WorldWideScience

Sample records for transportation risk assessment

  1. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  2. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  3. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  4. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  5. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  6. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  7. Determining cutoff distances for assessing risks from transportation accident radiation releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Kimura, C.Y.; Brumburgh, G.

    1995-01-01

    The transportation of radioactive materials throughout the United States and the world is a ubiquitous and sometimes controversial activity. Almost universally, these transportation activities have been performed without major incident, and the safety record for transportation of radioactive material is outstanding compared with the transportation of other hazardous materials. Nevertheless, concerns still exist regarding adequate regulation of radioactive material transportation and accurate assessment of the health risks associated with accidents. These concerns are addressed through certification by the cognizant regulatory authority over the transportation container or the performance of a transportation risk assessment. In a transportation risk assessment, accident situations are examined, frequencies are estimated, and consequences resulting from the accident are analyzed and evaluated for acceptance. A universal question with any transportation risk assessment that examines the radiological consequences from release accidents is, At what distance may the dispersion analysis be terminated? This paper examines cutoff distances and their consequences for assessing health risks from radiological transportation releases

  8. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  9. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal

  10. Risk assessment in spent fuel storage and transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandimani, S.

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment in various stages of nuclear fuel cycle is still an active area of Nuclear safety studies. From the results of risk assessment available in literature, it can be determined that the risk resulting from shipments of plutonium and spent-fuel are much greater than that resulting from the transport of other materials within the nuclear fuel cycle. In India spent fuels are kept in Spent Fuel Storage Pool (SFSP) for about 240-400 days, which is relatively a longer period compared to the usual 120 days as recommended by regulatory authorities. After cooling spent fuels are transported to the reprocessing sites which are mostly situated close to the plants. India has two high level waste treatment facilities, one PREFRE (Plutonium Reprocessing and Fuel Recycling) at Tarapur and the other one, a unit of Nuclear Fuel Complex at Hyderabad. This paper presents the risk associated with spent fuel storage and transportation for the Indian conditions. All calculations are based on a typical CANDU reactor system. Simple fault tree models are evolved for SFSP and for Transportation Accident Mode (TAM) for both road and rail. Fault tree quantification and risk assessment are done to each of these models. All necessary data for SFSP are taken mostly from Reactor Safety Study, (1975). Similarly, the data for rail TAM are taken from Annual Statistical Statements, (1987-8) and that for road TAM from Special Issue on Motor Vehicle Accident Statistics in India, (1986). Simulation method is used wherever necessary. Risk is also estimated for normal/accident free transport

  11. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  12. Transportation System Risk Assessment on DOE Defense Program shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.; Kimura, C.Y.; Alesso, H.P.; Prassinos, P.G.

    1992-01-01

    Substantial effort has been expended concerning the level of safety provided to persons, property, and the environment from the hazards associated with transporting radioactive material. This work provided an impetus for the Department of Energy to investigate the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to supplement the deterministic approach to transportation safety. The DOE recently decided to incorporate the methodologies associated with PRAs in the process for authorizing the transportation of nuclear components, special assemblies, and radioactive materials affiliated with the DOE Defense Program. Accordingly, the LLNL, sponsored by the DOE/AL, is tasked with developing a safety guide series to provide guidance to preparers performing a transportation system risk assessment

  13. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  14. Assessing the transfer of risk due to transportation of agricultural products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pei-Chiun; Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Ma, Hwong-Wen

    2015-02-01

    Health risk assessment (HRA) is the process used to estimate adverse health effects on humans. The importance and sensitivity of food chains to HRA have been observed, but the impact of the transportation of food has generally been ignored. This study developed an exposure assessment to demonstrate the significance of the transportation of agricultural products in HRA. The associated case study estimated the health risks derived from various sources of arsenic emissions in Taiwan. Two assessment scenarios, self-sufficiency and transportation of agricultural products, were compared to calculate risk transfer ratios that show the impact of agriculture transportation. The risk transfer ratios found by the study range from 0.22 to 42.10, indicating that the quantity of transportation of agricultural products is the critical factor. High air deposition and high agricultural production are the two main contributors to the effect of the transportation of agricultural products on HRA. Risk reduction measures could be applied to high-pollution areas as well as to areas with high agricultural productivity to reduce ingestion risks to residents. Certain areas that are sensitive to the transportation of agricultural products may incur more risks if emissions increase in agriculturally productive counties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Probabilistic Risk Assessment on Maritime Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) management has been an indispensable issue in South Korea. Before a long term SNF solution is implemented, there exists the need to distribute the spent fuel pool storage loads. Transportation of SNF assemblies from populated pools to vacant ones may preferably be done through the maritime mode since all nuclear power plants in South Korea are located at coastal sites. To determine its feasibility, it is necessary to assess risks of the maritime SNF transportation. This work proposes a methodology to assess the risk arising from ship collisions during the transportation of SNF by sea. Its scope is limited to the damage probability of SNF packages given a collision event. The effect of transport parameters' variation to the package damage probability was investigated to obtain insights into possible ways to minimize risks. A reference vessel and transport cask are given in a case study to illustrate the methodology's application.

  16. Risk assessment of hazardous waste transport - perspectives of GIS application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, R.E.; Dumitrescu, M.; Stefanescu, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the increasing public awareness of the potential risks associated with waste transport, the environmental impact assessment of this activity has become an issue of major importance. This paper presents a project proposal, which can establish a national action plan for waste transport evaluation. Such a programme is sustained by the necessity to obtain an adequate method for the rapid and efficient estimation of individual and social risks due to the transport of hazardous substances in Romania. The main objective is to develop regional strategies for risk assessment in comprising: establishing the areas that must be investigated and their particular characteristics; identifying the transport activities in the areas; determining hazards; establishing the analysis criteria and prioritizing the study areas; evaluating continuous emissions; studying major accidents; studying population health; classifying the risks; establishing regional strategies; implementing political and regulatory measures. The project expectation is to provide a decision tool for risk managers and authorities in order to control or limit transportation and the storage of hazardous substances.(author)

  17. Assessment of Transportation Risk of Radioactive Materials in Uganda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richard, Menya; Kim, Jonghyun

    2014-01-01

    Radioactive materials refer to any materials that spontaneously emit ionizing radiation and of which the radioactivity per gram is greater than 0.002 micro-curie. They include: spent nuclear fuel, nuclear wastes, medical sources i.e. Co-60, industrial sources i.e. Cs-137, Am-241:Be, Ra-226, and sources for research. In view of the rising reported cancer cases in Uganda, which might be as a result of radiation exposure due to constant transportation of radioactive materials i.e. industrial sources, a risk analysis was thought of and undertaken for the country's safety evaluation and improvement. It was therefore important to undertake a risk assessment of the actual and potential radiation exposure during the transportation process. This paper explains a study undertaken for transport risk assessment of the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the industrial sources in Uganda. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with visualized transport scenarios for the highway transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of the sources along Busia transport route to Hoima. Busia is the entry port for the sources whilst Hoima, where various industrial practices that utilize sources like oil explorations are centered. During the study, a computer code RADTRAN-6 was used. The overall collective dose for population and package transport crew are 3.72E-4 and 1.69E-4 person-sievert respectively. These are less than the exemption value recommended by the IAEA and Uganda Regulatory Authority for public implying that no health effects like cancer are to be expected. Hence the rising cancer cases in the country are not as a result of increased transportation of radioactive materials in the Industrial sector

  18. Assessment of Transportation Risk of Radioactive Materials in Uganda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richard, Menya; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Radioactive materials refer to any materials that spontaneously emit ionizing radiation and of which the radioactivity per gram is greater than 0.002 micro-curie. They include: spent nuclear fuel, nuclear wastes, medical sources i.e. Co-60, industrial sources i.e. Cs-137, Am-241:Be, Ra-226, and sources for research. In view of the rising reported cancer cases in Uganda, which might be as a result of radiation exposure due to constant transportation of radioactive materials i.e. industrial sources, a risk analysis was thought of and undertaken for the country's safety evaluation and improvement. It was therefore important to undertake a risk assessment of the actual and potential radiation exposure during the transportation process. This paper explains a study undertaken for transport risk assessment of the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the industrial sources in Uganda. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with visualized transport scenarios for the highway transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of the sources along Busia transport route to Hoima. Busia is the entry port for the sources whilst Hoima, where various industrial practices that utilize sources like oil explorations are centered. During the study, a computer code RADTRAN-6 was used. The overall collective dose for population and package transport crew are 3.72E-4 and 1.69E-4 person-sievert respectively. These are less than the exemption value recommended by the IAEA and Uganda Regulatory Authority for public implying that no health effects like cancer are to be expected. Hence the rising cancer cases in the country are not as a result of increased transportation of radioactive materials in the Industrial sector.

  19. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong Gon; Byun, Hun Soo

    2014-01-01

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks

  20. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jeong Gon [Hanwha Chemical Ulsan Site, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hun Soo [Chonnam National University, Yeosu (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks.

  1. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

    2016-01-01

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

  2. Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.

  3. A route-specific system for risk assessment of radioactive materials transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, J.E.; Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.

    1995-01-01

    A low-cost, powerful geographic information system (GIS) that operates on a personal computer was integrated into a software system to provide route specific assessment of the risks associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive and hazardous materials in transportation accidents. The highway transportation risk assessment (HITRA) software system described here combines a commercially available GIS (TransCAD) with appropriate models and data files for route- and accident-specific factors, such as meteorology, dispersion, demography, and health effects to permit detailed analysis of transportation risk assessment. The HITRA system allows a user to interactively select a highway or railroad route from a GIS database of major US transportation routes. A route-specific risk assessment is then performed to estimate downwind release concentrations and the resulting potential health effects imposed on the exposed population under local environmental and temporal conditions. The integration of GIS technology with current risk assessment methodology permits detailed analysis coupled with enhanced user interaction. Furthermore, HITRA provides flexibility and documentation for route planning, updating and improving the databases required for evaluating specific transportation routes, changing meteorological and environmental conditions, and local demographics

  4. TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, A.L.

    1980-05-01

    A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

  5. Assessment of the risk of transporting uranium hexafluoride by truck and train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.; Johnson, J.F.; Davis, D.K.; Friley, J.R.; Ross, B.A.

    1978-08-01

    This report is the fifth in a series of studies of the risk of transporting potentially hazardous energy materials. The report presents an assessment of the risk of shipping uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) by truck and rail. The general risk assessment methodology, summarized in Section 3, used in this study is that developed for the first study in this series. The assessment includes the risks from release of uranium hexafluoride during truck or rail transport due to transportation accidents. The contribution to the risk of deteriorated or faulty packaging during normal transport was also considered. The report is sectioned to correspond to the specific analysis steps of the risk assessment model. The transportation system and accident environment are described in Sections 4 and 5. Calculation of the response of the shipping system to forces produced in transportation accidents are presented in Section 6 and the results of a survey to determine the condition of the package during transport are presented in Section 7. Sequences of events that could lead to a release of radioactive material from the shipping cask during transportation are postulated in Section 8 using fault tree analysis. These release sequences are evaluated in Sections 9 through 11, to determine both the likelihood and the possible consequences of each release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The results of the risk assessment have been related to the year 1985, when it is projected that 100 GW of electric power will be generated annually by nuclear power plants. It was estimated that approximately 46,000 metric tons (MT) of natural UF 6 and 14,600 MT of enriched UF 6 would be shipped in the reference year

  6. A New Approach to Feasibility Risk Assessment within Transport Infrastructure Appraisal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach of applying feasibility risk assessment within transport project infrastructure appraisal. The procedure is based upon quantitative risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in combination with conventional cost-benefit analysis converting deterministic benefit...... are, hereby, often basing their decisions on wrongful material. The presented approach to transport infrastructure appraisal is to include uncertainties and risks in the evaluation. Correspondingly, the handling of uncertainties and risk within transport project assessment are often made up...... by sensitivity tests producing deterministically based output values. Research has proven that traditional sensitivity analysis seldomnly captures the total variability especially as concerns the costs and demands estimated in the pre-stage of the evaluation. Therefore, this paper introduces an approach...

  7. Radiation risk assessment for the transport of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM B(U) type container

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Woon-Kap

    2008-01-01

    The radiation risks were estimated for the transportation of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM transport container. KRI-BGM container was specially designed for transportation of large amount of radioisotopes for industrial or medical applications. The container can carry maximum 370 TBq of solid Ir-192, 29.6 TBq of liquid Mo-99 and 37 TBq of liquid I-131 respectively. For the radiation risk assessment, it was assumed that maximum design activity of those radioisotopes was transported. Transportation route is from Daejeon where radioisotopes are produced to Seoul where radioisotopes are consumed. Transport distance is 200 km including highway and downtown area from Daejeon to Seoul. As the transportation conveyance, an ordinary cargo truck is used exclusively. Radiation risks were estimated for incident free and accident condition of transportation and RADTRAN 5.6 was used as the risk assessment tool. For the risk assessment of radioisotopes transportation, various parameters such as population density around transport route, weather condition, probability of specific accidents such as impact, fire, etc. were considered. From the results of this study, the exclusive transportation of radioisotopes using KRI-BGM transport container by truck showed low radiological risks with manageable safety and health consequences. This paper discusses the methods and results of the radiation risks assessment for the radioisotopes transportation by an ordinary truck and presents the expected radiation risks in person-Sv and latent cancer fatalities. (author)

  8. Oil spill risk assessment in maritime transportation networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yudhbir, L.; Iakovou, E.

    2005-01-01

    Commercial shippers and regulatory agencies face the challenge of evaluating the merits of various alternative policies for the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. This paper presented a new risk estimation and assignment methodology that assesses the risk costs for the bodies of water where shipping lanes exist. The methodology is based on historical spills and uses causal data to estimate risk cost between 2 points of reference for numerous products transported by a variety of vessels. In response to public concerns regarding the environmental impacts of accidental spills from tanker ships, laws have been imposed on companies for all costs relating to environmental damage. This measure has prompted the oil industry to take greater responsibility, but a better understanding of tanker re-routing on environmental sensitive areas is needed in order to implement detailed emergency response plans and greater safety precautions. This methodology addressed the need for an efficient maritime transportation system that provides routing for various vessels carrying different petroleum products. The risk estimation methodology successfully modeled a multi-objective, multi-commodity routing problem. 23 refs., 3 figs

  9. Transport of anhydrous ammoniac - risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castellano, S.; Degrange, J.P.; Hubert, P.; Pages, P.; Lamblin, J.

    1989-12-01

    This risk analysis of anhydrous ammonia transport in France was done within a study initiated by the Department of dangerous goods of the Ministry of transport. The study deals with the road and rail transportation of bulk anhydrous ammonia. After analysis of transport system and traffic, the transport accident risks are estimated, as well as their distribution on the French territory. Finally after a synthesis of results, a number of safety measures to be undertaken were identified. This is a joint study of SMC-CEPN, with a specific role of SEMA-METRA-CONSEIL concerning the traffic frequency, and the center for risk evaluation concerning nuclear safety

  10. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive materials and nuclear explosives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.; Wilson, R.K.; Hartman, W.F.

    1991-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has the lead technical role for probabilistic risk assessments of transportation of nuclear weapons, components, and special nuclear material in support of the US Department of Energy. The emphasis of the risk assessments is on evaluating the probability of inadvertent disposal of radioactive material and the consequences of such a release. This paper will provide an overview of the methodology being developed for the risk assessment and will discuss the interpretation and use of the results. The advantages and disadvantages of using risk assessment as an alternative to performance-based criteria for packaging will be described. 2 refs., 1 fig

  11. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    functions. New research proved that specifically two impacts stood out in transport project assessment, namely, travel time savings and construction costs. The final concern of this study has been the fitting of distributions, e.g. by the use of data from major databases developed in which Optimism Bias...... choosing probability distributions and performing real term data fits. The perspective of this Ph.D. study presents newer and better understanding of assigning risks within assessment of transport projects....

  12. World-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, A.M.; Elert, M.

    1983-01-01

    The aim of the project reported in this paper is to develop the means and methods for a risk analysis of the transportation of radioactive materials throughout the world. The project was initiated by the Standing Advisory Group on the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (SAGSTRAM) of the IAEA. In 1979 the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the IAEA signed an agreement on the development of a model for calculation of the transport risk. Member States of the IAEA are invited to use the model for a risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials in their own country. These assessments will be collected and analyzed and a world-wide risk assessment performed. The IAEA has the overall responsibility for the project and administers it. Sweden manages the project and has performed the applied research with the assistance of research support groups which have supplied data and analyses and performed some other parts of the project. An Oversight Committee with participants from eight Member States has reviewed the progress and has given valuable recommendations. It was important that the model had the sophistication and flexibility required for its use by all Member States but still was easy to handle. The risk calculations are performed by the computer code INTERTRAN which is based on the American computer code RADTRAN II developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The methodology of the RADTRAN II as well as data and format of the input and output was changed to make the code more internationally oriented. 2 references

  13. Assessment of the risk of transporting propane by truck and train

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1980-03-01

    The risk of shipping propane is discussed and the risk assessment methodology is summarized. The risk assessment model has been constructed as a series of separate analysis steps to allow the risk to be readily reevaluated as additional data becomes available or as postulated system characteristics change. The transportation system and accident environment, the responses of the shipping system to forces in transportation accidents, and release sequences are evaluated to determine both the likelihood and possible consequences of a release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The risk assessment results are related to the year 1985 to allow a comparison with other reports in this series. Based on the information presented, accidents involving tank truck shipments of propane will be expected to occur at a rate of 320 every year; accidents involving bobtails would be expected at a rate of 250 every year. Train accidents involving propane shipments would be expected to occur at a rate of about 60 every year. A release of any amount of material from propane trucks, under both normal transportation and transport accident conditions, is to be expected at a rate of about 110 per year. Releases from propane rail tank cars would occur about 40 times a year. However, only those releases that occur during a transportation accident or involve a major tank defect will include sufficient propane to present the potential for danger to the public. These significant releases can be expected at the lower rate of about fourteen events per year for truck transport and about one event every two years for rail tank car transport. The estimated number of public fatalities resulting from these significant releases in 1985 is fifteen. About eleven fatalities per year result from tank truck operation, and approximately half a death per year stems from the movement of propane in rail tank cars.

  14. Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment Methodology for Homeland Security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teagarden, Grant A.; Canavan, Kenneth T.; Nickell, Robert E.

    2006-01-01

    In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI was selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate a nuclear sector specific methodology for owner / operators to utilize in performing a Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) assessment for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The objective is to characterize SNF transportation risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. Worst reasonable case scenarios characterize risk for a benchmark set of threats and consequence types. A trial application was successfully performed and implementation is underway by one utility. (authors)

  15. Usefulness of the risk assessment technique in solving transportation problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.F.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-08-01

    The purpose was to develop and use a model to assess the risk associated with the shipment of nuclear and non-nuclear hazardous energy-related materials. The analysis method comprises the steps of describing the system, identifying the release sequence, evaluating the sequence, and calculating and assessing the risk. Plutonium shipment is used as an example. Uses of this method to improve transportation safety are discussed. 12 fig

  16. Critical infrastructures risk and vulnerability assessment in transportation of dangerous goods transportation by road and rail

    CERN Document Server

    Vamanu, Bogdan I; Katina, Polinpapilinho F

    2016-01-01

    This book addresses a key issue in today’s society: the safer transport of dangerous goods, taking into account people, the environment and economics. In particular, it offers a potential approach to identifying the issues, developing the models, providing the methods and recommending the tools to address the risks and vulnerabilities involved. We believe this can only be achieved by assessing those risks in a comprehensive, quantifiable and integrated manner. Examining both rail and road transportation, the book is divided into three sections, covering: the mature and accepted (by both academia and practitioners) methodology of risk assessment; the vulnerability assessment – a novel approach proposed as a vital complement to risk; guidance and support to build the tools that make methods and equations to yield: the Decision Support Systems. Throughout the book, the authors do not endeavor to provide THE solution. Instead, the book offers insightful food for thought for students, researchers, practitioner...

  17. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  18. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive material within the state of Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, C.; Oberg, S.G.; Downs, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The State of Idaho and the U.S. DOE have agreed to a one year pilot program to review and analyze DOE's off-site transportation of radioactive materials within Idaho on a shipping-campaign basis. As a part of that effort, the State of Idaho INEL Oversight Program conducts independent transportation risk assessments. These risk assessments are performed for both highway and railroad shipments using the computer codes RADTRAN4 ,and RISKIND 1.11. Some input parameters are customized with. Idaho-specific data, such as population density, accident rates and meteorological data. The dose and risk (to the public, handlers, crew, etc.) are estimated for both incident free and accident scenarios. Source term files are being built for past, current, and future shipments in Idaho. These include transuranic waste. shipments to WIPP, low level waste, mixed waste, spent fuel, and high level waste. Each shipment is analyzed for two types of transportation route segments: county segments and ten-mile segments. Risk estimation for each county segment provides information for allocation of emergency preparedness resources. Risk estimation for each ten-mile segment helps to identify higher risk segments. The dose and risk results are presented in appropriate formats for various audiences. The quantitative risk measures are used to guide appropriate levels of emergency preparedness. GIS tools are being used to graphically present risk information to elected officials and to the general public

  19. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  20. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

  1. A validation study of the intertran model for assessing risks of transportation accidents: Road transport of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomachevsky, E.G.; Ringot, C.; Pages, P.; Hubert, P.

    1985-06-01

    The INTERTRAN code was developed by the IAEA in order to provide member states with a simple and rapide method of assessing the risk involved in the transportation of radioactive materials and one which was applicable on a worldwide scale. Before being used, this code must be validated and the CEA thus compared the results obtained with the conventional risk assessment methods used by the CEPN with those derived from INTERTRAN. This paper gives the results of the studies made on the subject of road transportation of uranium hexafluoride in France. The conventional accident risk assessment method gave a figure of 8.84 x 10 -4 deaths/year, whereas INTERTRAN announces 1.78 x 10 -2 . To these figures should be added 3.38 x 10 -2 deaths/year, which is the intrinsic road risk, whatever the goods carried. In relation to conventional estimates, the INTERTRAN forecasts are five times lower for the U risk and twenty times higher for the HF risk. The chemical risk is indeed the most prevalent one in this case. Other comparisons are needed to validate this code

  2. Risk management of onsite transportation of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, O.S.; Field, J.G.

    1992-10-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site has recently undergone a significant change in its mission. The focus of site-wide operations has been shifted from production to environmental restoration. As a result, there is a significant increase in quantities of the radioactive wastes and other hazardous materials to be packaged and transported onsite. In response to the elevated transportation activities, the operations and engineering contractor for the Hanford Site, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to further enhance the safe operations of the onsite packaging and transportation activities involving radioactive and other hazardous materials. This paper summarizes Westinghouse Hanford's proposed risk assessment and risk management methodology for onsite transportation of hazardous materials. The proposed Westinghouse Hanford risk assessment and management methodology for onsite packaging and transportation has three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization process. The purposes are to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable, and to further reduce the overall risk for current and future onsite transportation activities

  3. Risk variables in evaluation of transport projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vařbuchta, Petr; Kovářová, Hana; Hromádka, Vít; Vítková, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Depending on the constantly increasing demands on assessment of investment projects, especially assessment of large-scale projects in transport and important European projects with wide impacts, there is constantly increasing focus on risk management, whether to find mitigations, creating corrective measures or their implementation in assessment, especially in the context of Cost-Benefit analysis. To project assessment is often used implementation of certain risk variables, which can generate negative impacts of project outputs in framework of assess. Especially in case of transportation infrastructure projects is taken much emphasis on the influence of risk variables. However, currently in case of assessment of transportation projects is in Czech Republic used a few risk variables, which occur in the most projects. This leads to certain limitation in framework of impact assessment of risk variables. This papers aims to specify a new risk variables and process of applying them to already executed project assessment. Based on changes generated by new risk variables will be evaluated differences between original and adapted assessment.

  4. Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luxhoj, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

  5. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive zeolite liners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The risk is estimated for the shipment of radioactive zeolite liners in support of the Zeolite Vitrification Demonstration Program currently underway at Pacific Northwest Laboratory under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy. This program will establish the feasibility of zeolite vitrification as an effective means of immobilizing high-specific-activity wastes. In this risk assessment, it is assumed that two zeolite liners, each loaded around July 1, 1981 to 60,000 Ci, will be shipped by truck around January 1, 1982. However, to provide a measure of conservatism, each liner is assumed to initially hole 70,000 Ci, with the major radioisotopes as follow: 90 Sr = 3000 Ci, 134 Cs = 7000 Ci, 137 Cs = 60,000 Ci. Should shipment take place with essentially no delay after initial loading (regardless of loading date), the shipment loading would be only 2.7% higher than that for the assumed six-month delay. This would negligibly affect the overall risk. As a result of this risk assessment, it is concluded that the transport of the radioactive zeolite liners from TMI to PNL by truck can be conducted at an insignificant level of risk to the public

  6. Transportation radiological risk assessment for the programmatic environmental impact statement: An overview of methodologies, assumptions, and input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.; Biwer, B.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future configuration of radioactive waste management at its network of facilities. Because the transportation of radioactive waste is an integral component of the management alternatives being considered, the estimated human health risks associated with both routine and accident transportation conditions must be assessed to allow a complete appraisal of the alternatives. This paper provides an overview of the technical approach being used to assess the radiological risks from the transportation of radioactive wastes. The approach presented employs the RADTRAN 4 computer code to estimate the collective population risk during routine and accident transportation conditions. Supplemental analyses are conducted using the RISKIND computer code to address areas of specific concern to individuals or population subgroups. RISKIND is used for estimating routine doses to maximally exposed individuals and for assessing the consequences of the most severe credible transportation accidents. The transportation risk assessment is designed to ensure -- through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions -- that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful. This is accomplished by uniformly applying common input parameters and assumptions to each waste type for all alternatives. The approach presented can be applied to all radioactive waste types and provides a consistent and comprehensive evaluation of transportation-related risk

  7. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  8. Risk Assessment of Structural Integrity of Transportation Casks after Extended Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibarra, Luis; Medina, Ricardo; Yang, Haori

    2018-03-23

    This study assessed the risk of loss of structural integrity of transportation casks and fuel cladding after extended storage. Although it is known that fuel rods discharged from NPPs have a small percentage of rod cladding defects, the behavior of fuel cladding and the structural elements of assemblies during transportation after long-term storage is not well understood. If the fuel degrades during extended storage, it could be susceptible to damage from vibration and impact loads during transport operations, releasing fission-product gases into the canister or the cask interior (NWTRB 2010). Degradation of cladding may occur due to mechanisms associated with hydrogen embrittlement, delayed hydride cracking, low temperature creep, and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that may affect fuel cladding and canister components after extended storage of hundreds of years. Over extended periods at low temperatures, these mechanisms affect the ductility, strength, and fracture toughness of the fuel cladding, which becomes brittle. For transportation purposes, the fuel may be transferred from storage to shipping casks, or dual-purpose casks may be used for storage and transportation. Currently, most of the transportation casks will be the former case. A risk assessment evaluation is conducted based on results from experimental tests and simulations with advanced numerical models. A novel contribution of this study is the evaluation of the combined effect of component aging and vibration/impact loads in transportation scenarios. The expected levels of deterioration will be obtained from previous and current studies on the effect of aging on fuel and cask components. The emphasis of the study is placed on the structural integrity of fuel cladding and canisters.

  9. Guidelines on the scope, content, and use of comprehensive risk assessment in the management of high-level nuclear waste transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golding, D.; White, A.

    1990-12-01

    This report discusses the scope of risk assessment strategies in the management of the transport of high-level radioactive wastes. In spite of the shortcomings of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA), the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended this as the preferred methodology to assess the risks of high level nuclear waste (HLNW) transportation. A PRA also will need to heed the lessons learned from the development and application of PRA elsewhere, such as in the nuclear power industry. A set of guidelines will aid this endeavor by outlining the appropriate scope, content, and use of a risk assessment which is more responsive to the uncertainties, human-technical interactions, social forces, and iterative relationship with risk management strategies, than traditional PRAS. This more expansive definition, which encompasses but is not totally reliant on rigorous data requirements and quantitative probability estimates, we term Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA) Guidelines will be developed in three areas: the limitations of existing methodologies and suggested modifications; CRA as part of a flexible, effective, adaptive risk management system for HLNW transportation; and, the use of CRA in risk communication

  10. Assessment of the risk of transporting spent nuclear fuel by truck

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elder, H.K.

    1978-11-01

    The assessment includes the risks from release of spent fuel materials and radioactive cask cavity cooling water due to transportation accidents. The contribution to the risk of package misclosure and degradation during normal transport was also considered. The results of the risk assessment have been related to a time in the mid-1980's, when it is projected that nuclear plants with an electrical generating capacity of 100 GW will be operating in the U.S. For shipments from reactors to interim storage facilities, it is estimated that a truck carrying spent fuel will be involved in an accident that would not be severe enough to result in a release of spent fuel material about once in 1.1 years. It was estimated that an accident that could result in a small release of radioactive material (primarily contaminated cooling water) would occur once in about 40 years. The frequency of an accident resulting in one or more latent cancer fatalities from release of radioactive materials during a truck shipment of spent fuel to interim storage was estimated to be once in 41,000 years. No accidents were found that would result in acute fatalities from releases of radioactive material. The risk for spent fuel shipments from reactors to reprocessing plants was found to be about 20% less than the risk for shipments to interim storage. Although the average shipment distance for the reprocessing case is larger, the risk is somewhat lower because the shipping routes, on average, are through less populated sections of the country. The total risk from transporting 180-day cooled spent fuel by truck in the reference year is 4.5 x 10 -5 fatalities. An individual in the population at risk would have one chance in 6 x 10 11 of suffering a latent cancer fatality from a release of radioactive material from a truck carrying spent fuel in the reference year

  11. Legal precedents regarding use and defensibility of risk assessment in Federal transportation of SNF and HLW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentz, E.J. Jr.; Bentz, C.B.; O'Hora, T.D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1997-01-01

    Risk assessment has become an increasingly important and essential tool in support of Federal decision-making regarding the handling, storage, disposal, and transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). This paper analyzes the current statutory and regulatory framework and related legal precedents with regard to SNF and HLW transportation. The authors identify key scientific and technical issues regarding the use and defensibility of risk assessment in Federal decision-making regarding anticipated shipments

  12. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary

  13. Inter-compartmental transport of organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides in South China: Implications for a regional risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Huizhen; Wei, Yanli; Lydy, Michael J.; You, Jing

    2014-01-01

    The dynamic flux of an organophosphate and four pyrethroid pesticides was determined in an air-(soil)-water-sediment system based on monitoring data from Guangzhou, China. The total air–water flux, including air–water gaseous exchange and atmospheric deposition, showed deposition from air to water for chlorpyrifos, bifenthrin and cypermethrin, but volatilization for lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin. The transport of the pesticides from overlying water to sediment suggested that sediment acted as a sink for the pesticides. Additionally, distinct annual atmospheric depositional fluxes between legacy and current-use pesticides suggested the role of consumer usage in their transport throughout the system. Finally, pesticide toxicity was estimated from annual air–water-sediment flux within an urban stream in Guangzhou. A dynamic flux-based risk assessment indicated that inter-compartmental transport of chlorpyrifos decreased its atmospheric exposure, but had little influence on its aquatic toxicity. Instead, water-to-sediment transport of pyrethroids increased their sediment toxicity, which was supported by previously reported toxicity data. - Highlights: • Transport fluxes of chlorpyrifos and pyrethroids were assessed in Guangzhou, China. • Sediment acted as a sink for chlorpyrifos and pyrethroids. • Air-to-water transport decreased the exposure risk of atmospheric chlorpyrifos. • Dynamic transport might increase the risk of pyrethroids in air and sediment. • Flux-based pesticide concentrations provide a way to estimate sediment toxicity. - Regional risk assessment could be improved by integrating dynamic flux information derived from inter-compartmental models

  14. Risk assessment of DOE defense program packages in a beyond 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Bennion, J.S.; Moore, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive program is being conducted by the DOE to determine the risks related to the domestic transportation of radioactive and hazardous materials associated with nuclear weapons. The program is designed to identify, quantify and manage potential risks to public health and safety including potential radiological and toxicological health consequences which may exceed the 10 CFR 71.73 transportation accident environment A major objective of this program being performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the University of Utah is to provide the DOE with the methodology and bases for evaluating highway transportation activities by DOE contractors. This paper describes the approach and the HITRA model which is based upon probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology and route specific data associated with the proposed transportation activity. The model is capable of providing detailed, location and time specific data for assessing projected risks to public health and safety from DOE defense program materials shipments

  15. Automating Risk Assessments of Hazardous Material Shipments for Transportation Routes and Mode Selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolphin, Barbara H.; Richins, William D.; Novascone, Stephen R.

