WorldWideScience

Sample records for training predicting natural

  1. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  2. Training and natural immunity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Bente Klarlund; Helge, Jørn Wulff; Richter, Erik

    2000-01-01

    these subjects were used to eliminate day-to-day variation in the immunological tests. Independently of diet, training increased the percentage of CD3-CD16+ CD56+ natural killer (NK) cells from [mean (SEM)] 14 (1) % to 20 (3) % (P = 0.05), whereas the NK-cell activity, either unstimulated or stimulated...... influence natural immunity, and suggest that ingestion of a fat-rich diet during training is detrimental to the immune system compared to the effect of a carbohydrate-rich diet....

  3. Predicting natural catastrophes tsunamis

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2005-01-01

    1. Tsunamis - Introduction - Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation - The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning - General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of "tsunami earthquakes" Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys - Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and related milestones. Reconstructing historical tsunamis: eyewitnesses and geological evidence 5. Lessons from the 2004 Indonesian tsunami - Lessons in seismology Lessons in Geology The new technologies Lessons in civ...

  4. Prediction of natural gas consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, R.L.; Walton, D.J.; Hoskins, W.D.

    1993-01-01

    Distributors of natural gas need to predict future consumption in order to purchase a sufficient supply on contract. Distributors that offer their customers equal payment plans need to predict the consumption of each customer 12 months in advance. Estimates of previous consumption are often used for months when meters are inaccessible, or bimonthly-read meters. Existing methods of predicting natural gas consumption, and a proposed new method for each local region are discussed. The proposed model distinguishes the consumption load factors from summer to other seasons by attempting to adjust them by introducing two parameters. The problem is then reduced to a quadratic programming problem. However, since it is not necessary to use both parameters simultaneously, the problem can be solved with a simple iterative procedure. Results show that the new model can improve the two-equation model to a certain scale. The adjustment to heat load factor can reduce the error of prediction markedly while that to base load factor influences the error marginally. 3 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Semen analysis and prediction of natural conception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leushuis, Esther; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Repping, Sjoerd; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco

    2014-01-01

    Do two semen analyses predict natural conception better than a single semen analysis and will adding the results of repeated semen analyses to a prediction model for natural pregnancy improve predictions? A second semen analysis does not add helpful information for predicting natural conception

  6. Modernizing Training Options for Natural Areas Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedl, Sarah E.; Ober, Holly K.; Stein, Taylor V.; Andreu, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    A recent shift in desires among working professionals from traditional learning environments to distance education has emerged due to reductions in travel and training budgets. To accommodate this, the Natural Areas Training Academy replaced traditionally formatted workshops with a hybrid approach. Surveys of participants before and after this…

  7. Automatic Train Operation Using Autonomic Prediction of Train Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asuka, Masashi; Kataoka, Kenji; Komaya, Kiyotoshi; Nishida, Syogo

    In this paper, we present an automatic train control method adaptable to disturbed train traffic conditions. The proposed method presumes transmission of detected time of a home track clearance to trains approaching to the station by employing equipment of Digital ATC (Automatic Train Control). Using the information, each train controls its acceleration by the method that consists of two approaches. First, by setting a designated restricted speed, the train controls its running time to arrive at the next station in accordance with predicted delay. Second, the train predicts the time at which it will reach the current braking pattern generated by Digital ATC, along with the time when the braking pattern transits ahead. By comparing them, the train correctly chooses the coasting drive mode in advance to avoid deceleration due to the current braking pattern. We evaluated the effectiveness of the proposed method regarding driving conditions, energy consumption and reduction of delays by simulation.

  8. Negotiation Training Courses for Natural Resource Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkardt, Nina; Swann, M. Earlene; Walters, Katherine

    2006-01-01

    FORT's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch (PASA) has been conducting and publishing research on multi-party natural resource negotiation since the 1980s. This research has led to the development of basic and advanced negotiation training courses. Each course is two-and-a-half days. Both courses are a mix of lecture, hands-on training, and discussion. Please join us and other natural resource professionals facing similar problems and share your experiences. Come prepared to candidly discuss examples of successes to embrace, stalemates to recognize, and pitfalls to avoid in natural resource negotiations.

  9. The Pattern and Loci of Training-Induced Brain Changes in Healthy Older Adults Are Predicted by the Nature of the Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belleville, Sylvie; Mellah, Samira; de Boysson, Chloé; Demonet, Jean-Francois; Bier, Bianca

    2014-01-01

    There is enormous interest in designing training methods for reducing cognitive decline in healthy older adults. Because it is impaired with aging, multitasking has often been targeted and has been shown to be malleable with appropriate training. Investigating the effects of cognitive training on functional brain activation might provide critical indication regarding the mechanisms that underlie those positive effects, as well as provide models for selecting appropriate training methods. The few studies that have looked at brain correlates of cognitive training indicate a variable pattern and location of brain changes - a result that might relate to differences in training formats. The goal of this study was to measure the neural substrates as a function of whether divided attentional training programs induced the use of alternative processes or whether it relied on repeated practice. Forty-eight older adults were randomly allocated to one of three training programs. In the SINGLE REPEATED training, participants practiced an alphanumeric equation and a visual detection task, each under focused attention. In the DIVIDED FIXED training, participants practiced combining verification and detection by divided attention, with equal attention allocated to both tasks. In the DIVIDED VARIABLE training, participants completed the task by divided attention, but were taught to vary the attentional priority allocated to each task. Brain activation was measured with fMRI pre- and post-training while completing each task individually and the two tasks combined. The three training programs resulted in markedly different brain changes. Practice on individual tasks in the SINGLE REPEATED training resulted in reduced brain activation whereas DIVIDED VARIABLE training resulted in a larger recruitment of the right superior and middle frontal gyrus, a region that has been involved in multitasking. The type of training is a critical factor in determining the pattern of brain activation

  10. The pattern and loci of training-induced brain changes in healthy older adults are predicted by the nature of the intervention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvie Belleville

    Full Text Available There is enormous interest in designing training methods for reducing cognitive decline in healthy older adults. Because it is impaired with aging, multitasking has often been targeted and has been shown to be malleable with appropriate training. Investigating the effects of cognitive training on functional brain activation might provide critical indication regarding the mechanisms that underlie those positive effects, as well as provide models for selecting appropriate training methods. The few studies that have looked at brain correlates of cognitive training indicate a variable pattern and location of brain changes--a result that might relate to differences in training formats. The goal of this study was to measure the neural substrates as a function of whether divided attentional training programs induced the use of alternative processes or whether it relied on repeated practice. Forty-eight older adults were randomly allocated to one of three training programs. In the single repeated training, participants practiced an alphanumeric equation and a visual detection task, each under focused attention. In the divided fixed training, participants practiced combining verification and detection by divided attention, with equal attention allocated to both tasks. In the divided variable training, participants completed the task by divided attention, but were taught to vary the attentional priority allocated to each task. Brain activation was measured with fMRI pre- and post-training while completing each task individually and the two tasks combined. The three training programs resulted in markedly different brain changes. Practice on individual tasks in the single repeated training resulted in reduced brain activation whereas divided variable training resulted in a larger recruitment of the right superior and middle frontal gyrus, a region that has been involved in multitasking. The type of training is a critical factor in determining the pattern of

  11. Prediction during natural language comprehension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, R.M.; Frank, S.L.; Nijhof, A.D.; Hagoort, P.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

    2016-01-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as

  12. What predicts performance during clinical psychology training?

    OpenAIRE

    Scior, Katrina; Bradley, Caroline E; Potts, Henry W W; Woolf, Katherine; de C Williams, Amanda C

    2013-01-01

    Objectives While the question of who is likely to be selected for clinical psychology training has been studied, evidence on performance during training is scant. This study explored data from seven consecutive intakes of the UK's largest clinical psychology training course, aiming to identify what factors predict better or poorer outcomes. Design Longitudinal cross-sectional study using prospective and retrospective data. Method Characteristics at application were analysed in relation to a r...

  13. Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L; Nijhof, Annabel D; Hagoort, Peter; van den Bosch, Antal

    2016-06-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Monitoring and prediction of natural disasters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratyev, K. Ya; Krapivin, V. F.

    2004-01-01

    The problems of natural disaster predicting and accomplishing a synthesis of environmental monitoring systems to collect, store, and process relevant information for their solution are analysed. A three-level methodology is proposed for making decisions concerning the natural disaster dynamics. The methodology is based on the assessment of environmental indicators and the use of numerical models of the environment

  15. Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Eiji; Kitaoka, Akiyoshi; Sakamoto, Kiwako; Yasugi, Masaki; Tanaka, Kenta

    2018-01-01

    The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning) predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

  16. Illusory Motion Reproduced by Deep Neural Networks Trained for Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eiji Watanabe

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The cerebral cortex predicts visual motion to adapt human behavior to surrounding objects moving in real time. Although the underlying mechanisms are still unknown, predictive coding is one of the leading theories. Predictive coding assumes that the brain's internal models (which are acquired through learning predict the visual world at all times and that errors between the prediction and the actual sensory input further refine the internal models. In the past year, deep neural networks based on predictive coding were reported for a video prediction machine called PredNet. If the theory substantially reproduces the visual information processing of the cerebral cortex, then PredNet can be expected to represent the human visual perception of motion. In this study, PredNet was trained with natural scene videos of the self-motion of the viewer, and the motion prediction ability of the obtained computer model was verified using unlearned videos. We found that the computer model accurately predicted the magnitude and direction of motion of a rotating propeller in unlearned videos. Surprisingly, it also represented the rotational motion for illusion images that were not moving physically, much like human visual perception. While the trained network accurately reproduced the direction of illusory rotation, it did not detect motion components in negative control pictures wherein people do not perceive illusory motion. This research supports the exciting idea that the mechanism assumed by the predictive coding theory is one of basis of motion illusion generation. Using sensory illusions as indicators of human perception, deep neural networks are expected to contribute significantly to the development of brain research.

  17. Natural systems prediction of radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the application (and limitations) of data from natural systems to the verification of performance assessments, particularly as they apply to the evaluation of the long-term performance of waste forms, backfill, canister materials, and finally, the integrity of the repository itself. Two specific examples, the corrosion of borosilicate glass and the formation of alteration products of spent fuel, will be discussed. In both cases, inferences are of three types: 1) directly applicable data (i.e. radiation effects, stable phase assemblages): 2) inferences based on the analogous behaviour of the natural and repository systems (e.g. long-term corrosion rate); 3) specific identification of new phenomena that could not have been anticipated from the short term laboratory data (i.e. new mechanisms for the retention or release of radionuclides). The latter can only be derived from the observation of natural systems. Finally, specific attention will be paid to the limitations in the use of natural systems, particularly as the spatial and temporal scales expand, and to the inherent limitations of prediction and verification. (J.P.N.)

  18. Developing a comprehensive training curriculum for integrated predictive maintenance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurzbach, Richard N.

    2002-03-01

    On-line equipment condition monitoring is a critical component of the world-class production and safety histories of many successful nuclear plant operators. From addressing availability and operability concerns of nuclear safety-related equipment to increasing profitability through support system reliability and reduced maintenance costs, Predictive Maintenance programs have increasingly become a vital contribution to the maintenance and operation decisions of nuclear facilities. In recent years, significant advancements have been made in the quality and portability of many of the instruments being used, and software improvements have been made as well. However, the single most influential component of the success of these programs is the impact of a trained and experienced team of personnel putting this technology to work. Changes in the nature of the power generation industry brought on by competition, mergers, and acquisitions, has taken the historically stable personnel environment of power generation and created a very dynamic situation. As a result, many facilities have seen a significant turnover in personnel in key positions, including predictive maintenance personnel. It has become the challenge for many nuclear operators to maintain the consistent contribution of quality data and information from predictive maintenance that has become important in the overall equipment decision process. These challenges can be met through the implementation of quality training to predictive maintenance personnel and regular updating and re-certification of key technology holders. The use of data management tools and services aid in the sharing of information across sites within an operating company, and with experts who can contribute value-added data management and analysis. The overall effectiveness of predictive maintenance programs can be improved through the incorporation of newly developed comprehensive technology training courses. These courses address the use of

  19. Predicting the locations of naturally fishless lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Emily Gaenzle; Loftin, C.S.; Degoosh, K.E.; Huryn, Alexander D.; Webster, K.E.

    2008-01-01

    1. Fish have been introduced into many previously fishless lakes throughout North America over the past 100+ years. It is difficult to determine the historical distribution of fishless lakes, however, because these introductions have not always been well-documented. 2. Due to its glacial history and low human population density, the state of Maine (U.S.A.) may host the greatest number of naturally fishless lakes in the northeastern United States. However, less than one-quarter of Maine's 6000+ lakes have been surveyed for fish presence, and no accurate assessments of either the historical or current abundance and distribution of fishless lakes exist. 3. We developed methods to assess the abundance and distribution of Maine's naturally fishless lakes (0.6-10.1 ha). We hypothesized that the historical distribution of fishless lakes across a landscape is controlled by geomorphic and geographic conditions. 4. We used ArcGIS to identify landscape-scale geomorphic and geographic factors (e.g. connectivity, surrounding slope) correlated with fish absence in two geomorphic regions of Maine - the western and interior mountains and the eastern lowlands and foothills. By using readily available geographic information systems data our method was not limited to field-visited sites. We estimated the likelihood that a particular lake is fishless with a stepwise logistic regression model developed for each region. 5. The absence of fish from western lakes is related to altitude (+), minimum percent slope in the 500 m buffer (+), maximum percent slope in the 500 m buffer (+) and percent cover of herbaceous-emergent wetland in 1000 m buffer (-). The absence of fish from eastern lakes is related to the lack of a stream within 50 m of the lake. 6. The models predict that a total of 4% (131) of study lakes in the two regions were historically fishless, with the eastern region hosting a greater proportion than the western region. 7. We verified the model predictions with two

  20. Blind prediction of natural video quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saad, Michele A; Bovik, Alan C; Charrier, Christophe

    2014-03-01

    We propose a blind (no reference or NR) video quality evaluation model that is nondistortion specific. The approach relies on a spatio-temporal model of video scenes in the discrete cosine transform domain, and on a model that characterizes the type of motion occurring in the scenes, to predict video quality. We use the models to define video statistics and perceptual features that are the basis of a video quality assessment (VQA) algorithm that does not require the presence of a pristine video to compare against in order to predict a perceptual quality score. The contributions of this paper are threefold. 1) We propose a spatio-temporal natural scene statistics (NSS) model for videos. 2) We propose a motion model that quantifies motion coherency in video scenes. 3) We show that the proposed NSS and motion coherency models are appropriate for quality assessment of videos, and we utilize them to design a blind VQA algorithm that correlates highly with human judgments of quality. The proposed algorithm, called video BLIINDS, is tested on the LIVE VQA database and on the EPFL-PoliMi video database and shown to perform close to the level of top performing reduced and full reference VQA algorithms.

  1. Measurement of natural background radiation intensity on a train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y. F.; Lin, J. W.; Sheu, R. J.; Lin, U. T.; Jiang, S. H.

    2011-01-01

    This work aims to measure different components of natural background radiation on a train. A radiation measurement system consisting of four types of radiation detectors, namely, a Berkeley Lab cosmic-ray detector, moderated 3He detector, high pressure ionisation chamber and NaI(Tl) spectrometer, associated with a global positioning system unit was established for this purpose. For the commissioning of the system, a test measurement on a train along the railway around the northern Taiwan coast from Hsinchu to Hualien with a distance of ∼275 km was carried out. No significant variation of the intensities of the different components of natural background radiation was observed, except when the train went underground or in the tunnels. The average external dose rate received by the crew of the train was estimated to be 62 nSv h -1 . (authors)

  2. Energy-Efficient Train Operation Using Nature-Inspired Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Keskin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A train operation optimization by minimizing its traction energy subject to various constraints is carried out using nature-inspired evolutionary algorithms. The optimization process results in switching points that initiate cruising and coasting phases of the driving. Due to nonlinear optimization formulation of the problem, nature-inspired evolutionary search methods, Genetic Simulated Annealing, Firefly, and Big Bang-Big Crunch algorithms were employed in this study. As a case study a real-like train and test track from a part of Eskisehir light rail network were modeled. Speed limitations, various track alignments, maximum allowable trip time, and changes in train mass were considered, and punctuality was put into objective function as a penalty factor. Results have shown that all three evolutionary methods generated effective and consistent solutions. However, it has also been shown that each one has different accuracy and convergence characteristics.

  3. Long-term predictions using natural analogues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ewing, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    One of the unique and scientifically most challenging aspects of nuclear waste isolation is the extrapolation of short-term laboratory data (hours to years) to the long time periods (10 3 -10 5 years) required by regulatory agencies for performance assessment. The direct validation of these extrapolations is not possible, but methods must be developed to demonstrate compliance with government regulations and to satisfy the lay public that there is a demonstrable and reasonable basis for accepting the long-term extrapolations. Natural systems (e.g., open-quotes natural analoguesclose quotes) provide perhaps the only means of partial open-quotes validation,close quotes as well as data that may be used directly in the models that are used in the extrapolation. Natural systems provide data on very large spatial (nm to km) and temporal (10 3 -10 8 years) scales and in highly complex terranes in which unknown synergisms may affect radionuclide migration. This paper reviews the application (and most importantly, the limitations) of data from natural analogue systems to the open-quotes validationclose quotes of performance assessments

  4. Predicting the usefulness and naturalness of color reproductions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, T.J.W.M.; Blommaert, F.J.J.

    2000-01-01

    We present algorithms for predicting the usefulness and naturalness of color reproductions of natural scenes. The algorithms are based on a computational model of the stages that lead to an observer's impression of the usefulness and naturalness of an image. These stages are (1) the perception, or

  5. Prediction of flow instability during natural convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farhadi, Kazem

    2005-01-01

    The occurrence of flow excursion instability during passive heat removal for Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) has been analyzed at low-pressure and low-mass rate of flow conditions without boiling taking place. Pressure drop-flow rate characteristics in the general case are determined upon a developed code for this purpose. The code takes into account variations of different pressure drop components caused by different powers as well as different core inlet temperatures. The analysis revealed the fact that the instability can actually occur in the natural convection mode for a range of powers per fuel plates at a predetermined inlet temperature with fixed geometry of the core. Low mass rate of flow and high sub-cooling are the two important conditions for the occurrence of static instability in the TRR. The calculated results are compared with the existing data in the literature. (author)

  6. Predictability of psychic outcome for exercise training and exercise training including relaxation therapy after myocardial infarction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.J. Duivenvoorden (Hugo); J. van Dixhoorn (J.)

    1991-01-01

    markdownabstractAbstract Predictability of the psychic outcome for two cardiac rehabilitation programmes was investigated in 119 myocardial infarction patients. They were randomly assigned to either a five-week daily exercise training or to an identical training in combination with six sessions

  7. The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

    2015-05-01

    Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

  8. Natural conception rates in subfertile couples following fertility awareness training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank-Herrmann, P; Jacobs, C; Jenetzky, E; Gnoth, C; Pyper, C; Baur, S; Freundl, G; Goeckenjan, M; Strowitzki, T

    2017-04-01

    To analyze cumulative pregnancy rates of subfertile couples after fertility awareness training. A prospective observational cohort study followed 187 subfertile women, who had received training in self-observation of the fertile phase of the menstrual cycle with the Sensiplan method, for 8 months. The women, aged 21-47 years, had attempted to become pregnant for 3.5 years on average (range 1-8 years) before study entry. Amenorrhea, known tubal occlusion and severe male factor had been excluded. An additional seven women, who had initially been recruited, became pregnant during the cycle immediately prior to Sensiplan training: this is taken to be the spontaneous pregnancy rate per cycle in the cohort in the absence of fertility awareness training. The cumulative pregnancy rate of subfertile couples after fertility awareness training was 38% (95% CI 27-49%; 58 pregnancies) after eight observation months, which is significantly higher than the estimated basic pregnancy rate of 21.6% in untrained couples in the same cohort. For couples who had been seeking to become pregnant for 1-2 years, the pregnancy rate increased to 56% after 8 months. A female age above 35 (cumulative pregnancy rate 25%, p = 0.06), couples who had attempted to become pregnant for more than 2 years (cumulative pregnancy rate 17%, p conceiving naturally at some point. Training women to identify their fertile window in the menstrual cycle seems to be a reasonable first-line therapy in the management of subfertility.

  9. Natural Gas Vehicle Cylinder Safety, Training and Inspection Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hank Seiff

    2008-12-31

    Under the auspices of the National Energy Technology Laboratory and the US Department of Energy, the Clean Vehicle Education Foundation conducted a three-year program to increase the understanding of the safe and proper use and maintenance of vehicular compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel systems. High-pressure fuel systems require periodic inspection and maintenance to insure safe and proper operation. The project addressed the needs of CNG fuel containers (cylinders) and associated high-pressure fuel system components related to existing law, codes and standards (C&S), available training and inspection programs, and assured coordination among vehicle users, public safety officials, fueling station operators and training providers. The program included a public and industry awareness campaign, establishment and administration of a cylinder inspector certification training scholarship program, evaluation of current safety training and testing practices, monitoring and investigation of CNG vehicle incidents, evaluation of a cylinder recertification program and the migration of CNG vehicle safety knowledge to the nascent hydrogen vehicle community.

  10. Natural resources youth training program (NRYTP), resource rangers 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-09-15

    In 2010, for a second year, the natural resources youth training program (NRYTP) was developed in northern Manitoba thanks to Manitoba Keewatinowi Okimakanak Inc. (MKO) and the collaboration of 42 sponsors. 16 aboriginal youth representing six northern communities took part in the five-week program located at the Egg Lake camp. The objective was to provide these resources rangers with knowledge and training in the most widespread resource sectors in northern Manitoba, including mining, forestry and hydropower. Trainers and experts provided by industry partners offered training sessions, hands-on work experience and other activities to help resource rangers to acquire a better understanding of the employability in this field in the northern region and the knowledge and skills the resource-based careers require. Life and professional skills training was given by the camp staff and local professionals. On-site elders and cultural events also allowed the integration of a northern Cree cultural component. Three staff members, a cook and elders assisted daily the resource rangers. Many improvements and refinements have been made since the success of the 2009 program, including the involvement of a larger number of communities, program contributors and program graduates. The program length has doubled and the number of jobs created has increased, important cultural aspects were introduced and the overall expenses were reduced.

  11. Homophyly/kinship hypothesis: Natural communities, and predicting in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Angsheng; Li, Jiankou; Pan, Yicheng

    2015-02-01

    It has been a longstanding challenge to understand natural communities in real world networks. We proposed a community finding algorithm based on fitness of networks, two algorithms for prediction, accurate prediction and confirmation of keywords for papers in the citation network Arxiv HEP-TH (high energy physics theory), and the measures of internal centrality, external de-centrality, internal and external slopes to characterize the structures of communities. We implemented our algorithms on 2 citation and 5 cooperation graphs. Our experiments explored and validated a homophyly/kinship principle of real world networks. The homophyly/kinship principle includes: (1) homophyly is the natural selection in real world networks, similar to Darwin's kinship selection in nature, (2) real world networks consist of natural communities generated by the natural selection of homophyly, (3) most individuals in a natural community share a short list of common attributes, (4) natural communities have an internal centrality (or internal heterogeneity) that a natural community has a few nodes dominating most of the individuals in the community, (5) natural communities have an external de-centrality (or external homogeneity) that external links of a natural community homogeneously distributed in different communities, and (6) natural communities of a given network have typical structures determined by the internal slopes, and have typical patterns of outgoing links determined by external slopes, etc. Our homophyly/kinship principle perfectly matches Darwin's observation that animals from ants to people form social groups in which most individuals work for the common good, and that kinship could encourage altruistic behavior. Our homophyly/kinship principle is the network version of Darwinian theory, and builds a bridge between Darwinian evolution and network science.

  12. Prediction of rodent carcinogenic potential of naturally occurring chemicals in the human diet using high-throughput QSAR predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valerio, Luis G.; Arvidson, Kirk B.; Chanderbhan, Ronald F.; Contrera, Joseph F.

    2007-01-01

    , comprised primarily of pharmaceutical, industrial and some natural products developed under an FDA-MDL cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA). The predictive performance for this group of dietary natural products and the control group was 97% sensitivity and 80% concordance. Specificity was marginal at 53%. This study finds that the in silico QSAR analysis employing this software's rodent carcinogenicity database is capable of identifying the rodent carcinogenic potential of naturally occurring organic molecules found in the human diet with a high degree of sensitivity. It is the first study to demonstrate successful QSAR predictive modeling of naturally occurring carcinogens found in the human diet using an external validation test. Further test validation of this software and expansion of the training data set for dietary chemicals will help to support the future use of such QSAR methods for screening and prioritizing the risk of dietary chemicals when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent

  13. Viscosity Prediction of Natural Gas Using the Friction Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeberg-Mikkelsen, Claus Kjær; Cisneros, Sergio; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2002-01-01

    Based on the concepts of the friction theory (f-theory) for viscosity modeling, a procedure is introduced for predicting the viscosity of hydrocarbon mixtures rich in one component, which is the case for natural gases. In this procedure, the mixture friction coefficients are estimated with mixing...... rules based on the values of the pure component friction coefficients. Since natural gases contain mainly methane, two f-theory models are combined, where the friction coefficients of methane are estimated by a seven-constant f-theory model directly fitted to methane viscosities, and the friction...... coefficients of the other components are estimated by the one-parameter general f-theory model. The viscosity predictions are performed with the SRK, the PR, and the PRSV equations of state, respectively. For recently measured viscosities of natural gases, the resultant AAD (0.5 to 0.8%) is in excellent...

  14. The Training Evaluation Inventory (TEI)--Evaluation of Training Design and Measurement of Training Outcomes for Predicting Training Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritzmann, Sandrina; Hagemann, Vera; Kluge, Annette

    2014-01-01

    Training evaluation in research and organisational contexts is vital to ensure informed decisions regarding the value of training. The present study describes the development of a valid and reliable training evaluation inventory (TEI), as it does not exist so far. The objectives were a) to construct an instrument that is theoretically and…

  15. 42 CFR 86.10 - Nature and purpose of training grants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Nature and purpose of training grants. 86.10 Section 86.10 Public Health PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES OCCUPATIONAL... AND HEALTH Occupational Safety and Health Training Grants § 86.10 Nature and purpose of training...

  16. Training for vigilance: using predictive power to evaluate feedback effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szalma, James L; Hancock, Peter A; Warm, Joel S; Dember, William N; Parsons, Kelley S

    2006-01-01

    We examined the effects of knowledge of results (KR) on vigilance accuracy and report the first use of positive and negative predictive power (PPP and NPP) to assess vigilance training effectiveness. Training individuals to detect infrequent signals among a plethora of nonsignals is critical to success in many failure-intolerant monitoring technologies. KR has been widely used for vigilance training, but the effect of the schedule of KR presentation on accuracy has been neglected. Previous research on training for vigilance has used signal detection metrics or hits and false alarms. In this study diagnosticity measures were applied to augment traditional analytic methods. We examined the effects of continuous KR and a partial-KR regimen versus a no-KR control on decision diagnosticity. Signal detection theory (SDT) analysis indicated that KR induced conservatism in responding but did not enhance sensitivity. However, KR in both forms equally enhanced PPP while selectively impairing NPP. There is a trade-off in the effectiveness of KR in reducing false alarms and misses. Together, SDT and PPP/NPP measures provide a more complete portrait of performance effects. PPP and NPP together provide another assessment technique for vigilance performance, and as additional diagnostic tools, these measures are potentially useful to the human factors community.

  17. Use of simplified methods for predicting natural resource damages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loreti, C.P.; Boehm, P.D.; Gundlach, E.R.; Healy, E.A.; Rosenstein, A.B.; Tsomides, H.J.; Turton, D.J.; Webber, H.M.

    1995-01-01

    To reduce transaction costs and save time, the US Department of the Interior (DOI) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed simplified methods for assessing natural resource damages from oil and chemical spills. DOI has proposed the use of two computer models, the Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Great Lakes Environments (NRDAM/GLE) and a revised Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) for predicting monetary damages for spills of oils and chemicals into the Great Lakes and coastal and marine environments. NOAA has used versions of these models to create Compensation Formulas, which it has proposed for calculating natural resource damages for oil spills of up to 50,000 gallons anywhere in the US. Based on a review of the documentation supporting the methods, the results of hundreds of sample runs of DOI's models, and the outputs of the thousands of model runs used to create NOAA's Compensation Formulas, this presentation discusses the ability of these simplified assessment procedures to make realistic damage estimates. The limitations of these procedures are described, and the need for validating the assumptions used in predicting natural resource injuries is discussed

  18. STUDENT PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR PLACEMENT TRAINING USING FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravi Kumar Rathore

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Proposed student prediction system is most vital approach which may be used to differentiate the student data/information on the basis of the student performance. Managing placement and training records in any larger organization is quite difficult as the student number are high; in such condition differentiation and classification on different categories becomes tedious. Proposed fuzzy inference system will classify the student data with ease and will be helpful to many educational organizations. There are lots of classification algorithms and statistical base technique which may be taken as good assets for classify the student data set in the education field. In this paper, Fuzzy Inference system has been applied to predict student performance which will help to identify performance of the students and also provides an opportunity to improve to performance. For instance, here we will classify the student’s data set for placement and non-placement classes.

  19. Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.

    2011-12-01

    M9 super-giant earthquake with huge tsunami devastated East Japan on 11 March, causing more than 20,000 casualties and serious damage of Fukushima nuclear plant. This earthquake was predicted neither short-term nor long-term. Seismologists were shocked because it was not even considered possible to happen at the East Japan subduction zone. However, it was not the only un-predicted earthquake. In fact, throughout several decades of the National Earthquake Prediction Project, not even a single earthquake was predicted. In reality, practically no effective research has been conducted for the most important short-term prediction. This happened because the Japanese National Project was devoted for construction of elaborate seismic networks, which was not the best way for short-term prediction. After the Kobe disaster, in order to parry the mounting criticism on their no success history, they defiantly changed their policy to "stop aiming at short-term prediction because it is impossible and concentrate resources on fundamental research", that meant to obtain "more funding for no prediction research". The public were and are not informed about this change. Obviously earthquake prediction would be possible only when reliable precursory phenomena are caught and we have insisted this would be done most likely through non-seismic means such as geochemical/hydrological and electromagnetic monitoring. Admittedly, the lack of convincing precursors for the M9 super-giant earthquake has adverse effect for us, although its epicenter was far out off shore of the range of operating monitoring systems. In this presentation, we show a new possibility of finding remarkable precursory signals, ironically, from ordinary seismological catalogs. In the frame of the new time domain termed natural time, an order parameter of seismicity, κ1, has been introduced. This is the variance of natural time kai weighted by normalised energy release at χ. In the case that Seismic Electric Signals

  20. Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

    2015-10-01

    One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Natural Growth Goals and Short-Term Training: A Boomerang Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pace, R. Wayne; Regan, Les; Miller, Peter; Dunn, Lee

    1998-01-01

    Undergraduates were divided into four groups: 76 received training and completed the Natural Growth Goals Inventory and Organizational Learning Survey as pre- and posttests; 76 completed the NGGI only; 30 the OLS only; and 75 were trained and completed posttests. Both pretesting and training had a negative or boomerang effect on perceptions of the…

  2. Recommendations for natural bodybuilding contest preparation: resistance and cardiovascular training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helms, E R; Fitschen, P J; Aragon, A A; Cronin, J; Schoenfeld, B J

    2015-03-01

    The anabolic effect of resistance training can mitigate muscle loss during contest preparation. In reviewing relevant literature, we recommend a periodized approach be utilized. Block and undulating models show promise. Muscle groups should be trained 2 times weekly or more, although high volume training may benefit from higher frequencies to keep volume at any one session from becoming excessive. Low to high (~3-15) repetitions can be utilized but most repetitions should occur in the 6-12 range using 70-80% of 1 repetition maximum. Roughly 40-70 reps per muscle group per session should be performed, however higher volume may be appropriate for advanced bodybuilders. Traditional rest intervals of 1-3 minutes are adequate, but longer intervals can be used. Tempo should allow muscular control of the load; 1-2 s concentric and 2-3 s eccentric tempos. Training to failure should be limited when performing heavy loads on taxing exercises, and primarily relegated to single-joint exercises and higher repetitions. A core of multi-joint exercises with some single-joint exercises to address specific muscle groups as needed should be used, emphasizing full range of motion and proper form. Cardiovascular training can be used to enhance fat loss. Interference with strength training adaptations increases concomitantly with frequency and duration of cardiovascular training. Thus, the lowest frequency and duration possible while achieving sufficient fat loss should be used. Full-body modalities or cycling may reduce interference. High intensities may as well; however, require more recovery. Fasted cardiovascular training may not have benefits over fed-state and could be detrimental.

  3. Liquefied natural gas tender crashworthiness in train-to-train collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-12

    This paper focuses on technical information to help support : development of alternative static requirements for the train-to-train : collision scenario. The goal of the static requirements is to : provide the same level of crashworthiness as the dyn...

  4. Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairweather, Ian; Crabtree, Robert; Hager, Stacey

    2008-01-01

    ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

  5. Strength Training: A Natural Prescription for Staying Healthy and Fit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Raymond, Ed.

    2003-01-01

    This newsletter highlights the importance of strength training in keeping older adults healthy and fit, explaining how it can forestall declines in strength and muscle mass, along with their attendant negative impact upon other metabolic functions and activities of daily living. Physical inactivity is common throughout the nation. Approximately 11…

  6. Empirical insights into the frequency and nature of multitasking on Dutch trains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Neerven, van R.J.C.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a study of the frequency and nature of multitasking on Dutch trains. Based on field observations on intercity and regional trains descriptive and model analyses were carried out. It appears that the most occurring task was ‘doing nothing’, followed by ‘Talking socially’ and

  7. Training Parents to Use the Natural Language Paradigm to Increase Their Autistic Children's Speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laski, Karen E.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Parents of four nonverbal and four echolalic autistic children, aged five-nine, were trained to increase their children's speech by using the Natural Language Paradigm. Following training, parents increased the frequency with which they required their children to speak, and children increased the frequency of their verbalizations in three…

  8. Predicting Attrition in a Military Special Program Training Command

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-20

    made by assessing additional psychological factors. Specifically, motivation (s) to enter the training program (e.g., intrinsic versus extrinsic ...this and other training programs. Motivations to enter the training program could be assessed using a measure such as the Work Extrinsic and...MEDICINE GRADUATE PROGRAMS Graduate Education Office (A 1045), 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda, MD 20814 APPROVAL OF THE DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN THE

  9. Characteristics of muscle dysmorphia in male football, weight training, and competitive natural and non-natural bodybuilding samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baghurst, Timothy; Lirgg, Cathy

    2009-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify differences in traits associated with muscle dysmorphia between collegiate football players (n=66), weight trainers for physique (n=115), competitive non-natural bodybuilders (n=47), and competitive natural bodybuilders (n=65). All participants completed demographic questionnaires in addition to the Muscle Dysmorphia Inventory (Rhea, Lantz, & Cornelius, 2004). Results revealed a significant main effect for group, and post hoc tests found that the non-natural bodybuilding group did not score significantly higher than the natural bodybuilding group on any subscale except for Pharmacological Use. Both the non-natural and natural bodybuilding groups scored significantly higher than those that weight trained for physique on the Dietary Behavior and Supplement Use subscales. The collegiate football players scored lowest on all subscales of the Muscle Dysmorphia Inventory except for Physique Protection where they scored highest. Findings are discussed with future research expounded.

  10. ACL-RSI and KOOS Measures Predict Normal Knee Function after ACL-SPORTS Training

    OpenAIRE

    White, Kathleen; Zeni, Joseph; Snyder-Mackler, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: After anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) athletes commonly report increased fear of re-injury and below normal knee function. Implementing a post-operative training protocol (ACL-SPORTS Training) to improve patient perceived knee function, may improve short term outcomes after surgery. Identifying pre-training measures that predict normal knee function after training may allow us to determine who may respond to the treatment intervention. The purpose of this study wa...

  11. Online sequential condition prediction method of natural circulation systems based on EOS-ELM and phase space reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hanying; Gao, Puzhen; Tan, Sichao; Tang, Jiguo; Yuan, Hongsheng

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •An online condition prediction method for natural circulation systems in NPP was proposed based on EOS-ELM. •The proposed online prediction method was validated using experimental data. •The training speed of the proposed method is significantly fast. •The proposed method can achieve good accuracy in wide parameter range. -- Abstract: Natural circulation design is widely used in the passive safety systems of advanced nuclear power reactors. The irregular and chaotic flow oscillations are often observed in boiling natural circulation systems so it is difficult for operators to monitor and predict the condition of these systems. An online condition forecasting method for natural circulation system is proposed in this study as an assisting technique for plant operators. The proposed prediction approach was developed based on Ensemble of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (EOS-ELM) and phase space reconstruction. Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is an online sequential learning neural network algorithm and EOS-ELM is the ensemble method of it. The proposed condition prediction method can be initiated by a small chunk of monitoring data and it can be updated by newly arrived data at very fast speed during the online prediction. Simulation experiments were conducted on the data of two natural circulation loops to validate the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed predication model can successfully recognize different types of flow oscillations and accurately forecast the trend of monitored plant variables. The influence of the number of hidden nodes and neural network inputs on prediction performance was studied and the proposed model can achieve good accuracy in a wide parameter range. Moreover, the comparison results show that the proposed condition prediction method has much faster online learning speed and better prediction accuracy than conventional neural network model.

  12. Predicting space telerobotic operator training performance from human spatial ability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Andrew M.; Oman, Charles M.; Galvan, Raquel; Natapoff, Alan

    2013-11-01

    Our goal was to determine whether existing tests of spatial ability can predict an astronaut's qualification test performance after robotic training. Because training astronauts to be qualified robotics operators is so long and expensive, NASA is interested in tools that can predict robotics performance before training begins. Currently, the Astronaut Office does not have a validated tool to predict robotics ability as part of its astronaut selection or training process. Commonly used tests of human spatial ability may provide such a tool to predict robotics ability. We tested the spatial ability of 50 active astronauts who had completed at least one robotics training course, then used logistic regression models to analyze the correlation between spatial ability test scores and the astronauts' performance in their evaluation test at the end of the training course. The fit of the logistic function to our data is statistically significant for several spatial tests. However, the prediction performance of the logistic model depends on the criterion threshold assumed. To clarify the critical selection issues, we show how the probability of correct classification vs. misclassification varies as a function of the mental rotation test criterion level. Since the costs of misclassification are low, the logistic models of spatial ability and robotic performance are reliable enough only to be used to customize regular and remedial training. We suggest several changes in tracking performance throughout robotics training that could improve the range and reliability of predictive models.

  13. Prediction of Running Injuries from Training Load: a Machine Learning Approach.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkhuis, Talko; Otter, Ruby; Velthuijsen, H.; Lemmink, Koen A.P.M.

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the running injuries based on selfreported training data on load is difficult. At present, coaches and researchers have no validated system to predict if a runner has an increased risk of injuries. We aim to develop an algorithm to predict the increase of the risk of a runner to

  14. Simple webs of natural environment theme as a result of sharing in science teacher training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapilouw, M. C.; Firman, H.; Redjeki, S.; Chandra, D. T.

    2018-03-01

    Thematic learning is one type of integrated science (Biology, Physics, Chemistry and Earth Science) in Science Education. This study is concerning about simple webs of natural environment theme in science learning, as one of training material in science teacher training program. Making simple web is a goal of first step in teacher training program. Every group explain their web illustration to other group. Twenty Junior High School science teacher above one education foundation participate in science teacher training program. In order to gather simple webs, sharing method was used in this first step of science teacher training. The result of this study is five different simple web of natural environment themes. These webs represent science learning in class VII/Semester I, class VII/Semester II, Class VIII, Class IX/Semester I, Class IX/Semester II based on basic competency in National Curriculum 2013. Each group discussed web of natural environment theme based on their learning experience in real class which basic competency and subject matters are linked with natural environment theme. As a conclusion, simple webs are potential to develop in the next step of science teacher training program and to be implemented in real class.

  15. Predicting Autonomous and Controlled Motivation to Transfer Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gegenfurtner, Andreas; Festner, Dagmar; Gallenberger, Wolfgang; Lehtinen, Erno; Gruber, Hans

    2009-01-01

    In spite of a broad consensus on the importance of motivation for the transfer of learning from training to the job in work organizations, studies investigating motivation to transfer are limited. This study combines the self-determination theory, the expectancy theory and the theory of planned behaviour to provide a theoretical framework for…

  16. Resistance training and predicted risk of coronary heart disease in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of resistance training, designed to prevent the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) based on the Framingham Risk Assessment (FRA) score. Twenty-five healthy sedentary men with low CHD risk were assigned to participate in a 16-week (three days per week) ...

  17. Who Is Going to College? Predicting Education Training from Pre-VR Consumer Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutin, Daniel L.; Wilson, Keith B.

    2012-01-01

    The relationship of receiving college and university training within the state vocational rehabilitation (VR) program to pre-VR consumer characteristics was investigated with a multiple direct logistic regression technique. A model containing 11 pre-VR characteristics predict the reception of college and university training for a multidisability…

  18. Individual Differences in Executive Functioning Predict Preschoolers' Improvement from Theory-of-Mind Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Jeannette E.; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Zelazo, Philip David

    2013-01-01

    Twenty-four 3.5-year-old children who initially showed poor performance on false-belief tasks participated in a training protocol designed to promote performance on these tasks. Our aim was to determine whether the extent to which children benefited from training was predicted by their performance on a battery of executive functioning tasks.…

  19. USAF Enlisted Air Traffic Controller Selection: Examination of the Predictive Validity of the FAA Air Traffic Selection and Training Battery versus Training Performance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Carretta, Thomas R; King, Raymond E

    2008-01-01

    .... The current study examined the utility of the FAA Air Traffic Selection and Training (AT-SAT) battery for incrementing the predictiveness of the ASVAB versus several enlisted ATC training criteria...

  20. Modeling the Temporal Nature of Human Behavior for Demographics Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Felbo, Bjarke; Sundsøy, Pål; Pentland, Alex

    2017-01-01

    Mobile phone metadata is increasingly used for humanitarian purposes in developing countries as traditional data is scarce. Basic demographic information is however often absent from mobile phone datasets, limiting the operational impact of the datasets. For these reasons, there has been a growing...... interest in predicting demographic information from mobile phone metadata. Previous work focused on creating increasingly advanced features to be modeled with standard machine learning algorithms. We here instead model the raw mobile phone metadata directly using deep learning, exploiting the temporal...... on both age and gender prediction using only the temporal modality in mobile metadata. We finally validate our method on low activity users and evaluate the modeling assumptions....

  1. Hypothesis, Prediction, and Conclusion: Using Nature of Science Terminology Correctly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwell, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper defines the terms "hypothesis," "prediction," and "conclusion" and shows how to use the terms correctly in scientific investigations in both the school and science education research contexts. The scientific method, or hypothetico-deductive (HD) approach, is described and it is argued that an understanding of the scientific method,…

  2. Maximizing lipocalin prediction through balanced and diversified training set and decision fusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Abhigyan; Subbiah, Karthikeyan

    2015-12-01

    Lipocalins are short in sequence length and perform several important biological functions. These proteins are having less than 20% sequence similarity among paralogs. Experimentally identifying them is an expensive and time consuming process. The computational methods based on the sequence similarity for allocating putative members to this family are also far elusive due to the low sequence similarity existing among the members of this family. Consequently, the machine learning methods become a viable alternative for their prediction by using the underlying sequence/structurally derived features as the input. Ideally, any machine learning based prediction method must be trained with all possible variations in the input feature vector (all the sub-class input patterns) to achieve perfect learning. A near perfect learning can be achieved by training the model with diverse types of input instances belonging to the different regions of the entire input space. Furthermore, the prediction performance can be improved through balancing the training set as the imbalanced data sets will tend to produce the prediction bias towards majority class and its sub-classes. This paper is aimed to achieve (i) the high generalization ability without any classification bias through the diversified and balanced training sets as well as (ii) enhanced the prediction accuracy by combining the results of individual classifiers with an appropriate fusion scheme. Instead of creating the training set randomly, we have first used the unsupervised Kmeans clustering algorithm to create diversified clusters of input patterns and created the diversified and balanced training set by selecting an equal number of patterns from each of these clusters. Finally, probability based classifier fusion scheme was applied on boosted random forest algorithm (which produced greater sensitivity) and K nearest neighbour algorithm (which produced greater specificity) to achieve the enhanced predictive performance

  3. Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

  4. Running speed during training and percent body fat predict race time in recreational male marathoners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barandun, Ursula; Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Klipstein, Andreas; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that personal best marathon time is a strong predictor of race time in male ultramarathoners. We aimed to determine variables predictive of marathon race time in recreational male marathoners by using the same characteristics of anthropometry and training as used for ultramarathoners. Anthropometric and training characteristics of 126 recreational male marathoners were bivariately and multivariately related to marathon race times. After multivariate regression, running speed of the training units (β = -0.52, P marathon race times. Marathon race time for recreational male runners may be estimated to some extent by using the following equation (r (2) = 0.44): race time ( minutes) = 326.3 + 2.394 × (percent body fat, %) - 12.06 × (speed in training, km/hours). Running speed during training sessions correlated with prerace percent body fat (r = 0.33, P = 0.0002). The model including anthropometric and training variables explained 44% of the variance of marathon race times, whereas running speed during training sessions alone explained 40%. Thus, training speed was more predictive of marathon performance times than anthropometric characteristics. The present results suggest that low body fat and running speed during training close to race pace (about 11 km/hour) are two key factors for a fast marathon race time in recreational male marathoner runners.

  5. Accurate approximation method for prediction of class I MHC affinities for peptides of length 8, 10 and 11 using prediction tools trained on 9mers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    Several accurate prediction systems have been developed for prediction of class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC):peptide binding. Most of these are trained on binding affinity data of primarily 9mer peptides. Here, we show how prediction methods trained on 9mer data can be used for accurate...

  6. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  7. Predicting richness effects on ecosystem function in natural communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dangles, Olivier; Crespo-Pérez, Verónica; Andino, Patricio

    2011-01-01

    rates in the field, although water discharge may also play a role locally. We also examined the relative contribution of the three most abundant shredders on decomposition rates by manipulating shredder richness and community composition in a field experiment. Transgressive overyielding was detected....... Despite the increased complexity of experimental and theoretical studies on the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (B-EF) relationship, a major challenge is to demonstrate whether the observed importance of biodiversity in controlled experimental systems also persists in nature. Due...... to their structural simplicity and their low levels of human impacts, extreme species-poor ecosystems may provide new insights into B-EF relationships in natural systems. We address this issue using shredder invertebrate communities and organic matter decomposition rates in 24 high-altitude (3200-3900 m) Neotropical...

  8. Natural gas consumption prediction in Slovenian industry – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačič Miha

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In accordance with the regulations of the Energy Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, each natural gas supplier regulates and determines the charges for the differences between the ordered (predicted and the actually supplied quantities of natural gas. Yearly charges for these differences represent up to 2% of supplied natural gas costs. All the natural gas users, especially industry, have huge problems finding the proper method for efficient natural gas consumption prediction and, consequently, the decreasing of mentioned costs. In this study, prediction of the natural gas consumption in Štore Steel Ltd. (steel plant is presented. On the basis of production data, several models for natural gas consumption have been developed using linear regression, genetic programming and artificial neural network methods. The genetic programming approach outperformed linear regression and artificial neural networks.

  9. Predictions of laminar natural convection in heated cavities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winters, K.H.

    1982-06-01

    Several examples of laminar, natural convection in heated cavities are discussed with illustrative calculations. These include convection in a square cavity at high Rayleigh number; in a narrow cavity at moderate aspect ratio; in a rectangular cavity heated from below; in a trapezoidal cavity, and in a rectangular cavity containing a conducting obstruction. The steady equations for the velocity, pressure and temperature are solved in the Boussinesq approximation, using a standard Galerkin formulation of the finite-element method. (author)

  10. Nature versus nurture: Predictability in low-temperature Ising dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, J.; Machta, J.; Newman, C. M.; Stein, D. L.

    2013-10-01

    Consider a dynamical many-body system with a random initial state subsequently evolving through stochastic dynamics. What is the relative importance of the initial state (“nature”) versus the realization of the stochastic dynamics (“nurture”) in predicting the final state? We examined this question for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet following an initial deep quench from T=∞ to T=0. We performed Monte Carlo studies on the overlap between “identical twins” raised in independent dynamical environments, up to size L=500. Our results suggest an overlap decaying with time as t-θh with θh=0.22±0.02; the same exponent holds for a quench to low but nonzero temperature. This “heritability exponent” may equal the persistence exponent for the two-dimensional Ising ferromagnet, but the two differ more generally.

  11. Prediction of Mass Flow Rate in Supersonic Natural Gas Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen Chuang

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The mass flow rate of natural gas through the supersonic separator was numerically calculated by various cubic equations of state. The numerical results show that the compressibility factor and specific heat ratio for ideal gas law diverge remarkably from real gas models at a high inlet pressure. Simultaneously, the deviation of mass flow calculated by the ideal and real gas models reaches over 10 %. The difference increases with the lower of the inlet temperature regardless of the inlet pressure. A higher back pressure results in an earlier location of the shock wave. The pressure ratio of 0.72 is the first threshold to get the separator work normally. The second threshold is 0.95, in which case the whole flow is subsonic and cannot reach the choked state. The shock position moves upstream with the real gas model compared to the ideal gas law in the cyclonic separation section.

  12. Prefrontal Cortex Structure Predicts Training-Induced Improvements in Multitasking Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verghese, Ashika; Garner, K G; Mattingley, Jason B; Dux, Paul E

    2016-03-02

    The ability to perform multiple, concurrent tasks efficiently is a much-desired cognitive skill, but one that remains elusive due to the brain's inherent information-processing limitations. Multitasking performance can, however, be greatly improved through cognitive training (Van Selst et al., 1999, Dux et al., 2009). Previous studies have examined how patterns of brain activity change following training (for review, see Kelly and Garavan, 2005). Here, in a large-scale human behavioral and imaging study of 100 healthy adults, we tested whether multitasking training benefits, assessed using a standard dual-task paradigm, are associated with variability in brain structure. We found that the volume of the rostral part of the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) predicted an individual's response to training. Critically, this association was observed exclusively in a task-specific training group, and not in an active-training control group. Our findings reveal a link between DLPFC structure and an individual's propensity to gain from training on a task that taps the limits of cognitive control. Cognitive "brain" training is a rapidly growing, multibillion dollar industry (Hayden, 2012) that has been touted as the panacea for a variety of disorders that result in cognitive decline. A key process targeted by such training is "cognitive control." Here, we combined an established cognitive control measure, multitasking ability, with structural brain imaging in a sample of 100 participants. Our goal was to determine whether individual differences in brain structure predict the extent to which people derive measurable benefits from a cognitive training regime. Ours is the first study to identify a structural brain marker-volume of left hemisphere dorsolateral prefrontal cortex-associated with the magnitude of multitasking performance benefits induced by training at an individual level. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/362638-08$15.00/0.

  13. Saliency predicts change detection in pictures of natural scenes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Michael J

    2005-01-01

    It has been proposed that the visual system encodes the salience of objects in the visual field in an explicit two-dimensional map that guides visual selective attention. Experiments were conducted to determine whether salience measurements applied to regions of pictures of outdoor scenes could predict the detection of changes in those regions. To obtain a quantitative measure of change detection, observers located changes in pairs of colour pictures presented across an interstimulus interval (ISI). Salience measurements were then obtained from different observers for image change regions using three independent methods, and all were positively correlated with change detection. Factor analysis extracted a single saliency factor that accounted for 62% of the variance contained in the four measures. Finally, estimates of the magnitude of the image change in each picture pair were obtained, using nine separate visual filters representing low-level vision features (luminance, colour, spatial frequency, orientation, edge density). None of the feature outputs was significantly associated with change detection or saliency. On the other hand it was shown that high-level (structural) properties of the changed region were related to saliency and to change detection: objects were more salient than shadows and more detectable when changed.

  14. Running speed during training and percent body fat predict race time in recreational male marathoners

    OpenAIRE

    Knechtle, Beat; Barandun,; Knechtle,Patrizia; Klipstein,; Rüst,Christoph Alexander; Rosemann,Thomas; Lepers,Romuald

    2012-01-01

     Background: Recent studies have shown that personal best marathon time is a strong predictor of race time in male ultramarathoners. We aimed to determine variables predictive of marathon race time in recreational male marathoners by using the same characteristics of anthropometry and training as used for ultramarathoners.Methods: Anthropometric and training characteristics of 126 recreational male marathoners were bivariately and multivariately related to marathon race times.Results...

  15. Memory self-efficacy predicts responsiveness to inductive reasoning training in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Brennan R; Jackson, Joshua J; Hill, Patrick L; Gao, Xuefei; Roberts, Brent W; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L

    2012-01-01

    In the current study, we assessed the relationship between memory self-efficacy at pretest and responsiveness to inductive reasoning training in a sample of older adults. Participants completed a measure of self-efficacy assessing beliefs about memory capacity. Participants were then randomly assigned to a waitlist control group or an inductive reasoning training intervention. Latent change score models were used to examine the moderators of change in inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning showed clear improvements in the training group compared with the control. Within the training group, initial memory capacity beliefs significantly predicted change in inductive reasoning such that those with higher levels of capacity beliefs showed greater responsiveness to the intervention. Further analyses revealed that self-efficacy had effects on how trainees allocated time to the training materials over the course of the intervention. Results indicate that self-referential beliefs about cognitive potential may be an important factor contributing to plasticity in adulthood.

  16. Predicting Antitumor Activity of Peptides by Consensus of Regression Models Trained on a Small Data Sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanka Jerić

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Predicting antitumor activity of compounds using regression models trained on a small number of compounds with measured biological activity is an ill-posed inverse problem. Yet, it occurs very often within the academic community. To counteract, up to some extent, overfitting problems caused by a small training data, we propose to use consensus of six regression models for prediction of biological activity of virtual library of compounds. The QSAR descriptors of 22 compounds related to the opioid growth factor (OGF, Tyr-Gly-Gly-Phe-Met with known antitumor activity were used to train regression models: the feed-forward artificial neural network, the k-nearest neighbor, sparseness constrained linear regression, the linear and nonlinear (with polynomial and Gaussian kernel support vector machine. Regression models were applied on a virtual library of 429 compounds that resulted in six lists with candidate compounds ranked by predicted antitumor activity. The highly ranked candidate compounds were synthesized, characterized and tested for an antiproliferative activity. Some of prepared peptides showed more pronounced activity compared with the native OGF; however, they were less active than highly ranked compounds selected previously by the radial basis function support vector machine (RBF SVM regression model. The ill-posedness of the related inverse problem causes unstable behavior of trained regression models on test data. These results point to high complexity of prediction based on the regression models trained on a small data sample.

  17. Prediction about chaotic times series of natural circulation flow under rolling motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Can; Cai Qi; Guo Li; Yan Feng

    2014-01-01

    The paper have proposed a chaotic time series prediction model, which combined phase space reconstruction with support vector machines. The model has been used to predict the coolant volume flow, in which a synchronous parameter optimization method was brought up based on particle swarm optimization algorithm, since the numerical value selection of related parameter was a key factor for the prediction precision. The average relative error of prediction values and actual observation values was l,5% and relative precision was 0.9879. The result indicated that the model could apply for the natural circulation coolant volume flow prediction under rolling motion condition with high accuracy and robustness. (authors)

  18. Technical skill set training in natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery: how should we approach it?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Nugent, Emmeline

    2011-03-01

    The boundaries in minimally invasive techniques are continually being pushed further. Recent years have brought new and exciting changes with the advent of natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery. With the evolution of this field of surgery come challenges in the development of new instruments and the actual steps of the procedure. Included in these challenges is the idea of developing a proficiency-based curriculum for training.

  19. Training the Recurrent neural network by the Fuzzy Min-Max algorithm for fault prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zemouri, Ryad; Racoceanu, Daniel; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Minca, Eugenia; Filip, Florin

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a training technique of a Recurrent Radial Basis Function neural network for fault prediction. We use the Fuzzy Min-Max technique to initialize the k-center of the RRBF neural network. The k-means algorithm is then applied to calculate the centers that minimize the mean square error of the prediction task. The performances of the k-means algorithm are then boosted by the Fuzzy Min-Max technique.

  20. The Gender Issues and the Nature of Science in the Teacher Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bettina Heerdt

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to understand and explain the teaching knowledge mobilized during a process of explicit-reflective formation of the Nature of Science, and the inherent gender relations in this dynamic. To achieve this goal it was elaborated a Didactic Unit entitled construction of scientific knowledge and gender visibility in Science. It took part in the training course 15 teachers in the areas of Humanities and Natural Sciences. This is a qualitative research. During the training process the participants’ speeches were video recorded and after transcribed and analyzed according to the thematic content analysis. Empirical data analysis allowed to show, through deductive inferences, different theoretical perspectives in coexisting traditional and linear discourse and those who perceive Science and Gender as a process of human construction, besides the lack of epistemological discussions and historical aspects of science involving gender issues. Another recurring discourse is the naturalization and the denial of the existence of gender issues in which the male-dominated lines are more articulated, which shows a resistance to feminist perspective. Thus, we reaffirm the need for teacher training explicit and reflective because gender issues are not self-evident, and the continuity of research to discuss these issues.

  1. Action oriented training of natural resource management : case study of community- based natural resource management in Wodebeyesus Village, Debaitilatgin Woreda, Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassa, H.S.

