Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

OpenAIRE

Don U.A. Galagedera; Roland G. Shami

2004-01-01

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return an...

Regime Shifts and Resilience in Fisheries Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, Chuan Zhong; Villasante, Sebastian; Zhu, Xueqin

2016-01-01

We investigate the role of potential regime shifts in Argentinean hake fishery and the inter-linkage between ecological and economic resilience. We develop a theoretical model incorporated with the hazard function for resource management under alternative conditions, and derive the corrective

Regime shifts, resilience and recovery of a cod stock

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindegren, Martin; Diekmann, Rabea; Möllmann, Christian

2010-01-01

In the North and Baltic seas Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stocks collapsed as part or one of the major factors inducing large-scale ecosystem regime shifts. Determining the relative contribution of overfishing and climate variability in causing these shifts has proven difficult. While facing similar...

Catastrophic regime shifts in model ecological communities are true phase transitions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capitán, J A; Cuesta, J A

2010-01-01

Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in external conditions. Usual models introduce nonlinearities in the macroscopic dynamics of the ecosystem that lead to different stable attractors among which the shift takes place. Here we propose an alternative explanation of catastrophic regime shifts based on a recent model that pictures ecological communities as systems in continuous fluctuation, according to certain transition probabilities, between different micro-states in the phase space of viable communities. We introduce a spontaneous extinction rate that accounts for gradual changes in external conditions, and upon variations on this control parameter the system undergoes a regime shift with similar features to those previously reported. Under our microscopic viewpoint we recover the main results obtained in previous theoretical and empirical work (anomalous variance, hysteresis cycles, trophic cascades). The model predicts a gradual loss of species in trophic levels from bottom to top near the transition. But more importantly, the spectral analysis of the transition probability matrix allows us to rigorously establish that we are observing the fingerprints, in a finite size system, of a true phase transition driven by background extinctions

Regime shifts in the marine environment: the scientific basis and political context.

Science.gov (United States)

Kraberg, Alexandra C; Wasmund, Norbert; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Schiedek, Doris; Wiltshire, Karen H; Mieszkowska, Nova

2011-01-01

Regime shifts in the marine environment have recently received much attention. To date, however, few large-scale meta-analyses have been carried out due to insufficient data coverage and integration between sustained observational datasets because of diverse methodologies used in data collection, recording and archival. Here we review the available data on regime shifts globally, followed by a review of current and planned policies with relevance to regime shifts. We then focus on the North and Baltic Seas, providing examples of existing efforts for data integration in the MarBEF Network of Excellence. Existing gaps in data coverage are identified, and the added value from meta-analyses of multiple datasets demonstrated using examples from the MarBEF integrated data project LargeNet. We discuss whether these efforts are addressing current policy needs and close with recommendations for future integrated data networks to increase our ability to understand, identify and predict recent and future regime shifts. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anticipating regime shifts in gene expression: The case of an autoactivating positive feedback loop

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Gupta, A. K.

2016-03-01

Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and complex diseases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of additive, multiplicative, and cross-correlated stochastic perturbations on determining the regime shifts in a bistable gene regulatory system, which gives rise to two distinct states of low and high concentrations of protein. We obtain the stationary probability density and mean first-passage time of the system. We show that increasing the additive (multiplicative) noise intensity induces a regime shift from a low (high) to a high (low) protein concentration state. However, an increase in the cross-correlation intensity always induces regime shifts from a high to a low protein concentration state. For both bifurcation-induced (often called the tipping point) and noise-induced (called stochastic switching) regime shifts, we further explore the robustness of recently developed critical-down-based early warning signal (EWS) indicators (e.g., rising variance and lag-1 autocorrelation) on our simulated time-series data. We identify that using EWS indicators, prediction of an impending bifurcation-induced regime shift is relatively easier than that of a noise-induced regime shift in the considered system. Moreover, the success of EWS indicators also strongly depends upon the nature of the noise.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

Science.gov (United States)

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

Regime shifts under forcing of non-stationary attractors: Conceptual model and case studies in hydrologic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jeryang; Rao, P Suresh C

2014-11-15

We present here a conceptual model and analysis of complex systems using hypothetical cases of regime shifts resulting from temporal non-stationarity in attractor strengths, and then present selected published cases to illustrate such regime shifts in hydrologic systems (shallow aquatic ecosystems; water table shifts; soil salinization). Complex systems are dynamic and can exist in two or more stable states (or regimes). Temporal variations in state variables occur in response to fluctuations in external forcing, which are modulated by interactions among internal processes. Combined effects of external forcing and non-stationary strengths of alternative attractors can lead to shifts from original to alternate regimes. In systems with bi-stable states, when the strengths of two competing attractors are constant in time, or are non-stationary but change in a linear fashion, regime shifts are found to be temporally stationary and only controlled by the characteristics of the external forcing. However, when attractor strengths change in time non-linearly or vary stochastically, regime shifts in complex systems are characterized by non-stationary probability density functions (pdfs). We briefly discuss implications and challenges to prediction and management of hydrologic complex systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emerging Trends in Development of International Information Security Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena S. Zinovieva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the key trends shaping the international regime on information security. International cooperation in this area at the global level encounters contradictions of state interest. The main actors of the information security are the United States, Russia, China and the EU countries (Britain, France and Germany. The main contradiction is developing between the US on one side and Russia and China on the other. EU countries occupy the middle position, gravitating to that of US. The article proves that international cooperation on information security will reflect the overall logic of the development of international cooperation, which is characterized by a new model of cooperation, with the participation of state and non-state actors, known as multi-stakeholder partnerships and multi-level cooperation. The logic of the formation of an international regime on information security is closest to the logic of the formation of the international non-proliferation regime. It is in the interest of Russia to support the trend towards regionalization of information security regime. Russia can form a regional information security regime in the former Soviet Union on the basis of the CSTO and SCO and potentially on a wider Eurasian space. Such regional regime would give Russia an opportunity to shape the international regime and closely monitor emerging information security issues in the former Soviet Union, and remove the potential threat of "color revolutions".

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

2015-02-05

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

New trends of activity on supporting of non-proliferation regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Issaeva, G.M.; Tyupkina, O.G.

2002-01-01

Taking into account the necessity of all possible strengthening of non-proliferation regimes Kazakhstan participates in a number of agreements and associations: Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, Comprehensive Test-Ban-Treaty, International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Supplier Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, Conference on Disarmament, etc. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (CTR) greatly influenced on the development on non-proliferation regime in Kazakhstan. During initial stage of CTR activity (1993-1995) military projects prevailed. Later (1995-1997) the projects on liquidation of infrastructure for nuclear and bio- weapons were successfully realized. Last years, since 1999, the attention was shifted towards proliferation prevention of hazardous nuclear and biological materials. Recent terrorist acts and world community activity on global safety strengthening underline an urgency of quite new problems that entirely applied to Kazakhstan: monitoring of hazardous materials; enhancement of safety systems of 'risky' facilities and technologies; creation and/or upgrading of safety systems for industry infrastructure. The proposals of these new trends of non-proliferation have been developed. Development of physical protection system for oil and gas industry infrastructure of Kazakhstan based on safety concepts of nuclear facilities; Evaluation of radionuclide contamination and safety of oil and gas facilities of the Caspian region; Counteraction to nuclear materials proliferation; Cooperative approaches in preventing/reducing of illicit trafficking and use of WMD-related explosive materials. Implementation of the project would make of substantial contribution to successful solution of either regional or global safety problem

Transformational Change and Regime Shifts in the Circumpolar Arctic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annika E. Nilsson

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The Arctic is changing rapidly, and there are many indications that the region is in the midst of transformational change. While some of the focus relates to impacts of climate change, rapid economic development and the potential for shifts in political and social structures in the region have also been in the limelight. This article looks at the circumpolar Arctic as a potential case of a regime shift in a large-scale social–ecological system that includes reinforcing feedbacks. A special focus is placed on governance structures, as these play an important role in social negotiations on the relationship between societies and the environment. While climate change is often portrayed as a driver of social change in the Arctic, it does not appear that the ongoing changes in the biophysical features of the Arctic region have rocked current circumpolar governance structures out of kilter. On the contrary, the ongoing climate-related changes, in particular sea ice decline, appear to have reinforced political commitment to existing legal structures. Major past social regime shifts have mainly been related to access to resources and national identity ideology, with political dynamics reinforced at times by military security considerations.

Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

2014-02-01

Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble

Science.gov (United States)

Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-01-01

The Subprime Bubble preceding the Subprime Crisis of 2008 was fueled by risky lending practices, manifesting in the form of a large abrupt increase in the proportion of subprime mortgages issued in the US. This event also coincided with critical slowing down signals associated with instability, which served as evidence of a regime shift or phase transition in the US housing market. Here, we show that the US housing market underwent a regime shift between alternate stable states consistent with the observed critical slowing down signals. We modeled this regime shift on a universal transition path and validated the model by estimating when the bubble burst. Additionally, this model reveals loose monetary policy to be a plausible cause of the phase transition, implying that the bubble might have been deflatable by a timely tightening of monetary policy. PMID:27583633

Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

2009-01-01

of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only. The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability...

Trophic cascades triggered by overfishing reveal possible mechanisms of ecosystem regime shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Daskalov, Georgi M; Grishin, Alexander N; Rodionov, Sergei; Mihneva, Vesselina

2007-06-19

Large-scale transitions between alternative states in ecosystems are known as regime shifts. Once described as healthy and dominated by various marine predators, the Black Sea ecosystem by the late 20th century had experienced anthropogenic impacts such as heavy fishing, cultural eutrophication, and invasions by alien species. We studied changes related to these "natural experiments" to reveal the mechanisms of regime shifts. Two major shifts were detected, the first related to a depletion of marine predators and the second to an outburst of the alien comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi; both shifts were triggered by intense fishing resulting in system-wide trophic cascades. The complex nature of ecosystem responses to human activities calls for more elaborate approaches than currently provided by traditional environmental and fisheries management. This implies challenging existing practices and implementing explanatory models of ecosystem interactions that can better reconcile conservation and ecosystem management ideals.

Impacts of extensive driftnet fishery and late 1990s climate regime shift on dominant epipelagic nekton in the Transition Region and Subtropical Frontal Zone: Implications for fishery management

Science.gov (United States)

Ichii, T.; Nishikawa, H.; Igarashi, H.; Okamura, H.; Mahapatra, K.; Sakai, M.; Wakabayashi, T.; Inagake, D.; Okada, Y.

2017-01-01

We investigated the impacts of extensive anthropogenic (high seas driftnet squid fishery) and natural (late 1990s major climate regime shift) events on dominant epipelagic fish, squid, and shark in the central North Pacific Transition Region based on a driftnet survey covering the years 1979-2006. Fishing was conducted by Japan, Korea and Taiwan to target neon flying squid in the period 1979-1992, resulting in a decline in stocks of the target species and non-target species (Pacific pomfret and juvenile blue shark), which were by-catch of this fishery. The catch was found to be at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) level for neon flying squid, the underfished level for juvenile blue shark, but the overfished level for Pacific pomfret. The MSY of Pacific pomfret indicated that this species is more susceptible to exploitation than previously considered. In response to the late 1990s regime shift, neon flying squid and Pacific saury showed low stock levels in 1999-2002 and 1998-2002, respectively, as a result of reduced productivity in their nursery grounds (the Subtropical Frontal Zone and Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region, respectively). On the other hand, Pacific pomfret showed no decreasing trend in stock during the low- and intermediate-productivity regimes because of the high productivity of their main spawning/nursery ground (Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front), which was independent of the regime shifts. Thus, squid and saury appear to be more susceptible to the regime shift than pomfret. We discuss the implications for stock management of the species-specific responses to the fishery and the regime shift.

Motional frequency shifts of trapped ions in the Lamb-Dicke regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lizuain, I.; Muga, J. G.; Eschner, J.

2007-01-01

First order Doppler effects are usually ignored in laser driven trapped ions when the recoil frequency is much smaller than the trapping frequency (Lamb-Dicke regime). This means that the central, carrier excitation band is supposed to be unaffected by vibronic transitions in which the vibrational number changes. While this is strictly true in the Lamb-Dicke limit (infinitely tight confinement), the vibronic transitions do play a role in the Lamb-Dicke regime. In this paper we quantify the asymptotic behavior of their effect with respect to the Lamb-Dicke parameter. In particular, we give analytical expressions for the frequency shift, 'pulling' or 'pushing', produced in the carrier absorption band by the vibronic transitions both for Rabi and Ramsey schemes. This shift is shown to be independent of the initial vibrational state

Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Modelling regime shifts in the southern Benguela: a frame-based approach. MD Smith, A Jarre. Abstract. This study explores the usefulness of a frame-based modelling approach in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, with four frames describing observed small pelagic fish dominance patterns. We modelled the ...

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

2015-01-01

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

An algorithm for engineering regime shifts in one-dimensional dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, James P. L.

2018-01-01

Regime shifts are discontinuous transitions between stable attractors hosting a system. They can occur as a result of a loss of stability in an attractor as a bifurcation is approached. In this work, we consider one-dimensional dynamical systems where attractors are stable equilibrium points. Relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a system may escape an undesirable attractor into a desirable one. We test the algorithm on synthetic data from a one-dimensional dynamical system with a multitude of stable equilibrium points and also on a model of the population dynamics of spruce budworms in a forest. The algorithm and other ideas discussed here contribute to an important part of the literature on exercising greater control over the sometimes unpredictable nature of nonlinear systems.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

2015-04-01

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Donges, J. F.; Donner, R. V.; Marwan, N.; Breitenbach, S. F. M.; Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

2015-05-01

The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Regime shifts in demersal assemblages of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: a comparative assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkman, Stephen P.; Yemane, Dawit; Atkinson, Lara J.

2015-01-01

Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community‐level sh......Using long‐term survey data, changes in demersal faunal communities in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem were analysed at community and population levels to provide a comparative overview of the occurrence and timing of regime shifts. For South Africa, the timing of a community...

Property rights, institutional regime shifts and the provision of freshwater ecosystem services on the Pongola River floodplain, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bimo Abraham Nkhata

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a property rights perspective to interpret institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. Institutional regime shifts are conceived as persistent changes in the structure and function of a system. Property rights are viewed as an important component of institutional regimes. The paper draws on a case study of flow regulation on the Pongolo Floodplain in South Africa to illustrate the central role of property rights in mediating institutional regime shifts. The case study illustrates that there are many combinations of property rights that underpin institutional regime shifts in the provision of freshwater ecosystem services. It provides useful insights into the consequences of failing to recognize, establish and enforce bundles of rights. A major thrust of the case study is that the nature and context of property rights are important in determining the long-term provision of these services. By examining the configurations of property rights that have governed the Pongola River floodplain over the years, the paper demonstrates the importance of explicitly defining and categorizing the range of rights.

Do limiting factors at Alaskan treelines shift with climatic regimes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohse, B; Jansen, F; Wilmking, M

2012-01-01

predictions of continued warming and precipitation increase at northern high latitudes hold true, the growth of Alaskan treeline trees will likely depend on the ratio of temperature and precipitation increase more than on their absolute values, as well as on the interaction of periodic regime shifts with the global warming trend. Once a climatic limitation is lifted, other factors, such as insect outbreaks or interspecific competition, might become limiting to tree growth. (letter)

Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

OpenAIRE

Kawata, Yukichika

2011-01-01

Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Sy-Miin; Ou, Lu; Ciptadi, Arridhana; Prince, Emily B; You, Dongjun; Hunter, Michael D; Rehg, James M; Rozga, Agata; Messinger, Daniel S

2018-06-01

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of [Formula: see text] mother-infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children's tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.

The 3000-4000 cal. BP anthropogenic shift in fire regime in the French Pyrenees.

Science.gov (United States)

Rius, D.; Vannière, B.; Galop, D.; Richard, H.

2009-04-01

Fire is a key disturbing agent in a wide range of ecosystems: boreal biome (Pitkanen, 2000), Mediterranean area (Colombaroli et al., 2008) as well as temperate European mountain zones (Tinner et al., 1999). During the Holocene, climate may control fire regime by both ignition and fire spread-favouring conditions (i.e. composition, structure and moisture of biomass) whereas man may change charcoal accumulation patterns through type and intensity of agro-pastoral activities. In western and Mediterranean Europe, single sites charcoal analysis recorded the anthropogenic forcing over fire regime broadly between the mid and the late-Holocene. Turner et al (2008) showed that climate and fire had been disconnected since 1700 cal. BP in Turkey. In central Swiss, Mean Fire Interval decreased by two times 2000 years ago due to increasing human impact (Stahli et al., 2006). In Italy, climate and man have had a combined influence on fire-hazard since ca 4000 cal. BP (Vannière et al., 2008). In the Pyrenees Mountains, the linkage between agro-pastoral practices and fire could be dated back to ca 4000-3000 cal. BP with a clear succession of a clearance phase (high fire frequency) followed by a quite linear trend throughout Middle Ages and Modern times corresponding to a change in fire use (Vanniere et al., 2001; Galop et al., 2002, Rius et al., in press). The quantification of fire regimes parameters such as frequency with robust methodological tools (Inferred Fire Frequency, Mean Fire Interval) is needed to understand and characterise such shifts. Here we present two sequences from the Lourdes basin (col d'Ech peat bog) and from the occidental Pyrenees (Gabarn peat bog), which cover the last 9000 years with high temporal resolution. The main goals of this study were to (1) assess control factors of fire regime throughout the lateglacial and Holocene (climate and/or man) on the local scale, (2) evidence the local/regional significance of these control factors , (3) discuss the

Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

2015-01-01

In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self...

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Millennial-scale plankton regime shifts in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, Kelton W; McCarthy, Matthew D; Sherwood, Owen A; Larsen, Thomas; Guilderson, Thomas P

2015-12-18

Climate change is predicted to alter marine phytoplankton communities and affect productivity, biogeochemistry, and the efficacy of the biological pump. We reconstructed high-resolution records of changing plankton community composition in the North Pacific Ocean over the past millennium. Amino acid-specific δ(13)C records preserved in long-lived deep-sea corals revealed three major plankton regimes corresponding to Northern Hemisphere climate periods. Non-dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria dominated during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 Common Era) before giving way to a new regime in which eukaryotic microalgae contributed nearly half of all export production during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1850 Common Era). The third regime, unprecedented in the past millennium, began in the industrial era and is characterized by increasing production by dinitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. This picoplankton community shift may provide a negative feedback to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The altered ecology of Lake Christina: A record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theissen, Kevin M.; Hobbs, William O.; Hobbs, Joy M. Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Domine, Leah M.; Cotner, James B.; Sugita, Shinya

2012-01-01

We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3–4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ 13 C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ 15 N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ 13 C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. -- Highlights: ► We explore the sediment geochemistry from Lake Christina's two distinct sub-basins. ► Our geochemical data show

Preventing regime shifts on the Colorado Plateau: Application of ecological threshold concepts to land management decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Investigating the mechanisms responsible for ecological thresholds is essential to understanding processes leading to ecosystem regime shifts. Dryland ecosystems are especially prone to threshold behavior wherein stressor-mediated alteration of patterns and processes can shift systems to alternative...

Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R

2017-01-24

Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium population shifts among two-dimensional Data frames. TREND can also carry this out by independent component analysis. We highlight a few examples of finding concurrent processes. TREND extracts dual phases of binding to two sites directly from the NMR spectra of the titrations. In a cardiac movie from magnetic resonance imaging, TREND resolves principal components (PCs) representing breathing and the cardiac cycle. TREND can also reconstruct the series of measurements from selected PCs, as illustrated for a biphasic, NMR-detected titration and the cardiac MRI movie. Fidelity of reconstruction of series of NMR spectra or images requires more PCs than needed to plot the largest population shifts. TREND reads spectra from many spectroscopies in the most common formats (JCAMP-DX and NMR) and multiple movie formats. The TREND package thus provides convenient tools to resolve the processes recorded by diverse biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Randsalu-Wendrup, L.; Conley, D.J.; Snowball, I.

2012-01-01

. This study demonstrates that it is possible to detect, quantify and test for regime shifts in paleoecological data, and it highlights the need for high sampling resolution and precise chronological control. High-resolution paleoecological reconstructions of ecological regime shifts in response to climate...

Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibanez, Carles, E-mail: carles.ibanez@irta.cat [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa [IRTA Aquatic Ecosystems, Carretera Poble Nou, Km 5.5, 43540 St. Carles de la Rapita, Catalonia (Spain); Alonso, Miguel [United Research Services S.L., Urgell 143, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Duran, Concha [Confederacion Hidrografica del Ebro, Sagasta 24-26, 50071 Zaragoza, Aragon (Spain); Jimenez, Pere J. [Grup Natura Freixe, Major 56, 43750 Flix, Catalonia (Spain); Munne, Antoni [Agencia Catalana de l' Aigua, Provenca 204-208, 08036 Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Prat, Narcis [Departament d' Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal 645, 08028 Barcelona Catalonia (Spain)

2012-02-01

The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described

Regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance in a large river: Top-down versus bottom-up effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibáñez, Carles; Alcaraz, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Trobajo, Rosa; Alonso, Miguel; Duran, Concha; Jiménez, Pere J.; Munné, Antoni; Prat, Narcís

2012-01-01

The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton-dominated to a macrophyte-dominated system. This shift is well known in shallow lakes but apparently it has never been documented in rivers. Two initial hypotheses to explain the collapse of the phytoplankton were considered: a) the diminution of nutrients (bottom-up); b) the filtering effect due to the colonization of the zebra mussel (top-down). Data on water quality, hydrology and biological communities (phytoplankton, macrophytes and zebra mussel) was obtained both from existing data sets and new surveys. Results clearly indicate that the decrease in phosphorus is the main cause of a dramatic decrease in chlorophyll and large increase in water transparency, triggering the subsequent colonization of macrophytes in the river bed. A Generalized Linear Model analysis showed that the decrease in dissolved phosphorus had a relative importance 14 times higher than the increase in zebra mussel density to explain the variation of total chlorophyll. We suggest that the described changes in the lower Ebro River can be considered a novel ecosystem shift. This shift is triggering remarkable changes in the biological communities beyond the decrease of phytoplankton and the proliferation of macrophytes, such as massive colonization of Simulidae (black fly) and other changes in the benthic invertebrate communities that are currently investigated. - Highlights: ► We show a regime shift in a large river from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance. ► Two main hypotheses are considered: nutrient decrease and zebra mussel grazing. ► Phosphorus depletion is found to be the main cause of the phytoplankton decline. ► We conclude that oligotrophication triggered the colonization of macrophytes. ► This new regime shift in a river is similar to that described in shallow lakes.

Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-03-01

The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunqun Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Genkai-Kato, Motomi; Vadeboncoeur, Yvonne; Liboriussen, Lone; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-03-01

Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sergent, Arnaud

2014-01-01

This article examines energy transition political process from a sector-based approach, through the analysis of recent shift in the French forest policy regime. We demonstrate that, since 2007, energy transition policies have led to a harvesting turn within the French forest policy framework, meaning that priority is given to wood mobilisation, mainly for biomass uses. In addition, our findings suggest that the political authority wielded by the state over forest policy has shifted from forest administrative services to energy agencies and local authorities. Finally, we show that, although implementation of the harvesting turn is a cause of sectoral and inter-sectoral tensions, energy transition challenge also contributes to a process of (re)institutionalisation of mediation relationships among forestry stakeholders and wood-based industries representatives. The article concludes by arguing that sectors should retain relevant institutional frameworks for actors when choosing political arrangements required for implementing energy transition policy. - Highlights: • Implementing energy transition policy potentially challenges sector-based politics. • We propose a policy regime framework and socio-political investigations. • We analyse the political impact of energy transition policy on French forest sector. • Shifts occur in sectoral policy framework, authority, and mediation relationships

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Aziz, Omar I.; Burn, Donald H.

2006-03-01

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime were analyzed for the Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. The procedure utilized the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach for correcting time-series data for autocorrelation and a bootstrap resampling method to account for the cross-correlation structure of the data. A total of 19 hydrological and six meteorological variables were selected for the study. Analysis was conducted on hydrological data from a network of 54 hydrometric stations and meteorological data from a network of 10 stations. The results indicated that several hydrological variables exhibit a greater number of significant trends than are expected to occur by chance. Noteworthy were strong increasing trends over the winter month flows of December to April as well as in the annual minimum flow and weak decreasing trends in the early summer and late fall flows as well as in the annual mean flow. An earlier onset of the spring freshet is noted over the basin. The results are expected to assist water resources managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Regime shift of snow days in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Marty, Christoph

2008-06-01

The number of days with a snow depth above a certain threshold is the key factor for winter tourism in an Alpine country like Switzerland. An investigation of 34 long-term stations between 200 and 1800 m asl (above sea level) going back for at least the last 60 years (1948-2007) shows an unprecedented series of low snow winters in the last 20 years. The signal is uniform despite high regional differences. A shift detection analysis revealed a significant step-like decrease in snow days at the end of the 1980's with no clear trend since then. This abrupt change resulted in a loss of 20% to 60% of the total snow days. The stepwise increase of the mean winter temperature at the end of the 1980's and its close correlation with the snow day anomalies corroborate the sensitivity of the mid-latitude winter to the climate change induced temperature increase.

Volcano-induced regime shifts in millennial tree-ring chronologies from northeastern North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Arseneault, Dominique; Nicault, Antoine; Perreault, Luc; Bégin, Yves

2014-07-15

Dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada recently suggested that a succession of strong volcanic eruptions forced an abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age between A.D. 1275 and 1300 [Miller GH, et al. (2012) Geophys Res Lett 39(2):L02708, 10.1029/2011GL050168]. Although this idea is supported by simulation experiments with general circulation models, additional support from field data are limited. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere network of temperature-sensitive millennial tree-ring chronologies, which principally comprises Eurasian sites, suggests that the strongest eruptions only caused cooling episodes lasting less than about 10 y. Here we present a new network of millennial tree-ring chronologies from the taiga of northeastern North America, which fills a wide gap in the network of the Northern Hemisphere's chronologies suitable for temperature reconstructions and supports the hypothesis that volcanoes triggered both the onset and the coldest episode of the Little Ice Age. Following the well-expressed Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately A.D. 910-1257), which comprised the warmest decades of the last millennium, our tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction displays an abrupt regime shift toward lower average summer temperatures precisely coinciding with a series of 13th century eruptions centered around the 1257 Samalas event and closely preceding ice-cap expansion in Arctic Canada. Furthermore, the successive 1809 (unknown volcano) and 1815 (Tambora) eruptions triggered a subsequent shift to the coldest 40-y period of the last 1100 y. These results confirm that series of large eruptions may cause region-specific regime shifts in the climate system and that the climate of northeastern North America is especially sensitive to volcanic forcing.

Links between the recruitment success of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) and a regime shift on the NE Atlantic continental shelf

KAUST Repository

Goikoetxea, Nerea

2013-07-01

The distribution of northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius L.) extends from the Bay of Biscay up to Norwegian waters. However, despite its wide geographical distribution, there have been few studies on fluctuations in the European hake populations. Marine ecosystem shifts have been investigated worldwide and their influence on trophic levels has been studied, from top predator fish populations down to planktonic prey species, but there is little information on the effect of atmosphere-ocean shifts on European hake. This work analyses hake recruitment success (recruits per adult biomass) in relation to environmental changes over the period 1978-2006 in order to determine whether the regime shift identified in several abiotic and biotic variables in the North Sea also affected the Northeast Atlantic shelf oceanography. Hake recruitment success as well as parameters such as the sea surface temperature, wind patterns and copepod abundance changed significantly at the end of the 1980s, demonstrating an ecological regime shift in the Northeast Atlantic. Despite the low reproductive biomass recorded during the last decades, hake recruitment success has been higher since the change in 1989/90. The higher productivity may have sustained the population despite the intense fishing pressure; copepod abundance, warmer water temperatures and moderate eastward transport were found to be beneficial. In conclusion, in 1988/89 the Northeast Atlantic environment shifted to a favourable regime for northern hake production. This study supports the hypothesis that the hydro-climatic regime shift that affected the North Sea in the late 1980s may have influenced a wider region, such as the Northeast Atlantic. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Liming; Chen, Shiping; Xia, Jianyang; Luo, Yiqi

2014-01-01

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m−2) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m−2) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r 2 = 0.92, Psoil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change. PMID:25093573

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandra Conversi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

Science.gov (United States)

Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

2010-05-19

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin

Trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during northeast and southwest monsoons

Science.gov (United States)

Chooi Tan, Kok

2018-04-01

The trends of rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia is mainly affected by the seasonal monsoon. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of northeast and southwest monsoons on the monthly rainfall patterns over Badenoch Estate, Kedah. In addition, the synoptic maps of wind vector also being developed to identify the wind pattern over Peninsular Malaysia from 2007 – 2016. On the other hand, the archived daily rainfall data is acquired from Malaysian Meteorological Department. The temporal and trends of the monthly and annual rainfall over the study area have been analysed from 2007 to 2016. Overall, the average annual precipitation over the study area from 2007 to 2016 recorded by rain gauge is 2562.35 mm per year.

Trends in low-temperature water–gas shift reactivity on transition metals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schumacher, Nana Maria Pii; Boisen, Astrid; Dahl, Søren

2005-01-01

Low-temperature water–gas shift reactivity trends on transition metals were investigated with the use of a microkinetic model based on a redox mechanism. It is established that the adsorption energies for carbon monoxide and oxygen can describe to a large extent changes in the remaining activation...

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

2015-09-01

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

Beyond the fragmentation threshold hypothesis: regime shifts in biodiversity across fragmented landscapes.

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Renata Pardini

Full Text Available Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andrén proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions--that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework

Probe-controlled soliton frequency shift in the regime of optical event horizon.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei; Zeng, Xianglong

2015-08-24

In optical analogy of the event horizon, temporal pulse collision and mutual interactions are mainly between an intense solitary wave (soliton) and a dispersive probe wave. In such a regime, here we numerically investigate the probe-controlled soliton frequency shift as well as the soliton self-compression. In particular, in the dispersion landscape with multiple zero dispersion wavelengths, bi-directional soliton spectral tunneling effects is possible. Moreover, we propose a mid-infrared soliton self-compression to the generation of few-cycle ultrashort pulses, in a bulk of quadratic nonlinear crystals in contrast to optical fibers or cubic nonlinear media, which could contribute to the community with a simple and flexible method to experimental implementations.

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Xiangzhen; He, Qishuang; Yang, Bin; He, Wei; Xu, Fuliu; Janssen, Annette B G; Kuiper, Jan J; van Gerven, Luuk P A; Qin, Ning; Jiang, Yujiao; Liu, Wenxiu; Yang, Chen; Bai, Zelin; Zhang, Min; Kong, Fanxiang; Janse, Jan H; Mooij, Wolf M

2017-02-01

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such 'regime shifts' can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long-term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi-objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when

Exploring spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Jiménez-Ruano, Adrián; Rodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos; de la Riva Fernández, Juan

2017-10-01

This paper explores spatial-temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial - regional and provincial/NUTS3 - levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974-2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures - Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change), PELT (pruned exact linear time) and BinSeg (binary segmentation) - at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA) and varimax rotation to trend outputs - mainly Sen's slope values - to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann-Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1), summer burnt area (PC2), large fires (PC3) and natural fires (PC4).

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as

Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: implications for interpreting population trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil Paprocki

Full Text Available Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975-2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr(-1 and 7.74 km yr(-1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally

Regional Distribution Shifts Help Explain Local Changes in Wintering Raptor Abundance: Implications for Interpreting Population Trends

OpenAIRE

Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.

2014-01-01

Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a ...

Limnological regime shifts caused by climate warming and Lesser Snow Goose population expansion in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba, Canada).

Science.gov (United States)

MacDonald, Lauren A; Farquharson, Nicole; Merritt, Gillian; Fooks, Sam; Medeiros, Andrew S; Hall, Roland I; Wolfe, Brent B; Macrae, Merrin L; Sweetman, Jon N

2015-02-01

Shallow lakes are dominant features in subarctic and Arctic landscapes and are responsive to multiple stressors, which can lead to rapid changes in limnological regimes with consequences for aquatic resources. We address this theme in the coastal tundra region of Wapusk National Park, western Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada), where climate has warmed during the past century and the Lesser Snow Goose (LSG; Chen caerulescens caerulescens) population has grown rapidly during the past ∽40 years. Integration of limnological and paleolimnological analyses documents profound responses of productivity, nutrient cycling, and aquatic habitat to warming at three ponds ("WAP 12", "WAP 20", and "WAP 21″), and to LSG disturbance at the two ponds located in an active nesting area (WAP 20, WAP 21). Based on multiparameter analysis of (210)Pb-dated sediment records from all three ponds, a regime shift occurred between 1875 and 1900 CE marked by a transition from low productivity, turbid, and nutrient-poor conditions of the Little Ice Age to conditions of higher productivity, lower nitrogen availability, and the development of benthic biofilm habitat as a result of climate warming. Beginning in the mid-1970s, sediment records from WAP 20 and WAP 21 reveal a second regime shift characterized by accelerated productivity and increased nitrogen availability. Coupled with 3 years of limnological data, results suggest that increased productivity at WAP 20 and WAP 21 led to atmospheric CO2 invasion to meet algal photosynthetic demand. This limnological regime shift is attributed to an increase in the supply of catchment-derived nutrients from the arrival of LSG and their subsequent disturbance to the landscape. Collectively, findings discriminate the consequences of warming and LSG disturbance on tundra ponds from which we identify a suite of sensitive limnological and paleolimnological measures that can be utilized to inform aquatic ecosystem monitoring.

International Petroleum Fiscal Regimes: Trends in Tax-Royalty Worldwide and in Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIANA PAPATULICĂ

2014-05-01

Full Text Available “Resource nationalism” is a cyclical phenomenon whereby governments assert varying degrees of control over natural resources located within their territories, in an attempt to maximise revenue generation from their national resources. Resource nationalism often depends on the price of hydrocarbons and the ability of national governments to extract them. International oil companies are attractive partners for the development of concessions as they have advanced extractive technology, superior project management skills, flexible logistical chains and access to capital from global financial markets. However, these advantages will erode as National Oil Companies (NOCs improve their expertise over the mid- to long-term and new forms of resource nationalism may restrict their room for manoeuvre.The recent trends in most of oil producing countries’ policies are focusing on highly increasing the fiscal levies imposed to resources exploited under the concession agreements and also on imposing minimum labor taxes. At the end of 2014, The Romanian Government will have to reappraise the fiscal systems for the companies operating in the national oil and gas upstream sector, because the 10-year "freezing" of royalties on oil and gas, at a very low level compared with other producing countries will come to an end. This article tries to present the trends in the international petroleum fiscal regimes worldwide, to make a comparative analysis between Romania and other countries from this point of view and finally to make some recommendations as regards the main guidelines that the negociators could follow in order to obtain better conditions for the new fiscal regime and implicitly a better turning into account of our natural resources to the benefit of the consumers.

Exploring spatial–temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jiménez-Ruano

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper explores spatial–temporal dynamics in fire regime features, such as fire frequency, burnt area, large fires and natural- and human-caused fires, as an essential part of fire regime characterization. Changes in fire features are analysed at different spatial – regional and provincial/NUTS3 – levels, together with summer and winter temporal scales, using historical fire data from Spain for the period 1974–2013. Temporal shifts in fire features are investigated by means of change point detection procedures – Pettitt test, AMOC (at most one change, PELT (pruned exact linear time and BinSeg (binary segmentation – at a regional level to identify changes in the time series of the features. A trend analysis was conducted using the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests at both the regional and NUTS3 level. Finally, we applied a principal component analysis (PCA and varimax rotation to trend outputs – mainly Sen's slope values – to summarize overall temporal behaviour and to explore potential links in the evolution of fire features. Our results suggest that most fire features show remarkable shifts between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Mann–Kendall outputs revealed negative trends in the Mediterranean region. Results from Sen's slope suggest high spatial and intra-annual variability across the study area. Fire activity related to human sources seems to be experiencing an overall decrease in the northwestern provinces, particularly pronounced during summer. Similarly, the Hinterland and the Mediterranean coast are gradually becoming less fire affected. Finally, PCA enabled trends to be synthesized into four main components: winter fire frequency (PC1, summer burnt area (PC2, large fires (PC3 and natural fires (PC4.

Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

2009-03-01

The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN NIGERIA: A MARKOV REGIME-SWITCHING APPROACH

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Akinlo A. Enisan

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Several studies have analyzed the movement of foreign direct investment in Nigeria using linear approach. In contrast with all existing studies in Nigeria, this paper runs several non linear FDI equations where the main determinants of FDI are determined using Markov- Regime Switching Model (MSMs. The approach enables us to observe structural changes, where exist, in FDI equations through time. Asides, where FDI regression equation is truly nonlinear, MSMs fit data better than the linear models. The paper adopts maximum likelihood methodology of Markov-Regime Model (MSM to identify possible structural changes in level and/or trends and possible changes in parameters of independent variables through the transition probabilities. The results show that FDI process in Nigeria is governed by two different regimes and a shift from one regime to another regime depends on transition probabilities. The results show that the main determinants of FDI are GDP growth, macro instability, financial development, exchange rate, inflation and discount rate. This implies liberalization that stems inflation and enhance the value of domestic currency will attract more FDI into the country.

Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

2017-07-07

It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Effect of a Change in the Exchange Rate System: From a Fixed Regime to a Basket-Peg or a Floating Regime

OpenAIRE

Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji, Sahoko; Asonuma, Tamon

2015-01-01

This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a doll...

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN GROWTH OF PINUS PALUSTRIS AND PINUS ELLIOTTII GROWING ALONG A HYDROLOGICAL GRADIENT IN CENTRAL FLORIDA

Science.gov (United States)

Land-use change and urbanization has led to changes in the hydrologic regime in wet central Florida, with a trend toward lowered water table levels. These hydrologic changes are having environmental consequences in wetlands, where shifts in species composition and fire frequency...

Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Pieter S A; Juday, Glenn P; Alix, Claire; Barber, Valerie A; Winslow, Stephen E; Sousa, Emily E; Heiser, Patricia; Herriges, James D; Goetz, Scott J

2011-04-01

Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome's margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome's southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal-tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Hydrological regime shift in a constructed catchment: Effect of vegetation encroachment on surface runoff

Science.gov (United States)

Hinz, C.; Caviedes-Voullieme, D.; Andezhath Mohanan, A.; Brueck, Y.; Zaplata, M.

2017-12-01

The Hühnerwasser catchment (Chicken Creek) was constructed to provide discharge for a small stream in the post-mining landscape of Lusatia, Germany. It has an area of 6 ha and quaternary sands with a thickness of 2-4 m were dumped on to a clay liner to prevent deep drainage. After completion of the construction the catchment was left to develop on its own without intervention and has been monitored since 2005. The upper part of the catchment discharges water and sediment into the lower part forming an alluvial fan. Below the alluvial fan is a pond receiving all surface and subsurface water from the upper catchment. After the formation of the drainage network vegetation started growing and surface runoff decreased until the water balance was dominated by evapotranspiration. This regime shift and the rate at which it happened depends on the vegetation encroachment into the rills and the interrill areas. Based on the hypothesis that vegetation will increase surface roughness and infiltration behavior, aerial photos were used to map rills and vegetation within and outside the rills for the last 10 years to obtain a time series of change. Observational evidence clearly shows that vegetation encroaches from the bottom, from the interrill areas as well as from the top. The rills themselves did not change their topology, however, the width of the erosion rills and gully increased at the bottom. For a subcatchment area a high resolution a physical based numerical model of overland flow was developed to explicitly assess the importance of increasing roughness and infiltration capacity for surface runoff. For the purpose of analyzing the effect of rainfall variability a rainfall generator was developed to carry out large sets of simulations. The simulations provide a means to assess how the roughness/infiltration feedback affects the rate of regime shift for a set of parameters that are consistent with the observed hydrological behavior of the drainage network.

Shift of subtropical transport barriers explains observed hemispheric asymmetry of decadal trends of age of air

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. P. Stiller

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In response to global warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere is expected to accelerate and the mean transport time of air along this circulation to decrease. This would imply a negative stratospheric age of air trend, i.e. an air parcel would need less time to travel from the tropopause to any point in the stratosphere. Age of air as inferred from tracer observations, however, shows zero to positive trends in the northern mid-latitude stratosphere and zonally asymmetric patterns. Using satellite observations and model calculations we show that the observed latitudinal and vertical patterns of the decadal changes of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere during the period 2002–2012 are predominantly caused by a southward shift of the circulation pattern by about 5°. After correction for this shift, the observations reveal a hemispherically almost symmetric decrease of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere up to 800 K of up to −0.25 years over the 2002–2012 period with strongest decrease in the northern tropics. This net change is consistent with long-term trends from model predictions.

Moderate drop in water table increases peatland vulnerability to post-fire regime shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Kettridge, N; Turetsky, M R; Sherwood, J H; Thompson, D K; Miller, C A; Benscoter, B W; Flannigan, M D; Wotton, B M; Waddington, J M

2015-01-27

Northern and tropical peatlands represent a globally significant carbon reserve accumulated over thousands of years of waterlogged conditions. It is unclear whether moderate drying predicted for northern peatlands will stimulate burning and carbon losses as has occurred in their smaller tropical counterparts where the carbon legacy has been destabilized due to severe drainage and deep peat fires. Capitalizing on a unique long-term experiment, we quantify the post-wildfire recovery of a northern peatland subjected to decadal drainage. We show that the moderate drop in water table position predicted for most northern regions triggers a shift in vegetation composition previously observed within only severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The combined impact of moderate drainage followed by wildfire converted the low productivity, moss-dominated peatland to a non-carbon accumulating shrub-grass ecosystem. This new ecosystem is likely to experience a low intensity, high frequency wildfire regime, which will further deplete the legacy of stored peat carbon.

Bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects in the regime of optical event horizon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gu, Jie; Guo, Hairun; Wang, Shaofei

2015-01-01

We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects.......We study the cross-phase-modulation-induced soliton spectral shifting in the regime of the optical event horizon. The perturbed soliton to either red-shifting or blue-shifting is controllable, which could evoke bidirectional soliton spectral tunneling effects....

