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Sample records for tradeoff analysis model

  1. A trade-off analysis design tool. Aircraft interior noise-motion/passenger satisfaction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1977-01-01

    A design tool was developed to enhance aircraft passenger satisfaction. The effect of aircraft interior motion and noise on passenger comfort and satisfaction was modelled. Effects of individual aircraft noise sources were accounted for, and the impact of noise on passenger activities and noise levels to safeguard passenger hearing were investigated. The motion noise effect models provide a means for tradeoff analyses between noise and motion variables, and also provide a framework for optimizing noise reduction among noise sources. Data for the models were collected onboard commercial aircraft flights and specially scheduled tests.

  2. Analysis of the tradeoff between agriculture and ecosystem preservation using a new ecohydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Z.; Zheng, Y.; Li, X.; Tian, Y.; Zheng, C.

    2016-12-01

    Inner-basin water use conflicts are common in arid and semi-arid areas. As the second largest endorheic river basin in China, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) is exemplary of such conflicts between agriculture and ecosystem preservation. The densely distributed agriculture in the middle HRB (M-HRB) consumes a large amount of water, which has directly threatened the fragile and water-limited ecosystem in the lower HRB (L-HRB). To alleviate the conflict and prevent the trend of ecological deterioration of the L-HRB, an Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP) has been implemented since 2000 to ensure that enough water is released to the L-HRB. With the water diversion, an increase in the leaf area index (LAI) has been observed in the L-HRB. However, to ensure the annually allocated streamflow discharge to the L-HRB, more groundwater (GW) has been pumped for irrigation in the M-HRB, which has led to declining GW levels. How to make water management more sustainable for both agriculture and ecosystem has thus become an urgent issue. Crops and natural vegetation play vital roles in affecting the water cycle, hence it should be well integrated into a hydrological model for water management. A new Hydrological and Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model (HEIFLOW) has been developed. HEIFLOW is based on an improved version of the GSFLOW developed by the USGS and a General Eco-Hydrological Module (GEHM) developed in this study to simulate plant growth kinetics. The model has been applied to simulate the ecohydrological conditions in the M- and L-HRB. The model results show a consistently good agreement with the observation data. Analysis using the new integrated model indicates that the M-HRB GW system is not sustainable, and that the agriculture in the M-HRB has to sacrifice itself for ecological restoration in the L-HRB under the current water allocation strategy. The restoration of lower basin was further assessed under a new allocation strategy that aims to improve

  3. Collision risk-capacity tradeoff analysis of an en-route corridor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Bojia

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Flow corridors are a new class of trajectory-based airspace which derives from the next generation air transportation system concept of operations. Reducing the airspace complexity and increasing the capacity are the main purposes of the en-route corridor. This paper analyzes the collision risk-capacity tradeoff using a combined discrete–continuous simulation method. A basic two-dimensional en-route flow corridor with performance rules is designed as the operational environment. A second-order system is established by combining the point mass model and the proportional derivative controller together to simulate the self-separation operations of the aircrafts in the corridor and the operation performance parameters from the User Manual for the Base of Aircraft Data are used in this research in order to improve the reliability. Simulation results indicate that the aircrafts can self-separate from each other efficiently by adjusting their velocities, and rationally setting the values of some variables can improve the rate and stability of the corridor with low risks of loss of separation.

  4. Analysis of the Perfect Table Fuzzy Rainbow Tradeoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byoung-Il Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cryptanalytic time memory tradeoff algorithms are tools for inverting one-way functions, and they are used in practice to recover passwords that restrict access to digital documents. This work provides an accurate complexity analysis of the perfect table fuzzy rainbow tradeoff algorithm. Based on the analysis results, we show that the lesser known fuzzy rainbow tradeoff performs better than the original rainbow tradeoff, which is widely believed to be the best tradeoff algorithm. The fuzzy rainbow tradeoff can attain higher online efficiency than the rainbow tradeoff and do so at a lower precomputation cost.

  5. An internet graph model based on trade-off optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Hamelin, J. I.; Schabanel, N.

    2004-03-01

    This paper presents a new model for the Internet graph (AS graph) based on the concept of heuristic trade-off optimization, introduced by Fabrikant, Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou in[CITE] to grow a random tree with a heavily tailed degree distribution. We propose here a generalization of this approach to generate a general graph, as a candidate for modeling the Internet. We present the results of our simulations and an analysis of the standard parameters measured in our model, compared with measurements from the physical Internet graph.

  6. Identifying optimum performance trade-offs using a cognitively bounded rational analysis model of discretionary task interleaving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Christian P; Brumby, Duncan P; Dowell, John; Chater, Nick; Howes, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    We report the results of a dual-task study in which participants performed a tracking and typing task under various experimental conditions. An objective payoff function was used to provide explicit feedback on how participants should trade off performance between the tasks. Results show that participants' dual-task interleaving strategy was sensitive to changes in the difficulty of the tracking task and resulted in differences in overall task performance. To test the hypothesis that people select strategies that maximize payoff, a Cognitively Bounded Rational Analysis model was developed. This analysis evaluated a variety of dual-task interleaving strategies to identify the optimal strategy for maximizing payoff in each condition. The model predicts that the region of optimum performance is different between experimental conditions. The correspondence between human data and the prediction of the optimal strategy is found to be remarkably high across a number of performance measures. This suggests that participants were honing their behavior to maximize payoff. Limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  7. Adhesive bonds for optics: analysis and trade-offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, John G.; Hawk, Matthew D.

    2017-08-01

    Fastening optical elements with adhesives presents challenges when dissimilar materials (almost always the case) are encountered and environmental exposures from temperature changes, shock and vibration must be met. A brief review of standard processes will be followed by a selection criteria for the optic, its substrate, the bond geometry, surface preparation, application and cure. Common analysis practices will be compared to Finite Element models. The impact of stress in terms of distortion and level of risk of bond failure is highlighted. Trade-offs will be presented as aids in determination of the best approach. Some areas addressed will be different adhesive types, matching CTE's, stress effects, athermal bonds, monolithic designs, and the use of flexures.

  8. Testing static tradeoff theiry against pecking order models of capital ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We test two models with the purpose of finding the best empirical explanation for corporate financing choice of a cross section of 27 Nigerian quoted companies. The models were developed to represent the Static tradeoff Theory and the Pecking order Theory of capital structure with a view to make comparison between ...

  9. Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis. Appendix B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-05-25

    The results of the design trade-off studies and the sensitivity analysis of Phase I of the Near Term Hybrid Vehicle (NTHV) Program are presented. The effects of variations in the design of the vehicle body, propulsion systems, and other components on vehicle power, weight, cost, and fuel economy and an optimized hybrid vehicle design are discussed. (LCL)

  10. Choosing wisely: a model-based analysis evaluating the trade-offs in cancer benefit and diagnostic referrals among alternative HPV testing strategies in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Emily A; Pedersen, Kine; Sy, Stephen; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Kim, Jane J

    2017-09-05

    Forthcoming cervical cancer screening strategies involving human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women not vaccinated against HPV infections may increase colposcopy referral rates. We quantified health and resource trade-offs associated with alternative HPV-based algorithms to inform decision-makers when choosing between candidate algorithms. We used a mathematical simulation model of HPV-induced cervical carcinogenesis in Norway. We compared the current cytology-based strategy to alternative strategies that varied by the switching age to primary HPV testing (ages 25-34 years), the routine screening frequency (every 3-10 years), and management of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women. Model outcomes included reductions in lifetime cervical cancer risk, relative colposcopy rates, and colposcopy rates per cervical cancer prevented. The age of switching to primary HPV testing and the screening frequency had the largest impacts on cancer risk reductions, which ranged from 90.9% to 96.3% compared to no screening. In contrast, increasing the follow-up intensity of HPV-positive, cytology-negative women provided only minor improvements in cancer benefits, but generally required considerably higher rates of colposcopy referrals compared to current levels, resulting in less efficient cervical cancer prevention. We found that in order to maximise cancer benefits HPV-based screening among unvaccinated women should not be delayed: rather, policy makers should utilise the triage mechanism to control colposcopy referrals.

  11. A Goal Oriented Approach for Modeling and Analyzing Security Trade-Offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elahi, Golnaz; Yu, Eric

    In designing software systems, security is typically only one design objective among many. It may compete with other objectives such as functionality, usability, and performance. Too often, security mechanisms such as firewalls, access control, or encryption are adopted without explicit recognition of competing design objectives and their origins in stakeholder interests. Recently, there is increasing acknowledgement that security is ultimately about trade-offs. One can only aim for "good enough" security, given the competing demands from many parties. In this paper, we examine how conceptual modeling can provide explicit and systematic support for analyzing security trade-offs. After considering the desirable criteria for conceptual modeling methods, we examine several existing approaches for dealing with security trade-offs. From analyzing the limitations of existing methods, we propose an extension to the i* framework for security trade-off analysis, taking advantage of its multi-agent and goal orientation. The method was applied to several case studies used to exemplify existing approaches.

  12. Trade-off analysis of ecosystem services in Eastern Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijs, A.; Wossink, Ada; Kortelainen, M.; Alkemade, R.; Schulp, C.J.E.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we assess trade-offs between ecosystem services in a spatially explicit manner. From a supply side perspective, we estimate opportunity costs, which reflect in monetary terms the trade-offs between ecosystem services due to a marginal land use change. These are based on estimation of

  13. Contract Source Selection: An Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-15

    using- spss - statistics.php Lamoureux, J., Murrow, M., & Walls, C. (2015). Relationship of source selection methods to contract outcomes: an analysis ...Contract Source Selection: an Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff Strategies 15 June 2016 LCDR Jamal M. Osman, USN...ACQUISITION RESEARCH PROGRAM SPONSORED REPORT SERIES Contract Source Selection: an Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff

  14. Tradeoff Analysis for Combat Service Support Wireless Communications Alternatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burnette, John R.; Thibodeau, Christopher C.; Greitzer, Frank L.

    2002-02-28

    As the Army moves toward more mobile and agile forces and continued sustainment of numerous high-cost legacy logistics management systems, the requirement for wireless connectivity and a wireless network to supporting organizations has become ever more critical. There are currently several Army communications initiatives underway to resolve this wireless connectivity issue. However, to fully appreciate and understand the value of these initiatives, a Tradeoff Analysis is needed. The present study seeks to identify and assess solutions. The analysis identified issues that impede Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) communication system integration and outlined core requirements for sharing of logistics data between the field and Army battle command systems. Then, the analysis examined wireless communication alternatives as possible solutions for IBCT logistics communications problems. The current baseline system was compared with possible alternatives involving tactical radio systems, wireless/near term digital radio, cellular satellite, and third-generation (3G) wireless technologies. Cellular satellite and 3G wireless technologies offer clear advantages and should be considered for later IBCTs.

  15. Trade-off between growth and immune function : a meta-analysis of selection experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Most, Peter; de Jong, Berber; Parmentier, Henk K.; Verhulst, Simon

    P>1. Evidence suggests that developing and maintaining an effective immune system may be costly and that an organism has to make a trade-off between immune function and other fitness-enhancing traits. To test for a trade-off between growth and immune function we carried out a meta-analysis of data

  16. Identifying mechanisms that structure ecological communities by snapping model parameters to empirically observed tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas Clark, Adam; Lehman, Clarence; Tilman, David

    2018-04-01

    Theory predicts that interspecific tradeoffs are primary determinants of coexistence and community composition. Using information from empirically observed tradeoffs to augment the parametrisation of mechanism-based models should therefore improve model predictions, provided that tradeoffs and mechanisms are chosen correctly. We developed and tested such a model for 35 grassland plant species using monoculture measurements of three species characteristics related to nitrogen uptake and retention, which previous experiments indicate as important at our site. Matching classical theoretical expectations, these characteristics defined a distinct tradeoff surface, and models parameterised with these characteristics closely matched observations from experimental multi-species mixtures. Importantly, predictions improved significantly when we incorporated information from tradeoffs by 'snapping' characteristics to the nearest location on the tradeoff surface, suggesting that the tradeoffs and mechanisms we identify are important determinants of local community structure. This 'snapping' method could therefore constitute a broadly applicable test for identifying influential tradeoffs and mechanisms. © 2018 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. A Reference-Dependent Regret Model for Deterministic Trade-off Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2005-02-25

    Today's typical multi-criteria decision analysis is based on classical expected utility theory that assumes a mythical ''Rational Individual'' immune to psychological influences such as anticipated regret. It is therefore in conflict with rational individuals who trade-off some benefits and forgo the alternative with the highest total classical utility for a more balanced alternative in order to reduce their levels of anticipated regret. This paper focuses on decision making under certainty. It presents a reference-dependent regret model (RDRM) in which the level of regret that an individual experiences depends on the absolute values rather than the differences of the utilities of the chosen and forgone alternatives. The RDRM best choice may differ from the conventional linear additive utility model, the analytic hierarchy process, and the regret theory of Bell and Loomes and Sugden. Examples are presented that indicate that RDRM is the better predictive descriptor for decision making under certainty. RDRM satisfies transitivity of the alternatives under pairwise comparisons and models rank reversal consistent with observed reasonable choices under dynamic or distinct situations. Like regret theory, the RDRM utilities of all the alternatives under consideration are interrelated. For complex trade-off studies regret is incorporated as an element of a cost-utility-regret analysis that characterizes each alternative in terms of its monetary cost, an aggregate performance utility, and a regret value. This provides decision makers adequate information to compare the alternatives and depending on their values they may trade-off some performance and/or cost to avoid high levels of regret. The result is a well-balanced alternative often preferred by reasonable decision makers to the optimal choice of classical multi-attribute utility analysis. The model can readily be extended to incorporate rejoicing to suit decision makers who seek it. The

  18. Trade-Off Analysis between Concerns Based on Aspect-Oriented Requirements Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurito, Abelyn Methanie R.; Takada, Shingo

    The identification of functional and non-functional concerns is an important activity during requirements analysis. However, there may be conflicts between the identified concerns, and they must be discovered and resolved through trade-off analysis. Aspect-Oriented Requirements Engineering (AORE) has trade-off analysis as one of its goals, but most AORE approaches do not actually offer support for trade-off analysis; they focus on describing concerns and generating their composition. This paper proposes an approach for trade-off analysis based on AORE using use cases and the Requirements Conflict Matrix (RCM) to represent compositions. RCM shows the positive or negative effect of non-functional concerns over use cases and other non-functional concerns. Our approach is implemented within a tool called E-UCEd (Extended Use Case Editor). We also show the results of evaluating our tool.

  19. Can Economic Model Transparency Improve Provider Interpretation of Cost-effectiveness Analysis? Evaluating Tradeoffs Presented by the Second Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

    2017-11-01

    The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.

  20. Trade-off analysis of high-aspect-ratio-cooling-channels for rocket engines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pizzarelli, Marco; Nasuti, Francesco; Onofri, Marcello

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Aspect ratio has a significant effect on cooling efficiency and hydraulic losses. • Minimizing power loss is of paramount importance in liquid rocket engine cooling. • A suitable quasi-2D model is used to get fast cooling system analysis. • Trade-off with assigned weight, temperature, and channel height or wall thickness. • Aspect ratio is found that minimizes power loss in the cooling circuit. -- Abstract: High performance liquid rocket engines are often characterized by rectangular cooling channels with high aspect ratio (channel height-to-width ratio) because of their proven superior cooling efficiency with respect to a conventional design. However, the identification of the optimum aspect ratio is not a trivial task. In the present study a trade-off analysis is performed on a cooling channel system that can be of interest for rocket engines. This analysis requires multiple cooling channel flow calculations and thus cannot be efficiently performed by CFD solvers. Therefore, a proper numerical approach, referred to as quasi-2D model, is used to have fast and accurate predictions of cooling system properties. This approach relies on its capability of describing the thermal stratification that occurs in the coolant and in the wall structure, as well as the coolant warming and pressure drop along the channel length. Validation of the model is carried out by comparison with solutions obtained with a validated CFD solver. Results of the analysis show the existence of an optimum channel aspect ratio that minimizes the requested pump power needed to overcome losses in the cooling circuit

  1. Dynamic modeling of the tradeoff between productivity and safety in critical engineering systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowing, Michelle M.; Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, M.; Glynn, Peter W.

    2004-01-01

    Short-term tradeoffs between productivity and safety often exist in the operation of critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, offshore oil platforms, or simply individual cars. For example, interruption of operations for maintenance on demand can decrease short-term productivity but may be needed to ensure safety. Operations are interrupted for several reasons: scheduled maintenance, maintenance on demand, response to warnings, subsystem failure, or a catastrophic accident. The choice of operational procedures (e.g. timing and extent of scheduled maintenance) generally affects the probabilities of both production interruptions and catastrophic failures. In this paper, we present and illustrate a dynamic probabilistic model designed to describe the long-term evolution of such a system through the different phases of operation, shutdown, and possibly accident. The model's parameters represent explicitly the effects of different components' performance on the system's safety and reliability through an engineering probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In addition to PRA, a Markov model is used to track the evolution of the system and its components through different performance phases. The model parameters are then linked to different operations strategies, to allow computation of the effects of each management strategy on the system's long-term productivity and safety. Decision analysis is then used to support the management of the short-term trade-offs between productivity and safety in order to maximize long-term performance. The value function is that of plant managers, within the constraints set by local utility commissions and national (e.g. energy) agencies. This model is illustrated by the case of outages (planned and unplanned) in nuclear power plants to show how it can be used to guide policy decisions regarding outage frequency and plant lifetime, and more specifically, the choice of a reactor tripping policy as a function of the state of the

  2. Slow Steaming in Maritime Transportation: Fundamentals, Trade-offs, and Decision Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Psaraftis, Harilaos N.; Kontovas, Christos A.

    2015-01-01

    burned. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the practice of slow steaming from various angles. In that context, a taxonomy of models is presented, some fundamentals are outlined, the main trade-offs are analysed, and some decision models are presented. Some examples are finally presented so...

  3. Trade-off analysis for sustainability evaluation: a case study of the Purhepecha region, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speelman, E.N.; Astier, M.; López Ridaura, S.; Leffelaar, P.A.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the use and role of trade-off analysis as a decision-making tool in the implementation of new technologies and sustainability evaluation. As an example, soils in the Purhepecha region in Mexico have been eroding for decades and crop residue retention has been suggested as an

  4. Modelling the Volatility-Return Trade-off when Volatility may be Nonstationary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Iglesias, Emma M.

    In this paper a new GARCH-M type model, denoted the GARCH-AR, is proposed. In particular, it is shown that it is possible to generate a volatility-return trade-off in a regression model simply by introducing dynamics in the standardized disturbance process. Importantly, the volatility in the GARCH......, we provide an empirical illustration showing the empirical relevance of the GARCH-AR model based on modelling a wide range of leading US stock return series....

  5. The FIT Model - Fuel-cycle Integration and Tradeoffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, Steven J.; Soelberg, Nick R.; Bays, Samuel E.; Pereira, Candido; Pincock, Layne F.; Shaber, Eric L.; Teague, Melissa C.; Teske, Gregory M.; Vedros, Kurt G.

    2010-01-01

    All mass streams from fuel separation and fabrication are products that must meet some set of product criteria - fuel feedstock impurity limits, waste acceptance criteria (WAC), material storage (if any), or recycle material purity requirements such as zirconium for cladding or lanthanides for industrial use. These must be considered in a systematic and comprehensive way. The FIT model and the 'system losses study' team that developed it (Shropshire2009, Piet2010) are an initial step by the FCR and D program toward a global analysis that accounts for the requirements and capabilities of each component, as well as major material flows within an integrated fuel cycle. This will help the program identify near-term R and D needs and set longer-term goals. The question originally posed to the 'system losses study' was the cost of separation, fuel fabrication, waste management, etc. versus the separation efficiency. In other words, are the costs associated with marginal reductions in separations losses (or improvements in product recovery) justified by the gains in the performance of other systems? We have learned that that is the wrong question. The right question is: how does one adjust the compositions and quantities of all mass streams, given uncertain product criteria, to balance competing objectives including cost? FIT is a method to analyze different fuel cycles using common bases to determine how chemical performance changes in one part of a fuel cycle (say used fuel cooling times or separation efficiencies) affect other parts of the fuel cycle. FIT estimates impurities in fuel and waste via a rough estimate of physics and mass balance for a set of technologies. If feasibility is an issue for a set, as it is for 'minimum fuel treatment' approaches such as melt refining and AIROX, it can help to make an estimate of how performances would have to change to achieve feasibility.

  6. Of Uberfleas and Krakens: Detecting Trade-offs Using Mixed Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Careau, Vincent; Wilson, Robbie S

    2017-08-01

    All animals experience performance trade-offs as they complete tasks such as capturing prey, defending territories, acquiring mates, and escaping predators. Why then, is it so hard to detect performance trade-offs at the whole-organismal level? Why do we sometimes even obtain positive correlations between two performance traits that are predicted to be negatively associated? Here we explore two plausible explanations. First, most analyses are based on individual maximal values (i.e., personal best), which could introduce a bias in the correlation estimates. Second, phenotypic correlations alone may be poor indicators of a trade-off when contrasting processes occur at the among- versus within-individual levels. One such scenario is the "big houses big cars" model developed in life-history theory to explain the existence of "uberfleas" that are superior in all regards (because they acquire more resources than others). We highlight that the exact opposite scenario might occur for performance trade-offs, where among-individual trade-offs may be masked by within-individual changes in physical condition. One of the best ways to test among these alternative scenarios is to collect repeated pairs of performance traits and analyze them using multivariate mixed models (MMMs). MMMs allow straightforward and simultaneous examination of trait correlations at the among- and within-individual levels. We use a simple simulation tool (SQuID package in R) to create a population of Krakens, a mythical giant squid-like sea creature whose morphology generates a performance trade-off between swimming speed and strength or ability to sink ships. The simulations showed that using individual maximum values introduces a bias that is particularly severe when individuals differ in the number of repeated samples (ntrial). Finally, we show how MMMs can help detect performance (or any other type of) trade-offs and offer additional insights (e.g., help detect plasticity integration). We hope

  7. Cancer susceptibility and reproductive trade-offs: a model of the evolution of cancer defences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddy, Amy M; Kokko, Hanna; Breden, Felix; Wilkinson, Gerald S; Aktipis, C Athena

    2015-07-19

    The factors influencing cancer susceptibility and why it varies across species are major open questions in the field of cancer biology. One underexplored source of variation in cancer susceptibility may arise from trade-offs between reproductive competitiveness (e.g. sexually selected traits, earlier reproduction and higher fertility) and cancer defence. We build a model that contrasts the probabilistic onset of cancer with other, extrinsic causes of mortality and use it to predict that intense reproductive competition will lower cancer defences and increase cancer incidence. We explore the trade-off between cancer defences and intraspecific competition across different extrinsic mortality conditions and different levels of trade-off intensity, and find the largest effect of competition on cancer in species where low extrinsic mortality combines with strong trade-offs. In such species, selection to delay cancer and selection to outcompete conspecifics are both strong, and the latter conflicts with the former. We discuss evidence for the assumed trade-off between reproductive competitiveness and cancer susceptibility. Sexually selected traits such as ornaments or large body size require high levels of cell proliferation and appear to be associated with greater cancer susceptibility. Similar associations exist for female traits such as continuous egg-laying in domestic hens and earlier reproductive maturity. Trade-offs between reproduction and cancer defences may be instantiated by a variety of mechanisms, including higher levels of growth factors and hormones, less efficient cell-cycle control and less DNA repair, or simply a larger number of cell divisions (relevant when reproductive success requires large body size or rapid reproductive cycles). These mechanisms can affect intra- and interspecific variation in cancer susceptibility arising from rapid cell proliferation during reproductive maturation, intrasexual competition and reproduction. © 2015 The Author

  8. Analysis of costs-benefits tradeoffs of complex security systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, M.J.

    1996-01-01

    Essential to a systems approach to design of security systems is an analysis of the cost effectiveness of alternative designs. While the concept of analysis of costs and benefits is straightforward, implementation can be at the least tedious and, for complex designs and alternatives, can become nearly intractable without the help of structured analysis tools. PACAIT--Performance and Cost Analysis Integrated Tools--is a prototype tool. The performance side of the analysis collates and reduces data from ASSESS, and existing DOE PC-based security systems performance analysis tool. The costs side of the analysis uses ACE, an existing DOD PC-based costs analysis tool. Costs are reported over the full life-cycle of the system, that is, the costs to procure, operate, maintain and retire the system and all of its components. Results are collected in Microsoft reg-sign Excel workbooks and are readily available to analysts and decision makers in both tabular and graphical formats and at both the system and path-element levels

  9. Cost-resources trade-off analysis for long-range efficient plutonium consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Osamu; Nakano, Yasuyuki; Yasukawa, Shigeru

    1988-01-01

    JALTES-III, an analysis model using an optimization technique, is applied to the determination of major requirements for plutonium to serve as fuel for FRR on a paying basis and estimation of the possible reduction in natural uranium consumption. The analysis covers the period from 1970 to 2100. Optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle system is studied by using the following objective functions: overall system cost (COST), natural uranium consumption (NU) and trade-off function (COST + α·NU, where α is the premium related with the price of natural uranium). Assuming that there will be no escalation of the prices of system elements, competitive conditions for FBR are analyzed based on the effective price of natural uranium in relation with the above-mentioned premium: Po + (1 + D) t ·α, where Po is the basic price and D the discount rate. To minimize the term COST, FBR cannot be introduced and the natural uranium consumption will be 2,180,000 tons. To minimize NU, FBR should be introduced to the possible greatest degree, with the estimated natural uranium consumption being 900,000 tons. Analysis is also made of the relations of the introduction of FBRs with the effective price and total consumption of natural uranium. (Nogami, K.)

  10. A dynamic model to assess tradeoffs in power production and riverine ecosystem protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miara, Ariel; Vörösmarty, Charles J

    2013-06-01

    Major strategic planning decisions loom as society aims to balance energy security, economic development and environmental protection. To achieve such balance, decisions involving the so-called water-energy nexus must necessarily embrace a regional multi-power plant perspective. We present here the Thermoelectric Power & Thermal Pollution Model (TP2M), a simulation model that simultaneously quantifies thermal pollution of rivers and estimates efficiency losses in electricity generation as a result of fluctuating intake temperatures and river flows typically encountered across the temperate zone. We demonstrate the model's theoretical framework by carrying out sensitivity tests based on energy, physical and environmental settings. We simulate a series of five thermoelectric plants aligned along a hypothetical river, where we find that warm ambient temperatures, acting both as a physical constraint and as a trigger for regulatory limits on plant operations directly reduce electricity generation. As expected, environmental regulation aimed at reducing thermal loads at a single plant reduces power production at that plant, but ironically can improve the net electricity output from multiple plants when they are optimally co-managed. On the technology management side, high efficiency can be achieved through the use of natural gas combined cycle plants, which can raise the overall efficiency of the aging population of plants, including that of coal. Tradeoff analysis clearly shows the benefit of attaining such high efficiencies, in terms of both limiting thermal loads that preserve ecosystem services and increasing electricity production that benefits economic development.

  11. Modelling the economic tradeoffs between allocating water for crop ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-06-05

    Jun 5, 2009 ... for crop production or leaching for salinity management ... reduce the area irrigated under limited water supply conditions in .... same as ECe because the concentration of salts in the soil is .... to-scale (VRS) (Banker et al., 1984) DEA model. ... ensures that the interpolated input used for the reference units.

  12. Modelling the economic trade-offs of irrigation pipeline investments ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Soil Water Irrigation Planning and Energy Management (SWIP-E) mathematical programming model was developed and applied in this paper to provide decision support regarding the optimal mainline pipe diameter, irrigation system delivery capacity and size of the irrigation system. SWIP-E unifies the interrelated ...

  13. Exploring trade-offs between fisheries and conservation of the vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus using an Atlantis ecosystem model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Minimizing fishery bycatch threats might involve trade-offs between maintaining viable populations and economic benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help managers reconcile conflicting goals. An example is a set of bycatch reduction measures for the Critically Endangered vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus, in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico. The vaquita is an endemic species threatened with extinction by artisanal net bycatch within its limited range; in this area fisheries are the chief source of economic productivity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyze trade-offs between conservation of the vaquita and fisheries, using an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model for the Northern Gulf of California. Atlantis is a spatially-explicit model intended as a strategic tool to test alternative management strategies. We simulated increasingly restrictive fisheries regulations contained in the vaquita conservation plan: implementing progressively larger spatial management areas that exclude gillnets, shrimp driftnets and introduce a fishing gear that has no vaquita bycatch. We found that only the most extensive spatial management scenarios recovered the vaquita population above the threshold necessary to downlist the species from Critically Endangered. The scenario that excludes existing net gear from the 2008 area of vaquita distribution led to moderate decrease in net present value (US$ 42 million relative to the best-performing scenario and a two-fold increase in the abundance of adult vaquita over the course of 30 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Extended spatial management resulted in the highest recovery of the vaquita population. The economic cost of proposed management actions was unequally divided between fishing fleets; the loss of value from finfish gillnet fisheries was never recovered. Our analysis shows that managers will have to confront difficult trade-offs between management scenarios for vaquita conservation.

  14. A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de; Antunes, Carlos Henggeler; Freire, Fausto; Henriques, Carla Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    A multi-objective linear programming (MOLP) model based on a hybrid Input–Output (IO) framework is presented. This model aims at assessing the trade-offs between economic, energy, environmental (E3) and social objectives in the Brazilian economic system. This combination of multi-objective models with Input–Output Analysis (IOA) plays a supplementary role in understanding the interactions between the economic and energy systems, and the corresponding impacts on the environment, offering a consistent framework for assessing the effects of distinct policies on these systems. Firstly, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is reorganized to include the National Energy Balance, creating a hybrid IO framework that is extended to assess Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and the employment level. The objective functions considered are the maximization of GDP (gross domestic product) and employment levels, as well as the minimization of energy consumption and GHG emissions. An interactive method enabling a progressive and selective search of non-dominated solutions with distinct characteristics and underlying trade-offs is utilized. Illustrative results indicate that the maximization of GDP and the employment levels lead to an increase of both energy consumption and GHG emissions, while the minimization of either GHG emissions or energy consumption cause negative impacts on GDP and employment. - Highlights: • A hybrid Input–Output multi-objective model is applied to the Brazilian economy. • Objective functions are GDP, employment level, energy consumption and GHG emissions. • Interactive search process identifies trade-offs between the competing objectives. • Positive correlations between GDP growth and employment. • Positive correlations between energy consumption and GHG emissions

  15. Robust broadband nanopositioning: fundamental trade-offs, analysis, and design in a two-degree-of-freedom control framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies and analyses fundamental trade-offs between positioning resolution, tracking bandwidth, and robustness to modeling uncertainties in two-degree-of-freedom (2DOF) control designs for nanopositioning systems. The analysis of these systems is done in optimal control setting with various architectural constraints imposed on the 2DOF framework. In terms of these trade-offs, our analysis shows that the primary role of feedback is providing robustness to the closed-loop device whereas the feedforward component is mainly effective in overcoming fundamental algebraic constraints that limit the feedback-only designs. This paper presents (1) an optimal prefilter model matching design for a system with an existing feedback controller, (2) a simultaneous feedforward and feedback control design in an optimal mixed sensitivity framework, and (3) a 2DOF optimal robust model matching design. The experimental results on applying these controllers show a significant improvement, as high as 330% increase in bandwidth for similar robustness and resolution over optimal feedback-only designs. Other performance objectives can be improved similarly. We demonstrate that the 2DOF freedom design achieves performance specifications that are analytically impossible for feedback-only designs.

  16. Analysis of environmental and economic tradeoffs in switchgrass supply chains for biofuel production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhong, Jia; Yu, T. Edward; Larson, James A.; English, Burton C.; Fu, Joshua S.; Calcagno, James

    2016-01-01

    This study considered the environmental advantages of switchgrass, along with the economic challenges in its logistics, in the design of a sustainable switchgrass supply chain in Tennessee. Applying a multi-objective optimization model to high-resolution spatial data, potential tradeoffs among the objectives of minimizing feedstock costs, GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, and soil erosion were identified for a set of conversion facilities on an efficient frontier. The tradeoff relationship was primarily driven by the type of agricultural land converted to switchgrass. Hay and pasture lands were more cost effective but resulted in higher soil carbon losses and soil erosion after being converted to switchgrass. Converting crop lands reduced GHG emissions and soil erosion but caused higher feedstock cost primarily due to the higher opportunity cost of land use. The respective average costs of abating GHG emissions and soil erosion on the efficient frontier were $2378 Mg"−"1 and $10 Mg"−"1. The compromise solution conversion facility site generated 63% higher feedstock cost compared to the cost minimizing location, while reducing soil erosion by 70 fold and diminishing GHG emissions by 27%. Reducing soil erosion may be a more cost effective environmental criterion than reducing GHG emissions in developing a sustainable switchgrass supply chain in Tennessee. - Highlights: • Multi-objective optimization is applied to a switchgrass supply chain in Tennessee. • Tradeoffs are identified among costs, greenhouse gas, and soil erosion in supply chain. • The type of agricultural land converted to feedstock is a key factor to the tradeoffs. • Abating soil erosion rather than greenhouse gas is more cost effective in Tennessee.

  17. Analysis of self-overlap reveals trade-offs in plankton swimming trajectories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mariani, Patrizio; Visser, Andre W.; Mazzocchi, Maria Grazia

    2014-01-01

    Movement is a fundamental behaviour of organisms that not only brings about beneficial encounters with resources and mates, but also at the same time exposes the organism to dangerous encounters with predators. The movement patterns adopted by organisms should reflect a balance between...... these contrasting processes. This trade-off can be hypothesized as being evident in the behaviour of plankton, which inhabit a dilute three-dimensional environment with few refuges or orienting landmarks. We present an analysis of the swimming path geometries based on a volumetric Monte Carlo sampling approach...

  18. A social-ecological analysis of ecosystem services supply and trade-offs in European wood-pastures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartel, Tibor

    2018-01-01

    Wood-pastures are complex social-ecological systems (SES), which are the product of long-term interaction between society and its surrounding landscape. Traditionally characterized by multifunctional low-intensity management that enhanced a wide range of ecosystem services (ES), current farm management has shifted toward more intensive farm models. This study assesses the supply of ES in four study areas dominated by managed wood-pastures in Spain, Sweden, and Romania. On the basis of 144 farm surveys and the use of multivariate techniques, we characterize farm management and structure in the study areas and identify the trade-offs in ES supply associated with this management. We link these trade-offs to multiple factors that characterize the landholding: economic, social, environmental, technological, and governance. Finally, we analyze how landholders’ values and perspectives have an effect on management decisions. Results show a differentiated pattern of ES supply in the four study areas. We identified four types of trade-offs in ES supply that appear depending on what is being promoted by the farm management and that are associated with different dimensions of wood-pasture management: productivity-related trade-offs, crop production–related trade-offs, multifunctionality-related trade-offs, and farm accessibility–related trade-offs. These trade-offs are influenced by complex interactions between the properties of the SES, which have a direct influence on landholders’ perspectives and motivations. The findings of this paper advance the understanding of the dynamics between agroecosystems and society and can inform system-based agricultural and conservation policies. PMID:29732404

  19. A Regional Analysis of the Life Cycle Environmental and Economic Tradeoffs of Different Economic Growth Paths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiwei Mo

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Different economic development strategies may result in varied socioeconomic and environmental synergies or tradeoffs, suggesting an opportunity for environmentally conscious planning. To understand such synergies or tradeoffs, a dynamic environmental life cycle assessment was conducted for eleven groups of New Hampshire industries. Historical state level Gross Domestic Product (GDP-by-industry data was combined with economic input-output analysis to calculate the direct and life cycle energy use, freshwater use, greenhouse gas emissions, and eutrophication potential of each industry on a yearly basis for the period of 1997–2012. The future development of agriculture, traditional manufacturing, high tech, and tourism industries were investigated based on government projections. Total life cycle impacts of the 11 industries were found to represent around three to seven times those of direct impacts, indicating the significance of the supply chain impacts. Traditional manufacturing has the highest life cycle impacts even though it contributes to less than 10% of the state GDP. Future development of high tech was found to be the best strategy to increase GDP while imposing the least additional environmental impacts. Tourism presents relatively high impacts in terms of freshwater use and eutrophication potential, and a change in recreational style might be able to reduce its impacts.

  20. Module-based analysis of robustness tradeoffs in the heat shock response system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Kurata

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems have evolved complex regulatory mechanisms, even in situations where much simpler designs seem to be sufficient for generating nominal functionality. Using module-based analysis coupled with rigorous mathematical comparisons, we propose that in analogy to control engineering architectures, the complexity of cellular systems and the presence of hierarchical modular structures can be attributed to the necessity of achieving robustness. We employ the Escherichia coli heat shock response system, a strongly conserved cellular mechanism, as an example to explore the design principles of such modular architectures. In the heat shock response system, the sigma-factor sigma32 is a central regulator that integrates multiple feedforward and feedback modules. Each of these modules provides a different type of robustness with its inherent tradeoffs in terms of transient response and efficiency. We demonstrate how the overall architecture of the system balances such tradeoffs. An extensive mathematical exploration nevertheless points to the existence of an array of alternative strategies for the existing heat shock response that could exhibit similar behavior. We therefore deduce that the evolutionary constraints facing the system might have steered its architecture toward one of many robustly functional solutions.

  1. Demographic trade-offs in a neutral model explain death-rate--abundance-rank relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kui; Zhang, Da-Yong; He, Fangliang

    2009-01-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity has been criticized for its neglect of species differences. Yet it is much less heeded that S. P. Hubbell's definition of neutrality allows species to differ in their birth and death rates as long as they have an equal per capita fitness. Using the lottery model of competition we find that fitness equalization through birth-death trade-offs can make species coexist longer than expected for demographically identical species, whereas the probability of monodominance for a species under zero-sum neutral dynamics is equal to its initial relative abundance. Furthermore, if newly arising species in a community survive preferentially they are more likely to slip through the quagmire of rareness, thus creating a strong selective bias favoring their community membership. On the other hand, high-mortality species, once having gained a footing in the community, are more likely to become abundant due to their compensatory high birth rates. This unexpected result explains why a positive association between species abundance and per capita death rate can be seen in tropical-forest communities. An explicit incorporation of interspecific trade-offs between birth and death into the neutral theory increases the theory's realism as well as its predictive power.

  2. Tradeoff analysis for Dependable Real-Time Embedded Systems during the Early Design Phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gan, Junhe

    Embedded systems are becoming increasingly complex and have tight competing constraints in terms of performance, cost, energy consumption, dependability, flexibility, security, etc. The objective of this thesis is to propose design methods and tools for supporting the tradeoff analysis of competing...... to processing elements, as well as the processor voltage and frequency levels for executing each task, such that transient faults are tolerated, the real-time constraints of the application are satisfied, and the energy consumed is minimized. In this thesis, we target the early design phases, when decisions...... have a high impact on the subsequent implementation choices. However, due to a lack of information, the early design phases are characterized by uncertainties, e.g., in the worst-case execution times (WCETs), in the functionality requirements, or in the hardware component costs. In this context, we...

  3. Privacy versus autonomy: a tradeoff model for smart home monitoring technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Daphne; Knoefel, Frank; Goubran, Rafik

    2011-01-01

    Smart homes are proposed as a new location for the delivery of healthcare services. They provide healthcare monitoring and communication services, by using integrated sensor network technologies. We validate a hypothesis regarding older adults' adoption of home monitoring technologies by conducting a literature review of articles studying older adults' attitudes and perceptions of sensor technologies. Using current literature to support the hypothesis, this paper applies the tradeoff model to decisions about sensor acceptance. Older adults are willing to trade privacy (by accepting a monitoring technology), for autonomy. As the information captured by the sensor becomes more intrusive and the infringement on privacy increases, sensors are accepted if the loss in privacy is traded for autonomy. Even video cameras, the most intrusive sensor type were accepted in exchange for the height of autonomy which is to remain in the home.

  4. Trade-off analysis in the Northern Andes to study the dynamics in agricultural land use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoorvogel, J.J.; Antle, J.M.; Crissman, C.C.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we hypothesize that land use change can be induced by non-linearities and thresholds in production systems that impact farmers' decision making. Tradeoffs between environmental and economic indicators is a useful way to represent dynamic properties of agricultural systems. The Tradeoff

  5. Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

  6. Cost, Emissions, and Customer Service Trade-Off Analysis In Pickup and Delivery Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    This research offers a novel formulation for including emissions into fleet assignment and vehicle routing, and for the : trade-offs faced by fleet operators between cost, emissions, and service quality. This approach enables evaluation of : the impa...

  7. Exergy analysis of large-scale helium liquefiers: Evaluating design trade-offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Rijo Jacob; Ghosh, Parthasarathi; Chowdhury, Kanchan

    2014-01-01

    It is known that higher heat exchanger area, more number of expanders with higher efficiency and more involved configuration with multi-pressure compression system increase the plant efficiency of a helium liquefier. However, they involve higher capital investment and larger size. Using simulation software Aspen Hysys v 7.0 and exergy analysis as the tool of analysis, authors have attempted to identify various trade-offs while selecting the number of stages, the pressure levels in compressor, the cold-end configuration, the heat exchanger surface area, the maximum allowable pressure drop in heat exchangers, the efficiency of expanders, the parallel/series connection of expanders etc. Use of more efficient cold ends reduces the number of refrigeration stages and the size of the plant. For achieving reliability along with performance, a configuration with a combination of expander and Joule-Thomson valve is found to be a better choice for cold end. Use of multi-pressure system is relevant only when the number of refrigeration stages is more than 5. Arrangement of expanders in series reduces the number of expanders as well as the heat exchanger size with slight expense of plant efficiency. Superior heat exchanger (having less pressure drop per unit heat transfer area) results in only 5% increase of plant performance even when it has 100% higher heat exchanger surface area.

  8. Analysis of the trade-offs between conventional and superconducting interconnections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frye, R.

    1989-01-01

    Superconductivity can now be achieved at temperatures compatible with semiconductor device operation. This raises the interesting possibility of using the new, high-temperature superconducting ceramics for interconnections in electronic systems. This paper examines some of the consequences of a resistance-free interconnection medium. A problem with conventional conductors in electronic systems is that the resistance of wires increases quadratically as the wire dimensions are scaled down. Below some minimum cross-sectional area, determined by the metal resistivity and wire length, the resistance in these lines begins to severely limit their bandwidth. Superconductors, on the other hand, are not constrained by the same scaling rules. They provide a high bandwidth interconnection at all sizes and lengths. The limitations for superconductors are set by their critical current densities. If line dimensions become too small, a superconductor will no longer support an adequate flow of current. An analysis is presented examining the performance trade-offs for conventional and superconducting interconnections in applications ranging from printed wiring boards to chips. For most semiconductor device-based applications, the potential gains in wiring density offered by superconductors are probably more important than the bandwidth improvements. An important result of the analysis is that it determines the values of critical current density above which superconductors outperform conventional wires in systems of various physical sizes. This identifies particular interconnection technologies for which high-temperature superconductors show the most promise

  9. A Multi-Objective Trade-Off Model in Sustainable Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on the consideration of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives and the inherent nature of sustainable construction projects, this study proposes that the contractor can balance the levels of efforts and resources used to improve the overall project sustainability. A multi-objective trade-off model using game theory was established and verified through simulation and numerical example under a moral hazard situation. Results indicate that effort levels of the contractor on sustainability-related objectives are positively related to the outcome coefficient while negatively to the coefficients of effort cost of the relevant objectives. High levels of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives contribute to high levels of effort of the contractor. With the variation in effort levels and the coefficient of benefit allocation, the project net benefit increases before declining. The function of project benefit has a marked peak value, with an inverted “U” shape. An equilibrium always exists as for the given relative importance and coefficients of the effort costs of sustainability-related objectives. Under this condition, the owner may offer the contractor a less intense incentive and motivate the contractor reasonably arranging input resources. The coefficient of benefit allocation is affected by the contractor characteristic factors and the project characteristic factors. The owner should balance these two types of factors and select the most appropriate incentive mechanism to improve the project benefit. Meanwhile, the contractor can balance the relative importance of the objectives and arrange the appropriate levels of effort and resources to achieve a sustainability-related objective. Very few studies have emphasized the effects of the relative importance of sustainability-related objectives on the benefits of sustainable construction projects. This study therefore builds a multi-objective trade-off

  10. Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

    2011-03-15

    The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

  11. The development of renewable energies and supply security: A trade-off analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röpke, Luise

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of the green transformation on the German electricity sector with respect to the energy-political triangle. It focuses on how the development of renewable energies will affect security of electricity supply. In a cost–benefit analysis, the value of supply security is compared with its costs of provision. More specifically, the benefits of maintaining the present quality of electricity supply are the avoided social damages from electricity outages and are compared with the respective investment costs in the low- and medium-voltage distribution grid. It is shown that the transformation process towards a green and decentralized production structure will be costly for society, even though the costs can be reduced by different measures. - Highlights: • The effects of the transformation on the German electricity sector are analyzed. • The paper focuses on the trade-off between green energies and supply security. • The benefits of maintaining supply quality are compared with the investment costs. • The costs of maintaining supply quality by far exceed the induced welfare gains. • A strong focus on renewable energies endangers different energy-political goals

  12. Spatially and Temporally Resolved Analysis of Environmental Trade-Offs in Electricity Generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peer, Rebecca A M; Garrison, Jared B; Timms, Craig P; Sanders, Kelly T

    2016-04-19

    The US power sector is a leading contributor of emissions that affect air quality and climate. It also requires a lot of water for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Although these impacts affect ecosystems and human health unevenly in space and time, there has been very little quantification of these environmental trade-offs on decision-relevant scales. This work quantifies hourly water consumption, emissions (i.e., carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur oxides), and marginal heat rates for 252 electricity generating units (EGUs) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region in 2011 using a unit commitment and dispatch model (UC&D). Annual, seasonal, and daily variations, as well as spatial variability are assessed. When normalized over the grid, hourly average emissions and water consumption intensities (i.e., output per MWh) are found to be highest when electricity demand is the lowest, as baseload EGUs tend to be the most water and emissions intensive. Results suggest that a large fraction of emissions and water consumption are caused by a small number of power plants, mainly baseload coal-fired generators. Replacing 8-10 existing power plants with modern natural gas combined cycle units would result in reductions of 19-29%, 51-55%, 60-62%, and 13-27% in CO2 emissions, NOx emissions, SOx emissions, and water consumption, respectively, across the ERCOT region for two different conversion scenarios.

  13. Dissociable mechanisms of speed-accuracy tradeoff during visual perceptual learning are revealed by a hierarchical drift diffusion model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaxiang eZhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Two phenomena are commonly observed in decision-making. First, there is a speed-accuracy tradeoff such that decisions are slower and more accurate when instructions emphasize accuracy over speed, and vice versa. Second, decision performance improves with practice, as a task is learnt. The speed-accuracy tradeoff and learning effects have been explained under a well-established evidence-accumulation framework for decision-making, which suggests that evidence supporting each choice is accumulated over time, and a decision is committed to when the accumulated evidence reaches a decision boundary. This framework suggests that changing the decision boundary creates the tradeoff between decision speed and accuracy, while increasing the rate of accumulation leads to more accurate and faster decisions after learning. However, recent studies challenged the view that speed-accuracy tradeoff and learning are associated with changes in distinct, single decision parameters. Further, the influence of speed-accuracy instructions over the course of learning remains largely unknown. Here, we used a hierarchical drift-diffusion model to examine the speed-accuracy tradeoff during learning of a coherent motion discrimination task across multiple training sessions, and a transfer test session. The influence of speed-accuracy instructions was robust over training and generalized across untrained stimulus features. Emphasizing decision accuracy rather than speed was associated with increased boundary separation, drift rate and non-decision time at the beginning of training. However, after training, an emphasis on decision accuracy was only associated with increased boundary separation. In addition, faster and more accurate decisions after learning were due to a gradual decrease in boundary separation and an increase in drift rate. The results suggest that speed-accuracy instructions and learning differentially shape decision-making processes at different time scales.

  14. Understanding performance properties of chemical engines under a trade-off optimization: Low-dissipation versus endoreversible model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, F. R.; Zhang, Rong; Li, Huichao; Li, C. N.; Liu, Wei; Bai, Long

    2018-05-01

    The trade-off criterion is used to systemically investigate the performance features of two chemical engine models (the low-dissipation model and the endoreversible model). The optimal efficiencies, the dissipation ratios, and the corresponding ratios of the dissipation rates for two models are analytically determined. Furthermore, the performance properties of two kinds of chemical engines are precisely compared and analyzed, and some interesting physics is revealed. Our investigations show that the certain universal equivalence between two models is within the framework of the linear irreversible thermodynamics, and their differences are rooted in the different physical contexts. Our results can contribute to a precise understanding of the general features of chemical engines.

  15. Diversity-Multiplexing-Nulling Trade-Off Analysis of Multiuser MIMO System for Intercell Interference Coordination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinwoo Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental performance trade-off of multicell multiuser multiple-input multiple-output (MU-MIMO systems is explored for achieving intercell and intracell interference-free conditions. In particular, we analyze the three-dimensional diversity-multiplexing-nulling trade-off (DMNT among the diversity order (i.e., the slope of the error performance curve, multiplexing order (i.e., the number of users that are simultaneously served by MU-MIMO, and nulling order (i.e., the number of users with zero interference in a victim cell. This trade-off quantifies the performance of MU-MIMO in terms of its diversity and multiplexing order, while nulling the intercell interference toward the victim cell in the neighbor. First, we design a precoding matrix to mitigate both intercell and intracell interference for a linear precoding-based MU-MIMO system. Then, the trade-off relationship is obtained by analyzing the distribution of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR at the user terminals. Furthermore, we demonstrate how DMNT can be applied to estimate the long-term throughput for each mobile station, which allows for determining the optimal number of multiplexing order and throughput loss due to the interference nulling.