    2008-01-01

    Development is largely perceived as a process of building capacities, hence empowering people through training is to able to handle their affairs by them selves. The research examined the practical significance of action oriented training as a basic approach for sustainable management of natural

  2. The Prediction of Training Proficiency in Firefighters: A Study of Predictive Validity in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Berges

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study provides results of criterion validity in the selection of firefighters in Spain. The predictors were cognitive skills, job knowledge, and physical aptitudes, and the criterion was training proficiency. The process involves 639 candidates, but only 44 complete successfully the selection process. Our results support previous evidence showing that general cognitive ability is the best predictor of training proficiency, with an operational validity of .57. With respect to the other predictors, job knowledge presented an operational validity of .55 and physical tests of .49. In addition, multiple regression analysis showed that cognitive aptitude explains 33% of the variance, but when physical aptitudes are included the explained variance increases to 50%. If we also add job knowledge, explained variance increases to 55%. Our study offers recent results of criterion validity in a barely investigated job, gathered in a country other than the one where prior research had been carried out.

  3. Prediction to natural circulation in semiscale SBLOCA test, S-NC-8B

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Young Seok; Seul, Kwang Won; Lee, Sukho; Kim, Hho Jung

    1995-01-01

    Natural circulation and the associated thermal-hydraulic behavior are predicted by RELAP5/MOD3.1 code against the test S-NC-8B, which simulated 0.1% equivalent SBLOCA in PWR. The Semiscale Mod-2A facility and the test-specific initial/boundary condition are modeled. The calculation result is compared with the experiment data in terms of natural circulation characteristic and the code predictability is evaluated on natural circulation. As a result, flow rate during single-and two-phase natural circulation modes is well predicted and slightly overpredicted with oscillation in transition and reflux regimes. Additional sensitivity calculations are attempted with different discharge coefficient and break modeling to investigate the break flow effect

  4. Predictive Function Control for Communication-Based Train Control (CBTC Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing Bu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In Communication-Based Train Control (CBTC systems, random transmission delays and packet drops are inevitable in the wireless networks, which could result in unnecessary traction, brakes or even emergency brakes of trains, losses of line capacity and passenger dissatisfaction. This paper applies predictive function control technology with a mixed H2/∞ control approach to improve the control performances. The controller is in the state feedback form and satisfies the requirement of quadratic input and state constraints. A linear matrix inequality (LMI approach is developed to solve the control problem. The proposed method attenuates disturbances by incorporating H2/∞ into the control scheme. The control command from the automatic train operation (ATO is included in the reward function to optimize the train's running profile. The influence of transmission delays and packet drops is alleviated through improving the performances of the controller. Simulation results show that the method is effective to improve the performances and robustness of CBTC systems.

  5. Improvements to executive function during exercise training predict maintenance of physical activity over the following year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John eBest

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that exercise training benefits cognitive, neural, and physical health markers in older adults. It is likely that these positive effects will diminish if participants return to sedentary lifestyles following training cessation. Theory posits that that the neurocognitive processes underlying self-regulation, namely executive function (EF, are important to maintaining positive health behaviors. Therefore, we examined whether better EF performance in older women would predict greater adherence to routine physical activity (PA over 1 year following a 12-month resistance exercise training randomized controlled trial. The study sample consisted of 125 community-dwelling women aged 65 to 75 years old. Our primary outcome measure was self-reported PA, as measured by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE, assessed on a monthly basis from month 13 to month 25. Executive function was assessed using the Stroop Test at baseline (month 0 and post-training (month 12. Latent growth curve analyses showed that, on average, PA decreased during the follow-up period but at a decelerating rate. Women who made greater improvements to EF during the training period showed better adherence to PA during the 1-year follow-up period (β = -.36, p .10. Overall, these findings suggest that improving EF plays an important role in whether older women maintain higher levels of PA following exercise training and that this association is only apparent after training when environmental support for PA is low.

  6. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  7. Psychomotor testing predicts rate of skill acquisition for proficiency-based laparoscopic skills training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanidis, Dimitrios; Korndorffer, James R; Black, F William; Dunne, J Bruce; Sierra, Rafael; Touchard, Cheri L; Rice, David A; Markert, Ronald J; Kastl, Peter R; Scott, Daniel J

    2006-08-01

    Laparoscopic simulator training translates into improved operative performance. Proficiency-based curricula maximize efficiency by tailoring training to meet the needs of each individual; however, because rates of skill acquisition vary widely, such curricula may be difficult to implement. We hypothesized that psychomotor testing would predict baseline performance and training duration in a proficiency-based laparoscopic simulator curriculum. Residents (R1, n = 20) were enrolled in an IRB-approved prospective study at the beginning of the academic year. All completed the following: a background information survey, a battery of 12 innate ability measures (5 motor, and 7 visual-spatial), and baseline testing on 3 validated simulators (5 videotrainer [VT] tasks, 12 virtual reality [minimally invasive surgical trainer-virtual reality, MIST-VR] tasks, and 2 laparoscopic camera navigation [LCN] tasks). Participants trained to proficiency, and training duration and number of repetitions were recorded. Baseline test scores were correlated to skill acquisition rate. Cutoff scores for each predictive test were calculated based on a receiver operator curve, and their sensitivity and specificity were determined in identifying slow learners. Only the Cards Rotation test correlated with baseline simulator ability on VT and LCN. Curriculum implementation required 347 man-hours (6-person team) and 795,000 dollars of capital equipment. With an attendance rate of 75%, 19 of 20 residents (95%) completed the curriculum by the end of the academic year. To complete training, a median of 12 hours (range, 5.5-21), and 325 repetitions (range, 171-782) were required. Simulator score improvement was 50%. Training duration and repetitions correlated with prior video game and billiard exposure, grooved pegboard, finger tap, map planning, Rey Figure Immediate Recall score, and baseline performance on VT and LCN. The map planning cutoff score proved most specific in identifying slow learners

  8. Improving students' meaningful learning on the predictive nature of quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Alves de Carvalho Neto

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with research about teaching quantum mechanics to 3rd year high school students and their meaningful learning of its predictive aspect; it is based on the Master’s dissertation of one of the authors (CARVALHO NETO, 2006. While teaching quantum mechanics, we emphasized its predictive and essentially probabilistic nature, based on Niels Bohr’s complementarity interpretation (BOHR, 1958. In this context, we have discussed the possibility of predicting measurement results in well-defined experimental contexts, even for individual events. Interviews with students reveal that they have used quantum mechanical ideas, suggesting their meaningful learning of the essentially probabilistic predictions of quantum mechanics.

  9. Natural training tools of informatics in conditions of embodied and mental approach realization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria A. Barkhatova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern processes of globalization and informatization of human activity cause the necessity of change of the educational paradigm in the field of information training of a person, focused on the formation of the strong fundamental knowledge and abilities, which are necessary for person’s information activities and self-education during all life.In connection with these requirements, it is necessary to pay attention to new approaches in education, based on achievements of cognitive science and modern pedagogic. One of such approaches is embodied and mental approach. The paper is devoted to the description of a way of realization of embodied and mental approach in training of informatics through application of the natural tools, providing the fullest and deep understanding of the educational material, and development of cognitive abilities of students.In the paper the theoretical analysis of psychology-pedagogical and methodical literature on a research subject is carried out, results are generalized, natural tools are modeled and results of their partial approbation are described. Achievement of necessary quality of education is offered due to the use of modern techniques, focused on the development of cognitive abilities and improvement of quality of the knowledge. In the conditions of information education, the combination of embodied and mental approaches will allow to acquaint students with the essence of the studied subject due to activation of motor area of the memory and the kinesthetic and visual perception channels. The instrument of realization of this idea is offered to use natural tools in informatics, what is actualized by age features of cognitive abilities of students and individual requirements to ways of perception and mastering of the material, matched according to the level of their knowledge.The research results describe the models of natural tools, developed by students and lecturers of the basic Department of Informatics

  10. An evidence-based decision assistance model for predicting training outcome in juvenile guide dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Naomi D; Craigon, Peter J; Blythe, Simon A; England, Gary C W; Asher, Lucy

    2017-01-01

    Working dog organisations, such as Guide Dogs, need to regularly assess the behaviour of the dogs they train. In this study we developed a questionnaire-style behaviour assessment completed by training supervisors of juvenile guide dogs aged 5, 8 and 12 months old (n = 1,401), and evaluated aspects of its reliability and validity. Specifically, internal reliability, temporal consistency, construct validity, predictive criterion validity (comparing against later training outcome) and concurrent criterion validity (comparing against a standardised behaviour test) were evaluated. Thirty-nine questions were sourced either from previously published literature or created to meet requirements identified via Guide Dogs staff surveys and staff feedback. Internal reliability analyses revealed seven reliable and interpretable trait scales named according to the questions within them as: Adaptability; Body Sensitivity; Distractibility; Excitability; General Anxiety; Trainability and Stair Anxiety. Intra-individual temporal consistency of the scale scores between 5-8, 8-12 and 5-12 months was high. All scales excepting Body Sensitivity showed some degree of concurrent criterion validity. Predictive criterion validity was supported for all seven scales, since associations were found with training outcome, at at-least one age. Thresholds of z-scores on the scales were identified that were able to distinguish later training outcome by identifying 8.4% of all dogs withdrawn for behaviour and 8.5% of all qualified dogs, with 84% and 85% specificity. The questionnaire assessment was reliable and could detect traits that are consistent within individuals over time, despite juvenile dogs undergoing development during the study period. By applying thresholds to scores produced from the questionnaire this assessment could prove to be a highly valuable decision-making tool for Guide Dogs. This is the first questionnaire-style assessment of juvenile dogs that has shown value in predicting

  11. Predicting Workplace Transfer of Learning: A Study of Adult Learners Enrolled in a Continuing Professional Education Training Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nafukho, Fredrick Muyia; Alfred, Mary; Chakraborty, Misha; Johnson, Michelle; Cherrstrom, Catherine A.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The primary purpose of this study was to predict transfer of learning to workplace among adult learners enrolled in a continuing professional education (CPE) training program, specifically training courses offered through face-to-face, blended and online instruction formats. The study examined the predictive capacity of trainee…

  12. Identification of PPARgamma partial agonists of natural origin (II: in silico prediction in natural extracts with known antidiabetic activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guasch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts have played an important role in the prevention and treatment of diseases and are important sources for drug discovery. However, to be effectively used in these processes, natural extracts must be characterized through the identification of their active compounds and their modes of action. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and using a previously developed virtual screening procedure (carefully validated experimentally, we have predicted as potential peroxisome proliferators-activated receptor gamma (PPARγ partial agonists 12 molecules from 11 extracts known to have antidiabetic activity. Six of these molecules are similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity but whose mechanism of action is unknown. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be the bioactive molecules responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of the extracts containing them. In addition, we have also identified as potential PPARγ partial agonists 10 molecules from 16 plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity but that are related (i.e., they are from the same genus to plants with known antidiabetic properties. None of the 22 molecules that we predict as PPARγ partial agonists show chemical similarity with a group of 211 known PPARγ partial agonists obtained from the literature. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide a new hypothesis about the active molecules of natural extracts with antidiabetic properties and their mode of action. We also suggest plants with undescribed antidiabetic activity that may contain PPARγ partial agonists. These plants represent a new source of potential antidiabetic extracts. Consequently, our work opens the door to the discovery of new antidiabetic extracts and molecules that can be of use, for instance, in the design of new antidiabetic drugs or functional foods focused

  13. ACHIEVING THE NATURAL VOICE: THE ANALYSIS OF THE LINKLATER METHOD FROM A TRAINING PERSPECTİVE–

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asli YILMAZ DAVUTOGLU

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the 20th century, one of the most widespread of the voice training methods that start with the concepts “natural voice” and “the rediscovery of voice” is the Linklater Method. The primary target group of this method is actors. With its exercises designed for the "reconstruction of the body, the voice and the mind", this method aims at utilizing the innate voice capacity. As a multidisciplinary method fostered by many a scientific discipline and Eastern teaching, Linklater method comes with a language that is imbued with sophisticated and metaphorical expressions, scientific terminology and acting jargon, which makes the method prone to false and/or superficial references. The target of the present study is to explicate with a “trainer's perspective” the fundamental concepts and propositions of the Linklater Method, most notably the “natural voice”. Also, the present study aims at analysing the relation between the basic practices of the method and recent scientific data, thus examining the mental substructure these practices are based on and their physical/technical goals. In this direction, the present study involves the adopting of a general framework with respect to the inclinations and scientific sources of voice training in the 20th century that affected Linklater's propositions, a simplified summarisation of the neuro-anatomic process producing the voice, the selection of exercises on which the principles and goals of the method can be seen concretely and the grouping of these exercises under titles pertaining to the four basic steps of voice production. In the conclusion part of the study, it is argued that this method, despite being regarded as “alternative/experimental” when compared to conventional methods in Turkey, is one of the mainstream methods in contemporary voice training and that it is shaped through a multi-purpose system whose aim is not only voice training but also to develop the creativity and

  14. Time course of the hemoglobin mass response to natural altitude training in elite endurance cyclists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvican, L; Martin, D; Quod, M; Stephens, B; Sassi, A; Gore, C

    2012-02-01

    To determine the time course of hemoglobin mass (Hb(mass)) to natural altitude training, Hb(mass), erythropoietin [EPO], reticulocytes, ferritin and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) were measured in 13 elite cyclists during, and 10 days after, 3 weeks of sea level (n=5) or altitude (n=8, 2760 m) training. Mean Hb(mass), with a typical error of ∼2%, increased during the first 11 days at altitude (mean ± standard deviation 2.9 ± 2.0%) and was 3.5 ± 2.5% higher than baseline after 19 days. [EPO] increased 64.2 ± 18.8% after 2 nights at altitude but was not different from baseline after 12 nights. Hb(mass) and [EPO] did not increase in sea level. Reticulocytes (%) were slightly elevated in altitude at Days 5 and 12 (18.9 ± 17.7% and 20.4 ± 25.3%), sTfR was elevated at Day 12 (18.9 ± 15.0%), but both returned to baseline by Day 20. Hb(mass) and [EPO] decreased on descent to sea level while ferritin increased. The mean increase in Hb(mass) observed after 11 days (∼300 h) of altitude training was beyond the measurement error and consitent with the mean increase after 300 h of simulated live high:train low altitude. Our results suggest that in elite cyclists, Hb(mass) increases progressively with 3 weeks of natural altitude exposure, with greater increases expected as exposure persists. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  15. Heart rate variability in prediction of individual adaptation to endurance training in recreational endurance runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesterinen, V; Häkkinen, K; Hynynen, E; Mikkola, J; Hokka, L; Nummela, A

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether nocturnal heart rate variability (HRV) can be used to predict changes in endurance performance during 28 weeks of endurance training. The training was divided into 14 weeks of basic training (BTP) and 14 weeks of intensive training periods (ITP). Endurance performance characteristics, nocturnal HRV, and serum hormone concentrations were measured before and after both training periods in 28 recreational endurance runners. During the study peak treadmill running speed (Vpeak ) improved by 7.5 ± 4.5%. No changes were observed in HRV indices after BTP, but after ITP, these indices increased significantly (HFP: 1.9%, P=0.026; TP: 1.7%, P=0.007). Significant correlations were observed between the change of Vpeak and HRV indices (TP: r=0.75, PHRV among recreational endurance runners, it seems that moderate- and high-intensity training are needed. This study showed that recreational endurance runners with a high HRV at baseline improved their endurance running performance after ITP more than runners with low baseline HRV. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  16. Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Wolock, D.M.; Meador, M.R.; Norris, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also

  17. Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Motte, Fabrice; Fouilloy, Alexis; Notton, Gilles; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2017-01-01

    Integration of unpredictable renewable energy sources into electrical networks intensifies the complexity of the grid management due to their intermittent and unforeseeable nature. Because of the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. Electrical operators need an estimation of the future production. For nowcasting and short term forecasting, the usual technics based on machine learning need large historical data sets of good quality during the training phase of predictors. However data are not always available and induce an advanced maintenance of meteorological stations, making the method inapplicable for poor instrumented or isolated sites. In this work, we propose intuitive methodologies based on the Kalman filter use (also known as linear quadratic estimation), able to predict a global radiation time series without the need of historical data. The accuracy of these methods is compared to other classical data driven methods, for different horizons of prediction and time steps. The proposed approach shows interesting capabilities allowing to improve quasi-systematically the prediction. For one to 10 h horizons Kalman model performances are competitive in comparison to more sophisticated models such as ANN which require both consistent historical data sets and computational resources. - Highlights: • Solar radiation forecasting with time series formalism. • Trainless approach compared to machine learning methods. • Very simple method dedicated to solar irradiation forecasting with high accuracy.

  18. Predicting Emotions in Facial Expressions from the Annotations in Naturally Occurring First Encounters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Navarretta, Costanza

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the automatic identification of emotions from the manual annotations of the shape and functions of facial expressions in a Danish corpus of video recorded naturally occurring first encounters. More specifically, a support vector classified is trained on the corpus annotations...... to identify emotions in facial expressions. In the classification experiments, we test to what extent emotions expressed in naturally-occurring conversations can be identified automatically by a classifier trained on the manual annotations of the shape of facial expressions and co-occurring speech tokens. We...... also investigate the relation between emotions and the communicative functions of facial expressions. Both emotion labels and their values in a three dimensional space are identified. The three dimensions are Pleasure, Arousal and Dominance. The results of our experiments indicate that the classifiers...

  19. ACADEMIC TRAINING: Probing nature with high precision; particle traps, laser spectroscopy and optical combs

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2002-01-01

    17, 18, 19 June LECTURE SERIES from 11.00 to 12.00 hrs - Auditorium, bldg. 500 Probing nature with high precision; particle traps, laser spectroscopy and optical combs by G. GABRIELSE / Harvard University, USA Experiments with atomic energy scales probe nature and its symmetries with exquisite precision. Particle traps allow the manipulation of single charged particles for months at a time, allow the most accurate comparison of theory and experiment, and promise to allow better measurement of fundamental quantities like the fine structure constant. Ions and atoms can be probed with lasers that are phase locked to microwave frequency standards via optical combs, thus calibrating optical sources in terms of the official cesium second. A series of three lectures will illustrate what can be measured and discuss key techniques.  ACADEMIC TRAINING Françoise Benz Tel. 73127 francoise.benz@cern.ch

  20. Training of panellists for the sensory control of bottled natural mineral water in connection with water chemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey-Salgueiro, Ledicia; Gosálbez-García, Aitana; Pérez-Lamela, Concepción; Simal-Gándara, Jesús; Falqué-López, Elena

    2013-11-01

    As bottled mineral water market is increasing in the world (especially in emergent and developed countries), the development of a simple protocol to train a panel to evaluate sensory properties would be a useful tool for natural drinking water industry. A sensory protocol was developed to evaluate bottled natural mineral water (17 still and 10 carbonated trademarks). The tasting questionnaire included 13 attributes for still water plus overall impression and they were sorted by: colour hues, transparency and brightness, odour/aroma and taste/flavour/texture and 2 more for carbonated waters (bubbles and effervescence). The training lasted two months with, at least, 10 sessions, was adequate to evaluate bottled natural mineral water. To confirm the efficiency of the sensory training procedure two sensory groups formed the whole panel. One trained panel (6 persons) and one professional panel (6 sommeliers) and both participated simultaneously in the water tasting evaluation of 3 sample lots. Similar average scores obtained from trained and professional judges, with the same water trademarks, confirmed the usefulness of the training protocol. The differences obtained for trained panel in the first lot confirm the necessity to train always before a sensory procedure. A sensory water wheel is proposed to guide the training in bottled mineral water used for drinking, in connection with their chemical mineral content. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Fuzzy Constrained Predictive Optimal Control of High Speed Train with Actuator Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the problem of fuzzy constrained predictive optimal control of high speed train considering the effect of actuator dynamics. The dynamics feature of the high speed train is modeled as a cascade of cars connected by flexible couplers, and the formulation is mathematically transformed into a Takagi-Sugeno (T-S fuzzy model. The goal of this study is to design a state feedback control law at each decision step to enhance safety, comfort, and energy efficiency of high speed train subject to safety constraints on the control input. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, the problem of optimizing an upper bound on the cruise control cost function subject to input constraints is reduced to a convex optimization problem involving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Furthermore, we analyze the influences of second-order actuator dynamics on the fuzzy constrained predictive controller, which shows risk of potentially deteriorating the overall system. Employing backstepping method, an actuator compensator is proposed to accommodate for the influence of the actuator dynamics. The experimental results show that with the proposed approach high speed train can track the desired speed, the relative coupler displacement between the neighbouring cars is stable at the equilibrium state, and the influence of actuator dynamics is reduced, which demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  2. Towards Subject-Specific Strength Training Design through Predictive Use of Musculoskeletal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Plüss

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Lower extremity dysfunction is often associated with hip muscle strength deficiencies. Detailed knowledge of the muscle forces generated in the hip under specific external loading conditions enables specific structures to be trained. The aim of this study was to find the most effective movement type and loading direction to enable the training of specific parts of the hip muscles using a standing posture and a pulley system. In a novel approach to release the predictive power of musculoskeletal modelling techniques based on inverse dynamics, flexion/extension and ab-/adduction movements were virtually created. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, three hip orientations and an external loading force that was systematically rotated around the body were simulated using a state-of-the art OpenSim model in order to establish ideal designs for training of the anterior and posterior parts of the M. gluteus medius (GM. The external force direction as well as the hip orientation greatly influenced the muscle forces in the different parts of the GM. No setting was found for simultaneous training of the anterior and posterior parts with a muscle force higher than 50% of the maximum. Importantly, this study has demonstrated the use of musculoskeletal models as an approach to predict muscle force variations for different strength and rehabilitation exercise variations.

  3. 3D Cloud Field Prediction using A-Train Data and Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Validation of cloud process parameterizations used in global climate models (GCMs) would greatly benefit from observed 3D cloud fields at the size comparable to that of a GCM grid cell. For the highest resolution simulations, surface grid cells are on the order of 100 km by 100 km. CloudSat/CALIPSO data provides 1 km width of detailed vertical cloud fraction profile (CFP) and liquid and ice water content (LWC/IWC). This work utilizes four machine learning algorithms to create nonlinear regressions of CFP, LWC, and IWC data using radiances, surface type and location of measurement as predictors and applies the regression equations to off-track locations generating 3D cloud fields for 100 km by 100 km domains. The CERES-CloudSat-CALIPSO-MODIS (C3M) merged data set for February 2007 is used. Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks, Gaussian Processes and Decision Trees are trained on 1000 km of continuous C3M data. Accuracy is computed using existing vertical profiles that are excluded from the training data and occur within 100 km of the training data. Accuracy of the four algorithms is compared. Average accuracy for one day of predicted data is 86% for the most successful algorithm. The methodology for training the algorithms, determining valid prediction regions and applying the equations off-track is discussed. Predicted 3D cloud fields are provided as inputs to the Ed4 NASA LaRC Fu-Liou radiative transfer code and resulting TOA radiances compared to observed CERES/MODIS radiances. Differences in computed radiances using predicted profiles and observed radiances are compared.

  4. A prediction method of natural gas hydrate formation in deepwater gas well and its application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Guo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available To prevent the deposition of natural gas hydrate in deepwater gas well, the hydrate formation area in wellbore must be predicted. Herein, by comparing four prediction methods of temperature in pipe with field data and comparing five prediction methods of hydrate formation with experiment data, a method based on OLGA & PVTsim for predicting the hydrate formation area in wellbore was proposed. Meanwhile, The hydrate formation under the conditions of steady production, throttling and shut-in was predicted by using this method based on a well data in the South China Sea. The results indicate that the hydrate formation area decreases with the increase of gas production, inhibitor concentrations and the thickness of insulation materials and increases with the increase of thermal conductivity of insulation materials and shutdown time. Throttling effect causes a plunge in temperature and pressure in wellbore, thus leading to an increase of hydrate formation area.

  5. Teacher training on the nature of science through action-research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel Vázquez-Alonso

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nature of science teaching is essential for scientific and technological literacy, but teacher training is poor due to the lack of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK of topics on the nature of science and technology (NS&,T. This article addresses the development of the PCK through the self-training of a teacher, by describing the process of curriculum ownership, change and self-regulation, to teach the students the topic “observation in science”. Since action-research is the frame of this study, the teacher reflects and researches his own practice, with the help of some tools to make explicit the developed PCK. The results show the features of the PCK developed by the teacher, and how the teacher becomes aware that the PCK-NS&,T integrative model, the different teaching contexts in the classroom, and the reflective and explicit teaching processes are effective to teach NS&,T, as they improve students’ understanding of the theory-laden of observations and develop motivation towards consensus argumentation and decision making, autonomous learning, sharing team work, self-reflection and dialogue.

  6. SU-G-JeP3-09: Tumor Location Prediction Using Natural Respiratory Volume for Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy (RGRT): System Verification Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, M; Jung, J; Yoon, D; Shin, H; Kim, S; Suh, T [The catholic university of Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Respiratory gated radiation therapy (RGRT) gives accurate results when a patient’s breathing is stable and regular. Thus, the patient should be fully aware during respiratory pattern training before undergoing the RGRT treatment. In order to bypass the process of respiratory pattern training, we propose a target location prediction system for RGRT that uses only natural respiratory volume, and confirm its application. Methods: In order to verify the proposed target location prediction system, an in-house phantom set was used. This set involves a chest phantom including target, external markers, and motion generator. Natural respiratory volume signals were generated using the random function in MATLAB code. In the chest phantom, the target takes a linear motion based on the respiratory signal. After a four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scan of the in-house phantom, the motion trajectory was derived as a linear equation. The accuracy of the linear equation was compared with that of the motion algorithm used by the operating motion generator. In addition, we attempted target location prediction using random respiratory volume values. Results: The correspondence rate of the linear equation derived from the 4DCT images with the motion algorithm of the motion generator was 99.41%. In addition, the average error rate of target location prediction was 1.23% for 26 cases. Conclusion: We confirmed the applicability of our proposed target location prediction system for RGRT using natural respiratory volume. If additional clinical studies can be conducted, a more accurate prediction system can be realized without requiring respiratory pattern training.

  7. The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, C. R.

    1998-09-01

    The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

  8. Exercise training raises daily activity stronger than predicted from exercise capacity in patients with COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behnke, Michaela; Wewel, Alexandra R; Kirsten, Detlef; Jörres, Rudolf A; Magnussen, Helgo

    2005-06-01

    The 6-min walking (6MWD) and 6-min treadmill distance (6MTD) are often used as measures of exercise performance in patients with COPD. The aim of our study was to assess their relationship to daily activity in the course of an exercise training program. Eighty-eight patients with stable COPD (71m/17f; mean +/- SD age, 60 +/-8 year; FEV1, 43+/-14% pred) were recruited, 66 of whom performed a hospital-based 10-day walking training, whereas 22 were treated as control. On day 16MTD, and on days 8 and 10, 6MTD and 6MWD were determined. In addition, patients used an accelerometer (TriTrac-R3D) to record 24 h-activity, whereby training sessions were excluded. In both groups there was a linear relationship (r > or = 0.84 and P daily activity did not markedly vary with exercise capacity under baseline conditions. Participation in a training program increased activity significantly stronger than predicted from the gain in exercise capacity. This underlines the importance of non-physiological, patient-centered factors associated with training in COPD.

  9. Habit strength is predicted by activity dynamics in goal-directed brain systems during training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwosta, Katharina; Ruge, Hannes; Goschke, Thomas; Wolfensteller, Uta

    2018-01-15

    Previous neuroscientific research revealed insights into the brain networks supporting goal-directed and habitual behavior, respectively. However, it remains unclear how these contribute to inter-individual differences in habit strength which is relevant for understanding not only normal behavior but also more severe dysregulations between these types of action control, such as in addiction. In the present fMRI study, we trained subjects on approach and avoidance behavior for an extended period of time before testing the habit strength of the acquired stimulus-response associations. We found that stronger habits were associated with a stronger decrease in inferior parietal lobule activity for approach and avoidance behavior and weaker vmPFC activity at the end of training for avoidance behavior, areas associated with the anticipation of outcome identity and value. VmPFC in particular showed markedly different activity dynamics during the training of approach and avoidance behavior. Furthermore, while ongoing training was accompanied by increasing functional connectivity between posterior putamen and premotor cortex, consistent with previous assumptions about the neural basis of increasing habitualization, this was not predictive of later habit strength. Together, our findings suggest that inter-individual differences in habitual behavior are driven by differences in the persistent involvement of brain areas supporting goal-directed behavior during training. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Unscented Kalman Filter-Trained Neural Networks for Slip Model Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhencai; Wang, Yang; Liu, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to investigate the accurate trajectory tracking control of a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) based on the slip model prediction. Generally, a nonholonomic WMR may increase the slippage risk, when traveling on outdoor unstructured terrain (such as longitudinal and lateral slippage of wheels). In order to control a WMR stably and accurately under the effect of slippage, an unscented Kalman filter and neural networks (NNs) are applied to estimate the slip model in real time. This method exploits the model approximating capabilities of nonlinear state–space NN, and the unscented Kalman filter is used to train NN’s weights online. The slip parameters can be estimated and used to predict the time series of deviation velocity, which can be used to compensate control inputs of a WMR. The results of numerical simulation show that the desired trajectory tracking control can be performed by predicting the nonlinear slip model. PMID:27467703

  11. Image Feature Types and Their Predictions of Aesthetic Preference and Naturalness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc G. Berman

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has investigated ways to quantify visual information of a scene in terms of a visual processing hierarchy, i.e., making sense of visual environment by segmentation and integration of elementary sensory input. Guided by this research, studies have developed categories for low-level visual features (e.g., edges, colors, high-level visual features (scene-level entities that convey semantic information such as objects, and how models of those features predict aesthetic preference and naturalness. For example, in Kardan et al. (2015a, 52 participants provided aesthetic preference and naturalness ratings, which are used in the current study, for 307 images of mixed natural and urban content. Kardan et al. (2015a then developed a model using low-level features to predict aesthetic preference and naturalness and could do so with high accuracy. What has yet to be explored is the ability of higher-level visual features (e.g., horizon line position relative to viewer, geometry of building distribution relative to visual access to predict aesthetic preference and naturalness of scenes, and whether higher-level features mediate some of the association between the low-level features and aesthetic preference or naturalness. In this study we investigated these relationships and found that low- and high- level features explain 68.4% of the variance in aesthetic preference ratings and 88.7% of the variance in naturalness ratings. Additionally, several high-level features mediated the relationship between the low-level visual features and aaesthetic preference. In a multiple mediation analysis, the high-level feature mediators accounted for over 50% of the variance in predicting aesthetic preference. These results show that high-level visual features play a prominent role predicting aesthetic preference, but do not completely eliminate the predictive power of the low-level visual features. These strong predictors provide powerful insights for

  12. Development of 1RM Prediction Equations for Bench Press in Moderately Trained Men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macht, Jordan W; Abel, Mark G; Mullineaux, David R; Yates, James W

    2016-10-01

    Macht, JW, Abel, MG, Mullineaux, DR, and Yates, JW. Development of 1RM prediction equations for bench press in moderately trained men. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2901-2906, 2016-There are a variety of established 1 repetition maximum (1RM) prediction equations, however, very few prediction equations use anthropometric characteristics exclusively or in part, to estimate 1RM strength. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop an original 1RM prediction equation for bench press using anthropometric and performance characteristics in moderately trained male subjects. Sixty male subjects (21.2 ± 2.4 years) completed a 1RM bench press and were randomly assigned a load to complete as many repetitions as possible. In addition, body composition, upper-body anthropometric characteristics, and handgrip strength were assessed. Regression analysis was used to develop a performance-based 1RM prediction equation: 1RM = 1.20 repetition weight + 2.19 repetitions to fatigue - 0.56 biacromial width (cm) + 9.6 (R = 0.99, standard error of estimate [SEE] = 3.5 kg). Regression analysis to develop a nonperformance-based 1RM prediction equation yielded: 1RM (kg) = 0.997 cross-sectional area (CSA) (cm) + 0.401 chest circumference (cm) - 0.385%fat - 0.185 arm length (cm) + 36.7 (R = 0.81, SEE = 13.0 kg). The performance prediction equations developed in this study had high validity coefficients, minimal mean bias, and small limits of agreement. The anthropometric equations had moderately high validity coefficient but larger limits of agreement. The practical applications of this study indicate that the inclusion of anthropometric characteristics and performance variables produce a valid prediction equation for 1RM strength. In addition, the CSA of the arm uses a simple nonperformance method of estimating the lifter's 1RM. This information may be used to predict the starting load for a lifter performing a 1RM prediction protocol or a 1RM testing protocol.

  13. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  14. Lifetime experience with (classic) psychedelics predicts pro-environmental behavior through an increase in nature relatedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forstmann, Matthias; Sagioglou, Christina

    2017-08-01

    In a large-scale ( N = 1487) general population online study, we investigated the relationship between past experience with classic psychedelic substances (e.g. LSD, psilocybin, mescaline), nature relatedness, and ecological behavior (e.g. saving water, recycling). Using structural equation modeling we found that experience with classic psychedelics uniquely predicted self-reported engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, and that this relationship was statistically explained by people's degree of self-identification with nature. Our model controlled for experiences with other classes of psychoactive substances (cannabis, dissociatives, empathogens, popular legal drugs) as well as common personality traits that usually predict drug consumption and/or nature relatedness (openness to experience, conscientiousness, conservatism). Although correlational in nature, results suggest that lifetime experience with psychedelics in particular may indeed contribute to people's pro-environmental behavior by changing their self-construal in terms of an incorporation of the natural world, regardless of core personality traits or general propensity to consume mind-altering substances. Thereby, the present research adds to the contemporary literature on the beneficial effects of psychedelic substance use on mental wellbeing, hinting at a novel area for future research investigating their potentially positive effects on a societal level. Limitations of the present research and future directions are discussed.

  15. Modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallis, I.G.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this working paper is to describe modelling techniques for predicting the long term consequences of radiation on natural aquatic populations. Ideally, it would be possible to use aquatic population models: (1) to predict changes in the health and well-being of all aquatic populations as a result of changing the composition, amount and location of radionuclide discharges; (2) to compare the effects of steady, fluctuating and accidental releases of radionuclides; and (3) to evaluate the combined impact of the discharge of radionuclides and other wastes, and natural environmental stresses on aquatic populations. At the onset it should be stated that there is no existing model which can achieve this ideal performance. However, modelling skills and techniques are available to develop useful aquatic population models. This paper discusses the considerations involved in developing these models and briefly describes the various types of population models which have been developed to date

  16. Impact of sampling interval in training data acquisition on intrafractional predictive accuracy of indirect dynamic tumor-tracking radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukumoto, Nobutaka; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Akimoto, Mami; Miyabe, Yuki; Yokota, Kenji; Matsuo, Yukinori; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2017-08-01

    To explore the effect of sampling interval of training data acquisition on the intrafractional prediction error of surrogate signal-based dynamic tumor-tracking using a gimbal-mounted linac. Twenty pairs of respiratory motions were acquired from 20 patients (ten lung, five liver, and five pancreatic cancer patients) who underwent dynamic tumor-tracking with the Vero4DRT. First, respiratory motions were acquired as training data for an initial construction of the prediction model before the irradiation. Next, additional respiratory motions were acquired for an update of the prediction model due to the change of the respiratory pattern during the irradiation. The time elapsed prior to the second acquisition of the respiratory motion was 12.6 ± 3.1 min. A four-axis moving phantom reproduced patients' three dimensional (3D) target motions and one dimensional surrogate motions. To predict the future internal target motion from the external surrogate motion, prediction models were constructed by minimizing residual prediction errors for training data acquired at 80 and 320 ms sampling intervals for 20 s, and at 500, 1,000, and 2,000 ms sampling intervals for 60 s using orthogonal kV x-ray imaging systems. The accuracies of prediction models trained with various sampling intervals were estimated based on training data with each sampling interval during the training process. The intrafractional prediction errors for various prediction models were then calculated on intrafractional monitoring images taken for 30 s at the constant sampling interval of a 500 ms fairly to evaluate the prediction accuracy for the same motion pattern. In addition, the first respiratory motion was used for the training and the second respiratory motion was used for the evaluation of the intrafractional prediction errors for the changed respiratory motion to evaluate the robustness of the prediction models. The training error of the prediction model was 1.7 ± 0.7 mm in 3D for all sampling

  17. Electrophysiological correlates of predictive coding of auditory location in the perception of natural audiovisual events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stekelenburg, Jeroen J; Vroomen, Jean

    2012-01-01

    In many natural audiovisual events (e.g., a clap of the two hands), the visual signal precedes the sound and thus allows observers to predict when, where, and which sound will occur. Previous studies have reported that there are distinct neural correlates of temporal (when) versus phonetic/semantic (which) content on audiovisual integration. Here we examined the effect of visual prediction of auditory location (where) in audiovisual biological motion stimuli by varying the spatial congruency between the auditory and visual parts. Visual stimuli were presented centrally, whereas auditory stimuli were presented either centrally or at 90° azimuth. Typical sub-additive amplitude reductions (AV - V audiovisual interaction was also found at 40-60 ms (P50) in the spatially congruent condition, while no effect of congruency was found on the suppression of the P2. This indicates that visual prediction of auditory location can be coded very early in auditory processing.

  18. Cleaning up a salt spill : predictive modelling and monitoring natural attenuation to save remedial costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsang, B.; Shaikh, A.A. [EBA Engineering Consultants Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Predictive modelling and monitoring natural attenuation to save remedial costs in cleaning up a salt spill were discussed with reference to a site located in central Alberta, as well as a pipeline break in 2002 from a corroded pipe which resulted in a large spill of produced water and oil. Remedial alternatives and an assessment of the site were presented. This included an electromagnetic survey in 2004, groundwater flow regime, soil and groundwater quality data, vegetation survey, and predictive modelling versus observed water quality. Photos and illustrations of the site from the air were provided. A conceptual salt leaching and transport model was proposed as a solution. Model calculation results were also presented. Last, the presentation discussed some important considerations for predictive modeling and next steps for the site. These included continued monitoring, implementation of a restoration plan and engagement of stakeholders such as Alberta Environment and the site landowner. tabs., figs.

  19. Training algorithms evaluation for artificial neural network to temporal prediction of photovoltaic generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arantes Monteiro, Raul Vitor; Caixeta Guimarães, Geraldo; Rocio Castillo, Madeleine; Matheus Moura, Fabrício Augusto; Tamashiro, Márcio Augusto

    2016-01-01

    Current energy policies are encouraging the connection of power generation based on low-polluting technologies, mainly those using renewable sources, to distribution networks. Hence, it becomes increasingly important to understand technical challenges, facing high penetration of PV systems at the grid, especially considering the effects of intermittence of this source on the power quality, reliability and stability of the electric distribution system. This fact can affect the distribution networks on which they are attached causing overvoltage, undervoltage and frequency oscillations. In order to predict these disturbs, artificial neural networks are used. This article aims to analyze 3 training algorithms used in artificial neural networks for temporal prediction of the generated active power thru photovoltaic panels. As a result it was concluded that the algorithm with the best performance among the 3 analyzed was the Levenberg-Marquadrt.

  20. Prediction of water formation temperature in natural gas dehydrators using radial basis function (RBF neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatar Afshin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Raw natural gases usually contain water. It is very important to remove the water from these gases through dehydration processes due to economic reasons and safety considerations. One of the most important methods for water removal from these gases is using dehydration units which use Triethylene glycol (TEG. The TEG concentration at which all water is removed and dew point characteristics of mixture are two important parameters, which should be taken into account in TEG dehydration system. Hence, developing a reliable and accurate model to predict the performance of such a system seems to be very important in gas engineering operations. This study highlights the use of intelligent modeling techniques such as Multilayer perceptron (MLP and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-ANN to predict the equilibrium water dew point in a stream of natural gas based on the TEG concentration of stream and contractor temperature. Literature data set used in this study covers temperatures from 10 °C to 80 °C and TEG concentrations from 90.000% to 99.999%. Results showed that both models are accurate in prediction of experimental data and the MLP model gives more accurate predictions compared to RBF model.

  1. Natural Analoges as a Check of Predicted Drift Stability at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. Stuckless

    2006-01-01

    Calculations made by the U.S. Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project as part of the licensing of a proposed geologic repository (in southwestern Nevada) for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, predict that emplacement tunnels will remain open with little collapse long after ground support has disintegrated. This conclusion includes the effects of anticipated seismic events. Natural analogues cannot provide a quantitative test of this conclusion, but they can provide a reasonableness test by examining the natural and anthropogenic examples of stability of subterranean openings. Available data from a variety of sources, combined with limited observations by the author, show that natural underground openings tend to resist collapse for millions of years and that anthropogenic subterranean openings have remained open from before recorded history through today. This stability is true even in seismically active areas. In fact, the archaeological record is heavily skewed toward preservation of underground structures relative to those found at the surface

  2. Data and prediction of water content of high pressure nitrogen, methane and natural gas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folas, Georgios; Froyna, E.W.; Lovland, J.

    2007-01-01

    New data for the equilibrium water content of nitrogen, methane and one natural gas mixture are presented. The new binary data and existing binary sets were compared to calculated values of dew point temperature using both the CPA (Cubic-Plus-Association) EoS and the GERG-water EoS. CPA is purely...... predictive (i.e. all binary interaction parameters are set equal to 0), while GERG-water uses a temperature dependent interaction parameter fitted to published data. The GERG-water model is proposed as an ISO standard for determining the water content of natural gas. The data sets for nitrogen cover...... conclusion is that GERG-water must be used with caution outside its specified working range. For some selected natural gas mixtures the two models also perform very much alike. The water content of the mixtures decreases with increasing amount of heavier components, and it seems that both models slightly...

  3. Natural Analoges as a Check of Predicted Drift Stability at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Stuckless

    2006-03-10

    Calculations made by the U.S. Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project as part of the licensing of a proposed geologic repository (in southwestern Nevada) for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, predict that emplacement tunnels will remain open with little collapse long after ground support has disintegrated. This conclusion includes the effects of anticipated seismic events. Natural analogues cannot provide a quantitative test of this conclusion, but they can provide a reasonableness test by examining the natural and anthropogenic examples of stability of subterranean openings. Available data from a variety of sources, combined with limited observations by the author, show that natural underground openings tend to resist collapse for millions of years and that anthropogenic subterranean openings have remained open from before recorded history through today. This stability is true even in seismically active areas. In fact, the archaeological record is heavily skewed toward preservation of underground structures relative to those found at the surface.

  4. Back to the Roots: Prediction of Biologically Active Natural Products from Ayurveda Traditional Medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Polur, Honey; Joshi, Tejal; Workman, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Ayurveda, the traditional Indian medicine is one of the most ancient, yet living medicinal traditions. In the present work, we developed an in silico library of natural products from Ayurveda medicine, coupled with structural information, plant origin and traditional therapeutic use. Following this....... We hereby present a number of examples where the traditional medicinal use of the plant matches with the medicinal use of the drug that is structurally similar to a plant component. With this approach, we have brought to light a number of obscure compounds of natural origin (e.g. kanugin......, we compared their structures with those of drugs from DrugBank and we constructed a structural similarity network. Information on the traditional therapeutic use of the plants was integrated in the network in order to provide further evidence for the predicted biologically active natural compounds...

  5. A predictive model of natural gas mixture combustion in internal combustion engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Espinoza

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available This study shows the development of a predictive natural gas mixture combustion model for conventional com-bustion (ignition engines. The model was based on resolving two areas; one having unburned combustion mixture and another having combustion products. Energy and matter conservation equations were solved for each crankshaft turn angle for each area. Nonlinear differential equations for each phase’s energy (considering compression, combustion and expansion were solved by applying the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The model also enabled studying different natural gas components’ composition and evaluating combustion in the presence of dry and humid air. Validation results are shown with experimental data, demonstrating the software’s precision and accuracy in the results so produced. The results showed cylinder pressure, unburned and burned mixture temperature, burned mass fraction and combustion reaction heat for the engine being modelled using a natural gas mixture.

  6. Workplace-based assessments of junior doctors: do scores predict training difficulties?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Colin; Bhat, Sarita; Herbert, Anne; Baker, Paul

    2011-12-01

    Workplace-based assessment (WPBA) is an increasingly important part of postgraduate medical training and its results may be used as evidence of professional competence. This study evaluates the ability of WPBA to distinguish UK Foundation Programme (FP) doctors with training difficulties and its effectiveness as a surrogate marker for deficiencies in professional competence. We conducted a retrospective observational study using anonymised records for 1646 trainees in a single UK postgraduate deanery. Data for WPBAs conducted from August 2005 to April 2009 were extracted from the e-portfolio database. These data included all scores submitted by trainees in FP years 1 and 2 on mini-clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX), case-based discussion (CbD), direct observation of procedural skills (DOPS) and mini-peer assessment tool (mini-PAT) assessments. Records of trainees in difficulty, as identified by their educational supervisors, were tagged as index cases. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (ORs) for associations between mean WPBA scores and training difficulties. Further analyses by the reported aetiology of the training difficulty (health-, conduct- or performance-related) were performed. Of the 1646 trainees, 92 had been identified as being in difficulty. Mean CbD and mini-CEX scores were lower for trainees in difficulty and an association was found between identified training difficulties and average scores on the mini-CEX (OR = 0.54; p = 0.034) and CbD (OR = 0.39; p = 0.002). A receiver operator characteristic curve analysis of mean WPBA scores for diagnosing 'in difficulty' status yielded an area under the curve of 0.64, indicating weak predictive value. There was no statistical evidence that mean scores on DOPS and mini-PAT assessments differed between the two groups. Analysis of a large dataset of WPBA scores revealed significant associations between training difficulties and lower mean scores on both the mini-CEX and CbD. Models show that using WPBA

  7. Cognitive training with and without additional physical activity in healthy older adults: cognitive effects, neurobiological mechanisms, and prediction of training success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia eRahe

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Data is inconsistent concerning the question whether cognitive-physical training (CPT yields stronger cognitive gains than cognitive training (CT. Effects of additional counseling, neurobiological mechanisms, and predictors have scarcely been studied. Healthy older adults were trained with CT (n=20, CPT (n=25, or CPT with counseling (CPT+C; n=23. Cognition, physical fitness, BDNF, IGF-1, and VEGF were assessed at pre- and posttest. No interaction effects were found except for one effect showing that CPT+C led to stronger gains in verbal fluency than CPT (p = .03. However, this superiority could not be assigned to additional physical training gains. Low baseline cognitive performance and BDNF, not carrying apoE4, gains in physical fitness and the moderation of gains in physical fitness x gains in BDNF predicted training success. Although all types of interventions seem successful to enhance cognition, our data do not support the hypotheses that CPT shows superior cognitive training gains compared to CT or that CPT+C adds merit to CPT. However, as CPT leads to additional gains in physical fitness which in turn is known to have positive impact on cognition in the long-term, CPT seems more beneficial. Training success can partly be predicted by neuropsychological, neurobiological, and genetic parameters.http://www.who.int/ictrp; ID: DRKS00005194

  8. Data Normalization to Accelerate Training for Linear Neural Net to Predict Tropical Cyclone Tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Jin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available When pure linear neural network (PLNN is used to predict tropical cyclone tracks (TCTs in South China Sea, whether the data is normalized or not greatly affects the training process. In this paper, min.-max. method and normal distribution method, instead of standard normal distribution, are applied to TCT data before modeling. We propose the experimental schemes in which, with min.-max. method, the min.-max. value pair of each variable is mapped to (−1, 1 and (0, 1; with normal distribution method, each variable’s mean and standard deviation pair is set to (0, 1 and (100, 1. We present the following results: (1 data scaled to the similar intervals have similar effects, no matter the use of min.-max. or normal distribution method; (2 mapping data to around 0 gains much faster training speed than mapping them to the intervals far away from 0 or using unnormalized raw data, although all of them can approach the same lower level after certain steps from their training error curves. This could be useful to decide data normalization method when PLNN is used individually.

  9. Analytical Model of Underground Train Induced Vibrations on Nearby Building Structures in Cameroon: Assessment and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lezin Seba MINSILI

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research paper was to assess and predict the effect of vibrations induced by an underground railway on nearby-existing buildings prior to the construction of projected new railway lines of the National Railway Master Plan of Cameroon and after upgrading of the railway conceded to CAMRAIL linking the two most densely populated cities of Cameroon: Douala and Yaoundé. With the source-transmitter-receiver mathematical model as the train-soil-structure interaction model, taking into account sub-model parameters such as type of the train-railway system, typical geotechnical conditions of the ground and the sensitivity of the nearby buildings, the analysis is carried out over the entire system using the dynamic finite element method in the time domain. This subdivision of the model is a powerful tool that allows to consider different alternatives of sub-models with different characteristics, and thus to determine any critical excessive vibration impact. Based on semi-empirical analytical results obtained from presented models, the present work assesses and predicts characteristics of traffic-induced vibrations as a function of time duration, intensity and vehicle speed, as well as their influence on buildings at different levels.

  10. Can we predict final outcome of internal medicine residents with in-training evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chierakul, Nitipatana; Pongprasobchai, Supot; Boonyapisit, Kanokwan; Chinthammitr, Yingyong; Pithukpakorn, Manop; Maneesai, Adisak; Srivijitkamol, Apiradee; Koomanachai, Pornpan; Koolvisoot, Ajchara; Tanwandee, Tawesak; Shayakul, Chairat; Kachintorn, Udom

    2011-02-01

    To assess the predictive value of in-training evaluation for determining future success in the internal medicine board certifying examination. Ninety-seven internal medicine residents from Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital who undertake the Thai Board examination during the academic year 2006-2008 were enrolled. Correlation between the scores during internal medicine rotation and final scores in board examination were then examined. Significant positive linear correlation was found between scores from both written and clinical parts of board certifying examination and scores from the first-year summative written and clinical examinations and also the second-year formative written examination (r = 0.43-0.68, p evaluation by attending staffs was less well correlated (r = 0.29-0.36) and the evaluation by nurses or medical students demonstrated inverse relationship (r = -0.2, p = 0.27 and r = -0.13, p = 0.48). Some methods of in-training evaluation can predict successful outcome of board certifying examination. Multisource assessments cannot well extrapolate some aspects of professional competences and qualities.

  11. The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Lievens, Filip; Kerrin, Máire; Munro, Neil; Irish, Bill

    2013-11-01

    The selection methodology for UK general practice is designed to accommodate several thousand applicants per year and targets six core attributes identified in a multi-method job-analysis study To evaluate the predictive validity of selection methods for entry into postgraduate training, comprising a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. A three-part longitudinal predictive validity study of selection into training for UK general practice. In sample 1, participants were junior doctors applying for training in general practice (n = 6824). In sample 2, participants were GP registrars 1 year into training (n = 196). In sample 3, participants were GP registrars sitting the licensing examination after 3 years, at the end of training (n = 2292). The outcome measures include: assessor ratings of performance in a selection centre comprising job simulation exercises (sample 1); supervisor ratings of trainee job performance 1 year into training (sample 2); and licensing examination results, including an applied knowledge examination and a 12-station clinical skills objective structured clinical examination (OSCE; sample 3). Performance ratings at selection predicted subsequent supervisor ratings of job performance 1 year later. Selection results also significantly predicted performance on both the clinical skills OSCE and applied knowledge examination for licensing at the end of training. In combination, these longitudinal findings provide good evidence of the predictive validity of the selection methods, and are the first reported for entry into postgraduate training. Results show that the best predictor of work performance and training outcomes is a combination of a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Implications for selection methods for all postgraduate specialties are considered.

  12. The in-training examination: an analysis of its predictive value on performance on the general pediatrics certification examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althouse, Linda A; McGuinness, Gail A

    2008-09-01

    This study investigates the predictive validity of the In-Training Examination (ITE). Although studies have confirmed the predictive validity of ITEs in other medical specialties, no study has been done for general pediatrics. Each year, residents in accredited pediatric training programs take the ITE as a self-assessment instrument. The ITE is similar to the American Board of Pediatrics General Pediatrics Certifying Examination. First-time takers of the certifying examination over a 5-year period who took at least 1 ITE examination were included in the sample. Regression models analyzed the predictive value of the ITE. The predictive power of the ITE in the first training year is minimal. However, the predictive power of the ITE increases each year, providing the greatest power in the third year of training. Even though ITE scores provide information regarding the likelihood of passing the certification examination, the data should be used with caution, particularly in the first training year. Other factors also must be considered when predicting performance on the certification examination. This study continues to support the ITE as an assessment tool for program directors, as well as a means of providing residents with feedback regarding their acquisition of pediatric knowledge.

  13. Prediction of Corrosion Resistance of Concrete Containing Natural Pozzolan from Compressive Strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    al-Swaidani, A. M.; Ismat, R.; Diyab, M. E.; Aliyan, S. D.

    2015-11-01

    A lot of Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures in Syria have suffered from reinforcement corrosion which shortened significantly their service lives. Probably, one of the most effective approaches to make concrete structures more durable and concrete industry on the whole - more sustainable is to substitute pozzolan for a portion of Portland cement (PC). Syria is relatively rich in natural pozzolan. In the study, in order to predict the corrosion resistance from compressive strength, concrete specimens were produced with seven cement types: one plain Portland cement (control) and six natural pozzolan-based cements with replacement levels ranging from 10 to 35%. The development of the compressive strengths of concrete cube specimens with curing time has been investigated. Chloride penetrability has also been evaluated for all concrete mixes after three curing times of 7, 28 and 90 days. The effect on resistance of concrete against damage caused by corrosion of the embedded reinforcing steel has been investigated using an accelerated corrosion test by impressing a constant anodic potential for 7, 28 and 90 days curing. Test results have been statistically analysed and correlation equations relating compressive strength and corrosion performance have been developed. Significant correlations have been noted between the compressive strength and both rapid chloride penetrability and corrosion initiation times. So, this prediction could be reliable in concrete mix design when using natural pozzolan as cement replacement.

  14. GPA/GPSA/OSU-Okmulgee natural gas compression technician training program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doede, S.

    1999-07-01

    Approximately one year ago, OSU-Okmulgee and the Gas Processors Association began discussions about the possibility of developing a natural Gas Technician Training Program for GPA members. Following a presentation to the Membership and Services Committee, Chairman John Ehlers solicited and obtained the approval of the GPA Executive Committee to sponsor the program. Participation in the program was also made available to GPSA members. The purpose of the program is to upgrade the technical competency and professional level of incoming natural gas compression technicians. It educates students to analytically diagnose, service and maintain gas compression equipment and systems using industry recommended procedures, special tools and service information. It also provides course content, which will enable successful graduates to advance in position after additional experience, and to understand new systems, technologies and components as they are introduced. The two-year Associate-In-Applied Science Degree program includes six successive college semesters. Nearly one-half of the time is designated for technical/academic education at Oklahoma State University-Okmulgee with the balance of time allocated for on-the-job internship experiences at sponsoring GPA/GPSA members. Each block of technical education and general education course work is followed by an immediate work experience time period designated to reinforce the technical and general education. These time periods are approximately seven and one-half weeks in length each. It is essential for the success of the students and the program that the students' education at OSU-Okmulgee and work experiences at GPA/GPSA member facilities be closely aligned for maximum student learning and retention. In addition to technical classes on gas compression equipment and components, the courses offered in math, speech, technical writing, psychology and ethics for example, prepare students to be able to communicate well, get

  15. Analysis of a Moodle-Based Training Program about the Pedagogical Content Knowledge of Evolution Theory and Natural Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasinakis, Panagiotis K.; Kalogiannnakis, Michail

    2017-01-01

    In this study we aim to find out whether a training program for secondary school science teachers which was organized based on the model of Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK), could improve their individual PCK for a specific scientific issue. The Evolution Theory (ET) and the Natural Selection (NS) were chosen as the scientific issues of…

  16. Predictive value of the korean academy of family medicine in-training examination for certifying examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Jung-Jin; Kim, Ji-Yong

    2011-09-01

    In-training examination (ITE) is a cognitive examination similar to the written test, but it is different from the Clinical Practice Examination of the Korean Academy of Family Medicine (KAFM) Certification Examination (CE). The objective of this is to estimate the positive predictive value of the KAFM-ITE for identifying residents at risk for poor performance on the three types of KAFM-CE. 372 residents who completed the KAFM-CE in 2011 were included. We compared the mean KAFM-CE scores with ITE experience. We evaluated the correlation and the positive predictive value (PPV) of ITE for the multiple choice question (MCQ) scores of 1st written test & 2nd slide examination, the total clinical practice examination scores, and the total sum of 2nd test. 275 out of 372 residents completed ITE. Those who completed ITE had significantly higher MCQ scores of 1st written test than those who did not. The correlation of ITE scores with 1st written MCQ (0.627) was found to be the highest among the other kinds of CE. The PPV of the ITE score for 1st written MCQ scores was 0.672. The PPV of the ITE score ranged from 0.376 to 0.502. The score of the KAFM ITE has acceptable positive predictive value that could be used as a part of comprehensive evaluation system for residents in cognitive field.

  17. Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kendall, G.M. [University of Oxford, Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Oxford (United Kingdom); Wakeford, R. [University of Manchester, Centre for Occupational and Environmental Health, Institute of Population Health, Manchester (United Kingdom); Athanson, M. [University of Oxford, Bodleian Library, Oxford (United Kingdom); Vincent, T.J. [University of Oxford, Childhood Cancer Research Group, Oxford (United Kingdom); Carter, E.J. [University of Worcester, Earth Heritage Trust, Geological Records Centre, Henwick Grove, Worcester (United Kingdom); McColl, N.P. [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon (United Kingdom); Little, M.P. [National Cancer Institute, DHHS, NIH, Radiation Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, Bethesda, MD (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matern correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matern model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matern model. (orig.)