Resilience of the Nexus of Competitive Water Consumption between Human Society and Environment Development: Regime Shifts and Early Warning Signals

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Liu, P.; Feng, M.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Based on the modeling of the water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) nexus by Feng et al. (2016), a refined theoretical model of competitive water consumption between human society and environment has been presented in this study, examining the role of technology advancement and social environmental awareness growth-induced pollution mitigation to the environment as a mechanism for the establishment and maintenance of the coexistence of both higher social water consumption and improved environment condition. By coupling environmental and social dynamics, both of which are represented by water consumption quantity, this study shows the possibility of sustainable situation of the social-environmental system when the benefit of technology offsets the side effect (pollution) of social development to the environment. Additionally, regime shifts could be triggered by gradually increased pollution rate, climate change-induced natural resources reduction and breakdown of the social environmental awareness. Therefore, in order to foresee the pending abrupt regime shifts of the system, early warning signals, including increasing variance and autocorrelation, have been examined when the system is undergoing stochastic disturbance. ADDIN EN.REFLIST Feng, M. et al., 2016. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China. J. Hydrol., 543: 344-359.

Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: some international evidence

OpenAIRE

Massimo Guidolin; Federica Ria

2010-01-01

Regime switching models have been assuming a central role in financial applications because of their well-known ability to capture the presence of rich non-linear patterns in the joint distribution of asset returns. This paper examines how the presence of regimes in means, variances, and correlations of asset returns translates into explicit dynamics of the Markowitz mean-variance frontier. In particular, the paper shows both theoretically and through an application to international equity po...

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

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Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

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Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-03-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

Science.gov (United States)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-01-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

Task 1.5 Genomic Shift and Drift Trends of Emerging Pathogens

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Borucki, M

2010-01-05

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Bioinformatics group has recently taken on a role in DTRA's Transformation Medical Technologies Initiative (TMTI). The high-level goal of TMTI is to accelerate the development of broad-spectrum countermeasures. To achieve those goals, TMTI has a near term need to conduct analyses of genomic shift and drift trends of emerging pathogens, with a focused eye on select agent pathogens, as well as antibiotic and virulence markers. Most emerging human pathogens are zoonotic viruses with a genome composed of RNA. The high mutation rate of the replication enzymes of RNA viruses contributes to sequence drift and provides one mechanism for these viruses to adapt to diverse hosts (interspecies transmission events) and cause new human and zoonotic diseases. Additionally, new viral pathogens frequently emerge due to genetic shift (recombination and segment reassortment) which allows for dramatic genotypic and phenotypic changes to occur rapidly. Bacterial pathogens also evolve via genetic drift and shift, although sequence drift generally occurs at a much slower rate for bacteria as compared to RNA viruses. However, genetic shift such as lateral gene transfer and inter- and intragenomic recombination enables bacteria to rapidly acquire new mechanisms of survival and antibiotic resistance. New technologies such as rapid whole genome sequencing of bacterial genomes, ultra-deep sequencing of RNA virus populations, metagenomic studies of environments rich in antibiotic resistance genes, and the use of microarrays for the detection and characterization of emerging pathogens provide mechanisms to address the challenges posed by the rapid emergence of pathogens. Bioinformatic algorithms that enable efficient analysis of the massive amounts of data generated by these technologies as well computational modeling of protein structures and evolutionary processes need to be developed to allow the technology to fulfill its potential.

Precipitation collector bias and its effects on temporal trends and spatial variability in National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network data

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Wetherbee, Gregory A.

2017-01-01

Precipitation samples have been collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program's (NADP) National Trends Network (NTN) using the Aerochem Metrics Model 301 (ACM) collector since 1978. Approximately one-third of the NTN ACM collectors have been replaced with N-CON Systems, Inc. Model ADS 00-120 (NCON) collectors. Concurrent data were collected over 6 years at 12 NTN sites using colocated ACM and NCON collectors in various precipitation regimes. Linear regression models of the colocated data were used to adjust for relative bias between the collectors. Replacement of ACM collectors with NCON collectors resulted in shifts in 10-year seasonal precipitation-weighted mean concentration (PWMC) trend slopes for: cations (−0.001 to −0.007 mgL−1yr−1), anions (−0.009 to −0.028 mgL−1yr−1), and hydrogen ion (+0.689 meqL-1yr−1). Larger shifts in NO3− and SO4−2 seasonal PWMC trend slopes were observed in the Midwest and Northeast US, where concentrations are generally higher than in other regions. Geospatial analysis of interpolated concentration rasters indicated regions of accentuated variability introduced by incorporation of NCON collectors into the NTN.

Identificando mudanças de regimes sistêmicos em processos econômicos: um procedimento baseado na abordagem de dinâmica de sistemas Identifying systemic regime shifts in economic processes: a procedure based on the system dynamics approach

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Newton Paulo Bueno

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A tese deste trabalho é que as técnicas mais sofisticadas atualmente utilizadas pelos economistas para fazer previsões (métodos não estruturais de previsão, em geral, e modelos de detecção de mudanças de regime, em particular não parecem realmente muito eficazes em prever mudanças radicais de regime como a que ocorreu na economia mundial recentemente. Assim, para aumentar seu grau de acurácia, parece razoável imaginar que tais técnicas devam ser complementadas por abordagens mais holísticas. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é mostrar que a metodologia de dinâmica de sistemas (system dynamics, que permite identificar os ciclos de feedback que comandam a dinâmica de sistemas complexos, parece estar especialmente bem-equipada para se tornar uma dessas abordagens complementares. Pretende-se, especificamente, apresentar um algoritmo sistêmico para identificar processos de mudança de regime como os que ocorrem quando uma economia, após anos de expansão continuada, sofre os efeitos da explosão de uma bolha financeira, como ocorreu recentemente.This paper argues that the sophisticated techniques presently used by economists to forecast macroeconomic variables behavior (non-structural forecasting methods, in general, and regime-switching models, in particular do not seem much effective for anticipating radical regime shifts as recently happened in the world economy. Thus, in order to improve their accuracy, it seems that they should be complemented by more holistic approaches. The general purpose of the paper is to show that the system dynamics methodology, which allows identifying the critical feedback loops that drive complex systems' dynamics, seems to be especially fitted to be one of those complementary approaches. To reach that goal, we present a systemic algorithm which allows identifying regime shift processes as the ones that take place when an economy is hit by the effects of a financial bubble burst.

Development and current trends in the international nonproliferation regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sessoms, A.L.

1984-01-01

The IAEA and its safeguards system is placed into a historical perspective. A personal perspective on the nonproliferation regime and on the Agency's role in it is then presented. This is done initially by discussing some of the landmark events in the history of the nonproliferation regime. Subsequently some of the history of arms control agreements and of the role of the IAEA are noted. Then political motivations of state and ways the Agency has an impact in the political nonproliferation sphere are addressed

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social ...

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In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises,

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

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Iqra Atif

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

Lava Fountaining Discharge Regime driven by Slug-to-Churn Flow Transition. (Invited)

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Ripepe, M.; Pioli, L.; Marchetti, E.; Ulivieri, G.

2013-12-01

Lava fountaining episodes at Etna volcano appear characterized by the transition between Strombolian and Hawaiian end-member eruptive styles. There is no evidence for this transition in the seismic (i.e. seismic tremor) signal. However, infrasonic records provide unprecedented evidence on this flow transition. Each eruptive episode is characterized by distinctive common trend in the amplitude, waveform and frequency content of the infrasonic wavefield, which evidences the shift from discrete, and transient, strombolian to sustained, and oscillatory, lava fountain dynamics. Large scale experiments on the dynamics of two-phase flow of basaltic magmas show how the transition between different regimes mainly depends on gas volume flow, which in turn controls pressure distribution within the conduit and also magma vesicularity. In particular, while regular large bubble bursting is associated with slug flow regime, large amplitude and low frequency column oscillations are associated with churn flow. In large pipes, transition from slug to churn flow regime is independent on conduit diameter and it is reached at high superficial gas velocity. Lava fountaining episodes at Etna can be thus interpreted as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regimes that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. Based on laboratory experiments, we calculate that transition between these two end-member explosive regimes at Etna occurs when gas superficial velocity is 76 m/s for near-the-vent stagnant magma conditions.

Assessing water quality trends in catchments with contrasting hydrological regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Sherriff, Sophie C.; Shore, Mairead; Mellander, Per-Erik

2016-04-01

classes yielded higher flow-weighted SS concentrations as source availability was combined with enhanced transport efficiency of specific pathways. However, discrepancies between monthly rainfall totals and monthly flow-weighted pollutant export are likely due to event scale variability in storm characteristics, lag times and source availability. This methodology was useful to indicate sub-annual water quality trends due to agricultural land use changes in multiple catchments with contrasting hydrological regimes. Consequently, critical periods of pollutant transfer can be targeted to develop sustainable environmental management strategies.

Rainfall and runoff regime trends in mountain catchments (Case study area: the upper Hron River basin, Slovakia

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Blahušiaková Andrea

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of trends and causes of changes of selected hydroclimatic variables influencing the runoff regime in the upper Hron River basin (Slovakia. Different methods for identifying trends in data series are evaluated and include: simple mass curve analysis, linear regression, frequency analysis of flood events, use of the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration software, and the Mann-Kendall test. Analyses are performed for data from two periods (1931-2010 and 1961-2010. The changes in runoff are significant, especially in terms of lower QMax and 75 percentile values. This fact is also confirmed by the lower frequency and extremity of flood events. The 1980s are considered a turning point in the development of all hydroclimatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test shows a significant decrease in runoff in the winter period. The main causes of runoff decline are: the considerable increase in air temperature, the decrease in snow cover depth and changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation amounts.

Regime-switching stochastic volatility. Evidence from the crude oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vo, Minh T.

2009-01-01

This paper incorporates regime-switching into the stochastic volatility (SV) framework in an attempt to explain the behavior of crude oil prices in order to forecast their volatility. More specifically, it models the volatility of oil return as a stochastic volatility process whose mean is subject to shifts in regime. The shift is governed by a two-state first-order Markov process. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the models. The main findings are: first, there is clear evidence of regime-switching in the oil market. Ignoring it will lead to a false impression that the volatility is highly persistent and therefore highly predictable. Second, incorporating regime-switching into the SV framework significantly enhances the forecasting power of the SV model. Third, the regime-switching stochastic volatility model does a good job in capturing major events affecting the oil market. (author)

Projected Regime Shift in Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks

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Chen, Yonghua; Miller, James R.; Francis, Jennifer; Russel, Gary L.

2011-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing faster than any other large-scale region on Earth. A variety of positive feedback mechanisms are responsible for the amplification, most of which are linked with changes in snow and ice cover, surface temperature (T(sub s)), atmospheric water vapor (WV), and cloud properties. As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, air temperature and water vapor content also increase, leading to a warmer surface and ice loss, which further enhance evaporation and WV. Many details of these interrelated feedbacks are poorly understood, yet are essential for understanding the pace and regional variations in future Arctic change. We use a global climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Atmosphere-Ocean Model) to examine several components of these feedbacks, how they vary by season, and how they are projected to change through the 21st century. One positive feedback begins with an increase in T(sub s) that produces an increase in WV, which in turn increases the downward longwave flux (DLF) and T(sub s), leading to further evaporation. Another associates the expected increases in cloud cover and optical thickness with increasing DLF and T(sub s). We examine the sensitivities between DLF and other climate variables in these feedbacks and find that they are strongest in the non-summer seasons, leading to the largest amplification in Ts during these months. Later in the 21st century, however, DLF becomes less sensitive to changes in WV and cloud optical thickness, as they cause the atmosphere to emit longwave radiation more nearly as a black body. This regime shift in sensitivity implies that the amplified pace of Arctic change relative to the northern hemisphere could relax in the future.

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida, driven by the Devonian biotic crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsdell, James C; Selden, Paul A

2017-01-01

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the "Big Five" mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Regime shift by an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub mediates plant facilitation in primary succession.

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Adriano Stinca

Full Text Available Ecosystem invasion by non-native, nitrogen-fixing species is a global phenomenon with serious ecological consequences. However, in the Mediterranean basin few studies addressed the impact of invasion by nitrogen-fixing shrubs on soil quality and hydrological properties at local scale, and the possible effects on succession dynamics and ecosystem invasibility by further species. In this multidisciplinary study we investigated the impact of Genista aetnensis (Biv. DC., an exotic nitrogen-fixing shrub, on the Vesuvius Grand Cone (Southern Italy. Specifically, we tested the hypotheses that the invasion of G. aetnensis has a significant impact on soil quality, soil hydrological regime, local microclimate and plant community structure, and that its impact increases during the plant ontogenetic cycle. We showed that G. aetnensis, in a relatively short time-span (i.e. ~ 40 years, has been able to build-up an island of fertility under its canopy, by accumulating considerable stocks of C, N, and P in the soil, and by also improving the soil hydrological properties. Moreover, G. aetnensis mitigates the daily range of soil temperature, reducing the exposure of coexisting plants to extremely high temperatures and water loss by soil evaporation, particularly during the growing season. Such amelioration of soil quality, coupled with the mitigation of below-canopy microclimatic conditions, has enhanced plant colonization of the barren Grand Cone slopes, by both herbaceous and woody species. These results suggest that the invasion of G. aetnensis could eventually drive to the spread of other, more resource-demanding exotic species, promoting alternative successional trajectories that may dramatically affect the local landscape. Our study is the first record of the invasion of G. aetnensis, an additional example of the regime shifts driven by N-fixing shrubs in Mediterranean region. Further studies are needed to identity specific management practices that can

How do copper contamination pulses shape the regime shifts of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics?

Science.gov (United States)

Camara, B. I.; Yamapi, R.; Mokrani, H.

2017-07-01

The presence of pollutants in waters, particularly from heavy metals, is of grave concern worldwide due to its cytotoxicity to organisms. Fish and aquatic organisms are very sensitive to the increasing Cu concentrations in water. Therefore, Cu toxicity partly depends on water quality. To address the effects of impulsive copper contamination of the phytoplankton-zooplankton population dynamics, we've built a model that focuses on the interaction between algae and Daphnia with deterministic and stochastic impulse copper. In fact the Results have shown three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. In low (4.4 μgL-1) copper concentration, deterministic and stochastic pulses may promote the persistence of Daphnia and algae populations unlike the absence of pulses. Whereas, in high (28 μgL-1) concentration, it accelerates deficiency and toxicity processes, leads to the extinction of all populations and in intermediate concentrations. Deterministic and stochastic pulses may transform population dynamics in complex oscillations. Numerical results show that the system that has been considered has more complex dynamics including bifurcation, period-doubling oscillations and chaos. Depending on minimum copper concentration in the environment, the bifurcation diagram has highlighted the resilience or the regime shifts of the system in occurrence of pulse contamination.

Food crises, food regimes and food movements: rumblings of reform or tides of transformation?

Science.gov (United States)

Holt Giménez, Eric; Shattuck, Annie

2011-01-01

This article addresses the potential for food movements to bring about substantive changes to the current global food system. After describing the current corporate food regime, we apply Karl Polanyi's 'double-movement' thesis on capitalism to explain the regime's trends of neoliberalism and reform. Using the global food crisis as a point of departure, we introduce a comparative analytical framework for different political and social trends within the corporate food regime and global food movements, characterizing them as 'Neoliberal', 'Reformist', 'Progressive', and 'Radical', respectively, and describe each trend based on its discourse, model, and key actors, approach to the food crisis, and key documents. After a discussion of class, political permeability, and tensions within the food movements, we suggest that the current food crisis offers opportunities for strategic alliances between Progressive and Radical trends within the food movement. We conclude that while the food crisis has brought a retrenchment of neoliberalization and weak calls for reform, the worldwide growth of food movements directly and indirectly challenge the legitimacy and hegemony of the corporate food regime. Regime change will require sustained pressure from a strong global food movement, built on durable alliances between Progressive and Radical trends.

Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

2013-03-26

Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Kittiwake diets and chick production signal a 2008 regime shift in the Northeast Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Hatch, Scott A.

2013-01-01

I examined ~2700 food samples collected from adult and nestling black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla from 1978 through 2011 on Middleton Island in the Gulf of Alaska. The kittiwake diet was composed chiefly of fish, but invertebrates were taken in appreciable quantities in April and May. Upon spring arrival at the colony, adult kittiwakes foraged regularly at night on vertically migrating mesopelagic prey—lanternfishes (Myctophidae), squids, crustaceans, and polychaetes—a behavior they largely discontinued by egg-laying. During incubation and chick-rearing, food samples contained mostly (~85% by weight) Pacific sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus, capelin Mallotus villosus, Pacific herring Clupea pallasii, sablefish Anopoploma fimbria, krill (Euphausiidae), and juvenile salmon Onchorynchus gorboscha and O. keta. A salient finding over the longitudinal study was the emergence, twice, of capelin as a dominant forage species—once in 2000 to 2003, and again in 2008 through 2011. Kittiwakes responded to capelin availability by producing markedly higher numbers of fledged young. The 2000 to 2003 event corresponded to a previously documented shift to cooler conditions in the NE Pacific, which apparently was relatively limited in magnitude or duration. The more recent transition appears stronger and may be more lasting. I submit that 2008 was an important turning point, marking a substantive reversal of warm conditions that began with the well-documented regime shift of 1977. That interpretation is consistent with the existence of a ~60 yr cycle in ocean and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific. All else being equal, it predicts the next 20 to 30 yr will be favorable for species such as kittiwakes and Steller sea lions, which seemed to respond negatively to the 1977 to 2007 warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania [International Finance Group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

2009-09-15

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour A regime switching approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2009-01-01

In this paper we develop a two regime Markov-switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry [Henry, O., 2009. Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates. Journal of Banking and Finance 33, 405-414.] to examine the relationship between crude oil shocks and stock markets. An application to stock markets of UK, France and Japan over the sample period January 1989 to December 2007 illustrates plausible results. We detect two episodes of series behaviour one relative to low mean/high variance regime and the other to high mean/low variance regime. Furthermore, there is evidence that common recessions coincide with the low mean/high variance regime. In addition, we allow both real stock returns and probability of transitions from one regime to another to depend on the net oil price increase variable. The findings show that rises in oil price has a significant role in determining both the volatility of stock returns and the probability of transition across regimes. (author)

A regime shift in the Sun-Climate connection with the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Science.gov (United States)

Smirnov, D A; Breitenbach, S F M; Feulner, G; Lechleitner, F A; Prufer, K M; Baldini, J U L; Marwan, N; Kurths, J

2017-09-11

Understanding the influence of changes in solar activity on Earth's climate and distinguishing it from other forcings, such as volcanic activity, remains a major challenge for palaeoclimatology. This problem is best approached by investigating how these variables influenced past climate conditions as recorded in high precision paleoclimate archives. In particular, determining if the climate system response to these forcings changes through time is critical. Here we use the Wiener-Granger causality approach along with well-established cross-correlation analysis to investigate the causal relationship between solar activity, volcanic forcing, and climate as reflected in well-established Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) rainfall proxy records from Yok Balum Cave, southern Belize. Our analysis reveals a consistent influence of volcanic activity on regional Central American climate over the last two millennia. However, the coupling between solar variability and local climate varied with time, with a regime shift around 1000-1300 CE after which the solar-climate coupling weakened considerably.

Quantized beam shifts in graphene

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

de Melo Kort-Kamp, Wilton Junior [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sinitsyn, Nikolai [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dalvit, Diego Alejandro Roberto [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-10-08

We predict the existence of quantized Imbert-Fedorov, Goos-Hanchen, and photonic spin Hall shifts for light beams impinging on a graphene-on-substrate system in an external magnetic field. In the quantum Hall regime the Imbert-Fedorov and photonic spin Hall shifts are quantized in integer multiples of the fine structure constant α, while the Goos-Hanchen ones in multiples of α². We investigate the influence on these shifts of magnetic field, temperature, and material dispersion and dissipation. An experimental demonstration of quantized beam shifts could be achieved at terahertz frequencies for moderate values of the magnetic field.

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

Science.gov (United States)

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2015-02-05

Feb 5, 2015 ... journal of. February 2015 ... populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. ... A recent exhaustive analysis of recorded ecosystem shifts points to an approach- .... The quantitative estimation of these.

Regime-Based Versus Static Asset Allocation: Letting the Data Speak

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nystrup, Peter; Hansen, Bo William; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Regime shifts present a big challenge to traditional strategic asset allocation. This article investigates whether regimebased asset allocation can effectively respond to changes in financial regimes at the portfolio level, in an effort to provide better long-term results than more static...... approaches can offer. The authors center their regime-based approach around a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters that can match financial markets’ tendency to change behavior abruptly and the fact that the new behavior often persists for several periods after a change. In an asset universe...

The Two Regimes of Postwar Shipping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Martin Jes; Tenold, Stig

2014-01-01

the bargaining that accompanied the shift from the national regime to the competitive regime. Specifically, we show that the new regime primarily accommodated the interests of private actors such as shipping companies, rather than the interests of the authorities and the trade unions.......The aim of this article is to illustrate the most important changes in the regulatory framework of the shipping sector from the 1960s to 2010, and to analyse the basis for, and effects of, these changes. In order to explain how the transformation has occurred, we use two traditional maritime...... nations—Denmark and Norway—as case studies. First, we introduce the two regimes of Danish and Norwegian shipping: ‘the national regime’ from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s; and ‘the competitive regime’, which was fully established by the middle of the 1990s and still persists. Then, we briefly sketch...

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

Experimental study of steam condensation regime map for simplified spargers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Y. S.; Yoon, Y. J.; Song, C. H.; Park, C. K.; Kang, H. S.; Jun, H. K.

2003-01-01

An experimental study was conducted to produce a condensation regime map for single-hole and 4-hole steam spargers using GIRLS facility. The regime map for a single-hole sparger was derived using parameters such as the frequency and magnitude of the dynamic pressure. For 4-hole sparager, the regime map was derived using the trends of sound and dynamic pressure. Using the single-hole and 4-hole data, a steam jet condensation regime map was suggested with respect to pool temperature and steam mass flux

H-mode regimes and observators of central toroidal rotation in Alcator C-Mod

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenwald, M.; Rice, J.; Boivin, R.

1999-01-01

The Enhanced D α or EDA H-mode regime in Alcator C-Mod has been investigated and compared in detail to ELM-free plasmas. (In this paper, ELM-free will refer to discharges with no type I ELMs and with no sign of EDA, though technically, most EDA plasmas are ELM-free as well.) EDA discharges have only slightly lower energy confinement than comparable ELM-free ones, but show markedly reduced impurity confinement. Thus EDA discharges do not accumulate impurities and typically have a lower fraction of radiated power. EDA plasmas are seen to be more likely at low plasma current (q > 3.7 - 4), for moderate plasma shaping (0.35 - 0.55), and for high neutral pressures. No obvious trends were observed with input power or pressure (β). In both H-mode regimes, and in ICRF heated L-modes, central impurity toroidal rotation has been deduced, from the Doppler shifts of argon x-ray lines. Rotation velocities up to 1.3 x 10 5 m/s in the co-current direction have been observed in H-mode discharges that had no direct momentum input. There is a strong correlation between the increase in the central impurity rotation velocity and the increase in the plasma stored energy, induced by ICRF heating. In otherwise similar discharges with the same stored energy increase, plasmas with lower current rotate faster. The ion pressure gradient is an unimportant contributor to the central impurity rotation and the presence of a substantial core radial electric field is inferred during the ICRF pulse. An inward shift of ions induced by ICRF waves could give rise to a non-ambipolar electric field in the plasma core. Comparisons with a neo-classical ion orbit shift model show good agreement with the observations, both in magnitude, and in the scaling with plasma current. (author)

What is the New Chinese Currency Regime?

OpenAIRE

Shah, Ajay; Zeileis, Achim; Patnaik, Ila

2005-01-01

The revaluation of the yuan in July 2005 was described by the Chinese central bank as a change in the currency regime, rather than merely a changed level of the exchange rate. The reform was said to involve a shift away from the fixed exchange rate, a gradual movement towards greater flexibility, and a peg to a basket of currencies. This paper closely examines the post-July Chinese currency regime utilising contemporary ideas in the econometrics of structural change. We find that the yuan has...

Regime-switching models to study psychological process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Kamphuis, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between different states. To model these processes at the level of the individual, regime-switching models may prove useful. In this chapter we discuss two of these models: the threshold autoregressive model and the Markov

Trends and structural shifts in health tourism: evidence from seasonal time-series data on health-related travel spending by Canada during 1970-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Loh, Chung-Ping A

2015-05-01

There has been a growing interest in better understanding the trends and determinants of health tourism activities. While much of the expanding literature on health tourism offers theoretical or qualitative discussion, empirical evidences has been lacking. This study employs Canada's outbound health tourism activities as an example to examine the trends in health tourism and its association with changing domestic health care market characteristics. A time-series model that accounts for potential structural changes in the trend is employed to analyze the quarterly health-related travel spending series reported in the Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPS) during 1970-2010 (n = 156). We identified a structural shift point which marks the start of an accelerated growth of health tourism and a flattened seasonality in such activities. We found that the health tourism activities of Canadian consumers increase when the private investment in medical facilities declines or when the private MPI increases during the years following the structural-change. We discussed the possible linkage of the structural shift to the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which went into effect in January, 1995. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal dividend distribution under Markov regime switching

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiang, Z.; Pistorius, M.

2012-01-01

We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a

Energy efficiency improvement by gear shifting optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blagojevic Ivan A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Many studies have proved that elements of driver’s behavior related to gear selection have considerable influence on the fuel consumption. Optimal gear shifting is a complex task, especially for inexperienced drivers. This paper presents an implemented idea for gear shifting optimization with the aim of fuel consumption minimization with more efficient engine working regimes. Optimized gear shifting enables the best possible relation between vehicle motion regimes and engine working regimes. New theoretical-experimental approach has been developed using On-Board Diagnostic technology which so far has not been used for this purpose. The matrix of driving modes according to which tests were performed is obtained and special data acquisition system and analysis process have been developed. Functional relations between experimental test modes and adequate engine working parameters have been obtained and all necessary operations have been conducted to enable their use as inputs for the designed algorithm. The created Model has been tested in real exploitation conditions on passenger car with Otto fuel injection engine and On-Board Diagnostic connection without any changes on it. The conducted tests have shown that the presented Model has significantly positive effects on fuel consumption which is an important ecological aspect. Further development and testing of the Model allows implementation in wide range of motor vehicles with various types of internal combustion engines.

Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Yang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Trends in energy intake in U.S. between 1977 and 1996: similar shifts seen across age groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Samara Joy; Siega-Riz, Anna Maria; Popkin, Barry M

2002-05-01

To determine the trends in locations and food sources of Americans stratified by age group for both total energy and the meal and snack subcomponents. Nationally representative data was taken from the 1977 to 1978 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey and the 1989 to 1991 and 1994 to 1996 (and 1998 for children age 2 through 9) Continuing Surveys of Food Intake by Individuals. The sample consisted of 63,380 individuals, age 2 and up. For each survey year, the percentage of total energy intake from meals and snacks was calculated separately for 2- to 18-year-olds, 19- to 39-year-olds, 40- to 59-year-olds, and those 60 years and older. The percentage of energy intake by location (at-home consumption or preparation, vending, store eaten out, restaurant/fast-food, and school) and by specific food group was computed for all age groups separately. The trends in location and food sources were almost identical for all age groups. Key dietary behavior shifts included greater away-from-home consumption; large increases in total energy from salty snacks, soft drinks, and pizza; and large decreases in energy from low- and medium-fat milk and medium- and high-fat beef and pork. Total energy intake has increased over the past 20 years, with shifts away from meals to snacks and from at-home to away-from-home consumption. The similarity of changes across all age groups furthers the assertion that broad-based environmental changes are needed to improve the diets of Americans.

The Treaty of Lisbon and the European Border Control Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marianne Takle

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The question raised in the article is how the new provisions of the Lisbon Treaty and the Stockholm programme concerning the EU’s asylum and migration policy might consolidate existing trends within the European border control regime. The regime is defined by a combination of three features: (i a harmonisation of categories among the EU/Schengen member states, (ii a growing use of new technology in networked databases and (iii an increasing sorting of individuals based on security concerns. Although none of these features is new, the combination gives a new impetus to the European border control regime. The article concludes that the Lisbon Treaty and the Stockholm programme consolidate and strengthen existing trends. This implies that policies on border control, asylum, immigration, judicial cooperation and police cooperation are consolidated in a broader approach to border control, and that there is a strengthening of EU foreign policy within the European border control regime. The boundaries between previously dispersed policy areas are blurred. The combination of different aspects of security and various levels of authority requires coordination of policies with substantially different goals, and goes beyond mere border control.

Blue and red shifted temperature dependence of implicit phonon shifts in graphene

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Sarita; Jindal, V. K.

2017-07-01

We have calculated the implicit shift for various modes of frequency in a pure graphene sheet. Thermal expansion and Grüneisen parameter which are required for implicit shift calculation have already been studied and reported. For this calculation, phonon frequencies are obtained using force constants derived from dynamical matrix calculated using VASP code where the density functional perturbation theory (DFPT) is used in interface with phonopy software. The implicit phonon shift shows an unusual behavior as compared to the bulk materials. The frequency shift is large negative (red shift) for ZA and ZO modes and the value of negative shift increases with increase in temperature. On the other hand, blue shift arises for all other longitudinal and transverse modes with a similar trend of increase with increase in temperature. The q dependence of phonon shifts has also been studied. Such simultaneous red and blue shifts in transverse or out plane modes and surface modes, respectively leads to speculation of surface softening in out of plane direction in preference to surface melting.

Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscho) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

Science.gov (United States)

Ruggerone, Gregory T.; Farley, Ed; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Hagen, Peter

2005-01-01

Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each growth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2. smolts was significantly higher than age-1 smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10-18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean regime shift. During 1977-2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955-1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977-2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.

A Study on the cooperation policy in multilateral nuclear control regimes and the advancing of national export control system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Byung Wook; Oh, K. B.; Yang, M. H.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K. S.; Ko, H. S.; Ryu, J. S.; Kim, J. S.

2004-08-01

This study carried out the analysis of trends of the multilateral nuclear control in four aspects. First, this study analyzes the past trends of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime, which includes the NPT, the IAEA safeguards system, the international nuclear export control regime and the physical protection of nuclear materials. Second, this study establishes the multilateral cooperation strategies for the effective cooperation in the process of strengthening the nuclear control regimes. Third, this study reviews the major agenda of nuclear control regimes and establishes national positions on each agenda. Fourth, this study also analyzes outstanding issues in nuclear control regimes and derives some factors to reflect national nuclear control system

Study of recent and future trends in place of death in Belgium using death certificate data: a shift from hospitals to care homes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houttekier, D.; Cohen, J.; Surkyn, J.; Deliens, L.

2011-01-01

Background: Since most patients prefer out-of-hospital death, place of death can be considered an indicator of end-of-life care quality. The study of trends in place of death is necessary to examine causes of shifts, to evaluate efforts to alter place of death and develop future policies. This study

Leisure in transformation: Meta-trends changing the world | Edginton ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Meta-trends often arise from underlying shifts in social, cultural, political, ... discussed the impact of several key meta-trends on leisure, quality of life and community ... changes and shifts; 2) social media, technology and universal connectivity; ...

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Science.gov (United States)

Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

2016-01-01

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Market Suitability and Performance Tradeoffs Offered by Commercial Wind Turbines across Differing Wind Regimes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Souma Chowdhury

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The suitability of turbine configurations to different wind resources has been traditionally restricted to considering turbines operating as standalone entities. In this paper, a framework is thus developed to investigate turbine suitability in terms of the minimum cost of energy offered when operating as a group of optimally-micro-sited turbines. The four major steps include: (i characterizing the geographical variation of wind regimes in the onshore U.S. market; (ii determining the best performing turbines for different wind regimes through wind farm layout optimization; (iii developing a metric to quantify the expected market suitability of available turbine configurations; and (iv exploring the best tradeoffs between the cost and capacity factor yielded by these turbines. One hundred thirty one types of commercial turbines offered by major global manufacturers in 2012 are considered for selection. It is found that, in general, higher rated power turbines with medium tower heights are the most favored. Interestingly, further analysis showed that “rotor diameter/hub height” ratios greater than 1.1 are the least attractive for any of the wind classes. It is also observed that although the “cost-capacity factor” tradeoff curve expectedly shifted towards higher capacity factors with increasing wind class, the trend of the tradeoff curve remained practically similar.

Social development in cities and the impact of the Nordic welfare regime

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Anders Bøggild; Rasmussen, Tove Valborg; Rasinkangas, Jarkko

The ongoing globalisation and urbanisation in most Western societies points at the cities and urban regions as especially interesting in order to discover new trends in the societal development and the welfare regimes ability to deal with these trends. In the literature about social polarisation...... it is mostly the so called global cities - and further capital cities - which are in focus of the analysis {{81 Sassen,Saskia 2001; 366 Sassen, Saskia 2000; 85 Castells,Manuel 1991; 86 Mollenkopf,John Hull 1991; 57 Marcuse,Peter 2000; 94 Hamnett,Chris 2003; 409 Andersen,Hans Thor 2005; 410 Wessel, Terje; 411...... Vaattovaara, Mari and Matti Kortteinen 2003}}. Following central thesis of trends in the distributional and spatial development in cities and discussions about the role of the welfare regime, we shall compare two middle sized cities in two Nordic countries: Aarhus, Denmark (approx 300.000 inhabitants...

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

increase. From the analyses of river flow observations and hydrological modelling, these trends result in an estimated decreasing annual trend of the mean river inflow to reservoirs of 0.091 m3/s, which is equivalent to a mean loss of 2.87 hm3/year during the study period. Nonetheless, these results are associated to a high variability of both extreme values and the annual and decadal values. Moreover, the decrease of the annual inflow is approximately a 25% higher than the loss of precipitation, due to the impact on the different water fluxes from the snowpack associated to the enhanced torrential behaviour of both snowfall/rainfall occurrence and snow persistence. The results show the complexity of hydrological processes in Mediterranean regions, especially under the snow influence, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area, with a decrease of the available water resource volume in the medium and long term. However, on an annual basis, years with an intense snowfall regime but mild and longer dry periods result in a significant increase of the annual river flow and water storage. Reservoir operation criteria and water allocation should undergo a revision based on hydrological modelling of the snow regions and scenario analysis.

Trends in shifting cultivation and the REDD mechanism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mertz, Ole

2009-01-01

of the transitions taking place. The proposed mechanism for reduced greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) can be both a challenge and opportunity for shifting cultivators. Very limited literature is available on this dilemma, but a few sources point to benefits from ‘compensated...

Regime shifts limit the predictability of land-system change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Müller, Daniel; Sun, Zhanli; Vongvisouk, Thoumthone

2014-01-01

Payment schemes for ecosystem services such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) rely on the prediction of ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios to ensure that emission reductions from carbon credits are additional. However, land systems often undergo periods of nonlinear...... and abrupt change that invalidate predictions calibrated on past trends. Rapid land-system change can occur when critical thresholds in broad-scale underlying drivers such as commodity prices and climate conditions are crossed or when sudden events such as political change or natural disasters punctuate long...

Perspectives on the International and Internal Nuclear Security Regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon

2015-01-01

The term, 'Nuclear Security' became more familiar to Korean public after the government hosted 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. Nuclear Security is prevention of, detection of and response to criminal or intentional unauthorized acts involving or directed at nuclear material, other radioactive material, associated facilities, or associated activities. Nuclear Security includes physical protection, security of radioactive sources, nuclear forensics, nuclear smuggling prevention, border monitoring, and cyber security with regard to nuclear and other radiological materials. This abstract will review recent international trends and discuss the nuclear security regime in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The international Nuclear Security Regime has been strengthened. The upcoming Chicago Summit in 2016 and the entry into force of the Amendment of Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials (CPPNM) will bring major changes in nuclear security. The Republic of Korea hosted the 2012 Seoul Summit and strengthened domestic regime to meet international standards. The ROK has worked hard to contribute to the international security regime and to establish a robust domestic security regime against terrorist threats. Even if the nuclear security regime is robust, Risk-informed Nuclear Security management should be established to meet international standards and to implement effective as well as an efficient nuclear security regime

Perspectives on the International and Internal Nuclear Security Regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Sung Soon [Korea Nuclear Non-proliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The term, 'Nuclear Security' became more familiar to Korean public after the government hosted 2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit. Nuclear Security is prevention of, detection of and response to criminal or intentional unauthorized acts involving or directed at nuclear material, other radioactive material, associated facilities, or associated activities. Nuclear Security includes physical protection, security of radioactive sources, nuclear forensics, nuclear smuggling prevention, border monitoring, and cyber security with regard to nuclear and other radiological materials. This abstract will review recent international trends and discuss the nuclear security regime in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The international Nuclear Security Regime has been strengthened. The upcoming Chicago Summit in 2016 and the entry into force of the Amendment of Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials (CPPNM) will bring major changes in nuclear security. The Republic of Korea hosted the 2012 Seoul Summit and strengthened domestic regime to meet international standards. The ROK has worked hard to contribute to the international security regime and to establish a robust domestic security regime against terrorist threats. Even if the nuclear security regime is robust, Risk-informed Nuclear Security management should be established to meet international standards and to implement effective as well as an efficient nuclear security regime.

Altered stream-flow regimes and invasive plant species: The Tamarix case

Science.gov (United States)

Stromberg, J.C.; Lite, S.J.; Marler, R.; Paradzick, C.; Shafroth, P.B.; Shorrock, D.; White, J.M.; White, M.S.

2007-01-01

Aim: To test the hypothesis that anthropogenic alteration of stream-flow regimes is a key driver of compositional shifts from native to introduced riparian plant species. Location: The arid south-western United States; 24 river reaches in the Gila and Lower Colorado drainage basins of Arizona. Methods: We compared the abundance of three dominant woody riparian taxa (native Populus fremontii and Salix gooddingii, and introduced Tamarix) between river reaches that varied in stream-flow permanence (perennial vs. intermittent), presence or absence of an upstream flow-regulating dam, and presence or absence of municipal effluent as a stream water source. Results: Populus and Salix were the dominant pioneer trees along the reaches with perennial flow and a natural flood regime. In contrast, Tamarix had high abundance (patch area and basal area) along reaches with intermittent stream flows (caused by natural and cultural factors), as well as those with dam-regulated flows. Main conclusions: Stream-flow regimes are strong determinants of riparian vegetation structure, and hydrological alterations can drive dominance shifts to introduced species that have an adaptive suite of traits. Deep alluvial groundwater on intermittent rivers favours the deep-rooted, stress-adapted Tamarix over the shallower-rooted and more competitive Populus and Salix. On flow-regulated rivers, shifts in flood timing favour the reproductively opportunistic Tamarix over Populus and Salix, both of which have narrow germination windows. The prevailing hydrological conditions thus favour a new dominant pioneer species in the riparian corridors of the American Southwest. These results reaffirm the importance of reinstating stream-flow regimes (inclusive of groundwater flows) for re-establishing the native pioneer trees as the dominant forest type. ?? 2007 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Water regime of steam power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oesz, Janos

2011-01-01

The water regime of water-steam thermal power plants (secondary side of pressurized water reactors (PWR); fossil-fired thermal power plants - referred to as steam power plants) has changed in the past 30 years, due to a shift from water chemistry to water regime approach. The article summarizes measures (that have been realised by chemists of NPP Paks) on which the secondary side of NPP Paks has become a high purity water-steam power plant and by which the water chemistry stress corrosion risk of heat transfer tubes in the VVER-440 steam generators was minimized. The measures can also be applied to the water regime of fossil-fired thermal power plants with super- and subcritical steam pressure. Based on the reliability analogue of PWR steam generators, water regime can be defined as the harmony of construction, material(s) and water chemistry, which needs to be provided in not only the steam generators (boiler) but in each heat exchanger of steam power plant: - Construction determines the processes of flow, heat and mass transfer and their local inequalities; - Material(s) determines the minimal rate of general corrosion and the sensitivity for local corrosion damage; - Water chemistry influences the general corrosion of material(s) and the corrosion products transport, as well as the formation of local corrosion environment. (orig.)

Relativistic Spin-Orbit Heavy Atom on the Light Atom NMR Chemical Shifts: General Trends Across the Periodic Table Explained.

Science.gov (United States)

Vícha, Jan; Komorovsky, Stanislav; Repisky, Michal; Marek, Radek; Straka, Michal

2018-05-10

The importance of relativistic effects on the NMR parameters in heavy-atom (HA) compounds, particularly the SO-HALA (Spin-Orbit Heavy Atom on the Light Atom) effect on NMR chemical shifts, has been known for about 40 years. Yet, a general correlation between the electronic structure and SO-HALA effect has been missing. By analyzing 1 H NMR chemical shifts of the sixth-period hydrides (Cs-At), we discovered general electronic-structure principles and mechanisms that dictate the size and sign of the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts. In brief, partially occupied HA valence shells induce relativistic shielding at the light atom (LA) nuclei, while empty HA valence shells induce relativistic deshielding. In particular, the LA nucleus is relativistically shielded in 5d 2 -5d 8 and 6p 4 HA hydrides and deshielded in 4f 0 , 5d 0 , 6s 0 , and 6p 0 HA hydrides. This general and intuitive concept explains periodic trends in the 1 H NMR chemical shifts along the sixth-period hydrides (Cs-At) studied in this work. We present substantial evidence that the introduced principles have a general validity across the periodic table and can be extended to nonhydride LAs. The decades-old question of why compounds with occupied frontier π molecular orbitals (MOs) cause SO-HALA shielding at the LA nuclei, while the frontier σ MOs cause deshielding is answered. We further derive connection between the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts and Spin-Orbit-induced Electron Deformation Density (SO-EDD), a property that can be obtained easily from differential electron densities and can be represented graphically. SO-EDD provides an intuitive understanding of the SO-HALA effect in terms of the depletion/concentration of the electron density at LA nuclei caused by spin-orbit coupling due to HA in the presence of a magnetic field. Using an analogy between the SO-EDD concept and arguments from classic NMR theory, the complex question of the SO-HALA NMR chemical shifts becomes easily understandable for a wide

The NPT regime, present and future global security: an American view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, Sam.