  16. Balancing tradeoffs in the Denali Wilderness: an expanded approach to normative research using stated choice analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven R. Lawson; Robert Manning

    2002-01-01

    Wilderness experiences are thought to be comprised of or defined by three dimensions, including social, resource, and management conditions. Decisions about how to manage wilderness recreation in Denali National Park involve potential tradeoffs among the conditions of resource, social, and managerial attributes of the wilderness experience. This study expands the...

  17. The hare or the tortoise? Modeling optimal speed-accuracy tradeoff settings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ravenzwaaij, D.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is strongly influenced by the speed-accuracy trade-off. In this dissertation, I have tackled the issue of speed versus accuracy from both a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint and have been drawn time and time again to the same inescapable conclusion: speeded decision making

  18. Privacy and security perceptions of european citizens: A test of the trade-off model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedewald, M.; Lieshout, M. van; Rung, S.; Ooms, M.; Ypma, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the relationship between privacy and security and, in particular, the traditional “trade-off” paradigm that argues that citizens might be willing to sacrifice some privacy for more security. Academics have long argued against the trade-off paradigm, but these arguments have

  19. The lack of theoretical support for using person trade-offs in QALY-type models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2009-01-01

    -adjusted life years (DALYs). This paper discusses the theoretical support for the use of person trade-offs in QALY-type measurement of (changes in) population health. It argues that measures of this type based on such quality-adjustment factors almost always violate the Pareto principle, and so lack normative...

  20. Use of Tumor Markers in Gastrointestinal Cancers: Surgeon Perceptions and Cost-Benefit Trade-Off Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Amish; Markar, Sheraz R; Matar, Michael; Ni, Melody; Hanna, George B

    2017-05-01

    Gastrointestinal cancers constitute the third most common cancers worldwide. Tumor markers have long since been used in the postoperative surveillance of these malignancies; however, the true value in clinical practice remains undetermined. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of three tumor markers in colorectal and esophagogastric cancer. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to elicit the sensitivity, specificity, statistical heterogeneity and ability to predict recurrence and metastases for carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), cancer antigen (CA) 19-9 and CA125. European surgeons were surveyed to assess their current practice and the characteristics of tumor markers they most valued. Data from the included studies and survey were combined in a cost-benefit trade-off analysis to assess which tumor markers are of most use in clinical practice. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were ranked the most desirable characteristics of a tumor marker by those surveyed. Overall, 156 studies were included to inform the cost-benefit trade-off. The cost-benefit trade-off showed that CEA outperformed both CA19-9 and CA125, with lower financial cost and a higher sensitivity, and diagnostic accuracy for metastases at presentation (area under the curve [AUC] 0.70 vs. 0.61 vs. 0.46), as well as similar diagnostic accuracy for recurrence (AUC 0.46 vs. 0.48). Cost-benefit trade-off analysis identified CEA to be the best performing tumor marker. Further studies should seek to evaluate new tumor markers, with investigation tailored to factors that meet the requirements of practicing clinicians.

  1. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  2. Modeling trade-offs between plant fiber and toxins: a framework for quantifying risks perceived by foraging herbivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Meghan J; Shipley, Lisa A; Johnson, Timothy R; Forbey, Jennifer Sorensen; Rachlow, Janet L; Crowell, Miranda M

    2015-12-01

    When selecting habitats, herbivores must weigh multiple risks, such as predation, starvation, toxicity, and thermal stress, forcing them to make fitness trade-offs. Here, we applied the method of paired comparisons (PC) to investigate how herbivores make trade-offs between habitat features that influence selection of food patches. The method of PC measures utility and the inverse of utility, relative risk, and makes trade-offs and indifferences explicit by forcing animals to make choices between two patches with different types of risks. Using a series of paired-choice experiments to titrate the equivalence curve and find the marginal rate of substitution for one risk over the other, we evaluated how toxin-tolerant (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis) and fiber-tolerant (mountain cottontail rabbit Sylviagus nuttallii) herbivores differed in their hypothesized perceived risk of fiber and toxins in food. Pygmy rabbits were willing to consume nearly five times more of the toxin 1,8-cineole in their diets to avoid consuming higher levels of fiber than were mountain cottontails. Fiber posed a greater relative risk for pygmy rabbits than cottontails and cineole a greater risk for cottontails than pygmy rabbits. Our flexible modeling approach can be used to (1) quantify how animals evaluate and trade off multiple habitat attributes when the benefits and risks are difficult to quantify, and (2) integrate diverse risks that influence fitness and habitat selection into a single index of habitat value. This index potentially could be applied to landscapes to predict habitat selection across several scales.

  3. Contract Source Selection: An Analysis of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable and Tradeoff Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    it can start moderately, and as it progresses to the right, price is seen to be less important than the advantage (non-cost factor) gained. 3... advantages compared to the LPTA source selection strategy. These include “learning,” “ business judgment,” “flexibility,” and “customer satisfaction...2014, p. 5). The next advantage is the use of business judgment. The tradeoff source selection strategy is highly subjective and this allows the source

  4. Ideology, family policy and gender economic inequality: Different models, different tradeoffs

    OpenAIRE

    Mandel, Hadas

    2007-01-01

    This paper focuses on cross-national differences in patterns of gender economic inequality, revealing their affinity to both welfare state policies and prevailing conceptions of gender equality. By mapping multiple aspects of inequality and assembling them into distinctive profiles, the paper shows that each pattern of state intervention is accompanied by an uneven record of achievements and failures in promoting gender equality. These tradeoffs can best be understood by placing them in the i...

  5. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  6. Mapping and quantifying ecosystem services: analysis of trade-offs and synergies at the different spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek

    2014-05-01

    The importance of conserving the natural environment has been known for a long time. It can be fulfilled by designation of protected areas as well as proper management of broader landscapes. During past two decades, conservation has shifted from a predominantly species- and habitat-focus to a more holistic "ecosystem approach" with an emphasis on "ecosystem services", which underpin the benefits which society can obtain (directly or indirectly) from ecosystems. This study aims to investigate and compare existing land use prioritization models and to develop new GIS-based frameworks for analysis for different spatial scales. Research were carried out in several conservation areas in UK and Poland. Main focus was on regulating (including regulation of soil erosion and landslide susceptibility) and recreation services. A new GIS-based model was developed which enabled to analysis of this services. Different spatial scales, ranging from whole conservation areas to single catchments were chosen for mapping and quantifying. Based on different scenarios three sets of ecosystem services were calculated. Data contained specific land-cover/land-use resulting from the different strategy of the natural conservation for each of the study sites. Modelling was carried out based on the trends identified on the basis of past changes in land-use/land-cover (based on analysis of time-series satellite images), and the probability of a particular class of land-use/land-cover for the chosen scenario. Comparison between results revealed ecosystem service tradeoffs (when the obtaining of one service results in the reducing of another service) and synergies (when multiple services can be provides simultaneously). Results of the study shows where (and under which condition): (1) conservation areas can accommodate more visitors and in the same time provide regulation of soil erosion and protection against landslide developments, (2) further development of recreation services will lead to

  7. Optimal Design and Tradeoff Analysis of Planar Transformer in High-Power DC–DC Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ouyang, Ziwei; Thomsen, Ole Cornelius; Andersen, Michael A. E.

    2012-01-01

    The trend toward high power density, high operating frequency, and low profile in power converters has exposed a number of limitations in the use of conventional wire-wound magnetic component structures. A planar magnetic is a low-profile transformer or inductor utilizing planar windings, instead...... of the traditional windings made of Cu wires. In this paper, the most important factors for planar transformer (PT) design including winding loss, core loss, leakage inductance, and stray capacitance have individually been investigated. The tradeoffs among these factors have to be analyzed in order to achieve...

  8. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  9. CSDFa: a model for exploiting the trade-off between data and pipeline parallelism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koek, Peter; Geuns, S.J.; Hausmans, J.P.H.M.; Corporaal, Henk; Bekooij, Marco Jan Gerrit

    2016-01-01

    Real-time stream processing applications, such as SDR applications, are often executed concurrently on multiprocessor systems. A unified data flow model and analysis method have been proposed that can be used to simultaneously determine the amount of pipeline and coarse-grained data parallelism

  10. Trade-off analysis of ecosystem service provision in nature networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogdrup-Schmidt, Mathias; Strange, Niels; Olsen, Søren Bøye

    2017-01-01

    We propose a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis approach as a value-focused decision support tool for evaluating land use change decisions affecting multiple ecosystem services. In an empirical case study concerned with creating a robust and interconnected network of natural areas in a Danish...... municipality, we first conduct a biophysical and economic baseline mapping of ecosystem services. We then construct a spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis model which is utilized to identify candidate areas for inclusion in the network. We define a base scenario for future land use in the area......, where all criteria have equal weight, and assess the outcome in terms of welfare economic benefits of ecosystem services and opportunity cost of reducing forest and agricultural production. As weights in multi-criteria analysis is innately a subjective task, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using four...

  11. Analysis and Evaluation of Performance Gains and Tradeoffs for Massive MIMO Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saba Qasim Jabbar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Massive MIMO technique offers significant performance gains for the future of wireless communications via improving the spectral efficiency, energy efficiency and the channel quality with simple linear processing such as maximum-ratio transmission (MRT or zero-forcing (ZF by providing each user a large degree of freedom. In this paper, the system performance gains are studied in a multi-cell downlink massive MIMO system under the main considerations such as perfect channel estimation, imperfect channel estimation and the effect of interference among cells due to pilot sequences contamination. Then, mathematical expressions are derived for these gains i.e., spatial multiplexing gain, array gain and spatial diversity gain. After that, essential tradeoffs among these gains are considered under the effect of non-orthogonal interference, these tradeoffs are: spatial diversity gain vs. spatial multiplexing gain and array gain vs. spatial multiplexing gain. Simulation results show that the unbounded number of base station antennas boosts the array gain through concentrating the energy to spatial directions where users are sited, hence diminishing loss in array gain due to pilot contamination. The simulation results reveal also that massive MIMO strengthens the spatial multiplexing gain through increasing the number of served users via the same system resources in spite the effect of inter-cell interference. Finally, the spatial diversity gain is measured in term of outage probability and the simulation results show that raising the number of antennas will improve the outage probability. Meanwhile increasing the number of served users will lead to degrade the outage probability per user due to non-orthogonal interference from other cells.

  12. A Modelling Approach for Integrated Planning of Port Capacity- Trade-Offs in Rotterdam Investment Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sander Dekker

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modelling approach for planning ofport capacity. The approach integrates port commercial andpublic interests. It further incorporates route competition andautonomous demand growth. It is applied to port expansion,which can be considered as a strategy for an individual port todeal with route competition. The basis for solving this planningproblem comprises an analysis of port demand and supply in apartial equilibrium model. With such an approach, the reactionof a single port on the change in a transport network comprisingalternative routes to a hinterland destination can be simulated.To establish the optimal expansion strategy, port expansion iscombined with congestion pricing. This is used for the simultaneousdetermination of 1 optimal expansion size, and 2 investmentrecovery period. The modelling approach will be appliedto Rotterdam port focusing on port expansion by means ofland reclamation. The scenmio of the entry of a new competingroute via the Italian port Gioia Tauro is used to address sometrade-offs in Rotterdam investment planning.

  13. Trade-off Analysis of Virtual Inertia and Fast Primary Frequency Control During Frequency Transients in a Converter Dominated Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rezkalla, Michel M.N.; Marinelli, Mattia; Pertl, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally the electricity generation is based on rotating synchronous machines which provide inertia to the power system.The increasing share of converter connected energy sources reduces the available rotational inertia in the power system leading to faster frequency dynamics, which may cause...... more critical frequency excursions. Both, virtual inertia and fast primary control could serve as a solution to improvefrequency stability, however, their respective impacts on the system have different consequences, so that the trade-off is not straightforward. This study presents a comparative...... analysis of virtual inertiaand a fast primary control algorithms with respect to rate of change of frequency (ROCOF), frequency nadir and steady state value considering the effect of the dead time which is carried out by a sensitivity analysis. The investigation shows that the virtual inertia controller...

  14. Food-Energy Interactive Tradeoff Analysis of Sustainable Urban Plant Factory Production Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Chun Huang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to analyze the food–energy interactive nexus of sustainable urban plant factory systems. Plant factory systems grow agricultural products within artificially controlled growing environment and multi-layer vertical growing systems. The system controls the supply of light, temperature, humidity, nutrition, water, and carbon dioxide for growing plants. Plant factories are able to produce consistent and high-quality agricultural products within less production space for urban areas. The production systems use less labor, pesticide, water, and nutrition. However, food production of plant factories has many challenges including higher energy demand, energy costs, and installation costs of artificially controlled technologies. In the research, stochastic optimization model and linear complementarity models are formulated to conduct optimal and equilibrium food–energy analysis of plant factory production. A case study of plant factories in the Taiwanese market is presented.

  15. Learning about social-ecological trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Galafassi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Trade-offs are manifestations of the complex dynamics in interdependent social-ecological systems. Addressing trade-offs involves challenges of perception due to the dynamics of interdependence. We outline the challenges associated with addressing trade-offs and analyze knowledge coproduction as a practice that may contribute to tackling trade-offs in social-ecological systems. We discuss this through a case study in coastal Kenya in which an iterative knowledge coproduction process was facilitated to reveal social-ecological trade-offs in the face of ecological and socioeconomic change. Representatives of communities, government, and NGOs attended two integrative workshops in which methods derived from systems thinking, dialogue, participatory modeling, and scenarios were applied to encourage participants to engage and evaluate trade-offs. Based on process observation and interviews with participants and scientists, our analysis suggests that this process lead to increased appreciation of interdependences and the way in which trade-offs emerge from complex dynamics of interdependent factors. The process seemed to provoke a reflection of knowledge assumptions and narratives, and management goals for the social-ecological system. We also discuss how stakeholders link these insights to their practices.

  16. Adaptive transmission schemes for MISO spectrum sharing systems: Tradeoffs and performance analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Bouida, Zied

    2014-10-01

    In this paper, we propose a number of adaptive transmission techniques in order to improve the performance of the secondary link in a spectrum sharing system. We first introduce the concept of minimum-selection maximum ratio transmission (MS-MRT) as an adaptive variation of the existing MRT (MRT) technique. While in MRT all available antennas are used for transmission, MS-MRT uses the minimum subset of antennas verifying both the interference constraint (IC) to the primary user and the bit error rate (BER) requirements. Similar to MRT, MS-MRT assumes that perfect channel state information (CSI) is available at the secondary transmitter (ST), which makes this scheme challenging from a practical point of view. To overcome this challenge, we propose another transmission technique based on orthogonal space-time block codes with transmit antenna selection (TAS). This technique uses the full-rate full-diversity Alamouti scheme in order to maximize the secondary\\'s transmission rate. The performance of these techniques is analyzed in terms of the average spectral efficiency (ASE), average number of transmit antennas, average delay, average BER, and outage performance. In order to give the motivation behind these analytical results, the tradeoffs offered by the proposed schemes are summarized and then demonstrated through several numerical examples.

  17. Using the Sustainability Monitoring and Assessment Routine (SMART for the Systematic Analysis of Trade-Offs and Synergies between Sustainability Dimensions and Themes at Farm Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Schader

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available When trying to optimize the sustainability performance of farms and farming systems, a consideration of trade-offs and synergies between different themes and dimensions is required. The aim of this paper is to perform a systematic analysis of trade-offs and synergies across all dimensions and themes. To achieve this aim we used the Sustainability Monitoring and Assessment Routine (SMART-Farm Tool which operationalizes the Sustainability Assessment of Food and Agriculture Systems (SAFA Guidelines by defining science-based indicator sets and assessment procedures. It identifies the degree of goal achievement with respect to the 58 themes defined in the SAFA Guidelines using an impact matrix that defines 327 indicators and 1769 relations between sustainability themes and indicators. We illustrate how the SMART-Farm Tool can be successfully applied to assess the sustainability performance of farms of different types and in different geographic regions. Our analysis revealed important synergies between themes within a sustainability dimension and across dimensions. We found major trade-offs within the environmental dimension and between the environmental and economic dimension. The trade-offs within the environmental dimension were even larger than the trade-offs with other dimensions. The study also underlines the importance of the governance dimension with regard to achieving a good level of performance in the other dimensions.

  18. On minimizing assignment errors and the trade-off between false positives and negatives in parentage analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.

    2013-11-04

    Genetic parentage analyses provide a practical means with which to identify parent-offspring relationships in the wild. In Harrison et al.\\'s study (2013a), we compare three methods of parentage analysis and showed that the number and diversity of microsatellite loci were the most important factors defining the accuracy of assignments. Our simulations revealed that an exclusion-Bayes theorem method was more susceptible to false-positive and false-negative assignments than other methods tested. Here, we analyse and discuss the trade-off between type I and type II errors in parentage analyses. We show that controlling for false-positive assignments, without reporting type II errors, can be misleading. Our findings illustrate the need to estimate and report both the rate of false-positive and false-negative assignments in parentage analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. On minimizing assignment errors and the trade-off between false positives and negatives in parentage analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Planes, Serge; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Berumen, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    Genetic parentage analyses provide a practical means with which to identify parent-offspring relationships in the wild. In Harrison et al.'s study (2013a), we compare three methods of parentage analysis and showed that the number and diversity of microsatellite loci were the most important factors defining the accuracy of assignments. Our simulations revealed that an exclusion-Bayes theorem method was more susceptible to false-positive and false-negative assignments than other methods tested. Here, we analyse and discuss the trade-off between type I and type II errors in parentage analyses. We show that controlling for false-positive assignments, without reporting type II errors, can be misleading. Our findings illustrate the need to estimate and report both the rate of false-positive and false-negative assignments in parentage analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. An age-structured approach to modelling behavioural variation maintained by life-history trade-offs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H T Chan

    Full Text Available There have been numerous empirical studies on the fitness consequences of behavioural syndromes in various animal taxa; however, the ecological and evolutionary implications on a population level are still poorly understood. To better understand these implications, we develop a non-linear age-structured mathematical model to qualitatively examine the evolutionary consequences of a heritable boldness personality trait within an animal population. We assume that this heritable boldness trait is positively correlated with boldness towards predators and intraspecific aggressiveness. This assumption leads to a growth/reproductive success versus mortality trade-off, which is thoroughly investigated and documented in the literature. Another life-history trade-off we include in the model is future versus current reproduction, which was shown by Wolf et al. to be a possible mechanism for the evolution of behavioural syndromes within an animal population. The stability of the system is analysed, whereby the characteristic equation is in the form of a homogeneous Fredholm equation of the second kind which depends on both the perturbation and equilibrium solution. The system is found to be stable due to the competition between individuals of similar boldness acting as a negative feedback mechanism. Using numerical simulations we examine the qualitative features of the solution to the system. In particular, we investigate the interplay between the mutation and competition strength between two individuals with different boldness, whereby we find that an increasing competition range acts to push individuals to both extremes of the shy-bold axis, while an increasing mutation range counteracts this effect. This qualitative trait of aggregation of individuals around the shy and bold extremes is also found when examining different birth, mortality and competition functions.

  1. Evaluating multiple dimensions of visitors' tradeoffs between access and crowding at Arches National Park using indifference curve analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven R. Lawson; Robert E. Manning

    2001-01-01

    Tradeoffs are an inherent part of many of the decisions faced by outdoor recreation managers. For example, decisions concerning the social carrying capacity of popular attraction sites involve tradeoffs between limiting visitor use to ensure a high quality experience and allowing high levels of visitor use to ensure that large numbers of visitors retain access to park...

  2. Between Complexity and Parsimony: Can Agent-Based Modelling Resolve the Trade-off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Helle Ørsted; Malawska, Anna Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    to BR- based policy studies would be to couple research on bounded ra-tionality with agent-based modeling. Agent-based models (ABMs) are computational models for simulating the behavior and interactions of any number of decision makers in a dynamic system. Agent-based models are better suited than...... are general equilibrium models for capturing behavior patterns of complex systems. ABMs may have the potential to represent complex systems without oversimplifying them. At the same time, research in bounded rationality and behavioral economics has already yielded many insights that could inform the modeling......While Herbert Simon espoused development of general models of behavior, he also strongly advo-cated that these models be based on realistic assumptions about humans and therefore reflect the complexity of human cognition and social systems (Simon 1997). Hence, the model of bounded rationality...

  3. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  4. Modeling Remote I/O versus Staging Tradeoff in Multi-Data Center Computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suslu, Ibrahim H

    2014-01-01

    In multi-data center computing, data to be processed is not always local to the computation. This is a major challenge especially for data-intensive Cloud computing applications, since large amount of data would need to be either moved the local sites (staging) or accessed remotely over the network (remote I/O). Cloud application developers generally chose between staging and remote I/O intuitively without making any scientific comparison specific to their application data access patterns since there is no generic model available that they can use. In this paper, we propose a generic model for the Cloud application developers which would help them to choose the most appropriate data access mechanism for their specific application workloads. We define the parameters that potentially affect the end-to-end performance of the multi-data center Cloud applications which need to access large datasets over the network. To test and validate our models, we implemented a series of synthetic benchmark applications to simulate the most common data access patterns encountered in Cloud applications. We show that our model provides promising results in different settings with different parameters, such as network bandwidth, server and client capabilities, and data access ratio

  5. The Risk-Return Tradeoff and Leverage Effect in a Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Posedel, Petra

    We study the risk premium and leverage effect in the S&P500 market using the stochastic volatility-in-mean model of Barndor¤-Nielsen & Shephard (2001). The Merton (1973, 1980) equilibrium asset pricing condition linking the conditional mean and conditional variance of discrete time returns is rei...

  6. The costs of parental care: a meta-analysis of the trade-off between parental effort and survival in birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, E S A; Nakagawa, S

    2012-09-01

    A fundamental premise of life-history theory is that organisms that increase current reproductive investment suffer increased mortality. Possibly the most studied life-history phenotypic relationship is the trade-off between parental effort and survival. However, evidence supporting this trade-off is equivocal. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to test the generality of this tenet. Using experimental studies that manipulated parental effort in birds, we show that (i) the effect of parental effort on survival was similar across species regardless of phylogeny; (ii) individuals that experienced reduced parental effort had similar survival probabilities than control individuals, regardless of sex; and (iii) males that experienced increased parental effort were less likely to survive than control males, whereas females that experienced increased effort were just as likely to survive as control females. Our results suggest that the trade-off between parental effort and survival is more complex than previously assumed. Finally, our study provides recommendations of unexplored avenues of future research into life-history trade-offs. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2012 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  7. Patient centered decision making: use of conjoint analysis to determine risk-benefit trade-offs for preference sensitive treatment choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Leslie; Loucks, Aimee; Bui, Christine; Gipson, Greg; Zhong, Lixian; Schwartzburg, Amy; Crabtree, Elizabeth; Goodin, Douglas; Waubant, Emmanuelle; McCulloch, Charles

    2014-09-15

    Understanding patient preferences facilitates shared decision-making and focuses on patient-centered outcomes. Little is known about relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patient preferences for disease modifying therapies (DMTs). We use choice based conjoint (CBC) analysis to calculate patient preferences for risk/benefit trade-offs for hypothetical DMTs. Patients with RRMS were surveyed between 2012 and 2013. Our CBC survey mimicked the decision-making process and trade-offs of patients choosing DMTs, based on all possible DMT attributes. Mixed-effects logistic regression analyzed preferences. We estimated maximum acceptable risk trade-offs for various DMT benefits. Severe side-effect risks had the biggest impact on patient preference with a 1% risk, decreasing patient preference five-fold compared to no risk. (OR=0.22, pbenefit (OR=3.68, pbenefit trade-offs for attributes of all available DMTs. Evaluation of patient preferences is a key step in shared decision making and may significantly impact early drug initiation and compliance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

    2018-05-23

    Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

  9. Parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs for conventional and electric light-duty vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barter, Garrett E.; Reichmuth, David; Westbrook, Jessica; Malczynski, Leonard A.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.; Guzman, Katherine D.; Edwards, Donna M.

    2012-01-01

    A parametric analysis is used to examine the supply demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through 2050. The analysis emphasizes competition between conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including hybrids, and electric vehicles (EVs), represented by both plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. We find that EV market penetration could double relative to our baseline case with policies to extend consumers' effective payback period to 7 years. EVs can also reduce per vehicle petroleum consumption by up to 5% with opportunities to increase that fraction at higher adoption rates. However, EVs have limited ability to reduce LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the current energy source mix. Alone, EVs cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even if the electricity grid shifts towards natural gas powered sources. Since ICEs will dominate the LDV fleet for up to 40 years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions and petroleum consumption over this time. Specifically, achieving fleet average efficiencies of 72 mpg or greater can reduce average GHG emissions by 70% and average petroleum consumption by 81%. - Highlights: ► Parametric analysis of the light duty vehicle fleet, its fuels, and energy sources. ► Conventional vehicles will dominate the fleet for up to 40 years. ► Improving gasoline powertrain efficiency is essential for GHG and oil use reduction. ► Electric vehicles have limited leverage over GHG emissions with the current grid mix. ► Consumer payback period extensions can double electric vehicle market share.

  10. Accounting for measurement error in human life history trade-offs using structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helle, Samuli

    2018-03-01

    Revealing causal effects from correlative data is very challenging and a contemporary problem in human life history research owing to the lack of experimental approach. Problems with causal inference arising from measurement error in independent variables, whether related either to inaccurate measurement technique or validity of measurements, seem not well-known in this field. The aim of this study is to show how structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables can be applied to account for measurement error in independent variables when the researcher has recorded several indicators of a hypothesized latent construct. As a simple example of this approach, measurement error in lifetime allocation of resources to reproduction in Finnish preindustrial women is modelled in the context of the survival cost of reproduction. In humans, lifetime energetic resources allocated in reproduction are almost impossible to quantify with precision and, thus, typically used measures of lifetime reproductive effort (e.g., lifetime reproductive success and parity) are likely to be plagued by measurement error. These results are contrasted with those obtained from a traditional regression approach where the single best proxy of lifetime reproductive effort available in the data is used for inference. As expected, the inability to account for measurement error in women's lifetime reproductive effort resulted in the underestimation of its underlying effect size on post-reproductive survival. This article emphasizes the advantages that the SEM framework can provide in handling measurement error via multiple-indicator latent variables in human life history studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. The trade-off between hospital cost and quality of care. An exploratory empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, R C; Fine, D J; Loree, S W; Retzlaff-Roberts, D L; Tsubakitani, S

    1992-08-01

    The debate concerning quality of care in hospitals, its "value" and affordability, is increasingly of concern to providers, consumers, and purchasers in the United States and elsewhere. We undertook an exploratory study to estimate the impact on hospital-wide costs if quality-of-care levels were varied. To do so, we obtained costs and service output data regarding 300 U.S. hospitals, representing approximately a 5% cross section of all hospitals operating in 1983; both inpatient and outpatient services were included. The quality-of-care measure used for the exploratory analysis was the ratio of actual deaths in the hospital for the year in question to the forecasted number of deaths for the hospital; the hospital mortality forecaster had earlier (and elsewhere) been built from analyses of 6 million discharge abstracts, and took into account each hospital's actual individual admissions, including key patient descriptors for each admission. Such adjusted death rates have increasingly been used as potential indicators of quality, with recent research lending support for the viability of that linkage. The authors then utilized the economic construct of allocative efficiency relying on "best practices" concepts and peer groupings, built using the "envelopment" philosophy of Data Envelopment Analysis and Pareto efficiency. These analytical techniques estimated the efficiently delivered costs required to meet prespecified levels of quality of care. The marginal additional cost per each death deferred in 1983 was estimated to be approximately $29,000 (in 1990 dollars) for the average efficient hospital. Also, over a feasible range, a 1% increase in the level of quality of care delivered was estimated to increase hospital cost by an average of 1.34%. This estimated elasticity of quality on cost also increased with the number of beds in the hospital.

  12. Convergence Rate Analysis of Distributed Gossip (Linear Parameter) Estimation: Fundamental Limits and Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, Soummya; Moura, José M. F.

    2011-08-01

    The paper considers gossip distributed estimation of a (static) distributed random field (a.k.a., large scale unknown parameter vector) observed by sparsely interconnected sensors, each of which only observes a small fraction of the field. We consider linear distributed estimators whose structure combines the information \\emph{flow} among sensors (the \\emph{consensus} term resulting from the local gossiping exchange among sensors when they are able to communicate) and the information \\emph{gathering} measured by the sensors (the \\emph{sensing} or \\emph{innovations} term.) This leads to mixed time scale algorithms--one time scale associated with the consensus and the other with the innovations. The paper establishes a distributed observability condition (global observability plus mean connectedness) under which the distributed estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal. We introduce the distributed notion equivalent to the (centralized) Fisher information rate, which is a bound on the mean square error reduction rate of any distributed estimator; we show that under the appropriate modeling and structural network communication conditions (gossip protocol) the distributed gossip estimator attains this distributed Fisher information rate, asymptotically achieving the performance of the optimal centralized estimator. Finally, we study the behavior of the distributed gossip estimator when the measurements fade (noise variance grows) with time; in particular, we consider the maximum rate at which the noise variance can grow and still the distributed estimator being consistent, by showing that, as long as the centralized estimator is consistent, the distributed estimator remains consistent.

  13. Modeling an emissions peak in China around 2030: Synergies or trade-offs between economy, energy and climate security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi-Min Chai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025–2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually −0.2% in average and cumulatively −3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015–2030.

  14. Production versus environmental impact trade-offs for Swiss cropping systems: a model-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Six, Johan

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing need to improve sustainability of agricultural systems. The key focus remains on optimizing current production systems in order to deliver food security at low environmental costs. It is therefore essential to identify and evaluate agricultural management practices for their potential to maintain or increase productivity and mitigate climate change and N pollution. Previous research on Swiss cropping systems has been concentrated on increasing crop productivity and soil fertility. Thus, relatively little is known about management effects on net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental N losses in the long-term. The aim of this study was to extrapolate findings from Swiss long-term field experiments and to evaluate the system-level sustainability of a wide range of cropping systems under conditions beyond field experimentation by comparing their crop productivity and impacts on soil carbon, net soil GHG emissions, NO3 leaching and soil N balance over 30 years. The DayCent model was previously parameterized for common Swiss crops and crop-specific management practices and evaluated for productivity, soil carbon dynamics and N2O emissions from Swiss cropping systems. Based on a prediction uncertainty criterion for crop productivity and soil carbon (rRMSEGM). The productivity of Swiss cropping systems was mainly driven by total N inputs to the systems. The GWP of systems ranged from -450 to 1309 kg CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1. All studied systems, except for ORG-RT-GM systems, acted as a source of net soil GHG emissions with the relative contribution of soil N2O emissions to GWP of more than 60%. The GWP of systems with CT decreased consistently with increasing use of organic manures (MIN>IN>ORG). NT relative to RT management showed to be more effective in reducing GWP from MIN systems due to reduced soil N2O emissions and positive effects on soil C sequestration. GM relative to CC management was shown to be more effective in mitigating NO3

  15. Coupling/Tradeoff Analysis and Novel Containment Control for Reactive Power, Output Voltage in Islanded Micro-Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Renke; Meng, Lexuan; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    Based on the hierarchical control structure in islanded Micro-Grid (MG) systems, the coupling/tradeoff effects in different control levels are analyzed in details. In the primary level, analyses of the coupling effects among droop control gains, line impedance differences, output reactive power...

  16. Analysis of trade-offs between threats of invasion by nonnative brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and intentional isolation for native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, D.P.; Rieman, B.E.; Dunham, J.B.; Fausch, K.D.; Young, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Native salmonid fishes often face simultaneous threats from habitat fragmentation and invasion by nonnative trout species. Unfortunately, management actions to address one may create or exacerbate the other. A consistent decision process would include a systematic analysis of when and where intentional use or removal of barriers is the most appropriate action. We developed a Bayesian belief network as a tool for such analyses. We focused on native westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and nonnative brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and considered the environmental factors influencing both species, their potential interactions, and the effects of isolation on the persistence of local cutthroat trout populations. The trade-offs between isolation and invasion were strongly influenced by size and habitat quality of the stream network to be isolated and existing demographic linkages within and among populations. An application of the model in several sites in western Montana (USA) showed the process could help clarify management objectives and options and prioritize conservation actions among streams. The approach can also facilitate communication among parties concerned with native salmonids, nonnative fish invasions, barriers and intentional isolation, and management of the associated habitats and populations. ?? 2008 NRC.

  17. Waste Classification based on Waste Form Heat Generation in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles Using the Fuel-Cycle Integration and Tradeoffs (FIT) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denia Djokic; Steven J. Piet; Layne F. Pincock; Nick R. Soelberg

    2013-02-01

    This study explores the impact of wastes generated from potential future fuel cycles and the issues presented by classifying these under current classification criteria, and discusses the possibility of a comprehensive and consistent characteristics-based classification framework based on new waste streams created from advanced fuel cycles. A static mass flow model, Fuel-Cycle Integration and Tradeoffs (FIT), was used to calculate the composition of waste streams resulting from different nuclear fuel cycle choices. This analysis focuses on the impact of waste form heat load on waste classification practices, although classifying by metrics of radiotoxicity, mass, and volume is also possible. The value of separation of heat-generating fission products and actinides in different fuel cycles is discussed. It was shown that the benefits of reducing the short-term fission-product heat load of waste destined for geologic disposal are neglected under the current source-based radioactive waste classification system , and that it is useful to classify waste streams based on how favorable the impact of interim storage is in increasing repository capacity.

  18. Finite element modeling of shell shape in the freshwater turtle Pseudemys concinna reveals a trade-off between mechanical strength and hydrodynamic efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Gabriel; Stayton, C Tristan

    2011-10-01

    Aquatic species can experience different selective pressures on morphology in different flow regimes. Species inhabiting lotic regimes often adapt to these conditions by evolving low-drag (i.e., streamlined) morphologies that reduce the likelihood of dislodgment or displacement. However, hydrodynamic factors are not the only selective pressures influencing organismal morphology and shapes well suited to flow conditions may compromise performance in other roles. We investigated the possibility of morphological trade-offs in the turtle Pseudemys concinna. Individuals living in lotic environments have flatter, more streamlined shells than those living in lentic environments; however, this flatter shape may also make the shells less capable of resisting predator-induced loads. We tested the idea that "lotic" shell shapes are weaker than "lentic" shell shapes, concomitantly examining effects of sex. Geometric morphometric data were used to transform an existing finite element shell model into a series of models corresponding to the shapes of individual turtles. Models were assigned identical material properties and loaded under identical conditions, and the stresses produced by a series of eight loads were extracted to describe the strength of the shells. "Lotic" shell shapes produced significantly higher stresses than "lentic" shell shapes, indicating that the former is weaker than the latter. Females had significantly stronger shell shapes than males, although these differences were less consistent than differences between flow regimes. We conclude that, despite the potential for many-to-one mapping of shell shape onto strength, P. concinna experiences a trade-off in shell shape between hydrodynamic and mechanical performance. This trade-off may be evident in many other turtle species or any other aquatic species that also depend on a shell for defense. However, evolution of body size may provide an avenue of escape from this trade-off in some cases, as changes in

  19. Trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and harvests in a steady state - A multi-criteria analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pingoud, Kim; Ekholm, Tommi; Sievänen, Risto; Huuskonen, Saija; Hynynen, Jari

    2018-03-15

    This paper provides a perspective for comparing trade-offs between harvested wood flows and forest carbon stocks with different forest management regimes. A constant management regime applied to a forest area with an even age-class distribution leads to a steady state, in which the annual harvest and carbon stocks remain constant over time. As both are desirable - carbon stocks for mitigating climate change and harvests for the economic use of wood and displacing fossil fuels - an ideal strategy should be chosen from a set of management regimes that are Pareto-optimal in the sense of multi-criteria decision-making. When choosing between Pareto-optimal alternatives, the trade-off between carbon stock and harvests is unavoidable. This trade-off can be described e.g. in terms of carbon payback times or carbon returns. As numerical examples, we present steady-state harvest levels and carbon stocks in a Finnish boreal forest region for different rotation periods, thinning intensities and collection patterns for harvest residues. In the set of simulated management practices, harvest residue collection presents the most favorable trade-off with payback times around 30-40 years; while Pareto-optimal changes in rotation or thinnings exhibited payback times over 100 years, or alternatively carbon returns below 1%. By extending the rotation period and using less-intensive thinnings compared to current practices, the steady-state carbon stocks could be increased by half while maintaining current harvest levels. Additional cases with longer rotation periods should be also considered, but were here excluded due to the lack of reliable data on older forest stands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Competing values, tensions and trade-offs in management of nuclear power plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiman, Teemu; Rollenhagen, Carl

    2012-01-01

    The specific goal of the study is to look how tensions, competing values and trade-offs manifest in the management of nuclear power plants. Second goal is to inspect how existing frameworks, such as Competing Values Framework, can be used to model the tensions. Empirical data consists of thirty interviews that were conducted as part of a NKS study on safety culture in the Nordic nuclear branch. Eight trade-offs are identified based on a grounded theory based analysis of the interview data. The competing values and potential tensions involved in the trade-offs are discussed.

  1. A population model evaluating the consequences of the evolution of double-resistance and tradeoffs on the benefits of two-drug antibiotic treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Ellsworth M; Chao, Lin

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of antibiotic resistance in microbes poses one of the greatest challenges to the management of human health. Because addressing the problem experimentally has been difficult, research on strategies to slow the evolution of resistance through the rational use of antibiotics has resorted to mathematical and computational models. However, despite many advances, several questions remain unsettled. Here we present a population model for rational antibiotic usage by adding three key features that have been overlooked: 1) the maximization of the frequency of uninfected patients in the human population rather than the minimization of antibiotic resistance in the bacterial population, 2) the use of cocktails containing antibiotic pairs, and 3) the imposition of tradeoff constraints on bacterial resistance to multiple drugs. Because of tradeoffs, bacterial resistance does not evolve directionally and the system reaches an equilibrium state. When considering the equilibrium frequency of uninfected patients, both cycling and mixing improve upon single-drug treatment strategies. Mixing outperforms optimal cycling regimens. Cocktails further improve upon aforementioned strategies. Moreover, conditions that increase the population frequency of uninfected patients also increase the recovery rate of infected individual patients. Thus, a rational strategy does not necessarily result in a tragedy of the commons because benefits to the individual patient and general public are not in conflict. Our identification of cocktails as the best strategy when tradeoffs between multiple-resistance are operating could also be extended to other host-pathogen systems. Cocktails or other multiple-drug treatments are additionally attractive because they allow re-using antibiotics whose utility has been negated by the evolution of single resistance.

  2. Incorporating soil variability in continental soil water modelling: a trade-off between data availability and model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, L.; Crosbie, R. S.; Doble, R.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.

    2012-04-01

    Developing a continental land surface model implies finding a balance between the complexity in representing the system processes and the availability of reliable data to drive, parameterise and calibrate the model. While a high level of process understanding at plot or catchment scales may warrant a complex model, such data is not available at the continental scale. This data sparsity is especially an issue for the Australian Water Resources Assessment system, AWRA-L, a land-surface model designed to estimate the components of the water balance for the Australian continent. This study focuses on the conceptualization and parametrization of the soil drainage process in AWRA-L. Traditionally soil drainage is simulated with Richards' equation, which is highly non-linear. As general analytic solutions are not available, this equation is usually solved numerically. In AWRA-L however, we introduce a simpler function based on simulation experiments that solve Richards' equation. In the simplified function soil drainage rate, the ratio of drainage (D) over storage (S), decreases exponentially with relative water content. This function is controlled by three parameters, the soil water storage at field capacity (SFC), the drainage fraction at field capacity (KFC) and a drainage function exponent (β). [ ] D- -S- S = KF C exp - β (1 - SFC ) To obtain spatially variable estimates of these three parameters, the Atlas of Australian Soils is used, which lists soil hydraulic properties for each soil profile type. For each soil profile type in the Atlas, 10 days of draining an initially fully saturated, freely draining soil is simulated using HYDRUS-1D. With field capacity defined as the volume of water in the soil after 1 day, the remaining parameters can be obtained by fitting the AWRA-L soil drainage function to the HYDRUS-1D results. This model conceptualisation fully exploits the data available in the Atlas of Australian Soils, without the need to solve the non

  3. The Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM: a diverse approach to representing terrestrial biogeography and biogeochemistry based on plant functional trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pavlick

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial biosphere models typically abstract the immense diversity of vegetation forms and functioning into a relatively small set of predefined semi-empirical plant functional types (PFTs. There is growing evidence, however, from the field ecology community as well as from modelling studies that current PFT schemes may not adequately represent the observed variations in plant functional traits and their effect on ecosystem functioning. In this paper, we introduce the Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (JeDi-DGVM as a new approach to terrestrial biosphere modelling with a richer representation of functional diversity than traditional modelling approaches based on a small number of fixed PFTs. JeDi-DGVM simulates the performance of a large number of randomly generated plant growth strategies, each defined by a set of 15 trait parameters which characterize various aspects of plant functioning including carbon allocation, ecophysiology and phenology. Each trait parameter is involved in one or more functional trade-offs. These trade-offs ultimately determine whether a strategy is able to survive under the climatic conditions in a given model grid cell and its performance relative to the other strategies. The biogeochemical fluxes and land surface properties of the individual strategies are aggregated to the grid-cell scale using a mass-based weighting scheme. We evaluate the simulated global biogeochemical patterns against a variety of field and satellite-based observations following a protocol established by the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project. The land surface fluxes and vegetation structural properties are reasonably well simulated by JeDi-DGVM, and compare favourably with other state-of-the-art global vegetation models. We also evaluate the simulated patterns of functional diversity and the sensitivity of the JeDi-DGVM modelling approach to the number of sampled strategies. Altogether, the results demonstrate the

  4. Is there an ideal REDD+ program? An analysis of policy trade-offs at the local level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, George A; Matthews, Robin; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    We use economy-wide simulation methods to analyze the outcome of a simple REDD+ program in a mixed subsistence/commercial-agriculture economy. Alternative scenarios help trace REDD+'s causal chain, revealing how trade-offs between the program's public and private costs and benefits determine its effectiveness, efficiency and equity (the 3Es). Scenarios reveal a complex relationship between the 3Es not evident in more aggregate analyses. Setting aside land as a carbon sink always influences the productivity of agriculture and its supply of non-market goods and services; but the overall returns to land and labor-which ultimately determine the opportunity cost of enrollment, the price of carbon and the distribution of gains and losses-depend on local conditions. In the study area, market-oriented landowners could enroll 30% of local land into a cost-effective program, but local subsistence demands would raise their opportunity costs as REDD+ unfurls, increasing the marginal cost of carbon. A combination of rent and wage changes would create net costs for most private stakeholders, including program participants. Increasing carbon prices undermines the program's efficiency without solving its inequities; expanding the program reduces inefficiencies but increases private costs with only minor improvements in equity. A program that prevents job losses could be the best option, but its efficiency compared to direct compensation could depend on program scale. Overall, neither the cost nor the 3Es of alternative REDD+ programs can be assessed without accounting for local demand for subsistence goods and services. In the context of Mexico's tropical highlands, a moderate-sized REDD+ program could at best have no net impact on rural households. REDD+ mechanisms should avoid general formulas by giving local authorities the necessary flexibility to address the trade-offs involved. National programs themselves should remain flexible enough to adjust for spatially and temporally

  5. Is there an ideal REDD+ program? An analysis of policy trade-offs at the local level.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A Dyer

    Full Text Available We use economy-wide simulation methods to analyze the outcome of a simple REDD+ program in a mixed subsistence/commercial-agriculture economy. Alternative scenarios help trace REDD+'s causal chain, revealing how trade-offs between the program's public and private costs and benefits determine its effectiveness, efficiency and equity (the 3Es. Scenarios reveal a complex relationship between the 3Es not evident in more aggregate analyses. Setting aside land as a carbon sink always influences the productivity of agriculture and its supply of non-market goods and services; but the overall returns to land and labor-which ultimately determine the opportunity cost of enrollment, the price of carbon and the distribution of gains and losses-depend on local conditions. In the study area, market-oriented landowners could enroll 30% of local land into a cost-effective program, but local subsistence demands would raise their opportunity costs as REDD+ unfurls, increasing the marginal cost of carbon. A combination of rent and wage changes would create net costs for most private stakeholders, including program participants. Increasing carbon prices undermines the program's efficiency without solving its inequities; expanding the program reduces inefficiencies but increases private costs with only minor improvements in equity. A program that prevents job losses could be the best option, but its efficiency compared to direct compensation could depend on program scale. Overall, neither the cost nor the 3Es of alternative REDD+ programs can be assessed without accounting for local demand for subsistence goods and services. In the context of Mexico's tropical highlands, a moderate-sized REDD+ program could at best have no net impact on rural households. REDD+ mechanisms should avoid general formulas by giving local authorities the necessary flexibility to address the trade-offs involved. National programs themselves should remain flexible enough to adjust for

  6. Development of a model for the prediction of the fuel consumption and nitrogen oxides emission trade-off for large ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Ulrik; Pierobon, Leonardo; Baldi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    The international regulations on fuel efficiency and NOx emissions of commercial ships motivate the investigation of new system layouts, which can comply with the regulations. In combustion engines, measures to reduce the fuel consumption often lead to increased NOx emissions and careful consider...... that increased system complexity can lead to lower fuel consumption and NOx. Fuel consumption reductions of up to 9% with a 6.5% NOx reduction were achieved using a hybrid turbocharger and organic Rankine cycle waste heat recovery system.......The international regulations on fuel efficiency and NOx emissions of commercial ships motivate the investigation of new system layouts, which can comply with the regulations. In combustion engines, measures to reduce the fuel consumption often lead to increased NOx emissions and careful...... consideration of this trade-off mechanism is required in the design of marine propulsion systems. This study investigates five different configurations of two-stroke diesel-based machinery systems for large ships and their influence on the mentioned trade-off. Numerical models of a low-speed two-stroke diesel...

  7. Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riegels, Niels

    is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

  8. System Trade-Off Study and Opto-Thermo Analysis of a Sunshield on the MSC of the KOMPSAT-2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Soo Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The Multi-Spectral Camera (MSC is the payload of KOMPSAT-2 which is designed for earth imaging in optical and near-infrared region on a sun-synchronous orbit. The telescope in the MSC is a Ritchey-Chretien type with large aperture. The telescope structure should be well stabilized and the optical alignment should be kept steady so that best images can be achieved. However, the MSC is exposed to adverse thermal environment on the orbit which can give impacts on optical performance. Solar incidence can bring non-uniform temperature rise on the telescope tube which entails unfavorable thermal distortion. Three ways of preventing the solar radiation were proposed, which were installing external mechanical shield, internal shield, and maneuvering the spacecraft. After trade-off study, internal sun shield was selected as a practical and optimal solution to minimize the effect of the solar radiation. In addition, detailed designs of the structure and sunshield were produced and analyses have been performed. The results were assessed to verify their impacts to the image quality. It was confirmed that the internal sunshield complies with the requirements and would improve image quality.

  9. The need for a characteristics-based approach to radioactive waste classification as informed by advanced nuclear fuel cycles using the fuel-cycle integration and tradeoffs (FIT) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djokic, D.; Piet, S.; Pincock, L.; Soelberg, N.

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the impact of wastes generated from potential future fuel cycles and the issues presented by classifying these under current classification criteria, and discusses the possibility of a comprehensive and consistent characteristics-based classification framework based on new waste streams created from advanced fuel cycles. A static mass flow model, Fuel-Cycle Integration and Tradeoffs (FIT), was used to calculate the composition of waste streams resulting from different nuclear fuel cycle choices. Because heat generation is generally the most important factor limiting geological repository areal loading, this analysis focuses on the impact of waste form heat load on waste classification practices, although classifying by metrics of radiotoxicity, mass, and volume is also possible. Waste streams generated in different fuel cycles and their possible classification based on the current U.S. framework and international standards are discussed. It is shown that the effects of separating waste streams are neglected under a source-based radioactive waste classification system. (authors)

  10. WE-AB-209-02: A New Inverse Planning Framework with Principle-Based Modeling of Inter-Structural Dosimetric Tradeoffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, H; Dong, P; Xing, L

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Traditional radiotherapy inverse planning relies on the weighting factors to phenomenologically balance the conflicting criteria for different structures. The resulting manual trial-and-error determination of the weights has long been recognized as the most time-consuming part of treatment planning. The purpose of this work is to develop an inverse planning framework that parameterizes the inter-structural dosimetric tradeoff among with physically more meaningful quantities to simplify the search for a clinically sensible plan. Methods: A permissible dosimetric uncertainty is introduced for each of the structures to balance their conflicting dosimetric requirements. The inverse planning is then formulated as a convex feasibility problem, which aims to generate plans with acceptable dosimetric uncertainties. A sequential procedure (SP) is derived to decompose the model into three submodels to constrain the uncertainty in the planning target volume (PTV), the critical structures, and all other structures to spare, sequentially. The proposed technique is applied to plan a liver case and a head-and-neck case and compared with a conventional approach. Results: Our results show that the strategy is able to generate clinically sensible plans with little trial-and-error. In the case of liver IMRT, the fractional volumes to liver and heart above 20Gy are found to be 22% and 10%, respectively, which are 15.1% and 33.3% lower than that of the counterpart conventional plan while maintaining the same PTV coverage. The planning of the head and neck IMRT show the same level of success, with the DVHs for all organs at risk and PTV very competitive to a counterpart plan. Conclusion: A new inverse planning framework has been established. With physically more meaningful modeling of the inter-structural tradeoff, the technique enables us to substantially reduce the need for trial-and-error adjustment of the model parameters and opens new opportunities of incorporating prior

  11. WE-AB-209-02: A New Inverse Planning Framework with Principle-Based Modeling of Inter-Structural Dosimetric Tradeoffs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H; Dong, P; Xing, L [Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Traditional radiotherapy inverse planning relies on the weighting factors to phenomenologically balance the conflicting criteria for different structures. The resulting manual trial-and-error determination of the weights has long been recognized as the most time-consuming part of treatment planning. The purpose of this work is to develop an inverse planning framework that parameterizes the inter-structural dosimetric tradeoff among with physically more meaningful quantities to simplify the search for a clinically sensible plan. Methods: A permissible dosimetric uncertainty is introduced for each of the structures to balance their conflicting dosimetric requirements. The inverse planning is then formulated as a convex feasibility problem, which aims to generate plans with acceptable dosimetric uncertainties. A sequential procedure (SP) is derived to decompose the model into three submodels to constrain the uncertainty in the planning target volume (PTV), the critical structures, and all other structures to spare, sequentially. The proposed technique is applied to plan a liver case and a head-and-neck case and compared with a conventional approach. Results: Our results show that the strategy is able to generate clinically sensible plans with little trial-and-error. In the case of liver IMRT, the fractional volumes to liver and heart above 20Gy are found to be 22% and 10%, respectively, which are 15.1% and 33.3% lower than that of the counterpart conventional plan while maintaining the same PTV coverage. The planning of the head and neck IMRT show the same level of success, with the DVHs for all organs at risk and PTV very competitive to a counterpart plan. Conclusion: A new inverse planning framework has been established. With physically more meaningful modeling of the inter-structural tradeoff, the technique enables us to substantially reduce the need for trial-and-error adjustment of the model parameters and opens new opportunities of incorporating prior

  12. The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Askin, Amanda C.; Barter, Garrett E.; West, Todd H.; Manley, Dawn K.

