total risk integrated: Topics by WorldWideScience.org

Sample records for total risk integrated

Managing the total cost of risk exposures through risk mapping techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unione, A.J.; Rode, D.M.

1998-01-01

In a competitive power market, power producers are exposed to an increasingly broad spectrum of financial risks. The cumulative impact of these financial risks is known collectively as the Total of Cost of Risk. The concept of Total of Cost of Risk presents the business reality of a company's exposure to potentially devastating financial consequences in an integrated and useful way. In this way, a strategy of managing Total Cost of Risk in the most cost effective way can become a means of ensuring long term business health and security. This paper will examine the use of risk mapping as a tool for visually understanding Total Cost of Risk, thus creating an enhanced situational awareness and an integrated basis for risk management decision. The evaluation process, available through the use of risk maps allows the power producers to pro-actively implement prudent business decisions concerning the design, operation and maintenance of power plants. Risk mapping is thus a means for harmonizing operational objectives, such as improved plant reliability, with corporate strategies and goals in terms of an effective risk management program
Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the
Relative Hom-Hopf modules and total integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Shuangjian; Zhang, Xiaohui; Wang, Shengxiang

2015-01-01

Let (H, α) be a monoidal Hom-Hopf algebra and (A, β) a right (H, α)-Hom-comodule algebra. We first investigate the criterion for the existence of a total integral of (A, β) in the setting of monoidal Hom-Hopf algebras. Also, we prove that there exists a total integral ϕ : (H, α) → (A, β) if and only if any representation of the pair (H, A) is injective in a functorial way, as a corepresentation of (H, α), which generalizes Doi’s result. Finally, we define a total quantum integral γ : H → Hom(H, A) and prove the following affineness criterion: if there exists a total quantum integral γ and the canonical map ψ : A⊗ B A → A ⊗ H, a⊗ B b ↦ β −1 (a) b [0] ⊗ α(b [1] ) is surjective, then the induction functor A⊗ B −:ℋ ~ (ℳ k ) B →ℋ ~ (ℳ k ) A H is an equivalence of categories
Relative Hom-Hopf modules and total integrals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guo, Shuangjian [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025 (China); Zhang, Xiaohui [Department of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096 (China); Wang, Shengxiang, E-mail: wangsx-math@163.com [School of Mathematics and Finance, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou 239000 (China); Department of Mathematics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China)

2015-02-15

Let (H, α) be a monoidal Hom-Hopf algebra and (A, β) a right (H, α)-Hom-comodule algebra. We first investigate the criterion for the existence of a total integral of (A, β) in the setting of monoidal Hom-Hopf algebras. Also, we prove that there exists a total integral ϕ : (H, α) → (A, β) if and only if any representation of the pair (H, A) is injective in a functorial way, as a corepresentation of (H, α), which generalizes Doi’s result. Finally, we define a total quantum integral γ : H → Hom(H, A) and prove the following affineness criterion: if there exists a total quantum integral γ and the canonical map ψ : A⊗{sub B}A → A ⊗ H, a⊗{sub B}b ↦ β{sup −1}(a) b{sub [0]} ⊗ α(b{sub [1]}) is surjective, then the induction functor A⊗{sub B}−:ℋ{sup ~}(ℳ{sub k}){sub B}→ℋ{sup ~}(ℳ{sub k}){sub A}{sup H} is an equivalence of categories.
Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.
Managing IT Integration Risk in Acquisitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsson, Stefan; Kettinger, William J.

2016-01-01

The article discusses a framework for evaluating risk of information technology (IT) integration in acquisitions. Topics include the use of the experience of serial acquirer Trelleborg AB to show the merits of the framework for managing the risk and to determine low-risk acquisitions......, the importance of managing IT integration risk, and various risk areas for acquisition IT integration....
Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...
Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...
Mortality After Total Knee and Total Hip Arthroplasty in a Large Integrated Health Care System.

Science.gov (United States)

Inacio, Maria C S; Dillon, Mark T; Miric, Alex; Navarro, Ronald A; Paxton, Elizabeth W

2017-01-01

The number of excess deaths associated with elective total joint arthroplasty in the US is not well understood. To evaluate one-year postoperative mortality among patients with elective primary and revision arthroplasty procedures of the hip and knee. A retrospective analysis was conducted of hip and knee arthroplasties performed in 2010. Procedure type, procedure volume, patient age and sex, and mortality were obtained from an institutional total joint replacement registry. An integrated health care system population was the sampling frame for the study subjects and was the reference group for the study. Standardized 1-year mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 10,163 primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs), 4963 primary total hip arthroplasties (THAs), 606 revision TKAs, and 496 revision THAs were evaluated. Patients undergoing primary THA (SMR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.4-0.7) and TKA (SMR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.3-0.5) had lower odds of mortality than expected. Patients with revision TKA had higher-than-expected mortality odds (SMR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5), whereas patients with revision THA (SMR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.4-1.5) did not have higher-than-expected odds of mortality. Understanding excess mortality after joint surgery allows clinicians to evaluate current practices and to determine whether certain groups are at higher-than-expected mortality risk after surgery.
A system and approach for total pipeline integrity management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, Todd; Neidhardt, Dietmar [Tuboscope Pipeline Services, Houston, TX (United States); Gonzalez, Oscar [Tuboscope Mexico S.A. de C.V., Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

2005-07-01

Pipeline rehabilitation and maintenance decisions are made using a wide variety of data, criteria, and expertise. The goal is to arrive at an optimal plan that considers risk and best return on Repair and Maintenance (R and M) expenditures for aging pipeline systems in both regulated and non-regulated environments. In order to achieve these goals, historical, operations, and assessment data is gathered, aligned and integrated as part of a baseline assessment. Integrity threats are identified based on operations and industry experience, and combined with potential consequences to public safety, the environment, and business to clearly delineate high risk exposure segments in the system. Integrity assessments are conducted in a prioritized manner, using the most appropriate technology and methods to address the threats. These include In Line Inspection technologies: MFL, Deformation, UT, INS (combinations thereof), Direct Assessment for EC and SCC threats, Hydro testing, and other indirect methods. From these results, decisions are made and R and M plans developed. To arrive at an optimal R and M plan, proper use of existing data, new integrity assessment data, and decision risk models is required. This paper presentation will detail the tactical aspect of an effective integrity management platform. Experience in decision support, operations priorities and execution of a rehabilitation plan using LinaView Pro{sup TM} integrity management system with risk-based integrity tools and maintenance planning will be presented. A process overview, results, and benefits will be given using these examples from operating oil and gas transmission pipelines. (author)
Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-01-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk
RISK INTEGRATION MECHANISMS AND APPROACHES IN BANKING INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

JIANPING LI; JICHUANG FENG; XIAOLEI SUN; MINGLU LI

2012-01-01

Recently, the number of consultative documents and research papers that discuss risk integration has grown considerably. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done on risk integration in the banking industry. This survey includes: (1) risk integration methods within regulatory frameworks and the banking industry; (2) challenges of risk integration; (3) risk interaction mechanisms; (4) development of risk integration approaches; (5) risk interaction results: diversification ve...
Integrating risks at contaminated sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.; Habegger, L.; Nieves, L.; Schreiber, Z.; Travis, C.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for a number of large sites across the country that were radioactively and chemically contaminated by past nuclear research, development, and production activities. Multiple risk assessments are being conducted for these sites to evaluate current conditions and determine what measures are needed to protect human health and the environment from today through the long term. Integrating the risks associated with multiple contaminants in different environmental media across extensive areas, over time periods that extend beyond 1,000 years, and for a number of different impact categories--from human health and ecological to social and economic--represents a considerable challenge. A central element of these integrated analyses is the ability to reflect key interrelationships among environmental resources and human communities that may be adversely affected by the actions or inactions being considered for a given site. Complicating the already difficult task of integrating many kinds of risk is the importance of reflecting the diverse values and preferences brought to bear by the multiple parties interested in the risk analysis process and outcome. An initial conceptual framework has been developed to provide an organized structure to this risk integration, with the aim of supporting effective environmental management decisions. This paper highlights key issues associated with comprehensive risk integration and offers suggestions developed from preliminary work at a complex DOE site
Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Taiji

2014-01-01

Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)
Considerations on Integrating Risk and Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria POPESCU

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to highlight the links between risk management and quality management and to study the possibility of their integrated approach. The study reviews the evolution of risk approach within organizations and stresses the need to increase the effectiveness of this approach by incorporating risk management methodology in the quality management system. Starting from this idea, the authors present the current state of risk approach into quality management, basic rules of integrated quality-risk management and major difficulties which may arise in the implementation of integrated quality–risk systems.
Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.
Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.
Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobs, Rianne; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects
Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jacobs, Rianne, E-mail: rianne.jacobs@wur.nl; Voet, Hilko van der; Braak, Cajo J. F. ter [Wageningen University and Research Centre, Biometris (Netherlands)

2015-06-15

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5–200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.
An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Integrated supply chain risk management

OpenAIRE

Riaan Bredell; Jackie Walters

2007-01-01

Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM) has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly ...
Optimal solution of full fuzzy transportation problems using total integral ranking

Science.gov (United States)

Sam’an, M.; Farikhin; Hariyanto, S.; Surarso, B.

2018-03-01

Full fuzzy transportation problem (FFTP) is a transportation problem where transport costs, demand, supply and decision variables are expressed in form of fuzzy numbers. To solve fuzzy transportation problem, fuzzy number parameter must be converted to a crisp number called defuzzyfication method. In this new total integral ranking method with fuzzy numbers from conversion of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to hexagonal fuzzy numbers obtained result of consistency defuzzyfication on symmetrical fuzzy hexagonal and non symmetrical type 2 numbers with fuzzy triangular numbers. To calculate of optimum solution FTP used fuzzy transportation algorithm with least cost method. From this optimum solution, it is found that use of fuzzy number form total integral ranking with index of optimism gives different optimum value. In addition, total integral ranking value using hexagonal fuzzy numbers has an optimal value better than the total integral ranking value using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.
A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a
Imaging Total Stations - Modular and Integrated Concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Hauth, Stefan; Schlüter, Martin

2010-05-01

Keywords: 3D-Metrology, Engineering Geodesy, Digital Image Processing Initialized in 2009, the Institute for Spatial Information and Surveying Technology i3mainz, Mainz University of Applied Sciences, forces research towards modular concepts for imaging total stations. On the one hand, this research is driven by the successful setup of high precision imaging motor theodolites in the near past, on the other hand it is pushed by the actual introduction of integrated imaging total stations to the positioning market by the manufacturers Topcon and Trimble. Modular concepts for imaging total stations are manufacturer independent to a large extent and consist of a particular combination of accessory hardware, software and algorithmic procedures. The hardware part consists mainly of an interchangeable eyepiece adapter offering opportunities for digital imaging and motorized focus control. An easy assembly and disassembly in the field is possible allowing the user to switch between the classical and the imaging use of a robotic total station. The software part primarily has to ensure hardware control, but several level of algorithmic support might be added and have to be distinguished. Algorithmic procedures allow to reach several levels of calibration concerning the geometry of the external digital camera and the total station. We deliver insight in our recent developments and quality characteristics. Both the modular and the integrated approach seem to have its individual strengths and weaknesses. Therefore we expect that both approaches might point at different target applications. Our aim is a better understanding of appropriate applications for robotic imaging total stations. First results are presented. Stefan Hauth, Martin Schlüter i3mainz - Institut für Raumbezogene Informations- und Messtechnik FH Mainz University of Applied Sciences Lucy-Hillebrand-Straße 2, 55128 Mainz, Germany
RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the â€˜top 8-12â€™ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (â€˜top 8-12â€™ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.
Integrated Communications at America's Leading Total Quality Management Corporations.

Science.gov (United States)

Gronstedt, Anders

1996-01-01

Examines how to create organizational processes that allow communication professionals with a variety of expertise to support each other through coordination and integration. Studies eight of America's leading total quality management corporations, including AT&T, Federal Express, Saturn, and Xerox. Explores how various total quality…
Supply chain integration, risk management and manufacturing flexibility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chaudhuri, Atanu; Boer, Harry; Taran, Yariv

2018-01-01

, respectively, and manufacturing flexibility. Design/methodology/approach – Using hierarchical regression, data are analyzed from a sample of 343 manufacturing plants in Asia collected in 2013-2014 as part of the International Manufacturing Strategy Survey (IMSS VI). Findings – Internal integration and supply......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal integration, external integration and supply chain risk management on manufacturing flexibility, and the moderating effect of supply chain risk management on the relationships between internal and external integration...... chain risk management have a direct effect on manufacturing flexibility. Supply chain risk management moderates the relationship between external integration and flexibility. Research limitations/implications – Further research is needed to generalize beyond the flexibility performance of discrete...
'Awareness and attitudes towards total cardiovascular disease risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Microsoft account

Corresponding author: Dr S Ofori, Department of Internal Medicine, ... regarding total CVD risk assessment in clinical practice among physicians in Port ..... cardiovascular risk for prevention and control of cardiovascular disease in low and.
Integrated supply chain risk management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riaan Bredell

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Integrated supply chain risk management (ISCRM has become indispensable to the theory and practice of supply chain management. The economic and political realities of the modern world require not only a different approach to supply chain management, but also bold steps to secure supply chain performance and sustainable wealth creation. Integrated supply chain risk management provides supply chain organisations with a level of insight into their supply chains yet to be achieved. If correctly applied, this process may optimise management decision-making and assist in the protection and enhancement of shareholder value.
Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

Science.gov (United States)

Ndindjock, Roger; Gedeon, Jude; Mendis, Shanthi; Paccaud, Fred; Bovet, Pascal

2011-04-01

To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication. A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted. Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.
Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

2017-01-01

The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...
Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process
Risk factors for total hip arthroplasty aseptic revision.

