles; Wollenberg, Eva; Keller, Emma; Malin, Daniella; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Hillier, Jonathan; Rosenstock, Todd S.

    2016-05-01

    Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of ‘GHG calculators’— simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of the cases, exceeding twice the measured flux nearly half the time. For 41% of the comparisons, calculators incorrectly predicted whether emissions would increase or decrease with a change in management. These results raise concerns about applying GHG calculators to tropical farming systems and emphasize the need to broaden the scope of the underlying data.

  17. Barotropic Interactions Between Summertime Tropical Cyclones/Sub-Monthly Wave Patterns and Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Western North Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken-Chung Ko Huang-Hsiung Hsu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study used the barotropic kinetic energy conversion to record the active eddy-mean flow interaction between the TC/sub-monthly wave pattern (TSM and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO in the western North Pacific (WNP. Overall, the TSM extracted (lost kinetic energy from (to the cyclonic (anticyclonic circulation of the ISO, which is located in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, during the ISO westerly (easterly phase. The phase change in barotropic energy conversion was due to the opposite background flow set up by the ISO. When the climatological-mean southwesterly was retained as part of the background flow in both ISO westerly and easterly phases as in previous studies, the ISO along with the low-frequency background flow always provided kinetic energy to the TSM regardless of the phase. The stronger (weaker southwesterly in the ISO westerly (easterly phase, the stronger (weaker energy conversion to the TSM. Climatological mean flow exclusion showed an upscale feedback in the TSM to the ISO during the easterly phase. However, this feedback was weaker than the downscale conversion from the ISO to the TSM during the westerly phase.

  18. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  19. Elasmobranchs observed in deepwaters (45-330m at Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica (Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco is an oceanic island 500km off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. It is a National Park and its marine fauna has been relatively well protected. The island is famous for its elasmobranch (sharks, rays and skates sightings in shallow waters. Here we present a catalogue of the deepwater elasmobranchs observed with the DeepSee submersible. Five species of sharks, six species of skates and one ray have been observed between 45 and 330m depth. Triaenodon obesus, the white tip reef shark, was commonly observed between 80 and 301m, but only in the afternoons. Sphyrna lewini, the scalloped hammerhead shark, was observed as deep a 303m, but commonly between 45 and 90m, and close to the island. Odontaspis ferox, the smalltooth sand tiger shark, was observed between 82 and 316m. Echinorhinus cookei, the prickly shark, was observed between 91 and 320m. Rhincodon typus, the whale shark, was observed only close to the island, between 77 and 80m. Taeniura meyeni, the marbled ray, was observed only close to the island, between 45 and 90m. A Dasyatis sp., similar to the the diamond stingray, was observed only once close to the island at 60m; this is the first report of this genus at Isla del Coco National Park. Manta birostris, the giant manta, was only observed close to the island at 90m. Mobula tarapacana, the sicklefin devil ray, was observed between 60 and 326m, extending its maximum depth almost 10 times what has been reported. Aetobatus narinari, the spotted eagle ray, was observed only close to the island between 60 and 82m. Torpedo peruana, the Peruvian torpedo ray, was observed only once at 313m, and is the first record of this species from Isla del Coco National Park.

  20. Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.

    2012-01-01

    The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

  1. Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2012-12-15

    The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)

  2. Mesozooplankton structure and functioning in the western tropical South Pacific along the 20° parallel south during the OUTPACE survey (February-April 2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlotti, François; Pagano, Marc; Guilloux, Loïc; Donoso, Katty; Valdés, Valentina; Hunt, Brian P. V.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents results on the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of mesozooplankton in the western tropical South Pacific along the 20 °S south visited during austral summer (February-April 2015). By contributing to the interdisciplinary OUTPACE (Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy PACific Experiment) project (Moutin et al., 2017), the specific aims of this study dedicated to mesozooplankton observations were (1) to document the responses of zooplankton in terms of species diversity, density and biomass along the transect, and (2) to characterize the trophic pathways from primary production to large mesozooplanktonic organisms. Along a West-East transect of 4000 km from New Caledonia to the French Polynesia, 15 short-duration stations (SD-1 to SD-15, 8 hours each) dedicated to a large-scale description, and three long-duration stations (LD-A to LD-C, 5days each), respectively positioned (1) in offshore northern waters of New Caledonia, (2) near Niue Island, and (3) in the subtropical Pacific gyre near the Cook Islands, were sampled with a Bongo Net with 120 μm mesh size net for quantifying mesozooplankton abundance, biomass, community taxonomy and size structure, and size fractionated content of δ15N. Subsequently, the contribution of Diazotroph Derived Nitrogen (DDN (%) to zooplankton δ15N (ZDDN) values at each station was calculated, as well as an estimation of zooplankton carbon demand and grazing impact and of zooplankton excretion rates. The mesozooplankton community showed a general decreasing trend in abundance and biomass from West to East, with a clear drop in the ultra-oligotrophic waters of the subtropical Pacific gyre (LD-C, SD-14 and SD-15). Higher abundance and biomass corresponded to higher primary production of more or less ephemeral blooms linked to complex mesoscale circulation in the Coral Sea and between the longitudes 170-180 °W. Copepods were the most abundant group (68 to 86 % of total abundance), slightly

  3. Anfípodos hiperídeos (Crustacea: Peracarida del Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, Pacífico Tropical Oriental Hyperiid amphipods (Crustacea: Peracarida of the Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebeca Gasca

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Los anfípodos hiperídeos son uno de los grupos de crustáceos pelágicos más frecuentemente encontrados y están entre los más diversos del zooplancton marino. Para determinar la composición de especies de anfípodos hipéridos que habitan las aguas alrededor del Parque Nacional Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, se analizaron 12 muestras de zooplancton. Estas fueron recolectadas mediante arrastres verticales y horizontales con una red de plancton con mallas de 200 y 500 micras y 49cm de diámetro en la boca. Se encontró un total de 22 especies pertenecientes a 17 géneros y 12 familias. Se presenta el listado faunístico de este grupo junto con datos acerca de su taxonomía, su distribución en el área de estudio y su distribución general. La mayor parte de las especies registradas en esta zona han sido reportadas en estudios previos referentes a la región del Pacífico Tropical Oriental y en particular en aguas oceánicas de Costa Rica. Encontramos ocho especies que representan nuevos registros para aguas del Pacífico costarricense, lo que incrementa en un 26% (a 38 el número de especies de hipéridos conocidos en Costa Rica. Las especies más frecuentes fueron Lestrigonus shoemakeri, L. bengalensis, Hyperioides sibaginis y Phronimosis spinifera. Se espera que muestreos adicionales tanto de aguas superficiales como profundas expandan el conocimiento de la diversidad del grupo en esta área protegida.Hyperiid amphipods are one of the most frequently encountered pelagic crustaceans and among the most diverse marine zooplankters. To determine the species composition of the hyperiid amphipods dwelling in the waters around Isla del Coco National Park, Pacific Costa Rica, we analyzad 12 zooplankton samples, collected by vertical and horizontals tows with plankton net with mesh sizes of 200 and 500 microns and 49cm mouth diameter. We recorded a total of 22 species belonging to 17 genera and 12 families. A faunistic list of this group is provided

  4. Tree Species Abundance Predictions in a Tropical Agricultural Landscape with a Supervised Classification Model and Imbalanced Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah J. Graves