1987-01-01

Although not perfect, an international non-proliferation regime as set out by the IAEA and Non-Proliferation Treaty is in existence. The history of the involvement of the United States in the development of this regime is mentioned as a background to explaining the current approach of the Reagan Administration to non-proliferation. Trends and challenges which may affect future global security are then identified and discussed. The author is optimistic about the future. (U.K.)

Anxiety about starting three-shift work among female workers: findings from the Female Shift Workers' Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kubo, Tatsuhiko; Maruyama, Takashi; Shirane, Kiyoyumi; Otomo, Hajime; Matsumoto, Tetsuro; Oyama, Ichiro

2008-03-01

In 1999, the Japanese Law on Equal Employment Opportunity and Conditions was amended and the previous prohibition of the assignment of female workers to night work was abolished. Subsequently, the number of female shift workers has been increasing in Japan, necessitating greater attention to the health care of this population. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the relationship between anxiety expressed about starting three-shift work and background characteristics among female workers who were being assigned to three-shift work for the first time. The subjects were 38 middle-aged female workers (age range: 44 to 59 years) who were working at a chemical plant. The women completed a self-administered questionnaire before starting three-shift work. Levels of anxiety about starting three-shift work were assessed by the question 'Do you feel anxious about starting three-shift work?' The available responses were: 'Very agree', 'Considerably agree', 'Rather agree', 'Slightly agree' and 'Not agree at all', and 63% of the subjects gave one of the first two answers, which were defined as indicating anxiety. We also acquired information regarding lifestyle and occupation for each subject, including the following factors: frequency of breakfast consumption, subjective sleep insufficiency, previous experience of similar work before beginning shift work, previous experience of two-shift work, and responsibility for household duties. In the study, we found a marginally statistically significant trend association between frequent breakfast consumption and anxiety about starting three-shift work (P(trend) = 0.09). Anxiety was also high among subjects with sleep disorders, especially those suffering from subjective sleep insufficiency (P = 0.08). Due to the small study population, these results should be interpreted with caution and confirmed by future studies.

Infrasound reveals transition to oscillatory discharge regime during lava fountaining: Implication for early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Ulivieri, Giacomo; Ripepe, Maurizio; Marchetti, Emanuele

2013-06-01

present the analysis of ~4 million infrasonic signals which include 39 episodes of lava fountains recorded at 5.5 km from the active vents. We show that each eruptive episode is characterized by a distinctive trend in the amplitude, waveform, and frequency content of the acoustic signals, reflecting different explosive levels. Lava fountain starts with an ~93 min long violent phase of acoustic transients at ~1.25 Hz repeating every 2-5 s. Infrasound suddenly evolves into a persistent low-frequency quasi-monochromatic pressure oscillation at ~0.4 Hz. We interpret this shift as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete Strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regime that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. We calculate that infrasonic transition can occur at a gas superficial velocity of ≤76 m/s and it can be used to define infrasonic-based thresholds for an efficient early warning system.

BGK-type models in strong reaction and kinetic chemical equilibrium regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monaco, R; Bianchi, M Pandolfi; Soares, A J

2005-01-01

A BGK-type procedure is applied to multi-component gases undergoing chemical reactions of bimolecular type. The relaxation process towards local Maxwellians, depending on mass and numerical densities of each species as well as common velocity and temperature, is investigated in two different cases with respect to chemical regimes. These cases are related to the strong reaction regime characterized by slow reactions, and to the kinetic chemical equilibrium regime where fast reactions take place. The consistency properties of both models are stated in detail. The trend to equilibrium is numerically tested and comparisons for the two regimes are performed within the hydrogen-air and carbon-oxygen reaction mechanism. In the spatial homogeneous case, it is also shown that the thermodynamical equilibrium of the models recovers satisfactorily the asymptotic equilibrium solutions to the reactive Euler equations

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gunderson, Lance; Cosens, Barbara; Chaffin, Brian C.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Fremier, Alexander K.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Kundis Craig, Robin; Gosnell, Hannah; Birge, Hannah E.; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.; Morrison, Ryan R.; Stone, Mark; Hamm, Joseph A.; Nemec, Kristine T.; Schlager, Edella; Llewellyn, Dagmar

2017-01-01

In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a) development and stabilization, (b) cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3) periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy) interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale social-ecological water systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lance Gunderson

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this article we summarize histories of nonlinear, complex interactions among societal, legal, and ecosystem dynamics in six North American water basins, as they respond to changing climate. These case studies were chosen to explore the conditions for emergence of adaptive governance in heavily regulated and developed social-ecological systems nested within a hierarchical governmental system. We summarize resilience assessments conducted in each system to provide a synthesis and reference by the other articles in this special feature. We also present a general framework used to evaluate the interactions between society and ecosystem regimes and the governance regimes chosen to mediate those interactions. The case studies show different ways that adaptive governance may be triggered, facilitated, or constrained by ecological and/or legal processes. The resilience assessments indicate that complex interactions among the governance and ecosystem components of these systems can produce different trajectories, which include patterns of (a development and stabilization, (b cycles of crisis and recovery, which includes lurches in adaptation and learning, and (3 periods of innovation, novelty, and transformation. Exploration of cross scale (Panarchy interactions among levels and sectors of government and society illustrate that they may constrain development trajectories, but may also provide stability during crisis or innovation at smaller scales; create crises, but may also facilitate recovery; and constrain system transformation, but may also provide windows of opportunity in which transformation, and the resources to accomplish it, may occur. The framework is the starting point for our exploration of how law might play a role in enhancing the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt to climate change.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

OpenAIRE

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-01-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the nort...

Rotating night shift work, sleep, and colorectal adenoma in women.

Science.gov (United States)

Devore, Elizabeth E; Massa, Jennifer; Papantoniou, Kyriaki; Schernhammer, Eva S; Wu, Kana; Zhang, Xuehong; Willett, Walter C; Fuchs, Charles S; Chan, Andrew T; Ogino, Shuji; Giovannucci, Edward; Wei, Esther K

2017-07-01

This study aims to investigate the associations of rotating night shift work history and sleep duration with risk of colorectal adenoma. We evaluated 56,275 cancer-free participants of the Nurses' Health Study II, who had their first colonoscopy or sigmoidoscopy between 1991 and 2011; rotating night shift work and sleep duration were reported by mailed questionnaire. Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) of colorectal adenoma, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), across categories of rotating night shift work history (none, 1-4, 5-9, and ≥10 years) and sleep duration (≤5, 6, 7, 8, and ≥9 h/day). We found no association between duration of rotating night shift work and occurrence of colorectal adenoma (p-trend across shift work categories = 0.5). Women with the longest durations of rotating night shift work (≥10 years) had a similar risk of adenoma compared to women without a history of rotating night shift work (multivariable-adjusted RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.83-1.11). Similarly, there were no associations of shorter or longer sleep durations with adenoma risk (p-trend = 0.2 across sleep durations of ≤5 through 7 h/day and p-trend = 0.5 across sleep durations of 7 through ≥9 h/day). Results were similar when we examined associations according to adenoma location and subtype. Our results do not support an association between rotating night shift work or sleep duration and risk of colorectal adenoma in women.

Stark shift and g-factor tuning in nanowires with Rashba effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alhaddad, Iman; Habanjar, Khulud; Sakr, M.R.

2015-01-01

We report on the Stark shift of the energy subbands and the possibility of tuning the g-factor of electrons in nanowires subjected to external magnetic field. The electric field is applied along the direction of quantum confinement. Our analysis is based on numerical and perturbation calculations in the weak Rashba regime. For in-plane magnetic fields, the Stark shift is rigid and depends on the square of the electric field. Such rigid shift results in a field independent g-factor. Perpendicular magnetic fields induce a similar Stark shift accompanied by a lateral displacement of the energy spectra that is linear in the electric field. In this case, the g-factor shows square dependence on weak electric fields that varies with the subband index. However, in strong electric fields, the g-factor becomes subband independent and varies linearly with the field. - Highlights: • Energy spectra of electrons in nanowires are calculated in the weak Rashba regime. • For in-plane magnetic field, the Stark shift is rigid and the g-factor cannot be tuned. • Perpendicular magnetic fields add lateral displacement to the Stark shift. • The g-factor can be tuned by external electric field in this case. • The tuning of the g-factor is linear and unique for all subbands at high fields

Stark shift and g-factor tuning in nanowires with Rashba effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alhaddad, Iman; Habanjar, Khulud [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, 5020 Riad El Solh, 11072809 - Beirut (Lebanon); Sakr, M.R., E-mail: msakr@alexu.edu.eg [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Beirut Arab University, P.O. Box 11, 5020 Riad El Solh, 11072809 - Beirut (Lebanon); Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Moharram Bek, Alexandria 21511 (Egypt)

2015-10-15

We report on the Stark shift of the energy subbands and the possibility of tuning the g-factor of electrons in nanowires subjected to external magnetic field. The electric field is applied along the direction of quantum confinement. Our analysis is based on numerical and perturbation calculations in the weak Rashba regime. For in-plane magnetic fields, the Stark shift is rigid and depends on the square of the electric field. Such rigid shift results in a field independent g-factor. Perpendicular magnetic fields induce a similar Stark shift accompanied by a lateral displacement of the energy spectra that is linear in the electric field. In this case, the g-factor shows square dependence on weak electric fields that varies with the subband index. However, in strong electric fields, the g-factor becomes subband independent and varies linearly with the field. - Highlights: • Energy spectra of electrons in nanowires are calculated in the weak Rashba regime. • For in-plane magnetic field, the Stark shift is rigid and the g-factor cannot be tuned. • Perpendicular magnetic fields add lateral displacement to the Stark shift. • The g-factor can be tuned by external electric field in this case. • The tuning of the g-factor is linear and unique for all subbands at high fields.

Flow Regime Classification and Hydrological Characterization: A Case Study of Ethiopian Rivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belete Berhanu

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The spatiotemporal variability of a stream flow due to the complex interaction of catchment attributes and rainfall induce complexity in hydrology. Researchers have been trying to address this complexity with a number of approaches; river flow regime is one of them. The flow regime can be quantified by means of hydrological indices characterizing five components: magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of flow. Similarly, this study aimed to understand the flow variability of Ethiopian Rivers using the observed daily flow data from 208 gauging stations in the country. With this process, the Hierarchical Ward Clustering method was implemented to group the streams into three flow regimes (1 ephemeral, (2 intermittent, and (3 perennial. Principal component analysis (PCA is also applied as the second multivariate analysis tool to identify dominant hydrological indices that cause the variability in the streams. The mean flow per unit catchment area (QmAR and Base flow index (BFI show an incremental trend with ephemeral, intermittent and perennial streams. Whereas the number of mean zero flow days ratio (ZFI and coefficient of variation (CV show a decreasing trend with ephemeral to perennial flow regimes. Finally, the streams in the three flow regimes were characterized with the mean and standard deviation of the hydrological variables and the shape, slope, and scale of the flow duration curve. Results of this study are the basis for further understanding of the ecohydrological processes of the river basins in Ethiopia.

Tempo of Diversification of Global Amphibians: One-Constant Rate, One-Continuous Shift or Multiple-Discrete Shifts?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Youhua Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this brief report, alternative time-varying diversification rate models were fitted onto the phylogeny of global amphibians by considering one-constant-rate (OCR, one-continuous-shift (OCS and multiplediscrete- shifts (MDS situations. The OCS diversification model was rejected by γ statistic (γ=-5.556, p⁄ 0.001, implying the existence of shifting diversification rates for global amphibian phylogeny. Through model selection, MDS diversification model outperformed OCS and OCR models using “laser” package under R environment. Moreover, MDS models, implemented using another R package “MEDUSA”, indicated that there were sixteen shifts over the internal nodes for amphibian phylogeny. Conclusively, both OCS and MDS models are recommended to compare so as to better quantify rate-shifting trends of species diversification. MDS diversification models should be preferential for large phylogenies using “MEDUSA” package in which any arbitrary numbers of shifts are allowed to model.

Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

2018-01-01

In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

Adiabatic perturbation theory for atoms and molecules in the low-frequency regime.

Science.gov (United States)

Martiskainen, Hanna; Moiseyev, Nimrod

2017-12-14

There is an increasing interest in the photoinduced dynamics in the low frequency, ω, regime. The multiphoton absorptions by molecules in strong laser fields depend on the polarization of the laser and on the molecular structure. The unique properties of the interaction of atoms and molecules with lasers in the low-frequency regime imply new concepts and directions in strong-field light-matter interactions. Here we represent a perturbational approach for the calculations of the quasi-energy spectrum in the low-frequency regime, which avoids the construction of the Floquet operator with extremely large number of Floquet channels. The zero-order Hamiltonian in our perturbational approach is the adiabatic Hamiltonian where the atoms/molecules are exposed to a dc electric field rather than to ac-field. This is in the spirit of the first step in the Corkum three-step model. The second-order perturbation correction terms are obtained when iℏω∂∂τ serves as a perturbation and τ is a dimensionless variable. The second-order adiabatic perturbation scheme is found to be an excellent approach for calculating the ac-field Floquet solutions in our test case studies of a simple one-dimensional time-periodic model Hamiltonian. It is straightforward to implement the perturbation approach presented here for calculating atomic and molecular energy shifts (positions) due to the interaction with low-frequency ac-fields using high-level electronic structure methods. This is enabled since standard quantum chemistry packages allow the calculations of atomic and molecular energy shifts due to the interaction with dc-fields. In addition to the shift of the energy positions, the energy widths (inverse lifetimes) can be obtained at the same level of theory. These energy shifts are functions of the laser parameters (low frequency, intensity, and polarization).

Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James J Elser

Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

Evaluation and Comparison of Extremal Hypothesis-Based Regime Methods

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Ishwar Joshi

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Regime channels are important for stable canal design and to determine river response to environmental changes, e.g., due to the construction of a dam, land use change, and climate shifts. A plethora of methods is available describing the hydraulic geometry of alluvial rivers in the regime. However, comparison of these methods using the same set of data seems lacking. In this study, we evaluate and compare four different extremal hypothesis-based regime methods, namely minimization of Froude number (MFN, maximum entropy and minimum energy dissipation rate (ME and MEDR, maximum flow efficiency (MFE, and Millar’s method, by dividing regime channel data into sand and gravel beds. The results show that for sand bed channels MFN gives a very high accuracy of prediction for regime channel width and depth. For gravel bed channels we find that MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ give a very high accuracy of prediction for width and depth. Therefore the notion that extremal hypotheses which do not contain bank stability criteria are inappropriate for use is shown false as both MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’ lack bank stability criteria. Also, we find that bank vegetation has significant influence in the prediction of hydraulic geometry by MFN and ‘ME and MEDR’.

Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Wei-Xing; Sornette, Didier

2007-07-01

We have recently introduced the “thermal optimal path” (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we generalize the TOP method by introducing a more general definition of distance which takes into account possible regime shifts between positive and negative correlations. This generalization to track possible changes of correlation signs is able to identify possible transitions from one convention (or consensus) to another. Numerical simulations on synthetic time series verify that the new TOP method performs as expected even in the presence of substantial noise. We then apply it to investigate changes of convention in the dependence structure between the historical volatilities of the USA inflation rate and economic growth rate. Several measures show that the new TOP method significantly outperforms standard cross-correlation methods.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Bolten, Alan B.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C.; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Crowder, Andrew; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A.; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M.; Foley, Allen M.; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R.; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A.; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M.; Boulon, Ralf H.; Collazo, Jaime; Wershoven, Robert; Hernández, Vicente Guzmán; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Metz, Tasha L.; Gordon, Amanda L.; Landry, Andre M.; Shaver, Donna J.; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Bethel, Thomas L.; Kenyon, Lory

2017-01-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles – hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta – exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – the strongest on record – combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -0.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = 0.74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjorndal, Karen A; Bolten, Alan B; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A G; Santos, Armando J B; Bortolon, Luis Felipe Wurdig; Meylan, Anne B; Meylan, Peter A; Gray, Jennifer; Hardy, Robert; Brost, Beth; Bresette, Michael; Gorham, Jonathan C; Connett, Stephen; Crouchley, Barbara Van Sciver; Dawson, Mike; Hayes, Deborah; Diez, Carlos E; van Dam, Robert P; Willis, Sue; Nava, Mabel; Hart, Kristen M; Cherkiss, Michael S; Crowder, Andrew G; Pollock, Clayton; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Muñoz Tenería, Fernando A; Herrera-Pavón, Roberto; Labrada-Martagón, Vanessa; Lorences, Armando; Negrete-Philippe, Ana; Lamont, Margaret M; Foley, Allen M; Bailey, Rhonda; Carthy, Raymond R; Scarpino, Russell; McMichael, Erin; Provancha, Jane A; Brooks, Annabelle; Jardim, Adriana; López-Mendilaharsu, Milagros; González-Paredes, Daniel; Estrades, Andrés; Fallabrino, Alejandro; Martínez-Souza, Gustavo; Vélez-Rubio, Gabriela M; Boulon, Ralf H; Collazo, Jaime A; Wershoven, Robert; Guzmán Hernández, Vicente; Stringell, Thomas B; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B; Broderick, Annette C; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta; Claydon, John A B; Metz, Tasha L; Gordon, Amanda L; Landry, Andre M; Shaver, Donna J; Blumenthal, Janice; Collyer, Lucy; Godley, Brendan J; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J; Campbell, Cathi L; Lagueux, Cynthia J; Bethel, Thomas L; Kenyon, Lory

2017-11-01

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the

Flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Hongsheng; Tan, Sichao; Zhuang, Nailiang; Lan, Shu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Flow and heat transfer experiment in transitional flow regime under rolling motion. • Increases of average friction factor and Nu were found. • Periodic breakdown of laminar flow contributes to the increase. • Nonlinear variation of pressure drop or Nu with Re also contributes to the increase. • Effect of critical Reynolds number shift was discussed. - Abstract: Flow and heat transfer characteristics under rolling motion are extremely important to thermohydraulic analysis of offshore nuclear reactors. An experimental study was conducted in a heated rectangular channel to investigate flow and heat transfer in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime under rolling motion. The results showed that the average friction factor and Nusselt number are higher than that of the corresponding steady flow as the flow rate fluctuates in transitional flow regime. Larger relative flow rate fluctuation was observed under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. In the same manner, larger increases of average friction factor and Nusselt number were achieved under larger rolling amplitude or higher rolling frequency. The increases were mainly caused by the flow rate fluctuation through periodic breakdown of laminar flow and development of turbulence in laminar–turbulent transitional flow regime. First, turbulence, which enhances the rate of momentum and energy exchange, occurs near the crest of flow rate wave even the flow is still in laminar flow regime according to the average Reynolds number. Second, as a result of rapid increases of the friction and heat transfer with Reynolds number in transitional flow regime, the increases of the friction and the heat transfer near the crest of flow rate wave are larger than the decreases of them near the trough of flow rate wave, which also contributes to increases of average friction and heat transfer. Additionally, the effect of critical Reynolds number shift under unsteady flow and heating

Two regimes of the Arctic's circulation from ocean models with ice and contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

Proshutinsky, A Y; Johnson, M

2001-01-01

A two-dimensional barotropic, coupled, ocean-ice model with a space resolution of 55.5 km and driven by atmospheric forces, river run-off, and sea-level slope between the Pacific and the Arctic Oceans, has been used to simulate the vertically averaged currents and ice drift in the Arctic Ocean. Results from 43 years of numerical simulations of water and ice motions demonstrate that two wind-driven circulation regimes are possible in the Arctic, a cyclonic and an anti-cyclonic circulation. These two regimes appear to alternate at 5-7 year intervals with the 10-15 year period. It is important to pollution studies to understand which circulation regime prevails at any time. It is anticipated that 1995 is a year with a cyclonic regime, and during this cyclonic phase and possibly during past cyclonic regimes as well, pollutants may reach the Alaskan shelf. The regime shifts demonstrated in this paper are fundamentally important to understanding the Arctic's general circulation and particularly important for estimating pollution transport.

A meta-level analysis of major trends in environmental health risk governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Runhaar, H.A.C.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Bree, L. van; Sluijs, J.P. van der

2010-01-01

Internationally but also within countries, large differences exist regarding how environmental health risks (EHRs) are governed. Despite these differences, at a meta-level some general trends can be discerned that may point to a convergence of EHR governance regimes. One, EHR governance regimes are

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics in Relation to Shifting Inundation and Fire Regimes: Disentangling Environmental Variability from Land Management Decisions in a Southern African Transboundary Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narcisa G. Pricope

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Increasing temperatures and wildfire incidence and decreasing precipitation and river runoff in southern Africa are predicted to have a variety of impacts on the ecology, structure, and function of semi-arid savannas, which provide innumerable livelihood resources for millions of people. This paper builds on previous research that documents change in inundation and fire regimes in the Chobe River Basin (CRB in Namibia and Botswana and proposes to demonstrate a methodology that can be applied to disentangle the effect of environmental variability from land management decisions on changing and ecologically sensitive savanna ecosystems in transboundary contexts. We characterized the temporal dynamics (1985–2010 of vegetation productivity for the CRB using proxies of vegetation productivity and examine the relative importance of shifts in flooding and fire patterns to vegetation dynamics and effects of the association of phases of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO on vegetation greenness. Our results indicate that vegetation in these semi-arid environments is highly responsive to climatic fluctuations and the long-term trend is one of increased but heterogeneous vegetation cover. The increased cover and heterogeneity during the growing season is especially noted in communally-managed areas of Botswana where long-term fire suppression has been instituted, in contrast to communal areas in Namibia where heterogeneity in vegetation cover is mostly increasing primarily outside of the growing season and may correspond to mosaic early dry season burns. Observed patterns of increased vegetation productivity and heterogeneity may relate to more frequent and intense burning and higher spatial variability in surface water availability from both precipitation and regional inundation patterns, with implications for global environmental change and adaptation in subsistence-based communities.

Macroeconomic regime and labor market: the Argentine experience of the past two decades

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Beccaria

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This document analyzes the interactions between macroeconomic regimes, employment generation and the dynamics of labor incomes in Argentina under two different macroeconomic regimes: the currency board regime of the 1990s and the high real exchange rate regime that followed. The former, characterized by a strong currency overvaluation, had a negative impact on economic activity and the labor market. However, the maintenance of a competitive real exchange rate does not by itself guarantee the sustained positive performance of the labor market, as it became evident in Argentina during the 2000s. Although the sizable depreciation of the peso –together with a positive international context- favored the expansion of output and employment, the initial concern of maintaining the real exchange rate at a competitive level was not continued with policies aimed to counteract the appreciation trend that appeared a few years after the implementation of the new regime.

Climate regime shifts in paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula: from the Preclassic to Classic period

Science.gov (United States)

Polanco Martínez, Josue M.; Medina-Elizalde, Martin; Burns, Stephen J.; Jiang, Xiuyang; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2015-04-01

It has been widely accepted by the paleoclimate and archaeology communities that extreme climate events (especially droughts) and past climate change played an important role in the cultural changes that occurred in at least some parts of the Maya Lowlands, from the Pre-Classic (2000 BC to 250 AD) to Post-Classic periods (1000 to 1521 AD) [1, 2]. In particular, a large number of studies suggest that the decline of the Maya civilization in the Terminal Classic Period was greatly influenced by prolonged severe drought events that probably triggered significant societal disruptions [1, 3, 4, 5]. Going further on these issues, the aim of this work is to detect climate regime shifts in several paleoclimate time series from the Yucatán Peninsula (México) that have been used as rainfall proxies [3, 5, 6, 7]. In order to extract information from the paleoclimate data studied, we have used a change point method [8] as implemented in the R package strucchange, as well as the RAMFIT method [9]. The preliminary results show for all the records analysed a prominent regime shift between 400 to 200 BCE (from a noticeable increase to a remarkable fall in precipitation), which is strongest in the recently obtained stalagmite (Itzamna) delta18-O precipitation record [7]. References [1] Gunn, J. D., Matheny, R. T., Folan, W. J., 2002. Climate-change studies in the Maya area. Ancient Mesoamerica, 13(01), 79-84. [2] Yaeger, J., Hodell, D. A., 2008. The collapse of Maya civilization: assessing the interaction of culture, climate, and environment. El Niño, Catastrophism, and Culture Change in Ancient America, 197-251. [3] Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., 1995. Possible role of climate in the collapse of Classic Maya civilization. Nature, 375(6530), 391-394. [4] Aimers, J., Hodell, D., 2011. Societal collapse: Drought and the Maya. Nature 479(7371), 44-45 (2011). [5] Medina-Elizalde, M., Rohling, E. J., 2012. Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction

Towards a green urban economy? Unravelling urban sustainability transitions from a regime perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mans, U.; Meerow, S.

2012-01-01

The current debate about sustainability transitions has embraced the multi-level perspective as a useful methodological tool for assessing the dynamics that are at play between landscape, regime and niche. As a consequence, the thinking about socio-technical transitions has gradually shifted in

Evaluating the traditional day and night shift in an acute care surgery fellowship: Is the swing shift a better choice?

Science.gov (United States)

Chestovich, Paul J; McNicoll, Christopher F; Ingalls, Nichole K; Kuhls, Deborah A; Fraser, Douglas R; Morrissey, Shawna L; Fildes, John J

2018-01-01

Fellowship trainees in acute care surgery require experience in the management of complex and operative trauma cases. Trauma center staffing usually follows standard 12-hour or 24-hour shifts, with resident and fellow trainees following a similar schedule. Although trauma admissions can be generally unpredictable, we analyzed temporal trends of trauma patient arrival times to determine the best time frame to maximize trainee experience during each day. We reviewed 10 years (2007-2016) of trauma registry data for blunt and penetrating trauma activations. Hourly volumetric trends were observed, and three specific events were chosen for detailed analysis: (1) trauma activation with Injury Severity Score (ISS) greater than 15, (2) laparotomy for trauma, and (3) thoracotomy for trauma. A retrospective shift log was created, which included day (7:00 AM to 7:00 PM), night (7:00 PM to 7:00 AM), and swing (noon to midnight) shifts. A swing shift was chosen because it captures the peak volume for all three events. Means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, and comparisons were made between shifts using the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test with Bonferroni correction, and p less than 0.05 considered significant. During the 10-year study period, 28,287 patients were treated at our trauma center. This included the evaluation and management of 7,874 patients with ISS greater than 15, performance of 1,766 laparotomies, and 392 thoracotomies for trauma. Swing shift was superior to both day and night shifts for ISS greater than 15 (p night shifts were superior to day shift for laparotomies (p day shift (p night shift (p = 0.031). Shifts with the highest yield of ISS greater than 15, laparotomies, and thoracotomies include night and swing shifts on Fridays and Saturdays. Projected experience of acute care surgery fellows in managing complex trauma patients increases with the integration of swing shifts into the schedule. Daily trauma volume follows a temporal pattern

Night shift work and stomach cancer risk in the MCC-Spain study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gyarmati, Georgina; Turner, Michelle C; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Espinosa, Ana; Papantoniou, Kyriaki; Alguacil, Juan; Costas, Laura; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Martin Sanchez, Vicente; Ardanaz, Eva; Moreno, Victor; Gómez-Acebo, Inés; Fernández-Tardon, Guillermo; Villanueva Ballester, Vicent; Capelo, Rocio; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Santibáñez, Miguel; Pollán, Marina; Aragonés, Nuria; Kogevinas, Manolis

2016-08-01

Night shift work has been classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based on experimental studies and limited evidence on human breast cancer risk. Evidence at other cancer sites is scarce. We evaluated the association between night shift work and stomach cancer risk in a population-based case-control study. A total of 374 incident stomach adenocarcinoma cases and 2481 population controls were included from the MCC-Spain study. Detailed data on lifetime night shift work were collected including permanent and rotating shifts, and their cumulative duration (years). Adjusted unconditional logistic regression models were used in analysis. A total of 25.7% of cases and 22.5% of controls reported ever being a night shift worker. There was a weak positive, non-significant association between ever having had worked for at least 1 year in permanent night shifts and stomach cancer risk compared to never having worked night shifts (OR=1.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 1.8). However, there was an inverse 'U' shaped relationship with cumulative duration of permanent night shifts, with the highest risk observed in the intermediate duration category (OR 10-20 years=2.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.6) (p for trend=0.19). There was no association with ever having had worked in rotating night shifts (OR=0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2) and no trend according to cumulative duration (p for trend=0.68). We found no clear evidence concerning an association between night shift work and stomach cancer risk. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Long-term demographic trends in a fire-suppressed mixed-conifer forest

Science.gov (United States)

Carrie R. Levine; Flora Krivak-Tetley; Natalie S. van Doorn; Jolie-Anne S. Ansley; John J. Battles

2016-01-01

In the western United States, forests are experiencing novel environmental conditions related to a changing climate and a suppression of the historical fire regime. Mixed-conifer forests, considered resilient to disturbance due to their heterogeneity in structure and composition, appear to be shifting to a more homogeneous state, but the timescale of these shifts is...

Critical Review--Outsourcing: A Paradigm Shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Kakabadse, Nada; Kakabadse, Andrew

2000-01-01

Discusses trends in outsourcing, provision of goods and services to an organization that were previously delivered in house. Addresses outsourcing in the public sector, advantages and disadvantages, implications for human resource development, and the shift to the new "psychological contract" between employers and employees. (Contains…

Effectiveness of the Twelve-Hour Shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinton, Robert D.

1983-01-01

Although labor unions traditionally have fought for shorter working hours, there have been recent reversals in this trend. The Pulp and Paperboard Division of Temple-Eastex Incorporated converted to a 12-hour shift and found that safety improved, productivity increased, and overtime decreased. (JOW)

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, D.; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-01-01

Roč. 624, May (2018), s. 24-33 ISSN 0048-9697 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-13750S; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015075 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : model selection * piecewise regression * regime shift * time series Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Marine biology, freshwater biology, limnology Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016

Labour force participation in Canada: Trends and shifts

OpenAIRE

Irene Ip

1998-01-01

A key determinant of the potential growth of an economy is the rate at which the labour force increases, which depends both on population growth and on changes in the participation rate. Cyclical factors related to the economic environment can play a significant role in affecting the participation rate, as can structural factors and demographic trends. From the mid-1970s to the end of the 1980s, the participation rate rose almost without interruption to a record high of 67.5 per cent. In cont...

Size-Dependent Shifts of Plasmon Resonance in Silver Nanoparticle Films Using Controlled Dissolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mogensen, Klaus Bo; Kneipp, Katrin

2014-01-01

to a transition from an extrinsic regime for the larger particles, where shifts of the plasmon frequency are related to changes in the dielectric environment, while the dielectric function of the metal is constant, to an intrinsic regime for the smaller particles. For this intrinsic regime, operative for small...... in a corrected electron density. The reported results have potential for developing nanosensors based on small nanoparticles below 5 nm in size by using their intrinsic response to adsorbed analytes. This detection scheme suggests a potential increase in the sensitivity of up to 3×, particularly when redox...

The Behavior of Interest Rate Differentials Under Shifting Exchange Rate Regimes: The Experience of Chile, Colombia and Israel

OpenAIRE

Carlos Ibarra

2005-01-01

This paper studies the dynamics of the interest rate differential across band and floating exchange rate regimes in Chile, Colombia and Israel, and in a benchmark group composed of Italy, Portugal and Spain. Significant differences in the interest rate-exchange rate link are found between the two groups, irrespective of regime. However, in all countries, except Italy, the interest differential ceased to behave anti-cyclically against output after the adoption of floating, possibly because of ...

The magnetic epoch-6 carbon shift: a change in the ocean's 13C/12C ratio 6.2 million years ago

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vincent, E.; Killingley, J.S.; Berger, W.H.

1980-01-01

Tropical Indian Ocean planktonic and benthic foraminifera have 13 C/ 12 C ratios which change abruptly within Magnetic Epoch 6 about 6.2 million years ago. All species analyzed in the Late Miocene section of DSDP Site 238 show a shift towards lighter values of delta 13 C by about 0.8 per thousand. The oxygen isotope signal indicates that the pre-shift period is climatically quiet while the post-shift period has strong fluctuations. The authors suggest that the shift reflects a sudden increase in the rate of supply of organic carbon from coastal lowlands and from shelves exposed by regression, as well as a change in deep circulation patterns and ocean fertility. The event marks the transition of the ocean-atmosphere system from a quiet Early and Middle Neogene climate regime toward a Late Neogene regime characterized by climatic amplifying mechanisms (albedo feedback, bottom water production) located around the northern North Atlantic. The beginning of this regime may have been strongly influenced by the isolation of the Mediterranean basin. (Auth.)

The shift of accounting models and accounting quality: the case of Norwegian GAAP

OpenAIRE

Stenheim, Tonny; Madsen, Dag Øivind

2017-01-01

This is an Open Access journal available from http://www.virtusinterpress.org This paper investigates the change in accounting quality w hen firms shift from a revenue - oriented historical cost accounting regime as Norwegian GAAP (NGAAP) to a balance - oriented fair value accounting regime as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Previous studies have demonstrated mixed effects o n the accounting quality upon IFRS adoption. One possible reason is that the investigated domest...

Status and trends of U.S. pulpwood market.

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

2009-01-01

Global trends in pulp, paper, and paperboard have deeply affected U.S. pulpwood markets since the late 1990s. Global trends included a shift of growth in paper and paperboard production from North America to Europe and Asia over the past decade. This trend was associated with generally slower growth in U.S. industrial production and displacement of growth in print...

Early Detection and Identification of Anomalies in Chemical Regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figedy, Stefan; Smiesko, Ivan

2011-01-01

This paper provides a brief information about the basic features of a newly developed diagnostic system for early detection and identification of anomalies incoming in the water chemistry regime of the primary and secondary circuit of VVER-440 reactor. This system, called SACHER (System of Analysis of CHEmical Regime) is being installed within the major modernization project at the NPP-V2 Bohunice in the Slovak Republic. System SACHER has been developed fully in MATLAB environment. The availability of prompt information about the chemical conditions of the primary and secondary circuit is very important to prevent the undue corrosion and deposit build-up. The typical chemical information systems that exist and work at the NPPs give the user values of the measured quantities together with their time trends and other derived values. It is then the experienced user's role to recognize the situation the monitored process is in and make the subsequent decisions and take the measures. The SACHER system, based on the computational intelligence techniques, inserts the elements of intelligence into the overall chemical information system. It has the modular structure with the following most important modules: normality module- its aim is to recognize that the process starts to deviate from the normal one and serves as the early warning to the staff to take the adequate measures, fuzzy identification module- its aim is to identify the anomaly on the basis of a set of fuzzy rules, time-prediction module- its aim is to predict the behavior/trend of selected chemical quantities 8 hours ahead in 15 min step from the moment of request, validation module- its aim is to validate the measured quantities, trend module- this module serves for showing the trends of the acquired quantities

Understanding regime shifts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heymann, Matthias; Nielsen, Kristian Hvidtfelt

Wind power was an important power source not only in the preindustrial era but also into the nineteenth and early twentieth century. In most regions by the mid twentieth century the ubiquitous windmill was quickly replaced by alternative power sources, mainly electricity. Efforts to revive wind...... in Denmark proved more successful than heavily funded efforts in the USA, Sweden or Germany. Within few years, Danish wind turbines dominated California wind parks and outclassed the turbines from other producers. Since the 1980s, all successful wind turbine producers copied basic features of “Danish Design...

The political use of psychiatry: A comparison between totalitarian regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Buoli, Massimiliano; Giannuli, Aldo Sabino

2017-03-01

After the end of Second World War, the recent experience of the Nazi horrors stimulated a debate about the political use of psychiatry. Over the years, the focus shifted on major dictatorships of the time and especially on Soviet Union. This article aims to provide a critical review of the ways in which psychiatry was used by totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. We summarized relevant literature about political use of psychiatry in totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, with particular focus on Fascism, Nazism, Argentina dictatorship, Soviet Union and China. One of the features that are common to most of the dictatorships is that the use of psychiatry has become more prominent when the regimes have had the need to make more acceptable the imprisonment of enemies in the eyes of the world. This for example happened in the Nazi regime when sterilization and killing of psychiatric patients was explained as a kind of euthanasia, or in the Soviet Union after the formal closure of the corrective labor camps and the slow resumption of relations with the capitalistic world, or in China to justify persecution of religious minorities and preserve economic relations with Western countries. Psychiatry has been variously used by totalitarian regimes as a means of political persecution and especially when it was necessary to make acceptable to public opinion the imprisonment of political opponents.

The influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on hydrological regime of rivers at the south of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. A. Burenia

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Despite a large number of publications covering various aspects of the influence of climatic factors on runoff, this direction in hydrological research acquires a new meaning in connection with the increase in anthropogenic pressure on river systems. In order to identify regional and local features of the hydrological regime of the rivers in Sayan mountain region, the spatial and temporal dynamics of runoff of the main rivers in the study area were analyzed; the analysis of river flow trends against the backdrop of climate change and forest management in the drain areas was performed. Studies have shown that the revealed trends in the annual runoff of the studied rivers differ in type and in magnitude. The hydrological regime of the rivers with the negative trend of annual runoff is determined by the general nature of the humidification of the territory, which overrides the influence of all other factors. Despite a general trend of decreasing precipitation, the positive trend of annual runoff is due to a decrease in evaporation in the drainage areas, which depends both on the temperature regime of the research area and on the anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation under logging impact. In spite of the considerable variability of annual river flow, trends in runoff coefficients for study rivers vary slightly, indicating the relative stability in water availability. This is due to cumulative effect of anthropogenic transformation of forest vegetation in the drainage areas, i.e. new felling, regeneration on logging sites and creating forest crops. Obtained results show that at the regional level in conditions of anthropogenic pressure on the forests in the drainage areas of medium and small rivers, the trends of climatic parameters, in particular precipitation, are offset by the forest harvesting and subsequent reforestation dynamics at clear cuts.

Evaluation of Five Different Regimes For the Treatment of Vitiligo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J S Pasricha

1989-01-01

Full Text Available Response of vitiligo patients to five different regimes was evaluated taking only those patients who had either static or progressively increasing lesions. Selection of the regimen depended upon the clinical characteristics of the disease. Each regime was tried for at least 4 months and if a patient didnot improve with one regime, he was shifted to another regime. A patient was considered to have improved, if the lesions started regimenting or the previously progressive lesions stopped increasing further. Regime I consisted of 150 mg levamisol orally on two consecutive days per week, given to 13 cases, it resulted in improvement in 7 (53.80/o. Regime II consisted of levamisole in the same dose combined with once a day topical massage with 0.1% fluocinolone acetonide acetate cream; it led to improvement in 27 (81.8% of the 33 cases. Regime III consisted of 3 mg betamethasone orally on alternate days combined with levamisole and topical fluocinolone; given to 32 cases, it was successful in 28 (87.50/o. A combination of 2 mg betamethasone orally alternating with 20 mg 8-methoxypsoralen and sun exposure (regime IV caused improvement in 17 (85% of the 20 cases. An oral mini pulse consisting of 5 mg betamethasone orally twice a week combined with 50 mg cyclophosphimide daily orally (regime V was successful in 20 (90.9% of the 22 cases, the remaining two cases showed unprovement when the dose ofbetamethasonc .was increased from 5 mg to 7.5 mg twice a week. Thus ultimately each one of the 91 patients responded to one or the other regime. The side effects were minimal and insignificant.The degree of improvement at the time of analysis was 100% in 23.3% cases, 50-100% in 44.2′Yo cases and less than 50% in 32.5%, after 4-14 months of treatment. It is felt that the results may be better after a longer follow-up although all patients are not expected to get complete repigmentation.

Analytical theory for the nuclear level shift of hadronic atoms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kudryavtsev, A.E.; Lisin, V.I.; Popov, V.S.

1982-01-01

The spectrum problem in the Coulomb potential distorted at small distances is considered. Nuclear shifts of 3-levels in p anti p and Σ - p atoms are calculated. The probabilities of radiative transitions from p-states to the shifted s-states in hadronic atom are also given. It is shown that the reconstruction of atomic levels switches to oscillation regime when absorption increases. The limits of applicability of the perturbation theory in terms of the scattering length for different values of absorption is discussed. An exactly solvable model, Coulomb plus Yamaguchi potential, is considered

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

2016-06-01

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods

Historical Regimes and Social Indicators of Resilience in an Urban System: the Case of Charleston, South Carolina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Regina Bures

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Employing the adaptive cycle and panarchy in perturbed urban systems can contribute to a better understanding of how these systems respond to broad-scale changes such as war and sea level rise. In this paper we apply a resilience perspective to examine regime shifts in Charleston, South Carolina from a historical perspective. We then look more closely at changes that occurred in Charleston in recent decades, including Hurricane Hugo, and the potential effects of these changes on resilience of the social-ecological system to future shocks. We close with a discussion combining social and ecological perspectives to examine future regime-shift scenarios in the Charleston case and suggest ways to better understand resilience in other coastal urban systems.

Shifting production trends point to more oil from OPEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ismail, I.A.H.

1994-01-01

Oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC regions has undergone four major phases of change in relation to oil price since 1960. Patterns visible in those phases offer an indication of world-wide production trends in the future. These four phases are described. Overall, demand for oil during 1960--93 has increased from around 20 million b/d in 1960 to as high as 65 million b/d in 1993. The consensus among energy analysts and forecasters is that this demand growth will continue. This will encourage OPEC and non OPEC producers to invest in the oil industry to meet future demand growth. However, since the resource base is larger in OPEC than in non-OPEC areas, and since the cost of developing these resources is lower in OPEC than outside OPEC, the future call on OPEC oil to meet growth in demand will undoubtedly be substantiated as production from the non-OPEC region diminishes or at best stagnates. The paper discusses OPEC production trends, non-OPEC production, natural gas liquids, future production scenarios, and future constraints on production

Oil and gas fiscal regimes of the western Canadian provinces

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-11-01

This report compares the fiscal regimes in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During 1985-1988, federal and provincial governments have made numerous fiscal changes, many in response to the drop in world oil prices. The new fiscal policies generally have reflected governments' willingness to forego revenues in an effort to aid the oil and gas industry, with certain exemptions. Since 1988, changes have reflected trends of consolidation and less government willingness to forego revenues. A federal large corporations capital tax has been introduced, the natural gas exploration holiday in Alberta expired, new oil royalties were introduced, and changes were made in fiscal regimes to accomodate horizontal drilling in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In this document, the existing corporate tax regime is described. A comparison of fiscal regimes must recognize the differing scale and nature of oil and gas operations among the 4 provinces, with Alberta accounting for 80-90% of Canada's oil and gas productions, while British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are much smaller producers. The document describes Crown royalties and incentives and freehold taxes for each type of fuel (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas byproducts, nonconventional oil). 8 figs

Dynamical resonance shift and unification of resonances in short-pulse laser-cluster interaction

Science.gov (United States)

Mahalik, S. S.; Kundu, M.

