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Sample records for transmission dynamic model

  1. Nonlinear dynamics modelling of multistage micro-planetary gear transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jianying

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The transmission structure of a 2K-H multistage micro-planetary gear transmission reducer is described in detail, and three assumptions are supposed in dynamic modelling. On basis of these assumptions, a three stages 2K-H micro-planetary gear transmission dynamic model is established, in which the relative displacement each meshing gear pairs can be obtained after including the comprehensive transmission error. According to gear kinematics, the friction arms between the sun gear, the ring gear and the nth planet are also obtained, and the friction coefficient in the mixed elastohydrodynamic lubrication is considered, the transmission system motion differential equations are obtained, including above factors and the time-varying meshing stiffness, damping and backlash, inter-stage coupling stiffness, it can be provided an theoretical foundation for further analysing the parameter sensitivity, dynamic stability and designing.

  2. Dynamics Modelling of Transmission Gear Rattle and Analysis on Influence Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaona; Zhang, Honghui

    2018-02-01

    Based on the vibration dynamics modeling for the single stage gear of transmission system, this paper is to understand the mechanism of transmission rattle. The dynamic model response using MATLAB and Runge-Kutta algorithm is analyzed, and the ways for reducing the rattle noise of the automotive transmission is summarized.

  3. A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

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    Rachel Waema Mbogo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

  4. Chancroid transmission dynamics: a mathematical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhunu, C P; Mushayabasa, S

    2011-12-01

    Mathematical models have long been used to better understand disease transmission dynamics and how to effectively control them. Here, a chancroid infection model is presented and analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. High levels of treatment are shown to reduce the reproduction number suggesting that treatment has the potential to control chancroid infections in any given community. This result is also supported by numerical simulations which show a decline in chancroid cases whenever the reproduction number is less than unity.

  5. Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code%Dynamic Model for the Z Accelerator Vacuum Section Based on Transmission Line Code

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    呼义翔; 雷天时; 吴撼宇; 郭宁; 韩娟娟; 邱爱慈; 王亮平; 黄涛; 丛培天; 张信军; 李岩; 曾正中; 孙铁平

    2011-01-01

    The transmission-line-circuit model of the Z accelerator, developed originally by W. A. STYGAR, P. A. CORCORAN, et al., is revised. The revised model uses different calculations for the electron loss and flow impedance in the magnetically insulated transmission line system of the Z accelerator before and after magnetic insulation is established. By including electron pressure and zero electric field at the cathode, a closed set of equations is obtained at each time step, and dynamic shunt resistance (used to represent any electron loss to the anode) and flow impedance are solved, which have been incorporated into the transmission line code for simulations of the vacuum section in the Z accelerator. Finally, the results are discussed in comparison with earlier findings to show the effectiveness and limitations of the model.

  6. Lossy transmission line model of hydrofractured well dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patzek, T.W. [Department of Materials Science and Mineral Engineering, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); De, A. [Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The real-time detection of hydrofracture growth is crucial to the successful operation of water, CO{sub 2} or steam injection wells in low-permeability reservoirs and to the prevention of subsidence and well failure. In this paper, we describe propagation of very low frequency (1-10 to 100 Hz) Stoneley waves in a fluid-filled wellbore and their interactions with the fundamental wave mode in a vertical hydrofracture. We demonstrate that Stoneley-wave loses energy to the fracture and the energy transfer from the wellbore to the fracture opening is most efficient in soft rocks. We conclude that placing the wave source and receivers beneath the injection packer provides the most efficient means of hydrofracture monitoring. We then present the lossy transmission line model of wellbore and fracture for the detection and characterization of fracture state and volume. We show that this model captures the wellbore and fracture geometry, the physical properties of injected fluid and the wellbore-fracture system dynamics. The model is then compared with experimentally measured well responses. The simulated responses are in good agreement with published experimental data from several water injection wells with depths ranging from 1000 ft to 9000 ft. Hence, we conclude that the transmission line model of water injectors adequately captures wellbore and fracture dynamics. Using an extensive data set for the South Belridge Diatomite waterfloods, we demonstrate that even for very shallow wells the fracture size and state can be adequately recognized at wellhead. Finally, we simulate the effects of hydrofracture extension on the transient response to a pulse signal generated at wellhead. We show that hydrofracture extensions can indeed be detected by monitoring the wellhead pressure at sufficiently low frequencies.

  7. Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Andrea; Kappeler, Peter M; Nunn, Charles L

    2017-05-01

    Social networks provide an established tool to implement heterogeneous contact structures in epidemiological models. Dynamic temporal changes in contact structure and ranging behaviour of wildlife may impact disease dynamics. A consensus has yet to emerge, however, concerning the conditions in which network dynamics impact model outcomes, as compared to static approximations that average contact rates over longer time periods. Furthermore, as many pathogens can be transmitted both environmentally and via close contact, it is important to investigate the relative influence of both transmission routes in real-world populations. Here, we use empirically derived networks from a population of wild primates, Verreaux's sifakas (Propithecus verreauxi), and simulated networks to investigate pathogen spread in dynamic vs. static social networks. First, we constructed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model of Cryptosporidium spread in wild Verreaux's sifakas. We incorporated social and environmental transmission routes and parameterized the model for two different climatic seasons. Second, we used simulated networks and greater variation in epidemiological parameters to investigate the conditions in which dynamic networks produce larger outbreak sizes than static networks. We found that average outbreak size of Cryptosporidium infections in sifakas was larger when the disease was introduced in the dry season than in the wet season, driven by an increase in home range overlap towards the end of the dry season. Regardless of season, dynamic networks always produced larger average outbreak sizes than static networks. Larger outbreaks in dynamic models based on simulated networks occurred especially when the probability of transmission and recovery were low. Variation in tie strength in the dynamic networks also had a major impact on outbreak size, while network modularity had a weaker influence than epidemiological parameters that determine transmission and recovery

  8. Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

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    Mathieu Andraud

    Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

  9. Global dynamics of multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde

    2014-01-01

    A challenge to multi-group epidemic models in mathematical epidemiology is the exploration of global dynamics. Here we formulate multi-group SEI animal disease models with indirect transmission via contaminated water. Under biologically motivated assumptions, the basic reproduction number R 0 is derived and established as a sharp threshold that completely determines the global dynamics of the system. In particular, we prove that if R 0 <1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out; whereas if R 0 >1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and thus unique, and the disease persists in all groups. Since the weight matrix for weighted digraphs may be reducible, the afore-mentioned approach is not directly applicable to our model. For the proofs we utilize the classical method of Lyapunov, graph-theoretic results developed recently and a new combinatorial identity. Since the multiple transmission pathways may correspond to the real world, the obtained results are of biological significance and possible generalizations of the model are also discussed

  10. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  11. PREDICTION OF DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC SPREADING USING DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION VECTOR MODEL

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    Retno Widyaningrum

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Increasing number of dengue cases in Surabaya shows that its city has high potential of dengue fever epidemic. Although some policies were designed by Surabaya Health Department, such as fogging and mosquito’s nest eradication, but these efforts still out of target because of inaccurate predictions. Ineffectiveness eradication of dengue fever epidemic is caused by lack of information and knowledge on environmental conditions in Surabaya. Developing spread and prediction system to minimize dengue fever epidemic is necessary to be conducted immediately. Spread and prediction system can improve eradication and prevention accuracy. The transmission dynamics vector simulation will be used as an approach to draw a complex system ofmosquito life cycle in which involve a lot offactors. Dynamics transmission model used to build model in mosquito model (oviposition rate and pre adult mosquito, infected and death cases in dengue fever. The model of mosquito and infected population can represent system. The output of this research is website of spread and prediction system of dengue fever epidemics to predict growth rate of Aedes Aegypti mosquito, infected, and death population because of dengue fever epidemics. The deviation of infected population is 0,519. The model of death cases in dengue fever is less precision with the deviation 1,229. Death cases model need improvement by adding some variables that influence to dengue fever death cases. Spread ofdengue fever prediction will help the government, health department to decide the best policies in minimizing the spread ofdengue fever epidemics.

  12. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

    OpenAIRE

    Miao, Anqi; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Tongqian; Pradeep, B. G. Sampath Aruna

    2017-01-01

    A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  13. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  14. Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic SIR Model with Vertical Transmission and Vaccination

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    Anqi Miao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic SIR model with vertical transmission and vaccination is proposed and investigated in this paper. The threshold dynamics are explored when the noise is small. The conditions for the extinction or persistence of infectious diseases are deduced. Our results show that large noise can lead to the extinction of infectious diseases which is conducive to epidemic diseases control.

  15. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  16. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David L.; Perkins, T. Alex; Reiner, Robert C.; Barker, Christopher M.; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M.; George, Dylan B.; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R. C.; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Garcia, Andres J.; Gatton, Michelle L.; Gething, Peter W.; Hartley, David M.; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y.; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L.; Pigott, David M.; Reisen, William K.; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K.; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J.; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Cohen, Justin M.; Hay, Simon I.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2014-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control. PMID:24591453

  17. Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David L; Perkins, T Alex; Reiner, Robert C; Barker, Christopher M; Niu, Tianchan; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Ellis, Alicia M; George, Dylan B; Le Menach, Arnaud; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Bisanzio, Donal; Buckee, Caroline; Chiyaka, Christinah; Cummings, Derek A T; Garcia, Andres J; Gatton, Michelle L; Gething, Peter W; Hartley, David M; Johnston, Geoffrey; Klein, Eili Y; Michael, Edwin; Lloyd, Alun L; Pigott, David M; Reisen, William K; Ruktanonchai, Nick; Singh, Brajendra K; Stoller, Jeremy; Tatem, Andrew J; Kitron, Uriel; Godfray, H Charles J; Cohen, Justin M; Hay, Simon I; Scott, Thomas W

    2014-04-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald's formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are now used to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross-Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context for mosquito blood feeding, the movement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

  18. Dynamical behavior of an epidemic model for a vector-borne disease with direct transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Li Xuezhi; Li Zhaoqiang

    2013-01-01

    An epidemic model of a vector-borne disease with direct transmission is investigated. The reproduction number (R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model reveals the presence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in the standard incidence model. The phenomenon shows that the classical epidemiological requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity is no longer sufficient, although necessary, for effectively controlling the spread of some vector-borne diseases in a community. The backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the standard incidence with a bilinear mass action incidence. By using Lyapunov function theory and LaSalle invariance principle, it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium for the model with a mass action incidence is globally stable if the reproduction number R mass is greater than one in feasible region. This suggests that the use of standard incidence in modelling some vector-borne diseases with direct transmission results in the presence of backward bifurcation. Numerical simulations analyze the effect of the direct transmission and the disease-induced death rate on dynamics of the disease transmission, and also verify our analyzed results.

  19. Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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    Morgan E. Smith

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL, and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG. We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

  20. Analysis on Dynamic Transmission Accuracy for RV Reducer

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    Zhang Fengshou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available By taking rotate vector (RV reducer as the research object, the factors affecting the transmission accuracy are studied, including the machining errors of the main parts, assembly errors, clearance, micro-displacement, gear mesh stiffness and damping, bearing stiffness. Based on Newton second law, the transmission error mathematical model of RV reducer is set up. Then, the RV reducer transmission error curve is achieved by solving the mathematical model using the Runge-Kutta methods under the combined action of various error factors. Through the analysis of RV reducer transmission test, it can be found that there are similar variation trend and frequency components compared the theoretical research and experimental result. The presented method is useful to the research on dynamic transmission accuracy of RV reducer, and also applies to research the transmission accuracy of other cycloid drive systems.

  1. Dynamic investigation of a locomotive with effect of gear transmissions under tractive conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zaigang; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

    2017-11-01

    Locomotive is used to drag trailers to move or supply the braking forces to slow the running speed of a train. The electromagnetic torque of the motor is always transmitted by the gear transmission system to the wheelset for generation of the tractive or braking forces at the wheel-rail contact interface. Consequently, gear transmission system is significant for power delivery of a locomotive. This paper develops a comprehensive locomotive-track vertical-longitudinal coupled dynamics model with dynamic effect of gear transmissions. This dynamics model enables considering the coupling interactions between the gear transmission motion, the vertical and the longitudinal motions of the vehicle, and the vertical vibration of the track structure. In this study, some complicated dynamic excitations, such as the gear time-varying mesh stiffness, nonlinear gear tooth backlash, the nonlinear wheel-rail normal contact force and creep force, and the rail vertical geometrical irregularity, are considered. Then, the dynamic responses of the locomotive under the tractive conditions are demonstrated by numerical simulations based on the established dynamics model and by experimental test. The developed dynamics model is validated by the good agreement between the experimental and the theoretical results. The calculated results reveal that the gear transmission system has strong dynamic interactions with the wheel-rail contact interface including both the vertical and the longitudinal motions, and it has negligible effect on the vibrations of the bogie frame and carbody.

  2. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  3. Transmission probability-based dynamic power control for multi-radio mesh networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Olwal, TO

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model for the selection of the transmission power based on the bi-directional medium access information. Most of dynamic transmission power control algorithms are based on the single directional channel...

  4. Characterizing measles transmission in India: a dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Jones, Edward O; Johri, Mira; Morris, Shaun K; Suraweera, Wilson; Gauvreau, Cindy L; Jha, Prabhat; Jit, Mark

    2017-08-10

    Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

  5. Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournié, Guillaume; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Bendrey, Robin

    2017-02-01

    Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella . Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis , the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.

  6. Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

    2018-04-24

    Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

  7. Dynamic characteristic analysis of mother to child transmission of HIV in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Kadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a mathematical model of HIV/AIDS mother to child transmission to analyze the effectiveness of prevention of HIV mother to child transmission programmes has been presented. The result reveals that prevention of HIV mother to child transmission programmes focusing only on biological transmission cannot control the increase of the HIV mother to child transmission in India. Hence, to control the HIV MTCT epidemic in India, in spite of strengthening the PMTCT programmes to reduce transmission rates, effective measures should be taken to prevent HIV infection in women of reproductive ages. Since the overall HIV MTCT epidemic is dependent on the HIV incidence in women of reproductive age group, the integration of pediatric HIV model with a detailed model of adult HIV would be investigated in future studies in order to model these dynamics more accurately.

  8. The dynamics of transmission and the dynamics of networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farine, Damien

    2017-05-01

    A toy example depicted here highlighting the results of a study in this issue of the Journal of Animal Ecology that investigates the impact of network dynamics on potential disease outbreaks. Infections (stars) that spread by contact only (left) reduce the predicted outbreak size compared to situations where individuals can become infected by moving through areas that previously contained infected individuals (right). This is potentially important in species where individuals, or in this case groups, have overlapping ranges (as depicted on the top right). Incorporating network dynamics that maintain information about the ordering of contacts (central blocks; including the ordering of spatial overlap as noted by the arrows that highlight the blue group arriving after the red group in top-right of the figure) is important for capturing how a disease might not have the opportunity to spread to all individuals. By contrast, a static or 'average' network (lower blocks) does not capture any of these dynamics. Interestingly, although static networks generally predict larger outbreak sizes, the authors find that in cases when transmission probability is low, this prediction can switch as a result of changes in the estimated intensity of contacts among individuals. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]. Springer, A., Kappeler, P.M. & Nunn, C.L. (2017) Dynamic vs. static social networks in models of parasite transmission: Predicting Cryptosporidium spread in wild lemurs. Journal of Animal Ecology, 86, 419-433. The spread of disease or information through networks can be affected by several factors. Whether and how these factors are accounted for can fundamentally change the predicted impact of a spreading epidemic. Springer, Kappeler & Nunn () investigate the role of different modes of transmission and network dynamics on the predicted size of a disease outbreak across several groups of Verreaux's sifakas, a group-living species of lemur. While some factors

  9. Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, Leah M; Araz, Ozgur M; Huang, Terry T-K

    2013-01-01

    Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1) to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2) to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively). Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence) than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally, targeting adults may

  10. Modeling social transmission dynamics of unhealthy behaviors for evaluating prevention and treatment interventions on childhood obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah M Frerichs

    Full Text Available Research evidence indicates that obesity has spread through social networks, but lever points for interventions based on overlapping networks are not well studied. The objective of our research was to construct and parameterize a system dynamics model of the social transmission of behaviors through adult and youth influence in order to explore hypotheses and identify plausible lever points for future childhood obesity intervention research. Our objectives were: (1 to assess the sensitivity of childhood overweight and obesity prevalence to peer and adult social transmission rates, and (2 to test the effect of combinations of prevention and treatment interventions on the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity. To address the first objective, we conducted two-way sensitivity analyses of adult-to-child and child-to-child social transmission in relation to childhood overweight and obesity prevalence. For the second objective, alternative combinations of prevention and treatment interventions were tested by varying model parameters of social transmission and weight loss behavior rates. Our results indicated child overweight and obesity prevalence might be slightly more sensitive to the same relative change in the adult-to-child compared to the child-to-child social transmission rate. In our simulations, alternatives with treatment alone, compared to prevention alone, reduced the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity more after 10 years (1.2-1.8% and 0.2-1.0% greater reduction when targeted at children and adults respectively. Also, as the impact of adult interventions on children was increased, the rank of six alternatives that included adults became better (i.e., resulting in lower 10 year childhood overweight and obesity prevalence than alternatives that only involved children. The findings imply that social transmission dynamics should be considered when designing both prevention and treatment intervention approaches. Finally

  11. Dynamics of tuberculosis transmission with exogenous reinfections and endogenous reactivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khajanchi, Subhas; Das, Dhiraj Kumar; Kar, Tapan Kumar

    2018-05-01

    We propose and analyze a mathematical model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission to study the role of exogenous reinfection and endogenous reactivation. The model exhibits two equilibria: a disease free and an endemic equilibria. We observe that the TB model exhibits transcritical bifurcation when basic reproduction number R0 = 1. Our results demonstrate that the disease transmission rate β and exogenous reinfection rate α plays an important role to change the qualitative dynamics of TB. The disease transmission rate β give rises to the possibility of backward bifurcation for R0 < 1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria one of which is stable and another one is unstable. Our analysis suggests that R0 < 1 may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the disease. We also investigate that our TB transmission model undergoes Hopf-bifurcation with respect to the contact rate β and the exogenous reinfection rate α. We conducted some numerical simulations to support our analytical findings.

  12. Influence of Shaft Torsional Stiffness on Dynamic Response of Four-Stage Main Transmission System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic response analysis has potential for increasing fatigue life of the components in the transmission of a multistage main transmission system. The calculated data can demonstrate the influence of shaft torsional stiffness on dynamic characteristics of the system. Detecting key shafts of the system and analyzing their sensitivity are important for the design of four-stage helicopter gear box. Lumped mass method is applied for dynamic modeling and Fourier method is used to solve differential equation of the system. Results of the analysis indicate that key shafts can be designed carefully to improve the performance of the transmission system.

  13. A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2017-01-01

    and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

  15. Dynamic Strategic Information Transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Mikhail Golosov; Vasiliki Skreta; Aleh Tsyvinski; Andrea Wilson

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies strategic information transmission in a dynamic environment where, each period, a privately informed expert sends a message and a decision maker takes an action. Our main result is that, in contrast to a static environment, full information revelation is possible. The gradual revelation of information and the eventual full revelation is supported by the dynamic rewards and punishments. The construction of a fully revealing equilibrium relies on two key features. The first f...

  16. The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yunhwan; Lee, Sunmi; Chu, Chaeshin; Choe, Seoyun; Hong, Saeme; Shin, Youngseo

    2016-02-01

    The outbreak of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was one of the major events in South Korea in 2015. In particular, this study pays attention to formulating a mathematical model for MERS transmission dynamics and estimating transmission rates. Incidence data of MERS-CoV from the government authority was analyzed for the first aim and a mathematical model was built and analyzed for the second aim of the study. A mathematical model for MERS-CoV transmission dynamics is used to estimate the transmission rates in two periods due to the implementation of intensive interventions. Using the estimates of the transmission rates, the basic reproduction number was estimated in two periods. Due to the superspreader, the basic reproduction number was very large in the first period; however, the basic reproduction number of the second period has reduced significantly after intensive interventions. It turned out to be the intensive isolation and quarantine interventions that were the most critical factors that prevented the spread of the MERS outbreak. The results are expected to be useful to devise more efficient intervention strategies in the future.

  17. Environmental transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans drives dynamics of Buruli ulcer in endemic regions of Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garchitorena, Andrés; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Texier, Gaëtan; Landier, Jordi; Eyangoh, Sara; Bonds, Matthew H.; Guégan, Jean-François; Roche, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    Buruli Ulcer is a devastating skin disease caused by the pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. Emergence and distribution of Buruli ulcer cases is clearly linked to aquatic ecosystems, but the specific route of transmission of M. ulcerans to humans remains unclear. Relying on the most detailed field data in space and time on M. ulcerans and Buruli ulcer available today, we assess the relative contribution of two potential transmission routes -environmental and water bug transmission- to the dynamics of Buruli ulcer in two endemic regions of Cameroon. The temporal dynamics of Buruli ulcer incidence are explained by estimating rates of different routes of transmission in mathematical models. Independently, we also estimate statistical models of the different transmission pathways on the spatial distribution of Buruli ulcer. The results of these two independent approaches are corroborative and suggest that environmental transmission pathways explain the temporal and spatial patterns of Buruli ulcer in our endemic areas better than the water bug transmission.

  18. The influence of engine/transmission/governor on tilting proprotor aircraft dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W.

    1975-01-01

    An analytical model is developed for the dynamics of a tilting proprotor aircraft engine and drive train, including a rotor speed governor and interconnect shaft. The dynamic stability of a proprotor and cantilever wing is calculated, including the engine-transmission-governor model. It is concluded that the rotor behaves much as if windmilling as far as its dynamic behavior is concerned, with some influence of the turboshaft engine inertia and damping. The interconnect shaft has a significant influence on the antisymmetric dynamics of proprotor aircraft. The proprotor aerodynamics model is extended to include reverse flow, and a refinement on the method used to calculate the kinematic pitch-bending coupling of the blade is developed.

  19. Dynamic analysis of spiral bevel and hypoid gears with high-order transmission errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J. J.; Shi, Z. H.; Zhang, H.; Li, T. X.; Nie, S. W.; Wei, B. Y.

    2018-03-01

    A new gear surface modification methodology based on curvature synthesis is proposed in this study to improve the transmission performance. The generated high-order transmission error (TE) for spiral bevel and hypoid gears is proved to reduce the vibration of geared-rotor system. The method is comprised of the following steps: Firstly, the fully conjugate gear surfaces with pinion flank modified according to the predesigned relative transmission movement are established based on curvature correction. Secondly, a 14-DOF geared-rotor system model considering backlash nonlinearity is used to evaluate the effect of different orders of TE on the dynamic performance a hypoid gear transmission system. For case study, numerical simulation is performed to illustrate the dynamic response of hypoid gear pair with parabolic, fourth-order and sixth-order transmission error derived. The results show that the parabolic TE curve has higher peak to peak amplitude compared to the other two types of TE. Thus, the excited dynamic response also shows larger amplitude at response peaks. Dynamic responses excited by fourth and sixth order TE also demonstrate distinct response components due to their different TE period which is expected to generate different sound quality or other acoustic characteristics.

  20. Research on investment decisions model of trans-regional transmission network based on the theory of NPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zai, Wenjiao; Wang, Bo; Liu, Jichun; Shi, Haobo; Zeng, Pingliang

    2018-02-01

    The investment decision model of trans-regional transmission network in the context of Global Energy Internet was studied in this paper. The key factors affecting the trans-regional transmission network investment income: the income tax rate, the loan interest rate, the expected return on investment of the investment subject, the per capita GDP and so on were considered in the transmission network investment income model. First, according to the principle of system dynamics, the causality diagram of key factors was constructed. Then, the dynamic model of transmission investment decision was established. A case study of the power transmission network between China and Mongolia, through the simulation of the system dynamic model, the influence of the above key factors on the investment returns was analyzed, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was proved.

  1. Frequency-Dependent Disease Transmission and the Dynamics of the Silene-Ustilago Host-Pathogen System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thrall, P.H.; Biere, A.; Uyenoyama, M.K.

    1995-01-01

    Models incorporating density-dependent disease transmission functions generally provide a good fit for airborne and directly transmitted bacterial or viral diseases. However, the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted and vector-borne diseases are likely to be frequency- rather than density-

  2. Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and

  3. Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

    2015-08-01

    A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

  4. A unified modeling and control design for precision transmission system with friction and backlash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiulan Bao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The structural flexibility, nonlinear friction, and backlash are the major factors limiting the control performance of precision transmission systems. If uncompensated, these factors compromise the positioning and tracking accuracy of precision transmission systems and even cause limit cycles and oscillation. In this article, a framework for integrated design from dynamic modeling to controller design is proposed. A multi-state dynamic model is presented, which can unify the modeling for a multi-state, discontinuous system including the motor state, the motion state, the mechanical contact state, and the friction state. Then, a control design method related to the dynamic modeling using perturbation separation of the model parameters is presented. Using the proposed modeling method, a continuous dynamic model is established to include all different partition models. The model comprehensively describes the mechanical and electrical characteristics of the precision transmission system. A robust controller is designed using the proposed control method. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed modeling method is accurate and the proposed control method significantly improves accuracy and robustness of the controller compared to traditional control methods.

  5. Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlofske, Sarah A; Flaxman, Samuel M; Joseph, Maxwell B; Fenton, Andy; Melbourne, Brett A; Johnson, Pieter T J

    2018-05-01

    Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

  6. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay M Beck-Johnson

    Full Text Available The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.

  7. Deterministic and stochastic CTMC models from Zika disease transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zevika, Mona; Soewono, Edy

    2018-03-01

    Zika infection is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases in the world. Zika virus (ZIKV) is transmitted by many Aedes-type mosquitoes including Aedes aegypti. Pregnant women with the Zika virus are at risk of having a fetus or infant with a congenital defect and suffering from microcephaly. Here, we formulate a Zika disease transmission model using two approaches, a deterministic model and a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. The basic reproduction ratio is constructed from a deterministic model. Meanwhile, the CTMC stochastic model yields an estimate of the probability of extinction and outbreaks of Zika disease. Dynamical simulations and analysis of the disease transmission are shown for the deterministic and stochastic models.

  8. Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

    2015-01-01

    The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

  9. Two profitless delays for an SEIRS epidemic disease model with vertical transmission and pulse vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Xinzhu; Jiao Jianjun; Chen Lansun

    2009-01-01

    Since the investigation of impulsive delay differential equations is beginning, the literature on delay epidemic models with pulse vaccination is not extensive. In this paper, we propose a new SEIRS epidemic disease model with two profitless delays and vertical transmission, and analyze the dynamics behaviors of the model under pulse vaccination. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain a 'infection-free' periodic solution, further, show that the 'infection-free' periodic solution is globally attractive when some parameters of the model are under appropriate conditions. Using a new modeling method, we obtain sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic model with pulse vaccination. We show that time delays, pulse vaccination and vertical transmission can bring different effects on the dynamics behaviors of the model by numerical analysis. Our results also show the delays are 'profitless'. In this paper, the main feature is to introduce two discrete time delays, vertical transmission and impulse into SEIRS epidemic model and to give pulse vaccination strategies.

  10. Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeftner, J.; Ebner, W.

    2017-12-01

    Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this

  11. High resolution transmission spectroscopy as a diagnostic for Jovian exoplanet atmospheres: constraints from theoretical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kempton, Eliza M.-R. [Department of Physics, Grinnell College, Grinnell, IA 50112 (United States); Perna, Rosalba [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794 (United States); Heng, Kevin, E-mail: kemptone@grinnell.edu [University of Bern, Center for Space and Habitability, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland)

    2014-11-01

    We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model Jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9-55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple one-dimensional (1D) models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blueshifts of up to 3 km s{sup –1}, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. We find only minor differences between transmission spectra for atmospheres with temperature inversions and those without. Compared to 1D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption

  12. Transmission dynamic range in chest radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemmers, H.E.A.S.J.; Schultze Kool, L.J.; van Elburg, H.J.; Boelens, F.

    1989-01-01

    Due to the large difference in transmission between the lung area and the mediastinum, the human chest is a challenging object for radiographic imaging. This study is performed in order to define the dynamic range needed for a chest imaging chain. Eight hundred seventy-five consecutive outpatients were imaged with a prototype AMBER (advanced multiple beam equalization radiography) unit at 141 kVp. The equalization facility was disabled, allowing for the simultaneous capture of a film image and a digital dataset representing the local patient transmission in fields of approximately 2x2 cm. The datasets were analyzed to obtain the relation between the average transmission distribution in a subset of the population and physical parameters characterizing this subset, such as body weight or length

  13. Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oraby, Tamer; Vasilyeva, Olga; Krewski, Daniel; Lutscher, Frithjof

    2014-01-07

    Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD

  14. Mathematical Modelling of Bacterial Meningitis Transmission Dynamics with Control Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination and treatment are the most effective ways of controlling the transmission of most infectious diseases. While vaccination helps susceptible individuals to build either a long-term immunity or short-term immunity, treatment reduces the number of disease-induced deaths and the number of infectious individuals in a community/nation. In this paper, a nonlinear deterministic model with time-dependent controls has been proposed to describe the dynamics of bacterial meningitis in a population. The model is shown to exhibit a unique globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium E0, when the effective reproduction number RVT≤1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium E1, when RVT>1; and it exhibits a transcritical bifurcation at RVT=1. Carriers have been shown (by Tornado plot to have a higher chance of spreading the infection than those with clinical symptoms who will sometimes be bound to bed during the acute phase of the infection. In order to find the best strategy for minimizing the number of carriers and ill individuals and the cost of control implementation, an optimal control problem is set up by defining a Lagrangian function L to be minimized subject to the proposed model. Numerical simulation of the optimal problem demonstrates that the best strategy to control bacterial meningitis is to combine vaccination with other interventions (such as treatment and public health education. Additionally, this research suggests that stakeholders should press hard for the production of existing/new vaccines and antibiotics and their disbursement to areas that are most affected by bacterial meningitis, especially Sub-Saharan Africa; furthermore, individuals who live in communities where the environment is relatively warm (hot/moisture are advised to go for vaccination against bacterial meningitis.

  15. Progress and monitoring system on compression and transmission technologies of dynamic image

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Hiroyuki; Saijo, Nobuyuki; Nakajo, Ken

    2001-01-01

    The Toshiba Corporation developed a real-time dynamic image transmission matched with quality of transmission circuit by using MPEG-4 which was recent international standard system for the dynamic image coding system. Concretely, this system made possible on real-time dynamic image transmission even at transmission on wireless circuit such as portable telephone, PHS, wireless LAN, and so on, at viewpoint of the mobile communication. And, by using the wireless circuit, it could be built without any limit of transmission cable, to realize its layout-free establishment. In addition, this system uses only image for communication without using voice, and some devices were carried out to upgrade image and frame speed as possible. Here were described on outlines of transmission system and principle of detection MPEG-4, and function and application of monitoring system using this system. (G.K.)

  16. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Asher

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR disease modeling approaches and allows for the flexible consideration of outbreaks with complex trajectories of disease dynamics. Keywords: Ebola, Forecasting, Mathematical modeling, Bayesian inference

  17. Dynamic synthesis for the energy transmission systems long term planning; Sintese dinamica para o planejamento a longo prazo de sistemas de transmissao de energia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salles Filho, Anirio

    1988-12-01

    An automation methodology for dynamic synthesis of electric power transmission network is presented. The dynamic synthesis problem is formulated by an optimization mathematical model. The use of a Lagrangian Relaxation strategy allows to decompose the dynamic problem in a simpler static subproblems sequence. The developed model goal is to establish options of system expansion that minimize the investments total costs and satisfy the increasing demand in time. The method is tested in transmission networks Brazilian system and the obtained results show the utility of a dynamic synthesis tool to assist in complex task of planing the transmission system expansion.

  18. Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

    2017-05-01

    In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A review of malaria transmission dynamics in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Malaria continues to be a major health problem in more than 100 endemic countries located primarily in tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world. Malaria transmission is a dynamic process and involves many interlinked factors, from uncontrollable natural environmental conditions to man-made disturbances to nature. Almost half of the population at risk of malaria lives in forest areas. Forests are hot beds of malaria transmission as they provide conditions such as vegetation cover, temperature, rainfall and humidity conditions that are conducive to distribution and survival of malaria vectors. Forests often lack infrastructure and harbor tribes with distinct genetic traits, socio-cultural beliefs and practices that greatly influence malaria transmission dynamics. Here we summarize the various topographical, entomological, parasitological, human ecological and socio-economic factors, which are crucial and shape malaria transmission in forested areas. An in-depth understanding and synthesis of the intricate relationship of these parameters in achieving better malaria control in various types of forest ecosystems is emphasized. PMID:24912923

  20. Modeling of temperature profiles in an environmental transmission electron microscope using computational fluid dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Peter Mølgaard; Jensen, Anker Degn; Hansen, Thomas Willum

    2015-01-01

    The temperature and velocity field, pressure distribution, and the temperature variation across the sample region inside an environmental transmission electron microscope (ETEM) have been modeled by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Heating the sample area by a furnace type TEM holder...... gives rise to temperature gradients over the sample area. Three major mechanisms have been identified with respect to heat transfer in the sample area: radiation from the grid, conduction in the grid, and conduction in the gas. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the sample temperature...... was affected by the conductivity of the gas, the emissivity of the sample grid, and the conductivity of the grid. Ideally the grid should be polished and made from a material with good conductivity, e.g. copper. With hydrogen gas, which has the highest conductivity of the gases studied, the temperature...

  1. Engineering science research issues in high power density transmission dynamics for aerospace applications. [rotorcraft geared rotors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.

    1993-01-01

    This paper discusses analytical and experimental approaches that will be needed to understand dynamic, vibro-acoustic and design characteristics of high power density rotorcraft transmissions. Complexities associated with mathematical modeling of such systems will be discussed. An overview of research work planned during the next several years will be presented, with emphasis on engineering science issues such as gear contact mechanics, multi-mesh drive dynamics, parameter uncertainties, vibration transmission through bearings, and vibro-acoustic characteristics of geared rotor systems and housing-mount structures. A few examples of work in progress are cited.

  2. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  3. Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSmidt, Hans A.; Smith, Edward C.; Bill, Robert C.; Wang, Kon-Well

    2013-01-01

    This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean

  4. Dynamic Reliability Analysis of Gear Transmission System of Wind Turbine in Consideration of Randomness of Loadings and Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic model of gear transmission system of wind turbine is built with consideration of randomness of loads and parameters. The dynamic response of the system is obtained using the theory of random sampling and the Runge-Kutta method. According to rain flow counting principle, the dynamic meshing forces are converted into a series of luffing fatigue load spectra. The amplitude and frequency of the equivalent stress are obtained using equivalent method of Geber quadratic curve. Moreover, the dynamic reliability model of components and system is built according to the theory of probability of cumulative fatigue damage. The system reliability with the random variation of parameters is calculated and the influence of random parameters on dynamic reliability of components is analyzed. In the end, the results of the proposed method are compared with that of Monte Carlo method. This paper can be instrumental in the design of wind turbine gear transmission system with more advantageous dynamic reliability.

  5. Multi-scale modelling of supercapacitors: From molecular simulations to a transmission line model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pean, C.; Rotenberg, B.; Simon, P.; Salanne, M.

    2016-09-01

    We perform molecular dynamics simulations of a typical nanoporous-carbon based supercapacitor. The organic electrolyte consists in 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium and hexafluorophosphate ions dissolved in acetonitrile. We simulate systems at equilibrium, for various applied voltages. This allows us to determine the relevant thermodynamic (capacitance) and transport (in-pore resistivities) properties. These quantities are then injected in a transmission line model for testing its ability to predict the charging properties of the device. The results from this macroscopic model are in good agreement with non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, which validates its use for interpreting electrochemical impedance experiments.

  6. Research on Dynamic Models and Performances of Shield Tunnel Boring Machine Cutterhead Driving System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianhong Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A general nonlinear time-varying (NLTV dynamic model and linear time-varying (LTV dynamic model are presented for shield tunnel boring machine (TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. Different gear backlashes and mesh damped and transmission errors are considered in the NLTV dynamic model. The corresponding multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO state space models are also presented. Through analyzing the linear dynamic model, the optimal reducer ratio (ORR and optimal transmission ratio (OTR are obtained for the shield TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. The NLTV and LTV dynamic models are numerically simulated, and the effects of physical parameters under various conditions of NLTV dynamic model are analyzed. Physical parameters such as the load torque, gear backlash and transmission error, gear mesh stiffness and damped, pinions inertia and damped, large gear inertia and damped, and motor rotor inertia and damped are investigated in detail to analyze their effects on dynamic response and performances of the shield TBM cutterhead driving system. Some preliminary approaches are proposed to improve dynamic performances of the cutterhead driving system, and dynamic models will provide a foundation for shield TBM cutterhead driving system's cutterhead fault diagnosis, motion control, and torque synchronous control.

  7. Mathematical models for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control: Challenges and prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaliannagounder Krishnamoorthy

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mathematical models developed for describing the dynamics of transmission, infection, disease and control of lymphatic filariasis (LF gained momentum following the 1997 World Health Assembly resolution and the launching of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF in 2000. Model applications could provide valuable inputs for making decisions while implementing large scale programmes. However these models need to be evaluated at different epidemiological settings for optimization and fine-tuning with new knowledge and understanding on infection/disease dynamics. Discussion EPIFIL and LYMFASIM are the two mathematical simulation models currently available for lymphatic filariasis transmission and control. Both models have been used for prediction and evaluation of control programmes under research settings. Their widespread application in evaluating large-scale elimination programmes warrants validation of assumptions governing the dynamics of infection and disease in different epidemiological settings. Furthermore, the predictive power of the models for decision support can be enhanced by generating knowledge on some important issues that pose challenges and incorporating such knowledge into the models. We highlight factors related to the efficacy of the drugs of choice, their mode of action, and the possibility that drug resistance may develop; the role of vector-parasite combinations; the magnitude of transmission thresholds; host-parasite interactions and their effects on the dynamics of infection and immunity; parasite biology, and progression to LF-associated disease. Summary The two mathematical models developed offer potential decision making tools for transmission and control of LF. In view of the goals of the GPELF, the predictive power of these models needs to be enhanced for their wide-spread application in large scale programmes. Assimilation and translation of new information into the models is

  8. Model-based dynamic control and optimization of gas networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofsten, Kai

    2001-07-01

    This work contributes to the research on control, optimization and simulation of gas transmission systems to support the dispatch personnel at gas control centres for the decision makings in the daily operation of the natural gas transportation systems. Different control and optimization strategies have been studied. The focus is on the operation of long distance natural gas transportation systems. Stationary optimization in conjunction with linear model predictive control using state space models is proposed for supply security, the control of quality parameters and minimization of transportation costs for networks offering transportation services. The result from the stationary optimization together with a reformulation of a simplified fluid flow model formulates a linear dynamic optimization model. This model is used in a finite time control and state constrained linear model predictive controller. The deviation from the control and the state reference determined from the stationary optimization is penalized quadratically. Because of the time varying status of infrastructure, the control space is also generally time varying. When the average load is expected to change considerably, a new stationary optimization is performed, giving a new state and control reference together with a new dynamic model that is used for both optimization and state estimation. Another proposed control strategy is a control and output constrained nonlinear model predictive controller for the operation of gas transmission systems. Here, the objective is also the security of the supply, quality control and minimization of transportation costs. An output vector is defined, which together with a control vector are both penalized quadratically from their respective references in the objective function. The nonlinear model predictive controller can be combined with a stationary optimization. At each sampling instant, a non convex nonlinear programming problem is solved giving a local minimum

  9. Two time-delay dynamic model on the transmission of malicious signals in wireless sensor network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshri, Neha; Mishra, Bimal Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Role of time delay to reduce the adversary effect in WSN is explored. • Model with two time delays is proposed to analyse spread of malicious signal in WSN. • Dynamical behaviour of worm-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is shown. • Threshold condition for switch of stability are obtained analytically. • Relation between stability and the two time delays is also explored. - Abstract: Deployed in a hostile environment, motes of a Wireless sensor network (WSN) could be easily compromised by the attackers because of several constraints such as limited processing capabilities, memory space, and limited battery life time etc. While transmitting the data to their neighbour motes within the network, motes are easily compromised due to resource constraints. Here time delay can play an efficient role to reduce the adversary effect on motes. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) with two time delays to describe the transmission dynamics of malicious signals in wireless sensor network. The first delay accounts for an exposed (latent) period while the second delay is for the temporary immunity period due to multiple worm outbreaks. The dynamical behaviour of worm-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is shown from the point of stability which switches under some threshold condition specified by the basic reproduction number. Our results show that the global properties of equilibria also depends on the threshold condition and that latent and temporary immunity period in a mote does not affect the stability, but they play a positive role to control malicious attack. Moreover, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis

  10. Broad patterns in domestic vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics: synanthropic animals and vector control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Jennifer K; Bartsch, Sarah M; Lee, Bruce Y; Dobson, Andrew P

    2015-10-22

    Chagas disease (caused by Trypanosoma cruzi) is the most important neglected tropical disease (NTD) in Latin America, infecting an estimated 5.7 million people in the 21 countries where it is endemic. It is one of the NTDs targeted for control and elimination by the 2020 London Declaration goals, with the first goal being to interrupt intra-domiciliary vector-borne T. cruzi transmission. A key question in domestic T. cruzi transmission is the role that synanthropic animals play in T. cruzi transmission to humans. Here, we ask, (1) do synanthropic animals need to be targeted in Chagas disease prevention policies?, and (2) how does the presence of animals affect the efficacy of vector control? We developed a simple mathematical model to simulate domestic vector-borne T. cruzi transmission and to specifically examine the interaction between the presence of synanthropic animals and effects of vector control. We used the model to explore how the interactions between triatomine bugs, humans and animals impact the number and proportion of T. cruzi-infected bugs and humans. We then examined how T. cruzi dynamics change when control measures targeting vector abundance are introduced into the system. We found that the presence of synanthropic animals slows the speed of T. cruzi transmission to humans, and increases the sensitivity of T. cruzi transmission dynamics to vector control measures at comparable triatomine carrying capacities. However, T. cruzi transmission is amplified when triatomine carrying capacity increases with the abundance of syntathoropic hosts. Our results suggest that in domestic T. cruzi transmission scenarios where no vector control measures are in place, a reduction in synanthropic animals may slow T. cruzi transmission to humans, but it would not completely eliminate transmission. To reach the 2020 goal of interrupting intra-domiciliary T. cruzi transmission, it is critical to target vector populations. Additionally, where vector control measures

  11. Modelling of Rabies Transmission Dynamics Using Optimal Control Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine an optimal way of eradicating rabies transmission from dogs into the human population, using preexposure prophylaxis (vaccination and postexposure prophylaxis (treatment due to public education. We obtain the disease-free equilibrium, the endemic equilibrium, the stability, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal control model. Using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS, the forward-backward sweep scheme and the fourth-order Range-Kutta numerical method predict that the global alliance for rabies control’s aim of working to eliminate deaths from canine rabies by 2030 is attainable through mass vaccination of susceptible dogs and continuous use of pre- and postexposure prophylaxis in humans.

  12. [Modelling the effect of local climatic variability on dengue transmission in Medellin (Colombia) by means of time series analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rúa-Uribe, Guillermo L; Suárez-Acosta, Carolina; Chauca, José; Ventosilla, Palmira; Almanza, Rita

    2013-09-01

    Dengue fever is a major impact on public health vector-borne disease, and its transmission is influenced by entomological, sociocultural and economic factors. Additionally, climate variability plays an important role in the transmission dynamics. A large scientific consensus has indicated that the strong association between climatic variables and disease could be used to develop models to explain the incidence of the disease. To develop a model that provides a better understanding of dengue transmission dynamics in Medellin and predicts increases in the incidence of the disease. The incidence of dengue fever was used as dependent variable, and weekly climatic factors (maximum, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) as independent variables. Expert Modeler was used to develop a model to better explain the behavior of the disease. Climatic variables with significant association to the dependent variable were selected through ARIMA models. The model explains 34% of observed variability. Precipitation was the climatic variable showing statistically significant association with the incidence of dengue fever, but with a 20 weeks delay. In Medellin, the transmission of dengue fever was influenced by climate variability, especially precipitation. The strong association dengue fever/precipitation allowed the construction of a model to help understand dengue transmission dynamics. This information will be useful to develop appropriate and timely strategies for dengue control.

  13. Correction for dynamic bias error in transmission measurements of void fraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, P.; Sundén, E. Andersson; Svärd, S. Jacobsson; Sjöstrand, H.

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic bias errors occur in transmission measurements, such as X-ray, gamma, or neutron radiography or tomography. This is observed when the properties of the object are not stationary in time and its average properties are assessed. The nonlinear measurement response to changes in transmission within the time scale of the measurement implies a bias, which can be difficult to correct for. A typical example is the tomographic or radiographic mapping of void content in dynamic two-phase flow systems. In this work, the dynamic bias error is described and a method to make a first-order correction is derived. A prerequisite for this method is variance estimates of the system dynamics, which can be obtained using high-speed, time-resolved data acquisition. However, in the absence of such acquisition, a priori knowledge might be used to substitute the time resolved data. Using synthetic data, a void fraction measurement case study has been simulated to demonstrate the performance of the suggested method. The transmission length of the radiation in the object under study and the type of fluctuation of the void fraction have been varied. Significant decreases in the dynamic bias error were achieved to the expense of marginal decreases in precision.

  14. HIV Transmission Dynamics Among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Eduardo E; Oster, Alexandra M; Xu, Songli; Wertheim, Joel O; Hernandez, Angela L

    2017-12-15

    In the United States (US), foreign-born persons are disproportionately affected by HIV and differ epidemiologically from US-born persons with diagnosed HIV infection. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons is important to guide HIV prevention efforts for these populations. We conducted molecular transmission network analysis to describe HIV transmission dynamics among foreign-born persons with diagnosed HIV. Using HIV-1 polymerase nucleotide sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System for persons with diagnosed HIV infection during 2001-2013, we constructed a genetic distance-based transmission network using HIV-TRACE and examined the birth region of potential transmission partners in this network. Of 77,686 people, 12,064 (16%) were foreign born. Overall, 28% of foreign-born persons linked to at least one other person in the transmission network. Of potential transmission partners, 62% were born in the United States, 31% were born in the same region as the foreign-born person, and 7% were born in another region of the world. Most transmission partners of male foreign-born persons (63%) were born in the United States, whereas most transmission partners of female foreign-borns (57%) were born in their same world region. These finding suggests that a majority of HIV infections among foreign-born persons in our network occurred after immigrating to the United States. Efforts to prevent HIV infection among foreign-born persons in the United States should include information of the transmission networks in which these individuals acquire or transmit HIV to develop more targeted HIV prevention interventions.