  18. Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kendall, G.M.; Wakeford, R.; Athanson, M.; Vincent, T.J.; Carter, E.J.; McColl, N.P.; Little, M.P.

    2016-01-01

    Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matern correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matern model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matern model. (orig.)

  19. Prediction of knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soylu, Seref

    2005-01-01

    Computer models of engine processes are valuable tools for predicting and analyzing engine performance and allow exploration of many engine design alternatives in an inexpensive fashion. In the present work, a zero-dimensional, two zone thermodynamic model was used to determine the knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine. Experimentally based burning rate models were used for flame initiation and propagation calculations. A knock model was incorporated with the zero-dimensional model. Comparison of the measured and calculated cylinder pressure data indicated that the model is able to match the measured cylinder pressure data with less than 8% error in magnitudes if the computations are started at the experimental spark timing. The knock predictions agreed with the measurements also. With the established knock model, it is possible not only to investigate whether knock is observed with changing operating and design parameters, but also to evaluate their effects on the maximum possible knock intensity

  20. From Imitation to Prediction, Data Compression vs Recurrent Neural Networks for Natural Language Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Andres Laura

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent studies Recurrent Neural Networks were used for generative processes and their surprising performance can be explained by their ability to create good predictions. In addition, Data Compression is also based on prediction. What the problem comes down to is whether a data compressor could be used to perform as well as recurrent neural networks in the natural language processing tasks of sentiment analysis and automatic text generation. If this is possible, then the problem comes down to determining if a compression algorithm is even more intelligent than a neural network in such tasks. In our journey, a fundamental difference between a Data Compression Algorithm and Recurrent Neural Networks has been discovered.

  1. Ethical dilemmas related to predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phua, Kai-Lit; Hue, J W

    2013-01-01

    Scientists and policy makers issuing predictions and warnings of impending natural disaster are faced with two major challenges, that is, failure to warn and issuing a false alarm. The consequences of failure to warn can be serious for society overall, for example, significant economic losses, heavy infrastructure and environmental damage, large number of human casualties, and social disruption. Failure to warn can also have serious for specific individuals, for example, legal proceedings against disaster research scientists, as in the L'Aquila earthquake affair. The consequences of false alarms may be less serious. Nevertheless, false alarms may violate the principle of nonmaleficence (do no harm), affect individual autonomy (eg, mandatory evacuations), and may result in the "cry wolf" effect. Other ethical issues associated with natural disasters include the promotion of global justice through international predisaster technical assistance and postdisaster aid. Social justice within a particular country is promoted through greater postdisaster aid allocation to the less privileged.

  2. Prediction of the diffuse-field transmission loss of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bibby, Chris; Hodgson, Murray

    2017-01-01

    The work reported here, part of a study on the performance and optimal design of interior natural-ventilation openings and silencers ("ventilators"), discusses the prediction of the acoustical performance of such ventilators, and the factors that affect it. A wave-based numerical approach-the finite-element method (FEM)-is applied. The development of a FEM technique for the prediction of ventilator diffuse-field transmission loss is presented. Model convergence is studied with respect to mesh, frequency-sampling and diffuse-field convergence. The modeling technique is validated by way of predictions and the comparison of them to analytical and experimental results. The transmission-loss performance of crosstalk silencers of four shapes, and the factors that affect it, are predicted and discussed. Performance increases with flow-path length for all silencer types. Adding elbows significantly increases high-frequency transmission loss, but does not increase overall silencer performance which is controlled by low-to-mid-frequency transmission loss.

  3. Predicting judicial decisions of the European Court of Human Rights: a Natural Language Processing perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaos Aletras

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning provide us with the tools to build predictive models that can be used to unveil patterns driving judicial decisions. This can be useful, for both lawyers and judges, as an assisting tool to rapidly identify cases and extract patterns which lead to certain decisions. This paper presents the first systematic study on predicting the outcome of cases tried by the European Court of Human Rights based solely on textual content. We formulate a binary classification task where the input of our classifiers is the textual content extracted from a case and the target output is the actual judgment as to whether there has been a violation of an article of the convention of human rights. Textual information is represented using contiguous word sequences, i.e., N-grams, and topics. Our models can predict the court’s decisions with a strong accuracy (79% on average. Our empirical analysis indicates that the formal facts of a case are the most important predictive factor. This is consistent with the theory of legal realism suggesting that judicial decision-making is significantly affected by the stimulus of the facts. We also observe that the topical content of a case is another important feature in this classification task and explore this relationship further by conducting a qualitative analysis.

  4. Prediction of natural disasters basing of chrono-and-information field characters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapunov, Valentin

    2013-04-01

    Living organisms are able to predict some future events particular catastrophic incidents. This is adaptive characters producing by evolution. The more energy produces incident the more possibility to predict one. Wild animals escaped natural hazards including tsunami (e.g. extremal tsunami in Asia December 2004). Living animals are able to predict strong phenomena of obscure nature. For example majority of animals escaped Tungus catastrophe taking place in Siberia at 1908. Wild animals are able to predict nuclear weapon experiences. The obscure characters are not typical for human, but they are fixed under probability 15%. Such were summarized by L.Vasiliev (1961). Effective theory describing such a characters is absent till now. N.Kozyrev (1991) suggested existence of unknown physical field (but gravitation and electro magnetic). The field was named "time" or "chrono". Some characters of the field appeared to be object of physical experiment. Kozyrev suggested specific role of the field for function of living organisms. Transition of biological information throw space (telepathy) and time (proscopy) may be based on characters of such a field. Hence physical chrono-and-information field is under consideration. Animals are more familiar with such a field than human. Evolutionary process experienced with possibility of extremal development of contact with such a field using highest primates. This mode of evolution appeared to stay obscure producing probable species "Wildman" (Bigfoot). Specific adaptive fitches suggest impossibility to study of such a species by usual ecological approaches. The perspective way for study of mysterious phenomena of physic is researches of this field characters.

  5. Operational and contractual impacts in E and P offshore during predicted natural hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benevides, Paulo Roberto Correa de Sa e [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Generally, when E and P operators using DP (Dynamic Positioning) are advised previously of a possible natural hazard occurrence, usually they consider it like an emergency situation and their main action is oriented only to prepare the first response and use the 'force majeure' argumentation to protect itself from any additional responsibility. When the natural phenomenon actually happens, the expenses due to the losses will be accepted because it was already considered in its budget as 'Losses due to accident' and it will be shared by the partners of the project according to the correspondent contractual terms. This paper describes real cases of the evolution of predictions for natural hazards in offshore basins in Brazil, Western Africa and Gulf of Mexico where PETROBRAS and many other oil companies have used DP operations. It proposes some alternative procedures through the BCM (Business Continuity Management) to manage natural crisis instead of the common use of the traditional 'force majeure' argumentation. (author)

  6. Prediction of Emergency Department Hospital Admission Based on Natural Language Processing and Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Kim, Joyce; Patzer, Rachel E; Pitts, Stephen R; Patzer, Aaron; Schrager, Justin D

    2017-10-26

    To describe and compare logistic regression and neural network modeling strategies to predict hospital admission or transfer following initial presentation to Emergency Department (ED) triage with and without the addition of natural language processing elements. Using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), a cross-sectional probability sample of United States EDs from 2012 and 2013 survey years, we developed several predictive models with the outcome being admission to the hospital or transfer vs. discharge home. We included patient characteristics immediately available after the patient has presented to the ED and undergone a triage process. We used this information to construct logistic regression (LR) and multilayer neural network models (MLNN) which included natural language processing (NLP) and principal component analysis from the patient's reason for visit. Ten-fold cross validation was used to test the predictive capacity of each model and receiver operating curves (AUC) were then calculated for each model. Of the 47,200 ED visits from 642 hospitals, 6,335 (13.42%) resulted in hospital admission (or transfer). A total of 48 principal components were extracted by NLP from the reason for visit fields, which explained 75% of the overall variance for hospitalization. In the model including only structured variables, the AUC was 0.824 (95% CI 0.818-0.830) for logistic regression and 0.823 (95% CI 0.817-0.829) for MLNN. Models including only free-text information generated AUC of 0.742 (95% CI 0.731- 0.753) for logistic regression and 0.753 (95% CI 0.742-0.764) for MLNN. When both structured variables and free text variables were included, the AUC reached 0.846 (95% CI 0.839-0.853) for logistic regression and 0.844 (95% CI 0.836-0.852) for MLNN. The predictive accuracy of hospital admission or transfer for patients who presented to ED triage overall was good, and was improved with the inclusion of free text data from a patient

  7. The Fatigue Life Prediction of Train Wheel Rims Containing Spherical Inclusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yajie; Chen, Huanguo; Cai, Li; Chen, Pei; Qian, Jiacheng; Wu, Jianwei

    2018-03-01

    It is a common phenomenon that fatigue crack initiation occurs frequently in the inclusions of wheel rims. Research on the fatigue life of wheel rims with spherical inclusions is of great significance on the reliability of wheels. To find the danger point and working condition of a wheel, the stress state of the wheel rim with spherical inclusions was analyzed using the finite element method. Results revealed that curve conditions are dangerous. The critical plane method, based on the cumulative fatigue damage theory, was used to predict the fatigue life of the wheel rim and whether it contained spherical inclusions or not under curve conditions. It was found that the fatigue life of the wheel rim is significantly shorter when the wheel rim contains spherical inclusions. Analysis of the results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for train operations and maintenance.

  8. Mechanisms of children's exposure to nature: Predicting adulthood environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley T. Asah; David N. Bengston; Lynne M. Westphal; Catherine H. Gowan

    2017-01-01

    Childhood-nature experiences have lifelong effects on environmental citizenship and commitment to nature-based activities. But, it is unclear whether, and to what extent, the different mechanisms through which children and youth experience nature are associated with these outcomes. To test these associations, an online questionnaire assessing mechanisms of childhood...

  9. Prediction of composite fatigue life under variable amplitude loading using artificial neural network trained by genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohman, Muhamad Nur; Hidayat, Mas Irfan P.; Purniawan, Agung

    2018-04-01

    Neural networks (NN) have been widely used in application of fatigue life prediction. In the use of fatigue life prediction for polymeric-base composite, development of NN model is necessary with respect to the limited fatigue data and applicable to be used to predict the fatigue life under varying stress amplitudes in the different stress ratios. In the present paper, Multilayer-Perceptrons (MLP) model of neural network is developed, and Genetic Algorithm was employed to optimize the respective weights of NN for prediction of polymeric-base composite materials under variable amplitude loading. From the simulation result obtained with two different composite systems, named E-glass fabrics/epoxy (layups [(±45)/(0)2]S), and E-glass/polyester (layups [90/0/±45/0]S), NN model were trained with fatigue data from two different stress ratios, which represent limited fatigue data, can be used to predict another four and seven stress ratios respectively, with high accuracy of fatigue life prediction. The accuracy of NN prediction were quantified with the small value of mean square error (MSE). When using 33% from the total fatigue data for training, the NN model able to produce high accuracy for all stress ratios. When using less fatigue data during training (22% from the total fatigue data), the NN model still able to produce high coefficient of determination between the prediction result compared with obtained by experiment.

  10. Simulation-Based Laparoscopic Surgery Crisis Resource Management Training-Predicting Technical and Nontechnical Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldenberg, Mitchell G; Fok, Kai H; Ordon, Michael; Pace, Kenneth T; Lee, Jason Y

    2017-12-19

    To develop a unique simulation-based assessment using a laparoscopic inferior vena cava (IVC) injury scenario that allows for the safe assessment of urology resident's technical and nontechnical skills, and investigate the effect of personality traits performance in a surgical crisis. Urology residents from our institution were recruited to participate in a simulation-based training laparoscopic nephrectomy exercise. Residents completed demographic and multidimensional personality questionnaires and were instructed to play the role of staff urologist. A vasovagal response to pneumoperitoneum and an IVC injury event were scripted into the scenario. Technical and nontechnical skills were assessed by expert laparoscopic surgeons using validated tools (task checklist, GOALS, and NOTSS). Ten junior and five senior urology residents participated. Five residents were unable to complete the exercise safely. Senior residents outperformed juniors on technical (checklist score 15.1 vs 9.9, p Technical performance scores correlated with NOTSS scores (p technical performance (p technical score (p = 0.03) and pass/fail rating (p = 0.04). Resident level of training and laparoscopic experience correlated with technical performance during a simulation-based laparoscopic IVC injury crisis management scenario, as well as multiple domains of nontechnical performance. Personality traits of our surgical residents are similar and did not predict technical skill. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Predicting Resident Performance from Preresidency Factors: A Systematic Review and Applicability to Neurosurgical Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuckerman, Scott L; Kelly, Patrick D; Dewan, Michael C; Morone, Peter J; Yengo-Kahn, Aaron M; Magarik, Jordan A; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Zusman, Edie E; Solomon, Gary S; Wellons, John C

    2018-02-01

    Neurosurgical educators strive to identify the best applicants, yet formal study of resident selection has proved difficult. We conducted a systematic review to answer the following question: What objective and subjective preresidency factors predict resident success? PubMed, ProQuest, Embase, and the CINAHL databases were queried from 1952 to 2015 for literature reporting the impact of preresidency factors (PRFs) on outcomes of residency success (RS), among neurosurgery and all surgical subspecialties. Due to heterogeneity of specialties and outcomes, a qualitative summary and heat map of significant findings were constructed. From 1489 studies, 21 articles met inclusion criteria, which evaluated 1276 resident applicants across five surgical subspecialties. No neurosurgical studies met the inclusion criteria. Common objective PRFs included standardized testing (76%), medical school performance (48%), and Alpha Omega Alpha (43%). Common subjective PRFs included aggregate rank scores (57%), letters of recommendation (38%), research (33%), interviews (19%), and athletic or musical talent (19%). Outcomes of RS included faculty evaluations, in-training/board exams, chief resident status, and research productivity. Among objective factors, standardized test scores correlated well with in-training/board examinations but poorly correlated with faculty evaluations. Among subjective factors, aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent demonstrated moderate correlation with faculty evaluations. Standardized testing most strongly correlated with future examination performance but correlated poorly with faculty evaluations. Moderate predictors of faculty evaluations were aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent. The ability to predict success of neurosurgical residents using an evidence-based approach is limited, and few factors have correlated with future resident performance. Given the importance of

  12. Neuro-Fuzzy Prediction of Cooperation Interaction Profile of Flexible Road Train Based on Hybrid Automaton Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banjanovic-Mehmedovic Lejla

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of traffic information is important in many applications in relation to Intelligent Transport systems (ITS, since it reduces the uncertainty of future traffic states and improves traffic mobility. There is a lot of research done in the field of traffic information predictions such as speed, flow and travel time. The most important research was done in the domain of cooperative intelligent transport system (C-ITS. The goal of this paper is to introduce the novel cooperation behaviour profile prediction through the example of flexible Road Trains useful road cooperation parameter, which contributes to the improvement of traffic mobility in Intelligent Transportation Systems. This paper presents an approach towards the control and cooperation behaviour modelling of vehicles in the flexible Road Train based on hybrid automaton and neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS prediction of cooperation profile of the flexible Road Train. Hybrid automaton takes into account complex dynamics of each vehicle as well as discrete cooperation approach. The ANFIS is a particular class of the ANN family with attractive estimation and learning potentials. In order to provide statistical analysis, RMSE (root mean square error, coefficient of determination (R2 and Pearson coefficient (r, were utilized. The study results suggest that ANFIS would be an efficient soft computing methodology, which could offer precise predictions of cooperative interactions between vehicles in Road Train, which is useful for prediction mobility in Intelligent Transport systems.

  13. Predictive Modelling of Concentration of Dispersed Natural Gas in a Single Room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulfatai JIMOH

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed at developing a mathematical model equation to predict the concentration of natural gas in a single room. The model equation was developed by using theoretical method of predictive modelling. The model equation developed is as given in equation 28. The validity of the developed expression was tested through the simulation of experimental results using computer software called MathCAD Professional. Both experimental and simulated results were found to be in close agreement. The statistical analysis carried out through the correlation coefficients for the results of experiment 1, 2, 3 and 4 were found to be 0.9986, 1.0000, 0.9981 and 0.9999 respectively, which imply reasonable close fittings between the experimental and simulated concentrations of dispersed natural gas within the room. Thus, the model equation developed can be considered a good representation of the phenomena that occurred when there is a leakage or accidental release of such gas within the room.

  14.  Running speed during training and percent body fat predict race time in recreational male marathoners

    OpenAIRE

    Barandun U; Knechtle B; Knechtle P; Klipstein A; Rust CA; Rosemann T; Lepers R

    2012-01-01

     Background: Recent studies have shown that personal best marathon time is a strong predictor of race time in male ultramarathoners. We aimed to determine variables predictive of marathon race time in recreational male marathoners by using the same characteristics of anthropometry and training as used for ultramarathoners.Methods: Anthropometric and training characteristics of 126 recreational male marathoners were bivariately and multivariately related to marathon race times.Results...

  15. Stimulating Interest in Natural Sciences and Training Observation Skills: The UAP Observations Reporting Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ailleris, P.

    2012-04-01

    how to record as accurately as possible a UAP event, in order to facilitate future identification and study. Lastly, one of the project's objectives is also to collect reports of trained observers (astronomers) of apparently inexplicable events for further analysis. Certainly, whenever there are unexplained observations there is the possibility that scientists could learn something new by studying these events. During this presentation, we will provide an overview of the project, present the website's extensive and well illustrated list of misidentifications, describe how people can further check details, develop their knowledge (e.g. satellite paths, stars/planets charts, characteristics of meteors, pictures of sprites, clouds classification) and enhance their observation skills. In order to show the relevance of the project, a short illustrated list of UAP cases received by the project will be featured, both explained and inexplicable. Finally, we will explore potential plans for strengthening the visibility and usefulness of the project, while requesting feedback from the community of atmospheric and natural sciences' researchers. (1) www.uapreporting.org (*): Disclaimer: Work undertaken as personal work; not endorsed as research activity by ESA.

  16. Traditional and non-traditional approaches to the prediction of natural disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapunov, Valentin; Glazyrina, Tatiana

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of the 21st century the number of disasters in the world increased approximately two times. Damage from disasters cost an average of 230 billion dollars per year. Recently, the death toll in the disaster has reached 230,000 - 1 000,000 per year. Along with earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, increased the number of forest and steppe fires. These processes are not fully known global, geophysical and space reasons. Of great importance are perennial not until the end of the study of natural cycles. There is evidence that the state of the planet's surface affect processes in the Earth's core. Understanding the causes and prediction of the tragic events require an integrated effort based on the synthesis of various sciences as well as history which has knowledge about the disasters of the past. Factor that reduces the risk is constant monitoring, including both distant and contact methods. However, its possibility is limited. Firstly, due to the high cost of global, especially space monitoring. Secondly, due to the unpredictability of some processes. In December 2004, the countries of Southeast Asia hit by the tsunami. The death gotten 250 000 people. Animals in this cataclysm appeared to stay safety and advance left the danger zone. Animals are able to predict hazards having no materials predecessors. Participants nuclear tests show - a day before the explosion of the animals escape dangerous zone. This means that animals have the ability to predict the catastrophic events. The most important abiotic factor, the physical nature of which is still not clear is time. One of the scientists, who achieved some success in the study of time, was N.Kozyrev (1908-1983). He devoted his life to the study of the phenomenon of time and attempt to systematize the knowledge of him as a physical substance. Kozyrev in his theoretical calculations and experiments found the new field - the field of time (chrono-information). Through it can instantly and accurately transmit

  17. Electrophysiological correlates of predictive coding of auditory location in the perception of natural audiovisual events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen eStekelenburg

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available In many natural audiovisual events (e.g., a clap of the two hands, the visual signal precedes the sound and thus allows observers to predict when, where, and which sound will occur. Previous studies have already reported that there are distinct neural correlates of temporal (when versus phonetic/semantic (which content on audiovisual integration. Here we examined the effect of visual prediction of auditory location (where in audiovisual biological motion stimuli by varying the spatial congruency between the auditory and visual part of the audiovisual stimulus. Visual stimuli were presented centrally, whereas auditory stimuli were presented either centrally or at 90° azimuth. Typical subadditive amplitude reductions (AV – V < A were found for the auditory N1 and P2 for spatially congruent and incongruent conditions. The new finding is that the N1 suppression was larger for spatially congruent stimuli. A very early audiovisual interaction was also found at 30-50 ms in the spatially congruent condition, while no effect of congruency was found on the suppression of the P2. This indicates that visual prediction of auditory location can be coded very early in auditory processing.

  18. Self-organized natural roads for predicting traffic flow: a sensitivity study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Bin; Zhao, Sijian; Yin, Junjun

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we extended road-based topological analysis to both nationwide and urban road networks, and concentrated on a sensitivity study with respect to the formation of self-organized natural roads based on the Gestalt principle of good continuity. Both annual average daily traffic (AADT) and global positioning system (GPS) data were used to correlate with a series of ranking metrics including five centrality-based metrics and two PageRank metrics. It was found that there exists a tipping point from segment-based to road-based network topology in terms of correlation between ranking metrics and their traffic. To our great surprise, (1) this correlation is significantly improved if a selfish rather than utopian strategy is adopted in forming the self-organized natural roads, and (2) point-based metrics assigned by summation into individual roads tend to have a much better correlation with traffic flow than line-based metrics. These counter-intuitive surprising findings constitute emergent properties of self-organized natural roads, which are intelligent enough for predicting traffic flow, thus shedding substantial light on the understanding of road networks and their traffic from the perspective of complex networks

  19. Prediction of flow recirculation in a blanket assembly under worst-case natural-convection conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, E.U.; Rector, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    Reactor fuel and blanket assemblies within a Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) can be subjected to severe radial heat flux gradients. At low-flow conditions, with power-to-flow ratios of nearly the same magnitude as design conditions, buoyancy forces cause flow redistribution to the side of a bundle with the higher heat generation rate. Recirculation of fluid within a rod bundle can occur during a natural convection transient because of the combined effect of flow coastdown and buoyancy-induced redistribution. An important concern is whether recirculation leads to high coolant temperatures. For this reason, the COBRA-WC code was developed with the capability of modeling recirculating flows. Experiments have been conducted in a 2 x 6 rod bundle for flow and power transients to study recirculation in the mixed-convection (forced cooled) and natural-convection regimes. The data base developed was used to validate the recirculation module in the COBRA-WC code. COBRA-WC code calculations were made to predict flow and temperature distributions in a typical LMFBR blanket assembly for the worst-case, natural-circulation transient

  20. Predictability problems of global change as seen through natural systems complexity description. 2. Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir V. Kozoderov

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Developing the general statements of the proposed global change theory, outlined in Part 1 of the publication, Kolmogorov's probability space is used to study properties of information measures (unconditional, joint and conditional entropies, information divergence, mutual information, etc.. Sets of elementary events, the specified algebra of their sub-sets and probability measures for the algebra are composite parts of the space. The information measures are analyzed using the mathematical expectance operator and the adequacy between an additive function of sets and their equivalents in the form of the measures. As a result, explanations are given to multispectral satellite imagery visualization procedures using Markov's chains of random variables represented by pixels of the imagery. The proposed formalism of the information measures application enables to describe the natural targets complexity by syntactically governing probabilities. Asserted as that of signal/noise ratios finding for anomalies of natural processes, the predictability problem is solved by analyses of temporal data sets of related measurements for key regions and their background within contextually coherent structures of natural targets and between particular boundaries of the structures.

  1. Using squat testing to predict training loads for lower-body exercises in elite karate athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Del P; Tan, Erik C H; Chaouachi, Anis; Carling, Christopher; Castagna, Carlo; Bloomfield, Jonathan; Behm, David G

    2010-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between squat loads and 2 bilateral and 2 unilateral stepping lower-body exercises in predominantly unilateral movement elite athletes (Karate). Equations to predict loads for lower-body exercises based on the squat load were also determined. Fourteen male elite Karate athletes (age = 22.6 ± 1.2 years) performed 6 repetition maximum (RM) of the following free-weight bilateral exercises: back half squat, deadlift, leg press and unilateral stepping exercises, lunge; and step-up. Results showed that 6RM squat load was significantly (p squat load was a significant predictor for deadlift, leg press, lunge, and step-up (R2 range from 0.57 to 0.85, p squat load (1.12)-16.60 kg, (b) Leg press = squat load (1.66) + 16.10 kg, (c) Lunge = squat load (0.61) + 9.39 kg, and (d) step-up = squat load (0.85)-10.36 kg. Coaches and fitness professionals can use the 6RM squat load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for both bilateral and unilateral lower-body exercises with quadriceps as the prime mover. Load prescriptions for unilateral exercises should take into account the type of athletic population.

  2. Probe train including a flaw detector and a radiation responsive recording means with alignment means having a natural curved cast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stone, R.M.

    1975-01-01

    An inspection system for a multitube steam generator comprising a probe train for insertion in a tube to be inspected is described. The probe train includes, in series, directional probe means, such as an eddy current probe, for indicating the longitudinal and angular location of an irregularity at or in the wall of the tube, and radiation responsive recording means nonrotatable relative to the eddy current probe during operation and in substantially close longitudinal relationship thereto for receiving an image of the irregularity when laterally adjacent thereto; elongated alignment means joined to at least one end of the probe train against rotation relative thereto and insertable in the tube for controlling or determining the angular orientation of the probe train within the tube; means for propelling the probe train longitudinally within the tube; and a source of radiation insertable in another tube of the steam generator to a position therealong laterally adjacent the indicated irregularity for irradiation of the irregularity to project said image on the recording means. The directional probe means may preferably be an eddy current probe and the radiation responsive recording means may preferably be a film bearing cassette probe. The alignment means may be provided by a resilient naturally curved plastic cable, which cable might also be used to propel the probe train. (auth)

  3. Predicting the threshold of pulse-train electrical stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

    2004-04-01

    The incorporation of low levels of noise into an electrical stimulus has been shown to improve auditory thresholds in some human subjects (Zeng et al., 2000). In this paper, thresholds for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli are predicted utilizing a stochastic neural-behavioral model of ensemble fiber responses to bi-phasic stimuli. The neural refractory effect is described using a Markov model for a noise-free pulse-train stimulus and a closed-form solution for the steady-state neural response is provided. For noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli, a recursive method using the conditional probability is utilized to track the neural responses to each successive pulse. A neural spike count rule has been presented for both threshold and intensity discrimination under the assumption that auditory perception occurs via integration over a relatively long time period (Bruce et al., 1999). An alternative approach originates from the hypothesis of the multilook model (Viemeister and Wakefield, 1991), which argues that auditory perception is based on several shorter time integrations and may suggest an NofM model for prediction of pulse-train threshold. This motivates analyzing the neural response to each individual pulse within a pulse train, which is considered to be the brief look. A logarithmic rule is hypothesized for pulse-train threshold. Predictions from the multilook model are shown to match trends in psychophysical data for noise-free stimuli that are not always matched by the long-time integration rule. Theoretical predictions indicate that threshold decreases as noise variance increases. Theoretical models of the neural response to pulse-train stimuli not only reduce calculational overhead but also facilitate utilization of signal detection theory and are easily extended to multichannel psychophysical tasks.

  4. SU-F-E-09: Respiratory Signal Prediction Based On Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network Using Adjustable Training Samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, W; Jiang, M; Yin, F [Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Dynamic tracking of moving organs, such as lung and liver tumors, under radiation therapy requires prediction of organ motions prior to delivery. The shift of moving organ may change a lot due to huge transform of respiration at different periods. This study aims to reduce the influence of that changes using adjustable training signals and multi-layer perceptron neural network (ASMLP). Methods: Respiratory signals obtained using a Real-time Position Management(RPM) device were used for this study. The ASMLP uses two multi-layer perceptron neural networks(MLPs) to infer respiration position alternately and the training sample will be updated with time. Firstly, a Savitzky-Golay finite impulse response smoothing filter was established to smooth the respiratory signal. Secondly, two same MLPs were developed to estimate respiratory position from its previous positions separately. Weights and thresholds were updated to minimize network errors according to Leverberg-Marquart optimization algorithm through backward propagation method. Finally, MLP 1 was used to predict 120∼150s respiration position using 0∼120s training signals. At the same time, MLP 2 was trained using 30∼150s training signals. Then MLP is used to predict 150∼180s training signals according to 30∼150s training signals. The respiration position is predicted as this way until it was finished. Results: In this experiment, the two methods were used to predict 2.5 minute respiratory signals. For predicting 1s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.8250(MLP method) to 0.8856(ASMLP method). Besides, a 30% improvement of mean absolute error between MLP(0.1798 on average) and ASMLP(0.1267 on average) was achieved. For predicting 2s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.61415 to 0.7098.Mean absolute error of MLP method(0.3111 on average) was reduced by 35% using ASMLP method(0.2020 on average). Conclusion: The preliminary results

  5. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents

    OpenAIRE

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitativel...

  6. A New Approach to Predict the Fish Fillet Shelf-Life in Presence of Natural Preservative Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuffrida, Alessandro; Giarratana, Filippo; Valenti, Davide; Muscolino, Daniele; Parisi, Roberta; Parco, Alessio; Marotta, Stefania; Ziino, Graziella; Panebianco, Antonio

    2017-04-13

    Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS) were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  7. Roles of Radon-222 and other natural radionuclides in earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.R.; Wollenberg, H.A.; Mosier, D.F.

    1980-01-01

    The concentration of 222 Rn in subsurface waters is one of the natural parameters being investigated to help develop the capability to predict destructive earthquakes. Since 1966, scientists in several nations have sought to link radon variations with ongoing seismic activity, primarily through the dilatancy model for earthquake occurrences. Within the range of these studies, alpha-, beta-, and gamma-radiation detection techniques have been used in both discrete-sampling and continiuous-monitoring programs. These measured techniques are reviewed in terms of instrumentation adapted to seismic-monitoring purposes. A recent Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory study conducted in central California incorporated discrete sampling of wells in the aftershock area of the 1975 Oroville earthquake and continuous monitoring of water radon in a well on the San Andreas Fault. The results presented show short-term radon variations that may be associated with aftershocks and diurnal changes that may reflect earth tidal forces

  8. Numerical prediction of the natural frequency of an Oscillating Water Column operating under resonant conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Torresi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Among the different technologies developed in order to harness wave energy, the Oscillating Water Column devices are the most accredited for an actual diffusion. Recently, Boccotti has patented the REWEC1 (REsonant sea Wave Energy Converter solution 1, a submerged breakwater that performs an active coast protection, embedding an Oscillating Water Column device, which is capable of operating under resonant conditions with that sea state, which gives the highest yearly energy contribution. The REWEC1 dynamic behavior can be approximated by means of a mass-spring-damper system. According to this approximation, a criterion for evaluating the oscillating natural frequency of the REWEC1 has been derived. This criterion has been validated against both experimental results and computational fluid dynamics simulations, performed on a REWEC1 laboratory-scale model. The numerical simulations have shown a good agreement between measurements and predictions.

  9.  Running speed during training and percent body fat predict race time in recreational male marathoners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barandun U

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available  Background: Recent studies have shown that personal best marathon time is a strong predictor of race time in male ultramarathoners. We aimed to determine variables predictive of marathon race time in recreational male marathoners by using the same characteristics of anthropometry and training as used for ultramarathoners.Methods: Anthropometric and training characteristics of 126 recreational male marathoners were bivariately and multivariately related to marathon race times.Results: After multivariate regression, running speed of the training units (β=-0.52, P<0.0001 and percent body fat (β=0.27, P <0.0001 were the two variables most strongly correlated with marathon race times. Marathon race time for recreational male runners may be estimated to some extent by using the following equation (r2 = 0.44: race time (minutes = 326.3 + 2.394 × (percent body fat, % – 12.06 × (speed in training, km/hours. Running speed during training sessions correlated with prerace percent body fat (r=0.33, P=0.0002. The model including anthropometric and training variables explained 44% of the variance of marathon race times, whereas running speed during training sessions alone explained 40%. Thus, training speed was more predictive of marathon performance times than anthropometric characteristics.Conclusion: The present results suggest that low body fat and running speed during training close to race pace (about 11 km/hour are two key factors for a fast marathon race time in recreational male marathoner runners.Keywords: body fat, skinfold thickness, anthropometry, endurance, athlete

  10. Predicting Student Academic Performance: A Comparison of Two Meta-Heuristic Algorithms Inspired by Cuckoo Birds for Training Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Fung Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Predicting student academic performance with a high accuracy facilitates admission decisions and enhances educational services at educational institutions. This raises the need to propose a model that predicts student performance, based on the results of standardized exams, including university entrance exams, high school graduation exams, and other influential factors. In this study, an approach to the problem based on the artificial neural network (ANN with the two meta-heuristic algorithms inspired by cuckoo birds and their lifestyle, namely, Cuckoo Search (CS and Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA is proposed. In particular, we used previous exam results and other factors, such as the location of the student’s high school and the student’s gender as input variables, and predicted the student academic performance. The standard CS and standard COA were separately utilized to train the feed-forward network for prediction. The algorithms optimized the weights between layers and biases of the neuron network. The simulation results were then discussed and analyzed to investigate the prediction ability of the neural network trained by these two algorithms. The findings demonstrated that both CS and COA have potential in training ANN and ANN-COA obtained slightly better results for predicting student academic performance in this case. It is expected that this work may be used to support student admission procedures and strengthen the service system in educational institutions.

  11. Predicting intention to attend and actual attendance at a universal parent-training programme: a comparison of social cognition models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Sarah; Calam, Rachel

    2011-07-01

    The predictive validity of the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) were examined in relation to 'intention to attend' and 'actual attendance' at a universal parent-training intervention for parents of children with behavioural difficulties. A validation and reliability study was conducted to develop two questionnaires (N = 108 parents of children aged 4-7).These questionnaires were then used to investigate the predictive validity of the two models in relation to 'intention to attend' and 'actual attendance' at a parent-training intervention ( N = 53 parents of children aged 4-7). Both models significantly predicted 'intention to attend a parent-training group'; however, the TPB accounted for more variance in the outcome variable compared to the HBM. Preliminary investigations highlighted that attendees were more likely to intend to attend the groups, have positive attitudes towards the groups, perceive important others as having positive attitudes towards the groups, and report elevated child problem behaviour scores. These findings provide useful information regarding the belief-based factors that affect attendance at universal parent-training groups. Possible interventions aimed at increasing 'intention to attend' and 'actual attendance' at parent-training groups are discussed.

  12. Natural Gas Compression Technician: Apprenticeship Course Outline. Apprenticeship and Industry Training. 5311.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberta Advanced Education and Technology, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The graduate of the Natural Gas Compression Technician apprenticeship program is a certified journeyperson who will be able to install, commission, maintain and repair equipment used to gather store and transmit natural gas. Advanced Education and Technology has prepared this course outline in partnership with the Natural Gas Compression…

  13. Evaluation of the Predictive Capabilities of a Phenomenological Combustion Model for Natural Gas SI Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toman Rastislav

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study evaluates the predictive capabilities of a new phenomenological combustion model, available as a part of the GT-Suite software package. It is comprised of two main sub-models: 0D model of in-cylinder flow and turbulence, and turbulent SI combustion model. The 0D in-cylinder flow model (EngCylFlow uses a combined K-k-ε kinetic energy cascade approach to predict the evolution of the in-cylinder charge motion and turbulence, where K and k are the mean and turbulent kinetic energies, and ε is the turbulent dissipation rate. The subsequent turbulent combustion model (EngCylCombSITurb gives the in-cylinder burn rate; based on the calculation of flame speeds and flame kernel development. This phenomenological approach reduces significantly the overall computational effort compared to the 3D-CFD, thus allowing the computation of full engine operating map and the vehicle driving cycles. Model was calibrated using a full map measurement from a turbocharged natural gas SI engine, with swirl intake ports. Sensitivity studies on different calibration methods, and laminar flame speed sub-models were conducted. Validation process for both the calibration and sensitivity studies was concerning the in-cylinder pressure traces and burn rates for several engine operation points achieving good overall results.

  14. Saccadic gain adaptation is predicted by the statistics of natural fluctuations in oculomotor function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark V Albert

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to multiple factors such as fatigue, muscle strengthening, and neural plasticity, the responsiveness of the motor apparatus to neural commands changes over time. To enable precise movements the nervous system must adapt to compensate for these changes. Recent models of motor adaptation derive from assumptions about the way the motor apparatus changes. Characterizing these changes is difficult because motor adaptation happens at the same time, masking most of the effects of ongoing changes. Here, we analyze eye movements of monkeys with lesions to the posterior cerebellar vermis that impair adaptation. Their fluctuations better reveal the underlying changes of the motor system over time. When these measured, unadapted changes are used to derive optimal motor adaptation rules the prediction precision significantly improves. Among three models that similarly fit single-day adaptation results, the model that also matches the temporal correlations of the nonadapting saccades most accurately predicts multiple day adaptation. Saccadic gain adaptation is well matched to the natural statistics of fluctuations of the oculomotor plant.

  15. Prenatal Stress due to a Natural Disaster Predicts Adiposity in Childhood: The Iowa Flood Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelsey N. Dancause

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Prenatal stress can affect lifelong physical growth, including increased obesity risk. However, human studies remain limited. Natural disasters provide models of independent stressors unrelated to confounding maternal characteristics. We assessed degree of objective hardship and subjective distress in women pregnant during severe flooding. At ages 2.5 and 4 years we assessed body mass index (BMI, subscapular plus triceps skinfolds (SS + TR, an index of total adiposity, and SS : TR ratio (an index of central adiposity in their children (n=106. Hierarchical regressions controlled first for several potential confounds. Controlling for these, flood exposure during early gestation predicted greater BMI increase from age 2.5 to 4, as well as total adiposity at 2.5. Greater maternal hardship and distress due to the floods, as well as other nonflood life events during pregnancy, independently predicted greater increase in total adiposity between 2.5 and 4 years. These results support the hypothesis that prenatal stress increases adiposity beginning in childhood and suggest that early gestation is a sensitive period. Results further highlight the additive effects of maternal objective and subjective stress, life events, and depression, emphasizing the importance of continued studies on multiple, detailed measures of maternal mental health and experience in pregnancy and child growth.

  16. Social Informatics: Natural Tools for Students' Information Training in The Conditions of Embodied and Mental Approaches Being Employed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Barkhatova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The relevance of the problem under study is due to the society's requirements for the quality information training of a personality which is oriented to forming the solid fundamental knowledge as well as to developing the cognitive capacities that are needed for solving mental tasks. With regard to this, the paper is aimed at finding out the opportunities of applying the natural tools in information training of students from the standpoints of embodied and mental approaches. The main idea of these is integrated studying of an object, beginning with learning it in an "embodied" way and finishing with abstract models formed in the human memory. The leading approach to the research is the integrated one taking into account the psychological and pedagogical, didactic and methodological constituents. It allows identifying the psychological and pedagogical conditions of application of natural tools as well as the possible ways of their use. The authors describe models of natural tools of computer science training in individual sections of the school course as the main results. The materials of the paper are of practical value in methods of teaching computer science to students at various stages of education.

  17. The nature and prevalence of injury during CrossFit training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hak, Paul Taro; Hodzovic, Emil; Hickey, Ben

    2013-11-22

    CrossFit is a constantly varied, high intensity, functional movement strength and conditioning program which has seen a huge growth in popularity around the world since its inception twelve years ago. There has been much criticism as to the potential injuries associated with CrossFit training including rhabdomyolysis and musculoskeletal injuries. However to date no evidence exists in the literature to the injures and rates sustained. The purpose of this study was to determine the injury rates and profiles of CrossFit athletes sustained during routine CrossFit training. An online questionnaire was distributed amongst international CrossFit online forums. Data collected included general demographics, training programs, injury profiles and supplement use. A total of 132 responses were collected with 97 (73.5%) having sustained an injury during CrossFit training. A total of 186 injuries were reported with 9 (7.0%) requiring surgical intervention. An injury rate of 3.1 per 1000 hours trained was calculated. No incidences of rhabdomyolysis were reported. Injury rates with CrossFit training are similar to that reported in the literature for sports such as Olympic weight-lifting, power-lifting and gymnastics and lower than competitive contact sports such as rugby union and rugby league. Shoulder and spine injuries predominate with no incidences of rhabdomyolysis obtained. To our knowledge this is the first paper in the literature detailing the injury rates and profiles with CrossFit participation.

  18. Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in Different Regions of China Using a Hybrid MVO-NNGBM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyu Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and reasonable prediction of natural gas consumption is significant for the government to formulate energy planning. To this end, we use the multiverse optimizer (MVO algorithm to optimize the parameters of the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NNGBM (1,1 and propose a hybrid MVO-NNGBM model to predict the natural gas consumption in 30 regions of China. The results indicate that the prediction precision of the hybrid MVO-NNGBM model is better than that of other grey-based models. According to the forecast results, China’s natural gas consumption will grow rapidly over the next five years and reach 354.1 billion cubic meters (bcm by 2020. Moreover, the spatial distribution of natural gas consumption will shift from being supply oriented towards being demand driven and will be mainly concentrated in coastal and developed provinces.

  19. Incremental Validity of New Computerized Aptitude Tests for Predicting Training Performance in Nine Navy Technical Schools

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wolfe, John H; Larson, Gerald E; Alderton, David L

    2006-01-01

    During their second week of basic training, 4,989 Navy recruits assigned to one of nine technical training schools were administered a battery of six experimental computerized aptitude tests measuring four constructs...

  20. Concept of the aero-train and its aerodynamic stability nature

    OpenAIRE

    Kohama, Yasuaki P.; Watanabe, Hideo; Kikuchi, Satoshi; Ota, Fukuo; Ito, Takatoshi; 小濱 泰昭; 渡部 英夫; 菊池 聡; 太田 福雄; 伊藤 高敏

    2000-01-01

    Taking into account the serious greenhouse effect of the earth, drastic proposal which prevents the carbon dioxide emission from transportation system must be done. In Japan, over 20 percent of the carbon dioxide are emitted from transportation. Aero-train is the new zero-emission high speed vehicle, which is being proposed. Wing in ground effect is introduced to obtain highest lift to drag ratio and highest payload ratio. In order to compare the performance of the aero-train at 500 km/h, wit...

  1. In-training factors predictive of choosing and sustaining a productive academic career path in neurological surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, R Webster; Asthagiri, Ashok R; Starke, Robert M; Zusman, Edie E; Chiocca, E Antonio; Lonser, Russell R

    2012-04-01

    Factors during neurosurgical residency that are predictive of an academic career path and promotion have not been defined. To determine factors associated with selecting and sustaining an academic career in neurosurgery by analyzing in-training factors for all graduates of American College of Graduate Medical Education (ACGME)-accredited programs between 1985 and 1990. Neurological surgery residency graduates (between 1985 and 1990) from ACGME-approved training programs were analyzed to determine factors associated with choosing an academic career path and having academic success. Information was available for 717 of the 720 (99%) neurological surgery resident training graduates (678 male, 39 female). One hundred thirty-eight graduates (19.3%) held full-time academic positions. One hundred seven (14.9%) were professors and 35 (4.9%) were department chairs/chiefs. An academic career path/success was associated with more total (5.1 vs 1.9; P female trainees (2.6 vs 0.9 publications; P career but not predictive of becoming professor or chair/chief (P > .05). Defined in-training factors including number of total publications, number of first-author publications, and program size are predictive of residents choosing and succeeding in an academic career path.

  2. A coupled hydrodynamic-hydrochemical modeling for predicting mineral transport in a natural acid drainage system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zegers Risopatron, G., Sr.; Navarro, L.; Montserrat, S., Sr.; McPhee, J. P.; Niño, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The geochemistry of water and sediments, coupled with hydrodynamic transport in mountainous channels, is of particular interest in central Chilean Andes due to natural occurrence of acid waters. In this paper, we present a coupled transport and geochemical model to estimate and understand transport processes and fate of minerals at the Yerba Loca Basin, located near Santiago, Chile. In the upper zone, water presentes low pH ( 3) and high concentrations of iron, aluminum, copper, manganese and zinc. Acidity and minerals are the consequence of water-rock interactions in hydrothermal alteration zones, rich in sulphides and sulphates, covered by seasonal snow and glaciers. Downstream, as a consequence of neutral to alkaline lateral water contributions (pH >7) along the river, pH increases and concentration of solutes decreases. The mineral transport model has three components: (i) a hydrodynamic model, where we use HEC-RAS to solve 1D Saint-Venant equations, (ii) a sediment transport model to estimate erosion and sedimentation rates, which quantify minerals transference between water and riverbed and (iii) a solute transport model, based on the 1D OTIS model which takes into account the temporal delay in solutes transport that typically is observed in natural channels (transient storage). Hydrochemistry is solved using PHREEQC, a software for speciation and batch reaction. Our results show that correlation between mineral precipitation and dissolution according to pH values changes along the river. Based on pH measurements (and according to literature) we inferred that main minerals in the water system are brochantite, ferrihydrite, hydrobasaluminite and schwertmannite. Results show that our model can predict the transport and fate of minerals and metals in the Yerba Loca Basin. Mineral dissolution and precipitation process occur for limited ranges of pH values. When pH values are increased, iron minerals (schwertmannite) are the first to precipitate ( 2.5

  3. A Cultural Historical Activity Theory Approach in Natural Sciences Education Laboratory Lessons towards Reforming Teachers Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolokouri, Eleni; Theodoraki, Xarikleia; Plakitsi, Katerina

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on connecting natural sciences education with Cultural Historical Activity Theory (CHAT). In this sense, natural sciences education is considered as a lifelong learning procedure, not seen as an individual but as a collective activity. Moreover, learning becomes a human activity in which theory and praxis are strongly connected…

  4. New studies of the natural convection around a fuel rod of the BME training reactor with PIV/LIF technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szijarto, R.; Aszodi, A.; Yamaji, B.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the model of a fuel pin of the Training Reactor of Budapest University of Technology and Economics was investigated with Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence measurement methods. An experimental setup was designed, built and optimized to investigate the natural convection around a model of a fuel pin of the Training Reactor. The processes were analysed using an electrically heated rod, which models the geometry of the fuel rods in the Training Reactor. The heated length of the model is the same as the active length of the real fuel rods. The rod is placed in a glass tank with a shape of a square-based prism. An additional cooling system ensures constant flow conditions around the rod. The setup consists of an additional flow channel box, the equivalent diameter of which is equal to the equivalent diameter of the real fuel assembly. Simultaneous measurements of velocity and temperature fields were performed in different vertical positions for both cases of natural convection with and without the flow channel box. The effect of the presence of the channel was analyzed, and a laminarizating influence was observed. The local heat transfer coefficient was calculated for every measurement. The two dimensional measurement techniques gave extensive results, the structure of the hydraulic and thermal boundary layer were fully analyzed. (Authors)

  5. The Impact of Organisational Change on the Nature and Extent of Training in Australian Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew; Oczkowski, Edward; Noble, Charles; Macklin, Robert

    2004-01-01

    This article reports on a study investigating the relationship between the introduction of new management practices and the training provided by Australian enterprises for their employees. The new management practices investigated include teamworking, total quality management, lean production, business process re-engineering and the learning…

  6. Can we predict age at natural menopause using ovarian reserve tests or mother's age at menopause? A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depmann, Martine; Broer, Simone L; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Tehrani, Fahimeh R; Eijkemans, Marinus J; Mol, Ben W; Broekmans, Frank J

    2016-02-01

    This review aimed to appraise data on prediction of age at natural menopause (ANM) based on antimüllerian hormone (AMH), antral follicle count (AFC), and mother's ANM to evaluate clinical usefulness and to identify directions for further research. We conducted three systematic reviews of the literature to identify studies of menopause prediction based on AMH, AFC, or mother's ANM, corrected for baseline age. Six studies selected in the search for AMH all consistently demonstrated AMH as being capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 5.6-9.2). The sole study reporting on mother's ANM indicated that AMH was capable of predicting ANM (hazard ratio, 9.1-9.3). Two studies provided analyses of AFC and yielded conflicting results, making this marker less strong. AMH is currently the most promising marker for ANM prediction. The predictive capacity of mother's ANM demonstrated in a single study makes this marker a promising contributor to AMH for menopause prediction. Models, however, do not predict the extremes of menopause age very well and have wide prediction interval. These markers clearly need improvement before they can be used for individual prediction of menopause in the clinical setting. Moreover, potential limitations for such use include variations in AMH assays used and a lack of correction for factors or diseases affecting AMH levels or ANM. Future studies should include women of a broad age range (irrespective of cycle regularity) and should base predictions on repeated AMH measurements. Furthermore, currently unknown candidate predictors need to be identified.

  7. Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (Hdecreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the

  8. Elevated postvoid residual urine volume predicting recurrence of urinary tract infections in toilet-trained children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Shang-Jen; Tsai, Li-Ping; Hsu, Chun-Kai; Yang, Stephen S

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this study was to examine whether toilet-trained children with a history of febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI) and elevated postvoid residual (PVR) urine volume according to a recently published PVR nomogram were at greater risk of UTI recurrence. One month after recovery from febrile UTI, constipation was diagnosed according to the Rome III criteria, and lower urinary tract (LUT) function was evaluated with two sets of uroflowmetry and PVR by ultrasonography. For children aged ≦ 6 and ≧ 7 years, elevated PVR is defined as >20 and >10 ml, respectively. Cox proportion hazards regression was used to evaluate the risk factors for recurrence of UTI. Between 2005 and 2011, 60 children aged 6.5 ± 2.5 years (boy:girl ratio 27:33) were enrolled for analysis. Univariate analysis showed that recurrent febrile UTI was more commonly observed in children with elevated PVR [repetitive elevated PVR: hazard ratio (HR) 5.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41-23.4; one elevated PVR: HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.01-20.2] and high-grade vesicoureteral reflux (VUR; HR 4.53, 95% CI 1.46-14.07). Multivariate analysis showed that younger age (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03-1.82, p UTI--but not gender, presence of high-grade VUR and constipation. Elevated PVR defined by the new PVR nomogram predicted recurrent UTI in children with history of febrile UTI. Care should be taken to manage children with elevated PVR.

  9. Control beliefs can predict the ability to up-regulate sensorimotor rhythm during neurofeedback training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias eWitte

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Technological progress in computer science and neuroimaging has resulted in many approaches that aim to detect brain states and translate them to an external output. Studies from the field of brain-computer interfaces and neurofeedback have validated the coupling between brain signals and computer devices; however a cognitive model of the processes involved remains elusive. Psychological parameters usually play a moderate role in predicting the performance of brain-computer interface (BCI and neurofeedback (NF users. The concept of a locus of control, i.e. whether one’s own action is determined by internal or external causes, may help to unravel inter-individual performance capacities. Here, we present data from twenty healthy participants who performed a feedback task based on EEG recordings of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR. One group of ten participants underwent ten training sessions where the amplitude of the SMR was coupled to a vertical feedback bar. The other group of ten participants participated in the same task but relied on sham feedback. Our analysis revealed that a locus of control score focusing on control beliefs with regard to technology negatively correlated with the power of SMR. These preliminary results suggest that participants whose confidence in control over technical devices is high might consume additional cognitive resources. This higher effort in turn may interfere with brain states of relaxation as reflected in the SMR. As a consequence, one way to improve control over brain signals in neurofeedback paradigms may be to explicitly instruct users not to force mastery but instead to aim at a state of effortless relaxation.

  10. Hydrophysical conditions and periphyton in natural rivers. Analysis and predictive modelling of periphyton by changed regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stokseth, S.

    1994-10-01

    The objective of this thesis has been to examine the interaction between hydrodynamical and physical factors and the temporal and spatial dynamics of periphyton in natural steep rivers. The study strategy has been to work with quantitative system variables to be able to evaluate the potential usability of a predictive model for periphyton changes as a response to river regulations. The thesis is constituted by a theoretical and an empirical study. The theoretical study is aimed at presenting a conceptual model of the relevant factors based on an analysis of published studies. Effort has been made to evaluate and present the background material in a structured way. To concurrently handle the spatial and temporal dynamics of periphyton a new method for data collection has been developed. A procedure for quantifying the photo registrations has been developed. The simple hydrodynamical parameters were estimated from a set of standard formulas whereas the complex parameters were estimated from a three dimensional simulation model called SSIIM. The main conclusion from the analysis is that flood events are the major controlling factors wrt. periphyton biomass and that water temperature is of major importance for the periphyton resistance. Low temperature clearly increases the periphyton erosion resistance. Thus, to model or control the temporal dynamics the river periphyton, the water temperature and the frequency and size of floods should be regarded the most significant controlling factors. The data in this study has been collected from a river with a stable water quality and frequent floods. 109 refs., 41 figs., 34 tabs

  11. Collaborative Science: Human Sensor Networks for Real-time Natural Disaster Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M.; Yesha, Y.; Aulov, O.; Martineau, J.; Brown, S.; Conte, T.; CenterHybrid Multicore Productivity Research

    2010-12-01

    We have implemented a ‘Human Sensor Network’ as a real time collaborative science data observing system by collecting and integrating the vast untapped information potential of digital social media data sources occurring during the oil spill situation arising from the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico. We collected, and archived blogs, Twitter status updates (aka tweets), photographs posted to Flicker, and videos posted to YouTube related to the Gulf oil spill and processed the meta data, text, and photos to extract quantitative physical data such as locations and estimates of the severity and dispersion of oil being collected on the beaches and marshes, frequencies of observations of tar ball sightings, correlations of sightings from different media, numbers of dead or distressed animals, trends, etc. These data were then introduced into the NOAA operational Gnome oil spill predictive model as time dependent boundary conditions employing a 2-D variational data assimilation scheme. The three participating institutions employed a distributed cloud computing system for the processing and model executions. In this presentation, we conducted preliminary forecast impact tests of the Gnome model with and without the use of social media data using a 2-D variational data assimilation technique. The 2-D VAR is used to adjust the state variables of the model by recursively minimizing the differences between oil spill predictions reaching locations across the entire coastlines of the Gulf of Mexico and the estimated positions of oil derived from analyzed social media data. Ensemble forecasts will be performed to provide estimates of the rates of oil and surface oil distributions emanating from the Deepwater Horizon. We display the derived predictions from the photos and animations from Flicker, YouTube, and extracted content from tweets and blogs in a dynamic representation on very large tiled walls of LCDs at the UCSD Cal IT2 visualization facility. We describe the

  12. Manual physical balance assistance of therapists during gait training of stroke survivors: characteristics and predicting the timing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haarman, Juliet A M; Maartens, Erik; van der Kooij, Herman; Buurke, Jaap H; Reenalda, Jasper; Rietman, Johan S

    2017-12-02

    During gait training, physical therapists continuously supervise stroke survivors and provide physical support to their pelvis when they judge that the patient is unable to keep his balance. This paper is the first in providing quantitative data about the corrective forces that therapists use during gait training. It is assumed that changes in the acceleration of a patient's COM are a good predictor for therapeutic balance assistance during the training sessions Therefore, this paper provides a method that predicts the timing of therapeutic balance assistance, based on acceleration data of the sacrum. Eight sub-acute stroke survivors and seven therapists were included in this study. Patients were asked to perform straight line walking as well as slalom walking in a conventional training setting. Acceleration of the sacrum was captured by an Inertial Magnetic Measurement Unit. Balance-assisting corrective forces applied by the therapist were collected from two force sensors positioned on both sides of the patient's hips. Measures to characterize the therapeutic balance assistance were the amount of force, duration, impulse and the anatomical plane in which the assistance took place. Based on the acceleration data of the sacrum, an algorithm was developed to predict therapeutic balance assistance. To validate the developed algorithm, the predicted events of balance assistance by the algorithm were compared with the actual provided therapeutic assistance. The algorithm was able to predict the actual therapeutic assistance with a Positive Predictive Value of 87% and a True Positive Rate of 81%. Assistance mainly took place over the medio-lateral axis and corrective forces of about 2% of the patient's body weight (15.9 N (11), median (IQR)) were provided by therapists in this plane. Median duration of balance assistance was 1.1 s (0.6) (median (IQR)) and median impulse was 9.4Ns (8.2) (median (IQR)). Although therapists were specifically instructed to aim for the

  13. Characterizing natural organic matter in drinking water treatment processes and trains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baghoth, S.A.

    2012-01-01

    Natural organic matter (NOM) generally influences water treatment processes such as coagulation, oxidation, adsorption, and membrane filtration. NOM contributes colour, taste and odour in drinking water, fouls membranes, serves as a precursor for disinfection by-products, increases the exhaustion

  14. Theoretical training bases for young athletes in aquatic sports on the natural environment: Bodyboard.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Mecías Calvo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The bodyboard is a surfing discipline whose growth has been considerably since the 60s, so it is considered one of the fastest growing aquatic sport in the world. Despite this, scientific research of this discipline has been reflected poorly compared to other sports. As in any other sport, the bodyboarder requires of specific physical and physiological conditions to help it to practice the sport effectively as it does not follow a specific training or develop conditioning programs. Therefore, this article comes up with the idea of providing a basis for determining the most appropriate training based on study objectives and bodyboard actions to improve physical, technical and psychological condition of the bodyboarders based on the particularities of their own sport and the athlete, taking into account scientific studies in the field at hand: the Bodyboard.

  15. Prefrontal activation may predict working-memory training gain in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeij, A.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Heskamp, L.; Simons, E.M.F.; Dautzenberg, P.LJ.; Claassen, J.A.H.R.