    2010-01-01

    The METEOR project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) successfully addresses the difficult problem in risk assessment analyses of combining the results from bounding deterministic simulation results with probabilistic (Monte Carlo) risk assessment techniques. This paper describes a software suite designed to perform sensitivity and cost/benefit analyses on selected transportation routes and vehicles to minimize risk associated with the shipment of hazardous materials. METEOR uses Monte Carlo techniques to estimate the probability of an accidental release of a hazardous substance along a proposed transportation route. A METEOR user selects the mode of transportation, origin and destination points, and charts the route using interactive graphics. Inputs to METEOR (many selections built in) include crash rates for the specific aircraft, soil/rock type and population densities over the proposed route, and bounding limits for potential accident types (velocity, temperature, etc.). New vehicle, materials, and location data are added when available. If the risk estimates are unacceptable, the risks associated with alternate transportation modes or routes can be quickly evaluated and compared. Systematic optimizing methods will provide the user with the route and vehicle selection identified with the lowest risk of hazardous material release. The effects of a selected range of potential accidents such as vehicle impact, fire, fuel explosions, excessive containment pressure, flooding, etc. are evaluated primarily using hydrocodes capable of accurately simulating the material response of critical containment components. Bounding conditions that represent credible accidents (i.e; for an impact event, velocity, orientations, and soil conditions) are used as input parameters to the hydrocode models yielding correlation functions relating accident parameters to component damage. The Monte Carlo algorithms use random number generators to make selections at the various decision

  16. Risk of transporting spent nuclear fuel by train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elder, H.K.

    1981-12-01

    This paper presents results of a study which analyzes the risk of transporting spent fuel by train. The risk assessment methodology consists of 4 basic steps: (1) a description of the system being analyzed; (2) identification of sequences of events that could lead to a release of material during transportation; (3) evaluation of the probability and consequences of each release sequence; and (4) assessment of the risk and evaluation of the results. The conclusion reached was that considering the substantial benefits derived from the fuel, the current spent fuel transportation system poses reasonably low risks

  17. Assessment of transportation risk for the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; Lazaro, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Policastro, A.J.

    1995-01-01

    In its Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS), the Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future management of radioactive and hazardous waste at the facilities of the DOE complex. The alternatives involve facilities to be used for treatment, storage, and disposal of various wastes generated from DOE environmental restoration activities and waste management operations. The evaluation includes five types of waste (four types of radioactive waste plus hazardous waste), 49 sites, and numerous cases associated with each alternative for waste management. In general, the alternatives are evaluated independently for each type of waste and reflect decentralized, regionalized, and centralized approaches. Transportation of waste materials is an integral component of the EM PEIS alternatives for waste management. The estimated impact on human health that is associated with various waste transportation activities is an important component of a complete appraisal of the alternatives. The transportation risk assessment performed for the EM PEIS is designed to ensure through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful and consistent. Among other tasks, Argonne National Laboratory is providing technical assistance to the EM PEIS on transportation risk assessment. The objective is to perform a human health risk assessment for each type of waste relative to the EM PEIS alternatives for waste management. The transportation risk assessed is part of the overall impacts being analyzed for the EM PEIS to determine the safest, most environmentally and economically sound manner in which to satisfy requirements for waste management in the coming decades

  18. The contribution of human factors to risks from radioactive material transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blenkin, J.J.; Ridsdale, E.; Wilkinson, H.L.

    1998-01-01

    The use of probabilistic risk assessment to assess the safety of radioactive material transport operations is well accepted. However, quantitative risk assessment of radioactive material transport operations have generally not explicitly considered human factors in estimating risks. Given the high profile of human factors as the root cause of many serious transport incidents omission of an explicit consideration of human factors in a risk assessment could lead to assessments losing credibility. In addition, scrutiny of radioactive material transport incident databases reveals a large number of operational incidents and minor accidents that would have been avoided if more attention had been paid to human factors aspects, and provides examples of instances where improvements have been achieved. This paper examines the areas of radioactive material transport risk assessments (both qualitative and quantitative) which could be strengthened by further examination of the impact of human errors. It is concluded that a more complete and detailed understanding of the effects of human factors on the risks from radioactive material transport operations has been obtained. Quality assurance has a key part to play in ensuring that packages are correctly manufactured and prepared for transport. Risk assessments of radioactive material transport operations can be strengthened by concentrating on the key human factors effects. (authors)

  19. Risk management of onsite transportation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field, J.G.; Wang, O.S.; Mercado, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site recently has undergone a significant change in mission. The focus of operations has shifted from plutonium production to environmental restoration. This transition has caused a substantial increase in quantities of nuclear waste and other hazardous materials packaged and transported onsite. In response to the escalating transportation activity, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), the Hanford Site operations and engineering contractor, is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to enhance the safety of onsite packaging and transportation operations involving nuclear waste. The proposed methodology consists of three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization. The purpose of the methodology is to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable and to minimize the overall risk for current and future onsite operations. (authors). 2 figs., 6 refs

  20. Risk management of onsite transportation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field, J.G.; Wang, O.S.; Mercado, J.E.

    1993-03-01

    The United States Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site recently has undergone a significant change in mission. The focus of operations has shifted from plutonium production to environmental restoration. This transition has caused a substantial increase in quantities of nuclear waste and other hazardous materials packaged and transported onsite. In response to the escalating transportation activity, Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), the Hanford Site operations and engineering contractor, is proposing an integrated risk assessment methodology and risk management strategy to enhance the safety of onsite packaging and transportation operations involving nuclear waste. The proposed methodology consists of three integral parts: risk assessment, risk acceptance criteria, and risk minimization. The purpose of the methodology is to ensure that the risk for each ongoing transportation activity is acceptable and to minimize the overall risk for current and future onsite operations

  1. Urban risks of truck transport of radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1998-01-01

    Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from stakeholders based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The RADTRAN 4 code for transportation risk assessment, which was developed at Sandia National Laboratories, was used in the present study to assess the relative risks of SNF transportation for alternative routes. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment on maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation (Part II: Ship collision probability)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to assess and reduce risks of maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation with a probabilistic approach. Event trees detailing the progression of collisions leading to transport casks’ damage were constructed. Parallel and crossing collision probabilities were formulated based on the Poisson distribution. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data were processed with the Hough Transform algorithm to estimate possible intersections between the shipment route and the marine traffic. Monte Carlo simulations were done to compute collision probabilities and impact energies at each intersection. Possible safety improvement measures through a proper selection of operational transport parameters were investigated. These parameters include shipment routes, ship's cruise velocity, number of transport casks carried in a shipment, the casks’ stowage configuration and loading order on board the ship. A shipment case study is presented. Waters with high collision probabilities were identified. Effective range of cruising velocity to reduce collision risks were discovered. The number of casks in a shipment and their stowage method which gave low cask damage frequencies were obtained. The proposed methodology was successful in quantifying ship collision and cask damage frequency. It was effective in assisting decision making processes to minimize risks in maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation. - Highlights: • Proposes a probabilistic framework on the safety of spent nuclear fuel transportation by sea. • Developed a marine traffic simulation model using Generalized Hough Transform (GHT) algorithm. • A transportation case study on South Korean waters is presented. • Single-vessel risk reduction method is outlined by optimizing transport parameters.

  3. The assessment of the safety and the radiological risks associated with the transport of radioactive wastes in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieru, G.

    2000-01-01

    Problems related to the handling, treatment, packaging, storage, transportation, and disposal of radioactive wastes (radwastes) are very important and the responsibility for the safe management of radioactive wastes for the protection of human health and the environment has long been recognized. Safety and public welfare are to be considered within the radioactive waste management, particularly in the field of transportation because of the potential risk that it could pose to the public and to the environment. The IAEA regulations ensure safety in the transport of Radioactive Materials (RAM) by laying down detailed requirements, appropriate to the degree of hazard represented by the respective material, taking into account its form and quantity. Risk assessment provides a basis for routing radwastes and developing mitigation plans, prioritizing initiatives and enacting legislation to protect human beings and the environment. Factors such as shipment cost, distance, population exposed, environmental impacts or sensitivity, time in transit and infrastructure related issues, could be included in the terms of safety and risk. The paper presents risk assessment activities aimed to evaluate risk categories and the radiological consequences that may arise during normal (accident free) transport and those resulting from transport accidents involving waste shipments in Romania. (author)

  4. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive zeolite liners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallucci, R.H.V.

    1982-01-01

    The accident risk is estimated for the shipment of two zeolite liners containing radioactive cesium and strontium. Each liner, assumed to hold 68,200 Ci and sealed inside a CNS 1 to 13C, type-B shipping cask, is transported by truck over a 4200-km route. The risk to the population along the route is calculated for potential transportation accidents involving fire, impact, and puncture forces. The total risk is 5.3E-7 man-rem (50-year inhalation dose) and the maximum dose (from the least-likely accident) is 0.7 man-rem. Both estimates are less than 0.1% of comparable risk measures for natural background radiation and spent fuel shipment accidents

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 7. Environmental transport and consequence analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Kaiser, G.D.; Runkle, G.E.; Woodard, K.

    1985-08-01

    Consequence models have been designed to assess health and economic risks from potential accidents at nuclear power plants. These models have been applied to an ever increasing variety of problems with ever increasing demands to improve modeling capabilities and provide greater realism. This course discusses the environmental transport of postulated radiological releases and the elements and purpose of accident consequence evaluation

  6. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Ph; Pages, P

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago.

  7. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago

  8. Risk assessment during transport of radioactive materials through the Suez Canal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabek, M. G.; El-Shinawy, R. M. K.; Gomaa, M.

    1997-03-01

    In this paper a study for risk assessment of the impact of transporting radioactive materials, during the period 1986-1992, through the Suez Canal of Egypt is given. The code RADTRAN-IV was used for this study. The results of the code, for a normal case, show that the transportation of low activity materials such as uranium (U 3O 8) represent the main items that contribute significantly to the collective dose within the Suez Canal area (Port-Said, Ismailia and Suez). The values of the annual collective dose due to transportation of all radionuclide materials was found to be at a maximum in Suez town and is equal to 5.04 × 10 -8 Man-Sv for the whole populations. If we only consider the workder at the harbour (estimated to be 50 persons), the value of the annual collective dose is about 3.33 × 10 -4 Man-Sv. These values are less than the exemption value of 1 Man-Sv recommended by the IAEA. For the accident case, the following pathways are considered by the code: ground-shine, direct inhalation, inhalation of resuspended material and cloud-shine. The total values of the estimated risks for each radionuclide material are presented in table form and, in addition, health effects (genetic effects, GE, and latent cancer fatality), LCF) are discussed. The calculated values of the radiological risks are very low for the three towns, showing that no radiation-induced early deaths are to be expected.

  9. Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

  10. Assessment of risks and costs associated with transportation of US Department of Energy radioactively contaminated carbon steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.-Y.; Arnish, J.J.; Nieves, L.A.; Folga, S.M.

    1996-09-01

    This report provides a preliminary assessment of potential human health risks and develops unit risks and costs for transporting radioactively contaminated carbon steel (RCCS) scrap between U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The RCCS would be generated from DOE activities (current or future) and from decontamination and decommissioning of DOE facilities. The estimates of transportation system risk reflect preliminary information regarding the quantities of RCCS at some sites and the spectrum of activity in RCCS at various types of DOE facilities

  11. [Manual lifting and manual transport: risk assessment and prevalence of work-related diseases in construction companies in Basilicata].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoletti, S; Battevi, N; Colafemmina, G; Di Leone, G; Satriani, G; Ragone, P; Occhipinti, E

    2013-01-01

    The Basilicata Regional Headquarters of the Italian Institute for Insurance against Occupational Accidents and Disease (INAIL) and the Basilicata association of small building enterprises (Edilcassa di Basilicata) promoted a research project to assess the risk of manual lifting and manual transport in construction enterprises in the Basilicata Region and estimate the prevalence of related diseases. Manual lifting risk assessment was performed by calculating the VLI of 204 working days in as many building workers. Manual transport risk assessment was carried out comparing the weights transported (on the 204 days tested) with the reference values of the "Snoock and Ciriello" tables. Manual Ifting risk was present on 195 of the 204 days, with an average value of VLI equal to 2.1 (min 0.4, max 8.5), with higher values in the restructuring sector (VLI average of 2.3, min 0.4, max 8.5), and no significant differences between the different tasks. Manual transport risk was present on 129 of the 204 days, with average values of 1.2 (min 0.2, max 3.3), with no significant differences between the different tasks analyzed For both risks additional factors were present that were not analyzed by the methods of assessment used (for manual lifting: 8.8% of the geometries in the critical area; for manual transport: 39% of transport on shoulders, 42.5% on a route with uneven surface and 31.9% on a sloping route), so it is likely that the actual risk is greater than that indicated by the synthetic indices of exposure. The medical questionnaire showed from the case histories that 148 out of 546 subjects were positive for the threshold forpain or discomfort in the lumbosacral spine area and 99 out of 546 subjects reported suffering from an already diagnosed herniated spinal disk. Only 18% of osteoarticular diseases was reported to the Insurance Institute, al though there was widespread awareness that the diseases in question might be related to work. Diseases of the spine were

  12. Risk assessment for the on-site transportation of radioactive wastes for the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Chen, S.Y.

    1996-12-01

    This report documents the risk assessment performed for the on-site transportation of radioactive wastes in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). Risks for the routine shipment of wastes and the impacts from potential accidental releases are analyzed for operations at the Hanford Site (Hanford) near Richland, Washington. Like other large DOE sites, hanford conducts waste management operations for all wastes types; consequently, the impacts calculated for Hanford are expected to be greater than those for smaller sites. The risk assessment conducted for on-site transportation is intended to provide an estimate of the magnitude of the potential risk for comparison with off-site transportation risks assessed for the WM PEIS

  13. Formal Vulnerability Assessment of a maritime transportation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berle, Oyvind; Asbjornslett, Bjorn Egil; Rice, James B.

    2011-01-01

    World trade increasingly relies on longer, larger and more complex supply chains, where maritime transportation is a vital backbone of such operations. Long and complex supply chain systems are more prone to being vulnerable, though through reviews, no specific methods have been found to assess vulnerabilities of a maritime transportation system. Most existing supply chain risk assessment frameworks require risks to be foreseen to be mitigated, rather than giving transportation systems the ability to cope with unforeseen threats and hazards. In assessing cost-efficiency, societal vulnerability versus industrial cost of measures should be included. This conceptual paper presents a structured Formal Vulnerability Assessment (FVA) methodology, seeking to transfer the safety-oriented Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework into the domain of maritime supply chain vulnerability. To do so, the following two alterations are made: (1) The focus of the assessment is defined to ensure the ability of the transportation to serve as a throughput mechanism of goods, and to survive and recover from disruptive events. (2) To cope with low-frequency high-impact disruptive scenarios that were not necessarily foreseen, two parallel tracks of risk assessments need to be pursued-the cause-focused risk assessment as in the FSA, and a consequence-focused failure mode approach.

  14. Analysis of rail accident frequencies and severities for the assessment of radioactive material transport risk - Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heywood, J.D.; Schwartz, G.; Fett, J.

    2001-01-01

    This shortened version of the final contractual report to the European Commission DGXVII summarises the work performed and the conclusions drawn from consideration, comparison and analysis of transport accident frequency and severity assessment methods for radioactive material transport by rail. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the study whose final report is 155 pages in length. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of transport risk assessment methods and related databases available to EU member states. The emphasis has been on the probabilistic accident severity and frequency assessment methodologies developed and used by the organisations involved in this EU-funded research project - AEA Technology and GRS. The results should be of major assistance in the understanding and development of standardised quantitative risk assessment models. Further work is suggested to underpin the development of a harmonised accident methodology including the collection of more detailed rail data and analysis on a year by year basis as well as further consideration of the assumptions made for fire accident scenarios. (author)

  15. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  16. Comprehensive transportation risk assessment system based on unit-consequence factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement requires a comprehensive transportation risk analysis of radioactive waste shipments for large shipping campaigns. Thousands of unique shipments involving truck and rail transport must be analyzed; a comprehensive risk analysis is impossible with currently available methods. Argonne National Laboratory developed a modular transportation model that can handle the demands imposed by such an analysis. The modular design of the model facilitates the simple addition/updating of transportation routes and waste inventories, as required, and reduces the overhead associated with file maintenance and quality assurance. The model incorporates unit-consequences factors generated with the RADTRAN 4 transportation risk analysis code that are combined with an easy-to-use, menu-driven interface on IBM-compatible computers running under DOS. User selection of multiple origin/destination site pairs for the shipment of multiple radioactive waste inventories is permitted from pop-up lists. Over 800 predefined routes are available among more than 30 DOE sites and waste inventories that include high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, transuranic waste, low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, and greater-than-Class C waste

  17. Risk assessment for the transportation of radioactive materials in the U.S.A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.R.; Luna, R.E.; Taylor, J.M.; DuCharme, A.R.

    1976-01-01

    The radiological risk of transporting radioactive materials in the United States was evaluated in terms of expected additional latent cancer fatalities (LCF). Two risks were estimated: that resulting from normal (accident-free) transport and that resulting from transportation accidents involving radioactive shipments. A standard shipments model was devised to represent the radioactive material shipping industry. The calculation of the normal transport risk included estimates of exposures to aircraft passengers and crew, truck drivers, cargo handlers, and population along the transport link. The accident risk calculation incorporated accident probabilities and package release fraction estimates. Dispersible materials were assumed to be aerosolized in severe accidents and the aerosol cloud transported downwind according to a Gaussian diffusion model. An annual normal transport risk of 9600 person-rem, or 1.2 LCF, resulted primarily from radiopharmaceutical shipments. The annual risk due to accidents was 5.6 x 10 -4 LCF, resulting almost entirely from PuO 2 shipments

  18. Risk assessment for the on-site transportation of radioactive wastes for the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Chen, S.Y.

    1995-04-01

    This report documents the risk assessment performed for the on-site transportation of radioactive wastes in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Waste Management (WM) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). Risks for the routine shipment of wastes and the impacts from potential accidental releases are analyzed for operations at the Hanford Site (Hanford) near Richland, Washington. Like other large DOE sites, Hanford conducts waste management operations for all wastes types; consequently, the impacts calculated for Hanford are expected to be greater than those for smaller sites. The risk assessment conducted for on-site transportation is intended to provide an estimate of the magnitude of the potential risk for comparison with off-site transportation risks assessed for the WM PEIS

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment and nuclear waste transportation: A case study of the use of RADTRAN in the 1986 Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resnikoff, M.

    1990-12-01

    The analysis of the risks of transporting irradiated nuclear fuel to a federal repository, Appendix A of the DOE Environmental Assessment for Yucca Mountain (DOE84), is based on the RADTRAN model and input parameters. The RADTRAN computer code calculates the radiation exposures and health effects under normal or incident-free transport, and over all credible accident conditions. The RADTRAN model also calculates the economic consequences of transportation accidents, though these costs were not included in the Department's Environmental Assessment for the proposed Yucca Mountain repository

  20. Assessing the transport and fate of bioengineered microorganisms in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Palumbo, A.V.

    1985-01-01

    We review the methods currently available for quantifying the transport and fate of microbes in atmospheric and aqueous media and assess their adequacy for purposes of risk assessment. We review the literature on transport and fate of microorganisms, including studies of: (1) pathways of migration, (2) the survival of microorganisms during transport and fate. In addition, we review the transport and fate models that have been used in environmental risk assessments for radionuclides and toxic chemicals and evaluate their applicability to the problem of assessing environmental risks of bioengineered microorganisms

  1. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  2. A method to assess multi-modal hazmat transport security vulnerabilities: Hazmat transport SVA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2013-01-01

    The suggested Hazmat transport Security Vulnerability Assessment (SVA) methodology presents a user-friendly approach to determine relative security risk levels of the different modes of hazardous freight transport (i.e., road, railway, inland waterways and pipeline transportation). First, transport

  3. Feasibility Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Decision Support Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2010-01-01

    informed decision support towards decision-makers and stakeholders in terms of accumulated descending graphs. The decision support method developed in this paper aims to provide assistance in the analysis and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding any transport......This paper presents the final version of the CBA-DK decision support model for assessment of transport projects. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation resulting in interval...... result, and the determination of suitable probability distributions. Use is made of the reference class forecasting information, such as that developed in Optimism Bias for adjustments to investment decisions that relate to all modes of transport. The CBA-DK decision support model results in more...

  4. Multi-Drug Resistance Transporters and a Mechanism-Based Strategy for Assessing Risks of Pesticide Combinations to Honey Bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guseman, Alex J; Miller, Kaliah; Kunkle, Grace; Dively, Galen P; Pettis, Jeffrey S; Evans, Jay D; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis; Hawthorne, David J

    2016-01-01

    Annual losses of honey bee colonies remain high and pesticide exposure is one possible cause. Dangerous combinations of pesticides, plant-produced compounds and antibiotics added to hives may cause or contribute to losses, but it is very difficult to test the many combinations of those compounds that bees encounter. We propose a mechanism-based strategy for simplifying the assessment of combinations of compounds, focusing here on compounds that interact with xenobiotic handling ABC transporters. We evaluate the use of ivermectin as a model substrate for these transporters. Compounds that increase sensitivity of bees to ivermectin may be inhibiting key transporters. We show that several compounds commonly encountered by honey bees (fumagillin, Pristine, quercetin) significantly increased honey bee mortality due to ivermectin and significantly reduced the LC50 of ivermectin suggesting that they may interfere with transporter function. These inhibitors also significantly increased honey bees sensitivity to the neonicotinoid insecticide acetamiprid. This mechanism-based strategy may dramatically reduce the number of tests needed to assess the possibility of adverse combinations among pesticides. We also demonstrate an in vivo transporter assay that provides physical evidence of transporter inhibition by tracking the dynamics of a fluorescent substrate of these transporters (Rhodamine B) in bee tissues. Significantly more Rhodamine B remains in the head and hemolymph of bees pretreated with higher concentrations of the transporter inhibitor verapamil. Mechanism-based strategies for simplifying the assessment of adverse chemical interactions such as described here could improve our ability to identify those combinations that pose significantly greater risk to bees and perhaps improve the risk assessment protocols for honey bees and similar sensitive species.

  5. Comparison of the Transportation Risks Resulting from Accidents during the Transportation of the Spent Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong Jong Tae; Cho, Dong Kuen; Choi, Heui Joo; Choi, Jong Won

    2007-01-01

    The safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable disposal of high level wastes and spent fuels is becoming a very important issue. The operational safety assessment of a repository including a transportation safety assessment is a fundamental part in order to achieve this goal. According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for spent fuels. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from the accidents during the transportation of spent fuels for these four transportation scenarios

  6. Ecological Risk Assessment of the Southern Fujian Golden Triangle in China Based on Regional Transportation Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Yang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Regional transportation development (RTD is an important stressor of urban agglomeration ecosystems. Groundwater recharge potential may be adversely affected when natural soil is replaced by impervious materials. To systematically identify the urban agglomeration ecological risk (UAER of RTD in the southern Fujian Golden Triangle, water regulation was used as an assessment endpoint, and RTD was considered the stressor. We used the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN to analyze the internal relationship between the assessment endpoint and the stressor factors. Then, a multi-level risk characterization method was used to show the evolutionary process of risk, and to provide a scientific basis for the management of UAER. Based on the current RTD plan, the UAER assessment shows that there is a 0.90 probability of that the risk distribution results will occur by 2030. The intensity of stress from arterial roads on the urban agglomeration ecosystem is greater than that of the railway system. By considering the development of the railway system as a factor in the stress of RTD, this study of UAER assessment differs from past studies of urban ecological risk assessment, since the latter considers only highways. We also propose a systematic method of risk assessment simulation-prediction.

  7. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving type A package shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper is an account of work performed within a multi-lateral research project on the radiological risks associated with the transportation of Type A packaged radioactive material. The research project has been performed on behalf of the European Commission and various national agencies of the participating countries and involved organizations and institutes of five EU Member States, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. The main objectives of the research project were the assessment and appraisal of the potential radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A package shipments in participating EU Member States. Data were collected and include harmonized sets information related to the type, quantity and characteristics of Type A package shipments by road. Such databases were basically non-existent until recently. The results are expected to be valuable to both national agencies and international organizations, with responsibilities for the safe transport of radioactive materials by providing some insight in the carriage of radioactive materials by road making up a major fraction of radioactive material transports. Similarly, a wide body of information has been collected and compiled on road transport accidents in terms of the frequency of occurrence and the severity of accidental impact loads potentially experienced by a Type A package.In addition, the results will facilitate judgement of the adequacy of the IAEA Transport Regulations as far as Type A packages are concerned. (O.M.)

  8. Risk assessment for truck-transport assuming different concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tully, A.; Sonnenschein, R.; Haeusler, S.

    1983-01-01

    The different concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle existing in the Federal Republic of Germany require that various types of radioactive materials will be transported along different pathways, for various distances and at different frequencies, thus resulting in different risks to the public. In one part of the second phase of the R + D program Projekt Sicherheitsstudien Entsorgung (PSE), the risk during normal and accident conditions will be assessed for each of the concepts of the back-end of the fuel cycle. Within this part of the safety analysis, DORNIER SYSTEM will determine the risks resulting from the transport of radioactive materials by truck, using the probabilistic method of fault tree analysis. This part of the investigation will extend until the end of 1983. 4 references, 5 tables

  9. Personal exposure and health risk assessment of carbonyls in family cars and public transports-a comparative study in Nanjing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Huaizhou; Zhang, Qin; Song, Ninghui; Guo, Min; Zhang, Shenghu; Ji, Guixiang; Shi, Lili

    2017-11-01

    To evaluate passenger health risks associated with inhalation exposure to carbonyl compounds mainly emitted from decoration materials of vehicles, we tested the carbonyl concentrations in interior air of 20 family cars, 6 metro lines, and 5 buses in the city of Nanjing. To assess non-carcinogenic health risks, we compared the data to the health guidelines of China, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA), respectively. To assess carcinogenic risks, we followed a standard approach proposed by the OEHHA to calculate lifetime cancer risks (LCR) of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde for various age groups. The results showed that there are formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein concentrations in 40, 35, and 50% of family car samples exceeded the reference concentrations (RfCs) provided by Chinese guidelines (GB/T 27630-2011 and GB/T 18883-2002). Whereas, in the tested public transports, concentrations of the three carbonyls were all below the Chinese RfCs. Fifty and 90% of family cars had formaldehyde and acrolein concentrations exceeding the guidelines of OEHHA. Only one public transport sample (one bus) possesses formaldehyde and acetaldehyde concentrations above the chronic inhalation reference exposure limits (RELs). Furthermore, the assessments of carcinogenic risk of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde showed that lifetime cancer risks were higher than the limits of EPA for some family cars and public transports. In the study, buses and metros appear to be relatively clean environments, with total carbonyl concentrations that do not exceed 126 μg/m 3 . In family cars, carbonyl levels showed significant variations from 6.1 to 811 μg/m 3 that was greatly influenced by direct emissions from materials inside the vehicles. Public transports seemed to be the first choice for resident trips as compared to family cars. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

  10. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RISK MANAGEMENT IN SERBIAN INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todor Backalic

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes require special attention and global monitoring. Impacts on nature and industry are increasingly evident. Water transport could be the backbone of the future European combined transport system. Unfortunately, risks in water transport are perhaps an under researched area and consequently, this article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about risk in water transport. The development of the cargo transport in river traffic depends directly on technical-exploitative characteristics of the network of inland waterways. Research of navigational abilities of inland waterways always comes before building ships or making a transport schedule. Navigation characteristics of rivers have to be determined as precise as possible, especially from the aspect of determination the possible draught of vessels. River transport due to their operational business and environmental conditions faced with several risks having different degrees of consequences. Current risk assessment methods for water transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of water transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes on Serbian rivers during the last sixty years was done.

  11. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Yoon, Hongkyu [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87123 (United States); Barkan, Christopher P.L. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1243 Newmark Civil Engineering Laboratory, 205 North Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

    2014-01-15

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials.

  12. Environmental risk analysis of hazardous material rail transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saat, Mohd Rapik; Werth, Charles J.; Schaeffer, David; Yoon, Hongkyu; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Comprehensive, nationwide risk assessment of hazardous material rail transportation. • Application of a novel environmental (i.e. soil and groundwater) consequence model. • Cleanup cost and total shipment distance are the most significant risk factors. • Annual risk varies from $20,000 to $560,000 for different products. • Provides information on the risk cost associated with specific product shipments. -- Abstract: An important aspect of railroad environmental risk management involves tank car transportation of hazardous materials. This paper describes a quantitative, environmental risk analysis of rail transportation of a group of light, non-aqueous-phase liquid (LNAPL) chemicals commonly transported by rail in North America. The Hazardous Materials Transportation Environmental Consequence Model (HMTECM) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of environmental characteristics to develop probabilistic estimates of exposure to different spill scenarios along the North American rail network. The risk analysis incorporated the estimated clean-up cost developed using the HMTECM, route-specific probability distributions of soil type and depth to groundwater, annual traffic volume, railcar accident rate, and tank car safety features, to estimate the nationwide annual risk of transporting each product. The annual risk per car-mile (car-km) and per ton-mile (ton-km) was also calculated to enable comparison between chemicals and to provide information on the risk cost associated with shipments of these products. The analysis and the methodology provide a quantitative approach that will enable more effective management of the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials

  13. Preliminary assessment of costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by barge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, R.L.; Meshkov, N.K.; Jones, R.H.

    1985-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the costs and risks associated with transporting spent fuel by barge. The barge movements would be made in combination with rail movements to transport spent fuel from plants to a repository. For the purpose of this analysis, three candidate repository sites are analyzed: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Deaf Smith, Texas, and Hanford, Washington. This report complements a report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories in 1984 that analyzes the costs and risks of transporting spent fuel by rail and by truck to nine candidate repository sites

  14. GIS risk analysis of hazardous materials transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anders, C.; Olsten, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to assess the risks and vulnerability of transporting hazardous materials and wastes (such as gasoline, explosives, poisons, etc) on the Arizona highway system. This paper discusses the methodology that was utilized, and the application of GIS systems to risk analysis problems

  15. PRESTO-II, Low Level Radioactive Waste Transport and Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: PRESTO-II evaluates possible health effects from shallow-land and waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non- site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population fora 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach developed by EPA (CCC-422/RADRISK). The DARTAB model is used in modified form to generate human health risk estimates from radionuclide concentrations and intake values. 2 - Method of solution: PRESTO-II tracks radionuclide transport through surface and subsurface pathways and human exposures through external exposure, inhalation, and ingestion with a resolution of 1 y. The methodology is mechanistic, and physical transport processes are modeled separately and in detail. PRESTO-II computes infiltration through the trench cap from experimentally determined permeability and hourly precipitation values. Watershed infiltration is determined using a parametric evapotranspiration equation requiring input values for several site variables. A finite element approach is used to compute trench water balance. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PRESTO-II model is most appropriately used as a

  16. Risks in U.S. energy material transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, A.L.; Rhoads, R.E.; Andrews, W.B.