Science.gov (United States)

Khatod, Monti; Cafri, Guy; Namba, Robert S; Inacio, Maria C S; Paxton, Elizabeth W

2014-07-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate patient, operative, implant, surgeon, and hospital factors associated with aseptic revision after primary THA in patients registered in a large US Total Joint Replacement Registry. A total of 35,960 THAs registered from 4/2001-12/2010 were evaluated. The 8-year survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI 96.4%-97.0%). Females had a higher risk of aseptic revision than males. Hispanic and Asian patients had a lower risk of revision than white patients. Ceramic-on-ceramic, ceramic-on-conventional polyethylene, and metal-on-conventional polyethylene bearing surfaces had a higher risk of revision than metal-on-highly cross-linked polyethylene. Body mass index, health status, diabetes, diagnosis, fixation, approach, bilateral procedures, head size, surgeon fellowship training, surgeon and hospital volume were not revision risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Notion of Total Dual Integrality for Convex, Semidefinite, and Extended Formulations

OpenAIRE

Silva, Marcel K. de Carli; Tunçel, Levent

2018-01-01

Total dual integrality is a powerful and unifying concept in polyhedral combinatorics and integer programming that enables the refinement of geometric min-max relations given by linear programming Strong Duality into combinatorial min-max theorems. The definition of total dual integrality (TDI) revolves around the existence of optimal dual solutions that are integral, and thus naturally applies to a host of combinatorial optimization problems that are cast as integer programs whose LP relaxat...
Integrating total quality management in a library setting

CERN Document Server

Jurow, Susan

2013-01-01

Improve the delivery of library services by implementing total quality management (TQM), a system of continuous improvement employing participative management and centered on the needs of customers. Although TQM was originally designed for and successfully applied in business and manufacturing settings, this groundbreaking volume introduces strategies for translating TQM principles from the profit-based manufacturing sector to the library setting. Integrating Total Quality Management in a Library Setting shows librarians how to improve library services by implementing strategies such as employ
Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

1990-01-01

The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...
The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bennett, C.T.

1994-10-01

The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.
Risk management in radiotherapy: analysis for total body irradiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banguero, Y., E-mail: ybanguero@cin.edu.uy [Universidad de la República, Montevideo (Uruguay); Píriz, G.; Guerrero, L.; Cardozo, L.; Quarneti, A. [Centro Hospital Pereira Rossell, Montevideo (Uruguay); Nader, A. [Autoridad Reguladora Nacional de Radioprotección, Montevideo (Uruguay)

2017-07-01

Introduction: Management of risk in any technique that is using radiation energy is very important to prevent incidents and accidents. Pretending evaluate the risk in the all process of Total Body Irradiation (TBI), this work present a risk matrix with different possible events than could occur. Methods: SEVRRA-R platform that run in windows is using to build a risk matrix separating the process of TBI in commissioning, prescription, planning and delivering dose. Any stage has a procedure with different errors associated. We build a matrix using all this information to evaluate the kind of risk we have in the technique. Results: It was obtained a template that describes in general the process of TBI with principles events, barriers and consequences. Conclusion: Analyzing the risk in any stage of the process in Total Body irradiation is a useful tool to understand the key points to work in safety for this technique. (author)
Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

2010-01-01

The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

RCT of an integrated CBT-HIV intervention on depressive symptoms and HIV risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Tobin, Karin; Davey-Rothwell, Melissa A; Nonyane, Bareng A S; Knowlton, Amy; Wissow, Lawrence; Latkin, Carl A

2017-01-01

Depression and depressive symptoms mediate the association between drug use and HIV risk. Yet, there are few interventions that target depressive symptoms and HIV risk for people who use drugs (PWUD). This study was a randomized controlled trial of an integrated cognitive behavioral therapy and HIV prevention intervention to reduce depressive symptoms, injection risk behaviors and increase condom use in a sample of urban people who used heroin or cocaine in the prior 6 months. A total of 315 individuals aged 18-55, who self-reported at least one HIV drug and sex risk behavior and scored ≥16 and symptoms, but weak impact on HIV risk. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov under the title "Neighborhoods, Networks, Depression, and HIV Risk" number NCT01380613.
The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... between strategy and the risks and opportunities faced by the organisation. For this purpose, a web-based research questionnaire was sent to high-level implementers of integrated reporting at companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa, where integrated reporting is a listing requirement.
Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Miller, Kent D.

1994-01-01

Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...
Total cholesterol and the risk of Parkinson disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, G; Antikainen, R; Jousilahti, P; Kivipelto, M; Tuomilehto, J

2008-05-20

To examine the association between serum total cholesterol at baseline and the risk of Parkinson disease (PD). Study cohorts included 24,773 Finnish men and 26,153 women aged 25 to 74 years without a history of PD and stroke at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) of incident PD were estimated for different levels of total cholesterol. During a mean follow-up period of 18.1 years, 321 men and 304 women developed incident PD. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, study years, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, education, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, coffee and tea consumption, and history of diabetes), the HRs of PD at different levels of total cholesterol (or=7 mmol/L) were 1.00, 1.33, 1.53, and 1.84 (p for trend = 0.035) in men; 1.00, 1.55, 1.57, and 1.86 (p for trend = 0.113) in women; and 1.00, 1.42, 1.56, and 1.86 (p for trend = 0.002) in men and women combined (adjusted also for sex). In both sexes combined, the increased risk of PD associated with increasing levels of serum total cholesterol was present both in subjects aged 25-44 years and in subjects aged 45-54 years at baseline, and in never smokers and smokers; however, no association was found among subjects aged 55 years or older at baseline. This large prospective study suggests that high total cholesterol at baseline is associated with an increased risk of Parkinson disease.
One Team, One Fight, One Future, Total Army Integration

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

1998-01-01

...; and, most important, our vision for maintaining a trained and ready force. As the ideas in One Team, One Fight, One Future unfold, you will find the key themes of Total Army integration emerging again and again...
Train integrity detection risk analysis based on PRISM

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Yuan

2018-04-01

GNSS based Train Integrity Monitoring System (TIMS) is an effective and low-cost detection scheme for train integrity detection. However, as an external auxiliary system of CTCS, GNSS may be influenced by external environments, such as uncertainty of wireless communication channels, which may lead to the failure of communication and positioning. In order to guarantee the reliability and safety of train operation, a risk analysis method of train integrity detection based on PRISM is proposed in this article. First, we analyze the risk factors (in GNSS communication process and the on-board communication process) and model them. Then, we evaluate the performance of the model in PRISM based on the field data. Finally, we discuss how these risk factors influence the train integrity detection process.
Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

integration. We also calculate the welfare costs of imperfect capital market integration and risk sharing and find that these costs vary a lot over time. Finally, we show that consumption risk sharing is higher during times of crises, i.e. at times when marginal utility is high and risk sharing is most......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...... capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust is to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatilities. Hence, financial integration seems to drive consumption risk sharing whereas we find no evidence that risk sharing forecasts market...
RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

Szabo Alina

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the â€˜top 8-12â€™ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...
A multilayered integrated sensor for three-dimensional, micro total analysis systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao, Jing; Song, Fuchuan; Seo, Sang-Woo

2013-01-01

This paper presents a layer-by-layer integration approach of different functional devices and demonstrates a heterogeneously integrated optical sensor featuring a micro-ring resonator and a high-speed thin-film InGaAs-based photodetector co-integrated with a microfluidic droplet generation device. A thin optical device structure allows a seamless integration with other polymer-based devices on a silicon platform. The integrated sensor successfully demonstrates its transient measurement capability of two-phase liquid flow in a microfluidic droplet generation device. The proposed approach represents an important step toward fully integrated micro total analysis systems. (paper)
Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)
Integral risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

1991-01-01

The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de
Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...
Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

1995-01-01

This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)
An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species
Total Site Integration and paper machine technologies; Total site integration ja paperikoneteknologia - PMST 02

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puumalainen, T.; Kaijaluoto, S.; Tervonen, P.; Edelmann, K. [VTT Energy, Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

1998-12-31

During the last 30 years the production capacity of a paper machine has tripled. The fastest machines of today run over about 1600 m/min, the web width being around 10 m. The desire to further increase the production capacity is leading to more expensive paper machines and to larger buildings, if current pressing and drying techniques are used. New pressing and drying techniques will decrease the need of thermal energy. Closed water cycles reduce the need of secondary heat abundantly available from the dryer section based on cylinder drying. Total Site Integration studies are required when the effect of new process concepts are to be evaluated against energy efficiency and environmental impacts. A proto type tool has been developed and the effect of new paper machine concepts on energy consumption have been analysed. The utilisation possibilities of the surplus energy will be studied later in the course of this project. (orig.)
Total Site Integration and paper machine technologies; Total site integration ja paperikoneteknologia - PMST 02

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puumalainen, T; Kaijaluoto, S; Tervonen, P; Edelmann, K [VTT Energy, Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

1999-12-31

During the last 30 years the production capacity of a paper machine has tripled. The fastest machines of today run over about 1600 m/min, the web width being around 10 m. The desire to further increase the production capacity is leading to more expensive paper machines and to larger buildings, if current pressing and drying techniques are used. New pressing and drying techniques will decrease the need of thermal energy. Closed water cycles reduce the need of secondary heat abundantly available from the dryer section based on cylinder drying. Total Site Integration studies are required when the effect of new process concepts are to be evaluated against energy efficiency and environmental impacts. A proto type tool has been developed and the effect of new paper machine concepts on energy consumption have been analysed. The utilisation possibilities of the surplus energy will be studied later in the course of this project. (orig.)
Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruno, Michael [Geomechanics Technologies, Incorporated, Monrovia, CA (United States)

2014-09-30

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historical data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.
An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

1999-01-01

Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs
Integral bounds for N-body total cross sections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osborn, T.A.; Bolle, D.

1979-01-01

We study the behavior of the total cross sections in the three- and N-body scattering problem. Working within the framework of the time-dependent two-Hilbert space scattering theory, we give a simple derivation of integral bounds for the total cross section for all processes initiated by the collision of two clusters. By combining the optical theorem with a trace identity derived by Jauch, Sinha, and Misra, we find, roughly speaking, that if the local pairwise interaction falls off faster than r -3 , then sigma/sub tot/(E) must decrease faster than E/sup -1/2/ at high energy. This conclusion is unchanged if one introduces a class of well-behaved three-body interactions
The Impact of Total Risk Management on Company's Performance

OpenAIRE

Mohammed, Hamdu Kedir; Knapkova, Adriana

2016-01-01

Traditionally risk management used to be considered as a means to alleviate perhaps eliminate negative outcomes of exposures. However, the result of this and other empirical studies shows the ability of risk management to go beyond this and respond to market factors which are out of management control in order to control volatilities in earning which ultimately improve corporate performance. The empirical study investigates the relationship between total risk management and company's performa...

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.
Cirrhosis is a risk factor for total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deleuran, Thomas; Overgaard, Søren; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2016-01-01

Background and purpose - There are limited data on risk factors for avascular necrosis of the hip, but cirrhosis has been proposed as a risk factor. We examined the association between cirrhosis and incidence of total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Methods - We used nationwide healthcare......,052 reference individuals. Their median age was 57 years, and 65% were men. 45 cirrhosis patients and 44 reference individuals underwent total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Cirrhosis patients' HR for a total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis was 10 (95% CI: 6-17), yet their 5-year risk...... of avascular necrosis was only 0.2%. For the reference individuals, the 5-year risk was 0.02%. Interpretation - Cirrhosis is a strong risk factor for avascular necrosis of the hip, but it is rare even in cirrhosis patients....
Managing Key Risks in Post-Merger IS Integration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alaranta, Mar; Mathiassen, L

2014-01-01

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) require organizations to blend together different information system (IS) configurations. Unfortunately, less than 50 percent of M&A's achieve their goals, with IS integration being a major problem. Here, the authors offer a framework to help managers prepare for......, analyze, and mitigate risks during post-merger IS integration. They identify key risks relating to IS integration content, process, and context, and present five strategies for mitigating those risks. Their framework aims to help managers proactively reduce the impact of adverse events. Adopting...... the framework supported by their templates is straightforward and the time and resources required are minimal. When properly executed, adoption increases the likelihood of successful merger outcomes; the framework is thus a valuable addition to the management tool box and can be applied in collaboration...
Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.
Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for the exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as the instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role...
Capital Market Integration and Consumption Risk Sharing over the Long Run

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Schmeling, Maik

2016-01-01

capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find......We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher...
Total Risk Management for Low Dose Radiation Exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Sterc, D.

2012-01-01

health. This view is supported with numerous evidences, and explained with beneficial effects from the increased activity of immune system activated with small radiation exposures. Finally, theory in between is that small doses are less than linearly proportionally harmful and that they are presenting a much smaller risks than according to the LNT. This view is derived from the use of different evidences. Difficulties to find one single theory about effects of small radiation doses are related to existence of huge variability and uncertainty in the evidence data. This is very hard experimental and theoretical problem. It will require lots of additional research to reduce these uncertainties and find final theory. This might be too late for the number of people affected in different ways with current single most conservative LNT approach. The problem with the conservative LNT regulatory approach is resulting in enormous additional costs of nuclear energy and medical applications. Which is reasonable and acceptable during the regular operation when source is high and concentrated. But, this becomes unreasonable huge economic burden after accidents and for cleanups with nuclear facilities. Similar problem arises with restriction of medical examinations and treatments based on over conservative risk estimate. Special circumstances are with evacuated people from contaminated areas where they are on the one side saved from small radiation exposures, and on the other side exposed to years of life away from their home and with numerous direct and indirect additional risks (i.e., stress, social problems, etc.). It seems reasonable that some alternative (total) risk management approach might be much more suitable for this situation. Evacuation of people from contaminated area with small doses sources should not be done when that induces larger risks from even what is expected from radiation based on LNT. Similar total risk management could be also applied for with medical
Total Correlation Function Integrals and Isothermal Compressibilities from Molecular Simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wedberg, Rasmus; Peters, Günther H.j.; Abildskov, Jens

2008-01-01

Generation of thermodynamic data, here compressed liquid density and isothermal compressibility data, using molecular dynamics simulations is investigated. Five normal alkane systems are simulated at three different state points. We compare two main approaches to isothermal compressibilities: (1...... in approximately the same amount of time. This suggests that computation of total correlation function integrals is a route to isothermal compressibility, as accurate and fast as well-established benchmark techniques. A crucial step is the integration of the radial distribution function. To obtain sensible results...
The effect of integrated reporting on integrated thinking between risk ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IIRC (2013b: 3), integrated thinking takes into account the connectivity and ... historical information and provides investors and other stakeholders with .... in the disclosure of risks and opportunities by using a sample of the top 100 JSE-.
Diagnosis and proposal for an integrated risk management en el Valle de Aburra: red risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aristizabal, Edier; Vargas, Richard

2008-01-01

From the analysis of the organizational situation of different institutions of the Aburra Valley oriented to reduce disasters and emergencies of natural and anthropological origin, a system for the prevention, relief and recovery, Area metropolitana del Valle de Aburra, environmental authority and planning institution, has made to the region a pro pose which try to integrate all governmental and private organizations through an integral risk management, denominated: The Regional Risk Management Network in the Aburra Valley, Risk Network. Risk Network is an open organizational system of inter institutional character to direct and co-ordinate policies and actions of analysis and risk reduction, as well as the preparation and execution of the response and recovery of disaster and emergencies. in the Aburra Valley. Two are the strategic instruments of the Network: The Risk Management Regional Plan in the Aburra Valley, and the Integrated Information System which was designed to support the different management processes of the Network.
Integrated project risk management of nuclear power projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiaohui; Xu Yuanhui

2001-01-01

The concept and the features of risks in nuclear power projects are introduced, and in terms of nuclear power projects' own features, the Nuclear Power Project Integrated Risk Management Model is presented. The identification, estimation, evaluation, response plan development, control of risks and the theoretical basis of risk management are discussed. The model has feedback and control functions in order to control and manage the risks dynamically
Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

1990-12-31

The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).
Integrated Risk Research. Case of Study: Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Jaimes, M.