    2017-01-01

    Cognitive training has been shown to result in improved behavioral performance in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), yet little is known about the neural correlates of cognitive plasticity, or about individual differences in responsiveness to cognitive training. In this study, 21

  16. Prefrontal activation may predict working-memory training gain in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeij, Anouk; Kessels, Roy P C; Heskamp, Linda; Simons, Esther M F; Dautzenberg, Paul L J; Claassen, Jurgen A H R

    2017-02-01

    Cognitive training has been shown to result in improved behavioral performance in normal aging and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), yet little is known about the neural correlates of cognitive plasticity, or about individual differences in responsiveness to cognitive training. In this study, 21 healthy older adults and 14 patients with MCI received five weeks of adaptive computerized working-memory (WM) training. Before and after training, functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) was used to assess the hemodynamic response in left and right prefrontal cortex during performance of a verbal n-back task with varying levels of WM load. After training, healthy older adults demonstrated decreased prefrontal activation at high WM load, which may indicate increased processing efficiency. Although MCI patients showed improved behavioral performance at low WM load after training, no evidence was found for training-related changes in prefrontal activation. Whole-group analyses showed that a relatively strong hemodynamic response at low WM load was related to worse behavioral performance, while a relatively strong hemodynamic response at high WM load was related to higher training gain. Therefore, a 'youth-like' prefrontal activation pattern at older age may be associated with better behavioral outcome and cognitive plasticity.

  17. Previous injuries and some training characteristics predict running-related injuries in recreational runners: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Pena Costa, Leonardo Oliveira; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2013-12-01

    What is the incidence of running-related injuries (RRIs) in recreational runners? Which personal and training characteristics predict RRIs in recreational runners? Prospective cohort study. A total of 200 recreational runners answered a fortnightly online survey containing questions about their running routine, races, and presence of RRI. These runners were followed-up for a period of 12 weeks. The primary outcome of this study was running-related injury. The incidence of injuries was calculated taking into account the exposure to running and was expressed by RRI/1000 hours. The association between potential predictive factors and RRIs was estimated using generalised estimating equation models. A total of 84 RRIs were registered in 60 (31%) of the 191 recreational runners who completed all follow-up surveys. Of the injured runners 30% (n=18/60) developed two or more RRIs, with 5/18 (28%) being recurrences. The incidence of RRI was 10 RRI/1000 hours of running exposure. The main type of RRI observed was muscle injuries (30%, n=25/84). The knee was the most commonly affected anatomical region (19%, n=16/84). The variables associated with RRI were: previous RRI (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.51), duration of training although the effect was very small (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02), speed training (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.10), and interval training (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.88). Physiotherapists should be aware and advise runners that past RRI and speed training are associated with increased risk of further RRI, while interval training is associated with lower risk, although these associations may not be causative. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. A new approach to predict the fish fillet shelf-life in presence of natural preservative agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Giufffrida

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Three data sets concerning the behaviour of spoilage flora of fillets treated with natural preservative substances (NPS were used to construct a new kind of mathematical predictive model. This model, unlike other ones, allows expressing the antibacterial effect of the NPS separately from the prediction of the growth rate. This approach, based on the introduction of a parameter into the predictive primary model, produced a good fitting of observed data and allowed characterising quantitatively the increase of shelf-life of fillets.

  19. Predictive Models to Estimate Probabilities of Injuries and Adverse Performance Outcomes in U.S. Army Basic Combat Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    orofacial injuries.10 These and other efforts have been associated with reduced BCT injuries over time as shown in Figure 111 but injury incidence...to predict first episode of low back pain in Soldiers undergoing combat medic training. Moran et al30 reported an AUG of . 765 for a pragmatic 5...Dugan JL, Robinson ME. Predictors of occurrence and severity of first time low back pain episodes: Findings from a military inception cohort. PLoS

  20. An Analysis of Natural T Cell Responses to Predicted Tumor Neoepitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Anne-Mette; Nielsen, Morten; Jurtz, Vanessa Isabell

    2017-01-01

    Personalization of cancer immunotherapies such as therapeutic vaccines and adoptive T-cell therapy may benefit from efficient identification and targeting of patient-specific neoepitopes. However, current neoepitope prediction methods based on sequencing and predictions of epitope processing...

  1. Comparative analysis of modified PMV models and SET models to predict human thermal sensation in naturally ventilated buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jie; Wang, Yi; Wargocki, Pawel

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, a comparative analysis was performed on the human thermal sensation estimated by modified predicted mean vote (PMV) models and modified standard effective temperature (SET) models in naturally ventilated buildings; the data were collected in field study. These prediction models were....../s, the expectancy factors for the extended PMV model and the extended SET model were from 0.770 to 0.974 and from 1.330 to 1.363, and the adaptive coefficients for the adaptive PMV model and the adaptive SET model were from 0.029 to 0.167 and from-0.213 to-0.195. In addition, the difference in thermal sensation...... between the measured and predicted values using the modified PMV models exceeded 25%, while the difference between the measured thermal sensation and the predicted thermal sensation using modified SET models was approximately less than 25%. It is concluded that the modified SET models can predict human...

  2. Educational and training aspects of new surgical techniques: experience with the endoscopic–laparoscopic interdisciplinary training entity (ELITE) model in training for a natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) approach to appendectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillen, Sonja; Gröne, Jörn; Knödgen, Fritz; Wolf, Petra; Meyer, Michael; Friess, Helmut; Buhr, Heinz-Johannes; Ritz, Jörg-Peter; Feussner, Hubertus; Lehmann, Kai S

    2012-08-01

    Natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) is a new surgical concept that requires training before it is introduced into clinical practice. The endoscopic–laparoscopic interdisciplinary training entity (ELITE) is a training model for NOTES interventions. The latest research has concentrated on new materials for organs with realistic optical and haptic characteristics and the possibility of high-frequency dissection. This study aimed to assess both the ELITE model in a surgical training course and the construct validity of a newly developed NOTES appendectomy scenario. The 70 attendees of the 2010 Practical Course for Visceral Surgery (Warnemuende, Germany) took part in the study and performed a NOTES appendectomy via a transsigmoidal access. The primary end point was the total time required for the appendectomy, including retrieval of the appendix. Subjective evaluation of the model was performed using a questionnaire. Subgroups were analyzed according to laparoscopic and endoscopic experience. The participants with endoscopic or laparoscopic experience completed the task significantly faster than the inexperienced participants (p = 0.009 and 0.019, respectively). Endoscopic experience was the strongest influencing factor, whereas laparoscopic experience had limited impact on the participants with previous endoscopic experience. As shown by the findings, 87.3% of the participants stated that the ELITE model was suitable for the NOTES training scenario, and 88.7% found the newly developed model anatomically realistic. This study was able to establish face and construct validity for the ELITE model with a large group of surgeons. The ELITE model seems to be well suited for the training of NOTES as a new surgical technique in an established gastrointestinal surgery skills course.

  3. Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, E.

    2006-01-01

    The ability to predict individual breeding values in natural populations with known pedigrees has provided a powerful tool to separate phenotypic values into their genetic and environmental components in a nonexperimental setting. This has allowed sophisticated analyses of selection, as well as

  4. A qualitative investigation of the nature of "informal supervision" among therapists in training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coren, Sidney; Farber, Barry A

    2017-11-29

    This study investigated how, when, why, and with whom therapists in training utilize "informal supervision"-that is, engage individuals who are not their formally assigned supervisors in significant conversations about their clinical work. Participants were 16 doctoral trainees in clinical and counseling psychology programs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using the Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) method. Seven domains emerged from the analysis, indicating that, in general, participants believe that informal and formal supervision offer many of the same benefits, including validation, support, and reassurance; freedom and safety to discuss doubts, anxieties, strong personal reactions to patients, clinical mistakes and challenges; and alternative approaches to clinical interventions. However, several differences also emerged between these modes of learning-for example, formal supervision is seen as more focused on didactics per se ("what to do"), whereas informal supervision is seen as providing more of a "holding environment." Overall, the findings of this study suggest that informal supervision is an important and valuable adjunctive practice by which clinical trainees augment their professional competencies. Recommendations are proposed for clinical practice and training, including the need to further specify the ethical boundaries of this unique and essentially unregulated type of supervision.

  5. Predicting Future Training Opportunities Using the Land-Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Westervelt, James D; Nemeth, Sarah B; White, Michael J; Kemme, Michael R; Morrison, Dawn A; Eastgate, Christa; Ginsberg, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The future training/testing capacities of military installations and their surrounding regions are increasingly based on today's smart regional planning in collaboration with surrounding cities, counties, and states...

  6. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Training Devices: Elaboration and Application of the Predictive Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-07-01

    consider a two-subtask case where subtask I is difficult, while subtask 2 Is easy. rurther, suppose there are two training devices designed to teach the...extra cures an which he rrMeS to rely hut whikh ire’ not ava llableF whein he Lhanqe%" frrae training to thew actual Job. Iip Ir IL.AlI -. efl ~elleont

  7. Age, training, and previous experience predict race performance in long-distance inline skaters, not anthropometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

    2012-02-01

    The association of characteristics of anthropometry, training, and previous experience with race time in 84 recreational, long-distance, inline skaters at the longest inline marathon in Europe (111 km), the Inline One-eleven in Switzerland, was investigated to identify predictor variables for performance. Age, duration per training unit, and personal best time were the only three variables related to race time in a multiple regression, while none of the 16 anthropometric variables were related. Anthropometric characteristics seem to be of no importance for a fast race time in a long-distance inline skating race in contrast to training volume and previous experience, when controlled with covariates. Improving performance in a long-distance inline skating race might be related to a high training volume and previous race experience. Also, doing such a race requires a parallel psychological effort, mental stamina, focus, and persistence. This may be reflected in the preparation and training for the event. Future studies should investigate what motivates these athletes to train and compete.

  8. Individually - oriented a marching during study of natural-science disciplines - a basis of forming of professional competence of the future teacher of physical training.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omelchuk O.V.

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Directions of forming of professional competence of the future teachers are construed during study of natural-science disciplines. It is revealed, that in individually - oriented training one of the most efficient forms of preparation training is. Training is considered as the scheduled process of refilling of skills, knowledge, checks of the relation, idea, conduct. It is indicated, that the procedure of training rests on capabilities, tendencies, interests, valuable orientations, subject experience. She ensures intellectual development which affects in educational reachings.

  9. A Prediction Study of Aluminum Alloy Oxidation of the Fuel Cladding in Jordan Research and Training Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tahk, Y. W.; Oh, J. Y.; Lee, B. H.; Seo, C. G.; Chae, H. T.; Yim, J. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    U{sub 3}Si{sub 2}-Al dispersion fuel with Al cladding will be used for Jordan Research and Training Reactor (JRTR). Aluminum alloy cladding experiences the oxidation layer growth on the surface during the reactor operation. The formation of oxides on the cladding affects fuel performance by increasing fuel temperature. According to the current JRTR fuel management scheme and operation strategy for 5 MW power, a fresh fuel is discharged after 900 effective full power days (EFPD) with 18 cycles of 50 days loading. For the proper prediction of the aluminum oxide thickness of fuel cladding during the long residence time, a reliable model is needed. In this work, several oxide thickness prediction models are compared with the measured data from in-pile test by RERTR program. Moreover, specific parametric studies and a preliminary prediction of the aluminum alloy oxidation using the latest model are performed for JRTR fuel

  10. Proposal of a Global Training Load Measure Predicting Match Performance in an Elite Team Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan H. Lazarus

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The use of external and internal load is an important aspect of monitoring systems in team sport. The aim of this study was to validate a novel measure of training load by quantifying the training-performance relationship of elite Australian footballers.Methods: The primary training measure of each of 36 players was weekly load derived from a weighted combination of Global Positioning System (GPS data and perceived wellness over a 24-week season. Smoothed loads representing an exponentially weighted rolling average were derived with decay time constants of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 weeks. Differential loads representing rate of change in load were generated in similar fashion. Other derived measures of training included monotony, strain and acute:chronic ratio. Performance was a proprietary score derived from match performance indicators. Effects of a 1 SD within-player change below and above the mean of each training measure were quantified with a quadratic mixed model for each position (defenders, forwards, midfielders, and rucks. Effects were interpreted using standardization and magnitude-based inferences.Results: Performance was generally highest near the mean or ~1 SD below the mean of each training measure, and 1 SD increases in the following measures produced small impairments: weekly load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders; 1.5-week smoothed load (midfielders; 4-week differential load (defenders, forwards, and midfielders; and acute:chronic ratio (defenders and forwards. Effects of other measures in other positions were either trivial or unclear.Conclusion: The innovative combination of load was sensitive to performance in this elite Australian football cohort. Periods of high acute load and sustained increases in load impaired match performance. Positional differences should be taken into account for individual training prescription.

  11. Failure prediction for Crack-in-Corrosion defects in natural gas transmission pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedairi, B.; Cronin, D.; Hosseini, A.; Plumtree, A.

    2012-01-01

    Cracks occurring coincidentally with corrosion (Crack-in-Corrosion or CIC), represent a new hybrid defect in pipelines that are not directly addressed in the current codes or assessment methods. To understand the failure response of these defects, the finite element method using an elastic–plastic fracture mechanics approach was applied to predict the failure pressures of comparable crack, corrosion and CIC defects in 508 mm diameter pipe with 5.7 mm wall thickness. Failure pressure predictions were made based on measured tensile, Charpy impact and J testing data, and validated using experimental rupture tests. Plastic collapse was predicted for corrosion and crack defects using the critical strength based on the material tensile strength, whereas fracture was predicted using the measured J 0.2 value. The model predictions were found to be conservative for the CIC defects (17.4% on average), 12.4% conservative for crack-only defects, and 3.2% conservative for corrosion defects compared to the experimental tests, demonstrating the applicability of the material-based failure criteria. For the defects considered in this study, all were predicted to fail by plastic collapse. The finite element method provided less conservative predictions than existing corrosion or crack-based analytical methods. Highlights: ► Cracks occurring coincidentally with corrosion represent a new hybrid defect in pipelines. ► Existing methods for prediction corrosion and crack defect failure pressures are conservative. ► The FE method can provide improved prediction of rupture pressure using actual material properties. ► Failure was predicted using FE with a critical stress for plastic collapse and J value for fracture. ► FE failure pressure predictions for crack in corrosion defects were 17% conservative on average.

  12. Personal best marathon time and longest training run, not anthropometry, predict performance in recreational 24-hour ultrarunners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

    2011-08-01

    In recent studies, a relationship between both low body fat and low thicknesses of selected skinfolds has been demonstrated for running performance of distances from 100 m to the marathon but not in ultramarathon. We investigated the association of anthropometric and training characteristics with race performance in 63 male recreational ultrarunners in a 24-hour run using bi and multivariate analysis. The athletes achieved an average distance of 146.1 (43.1) km. In the bivariate analysis, body mass (r = -0.25), the sum of 9 skinfolds (r = -0.32), the sum of upper body skinfolds (r = -0.34), body fat percentage (r = -0.32), weekly kilometers ran (r = 0.31), longest training session before the 24-hour run (r = 0.56), and personal best marathon time (r = -0.58) were related to race performance. Stepwise multiple regression showed that both the longest training session before the 24-hour run (p = 0.0013) and the personal best marathon time (p = 0.0015) had the best correlation with race performance. Performance in these 24-hour runners may be predicted (r2 = 0.46) by the following equation: Performance in a 24-hour run, km) = 234.7 + 0.481 (longest training session before the 24-hour run, km) - 0.594 (personal best marathon time, minutes). For practical applications, training variables such as volume and intensity were associated with performance but not anthropometric variables. To achieve maximum kilometers in a 24-hour run, recreational ultrarunners should have a personal best marathon time of ∼3 hours 20 minutes and complete a long training run of ∼60 km before the race, whereas anthropometric characteristics such as low body fat or low skinfold thicknesses showed no association with performance.

  13. Common variant in OXTR predicts growth in positive emotions from loving-kindness training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isgett, Suzannah F; Algoe, Sara B; Boulton, Aaron J; Way, Baldwin M; Fredrickson, Barbara L

    2016-11-01

    Ample research suggests that social connection reliably generates positive emotions. Oxytocin, a neuropeptide implicated in social cognition and behavior, is one biological mechanism that may influence an individual's capacity to extract positive emotions from social contexts. Because variation in certain genes may indicate underlying neurobiological differences, we tested whether several SNPs in two genes related to oxytocin signaling would show effects on positive emotions that were context-specific, depending on sociality. For six weeks, a sample of mid-life adults (N=122) participated in either socially-focused loving-kindness training or mindfulness training. During this timespan they reported their positive emotions daily. Five SNPs within OXTR and CD38 were assayed, and each was tested for its individual effect on daily emotions. The hypothesized three-way interaction between time, training type, and genetic variability emerged: Individuals homozygous for the G allele of OXTR rs1042778 experienced gains in daily positive emotions from loving-kindness training, whereas individuals with the T allele did not experience gains in positive emotions with either training. These findings are among the first to show how genetic differences in oxytocin signaling may influence an individual's capacity to experience positive emotions as a result of a socially-focused intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Nonlinear System Identification Using Neural Networks Trained with Natural Gradient Descent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibnkahla Mohamed

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We use natural gradient (NG learning neural networks (NNs for modeling and identifying nonlinear systems with memory. The nonlinear system is comprised of a discrete-time linear filter followed by a zero-memory nonlinearity . The NN model is composed of a linear adaptive filter followed by a two-layer memoryless nonlinear NN. A Kalman filter-based technique and a search-and-converge method have been employed for the NG algorithm. It is shown that the NG descent learning significantly outperforms the ordinary gradient descent and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM procedure in terms of convergence speed and mean squared error (MSE performance.

  15. Deep learning and data assimilation for real-time production prediction in natural gas wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loh, K.K.L.; Shoeibi Omrani, P.S.; Linden, R.J.P. van der

    2018-01-01

    The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties

  16. natural

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elías Gómez Macías

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Partiendo de óxido de magnesio comercial se preparó una suspensión acuosa, la cual se secó y calcinó para conferirle estabilidad térmica. El material, tanto fresco como usado, se caracterizó mediante DRX, área superficial BET y SEM-EPMA. El catalizador mostró una matriz de MgO tipo periclasa con CaO en la superficie. Las pruebas de actividad catalítica se efectuaron en lecho fijo empacado con partículas obtenidas mediante prensado, trituración y clasificación del material. El flujo de reactivos consistió en mezclas gas natural-aire por debajo del límite inferior de inflamabilidad. Para diferentes flujos y temperaturas de entrada de la mezcla reactiva, se midieron las concentraciones de CH4, CO2 y CO en los gases de combustión con un analizador de gases tipo infrarrojo no dispersivo (NDIR. Para alcanzar conversión total de metano se requirió aumentar la temperatura de entrada al lecho a medida que se incrementó el flujo de gases reaccionantes. Los resultados obtenidos permiten desarrollar un sistema de combustión catalítica de bajo costo con un material térmicamente estable, que promueva la alta eficiencia en la combustión de gas natural y elimine los problemas de estabilidad, seguridad y de impacto ambiental negativo inherentes a los procesos de combustión térmica convencional.

  17. Which way the natural gas price. An attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchanan, W.K.; Hodges, P.; Theis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This research provides a method of predicting direction of spot price movements in the natural gas market for the month succeeding from market participants positions in the futures market. Cumby and Modest (Cumby, R.E., Modest, D.M., 1987. Testing for market timing ability: a framework for forecast evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics 19, 169-189) provide the backdrop for analyzing the futures market positions of large hedgers and speculators to arrive at conclusions of market price movements in the spot market. This methodology is suggested as a means for municipalities entering the natural gas market to improve upon their ordering of quantities of gas for the ensuing months in order to take advantage of possibly foreseeable price trends

  18. Alexander Technique Training Coupled With an Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction in Teachers With Low Back Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamalikhah, Tahereh; Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Rezaei-Moghaddam, Farid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Gholami-Fesharaki, Mohammad; Goklani, Salma

    2016-09-01

    Individuals suffering from chronic low back pain (CLBP) experience major physical, social, and occupational disruptions. Strong evidence confirms the effectiveness of Alexander technique (AT) training for CLBP. The present study applied an integrative model (IM) of behavioral prediction for improvement of AT training. This was a quasi-experimental study of female teachers with nonspecific LBP in southern Tehran in 2014. Group A contained 42 subjects and group B had 35 subjects. In group A, AT lessons were designed based on IM constructs, while in group B, AT lessons only were taught. The validity and reliability of the AT questionnaire were confirmed using content validity (CVR 0.91, CVI 0.96) and Cronbach's α (0.80). The IM constructs of both groups were measured after the completion of training. Statistical analysis used independent and paired samples t-tests and the univariate generalized linear model (GLM). Significant differences were recorded before and after intervention (P < 0.001) for the model constructs of intention, perceived risk, direct attitude, behavioral beliefs, and knowledge in both groups. Direct attitude and behavioral beliefs in group A were higher than in group B after the intervention (P < 0.03). The educational framework provided by IM for AT training improved attitude and behavioral beliefs that can facilitate the adoption of AT behavior and decreased CLBP.

  19. Testing a cue outside the training context increases attention to the contexts and impairs performance in human predictive learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aristizabal, José A; Ramos-Álvarez, Manuel M; Callejas-Aguilera, José E; Rosas, Juan M

    2017-12-01

    One experiment in human predictive learning explored the impact of a context change on attention to contexts and predictive ratings controlled by the cue. In Context A: cue X was paired with an outcome four times, while cue Y was presented without an outcome four times in Context B:. In both contexts filler cues were presented without the outcome. During the test, target cues X and Y were presented either in the context where they were trained, or in the alternative context. With the context change expectation of the outcome X, expressed as predictive ratings, decreased in the presence of X and increased in the presence of Y. Looking at the contexts, expressed as a percentage of the overall gaze dwell time on a trial, was high across the four training trials, and increased with the context change. Results suggest that the presentation of unexpected information leads to increases in attention to contextual cues. Implications for contextual control of behavior are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Larger Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Volume Predicts Better Exercise Adherence Among Older Women: Evidence From Two Exercise Training Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, John R; Chiu, Bryan K; Hall, Peter A; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

    2017-06-01

    Recent research has suggested an important role of lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) in consistent implementation of positive health behaviors and avoidance of negative health behaviors. We examined whether gray matter volume in the lPFC prospectively predicts exercise class attendance among older women (n = 122) who underwent either a 52-week or 26-week exercise training intervention. Structural magnetic resonance imaging determined gray matter volume at baseline. Independent of intracranial volume, age, education, body composition, mobility, depressive symptoms, and general cognitive functioning, larger lPFC volume predicted greater exercise class attendance (all p values exercise adherence as well as identified other regions, especially in the insula and temporal cortex, that predicted exercise adherence. These findings suggest that sustained engagement in exercise training might rely in part on functions of the lPFC and that lPFC volume might be a reasonable proxy for such functions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. A Natural Language Intelligent Tutoring System for Training Pathologists - Implementation and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Saadawi, Gilan M.; Tseytlin, Eugene; Legowski, Elizabeth; Jukic, Drazen; Castine, Melissa; Fine, Jeffrey; Gormley, Robert; Crowley, Rebecca S.

    2009-01-01

    Introduction We developed and evaluated a Natural Language Interface (NLI) for an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) in Diagnostic Pathology. The system teaches residents to examine pathologic slides and write accurate pathology reports while providing immediate feedback on errors they make in their slide review and diagnostic reports. Residents can ask for help at any point in the case, and will receive context-specific feedback. Research Questions We evaluated (1) the performance of our natural language system, (2) the effect of the system on learning (3) the effect of feedback timing on learning gains and (4) the effect of ReportTutor on performance to self-assessment correlations. Methods The study uses a crossover 2×2 factorial design. We recruited 20 subjects from 4 academic programs. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of the four conditions - two conditions for the immediate interface, and two for the delayed interface. An expert dermatopathologist created a reference standard and 2 board certified AP/CP pathology fellows manually coded the residents' assessment reports. Subjects were given the opportunity to self grade their performance and we used a survey to determine student response to both interfaces. Results Our results show a highly significant improvement in report writing after one tutoring session with 4-fold increase in the learning gains with both interfaces but no effect of feedback timing on performance gains. Residents who used the immediate feedback interface first experienced a feature learning gain that is correlated with the number of cases they viewed. There was no correlation between performance and self-assessment in either condition. PMID:17934789

  2. Observed and predicted measurements of photosynthesis in a phytoplankton culture exposed to natural irradiance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marra, J.; Heinemann, K.; Landriau, G. Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Photosynthesis-irradiance (P-I) curves were produced (using artificial illumination) from samples taken at one or more times per day from a continuous culture illuminated with sunlight. The continuous culture housed an oxygen electrode used to measure photosynthesis semi-continuously. Rates of photosynthesis predicted from P-I curves agreed with photosynthesis observed in the culture only for days of low irradiance. For sunny days or for days of variable irradiance, P-I curves predicted neither the morning photosynthesis maximum nor the afternoon depression. Daily integrals of predicted and observed photosynthesis, however, were probably within the possible errors of measurement. (orig.)

  3. Measuring sense of presence and user characteristics to predict effective training in an online simulated virtual environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Leo, Gianluca; Diggs, Leigh A; Radici, Elena; Mastaglio, Thomas W

    2014-02-01

    a model that predicts the level of presence based on the user characteristics. To maximize results and minimize costs, only those individuals who, based on their characteristics, are supposed to have a higher sense of presence and less negative effects could be selected for online simulated virtual environment training.

  4. MHC class I epitope binding prediction trained on small data sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundegaard, Claus; Nielsen, Morten; Lamberth, K.

    2004-01-01

    The identification of potential T-cell epitopes is important for development of new human or vetenary vaccines, both considering single protein/subunit vaccines, and for epitope/peptide vaccines as such. The highly diverse MHC class I alleles bind very different peptides, and accurate binding pre...... in situations where only very limited data are available for training....

  5. Predicting Employment Outcomes for Consumers in Community College Short-Term Training Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannery, K. Brigid; Benz, Michael R.; Yovanoff, Paul; Kato, Mary McGrath; Lindstrom, Lauren

    2011-01-01

    Postsecondary education has been linked to improved access to employment opportunities for individuals with and without disabilities. The purpose of this study was to determine factors associated with increased employment outcomes for Vocational Rehabilitation consumers enrolled in community college short term occupational skill training programs.…

  6. Using molecular classification to predict gains in maximal aerobic capacity following endurance exercise training in humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timmons, James A; Knudsen, Steen; Rankinen, Tuomo

    2010-01-01

    A low maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is a strong risk factor for premature mortality. Supervised endurance exercise training increases VO2max with a very wide range of effectiveness in humans. Discovering the DNA variants that contribute to this heterogeneity typically requires substantial s...

  7. Predicting the biological condition of streams: Use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Meador, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

  8. Blood Glucose Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks Trained with the AIDA Diabetes Simulator: A Proof-of-Concept Pilot Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gavin Robertson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes mellitus is a major, and increasing, global problem. However, it has been shown that, through good management of blood glucose levels (BGLs, the associated and costly complications can be reduced significantly. In this pilot study, Elman recurrent artificial neural networks (ANNs were used to make BGL predictions based on a history of BGLs, meal intake, and insulin injections. Twenty-eight datasets (from a single case scenario were compiled from the freeware mathematical diabetes simulator, AIDA. It was found that the most accurate predictions were made during the nocturnal period of the 24 hour daily cycle. The accuracy of the nocturnal predictions was measured as the root mean square error over five test days (RMSE5 day not used during ANN training. For BGL predictions of up to 1 hour a RMSE5 day of (±SD 0.15±0.04 mmol/L was observed. For BGL predictions up to 10 hours, a RMSE5  day of (±SD 0.14±0.16 mmol/L was observed. Future research will investigate a wider range of AIDA case scenarios, real-patient data, and data relating to other factors influencing BGLs. ANN paradigms based on real-time recurrent learning will also be explored to accommodate dynamic physiology in diabetes.

  9. Motion perception and driving: predicting performance through testing and shortening braking reaction times through training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Luke; Gray, Rob; Gaska, James; Winterbottom, Marc

    2013-12-30

    A driving simulator was used to examine the relationship between motion perception and driving performance. Although motion perception test scores have been shown to be related to driving safety, it is not clear which combination of tests are the best predictors and whether motion perception training can improve driving performance. In experiment 1, 60 younger drivers (22.4 ± 2.5 years) completed three motion perception tests (2-dimensional [2D] motion-defined letter [MDL] identification, 3D motion in depth sensitivity [MID], and dynamic visual acuity [DVA]) followed by two driving tests (emergency braking [EB] and hazard perception [HP]). In experiment 2, 20 drivers (21.6 ± 2.1 years) completed 6 weeks of motion perception training (using the MDL, MID, and DVA tests), while 20 control drivers (22.0 ± 2.7 years) completed an online driving safety course. The EB performance was measured before and after training. In experiment 1, MDL (r = 0.34) and MID (r = 0.46) significantly correlated with EB score. The change in DVA score as a function of target speed (i.e., "velocity susceptibility") was correlated most strongly with HP score (r = -0.61). In experiment 2, the motion perception training group had a significant decrease in brake reaction time on the EB test from pre- to posttreatment, while there was no significant change for the control group: t(38) = 2.24, P = 0.03. Tests of 3D motion perception are the best predictor of EB, while DVA velocity susceptibility is the best predictor of hazard perception. Motion perception training appears to result in faster braking responses.

  10. Predicting the required number of training samples. [for remotely sensed image data based on covariance matrix estimate quality criterion of normal distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalayeh, H. M.; Landgrebe, D. A.

    1983-01-01

    A criterion which measures the quality of the estimate of the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution is developed. Based on this criterion, the necessary number of training samples is predicted. Experimental results which are used as a guide for determining the number of training samples are included. Previously announced in STAR as N82-28109

  11. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  12. The nature and use of prediction skills in a biological computer simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavoie, Derrick R.; Good, Ron

    The primary goal of this study was to examine the science process skill of prediction using qualitative research methodology. The think-aloud interview, modeled after Ericsson and Simon (1984), let to the identification of 63 program exploration and prediction behaviors.The performance of seven formal and seven concrete operational high-school biology students were videotaped during a three-phase learning sequence on water pollution. Subjects explored the effects of five independent variables on two dependent variables over time using a computer-simulation program. Predictions were made concerning the effect of the independent variables upon dependent variables through time. Subjects were identified according to initial knowledge of the subject matter and success at solving three selected prediction problems.Successful predictors generally had high initial knowledge of the subject matter and were formal operational. Unsuccessful predictors generally had low initial knowledge and were concrete operational. High initial knowledge seemed to be more important to predictive success than stage of Piagetian cognitive development.Successful prediction behaviors involved systematic manipulation of the independent variables, note taking, identification and use of appropriate independent-dependent variable relationships, high interest and motivation, and in general, higher-level thinking skills. Behaviors characteristic of unsuccessful predictors were nonsystematic manipulation of independent variables, lack of motivation and persistence, misconceptions, and the identification and use of inappropriate independent-dependent variable relationships.

  13. Modeling techniques for predicting long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Winkle, W.

    1977-01-01

    Appropriate modeling techniques already exist for investigating some long-term consequences of the effects of radiation on natural aquatic populations and ecosystems, even if to date these techniques have not been used for this purpose. At the low levels of irradiation estimated to occur in natural aquatic systems, effects are difficult to detect at even the individual level much less the population or ecosystem level where the subtle effects of radiation are likely to be completely overshadowed by the effects of other environmental factors and stresses and the natural variability of the system. The claim that population and ecosystem models can be accurate and reliable predictive tools in assessing any stress has been oversold. Nonetheless, the use of these tools can be useful for learning more about the effects of radioactive releases on aquatic populations and ecosystems

  14. Predictive Factors for Natural Pregnancy after Microsurgical Reconstruction in Patients with Primary Epididymal Obstructive Azoospermia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Harza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Primary epididymal obstructive azoospermia (OA is the most prevalent form of OA in nonvasectomized patients and has been less studied. We aim to assess the results with microsurgical vasoepididymostomy used in the treatment of men diagnosed with primary epididymal obstructive azoospermia and to identify the factors associated with natural pregnancy occurring after microsurgical reconstruction. This prospective study included consecutive patients with epididymal OA who underwent microsurgical reconstruction in our center. Clinical and biological data were obtained every three months during follow-up. Occurrence of natural pregnancy was the primary study outcome. In total, 36 patients underwent microsurgical reconstruction. The mean age was 34±4.5 years (range 24–46 years. Median follow-up time was 15 [IQR 12–21] months. The total patency rate was 77.7% (n=28. During follow-up, 8 (22.2% natural pregnancies occurred. The overall live birth rate was 100%. Low FSH levels (HR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.052–0.88; P=0.032 and higher total motile sperm count (TMSC (HR: 1.001; 95% CI 1–1.001; P=0.012 were associated with a higher rate of natural pregnancy. Our data suggest that microsurgical vasoepididymostomy is an effective therapy of primary epididymal OA. Baseline lower FSH and higher TMSC were independent predictors for natural pregnancy occurrence.

  15. Predictive factors for natural pregnancy after microsurgical reconstruction in patients with primary epididymal obstructive azoospermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harza, Mihai; Voinea, Sebastian; Ismail, Gener; Gagiu, Cristian; Baston, Catalin; Preda, Adrian; Manea, Ioan; Priporeanu, Tiberiu; Sinescu, Ioanel

    2014-01-01

    Primary epididymal obstructive azoospermia (OA) is the most prevalent form of OA in nonvasectomized patients and has been less studied. We aim to assess the results with microsurgical vasoepididymostomy used in the treatment of men diagnosed with primary epididymal obstructive azoospermia and to identify the factors associated with natural pregnancy occurring after microsurgical reconstruction. This prospective study included consecutive patients with epididymal OA who underwent microsurgical reconstruction in our center. Clinical and biological data were obtained every three months during follow-up. Occurrence of natural pregnancy was the primary study outcome. In total, 36 patients underwent microsurgical reconstruction. The mean age was 34 ± 4.5 years (range 24-46 years). Median follow-up time was 15 [IQR 12-21] months. The total patency rate was 77.7% (n = 28). During follow-up, 8 (22.2%) natural pregnancies occurred. The overall live birth rate was 100%. Low FSH levels (HR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.052-0.88; P = 0.032) and higher total motile sperm count (TMSC) (HR: 1.001; 95% CI 1-1.001; P = 0.012) were associated with a higher rate of natural pregnancy. Our data suggest that microsurgical vasoepididymostomy is an effective therapy of primary epididymal OA. Baseline lower FSH and higher TMSC were independent predictors for natural pregnancy occurrence.

  16. ORIENTEERING SITUATION TESTS IN THE FUNCTION OF PREDICTING SUCCESS OF POLICE OFFICERS IN TOPOGRAPHY FIELD TRAINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boban Milojković

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The sample of 45 students (15 students of the I year of Police Academy – the members of orienteering section – Group 1, 15 students of the I year of Police Academy – Group 2 and 15 students of Advanced School of Interior Affairs – Group 3 has been chosen to test the degree of success in topography field training through several stages, and orienteering situation tests were used in one of these stages. The research was carried out following the completed theoretical and practical training in topography by the same teacher but according to various models. During the research, three batteries of tests were used, the tests of capability of fast and accurate reading of topographic maps in the form of perforated sections (T-1, T-2 and T-3. With regard to measuring success in solving orienteering situation tests of three tested groups based on which the educational efficiency of police members in topography field training should have been evaluated, the obtained results have shown that at a general level there were statistically important differences of total variance of the observed set of variables of tested groups at the level p = 0.000 (Willks Lambda, 0.056, F = 225.598. The results have shown that there were statistically important differences between the success in test solving with reference to groups at the level p = 0.002 and p = 0.000, respectively. Thedifferences between groups in the function of an individual test were as follows: T-1, there was a cross difference between all three groups; T-2, there was no difference between the first and second groups, but the third group differed in relation to the first and second ones; T-3, there was a cross difference between all three groups. The results of tested population by means of the stated instruments describe the level of competency of police members in topography respectively in order to individualize training, but primarily prove statistically considerable difference of the level

  17. Academic Training Lecture Regular Programme: Predictive Monte Carlo tools for LHC physics (1/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Predictive Monte Carlo tools for LHC physics (1/3), by Fabio Maltoni (Université Catholique de Louvain (BE)).   Wednesday, May 2, 2012 from 11:00 to 12:00 (Europe/Zurich) at CERN ( 503-1-001 - Council Chamber ) Simulations of events taking place at the LHC play key role in all experimental analyses. Starting from the basics concepts of QCD, we first review how accurate predictions can be obtained via fixed-order calculations at higher orders. Parton showers and event generation are then introduced as a means to achieve fully exclusive predictions. Finally  the recent merging and matching  techniques between fixed-order and fully exclusive simulations are  presented, as well as their implementations via the MLM/CKKW and MC@NLO/POWHEG methods. Organised by Mario Campanelli. More information here.

  18. Predicting lotto numbers : A natural experiment on the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand fallacy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jorgensen, C.B.; Tyran, J.R.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the ’law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized

  19. The Nature and Use of Prediction Skills in a Biological Computer Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavoie, Derrick R.; Good, Ron

    1988-01-01

    Describes mechanisms of thought associated with making predictions. Concludes that successful predictors had high initial knowledge of the subject matter and were formally operational. Unsuccessful predictors had low initial knowledge and were concretely operational. Systematic manipulation, note taking, and higher-level thinking skills were…

  20. Bacterial natural products : Prediction, regulation and characterization of biosynthetic gene clusters in Actinobacteria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ceniceros, Ana

    2017-01-01

    Secondary metabolites are produced by many microbes. They are not essential for life, but may provide a competitive advantage in the natural environment. Antibiotics are an important example, crucial agents in the human health system, widely used to combat infectious diseases. In view of the

  1. An Analysis of Natural T Cell Responses to Predicted Tumor Neoepitopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Mette Bjerregaard

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Personalization of cancer immunotherapies such as therapeutic vaccines and adoptive T-cell therapy may benefit from efficient identification and targeting of patient-specific neoepitopes. However, current neoepitope prediction methods based on sequencing and predictions of epitope processing and presentation result in a low rate of validation, suggesting that the determinants of peptide immunogenicity are not well understood. We gathered published data on human neopeptides originating from single amino acid substitutions for which T cell reactivity had been experimentally tested, including both immunogenic and non-immunogenic neopeptides. Out of 1,948 neopeptide-HLA (human leukocyte antigen combinations from 13 publications, 53 were reported to elicit a T cell response. From these data, we found an enrichment for responses among peptides of length 9. Even though the peptides had been pre-selected based on presumed likelihood of being immunogenic, we found using NetMHCpan-4.0 that immunogenic neopeptides were predicted to bind significantly more strongly to HLA compared to non-immunogenic peptides. Investigation of the HLA binding strength of the immunogenic peptides revealed that the vast majority (96% shared very strong predicted binding to HLA and that the binding strength was comparable to that observed for pathogen-derived epitopes. Finally, we found that neopeptide dissimilarity to self is a predictor of immunogenicity in situations where neo- and normal peptides share comparable predicted binding strength. In conclusion, these results suggest new strategies for prioritization of mutated peptides, but new data will be needed to confirm their value.

  2. Lasting Effects of Workplace Strength Training for Neck/Shoulder/Arm Pain among Laboratory Technicians: Natural Experiment with 3-Year Follow-Up

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Anders I.; Zebis, Mette K.; Pedersen, Mogens T.; Sjøgaard, Gisela; Andersen, Lars L.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. This study investigated long-term effects and implementation processes of workplace strength training for musculoskeletal disorders. Methods. 333 and 140 laboratory technicians from private and public sector companies, respectively, replied to a 3-year follow-up questionnaire subsequent to a 1-year randomized controlled trial (RCT) with high-intensity strength training for prevention and treatment of neck, shoulder, and arm pain. Being a natural experiment, the two participating companies implemented and modified the initial training program in different ways during the subsequent 2 years after the RCT. Results. At 3-year follow-up the pain reduction in neck, shoulder, elbow, and wrist achieved during the first year was largely maintained at both companies. However, the private sector company was rated significantly better than the public sector company in (1) training adherence, (2) training culture, that is, relatively more employees trained at the workplace and with colleagues, (3) self-reported health changes, and (4) prevention of neck and wrist pain development among initially pain-free employees. Conclusions. This natural experiment shows that strength training can be implemented successfully at different companies during working hours on a long-term basis with lasting effects on pain in neck, shoulder, and arm. PMID:24734247

  3. Lasting Effects of Workplace Strength Training for Neck/Shoulder/Arm Pain among Laboratory Technicians: Natural Experiment with 3-Year Follow-Up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Mortensen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. This study investigated long-term effects and implementation processes of workplace strength training for musculoskeletal disorders. Methods. 333 and 140 laboratory technicians from private and public sector companies, respectively, replied to a 3-year follow-up questionnaire subsequent to a 1-year randomized controlled trial (RCT with high-intensity strength training for prevention and treatment of neck, shoulder, and arm pain. Being a natural experiment, the two participating companies implemented and modified the initial training program in different ways during the subsequent 2 years after the RCT. Results. At 3-year follow-up the pain reduction in neck, shoulder, elbow, and wrist achieved during the first year was largely maintained at both companies. However, the private sector company was rated significantly better than the public sector company in (1 training adherence, (2 training culture, that is, relatively more employees trained at the workplace and with colleagues, (3 self-reported health changes, and (4 prevention of neck and wrist pain development among initially pain-free employees. Conclusions. This natural experiment shows that strength training can be implemented successfully at different companies during working hours on a long-term basis with lasting effects on pain in neck, shoulder, and arm.

  4. Adaptive value of phenological traits in stressful environments: predictions based on seed production and laboratory natural selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Brachi

    Full Text Available Phenological traits often show variation within and among natural populations of annual plants. Nevertheless, the adaptive value of post-anthesis traits is seldom tested. In this study, we estimated the adaptive values of pre- and post-anthesis traits in two stressful environments (water stress and interspecific competition, using the selfing annual species Arabidopsis thaliana. By estimating seed production and by performing laboratory natural selection (LNS, we assessed the strength and nature (directional, disruptive and stabilizing of selection acting on phenological traits in A. thaliana under the two tested stress conditions, each with four intensities. Both the type of stress and its intensity affected the strength and nature of selection, as did genetic constraints among phenological traits. Under water stress, both experimental approaches demonstrated directional selection for a shorter life cycle, although bolting time imposes a genetic constraint on the length of the interval between bolting and anthesis. Under interspecific competition, results from the two experimental approaches showed discrepancies. Estimation of seed production predicted directional selection toward early pre-anthesis traits and long post-anthesis periods. In contrast, the LNS approach suggested neutrality for all phenological traits. This study opens questions on adaptation in complex natural environment where many selective pressures act simultaneously.

  5. Factors of Predicted Learning Disorders and their Interaction with Attentional and Perceptual Training Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friar, John T.

    Two factors of predicted learning disorders were investigated: (1) inability to maintain appropriate classroom behavior (BEH), (2) perceptual discrimination deficit (PERC). Three groups of first-graders (BEH, PERC, normal control) were administered measures of impulse control, distractability, auditory discrimination, and visual discrimination.…

  6. Prediction Modeling for Academic Success in Professional Master's Athletic Training Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Scott L.; Crawford, Elizabeth; Wilkerson, Gary B.; Rausch, David; Dale, R. Barry; Harris, Martina

    2016-01-01

    Context: A common goal of professional education programs is to recruit the students best suited for the professional career. Selection of students can be a difficult process, especially if the number of qualified candidates exceeds the number of available positions. The ability to predict academic success in any profession has been a challenging…

  7. Neural Reactivity to Emotional Stimuli Prospectively Predicts the Impact of a Natural Disaster on Psychiatric Symptoms in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujawa, Autumn; Hajcak, Greg; Danzig, Allison P; Black, Sarah R; Bromet, Evelyn J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Kotov, Roman; Klein, Daniel N

    2016-09-01

    Natural disasters expose entire communities to stress and trauma, leading to increased risk for psychiatric symptoms. Yet, the majority of exposed individuals are resilient, highlighting the importance of identifying underlying factors that contribute to outcomes. The current study was part of a larger prospective study of children in Long Island, New York (n = 260). At age 9, children viewed unpleasant and pleasant images while the late positive potential (LPP), an event-related potential component that reflects sustained attention toward salient information, was measured. Following the event-related potential assessment, Hurricane Sandy, the second costliest hurricane in United States history, hit the region. Eight weeks after the hurricane, mothers reported on exposure to hurricane-related stress and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Symptoms were reassessed 8 months after the hurricane. The LPP predicted both internalizing and externalizing symptoms after accounting for prehurricane symptomatology and interacted with stress to predict externalizing symptoms. Among children exposed to higher levels of hurricane-related stress, enhanced neural reactivity to unpleasant images predicted greater externalizing symptoms 8 weeks after the disaster, while greater neural reactivity to pleasant images predicted lower externalizing symptoms. Moreover, interactions between the LPP and stress continued to predict externalizing symptoms 8 months after the hurricane. Results indicate that heightened neural reactivity and attention toward unpleasant information, as measured by the LPP, predispose children to psychiatric symptoms when exposed to higher levels of stress related to natural disasters, while greater reactivity to and processing of pleasant information may be a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Gravity inversion predicts the nature of the amundsen basin and its continental borderlands near greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Døssing, Arne; Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Olesen, Arne Vestergaard

    2014-01-01

    the results of 3-D gravity inversion for predicting the sediment thickness and basement geometry within the Amundsen Basin and along its borderlands. We use the recently published LOMGRAV-09 gravity compilation and adopt a process-oriented iterative cycle approach that minimizes misfit between an Earth model...... and observations. The sensitivity of our results to lateral variations in depth and density contrast of the Moho is further tested by a stochastic inversion. Within their limitations, the approach and setup used herein provides the first detailed model of the sediment thickness and basement geometry in the Arctic...... above high-relief basement in the central Amundsen Basin. Significantly, an up to 7 km deep elongated sedimentary basin is predicted along the northern edge of the Morris Jesup Rise. This basin continues into the Klenova Valley south of the Lomonosov Ridge and correlates with an offshore continuation...

  9. Predicting Health Care Utilization After Behavioral Health Referral Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Roysden, Nathaniel; Wright, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Mental health problems are an independent predictor of increased healthcare utilization. We created random forest classifiers for predicting two outcomes following a patient’s first behavioral health encounter: decreased utilization by any amount (AUROC 0.74) and ultra-high absolute utilization (AUROC 0.88). These models may be used for clinical decision support by referring providers, to automatically detect patients who may benefit from referral, for cost management, or for risk/protection ...

  10. Predicting Health Care Utilization After Behavioral Health Referral Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roysden, Nathaniel; Wright, Adam

    2015-01-01

    Mental health problems are an independent predictor of increased healthcare utilization. We created random forest classifiers for predicting two outcomes following a patient's first behavioral health encounter: decreased utilization by any amount (AUROC 0.74) and ultra-high absolute utilization (AUROC 0.88). These models may be used for clinical decision support by referring providers, to automatically detect patients who may benefit from referral, for cost management, or for risk/protection factor analysis.

  11. The Nature and Predictive Value of Mothers’ Beliefs Regarding Infants’ and Toddlers’ TV/Video Viewing: Applying the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaala, Sarah E.

    2014-01-01

    Viewing television and video programming has become a normative behavior among US infants and toddlers. Little is understood about parents’ decision-making about the extent of their young children’s viewing, though numerous organizations are interested in reducing time spent viewing among infants and toddlers. Prior research has examined parents’ belief in the educational value of TV/videos for young children and the predictive value of this belief for understanding infant/toddler viewing rates, though other possible salient beliefs remain largely unexplored. This study employs the integrative model of behavioral prediction (Fishbein & Ajzen, 2010) to examine 30 maternal beliefs about infants’ and toddlers’ TV/video viewing which were elicited from a prior sample of mothers. Results indicate that mothers tend to hold more positive than negative beliefs about the outcomes associated with young children’s TV/video viewing, and that the nature of the aggregate set of beliefs is predictive of their general attitudes and intentions to allow their children to view, as well as children’s estimated viewing rates. Analyses also uncover multiple dimensions within the full set of beliefs, which explain more variance in mothers’ attitudes and intentions and children’s viewing than the uni-dimensional index. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25431537

  12. The predictive nature of transcript expression levels on protein expression in adult human brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauernfeind, Amy L; Babbitt, Courtney C

    2017-04-24

    Next generation sequencing methods are the gold standard for evaluating expression of the transcriptome. When determining the biological implications of such studies, the assumption is often made that transcript expression levels correspond to protein levels in a meaningful way. However, the strength of the overall correlation between transcript and protein expression is inconsistent, particularly in brain samples. Following high-throughput transcriptomic (RNA-Seq) and proteomic (liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry) analyses of adult human brain samples, we compared the correlation in the expression of transcripts and proteins that support various biological processes, molecular functions, and that are located in different areas of the cell. Although most categories of transcripts have extremely weak predictive value for the expression of their associated proteins (R 2 values of < 10%), transcripts coding for protein kinases and membrane-associated proteins, including those that are part of receptors or ion transporters, are among those that are most predictive of downstream protein expression levels. The predictive value of transcript expression for corresponding proteins is variable in human brain samples, reflecting the complex regulation of protein expression. However, we found that transcriptomic analyses are appropriate for assessing the expression levels of certain classes of proteins, including those that modify proteins, such as kinases and phosphatases, regulate metabolic and synaptic activity, or are associated with a cellular membrane. These findings can be used to guide the interpretation of gene expression results from primate brain samples.

  13. Predicting the natural mortality of marine fish from life history characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gislason, Henrik

    For fish much of the life history is determined by body size. Body size and asymptotic size significantly influences important life history processes such as growth, maturity, egg production, and natural mortality. Futhermore, for a population to persist, offspring must be able to replace...... their parents on a one-for-one basis in the long run. Otherwise the population would either increase exponentially or become extinct. Combining data on growth and specific fecundity in a size-based fish community model of the North Sea and using the requirement of a one-for-one replacement provides...... the information necessary to estimate the scaling of natural mortality with size and asymptotic size. The estimated scaling is compared with output from multispecies fish stock models, with the empirical scaling of the maximum number of recruits per unit of spawning stock biomass with body size...

  14. The Employment of spatial autoregressive models in predicting demand for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro, Jorge Henrique de; Silva, Alexandre Pinto Alves da

    2010-01-01

    Develop the natural gas network is critical success factor for the distribution company. It is a decision that employs the demand given location 'x' and a future time 't' so that the net allows the best conditions for the return of the capital. In this segment, typical network industry, the spatial infra-structure vision associated to the market allows better evaluation of the business because to mitigate costs and risks. In fact, economic models little developed in order to assess the question of the location, due to its little employment by economists. The objective of this article is to analyze the application of spatial perspective in natural gas demand forecasting and to identify the models that can be employed observing issues of dependency and spatial heterogeneity; as well as the capacity of mapping of variables associated with the problem. (author)

  15. Sediment bacterial community structures and their predicted functions implied the impacts from natural processes and anthropogenic activities in coastal area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhiguo; Dai, Tianjiao; Tang, Yushi; Tao, Yile; Huang, Bei; Mu, Qinglin; Wen, Donghui

    2018-06-01

    Coastal ecosystem structures and functions are changing under natural and anthropogenic influences. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected from disturbed zone (DZ), near estuary zone (NEZ), and far estuary zone (FEZ) of Hangzhou Bay, one of the most seriously polluted bays in China. The bacterial community structures and predicted functions varied significantly in different zones. Firmicutes were found most abundantly in DZ, highlighting the impacts of anthropogenic activities. Sediment total phosphorus was most influential on the bacterial community structures. Predicted by PICRUSt analysis, DZ significantly exceeded FEZ and NEZ in the subcategory of Xenobiotics Biodegradation and Metabolism; and DZ enriched all the nitrate reduction related genes, except nrfA gene. Seawater salinity and inorganic nitrogen, respectively as the representative natural and anthropogenic factor, performed exact-oppositely in nitrogen metabolism functions. The changes of bacterial community compositions and predicted functions provide a new insight into human-induced pollution impacts on coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A novel method for predicting activity of cis-regulatory modules, based on a diverse training set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Sinha, Saurabh

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid emergence of technologies for locating cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) genome-wide, the next pressing challenge is to assign precise functions to each CRM, i.e. to determine the spatiotemporal domains or cell-types where it drives expression. A popular approach to this task is to model the typical k-mer composition of a set of CRMs known to drive a common expression pattern, and assign that pattern to other CRMs exhibiting a similar k-mer composition. This approach does not rely on prior knowledge of transcription factors relevant to the CRM or their binding motifs, and is thus more widely applicable than motif-based methods for predicting CRM activity, but is also prone to false positive predictions. We present a novel strategy to improve the above-mentioned approach: to predict if a CRM drives a specific gene expression pattern, assess not only how similar the CRM is to other CRMs with similar activity but also to CRMs with distinct activities. We use a state-of-the-art statistical method to quantify a CRM's sequence similarity to many different training sets of CRMs, and employ a classification algorithm to integrate these similarity scores into a single prediction of the CRM's activity. This strategy is shown to significantly improve CRM activity prediction over current approaches. Our implementation of the new method, called IMMBoost, is freely available as source code, at https://github.com/weiyangedward/IMMBoost CONTACT: sinhas@illinois.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Predictions for pentaquark states of hidden charm molecular nature and comparison with experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oset Eulogio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictions for hidden charm molecules, with and without strangeness, were made prior to the LHCb experiment. We discuss these issues and how these states can be observed in the reactions, Λb → J/ψK−p, Λb → J/ψηΛ, Λb → J/ψπ−p, Λb → J/ψK0Λ and Ξ−b → J/ψK−Λ by looking at the invariant mass distributions for J/ψp or J/ψΛ.

  18. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  19. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

    2005-01-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  20. Can hydrate dissolution experiments predict the fate of a natural hydrate system?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hester, K.C.; Peltzer, E.T.; Dunk, R.M.; Walz, P.M.; Brewer, P.G. [Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Inst., Moss Landing, CA (United States); Dendy Sloan, E. [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Center for Hydrate Research

    2008-07-01

    Gas hydrates are naturally occurring compounds found in permafrost regions and in oceans. In the natural environment, sufficient temperature and pressure conditions for hydrate formation exist over a significant portion of the ocean. However, in addition to pressure and temperature, the chemical potential of the gas in the hydrate must be equal to the surrounding waters. If the concentration of the gas in surrounding water is under-saturated with respect to the gas in the hydrate, the hydrate will dissolve to drive the system towards chemical equilibrium. This paper presented a dissolution study of exposed hydrate from outcrops at Barkley Canyon, located off Vancouver Island, British Columbia. A previous field experiment on synthetic methane hydrate samples had demonstrated that mass transfer controlled dissolution in under-saturated seawater. However, seafloor hydrate outcrops have been shown to have significant longevity compared to expected dissolution rates based upon convective boundary layer diffusion calculations. An in-situ dissolution experiment was performed on two distinct natural hydrate fabrics in order to help resolve this apparent disconnect between the dissolution rates of synthetic and natural hydrate. The paper presented a map of Barkley Canyon and discussed the field measurements and methods for the study. Exposed outcrops of gas hydrates were cored using a specially constructed stainless steel coring device and a hydraulic ram was located inside the corer. Hydrate samples were cored directly using the a manipulator arm and then injected into a sampling cell. The hydrate was then added to an open mesh exposure container, which allowed for exposure to ambient benthic currents with minimal disturbance. As well, in order to observe the slow dissolution of the hydrate in seawater at Barkley Canyon, time-lapse photography was employed. Last, the paper presented the results of the hydrate fabric porosities and hydrate dissolution rates. It was

  1. Validation of predictive models for geologic disposal of radioactive waste via natural analogs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.; Smith, C.F.

    1981-03-01

    The incorporation of toxic or hazardous material in the earth's crust is a phenomenon not unique to radioactive waste burial. Useful insights on the environmental transport and effects of underground toxic or radioactive material can be derived from comparative analysis against natural (mineral) analogs. This paper includes a discussion of the background and rationale for the analog approach, a descripton of several variations of the approach, and some sample applications to illustrate the concept, focusing on Radium-226 and Iodine-129 as specific case studies

  2. Didactic training vs. computer-based self-learning in the prediction of diminutive colon polyp histology by trainees: a randomized controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Taimur; Cinnor, Birtukan; Gupta, Neil; Hosford, Lindsay; Bansal, Ajay; Olyaee, Mojtaba S; Wani, Sachin; Rastogi, Amit

    2017-12-01

    Background and study aim  Experts can accurately predict diminutive polyp histology, but the ideal method to train nonexperts is not known. The aim of the study was to compare accuracy in diminutive polyp histology characterization using narrow-band imaging (NBI) between participants undergoing classroom didactic training vs. computer-based self-learning. Participants and methods  Trainees at two institutions were randomized to classroom didactic training or computer-based self-learning. In didactic training, experienced endoscopists reviewed a presentation on NBI patterns for adenomatous and hyperplastic polyps and 40 NBI videos, along with interactive discussion. The self-learning group reviewed the same presentation of 40 teaching videos independently, without interactive discussion. A total of 40 testing videos of diminutive polyps under NBI were then evaluated by both groups. Performance characteristics were calculated by comparing predicted and actual histology. Fisher's exact test was used and P  didactic training and 9 self-learning). A larger proportion of polyps were diagnosed with high confidence in the classroom group (66.5 % vs. 50.8 %; P  didactic training for predicting diminutive polyp histology. This approach can help in widespread training and clinical implementation of real-time polyp histology characterization. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Greco

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS, namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  4. A Model to Predict the Steady-State Concentration of Hydroxyl Radicals in the Surface Layer of Natural Waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minero, C.; Lauri, V.; Maurino, V.; Pelizzetti, E.; Vione, D.