2018-06-01

Pronounced maximum absorption of laser light irradiating a rare-gas or metal cluster is widely expected during the linear resonance (LR) when Mie-plasma wavelength λM of electrons equals the laser wavelength λ . On the contrary, by performing molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of an argon cluster irradiated by short 5-fs (FWHM) laser pulses it is revealed that, for a given laser pulse energy and a cluster, at each peak intensity there exists a λ —shifted from the expected λM—that corresponds to a unified dynamical LR at which evolution of the cluster happens through very efficient unification of possible resonances in various stages, including (i) the LR in the initial time of plasma creation, (ii) the LR in the Coulomb expanding phase in the later time, and (iii) anharmonic resonance in the marginally overdense regime for a relatively longer pulse duration, leading to maximum laser absorption accompanied by maximum removal of electrons from cluster and also maximum allowed average charge states for the argon cluster. Increasing the laser intensity, the absorption maxima is found to shift to a higher wavelength in the band of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM than permanently staying at the expected λM. A naive rigid sphere model also corroborates the wavelength shift of the absorption peak as found in MD and unequivocally proves that maximum laser absorption in a cluster happens at a shifted λ in the marginally overdense regime of λ ≈(1 -1.5 ) λM instead of λM of LR. The present study is important for guiding an optimal condition laser-cluster interaction experiment in the short-pulse regime.

Travel and tourism trends

Science.gov (United States)

Deborah J. Chavez

1995-01-01

Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

Regime switching state-space models applied to psychological processes: handling missing data and making inferences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hamaker, E.L.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.

2012-01-01

Many psychological processes are characterized by recurrent shifts between distinct regimes or states. Examples that are considered in this paper are the switches between different states associated with premenstrual syndrome, hourly fluctuations in affect during a major depressive episode, and

Competing fiscal regimes and incentives in the developing world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meurs, P. van

1991-01-01

The new order in the former Communist countries, the growth of deregulation and trade liberalization, and the opening up of formerly closed countries to outside investment have worked to increase the available exploratory acreage for the oil and gas industry. It is estimated that the total amount of this acreage available in the 1990s is about twice what it was in the 1970s. This is accompanied by an apparent trend toward lower government takes and better terms as governments are forced to compete with one another to attract investment. A particular trend is noted among governments to improve terms and conditions for what are internationally called small fields (those in the 10-30 million bbl class) and in deep water or other marginal conditions. Factors to be taken into account in evaluating the potential profitability of an investment in a developing country are discussed. Various types of fiscal systems are considered, including regressive regimes involving royalties and rentals, progressive features such as sliding royalties and taxes which increase as the field becomes more profitable, hybrid systems, and specialty incentives. Examples are presented to illustrate analyses of different fiscal regimes and the economic risk involved in an oil production investment. 6 tabs

Pluton emplacement in a releasing bend in a transpressive regime: the arrozal granite in the Paraíba do Sul shear belt, Rio de Janeiro.

Science.gov (United States)

Nummer, Alexis R; Machado, Rômulo; Dehler, Nolan M

2007-06-01

The Arrozal Granite, situated in the southwestern region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, has a granitic to granodioritic composition. It contains a strong mylonitic foliation along its border, passing gradually to a well-developed magmatic foliation towards its center. Structural analysis indicates that the Arrozal Granite was emplaced along the Além-Paraíba Shear Zone in a dextral transpressive tectonic regime. A regional shift of the trend along this shear zone from NE-SW to E-W, observed in the area, is interpreted to be casually related to the creation of space for the emplacement of the granite. Our data indicate that releasing bends may have played an important role for space generation during the emplacement of the Arrozal Granite and other plutons.

Study of recent and future trends in place of death in Belgium using death certificate data: a shift from hospitals to care homes

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Deliens Luc

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Since most patients prefer out-of-hospital death, place of death can be considered an indicator of end-of-life care quality. The study of trends in place of death is necessary to examine causes of shifts, to evaluate efforts to alter place of death and develop future policies. This study aims to examine past trends and future projections of place of death. Methods Analysis of death certificates (decedents aged ≥ 1 year in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels Capital region 1998-2007. Trends in place of death were adjusted for cause of death, sociodemographic characteristics, environmental factors, numbers of hospital beds, and residential and skilled nursing beds in care homes. Future trends were based on age- and sex-specific mortality prognoses. Results Hospital deaths decreased from 55.1% to 51.7% and care home deaths rose from 18.3% to 22.6%. The percentage of home deaths remained stable. The odds of dying in a care home versus hospital increased steadily and was 1.65 (95%CI:1.53-1.78 in 2007 compared to 1998. This increase could be attributed to the replacement of residential beds by skilled nursing beds. Continuation of these trends would result in the more than doubling of deaths in care homes and a decrease in deaths at home and in hospital by 2040. Conclusions Additional end-of-life care resources in care homes largely explain the decrease in hospital deaths. Care homes will become the main locus of end-of-life care in the future. Governments should provide sufficient skilled nursing resources in care homes to fulfil the end-of-life care preferences and needs of patients.

Hydrological Responses to Changes in the Rainfall Regime are Less Pronounced in Forested Basins: an Analysis of Southern Brazil, 1975-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Chagas, V. B. P.; Chaffe, P. L. B.

2017-12-01

It is unknown to what extent the hydrological responses to changes in the rainfall regime vary across forested and non-forested landscapes. Southern Brazil is approximately 570000 km² and was naturally covered mostly by tropical and subtropical forests. In the last century, a large proportion of forests were replaced by agricultural activities. The rainfall regime has also changed substantially in the last decades. The annual rainfall, number and magnitude of extreme events, and number of non-rainy days have increased in most of the area. In this study, we investigated the changes in the regime of 142 streamflow gauges and 674 rainfall gauges in Southern Brazil, from 1975 to 2010. The changes in the regime were analyzed for forested basins (i.e., with more than 50% forest coverage) and non-forested basins (i.e., with less than 20% forest coverage). The area of the river basins ranged from 100 to 60000 km². We analyzed a total of six signatures that represent the regime, including annual averages, seasonality, floods, and droughts. The statistical trends of the signatures were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope. The results showed that the majority of basins with opposing signal trends for mean annual streamflow and rainfall are non-forested basins (i.e., basins with higher anthropogenic impacts). Forested basins had a lower correlation between trends in the streamflow and rainfall trends for the seasonality and the average duration of drought events. There was a lower variability in the annual maximum 1-day streamflow trends in the forested basins. Additionally, despite a decrease in the 31-day rainfall minima and an increase in the seasonality, in forested basins the 7-day streamflow minima increases were substantially larger than in non-forested basins. In summary, the forested basins were less responsive to the changes in the precipitation 1-day maxima, seasonality, number of dry days, and 31-day minima.

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent.

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Andreas Heinimann

Full Text Available Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing-based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes' dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation-the majority in the Americas (41% and Africa (37%-this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security

Flow regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kh'yuitt, G.

1980-01-01

An introduction into the problem of two-phase flows is presented. Flow regimes arizing in two-phase flows are described, and classification of these regimes is given. Structures of vertical and horizontal two-phase flows and a method of their identification using regime maps are considered. The limits of this method application are discussed. The flooding phenomena and phenomena of direction change (flow reversal) of the flow and interrelation of these phenomena as well as transitions from slug regime to churn one and from churn one to annular one in vertical flows are described. Problems of phase transitions and equilibrium are discussed. Flow regimes in tubes where evaporating liquid is running, are described [ru

Subchronic and chronic PCP treatment produces temporally distinct deficits in attentional set shifting and prepulse inhibition in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Egerton, Alice; Reid, Lee; McGregor, Sandie; Cochran, Susan M; Morris, Brian J; Pratt, Judith A

2008-05-01

We have previously demonstrated that subchronic (five daily administrations of 2.6 mg/kg PCP) and chronic intermittent administration of 2.6 mg/kg PCP to rats produces hypofrontality and other neurochemical changes akin to schizophrenia pathology (Cochran et al., Neuropsychopharmacology, 28:265-275, 2003). We sought to determine whether behavioral alterations related to discrete aspects of schizophrenia are also induced by these PCP treatment regimes. Following administration of vehicle or PCP according to the protocols described above, rats were assessed for attentional set shifting ability, prepulse inhibition (PPI), or social interaction and the locomotor response to a challenge dose of amphetamine. Ability to shift attentional set was impaired 72 h after the last PCP administration following the subchronic and chronic intermittent treatment regimes. PPI was disrupted after each acute administration of PCP in animals under the subchronic treatment regime. However, PPI deficits were not sustained 72 h after the last of five daily administrations. In subchronic and chronic PCP treated animals, no change was found in social interaction behavior, and there was little change in baseline or amphetamine-stimulated locomotor activity, employed as an indicator of dopaminergic hyperfunction. The temporally distinct behavioral effects of these PCP treatment regimes suggest that PPI deficits relate directly to acute NMDA receptor antagonism, whereas the more enduring set shifting deficits relate to the longer term consequences of NMDA receptor blockade. Therefore, these subchronic and chronic PCP treatment regimes produce hypofrontality (Cochran et al., Neuropsychopharmacology, 28:265-275, 2003) and associated prefrontal cortex-dependent deficits in behavioral flexibility which mirror core deficits in schizophrenia.

Night shift work and incident diabetes among U.S. black women

Science.gov (United States)

Vimalananda, Varsha G.; Palmer, Julie R.; Gerlovin, Hanna; Wise, Lauren A.; Rosenzweig, James L.; Rosenberg, Lynn; Narváez, Edward A. Ruiz

2015-01-01

Aims To assess shift work in relation to incident type 2 diabetes among African American women. Methods In the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS), an ongoing prospective cohort study, we followed 28,041 participants for incident diabetes during 2005-2013. They answered questions in 2005 about having worked the night shift. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards models. The basic multivariable model included age, time period, family history of diabetes, education, and neighborhood SES. In further models, we controlled for lifestyle factors and body mass index (BMI). Results Over the 8 years of follow-up, there were 1,786 incident diabetes cases. Relative to never having worked the night shift, HRs (95% CI) of diabetes were 1.17 (1.04, 1.31) for 1-2 years of night shift work, 1.23 (1.06, 1.41) for 3-9 years, and 1.42 (1.19, 1.70) for ≥ 10 years (P-trend shift work and type 2 diabetes remained after multivariable adjustment (P-trend = 0.02). The association did not vary by obesity status, but was stronger in women aged shift work were associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The association was only partially explained by lifestyle factors and BMI. A better understanding of the mechanisms by which shift work may affect risk of diabetes is needed in view of the high prevalence of shift work among U.S. workers. PMID:25586362

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

Science.gov (United States)

Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

2002-01-01

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

The performance of exchange rate regimes in three SADC countries: An overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernard N. Iyke

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the real exchange rate and economic growth dynamics in three low-income Southern African countries, namely: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, Malawi and Mozambique. Specifically, the paper investigates the nature of exchange rate regimes and the impact that they have on economic growth, as well as the movement of real exchange rates and real GDP from 1970—2010 in these countries. The paper identifies the following trends: Fixed exchange regimes were pursued from the 1960s until the late 1980s and early 1990s in these countries, which were growth-repressing; the countries pursued floating and managed-floating regimes from the 1990s to date, resulting in moderate-to-rapid economic growth. We conclude that liberalised exchange rates, which lead to undervalued currencies in these Southern African countries, were growth-enhancing.

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

Censoring the Press: A Barometer of Government Tolerance for Anti-regime Dissent under Authoritarian Rule

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elizabeth Ann Stein

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes that dissident leaders aiming to build mass opposition movements follow the mainstream press to help them gauge government tolerance for anti-government mass actions in repressive authoritarian regimes. Under conditions of censorship, media–state interactions serve as a barometer of the government’s disposition toward and capacity to impede public displays of dissent. Observing trends in coverage and the government’s reaction to this coverage helps activist leaders assess when it should be safest to plan anti-government mass actions, such as demonstrations, marches, or strikes. Using original data derived from coding content from the Brazilian newspaper Folha de São Paulo over the period of 1974–1982, I test whether opposition mass actions followed trends in taboo content and government treatment of the press during the period of political liberalization of Brazil’s military regime.

The collective Lamb shift in nuclear γ-ray superradiance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Röhlsberger, Ralf

2012-01-01

The electromagnetic transitions of Mössbauer nuclei provide almost ideal two-level systems to transfer quantum optical concepts into the regime of hard x-rays. If many identical atoms collectively interact with a resonant radiation field, one observes (quantum) optical properties that are strongly different from those of a single atom. The most prominent effect is the broadening of the resonance line known as collective enhancement, resulting from multiple scattering of real photons within the atomic ensemble. On the other hand, the exchange of virtual photons within the ensemble leads to a tiny energy shift of the resonance line, the collective Lamb shift, that remained experimentally elusive for a long time after its prediction. Here we illustrate how highly brilliant synchrotron radiation allows one to prepare superradiant states of excited Mössbauer nuclei, an important condition for observation of the collective Lamb shift.

Is a shift from research on individual medical error to research on health information technology underway? A 40-year analysis of publication trends in medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Erlewein, Daniel; Bruni, Tommaso; Gadebusch Bondio, Mariacarla

2018-06-07

In 1983, McIntyre and Popper underscored the need for more openness in dealing with errors in medicine. Since then, much has been written on individual medical errors. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 21st century, researchers and medical practitioners increasingly approached individual medical errors through health information technology. Hence, the question arises whether the attention of biomedical researchers shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology. We ran a study to determine publication trends concerning individual medical errors and health information technology in medical journals over the last 40 years. We used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) taxonomy in the database MEDLINE. Each year, we analyzed the percentage of relevant publications to the total number of publications in MEDLINE. The trends identified were tested for statistical significance. Our analysis showed that the percentage of publications dealing with individual medical errors increased from 1976 until the beginning of the 21st century but began to drop in 2003. Both the upward and the downward trends were statistically significant (P information technology doubled between 2003 and 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (P information technology in the USA and the UK. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Nonlinear focal shift beyond the geometrical focus in moderately focused acoustic beams.

Science.gov (United States)

Camarena, Francisco; Adrián-Martínez, Silvia; Jiménez, Noé; Sánchez-Morcillo, Víctor

2013-08-01

The phenomenon of the displacement of the position along the axis of the pressure, intensity, and radiation force maxima of focused acoustic beams under increasing driving voltages (nonlinear focal shift) is studied for the case of a moderately focused beam. The theoretical and experimental results show the existence of this shift along the axis when the initial pressure in the transducer increases until the acoustic field reaches the fully developed nonlinear regime of propagation. Experimental data show that at high amplitudes and for moderate focusing, the position of the on-axis pressure maximum and radiation force maximum can surpass the geometrical focal length. On the contrary, the on-axis pressure minimum approaches the transducer under increasing driving voltages, increasing the distance between the positive and negative peak pressure in the beam. These results are in agreement with numerical KZK model predictions and the existed data of other authors and can be explained according to the effect of self-refraction characteristic of the nonlinear regime of propagation.

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

2010-09-15

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

2010-01-01

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

Imprint of past environmental regimes on structure and succession of a deep-sea hydrothermal vent community.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullineaux, Lauren S; Micheli, Fiorenza; Peterson, Charles H; Lenihan, Hunter S; Markus, Nilauro

2009-08-01

Dramatic perturbations of ecological communities through rapid shifts in environmental regime do not always result in complete mortality of residents. Instead, legacy individuals may remain and influence the succession and composition of subsequent communities. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to investigate whether a legacy effect is detectable in communities experiencing an abrupt increase or decrease in hydrothermal fluid flux at deep-sea vents. Vent habitats are characterized by strong gradients in productivity and physico-chemical stressors, both of which tend to increase with increasing vent fluid flux. In our experiments, many species survived transplantation from cool (water temperatures theory developed in the rocky intertidal that predicts the predominance of physical control at the high-stress end of an environmental gradient. Prediction of successional transitions in vents and other habitats experiencing regime shifts in which remnant species may survive must take into account the possible influence of historical effects.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Recent shifts in Himalayan vegetation activity trends in response to climatic change and environmental drivers

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, N. B.; Mainali, K. P.

2016-12-01

Climatic changes along with anthropogenic disturbances are causing dramatic ecological impacts in mid to high latitude mountain vegetation including in the Himalayas which are ecologically sensitive environments. Given the challenges associated with in situ vegetation monitoring in the Himalayas, remote sensing based quantification of vegetation dynamics can provide essential ecological information on changes in vegetation activity that may consist of alternative sequence of greening and/or browning periods. This study utilized a trend break analysis procedure for detection of monotonic as well as abrupt (either interruption or reversal) trend changes in smoothed normalized difference vegetation index satellite time-series data over the Himalayas. Overall, trend breaks in vegetation greenness showed high spatio-temporal variability in distribution considering elevation, ecoregion and land cover/use stratifications. Interrupted greening was spatially most dominant in all Himalayan ecoregions followed by abrupt browning. Areas showing trend reversal and monotonic trends appeared minority. Trend type distribution was strongly dependent on elevation as majority of greening (with or without interruption) occurred at lower elevation areas at higher elevation were dominantly. Ecoregion based stratification of trend types highlighted some exception to this elevational dependence as high altitude ecoregions of western Himalayas showed significantly less browning compared to the ecoregions in eastern Himalaya. Land cover/use based analysis of trend distribution showed that interrupted greening was most dominant in closed needleleafed forest following by rainfed cropland and mosaic croplands while interrupted browning most dominant in closed to open herbaceous vegetation found at higher elevation areas followed by closed needleleafed forest and closed to open broad leafed evergreen forests. Spatial analysis of trend break timing showed that for majority of areas experiencing

Observation of the Phononic Lamb Shift with a Synthetic Vacuum

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T. Rentrop

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In contrast to classical empty space, the quantum vacuum fundamentally alters the properties of embedded particles. This paradigm shift allows one to explain the discovery of the celebrated Lamb shift in the spectrum of the hydrogen atom. Here, we engineer a synthetic vacuum, building on the unique properties of ultracold atomic gas mixtures, offering the ability to switch between empty space and quantum vacuum. Using high-precision spectroscopy, we observe the phononic Lamb shift, an intriguing many-body effect originally conjectured in the context of solid-state physics. We find good agreement with theoretical predictions based on the Fröhlich model. Our observations establish this experimental platform as a new tool for precision benchmarking of open theoretical challenges, especially in the regime of strong coupling between the particles and the quantum vacuum.

Legislative proposal for a controlled foreign companies regime in Poland from an international perspective

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Magdalena Małgorzata Hybka

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Tackling corporate profit shifting requires appropriate anti-avoidance measures. This article reviews one of these measures, a controlled foreign companies (corporations regime. It has been implemented in many countries, in some of them as early as the 1960s. The need for its introduction has also been expressed on many occasions by the Polish legislator. The article is composed of three sections. The first considers the reasons for the implementation of the analyzed regime. The second describes the controlled foreign corporation legislation in the USA and selected European Union member states. The last section is devoted to a bill on taxing controlled foreign companies in Poland.

Towards the problem ChAES alienation zone residing conditions for watch-shift personal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akimenko, V.Ya.; Yanko, N.M.; Semashko, P.V.; Yarygin, A.V.

1994-01-01

The article deals with some results of hygienic study concerning watch-shift workers residing condition in the ChAES 30-km zone. The evaluation is given for residing environment prioritative living parameters, air ventilation, hostels inhabiting conditions, the acoustic regime. Some indoor environment aerosol pollution levels different kind domestic activity a revealed. Electrostatic air cleaning installing as devices of radioactive smalldispers aerosol control a studied. Some tasks of further research are substantiated in order of watch-shift workers residing environment optimization in the alienation zone

The Shifting Discourses of Educational Leadership: International Trends and Scotland's Response

Science.gov (United States)

Torrance, Deirdre; Humes, Walter

2015-01-01

Increasing emphasis has been placed on leadership within educational theory, policy and practice. Drawing on a wide range of academic literature and policy documents, this paper explores how the discourse of leadership has shifted and for what purposes. The authors are critical of the lack of conceptual underpinning for that discourse, evident…

Operator alertness and performance on 8-hour and 12-hour work shifts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baker, T.L.; Campbell, S.S.; Dawson, D.; Moore-Ede, M.

1989-01-01

Recently, much attention has been paid to the alertness and performance problems of rotational shiftworkers in the nuclear power industry. Growing awareness of higher rates of human errors and accidents on night shifts and reports of operations personnel falling asleep on the job have contributed to the heightened interest in this subject. The industry is now considering the effects of different shift rotation systems, including evaluation of the most recent of industry trends in shift scheduling-schedules that include 12 hour work shifts. Surveys show that within the past 5 years about 20% of commercially operational nuclear power plants have instituted schedules that use only 12 hour shifts, or schedules using a combination of 8-hour and 12-hour shifts. Many more plants routinely use 12-hour work shifts during plant outages and refueling operations. In response to this growing trend, the NRC has funded research which is a first attempt to compare alertness, operator performance, and sleep-wake patterns in subjects working simulated 8-hour and 12-hour shifts at the Human Alertness Research Center (HARC), located at the Institute of Circadian Physiology in Boston, MA. This paper will describe in greater detail the design of the study, measurement techniques for alertness and sleep, work routine, work task performance measures, and cognitive performance test protocols. It will review the role of circadian factors in human alertness and performance, and discuss previous research findings in this area. It will discuss other variables that are known to influence human alertness in the workplace, such as caffeine, alcohol, and working environment. The physiological basis for shift worker sleep problems will be explained in the context of the ongoing research project at HARC. Finally, the paper presents previous research on shift work and fatigue which may be relevant to a comparison of 8-hour and 12-hour shifts

Transformative Shifts in Art History Teaching: The Impact of Standards-Based Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ormond, Barbara

2011-01-01

This article examines pedagogical shifts in art history teaching that have developed as a response to the implementation of a standards-based assessment regime. The specific characteristics of art history standards-based assessment in the context of New Zealand secondary schools are explained to demonstrate how an exacting form of assessment has…

Eight- and twelve-hour shifts in Austrian rail traffic controllers: a psychophysiological comparison

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K. WOLFGANG KALLUS

2009-09-01

Full Text Available The present study compared a 12-hour and an 8-hour shift system in 18 Austrian rail traffic controllers. To gain objective indicators for arousal and fatigue induced by the whole workrest sequence, we recorded heart rate during the last night shift, in addition to subjective measures that included physical symptoms. A higher increase of monotony, fatigue and saturation emerged during the 8-hour compared to the 12-hour regime, together with a heart rate decrease during the last 8-hour night shift. In line with other researchers, we conclude that flexible working conditions in specific occupational groups may compensate for disadvantages of prolonged working periods, giving way to advantages of longer shifts such as longer pauses and extra days off for social and other personal activities.

Perspective on the northwestward shift of autumn tropical cyclogenesis locations over the western North Pacific from shifting ENSO

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Hu, Chundi; Zhang, Chengyang; Yang, Song; Chen, Dake; He, Shengping

2017-11-01

During the recent decades of satellite era, more tropical cyclogenesis locations (TCLs) were observed over the northwestern part of the western North Pacific (WNP), relative to the southeastern part, during the boreal autumn. This increase in TCLs over the northwestern WNP is largely attributed to the synergy of shifting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 1998 Pacific climate regime shift. Both central Pacific (CP) La Niña and CP El Niño have occurred more frequently since 1998, with only one eastern Pacific El Niño observed in autumn 2015. The change in the mean longitude of TCLs is closely linked to the ENSO diversity, whereas the change in the mean latitude is dominated by the warming of the WNP induced by an interdecadal tendency of CP La Niña-like events. The physical mechanisms responsible for this shifting ENSO-TCL linkage can be potentially explained by the tacit-and-mutual configurations between tropical upper-tropospheric trough and monsoon trough, on both interannual and interdecadal timescales, which is mainly due to the ENSO-related large-scale environment changes in ocean and atmosphere that modulate the WNP TCL.

Night shift work and lung cancer risk among female textile workers in Shanghai, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwon, Paul; Lundin, Jessica; Li, Wenjin; Ray, Roberta; Littell, Christopher; Gao, Daoli; Thomas, David B; Checkoway, Harvey

2015-01-01

In 2007, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified shift work that involves circadian disruption as a probable human carcinogen. Suppression of the anti-neoplastic hormone, melatonin, is a presumed mechanism of action. We conducted a case-cohort study nested within a cohort of 267,400 female textile workers in Shanghai, China. Newly diagnosed lung cancer cases (n = 1451) identified during the study period (1989-2006) were compared with an age-stratified subcohort (n = 3040). Adjusting for age, smoking, parity, and endotoxin exposure, relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs)] were estimated by Cox regression modeling to assess associations with cumulative years and nights of rotating shift work. Results did not consistently reveal any increased risk of lung cancer among rotating shift work or statistically significant trends for both cumulative years (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.02; P(trend) = 0.294) and nights (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.00; P(trend) = 0.415). Further analyses imposing 10- and 20-year lag times for disease latency also revealed similar results. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, rotating nighttime shift work appears to be associated with a relatively reduced lung cancer risk although the magnitude of the effect was modest and not statistically significant.

Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND

OpenAIRE

Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R.

2017-01-01

Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibri...

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Pluton emplacement in a releasing bend in a transpressive regime: the arrozal granite in the Paraíba do Sul shear belt, Rio de Janeiro

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Alexis R. Nummer

2007-06-01

Full Text Available The Arrozal Granite, situated in the southwestern region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, has a granitic to granodioritic composition. It contains a strong mylonitic foliation along its border, passing gradually to a well-developed magmatic foliation towards its center. Structural analysis indicates that the Arrozal Granite was emplaced along the Além-Paraíba Shear Zone in a dextral transpressive tectonic regime. A regional shift of the trend along this shear zone from NE-SW to E-W, observed in the area, is interpreted to be casually related to the creation of space for the emplacement of the granite. Our data indicate that releasing bends may have played an important role for space generation during the emplacement of the Arrozal Granite and other plutons.O Granito Arrozal ocorre na porção sudoeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e associa-se à Zona de Cisalhamento de Além-Paraíba. Possui composição granítica a granodiorítica eexibe predomínio de estruturas magmáticas na parte central, e estruturas de alto strain (miloníticas nas bordas. Os dados estruturais sugerem colocação em segmentos extensionais(releasing bends associados a uma tectônica transcorrentedestral, sob regime transpressivo. A forte mudança do trend estrutural desta zona de cisalhamento na região, passando de NE-SW para próximo de E-W, criou condições para geração de espaços que favoreceram a colocação do Granito Arrozal, além de outros granitos associados à referida zona.

A two-phase flow regime map for a MAPLE-type nuclear research reactor fuel channel: Effect of hexagonal finned bundle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvel, G.D.; Chang, J.S.

1997-01-01

A two-phase flow regime map is developed experimentally and theoretically for a vertical hexagonal flow channel with and without a 36-finned rod hexagonal bundle. This type of flow channel is of interest to MAPLE-type nuclear research reactors. The flow regime maps are determined by visual observations and observation of waveforms shown by a capacitance-type void fraction meter. The experimental results show that the inclusion of the finned hexagonal bundle shifts the flow regime transition boundaries toward higher water flow rates. Existing flow regime maps based on pipe flow require slight modifications when applied to the hexagonal flow channel with and without a MAPLE-type finned hexagonal bundle. The proposed theoretical model agrees well with experimental results

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

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C.-E. Park

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Flow regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liles, D.R.

1982-01-01

Internal boundaries in multiphase flow greatly complicate fluid-dynamic and heat-transfer descriptions. Different flow regimes or topological configurations can have radically dissimilar interfacial and wall mass, momentum, and energy exchanges. To model the flow dynamics properly requires estimates of these rates. In this paper the common flow regimes for gas-liquid systems are defined and the techniques used to estimate the extent of a particular regime are described. Also, the current computer-code procedures are delineated and introduce a potentially better method is introduced

Late Holocene influence of societies on the fire regime in southern Québec temperate forests

Science.gov (United States)

Blarquez, Olivier; Talbot, Julie; Paillard, Jordan; Lapointe-Elmrabti, Lyna; Pelletier, Nicolas; Gates St-Pierre, Christian

2018-01-01

Climatic change that occurred during the Holocene is often recognized as the main factor for explaining fire dynamics, while the influence of human societies is less apparent. In eastern North America, human influence on fire regime before European settlement has been debated, mainly because of a paucity of sites and paleoecological techniques that can distinguish human influences unequivocally from climate. We applied a multiproxy analysis to a 12 000-year-old paleoecological sequence from a site in the vicinity of known settlement areas that were occupied over more than 7000 years. From this analysis, we were able detect the human influence on the fire regime before and after European colonization. Fire occurrence and fire return intervals (FRI) were based on analysis of sedimentary charcoals at a high temporal and spatial resolution. Fire occurrence was then compared to vegetation that was reconstructed from pollen analysis, from population densities deduced from archeological site dating, from demographic and technological models, and from climate reconstructed using general circulation models and ice-core isotopes. Holocene mean FRI was short (164 ± 134 years) and associated with small charcoal peaks that were likely indicative of surface fires affecting small areas. After 1500 BP, large vegetation changes and human demographic growth that was demonstrated through increased settlement evidence likely caused the observed FRI lengthening (301 ± 201 years), which occurred without significant changes in climate. Permanent settlement by Europeans in the area around 1800 AD was followed by a substantial demographic increase, leading to the establishment of Gatineau, Hull and Ottawa. This trend was accompanied by a shift in the charcoal record toward anthropogenic particles that were reflective of fossil fuel burning and an apparent absence of wood charcoal that would be indicative of complete fire suppression. An anthropogenic fire regime that was characterized by

Rotating Night-Shift Work and the Risk of Breast Cancer in the Nurses' Health Studies.

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Wegrzyn, Lani R; Tamimi, Rulla M; Rosner, Bernard A; Brown, Susan B; Stevens, Richard G; Eliassen, A Heather; Laden, Francine; Willett, Walter C; Hankinson, Susan E; Schernhammer, Eva S

2017-09-01

In 2007, the International Agency for Research on Cancer declared shift work that involved circadian disruption to be a "probable" carcinogen (group 2A), noting that human evidence was limited. Using data from 2 prospective cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study (1988-2012; n = 78,516) and Nurses' Health Study II (1989-2013; n = 114,559), we examined associations between rotating night-shift work and breast cancer risk. In the 2 cohorts, there were a total of 9,541 incident invasive breast malignancies and 24 years of follow-up. In the Nurses' Health Study, women with 30 years or more of shift work did not have a higher risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.77, 1.17; P for trend = 0.63) compared with those who never did shift work, although follow-up occurred primarily after retirement from shift work. Among participants in the Nurses' Health Study II, who were younger than participants in the other cohort, the risk of breast cancer was significantly higher in women with 20 years or more of shift work at baseline, reflecting young-adult exposure (HR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.23, 3.73; P for trend = 0.23), and was marginally significantly higher for women with 20 years or more of cumulative shift work when we used updated exposure information (HR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.97; P for trend = 0.74). In conclusion, long-term rotating night-shift work was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer, particularly among women who performed shift work during young adulthood. Further studies should explore the role of shift work timing on breast cancer risk. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Global Trends in Workplace Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lung-Sheng; Lai, Chun-Chin

2012-01-01

The paradigm of human resource development has shifted to workplace learning and performance. Workplace can be an organization, an office, a kitchen, a shop, a farm, a website, even a home. Workplace learning is a dynamic process to solve workplace problems through learning. An identification of global trends of workplace learning can help us to…

100,000-year-long terrestrial record of millennial-scale linkage between eastern North American mid-latitude paleovegetation shifts and Greenland ice-core oxygen isotope trends

Science.gov (United States)

Litwin, Ronald J.; Smoot, Joseph P.; Pavich, Milan J.; Markewich, Helaine Walsh; Brook, George; Durika, Nancy J.

2013-01-01

We document frequent, rapid, strong, millennial-scale paleovegetation shifts throughout the late Pleistocene, within a 100,000+ yr interval (~ 115–15 ka) of terrestrial sediments from the mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of North America. High-resolution analyses of fossil pollen from one core locality revealed a continuously shifting sequence of thermally dependent forest assemblages, ranging between two endmembers: subtropical oak-tupelo-bald cypress-gum forest and high boreal spruce-pine forest. Sedimentary textural evidence indicates fluvial, paludal, and loess deposition, and paleosol formation, representing sequential freshwater to subaerial environments in which this record was deposited. Its total age"depth model, based on radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence ages, ranges from terrestrial oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 6 to 1. The particular core sub-interval presented here is correlative in trend and timing to that portion of the oxygen isotope sequence common among several Greenland ice cores: interstades GI2 to GI24 (≈ OIS2–5 d). This site thus provides the first evidence for an essentially complete series of "Dansgaard"Oeschger" climate events in the MAR. These data reveal that the ~ 100,000 yr preceding the Late Glacial and Holocene in the MAR of North America were characterized by frequently and dynamically changing climate states, and by vegetation shifts that closely tracked the Greenland paleoclimate sequence.

Mercantilist Development in Russia: The Legitimacy of State Power, State Identity, and the Energy Charter Regime (1990--2010)

Science.gov (United States)

Bruynooghe, Daniel; Wynn, Henry P.

This dissertation investigates the creation, adaptation, and demise of international regimes. Specifically, I ask why international regimes sometimes fail to fulfill their original purpose. Empirically, I examine the evolution and eventual failure of the Energy Charter (ECH), a multilateral regime that governs the Eurasian energy economy. Modeled after the European Steel and Coal Community, the original goal of the regime was to capitalize on economic complementarities in energy to integrate Gorbachev's reforming USSR (later Russia) with Europe and promote pan-European cooperation and peace. By 2010, integration had failed, and the regime itself had become a source of conflict. To understand this outcome, I focus on the foreign energy policy of Russia, a central state within the ECH, which actively participated in designing the regime in the 1990s but two decades later decided that it was no longer in its interest. Using data collected from interviews and archival searches during field research in Russia, Brussels, and Paris, I find that under President Yeltsin, low domestic sovereignty meant the state could not integrate key domestic players into ECH policy-making. This led Russia to conclude a bargain that it could not implement domestically. Under President Putin, high domestic sovereignty meant the state had sufficient capacity to corral these recalcitrant actors. However, the new policy that emerged compelled Russia to attempt to modify the ECH in ways that violated previously accepted norms, thereby alienating its European partners and undermining the regime. This study supports Hegemonic Stability theory which suggests that we can expect regime failure after major shifts in the distribution of power produce changes in the interests and policies of key states. I extend this finding by showing that Russian state power increased due to changes in elite conceptions about the legitimacy of state power. I demonstrate this by using over time comparisons between

International arbitration and its exclusion from the Brussels regime

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Hamed Alavi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The Brussels regime, which regulates the matters of transnational litigation excludes arbitration from its scope. Upon formation of the Brussels regime the existing instruments concerning arbitration - the United Nations Convention on Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards and the 1961 European Convention on International Commercial Arbitration - were believed to be sufficient. The original Brussels Convention 1968 on recognition and enforcement of judgments delivered in the courts of the EU Member States expressly provided for the exclusion of arbitration. The following Brussels I Regulation followed the trend and reinforced the exclusion of arbitration from their material scopes. The rationale for doing so was primarily the prevention of parallel proceedings and irreconcilable judgments. The arbitration exclusion from the Brussels regime has caused a fair amount of confusion, especially regarding the extent and limits of the exclusion. That is, whether the arbitration agreement, the arbitral award and its consequences are covered by the exclusion or they may fall under the scope of the Brussels regulation if they constitute only an incidental question to the main cause of action? The confusion was illustrated in the ECJ judgment West Tankers, which generated negative feedback from the arbitration community and indicated the need for reform. The recently adopted Recast Regulation took it upon itself to clarify the relationship between arbitration and the EU regime of transnational litigation. The exclusion is reinforced ye again and its boundaries are specified in the Preamble. However, whether or not the concerns about the extent and objectives of arbitration exclusion have been at present eliminated, remains to be seen.

Post-Cold War Effects on the Non-proliferation Regime

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kessler, Carol E.

2006-03-31

This journal article analyzes nuclear and security related events of the past 15 years to illustrate the changes in geopolitics and the shifting balance of power following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reflection upon these events establishes the context for strengthening the nonproliferation regime. The author concludes that post Soviet communism hastened the movement towards a unipolar system with hegemonic power vested in the United States, and this geopolitical imbalance fostered insecurities and greater threats. Multilateral cooperation and commitment from the US would help this leader achieve its goal of security through increased global confidence in the international system.

Transforming Water Supply Regimes in India: Do Public-Private Partnerships Have a Role to Play?

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Govind Gopakumar

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Public-private partnerships (PPP are an important governance strategy that has recently emerged as a solution to enhance the access of marginalised residents to urban infrastructures. With the inception of neo-liberal economic reforms in India, in Indian cities too PPP has emerged as an innovative approach to expand coverage of water supply and sanitation infrastructures. However, there has been little study of the dynamics of partnership efforts in different urban contexts: What role do they play in transforming existing infrastructure regimes? Do reform strategies such as partnerships result in increased privatisation or do they make the governance of infrastructures more participative? Reviewing some of the recent literature on urban political analysis, this article develops the concept of water supply regime to describe the context of water provision in three metropolitan cities in India. To further our understanding of the role of PPP within regimes, this article sketches five cases of water supply and sanitation partnerships located within these three metropolitan cities. From these empirical studies, the article arrives at the conclusion that while PPP are always products of the regime-context they are inserted within, quite often strategic actors in the partnership use the PPP to further their interests by initiating a shift in the regime pathway. This leads us to conclude that PPPs do play a role in making water supply regimes more participative but that depends on the nature of the regime as well as the actions of partners.

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, Carolyn A; Armitage, Anna R

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010-2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Nutrient enrichment shifts mangrove height distribution: Implications for coastal woody encroachment

Science.gov (United States)

Armitage, Anna R.

2018-01-01

Global changes, such as increased temperatures and elevated CO2, are driving shifts in plant species distribution and dominance, like woody plant encroachment into grasslands. Local factors within these ecotones can influence the rate of regime shifts. Woody encroachment is occurring worldwide, though there has been limited research within coastal systems, where mangrove (woody shrub/tree) stands are expanding into salt marsh areas. Because coastal systems are exposed to various degrees of nutrient input, we investigated how nutrient enrichment may locally impact mangrove stand expansion and salt marsh displacement over time. We fertilized naturally co-occurring Avicennia germinans (black mangrove) and Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) stands in Port Aransas, TX, an area experiencing mangrove encroachment within the Northern Gulf of Mexico mangrove-marsh ecotone. After four growing seasons (2010–2013) of continuous fertilization, Avicennia was more positively influenced by nutrient enrichment than Spartina. Most notably, fertilized plots had a higher density of taller (> 0.5 m) mangroves and mangrove maximum height was 46% taller than in control plots. Fertilization may promote an increase in mangrove stand expansion within the mangrove-marsh ecotone by shifting Avicennia height distribution. Avicennia individuals, which reach certain species-specific height thresholds, have reduced negative neighbor effects and have higher resilience to freezing temperatures, which may increase mangrove competitive advantage over marsh grass. Therefore, we propose that nutrient enrichment, which augments mangrove height, could act locally as a positive feedback to mangrove encroachment, by reducing mangrove growth suppression factors, thereby accelerating the rates of increased mangrove coverage and subsequent marsh displacement. Areas within the mangrove-marsh ecotone with high anthropogenic nutrient input may be at increased risk of a regime shift from grass to woody

Transition from weak wave turbulence regime to solitonic regime

Science.gov (United States)

Hassani, Roumaissa; Mordant, Nicolas

2017-11-01

The Weak Turbulence Theory (WTT) is a statistical theory describing the interaction of a large ensemble of random waves characterized by very different length scales. For both weak non-linearity and weak dispersion a different regime is predicted where solitons propagate while keeping their shape unchanged. The question under investigation here is which regime between weak turbulence or soliton gas does the system choose ? We report an experimental investigation of wave turbulence at the surface of finite depth water in the gravity-capillary range. We tune the wave dispersion and the level of nonlinearity by modifying the depth of water and the forcing respectively. We use space-time resolved profilometry to reconstruct the deformed surface of water. When decreasing the water depth, we observe a drastic transition between weak turbulence at the weakest forcing and a solitonic regime at stronger forcing. We characterize the transition between both states by studying their Fourier Spectra. We also study the efficiency of energy transfer in the weak turbulence regime. We report a loss of efficiency of angular transfer as the dispersion of the wave is reduced until the system bifurcates into the solitonic regime. This project has recieved funding from the European Research Council (ERC, Grant Agreement No. 647018-WATU).

Multiple Changes in the Hydrologic Regime of the Yangtze River and the Possible Impact of Reservoirs

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Feng Huang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates hydrologic changes in the Yangtze River using long-term daily stream flow records (1955–2013 collected from four flow gauging stations located from the upper to the lower reaches of the river. The hydrologic regime is quantified using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, which statistically characterize hydrologic variation within each year. Scanning t-test is applied to analyze multiple changes in the hydrologic regime at different time scales. Then, coherency analysis is applied to identify common changes among different hydrologic indicators and across different reaches of the Yangtze River. The results point to various change patterns in the five components of hydrologic regime, including the magnitude of monthly water conditions, magnitude and duration of annual extreme water conditions, timing of annual extreme water conditions, frequency and duration of high and low pulses, and rate and frequency of water condition changes. The 32 hydrologic indicators feature multiple temporal-scale changes. Spatial variations can be observed in the hydrologic changes of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river. Common changes in different reaches consist of hydrologic indicators including the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators. The monthly flow in October is dominated by decreasing trends, while the monthly flows between January and March, the annual minimum 1/3/7/30/90-day flows, and the base flow index are characterized by increasing trends. Low pulse duration and total days of low pulses feature downward trends. The coherency analysis reveals significant relationships between the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators, indicating that reservoir regulation is an important factor behind the hydrologic changes.