    2015-01-01

    We present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. The model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives. -- Highlights: •We present a parametric analysis of factors U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. •Conventional diesels will be more than 70% of U.S. heavy-duty vehicles through 2050. •CNG trucks are well suited to large, urban fleets with private refueling. •Ultra-efficient long haul diesel trucks are preferred over LNG at current fuel prices

  13. A probabilistic production costing analysis of SO2 emissions reduction strategies for Ohio: emissions, costs and employment tradeoffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heslin, J.S.; Hobbs, B.F.

    1991-01-01

    A new approach for state- and utility-level analysis of the cost and regional economic impacts of strategies for reducing utility SO 2 emissions is summarized and applied to Ohio. The methodology is based upon probabilistic production costing and economic input-output analysis. It is an improvement over previous approaches because it: (1) accurately models random outages of generating units, 'must-run' constraints on unit output, and the distribution of power demands; and (2) runs quickly on a microcomputer and yet considers the entire range of potential control strategies from a systems perspective. The input-output analysis considers not only the economic effects of utility fuel use and capital investment, but also those of increased electric rates. Two distinct strategies are found to be most attractive for Ohio. The first, more flexible one, consists of emissions dispatching (ED) alone to meet short run emissions reduction targets. A 75 percent reduction can then be achieved by the turn of the century by combining ED and fuel switching (FS) with flue gas desulfurization, limestone injection multistage burners, and physical coal cleaning at selected plants. The second is a scrubber-based strategy which includes ED. By the year 2000, energy conservation becomes a cost effective component of these strategies. In order to minimize compliance costs, acid rain legislation which facilitates emission trading and places regional tonnage limits on emissions is desirable

  14. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Trade-off between positive and negative design of protein stability: from lattice models to real proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orly Noivirt-Brik

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Two different strategies for stabilizing proteins are (i positive design in which the native state is stabilized and (ii negative design in which competing non-native conformations are destabilized. Here, the circumstances under which one strategy might be favored over the other are explored in the case of lattice models of proteins and then generalized and discussed with regard to real proteins. The balance between positive and negative design of proteins is found to be determined by their average "contact-frequency", a property that corresponds to the fraction of states in the conformational ensemble of the sequence in which a pair of residues is in contact. Lattice model proteins with a high average contact-frequency are found to use negative design more than model proteins with a low average contact-frequency. A mathematical derivation of this result indicates that it is general and likely to hold also for real proteins. Comparison of the results of correlated mutation analysis for real proteins with typical contact-frequencies to those of proteins likely to have high contact-frequencies (such as disordered proteins and proteins that are dependent on chaperonins for their folding indicates that the latter tend to have stronger interactions between residues that are not in contact in their native conformation. Hence, our work indicates that negative design is employed when insufficient stabilization is achieved via positive design owing to high contact-frequencies.

  16. Development of an integrated model for energy systems planning and carbon dioxide mitigation under uncertainty - Tradeoffs between two-level decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, S W; Li, Y P; Xu, L P

    2018-07-01

    A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO 2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Life History Trade-offs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; Kliman, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs play a central role in life history theory. This article explains why they exist, how they arise, how they can be measured, and briefly discusses their evolution. Three important trade-offs are discussed in detail: the trade-off between current reproduction and survival, between current

  18. Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation And Agriculture, Trade-off Or Win-win Situation: Bioeconomic Farm Modelling In The Sudanian Area of Burkina Faso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Some, T. E.; Barbier, B.

    2015-12-01

    Climate changes talks regularly underline that developing countries' agriculture could play a stronger role in GHGs mitigation strategies and benefit from the Kyoto Protocol program of subsidies. Scientists explain that agriculture can contribute to carbon mitigation by storing more carbon in the soil through greener cropping systems. In this context, a growing number of research projects have started to investigate how developing countries agriculture can contribute to these objectives. The clean development mechanism (CDM) proposed in the Kyoto protocol is one particular policy instrument that can incite farmers to mitigate the GHG balance towards more sequestration and less emission. Some economists such as Michael Porter think that environmental regulation lead to a win-win outcome, in which case subsidies are not necessary. If it is a trade-off between incomes and the environment, subsidies are required. CDM can be mobilized to support the mitigation strategy. Agriculture implies the use of inputs. Reducing the emission implies the reduction of those inputs which will in turn imply a yield decrease. The study aims to assess whether this measure will imply a trade-off between environmental and economic objectives or a win-win situation. I apply this study to the case of small farmers in Burkina Faso through environmental instruments such as the emissions limits and agroforestry using a bioeconomic model, in which the farmers maximize their utility subject to constraints. The study finds that the limitation of emissions in annual crops production involves a trade-off. by impacting negatively their net cash come. By integrating perennial crops in the farming system, the farmers' utility increases. Around 6,118 kg are sequestrated individually. By computing the value on this carbon balance, farmers' net cash incomes go better. Then practicing agroforestry is a win-win situation, as they reach a higher level of income, and reduce emissions. Policymakers must

  19. The prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes of medication trade-offs in kidney and liver transplant recipients: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serper, Marina; Reese, Peter P; Patzer, Rachel R; Levitsky, Josh; Wolf, Michael S

    2017-11-25

    High out-of-pocket medication costs negatively impact adherence in transplantation. We evaluated the association of "medication trade-offs"-defined as choosing to spend money on other expenses over medications-with medication nonadherence and transplant outcomes. From 2011 to 2012, we performed a prospective study of 201 transplanted recipients (n = 103 liver, n = 98 kidney and) at two large US transplant centers. Structured interviews assessed socio-demographics, medication adherence, and medication trade-offs. Multivariable models assessing risk factors for medications trade-offs and the association between medications trade-offs and post-transplant hospital admissions were performed. A total of 17% of patients reported medication trade-offs; the most common trade-offs were inability to afford a prescription in the past 12 months and making choices between prescriptions and food. In multivariable analysis, insurance type (RR: 2.97, 95% CI: 1.19-7.40), limited health literacy (RR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.23-5.64), and ≥3 comorbid conditions (RR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.09-5.62; all P trade-offs. Patients with trade-offs were more likely to report nonadherence to medications (mean adherence: 77 ± 23% with trade-offs vs. 89 ± 19% without trade-offs, P trade-offs was associated with post-transplant hospital admissions (RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.14-2.35, P < 0.01). Assessments of financial barriers are warranted in clinical practice to identify nonadherence and improve post-transplant outcomes. © 2017 Steunstichting ESOT.

  20. On the tradeoffs of programming language choice for numerical modelling in geoscience. A case study comparing modern Fortran, C++/Blitz++ and Python/NumPy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarecka, D.; Arabas, S.; Fijalkowski, M.; Gaynor, A.

    2012-04-01

    The language of choice for numerical modelling in geoscience has long been Fortran. A choice of a particular language and coding paradigm comes with different set of tradeoffs such as that between performance, ease of use (and ease of abuse), code clarity, maintainability and reusability, availability of open source compilers, debugging tools, adequate external libraries and parallelisation mechanisms. The availability of trained personnel and the scale and activeness of the developer community is of importance as well. We present a short comparison study aimed at identification and quantification of these tradeoffs for a particular example of an object oriented implementation of a parallel 2D-advection-equation solver in Python/NumPy, C++/Blitz++ and modern Fortran. The main angles of comparison will be complexity of implementation, performance of various compilers or interpreters and characterisation of the "added value" gained by a particular choice of the language. The choice of the numerical problem is dictated by the aim to make the comparison useful and meaningful to geoscientists. Python is chosen as a language that traditionally is associated with ease of use, elegant syntax but limited performance. C++ is chosen for its traditional association with high performance but even higher complexity and syntax obscurity. Fortran is included in the comparison for its widespread use in geoscience often attributed to its performance. We confront the validity of these traditional views. We point out how the usability of a particular language in geoscience depends on the characteristics of the language itself and the availability of pre-existing software libraries (e.g. NumPy, SciPy, PyNGL, PyNIO, MPI4Py for Python and Blitz++, Boost.Units, Boost.MPI for C++). Having in mind the limited complexity of the considered numerical problem, we present a tentative comparison of performance of the three implementations with different open source compilers including CPython and

  1. Multi-Objective Optimization for Analysis of Changing Trade-Offs in the Nepalese Water–Energy–Food Nexus with Hydropower Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanita Dhaubanjar

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available While the water–energy–food nexus approach is becoming increasingly important for more efficient resource utilization and economic development, limited quantitative tools are available to incorporate the approach in decision-making. We propose a spatially explicit framework that couples two well-established water and power system models to develop a decision support tool combining multiple nexus objectives in a linear objective function. To demonstrate our framework, we compare eight Nepalese power development scenarios based on five nexus objectives: minimization of power deficit, maintenance of water availability for irrigation to support food self-sufficiency, reduction in flood risk, maintenance of environmental flows, and maximization of power export. The deterministic multi-objective optimization model is spatially resolved to enable realistic representation of the nexus linkages and accounts for power transmission constraints using an optimal power flow approach. Basin inflows, hydropower plant specifications, reservoir characteristics, reservoir rules, irrigation water demand, environmental flow requirements, power demand, and transmission line properties are provided as model inputs. The trade-offs and synergies among these objectives were visualized for each scenario under multiple environmental flow and power demand requirements. Spatially disaggregated model outputs allowed for the comparison of scenarios not only based on fulfillment of nexus objectives but also scenario compatibility with existing infrastructure, supporting the identification of projects that enhance overall system efficiency. Though the model is applied to the Nepalese nexus from a power development perspective here, it can be extended and adapted for other problems.

  2. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  3. An overview of tradeoff curve analysis in the design of manufacturing systems Uma visão geral da análise de curvas de tradeoff no projeto de sistemas de manufatura

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel R. Bitran

    1996-08-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in manufacturing systems has long been the source of managerial complexity. In this paper we discuss the impact of different sources of uncertainty and present a methodology to assess their impact on system behavior. We introduce the concept of tradeoff curves as a characteristic of a manufacturing system and illustrate their use to make decisions concerning the amount and type of capacity necessary to manage the system efficiently, to assess the impact of products arrival and processing uncertainties, as well as the consequences of changes in throughput and product mix. The methodology is illustrated with an example derived from an actual application in the semiconductor industry.Incerteza nos sistemas de manufatura tem sido há muito tempo fonte de complexidade gerencial. Neste artigo discutimos o impacto de diferentes fontes de incerteza e apresentamos um metodologia para avaliar tal impacto no comportamento do sistema. Introduzimos o conceito de curvas de tradeoff como uma característica de um sistema de manufatura e ilustramos sua utilização para tomar decisões com respeito à quantidade e tipo de capacidade necessária para gerir o sistema eficientemente, para avaliar o impacto de incerteza na chegada e processamento de produtos, assim como as conseqüências de mudanças na taxa média de produção e no mix de produtos. A metodologia é ilustrada com um exemplo derivado de uma aplicação real numa indústria de semicondutores.

  4. The integration of familiarity and recollection information in short-term recognition: modeling speed-accuracy trade-off functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göthe, Katrin; Oberauer, Klaus

    2008-05-01

    Dual process models postulate familiarity and recollection as the basis of the recognition process. We investigated the time-course of integration of the two information sources to one recognition judgment in a working memory task. We tested 24 subjects with a response signal variant of the modified Sternberg recognition task (Oberauer, 2001) to isolate the time course of three different probe types indicating different combinations of familiarity and source information. We compared two mathematical models implementing different ways of integrating familiarity and recollection. Within each model, we tested three assumptions about the nature of the familiarity signal, with familiarity having (a) only positive values, indicating similarity of the probe with the memory list, (b) only negative values, indicating novelty, or (c) both positive and negative values. Both models provided good fits to the data. A model combining the outputs of both processes additively (Integration Model) gave an overall better fit to the data than a model based on a continuous familiarity signal and a probabilistic all-or-none recollection process (Dominance Model).

  5. Relating transport modeling to nanofiltration membrane fabrication: Navigating the permeability-selectivity trade-off in desalination pretreatment

    OpenAIRE

    Labban, Omar; Lienhard, John H

    2018-01-01

    Faced with a pressing need for membranes with a higher permeability and selectivity, the field of membrane technology can benefit from a systematic framework for designing membranes with the necessary physical characteristics. In this work, we present an approach through which transport modeling is employed in fabricating specialized nanofiltration membranes, that experimentally demonstrate enhanced selectivity. Specifically, the Donnan-Steric Pore Model with dielectric exclusion (DSPM-DE) is...

  6. Time and Outcome Framing in Intertemporal Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Marc; Read, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    A robust anomaly in intertemporal choice is the delay-speedup asymmetry: Receipts are discounted more, and payments are discounted less, when delayed than when expedited over the same interval. We developed 2 versions of the tradeoff model (Scholten & Read, 2010) to address such situations, in which an outcome is expected at a given time but…

  7. Program and Portfolio Tradeoffs Under Uncertainty Using Epoch-Era Analysis: A Case Application to Carrier Strike Group Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) • Joint EEA and MPT Method... Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) for Engineering Portfolios Consistencies • Value elicitation from stakeholders • Modeling of asset value • Founded...correlation • Asset availability is dynamic • Costs may accompany diversification Select elements of Modern Portfolio Theory can improve the design

  8. Trade-offs between pasture production and farmland bird conservation: exploration of options using a dynamic farm model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatier, R; Teillard, F; Rossing, W A H; Doyen, L; Tichit, M

    2015-05-01

    In European grassland landscapes, grazing and mowing play a key role for the maintenance of high-quality habitats that host important bird populations. As grasslands are also key resources for cattle feeding, there is a need to develop management strategies that achieve the double objective of production and biodiversity conservation. The objective of this study was to use a modelling approach to generate recognisable patterns of bird dynamics in farms composed of different land use proportions, and to compare their production and ecological dimensions. We developed a dynamic model, which linked grassland management to bird population dynamics at the field and farm levels. The model was parameterised for two types of suckling farms corresponding to contrasting levels of grassland intensification and for two bird species of high conservation value. A viability algorithm was used to define and assess viable management strategies for production and ecological performance so as to draw the shape of the relationship between both types of performances for the two types of farms. Our results indicated that, at the farm level, there was a farming system effect with a negative and non-linear relationship linking performance. Improving bird population maintenance was less costly in extensive farms compared with intensive farms. At the field level, the model predicted the timing and intensity of land use, maximising either production or ecological performance. The results suggested that multi-objective grassland management would benefit from public policies that consider levels of organisation higher than the field level, such as the farm or the landscape.

  9. Acclimation, adaptation, traits and trade-offs in plankton functional type models – seeking clarity in terminology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flynn, Kevin J.; St. John, Michael; Raven, John A.

    2015-01-01

    We propose definitions in terminology to enhance ongoing collaborations between biologists and modellers on plankton ecology. Organism “functional type” should refer to commonality in ecology not biogeochemistry; the latter is largely an emergent property of the former, while alignment with ecology...

  10. The cricket and the ant : Organizational trade-offs in changing environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peli, Gabor; Bruggeman, Jeroen

    2007-01-01

    Organizations face trade-offs when they adopt strategies in changing resource environments. The type of trade-off depends on the type of resource change. This paper offers an organizational trade-off model for quantitative resource changes. We call it the "Cricket and Ant" (CA) model, because the

  11. Security-Reliability Trade-Off Analysis for Multiuser SIMO Mixed RF/FSO Relay Networks With Opportunistic User Scheduling

    KAUST Repository

    El-Malek, Ahmed H. Abd

    2016-05-24

    In this paper, we study the performance of multiuser single-input multiple-output mixed radio frequency (RF)/free space optical (FSO) relay network with opportunistic user scheduling. The considered system includes multiple users, one amplify-and-forward relay, one destination, and a multiple-antenna eavesdropper. The users are connected with the relay node through RF links and the relay is connected with the destination through an FSO link. Both maximum ratio combining and selection combining schemes are used at the multiple-antenna relay to combine the signal received from the best user on different antennas. The RF/FSO channels models are assumed to follow Nakagami-m/gamma-gamma fading models with pointing errors. Closed-form expressions are derived for the outage probability, average symbol error probability, and ergodic channel capacity. Then, the power of the selected best user is determined to minimize the system asymptotic outage probability under the dominant RF or FSO link. Then, the considered system secrecy performance is investigated, where the closed-form expressions for the intercept probability are derived. Finally, we propose a new cooperative jamming model in which the worst user is selected by the authorized system to jam the existing eavesdropper. Monte-Carlo simulations are provided to validate the achieved exact and asymptotic results.

  12. Valuing improvements in comfort from domestic energy-efficiency retrofits using a trade-off simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clinch, J. Peter; Healy, John D.

    2003-01-01

    There are a number of stimuli behind energy efficiency, not least the Kyoto Protocol. The domestic sector has been highlighted as a key potential area. Improving energy efficiency in this sector also assists alleviating fuel poverty, for research is now demonstrating the strong relationship between poor domestic thermal efficiency, high fuel poverty and poor health and comfort status. Previous research has modelled the energy consumption and technical potential for energy saving resulting from energy-efficiency upgrades in this sector. However, there is virtually no work evaluating the economic benefit of improving households' thermal comfort post-retrofit. This paper does this for Ireland using a computer-simulation program. A dynamic modelling process is employed which projects into the future predicting the extent to which energy savings are forgone for improvements in comfort

  13. Trade-offs mathematical modelling of 3DCE in new product development: real three dimensions and directions for development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilhami, M. A.; Subagyo; Masruroh, N. A.

    2018-04-01

    In the last two decades, coordinating product, process, and supply chain has become the main focus in recent years as a growing body of research, which mathematical modelling is leading technique used in the early phase design. In this paper, we aim to conduct a comprehensive literature review of published paper and propose directions for future research, especially in mathematical modelling. Our findings exhibit fact that evidently there are only a few papers coordinate “real three dimensions”. The other papers, in fact, show simply two dimensions. Finally, some suggestions are proposed such as paying more attention to “real three dimensions” research-based and more focus on minimizing time to market, product life cycle consideration, and product rollover.

  14. Modelling regulating ecosystem services trade-offs across landscape scenarios in Trebonsko Wetlands Biosphere Reserve, Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Harmáčková, Veronika Zuzana; Vačkář, David

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 295, SI (2015), s. 207-215 ISSN 0304-3800 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA TA ČR TD010026 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate regulation * water quality regulation * InVEST models * decision support * social-ecological systems Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 2.275, year: 2015

  15. Can modeling of health outcomes facilitate regulatory decision making? The benefit-risk tradeoff for rosiglitazone in 1999 vs. 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, J T; Veenstra, D L; Gardner, J S; Garrison, L P

    2011-03-01

    Rosiglitazone was initially approved for type 2 diabetes monotherapy. We tested health-outcomes modeling as an aid to regulatory decision making by quantifying the incremental net benefit (INB) value of rosiglitazone (relative to a comparator), both at the time of first approval (1999) and at the FDA advisory committee review (2007). Using 1999 data, rosiglitazone was projected to provide an additional 0.639 years of life (0.373 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) relative to placebo but a loss of 0.312 years (0.173 QALYs) relative to glyburide, with uncertainty in reduction of hemoglobin A(1c) (HbA(1c)) level having the greatest impact on the benefit-risk profile. By 2007, rosiglitazone was projected to provide an additional 0.222 years (0.091 QALYs) vs. glyburide and 0.026 years vs. metformin (0.009 QALYs). Modeling suggested that the use of rosiglitazone as monotherapy was not initially warranted, given the uncertainty with regard to benefit. Despite similar net benefit (NB) as metformin shown in postmarketing data, residual cardiovascular (CV) concerns did not support the use of rosiglitazone as first-line therapy. We adapted a mathematical diabetes model to estimate NB and uncertainty of diabetes monotherapy.

  16. Time-Space Trade-Offs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pagter, Jakob Illeborg

    . The area of time-space trade-offs deals with both upper and lower bounds and both are interesting, theoretically as well as practically. The viewpoint of this dissertation is theoretical, but we believe that some of our results can find applications in practice as well. The last four years has witnessed...... perspective hierarchical memory layout models are the most interesting. Such models are called external memory models, in contrast to the internal memory models discussed above. Despite the fact that space might be of great relevance when solving practical problems on real computers, no theoretical model...... capturing space (and time simultaneously) has been defined. We introduce such a model and use it to prove so-called IOspace trade-offs for Sorting. Building on the abovementioned techniques for time-space efficient internal memory Sorting, we develop the first IO-space efficient external memory Sorting...

  17. The ATLAS Analysis Model

    CERN Multimedia

    Amir Farbin

    The ATLAS Analysis Model is a continually developing vision of how to reconcile physics analysis requirements with the ATLAS offline software and computing model constraints. In the past year this vision has influenced the evolution of the ATLAS Event Data Model, the Athena software framework, and physics analysis tools. These developments, along with the October Analysis Model Workshop and the planning for CSC analyses have led to a rapid refinement of the ATLAS Analysis Model in the past few months. This article introduces some of the relevant issues and presents the current vision of the future ATLAS Analysis Model. Event Data Model The ATLAS Event Data Model (EDM) consists of several levels of details, each targeted for a specific set of tasks. For example the Event Summary Data (ESD) stores calorimeter cells and tracking system hits thereby permitting many calibration and alignment tasks, but will be only accessible at particular computing sites with potentially large latency. In contrast, the Analysis...

  18. The Growth Trade-off between Direct and Indirect Taxes in South Africa: Evidence from a STR Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phiri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The tax system forms the backbone to the functioning of the South African fiscal authorities and it is has been recently questioned whether alterations in the existing tax mix could promote economic growth. Using quarterly data from 1990:Q1 and 2015:Q2, this study investigated the effects of direct and indirect taxes on economic growth for South Africa using the recently developed smooth transition regression (STR model. Our findings suggest an optimal tax of 10.27 percent on the indirect tax-growth ratio, of which below this rate indirect taxes are positively related with economic growth whereas direct taxes are negatively related with growth. Above the optimal tax rate, taxation bears no significant relationship with economic growth. We therefore suggest that policymakers place a greater burden on indirect taxes and yet ensure that the contribution of indirect taxes to economic growth does not exceed the threshold of 10.27 percent.

  19. Exploring Tradeoffs in Demand-Side and Supply-Side Management of Urban Water Resources Using Agent-Based Modeling and Evolutionary Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lufthansa Kanta

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban water supply systems may be managed through supply-side and demand-side strategies, which focus on water source expansion and demand reductions, respectively. Supply-side strategies bear infrastructure and energy costs, while demand-side strategies bear costs of implementation and inconvenience to consumers. To evaluate the performance of demand-side strategies, the participation and water use adaptations of consumers should be simulated. In this study, a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS framework is developed to simulate consumer agents that change their consumption to affect the withdrawal from the water supply system, which, in turn influences operational policies and long-term resource planning. Agent-based models are encoded to represent consumers and a policy maker agent and are coupled with water resources system simulation models. The CAS framework is coupled with an evolutionary computation-based multi-objective methodology to explore tradeoffs in cost, inconvenience to consumers, and environmental impacts for both supply-side and demand-side strategies. Decisions are identified to specify storage levels in a reservoir that trigger: (1 increases in the volume of water pumped through inter-basin transfers from an external reservoir; and (2 drought stages, which restrict the volume of water that is allowed for residential outdoor uses. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for Arlington, Texas, water supply system to identify non-dominated strategies for an historic drought decade. Results demonstrate that pumping costs associated with maximizing environmental reliability exceed pumping costs associated with minimizing restrictions on consumer water use.

  20. 100 Areas soil washing tradeoff study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belden, R.D.

    1995-11-01

    The complex nature of cost analysis and systems work demands a level of effort to ensure that decisions made support the best interests of all parties. This tradeoff study will act as a formal decision analysis method for the evaluation of many variables. The documentation of the decision rationale and system design is essential for successful planning and implementation of any system. The Hanford Site offers unique problems for economic analysis of remediation alternatives. The variations in the size of sites, geographic locations, and possible cleanup scenarios all add to the complexity of the tradeoff analysis. A thorough examination of all alternatives must be held to a level of detail appropriate to current regulatory and budgetary considerations. This study will compare the economics of two specific alternatives for remediation of soils at the Hanford Site. Remove and dispose is compared to remove, treat, and dispose. The treatment analyzed in this study is volume reduction through soil washing

  1. Investigating the Trade-Off Between Power Generation and Environmental Impact of Tidal-Turbine Arrays Using Array Layout Optimisation and Habitat Sustainability Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    du Feu, R. J.; Funke, S. W.; Kramer, S. C.; Hill, J.; Piggott, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    The installation of tidal turbines into the ocean will inevitably affect the environment around them. However, due to the relative infancy of this sector the extent and severity of such effects is unknown. The layout of an array of turbines is an important factor in determining not only the array's final yield but also how it will influence regional hydrodynamics. This in turn could affect, for example, sediment transportation or habitat suitability. The two potentially competing objectives of extracting energy from the tidal current, and of limiting any environmental impact consequent to influencing that current, are investigated here. This relationship is posed as a multi-objective optimisation problem. OpenTidalFarm, an array layout optimisation tool, and MaxEnt, habitat sustainability modelling software, are used to evaluate scenarios off the coast of the UK. MaxEnt is used to estimate the likelihood of finding a species in a given location based upon environmental input data and presence data of the species. Environmental features which are known to impact habitat, specifically those affected by the presence of an array, such as bed shear stress, are chosen as inputs. MaxEnt then uses a maximum-entropy modelling approach to estimate population distribution across the modelled area. OpenTidalFarm is used to maximise the power generated by an array, or multiple arrays, through adjusting the position and number of turbines within them. It uses a 2D shallow water model with turbine arrays represented as adjustable friction fields. It has the capability to also optimise for user created functionals that can be expressed mathematically. This work uses two functionals; power extracted by the array, and the suitability of habitat as predicted by MaxEnt. A gradient-based local optimisation is used to adjust the array layout at each iteration. This work presents arrays that are optimised for both yield and the viability of habitat for chosen species. In each scenario

  2. Trade-off analysis of discharge-desiltation-turbidity and ANN analysis on sedimentation of a combined reservoir-reach system under multi-phase and multi-layer conjunctive releasing operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Lin; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Wei, Chih-Chiang; Yao, Chun-Hao

    2017-10-01

    Multi-objective reservoir operation considering the trade-off of discharge-desiltation-turbidity during typhoons and sediment concentration (SC) simulation modeling are the vital components for sustainable reservoir management. The purposes of this study were (1) to analyze the multi-layer release trade-offs between reservoir desiltation and intake turbidity of downstream purification plants and thus propose a superior conjunctive operation strategy and (2) to develop ANFIS-based (adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system) and RTRLNN-based (real-time recurrent learning neural networks) substitute SC simulation models. To this end, this study proposed a methodology to develop (1) a series of multi-phase and multi-layer sediment-flood conjunctive release modes and (2) a specialized SC numerical model for a combined reservoir-reach system. The conjunctive release modes involve (1) an optimization model where the decision variables are multi-phase reduction/scaling ratios and the timings to generate a superior total release hydrograph for flood control (Phase I: phase prior to flood arrival, Phase II/III: phase prior to/subsequent to peak flow) and (2) a combination method with physical limitations regarding separation of the singular hydrograph into multi-layer release hydrographs for sediment control. This study employed the featured signals obtained from statistical quartiles/sediment duration curve in mesh segmentation, and an iterative optimization model with a sediment unit response matrix and corresponding geophysical-based acceleration factors, for efficient parameter calibration. This research applied the developed methodology to the Shihmen Reservoir basin in Taiwan. The trade-off analytical results using Typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi as case examples revealed that owing to gravity current and re-suspension effects, Phase I + II can de-silt safely without violating the intake's turbidity limitation before reservoir discharge reaches 2238 m3/s; however

  3. A Value Chain Analysis of ghost nets in the Arafura Sea: identifying trans-boundary stakeholders, intervention points and livelihood trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J R A; Gunn, R; Berry, H L; Wagey, G A; Hardesty, B D; Wilcox, C

    2013-07-15

    Lost or discarded fishing nets are a significant component of marine debris which has trans-boundary impacts in large marine ecosystems. Such 'ghost nets' cause the by-catch of marine fauna and require retrieval from coastlines where they wash up. Identifying the causes of discarded nets and feasible intervention points requires analysis of a complex value chain and the stakeholders within it, yet no studies have attempted this. In this paper we combine Value Chain Analysis, commonly applied to understand value-adding for a commodity, with elements of Life Cycle Assessment and social network analysis to examine the drivers, stakeholders, economic, environmental and social costs and benefits in the life of a trawl net. We use the Arafura Sea as a case study, which is shared by Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Australia, and is the focus of a Trans-boundary Diagnostic Assessment (TDA) within the Arafura-Timor Seas Ecosystem Action program (ATSEA). We follow a trawl net through four sub-systems: manufacture of webbing in South Korea, fishing and loss by an Indonesian vessel, retrieval as ghost net on the northern Australian coastline by Indigenous rangers, and disposal or re-cycling as 'GhostNet Art' by Indigenous artists. Primary stakeholders along the value chain incur economic and social benefits, and economic and environmental costs. There is an anomaly in the chain between Indonesian fishermen and Indigenous rangers, artists and communities due to the lack of market linkages between these primary stakeholders. The first 'nexus of influence' where reductions in net losses and environmental costs can be achieved is through interactions between GhostNets Australia, the World Wide Fund for Nature and the Australian Government, which can influence Indonesian fishery management institutions and fishing crews. The second nexus is via the international art market which by publicising GhostNet Art can raise awareness amongst fish consumers about the impacts of ghost nets

  4. Vaginal native tissue repair versus transvaginal mesh repair for apical prolapse: how utilizing different methods of analysis affects the estimated trade-off between reoperation for mesh exposure/erosion and reoperation for recurrent prolapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieter, Alexis A; Willis-Gray, Marcella G; Weidner, Alison C; Visco, Anthony G; Myers, Evan R

    2015-05-01

    Informed decision-making about optimal surgical repair of apical prolapse with vaginal native tissue (NT) versus transvaginal mesh (TVM) requires understanding the balance between the potential "harm" of mesh-related complications and the potential "benefit" of reducing prolapse recurrence. Synthesis of data from observational studies is required and the current literature shows that the average follow-up for NT repair is significantly longer than for TVM repair. We examined this harm/benefit balance. We hypothesized that using different methods of analysis to incorporate follow-up time would affect the balance of outcomes. We used a Markov state transition model to estimate the cumulative 24-month probabilities of reoperation for mesh exposure/erosion or for recurrent prolapse after either NT or TVM repair. We used four different analytic approaches to estimate probability distributions ranging from simple pooled proportions to a random effects meta-analysis using study-specific events per patient-time. As variability in follow-up time was accounted for better, the balance of outcomes became more uncertain. For TVM repair, the incremental ratio of number of operations for mesh exposure/erosion per single reoperation for recurrent prolapse prevented increased progressively from 1.4 to over 100 with more rigorous analysis methods. The most rigorous analysis showed a 70% probability that TVM would result in more operations for recurrent prolapse repair than NT. Based on the best available evidence, there is considerable uncertainty about the harm/benefit trade-off between NT and TVM for apical prolapse repair. Future studies should incorporate time-to-event analyses, with greater standardization of reporting, in order to better inform decision-making.

  5. Dengeleme Teorisi’nin Geçerliliğinin Panel Veri Analizi ile Test Edilmesi: BİST’de Ampirik Bir Uygulama(Testing the Validity of Trade-Off Theory by Using Panel Regression Analysis: An Empirical Application on ISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İbrahim BOZKURT

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to test the validity of Trade-Off theory by investigating the relationship between capital structures and market values of firms on ISE. In this study, 127.008 financial ratio, 20.664 monthly stock return, 4.704 market value and debt ratio which are belong to 168 firms traded on ISE between 2005 and 2011 is used. Firstly, efficient model predicting bankruptcy is confirmed by using balanced panel regression analysis for ISE. Secondly, by using efficient model, firms are divided two groups that consist of firms which have or not bankruptcy risk for each period and the relationship market values and debt levels of firms in each group is analyzed by using unbalanced panel regression analysis. The results of the analysis reveal that there is positive relationship between market values and debt levels of firms in terms of both groups. This result implies that Trade-Off theory is not validity on ISE.

  6. Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators

  7. Analysis of radiology business models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Schomer, Donald F

    2013-03-01

    As health care moves to value orientation, radiology's traditional business model faces challenges to adapt. The authors describe a strategic value framework that radiology practices can use to best position themselves in their environments. This simplified construct encourages practices to define their dominant value propositions. There are 3 main value propositions that form a conceptual triangle, whose vertices represent the low-cost provider, the product leader, and the customer intimacy models. Each vertex has been a valid market position, but each demands specific capabilities and trade-offs. The underlying concepts help practices select value propositions they can successfully deliver in their competitive environments. Copyright © 2013 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Simbol-X Background Minimization: Mirror Spacecraft Passive Shielding Trade-off Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fioretti, V.; Malaguti, G.; Bulgarelli, A.; Palumbo, G. G. C.; Ferri, A.; Attinà, P.

    2009-05-01

    The present work shows a quantitative trade-off analysis of the Simbol-X Mirror Spacecraft (MSC) passive shielding, in the phase space of the various parameters: mass budget, dimension, geometry and composition. A simplified physical (and geometrical) model of the sky screen, implemented by means of a GEANT4 simulation, has been developed to perform a performance-driven mass optimization and evaluate the residual background level on Simbol-X focal plane.

  9. Coupled economic-ecological models for ecosystem-based fishery management: Exploration of trade-offs between model complexity and management needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Dan; Nielsen, J. Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem based fishery management has moved beyond rhetorical statements calling for a more holistic approach to resource management, to implementing decisions on resource use that are compatible with goals of maintaining ecosystem health and resilience. Coupled economic-ecological models...... are a primary tool for informing these decisions. Recognizing the importance of these models, the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) formed a Study Group on Integration of Economics, Stock Assessment and Fisheries Management (SGIMM) to explore alternative modelling approaches...... and ecological systems are inherently complex, models are abstractions of these systems incorporating varying levels of complexity depending on available data and the management issues to be addressed. The objective of this special session was to assess the pros and cons of increasing model complexity...

  10. Modelagem por meio de teoria de filas do tradeoff entre investir em canais de atendimento e satisfazer o nível de serviço em provedores INTERNET A queueing model to analyse the tradeoff between investing in attending channels and satisfying service level in INTERNET providers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisele Castro Fontanella

    1997-12-01

    simplest one is when the user connects to a provider's attending channel by an ordinary telephone line. Finding an available channel may not be an easy task, especially during peak hours. This results in a problem for the providers, which is to determine the optimal relationship between the number of users and the number of attending channels. To solve this problem, a provider needs to analyze the tradeoff between investing in capacity (number of channels and satisfying the targeted service level to the users (probability of finding an available channel. The objective of this paper is to model this tradeoff by means of queueing theory. The methodology involves basically three steps: (i analyze user arrival (calling and service (attending processes in chosen periods, (ii select an appropriate queueing model under some simplifying assumptions, and (iii generate tradeoff curves among system performance measures, in particular, between the probability of finding an available channel and the number of channels or the mean user arrival rate. To illustrate the application of this methodology, some results deriving from a case study performed in an access provider of São Paulo state, with Poisson arrival process but non-exponential service times, are presented. Some perspectives for future research are pointed out, such as grouping users into different classes as a function of their arrival and service behavior, and analyzing capacity partitioning as a function of these classes.

  11. Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, J.P.; Beard, T.D.; Bennett, E.M.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Cork, S.J.; Agard, J.; Dobson, A.P.; Peterson, G.D.

    2006-01-01

    Ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order). Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Successful strategies will

  12. Trade-offs across Space, Time, and Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Paul. Rodríguez

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem service (ES trade-offs arise from management choices made by humans, which can change the type, magnitude, and relative mix of services provided by ecosystems. Trade-offs occur when the provision of one ES is reduced as a consequence of increased use of another ES. In some cases, a trade-off may be an explicit choice; but in others, trade-offs arise without premeditation or even awareness that they are taking place. Trade-offs in ES can be classified along three axes: spatial scale, temporal scale, and reversibility. Spatial scale refers to whether the effects of the trade-off are felt locally or at a distant location. Temporal scale refers to whether the effects take place relatively rapidly or slowly. Reversibility expresses the likelihood that the perturbed ES may return to its original state if the perturbation ceases. Across all four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios and selected case study examples, trade-off decisions show a preference for provisioning, regulating, or cultural services (in that order. Supporting services are more likely to be "taken for granted." Cultural ES are almost entirely unquantified in scenario modeling; therefore, the calculated model results do not fully capture losses of these services that occur in the scenarios. The quantitative scenario models primarily capture the services that are perceived by society as more important - provisioning and regulating ecosystem services - and thus do not fully capture trade-offs of cultural and supporting services. Successful management policies will be those that incorporate lessons learned from prior decisions into future management actions. Managers should complement their actions with monitoring programs that, in addition to monitoring the short-term provisions of services, also monitor the long-term evolution of slowly changing variables. Policies can then be developed to take into account ES trade-offs at multiple spatial and temporal scales

  13. A 2 x 2 Taxonomy of Multilevel Latent Contextual Models: Accuracy-Bias Trade-Offs in Full and Partial Error Correction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludtke, Oliver; Marsh, Herbert W.; Robitzsch, Alexander; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2011-01-01

    In multilevel modeling, group-level variables (L2) for assessing contextual effects are frequently generated by aggregating variables from a lower level (L1). A major problem of contextual analyses in the social sciences is that there is no error-free measurement of constructs. In the present article, 2 types of error occurring in multilevel data…

  14. A 2 × 2 taxonomy of multilevel latent contextual models: accuracy-bias trade-offs in full and partial error correction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüdtke, Oliver; Marsh, Herbert W; Robitzsch, Alexander; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2011-12-01

    In multilevel modeling, group-level variables (L2) for assessing contextual effects are frequently generated by aggregating variables from a lower level (L1). A major problem of contextual analyses in the social sciences is that there is no error-free measurement of constructs. In the present article, 2 types of error occurring in multilevel data when estimating contextual effects are distinguished: unreliability that is due to measurement error and unreliability that is due to sampling error. The fact that studies may or may not correct for these 2 types of error can be translated into a 2 × 2 taxonomy of multilevel latent contextual models comprising 4 approaches: an uncorrected approach, partial correction approaches correcting for either measurement or sampling error (but not both), and a full correction approach that adjusts for both sources of error. It is shown mathematically and with simulated data that the uncorrected and partial correction approaches can result in substantially biased estimates of contextual effects, depending on the number of L1 individuals per group, the number of groups, the intraclass correlation, the number of indicators, and the size of the factor loadings. However, the simulation study also shows that partial correction approaches can outperform full correction approaches when the data provide only limited information in terms of the L2 construct (i.e., small number of groups, low intraclass correlation). A real-data application from educational psychology is used to illustrate the different approaches.

  15. Earth Observatory Satellite system definition study. Report 3: Design cost trade-off studies and recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    An analysis of the design and cost tradeoff aspects of the Earth Observatory Satellite (EOS) development is presented. The design/cost factors that affect a series of mission/system level concepts are discussed. The subjects considered are as follows: (1) spacecraft subsystem cost tradeoffs, (2) ground system cost tradeoffs, and (3) program cost summary. Tables of data are provided to summarize the results of the analyses. Illustrations of the various spacecraft configurations are included.

  16. Robust Optimization for Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem in Construction Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ming; Wu, Guangdong

    2014-01-01

    Construction projects are generally subject to uncertainty, which influences the realization of time-cost tradeoff in project management. This paper addresses a time-cost tradeoff problem under uncertainty, in which activities in projects can be executed in different construction modes corresponding to specified time and cost with interval uncertainty. Based on multiobjective robust optimization method, a robust optimization model for time-cost tradeoff problem is developed. In order to illus...

  17. Behavioral tradeoffs when dispersing across a patchy landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick A. Zollner; Steven L. Lima

    2005-01-01

    A better understanding of the behavior of dispersing animals will assist in determining the factors that limit their success and ultimately help improve the way dispersal is incorporated into population models. To that end, we used a simulation model to investigate three questions about behavioral tradeoffs that dispersing animals might face: (i) speed of movement...

  18. Operational trade-offs in reservoir control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, Aris P.

    1993-11-01

    Reservoir operation decisions require constant reevaluation in the face of conflicting objectives, varying hydrologic conditions, and frequent operational policy changes. Optimality is a relative concept very much dependent on the circumstances under which a decision is made. More than anything else, reservoir management authorities need the means to assess the impacts of various operational options. It is their responsibility to define what is desirable after a thorough evaluation of the existing circumstances. This article presents a model designed to generate operational trade-offs common among reservoir systems. The model avoids an all-encompassing problem formulation and distinguishes three operational modes (levels) corresponding to normal, drought, and flood operations. Each level addresses only relevant system elements and uses a static and a dynamic control module to optimize turbine performance within each planning period and temporally. The model is used for planning the operation of the Savannah River System.

  19. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  20. Constraints, Trade-offs and the Currency of Fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acerenza, Luis

    2016-03-01

    Understanding evolutionary trajectories remains a difficult task. This is because natural evolutionary processes are simultaneously affected by various types of constraints acting at the different levels of biological organization. Of particular importance are constraints where correlated changes occur in opposite directions, called trade-offs. Here we review and classify the main evolutionary constraints and trade-offs, operating at all levels of trait hierarchy. Special attention is given to life history trade-offs and the conflict between the survival and reproduction components of fitness. Cellular mechanisms underlying fitness trade-offs are described. At the metabolic level, a linear trade-off between growth and flux variability was found, employing bacterial genome-scale metabolic reconstructions. Its analysis indicates that flux variability can be considered as the currency of fitness. This currency is used for fitness transfer between fitness components during adaptations. Finally, a discussion is made regarding the constraints which limit the increase in the amount of fitness currency during evolution, suggesting that occupancy constraints are probably the main restrictions.

  1. Life-history tradeoffs and reproductive cycles in Spotted Owls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoelting, Ricka E.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Kendall, William L.; Peery, M. Zachariah

    2015-01-01

    The study of tradeoffs among life-history traits has long been key to understanding the evolution of life-history strategies. However, more recently, evolutionary ecologists have realized that reproductive costs have the potential to influence population dynamics. Here, we tested for costs of reproduction in the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis), and assessed whether costs of reproduction in year t − 1 on reproduction in year t could be responsible for regionally synchronized biennial cycles in reproductive output. Logistic regression analysis and multistate mark–recapture models with state uncertainty revealed that breeding reduced the likelihood of reproducing in the subsequent year by 16% to 38%, but had no influence on subsequent survival. We also found that costs of reproduction in year t − 1 were correlated with climatic conditions in year t, with evidence of higher costs during the dry phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Using a simulation-based population model, we showed that strong reproductive costs had the potential to create biennial cycles in population-level reproductive output; however, estimated costs of reproduction appeared to be too small to explain patterns observed in Spotted Owls. In the absence of strong reproductive costs, we hypothesize that observed natural cycles in the reproductive output of Spotted Owls are related to as-yet-unmeasured, regionally concordant fluctuations in environmental conditions or prey resources. Despite theoretical evidence for demographic effects, our analyses illustrate that linking tradeoffs to actual changes in population processes will be challenging because of the potential confounding effects of individual and environmental variation.

  2. Global agriculture and carbon trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Justin Andrew; Runge, Carlisle Ford; Senauer, Benjamin; Foley, Jonathan; Polasky, Stephen

    2014-08-26

    Feeding a growing and increasingly affluent world will require expanded agricultural production, which may require converting grasslands and forests into cropland. Such conversions can reduce carbon storage, habitat provision, and other ecosystem services, presenting difficult societal trade-offs. In this paper, we use spatially explicit data on agricultural productivity and carbon storage in a global analysis to find where agricultural extensification should occur to meet growing demand while minimizing carbon emissions from land use change. Selective extensification saves ∼ 6 billion metric tons of carbon compared with a business-as-usual approach, with a value of approximately $1 trillion (2012 US dollars) using recent estimates of the social cost of carbon. This type of spatially explicit geospatial analysis can be expanded to include other ecosystem services and other industries to analyze how to minimize conflicts between economic development and environmental sustainability.

  3. Tradeoffs Between Branch Mispredictions and Comparisons for Sorting Algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Moruz, Gabriel

    2005-01-01

    Branch mispredictions is an important factor affecting the running time in practice. In this paper we consider tradeoffs between the number of branch mispredictions and the number of comparisons for sorting algorithms in the comparison model. We prove that a sorting algorithm using O(dnlog n......) comparisons performs Omega(nlogd n) branch mispredictions. We show that Multiway MergeSort achieves this tradeoff by adopting a multiway merger with a low number of branch mispredictions. For adaptive sorting algorithms we similarly obtain that an algorithm performing O(dn(1+log (1+Inv/n))) comparisons must...... perform Omega(nlogd (1+Inv/n)) branch mispredictions, where Inv is the number of inversions in the input. This tradeoff can be achieved by GenericSort by Estivill-Castro and Wood by adopting a multiway division protocol and a multiway merging algorithm with a low number of branch mispredictions....

  4. Effect of RF Interference on the Security-Reliability Trade-off Analysis of Multiuser Mixed RF/FSO Relay Networks with Power Allocation

    KAUST Repository

    Abd El-Malek, Ahmed

    2017-03-27

    In this paper, the impact of radio frequency (RF) cochannel interference (CCI) on the performance of multiuser mixed RF/free-space optical (FSO) relay network with opportunistic user scheduling under eavesdropping attack is studied. The considered system includes multiple users, one decode-and-forward relay, one destination, and an eavesdropper. In the analysis, the RF/FSO channels follow Nakagami-m/Gamma-Gamma fading models, respectively, with pointing errors on the FSO link. Exact closed-form expression for the system outage probability is derived. Then, an asymptotic expression for the outage probability is obtained at the high signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio regime to get more insights on the system performance. Moreover, the obtained results are used to find the optimal transmission power in different turbulence conditions. The secrecy performance is studied in the presence of CCI at both the authorized relay and eavesdropper, where closed-form expressions are derived for the intercept probability. The physical layer security performance is enhanced using cooperative jamming models, where new closed-form expressions are derived for the intercept probability. Another power allocation optimization problem is formulated to find the optimal transmission and jamming powers. The derived analytical formulas are supported by numerical results to clarify the main contributions of this paper.

  5. Metabolic Trade-offs between Biomass Synthesis and Photosynthate Export at Different Light Intensities in a Genome–Scale Metabolic Model of Rice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Graham Poolman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Previously we have used a genome scale model of rice metabolism to describe how metabolism reconfigures at different light intensities in an expanding leaf of rice. Although this established that the metabolism of the leaf was adequatelyrepresented, in the model, the scenario was not that of the typical function of the leaf --- to provide material for the rest of the plant. Here we extend our analysis to explore the transition to a source leaf as export of photosynthate increases at the expense of making leaf biomass precursors, again as a function of light intensity. In particular we investigate whether, when the leaf is making a smaller range of compounds for export to the phloem, the same changes occur in the interactions between mitochondrial and chloroplast metabolism as seen in biomass synthesis for growth when light intensity increases. Our results show that the same changes occur qualitatively, though there are slight quantitative differences reflecting differences in the energy and redox requirements for the different metabolic outputs.

  6. The influence of the composition of tradeoffs on the generation of differentiated cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amado, André; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2017-06-01

    We study the emergence of cell differentiation under the influence of tradeoffs between the different functions the cell needs to perform. In the model, the viability of a given colony, i.e. the chance to survive and then form propagules, is determined by the capability of its lower level units to perform different functions. Due to the existence of tradeoffs, it can be evolutionarily advantageous for the colony to evolve the division of labor whereby the cells can suppress their contributions to some of the activities through the activation of regulatory genes. Our simulation results show that cell differentiation is more likely as the number of tradeoffs increases, but the outcome also depends on their strength. We observe the existence of critical values for the minimum number of tradeoffs and their strength beyond that maximum cell differentiation can be attained. The occurrence of a maximum tradeoff strength beyond which the population is no longer viable imposes an upper level of constraint to the system. This maximum tradeoff strength decreases with the number of tradeoffs. Besides the statistical study of the model, as a concrete example, we apply the model to a simplified cyanobacteria system. In this line, variations of this model can be applied to a variety of systems when the underlying tradeoffs are known or can be estimated.

  7. Cancer and Longevity--Is There a Trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Kaare; Pedersen, Jacob K; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B

    2012-01-01

    Animal models and a few human studies have suggested a complex interaction between cancer risk and longevity indicating a trade-off where low cancer risk is associated with accelerating aging phenotypes and, vice versa, that longevity potential comes with the cost of increased cancer risk...

  8. Operations and Modeling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebeling, Charles

    2005-01-01

    The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

  9. Range and Endurance Tradeoffs on Personal Rotorcraft Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Christopher A.