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Mapping species through classification of imaging spectroscopy data is facilitating research to understand tree species distributions at increasingly greater spatial scales. Classification requires a dataset of field observations matched to the image, which will often reflect natural species distributions, resulting in an imbalanced dataset with many samples for common species and few samples for less common species. Despite the high prevalence of imbalanced datasets in multiclass species predictions, the effect on species prediction accuracy and landscape species abundance has not yet been quantified. First, we trained and assessed the accuracy of a support vector machine (SVM model with a highly imbalanced dataset of 20 tropical species and one mixed-species class of 24 species identified in a hyperspectral image mosaic (350–2500 nm of Panamanian farmland and secondary forest fragments. The model, with an overall accuracy of 62% ± 2.3% and F-score of 59% ± 2.7%, was applied to the full image mosaic (23,000 ha at a 2-m resolution to produce a species prediction map, which suggested that this tropical agricultural landscape is more diverse than what has been presented in field-based studies. Second, we quantified the effect of class imbalance on model accuracy. Model assessment showed a trend where species with more samples were consistently over predicted while species with fewer samples were under predicted. Standardizing sample size reduced model accuracy, but also reduced the level of species over- and under-prediction. This study advances operational species mapping of diverse tropical landscapes by detailing the effect of imbalanced data on classification accuracy and providing estimates of tree species abundance in an agricultural landscape. Species maps using data and methods presented here can be used in landscape analyses of species distributions to understand human or environmental effects, in addition to focusing conservation

  5. Local predation pressure predicts the strength of mobbing responses in tropical birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis SANDOVAL, David R. WILSON

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Many birds join cooperative mobbing aggregations and collectively harass predators. Individuals participating in these ephemeral associations benefit by deterring the predator, but also incur energetic costs and increased risk of predation. Explaining the evolution of mobbing is challenging because individuals could prevail by selfishly seeking safety while allowing others to mob. An important step in understanding the evolution of mobbing is to identify factors affecting its expression. The ecological constraints model suggests that animals are more likely to cooperate under adverse environmental conditions, such as when local predation pressure is high. We tested this prediction by comparing the mobbing responses of several species of birds to the local abundance of their primary predator, the ferruginous pygmy-owl Glaucidium brasilianum. We used acoustic playback to elicit mobbing responses in environments where owls were common, uncommon, or rare. Stimuli were either the song of a ferruginous pygmy-owl or the mobbing calls of three of the owl’s common prey species. During each playback, we characterized mobbing responses by noting the number of species and individuals that approached the loudspeaker, as well as the closest approach by any bird. Mobbing responses to both stimuli were strong in locations where Ferruginous Pygmy-owls were common, intermediate where owls were uncommon, and weak where they were rare. This pattern persisted even after controlling for differences in species richness and composition among the three environments. Results support the ecological constraints model and provide strong evidence that intense predation pressure increases the expression of cooperative mobbing in tropical birds [Current Zoology 58 (5: 781-790, 2012].

  6. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  7. Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtzel, Jennifer B.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Bajo, Petra; Hellstrom, John C.; Troitzsch, Ulrike; Heslop, David

    2018-06-01

    Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from δ18O measurements in an aragonite-calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes 18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and 18O depletion during the Bølling-Allerød, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem δ18O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the

  8. Ecological patterns, distribution and population structure of Prionace glauca (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhinidae) in the tropical-subtropical transition zone of the north-eastern Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vögler, Rodolfo; Beier, Emilio; Ortega-García, Sofía; Santana-Hernández, Heriberto; Valdez-Flores, J Javier

    2012-02-01

    Regional ecological patterns, distribution and population structure of Prionace glauca were analyzed based on samples collected on-board two long-line fleets operating in oceanic waters (1994-96/2000-02) and in coastal oceanic waters (2003-2009) of the eastern tropical Pacific off México. Generalized additive models were applied to catch per unit of effort data to evaluate the effect of spatial, temporal and environmental factors on the horizontal distribution of the life stages (juvenile, adult) and the sexes at the estimated depth of catch. The presence of breeding areas was explored. The population structure was characterized by the presence of juveniles' aggregations and pregnant females towards coastal waters and the presence of adult males' aggregations towards oceanic waters. The species exhibited horizontal segregation by sex-size and vertical segregation by sex. Distribution of the sex-size groups at oceanic waters was seasonally affected by the latitude; however, at coastal oceanic waters mainly females were influenced by the longitude. Latitudinal changes on the horizontal distribution were coupled to the seasonal forward and backward of water masses through the study area. Adult males showed positive relationship with high temperatures and high-salinities waters (17.0°-20.0 °C; 34.2-34.4) although they were also detected in low-salinities waters. The distribution of juvenile males mainly occurred beyond low temperatures and low-salinities waters (14.0°-15.0 °C; 33.6-34.1), suggesting a wide tolerance of adult males to explore subartic and subtropical waters. At oceanic areas, adult females were aggregated towards latitudes ecological key region to the reproductive cycle of P. glauca. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Prediction of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean using WRF model: sensitivity to scatterometer winds, ATOVS and ATMS radiances

    KAUST Repository

    Dodla, Venkata B.

    2016-05-03

    Tropical cyclone prediction, in terms of intensification and movement, is important for disaster management and mitigation. Hitherto, research studies were focused on this issue that lead to improvement in numerical models, initial data with data assimilation, physical parameterizations and application of ensemble prediction. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the state-of-art model for cyclone prediction. In the present study, prediction of tropical cyclone (Phailin, 2013) that formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with and without data assimilation using WRF model has been made to assess impacts of data assimilation. WRF model was designed to have nested two domains of 15 and 5 km resolutions. In the present study, numerical experiments are made without and with the assimilation of scatterometer winds, and radiances from ATOVS and ATMS. The model performance was assessed in respect to the movement and intensification of cyclone. ATOVS data assimilation experiment had produced the best prediction with least errors less than 100 km up to 60 hours and producing pre-deepening and deepening periods accurately. The Control and SCAT wind assimilation experiments have shown good track but the errors were 150-200 km and gradual deepening from the beginning itself instead of sudden deepening.

  10. Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses-implications for REDD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumpenberger, Marlies; Vohland, Katrin; Heyder, Ursula; Poulter, Benjamin; Rammig, Anja; Popp, Alexander; Cramer, Wolfgang; Macey, Kirsten

    2010-01-01

    Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD-reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.

  11. Climate Change in the Pacific Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamnett, Michael P.

    Climate change have been a major concern among Pacific Islanders since the late 1990s. During that period, Time Magazine featured a cover story that read: Say Goodbye to the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu from sea level rise. Since that time, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, UN and government agencies and academic researchers have been assessing the impacts of long-term climate change and seasonal to inter-annual climate variability on the Pacific Islands. The consensus is that long-term climate change will result in more extreme weather and tidal events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and salt water inundation. Extreme weather events already occur in the Pacific Islands and they are patterned. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events impact rainfall, tropical cyclone and tidal patterns. In 2000, the first National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change concluded that long-term climate change will result in more El Niño events or a more El Niño like climate every year. The bad news is that will mean more natural disasters. The good news is that El Niño events can be predicted and people can prepare for them. The reallly bad news is that some Pacific Islands are already becoming uninhabitable because of erosion of land or the loss of fresh water from droughts and salt water intrusion. Many of the most vulnerable countries already overseas populations in New Zealand, the US, or larger Pacific Island countries. For some Pacific Islander abandoning their home countries will be their only option.