Human impacts on runoff regime of middle and lower Yellow River

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Yan-fang Sang

2011-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, the 54-year (1950 to 2003 monthly runoff series from February, April, August, and November, as well as the annual runoff series, measured at both Huayuankou and Lijin hydrological stations were chosen as representative data, and the continuous wavelet transform (CWT was applied to analyze the impacts of human activities on the runoff regime of the middle and lower Yellow River. A point of change in 1970 was first determined, and the observed series before 1970 were considered natural runoff while those after 1970 were restored according to linear trends. Then, the CWT was applied to both the observed and restored runoff series to reveal their variations at multi-temporal scales, including the five temporal ranges of 1–4, 6–8, 9–12, 16–22, and 22–30 years, and the trend at the temporal scale of 54 years. These analysis results are compared and discussed in detail. In conclusion, because of the impacts of human activities, there have been significant changes in the runoff regime in the middle and lower Yellow River since 1970. The decaying tendency of annual runoff has become more pronounced, and the inner-annual distribution of runoff has changed, but human activities have had little impact on the periodic characteristics of runoff.

Trickle/pulse flow regime transition in downflow packed tower involving foaming liquids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sodhi Vijay

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The most of past studies in foaming trickle bed reactors aimed at the improvement of efficiency and operational parameters leads to high economic advantages. Conventionally most of the industries rely on frequently used gas continuous flow (GCF where operational output is satisfactory but not yields efficiently as in pulsing flow (PF and foaming pulsing flow (FPF. Hydrodynamic characteristics like regime transitions are significantly influenced by foaming nature of liquid as well as gas and liquid flow rates. This study’s aim was to demonstrate experimentally the effects of liquid flow rate, gas flow rates and liquid surface tension on regime transition. These parameters were analyzed for the air-aqueous Sodium Lauryl Sulphate and air-water systems. More than 240 experiments were done to obtain the transition boundary for trickle flow (GCF to foaming pulsing flow (PF/FPF by use excessive foaming 15-60 ppm surfactant compositions. The trickle to pulse flow transition appeared at lower gas and liquid flow rates with decrease in liquid surface tension. All experimental data had been collected and drawn in the form of four different transitional plots which are compared and drawn by using flow coordinates proposed by different researchers. A prominent decrease in dynamic liquid saturation was observed especially during regime transitional change. The reactor two phase pressure evident a sharp rise to verify the regime transition shift from GCF to PF/FPF. Present study reveals, the regime transition boundary significantly influenced by any change in hydrodynamic as well as physiochemical properties including surface tension.

Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

Science.gov (United States)

Göckede, Mathias; Kittler, Fanny; Kwon, Min Jung; Burjack, Ina; Heimann, Martin; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey

2017-12-01

Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

Resource manager information needs regarding hydrologic regime shifts for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Woodward, Andrea; Jenni, Karen

2014-01-01

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources in North America. LCCs were established by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of the fact that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes, and resource management challenges extend beyond most of the boundaries considered in current natural resource management. The North Pacific LCC (NPLCC) covers the range of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest, including an area of 528,360 km2 spanning 22 degrees of latitude from the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, to Bodega Bay, California. The coverage area includes parts of four States, two Canadian provinces, and more than 100 Tribes and First Nation language groups. It extends from alpine areas at the crest of coastal mountains across subalpine, montane, and lowland forests to the nearshore marine environment. This wide range of latitudes and elevation zones; terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats; and complex jurisdictional boundaries hosts a diversity of natural resources and their corresponding management issues are equally diverse. As evidenced by the Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge (S-TEK) Strategy guiding principles, identifying and responding to the needs of resource managers is key to the success of the NPLCC. To help achieve this goal of the NPLCC, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has organized several workshops with resource managers and resource scientists to identify management information needs relevant to the priority topics identified in the S-TEK Strategy. Here, we detail the results from a first workshop to address the effects of changes in hydrologic regime on rivers, streams, and riparian corridors. The workshop focused on a subset of the full NPLCC geography and was

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillings, Simon; Balmer, Dawn E; Fuller, Robert J

2015-06-01

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more

Shifting conceptions of complexity in forest management and silviculture

Science.gov (United States)

Robert T. Fahey; Brandon C. Alveshere; Julia I. Burton; Anthony W. D' Amato; Yvette L. Dickinson; William S. Keeton; Christel C. Kern; Andrew J. Larson; Brian J. Palik; Klaus J. Puettmann; Michael R. Saunders; Christopher R. Webster; Jeff W. Atkins; Christopher M. Gough; Brady S. Hardiman

2018-01-01

In the past several decades, a trend in forestry and silviculture has been toward promoting complexity in forest ecosystems, but how complexity is conceived and described has shifted over time as new ideas and terminology have been introduced. Historically, ecologically-focused silviculture has focused largely on manipulation of structural complexity, but often with...

Bragg-Scattering Four-Wave Mixing in Nonlinear Fibers with Intracavity Frequency-Shifted Laser Pumps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katarzyna Krupa

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We experimentally study four-wave mixing in highly nonlinear fibers using two independent and partially coherent laser pumps and a third coherent signal. We focus our attention on the Bragg-scattering frequency conversion. The two pumps were obtained by amplifying two Intracavity frequency-shifted feedback lasers working in a continuous wave regime.

Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983-2008: observational support for a poleward shift

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bender, Frida A.M.; Ramanathan, V. [University of California, Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate (C4), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Tselioudis, George [Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

2012-05-15

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Science.gov (United States)

Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

2012-01-01

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied

From Drug Safety to Drug Security: A Contemporary Shift in the Policing of Health.

Science.gov (United States)

Hornberger, Julia

2018-01-29

The counterfeiting of medication is increasingly seen as a major threat to health, especially in the light of both the everyday reliance on and a broadening of world-wide access to pharmaceuticals. Exaggerated or real, this threat has inaugurated, this article argues, a shift from a drug safety regime to a drug security regime that governs the flow of pharmaceuticals and brings together markets, police, and health actors in new ways. This entails a shift from soft disciplinary means aimed at incremental and continued inclusion of defaulters, to one of drastically sovereign measures of exclusion and banishment aimed at fake goods and the people associated with them, in the name of health. Through a multi-sited ethnographic study, this article shows how such new drug security efforts play themselves out especially in (South) Africa, highlighting a modus operandi of spectacular performativity and of working through suspicion and association rather than factuality, producing value less so for those in need of health than for a petty security industry itself. © 2018 by the American Anthropological Association.

Trophic signatures of seabirds suggest shifts in oceanic ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Gagne, Tyler O.; Hyrenbach, K. David; Hagemann, Molly E.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.

2018-01-01

Pelagic ecosystems are dynamic ocean regions whose immense natural capital is affected by climate change, pollution, and commercial fisheries. Trophic level–based indicators derived from fishery catch data may reveal the food web status of these systems, but the utility of these metrics has been debated because of targeting bias in fisheries catch. We analyze a unique, fishery-independent data set of North Pacific seabird tissues to inform ecosystem trends over 13 decades (1890s to 2010s). Trophic position declined broadly in five of eight species sampled, indicating a long-term shift from higher–trophic level to lower–trophic level prey. No species increased their trophic position. Given species prey preferences, Bayesian diet reconstructions suggest a shift from fishes to squids, a result consistent with both catch reports and ecosystem models. Machine learning models further reveal that trophic position trends have a complex set of drivers including climate, commercial fisheries, and ecomorphology. Our results show that multiple species of fish-consuming seabirds may track the complex changes occurring in marine ecosystems. PMID:29457134

Regime change?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Budlong-Sylvester, K.W.

2004-01-01

Following the 1998 nuclear tests in South Asia and later reinforced by revelations about North Korean and Iraqi nuclear activities, there has been growing concern about increasing proliferation dangers. At the same time, the prospects of radiological/nuclear terrorism are seen to be rising - since 9/11, concern over a proliferation/terrorism nexus has never been higher. In the face of this growing danger, there are urgent calls for stronger measures to strengthen the current international nuclear nonproliferation regime, including recommendations to place civilian processing of weapon-useable material under multinational control. As well, there are calls for entirely new tools, including military options. As proliferation and terrorism concerns grow, the regime is under pressure and there is a temptation to consider fundamental changes to the regime. In this context, this paper will address the following: Do we need to change the regime centered on the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)? What improvements could ensure it will be the foundation for the proliferation resistance and physical protection needed if nuclear power grows? What will make it a viable centerpiece of future nonproliferation and counterterrorism approaches?

Position-dependent energy-level shifts of an accelerated atom in the presence of a boundary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Zhiying; Yu Hongwei

2010-01-01

We consider a uniformly accelerated atom interacting with a vacuum electromagnetic field in the presence of an infinite conducting plane boundary and calculate separately the contributions of vacuum fluctuations and radiation reaction to the atomic energy-level shift. We analyze in detail the behavior of the total energy shift in three different regimes of the distance in both the low-acceleration and high-acceleration limits. Our results show that, in general, an accelerated atom does not behave as if immersed in a thermal bath at the Unruh temperature in terms of the atomic energy-level shifts, and the effect of the acceleration on the atomic energy-level shifts may in principle become appreciable in certain circumstances, although it may not be realistic for actual experimental measurements. We also examine the effects of the acceleration on the level shifts when the acceleration is of the order of the transition frequency of the atom and we find some features which differ from what was obtained in the existing literature.

Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Krebs, Patrik; Pezzatti, Gianni B; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Talbot, Lee M; Conedera, Marco

2010-06-01

"Fire regime" has become, in recent decades, a key concept in many scientific domains. In spite of its wide spread use, the concept still lacks a clear and wide established definition. Many believe that it was first discussed in a famous report on national park management in the United States, and that it may be simply defined as a selection of a few measurable parameters that summarize the fire occurrence patterns in an area. This view has been uncritically perpetuated in the scientific community in the last decades. In this paper we attempt a historical reconstruction of the origin, the evolution and the current meaning of "fire regime" as a concept. Its roots go back to the 19th century in France and to the first half of the 20th century in French African colonies. The "fire regime" concept took time to evolve and pass from French into English usage and thus to the whole scientific community. This coincided with a paradigm shift in the early 1960s in the United States, where a favourable cultural, social and scientific climate led to the natural role of fires as a major disturbance in ecosystem dynamics becoming fully acknowledged. Today the concept of "fire regime" refers to a collection of several fire-related parameters that may be organized, assembled and used in different ways according to the needs of the users. A structure for the most relevant categories of parameters is proposed, aiming to contribute to a unified concept of "fire regime" that can reconcile the physical nature of fire with the socio-ecological context within which it occurs.

Arctic circulation regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

2015-10-13

Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. © 2015 The Authors.

Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen D. Krasner

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor das hipóteses, ineficazes; as orientações grocianas vêem os regimes como componentes íntimos do sistema internacional; as perspectivas estruturalistas modificadas vêem os regimes como significativos somente em certas condições restritas. Para os argumentos grociano e estruturalista modificado - que concordam com a visão de que os regimes podem influenciar resultados e comportamentos - , o desenvolvimento de regimes é visto como uma função de cinco variáveis causais básicas: auto-interesse egoísta; poder político; normas e princípios difusos; usos e costumes; conhecimento.

Occupational history of night shift work and Parkinson's disease in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schernhammer, Eva S; Lassen, Christina F; Kenborg, Line

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether working night shifts was associated with the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD). METHODS: Between January 2008 and December 2010, we recruited 1808 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of idiopathic PD from Denmark and 1876 population controls matched by year...... shift work and PD [odds ratio (OR) for any type of night work (ie, either permanent or rotating night work) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.86-1.21]. Compared with persons who never worked night shifts, risks of those with longer durations of night work did not appear to differ (OR ....95, 95% CI 0.75-1.19, OR 10-19 years= 1.09, 95% CI 0.77-1.53, OR ≥20 years=1.05, 95% CI 0.81-1.37, P for trend=0.23). Associations were similar among men and women. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that working night shifts is not associated with PD or that low tolerance for night shift work is an early...

Shifting balances in U.S. metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnick, D H

1984-12-01

"This paper assesses some of the recent attempts to explain the perceived growth reversal between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States during the 1970s. The paper argues that the reversal in population trends was not a one-time, radical shift in settlement trends, but rather the result of more continuous underlying industrial trends. Indeed, since 1979, population growth has again become faster in metropolitan than nonmetropolitan areas." The paper includes three sections. Regional and area population and industrial earnings growth patterns are first summarized for the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Theories of polarization and polar reversal are then evaluated and found to be inadequate. Finally, a reconstruction of the neoclassical model is proposed. excerpt

Linking Social Change and Developmental Change: Shifting Pathways of Human Development

Science.gov (United States)

Greenfield, Patricia M.

2009-01-01

P. M. Greenfield's new theory of social change and human development aims to show how changing sociodemographic ecologies alter cultural values and learning environments and thereby shift developmental pathways. Worldwide sociodemographic trends include movement from rural residence, informal education at home, subsistence economy, and…

A cavity-Cooper pair transistor scheme for investigating quantum optomechanics in the ultra-strong coupling regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimberg, A J; Blencowe, M P; Armour, A D; Nation, P D

2014-01-01

We propose a scheme involving a Cooper pair transistor (CPT) embedded in a superconducting microwave cavity, where the CPT serves as a charge tunable quantum inductor to facilitate ultra-strong coupling between photons in the cavity and a nano- to meso-scale mechanical resonator. The mechanical resonator is capacitively coupled to the CPT, such that mechanical displacements of the resonator cause a shift in the CPT inductance and hence the cavity's resonant frequency. The amplification provided by the CPT is sufficient for the zero point motion of the mechanical resonator alone to cause a significant change in the cavity resonance. Conversely, a single photon in the cavity causes a shift in the mechanical resonator position on the order of its zero point motion. As a result, the cavity-Cooper pair transistor coupled to a mechanical resonator will be able to access a regime in which single photons can affect single phonons and vice versa. Realizing this ultra-strong coupling regime will facilitate the creation of non-classical states of the mechanical resonator, as well as the means to accurately characterize such states by measuring the cavity photon field. (paper)

A critique of the historical-fire-regime concept in conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Johanna; Kobziar, Leda; Rose, Elizabeth White; Cropper, Wendell

2017-10-01

Prescribed fire is widely accepted as a conservation tool because fire is essential to the maintenance of native biodiversity in many terrestrial communities. Approaches to this land-management technique vary greatly among continents, and sharing knowledge internationally can inform application of prescribed fire worldwide. In North America, decisions about how and when to apply prescribed fire are typically based on the historical-fire-regime concept (HFRC), which holds that replicating the pattern of fires ignited by lightning or preindustrial humans best promotes native species in fire-prone regions. The HFRC rests on 3 assumptions: it is possible to infer historical fire regimes accurately; fire-suppressed communities are ecologically degraded; and reinstating historical fire regimes is the best course of action despite the global shift toward novel abiotic and biotic conditions. We examined the underpinnings of these assumptions by conducting a literature review on the use of historical fire regimes to inform the application of prescribed fire. We found that the practice of inferring historical fire regimes for entire regions or ecosystems often entails substantial uncertainty and can yield equivocal results; ecological outcomes of fire suppression are complex and may not equate to degradation, depending on the ecosystem and context; and habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and other modern factors can interact with fire to produce novel and in some cases negative ecological outcomes. It is therefore unlikely that all 3 assumptions will be fully upheld for any landscape in which prescribed fire is being applied. Although the HFRC is a valuable starting point, it should not be viewed as the sole basis for developing prescribed fire programs. Rather, fire prescriptions should also account for other specific, measurable ecological parameters on a case-by-case basis. To best achieve conservation goals, researchers should seek to understand contemporary fire

Coherent detection of THz-induced sideband emission from excitons in the nonperturbative regime

Science.gov (United States)

Uchida, K.; Otobe, T.; Mochizuki, T.; Kim, C.; Yoshita, M.; Tanaka, K.; Akiyama, H.; Pfeiffer, L. N.; West, K. W.; Hirori, H.

2018-04-01

Strong interaction of a terahertz (THz) wave with excitons induces nonperturbative optical effects such as Rabi splitting and high-order sideband generation. Here, we investigated coherent properties of THz-induced sideband emissions from GaAs/AlGaAs multiquantum wells. With increasing THz electric field, optical susceptibility of the THz-dressed exciton shows a redshift with spectral broadening and extraordinary phase shift. This implies that the field ionization of the 1 s exciton modifies the THz-dressed exciton in the nonperturbative regime.

Trend shifts in satellite-derived vegetation growth in Central Eurasia, 1982-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Hao-Jie; Wang, Xin-Ping; Yang, Tai-Bao

2017-02-01

Central Eurasian vegetation is critical for the regional ecological security and the global carbon cycle. However, climatic impacts on vegetation growth in Central Eurasia are uncertain. The reason for this uncertainty lies in the fact that the response of vegetation to climate change showed nonlinearity, seasonality and differences among plant functional types. Based on remotely sensed vegetation index and in-situ meteorological data for the years 1982-2013, in conjunction with the latest land cover type product, we analyzed how vegetation growth trend varied across different seasons and evaluated vegetation response to climate variables at regional, biome and pixel scales. We found a persistent increase in the growing season NDVI over Central Eurasia during 1982-1994, whereas this greening trend has stalled since the mid-1990s in response to increased water deficit. The stalled trend in the growing season NDVI was largely attributed by summer and autumn NDVI changes. Enhanced spring vegetation growth after 2002 was caused by rapid spring warming. The response of vegetation to climatic factors varied in different seasons. Precipitation was the main climate driver for the growing season and summer vegetation growth. Changes in temperature and precipitation during winter and spring controlled the spring vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation growth was mainly dependent on the vegetation growth in summer. We found diverse responses of different vegetation types to climate drivers in Central Eurasia. Forests were more responsive to temperature than to precipitation. Grassland and desert vegetation responded more strongly to precipitation than to temperature in summer but more strongly to temperature than to precipitation in spring. In addition, the growth of desert vegetation was more dependent on winter precipitation than that of grasslands. This study has important implications for improving the performance of terrestrial ecosystem models to predict future vegetation

Exciton diamagnetic shift and optical properties in CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots in magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Shudong; Cheng, Liwen

2018-04-01

The magnetic field dependence of the optical properties of CdSe nanocrystal quantum dots (NQDs) is investigated theoretically using a perturbation method within the effective-mass approximation. The results show that the magnetic field lifts the degeneracy of the electron (hole) states. A blue-shift in the absorption spectra of m ≥ 0 exciton states is observed while the absorption peak of m attributed to the interplay of the orbital Zeeman effect and the additive confinement induced by the magnetic field. The excitonic absorption coefficient is almost independent of B in the strong confinement regime. The applied magnetic field causes the splitting of degenerated exciton states, resulting in the new absorption peaks. Based on the first-order perturbation theory, we propose the analytical expressions for the exciton binding energy, exciton transition energy and exciton diamagnetic shift of 1s, 1p-1, 1p0, 1p1, 1d-2, 1d-1, 1d0, 1d1, 1d2 and 2s exciton states on the applied magnetic field in the strong confinement regime.

Nonlinear ion-mixing-mode particle transport in the dissipative trapped electron regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ware, A.S.; Terry, P.W.

1993-09-01

The nonlinear particle transport arising from the convection of nonadiabatic electron density by ion temperature gradient driven turbulence is examined for trapped electron collisionality regimes. The renormalized dissipative nonadiabatic trapped electron phase space density response is derived and used to calculate the nonlinear particle flux along with an ansatz for the turbulently broadened frequency spectrum. In the lower temperature end of this regime, trapped electrons are collisional and all components of the quasilinear particle flux are outward (i.e., in the direction of the gradients). Nonlinear effects can alter the phase between the nonadiabatic trapped electron phase space density and the electrostatic potential, producing inward components in the particle flux. Specifically, both turbulent shifting of the peak of the frequency spectrum and nonlinear source terms in the trapped electron response can give rise to inward components. However, in the dissipative regime these terms are small and the trapped electron response remains dominantly laminar. When the trapped electrons are collisionless, there is a temperature threshold above which the electron temperature gradient driven component of the quasilinear particle flux changes sign and becomes inward. For finite amplitude turbulence, however, turbulent broadening of both the electron collisional resonance and the frequency spectrum removes tills threshold., and the temperature gradient driven component remains outward

Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Claussen, M.

1993-01-01

The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

Analytic description of Raman-induced frequency shift in the case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bugay, Aleksandr N., E-mail: bugay_aleksandr@mail.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Joliot-Curie 6, 141980, Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Khalyapin, Vyacheslav A., E-mail: slavasxi@gmail.com [Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad, 236041 (Russian Federation); Kaliningrad State Technical University, Kaliningrad, 236000 (Russian Federation)

2017-01-30

Raman-induced frequency shift of ultrashort pulses have been studied extensively for the soliton propagation regime. Here we derive explicit analytic expressions for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift in much less studied case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses. Pulse spectra may belong to any region of group velocity dispersion including zero group dispersion point. The analysis is based on the moment method. Obtained expressions fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation. - Highlights: • Explicit analytic formulas for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift are derived in the case of non-soliton pulses. • Dynamics of non-soliton ultrashort pulses in the cases of positive and zero group dispersion is considered. • The deceleration and the saturation of Raman-induced frequency shift are analyzed. • The calculation relies on the moment method and fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation.

Analytic description of Raman-induced frequency shift in the case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bugay, Aleksandr N.; Khalyapin, Vyacheslav A.

2017-01-01

Raman-induced frequency shift of ultrashort pulses have been studied extensively for the soliton propagation regime. Here we derive explicit analytic expressions for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift in much less studied case of non-soliton ultrashort pulses. Pulse spectra may belong to any region of group velocity dispersion including zero group dispersion point. The analysis is based on the moment method. Obtained expressions fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation. - Highlights: • Explicit analytic formulas for the evolution of Raman-induced frequency shift are derived in the case of non-soliton pulses. • Dynamics of non-soliton ultrashort pulses in the cases of positive and zero group dispersion is considered. • The deceleration and the saturation of Raman-induced frequency shift are analyzed. • The calculation relies on the moment method and fit well to the numerical solution of the nonlinear wave equation.

Overnight shift work: factors contributing to diagnostic discrepancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Tarek N; Loehfelm, Thomas; Khosa, Faisal; Rohatgi, Saurabh; Johnson, Jamlik-Omari

2016-02-01

The aims of the study are to identify factors contributing to preliminary interpretive discrepancies on overnight radiology resident shifts and apply this data in the context of known literature to draw parallels to attending overnight shift work schedules. Residents in one university-based training program provided preliminary interpretations of 18,488 overnight (11 pm–8 am) studies at a level 1 trauma center between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2014. As part of their normal workflow and feedback, attendings scored the reports as major discrepancy, minor discrepancy, agree, and agree--good job. We retrospectively obtained the preliminary interpretation scores for each study. Total relative value units (RVUs) per shift were calculated as an indicator of overnight workload. The dataset was supplemented with information on trainee level, number of consecutive nights on night float, hour, modality, and per-shift RVU. The data were analyzed with proportional logistic regression and Fisher's exact test. There were 233 major discrepancies (1.26 %). Trainee level (senior vs. junior residents; 1.08 vs. 1.38 %; p performance. Increased workload affected more junior residents' performance, with R3 residents performing significantly worse on busier nights. Hour of the night was not significantly associated with performance, but there was a trend toward best performance at 2 am, with subsequent decreased accuracy throughout the remaining shift hours. Improved performance occurred after the first six night float shifts, presumably as residents acclimated to a night schedule. As overnight shift work schedules increase in popularity for residents and attendings, focused attention to factors impacting interpretative accuracy is warranted.

A Modeling Approach for Evaluating the Coupled Riparian Vegetation-Geomorphic Response to Altered Flow Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Manners, R.; Wilcox, A. C.; Merritt, D. M.

2016-12-01

The ecogeomorphic response of riparian ecosystems to a change in hydrologic properties is difficult to predict because of the interactions and feedbacks among plants, water, and sediment. Most riparian models of community dynamics assume a static channel, yet geomorphic processes strongly control the establishment and survival of riparian vegetation. Using a combination of approaches that includes empirical relationships and hydrodynamic models, we model the coupled vegetation-topographic response of three cross-sections on the Yampa and Green Rivers in Dinosaur National Monument, to a shift in the flow regime. The locations represent the variable geomorphology and vegetation composition of these canyon-bound rivers. We account for the inundation and hydraulic properties of vegetation plots surveyed over three years within International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) Fastmech, equipped with a vegetation module that accounts for flexible stems and plant reconfiguration. The presence of functional groupings of plants, or those plants that respond similarly to environmental factors such as water availability and disturbance are determined from flow response curves developed for the Yampa River. Using field measurements of vegetation morphology, distance from the channel centerline, and dominant particle size and modeled inundation properties we develop an empirical relationship between these variables and topographic change. We evaluate vegetation and channel form changes over decadal timescales, allowing for the integration of processes over time. From our analyses, we identify thresholds in the flow regime that alter the distribution of plants and reduce geomorphic complexity, predominately through side-channel and backwater infilling. Simplification of some processes (e.g., empirically-derived sedimentation) and detailed treatment of others (e.g., plant-flow interactions) allows us to model the coupled dynamics of riparian ecosystems and evaluate the impact of

Tips and Trends to Start the New Year.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleich, Michael R

2018-01-01

With the New Year comes the opportunity to set goals and advance training and development opportunities for leaders. This article presents five tips and five trends that serve as prognosticators for the coming year, including tips to influence time management and leadership impact and trends, such as sexual harassment training and "soft" skills development, which are now core skills for team success. A shift from hierarchical structures to network- and relationship-centered webs for advanced problem solving is also projected. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2018;49(1):7-9. Copyright 2018, SLACK Incorporated.

Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Göckede

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Hydrologic conditions are a key factor in Arctic ecosystems, with strong influences on ecosystem structure and related effects on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. With systematic changes in water availability expected for large parts of the northern high-latitude region in the coming centuries, knowledge on shifts in ecosystem functionality triggered by altered water levels is crucial for reducing uncertainties in climate change predictions. Here, we present findings from paired ecosystem observations in northeast Siberia comprising a drained and a control site. At the drainage site, the water table has been artificially lowered by up to 30 cm in summer for more than a decade. This sustained primary disturbance in hydrologic conditions has triggered a suite of secondary shifts in ecosystem properties, including vegetation community structure, snow cover dynamics, and radiation budget, all of which influence the net effects of drainage. Reduced thermal conductivity in dry organic soils was identified as the dominating drainage effect on energy budget and soil thermal regime. Through this effect, reduced heat transfer into deeper soil layers leads to shallower thaw depths, initially leading to a stabilization of organic permafrost soils, while the long-term effects on permafrost temperature trends still need to be assessed. At the same time, more energy is transferred back into the atmosphere as sensible heat in the drained area, which may trigger a warming of the lower atmospheric surface layer.

Exchange rate regimes and monetary arrangements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Ribnikar

2005-06-01

Full Text Available There is a close relationship between a country’s exchange rate regime and monetary arrangement and if we are to examine monetary arrangements then exchange rate regimes must first be analysed. Within the conventional and most widely used classification of exchange rate regimes into rigid and flexible or into polar regimes (hard peg and float on one side, and intermediate regimes on the other there, is a much greater variety among intermediate regimes. A more precise and, as will be seen, more useful classification of exchange rate regimes is the first topic of the paper. The second topic is how exchange rate regimes influence or determine monetary arrangements and monetary policy or monetary policy regimes: monetary autonomy versus monetary nonautonomy and discretion in monetary policy versus commitment in monetary policy. Both topics are important for countries on their path to the EU and the euro area

Directional climate change and potential reversal of desertification in arid and semiarid ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Our objective was to determine if long-term increases in precipitation can maintain grasslands susceptible to desertification, and initiate a reversal of historic regime shifts on desertified shrublands. Long-term trends in desertification were documented using vegetation maps beginning in 1858. The...

Clinical investigation of set-shifting subtypes in anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Abbate-Daga, Giovanni; Buzzichelli, Sara; Marzola, Enrica; Amianto, Federico; Fassino, Secondo

2014-11-30

While evidence continues to accumulate on the relevance of cognitive inflexibility in anorexia nervosa (AN), its clinical correlates remain unclear. We aimed at examining the relationship between set-shifting and clinical variables (i.e., eating psychopathology, depression, and personality) in AN. Ninety-four individuals affected by AN and 59 healthy controls (HC) were recruited. All participants were assessed using: Eating Disorders Inventory-2 (EDI-2), Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). The AN group scored worse than HCs on set-shifting. According to their neuropsychological performances, AN patients were split into two groups corresponding to poor (N=30) and intact (N=64) set-shifting subtypes. Interoceptive awareness, impulse regulation, and maturity fears on the EDI-2 and depression on the BDI differed across all groups (HC, intact, and poor set-shifting subtype). Self-directedness on the TCI differed significantly among all groups. Cooperativeness and reward dependence differed instead only between HC and AN poor set-shifting subtype. After controlling for depression, only interoceptive awareness remained significant with reward dependence showing a trend towards statistical significance. These findings suggest that multiple clinical variables may be correlated with set-shifting performances in AN. The factors contributing to impaired cognitive inflexibility could be more complex than heretofore generally considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Kou, Xiaojun; Li, Qin; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Zhao, Yiheng; Liu, Shirong

2014-01-01

It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I), overlapping (O), and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz), based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index). A graphical tool (PRS_Chart) was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement) than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

A new tool for exploring climate change induced range shifts of conifer species in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Kou

Full Text Available It is inevitable that tree species will undergo considerable range shifts in response to anthropogenic induced climate change, even in the near future. Species Distribution Models (SDMs are valuable tools in exploring general temporal trends and spatial patterns of potential range shifts. Understanding projections to future climate for tree species will facilitate policy making in forestry. Comparative studies for a large number of tree species require the availability of suitable and standardized indices. A crucial limitation when deriving such indices is the threshold problem in defining ranges, which has made interspecies comparison problematic until now. Here we propose a set of threshold-free indices, which measure range explosion (I, overlapping (O, and range center movement in three dimensions (Dx, Dy, Dz, based on fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy Set based Potential Range Shift Index, F-PRS Index. A graphical tool (PRS_Chart was developed to visualize these indices. This technique was then applied to 46 Pinaceae species that are widely distributed and partly common in China. The spatial patterns of the modeling results were then statistically tested for significance. Results showed that range overlap was generally low; no trends in range size changes and longitudinal movements could be found, but northward and poleward movement trends were highly significant. Although range shifts seemed to exhibit huge interspecies variation, they were very consistent for certain climate change scenarios. Comparing the IPCC scenarios, we found that scenario A1B would lead to a larger extent of range shifts (less overlapping and more latitudinal movement than the A2 and the B1 scenarios. It is expected that the newly developed standardized indices and the respective graphical tool will facilitate studies on PRS's for other tree species groups that are important in forestry as well, and thus support climate adaptive forest management.

Latitudinal gradients in the productivity of European migrant warblers have not shifted northwards during a period of climate change.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eglington, S; Juliard, R; Gargallo, G; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Pearce Higgins, J; Baillie, S.R.; Robinson, R.A.

2015-01-01

Aim As global temperatures have increased, many species distributions have exhibited polewards shifts, a trend that is predicted to continue in future decades. However, the mechanisms underlying such shifts are not well understood. Here we quantify the impact of large-scale variation in temperature

Causas estruturais e consequências dos regimes internacionais: regimes como variáveis intervenientes

OpenAIRE

Krasner, Stephen D.

2012-01-01

Os regimes internacionais são definidos como princípios, normas, regras e procedimentos de tomada de decisões ao redor dos quais as expectativas dos atores convergem em uma dada área-tema. Como ponto de partida, os regimes são conceituados como variáveis intervenientes, estando entre fatores causais básicos e os resultados e comportamentos relacionados. Há três visões a respeito da importância dos regimes: as orientações estruturais convencionais desvalorizam os regimes como sendo, na melhor ...

The shifting beverage landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Storey, Maureen

2010-04-26

STOREY, M.L. The shifting beverage landscape. PHYSIOL BEHAV, 2010. - Simultaneous lifestyle changes have occurred in the last few decades, creating an imbalance in energy intake and energy expenditure that has led to overweight and obesity. Trends in the food supply show that total daily calories available per capita increased 28% since 1970. Total energy intake among men and women has also increased dramatically since that time. Some have suggested that intake of beverages has had a disproportional impact on obesity. Data collected by the Beverage Marketing Corporation between 1988-2008 demonstrate that, in reality, fewer calories per ounce are being produced by the beverage industry. Moreover, data from the National Cancer Institute show that soft drink intake represents 5.5% of daily calories. Data from NHANES 1999-2003 vs. 2003-06 may demonstrate a shift in beverage consumption for age/gender groups, ages 6 to>60years. The beverages provided in schools have significantly changed since 2006 when the beverage industry implemented School Beverage Guidelines. This voluntary action has removed full-calorie soft drinks from participating schools across the country. This shift to lower-calorie and smaller-portion beverages in school has led to a significant decrease in total beverage calories in schools. These data support the concept that to prevent and treat obesity, public health efforts should focus on energy balance and that a narrow focus on sweetened beverages is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on this complex problem. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rotating shift work associated with obesity in men from northeastern Ontario.

Science.gov (United States)

Grundy, Anne; Cotterchio, Michelle; Kirsh, Victoria A; Nadalin, Victoria; Lightfoot, Nancy; Kreiger, Nancy

2017-08-01

While some studies have suggested associations between shift work and obesity, few have been population-based or considered multiple shift schedules. Since obesity is linked with several chronic health conditions, understanding which types of shift work influence obesity is important and additional work with more detailed exposure assessment of shift work is warranted. Using multivariate polytomous logistic regression, we investigated the associations between shift work (evening/night, rotating and other shift schedules) and overweight and obesity as measured by body mass index cross-sectionally among 1561 men. These men had previously participated as population controls in a prostate cancer case-control study conducted in northeastern Ontario from 1995 to 1999. We obtained information on work history (including shift work), height and weight from the existing self-reported questionnaire data. We observed an association for ever (vs. never) having been employed in rotating shift work for both the overweight (OR [odds ratio] = 1.34; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.05-1.73) and obese (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.12-2.21) groups. We also observed nonsignificant associations for ever (vs. never) having been employed in permanent evening/night shifts. In addition, we found a significant trend of increased risk for both overweight and obesity with increasing duration of rotating shift work. Both the positive association between rotating shift work and obesity and the suggested positive association for permanent evening/night shift work in this study are consistent with previous findings. Future population-based research that is able to build on our results while examining additional shift work characteristics will further clarify whether some shift patterns have a greater impact on obesity than others.

Spectral transformations in the regime of pulse self-trapping in a nonlinear photonic crystal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novitsky, Denis V.

2011-01-01

We consider the interaction of a femtosecond light pulse with a one-dimensional photonic crystal with relaxing cubic nonlinearity in the regime of self-trapping. By use of numerical simulations, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the spectra of reflected and transmitted light possess the properties of narrowband (quasimonochromatic) or wideband (continuumlike) radiation. It is remarkable that these spectral features appear due to a significant frequency shift and occur inside a photonic band gap of the structure under investigation.

Increasingly heterogeneous ages at first birth by education in Southern-European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes: A seven-country comparison

Science.gov (United States)

Rendall, Michael; Aracil, Encarnacion; Bagavos, Christos; Couet, Christine; DeRose, Alessandra; DiGiulio, Paola; Lappegard, Trude; Robert-Bobée, Isabelle; Rønsen, Marit; Smallwood, Steve; Verropoulou, Georgia

2010-01-01

Family-policy regimes unfavourable to combining employment with motherhood have been claimed to increase socio-economic differentials in fertility as combining employment and motherhood has become more normative. This claim has to date been explored mainly in reference to ‘liberal’ Anglo-American regimes. Comparing education differentials in age at first birth among native-born women of 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts in seven countries representing three regime types, we find persistence in early first births among low-educated women not only in Britain and the United States but also in Greece, Italy, and Spain. Shifts towards later first births, however, were more extreme in Southern Europe and involved to some extent women at all education levels. The educationally-heterogeneous changes in age patterns of first births seen in the Southern European and Anglo-American family-policy regimes contrast with educationally-homogeneous changes across birth cohorts seen in the study’s two ‘universalistic’ countries, Norway and France. PMID:20954097

Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

Science.gov (United States)

Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

2015-01-01

The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

Masculinity in Indonesian Popular Culture in the Early Era of the New Order Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferry Fauzi Hermawan

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to identify the forms of masculinity in the Indonesian popular culture in the beginning of New Order regime. This study was based on the two novels: Cross Mama and Kekasih-Kekasih Gelap, written by Motinggo Busye. The analysis used new historicism theory proposed by Stephen Greenblatt. The analysis also considered various cultural contexts emerged in 1970s. The results show three shared trends in the novels. The first trend shows that the masculinity tends to be represented by both men worshiping patriarchal values such as the myth of woman’s virginity and men perceiving woman as a sexual object. The second trend shows that masculinity is stereotyped based on masculinity, power, and male dominance. The third trend shows that masculinity relates to various products of mass culture at the time. This last trend shows that in that era, the ideal male figure is represented as the one who: (1 is sexually active with many women, (2 has a muscular body, (3 has a handsome look, and (4 has a financial capability. Besides the shared three trends, the result also shows that the texts in the novels do not only reflect the cultural situations in the 60’s and 70’s but also contribute in shaping the social values of thecultural situations. Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE  

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lluís Brotons

Full Text Available Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain. We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

Isomeric shift compensation when using resonance detectors in Moessbauer spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irkaev, S.M.; Semenkin, V.A.; Sokolov, M.M.

1981-01-01

Method for compensation of isomeric shift of lines observed during operation of resonance detectors being part of spectrometers of nuclear gamma resonance is suggested. A flowsheet of device permitting to realize the method described is given. The method is based on using the Doppler effect. A source of resonance radiation is moved at a constant velocity, which is choosen so as to compensate energy shift of lines of the source and convertors of the resonance detector. The absorber under investigation is put in motion with a constant acceleration. The resonance detector signals are amplified selected according to amplitude by a discriminator and come to the input of multichannel analyzer operating in the regime of subsequent scaling. Analysis of experimental spectra obtained at velocities of source movement from 0 to +3 mm/s shows that value of resonance absorption effect drops as increasing energy shift in the source-converter system. It is concluded that application of the method described will permit to considerably extend the field of application of resonance detectors in the Moessbauer spectroscopy and investigate in practice all the isotopes having converted transitions [ru

Status on the selection and development of an embrittlement trend curve to use in ASTM standard guide E900

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirk, M.; Brian Hall, J.; Server, W.; Lucon, E.; Erickson, M.; Stoller, R.

2015-01-01

ASTM E900-07, Standard Guide for Predicting Radiation-Induced Transition Temperature Shift in Reactor Vessel Materials, includes an embrittlement trend curve. The trend curve can be used to predict the effect of neutron irradiation on the embrittlement of ferritic pressure vessel steels, as quantified by the shift in the Charpy V-Notch transition curve at 41 Joules of absorbed energy (ΔT 41J ). The current E900 trend curve was first adopted in the 2002 revision. In 2011 ASTM Subcommittee E10.02 undertook an extensive effort to evaluate the adequacy of the E900 trend curve for continued use. This paper summarizes the current status of this effort, which has produced a trend curve calibrated using a database of over 1800 ΔT 41J values from the light water reactor surveillance programs in thirteen countries. (authors)

Ten major trends now emerging in the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Naisbitt, J.

1978-01-01

Using a special analytical procedure for tracking and assessing events reported in the nation's newspapers, the Center for Policy Process has identified ten emerging trends in the United States that are having a major impact on all our lives and on all businesses and industries--and especially on the electric utility industry. Although the trends may move in contradictory directions and have different degrees of significance, all have been carefully monitored for a considerable length of time. All are firmly established--and are not to be viewed as the momentary interests of certain radical elements of the population. The ten trends are: the fast-emerging clash between nuclear fuel and coal as an environmental health issue; displacement of racism and sexism by ''ageism'' as society's most prominent anti-discrimination preoccupation, and the complete elimination soon of mandatory retirement; in government and technology, the phenomenon of ''appropriate scale'' replacing economies of scale, emergence of single-issue political organizations; coming-of-age of the recycling ethic; emergence of ''access to capital'' as the new equity issue--the new rights issue; continuing shift from centralization to decentralization; movement of society in the dual directions of high technology/high touch; business' increasing involvement with the well-established accountability trend; and shift from a representative democracy to a participatory democracy--this profound change in American democracy actually began about a decade or so ago.

Stability of highly shifted equilibria in a large aspect ratio low-field tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gourdain, P.-A.; Leboeuf, J.-N.; Neches, R. Y.

2007-01-01

In the long run, the economics of fusion will dictate that reactors confine large plasma pressure rather efficiently. A possible route manifests itself as equilibria with large shift of the plasma magnetic axis. This shift compresses the flux surfaces on the outer part of the plasma, hereby increasing the allowable plasma pressure a machine can confine for a given toroidal magnetic field, which is the main cost of the device. As a first step toward a reactor, we propose investigating the stability of such configurations in a low magnetic field high aspect ratio machine. By focusing our arguments solely on the shape of the toroidal plasma current density profile we discuss the stability of highly shifted equilibria and their robustness to current profile variations that could occur in actual experiments. The evolution of the plasma parameters, as the beta poloidal is increased, is also examined to give a better understanding of the difference in performance between the various regimes

Experimental investigation on electron cyclotron absorption at down-shifted frequency in the PLT tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazzucato, E.; Fidone, I.; Cavallo, A.; von Goeler, S.; Hsuan, H.