2015-12-01

This integrated risk research include the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such hazard identification, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. We determined risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37ºN, 92.25ºW. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed mainly to earthquakes, landslides and floods. We developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic zonation, landslides and flood susceptibility using standard methodologies. Vulnerability was quantified from data collected from local families interviews considering five social variables: characteristics of housing construction, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing community plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception. Local families surveyed were randomly selected considering a sample statistically significant. Our results were spatially represented using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Structural vulnerability curves were generated for typical housing constructions. Our integrated risk analysis demonstrates that the community of Motozintla has a high level of structural and socio-economical risk to floods and earthquakes. More than half of the population does not know any existing Civil Protection Plan and perceive that they are in high risk to landslides and floods. Although the community is located in a high seismic risk zone, most of the local people believe that cannot be impacted by a large earthquake. These natural and social conditions indicate that the community of Motozintla has a very high level of risk to natural hazards. This research will support local decision makers in developing an integrated comprehensive natural hazards mitigation and prevention program.
Cirrhosis is a risk factor for total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Deleuran, Thomas; Overgaard, Søren; Vilstrup, Hendrik; Jepsen, Peter

2016-06-01

Background and purpose - There are limited data on risk factors for avascular necrosis of the hip, but cirrhosis has been proposed as a risk factor. We examined the association between cirrhosis and incidence of total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Methods - We used nationwide healthcare data to identify all Danish residents diagnosed with cirrhosis in 1994-2011, and matched them 1:5 by age and sex to non-cirrhotic reference individuals from the general population. We excluded people with a previous total hip arthroplasty, a previous hip fracture, or a previous diagnosis of avascular necrosis. We used stratified Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for cirrhosis patients relative to reference individuals, adjusting for potential confounders. We used the cumulative incidence function to compute 5-year risks. Results - We included 25,421 cirrhosis patients and 114,052 reference individuals. Their median age was 57 years, and 65% were men. 45 cirrhosis patients and 44 reference individuals underwent total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Cirrhosis patients' HR for a total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis was 10 (95% CI: 6-17), yet their 5-year risk of avascular necrosis was only 0.2%. For the reference individuals, the 5-year risk was 0.02%. Interpretation - Cirrhosis is a strong risk factor for avascular necrosis of the hip, but it is rare even in cirrhosis patients.
Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I.V. Cherniavska

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.
Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

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Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.
Methodological Bases for Describing Risks of the Enterprise Business Model in Integrated Reporting

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Nesterenko Oksana O.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological bases for describing the business and accounting risks of an enterprise business model in integrated reporting for their timely detection and assessment, and develop methods for their leveling or minimizing and possible prevention. It is proposed to consider risks in the process of forming integrated reporting from two sides: first, risks that arise in the business model of an organization and should be disclosed in its integrated report; second, accounting risks of integrated reporting, which should be taken into account by members of the cross-sectoral working group and management personnel in the process of forming and promulgating integrated reporting. To develop an adequate accounting and analytical tool for disclosure of information about the risks of the business model and integrated reporting, their leveling or minimization, in the article a terminological analysis of the essence of entrepreneurial and accounting risks is carried out. The entrepreneurial risk is defined as an objective-subjective economic category that characterizes the probability of negative or positive consequences of economic-social-ecological activity within the framework of the business model of an enterprise under uncertainty. The accounting risk is suggested to be understood as the probability of unfavorable consequences as a result of organizational, methodological errors in the integrated accounting system, which present threat to the quality, accuracy and reliability of the reporting information on economic, social and environmental activities in integrated reporting as well as threat of inappropriate decision-making by stakeholders based on the integrated report. For the timely identification of business risks and maximum leveling of the influence of accounting risks on the process of formation and publication of integrated reporting, in the study the place of entrepreneurial and accounting risks in
Circulating Total Bilirubin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kunutsor, Setor K.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of circulating total bilirubin and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a new prospective study and to determine whether adding information on total bilirubin values to established cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD
TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fordham, R.A.

1996-01-01

The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization
Total Site Heat Integration Considering Pressure Drops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kew Hong Chew

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Pressure drop is an important consideration in Total Site Heat Integration (TSHI. This is due to the typically large distances between the different plants and the flow across plant elevations and equipment, including heat exchangers. Failure to consider pressure drop during utility targeting and heat exchanger network (HEN synthesis may, at best, lead to optimistic energy targets, and at worst, an inoperable system if the pumps or compressors cannot overcome the actual pressure drop. Most studies have addressed the pressure drop factor in terms of pumping cost, forbidden matches or allowable pressure drop constraints in the optimisation of HEN. This study looks at the implication of pressure drop in the context of a Total Site. The graphical Pinch-based TSHI methodology is extended to consider the pressure drop factor during the minimum energy requirement (MER targeting stage. The improved methodology provides a more realistic estimation of the MER targets and valuable insights for the implementation of the TSHI design. In the case study, when pressure drop in the steam distribution networks is considered, the heating and cooling duties increase by 14.5% and 4.5%.

Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

2014-01-01

Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724
Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. A. Owca

2007-01-01

This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)
Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonkinson, J.A.

1994-01-01

The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable
Governance in support of integrated flood risk management? The case of Romania

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vinke-de Kruijf, Joanne; Kuks, Stefanus M.M.; Augustijn, Dionysius C.M.

2015-01-01

Building on an existing model of governance, this paper aims to assess the supportiveness of Romania׳s structural flood risk governance context towards integrated flood risk management. We assert that a governance structure supports the development and implementation of integrated flood risk
The Role of Standardization in Improving the Effectiveness of Integrated Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Ciocoiu, Carmen Nadia; Dobrea, Razvan Catalin

2010-01-01

The need of standardization in risk management is justified by the efforts to develop and introduce, during the last few years, integrated risk management frameworks inside the organizations. The financial crisis has underscored the fact that significant improvements in risk management organizations and capabilities are required. The business community and also the experts recognize that the risk management standards have an important role in improving the effectiveness of integrated risk man...
Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

Science.gov (United States)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.
Plasma Total Cysteine and Cardiovascular Risk Burden: Action and Interaction

OpenAIRE

De Chiara, Benedetta; Sedda, Valentina; Parolini, Marina; Campolo, Jonica; De Maria, Renata; Caruso, Raffaele; Pizzi, Gianluigi; Disoteo, Olga; Dellanoce, Cinzia; Corno, Anna Rosa; Cighetti, Giuliana; Parodi, Oberdan

2012-01-01

We hypothesized that redox analysis could provide sensitive markers of the oxidative pathway associated to the presence of an increasing number of cardiovascular risk factors (RFs), independently of type. We classified 304 subjects without cardiovascular disease into 4 groups according to the total number of RFs (smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hyperhomocysteinaemia, diabetes, obesity, and their combination). Oxidative stress was evaluated by measuring plasma total and reduced h...
From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their
Integrated and Total HIV-1 DNA Predict Ex Vivo Viral Outgrowth.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maja Kiselinova

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The persistence of a reservoir of latently infected CD4 T cells remains one of the major obstacles to cure HIV. Numerous strategies are being explored to eliminate this reservoir. To translate these efforts into clinical trials, there is a strong need for validated biomarkers that can monitor the reservoir over time in vivo. A comprehensive study was designed to evaluate and compare potential HIV-1 reservoir biomarkers. A cohort of 25 patients, treated with suppressive antiretroviral therapy was sampled at three time points, with median of 2.5 years (IQR: 2.4-2.6 between time point 1 and 2; and median of 31 days (IQR: 28-36 between time point 2 and 3. Patients were median of 6 years (IQR: 3-12 on ART, and plasma viral load (<50 copies/ml was suppressed for median of 4 years (IQR: 2-8. Total HIV-1 DNA, unspliced (us and multiply spliced HIV-1 RNA, and 2LTR circles were quantified by digital PCR in peripheral blood, at 3 time points. At the second time point, a viral outgrowth assay (VOA was performed, and integrated HIV-1 DNA and relative mRNA expression levels of HIV-1 restriction factors were quantified. No significant change was found for long- and short-term dynamics of all HIV-1 markers tested in peripheral blood. Integrated HIV-1 DNA was associated with total HIV-1 DNA (p<0.001, R² = 0.85, us HIV-1 RNA (p = 0.029, R² = 0.40, and VOA (p = 0.041, R2 = 0.44. Replication-competent virus was detected in 80% of patients by the VOA and it correlated with total HIV-1 DNA (p = 0.039, R² = 0.54. The mean quantification difference between Alu-PCR and VOA was 2.88 log10, and 2.23 log10 between total HIV-1 DNA and VOA. The levels of usHIV-1 RNA were inversely correlated with mRNA levels of several HIV-1 restriction factors (TRIM5α, SAMHD1, MX2, SLFN11, pSIP1. Our study reveals important correlations between the viral outgrowth and total and integrated HIV-1 DNA measures, suggesting that the total pool of HIV-1 DNA may predict the size of the
Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.
Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.
Incidental Parathyroidectomy during Total Thyroidectomy: Risk Factors and Consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios K. Manatakis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the incidence of accidental parathyroidectomy in our series of total thyroidectomies, to investigate its clinical and biochemical consequences, and to identify potential risk factors. Methods. Patients who underwent total thyroidectomy between January 2006 and December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Pathology reports were reviewed to identify those cases who had an incidental parathyroidectomy and these were compared to patients with no parathyroidectomy, in terms of clinical (age, sex, and symptoms of hypocalcemia, pathological (thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy, and biochemical (serum calcium and phosphate levels factors. Results. 281 patients underwent total thyroidectomy during the study period. Incidental parathyroidectomy was noticed in 24.9% of cases, with 44.3% of parathyroid glands found in an intrathyroidal location. Evidence of postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia was noticed in 28.6% of patients with parathyroidectomy, compared with 13.3% in the no-parathyroidectomy group (p=0.003. Symptomatic hypocalcemia was observed in 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively (p=0.49. Age, sex, thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusions. Our study found an association of incidental parathyroidectomy with transient postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia, but not with clinically symptomatic disease. Age, sex, thyroid gland weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy were not identified as risk factors.
Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartmann, M; Schneider, U

2014-01-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.
Optimising an integrated crop-livestock farm using risk programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SE Visagie

2004-06-01

Full Text Available Numerous studies have analysed farm planning decisions focusing on producer risk preferences. Few studies have focussed on the farm planning decisions in an integrated croplivestock farm context. Income variability and means of managing risk continues to receive much attention in farm planning research. Different risk programming models have attempted to focus on minimising the income variability of farm activities. This study attempts to identify the optimal mix of crops and the number of animals the farm needs to keep in the presence of crop production risk for a range of risk levels. A mixed integer linear programming model was developed to model the decision environment faced by an integrated crop-livestock farmer. The deviation of income from the expected value was used as a measure of risk. A case study is presented with representative data from a farm in the Swartland area. An investigation of the results of the model under different constraints shows that, in general, strategies that depend on crop rotation principles are preferred to strategies that follow mono-crop production practices.
Preoperative Optimization of Total Joint Arthroplasty Surgical Risk: Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Fournier, Matthew N; Hallock, Justin; Mihalko, William M

2016-08-01

Obesity is a problem that is increasing in prevalence in the United States and in other countries, and it is a common comorbidity in patients seeking total joint arthroplasty for degenerative musculoskeletal diseases. Obesity, as well as commonly associated comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and those contributing to the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome, have been shown to have detrimental effects on total joint arthroplasty outcomes. Although there are effective surgical and nonsurgical interventions which can result in weight loss in these patients, concomitant benefit on arthroplasty outcomes is not clear. Preoperative optimization of surgical risk in obese total joint arthroplasty patients is an important point of intervention to improve arthroplasty outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk factors for postoperative complications after total laryngectomy following radiotherapy or chemoradiation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wulff, N B; Kristensen, C.A.; Andersen, E

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To determine the rates of and risk factors for postoperative complications following total laryngectomy in patients treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiation. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Tertiary medical centres. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 143 patients undergoin...
An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.
Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed
TOWARDS TOTAL INTEGRATION IN DESIGN STUDIO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shireesh A Deshpande

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Transmission of knowledge has been defined as “bringing the right knowledge by the right route at the right time to the right places.” In this context there is need to analyze the various pedagogical shifts associated with the decisive process of transmission and transaction of knowledge in design studio. Critical understanding of the importance of tangential knowledge and its integration within the design studio, leading to a comprehensive whole, is a significant aspect to be properly evolved and nourished in the studio. It can be argued that knowledge is not a substitute for architectural imagination but inadequate knowledge would handicap the general level of design. Being satisfied to manipulate formal configurations does not provide insights into the human experience. If the different types of knowledge that architecture requires are ignored, the profession will lose its credibility in the eyes of society. With the body of knowledge expanding diversely with the escalating wants of the user, and to further sustain the built environment with further progression, it’s quite certain to have an innovative design process that has a feel of antecedents yet is nourished by rationalism. Architectural Design is to an extent the yield of a creative process brought out through a refined approach, skill, and dexterity to suit the purpose. The assessors, the jury, or the teacher has created an aura of mystique around good design, without much explaining what good design is. Architectural education involves application of a theory of knowledge – what is known and how it is to be known. Nothing is taught unless it is learnt (Bono. Does the key to these issues lie in shifting from conventional mode to Total Integration Mode of Education?
Three-tiered integration of PACS and HIS toward next generation total hospital information system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, J H; Lee, D H; Choi, J W; Cho, H I; Kang, H S; Yeon, K M; Han, M C

1998-01-01

The Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH) started a project to innovate the hospital information facilities. This project includes installation of high speed hospital network, development of new HIS, OCS (order communication system), RIS and PACS. This project aims at the implementation of the first total hospital information system by seamlessly integrating these systems together. To achieve this goal, we took three-tiered systems integration approach: network level, database level, and workstation level integration. There are 3 loops of networks in SNUH: proprietary star network for host computer based HIS, Ethernet based hospital LAN for OCS and RIS, and ATM based network for PACS. They are linked together at the backbone level to allow high speed communication between these systems. We have developed special communication modules for each system that allow data interchange between different databases and computer platforms. We have also developed an integrated workstation in which both the OCS and PACS application programs run on a single computer in an integrated manner allowing the clinical users to access and display radiological images as well as textual clinical information within a single user environment. A study is in progress toward a total hospital information system in SNUH by seamlessly integrating the main hospital information resources such as HIS, OCS, and PACS. With the three-tiered systems integration approach, we could successfully integrate the systems from the network level to the user application level.