    2007-01-01

    A model was developed to predict the steady-state [·OH] in the surface layer of natural waters as a function of nitrate, inorganic carbon (IC) and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The parameter values were studied in the range detected in shallow high-mountain lakes, to which the model results are most relevant. Calculations indicate that [·OH] increases with increasing nitrate and decreasing IC, and conditions are also identified where [·OH] is directly proportional, inversely proportional or independent of DOM. Based on the model results it is possible to predict the half-life time, due to reaction with ·OH, of given dissolved compounds, including organic pollutants, from the water composition data

  5. Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Roberto; Pagano, Luca

    2017-12-01

    To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flow-like landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

  6. Dimensionality and predictive validity of the HAM-Nat, a test of natural sciences for medical school admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hissbach, Johanna C; Klusmann, Dietrich; Hampe, Wolfgang

    2011-10-14

    Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat) for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS) factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of applicants, the proportion of successful completion of the curriculum

  7. Dimensionality and predictive validity of the HAM-Nat, a test of natural sciences for medical school admission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hissbach Johanna C

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Knowledge in natural sciences generally predicts study performance in the first two years of the medical curriculum. In order to reduce delay and dropout in the preclinical years, Hamburg Medical School decided to develop a natural science test (HAM-Nat for student selection. In the present study, two different approaches to scale construction are presented: a unidimensional scale and a scale composed of three subject specific dimensions. Their psychometric properties and relations to academic success are compared. Methods 334 first year medical students of the 2006 cohort responded to 52 multiple choice items from biology, physics, and chemistry. For the construction of scales we generated two random subsamples, one for development and one for validation. In the development sample, unidimensional item sets were extracted from the item pool by means of weighted least squares (WLS factor analysis, and subsequently fitted to the Rasch model. In the validation sample, the scales were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and, again, Rasch modelling. The outcome measure was academic success after two years. Results Although the correlational structure within the item set is weak, a unidimensional scale could be fitted to the Rasch model. However, psychometric properties of this scale deteriorated in the validation sample. A model with three highly correlated subject specific factors performed better. All summary scales predicted academic success with an odds ratio of about 2.0. Prediction was independent of high school grades and there was a slight tendency for prediction to be better in females than in males. Conclusions A model separating biology, physics, and chemistry into different Rasch scales seems to be more suitable for item bank development than a unidimensional model, even when these scales are highly correlated and enter into a global score. When such a combination scale is used to select the upper quartile of

  8. Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. L. Silva

    1999-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P, rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R; to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97 rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha, located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

  9. Unsteady single-phase natural circulation flow mixing prediction using CATHARE three-dimensional capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salah, Anis Bousbia; Vlassenbroeck, Jacques [Bel V - Subsidiary of the Belgian Federal Agency for Nuclear Contro, Brussels (Belize)

    2017-04-15

    Coolant mixing under natural circulation flow regime constitutes a key parameter that may play a role in the course of an accidental transient in a nuclear pressurized water reactor. This issue has motivated some experimental investigations carried out within the OECD/NEA PKL projects. The aim was to assess the coolant mixing phenomenon in the reactor pressure vessel downcomer and the core lower plenum under several asymmetric steady and unsteady flow conditions, and to provide experimental data for code validations. Former studies addressed the mixing phenomenon using, on the one hand, one-dimensional computational approaches with cross flows that are not fully validated under transient conditions and, on the other hand, expensive computational fluid dynamic tools that are not always justified for large-scale macroscopic phenomena. In the current framework, an unsteady coolant mixing experiment carried out in the Rossendorf coolant mixing test facility is simulated using the three-dimensional porous media capabilities of the thermal–hydraulic system CATHARE code. The current study allows highlighting the current capabilities of these codes and their suitability for reproducing the main phenomena occurring during asymmetric transient natural circulation mixing conditions.

  10. Prediction of refrigerant absorption and onset of natural convection in lubricant oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barbosa, Jader R.; Marcelino Neto, Moises A. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, SC 88040900 (Brazil); Thoma, Stefan M. [Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Sonneggstrasse 3, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2008-11-15

    Refrigerant absorption and mixing in lubricant oil are important in the design of refrigeration compressors and refrigeration systems. Experimental work is reported on absorption of R-134a vapour through the top interface of an initially stagnant layer of pure lubricant oil. Since the liquid refrigerant is heavier than the oil, mixing is enhanced due to natural mass convection. In the present paper, the behaviour of the liquid temperature during absorption is described based on measurements carried out in a test rig consisting of a transparent 70 mm ID, 150 mm long, vertical glass tube through which absorption can be directly observed. Transient liquid temperatures were measured at three different heights in the test section (two in the vapour, one in the liquid). The experimental work is complemented by a theoretical analysis of the critical time for the onset of mass transfer induced Rayleigh instability. The model is based on a critical mass transfer Rayleigh number criterion widely reported in the literature and takes into account the variation of physical properties in the liquid layer. The critical time for the onset of natural mass convection increases with decreasing system pressure as a result of a lower equilibrium concentration at the vapour-liquid interface. (author)

  11. Further comprehension of natural gas accumulation, distribution, and prediction prospects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In-depth research reveals that the natural gas accumulation and distribution are characterized by cycle, sequence, equilibrium, traceability, and multi-stage. To be specific, every geotectonic cycle represents a gas reservoir forming system where natural gas is generated, migrated, accumulated, and formed into a reservoir in a certain play. Essentially, hydrocarbon accumulation occurs when migration force and resistance reach an equilibrium. In this situation, the closer to the source rock, the higher the accumulation efficiency is. Historically, reservoirs were formed in multiple phases. Moreover, zones in source rocks and adjacent to source rocks, unconformity belts, and faulted anticline belts are favorable areas to finding large gas fields. Apart from the common unconformity belts and faulted anticline belts, in-source and near-source zones should be considered as critical targets for future exploration. Subsequent exploration should focus on Upper Palaeozoic in the southeastern Ordos Basin, Triassic in southwestern Sichuan Basin, Jurassic in the northern section of the Kuqa Depression and other zones where no great breakthroughs have been made. Keywords: Large gas field, Distribution characteristics, Potential zone, Prospect

  12. Evaluation method for core thermohydraulics during natural circulation in fast reactors numerical predictions of inter-wrapper flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamide, H.; Kimura, N.; Miyakoshi, H.; Nagasawa, K.

    2001-01-01

    Decay heat removal using natural circulation is one of the important functions for the safety of fast reactors. As a decay heat removal system, direct reactor auxiliary cooling system has been selected in current designs of fast reactors. In this design, dumped heat exchanger provides cold sodium and it covers the reactor core outlet. The cold sodium can penetrate into the gap region between the subassemblies. This gap flow is referred as inter-wrapper flow (IWF). A numerical estimation method for such natural circulation phenomena in a reactor core has been developed, which models each subassembly as a rectangular duct with gap region between the subassemblies and also the upper plenum in a reactor vessel. This numerical simulation method was verified based on experimental data of a sodium test using 7- subassembly core model and also a water test which simulates IWF using the 1/12 sector model of a reactor core. We applied the estimation method to the natural circulation in a 600 MW class fast reactor. The temperature in the core strongly depended on IWF, flow redistribution in the core, and inter-subassembly heat transfer. It is desired for prediction methods on the natural circulation to simulate these phenomena. (author)

  13. Identification of novel human dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors of natural origin (Part II: in silico prediction in antidiabetic extracts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Guasch

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Natural extracts play an important role in traditional medicines for the treatment of diabetes mellitus and are also an essential resource for new drug discovery. Dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV inhibitors are potential candidates for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and the effectiveness of certain antidiabetic extracts of natural origin could be, at least partially, explained by the inhibition of DPP-IV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using an initial set of 29,779 natural products that are annotated with their natural source and an experimentally validated virtual screening procedure previously developed in our lab (Guasch et al.; 2012 [1], we have predicted 12 potential DPP-IV inhibitors from 12 different plant extracts that are known to have antidiabetic activity. Seven of these molecules are identical or similar to molecules with described antidiabetic activity (although their role as DPP-IV inhibitors has not been suggested as an explanation for their bioactivity. Therefore, it is plausible that these 12 molecules could be responsible, at least in part, for the antidiabetic activity of these extracts through their inhibitory effect on DPP-IV. In addition, we also identified as potential DPP-IV inhibitors 6 molecules from 6 different plants with no described antidiabetic activity but that share the same genus as plants with known antidiabetic properties. Moreover, none of the 18 molecules that we predicted as DPP-IV inhibitors exhibits chemical similarity with a group of 2,342 known DPP-IV inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study identified 18 potential DPP-IV inhibitors in 18 different plant extracts (12 of these plants have known antidiabetic properties, whereas, for the remaining 6, antidiabetic activity has been reported for other plant species from the same genus. Moreover, none of the 18 molecules exhibits chemical similarity with a large group of known DPP-IV inhibitors.

  14. Reading Nature- experienced teachers’ reflections on a teaching sequence in ecology: implications for future teacher training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola Magntorn

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This article explores experienced primary teachers views on teaching for ‘reading nature’. The concept ‘reading nature’ has to do with an ability to recognise organisms and relate them to material cycling and energy flow in the specific habitat which is to be read. It has to do with the natural world that we face outside and the tools we have are our experiences from previous learning situations both in and out-of-doors. The teachers were asked to comment on the content of a CD-ROM with teaching sequences from a primary class studying a river ecosystem. Perceptions that teachers held were found to be supportive but complex and varied regarding the possibilities and advantages of implementing this type of teaching design in the everyday classroom. The paper finishes by identifying some implications for teacher training to support fieldwork and ecological literacy in primary schools in the future.

  15. The nature of adolescent competencies predicted by preschool delay of gratification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mischel, W; Shoda, Y; Peake, P K

    1988-04-01

    Delay of gratification, assessed in a series of experiments when the subjects were in preschool, was related to parental personality ratings obtained a decade later for 95 of these children in adolescence. Clear and consistent patterns of correlations between self-imposed delay time in preschool and later ratings were found for both sexes over this time span. Delay behavior predicted a set of cognitive and social competencies and stress tolerance consistent with experimental analyses of the process underlying effective delay in the preschool delay situation. Specifically, children who were able to wait longer at age 4 or 5 became adolescents whose parents rated them as more academically and socially competent, verbally fluent, rational, attentive, planful, and able to deal well with frustration and stress. Comparisons with related longitudinal research using other delay situations help to clarify the important features of the situations and person variables involved in different aspects of delay of gratification.

  16. Colour and luminance contrasts predict the human detection of natural stimuli in complex visual environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Thomas E; Rojas, Bibiana; Mappes, Johanna; Rautiala, Petri; Kemp, Darrell J

    2017-09-01

    Much of what we know about human colour perception has come from psychophysical studies conducted in tightly-controlled laboratory settings. An enduring challenge, however, lies in extrapolating this knowledge to the noisy conditions that characterize our actual visual experience. Here we combine statistical models of visual perception with empirical data to explore how chromatic (hue/saturation) and achromatic (luminant) information underpins the detection and classification of stimuli in a complex forest environment. The data best support a simple linear model of stimulus detection as an additive function of both luminance and saturation contrast. The strength of each predictor is modest yet consistent across gross variation in viewing conditions, which accords with expectation based upon general primate psychophysics. Our findings implicate simple visual cues in the guidance of perception amidst natural noise, and highlight the potential for informing human vision via a fusion between psychophysical modelling and real-world behaviour. © 2017 The Author(s).

  17. Using Precept-Assist® to predict performance on the American Board of Family Medicine In-Training Examination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Robert E; Jamena, Gemma P; Gamble, James D

    2014-09-01

    Precept-Assist® (PA) is a computer-based program developed by the Virtua Family Medicine Residency where residents receive a score on a Likert-type scale from an attending for each precept based on their knowledge base. The purpose of this study was to attempt to validate this program for precepting family medicine residents. This was a validation study. PA and American Board of Family Medicine (ABFM) In-Training Exam (ITE) scores for all residents from a community-based family medicine residency between the years 2002 and 2011 were included (n=216). Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between PA scores for the second quarter of the academic year (October 1 to December 31) and scores on the ITE. An ROC curve was also created to determine sensitivity and specificity for various PA scores in predicting residents scoring 500 or above on the ITE. The PA mean (SD) score was 5.18 (0.84) and the ITE mean (SD) score was 425.1 (87.6). The Pearson correlation coefficient between PA and ITE scores was 0.55, which is a moderately positive correlation. The AUC of the ROC curve was 0.783 (95% CI 0.704-0.859). A PA score of 5.5 (between the level of a PGY-2 and PGY-3) was 72% sensitive and 77% specific for scoring 500 or above on the ITE with a positive LR of 3.12. There is a significant correlation between PA scores and ABFM In-Training Exam scores. PA is a valid screening tool that can be used as a predictor for future performance in Family Medicine In-Training exams.

  18. User intent prediction with a scaled conjugate gradient trained artificial neural network for lower limb amputees using a powered prosthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, Richard B; Spanias, John A; Hargrove, Levi J

    2016-08-01

    Powered lower limb prostheses have the ability to provide greater mobility for amputee patients. Such prostheses often have pre-programmed modes which can allow activities such as climbing stairs and descending ramps, something which many amputees struggle with when using non-powered limbs. Previous literature has shown how pattern classification can allow seamless transitions between modes with a high accuracy and without any user interaction. Although accurate, training and testing each subject with their own dependent data is time consuming. By using subject independent datasets, whereby a unique subject is tested against a pooled dataset of other subjects, we believe subject training time can be reduced while still achieving an accurate classification. We present here an intent recognition system using an artificial neural network (ANN) with a scaled conjugate gradient learning algorithm to classify gait intention with user-dependent and independent datasets for six unilateral lower limb amputees. We compare these results against a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier. The ANN was found to have significantly lower classification error (P<;0.05) than LDA with all user-dependent step-types, as well as transitional steps for user-independent datasets. Both types of classifiers are capable of making fast decisions; 1.29 and 2.83 ms for the LDA and ANN respectively. These results suggest that ANNs can provide suitable and accurate offline classification in prosthesis gait prediction.

  19. Predicting Classifier Performance with Limited Training Data: Applications to Computer-Aided Diagnosis in Breast and Prostate Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basavanhally, Ajay; Viswanath, Satish; Madabhushi, Anant

    2015-01-01

    Clinical trials increasingly employ medical imaging data in conjunction with supervised classifiers, where the latter require large amounts of training data to accurately model the system. Yet, a classifier selected at the start of the trial based on smaller and more accessible datasets may yield inaccurate and unstable classification performance. In this paper, we aim to address two common concerns in classifier selection for clinical trials: (1) predicting expected classifier performance for large datasets based on error rates calculated from smaller datasets and (2) the selection of appropriate classifiers based on expected performance for larger datasets. We present a framework for comparative evaluation of classifiers using only limited amounts of training data by using random repeated sampling (RRS) in conjunction with a cross-validation sampling strategy. Extrapolated error rates are subsequently validated via comparison with leave-one-out cross-validation performed on a larger dataset. The ability to predict error rates as dataset size increases is demonstrated on both synthetic data as well as three different computational imaging tasks: detecting cancerous image regions in prostate histopathology, differentiating high and low grade cancer in breast histopathology, and detecting cancerous metavoxels in prostate magnetic resonance spectroscopy. For each task, the relationships between 3 distinct classifiers (k-nearest neighbor, naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine) are explored. Further quantitative evaluation in terms of interquartile range (IQR) suggests that our approach consistently yields error rates with lower variability (mean IQRs of 0.0070, 0.0127, and 0.0140) than a traditional RRS approach (mean IQRs of 0.0297, 0.0779, and 0.305) that does not employ cross-validation sampling for all three datasets. PMID:25993029

  20. Antral Follicle Count Predicts Natural Menopause in a Population-Based Sample: The CARDIA Women’s Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellons, Melissa F.; Bates, Gordon Wright; Schreiner, Pamela J.; Siscovick, David S.; Sternfeld, Barbara; Lewis, Cora E.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The timing of menopause is associated with multiple chronic diseases. Tools to predict this milestone have relevance for clinical and research purposes. Among infertile women, a positive relationship exists between antral follicle count (AFC) and response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation, a marker of ovarian reserve. However, a relationship between AFC and menopause that is age-independent has not been demonstrated. Thus, our objective was to evaluate the relationship between AFC measured in women at ages 34–49 and incident natural menopause over 7-years of follow-up. Methods The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study is a longitudinal community-based study (Chicago, Illinois; Birmingham, Alabama; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and Oakland, California) begun in 1985–1986. In 2002–03, the CARDIA Women’s Study measured FSH levels and performed a transvaginal ultrasound protocol that included AFC (2mm–10mm follicles on both ovaries). Incident natural menopause was assessed by survey in 2005–06 and 2009–10. Results In our sample (n=456), median AFC and FSH were 5 (IQR 2–9) and 7.8 mIU/mL (IQR 5.6–11.0), respectively, at a mean age of 42 (range 34–49) in 2002–03. 101 women reported natural menopause by 2009–10. In Cox models, current smoking, stable menses, FSH>13, and AFC ≤4 were independently associated with incident natural menopause. Compared to AFC >4, those with AFC ≤4 were nearly twice as likely to have undergone menopause over 7-years of follow-up (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.19–3.02) after adjustment for covariates. Conclusion AFC is independently associated with natural menopause over 7-years of follow-up after controlling for other markers of ovarian aging. PMID:23422869

  1. Predictive importance of anthropometric and training data in recreational male Ironman triathletes and marathon runners: comment on the study by Gianoli, et al. (2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtscher, Martin; Gatterer, Hannes

    2013-04-01

    Anthropometric and training data have been reported as statistically significant predictors of race performance in endurance events. However, it is well established that physiological characteristics, i.e., maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), the use of a high percentage of VO2max during sustained exercise, and work efficiency are predominant predictors of performance in those events. Thus, the essential issue is whether the anthropometric and training data give additional predictive power beyond these other measures.

  2. Prediction of soil shear strength in agricultural and natural environments of the Brazilian Cerrado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reginaldo Barboza da Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to develop uni- and multivariate models to predict maximum soil shear strength (τmax under different normal stresses (σn, water contents (U, and soil managements. The study was carried out in a Rhodic Haplustox under Cerrado (control area and under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems. Undisturbed soil samples were taken in the 0.00-0.05 m layer and subjected to increasing U and σn, in shear strength tests. The uni- and multivariate models - respectively τmax=10(a+bU and τmax=10(a+bU+cσn - were significant in all three soil management systems evaluated and they satisfactorily explain the relationship between U, σn, and τmax. The soil under Cerrado has the highest shear strength (τ estimated with the univariate model, regardless of the soil water content, whereas the soil under conventional tillage shows the highest values with the multivariate model, which were associated to the lowest water contents at the soil consistency limits in this management system.

  3. Calculation models for prediction of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ageing during ship transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miana, Mario; Hoyo, Rafael del; Rodrigalvarez, Vega; Valdes, Jose Ramon [Instituto Tecnologico de Aragon, Area de Investigacion, Desarrollo y Servicios Tecnologicos, Maria de Luna 7, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain); Llorens, Raul [ENAGAS SA, Direccion de Ingenieria y Tecnologia del Gas, Autovia A - 2, km. 306.4, 50012 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2010-05-15

    A group of European gas transportation companies within the European Gas Research Group launched in 2007 the 'MOLAS' Project to provide a software program for the analysis of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ageing process during ship transportation. This program contains two different modeling approaches: a physical algorithm and an 'intelligent' model. Both models are fed with the same input data, which is composed of the ship characteristics (BOR and capacity), voyage duration, LNG composition, temperature, pressure, and volume occupied by liquid phase at the port of origin, together with pressure at the port of destination. The results obtained are the LNG composition, temperature and liquid volume at the port of destination. Furthermore, the physical model obtains the evolution over time of such variables en route as it is based on unsteady mass balances over the system, while the i-model applies neural networks to obtain regression coefficients from historical data composed only of origin and destination measurements. This paper describes both models and validates them from previous published models and experimental data measured in ENAGAS LNG regasification plants. (author)

  4. Natural fiber composite design and characterization for limit stress prediction in multiaxial stress state

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher C. Ihueze

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the design of natural fiber composites and analysis of multiaxial stresses in relation to yield limit stresses of composites loaded off the fibers axis. ASTM D638-10 standard for tensile test was used to design and compose composites of plantain fiber reinforced polyester (PFRP. While the rule of mixtures was used in the evaluation of properties of composites in the fiber direction the evaluation of properties perpendicular or transverse to the fiber direction was done based on the value of the orthogonal stresses evaluated using ANSYS finite element software, the application of the Brintrup equation and Halpin–Tai equation. The yield strength for the plantain empty fruit bunch fiber reinforced polyester resin (PEFBFRP was estimated as 33.69 MPa while the yield strength of plantain pseudo stem fiber reinforced polyester resin (PPSFRP was estimated as 29.24 MPa. Above all, the PEFBFRP with average light absorbance peak of 45.47 was found to have better mechanical properties than the PPSFRP with average light absorbance peak of 45.77.

  5. Extralobar pulmonary sequestration in neonates: The natural course and predictive factors associated with spontaneous regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Hee Mang; Jung, Ah Young; Cho, Young Ah; Yoon, Chong Hyun; Lee, Jin Seong [Asan Medical Center Children' s Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Songpa-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ellen Ai-Rhan [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Division of Neonatology, Asan Medical Center Children' s Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Sung-Hoon [Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seon-Ok [Asan Medical Center, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    To describe the natural course of extralobar pulmonary sequestration (EPS) and identify factors associated with spontaneous regression of EPS. We retrospectively searched for patients diagnosed with EPS on initial contrast CT scan within 1 month after birth and had a follow-up CT scan without treatment. Spontaneous regression of EPS was assessed by percentage decrease in volume (PDV) and percentage decrease in sum of the diameter of systemic feeding arteries (PDD) by comparing initial and follow-up CT scans. Clinical and CT features were analysed to determine factors associated with PDV and PDD rates. Fifty-one neonates were included. The cumulative proportions of patients reaching PDV > 50 % and PDD > 50 % were 93.0 % and 73.3 % at 4 years, respectively. Tissue attenuation was significantly associated with PDV rate (B = -21.78, P <.001). The tissue attenuation (B = -22.62, P =.001) and diameter of the largest systemic feeding arteries (B = -48.31, P =.011) were significant factors associated with PDD rate. The volume and diameter of systemic feeding arteries of EPS spontaneously decreased within 4 years without treatment. EPSs showing a low tissue attenuation and small diameter of the largest systemic feeding arteries on initial contrast-enhanced CT scans were likely to regress spontaneously. (orig.)

  6. Direct Prediction of Cricondentherm and Cricondenbar Coordinates of Natural Gas Mixtures using Cubic Equation of State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taraf, R.; Behbahani, R.; Moshfeghian, Mahmood

    2008-12-01

    A numerical algorithm is presented for direct calculation of the cricondenbar and cricondentherm coordinates of natural gas mixtures of known composition based on the Michelsen method. In the course of determination of these coordinates, the equilibrium mole fractions at these points are also calculated. In this algorithm, the property of the distance from the free energy surfaces to a tangent plane in equilibrium condition is added to saturation calculation as an additional criterion. An equation of state (EoS) was needed to calculate all required properties. Therefore, the algorithm was tested with Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK), Peng-Robinson (PR), and modified Nasrifar-Moshfeghian (MNM) equations of state. For different EoSs, the impact of the binary interaction coefficient ( k ij) was studied. The impact of initial guesses for temperature and pressure was also studied. The convergence speed and the accuracy of the results of this new algorithm were compared with experimental data and the results obtained from other methods and simulation softwares such as Hysys, Aspen Plus, and EzThermo.

  7. Using Markov Chains to predict the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srikanth, Priyanka

    2015-01-01

    To study the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. This was an observational study of 153 cases with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2013. The state of patient was noted at end of each year and transition matrices were developed to model movement between years. Patients who progressed to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) were treated. Markov Chains and Chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. We modelled the transition of 153 patients from NPDR to blindness on an annual basis. At the end of year 3, we compared results from the Markov model versus actual data. The results from Chi-square test confirmed that there was statistically no significant difference (P=0.70) which provided assurance that the model was robust to estimate mean sojourn times. The key finding was that a patient entering the system in mild NPDR state is expected to stay in that state for 5y followed by 1.07y in moderate NPDR, be in the severe NPDR state for 1.33y before moving into PDR for roughly 8y. It is therefore expected that such a patient entering the model in a state of mild NPDR will enter blindness after 15.29y. Patients stay for long time periods in mild NPDR before transitioning into moderate NPDR. However, they move rapidly from moderate NPDR to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and stay in that state for long periods before transitioning into blindness.

  8. Prediction of major pollutants emission in direct injection dual-fuel diesel and natural-gas engines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pirouzpanah, V.; Kashani, B.O.

    2000-01-01

    The dual-fuel diesel engine is a conventional diesel engine in which much of the energy released, hence power, comes from the combustion of gaseous fuel such as natural gas. The exhaust emission characteristics of the dual-fuel diesel engine needs further refinements, particularly in terms of reduction of Unburnt Hydrocarbons and Carbon Monoxide (CO) emission, because the concentration of these pollutants are higher than that of the baseline diesel engine. Furthermore, the combustion process in a typical dual-fuel diesel engine tends to be complex, showing combination of the problems encountered both in diesel and spark ignition engines. In this work, a computer code has been modified for simulation of dual-fuel diesel engine combustion process. This model simulates dual-fuel diesel engine combustion by using a Multi-Zone Combustion Model for diesel pilot jet combustion and a conventional spark ignition combustion model for modelling of combustion of premixed gas/air charge. Also, in this model, there are four submodels for prediction of major emission pollutants such as: Unburnt Hydrocarbons, No, Co and soot which are emitted from dual-fuel diesel engine. For prediction of formation and oxidation rates of pollutants, relevant s conventional kinetically-controlled mechanisms and mass balances are used. the model has been verified by experimental data obtained from a heavy-duty truck and bus diesel engines. The comparison shows that, there exist good agreements between the experimental and predicted results from the dual-fuel diesel engine

  9. Arrhenius equation modeling for the shelf life prediction of tomato paste containing a natural preservative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, Seid Mahdi; Ganje, Mohammad; Dehnad, Danial; Ghanbari, Vahid; Hajitabar, Javad

    2017-12-01

    The shelf life of tomato paste with microencapsulated olive leaf extract was compared with that of samples containing a commercial preservative by accelerated shelf life testing. Based on previous studies showing that olive leaf extract as a rich source of phenolic compounds can have antimicrobial properties, application of its encapsulated form to improve the storage stability of tomato paste is proposed here. Regarding total soluble solids, the control and the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate had the lowest (Q 10  = 1.63) and highest (Q 10  = 1.88) sensitivity to temperature changes respectively; also, the microencapsulated sample containing 1000 µg g -1 encapsulated olive leaf extract (Q 10  = 1.83) followed the sample containing 1000 µg g -1 sodium benzoate in terms of the highest kinetic rates. In the case of consistency, the lowest and highest activation energies (E a ) corresponded to samples containing 1000 µg g -1 non-encapsulated olive leaf extract and 1000 µg g -1 microencapsulated olive leaf extract respectively. Interestingly, samples containing microencapsulated olive leaf extract could maintain the original quality of the tomato paste very well, while those with non-encapsulated olive leaf extract rated the worst performance (among all specimens) in terms of maintaining their quality indices for a long time period. Overall, the shelf life equation was able to predict the consistency index of all tomato paste samples during long-time storage with high precision. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Using Markov Chains to predict the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka Srikanth

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To study the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This was an observational study of 153 cases with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2013. The state of patient was noted at end of each year and transition matrices were developed to model movement between years. Patients who progressed to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR were treated. Markov Chains and Chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: We modelled the transition of 153 patients from NPDR to blindness on an annual basis. At the end of year 3, we compared results from the Markov model versus actual data. The results from Chi-square test confirmed that there was statistically no significant difference (P=0.70 which provided assurance that the model was robust to estimate mean sojourn times. The key finding was that a patient entering the system in mild NPDR state is expected to stay in that state for 5y followed by 1.07y in moderate NPDR, be in the severe NPDR state for 1.33y before moving into PDR for roughly 8y. It is therefore expected that such a patient entering the model in a state of mild NPDR will enter blindness after 15.29y. CONCLUSION: Patients stay for long time periods in mild NPDR before transitioning into moderate NPDR. However, they move rapidly from moderate NPDR to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR and stay in that state for long periods before transitioning into blindness.

  11. Using Markov chains to predict the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Priyanka; Srikanth

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To study the natural progression of diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.METHODS: This was an observational study of 153 cases with type 2 diabetes from 2010 to 2013. The state of patient was noted at end of each year and transition matrices were developed to model movement between years. Patients who progressed to severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy(NPDR) were treated.Markov Chains and Chi-square test were used for statistical analysis.RESULTS: We modelled the transition of 153 patients from NPDR to blindness on an annual basis. At the end of year 3, we compared results from the Markov model versus actual data. The results from Chi-square test confirmed that there was statistically no significant difference(P =0.70) which provided assurance that the model was robust to estimate mean sojourn times. The key finding was that a patient entering the system in mild NPDR state is expected to stay in that state for 5y followed by 1.07 y in moderate NPDR, be in the severe NPDR state for 1.33 y before moving into PDR for roughly8 y. It is therefore expected that such a patient entering the model in a state of mild NPDR will enter blindness after 15.29 y.CONCLUSION: Patients stay for long time periods in mild NPDR before transitioning into moderate NPDR.However, they move rapidly from moderate NPDR to proliferative diabetic retinopathy(PDR) and stay in that state for long periods before transitioning into blindness.

  12. Dust in HTRs: Its nature and improving prediction of its resuspension

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kissane, M.P., E-mail: martin.kissane@irsn.fr [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Division de la Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, BP 3, 13115 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); Zhang, F. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Division de la Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, BP 3, 13115 Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France); University of Newcastle, School of Mechanical and Systems Engineering, Stephenson Building, Claremont Road, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU (United Kingdom); Reeks, M.W. [University of Newcastle, School of Mechanical and Systems Engineering, Stephenson Building, Claremont Road, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU (United Kingdom)

    2012-10-15

    The HTR primary-system environment comprises nuclear graphites, alloys, dust (primarily carbonaceous) and high-purity helium. The amount of carbonaceous dust produced in a pebble-bed system would be considerably greater than one using a prismatic core with a significant contribution arising from the partially-graphitized binder of the pebbles. The dust is very fine, <10 {mu}m in size. Experience with HTRs shows the primary system to be contaminated by the isotopes {sup 134}Cs, {sup 137}Cs, {sup 90}Sr, {sup 110m}Ag, {sup 131}I, {sup 135}Xe, {sup 85}Kr and tritium at a level representing an occupational-health issue rather than a safety issue. However, strong sorption of caesium, strontium, iodine and tritium onto carbonaceous dust has been observed. Hence, the extent to which deposited dust can be resuspended during a depressurization accident is a safety issue since the dust comprises the main vector for release of radioactivity into the confinement. For fine dust on a surface, the principal force keeping it in place arises from inter-molecular (van der Waals) forces while aerodynamic forces, mainly drag, act to remove it. The reference model chosen here for improving resuspension predictions is the so-called Rock'n'Roll model. This model is based on a statistical approach leading to a resuspension rate for the escape of particles from a potential well via the action of the fluctuating aerodynamic force caused by turbulence. The as-published Rock'n'Roll model assumes that the fluctuations of the aerodynamic force obey a Gaussian distribution. Here, we introduce calculated statistics for the fluctuations taken from a large-eddy simulation of turbulent channel flow (work is in progress on generating these statistics using direct numerical simulation of turbulence). The overall influence of more-realistic (non-Gaussian) forces on the resuspension rate is found to be an increase in short-term resuspension. Given this and the fact that the adhesive

  13. A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbe, Malena; Gredler, Birgit; Seefried, Franz Reinhold; Bapst, Beat; Simianer, Henner

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]). The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20) cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment) were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010), augmented by a weighting factor (w) based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text]) was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

  14. A function accounting for training set size and marker density to model the average accuracy of genomic prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malena Erbe

    Full Text Available Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments ([Formula: see text]. The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5'698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1'332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2-10, 15, 20 cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010, augmented by a weighting factor (w based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is [Formula: see text]. The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets ([Formula: see text] was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20'000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied.

  15. Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Then, Amy Y.; Hoenig, John M; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (tmax), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a tmax-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The tmax-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on tmax and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the tmax-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a tmax-based estimator (M=4.899tmax−0.916">M=4.899t−0.916maxM=4.899tmax−0.916, prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33">M=4.118K0.73L−0.33∞M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error

  16. A new approach for diagnosing type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive individuals based on prediction and natural history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; DiMeglio, Linda A; Beam, Craig A; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Greenbaum, Carla J; Boulware, David; Rafkin, Lisa E; Matheson, Della; Herold, Kevan C; Mahon, Jeffrey; Palmer, Jerry P

    2015-02-01

    We assessed whether type 1 diabetes (T1D) can be diagnosed earlier using a new approach based on prediction and natural history in autoantibody-positive individuals. Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) and TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS) participants were studied. A metabolic index, the T1D Diagnostic Index60 (Index60), was developed from 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) using the log fasting C-peptide, 60-min C-peptide, and 60-min glucose. OGTTs with Index60 ≥2.00 and 2-h glucose <200 mg/dL (Ind60+Only) were compared with Index60 <2.00 and 2-h glucose ≥200 mg/dL (2hglu+Only) OGTTs as criteria for T1D. Individuals were assessed for C-peptide loss from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to diagnosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were significantly higher for Index60 than for the 2-h glucose (P < 0.001 for both DPT-1 and the TNNHS). As a diagnostic criterion, sensitivity was higher for Ind60+Only than for 2hglu+Only (0.44 vs. 0.15 in DPT-1; 0.26 vs. 0.17 in the TNNHS) OGTTs. Specificity was somewhat higher for 2hglu+Only OGTTs in DPT-1 (0.97 vs. 0.91) but equivalent in the TNNHS (0.98 for both). Positive and negative predictive values were higher for Ind60+Only OGTTs in both studies. Postchallenge C-peptide levels declined significantly at each OGTT time point from the first Ind60+Only OGTT to the time of standard diagnosis (range -22 to -34% in DPT-1 and -14 to -27% in the TNNHS). C-peptide and glucose patterns differed markedly between Ind60+Only and 2hglu+Only OGTTs. An approach based on prediction and natural history appears to have utility for diagnosing T1D. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

  17. Statistical generation of training sets for measuring NO3(-), NH4(+) and major ions in natural waters using an ion selective electrode array.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Amy V; Hemond, Harold F

    2016-05-18

    Knowledge of ionic concentrations in natural waters is essential to understand watershed processes. Inorganic nitrogen, in the form of nitrate and ammonium ions, is a key nutrient as well as a participant in redox, acid-base, and photochemical processes of natural waters, leading to spatiotemporal patterns of ion concentrations at scales as small as meters or hours. Current options for measurement in situ are costly, relying primarily on instruments adapted from laboratory methods (e.g., colorimetric, UV absorption); free-standing and inexpensive ISE sensors for NO3(-) and NH4(+) could be attractive alternatives if interferences from other constituents were overcome. Multi-sensor arrays, coupled with appropriate non-linear signal processing, offer promise in this capacity but have not yet successfully achieved signal separation for NO3(-) and NH4(+)in situ at naturally occurring levels in unprocessed water samples. A novel signal processor, underpinned by an appropriate sensor array, is proposed that overcomes previous limitations by explicitly integrating basic chemical constraints (e.g., charge balance). This work further presents a rationalized process for the development of such in situ instrumentation for NO3(-) and NH4(+), including a statistical-modeling strategy for instrument design, training/calibration, and validation. Statistical analysis reveals that historical concentrations of major ionic constituents in natural waters across New England strongly covary and are multi-modal. This informs the design of a statistically appropriate training set, suggesting that the strong covariance of constituents across environmental samples can be exploited through appropriate signal processing mechanisms to further improve estimates of minor constituents. Two artificial neural network architectures, one expanded to incorporate knowledge of basic chemical constraints, were tested to process outputs of a multi-sensor array, trained using datasets of varying degrees of

  18. Integrating Faculty Led Service Learning Training to Quantify Height of Natural Resources from a Spatial Science Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, Daniel R.; Kulhavy, David L.; Busch-Petersen, Kai; Hung, I.-Kuai

    2016-01-01

    Arthur Temple College of Forestry and Agriculture (ATCOFA) faculty members were trained how to integrate service learning activities within senior level classes at Stephen F. Austin State University (SFASU) in Nacogdoches, Texas. The service learning training, taught under the acronym Mentored Undergraduate Scholarship (MUGS), involved meeting…

  19. Fuzzy time series forecasting model with natural partitioning length approach for predicting the unemployment rate under different degree of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nazirah; Mutalib, Siti Musleha Ab; Mohamad, Daud

    2017-08-01

    Fuzzy time series forecasting model has been proposed since 1993 to cater for data in linguistic values. Many improvement and modification have been made to the model such as enhancement on the length of interval and types of fuzzy logical relation. However, most of the improvement models represent the linguistic term in the form of discrete fuzzy sets. In this paper, fuzzy time series model with data in the form of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and natural partitioning length approach is introduced for predicting the unemployment rate. Two types of fuzzy relations are used in this study which are first order and second order fuzzy relation. This proposed model can produce the forecasted values under different degree of confidence.

  20. Predictions for heat transfer characteristics in a natural draft reactor cooling system using a second moment closure turbulence model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishimura, M.; Maekawa, I.

    2004-01-01

    A numerical study is performed on the natural draft reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS). In the cooling system, buoyancy driven heated upward flow could be in the mixed convection regime that is accompanied by heat transfer impairment. Also, the heating wall condition is asymmetric with regard to the channel cross section. These flow regime and thermal boundary conditions may invalidate the use of design correlation. To precisely simulate the flow and thermal fields within the RCCS, the second moment closure turbulence model is applied. Two types of the RCCS channel geometry are selected to make a comparison: an annular duct with fins on the outer surface of the inner circular wall, and a multi-rectangular duct. The prediction shows that the local heat transfer coefficient on the RCCS with finned annular duct is less than 1/6 of that estimated with Dittus-Boelter correlation. Much portion of the natural draft airflow does not contribute cooling at all because mainstream escapes from the narrow gaps between the fins. This result and thus the finned annulus design are unacceptable from the viewpoint for structural integrity of the RCCS wall boundary. The performance of the multi-rectangular duct design is acceptable that the RCCS maximum temperature is less than 400 degree centigrade even when the flow rate is halved from the designed condition. (author)

  1. Predictions of wet natural gases condensation rates via multi-component and multi-phase simulation of supersonic separators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shooshtari, Seyed Heydar Rajaee; Shahsavand, Akbar

    2014-01-01

    Proper correction of water and heavy hydrocarbon dew points of sweet natural gases is essential from various technical and economical standpoints. Supersonic separators (3S) are proved to be capable of achieving these tasks with maximum reliability and minimal expenses. The majority of the previous articles have focused on the flow behavior of pure fluids across a 3S unit. Multicomponent fluid flow inside 3S accompanied with condensation phenomenon will drastically increase the complexity of the simulation process. We tackle this issue by considering a proper combination of fundamental governing equations and phase equilibrium calculations to predict various operating conditions and composition profiles across two multi-component and multi-phase 3S units. Various Iranian sweet gases are used as real case studies to demonstrate the importance of 3S unit practical applications. Simulation results clearly illustrate the effectiveness of 3S units for faithful dehydration of various natural gases, while successfully controlling its dew point, suitable for any practical applications. Conventional HYSYS simulation software is used to validate the simulation results

  2. Statistical model of natural stimuli predicts edge-like pooling of spatial frequency channels in V2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gutmann Michael

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been shown that the classical receptive fields of simple and complex cells in the primary visual cortex emerge from the statistical properties of natural images by forcing the cell responses to be maximally sparse or independent. We investigate how to learn features beyond the primary visual cortex from the statistical properties of modelled complex-cell outputs. In previous work, we showed that a new model, non-negative sparse coding, led to the emergence of features which code for contours of a given spatial frequency band. Results We applied ordinary independent component analysis to modelled outputs of complex cells that span different frequency bands. The analysis led to the emergence of features which pool spatially coherent across-frequency activity in the modelled primary visual cortex. Thus, the statistically optimal way of processing complex-cell outputs abandons separate frequency channels, while preserving and even enhancing orientation tuning and spatial localization. As a technical aside, we found that the non-negativity constraint is not necessary: ordinary independent component analysis produces essentially the same results as our previous work. Conclusion We propose that the pooling that emerges allows the features to code for realistic low-level image features related to step edges. Further, the results prove the viability of statistical modelling of natural images as a framework that produces quantitative predictions of visual processing.

  3. Evolutionary relatedness does not predict competition and co-occurrence in natural or experimental communities of green algae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrou, Markos A.; Cardinale, Bradley J.; Hall, John D.; Delwiche, Charles F.; Fritschie, Keith; Narwani, Anita; Venail, Patrick A.; Bentlage, Bastian; Pankey, M. Sabrina; Oakley, Todd H.

    2015-01-01

    The competition-relatedness hypothesis (CRH) predicts that the strength of competition is the strongest among closely related species and decreases as species become less related. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that common ancestry causes close relatives to share biological traits that lead to greater ecological similarity. Although intuitively appealing, the extent to which phylogeny can predict competition and co-occurrence among species has only recently been rigorously tested, with mixed results. When studies have failed to support the CRH, critics have pointed out at least three limitations: (i) the use of data poor phylogenies that provide inaccurate estimates of species relatedness, (ii) the use of inappropriate statistical models that fail to detect relationships between relatedness and species interactions amidst nonlinearities and heteroskedastic variances, and (iii) overly simplified laboratory conditions that fail to allow eco-evolutionary relationships to emerge. Here, we address these limitations and find they do not explain why evolutionary relatedness fails to predict the strength of species interactions or probabilities of coexistence among freshwater green algae. First, we construct a new data-rich, transcriptome-based phylogeny of common freshwater green algae that are commonly cultured and used for laboratory experiments. Using this new phylogeny, we re-analyse ecological data from three previously published laboratory experiments. After accounting for the possibility of nonlinearities and heterogeneity of variances across levels of relatedness, we find no relationship between phylogenetic distance and ecological traits. In addition, we show that communities of North American green algae are randomly composed with respect to their evolutionary relationships in 99% of 1077 lakes spanning the continental United States. Together, these analyses result in one of the most comprehensive case studies of how evolutionary history influences

  4. Preoperative ultrasound measurements predict the feasibility of gallbladder extraction during transgastric natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery cholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Byron F; Auyang, Edward D; Hungness, Eric S; Desai, Kush R; Chan, Edward S; van Beek, Darren B; Wang, Edward C; Soper, Nathaniel J

    2011-04-01

    Extraction of a gallbladder through an endoscopic overtube during natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery (NOTES) transgastric cholecystectomy avoids potential injury to the esophagus. This study examined the rate of successful gallbladder specimen extraction through an overtube and hypothesized that preoperative ultrasound findings could predict successful specimen passage. Gallbladder specimens from patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy were measured, and an attempt was made to pull the specimens through a commercially available overtube with an inner diameter of 16.7-mm. A radiologist blinded to the outcomes reviewed the available preoperative ultrasound measurements from these patients. Ultrasound dimensions including gallbladder length, width, and depth; wall thickness; common bile duct diameter; and size of the largest gallstone (LGS) were recorded. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine whether ultrasound findings and patient characteristics (age, body mass index [BMI], and sex) could predict the ability of a specimen to pass through the overtube. Of 57 patients, 44 (77%) who had preoperative ultrasounds available for electronic review were included in the final analysis. Gallstones were present in 35 (79%) of these 44 patients. Intraoperative gallbladder perforation occurred in 18 (41%) of the 44 patients, and 16 (36%) of the 44 gallbladders could be extracted through the overtube. Measurement of LGS was possible for 23 patients, and indeterminate gallstone size (IGS) was determined for 12 patients. The rate for passage of perforated versus intact gallbladders was similar (40% vs. 23%; p = 0.054). The LGS (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.33; p = 0.021) and IGS (OR, 22.97; 95% CI, 1.99-265.63; p = 0.025) predicted failed passage on multivariate logistic regression analysis. The passage rate was 80% for LGS smaller than 10 mm or no stones present, 18% for LGS 10 mm or larger, and 8% for

  5. The efficacy of Sustained Natural Apophyseal Glides with and without Isometric Exercise Training in Non-specific Neck Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Abid; Shakil-Ur-Rehman, Syed; Sibtain, Fozia

    2014-07-01

    To determine the efficacy of Sustained Natural Apophyseal Glides (SNAGs) with and without Isometric Exercise Training Program (IETP) in Non-specific Neck Pain (NSNP) Methods: This randomized control trial of one year duration was conducted at out-patient department of Physiotherapy and Rehabilitation, Khyber Teaching Hospital (KTH) Peshawar, Pakistan from July 2012 to June 2013. The sample of 102 patients of NSNP were randomly selected through simple random sampling technique, and placed into two groups. The SNAGs manual physical therapy technique with IETP was applied on 51 patients in group A and SNAGs manual physical therapy techniques was applied alone on 51 patients in group B. The duration of intervention was 6 weeks, at 4 times per week. The Neck Disability Index (NDI) and Visual Analog Scale (VAS) for neck pain were assessment tools used for all patients before and after 6 weeks of physical therapy intervention. All the patients were assessed through NDI and VAS before intervention and at the completion of 6 weeks program. The data of all 102 was analyzed by SPSS-20 and statistical test was applied at 95% level of significance determine the efficacy of both the treatments interventions and compare with each other. The patients in group A, treated with SNAGs and followed by IETP for 6 weeks, demonstrated more improvement in pain and physical activity as assessed by VAS (p=0.013) and NDI (p=0.003), as compared to the patients treated with SNAGS alone, as pain and function assessed by VAS (p=0.047) and NDI (p=0.164). In group A the NDI score improved from 40 to 15 and VAS from 7 to 4, while in group B the NDI score improved from 42 to 30 and VAS from 7 to 4. Patients with non-specific neck pain treated with SNAGs manual physical therapy techniques and followed by IETP was more effective in reduction of pain and enhancement of function, as compared to those patients treated with SNAGs manual physical therapy techniques alone.

  6. Problems in air traffic management. VII., Job training performance of air traffic control specialists - measurement, structure, and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1965-07-01

    A statistical study of training- and job-performance measures of several hundred Air Traffic Control Specialists (ATCS) representing Enroute, Terminal, and Flight Service Station specialties revealed that training-performance measures reflected: : 1....

  7. Trait aspects of auditory mismatch negativity predict response to auditory training in individuals with early illness schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biagianti, Bruno; Roach, Brian J; Fisher, Melissa; Loewy, Rachel; Ford, Judith M; Vinogradov, Sophia; Mathalon, Daniel H

    2017-01-01

    Individuals with schizophrenia have heterogeneous impairments of the auditory processing system that likely mediate differences in the cognitive gains induced by auditory training (AT). Mismatch negativity (MMN) is an event-related potential component reflecting auditory echoic memory, and its amplitude reduction in schizophrenia has been linked to cognitive deficits. Therefore, MMN may predict response to AT and identify individuals with schizophrenia who have the most to gain from AT. Furthermore, to the extent that AT strengthens auditory deviance processing, MMN may also serve as a readout of the underlying changes in the auditory system induced by AT. Fifty-six individuals early in the course of a schizophrenia-spectrum illness (ESZ) were randomly assigned to 40 h of AT or Computer Games (CG). Cognitive assessments and EEG recordings during a multi-deviant MMN paradigm were obtained before and after AT and CG. Changes in these measures were compared between the treatment groups. Baseline and trait-like MMN data were evaluated as predictors of treatment response. MMN data collected with the same paradigm from a sample of Healthy Controls (HC; n = 105) were compared to baseline MMN data from the ESZ group. Compared to HC, ESZ individuals showed significant MMN reductions at baseline ( p = .003). Reduced Double-Deviant MMN was associated with greater general cognitive impairment in ESZ individuals ( p = .020). Neither ESZ intervention group showed significant change in MMN. We found high correlations in all MMN deviant types (rs = .59-.68, all ps < .001) between baseline and post-intervention amplitudes irrespective of treatment group, suggesting trait-like stability of the MMN signal. Greater deficits in trait-like Double-Deviant MMN predicted greater cognitive improvements in the AT group ( p = .02), but not in the CG group. In this sample of ESZ individuals, AT had no effect on auditory deviance processing as assessed by MMN. In ESZ individuals, baseline MMN

  8. The acute effects of strength training on inflammatory markers predicting atherosclerosis: a study on inactive middle-aged men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bizheh N

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available "n Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Background: Cardiovascular diseases, especially atherosclerosis, are the main causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The disease has had an increasing prevalence in Iran in recent years. Homocysteine and C-reactive protein (CRP are two novel cardiovascular risk factors that independently predict risks of atherosclerosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of one session of circuit resistance training on the blood levels of the aforesaid inflammatory markers in inactive middle-aged men."n"nMethods: The participants of this study included twenty-three healthy but inactive middle-aged men who were overweight and were randomly divided into two experimental (n=14 and control (n=9 groups. The activity included doing exercises with the subjects' 35% one-repetition maximum (1-RM intensity at ten different stations. Blood levels of homocysteine and hs-CRP were measured before and after the exercise."n"nResults: Analysis of data using independent samples t-test showed a significant increment in the serum levels of homocysteine and hs-CRP after training in the experimental (P<0.05 versus the control group."n"nConclusion: Elevation of homocysteine levels is due to the increase in protein metabolism

  9. Proposed training program for construction personnel involved in remedial action work at sites contaminated by naturally occurring radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berven, B.A.; Goldsmith, W.A.; Haywood, F.F.; Schiager, K.J.

    1979-01-01

    Many sites used during the early days of the US atomic energy program are contaminated with radionuclides of the primordial decay chains (uranium, thorium, and actinium series). This contamination consists of residues resulting from refining and processing uranium and thorium. Preparation of these sites for release to unrestricted private use will involve the assistance of construction workers, many of whom have limited knowledge of the hazards associated with radioactive materials. Therefore, there is a need to educate these workers in the fundamentals of radioactive material handling to minimize exposures and possible spread of contamination. This training should disseminate relevant information at an appropriate educational level and should instill a cautious, common-sense attitude toward the handling of radioactive materials. The training should emphasize basic information concerning environmental radiation within a context of relative risk. A multi-media format, including colorful visual aids, demonstration, and discussion, should be used to maximize motivation and retention. A detailed, proposed training program design is presented

  10. Nature of changes in body composition indices in students during physical training using a set of athleticism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chernozub A.A.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available During investigations it was established that there are important changes in body composition parameters university students, who in the classroom with the general physical culture introduced by the training facilities with athleticism. The level indicators of body composition and dynamics are fully dependent on the employment structure, volume and intensity of physical exertion their focus. It is established that achieving the optimal performance of body composition may occur even with minimal training work. Planning sessions with physical cultures s light variation of volume and intensity of stress, achieves the required level of adaptation processes.

  11. Predicting dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

    2005-06-01

    This work investigates dynamic range and intensity discrimination for electrical pulse-train stimuli that are modulated by noise using a stochastic auditory nerve model. Based on a hypothesized monotonic relationship between loudness and the number of spikes elicited by a stimulus, theoretical prediction of the uncomfortable level has previously been determined by comparing spike counts to a fixed threshold, Nucl. However, no specific rule for determining Nucl has been suggested. Our work determines the uncomfortable level based on the excitation pattern of the neural response in a normal ear. The number of fibers corresponding to the portion of the basilar membrane driven by a stimulus at an uncomfortable level in a normal ear is related to Nucl at an uncomfortable level of the electrical stimulus. Intensity discrimination limens are predicted using signal detection theory via the probability mass function of the neural response and via experimental simulations. The results show that the uncomfortable level for pulse-train stimuli increases slightly as noise level increases. Combining this with our previous threshold predictions, we hypothesize that the dynamic range for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli should increase with additive noise. However, since our predictions indicate that intensity discrimination under noise degrades, overall intensity coding performance may not improve significantly.

  12. Bayesian models trained with HTS data for predicting β-haematin inhibition and in vitro antimalarial activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicht, Kathryn J; Combrinck, Jill M; Smith, Peter J; Egan, Timothy J

    2015-08-15

    A large quantity of high throughput screening (HTS) data for antimalarial activity has become available in recent years. This includes both phenotypic and target-based activity. Realising the maximum value of these data remains a challenge. In this respect, methods that allow such data to be used for virtual screening maximise efficiency and reduce costs. In this study both in vitro antimalarial activity and inhibitory data for β-haematin formation, largely obtained from publically available sources, has been used to develop Bayesian models for inhibitors of β-haematin formation and in vitro antimalarial activity. These models were used to screen two in silico compound libraries. In the first, the 1510 U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved drugs available on PubChem were ranked from highest to lowest Bayesian score based on a training set of β-haematin inhibiting compounds active against Plasmodium falciparum that did not include any of the clinical antimalarials or close analogues. The six known clinical antimalarials that inhibit β-haematin formation were ranked in the top 2.1% of compounds. Furthermore, the in vitro antimalarial hit-rate for this prioritised set of compounds was found to be 81% in the case of the subset where activity data are available in PubChem. In the second, a library of about 5000 commercially available compounds (Aldrich(CPR)) was virtually screened for ability to inhibit β-haematin formation and then for in vitro antimalarial activity. A selection of 34 compounds was purchased and tested, of which 24 were predicted to be β-haematin inhibitors. The hit rate for inhibition of β-haematin formation was found to be 25% and a third of these were active against P. falciparum, corresponding to enrichments estimated at about 25- and 140-fold relative to random screening, respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Prediction of Ship Resonant Rolling - Related Dangerous Zones with Regard to the Equivalent Metacentric Height Governing Natural Frequency of Roll

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemyslaw Krata

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Potentially dangerous zones corresponding to dynamical stability phenomena, possibly encountered by ships sailing in rough sea, are estimated nowadays with the use of the method recommended by IMO in the guidance coded MSC.1/Circ.1228. In this IMO method the parameter governing the natural period of roll is the initial metacentric height. Some earlier studies revealed that the initial metacentric height which is commonly in use on-board ships for the purpose of performing the MSC.1/Circ.1228-recommended calculations, may significantly vary from the so called equivalent metacentric height obtained for large amplitudes of ship’s roll. In the light of such ascertainment, the paper deals with resultant resonance roll zones locations with regard to the equivalent metacentric height concept remaining appropriate for large amplitudes of roll. The noteworthy transfer of the resonance zones location is disclosed which reflects the distinct configurations of potentially dangerous ship’s course and speed configurations than could be predicted on the basis the initial metacentric height.

  14. Does training novices to criteria and does rapid acquisition of skills on laparoscopic simulators have predictive validity or are we just playing video games?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogle, Nancy J; Widmann, Warren D; Ude, Aku O; Hardy, Mark A; Fowler, Dennis L

    2008-01-01

    To determine whether LapSim training (version 3.0; Surgical Science Ltd, Göteborg, Sweden) to criteria for novice PGY1 surgical residents had predictive validity for improvement in the performance of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. In all, 21 PGY1 residents performed laparoscopic cholecystectomies in pigs after minimal training; their performance was evaluated by skilled laparoscopic surgeons using the validated tool GOALS (global operative assessment of laparoscopic operative skills: depth perception, bimanual dexterity, efficiency, tissue handling, and overall competence). From the group, 10 residents trained to competency on the LapSim Basic Skills Programs (camera navigation, instrument navigation, coordination, grasping, lifting and grasping, cutting, and clip applying). All 21 PGY1 residents again performed laparoscopic cholecystectomies on pigs; their performance was again evaluated by skilled laparoscopic surgeons using GOALS. Additionally, we studied the rate of learning to determine whether the slow or fast learners on the LapSim performed equivalently when performing actual cholecystectomies in pigs. Finally, 6 categorical residents were tracked, and their clinical performance on all of the laparoscopic cholecystectomies in which they were "surgeon, junior" was prospectively evaluated using the GOALS criteria. We found a statistical improvement of depth perception in the operative performance of cholecystectomies in pigs in the group trained on the LapSim. In the other 4 domains, a trend toward improvement was observed. No correlation between being a fast learner and the ultimate skill was demonstrated in the clinical performance of laparoscopic cholecystectomies. We did find that the fast learners on LapSim all were past or current video game players ("gamers"); however, that background did not translate into better clinical performance. Using current criteria, we doubt that the time and effort spent training novice PGY1 Surgical Residents on the basic

  15. A case study on the importance of quality assurance and personnel training in environmental assessment of naturally occurring radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, R.P.; Ijaz, T.; Rutz, E.

    1995-01-01

    An independent review of the remedial investigation activities at a Superfund site was performed at the request of the site owners. The site in question was being labeled as containing radioactive contamination by the state environmental protection agency based on the results of the remedial investigation sampling program, which reported above background concentrations of potassium-40 at the site. This determination would have resulted in the entire site being considered as a mixed waste hazard, with extreme consequences for the cleanup actions. The independent review of the site sampling, measurement techniques, data analysis, and report preparation discovered problems with each of these activities. These problems included failing to perform subcontractor quality assurance oversight, as well as internal quality assurance failures related to verification of critical data. Additionally, the staff at both the state environmental protection agency and the remedial contractor were poorly trained in the field of radioactive assessments and statistical data analysis. These problems delayed the site remedial actions on the most important contaminants, including xylene, arsenic, and various metals. The cost of the site remedial investigation was significantly increased, as over $300,000 were spent just on assessing and litigating the potassium-40 health hazard issue. The independent review concluded that the problems were caused by inadequate quality assurance programs compounded by a lack of proper training of the personnel performing the work. Either a good quality assurance program at the remediation contractor or use of effectively trained personnel analyzing the data would likely have avoided the problems

  16. Testing Predictions of a Landscape Evolution Model Using the Dragon’s Back Pressure Ridge as a Natural Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perignon, M. C.; Tucker, G. E.; Hilley, G. E.; Arrowsmith, R.