  12. Elasmobranchs observed in deepwaters (45-330m at Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica (Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Cortés

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Isla del Coco is an oceanic island 500km off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. It is a National Park and its marine fauna has been relatively well protected. The island is famous for its elasmobranch (sharks, rays and skates sightings in shallow waters. Here we present a catalogue of the deepwater elasmobranchs observed with the DeepSee submersible. Five species of sharks, six species of skates and one ray have been observed between 45 and 330m depth. Triaenodon obesus, the white tip reef shark, was commonly observed between 80 and 301m, but only in the afternoons. Sphyrna lewini, the scalloped hammerhead shark, was observed as deep a 303m, but commonly between 45 and 90m, and close to the island. Odontaspis ferox, the smalltooth sand tiger shark, was observed between 82 and 316m. Echinorhinus cookei, the prickly shark, was observed between 91 and 320m. Rhincodon typus, the whale shark, was observed only close to the island, between 77 and 80m. Taeniura meyeni, the marbled ray, was observed only close to the island, between 45 and 90m. A Dasyatis sp., similar to the the diamond stingray, was observed only once close to the island at 60m; this is the first report of this genus at Isla del Coco National Park. Manta birostris, the giant manta, was only observed close to the island at 90m. Mobula tarapacana, the sicklefin devil ray, was observed between 60 and 326m, extending its maximum depth almost 10 times what has been reported. Aetobatus narinari, the spotted eagle ray, was observed only close to the island between 60 and 82m. Torpedo peruana, the Peruvian torpedo ray, was observed only once at 313m, and is the first record of this species from Isla del Coco National Park.La Isla del Coco es una isla oceánica a 500km de la costa Pacífica de Costa Rica. Es un Parque Nacional donde la fauna marina ha estado relativamente bien protegida. La isla es famosa por los elasmobranquios (tiburones y rayas en aguas poco profundas. Aquí presentamos un cat

  13. Reconstruction of deglacial sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific from selective analysis of a fossil coral

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allison, N.; Finch, A.A.; Tudhope, A.W.; Newville, M.; Sutton, S.R.; Ellam, R.M. (St Andrews); (Edinburgh); (Scottish); (UC); (St Andrews)

    2010-07-13

    The Sr/Ca of coral skeletons demonstrates potential as an indicator of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the glacial-interglacial SST ranges predicted from Sr/Ca of fossil corals are usually higher than from other marine proxies. We observed infilling of secondary aragonite, characterized by high Sr/Ca ratios, along intraskeletal pores of a fossil coral from Papua New Guinea that grew during the penultimate deglaciation (130 {+-} 2 ka). Selective microanalysis of unaltered areas of the fossil coral indicates that SSTs at {approx}130 ka were {le} 1 C cooler than at present in contrast with bulk measurements (combining infilled and unaltered areas) which indicate a difference of 6-7 C. The analysis of unaltered areas of fossil skeletons by microprobe techniques may offer a route to more accurate reconstruction of past SSTs.

  14. Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

  15. Pathways, mechanisms and predictability of vegetation change during tropical dry forest succession

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Meave, J.; Poorter, L.; Pérez- García, E.A.; Bongers, F.

    2010-01-01

    The development of forest succession theory has been based on studies in temperate and tropical wet forests. As rates and pathways of succession vary with the environment, advances in successional theory and study approaches are challenged by controversies derived from such variation and by the

  16. Does functional trait diversity predict aboveground biomass and productivity of tropical forests? Testing three alternative hypotheses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finegan, B.; Pena Claros, M.; Silva de Oliveira, A.; Ascarrunz, N.; Bret-Harte, M.S.; Carreño Rocabado, I.G.; Casanoves, F.; Diaz, S.; Eguiguren Velepucha, P.; Fernandez, F.; Licona, J.C.; Lorenzo, L.; Salgado Negret, B.; Vaz, M.; Poorter, L.

    2014-01-01

    1. Tropical forests are globally important, but it is not clear whether biodiversity enhances carbon storage and sequestration in them. We tested this relationship focusing on components of functional trait biodiversity as predictors. 2. Data are presented for three rain forests in Bolivia, Brazil

  17. Does functional trait diversity predict aboveground biomass and productivity of tropical forests? Testing three alternative hypotheses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finegan, B.; Peña Claros, M.; Oliviera, de A.; Alarcón, A.; Ascarrunz, N.; Bret-Harte, M.S.; Carreño-Rocabado, G.; Casanoves, F.; Díaz, S.; Eguiguren Velepucha, P.; Fernandez, F.; Licona, J.C.; Lorenzo, L.; Salgado Negret, B.; Vaz, M.; Poorter, L.

    2015-01-01

    Tropical forests are globally important, but it is not clear whether biodiversity enhances carbon storage and sequestration in them. We tested this relationship focusing on components of functional trait biodiversity as predictors. Data are presented for three rain forests in Bolivia, Brazil and

  18. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

    2017-09-01

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

  19. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Gong, Zhiqiang

    2017-04-05

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts\\' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM\\'s summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

  20. A Record of the Eastern Tropical Pacific of Water Column Structure Reorganization during the Rapid Climate Changes of Marine Isotope Stage 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendy, I. L.

    2007-05-01

    Little is known about the details of paleoceanographic changes in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) during marine isotope stage 3. Here we present a high resolution record of climate change from core ME0005A 10JC (15.7°N; 95.3°E, 1040 m water depth) collected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec spanning 48 to 38 Ka. Planktonic and benthic stable isotope records have been generated alongside Corg, carbonate, δ15N and trace metal concentrations of bulk sediments. Seasonal intense wind forced upwelling produces high Corg flux in the Gulf. In winter, high atmospheric pressures in the Gulf of Mexico and low pressures in the ETP (associated with the ITCZ) create a strong pressure gradient generally blocked by high mountains along the isthmus. A gap near the Gulf of Tehuantepec allows air to spill over into the Pacific creating a hurricane force wind (the Tehuanos) that pushes water off the broad shelf, producing non-Ekman upwelling. Corg production increases from 48 to 38 Ka in association with increasing nitrate utilization as indicated by increasing δ15N values. Conservative trace metals increase relative to non-conservative between 45 and 43 Ka simultaneously with shift to more positive benthic δ13C, while non-conservative (nutrient- like) metals increase after 43 Ka. A prominent short ~1‰ negative shift in benthic δ18O occurs at 44.5 Ka with a 0.5‰ positive step occurring at 43.5 Ka. Globigerina ruber records δ18O values of ~-1‰ between 46 and 45 Ka, decreasing by ~1‰ at 45 Ka, while δ13C values vary between 0 and 1‰. Globigerina bulloides records δ18O values of ~0.5‰ and δ13C of 1‰ between 46 and 45 Ka, but records δ18O values of ~-1‰ and δ13C of -1‰ between 44 and 42 Ka. G. bulloides is associated with winter upwelling in the region, while G. ruber is a surface dweller associated with the Costa Rica Current that enters the Gulf in summer. Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and Globorotalia menardii generally record δ18O values of 0.5 to 0‰ and δ13

  1. Production, partitioning and stoichiometry of organic matter under variable nutrient supply during mesocosm experiments in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. S. Franz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Oxygen-deficient waters in the ocean, generally referred to as oxygen minimum zones (OMZ, are expected to expand as a consequence of global climate change. Poor oxygenation is promoting microbial loss of inorganic nitrogen (N and increasing release of sediment-bound phosphate (P into the water column. These intermediate water masses, nutrient-loaded but with an N deficit relative to the canonical N:P Redfield ratio of 16:1, are transported via coastal upwelling into the euphotic zone. To test the impact of nutrient supply and nutrient stoichiometry on production, partitioning and elemental composition of dissolved (DOC, DON, DOP and particulate (POC, PON, POP organic matter, three nutrient enrichment experiments were conducted with natural microbial communities in shipboard mesocosms, during research cruises in the tropical waters of the southeast Pacific and the northeast Atlantic. Maximum accumulation of POC and PON was observed under high N supply conditions, indicating that primary production was controlled by N availability. The stoichiometry of microbial biomass was unaffected by nutrient N:P supply during exponential growth under nutrient saturation, while it was highly variable under conditions of nutrient limitation and closely correlated to the N:P supply ratio, although PON:POP of accumulated biomass generally exceeded the supply ratio. Microbial N:P composition was constrained by a general lower limit of 5:1. Channelling of assimilated P into DOP appears to be the mechanism responsible for the consistent offset of cellular stoichiometry relative to inorganic nutrient supply and nutrient drawdown, as DOP build-up was observed to intensify under decreasing N:P supply. Low nutrient N:P conditions in coastal upwelling areas overlying O2-deficient waters seem to represent a net source for DOP, which may stimulate growth of diazotrophic phytoplankton. These results demonstrate that microbial nutrient assimilation and