    1982-01-01

    For the past five years, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory has been conducting a programme to study the safety of transporting energy materials. The overall objectives of the programme are to develop information on the safety of transporting hazardous materials required to support the major energy cycles in the USA. This information was developed for use in making energy policy decisions; in designing and developing new or improved transportation systems for these materials; to help establish research priorities; and as an aid in developing effective transportation safety regulations. Risk analysis was selected as the methodology for performing these studies. This methodology has been applied to rail and highway shipments of nuclear fuel cycle materials and liquid and gaseous fossil fuels. Studies of the risks of transporting spent nuclear fuel by train and uranium ore concentrates (yellow cake) by truck were expected to be issued early in 1981. Analyses of the risks of transporting reactor waste and transuranic wastes are in progress. The work completed to date for nuclear material transportation makes it possible to estimate the transportation risks for the entire fuel cycle in the USA. Results of the assessment are presented in this paper. Because the risk analysis studies for the transportation of gasoline, propane and chlorine have been performed using a methodology, basic assumptions and data that are consistent with the studies that have been performed for nuclear materials, comparisons between the risks for nuclear materials and these materials can also be made. It should be noted that it is not the intention of these comparisons to judge the safety of one industry in comparison with another. These comparisons can, however, provide some insights into the regulatory philosophy for hazardous materials transportation. The remaining sections of the paper briefly review the risk-analysis methodology used in these studies, provide an overview of the systems

  17. Risk assessment for the off-site transportation of high-level waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1996-12-01

    This report describes the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of high-level waste (HLW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers risks to collective populations and individuals under both routine and accident transportation conditions for truck and rail shipment modes. The report discusses the scope of the HLW transportation assessment, describes the analytical methods used for the assessment, defines the alternatives considered in the WM PEIS, and details important assessment assumptions. Results are reported for five alternatives. In addition, to aid in the understanding and interpretation of the results, specific areas of uncertainty are described, with an emphasis on how the uncertainties may affect comparisons of the alternatives

  18. Regional risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials

    OpenAIRE

    Nardini, L.; Aparicio, L.; Bandoni, A.; Tonelli, S. M.

    2003-01-01

    An increasing concern over the level of risk associated with hazardous materials transportation has led international efforts to focus on risk assessment at regional level. Following this trend, the aim of this work is to review the latest procedures for analysing the regional risks resulting from hazardous materials transportation by means of road and rail. In particular, two methodologies are reviewed and discussed, a method recently developed at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [1] an...

  19. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  20. Supplemental information related to risk assessment for the off-site transportation of low-level mixed waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Antonopoulos, A.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Policastro, A.J.; Chen, S.Y.

    1996-12-01

    This report provides supplemental information to support the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers both the radioactive and chemical hazards associated with LLMW transportation. Detailed descriptions of the transportation health risk assessment methods and results of the assessment are presented in Appendix E of the WM PEIS. This report presents additional information that is not included in Appendix E but that was needed to conduct the transportation risk assessment for Waste Management (WM) LLMW. Included are definitions of the LLMW alternatives considered in the WM PEIS; data related to the inventory and to the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of WM LLMW; an overview of the risk assessment methods; and detailed results of the assessment for each WM LLMW case considered

  1. Supplemental information related to risk assessment for the off-site transportation of low-level mixed waste for the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.

    1995-04-01

    This report provides supplemental information to support the human health risk assessment conducted for the transportation of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) in support of the US Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS). The assessment considers both the radioactive and chemical hazards associated with LLMW transportation. Detailed descriptions of the transportation health risk assessment methods and results of the assessment are presented in Appendix E of the WM PEIS. This report presents additional information that is not included in Appendix E but is necessary to conduct the transportation risk assessment for Waste Management (WM) LLMW. Included are definitions of the LLMW alternatives considered in the WM PEIS; data related to the inventory and to the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of WM LLMW; an overview of the risk assessment methods; and detailed results of the assessment for each WM LLMW case considered

  2. Assessing the Climate Resilience of Transport Infrastructure Investments in Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, J. W.; Pant, R.; Koks, E.; Thacker, S.; Russell, T.

    2017-12-01

    Whilst there is an urgent need for infrastructure investment in developing countries, there is a risk that poorly planned and built infrastructure will introduce new vulnerabilities. As climate change increases the magnitudes and frequency of natural hazard events, incidence of disruptive infrastructure failures are likely to become more frequent. Therefore, it is important that infrastructure planning and investment is underpinned by climate risk assessment that can inform adaptation planning. Tanzania's rapid economic growth is placing considerable strain on the country's transportation infrastructure (roads, railways, shipping and aviation); especially at the port of Dar es Salaam and its linking transport corridors. A growing number of natural hazard events, in particular flooding, are impacting the reliability of this already over-used network. Here we report on new methodology to analyse vulnerabilities and risks due to failures of key locations in the intermodal transport network of Tanzania, including strategic connectivity to neighboring countries. To perform the national-scale risk analysis we will utilize a system-of-systems methodology. The main components of this general risk assessment, when applied to transportation systems, include: (1) Assembling data on: spatially coherent extreme hazards and intermodal transportation networks; (2) Intersecting hazards with transport network models to initiate failure conditions that trigger failure propagation across interdependent networks; (3) Quantifying failure outcomes in terms of social impacts (customers/passengers disrupted) and/or macroeconomic consequences (across multiple sectors); and (4) Simulating, testing and collecting multiple failure scenarios to perform an exhaustive risk assessment in terms of probabilities and consequences. The methodology is being used to pinpoint vulnerability and reduce climate risks to transport infrastructure investments.

  3. Transport of anhydrous ammoniac - risk assessment; Le transport de l'ammoniac anhydre - analyse et estimation des risques: rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castellano, S; Degrange, J P; Hubert, P; Pages, P; Lamblin, J

    1989-12-01

    This risk analysis of anhydrous ammonia transport in France was done within a study initiated by the Department of dangerous goods of the Ministry of transport. The study deals with the road and rail transportation of bulk anhydrous ammonia. After analysis of transport system and traffic, the transport accident risks are estimated, as well as their distribution on the French territory. Finally after a synthesis of results, a number of safety measures to be undertaken were identified. This is a joint study of SMC-CEPN, with a specific role of SEMA-METRA-CONSEIL concerning the traffic frequency, and the center for risk evaluation concerning nuclear safety.

  4. Transportation needs assessment: Emergency response section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-05-01

    The transportation impacts of moving high level nuclear waste (HLNW) to a repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada are of concern to the residents of the State as well as to the residents of other states through which the nuclear wastes might be transported. The projected volume of the waste suggests that shipments will occur on a daily basis for some period of time. This will increase the risk of accidents, including a catastrophic incident. Furthermore, as the likelihood of repository construction and operation and waste shipments increase, so will the attention given by the national media. This document is not to be construed as a willingness to accept the HLNW repository on the part of the State. Rather it is an initial step in ensuring that the safety and well-being of Nevada residents and visitors and the State's economy will be adequately addressed in federal decision-making pertaining to the transportation of HLNW into and across Nevada for disposal in the proposed repository. The Preferred Transportation System Needs Assessment identifies critical system design elements and technical and social issues that must be considered in conducting a comprehensive transportation impact analysis. Development of the needs assessment and the impact analysis is especially complex because of the absence of information and experience with shipping HLNW and because of the ''low probability, high consequence'' aspect of the transportation risk

  5. Transportation needs assessment: Emergency response section

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1989-05-01

    The transportation impacts of moving high level nuclear waste (HLNW) to a repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada are of concern to the residents of the State as well as to the residents of other states through which the nuclear wastes might be transported. The projected volume of the waste suggests that shipments will occur on a daily basis for some period of time. This will increase the risk of accidents, including a catastrophic incident. Furthermore, as the likelihood of repository construction and operation and waste shipments increase, so will the attention given by the national media. This document is not to be construed as a willingness to accept the HLNW repository on the part of the State. Rather it is an initial step in ensuring that the safety and well-being of Nevada residents and visitors and the State`s economy will be adequately addressed in federal decision-making pertaining to the transportation of HLNW into and across Nevada for disposal in the proposed repository. The Preferred Transportation System Needs Assessment identifies critical system design elements and technical and social issues that must be considered in conducting a comprehensive transportation impact analysis. Development of the needs assessment and the impact analysis is especially complex because of the absence of information and experience with shipping HLNW and because of the ``low probability, high consequence`` aspect of the transportation risk.

  6. Assessment of health risks brought about by transportation of spent fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suolanen, V.; Lautkaski, R.; Rossi, J.

    1999-03-01

    In the study health risks caused by transportation of spent fuel from Olkiluoto and from Loviisa NPP's to the planned disposal site have been evaluated. The Olkiluoto NPP is owned by Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) and the Loviisa NPP, situated at Haestholmen, by Fortum Power and Heat Oy. According to the base scenario of 40 years use of the current NPP's the total amount of spent fuel will be 1840 tU (TVO) and 860 tU (Fortum). Annually, 110 tU on the average and at most 250 tU will be transported to the disposal site. The considered transportation routes are from Olkiluoto to Haestholmen, from Olkiluoto to Kivetty, from Olkiluoto to Romuvaara, from Haestholmen to Olkiluoto, from Haestholmen to Kivetty and from Haestholmen to Romuvaara. The considered transportation modes are truck, rail or ship, or combinations of these modes. Each transportation route has been divided into homogenised sequences with respect to population density and/or route type. Total amount of analysed route options were 40, some route sequences are overlapping. Radiation exposures to the population along the routes have been calculated in normal, incident and accident situations during transportation. Occupational radiation doses to the personnel have been estimated for normal transportation only. The consequences of normal transportation have been evaluated based on RADTRAN-model, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories. As incidents, stopping of spent fuel transportation for an exceptionally long period of time, and in another case contamination of outer surface of spent fuel cask have been considered. Expected collective doses and health risks of transportation accidents connected to the routes have been calculated with RADTRAN-model. Single hypothetical transport accidents with pessimistic release assumptions have been further analysed in more detail with the ARANO-model, developed by VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland). (orig.)

  7. The approach of risk and safety evaluation in radioactive waste transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieru, G.

    1996-01-01

    Within Institute for Nuclear Research (INR) Pitesti, qualification tests were performed on packages, designed for transport and storage of low activity radioactive waste. Risk assessment activities aiming the evaluation of risk categories that many arise either during accident free transport or during accident conditions of waste transportation to the disposal center, in Romania, have been approached. The accident rates calculation, the distribution within accident scenarios and overall effective collective dose (man.Sv/year),for routine road transportation and the accidental Risk (man.Sv/Year) were determined

  8. Perceived risks of radioactive waste transport through Oregon: Results of a statewide survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGregor, D.; Slovic, P.; Mason, R.G.; Detweiler, J.; Binney, S.E.; Dodd, B.

    1994-01-01

    Transportation of hazardous materials, and particularly radioactive wastes, on public highways has become an important risk management issue. The unfavorability of public attitudes regarding hazardous and nuclear waste signals the potential for strong public opposition to programs for transporting these materials. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted to assess public reactions to a long-term nuclear waste transport program planned to follow a route through a portion of rural Oregon. The survey assessed a number of key risk perception issues, including perceived health and safety risks of nuclear waste transport, relative risks of transport vs. storage at an existing site, trust in state officials, and satisfaction with life in communities along the transport route. The survey identified a number of attitudes and concerns that need to be understood and considered by those in charge of designing and implementing the waste-transportation program. 22 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs

  9. Transportation risk assessment for the US Department of Energy Environmental Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Monette, F.A.; Biwer, B.M.; Lazaro, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Policastro, A.J.

    1994-01-01

    In its Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS), the Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future management of radioactive and hazardous waste at the facilities of the DOE complex. The alternatives involve facilities to be used for treatment, storage, and disposal of various wastes generated from DOE's environmental restoration activities and waste management operation. Included in the evaluation are six types of waste (five types of radioactive waste plus hazardous waste), 49 sites, and numerous cases associated with each different alternative for waste management. In general, the alternatives are evaluated independently for each type of waste and reflect decentralized, regionalized, and centralized approaches. Transportation of waste materials is an integral component of the EM PEIS alternatives for waste management. The estimated impact on human health that is associated with various waste transportation activities is an important element leading to a complete appraisal of the alternatives. The transportation risk assessment performed for the EM PEIS is designed to ensure -- through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions -- that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful and consistent

  10. Consensus Ecological Risk Assessment of Potential Transportation-related Bakken and Dilbit Crude Oil Spills in the Delaware Bay Watershed, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann Hayward Walker

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Unconventionally-produced crude oils, i.e., Bakken oil and bitumen diluted for transport and known as dilbit, have become prominent components of the North American petroleum industry. Spills of these oils have occurred during transport from production areas to refineries via pipeline, rail, and barge. Some of their physical and chemical properties are distinct and present new challenges in mitigating spill impacts on people and the environment. This paper describes the adaptation of a qualitative risk assessment process to improve spill preparedness and response decisions for these oils when transported in an estuarine area. The application of this collaborative, interdisciplinary process drew upon a literature review, the local knowledge and experience of a broad set of decision makers, practitioners, and technical experts who developed consensus-based recommendations aimed at improving response to spills of these oils. Two emphasized components of this consensus ecological risk assessment (CERA concerned risks: (1 to human health and safety and (2 from spilled oil and the associated response actions on endangered species. Participants in the process defined levels of concern associated with Bakken and dilbit oils relative to a set of response actions in freshwater, brackish and saltwater habitats and on resources at risk.

  11. Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the US Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.; Chang, Y.S.

    1996-12-01

    This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II) and presents the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

  12. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... the release of some quantity of radioactive material during a severe accident. This investigation... assessment, the measure of safety was the risk of radiation doses to the public under routine and accident... assumptions has made the estimate of accident risk from the release of radioactive material in this study...

  13. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  14. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  15. How to assess extreme weather impacts - case European transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leviäkangas, P.

    2010-09-01

    To assess the impacts of climate change and preparing for impacts is a process. This process we must understand and learn to apply. EWENT (Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport) will be a test bench for one prospective approach. It has the following main components: 1) identifying what is "extreme", 2) assessing the change in the probabilities, 3) constructing the causal impact models, 4) finding appropriate methods of pricing and costing, 5) finding alternative strategy option, 6) assessing the efficiency of strategy option. This process follows actually the steps of standardized risk management process. Each step is challenging, but if EWENT project succeeds to assess the extreme weather impacts on European transport networks, it is one possible benchmark how to carry out similar analyses in other regions and on country level. EWENT approach could particularly useful for weather and climate information service providers, offering tools for transport authorities and financiers to assess weather risks, and then rationally managing the risks. EWENT project is financed by the European Commission and participated by met-service organisations and transport research institutes from different parts of Europe. The presentation will explain EWENT approach in detail and bring forth the findings of the first work packages.

  16. Transport Assessment and Risk Analysis: the case of the 2nd fixed link across the Danube River

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Mudova, Nedyalka

    2009-01-01

    of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. By extending this principle into stochastic modelling in terms of quantitative risk analysis (QRA), so-called feasibility risk assessment is provided by moving from point (deterministic CBA) to interval (stochastic QRA) results. Hereby, decision......The scope of this paper is to present a new methodology for appraising transport infrastructure projects. Conventionally, transport infrastructure appraisal is conducted by the use of cost-benefit analyses (CBA) in order to produce aggregated single point estimates (DMT, 2003). However, new...... research has proved that the embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of high significance. The paper investigates the latter two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation...

  17. Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods: a validated platform for decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, Adrian V.; Birchmeier, Juerg; Vamanu, Dan; Papazoglou, Ioannis; Kroeger, Wolfgang

    2005-01-01

    Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i)statistics-based loss of containment frequencies, (ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and (iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function). Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i)the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data, (ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and (iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site. Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the

  18. Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.

    1995-04-01

    This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II), as well as providing the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

  19. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

    2016-01-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide

  20. TRANSPORT OUTSOURCING AND TRANSPORT COLLABORATION RELATIONSHIP - THE RISK HEDGING PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurđica M. Stojanović

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although transport outsourcing decision-making and collaborative transport management (CTM have been “hot topics” for years, their links are still not thoroughly explored. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between them. In particular, we focus on the conflicting and complementary features of these concepts with regard to their capability to hedge against transport outsourcing-related risks. Transport outsourcing is often a tool for transferring part of the demand risks from the primary parties in supply chains to transport service providers. However, new relationships introduce some new risks - outsourcing contract risks. It is important to identify, estimate and compare such kinds of risks. Transport collaboration may decrease both the demand risks and the outsourcing contract risks, although the relationship with the latter is more complex. It is used an exploratory research based on a combination of a literature review and empirical examples.

  1. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  2. A TRANSPORTATION RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR ANALYZING THE TRANSPORT OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL AND HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE TO THE PROPOSED YUCCA MOUNTAIN REPOSITORY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) analysis addressed the potential for transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from 77 origins for 34 types of spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste, 49,914 legal weight truck shipments, and 10,911 rail shipments. The analysis evaluated transportation over 59,250 unique shipment links for travel outside Nevada (shipment segments in urban, suburban or rural zones by state), and 22,611 links in Nevada. In addition, the analysis modeled the behavior of 41 isotopes, 1091 source terms, and used 8850 food transfer factors (distinct factors by isotope for each state). The analysis also used mode-specific accident rates for legal weight truck, rail, and heavy haul truck by state, and barge by waterway. This complex mix of data and information required an innovative approach to assess the transportation impacts. The approach employed a Microsoft(reg s ign) Access database tool that incorporated data from many sources, including unit risk factors calculated using the RADTRAN IV transportation risk assessment computer program. Using Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the analysts organized data (such as state-specific accident and fatality rates) into tables and developed queries to obtain the overall transportation impacts. Queries are instructions to the database describing how to use data contained in the database tables. While a query might be applied to thousands of table entries, there is only one sequence of queries that is used to calculate a particular transportation impact. For example, the incident-free dose to off-link populations in a state is calculated by a query that uses route segment lengths for each route in a state that could be used by shipments, populations for each segment, number of shipments on each segment, and an incident-free unit risk factor calculated using RADTRAN IV. In addition to providing a method for using large volumes of data in the calculations, the

  3. Comparative assessment of spent nuclear fuel transportation routes using risk factors and a geographic information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, D.M.

    1996-01-01

    The assessment of potential alternative routes was simplified through the use of six comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed, route-specific data. The route and environmental attributes varied strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The six comparative factors were risk measures of incident-free transportation radiation exposure, radiological accident population exposure, nonradiological accidents, contamination of environmental sensitive areas, environmental justice for minority populations, and environmental justice for low-income populations. An assessment of four real North-Central Florida routes provided a sample implementation of the analysis tools and risk factors. The assessment routes, consisting of common beginning and end locations, included an interstate highway, a rural highway, a mostly urban highway, and a combination interstate highway with rural bypass. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume, and the lowest percentages of minority and low-income populations, displayed the highest cumulative risk measure. Factors contributing to the high risk for the rural highway route included greater route length, higher vehicular fatality accident rates per vehicle mile traveled, and the close proximity to environmentally sensitive areas. This route comparative assessment study predicted that the interstate highway, despite a higher population density, greater traffic volume, and greater number of vehicular fatality accidents, would present the lowest cumulative risk. On the contrary, the rural highway route, characterized as having the lowest population density, minimal vehicle traffic volume

  4. Perception of risks in transporting radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, E.W.; Reese, R.T.

    1983-01-01

    A framework for relating the variables involved in the public perception of hazardous materials transportation is presented in which perceived risk was described in six basic terms: technical feasibility, political palatability, social responsibility, benefit assessment, media interpretation, and familiarity as a function of time. Scientists, the media and public officials contribute to the discussion of risks but ultimately people will decide for themselves how they feel and what they think. It is not sufficient to consider the public of not being enlightened enough to participate in the formulation of radioactive material transport policy. The framework provides the technologist with an initial formulation to better inform the public and to understand public perception

  5. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  6. The risk assesment in storage and transportation of dangerous substances - preoccupations and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, Roxana Elena; Dumitrescu, Maria; Stefanescu, Ioan

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a risk assessment model for dangerous substance storage and transportation. It will combine also qualitative and quantitative evaluation methods, the results being referred to the lethal risk at individual and social level. The model includes the main tasks to classify the risks and to achieve a scale of priorities. To achieve a proper analysis of a regional risk the following steps should be observed: a list of dangerous substances; the classification of storage and transportation activities in the area; the selection of those activities that can be included in the study; establishing the category of effects ; the estimation of consequences to the environment and people; the calculation of major accidents frequency; the risk level classification. Generally, in the global risk assessment in industrial sector one neglects the risk induced by the transport of dangerous substances. Because of that the decision process in the risk management field can be seriously affected and the initiatives to reduce the risk and to decrease the consequences of potential accidents can be reduced, too. The model will be applied to evaluate the risk due major accidents occurring in the storage of dangerous substances and their transportation on roads, railway or by pipes. It represents a prime action plan at national level to evaluate and analyze the transportation risk. (authors)

  7. Risk analysis methodologies for the transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.

    1983-05-01

    Different methodologies have evolved for consideration of each of the many steps required in performing a transportation risk analysis. Although there are techniques that attempt to consider the entire scope of the analysis in depth, most applications of risk assessment to the transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials develop specific methodologies for only one or two parts of the analysis. The remaining steps are simplified for the analyst by narrowing the scope of the effort (such as evaluating risks for only one material, or a particular set of accident scenarios, or movement over a specific route); performing a qualitative rather than a quantitative analysis (probabilities may be simply ranked as high, medium or low, for instance); or assuming some generic, conservative conditions for potential release fractions and consequences. This paper presents a discussion of the history and present state-of-the-art of transportation risk analysis methodologies. Many reports in this area were reviewed as background for this presentation. The literature review, while not exhaustive, did result in a complete representation of the major methods used today in transportation risk analysis. These methodologies primarily include the use of severity categories based on historical accident data, the analysis of specifically assumed accident sequences for the transportation activity of interest, and the use of fault or event tree analysis. Although the focus of this work has generally been on potential impacts to public groups, some effort has been expended in the estimation of risks to occupational groups in transportation activities

  8. Colloid-Facilitated Radionuclide Transport: Current State of Knowledge from a Nuclear Waste Repository Risk Assessment Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimus, Paul William; Zavarin, Mavrik; Wang, Yifeng

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of colloid-facilitated radionuclide transport from a nuclear waste repository risk assessment perspective. It draws on work that has been conducted over the past 3 decades, although there is considerable emphasis given to work that has been performed over the past 3-5 years as part of the DOE Used Fuel Disposition Campaign. The timing of this report coincides with the completion of a 3-year DOE membership in the Colloids Formation and Migration (CFM) partnership, an international collaboration of scientists studying colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides at both the laboratory and field-scales in a fractured crystalline granodiorite at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. This Underground Research Laboratory has hosted the most extensive and carefully-controlled set of colloid-facilitated solute transport experiments that have ever been conducted in an in-situ setting, and a summary of the results to date from these efforts, as they relate to transport over long time and distance scales, is provided in Chapter 3 of this report.

  9. Colloid-Facilitated Radionuclide Transport: Current State of Knowledge from a Nuclear Waste Repository Risk Assessment Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reimus, Paul William [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Zavarin, Mavrik [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Wang, Yifeng [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-25

    This report provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of colloid-facilitated radionuclide transport from a nuclear waste repository risk assessment perspective. It draws on work that has been conducted over the past 3 decades, although there is considerable emphasis given to work that has been performed over the past 3-5 years as part of the DOE Used Fuel Disposition Campaign. The timing of this report coincides with the completion of a 3-year DOE membership in the Colloids Formation and Migration (CFM) partnership, an international collaboration of scientists studying colloid-facilitated transport of radionuclides at both the laboratory and field-scales in a fractured crystalline granodiorite at the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. This Underground Research Laboratory has hosted the most extensive and carefully-controlled set of colloid-facilitated solute transport experiments that have ever been conducted in an in-situ setting, and a summary of the results to date from these efforts, as they relate to transport over long time and distance scales, is provided in Chapter 3 of this report.

  10. Radiological transportation risk assessment of the shipment of sodium-bonded fuel from the Fast Flux Test Facility to the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document was written in support of Environmental Assessment: Shutdown of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Hanford Site, Richland, Washington. It analyzes the potential radiological risks associated with the transportation of sodium-bonded metal alloy and mixed carbide fuel from the FFTF on the Hanford Site in Washington State to the Idaho Engineering Laboratory in Idaho in the T-3 Cask. RADTRAN 4 is used for the analysis which addresses potential risk from normal transportation and hypothetical accident scenarios

  11. Radiological transportation risk assessment of the shipment of sodium-bonded fuel from the Fast Flux Test Facility to the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, J.R.

    1995-01-31

    This document was written in support of Environmental Assessment: Shutdown of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Hanford Site, Richland, Washington. It analyzes the potential radiological risks associated with the transportation of sodium-bonded metal alloy and mixed carbide fuel from the FFTF on the Hanford Site in Washington State to the Idaho Engineering Laboratory in Idaho in the T-3 Cask. RADTRAN 4 is used for the analysis which addresses potential risk from normal transportation and hypothetical accident scenarios.

  12. Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

    2016-05-01

    Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Safety assessment for the transportation of NECSA's LILW to the Vaalputs waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maphoto, K.P.; Raubenheimer, E.; Swart, H.

    2008-01-01

    The transport safety assessment was carried out with a view to assess the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the radioactive materials. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with the envisaged transport scenarios for the road transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of LILW along the R563 route, N14 and eventually to the Vaalputs National Waste Disposal Facility. Various parameters are needed by the RADTRAN code in calculating the human health impact and risk. These include: numbers of population densities following the routes undertaken, number of stops made, and the speed at which the transport will be traversing at towards the final destination. The human health impact with regard to the dose to the public, LCF and risk associated with transportation of Necsa's LILW to the Vaalputs Waste Disposal Facility by road have been calculated using RADTRAN 5 code. The results for both accident and incident free scenarios have shown that the overall risks are insignificant and can be associated with any non-radiological transportation. (authors)

  14. Transport accident frequency data, their sources and their application in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.

    1988-08-01

    Base transport accident frequency data and sources of these data are presented. Both generic information and rates specific to particular routes or packages are included. Strong packages, such as those containing significant quantities of radioactive materials, will survive most of the accidents represented by these base frequencies without a containment breach. The association of severity probability distributions with a base frequency, and package and contents response, leading to the quantification of release frequency and magnitude, are often more important in risk assessment than the base frequency itself. This paper therefore also includes brief comments on techniques adopted to utilize the base frequencies. This paper reports an accident frequency data survey undertaken at the end of 1986. It has not been updated to take account of work published between January 1987 and the Report publication date. (author)

  15. A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Ehlers, Sören; Goerlandt, Floris; Hinz, Tomasz; Tabri, Kristjan; Kujala, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found. - Highlights: • A framework for risk analysis and assessment in maritime transportation systems following the formal requirements adopted is presented here. • A Bayesian Belief Network is used, allowing instantaneous propagation of knowledge through the framework. • The uncertainties of the input variables are quantified. • A contribution to a holistic risk model for a selected maritime activity is made. • A set of analytical methods is used to estimate risk

  16. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving Type A packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; S. Hughes, J.; B. Shaw, K.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Heinen, J.F.A. van; Jansma, R.

    2001-01-01

    An assessment and evaluation of the potential radiological risks of transport accidents involving Type A package shipments by road have been performed by five EU Member States, France, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands, and the UK. The analysis involved collection and analysis of information on a national basis related to the type, volume, and characteristics of Type A package consignments, the associated radioactive traffic, and the expected frequency and consequences of potential vehicular road transport accidents. It was found that the majority of Type A packaged radioactive material shipments by road is related to applications of non-special form radioactive material, i.e. radiopharmaceuticals, radiochemicals etc., in medicine, research, and industry and special form material contained in radiography and other radiation sources, e.g. gauging equipment. The annual volumes of Type A package shipments of radiopharmaceuticals and radiochemicals by road differ considerably between the participating EU Member States from about 12,000 Type A packages in Sweden to about 240,000 in the Netherlands. The broad range reflects to a large extent the supply of radioactive material for the national populations and the production and distribution operations prevailing in the participating EU Member States (some are producer countries, others are not!). Very few standard package designs weighing from about 1-25 kg are predominant in Type A package shipments in all participating countries. Type A packages contain typically a range of radioactivity from a few mega becquerels to a few tens of giga becquerels, the average package activity contents is in terms of fractions of A 2 about 0.01, i.e. about one hundredth of a Type A package contents limits. Based on a probabilistic risk assessment method it has been concluded that the expected frequencies of occurrence of vehicular road transport accidents with the potential to result in an environmental release - including radiologically

  17. Transport of radioactive wastes to the planned final waste repository Konrad: Radiation exposure resulting from normal transport and radiological risks from transport accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Gruendler, D.; Schwarz, G.

    1993-01-01

    Radiation exposures of members of critical groups of the general population and of transport personnel resulting from normal transport of radioactive wastes to the planned final waste repository Konrad have been evaluated in detail. By applying probabilistic safety assessment techniques radiological risks from transport accidents have been analysed by quantifying potential radiation exposures and contaminations of the biosphere in connection with their expected frequencies of occurrence. The Konrad transport study concentrates on the local region of the waste repository, where all transports converge. (orig.) [de

  18. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R.

    1991-01-01

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history

  19. A model for radiological risk assessment from transportation of radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancioppi, S.; Piermattei, S.

    1985-01-01

    The transport of radioactive materials is an important step in every practice involving the use of nuclear energy. The record of safety until now attained is undoubtedly satisfactory; however being large quantities of radioactive substances transported every day throughout the world, it was deemed worthwhile to evaluate the radiological impact connected with the transport of radioactive materials. The International Atomic Energy Agency, as the Agency issuing the Regulations applied by almost all the national and international transport organizations, sponsored a study aimed to develop a model for the evaluation of the risk connected with the transport activity. A code INTERTRAN (International Transport) has been developed by a Swedish research group (1) and is mainly based on a code (Radtran) developed at Sandia Labs. Other research groups like US and Italy offered their cooperation in the preparation of the code. It appears that the collective dose equivalents involved in the shipments of all wastes to their hypothetical final destination are rather low (40 person-rem in the worst case) and do not depend strongly from the transport mode. Handlers and crew are the most exposed group as it was expected, while the dose contribution to the general public is negligible. The situation could change in case of accident as accident dynamic and accident rate strongly depend on the mode of transport; it might happen that in this case one transport mode could be preferred to another. It is therefore deemed very important to deserve great attention to accident analysis, taking into account also the fact that there exists a category of flammable waste. Our future studies are oriented in this direction

  20. Risk from transportation and handling of butane; Etude de cas: jusqu`ou quantifier les risques lies aux facteurs humains ? Application au transport routier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, B.; Celier, J.

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents the results and recommendations derived from a detailed assessment of a butane supply and butane transportation system. Based on a hazard and operability (HAZOP) study performed earlier, the need to undertake a more detailed assessment of the risks associated with the handling and transport of butane for the maleic anhydride (MAN) unit at a site was identified in order to ensure that all reasonable risk mitigation actions had been evaluated. Therefore, PLG initiated this study to quantify the likelihood and consequences of butane releases. The scope of the risk assessment includes all operations and activities with the handling and transport of butane, including: loading of butane trucks at the butane loading terminal; transport of butane by tank truck from the loading terminal to the plant site; unloading of the butane into the MAN unit storage sphere. Risks were quantified in terms of the likelihood of butane releases that could leas to a fire (pool or vapor cloud), an unconfined vapor cloud explosion (UVCE), or a boiling expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), and the consequences of such releases in terms of the potential impact on both plant workers and the general public who live or work near the butane loading terminal, the transport route, or the plant site. (author)

  1. Inter-compartmental transport of organophosphate and pyrethroid pesticides in South China: implications for a regional risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huizhen; Wei, Yanli; Lydy, Michael J; You, Jing

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic flux of an organophosphate and four pyrethroid pesticides was determined in an air-(soil)-water-sediment system based on monitoring data from Guangzhou, China. The total air-water flux, including air-water gaseous exchange and atmospheric deposition, showed deposition from air to water for chlorpyrifos, bifenthrin and cypermethrin, but volatilization for lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin. The transport of the pesticides from overlying water to sediment suggested that sediment acted as a sink for the pesticides. Additionally, distinct annual atmospheric depositional fluxes between legacy and current-use pesticides suggested the role of consumer usage in their transport throughout the system. Finally, pesticide toxicity was estimated from annual air-water-sediment flux within an urban stream in Guangzhou. A dynamic flux-based risk assessment indicated that inter-compartmental transport of chlorpyrifos decreased its atmospheric exposure, but had little influence on its aquatic toxicity. Instead, water-to-sediment transport of pyrethroids increased their sediment toxicity, which was supported by previously reported toxicity data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  3. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  4. Depleted uranium risk assessment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebinger, M.H.; Myers, O.B.; Kennedy, P.L.; Clements, W.H.