    2016-01-01

    Rotorcraft design has always been a challenging tradeoff among overall size, capabilities, complexity, and other factors based on available technology and customer requirements. Advancements in propulsion, energy systems and other technologies have enabled new vehicles and missions; complementary advances in analysis methods and tools enable exploration of these enhanced vehicles and the evolving mission design space. A system study was performed to better understand the interdependency between vehicle design and propulsion system capabilities versus hover / loiter requirements and range capability. Three representative vertical lift vehicles were developed to explore the tradeoff in capability between hover efficiency versus range and endurance capability. The vehicles were a single-main rotor helicopter, a tilt rotor, and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft. Vehicle capability was limited to two or three people (including pilot or crew) and maximum range within one hour of flight (100-200 miles, depending on vehicle). Two types of propulsion and energy storage systems were used in this study. First was traditional hydrocarbon-fueled cycles (such as Otto, diesel or gas turbine cycles). Second was an all-electric system using electric motors, power management and distribution, assuming batteries for energy storage, with the possibility of hydrocarbon-fueled range extenders. The high power requirements for hover significantly reduced mission radius capability. Loiter was less power intensive, resulting in about 1/2 the equivalent mission radius penalty. With so many design variables, the VTOL aircraft has the potential to perform well for a variety of missions. This vehicle is a good candidate for additional study; component model development is also required to adequately assess performance over the design space of interest.

  10. Managing trade-offs in landscape restoration and revegetation projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maron, Martine; Cockfield, Geoff

    2008-12-01

    Landscape restoration projects often have multiple and disparate conservation, resource enhancement, and sometimes economic objectives, since projects that seek to meet more than one objective tend to be viewed more positively by funding agencies and the community. The degree to which there are trade-offs among desired objectives is an important variable for decision makers, yet this is rarely explicitly considered. In particular, the existence of ecological thresholds has important implications for decision-making at both the project level and the regional level. We develop a model of the possibilities and choices for an agency seeking to achieve two environmental objectives in a region through revegetation of a number of sites. A graphical model of the production possibilities sets for a single revegetation project is developed, and different trade-off relationships are discussed and illustrated. Then the model is used to demonstrate the possibilities for managing all such projects within a region. We show that, where there are thresholds in the trade-off relationship between two objectives, specialization (single- or dominant-objective projects) should be considered. This is illustrated using a case study in which revegetation is used to meet avian biodiversity and salinity mitigation objectives. We conclude that where there are sufficient scientific data, explicit consideration of different types of trade-offs can assist in making decisions about the most efficient mix and type of projects to better achieve a range of objectives within a region.

  11. Time and outcome framing in intertemporal tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Marc; Read, Daniel

    2013-07-01

    A robust anomaly in intertemporal choice is the delay-speedup asymmetry: Receipts are discounted more, and payments are discounted less, when delayed than when expedited over the same interval. We developed 2 versions of the tradeoff model (Scholten & Read, 2010) to address such situations, in which an outcome is expected at a given time but then its timing is changed. The outcome framing model generalizes the approach taken by the hyperbolic discounting model (Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992): Not obtaining a positive outcome when expected is a worse than expected state, to which people are over-responsive, or hypersensitive, and not incurring a negative outcome when expected is a better than expected state, to which people are under-responsive, or hyposensitive. The time framing model takes a new approach: Delaying a positive outcome or speeding up a negative one involves a loss of time to which people are hypersensitive, and speeding up a positive outcome or delaying a negative one involves a gain of time to which people are hyposensitive. We compare the models on their quantitative predictions of indifference data from matching and preference data from choice. The time framing model systematically outperforms the outcome framing model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Snow model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    This study developed a new snow model and a database which warehouses geometric, weather and traffic : data on New Jersey highways. The complexity of the model development lies in considering variable road : width, different spreading/plowing pattern...

  14. Gcn4p and the Crabtree effect of yeast: drawing the causal model of the Crabtree effect in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and explaining evolutionary trade-offs of adaptation to galactose through systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, José L; Bordel, Sergio; Hong, KuFk-Ki; Nielsen, Jens

    2014-06-01

    By performing an integrated comparative analysis on the physiology and transcriptome of four different S. cerevisiae strains growing on galactose and glucose, it was inferred that the transcription factors Bas1p, Pho2p, and Gcn4p play a central role in the regulatory events causing the Crabtree effect in S. cerevisiae. The analysis also revealed that a point mutation in the RAS2 observed in a galactose-adapted strain causes a lower Crabtree effect and growth rate on glucose by decreasing the activity of Gcn4p while at the same time is at the origin of higher growth rate on galactose due to a lower activity of the transcriptional repressor Sok2p. The role of Gcn4p on the trade-off effect observed on glucose was confirmed experimentally. This was done by showing that the point mutation in RAS2 does not result in a lower growth rate on glucose if it is introduced in a GCN4-negative background. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Dynamical trade-offs arise from antagonistic coevolution and decrease intraspecific diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Weini; Traulsen, Arne; Werner, Benjamin; Hiltunen, Teppo; Becks, Lutz

    2017-12-12

    Trade-offs play an important role in evolution. Without trade-offs, evolution would maximize fitness of all traits leading to a "master of all traits". The shape of trade-offs has been shown to determine evolutionary trajectories and is often assumed to be static and independent of the actual evolutionary process. Here we propose that coevolution leads to a dynamical trade-off. We test this hypothesis in a microbial predator-prey system and show that the bacterial growth-defense trade-off changes from concave to convex, i.e., defense is effective and cheap initially, but gets costly when predators coevolve. We further explore the impact of such dynamical trade-offs by a novel mathematical model incorporating de novo mutations for both species. Predator and prey populations diversify rapidly leading to higher prey diversity when the trade-off is concave (cheap). Coevolution results in more convex (costly) trade-offs and lower prey diversity compared to the scenario where only the prey evolves.

  16. A Method for Exploring Program and Portfolio Affordability Tradeoffs Under Uncertainty Using Epoch-Era Analysis: A Case Application to Carrier Strike Group Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-30

    design for affordability by augmenting Epoch-Era Analysis with aspects of Modern Portfolio Theory . The method is demonstrated through the design of a...introduces a method to conduct portfolio design for affordability by augmenting Epoch-Era Analysis with aspects of Modern Portfolio Theory . The method...through the integration of elements of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and the SoS design literature. The proposed method is demonstrated in a case study

  17. Modeling the impact of forest biomass change on the subsequent ground level solar energy to enhance the understanding of ecosystem service tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/Methods Solar radiation is a significant environmental driver that impacts the quality and resilience of terrestrial and aquatic habitats, yet its spatiotemporal variations are complicated to model accurately at high resolution over large, complex watersheds. ...

  18. Multi-Objective Optimization for Analysis of Changing Trade-Offs in the Nepalese Water-Energy-Food Nexus with Hydropower Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Davidsen, Claus; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2017-01-01

    transmission constraints using an optimal power flow approach. Basin inflows, hydropower plant specifications, reservoir characteristics, reservoir rules, irrigation water demand, environmental flow requirements, power demand, and transmission line properties are provided as model inputs. The trade......-established water and power system models to develop a decision support tool combining multiple nexus objectives in a linear objective function. To demonstrate our framework, we compare eight Nepalese power development scenarios based on five nexus objectives: minimization of power deficit, maintenance of water...... availability for irrigation to support food self-sufficiency, reduction in flood risk, maintenance of environmental flows, and maximization of power export. The deterministic multi-objective optimization model is spatially resolved to enable realistic representation of the nexus linkages and accounts for power...

  19. Interparameter trade-off quantification and reduction in isotropic-elastic full-waveform inversion: synthetic experiments and Hussar land data set application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Wenyong; Geng, Yu; Innanen, Kristopher A.

    2018-05-01

    The problem of inverting for multiple physical parameters in the subsurface using seismic full-waveform inversion (FWI) is complicated by interparameter trade-off arising from inherent ambiguities between different physical parameters. Parameter resolution is often characterized using scattering radiation patterns, but these neglect some important aspects of interparameter trade-off. More general analysis and mitigation of interparameter trade-off in isotropic-elastic FWI is possible through judiciously chosen multiparameter Hessian matrix-vector products. We show that products of multiparameter Hessian off-diagonal blocks with model perturbation vectors, referred to as interparameter contamination kernels, are central to the approach. We apply the multiparameter Hessian to various vectors designed to provide information regarding the strengths and characteristics of interparameter contamination, both locally and within the whole volume. With numerical experiments, we observe that S-wave velocity perturbations introduce strong contaminations into density and phase-reversed contaminations into P-wave velocity, but themselves experience only limited contaminations from other parameters. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel strategy to mitigate the influence of interparameter trade-off with approximate contamination kernels. Furthermore, we recommend that the local spatial and interparameter trade-off of the inverted models be quantified using extended multiparameter point spread functions (EMPSFs) obtained with pre-conditioned conjugate-gradient algorithm. Compared to traditional point spread functions, the EMPSFs appear to provide more accurate measurements for resolution analysis, by de-blurring the estimations, scaling magnitudes and mitigating interparameter contamination. Approximate eigenvalue volumes constructed with stochastic probing approach are proposed to evaluate the resolution of the inverted models within the whole model. With a synthetic

  20. Features of spatial and functional segregation and integration of the primate connectome revealed by trade-off between wiring cost and efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuhan; Wang, Shengjun; Hilgetag, Claus C; Zhou, Changsong

    2017-09-01

    The primate connectome, possessing a characteristic global topology and specific regional connectivity profiles, is well organized to support both segregated and integrated brain function. However, the organization mechanisms shaping the characteristic connectivity and its relationship to functional requirements remain unclear. The primate brain connectome is shaped by metabolic economy as well as functional values. Here, we explored the influence of two competing factors and additional advanced functional requirements on the primate connectome employing an optimal trade-off model between neural wiring cost and the representative functional requirement of processing efficiency. Moreover, we compared this model with a generative model combining spatial distance and topological similarity, with the objective of statistically reproducing multiple topological features of the network. The primate connectome indeed displays a cost-efficiency trade-off and that up to 67% of the connections were recovered by optimal combination of the two basic factors of wiring economy and processing efficiency, clearly higher than the proportion of connections (56%) explained by the generative model. While not explicitly aimed for, the trade-off model captured several key topological features of the real connectome as the generative model, yet better explained the connectivity of most regions. The majority of the remaining 33% of connections unexplained by the best trade-off model were long-distance links, which are concentrated on few cortical areas, termed long-distance connectors (LDCs). The LDCs are mainly non-hubs, but form a densely connected group overlapping on spatially segregated functional modalities. LDCs are crucial for both functional segregation and integration across different scales. These organization features revealed by the optimization analysis provide evidence that the demands of advanced functional segregation and integration among spatially distributed regions may

  1. Features of spatial and functional segregation and integration of the primate connectome revealed by trade-off between wiring cost and efficiency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhan Chen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The primate connectome, possessing a characteristic global topology and specific regional connectivity profiles, is well organized to support both segregated and integrated brain function. However, the organization mechanisms shaping the characteristic connectivity and its relationship to functional requirements remain unclear. The primate brain connectome is shaped by metabolic economy as well as functional values. Here, we explored the influence of two competing factors and additional advanced functional requirements on the primate connectome employing an optimal trade-off model between neural wiring cost and the representative functional requirement of processing efficiency. Moreover, we compared this model with a generative model combining spatial distance and topological similarity, with the objective of statistically reproducing multiple topological features of the network. The primate connectome indeed displays a cost-efficiency trade-off and that up to 67% of the connections were recovered by optimal combination of the two basic factors of wiring economy and processing efficiency, clearly higher than the proportion of connections (56% explained by the generative model. While not explicitly aimed for, the trade-off model captured several key topological features of the real connectome as the generative model, yet better explained the connectivity of most regions. The majority of the remaining 33% of connections unexplained by the best trade-off model were long-distance links, which are concentrated on few cortical areas, termed long-distance connectors (LDCs. The LDCs are mainly non-hubs, but form a densely connected group overlapping on spatially segregated functional modalities. LDCs are crucial for both functional segregation and integration across different scales. These organization features revealed by the optimization analysis provide evidence that the demands of advanced functional segregation and integration among spatially

  2. The trade-off between food and temperature in the habitat choice of bluegill sunfish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, M.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model is presented to describe the trade-off between food and temperature in bluegills Lepomis macrochirus, where temperature was the primary factor used in determining the patch in which to reside.

  3. Survival analysis models and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xian

    2012-01-01

    Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws.  Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin

  4. CMS analysis school model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malik, S; Bloom, K; Shipsey, I; Cavanaugh, R; Klima, B; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  5. CMS Analysis School Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malik, S. [Nebraska U.; Shipsey, I. [Purdue U.; Cavanaugh, R. [Illinois U., Chicago; Bloom, K. [Nebraska U.; Chan, Kai-Feng [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.; D' Hondt, J. [Vrije U., Brussels; Klima, B. [Fermilab; Narain, M. [Brown U.; Palla, F. [INFN, Pisa; Rolandi, G. [CERN; Schörner-Sadenius, T. [DESY

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born over three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Centre), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe, CMS is trying to engage the collaboration in its discovery potential and maximize physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the career development of younger members. An extension of the concept to the dedicated software and hardware schools is also planned, keeping in mind the ensuing upgrade phase.

  6. Coding-Spreading Tradeoff in CDMA Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolas, Eduardo

    2002-01-01

    .... Comparing different combinations of coding and spreading with a traditional DS-CDMA, as defined in the IS-95 standard, allows the criteria to be defined for the best coding-spreading tradeoff in CDMA systems...

  7. Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Olfaction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rinberg, Dmitry; Koulakov, ALexel; Gelperin, Alan

    2006-01-01

    The basic psychophysical principle of speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) has been used to understand key aspects of neuronal information processing in vision and audition, but the principle of SAT is still debated in olfaction...

  8. Information-disturbance tradeoff in quantum measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maccone, Lorenzo

    2006-01-01

    We present a simple information-disturbance tradeoff relation valid for any general measurement apparatus: The disturbance between input and output states is lower bounded by the information the apparatus provides in distinguishing these two states

  9. ORGANISATIONAL CULTURE ANALYSIS MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mihaela Simona Maracine

    2012-01-01

    The studies and researches undertaken have demonstrated the importance of studying organisational culture because of the practical valences it presents and because it contributes to increasing the organisation’s performance. The analysis of the organisational culture’s dimensions allows observing human behaviour within the organisation and highlighting reality, identifying the strengths and also the weaknesses which have an impact on its functionality and development. In this paper, we try to...

  10. A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Qureshi, M. Ejaz; Jakeman, Anthony J.

    2012-08-01

    Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.

  11. Paternity-parasitism trade-offs: a model and test of host-parasite cooperation in an avian conspecific brood parasite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Bruce E; Hochachka, Wesley M; Eadie, John M

    2002-06-01

    Efforts to evaluate the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of conspecific brood parasitism in birds and other animals have focused on the fitness costs of parasitism to hosts and fitness benefits to parasites. However, it has been speculated recently that, in species with biparental care, host males might cooperate with parasitic females by allowing access to the host nest in exchange for copulations. We develop a cost-benefit model to explore the conditions under which such host-parasite cooperation might occur. When the brood parasite does not have a nest of her own, the only benefit to the host male is siring some of the parasitic eggs (quasi-parasitism). Cooperation with the parasite is favored when the ratio of host male paternity of his own eggs relative to his paternity of parasitic eggs exceeds the cost of parasitism. When the brood parasite has a nest of her own, a host male can gain additional, potentially more important benefits by siring the high-value, low-cost eggs laid by the parasite in her own nest. Under these conditions, host males should be even more likely to accept parasitic eggs in return for copulations with the parasitic female. We tested these predictions for American coots (Fulica americana), a species with a high frequency of conspecific brood parasitism. Multilocus DNA profiling indicated that host males did not sire any of the parasitic eggs laid in host nests, nor did they sire eggs laid by the parasite in her own nest. We used field estimates of the model parameters from a four-year study of coots to predict the minimum levels of paternity required for the costs of parasitism to be offset by the benefits of mating with brood parasites. Observed levels of paternity were significantly lower than those predicted under a variety of assumptions, and we reject the hypothesis that host males cooperated with parasitic females. Our model clarifies the specific costs and benefits that influence host-parasite cooperation and, more generally

  12. Trade-offs between Energy Efficiency improvements and additional Renewable Energy supply: A review of international experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldini, Mattia; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    improvements made in the energy saving field. Indeed, less attention has been paid to implement energy efficiency measures in energy systems modeling, which has resulted in scenarios where expedients for a wise use of energy (e.g. energy savings and renewables’ share) are unbalanced and cost......-savings opportunities are missed. The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate international experiences on finding the optimal trade-off between efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply. A critical review of each technique, focusing on purposes, methodology and outcomes, is provided along......-makers, informations useful for identify a suitable analysis for investigate on the optimal trade-off between renewables and energy efficiency measures in energy-systems under different objectives....

  13. Building America Performance Analysis Procedures: Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-06-01

    To measure progress toward multi-year research goals, cost and performance trade-offs are evaluated through a series of controlled field and laboratory experiments supported by energy analysis techniques using test data to calibrate simulation models.

  14. The sustainable arable land use pattern under the tradeoff of agricultural production, economic development, and ecological protection-an analysis of Dongting Lake basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Jiang, Xilong

    2017-11-01

    To find a solution regarding sustainable arable land use pattern in the important grain-producing area during the rapid urbanization process, this study combined agricultural production, locational condition, and ecological protection to determine optimal arable land use. Dongting Lake basin, one of the major grain producing areas in China, was chosen as the study area. The analysis of land use transition, the calculation of arable land barycenter, the landscape indices of arable land patches, and the comprehensive evaluation of arable land quality(productivity, economic location, and ecological condition) were adopted in this study. The results showed that (1) in 1990-2000, the arable land increased by 11.77%, and the transformation between arable land and other land use types actively occurred; in 2000-2010, the arable land decreased by 0.71%, and more ecological area (forestland, grassland, and water area) were disturbed and transferred into arable land; (2) urban expansion of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city cluster (the major economy center of this area) induced the northward movement of the arable land barycenter; (3) the landscape fragmentation and decentralization degree of arable land patches increased during 1990-2010; (4) potential high-quality arable land is located in the zonal area around Dongting Lake, which contains the Li County, Linli County, Jinshi County, Taoyuan County, Taojiang County, Ningxiang County, Xiangxiang County, Shaoshan County, Miluo County, and Zhuzhou County. The inferior low-quality arable land is located in the northwestern Wuling mountainous area, the southeastern hilly area, and the densely populated big cities and their surrounding area. In the optimized arable land use pattern, the high-quality land should be intensively used, and the low-quality arable land should be reduced used or prohibitively used. What is more, it is necessary to quit the arable land away from the surrounding area of cities appropriately, in order to

  15. Urban Forest Ecosystem Service Optimization, Tradeoffs, and Disparities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodnaruk, E.; Kroll, C. N.; Endreny, T. A.; Hirabayashi, S.; Yang, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Urban land area and the proportion of humanity living in cities is growing, leading to increased urban air pollution, temperature, and stormwater runoff. These changes can exacerbate respiratory and heat-related illnesses and affect ecosystem functioning. Urban trees can help mitigate these threats by removing air pollutants, mitigating urban heat island effects, and infiltrating and filtering stormwater. The urban environment is highly heterogeneous, and there is no tool to determine optimal locations to plant or protect trees. Using spatially explicit land cover, weather, and demographic data within biophysical ecosystem service models, this research expands upon the iTree urban forest tools to produce a new decision support tool (iTree-DST) that will explore the development and impacts of optimal tree planting. It will also heighten awareness of environmental justice by incorporating the Atkinson Index to quantify disparities in health risks and ecosystem services across vulnerable and susceptible populations. The study area is Baltimore City, a location whose urban forest and environmental justice concerns have been studied extensively. The iTree-DST is run at the US Census block group level and utilizes a local gradient approach to calculate the change in ecosystem services with changing tree cover across the study area. Empirical fits provide ecosystem service gradients for possible tree cover scenarios, greatly increasing the speed and efficiency of the optimization procedure. Initial results include an evaluation of the performance of the gradient method, optimal planting schemes for individual ecosystem services, and an analysis of tradeoffs and synergies between competing objectives.

  16. ROCK PROPERTIES MODEL ANALYSIS MODEL REPORT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clinton Lum

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis and Model Report (AMR) is to document Rock Properties Model (RPM) 3.1 with regard to input data, model methods, assumptions, uncertainties and limitations of model results, and qualification status of the model. The report also documents the differences between the current and previous versions and validation of the model. The rock properties models are intended principally for use as input to numerical physical-process modeling, such as of ground-water flow and/or radionuclide transport. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. This work was conducted in accordance with the following planning documents: WA-0344, ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1998'' (SNL 1997, WA-0358), ''3-D Rock Properties Modeling for FY 1999'' (SNL 1999), and the technical development plan, Rock Properties Model Version 3.1, (CRWMS MandO 1999c). The Interim Change Notice (ICNs), ICN 02 and ICN 03, of this AMR were prepared as part of activities being conducted under the Technical Work Plan, TWP-NBS-GS-000003, ''Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model, Process Model Report, Revision 01'' (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The purpose of ICN 03 is to record changes in data input status due to data qualification and verification activities. These work plans describe the scope, objectives, tasks, methodology, and implementing procedures for model construction. The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The work scope for this activity consists of the following: (1) Conversion of the input data (laboratory measured porosity data, x-ray diffraction mineralogy, petrophysical calculations of bound water, and petrophysical calculations of porosity) for each borehole into stratigraphic coordinates; (2) Re-sampling and merging of data sets; (3) Development of geostatistical simulations of porosity; (4

  17. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ming Lu; Hai Zhu; Xia Luo; Lei Lei

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model...

  18. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  19. A case study on the influence of multiscale modelling in design and structural analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Zwierzycki, Mateusz; La Magna, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    . To illustrate the concept of multi-scale modelling, the prototype of a bridge structure that was realised making use of this information transfer between models will be presented. The prototype primarily takes advantage of the geometric and material stiffening effect of incremental metal forming. The local......The current paper discusses the role of multi-scale modelling within the context of design and structural analysis. Depending on the level of detail, a design model may retain, lose or enhance key information. The term multi-scale refers to the break-down of a design and analysis task into multiple...... levels of detail and the transfer of this information between models. Focusing on the influence that different models have on the analysed performance of the structure, the paper will discuss the advantages and trade-offs of coupling multiple levels of abstraction in terms of design and structure...

  20. Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Zayed, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale Signal Analysis and Modeling presents recent advances in multiscale analysis and modeling using wavelets and other systems. This book also presents applications in digital signal processing using sampling theory and techniques from various function spaces, filter design, feature extraction and classification, signal and image representation/transmission, coding, nonparametric statistical signal processing, and statistical learning theory. This book also: Discusses recently developed signal modeling techniques, such as the multiscale method for complex time series modeling, multiscale positive density estimations, Bayesian Shrinkage Strategies, and algorithms for data adaptive statistics Introduces new sampling algorithms for multidimensional signal processing Provides comprehensive coverage of wavelets with presentations on waveform design and modeling, wavelet analysis of ECG signals and wavelet filters Reviews features extraction and classification algorithms for multiscale signal and image proce...

  1. Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fausch, Kurt D; Rieman, Bruce E; Dunham, Jason B; Young, Michael K; Peterson, Douglas P

    2009-08-01

    Conservation biologists often face the trade-off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non-native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non-native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non-native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade-off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion-isolation trade-off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make

  2. Performance trade-offs and ageing in the 'world's greatest athletes'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Careau, Vincent; Wilson, Robbie S

    2017-08-16

    The mechanistic foundations of performance trade-offs are clear: because body size and shape constrains movement, and muscles vary in strength and fibre type, certain physical traits should act in opposition with others (e.g. sprint versus endurance). Yet performance trade-offs are rarely detected, and traits are often positively correlated. A potential resolution to this conundrum is that within -individual performance trade-offs can be masked by among -individual variation in 'quality'. Although there is a current debate on how to unambiguously define and account for quality, no previous studies have partitioned trait correlations at the within- and among-individual levels. Here, we evaluate performance trade-offs among and within 1369 elite athletes that performed in a total of 6418 combined-events competitions (decathlon and heptathlon). Controlling for age, experience and wind conditions, we detected strong trade-offs between groups of functionally similar events (throwing versus jumping versus running) occurring at the among-individual level. We further modelled individual (co)variation in age-related plasticity of performance and found previously unseen trade-offs in throwing versus running performance that manifest through ageing. Our results verify that human performance is limited by fundamental genetic, environmental and ageing constraints that preclude the simultaneous improvement of performance in multiple dimensions. Identifying these constraints is fundamental to understanding performance trade-offs and predicting the ageing of motor function. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Environmentally induced development costs underlie fitness tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Greg M; Wilkinson, Melanie J; Aguirre, J David; Blows, Mark W; Ortiz-Barrientos, Daniel

    2018-06-01

    Local adaptation can lead to genotype-by-environment interactions, which can create fitness tradeoffs in alternative environments, and govern the distribution of biodiversity across geographic landscapes. Exploring the ecological circumstances that promote the evolution of fitness tradeoffs requires identifying how natural selection operates and during which ontogenetic stages natural selection is strongest. When organisms disperse to areas outside their natural range, tradeoffs might emerge when organisms struggle to reach key life history stages, or alternatively, die shortly after reaching life history stages if there are greater risks of mortality associated with costs to developing in novel environments. We used multiple populations from four ecotypes of an Australian native wildflower (Senecio pinnatifolius) in reciprocal transplants to explore how fitness tradeoffs arise across ontogeny. We then assessed whether the survival probability for plants from native and foreign populations was contingent on reaching key developmental stages. We found that fitness tradeoffs emerged as ontogeny progressed when native plants were more successful than foreign plants at reaching seedling establishment and maturity. Native and foreign plants that failed to reach seedling establishment died at the same rate, but plants from foreign populations died quicker than native plants after reaching seedling establishment, and died quicker regardless of whether they reached sexual maturity or not. Development rates were similar for native and foreign populations, but changed depending on the environment. Together, our results suggest that natural selection for environment-specific traits early in life history created tradeoffs between contrasting environments. Plants from foreign populations were either unable to develop to seedling establishment, or they suffered increased mortality as a consequence of reaching seedling establishment. The observation of tradeoffs together with

  4. Multivariate analysis: models and method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanz Perucha, J.

    1990-01-01

    Data treatment techniques are increasingly used since computer methods result of wider access. Multivariate analysis consists of a group of statistic methods that are applied to study objects or samples characterized by multiple values. A final goal is decision making. The paper describes the models and methods of multivariate analysis

  5. Domain specific modeling and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacob, Joost Ferdinand

    2008-01-01

    It is desirable to model software systems in such a way that analysis of the systems, and tool development for such analysis, is readily possible and feasible in the context of large scientific research projects. This thesis emphasizes the methodology that serves as a basis for such developments.

  6. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  8. Towards a Spatial Understanding of Trade-Offs in Sustainable Development: A Meso-Scale Analysis of the Nexus between Land Use, Poverty, and Environment in the Lao PDR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messerli, Peter; Bader, Christoph; Hett, Cornelia; Epprecht, Michael; Heinimann, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more

  9. Robust Optimization for Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction projects are generally subject to uncertainty, which influences the realization of time-cost tradeoff in project management. This paper addresses a time-cost tradeoff problem under uncertainty, in which activities in projects can be executed in different construction modes corresponding to specified time and cost with interval uncertainty. Based on multiobjective robust optimization method, a robust optimization model for time-cost tradeoff problem is developed. In order to illustrate the robust model, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II is modified to solve the project example. The results show that, by means of adjusting the time and cost robust coefficients, the robust Pareto sets for time-cost tradeoff can be obtained according to different acceptable risk level, from which the decision maker could choose the preferred construction alternative.

  10. Modeling and analysis of power processing systems: Feasibility investigation and formulation of a methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biess, J. J.; Yu, Y.; Middlebrook, R. D.; Schoenfeld, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    A review is given of future power processing systems planned for the next 20 years, and the state-of-the-art of power processing design modeling and analysis techniques used to optimize power processing systems. A methodology of modeling and analysis of power processing equipment and systems has been formulated to fulfill future tradeoff studies and optimization requirements. Computer techniques were applied to simulate power processor performance and to optimize the design of power processing equipment. A program plan to systematically develop and apply the tools for power processing systems modeling and analysis is presented so that meaningful results can be obtained each year to aid the power processing system engineer and power processing equipment circuit designers in their conceptual and detail design and analysis tasks.

  11. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  12. Tradeoff Analysis of Removing Dependents from USAREUR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-01

    discussed in the Family Housing section. Remaining are cost of living allowances (COLA), housing allowance to those residing on the economy ( HOLA ), and...regardless of where the family in Europe resides. HOLA , on the other hand, would be eliminated completely because there would be no require- ment for...economy for entertainment, hous- ing payments with their associated HOLA , most of the cost of living (COLA) allowance, and indirect payments such as

  13. Panel discussion: In vivo pet modeling and data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeppe, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    Following the first afternoon session on in vivo PET modeling and data analysis, a panel assembled to discuss in greater detail some of the issues pertinent to the kinetic analysis of PET data. The discussion was opened with a comment on some of the diofficulties of PET imaging in the study of neurotransmitter and receptor systems, including resolution limitations, image distortions, and levels of nonspecific binding. Dr. Hutchins reiterated that the imaging distortions predicted by his simulation studies include both open-quotes scaleclose quotes and open-quotes shape open-quotes distortions. Then the panel discussed the issue of registration of functional (PET) and anatomic (MRI or CT) images. The use of an anatomic image as a road map or guide to where one is in the physiologic PET image is a very important part of performing PET studies. It is at least as important to align a dynamic PET sequence internally, from frame to frame, as it is to align the PET study to an anatomic study. If a dynamic imaging procedure will take 30-90 min or more, a method is needed to assure that the patient has not moved substantially during the procedure or that the movement can be accounted for. Several possibilities were discussed. The next topic considered the issue of model complexity versus model reduction. If a model is too complex, it cannot provide accurate estimates of the model parameters due to the lack of identifiability of individual parameters. Modeling approaches such as simplifying the model to two parameters and changing the experimental protocol to provide more information so model simplification is not necessary were discussed on the basis of the tradeoff between procedural complexity and quality of information

  14. Evolutionary tradeoffs, Pareto optimality and the morphology of ammonite shells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tendler, Avichai; Mayo, Avraham; Alon, Uri

    2015-03-07

    Organisms that need to perform multiple tasks face a fundamental tradeoff: no design can be optimal at all tasks at once. Recent theory based on Pareto optimality showed that such tradeoffs lead to a highly defined range of phenotypes, which lie in low-dimensional polyhedra in the space of traits. The vertices of these polyhedra are called archetypes- the phenotypes that are optimal at a single task. To rigorously test this theory requires measurements of thousands of species over hundreds of millions of years of evolution. Ammonoid fossil shells provide an excellent model system for this purpose. Ammonoids have a well-defined geometry that can be parameterized using three dimensionless features of their logarithmic-spiral-shaped shells. Their evolutionary history includes repeated mass extinctions. We find that ammonoids fill out a pyramid in morphospace, suggesting five specific tasks - one for each vertex of the pyramid. After mass extinctions, surviving species evolve to refill essentially the same pyramid, suggesting that the tasks are unchanging. We infer putative tasks for each archetype, related to economy of shell material, rapid shell growth, hydrodynamics and compactness. These results support Pareto optimality theory as an approach to study evolutionary tradeoffs, and demonstrate how this approach can be used to infer the putative tasks that may shape the natural selection of phenotypes.

  15. A sustainability framework for assessing trade-offs in ecosystem services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeannine Cavender-Bares

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Achieving sustainability, i.e., meeting the needs of current populations without compromising the needs of future generations, is the major challenge facing global society in the 21st century. Navigating the inherent trade-offs between provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting ecosystem services, and doing so in a way that does not compromise natural capital needed to provide services in the future, is critical for sustainable resource management. Here we build upon existing literature, primarily from economics and ecology, to present an analytical framework that integrates (1 the ecological mechanisms that underpin ecosystem services, (2 biophysical trade-offs and inherent limits that constrain management options, (3 preferences and values of stakeholders, and (4 explicit analysis of how systems evolve through time to ensure the goal of meeting the needs of future generations. Well-known ecological models define the relationships and trade-offs among services that represents an "efficiency frontier." Well-known methods in economics that combine preferences that define the willingness of stakeholders to trade off ecosystem services on the efficiency frontiers illuminate desirable outcomes that meet human needs. System dynamics show how the system will evolve with consequent impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being and the effects this has on achieving sustainability. Heterogeneity in biophysical constraints, uncertainty, technological advances, and obstacles imposed by societal factors and governance regimes influence potential and realized ecosystem services. Using a set of contrasting scenarios, we illustrate how progress can be made toward sustainability and the important obstacles that must be addressed in doing so. Our framework for analyzing sustainability drawn from economics and ecology is intended to make an integration of concepts from both disciplines accessible to a wider audience.

  16. Payload system tradeoffs for mobile communications satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, H. J.

    1990-01-01

    System level trade-offs carried out during Mobile Satellite (M-SAT) design activities are described. These trade-offs relate to the use of low level beam forming, flexible power and spectrum distribution, and selection of the number of beams to cover the service area. It is shown that antenna performance can be improved by sharing horns between beams using a low level beam forming network (BFN). Additionally, greatly increased power utilization is possible using a hybrid matrix concept to share power between beams.

  17. Efficient operation of a multi-purpose reservoir in Chile: Tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez Cabrera, J. M., Sr.; Olivares, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    This study proposes a method to develop efficient operational policies for a reservoir the southern Chile. The main water uses in this system are hydropower and irrigation, with conflicting seasonal demands. The conflict between these two uses is currently managed through a so-called "irrigation agreement" which defines a series of operational conditions on the reservoir by restricting volumes used for power production depending on reservoir storage level. Other than that, the reservoir operation is driven by cost-minimization over the power grid. Recent evidence shows an increasing degree of conflict in this basin, which suggests that the static approach of irrigation agreements, might no longer be appropriate. Moreover, this agreement could be revised in light of decreased water availability. This problem poses a challenge related to the spatial scope of analysis. Thus, irrigation benefits are driven by decisions made within the basin, whereas hydropower benefits depend on the operation of the entire power grid. Exploring the tradeoffs between these two water uses involves modeling both scales. The proposed methodology integrates information from both a grid-wide power operations model and a basin-wide agro-economic model into a decision model for optimal reservoir operation. The first model, a hydrothermal coordination tool, schedules power production by each plant in the grid, and allows capturing technical and economic aspects to the operation of hydropower reservoirs. The agro-economic model incorporates economic features of irrigation in the basin, and allows obtaining irrigation water demand functions. Finally, the results of both models are integrated into a single model for optimal reservoir operation considering the tradeoffs between the two uses. The result of the joint operation of water resources, show a flexible coordination of uses, revealing the opportunity cost of irrigation, which it gives the possibility of negotiating transfers of water to

  18. Reliability analysis and operator modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

  19. Give 'til it hurts: trade-offs between immunity and male reproductive effort in the decorated cricket, Gryllodes sigillatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershman, S N; Barnett, C A; Pettinger, A M; Weddle, C B; Hunt, J; Sakaluk, S K

    2010-04-01

    Trade-offs between life-history variables can be manifested at either the phenotypic or genetic level, with vastly different evolutionary consequences. Here, we examined whether male decorated crickets (Gryllodes sigillatus) from eight inbred lines and the outbred founder population from which they were derived, trade-off immune effort [lytic activity, phenoloxidase (PO) activity or encapsulation] to produce spermatophylaxes: costly nuptial food gifts essential for successful sperm transfer. Canonical correlation analysis of the outbred population revealed a trade-off between spermatophylax mass and lytic activity. Analysis of our inbred lines, however, revealed that although PO activity, encapsulation, body mass, spermatophylax mass and ampulla (sperm capsule) mass were all highly heritable, lytic activity was not, and there was, therefore, no negative genetic correlation between lytic activity and spermatophylax mass. Thus, males showed a phenotypic but not a genetic trade-off between spermatophylax mass and lytic activity, suggesting that this trade-off is mediated largely by environmental factors.

  20. Co-existence of multiple trade-off currencies shapes evolutionary outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksson, Caroline; Salguero-Gómez, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary studies often assume that energy is the primary resource (i.e. “currency”) at the heart of the survival-reproduction trade-off, despite recent evidence to the contrary. The evolutionary consequences of having a single trade-off currency versus multiple competing currencies are unknown. Using simulations, we modeled the evolution of either a single physiological currency between reproduction and survival, or of multiple such currencies. For a wide array of model specifications varying functional forms and strengths of the trade-offs, we show that the presence of multiple currencies (e.g. nutrients, time) generally results in the evolution of higher lifetime reproductive success through partial circumvention of such trade-offs. Evolution of the underlying physiology is also more highly contingent with multiple currencies. These results challenge the paradigm of a single survival-reproduction trade-off as central to life history evolution, suggesting greater roles for physiological constraints and contingency, and implying potential selection for evolution of multiple trade-off currencies. PMID:29216275

  1. Co-existence of multiple trade-off currencies shapes evolutionary outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan A Cohen

    Full Text Available Evolutionary studies often assume that energy is the primary resource (i.e. "currency" at the heart of the survival-reproduction trade-off, despite recent evidence to the contrary. The evolutionary consequences of having a single trade-off currency versus multiple competing currencies are unknown. Using simulations, we modeled the evolution of either a single physiological currency between reproduction and survival, or of multiple such currencies. For a wide array of model specifications varying functional forms and strengths of the trade-offs, we show that the presence of multiple currencies (e.g. nutrients, time generally results in the evolution of higher lifetime reproductive success through partial circumvention of such trade-offs. Evolution of the underlying physiology is also more highly contingent with multiple currencies. These results challenge the paradigm of a single survival-reproduction trade-off as central to life history evolution, suggesting greater roles for physiological constraints and contingency, and implying potential selection for evolution of multiple trade-off currencies.

  2. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer; Shen, Haipeng; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM

  3. Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Horton, William

    1996-01-01

    This report documents the Ground Vehicle System Integration (GVSI) and Design Optimization Model GVSI is a top-level analysis tool designed to support engineering tradeoff studies and vehicle design optimization efforts...

  4. Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

  5. Characteristics of the large corporation-based, bureaucratic model among oecd countries - an foi model analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartha Zoltán

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Deciding on the development path of the economy has been a delicate question in economic policy, not least because of the trade-off effects which immediately worsen certain economic indicators as steps are taken to improve others. The aim of the paper is to present a framework that helps decide on such policy dilemmas. This framework is based on an analysis conducted among OECD countries with the FOI model (focusing on future, outside and inside potentials. Several development models can be deduced by this method, out of which only the large corporation-based, bureaucratic model is discussed in detail. The large corporation-based, bureaucratic model implies a development strategy focused on the creation of domestic safe havens. Based on country studies, it is concluded that well-performing safe havens require the active participation of the state. We find that, in countries adhering to this model, business competitiveness is sustained through intensive public support, and an active role taken by the government in education, research and development, in detecting and exploiting special market niches, and in encouraging sectorial cooperation.

  6. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  7. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  8. A framework for analyzing the economic tradeoffs between urban commerce and security against terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Avetisyan, Misak; Chatterjee, Samrat

    2014-08-01

    This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Reassessing the Trade-off Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosas, Guillermo; Manzetti, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Do economic conditions drive voters to punish politicians that tolerate corruption? Previous scholarly work contends that citizens in young democracies support corrupt governments that are capable of promoting good economic outcomes, the so-called trade-off hypothesis. We test this hypothesis based...

  10. Rate-cost tradeoffs in control

    KAUST Repository

    Kostina, Victoria; Hassibi, Babak

    2017-01-01

    function is the mean-square deviation of the system state from the desired state. We study the fundamental tradeoff between the communication rate r bits/sec and the limsup of the expected cost b, and show a lower bound on the rate necessary to attain b

  11. Models and statistical analysis of organic micropollutants in groundwater-based drinking water resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguerra, Flavio

    The access to safe drinking water is essential for the well being of the population. The spread of micropollutant contamination jeopardise many freshwater reservoirs, and is a serious threat for human health, especially because of its long-term effects. To asses the threat of contamination, models...... to model. The identification of dominant processes is an essential step in the understanding of system behaviour, because it enables the development of simplified models that can approximate the fate of contaminants with the best trade-off between model complexity and reliability of results. In this thesis......, global sensitivity analysis techniques are used to assess detailed models in order to identify the main processes involved in the degradation of chlorinated solvents in the subsurface, and in the transport of pesticides from surface water into nearby wells in confined aquifers. Statistical techniques...

  12. Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generation (ReEDS Model Analysis) U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Modeling and Analysis Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis NREL's energy-water modeling and analysis vulnerabilities from various factors, including water. Example Projects Renewable Electricity Futures Study

  13. Trait-fitness relationships determine how trade-off shapes affect species coexistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Elias; Becks, Lutz; Gaedke, Ursula

    2017-12-01

    Trade-offs between functional traits are ubiquitous in nature and can promote species coexistence depending on their shape. Classic theory predicts that convex trade-offs facilitate coexistence of specialized species with extreme trait values (extreme species) while concave trade-offs promote species with intermediate trait values (intermediate species). We show here that this prediction becomes insufficient when the traits translate non-linearly into fitness which frequently occurs in nature, e.g., an increasing length of spines reduces grazing losses only up to a certain threshold resulting in a saturating or sigmoid trait-fitness function. We present a novel, general approach to evaluate the effect of different trade-off shapes on species coexistence. We compare the trade-off curve to the invasion boundary of an intermediate species invading the two extreme species. At this boundary, the invasion fitness is zero. Thus, it separates trait combinations where invasion is or is not possible. The invasion boundary is calculated based on measurable trait-fitness relationships. If at least one of these relationships is not linear, the invasion boundary becomes non-linear, implying that convex and concave trade-offs not necessarily lead to different coexistence patterns. Therefore, we suggest a new ecological classification of trade-offs into extreme-favoring and intermediate-favoring which differs from a purely mathematical description of their shape. We apply our approach to a well-established model of an empirical predator-prey system with competing prey types facing a trade-off between edibility and half-saturation constant for nutrient uptake. We show that the survival of the intermediate prey depends on the convexity of the trade-off. Overall, our approach provides a general tool to make a priori predictions on the outcome of competition among species facing a common trade-off in dependence of the shape of the trade-off and the shape of the trait

  14. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. A possible tradeoff between developmental rate and pathogen ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    related tradeoffs is that they are mediated via the conflict- ... Keywords. life-history evolution; tradeoff; development time; immune function; pathogen; Drosophila. Journal of Genetics .... This work was supported in parts by funds from Depart-.

  16. Conformational analysis of lignin models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Helio F. dos

    2001-01-01

    The conformational equilibrium for two 5,5' biphenyl lignin models have been analyzed using a quantum mechanical semiempirical method. The gas phase and solution structures are discussed based on the NMR and X-ray experimental data. The results obtained showed that the observed conformations are solvent-dependent, being the geometries and the thermodynamic properties correlated with the experimental information. This study shows how a systematic theoretical conformational analysis can help to understand chemical processes at a molecular level. (author)

  17. Regime switches in the risk-return trade-off

    OpenAIRE

    Marcellino, Massimiliano; Ghysels, Eric; Guerin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This finding is robust to a large range of specifications. In the first regime characterized by low ex-post returns and high volatility, the risk-return relation is reversed, whereas the intuitive positive ...

  18. Electric-powered passenger vehicle design study program. Task 1. Tradeoff studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlett, B.H.

    1976-09-16

    Using the baseline vehicle and power system design established previously to meet the performance goals of the program, three power system computer simulation programs were prepared for the basic vehicle tradeoff studies. These programs simulate the performance of the power system and vehicle over different types of driving conditions such as maximum power acceleration, deceleration, city driving cycles, and hill climbing, and permit accurate determination of the benefits of the unique hybrid power system, the total energy required for the suburban city driving cycle, and the extremes of the operating envelopes of the components so that component design options can be defined and studied. Component design tradeoff studies were conducted, including sensitivity studies to show the criticality of the various losses and unknowns in the analytical models. Also, preliminary vehicle layout studies were performed to determine the best locations of the power system and the batteries. Three basic design options are identified for further study. Economic studies were initiated using analytical models to establish the complete vehicle weight and cost breakdowns. Preliminary reliability and safety studies were completed, and maintainability and safety certification criteria established. The detailed analysis of the power system has verified the feasibility of the system and of the performance expectations. Also, the feasibility of energy recovery from regenerative braking has been confirmed. The sensitivity analysis of the power system shows that sufficient margin for unknown design variables is provided. The preliminary economic analysis indicates that the most difficult objective of the study will be the selection of the cost and weight relationships which are required to achieve the overall cost objectives.

  19. Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

    2014-08-01

    Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing allocations is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks firstly to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly, it seeks to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of proposed new rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To approximate the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management simulation model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume-dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for eight objectives covering the provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Trade-off plots allow decision-makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets and irrigation investment options by visualising their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against the disturbance of ecosystems and local livelihoods that depend on them. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to come at a high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of "water-energy-food nexus" resource security issues.

  20. Distribution system modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Kersting, William H

    2001-01-01

    For decades, distribution engineers did not have the sophisticated tools developed for analyzing transmission systems-often they had only their instincts. Things have changed, and we now have computer programs that allow engineers to simulate, analyze, and optimize distribution systems. Powerful as these programs are, however, without a real understanding of the operating characteristics of a distribution system, engineers using the programs can easily make serious errors in their designs and operating procedures. Distribution System Modeling and Analysis helps prevent those errors. It gives readers a basic understanding of the modeling and operating characteristics of the major components of a distribution system. One by one, the author develops and analyzes each component as a stand-alone element, then puts them all together to analyze a distribution system comprising the various shunt and series devices for power-flow and short-circuit studies. He includes the derivation of all models and includes many num...

  1. 48 CFR 15.101-1 - Tradeoff process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Tradeoff process. 15.101-1... AND CONTRACT TYPES CONTRACTING BY NEGOTIATION Source Selection Processes and Techniques 15.101-1 Tradeoff process. (a) A tradeoff process is appropriate when it may be in the best interest of the...

  2. Profit Analysis and Supply Chain Planning Model for Closed-Loop Supply Chain in Fashion Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jisoo Oh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, due to market growth and use of synthetic fiber, the fashion industry faces a rapid increase of CO2 emission throughout the production cycle and raises environmental issues in recovery processing. This study proposes a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC structure in fashion industry and develops its planning model as multi-objective mixed integer linear programming to find an optimal trade-off between CLSC profit and CO2 emission. The planning model is associated with the profit analysis of each member in CLSC to find the optimal price of products on CLSC network. The model determines optimal production, transportation, and inventory quantities on CLSC network. The proposed models are validated using numerical experiments and sensitivity analyses, and from the results some managerial insights are addressed.

  3. The hyperspectral imaging trade-off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Jens Michael

    , this will be the standard situation, and it enables the detection of small spectral features like peaks, valleys and shoulders for a wide range of chemistries. Everything else being equal this is what you would wish for, and hyperspectral imaging is often used in research and in remote sensing because of the needs and cost......Although it has no clear-cut definition, hyperspectral imaging in the UV-Visible-NIR wavelength region seems to mean spectral image sampling in bands from 10 nm width or narrower that enables spectral reconstruction over some wavelength interval. For non-imaging spectral applications...... structures in these projects. However, hyperspectral imaging is a sampling choice within spectral imaging that typically will impose some trade-offs, and these trade-offs will not be optimal for many applications. The purpose of this presentation is to point out and increase the awareness of these trade...

  4. Temporal trade-offs in psychophysics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barack, David L; Gold, Joshua I

    2016-04-01

    Psychophysical techniques typically assume straightforward relationships between manipulations of real-world events, their effects on the brain, and behavioral reports of those effects. However, these relationships can be influenced by many complex, strategic factors that contribute to task performance. Here we discuss several of these factors that share two key features. First, they involve subjects making flexible use of time to process information. Second, this flexibility can reflect the rational regulation of information-processing trade-offs that can play prominent roles in particular temporal epochs: sensitivity to stability versus change for past information, speed versus accuracy for current information, and exploitation versus exploration for future goals. Understanding how subjects manage these trade-offs can be used to help design and interpret psychophysical studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Ventilation Model and Analysis Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chipman, V.

    2003-01-01

    This model and analysis report develops, validates, and implements a conceptual model for heat transfer in and around a ventilated emplacement drift. This conceptual model includes thermal radiation between the waste package and the drift wall, convection from the waste package and drift wall surfaces into the flowing air, and conduction in the surrounding host rock. These heat transfer processes are coupled and vary both temporally and spatially, so numerical and analytical methods are used to implement the mathematical equations which describe the conceptual model. These numerical and analytical methods predict the transient response of the system, at the drift scale, in terms of spatially varying temperatures and ventilation efficiencies. The ventilation efficiency describes the effectiveness of the ventilation process in removing radionuclide decay heat from the drift environment. An alternative conceptual model is also developed which evaluates the influence of water and water vapor mass transport on the ventilation efficiency. These effects are described using analytical methods which bound the contribution of latent heat to the system, quantify the effects of varying degrees of host rock saturation (and hence host rock thermal conductivity) on the ventilation efficiency, and evaluate the effects of vapor and enhanced vapor diffusion on the host rock thermal conductivity

  6. Speed-Accuracy Tradeoffs in Speech Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    capacity of discrete motor responses under different cognitive sets. Journal of Experimental Psychology , 71 (4), 475. SPEED-ACCURACY TRADEOFFS IN HUMAN...space defined by vocal tract constriction degree and location, as in Articulatory Phonology Browman & Goldstein (1992). These high-level spaces are...relationship between speech gestures varies as a function of their positions within the syllable Browman & Goldstein (1995); Krakow (1999); Byrd et al

  7. Tritium-containment systems: a tradeoff study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Folkers, C.L.; Cena, R.J.