  2. Aerobic ammonium oxidation in the oxycline and oxygen minimum zone of the eastern tropical South Pacific off northern Chile (˜20°S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Verónica; Farías, Laura

    2009-07-01

    Aerobic NH 4+ oxidation rates were measured along the strong oxygen gradient associated with the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the eastern tropical South Pacific off northern Chile (˜20°S) during 2000, 2003, and 2004. This process was examined by comparing NH 4+ rates of change during dark incubations, with and without the addition of allylthiourea, a classical inhibitor of the ammonia monooxygenase enzyme of ammonium-oxidizing bacteria. The contribution of aerobic NH 4+ oxidation in dark carbon fixation and NO 2- rates of change were also explored. Thirteen samples were retrieved from the oxycline (252 to ⩽5 μM O 2; 15 to ˜65 m depth) and three from the oxygen minimum core (⩽5 μM O 2; 100-200 m depth). Aerobic NH 4+ oxidation rates were mainly detected in the upper part (15-30 m depth) of the oxycline, with rates ranging from 0.16 to 0.79 μM d -1, but not towards the oxycline base (40-65 m depth). In the oxygen minimum core, aerobic NH 4+ oxidation was in the upper range and higher than in the upper part of the oxycline (0.70 and 1.0 μM d -1). Carbon fixation rates through aerobic NH 4+ oxidation ranged from 0.18 to 0.43 μg C L -1 d -1 and contributed between 33% and 57% of the total dark carbon fixation, mainly towards the oxycline base and, in a single experiment, in the upper part of the oxycline. NO 2- consumption was high (up to 10 μM d -1) towards the oxycline base and OMZ core, but was significantly reduced in experiments amended with allylthiourea, indicating that aerobic NH 4+ oxidation could contribute between 8% and 76% of NO 2- production, which in turn could be available for denitrifiers. Overall, these results support the important role of aerobic NH 4+ oxidizers in the nitrogen and carbon cycling in the OMZ and at its upper boundary.

  3. Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agudelo, P.A.; Hoyos, C.D.; Webster, P.J.; Curry, J.A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-05-15

    The extended-range forecast skill of the ECMWF operational forecast model is evaluated during tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) events in the Indo-West Pacific warm pool. The experiment consists of ensemble extended serial forecasts including winter and summer ISO cases. The forecasts are compared with the ERA-40 analyses. The analysis focuses on understanding the origin of forecast errors by studying the vertical structure of relevant dynamical and moist convective features associated with the ISO. The useful forecast time scale for circulation anomalies is in average 13 days during winter compared to 7-8 days during summer. The forecast skill is not stationary and presents evidence of a flow-dependent nature, with states of the coupled system corresponding to long-lived convective envelopes associated with the ISO for which the skill is always low regardless of the starting date of the forecast. The model is not able to forecast skillfully the generation of specific humidity anomalies and results indicate that the convective processes in the model are associated with the erosion of the ISO forecast skill in the model. Circulation-associated anomalies are forecast better than moist convective associated anomalies. The model tends to generate a more stable atmosphere, limiting the model's capability to reproduce deep convective events, resulting in smaller humidity and circulation anomalies in the forecasts compared to those in ERA-40. (orig.)

  4. Dynamics and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Structure and Intensity Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones, including genesis, intensity change, and extratropical transition. A secondary objective is to understand... storm -centered assimilation algorithm. Basic research in Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the...COMPLETED For the four storms consider (Nuri, Jangmi, Sinlaku, and Hagupit), an 80-member EnKF has been cycled on observations (surface, rawinsondes, GPS

  5. Does functional trait diversity predict aboveground biomass and productivity of tropical forests? Testing three alternative hypotheses

    OpenAIRE

    Finegan, B.; Pena Claros, M.; Silva de Oliveira, A.; Ascarrunz, N.; Bret-Harte, M.S.; Carreño Rocabado, I.G.; Casanoves, F.; Diaz, S.; Eguiguren Velepucha, P.; Fernandez, F.; Licona, J.C.; Lorenzo, L.; Salgado Negret, B.; Vaz, M.; Poorter, L.

    2014-01-01

    1. Tropical forests are globally important, but it is not clear whether biodiversity enhances carbon storage and sequestration in them. We tested this relationship focusing on components of functional trait biodiversity as predictors. 2. Data are presented for three rain forests in Bolivia, Brazil and Costa Rica. Initial above-ground biomass and biomass increments of survivors, recruits and survivors + recruits (total) were estimated for trees ≥10 cm d.b.h. in 62 and 21 1.0-ha plots, respecti...

  6. Mesoscale cyclogenesis over the western north Pacific Ocean during TPARC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher A. Davis

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Three cases of mesoscale marine cyclogenesis over the subtropics of the Western Pacific Ocean are investigated. Each case occurred during the THORPEX Pacific Asia Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS-08 field phases in 2008. Each cyclone developed from remnants of disturbances that earlier showed potential for tropical cyclogenesis within the tropics. Two of the cyclones produced gale-force surface winds, and one, designated as a tropical cyclone, resulted in a significant coastal storm over eastern Japan. Development was initiated by a burst of organized mesoscale convection that consolidated and intensified the surface cyclonic circulation over a period of 12–24 h. Upper-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies modulated the vertical wind shear that, in turn, influenced the periods of cyclone intensification and weakening. Weak baroclinicity associated with vertical shear was also deemed important in organizing mesoscale ascent and the convection outbreaks. The remnant tropical disturbances contributed exceptional water vapour content to higher latitudes that led to strong diabatic heating, and the tropical remnants contributed vorticity that was the seed of the development in the subtropics. Predictability of these events more than three days in advance appears to be minimal.

  7. Diameter distribution in a Brazilian tropical dry forest domain: predictions for the stand and species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Robson B DE; Bufalino, Lina; Alves, Francisco T; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

    2017-01-01

    Currently, there is a lack of studies on the correct utilization of continuous distributions for dry tropical forests. Therefore, this work aims to investigate the diameter structure of a brazilian tropical dry forest and to select suitable continuous distributions by means of statistic tools for the stand and the main species. Two subsets were randomly selected from 40 plots. Diameter at base height was obtained. The following functions were tested: log-normal; gamma; Weibull 2P and Burr. The best fits were selected by Akaike's information validation criterion. Overall, the diameter distribution of the dry tropical forest was better described by negative exponential curves and positive skewness. The forest studied showed diameter distributions with decreasing probability for larger trees. This behavior was observed for both the main species and the stand. The generalization of the function fitted for the main species show that the development of individual models is needed. The Burr function showed good flexibility to describe the diameter structure of the stand and the behavior of Mimosa ophthalmocentra and Bauhinia cheilantha species. For Poincianella bracteosa, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodum urundeuva better fitting was obtained with the log-normal function.