Optimization of total arc degree for stereotactic radiotherapy by using integral biologically effective dose and irradiated volume

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Do Hoon; Kim, Dae Yong; Lee, Myung Za; Chun, Ha Chung

2001-01-01

To find the optimal values of total arc degree to protect the normal brain tissue from high dose radiation in stereotactic radiotherapy planning. With Xknife-3 planning system and 4 MV linear accelerator, the authors planned under various values of parameters. One isocenter, 12, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mm of collimator diameters, 100 deg, 200 deg, 300 deg, 400 deg, 500 deg, 600 deg, of total arc degrees, and 30 deg or 45 deg of arc intervals were used. After the completion of planning, the plans were compared each other using V 50 (the volume of normal brain that is delivered high dose radiation) and integral biologically effective dose. At 30 deg of arc interval, the values of V 50 had the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, the values of V 50 decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. At 30 deg of arc interval, integral biologically effective dose showed the decreased pattern with the increase of total arc degree in any collimator diameter. At 45 deg arc interval with less than 40 mm collimator diameter, the integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but with 50 and 60 mm of collimator diameters, up to 400 deg of total arc degree, integral biologically effective dose decreased with the increase of total arc degree, but at 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees, the values increased. In the stereotactic radiotherapy planning for brain lesions, planning with 400 deg of total arc degree is optimal. Especially, when the larger collimator more than 50 mm diameter should be used, the uses of 500 deg and 600 deg of total arc degrees make the increase of V 50 and integral biologically effective dose, Therefore stereotactic radiotherapy planning using 400 deg of total arc degree can increase the therapeutic ratio and produce the effective outcome
Total and Direct Correlation Function Integrals from Molecular Simulation of Binary Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wedberg, Nils Hejle Rasmus Ingemar; O’Connell, John P.; Peters, Günther H.J.

2011-01-01

The possibility for obtaining derivative properties for mixtures from integrals of spatial total and direct correlation functions obtained from molecular dynamics simulations is explored. Theoretically well-supported methods are examined to extend simulation radial distribution functions to long...... are consistent with an excess Helmholtz energy model fitted to available simulations. In addition, simulations of water/methanol and water/t-butanol mixtures have been carried out. The method yields results for partial molar volumes, activity coefficient derivatives, and individual correlation function integrals...... in reasonable agreement with smoothed experimental data. The proposed method for obtaining correlation function integrals is shown to perform at least as well as or better than two previously published approaches....
Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders
Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LOBER, R.W.

2002-01-01

Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to
Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

2015-01-13

An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a
Application of Total Quality Management (TQM Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Entisar K. Al-Geelawee

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated. The research has consist of two main parts firstly have included a review of the most important concepts of total quality management in addition to the concept of risk analysis and management in construction projects and how to apply the concept of total quality management in the risk analysis and management. Second part included the practical part of the research, which was open and closed questionnaire for experts in the construction industry to obtain required informations for the application of total quality management requirements in risk management in construction projects in Iraq. One of the main findings of the research is that top management support has a high impact on risk management in addition to continuous improvement, training and education, while the participation of all employees in the organization and constant stimulation and focusing on the customer as one of the total quality management requirements had a moderate impact on risk management.
Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

2016-01-01

Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High
Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, R.; Voet, van der, H.; Braak, ter, C.J.F.

2015-01-01

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5?200?nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrate...
NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

2015-01-01

NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.
Stock Market Integration: Are Risk Premiums of International Assets Equal?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kusdhianto Setiawan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper studies previous research on capital market integration and applies a simple international capital asset pricing model by considering the incompleteness in market integration and heteroscedasticity of the market returns. When we disregarded those two factors, we found that stock markets were integrated and the law of one price on risk premiums prevails. However, when the factors were considered, the markets were just partially integrated.
Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1992-01-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance
The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Chen

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.
Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

2009-01-01

Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)
Total Dose Effects on Bipolar Integrated Circuits at Low Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, A. H.; Swimm, R. T.; Thorbourn, D. O.

2012-01-01

Total dose damage in bipolar integrated circuits is investigated at low temperature, along with the temperature dependence of the electrical parameters of internal transistors. Bandgap narrowing causes the gain of npn transistors to decrease far more at low temperature compared to pnp transistors, due to the large difference in emitter doping concentration. When irradiations are done at temperatures of -140 deg C, no damage occurs until devices are warmed to temperatures above -50 deg C. After warm-up, subsequent cooling shows that damage is then present at low temperature. This can be explained by the very strong temperature dependence of dispersive transport in the continuous-time-random-walk model for hole transport. For linear integrated circuits, low temperature operation is affected by the strong temperature dependence of npn transistors along with the higher sensitivity of lateral and substrate pnp transistors to radiation damage.
Industrial implementation issues of Total Site Heat Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chew, Kew Hong; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír; Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah; Abdul Manan, Zainuddin

2013-01-01

Heat Integration has been a well-established energy conservation strategy in the industry. Total Site Heat Integration (TSHI) has received growing interest since its inception in the 90s. The methodology has been used with certain simplifications to solve TSHI problems. This paper investigates the main issues that can influence the practical implementation of TSHI in the industry. The main aim is to provide an assessment and possible guidance for future development and extension of the TSHI methodology from the industrial perspective. Several key issues have been identified as being of vital importance for the industries: design, operation, reliability/availability/maintenance, regulatory/policy and economics. Design issues to consider include plant layout, pressure drop, etc. For operation, issues such as startup and shutdown need to be considered. Reliability, availability and maintenance (RAM) are important as they directly affect the production. Relevant government policy and incentives are also important when considering the options for TSHI. Finally, a TSHI system needs to be economically viable. This paper highlights the key issues to be considered for a successful implementation of TSHI. The impacts of these issues on TS integration are summarised in a matrix, which forms a basis for an improved and closer-to-real-life implementation of the TSHI methodology. Highlights: ► Current TSHI methodology has been used for solving models with certain simplifications. ► Several issues that can influence practical implementation of TSHI are identified. ► Impacts of these issues on safety, environment and economics are evaluated. ► The findings form a basis for an improved and practical implementation of TSHI
Total Quality Management and Organizational Behavior Management: An Integration for Continual Improvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Mawhinney, Thomas C.

1992-01-01

The history and main features of organizational behavior management (OBM) are compared and integrated with those of total quality management (TQM), with emphasis on W.E. Deming's 14 points and OBM's operant-based approach to performance management. Interventions combining OBM, TQM, and statistical process control are recommended. (DB)
Increasing risk of prosthetic joint infection after total hip arthroplasty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dale, Håvard; Fenstad, Anne M; Hallan, Geir

2012-01-01

Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods The...... explain this increase. We believe that there has been an actual increase in the incidence of prosthetic joint infections after THA.......Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods...... The study was based on the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) dataset. 432,168 primary THAs from 1995 to 2009 were included (Denmark: 83,853, Finland 78,106, Norway 88,455, and Sweden 181,754). Adjusted survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models with revision due to infection...
Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

2018-03-01

The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.
Plasma Total Cysteine and Cardiovascular Risk Burden: Action and Interaction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benedetta De Chiara

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We hypothesized that redox analysis could provide sensitive markers of the oxidative pathway associated to the presence of an increasing number of cardiovascular risk factors (RFs, independently of type. We classified 304 subjects without cardiovascular disease into 4 groups according to the total number of RFs (smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hyperhomocysteinaemia, diabetes, obesity, and their combination. Oxidative stress was evaluated by measuring plasma total and reduced homocysteine, cysteine (Cys, glutathione, cysteinylglycine, blood reduced glutathione, and malondialdehyde. Twenty-seven percent of subjects were in group 0 RF, 26% in 1 RF, 31% in 2 RF, and 16% in ≥3 RF. By multivariable ordinal regression analysis, plasma total Cys was associated to a higher number of RF (OR = 1.068; 95% CI = 1.027–1.110, =0.002. Total RF burden is associated with increased total Cys levels. These findings support a prooxidant effect of Cys in conjunction with RF burden, and shed light on the pathophysiologic role of redox state unbalance in preclinical atherosclerosis.
Integrated methodology for production related risk management of vehicle electronics (IMPROVE)

OpenAIRE

Geis, Stefan Rafael

2006-01-01

This scientific work is designated to provide an innovative and integrated conceptional approach to improve the assembly quality of automotive electronics. This is achieved by the reduction and elimination of production related risks of automotive electronics and the implementation of a sustainable solution process. The focus is the development and implementation of an integrated technical risk management approach for automotive electronics throughout the vehicle life cycle and the vehicle pr...

Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Ihor; Voloshyn, Mykyta

2013-01-01

In this article, on the basis of the "cash flow at risk" approach, the system of the integrated (credit, market, operational and liquidity risks) risk management in a market-maker commercial bank is developed. This system guarantees reaching profitability, liquidity and coverage of banking risks and thus allows the fullest protection of the interests of depositors, creditors and shareholders of the bank providing its sustainable development.
Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty : An ESDMA Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.

2012-01-01

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations
On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

Science.gov (United States)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In
Industrial water resources management based on violation risk analysis of the total allowable target on wastewater discharge.

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Wencong; Cai, Yanpeng; Xu, Linyu; Yang, Zhifeng; Yin, Xin'An; Su, Meirong

2017-07-11

To improve the capabilities of conventional methodologies in facilitating industrial water allocation under uncertain conditions, an integrated approach was developed through the combination of operational research, uncertainty analysis, and violation risk analysis methods. The developed approach can (a) address complexities of industrial water resources management (IWRM) systems, (b) facilitate reflections of multiple uncertainties and risks of the system and incorporate them into a general optimization framework, and (c) manage robust actions for industrial productions in consideration of water supply capacity and wastewater discharging control. The developed method was then demonstrated in a water-stressed city (i.e., the City of Dalian), northeastern China. Three scenarios were proposed according to the city's industrial plans. The results indicated that in the planning year of 2020 (a) the production of civilian-used steel ships and machine-made paper & paperboard would reduce significantly, (b) violation risk of chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge under scenario 1 would be the most prominent, compared with those under scenarios 2 and 3, (c) the maximal total economic benefit under scenario 2 would be higher than the benefit under scenario 3, and (d) the production of rolling contact bearing, rail vehicles, and commercial vehicles would be promoted.
Risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hassan, Basim Kamil; Sahlström, Arne; Dessau, Ram Benny Christian

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Renal injury and dysfunction are serious complications after major surgery, which may lead to increased morbidity and mortality. The objective of our study was to identify the possible risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement surger...... creatinine. Smoking, diabetes mellitus, high BMI, gender, and duration of surgery were not identified as significant risk factors........ METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among 599 consecutive primary hip joint replacements performed between January 2011 and December 2013. According to the RIFLE criteria, increased postoperative serum creatinine was considered indicative of postoperative renal injury. The Welch two-sample test......, hypertension, general anesthesia, high ASA scores, low intra-operative systolic BP, and prophylactic dicloxacillin as significant risk factors. Low baseline systolic BP, low baseline diastolic blood pressure, and hip fracture diagnosis were independent risk factors for postoperative increase in serum...
Towards risk-based structural integrity methods for PWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, O.J.V.; Lloyd, R.B.

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development of risk-based structural integrity assurance methods and their application to Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) plant. In-service inspection is introduced as a way of reducing the failure probability of high risk sites and the latter are identified using reliability analysis; the extent and interval of inspection can also be optimized. The methodology is illustrated by reference to the aspect of reliability of weldments in PWR systems. (author)
Integration of virtual control units in the total vehicle simulation; Integration virtueller Steuergeraete in die Gesamtfahrzeugsimulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soppa, Andreas; Lund, Christoph [Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg (Germany)

2012-11-01

In this article the simulation of information and energetics of vehicles with model-integration of electronic control units (ECU) in a simulation, based on the coupling of physical and control components of the total vehicle are investigated. For that simplified models of ECU's, simulating the functionally of the real ECU's, were used. The integration of virtual EUC's in models of full vehicles makes it possible to simulate the energetics for different driving cycles in a realistic way. By better simulation results an evaluation of physical components and the amount of functions are possible. In the area of the thermal management of vehicles by this analyses and optimizations of functions become possible. This article shows the advantages of embedding virtual ECU's in simulations of full vehicles. (orig.)
The background and theory of integrated risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Hunsucker, John L.

1995-01-01

While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.
Development of a totally integrated severe accident training system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ko Ryu; Park, Sun Hee; Choi, Young; Kim, Dong Ha

2006-01-01

Recently KAERI has developed the severe accident management guidance to establish the Korea standard severe accident management system. On the other hand the PC-based severe accident training simulator SATS has been developed, which uses the MELCOR code as the simulation engine. The simulator SATS graphically displays and simulates the severe accidents with interactive user commands. Especially the control capability of SATS could make a severe accident training course more interesting and effective. In this paper we will describe the development and functions of the electrical guidance module, HyperKAMG, and the SATS-HyperKAMG linkage system designed for a totally integrated and automated severe accident training. (author)
Total quality through computer integrated manufacturing in the pharmaceutical industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Ufret, C M

1995-01-01

The role of Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) in the pursue of total quality in pharmaceutical manufacturing is assessed. CIM key objectives, design criteria, and performance measurements, in addition to its scope and implementation in a hierarchical structure, are explored in detail. Key elements for the success of each phase in a CIM project and a brief status of current CIM implementations in the pharmaceutical industry are presented. The role of World Class Manufacturing performance standards and other key issues to achieve full CIM benefits are also addressed.
Total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea intake and gastric cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanikini, Harinakshi; Dik, Vincent K; Siersema, Peter D

2015-01-01

Prospective studies examining the association between coffee and tea consumption and gastric cancer risk have shown inconsistent results. We investigated the association between coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea consumption and the risk of gastric cancer by anatomical site...... and histological type in the EPIC study. Coffee and tea consumption was assessed by dietary questionnaires at baseline. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression models. During 11.6 years of follow up, 683 gastric adenocarcinoma cases were identified among 477,312 participants. We found......) and tea (HR 0.81, 95%-CI: 0.59-1.09; quartile 4 vs. non/quartile 1). When stratified by anatomical site, we observed a significant positive association between gastric cardia cancer risk and total coffee consumption per increment of 100mL/day (HR 1.06, 95%-CI: 1.03-1.11). Similarly, a significant positive...
BMI, total and abdominal fat distribution, and cardiovascular risk factors in school-age children.