    1978-01-01

    Various design parameters are evaluated that affect the performance of tritium-containment systems for fusion reactors. Our study included a review of such parameters as tritium forms, impurities, catalysts, adsorbents, getters, and as low as reasonably achievable principles. We organized these schemes, which can be considered for treating either air or inert atmospheres, so one could easily make orderly choices and tradeoffs for optimum performance. The relationships examined involved purification-system decontamination factors, flow rates, recycling and leakage, and environmental losses

  8. Uses And Characteristics Of Dynamic Tradeoff Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwuttke, Ursula M.

    1995-01-01

    Report discusses basic concepts, some applications, and performance characteristics of dynamic tradeoff evaluation (DTE). Basic concepts of DTE also described in "Dynamic Restructuring of Problems in Artificial Intelligence" (NPO-18488). DTE is method of enhancing real-time performance of artificial-intelligence system such as might be used to monitor data from multiple sensors in factory, aircraft, spacecraft, or other complex system of equipment. Report presents evaluation of DTE as applied to spacecraft-monitoring problems.

  9. Design trade-offs for homing missiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Allen; Moore, William

    1992-05-01

    Major design considerations, trade-offs and technology issues for future hypervelocity, anti-missile interceptors are presented in an overview format. Two classes of interceptors are considered: a low altitude interceptor using an active radar seeker for defense against tactical ballistic missiles (TBMs) and a higher altitude interceptor using a passive infra-red seeker for defense against ICBMs. Considerations are presented in the areas of mission requirements, seeker selection, aerodynamic and aerothermal environments, control systems, and guidance performance.

  10. ANALYSIS MODEL FOR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA BURJA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The inventory represents an essential component for the assets of the enterprise and the economic analysis gives them special importance because their accurate management determines the achievement of the activity object and the financial results. The efficient management of inventory requires ensuring an optimum level for them, which will guarantee the normal functioning of the activity with minimum inventory expenses and funds which are immobilised. The paper presents an analysis model for inventory management based on their rotation speed and the correlation with the sales volume illustrated in an adequate study. The highlighting of the influence factors on the efficient inventory management ensures the useful information needed to justify managerial decisions, which will lead to a balancedfinancial position and to increased company performance.

  11. Simplified model for DNB analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Filho, E.

    1979-08-01

    In a pressurized water nuclear reactor (PWR), the power of operation is restricted by the possibility of the occurrence of the departure from nucleate boiling called DNB (Departure from Nucleate Boiling) in the hottest channel of the core. The present work proposes a simplified model that analyses the thermal-hydraulic conditions of the coolant in the hottest channel of PWRs with the objective to evaluate BNB in this channel. For this the coupling between the hot channel and typical nominal channels assumed imposing the existence of a cross flow between these channels in a way that a uniforme pressure axial distribution results along the channels. The model is applied for Angra-I reactor and the results are compared with those of Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) obtained by Westinghouse through the THINC program, beeing considered satisfactory (Author) [pt

  12. Trade-Off and Synergy among Ecosystem Services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keyu Qin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With rapidly increasing populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans have been enhancing the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for certain trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, having only a small number of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focuses on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use schemes. It reveals the spatial and temporal distributions of and changes in ecosystem services. Based on a correlation rate model and distribution mapping, the trade-offs and synergies of these ecosystem services can be found. Here, we also describe a new simple approach to quantify the relationships of every trade-off and synergy. The results show that all ecosystem services possess trade-offs and synergies in the study area. The trend of improving carbon sequestration and water interception indicate that these key ecosystem services have the strongest synergy. And the decrease in regional agricultural production and other services, except water yield, may be considered as trade-offs. The synergy between water yield and agricultural production was the most significant, while the trade-off between water interception and carbon sequestration was the most apparent, according to our interaction quantification model. The results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, and can be integrated into land use decision-making.

  13. Trade-Off and Synergy among Ecosystem Services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Keyu; Li, Jing; Yang, Xiaonan

    2015-11-03

    Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With rapidly increasing populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans have been enhancing the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for certain trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, having only a small number of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focuses on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use schemes. It reveals the spatial and temporal distributions of and changes in ecosystem services. Based on a correlation rate model and distribution mapping, the trade-offs and synergies of these ecosystem services can be found. Here, we also describe a new simple approach to quantify the relationships of every trade-off and synergy. The results show that all ecosystem services possess trade-offs and synergies in the study area. The trend of improving carbon sequestration and water interception indicate that these key ecosystem services have the strongest synergy. And the decrease in regional agricultural production and other services, except water yield, may be considered as trade-offs. The synergy between water yield and agricultural production was the most significant, while the trade-off between water interception and carbon sequestration was the most apparent, according to our interaction quantification model. The results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, and can be integrated into land use decision-making.

  14. Value tradeoffs for the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keeney, R.L.; Winterfeldt, D. von [Decision Insights, Inc., Irvine, CA (United States)

    1997-09-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program at the Hanford Site of the Department of Energy has adopted a logical approach to making decisions that uses decision analysis to structure and analyze decision alternatives and public values to evaluate them. This report is the third in a series to support this effort. The first identified a set of objectives (called {open_quotes}ends objectives{close_quotes}) that characterize the ultimate goals and desires of Hanford decision makers and stakeholders. The second report developed operational measures for these ends objectives (called {open_quotes}ends measures{close_quotes}) and it also developed a set of performance objectives and associated performance measures that are more directly related to how well decision alternatives in the TWRS program perform to achieve the ends objectives. The present report describes the development of quantitative value tradeoffs for both the ends measures and the performance measures. First, five national value experts were interviewed to obtain value tradeoffs for units of the ends measures identified in Keeney and von Winterfeldt (1996). The results of this assessment are shown in Table S1. Second, the implied value tradeoffs for the units of the performance measures were calculated from the value tradeoffs for units of the ends measures provided by the national experts. When calculating the value tradeoffs for the units of the performance measures, very simple quantitative relationships between ends and performance measures were assumed. The results of this calculation are shown in Table S2. The results of this report shown in Tables S1 and S2 should be considered preliminary and largely illustrative of the principles for developing value tradeoffs. The report lists several important caveats and recommendations for how future work can improve on the assessment of value tradeoffs.

  15. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. Clayton

    2000-12-19

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M&O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and the

  16. Geologic Framework Model Analysis Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clayton, R.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), Version 3.1 (GFM3.1) with regard to data input, modeling methods, assumptions, uncertainties, limitations, and validation of the model results, qualification status of the model, and the differences between Version 3.1 and previous versions. The GFM represents a three-dimensional interpretation of the stratigraphy and structural features of the location of the potential Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository. The GFM encompasses an area of 65 square miles (170 square kilometers) and a volume of 185 cubic miles (771 cubic kilometers). The boundaries of the GFM were chosen to encompass the most widely distributed set of exploratory boreholes (the Water Table or WT series) and to provide a geologic framework over the area of interest for hydrologic flow and radionuclide transport modeling through the unsaturated zone (UZ). The depth of the model is constrained by the inferred depth of the Tertiary-Paleozoic unconformity. The GFM was constructed from geologic map and borehole data. Additional information from measured stratigraphy sections, gravity profiles, and seismic profiles was also considered. This interim change notice (ICN) was prepared in accordance with the Technical Work Plan for the Integrated Site Model Process Model Report Revision 01 (CRWMS M and O 2000). The constraints, caveats, and limitations associated with this model are discussed in the appropriate text sections that follow. The GFM is one component of the Integrated Site Model (ISM) (Figure l), which has been developed to provide a consistent volumetric portrayal of the rock layers, rock properties, and mineralogy of the Yucca Mountain site. The ISM consists of three components: (1) Geologic Framework Model (GFM); (2) Rock Properties Model (RPM); and (3) Mineralogic Model (MM). The ISM merges the detailed project stratigraphy into model stratigraphic units that are most useful for the primary downstream models and

  17. Predicting coexistence of plants subject to a tolerance-competition trade-off.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haegeman, Bart; Sari, Tewfik; Etienne, Rampal S

    2014-06-01

    Ecological trade-offs between species are often invoked to explain species coexistence in ecological communities. However, few mathematical models have been proposed for which coexistence conditions can be characterized explicitly in terms of a trade-off. Here we present a model of a plant community which allows such a characterization. In the model plant species compete for sites where each site has a fixed stress condition. Species differ both in stress tolerance and competitive ability. Stress tolerance is quantified as the fraction of sites with stress conditions low enough to allow establishment. Competitive ability is quantified as the propensity to win the competition for empty sites. We derive the deterministic, discrete-time dynamical system for the species abundances. We prove the conditions under which plant species can coexist in a stable equilibrium. We show that the coexistence conditions can be characterized graphically, clearly illustrating the trade-off between stress tolerance and competitive ability. We compare our model with a recently proposed, continuous-time dynamical system for a tolerance-fecundity trade-off in plant communities, and we show that this model is a special case of the continuous-time version of our model.

  18. Exploration of tradeoffs in intensity-modulated radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craft, David; Halabi, Tarek; Bortfeld, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to calculate Pareto surfaces in multi-criteria radiation treatment planning and to analyse the dependency of the Pareto surfaces on the objective functions used for the volumes of interest. We develop a linear approach that allows us to calculate truly Pareto optimal treatment plans, and we apply it to explore the tradeoff between tumour dose homogeneity and critical structure sparing. We show that for two phantom and two clinical cases, a smooth (as opposed to kinked) Pareto tradeoff curve exists. We find that in the paraspinal cases the Pareto surface is invariant to the response function used on the spinal cord: whether the mean cord dose or the maximum cord dose is used, the Pareto plan database is similar. This is not true for the lung studies, where the choice of objective function on the healthy lung tissue influences the resulting Pareto surface greatly. We conclude that in the special case when the tumour wraps around the organ at risk, e.g. prostate cases and paraspinal cases, the Pareto surface will be largely invariant to the objective function used to model the organ at risk

  19. Convection shapes the trade-off between antibiotic efficacy and the selection for resistance in spatial gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gralka, Matti; Fusco, Diana; Martis, Stephen; Hallatschek, Oskar

    2017-08-01

    Since penicillin was discovered about 90 years ago, we have become used to using drugs to eradicate unwanted pathogenic cells. However, using drugs to kill bacteria, viruses or cancer cells has the serious side effect of selecting for mutant types that survive the drug attack. A crucial question therefore is how one could eradicate as many cells as possible for a given acceptable risk of drug resistance evolution. We address this general question in a model of drug resistance evolution in spatial drug gradients, which recent experiments and theories have suggested as key drivers of drug resistance. Importantly, our model takes into account the influence of convection, resulting for instance from blood flow. Using stochastic simulations, we study the fates of individual resistance mutations and quantify the trade-off between the killing of wild-type cells and the rise of resistance mutations: shallow gradients and convection into the antibiotic region promote wild-type death, at the cost of increasing the establishment probability of resistance mutations. We can explain these observed trends by modeling the adaptation process as a branching random walk. Our analysis reveals that the trade-off between death and adaptation depends on the relative length scales of the spatial drug gradient and random dispersal, and the strength of convection. Our results show that convection can have a momentous effect on the rate of establishment of new mutations, and may heavily impact the efficiency of antibiotic treatment.

  20. Nuclear propulsion tradeoffs for manned Mars missions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walton, L.A.; Malloy, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    A conjunction class split/sprint manned Mars exploration mission was studied to evaluate tradeoffs in performance characteristics of nuclear thermal rockets. A Particle Bed Reactor-based nuclear thermal rocket was found to offer a 38% to 52% total mass savings compared with a NERVA-based nuclear thermal rocket for this mission. This advantage is primarily due to the higher thrust-to-weight ratio of the Particle Bed Reactor nuclear rocket. The mission is enabled by nuclear thermal rockets. It cannot be performed practically using chemical propulsion

  1. Financing Investment: The Cost Trade-Off

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirth, Stefan; Flor, Christian Riis

    Intuition suggests that corporate investment should be decreasing in financing constraints. We show that even when financing is obtained using a standard debt contract and there is symmetric information between the firm and outside investors, the relation is actually U-shaped. We thus provide a new...... theoretical explanation for the recent empirical findings of Cleary et al. (2007). We split up the endogenously implied financing costs and propose a trade-off between expected liquidation costs and second-best investment costs. For rather unconstrained firms, the risk of costly liquidation dominates the cost...

  2. Critical disease windows shaped by stress exposure alter allocation trade-offs between development and immunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschman, Lucas J; Crespi, Erica J; Warne, Robin W

    2018-01-01

    Ubiquitous environmental stressors are often thought to alter animal susceptibility to pathogens and contribute to disease emergence. However, duration of exposure to a stressor is likely critical, because while chronic stress is often immunosuppressive, acute stress can temporarily enhance immune function. Furthermore, host susceptibility to stress and disease often varies with ontogeny; increasing during critical developmental windows. How the duration and timing of exposure to stressors interact to shape critical windows and influence disease processes is not well tested. We used ranavirus and larval amphibians as a model system to investigate how physiological stress and pathogenic infection shape development and disease dynamics in vertebrates. Based on a resource allocation model, we designed experiments to test how exposure to stressors may induce resource trade-offs that shape critical windows and disease processes because the neuroendocrine stress axis coordinates developmental remodelling, immune function and energy allocation in larval amphibians. We used wood frog larvae (Lithobates sylvaticus) to investigate how chronic and acute exposure to corticosterone, the dominant amphibian glucocorticoid hormone, mediates development and immune function via splenocyte immunohistochemistry analysis in association with ranavirus infection. Corticosterone treatments affected immune function, as both chronic and acute exposure suppressed splenocyte proliferation, although viral replication rate increased only in the chronic corticosterone treatment. Time to metamorphosis and survival depended on both corticosterone treatment and infection status. In the control and chronic corticosterone treatments, ranavirus infection decreased survival and delayed metamorphosis, although chronic corticosterone exposure accelerated rate of metamorphosis in uninfected larvae. Acute corticosterone exposure accelerated metamorphosis increased survival in infected larvae. Interactions

  3. Arc modeling for welding analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glickstein, S.S.

    1978-04-01

    A one-dimensional model of the welding arc that considers heat generation by the Joule effect and heat losses by radiation and conduction has been used to study the effects of various gases and gas mixtures currently employed for welding applications. Minor additions of low ionization potential impurities to these gases are shown to significantly perturb the electrical properties of the parent gas causing gross changes in the radial temperature distribution of the arc discharge. Such changes are reflected in the current density distribution and ultimately in the input energy distribution to the weldment. The result is observed as a variation in weld penetration. Recently published experiments and analyses of welding arcs are also evaluated and shown to contain erroneous data and results. Contrary to previous beliefs, the inclusion of a radiation loss term in the basic energy balance equation is important and cannot be considered as negligible in an argon arc at temperatures as low as 10,000 0 K. The one-dimensional analysis of the welding arc as well as the evaluation of these earlier published reports helps to explain the effects of various gases used for welding, improves our understanding of the physics of the welding arc, and provides a stepping stone for a more elaborate model which can be applied to help optimize welding parameters

  4. Metabolic Trade-offs in Yeast are Caused by F1F0-ATP synthase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, Avlant; Nielsen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    of intermediary metabolism and consequently metabolic trade-offs may take place. One such trade-off, aerobic fermentation, occurs in both yeast (the Crabtree effect) and cancer cells (the Warburg effect) and has been a scientific challenge for decades. Here we show, using flux balance analysis combined...... with in vitro measured enzyme specific activities, that fermentation is more catalytically efficient than respiration, i.e. it produces more ATP per protein mass. And that the switch to fermentation at high growth rates therefore is a consequence of a high ATP production rate, provided by a limited pool...

  5. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  6. Boldness predicts an individual's position along an exploration-exploitation foraging trade-off.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Samantha C; Pinaud, David; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2017-09-01

    Individuals do not have complete information about the environment and therefore they face a trade-off between gathering information (exploration) and gathering resources (exploitation). Studies have shown individual differences in components of this trade-off but how stable these strategies are in a population and the intrinsic drivers of these differences is not well understood. Top marine predators are expected to experience a particularly strong trade-off as many species have large foraging ranges and their prey often have a patchy distribution. This environment leads these species to exhibit pronounced exploration and exploitation phases but differences between individuals are poorly resolved. Personality differences are known to be important in foraging behaviour but also in the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. Here we test whether personality predicts an individual exploration-exploitation strategy using wide ranging wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) as a model system. Using GPS tracking data from 276 wandering albatrosses, we extract foraging parameters indicative of exploration (searching) and exploitation (foraging) and show that foraging effort, time in patch and size of patch are strongly correlated, demonstrating these are indicative of an exploration-exploitation (EE) strategy. Furthermore, we show these are consistent within individuals and appear stable in the population, with no reproductive advantage. The searching and foraging behaviour of bolder birds placed them towards the exploration end of the trade-off, whereas shy birds showed greater exploitation. This result provides a mechanism through which individual foraging strategies may emerge. Age and sex affected components of the trade-off, but not the trade-off itself, suggesting these factors may drive behavioural compensation to maintain resource acquisition and this was supported by the evidence that there were no fitness consequence of any EE trait nor the trade-off

  7. Optimizing time and resource allocation trade-offs for investment into morphological and behavioral defense

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Pfeiffer, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    pronounced at intermediate environmental conditions. Optimizing single traits generally leads to a more pronounced response of the defense traits, which implies that studying single traits leads to an overestimation of their response to predation. Behavioral defense and morphological defense compensate......Prey organisms are confronted with time and resource allocation trade-offs. Time allocation trade-offs partition time, for example, between foraging effort to acquire resources and behavioral defense. Resource allocation trade-offs partition the acquired resources between multiple traits...... for and augment each other depending on predator densities and the effectiveness of the defense mechanisms. In the presence of time constraints, the model shows peak investment into morphological and behavioral defense at intermediate resource levels....

  8. Tradeoffs in process strategy games with application in the WDM reconfiguration problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cohen, Nathann; Coudert, David; Mazauric, Dorian

    2011-01-01

    We consider a variant of the graph searching games that models the routing reconfiguration problem in WDM networks. In the digraph processing game, a team of agents aims at processing, or clearing, the vertices of a digraph D. We are interested in two different measures: (1) the total number...... tradeoffs may happen even for a basic class of digraphs. On the other hand, we exhibit classes of graphs for which good tradeoffs can be achieved. We finally detail the relationship between this game and the routing reconfiguration problem. In particular, we prove that any instance of the processing game, i...

  9. Universal Trade-Off between Power, Efficiency, and Constancy in Steady-State Heat Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietzonka, Patrick; Seifert, Udo

    2018-05-01

    Heat engines should ideally have large power output, operate close to Carnot efficiency and show constancy, i.e., exhibit only small fluctuations in this output. For steady-state heat engines, driven by a constant temperature difference between the two heat baths, we prove that out of these three requirements only two are compatible. Constancy enters quantitatively the conventional trade-off between power and efficiency. Thus, we rationalize and unify recent suggestions for overcoming this simple trade-off. Our universal bound is illustrated for a paradigmatic model of a quantum dot solar cell and for a Brownian gyrator delivering mechanical work against an external force.

  10. Land management influences trade-offs and the total supply of ecosystem services in alpine grassland in Tibet, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Junxi; Zhao, Yan; Yu, Chengqun; Luo, Liming; Pan, Ying

    2017-05-15

    Developing sustainable use patterns for alpine grassland in Tibet is the primary challenge related to conserving these vulnerable ecosystems of the 'world's third pole' and guaranteeing the well-being of local inhabitants. This challenge requires researchers to think beyond the methods of most current studies that are limited to a single aspect of conservation or productivity, and focus on balancing various needs. An analysis of trade-offs involving ecosystem services provides a framework that can be used to quantify the type of balancing needed. In this study, we measured variations in four types of ecosystem services under five types of grassland management including grazing exclusion, sowing, combined plowing and grazing exclusion, combined plowing and sowing, and natural grassland, from 2013 to 2015. In addition, we accessed the existence and changing patterns of ecosystem service trade-offs using Spearman coefficients and a trade-off index. The results revealed the existence of trade-offs among provisioning and regulating services. Plowing and sowing could convert the trade-off relationships into synergies immediately. Grazing exclusion reduced the level of trade-offs gradually over time. Thus, the combined plowing and sowing treatment promoted the total supply of multiple ecosystem services when compared with natural grassland. We argue that the variations in dry matter allocation to above- and belowground serve as one cause of the variation in trade-off relationships. Another cause for variation in trade-offs is the varied species competition between selection effects and niche complementarity. Our study provides empirical evidence that the effects of trade-offs among ecosystem services could be reduced and even converted into synergies by optimizing management techniques. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Wideband vs. Multiband Trade-offs for a Scalable Multifunction RF system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizing, A.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a concept for a scalable multifunction RF (SMRF) system that allows the RF functionality (radar, electronic warfare and communications) to be easily extended and the RF performance to be scaled to the requirements of different missions and platforms. A trade-off analysis is

  12. Laboratory evolution reveals regulatory and metabolic trade-offs of glycerol utilization in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strucko, Tomas; Zirngibl, Katharina; Pereira, Filipa

    2018-01-01

    osmotolerance. In the other lineages, we find that only three mutations cause the improved phenotype. One of these contributes counter-intuitively by decoupling the TCA cycle from oxidative phosphorylation, and thereby hampers ethanol utilization. Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics analysis of the re...... pathway can remain unexploited due to fitness trade-offs in other, ecologically important, traits....

  13. Digital Technology in Teaching International Business: Is a Tradeoff between Richness and Reach Required?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wymbs, Cliff; Kijne, Hugo

    2003-01-01

    This analysis extends the traditional marketing tradeoffs between richness (depth of knowledge) and reach (geographic area coverage) to the emerging technology-mediated education industry, and then specifically evaluates their effect on the teaching of international business. It asserts that interactive learning, particularly as it applies to team…

  14. A tradeoff between the losses caused by computer viruses and the risk of the manpower shortage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bi, Jichao; Yang, L.; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan

    2018-01-01

    This article addresses the tradeoff between the losses caused by a new virus and the size of the team for developing an antivirus against the virus. First, an individual-level virus spreading model is proposed to capture the spreading process of the virus before the appearance of its natural

  15. Publish or patent: bibliometric evidence for empirical trade-offs in national funding strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shelton, R.D.; Leydesdorff, L.

    2012-01-01

    Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national research and development (R&D). Government funding and spending in the higher education sector encourage publications as a long-term research benefit. Conversely, other components such as industrial funding and

  16. Economic opportunities and trade-offs in collaborative forest landscape restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Kevin C. Vogler; Michelle A. Day; John D. Bailey

    2017-01-01

    We modeled forest restoration scenarios to examine socioeconomic and ecological trade-offs associated with alternative prioritization scenarios. The study examined four US national forests designated as priorities for investments to restore fire resiliency and generate economic opportunities to support local industry. We were particularly interested in economic trade-...

  17. The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Hanley, Torrance C

    2013-01-01

    The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD) body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a 'rate-size' trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis) across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

  18. The rate-size trade-off structures intraspecific variation in Daphnia ambigua life history parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available The identification of trade-offs is necessary for understanding the evolution and maintenance of diversity. Here we employ the supply-demand (SD body size optimization model to predict a trade-off between asymptotic body size and growth rate. We use the SD model to quantitatively predict the slope of the relationship between asymptotic body size and growth rate under high and low food regimes and then test the predictions against observations for Daphnia ambigua. Close quantitative agreement between observed and predicted slopes at both food levels lends support to the model and confirms that a 'rate-size' trade-off structures life history variation in this population. In contrast to classic life history expectations, growth and reproduction were positively correlated after controlling for the rate-size trade-off. We included 12 Daphnia clones in our study, but clone identity explained only some of the variation in life history traits. We also tested the hypothesis that growth rate would be positively related to intergenic spacer length (i.e. the growth rate hypothesis across clones, but we found that clones with intermediate intergenic spacer lengths had larger asymptotic sizes and slower growth rates. Our results strongly support a resource-based optimization of body size following the SD model. Furthermore, because some resource allocation decisions necessarily precede others, understanding interdependent life history traits may require a more nested approach.

  19. Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Klein, David; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, Miodrag

    2018-02-01

    Large-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 °C transformation pathways. However, large-scale bioenergy production might have negative sustainability implications and thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out a multi-criteria sustainability assessment of large-scale bioenergy crop production throughout the 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using a global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that large-scale bioenergy production without complementary measures results in negative effects on the following sustainability indicators: deforestation, CO2 emissions from land-use change, nitrogen losses, unsustainable water withdrawals and food prices. One of our main findings is that single-sector environmental protection measures next to large-scale bioenergy production are prone to involve trade-offs among these sustainability indicators—at least in the absence of more efficient land or water resource use. For instance, if bioenergy production is accompanied by forest protection, deforestation and associated emissions (SDGs 13 and 15) decline substantially whereas food prices (SDG 2) increase. However, our study also shows that this trade-off strongly depends on the development of future food demand. In contrast to environmental protection measures, we find that agricultural intensification lowers some side-effects of bioenergy production substantially (SDGs 13 and 15) without generating new trade-offs—at least among the sustainability indicators considered here. Moreover, our results indicate that a combination of forest and water protection schemes, improved fertilization efficiency, and agricultural intensification would reduce the side-effects of bioenergy production most comprehensively. However, although our study includes more sustainability indicators than previous studies on bioenergy side-effects, our study represents only a small subset of all indicators relevant for the

  20. Evaluating the Life Cycle Environmental Benefits and Trade-Offs of Water Reuse Systems for Net-Zero Buildings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasik, Vaclav; Anderson, Naomi E; Collinge, William O; Thiel, Cassandra L; Khanna, Vikas; Wirick, Jason; Piacentini, Richard; Landis, Amy E; Bilec, Melissa M

    2017-02-07

    Aging water infrastructure and increased water scarcity have resulted in higher interest in water reuse and decentralization. Rating systems for high-performance buildings implicitly promote the use of building-scale, decentralized water supply and treatment technologies. It is important to recognize the potential benefits and trade-offs of decentralized and centralized water systems in the context of high-performance buildings. For this reason and to fill a gap in the current literature, we completed a life cycle assessment (LCA) of the decentralized water system of a high-performance, net-zero energy, net-zero water building (NZB) that received multiple green building certifications and compared the results with two modeled buildings (conventional and water efficient) using centralized water systems. We investigated the NZB's impacts over varying lifetimes, conducted a break-even analysis, and included Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. The results show that, although the NZB performs better in most categories than the conventional building, the water efficient building generally outperforms the NZB. The lifetime of the NZB, septic tank aeration, and use of solar energy have been found to be important factors in the NZB's impacts. While these findings are specific to the case study building, location, and treatment technologies, the framework for comparison of water and wastewater impacts of various buildings can be applied during building design to aid decision making. As we design and operate high-performance buildings, the potential trade-offs of advanced decentralized water treatment systems should be considered.

  1. Assessing trade-offs in large marine protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Tammy E; Epstein, Graham; Aguilera, Stacy E; Brooks, Cassandra M; Cox, Michael; Evans, Louisa S; Maxwell, Sara M; Nenadovic, Mateja; Ban, Natalie C

    2018-01-01

    Large marine protected areas (LMPAs) are increasingly being established and have a high profile in marine conservation. LMPAs are expected to achieve multiple objectives, and because of their size are postulated to avoid trade-offs that are common in smaller MPAs. However, evaluations across multiple outcomes are lacking. We used a systematic approach to code several social and ecological outcomes of 12 LMPAs. We found evidence of three types of trade-offs: trade-offs between different ecological resources (supply trade-offs); trade-offs between ecological resource conditions and the well-being of resource users (supply-demand trade-offs); and trade-offs between the well-being outcomes of different resource users (demand trade-offs). We also found several divergent outcomes that were attributed to influences beyond the scope of the LMPA. We suggest that despite their size, trade-offs can develop in LMPAs and should be considered in planning and design. LMPAs may improve their performance across multiple social and ecological objectives if integrated with larger-scale conservation efforts.

  2. Getting a Cohesive Answer from a Common Start: Scalable Multidisciplinary Analysis through Transformation of a System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Bjorn; Chung, Seung H.

    2012-01-01

    One of the challenges of systems engineering is in working multidisciplinary problems in a cohesive manner. When planning analysis of these problems, system engineers must tradeoff time and cost for analysis quality and quantity. The quality is associated with the fidelity of the multidisciplinary models and the quantity is associated with the design space that can be analyzed. The tradeoff is due to the resource intensive process of creating a cohesive multidisciplinary system model and analysis. Furthermore, reuse or extension of the models used in one stage of a product life cycle for another is a major challenge. Recent developments have enabled a much less resource-intensive and more rigorous approach than handwritten translation scripts or codes of multidisciplinary models and their analyses. The key is to work from a core system model defined in a MOF-based language such as SysML and in leveraging the emerging tool ecosystem, such as Query-View- Transform (QVT), from the OMG community. SysML was designed to model multidisciplinary systems and analyses. The QVT standard was designed to transform SysML models. The Europa Hability Mission (EHM) team has begun to exploit these capabilities. In one case, a Matlab/Simulink model is generated on the fly from a system description for power analysis written in SysML. In a more general case, a symbolic mathematical framework (supported by Wolfram Mathematica) is coordinated by data objects transformed from the system model, enabling extremely flexible and powerful tradespace exploration and analytical investigations of expected system performance.

  3. Unexpected water impacts of energy-saving measures in the iron and steel sector: Tradeoffs or synergies?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Can; Zheng, Xinzhu; Cai, Wenjia; Gao, Xue; Berrill, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Associated water impacts of individual energy conservation measures were evaluated. •Water-energy tradeoffs exist in the production process adjustment of iron sector. •Considering the water impacts can change the priority ranks of technology choice. -- Abstract: Moving towards integrated governance of water and energy requires balancing tradeoffs and taking advantage of synergies through specific technology choice. However, the water-energy conservation relationships of individual conservation measures in industries other than the water and energy sectors have not been investigated in detail. This study develops a hybrid model to estimate the associated water impacts of individual energy conservation measures, using China’s iron and steel industry as a case study. The results reveal that water-energy tradeoffs exist in the production process adjustment, which is conventionally promoted as a key energy-saving measure in iron and steel industry. It is found that replacing the Blast Oxygen Furnace (BOF) process with the Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) in 2007 could save 131–156 kg coal equivalent (kgce) (13.2–15.7%) of embodied energy per ton of crude steel (tcs) at the expenses of an additional 2.5–3.9 m 3 /tcs (10.6–16.4%) of water footprint. Nineteen energy efficiency technologies are studied in this research, and most of them are identified as having water-saving synergies except for the Low Temperature Rolling Technology. Taking these water impacts into consideration can update the priority ranks of the technology choices and inform policy decisions. Although this study focuses on China’s iron and steel sector, the methods and analysis can be extended to other countries, sectors, technologies and environmental impacts.

  4. Hypersonic - Model Analysis as a Service

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acretoaie, Vlad; Störrle, Harald

    2014-01-01

    Hypersonic is a Cloud-based tool that proposes a new approach to the deployment of model analysis facilities. It is implemented as a RESTful Web service API o_ering analysis features such as model clone detection. This approach allows the migration of resource intensive analysis algorithms from...

  5. Metabolic enzyme cost explains variable trade-offs between microbial growth rate and yield.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike T Wortel

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Microbes may maximize the number of daughter cells per time or per amount of nutrients consumed. These two strategies correspond, respectively, to the use of enzyme-efficient or substrate-efficient metabolic pathways. In reality, fast growth is often associated with wasteful, yield-inefficient metabolism, and a general thermodynamic trade-off between growth rate and biomass yield has been proposed to explain this. We studied growth rate/yield trade-offs by using a novel modeling framework, Enzyme-Flux Cost Minimization (EFCM and by assuming that the growth rate depends directly on the enzyme investment per rate of biomass production. In a comprehensive mathematical model of core metabolism in E. coli, we screened all elementary flux modes leading to cell synthesis, characterized them by the growth rates and yields they provide, and studied the shape of the resulting rate/yield Pareto front. By varying the model parameters, we found that the rate/yield trade-off is not universal, but depends on metabolic kinetics and environmental conditions. A prominent trade-off emerges under oxygen-limited growth, where yield-inefficient pathways support a 2-to-3 times higher growth rate than yield-efficient pathways. EFCM can be widely used to predict optimal metabolic states and growth rates under varying nutrient levels, perturbations of enzyme parameters, and single or multiple gene knockouts.

  6. Formal Analysis of Domain Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bharadwaj, Ramesh

    2002-01-01

    Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the application of formal methods, in particular, precise formal notations and automatic analysis tools for the creation and analysis of requirements specifications (i.e...

  7. ModelMate - A graphical user interface for model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2011-01-01

    ModelMate is a graphical user interface designed to facilitate use of model-analysis programs with models. This initial version of ModelMate supports one model-analysis program, UCODE_2005, and one model software program, MODFLOW-2005. ModelMate can be used to prepare input files for UCODE_2005, run UCODE_2005, and display analysis results. A link to the GW_Chart graphing program facilitates visual interpretation of results. ModelMate includes capabilities for organizing directories used with the parallel-processing capabilities of UCODE_2005 and for maintaining files in those directories to be identical to a set of files in a master directory. ModelMate can be used on its own or in conjunction with ModelMuse, a graphical user interface for MODFLOW-2005 and PHAST.

  8. Rate-cost tradeoffs in control

    KAUST Repository

    Kostina, Victoria

    2017-02-13

    Consider a distributed control problem with a communication channel connecting the observer of a linear stochastic system to the controller. The goal of the controller is minimize a quadratic cost function. The most basic special case of that cost function is the mean-square deviation of the system state from the desired state. We study the fundamental tradeoff between the communication rate r bits/sec and the limsup of the expected cost b, and show a lower bound on the rate necessary to attain b. The bound applies as long as the system noise has a probability density function. If target cost b is not too large, that bound can be closely approached by a simple lattice quantization scheme that only quantizes the innovation, that is, the difference between the controller\\'s belief about the current state and the true state.

  9. Tradeoffs between image quality and dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seibert, J.A.

    2004-01-01

    Image quality takes on different perspectives and meanings when associated with the concept of as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA), which is chiefly focused on radiation dose delivered as a result of a medical imaging procedure. ALARA is important because of the increased radiosensitivity of children to ionizing radiation and the desire to keep the radiation dose low. By the same token, however, image quality is also important because of the need to provide the necessary information in a radiograph in order to make an accurate diagnosis. Thus, there are tradeoffs to be considered between image quality and radiation dose, which is the main topic of this article. ALARA does not necessarily mean the lowest radiation dose, nor, when implemented, does it result in the least desirable radiographic images. With the recent widespread implementation of digital radiographic detectors and displays, a new level of flexibility and complexity confronts the technologist, physicist, and radiologist in optimizing the pediatric radiography exam. This is due to the separation of the acquisition, display, and archiving events that were previously combined by the screen-film detector, which allows for compensation for under- and overexposures, image processing, and on-line image manipulation. As explained in the article, different concepts must be introduced for a better understanding of the tradeoffs encountered when dealing with digital radiography and ALARA. In addition, there are many instances during the image acquisition/display/interpretation process in which image quality and associated dose can be compromised. This requires continuous diligence to quality control and feedback mechanisms to verify that the goals of image quality, dose and ALARA are achieved. (orig.)

  10. Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Scherbov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A complementary approach is to raise the average labor force participation rate. These policies are generally more politically palatable because they often remove barriers, allowing people who would like to work to do so. Objective: To conceptualize and estimate the trade-off between pension age and labor force participation rate policies. Methods: We project the populations of European countries and apply different levels of labor force participation rates to the projected populations. We introduce the notion of a relative burden, which is the ratio of the fraction of the income of people in the labor market in 2050 that they transfer to adults out of the labor market to the same fraction in 2009. We use this indicator to investigate the trade-offs between changes in normal pension ages and the general level of labor force participation rates. Results: We show that, in most European countries, a difference in policies that results in an increase in average labor force participation rates by an additional one to two percentage points by 2050 can substitute for a one-year increase in the normal pension age. This is important because, in many European countries, without additional increases in labor force participation rates, normal pension ages would have to be raised well above 68 by 2050 to keep the burden on those working manageable. Conclusions: Because of anticipated increases in life expectancy and health at older ages as well as because of financial necessity, some mix of increases in pension ages and in labor force participation rates will be needed. Pension age changes by themselves will not be sufficient.

  11. Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - assessing trade-offs for reservoir operation and irrigation investment in Kenya's Tana basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

    2014-01-01

    Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing on allocation is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly we seek to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of new proposed rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To identify the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for objectives covering provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services which underpin tourism and local livelihoods. Visual analytic plots allow decision makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets by understanding their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against disturbance of the flow regime which supports ecosystem services. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to be Pareto-optimal, but at high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of water-energy-food "nexus" challenges.

  12. Integrated Adaptive Scenarios for Ariculture: Synergies and Tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Liu, M.; Kruger, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    A wide variety of factors can drive adaptation of the agricultural production sector in response to climate change. Warming and increased growing season length can lead to adoption of newer plant varieties as well as increases in double cropping systems. Changes in expectations of drought frequency or economic factors could lead to adoption of new technology (such as irrigation technology or water trading systems) or crop choices with a view of reducing farm-level risk, and these choices can result in unintended system wide effects. These are all examples of producer adaptation decisions made with a long-term (multiple decades) view. In addition, producers respond to short-term (current year) shocks - such as drought events - through management strategies that include deficit irrigation, fallowing, nutrient management, and engaging in water trading. The effects of these short- and long-term decisions are not independent, and can drive or be driven by the other. For example, investment in new irrigation systems (long-term) can be driven by expectations of short-term crop productivity losses in drought years. Similarly, the capacity to manage for short-term shocks will depend on crop type and variety as well as adopted irrigation technologies. Our overarching objective is to understand the synergies and tradeoffs that exist when combining three potential long-term adaptation strategies and two short-term adaptation strategies, with a view of understanding the synergies and tradeoffs. We apply the integrated crop-hydrology modeling framework VIC-CropSyst, along with the water management module Yakima RiverWare to address these questions over our test area, the Yakima River basin. We consider adoption of a) more efficient irrigation technologies, slower growing crop varieties, and increased prevalence of double cropping systems as long-term adaptation strategies; and b) fallowing and deficit irrigation as short-term responses to droughts. We evaluate the individual and

  13. On the Verge: Costs and Tradeoffs Facing Community College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, Debbie; Szabo-Kubitz, Laura

    2016-01-01

    "On the Verge: Costs and Tradeoffs Facing Community College Students" documents California community college students' struggles to cover college expenses beyond tuition, their experiences with financial aid, and the troubling tradeoffs they face when available resources do not stretch far enough. Consistent with a growing body of…

  14. A comparison of carbon allocation schemes: On the equity-efficiency tradeoff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Xunzhang; Teng, Fei; Wang, Gehua

    2014-01-01

    In the long-term stabilization targets of greenhouse gases concentrations, various carbon emission rights allocation schemes have been proposed. To compare and evaluate them, the most essential is the equity-efficiency tradeoff. This paper measures the equity and the efficiency in the global rather than the narrower national perspective. Specifically, the equity of the first allocation is quantified by the carbon Gini coefficient defined by per capita cumulative emission, and the economic efficiency to accomplish obligations is described with the discounted global abatement costs. Under 20 key allocation schemes, the numerical comparison on the equity-efficiency tradeoff side is carried out through the Equitable Access to Sustainable Development model. Our studies indicate that the equity and the efficiency of future emission space allocation approximately show a three-stage relationship. - Highlights: • The equity-efficiency tradeoff among 20 key allocation schemes is carried out. • Both the equity and the efficiency are measured in the global perspective. • The Equitable Access to Sustainable Development model is adopted as the study tool. • A practical trade framework is indispensable to efficiently address climate change. • The equity and the efficiency generally show a three-stage tradeoff relationship

  15. Conceptualising and managing trade-offs in sustainability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison-Saunders, Angus; Pope, Jenny

    2013-01-01

    One of the defining characteristics of sustainability assessment as a form of impact assessment is that it provides a forum for the explicit consideration of the trade-offs that are inherent in complex decision-making processes. Few sustainability assessments have achieved this goal though, and none has considered trade-offs in a holistic fashion throughout the process. Recent contributions such as the Gibson trade-off rules have significantly progressed thinking in this area by suggesting appropriate acceptability criteria for evaluating substantive trade-offs arising from proposed development, as well as process rules for how evaluations of acceptability should occur. However, there has been negligible uptake of these rules in practice. Overall, we argue that there is inadequate consideration of trade-offs, both process and substantive, throughout the sustainability assessment process, and insufficient considerations of how process decisions and compromises influence substantive outcomes. This paper presents a framework for understanding and managing both process and substantive trade-offs within each step of a typical sustainability assessment process. The framework draws together previously published literature and offers case studies that illustrate aspects of the practical application of the framework. The framing and design of sustainability assessment are vitally important, as process compromises or trade-offs can have substantive consequences in terms of sustainability outcomes delivered, with the choice of alternatives considered being a particularly significant determinant of substantive outcomes. The demarcation of acceptable from unacceptable impacts is a key aspect of managing trade-offs. Offsets can be considered as a form of trade-off within a category of sustainability that are utilised to enhance preferred alternatives once conditions of impact acceptability have been met. In this way they may enable net gains to be delivered; another imperative

  16. Conceptualising and managing trade-offs in sustainability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison-Saunders, Angus, E-mail: A.Morrison-Saunders@murdoch.edu.au [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North West University (South Africa); School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University (Australia); Pope, Jenny [School of Geo and Spatial Sciences, North West University (South Africa); Integral Sustainability (Australia); Curtin University (Australia)

    2013-01-15

    One of the defining characteristics of sustainability assessment as a form of impact assessment is that it provides a forum for the explicit consideration of the trade-offs that are inherent in complex decision-making processes. Few sustainability assessments have achieved this goal though, and none has considered trade-offs in a holistic fashion throughout the process. Recent contributions such as the Gibson trade-off rules have significantly progressed thinking in this area by suggesting appropriate acceptability criteria for evaluating substantive trade-offs arising from proposed development, as well as process rules for how evaluations of acceptability should occur. However, there has been negligible uptake of these rules in practice. Overall, we argue that there is inadequate consideration of trade-offs, both process and substantive, throughout the sustainability assessment process, and insufficient considerations of how process decisions and compromises influence substantive outcomes. This paper presents a framework for understanding and managing both process and substantive trade-offs within each step of a typical sustainability assessment process. The framework draws together previously published literature and offers case studies that illustrate aspects of the practical application of the framework. The framing and design of sustainability assessment are vitally important, as process compromises or trade-offs can have substantive consequences in terms of sustainability outcomes delivered, with the choice of alternatives considered being a particularly significant determinant of substantive outcomes. The demarcation of acceptable from unacceptable impacts is a key aspect of managing trade-offs. Offsets can be considered as a form of trade-off within a category of sustainability that are utilised to enhance preferred alternatives once conditions of impact acceptability have been met. In this way they may enable net gains to be delivered; another imperative

  17. Integrating ecosystem-service tradeoffs into land-use decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Joshua H; Caldarone, Giorgio; Duarte, Thomas Kaeo; Ennaanay, Driss; Hannahs, Neil; Mendoza, Guillermo; Polasky, Stephen; Wolny, Stacie; Daily, Gretchen C

    2012-05-08

    Recent high-profile efforts have called for integrating ecosystem-service values into important societal decisions, but there are few demonstrations of this approach in practice. We quantified ecosystem-service values to help the largest private landowner in Hawaii, Kamehameha Schools, design a land-use development plan that balances multiple private and public values on its North Shore land holdings (Island of O'ahu) of ∼10,600 ha. We used the InVEST software tool to evaluate the environmental and financial implications of seven planning scenarios encompassing contrasting land-use combinations including biofuel feedstocks, food crops, forestry, livestock, and residential development. All scenarios had positive financial return relative to the status quo of negative return. However, tradeoffs existed between carbon storage and water quality as well as between environmental improvement and financial return. Based on this analysis and community input, Kamehameha Schools is implementing a plan to support diversified agriculture and forestry. This plan generates a positive financial return ($10.9 million) and improved carbon storage (0.5% increase relative to status quo) with negative relative effects on water quality (15.4% increase in potential nitrogen export relative to status quo). The effects on water quality could be mitigated partially (reduced to a 4.9% increase in potential nitrogen export) by establishing vegetation buffers on agricultural fields. This plan contributes to policy goals for climate change mitigation, food security, and diversifying rural economic opportunities. More broadly, our approach illustrates how information can help guide local land-use decisions that involve tradeoffs between private and public interests.

  18. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  19. Development and application of a model for the analysis of trades between space launch system operations and acquisition costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nix, Michael B.

    2005-12-01

    Early design decisions in the development of space launch systems determine the costs to acquire and operate launch systems. Some sources indicate that as much as 90% of life cycle costs are fixed by the end of the critical design review phase. System characteristics determined by these early decisions are major factors in the acquisition cost of flight hardware elements and facilities and influence operations costs through the amount of maintenance and support labor required to sustain system function. Operations costs are also dependent on post-development management decisions regarding how much labor will be deployed to meet requirements of market demand and ownership profit. The ability to perform early trade-offs between these costs is vital to the development of systems that have the necessary capacity to provide service and are profitable to operate. An Excel-based prototype model was developed for making early analyses of trade-offs between the costs to operate a space launch system and to acquire the necessary assets to meet a given set of operational requirements. The model, integrating input from existing models and adding missing capability, allows the user to make such trade-offs across a range of operations concepts (required flight rates, staffing levels, shifts per workday, workdays per week and per year, unreliability, wearout and depot maintenance) and the number, type and capability of assets (flight hardware elements, processing and supporting facilities and infrastructure). The costs and capabilities of hypothetical launch systems can be modeled as a function of interrelated turnaround times and labor resource levels, and asset loss and retirement. The number of flight components and facilities required can be calculated and the operations and acquisition costs compared for a specified scenario. Findings, based on the analysis of a hypothetical two stage to orbit, reusable, unmanned launch system, indicate that the model is suitable for the

  20. Quantifying uncertainty and trade-offs in resilience assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig R. Allen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Several frameworks have been developed to assess the resilience of social-ecological systems, but most require substantial data inputs, time, and technical expertise. Stakeholders and practitioners often lack the resources for such intensive efforts. Furthermore, most end with problem framing and fail to explicitly address trade-offs and uncertainty. To remedy this gap, we developed a rapid survey assessment that compares the relative resilience of social-ecological systems with respect to a number of resilience properties. This approach generates large amounts of information relative to stakeholder inputs. We targeted four stakeholder categories: government (policy, regulation, management, end users (farmers, ranchers, landowners, industry, agency/public science (research, university, extension, and NGOs (environmental, citizen, social justice in four North American watersheds, to assess social-ecological resilience through surveys. Conceptually, social-ecological systems are comprised of components ranging from strictly human to strictly ecological, but that relate directly or indirectly to one another. They have soft boundaries and several important dimensions or axes that together describe the nature of social-ecological interactions, e.g., variability, diversity, modularity, slow variables, feedbacks, capital, innovation, redundancy, and ecosystem services. There is no absolute measure of resilience, so our design takes advantage of cross-watershed comparisons and therefore focuses on relative resilience. Our approach quantifies and compares the relative resilience across watershed systems and potential trade-offs among different aspects of the social-ecological system, e.g., between social, economic, and ecological contributions. This approach permits explicit assessment of several types of uncertainty (e.g., self-assigned uncertainty for stakeholders; uncertainty across respondents, watersheds, and subsystems, and subjectivity in

  1. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Karen L; Veile, Amanda; Otárola-Castillo, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1) as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2) competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3) however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  2. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L Kramer

    Full Text Available Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger siblings can have on young children's growth. Additionally, inconsistent results might reflect that the biological significance associated with different growth trajectories is poorly understood. This paper addresses these concerns by tracking children's monthly gains in height and weight from weaning to age five in a high fertility Maya community. We predict that: 1 as an aggregate measure family size will not have a major impact on child growth during the post weaning period; 2 competition from young siblings will negatively impact child growth during the post weaning period; 3 however because of their economic value, older siblings will have a negligible effect on young children's growth. Accounting for parental condition, we use linear mixed models to evaluate the effects that family size, younger and older siblings have on children's growth. Congruent with our expectations, it is younger siblings who have the most detrimental effect on children's growth. While we find statistical evidence of a quantity/quality tradeoff effect, the biological significance of these results is negligible in early childhood. Our findings help to resolve why quantity/quality studies have had inconsistent results by showing that sibling competition varies with sibling age composition, not just family size, and that biological significance is distinct from statistical significance.

  3. Compartmental modeling alternatives for kinetic analysis of pet neurotransmitter receptor studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koeppe, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    With the increased interest in studying neurotransmitter and receptor function in vivo, imaging procedures using positron emission tomography have presented new challenges for kinetic modeling and analysis of data. The in vivo behavior of radiolabeled markers for examining these neurotransmitter systems can be quite complex and, therefore, the implementation of compartmental models for data analysis is similarly complex. Often, the variability in the estimates of model parameters representing neurotransmitter or receptor densities, association and dissociation rates, or rates of incorporation or turnover does not permit reliable interpretation of the data. When less complex analyses are used, these model parameters may be biased and thus also do not yield the information being sought. Examination of trade-offs between uncertainty and bias in the parameters of interest may be used to select a compartmental model configuration with an appropriate level of complexity. Modeling alternatives will be discussed for radioligands with varying kinetic properties, such as those that bind reversibly and rapidly and others that bind nearly irreversibly. Specific problems, such as those occurring when a radioligand is open-quotes flow limitedclose quotes also will be discussed

  4. Programming of a refinery from the perspective of the decision makers: trade-offs analysis for corporate and technical guidelines; A programacao de uma refinaria sob a otica do decisor: uma analise dos trade-offs diante das orientacoes tecnicas e corporativas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spiegel, Thais; Caulliraux, Heitor Mansur; Proenca, Adriano [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    Refineries usually gather a set of activities that shape how complex and dynamic it is. Adding to the complexity of the refining process, there is also a great freedom in the refinery operations, multiple arrangements possible to convert certain oil in derivatives. In this context, this article focuses on decision-making processes that lead refineries of an integrated oil company in their day to day. As decision-making, the text refers to a process that always brings a kind of conflict resolution, in which contradictory goals have to be negotiated and reconciled. The object of analysis is inserted in hierarchical decision-making processes, ie a process of disintegration, which begins with a comprehensive assessment, and then divides the decision in elements smaller and more defined, so that they are interdependent. The output at an aggregate level shall be the input in the next detailed level. In each level of the hierarchical, decision-making is the result of a problem, presented in a given context to a decision maker. Decision maker will be the responsible for the direction of the refinery production to which it is allocated. The programmer of each refinery is general guidelines that should be considered, albeit non-explicit or non-configurable, in some cases these take the form of technical criteria and in other situations derived from the business. From these, this article presents a critical and analytical in the face of dilemmas that emerge in front of decision makers search for converging a production schedule that meets both the criteria set. (author)

  5. Model Checking as Static Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Fuyuan

    fairness problems can be encoded into ALFP as well. To deal with multi-valued model checking problems, we have proposed multivalued ALFP. A Moore Family result for multi-valued ALFP is also established, which ensures the existence and uniqueness of the least model. When the truth values in multi-valued...... of states satisfying a CTL formula can be characterized as the least model of ALFP clauses specifying this CTL formula. The existence of the least model of ALFP clauses is ensured by the Moore Family property of ALFP. Then, we take fairness assumptions in CTL into consideration and have shown that CTL...... ALFP constitute a nite distributive complete lattice, multi-valued ALFP can be reduced to two-valued ALFP. This result enables to implement a solver for multi-valued ALFP by reusing existing solvers for twovalued ALFP. Our ALFP-based technique developed for the two-valued CTL naturally generalizes...