    1993-01-01

    The Environmental Science Group at Los Alamos and the Test and Evaluation Command (TECOM) are assessing the risk of depleted uranium (DU) testing at Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG). Conceptual and mathematical models of DU transfer through the APG ecosystem have been developed in order to show the mechanisms by which DU migrates or remains unavailable to different flora and fauna and to humans. The models incorporate actual rates of DU transfer between different ecosystem components as much as possible. Availability of data on DU transport through different pathways is scarce and constrains some of the transfer rates that can be used. Estimates of transfer rates were derived from literature sources and used in the mass-transfer models when actual transfer rates were unavailable. Objectives for this risk assessment are (1) to assess if DU transports away from impact areas; (2) to estimate how much, if any, DU migrates into Chesapeake Bay; (3) to determine if there are appreciable risks to the ecosystems due to DU testing; (4) to estimate the risk to human health as a result of DU testing

  5. PRESTO low-level waste transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Fields, D.E.; McDowell-Boyer, L.M.; Emerson, C.J.

    1981-01-01

    PRESTO (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code developed under US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding to evaluate possible health effects from shallow land burial trenches. The model is intended to be generic and to assess radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impact to a static local population for a 1000-y period following the end of burial operations. Human exposure scenarios considered by the model include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population inlude: groundwater transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, resuspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses are calculated as well as doses to the intruder and farmer. Cumulative health effects in terms of deaths from cancer are calculated for the population over the thousand-year period using a life-table approach. Data bases are being developed for three extant shallow land burial sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York

  6. Risk Evaluation of Railway Coal Transportation Network Based on Multi Level Grey Evaluation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Wei; Wang, Xifu

    2018-01-01

    The railway transport mode is currently the most important way of coal transportation, and now China’s railway coal transportation network has become increasingly perfect, but there is still insufficient capacity, some lines close to saturation and other issues. In this paper, the theory and method of risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process and multi-level gray evaluation model are applied to the risk evaluation of coal railway transportation network in China. Based on the example analysis of Shanxi railway coal transportation network, to improve the internal structure and the competitiveness of the market.

  7. Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment for the US Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement -- human health endpoints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, H.M.; Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.

    1994-01-01

    In this presentation, a quantitative methodology for assessing the risk associated with the transportation of hazardous waste (HW) is proposed. The focus is on identifying air concentrations of HW that correspond to specific human health endpoints

  8. NATO/CCMS pilot project: Risk assessment for accidental pollution related to the maritime transport of harmful substances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melguen, M.

    1992-01-01

    The NATO/CCMS Workshop on open-quotes Risk Assessment for Accidental Pollution Related to the Maritime Transport of Harmful Substancesclose quotes which took place at CEDRE in 1991 was a follow-up to the workshops which took place in 1987 and 1989. It was the direct continuation of work accomplished during the first two seminars and covered the following topics: Improvement and Intercomparison of Models: elaboration of the list of indispensable parameters for modeling slick movements analysis and integration of the physico-chemical processes studied at sea. Model Validation: release of bulk chemicals drift of drums and containers of toxic substances. Risk Assessment for Man and the Environment: development and adaptation of Help-in-Decision-Making System (ex: CAMEO, MORGANE, etc.) means for rapid, on-site detection (including the advanced Canadian know how in this domains). Intervention Ways and Means: experience of a rescue company; research for elements for Help-in-Decision-Making regarding the location and eventual recovery of drums and containers lost at sea

  9. Alternative risk-based criteria for transportation of radioactive materials on the United States Department of Energy Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercado, J.E.; Field, J.G.; Smith, R.J.; Wang, O.S.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents the development of an alternative method to evaluate packaging safety for radioactive material transported solely within the boundaries of a restricted site; the method uses risk-based criteria to assess and document packaging safety. These criteria offer a standard against which the results of a risk assessment are compared to evaluate the safety of a transportation operation. Numerous payloads are transported entirely within the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site boundaries. The U.S. Department of Energy requires that the safety of onsite transportation be equivalent to the safety provided for transporting radioactive materials in commerce as regulated by the U.S. Department of Transportation and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Some onsite packaging configurations do not meet the performance criteria that form the basis of these regulations, necessitating the establishment of alternative criteria to evaluate safety. Quantitatively defined criteria have been derived from the U.S. Department of Transportation limits for package radiation levels, curie content, activity release, and external contamination levels. Recommendations of the International Committee on Radiation Protection may further restrict the criteria. The proposed method documents packaging safety in a transportation risk assessment. The assessment estimates accident frequencies, conservatively evaluates the dose consequences of these accidents, and compares the results to the established risk acceptance criteria. Specific Hanford Site onsite packaging and transportation issues illustrate the alternative method. The paper compares the solutions resulting from the application of risk-based criteria to those resulting from strict compliance with commercial transportation regulations. (author)

  10. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

  11. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-01-01

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

  12. Methods and results of a probabilistic risk assessment for radioactive waste transports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Gruendler, D.; Schwarz, G.

    1993-01-01

    The radiological risk from accidents has been analyzed for the expected annual transport volume (3400 shipping units) of low and partially intermediate level radioactive wastes to be shipped to a final repository. In order to take account of these variable quantities and conditions a computer code was developed to simulate a wide spectrum of waste transport and accident configurations using Monte Carlo sampling techniques. Typically some 10.000 source terms were generated to represent possible releases of radionuclides from transport accidents. Accident events in which the integrity of waste packagings is retained and consequently no releases occur are included. Potential radiological consequences are then calculated for each of the release categories by using an accident consequence code which takes into account atmospheric dispersion statistics. Finally cumulative complementary frequency distributions of radiological consequences are generated by superposing the results for all release categories. Radiological consequences are primarily expressed as potential effective individual doses resulting from airborne and deposited radionuclides. The results of the risk analysis show that expected frequencies of effective doses comparable to the natural radiation exposure of one year are quite low and very low for potential radiation exposures in the range of 50 mSv. (J.P.N.)

  13. Personality and risk perception in transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyhri, Aslak; Backer-Grøndahl, Agathe

    2012-11-01

    Within research on individual variations in risk perception, personality has been suggested as one important factor. In the present study, personality traits (44 items from the Big Five inventory) were investigated in relation to risk perception in transport and transport behavioural adaptations. In a sample of 312 participants, we found that the personality trait 'emotional stability versus neuroticism' was negatively correlated with risk perception (operationalised as "thinking about the possibility") of an accident (-0.38) and an unpleasant incident, such as crime, violence, robbery (-0.25). 'Agreeableness' was also negatively related to risk perception, however first and foremost in relation to perceived risk for unpleasant incidents on transport modes in which one interacts with other people (0.25). Moreover, regression analyses showed that 'emotional stability' was a significant predictor of behavioural adaptations on bus. Regression analyses explained between 17 and 26 percent of variance in behavioural adaptations. The results show that different groups of people vary systematically in their perception of risk in transport. Furthermore, these differences are manifest as a difference in risk-preventive behaviour at a strategic level, i.e. as decisions about avoiding risky situations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Safety assessment for the transportation of NECSA's LILW to the Vaalputs waste disposal facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maphoto, K.P.; Raubenheimer, E.; Swart, H. [Nuclear Liabilities Management, NECSA, P O Box 582, Pretoria, 0001 (South Africa)

    2008-07-01

    The transport safety assessment was carried out with a view to assess the impact on the environment and the people living in it, from exposure to radioactivity during transportation of the radioactive materials. It provides estimates of radiological risks associated with the envisaged transport scenarios for the road transport mode. This is done by calculating the human health impact and radiological risk from transportation of LILW along the R563 route, N14 and eventually to the Vaalputs National Waste Disposal Facility. Various parameters are needed by the RADTRAN code in calculating the human health impact and risk. These include: numbers of population densities following the routes undertaken, number of stops made, and the speed at which the transport will be traversing at towards the final destination. The human health impact with regard to the dose to the public, LCF and risk associated with transportation of Necsa's LILW to the Vaalputs Waste Disposal Facility by road have been calculated using RADTRAN 5 code. The results for both accident and incident free scenarios have shown that the overall risks are insignificant and can be associated with any non-radiological transportation. (authors)

  15. The potential importance of water pathways for spent fuel transportation accident risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostmeyer, R.M.

    1986-01-01

    This paper analyzes the potential importance of water pathway contamination for spent fuel transportation accident risk using a ''worst-case'' water contamination scenario. The scenario used for the analysis involves an accident release that occurs near a reservoir. Water pathway doses are compared to doses for accident releases in urban or agricultural areas. The results of the analysis indicate that water pathways are not important for assessing the risk of transporting spent reactor fuel by truck or by rail

  16. Road Safety Risk Assessment: An Analysis of Transport Policy and Management for Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syyed Adnan Raheel Shah

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Road safety assessment has played a crucial role in the theory and practice of transport management systems. This paper focuses on risk evaluation in the Asian region by exploring the interaction between road safety risk and influencing factors. In the first stage, a data envelopment analysis (DEA method is applied to calculate and rank the road safety risk levels of Asian countries. In the second stage, a structural equation model (SEM with latent variables is applied to analyze the interaction between the road safety risk level and the latent variables, measured by six observed performance indicators, i.e., financial impact, institutional framework, infrastructure and mobility, legislation and policy, vehicular road users, and trauma management. Finally, this paper illustrates the applicability of this DEA-SEM approach for road safety performance analysis.

  17. Radioactive Waste Transport: Managing Risk Perception and Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, Ch.

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of a national transportation system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste that merits public trust and confidence will require the delivery of consistent, accurate and timely transportation messages; stakeholder and public understanding of the need for, and safety of, shipments; and effective two-way communication to address stakeholder concerns in its decision-making processes. Building the trust and consent of stakeholders and the public is complex and challenging. In order to accomplish this goal, it is imperative to understand how and why members of society develop various perceptions of risks and assessments of benefits with regard to the nuclear energy cycle. Understanding the basis and reasons for the public's beliefs concerning the nuclear energy cycle will allow OCRWM to more effectively address concerns regarding the national transportation program. This paper will examine how a person's gender, sources of information, world-view, culture, emotion, cognition, and other factors affect their beliefs and perceptions of risk. It will also explore the reasons why nuclear energy and nuclear waste are viewed with such a distinctly different attitude than other hazardous materials that pose a comparable or greater hazard. Drawing on research from prominent experts in risk perception and communication methods, this study will conduct a unique investigation into the perspectives of a diverse set of key stakeholders and experts involved in the transportation process. This paper will present several hypotheses on why there are unique challenges involved in communicating about transportation of spent nuclear fuel and other nuclear fuel cycle activities, and also present recommendations for remediating such challenges. (authors)

  18. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  19. Transportation risks in the US nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhoads, R.E.; Andrews, W.B.

    1980-01-01

    Estimated risks associated with accidental releases of materials transported for each step of the nuclear fuel cycle are presented. The risk estimates include both immediate and latent fatilities caused by releases of these materials in transportation accidents. Studies of the risk of transporting yellowcake, fresh nuclear and low level wastes from the front end of the fuel cycle have not been completed. Existing information does permit estimates of the risks to be made. The estimates presented result from the very low hazards associated with release of these materials. These estimates are consistent with the results of other studies. The results show that risks from all the fuel cycle transportation steps are low. The results also indicate that the total transportation risks associated with the nuclear fuel cycle are distributed about evenly between the fuel supply end and waste management end of the cycle. Risks in the front end of the cycle result primarily from the chemical toxicity of the materials transported. The results of the risk analysis studies for transportation of nuclear fuel cycle materials are compared with the results for the three studies that have been completed for non-nuclear systems. The risk analysis methodology used in these studies identifies the complete spectrum of potential accident consequences and estimates the probability of events producing that level of consequence. The maximum number of fatalities predicted for each material is presented. A variety of risk measures have been used because of the inherent difficulties in making risk comparisons. Examination of a number of risk measures can provide additional insights and help guard against conclusions that are dependent on the way the risk information has been developed and displayed. The results indicate that the risks from transporting these materials are all relatively low in comparison to other risks in society

  20. Radiological Risk Assessment and Cask Materials Qualification for Disposed Sealed Radioactive Sources Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.A.; Olteanu, G.; Bujoreanu, D.

    2009-01-01

    The hazardous waste problem imposes to respect national and international agreed regulations regarding their transport, taking into account both for maintaining humans, goods and environment exposure under specified limits, during transport and specific additional operations, and also to reduce impact on the environment. The paper follows to estimate the radiological risk and cask materials qualification according to the design specifications for disposed sealed radioactive sources normal transport situation. The shielding analysis has been performed by using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's SCALE 5 programs package. For thermal analysis and cask materials qualification ANSYS computer code has been used. Results have been obtained under the framework of Advanced system for monitoring of hazardous waste transport on the Romanian territory Research Project which main objective consists in implementation of a complex dual system for on-line monitoring both for transport special vehicle and hazardous waste packages, with data automatic transmission to a national monitoring center

  1. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: the CBA-DK model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2008-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to present a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model makes use of conventional cost-benefit analysis resulting in aggregated single point estimates and quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation...... resulting in interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The methodological approach has been to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting...... in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework...

  2. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  3. TePiTri : a screening method for assessing terrorist-related pipeline transport risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2012-01-01

    The article proposes an approach to determine relative terrorist-related security risk levels of pipeline transportation. Pipeline routes are divided into smaller route segments. Subsequently, likelihood scores of possible terrorist-related incidents are determined per route segment and per

  4. Nuclear terrorism risk analysis using game theory. Case study of sea transportation of MOX fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakatani, Eri; Tanaka, Satoru; Choi, Jor-Shan

    2010-01-01

    While considerable attention and resources have been directed towards improving nuclear security in Japan in response to the threat of nuclear terrorism, the transport of nuclear material raises concern by the public as indicated in the recent return of MOX fuel from Europe. This concern cannot be adequately addressed by the government through communications with the public because of the confidential nature of such transport. Also, it remains a challenge for adequately assessing the nuclear terrorism risk because many key parameters associated with such assessment cannot be derived from statistical data and reflect actors' intentions unlike assessment on natural disasters. This study proposes an assessment methodology which introduces game theory to deduce the correlations between those key parameters and can be used to analyze the nuclear terrorism risk, both quantitatively and qualitatively for the civilian use of nuclear power. Risk will be calculated by Monte Carlo methods based on probability distributions set for actors' utilities. A case-study of transporting the MOX fuel by sea is also included. (author)

  5. Study of Cardiovascular Risk Factors Among Transport Drivers In Rural Area Of Andhra Pradesh

    OpenAIRE

    Sharvanan Eshwaran Udayar, Rajesh Kumar K, Praveen Kumar BA, Sivachandiran Vairamuthu, Srinivas Thatuku

    2015-01-01

    "Background: Non-communicable diseases are the leading causes of death globally and recent studies had demonstrated that transport drivers are at greater risk of developing cardiovascular diseases due to an incorrect diet, sedentary behavior, unhealthy lifestyles and obesity. Objective: To characterize transport drivers working in shifts through the assessment of clinical and demographic variables and the presence of some cardiovascular risk factors. Materials and methods: Cross s...

  6. Offsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the offsite transportation of hazardous material from the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 151.1. Offsite transportation accidents are categorized using the DOE system to assist communication within the DOE and assure that appropriate assistance is provided to the people in charge at the scene. The assistance will initially include information about the load and the potential hazards. Local authorities will use the information to protect the public following a transportation accident. This Hazards Assessment will focus on the material being transported from the Hanford Site. Shipments coming to Hanford are the responsibility of the shipper and the carrier and, therefore, are not included in this Hazards Assessment, unless the DOE elects to be the shipper of record

  7. Assurance of risk assessment and protection distant transportation and fall out of pollutants under large anthropogenic on nuclear power stations due to mountainous regional peculiarities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsitskishvili, M.; Tsitskishvili, N.; Kordzakhia, G.; Valiaev, A.; Kazakov, S.; Aitmatov, I.; Petrov, V.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: All types of industrial activities require the norms of protection, assessment of corresponding risks to preserve the pollution and degradation of corresponding areas. To make available the sustainable development of the country the risk assessment of possible accidents on the big enterprises is foreseen that provides preparedness of the country and possibility of the prevention measures and mitigation of the accidents. While big anthropogenic accidents in mountainous countries - the main paths for transportation of the pollution are the rivers and sea basins. Due to overpopulation of these areas assessment of the pollution risks are very important. Problem of forecast and distant atmospheric transportation of the toxic products and corresponding risk assessment under anthropogenic damages is multi-component and depends on meteorological conditions and frontier layer of atmosphere. Generally, for real relief and basic fields the problem is not solved yet especially taking into consideration the big level and shortest time of the process being of the natural anthropogenic accidents in mountainous regions. Usually, geostropic drawing for determined relief is used. Integral differential equations taking into consideration a physical- chemical characteristic of the pollutants, their transformations, fall out, coagulations, washing out and self rectification in general cannot be solved. In last time essential success in formalization of above-mentioned equations i.e. carrying out some simplifications give possibility to establish necessary modeling on the basis of numerical calculations. In the most general case forecasting model is essentially limited because of bulky size of accounting schemes and necessity of powerful and high-speed computers. Main ways of achievement of further success is connected with so called 'seasonal typification' with applied a priory calculation of probabilistic picture of the pollutants concentration fields, as well as

  8. Weather hazards and vulnerabilities for the European transport system - a risk panorama. EWENT project D5.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Molarius, R.; Leviakangas, P.; Ronty, J.; Oiva, K. (eds.)

    2012-09-15

    This deliverable of EWENT project estimates the risks of extreme weather on European transport system. The main object of work package 5 in EWENT project was to perform a risk analysis based on impact and probability assessments carried out in earlier work packages (WP2-WP3). The results of WP 5 can be used as a starting point when deciding on the risk reduction measures, strategies and policies in the European Union. This deliverable also serves as a background material for the synthesis report (named shortly as Risk Panorama), which will summarise the findings of risk assessment and previous work packages. The methodological approach of EWENT is based on the generic risk management standard (IEC 60300-3-9) and starts with the identification of hazardous extreme weather phenomena, followed by an impact assessment and concluded by mitigation and risk control measures. This report pools the information from EWENT's earlier work packages, such as risk identification and estimation, into a 'risk panorama' and provides a holistic picture on the risks of extreme weather in different parts of Europe and EU transport network. The risk assessment is based on the definition of transport systems' vulnerability to extreme weather events in different countries and on calculations of the most probable causal chains, starting from adverse weather phenomena and ending up with events that pose harmful consequences to the transport systems in different climate regions. The latter part, the probabilistic section, is the hazard analysis. The vulnerability of a particular mode in a particular country is a function of exposure (indicated by transport or freight volumes and population density), susceptibility (infrastructure quality index, indicating overall resilience) and coping capacity (measured by GDP per capita). Hence, we define the extreme weather risk as Risk = hazard times vulnerability = P(negative consequences) times V[f(exposure, susceptibility, coping

  9. Ecological risk assessment of depleted uranium in the environment at Aberdeen Proving Ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clements, W.H.; Kennedy, P.L.; Myers, O.B.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary ecological risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of depleted uranium (DU) in the Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) ecosystem and its potential for human health effects. An ecological risk assessment of DU should include the processes of hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Ecological risk assessments also should explicitly examine risks incurred by nonhuman as well as human populations, because risk assessments based only on human health do not always protect other species. To begin to assess the potential ecological risk of DU release to the environment we modeled DU transport through the principal components of the aquatic ecosystem at APG. We focused on the APG aquatic system because of the close proximity of the Chesapeake Bay and concerns about potential impacts on this ecosystem. Our objective in using a model to estimate environmental fate of DU is to ultimately reduce the uncertainty about predicted ecological risks due to DU from APG. The model functions to summarize information on the structure and functional properties of the APG aquatic system, to provide an exposure assessment by estimating the fate of DU in the environment, and to evaluate the sources of uncertainty about DU transport

  10. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  11. The RADTRAN 4 computational system for transportation risk assessment: A prototype for the information superhighway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.

    1994-01-01

    The RADTRAN 4 computer code for transportation risk assessment is the central code in a system that contains both other codes and data libraries. Some of these codes and data libraries supply input data for RADTRAN; others perform supplemental calculations. RADTRAN 4 will be released by the IAEA in an international version known as INTERTRAN 2 in 1995. In the United States, RADTRAN 4 and its supporting system may be accessed via the INTERNET, a precursor to the Information Superhighway. Similar networks are being contemplated elsewhere in the world, and the RADTRAN System may serve as a prototype for systems on these networks. A system is desirable for the following reasons. Some classes of data and data-handling methods are country-specific and some are not -- ancillary codes and data libraries that provide the latter are not affected by national and regional borders while the former must be provided on a country-by-country basis. Making the invariant portions available to all users in an international system would simplify quality assurance (QA) and, therefore, the reliability and consistency of risk results. Among the classes of data used in RADTRAN 4 (and INTERTRAN 2) and the supplemental calculational capabilities that are essentially invariant for all countries and regions are: (1) radionuclide characteristics such as half-life, photon energy, and dose-conversion factors; (2) characteristics of radioactive-material packages found in international commerce; (3) features of highly standardized international transportation modes (primarily sea and air); and (4) uncertainty analysis. These features and their related QA benefits are discussed

  12. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  13. Quantification of risks at the transport of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

    1992-07-01

    Requirement of the risks which are coherent with the transport of hazardous elements are for the time being drawn up in a joint project by the Netherlands Ministries of SZW and VROM. In this project 'Requirements of risk for the transport of hazardous elements' (RNVGS) the transport of radioactive elements is not considered. To reach requirements for such a transport, the Directorate of Elements, Safety and Radiation of VROM has provided an assignment to ECN to make a quantitative analysis on the risks of transport of radioactive elements on the road. At the same time, they requested to examine in this performance study whether there are needed additional criteria specific for transport, along the criteria used for individual risk and group-risks. 55 refs., 1 fig., 16 refs

  14. Triggered lightning risk assessment for reusable launch vehicles at four regional spaceports

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-30

    The Aerospace Corporation was tasked by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center to provide technical support to the Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Commercial Space Transportation, in assessing the risks involved with triggered li...

  15. Romanian experience in a assessment of the risk and environmental consequences due to radioactive materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieru, Gheorghe

    2006-01-01

    Full text: The transport of radioactive materials (RAM) is a very important problem taking into consideration its potential risks over the environment and the radiological consequences of this activity. Romania as a Member State of the International Atomic Energy Agency has implemented national regulations for a safe transport of RAM in complying with the Agency's recommendations as well as other international specialized organizations. The paper will present the main sources of radioactive materials in Romania, and their transportation routes with a particular focus on the radioactive wastes (very low level and mixed low-level radioactive materials), radioactive isotopes and sources, and natural uranium ore. Starting from the fact that the safety in the transport of radioactive materials is dependent on packaging appropriate for the contents being shipped, rather than operational and/or administrative actions required for the package, the paper presents, very briefly, the qualification tests for the main packages used for transport and storage of RAM in Romania. There are presented also specific problems related to the identification and evaluation of the environmental risks and impacts as well as the potential radiological consequences associated with the transport of radioactive materials, for all those three possible situations: routine transport (without incidents), normal transport (with minor incidents) and during potential accidents. As a conclusion, it is stated that the evaluated annual collective dose for the population due to RAM transport is less than those received by natural radiation sources. At the same time it is concluded that Romanian made packages are safe and prevent loss of its radioactive contents into environment. (author)

  16. Canadian hydrocarbon transportation system : transportation assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    This document provided an assessment of the Canadian hydrocarbon transportation system. In addition to regulating the construction and operation of Canada's 45,000 km of pipeline that cross international and provincial borders, Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) regulates the trade of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. The ability of pipelines to delivery this energy is critical to the country's economic prosperity. The pipeline system includes large-diameter, cross-country, high-pressure natural gas pipelines, low-pressure crude oil and oil products pipelines and small-diameter pipelines. In order to assess the hydrocarbon transportation system, staff at the NEB collected data from pipeline companies and a range of publicly available sources. The Board also held discussions with members of the investment community regarding capital markets and emerging issues. The assessment focused largely on evaluating whether Canadians benefit from an efficient energy infrastructure and markets. The safety and environmental integrity of the pipeline system was also evaluated. The current adequacy of pipeline capacity was assessed based on price differentials compared with firm service tolls for major transportation paths; capacity utilization on pipelines; and, the degree of apportionment on major oil pipelines. The NEB concluded that the Canadian hydrocarbon transportation system is working effectively, with an adequate capacity in place on existing natural gas pipelines, but with a tight capacity on oil pipelines. It was noted that shippers continue to indicate that they are reasonably satisfied with the services provided by pipeline companies and that the NEB-regulated pipeline companies are financially stable. 14 refs, 11 tabs., 28 figs., 4 appendices

  17. Comparison of the transportation risks for the spent fuel in Korea for different transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jongtae; Cho, D.K.; Choi, H.J.; Choi, J.W.

    2011-01-01

    According to the long term management strategy for spent fuels in Korea, they will be transported from the spent fuel pools in each nuclear power plant to the central interim storage facility (CISF) which is to start operation in 2016. At the start of the operation of the final repository (FR), by the year 2065, transport will then take place between the CISF and the FR. Therefore, we have to determine the safe and economical logistics for the transportation of these spent fuels by considering their transportation risks and costs. In this study, we developed four transportation scenarios for a maritime transportation by considering the type of transportation casks and transport means in order to suggest safe and economical transportation logistics for the spent fuels in Korea. And, we estimated and compared the transportation risks for these four transportation scenarios. Also, we estimated and compared the transportation risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of PWR and PHWR spent fuels by road trailers from the CISF and the FR. From the results of this study, we found that risks resulting from accidents during the transportation of the spent fuels have a very low radiological risk activity with a manageable safety and health consequences. The results of this study can be used as basic data for the development of safe and economical logistics for a transportation of the spent fuels in Korea by considering the transportation costs for the four scenarios which will be needed in the near future.

  18. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  19. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  20. Regional groundwater flow and tritium transport modeling and risk assessment of the underground test area, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1997-10-01

    underground testing areas on a regional scale. The groundwater flow model was used in conjunction with a particle-tracking code to define the pathlines followed by groundwater particles originating from 415 points associated with 253 nuclear test locations. Three of the most rapid pathlines were selected for transport simulations. These pathlines are associated with three nuclear test locations, each representing one of the three largest testing areas. These testing locations are: BOURBON on Yucca Flat, HOUSTON on Central Pahute Mesa, and TYBO on Western Pahute Mesa. One-dimensional stochastic tritium transport simulations were performed for the three pathlines using the Monte Carlo method with Latin hypercube sampling. For the BOURBON and TYBO pathlines, sources of tritium from other tests located along the same pathline were included in the simulations. Sensitivity analyses were also performed on the transport model to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the geologic model, the rates of groundwater flow, the tritium source, and the transport parameters. Tritium concentration predictions were found to be mostly sensitive to the regional geology in controlling the horizontal and vertical position of transport pathways. The simulated concentrations are also sensitive to matrix diffusion, an important mechanism governing the migration of tritium in fractured carbonate and volcanic rocks. Source term concentration uncertainty is most important near the test locations and decreases in importance as the travel distance increases. The uncertainty on groundwater flow rates is as important as that on matrix diffusion at downgradient locations. The risk assessment was performed to provide conservative and bounding estimates of the potential risks to human health and the environment from tritium in groundwater. Risk models were designed by coupling scenario-specific tritium intake with tritium dose models and cancer and genetic risk estimates using the Monte Carlo method

  1. RADTRAN II: a computerized model for risk analysis of transportation of radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.; Biringer, B.E.

    1980-01-01

    The RADTRAN computer code, which formed the basis for the 1977 US generic transportation risk assessment, has been extensively updated. The updated version of the code, denoted RADTRAN II, includes changes based on findings from other transportation risk studies as well as changes based on reevaluation of earlier assumptions, analyses, and computerization techniques. The environmental impact of the transportation of radioactive material can be envisioned as consisting of five components, incident free transport, non-radiological impacts, vehicular accidents, breaches of security/safeguards, and failures of quality assurance. RADTRAN II is designed to evaluate both the incident-free and the accident contribution directly and can be used to evaluate the contributions of breaches of security and quality assurances deviation if some alterations in coding are made. Non-radiological impacts are not addressed

  2. 31 CFR 337.2 - Transportation charges and risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Transportation charges and risks. 337... FEDERAL HOUSING ADMINISTRATION DEBENTURES Certificated Debentures § 337.2 Transportation charges and risks... to book-entry form, must be delivered at the expense and risk of the holder. Debentures bearing...

  3. The environmental assessment of nuclear materials disposition options: A transportation perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, R.K.; Clauss, D.B.; Moyer, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has undertaken a program to evaluate and select options for the long-term storage and disposition of fissile materials declared surplus to defense needs as a result of the end of the Cold War. The transport of surplus fissile material will be an important and highly visible aspect of the environmental impact studies and other planning documents required for implementation of the disposition options. This report defines the roles and requirements for transportation of fissile materials in the program, and discusses an existing methodology for determining the environmental impact in terms of risk. While it will be some time before specific alternatives are chosen that will permit the completion of detailed risk calculations, the analytical models for performing the probabilistic risk assessments already exist with much of the supporting data related to the transportation system. This report summarizes the various types of data required and identifies sources for that data

  4. Assessing Sensitiveness to Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lieb, Christoph; Suter, Stefan; Sánchez, Alfredo

    Summary The EU-project ASSET (ASessing SEnsitiveness to Transport) aims at developing and implementing a concise concept to assess transport sensitive areas (TSA) in a European context, i.e. areas in which transport leads to more serious impacts than in other areas. The aim of work package 2 (WP2...

  5. An integrated risk assessment of the environmental hazards influence on Kazakhstan section (from Khorgas and Dostyk dry ports to Aktau seaport) of the international transport corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akiyanova, F. Zh; Arykbayeva, Z. K.; Atalikhova, A. M.; Dauilbayev, B. A.; Zinabdin, N. B.; Kubeyev, A. B.; Tkach, K. A.

    2018-01-01

    The article outlines research results on the assessment of natural hazards impact risk on the international transport corridors’ Kazakhstan section (from Khorgas and Dostyk dry ports to the seaport of Aktau) functioning. Based on the component-by-stage analysis of physical and geographical conditions with the use of qualimetric approach, the areas with different risk levels of natural disasters were identified. To minimize the risk of natural problems exposure, a set of environmental recommendations has been developed.

  6. Seasonal rockfall risk assessment along transportation network: a sample from Mallorca (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, Rosa Maria; Garcia, Inmaculada; Reichenbach, Paola; Herrera, Gerardo; Rius, Joan; Aguilo, Raul; Roldan, Francisco J.