  8. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  9. Using Genome-Wide SNPs to Detect Structure in High-Diversity and Low-Divergence Populations of Severely Impacted Eastern Tropical Pacific Spinner (Stenella longirostris And Pantropical Spotted Dolphins (S. attenuata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Steven Leslie

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Millions of spinner (Stenella longirostris and pantropical spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata died since the 1960’s as bycatch in tuna nets in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Despite three decades of protection, they show little-to-no sign of recovery (although recent fisheries-independent abundance estimates are not available. In efforts to establish biologically meaningful management boundaries for recovery, endemic subspecies and multiple stocks have been proposed. However, genetic differentiation among most of these units has been difficult to identify, possibly due to low statistical power stemming from large historical abundances, ongoing gene flow, and recent divergence. We tested for genetic structure at multiple hierarchical levels by analyzing the largest dataset to date brought to bear on these questions. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs were collected from nuclear DNA regions associated with the restriction enzyme site PstI from 72 spinner dolphins and 58 pantropical spotted dolphins using genotype-by-sequencing (GBS. Our results support the current subspecies for both species and indicate stock-level separation for Tres Marias spinner dolphins and the two offshore pantropical spotted dolphin stocks in this area. Although bycatch has been reduced a small fraction of pre-protection levels, incidental mortality continues to impact these populations. Our results are important for the ongoing management and recovery of these highly-impacted pelagic dolphins in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

  10. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2017-10-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  11. Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, James B.; Storlazzi, Curt; Erikson, Li; Hegermiller, Christie

    2016-01-01

    Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

  12. An assessment of the ECMWF tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting system and its use for insurance loss predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aemisegger, F.; Martius, O.; Wüest, M.

    2010-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are amongst the most impressive and destructive weather systems of Earth's atmosphere. The costs related to such intense natural disasters have been rising in recent years and may potentially continue to increase in the near future due to changes in magnitude, timing, duration or location of tropical storms. This is a challenging situation for numerical weather prediction, which should provide a decision basis for short term protective measures through high quality medium range forecasts on the one hand. On the other hand, the insurance system bears great responsibility in elaborating proactive plans in order to face these extreme events that individuals cannot manage independently. Real-time prediction and early warning systems are needed in the insurance sector in order to face an imminent hazard and minimise losses. Early loss estimates are important in order to allocate capital and to communicate to investors. The ECMWF TC identification algorithm delivers information on the track and intensity of storms based on the ensemble forecasting system. This provides a physically based framework to assess the uncertainty in the forecast of a specific event. The performance of the ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts is evaluated in terms of cyclone intensity and location in this study and the value of such a physically-based quantification of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast for the estimation of insurance losses is assessed. An evaluation of track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the years 2005 to 2009 is carried out. Various effects are studied like the differences in forecasts over land or sea, as well as links between storm intensity and forecast error statistics. The value of the ECMWF TC forecasting system for the global re-insurer Swiss Re was assessed by performing insurance loss predictions using their in-house loss model for several case studies of particularly devastating events. The generally known

  13. Prediction of the fate of radioactive material in the South Pacific Ocean using a global high-resolution ocean model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazell, Douglas R.; England, Matthew H.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate the release of radioactive contaminants from Moruroa Atoll in a global high-resolution off-line model. The spread of tracer is studied in a series of simulations with varying release depths and time-scales, and into ocean velocity fields corresponding to long-term annual mean, seasonal, and interannually varying scenarios. In the instantaneous surface release scenarios we find that the incorporation of a seasonal cycle greatly influences tracer advection, with maximum concentrations still found within the French Polynesia region after 10 years. In contrast, the maximum trace is located in the southeast Pacific when long-term annual mean fields are used. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal cycle in models of pollution dispersion on large scales. We further find that during an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event reduced currents in the region of Moruroa Atoll result in increased concentrations of radioactive material in French Polynesia, as direct flushing from the source is reduced. In terms of the sensitivity to tracer release time-rates, we find that a gradual input results in maximum concentrations in the near vicinity of French Polynesia. This contrasts the instantaneous-release scenarios, which see maximum concentrations and tracer spread across much of the South Pacific Ocean. For example, in as little as seven years radioactive contamination can reach the east coast of Australia diluted by only a factor of 1000 of the initial concentration. A comparison of results is made with previous studies. Overall, we find much higher concentrations of radionuclides in the South Pacific than has previously been predicted using coarser-resolution models

  14. Prediction Method for Rain Rate and Rain Propagation Attenuation for K-Band Satellite Communications Links in Tropical Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baso Maruddani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction method using hidden Markov model (HMM for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation for K-band satellite communication link at tropical area. As is well known, the K-band frequency is susceptible of being affected by atmospheric condition, especially in rainy condition. The wavelength of K-band frequency which approaches to the size of rain droplet causes the signal strength is easily attenuated and absorbed by the rain droplet. In order to keep the quality of system performance for K-band satellite communication link, therefore a special attention has to be paid for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation. Thus, a prediction method for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation based on HMM is developed to process the measurement data. The measured and predicted data are then compared with the ITU-R recommendation. From the result, it is shown that the measured and predicted data show similarity with the model of ITU-R P.837-5 recommendation for rain rate and the model of ITU-R P.618-10 recommendation for rain propagation attenuation. Meanwhile, statistical data for measured and predicted data such as fade duration and interfade duration have insignificant discrepancy with the model of ITU-R P.1623-1 recommendation.

  15. Shallow CTD profiles collected from NOAA Ship Hi'ialakai, NOAA Ship Townsend Cromwell and NOAA Ship Oscar Elton Sette, near tropical pacific islands, atolls and shoals of the NE Pacific from 2000 to 2010 (NODC Accession 0039382)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Ecosystem Division of the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, part of the National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

  16. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  17. Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sun-Seon; Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Schemm, Jae Kyung E. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-03-15

    Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981-2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models' multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead-lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and

  18. Predicting of biomass in Brazilian tropical dry forest: a statistical evaluation of generic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROBSON B. DE LIMA

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Dry tropical forests are a key component in the global carbon cycle and their biomass estimates depend almost exclusively of fitted equations for multi-species or individual species data. Therefore, a systematic evaluation of statistical models through validation of estimates of aboveground biomass stocks is justifiable. In this study was analyzed the capacity of generic and specific equations obtained from different locations in Mexico and Brazil, to estimate aboveground biomass at multi-species levels and for four different species. Generic equations developed in Mexico and Brazil performed better in estimating tree biomass for multi-species data. For Poincianella bracteosa and Mimosa ophthalmocentra, only the Sampaio and Silva (2005 generic equation was the most recommended. These equations indicate lower tendency and lower bias, and biomass estimates for these equations are similar. For the species Mimosa tenuiflora, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and for the genus Croton the specific regional equations are more recommended, although the generic equation of Sampaio and Silva (2005 is not discarded for biomass estimates. Models considering gender, families, successional groups, climatic variables and wood specific gravity should be adjusted, tested and the resulting equations should be validated at both local and regional levels as well as on the scales of tropics with dry forest dominance.