  15. Transmission dynamics of the recently-identified BYD virus causing duck egg-drop syndrome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen K Vaidya

    Full Text Available Baiyangdian (BYD virus is a recently-identified mosquito-borne flavivirus that causes severe disease in ducks, with extremely rapid transmission, up to 15% mortality within 10 days and 90% reduction in egg production on duck farms within 5 days of infection. Because of the zoonotic nature of flaviviruses, the characterization of BYD virus and its epidemiology are important public health concerns. Here, we develop a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of this novel virus. We validate the model against BYD outbreak data collected from duck farms in Southeast China, as well as experimental data obtained from an animal facility. Based on our model, the basic reproductive number of BYD virus is high (R(0 = 21 indicating that this virus is highly transmissible, consistent with the dramatic epidemiology observed in BYDV-affected duck farms. Our results indicate that younger ducks are more vulnerable to BYD disease and that ducks infected with BYD virus reduce egg production (to about 33% on average for about 3 days post-infection; after 3 days infected ducks are no longer able to produce eggs. Using our model, we predict that control measures which reduce contact between mosquitoes and ducks such as mosquito nets are more effective than insecticides.

  16. Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengchen Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? METHODS AND FINDINGS: To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21% in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%, between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a

  17. Dose-response relationships for environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew F Brouwer

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Environmentally mediated infectious disease transmission models provide a mechanistic approach to examining environmental interventions for outbreaks, such as water treatment or surface decontamination. The shift from the classical SIR framework to one incorporating the environment requires codifying the relationship between exposure to environmental pathogens and infection, i.e. the dose-response relationship. Much of the work characterizing the functional forms of dose-response relationships has used statistical fit to experimental data. However, there has been little research examining the consequences of the choice of functional form in the context of transmission dynamics. To this end, we identify four properties of dose-response functions that should be considered when selecting a functional form: low-dose linearity, scalability, concavity, and whether it is a single-hit model. We find that i middle- and high-dose data do not constrain the low-dose response, and different dose-response forms that are equally plausible given the data can lead to significant differences in simulated outbreak dynamics; ii the choice of how to aggregate continuous exposure into discrete doses can impact the modeled force of infection; iii low-dose linear, concave functions allow the basic reproduction number to control global dynamics; and iv identifiability analysis offers a way to manage multiple sources of uncertainty and leverage environmental monitoring to make inference about infectivity. By applying an environmentally mediated infectious disease model to the 1993 Milwaukee Cryptosporidium outbreak, we demonstrate that environmental monitoring allows for inference regarding the infectivity of the pathogen and thus improves our ability to identify outbreak characteristics such as pathogen strain.

  18. Modeling of temperature profiles in an environmental transmission electron microscope using computational fluid dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mølgaard Mortensen, Peter; Willum Hansen, Thomas; Birkedal Wagner, Jakob; Degn Jensen, Anker

    2015-01-01

    The temperature and velocity field, pressure distribution, and the temperature variation across the sample region inside an environmental transmission electron microscope (ETEM) have been modeled by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Heating the sample area by a furnace type TEM holder gives rise to temperature gradients over the sample area. Three major mechanisms have been identified with respect to heat transfer in the sample area: radiation from the grid, conduction in the grid, and conduction in the gas. A parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the sample temperature was affected by the conductivity of the gas, the emissivity of the sample grid, and the conductivity of the grid. Ideally the grid should be polished and made from a material with good conductivity, e.g. copper. With hydrogen gas, which has the highest conductivity of the gases studied, the temperature difference over the TEM grid is less than 5 °C, at what must be considered typical conditions, and it is concluded that the conditions on the sample grid in the ETEM can be considered as isothermal during general use. - Highlights: • Computational fluid dynamics used for mapping flow and temperature in ETEM setup. • Temperature gradient across TEM grid in furnace based heating holder very small in ETEM. • Conduction from TEM grid and gas in addition to radiation from TEM grid most important. • Pressure drop in ETEM limited to the pressure limiting apertures

  19. Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of Cutterhead Driving System in Tunnel Boring Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Failure of cutterhead driving system (CDS of tunnel boring machine (TBM often occurs under shock and vibration conditions. To investigate the dynamic characteristics and reduce system vibration further, an electromechanical coupling model of CDS is established which includes the model of direct torque control (DTC system for three-phase asynchronous motor and purely torsional dynamic model of multistage gear transmission system. The proposed DTC model can provide driving torque just as the practical inverter motor operates so that the influence of motor operating behavior will not be erroneously estimated. Moreover, nonlinear gear meshing factors, such as time-variant mesh stiffness and transmission error, are involved in the dynamic model. Based on the established nonlinear model of CDS, vibration modes can be classified into three types, that is, rigid motion mode, rotational vibration mode, and planet vibration mode. Moreover, dynamic responses under actual driving torque and idealized equivalent torque are compared, which reveals that the ripple of actual driving torque would aggravate vibration of gear transmission system. Influence index of torque ripple is proposed to show that vibration of system increases with torque ripple. This study provides useful guideline for antivibration design and motor control of CDS in TBM.

  20. Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2016-04-01

    A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, C-M; You, S-H; Cheng, Y-H

    2015-01-01

    Influenza poses a significant public health burden worldwide. Understanding how and to what extent people would change their behaviour in response to influenza outbreaks is critical for formulating public health policies. We incorporated the information-theoretic framework into a behaviour-influenza (BI) transmission dynamics system in order to understand the effects of individual behavioural change on influenza epidemics. We showed that information transmission of risk perception played a crucial role in the spread of health-seeking behaviour throughout influenza epidemics. Here a network BI model provides a new approach for understanding the risk perception spread and human behavioural change during disease outbreaks. Our study allows simultaneous consideration of epidemiological, psychological, and social factors as predictors of individual perception rates in behaviour-disease transmission systems. We suggest that a monitoring system with precise information on risk perception should be constructed to effectively promote health behaviours in preparation for emerging disease outbreaks.

  2. Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam J Kucharski

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6-4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32-17.9% of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91-97% of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12-20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases.

  3. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  4. Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krantz, Timothy L.

    1994-06-01

    Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

  5. Control-Oriented Models for Real-Time Simulation of Automotive Transmission Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cavina N.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A control-oriented model of a Dual Clutch Transmission (DCT was developed for real-time Hardware In the Loop (HIL applications, to support model-based development of the DCT controller and to systematically test its performance. The model is an innovative attempt to reproduce the fast dynamics of the actuation system while maintaining a simulation step size large enough for real-time applications. The model comprehends a detailed physical description of hydraulic circuit, clutches, synchronizers and gears, and simplified vehicle and internal combustion engine sub-models. As the oil circulating in the system has a large bulk modulus, the pressure dynamics are very fast, possibly causing instability in a real-time simulation; the same challenge involves the servo valves dynamics, due to the very small masses of the moving elements. Therefore, the hydraulic circuit model has been modified and simplified without losing physical validity, in order to adapt it to the real-time simulation requirements. The results of offline simulations have been compared to on-board measurements to verify the validity of the developed model, which was then implemented in a HIL system and connected to the Transmission Control Unit (TCU. Several tests have been performed on the HIL simulator, to verify the TCU performance: electrical failure tests on sensors and actuators, hydraulic and mechanical failure tests on hydraulic valves, clutches and synchronizers, and application tests comprehending all the main features of the control actions performed by the TCU. Being based on physical laws, in every condition the model simulates a plausible reaction of the system. A test automation procedure has finally been developed to permit the execution of a pattern of tests without the interaction of the user; perfectly repeatable tests can be performed for non-regression verification, allowing the testing of new software releases in fully automatic mode.

  6. OISI dynamic end-to-end modeling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersten, Michael; Weidler, Alexander; Wilhelm, Rainer; Johann, Ulrich A.; Szerdahelyi, Laszlo

    2000-07-01

    The OISI Dynamic end-to-end modeling tool is tailored to end-to-end modeling and dynamic simulation of Earth- and space-based actively controlled optical instruments such as e.g. optical stellar interferometers. `End-to-end modeling' is meant to denote the feature that the overall model comprises besides optical sub-models also structural, sensor, actuator, controller and disturbance sub-models influencing the optical transmission, so that the system- level instrument performance due to disturbances and active optics can be simulated. This tool has been developed to support performance analysis and prediction as well as control loop design and fine-tuning for OISI, Germany's preparatory program for optical/infrared spaceborne interferometry initiated in 1994 by Dornier Satellitensysteme GmbH in Friedrichshafen.

  7. Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Control of Malaria in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Otieno

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes and analyses a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of malaria with four-time dependent control measures in Kenya: insecticide treated bed nets (ITNs, treatment, indoor residual spray (IRS, and intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp. We first considered constant control parameters and calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate existence and stability of equilibria as well as stability analysis. We proved that if R0≤1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in D. If R0>1, the unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable. The model also exhibits backward bifurcation at R0=1. If R0>1, the model admits a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of feasible region D. The sensitivity results showed that the most sensitive parameters are mosquito death rate and mosquito biting rates. We then consider the time-dependent control case and use Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle to derive the necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease using the proposed model. The existence of optimal control problem is proved. Numerical simulations of the optimal control problem using a set of reasonable parameter values suggest that the optimal control strategy for malaria control in endemic areas is the combined use of treatment and IRS; for epidemic prone areas is the use of treatment and IRS; for seasonal areas is the use of treatment; and for low risk areas is the use of ITNs and treatment. Control programs that follow these strategies can effectively reduce the spread of malaria disease in different malaria transmission settings in Kenya.

  8. Volterra representation enables modeling of complex synaptic nonlinear dynamics in large-scale simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Eric Y; Bouteiller, Jean-Marie C; Song, Dong; Baudry, Michel; Berger, Theodore W

    2015-01-01

    Chemical synapses are comprised of a wide collection of intricate signaling pathways involving complex dynamics. These mechanisms are often reduced to simple spikes or exponential representations in order to enable computer simulations at higher spatial levels of complexity. However, these representations cannot capture important nonlinear dynamics found in synaptic transmission. Here, we propose an input-output (IO) synapse model capable of generating complex nonlinear dynamics while maintaining low computational complexity. This IO synapse model is an extension of a detailed mechanistic glutamatergic synapse model capable of capturing the input-output relationships of the mechanistic model using the Volterra functional power series. We demonstrate that the IO synapse model is able to successfully track the nonlinear dynamics of the synapse up to the third order with high accuracy. We also evaluate the accuracy of the IO synapse model at different input frequencies and compared its performance with that of kinetic models in compartmental neuron models. Our results demonstrate that the IO synapse model is capable of efficiently replicating complex nonlinear dynamics that were represented in the original mechanistic model and provide a method to replicate complex and diverse synaptic transmission within neuron network simulations.

  9. Bifurcation analysis of dengue transmission model in Baguio City, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libatique, Criselda P.; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris J.; Addawe, Joel M.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we formulate a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue fever in Baguio City, Philippines. We analyzed the existence of the equilibria of the dengue model. We computed and obtained conditions for the existence of the equilibrium states. Stability analysis for the system is carried out for disease free equilibrium. We showed that the system becomes stable under certain conditions of the parameters. A particular parameter is taken and with the use of the Theory of Centre Manifold, the proposed model demonstrates a bifurcation phenomenon. We performed numerical simulation to verify the analytical results.

  10. Investigation of hydraulic transmission noise sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klop, Richard J.

    Advanced hydrostatic transmissions and hydraulic hybrids show potential in new market segments such as commercial vehicles and passenger cars. Such new applications regard low noise generation as a high priority, thus, demanding new quiet hydrostatic transmission designs. In this thesis, the aim is to investigate noise sources of hydrostatic transmissions to discover strategies for designing compact and quiet solutions. A model has been developed to capture the interaction of a pump and motor working in a hydrostatic transmission and to predict overall noise sources. This model allows a designer to compare noise sources for various configurations and to design compact and inherently quiet solutions. The model describes dynamics of the system by coupling lumped parameter pump and motor models with a one-dimensional unsteady compressible transmission line model. The model has been verified with dynamic pressure measurements in the line over a wide operating range for several system structures. Simulation studies were performed illustrating sensitivities of several design variables and the potential of the model to design transmissions with minimal noise sources. A semi-anechoic chamber has been designed and constructed suitable for sound intensity measurements that can be used to derive sound power. Measurements proved the potential to reduce audible noise by predicting and reducing both noise sources. Sound power measurements were conducted on a series hybrid transmission test bench to validate the model and compare predicted noise sources with sound power.

  11. Transmission dynamics of malaria in Nigeria. | Okwa | Annals of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Two of the problems of malaria parasite vector control in Nigeria are the diversity of Anopheline vectors and large size of the country. Anopheline distribution and transmission dynamics of malaria were therefore compared between four ecotypes in Nigeria during the rainy season. Methods: Polymerase chain ...

  12. Combining in situ transmission electron microscopy irradiation experiments with cluster dynamics modeling to study nanoscale defect agglomeration in structural metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Donghua; Wirth, Brian D.; Li Meimei; Kirk, Marquis A.

    2012-01-01

    We present a combinatorial approach that integrates state-of-the-art transmission electron microscopy (TEM) in situ irradiation experiments and high-performance computing techniques to study irradiation defect dynamics in metals. Here, we have studied the evolution of visible defect clusters in nanometer-thick molybdenum foils under 1 MeV krypton ion irradiation at 80 °C through both cluster dynamics modeling and in situ TEM experiments. The experimental details are reported elsewhere; we focus here on the details of model construction and comparing the model with the experiments. The model incorporates continuous production of point defects and/or small clusters, and the accompanying interactions, which include clustering, recombination and loss to the surfaces that result from the diffusion of the mobile defects. To account for the strong surface effect in thin TEM foils, the model includes one-dimensional spatial dependence along the foil depth, and explicitly treats the surfaces as black sinks. The rich amount of data (cluster number density and size distribution at a variety of foil thickness, irradiation dose and dose rate) offered by the advanced in situ experiments has allowed close comparisons with computer modeling and permitted significant validation and optimization of the model in terms of both physical model construct (damage production mode, identities of mobile defects) and parameterization (diffusivities of mobile defects). The optimized model exhibits good qualitative and quantitative agreement with the in situ TEM experiments. The combinatorial approach is expected to bring a unique opportunity for the study of radiation damage in structural materials.

  13. SAInt – A novel quasi-dynamic model for assessing security of supply in coupled gas and electricity transmission networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pambour, Kwabena Addo; Cakir Erdener, Burcin; Bolado-Lavin, Ricardo; Dijkema, Gerhard P.J.

    2017-01-01

    The integration of renewable energy sources into existing electric power systems is connected with an increased interdependence between natural gas and electricity transmission networks. To analyse this interdependence and its impact on security of supply, we developed a novel quasi-dynamic

  14. A data-driven model for influenza transmission incorporating media effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Lewis; Ross, Joshua V

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies have attempted to model the effect of mass media on the transmission of diseases such as influenza; however, quantitative data on media engagement has until recently been difficult to obtain. With the recent explosion of 'big data' coming from online social media and the like, large volumes of data on a population's engagement with mass media during an epidemic are becoming available to researchers. In this study, we combine an online dataset comprising millions of shared messages relating to influenza with traditional surveillance data on flu activity to suggest a functional form for the relationship between the two. Using this data, we present a simple deterministic model for influenza dynamics incorporating media effects, and show that such a model helps explain the dynamics of historical influenza outbreaks. Furthermore, through model selection we show that the proposed media function fits historical data better than other media functions proposed in earlier studies.

  15. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  16. Modelling parasite transmission in a grazing system: the importance of host behaviour and immunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    Full Text Available Parasitic helminths present one of the most pervasive challenges to grazing herbivores. Many macro-parasite transmission models focus on host physiological defence strategies, omitting more complex interactions between hosts and their environments. This work represents the first model that integrates both the behavioural and physiological elements of gastro-intestinal nematode transmission dynamics in a managed grazing system. A spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic model is developed, that incorporates both the hosts' immunological responses to parasitism, and key grazing behaviours including faecal avoidance. The results demonstrate that grazing behaviour affects both the timing and intensity of parasite outbreaks, through generating spatial heterogeneity in parasite risk and nutritional resources, and changing the timing of exposure to the parasites' free-living stages. The influence of grazing behaviour varies with the host-parasite combination, dependent on the development times of different parasite species and variations in host immune response. Our outputs include the counterintuitive finding that under certain conditions perceived parasite avoidance behaviours (faecal avoidance can increase parasite risk, for certain host-parasite combinations. Through incorporating the two-way interaction between infection dynamics and grazing behaviour, the potential benefits of parasite-induced anorexia are also demonstrated. Hosts with phenotypic plasticity in grazing behaviour, that make grazing decisions dependent on current parasite burden, can reduce infection with minimal loss of intake over the grazing season. This paper explores how both host behaviours and immunity influence macro-parasite transmission in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment. The magnitude and timing of parasite outbreaks is influenced by host immunity and behaviour, and the interactions between them; the incorporation of both regulatory processes

  17. Simulation of Dynamic Behavior of the Flexible Wheel of the Double Harmonic Gear Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Draghiţa Ianici

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the construction and functioning of a new type the harmonic gear transmission named double harmonic gear transmission, which can be used in the construction drives of industrial robots. In the second part of this paper is presented the dynamic analysis of the double harmonic gear transmission, which is based on the results of the numerical simulations of the flexible wheel in case of its deformation with a mechanical wave generator with disc cam. Investigation of dynamic behavior of the flexible toothed wheel was performed by using the finite element method in SolidWorks Simulation software.

  18. A Data Transmission Algorithm Based on Dynamic Grid Division for Coal Goaf Temperature Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available WSN (wireless sensor network is a perfect tool of temperature monitoring in coal goaf. Based on the three-zone theory of goaf, the GtmWSN model is proposed, and its dynamic features are analyzed. Accordingly, a data transmission scheme, named DTDGD, is worked out. Firstly, sink nodes conduct dynamic grid division on the GtmWSN according to virtual semicircle. Secondly, each node will confirm to which grid it belongs based on grid number. Finally, data will be delivered to sink nodes with greedy forward and hole avoidance. Simulation results and field data showed that the GtmWSN and DTDGD satisfied the lifetime need of goaf temperature monitoring.

  19. Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Begun

    Full Text Available The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development

  20. Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begun, Matt; Newall, Anthony T; Marks, Guy B; Wood, James G

    2013-01-01

    The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and

  1. Method of transmission of dynamic multibit digital images from micro-unmanned aerial vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrov, E. P.; Kharina, N. L.

    2018-01-01

    In connection with successful usage of nanotechnologies in remote sensing great attention is paid to the systems in micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (MUAVs) capable to provide high spatial resolution of dynamic multibit digital images (MDI). Limited energy resources on board the MUAV do not allow transferring a large amount of video information in the shortest possible time. It keeps back the broad development of MUAV. The search for methods to shorten the transmission time of dynamic MDIs from MUAV over the radio channel leads to the methods of MDI compression without computational operations onboard the MUAV. The known compression codecs of video information can not be applied because of the limited energy resources. In this paper we propose a method for reducing the transmission time of dynamic MDIs without computational operations and distortions onboard the MUAV. To develop the method a mathematical apparatus of the theory of conditional Markov processes with discrete arguments was used. On its basis a mathematical model for the transformation of the MDI represented by binary images (BI) in the MDI, consisting of groups of neighboring BIs (GBI) transmitted by multiphase (MP) signals, is constructed. The algorithm for multidimensional nonlinear filtering of MP signals is synthesized, realizing the statistical redundancy of the MDI to compensate for the noise stability losses caused by the use of MP signals.

  2. X-ray transmission movies of spontaneous dynamic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smilowitz, L.; Henson, B. F.; Holmes, M.; Novak, A.; Oschwald, D.; Dolgonos, P.; Qualls, B.

    2014-01-01

    We describe a new x-ray radiographic imaging system which allows for continuous x-ray transmission imaging of spontaneous dynamic events. We demonstrate this method on thermal explosions in three plastic bonded formulations of the energetic material octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine. We describe the x-ray imaging system and triggering developed to enable the continuous imaging of a thermal explosion

  3. A systematic review of transmission dynamic studies of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in non-hospital residential facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Kin On; Read, Jonathan M; Tang, Arthur; Chen, Hong; Riley, Steven; Kam, Kai Man

    2018-04-18

    Non-hospital residential facilities are important reservoirs for MRSA transmission. However, conclusions and public health implications drawn from the many mathematical models depicting nosocomial MRSA transmission may not be applicable to these settings. Therefore, we reviewed the MRSA transmission dynamics studies in defined non-hospital residential facilities to: (1) provide an overview of basic epidemiology which has been addressed; (2) identify future research direction; and (3) improve future model implementation. A review was conducted by searching related keywords in PUBMED without time restriction as well as internet searches via Google search engine. We included only articles describing the epidemiological transmission pathways of MRSA/community-associated MRSA within and between defined non-hospital residential settings. Among the 10 included articles, nursing homes (NHs) and correctional facilities (CFs) were two settings considered most frequently. Importation of colonized residents was a plausible reason for MRSA outbreaks in NHs, where MRSA was endemic without strict infection control interventions. The importance of NHs over hospitals in increasing nosocomial MRSA prevalence was highlighted. Suggested interventions in NHs included: appropriate staffing level, screening and decolonizing, and hand hygiene. On the other hand, the small population amongst inmates in CFs has no effect on MRSA community transmission. Included models ranged from system-level compartmental models to agent-based models. There was no consensus over the course of disease progression in these models, which were mainly featured with NH residents /CF inmates/ hospital patients as transmission pathways. Some parameters used by these models were outdated or unfit. Importance of NHs has been highlighted from these current studies addressing scattered aspects of MRSA epidemiology. However, the wide variety of non-hospital residential settings suggest that more work is needed before

  4. Dynamics of Pertussis Transmission in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magpantay, F. M. G.; Rohani, P.

    2015-01-01

    Past patterns of infectious disease transmission set the stage on which modern epidemiologic dynamics are played out. Here, we present a comprehensive account of pertussis (whooping cough) transmission in the United States during the early vaccine era. We analyzed recently digitized weekly incidence records from Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports from 1938 to 1955, when the whole-cell pertussis vaccine was rolled out, and related them to contemporary patterns of transmission and resurgence documented in monthly incidence data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We found that, during the early vaccine era, pertussis epidemics in US states could be categorized as 1) annual, 2) initially annual and later multiennial, or 3) multiennial. States with predominantly annual cycles tended to have higher per capita birth rates, more household crowding, more children per family, and lower rates of school attendance than the states with multiennial cycles. Additionally, states that exhibited annual epidemics during 1938–1955 have had the highest recent (2001–2010) incidence, while those states that transitioned from annual cycles to multiennial cycles have had relatively low recent incidence. Our study provides an extensive picture of pertussis epidemiology in the United States dating back to the onset of vaccination, a back-story that could aid epidemiologists in understanding contemporary transmission patterns. PMID:26022662

  5. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  6. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

    2015-03-01

    Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Analyzing the Dynamics of a Rumor Transmission Model with Incubation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang'an Huo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers a rumor transmission model with incubation that incorporates constant recruitment and has infectious force in the latent period and infected period. By carrying out a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium, we use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations which is based on the use of higher-order generalization of Bendixson’s criterion. It shows that either the number of rumor infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or the rumor persists. We prove that the transcritical bifurcation occurs at R0 crosses the bifurcation threshold R0=1 by projecting the flow onto the extended center manifold. Since the rumor endemic level at the equilibrium is a continuous function of R0, as a consequence for successful eradication of the rumor, one should simply reduce R0 continuously below the threshold value 1. Finally, the obtained results are numerically validated and then discussed from both the mathematical and the sociological perspectives.

  8. Dynamic modeling and analysis of load sharing characteristics of wind turbine gearbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengxing Yi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A coupled dynamic model, which contains helical gears-shafts-bearings for a wind turbine gearbox transmission system, was built considering nonlinear factors of the time-varying mesh stiffness, the external varying load, and the dynamic transmission error at first. The model is confirmed to be right after comparing the theoretical data with the experimental load sharing values, and also it is found that the static load sharing is conservative to evaluate the non-equilibrium effect of a planetary gear system. Besides, the analyzing results of the influence of average error and amplitude error on the load sharing show that the load sharing could be decreased if the error goes up a little. Then, by means of treating the static tracing point as the dynamic initial values, we analyzed the initial position’s influence on the load sharing of transmission system to provide a theoretical basis of load sharing control. Furthermore, we explored the influence of high-speed shaft position angle on the load sharing and the dynamic load factor of gears fixed on the parallel shafts. The results provide useful theoretical guidelines for the design of parallel shaft gear system in the wind turbines.

  9. Modeling and Validation of Environmental Suitability for Schistosomiasis Transmission Using Remote Sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; Poda, Jean-Noël; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Utzinger, Jürg; Raso, Giovanna

    2015-11-01

    Schistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health. We employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children. Environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire. A predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail

  10. Estimation of the dynamics and rate of transmission of classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hone, J; Pech, R; Yip, P

    1992-04-01

    Infectious diseases establish in a population of wildlife hosts when the number of secondary infections is greater than or equal to one. To estimate whether establishment will occur requires extensive experience or a mathematical model of disease dynamics and estimates of the parameters of the disease model. The latter approach is explored here. Methods for estimating key model parameters, the transmission coefficient (beta) and the basic reproductive rate (RDRS), are described using classical swine fever (hog cholera) in wild pigs as an example. The tentative results indicate that an acute infection of classical swine fever will establish in a small population of wild pigs. Data required for estimation of disease transmission rates are reviewed and sources of bias and alternative methods discussed. A comprehensive evaluation of the biases and efficiencies of the methods is needed.

  11. Natural Characteristics of The Herringbone Gear Transmission System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jianxing; Sun, Wenlei; Cao, Li

    2018-03-01

    According to the structure characteristics of herringbone gear transmission, a more realistic dynamic model of the transmission system is built in consideration of the inner excitation, herringbone gears axial positioning and sliding bearing etc. The natural frequencies of the system are calculated, and the vibration mode is divided into symmetric vibration modes and asymmetric vibration modes. The time history of system dynamic force is obtained by solving the dynamic model. The effects of the connection stiffness of left and right sides of herringbone gears and axial support stiffness on natural characteristics are discussed.

  12. Modeling of spectral atmosphere transmission for infrared radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiecek, B.; Olbrycht, R.

    2009-01-01

    IR radiation transmission of the atmosphere is an important factor during the thermovision remote sensing and measurement. Transmission coefficient of the atmosphere depends on its content and it is attenuated mainly due to the vapor concentration. Every calibrated thermal camera should be equipped with the digital system which implements the transmission model of the atmosphere. The model presented in this work is based on Beer and Bouguer laws. The proposed simplified model of transmission atmosphere is suitable for implementation in the thermal cameras. A simple digital controller of the camera can calculate the transmission coefficient and correct the temperature measurement. The model takes in account both scattering and absorption due the quantum effects when the photons are interacting with the molecules. (author)

  13. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  14. Aggregated Wind Park Models for Analysing Power System Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poeller, Markus; Achilles, Sebastian [DIgSILENT GmbH, Gomaringen (Germany)

    2003-11-01

    The increasing amount of wind power generation in European power systems requires stability analysis considering interaction between wind-farms and transmission systems. Dynamics introduced by dispersed wind generators at the distribution level can usually be neglected. However, large on- and offshore wind farms have a considerable influence to power system dynamics and must definitely be considered for analyzing power system dynamics. Compared to conventional power stations, wind power plants consist of a large number of generators of small size. Therefore, representing every wind generator individually increases the calculation time of dynamic simulations considerably. Therefore, model aggregation techniques should be applied for reducing calculation times. This paper presents aggregated models for wind parks consisting of fixed or variable speed wind generators.

  15. epidemix—An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Muellner

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a “black box” to those without the appropriate mathematical background. This may lead to a negative perception of their utility for guiding policy, and generate expectations, which are not in line with what these models can deliver. It is therefore important for policymakers, as well as public health and animal health professionals and researchers who collaborate with modelers and use results generated by these models for policy development or research purpose, to understand the key concepts and assumptions underlying these models.The software application epidemix (http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk presented here aims to make mathematical models of disease transmission accessible to a wider audience of users. By developing a visual interface for a suite of eight models, users can develop an understanding of the impact of various modelling assumptions – especially mixing patterns – on the trajectory of an epidemic and the impact of control interventions, without having to directly deal with the complexity of mathematical equations and programming languages. Models are compartmental or individual-based, deterministic or stochastic, and assume homogeneous or heterogeneous-mixing patterns (with the probability of transmission depending on the underlying structure of contact networks, or the spatial distribution of hosts. This application is intended to be used by scientists teaching mathematical modelling short courses to non

  16. The evolution of wealth transmission in human populations: a stochastic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustins, G; Etienne, L; Ferrer, R; Godelle, B; Rousset, F; Ferdy, J-B; Pitard, E

    2014-01-01

    Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of wealth in a population and the evolution of a trait that determines how wealth is transmitted from parents to offspring, in a darwinian context

  17. Dynamical Behavior of a Rumor Transmission Model with Psychological Effect in Emergency Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang'an Huo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A rumor transmission model with nonmonotonic incidence rate was proposed, which provides excellent explanations of the “psychological” effect with rumor spreading in emergency event. By carrying out a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium, we showed that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero as time evolves or the rumor persists. Finally, recommendations for policy makers and consulting advice for related commissions are explored in the case study of crazy rumors propagated for the iodized sail shortage panic in China.

  18. Dynamic quality of service model for improving performance of multimedia real-time transmission in industrial networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalakrishnan, Ravichandran C; Karunakaran, Manivannan

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, quality of service (QoS) is very popular in various research areas like distributed systems, multimedia real-time applications and networking. The requirements of these systems are to satisfy reliability, uptime, security constraints and throughput as well as application specific requirements. The real-time multimedia applications are commonly distributed over the network and meet various time constraints across networks without creating any intervention over control flows. In particular, video compressors make variable bit-rate streams that mismatch the constant-bit-rate channels typically provided by classical real-time protocols, severely reducing the efficiency of network utilization. Thus, it is necessary to enlarge the communication bandwidth to transfer the compressed multimedia streams using Flexible Time Triggered- Enhanced Switched Ethernet (FTT-ESE) protocol. FTT-ESE provides automation to calculate the compression level and change the bandwidth of the stream. This paper focuses on low-latency multimedia transmission over Ethernet with dynamic quality-of-service (QoS) management. This proposed framework deals with a dynamic QoS for multimedia transmission over Ethernet with FTT-ESE protocol. This paper also presents distinct QoS metrics based both on the image quality and network features. Some experiments with recorded and live video streams show the advantages of the proposed framework. To validate the solution we have designed and implemented a simulator based on the Matlab/Simulink, which is a tool to evaluate different network architecture using Simulink blocks.

  19. Dynamical behavior of a rumor transmission model with Holling-type II functional response in emergency event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Liang'an; Jiang, Jiehui; Gong, Sixing; He, Bing

    2016-05-01

    Rumor transmission has become an important issue in emergency event. In this paper, a rumor transmission model with Holling-type II functional response was proposed, which provides excellent explanations of the scientific knowledge effect with rumor spreading. By a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium, we found that the number of infective individuals equal to zero or positive integer as time went on. A numerical simulation is carried out to illustrate the feasibility of our main results. The results will provide the theoretical support to rumor control in emergency event and also provide decision makers references for the public opinions management.

  20. Dynamic Transmission Modeling : A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force Working Group-5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pitman, Richard; Fisman, David; Zaric, Gregory S.; Postma, Maarten; Kretzschmar, Mirjam; Edmunds, John; Brisson, Marc

    2012-01-01

    The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the

  1. Mean-field modeling approach for understanding epidemic dynamics in interconnected networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Fu, Xinchu; Tang, Qinggan; Li, Kezan

    2015-01-01

    Modern systems (e.g., social, communicant, biological networks) are increasingly interconnected each other formed as ‘networks of networks’. Such complex systems usually possess inconsistent topologies and permit agents distributed in different subnetworks to interact directly/indirectly. Corresponding dynamics phenomena, such as the transmission of information, power, computer virus and disease, would exhibit complicated and heterogeneous tempo-spatial patterns. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading in interconnected networks. We intend to provide a typical mean-field modeling framework to describe the time-evolution dynamics, and offer some mathematical skills to study the spreading threshold and the global stability of the model. Integrating the research with numerical analysis, we are able to quantify the effects of networks structure and epidemiology parameters on the transmission dynamics. Interestingly, we find that the diffusion transition in the whole network is governed by a unique threshold, which mainly depends on the most heterogenous connection patterns of network substructures. Further, the dynamics is highly sensitive to the critical values of cross infectivity with switchable phases.

  2. Transmission-lattice based geometric phase analysis for evaluating the dynamic deformation of a liquid surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Wenxiong; Huang, Xianfu; Liu, Zhanwei

    2014-05-05

    Quantitatively measuring a dynamic liquid surface often presents a challenge due to high transparency, fluidity and specular reflection. Here, a novel Transmission-Lattice based Geometric Phase Analysis (TLGPA) method is introduced. In this method, a special lattice is placed underneath a liquid to be tested and, when viewed from above, the phase of the transmission-lattice image is modulated by the deformation of the liquid surface. Combining this with multi-directional Newton iteration algorithms, the dynamic deformation field of the liquid surface can be calculated from the phase variation of a series of transmission-lattice images captured at different moments. The developed method has the advantage of strong self-adaption ability to initial lattice rotational errors and this is discussed in detail. Dynamic 3D ripples formation and propagation was investigated and the results obtained demonstrated the feasibility of the method.

  3. Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Shi-Fu; Li, Shen-Long; Huang, Liu-Yu; Zhang, Wen-Yi; Sun, Gui-Quan; Gai, Zhong-Tao; Jin, Zhen

    2015-09-08

    Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.

  4. The primary case is not enough: Variation among individuals, groups and social networks modify bacterial transmission dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiser, Carl N; Pinter-Wollman, Noa; Ziemba, Michael J; Kothamasu, Krishna S; Pruitt, Jonathan N

    2018-03-01

    The traits of the primary case of an infectious disease outbreak, and the circumstances for their aetiology, potentially influence the trajectory of transmission dynamics. However, these dynamics likely also depend on the traits of the individuals with whom the primary case interacts. We used the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola to test how the traits of the primary case, group phenotypic composition and group size interact to facilitate the transmission of a GFP-labelled cuticular bacterium. We also compared bacterial transmission across experimentally generated "daisy-chain" vs. "star" networks of social interactions. Finally, we compared social network structure across groups of different sizes. Groups of 10 spiders experienced more bacterial transmission events compared to groups of 30 spiders, regardless of groups' behavioural composition. Groups containing only one bold spider experienced the lowest levels of bacterial transmission regardless of group size. We found no evidence for the traits of the primary case influencing any transmission dynamics. In a second experiment, bacteria were transmitted to more individuals in experimentally induced star networks than in daisy-chains, on which transmission never exceeded three steps. In both experimental network types, transmission success depended jointly on the behavioural traits of the interacting individuals; however, the behavioural traits of the primary case were only important for transmission on star networks. Larger social groups exhibited lower interaction density (i.e. had a low ratio of observed to possible connections) and were more modular, i.e. they had more connections between nodes within a subgroup and fewer connections across subgroups. Thus, larger groups may restrict transmission by forming fewer interactions and by isolating subgroups that interacted with the primary case. These findings suggest that accounting for the traits of single exposed hosts has less power in predicting transmission

  5. Analysis of dynamic meshing characteristic of planetary gear transmission in wind power increasing gearbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Jungang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic behavior of planetary gear’s tooth contact surface in the different location can better conform operation condition comparing to the general gear pair. Nonlinear finite element algorithm was derived according to the basic control equation of contact dynamics. A finite element model of planetary gear transmission in wind power increasing gearbox was proposed considering different meshing locations based on nonlinear finite element solution. The characteristics of stress distribution at different meshing positions were analyzed. A simulation of the meshing process was conducted using finite element analysis. It was shown that node stresses of external meshing planetary gear varied significantly at different position. The analysis provides some useful insights into the performance of planetary gear’s tooth contact surface.

  6. Comparative dynamics, seasonality in transmission, and predictability of childhood infections in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.; Grenfell, B. T.

    2018-01-01

    The seasonality and periodicity of infections, and the mechanisms underlying observed dynamics, can have implications for control efforts. This is particularly true for acute childhood infections. Among these, the dynamics of measles is the best understood and has been extensively studied, most notably in the UK prior to the start of vaccination. Less is known about the dynamics of other childhood diseases, particularly outside Europe and the US. In this paper, we leverage a unique dataset to examine the epidemiology of six childhood infections - measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, scarlet fever and pertussis - across 32 states in Mexico from 1985 to 2007. This dataset provides us with a spatiotemporal probe into the dynamics of six common childhood infections, and allows us to compare them in the same setting over the same time period. We examine three key epidemiological characteristics of these infections – the age profile of infections, spatiotemporal dynamics, and seasonality in transmission - and compare with predictions from existing theory and past findings. Our analysis reveals interesting epidemiological differences between the six pathogens, and variations across space. We find signatures of term time forcing (reduced transmission during the summer) for measles, mumps, rubella, varicella, and scarlet fever; for pertussis, a lack of term time forcing could not be rejected. PMID:27873563

  7. TRANSMISSION SPECTRA OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL HOT JUPITER MODEL ATMOSPHERES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortney, J. J.; Shabram, M.; Showman, A. P.; Lian, Y.; Lewis, N. K.; Freedman, R. S.; Marley, M. S.

    2010-01-01

    We compute models of the transmission spectra of planets HD 209458b, HD 189733b, and generic hot Jupiters. We examine the effects of temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity for the generic planets as a guide to understanding transmission spectra in general. We find that carbon dioxide absorption at 4.4 and 15 μm is prominent at high metallicity, and is a clear metallicity indicator. For HD 209458b and HD 189733b, we compute spectra for both one-dimensional and three-dimensional model atmospheres and examine the differences between them. The differences are usually small, but can be large if atmospheric temperatures are near important chemical abundance boundaries. The calculations for the three-dimensional atmospheres, and their comparison with data, serve as constraints on these dynamical models that complement the secondary eclipse and light curve data sets. For HD 209458b, even if TiO and VO gases are abundant on the dayside, their abundances can be considerably reduced on the cooler planetary limb. However, given the predicted limb temperatures and TiO abundances, the model's optical opacity is too high. For HD 189733b we find a good match with some infrared data sets and constrain the altitude of a postulated haze layer. For this planet, substantial differences can exist between the transmission spectra of the leading and trailing hemispheres, which are an excellent probe of carbon chemistry. In thermochemical equilibrium, the cooler leading hemisphere is methane-dominated, and the hotter trailing hemisphere is CO-dominated, but these differences may be eliminated by non-equilibrium chemistry due to vertical mixing. It may be possible to constrain the carbon chemistry of this planet, and its spatial variation, with James Webb Space Telescope.

  8. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  9. Dynamics of synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general incidence rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Mingju; Liu, Sanyang; Xiang, Hong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    Synthetic drugs are replacing traditional ones and becoming the main popular ones gradually, which have given rise to serious social issues in recent years. In this paper, a synthetic drugs transmission model with psychological addicts and general contact rate is proposed. The local and global stabilities are decided by the basic reproduction number R0. By analyzing the sensitivity of parameters, we obtain that controlling psychological addiction is better than drugs treatment. These results are verified by numerical simulations.

  10. Dynamic modeling of fluid power transmissions for wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diepeveen, N.F.B.; Jarquin Laguna, A.

    2011-01-01

    Fluid power transmission for wind turbines is quietly gaining more ground/interest. The principle of the various concepts presented so far is to convert aerodynamic torque of the rotor blades into a pressurized fluid flow by means of a positive displacement pump. At the other end of the fluid power

  11. Percolation Model of Sensory Transmission and Loss of Consciousness Under General Anesthesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, David W.; Mowrey, David D.; Tang, Pei; Xu, Yan

    2015-09-01

    Neurons communicate with each other dynamically; how such communications lead to consciousness remains unclear. Here, we present a theoretical model to understand the dynamic nature of sensory activity and information integration in a hierarchical network, in which edges are stochastically defined by a single parameter p representing the percolation probability of information transmission. We validate the model by comparing the transmitted and original signal distributions, and we show that a basic version of this model can reproduce key spectral features clinically observed in electroencephalographic recordings of transitions from conscious to unconscious brain activities during general anesthesia. As p decreases, a steep divergence of the transmitted signal from the original was observed, along with a loss of signal synchrony and a sharp increase in information entropy in a critical manner; this resembles the precipitous loss of consciousness during anesthesia. The model offers mechanistic insights into the emergence of information integration from a stochastic process, laying the foundation for understanding the origin of cognition.

  12. Analyzing transmission dynamics of cholera with public health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posny, Drew; Wang, Jin; Mukandavire, Zindoga; Modnak, Chairat

    2015-06-01

    Cholera continues to be a serious public health concern in developing countries and the global increase in the number of reported outbreaks suggests that activities to control the diseases and surveillance programs to identify or predict the occurrence of the next outbreaks are not adequate. These outbreaks have increased in frequency, severity, duration and endemicity in recent years. Mathematical models for infectious diseases play a critical role in predicting and understanding disease mechanisms, and have long provided basic insights in the possible ways to control infectious diseases. In this paper, we present a new deterministic cholera epidemiological model with three types of control measures incorporated into a cholera epidemic setting: treatment, vaccination and sanitation. Essential dynamical properties of the model with constant intervention controls which include local and global stabilities for the equilibria are carefully analyzed. Further, using optimal control techniques, we perform a study to investigate cost-effective solutions for time-dependent public health interventions in order to curb disease transmission in epidemic settings. Our results show that the basic reproductive number (R0) remains the model's epidemic threshold despite the inclusion of a package of cholera interventions. For time-dependent controls, the results suggest that these interventions closely interplay with each other, and the costs of controls directly affect the length and strength of each control in an optimal strategy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A multiscale model on hospital infections coupling macro and micro dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xia; Tang, Sanyi

    2017-09-01

    A multiscale model of hospital infections coupling the micro model of the growth of bacteria and the macro model describing the transmission of the bacteria among patients and health care workers (HCWs) was established to investigate the effects of antibiotic treatment on the transmission of the bacteria among patients and HCWs. The model was formulated by viewing the transmission rate from infected patients to HCWs and the shedding rate of bacteria from infected patients to the environment as saturated functions of the within-host bacterial load. The equilibria and the basic reproduction number of the coupled system were studied, and the global dynamics of the disease free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were analyzed in detail by constructing two Lyapunov functions. Furthermore, effects of drug treatment in the within-host model on the basic reproduction number and the dynamics of the coupled model were studied by coupling a pharmacokinetics model with the within-host model. Sensitive analysis indicated that the growth rate of the bacteria, the maximum drug effect and the dosing interval are the three most sensitive parameters contributing to the basic reproduction number. Thus, adopting ;wonder; drugs to decrease the growth rate of the bacteria or to increase the drug's effect is the most effective measure but changing the dosage regime is also effective. A quantitative criterion of how to choose the best dosage regimen can also be obtained from numerical results.

  14. Assessing the impact of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.P. Bhunu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Care for the people living with HIV/AIDS is more than the provision of antiretroviral therapy. The effects of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission are captured through a mathematical model. The mathematical model is rigorously analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Results from the analysis of the reproduction number suggests that homelessness enhances both HIV transmission and progression to the AIDS stage. This is further supported by numerical simulations which show that some elements of homelessness (lack of entertainment enhances HIV/AIDS transmission.

  15. An epidemiological model of virus transmission in salmonid fishes of the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Paige F. B.; Breyta, Rachel; Brito, Ilana L.; Kurath, Gael; LaDeau, Shannon L.

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a dynamic epidemiological model informed by records of viral presence and genotypes to evaluate potential transmission routes maintaining a viral pathogen in economically and culturally important anadromous fish populations. In the Columbia River Basin, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) causes severe disease, predominantly in juvenile steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and less frequently in Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Mortality events following IHNV infection can be devastating for individual hatchery programs. Despite reports of high local mortality and extensive surveillance efforts, there are questions about how viral transmission is maintained. Modeling this system offers important insights into disease transmission in natural aquatic systems, as well as about the data requirements for generating accurate estimates about transmission routes and infection probabilities. We simulated six scenarios in which testing rates and the relative importance of different transmission routes varied. The simulations demonstrated that the model accurately identified routes of transmission and inferred infection probabilities accurately when there was testing of all cohort-sites. When testing records were incomplete, the model accurately inferred which transmission routes exposed particular cohort-sites but generated biased infection probabilities given exposure. After validating the model and generating guidelines for result interpretation, we applied the model to data from 14 annual cohorts (2000–2013) at 24 focal sites in a sub-region of the Columbia River Basin, the lower Columbia River (LCR), to quantify the relative importance of potential transmission routes in this focal sub-region. We demonstrate that exposure to IHNV via the return migration of adult fish is an important route for maintaining IHNV in the LCR sub-region, and the probability of infection following this exposure was relatively high at 0.16. Although only 1% of

  16. Impedance Synthesis Based Vibration Analysis of Geared Transmission System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yafeng Ren

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The severity of gear noise response depends on the sensitivity of geared rotor system dynamics to the transmission error. As gearbox design trending towards lighter weight and lower noise, the influence of housing compliance on system dynamic characteristics cannot be ignored. In this study, a gear-shaft-bearing-housing coupled impedance model is proposed to account for the effect of housing compliance on the vibration of geared transmission system. This proposed dynamic model offers convenient modeling, efficient computing, and ability to combine computed parameters with experimental ones. The numerical simulations on system dynamic characteristics are performed for both a rigid housing configuration and a flexible one. Natural frequencies, dynamic mesh forces, and dynamic bearing reaction loads are computed, and the housing compliance contribution on system dynamic characteristics is analyzed. Results show that increasing housing compliance will decrease the system natural frequencies and will affect the dynamic bearing reaction loads significantly but have very little influence on the dynamic mesh force. Also, the analysis shows that bearing stiffness has significant influence on the degree of housing contribution on system dynamic characteristics.

  17. Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkle, Jerod A.; Cross, Paul C.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Cole, Eric K.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2018-01-01

    Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission.Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [Cervus Canadensis] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts.Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands.Synthesis and applications. Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate

  18. Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: A Theoretical Model on the Role of Capital Investment Expenditures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raabe, K.; Arnold, I.; Kool, C.J.M.

    This paper presents a dynamic investment model that explains differences in the sensitivity of small- and large-sized firms to changes in the money market interest rate. In contrast to existing studies on the firm size effects of monetary policy, the importance of firms as monetary transmission

  19. Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng

    2018-01-01

    Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.

  20. Molecular dynamics of TBP and DBP studied by neutron transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salles Filho, J.B.V.; Refinetti, M.E.; Fulfaro, R.; Vinhas, L.A.

    1984-04-01

    Differences between the properties of TBP and DBP, concerning the uranium extraction processes, may be related to certain characteristics of the molecular dynamics of each compound. In order to investigate the dynamical behaviour of hydrogen in these molecules, neutron transmission of TBP and DBP has been measured as a function of neutron wavelenght in the range 4.0 - 6.0 A, at room temperature. Scattering cross sections per hydrogen atom have been obtained. From the comparison with results previously obtained for n-butanol, similar dynamical behaviour of butyl radicals in these compounds could be observed. This similarity indicates that the presence of two or three butyl radicals in butylphosphate molecules does not exert influence in the hydrogen motion of methyl and methylene groups. This suggests that the different chemical behaviour between TBP and DBP is related to the dynamics of the hydrogen directly bound to the DBP phosphate group.(Author) [pt

  1. Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianping Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction number R0 which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. If R0 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

  2. Studies on the population dynamics of a rumor-spreading model in online social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Fan, Feng-Hua; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2018-02-01

    This paper sets up a rumor spreading model in online social networks based on the European fox rabies SIR model. The model considers the impact of changing number of online social network users, combines the transmission dynamics to set up a population dynamics of rumor spreading model in online social networks. Simulation is carried out on online social network, and results show that the new rumor spreading model is in accordance with the real propagation characteristics in online social networks.