    2014-05-01

    In the literature there are numerous works focusing on rockfall risk assessment along transportation corridors which take into account several factors, including the annual average traffic volume. Few papers examine in detail examples with a strong seasonal distribution of people travelling along roads, in particular in regions with a great importance for tourism. In these areas, potential blockages along the road network can cause significant economic losses, considering not only direct costs, but also indirect ones related to a reduction in tourism arrivals, with the consequent loss of jobs and profits. In this work we present a methodology for rockfall risk assessment focusing on the reliability and applicability of the evaluation in a test site located in the island of Mallorca, a region which welcomes over 11.3 million visitors per year and where tourism represents the main source of income (83% of its GDP). The Ma-10 road (111 km), located in the north-western sector of the island along the coastal face of the Tramuntana range, has been affected by 85 rockfall events during the past 18 years, which caused repairing costs valued at approximately 2M Euro (Mateos et al., 2013). Rockfalls are triggered by heavy rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles and, for these reasons, autumn and winter can be considered as the most hazardous seasons (Mateos et al., 2012). The road has heavy traffic estimated at 7.200 vehicles per day on average, with a seasonal variation of people travelling in vehicles, the summer being most prominent- up to 6 times the average- due to the pattern of tourism arrivals. To analyse the seasonal rockfall hazard and risk along the Ma-10 road, we obtained the extent of the areas potentially subject to rockfall hazards using STONE, a physically-based rockfall simulation computer program (Guzzetti et al, 2002). The availability of historical rockfalls mapped in detail allowed checking the STONE results, and identifying a hazardous area on the southern

  7. Assessment of the radiological risks of road transport accidents involving type A-packages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Fett, H.J.; Schwarz, G.; Raffestin, D.; Schneider, T.; Gelder, R.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.; Hedberg, B.; Simenstad, P.; Svahn, B.; Van Hienen, J.F.A.; Jansma, R.

    1998-10-01

    This document, prepared in the framework of a study for the European Commission, presents the evaluation of the risks of accidents associated to the road transport of type A-packages (primarily packages of radio-pharmaceutic or radiography products) for five countries of the European Union. The annual transport of type A-packages varies considerably from one country to another, some countries being producers of radio-pharmaceutic products, others not. These packages are also very different one from each another: the weight varies generally from 1 to 25 kg and the activity from some Mega-Becquerels to few tens of Giga-Becquerels, the average activity expressed in A 2 is 0,01. (A.L.B.)

  8. The role of parental risk judgements, transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking to school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehdizadeh, Milad; Nordfjaern, Trond; Mamdoohi, Amir Reza; Shariat Mohaymany, Afshin

    2017-05-01

    Walking to school could improve pupils' health condition and might also reduce the use of motorized transport modes, which leads to both traffic congestion and air pollution. The current study aims to examine the role of parental risk judgements (i.e. risk perception and worry), transport safety attitudes, transport priorities and accident experiences on pupils' walking and mode choices on school trips in Iran, a country with poor road safety records. A total of 1078 questionnaires were randomly distributed among pupils at nine public and private schools in January 2014 in Rasht, Iran. Results from valid observations (n=711) showed that parents with high probability assessments of accidents and strong worry regarding pupils' accident risk while walking were less likely to let their children walk to school. Parents with high safety knowledge were also more likely to allow their pupils to walk to school. Parents who prioritized convenience and accessibility in transport had a stronger tendency to choose motorized modes over walking modes. Also, parents who prioritized safety and security in transport were less likely to allow pupils to walk to school. Elasticities results showed that a one percent increase in priorities of convenience and accessibility, priorities of safety and security, car ownership and walking time from home to school reduced walking among pupils by a probability of 0.62, 0.20, 0.86 and 0.57%, respectively. A one percent increase in parental safety knowledge increased the walking probability by around 0.25%. A 1 unit increase in parental probability assessment and worry towards pupils' walking, decreased the probability of choosing walking mode by 0.11 and 0.05, respectively. Policy-makers who aim to promote walking to schools should improve safety and security of the walking facilities and increase parental safety knowledge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Cask Drop Accident during On-site Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Jae Hyun; Christian, Robby; Momani, Belal Al; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are two ways to transfer the SNF from a site to other site, one is land transportation and the other is maritime transportation. Maritime transportation might be used because this way uses more safe route which is far from populated area. The whole transportation process can be divided in two parts: transferring the SNF between SNP and wharf in-Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site by truck, and transferring the SNF from the wharf to the other wharf by ship. In this research, on-site SNF transportation between SNP and wharf was considered. Two kinds of single accident can occur during this type of SNF transportation, impact and fire, caused by internal events and external events. In this research, PRA of cask drop accident during onsite SNF transportation was done, risk to a person (mSv/person) from a case with specific conditions was calculated. In every 11 FEM simulation drop cases, FDR is 1 even the fuel assemblies are located inside of the cask. It is a quite larger value for all cases than the results with similar drop condition from the reports which covers the PRA on cask storage system. Because different from previous reports, subsequent impact was considered. Like in figure 8, accelerations which are used to calculate the FDR has extremely higher values in subsequent impact than the first impact for all SNF assemblies.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of WSSV transmission through partial harvesting and transport practices for shrimp aquaculture in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Zazueta, Edgar; Martínez-Cordero, Francisco Javier; Chávez-Sánchez, María Cristina; Montoya-Rodríguez, Leobardo

    2017-10-01

    This quantitative risk assessment provided an analytical framework to estimate white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risks in the following different scenarios: (1) partial harvest from rearing ponds and (2) post-harvest transportation, assuming that the introduction of contaminated water with viral particles into shrimp culture ponds is the main source of viral transmission risk. Probabilities of infecting shrimp with waterborne WSSV were obtained by approaching the functional form that best fits (likelihood ratio test) published data on the dose-response relationship for WSSV orally inoculated through water into shrimp. Expert opinion defined the ranges for the following uncertain factors: (1) the concentrations of WSSV in the water spilled from the vehicles transporting the infected shrimp, (2) the total volume of these spills, and (3) the dilution into culture ponds. Multiple scenarios were analysed, starting with a viral load (VL) of 1×10 2 mL -1 in the contaminated water spilled that reached the culture pond, whose probability of infection of an individual shrimp (P i ) was negligible (1.7×10 -7 ). Increasing the VL to 1×10 4.5 mL -1 and 1×10 7 mL -1 yielded results into very low (P i =5.3×10 -5 ) and high risk (P i =1.6×10 -2 ) categories, respectively. Furthermore, different pond stocking density (SD) scenarios (20 and 30 post-larvae [PL]/m 2 ) were evaluated, and the probability of infection of at least one out of the total number of shrimp exposed (P N ) was derived; for the scenarios with a low VL (1×10 2 mL -1 ), the P N remained at a negligible risk level (P N , 2.4×10 -7 to 1.8×10 -6 ). For most of the scenarios with the moderate VL (1×10 4.5 mL -1 ), the P N scaled up to a low risk category (P N , 1.1×10 -4 to 5.6×10 -4 ), whereas for the scenarios with a high VL (1×10 7 mL -1 ), the risk levels were high (P N , 2.3×10 -2 to 3.5×10 -2 ) or very high (P N , 1.1×10 -1 to 1.6×10 -1 ) depending on the volume of contaminated water

  11. A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Binning, Philip John; Jørgensen, Peter R.

    2011-01-01

    A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media is developed, based on simple transient and steady-state analytical solutions. The discrete fracture (DF) tool, which explicitly accounts for the transport along fractures, covers different source geometries...... and history (including secondary sources) and can be applied to a wide range of compounds. The tool successfully simulates published data from short duration column and field experiments. The use for risk assessment is illustrated by three typical risk assessment case studies, involving pesticides...

  12. Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-07-01

    Results are summarized of the risk assessments of shipping PuO 2 powder and liquid Pu nitrate by truck and rail in the U.S. In the analysis method used, the system is described, potential release sequences are identified and evaluated (fault tree used), and the system risk is assessed. It is concluded that: there is little difference in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk in shipping PuO 2 by rail and by truck; there also is little change in risk for liquid shipment; the vermiculite loss is somewhat less important in rail shipment; and the response of the L-10 container to crush is more important in rail transport

  13. Including Health in Environmental Assessments of Major Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Documentary Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Emily; Harris, Patrick; Kent, Jennifer; Sainsbury, Peter; Lane, Anna; Baum, Fran

    2018-05-10

    Transport policy and practice impacts health. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are regulated public policy mechanisms that can be used to consider the health impacts of major transport projects before they are approved. The way health is considered in these environmental assessments (EAs) is not well known. This research asked: How and to what extent was human health considered in EAs of four major transport projects in Australia. We developed a comprehensive coding framework to analyse the Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) of four transport infrastructure projects: three road and one light rail. The coding framework was designed to capture how health was directly and indirectly included. We found that health was partially considered in all four EISs. In the three New South Wales (NSW) projects, but not the one South Australian project, this was influenced by the requirements issued to proponents by the government which directed the content of the EIS. Health was assessed using human health risk assessment (HHRA). We found this to be narrow in focus and revealed a need for a broader social determinants of health approach, using multiple methods. The road assessments emphasised air quality and noise risks, concluding these were minimal or predicted to improve. The South Australian project was the only road project not to include health data explicitly. The light rail EIS considered the health benefits of the project whereas the others focused on risk. Only one project considered mental health, although in less detail than air quality or noise. Our findings suggest EIAs lag behind the known evidence linking transport infrastructure to health. If health is to be comprehensively included, a more complete model of health is required, as well as a shift away from health risk assessment as the main method used. This needs to be mandatory for all significant developments. We also found that considering health only at the EIA stage may be a significant

  14. Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

  15. Hygienic assessment of working conditions and occupational risk for workers health at railway transport objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.A. Loginova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We performed hygienic assessment of working conditions at railway transport over 2011–2015. We detected a decreasing trend in specific weight of working places where physical factors were higher than hygienic standards and where steam and gases content in working area air was higher than maximum permissible concentrations (MPC. Working conditions of locomotive teams remain most unfavorable as per risk factors. We detected that a priori occupation risk for locomotive teams was characterized with parameters varying from moderate to considerable ones. Occupational noise was determined as a priority risk factor making working conditions category a hazardous one and it corresponded to occupational morbidity structure. We detected that sensorineural hearing loss took a leading place in morbidity both in the branch in general and among locomotive team workers. We also clarified that such workers as engine drivers and their assistants (up to 43 % had the greatest specific weight among railway workers with occupational diseases; occupational morbidity among locomotive team workers amounted to 3.0 per 10,000 workers in 2015 while average morbidity among all railway workers amounted to only 1.32 per 10,000 workers. We revealed that occupational diseases were most frequently detected in workers aged 51–60 (51.9 % in 2014 who had worked under hazardous occupational factors influence for longer than 15 years. While there was an overall decreasing trend in occupa-tional morbidity in the branch in 2011–2015 from 1.68 to 1.32 per 10,000 workers, we detected a brunch peculiarity in the risk group, namely, an unsatisfactory trend for growing share of workers with occupational diseases aged 31–40 (from 2.6 % in 2011 to 12 % in 2014 and it requires special attention in terms of risk management.

  16. A Transportation Risk Assessment Tool for Analyzing the Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste to the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Best, Ralph; Winnard, T.; Ross, S.; Best, R.

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Transportation Database was developed as a data management tool for assembling and integrating data from multiple sources to compile the potential transportation impacts presented in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada (DEIS). The database uses the results from existing models and codes such as RADTRAN, RISKIND, INTERLINE, and HIGHWAY to estimate transportation-related impacts of transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from commercial reactors and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities to Yucca Mountain. The source tables in the database are compendiums of information from many diverse sources including: radionuclide quantities for each waste type; route and route characteristics for rail, legal-weight truck, heavy haul. truck, and barge transport options; state-specific accident and fatality rates for routes selected for analysis; packaging and shipment data by waste type; unit risk factors; the complex behavior of the packaged waste forms in severe transport accidents; and the effects of exposure to radiation or the isotopic specific effects of radionclides should they be released in severe transportation accidents. The database works together with the codes RADTRAN (Neuhauser, et al, 1994) and RISKlND (Yuan, et al, 1995) to calculate incident-free dose and accident risk. For the incident-free transportation scenario, the database uses RADTRAN and RISKIND-generated data to calculate doses to offlink populations, onlink populations, people at stops, crews, inspectors, workers at intermodal transfer stations, guards at overnight stops, and escorts, as well as non-radioactive pollution health effects. For accident scenarios, the database uses RADTRAN-generated data to calculate dose risks based on ingestion, inhalation, resuspension, immersion (cloudshine), and groundshine as

  17. Risk of transporting plutonium dioxide and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, L.D.; Hall, R.J.

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis method developed to assess the risk in the transportation of radioactive materials and demonstrates its application by summarizing the results of risk assessments of the shipment of plutonium dioxide powder and liquid plutonium nitrate by truck and rail in the United States. In the risk assessment, postulated release modes (series of events that could result in a release of radioactive material) are identified using the fault tree analysis method. Two categories of events that could contribute to a release during transportation are considered: accidents and substandard packaging conditions. The likelihood of basic events in these categories are determined from general accident experience, radioactive material shipping experience, engineering analysis, etc. Using the laws of combining probabilities, the likelihood of radioactive material release is then evaluated. Since accidents vary greatly in severity, the releases from these postulated events also vary in magnitude from the no release condition up through release of the entire package contents. The bases for the release quantities assigned to the postulated accidents sequences are discussed. The consequences of these postulated releases are evaluated based on the amount of plutonium estimated to be released to the environs, the probable weather conditions at the time of the accident, and population density downwind from the accident scene. The likelihood and consequence of postulated releases are coupled and expressed as a risk spectra. (author)

  18. Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Goldstein, Bernard D; Anderson, Elizabeth; Dourson, Michael; Landis, Wayne; North, D Warner

    2015-11-01

    Six multi-decade-long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk-related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. AREVA Logistics Business Unit Transportation Risk Management Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anne, C.

    2009-01-01

    A safe, secure and reliable transportation organization is a key component for the success of the nuclear industry. With the forecasted increase of radioactive material transport flows in future and the changing environment, AREVA Logistic Business Unit (L-BU) must ensure that safety and security risks are minimized but also ensure of the chain supply for its various facilities (mines, conversion, enrichment, fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, etc). AREVA L-BU Unit is implementing a transportation risk management initiative for the radioactive shipments of the AREVA group across all the Business Unit involved in shipments of radioactive and nuclear materials. The paper will present the four main components of the risk management. (authors)

  20. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  1. Modeling particle transport and discoloration risk in drinking water distribution networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Summeren

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Discoloration of drinking water is a worldwide phenomenon caused by accumulation and subsequent remobilization of particulate matter in drinking water distribution systems (DWDSs. It contributes a substantial fraction of customer complaints to water utilities. Accurate discoloration risk predictions could improve system operation by allowing for more effective programs on cleaning and prevention actions and field measurements, but are challenged by incomplete understanding on the origins and properties of particles and a complex and not fully understood interplay of processes in distribution networks. In this paper, we assess and describe relevant hydraulic processes that govern particle transport in turbulent pipe flow, including gravitational settling, bed-load transport, and particle entrainment into suspension. We assess which transport mechanisms are dominant for a range of bulk flow velocities, particle diameters, and particle mass densities, which includes common conditions for DWDSs in the Netherlands, the UK, and Australia. Our analysis shows that the theoretically predicted particle settling velocity and threshold shear stresses for incipient particle motion are in the same range as, but more variable than, previous estimates from lab experiments, field measurements, and modeling. The presented material will be used in the future development of a numerical modeling tool to determine and predict the spatial distribution of particulate material and discoloration risk in DWDSs. Our approach is aimed at understanding specific causalities and processes, which can complement data-driven approaches.

  2. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E. [BNFL Fuel Solutions, Campbell, CA (United States)

    2004-07-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads.

  3. Transporting existing VSC-24 canisters using a risk-based licensing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srinivasan, R.; Sisley, S.E.; Hopf, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    The eventual disposition of the spent fuel assemblies loaded in canisters and casks currently designed and licensed only for on-site storage is an industry-wide issue. The canister-specific BUC evaluation approach developed by BFS can be used to license many of these storage canisters and casks for transportation. This will allow these storage canisters and casks to be transported intact to a long-term storage facility or repository, thereby minimizing fuel handling operations, impact on plant operations, and occupational exposure, as well as total infrastructure costs. Application of the proposed canister-specific BUC analysis approach to a preliminary evaluation of the 58 loaded MSBs demonstrates the benefits of this approach. The results of this preliminary evaluation show that a more rigorous analysis based on the known characteristics of the loaded spent fuel, rather than the design-basis fuel parameters, produces significantly lower maximum keff values and can be used to qualify many of the existing loaded storage canisters for transportation. Transportation certification for storage canisters having more reactive spent fuel payloads may require reliance on BUC approaches that are more aggressive than current NRC guidelines allow. Credit may be required for fission- product isotopes that do not have sufficient chemical assay data for benchmarking. In addition, reduced criticality safety margins may be required. For these more-aggressive BUC approaches, a risk assessment should be provided to support the NRC-approval basis. The risk assessment should evaluate the possibility and consequences of an accidental criticality event based upon inaccuracies in the characterization of the spent-fuel payloads

  4. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  5. Development and application of a catchment scale pesticide fate and transport model for use in drinking water risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pullan, S P; Whelan, M J; Rettino, J; Filby, K; Eyre, S; Holman, I P

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes the development and application of IMPT (Integrated Model for Pesticide Transport), a parameter-efficient tool for predicting diffuse-source pesticide concentrations in surface waters used for drinking water supply. The model was applied to a small UK headwater catchment with high frequency (8h) pesticide monitoring data and to five larger catchments (479-1653km(2)) with sampling approximately every 14days. Model performance was good for predictions of both flow (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency generally >0.59 and PBIAS water resources to support operational and strategic risk assessments. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Probabilistic assessment of dry transport with burnup credit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lake, W.H.

    2003-01-01

    The general concept of probabilistic analysis and its application to the use of burnup credit in spent fuel transport is explored. Discussion of the probabilistic analysis method is presented. The concepts of risk and its perception are introduced, and models are suggested for performing probability and risk estimates. The general probabilistic models are used for evaluating the application of burnup credit for dry spent nuclear fuel transport. Two basic cases are considered. The first addresses the question of the relative likelihood of exceeding an established criticality safety limit with and without burnup credit. The second examines the effect of using burnup credit on the overall risk for dry spent fuel transport. Using reasoned arguments and related failure probability and consequence data analysis is performed to estimate the risks of using burnup credit for dry transport of spent nuclear fuel. (author)

  7. Preliminary risk assessment database and risk ranking of pharmaceuticals in the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Emily R.; Siewicki, Thomas C.; Phillips, Karl

    2008-01-01

    There is increasing concern about pharmaceuticals entering surface waters and the impacts these compounds may have on aquatic organisms. Many contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, are not completely removed by wastewater treatment. Discharge of effluent into surface waters results in chronic low-concentration exposure of aquatic organisms to these compounds, with unknown impacts. Exposure of virulent bacteria in wastewater to antibiotic residues may also induce resistance, which could threaten human health. The purpose of this study was to provide information on pharmaceutical threats to the environment. A preliminary risk assessment database for common pharmaceuticals was created and put into a web-accessible database named 'Pharmaceuticals in the Environment, Information for Assessing Risk' (PEIAR) to help others evaluate potential risks of pharmaceutical contaminants in the environment. Information from PEIAR was used to prioritize compounds that may threaten the environment, with a focus on marine and estuarine environments. The pharmaceuticals were ranked using five different combinations of physical-chemical and toxicological data, which emphasized different risks. The results of the ranking methods differed in the compounds identified as high risk; however, drugs from the central nervous system, cardiovascular, and anti-infective classes were heavily represented within the top 100 drugs in all rankings. Anti-infectives may pose the greatest overall risk based upon our results using a combination of factors that measure environmental transport, fate, and aquatic toxicity. The dataset is also useful for highlighting information that is still needed to assuredly assess risk

  8. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  9. Risk comparisons for the transportation of spent fuel from nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, A.P.; Lessard, E.T.

    1985-04-01

    In summary, on the basis of calculated estimates, tests and accident statistics, the transport of spent nuclear fuel by whatever means has been shown to represent an infinitesimally small risk to the public, wherever they may be located enroute. This conclusion is based on three points (1) the probability of an accident involving spent fuel is small, (2) the probability that this hypothetical accident releases radioactive materials is even smaller and (3) the public-health consequences of such a release are trivial. It hardly seems to warrant the extensive assessment that it has received. If the risk to the public is of concern, this attention and analysis might have been more profitably spent on the improvement of the safety of the transport of a wide variety of other hazardous substances, which at present are given little if any prior scrutiny

  10. Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF6 by truck and trains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1989-01-01

    The present case study deals with the problem of uranium hexafluoride transportation by truck and train. It consists of a probabilistic risk assessment of the potential hazards to the public that can arise from the traffic that will take place in France in 1990. The specificity of UF 6 is that it presents both chemical and radiological hazards. But, whatever the transported material, road traffic entails a risk of its own. Thus three kinds of risks are assessed for natural, depleted and enriched uranium hexafluoride. These assessments are the basis of a cost-effectiveness analysis which deals with such safety measures as using a protective overpack, avoiding populated areas and escorting the trucks

  11. Packaging and transportation risk management and evaluation plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhyne, W.R.

    1993-09-01

    Shipments of radioactive materials and hazardous chemicals at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are governed by a variety of Federal and state regulations, industrial standards, and LANL processes and procedures. Good judgement is exercised in situations that are not covered by regulations. As a result, the safety record for transporting hazardous materials at LANL has been excellent. However, future decisions should be made such that the decision-making process produces a defensible record of the safety of onsite shipments. This report proposes the development of a risk management tool to meet this need. First, the application of quantitative risk analysis methodology to transportation is presented to provide a framework of understanding. Risk analysis definitions, the basic quantitative risk analysis procedure, quantitative methodologies, transportation data bases, and risk presentation techniques are described. Quantitative risk analysis is frequently complex; but simplified approaches can be used as a management tool to make good decisions. Second, a plan to apply the use of risk management principles to the selection of routes, special administrative controls, and containers for hazardous material transportation at LANL is provided. A risk management tool is proposed that can be used by MAT-2 without substantial support from specialized safety and risk analysis personnel, e.g., HS-3. A workbook approach is proposed that can be automated at a later date. The safety of some types of onsite shipments at LANL is not well documented. Documenting that shipments are safe, i.e., present acceptable risks, will likely require elaborate analyses that should be thoroughly reviewed by safety and risk professionals. These detailed analyses are used as benchmarks and as examples for the use of the proposed tool by MAT-2. Once the benchmarks are established, the workbook can be used by MAT-2 to quantify that safety goals are met by similar shipments

  12. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  13. Development of the NIREX generic transport safety assessment to assist in the provision of waste packaging advice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutchinson, D.L.; Marrison, A.R.; Sievwright, R.W.T.

    2002-01-01

    The current Nirex Mission is to provide the United Kingdom with safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable options for the long-term management of radioactive materials. As part of this role, Nirex has developed a phased deep geological disposal concept which is defined by six 'generic documents' that describe systems, processes and safety assessments that are not specific to any one location or geology. These generic documents give access to detailed information about the ideas and approaches that underpin the phased disposal concept, and have been published with an invitation to enter into dialogue with Nirex regarding these issues. The generic documents identify the requirements for an integrated transport system that would be necessary for the management of the intermediate-level (ILW) and low-level (LLW) wastes within Nirex's remit - the so-called reference case volume. This has involved Nirex in the development of transport hardware and associated safety reports and modelling and assessment tools for transport system logistics and system safety. Although the phased disposal concept is only one option for the long-term management of waste, the integrated transport system and associated modelling tools, is likely to be of equal relevance to other options. The safety assessment of the generic transport operation for the movement of ILW and LLW waste from waste producers' sites to a future radioactive waste disposal facility is described in one of the generic documents - the generic transport safety assessment (GTSA). The GTSA demonstrates that the transport operation is compliant with Nirex safety principles, and that the nuclear and non-nuclear risks to the public and workers from routine transport and from accidents are acceptable. This paper describes the types of risk that are calculated, and discusses the data requirements and calculation methodology. The verification and validation methodology is outlined, together with a discussion of the results

  14. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

  15. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

  16. Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.

  17. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  18. Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF{sub 6} by truck and trains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1989-08-01

    The present case study deals with the problem of uranium hexafluoride transportation by truck and train. It consists of a probabilistic risk assessment of the potential hazards to the public that can arise from the traffic that will take place in France in 1990. The specificity of UF{sub 6} is that it presents both chemical and radiological hazards. But, whatever the transported material, road traffic entails a risk of its own. Thus three kinds of risks are assessed for natural, depleted and enriched uranium hexafluoride. These assessments are the basis of a cost-effectiveness analysis which deals with such safety measures as using a protective overpack, avoiding populated areas and escorting the trucks.

  19. Onsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the onsite transportation of hazardous material at the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5500.3A and provides the technical basis for the emergency classification and response procedures. A distinction is made between onsite for the purpose of emergency preparedness and onsite for the purpose of applying US Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations. Onsite for the purpose of emergency preparedness is considered to be within the physical boundary of the entire Hanford Site. Onsite for the purpose of applying DOT regulations is north of the Wye Barricade

  20. Canadian pipeline transportation system : transportation assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    In addition to regulating the construction and operation of 70,000 km of oil and natural gas pipelines in Canada, the National Energy Board (NEB) regulates the trade of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids. This report provided an assessment of the Canadian hydrocarbon transportation system in relation to its ability to provide a robust energy infrastructure. Data was collected from NEB-regulated pipeline companies and a range of publicly available sources to determine if adequate pipeline capacity is in place to transport products to consumers. The NEB also used throughput and capacity information received from pipeline operators as well as members of the investment community. The study examined price differentials compared with firm service tolls for transportation paths, as well as capacity utilization on pipelines and the degree of apportionment on major oil pipelines. This review indicated that in general, the Canadian pipeline transportation system continues to work effectively, with adequate pipeline capacity in place to move products to consumers who need them. 9 tabs., 30 figs., 3 appendices.

  1. Incremental Risks of Transporting NARM to the LLW Disposal Facility at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, R.F.

    1999-01-01

    This study models the incremental radiological risk of transporting NARM to the Hanford commercial LLW facility, both for incident-free transportation and for possible transportation accidents, compared with the radiological risk of transporting LLW to that facility. Transportation routes are modeled using HIGHWAY 3.1 and risks are modeled using RADTRAN 4. Both annual population doses and risks, and annual average individual doses and risks are reported. Three routes to the Hanford site were modeled from Albany, OR, from Coeur d'Alene, ID (called the Spokane route), and from Seattle, WA. Conservative estimates are used in the RADTRAN inputs, and RADTRAN itself is conservative

  2. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report

  3. PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

    1986-04-01

    PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report.

  4. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  5. RADTRAN3, Risk of Radioactive Material Transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, M.M.; Taylor, J.M.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Reardon, P.C.

    2001-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: RADTRAN3 is a flexible analytical tool for calculating both the incident-free and accident impacts of transporting radioactive materials. The consequences from incident-free shipments are apportioned among eight population sub- groups and can be calculated for several transport modes. The radiological accident risk (probability times consequence summed over all postulated accidents) is calculated in terms of early fatalities, early morbidities, latent cancer fatalities, genetic effects, and economic impacts. Ground-shine, ingestion, inhalation, direct exposure, resuspension, and cloud-shine dose pathways are modeled to calculate the radiological health risks from accidents. Economic impacts are evaluated based on costs for emergency response, cleanup, evacuation, income loss, and land use. RADTRAN3 can be applied to specific scenario evaluations (individual transport modes or specified combinations), to compare alternative modes or to evaluate generic radioactive material shipments. Unit-risk factors can easily be evaluated to aid in performing generic analyses when several options must be compared with the amount of travel as the only variable. RADTRAN4 offers advances in the handling of route-related data and in the treatment of multiple-isotope materials. 2 - Method of solution: There are several modes used in the transporting of radioactive material such as trucks, passenger vans, passenger airplanes, rail and others. With these modes of transport come several shipment scenarios. The RADTRAN4 methodology uses material, transportation, population distribution, and health effects models to treat the incident-free case. To handle the vehicle accident impacts, accident severity and package release, meteorological dispersion, and economic models are also employed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: There are no apparent limitations due to programming dimensions

  6. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  7. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis; hide

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was

  8. Radiological safety assessment of transporting radioactive waste to the Gyeongju disposal facility in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jong Tae; Baik, Min Hoon; Kang, Mun Ja; Ahn, Hong Joo; Hwang, Doo Seong; Hong, Dae Seok; Jeong, Yong Hwan; Kim, Kyung Su [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    A radiological safety assessment study was performed for the transportation of low level radioactive wastes which are temporarily stored in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI), Daejeon, Korea. We considered two kinds of wastes: (1) operation wastes generated from the routine operation of facilities; and (2) decommissioning wastes generated from the decommissioning of a research reactor in KAERI. The important part of the radiological safety assessment is related to the exposure dose assessment for the incident-free (normal) transportation of wastes, i.e., the radiation exposure of transport personnel, radiation workers for loading and unloading of radioactive waste drums, and the general public. The effective doses were estimated based on the detailed information on the transportation plan and on the radiological characteristics of waste packages. We also estimated radiological risks and the effective doses for the general public resulting from accidents such as an impact and a fire caused by the impact during the transportation. According to the results, the effective doses for transport personnel, radiation workers, and the general public are far below the regulatory limits. Therefore, we can secure safety from the viewpoint of radiological safety for all situations during the transportation of radioactive wastes which have been stored temporarily in KAERI.

  9. Radiological Safety Assessment of Transporting Radioactive Wastes to the Gyeongju Disposal Facility in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jongtae Jeong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available A radiological safety assessment study was performed for the transportation of low level radioactive wastes which are temporarily stored in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI, Daejeon, Korea. We considered two kinds of wastes: (1 operation wastes generated from the routine operation of facilities; and (2 decommissioning wastes generated from the decommissioning of a research reactor in KAERI. The important part of the radiological safety assessment is related to the exposure dose assessment for the incident-free (normal transportation of wastes, i.e., the radiation exposure of transport personnel, radiation workers for loading and unloading of radioactive waste drums, and the general public. The effective doses were estimated based on the detailed information on the transportation plan and on the radiological characteristics of waste packages. We also estimated radiological risks and the effective doses for the general public resulting from accidents such as an impact and a fire caused by the impact during the transportation. According to the results, the effective doses for transport personnel, radiation workers, and the general public are far below the regulatory limits. Therefore, we can secure safety from the viewpoint of radiological safety for all situations during the transportation of radioactive wastes which have been stored temporarily in KAERI.

  10. An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

    1999-01-01

    Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

  11. Ensuring the quality of occupational safety risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2013-03-01

    In work environments, the main aim of occupational safety risk assessment (OSRA) is to improve the safety level of an installation or site by either preventing accidents and injuries or minimizing their consequences. To this end, it is of paramount importance to identify all sources of hazards and assess their potential to cause problems in the respective context. If the OSRA process is inadequate and/or not applied effectively, it results in an ineffective safety prevention program and inefficient use of resources. An appropriate OSRA is an essential component of the occupational safety risk management process in industries. In this article, we performed a survey to elicit the relative importance for identified OSRA tasks to enable an in-depth evaluation of the quality of risk assessments related to occupational safety aspects on industrial sites. The survey involved defining a questionnaire with the most important elements (tasks) for OSRA quality assessment, which was then presented to safety experts in the mining, electrical power production, transportation, and petrochemical industries. With this work, we expect to contribute to the main question of OSRA in industries: "What constitutes a good occupational safety risk assessment?" The results obtained from the questionnaire showed that experts agree with the proposed OSRA process decomposition in steps and tasks (taxonomy) and also with the importance of assigning weights to obtain knowledge about OSRA task relevance. The knowledge gained will enable us, in the near future, to build a framework to evaluate OSRA quality for industrial sites. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Assessment of Logistics Risk using Collective Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skitsko Volodymyr I.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In substantiating management decisions in logistics, there can be used various economic and mathematical methods and models for quantitative risk assessment constructed with the help of a variety of instruments. Due to the increase in the processing power of computer equipment, economic and mathematical models become more complex, more precise, and the range of modeling tools expands. The current promising area in mathematical modeling is collective artificial intelligence, with the help of which it is possible to effectively solve weakly structured, multi-criteria, multi-purpose, complex economic problems. The mathematical model of the bat algorithm, the basic rules and steps of its functioning are presented, the application of the bat algorithm to solve the multi-index transport problem in the formulation of which the logistics risk is taken into account is shown, and the way to assess the logistics risk using the results of the functioning of the bat algorithm is shown.