1986-05-01

The absorption of 60 GHz electron cyclotron waves, with the extraordinary mode and an oblique angle of propagation, has been investigated in the PLT tokamak in the regime of down-shifted frequencies. The production of energetic electrons, with energies of up to 300 to 400 keV, peaks at values of toroidal field (approx. =29 kG) for which the wave frequency is significantly smaller than the electron cyclotron frequency in the whole plasma region. The observations are consistent with the predictions of the relativistic theory of electron cyclotron damping at down-shifted frequency. Existing rf sources make this process a viable method for assisting the current ramp-up, and for heating the plasma of present large tokamaks

Trends in dermatology practices and the implications for the workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrlich, Alison; Kostecki, James; Olkaba, Helen

2017-10-01

The American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) practice profile surveys have been conducted for more than a decade to gauge trends in our workforce supply and demand. To update the trends and current workforce issues for the field of dermatology. The AAD Practice Profile Survey is sent by both e-mail and postal mail to a random sample of practicing dermatologists who are AAD members. Shifts are noted in the primary practice setting; fewer dermatologists are in solo practice and more are in group practices than in previous years. Teledermatology use trended upward from 7% to 11% between 2012 and 2014. The implementation of electronic health records increased from 51% in 2011 to 70% in 2014. There is potential for response bias and inaccurate self-reporting. Survey responses collected may not be representative of all geographic areas. The demand for dermatology services remains strong. Shifts in the practice setting may be related to increases in overhead costs that are partially associated with the implementation of technology-based medical records. Integration of electronic health records and utilization of telemedicine are increasing. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices

Science.gov (United States)

Goswami, B.; Ambika, G.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2012-09-01

Financial data has been extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure. We employ an estimator based on recurrence plots - the correlation of probability of recurrence (CPR) - to analyze connections between nine stock indices spread worldwide. We suggest a slight modification of the CPR approach in order to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR for an approximately 19-month window moved along the time series and compare them to trends in ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness (strong, moderate, and weak), we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. We also look at the behavior of CPR during the dot-com bubble by shifting the time series to align their peaks. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonically towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever-increasing correlation. CPR also exhibits that time-shifted markets have high connectivity around the dot-com bubble of 2000. We use significance tests using twin surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.

North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

2015-03-01

The atmosphere and ocean of the North Atlantic have undergone significant changes in the past century. To understand these changes, their mechanisms, and their regional implications requires a quantitative understanding of processes in the coupled ocean and atmosphere system. Central to this understanding is the role played by the dominant patterns of ocean and atmospheric variability which define coherent variations in physical characteristics over large areas. Cluster analysis is used in this article to identify the patterns of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability in the subseasonal and interannual spectral intervals. Four dominant subseasonal weather regimes are defined using Bayesian Gaussian mixture models. All correlation patterns of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with the membership probability time series for the weather regimes show similarities with the dipole structure typical for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SLP patterns of two of the regimes represent the opposite phases NAO+ and NAO-. The two other weather regimes, the Atlantic Ridge (AR) and Scandinavian-Greenland dipole (SG), have dipole spatial structures with the northern and southern centers of action shifted with respect to the NAO pattern. These two patterns define blocking structures over Scandinavia and near the southern tip of Greenland, respectively. The storm tracks typical for the four regimes resemble the well known paths for positive/negative phases of NAO for the NAO+/NAO- weather regimes, and paths influenced by blocking off the south Greenland tip for AR and over Scandinavia for SG. The correlation patterns of momentum and heat fluxes to the ocean for the four regimes have tripole structures with positive (warm) downward heat flux anomalies over the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for the NAO- and the AR and negative heat flux anomalies over the SPNA for the NAO+. The downward heat flux anomalies associated with the SG are negative over the Labrador Sea and

Language Shift – The Case of Punjabi in Sargodha Region of Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barirah NAZIR

2013-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the linguistic scenario of Punjabi (second major language in Pakistan after Urdu in Sargodha and the social mechanism which poses threat to the sustainability of Punjabi on a broader scale. It deals with the attitudes, causes and effects of the language shift from Punjabi to other languages due to prestige, modernity and social mobility issues. Triangulation (Questionnaires from n=80 and In-depth interviews from n=3 was used in order to observe the trends of shift. The findings exhibit that Punjabi speakers are not so loyal to their language, Punjabi language shift is a real not perceived phenomenon and a day may not be far away when Punjabi will be considered endangered language in Pakistan.  

Rotating shift work associated with obesity in men from northeastern Ontario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne Grundy

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Introduction: While some studies have suggested associations between shift work and obesity, few have been population-based or considered multiple shift schedules. Since obesity is linked with several chronic health conditions, understanding which types of shift work influence obesity is important and additional work with more detailed exposure assessment of shift work is warranted. Methods: Using multivariate polytomous logistic regression, we investigated the associations between shift work (evening/night, rotating and other shift schedules and overweight and obesity as measured by body mass index cross-sectionally among 1561 men. These men had previously participated as population controls in a prostate cancer case-control study conducted in northeastern Ontario from 1995 to 1999. We obtained information on work history (including shift work, height and weight from the existing self-reported questionnaire data. Results: We observed an association for ever (vs. never having been employed in rotating shift work for both the overweight (OR [odds ratio] = 1.34; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.05–1.73 and obese (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.12–2.21 groups. We also observed nonsignificant associations for ever (vs. never having been employed in permanent evening/night shifts. In addition, we found a significant trend of increased risk for both overweight and obesity with increasing duration of rotating shift work. Conclusion: Both the positive association between rotating shift work and obesity and the suggested positive association for permanent evening/night shift work in this study are consistent with previous findings. Future population-based research that is able to build on our results while examining additional shift work characteristics will further clarify whether some shift patterns have a greater impact on obesity than others.

Strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, J.

2003-01-01

Although the nuclear non-proliferation regime has enjoyed considerable success, today the regime has never been under greater threat. Three states have challenged the objectives of the NPT, and there is a technology challenge - the spread of centrifuge enrichment technology and know-how. A major issue confronting the international community is, how to deal with a determined proliferator? Despite this gloomy scenario, however, the non-proliferation regime has considerable strengths - many of which can be developed further. The regime comprises complex interacting and mutually reinforcing elements. At its centre is the NPT - with IAEA safeguards as the Treaty's verification mechanism. Important complementary elements include: restraint in the supply and the acquisition of sensitive technologies; multilateral regimes such as the CTBT and proposed FMCT; various regional and bilateral regimes; the range of security and arms control arrangements outside the nuclear area (including other WMD regimes); and the development of proliferation-resistant technologies. Especially important are political incentives and sanctions in support of non-proliferation objectives. This paper outlines some of the key issues facing the non-proliferation regime

Autonomia e relevância dos regimes The autonomy and relevance of regimes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gustavo Seignemartin de Carvalho

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Teorias institucionalistas na disciplina de relações internacionais usualmente definem regimes como um conjunto de normas e regras formais ou informais que permitem a convergência de expectativas ou a padronização do comportamento de seus participantes em uma determinada área de interesses com o objetivo de resolver problemas de coordenação que tenderiam a resultados não pareto-eficientes. Como estas definições baseadas meramente na "eficiência" dos regimes não parecem suficientes para explicar sua efetividade, o presente artigo propõe uma definição diferente para regimes: a de arranjos políticos que permitem a redistribuição dos ganhos da cooperação pelos participantes em uma determinada área de interesses em um contexto de interdependência. Regimes possuiriam efetividade pela sua autonomia e relevância, ou seja, por possuírem existência objetiva autônoma da de seus participantes e por influenciarem seu comportamento e expectativas de maneiras que não podem ser reduzidas à ação individual de nenhum deles. O artigo inicia-se com uma breve discussão sobre as dificuldades terminológicas associadas ao estudo de regimes e a definição dos conceitos de autonomia e relevância. Em seguida, classifica os diversos autores participantes do debate em duas perspectivas distintas, uma que nega (não-autonomistas e outra que atribui (autonomistas aos regimes autonomia e relevância, e faz uma breve análise dos autores e tradições mais significativos para o debate, aprofundando-se nos autonomistas e nos argumentos que reforçam a hipótese aqui apresentada. Ao final, o artigo propõe uma decomposição analítica dos regimes nos quatro elementos principais que lhes propiciam autonomia e relevância: normatividade, atores, especificidade da área de interesses e interdependência complexa com o contexto.Regimes are defined by institutionalist theories in the discipline of International Relations as formal or informal sets

Trends in age of smoking initiation in the Netherlands: a shift towards older ages?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nuyts, Paulien A. W.; Kuipers, Mirte A. G.; Willemsen, Marc C.; Kunst, Anton E.

2018-01-01

Background and aim As smoking initiation generally occurs in adolescence, smoking prevention is targeted primarily at young adolescents (aged below 16 years). We hypothesize that, with the adoption of increasingly stronger youth access laws, a shift in the age of smoking initiation may have

This time it's different. An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leder, Frederic [2742 Sturges Highway, Westport, CT 06880 (United States); Shapiro, Judith N. [796 Sport Hill Road, Easton, CT 06612 (United States)

2008-08-15

There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East. (author)

Conceptualising Terrorism Trend Patterns in Pakistan an Empirical Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad  Feyyaz

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Terrorism continues to be viewed conventionally in Pakistan. However, the phenomenon has assumed a structured formation driven by rational choice perspectives. This article attempts to identify distinct trends and patterns of terrorism within prevailing environments of Pakistan. In doing so, it also examines the validity of seasonality dimensions of routine activity theory (use of summer months and earlier days of week for terrorist acts. Eight trends are identified tentatively. Using empirical data and analytical discourse, the findings confirm the assumed trends in terms of their typology, structure, operational system and rallying themes. In addition, the article finds support for the hypothesis of terrorism being a strategic approach rather than an ordinary form of violence. It is further found that changed patterns of violence warrant a revisiting of earlier assumptions regarding the applicability of routine activity theory within the Pakistani context. By implication, the study also suggests a variation of terrorism under different regime types, i.e. military or democratic. 

The latest trends in nature-based outdoor recreation

Science.gov (United States)

H. Ken Cordell

2008-01-01

Considerable interest in better understanding current trends in nature-based outdoor recreation followed publication of Richard Louv’s book, Last Child in the Woods, and a recent paper by Oliver R.W. Pergams and Patricia A. Zaradic titled “Evidence for a Fundamental and Pervasive Shift away from Nature-Based Recreation.”

New Trends in Mobile Technology Leadership

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silviu Cojocaru

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The mobile device market proved one of the most dynamic, with the leader in intelligent phones changing at least four times during the last decade. At least one important acquisition was registered during 2013 (when Microsoft bought Nokia’s mobile phone division and this event is slated to induce major shifts within the structure of this market. With this story we aim to provide information related to trends foreseen for this market.

Career Planning Trends in Japanese Companies

OpenAIRE

Firkola, Peter

2005-01-01

This paper provides an overview of career planning trends in Japanese companies. Research on career development in Japan is first reviewed. Career planning practices in Japanese companies are examined. Factors influencing career planning choice are then discussed. It was found that there appears to be a change occurring in the career planning practices, specifically the shifting of responsibility for an employees' career from the employer to the employee. (JEL Classifi-cation: M12, M54

Static converters power supply: transient regimes; Alimentation par convertisseurs statiques: regimes transitoires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, G. [Ecole Superieure d`Electricite (France)

1997-08-01

Direct current motors, asynchronous and variable speed synchronous motors are generally supplied with static converters. Speed variation is obtained by voltage variation in DC motors and by frequency variation in AC motors. In these conditions, these motors are running continuously in transient regimes: the DC motors current is not direct and the AC motors current is not sinusoidal. This situation leads to pulsing couples in the shaft line and to an increase of Joule effect losses. The aim of this paper is to present the methods of study of the electric motors functioning using the shape of the power voltages given by converters and mathematical models of these machines. The synchronous machines are rapidly described while the asynchronous machines are studied using Ku`s transformation instead of Park`s transformation for simplification. For each type of machine, calculation methods allow to determine their current, additional losses and couple characteristics. The transient regimes considered are those remaining when the motor is running at a constant speed and defined regime (supply voltages are periodical functions of time). These transient regimes are identically reproducing with a frequency which is a multiple of the converters supply frequency. Transient regimes due to functioning changes of the motor, such as resisting couple or power supply frequency variations, are not considered in this study. (J.S.) 9 refs.

Heart rate variability changes in business process outsourcing employees working in shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunikullaya, Kirthana U; Kirthi, Suresh K; Venkatesh, D; Goturu, Jaisri

2010-10-31

Irregular and poor quality sleep is common in business process outsourcing (BPO) employees due to continuous shift working. The influence of this on the cardiac autonomic activity was investigated by the spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV). 36 night shift BPO employees (working from 22:00 to 06:00h) and 36 age and sex matched day shift BPO employees (working from 08:00 to 16:00h) were recruited for the study. Five minute electrocardiogram (ECG) was recorded in all the subjects. Heart rate variability was analyzed by fast Fourier transformation using RMS Vagus HRV software. The results were analyzed using Mann Whitney U test, Student t-test, Wilcoxon signed rank test and were expressed as mean ± SD. Sleepiness was significantly higher among night shift workers as measured by Epworth Sleepiness Scale (p<0.001). Night shift BPO employees were found to have a trend towards lower values of vagal parameters - HF power (ms(2)), and higher values of sympathovagal parameters like LF Power (ms(2)) and the LF/HF power (%) suggesting decreased vagal activity and sympathetic over activity, when compared to day shift employees. However, HRV parameters did not vary significantly between the day shift employees and night shift workers baseline values, and also within the night shift group. Night shift working increased the heart rate and shifted the sympathovagal balance towards sympathetic dominance and decreased vagal parameters of HRV. This is an indicator of unfavorable change in the myocardial system, and thus shows increased risk of cardiovascular disease among the night shift employees.

Accuracy and precision of protein–ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markin, Craig J.; Spyracopoulos, Leo

2012-01-01

NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein–ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K D ) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K D value of a 1:1 protein–ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125–138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of 1 H– 15 N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein–ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k off ). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k off ∼ 3,000 s −1 in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k off from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k off values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s −1 . The validity of line shape analysis for k off values approaching intermediate exchange (∼100 s −1 ), may be facilitated by more accurate K D measurements from NMR

Accuracy and precision of protein-ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Markin, Craig J; Spyracopoulos, Leo

2012-12-01

NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein-ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K ( D )) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K ( D ) value of a 1:1 protein-ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125-138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of (1)H-(15)N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein-ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k ( off )). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k ( off ) ~ 3,000 s(-1) in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k ( off ) from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k ( off ) values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s(-1). The validity of line shape analysis for k ( off ) values approaching intermediate exchange (~100 s(-1)), may be facilitated by more accurate K ( D ) measurements

Shifts in dynamic regime of an invasive lady beetle are linked to the invasion and insecticidal management of its prey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bahlai, C.A.; Werf, van der W.; O'Neal, M.; Hemerik, L.; Landis, D.A.

2015-01-01

The spread and impact of invasive species may vary over time in relation to changes in the species itself, the biological community of which it is part, or external controls on the system. Here we investigate whether there have been changes in dynamic regimes over the last 20 years of two invasive

Channel evolution under changing hydrological regimes in anabranching reaches downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Jianqiao; Zhang, Wei; Yuan, Jing; Fan, Yongyang

2018-03-01

Elucidating the influence of dams on fluvial processes can benefit river protection and basin management. Based on hydrological and topographical data, we analyzed channel evolution in anabranching reaches under changing hydrological regimes influenced by the Three Gorges Dam. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the channels of specific anabranching reaches were defined as flood trend channels or low-flow trend channels according to the distribution of their flow characteristics. The anabranching reaches were classified as T1 or T2. The former is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and branch channels, and the latter is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and main channels; 2) on the basis of the new classification, the discrepant patterns of channel evolution seen in anabranching reaches were unified into a pattern that showed flood trend channels shrinking and low-flow trend channels expanding; 3) flood abatement and the increased duration of moderate flow discharges are the main factors that affect channel adjustments in anabranching reaches after dam construction; and 4) in the next few decades, the pattern of channel evolution will remain the same as that of the Three Gorges Dam operation. That is, the morphology will fully adapt to a flow with a low coefficient of variation. Our results are of interest in the management of the Yangtze River and other rivers influenced by dams.

Alaska's Changing Fire Regime - Implications for the Vulnerability of Its Boreal Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Kasischke, E. S.; Hoy, E. E.; Verbyla, D. L.; Rupp, T. S.; Duffy, P. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Murphy, K. A.; Jandt, R.; Barnes, J. L.; Calef, M.;

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Trends in Australian government health expenditure by age: a fiscal incidence analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapper, Alan; Phillimore, John

2014-11-01

Australian government health expenditure per capita has grown steadily across the past few decades, but little is known about trends in the age distribution of health expenditure. In this paper, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) fiscal incidence studies, which track expenditure at the household level between 1984 and 2010, are used to shed light on this topic. The main finding was that spending has shifted focus from the younger half to the older half of the population. This shift is evident in three areas: (1) acute care (hospitals); (2) community health services (doctors); and (3) pharmaceuticals. Together, these areas account for approximately 88% of expenditure. The trend is independent of demographic aging. It is unlikely to reflect changes in population health. Its explanation is open to debate. Growth in expenditure per household has been more than threefold faster for elderly than young households. Across this period, expenditure per household per week has increased by 51% for the young, by 79% for the middle aged and by 179% for the elderly. This age-related growth is most prominent in expenditure on acute care, community health services and pharmaceuticals. WHAT IS KNOWN ABOUT THE TOPIC?: The Productivity Commission has published figures that relate age and Australian heath expenditure. However, there has been no published study of age-related trends in Australian health expenditure. WHAT DOES THIS PAPER ADD?: In addition to tracking age-related trends across 26 years, this paper adds a breakdown of those trends into four categories of expenditure, namely acute care, community health services, pharmaceutical benefits, and other. This breakdown shows that the trends vary by expenditure type. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS?: The paper shows that forward projections in health expenditure need to take into account age-related trends as well as demographic trends.

Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Bloome, Deirdre

2015-01-01

Racial disparity in family incomes remained remarkably stable over the past 40 years in the United States despite major legal and social reforms. Previous scholarship presents two primary explanations for persistent inequality through a period of progressive change. One highlights continuity: because socioeconomic status is transmitted from parents to children, disparities created through histories of discrimination and opportunity denial may dissipate slowly. The second highlights change: because family income results from joining individual earnings in family units, changing family compositions can offset individuals’ changing economic chances. I examine whether black-white family income inequality trends are better characterized by the persistence of existing disadvantage (continuity) or shifting forms of disadvantage (change). I combine cross-sectional and panel analysis using Current Population Survey, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census, and National Vital Statistics data. Results suggest that African Americans experience relatively extreme intergenerational continuity (low upward mobility) and discontinuity (high downward mobility); both helped maintain racial inequality. Yet, intergenerational discontinuities allow new forms of disadvantage to emerge. On net, racial inequality trends are better characterized by changing forms of disadvantage than by continuity. Economic trends were equalizing but demographic trends were disequalizing; as family structures shifted, family incomes did not fully reflect labor-market gains. PMID:26456973

Sustainable urban regime adjustments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Jensen, Jens Stissing; Elle, Morten

2013-01-01

The endogenous agency that urban governments increasingly portray by making conscious and planned efforts to adjust the regimes they operate within is currently not well captured in transition studies. There is a need to acknowledge the ambiguity of regime enactment at the urban scale. This direc...

Design of all-optical high-order temporal integrators based on multiple-phase-shifted Bragg gratings.

Science.gov (United States)

Asghari, Mohammad H; Azaña, José

2008-07-21

In exact analogy with their electronic counterparts, photonic temporal integrators are fundamental building blocks for constructing all-optical circuits for ultrafast information processing and computing. In this work, we introduce a simple and general approach for realizing all-optical arbitrary-order temporal integrators. We demonstrate that the N(th) cumulative time integral of the complex field envelope of an input optical waveform can be obtained by simply propagating this waveform through a single uniform fiber/waveguide Bragg grating (BG) incorporating N pi-phase shifts along its axial profile. We derive here the design specifications of photonic integrators based on multiple-phase-shifted BGs. We show that the phase shifts in the BG structure can be arbitrarily located along the grating length provided that each uniform grating section (sections separated by the phase shifts) is sufficiently long so that its associated peak reflectivity reaches nearly 100%. The resulting designs are demonstrated by numerical simulations assuming all-fiber implementations. Our simulations show that the proposed approach can provide optical operation bandwidths in the tens-of-GHz regime using readily feasible photo-induced fiber BG structures.

Anthropogenic Water Uses and River Flow Regime Alterations by Dams

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrazzi, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Dams and impoundments have been designed to reconcile the systematic conflict between patterns of anthropogenic water uses and the temporal variability of river flows. Over the past seven decades, population growth and economic development led to a marked increase in the number of these water infrastructures, so that unregulated free-flowing rivers are now rare in developed countries and alterations of the hydrologic cycle at global scale have to be properly considered and characterized. Therefore, improving our understanding of the influence of dams and reservoirs on hydrologic regimes is going to play a key role in water planning and management. In this study, a physically based analytic approach is combined to extensive hydrologic data to investigate natural flow regime alterations downstream of dams in the Central-Eastern United States. These representative case studies span a wide range of different uses, including flood control, water supply and hydropower production. Our analysis reveals that the most evident effects of flood control through dams is a decrease in the intra-seasonal variability of flows, whose extent is controlled by the ratio between the storage capacity for flood control and the average incoming streamflow. Conversely, reservoirs used for water supply lead to an increase of daily streamflow variability and an enhanced inter-catchment heterogeneity. Over the last decades, the supply of fresh water required to sustain human populations has become a major concern at global scale. Accordingly, the number of reservoirs devoted to water supply increased by 50% in the US. This pattern foreshadows a possible shift in the cumulative effect of dams on river flow regimes in terms of inter-catchment homogenization and intra-annual flow variability.

Comparison of H-mode pedestals in different confinement regimes in DIII-D

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groebner, R J [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Leonard, A W [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Luce, T C [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Fenstermacher, M E [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); Jackson, G L [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Osborne, T H [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Thomas, D M [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States); Wade, M R [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California, 92186-5608 (United States)

2006-05-15

A survey of global performance parameters and their correlation with pedestal parameters is performed for standard H-mode, QH-mode and the enhanced confinement regimes of VH-mode, hybrid and advanced tokamak in the DIII-D tokamak. This study shows that there is a trend for global confinement quality or global beta to increase as the pedestal electron pressure or beta increases. However, there are also improvements in core confinement and beta, observed at fixed pedestal pressure or beta, which indicate that factors other than pedestal parameters also contribute to the best core performance. Several other pedestal structure parameters are found to be similar among these regimes. The scale lengths for electron pressure in the pedestal are in the range 0.8-1.6 cm at the outer midplane, most {eta}{sub e} values are in the range 1-3 in the middle of the T{sub e} pedestal and the T{sub e} and n{sub e} pedestals tend to penetrate the same distance into the plasma.

Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

2012-01-01

Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins....... Here, we investigate geographical range shifts relative to changing climatic conditions among a particularly well-sampled assemblage of butterflies in Canada. We assembled observations of 81 species and measured their latitudinal displacement between two periods: 1960–1975 (a period of little climate...... change) and 1990–2005 (a period with large climate change). We find an unexpected trend for species’ northern borders to shift progressively less relative to increasing minimum winter temperatures in northern Canada. This study demonstrates a novel, systemic latitudinal gradient in lags among a large...

Shift Colors

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Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

Science.gov (United States)

Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We

International Food Regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Malov

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The review article reveals the content of the concept of Food Regime, which is little-known in the Russian academic reference. The author monitored and codified the semantic dynamic of the terminological unit from its original interpretations to modern formulations based on the retrospective analysis. The rehabilitation of the academic merits of D. Puchala and R. Hopkins — authors who used the concept Food Regime for a few years before its universally recognized origin and official scientific debut, was accomplished with help of historical and comparative methods. The author implemented the method of ascension from the abstract to the concrete to demonstrating the classification of Food Regimes compiled on the basis of geopolitical interests in the sphere of international production, consumption, and distribution of foodstuffs. The characteristic features of historically formed Food Regime were described in the chronological order, as well as modern tendencies possessing reformist potential were identified. In particular, it has been established that the idea of Food Sovereignty (which is an alternative to the modern Corporate Food Regime is the subject for acute academic disputes. The discussion between P. McMichael P. and H. Bernstein devoted to the “peasant question” — mobilization frame of the Food Sovereignty strategy was analyzed using the secondary data processing method. Due to the critical analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that it is necessary to follow the principles of the Food Sovereignty strategy to prevent the catastrophic prospects associated with ecosystem degradation, accelerated erosion of soils, the complete disappearance of biodiversity and corporate autoc racy successfully. The author is convinced that the idea of Food Sovereignty can ward off energetic liberalization of nature, intensive privatization of life and rapid monetization of unconditioned human reflexes.

Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

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Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

2012-01-01

This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

Trends in low birth weight infants and changes in Baltimore's childbearing population, 1972–77

OpenAIRE

Strobino, Donna M.

1982-01-01

Linked birth and death records provided the population for a study of trends in low birth weight (LBW) rates in Baltimore between 1972 and 1977 and of the effect of changes in the characteristics of the childbearing population on these trends. The impact of shifts in the birth weight distribution on neonatal mortality rates was also investigated. Trends were analyzed for unstandardized LBW rates as well as for rates standardized on the distributions of maternal age, education, gravidity, prio...

Visões de um objeto incômodo: o regime militar brasileiro An undesirable subject: the Brazilian military regime

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Angelo Del Vecchio

2007-05-01

Full Text Available O presente artigo visa a qualificação do regime político vigente no Brasil entre 1964-1985. Para tanto, desenvolvo o resgate do conceito de ditadura, especialmente a partir da obra de Carl Schimitt, e busco aferir a sua adequação à análise do período militar. Palavras-chave: Estado. Regime político. Ditadura. Regime militar. The present article tries to qualify the political regime in Brazil from 1964 to 1985, using the concept of dictatorship mainly developed by Carl Schimitt in his writings and tries to adequate this concept to the Brazilian military regime. Keywords: State. Political regime. Dictatorship. Military regime.

THE INFLUENCED FLOW REGIMES

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Gavril PANDI

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The influenced flow regimes. The presence and activities ofhumanity influences the uniform environmental system, and in this context, therivers water resources. In concordance with this, the natural runoff regime suffersbigger and deeper changes. The nature of these changes depending on the type anddegree of water uses. The multitude of the use cause different types of influence,whit different quantitative aspects. In the same time, the influences havequalitative connotations, too, regarding to the modifications of the yearly watervolume runoff. So the natural runoff regime is modified. After analyzing thedistribution laws of the monthly runoff, there have been differenced four types ofinfluenced runoff regimes. In the excess type the influenced runoff is bigger thanthe natural, continuously in the whole year. The deficient type is characterized byinverse rapports like the first type, in the whole year. In the sinusoidal type, theinfluenced runoff is smaller than the natural in the period when the water isretained in the lake reservoirs, and in the depletion period the situation inverts. Atthe irregular type the ratio between influenced and natural runoff is changeable ina random meaner monthly. The recognition of the influenced regime and the gradeof influence are necessary in the evaluation and analysis of the usable hydrologicalriver resources, in the flood defence activities, in the complex scheme of thehydrographic basins, in the environment design and so on.

John Clark, Billy Graham and Baptist Trends towards Cultural Legitimacy.

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Davis, Jimmy Thomas

By tracing and connecting significant shifts in Baptist political and theological rhetoric to trends within the larger culture, this rhetorical transformation can be seen as establishing and maintaining these groups as significant forces in American culture. Before 1800, Baptists were against infant baptism, regarding baptism as a matter of…

Individual differences in the cortisol-awakening response during the first two years of shift work: A longitudinal study in novice police officers.

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Lammers-van der Holst, Heidi M; Kerkhof, Gerard A

2015-01-01

Cortisol acts as a critical biological intermediary through which chronic stressors like shift work impact upon multiple physiological, neuro-endocrine and hormonal functions. Therefore, the cortisol awakening response (CAR) is suggested as a prime index of shift work tolerance. Repeated assessments of the CAR (calculated as MnInc) in a group of 25 young novice police officers showed that in the interval between about 4 and 14 months after transitioning from regular day work to rotating shift work, mean values began to rise from baseline to significantly higher levels at about 14 months after they commenced shift work. Visual inspection of the individual trends revealed that a subgroup of 10 subjects followed a monotonically rising trend, whereas another 14 subjects, after an initial rise from about 4-14 months, reverted to a smaller, baseline level cortisol response at about 20 months after the start of shift work. If the initial increase in the cortisol response marks the development of a chronic stress response, the subsequent reversal to baseline levels in the subgroup of 14 participants might be indicative of a process of recovery, possibly the development of shift work tolerance.

Geothermal potential along the Balcones/Ouachita trend, central Texas: ongoing assessment and selected case studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Woodruff, C.M. Jr.; Macpherson, G.L.; Gever, C.; Caran, S.C.; El Shazly, A.G.

1984-04-01

A synopsis of the geologic conditions along the Balcones/Ouachita trend is presented. The problems in defining low-temperature resources and in recognizing anomalies are addressed. Local geologic and hydrologic conditions are assayed in terms of ambient thermal regimes, and hypotheses are presented for the origin of thermal waters.

The Catholic church and politics in Colombia: a shifting foundation

OpenAIRE

Estrem, David J.

2016-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Recent research reveals a precipitous decrease in Catholic adherents across Latin America. Since 1970, numerous Latin Americans have professed a shift to Protestantism. Scholars have analyzed this trend within certain countries and as a regional tendency, but have not comprehensively addressed the Colombian case. Colombia is often considered the most Catholic of Latin American countries, with the Church historically much enmeshed in na...

Flux scaling: Ultimate regime

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Flux scaling: Ultimate regime. With the Nusselt number and the mixing length scales, we get the Nusselt number and Reynolds number (w'd/ν) scalings: and or. and. scaling expected to occur at extremely high Ra Rayleigh-Benard convection. Get the ultimate regime ...

Lanthanide shift reagents, binding, shift mechanisms and exchange

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boer, J.W.M. de

1977-01-01

Paramagnetic lanthanide shift reagents, when added to a solution of a substrate, induce shifts in the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrum of the substrate molecules. The induced shifts contain information about the structure of the shift reagent substrate complex. The structural information, however, may be difficult to extract because of the following effects: (1) different complexes between shift reagent and substrate may be present in solution, e.g. 1:1 and 1:2 complexes, and the shift observed is a weighed average of the shifts of the substrate nuclei in the different complexes; (2) the Fermi contact interaction, arising from the spin density at the nucleus, contributes to the induced shift; (3) chemical exchange effects may complicate the NMR spectrum. In this thesis, the results of an investigation into the influence of these effects on the NMR spectra of solutions containing a substrate and LSR are presented. The equations describing the pseudo contact and the Fermi contact shift are derived. In addition, it is shown how the modified Bloch equations describing the effect of the chemical exchange processes occurring in the systems studied can be reduced to the familiar equations for a two-site exchange case. The binding of mono- and bifunctional ethers to the shift reagent are reported. An analysis of the induced shifts is given. Finally, the results of the experiments performed to study the exchange behavior of dimethoxyethane and heptafluorodimethyloctanedionato ligands are presented

Relationships between copepod community structure, rainfall regimes, and hydrological variables in a tropical mangrove estuary (Amazon coast, Brazil)

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Magalhães, André; Pereira, Luci Cajueiro Carneiro; da Costa, Rauquírio Marinho

2015-03-01

The influence of rainfall and hydrological variables on the abundance and diversity of the copepod community was investigated on a monthly basis over an annual cycle in the Taperaçu mangrove estuary. In general, the results show that there were no clear spatial or tidal patterns in any biological variables during the study period, which was related to the reduced horizontal gradient in abiotic parameters, determined mainly by the morphological and morphodynamic features of the estuary. Nevertheless, seasonal and monthly trends were recorded in both the hydrological data and the abundance of the dominant copepod species. In particular, Pseudodiaptomus marshi (6,004.6 ± 22,231.6 ind m-3; F = 5.0, p < 0.05) and Acartia tonsa (905.6 ± 2,400.9 ind m-3; F = 14.6, p < 0.001) predominated during the rainy season, whereas Acartia lilljeborgii (750.8 ± 808.3 ind m-3; U = 413.0, p < 0.01) was the most abundant species in the dry season. A distinct process of succession was observed in the relative abundance of these species, driven by the shift in the rainfall regime, which affected hydrological, in particular salinity, and consequently the abundance of copepod species. We suggest that this may be a general pattern governing the dynamics of copepod populations in the estuaries of the Brazilian Amazonian region.

A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model

OpenAIRE

Mark W. French

2005-01-01

The cycle in output and hours worked is not symmetric: it behaves differently around recessions than in expansions. Similarly, the trend in multifactor productivity (MFP) seems to pass through different regimes; there was an extended period of slow MFP growth from about 1973 through 1995, and faster growth thereafter. Typical linear models and linear filters such as the Kalman filter deal poorly with asymmetry and regime changes. This paper attempts to determine more accurately and quickly an...

Day Service Provision for People with Intellectual Disabilities: A Case Study Mapping 15-Year Trends in Ireland

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Fleming, Padraic; McGilloway, Sinead; Barry, Sarah

2017-01-01

Background: Day services for people with intellectual disabilities are experiencing a global paradigm shift towards innovative person-centred models of care. This study maps changing trends in day service utilization to highlight how policy, emergent patterns and demographic trends influence service delivery. Methods: National intellectual…

Tilt shift determinations with spatial-carrier phase-shift method in temporal phase-shift interferometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Qian; Wang, Yang; He, Jianguo; Ji, Fang; Wang, Baorui

2014-01-01

An algorithm is proposed to deal with tilt-shift errors in temporal phase-shift interferometry (PSI). In the algorithm, the tilt shifts are detected with the spatial-carrier phase-shift (SCPS) method and then the tilt shifts are applied as priori information to the least-squares fittings of phase retrieval. The algorithm combines the best features of the SCPS and the temporal PSI. The algorithm could be applied to interferograms of arbitrary aperture without data extrapolation for the Fourier transform is not involved. Simulations and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. The statistics of simulation results show a satisfied accuracy in detecting tilt-shift errors. Comparisons of the measurements with and without environmental vibration show that the proposed algorithm could compensate tilt-shift errors and retrieve wavefront phase accurately. The algorithm provides an approach to retrieve wavefront phase for the temporal PSI in vibrating environment. (paper)

Design of high-order all-optical temporal differentiators based on multiple-phase-shifted fiber Bragg gratings.

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Kulishov, Mykola; Azaña, José

2007-05-14

A simple and general approach for designing practical all-optical (all-fiber) arbitrary-order time differentiators is introduced here for the first time. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Nth time derivative of an input optical waveform can be obtained by reflection of this waveform in a single uniform fiber Bragg grating (FBG) incorporating N &pi-phase shifts properly located along its grating profile. The general design procedure of an arbitrary-order optical time differentiator based on a multiple-phase-shifted FBG is described and numerically demonstrated for up to fourth-order time differentiation. Our simulations show that the proposed approach can provide optical operation bandwidths in the tens-of-GHz regime using readily feasible FBG structures.

Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

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Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

2013-04-01

The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

The trade regime and the climate regime. Institutional evolution and adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brewer, Thomas L.

2003-01-01

This article addresses concerns that the multilateral trade regime centered in the WTO and the emerging climate regime may conflict in ways that could be damaging to either or both. The article discusses the institutional and diplomatic context of these concerns, and it identifies the kinds of issues that are in question. The analysis suggests that there are opportunities for win-win outcomes in the interactions of the two regimes, for instance in the possibility of reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, there are also problematic areas where they intersect. A core issue-and as yet an unresolved one-is whether and how emission credit trading and other activities envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol would be subject to WTO rules. The resolution of this issue will affect many other issues as well. Additional specific issues about the interactions of particular provisions in WTO agreements and the Kyoto Protocol are analyzed in a subsequent companion article in Climate Policy

Demography management and challenges of alternating shift work; Demographiemanagement und Herausforderungen der Wechselschicht

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franzkowiak, Matthias [Arbeitsmedizin Rheinisches Revier, RWE Power AG, Bergheim (Germany); Schmitz, Michael [Personalcontrolling/-strategie, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany); Feldhaus, Christian [Arbeitsmedizin/Betriebliches Gesundheitsmanagement, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)

2009-07-01

RWE Power has launched a comprehensive process to develop strategies for future demography management. A special focus is on the challenges which result from the age structure of the workforce in connection with alternating shift work. A comprehensive catalogue of measures was developed which is currently being implemented. Among other things, it includes programmes for the employees on issues like health and ergonomics or optimisation of existing shift systems. Several follow-up projects are also included. The measures presented in this paper are meant to help in responding proactively to future demographic trends and the resulting challenges. (orig.)

Recent trends in laboratory automation in the pharmaceutical industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutherford, M L; Stinger, T

2001-05-01

The impact of robotics and automation on the pharmaceutical industry over the last two decades has been significant. In the last ten years, the emphasis of laboratory automation has shifted from the support of manufactured products and quality control of laboratory applications, to research and development. This shift has been the direct result of an increased emphasis on the identification, development and eventual marketing of innovative new products. In this article, we will briefly identify and discuss some of the current trends in laboratory automation in the pharmaceutical industry as they apply to research and development, including screening, sample management, combinatorial chemistry, ADME/Tox and pharmacokinetics.

SOUTH-WESTERN APUSENI MOUNTAINS SMALL RIVERS SEASONAL HYDROLOGICAL FLOW REGIME

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SOROCOVSCHI V.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The researched area overlaps the territory belonging to Crişul Alb and Crişul Negru river basins. The study is based on processing and interpretation data from 33 hydrometric stations of which 18 stations control hydrographic basins with surfaces of less than 150 km2. To highlight the seasonal hydrological flow regime, we took into account three time periods (1950-1967, 1950-2009 and 1970-2009. For all rivers the highest flow values appear during springtime, while the smallest contribution to the multiannual average volume is realized in autumn. The time variation of seasonal flow was highlighted by analysis and variation of extreme values coefficients and also by analysing seasonal flow trends that appeared in all three time periods.

Migrating Seals on Shifting Sands: Testing Alternate Hypotheses for Holocene Ecological and Cultural Change on the California Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, P. L.; Newsome, S. D.; Gifford-Gonzalez, D.

2001-12-01

The coast of California presented Holocene humans with a diverse set of ecosystems and geomorphic features, from large islands off a semi-desert mainland in the south, to a mix of sandy and rocky beaches abutting grassland and oak forest in central California, to a rocky coast hugged by dense coniferous forest in the north. Theories explaining trends in human resource use, settlement patterns, and demography are equally diverse, but can be categorized as 1) driven by diffusion of technological innovations from outside the region, 2) driven by population growth leading to more intensive extraction of resources, or 3) driven by climatic factors that affect the resource base. With respect to climatic shifts, attention has focused on a possible regime shift ca. 5500 BP, following peak Holocene warming, and on evidence for massive droughts and a drop in marine productivity ca. 1000 BP. While evidence for a coincidence between climatic, cultural, and ecological change is present, albeit complex, in southern California, similar data are largely lacking from central and northern California. We are using isotopic and archaeofaunal analysis to test ideas for ecological and cultural change in central California. Three features of the archaeological record are relevant. First, overall use of marine resources by coastal communities declined after 1000 BP. Second, northern fur seals, which are common in earlier sites, drop in abundance relative to remaining marine animals. We have previously established that Holocene humans in central California were hunting gregariously-breeding northern fur seals from mainland rookeries. These seals breed exclusively on offshore islands today, typically at high latitudes. Their restriction to these isolated sites today may be a response to human overexploitation of their mainland rookeries prehistorically. Finally, collection of oxygen and carbon isotope data from mussels at the archaeological sites, while still in a preliminary phase, has

Synergies between nonproliferation regimes: A pragmatic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Findlay, Trevor; Meier, Oliver

2001-01-01

Full text: With the recent progress in establishing international nonproliferation regimes, the question of synergies between different verification and monitoring regimes is becoming more acute. Three multilateral and universal nonproliferation organisations covering safeguards on civil nuclear materials, nuclear testing, and chemical weapons are up and running. A regime on biological weapons is under negotiation. Several regional organisations concerned with monitoring nonproliferation commitments in the nuclear field are in place; others are being established. Past discussions on synergies between these regimes have suffered from being too far-reaching. These discussions often have not reflected adequately the political difficulties of cooperation between regimes with different membership, scope and institutional set-up. This paper takes a pragmatic look at exploiting synergies and identifies some potential and real overlaps in the work between different verification regimes. It argues for a bottom-up approach and identifies building blocks for collaboration between verification regimes. By realising such, more limited potential for cooperation, the ground could be prepared for exploiting other synergies between these regimes. (author)

De Facto Regimes in International Law

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Jonte van Essen

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the study into this problem and possible solutions is of great significance. The 2011 developments in Northern Africa underline the need of contemporary research into this area. This essay aims to clarify the position of de facto regimes in international law and the influence on their status by actions of international actors. The author first argues that de facto regimes have rights and obligations under international law, which provide them with (some form of international legal personality. He then pleads for a reconsideration of the contemporary legal treatment of these regimes. The author argues against the current system of government recognition and proposes a system that better addresses the needs of both de facto regimes and the international community. 

Water Grabbing and the Role of Power: Shifting Water Governance in the Light of Agricultural Foreign Direct Investment

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Andrea Bues

2012-06-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the trend for foreign actors to secure land for agricultural production in low-income countries has increased substantially. The concurrent acquisition of water resources changes the institutional arrangement for water management in the investment areas. The consequences of 'land grabbing' on the local water governance systems have not so far been adequately examined. This paper presents an institutional analysis of a small-scale irrigation scheme in Ethiopia, where foreign and national horticultural farms started to use water from an irrigation canal that was formerly managed as a user-group common-pool resource by local smallholders. The study follows a qualitative case-study approach with semi-structured interviews as the main source of data. For the analysis we employed the Common-pool Resource Theory and the Distributional Theory of Institutional Change. We found that the former management regime changed in that most of the farmers’ water rights shifted to the investment farms. We found three key characteristics responsible for the different bargaining power of the two actor groups: dependency on natural resources, education and knowledge, and dependency on government support. We conclude that not only the struggle for land but also the directly linked struggle for water is led by diverging interests, which are determined by diverging power resources.

Multiple growth regimes: Insights from unified growth theory

OpenAIRE

Galor, Oded

2007-01-01

Unified Growth Theory uncovers the forces that contributed to the existence of multiple growth regimes and the emergence of convergence clubs. It suggests that differential timing of take-offs from stagnation to growth segmented economies into three fundamental regimes: slow growing economies in a Malthusian regime, fast growing countries in a sustained growth regime, and economies in the transition between these regimes. In contrast to existing research that links regime switching thresholds...