    2009-12-01

    Landscape evolution models use mass transport rules to simulate the temporal development of topography over timescales too long for humans to observe. As such, these models are difficult to test using the decadal time-scale observations of topographic change that can be directly measured. In contrast, natural systems in which driving forces, boundary conditions, and timing of landscape evolution over millennial time-scales can be well constrained may be used to test the ability of mathematical models to reproduce various attributes of the observed topography. The Dragon’s Back pressure ridge, a 4km x 0.5 km x 100 m high area of elevated topography elongate parallel to the south-central San Andreas fault (SAF) in California, serves as a natural laboratory for studying how the timing and spatial distribution of uplift affects patterns of erosion and topography. Geologic mapping and geophysical studies show that, at this location, the Pacific plate is forced over a relatively stationary shallow discontinuity in the SAF, resulting in local uplift. Continued right-lateral motion along the fault results in the movement of material though the uplift zone at the SAF slip rate of 35 mm/yr. This allows for the substitution of space for time when observing topographic change, and can be used to constrain the tectonic conditions to which the surface processes responded and developed the resulting landscape. We used the CHILD model of landscape evolution to recreate the Dragon’s Back pressure ridge system in order to test the reliability of the model predictions and determine the necessary and sufficient conditions to explain the observed topography. To do this, we first ran a Monte Carlo simulation in which we varied the model inputs within a range of plausible values. We then compared the model results with LiDAR topography from the Dragon’s Back pressure ridge to determine which combinations of input parameters best reproduced the observed topography and how well it

  17. Peripheral ovine progressive pneumonia provirus levels correlate with and predict histological tissue lesion severity in naturally infected sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann-Hoesing, Lynn M; Noh, Susan M; White, Stephen N; Snekvik, Kevin R; Truscott, Thomas; Knowles, Donald P

    2009-04-01

    Studies were undertaken to determine whether anti-ovine progressive pneumonia virus (OPPV) antibody responses in serum or OPP provirus levels in peripheral blood associate with the degree of histologically measured tissue lesions in naturally OPPV-infected sheep. Sections of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded, and hematoxylin- and eosin-stained lung, mammary gland, carpal synovial membrane, and brain tissues from 11 OPPV-infected ewes (mean age of 8.6 years) and 5 OPPV-uninfected ewes (mean age of 6 years) were evaluated for lesion severity. Ovine progressive pneumonia (OPP) provirus levels and anti-OPPV antibody titers in peripheral blood and serum samples, respectively, were measured upon euthanasia and 3 years prior to euthanasia. Both mean peripheral OPP provirus levels and mean serum anti-surface envelope glycoprotein (anti-SU) antibody titers at the time of euthanasia were significantly higher in ewes with moderate to severe histological lesions than in ewes with no to mild histological lesions. However, although mean peripheral blood OPP provirus levels at euthanasia and 3 years prior to euthanasia significantly correlated with the highest histological lesion score for any affected tissue (two-tailed P values, 0.03 and 0.02), mean serum anti-SU antibody titers, anti-capsid antibody titers, and anti-transmembrane 90 antibody titers at euthanasia did not show a significant correlation with the highest histological lesion score for any tissue (two-tailed P values, 0.32, 0.97, and 0.18, respectively). These data are the first to show that OPP provirus levels predict and correlate with the extent of OPPV-related histological lesions in various OPPV-affected tissues. These findings suggest that peripheral OPP provirus levels quantitatively contribute more to the development of histological lesions than the systemic anti-SU antibody host immune response.

  18. Toward a Predictive Framework for Convergent Evolution: Integrating Natural History, Genetic Mechanisms, and Consequences for the Diversity of Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A

    2017-08-01

    A charm of biology as a scientific discipline is the diversity of life. Although this diversity can make laws of biology challenging to discover, several repeated patterns and general principles govern evolutionary diversification. Convergent evolution, the independent evolution of similar phenotypes, has been at the heart of one approach to understand generality in the evolutionary process. Yet understanding when and why organismal traits and strategies repeatedly evolve has been a central challenge. These issues were the focus of the American Society of Naturalists Vice Presidential Symposium in 2016 and are the subject of this collection of articles. Although naturalists have long made inferences about convergent evolution and its importance, there has been confusion in the interpretation of the pattern of convergence. Does convergence primarily indicate adaptation or constraint? How often should convergence be expected? Are there general principles that would allow us to predict where and when and by what mechanisms convergent evolution should occur? What role does natural history play in advancing our understanding of general evolutionary principles? In this introductory article, I address these questions, review several generalizations about convergent evolution that have emerged over the past 15 years, and present a framework for advancing the study and interpretation of convergence. Perhaps the most important emerging conclusion is that the genetic mechanisms of convergent evolution are phylogenetically conserved; that is, more closely related species tend to share the same genetic basis of traits, even when independently evolved. Finally, I highlight how the articles in this special issue further develop concepts, methodologies, and case studies at the frontier of our understanding of the causes and consequences of convergent evolution.

  19. The predictable nature of the Paleozoic sedimentary sequence beneath the Bruce nuclear site in Southern Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parmenter, Andrew; Jensen, Mark; Crowe, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Document available in extended abstract form only. A key aspect of a Deep Geologic Repository (DGR) safety case is the ability to develop and communicate an understanding of the geologic stability and resilience to change at time frames relevant to demonstrating repository performance. As part of an on-going Environmental Assessment, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) recently completed site-specific investigations within an 850 m thick Paleozoic sedimentary sequence beneath the Bruce nuclear site for the proposed development of a DGR for Low and Intermediate Level Waste (L and ILW). As envisioned, the shaft-accessed DGR would be excavated at a nominal depth of 680 m within the low permeability Ordovician argillaceous limestone of the Cobourg Formation, which is overlain by more than 200 m of low permeability Ordovician shale. The geo-scientific investigations revealed a relatively undeformed and laterally continuous architecture within the sedimentary sequence at the repository scale (1.5 km 2 ) and beyond. This paper explores the predictable nature of the sedimentary sequence that has contributed to increasing confidence in an understanding of the spatial distribution of groundwater system properties, deep groundwater system evolution and natural barrier performance. Multi-disciplinary geo-scientific investigations of the Bruce nuclear site were completed in 3 phases between 2006 and 2010. The sub-surface investigations included a deep drilling, coring and in-situ testing program and, the completion of a 19.7 km (9 lines) 2-D seismic reflection survey. The drilling program involved 6 (150 mm dia.) deep boreholes (4-vertical; 2 inclined) that were extended through the sedimentary sequence from 4 drill sites, arranged around the 0.3 km 2 footprint of the proposed repository. The more than 3.8 km of rock core (77 mm dia.) retrieved have provided, in part, a strong basis to understand bedrock lithology and mineralogy, facies assemblages, structure, and oil and gas

  20. Gene Expression Profiling to Predict Clinical Outcome of Breast Cancer: reproducing, analyzing and extending the Nature publication by vhVeer et al

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li R.; Visser, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    Chemotherapy and hormonal therapy as adjuvant systemic therapies to inhibit breast cancer recurrence are not necessary for each patient. In Veer's paper "Gene expression profiling predicts clinical outcome of breast cancer" (Nature 2002, PMID: 11823860), they introduced a method based on DNA

  1. Predicting the Proficiency of Arabic and Persian Linguists Trained at the Defense Language Institute Foreign Language Center

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    DeRamus, Nicole

    1999-01-01

    The mission of the Defense Language Institute Foreign Language Center (DLIFLC) is to train, sustain, and evaluate foreign language skills of linguists under the guidelines of the Defense Foreign Language Program (DFLP...

  2. Constraints to connecting children with nature--Survey of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service employees sponsored by the National Conservation Training Center, Division of Education Outreach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratz, Joan M.; Schuster, Rudy M.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) names "connecting people with nature" as one of its top six priorities in the online Service Employee Pocket Guide. The National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) took the initiative to identify issues that impede greater progress in addressing constraints to connecting children with nature. The Division of Education Outreach at NCTC formed a working relation with the Policy Analysis and Science Assistance branch of the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a study on these issues. To meet the objectives of the study, a survey of a sample of FWS employees was conducted. This report includes the description of how the survey was developed and administered, how the data were analyzed, and a discussion of the survey results. The survey was developed based on published literature and incorporated input from two working groups of professionals focused on the issue of connecting children with nature. Although the objective as stated by the FWS is to connect people with nature, the survey primarily focused on connecting children, rather than all people, with nature. The four primary concepts included on the survey were interpretation of how the FWS defined "connection" as part of its mission, perceived success with outreach, constraints to connecting children with nature, and importance of connecting children with nature. The survey was conducted online using KeySurvey© software. The survey was sent to 604 FWS employees. Responses were received from 320 employees. The respondents represented diversity in regions, tenure, wage/grade level, job series, supervisory status, and involvement with education and outreach activities. The key findings of the survey are as follows: * FWS employees believe they as individuals and the agency are successful now and will be more successful in the future in connecting children with nature. * FWS employees believe that there are many outcomes that are relevant to the FWS objective to connect people

  3. Effects of 12-Week Endurance Training at Natural Low Altitude on the Blood Redox Homeostasis of Professional Adolescent Athletes: A Quasi-Experimental Field Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas K. Tong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This field study investigated the influences of exposure to natural low altitude on endurance training-induced alterations of redox homeostasis in professional adolescent runners undergoing 12-week off-season conditioning program at an altitude of 1700 m (Alt, by comparison with that of their counterparts completing the program at sea-level (SL. For age-, gender-, and Tanner-stage-matched comparison, 26 runners (n=13 in each group were selected and studied. Following the conditioning program, unaltered serum levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS, total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC, and superoxide dismutase accompanied with an increase in oxidized glutathione (GSSG and decreases of xanthine oxidase, reduced glutathione (GSH, and GSH/GSSG ratio were observed in both Alt and SL groups. Serum glutathione peroxidase and catalase did not change in SL, whereas these enzymes, respectively, decreased and increased in Alt. Uric acid (UA decreased in SL and increased in Alt. Moreover, the decreases in GSH and GSH/GSSG ratio in Alt were relatively lower compared to those in SL. Further, significant interindividual correlations were found between changes in catalase and TBARS, as well as between UA and T-AOC. These findings suggest that long-term training at natural low altitude is unlikely to cause retained oxidative stress in professional adolescent runners.

  4. Effects of 12-Week Endurance Training at Natural Low Altitude on the Blood Redox Homeostasis of Professional Adolescent Athletes: A Quasi-Experimental Field Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Tomas K; Kong, Zhaowei; Lin, Hua; He, Yeheng; Lippi, Giuseppe; Shi, Qingde; Zhang, Haifeng; Nie, Jinlei

    2016-01-01

    This field study investigated the influences of exposure to natural low altitude on endurance training-induced alterations of redox homeostasis in professional adolescent runners undergoing 12-week off-season conditioning program at an altitude of 1700 m (Alt), by comparison with that of their counterparts completing the program at sea-level (SL). For age-, gender-, and Tanner-stage-matched comparison, 26 runners (n = 13 in each group) were selected and studied. Following the conditioning program, unaltered serum levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC), and superoxide dismutase accompanied with an increase in oxidized glutathione (GSSG) and decreases of xanthine oxidase, reduced glutathione (GSH), and GSH/GSSG ratio were observed in both Alt and SL groups. Serum glutathione peroxidase and catalase did not change in SL, whereas these enzymes, respectively, decreased and increased in Alt. Uric acid (UA) decreased in SL and increased in Alt. Moreover, the decreases in GSH and GSH/GSSG ratio in Alt were relatively lower compared to those in SL. Further, significant interindividual correlations were found between changes in catalase and TBARS, as well as between UA and T-AOC. These findings suggest that long-term training at natural low altitude is unlikely to cause retained oxidative stress in professional adolescent runners.

  5. The Employment of spatial autoregressive models in predicting demand for natural gas; O Emprego de modelos auto-regressivos espaciais na previsao de demanda para gas natural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Jorge Henrique de [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Silva, Alexandre Pinto Alves da [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Eletrica

    2010-07-01

    Develop the natural gas network is critical success factor for the distribution company. It is a decision that employs the demand given location 'x' and a future time 't' so that the net allows the best conditions for the return of the capital. In this segment, typical network industry, the spatial infra-structure vision associated to the market allows better evaluation of the business because to mitigate costs and risks. In fact, economic models little developed in order to assess the question of the location, due to its little employment by economists. The objective of this article is to analyze the application of spatial perspective in natural gas demand forecasting and to identify the models that can be employed observing issues of dependency and spatial heterogeneity; as well as the capacity of mapping of variables associated with the problem. (author)

  6. Effect of Trait Heritability, Training Population Size and Marker Density on Genomic Prediction Accuracy Estimation in 22 bi-parental Tropical Maize Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ao; Wang, Hongwu; Beyene, Yoseph; Semagn, Kassa; Liu, Yubo; Cao, Shiliang; Cui, Zhenhai; Ruan, Yanye; Burgueño, Juan; San Vicente, Felix; Olsen, Michael; Prasanna, Boddupalli M; Crossa, José; Yu, Haiqiu; Zhang, Xuecai

    2017-01-01

    Genomic selection is being used increasingly in plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain per unit time. One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and select the best un-phenotyped lines in bi-parental populations based on genomic estimated breeding values. In the present study, 22 bi-parental tropical maize populations genotyped with low density SNPs were used to evaluate the genomic prediction accuracy ( r MG ) of the six trait-environment combinations under various levels of training population size (TPS) and marker density (MD), and assess the effect of trait heritability ( h 2 ), TPS and MD on r MG estimation. Our results showed that: (1) moderate r MG values were obtained for different trait-environment combinations, when 50% of the total genotypes was used as training population and ~200 SNPs were used for prediction; (2) r MG increased with an increase in h 2 , TPS and MD, both correlation and variance analyses showed that h 2 is the most important factor and MD is the least important factor on r MG estimation for most of the trait-environment combinations; (3) predictions between pairwise half-sib populations showed that the r MG values for all the six trait-environment combinations were centered around zero, 49% predictions had r MG values above zero; (4) the trend observed in r MG differed with the trend observed in r MG / h , and h is the square root of heritability of the predicted trait, it indicated that both r MG and r MG / h values should be presented in GS study to show the accuracy of genomic selection and the relative accuracy of genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, respectively. This study provides useful information to maize breeders to design genomic selection workflow in their breeding programs.

  7. Effect of Trait Heritability, Training Population Size and Marker Density on Genomic Prediction Accuracy Estimation in 22 bi-parental Tropical Maize Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ao Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Genomic selection is being used increasingly in plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain per unit time. One of the most important applications of genomic selection in maize breeding is to predict and select the best un-phenotyped lines in bi-parental populations based on genomic estimated breeding values. In the present study, 22 bi-parental tropical maize populations genotyped with low density SNPs were used to evaluate the genomic prediction accuracy (rMG of the six trait-environment combinations under various levels of training population size (TPS and marker density (MD, and assess the effect of trait heritability (h2, TPS and MD on rMG estimation. Our results showed that: (1 moderate rMG values were obtained for different trait-environment combinations, when 50% of the total genotypes was used as training population and ~200 SNPs were used for prediction; (2 rMG increased with an increase in h2, TPS and MD, both correlation and variance analyses showed that h2 is the most important factor and MD is the least important factor on rMG estimation for most of the trait-environment combinations; (3 predictions between pairwise half-sib populations showed that the rMG values for all the six trait-environment combinations were centered around zero, 49% predictions had rMG values above zero; (4 the trend observed in rMG differed with the trend observed in rMG/h, and h is the square root of heritability of the predicted trait, it indicated that both rMG and rMG/h values should be presented in GS study to show the accuracy of genomic selection and the relative accuracy of genomic selection compared with phenotypic selection, respectively. This study provides useful information to maize breeders to design genomic selection workflow in their breeding programs.

  8. Effects of Training and Feedback on Accuracy of Predicting Rectosigmoid Neoplastic Lesions and Selection of Surveillance Intervals by Endoscopists Performing Optical Diagnosis of Diminutive Polyps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vleugels, Jasper L A; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Hazewinkel, Yark; Wanders, Linda K; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

    2018-05-01

    Real-time differentiation of diminutive polyps (1-5 mm) during endoscopy could replace histopathology analysis. According to guidelines, implementation of optical diagnosis into routine practice would require it to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions with a negative predictive value (NPV) of more than 90%, using histologic findings as a reference, and agreement with histology-based surveillance intervals for more than 90% of cases. We performed a prospective study with 39 endoscopists accredited to perform colonoscopies on participants with positive results from fecal immunochemical tests in the Bowel Cancer Screening Program at 13 centers in the Netherlands. Endoscopists were trained in optical diagnosis using a validated module (Workgroup serrAted polypS and Polyposis). After meeting predefined performance thresholds in the training program, the endoscopists started a 1-year program (continuation phase) in which they performed narrow band imaging analyses during colonoscopies of participants in the screening program and predicted histological findings with confidence levels. The endoscopists were randomly assigned to groups that received feedback or no feedback on the accuracy of their predictions. Primary outcome measures were endoscopists' abilities to identify rectosigmoid neoplastic lesions (using histology as a reference) with NPVs of 90% or more, and selecting surveillance intervals that agreed with those determined by histology for at least 90% of cases. Of 39 endoscopists initially trained, 27 (69%) completed the training program. During the continuation phase, these 27 endoscopists performed 3144 colonoscopies in which 4504 diminutive polyps were removed. The endoscopists identified neoplastic lesions with a pooled NPV of 90.8% (95% confidence interval 88.6-92.6); their proposed surveillance intervals agreed with those determined by histologic analysis for 95.4% of cases (95% confidence interval 94.0-96.6). Findings did not differ between the group

  9. Medical students' situational motivation to participate in simulation based team training is predicted by attitudes to patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escher, Cecilia; Creutzfeldt, Johan; Meurling, Lisbet; Hedman, Leif; Kjellin, Ann; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2017-02-10

    Patient safety education, as well as the safety climate at clinical rotations, has an impact on students' attitudes. We explored medical students' self-reported motivation to participate in simulation-based teamwork training (SBTT), with the hypothesis that high scores in patient safety attitudes would promote motivation to SBTT and that intrinsic motivation would increase after training. In a prospective cohort study we explored Swedish medical students' attitudes to patient safety, their motivation to participate in SBTT and how motivation was affected by the training. The setting was an integrated SBTT course during the surgical semester that focused on non-technical skills and safe treatment of surgical emergencies. Data was collected using the Situational Motivation Scale (SIMS) and the Attitudes to Patient Safety Questionnaire (APSQ). We found a positive correlation between students' individual patient safety attitudes and self-reported motivation (identified regulation) to participate in SBTT. We also found that intrinsic motivation increased after training. Female students in our study scored higher than males regarding some of the APSQ sub-scores and the entire group scored higher or on par with comparable international samples. In order to enable safe practice and professionalism in healthcare, students' engagement in patient safety education is important. Our finding that students' patient safety attitudes show a positive correlation to motivation and that intrinsic motivation increases after training underpins patient safety climate and integrated teaching of patient safety issues at medical schools in order to help students develop the knowledge, skills and attitudes required for safe practice.

  10. Predicted and observed growth of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood challenge tests and in naturally contaminated cold smoked salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Paw; Jørgensen, Lasse Vigel

    1998-01-01

    with various types of seafoods. Storage trials clearly showed the growth of L. monocytogenes in naturally contaminated cold-smoked salmon to be markedly slower than growth in inoculated challenge tests. Consequently, all four models substantially overestimated growth in the naturally contaminated products...

  11. The Effect of Natural or Simulated Altitude Training on High-Intensity Intermittent Running Performance in Team-Sport Athletes: A Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Michael J; Lizamore, Catherine A; Hopkins, Will G

    2018-02-01

    While adaptation to hypoxia at natural or simulated altitude has long been used with endurance athletes, it has only recently gained popularity for team-sport athletes. To analyse the effect of hypoxic interventions on high-intensity intermittent running performance in team-sport athletes. A systematic literature search of five journal databases was performed. Percent change in performance (distance covered) in the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery test (level 1 and level 2 were used without differentiation) in hypoxic (natural or simulated altitude) and control (sea level or normoxic placebo) groups was meta-analyzed with a mixed model. The modifying effects of study characteristics (type and dose of hypoxic exposure, training duration, post-altitude duration) were estimated with fixed effects, random effects allowed for repeated measurement within studies and residual real differences between studies, and the standard-error weighting factors were derived or imputed via standard deviations of change scores. Effects and their uncertainty were assessed with magnitude-based inference, with a smallest important improvement of 4% estimated via between-athlete standard deviations of performance at baseline. Ten studies qualified for inclusion, but two were excluded owing to small sample size and risk of publication bias. Hypoxic interventions occurred over a period of 7-28 days, and the range of total hypoxic exposure (in effective altitude-hours) was 4.5-33 km h in the intermittent-hypoxia studies and 180-710 km h in the live-high studies. There were 11 control and 15 experimental study-estimates in the final meta-analysis. Training effects were moderate and very likely beneficial in the control groups at 1 week (20 ± 14%, percent estimate, ± 90% confidence limits) and 4-week post-intervention (25 ± 23%). The intermittent and live-high hypoxic groups experienced additional likely beneficial gains at 1 week (13 ± 16%; 13 ± 15%) and 4-week post

  12. The Development of Mathematical Prediction Model to Predict Resilient Modulus for Natural Soil Stabilized by Pofa-Opc Additive for the Use in Unpaved Road Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamil, Y. M. R.; Bakar, I. H.

    2016-07-01

    Resilient Modulus (Mr) is considered one of the most important parameters in the design of road structure. This paper describes the development of the mathematical model to predict resilient modulus of organic soil stabilized by the mix of Palm Oil Fuel Ash - Ordinary Portland Cement (POFA-OPC) soil stabilization additives. It aims to optimize the use of the use of POFA in soil stabilization. The optimization models enable to eliminate the arbitrary selection and its associated disadvantages in determination of the optimum additive proportion. The model was developed based on Scheffe regression theory. The mix proportions of the samples in the experiment were adopted from similar studies reported in the literature Twenty five samples were designed, prepared and then characterized for each mix proportion based on the MR in 28 days curing. The results are used to develop the mathematical prediction model. The model was statistically analyzed and verified for its adequacy and validity using F-test.

  13. Broadly Trained but Narrowly Used? Factors That Predict the Performance of Environmental versus Individual Tasks by School Social Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupper, David R.; Rocha, Cynthia; Jackson, Rebecca F.; Lodato, Gayle A.

    2014-01-01

    National and state surveys over the past several decades have concluded that school social workers, despite an awareness of and training in macro level practice strategies, are highly individualistic in their practice focus. Although clinical skills are necessary, they are insufficient for effective school social work practice in the 21st century.…

  14. Modelling environmental and cognitive factors to predict performance in a stressful training scenario on a naval ship simulator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohen, I.; Brinkman, W.P.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Professionals working in risky or emergency situations have to make very accurate decisions, while the quality of the decisions might be affected by the stress that these situations bring about. Integrating task feedback and biofeedback into computer-based training environments could improve

  15. The social nature of chronic noncommunicable diseases and how to tackle them through communication technology, training, and outreach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Apfel, Franklin; Sanchez, Jose Luis Alfonso; Galea, Gauden; Jakab, Zsuzsanna

    2011-08-01

    As world leaders prepare for the United Nations High Level Meeting on Noncommunicable Diseases, to take place in September 2011, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and economic and business fora have created new alliances and initiatives to accelerate research, advocacy, and political commitment. This article argues that the time is propitious to reflect on the social nature of the most common behavioral noncommunicable disease determinants, including tobacco and alcohol use, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet. Evidence is presented related to the fact that these diseases are profoundly rooted in social and community ties and points to the need for a modern communication strategy to serve as a linchpin of any successful action to address these public health threats. Several proposals, aimed at promoting health literacy, strengthening health workforce skills, capturing the power of new media and technologies, and targeting vulnerable groups, are discussed.

  16. Statistical analysis in the design of nuclear fuel cells and training of a neural network to predict safety parameters for reactors BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauregui Ch, V.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the obtained results for a statistical analysis are shown, with the purpose of studying the performance of the fuel lattice, taking into account the frequency of the pins that were used. For this objective, different statistical distributions were used; one approximately to normal, another type X 2 but in an inverse form and a random distribution. Also, the prediction of some parameters of the nuclear reactor in a fuel reload was made through a neuronal network, which was trained. The statistical analysis was made using the parameters of the fuel lattice, which was generated through three heuristic techniques: Ant Colony Optimization System, Neuronal Networks and a hybrid among Scatter Search and Path Re linking. The behavior of the local power peak factor was revised in the fuel lattice with the use of different frequencies of enrichment uranium pines, using the three techniques mentioned before, in the same way the infinite multiplication factor of neutrons was analyzed (k..), to determine within what range this factor in the reactor is. Taking into account all the information, which was obtained through the statistical analysis, a neuronal network was trained; that will help to predict the behavior of some parameters of the nuclear reactor, considering a fixed fuel reload with their respective control rods pattern. In the same way, the quality of the training was evaluated using different fuel lattices. The neuronal network learned to predict the next parameters: Shutdown Margin (SDM), the pin burn peaks for two different fuel batches, Thermal Limits and the Effective Neutron Multiplication Factor (k eff ). The results show that the fuel lattices in which the frequency, which the inverted form of the X 2 distribution, was used revealed the best values of local power peak factor. Additionally it is shown that the performance of a fuel lattice could be enhanced controlling the frequency of the uranium enrichment rods and the variety of the gadolinium

  17. Influence of monitoring data selection for optimization of a steady state multimedia model on the magnitude and nature of the model prediction bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hee Seok; Lee, Dong Soo

    2017-11-01

    SimpleBox is an important multimedia model used to estimate the predicted environmental concentration for screening-level exposure assessment. The main objectives were (i) to quantitatively assess how the magnitude and nature of prediction bias of SimpleBox vary with the selection of observed concentration data set for optimization and (ii) to present the prediction performance of the optimized SimpleBox. The optimization was conducted using a total of 9604 observed multimedia data for 42 chemicals of four groups (i.e., polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDDs/Fs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), phthalates, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)). The model performance was assessed based on the magnitude and skewness of prediction bias. Monitoring data selection in terms of number of data and kind of chemicals plays a significant role in optimization of the model. The coverage of the physicochemical properties was found to be very important to reduce the prediction bias. This suggests that selection of observed data should be made such that the physicochemical property (such as vapor pressure, octanol-water partition coefficient, octanol-air partition coefficient, and Henry's law constant) range of the selected chemical groups be as wide as possible. With optimization, about 55%, 90%, and 98% of the total number of the observed concentration ratios were predicted within factors of three, 10, and 30, respectively, with negligible skewness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A natureza argumentativa dos processos inferenciais preditivos na compreensão textual The argumentative nature of the predictive inferencial processes of the textual comprehension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tícia Cassiany Ferro Cavalcante

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available No presente estudo, propõe-se que a inferência de predição é um processo cognitivo/discursivo de natureza eminentemente argumentativa. Partindo desta proposta teórica, o estudo empírico relatado teve como objetivo investigar, de forma processual, a produção de inferências preditivas por parte de sete estudantes universitários no curso de uma leitura individualmente realizada (compreensão online. A perspectiva metodológica adotada foi a do estudo de casos em série, em cada um dos quais o participante foi solicitado a responder, em voz audível, a questões formuladas à medida que lia uma crônica. A análise de dados realizada, de natureza notadamente qualitativa e processual, evidencia a natureza essencialmente argumentativa das inferências preditivas produzidas.The present study argues that a prediction inference is a cognitive/discursive process fundamentally of argumentative nature. From this theoretical premise, this empirical study investigated, in a procedural manner, the production of predictive inferences by seven university students, using individual readings (online comprehension. The methodology used was that of case studies in series, in each of which the participant was asked to answer, aloud, questions formulated while he/she was reading a story. The analysis of the data, notably of qualitative and procedural nature, makes evident the essentially argumentative nature of the predictive inferences produced.

  19. Natural speech algorithm applied to baseline interview data can predict which patients will respond to psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Facundo; Sigman, Mariano; Fernández Slezak, Diego; Ashton, Philip; Fitzgerald, Lily; Stroud, Jack; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin L

    2018-04-01

    Natural speech analytics has seen some improvements over recent years, and this has opened a window for objective and quantitative diagnosis in psychiatry. Here, we used a machine learning algorithm applied to natural speech to ask whether language properties measured before psilocybin for treatment-resistant can predict for which patients it will be effective and for which it will not. A baseline autobiographical memory interview was conducted and transcribed. Patients with treatment-resistant depression received 2 doses of psilocybin, 10 mg and 25 mg, 7 days apart. Psychological support was provided before, during and after all dosing sessions. Quantitative speech measures were applied to the interview data from 17 patients and 18 untreated age-matched healthy control subjects. A machine learning algorithm was used to classify between controls and patients and predict treatment response. Speech analytics and machine learning successfully differentiated depressed patients from healthy controls and identified treatment responders from non-responders with a significant level of 85% of accuracy (75% precision). Automatic natural language analysis was used to predict effective response to treatment with psilocybin, suggesting that these tools offer a highly cost-effective facility for screening individuals for treatment suitability and sensitivity. The sample size was small and replication is required to strengthen inferences on these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Effect of boundary conditions on the strength and deformability of replicas of natural fractures in welded tuff: Comparison between predicted and observed shear behavior using a graphical method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wibowo, J.; Amadei, B.; Sture, S.; Robertson, A.B.

    1993-09-01

    Four series of cyclic direct-shear experiments were conducted on several replicas of three natural fractures and a laboratory-developed tensile fracture of welded tuff from Yucca Mountain to test the graphical load-displacement analysis method proposed by Saeb (1989) and Amadei and Saeb (1990). Based on the results of shear tests conducted on several joint replicas under different levels of constant normal load ranging between 0.6 and 25.6 kips (2.7 and 113.9 kN), the shear behavior of joint replicas under constant normal stiffness ranging between 14.8 and 187.5 kips/in. (25.9 and 328.1 kN/cm) was predicted by using the graphical method. The predictions were compared to the results of actual shear tests conducted for the same range of constant normal stiffness. In general, a good agreement was found between the predicted and the observed shear behavior

  1. Predicting performance using background characteristics of international medical graduates in an inner-city university-affiliated Internal Medicine residency training program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhuetie Jane

    2009-07-01

    years and USMLE step I & step II clinical skills scores were 85 (IQR: 80–88 & 82 (IQR: 79–87 respectively. The median aggregate CBE scores during training were: PG1 5.8 (IQR: 5.6–6.3; PG2 6.3 (IQR 6–6.8 & PG3 6.7 (IQR: 6.7 – 7.1. 25% of our residents scored consistently above US national median ITE scores in all 3 years of training and 16% pursued a fellowship. Younger residents had higher aggregate annual CBE score than the program median (p Conclusion Background IMG features namely, age and USMLE scores predict performance evaluation and in-training examination scores during residency training. In addition enhanced research activities during residency training could facilitate fellowship goals among interested IMGs.

  2. A Synthetic Ecology Perspective: How Well Does Behavior of Model Organisms in the Laboratory Predict Microbial Activities in Natural Habitats?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zheng; Krause, Sascha M B; Beck, David A C; Chistoserdova, Ludmila

    2016-01-01

    In this perspective article, we question how well model organisms, the ones that are easy to cultivate in the laboratory and that show robust growth and biomass accumulation, reflect the dynamics and interactions of microbial communities observed in nature. Today's -omics toolbox allows assessing the genomic potential of microbes in natural environments in a high-throughput fashion and at a strain-level resolution. However, understanding of the details of microbial activities and of the mechanistic bases of community function still requires experimental validation in simplified and fully controlled systems such as synthetic communities. We have studied methane utilization in Lake Washington sediment for a few decades and have identified a number of species genetically equipped for this activity. We have also identified co-occurring satellite species that appear to form functional communities together with the methanotrophs. Here, we compare experimental findings from manipulation of natural communities involved in metabolism of methane in this niche with findings from manipulation of synthetic communities assembled in the laboratory of species originating from the same study site, from very simple (two-species) to rather complex (50-species) synthetic communities. We observe some common trends in community dynamics between the two types of communities, toward representation of specific functional guilds. However, we also identify strong discrepancies between the dominant methane oxidizers in synthetic communities compared to natural communities, under similar incubation conditions. These findings highlight the challenges that exist in using the synthetic community approach to modeling dynamics and species interactions in natural communities.

  3. Higher Precision of Heart Rate Compared with VO2 to Predict Exercise Intensity in Endurance-Trained Runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Victor M; den Tillaar, Roland Van; Marques, Mario C

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of oxygen uptake with heart rate regression during track running in highly-trained runners. Twelve national and international level male long-distance road runners (age 30.7 ± 5.5 yrs, height 1.71 ± 0.04 m and mass 61.2 ± 5.8 kg) with a personal best on the half marathon of 62 min 37 s ± 1 min 22 s participated in the study. Each participant performed, in an all-weather synthetic track five, six min bouts at constant velocity with each bout at an increased running velocity. The starting velocity was 3.33 m·s(-1) with a 0.56 m·s(-1) increase on each subsequent bout. VO2 and heart rate were measured during the runs and blood lactate was assessed immediately after each run. Mean peak VO2 and mean peak heart rate were, respectively, 76.2 ± 9.7 mL·kg(-1)·min(-1) and 181 ± 13 beats·min(-1). The linearity of the regressions between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 were all very high (r > 0.99) with small standard errors of regression (i.e. Sy.x at the velocity associated with the 2 and 4 mmol·L(-1) lactate thresholds). The strong relationships between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 found in this study show that, in highly trained runners, it is possible to have heart rate as an accurate indicator of energy demand and of the running speed. Therefore, in this subject cohort it may be unnecessary to use VO2 to track changes in the subjects' running economy during training periods. Key pointsHeart rate is used in the control of exercise intensity in endurance sports.However, few studies have quantified the precision of its relationship with oxygen uptake in highly trained runners.We evaluated twelve elite half-marathon runners during track running at various intensities and established three regressions: oxygen uptake / heart rate; heart rate / running velocity and oxygen uptake / running velocity.The three regressions presented, respectively, imprecision of 4,2%, 2,75% and 4,5% at the velocity

  4. The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Fiona; Lopes, Safiatu; Harding, Stephen; Vaux, Emma; Berkin, Liz; Black, David

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study was to follow up a sample of physicians who began core medical training (CMT) in 2009. This paper examines the long-term validity of CMT and GP selection methods in predicting performance in the Membership of Royal College of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations. We performed a longitudinal study, examining the extent to which the GP and CMT selection methods (T1) predict performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations (T2). A total of 2,569 applicants from 2008-09 who completed CMT and GP selection methods were included in the study. Looking at MRCP(UK) part 1, part 2 written and PACES scores, both CMT and GP selection methods show evidence of predictive validity for the outcome variables, and hierarchical regressions show the GP methods add significant value to the CMT selection process. CMT selection methods predict performance in important outcomes and have good evidence of validity; the GP methods may have an additional role alongside the CMT selection methods. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

  5. THE NEW VIEW AT THE QUALITY OF ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL SCIENCE AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING OF STUDENTS OF SECONDARY VOCATIONAL EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alsu Raufovna Kamaleeva

    2017-12-01

    integrative qualities of students taking into account specifics of a training course is described. Practical implications: the received results will be useful to teachers of disciplines of a natural-science and professional cycle in system of secondary professional education.

  6. Evaluation of recruitment and selection for specialty training in public health: interim results of a prospective cohort study to measure the predictive validity of the selection process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashayan, Nora; Gray, Selena; Duff, Celia; Parkes, Julie; Williams, David; Patterson, Fiona; Koczwara, Anna; Fisher, Grant; Mason, Brendan W

    2016-06-01

    The recruitment process for public health specialty training includes an assessment centre (AC) with three components, Rust Advanced Numerical Reasoning Appraisal (RANRA), Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal (WGCT) and a Situation Judgement Test (SJT), which determines invitation to a selection centre (SC). The scores are combined into a total recruitment (TR) score that determines the offers of appointment. A prospective cohort study using anonymous record linkage to investigate the association between applicant's scores in the recruitment process and registrar's progress through training measured by results of Membership Faculty Public Health (MFPH) examinations and outcomes of the Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP). Higher scores in RANRA, WGCT, AC, SC and TR were all significantly associated with higher adjusted odds of passing Part A MFPH exam at the first attempt. Higher scores in AC, SC and TR were significantly associated with passing Part B exam at the first attempt. Higher scores in SJT, AC and SC were significantly associated with satisfactory ARCP outcomes. The current UK national recruitment and selection process for public health specialty training has good predictive validity. The individual components of the process are testing different skills and abilities and together they are providing additive value. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Preservice music teachers' predictions, perceptions, and assessment of students with special needs: the need for training in student assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanWeelden, Kimberly; Whipple, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine preservice teachers' predictions and perceptions of students with special needs' levels of mastery of specific music education concepts and actual grades achieved by these students using alternative assessments and testing accommodations within two subpopulations: students with emotional and/or behavior disorders (EDBD) and students with acute cognitive delays (ACD). The preservice teachers predicted students within the EDBD class would achieve a significantly higher level of mastery of the music concepts than students within the ACD classroom. After the field experience, however, the preservice teachers' perceptions of all students' levels of mastery increased from prediction scores overall. Additionally, preservice teachers were able to execute testing accommodations and implement successful alternative assessments which gave empirical data on the students' levels of mastery of the music education concepts within the curriculum. Implications for music therapists, as consultants in special education, are discussed.

  8. Do in-training evaluation reports deserve their bad reputations? A study of the reliability and predictive ability of ITER scores and narrative comments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Shiphra; Eva, Kevin; Regehr, Glenn

    2013-10-01

    Although scores on in-training evaluation reports (ITERs) are often criticized for poor reliability and validity, ITER comments may yield valuable information. The authors assessed across-rotation reliability of ITER scores in one internal medicine program, ability of ITER scores and comments to predict postgraduate year three (PGY3) performance, and reliability and incremental predictive validity of attendings' analysis of written comments. Numeric and narrative data from the first two years of ITERs for one cohort of residents at the University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine (2009-2011) were assessed for reliability and predictive validity of third-year performance. Twenty-four faculty attendings rank-ordered comments (without scores) such that each resident was ranked by three faculty. Mean ITER scores and comment rankings were submitted to regression analyses; dependent variables were PGY3 ITER scores and program directors' rankings. Reliabilities of ITER scores across nine rotations for 63 residents were 0.53 for both postgraduate year one (PGY1) and postgraduate year two (PGY2). Interrater reliabilities across three attendings' rankings were 0.83 for PGY1 and 0.79 for PGY2. There were strong correlations between ITER scores and comments within each year (0.72 and 0.70). Regressions revealed that PGY1 and PGY2 ITER scores collectively explained 25% of variance in PGY3 scores and 46% of variance in PGY3 rankings. Comment rankings did not improve predictions. ITER scores across multiple rotations showed decent reliability and predictive validity. Comment ranks did not add to the predictive ability, but correlation analyses suggest that trainee performance can be measured through these comments.

  9. Promoting Changes in Children's Predictive Rules about Natural Phenomena: The Role of Computer-Based Modelling Strategies. Technical Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenette, Micheline

    Trying to change the predictive rule for the sinking and floating phenomena, students have a great difficulty in understanding density and they are insensitive to empirical counter-examples designed to challenge their own rule. The purpose of this study is to examine the process whereby students from sixth and seventh grades relinquish their…

  10. A simulation model for the prediction of tissue:plasma partition coefficients for drug residues in natural casings.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haritova, A.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2010-01-01

    Tissue residues arise from the exposure of animals to undesirable substances in animal feed materials and drinking water and to the therapeutic or zootechnical use of veterinary medicinal products. In the framework of this study, an advanced toxicokinetic model was developed to predict the

  11. Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture : Part B: Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

    2016-01-01

    An important advantage of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) as future systems for large scale power generation is the possibility of being efficiently integrated with processes for CO2 capture. Focusing on natural gas power generation, Part A of this work assessed the performances of advanced

  12. The Natural Science Program at the University of New Mexico: Geosciences Play a Central Role in Preservice Teacher Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyman, M. W.; Ellwein, A. L.; Geissman, J. W.; McFadden, L. D.; Crossey, L. J.

    2007-12-01

    An important component for future directions of geoscience departments is public education. The role of geoscience departments in the preparation and professional development of K-12 teachers is particularly critical, and merges with other teaching missions within the University. The importance of geoscience content for teachers (and the general public) is evident in the numerous earth science related public policy issues that are the subject of ever-increasing attention (climate change, energy resources, water utilization, etc.). The earth and space sciences are not only included in both state and federal science content education standards but are also inherently interesting to students and therefore provide an important gateway to foster interest in science as well as other scientific disciplines. For over 10 years, the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS) at the University of New Mexico (UNM) has housed and supported the Natural Science Program (NSP), which provides science content courses and numerous programs for K-12 pre- and in-service teachers. Classes and laboratories are integrated, and are capped at 21 students in the 200-level courses, assuring an active and supportive learning environment for students who are typically science-phobic with negative or no experiences with science. Enrollments are maintained at ~150 preservice teachers per semester. The program is staffed by two lecturers, who have advanced degrees in the geosciences as well as K-12 teaching experience, and several part time instructors, including graduate students who gain valuable teaching experience through teaching in the NSP. With continued support from the department, the NSP has expanded to develop robust and functional relationships related to science teacher professional development with Sandia National Laboratories and local school districts, initiated development of a graduate certificate in science teaching and, advanced a proposal for the development of an Energy

  13. HIGHER PRECISION OF HEART RATE COMPARED WITH VO2 TO PREDICT EXERCISE INTENSITY IN ENDURANCE-TRAINED RUNNERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Reis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of oxygen uptake with heart rate regression during track running in highly-trained runners. Twelve national and international level male long-distance road runners (age 30.7 ± 5.5 yrs, height 1.71 ± 0.04 m and mass 61.2 ± 5.8 kg with a personal best on the half marathon of 62 min 37 s ± 1 min 22 s participated in the study. Each participant performed, in an all-weather synthetic track five, six min bouts at constant velocity with each bout at an increased running velocity. The starting velocity was 3.33 m·s-1 with a 0.56 m·s-1 increase on each subsequent bout. VO2 and heart rate were measured during the runs and blood lactate was assessed immediately after each run. Mean peak VO2 and mean peak heart rate were, respectively, 76.2 ± 9.7 mL·kg-1·min-1 and 181 ± 13 beats·min-1. The linearity of the regressions between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 were all very high (r > 0.99 with small standard errors of regression (i.e. Sy.x < 5% at the velocity associated with the 2 and 4 mmol·L-1 lactate thresholds. The strong relationships between heart rate, running velocity and VO2 found in this study show that, in highly trained runners, it is possible to have heart rate as an accurate indicator of energy demand and of the running speed. Therefore, in this subject cohort it may be unnecessary to use VO2 to track changes in the subjects' running economy during training periods.

  14. Natural Analogues - One Way to Help Build Public Confidence in the Predicted Performance of a Mined Geologic Repository for Nuclear Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuckless, J. S.

    2002-02-26

    The general public needs to have a way to judge the predicted long-term performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The applicability and reliability of mathematical models used to make this prediction are neither easily understood nor accepted by the public. Natural analogues can provide the average person with a tool to assess the predicted performance and other scientific conclusions. For example, hydrologists with the Yucca Mountain Project have predicted that most of the water moving through the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move through the host rock and around tunnels. Thus, seepage into tunnels is predicted to be a small percentage of available infiltration. This hypothesis can be tested experimentally and with some quantitative analogues. It can also be tested qualitatively using a variety of analogues such as (1) well-preserved Paleolithic to Neolithic paintings in caves and rock shelters, (2) biological remains preserved in caves and rock shelters, and (3) artifacts and paintings preserved in man-made underground openings. These examples can be found in materials that are generally available to the non-scientific public and can demonstrate the surprising degree of preservation of fragile and easily destroyed materials for very long periods of time within the unsaturated zone.

  15. Impact of natural organic matter and increased water hardness on DGT prediction of copper bioaccumulation by yellow lampmussel (Lampsilis cariosa) and fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philipps, Rebecca R; Xu, Xiaoyu; Mills, Gary L; Bringolf, Robert B

    2018-06-01

    We conducted an exposure experiment with Diffusive Gradients in Thin- Films (DGT), fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas), and yellow lampmussel (Lampsilis cariosa) to estimate bioavailability and bioaccumulation of Cu. We hypothesized that Cu concentrations measured by DGT can be used to predict Cu accumulation in aquatic animals and alterations of water chemistry can affect DGT's predict ability. Three water chemistries (control soft water, hard water, and addition of natural organic matter (NOM)) and three Cu concentrations (0, 30, and 60 μg/L) were selected, so nine Cu-water chemistry combinations were used. NOM addition treatments resulted in decreased concentrations of DGT-measured Cu and free Cu ion predicted by Biotic Ligand Model (BLM). Both hard water and NOM addition treatments had reduced concentrations of Cu ion and Cu-dissolved organic matter complexes compared to other treatments. DGT-measured Cu concentrations were linearly correlated to fish accumulated Cu, but not to mussel accumulated Cu. Concentrations of bioavailable Cu predicted by BLM, the species complexed with biotic ligands of aquatic organisms and, was highly correlated to DGT-measured Cu. In general, DGT-measured Cu fit Cu accumulations in fish, and this passive sampling technique is acceptable at predicting Cu concentrations in fish in waters with low NOM concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicting Health Care Utilization After the First Behavioral Health Visit Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Roysden, Nathaniel

    2016-01-01

    Mental health problems are an independent predictor of increased healthcare utilization. We created random forest classifiers for predicting two outcomes following a patient’s first behavioral health encounter: decreased utilization by any amount (AUROC 0.74) and ultra-high absolute utilization (AUROC 0.88). These models may be used for clinical decision support by referring providers, to automatically detect patients who may benefit from referral, for cost management, or for risk/protection ...

  17. Dynamics and Predictive Potential of Antibodies against Insect-Derived Recombinant Leishmania infantum Proteins during Chemotherapy of Naturally Infected Dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todolí, Felicitat; Galindo, Inmaculada; Gómez-Sebastián, Silvia; Pérez-Filgueira, Mariano; Escribano, José M.; Alberola, Jordi; Rodríguez-Cortés, Alhelí

    2010-01-01

    A predictive marker for the success treatment of canine leishmaniasis is required for the application of a more rational therapy protocol, which must improve the probability of cure and reduce Leishmania resistance to drugs. We investigated the dynamics and predictive value of antibodies against insect-derived recombinant L. infantum proteins rKMPII and rTRYP by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with retrospective serum samples from 36 dogs during treatment of canine leishmaniasis. In the entire group of dogs, concentrations of antibodies against rKMPII and rTRYP significantly decreased earlier than concentrations of antibodies against crude total Leishmania antigen (one versus six months), which suggested that the dynamics of antibodies against recombinant proteins may be useful for assessing clinical improvement after treatment. Interestingly, decreases in antibody concentrations against rKMPII occurred earlier in disease-free dogs than in dogs that remain clinically ill one year after beginning of treatment, which suggested that these antibodies may be useful for predicting disease-free survival one year after the beginning of therapy against canine leishmaniasis. PMID:20439957

  18. Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, M.

    2009-04-01

    The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

  19. Comparison of Different Height–Diameter Modelling Techniques for Prediction of Site Productivity in Natural Uneven-Aged Pure Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangshuang Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable estimates of forest site productivity are a central element of forest management. The model of height-diameter relationship of dominant trees using algebraic difference approach (ADA is a commonly used method to measure site productivity of natural uneven-aged stands. However, the existing models of this method do not recognize site type or sample plot specific variability in height curves; thus, it cannot be effectively used to estimate site type or sample plot-related site productivity for natural uneven-aged stands. Two primary subject-specific approaches, ADA with dummy variable (DV (ADA + DV and ADA with combination of dummy variable and nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (CM (ADA + CM, were proposed for height–diameter modelling. Height–diameter models developed with ADA, ADA + DV and ADA + CM were compared using data from 4161 observations on 349 permanent sample plots of four major natural uneven-aged pure stands (Spruce, Korean Larch, Mongolian Oak, and White Birch in northeastern China. It was found that models developed with ADA + CM provided the best performance, followed by the models with ADA + DV, and the models developed with ADA performed the worst. Random effects at the plot level were substantial, and their inclusion greatly improved the model’s accuracy. More importantly, the models developed with ADA + CM provide an effective method for quantifying site type- and sample plot-specific forest site productivity for uneven-aged pure stands.

  20. Mechanics of train collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-04-30

    A simple and a more detailed mathematical model for the simulation of train collisions are presented. The study presents considerable insight as to the causes and consequences of train motions on impact. Comparison of model predictions with two full ...

  1. Dopamine D1 sensitivity in the prefrontal cortex predicts general cognitive abilities and is modulated by working memory training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wass, Christopher; Pizzo, Alessandro; Sauce, Bruno; Kawasumi, Yushi; Sturzoiu, Tudor; Ree, Fred; Otto, Tim; Matzel, Louis D

    2013-10-15

    A common source of variance (i.e., "general intelligence") underlies an individual's performance across diverse tests of cognitive ability, and evidence indicates that the processing efficacy of working memory may serve as one such source of common variance. One component of working memory, selective attention, has been reported to co-vary with general intelligence, and dopamine D1 signaling in prefrontal cortex can modulate attentional abilities. Based on their aggregate performance across five diverse tests of learning, here we characterized the general cognitive ability (GCA) of CD-1 outbred mice. In response to a D1 agonist (SKF82958, 1 mg/kg), we then assessed the relationship between GCA and activation of D1 receptor (D1R)-containing neurons in the prelimbic region of the medial prefrontal cortex, the agranular insular cortex, and the dorsomedial striatum. Increased activation of D1R-containing neurons in the prelimbic cortex (but not the agranular insular cortex or dorsomedial striatum) was observed in animals of high GCA relative to those of low GCA (quantified by c-Fos activation in response to the D1 agonist). However, a Western blot analysis revealed no differences in the density of D1Rs in the prelimbic cortex between animals of high and low GCA. Last, it was observed that working memory training promoted an increase in animals' GCA and enhanced D1R-mediated neuronal activation in the prelimbic cortex. These results suggest that the sensitivity (but not density) of D1Rs in the prelimbic cortex may both regulate GCA and be a target for working memory training.

  2. Virtual screening of natural inhibitors to the predicted HBx protein structure of Hepatitis B Virus using molecular docking for identification of potential lead molecules for liver cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Rajesh Kumar; Baunthiyal, Mamta; Taj, Gohar; Kumar, Anil

    2014-01-01

    The HBx protein in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a potential target for anti-liver cancer molecules. Therefore, it is of interest to screen known natural compounds against the HBx protein using molecular docking. However, the structure of HBx is not yet known. Therefore, the predicted structure of HBx using threading in LOMET was used for docking against plant derived natural compounds (curcumin, oleanolic acid, resveratrol, bilobetin, luteoline, ellagic acid, betulinic acid and rutin) by Molegro Virtual Docker. The screening identified rutin with binding energy of -161.65 Kcal/mol. Thus, twenty derivatives of rutin were further designed and screened against HBx. These in silico experiments identified compounds rutin01 (-163.16 Kcal/mol) and rutin08 (- 165.76 Kcal/mol) for further consideration and downstream validation. PMID:25187683

  3. The Effect of a Laboratory Approach Based on Predict-Observation-Explain (POE Strategy on the Development of Students’ Science Process Skills and Views about Nature of Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kadir Bilen

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a laboratory instruction prepared based on “Predict-Observation-Explain” (POE strategy compared to a verification laboratory approach on the development of pre-service science teachers’ science skill processes and their views of nature of sceince in a general biology laboratory course. The participants of this study consisted of 122 pre-service teachers who took the General Biology Laboratory at the department of science education at Pamukkale University during the fall semester of 2007-2008 academic year. Data was collected through Science Process Skills Test (SPST and Nature of Science Questionnaire. Results indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between the verification laboratory approach and the laboratory approach based on the POE strategy on the development of students’ science process skills [F=10.41, p

  4. Comparison of ICRP Publication 30 lung model-based predictions with measured bioassay data for airborne natural UO2 exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thind, K.S.

    1987-01-01

    In this paper a comparison is made between the build-up of U thorax burdens and the predicted total lung (lung and lymph) burden, based on the lung model provided in ICRP Publication 30 for a group of 29 atomic radiation workers at a Canadian fuel fabrication facility. A similar comparison is made between the predicted ratio of the total lung burden to urinary excretion and the ratio obtained from bioassay data. The study period for the comparison is 5 y. The inhalation input for the lung model calculations was derived from air-sampling data and the choice of particle size activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) was guided by particle size measurements made at representative work locations. The pulmonary clearance half-times studied were 100, 250 and 500 d. For the purpose of this comparison, averaged exposure and averaged bioassay data for the group were used. This comparison indicates that for the conditions of this facility, the assumption of a 500-d pulmonary clearance half-time and a particle size of 1 micron (AMAD) may be too conservative. It is suggested that measurements of air concentrations and particle size used as input parameters for the ICRP Publication 30 lung model may be used to calculate bioassay parameters which may then be tested against bioassay data obtained as part of an operational health physics program, thereby giving a useful step towards defining a derived air concentration value for U in the workplace

  5. Effect of natural microbiota on growth of Salmonella spp. in fresh pork – A predictive microbiology approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Cleide; Ilg, Y.; Aabo, Søren

    2013-01-01

    for lag time, max. specific growth rate and max. population density. Data from literature were used to develop growth models for the natural pork microbiota. Challenge tests at temperatures from 9.4 to 24.1 °C and with Salmonella inoculated in ground pork were used for evaluation of interaction models....... The existing Jameson-effect and Lotka–Volterra species interaction models and a new expanded Jameson-effect model were evaluated. F-test indicated lack-of-fit for the classical Jameson-effect model at all of the tested temperatures and at 14.1–20.2 °C this was caused by continued growth of Salmonella after...

  6. The Cynomolgus Macaque Natural History Model of Pneumonic Tularemia for Predicting Clinical Efficacy Under the Animal Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guina, Tina; Lanning, Lynda L.; Omland, Kristian S.; Williams, Mark S.; Wolfraim, Larry A.; Heyse, Stephen P.; Houchens, Christopher R.; Sanz, Patrick; Hewitt, Judith A.

    2018-01-01

    Francisella tularensis is a highly infectious Gram-negative bacterium that is the etiologic agent of tularemia in animals and humans and a Tier 1 select agent. The natural incidence of pneumonic tularemia worldwide is very low; therefore, it is not feasible to conduct clinical efficacy testing of tularemia medical countermeasures (MCM) in human populations. Development and licensure of tularemia therapeutics and vaccines need to occur under the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Animal Rule under which efficacy studies are conducted in well-characterized animal models that reflect the pathophysiology of human disease. The Tularemia Animal Model Qualification (AMQ) Working Group is seeking qualification of the cynomolgus macaque (Macaca fascicularis) model of pneumonic tularemia under Drug Development Tools Qualification Programs with the FDA based upon the results of studies described in this manuscript. Analysis of data on survival, average time to death, average time to fever onset, average interval between fever and death, and bacteremia; together with summaries of clinical signs, necropsy findings, and histopathology from the animals exposed to aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4 in five natural history studies and one antibiotic efficacy study form the basis for the proposed cynomolgus macaque model. Results support the conclusion that signs of pneumonic tularemia in cynomolgus macaques exposed to 300–3,000 colony forming units (cfu) aerosolized F. tularensis Schu S4, under the conditions described herein, and human pneumonic tularemia cases are highly similar. Animal age, weight, and sex of animals challenged with 300–3,000 cfu Schu S4 did not impact fever onset in studies described herein. This study summarizes critical parameters and endpoints of a well-characterized cynomolgus macaque model of pneumonic tularemia and demonstrates this model is appropriate for qualification, and for testing efficacy of tularemia therapeutics under Animal Rule. PMID

  7. [Prediction and spatial distribution of recruitment trees of natural secondary forest based on geographically weighted Poisson model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling Yu; Liu, Zhao Gang

    2017-12-01

    Based on the data collected from 108 permanent plots of the forest resources survey in Maoershan Experimental Forest Farm during 2004-2016, this study investigated the spatial distribution of recruitment trees in natural secondary forest by global Poisson regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) with four bandwidths of 2.5, 5, 10 and 15 km. The simulation effects of the 5 regressions and the factors influencing the recruitment trees in stands were analyzed, a description was given to the spatial autocorrelation of the regression residuals on global and local levels using Moran's I. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the number of natural secondary forest recruitment was significantly influenced by stands and topographic factors, especially average DBH. The GWPR model with small scale (2.5 km) had high accuracy of model fitting, a large range of model parameter estimates was generated, and the localized spatial distribution effect of the model parameters was obtained. The GWPR model at small scale (2.5 and 5 km) had produced a small range of model residuals, and the stability of the model was improved. The global spatial auto-correlation of the GWPR model residual at the small scale (2.5 km) was the lowe-st, and the local spatial auto-correlation was significantly reduced, in which an ideal spatial distribution pattern of small clusters with different observations was formed. The local model at small scale (2.5 km) was much better than the global model in the simulation effect on the spatial distribution of recruitment tree number.