  3. A method of Modelling and Simulating the Back-to-Back Modular Multilevel Converter HVDC Transmission System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Fan, Youping; Zhang, Dai; Ge, Mengxin; Zou, Xianbin; Li, Jingjiao

    2017-09-01

    This paper proposes a method to simulate a back-to-back modular multilevel converter (MMC) HVDC transmission system. In this paper we utilize an equivalent networks to simulate the dynamic power system. Moreover, to account for the performance of converter station, core components of model of the converter station gives a basic model of simulation. The proposed method is applied to an equivalent real power system.

  4. Assessing the impact of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    C.P. Bhunu

    2015-01-01

    Care for the people living with HIV/AIDS is more than the provision of antiretroviral therapy. The effects of homelessness on HIV/AIDS transmission are captured through a mathematical model. The mathematical model is rigorously analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number is less than unity. Results from the analysis of the reproduction number suggests that homelessness enhances both HIV transmission and progression to the AIDS stage. T...

  5. Long-term effects of penicillin resistance and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Tilevik

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increasing prevalence of penicillin non-susceptible pneumococci (PNSP throughout the world threatens successful treatment of infections caused by this important bacterial pathogen. The rate at which PNSP clones spread in the community is thought to mainly be determined by two key determinants; the volume of penicillin use and the magnitude of the fitness cost in the absence of treatment. The aim of the study was to determine the impacts of penicillin consumption and fitness cost on pneumococcal transmission dynamics in a developed country setting. Methods: An individual-based network model based on real-life demographic data was constructed and applied in a developed country setting (Sweden. A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups, i.e. families, day care groups, school classes, and other close contacts, was considered to properly assess the transmission dynamics for susceptible and PNSP clones. Several scenarios were simulated and model outcomes were statistically analysed. Results: Model simulations predicted that with an outpatient penicillin use corresponding to the sales in Sweden 2010 (118 recipes per 1,000 inhabitants per year, the magnitude of a fitness cost for resistance must be at least 5% to offset the advantage of penicillin resistance. Moreover, even if there is a fitness cost associated with penicillin resistance, a considerable reduction of penicillin usage appears to be required to significantly decrease the incidence of PNSP in a community. Conclusion: The frequency of PNSP clones is hard to reverse by simply reducing the penicillin consumption even if there is a biological cost associated with resistance. However, because penicillin usage does promote further spread of PNSP clones, it is important to keep down penicillin consumption considering future resistance problems.

  6. Transmission grid security

    CERN Document Server

    Haarla, Liisa; Hirvonen, Ritva; Labeau, Pierre-Etienne

    2011-01-01

    In response to the growing importance of power system security and reliability, ""Transmission Grid Security"" proposes a systematic and probabilistic approach for transmission grid security analysis. The analysis presented uses probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) and takes into account the power system dynamics after severe faults. In the method shown in this book the power system states (stable, not stable, system breakdown, etc.) are connected with the substation reliability model. In this way it is possible to: estimate the system-wide consequences of grid faults; identify a chain of eve

  7. Dynamic sex roles among men who have sex with men and transmissions from primary HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Shah Jamal; Romero-Severson, Ethan; Kim, Jong-Hoon; Emond, Gilbert; Koopman, James S

    2010-09-01

    Previous studies estimating the fraction of transmissions from persons with primary HIV have not focused on the effects of switching sex role in male homosexual populations. Such behavioral fluctuations can increase the contribution of primary HIV in the overall population. We modeled HIV transmission with 8 compartments defined by 4 behavioral groups, with different anal-insertive and anal-receptive combinations, and 2 stages of infection. We explored the effects of fluctuating behavioral categories on endemic prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. We varied transition rates to develop the theory on how behavioral fluctuation affects infection patterns, and we used the transition rates in a Netherlands cohort to assess overall effects in a real setting. The dynamics of change in behavior-group status over time observed in the Netherlands cohort amplifies the prevalence of infection and the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, resulting in the highest proportions of transmissions being from people with primary HIV. Fluctuation between dual- or receptive-role periods and no-anal-sex periods mainly determines this amplification. In terms of the total transmissions, the dual-role risk group is dominant. Fluctuation between insertive and receptive roles decreases the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV, but such fluctuation is infrequently observed. The fraction of transmissions from primary HIV is considerably raised by fluctuations in insertive and receptive anal sex behaviors. This increase occurs even when primary HIV or later infection status does not influence risk behavior. Thus, it is not simply biology but also behavior patterns and social contexts that determine the fraction of transmissions from primary HIV. Moreover, each primary HIV transmission has a larger population effect than each later infection transmission because the men to whom one transmits from primary HIV carry on more chains of transmissions than the men

  8. Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilcke, Joke; Chapman, Ruth; Atchison, Christina; Cromer, Deborah; Johnson, Helen; Willem, Lander; Cox, Martin; Edmunds, William John; Jit, Mark

    2015-07-01

    Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Lumped parametric model of the human ear for sound transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Bin; Gan, Rong Z

    2004-09-01

    A lumped parametric model of the human auditoria peripherals consisting of six masses suspended with six springs and ten dashpots was proposed. This model will provide the quantitative basis for the construction of a physical model of the human middle ear. The lumped model parameters were first identified using published anatomical data, and then determined through a parameter optimization process. The transfer function of the middle ear obtained from human temporal bone experiments with laser Doppler interferometers was used for creating the target function during the optimization process. It was found that, among 14 spring and dashpot parameters, there were five parameters which had pronounced effects on the dynamic behaviors of the model. The detailed discussion on the sensitivity of those parameters was provided with appropriate applications for sound transmission in the ear. We expect that the methods for characterizing the lumped model of the human ear and the model parameters will be useful for theoretical modeling of the ear function and construction of the ear physical model.

  10. A Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in dynamical models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Codeço Coelho

    Full Text Available Mathematical models in biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system. Proper handling of such uncertainties is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration and parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation that is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to fit an SIR-like influenza transmission model to 7 years of incidence data in three European countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.

  11. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  12. Transmission Dynamics of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Pigs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crombé, Florence; Argudín, M. Angeles; Vanderhaeghen, Wannes; Hermans, Katleen; Haesebrouck, Freddy; Butaye, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    From the mid-2000s on, numerous studies have shown that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), renowned as human pathogen, has a reservoir in pigs and other livestock. In Europe and North America, clonal complex (CC) 398 appears to be the predominant lineage involved. Especially worrisome is its capacity to contaminate humans in close contact with affected animals. Indeed, the typical multi-resistant phenotype of MRSA CC398 and its observed ability of easily acquiring genetic material suggests that MRSA CC398 strains with an increased virulence potential may emerge, for which few therapeutic options would remain. This questions the need to implement interventions to control the presence and spread of MRSA CC398 among pigs. MRSA CC398 shows a high but not fully understood transmission potential in the pig population and is able to persist within that population. Although direct contact is probably the main route for MRSA transmission between pigs, also environmental contamination, the presence of other livestock, the herd size, and farm management are factors that may be involved in the dissemination of MRSA CC398. The current review aims at summarizing the research that has so far been done on the transmission dynamics and risk factors for introduction and persistence of MRSA CC398 in farms. PMID:23518663

  13. Dynamic analysis of a hepatitis B model with three-age-classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Suxia; Zhou, Yicang

    2014-07-01

    Based on the fact that the likelihood of becoming chronically infected is dependent on age at primary infection Kane (1995) [2], Edmunds et al. (1993) [3], Medley et al. (2001) [4], and Ganem and Prince (2004) [6], we formulate a hepatitis B transmission model with three age classes. The reproduction number, R0 is defined and the dynamical behavior of the model is analyzed. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R01. The unique endemic equilibrium and its global stability is obtained in a special case. Simulations are also conducted to compare the dynamical behavior of the model with and without age classes.

  14. Effectiveness of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in three archetypical transmission settings: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardin, Jaline; Bever, Caitlin A; Bridenbecker, Daniel; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Miller, John M; Eisele, Thomas P; Eckhoff, Philip A; Wenger, Edward A

    2017-06-12

    Reactive case detection could be a powerful tool in malaria elimination, as it selectively targets transmission pockets. However, field operations have yet to demonstrate under which conditions, if any, reactive case detection is best poised to push a region to elimination. This study uses mathematical modelling to assess how baseline transmission intensity and local interconnectedness affect the impact of reactive activities in the context of other possible intervention packages. Communities in Southern Province, Zambia, where elimination operations are currently underway, were used as representatives of three archetypes of malaria transmission: low-transmission, high household density; high-transmission, low household density; and high-transmission, high household density. Transmission at the spatially-connected household level was simulated with a dynamical model of malaria transmission, and local variation in vectorial capacity and intervention coverage were parameterized according to data collected from the area. Various potential intervention packages were imposed on each of the archetypical settings and the resulting likelihoods of elimination by the end of 2020 were compared. Simulations predict that success of elimination campaigns in both low- and high-transmission areas is strongly dependent on stemming the flow of imported infections, underscoring the need for regional-scale strategies capable of reducing transmission concurrently across many connected areas. In historically low-transmission areas, treatment of clinical malaria should form the cornerstone of elimination operations, as most malaria infections in these areas are symptomatic and onward transmission would be mitigated through health system strengthening; reactive case detection has minimal impact in these settings. In historically high-transmission areas, vector control and case management are crucial for limiting outbreak size, and the asymptomatic reservoir must be addressed through

  15. Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan A Greischar

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.

  16. Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

    2015-03-11

    Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

  17. The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain: Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrancken, Bram; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Drummond, Alexei; Baele, Guy; Derdelinckx, Inge; Van Wijngaerden, Eric; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Van Laethem, Kristel; Lemey, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the ‘store and retrieve’ hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells

  18. Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Quattrochi, Dale; Crosson, William; Hayden, Mary; Ernst, Kacey

    2015-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US-Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

  19. Finite element analysis using NASTRAN applied to helicopter transmission vibration/noise reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howells, R. W.; Sciarra, J. J.

    1975-01-01

    A finite element NASTRAN model of the complete forward rotor transmission housing for the Boeing Vertol CH-47 helicopter was developed and applied to reduce transmission vibration/noise at its source. In addition to a description of the model, a technique for vibration/noise prediction and reduction is outlined. Also included are the dynamic response as predicted by NASTRAN, test data, the use of strain energy methods to optimize the housing for minimum vibration/noise, and determination of design modifications which will be manufactured and tested. The techniques presented are not restricted to helicopters but are applicable to any power transmission system. The transmission housing model developed can be used further to evaluate static and dynamic stresses, thermal distortions, deflections and load paths, fail-safety/vulnerability, and composite materials.

  20. Prediction of the dynamic response of complex transmission line systems for unsteady pressure measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonini, C; Persico, G; Rowe, A L

    2008-01-01

    Among the measurement and control systems of gas turbine engines, a recent new issue is the possibility of performing unsteady pressure measurements to detect flow anomalies in an engine or to evaluate loads on aerodynamic surfaces. A possible answer to this demand could be extending the use of well known and widely used transmission line systems, which have been applied so far to steady monitoring, to unsteady measurements thanks to proper dynamic modeling and compensation. Despite the huge number of models existing in the literature, a novel method has been developed, which is at the same time easy-to-handle, flexible and capable of reproducing the actual physics of the problem. Furthermore, the new model is able to deal with arbitrary complex networks of lines and cavities, and thus its applicability is not limited to series-connected systems. The main objectives of this paper are to show the derivation of the model, its validation against experimental tests and example of its applicability

  1. Dynamical patterns of calcium signaling in a functional model of neuron-astrocyte networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Postnov, D.E.; Koreshkov, R.N.; Brazhe, N.A.

    2009-01-01

    We propose a functional mathematical model for neuron-astrocyte networks. The model incorporates elements of the tripartite synapse and the spatial branching structure of coupled astrocytes. We consider glutamate-induced calcium signaling as a specific mode of excitability and transmission...... in astrocytic-neuronal networks. We reproduce local and global dynamical patterns observed experimentally....

  2. Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Chowell

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.

  3. High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hihath, Sahar; Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey; Benthem, Klaus van

    2016-01-01

    The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO_3 substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

  4. High-speed nanoscale characterization of dewetting via dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hihath, Sahar [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States); Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States); Santala, Melissa K.; Campbell, Geoffrey [Materials Science Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Ave., Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Benthem, Klaus van, E-mail: benthem@ucdavis.edu [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Ave., Davis, California 95616 (United States)

    2016-08-28

    The dewetting of thin films can occur in either the solid or the liquid state for which different mass transport mechanisms are expected to control morphological changes. Traditionally, dewetting dynamics have been examined on time scales between several seconds to hours, and length scales ranging between nanometers and millimeters. The determination of mass transport mechanisms on the nanoscale, however, requires nanoscale spatial resolution and much shorter time scales. This study reports the high-speed observation of dewetting phenomena for kinetically constrained Ni thin films on crystalline SrTiO{sub 3} substrates. Movie-mode Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscopy (DTEM) was used for high-speed image acquisition during thin film dewetting at different temperatures. DTEM imaging confirmed that the initial stages of film agglomeration include edge retraction, hole formation, and growth. Finite element modeling was used to simulate temperature distributions within the DTEM samples after laser irradiation with different energies. For pulsed laser irradiation at 18 μJ, experimentally observed hole growth suggests that Marangoni flow dominates hole formation in the liquid nickel film. After irradiation with 13.8 μJ, however, the observations suggest that dewetting was initiated by nucleation of voids followed by hole growth through solid-state surface diffusion.

  5. An Experimental Study on Dynamics of a Novel Dual-Belt Continuous Variable Transmission Based on a Newly Developed Test Rig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pak Kin Wong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel dual-belt Van Doorne’s continuous variable transmission (DBVCVT system, which is applicable to heavy-duty vehicles, has been previously proposed by the authors in order to improve the low torque capacity of traditional single-belt CVT. This DBVCVT is a novel design among continuously variable transmissions and is necessary to be prototyped for experimental study, and the analytical dynamic model for this DBVCVT also needs to be experimentally validated. So, this work originally fabricated a prototype of DBVCVT and integrates this prototype to a light-load hardware-in-the-loop test rig by replacing the engine and load equipment with the AC motor and magnetic powder dynamometer. Moreover, with the use of this newly developed test rig, this work implements the experimental study of this DBVCVT for the first time. The comparison of experimental and simulation results validates the previously proposed analytical model for DBVCVT, and some basic characteristics of the DBVCVT in terms of the reliability, speed ratio, and transmission efficiency are also experimentally studied. In all, this developed test rig with the analytical model lays the foundation for further study on this novel DBVCVT.

  6. [Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canals, M

    1996-02-01

    Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

  7. Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: An essential tool where the burden is greatest?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Ann M.; Herbeck, Joshua T.; Brown, Andrew Leigh; Kellam, Paul; de Oliveira, Tulio; Pillay, Deenan; Fraser, Christophe; Cohen, Myron S.

    2014-01-01

    Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population-level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics, and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics, and suggest potential solutions. PMID:24977473

  8. On the dynamic response of pressure transmission lines in the research of helium-charged free piston Stirling engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Eric L.; Dudenhoefer, James E.

    1989-01-01

    The signal distortion inherent to pressure transmission lines in free-piston Stirling engine research is discussed. Based on results from classical analysis, guidelines are formulated to describe the dynamic response properties of a volume-terminated transmission tube for applications involving the helium-charged free-piston Stirling engines. The underdamped flow regime is described, the primary resonance frequency is derived, and the pressure phase and amplitude distortion are discussed. The scope and limitation of the dynamic response analysis are considered.

  9. Wave transmission in nonlinear lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennig, D.; Tsironis, G.P.

    1999-01-01

    The interplay of nonlinearity with lattice discreteness leads to phenomena and propagation properties quite distinct from those appearing in continuous nonlinear systems. For a large variety of condensed matter and optics applications the continuous wave approximation is not appropriate. In the present review we discuss wave transmission properties in one dimensional nonlinear lattices. Our paradigmatic equations are discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equations and their study is done through a dynamical systems approach. We focus on stationary wave properties and utilize well known results from the theory of dynamical systems to investigate various aspects of wave transmission and wave localization. We analyze in detail the more general dynamical system corresponding to the equation that interpolates between the non-integrable discrete nonlinear Schroedinger equation and the integrable Albowitz-Ladik equation. We utilize this analysis in a nonlinear Kronig-Penney model and investigate transmission and band modification properties. We discuss the modifications that are effected through an electric field and the nonlinear Wannier-Stark localization effects that are induced. Several applications are described, such as polarons in one dimensional lattices, semiconductor superlattices and one dimensional nonlinear photonic band gap systems. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  10. Rapid solidification growth mode transitions in Al-Si alloys by dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehling, John D.; Coughlin, Daniel R.; Gibbs, John W.; Baldwin, J. Kevin; Mertens, James C.E.; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Clarke, Amy J.; McKeown, Joseph T.

    2017-01-01

    In situ dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM) imaging of Al-Si thin-film alloys was performed to investigate rapid solidification behavior. Solidification of alloys with compositions from 1 to 15 atomic percent Si was imaged during pulsed laser melting and subsequent solidification. Solely α-Al solidification was observed in Al-1Si and Al-3Si alloys, and solely kinetically modified eutectic growth was observed in Al-6Si and Al-9Si alloys. A transition in the solidification mode in eutectic and hypereutectic alloys (Al-12Si and Al-15Si) from nucleated α-Al dendrites at lower solidification velocities to planar eutectic growth at higher solidification velocities was observed, departing from trends previously seen in laser-track melting experiments. Comparisons of the growth modes and corresponding velocities are compared with previous solidification models, and implications regarding the models are discussed.

  11. Modeling of Viral Aerosol Transmission and Detection

    KAUST Repository

    Khalid, Maryam; Amin, Osama; Ahmed, Sajid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this work is to investigate the spread mechanism of diseases in the atmosphere as an engineering problem. Among the viral transmission mechanisms that do not include physical contact, aerosol transmission is the most significant mode of transmission where virus-laden droplets are carried over long distances by wind. In this work, we focus on aerosol transmission of virus and introduce the idea of viewing virus transmission through aerosols and their transport as a molecular communication problem, where one has no control over transmission source but a robust receiver can be designed using nano-biosensors. To investigate this idea, a complete system is presented and end-toend mathematical model for the aerosol transmission channel is derived under certain constraints and boundary conditions. In addition to transmitter and channel, a receiver architecture composed of air sampler and Silicon Nanowire field effect transistor is also discussed. Furthermore, a detection problem is formulated for which maximum likelihood decision rule and the corresponding missed detection probability is discussed. At the end, simulation results are presented to investigate the parameters that affect the performance and justify the feasibility of proposed setup in related applications.

  12. Nanosecond time-resolved investigations using the in situ of dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaGrange, Thomas; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Reed, B.W.; Taheri, Mitra; Pesavento, J. Bradley; Kim, Judy S.; Browning, Nigel D.

    2008-01-01

    Most biological processes, chemical reactions and materials dynamics occur at rates much faster than can be captured with standard video rate acquisition methods in transmission electron microscopes (TEM). Thus, there is a need to increase the temporal resolution in order to capture and understand salient features of these rapid materials processes. This paper details the development of a high-time resolution dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM) that captures dynamics in materials with nanosecond time resolution. The current DTEM performance, having a spatial resolution <10 nm for single-shot imaging using 15 ns electron pulses, will be discussed in the context of experimental investigations in solid state reactions of NiAl reactive multilayer films, the study of martensitic transformations in nanocrystalline Ti and the catalytic growth of Si nanowires. In addition, this paper will address the technical issues involved with high current, electron pulse operation and the near-term improvements to the electron optics, which will greatly improve the signal and spatial resolutions, and to the laser system, which will allow tailored specimen and photocathode drive conditions

  13. Nanosecond time-resolved investigations using the in situ of dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaGrange, Thomas [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)], E-mail: lagrange@llnl.gov; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Reed, B.W.; Taheri, Mitra; Pesavento, J. Bradley [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Kim, Judy S.; Browning, Nigel D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

    2008-10-15

    Most biological processes, chemical reactions and materials dynamics occur at rates much faster than can be captured with standard video rate acquisition methods in transmission electron microscopes (TEM). Thus, there is a need to increase the temporal resolution in order to capture and understand salient features of these rapid materials processes. This paper details the development of a high-time resolution dynamic transmission electron microscope (DTEM) that captures dynamics in materials with nanosecond time resolution. The current DTEM performance, having a spatial resolution <10 nm for single-shot imaging using 15 ns electron pulses, will be discussed in the context of experimental investigations in solid state reactions of NiAl reactive multilayer films, the study of martensitic transformations in nanocrystalline Ti and the catalytic growth of Si nanowires. In addition, this paper will address the technical issues involved with high current, electron pulse operation and the near-term improvements to the electron optics, which will greatly improve the signal and spatial resolutions, and to the laser system, which will allow tailored specimen and photocathode drive conditions.

  14. Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aditya S Khanna

    Full Text Available Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A, triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B, or lifelong ART (Option B+. The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1 current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2 current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3 high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART at current coverage.At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.

  15. Transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in dynamical small-world networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Konno, Norio; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2004-03-01

    The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical features of the epidemics should be clarified for establishing strategies for tracing, quarantine, isolation, and regulating social behavior of the public at appropriate costs. Here we propose a network model for SARS epidemics and discuss why superspreaders emerged and why SARS spread especially in hospitals, which were key factors of the recent outbreak. We suggest that superspreaders are biologically contagious patients, and they may amplify the spreads by going to potentially contagious places such as hospitals. To avoid mass transmission in hospitals, it may be a good measure to treat suspected cases without hospitalizing them. Finally, we indicate that SARS probably propagates in small-world networks associated with human contacts and that the biological nature of individuals and social group properties are factors more important than the heterogeneous rates of social contacts among individuals. This is in marked contrast with epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases or computer viruses to which scale-free network models often apply.

  16. Mathematical model of Zika virus with vertical transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.B. Agusto

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Zika is a flavivirus transmitted to humans through either the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes or sexual transmission. Zika has been linked to congenital anomalies such as microcephaly. In this paper, we analyze a new system of ordinary differential equations which incorporates human vertical transmission of Zika virus, the birth of babies with microcephaly and asymptomatically infected individuals. The Zika model is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. Our model shows that asymptomatic individuals amplify the disease burden in the community, and the most important parameters for ZIKV spread are the death rate of mosquitoes, the mosquito biting rate, the mosquito recruitment rate, and the transmission per contact to mosquitoes and to adult humans. Scenario exploration indicates that personal-protection is a more effective control strategy than mosquito-reduction strategy. It also shows that delaying conception reduces the number of microcephaly cases, although this does little to prevent Zika transmission in the broader community. However, by coupling aggressive vector control and personal protection use, it is possible to reduce both microcephaly and Zika transmission. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 92B05, 93A30, 93C15. Keywords: Zika virus, Vertical transmission, Microcephaly, Stability, Control

  17. Intergenerational Transmission in a Bidirectional Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan De Mol

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional approaches to the study of parent-child relationships view intergenerational transmission as a top-down phenomenon in which parents transfer their values, beliefs, and practices to their children. Furthermore, the focus of these unidirectional approaches regarding children's internalisation processes is on continuity or the transmission of similar values, beliefs, and practices from parents to children. Analogous unidirectional perspectives have also influenced the domain of family therapy. In this paper a cognitive-bidirectional and dialectical model of dynamics in parent-child relationships is discussed in which the focus is on continual creation of novel meanings and not just reproduction of old ones in the bidirectional transmission processes between parents and children. Parents and children are addressed as full and equally agents in their interdependent relationship, while these relational dynamics are embedded within culture. This cultural context complicates bidirectional transmission influences in the parent-child relationship as both parents and children are influenced by many other contexts. Further, current research in the domain of parent-child relationships and current concepts of intergenerational transmission in family therapy are reviewed from a bidirectional cognitive-dialectical perspective.

  18. Topology Detection for Output-Coupling Weighted Complex Dynamical Networks with Coupling and Transmission Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinwei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Topology detection for output-coupling weighted complex dynamical networks with two types of time delays is investigated in this paper. Different from existing literatures, coupling delay and transmission delay are simultaneously taken into account in the output-coupling network. Based on the idea of the state observer, we build the drive-response system and apply LaSalle’s invariance principle to the error dynamical system of the drive-response system. Several convergent criteria are deduced in the form of algebraic inequalities. Some numerical simulations for the complex dynamical network, with node dynamics being chaotic, are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  19. Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes

    OpenAIRE

    Campbell, Karen M.; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V.; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, V. Alberto; Yagui, Mart?n; Morrison, Amy C.; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W.

    2015-01-01

    Background Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model devel...

  20. Multiscale model for pedestrian and infection dynamics during air travel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namilae, Sirish; Derjany, Pierrot; Mubayi, Anuj; Scotch, Mathew; Srinivasan, Ashok

    2017-05-01

    In this paper we develop a multiscale model combining social-force-based pedestrian movement with a population level stochastic infection transmission dynamics framework. The model is then applied to study the infection transmission within airplanes and the transmission of the Ebola virus through casual contacts. Drastic limitations on air-travel during epidemics, such as during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, carry considerable economic and human costs. We use the computational model to evaluate the effects of passenger movement within airplanes and air-travel policies on the geospatial spread of infectious diseases. We find that boarding policy by an airline is more critical for infection propagation compared to deplaning policy. Enplaning in two sections resulted in fewer infections than the currently followed strategy with multiple zones. In addition, we found that small commercial airplanes are better than larger ones at reducing the number of new infections in a flight. Aggregated results indicate that passenger movement strategies and airplane size predicted through these network models can have significant impact on an event like the 2014 Ebola epidemic. The methodology developed here is generic and can be readily modified to incorporate the impact from the outbreak of other directly transmitted infectious diseases.

  1. Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau; Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon; Yu, In-Keun

    2012-01-01

    The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

  2. Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau, E-mail: thanchau7787@gmail.com [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Yu, In-Keun, E-mail: yuik@changwon.ac.kr [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-08-15

    The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

  3. Matrix of transmission in structural dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, S.

    1975-01-01

    Within the last few years numerous papers have been published on the subject of matrix method in elasto-mechanics. 'Matrix of Transmission' is one of the methods in this field which has gained considerable attention in recent years. The basic philosophy adopted in this method is based on the idea of breaking up a complicated system into component parts with simple elastic and dynamic properties which can be readily expressed in matrix form. These component matrices are considered as building blocks, which are fitted together according to a set of predetermined rules which then provide the static and dynamic properties of the entire system. A common type of system occuring in engineering practice consists of a number of elements linked together end to end in the form of a chain. The 'Transfer Matrix' is ideally suited for such a system, because only successive multiplication is necessary to connect these elements together. The number of degrees of freedom and intermediate conditions present no difficulty. Although the 'Transfer Matrix' method is suitable for the treatment of branched and coupled systems its application to systems which do not have predominant chain topology is not effective. Apart from the requirement that the system be linearely elastic, no other restrictions are made. In this paper, it is intended to give a general outline and theoretical formulation of 'Transfer Matrix' and then its application to actual problems in structural dynamics related to seismic analysis. The natural frequencies of a freely vibrating elastic system can be found by applying proper end conditions. The end conditions will yield the frequency determinate to zero. By using a suitable numerical method, the natural frequencies and mode shapes are determined by making a frequency sweep within the range of interest. Results of an analysis of a typical nuclear building by this method show very close agreement with the results obtained by using ASKA and SAP IV program. Therefore

  4. Dynamic properties of human incudostapedial joint-Experimental measurement and finite element modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Shangyuan; Gan, Rong Z

    2018-04-01

    The incudostapedial joint (ISJ) is a synovial joint connecting the incus and stapes in the middle ear. Mechanical properties of the ISJ directly affect sound transmission from the tympanic membrane to the cochlea. However, how ISJ properties change with frequency has not been investigated. In this paper, we report the dynamic properties of the human ISJ measured in eight samples using a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA) for frequencies from 1 to 80 Hz at three temperatures of 5, 25 and 37 °C. The frequency-temperature superposition (FTS) principle was used to extrapolate the results to 8 kHz. The complex modulus of ISJ was measured with a mean storage modulus of 1.14 MPa at 1 Hz that increased to 3.01 MPa at 8 kHz, and a loss modulus that increased from 0.07 to 0.47 MPa. A 3-dimensional finite element (FE) model consisting of the articular cartilage, joint capsule and synovial fluid was then constructed to derive mechanical properties of ISJ components by matching the model results to experimental data. Modeling results showed that mechanical properties of the joint capsule and synovial fluid affected the dynamic behavior of the joint. This study contributes to a better understanding of the structure-function relationship of the ISJ for sound transmission. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

    2018-06-01

    Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

  6. Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

    2017-04-01

    We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with

  7. Parameters for the mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile acquisition and transmission: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroboghene H Otete

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile infection dynamics could contribute to the optimisation of strategies for its prevention and control. The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the available literature specifically identifying the quantitative parameters required for a compartmental mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission. METHODS: Six electronic healthcare databases were searched and all screening, data extraction and study quality assessments were undertaken in duplicate. Results were synthesised using a narrative approach. RESULTS: Fifty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Reproduction numbers for hospital based epidemics were described in two studies with a range from 0.55 to 7. Two studies provided consistent data on incubation periods. For 62% of cases, symptoms occurred in less than 4 weeks (3-28 days after infection. Evidence on contact patterns was identified in four studies but with limited data reported for populating a mathematical model. Two studies, including one without clinically apparent donor-recipient pairs, provided information on serial intervals for household or ward contacts, showing transmission intervals of <1 week in ward based contacts compared to up to 2 months for household contacts. Eight studies reported recovery rates of between 75%-100% for patients who had been treated with either metronidazole or vancomycin. Forty-nine studies gave recurrence rates of between 3% and 49% but were limited by varying definitions of recurrence. No study was found which specifically reported force of infection or net reproduction numbers. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently scant literature overtly citing estimates of the parameters required to inform the quantitative modelling of Clostridium difficile transmission. Further high quality studies to investigate transmission parameters are required, including through review of published epidemiological studies where these

  8. Stage-structured transmission of phocine distemper virus in the Dutch 2002 outbreak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepac, Petra; Pomeroy, Laura W.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Kuiken, Thijs; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Rijks, Jolianne M.

    2009-01-01

    Heterogeneities in transmission among hosts can be very important in shaping infectious disease dynamics. In mammals with strong social organization, such heterogeneities are often structured by functional stage: juveniles, subadults and adults. We investigate the importance of such stage-related heterogeneities in shaping the 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) outbreak in the Dutch Wadden Sea, when more than 40 per cent of the harbour seals were killed. We do this by comparing the statistical fit of a hierarchy of models with varying transmission complexity: homogeneous versus heterogeneous mixing and density- versus frequency-dependent transmission. We use the stranding data as a proxy for incidence and use Poisson likelihoods to estimate the ‘who acquires infection from whom’ (WAIFW) matrix. Statistically, the model with strong heterogeneous mixing and density-dependent transmission was found to best describe the transmission dynamics. However, patterns of incidence support a model of frequency-dependent transmission among adults and juveniles. Based on the maximum-likelihood WAIFW matrix estimates, we use the next-generation formalism to calculate an R0 between 2 and 2.5 for the Dutch 2002 PDV epidemic. PMID:19364743

  9. A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Sandip; McElwain, Terry F; Wan, Yan

    2011-10-01

    Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis) and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations), and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk) and points in the spread network (e.g., transhumance vs. sedentary herds). In addition, a preliminary

  10. A network control theory approach to modeling and optimal control of zoonoses: case study of brucellosis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Roy

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Developing control policies for zoonotic diseases is challenging, both because of the complex spread dynamics exhibited by these diseases, and because of the need for implementing complex multi-species surveillance and control efforts using limited resources. Mathematical models, and in particular network models, of disease spread are promising as tools for control-policy design, because they can provide comprehensive quantitative representations of disease transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A layered dynamical network model for the transmission and control of zoonotic diseases is introduced as a tool for analyzing disease spread and designing cost-effective surveillance and control. The model development is achieved using brucellosis transmission among wildlife, cattle herds, and human sub-populations in an agricultural system as a case study. Precisely, a model that tracks infection counts in interacting animal herds of multiple species (e.g., cattle herds and groups of wildlife for brucellosis and in human subpopulations is introduced. The model is then abstracted to a form that permits comprehensive targeted design of multiple control capabilities as well as model identification from data. Next, techniques are developed for such quantitative design of control policies (that are directed to both the animal and human populations, and for model identification from snapshot and time-course data, by drawing on recent results in the network control community. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The modeling approach is shown to provide quantitative insight into comprehensive control policies for zoonotic diseases, and in turn to permit policy design for mitigation of these diseases. For the brucellosis-transmission example in particular, numerous insights are obtained regarding the optimal distribution of resources among available control capabilities (e.g., vaccination, surveillance and culling, pasteurization of milk and points in

  11. A New Model of the Fractional Order Dynamics of the Planetary Gears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Nikolic-Stanojevic

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model of planetary gears dynamics is presented. Planetary gears are parametrically excited by the time-varying mesh stiffness that fluctuates as the number of gear tooth pairs in contact changes during gear rotation. In the paper, it has been indicated that even the small disturbance in design realizations of this gear cause nonlinear properties of dynamics which are the source of vibrations and noise in the gear transmission. Dynamic model of the planetary gears with four degrees of freedom is used. Applying the basic principles of analytical mechanics and taking the initial and boundary conditions into consideration, it is possible to obtain the system of equations representing physical meshing process between the two or more gears. This investigation was focused to a new model of the fractional order dynamics of the planetary gear. For this model analytical expressions for the corresponding fractional order modes like one frequency eigen vibrational modes are obtained. For one planetary gear, eigen fractional modes are obtained, and a visualization is presented. By using MathCAD the solution is obtained.

  12. Pollutant Dispersion Modeling in Natural Streams Using the Transmission Line Matrix Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safia Meddah

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerical modeling has become an indispensable tool for solving various physical problems. In this context, we present a model of pollutant dispersion in natural streams for the far field case where dispersion is considered longitudinal and one-dimensional in the flow direction. The Transmission Line Matrix (TLM, which has earned a reputation as powerful and efficient numerical method, is used. The presented one-dimensional TLM model requires a minimum input data and provides a significant gain in computing time. To validate our model, the results are compared with observations and experimental data from the river Severn (UK. The results show a good agreement with experimental data. The model can be used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of a pollutant in natural streams for effective and rapid decision-making in a case of emergency, such as accidental discharges in a stream with a dynamic similar to that of the river Severn (UK.

  13. Livestock-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in pigs - prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broens, E.M.

    2011-01-01

    In 2004, an association between human carriage of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and contact with pigs was found. To assess the implications of this finding for veterinary and public health more insight into the prevalence, risk factors and transmission dynamics of

  14. Seasonal and regional dynamics of M. ulcerans transmission in environmental context: deciphering the role of water bugs as hosts and vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marion, Estelle; Eyangoh, Sara; Yeramian, Edouard; Doannio, Julien; Landier, Jordi; Aubry, Jacques; Fontanet, Arnaud; Rogier, Christophe; Cassisa, Viviane; Cottin, Jane; Marot, Agnès; Eveillard, Matthieu; Kamdem, Yannick; Legras, Pierre; Deshayes, Caroline; Saint-André, Jean-Paul; Marsollier, Laurent

    2010-07-06

    Buruli ulcer, the third mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy, is caused by the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans. Various modes of transmission have been suspected for this disease, with no general consensus acceptance for any of them up to now. Since laboratory models demonstrated the ability of water bugs to transmit M. ulcerans, a particular attention is focused on the transmission of the bacilli by water bugs as hosts and vectors. However, it is only through detailed knowledge of the biodiversity and ecology of water bugs that the importance of this mode of transmission can be fully assessed. It is the objective of the work here to decipher the role of water bugs in M. ulcerans ecology and transmission, based on large-scale field studies. The distribution of M. ulcerans-hosting water bugs was monitored on previously unprecedented time and space scales: a total of 7,407 water bugs, belonging to large number of different families, were collected over one year, in Buruli ulcer endemic and non endemic areas in central Cameroon. This study demonstrated the presence of M. ulcerans in insect saliva. In addition, the field results provided a full picture of the ecology of transmission in terms of biodiversity and detailed specification of seasonal and regional dynamics, with large temporal heterogeneity in the insect tissue colonization rate and detection of M. ulcerans only in water bug tissues collected in Buruli ulcer endemic areas. The large-scale detection of bacilli in saliva of biting water bugs gives enhanced weight to their role in M. ulcerans transmission. On practical grounds, beyond the ecological interest, the results concerning seasonal and regional dynamics can provide an efficient tool in the hands of sanitary authorities to monitor environmental risks associated with Buruli ulcer.

  15. Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

    2013-01-01

    This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

  16. Rigorous theoretical derivation of lumped models to transmission line systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Jixiang

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of the negative electric parameter concept, i.e. negative lumped resistance, inductance, conductance and capacitance (N-RLGC), the lumped equivalent models of transmission line systems, including the circuit model, two-port π-network and T-network, are given. We start from the N-segment-ladder-like equivalent networks composed distributed parameters, and achieve the input impedance in the form of a continued fraction. Utilizing the continued fraction theory, the expressions of input impedance are obtained under three kinds of extreme cases, i.e. the load impedances are equal to zero, infinity and characteristic impedance, respectively. When the number of segment N is limited to infinity, they are transformed to lumped elements. Comparison between the distributed model and lumped model of transmission lines, the expression of tanh γd, which is the key term in the transmission line equations, are obtained by RLGC, furthermore, according to input admittance, admittance matrix and ABCD matrix of transmission lines, the lumped equivalent circuit models, π-networks and T-networks have been given. The models are verified in the frequency and time domain, respectively, showing that the models are accurate and efficient. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  17. A multi-objective framework for dynamic transmission expansion planning in competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foroud, Asghar Akbari; Abdoos, Ali Akbar; Keypour, Reza; Amirahmadi, Meisam

    2010-01-01

    Restructuring of power system has changed the traditional planning objectives and introduced challenges in the field of Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP). Due to these changes, new approaches and criteria are needed for transmission planning in deregulated environment. Therefore, in this paper, a dynamic expansion methodology is presented using a multi-objective optimization framework. Investment cost, congestion cost and reliability are considered in the optimization as three objectives. To overcome the difficulties in solving the non-convex and mixed integer nature of the optimization problems, a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA II) approach is used followed by a fuzzy decision making analysis to obtain the final optimal solution. The planning methodology has been demonstrated on the IEEE 24-bus test system and north-east of Iran national 400 kV transmission grid to show the feasibility and capabilities of the proposed algorithm in electricity market environment. (author)

  18. Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Martínez-Campos, Carmen; Nakazawa, Yoshinori; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

    2005-09-01

    Numerous human diseases-malaria, dengue, yellow fever and leishmaniasis, to name a few-are transmitted by insect vectors with brief life cycles and biting activity that varies in both space and time. Although the general geographic distributions of these epidemiologically important species are known, the spatiotemporal variation in their emergence and activity remains poorly understood. We used ecological niche modeling via a genetic algorithm to produce time-specific predictive models of monthly distributions of Aedes aegypti in Mexico in 1995. Significant predictions of monthly mosquito activity and distributions indicate that predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of disease vector species is feasible; significant coincidence with human cases of dengue indicate that these dynamics probably translate directly into transmission of dengue virus to humans. This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk.

  19. Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Sanjay R; Chaillon, Antoine; Gaines, Tommi L; Gonzalez-Zuniga, Patricia E; Stockman, Jamila K; Almanza-Reyes, Horatio; Chavez, Jose Roman; Vera, Alicia; Wagner, Karla D; Patterson, Thomas L; Scott, Brianna; Smith, Davey M; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2018-02-10

    North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics. HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals. Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles). Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Advanced semi-active engine and transmission mounts: tools for modelling, analysis, design, and tuning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farjoud, Alireza; Taylor, Russell; Schumann, Eric; Schlangen, Timothy

    2014-02-01

    This paper is focused on modelling, design, and testing of semi-active magneto-rheological (MR) engine and transmission mounts used in the automotive industry. The purpose is to develop a complete analysis, synthesis, design, and tuning tool that reduces the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory and field tests. A detailed mathematical model of such devices is developed using multi-physics modelling techniques for physical systems with various energy domains. The model includes all major features of an MR mount including fluid dynamics, fluid track, elastic components, decoupler, rate-dip, gas-charged chamber, MR fluid rheology, magnetic circuit, electronic driver, and control algorithm. Conventional passive hydraulic mounts can also be studied using the same mathematical model. The model is validated using standard experimental procedures. It is used for design and parametric study of mounts; effects of various geometric and material parameters on dynamic response of mounts can be studied. Additionally, this model can be used to test various control strategies to obtain best vibration isolation performance by tuning control parameters. Another benefit of this work is that nonlinear interactions between sub-components of the mount can be observed and investigated. This is not possible by using simplified linear models currently available.

  1. Quantification of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus Transmission Rates Using Published Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goris, N.E.; Eble, P.L.; Jong, de M.C.M.; Clercq, K.

    2009-01-01

    Foot-and-mouth disease is an extremely infectious and devastating disease affecting all species of cloven-hoofed animals. To understand the epidemiology of the causative virus and predict viral transmission dynamics, quantified transmission parameters are essential to decision makers and modellers

  2. Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

    2013-01-01

    Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

  3. Modeling infection transmission in primate networks to predict centrality-based risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Valéria; Duboscq, Julie; Sarabian, Cécile; Thomas, Elodie; Sueur, Cédric; MacIntosh, Andrew J J

    2016-07-01

    Social structure can theoretically regulate disease risk by mediating exposure to pathogens via social proximity and contact. Investigating the role of central individuals within a network may help predict infectious agent transmission as well as implement disease control strategies, but little is known about such dynamics in real primate networks. We combined social network analysis and a modeling approach to better understand transmission of a theoretical infectious agent in wild Japanese macaques, highly social animals which form extended but highly differentiated social networks. We collected focal data from adult females living on the islands of Koshima and Yakushima, Japan. Individual identities as well as grooming networks were included in a Markov graph-based simulation. In this model, the probability that an individual will transmit an infectious agent depends on the strength of its relationships with other group members. Similarly, its probability of being infected depends on its relationships with already infected group members. We correlated: (i) the percentage of subjects infected during a latency-constrained epidemic; (ii) the mean latency to complete transmission; (iii) the probability that an individual is infected first among all group members; and (iv) each individual's mean rank in the chain of transmission with different individual network centralities (eigenvector, strength, betweenness). Our results support the hypothesis that more central individuals transmit infections in a shorter amount of time and to more subjects but also become infected more quickly than less central individuals. However, we also observed that the spread of infectious agents on the Yakushima network did not always differ from expectations of spread on random networks. Generalizations about the importance of observed social networks in pathogen flow should thus be made with caution, since individual characteristics in some real world networks appear less relevant than

  4. Study on Tower Models for EHV Transmission Line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Bao-Qing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lightning outage accident is one of the main factors that threat seriously the safe and reliable operation of power system. So it is very important to establish reasonable transmission tower model and evaluate the impulse response characteristic of lightning wave traveling on the transmission tower properly for determining reliable lightning protection performance. With the help of Electromagnetic Transient Program (EMTP, six 500kV tower models are built. Aiming at one line to one transformer operating mode of 500kV substation, the intruding wave overvoltage under different tower models is calculated. The effect of tower model on intruding overvoltage has been studied. The results show that different tower models can result in great differences to the calculation results. Hence, reasonable selection of the tower model in the calculation of back- strike intruding wave is very important.

  5. A Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Structured Vector Population and Seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakary Traoré

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model of nonautonomous ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of malaria transmission with age structure for the vector population. The biting rate of mosquitoes is considered as a positive periodic function which depends on climatic factors. The basic reproduction ratio of the model is obtained and we show that it is the threshold parameter between the extinction and the persistence of the disease. Thus, by applying the theorem of comparison and the theory of uniform persistence, we prove that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and if it is greater than 1, then there exists at least one positive periodic solution. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate our analytical results.

  6. Viscoelastic dynamic models of resilient elements used in railway tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbiciak Artur

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents selected theoretical aspects concerning viscoelastic dynamic modelling of resilient elements used in railway tracks. In order to characterize the research methodology for resilient mats in railway tracks, German Standards [1-4] are used herein. The main goal of the paper is to demonstrate the procedure of insertion loss calculation for a single degree of freedom truck system containing under-ballast mats. Selected results of certain dynamic characteristics of resilient truck systems (transmissibility, Bode and Nyquist plots etc. are also discussed. The results of calculations visualized in graphs, were obtained by using own applications written in programming language MATLAB.

  7. Realistic modeling of radiation transmission inspection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sale, K.E.

    1993-01-01

    We have applied Monte Carlo particle transport methods to assess a proposed neutron transmission inspection system for checked luggage. The geometry of the system and the time, energy and angle dependence of the source have been modeled in detail. A pulsed deuteron beam incident on a thick Be target generates a neutron pulse with a very broad energy spectrum which is detected after passage through the luggage item by a plastic scintillator detector operating in current mode (as opposed to pulse counting mode). The neutron transmission as a function of time information is used to infer the densities of hydrogen, carbon, oxygen and nitrogen in the volume sampled. The measured elemental densities can be compared to signatures for explosives or other contraband. By using such computational modeling it is possible to optimize many aspects of the design of an inspection system without costly and time consuming prototyping experiments or to determine that a proposed scheme will not work. The methods applied here can be used to evaluate neutron or photon schemes based on transmission, scattering or reaction techniques

  8. A regional-scale, high resolution dynamical malaria model that accounts for population density, climate and surface hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian M; Ermert, Volker

    2013-02-18

    The relative roles of climate variability and population related effects in malaria transmission could be better understood if regional-scale dynamical malaria models could account for these factors. A new dynamical community malaria model is introduced that accounts for the temperature and rainfall influences on the parasite and vector life cycles which are finely resolved in order to correctly represent the delay between the rains and the malaria season. The rainfall drives a simple but physically based representation of the surface hydrology. The model accounts for the population density in the calculation of daily biting rates. Model simulations of entomological inoculation rate and circumsporozoite protein rate compare well to data from field studies from a wide range of locations in West Africa that encompass both seasonal endemic and epidemic fringe areas. A focus on Bobo-Dioulasso shows the ability of the model to represent the differences in transmission rates between rural and peri-urban areas in addition to the seasonality of malaria. Fine spatial resolution regional integrations for Eastern Africa reproduce the malaria atlas project (MAP) spatial distribution of the parasite ratio, and integrations for West and Eastern Africa show that the model grossly reproduces the reduction in parasite ratio as a function of population density observed in a large number of field surveys, although it underestimates malaria prevalence at high densities probably due to the neglect of population migration. A new dynamical community malaria model is publicly available that accounts for climate and population density to simulate malaria transmission on a regional scale. The model structure facilitates future development to incorporate migration, immunity and interventions.