Research document no. 20. The constitutionalizing of the international legal regime of the petroleum investments and the world market reconstruction; Cahier de recherche no. 20. La constitutionalisation du regime juridique international des investissements petroliers et la (re)construction du marche mondial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Noel, P

2000-09-01

We analyse the new international legal regime for upstream petroleum investments and ''state contracts'' in general. In striking contrast to the ''New international economic order'' and ''Permanent sovereignty over natural resources'' ideologies of the 1960 and 1970, the emerging regime promotes the sanctification of contractual economic rights; the strict definition of State sovereign prerogatives, and the severe limitation of their conditions of exercise; the internationalization of the settlement of disputes through direct firm-State arbitration; the integration of national territories in a competitive, transparent, non-discriminative global market for investment. We demonstrate that it is rooted in the principles of liberal constitutionalism, hence promoting the internationalization of the Rule of Law. Such a legal regime is conducive to the expansion of the market for petroleum rights, as it restores the institutional conditions for credible commitment by the State. It will also accelerate the trend toward the ''commoditization'' of hydrocarbon resources. Bilateral investments treaties (especially the United States BIT program) as well as multilateral/regional instruments both general (draft MAI, MIGA, MERCOSUR, ALENA) and energy-specific (Energy Charter Treaty) are analysed as the main pillars and diffusion mechanisms of the new regime. A final paragraph indicates the way forward: the evaluation of the impact of this new legal regime on the world oil supply curve, especially as it eventually reaches - or not - some of the lowest-cost, biggest-resources countries. (author)

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Accuracy and precision of protein-ligand interaction kinetics determined from chemical shift titrations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Markin, Craig J.; Spyracopoulos, Leo, E-mail: leo.spyracopoulos@ualberta.ca [University of Alberta, Department of Biochemistry (Canada)

2012-12-15

NMR-monitored chemical shift titrations for the study of weak protein-ligand interactions represent a rich source of information regarding thermodynamic parameters such as dissociation constants (K{sub D}) in the micro- to millimolar range, populations for the free and ligand-bound states, and the kinetics of interconversion between states, which are typically within the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale. We recently developed two chemical shift titration methods wherein co-variation of the total protein and ligand concentrations gives increased precision for the K{sub D} value of a 1:1 protein-ligand interaction (Markin and Spyracopoulos in J Biomol NMR 53: 125-138, 2012). In this study, we demonstrate that classical line shape analysis applied to a single set of {sup 1}H-{sup 15}N 2D HSQC NMR spectra acquired using precise protein-ligand chemical shift titration methods we developed, produces accurate and precise kinetic parameters such as the off-rate (k{sub off}). For experimentally determined kinetics in the fast exchange regime on the NMR timescale, k{sub off} {approx} 3,000 s{sup -1} in this work, the accuracy of classical line shape analysis was determined to be better than 5 % by conducting quantum mechanical NMR simulations of the chemical shift titration methods with the magnetic resonance toolkit GAMMA. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the experimental precision for k{sub off} from line shape analysis of NMR spectra was determined to be 13 %, in agreement with the theoretical precision of 12 % from line shape analysis of the GAMMA simulations in the presence of noise and protein concentration errors. In addition, GAMMA simulations were employed to demonstrate that line shape analysis has the potential to provide reasonably accurate and precise k{sub off} values over a wide range, from 100 to 15,000 s{sup -1}. The validity of line shape analysis for k{sub off} values approaching intermediate exchange ({approx}100 s{sup -1}), may be facilitated by

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

Historical shifts in oxygenation regime as recorded in the laminated sediments of lake Montcortès (Central Pyrenees) support hypoxia as a continental-scale phenomenon.

Science.gov (United States)

Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Corella, Juan Pablo; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Buchaca, Teresa; Trapote, M Carmen; López, Pilar; Sigró, Javier; Rull, Valentí

2018-01-15

Recent expansion of anoxia has become a global issue and there is potential for worsening under global warming. At the same time, obtaining proper long-term instrumental oxygen records is difficult, thus reducing the possibility of recording long-term changes in oxygen shifts that can be related with climate or human influence. Varved lake sediments provide the better time frame to study this phenomenon at high resolution. We tracked the oxic/anoxic shifts of the varved Lake Montcortès since 1500CE, and tried to recognise anthropogenic and climatic influences combining biological and geochemical proxies. Four main scenarios emerged: 1) years with abrupt sediment inputs (A); 2) years with outstanding mixing and oxygenation of the water column (B); 3) years with strong stratification, anoxia, intense sulfur bacterial activity and increased biomass production (C); 4) years with stratification and anoxia, but relatively less biomass production (D). In line with current limnologic trends, high supra-annual variability in the occurrence of oxygenation events was observed. Interestingly, at least 45.3% of the years were mixing years and, like the meromictic ones, were mostly clustered into groups of consecutive years, thus alternating years of monomixis with years of meromixis. Most years of D belong to the period 1500-1820CE, when human activities were the most intense. Most years of A belonged to the climatic unstable period of 1850-1899CE. Years of B were irregularly distributed but were best represented in the period 1820-1849CE. Most years of C belonged to the 20th century. More than 90% of the years with climatic instrumental records belonged to B and C. Current climate warming seems to be taking control over the oxygenation capacity of the lake, especially since the second half of the 20th century. Our results support recent findings related to hypoxia spreading at the global scale. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Is there a shift to 'active nanostructures'?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Youtie, Jan; Porter, Alan L.; Shapira, Philip

2010-01-01

It has been suggested that an important transition in the long-run trajectory of nanotechnology development is a shift from passive to active nanostructures. Such a shift could present different or increased societal impacts and require new approaches for risk assessment. An active nanostructure 'changes or evolves its state during its operation,' according to the National Science Foundation's (2006) Active Nanostructures and Nanosystems grant solicitation. Active nanostructure examples include nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS), nanomachines, self-healing materials, targeted drugs and chemicals, energy storage devices, and sensors. This article considers two questions: (a) Is there a 'shift' to active nanostructures? (b) How can we characterize the prototypical areas into which active nanostructures may emerge? We build upon the NSF definition of active nanostructures to develop a research publication search strategy, with a particular intent to distinguish between passive and active nanotechnologies. We perform bibliometric analyses and describe the main publication trends from 1995 to 2008. We then describe the prototypes of research that emerge based on reading the abstracts and review papers encountered in our search. Preliminary results suggest that there is a sharp rise in active nanostructures publications in 2006, and this rise is maintained in 2007 and through to early 2008. We present a typology that can be used to describe the kind of active nanostructures that may be commercialized and regulated in the future.

Is there a shift to "active nanostructures"?

Science.gov (United States)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Youtie, Jan; Porter, Alan L.; Shapira, Philip

2010-01-01

It has been suggested that an important transition in the long-run trajectory of nanotechnology development is a shift from passive to active nanostructures. Such a shift could present different or increased societal impacts and require new approaches for risk assessment. An active nanostructure "changes or evolves its state during its operation," according to the National Science Foundation's (2006) Active Nanostructures and Nanosystems grant solicitation. Active nanostructure examples include nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS), nanomachines, self-healing materials, targeted drugs and chemicals, energy storage devices, and sensors. This article considers two questions: (a) Is there a "shift" to active nanostructures? (b) How can we characterize the prototypical areas into which active nanostructures may emerge? We build upon the NSF definition of active nanostructures to develop a research publication search strategy, with a particular intent to distinguish between passive and active nanotechnologies. We perform bibliometric analyses and describe the main publication trends from 1995 to 2008. We then describe the prototypes of research that emerge based on reading the abstracts and review papers encountered in our search. Preliminary results suggest that there is a sharp rise in active nanostructures publications in 2006, and this rise is maintained in 2007 and through to early 2008. We present a typology that can be used to describe the kind of active nanostructures that may be commercialized and regulated in the future.

Night Shift Work, Genetic Risk, and Type 2 Diabetes in the UK Biobank.

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Céline; Dashti, Hassan S; Lane, Jacqueline M; Anderson, Simon G; Schernhammer, Eva S; Rutter, Martin K; Saxena, Richa; Scheer, Frank A J L

2018-04-01

To examine the effects of past and current night shift work and genetic type 2 diabetes vulnerability on type 2 diabetes odds. In the UK Biobank, we examined associations of current ( N = 272,214) and lifetime ( N = 70,480) night shift work exposure with type 2 diabetes risk (6,770 and 1,191 prevalent cases, respectively). For 180,704 and 44,141 unrelated participants of European ancestry (4,002 and 726 cases, respectively) with genetic data, we assessed whether shift work exposure modified the relationship between a genetic risk score (comprising 110 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) for type 2 diabetes and prevalent diabetes. Compared with day workers, all current night shift workers were at higher multivariable-adjusted odds for type 2 diabetes (none or rare night shifts: odds ratio [OR] 1.15 [95% CI 1.05-1.26]; some nights: OR 1.18 [95% CI 1.05-1.32]; and usual nights: OR 1.44 [95% CI 1.19-1.73]), except current permanent night shift workers (OR 1.09 [95% CI 0.93-1.27]). Considering a person's lifetime work schedule and compared with never shift workers, working more night shifts per month was associated with higher type 2 diabetes odds (8/month: OR 1.36 [95% CI 1.14-1.62]; P trend = 0.001). The association between genetic type 2 diabetes predisposition and type 2 diabetes odds was not modified by shift work exposure. Our findings show that night shift work, especially rotating shift work including night shifts, is associated with higher type 2 diabetes odds and that the number of night shifts worked per month appears most relevant for type 2 diabetes odds. Also, shift work exposure does not modify genetic risk for type 2 diabetes, a novel finding that warrants replication. © 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.

A long-term multi-proxy record of varved sediments highlights climate-induced mixing-regime shift in a large hard-water lake ~5000 years ago

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Finsinger

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The long-term terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem dynamics spanning between approximately 6200 and 4800 cal BP were investigated using pollen, diatoms, pigments, charcoal, and geochemistry from varved sediments collected in a large stratified perialpine lake, Lago Grande di Avigliana, in the Italian Alps. Marked changes were detected in diatom and pigment assemblages and in sediment composition at ~4900 cal BP. Organic matter rapidly increased and diatom assemblages shifted from oligotrophic to oligo-mesotrophic planktonic assemblages suggesting that nutrients increased at that time. Because land cover, erosion, and fire frequency did not change significantly, external nutrient sources were possibly not essential in controlling the lake-ecosystem dynamics. This is also supported by redundancy analysis, which showed that variables explaining significant amounts of variance in the diatom data were not the ones related to changes in the catchment. Instead, the broad coincidence between the phytoplankton dynamics and rising lake-levels, cooler temperatures, and stronger spring winds in the northern Mediterranean borderlands possibly points to the effects of climate change on the nutrient recycling in the lake by means of the control that climate can exert on mixing depth. We hypothesize that the increased P-release rates and higher organic-matter accumulation rates, proceeded by enhanced precipitation of iron sulphides, were possibly caused by deeper and stronger mixing leading to enhanced input of nutrients from the anoxic hypolimnion into the epilimnion. Although we cannot completely rule out the influence of minor land-cover changes due to human activities, it may be hypothesized that climate-induced cumulative effects related to mixing regime and P-recycling from sediments influenced the aquatic-ecosystem dynamics.

Investigating the effectiveness of different forms of mineral resources governance in meeting the objectives of the UK petroleum fiscal regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdo, Hafez

2014-01-01

After 40 years of oil investments, the UK is now a mature oil province. During these 40 years or so, the UK Government has changed the type of governance it uses to manage its petroleum resources. This paper introduces the theoretical background to two models of mineral resource governance: proprietorial and non-proprietorial regimes. It investigates how adoption any of these two models by the UK Government has historically affected the achievement of the objectives of the UK petroleum fiscal regime. The analysis tracks the changes in the governance of the UK petroleum resources using changes in the average petroleum tax rate, and how this last influenced the achievement of the objectives of the UK petroleum Regime. The findings remain significant for their policy implications. The study concludes that the UK Government adopted a proprietorial type of mineral governance during the period 1975–1982, before changing to a non-proprietorial regime in the period 1983–2000. Since 2000 it has begun to move back towards a proprietorial style of governance. The excessive use of one type of these modes of governance leads to the objectives of the UK petroleum fiscal regime being not met. - Highlights: • UK petroleum fiscal regime has historically been unstable, It has shifted between two different types of minerals governance. • Proprietorial and non-proprietorial philosophies of minerals governance have been used exchangeable in the UK. • Excessive use of either type of governance restricts meeting objectives of the UK petroleum fiscal regime. • The UK needs to use a transparent type of minerals governance by using tools from the two governance philosophies

Measuring the effectiveness of international environmental regimes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helm, C.; Sprinz, D.F.

1999-05-01

While past research has emphasized the importance of international regimes for international governance, systematic assessments of regime effects are missing. This article derives a standardized measurement concept for the effectiveness of international environmental regimes by developing an operational rational choice calculus to evaluate actual policy simultaneously against a non-regime counterfactual and a collective optimum. Subsequently, the empirical feasibility of the measurement instrument is demonstrated by way of two international treaties regulating transboundary air pollution in Europe. The results demonstrate that the regimes indeed show positive effects - but fall substantially short of the collective optima. (orig.)

Two Regimes of Bandgap Red Shift and Partial Ambient Retention in Pressure-Treated Two-Dimensional Perovskites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Gang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Kong, Lingping [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Guo, Peijun [Center; Stoumpos, Constantinos C. [Department; Hu, Qingyang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Liu, Zhenxian [Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Cai, Zhonghou [Advanced; Gosztola, David J. [Center; Mao, Ho-kwang [Center for High Pressure Science and Technology Advanced Research, Shanghai 201203, China; Geophysical Laboratory, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC 20015, United States; Kanatzidis, Mercouri G. [Department; Schaller, Richard D. [Center; Department

2017-10-09

The discovery of elevated environmental stability in two-dimensional (2D) Ruddlesden–Popper hybrid perovskites represents a significant advance in low-cost, high-efficiency light absorbers. In comparison to 3D counterparts, 2D perovskites of organo-lead-halides exhibit wider, quantum-confined optical bandgaps that reduce the wavelength range of light absorption. Here, we characterize the structural and optical properties of 2D hybrid perovskites as a function of hydrostatic pressure. We observe bandgap narrowing with pressure of 633 meV that is partially retained following pressure release due to an atomic reconfiguration mechanism. We identify two distinct regimes of compression dominated by the softer organic and less compressible inorganic sublattices. Our findings, which also include PL enhancement, correlate well with density functional theory calculations and establish structure–property relationships at the atomic scale. These concepts can be expanded into other hybrid perovskites and suggest that pressure/strain processing could offer a new route to improved materials-by-design in applications.

Accommodating human values in the climate regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosalind Cook

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The climate regime addresses one of the most important challenges facing humankind today. However, while the environmental and economic sides of the problem are well represented, it lacks the inclusion of social and human aspects. The human rights regime, in contrast, is a regime which has been established precisely to implement human values. This article ex-plains the problems of climate change in terms of human values and argues that some proce-dures from the human rights regime offer possibilities for improvement. It is submitted that through the inclusion of human rights instruments, such as individual communication, pro-gressive realisation and authoritative interpretation, the inclusion of human values into the climate regime will be facilitated. This article presents these instruments and discusses their potential for inclusion in the climate regime.

State Structure and Political Regime Structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul – Iulian Nedelcu

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The political regime is the concrete form of organization and functioning of political system andtherefore, the regime means the concrete way of organize, institutionalize and function a political systemand of the exercise of political power by a social-political force in a social community or global socialistem. The political regime is not limited to institutions and state bodies, but it covers the entire politicalsystem. Form of expression in social practice plan is the result of balance of forces between classes ofcitizens, organizations, between them and civil society and politics.Designates the concrete form ofgovernment formation and organization, of state bodies, in aspect of their characteristics and principles, therelations between them and other state bodies, and also as the relationship between them and otherinstitutionalized forms of political systems. Instead, the political regime is an explicit realization ofaxiological operations, a specific hierarchy of values, in general and political values, in particular. Even ifsome elements of the political regime overlap to some extent and in some respects, those of form orstructure of guvernamnt state, thus they dissolve his identity, distinct quality of being specific traits of thepolitical regime.

Measurements of the intrinsic quantum efficiency and absorption length of tetraphenyl butadiene thin films in the vacuum ultraviolet regime

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, Christopher; Gann, Gabriel Orebi; Gehman, Victor

2018-04-01

A key enabling technology for many liquid noble gas (LNG) detectors is the use of the common wavelength shifting medium tetraphenyl butadiene (TPB). TPB thin films are used to shift ultraviolet scintillation light into the visible spectrum for detection and event reconstruction. Understanding the wavelength shifting efficiency and optical properties of these films are critical aspects in detector performance and modeling and hence in the ultimate physics sensitivity of such experiments. This article presents the first measurements of the room-temperature microphysical quantum efficiency for vacuum-deposited TPB thin films - a result that is independent of the optics of the TPB or substrate. Also presented are measurements of the absorption length in the vacuum ultraviolet regime, the secondary re-emission efficiency, and more precise results for the "black-box" efficiency across a broader spectrum of wavelengths than previous results. The low-wavelength sensitivity, in particular, would allow construction of LNG scintillator detectors with lighter elements (Ne, He) to target light mass WIMPs.

Totalitäre Regimes

OpenAIRE

Merkel, Wolfgang

2004-01-01

"The development of the term and the analytical concept of totalitarianism have gone through several stages since the 1920s. However, even in its most sophisticated form, the version seen in Friedrich/ Brzezinski, the concept exhibits substantial systematic classification problems and analytical weaknesses. This article attempts to frame the type of totalitarian regime within a general typology of political regimes. Special attention is dedicated to the problem of distinguishing autocra...

'CANDLE' burnup regime after LWR regime

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekimoto, Hiroshi; Nagata, Akito

2008-01-01

CANDLE (Constant Axial shape of Neutron flux, nuclide densities and power shape During Life of Energy producing reactor) burnup strategy can derive many merits. From safety point of view, the change of excess reactivity along burnup is theoretically zero, and the core characteristics, such as power feedback coefficients and power peaking factor, are not changed along burnup. Application of this burnup strategy to neutron rich fast reactors makes excellent performances. Only natural or depleted uranium is required for the replacing fuels. About 40% of natural or depleted uranium undergoes fission without the conventional reprocessing and enrichment. If the LWR produced energy of X Joules, the CANDLE reactor can produce about 50X Joules from the depleted uranium left at the enrichment facility for the LWR fuel. If we can say LWRs have produced energy sufficient for full 20 years, we can produce the energy for 1000 years by using the CANDLE reactors with depleted uranium. We need not mine any uranium ore, and do not need reprocessing facility. The burnup of spent fuel becomes 10 times. Therefore, the spent fuel amount per produced energy is also reduced to one-tenth. The details of the scenario of CANDLE burnup regime after LWR regime will be presented at the symposium. (author)

Isotopic shift in even-even barium isotopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karim, Afaque; Naz, Tabassum; Ahmad, Shakeb

2017-01-01

We have discussed the correlation between a nuclear shape and its matter distribution. Here, we present the root-mean-square radii (r rms ) and rms charge radius (r ch ). We have also discussed the isotopic shift in terms of the observable ‹Δr 2 c › N,82 and its differential ‹Δr 2 c › N-2,N . We present nuclear radii evaluated using different interactions. Neutron radii and charge radii for all the isotopic chains are shown. Neutron radii for Ba isotopes show an increasing trend with the neutron number for all isotopic chains. One can observe a clear kink about magic number N=82

Trends and Variability of North Pacific Polar Lows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The 6-hourly 1948–2010 NCEP 1 reanalyses have been dynamically downscaled for the region of the North Pacific. With a detecting-and-tracking algorithm, the climatology of North Pacific Polar Lows has been constructed. This derived climatology is consistent with the limited observational evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution. The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability and a small positive trend. A canonical correlation analysis describes the conditioning of the formation of Polar Lows by characteristic seasonal mean flow regimes, which favor, or limit, cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.

Preference shifts, structural breaks and the domestic demand for Chilean wine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristián Troncoso-Valverde

2004-09-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates possible changes in Chilean domestic consumer preferences for wine through the estimation of a demand function that allows for structural breaks and regime shifts in the cointegrating relationship. Our findings support both higher own-price elasticity and higher substitutability between wine and beer after 1982, when a shift in regime in the demand function is found. We believe our findings might be due to the introduction of an increasing number of wine varieties in Chile during the last two decades. We argue that more wine varieties affect domestic consumer preferences by altering the product diversity available in the domestic market.El presente artículo investiga posibles cambios en las preferencias de los consumidores chilenos de vino por medio de la estimación de una función de demanda que permite quiebres estructurales y cambios de régimen en el vector de cointegración de la misma. Nuestros resultados muestran una alta elasticidad - precio y una mayor sustitución entre vino y cerveza a partir de 1982, fecha en la cual un cambio de régimen en la función de demanda es detectado. Dichos resultados pueden ser atribuidos a la introducción de un creciente número de variedades de vino en Chile en las últimas dos décadas. Así, la introducción de un mayor número de variedades de vino afecta las preferencias de los consumidores chilenos al alterar la variedad de productos disponibles en el mercado chileno de vino.Este artigo investiga possíveis mudanças nas preferências dos consumidores de vinho por meio da estimação de uma função da demanda que permite a ruptura estrutural e a mudança do regime no vetor da co-integração do mesmo. Nossos resultados mostram uma elevada elasticidade - preço e uma maior substituição entre o vinho e a cerveja a partir de 1982, data na qual uma mudança do regime na função da demanda é detectada. Estes resultados podem ser atribuídos à introdução de um n

Supply regimes in fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Max

2006-01-01

Supply in fisheries is traditionally known for its backward bending nature, owing to externalities in production. Such a supply regime, however, exist only for pure open access fisheries. Since most fisheries worldwide are neither pure open access, nor optimally managed, rather between the extremes......, the traditional understanding of supply regimes in fisheries needs modification. This paper identifies through a case study of the East Baltic cod fishery supply regimes in fisheries, taking alternative fisheries management schemes and mesh size limitations into account. An age-structured Beverton-Holt based bio......-economic supply model with mesh sizes is developed. It is found that in the presence of realistic management schemes, the supply curves are close to vertical in the relevant range. Also, the supply curve under open access with mesh size limitations is almost vertical in the relevant range, owing to constant...

Research document no. 20. The constitutionalizing of the international legal regime of the petroleum investments and the world market reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noel, P.

2000-09-01

We analyse the new international legal regime for upstream petroleum investments and ''state contracts'' in general. In striking contrast to the ''New international economic order'' and ''Permanent sovereignty over natural resources'' ideologies of the 1960 and 1970, the emerging regime promotes the sanctification of contractual economic rights; the strict definition of State sovereign prerogatives, and the severe limitation of their conditions of exercise; the internationalization of the settlement of disputes through direct firm-State arbitration; the integration of national territories in a competitive, transparent, non-discriminative global market for investment. We demonstrate that it is rooted in the principles of liberal constitutionalism, hence promoting the internationalization of the Rule of Law. Such a legal regime is conducive to the expansion of the market for petroleum rights, as it restores the institutional conditions for credible commitment by the State. It will also accelerate the trend toward the ''commoditization'' of hydrocarbon resources. Bilateral investments treaties (especially the United States BIT program) as well as multilateral/regional instruments both general (draft MAI, MIGA, MERCOSUR, ALENA) and energy-specific (Energy Charter Treaty) are analysed as the main pillars and diffusion mechanisms of the new regime. A final paragraph indicates the way forward: the evaluation of the impact of this new legal regime on the world oil supply curve, especially as it eventually reaches - or not - some of the lowest-cost, biggest-resources countries. (author)

Impacts of changing climate and snow cover on the flow regime of Jhelum River, Western Himalayas

KAUST Repository

Azmat, Muhammad

2016-11-17

This study examines the change in climate variables and snow cover dynamics and their impact on the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in Western Himalayas. This study utilized daily streamflow records from Mangla dam, spanning a time period of 19 years (1995–2013), along with precipitation and temperature data over 52 years (1961–2013) from 12 different climate stations in the catchment. Additionally, moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing product MOD10A2 was utilized to analyze the change in snow cover dynamics during 2000–2013. The Pearson and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to scrutinize snow cover trends and correlation between temperature, precipitation, snow cover area (SCA) and streamflows records. Basin-wide trend analysis showed a slightly increasing tendency in temperature (τ = 0.098) and precipitation (τ = 0.094), during the years 1961–2013. The changes in streamflow indicated a positive (r > 0.12) relationship with respect to temperature but variable trends (r = −0.45–0.41) with respect to precipitation during both the winter and monsoon seasons. This indicates that temperature has a significant impact on the hydrological regime of the basin. MODIS data-based investigations suggested an expansion in SCA during 2000–2013. The changes in SCA of high-altitude zones (>2000 m a.s.l.) depicted a stronger positive correlation with climate variables and streamflow compared with those obtained for low-altitude regions (<2000 m a.s.l.). Overall, these results signify that high-altitude areas contribute to the streamflow largely in the form of snow- and glacier-melt during the early summer season. The streamflow is then further augmented by monsoon rainfall in the low-elevation regions during late summer.

Occupational history of night shift work and Parkinson's disease in Denmark.

Science.gov (United States)

Schernhammer, Eva S; Lassen, Christina F; Kenborg, Line; Ritz, Beate; Olsen, Jørgen H; Hansen, Johnni

2015-07-01

We investigated whether working night shifts was associated with the risk of Parkinson's disease (PD). Between January 2008 and December 2010, we recruited 1808 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of idiopathic PD from Denmark and 1876 population controls matched by year of birth and gender. Information on lifelong occupational history, including information on night work, smoking, caffeine and alcohol consumption habits, and family history of PD was collected through structured telephone interviews. Overall, there was no association between a history of night shift work and PD [odds ratio (OR) for any type of night work (ie, either permanent or rotating night work) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.86-1.21]. Compared with persons who never worked night shifts, risks of those with longer durations of night work did not appear to differ (OR <10 years=0.95, 95% CI 0.75-1.19, OR 10-19 years= 1.09, 95% CI 0.77-1.53, OR ≥20 years=1.05, 95% CI 0.81-1.37, P for trend=0.23). Associations were similar among men and women. These data suggest that working night shifts is not associated with PD or that low tolerance for night shift work is an early marker of PD. Due to the novel and exploratory nature of these findings, confirmation is needed.

INTEREST RATE REGIME AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN CAPITAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edirin Jeroh

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study x-ray’s the interest rates regime in Nigeria as it affects the performance of the Nigerian Capital Market. In order to achieve this objective, relevant data for a period of 33 years spanning from 1981 – 2013 were obtained from the Factbook of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, CBN Statistical Bulletin as well as the annual accounts of quoted firms for the relevant years. The data obtained were analysed with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS technique. The result from our analysis reveal among others that changes in interest rate regimes have majorly influenced the level of the performance of the Nigerian Capital Market. Based on the above, we recommend that capital market regulators and other regulatory agencies should keep an eye on movements in interest rates and the Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR (now MPR and watch their trend. We also recommend that efforts must be put in place to establish a policy review and reassessment mechanism that would help in assessing the impact of selected policy measures on the economy so that policy makers would know the effectiveness and efficiency of designed policies and be guided in the policy review and development process in the country.

Shift Work and the Relationship with Metabolic Syndrome in Chinese Aged Workers

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Yanjun; Rong, Yi; Huang, Xiji; Lai, Hanpeng; Luo, Xin; Zhang, Zhihong; Liu, Yuewei; He, Meian; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2015-01-01

Background Shift work is indicated to be associated with adverse metabolic disorders. However, potential effects of shift work on metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components have not been well established. Methods In total, 26,382 workers from Dongfeng-Tongji Cohort were included in this study. Information on shift work history was gathered through questionnaires and metabolic traits were measured. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for long-term shift work related with MetS and each component, respectively. Further stratification analysis was performed to detect the differences on MetS between female and male shift workers. Results Long-term shift work was associated with MetS without adjusting for any confounders. Compared with the group of non-shift work, the multivariate-adjusted ORs (95%CI) of MetS associated with 1–10, 11−20, and ≥20y of shift work were 1.05 (0.95−1.16), 1.14 (1.03−1.26), 1.16 (1.01−1.31), respectively. In female workers, we found a dose-response relationship that every 10 years increase in shift work was associated with a 10% (95% CI: 1%−20%) elevated OR of MetS, while no significant dose-response trend was found among male workers. Furthermore, shift work duration was significantly associated with ORs of high blood pressure (1.07, 1.01−1.13), long waist circumference (1.10, 1.01−1.20) and high glucose levels (1.09, 1.04−1.15). No significant association was observed between shift work and low HDL cholesterol) and raised triglyceride levels. Conclusions Long-term shift work was associated with metabolic syndrome and the association might differ by gender in retired workers. Applicable intervention strategies are needed for prevention of metabolic disorders for shift workers. PMID:25761114

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

Science.gov (United States)

Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

On the fog variability over south Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syed, F.S. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden); Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad (Pakistan); Koernich, H.; Tjernstroem, M. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, The Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm (Sweden)

2012-12-15

An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of ''cross-over temperature'' combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards. (orig.)

Alteration of Rumen Bacteria and Protozoa Through Grazing Regime as a Tool to Enhance the Bioactive Fatty Acid Content of Bovine Milk.

Science.gov (United States)

Bainbridge, Melissa L; Saldinger, Laurel K; Barlow, John W; Alvez, Juan P; Roman, Joe; Kraft, Jana

2018-01-01

Rumen microorganisms are the origin of many bioactive fatty acids (FA) found in ruminant-derived food products. Differences in plant leaf anatomy and chemical composition between cool- and warm-season pastures may alter rumen microorganisms, potentially enhancing the quantity/profile of bioactive FA available for incorporation into milk. The objective of this study was to identify rumen bacteria and protozoa and their cellular FA when cows grazed a warm-season annual, pearl millet (PM), in comparison to a diverse cool-season pasture (CSP). Individual rumen digesta samples were obtained from five Holstein cows in a repeated measures design with 28-day periods. The treatment sequence was PM, CSP, then PM. Microbial DNA was extracted from rumen digesta and sequence reads were produced with Illumina MiSeq. Fatty acids (FA) were identified in rumen bacteria and protozoa using gas-liquid chromatography/mass spectroscopy. Microbial communities shifted in response to grazing regime. Bacteria of the phylum Bacteroidetes were more abundant during PM than CSP ( P rumenic acid, and α-linolenic acid in milk. In conclusion, grazing regime can potentially be used to alter microbial communities shifting the FA profile of microbial cells, and subsequently, alter the milk FA profile.

Demarcating Circulation Regimes of Synchronously Rotating Terrestrial Planets within the Habitable Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Wolf, Eric. T.; Joshi, Manoj; Zhang, Xi; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

2018-01-01

We investigate the atmospheric dynamics of terrestrial planets in synchronous rotation within the habitable zone of low-mass stars using the Community Atmosphere Model. The surface temperature contrast between the day and night hemispheres decreases with an increase in incident stellar flux, which is opposite the trend seen in gas giants. We define three dynamical regimes in terms of the equatorial Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length. The slow rotation regime has a mean zonal circulation that spans from the day to the night sides, which occurs for planets around stars with effective temperatures of 3300–4500 K (rotation period > 20 days), with both the Rossby deformation radius and the Rhines length exceeding the planetary radius. Rapid rotators have a mean zonal circulation that partially spans a hemisphere and with banded cloud formation beneath the substellar point, which occurs for planets orbiting stars with effective temperatures of less than 3000 K (rotation period days), with the Rossby deformation radius less than the planetary radius. In between is the Rhines rotation regime, which retains a thermally direct circulation from the day side to the night side but also features midlatitude turbulence-driven zonal jets. Rhines rotators occur for planets around stars in the range of 3000–3300 K (rotation period ∼5–20 days), where the Rhines length is greater than the planetary radius but the Rossby deformation radius is less than the planetary radius. The dynamical state can be observationally inferred from a comparison of the morphologies of the thermal emission phase curves of synchronously rotating planets.

Fire regimes and vegetation responses in two Mediterranean-climate regions

Science.gov (United States)

Montenegro, G.; Ginocchio, R.; Segura, A.; Keely, J.E.; Gomez, M.

2004-01-01

Wildfires resulting from thunderstorms are common in some Mediterranean-climate regions, such as southern California, and have played an important role in the ecology and evolution of the flora. Mediterranean-climate regions are major centers for human population and thus anthropogenic impacts on fire regimes may have important consequences on these plant formations. However, changes in fire regimes may have different impacts on Mediterranean type-ecosystems depending on the capability of plants to respond to such perturbations. Therefore, we compare here fire regimes and vegetation responses of two Mediterranean-climate regions which differ in wildfire regimes and history of human occupation, the central zone of Chile (matorral) and the southern area of California in United States (chaparral). In Chile almost all fires result from anthropogenic activities, whereas lightning fires resulting from thunderstorms are frequent in California. In both regions fires are more frequent in summer, due to high accumulation of dry plant biomass for ignition. Humans have markedly increased fires frequency both in the matorral and chaparral, but extent of burned areas has remained unaltered, probably due to better fire suppression actions and a decline in the built-up of dry plant fuel associated to increased landscape fragmentation with less flammable agricultural and urban developments. As expected, post-fire plant regeneration responses differs between the matorral and chaparral due to differences in the importance of wildfires as a natural evolutionary force in the system. Plants from the chaparral show a broader range of post-fire regeneration responses than the matorral, from basal resprouting, to lignotuber resprouting, and to fire-stimulated germination and flowering with fire-specific clues such as heat shock, chemicals from smoke or charred wood. Plants from the matorral have some resprouting capabilities after fire, but these probably evolved from other environmental

Trend in coral-algal phase shift in the Mandapam group of islands, Gulf of Mannar Marine Biosphere Reserve, India

Science.gov (United States)

Machendiranathan, M.; Senthilnathan, L.; Ranith, R.; Saravanakumar, A.; Thangaradjou, T.; Choudhry, S. B.; Sasamal, S. K.

2016-12-01

The present study revealed proliferation of macro-algae modifying coral reef ecosystems in a different manner due to diseases and sedimentations in the Mandapam group of islands in the Gulf of Mannar. Benthic surveys were conducted with major attack of seven coral reefs diseases with high sedimentation rate, nine species of fleshy macro-algae ( Turbinaria ornata, Turbinaria conaides, Caulerpa scalpelliformis, Caulerpa racemosa, Kappaphycus alvarezii, Padina gymnosphora, Sargassum wightii, Ulva reticulata and Calurpa lentillifera) proliferation against major corals life forms (Acropora branching, Acropora digitate, Acropora tabulate, coral massive, coral submassive, coral foliose and coral encrusting). The results confirm that diseased corals most favor to macro-algae growth (15.27%) rather than the sedimentation covered corals (8.24 %). In the degradation of coral life forms, massive corals were more highly damaged (7.05%) than any other forms. Within a short period of time (May to September), coral coverage shrank to 17.4% from 21.9%, macro-algae increased 23.51% and the average sedimentation rate attained 77.52 mg cm-2d-1 with persisting coral reef diseases of 17.59%. The Pearson correlation showed that the coral cover decreased with increasing macro-algae growth, which was statistically significant ( r = -0.774, n = 100, P K. alvarezii, P. gymnosphora and C. lentillifera increased with percentages of 6.0, 5.8, 5.7, 4.9, 4.2, 3.7, 2.7 and 1.9, respectively. If this trend continues, the next generation of new recruit corals will undoubtedly lead to a phase shift in Gulf of Mannar corals.

Temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities under different moisture regimes: high-throughput sequencing and bioinformatics analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Semenov, Mikhail; Zhuravleva, Anna; Semenov, Vyacheslav; Yevdokimov, Ilya; Larionova, Alla

2017-04-01

Recent climate scenarios predict not only continued global warming but also an increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as strong changes in temperature and precipitation regimes. Microorganisms are well known to be more sensitive to changes in environmental conditions than to other soil chemical and physical parameters. In this study, we determined the shifts in soil microbial community structure as well as indicative taxa in soils under three moisture regimes using high-throughput Illumina sequencing and range of bioinformatics approaches for the assessment of sequence data. Incubation experiments were performed in soil-filled (Greyic Phaeozems Albic) rhizoboxes with maize and without plants. Three contrasting moisture regimes were being simulated: 1) optimal wetting (OW), a watering 2-3 times per week to maintain soil moisture of 20-25% by weight; 2) periodic wetting (PW), with alternating periods of wetting and drought; and 3) constant insufficient wetting (IW), while soil moisture of 12% by weight was permanently maintained. Sampled fresh soils were homogenized, and the total DNA of three replicates was extracted using the FastDNA® SPIN kit for Soil. DNA replicates were combined in a pooled sample and the DNA was used for PCR with specific primers for the 16S V3 and V4 regions. In order to compare variability between different samples and replicates within a single sample, some DNA replicates treated separately. The products were purified and submitted to Illumina MiSeq sequencing. Sequence data were evaluated by alpha-diversity (Chao1 and Shannon H' diversity indexes), beta-diversity (UniFrac and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity), heatmap, tagcloud, and plot-bar analyses using the MiSeq Reporter Metagenomics Workflow and R packages (phyloseq, vegan, tagcloud). Shannon index varied in a rather narrow range (4.4-4.9) with the lowest values for microbial communities under PW treatment. Chao1 index varied from 385 to 480, being a more flexible

Trends in types of dermatology books available over the last ten years.

Science.gov (United States)

Aquino, Lisa L; Wu, Jashin J

2009-06-15

Shifts in interest toward cosmetic and surgical dermatology and away from medical and academic dermatology have been observed in recent years. We hypothesized that this trend would be evident in the types of books available for purchase from a major medical textbook supplier. Books published from 1998-2008 were categorized by type and statistical testing was performed to determine if this trend has been reflected in books published. The percentage of medical dermatology books decreased over time, whereas the percentage of cosmetic and surgical dermatology books increased over time.

Evaluation of Calendar Year 1996 groundwater and surface water quality data for the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-08-01

This report presents an evaluation of the groundwater monitoring data obtained in the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime) during calendar year (CY) 1996. The monitoring data were collected for the multiple programmatic purposes of the Y-12 Plant Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP) and have been reported in Calendar Year 1996 Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report for the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The Annual Monitoring report presents only the results of the monitoring data evaluations required for waste management sites addressed under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) post-closure permit for the Bear Creek Regime. The Annual Monitoring Report also serves as a consolidated reference for the groundwater and surface water monitoring data obtained throughout the Bear Creek Regime under the auspices of the Y-12 GWPP. This report provides an evaluation of the CY 1996 monitoring data with an emphasis on regime-wide groundwater and surface water quality and long-term concentration trends of regulated and non-regulated monitoring parameters

Evaluation of Calendar Year 1996 groundwater and surface water quality data for the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-08-01

This report presents an evaluation of the groundwater monitoring data obtained in the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime) during calendar year (CY) 1996. The monitoring data were collected for the multiple programmatic purposes of the Y-12 Plant Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP) and have been reported in Calendar Year 1996 Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report for the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The Annual Monitoring report presents only the results of the monitoring data evaluations required for waste management sites addressed under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) post-closure permit for the Bear Creek Regime. The Annual Monitoring Report also serves as a consolidated reference for the groundwater and surface water monitoring data obtained throughout the Bear Creek Regime under the auspices of the Y-12 GWPP. This report provides an evaluation of the CY 1996 monitoring data with an emphasis on regime-wide groundwater and surface water quality and long-term concentration trends of regulated and non-regulated monitoring parameters.

De Facto Regimes in International Law

OpenAIRE

Essen, Jonte van

2012-01-01

The ambiguous position of de facto regimes in international law has long been the subject of scholarly debate and a source of political conflict. An assessment of the current standing of these regimes in international law and the consequences of actions by international actors on this status has, however, been long overdue. The manner in which de facto regimes are regarded internationally has serious consequences for the individuals under the influence of this legal grey area. Therefore, the ...