  6. Characterizing Coastal Ecosystem Service Trade-offs with Future Urban Development in a Tropical City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Daniel R; Friess, Daniel A

    2017-11-01

    With rapid urbanization in the coastal zone and increasing habitat losses, it is imperative to understand how urban development affects coastal biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, it is important to understand how habitat fragments can best be incorporated into broader land use planning and coastal management, in order to maximize the environmental benefits they provide. In this study, we characterized the trade-offs between (a) urban development and individual mangrove environmental indicators (habitat quality and ecosystem services), and (b) between different environmental indicators in the tropical nation of Singapore. A range of biological, biophysical, and cultural indicators, including carbon, charcoal production, support for offshore fisheries, recreation, and habitat quality for a threatened species were quantified using field-based, remote sensing, and expert survey methods. The shape of the trade-off Pareto frontiers was analyzed to assess the sensitivity of environmental indicators for development. When traded off individually with urban development, four out of five environmental indicators were insensitive to development, meaning that relatively minor degradation of the indicator occurred while development was below a certain threshold, although indicator loss accelerated once this threshold was reached. Most of the pairwise relationships between the five environmental indicators were synergistic; only carbon storage and charcoal production, and charcoal production and recreational accessibility showed trade-offs. Trade-off analysis and land use optimization using Pareto frontiers could be a useful decision-support tool for understanding how changes in land use and coastal management will impact the ability of ecosystems to provide environmental benefits.

  7. Characterizing Coastal Ecosystem Service Trade-offs with Future Urban Development in a Tropical City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Daniel R.; Friess, Daniel A.

    2017-11-01

    With rapid urbanization in the coastal zone and increasing habitat losses, it is imperative to understand how urban development affects coastal biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Furthermore, it is important to understand how habitat fragments can best be incorporated into broader land use planning and coastal management, in order to maximize the environmental benefits they provide. In this study, we characterized the trade-offs between (a) urban development and individual mangrove environmental indicators (habitat quality and ecosystem services), and (b) between different environmental indicators in the tropical nation of Singapore. A range of biological, biophysical, and cultural indicators, including carbon, charcoal production, support for offshore fisheries, recreation, and habitat quality for a threatened species were quantified using field-based, remote sensing, and expert survey methods. The shape of the trade-off Pareto frontiers was analyzed to assess the sensitivity of environmental indicators for development. When traded off individually with urban development, four out of five environmental indicators were insensitive to development, meaning that relatively minor degradation of the indicator occurred while development was below a certain threshold, although indicator loss accelerated once this threshold was reached. Most of the pairwise relationships between the five environmental indicators were synergistic; only carbon storage and charcoal production, and charcoal production and recreational accessibility showed trade-offs. Trade-off analysis and land use optimization using Pareto frontiers could be a useful decision-support tool for understanding how changes in land use and coastal management will impact the ability of ecosystems to provide environmental benefits.

  8. Trade-offs in ecosystem services and varying stakeholder preferences: evaluating conflicts, obstacles, and opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth King

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In efforts to increase human well-being while maintaining the natural systems and processes upon which we depend, navigating the trade-offs that can arise between different ecosystem services is a profound challenge. We evaluated a recently developed simple analytic framework for assessing ecosystem service trade-offs, which characterizes such trade-offs in terms of their underlying biophysical constraints as well as divergences in stakeholders' values for the services in question. Through a workshop and subsequent discussions, we identified four different types of challenging situations under which the framework allows important insights to clarify the nature of stakeholder conflicts, obstacles to promoting more sustainable outcomes, and potential enabling factors to promote efficiency and sustainability of ecosystem service yields. We illustrated the framework's analytical steps by applying them to case studies representing three of the challenging situations. We explored the fourth challenging situation conceptually, using published literature for examples. We examined the potential utility and feasibility of using the framework as a participatory tool in resource management and conflict resolution. We concluded that the framework can be instrumental for promoting pluralism and insightful analysis of trade-offs. The insights offered here may be viewed as hypotheses to be tested and refined as additional unforeseen challenges and benefits are revealed as the framework is put into practice.

  9. Environmental justice research shows the importance of social feedbacks in ecosystem service trade-offs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil M. Dawson

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we shine a spotlight on approaches to research ecosystem service trade-offs and critically assess their representation of relevant social dynamics. Although studies linking ecosystem services and human well-being have provided theoretical insights into social and ecological trade-offs, we argue that ecosystem services research has paid insufficient attention to "social feedbacks," people's cognitive and behavioral responses to change. We demonstrate that augmenting ecosystem services research with environmental justice approaches (exploring perceptions of the distribution of costs and benefits, decision making procedures, and recognition of different values and identities can more effectively capture important responses to ecosystem governance. Spatial analysis of land use change, mixed-method assessment of multidimensional well-being, and qualitative environmental justice research were applied in three villages adjacent to Nam Et-Phou Louey National Protected Area in northern Laos. Spatial analysis showed that, from 2006 to 2015, forest clearance for cultivation remained stable within the protected area. Well-being assessment revealed the local population benefited from rapidly increasing incomes, asset ownership, and reduced poverty during that time. In combination, spatial and well-being analyses paint a picture of limited trade-offs, despite growing incentives to exploit protected land and resources through cash crops and high-value forest products. In contrast, results from environmental justice research revealed profound trade-offs between conservation and local practices, and highlight governance deficiencies relating to procedure and recognition. Consequently, formal protected area rules were perceived to be illegitimate by many and actively undermined, for example through negotiated access with alternative authorities. We conclude that although well-being research provides an essential foundation to understand diverse

  10. Life history trade-offs imposed by dragline use in two money spiders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonte, Dries; Verduyn, Lieselot; Braeckman, Bart P

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs among life history traits are central to understanding the limits of adaptations to stress. In animals, virtually all decisions taken during life are expected to have downstream consequences. To what degree rare, but energy-demanding, decisions carry over to individual performance is rarely studied in arthropods. We used spiders as a model system to test how single investments in silk use - for dispersal or predator escape - affect individual performance. Silk produced for safe lines and as threads for ballooning is of the strongest kind and is energetically costly, especially when resources are limited. We induced dragline spinning in two species of money spider at similar quantities to that under natural conditions and tested trade-offs with lifespan and egg sac production under unlimited prey availability and a dietary restriction treatment. We demonstrate strong trade-offs between dragline spinning and survival and fecundity. Survival trade-offs were additive to those imposed by the dietary treatment, but a reduction in eggs produced after silk use was only prevalent under conditions where food was restricted during the spider's life. Because draglines are not recycled after their use for dispersal or predator escape, their spinning incurs substantial fitness costs in dispersal, especially in environments with prey limitation. Rare but energetically costly decisions related to dispersal or predator escape may thus carry over to adult performance and explain phenotypic heterogeneity in natural populations. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  11. Shifts in growth strategies reflect tradeoffs in cellular economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Douwe; van Berlo, Rogier; de Ridder, Dick; Teusink, Bas

    2009-01-01

    The growth rate-dependent regulation of cell size, ribosomal content, and metabolic efficiency follows a common pattern in unicellular organisms: with increasing growth rates, cell size and ribosomal content increase and a shift to energetically inefficient metabolism takes place. The latter two phenomena are also observed in fast growing tumour cells and cell lines. These patterns suggest a fundamental principle of design. In biology such designs can often be understood as the result of the optimization of fitness. Here we show that in basic models of self-replicating systems these patterns are the consequence of maximizing the growth rate. Whereas most models of cellular growth consider a part of physiology, for instance only metabolism, the approach presented here integrates several subsystems to a complete self-replicating system. Such models can yield fundamentally different optimal strategies. In particular, it is shown how the shift in metabolic efficiency originates from a tradeoff between investments in enzyme synthesis and metabolic yields for alternative catabolic pathways. The models elucidate how the optimization of growth by natural selection shapes growth strategies. PMID:19888218

  12. CMS Data Analysis School Model

    CERN Document Server

    Malik, Sudhir; Cavanaugh, R; Bloom, K; Chan, Kai-Feng; D'Hondt, J; Klima, B; Narain, M; Palla, F; Rolandi, G; Schörner-Sadenius, T

    2014-01-01

    To impart hands-on training in physics analysis, CMS experiment initiated the  concept of CMS Data Analysis School (CMSDAS). It was born three years ago at the LPC (LHC Physics Center), Fermilab and is based on earlier workshops held at the LPC and CLEO Experiment. As CMS transitioned from construction to the data taking mode, the nature of earlier training also evolved to include more of analysis tools, software tutorials and physics analysis. This effort epitomized as CMSDAS has proven to be a key for the new and young physicists to jump start and contribute to the physics goals of CMS by looking for new physics with the collision data. With over 400 physicists trained in six CMSDAS around the globe , CMS is trying to  engage the collaboration discovery potential and maximize the physics output. As a bigger goal, CMS is striving to nurture and increase engagement of the myriad talents of CMS, in the development of physics, service, upgrade, education of those new to CMS and the caree...

  13. Adaptive streaming applications : analysis and implementation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhai, Jiali Teddy

    2015-01-01

    This thesis presents a highly automated design framework, called DaedalusRT, and several novel techniques. As the foundation of the DaedalusRT design framework, two types of dataflow Models-of-Computation (MoC) are used, one as timing analysis model and another one as the implementation model. The

  14. Representing Uncertainty on Model Analysis Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Trevor I.

    2016-01-01

    Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model.…

  15. Combustion instability modeling and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santoro, R.J.; Yang, V.; Santavicca, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States); Sheppard, E.J. [Tuskeggee Univ., Tuskegee, AL (United States). Dept. of Aerospace Engineering

    1995-12-31

    It is well known that the two key elements for achieving low emissions and high performance in a gas turbine combustor are to simultaneously establish (1) a lean combustion zone for maintaining low NO{sub x} emissions and (2) rapid mixing for good ignition and flame stability. However, these requirements, when coupled with the short combustor lengths used to limit the residence time for NO formation typical of advanced gas turbine combustors, can lead to problems regarding unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, as well as the occurrence of combustion instabilities. The concurrent development of suitable analytical and numerical models that are validated with experimental studies is important for achieving this objective. A major benefit of the present research will be to provide for the first time an experimentally verified model of emissions and performance of gas turbine combustors. The present study represents a coordinated effort between industry, government and academia to investigate gas turbine combustion dynamics. Specific study areas include development of advanced diagnostics, definition of controlling phenomena, advancement of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities, and assessment of the current status of our ability to apply these tools to practical gas turbine combustors. The present work involves four tasks which address, respectively, (1) the development of a fiber-optic probe for fuel-air ratio measurements, (2) the study of combustion instability using laser-based diagnostics in a high pressure, high temperature flow reactor, (3) the development of analytical and numerical modeling capabilities for describing combustion instability which will be validated against experimental data, and (4) the preparation of a literature survey and establishment of a data base on practical experience with combustion instability.

  16. Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2-enriched climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mankin, J. S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Williams, A. P.; Seager, R.

    2017-12-01

    Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the competing responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2, which includes radiative and plant physiological forcing, as well as their consequences for plant phenology, water use efficiency, and CO2 fertilization. Because Earth system models (ESMs) have increased their sophistication in representing the coupling among biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes at the land surface, projected linkages among ecosystem responses to CO2 and blue water (runoff) can be explored. A detailed analysis of the Western US demonstrates that CO2- and radiatively-induced vegetation growth drives projected decreases in soil moisture and runoff in the NCAR CESM LENS, creating a curious pattern of colocated 'greening' and 'drying.' Here we explore these responses at the global-scale and the consequences of such vegetation-driven drying on blue water availability for people. We present a simple metric that quantifies the tradeoff that occurs between ecosystems and blue water and link their occurrence to changes in daily-scale precipitation extremes, plant functional types, and changes in leaf areas. These results have implications for blue water availability for people and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation-water responses to high CO2.

  17. Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E

    2003-01-01

    Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat

  18. Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bichon, Barron J.; McFarland, John M.; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2011-01-01

    Despite many advances in the field of computational reliability analysis, the efficient estimation of the reliability of a system with multiple failure modes remains a persistent challenge. Various sampling and analytical methods are available, but they typically require accepting a tradeoff between accuracy and computational efficiency. In this work, a surrogate-based approach is presented that simultaneously addresses the issues of accuracy, efficiency, and unimportant failure modes. The method is based on the creation of Gaussian process surrogate models that are required to be locally accurate only in the regions of the component limit states that contribute to system failure. This approach to constructing surrogate models is demonstrated to be both an efficient and accurate method for system-level reliability analysis. - Highlights: → Extends efficient global reliability analysis to systems with multiple failure modes. → Constructs locally accurate Gaussian process models of each response. → Highly efficient and accurate method for assessing system reliability. → Effectiveness is demonstrated on several test problems from the literature.

  19. Representing uncertainty on model analysis plots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor I. Smith

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Model analysis provides a mechanism for representing student learning as measured by standard multiple-choice surveys. The model plot contains information regarding both how likely students in a particular class are to choose the correct answer and how likely they are to choose an answer consistent with a well-documented conceptual model. Unfortunately, Bao’s original presentation of the model plot did not include a way to represent uncertainty in these measurements. I present details of a method to add error bars to model plots by expanding the work of Sommer and Lindell. I also provide a template for generating model plots with error bars.

  20. Combustion instability modeling and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santoro, R.J.; Yang, V.; Santavicca, D.A. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)] [and others

    1995-10-01

    It is well known that the two key elements for achieving low emissions and high performance in a gas turbine combustor are to simultaneously establish (1) a lean combustion zone for maintaining low NO{sub x} emissions and (2) rapid mixing for good ignition and flame stability. However, these requirements, when coupled with the short combustor lengths used to limit the residence time for NO formation typical of advanced gas turbine combustors, can lead to problems regarding unburned hydrocarbons (UHC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, as well as the occurrence of combustion instabilities. Clearly, the key to successful gas turbine development is based on understanding the effects of geometry and operating conditions on combustion instability, emissions (including UHC, CO and NO{sub x}) and performance. The concurrent development of suitable analytical and numerical models that are validated with experimental studies is important for achieving this objective. A major benefit of the present research will be to provide for the first time an experimentally verified model of emissions and performance of gas turbine combustors.

  1. Specifying design conservatism: Worst case versus probabilistic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Ralph F., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Design conservatism is the difference between specified and required performance, and is introduced when uncertainty is present. The classical approach of worst-case analysis for specifying design conservatism is presented, along with the modern approach of probabilistic analysis. The appropriate degree of design conservatism is a tradeoff between the required resources and the probability and consequences of a failure. A probabilistic analysis properly models this tradeoff, while a worst-case analysis reveals nothing about the probability of failure, and can significantly overstate the consequences of failure. Two aerospace examples will be presented that illustrate problems that can arise with a worst-case analysis.

  2. Risk tradeoffs and public health protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charnley, G.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: over the last 25 years, the traditional command-and-control, chemical-by-chemical environmental medium-by-environmental medium, risk-by-risk approach to protecting public health from environmental risks has worked well to greatly improve the quality of our food, air, water, and workplaces, but we are now left with the more complex problems, like urban air pollution or personal dietary behavior, that a chemical-by-chemical approach is not going to solve. Because current environmental regulatory programs have curbed the 'low-hanging fruit' and because of today's emphasis on achieving risk reductions cost-effectively, new and creative public health-based approaches to risk management are needed. Since public concern about pollution-related disease become serious in the 1960's and 1970's and regulatory agencies and laws began to proliferate, the public health goals of environmental protection have been obscured. As a society, we have made a tradeoff between environmental health and public health. The public health foundation of environmental health protection has been obscured by legalistic, technical, centralized decision-making processes that have often mistaken hazard for risk. A greater focus on public health would help us to assess aggregate risks and to target risk management resources by focusing on a problem and then identifying what is causing the problem as a guide to determining how best to solve it. Most of our current approaches start with a cause and then try to eliminate it without determining the extent to which it actually may contribute to a problem, making it difficult to set priorities among risks or to evaluate the impact of risk management actions on public health. (author)

  3. Three-dimensional model analysis and processing

    CERN Document Server

    Yu, Faxin; Luo, Hao; Wang, Pinghui

    2011-01-01

    This book focuses on five hot research directions in 3D model analysis and processing in computer science:  compression, feature extraction, content-based retrieval, irreversible watermarking and reversible watermarking.

  4. Two sustainable energy system analysis models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Goran Krajacic, Neven Duic; da Graca Carvalho, Maria

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of two energy system analysis models both designed with the purpose of analysing electricity systems with a substantial share of fluctuating renewable energy....

  5. Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huiskes, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    Title: Automatic differentiation algorithms in model analysis
    Author: M.J. Huiskes
    Date: 19 March, 2002

    In this thesis automatic differentiation algorithms and derivative-based methods

  6. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  7. Information-disturbance tradeoff in estimating a unitary transformation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bisio, Alessandro; D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro; Perinotti, Paolo; Chiribella, Giulio

    2010-01-01

    We address the problem of the information-disturbance tradeoff associated to the estimation of a quantum transformation and show how the extraction of information about a black box causes a perturbation of the corresponding input-output evolution. In the case of a black box performing a unitary transformation, randomly distributed according to the invariant measure, we give a complete solution of the problem, deriving the optimal tradeoff curve and presenting an explicit construction of the optimal quantum network.

  8. A tradeoff frontier for global nitrogen use and cereal production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Nathaniel D; West, Paul C; Gerber, James S; MacDonald, Graham K; Foley, Jonathan A; Polasky, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen fertilizer use across the world’s croplands enables high-yielding agricultural production, but does so at considerable environmental cost. Imbalances between nitrogen applied and nitrogen used by crops contributes to excess nitrogen in the environment, with negative consequences for water quality, air quality, and climate change. Here we utilize crop input-yield models to investigate how to minimize nitrogen application while achieving crop production targets. We construct a tradeoff frontier that estimates the minimum nitrogen fertilizer needed to produce a range of maize, wheat, and rice production levels. Additionally, we explore potential environmental consequences by calculating excess nitrogen along the frontier using a soil surface nitrogen balance model. We find considerable opportunity to achieve greater production and decrease both nitrogen application and post-harvest excess nitrogen. Our results suggest that current (circa 2000) levels of cereal production could be achieved with ∼50% less nitrogen application and ∼60% less excess nitrogen. If current global nitrogen application were held constant but spatially redistributed, production could increase ∼30%. If current excess nitrogen were held constant, production could increase ∼40%. Efficient spatial patterns of nitrogen use on the frontier involve substantial reductions in many high-use areas and moderate increases in many low-use areas. Such changes may be difficult to achieve in practice due to infrastructure, economic, or political constraints. Increases in agronomic efficiency would expand the frontier to allow greater production and environmental gains

  9. Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.

  10. Credit Risk Evaluation : Modeling - Analysis - Management

    OpenAIRE

    Wehrspohn, Uwe

    2002-01-01

    An analysis and further development of the building blocks of modern credit risk management: -Definitions of default -Estimation of default probabilities -Exposures -Recovery Rates -Pricing -Concepts of portfolio dependence -Time horizons for risk calculations -Quantification of portfolio risk -Estimation of risk measures -Portfolio analysis and portfolio improvement -Evaluation and comparison of credit risk models -Analytic portfolio loss distributions The thesis contributes to the evaluatio...

  11. Ignalina NPP Safety Analysis: Models and Results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uspuras, E.

    1999-01-01

    Research directions, linked to safety assessment of the Ignalina NPP, of the scientific safety analysis group are presented: Thermal-hydraulic analysis of accidents and operational transients; Thermal-hydraulic assessment of Ignalina NPP Accident Localization System and other compartments; Structural analysis of plant components, piping and other parts of Main Circulation Circuit; Assessment of RBMK-1500 reactor core and other. Models and main works carried out last year are described. (author)

  12. FAME, the flux analysis and modelling environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boele, J.; Olivier, B.G.; Teusink, B.

    2012-01-01

    Background: The creation and modification of genome-scale metabolic models is a task that requires specialized software tools. While these are available, subsequently running or visualizing a model often relies on disjoint code, which adds additional actions to the analysis routine and, in our

  13. A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

    2015-01-01

    In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

  14. Numerical modeling techniques for flood analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anees, Mohd Talha; Abdullah, K.; Nawawi, M. N. M.; Ab Rahman, Nik Norulaini Nik; Piah, Abd. Rahni Mt.; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Syakir, M. I.; Mohd. Omar, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    Topographic and climatic changes are the main causes of abrupt flooding in tropical areas. It is the need to find out exact causes and effects of these changes. Numerical modeling techniques plays a vital role for such studies due to their use of hydrological parameters which are strongly linked with topographic changes. In this review, some of the widely used models utilizing hydrological and river modeling parameters and their estimation in data sparse region are discussed. Shortcomings of 1D and 2D numerical models and the possible improvements over these models through 3D modeling are also discussed. It is found that the HEC-RAS and FLO 2D model are best in terms of economical and accurate flood analysis for river and floodplain modeling respectively. Limitations of FLO 2D in floodplain modeling mainly such as floodplain elevation differences and its vertical roughness in grids were found which can be improve through 3D model. Therefore, 3D model was found to be more suitable than 1D and 2D models in terms of vertical accuracy in grid cells. It was also found that 3D models for open channel flows already developed recently but not for floodplain. Hence, it was suggested that a 3D model for floodplain should be developed by considering all hydrological and high resolution topographic parameter's models, discussed in this review, to enhance the findings of causes and effects of flooding.

  15. Perturbation analysis of nonlinear matrix population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hal Caswell

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Perturbation analysis examines the response of a model to changes in its parameters. It is commonly applied to population growth rates calculated from linear models, but there has been no general approach to the analysis of nonlinear models. Nonlinearities in demographic models may arise due to density-dependence, frequency-dependence (in 2-sex models, feedback through the environment or the economy, and recruitment subsidy due to immigration, or from the scaling inherent in calculations of proportional population structure. This paper uses matrix calculus to derive the sensitivity and elasticity of equilibria, cycles, ratios (e.g. dependency ratios, age averages and variances, temporal averages and variances, life expectancies, and population growth rates, for both age-classified and stage-classified models. Examples are presented, applying the results to both human and non-human populations.

  16. Trade-offs between sexual advertisement and immune function in the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca).

    OpenAIRE

    Kilpimaa, Janne; Alatalo, Rauno V.; Siitari, Heli

    2004-01-01

    Good genes models of sexual selection assume that sexual advertisement is costly and thus the level of advertisement honestly reveals heritable viability. Recently it has been suggested that an important cost of sexual advertisement might be impairment of the functioning of the immune system. In this field experiment we investigated the possible trade-offs between immune function and sexual advertisement by manipulating both mating effort and activity of immune defence in male pied flycatcher...

  17. Life history trade-offs imposed by dragline use in two money spiders

    OpenAIRE

    Bonte, Dries; Verduyn, Lieselot; Braeckman, Bart

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs among life history traits are central to understanding the limits of adaptations to stress. In animals, virtually all decisions taken during life are expected to have downstream consequences. To what degree rare, but energy-demanding, decisions carry over to individual performance is rarely studied in arthropods. We used spiders as a model system to test how single investments in silk use - for dispersal or predator escape - affect individual performance. Silk produced for safe lin...

  18. MSSV Modeling for Wolsong-1 Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Bok Ja; Choi, Chul Jin; Kim, Seoung Rae [KEPCO EandC, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    The main steam safety valves (MSSVs) are installed on the main steam line to prevent the overpressurization of the system. MSSVs are held in closed position by spring force and the valves pop open by internal force when the main steam pressure increases to open set pressure. If the overpressure condition is relieved, the valves begin to close. For the safety analysis of anticipated accident condition, the safety systems are modeled conservatively to simulate the accident condition more severe. MSSVs are also modeled conservatively for the analysis of over-pressurization accidents. In this paper, the pressure transient is analyzed at over-pressurization condition to evaluate the conservatism for MSSV models

  19. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  20. Solvency and Liquidity Level Trade-off: Does it Exist in Croatian Banking Sector?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kundid Novokmet Ana

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available We focus on 32 Croatian banks in the period 2002-2010 in order to investigate the solvency-liquidity nexus. Dynamic panel data analysis is applied on two basic models in which current liquidity ratio and equity to assets ratio are set as dependent variables, interchangeably, and other explanatory variables employed to capture the effect of bank size, profitability and asset quality as well as macroeconomic environment. We found two-way positive relationship between bank solvency and liquidity. However, bank size plays an important role in the capital and liquidity management, and trade-off between the solvency and liquidity level is found for the larger banks. Therefore, policymakers should take into consideration capital and liquidity interdependence, as well as the bank size effect when designing capital and liquidity requirements in order to downsize the regulatory burden for smaller banks, and increase them for larger banks. Namely, larger banks tend to minimize regulatory costs by avoiding simultaneous increase of liquidity and solvency. Small banks do exactly the opposite and stock both, capital and liquidity, what potentially makes their funds allocation sub-optimal, from their own as well as social point of view. Altogether, the paper contributes to scarce empirical evidence regarding bank solvency and liquidity interdependence, particularly when the post-transitional banking sectors are taken into consideration. It adds to knowledge on bank financial management in praxis, and bank managers and prudential authorities might find it relevant for their policies design and implementation.

  1. A Requirements Analysis Model Based on QFD

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Zhi-wei; Nelson K.H.Tang

    2004-01-01

    The enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has emerged to offer an integrated IT solution and more and more enterprises are increasing by adopting this system and regarding it as an important innovation. However, there is already evidence of high failure risks in ERP project implementation, one major reason is poor analysis of the requirements for system implementation. In this paper, the importance of requirements analysis for ERP project implementation is highlighted, and a requirements analysis model by applying quality function deployment (QFD) is presented, which will support to conduct requirements analysis for ERP project.

  2. Strategic tradeoffs in competitor dynamics on adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Noël, Pierre-André; Young, Jean-Gabriel; Libby, Eric

    2017-08-08

    Recent empirical work highlights the heterogeneity of social competitions such as political campaigns: proponents of some ideologies seek debate and conversation, others create echo chambers. While symmetric and static network structure is typically used as a substrate to study such competitor dynamics, network structure can instead be interpreted as a signature of the competitor strategies, yielding competition dynamics on adaptive networks. Here we demonstrate that tradeoffs between aggressiveness and defensiveness (i.e., targeting adversaries vs. targeting like-minded individuals) creates paradoxical behaviour such as non-transitive dynamics. And while there is an optimal strategy in a two competitor system, three competitor systems have no such solution; the introduction of extreme strategies can easily affect the outcome of a competition, even if the extreme strategies have no chance of winning. Not only are these results reminiscent of classic paradoxical results from evolutionary game theory, but the structure of social networks created by our model can be mapped to particular forms of payoff matrices. Consequently, social structure can act as a measurable metric for social games which in turn allows us to provide a game theoretical perspective on online political debates.

  3. Managing unforeseen events in anesthesia: collective trade-off between "understanding" and "doing".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuvelier, L; Falzon, P; Granry, J C; Moll, M C

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to describe how anesthesia teams handle unforeseen events that may affect the patients' health. More precisely, it investigates the mechanisms of decisions made by anesthesia teams to manage unthought-of situations, i.e. situations that have not been foreseen as "possible" ones before their occurrence. An empirical study, based on the analysis of simulated situations, was conducted in a pediatric anesthesia service of a university hospital in France. The results highlighted three ways of managing unthought-of situations (determined management, cautious management and overwhelmed management). They support the hypothesis of a collective cognitive trade-off, whereby teams would behave as virtual operators, with their own collective trade-off between "understanding" and "doing". The discussion of the results questions the assessment criteria, the safety perspectives we adopt and the possible ways to improve the management of unforeseen situations.

  4. Sustainability Orientation and Entrepreneurship Orientation: Is There a Tradeoff Relationship between Them?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Soo Sung

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability and entrepreneurship are often regarded as binary concepts that have a tradeoff relationship, meaning that the higher the social and environmental consideration, the lower the private and economic benefits. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of individual sustainability orientation on opportunity recognition and sustainable entrepreneurship intention, and examine whether it has a tradeoff relationship with entrepreneurship orientation. The result of this study shows that sustainability orientation has a positive relationship with opportunity recognition and entrepreneurship intention related to sustainability. Analysis of the moderating effects of entrepreneurship orientation reveals the positive effect with sustainability orientation but negative effect with opportunity recognition on sustainable entrepreneurship intention. This study would suggest implications to entrepreneurs on how to balance sustainability and entrepreneurship and promote sustainability entrepreneurship.

  5. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  6. Selection bias in studies of human reproduction-longevity trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helle, Samuli

    2017-12-13

    A shorter lifespan as a potential cost of high reproductive effort in humans has intrigued researchers for more than a century. However, the results have been inconclusive so far and despite strong theoretical expectations we do not currently have compelling evidence for the longevity costs of reproduction. Using Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown here that a common practice in human reproduction-longevity studies using historical data (the most relevant data sources for this question), the omission of women who died prior to menopausal age from the analysis, results in severe underestimation of the potential underlying trade-off between reproduction and lifespan. In other words, assuming that such a trade-off is expressed also during reproductive years, the strength of the trade-off between reproduction and lifespan is progressively weakened when women dying during reproductive ages are sequentially and non-randomly excluded from the analysis. In cases of small sample sizes (e.g. few hundreds of observations), this selection bias by reducing statistical power may even partly explain the null results commonly found in this field. Future studies in this field should thus apply statistical approaches that account for or avoid selection bias in order to recover reliable effect size estimates between reproduction and longevity. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. Functional trade-off between strength and thermal capacity of dermal armor: Insights from girdled lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broeckhoven, Chris; du Plessis, Anton; Hui, Cang

    2017-10-01

    The presence of dermal armor is often unambiguously considered the result of an evolutionary predator-prey arms-race. Recent studies focusing predominantly on osteoderms - mineralized elements embedded in the dermis layer of various extant and extinct vertebrates - have instead proposed that dermal armor might exhibit additional functionalities besides protection. Multiple divergent functionalities could impose conflicting demands on a phenotype, yet, functional trade-offs in dermal armor have rarely been investigated. Here, we use high-resolution micro-computed tomography and voxel-based simulations to test for a trade-off between the strength and thermal capacity of osteoderms using two armored cordylid lizards as model organisms. We demonstrate that high vascularization, associated with improved thermal capacity might limit the strength of osteoderms. These results call for a holistic, cautionary future approach to studies investigating dermal armor, especially those aiming to inspire artificial protective materials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Delay-area trade-off for MPRM circuits based on hybrid discrete particle swarm optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Zhidi; Wang Zhenhai; Wang Pengjun

    2013-01-01

    Polarity optimization for mixed polarity Reed—Muller (MPRM) circuits is a combinatorial issue. Based on the study on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO) and mixed polarity, the corresponding relation between particle and mixed polarity is established, and the delay-area trade-off of large-scale MPRM circuits is proposed. Firstly, mutation operation and elitist strategy in genetic algorithm are incorporated into DPSO to further develop a hybrid DPSO (HDPSO). Then the best polarity for delay and area trade-off is searched for large-scale MPRM circuits by combining the HDPSO and a delay estimation model. Finally, the proposed algorithm is testified by MCNC Benchmarks. Experimental results show that HDPSO achieves a better convergence than DPSO in terms of search capability for large-scale MPRM circuits. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  9. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  10. Teori Pecking Order dan Trade-Off dalam Analisis Struktur Modal di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Agus Harjito

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available AbstractThis study aims to test the pecking order theory and trade-off theory of capital structure in the analysis of the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Pecking order theory is represented by the variable profitability and growth, while the variables volatility of earnings, tangibility of assets and the size represents a trade-off theory. The company's goal is prosperity of shareholder value. To achieve these objectives the company needs funds from internal sources and external sources. Internal sources in the form of retained earnings, while the external sources of debt and shareholders' approval in the pecking order theory. This study uses the data of financial ratios of the firms during the period 2000-2010. To analyze the data, this study uses a multiple regression with the dependent variable is the debt ratio, while profitability, growth, volatility of earnings, tangibility of assets and size as independent variables. The results show that asset structure and company size has a positive and significant impact on capital structure, while profitability has a negative effect on debt ratios. But company's growth rate has not relationship with the debt ratio or capital structure. Simultaneously, the all independent variables affect capital structure significantly.Keywords: pecking order, trade-off, capital structure, debt rasioAbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji teori pecking order dan teori trade-off dalam analisis struktur modal di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Teori pecking order diwakili oleh variabel profitability dan growth, sementara variabel-variabel volatility of earnings, tangibility of assets dan size mewakili teori trade-off. Tujuan perusahaan adalah memakmurkan nilai pemegang saham. Untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut perusahaan membutuhkan dana yang diperoleh dari sumber internal dan sumber eksternal. Sumber internal berupa laba ditahan, sedangkan sumber eksternal berupa hutang dan saham sebagaimana dijelaskan dalam teori pecking order

  11. A matter of tradeoffs: reintroduction as a multiple objective decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Folk, Martin J.; Runge, Michael C.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making in guidance of reintroduction efforts is made challenging by the substantial scientific uncertainty typically involved. However, a less recognized challenge is that the management objectives are often numerous and complex. Decision makers managing reintroduction efforts are often concerned with more than just how to maximize the probability of reintroduction success from a population perspective. Decision makers are also weighing other concerns such as budget limitations, public support and/or opposition, impacts on the ecosystem, and the need to consider not just a single reintroduction effort, but conservation of the entire species. Multiple objective decision analysis is a powerful tool for formal analysis of such complex decisions. We demonstrate the use of multiple objective decision analysis in the case of the Florida non-migratory whooping crane reintroduction effort. In this case, the State of Florida was considering whether to resume releases of captive-reared crane chicks into the non-migratory whooping crane population in that state. Management objectives under consideration included maximizing the probability of successful population establishment, minimizing costs, maximizing public relations benefits, maximizing the number of birds available for alternative reintroduction efforts, and maximizing learning about the demographic patterns of reintroduced whooping cranes. The State of Florida engaged in a collaborative process with their management partners, first, to evaluate and characterize important uncertainties about system behavior, and next, to formally evaluate the tradeoffs between objectives using the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The recommendation resulting from this process, to continue releases of cranes at a moderate intensity, was adopted by the State of Florida in late 2008. Although continued releases did not receive support from the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, this approach does provide

  12. Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix B: Design trade-off studies report. Volume 2: Supplement to design trade-off studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-01-01

    Results of studies leading to the preliminary design of a hybrid passenger vehicle which is projected to have the maximum potential for reducing petroleum consumption in the near term are presented. Heat engine/electric hybrid vehicle tradeoffs, assessment of battery power source, and weight and cost analysis of key components are among the topics covered. Performance of auxiliary equipment, such as power steering, power brakes, air conditioning, lighting and electrical accessories, heating and ventilation is discussed along with the selection of preferred passenger compartment heating procedure for the hybrid vehicle. Waste heat from the engine, thermal energy storage, and an auxiliary burner are among the approaches considered.

  13. Optimal trade-offs between energy efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply: A review of international experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldini, Mattia; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    the improvements made in the energy saving field. Indeed, little attention has been paid to implement energy efficiency measures, which has resulted in scenarios where expedients for a wise use of energy (e.g. energy savings and renewables share) are unbalanced. The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate...... international experiences on finding the optimal trade-off between efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply. A critical review of each technique, focusing on purposes, methodology and outcomes, is provided along with a review of tools adopted for the analyses. The models are categorized...... trade-off between renewables and energy efficiency measures in energy-systems under different objectives....

  14. Critical analysis of algebraic collective models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moshinsky, M.

    1986-01-01

    The author shall understand by algebraic collective models all those based on specific Lie algebras, whether the latter are suggested through simple shell model considerations like in the case of the Interacting Boson Approximation (IBA), or have a detailed microscopic foundation like the symplectic model. To analyze these models critically, it is convenient to take a simple conceptual example of them in which all steps can be implemented analytically or through elementary numerical analysis. In this note he takes as an example the symplectic model in a two dimensional space i.e. based on a sp(4,R) Lie algebra, and show how through its complete discussion we can get a clearer understanding of the structure of algebraic collective models of nuclei. In particular he discusses the association of Hamiltonians, related to maximal subalgebras of our basic Lie algebra, with specific types of spectra, and the connections between spectra and shapes

  15. Model Selection in Data Analysis Competitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wind, David Kofoed; Winther, Ole

    2014-01-01

    The use of data analysis competitions for selecting the most appropriate model for a problem is a recent innovation in the field of predictive machine learning. Two of the most well-known examples of this trend was the Netflix Competition and recently the competitions hosted on the online platform...... performers from Kaggle and use previous personal experiences from competing in Kaggle competitions. The stated hypotheses about feature engineering, ensembling, overfitting, model complexity and evaluation metrics give indications and guidelines on how to select a proper model for performing well...... Kaggle. In this paper, we will state and try to verify a set of qualitative hypotheses about predictive modelling, both in general and in the scope of data analysis competitions. To verify our hypotheses we will look at previous competitions and their outcomes, use qualitative interviews with top...

  16. LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)

  17. Multi-objective Analysis for a Sequencing Planning of Mixed-model Assembly Line

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Yoshiaki; Waki, Toshiya; Yoo, Jae Kyu

    Diversified customer demands are raising importance of just-in-time and agile manufacturing much more than before. Accordingly, introduction of mixed-model assembly lines becomes popular to realize the small-lot-multi-kinds production. Since it produces various kinds on the same assembly line, a rational management is of special importance. With this point of view, this study focuses on a sequencing problem of mixed-model assembly line including a paint line as its preceding process. By taking into account the paint line together, reducing work-in-process (WIP) inventory between these heterogeneous lines becomes a major concern of the sequencing problem besides improving production efficiency. Finally, we have formulated the sequencing problem as a bi-objective optimization problem to prevent various line stoppages, and to reduce the volume of WIP inventory simultaneously. Then we have proposed a practical method for the multi-objective analysis. For this purpose, we applied the weighting method to derive the Pareto front. Actually, the resulting problem is solved by a meta-heuristic method like SA (Simulated Annealing). Through numerical experiments, we verified the validity of the proposed approach, and discussed the significance of trade-off analysis between the conflicting objectives.

  18. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of control strategies using the benchmark simulation model No1 (BSM1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Rodriguez-Roda, Ignasi; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist V

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the predictions of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) No. 1, when comparing four activated sludge control strategies. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to evaluate the uncertainty in the BSM1 predictions, considering the ASM1 bio-kinetic parameters and influent fractions as input uncertainties while the Effluent Quality Index (EQI) and the Operating Cost Index (OCI) are focused on as model outputs. The resulting Monte Carlo simulations are presented using descriptive statistics indicating the degree of uncertainty in the predicted EQI and OCI. Next, the Standard Regression Coefficients (SRC) method is used for sensitivity analysis to identify which input parameters influence the uncertainty in the EQI predictions the most. The results show that control strategies including an ammonium (S(NH)) controller reduce uncertainty in both overall pollution removal and effluent total Kjeldahl nitrogen. Also, control strategies with an external carbon source reduce the effluent nitrate (S(NO)) uncertainty increasing both their economical cost and variability as a trade-off. Finally, the maximum specific autotrophic growth rate (micro(A)) causes most of the variance in the effluent for all the evaluated control strategies. The influence of denitrification related parameters, e.g. eta(g) (anoxic growth rate correction factor) and eta(h) (anoxic hydrolysis rate correction factor), becomes less important when a S(NO) controller manipulating an external carbon source addition is implemented.

  19. FAME, the Flux Analysis and Modeling Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boele Joost

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The creation and modification of genome-scale metabolic models is a task that requires specialized software tools. While these are available, subsequently running or visualizing a model often relies on disjoint code, which adds additional actions to the analysis routine and, in our experience, renders these applications suboptimal for routine use by (systems biologists. Results The Flux Analysis and Modeling Environment (FAME is the first web-based modeling tool that combines the tasks of creating, editing, running, and analyzing/visualizing stoichiometric models into a single program. Analysis results can be automatically superimposed on familiar KEGG-like maps. FAME is written in PHP and uses the Python-based PySCeS-CBM for its linear solving capabilities. It comes with a comprehensive manual and a quick-start tutorial, and can be accessed online at http://f-a-m-e.org/. Conclusions With FAME, we present the community with an open source, user-friendly, web-based "one stop shop" for stoichiometric modeling. We expect the application will be of substantial use to investigators and educators alike.

  20. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: A spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zavalloni, M.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Zwieten, van P.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bioeconomic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the

  1. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.L.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    In many types of structures, it is possible to use generalized stresses (like membrane forces, bending moment, torsion moment...) to define a yield surface for a part of the structure. Analysis can be achieved by using the HILL's principle and a hardening rule. The whole formulation is said 'Global Plastic Model'. Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for shell analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses chosen are the membrane forces and bending (including torsion) moments. There is only one yield condition for a normal to the middle surface and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is bending moments, torsional moment, hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and no integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic function of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield functions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text

  2. Understanding tradeoffs in the supplier selection process : The role of flexibility, delivery, and value-added services/support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rhee, van der B.; Verma, R.; Plaschka, G.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we present, based on econometric choice modeling framework, how manufacturing managers/executives trade-off between cost, delivery, flexibility, and service features in the supplier selection process for commodity raw materials, given acceptable quality. Empirical data for this study

  3. The trade-off between money and time: A test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Borger, Bruno; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2008-01-01

    We formulate a model of reference-dependent preferences based on the marginal rate of substitution at the reference-point of a reference-free utility function. Using binary choices on the trade-off between money and travel time, reference-dependence is captured by value functions that are centered...

  4. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  5. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  6. Modeling and Analysis of Space Based Transceivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Michael S.; Price, Jeremy C.; Abbott, Ben; Liebetreu, John; Reinhart, Richard C.; Kacpura, Thomas J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents the tool chain, methodology, and initial results of a study to provide a thorough, objective, and quantitative analysis of the design alternatives for space Software Defined Radio (SDR) transceivers. The approach taken was to develop a set of models and tools for describing communications requirements, the algorithm resource requirements, the available hardware, and the alternative software architectures, and generate analysis data necessary to compare alternative designs. The Space Transceiver Analysis Tool (STAT) was developed to help users identify and select representative designs, calculate the analysis data, and perform a comparative analysis of the representative designs. The tool allows the design space to be searched quickly while permitting incremental refinement in regions of higher payoff.

  7. Providing high-quality care in primary care settings: how to make trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique; Geneau, Robert; Del Grande, Claudio; Denis, Jean-Louis; Hudon, Eveline; Haggerty, Jeannie L; Bonin, Lucie; Duplain, Réjean; Goudreau, Johanne; Hogg, William

    2014-05-01

    To gain a deeper understanding of how primary care (PC) practices belonging to different models manage resources to provide high-quality care. Multiple-case study embedded in a cross-sectional study of a random sample of 37 practices. Three regions of Quebec. Health care professionals and staff of 5 PC practices. Five cases showing above-average results on quality-of-care indicators were purposefully selected to contrast on region, practice size, and PC model. Data were collected using an organizational questionnaire; the Team Climate Inventory, which was completed by health care professionals and staff; and 33 individual interviews. Detailed case histories were written and thematic analysis was performed. The core common feature of these practices was their ongoing effort to make trade-offs to deliver services that met their vision of high-quality care. These compromises involved the same 3 areas, but to varying degrees depending on clinic characteristics: developing a shared vision of high-quality care; aligning resource use with that vision; and balancing professional aspirations and population needs. The leadership of the physician lead was crucial. The external environment was perceived as a source of pressure and dilemmas rather than as a source of support in these matters. Irrespective of their models, PC practices' pursuit of high-quality care is based on a vision in which accessibility is a key component, balanced by appropriate management of available resources and of external environment expectations. Current PC reforms often create tensions rather than support PC practices in their pursuit of high-quality care. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

  8. Modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Kulkarni, Vidyadhar G

    2011-01-01

    Based on the author's more than 25 years of teaching experience, Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Systems, Second Edition covers the most important classes of stochastic processes used in the modeling of diverse systems, from supply chains and inventory systems to genetics and biological systems. For each class of stochastic process, the text includes its definition, characterization, applications, transient and limiting behavior, first passage times, and cost/reward models. Along with reorganizing the material, this edition revises and adds new exercises and examples. New to the second edi

  9. Independent Component Analysis in Multimedia Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Jan

    2003-01-01

    largely refers to text, images/video, audio and combinations of such data. We review a number of applications within single and combined media with the hope that this might provide inspiration for further research in this area. Finally, we provide a detailed presentation of our own recent work on modeling......Modeling of multimedia and multimodal data becomes increasingly important with the digitalization of the world. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of independent component analysis and blind sources separation methods for modeling and understanding of multimedia data, which...

  10. Review and analysis of biomass gasification models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puig Arnavat, Maria; Bruno, Joan Carles; Coronas, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    , and the design, simulation, optimisation and process analysis of gasifiers have been carried out. This paper presents and analyses several gasification models based on thermodynamic equilibrium, kinetics and artificial neural networks. The thermodynamic models are found to be a useful tool for preliminary...... comparison and for process studies on the influence of the most important fuel and process parameters. They have the advantage of being independent of gasifier design, but they cannot give highly accurate results for all cases. The kinetic-based models are computationally more intensive but give accurate...

  11. Modeling, Analysis, and Optimization Issues for Large Space Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, L. D. (Compiler); Amos, A. K. (Compiler); Venkayya, V. B. (Compiler)

    1983-01-01

    Topics concerning the modeling, analysis, and optimization of large space structures are discussed including structure-control interaction, structural and structural dynamics modeling, thermal analysis, testing, and design.

  12. Interactive Visual Analysis within Dynamic Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butkiewicz, T.

    2012-12-01

    The many observation and simulation based ocean models available today can provide crucial insights for all fields of marine research and can serve as valuable references when planning data collection missions. However, the increasing size and complexity of these models makes leveraging their contents difficult for end users. Through a combination of data visualization techniques, interactive analysis tools, and new hardware technologies, the data within these models can be made more accessible to domain scientists. We present an interactive system that supports exploratory visual analysis within large-scale ocean flow models. The currents and eddies within the models are illustrated using effective, particle-based flow visualization techniques. Stereoscopic displays and rendering methods are employed to ensure that the user can correctly perceive the complex 3D structures of depth-dependent flow patterns. Interactive analysis tools are provided which allow the user to experiment through the introduction of their customizable virtual dye particles into the models to explore regions of interest. A multi-touch interface provides natural, efficient interaction, with custom multi-touch gestures simplifying the otherwise challenging tasks of navigating and positioning tools within a 3D environment. We demonstrate the potential applications of our visual analysis environment with two examples of real-world significance: Firstly, an example of using customized particles with physics-based behaviors to simulate pollutant release scenarios, including predicting the oil plume path for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster. Secondly, an interactive tool for plotting and revising proposed autonomous underwater vehicle mission pathlines with respect to the surrounding flow patterns predicted by the model; as these survey vessels have extremely limited energy budgets, designing more efficient paths allows for greater survey areas.