  13. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT AS TRANSPORTATION SAFETY PROVISION INSTRUMENT IN RUSSIA

    OpenAIRE

    V. A. Nikolayev

    2012-01-01

    Safety of transportation in Russia is subject to a variety of threats. Discussed in the article are characteristics of major threats to transportation security. State transportation policy directions that make it possible to ensure the security of cargo and passenger transportation are shown. A listof activities and innovative risk management tools that provide for improved safety of railway transportation is proposed.

  15. A big data analysis approach for rail failure risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamshidi, A.; Faghih Roohi, S.; Hajizadeh, S.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Babuska, R.; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2017-01-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by

  16. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  17. Recent developments in health risks modeling techniques applied to hazardous waste site assessment and remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendez, W.M. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    Remediation of hazardous an mixed waste sites is often driven by assessments of human health risks posed by the exposures to hazardous substances released from these sites. The methods used to assess potential health risk involve, either implicitly or explicitly, models for pollutant releases, transport, human exposure and intake, and for characterizing health effects. Because knowledge about pollutant fate transport processes at most waste sites is quite limited, and data cost are quite high, most of the models currently used to assess risk, and endorsed by regulatory agencies, are quite simple. The models employ many simplifying assumptions about pollutant fate and distribution in the environment about human pollutant intake, and toxicologic responses to pollutant exposures. An important consequence of data scarcity and model simplification is that risk estimates are quite uncertain and estimates of the magnitude uncertainty associated with risk assessment has been very difficult. A number of methods have been developed to address the issue of uncertainty in risk assessments in a manner that realistically reflects uncertainty in model specification and data limitations. These methods include definition of multiple exposure scenarios, sensitivity analyses, and explicit probabilistic modeling of uncertainty. Recent developments in this area will be discussed, along with their possible impacts on remediation programs, and remaining obstacles to their wider use and acceptance by the scientific and regulatory communities

  18. Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

    1985-08-01

    This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly

  19. Risk-based approach in valuation of workplace injury rate for transportation and construction industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pykhtin, Kirill; Simankina, Tatiana; Sharmanov, Vladimir; Kopytova, Anna

    2017-10-01

    The danger of injuries and accidents in various industries such as transportation and construction urges the government to control the occupational health and safety more strictly. However, in order to do so with the minimal costs modern risk management tools, have to be implemented. Risk-based approach is an essential tool for competent risk- assessment and used in a great variety of other countries, demonstrating great results in providing of safe working environment. The article describes the problems that the implementation of the method faces in Russia and suggests certain ways to resolve them.

  20. Assessment of human and ecological risks from uranium and gold mining activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.; McKee, P.; Garisto, N.

    1995-01-01

    Forecasting of ecological and human health risk has been widely used in the uranium mining industry to support decisions regarding acceptability of proposed mine developments and mine closure plans. Probabilistic assessment has been less frequently used in other mining sectors where radiological issues are less prominent, but is now beginning to be more broadly applied. Case studies are presented to illustrate probabilistic approaches in opening and closing assessments of uranium and gold mines. Risks to man and biota from operational emissions (radionuclides, arsenic, cyanide) and risk reductions following mine closure are forecast using probabilistic models of chemical fate, transport and exposure. These forecasts permit selection of operational and closure alternatives which produce acceptably low risks

  1. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  2. RISK MANAGEMENT AS TRANSPORTATION SAFETY PROVISION INSTRUMENT IN RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Nikolayev

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Safety of transportation in Russia is subject to a variety of threats. Discussed in the article are characteristics of major threats to transportation security. State transportation policy directions that make it possible to ensure the security of cargo and passenger transportation are shown. A listof activities and innovative risk management tools that provide for improved safety of railway transportation is proposed.

  3. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (US); Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows{trademark} environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident.

  4. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.

    1995-11-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows trademark environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident

  5. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  6. Risk Assessment of the Main Control Room Fire Using Fire Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Dae Il; Kim, Kilyoo; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2013-01-01

    KAERI is performing a fire PSA for a reference plant, Ulchin Unit 3, as part of developing the Korean site risk profile (KSRP). Fire simulations of the MCR fire were conducted using the CFAST (Consolidated Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) model and FDS (fire dynamic simulator) to improve the uncertainty in the MCR fire risk analysis. Using the fire simulation results, the MCR abandonment risk was evaluated. Level 1 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment) results of Ulchin Unit 3 using the EPRI PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) implementation guide showed that the MCR (main control room) fire was the main contributor to the core damage frequency. Recently, U. S. NRC and EPRI developed NUREG/CR-6850 to provide state-of-the-art methods, tools, and data for the conduct of a fire PSA for a commercial NPP

  7. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  8. Proposal of risk evaluation methodology for hazardous materials transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, Luiz Carlos

    2009-01-01

    The increasing concern with the level of risk associated with the transportation of hazardous materials took some international institutions to pledge efforts in the evaluation of risk in regional level. Following this trend, the objective of this work was to analyze the most recent processes of analysis of risks from road transportation of hazardous materials. In the present work 21 methodologies of analysis of risks, developed by some authors and for diverse localities have been evaluated. Two of them, in special, have been reviewed and discussed: a method recently developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Nicolet-Monnier and Gheorghe, 1996) and the strategy delineated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety CCPS (1995), taking into consideration the estimate of the individual and social risk. Also, the models of Harwood et al. (1990) and of Ramos (1997), adapted by Hartman (2003) have been applied to the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo. The extension of these methodologies was explored, in order to find its advantages and disadvantages. As a study case the present work considered the ammonia transportation throughout two routes evaluating the reality of the roads of the state of Sao Paulo, including a significant parcel of evaluation in a densely populated area, getting the results using risk, at least, one of the methodologies mentioned above. The innovation proposed by this work was the research, the development and the introduction of two variables to the model considered by Harwood et al. (1990). These variables that influence in the value of the risk are: the age of the driver of truck and the zone of impact that is function type of product, period of the day where the transport was carried and the volume that has been transported. The aim of the proposed modifications is to let the value of the risk more sensible in relation to the type of the product carried and the age of the truck driver. The main related procedural stages

  9. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Geographic Resolution Issues in RAM Transport Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    2000-01-01

    Transport risk analyses based on the RADTRAN code have been met with continual demands for increased spatial resolution of variations in population densities and other parameters employed in the calculation of risk estimates for transport of radioactive material (RAM). With the advent of geographic information systems (GISs) large quantities of data required to describe transport routes, which may extend to hundreds of kilometers, with high resolution (e.g. 1 km segments) can be handled without inordinate expense. This capability has raised a question concerning the maximum resolution of available input data and compatibility with RADTRAN computational models. Quantitative examinations are presented of spatial resolution issues in the calculation of incident-free doses and accident dose risks. For incident-free calculations, the effect of decreasing route-segment length on accuracy, in view of the model employed, is examined, and means of reducing total data input to the RADTRAN calculations, without loss of meaningful resolution of population concentrations, are presented. In the case of accident-risk calculations, the ability to detail population density under very large dispersal plumes permits comparison of plume modelling to actual data. In both types of calculations, meaningful limits to geographic extent are suggested. (author)

  11. STRRAP system-A software for hazardous materials risk assessment and safe distances calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godoy, S.M.; Santa Cruz, A.S.M.; Scenna, N.J.

    2007-01-01

    This work presents a powerful computational tool (Stochastic Toxic Release Risk Assessment Package, STRRAP) useful in risk assessment and emergency planning (safe distance calculation), which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an emission or accidental release. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature, given a time horizon, (a season or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. STRRAP can be used for releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, rail, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (dense and light gases, particulate matter) is carried out, the downwind pollutant concentrations are obtained, in order to compute safe distances and/or individual and societal risks. Some study cases are analyzed to show STRRAP capabilities

  12. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  13. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  14. Issues related to the transport of a transportable storage cask after storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, P.; Brimhall, J.L.; Creer, J.M.; Gilbert, E.R.; Sanders, T.L.; Jones, R.H.

    1991-01-01

    An evaluation was performed to assess whether the reliability of a transportable storage cask system and the risks associated with its use are comparable to those associated with existing transport cask systems and, if they are not, determine how the transportable storage cask system can be made as reliable as existing systems. Reliability and failure mode analyses of both transport-only casks and transportable storage casks and implementation options are compared. Current knowledge regarding the potential effects of a long-term dry storage environment on spent fuel and cask materials is reviewed. A summary assessment of the consideration for deploying a transportable storage cask (TSC) system with emphasis on preliminary design, validation and operational recommendations for TSC implementations is presented. The analyses conclude that a transportable storage cask can likely be shipped upopened by applying a combination of design considerations and operational constraints, including environmental monitoring and pretransport assessments of functional reliability of the cask. A proper mix of these constraints should yield risk parity with any existing transport cask

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  16. A probabilistic risk-analysis of the transport of small radioactive material type B packages in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.; Pages, P.

    1982-01-01

    The assessment of the accidental risk due to the road transportation of a small package containing γ-ray emitters is performed in France. Analyzing records of road transportation accidents, modeling the package behaviour and estimating the importance of the involved population are the three main steps of the study. The interest of such an anlysis relies on the relative simplicity of the model and the availability of statistical data. This allows modelling of the whole process and study of the various sensitivities. It is also of pratical interest when assessing the cost-effectiveness of some safety/protection measures

  17. Environmental Justice Assessment for Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-01-01

    Application of Executive Order 12898 to risk assessment of highway or rail transport of hazardous materials has proven difficult; the location and conditions affecting the propagation of a plume of hazardous material released in a potential accident are unknown, in general. Therefore, analyses have only been possible in geographically broad or approximate manner. The advent of geographic information systems and development of software enhancements at Sandia National Laboratories have made kilometer-by-kilometer analysis of populations tallied by U.S. Census Blocks along entire routes practicable. Tabulations of total, or racially/ethnically distinct, populations close to a route, its alternatives, or the broader surrounding area, can then be compared and differences evaluated statistically. This paper presents methods of comparing populations and their racial/ethnic compositions using simple tabulations, histograms and Chi Squared tests for statistical significance of differences found. Two examples of these methods are presented: comparison of two routes and comparison of a route with its surroundings

  18. Practical consequences of the assessment of different energy health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    Public authorities must make decisions about energy, and the risks of alternative strategies need to be calculated including health and environmental costs. Information from various sources must be organized into a logical framework for comparing impacts. This must include the widest practicable range of health and environmental damage - public health impact of pollution, role of accidents, disease and hazardous materials in the workplace, and odds for catastrophes. It must put each part of the energy cycle into perspective - giving particular attention to uncertainties in knowledge - to convey what is known, what is uncertain, and the importance of each factor in the overall picture. This paper gives examples of the use of health-impact assessment by decision-makers: (1) comparative risk assessment of the health effects of coal and nuclear fuel cycles used in nuclear power plant siting and licensing hearings, and (2) health risks of acid deposition and other air-transported pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment for the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. (author)

  19. Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...

  20. Environmental assessment of heavy metal transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Hongwei; Huang, Lei; Wang, Jingyu; He, Guojian [The State Key Laboratory of Hydro Science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Reible, Danny, E-mail: danny.reible@ttu.edu [Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-1023 (United States)

    2016-01-25

    Highlights: • An integrated model of hydrodynamics, sediment and heavy metal transport. • Simulated heavy metal transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay. • Evaluated accidental discharge of {sup 137}Cs from the QFNPP was assumed. • The sediment effects on the mobility of heavy metals were analyzed. - Abstract: The environmental impact of heavy metal (Cu, Cd, Zn, Pb, Ni, {sup 90}Sr and {sup 137}Cs) transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay (China) was assessed through a comprehensive model that integrates hydrodynamics, sediment and heavy metal transport. A mechanistic surface complexation model was used to estimate the adsorption and desorption of heavy metal by suspended sediment under different aqueous chemistry conditions. The dynamics of metal exchange to and from the seabed was also assessed. The primary processes regulating heavy metal distribution, i.e., convection–diffusion, adsorption–desorption, sedimentation–resuspension, as well as other physical and chemical processes related to mass exchange between adjacent sediment layers, were considered in detail. The accidental discharge of {sup 137}Cs was simulated as an example and results showed that {sup 137}Cs transported along the coast driven by tidal flow. Most {sup 137}Cs distributed near the outfall and accumulated in the seabed sediment. The proposed model can be a useful tool for predicting heavy metal transport and fate and provide a theoretical basis to guide field sampling, assessment of risks and the design of remediation strategies.

  1. Environmental assessment of heavy metal transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Hongwei; Huang, Lei; Wang, Jingyu; He, Guojian; Reible, Danny

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated model of hydrodynamics, sediment and heavy metal transport. • Simulated heavy metal transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay. • Evaluated accidental discharge of "1"3"7Cs from the QFNPP was assumed. • The sediment effects on the mobility of heavy metals were analyzed. - Abstract: The environmental impact of heavy metal (Cu, Cd, Zn, Pb, Ni, "9"0Sr and "1"3"7Cs) transport and transformation in the Hangzhou Bay (China) was assessed through a comprehensive model that integrates hydrodynamics, sediment and heavy metal transport. A mechanistic surface complexation model was used to estimate the adsorption and desorption of heavy metal by suspended sediment under different aqueous chemistry conditions. The dynamics of metal exchange to and from the seabed was also assessed. The primary processes regulating heavy metal distribution, i.e., convection–diffusion, adsorption–desorption, sedimentation–resuspension, as well as other physical and chemical processes related to mass exchange between adjacent sediment layers, were considered in detail. The accidental discharge of "1"3"7Cs was simulated as an example and results showed that "1"3"7Cs transported along the coast driven by tidal flow. Most "1"3"7Cs distributed near the outfall and accumulated in the seabed sediment. The proposed model can be a useful tool for predicting heavy metal transport and fate and provide a theoretical basis to guide field sampling, assessment of risks and the design of remediation strategies.

  2. Technology assessments in transportation: survey of recent literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaBelle, S.J.

    1980-03-01

    A survey and an evaluation of recent studies of transportation systems done in a technology-assessment framework were undertaken as the basis for a detailed statement of work for a US Department of Energy technology assessment of transportation energy-conservation strategies. Several bibliographies were searched and numerous professionals in the field of technology assessment were contacted regarding current work. Detailed abstracts were prepared for studies judged to be sufficiently broad in coverage of impacts assessed, yet detailed in coverage of all or part of the nation's transportation systems. Some studies were rich in data but not comprehensive in their analytical approach; brief abstracts were prepared for these. An explanation of the criteria used to screen the studies, as well as abstracts of 37 reports, are provided in this compendium of transportation-technology-assessment literature.

  3. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  4. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  5. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  8. Comparative Health Risk Assessment of CdTe Solar PV System and Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    In terms of national energy policy decision-making process, several key factors, including low production cost, negligible risk or impact to environment and population around the facility, must be considered. The purpose of this paper is to assess the public health risk in case of postulated nuclear power plant and CdTe solar PV system accident and compare the estimated public health risk. Both systems release toxic materials to the environment which adversely affect nearby population by exposure from the inhalation and ingestion of the toxic material transported via air. By simulating the airborne transport of released toxic material using Gaussian plume model and modeling exposure pathways to nearby population, average individual health risk is assessed and public health risk per power capacity of each system is compared. The result shows that the average public health risk per power capacity of NPP is less than the case of solar PV system. This implies that NPP has lower risk in terms of public health risk in case of severe accident while it can be used as more reliable energy source than renewable energy source so that NPP would take priority over other renewable energy sources in terms of national energy policy

  9. Radiological risks of transports to central waste management facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.

    1997-01-01

    Transports of radioactive waste from nuclear facilities have been a matter of frequent public concern in the recent past. News reports, protests and questions concerning the radiological risk tended to concentrate on transports to and from central waste management facilities, e.g. transports of spent fuel elements to reprocessing plants abroad (France, England), transports to intermediate storage sites (Ahaus, Gorleben), transports to operative (Morsleben) and projected (Konrad) final storage sites, and transports of vitrified high-activity waste from reprocessing plants to the intermediate storage site (Gorleben). (orig.) [de

  10. BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

    2016-01-01

    The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

  11. An integrated risk communication system for the transport of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minor, J.W. IV; Abkowitz, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the development and implementation of the prototype of an an internet-based, risk communication system prototype for the transport of hazardous materials. The system was designed with the objectives of: (1) incorporating functionality and features that are useful for meeting a variety of risk communication needs, and (2) demonstrating a high degree of interaction among system components, enabling customisation to meet the specific transport risk communication needs requirements of the host organisation. To demonstrate 'proof of concept', the system is applied to two scenarios: 1) building knowledge and awareness, focusing on how information can be entered, organised and disseminated to the public and other transport stakeholders, and 2) emergency management, utilising the system for securely managing information in responding to a transport incident involving hazardous materials transport incident. The effectiveness of the system in these applications is subsequently discussed. (author)

  12. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  13. The transport of plutonium industry in France. A high risk activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coeytaux, X.; Faid, Y.B.; Hazemann, J.; Marignac, Y.; Schneider, M.

    2003-02-01

    According to the estimations of the report more than 450 transport of materials including about 40 tons of plutonium circulate in France during one year. The nuclear matters transported are a source of danger. The risks in relation with the handling and transport of plutonium touch the criticality risk, its great toxicity, and the problem of proliferation. To these risks it is necessary to add terrorists attacks. Three scenarios of accidents have been developed to illustrate the risk potential. A scenario of train accident, with derailment in a tunnel then crash with an other train; a simple scenario occurring to a lorry of plutonium powder; then a scenario of an accident following a terrorist act. These scenarios should be studied by I.R.S.N and the results should be given to the public and to elected people confronted to the transport of plutonium. (N.C.)

  14. Sandia Transportation Technical Environmental Information Center and its application to transportation risk analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, J.T.; Davidson, C.A.; McClure, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    Purpose of this paper is to describe an applied research activity which is fundamental to the conduct of transportation analyses: the collection, analysis, storage, and retrieval of information on the intensities of technical environments. This paper describes the collection system which provides such a service to official researchers in transportation analysis and the applications of this information in the area of risk analysis

  15. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  16. Assessment of Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: The CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Banister, David

    2009-01-01

    use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework......This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce...... interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction...

  17. Risk assessment related to manual handling on choosen work possition in foundry Alstom Power Sp. z o. o.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Kowal

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Manual handling remains one of the different types of transport inside working place, although technological progress and modernorganization of work. Manual transport as a transport inside working place is related to foundry industry. According to polish lawregulations employer has to give consideration to manual handling in professional risk assessment and introduce actions for manualhandling reduction. In Foundry Elblag case there is found that in many processes manual handling are made by workers. For example wecan choose melting processes (additives manual feeding, mixing and pulling metallurgical slag, etc. or fettling processes like grinding.Objective of that analysis was to define level of risk related to manual handling in work stand chosen and define activities impacted onrisk assessment result with biggest range. For risk reduction, technical and organizational solutions were shown (better ergonomically work stand, method of work and worker’s awareness about good practices. In this study methods related to manual handling risk assessment were described, focus on KIM method used in Foundry Elblag. Key Item Method allow to estimate the risk by simple calculation based on key indicators (time rating points, rating points of mass, posture or work condition. Points were chosen based on timekeeping, information from workers and foreman.

  18. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  19. Health risk assessment based on injection of upgraded biogas in natural gas grid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leroux, C.; Modelon, H.; Rousselle, C.; Zdanevitch, I.; Evanno, S.

    2010-01-01

    This document presents the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health Safety (AFSSET). Results are based on a collective expertise conducted to assess health risks associated with the injection of biogas in the natural gas grid. The complete assessment is published and available on the web site of the Agency; only the major results are presented in this document. Following recommendations issued by AFSSET in 2008, a new study has been initiated to collect and analyze data on the composition of biogas from sewage sludge. The French National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) is in charge of this project. The data will be used to assess the accidental risks (resulting from the upgrading of biogas, transport by pipeline and utilization for energy purposes) and health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas grid). (authors)

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  2. Adverse events during air and ground neonatal transport: 13 years' experience from a neonatal transport team in Northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Johannes; Olsson, Linn; Svensson, Amelie; Håkansson, Stellan

    2015-07-01

    To study the prevalence of adverse events (AEs) associated with neonatal transport, and to categorize, classify and assess the risk estimation of these events. Written comments in 1082 transport records during the period 1999-2011 were reviewed. Comments related to events that infringed on patient and staff safety were included as AEs, and categorized and further classified as complaint, imminent risk of incident/negative event, actual incident or actual negative event. AEs were also grouped into emergency or planned transports, and risk estimation was calculated according to a risk assessment tool and defined as low, intermediate, high or extreme risk. AEs (N = 883) were divided into five categories: logistics (n = 337), organization (n = 177), equipment (n = 165), vehicle (n = 129) and medical/nursing care (n = 75). Eighty-five percent of AEs were classified as incidents or negative events. The majority of AEs were estimated to be of low or intermediate risk in both planned and emergency transports. AEs estimated to be of high or extreme risk were significantly more frequent in emergency transports (OR = 10.1; 95% CI: 5.0-20.9; p transport, often related to imperfect transport logistics or equipment failure. AEs of high or extreme risk were more frequent in emergency transports.

  3. Yucca Mountain transportation routes: Preliminary characterization and risk analysis; Volume 2, Figures [and] Volume 3, Technical Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souleyrette, R.R. II; Sathisan, S.K.; di Bartolo, R. [Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV (United States). Transportation Research Center

    1991-05-31

    This report presents appendices related to the preliminary assessment and risk analysis for high-level radioactive waste transportation routes to the proposed Yucca Mountain Project repository. Information includes data on population density, traffic volume, ecologically sensitive areas, and accident history.

  4. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

    2009-01-01

    Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

  5. Simultaneous Assessment of Transporter-Mediated Drug-Drug Interactions Using a Probe Drug Cocktail in Cynomolgus Monkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosa, Rachel E; Lazzaro, Sarah; Bi, Yi-An; Tierney, Brendan; Gates, Dana; Modi, Sweta; Costales, Chester; Rodrigues, A David; Tremaine, Larry M; Varma, Manthena V

    2018-06-07

    We aim to establish an in vivo preclinical model to enable simultaneous assessment of inhibition potential of an investigational drug on clinically relevant drug transporters, organic anion transporting polypeptide (OATP)1B, breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP), P-glycoprotein (P-gp) and organic anion transporter (OAT)3. Pharmacokinetics of substrate cocktail consisting of pitavastatin (OATP1B substrate), rosuvastatin (OATP1B/BCRP/OAT3), sulfasalazine (BCRP) and talinolol (P-gp) were obtained in cynomolgus monkey - alone or in combination with transporter inhibitors. Single dose rifampicin (30 mg/kg) significantly (pdrugs, with a marked effect on pitavastatin and rosuvastatin (AUC ratio ~21-39). Elacridar, BCRP/P-gp inhibitor, increased the AUC of sulfasalazine, talinolol, as well as rosuvastatin and pitavastatin. An OAT1/3 inhibitor (probenecid) significantly (pdrug-drug interaction risk assessment, before advancing a new molecular entity into clinical development, as well as providing mechanistic insights on transporter-mediated interactions. The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  6. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

  7. Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...

  8. Simplified risk assessment for transporting ATR spent fuel within the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, E.M.; Courtney, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    Interest in characterizing the condition of stored spent fuels has generated the need to move spent fuels to hot cell facilities within the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). A simplified probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an evaluation of the radiological consequences in the event of an accident are discussed and applied to on-site Advanced Test Reactor (AYR) spent fuel shipments. Reported accident probabilities between 10 -4 and 10 -6 and low radiological consequences, affords this, and other spent fuel characterization efforts, an additional option to move spent fuels within the INEL

  9. Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

  10. Storage and transport of hazardous materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, P.; Haferkamp, K.

    1986-01-01

    The attempt has been made to characterise the present risk scenario, and to set out approaches or methods for remedy and risk control. For this purpose, a retrospective analysis has been made of accidents, damage and consequential damage that occurred in the past either during storage of hazardous materials, or during road transport. A risk-benefit model facilitates assessment of accident frequency. The history of accidents during storage or transport allows assessment of the dangerousness of various materials. Another important aspect discussed is the property and behaviour of containers used for storage or transport. (DG) [de

  11. Truck transport of RAM: Risk effects of avoiding metropolitan areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1997-11-01

    In the transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), stakeholders are generally most concerned about risks in high population density areas along transportation routes because of the perceived high consequences of potential accidents. The most significant portions of a transcontinental route and an alternative examined previously were evaluated again using population density data derived from US Census Block data. This method of characterizing population that adjoins route segments offers improved resolution of population density variations, especially in high population density areas along typical transport routes. Calculated incident free doses and accident dose risks for these routes, and the rural, suburban and urban segments are presented for comparison of their relative magnitudes. The results indicate that modification of this route to avoid major metropolitan areas through use of non-Interstate highways increases total risk yet does not eliminate a relatively small urban component of the accident dose risk. This conclusion is not altered by improved resolution of route segments adjoining high density populations

  12. Introduction to CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk investigation system for assessing atmospheric releases of radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.; Kocher, D.C.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Murphy, B.D.

    1985-08-01

    The CRRIS is a Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System consisting of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may also be used alone for various assessment applications. Radionuclides are handled by the CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that grow in during environmental transport. The CRRIS is not designed to simulate short-term effects. 51 refs

  13. Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Cervone

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms are used to perform statistical and logical analysis of several transport and dispersion model runs which simulate emissions from a fixed source under different atmospheric conditions.

    First, a clustering algorithm is used to automatically group the results of different transport and dispersion simulations according to specific cloud characteristics. Then, a symbolic classification algorithm is employed to find complex non-linear relationships between the meteorological input conditions and each cluster of clouds. The patterns discovered are provided in the form of probabilistic measures of contamination, thus suitable for result interpretation and dissemination.

    The learned patterns can be used for quick assessment of the areas at risk and of the fate of potentially hazardous contaminants released in the atmosphere.

  14. Use of ecological exposure units in ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferenbaugh, R.; Myers, O.; Gallegos, A.; Breshears, D.; Ebinger, M.

    1995-01-01

    The traditional approach to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites that are being evaluated for cleanup under CERCLA or RCRA requirements is to focus on the immediate impacts at or adjacent to a site. While this may be acceptable in some situations, it is not ecologically defensible in situations where there are numerous contaminated sites in proximity to each other. In the latter case, transport from the sites, potential cumulative effects, and wide-ranging receptors must be considered. The concept of the Ecological Exposure Unit (EEU) has been proposed to address this situation. Ecological Exposure Units are defined on the basis of ecological considerations and each EEU may contain several to many contaminated sites. The initial steps involved in performing ecological risk assessments using the EEU approach include (1) selection of appropriate receptors and assessment endpoints, and (2) geographical definition of EEUs. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, receptors have been identified and EEUs have been defined for these receptors. GIS is being used as a tool to map EEUs. Receptors include representatives from threatened or endangered species, species reflecting status of ecological health, species with social or cultural relevance, and other species of concern. After definition of EEUs, cumulative impacts of all stressors at all sites within each EEU must be evaluated. The two major advantages to performing ecological risk assessments using this approach are that risk assessments are performed in a more scientifically defensible manner because they are performed on ecologically defined units and that resources are used optimally by minimizing redundant remedial activities

  15. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Risk analysis of transporting vitrified high-level radioactive waste by train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, K.A.; Merz, E.

    1983-01-01

    Reprocessing plants (RPPs) and final disposal sites for vitrified high level radioactive waste (HLW) will be at distant locations in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). HLW will also have to be shipped from RPPs located in foreign countries to a final disposal site in the FRG. Thus transportation of HLW on public routes will become necessary. A model of an HLW shipping system is presented which meets the needs of an established nuclear industry. Reference ages of the HLW were assumed to range between about 5 years and about 50 years. Thus HLW shipping systems covering this period are analyzed. The safety of nuclear installations is ensured by means of a design according to the design based accident. The same applies to shipping casks for radioactive materials (RAM) according to the IAEA Regulations. The aim of this work was to make as complete as reasonably possible an estimate of the risk of shipping HLW. The safety of the system was therefore analyzed by means of probabilistic risk assessment. Release of radioactive material due to transportation accidents is considered. 5 references, 5 figures, 6 tables

  17. Analysis of the risk of transporting spent nuclear fuel by train

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, H.K.

    1981-09-01

    This report uses risk analyses to analyze the safety of transporting spent nuclear fuel for commercial rail shipping systems. The rail systems analyzed are those expected to be used in the United States when the total electricity-generating capacity by nuclear reactors is 100 GW in the late 1980s. Risk as used in this report is the product of the probability of a release of material to the environment and the consequences resulting from the release. The analysis includes risks in terms of expected fatalities from release of radioactive materials due to transportation accidents involving PWR spent fuel shipped in rail casks. The expected total risk from such shipments is 1.3 x 10/sup -4/ fatalities per year. Risk spectrums are developed for shipments of spent fuel that are 180 days and 4 years out-of-reactor. The risk from transporting spent fuel by train is much less (by 2 to 4 orders of magnitude) than the risk to society from other man-caused events such as dam failure.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  19. Risk Assessment for Public Health from Transportation Noise (on the example of the city of Belgorod)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeykin, A. Yu

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, an assessment, modelling and calculation of risks for the health of the population of the Southern district of Belgorod was carried out. The study included acoustic calculations carried out on the territory of the assessment within the boundaries of the settlement area of the rectangle with the square 6.72 km2, where about 80000 residents live. As a result of computational and instrumental data 4 zones with different levels of potential chronic acoustic impact on the population were allocated. With the use of mathematical models of risk the trend of the formation of moderate and high risk was determined in certain areas within the boundaries of the territory. It is shown that 65% of the residents of the district live in conditions of moderate health risks and about 9% - in conditions of a high risk of developing health disorders from the effects of noise (disorders of the nervous system, hearing and the cardiovascular system).

  20. Myanmar Transport Sector Initial Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Asian Development Bank (ADB)

    2012-01-01

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is preparing sector assessments to help align future ADB support with the needs and strategies of developing member countries and other development partners. The assessment is a working document that helps inform the development of country partnership strategies. This transport sector assessment highlights development issues, needs, and strategic assistance priorities of the Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and ADB, with a focus on rail, road...

  1. Reducing The Risk Of Fires In Conveyor Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheremushkina, M. S.; Poddubniy, D. A.

    2017-01-01

    The paper deals with the actual problem of increasing the safety of operation of belt conveyors in mines. Was developed the control algorithm that meets the technical requirements of the mine belt conveyors, reduces the risk of fires of conveyors belt, and enables energy and resource savings taking into account random sort of traffic. The most effective method of decision such tasks is the construction of control systems with the use of variable speed drives for asynchronous motors. Was designed the mathematical model of the system "variable speed multiengine drive - conveyor - control system of conveyors", that takes into account the dynamic processes occurring in the elements of the transport system, provides an assessment of the energy efficiency of application the developed algorithms, which allows to reduce the dynamic overload in the belt to (15-20)%.

  2. NWMO transportation technical work program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatton, C.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes technical work program for the transportation nuclear waste by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO). Transportation work program involves risk assessment which under normal conditions involves dose assessment to the worker and the public as well as consideration of transportation system routing and operations. It also involves possible accident scenarios using forensic modelling and probability analysis.

  3. NWMO transportation technical work program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hatton, C. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    This paper describes technical work program for the transportation nuclear waste by the Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO). Transportation work program involves risk assessment which under normal conditions involves dose assessment to the worker and the public as well as consideration of transportation system routing and operations. It also involves possible accident scenarios using forensic modelling and probability analysis.

  4. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  5. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-02-28

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

  6. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  7. Transportation of hazardous materials emergency preparedness hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  8. Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    considered under RMAT, expanding the range of attack pathways available to attackers, and inclusion of off-airport freight pro- cessing, catering ...perspectives on risk from Boeing and from consultations with Randy Harris of Delta Airlines , Eric Thacker of the Air Transport Association, and Chris...multiple first-class airline tickets) and, as a result, less attractive than publicly available information, which is relatively inexpensive. It

  9. A possibilistic analysis approach for environmental risk assessment of petroleum-contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Huang, G.H.; Fuller, G.A.