  19. Predicting of biomass in Brazilian tropical dry forest: a statistical evaluation of generic equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Robson B DE; Alves, Francisco T; Oliveira, Cinthia P DE; Silva, José A A DA; Ferreira, Rinaldo L C

    2017-01-01

    Dry tropical forests are a key component in the global carbon cycle and their biomass estimates depend almost exclusively of fitted equations for multi-species or individual species data. Therefore, a systematic evaluation of statistical models through validation of estimates of aboveground biomass stocks is justifiable. In this study was analyzed the capacity of generic and specific equations obtained from different locations in Mexico and Brazil, to estimate aboveground biomass at multi-species levels and for four different species. Generic equations developed in Mexico and Brazil performed better in estimating tree biomass for multi-species data. For Poincianella bracteosa and Mimosa ophthalmocentra, only the Sampaio and Silva (2005) generic equation was the most recommended. These equations indicate lower tendency and lower bias, and biomass estimates for these equations are similar. For the species Mimosa tenuiflora, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and for the genus Croton the specific regional equations are more recommended, although the generic equation of Sampaio and Silva (2005) is not discarded for biomass estimates. Models considering gender, families, successional groups, climatic variables and wood specific gravity should be adjusted, tested and the resulting equations should be validated at both local and regional levels as well as on the scales of tropics with dry forest dominance.

  20. Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

    2018-01-01

    The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

  1. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  2. NOAA/NMFS/CRED Deep CTD profiles from 15 cruises near islands, atolls and shoals in the central tropical Pacific 1999-2012 (NODC Accession 0115299)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Coral Reef Ecosystem Division of the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, part of the National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

  3. Physical profile data collected during the calendar year 2003 for the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environment Lab (NODC Accession 0001364)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Physical profile data were collected using meteorological sensors and CTD casts in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from NOAA Ship KA'IMIMOANA and NOAA Ship RONALD H....

  4. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2008-12-01

    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

  5. The importance of vegetation change in the prediction of future tropical cyclone flood statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irish, J. L.; Resio, D.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Weiss, R.

    2015-12-01

    Global sea level rise is a near certainty over the next century (e.g., Stocker et al. 2013 [IPCC] and references therein). With sea level rise, coastal topography and land cover (hereafter "landscape") is expected to change and tropical cyclone flood hazard is expected to accelerate (e.g., Irish et al. 2010 [Ocean Eng], Woodruff et al. 2013 [Nature], Bilskie et al. 2014 [Geophys Res Lett], Ferreira et al. 2014 [Coast Eng], Passeri et al. 2015 [Nat Hazards]). Yet, the relative importance of sea-level rise induced landscape change on future tropical cyclone flood hazard assessment is not known. In this paper, idealized scenarios are used to evaluate the relative impact of one class of landscape change on future tropical cyclone extreme-value statistics in back-barrier regions: sea level rise induced vegetation migration and loss. The joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) (Resio et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) with idealized surge response functions (e.g., Irish et al. 2009 [Nat Hazards]) is used to quantify the present-day and future flood hazard under various sea level rise scenarios. Results are evaluated in terms of their impact on the flood statistics (a) when projected flood elevations are included directly in the JPM analysis (Figure 1) and (b) when represented as additional uncertainty within the JPM integral (Resio et al. 2013 [Nat Hazards]), i.e., as random error. Findings are expected to aid in determining the level of effort required to reasonably account for future landscape change in hazard assessments, namely in determining when such processes are sufficiently captured by added uncertainty and when sea level rise induced vegetation changes must be considered dynamically, via detailed modeling initiatives. Acknowledgements: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CMMI-1206271 and by the National Sea Grant College Program of the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and

  6. Tropical Cyclone Report, 1988

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Cmdr. David Gray; National Weather Service 5. Cooperation with the Naval Environmental Pacific Region for the startup of 24-hour operatiois at Ponape...0.1 27.7 TOTAL CASES 3 1 1 4 12 27 54 56 30 25 7 1 221 * (GRAY, 1979) TABLE 4-3 ANNUAL VARIATION C SOTR MUSHER TROPICAL CYCLOUZ BY O(EN BASIN SOUTH

  7. A comparative analysis of cardiovascular disease risk profiles of five Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice: PREDICT CVD-13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grey, Corina; Wells, Sue; Riddell, Tania; Pylypchuk, Romana; Marshall, Roger; Drury, Paul; Elley, Raina; Ameratunga, Shanthi; Gentles, Dudley; Erick-Peletiy, Stephanie; Bell, Fionna; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

    2010-11-05

    Data on the cardiovascular disease risk profiles of Pacific peoples in New Zealand is usually aggregated and treated as a single entity. Little is known about the comparability or otherwise of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk between different Pacific groups. To compare CVD risk profiles for the main Pacific ethnic groups assessed in New Zealand primary care practice to determine if it is reasonable to aggregate these data, or if significant differences exist. A web-based clinical decision support system for CVD risk assessment and management (PREDICT) has been implemented in primary care practices in nine PHOs throughout Auckland and Northland since 2002, covering approximately 65% of the population of these regions. Between 2002 and January 2009, baseline CVD risk assessments were carried out on 11,642 patients aged 35-74 years identifying with one or more Pacific ethnic groups (4933 Samoans, 1724 Tongans, 1366 Cook Island Maori, 880 Niueans, 1341 Fijians and 1398 people identified as Other Pacific or Pacific Not Further Defined). Fijians were subsequently excluded from the analyses because of a probable misclassification error that appears to combine Fijian Indians with ethnic Fijians. Prevalences of smoking, diabetes and prior history of CVD, as well as mean total cholesterol/HDL ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and Framingham 5-year CVD risk were calculated for each Pacific group. Age-adjusted risk ratios and mean differences stratified by gender were calculated using Samoans as the reference group. Cook Island women were almost 60% more likely to smoke than Samoan women. While Tongan men had the highest proportion of smoking (29%) among Pacific men, Tongan women had the lowest smoking proportion (10%) among Pacific women. Tongan women and Niuean men and women had a higher burden of diabetes than other Pacific ethnic groups, which were 20-30% higher than their Samoan counterparts. Niuean men and women had lower blood pressure levels than all

  8. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  9. A Probabilistic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wallace, Kenneth A

    2008-01-01

    Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) are set at DoD installations in the Western Pacific to convey the risk associated with the onset of destructive winds from approaching tropical cyclones...

  10. Trait-mediated assembly processes predict successional changes in community diversity of tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R; Uriarte, María; Boukili, Vanessa K; Chazdon, Robin L

    2014-04-15

    Interspecific differences in relative fitness can cause local dominance by a single species. However, stabilizing interspecific niche differences can promote local diversity. Understanding these mechanisms requires that we simultaneously quantify their effects on demography and link these effects to community dynamics. Successional forests are ideal systems for testing assembly theory because they exhibit rapid community assembly. Here, we leverage functional trait and long-term demographic data to build spatially explicit models of successional community dynamics of lowland rainforests in Costa Rica. First, we ask what the effects and relative importance of four trait-mediated community assembly processes are on tree survival, a major component of fitness. We model trait correlations with relative fitness differences that are both density-independent and -dependent in addition to trait correlations with stabilizing niche differences. Second, we ask how the relative importance of these trait-mediated processes relates to successional changes in functional diversity. Tree dynamics were more strongly influenced by trait-related interspecific variation in average survival than trait-related responses to neighbors, with wood specific gravity (WSG) positively correlated with greater survival. Our findings also suggest that competition was mediated by stabilizing niche differences associated with specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf dry matter content (LDMC). These drivers of individual-level survival were reflected in successional shifts to higher SLA and LDMC diversity but lower WSG diversity. Our study makes significant advances to identifying the links between individual tree performance, species functional traits, and mechanisms of tropical forest succession.

  11. Predicting and testing resource partitioning in a tropical fish assemblage of zooplanktivorous 'barbs': an ecomorphological approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dejen, E.; Vijverberg, J.; de Graaf, M.; Sibbing, F.A.