Science.gov (United States)

Gishti, Olta; Gaillard, Romy; Durmus, Busra; Abrahamse, Marieke; van der Beek, Eline M; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; de Jonge, Layla L; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2015-05-01

More specific total body and abdominal fat mass measures might be stronger associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, than BMI. We examined the independent associations of total and abdominal fat measures with cardiovascular risk factors in school age children. We performed a population-based cohort study among 6,523 children. At the age of 6 y, we measured childhood BMI, and general and abdominal fat mass, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and ultrasound and cardiovascular risk factors. Conditional on BMI, higher fat mass percentage and abdominal fat mass were associated with higher blood pressure, total- and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, insulin and c-peptide levels, but with lower left ventricular mass and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (P values children. Higher childhood adiposity measures were associated with increased odds of cardiovascular risk factors clustering, with the strongest effect for fat mass percentage (odds ratios: 3.01 (95% confidence interval: 2.67, 3.9). Our results suggest that general and abdominal fat measures are associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, independent from BMI. These measures may provide additional information for identification of children with an adverse cardiovascular profile.
A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

2013-10-15

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.
A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management
Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...
Methods of assessing total doses integrated across pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grzechnik, M.; Camplin, W.; Clyne, F.; Allott, R.; Webbe-Wood, D.

2006-01-01

Calculated doses for comparison with limits resulting from discharges into the environment should be summed across all relevant pathways and food groups to ensure adequate protection. Current methodology for assessments used in the radioactivity in Food and the Environment (R.I.F.E.) reports separate doses from pathways related to liquid discharges of radioactivity to the environment from those due to gaseous releases. Surveys of local inhabitant food consumption and occupancy rates are conducted in the vicinity of nuclear sites. Information has been recorded in an integrated way, such that the data for each individual is recorded for all pathways of interest. These can include consumption of foods, such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs, fruit and vegetables, milk and meats. Occupancy times over beach sediments and time spent in close proximity to the site is also recorded for inclusion of external and inhalation radiation dose pathways. The integrated habits survey data may be combined with monitored environmental radionuclide concentrations to calculate total dose. The criteria for successful adoption of a method for this calculation were: Reproducibility can others easily use the approach and reassess doses? Rigour and realism how good is the match with reality?Transparency a measure of the ease with which others can understand how the calculations are performed and what they mean. Homogeneity is the group receiving the dose relatively homogeneous with respect to age, diet and those aspects that affect the dose received? Five methods of total dose calculation were compared and ranked according to their suitability. Each method was labelled (A to E) and given a short, relevant name for identification. The methods are described below; A) Individual doses to individuals are calculated and critical group selection is dependent on dose received. B) Individual Plus As in A, but consumption and occupancy rates for high dose is used to derive rates for application in
Preoperative risk factors in total thyroidectomy of substernal goiter

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bove A

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Aldo Bove, Raffaella Maria Di Renzo, Gauro D’Urbano, Manuela Bellobono, Vincenzo D’ Addetta, Alfonso Lapergola, Giuseppe Bongarzoni Department of Medicine, Dentistry and Biotechnology, University “G. d’Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Chieti Scalo, Italy Abstract: The definition of substernal goiter (SG is based on variable criteria leading to a considerable variation in the reported incidence (from 0.2% to 45%. The peri- and postoperative complications are higher in total thyroidectomy (TT for SG than that for cervical goiter. The aim of this study was to evaluate the preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative complications. From 2002 to 2014, 142 (8.5%; 98 women and 44 men of the 1690 patients who underwent TT had a SG. We retrospectively evaluated the following parameters: sex, age, histology, pre- and retrovascular position, recurrence, and extension beyond the carina. These parameters were then related to the postoperative complications: seroma/hematoma, transient and permanent hypocalcemia, transient and permanent laryngeal nerve palsy, and the length of surgery. The results were further compared with a control group of 120 patients operated on in the same period with TT for cervical goiter. All but two procedures were terminated via cervicotomy, where partial sternotomies were required. No perioperative mortality was observed. Results of the statistical analysis (Student’s t-test and Fisher’s exact test indicated an association between recurrence and extension beyond the carina with all postoperative complications. The group that underwent TT of SG showed a statistically significant higher risk for transient hypocalcemia (relative risk =1.767 with 95% confidence interval: 1.131–2.7605, P=0.0124, and need to treat =7.1 and a trend toward significance for transient recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy (relative risk =6.7806 with 95% confidence interval: 0.8577–53.2898, P=0.0696, and need to treat =20.8 compared to the
Analyzing Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk for Complex Product Systems R&D Projects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhe Xu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The vast majority of the research efforts in project risk management tend to assess cost risk and schedule risk independently. However, project cost and time are related in reality and the relationship between them should be analyzed directly. We propose an integrated cost and schedule risk assessment model for complex product systems R&D projects. Graphical evaluation review technique (GERT, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distribution theory are utilized to establish the model. In addition, statistical analysis and regression analysis techniques are employed to analyze simulation outputs. Finally, a complex product systems R&D project as an example is modeled by the proposed approach and the simulation outputs are analyzed to illustrate the effectiveness of the risk assessment model. It seems that integrating cost and schedule risk assessment can provide more reliable risk estimation results.
A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

2007-01-01

Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments
Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

2009-01-01

techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

University Lawyers: A Study of Legal Risk, Risk Management and Role in Work Integrated Learning Programmes

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Craig; Klopper, Christopher

2015-01-01

Work integrated learning (WIL) is in growing demand by multiple stakeholders within the higher education sector in Australia. There are significant and distinct legal risks to universities associated with WIL programmes. University lawyers, along with WIL administrators and university management, are responsible for managing legal risk. This…
Risk assessment concept in the new approach directives and its integration in the Enterprise Risk Management (ERM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đapić Mirko

2012-03-01

Full Text Available In the nineties years of the previous century, the European Union achieved, through introducing the New and Global Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a significant improvement in the approach to conformity assessment of products, by integrating the requirements for technical products safety into the process of its designing. This was achieved by preventive analyzing and quantifying of risk levels in the design process with the objective of determining the scope of the needed safety systems. On the other hand, we have witnessed a rapid development and implementation of holistic approaches to risks management in enterprises, unified in the modern business practice by the name of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM. Going along that line, the paper presents, through the basis of the EU New and Global Approach, the concept of risk assessment in the New Approach directives (Machinery, Lifts, ATEX, etc and provides the concept of its integration into the holistic approach of risks management in enterprises, such as ERM.
Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...
Integration of electrochemistry in micro-total analysis systems for biochemical assays: recent developments.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiaoli; Zhang, Song; Chen, Hui; Kong, Jilie

2009-11-15

Micro-total analysis systems (microTAS) integrate different analytical operations like sample preparation, separation and detection into a single microfabricated device. With the outstanding advantages of low cost, satisfactory analytical efficiency and flexibility in design, highly integrated and miniaturized devices from the concept of microTAS have gained widespread applications, especially in biochemical assays. Electrochemistry is shown to be quite compatible with microanalytical systems for biochemical assays, because of its attractive merits such as simplicity, rapidity, high sensitivity, reduced power consumption, and sample/reagent economy. This review presents recent developments in the integration of electrochemistry in microdevices for biochemical assays. Ingenious microelectrode design and fabrication methods, and versatility of electrochemical techniques are involved. Practical applications of such integrated microsystem in biochemical assays are focused on in situ analysis, point-of-care testing and portable devices. Electrochemical techniques are apparently suited to microsystems, since easy microfabrication of electrochemical elements and a high degree of integration with multi-analytical functions can be achieved at low cost. Such integrated microsystems will play an increasingly important role for analysis of small volume biochemical samples. Work is in progress toward new microdevice design and applications.
Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Aalst, M.

2006-08-01

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current
Having a Go: Looking at Teachers' Experience of Risk-Taking in Technology Integration

Science.gov (United States)

Howard, Sarah K.; Gigliotti, Amanda

2016-01-01

Risk is an integral part of change. Technology-related change in teachers' practice is guided by confidence engaging in and beliefs about integration. However, it is also affected by how teachers feel about taking risks, experimenting and change. This paper presents a theoretical framework of affect and emotion to understand how teachers…
STEAM GENERATOR TUBE INTEGRITY ANALYSIS OF A TOTAL LOSS OF ALL HEAT SINKS ACCIDENT FOR WOLSONG NPP UNIT 1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

HEOK-SOON LIM

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS and the steam generator (SG secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident.
Steam Generator Tube Integrity Analysis of A Total Loss of all Heat Sinks Accident for Wolsong NPP Unit 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, Heoksoon; Song, Taeyoung; Chi, Moongoo [Korea Htydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seoungrae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-02-15

A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV) become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS) and the steam generator (SG) secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident.
Steam Generator Tube Integrity Analysis of A Total Loss of all Heat Sinks Accident for Wolsong NPP Unit 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Heoksoon; Song, Taeyoung; Chi, Moongoo; Kim, Seoungrae

2014-01-01

A total loss of all heat sinks is considered a severe accident with a low probability of occurrence. Following a total loss of all heat sinks, the degasser/condenser relief valves (DCRV) become the sole means available for the depressurization of the primary heat transport system. If a nuclear power plant has a total loss of heat sinks accident, high-temperature steam and differential pressure between the primary heat transport system (PHTS) and the steam generator (SG) secondary side can cause a SG tube creep rupture. To protect the PHTS during a total loss of all heat sinks accident, a sufficient depressurization capability of the degasser/condenser relief valve and the SG tube integrity is very important. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the discharge through these valves is necessary to assess the impact of the PHTS overprotection and the SG tube integrity of the primary circuit. This paper describes the analysis of DCRV discharge capacity and the SG tube integrity under a total loss of all heat sink using the CATHENA code. It was found that the DCRV's discharge capacity is enough to protect the overpressure in the PHTS, and the SG tube integrity is maintained in a total loss of all heat accident
A Proactive Approach to High Risk Delirium Patients Undergoing Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Duque, Andres F; Post, Zachary D; Orozco, Fabio R; Lutz, Rex W; Ong, Alvin C

2018-04-01

Delirium is a common complication among elderly patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Its incidence has been reported from 4% to 53%. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services consider delirium following TJA a "never-event." The purpose of this study is to evaluate a simple perioperative protocol used to identify delirium risk patients and prevent its incidence following TJA. Our group developed a protocol to identify and prevent delirium in patients undergoing TJA. All patients were screened and scored in the preoperative assessment, on criteria such as age, history of forgetfulness, history of agitation or visual hallucinations, history of falls, history of postoperative confusion, and inability to perform higher brain functions. Patients were scored on performance in a simple mental examination. The patients were classified as low, medium, or high risk. Patients who were identified as high risk were enrolled in a delirium avoidance protocol that minimized narcotics and emphasized nursing involvement and fluids administration. Five of 7659 (0.065%) consecutive TJA patients from 2010 to 2015 developed delirium. A total of 422 patients were identified as high risk. All 5 patients who suffered delirium were within the high risk group. No low or medium risk patients suffered a delirium complication. Three (0.039%) patients suffered drug-induced delirium, 1 (0.013%) had delirium related to alcohol withdrawal, and 1 (0.013%) had delirium after a systemic infection. This protocol is effective in identifying patients at high delirium risk and diminishing the incidence of this complication by utilizing a simple screening tool and perioperative protocol. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Risk management: integration of social and technical risk variables into safety assessments of LWR'S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turnage, J.J.; Husseiny, A.A.

1980-01-01

A risk management methodology is developed here to formalize the acceptability levels of commercial LWR power plants via the estimation of risk levels acceptable to the public and the integration of such estimates into risk-benefit analysis. Utility theory is used for developing preference models based on value trade-offs among multiple objectives and uncertainties about the impact of alternatives. The method involves reducing the various variables affecting safety acceptability decisions to a single function that provides a metric for acceptability levels. The function accomondates for technical criteria related to design and licensing decisions, as well as public reactions to certain choices
The total theory about risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Furuya, Shunsuke

2003-01-01

A general working procedure of risk management, some example of other countries, topics and problems in the future are described. A definition of risk, risk assessment, risk management process, setting of aim and definite policy are explained. As a fundamental way of thinking, risk is controlled by ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable). The upper and lower limit of risk level is called as Quantitative Safety Goal and Target Level of Safety, respectively. These limits in the atomic power and airplane are decided. Evaluation of risk, countermeasure and practice are explained. For example, a permissible range of risk and practical use in England, U.S.A, Holland and Japan are stated. Recently, accountability risk, missing demand risk and control risk are important. (S.Y.)
Riesgo familiar total en familias con escolares según rendimiento académico Risco familiar total em famílias com escolares conforme aproveitamento acadêmico Total family risk in families with schoolchildren according to academic performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CAROLINA LUCERO ENRÍQUEZ GUERRERO

comparativo transversal com um componente analítico e abordagem quantitativa; a amostra foi de 186 famílias, durante abril -julho de 2007. Os resultados apresentam predomínio de famílias nucleares em ambos os grupos (65%, relação inversa entre o risco familiar total avaliado pelo instrumento RFT 7-70 e o aproveitamento acadêmico do escolar da família, isto é, que as famílias que registraram alto risco (9% e meio (31% em maior proporção são famílias de escolares com baixo aproveitamento acadêmico, comparado com o predomínio de risco familiar baixo (78% nas famílias de crianças de alto aproveitamento. Aplicou-se a t de student para diferença de médias e verificou-se uma associação (P = 0,02 entre o risco familiar total alto e o baixo aproveitamento acadêmico do escolar. Em conclusão, estes resultados sugerem principalmente que é preciso priorizar os fatores de risco que determinam maior risco familiar em famílias com escolares de aproveitamento acadêmico alto e cuidar a saúde integral com uma abordagem familiar e intersectorial, além de participar ativamente nas comunidades, continuar pesquisando sobre as possíveis associações entre a saúde individual, práticas de saúde, educação, ambiente socioeconômico e psicoafetivo da família, e o sucesso educativo de escolares em famílias com idade escolar.This article presents the results of a study whose objective was to establish the family risk differences among two groups of families: one with schoolchildren that show high academic performance and children that show low academic performance in an educational center in Bogotá. Methodology: cross-sectional comparative study with and analytic component and a quantitative approach; the sample was 186 families during the period April-July 2007. The results show a predominance of nuclear families in both groups (65%, reverse relation between the family risk evaluated by the RFT 7-70 instrument and the academic performance of the family´s schoolchild
Riesgo familiar total en familias con escolares según rendimiento académico Total family risk in families with schoolchildren according to academic performance Risco familiar total em famílias com escolares conforme aproveitamento acadêmico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CATAÑO ORDÓÑEZ NHORA