  9. Performance Evaluation on Transmission Tower-Line System with Passive Friction Dampers Subjected to Wind Excitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The vibration control and performance evaluation on a transmission-tower line system by using friction dampers subjected to wind excitations are carried out in this study. The three-dimensional finite element (FE model of a transmission tower is firstly constructed. A two-dimensional lumped mass model of a transmission tower is developed for dynamic analysis. The analytical model of transmission tower-line system is proposed by taking the dynamic interaction between the tower and the transmission lines into consideration. The mechanical model of passive friction damper is presented by involving the effects of damper axial stiffness. The equation of motion of the transmission tower-line system incorporated with the friction dampers disturbed by wind excitations is established. A real transmission tower-line system is taken as an example to examine the feasibility and reliability of the proposed control approach. An extensive parameter study is carried out to find the optimal parameters of friction damper and to assess the effects of slipping force axial stiffness and hysteresis loop on control performance. The work on an example structure indicates that the application of friction dampers with optimal parameters could significantly reduce wind-induced responses of the transmission tower-line system.

  10. Nipah virus transmission in a hamster model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmie de Wit

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on epidemiological data, it is believed that human-to-human transmission plays an important role in Nipah virus outbreaks. No experimental data are currently available on the potential routes of human-to-human transmission of Nipah virus. In a first dose-finding experiment in Syrian hamsters, it was shown that Nipah virus was predominantly shed via the respiratory tract within nasal and oropharyngeal secretions. Although Nipah viral RNA was detected in urogenital and rectal swabs, no infectious virus was recovered from these samples, suggesting no viable virus was shed via these routes. In addition, hamsters inoculated with high doses shed significantly higher amounts of viable Nipah virus particles in comparison with hamsters infected with lower inoculum doses. Using the highest inoculum dose, three potential routes of Nipah virus transmission were investigated in the hamster model: transmission via fomites, transmission via direct contact and transmission via aerosols. It was demonstrated that Nipah virus is transmitted efficiently via direct contact and inefficiently via fomites, but not via aerosols. These findings are in line with epidemiological data which suggest that direct contact with nasal and oropharyngeal secretions of Nipah virus infected individuals resulted in greater risk of Nipah virus infection. The data provide new and much-needed insights into the modes and efficiency of Nipah virus transmission and have important public health implications with regards to the risk assessment and management of future Nipah virus outbreaks.

  11. Model distinguishability and inference robustness in mechanisms of cholera transmission and loss of immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Elizabeth C; Kelly, Michael R; Ochocki, Brad M; Akinwumi, Segun M; Hamre, Karen E S; Tien, Joseph H; Eisenberg, Marisa C

    2017-05-07

    Mathematical models of cholera and waterborne disease vary widely in their structures, in terms of transmission pathways, loss of immunity, and a range of other features. These differences can affect model dynamics, with different models potentially yielding different predictions and parameter estimates from the same data. Given the increasing use of mathematical models to inform public health decision-making, it is important to assess model distinguishability (whether models can be distinguished based on fit to data) and inference robustness (whether inferences from the model are robust to realistic variations in model structure). In this paper, we examined the effects of uncertainty in model structure in the context of epidemic cholera, testing a range of models with differences in transmission and loss of immunity structure, based on known features of cholera epidemiology. We fit these models to simulated epidemic and long-term data, as well as data from the 2006 Angola epidemic. We evaluated model distinguishability based on fit to data, and whether the parameter values, model behavior, and forecasting ability can accurately be inferred from incidence data. In general, all models were able to successfully fit to all data sets, both real and simulated, regardless of whether the model generating the simulated data matched the fitted model. However, in the long-term data, the best model fits were achieved when the loss of immunity structures matched those of the model that simulated the data. Two parameters, one representing person-to-person transmission and the other representing the reporting rate, were accurately estimated across all models, while the remaining parameters showed broad variation across the different models and data sets. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was often poorly estimated even using the correct model, due to practical unidentifiability issues in the waterborne transmission pathway which were consistent across all models. Forecasting

  12. Modelling the geographic distribution of wind power and the impact on transmission needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2003-01-01

    Through energy systems modelling, transmission systems modelling and geographical modelling, the article examines the sensitivity of the response of the transmission system to the geographic distributions of wind power and in particular the sensitivity of the results to the accuracy...... of the distributed modelled. The results show that accuracy of the geographic modelling while important for the analysis of specific single transmission lines is not important for the analysis of the general response of the transmission system. The analyses thus corroborate previous analyses that demonstrated...

  13. Transmission dynamics and resistance in staphylococci

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hetem, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on nosocomial transmission and resistance of S. aureus and CoNS. After the general introduction on S. aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci, part II focuses on the nosocomial transmission capacity of different MRSA clones in the hospital setting. In chapter 2 the

  14. Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adisak Bhumiratana

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world’s most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders.

  15. STDP in adaptive neurons gives close-to-optimal information transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Hennequin

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Spike-frequency adaptation is known to enhance the transmission of information in sensory spiking neurons, by rescaling the dynamic range for input processing, matching it to the temporal statistics of the sensory stimulus. Achieving maximal information transmission has also been recently postulated as a role for Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP. However, the link between optimal plasticity and STDP in cortex remains loose, and so does the relationship between STDP and adaptation processes. We investigate how STDP, as described by recent minimal models derived from experimental data, influences the quality of information transmission in an adapting neuron. We show that a phenomenological model based on triplets of spikes yields almost the same information rate as an optimal model specially designed to this end. In contrast, the standard pair-based model of STDP does not improve information transmission as much. This result holds not only for additive STDP with hard weight bounds, known to produce bimodal distributions of synaptic weights, but also for weight-dependent STDP in the context of unimodal but skewed weight distributions. We analyze the similarities between the triplet model and the optimal learning rule, and find that the triplet effect is an important feature of the optimal model when the neuron is adaptive. If STDP is optimized for information transmission, it must take into account the dynamical properties of the postsynaptic cell, which might explain the target-cell specificity of STDP. In particular, it accounts for the differences found in vitro between STDP at excitatory synapses onto principal cells and those onto fast-spiking interneurons.

  16. Medical image transmission via communication satellite: evaluation of ultrasonographic images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, H; Horikoshi, H; Shiba, H; Shimamoto, S

    1996-01-01

    As compared with terrestrial circuits, communication satellites possess superior characteristics such as wide area coverage, broadcasting functions, high capacity, and resistance to disasters. Utilizing the narrow band channel (64 kbps) of the stationary communication satellite JCSAT1 located at an altitude of 36,000 km above the equator, we investigated satelliterelayed dynamic medical images transmitted by video signals, using hepatic ultrasonography as a model. We conclude that the "variable playing speed transmission scheme" proposed by us is effective for the transmission of dynamic images in the narrow band channel. This promises to permit diverse utilization and applications for purposes such as the transmission of other types of ultrasonic images as well as remotely directed medical diagnosis and treatment.

  17. Dynamically prioritized progressive transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanford, Ronald

    1992-04-01

    Retrieval of image data from a centralized database may be subject to bandwidth limitations, whether due to a low-bandwidth communications link or to contention from simultaneous accesses over a high-bandwidth link. Progressive transmission can alleviate this problem by encoding image data so that any prefix of the data stream approximates the complete image at a coarse level of resolution. The longer the prefix, the finer the resolution. In many cases, as little at 1 percent of the image data may be sufficient to decide whether to discard the image, to permit the retrieval to continue, or to restrict retrieval to a subsection of the image. Our approach treats resolution not as a fixed attribute of the image, but rather as a resource which may be allocated to portions of the image at the direction of a user-specified priority function. The default priority function minimizes error by allocating more resolution to regions of high variance. The user may also point to regions of interest requesting priority transmission. More advanced target recognition strategies may be incorporated at the user's discretion. Multispectral imagery is supported. The user engineering implications are profounded. There is immediate response to a query that might otherwise take minutes to complete. The data is transmitted in small increments so that no single user dominates the communications bandwidth. The user-directed improvement means that bandwidth is focused on interesting information. The user may continue working with the first coarse approximations while further image data is still arriving. The algorithm has been implemented in C on Sun, Silicon Graphics, and NeXT workstations, and in Lisp on a Symbolics. Transmission speeds reach as high as 60,000 baud using a Sparc or 68040 processor when storing data to memory; somewhat less if also updating a graphical display. The memory requirements are roughly five bytes per image pixel. Both computational and memory costs may be reduced

  18. Light aircraft sound transmission studies - Noise reduction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

    1987-01-01

    Experimental tests conducted on the fuselage of a single-engine Piper Cherokee light aircraft suggest that the cabin interior noise can be reduced by increasing the transmission loss of the dominant sound transmission paths and/or by increasing the cabin interior sound absorption. The validity of using a simple room equation model to predict the cabin interior sound-pressure level for different fuselage and exterior sound field conditions is also presented. The room equation model is based on the sound power flow balance for the cabin space and utilizes the measured transmitted sound intensity data. The room equation model predictions were considered good enough to be used for preliminary acoustical design studies.

  19. Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Hénaux

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates, considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1-2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50-60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

  20. Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénaux, Viviane; Samuel, Michael D.; Bunck, Christine M.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

  1. Equivalent Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2017-01-01

    Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

  2. Drivability Improvement Control for Vehicle Start-Up Applied to an Automated Manual Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danna Jiang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Drivability is the key factor for the automated manual transmission. It includes fast response to the driver’s demand and the driving comfort. This paper deals with a control methodology applied to an automated manual transmission vehicle for drivability enhancement during vehicle start-up phase. Based on a piecewise model of powertrain, a multiple-model predictive controller (mMPC is designed with the engine speed, clutch disc speed, and wheel speed as the measurable input variables and the engine torque reference and clutch friction torque reference as the controller’s output variables. The model not only includes the clutch dynamic, the flexible shaft dynamic, but also includes the actuators’ delay character. Considering the driver’s intention, a slipping speed trajectory is generated based on the acceleration pedal dynamically. The designed control strategy is verified on a complete powertrain and longitudinal vehicle dynamic model with different driver’s torque demands.

  3. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A

  4. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-02-17

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

  5. Transmission Model of Hepatitis B Virus with the Migration Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Altaf Khan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a globally infectious disease. Mathematical modeling of HBV transmission is an interesting research area. In this paper, we present characteristics of HBV virus transmission in the form of a mathematical model. We analyzed the effect of immigrants in the model to study the effect of immigrants for the host population. We added the following flow parameters: “the transmission between migrated and exposed class” and “the transmission between migrated and acute class.” With these new features, we obtained a compartment model of six differential equations. First, we find the basic threshold quantity Ro and then find the local asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, we find the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Previous similar publications have not added the kind of information about the numerical results of the model. In our case, from numerical simulation, a detailed discussion of the parameters and their numerical results is presented. We claim that with these assumptions and by adding the migrated class, the model informs policy for governments, to be aware of the immigrants and subject them to tests about the disease status. Immigrants for short visits and students should be subjected to tests to reduce the number of immigrants with disease.

  6. Pulsed Power for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    dehope, w j; browning, n; campbell, g; cook, e; king, w; lagrange, t; reed, b; stuart, b; Shuttlesworth, R; Pyke, B

    2009-06-25

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has converted a commercial 200kV transmission electron microscope (TEM) into an ultrafast, nanoscale diagnostic tool for material science studies. The resulting Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) has provided a unique tool for the study of material phase transitions, reaction front analyses, and other studies in the fields of chemistry, materials science, and biology. The TEM's thermionic electron emission source was replaced with a fast photocathode and a laser beam path was provided for ultraviolet surface illumination. The resulting photoelectron beam gives downstream images of 2 and 20 ns exposure times at 100 and 10 nm spatial resolution. A separate laser, used as a pump pulse, is used to heat, ignite, or shock samples while the photocathode electron pulses, carefully time-synchronized with the pump, function as probe in fast transient studies. The device functions in both imaging and diffraction modes. A laser upgrade is underway to make arbitrary cathode pulse trains of variable pulse width of 10-1000 ns. Along with a fast e-beam deflection scheme, a 'movie mode' capability will be added to this unique diagnostic tool. This talk will review conventional electron microscopy and its limitations, discuss the development and capabilities of DTEM, in particularly addressing the prime and pulsed power considerations in the design and fabrication of the DTEM, and conclude with the presentation of a deflector and solid-state pulser design for Movie-Mode DTEM.

  7. Pulsed Power for a Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeHope, W.J.; Browning, N.; Campbell, G.; Cook, E.; King, W.; Lagrange, T.; Reed, B.; Stuart, B.; Shuttlesworth, R.; Pyke, B.

    2009-01-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has converted a commercial 200kV transmission electron microscope (TEM) into an ultrafast, nanoscale diagnostic tool for material science studies. The resulting Dynamic Transmission Electron Microscope (DTEM) has provided a unique tool for the study of material phase transitions, reaction front analyses, and other studies in the fields of chemistry, materials science, and biology. The TEM's thermionic electron emission source was replaced with a fast photocathode and a laser beam path was provided for ultraviolet surface illumination. The resulting photoelectron beam gives downstream images of 2 and 20 ns exposure times at 100 and 10 nm spatial resolution. A separate laser, used as a pump pulse, is used to heat, ignite, or shock samples while the photocathode electron pulses, carefully time-synchronized with the pump, function as probe in fast transient studies. The device functions in both imaging and diffraction modes. A laser upgrade is underway to make arbitrary cathode pulse trains of variable pulse width of 10-1000 ns. Along with a fast e-beam deflection scheme, a 'movie mode' capability will be added to this unique diagnostic tool. This talk will review conventional electron microscopy and its limitations, discuss the development and capabilities of DTEM, in particularly addressing the prime and pulsed power considerations in the design and fabrication of the DTEM, and conclude with the presentation of a deflector and solid-state pulser design for Movie-Mode DTEM

  8. The effect of increasing water temperatures on Schistosoma mansoni transmission and Biomphalaria pfeifferi population dynamics: an agent-based modelling study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicky McCreesh

    Full Text Available There is increasing interest in the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Little is known, however, about the likely effects of increasing water-body temperatures on transmission.We have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma and intermediate host snail life-cycles, parameterised using data from S. mansoni and Biomphalaria pfeifferi laboratory and field-based observations. Infection risk is calculated as the number of cercariae in the model, adjusted for their probability of causing infection.The number of snails in the model is approximately constant between 15-31°C. Outside this range, snail numbers drop sharply, and the snail population cannot survive outside the range 14-32°C. Mean snail generation time decreases with increasing temperature from 176 days at 14°C to 46 days at 26°C. Human infection risk is highest between 16-18°C and 1pm and 6-10pm in calm water, and 20-25°C and 12-4pm in flowing water. Infection risk increases sharply when temperatures increase above the minimum necessary for sustained transmission.The model suggests that, in areas where S. mansoni is already endemic, warming of the water at transmission sites will have differential effects on both snails and parasites depending on abiotic properties of the water-body. Snail generation times will decrease in most areas, meaning that snail populations will recover faster from natural population reductions and from snail-control efforts. We suggest a link between the ecological properties of transmission sites and infection risk which could significantly affect the outcomes of interventions designed to alter water contact behaviour--proposing that such interventions are more likely to reduce infection levels at river locations than lakes, where infection risk remains high for longer. In cooler areas where snails are currently found, increasing temperatures may significantly increase infection risk, potentially leading

  9. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  10. Molecular Modeling of Prion Transmission to Humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Levavasseur

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Using different prion strains, such as the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease agent and the atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents, and using transgenic mice expressing human or bovine prion protein, we assessed the reliability of protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA to model interspecies and genetic barriers to prion transmission. We compared our PMCA results with in vivo transmission data characterized by attack rates, i.e., the percentage of inoculated mice that developed the disease. Using 19 seed/substrate combinations, we observed that a significant PMCA amplification was only obtained when the mouse line used as substrate is susceptible to the corresponding strain. Our results suggest that PMCA provides a useful tool to study genetic barriers to transmission and to study the zoonotic potential of emerging prion strains.

  11. Environmental Contamination as an Important Route for the Transmission of the Hospital Pathogen VRE: Modeling and Prediction of Classical Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Wolkewitz

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Background In addition to the close contact between patients and medical staff, the contamination of surfaces plays an important role in the transmission of pathogens such as vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE. Mathematical modeling is a very convenient tool for hospital infection control as it allows the quantitative prediction of the effects of special hygiene and control interventions. Methods We present a compartmental model which describes the dynamics of transmission from patient to patient, also taking into account the interaction with medical staff and environmental contamination. Empirical data from a VRE outbreak in the onco-haematological unit at the University Medical Center Freiburg (Germany were collected with 100 consecutive admissions being followed up for 90 days. Stochastical simulations were used to predict the prevalence of patients colonised with VRE at the time when at least one of the following interventions were introduced: hand hygiene, disinfection of surfaces, cohorting, screening and antibiotic reduction. Results Graphical figures show the temporal dynamics of several simulation scenarios. If no prevention or intervention is present, simulations based on transmission models predict an expected endemic prevalence per ward of 0.83 (95% CI:0.66, 1.00 after the first infected person enters the unit. Interventions may reduce this prevalence, but only the combination of several interventions can control a VRE outbreak. Conclusions The model predicts that only the combination of several interventions can control an VRE outbreak in this setting. The inclusion of environmental contamination improves the compartmental model and allows a prediction of the efficacy of the disinfection of surfaces. These results can be applied to other settings and will therefore help to understand and control the spread of nosocomial pathogens.

  12. Forecasting Ebola with a regression transmission model

    OpenAIRE

    Asher, Jason

    2017-01-01

    We describe a relatively simple stochastic model of Ebola transmission that was used to produce forecasts with the lowest mean absolute error among Ebola Forecasting Challenge participants. The model enabled prediction of peak incidence, the timing of this peak, and final size of the outbreak. The underlying discrete-time compartmental model used a time-varying reproductive rate modeled as a multiplicative random walk driven by the number of infectious individuals. This structure generalizes ...

  13. Modelling the impact of antimalarial quality on the transmission of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleisha R. Brock

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of poor quality antimalarial medicines, including the use of non-recommended medicines for treatment such as sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP monotherapy, undermines malaria control and elimination efforts. Furthermore, the use of subtherapeutic doses of the active ingredient(s can theoretically promote the emergence and transmission of drug resistant parasites. Methods: We developed a deterministic compartmental model to quantify the impact of antimalarial medicine quality on the transmission of SP resistance, and validated it using sensitivity analysis and a comparison with data from Kenya collected in 2006. We modelled human and mosquito population dynamics, incorporating two Plasmodium falciparum subtypes (SP-sensitive and SP-resistant and both poor quality and good quality (artemether-lumefantrine antimalarial use. Findings: The model predicted that an increase in human malaria cases, and among these, an increase in the proportion of SP-resistant infections, resulted from an increase in poor quality SP antimalarial use, whether it was full- or half-dose SP monotherapy. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that an increase in poor quality antimalarial use predicts an increase in the transmission of resistance. This highlights the need for stricter control and regulation on the availability and use of poor quality antimalarial medicines, in order to offer safe and effective treatments, and work towards the eradication of malaria. Keywords: Deterministic compartmental model, Falsified antimalarial medicine, Substandard antimalarial treatments, Antimalarial quality, Plasmodium falciparum malaria, Drug resistance

  14. Development of Matlab Simulink model for dynamics analysis of passive suspension system for lightweight vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.

    2017-10-01

    In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.

  15. Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Donelly, C.A.; Ferguson, N.M.; Anderson, R.M.

    2003-01-01

    Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to

  16. Dynamics of a Fractional Order HIV Infection Model with Specific Functional Response and Cure Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnane Boukhouima

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a fractional order model in this paper to describe the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. In the model, the infection transmission process is modeled by a specific functional response. First, we show that the model is mathematically and biologically well posed. Second, the local and global stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Finally, some numerical simulations are presented in order to illustrate our theoretical results.

  17. Emerging Infectious Diseases and Blood Safety: Modeling the Transfusion-Transmission Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, Philip; Gambhir, Manoj; Cheng, Allen C; McQuilten, Zoe K; Seed, Clive R; Wood, Erica M

    2017-07-01

    While the transfusion-transmission (TT) risk associated with the major transfusion-relevant viruses such as HIV is now very low, during the last 20 years there has been a growing awareness of the threat to blood safety from emerging infectious diseases, a number of which are known to be, or are potentially, transfusion transmissible. Two published models for estimating the transfusion-transmission risk from EIDs, referred to as the Biggerstaff-Petersen model and the European Upfront Risk Assessment Tool (EUFRAT), respectively, have been applied to several EIDs in outbreak situations. We describe and compare the methodological principles of both models, highlighting their similarities and differences. We also discuss the appropriateness of comparing results from the two models. Quantitating the TT risk of EIDs can inform decisions about risk mitigation strategies and their cost-effectiveness. Finally, we present a qualitative risk assessment for Zika virus (ZIKV), an EID agent that has caused several outbreaks since 2007. In the latest and largest ever outbreak, several probable cases of transfusion-transmission ZIKV have been reported, indicating that it is transfusion-transmissible and therefore a risk to blood safety. We discuss why quantitative modeling the TT risk of ZIKV is currently problematic. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

  19. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinkenberg, Don; Backer, Jantien A; Didelot, Xavier; Colijn, Caroline; Wallinga, Jacco

    2017-05-01

    Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection times place more

  20. Simultaneous inference of phylogenetic and transmission trees in infectious disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Don Klinkenberg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Whole-genome sequencing of pathogens from host samples becomes more and more routine during infectious disease outbreaks. These data provide information on possible transmission events which can be used for further epidemiologic analyses, such as identification of risk factors for infectivity and transmission. However, the relationship between transmission events and sequence data is obscured by uncertainty arising from four largely unobserved processes: transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics and mutation. To properly resolve transmission events, these processes need to be taken into account. Recent years have seen much progress in theory and method development, but existing applications make simplifying assumptions that often break up the dependency between the four processes, or are tailored to specific datasets with matching model assumptions and code. To obtain a method with wider applicability, we have developed a novel approach to reconstruct transmission trees with sequence data. Our approach combines elementary models for transmission, case observation, within-host pathogen dynamics, and mutation, under the assumption that the outbreak is over and all cases have been observed. We use Bayesian inference with MCMC for which we have designed novel proposal steps to efficiently traverse the posterior distribution, taking account of all unobserved processes at once. This allows for efficient sampling of transmission trees from the posterior distribution, and robust estimation of consensus transmission trees. We implemented the proposed method in a new R package phybreak. The method performs well in tests of both new and published simulated data. We apply the model to five datasets on densely sampled infectious disease outbreaks, covering a wide range of epidemiological settings. Using only sampling times and sequences as data, our analyses confirmed the original results or improved on them: the more realistic infection

  1. Study of the Vibration Transmission and Path Recognition of an Underground Powerhouse Using Energy Finite Element Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Taking the underground powerhouse of a pumped storage power station as the engineering background, this study established a 3D finite element model of the main and auxiliary powerhouse and performed the dynamic harmonica calculation for its fluctuating pressure. Based on the power flow theory, the ANSYS Parametric Design Language (APDL procedure was completed to calculate the power transmission in the powerhouse. The law of dominant path recognition was first proposed to assess the structure’s dominant transmission using a numerical solution on nodes in the model. The conductivity of the closed-cell foam that filled the structure’s joints was examined, as were the dynamic transmission features of the rock around and beneath the powerhouse. The results indicated that, as a structural joint filler, closed-cell foam could actively restrict vibration transmission, and the directions of dynamic transmission were mainly perpendicular to and along the river in the foundation rock. Approximately 20 percent of the foundation rock beneath the auxiliary powerhouse was disturbed by the concrete around the spiral case and induced vibrations in the powerhouse’s lower floors. Vibration in the higher floors was derived from downstream rock, and the dynamic transmission effect had a clear advantage along the horizontal direction.

  2. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, F. [ABB, Inc., Santa Clara, CA 95050 (United States); Sheble, G.B. [Portland State University, Portland, OR 97207 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  3. Electricity market equilibrium model with resource constraint and transmission congestion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao, F.; Sheble, G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity market equilibrium model not only helps Independent System Operator/Regulator analyze market performance and market power, but also provides Market Participants the ability to build optimal bidding strategies based on Microeconomics analysis. Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) is attractive compared to traditional models and many efforts have been made on it before. However, most past research focused on a single-period, single-market model and did not address the fact that GENCOs hold a portfolio of assets in both electricity and fuel markets. This paper first identifies a proper SFE model, which can be applied to a multiple-period situation. Then the paper develops the equilibrium condition using discrete time optimal control considering fuel resource constraints. Finally, the paper discusses the issues of multiple equilibria caused by transmission network and shows that a transmission constrained equilibrium may exist, however the shadow price may not be zero. Additionally, an advantage from the proposed model for merchant transmission planning is discussed. (author)

  4. Multi-region optimal deployment of renewable energy considering different interregional transmission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ge; Zhang, Qi; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Li, Hailong

    2016-01-01

    Renewable energy is expected to play much more important role in future low-carbon energy system, however, renewable energy has problems with regard to load-following and regional imbalance. This study aims to plan the deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions considering the impacts of regional natural conditions and generation capacity mix as well as interregional transmission capacity using a multi-region dynamic optimization model. The model was developed to find optimized development paths toward future smart electricity systems with high level penetration of intermittent renewable energy considering regional differences and interregional transmission at national scale. As a case study, the model was applied to plan power generation in nine interconnected regions in Japan out to 2030. Four scenarios were proposed with different supporting policies for the interregional power transmission infrastructures and different nuclear power phase-out scenarios. The analysis results show that (i) the government's support for power transmission infrastructures is vital important to develop more intermittent renewable energy in appropriate regions and utilize renewable energy more efficiently; (ii) nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other if enough interregional transmission capacity is provided. - Highlights: • Plan the optimal deployment of intermittent renewable energy in multiple regions. • A multi-region dynamic optimization model was developed. • The impacts of natural conditions and interregional transmission are studied. • The government's support for transmission is vital important for renewable energy. • Nuclear and renewable can complement rather than replace each other.

  5. Genomics reveals historic and contemporary transmission dynamics of a bacterial disease among wildlife and livestock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Drees, Kevin P.; Luikart, Gordon; Quance, Christine; Anderson, Neil J.; Clarke, P. Ryan; Cole, Eric K.; Drew, Mark L.; Edwards, William H.; Rhyan, Jack C.; Treanor, John J.; Wallen, Rick L.; White, Patrick J.; Robbe-Austerman, Suelee; Cross, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Whole-genome sequencing has provided fundamental insights into infectious disease epidemiology, but has rarely been used for examining transmission dynamics of a bacterial pathogen in wildlife. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), outbreaks of brucellosis have increased in cattle along with rising seroprevalence in elk. Here we use a genomic approach to examine Brucella abortus evolution, cross-species transmission and spatial spread in the GYE. We find that brucellosis was introduced into wildlife in this region at least five times. The diffusion rate varies among Brucella lineages (B3 to 8 km per year) and over time. We also estimate 12 host transitions from bison to elk, and 5 from elk to bison. Our results support the notion that free-ranging elk are currently a self-sustaining brucellosis reservoir and the source of livestock infections, and that control measures in bison are unlikely to affect the dynamics of unrelated strains circulating in nearby elk populations.

  6. Estimation of heterogeneity in malaria transmission by stochastic modelling of apparent deviations from mass action kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith Thomas A

    2008-01-01

    -heterogeneity predict lower incidence of infection at a given average exposure than do those assuming exposure to be uniform. The negative binomial model moreover provides an estimate of the variance of the within-cohort distribution of the EIR and hence of within cohort heterogeneity in exposure. Conclusion Apparent deviations from mass action kinetics in parasite transmission can arise from spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the inoculation rate, and from imprecision in its measurement. For parasites like P. falciparum, where there is no plausible biological rationale for deviations from mass action, this provides a strategy for estimating true levels of heterogeneity, since if mass-action is assumed, the within-population variance in exposure becomes identifiable in cohort studies relating infection to transmission intensity. Statistical analyses relating infection to exposure thus provide a valid general approach for estimating heterogeneity in transmission but only when they incorporate mass action kinetics and shrinkage estimates of exposure. Such analyses make it possible to include realistic levels of heterogeneity in dynamic models that predict the impact of control measures on transmission intensity.

  7. A structural dynamic factor model for the effects of monetary policy estimated by the EM algorithm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse

    This paper applies the maximum likelihood based EM algorithm to a large-dimensional factor analysis of US monetary policy. Specifically, economy-wide effects of shocks to the US federal funds rate are estimated in a structural dynamic factor model in which 100+ US macroeconomic and financial time...... series are driven by the joint dynamics of the federal funds rate and a few correlated dynamic factors. This paper contains a number of methodological contributions to the existing literature on data-rich monetary policy analysis. Firstly, the identification scheme allows for correlated factor dynamics...... as opposed to the orthogonal factors resulting from the popular principal component approach to structural factor models. Correlated factors are economically more sensible and important for a richer monetary policy transmission mechanism. Secondly, I consider both static factor loadings as well as dynamic...

  8. LQR Feedback Control Development for Wind Turbines Featuring a Digital Fluid Power Transmission System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Henrik; Johansen, Per; Andersen, Torben O.

    2016-01-01

    with a DFP motor, which has been combined with the NREL 5-MW reference wind turbine model. A classical variable speed control strategy for wind speeds below rated is proposed for the turbine, where the pump displacement is fixed and the digital motor displacement is varied for pressure control. The digital...... for such digital systems are complicated by its non-smooth behavior. In this paper a control design approach for a digital displacement machine® is proposed and a performance analysis of a wind turbine using a DFP transmission is presented. The performance evaluation is based on a dynamic model of the transmission...... invariant model. Using full-field flow wind profiles as input, the design approach and control performance is verified by simulation in the dynamic model of the wind turbine featuring the DFP transmission. Additionally, the performance is compared to that of the conventional NREL reference turbine...

  9. Predictive modeling of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J.; Krystosik, A.; Mutuku, F.; Ndenga, B.; LaBeaud, D.; Mordecai, E.

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 390 million people are exposed to dengue virus every year, and with no widely available treatments or vaccines, predictive models of disease risk are valuable tools for vector control and disease prevention. The aim of this study was to modify and improve climate-driven predictive models of dengue vector abundance (Aedes spp. mosquitoes) and viral transmission to people in Kenya. We simulated disease transmission using a temperature-driven mechanistic model and compared model predictions with vector trap data for larvae, pupae, and adult mosquitoes collected between 2014 and 2017 at four sites across urban and rural villages in Kenya. We tested predictive capacity of our models using four temperature measurements (minimum, maximum, range, and anomalies) across daily, weekly, and monthly time scales. Our results indicate seasonal temperature variation is a key driving factor of Aedes mosquito abundance and disease transmission. These models can help vector control programs target specific locations and times when vectors are likely to be present, and can be modified for other Aedes-transmitted diseases and arboviral endemic regions around the world.

  10. Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blitvich, Bradley J

    2008-06-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

  11. Dynamics of a split torque helicopter transmission. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krantz, Timothy L.

    1994-01-01

    Split torque designs, proposed as alternatives to traditional planetary designs for helicopter main rotor transmissions, can save weight and be more reliable than traditional designs. This report presents the results of an analytical study of the system dynamics and performance of a split torque gearbox that uses a balance beam mechanism for load sharing. The Lagrange method was applied to develop a system of equations of motion. The mathematical model includes time-varying gear mesh stiffness, friction, and manufacturing errors. Cornell's method for calculating the stiffness of spur gear teeth was extended and applied to helical gears. The phenomenon of sidebands spaced at shaft frequencies about gear mesh fundamental frequencies was simulated by modeling total composite gear errors as sinusoid functions. Although the gearbox has symmetric geometry, the loads and motions of the two power paths differ. Friction must be considered to properly evaluate the balance beam mechanism. For the design studied, the balance beam is not an effective device for load sharing unless the coefficient of friction is less than 0.003. The complete system stiffness as represented by the stiffness matrix used in this analysis must be considered to precisely determine the optimal tooth indexing position.

  12. Bayesian inference in an extended SEIR model with nonparametric disease transmission rate: an application to the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasso, Gianluca; Lambert, Philippe

    2016-10-01

    SummaryThe 2014 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone is analyzed using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) epidemic compartmental model. The discrete time-stochastic model for the epidemic evolution is coupled to a set of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of the expected proportions of subjects in each epidemic state. The unknown parameters are estimated in a Bayesian framework by combining data on the number of new (laboratory confirmed) Ebola cases reported by the Ministry of Health and prior distributions for the transition rates elicited using information collected by the WHO during the follow-up of specific Ebola cases. The time-varying disease transmission rate is modeled in a flexible way using penalized B-splines. Our framework represents a valuable stochastic tool for the study of an epidemic dynamic even when only irregularly observed and possibly aggregated data are available. Simulations and the analysis of the 2014 Sierra Leone Ebola data highlight the merits of the proposed methodology. In particular, the flexible modeling of the disease transmission rate makes the estimation of the effective reproduction number robust to the misspecification of the initial epidemic states and to underreporting of the infectious cases. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Energy transfer modelling of active thermoacoustic engines via Lagrangian thermoacoustic dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Boe-Shong; Chou, Chia-Yu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Resonant control on thermoacoustic engines to amplify power rating. • Least-action principle of thermoacoustic dynamics to shape engine chamber. • Spatiotemporal transfer function into feedback systems. • Conservation law of thermoacoustic storage to figure out engine cycles. • Robin boundary condition to identify flow leakage. - Abstract: This paper develops energy-transfer modelling of active thermoacoustic engines resonantly controlled on boundary for amplification of power rating toward satisfaction of renewable industry. Therein the wave equation of thermoacoustic dynamics in resonators with non-uniform media and boundary actuations is derived and then turned into a least-action principle. With this least-action principle, we obtain the governing equation of longitudinal resonators with spatially variant cross-section areas to investigate how to shape the resonator for boosting piston stroke and power-transmission efficiency. It is followed by spatiotemporal transfer-function modelling that functionally represents the dynamics and interprets the boundary actuations into internal inputs. This helps formulate the overall dynamics into feedback-interconnection between the thermoacoustic dynamics in the resonator and the mechatronic dynamics of the alternative current generator, so that synthesis of feedback systems can be applied to design the entire engine. Transfer-function modelling following least-action principle leads to the conservation law of thermoacoustic storage, which figures out engine cycles, the most fundamental principle in designing active thermoacoustic engines. Based on such feedback realization, digital signal processing is programmed to numerically assess power ratings of active designs

  14. Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis--aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, M A; Reimer, L J; Njenga, S M; Gunawardena, S; Kelly-Hope, L; Bockarie, M; Hollingsworth, T D

    2015-10-22

    With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios. We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control. In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions. Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be

  15. A dynamic model of gas flow in a non-uniform pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mensah, S.; Lepp, R.M.

    1979-08-01

    A gas-line model, based on the analysis of compressible flow with friction, has been developed to describe the dynamics of gas flow in a non-uniform line, i.e. one comprising segments of different lengths and diameters. Acoustic wave analysis was used in a novel way, by considering the line as a cascaded connection of uniform pipes separated by discontinuities. The transmission matrix representing this non-uniform line is the product of the matrices for each element in the system. To facilitate implementation of the theoretical model on a hybrid computer, modal approximatons to its transfer functions were derived. Both models were validated against experimental data. (author)

  16. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  17. Dynamic Coordinated Shifting Control of Automated Mechanical Transmissions without a Clutch in a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinlei Liu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the shifting process of automated mechanical transmissions (AMTs for traditional hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs, and by combining the features of electric machines with fast response speed, the dynamic model of the hybrid electric AMT vehicle powertrain is built up, the dynamic characteristics of each phase of shifting process are analyzed, and a control strategy in which torque and speed of the engine and electric machine are coordinatively controlled to achieve AMT shifting control for a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV without clutch is proposed. In the shifting process, the engine and electric machine are well controlled, and the shift jerk and power interruption and restoration time are reduced. Simulation and real car test results show that the proposed control strategy can more efficiently improve the shift quality for PHEVs equipped with AMTs.

  18. Dynamics of annular bright field imaging in scanning transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Findlay, S.D.; Shibata, N.; Sawada, H.; Okunishi, E.; Kondo, Y.; Ikuhara, Y.

    2010-01-01

    We explore the dynamics of image formation in the so-called annular bright field mode in scanning transmission electron microscopy, whereby an annular detector is used with detector collection range lying within the cone of illumination, i.e. the bright field region. We show that this imaging mode allows us to reliably image both light and heavy columns over a range of thickness and defocus values, and we explain the contrast mechanisms involved. The role of probe and detector aperture sizes is considered, as is the sensitivity of the method to intercolumn spacing and local disorder.

  19. The Potential Cost Effectiveness of Different Dengue Vaccination Programmes in Malaysia: A Value-Based Pricing Assessment Using Dynamic Transmission Mathematical Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafie, Asrul Akmal; Yeo, Hui Yee; Coudeville, Laurent; Steinberg, Lucas; Gill, Balvinder Singh; Jahis, Rohani; Amar-Singh Hss

    2017-05-01

    Dengue disease poses a great economic burden in Malaysia. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness and impact of dengue vaccination in Malaysia from both provider and societal perspectives using a dynamic transmission mathematical model. The model incorporated sensitivity analyses, Malaysia-specific data, evidence from recent phase III studies and pooled efficacy and long-term safety data to refine the estimates from previous published studies. Unit costs were valued in $US, year 2013 values. Six vaccination programmes employing a three-dose schedule were identified as the most likely programmes to be implemented. In all programmes, vaccination produced positive benefits expressed as reductions in dengue cases, dengue-related deaths, life-years lost, disability-adjusted life-years and dengue treatment costs. Instead of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), we evaluated the cost effectiveness of the programmes by calculating the threshold prices for a highly cost-effective strategy [ICER price of $US32.39 for programme 6 (highly cost effective up to $US14.15) and up to a price of $US100.59 for programme 1 (highly cost effective up to $US47.96) from the provider perspective. The cost-effectiveness analysis is sensitive to under-reporting, vaccine protection duration and model time horizon. Routine vaccination for a population aged 13 years with a catch-up cohort aged 14-30 years in targeted hotspot areas appears to be the best-value strategy among those investigated. Dengue vaccination is a potentially good investment if the purchaser can negotiate a price at or below the cost-effective threshold price.

  20. Evolution of a beam dynamics model for the transport line in a proton therapy facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzoglio, V.; Adelmann, A.; Baumgarten, C.; Frey, M.; Gerbershagen, A.; Meer, D.; Schippers, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    During the conceptual design of an accelerator or beamline, first-order beam dynamics models are essential for studying beam properties. However, they can only produce approximate results. During commissioning, these approximate results are compared to measurements, which will rarely coincide if the model does not include the relevant physics. It is therefore essential that this linear model is extended to include higher-order effects. In this paper, the effects of particle-matter interaction have been included in the model of the transport lines in the proton therapy facility at the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI) in Switzerland. The first-order models of these beamlines provide an approximated estimation of beam size, energy loss and transmission. To improve the performance of the facility, a more precise model was required and has been developed with opal (Object Oriented Parallel Accelerator Library), a multiparticle open source beam dynamics code. In opal, the Monte Carlo simulations of Coulomb scattering and energy loss are performed seamless with the particle tracking. Beside the linear optics, the influence of the passive elements (e.g., degrader, collimators, scattering foils, and air gaps) on the beam emittance and energy spread can be analyzed in the new model. This allows for a significantly improved precision in the prediction of beam transmission and beam properties. The accuracy of the opal model has been confirmed by numerous measurements.

  1. Theoretical vibro-acoustic modeling of acoustic noise transmission through aircraft windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloufi, Badr; Behdinan, Kamran; Zu, Jean

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a fully vibro-acoustic model for sound transmission across a multi-pane aircraft window is developed. The proposed model is efficiently applied for a set of window models to perform extensive theoretical parametric studies. The studied window configurations generally simulate the passenger window designs of modern aircraft classes which have an exterior multi-Plexiglas pane, an interior single acrylic glass pane and a dimmable glass ("smart" glass), all separated by thin air cavities. The sound transmission loss (STL) characteristics of three different models, triple-, quadruple- and quintuple-paned windows identical in size and surface density, are analyzed for improving the acoustic insulation performances. Typical results describing the influence of several system parameters, such as the thicknesses, number and spacing of the window panes, on the transmission loss are then investigated. In addition, a comparison study is carried out to evaluate the acoustic reduction capability of each window model. The STL results show that the higher frequencies sound transmission loss performance can be improved by increasing the number of window panels, however, the low frequency performance is decreased, particularly at the mass-spring resonances.

  2. Mathematical model of transmission network static state estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Aleksandar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the characteristics and capabilities of the power transmission network static state estimator are presented. The solving process of the mathematical model containing the measurement errors and their processing is developed. To evaluate difference between the general model of state estimation and the fast decoupled state estimation model, the both models are applied to an example, and so derived results are compared.

  3. A Comparison of Reduced Order Modeling Techniques Used in Dynamic Substructuring [PowerPoint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roettgen, Dan [Wisc; Seeger, Benjamin [Stuttgart; Tai, Wei Che [Washington; Baek, Seunghun [Michigan; Dossogne, Tilan [Liege; Allen, Matthew S [Wisc; Kuether, Robert J.; Brake, Matthew Robert; Mayes, Randall L.

    2016-01-01

    Experimental dynamic substructuring is a means whereby a mathematical model for a substructure can be obtained experimentally and then coupled to a model for the rest of the assembly to predict the response. Recently, various methods have been proposed that use a transmission simulator to overcome sensitivity to measurement errors and to exercise the interface between the substructures; including the Craig-Bampton, Dual Craig-Bampton, and Craig-Mayes methods. This work compares the advantages and disadvantages of these reduced order modeling strategies for two dynamic substructuring problems. The methods are first used on an analytical beam model to validate the methodologies. Then they are used to obtain an experimental model for structure consisting of a cylinder with several components inside connected to the outside case by foam with uncertain properties. This represents an exceedingly difficult structure to model and so experimental substructuring could be an attractive way to obtain a model of the system.

  4. A controlled human malaria infection model enabling evaluation of transmission-blocking interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collins, K.A.; Wang, C.Y.; Adams, M.; Mitchell, H.; Rampton, M.; Elliott, S.; Reuling, I.J.; Bousema, T.; Sauerwein, R.; Chalon, S.; Mohrle, J.J.; McCarthy, J.S.

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Drugs and vaccines that can interrupt the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum will be important for malaria control and elimination. However, models for early clinical evaluation of candidate transmission-blocking interventions are currently unavailable. Here, we describe a new model

  5. Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schley, David; Whittle, Sophie; Taylor, Michael; Kiss, Istvan Zoltan

    2012-09-15

    Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution. Individual based network models are considered together with one- and two-class compartmental models, for which the final epidemic size is calculated as a function of the probability of disease transmission occurring during a given physical contact between two individuals. For numerical results the special cases of a viral disease with a fast recovery rate (foot-and-mouth disease) and a bacterial disease with a slow recovery rate (brucellosis) amongst sheep are considered. Quantitative results from observational studies of physical contact amongst domestic sheep are applied and results from the differently structured flocks (ewes with newborn lambs, ewes with nearly weaned lambs and ewes only) compared. These indicate that the breeding cycle leads to significant changes in the expected basic reproduction ratio of diseases. The observed heterogeneity of contacts amongst animals is best captured by full network simulations, although simple compartmental models describe the key features of an outbreak but, as expected, often overestimate the speed of an outbreak. Here the weights of contacts are heterogeneous, with many low weight links. However, due to the well-connected nature of the networks, this has little effect and differences between models remain small. These results indicate that simple compartmental models can be a useful tool for modelling real-world flocks; their applicability will be greater still for more homogeneously mixed livestock, which could be promoted by higher intensity farming practices. Copyright © 2012

  6. The fusion rate in the transmission resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaendel, M.

    1992-01-01

    Resonant transmission of deuterons through a chain of target deuterons in a metal matrix has been suggested as an explanation for the cold fusion phenomena. In this paper the fusion rate in such transmission resonance models is estimated, and the basic physical constraints are discussed. The dominating contribution to the fusion yield is found to come from metastable states. The fusion rate is well described by the Wentzel-Kramer-Brillouin approximation and appears to be much too small to explain the experimental anomalies

  7. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  8. A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Sumner, T.; Enøe, Claes

    2016-01-01

    In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptio...... sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster....

  9. An individual-based model of transmission of resistant bacteria in a veterinary teaching hospital.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeraj Suthar

    Full Text Available Veterinary nosocomial infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria cause increased morbidity, higher cost and length of treatment and increased zoonotic risk because of the difficulty in treating them. In this study, an individual-based model was developed to investigate the effects of movements of canine patients among ten areas (transmission points within a veterinary teaching hospital, and the effects of these movements on transmission of antibiotic susceptible and resistant pathogens. The model simulates contamination of transmission points, healthcare workers, and patients as well as the effects of decontamination of transmission points, disinfection of healthcare workers, and antibiotic treatments of canine patients. The model was parameterized using data obtained from hospital records, information obtained by interviews with hospital staff, and the published literature. The model suggested that transmission resulting from contact with healthcare workers was common, and that certain transmission points (housing wards, diagnostics room, and the intensive care unit presented higher risk for transmission than others (lobby and surgery. Sensitivity analyses using a range of parameter values demonstrated that the risk of acquisition of colonization by resistant pathogens decreased with shorter patient hospital stays (P<0.0001, more frequent decontamination of transmission points and disinfection of healthcare workers (P<0.0001 and better compliance of healthcare workers with hygiene practices (P<0.0001. More frequent decontamination of heavily trafficked transmission points was especially effective at reducing transmission of the model pathogen.

  10. Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berginc Nataša

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A cross-sectional, age-stratified study was conducted to determine varicella-zoster seroprevalence and force of infection in Slovenia. Methods 3689 serum samples were tested for VZV IgG antibodies with an enzyme immunoassay. Semiparametric and parametric modelling were used to estimate the force of infection. Results Overall, 85.6% of serum samples were seropositive. Age-specific prevalence rose rapidly in preschool children and over 90% of 8 years old tested positive for VZV. However, 2.8% of serum samples among women of childbearing age were seronegative. Semiparametric modelling yielded force of infection estimates of 0.182 (95% CI 0.158-0.206, 0.367 (95% CI 0.285-0.448 and 0.008 (95% CI 0.0-0.032 for age groups 0.5- Conclusions Regardless of the age grouping used, the highest transmission occurred in children in their first years of school.

  11. Dynamic simulation of perturbation responses in a closed-loop virtual arm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yu-Fan; He, Xin; Lan, Ning

    2010-01-01

    A closed-loop virtual arm (VA) model has been developed in SIMULINK environment by adding spinal reflex circuits and propriospinal neural networks to the open-loop VA model developed in early study [1]. An improved virtual muscle model (VM4.0) is used to speed up simulation and to generate more precise recruitment of muscle force at low levels of muscle activation. Time delays in the reflex loops are determined by their synaptic connections and afferent transmission back to the spinal cord. Reflex gains are properly selected so that closed-loop responses are stable. With the closed-loop VA model, we are developing an approach to evaluate system behaviors by dynamic simulation of perturbation responses. Joint stiffness is calculated based on simulated perturbation responses by a least-squares algorithm in MATLAB. This method of dynamic simulation will be essential for further evaluation of feedforward and reflex control of arm movement and position.