    2006-01-01

    Morphometrics on 25 critical feeding structures predicted conspicuous specializations in Barbus tanapelagius (pursuit hunting for zooplankton), Labeobarbus brevicephalus (surface dwelling pump-filter-feeder on zooplankton) and Barbus pleurogramma (particulate feeding on tough, benthic food), whereas

  12. R/V KAIYO cruises from 1995-2000 collecting CTD, XCTD, and dissolved oxygen data in support of the Tropical Ocean Climate Study in the Tropical Western Pacific (NODC Accession 0048913)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set includes 10 cruises of the R/V Kaiyo of the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center conducted in 1995-2000 as part of the Tropical Ocean Climate...

  13. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-01-01

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

  14. Can Leaf Spectroscopy Predict Leaf and Forest Traits Along a Peruvian Tropical Forest Elevation Gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, Christopher E.; Santos-Andrade, P. E.; Goldsmith, G. R.; Blonder, B.; Shenkin, A.; Bentley, L. P.; Chavana-Bryant, C.; Huaraca-Huasco, W.; Díaz, S.; Salinas, N.; Enquist, B. J.; Martin, R.; Asner, G. P.; Malhi, Y.

    2017-11-01

    High-resolution spectroscopy can be used to measure leaf chemical and structural traits. Such leaf traits are often highly correlated to other traits, such as photosynthesis, through the leaf economics spectrum. We measured VNIR (visible-near infrared) leaf reflectance (400-1,075 nm) of sunlit and shaded leaves in 150 dominant species across ten, 1 ha plots along a 3,300 m elevation gradient in Peru (on 4,284 individual leaves). We used partial least squares (PLS) regression to compare leaf reflectance to chemical traits, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, structural traits, including leaf mass per area (LMA), branch wood density and leaf venation, and "higher-level" traits such as leaf photosynthetic capacity, leaf water repellency, and woody growth rates. Empirical models using leaf reflectance predicted leaf N and LMA (r2 > 30% and %RMSE < 30%), weakly predicted leaf venation, photosynthesis, and branch density (r2 between 10 and 35% and %RMSE between 10% and 65%), and did not predict leaf water repellency or woody growth rates (r2<5%). Prediction of higher-level traits such as photosynthesis and branch density is likely due to these traits correlations with LMA, a trait readily predicted with leaf spectroscopy.

  15. A comparison of visual and collection-based methods for assessing community structure of coral reef fishes in the tropical Eastern Pacific

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alzate, Adriana; Zapata, Fernando A.; Giraldo, Alan

    Gorgona Island, the major insular area in the Colombian Pacific Ocean, is characterized by a remarkably high biological and ecosystem diversity for this area of the world. Coral reefs are well developed and their fish communities have been described using conventional visual surveys. These methods,

  16. Real-Time Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using COAMPS-TC

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    troposphere. Volcanic sul- fur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide vapor molecules are photo- oxidized in the LS, forming gaseous sulphuric acid, which in...proximity to the U.S. East Coast. The COAMPS-TC prediction captures the large areal extent of the precipitation field, as well as its asymmetry about

  17. Scurvy in a tropical paradise? Evaluating the possibility of infant and adult vitamin C deficiency in the Lapita skeletal sample of Teouma, Vanuatu, Pacific islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Hallie R; Kinaston, Rebecca; Halcrow, Siân E; Foster, Aimee; Spriggs, Matthew; Bedford, Stuart

    2014-06-01

    The Neolithic colonisation of the Pacific islands was one of the most challenging migration events in human history. The regions east of the Solomon Islands were colonised relatively recently by a people known as the Lapita. The Lapita brought with them a 'transported landscape' of domesticated plants and animals that had to be established upon arrival for the survival of these fledgling communities. Colonisation of these previously uninhabited islands was potentially perilous, and could leave colonisers vulnerable to periods of resource stress. The largest cemetery sample of Lapita people from the site of Teouma in Vanuatu offers a unique opportunity to assess the impact of colonisation on the health of pioneering populations. This paper explores the possibility that Teouma people experienced vitamin C deficiency as one of the consequences of the agricultural subsistence practices during the initial phases of island colonisation. Skeletal lesions in infants and adults indicative of scurvy suggest that initial colonisation phases in the Pacific islands involved precarious times involving deficiencies of key nutrients. Colonisation of the Pacific islands may share similar frameworks and problems as periods of subsistence transition in other parts of the world. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  19. Genome-wide prediction models that incorporate de novo GWAS are a powerful new tool for tropical rice improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spindel, J E; Begum, H; Akdemir, D; Collard, B; Redoña, E; Jannink, J-L; McCouch, S

    2016-01-01

    To address the multiple challenges to food security posed by global climate change, population growth and rising incomes, plant breeders are developing new crop varieties that can enhance both agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. Current breeding practices, however, are unable to keep pace with demand. Genomic selection (GS) is a new technique that helps accelerate the rate of genetic gain in breeding by using whole-genome data to predict the breeding value of offspring. Here, we describe a new GS model that combines RR-BLUP with markers fit as fixed effects selected from the results of a genome-wide-association study (GWAS) on the RR-BLUP training data. We term this model GS + de novo GWAS. In a breeding population of tropical rice, GS + de novo GWAS outperformed six other models for a variety of traits and in multiple environments. On the basis of these results, we propose an extended, two-part breeding design that can be used to efficiently integrate novel variation into elite breeding populations, thus expanding genetic diversity and enhancing the potential for sustainable productivity gains. PMID:26860200

  20. Assessing the accuracy of globe thermometer method in predicting outdoor mean radiant temperature under Malaysia tropical microclimate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrit, N. G.; Alghoul, M. A.; Sopian, K.; Lahimer, A. A.; Elayeb, O. K.

    2017-11-01

    Assessing outdoor human thermal comfort and urban climate quality require experimental investigation of microclimatic conditions and their variations in open urban spaces. For this, it is essential to provide quantitative information on air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and mean radiant temperature. These parameters can be quantified directly except mean radiant temperature (Tmrt). The most accurate method to quantify Tmrt is integral radiation measurements (3-D shortwave and long-wave) which require using expensive radiometer instruments. To overcome this limitation the well-known globe thermometer method was suggested to calculate Tmrt. The aim of this study was to assess the possibility of using indoor globe thermometer method in predicting outdoor mean radiant temperature under Malaysia tropical microclimate. Globe thermometer method using small and large sizes of black-painted copper globes (50mm, 150mm) were used to estimate Tmrt and compare it with the reference Tmrt estimated by integral radiation method. The results revealed that the globe thermometer method considerably overestimated Tmrt during the middle of the day and slightly underestimated it in the morning and late evening. The difference between the two methods was obvious when the amount of incoming solar radiation was high. The results also showed that the effect of globe size on the estimated Tmrt is mostly small. Though, the estimated Tmrt by the small globe showed a relatively large amount of scattering caused by rapid changes in radiation and wind speed.

  1. Predicted carbonation of existing concrete building based on the Indonesian tropical micro-climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmy, M.; Prabowo, H.

    2018-03-01

    This paper is aimed to predict the carbonation progress based on the previous mathematical model. It shortly explains the nature of carbonation including the processes and effects. Environmental humidity and temperature of the existing concrete building are measured and compared to data from local Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency. The data gained are expressed in the form of annual hygrothermal values which will use as the input parameter in carbonation model. The physical properties of the observed building such as its location, dimensions, and structural material used are quantified. These data then utilized as an important input parameter for carbonation coefficients. The relationships between relative humidity and the rate of carbonation established. The results can provide a basis for repair and maintenance of existing concrete buildings and the sake of service life analysis of them.