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Este artículo presenta los resultados del estudio cuyo objetivo fue establecer las diferencias en el riesgo familiar entre dos grupos de familias: con niños escolares de alto rendimiento y niños de bajo rendimiento académico en un centro educativo distrital de Bogotá. Metodología: estudio descriptivo comparativo transversal con un componente analítico y abordaje cuantitativo; la muestra fue de 186 familias, durante abril a julio de 2007. Los resultados muestran predominio de familias nucleares en ambos grupos (65%, relación inversa entre el riesgo familiar total evaluado por el instrumento RFT 7-70 y el rendimiento académico del escolar de la familia, es decir que las familias que registraron riesgo alto (9% y medio (31% en mayor proporción son familias con escolares de bajo rendimiento académico, frente al predominio del riesgo familiar bajo (78% en las familias con niños de alto rendimiento. Se aplicó t de student para diferencia de medias y se encontró asociación (P = 0,02 entre el riesgo familiar total alto y el bajo rendimiento académico del escolar. En conclusión, estos resultados sugieren principalmente que se deben priorizar los factores de riesgo que determinan mayor riesgo familiar en familias con escolares de bajo rendimiento académico y dar atención de salud integral con enfoque familiar e intersectorial, y participación activa de la comunidad. Continuar investigando en posibles asociaciones entre salud individual, prácticas de salud, educación, ambiente socioeconómico y psicoafectivo de la familia y el logro educativo de escolares en familias con niños en edad escolar.This article presents the results of a study whose objective was to establish the family risk differences among two groups of families: one with schoolchildren that show high academic performance and children that show low academic performance in an educational center in Bogotá. Methodology: cross-sectional comparative study with and
Daily total physical activity level and total cancer risk in men and women: results from a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Manami; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Kurahashi, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2008-08-15

The impact of total physical activity level on cancer risk has not been fully clarified, particularly in non-Western, relatively lean populations. The authors prospectively examined the association between daily total physical activity (using a metabolic equivalents/day score) and subsequent cancer risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. A total of 79,771 general-population Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 1995-1999 were followed for total cancer incidence (4,334 cases) through 2004. Compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, increased daily physical activity was associated with a significantly decreased risk of cancer in both sexes. In men, hazard ratios for the second, third, and highest quartiles were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.07), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.96), respectively (p for trend = 0.005); in women, hazard ratios were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.05), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.97), respectively (p for trend = 0.007). The decreased risk was more clearly observed in women than in men, especially among the elderly and those who regularly engaged in leisure-time sports or physical exercise. By site, decreased risks were observed for cancers of the colon, liver, and pancreas in men and for cancer of the stomach in women. Increased daily physical activity may be beneficial in preventing cancer in a relatively lean population.
Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)
Route assessment using comparative risk factors integrated through a GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toth, D.M.; O'Connell, W.J.

1996-01-01

The assessment of potential alternative routes for the shipment of spent nuclear fuel was simplified through the use of comparative risk factors evaluated using detailed route and environmental attributes. The route characteristics, integrated into risk measures, vary strongly with location and were developed from national, state, and local sources. The route data and evaluation were managed using a geographic information system (GIS). An assessment of four real North Florida routes was performed and an interstate highway route exhibited the lowest risk based on the application of the risk factors
Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644
Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-11-13

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.
Risk factors for revision of primary total hip arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prokopetz Julian JZ

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous papers have been published examining risk factors for revision of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA, but there have been no comprehensive systematic literature reviews that summarize the most recent findings across a broad range of potential predictors. Methods We performed a PubMed search for papers published between January, 2000 and November, 2010 that provided data on risk factors for revision of primary THA. We collected data on revision for any reason, as well as on revision for aseptic loosening, infection, or dislocation. For each risk factor that was examined in at least three papers, we summarize the number and direction of statistically significant associations reported. Results Eighty-six papers were included in our review. Factors found to be associated with revision included younger age, greater comorbidity, a diagnosis of avascular necrosis (AVN as compared to osteoarthritis (OA, low surgeon volume, and larger femoral head size. Male sex was associated with revision due to aseptic loosening and infection. Longer operating time was associated with revision due to infection. Smaller femoral head size was associated with revision due to dislocation. Conclusions This systematic review of literature published between 2000 and 2010 identified a range of demographic, clinical, surgical, implant, and provider variables associated with the risk of revision following primary THA. These findings can inform discussions between surgeons and patients relating to the risks and benefits of undergoing total hip arthroplasty.

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.
Lifetime total and beverage specific - alcohol intake and prostate cancer risk: a case-control study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carruba Giuseppe

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We investigated lifetime alcohol consumption and prostate cancer risk in a case-control study conducted in Buffalo, NY (1998–2001. Methods The study included 88 men, aged 45 to 85 years with incident, histologically-confirmed prostate cancer and 272 controls. We conducted extensive in-person interviews regarding lifetime alcohol consumption and other epidemiologic data. Results Prostate cancer risk was not associated with lifetime intake of total and beverage specific ethanol. In addition we found no association with number of drinks per day (average drinks per day over the lifetime or drinks per drinking day (average drinks per day on drinking days only over the lifetime. However, we observed an inverse association with the total number of drinking years. Men in the lowest tertile of total drinking years had a two-fold prostate cancer risk than men in the highest tertile (OR 2.16, 95% CI 0.98–4.78, p for trend Conclusion Our results suggest that alcohol intake distribution across lifetime may play a more important role in prostate cancer etiology than total lifetime consumption.
Individualized Risk Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Parvizi, Javad; Huang, Ronald; Rezapoor, Maryam; Bagheri, Behrad; Maltenfort, Mitchell G

2016-09-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is a potentially fatal complication. Currently, a standard protocol for postoperative VTE prophylaxis is used that makes little distinction between patients at varying risks of VTE. We sought to develop a simple scoring system identifying patients at higher risk for VTE in whom more potent anticoagulation may need to be administered. Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample data, 1,721,806 patients undergoing TJA were identified, among whom 15,775 (0.9%) developed VTE after index arthroplasty. Among the cohort, all known potential risk factors for VTE were assessed. An initial logistic regression model using potential predictors for VTE was performed. Predictors with little contribution or poor predictive power were pruned from the data, and the model was refit. After pruning of variables that had little to no contribution to VTE risk, using the logistic regression, all independent predictors of VTE after TJA were identified in the data. Relative weights for each factor were determined. Hypercoagulability, metastatic cancer, stroke, sepsis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had some of the highest points. Patients with any of these conditions had risk for postoperative VTE that exceeded the 3% rate. Based on the model, an iOS (iPhone operating system) application was developed (VTEstimator) that could be used to assign patients into low or high risk for VTE after TJA. We believe individualization of VTE prophylaxis after TJA can improve the efficacy of preventing VTE while minimizing untoward risks associated with the administration of anticoagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
[Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Risk factors for acute nerve injury after total knee arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Shetty, Teena; Nguyen, Joseph T; Sasaki, Mayu; Wu, Anita; Bogner, Eric; Burge, Alissa; Cogsil, Taylor; Dalal, Aashka; Halvorsen, Kristin; Cummings, Kelianne; Su, Edwin P; Lyman, Stephen

2018-06-01

In this we study identified potential risk factors for post-total knee arthroplasty (TKA) nerve injury, a catastrophic complication with a reported incidence of 0.3%-1.3%. Patients who developed post-TKA nerve injury from 1998 to 2013 were identified, and each was matched with 2 controls. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to calculate odds ratios (ORs). Sixty-five nerve injury cases were identified in 39,990 TKAs (0.16%). Females (OR 3.28, P = 0.003) and patients with history of lumbar pathology (OR 6.12, P = 0.026) were associated with increased risk of nerve injury. Tourniquet pressure nerve injury was unexpected and requires further investigation. Muscle Nerve 57: 946-950, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

2004-01-01

Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)
Test methods of total dose effects in very large scale integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Chaohui; Geng Bin; He Baoping; Yao Yujuan; Li Yonghong; Peng Honglun; Lin Dongsheng; Zhou Hui; Chen Yusheng

2004-01-01

A kind of test method of total dose effects (TDE) is presented for very large scale integrated circuits (VLSI). The consumption current of devices is measured while function parameters of devices (or circuits) are measured. Then the relation between data errors and consumption current can be analyzed and mechanism of TDE in VLSI can be proposed. Experimental results of 60 Co γ TDEs are given for SRAMs, EEPROMs, FLASH ROMs and a kind of CPU
Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

2013-09-15

Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.
Lifetime risk of primary total hip replacement surgery for osteoarthritis from 2003-2013

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ackerman, Ilana N; Bohensky, Megan A; de Steiger, Richard

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement surgery (THR) for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. METHODS: Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, N....... These multi-national risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....
Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management - 12097

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pentz, David L.; Stoll, Ralph H.; Greeves, John T. [Predicus LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States); Miller, R. Ian [GoldSim Technology Group, LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States); Nutt, W. Mark [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)

2012-07-01

The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation's nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM 'owns' a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors. Each contaminated building, land area and waste stream is tracked from cradle to grave, and all of the linkages affecting different waste streams are captured. The progression of the activities is fully dynamic, reflecting DOE-EM's prioritization approaches, precedence requirements, available funding, and the consequences of risks and uncertainties. The top level of PRISM is the end-user interface that allows rapid evaluation of alternative scenarios and viewing the results in a variety of useful ways. PRISM is a fully probabilistic model, allowing the user to specify uncertainties in input data (such as the magnitude of an existing groundwater plume, or the total cost to complete a planned activity) as well as specific risk events that might occur. PRISM is based on the GoldSim software
Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Garcin, M.; Desprats, J. F.; Fontaine, M.; Pedreros, R.; Attanayake, N.; Fernando, S.; Siriwardana, C. H. E. R.; de Silva, U.; Poisson, B.

2008-06-01

The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed). Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS) on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka. The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka. This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation of these risks. The coastal-hazards-and-risks
Integrated approach for coastal hazards and risks in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Garcin

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The devastating impact of the tsunami of 26 December 2004 on the shores of the Indian Ocean recalled the importance of knowledge and the taking into account of coastal hazards. Sri Lanka was one of the countries most affected by this tsunami (e.g. 30 000 dead, 1 million people homeless and 70% of the fishing fleet destroyed. Following this tsunami, as part of the French post-tsunami aid, a project to establish a Geographical Information System (GIS on coastal hazards and risks was funded. This project aims to define, at a pilot site, a methodology for multiple coastal hazards assessment that might be useful for the post-tsunami reconstruction and for development planning. This methodology could be applied to the whole coastline of Sri Lanka.

The multi-hazard approach deals with very different coastal processes in terms of dynamics as well as in terms of return period. The first elements of this study are presented here. We used a set of tools integrating a GIS, numerical simulations and risk scenario modelling. While this action occurred in response to the crisis caused by the tsunami, it was decided to integrate other coastal hazards into the study. Although less dramatic than the tsunami these remain responsible for loss of life and damage. Furthermore, the establishment of such a system could not ignore the longer-term effects of climate change on coastal hazards in Sri Lanka.

This GIS integrates the physical and demographic data available in Sri Lanka that is useful for assessing the coastal hazards and risks. In addition, these data have been used in numerical modelling of the waves generated during periods of monsoon as well as for the December 2004 tsunami. Risk scenarios have also been assessed for test areas and validated by field data acquired during the project. The results obtained from the models can be further integrated into the GIS and contribute to its enrichment and to help in better assessment and mitigation
Atypical audiovisual speech integration in infants at risk for autism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeanne A Guiraud

Full Text Available The language difficulties often seen in individuals with autism might stem from an inability to integrate audiovisual information, a skill important for language development. We investigated whether 9-month-old siblings of older children with autism, who are at an increased risk of developing autism, are able to integrate audiovisual speech cues. We used an eye-tracker to record where infants looked when shown a screen displaying two faces of the same model, where one face is articulating/ba/and the other/ga/, with one face congruent with the syllable sound being presented simultaneously, the other face incongruent. This method was successful in showing that infants at low risk can integrate audiovisual speech: they looked for the same amount of time at the mouths in both the fusible visual/ga/- audio/ba/and the congruent visual/ba/- audio/ba/displays, indicating that the auditory and visual streams fuse into a McGurk-type of syllabic percept in the incongruent condition. It also showed that low-risk infants could perceive a mismatch between auditory and visual cues: they looked longer at the mouth in the mismatched, non-fusible visual/ba/- audio/ga/display compared with the congruent visual/ga/- audio/ga/display, demonstrating that they perceive an uncommon, and therefore interesting, speech-like percept when looking at the incongruent mouth (repeated ANOVA: displays x fusion/mismatch conditions interaction: F(1,16 = 17.153, p = 0.001. The looking behaviour of high-risk infants did not differ according to the type of display, suggesting difficulties in matching auditory and visual information (repeated ANOVA, displays x conditions interaction: F(1,25 = 0.09, p = 0.767, in contrast to low-risk infants (repeated ANOVA: displays x conditions x low/high-risk groups interaction: F(1,41 = 4.466, p = 0.041. In some cases this reduced ability might lead to the poor communication skills characteristic of autism.
Integration of laboratory bioassays into the risk-based corrective action process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards, D.; Messina, F.; Clark, J.

1995-01-01

Recent data generated by the Gas Research Institute (GRI) and others indicate that residual hydrocarbon may be bound/sequestered in soil such that it is unavailable for microbial degradation, and thus possibly not bioavailable to human/ecological receptors. A reduction in bioavailability would directly equate to reduced exposure and, therefore, potentially less-conservative risk-based cleanup soil goals. Laboratory bioassays which measure bioavailability/toxicity can be cost-effectively integrated into the risk-based corrective action process. However, in order to maximize the cost-effective application of bioassays several site-specific parameters should be addressed up front. This paper discusses (1) the evaluation of parameters impacting the application of bioassays to soils contaminated with metals and/or petroleum hydrocarbons and (2) the cost-effective integration of bioassays into a tiered ASTM type framework for risk-based corrective action
The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study).