  12. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel [Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, 61300, Brno (Czech Republic); Bednářová, Petra [Institute of Technology and Business, Okružní 517/10, 370 01, České Budějovice (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

  13. Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel; Bednářová, Petra

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches

  14. Does interspecific competition have a moderating effect on Taenia solium transmission dynamics in Southeast Asia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlan, James V; Vongxay, Khamphouth; Fenwick, Stanley; Blacksell, Stuart D; Thompson, R C Andrew

    2009-09-01

    It is well understood that sociocultural practices strongly influence Taenia solium transmission; however, the extent to which interspecific parasite competition moderates Taenia transmission has yet to be determined. This is certainly the case in Southeast Asia where T. solium faces competition in both the definitive host (people) and the intermediate host (pigs). In people, adult worms of T. solium, T. saginata and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent crowding mechanisms. In pigs, metacestodes of T. solium, T. hydatigena and T. asiatica compete through density-dependent immune-mediated interactions. Here, we describe the biological and epidemiological implications of Taenia competition and propose that interspecific competition has a moderating effect on the transmission dynamics of T. solium in the region. Furthermore, we argue that this competitive ecological scenario should be considered in future research and surveillance activities examining T. solium cysticercosis and taeniasis in Southeast Asia.

  15. Development of a model for integrated simulation of the European transmission networks and electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathke, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The liberalisation of electricity markets and the increase of renewable energy generation actually causes dramatic changes for the whole European power industry. The transmission system operators in particular have to meet the challenge to ensure a stable and reliable system operation in the future. Significant changes in power generation will require a substantial extension to current inadequate original transmission grids to handle increased wide area power flows. This is the only way to avoid overloading the grid and to reduce the herefrom resulting limitations for the Pan-European cross-border trade of electricity. This work describes in detail the development of a Pan-European integrated grid and an electricity market simulation tool. For this purpose an overview about the today's structure of the European electricity industry is given initially. Afterwards the configuration of the transmission grid, the used equipment and different methods for the load flow and short circuit calculation are explained. Furthermore models for the calculation of local loads and the power plant dispatch are presented in the following chapters. Following on from this a detailed model of the European electricity industry is developed and the main functions are described by means of some exemplary simulations. The simulation tool developed in this work enables the user to calculate realistic power plant schedules and the consequent resulting physical effects on the European transmission grid. It combines a time series based simulation of the electricity market with a detailed model of the transmission grid. The highly detailing of the model offers the feasibility to execute a complete AC load flow calculation using the Newton Raphson algorithm.Therefore it is possible to identify the active as well as the reactive power flows in the grid. The results of the power flow calculation are the basis for further investigations (e. g. the short circuit calculation) and to decide on

  16. Transmission dynamics and prospects for the elimination of canine rabies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katie Hampson

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (approximately 1.2 and throughout its historic global range (<2. This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.

  17. Performance Analysis of Control Signal Transmission Technique for Cognitive Radios in Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakata, Ren; Tomioka, Tazuko; Kobayashi, Takahiro

    When cognitive radio (CR) systems dynamically use the frequency band, a control signal is necessary to indicate which carrier frequencies are currently available in the network. In order to keep efficient spectrum utilization, this control signal also should be transmitted based on the channel conditions. If transmitters dynamically select carrier frequencies, receivers have to receive control signals without knowledge of their carrier frequencies. To enable such transmission and reception, this paper proposes a novel scheme called DCPT (Differential Code Parallel Transmission). With DCPT, receivers can receive low-rate information with no knowledge of the carrier frequencies. The transmitter transmits two signals whose carrier frequencies are spaced by a predefined value. The absolute values of the carrier frequencies can be varied. When the receiver acquires the DCPT signal, it multiplies the signal by a frequency-shifted version of the signal; this yields a DC component that represents the data signal which is then demodulated. The performance was evaluated by means of numerical analysis and computer simulation. We confirmed that DCPT operates successfully even under severe interference if its parameters are appropriately configured.

  18. Dynamic modeling of cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination, Kazakhstan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freiesleben de Blasio, Birgitte; Flem, Elmira; Latipov, Renat; Kuatbaeva, Ajnagul; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

    2014-01-01

    The government of Kazakhstan, a middle-income country in Central Asia, is considering the introduction of rotavirus vaccination into its national immunization program. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination spanning 20 years by using a synthesis of dynamic transmission models accounting for herd protection. We found that a vaccination program with 90% coverage would prevent ≈880 rotavirus deaths and save an average of 54,784 life-years for children vaccine cost at vaccination program costs would be entirely offset. To further evaluate efficacy of a vaccine program, benefits of indirect protection conferred by vaccination warrant further study.

  19. Modeling the effect of comprehensive interventions on Ebola virus transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin

    2015-10-01

    Since the re-emergence of Ebola in West Africa in 2014, comprehensive and stringent interventions have been implemented to decelerate the spread of the disease. The effectiveness of interventions still remains unclear. In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model that includes various controlling measures to systematically evaluate their effects on the disease transmission dynamics. By fitting the model to reported cumulative cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia until March 22, 2015, we estimate the basic reproduction number in these countries as 1.2552, 1.6093 and 1.7994, respectively. Model analysis shows that there exists a threshold of the effectiveness of isolation, below which increasing the fraction of latent individuals diagnosed prior to symptoms onset or shortening the duration between symptoms onset and isolation may lead to more Ebola infection. This challenges an existing view. Media coverage plays a substantial role in reducing the final epidemic size. The response to reported cumulative infected cases and deaths may have a different effect on the epidemic spread in different countries. Among all the interventions, we find that shortening the duration between death and burial and improving the effectiveness of isolation are two effective interventions for controlling the outbreak of Ebola virus infection.

  20. Hidden Markov Model of atomic quantum jump dynamics in an optically probed cavity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gammelmark, S.; Molmer, K.; Alt, W.

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the quantum jumps of an atom interacting with a cavity field. The strong atom- field interaction makes the cavity transmission depend on the time dependent atomic state, and we present a Hidden Markov Model description of the atomic state dynamics which is conditioned in a Bayesian...... manner on the detected signal. We suggest that small variations in the observed signal may be due to spatial motion of the atom within the cavity, and we represent the atomic system by a number of hidden states to account for both the small variations and the internal state jump dynamics. In our theory...

  1. Altered vector competence in an experimental mosquito-mouse transmission model of Zika infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuta Uraki

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Few animal models of Zika virus (ZIKV infection have incorporated arthropod-borne transmission. Here, we establish an Aedes aegypti mosquito model of ZIKV infection of mice, and demonstrate altered vector competency among three strains, (Orlando, ORL, Ho Chi Minh, HCM, and Patilas, PAT. All strains acquired ZIKV in their midguts after a blood meal from infected mice, but ZIKV transmission only occurred in mice fed upon by HCM, and to a lesser extent PAT, but not ORL, mosquitoes. This defect in transmission from ORL or PAT mosquitoes was overcome by intrathoracic injection of ZIKV into mosquito. Genetic analysis revealed significant diversity among these strains, suggesting a genetic basis for differences in ability for mosquito strains to transmit ZIKV. The intrathoracic injection mosquito-mouse transmission model is critical to understanding the influence of mosquitoes on ZIKV transmission, infectivity and pathogenesis in the vertebrate host, and represents a natural transmission route for testing vaccines and therapeutics.

  2. Estimated health and economic impact of quadrivalent HPV (types 6/11/16/18 vaccination in Brazil using a transmission dynamic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kawai Kosuke

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Brazil. We examined the health and economic impacts of quadrivalent HPV vaccination in Brazil. Methods We adapted a previously developed transmission dynamic model to estimate the effectiveness of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2/3, CIN1, and genital warts. We evaluated following vaccination strategies: routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls and routine vaccination in combination with a catch-up vaccination of 12 to 26-year-old women. Results The model projected that the vaccination would reduce the incidence rates of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancer, CIN2/3, CIN1, and female genital warts by 94% to 98% at year 100. Routine vaccination in combination with a catch-up vaccination could prevent approximately 163,000 cases of cervical cancer, 48,000 deaths from cervical cancer, 2.3 million cases of CIN2/3, and 11.4 million genital warts in the next 50 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for female vaccination strategies ranged from R$350 to R$720 (US$219 to US$450 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY gained. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that quadrivalent HPV female vaccination can be a cost-effective public health intervention that can substantially reduce the burden of cervical diseases and genital warts in Brazil.

  3. Grounding modelling for transient overvoltage simulation in electric power transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno O, German; Valencia V, Jaime A; Villada, Fernando

    1992-01-01

    Grounding plays an important role in transmission line outages and consequently on electric energy transmission quality indexes. Fundamentals of an accurate modelling for transient behaviour analysis, particularly for the response of transmission lines to lightning, are presented. Also, a method to take into account the electromagnetic propagation guided by the grounding electrodes and finally to assess the grounding impedance in order to simulate the transmission line behaviour under lightning is presented. Analysis of impedance behaviour for diverse configurations and simulation results of over voltages on a real 220 kV line are presented to illustrate the capabilities of the method and of the computational program developed

  4. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. Subsequent chapters of this report provide: an overview of NGTDM; a description of the interface between the NEMS and NGTDM; an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM; the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module; the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module; the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module; the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module; and a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs.

  5. Threshold Dynamics in Stochastic SIRS Epidemic Models with Nonlinear Incidence and Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamical behaviors for a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and vaccination are investigated. In the models, the disease transmission coefficient and the removal rates are all affected by noise. Some new basic properties of the models are found. Applying these properties, we establish a series of new threshold conditions on the stochastically exponential extinction, stochastic persistence, and permanence in the mean of the disease with probability one for the models. Furthermore, we obtain a sufficient condition on the existence of unique stationary distribution for the model. Finally, a series of numerical examples are introduced to illustrate our main theoretical results and some conjectures are further proposed.

  6. The role of adaptations in two-strain competition for sylvatic Trypanosoma cruzi transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kribs-Zaleta, Christopher M; Mubayi, Anuj

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a continuous-time model for the sylvatic transmission dynamics of two strains of Trypanosoma cruzi enzootic in North America, in order to study the role that adaptations of each strain to distinct modes of transmission (classical stercorarian transmission on the one hand, and vertical and oral transmission on the other) may play in the competition between the two strains. A deterministic model incorporating contact process saturation predicts competitive exclusion, and reproductive numbers for the infection provide a framework for evaluating the competition in terms of adaptive trade-off between distinct transmission modes. Results highlight the importance of oral transmission in mediating the competition between horizontal (stercorarian) and vertical transmission; its presence as a competing contact process advantages vertical transmission even without adaptation to oral transmission, but such adaptation appears necessary to explain the persistence of (vertically-adapted) T. cruzi IV in raccoons and woodrats in the southeastern United States.

  7. Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

    2000-05-01

    We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only

  8. Matrix of transmission in structural dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, S.

    1975-01-01

    The problem of close-coupled systems and cantilever type buildings can be treated efficiently by means of the very general and versatile method of transmission matrix. The expression 'matrix of transmission' is used to point out the fact that the method to be described differs fundamentally from another method related to matrix calculus, and also successfully used in vibration problem. In this method, forces and displacements are introduced as the 'unknowns' of the problem. The 'matrix of transmission' relates these quantities at one point of the structure to those at the neighbouring point. The natural frequencies of a freely vibrating elastic system can be found by applying proper end conditions. The end conditions will yield the frequency determinate to zero. By using suitable numerical method, the natural frequencies and mode shapes are determined, by making a frequency sweep within the range of interest. Results of analysis of a typical nuclear building by this method show very close agreement with the results obtained by using ASKA and SAP IV Program

  9. Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Christiansen-Jucht

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a “standard” model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors.

  10. Dynamics of host-reservoir transmission of Ebola with spillover potential to humans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berge Tsanou

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Ebola virus disease (EVD is a zoonotic borne disease (i.e. disease that is spread from animals to people. Therefore human beings can be infected through direct contact with an infected animal (fruit-eating bat or great ape. It has been demonstrated that fruit-eating bats of pteropodidae family are potential reservoir of EVD. Moreover, it has been biologically shown that fruit-eating bats do not die due to EVD and bear the Ebola viruses lifelong. We develop in this paper, a mathematical model to assess the impact of the reservoir on the dynamics of EVD. Our model couples a bat-to-bat model with a human-to-human model and the indirect environmental contamination through a spillover process (i.e. process by which a zoonotic pathogen moves (regardless of transmission mode from an animal host (or environmental reservoir to a human host from bats to humans. The sub-models and the coupled models exhibit each a threshold behavior with the corresponding basic reproduction numbers being the bifurcation parameters. Existence of equilibria, their global stability are established by combining monotone operator theory, Lyapunov-LaSalle techniques and graph theory. Control strategies are assessed by using the target reproduction numbers. The efforts required to control EVD are assessed as well through S-control. The spillover event is shown to be highly detrimental to EVD by allowing the disease to switch from bats to humans even though the disease was not initially endemic in the human population. Precisely, we show that the spillover phenomenon contributes to speed up the disease outbreak. This suggests that the manipulation and consumption of fruit-bats play an important role in sustaining EVD in a given environment.

  11. Some Advances in the Circuit Modeling of Extraordinary Optical Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Medina

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of extraordinary optical transmission (EOT through electrically small holes perforated on opaque metal screens has been a hot topic in the optics community for more than one decade. This experimentally observed frequency-selective enhanced transmission of electromagnetic power through holes, for which classical Bethe's theory predicts very poor transmission, later attracted the attention of engineers working on microwave engineering or applied electromagnetics. Extraordinary transmission was first linked to the plasma-like behavior of metals at optical frequencies. However, the primary role played by the periodicity of the distribution of holes was soon made evident, in such a way that extraordinary transmission was disconnected from the particular behavior of metals at optical frequencies. Indeed, the same phenomenon has been observed in the microwave and millimeter wave regime, for instance. Nowadays, the most commonly accepted theory explains EOT in terms of the interaction of the impinging plane wave with the surface plasmon-polariton-Bloch waves (SPP-Bloch supported by the periodically perforated plate. The authors of this paper have recently proposed an alternative model whose details will be briefly summarized here. A parametric study of the predictions of the model and some new potential extensions will be reported to provide additional insight.

  12. Transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum in the lakes and marshlands of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren J Gray

    Full Text Available Schistosoma japonicum is a major public health concern in China, with over one million people infected and another 40 million living in areas at risk of infection. Unlike the disease caused by S. mansoni and S. haematobium, schistosomiasis japonica is a zoonosis, involving a number of different mammalian species as reservoir hosts. As a result of a number of published reports from China, it has long been considered that bovines, particularly water buffaloes, play a major role in human S. japonicum transmission there, and a drug-based intervention study (1998-2003 around the Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province provided proof of concept that water buffaloes are, indeed, major reservoirs of human infection in this setting.In this study we incorporated recently obtained epidemiological information to model the steady-state S. japonicum transmission as well as the impact of the removal of S. japonicum transmission attributable to water buffaloes on human infection rates across six different endemic scenarios within three villages in the Dongting (Hunan and Poyang (Jiangxi lakes of southern China. Similar results were obtained for all scenarios. Steady-state S. japonicum infection rates remained constant and human prevalence and incidence were predicted to fall considerably over time. The model showed that the contribution of S. japonicum water buffalo transmission to human infection ranged from 39.1% to 99.1% and predicted that the removal of water buffalo transmission would reduce parasite reproductive rates below 1. This indicates that without the contribution of water buffaloes, S. japonicum transmission is interrupted and unsustainable. These scenarios are generalizable to other endemic villages in the lake and marshland areas of China where a similar cycle of snail infection and infection/reinfection of humans and bovines occurs.Along with previous epidemiological data, our findings strongly support water buffaloes as an important component of the

  13. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  14. Designing and Evaluating Interventions to Halt the Transmission of Tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, David W; Grant, Alison D; Dheda, Keertan; Nardell, Edward; Fielding, Katherine; Moore, David A J

    2017-11-03

    To reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, it is insufficient to simply understand the dynamics of tuberculosis transmission. Rather, we must design and rigorously evaluate interventions to halt transmission, prioritizing those interventions most likely to achieve population-level impact. Synergy in reducing tuberculosis transmission may be attainable by combining interventions that shrink the reservoir of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (preventive therapy), shorten the time between disease onset and treatment initiation (case finding and diagnosis), and prevent transmission in key settings, such as the built environment (infection control). In evaluating efficacy and estimating population-level impact, cluster-randomized trials and mechanistic models play particularly prominent roles. Historical and contemporary evidence suggests that effective public health interventions can halt tuberculosis transmission, but an evidence-based approach based on knowledge of local epidemiology is necessary for success. We provide a roadmap for designing, evaluating, and modeling interventions to interrupt the process of transmission that fuels a diverse array of tuberculosis epidemics worldwide. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  15. A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Max S Y Lau

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015. Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

  16. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zivzivadze, O.; Zivzivadze, L.

    2009-01-01

    Difficulties associated with the development of calculation models are analyzed, and the ways of resolution of these problems are given. A version of the equivalent circuit as a six-pole network, the parameters of which do not depend on the angle of shift Θ between the voltage vectors of circuits is offered. The interrelation between the parameters of the equivalent circuit and the transmission constants of the line was determined. A universal calculation model for the controlled electric transmission line was elaborated. The model allows calculating the stationary modes of lines of such classes at any angle of shift Θ between the circuits. (author)

  17. Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales: Model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward M. Hill

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for

  18. Dynamic modeling and characteristics analysis of a modal-independent linear ultrasonic motor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Yao, Zhiyuan; Zhou, Shengli; Lv, Qibao; Liu, Zhen

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, an integrated model is developed to analyze the fundamental characteristics of a modal-independent linear ultrasonic motor with double piezoelectric vibrators. The energy method is used to model the dynamics of the two piezoelectric vibrators. The interface forces are coupled into the dynamic equations of the two vibrators and the moving platform, forming a whole machine model of the motor. The behavior of the force transmission of the motor is analyzed via the resulting model to understand the drive mechanism. In particular, the relative contact length is proposed to describe the intermittent contact characteristic between the stator and the mover, and its role in evaluating motor performance is discussed. The relations between the output speed and various inputs to the motor and the start-stop transients of the motor are analyzed by numerical simulations, which are validated by experiments. Furthermore, the dead-zone behavior is predicted and clarified analytically using the proposed model, which is also observed in experiments. These results are useful for designing servo control scheme for the motor. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. SimWIND: A geospatial infrastructure model for optimizing wind power generation and transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, Benjamin R.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2012-01-01

    Wind is a clean, enduring energy resource with the capacity to satisfy 20% or more of U.S. electricity demand. Presently, wind potential is limited by a paucity of electrical transmission lines and/or capacity between promising wind resources and primary load centers. We present the model SimWIND to address this shortfall. SimWIND is an integrated optimization model for the geospatial arrangement and cost minimization of wind-power generation–transmission–delivery infrastructure. Given a set of possible wind-farm sites, the model simultaneously determines (1) where and how much power to generate and (2) where to build new transmission infrastructure and with what capacity in order to minimize the cost for delivering a targeted amount of power to load. Costs and routing of transmission lines consider geographic and social constraints as well as electricity losses. We apply our model to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Interconnection, considering scenarios that deliver up to 20 GW of new wind power. We show that SimWIND could potentially reduce ERCOT's projected ∼$5B transmission network upgrade line length and associated costs by 50%. These results suggest that SimWIND's coupled generation–transmission–delivery modeling approach could play a critical role in enhancing planning efforts and reducing costs for wind energy integration. - Highlights: ► Wind power is limited by transmission capacity between resources and demands. ► SimWIND is a coupled generation-transmission-delivery model for wind infrastructure. ► The model minimizes costs considering realistic transmission routing and networking. ► We show that SimWIND could save 50% of $5B costs for expanding the Texas grid. ► Results suggest SimWIND may play a critical role in enhancings wind planning efforts.

  20. Zika virus transmission dynamic model and its optimal control%Zika病毒传播动力学模型及其最优控制

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    丁春晓; 朱元国

    2016-01-01

    In order to investigate the transimission law of Zika virus, we construct a Zika virus transmission dynamics model with Logistic growth rate. The existence of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium of the model are proved. The basic reproduction number is calculated to demonstrate the threshold of the disease outbreak. Based on the model,we present the corresponding optimal control problem,propose the necessary condition for the existence of the solution,and obtain the optimal solution. Finally, numerical simulations of different control strategies give the effectiveness of the model and the rationality of control strategies.%为了探究Zika病毒传播规律,创建了具有Logistic增长率的Zika病毒传播动力学模型。证明了模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性,计算了疾病爆发阈值———基本再生数。随后,提出了基于模型的最优控制问题,给出了最优解存在的必要条件并求得了最优解。最后通过数值仿真例子,对比不同控制策略,证明了模型的有效性和控制策略的合理性。

  1. An investigation of the structural dynamic behaviour of a vehicle transmission by means of multibody simulation; Untersuchung des strukturdynamischen und akustischen Verhaltens eines Fahrzeuggetriebes mit MKS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gross, Volker [ZF Friedrichshafen AG, Friedrichshafen (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    The legal regulations and the customers' requirements as regards vehicle comfort are growing more and more stringent. This also includes the transmission systems, as they are expected not so show any obvious acoustic or dynamic weaknesses. Modern simulation methods permit evaluation and optimization of structure-borne and airborne noise in the early stage of development. Especially the FE method is a well-established technique for the simulation of structure-borne sound. With regard to complex transmissions, multibody simulations (MBS) can provide valuable insights for a realistic evaluation of the dynamic behaviour of a transmission. This is demonstrated using a truck transmission as an example. (orig.)

  2. Side-coupled cavity model for surface plasmon-polariton transmission across a groove

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J.S.Q.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate that the transmission properties of surface plasmon-polaritons (SPPs) across a rectangular groove in a metallic film can be described by an analytical model that treats the groove as a side-coupled cavity to propagating SPPs on the metal surface. The coupling efficiency to the groove is quantified by treating it as a truncated metal-dielectric-metal (MDM) waveguide. Finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) simulations and mode orthogonality relations are employed to derive the basic scattering coefficients that describe the interaction between the relevant modes in the system. The modeled SPP transmission and reflection intensities show excellent agreement with full-field simulations over a wide range of groove dimensions, validating this intuitive model. The model predicts the sharp transmission minima that occur whenever an incident SPP resonantly couples to the groove. We also for the first time show the importance of evanescent, reactive MDM SPP modes to the transmission behavior. SPPs that couple to this mode are resonantly enhanced upon reflection from the bottom of the groove, leading to high field intensities and sharp transmission minima across the groove. The resonant behavior exhibited by the grooves has a number of important device applications, including SPP mirrors, filters, and modulators.

  3. Vibration Propagation of Gear Dynamics in a Gear-Bearing-Housing System Using Mathematical Modeling and Finite Element Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Robert G.; Guo, Yi; Eritenel, Tugan; Ericson, Tristan M.

    2012-01-01

    Vibration and noise caused by gear dynamics at the meshing teeth propagate through power transmission components to the surrounding environment. This study is devoted to developing computational tools to investigate the vibro-acoustic propagation of gear dynamics through a gearbox using different bearings. Detailed finite element/contact mechanics and boundary element models of the gear/bearing/housing system are established to compute the system vibration and noise propagation. Both vibration and acoustic models are validated by experiments including the vibration modal testing and sound field measurements. The effectiveness of each bearing type to disrupt vibration propagation is speed-dependent. Housing plays an important role in noise radiation .It, however, has limited effects on gear dynamics. Bearings are critical components in drivetrains. Accurate modeling of rolling element bearings is essential to assess vibration and noise of drivetrain systems. This study also seeks to fully describe the vibro-acoustic propagation of gear dynamics through a power-transmission system using rolling element and fluid film wave bearings. Fluid film wave bearings, which have higher damping than rolling element bearings, could offer an energy dissipation mechanism that reduces the gearbox noise. The effectiveness of each bearing type to disrupt vibration propagation in explored using multi-body computational models. These models include gears, shafts, rolling element and fluid film wave bearings, and the housing. Radiated noise is mapped from the gearbox surface to surrounding environment. The effectiveness of rolling element and fluid film wave bearings in breaking the vibro-acoustic propagation path from the gear to the housing is investigated.

  4. Molecular modeling of the conformational dynamics of the cellular prion protein

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Charles; Colling, Ian; Bartz, Jason; Soto, Patricia

    2014-03-01

    Prions are infectious agents responsible for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), a type of fatal neurodegenerative disease in mammals. Prions propagate biological information by conversion of the non-pathological version of the prion protein to the infectious conformation, PrPSc. A wealth of knowledge has shed light on the nature and mechanism of prion protein conversion. In spite of the significance of this problem, we are far from fully understanding the conformational dynamics of the cellular isoform. To remedy this situation we employ multiple biomolecular modeling techniques such as docking and molecular dynamics simulations to map the free energy landscape and determine what specific regions of the prion protein are most conductive to binding. The overall goal is to characterize the conformational dynamics of the cell form of the prion protein, PrPc, to gain insight into inhibition pathways against misfolding. NE EPSCoR FIRST Award to Patricia Soto.

  5. Sound transmission through lightweight double-leaf partitions: theoretical modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Lu, T. J.; Woodhouse, J.; Langley, R. S.; Evans, J.

    2005-09-01

    This paper presents theoretical modelling of the sound transmission loss through double-leaf lightweight partitions stiffened with periodically placed studs. First, by assuming that the effect of the studs can be replaced with elastic springs uniformly distributed between the sheathing panels, a simple smeared model is established. Second, periodic structure theory is used to develop a more accurate model taking account of the discrete placing of the studs. Both models treat incident sound waves in the horizontal plane only, for simplicity. The predictions of the two models are compared, to reveal the physical mechanisms determining sound transmission. The smeared model predicts relatively simple behaviour, in which the only conspicuous features are associated with coincidence effects with the two types of structural wave allowed by the partition model, and internal resonances of the air between the panels. In the periodic model, many more features are evident, associated with the structure of pass- and stop-bands for structural waves in the partition. The models are used to explain the effects of incidence angle and of the various system parameters. The predictions are compared with existing test data for steel plates with wooden stiffeners, and good agreement is obtained.

  6. Dynamic simulation of a reboiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeck, E.O.; McMorran, P.D.

    1977-07-01

    A hybrid-computer simulation of reboiler dynamics was prepared, comprising models of steam condensation in tubes, heat conduction, steam generation, a surge tank, steam transmission line and flow-control valve. Time and frequency responses were obtained to illustrate the dynamics of this multivariable process. (author)

  7. Reprint of “Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS”

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau; Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon; Yu, In-Keun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system was designed and fabricated. ► A real-time simulation using Real Time Digital Simulator has been performed. ► The AC loss characteristics of HTS DC power cable caused by harmonics were analyzed. ► The AC loss of the HTS DC power cable will be used as a parameter to design the cable cooling system. -- Abstract: The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail

  8. Reprint of “Performance analysis of a model-sized superconducting DC transmission system based VSC-HVDC transmission technologies using RTDS”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinh, Minh-Chau, E-mail: thanchau7787@gmail.com [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Ju, Chang-Hyeon; Kim, Sung-Kyu; Kim, Jin-Geun; Park, Minwon [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of); Yu, In-Keun, E-mail: yuik@changwon.ac.kr [Changwon National University, 9 Sarim-Dong, Changwon 641-733 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-01-15

    Highlights: ► A model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system was designed and fabricated. ► A real-time simulation using Real Time Digital Simulator has been performed. ► The AC loss characteristics of HTS DC power cable caused by harmonics were analyzed. ► The AC loss of the HTS DC power cable will be used as a parameter to design the cable cooling system. -- Abstract: The combination of a high temperature superconducting DC power cable and a voltage source converter based HVDC (VSC-HVDC) creates a new option for transmitting power with multiple collection and distribution points for long distance and bulk power transmissions. It offers some greater advantages compared with HVAC or conventional HVDC transmission systems, and it is well suited for the grid integration of renewable energy sources in existing distribution or transmission systems. For this reason, a superconducting DC transmission system based HVDC transmission technologies is planned to be set up in the Jeju power system, Korea. Before applying this system to a real power system on Jeju Island, system analysis should be performed through a real time test. In this paper, a model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system, which consists of a small model-sized VSC-HVDC connected to a 2 m YBCO HTS DC model cable, is implemented. The authors have performed the real-time simulation method that incorporates the model-sized superconducting VSC-HVDC system into the simulated Jeju power system using Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS). The performance analysis of the superconducting VSC-HVDC systems has been verified by the proposed test platform and the results were discussed in detail.

  9. Comparison of Transmission Line Methods for Surface Acoustic Wave Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William; Atkinson, Gary

    2009-01-01

    Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) technology is low cost, rugged, lightweight, extremely low power and can be used to develop passive wireless sensors. For these reasons, NASA is investigating the use of SAW technology for Integrated Vehicle Health Monitoring (IVHM) of aerospace structures. To facilitate rapid prototyping of passive SAW sensors for aerospace applications, SAW models have been developed. This paper reports on the comparison of three methods of modeling SAWs. The three models are the Impulse Response Method (a first order model), and two second order matrix methods; the conventional matrix approach, and a modified matrix approach that is extended to include internal finger reflections. The second order models are based upon matrices that were originally developed for analyzing microwave circuits using transmission line theory. Results from the models are presented with measured data from devices. Keywords: Surface Acoustic Wave, SAW, transmission line models, Impulse Response Method.

  10. Research on optimal investment path of transmission corridor under the global energy Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yuehui; Li, Pai; Wang, Qi; Liu, Jichun; Gao, Han

    2018-02-01

    Under the background of the global energy Internet, the investment planning of transmission corridor from XinJiang to Germany is studied in this article, which passes through four countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland. Taking the specific situation of different countries into account, including the length of transmission line, unit construction cost, completion time, transmission price, state tariff, inflation rate and so on, this paper constructed a power transmission investment model. Finally, the dynamic programming method is used to simulate the example, and the optimal strategies under different objective functions are obtained.

  11. Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun, E-mail: kuicansj@163.com; Wei, Ning [College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A and F University, Yangling 712100 (China); Qin, Qing-Hua [Research School of Engineering, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601 (Australia); Shi, Jiao [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211-2200 (United States)

    2015-06-21

    A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation, i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp{sup 1} and sp{sup 2}) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp{sup 1} atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp{sup 2} atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp{sup 2} atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius.

  12. Study on the dynamics responses of a transmission system made from carbon nanotubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Hang; Cai, Kun; Wei, Ning; Qin, Qing-Hua; Shi, Jiao

    2015-01-01

    A rotational transmission system from coaxial carbon nanotubes (CNTs) is investigated using a computational molecular dynamics approach. The system consists of a motor from a single-walled carbon nanotube and a bearing from a double-walled carbon nanotube. The motor has a high fixed rotational frequency and the two ends of the outer tube in the bearing are fixed. The inner tube in the bearing works as a rotor. Because of the interlayer friction in the bearing, configurations of the joint between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor have significant effects on rotational transmission properties. Four factors are considered in simulation, i.e., the bonding types of atoms (sp 1 and sp 2 ) on the ends of motor and rotor, the difference between motor and rotor radii, the rotational speed of motor, and the environmental temperature. It is found that the synchronous transmission happens if the sp 1 atoms on the jointed ends of motor and rotor are bonded each other and become new sp 2 atoms. Therefore, the lower difference between radii of motor and rotor, higher temperature of environment leads to synchronous rotational transmission easily. If the environmental temperature is too low (e.g., <150 K), the end of motor adjacent to rotor is easily under buckling and new sp 2 atoms appear, too. With capped CNTs or higher radii difference between rotor and motor at an appropriate temperature, a stable asynchronous rotation of rotor can be generated, and the rotor's frequency varying linearly with motor's frequency between 230 and 270 GHz. A multi-signal transmission device combined with oscillating and rotational motion is proposed for motor and stator shares a same size in radius

  13. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  14. An Epidemiological Model of Rift Valley Fever with Spatial Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianchan Niu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available As a category A agent in the Center for Disease Control bioterrorism list, Rift Valley fever (RVF is considered a major threat to the United States (USA. Should the pathogen be intentionally or unintentionally introduced to the continental USA, there is tremendous potential for economic damages due to loss of livestock, trade restrictions, and subsequent food supply chain disruptions. We have incorporated the effects of space into a mathematical model of RVF in order to study the dynamics of the pathogen spread as affected by the movement of humans, livestock, and mosquitoes. The model accounts for the horizontal transmission of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV between two mosquito and one livestock species, and mother-to-offspring transmission of virus in one of the mosquito species. Space effects are introduced by dividing geographic space into smaller patches and considering the patch-to-patch movement of species. For each patch, a system of ordinary differential equations models fractions of populations susceptible to, incubating, infectious with, or immune to RVFV. The main contribution of this work is a methodology for analyzing the likelihood of pathogen establishment should an introduction occur into an area devoid of RVF. Examples are provided for general and specific cases to illustrate the methodology.

  15. Malaria transmission dynamics at a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appawu, Maxwell; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Dadzie, Samuel; Asoala, Victor; Anto, Francis; Koram, Kwadwo; Rogers, William; Nkrumah, Francis; Hoffman, Stephen L; Fryauff, David J

    2004-01-01

    We studied the malaria transmission dynamics in Kassena Nankana district (KND), a site in northern Ghana proposed for testing malaria vaccines. Intensive mosquito sampling for 1 year using human landing catches in three micro-ecological sites (irrigated, lowland and rocky highland) yielded 18 228 mosquitoes. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus constituted 94.3% of the total collection with 76.8% captured from the irrigated communities. Other species collected but in relatively few numbers were Anopheles pharoensis (5.4%) and Anopheles rufipes (0.3%). Molecular analysis of 728 An. gambiae.s.l. identified Anopheles gambiae s.s. as the most dominant sibling species (97.7%) of the An. gambiae complex from the three ecological sites. Biting rates of the vectors (36.7 bites per man per night) were significantly higher (P<0.05) in the irrigated area than in the non-irrigated lowland (5.2) and rocky highlands (5.9). Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rates of 7.2% (295/4075) and 7.1% (269/3773) were estimated for An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus, respectively. Transmission was highly seasonal, and the heaviest transmission occurred from June to October. The intensity of transmission was higher for people in the irrigated communities than the non-irrigated ones. An overall annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) of 418 infective bites was estimated in KND. There were micro-ecological variations in the EIRs, with values of 228 infective bites in the rocky highlands, 360 in the lowlands and 630 in the irrigated area. Approximately 60% of malaria transmission in KND occurred indoors during the second half of the night, peaking at daybreak between 04.00 and 06.00 hours. Vaccine trials could be conducted in this district, with timing dependent on the seasonal patterns and intensity of transmission taking into consideration the micro-geographical differences and vaccine trial objectives.

  16. Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

    2006-01-01

    Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

  17. Evaluation of Yersinia pestis transmission pathways for sylvatic plague in prairie dog populations in the western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Bron, Gebbiena; Rocke, Tonie E.

    2016-01-01

    Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.

  18. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitzer, Virginia E; Viboud, Cécile; Lopman, Ben A; Patel, Manish M; Parashar, Umesh D; Grenfell, Bryan T

    2011-11-07

    Rotavirus is a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and yet the dynamics of rotavirus in such settings are poorly understood. Rotavirus is typically less seasonal in the tropics, although recent observational studies have challenged the universality of this pattern. While numerous studies have examined the association between environmental factors and rotavirus incidence, here we explore the role of intrinsic factors. By fitting a mathematical model of rotavirus transmission dynamics to published age distributions of cases from 15 countries, we obtain estimates of local transmission rates. Model-predicted patterns of seasonal incidence based solely on differences in birth rates and transmission rates are significantly correlated with those observed (Spearman's ρ = 0.65, p birth rates and transmission rates and explore how vaccination may impact these patterns. Our results suggest that the relative lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in many tropical countries may be due to the high birth rates and transmission rates typical of developing countries rather than being driven primarily by environmental conditions. While vaccination is expected to decrease the overall burden of disease, it may increase the degree of seasonal variation in the incidence of rotavirus in some settings.

  19. Small passenger car transmission test-Chevrolet 200 transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bujold, M. P.

    1980-01-01

    The small passenger car transmission was tested to supply electric vehicle manufacturers with technical information regarding the performance of commerically available transmissions which would enable them to design a more energy efficient vehicle. With this information the manufacturers could estimate vehicle driving range as well as speed and torque requirements for specific road load performance characteristics. A 1979 Chevrolet Model 200 automatic transmission was tested per a passenger car automatic transmission test code (SAE J651b) which required drive performance, coast performance, and no load test conditions. The transmission attained maximum efficiencies in the mid-eighty percent range for both drive performance tests and coast performance tests. Torque, speed and efficiency curves map the complete performance characteristics for Chevrolet Model 200 transmission.

  20. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Design optimization of the transmission system for electric vehicles considering the dynamic efficiency of the regenerative brake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Bolin; Lv, Chen; Hofman, Theo; Steinbuch, Maarten; Zhang, Junzhi; Cao, Dongpu

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, gear ratios of a two-speed transmission system are optimized for an electric passenger car. Quasi static system models, including the vehicle model, the motor, the battery, the transmission system, and drive cycles are established in MATLAB/Simulink at first. Specifically, since the

  2. Transmission of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the Immunocompromised Ferret Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waal, Leon; Smits, Saskia L.; Veldhuis Kroeze, Edwin J. B.; van Amerongen, Geert; Pohl, Marie O.; Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.; Stittelaar, Koert J.

    2018-01-01

    Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) causes substantial morbidity and mortality in vulnerable patients, such as the very young, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals of any age. Nosocomial transmission of HRSV remains a serious challenge in hospital settings, with intervention strategies largely limited to infection control measures, including isolation of cases, high standards of hand hygiene, cohort nursing, and use of personal protective equipment. No vaccines against HRSV are currently available, and treatment options are largely supportive care and expensive monoclonal antibody or antiviral therapy. The limitations of current animal models for HRSV infection impede the development of new preventive and therapeutic agents, and the assessment of their potential for limiting HRSV transmission, in particular in nosocomial settings. Here, we demonstrate the efficient transmission of HRSV from immunocompromised ferrets to both immunocompromised and immunocompetent contact ferrets, with pathological findings reproducing HRSV pathology in humans. The immunocompromised ferret-HRSV model represents a novel tool for the evaluation of intervention strategies against nosocomial transmission of HRSV. PMID:29301313

  3. Modeling effective transmission pathways and control of the world's most successful parasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Matthew; Lenhart, Suzanne; Rosenthal, Benjamin; Zhao, Xiaopeng

    2013-06-01

    Toxoplasma gondii(T. gondii) is a single-celled, intracellular protozoan responsible for the disease toxoplasmosis. The parasite is prevalent worldwide, and it infects all warm-blooded vertebrates. Consumption of meats in which this parasite has encysted confers risk of infection to people and other animals, as does ingestion of water or foods contaminated with environmentally resistant oocysts excreted by cats. Vertical transmission (from mother to offspring) is also possible, leading to disease risk and contributing additional means of ensuring perpetuation of transmission. In this work, we adopt a differential equation model to investigate the effective transmission pathways of T. gondii, as well as potential control mechanisms. Detailed analyses are carried out to examine the significance of transmission routes, virulence, vertical transmission, parasite-induced changes in host behavior, and controls based on vaccination and harvesting. Modeling and analysis efforts may shed insights into understanding the complex life cycle of T. gondii. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun M Yang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

  5. Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of Rift Valley fever virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yanyu; Beier, John C.; Cantrell, Robert Stephen; Cosner, Chris; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ruan, Shigui

    2015-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held).

  6. Analytical Model for High Impedance Fault Analysis in Transmission Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Maximov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A high impedance fault (HIF normally occurs when an overhead power line physically breaks and falls to the ground. Such faults are difficult to detect because they often draw small currents which cannot be detected by conventional overcurrent protection. Furthermore, an electric arc accompanies HIFs, resulting in fire hazard, damage to electrical devices, and risk with human life. This paper presents an analytical model to analyze the interaction between the electric arc associated to HIFs and a transmission line. A joint analytical solution to the wave equation for a transmission line and a nonlinear equation for the arc model is presented. The analytical model is validated by means of comparisons between measured and calculated results. Several cases of study are presented which support the foundation and accuracy of the proposed model.

  7. Dynamic analysis of cross shaft type universal joint with clearance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Jian Wei; Wang, Gong Cheng; Chen, Hao; Vakakis, Alexander F.; Bergman, Lawrence A.

    2013-01-01

    Cross shaft type universal joint is widely used in ground vehicles to transfer torque between two intersecting axes, and its transmission feature can make a great contribution to NVH performance of the vehicle. We looked at the assembling clearance at cross shaft neck, and presented a dynamic model of cross shaft type universal joint with clearance at cross shaft neck. Two-state model is applied to describe the contact force between the cross shaft and driving joint fork based on Hertz theorem, and lumped mass method is applied to build up the dynamic model of the universal joint. Based on this model, numerical analysis is carried out to discuss the transmission feature of the universal joint with clearance at cross shaft neck, and the influence of clearance on the dynamic behavior of the system is evaluated with numerical results based on time history, power spectrum, and phase portrait. The method and conclusions presented are helpful to improvement of the transmission feature of cross shaft type universal joint.

  8. Molecular dynamics of tert-butanol studied by neutron transmission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaral, L.Q.; Fulfaro, R.; Vinhas, L.A.

    1974-01-01

    Neutron transmission of the globular compound tert-butanol (CH 3 ) 3 COH have been measured in the temperature interval O 0 C to 40 0 C for 6.13 A neutrons and in the neutron wavelength range 4A to 7.5A in the liquid and solid states. Results show that the cross-section difference at the state transition in 24 0 C is 13%, while it is only approximately 1% at the first order phase transition in 14 0 C. Evidence of existence of third crystalline phase with the lowest cross-section has been found. The barrier to interval methyl rotation in the solid states is estimated as (3.=+ - 0.5) Kcal/mol and does change much over the phase and state transitions. The observed dynamical changes must be due to movements of the whole molecule and evidence that tert-butanol is not in the strict sense a plastic crystal. Correlation with heat capacity results is discussed

  9. High-pass filtering and dynamic gain regulation enhance vertical bursts transmission along the mossy fiber pathway of cerebellum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Mapelli

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Signal elaboration in the cerebellum mossy fiber input pathway presents controversial aspects, especially concerning gain regulation and the spot-like (rather than beam-like appearance of granular-to-molecular layer transmission. By using voltage-sensitive dye (VSD imaging in rat cerebellar slices (Mapelli et al., 2010, we found that mossy fiber bursts optimally excited the granular layer above ~50 Hz and the overlaying molecular layer above ~100 Hz, thus generating a cascade of high-pass filters. NMDA receptors enhanced transmission in the granular, while GABA-A receptors depressed transmission in both the granular and molecular layer. Burst transmission gain was controlled through a dynamic frequency-dependent involvement of these receptors. Moreover, while high-frequency transmission was enhanced along vertical lines connecting the granular to molecular layer, no high-frequency enhancement was observed along the parallel fiber axis in the molecular layer. This was probably due to the stronger effect of Purkinje cell GABA-A receptor-mediated inhibition occurring along the parallel fibers than along the granule cell axon ascending branch. The consequent amplification of burst responses along vertical transmission lines could explain the spot-like activation of Purkinje cells observed following punctuate stimulation in vivo .

  10. Animal models for oral transmission of Listeria monocytogenes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E F D'Orazio

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Listeria monocytogenes has been recognized as a food borne pathogen in humans since the 1980s, but we still understand very little about oral transmission of L. monocytogenes or the host factors that determine susceptibility to gastrointestinal infection, due to the lack of an appropriate small animal model of oral listeriosis. Early feeding trials suggested that many animals were highly resistant to oral infection, and the more reproducible intravenous or intraperitoneal routes of inoculation soon came to be favored. There are a fair number of previously published studies using an oral infection route, but the work varies widely in terms of bacterial strain choice, the methods used for oral transmission, and various manipulations used to enhance infectivity. This mini review will summarize the published literature using oral routes of L. monocytogenes infection and will highlight recent technological advances that have made oral infection a more attractive model system.

  11. LOADING OF MECHANICAL TRANSMISSION OF TROLLEYBUS TRACTION DRIVING GEAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Safonov

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes factors that determine dynamic loads of mechanical transmission of trolleybus traction driving gear. The paper proposes a methodology for determination of calculative moments of loading transmission elements. Results of the research are analyzed and recommendations on  dynamic reduction of trolleybus transmission are given in the paper. 

  12. Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

  13. Use of element model to evaluate transmissibility reduction due to barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svanes, T.; South, D.; Dronen, O.M. [Statoil, Bergen (Norway)

    1997-08-01

    Water breakthrough has been observed a year earlier than expected in the productive Oseberg Formation in the Veslefrikk Field. Production data revealed extensive water override, whereas the opposite situation was expected based on a homogeneous and coarse flow simulation model. A new model was developed to include geological heterogeneities using a simple upscaling method. The Oseberg Fm. consists of an upper homogeneous unit (zone 2) and a lower unit containing thin barriers of shale and calcite cemented sandstone (zone 1). The barrier content varies laterally. When barriers are distributed in a complex 3D pattern, they reduce the upscaled horizontal transmissibility more than what is obtained by multiplying the sand permeability by the net-to-gross ratio (N/G). However, the transmissibility reduction strongly depends on the spatial distribution of barriers and their geometry. Therefore, a fine scale element model was used to derive the average transmissibility reduction as a function of N/G for alternative geological descriptions of the barriers. A geo-statistical method called General Marked Point Process was used to generate the fine scale descriptions. This work has resulted in a simple upscaling routine for horizontal transmissibility, which represents an effective bridge between geological evaluation of uncertainties and fluid flow simulation. The method combines geo-statistical and deterministic modelling in an elegant manner, recognising that most often these methods complement one another.

  14. A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

    2015-03-01

    Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

  15. Analysis of a Malaria Model with Mosquito-Dependent Transmission ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we discuss an ordinary differential equation mathematical model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. We suppose the human population to act as a reservoir. Both the species follow a logistic population model. The transmission coefficient or the interaction coefficient of humans is ...

  16. Monkeypox disease transmission in an experimental setting: prairie dog animal model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina L Hutson

    Full Text Available Monkeypox virus (MPXV is considered the most significant human public health threat in the genus Orthopoxvirus since the eradication of variola virus (the causative agent of smallpox. MPXV is a zoonotic agent endemic to forested areas of Central and Western Africa. In 2003, MPXV caused an outbreak in the United States due to the importation of infected African rodents, and subsequent sequential infection of North American prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus and humans. In previous studies, the prairie dog MPXV model has successfully shown to be very useful for understanding MPXV since the model emulates key characteristics of human monkeypox disease. In humans, percutaneous exposure to animals has been documented but the primary method of human-to-human MPXV transmission is postulated to be by respiratory route. Only a few animal model studies of MPXV transmission have been reported. Herein, we show that MPXV infected prairie dogs are able to transmit the virus to naive animals through multiple transmission routes. All secondarily exposed animals were infected with MPXV during the course of the study. Notably, animals secondarily exposed appeared to manifest more severe disease; however, the disease course was very similar to those of experimentally challenged animals including inappetence leading to weight loss, development of lesions, production of orthopoxvirus antibodies and shedding of similar levels or in some instances higher levels of MPXV from the oral cavity. Disease was transmitted via exposure to contaminated bedding, co-housing, or respiratory secretions/nasal mucous (we could not definitively say that transmission occurred via respiratory route exclusively. Future use of the model will allow us to evaluate infection control measures, vaccines and antiviral strategies to decrease disease transmission.