  8. Injury rates in martial art athletes: anthropometric parameters and training volume, but not foot morphology indexes, are predictive risk factors for lower limb injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitale, Jacopo A; Bassani, Tito; Galbusera, Fabio; Bianchi, Alberto; Martinelli, Nicolò

    2017-09-22

    Previous studies attempted to identify possible risk factors for acute and overuse injuries in several sports disciplines such as running, gymnastics or team sports. Given the lack of scientific works focused on risk factors for lower limb injuries in martial arts, the present study was aimed to investigate foot anatomy, anthropometric measures, and other background information as possible risk factors of injury in barefoot athletes practicing judo, karate, kung fu, thai boxe, or aikido. In addition, the injury rates were evaluated in relation with the different martial art styles. One group of 130 martial artists was retrospectively evaluated. Data of three foot morphological variables were collected: navicular height (NH), navicular drop (ND) and the rear foot (RF). In addition, each participant filled an interview questionnaire providing the following information: age, sex, body weight, height, BMI, hours of training per week, the kind of injury occurred to the lower limbs in the preceding year. Of 130 subjects, 70 (53.8%) did not sustain injuries, 35 (27.0%) suffered an acute injury and the remaining 25 (19.2%) reported an overuse injury. No significant differences were observed in the injury rates in relation to style and kind of martial art. Age, training volume and BMI were found as significant predictors of injury, while NH, ND and RF were not able to predict acute or overuse injury at lower limbs. The injury rates were similar in karate, judo, kung fu, aikido, and thai boxe. The foot morphology variables were not related with the presence or absence of acute and overuse injuries. Conversely, older and heavier martial artists, performing more hours of barefoot training, are at higher risk of acute and overuse injury. Athletic trainers should strongly take into account the present information in order to develop more accurate and specific injury prevention programs for martial artists.

  9. High Intensity Interval Training Increases Natural Killer Cell Number and Function in Obese Breast Cancer-challenged Mice and Obese Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barra, Nicole G; Fan, Isabella Y; Gillen, Jenna B; Chew, Marianne; Marcinko, Katarina; Steinberg, Gregory R; Gibala, Martin J; Ashkar, Ali A

    2017-12-01

    High intensity interval training (HIIT) boosts natural killer (NK) cell number and activity in normal weight breast cancer patients; however, whether this occurs in obese individuals is not well established. The goal of this study was to determine whether HIIT effectively boosts NK cells as a therapeutic strategy against breast cancer in an obese mouse model and in overweight/obese women. Diet induced female C57Bl/6 obese mice were assigned to undergo HIIT for four weeks or remain sedentary. Female participants were subjected to a six weeks HIIT protocol. HIIT mice acclimatized to treadmill running were subsequently injected with 5 × 10 5 polyoma middle T (MT) breast cancer cells intravenously. NK cell number and activation were monitored using flow cytometry, and tumor burden or lipid content evaluated from histological lung and liver tissues, respectively. In both mice and humans, circulating NK cell number and activation (CD3-NK1.1+CD27+ and CD3-CD56+, respectively) markedly increased immediately after HIIT. HIIT obese mice had reduced lung tumor burden compared to controls following MT challenge, and had diminished hepatic lipid deposition despite minimal body weight loss. Our findings demonstrate that HIIT can benefit obese individuals by enhancing NK cell number and activity, reducing tumor burden, and enhancing metabolic health.

  10. Influence of radiation on predictive accuracy in numerical simulations of the thermal environment in industrial buildings with buoyancy-driven natural ventilation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Xiaojing; Wang, Yi; Liu, Tiening; Xing, Xiao; Cao, Yingxue; Zhao, Jiangping

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The effects of radiation on predictive accuracy in numerical simulations were studied. • A scaled experimental model with a high-temperature heat source was set up. • Simulation results were discussed considering with and without radiation model. • The buoyancy force and the ventilation rate were investigated. - Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of radiation on predictive accuracy in the numerical simulations of industrial buildings. A scaled experimental model with a high-temperature heat source is set up and the buoyancy-driven natural ventilation performance is presented. Besides predicting ventilation performance in an industrial building, the scaled model in this paper is also used to generate data to validate the numerical simulations. The simulation results show good agreement with the experiment data. The effects of radiation on predictive accuracy in the numerical simulations are studied for both pure convection model and combined convection and radiation model. Detailed results are discussed regarding the temperature and velocity distribution, the buoyancy force and the ventilation rate. The temperature and velocity distributions through the middle plane are presented for the pure convection model and the combined convection and radiation model. It is observed that the overall temperature and velocity magnitude predicted by the simulations for pure convection were significantly greater than those for the combined convection and radiation model. In addition, the Grashof number and the ventilation rate are investigated. The results show that the Grashof number and the ventilation rate are greater for the pure convection model than for the combined convection and radiation model.

  11. Predicting performance using background characteristics of international medical graduates in an inner-city university-affiliated Internal Medicine residency training program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanna, Balavenkatesh; Gu, Ying; Akhuetie, Jane; Dimitrov, Vihren

    2009-01-01

    I & step II clinical skills scores were 85 (IQR: 80–88) & 82 (IQR: 79–87) respectively. The median aggregate CBE scores during training were: PG1 5.8 (IQR: 5.6–6.3); PG2 6.3 (IQR 6–6.8) & PG3 6.7 (IQR: 6.7 – 7.1). 25% of our residents scored consistently above US national median ITE scores in all 3 years of training and 16% pursued a fellowship. Younger residents had higher aggregate annual CBE score than the program median (p ITE scores, reflecting exam-taking skills. Success in acquiring a fellowship was associated with consistent fellowship interest (p < 0.05) and research publications or presentations (p <0.05). None of the other characteristics including visa status were associated with the outcomes. Conclusion Background IMG features namely, age and USMLE scores predict performance evaluation and in-training examination scores during residency training. In addition enhanced research activities during residency training could facilitate fellowship goals among interested IMGs. PMID:19594918

  12. Antral follicle count predicts natural menopause in a population-based sample: the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Women's Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellons, Melissa F; Bates, Gordon Wright; Schreiner, Pamela J; Siscovick, David S; Sternfeld, Barbara; Lewis, Cora E

    2013-08-01

    The timing of menopause is associated with multiple chronic diseases. Tools that predict this milestone have relevance for clinical and research purposes. Among infertile women, a positive relationship exists between antral follicle count (AFC) and response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation, a marker of ovarian reserve. However, an age-independent relationship between AFC and menopause has not been demonstrated. Thus, our objective was to evaluate the relationship between AFC measured in women aged 34 to 49 years and incident natural menopause during 7 years of follow-up. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study is a longitudinal community-based study (Chicago, IL; Birmingham, AL; Minneapolis, MN; and Oakland, CA) begun in 1985-1986. In 2002-2003, the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Women's Study measured follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels and performed a transvaginal ultrasound protocol that included AFC (2-10 mm follicles on both ovaries). Incident natural menopause was assessed by surveys in 2005-2006 and 2009-2010. In our sample (n = 456), the median (interquartile range) AFC and FSH level were 5 (2-9) and 7.8 (5.6-11.0) mIU/mL, respectively, at a mean (range) age of 42 (34-49) years in 2002-2003. One hundred one women reported natural menopause by 2009-2010. In Cox models, current smoking, stable menses, FSH level higher than 13 mIU/mL, and AFC of 4 or less were independently associated with incident natural menopause. Compared with AFC higher than 4, those with an AFC of 4 or less were nearly twice as likely to have undergone menopause during 7 years of follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.19-3.02) after adjustment for covariates. AFC has been found to be independently associated with natural menopause during 7 years of follow-up after controlling for other markers of ovarian aging.

  13. Forecasting the Value of Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarab, Dave

    2011-01-01

    The Predictive Evaluation (PE) model is a training and evaluation approach with the element of prediction. PE allows trainers and business leaders to predict the results, value, intention, adoption, and impact of training, allowing them to make smarter, more strategic training and evaluation investments. PE is invaluable for companies that…

  14. A reduced mechanism for predicting the ignition timing of a fuel blend of natural-gas and n-heptane in HCCI engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahlouli, Keyvan; Atikol, Ugur; Khoshbakhti Saray, R.; Mohammadi, Vahid

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A two-stage reduction process is used to produce two reduced mechanisms. • The mechanisms are combined to develop a reaction mechanism for a fuel blend. • The genetic algorithm is used for optimization of reaction constants. • The developed reduced mechanism can be used to predict the ignition timing in HCCI engine for a fuel blend. - Abstract: One of the main challenges associated with homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) combustion engine application is the lack of direct control on ignition timing. One of the solutions to this problem is mixing two fuels with various properties at a variety of ratios on a cycle-by-cycle basis. In the current study, a reduced mechanism for a fuel blend of natural-gas and n-heptane is proposed. The approach is validated for the prediction of ignition timing in the HCCI combustion engine. A single-zone combustion model is used to simulate the HCCI engine. A two-stage reduction process is used to produce two reduced mechanisms of existing semi-detailed GRI-Mech. 3.0 mechanism that contains 53 species and 325 reactions and Golovichev’s mechanism consisting of 57 species and 290 reactions for natural gas and n-heptane fuels, respectively. Firstly, the unimportant species and related reactions are identified by employing the directed relation graph with error propagation (DRGEP) reduction method and then, to extend reduction, the principal component analysis (PCA) method is utilized. To evaluate the validity of the reduced mechanism, representative engine combustion parameters such as peak pressure, maximum heat release, and CA50 are used. The reduced mechanism of GRI-Mech. 3.0 mechanism, containing 19 species and 39 reactions, and the reduced mechanism of Golovichev’s mechanism, consisting of 40 species and 95 reactions, provide good prediction for the mentioned parameters in comparison with those of detailed mechanisms. The combination of the generated reduced mechanisms is used to develop a

  15. Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture - Part B: Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

    2016-09-01

    An important advantage of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) as future systems for large scale power generation is the possibility of being efficiently integrated with processes for CO2 capture. Focusing on natural gas power generation, Part A of this work assessed the performances of advanced pressurised and atmospheric plant configurations (SOFC + GT and SOFC + ST, with fuel cell integration within a gas turbine or a steam turbine cycle) without CO2 separation. This Part B paper investigates such kind of power cycles when applied to CO2 capture, proposing two ultra-high efficiency plant configurations based on advanced intermediate-temperature SOFCs with internal reforming and low temperature CO2 separation process. The power plants are simulated at the 100 MW scale with a set of realistic assumptions about FC performances, main components and auxiliaries, and show the capability of exceeding 70% LHV efficiency with high CO2 capture (above 80%) and a low specific primary energy consumption for the CO2 avoided (1.1-2.4 MJ kg-1). Detailed results are presented in terms of energy and material balances, and a sensitivity analysis of plant performance is developed vs. FC voltage and fuel utilisation to investigate possible long-term improvements. Options for further improvement of the CO2 capture efficiency are also addressed.

  16. Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture - Part A: Methodology and reference cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

    2016-08-01

    Driven by the search for the highest theoretical efficiency, in the latest years several studies investigated the integration of high temperature fuel cells in natural gas fired power plants, where fuel cells are integrated with simple or modified Brayton cycles and/or with additional bottoming cycles, and CO2 can be separated via chemical or physical separation, oxy-combustion and cryogenic methods. Focusing on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) and following a comprehensive review and analysis of possible plant configurations, this work investigates their theoretical potential efficiency and proposes two ultra-high efficiency plant configurations based on advanced intermediate-temperature SOFCs integrated with a steam turbine or gas turbine cycle. The SOFC works at atmospheric or pressurized conditions and the resulting power plant exceeds 78% LHV efficiency without CO2 capture (as discussed in part A of the work) and 70% LHV efficiency with substantial CO2 capture (part B). The power plants are simulated at the 100 MW scale with a complete set of realistic assumptions about fuel cell (FC) performance, plant components and auxiliaries, presenting detailed energy and material balances together with a second law analysis.

  17. Numerical prediction of heat transfer by natural convection and radiation in an enclosure filled with an isotropic scattering medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moufekkir, F.; Moussaoui, M.A.; Mezrhab, A.; Naji, H.; Lemonnier, D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the numerical solution for natural convection and volumetric radiation in an isotropic scattering medium within a heated square cavity using a hybrid thermal lattice Boltzmann method (HTLBM). The multiple relaxation time lattice Boltzmann method (MRT-LBM) has been coupled to the finite difference method (FDM) to solve momentum and energy equations, while the discrete ordinates method (DOM) has been adopted to solve the radiative transfer equation (RTE) using the S8 quadrature. Based on these approaches, the effects of various influencing parameters such as the Rayleigh number (Ra), the wall emissivity (ε ι ), the Planck number (Pl), and the scattering albedo (ω), have been considered. The results presented in terms of isotherms, streamlines and averaged Nusselt number, show that in absence of radiation, the temperature and the flow fields are centro-symmetrics and the cavity core is thermally stratified. However, radiation causes an overall increase in the temperature and velocity gradients along both thermally active walls. The maximum heat transfer rate is obtained when the surfaces of the enclosure walls are regarded as blackbodies. It is also seen that the scattering medium can generate a multicellular flow.

  18. Natural hazards and motivation for mitigation behavior: people cannot predict the affect evoked by a severe flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Gutscher, Heinz

    2008-06-01

    Past research indicates that personal flood experience is an important factor in motivating mitigation behavior. It is not fully clear, however, why such experience is so important. This study tested the hypothesis that people without flooding experience underestimate the negative affect evoked by such an event. People who were affected by a severe recent flood disaster were compared with people who were not affected, but who also lived in flood-prone areas. Face-to-face interviews with open and closed questions were conducted (n= 201). Results suggest that people without flood experience envisaged the consequences of a flood differently from people who had actually experienced severe losses due to a flood. People who were not affected strongly underestimated the negative affect associated with a flood. Based on the results, it can be concluded that risk communication must not focus solely on technical aspects; in order to trigger motivation for mitigation behavior, successful communication must also help people to envisage the negative emotional consequences of natural disasters.

  19. Sebum and Hydration Levels in Specific Regions of Human Face Significantly Predict the Nature and Diversity of Facial Skin Microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Souvik; Mitra, Rupak; Maitra, Arindam; Gupta, Satyaranjan; Kumaran, Srikala; Chakrabortty, Amit; Majumder, Partha P

    2016-10-27

    The skin microbiome varies across individuals. The causes of these variations are inadequately understood. We tested the hypothesis that inter-individual variation in facial skin microbiome can be significantly explained by variation in sebum and hydration levels in specific facial regions of humans. We measured sebum and hydration from forehead and cheek regions of healthy female volunteers (n = 30). Metagenomic DNA from skin swabs were sequenced for V3-V5 regions of 16S rRNA gene. Altogether, 34 phyla were identified; predominantly Actinobacteria (66.3%), Firmicutes (17.7%), Proteobacteria (13.1%) and Bacteroidetes (1.4%). About 1000 genera were identified; predominantly Propionibacterium (58.6%), Staphylococcus (8.6%), Streptococcus (4.0%), Corynebacterium (3.6%) and Paracoccus (3.3%). A subset (n = 24) of individuals were sampled two months later. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that cheek sebum level was the most significant predictor of microbiome composition and diversity followed by forehead hydration level; forehead sebum and cheek hydration levels were not. With increase in cheek sebum, the prevalence of Actinobacteria (p = 0.001)/Propionibacterium (p = 0.002) increased, whereas microbiome diversity decreased (Shannon Index, p = 0.032); this was opposite for other phyla/genera. These trends were reversed for forehead hydration levels. Therefore, the nature and diversity of facial skin microbiome is jointly determined by site-specific lipid and water levels in the stratum corneum.

  20. The applicability and limitations of the geochemical models and tools used in simulating radionuclide behaviour in natural waters. Lessons learned from the Blind Predictive Modelling exercises performed in conjunction with Natural Analogue studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruno, J.; Duro, L.; Grive, M.

    2001-07-01

    One of the key applications of Natural Analogue studies to the Performance Assessment (PA) of nuclear waste disposal has been the possibility to test the geochemical models and tools to be used in describing the migration of radionuclides in a future radioactive waste repository system. To this end, several geochemical modelling testing exercises (commonly denoted as Blind Predictive Modelling), have formed an integral part of Natural Analogue Studies over the last decade. Consequently, we thought that this is a timely occasion to make an evaluation of the experience gained and lessons learnt. We have reviewed, discussed and compared the results obtained from the Blind Prediction Modelling (BPM) exercises carried out within 7 Natural Analogue Studies: Oman, Pocos de Caldas, Cigar Lake, Maqarin, El Berrocal, Oklo and Palmottu. To make this comparison meaningful, we present the main geochemical characteristics of each site in order to highlight the most relevant mineralogical and hydrochemical differences. From the complete list of elements studied at all the investigated sites we have made a selection based on the relevance of a given element from a PA viewpoint and on the frequency this element has been included in the BPM exercises. The elements selected for discussion are: Sr, Ba, Sn, Pb, Se, Ni, Zn, REEs, Th and U. We have based our discussion on the results obtained from the speciation as well as solubility calculations. From the comparison of the results it is concluded that we can differentiate between three element categories: 1. Elements whose geochemical behaviour can be fairly well described by assuming solubility control exerted by pure solid phases of the given element (i.e. Th, U under reducing conditions and U in some sites under oxidising conditions); 2. Elements for which the association to major geochemical components of the system must be considered in order to explain their concentrations in groundwaters (i.e. Sr, Ba, Zn, Se, REEs and U under

  1. Do effects of theoretical training and rewards for energy-efficient behavior persist over time and interact? A natural field experiment on eco-driving in a company fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schall, Dominik L.; Wolf, Menas; Mohnen, Alwine

    2016-01-01

    Increasing energy efficiency is a cornerstone of policy initiatives to tackle climate change and increase corporate sustainability. Convincing people to drive more fuel-efficiently (“eco-driving”) is often an integral part of these approaches, especially in the transport sector. But there is a lack of studies on the long-term persistence and potential interaction of the effects of incentives and training on energy conservation behavior in general and eco-driving behavior in particular. We address this gap with a twelve months long natural field experiment in a logistics company to analyze the time-dependent and potentially interacting effects of rewards and theoretical training for eco-driving on fuel consumption in a real-world setting. We find an immediate reduction of fuel consumption following the introduction of a non-monetary reward and an attenuation of this effect over time. Theoretical eco-driving training shows no effect, neither short-term nor long-term, highlighting the often neglected necessity to include practical training elements. Contrary to common assumptions, the interaction of incentives and theoretical training does not show an additional reduction effect. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of changing engrained behavior and habits, and underline the need for a careful selection and combination of interventions. Policy implications for public and private actors are discussed. - Highlights: • Natural field experiment on training and incentives for fuel-efficient driving. • Focus on long-term and interaction effects over twelve months. • Immediate reduction effect of non-monetary reward that attenuates over time. • Theoretical eco-driving training shows no effect, neither short-term nor long-term. • Interaction of incentives and training shows no additional reduction effect.

  2. Brain responses to biological motion predict treatment outcome in young adults with autism receiving Virtual Reality Social Cognition Training: Preliminary findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Y J Daniel; Allen, Tandra; Abdullahi, Sebiha M; Pelphrey, Kevin A; Volkmar, Fred R; Chapman, Sandra B

    2017-06-01

    Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is characterized by remarkable heterogeneity in social, communication, and behavioral deficits, creating a major barrier in identifying effective treatments for a given individual with ASD. To facilitate precision medicine in ASD, we utilized a well-validated biological motion neuroimaging task to identify pretreatment biomarkers that can accurately forecast the response to an evidence-based behavioral treatment, Virtual Reality-Social Cognition Training (VR-SCT). In a preliminary sample of 17 young adults with high-functioning ASD, we identified neural predictors of change in emotion recognition after VR-SCT. The predictors were characterized by the pretreatment brain activations to biological vs. scrambled motion in the neural circuits that support (a) language comprehension and interpretation of incongruent auditory emotions and prosody, and (b) processing socio-emotional experience and interpersonal affective information, as well as emotional regulation. The predictive value of the findings for individual adults with ASD was supported by regression-based multivariate pattern analyses with cross validation. To our knowledge, this is the first pilot study that shows neuroimaging-based predictive biomarkers for treatment effectiveness in adults with ASD. The findings have potentially far-reaching implications for developing more precise and effective treatments for ASD. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Novel Use of Natural Language Processing (NLP to Predict Suicidal Ideation and Psychiatric Symptoms in a Text-Based Mental Health Intervention in Madrid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. Cook

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural language processing (NLP and machine learning were used to predict suicidal ideation and heightened psychiatric symptoms among adults recently discharged from psychiatric inpatient or emergency room settings in Madrid, Spain. Participants responded to structured mental and physical health instruments at multiple follow-up points. Outcome variables of interest were suicidal ideation and psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12. Predictor variables included structured items (e.g., relating to sleep and well-being and responses to one unstructured question, “how do you feel today?” We compared NLP-based models using the unstructured question with logistic regression prediction models using structured data. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of suicidal ideation were 0.61, 0.56, and 0.57, respectively, compared to 0.73, 0.76, and 0.62 of structured data-based models. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of heightened psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12 ≥ 4 were 0.56, 0.59, and 0.60, respectively, compared to 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85 in structured models. NLP-based models were able to generate relatively high predictive values based solely on responses to a simple general mood question. These models have promise for rapidly identifying persons at risk of suicide or psychological distress and could provide a low-cost screening alternative in settings where lengthy structured item surveys are not feasible.

  4. Novel Use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to Predict Suicidal Ideation and Psychiatric Symptoms in a Text-Based Mental Health Intervention in Madrid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Benjamin L; Progovac, Ana M; Chen, Pei; Mullin, Brian; Hou, Sherry; Baca-Garcia, Enrique

    2016-01-01

    Natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning were used to predict suicidal ideation and heightened psychiatric symptoms among adults recently discharged from psychiatric inpatient or emergency room settings in Madrid, Spain. Participants responded to structured mental and physical health instruments at multiple follow-up points. Outcome variables of interest were suicidal ideation and psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12). Predictor variables included structured items (e.g., relating to sleep and well-being) and responses to one unstructured question, "how do you feel today?" We compared NLP-based models using the unstructured question with logistic regression prediction models using structured data. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of suicidal ideation were 0.61, 0.56, and 0.57, respectively, compared to 0.73, 0.76, and 0.62 of structured data-based models. The PPV, sensitivity, and specificity for NLP-based models of heightened psychiatric symptoms (GHQ-12 ≥ 4) were 0.56, 0.59, and 0.60, respectively, compared to 0.79, 0.79, and 0.85 in structured models. NLP-based models were able to generate relatively high predictive values based solely on responses to a simple general mood question. These models have promise for rapidly identifying persons at risk of suicide or psychological distress and could provide a low-cost screening alternative in settings where lengthy structured item surveys are not feasible.

  5. The predictive validity of the selection battery used for junior leader training within the South African national defence force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Muller

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available The principal objective of the study was to determine the predictive validity of the test battery used for the selection of junior leaders in the South African National Defence Force. A sample of 96 respondents completed certain indices of the SPEEX-Battery as well as the Advanced Ravens Progressive Matrices test. The test results were compared with the course results. Using canonical correlation analysis, a highly significant relationship was found between the independent variables and the dependent variables (r = 0,787; p is less than 0,00005. The predictors with the highest loadings were cognitive ability, conceptualisation, reading comprehension, listening potential, physical stress, and mental stress. Opsomming Die hoofdoelwit van die studie was om die voorspellingsgeldigheid van die toetsbattery vir keuring van junior leiers in die Suid Afrikaanse Nasionale Weermag te evalueer. ’n Steekproef van 96 respondente het sekere indekse van die SPEEX-Battery asook die Advanced Ravens Progressive Matrices toets voltooi. Die toetsresultate is vervolgens vergelyk met die kursusuitslae. Die veranderlikes is aan kanoniese korrelasie-ontleding onderwerp wat ’n betekenisvolle verwantskap opgelewer het tussen die onafhanklike veranderlikes en die afhanklike veranderlikes (r = 0,787; p is kleiner as 0,00005. Die voorspellers met die hoogste ladings was kognitiewe vermoë, konseptualisering, leesbegrip, luisterpotensiaal, fisieke stres en psigiese stres.

  6. Predicting the outcome of a cognitive-behavioral group training for patients with unexplained physical symptoms: a one-year follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zonneveld Lyonne NL

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT is effective for Unexplained Physical Symptoms (UPS, some therapists in clinical practice seem to believe that CBT outcome will diminish if psychiatric comorbidity is present. The result is that patients with a psychiatric comorbidity are redirected from treatment for UPS into treatment for mental health problems. To explore whether this selection and allocation are appropriate, we explored whether CBT outcomes in UPS could be predicted by variables assessed at baseline and used in routine-practice assessments. Methods Patients (n=162 with UPS classified as undifferentiated somatoform disorder or chronic pain disorder were followed up until one year after they had attended a CBT group training. The time-points of the follow-up were at the end of CBT (immediate outcome, three months after CBT (short-term outcome, and one year after CBT (long-term outcome. CBT outcome was measured using the Physical Component Summary of the SF-36, which was the primary outcome measure in the randomized controlled trial that studied effectiveness of the CBT group training. Predictors were: 1. psychological symptoms (global severity score of SCL-90, 2. personality-disorder characteristics (sum of DSM-IV axis II criteria confirmed, 3. psychiatric history (past presence of DSM-IV axis I disorders, and 4. health-related quality of life in the mental domain (mental component summary of SF-36. The effect of this predictor set was explored using hierarchical multiple regression analyses into which these predictors had been entered simultaneously, after control for: a. pretreatment primary outcome scores, b. age, c. gender, d. marital status, and e. employment. Results The predictor set was significant only for short-term CBT outcome, where it explained 15% of the variance. A better outcome was predicted by more psychological symptoms, fewer personality-disorder characteristics, the presence of a psychiatric

  7. MHC class II DRB diversity predicts antigen recognition and is associated with disease severity in California sea lions naturally infected with Leptospira interrogans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo-Whitehouse, Karina; Gulland, Frances; Bowen, Lizabeth

    2018-01-01

    We examined the associations between California sea lion MHC class II DRB (Zaca-DRB) configuration and diversity, and leptospirosis. As Zaca-DRB gene sequences are involved with antigen presentation of bacteria and other extracellular pathogens, we predicted that they would play a role in determining responses to these pathogenic spirochaetes. Specifically, we investigated whether Zaca-DRB diversity (number of genes) and configuration (presence of specific genes) explained differences in disease severity, and whether higher levels of Zaca-DRB diversity predicted the number of specific Leptospira interrogans serovars that a sea lion's serum would react against. We found that serum from diseased sea lions with more Zaca-DRB loci reacted against a wider array of serovars. Specific Zaca-DRB loci were linked to reactions with particular serovars. Interestingly, sea lions with clinical manifestation of leptospirosis that had higher numbers of Zaca-DRB loci were less likely to recover from disease than those with lower diversity, and those that harboured Zaca-DRB.C or –G were 4.5 to 5.3 times more likely to die from leptospirosis, regardless of the infective serovars. We propose that for leptospirosis, a disadvantage of having a wider range of antigen presentation might be increased disease severity due to immunopathology. Ours is the first study to examine the importance of Zaca-DRB diversity for antigen detection and disease severity following natural exposure to infective leptospires.

  8. Predictive value of pretreatment positron emission tomography/computed tomography in patients with newly diagnosed extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Bing; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Cai, Qi-Chun; Fan, Wei; Wang, Xiao-Xiao; Zhang, Xu; Lin, Ze-Xiao; Gao, Yan; Xia, Yun-Fei; Guo, Ying; Cai, Qing-Qing; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Lin, Tong-Yu

    2013-03-01

    The role of (18)Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) is not well established. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic role of the pretreatment maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)) on PET/CT in patients with newly diagnosed ENKL. Among 364 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed ENKL, 81 patients were included and reviewed. The impact of SUV(max) on survival and the relationship between SUV(max) and other clinicopathological parameters were analyzed. The median SUV(max) was 14.6 (range 2.0-45.4). The optimal cutoff value of SUV(max) to predict overall survival (OS) was 15. Patients with high SUV(max) (SUVmax >15) were associated with bulky disease (P KPI, P = 0.046), resistance to primary treatment (P = 0.014), poor OS (P 60 years (P = 0.001), stage III-IV (P = 0.023), SUV(max) >15 (P = 0.020), and bulky disease (>5 cm) (P = 0.002). By using the SUV(max), patients in most subgroups stratified by the KPI or the International Prognostic Index (IPI) were further discriminated in OS with significant statistical difference. Our results suggest the pretreatment SUV(max) is predictive of prognosis in patients with newly diagnosed ENKL. The SUV(max) may provide additional prognostic information for IPI and KPI.

  9. Fibre Length Reduction in Natural Fibre-Reinforced Polymers during Compounding and Injection Moulding—Experiments Versus Numerical Prediction of Fibre Breakage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Albrecht

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available To establish injection-moulded, natural fibre-reinforced polymers in the automotive industry, numerical simulations are important. To include the breakage behaviour of natural fibres in simulations, a profound understanding is necessary. In this study, the length and width reduction of flax and sisal fibre bundles were analysed experimentally during compounding and injection moulding. Further an optical analysis of the fibre breakage behaviour was performed via scanning electron microscopy and during fibre tensile testing with an ultra-high-speed camera. The fibre breakage of flax and sisal during injection moulding was modelled using a micromechanical model. The experimental and simulative results consistently show that during injection moulding the fibre length is not reduced further; the fibre length was already significantly reduced during compounding. For the mechanical properties of a fibre-reinforced composite it is important to overachieve the critical fibre length in the injection moulded component. The micromechanical model could be used to predict the necessary fibre length in the granules.

  10. Human factors in training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutton, J.W.; Brown, W.R.

    1981-01-01

    The Human Factors concept is a focused effort directed at those activities which require human involvement. Training is, by its nature, an activity totally dependent on the Human Factor. This paper identifies several concerns significant to training situations and discusses how Human Factor awareness can increase the quality of learning. Psychology in the training arena is applied Human Factors. Training is a method of communication represented by sender, medium, and receiver. Two-thirds of this communications model involves the human element directly

  11. Functional Strength Training and Movement Performance Therapy for Upper Limb Recovery Early Poststroke—Efficacy, Neural Correlates, Predictive Markers, and Cost-Effectiveness: FAST-INdiCATE Trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan M. Hunter

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundVariation in physiological deficits underlying upper limb paresis after stroke could influence how people recover and to which physical therapy they best respond.ObjectivesTo determine whether functional strength training (FST improves upper limb recovery more than movement performance therapy (MPT. To identify: (a neural correlates of response and (b whether pre-intervention neural characteristics predict response.DesignExplanatory investigations within a randomised, controlled, observer-blind, and multicentre trial. Randomisation was computer-generated and concealed by an independent facility until baseline measures were completed. Primary time point was outcome, after the 6-week intervention phase. Follow-up was at 6 months after stroke.ParticipantsWith some voluntary muscle contraction in the paretic upper limb, not full dexterity, when recruited up to 60 days after an anterior cerebral circulation territory stroke.InterventionsConventional physical therapy (CPT plus either MPT or FST for up to 90 min-a-day, 5 days-a-week for 6 weeks. FST was “hands-off” progressive resistive exercise cemented into functional task training. MPT was “hands-on” sensory/facilitation techniques for smooth and accurate movement.OutcomesThe primary efficacy measure was the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT. Neural measures: fractional anisotropy (FA corpus callosum midline; asymmetry of corticospinal tracts FA; and resting motor threshold (RMT of motor-evoked potentials.AnalysisCovariance models tested ARAT change from baseline. At outcome: correlation coefficients assessed relationship between change in ARAT and neural measures; an interaction term assessed whether baseline neural characteristics predicted response.Results288 Participants had: mean age of 72.2 (SD 12.5 years and mean ARAT 25.5 (18.2. For 240 participants with ARAT at baseline and outcome the mean change was 9.70 (11.72 for FST + CPT and 7.90 (9.18 for MPT

  12. Technical Training: Technical Training Seminar

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    TECHNICAL TRAINING Monique Duval tel. 74924 technical.training@cern.ch Monday 9 February 2004 From 10:00 to 12:00 - IT Auditorium - bldg. 31, 3rd floor ANSOFT High-Frequency Seminar David Prestaux, Application Engineer, ANSOFT F-78535 BUC, France This Technical Training seminar will present two Ansoft application products: Ansoft HFSS and Ansoft Designer. Ansoft HFSS makes use of the Finite Element Method (FEM) to calculate field solutions from first principles. It can accurately predict all high-frequency behaviours such as dispersion, mode conversion, and losses due to materials and radiation. Ansoft Designer is a suite of design tools to fully integrate high-frequency, physics-based electromagnetic simulations into a seamless system-level simulation environment. Ansoft Designer uses a simple interface to give complete control over every design task, by a method allowing multiple solvers, Solver on Demand. • Introduction • Overview of the Ansoft Total solution • Ansoft HFSS 9...

  13. Short-term follow-up of exercise training program and beta-blocker treatment on quality of life in dogs with naturally acquired chronic mitral valve disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Marcondes-Santos

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate the effects of carvedilol treatment and a regimen of supervised aerobic exercise training on quality of life and other clinical, echocardiographic, and biochemical variables in a group of client-owned dogs with chronic mitral valve disease (CMVD. Ten healthy dogs (control and 36 CMVD dogs were studied, with the latter group divided into 3 subgroups. In addition to conventional treatment (benazepril, 0.3-0.5 mg/kg once a day, and digoxin, 0.0055 mg/kg twice daily, 13 dogs received exercise training (subgroup I; 10.3±2.1 years, 10 dogs received carvedilol (0.3 mg/kg twice daily and exercise training (subgroup II; 10.8±1.7 years, and 13 dogs received only carvedilol (subgroup III; 10.9±2.1 years. All drugs were administered orally. Clinical, laboratory, and Doppler echocardiographic variables were evaluated at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. Exercise training was conducted from months 3-6. The mean speed rate during training increased for both subgroups I and II (ANOVA, P>0.001, indicating improvement in physical conditioning at the end of the exercise period. Quality of life and functional class was improved for all subgroups at the end of the study. The N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP level increased in subgroup I from baseline to 3 months, but remained stable after training introduction (from 3 to 6 months. For subgroups II and III, NT-proBNP levels remained stable during the entire study. No difference was observed for the other variables between the three evaluation periods. The combination of carvedilol or exercise training with conventional treatment in CMVD dogs led to improvements in quality of life and functional class. Therefore, light walking in CMVD dogs must be encouraged.

  14. Private Training Providers: Their Characteristics and Training Activities. Support Document

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Roger; Simons, Michele; McCarthy, Carmel

    2006-01-01

    This document was produced by the authors based on their research for the report, "Private Training Providers: Their Characteristics and Training Activities," [ED495181] and is an added resource for further information. That study examined the nature of the training activity of private registered training organisations (RTOs) offered to…

  15. Can a Three-Day Training Focusing on the Nature of Science and Science Practices as They Relate to Mind in the Making Make a Difference in Preschool Teachers' Self-Efficacy Engaging in Science Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meacham, Colleen

    As technology and our world understanding develop, we will need citizens who are able to ask and answer questions that have not been thought of yet. Currently, high school and college graduates entering the workforce demonstrate a gap in their ability to develop unique solutions and fill the current technology-driven jobs. To address this gap, science needs to be prioritized early in children's lives. The focus of this research was to analyze a science training program that would help pre-school teachers better understand Mind in the Making life skills, the nature of science, science practices, and improve their self-efficacy integrating science education into their classrooms and curriculum. Seventy-one teachers enrolled in two three-day, professional development trainings that were conducted over three, five-hour sessions approximately one month apart... During that training the teachers learned hands-on activities for young children that introduced life and physical science content. They were also given the task of developing and implementing a science-based lesson for their students and then analyzing it with other participants. The information from the lesson plans was collected for analysis. After the last training the teachers were given a pre/post retrospective survey to measure effective outcomes. The results from the lesson plans and surveys indicate that the trainings helped improve the teachers' understanding of Mind in the Making, the nature of science, and science practices. The results also show that the teachers felt more comfortable integrating science education into their classrooms and curriculum.

  16. Combining electronic structure and many-body theory with large databases: A method for predicting the nature of 4 f states in Ce compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herper, H. C.; Ahmed, T.; Wills, J. M.; Di Marco, I.; Björkman, T.; Iuşan, D.; Balatsky, A. V.; Eriksson, O.

    2017-08-01

    Recent progress in materials informatics has opened up the possibility of a new approach to accessing properties of materials in which one assays the aggregate properties of a large set of materials within the same class in addition to a detailed investigation of each compound in that class. Here we present a large scale investigation of electronic properties and correlated magnetism in Ce-based compounds accompanied by a systematic study of the electronic structure and 4 f -hybridization function of a large body of Ce compounds. We systematically study the electronic structure and 4 f -hybridization function of a large body of Ce compounds with the goal of elucidating the nature of the 4 f states and their interrelation with the measured Kondo energy in these compounds. The hybridization function has been analyzed for more than 350 data sets (being part of the IMS database) of cubic Ce compounds using electronic structure theory that relies on a full-potential approach. We demonstrate that the strength of the hybridization function, evaluated in this way, allows us to draw precise conclusions about the degree of localization of the 4 f states in these compounds. The theoretical results are entirely consistent with all experimental information, relevant to the degree of 4 f localization for all investigated materials. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis of the electronic structure and the hybridization function allows us to make precise statements about Kondo correlations in these systems. The calculated hybridization functions, together with the corresponding density of states, reproduce the expected exponential behavior of the observed Kondo temperatures and prove a consistent trend in real materials. This trend allows us to predict which systems may be correctly identified as Kondo systems. A strong anticorrelation between the size of the hybridization function and the volume of the systems has been observed. The information entropy for this set of systems is

  17. 'Natural background' soil water repellency in conifer forests of the north-western USA: Its prediction and relationship to wildfire occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, S.H.; Woods, S.W.; Martin, D.A.; Casimiro, M.

    2009-01-01

    Soils under a wide range of vegetation types exhibit water repellency following the passage of a fire. This is viewed by many as one of the main causes for accelerated post-fire runoff and soil erosion and it has often been assumed that strong soil water repellency present after wildfire is fire-induced. However, high levels of repellency have also been reported under vegetation types not affected by fire, and the question arises to what degree the water repellency observed at burnt sites actually results from fire. This study aimed at determining 'natural background' water repellency in common coniferous forest types in the north-western USA. Mature or semi-mature coniferous forest sites (n = 81), which showed no evidence of recent fires and had at least some needle cast cover, were sampled across six states. After careful removal of litter and duff at each site, soil water repellency was examined in situ at the mineral soil surface using the Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) method for three sub-sites, followed by collecting near-surface mineral soil layer samples (0-3 cm depth). Following air-drying, samples were further analyzed for repellency using WDPT and contact angle (??sl) measurements. Amongst other variables examined were dominant tree type, ground vegetation, litter and duff layer depth, slope angle and aspect, elevation, geology, and soil texture, organic carbon content and pH. 'Natural background' water repellency (WDPT > 5 s) was detected in situ and on air-dry samples at 75% of all sites examined irrespective of dominant tree species (Pinus ponderosa, Pinus contorta, Picea engelmanii and Pseudotsuga menziesii). These findings demonstrate that the soil water repellency commonly observed in these forest types following burning is not necessarily the result of recent fire but can instead be a natural characteristic. The notion of a low background water repellency being typical for long-unburnt conifer forest soils of the north-western USA is

  18. Prediction of Drug Attitude in Adolescents Based on Family Training Risk Factors for Mental Health in Society: Designing a Model for Prevention of Addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Parsian

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Substance abuse is one of the worst humanitarian issues in recent years which undermines the base and foundations of human society. Its prevention requires the application of multiple theories in various disciplines together with diverse methods and techniques. Several studies have been emphasized on the role of personal and familial variables as risk factors for substance use . However, this study was done in order to predict drug addiction attitude in adolescents according to the family training risk factors to prevent substance abuse and to design a model for the prevention of addiction .   Methods: This study is a descriptive and survey research performed on a sample of 373 male and female students selected randomly among the five high school students in Ghaemshahr city. Then a questionnaire including parenting styles, attitude to addiction and social problem solving skill as well as a socioeconomic questionnaire distributed among the students. For data analysis, the statistical method of descriptive statistics and path analysis has been used.   Results: Results of this study have shown that the component of parenting styles has a direct and positive impact on attitudes to drug addiction. In addition, there was a direct and positive non-significant relationship between the adaptive social problem solving skills and attitude to drug addiction and also direct and negative significant relationship between the non-adaptive social problem solving skills on this attitudes. A direct and negative significant relationship was also seen between parenting styles and attitude to drug addiction.   Conclusions: Based on the results of present study, the components of parenting styles have a direct and negative impact on attitudes to drug addiction. Also there is a direct and significant relationship between the components of non-adaptive social problem solving skills and the variable of social attitude in adolescents . But the

  19. Simultaneous prediction of internal and external aerodynamic and thermal flow fields of a natural-draft cooling tower in a cross-wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radosavljevic, D.; Spalding, D.B.

    1989-01-01

    The quantitative simulation of cooling-tower performance is useful to designers, enabling them to make optimal choices regarding: the type, volume and shape of the packing (i.e. fill); and the shape and size of the tower. In order to simulate performance realistically, non-uniformities of distribution of water and air mass-flow rates across the tower radius must be taken into account. This necessitates at least 2D modeling; and in order to establish the influence of a cross-wind, boundary conditions must be far away from the tower inlet and outlet, and 3D modeling must be performed. This paper is concerned with large wet natural-draught cooling towers of the type used in many steam power stations for cooling large quantities of water by direct contact with the atmosphere. The aim of the present work has been to improve the procedures of calculation by using numerical integration of the heat and mass transfer equations, and to connect internal and external aerodynamics thus enabling wind influence to be studied. It permits predicting the performance of a proposed design of the tower over a range of operating conditions. PHOENICS, a general-purpose computer code for fluid-flow simulation, is used to provide numerical solutions to governing differential equations

  20. Strength Training: For Overall Fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy Lifestyle Fitness Strength training is an important part of an overall fitness program. Here's what strength training can do for ... is a key component of overall health and fitness for everyone. Lean muscle mass naturally diminishes with ...

  1. Lithuania training needs analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-12-01

    The present assessment of training needs in the Lithuanian natural gas sector is one of a total of four programmes on which Danish Oil and Natural Gas (DONG) and Lithuanian Gas (LG) cooperate. DONG's contribution is financed by the Danish Foreign Ministry. Long-term Objective is enhancement of the natural gas sector in Lithuania for efficient, cost-effective and environmentally responsible energy supply and utilization, in accordance with international standards. Immediate Objective is to establish a basis of competence in the Lithuanian Gas Sector, manage the modernization process effectively, and develop the involved human resources to the required performance level. The strategy for training in the Lithuanian natural gas sector proposed by this report integrates recommendations under three main headings: Six programmes of training and development. Strengthening of the institutional framework and the system for training. Upgrading of training capacity. The six programmes comprise: Legislation and Educational Planning. Management Development. Economy. Marketing and Sales. Supervisory Skills Development. Training Skills Development. Management and Specialists' Workshops on Technology. Following organisation for implementation of recommendations is proposed: Steering Board. Advisory Board. Coordination Group. Project Management Group. Group of Lithuanian Specialists. Group of Advisers. Short-term Consultants/Teachers. Lithuanian Consultants/Teachers. The project is envisaged to be implemented in carefully timed phases allowing for coordination between management workshops, training programmes and revision work regarding the institutional framework for training and the training system. (EG)

  2. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. Language Training Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place: from 1st March to 25 June 2004 (2 weeks break at Easter). These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow: tel. 72957.

  3. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place: from 1st March to 25 June 2004 (2 weeks break at Easter). These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow: tel. 72957.

  4. Analysis of antibodies to newly described Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens supports MSPDBL2 as a predicted target of naturally acquired immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetteh, Kevin K A; Osier, Faith H A; Salanti, Ali; Kamuyu, Gathoni; Drought, Laura; Failly, Marilyne; Martin, Christophe; Marsh, Kevin; Conway, David J

    2013-10-01

    Prospective studies continue to identify malaria parasite genes with particular patterns of polymorphism which indicate they may be under immune selection, and the encoded proteins require investigation. Sixteen new recombinant protein reagents were designed to characterize three such polymorphic proteins expressed in Plasmodium falciparum schizonts and merozoites: MSPDBL1 (also termed MSP3.4) and MSPDBL2 (MSP3.8), which possess Duffy binding-like (DBL) domains, and SURFIN4.2, encoded by a member of the surface-associated interspersed (surf) multigene family. After testing the antigenicities of these reagents by murine immunization and parasite immunofluorescence, we analyzed naturally acquired antibody responses to the antigens in two cohorts in coastal Kenya in which the parasite was endemic (Chonyi [n = 497] and Ngerenya [n = 461]). As expected, the prevalence and levels of serum antibodies increased with age. We then investigated correlations with subsequent risk of clinical malaria among children <11 years of age during 6 months follow-up surveillance. Antibodies to the polymorphic central region of MSPDBL2 were associated with reduced risk of malaria in both cohorts, with statistical significance remaining for the 3D7 allelic type after adjustment for individuals' ages in years and antibody reactivity to whole-schizont extract (Chonyi, risk ratio, 0.51, and 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28 to 0.93; Ngerenya, risk ratio, 0.38, and 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.82). For the MSPDBL1 Palo Alto allelic-type antigen, there was a protective association in one cohort (Ngerenya, risk ratio, 0.53, and 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.89), whereas the other antigens showed no protective associations after adjustment. These findings support the prediction that antibodies to the polymorphic region of MSPDBL2 contribute to protective immunity.

  5. Training warning flags

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard C.

    2003-01-01

    Problems in accredited training programmes at US nuclear stations have resulted in several programmes having their accreditation status designated as probationary. A limited probationary period allows time for problem resolution before the programmes are again reviewed by the National Nuclear Accrediting Board. A careful study of these problems has resulted in the identification of several 'Training Warning Flags' that singularly, or in concert, may indicate or predict degraded training programme effectiveness. These training warning flags have been used by several US nuclear stations as a framework for self-assessments, as a reference in making changes to training programmes, and as a tool in considering student and management feedback on training activities. Further analysis and consideration of the training warning flags has developed precursors for each of the training warning flags. Although more subjective than the training warning flags, the precursors may represent early indicators of factors that may lead to or contribute to degraded training programme effectiveness. Used as evaluative tools, the training warning flags and the precursors may help identify areas for improvements in training programmes and help prioritize training programme improvement efforts. (author)

  6. Can psychological well-being scales and hormone levels be used to predict acute performance of anaerobic training tasks in elite female volleyball players?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielgo-Ayuso, Juan; Zourdos, Michael C; Clemente-Suárez, Vicente J; Calleja-González, Julio; Shipherd, Amber M

    2017-10-15

    The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between pre-training psychological well-being assessment scales (General Health Questionnaire-28-GHQ-28, Competitive State Anxiety Inventory-2-CSAI-2, Sport Competition Anxiety Test-SCAT, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-S-STAI-S, Oviedo Sleep Questionnaire-OSQ and Psychological Characteristics Related to Sport Performance-PCSP), and pre-training stress hormone concentrations (cortisol-C, total testosterone-TT, free testosterone-FT, adrenocorticotropic hormone-ACTH and testosterone/cortisol-T/C ratios), on acute neuromuscular performance (ANP) in female volleyballers. Forty elite female volleyballers (27±4yrs.; 178.3±8.5cm; 67.9±7.2kg) participated. Bivariate correlations were performed between psychological assessments and hormone levels with ANP. All psychological scales presented at least one significant (pvolleyballers than pre-training stress hormone concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Battling bias : Effects of training and training context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poos, J.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Janssen, C.P.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates whether cognitive bias in judgment and decision making can be reduced by training, and whether the effects are affected by the nature of the training environment. Theory suggests that biases can be overcome by training in critical reflective thinking. In addition, applied

  8. Battling Bias: Effects of Training and Training Context

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poos, Jackie; van den Bosch, Karel; Janssen, C.P.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates whether cognitive bias in judgment and decision making can be reduced by training, and whether the effects are affected by the nature of the training environment. Theory suggests that biases can be overcome by training in critical reflective thinking. In addition, applied

  9. Language Training: French Training

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 April to 02 July 2004. These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz: Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 April to 02 July 2004. This course is designed for people with a good level of s...

  10. Language Training: French Training

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 April to 02 July 2004. These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz: Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 April to 02 July 2004. This course is designed for people with a good level...

  11. The Hinton train disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smiley, A M

    1990-10-01

    In February of 1986 a head-on collision occurred between a freight train and a passenger train in western Canada killing 23 people and causing over $30 million of damage. A Commission of Inquiry appointed by the Canadian government concluded that human error was the major reason for the collision. This report discusses the factors contributing to the human error: mainly poor work-rest schedules, the monotonous nature of the train driving task, insufficient information about train movements, and the inadequate backup systems in case of human error.

  12. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  13. Temporal associations between individual changes in hormones, training motivation and physical performance in elite and non-elite trained men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crewther, B T; Carruthers, J; Kilduff, L P; Sanctuary, C E; Cook, C J

    2016-09-01

    To advance our understanding of the hormonal contribution to athletic performance, we examined the temporal associations between individual changes in testosterone (T) and/or cortisol (C) concentrations, training motivation and physical performance in elite and non-elite trained men. Two male cohorts classified as elites (n = 12) and non-elites (n = 12) completed five testing sessions over a six-week period. The athletes were tested for salivary T, C, T/C ratio, self-perceived training motivation, countermovement jump (CMJ) height and isometric mid-thigh pull peak force (IMTP PF), after which an actual training workout was performed. The elite men reported higher motivation to train and they produced greater CMJ height overall, whereas the non-elites had higher pooled T levels (p motivation in the elite men only (p = 0.033), but the hormonal and motivation measures did not predict CMJ height or IMTP PF in either group. The monitoring of elite and non-elite men across a short training block revealed differences in T levels, motivation and lower-body power, which may reflect training and competitive factors in each group. Despite having lower T levels, the elite athletes showed better linkage between pre-training T fluctuations and subsequent motivation to train. The nature of the performance tests (i.e. single repetition trials) could partly explain the lack of an association with the hormonal and motivational measures.

  14. Abramovo Counterterrorism Training Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayes, Christopher M.; Ross, Larry; Kaldenbach, Karen Yvonne; Estigneev, Yuri; Murievav, Andrey

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. government has been assisting the Russian Federation (RF) Ministry of Defense (MOD) for many years with nuclear weapons transportation security (NWTS) through the provision of specialized guard escort railcars and cargo railcars with integrated physical security and communication systems, armored transport vehicles, and armored escort vehicles. As a natural continuation of the NWTS program, a partnership has been formed to construct a training center that will provide counterterrorism training to personnel in all branches of the RF MOD. The Abramovo Counterterrorism Training Center (ACTC) is a multinational, multiagency project with funding from Canada, RF and the U.S. Departments of Defense and Energy. ACTC will be a facility where MOD personnel can conduct basic through advanced training in various security measures to protect Category IA material against the threat of terrorist attack. The training will enhance defense-in-depth principles by integrating MOD guard force personnel into the overall physical protection systems and improving their overall response time and neutralization capabilities. The ACTC project includes infrastructure improvements, renovation of existing buildings, construction of new buildings, construction of new training facilities, and provision of training and other equipment. Classroom training will be conducted in a renovated training building. Basic and intermediate training will be conducted on three different security training areas where various obstacles and static training devices will be constructed. The central element of ACTC, where advanced training will be held, is the 'autodrome,' a 3 km road along which various terrorist events can be staged to challenge MOD personnel in realistic and dynamic nuclear weapons transportation scenarios. This paper will address the ACTC project elements and the vision for training development and integrating this training into actual nuclear weapons transportation operations.

  15. [The state's physics examinations for medical students and the construction of a natural science basis for academic medical training between 1865-1880].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Lieburg, M J

    1995-01-01

    Betweem 1865, when the new Dutch Health Acts introduced the legal monopoly of the academic medical profession, and 1879, when a new law for higher education provided the basis for the integration of the non-academic teaching of medicine within the universities, non-academic students could pass state medical examinations in order to become a physician. In this article I studied in detail the first phase of this examination route, when students were questioned about their knowledge of mathematics, physics, chemistry and the life sciences. The state commissions responsible for taking these examinations have certainly played an important role in the process of the introduction of scientific medicine into the universities as well as the introduction of the sciences into secondary schools, preparing scholars for academic medical training. Moreover, because scientists, physicians and secondary school teachers participated together in these commissions, the science examination boards linked the several educational echelons and divisions in science and medicine concerned with this process of transformation of the medical professions and medical science in the 1860s and 1870s.

  16. Predicting unpredictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.

    2018-04-01

    Analysts and markets have struggled to predict a number of phenomena, such as the rise of natural gas, in US energy markets over the past decade or so. Research shows the challenge may grow because the industry — and consequently the market — is becoming increasingly volatile.

  17. Natural uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ammerich, Marc; Frot, Patricia; Gambini, Denis-Jean; Gauron, Christine; Moureaux, Patrick; Herbelet, Gilbert; Lahaye, Thierry; Pihet, Pascal; Rannou, Alain

    2014-08-01

    This sheet belongs to a collection which relates to the use of radionuclides essentially in unsealed sources. Its goal is to gather on a single document the most relevant information as well as the best prevention practices to be implemented. These sheets are made for the persons in charge of radiation protection: users, radioprotection-skill persons, labor physicians. Each sheet treats of: 1 - the radio-physical and biological properties; 2 - the main uses; 3 - the dosimetric parameters; 4 - the measurement; 5 - the protection means; 6 - the areas delimitation and monitoring; 7 - the personnel classification, training and monitoring; 8 - the effluents and wastes; 9 - the authorization and declaration administrative procedures; 10 - the transport; and 11 - the right conduct to adopt in case of incident or accident. This sheet deals specifically with natural uranium

  18. Prediction of crack propagation and arrest in X100 natural gas transmission pipelines with a strain rate dependent damage model (SRDD). Part 2: Large scale pipe models with gas depressurisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomidis, F.; Shterenlikht, A.; Truman, C.E.

    2014-01-01

    Part 1 of this paper described a specimen for the measurement of high strain rate flow and fracture properties of pipe material and for tuning a strain rate dependent damage model (SRDD). In part 2 the tuned SRDD model is used for the simulation of axial crack propagation and arrest in X100 natural gas pipelines. Linear pressure drop model was adopted behind the crack tip, and an exponential gas depressurisation model was used ahead of the crack tip. The model correctly predicted the crack initiation (burst) pressure, the crack speed and the crack arrest length. Strain rates between 1000 s −1 and 3000 s −1 immediately ahead of the crack tip are predicted, giving a strong indication that a strain rate material model is required for the structural integrity assessment of the natural gas pipelines. The models predict the stress triaxiality of about 0.65 for at least 1 m ahead of the crack tip, gradually dropping to 0.5 at distances of about 5–7 m ahead of the crack tip. Finally, the models predicted a linear drop in crack tip opening angle (CTOA) from about 11−12° at the onset of crack propagation down to 7−8° at crack arrest. Only the lower of these values agree with those reported in the literature for quasi-static measurements. This discrepancy might indicate substantial strain rate dependence in CTOA. - Highlights: • Finite element simulations of 3 burst tests of X100 pipes are detailed. • Strain rate dependent damage model, tuned on small scale X100 samples, was used. • The models correctly predict burst pressure, crack speed and crack arrest length. • The model predicts a crack length dependent critical CTOA. • The strain rate dependent damage model is verified as mesh independent

  19. [Validation of the modified algorithm for predicting host susceptibility to viruses taking into account susceptibility parameters of primary target cell cultures and natural immunity factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukov, V A; Shishkina, L N; Safatov, A S; Sergeev, A A; P'iankov, O V; Petrishchenko, V A; Zaĭtsev, B N; Toporkov, V S; Sergeev, A N; Nesvizhskiĭ, Iu V; Vorob'ev, A A

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents results of testing a modified algorithm for predicting virus ID50 values in a host of interest by extrapolation from a model host taking into account immune neutralizing factors and thermal inactivation of the virus. The method was tested for A/Aichi/2/68 influenza virus in SPF Wistar rats, SPF CD-1 mice and conventional ICR mice. Each species was used as a host of interest while the other two served as model hosts. Primary lung and trachea cells and secretory factors of the rats' airway epithelium were used to measure parameters needed for the purpose of prediction. Predicted ID50 values were not significantly different (p = 0.05) from those experimentally measured in vivo. The study was supported by ISTC/DARPA Agreement 450p.

  20. Applications of NASA and NOAA Satellite Observations by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Response to Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molthan, Andrew L.; Burks, Jason E.; McGrath, Kevin M.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2012-01-01

    NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center supports the transition of unique NASA and NOAA research activities to the operational weather forecasting community. SPoRT emphasizes real-time analysis and prediction out to 48 hours. SPoRT partners with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and National Centers to improve current products, demonstrate future satellite capabilities and explore new data assimilation techniques. Recently, the SPoRT Center has been involved in several activities related to disaster response, in collaboration with NOAA s National Weather Service, NASA s Applied Sciences Disasters Program, and other partners.

  1. Training management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, H.D.

    1986-01-01

    The following topics to be covered in this report are: Design principles for training programmes; training methods, materials and facilities; national and international organization; training assessment and documentation; relation between supplier and customer, licensing requirements and practices. (orig.)