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stol, D.; Badenbroek, I.; Hollander, M.; Nielen, M.; Schellevis, F.; Wit, N. de

2014-01-01

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an integrated cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment program in primary care (the INTEGRATE study): a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial protocol. Rationale: The increasing prevalence of cardiometabolic disease (CMD), including cardiovascular
Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

2012-03-01

Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright Â© 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Total luminous flux measurement for flexible surface sources with an integrating sphere photometer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Hsueh-Ling; Liu, Wen-Chun

2014-01-01

Applying an integrating sphere photometer for total luminous flux measurement is a widely used method. However, the measurement accuracy depends on the spatial uniformity of the integrating sphere, especially when the test sample has a different light distribution from that of the standard source. Therefore, spatial correction is needed to eliminate the effect caused by non-uniformity. To reduce the inconvenience of spatial correction but retain the measurement accuracy, a new type of working standard is designed for flexible and curved surface sources. Applying this new type standard source, the measurement deviation due to different orientations is reduced by an order of magnitude compared with using a naked incandescent lamp as the standard source. (paper)
The Strategic and Legal Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: An Enterprise Risk Management Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Craig

2017-01-01

Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business for universities. WIL is a strategic risk worthy of pursuing by universities in the prevailing higher education environment, which is characterized by competition, changes in funding arrangements and stakeholder demand for WIL. Nevertheless the strategic opportunities that WIL presents cannot be…
Risk and Work Configuration Management as a Function of Integrated Safety Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lana Buehrer; Michele Kelly; Fran Lemieux; Fred Williams

2007-01-01

National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), has established a work management program and corresponding electronic Facilities and Operations Management Information System (e-FOM) to implement Integrated Safety Management (ISM). The management of work scopes, the identification of hazards, and the establishment of implementing controls are reviewed and approved through electronic signatures. Through the execution of the program and the implementation of the electronic system, NSTec staff work within controls and utilize feedback and improvement process. The Integrated Work Control Manual further implements the five functions of ISM at the Activity level. By adding the Risk and Work Configuration Management program, NSTec establishes risk acceptance (business and physical) for liabilities within the performance direction and work management processes. Requirements, roles, and responsibilities are specifically identified in the program while e-FOM provides the interface and establishes the flowdown from the Safety Chain to work and facilities management processes to company work-related directives, and finally to Subject Matter Expert concurrence. The Program establishes, within the defined management structure, management levels for risk identification, risk mitigation (controls), and risk acceptance (business and physical) within the Safety Chain of Responsibility. The Program also implements Integrated Safeguards and Security Management within the NSTec Safety Chain of Responsibility. Once all information has been entered into e-FOM, approved, and captured as data, the information becomes searchable and sortable by hazard, location, organization, mitigating controls, etc
Social Integration and Reduced Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women: The Role of Lifestyle Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Shun-Chiao; Glymour, Maria; Cornelis, Marilyn; Walter, Stefan; Rimm, Eric B; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D

2017-06-09

Higher social integration is associated with lower cardiovascular mortality; however, whether it is associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in women, and whether associations differ by case fatality are unclear. This study sought to examine the associations between social integration and risk of incident CHD in a large female prospective cohort. Seventy-six thousand three hundred and sixty-two women in the Nurses' Health Study, free of CHD and stroke at baseline (1992), were followed until 2014. Social integration was assessed by a simplified Berkman-Syme Social Network Index every 4 years. End points included nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two incident CHD events occurred throughout follow-up. Adjusting for demographic, health/medical risk factors, and depressive symptoms, being socially integrated was significantly associated with lower CHD risk, particularly fatal CHD. The most socially integrated women had a hazard ratio of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.73) of developing fatal CHD compared with those least socially integrated ( P for trend social integration and nonfatal myocardial infarction risk were largely explained by health-promoting behaviors, particularly through differences in cigarette smoking; however, the association with fatal CHD risk remained after accounting for these behaviors and, thus, may involve more direct biological mechanisms. Social integration is inversely associated with CHD incidence in women, but is largely explained by lifestyle/behavioral pathways. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Dislocation of primary total hip arthroplasty and the risk of redislocation.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Brennan, Stephen A

2012-09-01

6554 primary total hip arthroplasties were reviewed. Risk factors for dislocation were analysed to assess which were important in terms of predicting recurrent instability. The patients risk of having a second dislocation was independently associated with the surgical approach adopted (p = 0.03) and the time to first dislocation from the primary hip replacement (p = 0.002). Early dislocators whose surgery was performed through an anterolateral approach had less recurrence than late dislocators through a posterior or transtrochanteric approach. None of the other risk factors including head size (p = 0.59), modularity (p = 0.54), mechanism of dislocation (p = 0.23), leg length discrepancy (p = 0.69) and acetabular inclination (p = 0.31) were influential. The use of an abduction brace was not useful in preventing a further dislocation with 69.2% of those braced re-dislocating compared to 68.5% who were not braced (p = 0.96).
Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

2016-01-06

Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data
Selecting a Risk-Based SQC Procedure for a HbA1c Total QC Plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Westgard, Sten A; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, James O

2017-09-01

Recent US practice guidelines and laboratory regulations for quality control (QC) emphasize the development of QC plans and the application of risk management principles. The US Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) now includes an option to comply with QC regulations by developing an individualized QC plan (IQCP) based on a risk assessment of the total testing process. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) has provided new practice guidelines for application of risk management to QC plans and statistical QC (SQC). We describe an alternative approach for developing a total QC plan (TQCP) that includes a risk-based SQC procedure. CLIA compliance is maintained by analyzing at least 2 levels of controls per day. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a graphical tool to simplify the selection of risk-based SQC procedures. Current HbA1c method performance, as demonstrated by published method validation studies, is estimated to be 4-Sigma quality at best. Optimal SQC strategies require more QC than the CLIA minimum requirement of 2 levels per day. More complex control algorithms, more control measurements, and a bracketed mode of operation are needed to assure the intended quality of results. A total QC plan with a risk-based SQC procedure provides a simpler alternative to an individualized QC plan. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a practical tool for selecting appropriate control rules, numbers of control measurements, and run size (or frequency of SQC). Applications demonstrate the need for continued improvement of analytical performance of HbA1c laboratory methods.
Using integrated environmental modeling to automate a process-based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, an...
NRC integrated program for the resolution of Unresolved Safety Issues A-3, A-4 and A-5 regarding steam generator tube integrity: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-09-01

This report presents the results of the NRC integrated program for the resolution of Unresolved Safety Issues (USIs) A-3, A-4, and A-5 regarding steam generator tube integrity. A generic risk assessment is provided and indicates that risk from steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) events is not a significant contributor to total risk at a given site, nor to the total risk to which the general public is routinely exposed. This finding is considered to be indicative of the effectiveness of licensee programs and regulatory requirements for ensuring steam generator tube integrity in accordance with 10 CFR 50, Appendices A and B. This report also identifies a number of staff-recommended actions that the staff finds can further improve the effectiveness of licensee programs in ensuring the integrity of steam generator tubes and in mitigating the consequences of an SGTR. As part of the integrated program, the staff issued Generic Letter 85-02 encouraging licensees of pressurized water reactors (PWRs) to upgrade their programs, as necessary, to meet the intent of the staff-recommended actions; however, such actions do not constitute NRC requirements. In addition, this report describes a number of ongoing staff actions and studies involving steam generator issues which are being pursued to provide added assurance that risk from SGTR events will continue to be small. 146 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs
Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F.; Diallo, I.; Samand, A.; Hawkins, M.; Oberlin, O.; Lefkopoulos, D.

2006-01-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)
Risk of a second malignant neoplasm after cancer in childhood treated with radiotherapy: correlation with the integral dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nguyen, F.; Rubino, C.; Guerin, S.; de Vathaire, F. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Diallo, I.; Samand, A. [National Institute of Public Health and Medical Research (INSERM) Unit 605, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, (France); Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Hawkins, M. [Centre for Childhood Cancer Survivor Studies, University of Birmingham, Birmingham (United Kingdom); Oberlin, O. [Paediatrics Department, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Lefkopoulos, D. [Medical Physics and Radiotherapy Departments, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France)

2006-07-01

In the cohort, among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose had a higher risk. Among the other patients, including 80% of the variability of the integral dose, no increased risk was evidenced. Thus, the integral dose in the study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risk. (N.C.)
Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of Accounting Information Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudiu BRANDAS

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The use of IT in the financial and accounting processes is growing fast and this leads to an increase in the research and professional concerns about the risks, control and audit of Ac-counting Information Systems (AIS. In this context, the risk and control of AIS approach is a central component of processes for IT audit, financial audit and IT Governance. Recent studies in the literature on the concepts of risk, control and auditing of AIS outline two approaches: (1 a professional approach in which we can fit ISA, COBIT, IT Risk, COSO and SOX, and (2 a research oriented approach in which we emphasize research on continuous auditing and fraud using information technology. Starting from the limits of existing approaches, our study is aimed to developing and testing an Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of AIS on three cycles of business processes: purchases cycle, sales cycle and cash cycle in order to improve the efficiency of IT Governance, as well as ensuring integrity, reality, accuracy and availability of financial statements.
Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2015-01-01

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources
Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-06-15

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.
Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

2012-11-01

Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.
Total sitting time, leisure time physical activity and risk of hospitalization due to low back pain

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balling, Mie; Holmberg, Teresa; Petersen, Christina B

2018-01-01

AIMS: This study aimed to test the hypotheses that a high total sitting time and vigorous physical activity in leisure time increase the risk of low back pain and herniated lumbar disc disease. METHODS: A total of 76,438 adults answered questions regarding their total sitting time and physical...... activity during leisure time in the Danish Health Examination Survey 2007-2008. Information on low back pain diagnoses up to 10 September 2015 was obtained from The National Patient Register. The mean follow-up time was 7.4 years. Data were analysed using Cox regression analysis with adjustment...... disc disease. However, moderate or vigorous physical activity, as compared to light physical activity, was associated with increased risk of low back pain (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30 and HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83). Moderate, but not vigorous physical activity was associated with increased risk...
High dietary protein intake is associated with an increased body weight and total death risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Alonso, Pablo; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Corella, Dolores; Estruch, Ramón; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Basora, Josep; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Buil-Cosiales, Pilar; Saiz, Carmen; Bulló, Mònica

2016-04-01

High dietary protein diets are widely used to manage overweight and obesity. However, there is a lack of consensus about their long-term efficacy and safety. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of long-term high-protein consumption on body weight changes and death outcomes in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. A secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial was conducted. Dietary protein was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire during the follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for protein intake in relation to the risk of body weight and waist circumference changes, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular death, cancer death and total death. Higher total protein intake, expressed as percentage of energy, was significantly associated with a greater risk of weight gain when protein replaced carbohydrates (HR: 1.90; 95%CI: 1.05, 3.46) but not when replaced fat (HR: 1.69; 95%CI: 0.94, 3.03). However, no association was found between protein intake and waist circumference. Contrary, higher total protein intake was associated with a greater risk of all-cause death in both carbohydrate and fat substitution models (HR: 1.59; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.35; and HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.13, 2.43, respectively). A higher consumption of animal protein was associated with an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal outcomes when protein substituted carbohydrates or fat. Higher dietary protein intake is associated with long-term increased risk of body weight gain and overall death in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaomei; Van Der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G; Ritsema, Coen J; Geissen, Violette

2016-05-01

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide displacement by runoff and erosion that explicitly accounts for water infiltration, erosion, runoff, and pesticide transport and degradation in soil. The conceptual framework was based on broadly accepted assumptions such as the convection-dispersion equation and lognormal distributions of soil properties associated with transport, sorption, degradation, and erosion. To illustrate the concept, a few assumptions are made with regard to runoff in relatively flat agricultural fields: dispersion is ignored and erosion is modelled by a functional relationship. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the total mass of pesticide associated with soil eroded by water scouring increased with slope, rain intensity, and water field capacity of the soil. The mass of transported pesticide decreased as the micro-topography of the soil surface became more distinct. The timing of pesticide spraying and rate of degradation before erosion negatively affected the total amount of transported pesticide. The mechanisms involved in pesticide displacement, such as runoff, infiltration, soil erosion, and pesticide transport and decay in the topsoil, were all explicitly accounted for, so the mathematical complexity of their description can be high, depending on the situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Integration of social perception in flash flood risk management for resilience improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Diez-Herrero, Andres; Amerigo, Maria; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Olcina-Cantos, Jorge

2015-04-01

Spain is, behind Switzerland, the second most mountainous country in Europe, which determines that after the occurrence of heavy or intense rainfall events, a fast hydrological response takes place due to steep slopes and strong hydrological connectivity. As a result, flash floods are, among natural hazards, the main social risk in Spain. In fact, they have provoked some of the greatest natural disasters in recent history of the country (e.g. Yebra and Almoguera in 1995, Biescas in 1996 or Badajoz in 1997, which totalized more than 200 deceased in the last decades). This work is focused on the village of Navaluenga (Central Spain), in which we have been studying flash floods, under the consideration of different perspectives and using different approaches, for the past 20 years; and in which the regional government has recently approved the Civil Protection Plan.In this research, we examine social perception of flash floodsthrough surveys and interviews; one turn previous to the communication plan and other one after this dissemination activities to population. To this end, the individual and groupal differences were explored, by taking into account socio-demographic variables. In addition, we have considered psychological and material dimensions of vulnerability associated to flood risk, as well as to the emotional dimension through the consideration of psyco-environmental variables.Thus, this research aims to identify what aspects of the social perception differs from scientific/technical knowledge acquired which, in turn, may decrease the efficiency of a risk mitigation plan or even determine its failure. To minimize this lack of harmony, and at the same time to increase awareness of population, we propose a risk communication plan to improve preparedness of the community. To this end, we propose an approach in which messages reach the population quickly and in an understandable way. In this regard, risk communication is based on the integration of suitable
Smoking, body weight, physical exercise, and risk of lower limb total joint replacement in a population-based cohort of men.