  13. ADHD performance reflects inefficient but not impulsive information processing: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metin, Baris; Roeyers, Herbert; Wiersema, Jan R; van der Meere, Jaap J; Thompson, Margaret; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2013-03-01

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with performance deficits across a broad range of tasks. Although individual tasks are designed to tap specific cognitive functions (e.g., memory, inhibition, planning, etc.), these deficits could also reflect general effects related to either inefficient or impulsive information processing or both. These two components cannot be isolated from each other on the basis of classical analysis in which mean reaction time (RT) and mean accuracy are handled separately. Seventy children with a diagnosis of combined type ADHD and 50 healthy controls (between 6 and 17 years) performed two tasks: a simple two-choice RT (2-CRT) task and a conflict control task (CCT) that required higher levels of executive control. RT and errors were analyzed using the Ratcliff diffusion model, which divides decisional time into separate estimates of information processing efficiency (called "drift rate") and speed-accuracy tradeoff (SATO, called "boundary"). The model also provides an estimate of general nondecisional time. Results were the same for both tasks independent of executive load. ADHD was associated with lower drift rate and less nondecisional time. The groups did not differ in terms of boundary parameter estimates. RT and accuracy performance in ADHD appears to reflect inefficient rather than impulsive information processing, an effect independent of executive function load. The results are consistent with models in which basic information processing deficits make an important contribution to the ADHD cognitive phenotype. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Ensemble Modeling for Robustness Analysis in engineering non-native metabolic pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun; Lafontaine Rivera, Jimmy G; Liao, James C

    2014-09-01

    Metabolic pathways in cells must be sufficiently robust to tolerate fluctuations in expression levels and changes in environmental conditions. Perturbations in expression levels may lead to system failure due to the disappearance of a stable steady state. Increasing evidence has suggested that biological networks have evolved such that they are intrinsically robust in their network structure. In this article, we presented Ensemble Modeling for Robustness Analysis (EMRA), which combines a continuation method with the Ensemble Modeling approach, for investigating the robustness issue of non-native pathways. EMRA investigates a large ensemble of reference models with different parameters, and determines the effects of parameter drifting until a bifurcation point, beyond which a stable steady state disappears and system failure occurs. A pathway is considered to have high bifurcational robustness if the probability of system failure is low in the ensemble. To demonstrate the utility of EMRA, we investigate the bifurcational robustness of two synthetic central metabolic pathways that achieve carbon conservation: non-oxidative glycolysis and reverse glyoxylate cycle. With EMRA, we determined the probability of system failure of each design and demonstrated that alternative designs of these pathways indeed display varying degrees of bifurcational robustness. Furthermore, we demonstrated that target selection for flux improvement should consider the trade-offs between robustness and performance. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Market Suitability and Performance Tradeoffs Offered by Commercial Wind Turbines across Differing Wind Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souma Chowdhury

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The suitability of turbine configurations to different wind resources has been traditionally restricted to considering turbines operating as standalone entities. In this paper, a framework is thus developed to investigate turbine suitability in terms of the minimum cost of energy offered when operating as a group of optimally-micro-sited turbines. The four major steps include: (i characterizing the geographical variation of wind regimes in the onshore U.S. market; (ii determining the best performing turbines for different wind regimes through wind farm layout optimization; (iii developing a metric to quantify the expected market suitability of available turbine configurations; and (iv exploring the best tradeoffs between the cost and capacity factor yielded by these turbines. One hundred thirty one types of commercial turbines offered by major global manufacturers in 2012 are considered for selection. It is found that, in general, higher rated power turbines with medium tower heights are the most favored. Interestingly, further analysis showed that “rotor diameter/hub height” ratios greater than 1.1 are the least attractive for any of the wind classes. It is also observed that although the “cost-capacity factor” tradeoff curve expectedly shifted towards higher capacity factors with increasing wind class, the trend of the tradeoff curve remained practically similar.

  16. Valuing tradeoffs between agricultural production and ecosystem services in the Heihe River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Deng, X.; Wu, F.

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem services are faced with multiple stress from complex driving factors, such as climate change and human interventions. The Heihe River Basin (HRB), as the second largest inland river basin in China, is a typical semi-arid and arid region with fragile and sensitive ecological environment. For the past decades, agricultural production activities in the basin has affected ecosystem services in different degrees, leading to complex relations among "water-land-climate-ecology-human", in which hydrological process and water resource management is the key. In this context, managing trade-offs among water uses in the river basin to sustain multiple ecosystem services is crucial for healthy ecosystem and sustainable socioeconomic development. In this study, we analyze the trade-offs between different water uses in agricultural production and key ecosystem services in the HRB by applying production frontier analysis, with the aim to explore the potential for managing them. This method traces out joint production frontiers showing the combinations of ecosystem services and agricultural production that can be generated in a given area, and it deals with the economic problem of the allocation of scarce water resources under presumed objective, which aims to highlight synergies and reduce trade-offs between alternative water uses. Thus, management schemes that targets to both sustain agricultural production and increase the provision of key ecosystem services have to consider not only the technological or biological nature of interrelationships, but also the economic interdependencies among them.

  17. Many-objective optimization and visual analytics reveal key trade-offs for London's water supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matrosov, Evgenii S.; Huskova, Ivana; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Harou, Julien J.; Lambert, Chris; Reed, Patrick M.

    2015-12-01

    In this study, we link a water resource management simulator to multi-objective search to reveal the key trade-offs inherent in planning a real-world water resource system. We consider new supplies and demand management (conservation) options while seeking to elucidate the trade-offs between the best portfolios of schemes to satisfy projected water demands. Alternative system designs are evaluated using performance measures that minimize capital and operating costs and energy use while maximizing resilience, engineering and environmental metrics, subject to supply reliability constraints. Our analysis shows many-objective evolutionary optimization coupled with state-of-the art visual analytics can help planners discover more diverse water supply system designs and better understand their inherent trade-offs. The approach is used to explore future water supply options for the Thames water resource system (including London's water supply). New supply options include a new reservoir, water transfers, artificial recharge, wastewater reuse and brackish groundwater desalination. Demand management options include leakage reduction, compulsory metering and seasonal tariffs. The Thames system's Pareto approximate portfolios cluster into distinct groups of water supply options; for example implementing a pipe refurbishment program leads to higher capital costs but greater reliability. This study highlights that traditional least-cost reliability constrained design of water supply systems masks asset combinations whose benefits only become apparent when more planning objectives are considered.

  18. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  19. Analysis of MUF data using arima models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.J.; Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.

    1978-01-01

    An introduction to Box-Jenkins time series analysis is presented. It is shown how the models presented by Box-Jenkins can be applied to material unaccounted for (MUF) data to detect losses. For the constant loss case an optimal estimate of the loss is found and its probability of detection found

  20. Power system stability modelling, analysis and control

    CERN Document Server

    Sallam, Abdelhay A

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the subject from both a physical and mathematical perspective and covers a range of topics including modelling, computation of load flow in the transmission grid, stability analysis under both steady-state and disturbed conditions, and appropriate controls to enhance stability.

  1. Comparative Distributions of Hazard Modeling Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rana Abdul Wajid

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the comparison among the distributions used in hazard analysis. Simulation technique has been used to study the behavior of hazard distribution modules. The fundamentals of Hazard issues are discussed using failure criteria. We present the flexibility of the hazard modeling distribution that approaches to different distributions.

  2. Do Managers Face a Performance Trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria Falk

    2017-01-01

    equity, accountability, and procedural justice. However, our knowledge of whether such trade-offs exist is scarce. Using an administrative 10-year panel data set of Danish public schools and principals, this paper analyzes trade-offs between production performance (measured by student performance...... and student pass rate) and process performance (measured by equity, accountability, and procedural justice). Results show no evidence of trade-offs. In contrast, principals who succeed in raising student performance generally also succeed in securing high pass rates, high equity, high accountability, and high...... procedural justice. These results suggest that managers who are able to secure high performance on one dimension of performance will likely also be high performing on other performance dimensions....

  3. Structured tradeoffs preference elicitation: Evaluating CRWMS design and operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartman, H.

    1994-01-01

    Preliminary studies over the past few years have yielded multiple design and operations alternatives for the planned Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS). Waste isolation, pre-closure health and safety, and life cycle cost are among the many factors considered in developing these alternatives. The task of CRWMS designers is complicated by substantial heat and nuclear radiation energy output of the spent nuclear fuel and high level waste intended for disposal in an underground repository. Not only must the usual effectiveness, operability and cost objectives be balanced, but done so in the context of a constantly changing environment. Particular alternatives sometimes are favored by virtue of their outstanding performance relative to one of these factors. The Ultimate success of the potential repository, however, depends on reaching a defensible and traceable final decision through simultaneous and systematic weighing of all relevant factors. This paper documents the outcome of Structured Tradeoffs Preference (STP) elicitation as a method for the simultaneous and systematic weighing of factors relevant to repository thermal loading, waste package (WP) design, and emplacement mode decisions. The study provided a low-cost early indication of directions of further research on CRWMS design and operations likely to be most fruitful. The method of STP elicitation was utilized to avoid potential biases documented in other efforts which use only unstructured decision making, or open-quotes well-considered judgmentclose quotes. The STP elicitation procedure presented here complements the use of a parameter network-model pyramid suggested elsewhere in this proceedings to provide a framework for precisely articulating technical questions needing answers. It also forms an independent crosscheck of systems engineering study results and performance assessment modeling

  4. Form of an evolutionary tradeoff affects eco-evolutionary dynamics in a predator-prey system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasada, Minoru; Yamamichi, Masato; Yoshida, Takehito

    2014-11-11

    Evolution on a time scale similar to ecological dynamics has been increasingly recognized for the last three decades. Selection mediated by ecological interactions can change heritable phenotypic variation (i.e., evolution), and evolution of traits, in turn, can affect ecological interactions. Hence, ecological and evolutionary dynamics can be tightly linked and important to predict future dynamics, but our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics is still in its infancy and there is a significant gap between theoretical predictions and empirical tests. Empirical studies have demonstrated that the presence of genetic variation can dramatically change ecological dynamics, whereas theoretical studies predict that eco-evolutionary dynamics depend on the details of the genetic variation, such as the form of a tradeoff among genotypes, which can be more important than the presence or absence of the genetic variation. Using a predator-prey (rotifer-algal) experimental system in laboratory microcosms, we studied how different forms of a tradeoff between prey defense and growth affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Our experimental results show for the first time to our knowledge that different forms of the tradeoff produce remarkably divergent eco-evolutionary dynamics, including near fixation, near extinction, and coexistence of algal genotypes, with quantitatively different population dynamics. A mathematical model, parameterized from completely independent experiments, explains the observed dynamics. The results suggest that knowing the details of heritable trait variation and covariation within a population is essential for understanding how evolution and ecology will interact and what form of eco-evolutionary dynamics will result.

  5. Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

    2015-03-01

    The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

  6. Trade-offs Between Socio-economic Development and Ecosystem Health under Changing Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazemi, A.; Hassanzadeh, E.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Gober, P.; Jardine, T.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Natural and human water systems at regional scales are often developed around key characteristics of streamflow. As a result, changes in streamflow regime can affect both socio-economic activities and freshwater ecosystems. In addition to natural variability and/or climate change, extensive water resource management to support socio-economic growth has also changed streamflow regimes. This study aims at understanding the trade-offs between agricultural expansion in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, and alterations in the ecohydrological characteristics of the Saskatchewan River Delta (SRD) located downstream. Changes in climate along with extensive water resource management have altered the upstream flow regime. Moreover, Saskatchewan is investigating the possible expansion of irrigated agriculture to boost the provincial economy. To evaluate trade-offs across a range of possible scenarios for streamflow changes, the potential increase in provincial net benefit versus potential vulnerability of the SRD was assessed using perturbed flow realizations along with scenarios of irrigation expansion as input to an integrated water resource system model. This study sheds light on the potential variability in trade-offs between economic benefits and ecosystem health under a range of streamflow conditions, with the aim of informing decisions that can benefit both natural and human water systems.

  7. Analysis hierarchical model for discrete event systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciortea, E. M.

    2015-11-01

    The This paper presents the hierarchical model based on discrete event network for robotic systems. Based on the hierarchical approach, Petri network is analysed as a network of the highest conceptual level and the lowest level of local control. For modelling and control of complex robotic systems using extended Petri nets. Such a system is structured, controlled and analysed in this paper by using Visual Object Net ++ package that is relatively simple and easy to use, and the results are shown as representations easy to interpret. The hierarchical structure of the robotic system is implemented on computers analysed using specialized programs. Implementation of hierarchical model discrete event systems, as a real-time operating system on a computer network connected via a serial bus is possible, where each computer is dedicated to local and Petri model of a subsystem global robotic system. Since Petri models are simplified to apply general computers, analysis, modelling, complex manufacturing systems control can be achieved using Petri nets. Discrete event systems is a pragmatic tool for modelling industrial systems. For system modelling using Petri nets because we have our system where discrete event. To highlight the auxiliary time Petri model using transport stream divided into hierarchical levels and sections are analysed successively. Proposed robotic system simulation using timed Petri, offers the opportunity to view the robotic time. Application of goods or robotic and transmission times obtained by measuring spot is obtained graphics showing the average time for transport activity, using the parameters sets of finished products. individually.

  8. Conceptual models for waste tank mechanistic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allemann, R.T.; Antoniak, Z.I.; Eyler, L.L.; Liljegren, L.M.; Roberts, J.S.

    1992-02-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting a study for Westinghouse Hanford Company (Westinghouse Hanford), a contractor for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The purpose of the work is to study possible mechanisms and fluid dynamics contributing to the periodic release of gases from double-shell waste storage tanks at the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington. This interim report emphasizing the modeling work follows two other interim reports, Mechanistic Analysis of Double-Shell Tank Gas Release Progress Report -- November 1990 and Collection and Analysis of Existing Data for Waste Tank Mechanistic Analysis Progress Report -- December 1990, that emphasized data correlation and mechanisms. The approach in this study has been to assemble and compile data that are pertinent to the mechanisms, analyze the data, evaluate physical properties and parameters, evaluate hypothetical mechanisms, and develop mathematical models of mechanisms

  9. ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF GENEVA MECHANISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HARAGA Georgeta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents some aspects theoretical and practical based on the finite element analysis and modelling of Geneva mechanism with four slots, using the CATIA graphic program. This type of mechanism is an example of intermittent gearing that translates a continuous rotation into an intermittent rotary motion. It consists of alternate periods of motion and rest without reversing direction. In this paper, some design parameters with specify a Geneva mechanism will be defined precisely such as number of driving cranks, number of slots, wheel diameter, pin diameter, etc. Finite element analysis (FEA can be used for creating a finite element model (preprocessing and visualizing the analysis results (postprocessing, and use other solvers for processing.

  10. Tradeoffs in the quest for climate smart agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Juliana D. B.; Garrett, Rachael D.; Rotz, Alan; Daioglou, Vassilis; Valentim, Judson; Pires, Gabrielle F.; Costa, Marcos H.; Lopes, Luciano; Reis, Julio C.

    2018-06-01

    Low productivity cattle ranching, with its linkages to rural poverty, deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, remains one of the largest sustainability challenges in Brazil and has impacts worldwide. There is a nearly universal call to intensify extensive beef cattle production systems to spare land for crop production and nature and to meet Brazil’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to reducing global climate change. However, different interventions aimed at the intensification of livestock systems in Brazil may involve substantial social and environmental tradeoffs. Here we examine these tradeoffs using a whole-farm model calibrated for the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, one of the largest soybean and beef cattle production regions in the world. Specifically, we compare the costs and benefits of a typical extensive, continuously grazed cattle system relative to a specialized soybean production system and two improved cattle management strategies (rotational grazing and integrated soybean-cattle) under different climate scenarios. We found clear tradeoffs in GHG and nitrogen emissions, climate resilience, and water and energy use across these systems. Relative to continuously grazed or rotationally grazed cattle systems, the integreated soybean-cattle system showed higher food production and lower GHG emissions per unit of human digestible protein, as well as increased resilience under climate change (both in terms of productivity and financial returns). All systems suffered productivity and profitability losses under severe climate change, highlighting the need for climate smart agricultural development strategies in the region. By underscoring the economic feasibility of improving the performance of cattle systems, and by quantifying the tradeoffs of each option, our results are useful for directing agricultural and climate policy.

  11. Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Niebert, Peter

    This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts of ...... systems, discrete time systems, timed languages, and real-time operating systems....... of two invited talks were carefully selected from 36 submissions during two rounds of reviewing and improvement. All current aspects of formal method for modeling and analyzing timed systems are addressed; among the timed systems dealt with are timed automata, timed Petri nets, max-plus algebras, real-time......This book constitutes the thoroughly refereed post-proceedings of the First International Workshop on Formal Modeling and Analysis of Timed Systems, FORMATS 2003, held in Marseille, France in September 2003. The 19 revised full papers presented together with an invited paper and the abstracts...

  12. Ferrofluids: Modeling, numerical analysis, and scientific computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas, Ignacio

    This dissertation presents some developments in the Numerical Analysis of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) describing the behavior of ferrofluids. The most widely accepted PDE model for ferrofluids is the Micropolar model proposed by R.E. Rosensweig. The Micropolar Navier-Stokes Equations (MNSE) is a subsystem of PDEs within the Rosensweig model. Being a simplified version of the much bigger system of PDEs proposed by Rosensweig, the MNSE are a natural starting point of this thesis. The MNSE couple linear velocity u, angular velocity w, and pressure p. We propose and analyze a first-order semi-implicit fully-discrete scheme for the MNSE, which decouples the computation of the linear and angular velocities, is unconditionally stable and delivers optimal convergence rates under assumptions analogous to those used for the Navier-Stokes equations. Moving onto the much more complex Rosensweig's model, we provide a definition (approximation) for the effective magnetizing field h, and explain the assumptions behind this definition. Unlike previous definitions available in the literature, this new definition is able to accommodate the effect of external magnetic fields. Using this definition we setup the system of PDEs coupling linear velocity u, pressure p, angular velocity w, magnetization m, and magnetic potential ϕ We show that this system is energy-stable and devise a numerical scheme that mimics the same stability property. We prove that solutions of the numerical scheme always exist and, under certain simplifying assumptions, that the discrete solutions converge. A notable outcome of the analysis of the numerical scheme for the Rosensweig's model is the choice of finite element spaces that allow the construction of an energy-stable scheme. Finally, with the lessons learned from Rosensweig's model, we develop a diffuse-interface model describing the behavior of two-phase ferrofluid flows and present an energy-stable numerical scheme for this model. For a

  13. "Entrepreneurship policy: Trade-offs and impact in the EU"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murdock, Karen

    2012-01-01

    Based on the notion that trade-offs in public policies form the basis of the separation of managed and entrepreneurial economies; this paper investigates the impact of policy on actual entrepreneurship activity in these two categories of economies. Using data from 19 European Union member countries......, the impact that policy trade-offs in the goal, target, location and system of finance have on entrepreneurship activity is measured using ordinary least squares regression. The results indicate that while business regulation negatively impact entrepreneurship activity, the location of policy does not show...

  14. Parametric Analysis of Flexible Logic Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lihua Fu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on deep analysis about the essential relation between two input variables of normal two-dimensional fuzzy controller, we used universal combinatorial operation model to describe the logic relationship and gave a flexible logic control method to realize the effective control for complex system. In practical control application, how to determine the general correlation coefficient of flexible logic control model is a problem for further studies. First, the conventional universal combinatorial operation model has been limited in the interval [0,1]. Consequently, this paper studies a kind of universal combinatorial operation model based on the interval [a,b]. And some important theorems are given and proved, which provide a foundation for the flexible logic control method. For dealing reasonably with the complex relations of every factor in complex system, a kind of universal combinatorial operation model with unequal weights is put forward. Then, this paper has carried out the parametric analysis of flexible logic control model. And some research results have been given, which have important directive to determine the values of the general correlation coefficients in practical control application.

  15. Model-Based Analysis for Qualitative Data: An Application in Drosophila Germline Stem Cell Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pargett, Michael; Rundell, Ann E.; Buzzard, Gregery T.; Umulis, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Discovery in developmental biology is often driven by intuition that relies on the integration of multiple types of data such as fluorescent images, phenotypes, and the outcomes of biochemical assays. Mathematical modeling helps elucidate the biological mechanisms at play as the networks become increasingly large and complex. However, the available data is frequently under-utilized due to incompatibility with quantitative model tuning techniques. This is the case for stem cell regulation mechanisms explored in the Drosophila germarium through fluorescent immunohistochemistry. To enable better integration of biological data with modeling in this and similar situations, we have developed a general parameter estimation process to quantitatively optimize models with qualitative data. The process employs a modified version of the Optimal Scaling method from social and behavioral sciences, and multi-objective optimization to evaluate the trade-off between fitting different datasets (e.g. wild type vs. mutant). Using only published imaging data in the germarium, we first evaluated support for a published intracellular regulatory network by considering alternative connections of the same regulatory players. Simply screening networks against wild type data identified hundreds of feasible alternatives. Of these, five parsimonious variants were found and compared by multi-objective analysis including mutant data and dynamic constraints. With these data, the current model is supported over the alternatives, but support for a biochemically observed feedback element is weak (i.e. these data do not measure the feedback effect well). When also comparing new hypothetical models, the available data do not discriminate. To begin addressing the limitations in data, we performed a model-based experiment design and provide recommendations for experiments to refine model parameters and discriminate increasingly complex hypotheses. PMID:24626201

  16. Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.

    1997-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)

  17. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard.

  18. Guideliness for system modeling: fault tree [analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yoon Hwan; Yang, Joon Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Hwang, Mee Jeong

    2004-07-01

    This document, the guidelines for system modeling related to Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), is intended to provide the guidelines with the analyzer to construct the fault trees in the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Especially, they are to provide the essential and basic guidelines and the related contents to be used in support of revising the Ulchin 3 and 4 PSA model for risk monitor within the capability category II of ASME PRA standard. Normally the main objective of system analysis is to assess the reliability of system modeled by Event Tree Analysis (ETA). A variety of analytical techniques can be used for the system analysis, however, FTA method is used in this procedures guide. FTA is the method used for representing the failure logic of plant systems deductively using AND, OR or NOT gates. The fault tree should reflect all possible failure modes that may contribute to the system unavailability. This should include contributions due to the mechanical failures of the components, Common Cause Failures (CCFs), human errors and outages for testing and maintenance. This document identifies and describes the definitions and the general procedures of FTA and the essential and basic guidelines for reving the fault trees. Accordingly, the guidelines for FTA will be capable to guide the FTA to the level of the capability category II of ASME PRA standard

  19. Social phenomena from data analysis to models

    CERN Document Server

    Perra, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    This book focuses on the new possibilities and approaches to social modeling currently being made possible by an unprecedented variety of datasets generated by our interactions with modern technologies. This area has witnessed a veritable explosion of activity over the last few years, yielding many interesting and useful results. Our aim is to provide an overview of the state of the art in this area of research, merging an extremely heterogeneous array of datasets and models. Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models is divided into two parts. Part I deals with modeling social behavior under normal conditions: How we live, travel, collaborate and interact with each other in our daily lives. Part II deals with societal behavior under exceptional conditions: Protests, armed insurgencies, terrorist attacks, and reactions to infectious diseases. This book offers an overview of one of the most fertile emerging fields bringing together practitioners from scientific communities as diverse as social sciences, p...

  20. Getting a Cohesive Answer from a Common Start: Scalable Multidisciplinary Analysis through Transformation of a Systems Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Bjorn; Chung, Seung

    2012-01-01

    One of the challenges of systems engineering is in working multidisciplinary problems in a cohesive manner. When planning analysis of these problems, system engineers must trade between time and cost for analysis quality and quantity. The quality often correlates with greater run time in multidisciplinary models and the quantity is associated with the number of alternatives that can be analyzed. The trade-off is due to the resource intensive process of creating a cohesive multidisciplinary systems model and analysis. Furthermore, reuse or extension of the models used in one stage of a product life cycle for another is a major challenge. Recent developments have enabled a much less resource-intensive and more rigorous approach than hand-written translation scripts between multi-disciplinary models and their analyses. The key is to work from a core systems model defined in a MOF-based language such as SysML and in leveraging the emerging tool ecosystem, such as Query/View/Transformation (QVT), from the OMG community. SysML was designed to model multidisciplinary systems. The QVT standard was designed to transform SysML models into other models, including those leveraged by engineering analyses. The Europa Habitability Mission (EHM) team has begun to exploit these capabilities. In one case, a Matlab/Simulink model is generated on the fly from a system description for power analysis written in SysML. In a more general case, symbolic analysis (supported by Wolfram Mathematica) is coordinated by data objects transformed from the systems model, enabling extremely flexible and powerful design exploration and analytical investigations of expected system performance.

  1. Adding to the Toolkit: Three Conceptual Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-02

    harness linearity and predictability in warfare. Two examples of this are Lanchester Equations and the Dupuy Quantified Judgment Model. Lanchester ...Equations, developed during World War I by Fredrick Lanchester , present differential formulas that describe the time dependence of attacker versus

  2. Statistical Multiplexing of Computations in C-RAN with Tradeoffs in Latency and Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kalør, Anders Ellersgaard; Agurto Agurto, Mauricio Ignacio; Pratas, Nuno

    2017-01-01

    frame duration, then this may result in additional access latency and limit the energy savings. In this paper we investigate the tradeoff by considering two extreme time-scales for the resource multiplexing: (i) long-term, where the computational resources are adapted over periods much larger than...... the access frame durations; (ii) short-term, where the adaption is below the access frame duration.We develop a general C-RAN queuing model that models the access latency and show, for Poisson arrivals, that long-term multiplexing achieves savings comparable to short-term multiplexing, while offering low...

  3. Advances in statistical models for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.

  4. 3D face modeling, analysis and recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Daoudi, Mohamed; Veltkamp, Remco

    2013-01-01

    3D Face Modeling, Analysis and Recognition presents methodologies for analyzing shapes of facial surfaces, develops computational tools for analyzing 3D face data, and illustrates them using state-of-the-art applications. The methodologies chosen are based on efficient representations, metrics, comparisons, and classifications of features that are especially relevant in the context of 3D measurements of human faces. These frameworks have a long-term utility in face analysis, taking into account the anticipated improvements in data collection, data storage, processing speeds, and application s

  5. International Space Station Model Correlation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laible, Michael R.; Fitzpatrick, Kristin; Hodge, Jennifer; Grygier, Michael

    2018-01-01

    This paper summarizes the on-orbit structural dynamic data and the related modal analysis, model validation and correlation performed for the International Space Station (ISS) configuration ISS Stage ULF7, 2015 Dedicated Thruster Firing (DTF). The objective of this analysis is to validate and correlate the analytical models used to calculate the ISS internal dynamic loads and compare the 2015 DTF with previous tests. During the ISS configurations under consideration, on-orbit dynamic measurements were collected using the three main ISS instrumentation systems; Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS) and the Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). The measurements were recorded during several nominal on-orbit DTF tests on August 18, 2015. Experimental modal analyses were performed on the measured data to extract modal parameters including frequency, damping, and mode shape information. Correlation and comparisons between test and analytical frequencies and mode shapes were performed to assess the accuracy of the analytical models for the configurations under consideration. These mode shapes were also compared to earlier tests. Based on the frequency comparisons, the accuracy of the mathematical models is assessed and model refinement recommendations are given. In particular, results of the first fundamental mode will be discussed, nonlinear results will be shown, and accelerometer placement will be assessed.

  6. Cryogenic Fuel Tank Draining Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greer, Donald

    1999-01-01

    One of the technological challenges in designing advanced hypersonic aircraft and the next generation of spacecraft is developing reusable flight-weight cryogenic fuel tanks. As an aid in the design and analysis of these cryogenic tanks, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has been developed specifically for the analysis of flow in a cryogenic fuel tank. This model employs the full set of Navier-Stokes equations, except that viscous dissipation is neglected in the energy equation. An explicit finite difference technique in two-dimensional generalized coordinates, approximated to second-order accuracy in both space and time is used. The stiffness resulting from the low Mach number is resolved by using artificial compressibility. The model simulates the transient, two-dimensional draining of a fuel tank cross section. To calculate the slosh wave dynamics the interface between the ullage gas and liquid fuel is modeled as a free surface. Then, experimental data for free convection inside a horizontal cylinder are compared with model results. Finally, cryogenic tank draining calculations are performed with three different wall heat fluxes to demonstrate the effect of wall heat flux on the internal tank flow field.

  7. Model Based Analysis of Insider Threats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Taolue; Han, Tingting; Kammueller, Florian

    2016-01-01

    In order to detect malicious insider attacks it is important to model and analyse infrastructures and policies of organisations and the insiders acting within them. We extend formal approaches that allow modelling such scenarios by quantitative aspects to enable a precise analysis of security...... designs. Our framework enables evaluating the risks of an insider attack to happen quantitatively. The framework first identifies an insider's intention to perform an inside attack, using Bayesian networks, and in a second phase computes the probability of success for an inside attack by this actor, using...

  8. Urban drainage models - making uncertainty analysis simple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Deletic, Ana

    2012-01-01

    in each measured/observed datapoint; an issue which is commonly overlook in the uncertainty analysis of urban drainage models. This comparison allows the user to intuitively estimate the optimum number of simulations required to conduct uncertainty analyses. The output of the method includes parameter......There is increasing awareness about uncertainties in modelling of urban drainage systems and, as such, many new methods for uncertainty analyses have been developed. Despite this, all available methods have limitations which restrict their widespread application among practitioners. Here...

  9. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  10. Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Alberg Østergaard, Poul

    2015-01-01

    This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out b...... by 11 university and industry partners has improved the basis for decision-making within energy planning and energy scenario making by providing new and improved tools and methods for energy systems analyses.......This editorial introduces the seventh volume of the International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. The volume presents part of the outcome of the project Energy Systems Modelling Research and Analysis (ENSYMORA) funded by the Danish Innovation Fund. The project carried out...

  11. An Adaptive Tradeoff Algorithm for Multi-issue SLA Negotiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Seokho; Sim, Kwang Mong

    Since participants in a Cloud may be independent bodies, mechanisms are necessary for resolving different preferences in leasing Cloud services. Whereas there are currently mechanisms that support service-level agreement negotiation, there is little or no negotiation support for concurrent price and timeslot for Cloud service reservations. For the concurrent price and timeslot negotiation, a tradeoff algorithm to generate and evaluate a proposal which consists of price and timeslot proposal is necessary. The contribution of this work is thus to design an adaptive tradeoff algorithm for multi-issue negotiation mechanism. The tradeoff algorithm referred to as "adaptive burst mode" is especially designed to increase negotiation speed and total utility and to reduce computational load by adaptively generating concurrent set of proposals. The empirical results obtained from simulations carried out using a testbed suggest that due to the concurrent price and timeslot negotiation mechanism with adaptive tradeoff algorithm: 1) both agents achieve the best performance in terms of negotiation speed and utility; 2) the number of evaluations of each proposal is comparatively lower than previous scheme (burst-N).

  12. Has the tradeoff between productivity gains and job growth disappeared?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.D. Cavelaars

    2004-01-01

    textabstractPolicymakers’ efforts to boost trend output growth may be hampered by the presence of a tradeoff between productivity gains and job creation. This paper presents empirical evidence that the negative relationship between productivity growth and employment growth that prevailed in the

  13. A trade-off between length and width in resolution

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Thapen, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 12, č. 5 (2016), s. 1-14 ISSN 1557-2862 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP202/12/G061 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : proof complexity * resolution * trade-off Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http:// toc .nada.kth.se/ articles /v012a005/index.html

  14. Fundamental Tradeoffs among Reliability, Latency and Throughput in Cellular Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soret, Beatriz; Mogensen, Preben; Pedersen, Klaus I.

    2014-01-01

    We address the fundamental tradeoffs among latency, reliability and throughput in a cellular network. The most important elements influencing the KPIs in a 4G network are identified, and the inter-relationships among them is discussed. We use the effective bandwidth and the effective capacity......, in which latency and reliability will be two of the principal KPIs....

  15. A trade-off study revealing nested timescales of constraint

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnants, M.L.; Cox, R.F.A; Hasselman, F.; Bosman, A. M. T.; Van Orden, G.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates human performance in a cyclic Fitts task at three different scales of observation, either in the presence (difficult condition) or in the absence (easy condition) of a speed–accuracy trade-off. At the fastest scale, the harmonicity of the back and forth movements, which

  16. Exploiting partial knowledge for efficient model analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Macedo, Nuno; Cunha, Alcino; Pessoa, Eduardo José Dias

    2017-01-01

    The advancement of constraint solvers and model checkers has enabled the effective analysis of high-level formal specification languages. However, these typically handle a specification in an opaque manner, amalgamating all its constraints in a single monolithic verification task, which often proves to be a performance bottleneck. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a solving strategy that exploits user-provided partial knowledge, namely by assigning symbolic bounds to the problem’s ...

  17. The Roy Adaptation Model and Content Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fawcett, Jacqueline

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explain how the Roy Adaptation Model can be used to guide a combined qualitative and quantitative content analysis of responses to open-ended interviews questions. Responses can be categorized as adaptive or ineffective within the physiological, self-concept, role function, and interdependence modes of adaptation and then tallied to yield an adaptation score. El objetivo del presente estudio consiste en explicar de qué manera se puede utilizar el Modelo de A...

  18. Micromechatronics modeling, analysis, and design with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2009-01-01

    Focusing on recent developments in engineering science, enabling hardware, advanced technologies, and software, Micromechatronics: Modeling, Analysis, and Design with MATLAB®, Second Edition provides clear, comprehensive coverage of mechatronic and electromechanical systems. It applies cornerstone fundamentals to the design of electromechanical systems, covers emerging software and hardware, introduces the rigorous theory, examines the design of high-performance systems, and helps develop problem-solving skills. Along with more streamlined material, this edition adds many new sections to exist

  19. Assessing economic tradeoffs in forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernie Niemi; Ed. Whitelaw

    1999-01-01

    Method is described for assessing the competing demands for forest resources in a forest management plan by addressing economics values, economic impacts, and perceptions of fairness around each demand. Economics trends and forces that shape the dynamic ecosystem-economy relation are developed. The method is demonstrated through an illustrative analysis of a forest-...

  20. 3D space analysis of dental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuah, Joon H.; Ong, Sim Heng; Kondo, Toshiaki; Foong, Kelvin W. C.; Yong, Than F.

    2001-05-01

    Space analysis is an important procedure by orthodontists to determine the amount of space available and required for teeth alignment during treatment planning. Traditional manual methods of space analysis are tedious and often inaccurate. Computer-based space analysis methods that work on 2D images have been reported. However, as the space problems in the dental arch exist in all three planes of space, a full 3D analysis of the problems is necessary. This paper describes a visualization and measurement system that analyses 3D images of dental plaster models. Algorithms were developed to determine dental arches. The system is able to record the depths of the Curve of Spee, and quantify space liabilities arising from a non-planar Curve of Spee, malalignment and overjet. Furthermore, the difference between total arch space available and the space required to arrange the teeth in ideal occlusion can be accurately computed. The system for 3D space analysis of the dental arch is an accurate, comprehensive, rapid and repeatable method of space analysis to facilitate proper orthodontic diagnosis and treatment planning.

  1. Global plastic models for computerized structural analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roche, R.; Hoffmann, A.

    1977-01-01

    Two different global models are used in the CEASEMT system for structural analysis, one for the shells analysis and the other for piping analysis (in plastic or creep field). In shell analysis the generalized stresses choosed are the membrane forces Nsub(ij) and bending (including torsion) moments Msub(ij). There is only one yield condition for a normal (to the middle surface) and no integration along the thickness is required. In piping analysis, the choice of generalized stresses is: bending moments, torsional moments, Hoop stress and tension stress. There is only a set of stresses for a cross section and non integration over the cross section area is needed. Connected strains are axis curvature, torsion, uniform strains. The definition of the yield surface is the most important item. A practical way is to use a diagonal quadratic fonction of the stress components. But the coefficients are depending of the shape of the pipe element, especially for curved segments. Indications will be given on the yield fonctions used. Some examples of applications in structural analysis are added to the text [fr

  2. Modeling and Analysis of Inter-Vehicle Communication: A Stochastic Geometry Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Farooq, Muhammad Junaid

    2015-05-01

    Vehicular communication is the enabling technology for the development of the intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which aims to improve the efficiency and safety of transportation. It can be used for a variety of useful applications such as adaptive traffic control, coordinated braking, emergency messaging, peer-to-peer networking for infotainment services and automatic toll collection etc... Accurate yet simple models for vehicular networks are required in order to understand and optimize their operation. For reliable communication between vehicles, the spectrum access is coordinated via carrier sense multiple access (CSMA) protocol. Existing models either use a simplified network abstraction and access control scheme for analysis or depend on simulation studies. Therefore it is important to develop an analytical model for CSMA coordinated communication between vehicles. In the first part of the thesis, stochastic geometry is exploited to develop a modeling framework for CSMA coordinated inter-vehicle communication (IVC) in a multi-lane highway scenario. The performance of IVC is studied in multi-lane highways taking into account the inter-lane separations and the number of traffic lanes and it is shown that for wide multi-lane highways, the line abstraction model that is widely used in literature loses accuracy and hence the analysis is not reliable. Since the analysis of CSMA in the vehicular setting makes the analysis intractable, an aggressive interference approximation and a conservative interference approximation is proposed for the probability of transmission success. These approximations are tight in the low traffic and high traffic densities respectively. In the subsequent part of the thesis, the developed model is extended to multi-hop IVC because several vehicular applications require going beyond the local communication and efficiently disseminate information across the roads via multi-hops. Two well-known greedy packet forwarding schemes are

  3. Modeling and analysis of advanced binary cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gawlik, K.

    1997-12-31

    A computer model (Cycle Analysis Simulation Tool, CAST) and a methodology have been developed to perform value analysis for small, low- to moderate-temperature binary geothermal power plants. The value analysis method allows for incremental changes in the levelized electricity cost (LEC) to be determined between a baseline plant and a modified plant. Thermodynamic cycle analyses and component sizing are carried out in the model followed by economic analysis which provides LEC results. The emphasis of the present work is on evaluating the effect of mixed working fluids instead of pure fluids on the LEC of a geothermal binary plant that uses a simple Organic Rankine Cycle. Four resources were studied spanning the range of 265{degrees}F to 375{degrees}F. A variety of isobutane and propane based mixtures, in addition to pure fluids, were used as working fluids. This study shows that the use of propane mixtures at a 265{degrees}F resource can reduce the LEC by 24% when compared to a base case value that utilizes commercial isobutane as its working fluid. The cost savings drop to 6% for a 375{degrees}F resource, where an isobutane mixture is favored. Supercritical cycles were found to have the lowest cost at all resources.

  4. Corneal modeling for analysis of photorefractive keratectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della Vecchia, Michael A.; Lamkin-Kennard, Kathleen

    1997-05-01

    Procedurally, excimer photorefractive keratectomy is based on the refractive correction of composite spherical and cylindrical ophthalmic errors of the entire eye. These refractive errors are inputted for correction at the corneal plane and for the properly controlled duration and location of laser energy. Topography is usually taken to correspondingly monitor spherical and cylindrical corneorefractive errors. While a corneal topographer provides surface morphologic information, the keratorefractive photoablation is based on the patient's spherical and cylindrical spectacle correction. Topography is at present not directly part of the procedural deterministic parameters. Examination of how corneal curvature at each of the keratometric reference loci affect the shape of the resultant corneal photoablated surface may enhance the accuracy of the desired correction. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to utilize corneal topography for construction of models depicting pre- and post-operative keratomorphology for analysis of photorefractive keratectomy. Multiple types of models were developed then recreated in optical design software for examination of focal lengths and other optical characteristics. The corneal models were developed using data extracted from the TMS I corneal modeling system (Computed Anatomy, New York, NY). The TMS I does not allow for manipulation of data or differentiation of pre- and post-operative surfaces within its platform, thus models needed to be created for analysis. The data were imported into Matlab where 3D models, surface meshes, and contour plots were created. The data used to generate the models were pre- and post-operative curvatures, heights from the corneal apes, and x-y positions at 6400 locations on the corneal surface. Outlying non-contributory points were eliminated through statistical operations. Pre- and post- operative models were analyzed to obtain the resultant changes in the corneal surfaces during PRK

  5. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  6. Model reduction using a posteriori analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Whiteley, Jonathan P.

    2010-05-01

    Mathematical models in biology and physiology are often represented by large systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations. In many cases, an observed behaviour may be written as a linear functional of the solution of this system of equations. A technique is presented in this study for automatically identifying key terms in the system of equations that are responsible for a given linear functional of the solution. This technique is underpinned by ideas drawn from a posteriori error analysis. This concept has been used in finite element analysis to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where a fine computational mesh should be used to ensure accuracy of the numerical solution. We use this concept to identify regions of the computational domain and components of the solution where accurate representation of the mathematical model is required for accuracy of the functional of interest. The technique presented is demonstrated by application to a model problem, and then to automatically deduce known results from a cell-level cardiac electrophysiology model. © 2010 Elsevier Inc.

  7. Human eyeball model reconstruction and quantitative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Qi; Wei, Qi

    2014-01-01

    Determining shape of the eyeball is important to diagnose eyeball disease like myopia. In this paper, we present an automatic approach to precisely reconstruct three dimensional geometric shape of eyeball from MR Images. The model development pipeline involved image segmentation, registration, B-Spline surface fitting and subdivision surface fitting, neither of which required manual interaction. From the high resolution resultant models, geometric characteristics of the eyeball can be accurately quantified and analyzed. In addition to the eight metrics commonly used by existing studies, we proposed two novel metrics, Gaussian Curvature Analysis and Sphere Distance Deviation, to quantify the cornea shape and the whole eyeball surface respectively. The experiment results showed that the reconstructed eyeball models accurately represent the complex morphology of the eye. The ten metrics parameterize the eyeball among different subjects, which can potentially be used for eye disease diagnosis.

  8. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  9. Modeling Analysis For Grout Hopper Waste Tank

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.

    2012-01-01

    The Saltstone facility at Savannah River Site (SRS) has a grout hopper tank to provide agitator stirring of the Saltstone feed materials. The tank has about 300 gallon capacity to provide a larger working volume for the grout nuclear waste slurry to be held in case of a process upset, and it is equipped with a mechanical agitator, which is intended to keep the grout in motion and agitated so that it won't start to set up. The primary objective of the work was to evaluate the flow performance for mechanical agitators to prevent vortex pull-through for an adequate stirring of the feed materials and to estimate an agitator speed which provides acceptable flow performance with a 45 o pitched four-blade agitator. In addition, the power consumption required for the agitator operation was estimated. The modeling calculations were performed by taking two steps of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling approach. As a first step, a simple single-stage agitator model with 45 o pitched propeller blades was developed for the initial scoping analysis of the flow pattern behaviors for a range of different operating conditions. Based on the initial phase-1 results, the phase-2 model with a two-stage agitator was developed for the final performance evaluations. A series of sensitivity calculations for different designs of agitators and operating conditions have been performed to investigate the impact of key parameters on the grout hydraulic performance in a 300-gallon hopper tank. For the analysis, viscous shear was modeled by using the Bingham plastic approximation. Steady state analyses with a two-equation turbulence model were performed. All analyses were based on three-dimensional results. Recommended operational guidance was developed by using the basic concept that local shear rate profiles and flow patterns can be used as a measure of hydraulic performance and spatial stirring. Flow patterns were estimated by a Lagrangian integration technique along the flow paths

  10. Modeling and Hazard Analysis Using STPA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishimatsu, Takuto; Leveson, Nancy; Thomas, John; Katahira, Masa; Miyamoto, Yuko; Nakao, Haruka

    2010-09-01

    A joint research project between MIT and JAXA/JAMSS is investigating the application of a new hazard analysis to the system and software in the HTV. Traditional hazard analysis focuses on component failures but software does not fail in this way. Software most often contributes to accidents by commanding the spacecraft into an unsafe state(e.g., turning off the descent engines prematurely) or by not issuing required commands. That makes the standard hazard analysis techniques of limited usefulness on software-intensive systems, which describes most spacecraft built today. STPA is a new hazard analysis technique based on systems theory rather than reliability theory. It treats safety as a control problem rather than a failure problem. The goal of STPA, which is to create a set of scenarios that can lead to a hazard, is the same as FTA but STPA includes a broader set of potential scenarios including those in which no failures occur but the problems arise due to unsafe and unintended interactions among the system components. STPA also provides more guidance to the analysts that traditional fault tree analysis. Functional control diagrams are used to guide the analysis. In addition, JAXA uses a model-based system engineering development environment(created originally by Leveson and called SpecTRM) which also assists in the hazard analysis. One of the advantages of STPA is that it can be applied early in the system engineering and development process in a safety-driven design process where hazard analysis drives the design decisions rather than waiting until reviews identify problems that are then costly or difficult to fix. It can also be applied in an after-the-fact analysis and hazard assessment, which is what we did in this case study. This paper describes the experimental application of STPA to the JAXA HTV in order to determine the feasibility and usefulness of the new hazard analysis technique. Because the HTV was originally developed using fault tree analysis

  11. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance.

  12. Trade-off Analysis of Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuna, G.; Das, R.

    2017-09-01

    In the last couple of decades, Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks (UASNs) were started to be used for various commercial and non-commercial purposes. However, in underwater environments, there are some specific inherent constraints, such as high bit error rate, variable and large propagation delay, limited bandwidth capacity, and short-range communications, which severely degrade the performance of UASNs and limit the lifetime of underwater sensor nodes as well. Therefore, proving reliability of UASN applications poses a challenge. In this study, we try to balance energy consumption of underwater acoustic sensor networks and minimize end-to-end delay using an efficient node placement strategy. Our simulation results reveal that if the number of hops is reduced, energy consumption can be reduced. However, this increases end-to-end delay. Hence, application-specific requirements must be taken into consideration when determining a strategy for node deployment.

  13. A pattern framework for software quality assessment and tradeoff analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Folmer, Eelke; Boscht, Jan

    The earliest design decisions often have a significant impact on software quality and are the most costly to revoke. One of the challenges in architecture design is to reduce the frequency of retrofit problems in software designs; not being able to improve the quality of a system cost effectively, a

  14. Gentrification and models for real estate analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Brusa

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This research propose a deep analysis of Milanese real estate market, based on data supplied by three real estate organizations; gentrification appears in some neighborhoods, such as Tortona, Porta Genova, Bovisa, Isola Garibaldi: the latest is the subject of the final analysis, by surveying of physical and social state of the area. The survey takes place in two periods (2003 and 2009 to compare the evolution of gentrification. The results of surveys has been employed in a simulation by multi-agent system model, to foresee long term evolution of the phenomenon. These neighborhood micro-indicators allow to put in evidence actual trends, conditioning a local real estate market, which can translate themselves in phenomena such as gentrification. In present analysis, the employ of cellular automata models applied to a neighborhood in Milan (Isola Garibaldi produced the dynamic simulation of gentrification trend during a very long time: the cyclical phenomenon (one loop holds a period of twenty – thirty years appears sometimes during a theoretical time of 100 – 120 – 150 years. Simulation of long period scenarios by multi-agent systems and cellular automata provides estimator with powerful tool, without limits in implementing it, able to support him in appraisal judge. It stands also to reason that such a tool can sustain urban planning and related evaluation processes.

  15. Trade-off results and preliminary designs of Near-Term Hybrid Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, J. J.

    1980-01-01

    Phase I of the Near-Term Hybrid Vehicle Program involved the development of preliminary designs of electric/heat engine hybrid passenger vehicles. The preliminary designs were developed on the basis of mission analysis, performance specification, and design trade-off studies conducted independently by four contractors. THe resulting designs involve parallel hybrid (heat engine/electric) propulsion systems with significant variation in component selection, power train layout, and control strategy. Each of the four designs is projected by its developer as having the potential to substitute electrical energy for 40% to 70% of the petroleum fuel consumed annually by its conventional counterpart.

  16. Modelling the economic trade-offs of irrigation pipeline investments ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-10-04

    Oct 4, 2016 ... results were obtained from the methods the following critical assumptions were ... system design, irrigation water management and the use of alternative ... to provide decision support regarding pipeline investments. SWIP-E ...

  17. Software cost/resource modeling: Software quality tradeoff measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A conceptual framework for treating software quality from a total system perspective is developed. Examples are given to show how system quality objectives may be allocated to hardware and software; to illustrate trades among quality factors, both hardware and software, to achieve system performance objectives; and to illustrate the impact of certain design choices on software functionality.

  18. Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baggaley, R. F.; Irvine, M. A.; Leber, W.; Cambiano, V.; Figueroa, J.; McMullen, H.; Anderson, J.; Santos, A. C.; Terris-Prestholt, F.; Miners, A.; Hollingsworth, T. D.; Griffiths, C. J.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. METHODS: We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London (UK),...

  19. Cost-effectiveness of screening for HIV in primary care: a health economics modelling analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Baggaley, Rebecca F; Irvine, Michael A; Leber, Werner; Cambiano, Valentina; Figueroa, Jose; McMullen, Heather; Anderson, Jane; Santos, Andreia C; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Miners, Alec; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Griffiths, Chris J

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background Early HIV diagnosis reduces morbidity, mortality, the probability of onward transmission, and their associated costs, but might increase cost because of earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigated this trade-off by estimating the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in primary care. Methods We modelled the effect of the four-times higher diagnosis rate observed in the intervention arm of the RHIVA2 randomised controlled trial done in Hackney, London...

  20. Preference Evaluation System for Construction Products Using QFD-TOPSIS Logic by Considering Trade-Off Technical Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaeho Cho

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the feasibility of quality function deployment, technique for the order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (QFD-TOPSIS in presenting user preferences for multiple alternatives, such as construction technologies, products, systems, and design solutions, with trade-off technical characteristics (TC. The original QFD as house of quality (HOQ defines the requirements and features as subjective matrix relations, which cause interpretations to vary across users and limit its industrial applications. QFD-TOPSIS is a new model that combines the benefits of QFD with those of TOPSIS, maintains the subjectivity and objectivity evaluation of the technical characteristics (TC, and rates the preferences by considering users’ individual propensity for requirements. In addition, QFD-TOPSIS rates the preferences through the reciprocal compensation effects of trade-off TC and filters unsuitable alternatives with predefined restrictive conditions. Trade-off refers to conflicts and/or contradictions between attributes, often arising in multicriteria decision-making. Users or project stakeholder groups define the priorities of trade-off TC that directly influence product preferences and decision-making. In the present study, we have developed a Web system based on the QFD-TOPSIS logic and tested its operation to verify its industrial applicability and viability for automatic quality evaluation.

  1. On the Cost-vs-Quality Tradeoff in Make-or-Buy Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Fredrik

    2010-01-01

    The make-or-buy decision is analyzed in a simple two-task principal-agent model. There is a cost-saving/quality tradeoff in effort provision. The principal faces a dichotomous choice between weak ("make") and strong ("buy") cost-saving incentives for the agent; the dichotomy is due to an incomplete-contracting limitation necessitating that one party be residual claimant. Choosing "buy" rather than "make" leads to higher cost-saving effort and -- in a plausible "main case" -- to lower quality ...

  2. Energy/Reliability Trade-offs in Fault-Tolerant Event-Triggered Distributed Embedded Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gan, Junhe; Gruian, Flavius; Pop, Paul

    2011-01-01

    task, such that transient faults are tolerated, the timing constraints of the application are satisfied, and the energy consumed is minimized. Tasks are scheduled using fixed-priority preemptive scheduling, while replication is used for recovery from multiple transient faults. Addressing energy...... and reliability simultaneously is especially challenging, since lowering the voltage to reduce the energy consumption has been shown to increase the transient fault rate. We presented a Tabu Search-based approach which uses an energy/reliability trade-off model to find reliable and schedulable implementations...