  17. Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggaley, Rebecca F.; Fraser, Christophe

    2010-01-01

    Purpose of review To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact. Recent findings We use mathematical modelling of “universal test and treat” as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission. Summary Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, while complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and thus be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis where assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis. PMID:20543600

  18. Determinants of Rotavirus Transmission: A Lag Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Gaalen, Rolina D; van de Kassteele, Jan; Hahné, Susan J M; Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia; Wallinga, Jacco

    2017-07-01

    Rotavirus is a common viral infection among young children. As in many countries, the infection dynamics of rotavirus in the Netherlands are characterized by an annual winter peak, which was notably low in 2014. Previous study suggested an association between weather factors and both rotavirus transmission and incidence. From epidemic theory, we know that the proportion of susceptible individuals can affect disease transmission. We investigated how these factors are associated with rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands, and their impact on rotavirus transmission in 2014. We used available data on birth rates and rotavirus laboratory reports to estimate rotavirus transmission and the proportion of individuals susceptible to primary infection. Weather data were directly available from a central meteorological station. We developed an approach for detecting determinants of seasonal rotavirus transmission by assessing nonlinear, delayed associations between each factor and rotavirus transmission. We explored relationships by applying a distributed lag nonlinear regression model with seasonal terms. We corrected for residual serial correlation using autoregressive moving average errors. We inferred the relationship between different factors and the effective reproduction number from the most parsimonious model with low residual autocorrelation. Higher proportions of susceptible individuals and lower temperatures were associated with increases in rotavirus transmission. For 2014, our findings suggest that relatively mild temperatures combined with the low proportion of susceptible individuals contributed to lower rotavirus transmission in the Netherlands. However, our model, which overestimated the magnitude of the peak, suggested that other factors were likely instrumental in reducing the incidence that year.

  19. An optimal control strategies using vaccination and fogging in dengue fever transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitria, Irma; Winarni, Pancahayani, Sigit; Subchan

    2017-08-01

    This paper discussed regarding a model and an optimal control problem of dengue fever transmission. We classified the model as human and vector (mosquito) population classes. For the human population, there are three subclasses, such as susceptible, infected, and resistant classes. Then, for the vector population, we divided it into wiggler, susceptible, and infected vector classes. Thus, the model consists of six dynamic equations. To minimize the number of dengue fever cases, we designed two optimal control variables in the model, the giving of fogging and vaccination. The objective function of this optimal control problem is to minimize the number of infected human population, the number of vector, and the cost of the controlling efforts. By giving the fogging optimally, the number of vector can be minimized. In this case, we considered the giving of vaccination as a control variable because it is one of the efforts that are being developed to reduce the spreading of dengue fever. We used Pontryagin Minimum Principle to solve the optimal control problem. Furthermore, the numerical simulation results are given to show the effect of the optimal control strategies in order to minimize the epidemic of dengue fever.

  20. Modeling and analysis of strategic forward contracting in transmission constrained power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, C.W.; Chung, T.S.; Zhang, S.H.; Wang, X.

    2010-01-01

    Taking the effects of transmission network into account, strategic forward contracting induced by the interaction of generation firms' strategies in the spot and forward markets is investigated. A two-stage game model is proposed to describe generation firms' strategic forward contracting and spot market competition. In the spot market, generation firms behave strategically by submitting bids at their nodes in a form of linear supply function (LSF) and there are arbitrageurs who buy and resell power at different nodes where price differences exceed the costs of transmission. The owner of the grid is assumed to ration limited transmission line capacity to maximize the value of the transmission services in the spot market. The Cournot-type competition is assumed for the strategic forward contract market. This two-stage model is formulated as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC); in which each firm's optimization problem in the forward market is a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and parameter-dependent spot market equilibrium as the inner problem. A nonlinear complementarity method is employed to solve this EPEC model. (author)

  1. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  2. Inference of Transmission Network Structure from HIV Phylogenetic Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giardina, Federica; Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie; Albert, Jan; Britton, Tom; Leitner, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Phylogenetic inference is an attractive means to reconstruct transmission histories and epidemics. However, there is not a perfect correspondence between transmission history and virus phylogeny. Both node height and topological differences may occur, depending on the interaction between within-host evolutionary dynamics and between-host transmission patterns. To investigate these interactions, we added a within-host evolutionary model in epidemiological simulations and examined if the resulting phylogeny could recover different types of contact networks. To further improve realism, we also introduced patient-specific differences in infectivity across disease stages, and on the epidemic level we considered incomplete sampling and the age of the epidemic. Second, we implemented an inference method based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to discriminate among three well-studied network models and jointly estimate both network parameters and key epidemiological quantities such as the infection rate. Our ABC framework used both topological and distance-based tree statistics for comparison between simulated and observed trees. Overall, our simulations showed that a virus time-scaled phylogeny (genealogy) may be substantially different from the between-host transmission tree. This has important implications for the interpretation of what a phylogeny reveals about the underlying epidemic contact network. In particular, we found that while the within-host evolutionary process obscures the transmission tree, the diversification process and infectivity dynamics also add discriminatory power to differentiate between different types of contact networks. We also found that the possibility to differentiate contact networks depends on how far an epidemic has progressed, where distance-based tree statistics have more power early in an epidemic. Finally, we applied our ABC inference on two different outbreaks from the Swedish HIV-1 epidemic.

  3. Highly dynamic animal contact network and implications on disease transmission

    OpenAIRE

    Shi Chen; Brad J. White; Michael W. Sanderson; David E. Amrine; Amiyaal Ilany; Cristina Lanzas

    2014-01-01

    Contact patterns among hosts are considered as one of the most critical factors contributing to unequal pathogen transmission. Consequently, networks have been widely applied in infectious disease modeling. However most studies assume static network structure due to lack of accurate observation and appropriate analytic tools. In this study we used high temporal and spatial resolution animal position data to construct a high-resolution contact network relevant to infectious disease transmissio...

  4. Design, analysis and modeling of a novel hybrid powertrain system based on hybridized automated manual transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guang; Dong, Zuomin

    2017-09-01

    Hybrid electric vehicles are widely accepted as a promising short to mid-term technical solution due to noticeably improved efficiency and lower emissions at competitive costs. In recent years, various hybrid powertrain systems were proposed and implemented based on different types of conventional transmission. Power-split system, including Toyota Hybrid System and Ford Hybrid System, are well-known examples. However, their relatively low torque capacity, and the drive of alternative and more advanced designs encouraged other innovative hybrid system designs. In this work, a new type of hybrid powertrain system based hybridized automated manual transmission (HAMT) is proposed. By using the concept of torque gap filler (TGF), this new hybrid powertrain type has the potential to overcome issue of torque gap during gearshift. The HAMT design (patent pending) is described in details, from gear layout and design of gear ratios (EV mode and HEV mode) to torque paths at different gears. As an analytical tool, mutli-body model of vehicle equipped with this HAMT was built to analyze powertrain dynamics at various steady and transient modes. A gearshift was decomposed and analyzed based basic modes. Furthermore, a Simulink-SimDriveline hybrid vehicle model was built for the new transmission, driveline and vehicle modular. Control strategy has also been built to harmonically coordinate different powertrain components to realize TGF function. A vehicle launch simulation test has been completed under 30% of accelerator pedal position to reveal details during gearshift. Simulation results showed that this HAMT can eliminate most torque gap that has been persistent issue of traditional AMT, improving both drivability and performance. This work demonstrated a new type of transmission that features high torque capacity, high efficiency and improved drivability.

  5. Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-02-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA's modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes

  6. Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-02-01

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. From 1982 through 1993, the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) was used by the EIA for its analyses, and the Gas Analysis Modeling System (GAMS) was used within IFFS to represent natural gas markets. Prior to 1982, the Midterm Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), also referred to as the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES), was employed. NEMS was developed to enhance and update EIA`s modeling capability by internally incorporating models of energy markets that had previously been analyzed off-line. In addition, greater structural detail in NEMS permits the analysis of a broader range of energy issues. The time horizon of NEMS is the midterm period (i.e., through 2015). In order to represent the regional differences in energy markets, the component models of NEMS function at regional levels appropriate for the markets represented, with subsequent aggregation/disaggregation to the Census Division level for reporting purposes.

  7. Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjandra Y Aditama

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Disease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared cases (n = 177 and contacts (n = 496 in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human

  8. Echinococcus multilocularis infection in the field vole (Microtus agrestis)an ecological model for studies on transmission dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woolsey, Ian David; Bune, Nethe Eva Touborg; Jensen, Per Moestrup

    2015-01-01

    We propose a model involving the oral inoculation of Echinococcus multilocularis eggs in a vole species and examine the infection dynamics in a dose-response experiment. Defined doses, 100 (n = 8), 500 (n = 5) and 1000 (n = 5) of E. multilocularis eggs were used to inoculate Microtus agrestis. Four...

  9. Communicative Modelling of Cultural Transmission and Evolution Through a Holographic Cognition Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambjörn Naeve

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents communicative ways to model the transmission and evolution of the processes and artefacts of a culture as the result of ongoing interactions between its members - both at the tacit and the explicit level. The purpose is not to model the entire cultural process, but to provide semantically rich “conceptual placeholders” for modelling any cultural activity that is considered important enough within a certain context. The general purpose of communicative modelling is to create models that improve the quality of communication between people. In order to capture the subjective aspects of Gregory Bateson’s definition of information as “a difference that makes a difference,” the article introduces a Holographic Cognition Model that uses optical holography as an analogy for human cognition, with the object beam of holography corresponding to the first difference (the situation that the cognitive agent encounters, and the reference beam of holography corresponding to the subjective experiences and biases that the agent brings to the situation, and which makes the second difference (the interference/interpretation pattern unique for each agent. By combining the HCM with a semantically rich and recursive form of process modelling, based on the SECI-theory of knowledge creation, we arrive at way to model the cultural transmission and evolution process that is consistent with the Unified Theory of Information (the Triple-C model with its emphasis on intra-, inter- and supra-actions.

  10. Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brockmann Stefan O

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Quantification of the transmission dynamics of smallpox is crucial for optimizing intervention strategies in the event of a bioterrorist attack. This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data. Main findings First, critically important aspects in extracting key information from historical data are briefly summarized. We mention different sources of heterogeneity and potential pitfalls in utilizing historical records. Second, we discuss how smallpox spreads in the absence of interventions and how the optimal timing of quarantine and isolation measures can be determined. Case studies demonstrate the following. (1 The upper confidence limit of the 99th percentile of the incubation period is 22.2 days, suggesting that quarantine should last 23 days. (2 The highest frequency (61.8% of secondary transmissions occurs 3–5 days after onset of fever so that infected individuals should be isolated before the appearance of rash. (3 The U-shaped age-specific case fatality implies a vulnerability of infants and elderly among non-immune individuals. Estimates of the transmission potential are subsequently reviewed, followed by an assessment of vaccination effects and of the expected effectiveness of interventions. Conclusion Current debates on bio-terrorism preparedness indicate that public health decision making must account for the complex interplay and balance between vaccination strategies and other public health measures (e.g. case isolation and contact tracing taking into account the frequency of adverse events to vaccination. In this review, we summarize what has already been clarified and point out needs to analyze previous smallpox outbreaks systematically.

  11. Comparison of transmission dynamics between Streptococcus uberis and Streptococcus agalactiae intramammary infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leelahapongsathon, Kansuda; Schukken, Ynte Hein; Pinyopummintr, Tanu; Suriyasathaporn, Witaya

    2016-02-01

    parameter and R0 values were not different between both pathogens; however, the duration of infection for Strep. agalactiae was longer than Strep. uberis. These suggest that Strep. uberis may have a different transmission dynamic compared with Strep. agalactiae. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. ARMAX, OE and SSIF model predictors for power transmission and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Three mathematical model structures, namely: ARMAX, OE and a SSIF are first formulated followed by the formulation of their respective model predictors for the model identification and prediction of power transmission and distribution within Akure and its environs. A total of 51,350 data samples from the Power Holding ...

  13. Horizontal transmission dynamics of White spot syndrome virus by cohabitation trials in juvenile Penaeus monodon and P. vannamei

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ngo Xuan, T.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Vlak, J.M.; Jong, de M.C.M.

    2014-01-01

    White spot syndrome virus (WSSV), a rod-shaped double-stranded DNA virus, is an infectious agent causing fatal disease in shrimp farming around the globe. Within shrimp populations WSSV is transmitted very fast, however, the modes and dynamics of transmission of this virus are not well understood.

  14. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

  15. Analysis of main dynamic parameters of split power transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Janulevičius

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The review carried out had shown one basic approach of split power transmission to the organization of drive which is applied to stepless transmissions of tractors and parallel hybrid cars. In the split power transmission the power split device uses a planetary gear. Tractor engine power in the split power transmission is transmitted to the drive shaft via a mechanical and hydraulic path. The theoretical analysis of main parameters of the split power transmission of the tractor is presented. The angular velocity of sun and coronary gears of the differential set is estimated by solution of the system of equations in which one equation is made for planetary differential gear, and another – for hydrostatic drive. The analysis of the transmission gear-ratio dependencies on the ratio of hydraulic machines capacities is carried out. Dependence of the variation of angular velocity of the coronary and the sun gears on the ground speed of the tractor is presented. Dependence of sum shaft torque and its constituents, carried by mechanical and hydraulic lines, on sum shaft angular velocity and ground speed of tractor and engine speed is also presented.

  16. Adult vector control, mosquito ecology and malaria transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Oliver J; Godfray, H Charles J; Tatem, Andrew J; Gething, Peter W; Cohen, Justin M; McKenzie, F Ellis; Alex Perkins, T; Reiner, Robert C; Tusting, Lucy S; Scott, Thomas W; Lindsay, Steven W; Hay, Simon I; Smith, David L

    2015-03-01

    Standard advice regarding vector control is to prefer interventions that reduce the lifespan of adult mosquitoes. The basis for this advice is a decades-old sensitivity analysis of 'vectorial capacity', a concept relevant for most malaria transmission models and based solely on adult mosquito population dynamics. Recent advances in micro-simulation models offer an opportunity to expand the theory of vectorial capacity to include both adult and juvenile mosquito stages in the model. In this study we revisit arguments about transmission and its sensitivity to mosquito bionomic parameters using an elasticity analysis of developed formulations of vectorial capacity. We show that reducing adult survival has effects on both adult and juvenile population size, which are significant for transmission and not accounted for in traditional formulations of vectorial capacity. The elasticity of these effects is dependent on various mosquito population parameters, which we explore. Overall, control is most sensitive to methods that affect adult mosquito mortality rates, followed by blood feeding frequency, human blood feeding habit, and lastly, to adult mosquito population density. These results emphasise more strongly than ever the sensitivity of transmission to adult mosquito mortality, but also suggest the high potential of combinations of interventions including larval source management. This must be done with caution, however, as policy requires a more careful consideration of costs, operational difficulties and policy goals in relation to baseline transmission. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  17. Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian

    2015-02-21

    In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, P.; Hulse, A.; Harder, H. R.; Pierce, L. A.; Rizzo, D.; Hanley, J.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Justi, S.; Monroy, C.

    2015-12-01

    A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death. The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima. High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing

  19. Quantum dynamics modeled by interacting trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Rodríguez, L.; Uranga-Piña, L.; Martínez-Mesa, A.; Meier, C.

    2018-03-01

    We present quantum dynamical simulations based on the propagation of interacting trajectories where the effect of the quantum potential is mimicked by effective pseudo-particle interactions. The method is applied to several quantum systems, both for bound and scattering problems. For the bound systems, the quantum ground state density and zero point energy are shown to be perfectly obtained by the interacting trajectories. In the case of time-dependent quantum scattering, the Eckart barrier and uphill ramp are considered, with transmission coefficients in very good agreement with standard quantum calculations. Finally, we show that via wave function synthesis along the trajectories, correlation functions and energy spectra can be obtained based on the dynamics of interacting trajectories.

  20. Online traffic flow model applying dynamic flow-density relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This dissertation describes a new approach of the online traffic flow modelling based on the hydrodynamic traffic flow model and an online process to adapt the flow-density relation dynamically. The new modelling approach was tested based on the real traffic situations in various homogeneous motorway sections and a motorway section with ramps and gave encouraging simulation results. This work is composed of two parts: first the analysis of traffic flow characteristics and second the development of a new online traffic flow model applying these characteristics. For homogeneous motorway sections traffic flow is classified into six different traffic states with different characteristics. Delimitation criteria were developed to separate these states. The hysteresis phenomena were analysed during the transitions between these traffic states. The traffic states and the transitions are represented on a states diagram with the flow axis and the density axis. For motorway sections with ramps the complicated traffic flow is simplified and classified into three traffic states depending on the propagation of congestion. The traffic states are represented on a phase diagram with the upstream demand axis and the interaction strength axis which was defined in this research. The states diagram and the phase diagram provide a basis for the development of the dynamic flow-density relation. The first-order hydrodynamic traffic flow model was programmed according to the cell-transmission scheme extended by the modification of flow dependent sending/receiving functions, the classification of cells and the determination strategy for the flow-density relation in the cells. The unreasonable results of macroscopic traffic flow models, which may occur in the first and last cells in certain conditions are alleviated by applying buffer cells between the traffic data and the model. The sending/receiving functions of the cells are determined dynamically based on the classification of the

  1. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liping; Wang, Li; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

    2017-03-04

    Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1) model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1)), and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1)), in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)₄ model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1) model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

  2. Time Prediction Models for Echinococcosis Based on Gray System Theory and Epidemic Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Echinococcosis, which can seriously harm human health and animal husbandry production, has become an endemic in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. In order to explore an effective human Echinococcosis forecasting model in Xinjiang, three grey models, namely, the traditional grey GM(1,1 model, the Grey-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model (PECGM(1,1, and the Modified Grey Model using Fourier Series (FGM(1,1, in addition to a multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,1(1,1,04 model, are applied in this study for short-term predictions. The accuracy of the different grey models is also investigated. The simulation results show that the FGM(1,1 model has a higher performance ability, not only for model fitting, but also for forecasting. Furthermore, considering the stability and the modeling precision in the long run, a dynamic epidemic prediction model based on the transmission mechanism of Echinococcosis is also established for long-term predictions. Results demonstrate that the dynamic epidemic prediction model is capable of identifying the future tendency. The number of human Echinococcosis cases will increase steadily over the next 25 years, reaching a peak of about 1250 cases, before eventually witnessing a slow decline, until it finally ends.

  3. Nonlinear Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of Torsional Spring-Loaded Antibacklash Gear with Time-Varying Meshing Stiffness and Friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheng Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Torsional spring-loaded antibacklash gear which can improve the transmission precision is widely used in many precision transmission fields. It is very important to investigate the dynamic characteristics of antibacklash gear. In the paper, applied force analysis is completed in detail. Then, defining the starting point of double-gear meshing as initial position, according to the meshing characteristic of antibacklash gear, single- or double-tooth meshing states of two gear pairs and the transformation relationship at any moment are determined. Based on this, a nonlinear model of antibacklash gear with time-varying friction and meshing stiffness is proposed. The influences of friction and variations of torsional spring stiffness, damping ratio and preload on dynamic transmission error (DTE are analyzed by numerical calculation and simulation, and the results show that antibacklash gear can increase the composite meshing stiffness; when the torsional spring stiffness is large enough, the oscillating components of the DTE (ODTE and the RMS of the DTE (RDTE trend to be a constant value; the variations of ODTE and RDTE are not significant, unless preload exceeds a certain value.

  4. Modeling dynamic swarms

    KAUST Repository

    Ghanem, Bernard; Ahuja, Narendra

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal

  5. Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

  6. Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bücker, K; Picher, M; Crégut, O; LaGrange, T; Reed, B W; Park, S T; Masiel, D J; Banhart, F

    2016-12-01

    High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Molecular assessment of Hepatozoon (Apicomplexa: Adeleorina) infections in wild canids and rodents from north Africa, with implications for transmission dynamics across taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maia, João P; Alvares, Francisco; Boratyński, Zbyszek; Brito, José C; Leite, João V; Harris, D James

    2014-10-01

    Parasites play a major role in ecosystems, and understanding of host-parasite interactions is important for predicting parasite transmission dynamics and epidemiology. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the distribution, diversity, and impact of parasites in wildlife, especially from remote areas. Hepatozoon is a genus of apicomplexan parasites that is transmitted by ingestion of infected arthropod vectors. However, alternative modes of transmission have been identified such as trophic transmission. Using the 18S rRNA gene as a marker, we provide an assessment of Hepatozoon prevalence in six wild canid and two rodent species collected between 2003 and 2012 from remote areas in North Africa. By combining this with other predator-prey systems in a phylogenetic framework, we investigate Hepatozoon transmission dynamics in distinct host taxa. Prevalence was high overall among host species (African jerboa Jaculus jaculus [17/47, 36%], greater Egyptian jerboa Jaculus orientalis [5/7, 71%], side-striped jackal Canis adustus [1/2, 50%], golden jackal Canis aureus [6/32, 18%], pale fox Vulpes pallida [14/28, 50%], Rüppell's fox Vulpes rueppellii [6/11, 55%], red fox Vulpes vulpes [8/16, 50%], and fennec fox Vulpes zerda [7/11, 42%]). Phylogenetic analysis showed further evidence of occasional transmission of Hepatozoon lineages from prey to canid predators, which seems to occur less frequently than in other predator-prey systems such as between snakes and lizards. Due to the complex nature of the Hepatozoon lifecycle (heteroxenous and vector-borne), future studies on these wild host species need to clarify the dynamics of alternative modes of Hepatozoon transmission and identify reservoir and definitive hosts in natural populations. We also detected putative Babesia spp. (Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) infections in two canid species from this region, V. pallida (1/28) and V. zerda (1/11).

  8. Transmission Loss Calculation using A and B Loss Coefficients in Dynamic Economic Dispatch Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jethmalani, C. H. Ram; Dumpa, Poornima; Simon, Sishaj P.; Sundareswaran, K.

    2016-04-01

    This paper analyzes the performance of A-loss coefficients while evaluating transmission losses in a Dynamic Economic Dispatch (DED) Problem. The performance analysis is carried out by comparing the losses computed using nominal A loss coefficients and nominal B loss coefficients in reference with load flow solution obtained by standard Newton-Raphson (NR) method. Density based clustering method based on connected regions with sufficiently high density (DBSCAN) is employed in identifying the best regions of A and B loss coefficients. Based on the results obtained through cluster analysis, a novel approach in improving the accuracy of network loss calculation is proposed. Here, based on the change in per unit load values between the load intervals, loss coefficients are updated for calculating the transmission losses. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated on IEEE 6 bus system, IEEE 14 bus, system IEEE 30 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system. All simulations are carried out using SCILAB 5.4 (www.scilab.org) which is an open source software.

  9. Unraveling the Transmission Ecology of Polio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Bakker, Micaela; King, Aaron A; Rohani, Pejman

    2015-06-01

    Sustained and coordinated vaccination efforts have brought polio eradication within reach. Anticipating the eradication of wild poliovirus (WPV) and the subsequent challenges in preventing its re-emergence, we look to the past to identify why polio rose to epidemic levels in the mid-20th century, and how WPV persisted over large geographic scales. We analyzed an extensive epidemiological dataset, spanning the 1930s to the 1950s and spatially replicated across each state in the United States, to glean insight into the drivers of polio's historical expansion and the ecological mode of its persistence prior to vaccine introduction. We document a latitudinal gradient in polio's seasonality. Additionally, we fitted and validated mechanistic transmission models to data from each US state independently. The fitted models revealed that: (1) polio persistence was the product of a dynamic mosaic of source and sink populations; (2) geographic heterogeneity of seasonal transmission conditions account for the latitudinal structure of polio epidemics; (3) contrary to the prevailing "disease of development" hypothesis, our analyses demonstrate that polio's historical expansion was straightforwardly explained by demographic trends rather than improvements in sanitation and hygiene; and (4) the absence of clinical disease is not a reliable indicator of polio transmission, because widespread polio transmission was likely in the multiyear absence of clinical disease. As the world edges closer to global polio eradication and continues the strategic withdrawal of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV), the regular identification of, and rapid response to, these silent chains of transmission is of the utmost importance.

  10. HVDC transmission from nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yukio; Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Taniguchi, Haruto; Ueda, Kiyotaka

    1980-01-01

    HVDC transmission directly from a nuclear power plant is expected as one of the bulk power transmission systems from distant power generating area. Successively from the analysis of HVDC transmission from BWR-type nuclear power plant, this report discusses dynamic response characteristics of HVDC transmission (double poles, two circuits) from PWR type nuclear power plant due to dc-line faults (DC-1LG, 2LG) and ac-line faults (3LG) near inverter station. (author)

  11. Transmission dynamics of Bacillus thuringiensis infecting Plodia interpunctella: a test of the mass action assumption with an insect pathogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knell, R J; Begon, M; Thompson, D J

    1996-01-22

    Central to theoretical studies of host-pathogen population dynamics is a term describing transmission of the pathogen. This usually assumes that transmission is proportional to the density of infectious hosts or particles and of susceptible individuals. We tested this assumption with the bacterial pathogen Bacillus thuringiensis infecting larvae of Plodia interpunctella, the Indian meal moth. Transmission was found to increase in a more than linear way with host density in fourth and fifth instar P. interpunctella, and to decrease with the density of infectious cadavers in the case of fifth instar larvae. Food availability was shown to play an important part in this process. Therefore, on a number of counts, the usual assumption was found not to apply in our experimental system.

  12. Analysis of a malaria model with mosquito-dependent transmission ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    model for the spread of malaria in human and mosquito population. ... tures, high humidity and water bodies allow mosquito and parasites to reproduce. The ... understand the main parameters in the transmission of the disease and to develop ...

  13. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  14. Modeling the Geographic Consequence and Pattern of Dengue Fever Transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekoe, Collins; Pansombut, Tatdow; Riyapan, Pakwan; Kakchapati, Sampurna; Phon-On, Aniruth

    2017-05-04

    Dengue fever is one of the infectious diseases that is still a public health problem in Thailand. This study considers in detail, the geographic consequence, seasonal and pattern of dengue fever transmission among the 76 provinces of Thailand from 2003 to 2015. A cross-sectional study. The data for the study was from the Department of Disease Control under the Bureau of Epidemiology, Thailand. The quarterly effects and location on the transmission of dengue was modeled using an alternative additive log-linear model. The model fitted well as illustrated by the residual plots and the  Again, the model showed that dengue fever is high in the second quarter of every year from May to August. There was an evidence of an increase in the trend of dengue annually from 2003 to 2015. There was a difference in the distribution of dengue fever within and between provinces. The areas of high risks were the central and southern regions of Thailand. The log-linear model provided a simple medium of modeling dengue fever transmission. The results are very important in the geographic distribution of dengue fever patterns.

  15. Transmission-line-circuit model of an 85-TW, 25-MA pulsed-power accelerator

    OpenAIRE

    B. T. Hutsel; P. A. Corcoran; M. E. Cuneo; M. R. Gomez; M. H. Hess; D. D. Hinshelwood; C. A. Jennings; G. R. Laity; D. C. Lamppa; R. D. McBride; J. K. Moore; A. Myers; D. V. Rose; S. A. Slutz; W. A. Stygar

    2018-01-01

    We have developed a physics-based transmission-line-circuit model of the Z pulsed-power accelerator. The 33-m-diameter Z machine generates a peak electrical power as high as 85 TW, and delivers as much as 25 MA to a physics load. The circuit model is used to design and analyze experiments conducted on Z. The model consists of 36 networks of transmission-line-circuit elements and resistors that represent each of Zs 36 modules. The model of each module includes a Marx generator, intermediate-en...

  16. Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

    2018-04-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

  17. Nonlinear dynamics of avian influenza epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sanhong; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2017-01-01

    Avian influenza is a zoonotic disease caused by the transmission of the avian influenza A virus, such as H5N1 and H7N9, from birds to humans. The avian influenza A H5N1 virus has caused more than 500 human infections worldwide with nearly a 60% death rate since it was first reported in Hong Kong in 1997. The four outbreaks of the avian influenza A H7N9 in China from March 2013 to June 2016 have resulted in 580 human cases including 202 deaths with a death rate of nearly 35%. In this paper, we construct two avian influenza bird-to-human transmission models with different growth laws of the avian population, one with logistic growth and the other with Allee effect, and analyze their dynamical behavior. We obtain a threshold value for the prevalence of avian influenza and investigate the local or global asymptotical stability of each equilibrium of these systems by using linear analysis technique or combining Liapunov function method and LaSalle's invariance principle, respectively. Moreover, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of periodic solutions in the avian influenza system with Allee effect of the avian population. Numerical simulations are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

    2015-05-01

    Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. ANASEC: a model for studying the operation security of a power transmission system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batut, J; Dodu, J C [Electricite de France, 92 - Clamart

    1985-01-01

    Presently, planning studies for the EHV system are carried out using probabilistic models which allow for an assessment of the characteristic values linked to the power transmission system. Among these values, the unsupplied energy (UE) measures the performances of the system from the standpoint of service quality, whereas the availability of the system at a given moment is characterized by the unsupplied power (UP). The ANASEC model computes the mathematical expectation of the UP and UE due to transient losses of load for a fixed load point. To achieve this, the model simulates a great number of incidents liable to result in a progressive degradation of the system. Such a degradation results in the cascade tripping of transmission equipment and generation units through the interplay of protection devices and automata. This cascade tripping is due either to load transfers on the lines, or a loss of unit stability. Since 1983, the ANASEC model is used in the decision-making studies for the planning of EHV transmission systems. To the traditional components of the assets of a new transmission equipment (fuel saving and reduction in structural UE), the ANASEC model makes it possible to add its contribution to the improvement of operation security.

  20. A Transmission-Cost-Based Model to Estimate the Amount of Market-Integrable Wind Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    are made to share the expenses in transmission derived from their integration, they may see the doors of electricity markets closed for not being competitive enough. This paper presents a model to decide the amount of wind resources that are economically exploitable at a given location from a transmission......In the pursuit of the large-scale integration of wind power production, it is imperative to evaluate plausible frictions among the stochastic nature of wind generation, electricity markets, and the investments in transmission required to accommodate larger amounts of wind. If wind producers......-cost perspective. This model accounts for the uncertain character of wind by using a modeling framework based on stochastic optimization, simulates market barriers by means of a bi-level structure, and considers the financial risk of investments in transmission through the conditional value-at-risk. The major...

  1. Modeling of HVDC in Dynamic State Estimation Using Unscented Kalman Filter Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khazraj, Hesam; Silva, Filipe Miguel Faria da; Bak, Claus Leth

    2016-01-01

    HVDC transmission is an integral part of various power system networks. This article presents an Unscented Kalman Filter dynamic state estimator algorithm that considers the presence of HVDC links. The AC - DC power flow analysis, which is implemented as power flow solver for Dynamic State...

  2. Optimizing agent-based transmission models for infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willem, Lander; Stijven, Sean; Tijskens, Engelbert; Beutels, Philippe; Hens, Niel; Broeckhove, Jan

    2015-06-02

    Infectious disease modeling and computational power have evolved such that large-scale agent-based models (ABMs) have become feasible. However, the increasing hardware complexity requires adapted software designs to achieve the full potential of current high-performance workstations. We have found large performance differences with a discrete-time ABM for close-contact disease transmission due to data locality. Sorting the population according to the social contact clusters reduced simulation time by a factor of two. Data locality and model performance can also be improved by storing person attributes separately instead of using person objects. Next, decreasing the number of operations by sorting people by health status before processing disease transmission has also a large impact on model performance. Depending of the clinical attack rate, target population and computer hardware, the introduction of the sort phase decreased the run time from 26% up to more than 70%. We have investigated the application of parallel programming techniques and found that the speedup is significant but it drops quickly with the number of cores. We observed that the effect of scheduling and workload chunk size is model specific and can make a large difference. Investment in performance optimization of ABM simulator code can lead to significant run time reductions. The key steps are straightforward: the data structure for the population and sorting people on health status before effecting disease propagation. We believe these conclusions to be valid for a wide range of infectious disease ABMs. We recommend that future studies evaluate the impact of data management, algorithmic procedures and parallelization on model performance.

  3. Agent-Based Modeling of Mitochondria Links Sub-Cellular Dynamics to Cellular Homeostasis and Heterogeneity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Dalmasso

    Full Text Available Mitochondria are semi-autonomous organelles that supply energy for cellular biochemistry through oxidative phosphorylation. Within a cell, hundreds of mobile mitochondria undergo fusion and fission events to form a dynamic network. These morphological and mobility dynamics are essential for maintaining mitochondrial functional homeostasis, and alterations both impact and reflect cellular stress states. Mitochondrial homeostasis is further dependent on production (biogenesis and the removal of damaged mitochondria by selective autophagy (mitophagy. While mitochondrial function, dynamics, biogenesis and mitophagy are highly-integrated processes, it is not fully understood how systemic control in the cell is established to maintain homeostasis, or respond to bioenergetic demands. Here we used agent-based modeling (ABM to integrate molecular and imaging knowledge sets, and simulate population dynamics of mitochondria and their response to environmental energy demand. Using high-dimensional parameter searches we integrated experimentally-measured rates of mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy, and using sensitivity analysis we identified parameter influences on population homeostasis. By studying the dynamics of cellular subpopulations with distinct mitochondrial masses, our approach uncovered system properties of mitochondrial populations: (1 mitochondrial fusion and fission activities rapidly establish mitochondrial sub-population homeostasis, and total cellular levels of mitochondria alter fusion and fission activities and subpopulation distributions; (2 restricting the directionality of mitochondrial mobility does not alter morphology subpopulation distributions, but increases network transmission dynamics; and (3 maintaining mitochondrial mass homeostasis and responding to bioenergetic stress requires the integration of mitochondrial dynamics with the cellular bioenergetic state. Finally, (4 our model suggests sources of, and stress conditions

  4. Models for Dynamic Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

    2011-01-01

    This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

  5. Network flow model of force transmission in unbonded and bonded granular media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tordesillas, Antoinette; Tobin, Steven T; Cil, Mehmet; Alshibli, Khalid; Behringer, Robert P

    2015-06-01

    An established aspect of force transmission in quasistatic deformation of granular media is the existence of a dual network of strongly versus weakly loaded particles. Despite significant interest, the regulation of strong and weak forces through the contact network remains poorly understood. We examine this aspect of force transmission using data on microstructural fabric from: (I) three-dimensional discrete element models of grain agglomerates of bonded subspheres constructed from in situ synchrotron microtomography images of silica sand grains under unconfined compression and (II) two-dimensional assemblies of unbonded photoelastic circular disks submitted to biaxial compression under constant volume. We model force transmission as a network flow and solve the maximum flow-minimum cost (MFMC) problem, the solution to which yields a percolating subnetwork of contacts that transmits the "maximum flow" (i.e., the highest units of force) at "least cost" (i.e., the dissipated energy from such transmission). We find the MFMC describes a two-tier hierarchical architecture. At the local level, it encapsulates intraconnections between particles in individual force chains and in their conjoined 3-cycles, with the most common configuration having at least one force chain contact experiencing frustrated rotation. At the global level, the MFMC encapsulates interconnections between force chains. The MFMC can be used to predict most of the force chain particles without need for any information on contact forces, thereby suggesting the network flow framework may have potential broad utility in the modeling of force transmission in unbonded and bonded granular media.

  6. Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent - A Systematic Literature Review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddhivinayak Hirve

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available As Bangladesh, India and Nepal progress towards visceral leishmaniasis (VL elimination, it is important to understand the role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI, VL treatment relapse and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL in transmission.We reviewed evidence systematically on ALI, relapse and PKDL. We searched multiple databases to include studies on burden, risk factors, biomarkers, natural history, and infectiveness of ALI, PKDL and relapse. After screening 292 papers, 98 were included covering the years 1942 through 2016. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. The prevalence of ALI was 4-17-fold that of VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The proportion of ALI that progressed to VL disease within a year was 1.5-23%, and was higher amongst those with high antibody titres. The natural history of PKDL showed variability; 3.8-28.6% had no past history of VL treatment. The infectiveness of PKDL was 32-53%. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted a range of scenarios. One model predicted VL elimination was unlikely in the long term with early diagnosis. Another model estimated that ALI contributed to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. Different models predicted VL elimination if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4-6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting.There is a need for xenodiagnostic and longitudinal studies to understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.

  7. Solar radiation transmissivity of a single-span greenhouse through measurements on scale models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papadakis, G.; Manolakos, D.; Kyritsis, S.

    1998-01-01

    The solar transmissivity of a single-span greenhouse has been investigated experimentally using a scale model, of dimensions 40 cm width and 80 cm length. The solar transmissivity was measured at 48 positions on the “ground” surface of the scale model using 48 small silicon solar cells. The greenhouse model was positioned horizontally on a specially made goniometric mechanism. In this way, the greenhouse azimuth could be changed so that typical days of the year could be simulated using different combinations of greenhouse azimuth and the position of the sun in the sky. The measured solar transmissivity distribution at the “ground” surface and the average greenhouse solar transmissivity are presented and analysed, for characteristic days of the year, for winter and summer for a latitude of 37°58′ (Athens, Greece). It is shown that for the latitude of 37°58′ N during winter, the E–W orientation is preferable to the N–S one. The side walls, and especially the East and West ones for the E–W orientation, reduce considerably the greenhouse transmissivity at areas close to the walls for long periods of the day when the angle of incidence of the solar rays to these walls is large. (author)

  8. Corruption dynamics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

    2017-07-01

    The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

  9. Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

    2001-08-01

    A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

  10. A precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility model for natural gas transmission pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Jason P. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Valencia, California (United States); Slayter, David L.; Hitchcock, Chris S. [Fugro William Lettis and Associates, Inc., Walnut Creek, California (United States); Lee, Chih-Hung [Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Gas Systems Integrity Management, Walnut Creek, California (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Landslides related to heavy rainfall can cause extensive damage to natural gas transmission pipelines. Fugro William Lettis and Associates Inc. have developed and implemented a geographic information system (GIS) model that evaluates near real-time precipitation-induced landslide susceptibility. The model incorporates state-wide precipitation data and geologically-based landslide classifications to produce rapid landslide risk evaluation for Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PGandE) gas transmission system during winter rain storms in California. The precipitation data include pre-storm event quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and post-storm event quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The geologic classifications are based on slope, susceptible geologic formations, and the locations of historic or known landslide occurrences. Currently the model is calibrated using qualitative measures. This paper describes the development of the model algorithm and input data, model results, calibration efforts, and the on-going research and landslide collection warranted for continued refinement of the model.

  11. Dynamics of High-Speed Precision Geared Rotor Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lim Teik C.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Gears are one of the most widely applied precision machine elements in power transmission systems employed in automotive, aerospace, marine, rail and industrial applications because of their reliability, precision, efficiency and versatility. Fundamentally, gears provide a very practical mechanism to transmit motion and mechanical power between two rotating shafts. However, their performance and accuracy are often hampered by tooth failure, vibrations and whine noise. This is most acute in high-speed, high power density geared rotor systems, which is the primary scope of this paper. The present study focuses on the development of a gear pair mathematical model for use to analyze the dynamics of power transmission systems. The theory includes the gear mesh representation derived from results of the quasi-static tooth contact analysis. This proposed gear mesh theory comprising of transmission error, mesh point, mesh stiffness and line-of-action nonlinear, time-varying parameters can be easily incorporated into a variety of transmission system models ranging from the lumped parameter type to detailed finite element representation. The gear dynamic analysis performed led to the discovery of the out-of-phase gear pair torsion modes that are responsible for much of the mechanical problems seen in gearing applications. The paper concludes with a discussion on effectual design approaches to minimize the influence of gear dynamics and to mitigate gear failure in practical power transmission systems.

  12. Dynamic Linear Models with R

    CERN Document Server

    Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

  13. Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, J; Dürr, S; Penny, M A; Mindekem, R; Roth, F; Menendez Gonzalez, S; Naissengar, S; Hattendorf, J

    2009-09-01

    Human rabies in developing countries can be prevented through interventions directed at dogs. Potential cost-savings for the public health sector of interventions aimed at animal-host reservoirs should be assessed. Available deterministic models of rabies transmission between dogs were extended to include dog-to-human rabies transmission. Model parameters were fitted to routine weekly rabid-dog and exposed-human cases reported in N'Djaména, the capital of Chad. The estimated transmission rates between dogs (beta(d)) were 0.0807 km2/(dogs x week) and between dogs and humans (beta(dh)) 0.0002 km2/(dogs x week). The effective reproductive ratio (R(e)) at the onset of our observations was estimated at 1.01, indicating low-level endemic stability of rabies transmission. Human rabies incidence depended critically on dog-related transmission parameters. We simulated the effects of mass dog vaccination and the culling of a percentage of the dog population on human rabies incidence. A single parenteral dog rabies-mass vaccination campaign achieving a coverage of least 70% appears to be sufficient to interrupt transmission of rabies to humans for at least 6 years. The cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination was compared to postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), which is the current practice in Chad. PEP does not reduce future human exposure. Its cost-effectiveness is estimated at US $46 per disability adjusted life-years averted. Cost-effectiveness for PEP, together with a dog-vaccination campaign, breaks even with cost-effectiveness of PEP alone after almost 5 years. Beyond a time-frame of 7 years, it appears to be more cost-effective to combine parenteral dog-vaccination campaigns with human PEP compared to human PEP alone.

  14. Dynamic and impact contact mechanics of geologic materials: Grain-scale experiments and modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, David M.; Hopkins, Mark A.; Ketcham, Stephen A.

    2013-01-01

    High fidelity treatments of the generation and propagation of seismic waves in naturally occurring granular materials is becoming more practical given recent advancements in our ability to model complex particle shapes and their mechanical interaction. Of particular interest are the grain-scale processes that are activated by impact events and the characteristics of force transmission through grain contacts. To address this issue, we have developed a physics based approach that involves laboratory experiments to quantify the dynamic contact and impact behavior of granular materials and incorporation of the observed behavior indiscrete element models. The dynamic experiments do not involve particle damage and emphasis is placed on measured values of contact stiffness and frictional loss. The normal stiffness observed in dynamic contact experiments at low frequencies (e.g., 10 Hz) are shown to be in good agreement with quasistatic experiments on quartz sand. The results of impact experiments – which involve moderate to extensive levels of particle damage – are presented for several types of naturally occurring granular materials (several quartz sands, magnesite and calcium carbonate ooids). Implementation of the experimental findings in discrete element models is discussed and the results of impact simulations involving up to 5 × 105 grains are presented.

  15. Dynamic and impact contact mechanics of geologic materials: Grain-scale experiments and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, David M.; Hopkins, Mark A.; Ketcham, Stephen A. [Engineer Research and Development Center - Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 72 Lyme Rd., Hanover, NH 03755 (United States)

    2013-06-18

    High fidelity treatments of the generation and propagation of seismic waves in naturally occurring granular materials is becoming more practical given recent advancements in our ability to model complex particle shapes and their mechanical interaction. Of particular interest are the grain-scale processes that are activated by impact events and the characteristics of force transmission through grain contacts. To address this issue, we have developed a physics based approach that involves laboratory experiments to quantify the dynamic contact and impact behavior of granular materials and incorporation of the observed behavior indiscrete element models. The dynamic experiments do not involve particle damage and emphasis is placed on measured values of contact stiffness and frictional loss. The normal stiffness observed in dynamic contact experiments at low frequencies (e.g., 10 Hz) are shown to be in good agreement with quasistatic experiments on quartz sand. The results of impact experiments - which involve moderate to extensive levels of particle damage - are presented for several types of naturally occurring granular materials (several quartz sands, magnesite and calcium carbonate ooids). Implementation of the experimental findings in discrete element models is discussed and the results of impact simulations involving up to 5 Multiplication-Sign 105 grains are presented.

  16. Synchrony of sylvatic dengue isolations: a multi-host, multi-vector SIR model of dengue virus transmission in Senegal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M Althouse

    Full Text Available Isolations of sylvatic dengue-2 virus from mosquitoes, humans and non-human primates in Senegal show synchronized multi-annual dynamics over the past 50 years. Host demography has been shown to directly affect the period between epidemics in other pathogen systems, therefore, one might expect unsynchronized multi-annual cycles occurring in hosts with dramatically different birth rates and life spans. However, in Senegal, we observe a single synchronized eight-year cycle across all vector species, suggesting synchronized dynamics in all vertebrate hosts. In the current study, we aim to explore two specific hypotheses: 1 primates with different demographics will experience outbreaks of dengue at different periodicities when observed as isolated systems, and that coupling of these subsystems through mosquito biting will act to synchronize incidence; and 2 the eight-year periodicity of isolations observed across multiple primate species is the result of long-term cycling in population immunity in the host populations. To test these hypotheses, we develop a multi-host, multi-vector Susceptible, Infected, Removed (SIR model to explore the effects of coupling multiple host-vector systems of dengue virus transmission through cross-species biting rates. We find that under small amounts of coupling, incidence in the host species synchronize. Long-period multi-annual dynamics are observed only when prevalence in troughs reaches vanishingly small levels (< 10(-10, suggesting that these dynamics are inconsistent with sustained transmission in this setting, but are consistent with local dengue virus extinctions followed by reintroductions. Inclusion of a constant introduction of infectious individuals into the system causes the multi-annual periods to shrink, while the effects of coupling remain the same. Inclusion of a stochastic rate of introduction allows for multi-annual periods at a cost of reduced synchrony. Thus, we conclude that the eight-year period

  17. Validation of a Polyimide Foam Model for Use in Transmission Loss Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Kwanwoo; Bolton, J. Stuart; Cano, Roberto J.; Weiser, Erik S.; Jensen, Brian J.; Silcox, Rich; Howerton, Brian M.; Maxon, John; Wang, Tongan; Lorenzi, Tyler

    2010-01-01

    The work described in this paper was focused on the use of a new polyimide foam in a double wall sound transmission loss application. Recall that polyimide foams are functionally attractive, compared to polyurethane foams, for example, owing to their fire resistance. The foam considered here was found to have a flow resistivity that was too high for conventional acoustical applications, and as a result, it was processed by partial crushing to lower the flow resistivity into an acceptable range. Procedures for measuring the flow resistivity and Young s modulus of the material have been described, as was an inverse characterization procedure for estimating the remaining Biot parameters based on standing wave tube measurements of transmission loss and absorption coefficient. The inverse characterization was performed using a finite element model implementation of the Biot poro-elastic material theory. Those parameters were then used to predict the sound transmission loss of a double panel system lined with polyimide foam, and the predictions were compared with full-scale transmission loss measurements. The agreement between the two was reasonable, especially in the high and low frequency limits; however, it was found that the SEA model resulted in an under-prediction of the transmission loss in the mid-frequency range. Nonetheless, it was concluded that the performance of polyimide foam could be predicted using conventional poro-elastic material models and that polyimide foam may offer an attractive alternative to other double wall linings in certain situations: e.g., when fire resistance is a key issue. Future work will concentrate on reducing the density of the foam to values similar to those used in current aircraft sidewall treatments, and developing procedures to improve the performance of the foam in transmission loss applications.