Transient regimes in a heavy water reactor; Regimes transitoires dans un reacteur a eau lourde

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raievski, V [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay(France). Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1953-07-01

We studied the variations of power and reactivity of a reactor when we raise in a continuous way the starting plates. During the subcritical regime (negative reactivity), the power is determined by reactivity and by the intensity of the sources of photo neutrons, produced during the previous work of the reactor. When, during the rise of the plates, the reactor, pass by the critical regime (zero reactivity), one notes that the reached power is independent of the initial reactivity. During the sur-critical regime (positive reactivity), the elevation of temperature of the uranium bars slows down the growth of reactivity due to the movements of the plates. The power stretches then toward a value that depends only on the regime of cooling of the reactor and the excess of the available reactivity. This survey permits to choose such a rise speed, that reactivity remains constantly lower to a value beyond which the piloting of the reactor becomes difficult. This result is not more valid, if the intensity of the sources is insufficient, what takes place during the first divergences and after a stop of long length. (author) [French] On etudie les variations de puissance et de reactivite d'un reacteur quand on leve d'une facon continue les plaques de demarrage. Pendant le regime subcritique (reactivite negative), la puissance est determinee par la reactivite et par l'intensite des sources de photoneutrons, produites pendant la marche anterieure du reacteur. Quand, au cours de la montee des plaques, le reacteur passe par le regime critique (reactivite nulle), on constate que la puissance atteinte est independante de la reactivite initiale. Pendant le regime surcritique (reactivite positive), l'elevation de temperature des barres d'uranium ralentit l'accroissement de reactivite due aux mouvements des plaques. La puissance tend alors vers une valeur qui ne depend plus que du regime de refroidissement du reacteur et de l'exces de la reactivite disponible. Cette etude permet de

TIPS (trigger an IIF paradigm shift)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kilcup, P.E. Glen [Intel Corporation, MS: F9-016, 4100 Sara Road, Rio Rancho, NM 87124 (United States)]. E-mail: glen.w.kilcup@intel.com; Hickox, Dick [Intel Corporation, MS: F9-016, 4100 Sara Road, Rio Rancho, NM 87124 (United States); Reynaga, Adolfo [Intel Corporation, MS: F9-016, 4100 Sara Road, Rio Rancho, NM 87124 (United States)

2007-04-11

Challenge: New Mexico Corporate Services (NMCS) recordable injuries have been averaging 2-4 per year for the last 5 years with no statistical improvement. However, we believe all NM employees must go home incident and injury free every day and just as healthy as they came to work. In addition, we have received feedback from several sources, that indicates some employees are reluctant to report injuries. These indicators showed us that continuing our current strategies, making incremental improvement and changes, would not give us the improvement desired. We needed a paradigm shift to get everyone completely engaged in the IIF (Incident and Injury Free) culture, in order to achieve true IIF results. Methods/Strategies: We formed a small (3-person) taskforce consisting of safety representatives from EHS, Site Services and CS Operations. We reviewed 5 years worth of data to determine what was injuring our people. We also decided to review all injuries, not simply those classified as recordable by OSHA standards. First we identified the types of injury information needed to get a true picture of our safety issues. We analyzed IRB (Incident Review Board) data showing us the following factors and whether any of them contributed to the injury: - Date - Incident Description - Severity - Root Cause - Type of Injury - Season - Work Group/Shift - Area - Improper evaluation of hazard - Inadequate work procedures - Incorrect Mental Model - Inadequate PPE Requirement - Failure to Follow or Unaware of PPE Requirement - Shortcut or Schedule Pressure - Last or First Day of Shift or Adjacent to Holiday - OT - Aggravate Existing Condition - Inadequate Training or Passdown - Experience in Task - Corrective Action Taken - Overall Quality of Response. Once this information was collected for all injuries in an Excel file, we graphed it several ways to help reveal trends: - Shift 7 had double the injuries of shift 5 - Night shift injuries were relatively high but lower than Shift 7 -Shift

TIPS (trigger an IIF paradigm shift)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcup, P.E. Glen; Hickox, Dick; Reynaga, Adolfo

2007-01-01

Challenge: New Mexico Corporate Services (NMCS) recordable injuries have been averaging 2-4 per year for the last 5 years with no statistical improvement. However, we believe all NM employees must go home incident and injury free every day and just as healthy as they came to work. In addition, we have received feedback from several sources, that indicates some employees are reluctant to report injuries. These indicators showed us that continuing our current strategies, making incremental improvement and changes, would not give us the improvement desired. We needed a paradigm shift to get everyone completely engaged in the IIF (Incident and Injury Free) culture, in order to achieve true IIF results. Methods/Strategies: We formed a small (3-person) taskforce consisting of safety representatives from EHS, Site Services and CS Operations. We reviewed 5 years worth of data to determine what was injuring our people. We also decided to review all injuries, not simply those classified as recordable by OSHA standards. First we identified the types of injury information needed to get a true picture of our safety issues. We analyzed IRB (Incident Review Board) data showing us the following factors and whether any of them contributed to the injury: - Date - Incident Description - Severity - Root Cause - Type of Injury - Season - Work Group/Shift - Area - Improper evaluation of hazard - Inadequate work procedures - Incorrect Mental Model - Inadequate PPE Requirement - Failure to Follow or Unaware of PPE Requirement - Shortcut or Schedule Pressure - Last or First Day of Shift or Adjacent to Holiday - OT - Aggravate Existing Condition - Inadequate Training or Passdown - Experience in Task - Corrective Action Taken - Overall Quality of Response. Once this information was collected for all injuries in an Excel file, we graphed it several ways to help reveal trends: - Shift 7 had double the injuries of shift 5 - Night shift injuries were relatively high but lower than Shift 7 -Shift

TIPS (trigger an IIF paradigm shift).

Science.gov (United States)

Kilcup P E, Glen; Hickox, Dick; Reynaga, Adolfo

2007-04-11

New Mexico Corporate Services (NMCS) recordable injuries have been averaging 2-4 per year for the last 5 years with no statistical improvement. However, we believe all NM employees must go home incident and injury free every day and just as healthy as they came to work. In addition, we have received feedback from several sources, that indicates some employees are reluctant to report injuries. These indicators showed us that continuing our current strategies, making incremental improvement and changes, would not give us the improvement desired. We needed a paradigm shift to get everyone completely engaged in the IIF (Incident & Injury Free) culture, in order to achieve true IIF results. We formed a small (3-person) taskforce consisting of safety representatives from EHS, Site Services and CS Operations. We reviewed 5 years worth of data to determine what was injuring our people. We also decided to review all injuries, not simply those classified as recordable by OSHA standards. First we identified the types of injury information needed to get a true picture of our safety issues. We analyzed IRB (Incident Review Board) data showing us the following factors and whether any of them contributed to the injury: - Date - Incident Description - Severity - Root Cause - Type of Injury - Season - Work Group/Shift - Area - Improper evaluation of hazard - Inadequate work procedures - Incorrect Mental Model - Inadequate PPE Requirement - Failure to Follow or Unaware of PPE Requirement - Shortcut or Schedule Pressure - Last or First Day of Shift or Adjacent to Holiday - OT - Aggravate Existing Condition - Inadequate Training or Passdown - Experience in Task - Corrective Action Taken - Overall Quality of Response. Once this information was collected for all injuries in an Excel file, we graphed it several ways to help reveal trends: Shift 7 had double the injuries of shift 5. Night shift injuries were relatively high but lower than Shift 7. Shift 5 had no severe (recordable

Evaluation of Calendar Year 1996 groundwater and surface water quality data for the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

This report presents an evaluation of the groundwater monitoring data obtained in the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime) during calendar year (CY) 1996. The East Fork Regime encompasses several confirmed and suspected sources of groundwater contamination within industrialized areas of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Y-12 Plant in Bear Creek Valley (BCV) southeast of Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The CY 1996 groundwater and surface water monitoring data are presented in Calendar Year 1996 Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report for the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime at the US Department of Energy Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, along with the required data evaluations specified in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) post-closure permit for the East Fork Regime. This report provides additional evaluation of the CY 1996 groundwater and surface water monitoring data with an emphasis on regime-wide groundwater contamination and long-term concentration trends for regulated and non-regulated monitoring parameters

Human impacts on river ice regime in the Carpathian Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Takács, Katalin; Nagy, Balázs; Kern, Zoltán

2014-05-01

examples from the Carpathian Basin represent some of the most common human impacts (engineering regulation, hydropower usage, water pollution), disturbing natural river ice regimes of mid-latitude rivers with densely populated or dynamically growing urban areas along their courses. In addition simple tests are also introduced to detect not only the climatic, but also the effect of anthropogenic impacts on river ice regime. As a result of river regulation on River Danube at Budapest a vanishing trend in river ice phenomena could be detected in the Danube records. The average ice-affected season shortened from 40 to 27 days, the average ice-covered season reduced greatly, from 27 to 7 days. In historical times the ice jams on the River Danube caused many times ice floods. The relative frequency of the break-up jam also decreased; moreover no ice flood occurred over the past 50 years. The changes due to hydropower usage are different upstream and downstream to the damming along the river. On Raba River upstream of the Nick dam at Ragyogóhíd, the ice-affected and ice-covered seasons were lengthened by 4 and 9 days, in contrast, downstream of the dam, the length of the ice-covered season was shortened by 7 days, and the number of ice-affected days decreased by 8 days at Árpás. During the observation period at Budapest on Danube River, the temperature requirements for river ice phenomena occurrence changed. Nowadays, much lower temperatures are needed to create the same ice phenomena compared to the start of the observations. For ice appearance, the mean winter air temperature requirements decreased from +2.39 °C to +1.71 °C. This investigation focused on anthropogenic effects on river ice regime, eliminating the impact of climatic conditions. Different forms of anthropogenic effects cause in most cases, a shorter length of ice-affected seasons and decreasing frequency of ice phenomena occurrence. Rising winter temperatures result the same changes in river ice regime

Growth and abundance of Pacific Sand Lance, Ammodytes hexapterus, under differing oceanographic regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Robards, Martin D.; Gray, Floyd; Piatt, John F.

2002-01-01

Dramatic changes in seabird and marine mammal stocks in the Gulf of Alaska have been linked to shifts in abundance and composition of forage fish stocks over the past 20 years. The relative value (e.g., size and condition of individual fish, abundance) of specific forage fish stocks to predators under temporally changing oceanographic regimes is also expected to vary. We inferred potential temporal responses in abundance, growth, and age structure of a key forage fish, sand lance, by studying across spatially different oceanographic regimes. Marked meso-scale differences in abundance, growth, and mortality existed in conjunction with these differing regimes. Growth rate within stocks (between years) was positively correlated with temperature. However, this relationship did not exist among stocks (locations) and differing growth rates were better correlated to marine productivity. Sand lance were least abundant and grew slowest at the warmest site (Chisik Island), an area of limited habitat and low food abundance. Abundance and growth of juvenile sand lance was highest at the coolest site (Barren Islands), an area of highly productive upwelled waters. Sand lance at two sites located oceanographically between the Barren Islands and Chisik Island (inner- and outer-Kachemak Bay) displayed correspondingly intermediate abundance and growth. Resident predators at these sites are presented with markedly different numbers and quality of this key prey species. Our results suggest that at the decadal scale, Gulf of Alaska forage fish such as sand lance are probably more profoundly affected by changes in abundance and quality of their planktonic food, than by temperature alone.

The Winter Cooling Trend in Eastern China during the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Period and Its Possible Reason

Science.gov (United States)

Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.

2017-12-01

The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.

Evidence of chemical-potential shift with hole doping in Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Z.; Dessau, D.S.; Wells, B.O.; Olson, C.G.; Mitzi, D.B.; Lombado, L.; List, R.S.; Arko, A.J.

1991-01-01

We have performed photoemission studies on high-quality Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ samples with various δ. Our results show a clear chemical-potential shift (0.15--0.2 eV) as a function of doping. This result and the existing angle-resolved-photoemission data give a rather standard doping behavior of this compound in its highly doped regime

Fire Regime Characteristics along Environmental Gradients in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Vanesa Moreno

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Concern regarding global change has increased the need to understand the relationship between fire regime characteristics and the environment. Pyrogeographical theory suggests that fire regimes are constrained by climate, vegetation and fire ignition processes, but it is not obvious how fire regime characteristics are related to those factors. We used a three-matrix approach with a multivariate statistical methodology that combined an ordination method and fourth-corner analysis for hypothesis testing to investigate the relationship between fire regime characteristics and environmental gradients across Spain. Our results suggest that fire regime characteristics (i.e., density and seasonality of fire activity are constrained primarily by direct gradients based on climate, population, and resource gradients based on forest potential productivity. Our results can be used to establish a predictive model for how fire regimes emerge in order to support fire management, particularly as global environmental changes impact fire regime characteristics.

Transition from linear- to nonlinear-focusing regime in filamentation

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Khan; Durand, Magali; Baudelet, Matthieu; Richardson, Martin

2014-01-01

Laser filamentation in gases is often carried out in the laboratory with focusing optics to better stabilize the filament, whereas real-world applications of filaments frequently involve collimated or near-collimated beams. It is well documented that geometrical focusing can alter the properties of laser filaments and, consequently, a transition between a collimated and a strongly focused filament is expected. Nevertheless, this transition point has not been identified. Here, we propose an analytical method to determine the transition, and show that it corresponds to an actual shift in the balance of physical mechanisms governing filamentation. In high-NA conditions, filamentation is primarily governed by geometrical focusing and plasma effects, while the Kerr nonlinearity plays a more significant role as NA decreases. We find the transition between the two regimes to be relatively insensitive to the intrinsic laser parameters, and our analysis agrees well with a wide range of parameters found in published literature. PMID:25434678

Catastrophic shifts in vegetation-soil systems may unfold rapidly or slowly independent of the rate of change in the system driver

Science.gov (United States)

Karssenberg, Derek; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

, T. P., Linares, C., Dakos, V., van de Leemput, I. a, & van Nes, E. H. (2013). Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts. Trends in ecology & evolution, 28(3), 149-55. [2] Karssenberg, D., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2012). Early-warning signals (potentially) reduce uncertainty in forecasted timing of critical shifts. Ecosphere, 3(2).

Single-photon superradiance and cooperative Lamb shift in an optoelectronic device (Conference Presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Sirtori, Carlo

2017-02-01

Superradiance is one of the many fascinating phenomena predicted by quantum electrodynamics that have first been experimentally demonstrated in atomic systems and more recently in condensed matter systems like quantum dots, superconducting q-bits, cyclotron transitions and plasma oscillations in quantum wells (QWs). It occurs when a dense collection of N identical two-level emitters are phased via the exchange of photons, giving rise to enhanced light-matter interaction, hence to a faster emission rate. Of great interest is the regime where the ensemble interacts with one photon only and therefore all of the atoms, but one, are in the ground state. In this case the quantum superposition of all possible configurations produces a symmetric state that decays radiatively with a rate N times larger than that of the individual oscillators. This phenomenon, called single photon superradiance, results from the exchange of real photons among the N emitters. Yet, to single photon superradiance is also associated another collective effect that renormalizes the emission frequency, known as cooperative Lamb shift. In this work, we show that single photon superradiance and cooperative Lamb shift can be engineered in a semiconductor device by coupling spatially separated plasma resonances arising from the collective motion of confined electrons in QWs. These resonances hold a giant dipole along the growth direction z and have no mutual Coulomb coupling. They thus behave as a collection of macro-atoms on different positions along the z axis. Our device is therefore a test bench to simulate the low excitation regime of quantum electrodynamics.

Trends and challenges in global arms control regimes: Implications for the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lehman, R.F. II

1994-06-01

In another sense, however, the nuclear age and ballistic missiles long ago created a much smaller world in which the distinctions between global and regional security have been lessened. In an age of weapons of mass destruction, any point on the earth can find itself suddenly at the center of world attention. This makes it all the more important that we understand all of the arms control tools available, including global approaches. In discussing global arms control regimes, I will focus primarily on those that are open to universal membership such as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) or which have global reach, such as certain export control and supplier regimes. It is important to remember, however, that certain regional, bilateral, and even unilateral arms control measures can have a global impact as well. One need only witness the impact of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). Despite its mere {open_quotes}Atlantic to the Urals{close_quotes} focus, the CFE treaty helped change the political and strategic calculations of the entire world. Likewise, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), with its headquarters in Vienna, is centered on Europe but spreads from Vancouver to Vladivostok (or perhaps we should say from Amchitka to Kamchatka), circumnavigating much of the northern hemisphere when measured the long way around via North America. The political significance of its successes and failures outdistance CSCE`s geographical spread.

Framing of regimes and transition strategies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jens Stissing

2012-01-01

This article suggests that transition strategies are always formulated in the context of specific representations of the regime and the challenges it faces. It is argued that the framing of a regime affects the envisioning of transition strategies. An analysis of the current development agenda...... for the housing construction sector in Denmark reveals the relevance and impacts of different regime framings. It is proposed that the ability to cope with framing issues as situated and political processes is at the core of the governance of transitions....

Terrestrial Water Storage in African Hydrological Regimes Derived from GRACE Mission Data: Intercomparison of Spherical Harmonics, Mass Concentration, and Scalar Slepian Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Rateb, Ashraf; Kuo, Chung-Yen; Imani, Moslem; Tseng, Kuo-Hsin; Lan, Wen-Hau; Ching, Kuo-En; Tseng, Tzu-Pang

2017-03-10

Spherical harmonics (SH) and mascon solutions are the two most common types of solutions for Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mass flux observations. However, SH signals are degraded by measurement and leakage errors. Mascon solutions (the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) release, herein) exhibit weakened signals at submascon resolutions. Both solutions require a scale factor examined by the CLM4.0 model to obtain the actual water storage signal. The Slepian localization method can avoid the SH leakage errors when applied to the basin scale. In this study, we estimate SH errors and scale factors for African hydrological regimes. Then, terrestrial water storage (TWS) in Africa is determined based on Slepian localization and compared with JPL-mascon and SH solutions. The three TWS estimates show good agreement for the TWS of large-sized and humid regimes but present discrepancies for the TWS of medium and small-sized regimes. Slepian localization is an effective method for deriving the TWS of arid zones. The TWS behavior in African regimes and its spatiotemporal variations are then examined. The negative TWS trends in the lower Nile and Sahara at -1.08 and -6.92 Gt/year, respectively, are higher than those previously reported.

Spatial and topographic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales.

Science.gov (United States)

Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M

2015-09-01

Natural forest growth and expansion are important carbon sequestration processes globally. Climate change is likely to increase forest growth in some regions via CO2 fertilization, increased temperatures, and altered precipitation; however, altered disturbance regimes and climate stress (e.g. drought) will act to reduce carbon stocks in forests as well. Observations of asynchrony in forest change is useful in determining current trends in forest carbon stocks, both in terms of forest density (e.g. Mg ha(-1) ) and spatially (extent and location). Monitoring change in natural (unmanaged) areas is particularly useful, as while afforestation and recovery from historic land use are currently large carbon sinks, the long-term viability of those sinks depends on climate change and disturbance dynamics at their particular location. We utilize a large, unmanaged biome (>135 000 km(2) ) which spans a broad latitudinal gradient to explore how variation in location affects forest density and spatial patterning: the forests of the North American temperate rainforests in Alaska, which store >2.8 Pg C in biomass and soil, equivalent to >8% of the C in contiguous US forests. We demonstrate that the regional biome is shifting; gains exceed losses and are located in different spatio-topographic contexts. Forest gains are concentrated on northerly aspects, lower elevations, and higher latitudes, especially in sheltered areas, whereas loss is skewed toward southerly aspects and lower latitudes. Repeat plot-scale biomass data (n = 759) indicate that within-forest biomass gains outpace losses (live trees >12.7 cm diameter, 986 Gg yr(-1) ) on gentler slopes and in higher latitudes. This work demonstrates that while temperate rainforest dynamics occur at fine spatial scales (biomass accumulation suggest the potential for relatively rapid biome shifts and biomass changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Feasibility of a dual regime gyrotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawant, Ashwini; Jain, Prerit; Kartikeyan, M.V.

2012-01-01

The design concept of a 42/84 GHz, 500 kW, CW, dual-regime gyrotron for ECRH of plasma in an experimental Tokamak will be presented in this paper. Operation at 42 GHz is fundamental where as that in 84 GHz will be second harmonic so that a similar guidance system will be retained for dual regime operation. In this paper, the mode competition and mode selection procedures are presented for such a dual regime operation. Cold cavity design and self-consistent calculations will be carried out for power and efficiencies. (author)

Regional drought shifts (1710-2010) in East Central Asia and linkages with atmospheric circulation recorded in tree-ring δ18O

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Guobao; Liu, Xiaohong; Trouet, Valerie; Treydte, Kerstin; Wu, Guoju; Chen, Tuo; Sun, Weizhen; An, Wenling; Wang, Wenzhi; Zeng, Xiaomin; Qin, Dahe

2018-04-01

Drought occurrence and duration in central Asia are of important socioeconomic, ecological, and geophysical significance and have received increasing research attention in recent years. Understanding long-term drought trends and their driving forces require reliable records of past drought variability with broad spatial representativeness. Here, we compiled four tree-ring δ18O records from eastern central Asia (ECA) and composited them into a drought-sensitive proxy to explore regional ECA moisture variations over the past 301 years (1710-2010 CE). A robust regional standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) reconstruction was established based on the tree-ring cellulose δ18O fractionation mechanism and statistically significant proxy-climate relationships. We identified prominent droughts in 1710-1770, 1810-1830, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, and a regime shift to a persistently wet period from the 1880s to 2000. Our reconstruction reveals the impact of drought and pluvial patterns on the decline of Zhungar Empire, and on historical agricultural and socio-economical activities, including increased migration into ECA during the 1770-1800 pluvial. Our findings also suggest that wet conditions in the twentieth century in ECA were related to a strengthening of the westerly circulation and thus shed light on large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics in central Asia.

Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kicklighter, D W; Melillo, J M; Lu, X; Cai, Y; Paltsev, S; Sokolov, A P; Reilly, J M; Zhuang, Q; Parfenova, E I; Tchebakova, N M

2014-01-01

Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region’s landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. (paper)

Regime identification in ASDEX Upgrade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giannone, L; Sips, A C C; Kardaun, O; Spreitler, F; Suttrop, W

2004-01-01

The ability to recognize the transition from the L-mode to the H-mode or from the H-mode to the improved H-mode reliably from a conveniently small number of measurements in real time is of increasing importance for machine control. Discriminant analysis has been applied to regime identification of plasma discharges in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. An observation consists of a set of plasma parameters averaged over a time slice in a discharge. The data set consists of all observations over different discharges and time slices. Discriminant analysis yields coefficients allowing the classification of a new observation. The results of a frequentist and a formal Bayesian approach to discriminant analysis are compared. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 1.3% for predicting the L-mode and the H-mode confinement regime was achieved. With five plasma variables, a failure rate of 5.3% for predicting the H-mode and the improved H-mode confinement regime was achieved. The coefficients derived by discriminant analysis have been applied subsequently to discharges to illustrate the operation of regime identification in a real time control system

Downstream impacts of dams: shifts in benthic invertivorous fish assemblages

Science.gov (United States)

Granzotti, Rafaela Vendrametto; Miranda, Leandro E.; Agostinho, Angelo A.; Gomes, Luiz Carlos

2018-01-01

Impoundments alter connectivity, sediment transport and water discharge in rivers and floodplains, affecting recruitment, habitat and resource availability for fish including benthic invertivorous fish, which represent an important link between primary producers and higher trophic levels in tropical aquatic ecosystems. We investigated long-term changes to water regime, water quality, and invertivorous fish assemblages pre and post impoundment in three rivers downstream of Porto Primavera Reservoir in south Brazil: Paraná, Baía and Ivinhema rivers. Impacts were distinct in the Paraná River, which is fully obstructed by the dam, less evident in the Baía River which is partially obstructed by the dam, but absent in the unimpounded Ivinhema River. Changes in water regime were reflected mainly as changes in water-level fluctuation with little effect on timing. Water transparency increased in the Paraná River post impoundment but did not change in the Baía and Ivinhema rivers. Changes in fish assemblages included a decrease in benthic invertivorous fish in the Paraná River and a shift in invertivorous fish assemblage structure in the Baía and Paraná rivers but not in the unimpounded Ivinhema River. Changes in water regime and water transparency, caused by impoundment, directly or indirectly impacted invertivorous fish assemblages. Alterations of fish assemblages following environmental changes have consequences over the entire ecosystem, including a potential decrease in the diversity of mechanisms for energy flow. We suggest that keeping existing unimpounded tributaries free of dams, engineering artificial floods, and intensive management of fish habitat within the floodplain may preserve native fish assemblages and help maintain functionality and ecosystem services in highly impounded rivers.

Inverse scaling trends for charge-trapping-induced degradation of FinFETs performance

OpenAIRE

Amoroso, Salvatore Maria; Georgiev, Vihar P.; Gerrer, Louis; Towie, Ewan; Wang, Xingsheng; Riddet, Craig; Brown, Andrew Robert; Asenov, Asen

2014-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the impact of a single discrete charge trapped at the top oxide interface on the performance of scaled nMOS FinFET transistors. The charge-trapping-induced gate voltage shift is simulated as a function of the device scaling and for several regimes of conduction-from subthreshold to ON-state. Contrary to what is expected for planar MOSFETs, we show that the trap impact decreases with scaling down the FinFET size and the applied gate voltage. By comparing drift-dif...

Descriptors of natural thermal regimes in streams and their responsiveness to change in the Pacific Northwest of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

1. Temperature is a major driver of ecological processes in stream ecosystems, yet the dynamics of thermal regimes remain poorly described. Most work has focused on relatively simple descriptors that fail to capture the full range of conditions that characterise thermal regimes of streams across seasons or throughout the year. 2. To more completely describe thermal regimes, we developed several descriptors of magnitude, variability, frequency, duration and timing of thermal events throughout a year. We evaluated how these descriptors change over time using long-term (1979–2009), continuous temperature data from five relatively undisturbed cold-water streams in western Oregon, U.S.A. In addition to trends for each descriptor, we evaluated similarities among them, as well as patterns of spatial coherence, and temporal synchrony. 3. Using different groups of descriptors, we were able to more fully capture distinct aspects of the full range of variability in thermal regimes across space and time. A subset of descriptors showed both higher coherence and synchrony and, thus, an appropriate level of responsiveness to examine evidence of regional climatic influences on thermal regimes. Most notably, daily minimum values during winter–spring were the most responsive descriptors to potential climatic influences. 4. Overall, thermal regimes in streams we studied showed high frequency and low variability of cold temperatures during the cold-water period in winter and spring, and high frequency and high variability of warm temperatures during the warm-water period in summer and autumn. The cold and warm periods differed in the distribution of events with a higher frequency and longer duration of warm events in summer than cold events in winter. The cold period exhibited lower variability in the duration of events, but showed more variability in timing. 5. In conclusion, our results highlight the importance of a year-round perspective in identifying the most responsive

How is the impact of climate change on river flow regimes related to the impact on mean annual runoff? A global-scale analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Döll, Petra; Schmied, Hannes Müller

2012-01-01

To assess the impact of climate change on freshwater resources, change in mean annual runoff (MAR) is only a first indicator. In addition, it is necessary to analyze changes of river flow regimes, i.e. changes in the temporal dynamics of river discharge, as these are important for the well-being of humans (e.g. with respect to water supply) and freshwater-dependent biota (e.g. with respect to habitat availability). Therefore, we investigated, in a global-scale hydrological modeling study, the relation between climate-induced changes of MAR and changes of a number of river flow regime indicators, including mean river discharge, statistical low and high flows, and mean seasonal discharge. In addition, we identified, for the first time at the global scale, where flow regime shifts from perennial to intermittent flow regimes (or vice versa) may occur due to climate change. Climate-induced changes of all considered river flow regime indicators (except seasonal river flow changes) broadly follow the spatial pattern of MAR changes. The differences among the computed changes of MAR due to the application of the two climate models are larger than the differences between the change of MAR and the change of the diverse river flow indicators for one climate model. At the sub-basin and grid cell scales, however, there are significant differences between the changes of MAR, mean annual river discharge, and low and high flows. Low flows are projected to be more than halved by the 2050s in almost twice the area as compared to MAR. Similarly, northern hemisphere summer flows decrease more strongly than MAR. Differences between the high emissions scenario A2 (with emissions of 25 Gt C yr −1 in the 2050s) and the low emissions scenario B2 (16 Gt C yr −1 ) are generally small as compared to the differences due to the two climate models. The benefits of avoided emissions are, however, significant in those areas where flows are projected to be more than halved due to climate change

A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

2018-03-01

Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østrup, Finn

a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

Coastal regime shifts: rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Hongyu; Weaver, Carolyn; Charles, Sean P; Whitt, Ashley; Dastidar, Sayantani; D'Odorico, Paolo; Fuentes, Jose D; Kominoski, John S; Armitage, Anna R; Pennings, Steven C

2017-03-01

Global changes are causing broad-scale shifts in vegetation communities worldwide, including coastal habitats where the borders between mangroves and salt marsh are in flux. Coastal habitats provide numerous ecosystem services of high economic value, but the consequences of variation in mangrove cover are poorly known. We experimentally manipulated mangrove cover in large plots to test a set of linked hypotheses regarding the effects of changes in mangrove cover. We found that changes in mangrove cover had strong effects on microclimate, plant community, sediment accretion, soil organic content, and bird abundance within 2 yr. At higher mangrove cover, wind speed declined and light interception by vegetation increased. Air and soil temperatures had hump-shaped relationships with mangrove cover. The cover of salt marsh plants decreased at higher mangrove cover. Wrack cover, the distance that wrack was distributed from the water's edge, and sediment accretion decreased at higher mangrove cover. Soil organic content increased with mangrove cover. Wading bird abundance decreased at higher mangrove cover. Many of these relationships were non-linear, with the greatest effects when mangrove cover varied from zero to intermediate values, and lesser effects when mangrove cover varied from intermediate to high values. Temporal and spatial variation in measured variables often peaked at intermediate mangrove cover, with ecological consequences that are largely unexplored. Because different processes varied in different ways with mangrove cover, the "optimum" cover of mangroves from a societal point of view will depend on which ecosystem services are most desired. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Seagrass sediments reveal the long-term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Serrano, Oscar; Lavery, Paul; Masque, Pere; Inostroza, Karina; Bongiovanni, James; Duarte, Carlos

2016-04-01

The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time-course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass-dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Franquist, Eric S.

Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

Resilience, Regime Shifts, and Guided Transition under Climate Change: Examining the Practical Difficulties of Managing Continually Changing Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brenda B. Lin

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Managing terrestrial systems has become increasingly difficult under climate change as unidirectional shifts in climate conditions challenge the resilience of ecosystems to maintain their compositional structure and function. Despite the increased attention of resilience management to guide transformational change, questions remain as to how to apply resilience to manage transitions. Rather than pushing systems across thresholds into alternative states, climate change may create a stepwise progression of unknown transitional states that track changing climate conditions. Because of this uncertainty, we must find ways to guide transitioning systems across climate boundaries towards states that are socially and environmentally desirable. We propose to ease the uncertainty of managing shifting systems by providing an approach to adaptive management that we call guided transition, where socially and environmentally important ecosystem functions are preserved through transitions by considering and maintaining the species and structures needed for the desired functions. Scientifically, it will require a better understanding of the relationships between structure, species composition, and function for specific systems. Managers will also need to identify important functions at the local, regional, and national scale, and to determine how best to transition systems to a desired state based on existing scientific knowledge. Guided transition, therefore, helps guide the process of adaptive management by specifying a function-based management pathway that guides transitions through climatic changes.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

Land Use Dynamics Involving Forestland: Trends in the U.S. South

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig; Michael R. Dicks; Robert J. Moulton

1998-01-01

Since 1952, U.S. timberland has decreased by about 20 million acres, with about one-quarter of the reduction in the South. Although some of the timberland has been converted to urban and developed uses, Larger amounts of land shifted uses between forest and agriculture because of changes in product markets and policy conditions. We summarize area trends for major land...

Shift work and colorectal cancer risk in the MCC-Spain case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Papantoniou, Kyriaki; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Espinosa, Ana; Turner, Michelle C; Alonso-Aguado, Maria Henar; Martin, Vicente; Aragonés, Nuria; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pozo, Benito Mirón; Gómez-Acebo, Inés; Ardanaz, Eva; Altzibar, Jone M; Peiro, Rosana; Tardon, Adonina; Lorca, José Andrés; Chirlaque, Maria Dolores; García-Palomo, Andrés; Jimenez-Moleon, Jose Juan; Ierssen, Trinidad; Ederra, Maria; Amiano, Pilar; Pollan, Marina; Moreno, Victor; Kogevinas, Manolis

2017-05-01

Objectives Shift work that involves circadian disruption has been associated with a higher cancer risk. Most epidemiological studies to date have focused on breast cancer risk and evidence for other common tumors is limited. We evaluated the risk for colorectal cancer (CRC) in relation to shift work history in a population-based case-control study in Spain. Methods This analysis included 1626 incident CRC cases and 3378 randomly selected population controls of both sexes, enrolled in 11 regions of Spain. Sociodemographic and lifestyle information was assessed in face-to-face interviews. Shift work was assessed in detail throughout lifetime occupational history. We estimated the risk of colon and rectal cancer associated with rotating and permanent shift work (ever, cumulative duration, age of first exposure) using unconditional logistic regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders. Results Having ever performed rotating shift work (morning, evening and/or night) was associated with an increased risk for CRC [odds ratio (OR) 1.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.04-1.43], as compared to day workers. Having ever worked permanent night shifts (≥3 nights/month) was not associated with CRC risk (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62-1.00). OR increased with increasing lifetime cumulative duration of rotating shift work (P-value for trend 0.005) and were highest among subjects in the top quartiles of exposure (3 rd quartile, 20-34 years, OR 1.38, 95%CI 1.06-1.81; 4 th quartile, ≥35 years, OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.79). Conclusions These data suggest that rotating shift work may increase the risk of CRC especially after long-term exposures.

Some characteristics of wet and dry regimes in the contiguous United States: Implications for climate change detection efforts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diaz, H.F.

1990-01-01

The climatology of wet and dry regimes in five different regions of the contiguous US is examined using station records of daily precipitation for the period 1931-86. The regions were selected to be representative of different climatological synoptic regimes, and hence are associated with different large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns. The results show that the precipitation-producing processes operating during the wettest and driest years are substantially different, with wet years generally displaying large increases in the heavier precipitation categories compared to the dry years. These differences may be related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the development of persistent oceanic anomalies associated with variations in air-sea exchange processes over the Pacific Ocean and, depending on the particular region of the country, in the Atlantic Ocean as well. It is shown that sequences of wet and dry years are rather common throughout the country. The 1930s and 50s saw prolonged periods of severe, and in some instances, extreme drought conditions in many parts of the country. There does not appear to be any secular trend in the frequency of either wet or dry regimes through the analysis period. Wet conditions prevailed in much of the country in the early 1980s; a return to drier conditions in the past couple of years, therefore, appears to be just a normal swing to an opposite regime

Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change

OpenAIRE

Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper

2006-01-01

This paper makes changes in monetary policy rules (or regimes) endogenous. Changes are triggered when certain endogenous variables cross specified thresholds. Rational expectations equilibria are examined in three models of threshold switching to illustrate that (i) expectations formation effects generated by the possibility of regime change can be quantitatively important; (ii) symmetric shocks can have asymmetric effects; (iii) endogenous switching is a natural way to formally model preempt...

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. �

Shift Work Disorder and Mental and Physical Effects of Shift Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pinar Guzel Ozdemir

2018-03-01

Full Text Available With the growing prevalence of shift work all over the the world, the relationship between the daily lives of irregular lifestyles and rhythms is being investigated for those working as shift workers and their families. The effect of shift work on physical and mental health is a very important field of research in recent years. The onset and persistence of medical complications in shift workers includes impaired synchronization between work schedule rhythms and circadian clock. In this context, studies have been carried out showing the increased risk of sleep-wake disorders, gastrointestinal problems, and cardiovascular diseases. There is little information about the actual frequency, effect on health and treatment of shift work disorder, known as circadian rhythm sleep disorder. Shift work disorder includes insomnia and/or excessive sleepiness related with the work schedule. The aim of this rewiev, mentioning about the physical and mental effects of shift work, and to provide information about the diagnosis, clinic and treatment methods of shift-work disorder.

Intraoperative Imaging Modalities and Compensation for Brain Shift in Tumor Resection Surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siming Bayer

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Intraoperative brain shift during neurosurgical procedures is a well-known phenomenon caused by gravity, tissue manipulation, tumor size, loss of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF, and use of medication. For the use of image-guided systems, this phenomenon greatly affects the accuracy of the guidance. During the last several decades, researchers have investigated how to overcome this problem. The purpose of this paper is to present a review of publications concerning different aspects of intraoperative brain shift especially in a tumor resection surgery such as intraoperative imaging systems, quantification, measurement, modeling, and registration techniques. Clinical experience of using intraoperative imaging modalities, details about registration, and modeling methods in connection with brain shift in tumor resection surgery are the focuses of this review. In total, 126 papers regarding this topic are analyzed in a comprehensive summary and are categorized according to fourteen criteria. The result of the categorization is presented in an interactive web tool. The consequences from the categorization and trends in the future are discussed at the end of this work.

Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region

Science.gov (United States)

McKenna, Owen; Mushet, David M.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; LaBaugh, James W.

2017-01-01

Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region. We explored numerous lines of evidence to identify: (1) how the recent wet period compared to historical variability, (2) hydrological, geochemical, and biological responses, and (3) how these responses might represent a state shift in the region’s wetland ecosystems. We analyzed long-term climate records and compared how different hydrological variables responded in this wet period compared to decades before the observed shift. Additionally, we used multi-decadal records of waterfowl population and subsurface tile drain records to explore wildlife and human responses to a shifting climate. Since 1993, a novel precipitation regime corresponded with increased pond numbers, ponded-water depths, lake levels, stream flows, groundwater heights, soil-moisture, waterfowl populations, and installation of subsurface tile drains in agricultural fields. These observed changes reflect an alteration in water storage and movement across the landscape that in turn has altered solute sources and concentrations of prairie-pothole wetlands and has increased pond permanence. Combined, these changes represent significant evidence for a state shift in the ecohydrological functioning of the region’s wetland ecosystems, a shift that may require a significant refinement of the previously developed “wetland continuum” concept.

Wellness, hard to define, reduces trend up to 4 percent.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayer, Cyndy; Berger, Jan; Mahoney, Jack

2010-04-01

The purpose of this qualitative study was to identify a common language for "wellness" and a correlating health cost trend reduction through incentive-driven prevention and wellness. Mapping the results of the survey with the trend lines reported by innovative employers could uncover increased financial value in health investments. A 10-question survey was designed for telephone interviews with 26 businesses (Innovators) from the Board of the Center for Health Value Innovation; a paper-based survey with the same questions was completed by attendees at a seminar. Then, an online trend survey was conducted with members of the Board (Innovators) to track the total health cost trends in their companies over the past 3-4 years. Responses were compared and analysis of alignment and differences were recorded by graphing. The trend survey results were mapped and tracked with weighted averages. Innovators' responses to the phone survey showed broader definitions of "wellness" than other companies, with little difference in the Innovators' responses when subdivided by size of company. The online trend survey showed that companies that provided incentives for wellness averaged a trend of 4% over the past 3-4 years-approximately 50% of the national trends of 8%-10% over the same time frame. Innovators have defined wellness in ways that would accelerate adoption in the broader business community and drive implementation of wellness programs. The bigger win could be the community-level shift to a culture of health as employees carry these health competencies to the next business in the community.

Particle-Size-Exclusion Clogging Regimes in Porous Media

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, G.; Rodts, S.; Aimedieu, P.; Faure, P.; Coussot, P.

2018-04-01

From observations of the progressive deposition of noncolloidal particles by geometrical exclusion effects inside a 3D model porous medium, we get a complete dynamic view of particle deposits over a full range of regimes from transport over a long distance to clogging and caking. We show that clogging essentially occurs in the form of an accumulation of elements in pore size clusters, which ultimately constitute regions avoided by the flow. The clusters are dispersed in the medium, and their concentration (number per volume) decreases with the distance from the entrance; caking is associated with the final stage of this effect (for a critical cluster concentration at the entrance). A simple probabilistic model, taking into account the impact of clogging on particle transport, allows us to quantitatively predict all these trends up to a large cluster concentration, based on a single parameter: the clogging probability, which is a function of the confinement ratio. This opens the route towards a unification of the different fields of particle transport, clogging, caking, and filtration.

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

Science.gov (United States)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

OpenAIRE

Simwaka, Kisu

2010-01-01

The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

Capacitance densitometer for flow regime identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipp, R.L. Jr.

1978-01-01

This invention relates to a capacitance densitometer for determining the flow regime of a two-phase flow system. A two-element capacitance densitometer is used in conjunction with a conventional single-beam gamma densitometer to unambiguously identify the prevailing flow regime and the average density of a flowing fluid

Non-occupational physical activity levels of shift workers compared with non-shift workers

Science.gov (United States)

Loef, Bette; Hulsegge, Gerben; Wendel-Vos, G C Wanda; Verschuren, W M Monique; Bakker, Marije F; van der Beek, Allard J; Proper, Karin I

2017-01-01

Objectives Lack of physical activity (PA) has been hypothesised as an underlying mechanism in the adverse health effects of shift work. Therefore, our aim was to compare non-occupational PA levels between shift workers and non-shift workers. Furthermore, exposure–response relationships for frequency of night shifts and years of shift work regarding non-occupational PA levels were studied. Methods Data of 5980 non-shift workers and 532 shift workers from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) were used in these cross-sectional analyses. Time spent (hours/week) in different PA types (walking/cycling/exercise/chores) and intensities (moderate/vigorous) were calculated based on self-reported PA. Furthermore, sports were operationalised as: playing sports (no/yes), individual versus non-individual sports, and non-vigorous-intensity versus vigorous-intensity sports. PA levels were compared between shift workers and non-shift workers using Generalized Estimating Equations and logistic regression. Results Shift workers reported spending more time walking than non-shift workers (B=2.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.4)), but shift work was not associated with other PA types and any of the sports activities. Shift workers who worked 1–4 night shifts/month (B=2.4 (95% CI 0.6 to 4.3)) and ≥5 night shifts/month (B=3.7 (95% CI 1.8 to 5.6)) spent more time walking than non-shift workers. No exposure–response relationships were found between years of shift work and PA levels. Conclusions Shift workers spent more time walking than non-shift workers, but we observed no differences in other non-occupational PA levels. To better understand if and how PA plays a role in the negative health consequences of shift work, our findings need to be confirmed in future studies. PMID:27872151

Rotating night shift work and risk of type 2 diabetes: two prospective cohort studies in women.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

An Pan

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Rotating night shift work disrupts circadian rhythms and has been associated with obesity, metabolic syndrome, and glucose dysregulation. However, its association with type 2 diabetes remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate this association in two cohorts of US women.We followed 69,269 women aged 42-67 in Nurses' Health Study I (NHS I, 1988-2008, and 107,915 women aged 25-42 in NHS II (1989-2007 without diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline. Participants were asked how long they had worked rotating night shifts (defined as at least three nights/month in addition to days and evenings in that month at baseline. This information was updated every 2-4 years in NHS II. Self-reported type 2 diabetes was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire. We documented 6,165 (NHS I and 3,961 (NHS II incident type 2 diabetes cases during the 18-20 years of follow-up. In the Cox proportional models adjusted for diabetes risk factors, duration of shift work was monotonically associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in both cohorts. Compared with women who reported no shift work, the pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals for participants with 1-2, 3-9, 10-19, and ≥20 years of shift work were 1.05 (1.00-1.11, 1.20 (1.14-1.26, 1.40 (1.30-1.51, and 1.58 (1.43-1.74, p-value for trend <0.001, respectively. Further adjustment for updated body mass index attenuated the association, and the pooled hazard ratios were 1.03 (0.98-1.08, 1.06 (1.01-1.11, 1.10 (1.02-1.18, and 1.24 (1.13-1.37, p-value for trend <0.001.Our results suggest that an extended period of rotating night shift work is associated with a modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes in women, which appears to be partly mediated through body weight. Proper screening and intervention strategies in rotating night shift workers are needed for prevention of diabetes.