  2. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  3. Thermal niche predicts tolerance to habitat conversion in tropical amphibians and reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frishkoff, Luke O; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C

    2015-11-01

    Habitat conversion is a major driver of the biodiversity crisis, yet why some species undergo local extinction while others thrive under novel conditions remains unclear. We suggest that focusing on species' niches, rather than traits, may provide the predictive power needed to forecast biodiversity change. We first examine two Neotropical frog congeners with drastically different affinities to deforestation and document how thermal niche explains deforestation tolerance. The more deforestation-tolerant species is associated with warmer macroclimates across Costa Rica, and warmer microclimates within landscapes. Further, in laboratory experiments, the more deforestation-tolerant species has critical thermal limits, and a jumping performance optimum, shifted ~2 °C warmer than those of the more forest-affiliated species, corresponding to the ~3 °C difference in daytime maximum temperature that these species experience between habitats. Crucially, neither species strictly specializes on either habitat - instead habitat use is governed by regional environmental temperature. Both species track temperature along an elevational gradient, and shift their habitat use from cooler forest at lower elevations to warmer deforested pastures upslope. To generalize these conclusions, we expand our analysis to the entire mid-elevational herpetological community of southern Costa Rica. We assess the climatological affinities of 33 amphibian and reptile species, showing that across both taxonomic classes, thermal niche predicts presence in deforested habitat as well as or better than many commonly used traits. These data suggest that warm-adapted species carry a significant survival advantage amidst the synergistic impacts of land-use conversion and climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Remote and Local Influences in Forecasting Pacific SST: a Linear Inverse Model and a Multimodel Ensemble Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggiani Dias, D.; Subramanian, A. C.; Zanna, L.; Miller, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific sector is well known to vary on time scales from seasonal to decadal, and the ability to predict these SST fluctuations has many societal and economical benefits. Therefore, we use a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIMs) to understand the remote and local SST variability that influences SST predictions over the North Pacific region and further improve our understanding on how the long-observed SST record can help better guide multi-model ensemble forecasts. Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Pacific sector (between 15oS and 60oN) are used to construct different regional LIMs for seasonal to decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are compared to that from two operational forecast systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) revealing that the LIM has better skill in the Northeastern Pacific than NMME models. The LIM is also found to have comparable forecast skill for SST in the Tropical Pacific with NMME models. This skill, however, is highly dependent on the initialization month, with forecasts initialized during the summer having better skill than those initialized during the winter. The forecast skill with LIM is also influenced by the verification period utilized to make the predictions, likely due to the changing character of El Niño in the 20th century. The North Pacific seems to be a source of predictability for the Tropics on seasonal to interannual time scales, while the Tropics act to worsen the skill for the forecast in the North Pacific. The data were also bandpassed into seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales to identify the relationships between time scales using the structure of the propagator matrix. For the decadal component, this coupling occurs the other way around: Tropics seem to be a source of predictability for the Extratropics, but the Extratropics don't improve the predictability for the Tropics. These results indicate the importance of temporal

  5. Ethnicity predicts viral rebound after travel to the tropics in HIV-infected travelers to the tropics in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebreselassie, H M; Kraus, D; Fux, C A; Haubitz, S; Scherrer, A; Hatz, C; Veit, O; Stoeckle, M; Fehr, J; de Lucia, S; Cavassini, M; Bernasconi, E; Schmid, P; Furrer, H; Staehelin, C

    2017-09-01

    The number of HIV-infected individuals from developed countries travelling to tropical and subtropical areas has increased as a result of the clinical and survival benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy. The aim of our study was to describe the traveler population in the SHCS and to determine the frequency of viral rebound in virologically suppressed individuals after a travel episode to the tropics compared to non-travelers. Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants with at least one follow-up visit between 1 January 1989 and 28 February 2015 were eligible for inclusion in the study. The primary outcome was the occurrence of viral rebound (viral load > 200 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) after a travel episode compared with a nontravel episode in previously suppressed individuals (≤ 200 copies/mL). All virologically suppressed patients contributed multiple travel or nontravel episodes to the analysis. Logistic regression was performed including factors associated with viral rebound. We included 16 635 patients in the study, of whom 6084 (36.5%) had ever travelled to the tropics. Travel frequency increased over time, with travellers showing better HIV parameters than nontravellers [less advanced Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stage and higher CD4 count nadir]. Viral rebound was seen in 477 (3.9%) of 12 265 travel episodes and in 5121 (4.5%) of 114 884 nontravel episodes [unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.97]. Among these 477 post-travel viral rebounds, 115 had a resistance test performed and 51 (44%) of these showed new resistance mutations. Compared with European and North American patients, the odds for viral rebound were significantly lower in Southeast Asian (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.51-0.88) and higher in sub-Saharan African (SSA) patients (OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.22-1.62). Travel further increased the odds of viral rebound in SSA patients (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.53-2.61). Region of origin is the main risk factor for viral rebound

  6. Spatial patterns of primary productivity derived from the Dynamic Habitat Indices predict patterns of species richness and distributions in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttidate, Naparat

    Humans are changing the Earth's ecosystems, which has profound consequences for biodiversity. To understand how species respond to these changes, biodiversity science requires accurate assessments of biodiversity. However, biodiversity assessments are still limited in tropical regions. The Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), derived from satellite data, summarize dynamic patterns of annual primary productivity: (a) cumulative annual productivity, (b) minimum annual productivity, and (c) seasonal variation in productivity. The DHIs have been successfully used in temperate regions, but not yet in the tropics. My goal was to evaluate the importance of primary productivity measured via the DHIs for assessing patterns of species richness and distributions in Thailand. First, I assessed the relationships between the DHIs and tropical bird species richness. I also evaluated the complementarity of the DHIs and topography, climate, latitudinal gradients, habitat heterogeneity, and habitat area in explaining bird species richness. I found that among three DHIs, cumulative annual productivity was the most important factor in explaining bird species richness and that the DHIs outperformed other environmental variables. Second, I developed texture measures derive from DHI cumulative annual productivity, and compared them to habitat composition and fragmentation as predictors of tropical forest bird distributions. I found that adding texture measures to habitat composition and fragmentation models improved the prediction of tropical bird distributions, especially area- and edge-sensitive tropical forest bird species. Third, I predicted the effects of trophic interactions between primary productivity, prey, and predators in relation to habitat connectivity for Indochinese tigers (Panthera tigris). I found that including trophic interactions improved habitat suitability models for tigers. However, tiger habitat is highly fragmented with few dispersal corridors. I also identified

  7. Physical and biogeochemical forcing of oxygen and nitrate changes during El Niño/El Viejo and La Niña/La Vieja upper-ocean phases in the tropical eastern South Pacific along 86° W

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Llanillo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Temporal changes in the water mass distribution and biogeochemical signals in the tropical eastern South Pacific are investigated with the help of an extended optimum multi-parameter (OMP analysis, a technique for inverse modeling of mixing and biogeochemical processes through a multidimensional least-square fit. Two ship occupations of a meridional section along 85°50' W from 14° S to 1° N are analysed during relatively warm (El Niño/El Viejo, March 1993 and cold (La Niña/La Vieja, February 2009 upper-ocean phases. The largest El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO impact was found in the water properties and water mass distribution in the upper 200 m north of 10° S. ENSO promotes the vertical motion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ associated with the hypoxic equatorial subsurface water (ESSW. During a cold phase the core of the ESSW is found at shallower layers, replacing shallow (top 200 m subtropical surface water (STW. The heave of isopycnals due to ENSO partially explains the intrusion of oxygen-rich and nutrient-poor antarctic intermediate water (AAIW into the depth range of 150–500 m. Th