  3. On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides new evidence on the positive risk-return tradeoff in the Thai stock market using monthly data. An AR(p)-GARCH-in-mean model is applied to the data from January 1981 to December 2009. Since stock prices and dividend series are not cointegrated, the excess returns are separately calculated as capital gain and dividend excess returns. By incorporating the dummy variables that capture the impact of the 1987 global stock market crash and the Asian 1997 financial crisis in th...

  4. Dynamical system analysis of interacting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.

    2018-01-01

    We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.

  5. Analysis of pilgrim dark energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Jawad, Abdul [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2013-04-15

    The proposal of pilgrim dark energy is based on the idea that phantom dark energy possesses enough resistive force to preclude black hole formation. We work on this proposal by choosing an interacting framework with cold dark matter and three cutoffs such as Hubble as well as event horizon and conformal age of the universe. We present a graphical analysis and focus our study on the pilgrim dark energy as well as interacting parameters. It is found that these parameters play an effective role on the equation of state parameter for exploring the phantom region of the universe. We also make the analysis of {omega}-{omega}' and point out freezing region in the {omega}-{omega}' plane. Finally, it turns out that the {Lambda}CDM is achieved in the statefinders plane for all models. (orig.)

  6. Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jae H.; Skelton, Robert E.

    1990-01-01

    Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

  7. Plasma brake model for preliminary mission analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orsini, Leonardo; Niccolai, Lorenzo; Mengali, Giovanni; Quarta, Alessandro A.

    2018-03-01

    Plasma brake is an innovative propellantless propulsion system concept that exploits the Coulomb collisions between a charged tether and the ions in the surrounding environment (typically, the ionosphere) to generate an electrostatic force orthogonal to the tether direction. Previous studies on the plasma brake effect have emphasized the existence of a number of different parameters necessary to obtain an accurate description of the propulsive acceleration from a physical viewpoint. The aim of this work is to discuss an analytical model capable of estimating, with the accuracy required by a preliminary mission analysis, the performance of a spacecraft equipped with a plasma brake in a (near-circular) low Earth orbit. The simplified mathematical model is first validated through numerical simulations, and is then used to evaluate the plasma brake performance in some typical mission scenarios, in order to quantify the influence of the system parameters on the mission performance index.

  8. Analysis of a model race car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletta, Vincent P.; Evans, Jonathan

    2008-10-01

    We analyze the motion of a gravity powered model race car on a downhill track of variable slope. Using a simple algebraic function to approximate the height of the track as a function of the distance along the track, and taking account of the rotational energy of the wheels, rolling friction, and air resistance, we obtain analytic expressions for the velocity and time of the car as functions of the distance traveled along the track. Photogates are used to measure the time at selected points along the track, and the measured values are in excellent agreement with the values predicted from theory. The design and analysis of model race cars provides a good application of principles of mechanics and suggests interesting projects for classes in introductory and intermediate mechanics.

  9. Stability Analysis of the Embankment Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.S. Gopalakrishna

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In analysis of embankment model affected by dynamic force, employment of shaking table is a scientific way in assessment of earthquake behavior. This work focused on saturated loose sandy foundation and enbankment. The results generated through the pore pressure sensors indicated pore water pressure playing main role in creation of liquefaction and stability of the system, and also revealed deformation, settlement, liquefaction intensity and time stability of system in direct correlation with the strength and characteristics of soil. One of the economical methods in stabilization of soil foundation is improvement of some part soil foundation.

  10. Non standard analysis, polymer models, quantum fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albeverio, S.

    1984-01-01

    We give an elementary introduction to non standard analysis and its applications to the theory of stochastic processes. This is based on a joint book with J.E. Fenstad, R. Hoeegh-Krohn and T. Lindstroeem. In particular we give a discussion of an hyperfinite theory of Dirichlet forms with applications to the study of the Hamiltonian for a quantum mechanical particle in the potential created by a polymer. We also discuss new results on the existence of attractive polymer measures in dimension d 1 2 phi 2 2 )sub(d)-model of interacting quantum fields. (orig.)

  11. Constraints based analysis of extended cybernetic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandli, Aravinda R; Venkatesh, Kareenhalli V; Modak, Jayant M

    2015-11-01

    The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Fluctuation microscopy analysis of amorphous silicon models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, J.M., E-mail: jmgibson@fsu.edu [Northeastern University, Department of Physics, Boston MA 02115 (United States); FAMU/FSU Joint College of Engineering, 225 Pottsdamer Street, Tallahassee, FL 32310 (United States); Treacy, M.M.J. [Arizona State University, Department of Physics, Tempe AZ 85287 (United States)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • Studied competing computer models for amorphous silicon and simulated fluctuation microscopy data. • Show that only paracrystalline/random network composite can fit published data. • Specifically show that pure random network or random network with void models do not fit available data. • Identify a new means to measure volume fraction of ordered material. • Identify unreported limitations of the Debye model for simulating fluctuation microscopy data. - Abstract: Using computer-generated models we discuss the use of fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) to identify the structure of amorphous silicon. We show that a combination of variable resolution FEM to measure the correlation length, with correlograph analysis to obtain the structural motif, can pin down structural correlations. We introduce the method of correlograph variance as a promising means of independently measuring the volume fraction of a paracrystalline composite. From comparisons with published data, we affirm that only a composite material of paracrystalline and continuous random network that is substantially paracrystalline could explain the existing experimental data, and point the way to more precise measurements on amorphous semiconductors. The results are of general interest for other classes of disordered materials.

  13. Fluctuation microscopy analysis of amorphous silicon models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, J.M.; Treacy, M.M.J.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Studied competing computer models for amorphous silicon and simulated fluctuation microscopy data. • Show that only paracrystalline/random network composite can fit published data. • Specifically show that pure random network or random network with void models do not fit available data. • Identify a new means to measure volume fraction of ordered material. • Identify unreported limitations of the Debye model for simulating fluctuation microscopy data. - Abstract: Using computer-generated models we discuss the use of fluctuation electron microscopy (FEM) to identify the structure of amorphous silicon. We show that a combination of variable resolution FEM to measure the correlation length, with correlograph analysis to obtain the structural motif, can pin down structural correlations. We introduce the method of correlograph variance as a promising means of independently measuring the volume fraction of a paracrystalline composite. From comparisons with published data, we affirm that only a composite material of paracrystalline and continuous random network that is substantially paracrystalline could explain the existing experimental data, and point the way to more precise measurements on amorphous semiconductors. The results are of general interest for other classes of disordered materials.

  14. Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeff, Harrison B.; Kasprzyk, Joseph R.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

    2014-06-01

    Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These "portfolio"-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g., contingency funds and index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable interutility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.

  15. Modeling and analysis of a resonant nanosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Scott L.

    The majority of investigations into nanoelectromechanical resonators focus on a single area of the resonator's function. This focus varies from the development of a model for a beam's vibration, to the modeling of electrostatic forces, to a qualitative explanation of experimentally-obtained currents. Despite these efforts, there remains a gap between these works, and the level of sophistication needed to truly design nanoresonant systems for efficient commercial use. Towards this end, a comprehensive system model for both a nanobeam resonator and its related experimental setup is proposed. Furthermore, a simulation arrangement is suggested as a method for facilitating the study of the system-level behavior of these devices in a variety of cases that could not be easily obtained experimentally or analytically. The dynamics driving the nanoresonator's motion, as well as the electrical interactions influencing the forcing and output of the system, are modeled, experimentally validated, and studied. The model seeks to develop both a simple circuit representation of the nanoresonator, and to create a mathematical system that can be used to predict and interpret the observed behavior. Due to the assumptions used to simplify the model to a point of reasonable comprehension, the model is most accurate for small beam deflections near the first eigenmode of the beam. The process and results of an experimental investigation are documented, and compared with a circuit simulation modeling the full test system. The comparison qualitatively proves the functionality of the model, while a numerical analysis serves to validate the functionality and setup of the circuit simulation. The use of the simulation enables a much broader investigation of both the electrical behavior and the physical device's dynamics. It is used to complement an assessment of the tuning behavior of the system's linear natural frequency by demonstrating the tuning behavior of the full nonlinear response. The

  16. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanki, D.R.; Rahman, S.; Dang, V.N.; Zerkak, O.

    2017-01-01

    The coupling of plant simulation models and stochastic models representing failure events in Dynamic Event Trees (DET) is a framework used to model the dynamic interactions among physical processes, equipment failures, and operator responses. The integration of physical and stochastic models may additionally enhance the treatment of uncertainties. Probabilistic Safety Assessments as currently implemented propagate the (epistemic) uncertainties in failure probabilities, rates, and frequencies; while the uncertainties in the physical model (parameters) are not propagated. The coupling of deterministic (physical) and probabilistic models in integrated simulations such as DET allows both types of uncertainties to be considered. However, integrated accident simulations with epistemic uncertainties will challenge even today's high performance computing infrastructure, especially for simulations of inherently complex nuclear or chemical plants. Conversely, intentionally limiting computations for practical reasons would compromise accuracy of results. This work investigates how to tradeoff accuracy and computations to quantify risk in light of both uncertainties and accident dynamics. A simple depleting tank problem that can be solved analytically is considered to examine the adequacy of a discrete DET approach. The results show that optimal allocation of computational resources between epistemic and aleatory calculations by means of convergence studies ensures accuracy within a limited budget. - Highlights: • Accident simulations considering uncertainties require intensive computations. • Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations is a challenge. • Optimal allocation between epistemic & aleatory computations ensures the tradeoff. • Online convergence gives an early indication of computational requirements. • Uncertainty propagation in DDET is examined on a tank problem solved analytically.

  17. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-01

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  18. Modelling and analysis of global coal markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes

    2013-01-17

    The thesis comprises four interrelated essays featuring modelling and analysis of coal markets. Each of the four essays has a dedicated chapter in this thesis. Chapters 2 to 4 have, from a topical perspective, a backward-looking focus and deal with explaining recent market outcomes in the international coal trade. The findings of those essays may serve as guidance for assessing current coal market outcomes as well as expected market outcomes in the near to medium-term future. Chapter 5 has a forward-looking focus and builds a bridge between explaining recent market outcomes and projecting long-term market equilibria. Chapter 2, Strategic Behaviour in International Metallurgical Coal Markets, deals with market conduct of large exporters in the market of coals used in steel-making in the period 2008 to 2010. In this essay I analyse whether prices and trade-flows in the international market for metallurgical coals were subject to non-competitive conduct in the period 2008 to 2010. To do so, I develop mathematical programming models - a Stackelberg model, two varieties of a Cournot model, and a perfect competition model - for computing spatial equilibria in international resource markets. Results are analysed with various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. The results show that real market equilibria cannot be reproduced with a competitive model. However, real market outcomes can be accurately simulated with the non-competitive models, suggesting that market equilibria in the international metallurgical coal trade were subject to the strategic behaviour of coal exporters. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 deal with market power issues in the steam coal trade in the period 2006 to 2008. Steam coals are typically used to produce steam either for electricity generation or for heating purposes. In Chapter 3 we analyse market behaviour of key exporting countries in the steam coal trade. This chapter features the essay Market Structure Scenarios in

  19. Trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seveso, Luigi; Paris, Matteo G. A.

    2018-03-01

    We address the trade-off between information and disturbance in qubit thermometry from the perspective of quantum estimation theory. Given a quantum measurement, we quantify information via the Fisher information of the measurement and disturbance via four different figures of merit, which capture different aspects (statistical, thermodynamical, geometrical) of the trade-off. For each disturbance measure, the efficient measurements, i.e., the measurements that introduce a disturbance not greater than any other measurement extracting the same amount of information, are determined explicitly. The family of efficient measurements varies with the choice of the disturbance measure. On the other hand, commutativity between the elements of the probability operator-valued measure (POVM) and the equilibrium state of the thermometer is a necessary condition for efficiency with respect to any figure of disturbance.

  20. Energy security and climate change protection: Complementarity or tradeoff?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Stephen P.A.; Huntington, Hillard G.

    2008-01-01

    Energy security and climate change protection have risen to the forefront of energy policy - linked in time and a perception that both goals can be achieved through the same or similar policies. Although such complementarity can exist for individual technologies, policymakers face a tradeoff between these two policy objectives. The tradeoff arises when policymakers choose the mix of individual technologies with which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security. Optimal policy is achieved when the cost of the additional use of each technology equals the value of the additional energy security and reduction in greenhouse gas emission that it provides. Such an approach may draw more heavily on conventional technologies that provide benefits in only one dimension than on more costly technologies that both increase energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (author)

  1. On contact modelling in isogeometric analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, R. P. R.; Adetoro, O. B.

    2017-11-01

    IsoGeometric Analysis (IGA) has proved to be a reliable numerical tool for the simulation of structural behaviour and fluid mechanics. The main reasons for this popularity are essentially due to: (i) the possibility of using higher order polynomials for the basis functions; (ii) the high convergence rates possible to achieve; (iii) the possibility to operate directly on CAD geometry without the need to resort to a mesh of elements. The major drawback of IGA is the non-interpolatory characteristic of the basis functions, which adds a difficulty in handling essential boundary conditions and makes it particularly challenging for contact analysis. In this work, the IGA is expanded to include frictionless contact procedures for sheet metal forming analyses. Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines (NURBS) are going to be used for the modelling of rigid tools as well as for the modelling of the deformable blank sheet. The contact methods developed are based on a two-step contact search scheme, where during the first step a global search algorithm is used for the allocation of contact knots into potential contact faces and a second (local) contact search scheme where point inversion techniques are used for the calculation of the contact penetration gap. For completeness, elastoplastic procedures are also included for a proper description of the entire IGA of sheet metal forming processes.

  2. Modeling human reliability analysis using MIDAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, R. L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper documents current efforts to infuse human reliability analysis (HRA) into human performance simulation. The Idaho National Laboratory is teamed with NASA Ames Research Center to bridge the SPAR-H HRA method with NASA's Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) for use in simulating and modeling the human contribution to risk in nuclear power plant control room operations. It is anticipated that the union of MIDAS and SPAR-H will pave the path for cost-effective, timely, and valid simulated control room operators for studying current and next generation control room configurations. This paper highlights considerations for creating the dynamic HRA framework necessary for simulation, including event dependency and granularity. This paper also highlights how the SPAR-H performance shaping factors can be modeled in MIDAS across static, dynamic, and initiator conditions common to control room scenarios. This paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the workload factors currently in MIDAS and the performance shaping factors in SPAR-H. (authors)

  3. ANALYSIS MODEL FOR RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BURJA CAMELIA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available At the microeconomic level, the appreciation of the capitals’ profitability is a very complex action which is ofinterest for stakeholders. This study has as main purpose to extend the traditional analysis model for the capitals’profitability, based on the ratio “Return on capital employed”. In line with it the objectives of this work aim theidentification of factors that exert an influence on the capital’s profitability utilized by a company and the measurementof their contribution in the manifestation of the phenomenon. The proposed analysis model is validated on the use caseof a representative company from the agricultural sector. The results obtained reveal that in a company there are somefactors which can act positively on the capitals’ profitability: capital turnover, sales efficiency, increase the share ofsales in the total revenues, improvement of the expenses’ efficiency. The findings are useful both for the decisionmakingfactors in substantiating the economic strategies and for the capital owners who are interested in efficiency oftheir investments.

  4. Ecosystem service trade-offs and their influencing factors: A case study in the Loess Plateau of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Qiang; Zhao, Wenwu; Fu, Bojie; Ding, Jingyi; Wang, Shuai

    2017-12-31

    Soil erosion control (SEC), carbon sequestration (CAS), and soil moisture (SMO) strongly interact in the semi-arid Loess Plateau. Since SMO has supportive effects on SEC and CAS, it can be considered as ecosystem service (ES), and there is an immediate need to coordinate the relationships among these ecosystem services (ESs) to promote the sustainability of vegetation recovery. In this study, we quantified the ESs, ES trade-offs, and the environmental factors in 151 sample plots in the Ansai watershed, and we used a redundancy analysis (RDA) to clarify the effects of environmental factors on these ESs and their trade-offs. The results were as follows: (1) the general trend in the SEC of vegetation types was Robinia pseudoacacia (CH)>native grass (NG)>small arbor (ST)>Hippophae rhamnoides (SJ)>artificial grass (AG)>Caragana korshinskii (NT)>apple orchard (GY)>crop (CP); the CAS trend was CH>SJ>NT>AG>CP>ST>GY>NG; and the SMO trend was CP>NG>GY>AG>SJ>ST>CH>NT. (2) For SEC-SMO trade-offs, the influence of vegetation type, altitude, silt and sand composition was dominant. The arrangement of NG, AG, and SJ could decrease the extent of the trade-offs. (3) For CAS-SMO trade-offs, vegetation coverage and types were the dominant factors, but the effects were not complex. The extent of these trade-offs was lowest for NT, and that for SJ was the second lowest. (4) Considering the relationships among the three ESs, SJ was the most appropriate afforestation plant. Combing the vegetation types, slope position, slope gradient, and soil properties could regulate these ES relationships. The dominant factors influencing ES trade-offs varied among the different soil layers, so we must consider the corresponding influencing factors to regulate ESs. Moreover, manual management measures were also important for coordinating the ES relationships. Our research provides a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the relationships among ESs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All

  5. Evaluating trade-offs of a large, infrequent sediment diversion for restoration of a forested wetland in the Mississippi delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Jeffrey S.; Day, John W.; D'Elia, Christopher F.; Wiegman, Adrian R. H.; Willson, Clinton S.; Caffey, Rex H.; Shaffer, Gary P.; Lane, Robert R.; Batker, David

    2018-04-01

    Flood control levees cut off the supply of sediment to Mississippi delta coastal wetlands, and contribute to putting much of the delta on a trajectory for continued submergence in the 21st century. River sediment diversions have been proposed as a method to provide a sustainable supply of sediment to the delta, but the frequency and magnitude of these diversions needs further assessment. Previous studies suggested operating river sediment diversions based on the size and frequency of natural crevasse events, which were large (>5000 m3/s) and infrequent (active builds on these previous works by quantitatively assessing tradeoffs for a large, infrequent diversion into the forested wetlands of the Maurepas swamp. Land building was estimated for several diversion sizes and years inactive using a delta progradation model. A benefit-cost analysis (BCA) combined model land building results with an ecosystem service valuation and estimated costs. Results demonstrated that land building is proportional to diversion size and inversely proportional to years inactive. Because benefits were assumed to scale linearly with land gain, and costs increase with diversion size, there are disadvantages to operating large diversions less often, compared to smaller diversions more often for the immediate project area. Literature suggests that infrequent operation would provide additional gains (through increased benefits and reduced ecosystem service costs) to the broader Lake Maurepas-Pontchartrain-Borgne ecosystem. Future research should incorporate these additional effects into this type of BCA, to see if this changes the outcome for large, infrequent diversions.

  6. Opposition multiple objective symbiotic organisms search (OMOSOS for time, cost, quality and work continuity tradeoff in repetitive projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duc-Hoc Tran

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Construction managers often face with projects containing multiple units wherein activities repeat from unit to unit. Therefore effective resource management is crucial in terms of project duration, cost and quality. Accordingly, researchers have developed several models to aid planners in developing practical and near-optimal schedules for repetitive projects. Despite their undeniable benefits, such models lack the ability of pure simultaneous optimization because existing methodologies optimize the schedule with respect to a single factor, to achieve minimum duration, total cost, resource work breaks or various combinations, respectively. This study introduces a novel approach called “opposition multiple objective symbiotic organisms search” (OMOSOS for scheduling repetitive projects. The proposed algorithm used an opposition-based learning technique for population initialization and for generation jumping. Further, this study integrated a scheduling module (M1 to determine all project objectives including time, cost, quality and interruption. The proposed algorithm was implemented on two application examples in order to demonstrate its capabilities in optimizing the scheduling of repetitive construction projects. The results indicate that the OMOSOS approach is a powerful optimization technique and can assist project managers in selecting appropriate plan for project. Keywords: Symbiotic organisms search, Multi-objective analysis, Resource tradeoff, Schedules, Repetitive

  7. A new approach to the tradeoff between quality and accessibility of health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanke, Marit A C; Ikkersheim, David E

    2012-05-01

    Quality of care is associated with patient volume. Regionalization of care is therefore one of the approaches that is suited to improve quality of care. A disadvantage of regionalization is that the accessibility of the facilities can decrease. By investigating the tradeoff between quality and accessibility it is possible to determine the optimal amount of treatment locations in a health care system. In this article we present a new model to quantitatively 'solve' this tradeoff. We use the condition breast cancer in the Netherlands as an example. We calculated the expected quality gains in Quality Adjusted Lifetime Years (QALY's) due to stepwise regionalization using 'volume-outcome' literature for breast cancer. Decreased accessibility was operationalized as increased (travel) costs due to regionalization by using demographic data, drive-time information, and the national median income. The total sum of the quality and accessibility function determines the optimum range of treatment locations for this particular condition, given the 'volume-quality' relationship and Dutch demographics and geography. Currently, 94 locations offer breast cancer treatment in the Netherlands. Our model estimates that the optimum range of treatment locations for this particular condition in the Netherlands varies from 15 locations to 44 locations. Our study shows that the Dutch society would benefit from regionalization of breast cancer care as possible quality gains outweigh heightened travel costs. In addition, this model can be used for other medical conditions and in other countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Visualising Pareto-optimal trade-offs helps move beyond monetary-only criteria for water management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

    2014-05-01

    Water related eco-system services are important to the livelihoods of the poorest sectors of society in developing countries. Degradation or loss of these services can increase the vulnerability of people decreasing their capacity to support themselves. New approaches to help guide water resources management decisions are needed which account for the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services. In case studies from Brazil and Kenya we demonstrate the capability of many objective Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis to help decision makers balance economic and non-market benefits from the management of existing multi-reservoir systems. A multi-criteria search algorithm is coupled to a water resources management simulator of each basin to generate a set of Pareto-approximate trade-offs representing the best case management decisions. In both cases, volume dependent reservoir release rules are the management decisions being optimised. In the Kenyan case we further assess the impacts of proposed irrigation investments, and how the possibility of new investments impacts the system's trade-offs. During the multi-criteria search (optimisation), performance of different sets of management decisions (policies) is assessed against case-specific objective functions representing provision of water supply and irrigation, hydropower generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Results are visualised as trade-off surfaces to help decision makers understand the impacts of different policies on a broad range of stakeholders and to assist in decision-making. These case studies show how the approach can reveal unexpected opportunities for win-win solutions, and quantify the trade-offs between investing to increase agricultural revenue and negative impacts on protected ecosystems which support rural livelihoods.

  9. DECISION USEFULNESS: TRADE-OFF ANTARA RELIABILITY DAN RELEVANCE

    OpenAIRE

    AGUS INDRA TENAYA

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to search for trade-off solution betweenreliability and relevance. Approach that can be used to have more reliable andrelevant financial statement is decision usefulness. This approach suggests thatfinancial statement must be useful to become a base of investors’ decision making.The change function of financial statement from just a tool of responsibility tobecome a tool of decision making has caused historical cost-based financialstatement could not be used to ...

  10. Photovoltaic subsystem optimization and design tradeoff study. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stolte, W.J.

    1982-03-01

    Tradeoffs and subsystem choices are examined in photovoltaic array subfield design, power-conditioning sizing and selection, roof- and ground-mounted structure installation, energy loss, operating voltage, power conditioning cost, and subfield size. Line- and self-commutated power conditioning options are analyzed to determine the most cost-effective technology in the megawatt power range. Methods for reducing field installation of flat panels and roof mounting of intermediate load centers are discussed, including the cost of retrofit installations.

  11. Sibling Competition & Growth Tradeoffs. Biological vs. Statistical Significance

    OpenAIRE

    Kramer, Karen L.; Veile, Amanda; Ot?rola-Castillo, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Early childhood growth has many downstream effects on future health and reproduction and is an important measure of offspring quality. While a tradeoff between family size and child growth outcomes is theoretically predicted in high-fertility societies, empirical evidence is mixed. This is often attributed to phenotypic variation in parental condition. However, inconsistent study results may also arise because family size confounds the potentially differential effects that older and younger s...

  12. Data analysis and source modelling for LISA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang, Yu

    2014-01-01

    The gravitational waves are one of the most important predictions in general relativity. Besides of the directly proof of the existence of GWs, there are already several ground based detectors (such as LIGO, GEO, etc) and the planed future space mission (such as: LISA) which are aim to detect the GWs directly. GW contain a large amount of information of its source, extracting these information can help us dig out the physical property of the source, even open a new window for understanding the Universe. Hence, GW data analysis will be a challenging task in seeking the GWs. In this thesis, I present two works about the data analysis for LISA. In the first work, we introduce an extended multimodal genetic algorithm which utilizes the properties of the signal and the detector response function to analyze the data from the third round of mock LISA data challenge. We have found all five sources present in the data and recovered the coalescence time, chirp mass, mass ratio and sky location with reasonable accuracy. As for the orbital angular momentum and two spins of the Black Holes, we have found a large number of widely separated modes in the parameter space with similar maximum likelihood values. The performance of this method is comparable, if not better, to already existing algorithms. In the second work, we introduce an new phenomenological waveform model for the extreme mass ratio inspiral system. This waveform consists of a set of harmonics with constant amplitude and slowly evolving phase which we decompose in a Taylor series. We use these phenomenological templates to detect the signal in the simulated data, and then, assuming a particular EMRI model, estimate the physical parameters of the binary with high precision. The results show that our phenomenological waveform is very feasible in the data analysis of EMRI signal.

  13. Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1995-01-01

    Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years

  14. Growth models and analysis of development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathur, G

    1979-10-01

    This paper deals with remnants of neoclassical elements in Keynesian and post-Keynesian thought, and attempts to demonstrate that the elimination of these elements from our modes of thinking would not impoverish economic analysis as a means of solving real problems. In the Keynesian analysis the causation from investment to savings is exhibited in terms of income determination. When put in terms of a capital-theory model, the vector of savings is represented in two ways: real savings and counterpart real savings. The former coincides with the investment vector and the latter with the vector of consumption goods foregone for diverting resources towards equipment making. Thus the Keynesian causation in capital theory terms makes the concept of national savings as an independent variable redudant. The Robinsonian causation in a golden age with full employment and its reversal of direction in a steady state with non-employment are then considered. But in each of these, variables like rate of savings and output/capital ratio are found to be dormant variables. They are termed as null variables which, being of no account in both full-employment and unemployment situations, could, without loss, be deleted from the repertory of analytical tools. The Harrod formula of warranted rate of growth, when put in causal form, thus becomes a redundant portion of economics of growth. The real determinants of the growth rate and real wage rate on which the analysis of growth or of development should be based, are also depicted.

  15. Evaluation of Bias-Variance Trade-Off for Commonly Used Post-Summarizing Normalization Procedures in Large-Scale Gene Expression Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Xing; Hu, Rui; Wu, Zhixin

    2014-01-01

    Normalization procedures are widely used in high-throughput genomic data analyses to remove various technological noise and variations. They are known to have profound impact to the subsequent gene differential expression analysis. Although there has been some research in evaluating different normalization procedures, few attempts have been made to systematically evaluate the gene detection performances of normalization procedures from the bias-variance trade-off point of view, especially with strong gene differentiation effects and large sample size. In this paper, we conduct a thorough study to evaluate the effects of normalization procedures combined with several commonly used statistical tests and MTPs under different configurations of effect size and sample size. We conduct theoretical evaluation based on a random effect model, as well as simulation and biological data analyses to verify the results. Based on our findings, we provide some practical guidance for selecting a suitable normalization procedure under different scenarios. PMID:24941114

  16. Speed and stamina trade-off in lacertid lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanhooydonck, B; Van Damme, R; Aerts, P

    2001-05-01

    Morphological and physiological considerations suggest that sprinting ability and endurance capacity put conflicting demands on the design of an animal's locomotor apparatus and therefore cannot be maximized simultaneously. To test this hypothesis, we correlated size-corrected maximal sprint speed and stamina of 12 species of lacertid lizards. Phylogenetically independent contrasts of sprint speed and stamina showed a significant negative relationship, giving support to the idea of an evolutionary trade-off between the two performance measures. To test the hypothesis that the trade-off is mediated by a conflict in morphological requirements, we correlated both performance traits with snout-vent length, size-corrected estimates of body mass and limb length, and relative hindlimb length (the residuals of the relationship between hind- and forelimb length). Fast-running species had hindlimbs that were long compared to their forelimbs. None of the other size or shape variables showed a significant relationship with speed or endurance. We conclude that the evolution of sprint capacity may be constrained by the need for endurance capacity and vice versa, but the design conflict underlying this trade-off has yet to be identified.

  17. Evolutionary trade-offs in kidney injury and repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yutian; Anders, Hans-Joachim

    2017-11-01

    Evolutionary medicine has proven helpful to understand the origin of human disease, e.g. in identifying causal roles of recent environmental changes impacting on human physiology (environment-phenotype mismatch). In contrast, diseases affecting only a limited number of members of a species often originate from evolutionary trade-offs for usually physiologic adaptations assuring reproductive success in the context of extrinsic threats. For example, the G1 and G2 variants of the APOL1 gene supporting control of Trypanosoma infection come with the trade-off that they promote the progression of kidney disease. In this review we extend the concept of evolutionary nephrology by discussing how the physiologic adaptations (danger responses) to tissue injury create evolutionary trade-offs that drive histopathological changes underlying acute and chronic kidney diseases. The evolution of multicellular organisms positively selected a number of danger response programs for their overwhelming benefits in assuring survival such as clotting, inflammation, epithelial healing and mesenchymal healing, i.e. fibrosis and sclerosis. Upon kidney injury these danger programs often present as pathomechanisms driving persistent nephron loss and renal failure. We explore how classic kidney disease entities involve insufficient or overshooting activation of these danger response programs for which the underlying genetic basis remains largely to be defined. Dissecting the causative and hierarchical relationships between danger programs should help to identify molecular targets to control kidney injury and to improve disease outcomes.

  18. Synthetic control of a fitness tradeoff in yeast nitrogen metabolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Jack J

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microbial communities are involved in many processes relevant to industrial and medical biotechnology, such as the formation of biofilms, lignocellulosic degradation, and hydrogen production. The manipulation of synthetic and natural microbial communities and their underlying ecological parameters, such as fitness, evolvability, and variation, is an increasingly important area of research for synthetic biology. Results Here, we explored how synthetic control of an endogenous circuit can be used to regulate a tradeoff between fitness in resource abundant and resource limited environments in a population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We found that noise in the expression of a key enzyme in ammonia assimilation, Gdh1p, mediated a tradeoff between growth in low nitrogen environments and stress resistance in high ammonia environments. We implemented synthetic control of an endogenous Gdh1p regulatory network to construct an engineered strain in which the fitness of the population was tunable in response to an exogenously-added small molecule across a range of ammonia environments. Conclusion The ability to tune fitness and biological tradeoffs will be important components of future efforts to engineer microbial communities.

  19. Causal Rasch models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jackson Stenner

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Rasch’s unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities, measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items, and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments. Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct. We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  20. Causal Rasch models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A Jackson; Fisher, William P; Stone, Mark H; Burdick, Donald S

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  1. Causal Rasch models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

  2. Verification and Validation of FAARR Model and Data Envelopment Analysis Models for United States Army Recruiting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Piskator, Gene

    1998-01-01

    ...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...

  3. A catalog of automated analysis methods for enterprise models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florez, Hector; Sánchez, Mario; Villalobos, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    Enterprise models are created for documenting and communicating the structure and state of Business and Information Technologies elements of an enterprise. After models are completed, they are mainly used to support analysis. Model analysis is an activity typically based on human skills and due to the size and complexity of the models, this process can be complicated and omissions or miscalculations are very likely. This situation has fostered the research of automated analysis methods, for supporting analysts in enterprise analysis processes. By reviewing the literature, we found several analysis methods; nevertheless, they are based on specific situations and different metamodels; then, some analysis methods might not be applicable to all enterprise models. This paper presents the work of compilation (literature review), classification, structuring, and characterization of automated analysis methods for enterprise models, expressing them in a standardized modeling language. In addition, we have implemented the analysis methods in our modeling tool.

  4. Using grizzly bears to assess harvest-ecosystem tradeoffs in salmon fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Taal; Darimont, Chris T; Macduffee, Misty; Mangel, Marc; Paquet, Paul; Wilmers, Christopher C

    2012-01-01

    Implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) requires a clear conceptual and quantitative framework for assessing how different harvest options can modify benefits to ecosystem and human beneficiaries. We address this social-ecological need for Pacific salmon fisheries, which are economically valuable but intercept much of the annual pulse of nutrient subsidies that salmon provide to terrestrial and aquatic food webs. We used grizzly bears, vectors of salmon nutrients and animals with densities strongly coupled to salmon abundance, as surrogates for "salmon ecosystem" function. Combining salmon biomass and stock-recruitment data with stable isotope analysis, we assess potential tradeoffs between fishery yields and bear population densities for six sockeye salmon stocks in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and British Columbia (BC), Canada. For the coastal stocks, we find that both bear densities and fishery yields would increase substantially if ecosystem allocations of salmon increase from currently applied lower to upper goals and beyond. This aligning of benefits comes at a potential cost, however, with the possibility of forgoing harvests in low productivity years. In contrast, we detect acute tradeoffs between bear densities and fishery yields in interior stocks within the Fraser River, BC, where biomass from other salmon species is low. There, increasing salmon allocations to ecosystems would benefit threatened bear populations at the cost of reduced long-term yields. To resolve this conflict, we propose an EBFM goal that values fisheries and bears (and by extension, the ecosystem) equally. At such targets, ecosystem benefits are unexpectedly large compared with losses in fishery yields. To explore other management options, we generate tradeoff curves that provide stock-specific accounting of the expected loss to fishers and gain to bears as more salmon escape the fishery. Our approach, modified to suit multiple scenarios, provides a generalizable method

  5. Using grizzly bears to assess harvest-ecosystem tradeoffs in salmon fisheries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taal Levi

    Full Text Available Implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM requires a clear conceptual and quantitative framework for assessing how different harvest options can modify benefits to ecosystem and human beneficiaries. We address this social-ecological need for Pacific salmon fisheries, which are economically valuable but intercept much of the annual pulse of nutrient subsidies that salmon provide to terrestrial and aquatic food webs. We used grizzly bears, vectors of salmon nutrients and animals with densities strongly coupled to salmon abundance, as surrogates for "salmon ecosystem" function. Combining salmon biomass and stock-recruitment data with stable isotope analysis, we assess potential tradeoffs between fishery yields and bear population densities for six sockeye salmon stocks in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and British Columbia (BC, Canada. For the coastal stocks, we find that both bear densities and fishery yields would increase substantially if ecosystem allocations of salmon increase from currently applied lower to upper goals and beyond. This aligning of benefits comes at a potential cost, however, with the possibility of forgoing harvests in low productivity years. In contrast, we detect acute tradeoffs between bear densities and fishery yields in interior stocks within the Fraser River, BC, where biomass from other salmon species is low. There, increasing salmon allocations to ecosystems would benefit threatened bear populations at the cost of reduced long-term yields. To resolve this conflict, we propose an EBFM goal that values fisheries and bears (and by extension, the ecosystem equally. At such targets, ecosystem benefits are unexpectedly large compared with losses in fishery yields. To explore other management options, we generate tradeoff curves that provide stock-specific accounting of the expected loss to fishers and gain to bears as more salmon escape the fishery. Our approach, modified to suit multiple scenarios, provides a

  6. Sensitivity analysis of a sediment dynamics model applied in a Mediterranean river basin: global change and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Canales, M; López-Benito, A; Acuña, V; Ziv, G; Hamel, P; Chaplin-Kramer, R; Elorza, F J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and land-use change are major factors influencing sediment dynamics. Models can be used to better understand sediment production and retention by the landscape, although their interpretation is limited by large uncertainties, including model parameter uncertainties. The uncertainties related to parameter selection may be significant and need to be quantified to improve model interpretation for watershed management. In this study, we performed a sensitivity analysis of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) sediment retention model in order to determine which model parameters had the greatest influence on model outputs, and therefore require special attention during calibration. The estimation of the sediment loads in this model is based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The sensitivity analysis was performed in the Llobregat basin (NE Iberian Peninsula) for exported and retained sediment, which support two different ecosystem service benefits (avoided reservoir sedimentation and improved water quality). Our analysis identified the model parameters related to the natural environment as the most influential for sediment export and retention. Accordingly, small changes in variables such as the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events could cause major changes in sediment dynamics, demonstrating the sensitivity of these dynamics to climate change in Mediterranean basins. Parameters directly related to human activities and decisions (such as cover management factor, C) were also influential, especially for sediment exported. The importance of these human-related parameters in the sediment export process suggests that mitigation measures have the potential to at least partially ameliorate climate-change driven changes in sediment exportation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Hydroeconomic analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Riegels, Niels; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2017-01-01

    Hydroeconomic analysis and modeling provides a consistent and quantitative framework to assess the links between water resources systems and economic activities related to water use, simultaneously modeling water supply and water demand. It supports water managers and decision makers in assessing...... trade-offs between different water uses, different geographic regions, and various economic sectors and between the present and the future. Hydroeconomic analysis provides consistent economic performance criteria for infrastructure development and institutional reform in water policies and management...... organizations. This chapter presents an introduction to hydroeconomic analysis and modeling, and reviews the state of the art in the field. We review available economic water-valuation techniques and summarize the main types of decision problems encountered in hydroeconomic analysis. Popular solution strategies...

  8. Army ants dynamically adjust living bridges in response to a cost-benefit trade-off.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Chris R; Lutz, Matthew J; Powell, Scott; Kao, Albert B; Couzin, Iain D; Garnier, Simon

    2015-12-08

    The ability of individual animals to create functional structures by joining together is rare and confined to the social insects. Army ants (Eciton) form collective assemblages out of their own bodies to perform a variety of functions that benefit the entire colony. Here we examine ‟bridges" of linked individuals that are constructed to span gaps in the colony's foraging trail. How these living structures adjust themselves to varied and changing conditions remains poorly understood. Our field experiments show that the ants continuously modify their bridges, such that these structures lengthen, widen, and change position in response to traffic levels and environmental geometry. Ants initiate bridges where their path deviates from their incoming direction and move the bridges over time to create shortcuts over large gaps. The final position of the structure depended on the intensity of the traffic and the extent of path deviation and was influenced by a cost-benefit trade-off at the colony level, where the benefit of increased foraging trail efficiency was balanced by the cost of removing workers from the foraging pool to form the structure. To examine this trade-off, we quantified the geometric relationship between costs and benefits revealed by our experiments. We then constructed a model to determine the bridge location that maximized foraging rate, which qualitatively matched the observed movement of bridges. Our results highlight how animal self-assemblages can be dynamically modified in response to a group-level cost-benefit trade-off, without any individual unit's having information on global benefits or costs.

  9. The teaching/research trade-off in law: data from the right tail.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsburg, Tom; Miles, Thomas J

    2015-02-01

    There is a long scholarly debate on the trade-off between research and teaching in various fields, but relatively little study of the phenomenon in law. This analysis examines the relationship between the two core academic activities at one particular school, the University of Chicago Law School, which is considered one of the most productive in legal academia. We measure of scholarly productivity with the total number of publications by each professor for each year, and we approximate performance in teaching with course loads and average scores in student evaluations for each course. In OLS regressions, we estimate scholarly output as a function of teaching loads, faculty characteristics, and other controls. We also estimate teaching evaluation scores as a function of scholarly productivity, fixed effects for years and course subject, and faculty characteristics. Net of other factors, we find that, under some specifications, research and teaching are positively correlated. In particular, we find that students' perceptions of teaching quality rises, but at a decreasing rate, with the total amount of scholarship. We also find that certain personal characteristics correlate with productivity. The recent debate on the mission of American law schools has hinged on the assumption that a trade-off exists between teaching and research, and this article's analysis, although limited in various ways, casts some doubt on that assumption. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. The Effect of Forest Management Strategy on Carbon Storage and Revenue in Western Washington: A Probabilistic Simulation of Tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Paul W; Cullen, Alison C; Ettl, Gregory J

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to understand tradeoffs between forest carbon and timber values, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty in improved forest management (IFM) carbon offset projects to improve forest management decisions. The study uses probabilistic simulation of uncertainty in financial risk for three management scenarios (clearcutting in 45- and 65-year rotations and no harvest) under three carbon price schemes (historic voluntary market prices, cap and trade, and carbon prices set to equal net present value (NPV) from timber-oriented management). Uncertainty is modeled for value and amount of carbon credits and wood products, the accuracy of forest growth model forecasts, and four other variables relevant to American Carbon Registry methodology. Calculations use forest inventory data from a 1,740 ha forest in western Washington State, using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model. Sensitivity analysis shows that FVS model uncertainty contributes more than 70% to overall NPV variance, followed in importance by variability in inventory sample (3-14%), and short-term prices for timber products (8%), while variability in carbon credit price has little influence (1.1%). At regional average land-holding costs, a no-harvest management scenario would become revenue-positive at a carbon credit break-point price of $14.17/Mg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). IFM carbon projects are associated with a greater chance of both large payouts and large losses to landowners. These results inform policymakers and forest owners of the carbon credit price necessary for IFM approaches to equal or better the business-as-usual strategy, while highlighting the magnitude of financial risk and reward through probabilistic simulation. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Visual behaviour analysis and driver cognitive model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baujon, J.; Basset, M.; Gissinger, G.L. [Mulhouse Univ., (France). MIPS/MIAM Lab.

    2001-07-01

    Recent studies on driver behaviour have shown that perception - mainly visual but also proprioceptive perception - plays a key role in the ''driver-vehicle-road'' system and so considerably affects the driver's decision making. Within the framework of the behaviour analysis and studies low-cost system (BASIL), this paper presents a correlative, qualitative and quantitative study, comparing the information given by visual perception and by the trajectory followed. This information will help to obtain a cognitive model of the Rasmussen type according to different driver classes. Many experiments in real driving situations have been carried out for different driver classes and for a given trajectory profile, using a test vehicle and innovative, specially designed, real-time tools, such as the vision system or the positioning module. (orig.)

  12. PCA: Principal Component Analysis for spectra modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, Peter D.; Oliver, Seb; Farrah, Duncan; Wang, Lingyu; Efstathiou, Andreas

    2012-07-01

    The mid-infrared spectra of ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) contain a variety of spectral features that can be used as diagnostics to characterize the spectra. However, such diagnostics are biased by our prior prejudices on the origin of the features. Moreover, by using only part of the spectrum they do not utilize the full information content of the spectra. Blind statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (PCA) consider the whole spectrum, find correlated features and separate them out into distinct components. This code, written in IDL, classifies principal components of IRS spectra to define a new classification scheme using 5D Gaussian mixtures modelling. The five PCs and average spectra for the four classifications to classify objects are made available with the code.

  13. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  14. A Novel Piezoresistive Accelerometer with SPBs to Improve the Tradeoff between the Sensitivity and the Resonant Frequency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available For improving the tradeoff between the sensitivity and the resonant frequency of piezoresistive accelerometers, the dependency between the stress of the piezoresistor and the displacement of the structure is taken into consideration in this paper. In order to weaken the dependency, a novel structure with suspended piezoresistive beams (SPBs is designed, and a theoretical model is established for calculating the location of SPBs, the stress of SPBs and the resonant frequency of the whole structure. Finite element method (FEM simulations, comparative simulations and experiments are carried out to verify the good agreement with the theoretical model. It is demonstrated that increasing the sensitivity greatly without sacrificing the resonant frequency is possible in the piezoresistive accelerometer design. Therefore, the proposed structure with SPBs is potentially a novel option for improving the tradeoff between the sensitivity and the resonant frequency of piezoresistive accelerometers.

  15. A Novel Piezoresistive Accelerometer with SPBs to Improve the Tradeoff between the Sensitivity and the Resonant Frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yu; Zhao, Libo; Jiang, Zhuangde; Ding, Jianjun; Peng, Niancai; Zhao, Yulong

    2016-02-06

    For improving the tradeoff between the sensitivity and the resonant frequency of piezoresistive accelerometers, the dependency between the stress of the piezoresistor and the displacement of the structure is taken into consideration in this paper. In order to weaken the dependency, a novel structure with suspended piezoresistive beams (SPBs) is designed, and a theoretical model is established for calculating the location of SPBs, the stress of SPBs and the resonant frequency of the whole structure. Finite element method (FEM) simulations, comparative simulations and experiments are carried out to verify the good agreement with the theoretical model. It is demonstrated that increasing the sensitivity greatly without sacrificing the resonant frequency is possible in the piezoresistive accelerometer design. Therefore, the proposed structure with SPBs is potentially a novel option for improving the tradeoff between the sensitivity and the resonant frequency of piezoresistive accelerometers.

  16. Trade-offs between driving nodes and time-to-control in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pequito, Sérgio; Preciado, Victor M.; Barabási, Albert-László; Pappas, George J.

    2017-01-01

    Recent advances in control theory provide us with efficient tools to determine the minimum number of driving (or driven) nodes to steer a complex network towards a desired state. Furthermore, we often need to do it within a given time window, so it is of practical importance to understand the trade-offs between the minimum number of driving/driven nodes and the minimum time required to reach a desired state. Therefore, we introduce the notion of actuation spectrum to capture such trade-offs, which we used to find that in many complex networks only a small fraction of driving (or driven) nodes is required to steer the network to a desired state within a relatively small time window. Furthermore, our empirical studies reveal that, even though synthetic network models are designed to present structural properties similar to those observed in real networks, their actuation spectra can be dramatically different. Thus, it supports the need to develop new synthetic network models able to replicate controllability properties of real-world networks.

  17. Economics of social trade-off: Balancing wastewater treatment cost and ecosystem damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yu; Dinar, Ariel; Hellegers, Petra

    2018-04-01

    We have developed a social optimization model that integrates the financial and ecological costs associated with wastewater treatment and ecosystem damage. The social optimal abatement level of water pollution is determined by finding the trade-off between the cost of pollution control and its resulting ecosystem damage. The model is applied to data from the Lake Taihu region in China to demonstrate this trade-off. A wastewater treatment cost function is estimated with a sizable sample from China, and an ecological damage cost function is estimated following an ecosystem service valuation framework. Results show that the wastewater treatment cost function has economies of scale in facility capacity, and diseconomies in pollutant removal efficiency. Results also show that a low value of the ecosystem service will lead to serious ecological damage. One important policy implication is that the assimilative capacity of the lake should be enhanced by forbidding over extraction of water from the lake. It is also suggested that more work should be done to improve the accuracy of the economic valuation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Modeling and analysis of collective management of water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Tilmant

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM recommends, among other things, that the management of water resources systems be carried out at the lowest appropriate level in order to increase the transparency, acceptability and efficiency of the decision-making process. Empowering water users and stakeholders transforms the decision-making process by enlarging the number of point of views that must be considered as well as the set of rules through which decisions are taken. This paper investigates the impact of different group decision-making approaches on the operating policies of a water resource. To achieve this, the water resource allocation problem is formulated as an optimization problem which seeks to maximize the aggregated satisfaction of various water users corresponding to different approaches to collective choice, namely the utilitarian and the egalitarian ones. The optimal operating policies are then used in simulation and compared. The concepts are illustrated with a multipurpose reservoir in Chile. The analysis of simulation results reveals that if this reservoir were to be managed by its water users, both approaches to collective choice would yield significantly different operating policies. The paper concludes that the transfer of management to water users must be carefully implemented if a reasonable trade-off between equity and efficiency is to be achieved.

  19. Early Start DENVER Model: A Meta - analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane P. Canoy

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Each child with Autism Spectrum Disorder has different symptoms, skills and types of impairment or disorder with other children. This is why the word “spectrum” is included in this disorder. Eapen, Crncec, and Walter, 2013 claimed that there was an emerging evidence that early interventions gives the greatest capacity of child’s development during their first years of life as “brain plasticity” are high during this period. With this, the only intervention program model for children as young as 18 months that has been validated in a randomized clinical trial is “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM. This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of the outcome of “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM towards young children with Autism Spectrum Disorders. This study made use of meta-analysis method. In this study, the researcher utilized studies related to “Early Start Denver Model (ESDM” which is published in a refereed journal which are all available online. There were five studies included which totals 149 children exposed to ESDM. To examine the “pooled effects” of ESDM in a variety of outcomes, a meta-analytic procedure was performed after the extraction of data of the concrete outcomes. Comprehensive Meta Analysis Version 3.3.070 was used to analyze the data.  The effectiveness of the outcome of “Early Start Denver Model” towards young children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD highly depends on the intensity of intervention and the younger child age. This study would provide the basis in effectively implementing an early intervention to children with autism such as the “Early Start Denver Model” (ESDM that would show great outcome effects to those children that has “Autism Spectrum Disorder”.

  20. Modelling structural systems for transient response analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melosh, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    This paper introduces and reports success of a direct means of determining the time periods in which a structural system behaves as a linear system. Numerical results are based on post fracture transient analyses of simplified nuclear piping systems. Knowledge of the linear response ranges will lead to improved analysis-test correlation and more efficient analyses. It permits direct use of data from physical tests in analysis and simplication of the analytical model and interpretation of its behavior. The paper presents a procedure for deducing linearity based on transient responses. Given the forcing functions and responses of discrete points of the system at various times, the process produces evidence of linearity and quantifies an adequate set of equations of motion. Results of use of the process with linear and nonlinear analyses of piping systems with damping illustrate its success. Results cover the application to data from mathematical system responses. The process is successfull with mathematical models. In loading ranges in which all modes are excited, eight digit accuracy of predictions are obtained from the equations of motion deduced. Small changes (less than 0.01%) in the norm of the transfer matrices are produced by manipulation errors for linear systems yielding evidence that nonlinearity is easily distinguished. Significant changes (greater than five %) are coincident with relatively large norms of the equilibrium correction vector in nonlinear analyses. The paper shows that deducing linearity and, when admissible, quantifying linear equations of motion from transient response data for piping systems can be achieved with accuracy comparable to that of response data