    1999-01-01

    A possibilistic approach for assessing risks associated with petroleum-contaminated sites is provided. The approach is applied to an illustrative case study in order to show its applicability and implementation for decision making in effective site remediation and management. The approach consists of three main parts: (1) the determination of fuzzy steady state contaminant concentrations in a aquifer based on an analytical solute transport model; (2) possibilistic analysis of fuzzy criteria for different risk levels; and (3) environmental risk assessment based on the Euclidian method. Based on results from an illustrative case study, environmental risks at a petroleum-contaminated site can be effectively evaluated using the developed methodology. The risk assessment framework can effectively handle uncertainities presented as fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy nature of water quality and risk level criteria were seen in the related simulation and evaluation models, and the framework is especially useful for situations in which probabilistic information is not available. This use of this approach is new in the area of petroleum waste management under uncertainty, and its results are useful for the related site remediation and management decisions. 36 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  11. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  12. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  13. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  14. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  15. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  16. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  17. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  18. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  19. CRRIS, Health Risk Assessment from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and the RETADD-II computer code regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides. 2 - Method of solution: SUMIT performs geometric interpolation. TERRA and MLSOIL are terrestrial transport compartment models. DFSOIL computes soil-layer-specific dose factors based on the point-kernel method

  20. Implementing atmospheric fate in regulatory risk assessment of pesticides: (How) can it be done?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, D.J.; Gilbert, A.J.; Gottschild, D.; Kuchnicki, T.; Laane, R.W.P.M.; Linders, J.B.H.J.; Meent, D. van de; Montforts, M.H.M.M.; Pino, J.; Pol, J.W.; Straalen, N.M. van

    1999-01-01

    Atmospheric fate of pesticides and their possible effects in ecosystems beyond the immediate surrounding of the application site are not actively considered in currently used regulatory, risk assessment schemes. Concern with respect to atmospheric transport and subsequent deposition of pesticides in

  1. Implementing atmospheric fate in regulatory risk assessment of pesticides: (how) can it be done?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, D.J.; Gilbert, A.J.; Gottschild, D.; Kuchnicki, T.; Laane, R.W.P.M.; Linders, J.B.H.J.; van de Meent, D.; Montforts, M.H.M.M.; Pino, J.; Pol, J.W.; van Straalen, N.M.

    1999-01-01

    Atmospheric fate of pesticides and their possible effects in ecosystems beyond the immediate surrounding of the application site are not actively considered in currently used regulatory, risk assessment schemes. Concern with respect to atmospheric transport and subsequent deposition of pesticides in

  2. CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-06-01

    This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department

  3. Factors for assessment of human health risk associated with remedial action at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.E.; King, C.M.; Looney, B.B.; Holmes, W.G.; Gordon, D.E.

    1985-01-01

    A risk assessment strategy that is cost effective and minimized human health risks was developed for closure of hazardous waste sites at the Savannah River Plant. The strategy consists of (1) site characterization, (2) contaminant transport modeling, and (3) determination of relative merits of alternative remedial actions according to the degree of health protection they provide

  4. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y, Orchard Park, NY (United States); Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Rothman, R. [USDOE Idaho Field Office, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors.

  5. RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors

  6. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  7. Spent fuel transport in Romania by road: An approach considering safety, risk and radiological consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieru, G.

    2001-01-01

    The transport of high-level radioactive wastes, involving Type B packages, is a part of the safety of the Romanian waste management programme and the overall aim of this activity is to promote the safe transport of radioactive materials in Romania. The paper presents a safety case analysis of the transport of a single spent fuel CANDU bundle, using a Romanian built Type B package, from the CANDU type nuclear power plant Cernavoda to the INR Pitesti, in order to be examined within INR's hot-cells facilities. The safety assessment includes the following main aspects: (1) evaluation and analysis of available data on road traffic accidents; (2) estimation of the expected frequency for severe road accident scenarios resulting in potential radionuclide release; and (3) evaluation of the expected radiological consequences and accident risks of transport operations. (author)

  8. A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamshidi, Ali; Faghih-Roohi, Shahrzad; Hajizadeh, Siamak; Núñez, Alfredo; Babuska, Robert; Dollevoet, Rolf; Li, Zili; De Schutter, Bart

    2017-08-01

    Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the failure risk. For the assessment of the rail failure risk, we estimate the probability of rail failure based on the growth of squats. Moreover, we perform severity and crack growth analyses to consider the impact of rail traffic loads on defects in three different growth scenarios. The failure risk estimations are provided for several samples of squats with different crack growth lengths on a busy rail track of the Dutch railway network. The results illustrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. The American Petroleum Institute's Decision Support System for performing exposure and risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spence, L.R.

    1994-01-01

    The author has developed the American Petroleum Institute's (API) Exposure and Risk Assessment Decision Support System (DSS) to assist environmental professionals in estimating human exposure and risk from sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons. The DSS is a valuable, user-friendly tool that can be used to (1) estimate site-specific risks, (2) identify the need for site remediation, (3) develop and negotiate site-specific cleanup levels with regulatory agencies, and (4) efficiently and effectively evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and variability on estimated risk. API DSS Version 1.0 consists of four modules. Specifically, the Development of Risk Scenario module allows the user to develop a conceptual model for estimating the risk. The Fate and Transport module includes a number of contaminant fate and transport models to estimate receptor point concentrations using site-specific hydrogeological and meteorological data entered by the user. The Chemical Intake and Risk Calculation module uses estimated or user-entered receptor point concentrations to estimate chemical intake by a human receptor for several different exposure routes. Finally, the Risk Presentation module allows the user to view the results of the analysis in tabular and graphical formats. The DSS includes chemical databases for 25 hydrocarbons containing transport and toxicity information. These databases may be expanded to include many additional (non-hydrocarbon) chemicals. The computational modules of the DSS can be implemented in either a deterministic or a Monte Carlo simulation mode. The latter is used to quantify the uncertainty in the exposure and risk results due to uncertainty in the input parameters

  10. The Adaptation of Ways and Methods of Risk Minimization in Local Payment Systems in Public Transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdaev Mausar Yushaevich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problems of risk management gain special relevance in the conditions of payment systems development in public passenger transport in Russia. The risk carriers as well as the sources of their occurrence are revealed; the characteristics of private risks of individual participants in the system of public passenger transport are presented. The directions of risk management in relation to the payment system in public transport are reasoned and structured. It is proved that the choice of specific ways to minimize the risks in local payment systems in public transport is conditioned by the following factors – the nature of the payment system integration in public transport areas, the temporary nature of risk components effect due to the improvement of organizational, economic and technological factors, the change of the stages of payment systems development, the evaluation of risks effects. The article reasons the possibility of using and adjusting traditional ways (risk evasion, risk compensation, decrease in risk level, risk transfer, distribution of risk between participants and the methods of risk management in the payment systems in public transport according to the stages of their development and functioning for the processing center, passenger motor transport organizations, financial center and passengers (payers. The authors justify the directions of integrating the local payment systems of public transport in the national payment system, taking into account the risks involved in the activity of its members.

  11. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  13. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  14. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  15. A preliminary analysis of the risk of transporting nuclear waste to potential candidate commercial repository sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madsen, M.M.

    1984-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, environmental assessments for potential candidate sites are required to provide a basis for selection of the first site for disposal of commercial radioactive waste in deep geologic repositories. A preliminary analysis of the impacts of transportation for each of the five potential sites will be described. Transportation was assumed to be entirely by truck or entirely by rail in order to obtain bounding impacts. This paper presents both radiological and nonradiological risks for the once-through fuel cycle

  16. Predicting transporter-mediated drug interactions: Commentary on: "Pharmacokinetic evaluation of a drug transporter cocktail consisting of digoxin, furosemide, metformin and rosuvastatin" and "Validation of a microdose probe drug cocktail for clinical drug interaction assessments for drug transporters and CYP3A".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L; Sparreboom, A

    2017-04-01

    Transporters, expressed in various tissues, govern the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of drugs, and consequently their inherent safety and efficacy profiles. Drugs may interact with a transporter as a substrate and/or an inhibitor. Understanding transporter-mediated drug-drug interactions (DDIs), in addition to enzyme-mediated DDIs, is an integral part of risk assessment in drug development and regulatory review because the concomitant use of more than one medication in patients is common. © 2016 ASCPT.

  17. From risk analysis to risk control in land transport of dangerous materials. Contribution of quantitative evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1985-03-01

    The different approaches of risks and risk management system are described: statistics, potential risk, prevention, information and intervention. Quantitative evaluation is developed: data collection, purposes and methods. Two examples of application are given on risks associated to road transport of propane and of uranium hexafluoride. In conclusion level of risk and practical use of studies on risks are examined. 41 refs [fr

  18. Assessment of thermal load on transported goats administered with ascorbic acid during the hot-dry conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minka, N. S.; Ayo, J. O.

    2012-03-01

    The major factor in the induction of physiological stress during road transportation of livestock is the complex fluctuations of the thermal transport microenvironment, encountered when animals are transported across different ecological zones. Recommended guidelines on optimum "on-board" conditions in which goats should be transported are lacking, and there are no acceptable ranges and limits for the thermal loads to which goats may be subjected during long-distance road transportation in hot-dry conditions. Panting score (PS), rectal temperature (RT), heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) were employed as reliable stress indices to assess the effects of different thermal loads, measured as temperature humidity index (THI), encountered in the vehicle during 12 h of road transportation of 40 goats, and to suggest the administration of 100 mg/kg body weight of ascorbic acid (AA) as an ameliorating agent. The results obtained showed that the PS, RT, HR and RR rose above normal reference values with increase in the THI and journey duration. The rise in PS value, which is a visual indicator of the severity of thermal load, was the most pronounced. The results suggest that values of THI in the vehicle up to 94.6 constitute no risk, while at of 100 it presents a moderate risk and above 100 may result in severe stress. The relationships between the thermal load and the physiological variables were positive and significant ( P goats. The results demonstrated that administration of 100 mg/kg body weight of AA before road transportation mitigated the risk of adverse effects of high THI values and other stress factors due to road transportation in goats.

  19. Can Bayesian Belief Networks help tackling conceptual model uncertainties in contaminated site risk assessment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Mads; Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; McKnight, Ursula S.

    different conceptual models may describe the same contaminated site equally well. In many cases, conceptual model uncertainty has been shown to be one of the dominant sources for uncertainty and is therefore essential to account for when quantifying uncertainties in risk assessments. We present here......A key component in risk assessment of contaminated sites is the formulation of a conceptual site model. The conceptual model is a simplified representation of reality and forms the basis for the mathematical modelling of contaminant fate and transport at the site. A conceptual model should...... a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach for evaluating the uncertainty in risk assessment of groundwater contamination from contaminated sites. The approach accounts for conceptual model uncertainty by considering multiple conceptual models, each of which represents an alternative interpretation of the site...

  20. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  1. Assessment of sustainable urban transport development based on entropy and unascertained measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yancang; Yang, Jing; Shi, Huawang; Li, Yijie

    2017-01-01

    To find a more effective method for the assessment of sustainable urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment model of sustainable urban transport development was established based on the unascertained measure. On the basis of considering the factors influencing urban transport development, the comprehensive assessment indexes were selected, including urban economical development, transport demand, environment quality and energy consumption, and the assessment system of sustainable urban transport development was proposed. In view of different influencing factors of urban transport development, the index weight was calculated through the entropy weight coefficient method. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were conducted according to the actual condition. Then, the grade was obtained by using the credible degree recognition criterion from which the urban transport development level can be determined. Finally, a comprehensive assessment method for urban transport development was introduced. The application practice showed that the method can be used reasonably and effectively for the comprehensive assessment of urban transport development.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymer, P.; Kaiser, G.D.; Mc Kelvey, T.C.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  3. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  4. Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat a literature survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zafer YILMAZ

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available ransportation has a great role in logistics. Many researchers have studied on transportation and vehicle routing problems. Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat is a special subject for logistics. Causalities due to the accidents caused by trucks carrying hazardous materials will be intolerable. Many researchers have studied on risk assessment of hazmat transportation to find ways for reducing hazardous material transportation risks. Some researchers have studied routing of hazmat trucks. The emergency response models and network design problems for hazmat transportation were also studied by some researchers. The transportation of hazmats can also be classified according to the mode of transport. Mainly roads are used for hazmat transportation but some shipments are intermodal. There has been a great amount of effort spent to find convenient ways for hazmat transportation. In this study, a literature survey for the articles about hazmat transportation is prepared. After pointing out the importance of hazmat transportation by the example of US hazmat transportation data, the studies on hazmat transportation since 2005 have been examined. Totally 88 articles are classified as risk, routing, routing and scheduling, emergency response, network design and accident analysis. What can be studied in future researches is pointed out.Keywords: Hazardous materials, Network design, Transportation, Routing, Risk assessment

  5. District file of major risks for the Moselle district: B6 - The nuclear risk; B7 - The risk related to radioactive material transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-10-01

    A first document addresses the nuclear risk with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for people and for the environment with an indication of exposure thresholds, presentation of individual safety directives), a discussion of the nuclear risk level in the district (history, contamination threats, preventive actions for the Cattenom nuclear plant, existence of a triple barrier for radioactive product containment, other factors aimed at nuclear safety, urban development control, control of nuclear activities, information, rescue organisation, map of concerned communes). The second document addresses the risk related to radioactive material transport with some generalities (definition, occurrence, consequences for persons and goods, individual safety directive in case of road or railway accident), a more detailed analysis of the risk in the district (situation of the radioactive material transport in the district, risk history, human and environmental stakes, preventive actions, radiation protection safety challenges, safety factors, control of transports, rescue organisation)

  6. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  8. Atmospheric transport and deposition of pesticides: An assessment of current knowledge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pul, W.A.J. van; Bidleman, T.F.; Brorström-Lunden, E.

    1999-01-01

    The current knowledge on atmospheric transport and deposition of pesticides is reviewed and discussed by a working group of experts during the Workshop on Fate of pesticides in the atmosphere; implications for risk assessment, held in Driebergen, the Netherlands, 22-24 April, 1998. In general...... in the exchange processes at the interface between air and soil/water/vegetation. In all process descriptions the uncertainty in the physicochemical properties play an important role. Particularly those in the vapour pressure, Henry's law constant and its temperature dependency. More accurate data...

  9. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  10. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  11. Matrix logistics indicators assessment of distributed transport hub

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Arefyev

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The paper is devoted to the distributed transport hub substantiation and assessment. The paper  was an example of the technique and form an array of logistical factors as variables that determine this condition. Experience in organizing multimodal transport showed that the "bottleneck" of transport logistics are items of cargo handling ports, terminals, freight stations and warehouses. At the core of the solution of these problems is the problem of estimating the variables determine the Multi-purpose Hubs. The aim is to develop a method of forming the system of logistical multiplying factors determine the role of each of the types in the technologiacal process of distributed Multi-purpose Hubs. Methods: The assessment model for the formation of Distributed Transport Units  can be based on formal methods to predict the behavior of complex systems engineering complexes. Then one of the approaches to the solution of the problem may be the matrix method of technological factors. Results and conclusions: The proposed methodology of the selection and validation of logistic coefficients has the practical importance in the models development for assessing the condition and behavior of Distributed Transport.

  12. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  13. RADTRAN 5: A computer code for transportation risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1991-01-01

    RADTRAN 5 is a computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, NM, to estimate radiological and nonradiological risks of radioactive materials transportation. RADTRAN 5 is written in ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 and contains significant advances in the methodology for route-specific analysis first developed by SNL for RADTRAN 4 (Neuhauser and Kanipe, 1992). Like the previous RADTRAN codes, RADTRAN 5 contains two major modules for incident-free and accident risk amlysis, respectively. All commercially important transportation modes may be analyzed with RADTRAN 5: highway by combination truck; highway by light-duty vehicle; rail; barge; ocean-going ship; cargo air; and passenger air

  14. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  16. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  17. Metabolic Interactions of Purine Derivatives with Human ABC Transporter ABCG2: Genetic Testing to Assess Gout Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Toshihisa; Aw, Wanping; Kaneko, Kiyoko

    2013-11-04

    In mammals, excess purine nucleosides are removed from the body by breakdown in the liver and excretion from the kidneys. Uric acid is the end product of purine metabolism in humans. Two-thirds of uric acid in the human body is normally excreted through the kidney, whereas one-third undergoes uricolysis (decomposition of uric acid) in the gut. Elevated serum uric acid levels result in gout and could be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Recent studies have shown that human ATP-binding cassette transporter ABCG2 plays a role of renal excretion of uric acid. Two non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), i.e., 421C>A (major) and 376C>T (minor), in the ABCG2 gene result in impaired transport activity, owing to ubiquitination-mediated proteosomal degradation and truncation of ABCG2, respectively. These genetic polymorphisms are associated with hyperuricemia and gout. Allele frequencies of those SNPs are significantly higher in Asian populations than they are in African and Caucasian populations. A rapid and isothermal genotyping method has been developed to detect the SNP 421C>A, where one drop of peripheral blood is sufficient for the detection. Development of simple genotyping methods would serve to improve prevention and early therapeutic intervention for high-risk individuals in personalized healthcare.

  18. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Margarete Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions.

  20. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  1. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  2. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  3. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  4. Unit environmental transport assessment of contaminants from Hanford's past-practice waste sites. Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.; Buck, J.W.; Castleton, K.J.

    1995-06-01

    The US Department of Energy, Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL) contracted Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to provide support to Advanced Sciences, Incorporated (ASI) in implementing tile regional no-action risk assessment in the Hanford Remedial Action Environmental Impact Statement. Researchers at PNL were charged with developing unit concentrations for soil, groundwater, surface water, and air at multiple locations within an 80-km radius from the center of tile Hanford installation. Using the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), PNL simulated (1) a unit release of one ci for each radionuclide and one kg for each chemical from contaminated soils and ponded sites, (2) transport of the contaminants in and through various environmental media and (3) exposure/risk of four exposure scenarios, outlined by the Hanford Site Baseline Remedial Action Methodology. These four scenarios include residential, recreational, industrial, and agricultural exposures. Spacially and temporally distributed environmental concentrations based on unit releases of radionuclides and chemicals were supported to ASI in support of the HRA-EIS. Risk for the four exposure scenarios, based on unit environment concentrations in air, water, and soil. were also supplied to ASI. This report outlines the procedure that was used to implement the unit transport portion of the HRA-EIS baseline risk assessment. Deliverables include unit groundwater, surface water, air, and soil concentrations at multiple locations within an 80-km radius from the center of the Hanford installation

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  6. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  7. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  8. Quantitative risk assessment of continuous liquid spill fires based on spread and burning behaviours

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jinlong; Huang, Hong; Li, Yuntao

    2017-01-01

    Spill fires usually occur during the storage and transportation of hazardous materials, posing a threat to the people and environment in their immediate proximity. In this paper, a classical Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) method is used to assess the risk of spill fires. In this method......, the maximum spread area and the steady burning area are introduced as parameters to clearly assess the range of influence of the spill fire. In the calculations, a modified spread model that takes into consideration the burning rate variation is established to calculate the maximum spread area. Furthermore......, large-scale experiments of spill fires on water and a glass sheet were conducted to verify the accuracy and application of the model. The results show that the procedure we developed can be used to quantitatively calculate the risk associated with a continuous spill fire....

  9. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  10. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  11. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  12. Assessing the Idaho Transportation Department's customer service performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-23

    This report assesses customer satisfaction with the Idaho Transportation Department. It also compares and contrasts the results of customer satisfaction surveys conducted for the Idaho Transportation Department with the results from other state trans...

  13. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  14. Transportation risk assessment of radioactive wastes generated by the N-Reactor stabilization program at the Hanford Site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheeler, T.

    1994-12-01

    The potential radiological and nonradiological risks associated with specific radioactive waste shipping campaigns at the Hanford Site are estimated. The shipping campaigns analyzed are associated with the transportation of wastes from the N-Reactor site at the 200-W Area, both within the Hanford Reservation, for disposal. The analysis is based on waste that would be generated from the N-Reactor stabilization program

  15. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  16. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  17. Transport policy and health inequalities: a health impact assessment of Edinburgh's transport policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, D; Douglas, M J; Conway, L; Noble, P; Hanlon, P

    2003-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) can be used to examine the relationships between inequalities and health. This HIA of Edinburgh's transport policy demonstrates how HIA can examine how different transport policies can affect different population groupings to varying degrees. In this case, Edinburgh's economy is based on tourism, financial services and Government bodies. These need a good transport infrastructure, which maintains a vibrant city centre. A transport policy that promotes walking, cycling and public transport supports this and is also good for health. The HIA suggested that greater spend on public transport and supporting sustainable modes of transport was beneficial to health, and offered scope to reduce inequalities. This message was understood by the City Council and influenced the development of the city's transport and land-use strategies. The paper discusses how HIA can influence public policy.

  18. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  19. Risk assessment through drinking water pathway via uncertainty modeling of contaminant transport using soft computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Datta, D.; Ranade, A.K.; Pandey, M.; Sathyabama, N.; Kumar, Brij

    2012-01-01

    The basic objective of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) is to build guidelines to reduce the associated risk or mitigate the consequences of the reactor accident at its source to prevent deterministic health effects, to reduce the risk of stochastic health effects (eg. cancer and severe hereditary effects) as much as reasonable achievable by implementing protective actions in accordance with IAEA guidance (IAEA Safety Series No. 115, 1996). The measure of exposure being the basic tool to take any appropriate decisions related to risk reduction, EIA is traditionally expressed in terms of radiation exposure to the member of the public. However, models used to estimate the exposure received by the member of the public are governed by parameters some of which are deterministic with relative uncertainty and some of which are stochastic as well as imprecise (insufficient knowledge). In an admixture environment of this type, it is essential to assess the uncertainty of a model to estimate the bounds of the exposure to the public to invoke a decision during an event of nuclear or radiological emergency. With a view to this soft computing technique such as evidence theory based assessment of model parameters is addressed to compute the risk or exposure to the member of the public. The possible pathway of exposure to the member of the public in the aquatic food stream is the drinking of water. Accordingly, this paper presents the uncertainty analysis of exposure via uncertainty analysis of the contaminated water. Evidence theory finally addresses the uncertainty in terms of lower bound as belief measure and upper bound of exposure as plausibility measure. In this work EIA is presented using evidence theory. Data fusion technique is used to aggregate the knowledge on the uncertain information. Uncertainty of concentration and exposure is expressed as an interval of belief, plausibility

  20. The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egidi, Demetrio; Foraboschi, Franco P.; Spadoni, Gigliola; Amendola, Aniello

    1995-01-01

    The paper describes the ARIPAR project aimed at the assessment of the major accident risks connected with storage, process and transportation of dangerous substances in the densely populated Ravenna area in Italy, which includes a large complex of chemical and petrochemical plants and minor industries, essentially distributed around an important commercial port. Large quantities of dangerous goods are involved in various transportation forms connected with the industrial and commercial activity of the port. The project started by making a complete inventory of fixed installations and transportation activities capable of provoking major fire, explosion and toxic release events; then relevant accident scenarios were developed for the single hazard sources; probabilities were assigned to the events and consequences were evaluated; finally iso-risk contours and F-N diagrams were evaluated both for the single sources and for the overall area. This required the development of a particular methodology for analysis of area risk and of associated software packages which allowed examination of the relative importance of the different activities and typologies of materials involved. The methodological approach and the results have proved to be very useful for the priority-ranking of risk mitigating interventions and physical planning in a complex area

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  3. An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milazzo, Maria Francesca; Aven, Terje

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

  4. Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

    1992-08-01

    This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers.

  5. Commercial low-level radioactive waste transportation liability and radiological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quinn, G.J.; Brown, O.F. II; Garcia, R.S.

    1992-08-01

    This report was prepared for States, compact regions, and other interested parties to address two subjects related to transporting low-level radioactive waste to disposal facilities. One is the potential liabilities associated with low-level radioactive waste transportation from the perspective of States as hosts to low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities. The other is the radiological risks of low-level radioactive waste transportation for drivers, the public, and disposal facility workers

  6. Exposure assessment of groundwater transport of tritium from the Central Nevada Test Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohlmann, K.; Chapman, J.; Andricevic, R.

    1995-04-01

    This exposure assessment provides a range of possible human health risk at two locations due to groundwater transport from the Faultless underground nuclear test. These locations correspond to the boundary of the land under DOE control (where no wells currently exist) and the closest existing well (Six Mile Well). The range in excess risk is within the EPA goal for excess risk due to environmental contaminants (10 -6 ) at Six Mile Well. Calculations considering high spatial variability in hydraulic properties and/or high uncertainty in the mean groundwater velocity are also within the EPA goal. At the DOE boundary, the range in excess risk exceeds the EPA goal, regardless of the values of spatial variability and uncertainty. The range in values of excess risk can be reduced with additional field data from the site; however, incorporation of additional data, which would likely be obtained at great expense, is unlikely to result in significant refinement of the results

  7. Risk assessment associated with the transport of low specific activity waste to the Centre de l'Aube disposal facility, France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raffestin, D.; Tort, V.; Manen, P.; Schneider, T.; Lombard, J.

    1994-01-01

    Since 1991, French Low Specific Activity wastes have been stored in the near-surface waste disposal site in the Aube region (CSA). In 1995, the CSA plans to receive approximately 23,000 m 3 of waste from the three major producers, EDF (Electricite de France), COGEMA (COmpagnie GEnerale des MAtieres nucleaires), and the CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique). Four different kinds of package are broadly represented: the 200 l drums to be compacted, the 200 l drums filled with fixed wastes, concrete shells and metallic boxes. As the radiological exposures resulting from waste transport could stem from both incident-free transport and accident situations, two separate studies have been conducted. Using the INTERTRAN code (IAEA software) for accident-free transport, the overall effective collective doses related to the whole transport activity have been calculated and a risk of 0.48 man.Sv per year has been deduced. (author)

  8. [Transportation and risk assessment of heavy metal pollution in water-soil from the Riparian Zone of Daye Lake, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jia-quan; Li, Xiu; Zhang, Quan-fa; Li, Qiong; Xiao, Wen-sheng; Wang, Yong-kui; Zhang, Jian-chun; Gai, Xi-guang

    2015-01-01

    Each 20 water samples and soil samples (0-10 cm, 10-20 cm) were collected from the riparian zone of Daye Lake in dry season during March 2013. Heavy metals (Cu, Ph, Cd, Zn) have been detected by flame atomic absorption spectrometric (FAAS). The results showed that the average concentrations of Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn in the water were 7.14, 25.94, 15.72 and 37.58 microg x L(-1), respectively. The concentration of Cu was higher than the five degree of the surface water environment quality standard. The average concentrations of Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn in soil(0-10 cm) were 108.38, 53.92, 3.55, 139.26 mg x kg(-1) in soil (10-20 cm) were 93.00, 51.72, 2.08, 171.00 mg x kg(-1), respectively. The Cd concentrations were higher than the three grade value of the national soil environment quality standard. The transportation of Pb from soil to water was relatively stable, and Zn was greatly influenced by soil property and the surrounding environment from soil to water. The transformation of heavy metal in west riparian zone was higher than that of east riparian zone. The potential environmental risk was relatively high. Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn were dominated by residue fraction of the modified BCR sequential extraction method. The overall migration order of heavy metal element was: Pb > Cu > Cd > Zn. There were stronger transformation and higher environmental pollution risk of Cu, Pb. The index of assessment and potential ecological risk coefficient indicated that heavy metal pollution in soil (0-10 cm) was higher than the soil (10-20 cm), Cd was particularly serious.

  9. Previsional evaluation of risks associated with ground transportation of uranium hexafluoride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pages, P.; Tomachevsky, E.

    1987-11-01

    This communication is a concrete example of application of the evaluation method for risks associated with road transportation of uranium hexafluoride by 48Y shipping container. The statistical bases for UF6 transportation are given by analysis of the list of accidents for dangerous road transportation. This study examines all parameters (cost-safety-meteorology-radiation doses) to take in account in the safety analysis of the UF6 transportation between Pierrelatte and Le Havre [fr

  10. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  11. Indicators and beyond: Assessing the sustainability of transport projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cornet, Yannick

    2016-01-01

    on the topic of sustainable transport indicator frameworks. Case study work draws upon extensive desktop-based analysis of impact assessment reports and other publically available material about real cases of large transport infrastructure appraisals. The HS2 high-speed rail (HSR) project appraisal in the UK......Credibly demonstrating actual progress towards a genuinely sustainable transport situation remains a challenge. A key problem is that the incorporation of sustainability in transport policy and planning at present is not systematic. A motivating assumption behind this thesis is that a transition...... toward a sustainable transport system will require strong support from decision-support processes and assessment tools that do not only adopt the language of sustainability, but fully integrate an explicit notion of sustainability in all of their conceptual, operational and procedural approaches...

  12. Risk assessment in gas and oil pipelines based on the fuzzy Bow-tie technique

    OpenAIRE

    P. Heyrani; A. Baghaei

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Nowadays, gas and oil account for 60 percent of world energy resources. Transporting crude oil and its products are accomplished through a number of ways among which pipelines are of the utmost significance. Considering the extent of pipelines in installation and residential areas and also high potential for damage, the safety of these pipes and application of risk management principles have undeniable importance. Bow-tie risk assessment method is one of the ways to determine sa...

  13. Radiological risk assessment for an urban area: Focusing on a drinking water contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hyo-Joon; Hwang, Won-Tae; Kim, Eun-Han; Han, Moon-Hee

    2009-01-01

    This paper specifically discusses a water quality modeling and health risk assessment for cesium-137 to assess the potential and actual effects on human health from drinking water contaminated by a radiological terrorist attack in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. With respect to the source term caused by a terrorist attack, it was assumed that 50 TBq of cesium-137 was introduced into the Paldang Lake which is a single water resource for the Seoul metropolitan area. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to calculate the hydrodynamic and water quality for the model domain, Paldang Lake. Mortality risk and morbid risk coefficients caused by the ingestion of tap water were used to assess a human health risk due to cesium-137. The transport of cesium-137 in the Paldang water system was mainly dependent on the flow streamlines and the effect of the dilution from the other branches. The mortality and morbidity risks due to the drinking water contamination by cesium-137 were 4.77 x 10 -7 and 6.92 x 10 -7 , respectively. Accordingly, it is very important to take appropriate countermeasures when radiological terrorist attacks have occurred at water resources to prevent radiological risks by radionuclides.

  14. Safety analysis of the transportation of radioactive waste to the Konrad final repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sentuc, F.N.; Bruecher, W.

    2010-01-01

    A transport risk assessment study has been conducted for transport of radioactive waste with negligible heat-generation to the German final repository Konrad. This study is a revision of the former Konrad Transport Study performed by GRS in 1991 implementing updated waste data among other improved methods and assumptions for the purpose of a more realistic approach to risk assessment. The first part of the transport risk assessment study concerns the radiological consequences from normal (accident-free) transportation of radioactive material, i.e. the radiation exposure of transport personnel and the public. Based on the assessed detailed information on transport arrangements and on the average number and radiological characteristics of waste packages the maximum annual effective doses for the representative persons were estimated. The risk associated with transport incidents and accidents has been quantified for the area within a radius of 25 km around the repository site. The probabilistic method adopted in this study considers parameters as the frequency and severity of railway or road accidents, characteristics of radioactive waste and transport packagings and the frequency of atmospheric dispersion conditions. From a large set of parameter combinations the spectrum of potential radiological consequences and of the associated probability of occurrence was assessed. (orig.)

  15. Risks assessment associated with the use of an analyzer for gamma cameras diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oramas Polo, I.; Figueroa del Valle, D. G.