  18. Transmission Line Ampacity Improvements of AltaLink Wind Plant Overhead Tie-Lines Using Weather-Based Dynamic Line Rating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhattarai, Bishnu P.; Gentle, Jake P.; Hill, Porter; McJunkin, Tim; Myers, Kurt S.; Abbound, Alex; Renwick, Rodger; Hengst, David

    2017-07-01

    Abstract—Overhead transmission lines (TLs) are conventionally given seasonal ratings based on conservative environmental assumptions. Such an approach often results in underutilization of the line ampacity as the worst conditions prevail only for a short period over a year/season. We presents dynamic line rating (DLR) as an enabling smart grid technology that adaptively computes ratings of TLs based on local weather conditions to utilize additional headroom of existing lines. In particular, general line ampacity state solver utilizes measured weather data for computing the real-time thermal rating of the TLs. The performance of the presented method is demonstrated from a field study of DLR technology implementation on four TL segments at AltaLink, Canada. The performance is evaluated and quantified by comparing the existing static and proposed dynamic line ratings, and the potential benefits of DLR for enhanced transmission assets utilization. For the given line segments, the proposed DLR results in real-time ratings above the seasonal static ratings for most of the time; up to 95.1% of the time, with a mean increase of 72% over static rating.

  19. Modeling and Density Estimation of an Urban Freeway Network Based on Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangzhou; Guo, Yuqi; Wang, Ying

    2017-03-29

    In this paper, in order to describe complex network systems, we firstly propose a general modeling framework by combining a dynamic graph with hybrid automata and thus name it Dynamic Graph Hybrid Automata (DGHA). Then we apply this framework to model traffic flow over an urban freeway network by embedding the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) into the DGHA. With a modeling procedure, we adopt a dual digraph of road network structure to describe the road topology, use linear hybrid automata to describe multi-modes of dynamic densities in road segments and transform the nonlinear expressions of the transmitted traffic flow between two road segments into piecewise linear functions in terms of multi-mode switchings. This modeling procedure is modularized and rule-based, and thus is easily-extensible with the help of a combination algorithm for the dynamics of traffic flow. It can describe the dynamics of traffic flow over an urban freeway network with arbitrary topology structures and sizes. Next we analyze mode types and number in the model of the whole freeway network, and deduce a Piecewise Affine Linear System (PWALS) model. Furthermore, based on the PWALS model, a multi-mode switched state observer is designed to estimate the traffic densities of the freeway network, where a set of observer gain matrices are computed by using the Lyapunov function approach. As an example, we utilize the PWALS model and the corresponding switched state observer to traffic flow over Beijing third ring road. In order to clearly interpret the principle of the proposed method and avoid computational complexity, we adopt a simplified version of Beijing third ring road. Practical application for a large-scale road network will be implemented by decentralized modeling approach and distributed observer designing in the future research.

  20. Method of modeling transmissions for real-time simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebbale, Kumaraswamy V.

    2012-09-25

    A transmission modeling system includes an in-gear module that determines an in-gear acceleration when a vehicle is in gear. A shift module determines a shift acceleration based on a clutch torque when the vehicle is shifting between gears. A shaft acceleration determination module determines a shaft acceleration based on at least one of the in-gear acceleration and the shift acceleration.

  1. Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

  2. Some Experimental and Simulation Results on the Dynamic Behaviour of Spur and Helical Geared Transmissions with Journal Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fargère

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Some interactions between the dynamic and tribological behaviour of geared transmissions are examined, and a number of experimental and simulation results are compared. A model is introduced which incorporates most of the possible interactions between gears, shafts and hydrodynamic journal bearings. It combines (i a specific element for wide-faced gears that includes the normal contact conditions between actual mating teeth, that is, with tooth shape deviations and mounting errors, (ii shaft finite elements, and (iii the external forces generated by journal bearings determined by directly solving Reynolds' equation. The simulation results are compared with the measurement obtained on a high-precision test rig with single-stage spur and helical gears supported by hydrodynamic journal bearings. The experimental and simulation results compare well thus validating the simulation strategy both at the global and local scales.

  3. ECRH transmission system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tancredi, J.

    1983-01-01

    Hughes, Electron Dynamics Division is developing gyrotrons for ECRH requirements. In the development program, techniques have been evolved for transmission system components. These techniques include over-moded waveguide tapers, high average power windows, and rf water loads for testing

  4. Design, control and application of modular multilevel converters for HVDC transmission systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sharifabadi, Kamran; Nee, Hans-Peter; Norrga, Staffan; Teodorescu, Remus

    2016-01-01

    Design, Control and Application of Modular Multilevel Converters for HVDC Transmission Systems is a comprehensive guide to semiconductor technologies applicable for MMC design, component sizing control, modulation, and application of the MMC technology for HVDC transmission. Separated into three distinct parts, the first offers an overview of MMC technology, including information on converter component sizing, Control and Communication, Protection and Fault Management, and Generic Modelling and Simulation. The second covers the applications of MMC in offshore WPP, including planning, technical and economic requirements and optimization options, fault management, dynamic and transient stability. Finally, the third chapter explores the applications of MMC in HVDC transmission and Multi Terminal configurations, including Supergrids.

  5. Incorporation of a Wind Generator Model into a Dynamic Power Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angeles-Camacho C.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy is nowadays one of the most cost-effective and practical options for electric generation from renewable resources. However, increased penetration of wind generation causes the power networks to be more depend on, and vulnerable to, the varying wind speed. Modeling is a tool which can provide valuable information about the interaction between wind farms and the power network to which they are connected. This paper develops a realistic characterization of a wind generator. The wind generator model is incorporated into an algorithm to investigate its contribution to the stability of the power network in the time domain. The tool obtained is termed dynamic power flow. The wind generator model takes on account the wind speed and the reactive power consumption by induction generators. Dynamic power flow analysis is carried-out using real wind data at 10-minute time intervals collected for one meteorological station. The generation injected at one point into the network provides active power locally and is found to reduce global power losses. However, the power supplied is time-varying and causes fluctuations in voltage magnitude and power fl ows in transmission lines.

  6. The global dynamics for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yiliang; Wen, Buyu; Teng, Zhidong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior for a stochastic SIS epidemic model with isolation which is as an important strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. It is assumed that the stochastic effects manifest themselves mainly as fluctuation in the transmission coefficient, the death rate and the proportional coefficient of the isolation of infective. It is shown that the extinction and persistence in the mean of the model are determined by a threshold value R0S . That is, if R0S 1, then the disease is stochastic persistent in the means with probability one. Furthermore, the existence of a unique stationary distribution is discussed, and the sufficient conditions are established by using the Lyapunov function method. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  7. HVDC transmission from isorated nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Takasaki, Masahiro; Ichikawa, Tatemi; Hayashi, Toshiyuki

    1985-01-01

    HVDC transmission directly from nuclear power plant is considered as one of the patterns of long distance and large capacity transmission system. This reports considers two route HVDC transmission from PWR type nuclear power plant, and analyzes dynamic response characteristics due to bus fault, main protection failure and etc. using the AC-DC Power System Simulator. (author)

  8. Mathematical modeling of diphtheria transmission in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornbundit, Kan; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin

    2017-08-01

    In this work, a mathematical model for describing diphtheria transmission in Thailand is proposed. Based on the course of diphtheria infection, the population is divided into 8 epidemiological classes, namely, susceptible, symptomatic infectious, asymptomatic infectious, carrier with full natural-acquired immunity, carrier with partial natural-acquired immunity, individual with full vaccine-induced immunity, and individual with partial vaccine-induced immunity. Parameter values in the model were either directly obtained from the literature, estimated from available data, or estimated by means of sensitivity analysis. Numerical solutions show that our model can correctly describe the decreasing trend of diphtheria cases in Thailand during the years 1977-2014. Furthermore, despite Thailand having high DTP vaccine coverage, our model predicts that there will be diphtheria outbreaks after the year 2014 due to waning immunity. Our model also suggests that providing booster doses to some susceptible individuals and those with partial immunity every 10 years is a potential way to inhibit future diphtheria outbreaks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system considering the flash temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Xiangfeng; Zhu, Lingyun; Qi, Changjun

    2017-12-01

    The instantaneous flash temperature is an important factor for gears in service. To investigate the effect of the flash temperature of a tooth surface on the dynamics of the spur gear system, a modified nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system is established. The factors such as the contact temperature of the tooth surface, time-varying stiffness, tooth surface friction, backlash, the comprehensive transmission error and so on are considered. The flash temperature of a tooth surface of pinion and gear is formulated according to Blok's flash temperature theory. The mathematical expression of the contact temperature of the tooth surface varied with time is derived and the tooth profile deformation caused by the change of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is calculated. The expression of the mesh stiffness varied with the flash temperature of the tooth surface is derived based on Hertz contact theory. The temperature stiffness is proposed and added to the nonlinear dynamic model of the system. The influence of load on the flash temperature of the tooth surface is analyzed in the parameters plane. The variation of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is studied. The numerical results indicate that the calculated method of the flash temperature of the gear tooth surface is effective and it can reflect the rules for the change of gear meshing temperature and sliding of the gear tooth surface. The effects of frequency, backlash, bearing clearance, comprehensive transmission error and time-varying stiffness on the nonlinear dynamics of the system are analyzed according to the bifurcation diagrams, Top Lyapunov Exponent (TLE) spectrums, phase portraits and Poincaré maps. Some nonlinear phenomena such as periodic bifurcation, grazing bifurcation, quasi-periodic bifurcation, chaos and its routes to chaos are investigated and the critical parameters are identified. The results provide an understanding of the system and serve as a useful reference

  10. A stable high-speed rotational transmission system based on nanotubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Kun; Yin, Hang; Wei, Ning; Chen, Zhen; Shi, Jiao

    2015-01-01

    A stable rotational transmission system is designed with a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT)-based motor and double-walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs)-based bearing. The system response is investigated using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. It is found that the rotating motor can actuate the rotation of the inner tube in bearing because of the attraction between the two adjacent coaxial ends of motor and rotor (the inner tube in bearing). To have a stable nanostructure, each carbon atom on the adjacent ends of motor and rotor is bonded with a hydrogen atom. To obtain a stable high-speed rotational transmission system, both an armchair and a zigzag model are used in MD simulation. In each model, the motor with different diameters and rotational speeds is employed to examine the rotational transmission of corresponding DWCNTs. It is demonstrated that the long range van der Waals interaction between the adjacent ends of motor and rotor leads to a stable configuration of the adjacent ends, and further leads to a stable rotation of rotor when driven by a high-speed motor. As compared with the armchair model, the rotor in the zigzag model could reach a stable rotation mode much easier

  11. Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lemieux-Mellouki

    2017-12-01

    Conclusions: Modelling genital-site only transmission may overestimate vaccination impact if extragenital infections contribute to systemic natural immunity or underestimate vaccination impact if a high proportion of genital infections originate from extragenital infections. Under current understanding of heterosexual HPV transmission and immunity, a substantial bias from using uni-site models in predicting vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV infection is unlikely to occur.

  12. MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM AND TVP-VAR MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ROŞOIU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of monetary policy to the economy is a subject of major importance for central banks because, by using these measures, central banks can achieve their purpose of ensuring price stability without neglecting the objective of sustainable economic growth. In order to analyze the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Romania, a time varying structural vector autoregression model is estimated, by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the posterior evolution. The conclusions of the empirical study are: both systematic and non-systematic monetary policy have changed during the investigated period of time, the systematic response of the interest rate to shocks in inflation and unemployment being faster over the recent period. Also, non-policy shocks seem more important than interest rate shocks in explaining inflation and unemployment evolution.

  13. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Scrub Typhus Transmission in Mainland China, 2006-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yi-Cheng; Qian, Quan; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo J; Han, Zhi-Hai; Hu, Wen-Biao; Haque, Ubydul; Weppelmann, Thomas A; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yun-Xi; Li, Xin-Lou; Sun, Hai-Long; Sun, Yan-Song; Clements, Archie C A; Li, Shen-Long; Zhang, Wen-Yi

    2016-08-01

    Scrub typhus is endemic in the Asia-Pacific region including China, and the number of reported cases has increased dramatically in the past decade. However, the spatial-temporal dynamics and the potential risk factors in transmission of scrub typhus in mainland China have yet to be characterized. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported scrub typhus cases in mainland China between January 2006 and December 2014, to detect the location of high risk spatiotemporal clusters of scrub typhus cases, and identify the potential risk factors affecting the re-emergence of the disease. Monthly cases of scrub typhus reported at the county level between 2006 and 2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention. Time-series analyses, spatiotemporal cluster analyses, and spatial scan statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the scrub typhus incidence. To explore the association between scrub typhus incidence and environmental variables panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted. During the time period between 2006 and 2014 a total of 54,558 scrub typhus cases were reported in mainland China, which grew exponentially. The majority of cases were reported each year between July and November, with peak incidence during October every year. The spatiotemporal dynamics of scrub typhus varied over the study period with high-risk clusters identified in southwest, southern, and middle-eastern part of China. Scrub typhus incidence was positively correlated with the percentage of shrub and meteorological variables including temperature and precipitation. The results of this study demonstrate areas in China that could be targeted with public health interventions to mitigate the growing threat of scrub typhus in the country.

  14. Stochastic Modeling of Direct Radiation Transmission in Particle-Laden Turbulent Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banko, Andrew; Villafane, Laura; Kim, Ji Hoon; Esmaily Moghadam, Mahdi; Eaton, John K.

    2017-11-01

    Direct radiation transmission in turbulent flows laden with heavy particles plays a fundamental role in systems such as clouds, spray combustors, and particle-solar-receivers. Owing to their inertia, the particles preferentially concentrate and the resulting voids and clusters lead to deviations in mean transmission from the classical Beer-Lambert law for exponential extinction. Additionally, the transmission fluctuations can exceed those of Poissonian media by an order of magnitude, which implies a gross misprediction in transmission statistics if the correlations in particle positions are neglected. On the other hand, tracking millions of particles in a turbulence simulation can be prohibitively expensive. This work presents stochastic processes as computationally cheap reduced order models for the instantaneous particle number density field and radiation transmission therein. Results from the stochastic processes are compared to Monte Carlo Ray Tracing (MCRT) simulations using the particle positions obtained from the point-particle DNS of isotropic turbulence at a Taylor Reynolds number of 150. Accurate transmission statistics are predicted with respect to MCRT by matching the mean, variance, and correlation length of DNS number density fields. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-NA0002373-1 and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DGE-114747.

  15. Modelling the role of transmission companies in the downstream European gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boots, M.A.; Rijkers, F.A.M.

    2000-07-01

    This paper describes the empirical model GASTALE and shows several analyses of the European gas market using this model. These analyses are mainly focused on the role of the downstream transmission companies. Producers of natural gas are assumed to form an oligopoly throughout the paper. Considering an oligopolistic transmission structure our model results show that the level of transmitters' profits strongly depends on the possibilities of discrimination on the border prices. If price discrimination by producers is allowed, these producers collect the main part of the margins on end-use prices. Without price discrimination the transmission companies collect most of the margins. Assuming an oligopolistic downstream structure, end-use prices converge to prices corresponding to perfect competition when the number of transmitters increases. Given the oligopolistic structure of the upstream industry, it is of importance to prevent (or abolish) monopolistic structures in the downstream gas market. In the case where oligopolistic competition between downstream gas companies cannot be prevented, vertical integration should be supported (or at least not be discouraged). 14 refs

  16. Elucidating transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for rodent-borne Bartonella spp. in Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara E. Brook

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Bartonella spp. are erythrocytic bacteria transmitted via arthropod vectors, which infect a broad range of vertebrate hosts, including humans. We investigated transmission dynamics and host-parasite-vector relationships for potentially zoonotic Bartonella spp. in invasive Rattus rattus hosts and associated arthropod ectoparasites in Madagascar. We identified five distinct species of Bartonella (B. elizabethae 1, B. elizabethae 2, B. phoceensis 1, B. rattimassiliensis 1, and B. tribocorum 1 infecting R. rattus rodents and their ectoparasites. We fit standard epidemiological models to species-specific age-prevalence data for the four Bartonella spp. with sufficient data, thus quantifying age-structured force of infection. Known zoonotic agents, B. elizabethae 1 and 2, were best described by models exhibiting high forces of infection in early age class individuals and allowing for recovery from infection, while B. phoceensis 1 and B. rattimassiliensis 1 were best fit by models of lifelong infection without recovery and substantially lower forces of infection. Nested sequences of B. elizabethae 1 and 2 were recovered from rodent hosts and their Synopsyllus fonquerniei and Xenopsylla cheopsis fleas, with a particularly high prevalence in the outdoor-dwelling, highland-endemic S. fonquerniei. These findings expand on force of infection analyses to elucidate the ecological niche of the zoonotic Bartonella elizabethae complex in Madagascar, hinting at a potential vector role for S. fonquerniei. Our analyses underscore the uniqueness of such ecologies for Bartonella species, which pose a variable range of potential zoonotic threats.

  17. A rumor transmission model with incubation in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jianwen; Wu, Wenjiang

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a rumor transmission model with incubation period and constant recruitment in social networks. By carrying out an analysis of the model, we study the stability of rumor-free equilibrium and come to the local stable condition of the rumor equilibrium. We use the geometric approach for ordinary differential equations for showing the global stability of the rumor equilibrium. And when ℜ0 = 1, the new model occurs a transcritical bifurcation. Furthermore, numerical simulations are used to support the analysis. At last, some conclusions are presented.

  18. Research on Dynamic Coupled Characteristics of A Tracked Vehicle Gearbox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Liu

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A tracked vehicle gearbox is divided into two subsystems-housing and gear train. Dynamic behaviors of the two subsystems are coupled practically. And the coupled characteristics describe the integrative dynamic behaviors of gearbox. This study proposes a coupled simulation model to investigate the interrelationship between dynamics of two subsystems. Multi-source excitations are numerically calculated to provide boundary conditions. The flexibility of transmission shafts and housing is mathematically described based on mode superposition. The coupled dynamic characteristics are analyzed with dynamics simulation computation. The flexibility of housing is one of the main causes to induce the fluctuation of dynamic responses of transmission shafts. The experimental results show that the proposed method is accurate through comparison of simulation results and test data.

  19. Understanding dynamics of information transmission in Drosophila melanogaster using a statistical modeling framework for longitudinal network data (the RSiena package

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian ePasquaretta

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Social learning – the transmission of behaviors through observation or interaction with conspecifics – can be viewed as a decision-making process driven by interactions among individuals. Animal group structures change over time and interactions among individuals occur in particular orders that may be repeated following specific patterns, change in their nature, or disappear completely. Here we used a stochastic actor-oriented model built using the RSiena package in R to estimate individual behaviors and their changes through time, by analyzing the dynamic of the interaction network of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster during social learning experiments. In particular, we re-analyzed an experimental dataset where uninformed flies, left free to interact with informed ones, acquired and later used information about oviposition site choice obtained by social interactions. We estimated the degree to which the uninformed flies had successfully acquired the information carried by informed individuals using the proportion of eggs laid by uninformed flies on the medium their conspecifics had been trained to favor. Regardless of the degree of information acquisition measured in uninformed individuals, they always received and started interactions more frequently than informed ones did. However, information was efficiently transmitted (i.e. uninformed flies predominantly laid eggs on the same medium informed ones had learn to prefer only when the difference in contacts sent between the two fly types was small. Interestingly, we found that the degree of reciprocation, the tendency of individuals to form mutual connections between each other, strongly affected oviposition site choice in uninformed flies. This work highlights the great potential of RSiena and its utility in the studies of interaction networks among non-human animals.

  20. The impact of migration and antimicrobial resistance on the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever in Kathmandu, Nepal: A mathematical modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Neil J; Bowles, Cayley C; Grenfell, Bryan T; Basnyat, Buddha; Arjyal, Amit; Dongol, Sabina; Karkey, Abhilasha; Baker, Stephen; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2017-05-01

    A substantial proportion of the global burden of typhoid fever occurs in South Asia. Kathmandu, Nepal experienced a substantial increase in the number of typhoid fever cases (caused by Salmonella Typhi) between 2000 and 2003, which subsequently declined but to a higher endemic level than in 2000. This epidemic of S. Typhi coincided with an increase in organisms with reduced susceptibility against fluoroquinolones, the emergence of S. Typhi H58, and an increase in the migratory population in Kathmandu. We devised a mathematical model to investigate the potential epidemic drivers of typhoid in Kathmandu and fit this model to weekly data of S. Typhi cases between April 1997 and June 2011 and the age distribution of S. Typhi cases. We used this model to determine if the typhoid epidemic in Kathmandu was driven by heightened migration, the emergence of organisms with reduced susceptibility against fluoroquinolones or a combination of these factors. Models allowing for the migration of susceptible individuals into Kathmandu alone or in combination with the emergence of S. Typhi with reduced susceptibility against fluoroquinolones provided a good fit for the data. The emergence of organisms with reduced susceptibility against fluoroquinolones organisms alone, either through an increase in disease duration or increased transmission, did not fully explain the pattern of S. Typhi infections. Our analysis is consistent with the hypothesis that the increase in typhoid fever in Kathmandu was associated with the migration of susceptible individuals into the city and aided by the emergence of reduced susceptibility against fluoroquinolones. These data support identifying and targeting migrant populations with typhoid immunization programmes to prevent transmission and disease.

  1. Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Karen M; Haldeman, Kristin; Lehnig, Chris; Munayco, Cesar V; Halsey, Eric S; Laguna-Torres, V Alberto; Yagui, Martín; Morrison, Amy C; Lin, Chii-Dean; Scott, Thomas W

    2015-01-01

    Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather. We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5-100% at 1°C x 2

  2. Weather Regulates Location, Timing, and Intensity of Dengue Virus Transmission between Humans and Mosquitoes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen M Campbell

    Full Text Available Dengue is one of the most aggressively expanding mosquito-transmitted viruses. The human burden approaches 400 million infections annually. Complex transmission dynamics pose challenges for predicting location, timing, and magnitude of risk; thus, models are needed to guide prevention strategies and policy development locally and globally. Weather regulates transmission-potential via its effects on vector dynamics. An important gap in understanding risk and roadblock in model development is an empirical perspective clarifying how weather impacts transmission in diverse ecological settings. We sought to determine if location, timing, and potential-intensity of transmission are systematically defined by weather.We developed a high-resolution empirical profile of the local weather-disease connection across Peru, a country with considerable ecological diversity. Applying 2-dimensional weather-space that pairs temperature versus humidity, we mapped local transmission-potential in weather-space by week during 1994-2012. A binary classification-tree was developed to test whether weather data could classify 1828 Peruvian districts as positive/negative for transmission and into ranks of transmission-potential with respect to observed disease. We show that transmission-potential is regulated by temperature-humidity coupling, enabling epidemics in a limited area of weather-space. Duration within a specific temperature range defines transmission-potential that is amplified exponentially in higher humidity. Dengue-positive districts were identified by mean temperature >22°C for 7+ weeks and minimum temperature >14°C for 33+ weeks annually with 95% sensitivity and specificity. In elevated-risk locations, seasonal peak-incidence occurred when mean temperature was 26-29°C, coincident with humidity at its local maximum; highest incidence when humidity >80%. We profile transmission-potential in weather-space for temperature-humidity ranging 0-38°C and 5

  3. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewnard, Joseph A.; Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L.; Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; Altice, Frederick L.; Bawo, Luke; Nyenswah, Tolbert G.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2014-01-01

    Background A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD Treatment Centers (ETCs); case ascertainment through contact tracing; and household protective kit allocation. Methods We developed a transmission model of Ebola virus that we fitted to reported EVD cases and deaths in Montserrado County, Liberia. We used this model to evaluate effectiveness of expanding ETCs, improving case ascertainment, and allocating protective kits for controlling the outbreak in Montserrado. Findings We estimated the basic reproductive number for EVD in Montserrado to be 2·49 [2·38–2·60]. We expect that allocating 4,800 additional ETC beds and increasing case ascertainment fivefold in November can avert 77312 [68400–85870] cases relative to the status quo by 15 December. Complementing these measures with protective kit allocation increases the expectation as high as 97940 [90096–105606] cases. If deployed by 15 October, equivalent interventions would have been expected to avert 137432 [129736–145874] cases. If delayed to 15 November, we expect the interventions will at best avert 53957 [49963–60490] cases. Interpretation The number of ETC beds needed to effectively control EVD in Montserrado substantially exceeds the total pledged by the United States to West Africa. Accelerated case ascertainment is required to maximize effectiveness of expanding ETC capacity. Distributing protective kits can further augment EVD prevention. Our findings highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of EVD cases and deaths. Funding NIH: U01-GM087719, U01-GM105627, K24-DA017072 PMID:25455986

  4. Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

  5. Design and dynamic simulation of a fixed pitch 56 kW wind turbine drive train with a continuously variable transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, C.; Kasuba, R.; Pintz, A.; Spring, J.

    1986-01-01

    The dynamic analysis of a horizontal axis fixed pitch wind turbine generator (WTG) rated at 56 kW is discussed. A mechanical Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT) was incorporated in the drive train to provide variable speed operation capability. One goal of the dynamic analysis was to determine if variable speed operation, by means of a mechanical CVT, is capable of capturing the transient power in the WTG/wind environment. Another goal was to determine the extent of power regulation possible with CVT operation.

  6. Modeling transmission parameters of polymer microstructured fibers for applications in FTTH networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gdula, P.; Welikow, K.; Szczepański, P.; Buczyński, R.; Piramidowicz, R.

    2011-10-01

    This paper is focused on selected aspects of designing and modeling of transmission parameters of plastic optical fibers (POFs), considered in the context of their potential applications in optical access networks and, specifically, in Fiber-To- The-Home (FTTH) systems. The survey of state-of-the-art solutions is presented and possibility of improving transmission properties of POFs by microstructurization is discussed on the basis of the first results of numerical modeling. In particular, the microstructured POF was designed supporting propagation of limited number of modes while keeping relatively large mode area and, simultaneously, significantly lowered bending losses.

  7. Modeling the spatio-temporal dynamics of porcine reproductive & respiratory syndrome cases at farm level using geographical distance and pig trade network matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Polson, Dale; Main, Rodger; Lee, Kyuyoung; Holtkamp, Derald; Martínez-López, Beatriz

    2017-06-07

    Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is one of the most economically devastating infectious diseases for the swine industry. A better understanding of the disease dynamics and the transmission pathways under diverse epidemiological scenarios is a key for the successful PRRS control and elimination in endemic settings. In this paper we used a two step parameter-driven (PD) Bayesian approach to model the spatio-temporal dynamics of PRRS and predict the PRRS status on farm in subsequent time periods in an endemic setting in the US. For such purpose we used information from a production system with 124 pig sites that reported 237 PRRS cases from 2012 to 2015 and from which the pig trade network and geographical location of farms (i.e., distance was used as a proxy of airborne transmission) was available. We estimated five PD models with different weights namely: (i) geographical distance weight which contains the inverse distance between each pair of farms in kilometers, (ii) pig trade weight (PT ji ) which contains the absolute number of pig movements between each pair of farms, (iii) the product between the distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, (iv) the product between the standardized distance weight and the standardized relative pig trade weight, and (v) the product of the distance weight and the pig trade weight. The model that included the pig trade weight matrix provided the best fit to model the dynamics of PRRS cases on a 6-month basis from 2012 to 2015 and was able to predict PRRS outbreaks in the subsequent time period with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.88 and the accuracy of 85% (105/124). The result of this study reinforces the importance of pig trade in PRRS transmission in the US. Methods and results of this study may be easily adapted to any production system to characterize the PRRS dynamics under diverse epidemic settings to more timely support decision-making.

  8. Dynamic accelerator modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, Hiroshi.

    1993-05-01

    Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

  9. Quantifying Transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolhouse, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Transmissibility is the defining characteristic of infectious diseases. Quantifying transmission matters for understanding infectious disease epidemiology and designing evidence-based disease control programs. Tracing individual transmission events can be achieved by epidemiological investigation coupled with pathogen typing or genome sequencing. Individual infectiousness can be estimated by measuring pathogen loads, but few studies have directly estimated the ability of infected hosts to transmit to uninfected hosts. Individuals' opportunities to transmit infection are dependent on behavioral and other risk factors relevant given the transmission route of the pathogen concerned. Transmission at the population level can be quantified through knowledge of risk factors in the population or phylogeographic analysis of pathogen sequence data. Mathematical model-based approaches require estimation of the per capita transmission rate and basic reproduction number, obtained by fitting models to case data and/or analysis of pathogen sequence data. Heterogeneities in infectiousness, contact behavior, and susceptibility can have substantial effects on the epidemiology of an infectious disease, so estimates of only mean values may be insufficient. For some pathogens, super-shedders (infected individuals who are highly infectious) and super-spreaders (individuals with more opportunities to transmit infection) may be important. Future work on quantifying transmission should involve integrated analyses of multiple data sources.

  10. Zika virus transmission to mouse ear by mosquito bite: a laboratory model that replicates the natural transmission process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secundino, Nagila Francinete Costa; Chaves, Barbara Aparecida; Orfano, Alessandra Silva; Silveira, Karine Renata Dias; Rodrigues, Nilton Barnabe; Campolina, Thais Bonifácio; Nacif-Pimenta, Rafael; Villegas, Luiz Eduardo Martinez; Silva, Breno Melo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Norris, Douglas Eric; Pimenta, Paulo Filemon Paolucci

    2017-07-20

    Zika disease has transformed into a serious global health problem due to the rapid spread of the arbovirus and alarming severity including congenital complications, microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted to humans through the bite of an infective mosquito, with Aedes aegypti being the main vector. We successfully developed a ZIKV experimental transmission model by single infectious Ae. aegypti bite to a laboratory mouse using circulating Brazilian strains of both arbovirus and vector. Mosquitoes were orally infected and single Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed on mouse ears 14 days post-infection. Additionally, salivary gland (SG) homogenates from infected mosquitoes were intrathoracically inoculated into naïve Ae. aegypti. Mosquito and mouse tissue samples were cultured in C6/36 cells and processed by quantitative real-time PCR. A total of 26 Ae. aegypti were allowed to feed individually on mouse ears. Of these, 17 mosquitoes fed, all to full engorgement. The transmission rate of ZIKV by bite from these engorged mosquitoes to mouse ears was 100%. The amount of virus inoculated into the ears by bites ranged from 2 × 10 2 -2.1 × 10 10 ZIKV cDNA copies and was positively correlated with ZIKV cDNA quantified from SGs dissected from mosquitoes post-feeding. Replicating ZIKV was confirmed in macerated SGs (2.45 × 10 7 cDNA copies), mouse ear tissue (1.15 × 10 3 cDNA copies, and mosquitoes 14 days post-intrathoracic inoculation (1.49 × 10 7 cDNA copies) by cytopathic effect in C6/36 cell culture and qPCR. Our model illustrates successful transmission of ZIKV by an infectious mosquito bite to a live vertebrate host. This approach offers a comprehensive tool for evaluating the development of infection in and transmission from mosquitoes, and the vertebrate-ZIKV interaction and progression of infection following a natural transmission process.

  11. Dynamic restoration mechanism and physically based constitutive model of 2050 Al–Li alloy during hot compression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Ruihua; Liu, Qing [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Li, Jinfeng, E-mail: lijinfeng@csu.edu.cn [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Xiang, Sheng [School of Materials Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083 (China); Chen, Yonglai; Zhang, Xuhu [Aerospace Research Institute of Materials and Processing Technology, Beijing 100076 (China)

    2015-11-25

    Dynamic restoration mechanism of 2050 Al–Li alloy and its constitutive model were investigated by means of hot compression simulation in the deformation temperature ranging from 340 to 500 °C and at strain rates of 0.001–10 s{sup −1}. The microstructures of the compressed samples were observed using optical microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. On the base of dislocation density theory and Avrami kinetics, a physically based constitutive model was established. The results show that dynamic recovery (DRV) and dynamic recrystallization (DRX) are co-responsible for the dynamic restoration during the hot compression process under all compression conditions. The dynamic precipitation (DPN) of T1 and σ phases was observed after the deformation at 340 °C. This is the first experimental evidence for the DPN of σ phase in Al–Cu–Li alloys. The particle stimulated nucleation of DRX (PSN-DRX) due to the large Al–Cu–Mn particle was also observed. The error analysis suggests that the established constitutive model can adequately describe the flow stress dependence on strain rate, temperature and strain during the hot deformation process. - Highlights: • The experimental evidence for the DPN of σ phase in Al–Cu–Li alloys was found. • The PSN-DRX due to the large Al–Cu–Mn particle was observed. • A novel method was proposed to calculated the stress multiplier α.

  12. Dynamic Modelling Of A SCARA Robot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turiel, J. Perez; Calleja, R. Grossi; Diez, V. Gutierrez

    1987-10-01

    This paper describes a method for modelling industrial robots that considers dynamic approach to manipulation systems motion generation, obtaining the complete dynamic model for the mechanic part of the robot and taking into account the dynamic effect of actuators acting at the joints. For a four degree of freedom SCARA robot we obtain the dynamic model for the basic (minimal) configuration, that is, the three degrees of freedom that allow us to place the robot end effector in a desired point, using the Lagrange Method to obtain the dynamic equations in matrix form. The manipulator is considered to be a set of rigid bodies inter-connected by joints in the form of simple kinematic pairs. Then, the state space model is obtained for the actuators that move the robot joints, uniting the models of the single actuators, that is, two DC permanent magnet servomotors and an electrohydraulic actuator. Finally, using a computer simulation program written in FORTRAN language, we can compute the matrices of the complete model.

  13. A Hierarchical Modeling for Reactive Power Optimization With Joint Transmission and Distribution Networks by Curve Fitting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can

    2018-01-01

    –slave structure and improves traditional centralized modeling methods by alleviating the big data problem in a control center. Specifically, the transmission-distribution-network coordination issue of the hierarchical modeling method is investigated. First, a curve-fitting approach is developed to provide a cost......In order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master...... optimality. Numerical results on two test systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical modeling and curve-fitting methods....

  14. Transmission-line-circuit model of an 85-TW, 25-MA pulsed-power accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutsel, B. T.; Corcoran, P. A.; Cuneo, M. E.; Gomez, M. R.; Hess, M. H.; Hinshelwood, D. D.; Jennings, C. A.; Laity, G. R.; Lamppa, D. C.; McBride, R. D.; Moore, J. K.; Myers, A.; Rose, D. V.; Slutz, S. A.; Stygar, W. A.; Waisman, E. M.; Welch, D. R.; Whitney, B. A.

    2018-03-01

    We have developed a physics-based transmission-line-circuit model of the Z pulsed-power accelerator. The 33-m-diameter Z machine generates a peak electrical power as high as 85 TW, and delivers as much as 25 MA to a physics load. The circuit model is used to design and analyze experiments conducted on Z. The model consists of 36 networks of transmission-line-circuit elements and resistors that represent each of Zs 36 modules. The model of each module includes a Marx generator, intermediate-energy-storage capacitor, laser-triggered gas switch, pulse-forming line, self-break water switches, and tri-plate transmission lines. The circuit model also includes elements that represent Zs water convolute, vacuum insulator stack, four parallel outer magnetically insulated vacuum transmission lines (MITLs), double-post-hole vacuum convolute, inner vacuum MITL, and physics load. Within the vacuum-transmission-line system the model conducts analytic calculations of current loss. To calculate the loss, the model simulates the following processes: (i) electron emission from MITL cathode surfaces wherever an electric-field threshold has been exceeded; (ii) electron loss in the MITLs before magnetic insulation has been established; (iii) flow of electrons emitted by the outer-MITL cathodes after insulation has been established; (iv) closure of MITL anode-cathode (AK) gaps due to expansion of cathode plasma; (v) energy loss to MITL conductors operated at high lineal current densities; (vi) heating of MITL-anode surfaces due to conduction current and deposition of electron kinetic energy; (vii) negative-space-charge-enhanced ion emission from MITL anode surfaces wherever an anode-surface-temperature threshold has been exceeded; and (viii) closure of MITL AK gaps due to expansion of anode plasma. The circuit model is expected to be most accurate when the fractional current loss is small. We have performed circuit simulations of 52 Z experiments conducted with a variety of accelerator

  15. Transmission-line-circuit model of an 85-TW, 25-MA pulsed-power accelerator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. T. Hutsel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a physics-based transmission-line-circuit model of the Z pulsed-power accelerator. The 33-m-diameter Z machine generates a peak electrical power as high as 85 TW, and delivers as much as 25 MA to a physics load. The circuit model is used to design and analyze experiments conducted on Z. The model consists of 36 networks of transmission-line-circuit elements and resistors that represent each of Zs 36 modules. The model of each module includes a Marx generator, intermediate-energy-storage capacitor, laser-triggered gas switch, pulse-forming line, self-break water switches, and tri-plate transmission lines. The circuit model also includes elements that represent Zs water convolute, vacuum insulator stack, four parallel outer magnetically insulated vacuum transmission lines (MITLs, double-post-hole vacuum convolute, inner vacuum MITL, and physics load. Within the vacuum-transmission-line system the model conducts analytic calculations of current loss. To calculate the loss, the model simulates the following processes: (i electron emission from MITL cathode surfaces wherever an electric-field threshold has been exceeded; (ii electron loss in the MITLs before magnetic insulation has been established; (iii flow of electrons emitted by the outer-MITL cathodes after insulation has been established; (iv closure of MITL anode-cathode (AK gaps due to expansion of cathode plasma; (v energy loss to MITL conductors operated at high lineal current densities; (vi heating of MITL-anode surfaces due to conduction current and deposition of electron kinetic energy; (vii negative-space-charge-enhanced ion emission from MITL anode surfaces wherever an anode-surface-temperature threshold has been exceeded; and (viii closure of MITL AK gaps due to expansion of anode plasma. The circuit model is expected to be most accurate when the fractional current loss is small. We have performed circuit simulations of 52 Z experiments conducted with a

  16. System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    2008-01-01

    /methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

  17. Modelling of channel transmission loss processes in semi-arid catchments of southern Africa using the Pitman Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Mvandaba

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Water availability is one of the major societal issues facing the world. The ability to understand and quantify the impact of key hydrological processes, on the availability of water resources, is therefore integral to ensuring equitable and sustainable resource management. Channel transmission losses are an under-researched hydrological process that affects resource availability in many semi-arid regions such as the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa, where the loss processes amount to approximately 30 % of the water balance. To improve the understanding of these loss processes and test the capability of modelling routines, three approaches using the Pitman model are applied to selected alluvial aquifer environments. The three approaches are an explicit transmission loss function, the use of a wetland function to represent channel-floodplain storage exchanges and the use of a dummy reservoir to represent floodplain storage and evapotranspiration losses. Results indicate that all three approaches are able to simulate channel transmission losses with differing impacts on the regional flows. A determination of which method best represents the channel transmission losses process requires further testing in a study area that has reliable observed historical records.

  18. Microscopic simulation model of superconducting transmission lines for standard microwave CAD programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoefer, G.J.; Kratz, H.A.

    1993-01-01

    Superconducting lines are very promising candidates for fast signal transmission in integrated circuits, because of their low losses and dispersion, which result in large usable bandwidths. Coplanar waveguides are of special interest, since only one superconducting layer is needed for their implementation. This requirement fits well the present day capabilities of the high temperature superconductor technology. At present, the major drawback of this type of transmission line is the lack of accurate and fast CAD models including the special properties of superconducting electrodes. In the following we will briefly describe the essentials of a model for the case of superconducting lines. For a complete description the reader is referenced to. The model has been proven to be useful in conjunction with commercially available microwave CAD programs. (orig.)

  19. Dynamic modelling of VSC-HVDC for connection of offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rios, Bardo; Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo

    2011-01-01

    A VSC-HVDC (Voltage Source Converter – High Voltage Direct Current) dynamic model with a set of control strategies is developed in DIgSILENT Power-Factory with the objective of analyzing the converter’s operating capability for grid support during grid faults. The investigation is carried out based...... on a 165 MW offshore wind farm with induction generators and a Low Voltage Ride-Through solution of the offshore wind turbines and Static Voltage Compensator units in the point of connection with a grid represented by a reduced four-generator power grid model. VSC-HVDC promises to be a reliable alternative...... solution for interconnection with off-shore wind farms as they become larger, with a higher installed power capacity, increased number of wind turbines, and geographically situated at larger distances from suitable connection points in the transmission grids....

  20. One-dimensional pressure transfer models for acoustic-electric transmission channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilt, K. R.; Lawry, T. J.; Scarton, H. A.; Saulnier, G. J.

    2015-09-01

    A method for modeling piezoelectric-based ultrasonic acoustic-electric power and data transmission channels is presented. These channels employ piezoelectric disk transducers to convey signals across a series of physical layers using ultrasonic waves. This model decomposes the mechanical pathway of the signal into individual ultrasonic propagation layers which are generally independent of the layer's adjacent domains. Each layer is represented by a two-by-two traveling pressure wave transfer matrix which relates the forward and reverse pressure waves on one side of the layer to the pressure waves on the opposite face, where each face is assumed to be in contact with a domain of arbitrary reference acoustic impedance. A rigorous implementation of ultrasonic beam spreading is introduced and implemented within applicable domains. Compatible pressure-wave models for piezoelectric transducers are given, which relate the electric voltage and current interface of the transducer to the pressure waves on one mechanical interface while also allowing for passive acoustic loading of the secondary mechanical interface. It is also shown that the piezoelectric model's electrical interface is compatible with transmission line parameters (ABCD-parameters), allowing for connection of electronic components and networks. The model is shown to be capable of reproducing the behavior of realistic physical channels.

  1. Transmission line model for coupled rectangular double split‐ring resonators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yan, Lei; Tang, Meng; Krozer, Viktor

    2011-01-01

    In this work, a model based on a coupled transmission line formulation is developed for microstrip rectangular double split‐ring resonators (DSRRs). This model allows using the physical dimensions of the DSRRs as an input avoiding commonly used extraction of equivalent parameters. The model inclu...... simulations of the DSRR structures. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53:1311–1315, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.25988...

  2. Experimental verification and comparison of the rubber V- belt continuously variable transmission models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegożek, W.; Dobaj, K.; Kot, A.

    2016-09-01

    The paper includes the analysis of the rubber V-belt cooperation with the CVT transmission pulleys. The analysis of the forces and torques acting in the CVT transmission was conducted basing on calculated characteristics of the centrifugal regulator and the torque regulator. The accurate estimation of the regulator surface curvature allowed for calculation of the relation between the driving wheel axial force, the engine rotational speed and the gear ratio of the CVT transmission. Simplified analytical models of the rubber V-belt- pulley cooperation are based on three basic approaches. The Dittrich model assumes two contact regions on the driven and driving wheel. The Kim-Kim model considers, in addition to the previous model, also the radial friction. The radial friction results in the lack of the developed friction area on the driving pulley. The third approach, formulated in the Cammalleri model, assumes variable sliding angle along the wrap arch and describes it as a result the belt longitudinal and cross flexibility. Theoretical torque on the driven and driving wheel was calculated on the basis of the known regulators characteristics. The calculated torque was compared to the measured loading torque. The best accordance, referring to the centrifugal regulator range of work, was obtained for the Kim-Kim model.

  3. Flexible AC transmission systems modelling and control

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiao-Ping; Pal, Bikash

    2012-01-01

    The extended and revised second edition of this successful monograph presents advanced modeling, analysis and control techniques of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS). The book covers comprehensively a range of power-system control problems: from steady-state voltage and power flow control, to voltage and reactive power control, to voltage stability control, to small signal stability control using FACTS controllers. In the six years since the first edition of the book has been published research on the FACTS has continued to flourish while renewable energy has developed into a mature and

  4. Transmission of vibration through gloves: effects of contact area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Md Rezali, Khairil Anas; Griffin, Michael J

    2017-01-01

    For three samples of material (12.5, 25.0 and 37.5 mm diameter) from each of three gloves, the dynamic stiffnesses and the vibration transmissibilities of the materials (to both the palm of the hand and the thenar eminence) were measured at frequencies from 10 to 300 Hz. Additional measurements showed the apparent masses of the hand at the palm and the thenar eminence were independent of contact area at frequencies less than about 40 Hz, but increased with increasing area at higher frequencies. The stiffness and damping of the glove materials increased with increasing area. These changes caused material transmissibilities to the hand to increase with increasing area. It is concluded that the size of the area of contact has a large influence on the transmission of vibration through a glove to the hand. The area of contact should be well-defined and controlled when evaluating the transmission of vibration through gloves. Practitioner Summary: The transmission of vibration through gloves depends on both the dynamic stiffness of glove material and the dynamic response of the hand. Both of these depend on the size of the contact area between a glove material and the hand, which should be taken into account when assessing glove transmissibility.

  5. A Modeling and Experiment Framework for the Emergency Management in AHC Transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Emergency management is crucial to finding effective ways to minimize or even eliminate the damage of emergent events, but there still exists no quantified method to study the events by computation. Statistical algorithms, such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR models on epidemic transmission, ignore many details, thus always influencing the spread of emergent events. In this paper, we first propose an agent-based modeling and experiment framework to model the real world with the emergent events. The model of the real world is called artificial society, which is composed of agent model, agent activity model, and environment model, and it employs finite state automata (FSA as its modeling paradigm. An artificial campus, on which a series of experiments are done to analyze the key factors of the acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC transmission, is then constructed to illustrate how our method works on the emergency management. Intervention measures and optional configurations (such as the isolation period of them for the emergency management are also given through the evaluations in these experiments.

  6. Intersubjective model of value transmission: parents using perceived norms as reference when socializing children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Kim-Pong; Lee, Sau-Lai; Kim, Young-Hoon; Li, Yanmei; Chao, Melody Manchi

    2012-08-01

    What values do parents want to transmit to children? The intersubjective model of value transmission posits that parents want to transmit not only the values they personally endorse but also the values they perceive to be normatively important in the society. The present research shows support to this premise. Furthermore, Studies 1 and 2 revealed that the use of perceived norms is moderated by families' social contexts and parents' personality: It was particularly pronounced among parents who were immigrants, who had a stronger need for closure, and who were more conforming. In addition, Studies 3 and 4 demonstrated that parents' perceived norms can explain actual value transmission: Values parents perceived to be normatively important were to some extent internalized by children. The intersubjective model paves some new directions for value transmission research, contributes to the understanding of cultural transmission and cultural change, and extends the intersubjective approach to culture.

  7. Simulating transmission and control of Taenia solium infections using a reed-frost stochastic model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyvsgaard, Niels Chr.; Johansen, Maria Vang; Carabin, Hélène

    2007-01-01

    occur between hosts and that hosts can be either susceptible, infected or ‘recovered and presumed immune'. Transmission between humans and pigs is modelled as susceptible roaming pigs scavenging on human faeces infected with T. solium eggs. Transmission from pigs to humans is modelled as susceptible...... humans eating under-cooked pork meat harbouring T. solium metacestodes. Deterministic models of each scenario were first run, followed by stochastic versions of the models to assess the likelihood of infection elimination in the small population modelled. The effects of three groups of interventions were...... investigated using the model: (i) interventions affecting the transmission parameters such as use of latrines, meat inspection, and cooking habits; (ii) routine interventions including rapid detection and treatment of human carriers or pig vaccination; and (iii) treatment interventions of either humans or pigs...