  2. Supervisor's role in training programs as a manager of learning program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available According to the training literature, a supervisor's role in training programs has two major elements: supervisor support and supervisor communication. The ability of supervisors to play effective roles in training programs may increase employees' motivation to learn. The nature of this relationship is interesting, but the role of supervisor's role as a predicting variable is less emphasized in a training program models. Therefore, this study was conducted to examine the effect of supervisor's role in training programs on motivation to learn using 152 usable questionnaires gathered from non-academic employees who have worked in a technological based public university, Malaysia. The outcomes of stepwise regression analysis showed that the supervisor support and supervisor communication significantly associated with motivation to learn. Statistically, this result demonstrates that supervisor's role in training programs does act as an important predictor of motivation to learn in the organizational sample. In addition, discussion, implication and conclusion are elaborated.

  3. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Document Server

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an 'application for training' form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place from 04 October 2004 to 11 February 2005 (3 weeks break at Christmas). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Oral Expression This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to practise and maintain their speaking skills while extending their vocabulary. There will be approximately 8 participants in...

  4. Limitations of experiments performed in artificially made OECD standard soils for predicting cadmium, lead and zinc toxicity towards organisms living in natural soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sydow, Mateusz; Chrzanowski, Lukasz; Cedergreen, Nina

    2017-01-01

    . ERMs performed better than FIAMs. Pearson's r for log10-transformed total metal based EC50s values (ERM) ranged from 0.25 to 0.74, suggesting a general correlation between predicted and measured values. Yet, root-mean-square-error (RMSE) ranged from 0.16 to 0.87 and was either smaller or comparable...

  5. Prediction of the critical point and the dew- and bubble-point curves fo natural gases. Tennen gas no rinkaiten oyobi roten futten kyokusen no suisan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Endo, T. (Hitachi, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)); Arai, D.; Uematsu, M. (Keio University, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Science and Technology)

    1993-02-25

    Related to the natural gas transport by pipeline, etc., the critical point, dew point and bubble point of natural gas were presumed by calculation through equation of state for determining the exact thermophysical values. The natural gas is multi-component mixed fluid which is represented by methane as a representative component. It considerably differs in composition by its place of origin. Because the conventional method was complicated in process for thermodynamically determining the most stable composition of phases, algorithm of phasic equilibrium was applied by the equation of state which used the discrimination method by Nitta, et al. for the therodynamic stability of phases. The method by Michelsen was applied to the flash calculation, and figuration of both dew point and bubble point curves, while that by Heidemann, et al. was done to the critical point calculation. Peng-Robinson's was applied to an equation of state. To start the calculation, the constant of seven two-component systems the main component of which was methane was determined as a function of temperature based on the actually measured gas/liquid equilibrium value. Then, possibility of calculatively presuming the thermophysical values was shown through comparison of the actually measured values with those obtained by applying the present method to the above systems. Finally, the presumption was made for the natural gas which differed in place of origin. 17 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.

  6. A case study of interior low-frequency noise from box-shaped bridge girders induced by running trains: Its mechanism, prediction and countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xun; Li, Xiaozhen; Hao, Hong; Wang, Dangxiong; Li, Yadong

    2016-04-01

    A side effect of high-speed railway and urban rail transit systems is the associated vibration and noise. Since the use of concrete viaducts is predominant in railway construction due to scarce land resources, low-frequency (20-200 Hz) structure-radiated noise from concrete bridges is a principal concern. Although it is the most commonly used bridge type, the mechanism of noise emission from box-shaped bridge girders when subjected to impact forces from moving trains, which sounds like beating a drum, has not been well studied. In this study, a field measurement was first made on a simply-supported box-shaped bridge to record the acceleration of the slabs and the associated sound pressures induced by running trains. These data indicated that a significant beat-wave noise occurred in the box-shaped cavity when the train speed was around 340 km/h, which arose from the interference between two sound waves of 75.0 Hz and 78.8 Hz. The noise leakage from the bridge expansion joint was serious and resulted in obvious noise pollution near the bridge once the beat-wave noise was generated in the cavity. The dominant frequency of the interior noise at 75.0 Hz was confirmed from the spectrum of the data and the modal analysis results, and originated from the peak vibration of the top slab due to resonance and the first-order vertical acoustic mode, which led to cavity resonance, amplifying the corresponding noise. The three-dimensional acoustic modes and local vibration modes of the slab were calculated by using the finite element method. A simplified vehicle-track-bridge coupling vibration model was then developed to calculate the wheel-rail interaction force in a frequency range of 20-200 Hz. Numerical simulations using the boundary element method confirmed the cavity resonance effect and the numerical results agreed well with the data. Based on the calibrated numerical model, three noise reduction measures, i.e., adding a horizontal baffle in the interior cavity, narrowing

  7. NetMHCIIpan-2.0 - Improved pan-specific HLA-DR predictions using a novel concurrent alignment and weight optimization training procedure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Justesen, Sune Frederik Lamdahl; Lund, Ole

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Binding of peptides to Major Histocompatibility class II (MHC-II) molecules play a central role in governing responses of the adaptive immune system. MHC-II molecules sample peptides from the extracellular space allowing the immune system to detect the presence of foreign microbes fro...... be obtained for all alleles with know protein sequence and the method can benefit by including data in the training from alleles even where only few binders are known. The method and benchmark data are available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-2.0....

  8. Study for engine conversion from gasoline to natural gas by using the two-zone combustion predictive model; Estudio de la conversion del motor de gasolina a gas natural mediante modelo de combustion predictivo de dos zonas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henry, Espinoza; Moreno, Jesus; Perez, Andres [Universidad de Oriente, Puerto la Cruz (Venezuela). Dept. de Mecanica; Baduy, Franklin [Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas (Venezuela). Dept. de Termoenergetica

    1995-07-01

    Great scale conversion of automation engines is a policy used by many countries as a strategy to save gasoline. Previous studies on the effects that this transformation can have over the engine performance are required for the implantation of this type of conversion. also, modifications in components and tuning for each engine have to be analyzed. This paper studies the effect of the conversion from gasoline to natural gas over the engine output, indicate mean pressure, combustion rate etc. It also analyze how to find the starting angle and the best air/fuel ratio for a specific engine, using a two-zone combustion model. (author)

  9. The predictive validity of naturally acquired delayed-type hypersensitivity to leishmanin in resistance to Leishmania major-associated cutaneous leishmaniasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Salah, Afif; Louzir, Hechmi; Chlif, Sadok; Mokni, Mourad; Zaatour, Amor; Raouene, Mohamed; Ismail, Riadh Ben; Dellagi, Koussay

    2005-12-01

    To accurately quantify the different outcomes of Leishmania major infection and to evaluate the fraction of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) cases prevented by naturally acquired leishmanin skin test (LST) reactivity, a cohort of 470 children was followed up in 2 endemic foci, Remada and Dhiba, in southern Tunisia. During May 1997, before the ZCL emergence season, LST was performed, and results were reassessed 12 months later. Active case detection during the ZCL emergence season showed a high incidence of ZCL: 57.0% in Remada and 13.7% in Dhiba. The preventive fraction of ZCL conferred by LST reactivity increased proportionally with the reaction size before the emergence season, revealing a dose-response effect of approximately 70%. In addition, asymptomatic L. major infection appeared to be a significant form of natural immunization, particularly in the context of relatively low transmission. These findings may help in the design and evaluation of vaccines.

  10. Language Training - French Training

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2008-01-01

    General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 January to 3rd April 2009. These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Nathalie Dumeaux : Tel. 78144. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 January to 3rd April 2009. This course is designed for people with a good level of spoken French. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF For further information and registration, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Nathalie Dumeaux : Tel. 78144. Nathalie Dumeaux Tel. 78144 mailto:nathalie.dumeaux@cern.ch

  11. Language Training - French Training

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2009-01-01

    General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 January to 3rd April 2009. These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Nathalie Dumeaux : Tel. 78144. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 January to 3rd April 2009. This course is designed for people with a good level of spoken French. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF For further information and registration, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Nathalie Dumeaux : Tel. 78144. Nathalie Dumeaux Tel. 78144 mailto:nathalie.dumeaux@cern.ch

  12. Training organisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrlova, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Slovenske elektrarne considers a specific training and education of experienced experts to be a key issue. The company gradually undergoes quite demanding change in the field of education and training of the nuclear power plants staff. We have an ambitious vision - to create one of the best training organisations in Europe by the means of systematic approach to the training. (author)

  13. Linear zonal atmospheric prediction for adaptive optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Patrick C.; Rhoadarmer, Troy A.; Coy, Hanna A.; Angel, J. Roger P.; Lloyd-Hart, Michael

    2000-07-01

    We compare linear zonal predictors of atmospheric turbulence for adaptive optics. Zonal prediction has the possible advantage of being able to interpret and utilize wind-velocity information from the wavefront sensor better than modal prediction. For simulated open-loop atmospheric data for a 2- meter 16-subaperture AO telescope with 5 millisecond prediction and a lookback of 4 slope-vectors, we find that Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule training of linear nets and Back- Propagation training of non-linear multilayer neural networks is quite slow, getting stuck on plateaus or in local minima. Recursive Least Squares training of linear predictors is two orders of magnitude faster and it also converges to the solution with global minimum error. We have successfully implemented Amari's Adaptive Natural Gradient Learning (ANGL) technique for a linear zonal predictor, which premultiplies the Delta-Rule gradients with a matrix that orthogonalizes the parameter space and speeds up the training by two orders of magnitude, like the Recursive Least Squares predictor. This shows that the simple Widrow-Hoff Delta-Rule's slow convergence is not a fluke. In the case of bright guidestars, the ANGL, RLS, and standard matrix-inversion least-squares (MILS) algorithms all converge to the same global minimum linear total phase error (approximately 0.18 rad2), which is only approximately 5% higher than the spatial phase error (approximately 0.17 rad2), and is approximately 33% lower than the total 'naive' phase error without prediction (approximately 0.27 rad2). ANGL can, in principle, also be extended to make non-linear neural network training feasible for these large networks, with the potential to lower the predictor error below the linear predictor error. We will soon scale our linear work to the approximately 108-subaperture MMT AO system, both with simulations and real wavefront sensor data from prime focus.

  14. Comparison of structured and unstructured physical activity training on predicted VO2max and heart rate variability in adolescents - a randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Vivek Kumar; Subramanian, Senthil Kumar; Radhakrishnan, Krishnakumar; Rajendran, Rajathi; Ravindran, Balasubramanian Sulur; Arunachalam, Vinayathan

    2017-05-01

    Physical inactivity contributes to many health issues. The WHO-recommended physical activity for adolescents encompasses aerobic, resistance, and bone strengthening exercises aimed at achieving health-related physical fitness. Heart rate variability (HRV) and maximal aerobic capacity (VO2max) are considered as noninvasive measures of cardiovascular health. The objective of this study is to compare the effect of structured and unstructured physical training on maximal aerobic capacity and HRV among adolescents. We designed a single blinded, parallel, randomized active-controlled trial (Registration No. CTRI/2013/08/003897) to compare the physiological effects of 6 months of globally recommended structured physical activity (SPA), with that of unstructured physical activity (USPA) in healthy school-going adolescents. We recruited 439 healthy student volunteers (boys: 250, girls: 189) in the age group of 12-17 years. Randomization across the groups was done using age and gender stratified randomization method, and the participants were divided into two groups: SPA (n=219, boys: 117, girls: 102) and USPA (n=220, boys: 119, girls: 101). Depending on their training status and gender the participants in both SPA and USPA groups were further subdivided into the following four sub-groups: SPA athlete boys (n=22) and girls (n=17), SPA nonathlete boys (n=95) and girls (n=85), USPA athlete boys (n=23) and girls (n=17), and USPA nonathlete boys (n=96) and girls (n=84). We recorded HRV, body fat%, and VO2 max using Rockport Walk Fitness test before and after the intervention. Maximum aerobic capacity and heart rate variability increased significantly while heart rate, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and body fat percentage decreased significantly after both SPA and USPA intervention. However, the improvement was more in SPA as compared to USPA. SPA is more beneficial for improving cardiorespiratory fitness, HRV, and reducing body fat percentage in terms of

  15. Experience with simulator training for emergency conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-12-01

    The training of operators by the use of simulators is common to most countries with nuclear power plants. Simulator training programmes are generally well developed, but their value can be limited by the age, type, size and capability of the simulator. Within these limits, most full scope simulators have a capability of training operators for a range of design basis accidents. It is recognized that human performance under accident conditions is difficult to predict or analyse, particularly in the area of severe accidents. These are rare events and by their very nature, unpredictable. Of importance, therefore, is to investigate the training of operators for severe accident conditions, and to examine ways in which simulators may be used in this task. The International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) has reviewed this field and the associated elements of human behaviour. It has recommended that activities are concentrated on this area. Initially it is encouraging the following objectives: i) To train operators for accident conditions including severe accidents and to strongly encourage the development and use of simulators for this purpose; ii) To improve the man-machine interface by the use of computer aids to the operator; iii) To develop human performance requirements for plant operating staff. As part of this work, the IAEA convened a technical committee on 15-19 September 1986 to review the experience with simulator training for emergency conditions, to review simulator modelling for severe accident training, to examine the role of human cognitive behaviour modelling, and to review guidance on accident scenarios. A substantial deviation may be a major fuel failure, a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA), etc. Examples of engineered safety features are: an Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS), and Containment Systems. This report was prepared by the participants during the meeting and reviewed further in a Consultant's Meeting. It also includes papers which were

  16. Monitoring and prediction of geotechnical and environmental risks for security in natural gas transportation; Monitoramento e previsao de riscos geotecnicos e ambientais para seguranca no transporte do gas natural

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chamecki, Paulo R.; Ligocki, Laryssa P.; Andrade, Heber A.C.; Manzolli, Andre; Horbatiuk, Borys W.D. [LACTEC - Instituto de Tecnologia para o Desenvolvimento, Curitiba, PR (Brazil); Strieder, Adelir J.; Quadros, Telmo F.P.; Buffon, Sergio A.; Stupf, Leonardo; Bressani, Luiz A.; Bica, Adriano V. Damiani [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil); Schiafino, Antonio V.; Bastos, Cesar B. [Fundacao Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG), RS (Brazil); Radu, Marcos S.; Nascimento Filho, Lenart P. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Santoro, Alcides [Centro de Tecnologias do Gas (CTGAS), Natal, RN (Brazil); Vasconcellos, Carlos R.A.; Oliveira, Hudson R. [TBG - Transportadora Brasileira Gasoduto Bolivia-Brasil S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    In order to take care of the consumption issues, often the bands of pipelines have to cross regions that do not present ideal conditions in terms of geotechnical and geologic characteristics. The present work describes a research in progress, involving a partnership between LACTEC, UFRGS, RedeGasEnergia and FINEP, that aims the development of a methodology for instrumentation and remote monitoring of places which present risks to the infrastructure of the gas-lines and the environment, due to geological and geotechnical conditions, as well as the definition of these places. The methodology is practically concluded and will be applied in the place defined for the case study in natural gas Bolivia-Brazil gas-line. Satellite images are being used, along whit computational modeling, geophysical methods, exploratory boreholes and field and laboratory tests, for the definition of points of risk. In the remote monitoring, besides a data communication system, residual stress test of the pipelines, strain gauges and automatic instruments, inclinometers, piezometer and pluviometers are being used. (author)

  17. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  18. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

  19. Plutonium in nature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madic, C.

    1994-01-01

    Plutonium in nature comes from natural sources and anthropogenic ones. Plutonium at the earth surface comes principally from anthropogenic sources. It is easily detectable in environment. The plutonium behaviour in environment is complex. It seems necessary for the future to reduce releases in environment, to improve predictive models of plutonium behaviour in geosphere, to precise biological impact of anthropogenic plutonium releases

  20. Language Training - French Training

    CERN Document Server

    2007-01-01

    General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 29 January to 30 March 2007. These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz : Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 29 January to 30 March 2007. This course is designed for people with a good level of spoken French. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF (for 8 students) For further information and registration, please consult our Web pages:   http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz : Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in English The next session will take place from January to June 2007 (break at Easter). This course is designed for people with a good level of spoken English. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF (for 8 students) Timetable will be fixed after discussion with the students. For registratio...

  1. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place from 04 October 2004 to 11 February 2005 (3 weeks break at Christmas). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Oral Expression This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to practise and maintain their speaking skills while extending their vocabulary. There will be approximately 8 participants in a class. Speaking activities will include discussions, meeting simulations, role-plays etc. depending on the needs of the students. Duration: 20 hours (2 hours a week) Price: 440 CHF (for 8 students) For further information, please contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Date and timetable will be fixed when there are sufficient participants enrolled. FORMATION EN LANGUES LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 langua...

  2. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Document Server

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place from 04 October 2004 to 11 February 2005 (3 weeks break at Christmas). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Oral Expression This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to practise and maintain their speaking skills while extending their vocabulary. There will be approximately 8 participants in a class. Speaking activities will include discussions, meeting simulations, role-plays etc. depending on the needs of the students. Duration: 20 hours (2 hours a week) Price: 440 CHF (for 8 students) For further information, please contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Date and timetable will be fixed when there are sufficient participants enrolled. FORMATION EN LANGUES LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz 73127 languag...

  3. Language Training: English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2004-01-01

    La prochaine session se déroulera du 04 octobre 2004 au 11 février 2005 (interruption de 3 semaines à Noël). Ces cours s'adressent à toute personne travaillant au CERN ainsi qu'à leur conjoint. Pour vous inscrire et voir tout le détail des cours proposés, consultez nos pages Web : http://cern.ch/Training Vous pouvez aussi contacter M. Liptow, tél. 72957. General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place from 04 October 2004 to 11 February 2005 (3 weeks break at Christmas). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mr. Liptow, tel. 72957. Oral Expression This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to practise and maintain their speaking skills while extending their vocabulary. There will be approximately 8 participants ...

  4. Evaluating the accuracy of theoretical one-bond 13 C─13 C scalar couplings and their ability to predict structure in a natural product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jacob; Valenti, Domenic; Bobnar, Harley; Drain, Erika; Elliott, Blaine; Frank, Sydney; McCullough, Tyler; Moore, Sean; Kettring, Andrew; Iuliucci, Robbie; Harper, James K

    2017-11-01

    This study explores the feasibility of using a combination of experimental and theoretical 1-bond 13 C─ 13 C scalar couplings ( 1 J CC ) to establish structure in organic compounds, including unknowns. Historically, n J CC and n J CH studies have emphasized 2 and 3-bond couplings, yet 1 J CC couplings exhibit significantly larger variations. Moreover, recent improvements in experimental measurement and data processing methods have made 1 J CC data more available. Herein, an approach is evaluated in which a collection of theoretical structures is created from a partial nuclear magnetic resonance structural characterization. Computed 1 J CC values are compared to experimental data to identify candidates giving the best agreement. This process requires knowledge of the error in theoretical methods, thus the B3LYP, B3PW91, and PBE0 functionals are evaluated by comparing to 27 experimental values from INADEQUATE. Respective errors of ±1.2, ±3.8, and ±2.3 Hz are observed. An initial test of this methodology involves the natural product 5-methylmellein. In this case, only a single candidate matches experimental data with high statistical confidence. This analysis establishes the intramolecular hydrogen-bonding arrangement, ring heteroatom identity, and conformation at one position. This approach is then extended to hydroheptelidic acid, a natural product not fully characterized in prior studies. The experimental/theoretical approach proposed herein identifies a single best-fit structure from among 26 candidates and establishes, for the first time, 1 configuration and 3 conformations to complete the characterization. These results suggest that accurate and complete structural characterizations of many moderately sized organic structures (<800 Da) may be possible using only 1 J CC data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. The perception of naturalness correlates with low-level visual features of environmental scenes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc G Berman

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that interacting with natural environments vs. more urban or built environments can have salubrious psychological effects, such as improvements in attention and memory. Even viewing pictures of nature vs. pictures of built environments can produce similar effects. A major question is: What is it about natural environments that produces these benefits? Problematically, there are many differing qualities between natural and urban environments, making it difficult to narrow down the dimensions of nature that may lead to these benefits. In this study, we set out to uncover visual features that related to individuals' perceptions of naturalness in images. We quantified naturalness in two ways: first, implicitly using a multidimensional scaling analysis and second, explicitly with direct naturalness ratings. Features that seemed most related to perceptions of naturalness were related to the density of contrast changes in the scene, the density of straight lines in the scene, the average color saturation in the scene and the average hue diversity in the scene. We then trained a machine-learning algorithm to predict whether a scene was perceived as being natural or not based on these low-level visual features and we could do so with 81% accuracy. As such we were able to reliably predict subjective perceptions of naturalness with objective low-level visual features. Our results can be used in future studies to determine if these features, which are related to naturalness, may also lead to the benefits attained from interacting with nature.

  6. Lithuanian Publisher’s Needs for Training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arūnas Gudinavičius

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The survey on the training and professional development needs of Lithuanian publishers was designed and conducted. The pilot research showed that publishers in Lithuania have an interest in professional training. According to the results, the need for training among the employees of Lithuanian publishing houses depends on the previous training experience: the more training courses the employee had before, the greater need for training he/she expresses. 82% of publishing house employees from four different fields agreed and strongly agreed on the need for training. Very few employees would like to pay for training by themselves. The identified need for training appears to reflect the nature of the problems encountered in the publishing field in Lithuania: Copyright, Law & Rights is the most wanted training topic among managing directors. The list of preferred topics for training can be used as the grounds for creating a supply of publishing training courses.

  7. A landscape analysis of leadership training in postgraduate medical education training programs at the University of Ottawa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlon Danilewitz

    2016-10-01

    Conclusions: While there is strong recognition of the importance of training future physician leaders, the nature and design of PGME leadership training is highly variable. These data can be used to potentially inform future PGME leadership training curricula.

  8. Predicting bioavailability and accumulation of organochlorine pesticides by Japanese medaka in the presence of humic acid and natural organic matter using passive sampling membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Runhui; Luo, Jianping; Sun, Liwei; Wang, Zijian; Spear, Philip A

    2007-10-01

    Adsorption to dissolved organic matter (DOM) may significantly decrease the freely dissolved concentration of many hydrophobic organic compounds and, hence, result in reduced bioavailability to aquatic organisms. Here, the suitability of using triolein-embedded cellulose acetate membrane (TECAM) as a biomimetic surrogate to assess the bioavailability of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in water in the presence of DOM was explored. The accumulation of OCPs was measured in TECAM and pelagic Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) in the laboratory after 12 h exposure to water containing different levels of Aldrich humic acid. Further, OCP uptake by TECAM and medaka in real aqueous environments was evaluated after 30 d exposures in two sites. Laboratory results showed that OCP uptake by medaka consistently decreased with increasing levels of humic acid in the range of 0-15 mg C/L in sample solutions. This tendency was closely mimicked by OCP accumulation in TECAM under the same conditions. Field results showed that TECAM accumulated similar OCP patterns as medaka (r2 = 0.92 for site 1 and r2 = 0.94 for site 2), although comparison of the in-field eight OCP concentrations in TECAM to those in medaka yielded approximately a factor of 3 (on a wet weight basis). These results suggest that the TECAM method can be used as a simple and useful tool to predict the bioavailability and bioaccumulation potential of poorly biotransformed organic compounds in pelagic fish in aqueous environment.

  9. A strategy based on gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and virtual molecular docking for analysis and prediction of bioactive composition in natural product essential oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haiyang; Gu, Dongyu; Wang, Miao; Guo, Hong; Wu, Huijuan; Tian, Guangliang; Li, Qian; Yang, Yi; Tian, Jing

    2017-06-09

    The discovery of leads from medicinal plants is crucial to drug development. The present study presents a strategy based on GC-MS coupled with molecular docking for analysis, identification and prediction of protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B inhibitors in the essential oil from Himalayan Cedar (HC). The essential oil with IC 50 value of 120.71±0.26μg/mL exhibited potential activity against protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) in vitro. After GC-MS analysis, 35 compounds were identified from this oil. The identified compounds were individually docked with PTP1B. Caryophyllene oxide with the lowest binding energy of -6.28kcal/mol was completely wrapped by the active site of PTP1B. The docking results indicated that caryophyllene oxide has potential PTP1B inhibitory activity and may be responsible for the PTP1B inhibitory activity of the essential oil. Caryophyllene oxide in the essential oil of Himalayan Cedar was isolated by HSCCC and the PTP1B inhibitory activity of this compound was then evaluated; the IC 50 value was 31.32±0.38μM. The result revealed that the present strategy can effectively discover the active composition from the complex mixture of medicinal plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Coastal 'Big Data' and nature-inspired computation: Prediction potentials, uncertainties, and knowledge derivation of neural networks for an algal metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millie, David F.; Weckman, Gary R.; Young, William A.; Ivey, James E.; Fries, David P.; Ardjmand, Ehsan; Fahnenstiel, Gary L.

    2013-07-01

    Coastal monitoring has become reliant upon automated sensors for data acquisition. Such a technical commitment comes with a cost; particularly, the generation of large, high-dimensional data streams ('Big Data') that personnel must search through to identify data structures. Nature-inspired computation, inclusive of artificial neural networks (ANNs), affords the unearthing of complex, recurring patterns within sizable data volumes. In 2009, select meteorological and hydrological data were acquired via autonomous instruments in Sarasota Bay, Florida (USA). ANNs estimated continuous chlorophyll (CHL) a concentrations from abiotic predictors, with correlations between measured:modeled concentrations >0.90 and model efficiencies ranging from 0.80 to 0.90. Salinity and water temperature were the principal influences for modeled CHL within the Bay; concentrations steadily increased at temperatures >28° C and were greatest at salinities 6.1 μg CHL L-1 maximized at a salinity of ca. 36.3 and a temperature of ca. 29.5 °C. A 10th-order Chebyshev bivariate polynomial equation was fit (adj. r2 = 0.99, p turbidity, temperature, and salinity (and to lesser degrees, wind speed, wind/current direction, irradiance, and urea-nitrogen) were key variables for quantitative rules in tree formalisms. Taken together, computations enabled knowledge provision for and quantifiable representations of the non-linear relationships between environmental variables and CHL a.

  11. NEW APPROACHES: Toppling trains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Malcolm

    1998-03-01

    This article explains a novel way of approaching centripetal force: theory is used to predict an orbital period at which a toy train will topple from a circular track. The demonstration has proved useful in A-level, GNVQ and undergraduate Physics and Engineering schemes.

  12. Snake Train

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李鲁

    1993-01-01

    The Parisian Transit Authority (RATP) has beguntesting a new train it hopes will be the 'metro① of theyear 2000': a 150-foot-long continuous tube dubbed② the'Boa.' The train is not sectioned off into cars③, thusallowing as many as 890 passengers to walk from one endof the Boa to the other. Swiveling axles beneath the train

  13. Applying Technology to Train Visualization Skills

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nanda, Sanjeeb

    2005-01-01

    .... Training visualization skills, such as terrain appreciation, is generally difficult and inefficient in the real world with natural representations or in a classroom with analog representations...

  14. The natural history of partial rotator cuff tear evaluated by MRI. Can we predict the prognosis of partial rotator cuff tear by MRI?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuura, Koumei

    2010-01-01

    The cause and progress of the tear in the title are not fully understood and its treatment varies dependently on the injured site, depth, accompanied disease and symptom, and imaging profile. The author classified the tears in 4 types in MRI findings, followed their temporal progression and clinical symptom, and found that this classification in MRI finding was helpful to predict the prognosis, which is described in this paper. Subjects are 47 shoulders of 45 patients (M19/F26, av. age 71.0 y) who underwent conservative treatment of the disease during the time May, 2003-Oct. 2008, periodical MRI (2.7 times in av.) for 18.5 mo in av. and follow-up diagnosis until 24.9 mo in av. MRI is conducted with the machine 1.0 T Siemens harmonicdome to acquire the fast spin echo T1, T2 weighted images, and short inversion time inversion recovery (STIR) coronal, axial and sagittal ones. Tears in MRI are classified in Type 1 (abnormal signal type) (25 shoulders), Type 2 (abnormal signal and swelling type) (7 shoulders), Type 3 (cut off end type) (10 shoulders) and Type 4 (tapered end type) (5 shoulders). The partial rotator cuff tear is suggested to be originated from the denaturation of the cuff with a subsequent certain injury or loading to become Type 1 to 2 and to progress to Type 3 to 4 by continuous acrominal impingement. It is suggested that at the first diagnosis the Type 1 does not have so much serious symptom, but which tends to last long while the symptom is serious in Type 2 and 3: the prognosis in Type 4 is good. (K.T)

  15. Serological and biochemical follow-up in cattle naturally infected with Fasciola hepatica, and comparison with a climate model for predicting risks of fasciolosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossaert, K; Lonneux, J F; Godeau, J M; Peeters, J; Losson, B

    1999-01-01

    Several biological parameters were measured in 31 heifers naturally infected with Fasciola hepatica during one grazing season in the Belgian Ardennes. A forecast model based on daily temperature used to assess the risk of fasciolosis was fitted to this assay. Cattle were turned out to two pastures. Each pasture was divided into two plots: one was treated with calcium cyanamide and the other was left untreated. The Lymnaea truncatula snails were counted on three different occasions. The results indicated a poor molluscicide efficiency. Body weight gains, anti-Fasciola antibody levels, faecal egg counts, levels of sorbitol dehydrogenase (SDH) and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gamma GT), packed cell volumes, white blood cells and differential leucocyte counts were determined monthly. No statistically significant difference was observed between animals from the two plots regardless of the recorded data. No correlation was found between body weight gains and other biological data. The sampling date had a significant effect on the antibody responses within a same group, and on the enzymatic levels for all groups combined. The forecast results were consistent with the recorded data. Temperature was a major bioclimatic constraint on the transmission of life cycle, and risk of infection occurred mainly in late spring (May/June) and in early September. Current results might be used to issue advice on the need for flukicide treatment of cattle. The indicators of the infection considered alone were useless and it is concluded that herd diagnosis of fasciolosis may rely on the rise of specific antibody levels, possibly associated with an increase in hepatic enzyme activities.

  16. Combating Training-Stress Syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Mike

    2002-01-01

    Addresses the nature and ramifications of various training stress syndromes (overtraining, under-recovery, distress, staleness, and burnout) that can accompany inappropriate training practices, examining the interventions that players and coaches can use to combat these syndromes (including physical, psychological, and performance interventions),…

  17. Language Training - English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2009-01-01

    General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place: from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Nathalie Dumeaux, tel. 78144. Oral Expression The next session will take place from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to enhance their speaking skills. There will be an average of 8 participants per class. Speaking activities will include discussions, meeting simulations, role-plays, etc., depending on the needs of the students. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF (for a minimum of 8 students) Writing Professional Documents in English The next session will take place from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). This course is designed for people ...

  18. Language Training - English Training

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2009-01-01

    General and Professional English Courses The next session will take place: from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). These courses are open to all persons working on the CERN site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Nathalie Dumeaux, tel. 78144. Oral Expression The next session will take place from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to enhance their speaking skills. There will be on average of 8 participants in a class. Speaking activities will include discussions, meeting simulations, role-plays etc. depending on the needs of the students. Duration: 30 hours Price: 660 CHF (for a minimum of 8 students) Writing Professional Documents in English The next session will take place from 2nd March to end of June 2009 (1/2 weeks break at Easter). This course is designed for people w...

  19. A Survey of the Status of Listening Training in Some Fortune 500 Corporations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolvin, Andrew D.; Coakley, Carolyn Gwynn

    1991-01-01

    Surveys training directors of Fortune 500 corporations to determine the content and nature of listening training offered to employees. Discusses types of listening instruction, personnel receiving listening training, length of listening training, and backgrounds of listening trainers. (KEH)

  20. NRC methods for evaluation of industry training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morisseau, D.S.; Koontz, J.L.; Persensky, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    On March 20, 1985, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission published the Policy Statement on Training and Qualification. The Policy Statement endorsed the INPO-managed Training Accreditation Program because it encompasses the five elements of performance-based training. This paper described the multiple methods that the NRC is using to monitor industry efforts to improve training and implement the NRC Policy Statement on Training and Qualification. The results of the evaluation of industry training improvement programs will be reviewed by the Commissioners in April 1987 to determine the nature of continuing NRC policy and programs for ensuring effective training for the US nuclear industry

  1. Learning from nature: Nature-inspired algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albeanu, Grigore; Madsen, Henrik; Popentiu-Vladicescu, Florin

    2016-01-01

    .), genetic and evolutionary strategies, artificial immune systems etc. Well-known examples of applications include: aircraft wing design, wind turbine design, bionic car, bullet train, optimal decisions related to traffic, appropriate strategies to survive under a well-adapted immune system etc. Based......During last decade, the nature has inspired researchers to develop new algorithms. The largest collection of nature-inspired algorithms is biology-inspired: swarm intelligence (particle swarm optimization, ant colony optimization, cuckoo search, bees' algorithm, bat algorithm, firefly algorithm etc...... on collective social behaviour of organisms, researchers have developed optimization strategies taking into account not only the individuals, but also groups and environment. However, learning from nature, new classes of approaches can be identified, tested and compared against already available algorithms...

  2. Model to predict the flow of tracers in naturally fractured geothermal reservoirs; Modelo para predecir el flujo de trazadores en yacimientos geotermicos naturalmente fracturados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez Sabag, Jetzabeth

    1988-02-01

    The proposed model has been developed to study the flow of tracers through naturally fractured geothermal reservoirs. The idealized system of the reservoir is made up of two regions: A movable region, where diffusion and convection mechanisms are present and a stagnant or immovable region where the diffusion and adsorption mechanisms are considered: in both regions the loss of mass by radioactive decay is considered. The solutions of the basic flow equations are in the Laplace space and for its numerical inversion the Stehfest algorithm was used. In spite of the numerical dispersion that these solutions involve, a well defined tendency to infer the system behavior under different flow conditions was found. It was found that, for practical purposes, the size of the matrix blocks does not have an influence on the concentration response, and the solution is reduced to the one presented by Tang and associates. Under these conditions, the system behavior can be described by two non-dimensional parameters: The Peclet number in fractures, P{sub e1}, and a parameter. The tracer response for the peak solution was also derived. An analytical solution limit was found for the case in which {alpha} tends to zero, which corresponds to the case of a homogenous system. It was verified that this limit solution is valid, for {alpha}<0.01. For the case of continuous injection, this solution is reduced to the one presented by Coasts and Smith. For the peak solution, it was found that the irruption time corresponding to the maximum concentration is directly related to the non-dimensional group. Therefore, it is possible to obtain the value of P{sub e1} for a given X{sub D}, or vice versa. A group of graphs of non-dimensional concentration in the fracture versus non-dimensional time, was developed. It was found that if P{sub e1} remains constant whereas {alpha} changes, the limit solution is the envelope of a family of curves in a graph of C{sub D} versus t{sub D}. In this figure P

  3. Instructor training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuzhakov, A.Yu.

    1995-01-01

    A SAT-based Instructor Training Course was developed and implemented at NVTC. The duration of the initial course is 3 weeks and 2 weeks for annual refresher course. NVTC has had much experience with this Instructor Training Course generating the following lessons-learned: SAT implementation needs to be supported by plant management; age of instructors; developments of training materials and conducting training at the same time; knowledge and use of the PC; English language skills; social transitioning from the NPP to the TC; motivation; workplace environment and conditions

  4. Worker reciprocity and employer investment in training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leuven, E.; Oosterbeek, H.; Sloof, R.; van Klaveren, C.

    2005-01-01

    Standard economic theory predicts that firms will not invest in general training and will underinvest in specific training. Empirical evidence, however, indicates that firms do invest in general training of their workers. Evidence from laboratory experiments points to less underinvestment in

  5. 33 CFR 127.503 - Training: General.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... operations. (5) LNG release response procedures. (6) First aid procedures for— (i) Frostbite; (ii) Burns... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Training: General. 127.503... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Personnel Training § 127.503 Training: General. The...

  6. Scientific Library Offers New Training Options | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Scientific Library is expanding its current training opportunities by offering webinars, allowing employees to take advantage of trainings from the comfort of their own offices. Due to the nature of their work, some employees find it inconvenient to attend in-person training classes; others simply prefer to use their own computers. The Scientific Library has been

  7. Ion exchange reactions of major inorganic cations (H+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and K+) on beidellite: Experimental results and new thermodynamic database. Toward a better prediction of contaminant mobility in natural environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robin, Valentin; Tertre, Emmanuel; Beaufort, Daniel; Regnault, Olivier; Sardini, Paul; Descostes, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Multi-site ion exchange model for beidellite for Na + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , K + and H + . • Validity over the 1–7 pH range and total normality >5 × 10 −3 mol/L. • Application to equilibrium between smectite and acidic solution from mining sites. • Impact of crystal chemistry of smectites on their sorption properties. - Abstract: To our knowledge, no thermodynamic database is available in the literature concerning ion-exchange reactions occurring in low-charge smectite with tetrahedral charge (beidellite). The lack of this information makes it difficult to predict the mobility of contaminants in environments where beidellite and major cations, which act as competitors with contaminants for sorption on the clay phase, are present. The present study proposes a multi-site ion exchange model able to describe experimental data obtained for H + and the four major cations (Na + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ and K + ) found in natural waters interacting with a <0.3 μm size fraction of Na-beidellite. The nature of the sites involved in the sorption processes is assessed using qualitative structural data. Moreover, the effect of the charge location in the smectite on the selectivity coefficient values is discussed by comparison with the results reported in the literature for smectite characterized by octahedral charge (montmorillonite). The new thermodynamic database proposed in this study is based on the same total sorption site density and distribution of sites regardless of the cations investigated. This database is valid for a large range of physico-chemical conditions: a [1–7] pH range, a total normality higher than 5 × 10 −3 mol/L corresponding to a flocculated state for water/clay systems, and when sorption of ions pairs can be neglected. Note that this study provides evidence that a thermodynamic database describing ion exchange reactions between H + and the four major cations of natural water for smectite cannot be valid irrespective of the total

  8. Field training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mumford, G.E.; Hadaway, E.H.

    1991-01-01

    Individualized, personal training can be used to increase an employee's awareness of the HSE program. Such training can stimulate personal commitment and provide personal skills that can be utilized for the benefit of the overall HSE effort. But, providing such training within our industry can be a difficult task due to the scheduling, travel arrangements, and cost associated with bringing employees from isolated, remote locations to centrally located training facilities. One method of overcoming these obstacles involves the use of field instructors to provide the training at the many, and varied number of individuals can be reached with minimal disruption to their work scheduling or to their time off. In fact, this type of on-site training is already used by some oil companies and drilling contractors with encouraging results. This paper describes one drilling contractor's experiences with such a training program. The results after eight years how that this program not only can provide and efficient, economical means of employee training, but also can have a direct application to employee motivation regarding a company's HSE effort

  9. [Teacher Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmatier, Robert A., Ed.

    1977-01-01

    This issue collects three articles concerning reading-teacher training. "Language, Failure, and Panda Bears" by Patricia M. Cunningham calls attention to dialect difficulties in the classroom and provides ideas for teacher training programs and for public schools to solve this problem. William H. Rupley, in "Improving Teacher Effectiveness in…

  10. Do Different Training Conditions Facilitate Team Implementation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Karina; Randall, Raymond; Christensen, Karl B.

    2017-01-01

    A mixed methods approach was applied to examine the effects of a naturally occurring teamwork intervention supported with training. The first objective was to integrate qualitative process evaluation and quantitative effect evaluation to examine how and why the training influence intervention...... outcomes. The intervention (N = 328) was supplemented with four training conditions (no training, team member training, team leader training, and a combination of training types). The second objective was to examine whether different training conditions support team member training in isolation......, but not in combination, led to positive outcomes. The integrated analysis of qualitative and quantitative data indicated that a number of contextual factors interacted with training experiences and outcomes to influence the success of team intervention....

  11. Natural gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fraser, J W

    1967-08-01

    This report on the natural gas industry of Canada includes: composition and uses of natural gas, production statistics, exploration and development, reserve estimates, natural gas processing, transportation, and marketing. For the Canadian natural gas industry, 1966 was a year of moderate expansion in all phases, with a strong demand continuing for sulfur and liquid hydrocarbons produced as by-products of gas processing. Value of natural gas production increased to $199 million and ranked sixth in terms of value of mineral ouput in Canada. Currently, natural gas provides over 70% of Canada's energy requirements. Proved remaining marketable reserves are estimated to be in excess of a 29-yr supply.

  12. ENGLISH TRAINING

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch PLACES AVAILABLE Writing Professional Documents in English This course is designed for people with a good level of spoken English who need to improve their professional writing (administrative, scientific, technical). Duration: 20 hours (2 hours a week) Price: 440 CHF (for 8 students) Date and timetable will be fixed when there are sufficient participants enrolled. Oral Expression This course is intended for people with a good knowledge of English who want to practise and maintain their sp...

  13. Operator training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wirstad, J.

    1983-12-01

    The traditional operator job is changing, which among other things has generated a need for better job training. Surprisingly increased process automation has lead to increased operator qualifications, i.e. basic job training but also up-date and rehearsal training within certain fixed intervals. There are several, similar models for instructional system development available in the literature. One model which is of special interest integrates Operator Training development and Man-Machine Interfaces development. The extent to which Systematic Operator Training has been implemented varies with branches and companies. The nuclear power branch is given as an example in the report. This branch probably represents something better than the average among the process industries.(author)

  14. Training Standardization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the benefits of and required process and recommendations for implementing the standardization of training in the nuclear power industry in the United States and abroad. Current Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) enable training standardization in the nuclear power industry. The delivery of training through the Internet, Intranet and video over IP will facilitate this standardization and bring multiple benefits to the nuclear power industry worldwide. As the amount of available qualified and experienced professionals decreases because of retirements and fewer nuclear engineering institutions, standardized training will help increase the number of available professionals in the industry. Technology will make it possible to use the experience of retired professionals who may be interested in working part-time from a remote location. Well-planned standardized training will prevent a fragmented approach among utilities, and it will save the industry considerable resources in the long run. It will also ensure cost-effective and safe nuclear power plant operation

  15. SVM-Based System for Prediction of Epileptic Seizures from iEEG Signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherkassky, Vladimir; Lee, Jieun; Veber, Brandon; Patterson, Edward E.; Brinkmann, Benjamin H.; Worrell, Gregory A.

    2017-01-01

    Objective This paper describes a data-analytic modeling approach for prediction of epileptic seizures from intracranial electroencephalogram (iEEG) recording of brain activity. Even though it is widely accepted that statistical characteristics of iEEG signal change prior to seizures, robust seizure prediction remains a challenging problem due to subject-specific nature of data-analytic modeling. Methods Our work emphasizes understanding of clinical considerations important for iEEG-based seizure prediction, and proper translation of these clinical considerations into data-analytic modeling assumptions. Several design choices during pre-processing and post-processing are considered and investigated for their effect on seizure prediction accuracy. Results Our empirical results show that the proposed SVM-based seizure prediction system can achieve robust prediction of preictal and interictal iEEG segments from dogs with epilepsy. The sensitivity is about 90–100%, and the false-positive rate is about 0–0.3 times per day. The results also suggest good prediction is subject-specific (dog or human), in agreement with earlier studies. Conclusion Good prediction performance is possible only if the training data contain sufficiently many seizure episodes, i.e., at least 5–7 seizures. Significance The proposed system uses subject-specific modeling and unbalanced training data. This system also utilizes three different time scales during training and testing stages. PMID:27362758

  16. PHMC post-NPH emergency response training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1997-01-01

    This document describes post-Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) emergency response training that was provided to two teams of Project Hanford Management Contractors (PHMC) staff that will be used to assess potential structural damage that may occur as a result of a significant natural phenomena event. This training supports recent plans and procedures to use trained staff to inspect structures following an NPH event on the Hanford Site

  17. PHMC post-NPH emergency response training

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1997-04-08

    This document describes post-Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) emergency response training that was provided to two teams of Project Hanford Management Contractors (PHMC) staff that will be used to assess potential structural damage that may occur as a result of a significant natural phenomena event. This training supports recent plans and procedures to use trained staff to inspect structures following an NPH event on the Hanford Site.

  18. Entrepreneurship training in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Leila Kæmsgaard Pagh

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Due to the very high youth unemployment in Northern Ghana, there is a huge need for enterprising skills among young people. A natural focus in recent years has therefore been entrepreneurship training, focusing on training young Ghanaians to start-up businesses. Unfortunately, the young...... is that adding a focus on the young entrepreneur’s means, attitude and enterprising behaviour skills to the existing focus on starting up businesses, will increase the value of the Entrepreneurship training and support the overcoming of constraints. The paper build on a design-based research project...... in collaboration with the local NGO YEfL. Based on relevant theory, a qualitative field research in Northern Ghana and a quantitative baseline survey a new Entrepreneurship Model has been designed. The new model was tested in autumn 2016 at three Entrepreneurship boot camps in Northern Ghana. The study has...

  19. Natural Gas

    OpenAIRE

    Bakar, Wan Azelee Wan Abu; Ali, Rusmidah

    2010-01-01

    Natural gas fuel is a green fuel and becoming very demanding because it is environmental safe and clean. Furthermore, this fuel emits lower levels of potentially harmful by-products into the atmosphere. Most of the explored crude natural gas is of sour gas and yet, very viable and cost effective technology is still need to be developed. Above all, methanation technology is considered a future potential treatment method for converting the sour natural gas to sweet natural gas.

  20. Training Attestations

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2004-01-01

    In the past, paper Training Attestations were printed during the first quarter of a New Year for Staff Members having followed courses and seminars the previous year in the context of CERN's official Training Programmes.  The attestations were sent to Divisional Training Officers (DTO's) for distribution to all Staff Members concerned within their Division. In practise many Staff Members did not find this paper useful, however some expressed a wish to be able to have access to a self-service facility in case of need. This change was discussed by the Joint Training Board (JTB) and with the DTO's during 2003 and was supported. As a consequence, following a collaboration between HR-PMD and IT-AIS, from 2004 onwards paper Training Attestations will no longer be printed and distributed as before. Those requiring a list of training followed in the past can now obtain their attestation directly from the Human Resources Toolkit (HRT) application for all training followed since 1997. https://hrt.cern...

  1. LANGUAGE TRAINING

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch FRENCH TRAINING General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 January to 02 April 2004. These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz: Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 January to 02 April 2004. This course is designed for people wi...

  2. LANGUAGE TRAINING

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    If you wish to participate in one of the following courses, please discuss with your supervisor and apply electronically directly from the course description pages that can be found on the Web at: http://www.cern.ch/Training/ or fill in an "application for training" form available from your Divisional Secretariat or from your DTO (Divisional Training Officer). Applications will be accepted in the order of their receipt. LANGUAGE TRAINING Françoise Benz tel. 73127 language.training@cern.ch FRENCH TRAINING General and Professional French Courses The next session will take place from 26 January to 02 April 2004. These courses are open to all persons working on the Cern site, and to their spouses. For registration and further information on the courses, please consult our Web pages: http://cern.ch/Training or contact Mrs. Benz : Tel. 73127. Writing Professional Documents in French The next session will take place from 26 January to 02 April 2004. This course is designed for peop...

  3. Driverless Train

    OpenAIRE

    Törnqvist, Julia; Berglund, Emma

    2017-01-01

    As automation increases in train services, this project resulted in making a driver-less train. The main purpose was to see how security can be increased. By using sensors, today’s technologies and rebuild the stations with walls on the platforms, the safety can increase for the better. This project designs a railway system consisting of a train, boom barriers and a station. The mechanical parts were made from scratch to get the system to work beneficially. The use of Arduino as a micro contro...

  4. National Biocontainment Training Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Enfermedades Virales Humanas, Argentina – The NBTC has an ongoing relationship with this Institute, which first sent personnel for facilities...19 42 INTRODUCTION Perhaps at no time in recent history has it been so evident that the study of infectious diseases, naturally...BSL3 and ABSL3 courses.  Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas, Argentina . We also trained nine 67 individuals from the Instituto

  5. Resuscitation training.

    OpenAIRE

    Shepherd, A.

    1995-01-01

    All physicians, dentists, nurses and health care personnel should be adequately and regularly trained in cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Guidelines for acquiring the necessary skills in basic and advanced life support are now available.

  6. Interval Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... you're overdoing it, slow down. As your stamina improves, challenge yourself to vary the pace. You ... exercise training modes in young and old humans. Cell Metabolism. 2017;25:581. Xie B, et al. ...

  7. Ethics Training in Psychiatry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Guloksuz

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Although ethics training is one of the core components of psychiatric education, it is not sufficiently addressed in the curricula of many educational institutions. It is shown that many of the psychiatry residents received no ethics training in both residency and medical school. Predictably, over half of the psychiatry residents had faced an ethical dilemma that they felt unprepared to meet, and nearly all of them indicated ethics education would have helped them to solve this dilemma. In addition to learning about the fundamental topics of ethics like confidentiality, boundary violations, justice, benefience and nonmaleficence, psychiatrists must also learn to deal with other hidden ethical dilemmas which are mostly due to the changing world order. It is obvious that residency training should include a well developed ethics curriculum. However, some still believe that ethical principles cannot be taught and are formed in one’s early moral development. Accepting the fact that teaching ethics is difficult, we believe that it is getting easier with the new methods for teaching in medicine. These methods are clinical supervisions, rol-models, case studies, role playing, small group discussions, team based learning and “let’s talking medicine” groups which is a useful methods for discussing ethics dilemmas on daily practice and C.A.R.E (Core Beliefs, Actions, Reasons, Experience which is a special training method for teaching ethics. In this review, the need of ethics training in residency curriculum will be discussed and new methods for teaching ethics will be proposed.

  8. Personnel Training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokar, M.

    2012-01-01

    The professional training of employees for Units 3 and 4 of the Mochovce Power Plant is approaching finals. At the beginning, in particular the main control room operators were trained, later all the other employees needed for power plant commissioning and operation. In June, the second phase of the project will start; it will be focused on the new equipment of the Units under commissioning. (author)

  9. Supervisor training

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Inge Nygaard

    2015-01-01

    on the experience of an integrated supervisor training programme offered in Aalborg, Denmark in 2009/2010. In this programme general issues of professional supervision and the application of artistic media as a core element in the supervisory process were Integrated. It is the hope of the author that this article...... will inspire other music therapists to develop supervisor training programmes for professional music therapists and also to undertake further research into professional supervision....

  10. PLURALIZING NATURE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Thomas Juel

    2014-01-01

    Denmark is widely recognised for its democratic approach to planning and the idea of planning for the common good. This interest in the common good and common values seems also to be reflected in the way which nature restoration is planned and managed – one common nature directed by the public...... authorities. But nature restoration is far from being a neural undertaking. Just like any other type of heritage production it can be the source of dissonance – ‘our’ nature is not necessary ‘their’ nature. Often this dissonance is managed in ways, which are not particular sensitive to site......-specificity. As exemplified by the Skjern River Restoration Project (1999-2003), one interpretation of the landscape sometimes suppresses other valid interpretations neglecting its diverse history. However, evidence from Switzerland suggests that planning for the common good, in the case of nature restoration, does...

  11. Hydrophysical conditions and periphyton in natural rivers. Analysis and predictive modelling of periphyton by changed regulations; Hydrofysiske forhold og begroing i naturlige elver. Analyse og prediktiv modellering av begroing ved reguleringsendringer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stokseth, S

    1994-10-01

    The objective of this thesis has been to examine the interaction between hydrodynamical and physical factors and the temporal and spatial dynamics of periphyton in natural steep rivers. The study strategy has been to work with quantitative system variables to be able to evaluate the potential usability of a predictive model for periphyton changes as a response to river regulations. The thesis is constituted by a theoretical and an empirical study. The theoretical study is aimed at presenting a conceptual model of the relevant factors based on an analysis of published studies. Effort has been made to evaluate and present the background material in a structured way. To concurrently handle the spatial and temporal dynamics of periphyton a new method for data collection has been developed. A procedure for quantifying the photo registrations has been developed. The simple hydrodynamical parameters were estimated from a set of standard formulas whereas the complex parameters were estimated from a three dimensional simulation model called SSIIM. The main conclusion from the analysis is that flood events are the major controlling factors wrt. periphyton biomass and that water temperature is of major importance for the periphyton resistance. Low temperature clearly increases the periphyton erosion resistance. Thus, to model or control the temporal dynamics the river periphyton, the water temperature and the frequency and size of floods should be regarded the most significant controlling factors. The data in this study has been collected from a river with a stable water quality and frequent floods. 109 refs., 41 figs., 34 tabs.

  12. Predicting human activities in sequences of actions in RGB-D videos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardim, David; Nunes, Luís.; Dias, Miguel

    2017-03-01

    In our daily activities we perform prediction or anticipation when interacting with other humans or with objects. Prediction of human activity made by computers has several potential applications: surveillance systems, human computer interfaces, sports video analysis, human-robot-collaboration, games and health-care. We propose a system capable of recognizing and predicting human actions using supervised classifiers trained with automatically labeled data evaluated in our human activity RGB-D dataset (recorded with a Kinect sensor) and using only the position of the main skeleton joints to extract features. Using conditional random fields (CRFs) to model the sequential nature of actions in a sequence has been used before, but where other approaches try to predict an outcome or anticipate ahead in time (seconds), we try to predict what will be the next action of a subject. Our results show an activity prediction accuracy of 89.9% using an automatically labeled dataset.

  13. Natural Philosophy

    OpenAIRE

    Blair, Ann M.

    2006-01-01

    Natural philosophy” is often used by European historians as an umbrella term to designate the study of nature before it can easily be identified with what we call “science” today, to avoid the modern and potentially anachronistic connotations of that term. But “natural philosophy” (and its equivalents in different languages) was also an actor's category, a term commonly used throughout the early modern period and typically defined quite broadly as the study of natural bodies. As the central ...

  14. Dissonant Nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Thomas Juel

    2013-01-01

    Nature restoration is far from being a neural undertaking. Just like any other type of heritage production it can be the source of dissonance – ‘our’ nature is not necessary ‘their’ nature. Often this dissonance is managed in ways, which are not particular sensitive to site-specificity. As exempl...... and allows for multiple interpretations to coexist. Evidence can be found in the Re-naturalization of River Aire (2002-2015), a restoration project, which reveals approaches that could be labelled landscape architecture specific....

  15. Temporal naturalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolin, Lee

    2015-11-01

    Two people may claim both to be naturalists, but have divergent conceptions of basic elements of the natural world which lead them to mean different things when they talk about laws of nature, or states, or the role of mathematics in physics. These disagreements do not much affect the ordinary practice of science which is about small subsystems of the universe, described or explained against a background, idealized to be fixed. But these issues become crucial when we consider including the whole universe within our system, for then there is no fixed background to reference observables to. I argue here that the key issue responsible for divergent versions of naturalism and divergent approaches to cosmology is the conception of time. One version, which I call temporal naturalism, holds that time, in the sense of the succession of present moments, is real, and that laws of nature evolve in that time. This is contrasted with timeless naturalism, which holds that laws are immutable and the present moment and its passage are illusions. I argue that temporal naturalism is empirically more adequate than the alternatives, because it offers testable explanations for puzzles its rivals cannot address, and is likely a better basis for solving major puzzles that presently face cosmology and physics. This essay also addresses the problem of qualia and experience within naturalism and argues that only temporal naturalism can make a place for qualia as intrinsic qualities of matter.

  16. Interspecific communication from people to horses (Equus ferus caballus) is influenced by different horsemanship training styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorey, Nicole R; Conover, Alicia M; Udell, Monique A R

    2014-11-01

    The ability of many domesticated animals to follow human pointing gestures to locate hidden food has led to scientific debate on the relative importance of domestication and individual experience on the origins and development of this capacity. To further explore this question, we examined the influence of different prior training histories/methods on the ability of horses (Equus ferus caballus) to follow a momentary distal point. Ten horses previously trained using one of two methods (Parelli™ natural horsemanship or traditional horse training) were tested using a standard object choice task. The results show that neither group of horses was initially able to follow the momentary distal point. However, after more experience with the point, horses previously trained using the Parelli natural horsemanship method learned to follow momentary distal points significantly faster than those previously trained with traditional methods. The poor initial performance of horses on distal pointing tasks, coupled with the finding that prior training history and experimental experience can lead to success on this task, fails to support the predictions of the domestication hypothesis and instead lends support to the two-stage hypothesis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Training scientist from developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultze-Kraft, P.

    1987-01-01

    The system of the training of specialists at the IAEA training courses, which are organized on interregional, regional and national basis, is presented. The necessity in the training of specialists in the given field, which is expressed by the states asking for assistance, is the main criterion for choosing subjects at the training courses. The IAEA has concentrated its attention on the courses in the following three directions: courses on the planning (expansion of power systems, prediction of needs in electric power); courses on the supervision (project realization, safety and reliability of NPP operation, radiation protection); courses for NPP construction inspectors, site selection, safety assessment. Training of teachers for national personnel is one of the new directions

  18. Matematica Natural.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozano, Patricia; Medearis, Linda

    Matematica Natural (Natural Mathematics) is a mathematics curriculum for young children based on the assumption that they learn mathematics through concrete, real life, relevant experiences and that educational differences rather than cultural differences influence math achievement. The curriculum uses hands-on materials and activities to teach…

  19. Natural radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feliciano, Vanusa Maria Delage

    2016-01-01

    Cosmic radiation, as well as cosmogenic radiation, terrestrial radiation, radon and thorium are introduced in this chapter 3. The distribution of natural radiation sources is treated, where the percentage distribution of the contribution relative to exposure to radiation from natural and artificial sources is also included

  20. Framing nature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Peter

    2017-01-01

    This PhD thesis is about communication concerning nature in the Netherlands. The purpose of this exploratory study is to take both a theoretical and an empirical look at whether (implicit) religious elements play a role in this communication about nature in the Netherlands.

    In this PhD