    2013-01-01

    Technological development experienced by the industrialized countries has been accompanied by a significant improvement in living standards. Likewise, the proliferation of facilities and transportation of certain materials have involved the emergence of new risks, which could cause accidents with a strong impact on people and the environment. The paper makes a risk assessment associated with the use of an analyzer for Gamma Cameras diagnostic. The method is bases on determining the number of risks HRN (Hazard Rating Number). As a result of the methodology used was obtained the risks that have more implications in the use of this system and sets safety rules for their use and an action plan for managing them. (Author)

  16. Metabolic Interactions of Purine Derivatives with Human ABC Transporter ABCG2: Genetic Testing to Assess Gout Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyoko Kaneko

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In mammals, excess purine nucleosides are removed from the body by breakdown in the liver and excretion from the kidneys. Uric acid is the end product of purine metabolism in humans. Two-thirds of uric acid in the human body is normally excreted through the kidney, whereas one-third undergoes uricolysis (decomposition of uric acid in the gut. Elevated serum uric acid levels result in gout and could be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Recent studies have shown that human ATP-binding cassette transporter ABCG2 plays a role of renal excretion of uric acid. Two non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, i.e., 421C>A (major and 376C>T (minor, in the ABCG2 gene result in impaired transport activity, owing to ubiquitination-mediated proteosomal degradation and truncation of ABCG2, respectively. These genetic polymorphisms are associated with hyperuricemia and gout. Allele frequencies of those SNPs are significantly higher in Asian populations than they are in African and Caucasian populations. A rapid and isothermal genotyping method has been developed to detect the SNP 421C>A, where one drop of peripheral blood is sufficient for the detection. Development of simple genotyping methods would serve to improve prevention and early therapeutic intervention for high-risk individuals in personalized healthcare.

  17. Transportation of nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prowse, D.R.

    1979-01-01

    Shipment of used fuel from nuclear reactors to a central fuel management facility is discussed with particular emphasis on the assessment of the risk to the public due to these shipments. The methods of transporting used fuel in large shipping containers is reviewed. In terms of an accident scenario, it is demonstrated that the primary risk of transport of used fuel is due to injury and death in common road accidents. The radiological nature of the used fuel cargo is, for all practical purposes, an insignificant factor in the total risk to the public. (author)

  18. THE LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT - A CASE STUDY OF TRANSPORTING VOLVO CARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria P. Gerilla

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the number of vehicles in our society is detrimental to the environment because of increased fuel usage and pollutant emissions. This paper analyze the environmental effects of transporting cars from its manufacturer to its end user. The method used is the life cycle assessment (LCA. Life cycle assessment is a method for analyzing and evaluating environmental performance of products, processes or services throughout its entire life cycle. The paper also shows the effect of changing the fuel type used in transporting the vehicles. It can be seen that from the pollutant emissions in the transport chain, carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides are the leading pollutants, which affect the air quality in the environment. The truck is shown to be a heavy polluter in terms of its emission factors and there is not much difference between a European and an Asian country. With the use of the natural gas as an alternative fuel, emission levels can be reduced to as much as 19 % for CO2 and 16 % for NOx emissions while costs are higher in the first few years because of conversion costs, it can be said that it is worth the risk. The truck can be an environmentally adapted vehicle if its engine is converted to an alternative fuel engine like the compressed natural gas. The LCA methodology is holistic because it gives a systems analysis of the product

  19. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  20. Input data for quantifying risks associated with the transport of radioactive material. Final report of a co-ordinated research project 1996-2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-03-01

    The final outcome of the work done for the Coordinated Research Program (CRP) by ten countries, which was co-ordinated by the IAEA, is presented. Described are the modalities for the collection, analysis and processing of relevant input data and the selection of databases. These data cover such items as package characteristics, accident environments and package behaviour under accident load conditions. Advice is given as to how to present the risk assessment results and how to quantify the uncertainty inherent in the predicted consequences and risks. INTERTRAN2 computer code system as a risk assessment tool is described. Information is also given on various accident scenarios, event trees and severity frequencies, transport accident severity and frequency assessment methods as well as on dose assessment techniques

  1. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  2. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  3. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  4. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  5. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  6. Modelling tools for assessing bioremediation performance and risk of chlorinated solvents in clay tills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia

    design are challenging. This thesis presents the development and application of analytical and numerical models to improve our understanding of transport and degradation processes in clay tills, which is crucial for assessing bioremediation performance and risk to groundwater. A set of modelling tools...... to groundwater and bioremediation performance in low-permeability media....

  7. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  8. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  9. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  10. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  11. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  12. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  13. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  14. PRA Procedures Guide: a guide to the performance of probabilistic risk assessments for nuclear power plants. Final report, Volume 1 - Chapters 1-8

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This document, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures Guide, is intended to provide an overview of the risk-assessment field as it exists today and to identify acceptable techniques for the systematic assessment of the risk from nuclear power plants. Topics discussed include: organization of PRA; accident-sequence definition and system modeling; human-reliability analysis; data-base development; accident-sequence quantification; physical processes of core-melt accidents; and radionuclide release and transport

  15. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  16. Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) a literature survey

    OpenAIRE

    Zafer YILMAZ; Serpil EROL; Hakan Soner APLAK

    2016-01-01

    ransportation has a great role in logistics. Many researchers have studied on transportation and vehicle routing problems. Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) is a special subject for logistics. Causalities due to the accidents caused by trucks carrying hazardous materials will be intolerable. Many researchers have studied on risk assessment of hazmat transportation to find ways for reducing hazardous material transportation risks. Some researchers have studied routing of hazmat tr...

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  19. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  20. Transactional approach in assessment of operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubrovsky, V.; Yaroshevich, N.; Kuzmin, E.

    2016-07-01

    Offer an alternative method to assess operational performance of companies in transport infrastructure of a region by making a comparison between transaction costs. The method is supposed to be a cross-functional and possibly applied to an analysis of economic entities of a different order (country, region, sector, companies) while evaluating “viscosity” / complexity of the outside and the inside. The paper includes an analysis of various methodological approaches to assess a development level of the transport infrastructure in a region. Within the author's approach and for purposed of the research, an index of transaction capacity or the transactionalness index is proposed, which determines a level of transaction costs calculated against the cost of production and revenue. The approach is piloted using the region-wise consolidated financial data of companies involved in the Russian transport infrastructure for 2005/2013. The proposed alternative way to measure corporate operating efficiency has proved its academic consistency. A specific comparison between the transaction costs using the transactionalness index allows first to identify companies or regions/sectors, where there is excess complexity of economical communication in bargaining. Secondly, the index does not only point out indirectly to a degree of development in the institutional environment, but also the infrastructure (the transport one in the example given). Third, the transactionalness level may say of uncertainty and risks. As an addition to theoretical and methodological aspects of transaction costs, the authors justify an approach to their size estimation, as well as their differentiation dividing them into two groups: those of a natural type and a background type. In a course of their discussion, the authors have concluded that there are such transaction costs in place, which are standard in a manner of speaking. There is a discussion whether it is scientifically reasonable to use an

  1. Merging Remote Sensing and Socioeconomic Data to Improve Disaster Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetman, G.; Chen, R. S.; Huyck, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters disproportionately impact developing country economies while also impacting business operations for multi-national corporations that rely on supplies and manufacturing in affected areas. Understanding natural hazard risk is only a first step towards preparedness and mitigation—data on facilities, transportation, critical infrastructure, and populations that may be exposed to disasters is required to plan for events and properly assess risks. Detailed exposure data can be used in models to predict casualty rates, aggregate estimates of building damage or destruction, impacts on business operations, and the scale of recovery efforts required. These model outputs are useful for disaster preparedness planning by national and international organizations, as well as for corporations and the reinsurance industry seeking to better understand their risk exposure. Many of these data are lacking for developing countries. Rapid assessment in areas with minimal data for disaster modeling is possible by combing remote sensing data, sample data on construction methods, facility and critical infrastructure data, and economic and demographic census information. This presentation focuses on the methods used to fuse the physical and socioeconomic data by presenting the results from two projects. The first project seeks to improve earthquake risk assessments in Asia using for the reinsurance industry, while the second project builds an integrated exposure database across five countries in Africa for use by international development organizations.

  2. Input-variable sensitivity assessment for sediment transport relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Roberto; Garcia, Marcelo H.

    2017-09-01

    A methodology to assess input-variable sensitivity for sediment transport relations is presented. The Mean Value First Order Second Moment Method (MVFOSM) is applied to two bed load transport equations showing that it may be used to rank all input variables in terms of how their specific variance affects the overall variance of the sediment transport estimation. In sites where data are scarce or nonexistent, the results obtained may be used to (i) determine what variables would have the largest impact when estimating sediment loads in the absence of field observations and (ii) design field campaigns to specifically measure those variables for which a given transport equation is most sensitive; in sites where data are readily available, the results would allow quantifying the effect that the variance associated with each input variable has on the variance of the sediment transport estimates. An application of the method to two transport relations using data from a tropical mountain river in Costa Rica is implemented to exemplify the potential of the method in places where input data are limited. Results are compared against Monte Carlo simulations to assess the reliability of the method and validate its results. For both of the sediment transport relations used in the sensitivity analysis, accurate knowledge of sediment size was found to have more impact on sediment transport predictions than precise knowledge of other input variables such as channel slope and flow discharge.

  3. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-02-01

    Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that correspond to toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To illustrate the practical utility of fate models in ecological risk assessments of commercial products, the EQC model and a simple screening level biouptake model including three organisms, (a bird, a mammal and a fish) is applied to gasoline. In this analysis, gasoline is divided into 24 components or ''blocks'' with similar environmental fate properties that are assumed to elicit ecotoxicity via a narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discuss the implications of these results and insights gained into the regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is particularly suitable for assessing mixtures of components that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.

  4. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  5. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  9. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  10. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Process for High-Power Laser Operations in Outdoor Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    the NOHD/NSHD or its derivatives. Only those issued with an appropriate level of protection (such as protective eyewear or clothing) would be...developed in the emerging nuclear industry as well as in the established transport, petrochemical, and aerospace sectors, which were expanding...emergence of the PRA technique as an effective means of risk assessment. The origins of PRA lie in the aerospace industry .11,12 PRA is described by the

  11. Health risk assessment linked with purified biogas injection in a natural gas distribution system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Evanno, Sebastien

    2009-06-01

    This document provides for the opinion of the French Agency for Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety (Afsset) expressed after the collective expertise carried out for the evaluation of the health risk linked with biogas injection in the natural gas distribution system. Following the recommendations issued by the Afsset, works have been started in order to collect the sludge-derived biogas and to analyse its composition. These data will be used to assess accidental risks (resulting from biogas valorisation, pipeline transport, industrial and domestic energy valorisation) as well as health risks for users (resulting from the injection in the natural gas distribution system)

  12. Transport priorities, risk perception and worry associated with mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordfjærn, Trond; Simşekoğlu, Özlem; Lind, Hans Brende; Jørgensen, Stig Halvard; Rundmo, Torbjørn

    2014-11-01

    There is currently scant research on the role of transport priorities, risk perception and worry for travel mode use and preferences. The present study aims to examine these factors in relation to mode use and preferences among Norwegian commuters. A web-based survey was conducted in a randomly obtained representative sample of daily commuters in the extended greater Oslo area (n=690). The results showed that those who prioritized efficiency and flexibility tended to commute by car, while those who prioritized safety and comfort used public (e.g. metro, tram, and train) or active (e.g. walking and cycling) transport. In a free choice scenario, the respondents who prioritized flexibility reported a preference for using a car, whereas those who prioritized safety and comfort preferred public and active transport for their commuter travels. Risk perception of high impact events, such as terrorism and major accidents, as well as risk perception related to personal impact risks (theft, violence etc.) were related to car use on commuter travels. Transport-related worry exerted weak influences on mode use and preferences. Increased speed on rail transport and more frequent departures may be effective in reducing car use on commuter travels. Risk communication should focus on highlighting the low risk of experiencing security and safety issues in the public transport sector, and this message should be complemented by efforts to reduce the probability of negative events affecting public transport. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

    1997-11-01

    The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

  14. Assessing pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in candidates for kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Angela Q; Tichy, Eric M; Rogers, Christin C; Campara, Maya; Ensor, Christopher; Doligalski, Christina T; Gabardi, Steven; Descourouez, Jillian L; Doyle, Ian C; Trofe-Clark, Jennifer

    2015-05-15

    Pharmacotherapy concerns and other factors with a bearing on patient selection for kidney transplantation are discussed. The process of selecting appropriate candidates for kidney transplantation involves multidisciplinary assessment to evaluate a patient's mental, social, physical, financial, and medical readiness for successful surgery and good posttransplantation outcomes. Transplantation pharmacists can play important roles in the recognition and stratification of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in prospective kidney transplant recipients and the identification of issues that require a mitigation strategy. Key pharmacotherapy-related issues and considerations during the risk assessment process include (1) anticoagulation concerns, (2) cytochrome P-450 isoenzyme-mediated drug interactions, (3) mental health-related medication use, (4) chronic pain-related medication use, (5) medication allergies, (6) use of hormonal contraception and replacement therapy, (7) prior or current use of immunosuppressants, (8) issues with drug absorption, (9) alcohol use, (10) tobacco use, (11) active use of illicit substances, and (12) use of herbal supplements. Important areas of nonpharmacologic risk include vaccine delivery, infection prophylaxis and treatment, and socially related factors such as nonadherent behavior, communication barriers, and financial, insurance, or transportation challenges that can compromise posttransplantation outcomes. Consensus opinions of practitioners in transplantation pharmacy regarding the pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic factors that should be considered in assessing candidates for kidney transplantation are presented. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  16. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  17. Preliminary assessment of nuclear waste transportation cost and risk for operation of the first repository at candidate sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, R.W.; McSweeney, T.I.; Varadarajan, R.V.; Wilmot, E.L.; Cashwell, J.W.; Joy, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    To support the selection of the first commercial nuclear waste repository site in 1987, environmental analyses of five candidate site locations are currently being performed. The five locations are in the Gulf Interior Region, the Permian Basin, the Paradox Basin, Yucca Mountain and the Hanford reservation. Costs and operational risks associated with the transportation of nuclear wastes to a single repository located in these regions have been calculated for a life-cycle of 26 years

  18. Risk of the residents, infrastructure and water bodies by flash floods and sediment transport - assessment for scale of the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dostál, Tomáš; Krása, Josef; Bauer, Miroslav; Strouhal, Luděk; Jáchymová, Barbora; Devátý, Jan; David, Václav; Koudelka, Petr; Dočkal, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Pluvial and flash floods, related to massive sediment transport become phenomenon nowadays, under conditions of climate changes. Storm events, related to material damages appear at unexpected places and their effective control is only possible in form of prevention. To apply preventive measures, there have to be defined localities with reasonable reliability, which are endangered by surface runoff and sediment transport produced in the subcatchments, often at agriculturally used landscape. Classification of such localities, concerning of potential damages and magnitude of sediment transport shall be also included within the analyses, to design control measures effectively. Large scale project for whole territory of the Czech Republic (ca 80.000 km2) has therefore been granted b the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic, with the aim to define critical points, where interaction between surface runoff connected to massive sediment transport and infrastructure or vulnerable water bodies can occur and to classify them according to potential risk. Advanced GIS routines, based on analyses of land use, soil conditions and morphology had been used to determine the critical points - points, where significant surface runoff occurs and interacts with infrastructure and vulnerable water bodies, based exclusively on the contributing area - flow accumulation. In total, ca 150.000 critical points were determined within the Czech Republic. For each of critical points, its subcatchment had then been analyzed in detail, concerning of soil loss and sediment transport, using simulation model WATEM/SEDEM. The results were used for classification of potential risk of individual critical points, based on mean soil loss within subcatchment, total sediment transport trough the outlet point and subcatchment area. The classification has been done into 5 classes. The boundaries were determined by calibration survey and statistical analysis, performed at three experimental catchments area

  19. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denys Yemshanov

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion.While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and

  20. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  1. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  2. Assessment of the radiological impact of the transport of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-12-01

    In order to facilitate the assessment of the radiological impact of transport, and to guide the collection of data for future assessments, the IAEA convened a technical committee (The Technical Committee on the Assessment of the Radiological Impact from the Transport of Radioactive Materials; TC-556) in Vienna, Austria on 21-25 October 1985. The Terms of Reference called for this committee ''to collect and assess data on the radiation exposure of workers and the public during the transport of radioactive material, and to develop a summary statement, reflecting current practice and current state of knowledge, on the radiological impact of transport.'' This technical document provides the summary statement developed by TC-556. The statement should be viewed as an interim assessment since it utilized only data then available, or made available, to the committee. This document consists of three Sections: Section I - Background Information to the Summary Statement (prepared by the Secretariat); Section II - The Summary Statement on the Radiological Impact of the Transport of Radioactive Materials (developed by TC-556); and Section III - Recommendations for Future Assessments (a summary of statements and conclusions provided in the TC-556 Chairman's Report)

  3. Research on assessment methods for urban public transport development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Linghong; Dai, Hongna; Yao, Enjian; Jiang, Tian; Guo, Hongwei

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, with the rapid increase in urban population, the urban travel demands in Chinese cities have been increasing dramatically. As a result, developing comprehensive urban transport systems becomes an inevitable choice to meet the growing urban travel demands. In urban transport systems, public transport plays the leading role to promote sustainable urban development. This paper aims to establish an assessment index system for the development level of urban public transport consisting of a target layer, a criterion layer, and an index layer. Review on existing literature shows that methods used in evaluating urban public transport structure are dominantly qualitative. To overcome this shortcoming, fuzzy mathematics method is used for describing qualitative issues quantitatively, and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is used to quantify expert's subjective judgment. The assessment model is established based on the fuzzy AHP. The weight of each index is determined through the AHP and the degree of membership of each index through the fuzzy assessment method to obtain the fuzzy synthetic assessment matrix. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the rationality and practicability of the assessment system and the proposed assessment method.

  4. Estimating active transportation behaviors to support health impact assessment in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore J Mansfield

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Health impact assessment (HIA has been promoted as a means to encourage transportation and city planners to incorporate health considerations into their decision-making. Ideally, HIAs would include quantitative estimates of the population health effects of alternative planning scenarios, such as scenarios with and without infrastructure to support walking and cycling. However, the lack of baseline estimates of time spent walking or biking for transportation (together known as active transportation, which are critically related to health, often prevents planners from developing such quantitative estimates. To address this gap, we use data from the 2009 US National Household Travel Survey to develop a statistical model that estimates baseline time spent walking and biking as a function of the type of transportation used to commute to work along with demographic and built environment variables. We validate the model using survey data from the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC, metropolitan area. We illustrate how the validated model could be used to support transportation-related HIAs by estimating the potential health benefits of built environment modifications that support walking and cycling. Our statistical model estimates that on average, individuals who commute on foot spend an additional 19.8 (95% CI 16.9–23.2 minutes per day walking compared to automobile commuters. Public transit riders walk an additional 5.0 (95% CI 3.5–6.4 minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. Bicycle commuters cycle for an additional 28.0 (95% CI 17.5–38.1 minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. The statistical model was able to predict observed transportation physical activity in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region to within 0.5 MET-hours per day (equivalent to about 9 minutes of daily walking time for 83% of observations. Across the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region, an estimated 38 (95% CI 15–59 premature deaths potentially could be

  5. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansfield, Theodore J; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) has been promoted as a means to encourage transportation and city planners to incorporate health considerations into their decision-making. Ideally, HIAs would include quantitative estimates of the population health effects of alternative planning scenarios, such as scenarios with and without infrastructure to support walking and cycling. However, the lack of baseline estimates of time spent walking or biking for transportation (together known as "active transportation"), which are critically related to health, often prevents planners from developing such quantitative estimates. To address this gap, we use data from the 2009 US National Household Travel Survey to develop a statistical model that estimates baseline time spent walking and biking as a function of the type of transportation used to commute to work along with demographic and built environment variables. We validate the model using survey data from the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC, USA, metropolitan area. We illustrate how the validated model could be used to support transportation-related HIAs by estimating the potential health benefits of built environment modifications that support walking and cycling. Our statistical model estimates that on average, individuals who commute on foot spend an additional 19.8 (95% CI 16.9-23.2) minutes per day walking compared to automobile commuters. Public transit riders walk an additional 5.0 (95% CI 3.5-6.4) minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. Bicycle commuters cycle for an additional 28.0 (95% CI 17.5-38.1) minutes per day compared to automobile commuters. The statistical model was able to predict observed transportation physical activity in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region to within 0.5 MET-hours per day (equivalent to about 9 min of daily walking time) for 83% of observations. Across the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region, an estimated 38 (95% CI 15-59) premature deaths potentially could be avoided if the entire

  6. Safety and security in transportation of radioactive material- the perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericsson, A.M.; Jaernry, C. [AMC Konsult AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2004-07-01

    Since the event of September 11, 2001, the way most people look at transportation risk has changed. There is now a lot more focusing on the security concerns related to the transportation of radioactive material. Most people are now more concerned about the risk of terrorist actions or sabotage than of accidents. This is probably due to the fact that the safety record for transportation of radioactive material has so far been very good and that most people experience terrorism and sabotage more scaring and less controllable than general accidents. This paper will compare the safety and the security regulations and discuss synergies and contradictions between the sets of regulations.

  7. Safety and security in transportation of radioactive material- the perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ericsson, A.M.; Jaernry, C.

    2004-01-01

    Since the event of September 11, 2001, the way most people look at transportation risk has changed. There is now a lot more focusing on the security concerns related to the transportation of radioactive material. Most people are now more concerned about the risk of terrorist actions or sabotage than of accidents. This is probably due to the fact that the safety record for transportation of radioactive material has so far been very good and that most people experience terrorism and sabotage more scaring and less controllable than general accidents. This paper will compare the safety and the security regulations and discuss synergies and contradictions between the sets of regulations

  8. An assessment of public transportation markets using NHTS data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    In 2007, the American Public Transportation : Association (APTA) assessed public transit markets : in a national study published as A Profile of Public : Transportation Passenger Demographics and Travel : Characteristics Reported in On-Board Surveys....

  9. Assessing transportation and road conditions in niger state, nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing transportation and road conditions in niger state, nigeria using geoinformatics, with focus on impact of climate ... Also the impacts of climate change on transportation were highlighted. ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  10. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  11. Evaluation of the radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menossi, C.A.; Segado, R.; Reyes, R.

    1983-01-01

    A probability model for the evaluation of the individual radiological risk resulting from road transportation of tritiated water in 200-liter drums is presented. In order to evaluate such risk, an evaluation must be made of the probability for an individual to be involved in the consequences of a radiological transport accident, to incur a given dose and to suffer deleterious effects resulting from the dose incurred. With the purpose of quantifying the importance of accidents, a severity level classification was adopted as a function of the fraction of liquid volume spilled as a result of the accident. Considering the above-mentioned severity classification and the transported volume, the volume and the spill area are implied, while the soil characteristics are taken into account. By evaluating the spill characteristics, the average meteorological conditions in the area under analysis and the activity concentration of the transported liquid, the activity concentration values for tritium in air may be estimated, thus allowing calculation of the effective dose equivalent to be incurred by the individual who is most exposed to the consequences of an associated event. As a result of the summarized analysis above, a value of the individual risk per unit of activity concentration is obtained for tritium and for a given volume of transported liquid. 8 references

  12. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  13. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  14. The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

    2004-01-01

    Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

  15. Assessment of hydrologic transport of radionuclides from the Rulison Underground Nuclear Test Site, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earman, S.; Chapman, J.; Andricevic, R.

    1996-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is operating an environmental restoration program to characterize, remediate, and close non-Nevada Test Site locations that were used for nuclear testing. Evaluation of radionuclide transport by groundwater from these sites is an important part of the preliminary risk analysis. These evaluations are undertaken to allow prioritization of the test areas in terms of risk, provide a quantitative basis for discussions with regulators and the public about future work at the sites, and provide a framework for assessing data needs to be filled by site characterization. The Rulison site in west-central Colorado was the location of an underground detonation of a 40-kiloton nuclear device in 1969. The test took place 2,568 m below ground surface in the Mesaverde Formation. Though located below the regional water table, none of the bedrock formations at the site yielded water during hydraulic tests, indicating extremely low permeability conditions. The scenario evaluated was the migration of radionuclides from the blast-created cavity through the Mesaverde Formation. Transport calculations were performed using the solute flux method, with input based on the limited data available for the site. Model results suggest that radionuclides from the test are contained entirely within the area currently administered by DOE. The transport calculations are most sensitive to changes in the mean groundwater velocity and the correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity, with transport of strontium and cesium also sensitive to the sorption coefficient

  16. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  17. Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

    2015-01-01

    Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis. - Highlights: • Risk analyses in maritime transportation analysed in light of foundational issues. • Focus on definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis. • Probability-based definitions and realist approaches dominate the field. • Findings support calls for increased focus on foundational issues in risk research. • Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation

  18. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  19. Automation of GIS-Based Population Data-Collection for Transportation Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MILLS, G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER, SIEGLINDE

    1999-01-01

    Estimation of the potential radiological risks associated with highway transport of radioactive materials (RAM) requires input data describing population densities adjacent to all portions of the route to be traveled. Previously, aggregated risks for entire multi-state routes were adequately estimated from population data with low geographic resolution. Current demands for geographically-specific risk estimates require similar increases in resolution of population density adjacent to route segments. With the advent of commercial geographic information systems (GISs) and databases describing highways, U.S. Census Blocks, and other information that is geographically distributed, it became feasible to determine and tabulate population characteristics along transportation routes with 1-kilometer resolution. This report describes an automated method of collecting population data adjacent to route segments (for calculation of incident-free doses) based on a commercial GIS. It also describes a statistical method of resolving remaining resolution issues, and an adaptation of the automation method to collection of data on population under a hypothetical plume of contamination resulting from a potential transportation accident

  20. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  1. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  2. Impact assessment of the carbon reduction strategy for transport, low carbon transport : a greener future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    This is an impact assessment for the Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport (DfT, 2009), Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future, which is part of the UK Governments wider UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (DECC, 2009), Britains path to ta...

  3. Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainties in conventional quantitative risk assessment typically relate to values of parameters in risk models. For many environmental contaminants, there is a lack of sufficient information about multiple components of the risk assessment framework. In such cases, the use of default assumptions and extrapolations to fill in the data gaps is a common practice. Nanoparticle risks, however, pose a new form of risk assessment challenge. Besides a lack of data, there is deep scientific uncertainty regarding every aspect of the risk assessment framework: (a) particle characteristics that may affect toxicity; (b) their fate and transport through the environment; (c) the routes of exposure and the metrics by which exposure ought to be measured; (d) the mechanisms of translocation to different parts of the body; and (e) the mechanisms of toxicity and disease. In each of these areas, there are multiple and competing models and hypotheses. These are not merely parametric uncertainties but uncertainties about the choice of the causal mechanisms themselves and the proper model variables to be used, i.e., structural uncertainties. While these uncertainties exist for PM2.5 as well, risk assessment for PM2.5 has avoided dealing with these issues because of a plethora of epidemiological studies. However, such studies don't exist for the case of nanoparticles. Even if such studies are done in the future, they will be very specific to a particular type of engineered nanoparticle and not generalizable to other nanoparticles. Therefore, risk assessment for nanoparticles will have to deal with the various uncertainties that were avoided in the case of PM2.5. Consequently, uncertainties in estimating risks due to nanoparticle exposures may be characterized as 'extreme'. This paper proposes a methodology by which risk analysts can cope with such extreme uncertainty. One way to make these problems analytically tractable is to use expert judgment approaches to study the degree of

  4. Optimization of public protection in the case of transportation of radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pages, P.; Hubert, P.

    1986-09-01

    The initial purpose of the study was to assess risk to the public associated with UF 6 transportation in France as projected for the years to come. In a first stage a particular risk assessment methodology has been developed at the CEPN in the field of radioactive material transportation, through this first example and some others. Then a number of questions were raised as to the opportunity of given safety measures, associated for example with possible changes in the regulations. One such measure could be to adopt an overpack for natural uranium hexafluoride containers. This particular action and others bearing on either natural or enriched uranium hexafluoride transportation in both truck and rail modes were envisaged. The case study presented here deals with the comparison of a set of such alternative options aiming at reducing the risk to the public in the transportation of natural UF 6 by truck in France. Risk from the transportation only itself is taken into account, risk is assessed for accident situations only, health detriment is evaluated only for the consequences of the release itself

  5. The environmental impact and risk assessment of CO2 capture, transport and storage - an evaluation of the knowledge base

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.M.; Ramirez, C.A.; Turkenburg, W.C.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we identify and characterize known and new environmental consequences associated with CO2 capture from power plants, transport by pipeline and storage in geological formations. We have reviewed (analogous) environmental impact assessment procedures and scientific literature on

  6. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  8. Generalized Fragility Relationships with Local Site Conditions for Probabilistic Performance-based Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Inventories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sivathayalan S.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The current practice of detailed seismic risk assessment cannot be easily applied to all the bridges in a large transportation networks due to limited resources. This paper presents a new approach for seismic risk assessment of large bridge inventories in a city or national bridge network based on the framework of probabilistic performance based seismic risk assessment. To account for the influences of local site effects, a procedure to generate site-specific hazard curves that includes seismic hazard microzonation information has been developed for seismic risk assessment of bridge inventories. Simulated ground motions compatible with the site specific seismic hazard are used as input excitations in nonlinear time history analysis of representative bridges for calibration. A normalizing procedure to obtain generalized fragility relationships in terms of structural characteristic parameters of bridge span and size and longitudinal and transverse reinforcement ratios is presented. The seismic risk of bridges in a large inventory can then be easily evaluated using the normalized fragility relationships without the requirement of carrying out detailed nonlinear time history analysis.

  9. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  10. Application of risk assessment techniques to 'major hazard' pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, R A

    1982-12-01

    A risk analysis for a hazardous-material pipeline (carrying LPG, ammonia, or high-pressure gas) is presented. The analysis gives results in a form that will assist the decisionmaker in pipeline planning and route selection. The large inventory of hazardous materials in such pipelines means that risks exist even though the accident record of pipeline transportation compares favorably with that for competing modes of transport. Risk analysis techniques - commonly used in the civil aviation, nuclear, and process industries - can be equally well applied to pipelines and can produce results that not only give a measure of the risk but also indicate the principal sources of risk and possible areas for improvement. A number of pipeline risk analyses have demonstrated the viability of the technique and its usefulness as an aid to practical engineering in design, planning, and maintenance/repair phases.

  11. Human reliability and risk management in the transportation of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuler, S.; Kasperson, R.E.; Ratick, S.

    1989-01-01

    This paper summarizes work on human factor contributions to risks from spent nuclear fuel transportation. Human participation may have significant effects on the levels and types of risks by enabling or initiating incidents and exacerbating adverse consequences. Human errors are defined to be the result of mismatches between perceived system state and actual system state. In complex transportation systems such mismatches may be distributed in time (e.g., during different stages of design, implementation, operation, maintenance) and location (e.g., human error, its identification, and its recovery may be geographically and institutionally separate). Risk management programs may decrease the probability of undesirable events or attenuate the consequences of mismatches. This paper presents a methodology to identify the scope and types of human-task mismatches and to identify potential management options for their prevention, mitigation, or recovery. A review of transportation accident databases, in conjunction with human error models, is used to develop a taxonomy of human errors during design for the pre-identification of potential mismatches or after incidents have occurred to evaluate their causes. Risk management options to improve human reliability are identified by a matrix that relates the multiple stages of a spent nuclear fuel transportation system to management options (e.g., training, data analysis, regulation). The paper concludes with examples to illustrate how the methodology may be applied. (author)

  12. Risks of transport of radioactive materials on the road; some exploring calculations performed with the INTERTRAN-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-04-01

    Under the auspices of the IAEA a computercode, named INTERTRAN, has been developed in order to calculate the risks of the transport of radioactive materials. This code has to be tested nearer. For the Dutch situation a number of calculations has been performed of more or less realistic cases in which four transport streams have been investigated. Two transport routes are chosen. The risks thus obtained are compared quantitatively with the risks of LPG-transports. 4 refs.; 9 figs

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of s