  8. Spatiotemporal variability and modeling of the solar irradiance transmissivity through a boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, D.; Isabelle, P. E.; Asselin, M. H.; Parent, A. C.; Jutras, S.; Anctil, F.

    2017-12-01

    Solar irradiance is the largest driver of land-surface exchanges of energy, water and trace gases. Its absorption by a forest canopy generates considerable sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as tree temperature changes. A fraction of the irradiance gets transmitted through the canopy and powers another layer of energy fluxes, which can reach substantial values. Transmitted radiation is also of particular relevance to understory vegetation photosynthesis, snowpack energetics and soil temperature dynamics. Boreal forest canopy transmissivity needs to be quantified to properly reproduce land-atmosphere interactions in the circumpolar boreal biome, but its high spatiotemporal variability makes it a challenging task. The objective of this study is to characterize the spatiotemporal variability in under-canopy radiation and to evaluate the performance of various models in representing plot-scale observations. The study site is located in Montmorency Forest (47°N, 71°W), in southern Quebec, Canada. The vegetation includes mostly juvenile balsam firs, up to 6 to 8 m tall. Since January 2016, a 15-m flux tower measures the four components of radiation, as well as other relevant fluxes and meteorological variables, on a ≈10° northeast-facing slope. In summer 2016, 20 portable weather stations were mounted in a 150 m x 200 m grid around the flux tower. These stations were equipped with silicon-cell pyranometers and provided measurements of downwelling irradiance at a height of 2 m. This setup allowed us to compute irradiance transmissivity and to assess its spatiotemporal variability at the site. First, we show that the average of daily incoming energy varies tremendously across the sites, from 1 MJ/m2 to nearly 9 MJ/m2, due to large variations in canopy structure over short distances. Using a regression tree analysis, we show that transmissivity mostly depends on sun elevation, diffuse fraction of radiation, sky and sun view fraction and wind speed above canopy. We

  9. Investigating the impact of unanticipated market and construction delays on the development of a meshed HVDC grid using dynamic transmission planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shariat Torbaghan, S.; Gibescu, M.; Rawn, B.G.; Müller, H.; Roggenkamp, M.; vd Meijden, M.A.M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a market-based dynamic transmission planning framework for the construction of a meshed offshore voltage source converter-high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) grid. Such a grid is foreseen for integrating offshore wind and electricity trade functions among the North Sea

  10. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osadolor Ebhuoma

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

  11. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-06-14

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical

  12. Natural characteristics analysis of two teeth difference external compound planet transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youdong YE

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An analytical translational-rotational-coupling dynamic model is developed to evaluate the natural characteristics of two teeth difference external compound planet transmission by adopting centralized parameters method. The governing differential equations are established by deriving relative displacement relationships between all motional components, and Matlab is used to calculate and obtain the natural frequencies and free vibration modes of the transmission system. The analysis results show that the vibration modes are classified into rotational mode of the central members, translational mode of the central members and complicate vibration mode of the planetary gears. The vibration modes are different from the NGW planetary transmission, and especially the planetary gears vibration mode are quite complex with several different vibration modes. The research can provide useful reference for preventing resonance, vibration and noise reduction, and structure optimization of the planet transmission mode used in polishing grinding.

  13. Transmissions in vehicles 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    method (R.A. Lloyd); (18) Trends of market and technology for agricultural machinery from the view of a vehicle manufacturer (H. Reiter); (19) Shifting comfort improvement on a powershift transmission using objective driveability evaluation (G. Stein); (20) Development trends on construction machinery drive trains (H. Beck); (21) Electrification and hybridisation of powertrains for off-highway machines (M. Mohr); (22) Infinitely variable PTO transmission - Development and test results of an IV-PTO transmission (R. Gugel); (23) Transmission for tractors - requirements, technical solutions and development trends (K. Grad); (24) New hydrostatic-mechanical powersplit CVT-transmission for construction machines (W. Rebholz); (25) AMT today and for the future (M. Hochrein); (26) Efficiency-optimized manual transmission featuring high performance density and excellent shift comfort (J. Patzner); (27) reduction of the gear-rattle noise level of automotive transmissions using innovative gear lubricants (A. Baumann); (28) AWD differential (B.-R. Hoehn); (28) Road-lab-math strategy and implementation in thedevelopment of manual transmission systems (T. Hahne); (29) Fluorescence-based investigations into the contact of wet-disc clutches - Optical investigations into the flat friction contact of multi-disc clutches (N. Weber); (30) The real test drive on the powertrain testbed of maneuver based training (F. Illmeier); (31) Experience of AUTOSAR-compliant development of a power-shift-transmission-control and outlook to future standards including ISO 26262 and EAST-ADL2 - Standards supporting development efficiency (G. Stempfer); (32) The impact of peripheral component on gear development concerning investigation of comfort relevant manoeuvres (A. Albers); (33) Comfort and dynamics of manual gearshifts - definition and experience at the simulator with real-time models for synchronizer and powertrain (U. Schreiber); (34) The eClutch - A new world for manual transmissions (P. Kelly); (35

  14. Looking upstream to prevent HIV transmission: can interventions with sex workers alter the course of HIV epidemics in Africa as they did in Asia?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steen, R. van der; Hontelez, J.A.; Veraart, A.; White, R.G.; Vlas, S.J. de

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: High rates of partner change in 'upstream' sex work networks have long been recognized to drive 'downstream' transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used a stochastic microsimulation model (STDSIM) to explore such transmission dynamics in a generalized African HIV

  15. Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langmead, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

  16. Dynamics of soft Nanomaterials captured by transmission electron microscopy in liquid water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proetto, Maria T.; Rush, Anthony M.; Chien, Miao-Ping; Abellan Baeza, Patricia; Patterson, Joseph P.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Olson, Norman H.; Moore, Curtis E.; Rheingold, Arnold L.; Andolina, Christopher; Millstone, Jill; Howell, Stephen B.; Browning, Nigel D.; Evans, James E.; Gianneschi, Nathan C.

    2014-01-14

    In this paper we present in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of soft, synthetic nanoparticles with a comparative analysis using conventional TEM methods. This comparison is made with the simple aim of describing what is an unprecedented example of in situ imaging by TEM. However, we contend the technique will quickly become essential in the characterization of analogous systems, especially where dynamics are of interest in the solvated state. In this case, particles were studied which were obtained from the direct polymerization of an oxaliplatin analog, designed for an ongoing program in novel chemotherapeutic delivery systems. The resulting nanoparticles provided sufficient contrast for facile imaging in situ, and point toward key design parameters that enable this new characterization approach for organic nanomaterials. We describe the preparation of the synthetic micellar nanoparticles to- gether with their characterization in liquid water.

  17. Transmission dispatch and congestion management in open market systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Risheng

    This thesis is located in the domain of electricity supply industry restructuring. It deals with emerging issues, whose understanding is essential to advancing knowledge of open access transmission theory and proceeds to develop approaches for solving the transmission dispatch and congestion management problem. An overview of current trends and experiences in utility restructuring and the main models for restructuring, as well as the classifications of system operators, is first presented. A fully unbundled competitive electricity market model, called the bilateral/multilateral trades model, is then developed. A survey of current research in transmission dispatch and congestion management is included with discussion of transmission capacity and ancillary services. A methodology for the power dispatch problem in a structure dominated by bilateral and multilateral transmission contracts is presented. Group structures are mathematically formulated and explored and three basic types of curtailment strategies proposed for use by market participants. A more complex model is then developed, which takes into account the co-existence of bilateral and multilateral contracts with pool type dynamic supplies and demands based on bids and market clearing prices. An integrated dispatch strategy to reconcile all three types of transactions (bilateral, multilateral and pool) is then developed. Prioritization of electricity transactions and related curtailment strategies are explored and a mechanism for coordination between market participants to achieve additional economic advantages is described. A theory of security based rescheduling is presented in order to investigate the security-related aspects of operation in an unbundled and deregulated system. The impact of post-contingency corrective capability on optimal rescheduling results has been identified and the advantage of incorporating post-contingency corrective rescheduling into the objective function demonstrated. Finally

  18. Phase space model for transmission of light beam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu Shinian

    1989-01-01

    Based on Fermat's principle of ray optics, the Hamiltonian of an optical ray is derived by comparison with classical mechanics. A phase space model of light beam is proposed, assuming that the light beam, regarded as a group of rays, can be described by an ellipse in the μ-phase space. Therefore, the transmission of light beam is represented by the phase space matrix transformation. By means of this non-wave formulation, the same results are obtained as those from wave equation such as Kogelnik's ABCD law. As an example of the application on this model, the matching problem of optical cavity is solved

  19. Vehicle transmission gear 2009; Getriebe in Fahrzeugen 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-07-01

    : functionality, design and development methodology (A. Giacometti); (18) DCT system approach: Choose drive away and shift feeling (O. Einfinger); (19) An example for the use of adaptive methods in powertrain control of heavy duty vehicles (C. Joachim); (20) The effect of lubricating oils on bearing fatigue-life using the Evonik RohMax pitting test procedure (T. Bartels); (21) Influence of lubricant on the pitting capacity of gears - Comparison and discussion of main pitting test methods (B.-R. Hoehn); (22) Reduction of CO{sub 2} emission by means of innovative, tailor-made gear oils (P. Kraneburg); (23) Development of a force element for the emulation of the dynamic behaviour of bevel gears (C. Brecher); (24) A simulation software for the optimisation of the gearing of conical toothed gears (H. Alxneit); (25) Fatigue life optimization for hypoid gears (Ch. Haberer); (26) BorgWarner DualTronic {sup registered} transmission concepts for efficiency, cost and robustness (A. Moser); (27) Hy Tronic - The hybrid system for distributor commercial vehicles on the bases of a modular NKW gear family (S. Wallner); (28) New drive axles for hybrid applications in low-floor city busses (U. Solka); (29) Design, construction and integration of hybrid drive components in commercial vehicles (S. Kerschl); (30) Cold trip to chassis roller dyno (J. Lewis); (31) Model-based development of a dual-clutch transmission using rapid prototyping and SiL (H. Brueckmann); (31) New synchroniser system for modern transmissions (O. Back); (32) Improving shift dynamics and efficiency of MTs, AMTs and DCTs using full servo synchronizers (T. Hackl); (33) N{sup T} {sup registered} LightDiff: Innovative, lightweight concept for bevel-gear differentials (M. Derse); (34) Hybrid concepts of the co-operation GETRAG-BOSCH and their realisation in a demonstrator car (B. Blankenbach); (35) The conservation potential of consumption of the ZF hybrid gear system (R. Kubalczyk); (36) FEV's new parallel hybrid transmission

  20. Unsteady Vibration Aerodynamic Modeling and Evaluation of Dynamic Derivatives Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Unsteady aerodynamic system modeling is widely used to solve the dynamic stability problems encountering aircraft design. In this paper, single degree-of-freedom (SDF vibration model and forced simple harmonic motion (SHM model for dynamic derivative prediction are developed on the basis of modified Etkin model. In the light of the characteristics of SDF time domain solution, the free vibration identification methods for dynamic stability parameters are extended and applied to the time domain numerical simulation of blunted cone calibration model examples. The dynamic stability parameters by numerical identification are no more than 0.15% deviated from those by experimental simulation, confirming the correctness of SDF vibration model. The acceleration derivatives, rotary derivatives, and combination derivatives of Army-Navy Spinner Rocket are numerically identified by using unsteady N-S equation and solving different SHV patterns. Comparison with the experimental result of Army Ballistic Research Laboratories confirmed the correctness of the SHV model and dynamic derivative identification. The calculation result of forced SHM is better than that by the slender body theory of engineering approximation. SDF vibration model and SHM model for dynamic stability parameters provide a solution to the dynamic stability problem encountering aircraft design.

  1. Transmission dynamics and control of Rickettsia rickettsii in populations of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris and Amblyomma sculptum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gina Polo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian Spotted Fever (BSF, caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii, is the tick-borne disease that generates the largest number of human deaths in the world. In Brazil, the current increase of BSF human cases has been associated with the presence and expansion of capybaras Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, which act as primary hosts for the tick Amblyomma sculptum, vector of the R. rickettsii in this area.We proposed a semi-discrete-time stochastic model to evaluate the role of capybaras in the transmission dynamics of R. rickettsii. Through a sensitivity analysis, we identified the parameters with significant influence on the R. rickettsii establishment. Afterward, we implemented the Gillespie's algorithm to simulate the impact of potential public health interventions to prevent BSF human cases.The introduction of a single infected capybara with at least one infected attached tick is enough to trigger the disease in a non-endemic area. We found that to avoid the formation of new BSF-endemic areas, it is crucial to impede the emigration of capybaras from endemic areas by reducing their birth rate by more than 58%. Model results were corroborated by ex-situ data generated from field studies, and this supports our proposal to prevent BSF human cases by implementing control strategies focused on capybaras.The proposed stochastic model illustrates how strategies for the control and prevention of vector-borne infectious diseases can be focused on amplifier hosts management practices. This work provides a basis for future prevention strategies for other neglected vector-borne diseases.

  2. Dynamic Airspace Managment - Models and Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng, Peng; Geng, Rui

    2010-01-01

    This chapter investigates the models and algorithms for implementing the concept of Dynamic Airspace Management. Three models are discussed. First two models are about how to use or adjust air route dynamically in order to speed up air traffic flow and reduce delay. The third model gives a way to dynamically generate the optimal sector configuration for an air traffic control center to both balance the controller’s workload and save control resources. The first model, called the Dynami...

  3. Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis and Optimization of Closed-Form Planetary Gear System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qilin Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear purely rotational dynamic model of a multistage closed-form planetary gear set formed by two simple planetary stages is proposed in this study. The model includes time-varying mesh stiffness, excitation fluctuation and gear backlash nonlinearities. The nonlinear differential equations of motion are solved numerically using variable step-size Runge-Kutta. In order to obtain function expression of optimization objective, the nonlinear differential equations of motion are solved analytically using harmonic balance method (HBM. Based on the analytical solution of dynamic equations, the optimization mathematical model which aims at minimizing the vibration displacement of the low-speed carrier and the total mass of the gear transmission system is established. The optimization toolbox in MATLAB program is adopted to obtain the optimal solution. A case is studied to demonstrate the effectiveness of the dynamic model and the optimization method. The results show that the dynamic properties of the closed-form planetary gear transmission system have been improved and the total mass of the gear set has been decreased significantly.

  4. CystiSim - an agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission and control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braae, Uffe Christian; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Gabriël, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Taenia solium taeniosis/cysticercosis was declared eradicable by the International Task Force for Disease Eradication in 1993, but remains a neglected zoonosis. To assist in the attempt to regionally eliminate this parasite, we developed cystiSim, an agent-based model for T. solium transmission...... interventions in both hosts, mass drug administration to humans, and vaccination and treatment of pigs, have a high probability of success if coverage of 75% can be maintained over at least a four year period. In comparison with an existing mathematical model for T. solium transmission, cystiSim also includes...... and control. The model was developed in R and available as an R package (http://cran.r-project.org/package=cystiSim). cystiSim was adapted to an observed setting using field data from Tanzania, but adaptable to other settings if necessary. The model description adheres to the Overview, Design concepts...

  5. Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rybakin

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

  6. Phylogenetic Inference of HIV Transmission Clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Better understanding the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks is essential for designing the most efficient interventions to prevent new HIV transmissions, and ultimately for gaining control of the HIV epidemic. The inference of phylogenetic relationships and the interpretation of results rely on the definition of the HIV transmission cluster. The definition of the HIV cluster is complex and dependent on multiple factors, including the design of sampling, accuracy of sequencing, precision of sequence alignment, evolutionary models, the phylogenetic method of inference, and specified thresholds for cluster support. While the majority of studies focus on clusters, non-clustered cases could also be highly informative. A new dimension in the analysis of the global and local HIV epidemics is the concept of phylogenetically distinct HIV sub-epidemics. The identification of active HIV sub-epidemics reveals spreading viral lineages and may help in the design of targeted interventions.HIVclustering can also be affected by sampling density. Obtaining a proper sampling density may increase statistical power and reduce sampling bias, so sampling density should be taken into account in study design and in interpretation of phylogenetic results. Finally, recent advances in long-range genotyping may enable more accurate inference of HIV transmission networks. If performed in real time, it could both inform public-health strategies and be clinically relevant (e.g., drug-resistance testing.

  7. Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

  8. Chronic Wasting Disease: Transmission Mechanisms and the Possibility of Harvest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potapov, Alex; Merrill, Evelyn; Pybus, Margo; Lewis, Mark A.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a model of CWD management by nonselective deer harvest, currently the most feasible approach available for managing CWD in wild populations. We use the model to explore the effects of 6 common harvest strategies on disease prevalence and to identify potential optimal harvest policies for reducing disease prevalence without population collapse. The model includes 4 deer categories (juveniles, adult females, younger adult males, older adult males) that may be harvested at different rates, a food-based carrying capacity, which influences juvenile survival but not adult reproduction or survival, and seasonal force of infection terms for each deer category under differing frequency-dependent transmission dynamics resulting from environmental and direct contact mechanisms. Numerical experiments show that the interval of transmission coefficients β where the disease can be controlled is generally narrow and efficiency of a harvest policy to reduce disease prevalence depends crucially on the details of the disease transmission mechanism, in particular on the intensity of disease transmission to juveniles and the potential differences in the behavior of older and younger males that influence contact rates. Optimal harvest policy to minimize disease prevalence for each of the assumed transmission mechanisms is shown to depend on harvest intensity. Across mechanisms, a harvest that focuses on antlered deer, without distinguishing between age classes reduces disease prevalence most consistently, whereas distinguishing between young and older antlered deer produces higher uncertainty in the harvest effects on disease prevalence. Our results show that, despite uncertainties, a modelling approach can determine classes of harvest strategy that are most likely to be effective in combatting CWD. PMID:26963921

  9. Methods and models for accelerating dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaman, R.

    2011-07-01

    The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, two mechanisms which make the system stiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation

  10. Dynamic wake meandering modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Gunner C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Bingoel, F. (and others)

    2007-06-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by analytical as well as by numerical studies. The dynamic wake meandering philosophy has been verified by comparing model predictions with extensive full-scale measurements. These comparisons have demonstrated good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as

  11. Issues affecting the electricity transmission system in Mexico under a competitive integrated model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila Rosales, M.A.; Gonzalez Flores, J. [Federal Electricity Commission, Mexico City (Mexico)

    2008-07-01

    The electricity sector in Mexico is undergoing a process of significant structural change. The traditional industry framework has been exposed to new market structures and greater competition, both of which are being introduced by changing regulations regarding who can generate, transmit, distribute and sell electricity. Mexico's power industry is changing to a competitive integrated model. Electricity industry restructuring is partly based on the assumption that transmission systems should be flexible, reliable, and open to all exchanges no matter where the suppliers and consumers of energy are located and who they are. However, neither the existing transmission systems nor its management infrastructure can fully support this open exchange. This paper described the primary issues affecting the transmission system in Mexico under a competitive environment and a transmission expansion planning approach that took the uncertainties associated with the location and size of new generating power stations into consideration in order to produce least-cost and robust transmission plans. The paper described the planning process, including a rigorous analysis of the economics of the resulting transmission plans. Specifically, the paper described the current regulatory framework and supply adequacy as well as current procedures and methodologies for transmission management and expansion planning. The transmission planning methodology was also presented. This included a minimum cost analysis; profit analysis; and least-cost transmission plan. It was concluded that the transmission expansion planning approach stressed that a horizon year viewpoint was important because transmission additions have long-term use. The transmission expansion planning approach, further defined the process of selecting transmission projects as one of comparing and optimizing attributes such as near-term needs; long-term utilization; contribution to overall reliability; and favorable or least

  12. Pandemic influenza and health system resource gaps in Bali: an analysis through a resource transmission dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adisasmito, Wiku; Hunter, Benjamin M; Krumkamp, Ralf; Latief, Kamal; Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Coker, Richard J

    2015-03-01

    The failure to contain pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Mexico has shifted global attention from containment to mitigation. Limited surveillance and reporting have, however, prevented detailed assessment of mitigation during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To assess pandemic influenza case management capabilities in a resource-limited setting, the authors used a health system questionnaire and density-dependent, deterministic transmission model for Bali, Indonesia, determining resource gaps. The majority of health resources were focused in and around the provincial capital, Denpasar; however, gaps are found in every district for nursing staff, surgical masks, and N95 masks. A relatively low pathogenicity pandemic influenza virus would see an overall surplus for physicians, antivirals, and antimicrobials; however, a more pathogenic virus would lead to gaps in every resource except antimicrobials. Resources could be allocated more evenly across Bali. These, however, are in short supply universally and therefore redistribution would not fill resource gaps. © 2011 APJPH.

  13. The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winskill, Peter; Slater, Hannah C; Griffin, Jamie T; Ghani, Azra C; Walker, Patrick G T

    2017-11-01

    Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden. We use a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the impact of PMI investments to date in reducing malaria burden and to explore the potential negative impact on malaria burden should a proposed 44% reduction in PMI funding occur. We combined an established mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission dynamics with epidemiological, intervention, and PMI-financing data to estimate the contribution PMI has made to malaria control via funding for long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). We estimate that PMI has prevented 185 million (95% CrI: 138 million, 230 million) malaria cases and saved 940,049 (95% CrI: 545,228, 1.4 million) lives since 2005. If funding is maintained, PMI-funded interventions are estimated to avert a further 162 million (95% CrI: 116 million, 194 million) cases, saving a further 692,589 (95% CrI: 392,694, 955,653) lives between 2017 and 2020. With an estimate of US$94 (95% CrI: US$51, US$166) per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted, PMI-funded interventions are highly cost-effective. We also demonstrate the further impact of this investment by reducing caseloads on health systems. If a 44% reduction in PMI funding were to occur, we predict that this loss of direct aid could result in an additional 67 million (95% CrI: 49 million, 82 million) cases and 290,649 (95% CrI: 167,208, 395,263) deaths between 2017 and 2020. We have not modelled indirect impacts of PMI funding (such as health systems strengthening) in this analysis. Our

  14. Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

    1980-01-01

    Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

  15. Nonlinear dynamics analysis of the spur gear system for railway locomotive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Junguo; He, Guangyue; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Yongxiang; Yao, Yuan

    2017-02-01

    Considering the factors such as the nonlinearity backlash, static transmission error and time-varying meshing stiffness, a three-degree-of-freedom torsional vibration model of spur gear transmission system for a typical locomotive is developed, in which the wheel/rail adhesion torque is considered as uncertain but bounded parameter. Meantime, the Ishikawa method is used for analysis and calculation of the time-varying mesh stiffness of the gear pair in meshing process. With the help of bifurcation diagrams, phase plane diagrams, Poincaré maps, time domain response diagrams and amplitude-frequency spectrums, the effects of the pinion speed and stiffness on the dynamic behavior of gear transmission system for locomotive are investigated in detail by using the numerical integration method. Numerical examples reveal various types of nonlinear phenomena and dynamic evolution mechanism involving one-period responses, multi-periodic responses, bifurcation and chaotic responses. Some research results present useful information to dynamic design and vibration control of the gear transmission system for railway locomotive.

  16. Lightning Protection Performance Assessment of Transmission Line Based on ATP model Automatic Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Hanwu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method to solve the initial lightning breakdown current by combing ATP and MATLAB simulation software effectively, with the aims to evaluate the lightning protection performance of transmission line. Firstly, the executable ATP simulation model is generated automatically according to the required information such as power source parameters, tower parameters, overhead line parameters, grounding resistance and lightning current parameters, etc. through an interface program coded by MATLAB. Then, the data are extracted from the generated LIS files which can be obtained by executing the ATP simulation model, the occurrence of transmission lie breakdown can be determined by the relative data in LIS file. The lightning current amplitude should be reduced when the breakdown occurs, and vice the verse. Thus the initial lightning breakdown current of a transmission line with given parameters can be determined accurately by continuously changing the lightning current amplitude, which is realized by a loop computing algorithm that is coded by MATLAB software. The method proposed in this paper can generate the ATP simulation program automatically, and facilitates the lightning protection performance assessment of transmission line.

  17. Behaviors, movements, and transmission of droplet-mediated respiratory diseases during transcontinental airline flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Howard; Elon, Lisa; Si, Wenpei; Norris, Sharon L.

    2018-01-01

    With over 3 billion airline passengers annually, the inflight transmission of infectious diseases is an important global health concern. Over a dozen cases of inflight transmission of serious infections have been documented, and air travel can serve as a conduit for the rapid spread of newly emerging infections and pandemics. Despite sensational media stories and anecdotes, the risks of transmission of respiratory viruses in an airplane cabin are unknown. Movements of passengers and crew may facilitate disease transmission. On 10 transcontinental US flights, we chronicled behaviors and movements of individuals in the economy cabin on single-aisle aircraft. We simulated transmission during flight based on these data. Our results indicate there is low probability of direct transmission to passengers not seated in close proximity to an infectious passenger. This data-driven, dynamic network transmission model of droplet-mediated respiratory disease is unique. To measure the true pathogen burden, our team collected 229 environmental samples during the flights. Although eight flights were during Influenza season, all qPCR assays for 18 common respiratory viruses were negative. PMID:29555754

  18. The Dynamics of an HIV/AIDS Model with Screened Disease Carriers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Hove-Musekwa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The presence of carriers usually complicates the dynamics and prevention of a disease. They are not recognized as disease cases themselves unless they are screened and they usually spread the infection without them being aware. We argue that this has been one of the major causes of the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. We propose, in this paper, a model for the heterogeneous transmission of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the presence of disease carriers. The model allows us to assess the role of screening, as an intervention program that can slow the epidemic. A threshold value ψ*, for the screening rate is obtained. It is shown numerically that if 80% or more of the carrier population is screened, the epidemic can be contained. The qualitative analysis is done in terms of the model reproduction number R. The model has two equilibria, the disease free equilibrium and a unique endemic equilibrium. The disease free equilibrium is globally stable of R  1. A detailed discussion of the model reproduction number is given and numerical simulations are done to show the role of some of the important model parameters.

  19. Equilibrium Analysis of a Yellow Fever Dynamical Model with Vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Martorano Raimundo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.

  20. Electron beam dynamics in an ultrafast transmission electron microscope with Wehnelt electrode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bücker, K.; Picher, M.; Crégut, O. [Institut de Physique et Chimie des Matériaux de Strasbourg, UMR 7504 CNRS, Université de Strasbourg, 23 rue du Loess, 67034 Strasbourg (France); LaGrange, T. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Electron Microscopy, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Reed, B.W.; Park, S.T.; Masiel, D.J. [Integrated Dynamic Electron Solutions, Inc., 5653 Stoneridge Drive 117, Pleasanton, CA 94588 (United States); Banhart, F., E-mail: florian.banhart@ipcms.unistra.fr [Institut de Physique et Chimie des Matériaux de Strasbourg, UMR 7504 CNRS, Université de Strasbourg, 23 rue du Loess, 67034 Strasbourg (France)

    2016-12-15

    High temporal resolution transmission electron microscopy techniques have shown significant progress in recent years. Using photoelectron pulses induced by ultrashort laser pulses on the cathode, these methods can probe ultrafast materials processes and have revealed numerous dynamic phenomena at the nanoscale. Most recently, the technique has been implemented in standard thermionic electron microscopes that provide a flexible platform for studying material's dynamics over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the electron pulses in such an ultrafast transmission electron microscope are characterized in detail. The microscope is based on a thermionic gun with a Wehnelt electrode and is operated in a stroboscopic photoelectron mode. It is shown that the Wehnelt bias has a decisive influence on the temporal and energy spread of the picosecond electron pulses. Depending on the shape of the cathode and the cathode-Wehnelt distance, different emission patterns with different pulse parameters are obtained. The energy spread of the pulses is determined by space charge and Boersch effects, given by the number of electrons in a pulse. However, filtering effects due to the chromatic aberrations of the Wehnelt electrode allow the extraction of pulses with narrow energy spreads. The temporal spread is governed by electron trajectories of different length and in different electrostatic potentials. High temporal resolution is obtained by excluding shank emission from the cathode and aberration-induced halos in the emission pattern. By varying the cathode-Wehnelt gap, the Wehnelt bias, and the number of photoelectrons in a pulse, tradeoffs between energy and temporal resolution as well as beam intensity can be made as needed for experiments. Based on the characterization of the electron pulses, the optimal conditions for the operation of ultrafast TEMs with thermionic gun assembly are elaborated. - Highlights: • A detailed characterization of electron

  1. Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heesterbeek, Hans|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073321427; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

    2015-01-01

    Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales,

  2. Community transmission of type 2 poliovirus after cessation of trivalent oral polio vaccine in Bangladesh: an open-label cluster-randomised trial and modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniuchi, Mami; Famulare, Michael; Zaman, Khalequ; Uddin, Md Jashim; Upfill-Brown, Alexander M; Ahmed, Tahmina; Saha, Parimalendu; Haque, Rashidul; Bandyopadhyay, Ananda S; Modlin, John F; Platts-Mills, James A; Houpt, Eric R; Yunus, Mohammed; Petri, William A

    2017-10-01

    Trivalent oral polio vaccine (tOPV) was replaced worldwide from April, 2016, by bivalent types 1 and 3 oral polio vaccine (bOPV) and one dose of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) where available. The risk of transmission of type 2 poliovirus or Sabin 2 virus on re-introduction or resurgence of type 2 poliovirus after this switch is not understood completely. We aimed to assess the risk of Sabin 2 transmission after a polio vaccination campaign with a monovalent type 2 oral polio vaccine (mOPV2). We did an open-label cluster-randomised trial in villages in the Matlab region of Bangladesh. We randomly allocated villages (clusters) to either: tOPV at age 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks; or bOPV at age 6 weeks, 10 weeks, and 14 weeks and either one dose of IPV at age 14 weeks or two doses of IPV at age 14 weeks and 18 weeks. After completion of enrolment, we implemented an mOPV2 vaccination campaign that targeted 40% of children younger than 5 years, regardless of enrolment status. The primary outcome was Sabin 2 incidence in the 10 weeks after the campaign in per-protocol infants who did not receive mOPV2, as assessed by faecal shedding of Sabin 2 by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). The effect of previous immunity on incidence was also investigated with a dynamical model of poliovirus transmission to observe prevalence and incidence of Sabin 2 virus. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02477046. Between April 30, 2015, and Jan 14, 2016, individuals from 67 villages were enrolled to the study. 22 villages (300 infants) were randomly assigned tOPV, 23 villages (310 infants) were allocated bOPV and one dose of IPV, and 22 villages (329 infants) were assigned bOPV and two doses of IPV. Faecal shedding of Sabin 2 in infants who did not receive the mOPV2 challenge did not differ between children immunised with bOPV and one or two doses of IPV and those who received tOPV (15 of 252 [6%] vs six of 122 [4%]; odds ratio [OR] 1·29, 95% CI 0

  3. Estimating the timing of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 using a viral molecular evolution model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Chaillon

    Full Text Available Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT is responsible for most pediatric HIV-1 infections worldwide. It can occur during pregnancy, labor, or breastfeeding. Numerous studies have used coalescent and molecular clock methods to understand the epidemic history of HIV-1, but the timing of vertical transmission has not been studied using these methods. Taking advantage of the constant accumulation of HIV genetic variation over time and using longitudinally sampled viral sequences, we used a coalescent approach to investigate the timing of MTCT.Six-hundred and twenty-two clonal env sequences from the RNA and DNA viral population were longitudinally sampled from nine HIV-1 infected mother-and-child pairs [range: 277-1034 days]. For each transmission pair, timing of MTCT was determined using a coalescent-based model within a Bayesian statistical framework. Results were compared with available estimates of MTCT timing obtained with the classic biomedical approach based on serial HIV DNA detection by PCR assays.Four children were infected during pregnancy, whereas the remaining five children were infected at time of delivery. For eight out of nine pairs, results were consistent with the transmission periods assessed by standard PCR-based assay. The discordance in the remaining case was likely confused by co-infection, with simultaneous introduction of multiple maternal viral variants at the time of delivery.The study provided the opportunity to validate the Bayesian coalescent approach that determines the timing of MTCT of HIV-1. It illustrates the power of population genetics approaches to reliably estimate the timing of transmission events and deepens our knowledge about the dynamics of viral evolution in HIV-infected children, accounting for the complexity of multiple transmission events.

  4. Possibilities for Advanced Encoding Techniques at Signal Transmission in the Optical Transmission Medium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Čertík

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a possible simulation of negative effects in the optical transmission medium and an analysis for the utilization of different signal processing techniques at the optical signal transmission. An attention is focused on the high data rate signal transmission in the optical fiber influenced by linear and nonlinear environmental effects presented by the prepared simulation model. The analysis includes possible utilization of OOK, BPSK, DBPSK, BFSK, QPSK, DQPSK, 8PSK, and 16QAM modulation techniques together with RS, BCH, and LDPC encoding techniques for the signal transmission in the optical fiber. Moreover, the prepared simulation model is compared with real optical transmission systems. In the final part, a comparison of the selected modulation techniques with different encoding techniques and their implementation in real transmission systems is shown.

  5. HVDC transmission from nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yukio; Takenaka, Kiyoshi; Ichikawa, Takemi; Ueda, Kiyotaka; Machida, Takehiko

    1979-01-01

    The HVDC transmission directly from nuclear power plants is one of the patterns of long distance and large capacity HVDC transmission systems. In this report, the double pole, two-circuit HVDC transmission from a BWR nuclear power plant is considered, and the dynamic response characteristics due to the faults in dc line and ac line of inverter side are analyzed, to clarify the dynamic characteristics of the BWR nuclear power plant and dc system due to system faults and the effects of dc power control to prevent reactor scram. (1) In the instantaneous earthing fault of one dc line, the reactor is not scrammed by start-up within 0.8 sec. (2) When the earthing fault continues, power transmission drops to 75% by suspending the faulty pole, and the reactor is scrammed. (3) In the instantaneous ground fault of 2 dc lines, the reactor is not scrammed if the faulty dc lines are started up within 0.4 sec. (4) In the existing control of dc lines, the reactor is scrammed when the ac voltage at an ac-dc connection point largely drops due to ac failure. (J.P.N.)

  6. Dynamic models for transient stability analysis of transmission and distribution systems with distributed generation : an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boemer, J.C.; Gibescu, M.; Kling, W.L.

    2009-01-01

    Distributed Generation is increasing in nowadays power systems. Small scale systems such as photovoltaic, biomass or small cogeneration plants are connected to the distribution level, while large wind farms will be connected to the transmission level. Both trends lead to a replacement of large

  7. Switched causual modeling of transmission with clutch in hybrid electric vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    LHOMME, W; TRIGUI, R; DELARU, P; JEANNERET, B; BOUSCAUROL, A; BADIN, F

    2008-01-01

    Certain difficulties arise when attempting to model a clutch in a power train transmission due to its nonlinear behavior. Two different states have to be taken into account-the first being when the clutch is locked and the second being when the clutch is slipping. In this paper, a clutch model is developed using the Energetic Macroscopic Representation, which is, in turn, used in the modeling of complete hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Two different models are used, and a specific condition ...

  8. Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    2010-01-01

    Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

  9. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  10. Practical considerations for high spatial and temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Armstrong, Michael R. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)], E-mail: armstrong30@llnl.gov; Boyden, Ken [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Browning, Nigel D. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California-Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Colvin, Jeffrey D.; De Hope, William J.; Frank, Alan M. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Gibson, David J.; Hartemann, Fred [N Division, Physics and Advanced Technologies Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-280, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Kim, Judy S. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of California-Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); King, Wayne E.; La Grange, Thomas B.; Pyke, Ben J.; Reed, Bryan W.; Shuttlesworth, Richard M.; Stuart, Brent C.; Torralva, Ben R. [Materials Science and Technology Division, Chemistry and Materials Science Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-356, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

    2007-04-15

    Although recent years have seen significant advances in the spatial resolution possible in the transmission electron microscope (TEM), the temporal resolution of most microscopes is limited to video rate at best. This lack of temporal resolution means that our understanding of dynamic processes in materials is extremely limited. High temporal resolution in the TEM can be achieved, however, by replacing the normal thermionic or field emission source with a photoemission source. In this case the temporal resolution is limited only by the ability to create a short pulse of photoexcited electrons in the source, and this can be as short as a few femtoseconds. The operation of the photo-emission source and the control of the subsequent pulse of electrons (containing as many as 5x10{sup 7} electrons) create significant challenges for a standard microscope column that is designed to operate with a single electron in the column at any one time. In this paper, the generation and control of electron pulses in the TEM to obtain a temporal resolution <10{sup -6} s will be described and the effect of the pulse duration and current density on the spatial resolution of the instrument will be examined. The potential of these levels of temporal and spatial resolution for the study of dynamic materials processes will also be discussed.

  11. Practical considerations for high spatial and temporal resolution dynamic transmission electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Michael R.; Boyden, Ken; Browning, Nigel D.; Campbell, Geoffrey H.; Colvin, Jeffrey D.; De Hope, William J.; Frank, Alan M.; Gibson, David J.; Hartemann, Fred; Kim, Judy S.; King, Wayne E.; La Grange, Thomas B.; Pyke, Ben J.; Reed, Bryan W.; Shuttlesworth, Richard M.; Stuart, Brent C.; Torralva, Ben R.

    2007-01-01

    Although recent years have seen significant advances in the spatial resolution possible in the transmission electron microscope (TEM), the temporal resolution of most microscopes is limited to video rate at best. This lack of temporal resolution means that our understanding of dynamic processes in materials is extremely limited. High temporal resolution in the TEM can be achieved, however, by replacing the normal thermionic or field emission source with a photoemission source. In this case the temporal resolution is limited only by the ability to create a short pulse of photoexcited electrons in the source, and this can be as short as a few femtoseconds. The operation of the photo-emission source and the control of the subsequent pulse of electrons (containing as many as 5x10 7 electrons) create significant challenges for a standard microscope column that is designed to operate with a single electron in the column at any one time. In this paper, the generation and control of electron pulses in the TEM to obtain a temporal resolution -6 s will be described and the effect of the pulse duration and current density on the spatial resolution of the instrument will be examined. The potential of these levels of temporal and spatial resolution for the study of dynamic materials processes will also be discussed

  12. Simplified models of vector control impact upon malaria transmission by zoophagic mosquitoes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samson S Kiware

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: High coverage of personal protection measures that kill mosquitoes dramatically reduce malaria transmission where vector populations depend upon human blood. However, most primary malaria vectors outside of sub-Saharan Africa can be classified as "very zoophagic," meaning they feed occasionally (<10% of blood meals upon humans, so personal protection interventions have negligible impact upon their survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We extended a published malaria transmission model to examine the relationship between transmission, control, and the baseline proportion of bloodmeals obtained from humans (human blood index. The lower limit of the human blood index enables derivation of simplified models for zoophagic vectors that (1 Rely on only three field-measurable parameters. (2 Predict immediate and delayed (with and without assuming reduced human infectivity, respectively impacts of personal protection measures upon transmission. (3 Illustrate how appreciable indirect communal-level protection for non-users can be accrued through direct personal protection of users. (4 Suggest the coverage and efficacy thresholds required to attain epidemiological impact. The findings suggest that immediate, indirect, community-wide protection of users and non-users alike may linearly relate to the efficacy of a user's direct personal protection, regardless of whether that is achieved by killing or repelling mosquitoes. High protective coverage and efficacy (≥80% are important to achieve epidemiologically meaningful impact. Non-users are indirectly protected because the two most common species of human malaria are strict anthroponoses. Therefore, the small proportion of mosquitoes that are killed or diverted while attacking humans can represent a large proportion of those actually transmitting malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Simplified models of malaria transmission by very zoophagic vectors may be used by control practitioners to predict intervention impact

  13. Dynamic modeling method for infrared smoke based on enhanced discrete phase model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhendong; Yang, Chunling; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2018-03-01

    The dynamic modeling of infrared (IR) smoke plays an important role in IR scene simulation systems and its accuracy directly influences the system veracity. However, current IR smoke models cannot provide high veracity, because certain physical characteristics are frequently ignored in fluid simulation; simplifying the discrete phase as a continuous phase and ignoring the IR decoy missile-body spinning. To address this defect, this paper proposes a dynamic modeling method for IR smoke, based on an enhanced discrete phase model (DPM). A mathematical simulation model based on an enhanced DPM is built and a dynamic computing fluid mesh is generated. The dynamic model of IR smoke is then established using an extended equivalent-blackbody-molecule model. Experiments demonstrate that this model realizes a dynamic method for modeling IR smoke with higher veracity.

  14. Effect of social group dynamics on contagion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhenyuan; Calderón, J. P.; Xu, Chen; Zhao, Guannan; Fenn, Dan; Sornette, Didier; Crane, Riley; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

    2010-05-01

    Despite the many works on contagion phenomena in both well-mixed systems and heterogeneous networks, there is still a lack of understanding of the intermediate regime where social group structures evolve on a similar time scale to individual-level transmission. We address this question by considering the process of transmission through a model population comprising social groups which follow simple dynamical rules for growth and breakup. Despite the simplicity of our model, the profiles produced bear a striking resemblance to a wide variety of real-world examples—in particular, empirical data that we have obtained for social (i.e., YouTube), financial (i.e., currency markets), and biological (i.e., colds in schools) systems. The observation of multiple resurgent peaks and abnormal decay times is qualitatively reproduced within the model simply by varying the time scales for group coalescence and fragmentation. We provide an approximate analytic treatment of the system and highlight a novel transition which arises as a result of the social group dynamics.

  15. Equifinality in empirical studies of cultural transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Brendan J

    2018-01-31

    Cultural systems exhibit equifinal behavior - a single final state may be arrived at via different mechanisms and/or from different initial states. Potential for equifinality exists in all empirical studies of cultural transmission including controlled experiments, observational field research, and computational simulations. Acknowledging and anticipating the existence of equifinality is important in empirical studies of social learning and cultural evolution; it helps us understand the limitations of analytical approaches and can improve our ability to predict the dynamics of cultural transmission. Here, I illustrate and discuss examples of equifinality in studies of social learning, and how certain experimental designs might be prone to it. I then review examples of equifinality discussed in the social learning literature, namely the use of s-shaped diffusion curves to discern individual from social learning and operational definitions and analytical approaches used in studies of conformist transmission. While equifinality exists to some extent in all studies of social learning, I make suggestions for how to address instances of it, with an emphasis on using data simulation and methodological verification alongside modern statistical approaches that emphasize prediction and model comparison. In cases where evaluated learning mechanisms are equifinal due to non-methodological factors, I suggest that this is not always a problem if it helps us predict cultural change. In some cases, equifinal learning mechanisms might offer insight into how both individual learning, social learning strategies and other endogenous social factors might by important in structuring cultural dynamics and within- and between-group heterogeneity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Analytical modeling of a sandwiched plate piezoelectric transformer-based acoustic-electric transmission channel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawry, Tristan J; Wilt, Kyle R; Scarton, Henry A; Saulnier, Gary J

    2012-11-01

    The linear propagation of electromagnetic and dilatational waves through a sandwiched plate piezoelectric transformer (SPPT)-based acoustic-electric transmission channel is modeled using the transfer matrix method with mixed-domain two-port ABCD parameters. This SPPT structure is of great interest because it has been explored in recent years as a mechanism for wireless transmission of electrical signals through solid metallic barriers using ultrasound. The model we present is developed to allow for accurate channel performance prediction while greatly reducing the computational complexity associated with 2- and 3-dimensional finite element analysis. As a result, the model primarily considers 1-dimensional wave propagation; however, approximate solutions for higher-dimensional phenomena (e.g., diffraction in the SPPT's metallic core layer) are also incorporated. The model is then assessed by comparing it to the measured wideband frequency response of a physical SPPT-based channel from our previous work. Very strong agreement between the modeled and measured data is observed, confirming the accuracy and utility of the presented model.

  17. Value transmissions between parents and children: gender and developmental phase as transmission belts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roest, Annette M C; Dubas, Judith Semon; Gerris, Jan R M

    2010-02-01

    This study applied the gender role model of socialization theory, the developmental aging theory, and the topic salience perspective to the investigation of parent-child value transmissions. Specifically, we examined whether the bi-directionality and selectivity of value transmissions differed as a function of parents' and children's gender and children's developmental phase (adolescence versus emerging adulthood). Transmissions between parents and children from 402 Dutch families on the topics of work as duty and hedonism were studied across a 5-year period using structural equation modeling. As expected, we did not find convincing support for the general models of gender socialization and developmental aging. Instead, parent-child value transmissions appeared to be qualified by value salience. Particularly, high salience of work as duty for fathers was related with great paternal involvement in transmissions on this value orientation and high salience of hedonism for sons and adolescents was linked to transmissions from these groups to parents. Copyright (c) 2009 The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Research on Capacity Addition using Market Model with Transmission Congestion under Competitive Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsura, Yasufumi; Attaviriyanupap, Pathom; Kataoka, Yoshihiko

    In this research, the fundamental premises for deregulation of the electric power industry are reevaluated. The authors develop a simple model to represent wholesale electricity market with highly congested network. The model is developed by simplifying the power system and market in New York ISO based on available data of New York ISO in 2004 with some estimation. Based on the developed model and construction cost data from the past, the economic impact of transmission line addition on market participants and the impact of deregulation on power plant additions under market with transmission congestion are studied. Simulation results show that the market signals may fail to facilitate proper capacity additions and results in the undesirable over-construction and insufficient-construction cycle of capacity addition.

  19. Supply based on demand dynamical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

    2018-04-01

    We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

  20. Thoracolumbar spine model with articulated ribcage for the prediction of dynamic spinal loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ignasiak, Dominika; Dendorfer, Sebastian; Ferguson, Stephen J

    2016-04-11

    Musculoskeletal modeling offers an invaluable insight into the spine biomechanics. A better understanding of thoracic spine kinetics is essential for understanding disease processes and developing new prevention and treatment methods. Current models of the thoracic region are not designed for segmental load estimation, or do not include the complex construct of the ribcage, despite its potentially important role in load transmission. In this paper, we describe a numerical musculoskeletal model of the thoracolumbar spine with articulated ribcage, modeled as a system of individual vertebral segments, elastic elements and thoracic muscles, based on a previously established lumbar spine model and data from the literature. The inverse dynamics simulations of the model allow the prediction of spinal loading as well as costal joints kinetics and kinematics. The intradiscal pressure predicted by the model correlated well (R(2)=0.89) with reported intradiscal pressure measurements, providing a first validation of the model. The inclusion of the ribcage did not affect segmental force predictions when the thoracic spine did not perform motion. During thoracic motion tasks, the ribcage had an important influence on the predicted compressive forces and muscle activation patterns. The compressive forces were reduced by up to 32%, or distributed more evenly between thoracic vertebrae, when compared to the predictions of the model without ribcage, for mild thoracic flexion and hyperextension tasks, respectively. The presented musculoskeletal model provides a tool for investigating thoracic spine loading and load sharing between vertebral column and ribcage during dynamic activities. Further validation for specific applications is still necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.