Science.gov (United States)

Mnatzaganian, George; Ryan, Philip; Norman, Paul E; Davidson, David C; Hiller, Janet E

2011-08-01

To assess the associations of smoking, body weight, and physical activity with risk of undergoing total joint replacement (TJR) in a population-based cohort of men. A cohort study of 11,388 men that integrated clinical data with hospital morbidity data and mortality records was undertaken. The risk of undergoing TJR was modeled on baseline weight, height, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, years of smoking, and exercise in 3 separate age groups, using Cox proportional hazards regressions and competing risk regressions (CRRs). Dose-response relationships between weight and risk of TJR and between smoking and risk of TJR were observed. Being overweight independently increased the risk of TJR, while smoking lowered the risk. The decreased risk among smokers was demonstrated in both Cox and CRR models and became apparent after 23 years of exposure. Men who were in the highest quartile (≥48 years of smoking) were 42-51% less likely to undergo TJR than men who had never smoked. Tests for trend in the log hazard ratios (HRs) across both smoking and weight quantiles yielded significant P values. Vigorous exercise increased the hazard of TJR; however, the association reached statistical significance only in the 70-74-year-old age group (adjusted HR 1.64 [95% confidence interval 1.19-2.24]). Adjusting for Deyo-Charlson Index or Elixhauser's comorbidity measures did not eliminate these associations. Our findings indicate that being overweight and reporting vigorous physical activity increase the risk of TJR. This study is the first to demonstrate a strong inverse dose-response relationship between duration of smoking and risk of TJR. More research is needed to better understand the role of smoking in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Rheumatology.
Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

Science.gov (United States)

Parkash Gupta, Surya

2015-04-01

The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.
Diabetes Mellitus and Hyperglycemia and the Risk of Aseptic Loosening in Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Maradit Kremers, Hilal; Schleck, Cathy D; Lewallen, Eric A; Larson, Dirk R; Van Wijnen, Andre J; Lewallen, David G

2017-09-01

It is unknown to what extent diabetes mellitus modifies the long-term risk of aseptic loosening in total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We examined the association between diabetes mellitus, perioperative hyperglycemia, and the likelihood of revisions for aseptic loosening. We studied 16,085 primary THA and TKA procedures performed at a large tertiary care hospital between 2002 and 2009. All blood glucose values around the time of surgery (within 1 week) were retrieved. Subsequent revision surgeries and the reasons for revision were ascertained through the institutional joint registry. Multivariate Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aseptic loosening associated with diabetes mellitus and hyperglycemia adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and surgery type. A total of 2911 (18%) surgeries had a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus at the time of surgery. Glucose testing was performed at least once in 7055 (44%) procedures within ±1 week of surgery. Although diabetic patients did not experience a higher risk of revision for aseptic loosening (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.55-1.38), higher preoperative glucose values on the day before surgery were significantly associated with both the overall risk of revisions (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.00-7.85) and revisions for aseptic loosening (HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.26-19.54). High preoperative hyperglycemia is a potential risk factor for aseptic loosening in THA and TKA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
EPICO 4.0. 'Total quality' in the management of invasive candidiasis in critically ill patients by analysing the integrated process.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaragoza, Rafael; Ferrer, Ricard; Llinares, Pedro; Maseda, Emilio; Rodríguez, Alejandro; Grau, Santiago; Quindós, Guillermo

A high quality integrated process in the clinical setting of non-neutropenic critically ill patients at risk for invasive candidiasis is a necessary tool to improve the management of these patients. To identify the key points on invasive candidiasis in order to develop a set of recommendations with a high level of consensus required for the creation of a total quality integrated process for the management of non-neutropenic critically ill patients at risk of invasive candidiasis. After a thorough review of the literature of the previous five years, a Spanish prospective questionnaire, which measured consensus by the Delphi technique, was anonymously conducted by e-mail, including 31 national multidisciplinary experts with extensive experience in invasive fungal infections, from six national scientific societies. The experts included a specialist in intensive care medicine, anesthetists, microbiologists, pharmacologists, and specialists in infectious diseases that responded 27 questions prepared by the coordination group. The educational objectives considered six processes that included knowledge of the local epidemiology, the creation and development of multidisciplinary teams, the definitions of the process, protocols, and indicators (KPI), an educational phase, hospital implementation, and the measurement of outcomes. The level of agreement among experts in each category to be selected should exceed 70%. In a second phase, after drawing up the recommendations of the selected processes, a face to face meeting with more than 60 specialists was held. The specialists were asked to validate the pre-selected recommendations. Firstly, 20 recommendations from all the sections were pre-selected: Knowledge of local epidemiology (3 recommendations), creation and development of multidisciplinary teams (3), definition of the process, protocols and indicators (1), educational phase (3), hospital implementation (3), and measurement of outcomes (7). After the second phase, 18

Dependent failure analysis research for the US NRC Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Stack, D.W.; Campbell, D.J.; Rooney, J.J.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1985-01-01

The Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP), which is being performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories, has the goals of developing new risk assessment methods and integrating the new and existing methods in a uniform procedure for performing an in-depth probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with consistent levels of analysis for internal, external, and dependent failure scenarios. An important part of RMIEP is the recognition of the crucial importance of dependent common cause failures (CCFs) and the pressing need to develop effective methods for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. The NRC-sponsored Integrated Dependent Failure Methodology Program at Sandia is addressing this need. This paper presents a preliminary approach for analyzing CCFs as part of a PRA. A nine-step procedure for efficiently screening and analyzing dependent failure scenarios is presented, and each step is discussed
A Look at the Practice of Risk Classification: Integrative Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luiz Alves Morais Filho

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction: the increase in the number of patients in emergency services / emergency brought the need for screening / risk classification as a way to organize the urgency and emergency care in the health institutions. Objectives: know how to develop the risk classification practice in the Brazilian reality using the scientific production, the insertion of nurses in risk classification using the Brazilian scientific production. Methods: an integrative review was carried out, the data occurred during September 2015 in the following databases: Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline, and the Latin American and Caribbean System of Information on Health Sciences (LILACS "GOOGLE SCHOLAR." Results: it found 9,874 articles and selected 33 for analysis. The results were organized in 04 categories: Risk classification as assistance qualifier; risk classification’s organization; operation weaknesses of the risk classification and nurse's role in risk classification. Conclusion: We conclude that the risk classification qualifies the assistance in emergency services; there are many difficulties for the risk classification’s operation and the nurse has been established as a professional with technical and legal competence to perform the risk classification.
Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
Real-world effectiveness of valsartan on hypertension and total cardiovascular risk: review and implications of a translational research program

Science.gov (United States)

Abraham, Ivo; MacDonald, Karen; Hermans, Christine; Aerts, Ann; Lee, Christopher; Brié, Heidi; Vancayzeele, Stefaan

2011-01-01

The pharmacological efficacy of various monotherapy, single pill, and combination therapies of the angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan have been established, mainly through randomized controlled trials that used similar methodological and statistical platforms and thus enabled synthesis of evidence. The real world effectiveness of valsartan has been studied extensively, but the relative lack of scientific and technical congruence of these studies render synthesis virtually impossible. To date, all have focused on blood pressure outcomes, despite evidence-based calls to grade antihypertensive treatment to patients’ total cardiovascular risk. We review a T3 translational research program of seven studies involving valsartan monotherapy as well as single and separate pill combinations, and the determinants and effect on blood pressure and total cardiovascular risk outcomes. All seven studies examined not only the impact of valsartan-based regimens on blood pressure values and control, but also, within a statistical hierarchical approach, the physician- and patient-related determinants of these blood pressure outcomes. Two studies also investigated the determinants and outcomes of valsartan-based treatment on total cardiovascular risk – among the first studies to use this risk coefficient as an outcome rather than only a determinant. These seven studies included a total of 19,533 patients, contributed by 3434 physician-investigators in Belgium – a country particularly well-suited for observational effectiveness studies because of demographics and epidemiology. Each study used the same methodological and statistical platform. We summarize the impact of various valsartan regimens on such outcomes as blood pressure values and control, change in total cardiovascular risk, and reduction in risk by at least one category. We also review the results of statistical multilevel and logistic modeling of physician- and patient-related determinants on these outcomes
Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.
Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hun Lee

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.
Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies
Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies
VOCs elimination and health risk reduction in e-waste dismantling workshop using integrated techniques of electrostatic precipitation with advanced oxidation technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Jiangyao [State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Huang, Yong [State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Li, Guiying [State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640 (China); An, Taicheng, E-mail: antc99@gig.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry and Guangdong Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Resources Utilization, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640 (China); Hu, Yunkun; Li, Yunlu [Guangzhou Longest Environmental Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510660 (China)

2016-01-25

Highlights: • Pilot-scale investigation of VOCs removal during e-waste dismantling process. • EP-PC-ozonation integrated reactor show high and stable removal ability to VOCs. • Health risks of target VOCs decrease significantly after the treatment. - Abstract: Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted during the electronic waste dismantling process (EWDP) were treated at a pilot scale, using integrated electrostatic precipitation (EP)-advanced oxidation technologies (AOTs, subsequent photocatalysis (PC) and ozonation). Although no obvious alteration was seen in VOC concentration and composition, EP technology removed 47.2% of total suspended particles, greatly reducing the negative effect of particles on subsequent AOTs. After the AOT treatment, average removal efficiencies of 95.7%, 95.4%, 87.4%, and 97.5% were achieved for aromatic hydrocarbons, aliphatic hydrocarbons, halogenated hydrocarbons, as well as nitrogen- and oxygen-containing compounds, respectively, over 60-day treatment period. Furthermore, high elimination capacities were also seen using hybrid technique of PC with ozonation; this was due to the PC unit’s high loading rates and excellent pre-treatment abilities, and the ozonation unit’s high elimination capacity. In addition, the non-cancer and cancer risks, as well as the occupational exposure cancer risk, for workers exposed to emitted VOCs in workshop were reduced dramatically after the integrated technique treatment. Results demonstrated that the integrated technique led to highly efficient and stable VOC removal from EWDP emissions at a pilot scale. This study points to an efficient approach for atmospheric purification and improving human health in e-waste recycling regions.
Integration of transport concepts for risk assessment of pesticide erosion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, Xiaomei; Zee, van der Sjoerd E.A.T.M.; Gai, Lingtong; Wesseling, Jan G.; Ritsema, Coen J.; Geissen, Violette

2016-01-01

Environmental contamination by agrochemicals has been a large problem for decades. Pesticides are transported in runoff and remain attached to eroded soil particles, posing a risk to water and soil quality and human health. We have developed a parsimonious integrative model of pesticide
An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact
Enchanced total dose damage in junction field effect transistors and related linear integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flament, O.; Autran, J.L.; Roche, P.; Leray, J.L.; Musseau, O.

1996-01-01

Enhanced total dose damage of Junction Field-effect Transistors (JFETs) due to low dose rate and/or elevated temperature has been investigated for elementary p-channel structures fabricated on bulk and SOI substrates as well as for related linear integrated circuits. All these devices were fabricated with conventional junction isolation (field oxide). Large increases in damage have been revealed by performing high temperature and/or low dose rate irradiations. These results are consistent with previous studies concerning bipolar field oxides under low-field conditions. They suggest that the transport of radiation-induced holes through the oxide is the underlying mechanism. Such an enhanced degradation must be taken into account for low dose rate effects on linear integrated circuits
Compound risk judgment in tasks with both idiosyncratic and systematic risk: The "Robust Beauty" of additive probability integration.

Science.gov (United States)

Sundh, Joakim; Juslin, Peter

2018-02-01

In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jin Won; Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo

2016-01-01

This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening
Risk and integrity management system for PETRONAS Gas Berhad's gas and liquid hydrocarbon pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khalid, Tuan Hj. Ahmad Nadzri bin; Nasir, Osman; Napiah, Mohd Nazmi Mohd Ali [PETRONAS Gas Berhad, Johor (Malaysia); Choong, Evelyn

2005-07-01

PETRONAS Gas Berhad (PGB), Malaysia currently operates one of Southeast Asia's largest onshore pipeline systems comprising more than 2,500 km of large diameter high pressure gas and liquid transmission, supply and lateral pipelines. Recognizing the value of a risk based approach to pipeline integrity management program, in 2002 PGB implemented a customized and fully integrated Risk and Integrity Management System (RIMS) which included software modules for: data management; semi-quantitative risk assessment; risk control cost benefit analyses; defect assessment; corrosion growth modeling; and reporting. As part of this project, a benchmarking study performed jointly with the contractor, PGB's pipeline integrity programs were also compared with a broad group of international pipeline operators. This study compared the relative ranking position of PGB pre- and post implementation of RIMS. It demonstrated that implementation of RIMS places PGB in a select group of first quartile international pipeline operators, with respect to the implementation of pipeline integrity management best practice. This paper describes the functionalities of RIMS system and how it has benefited PGB, which have been realized to date from its implementation. (author)
Using Integrated Environmental Modeling to Automate a Process-Based Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (presentation)

Science.gov (United States)

Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) organizes multidisciplinary knowledge that explains and predicts environmental-system response to stressors. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is an approach integrating a range of disparate data (fate/transport, exposure, and...
Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

2016-05-01

In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.
Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

1991-01-01

An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents
Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

2010-01-01

A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures
The joint contribution of neighborhood poverty and social integration to mortality risk in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Marcus, Andrea Fleisch; Echeverria, Sandra E; Holland, Bart K; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F; Passannante, Marian R

2016-04-01

A well-established literature has shown that social integration strongly patterns health, including mortality risk. However, the extent to which living in high-poverty neighborhoods and having few social ties jointly pattern survival in the United States has not been examined. We analyzed data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) linked to mortality follow-up through 2006 and census-based neighborhood poverty. We fit Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations between social integration and neighborhood poverty on all-cause mortality as independent predictors and in joint-effects models using the relative excess risk due to interaction to test for interaction on an additive scale. In the joint-effects model adjusting for age, gender, race/ ethnicity, and individual-level socioeconomic status, exposure to low social integration alone was associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.59) while living in an area of high poverty alone did not have a significant effect (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.95-1.28) when compared with being jointly unexposed. Individuals simultaneously living in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and having low levels of social integration had an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35-1.96). However, relative excess risk due to interaction results were not statistically significant. Social integration remains an important determinant of mortality risk in the United States independent of neighborhood poverty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Families at financial risk due to high ratio of out-of-pocket health care expenditures to total income.

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, Kevin J; Dismuke, Clara E

2010-05-01

High out-of-pocket expenditures for health care can put individuals and families at financial risk. Several groups, including racial/ethnic minority groups, the uninsured, rural residents, and those in poorer health are at risk for this increased burden. The analysis utilized 2004-2005 MEPS data. The dependent variables were the out-of-pocket health care spending to total income ratios for total spending, office-based visits, and prescription drugs. Multivariate analyses with instrumental variables controlled for respondent characteristics. Gender, age, rurality, insurance coverage, health status, and health care utilization were all associated with higher out-of-pocket to income ratios. Certain groups, such as women, the elderly, those in poor health, and rural residents, are at a greater financial risk due to their higher out-of-pocket to total income spending ratios. Policymakers must be aware of these increased risks in order to provide adequate resources and targeted interventions to alleviate some of this burden.
Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-08-21

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.
Risk Assessment of Total Coliform in X WTP’s Water Production Using Failure Mode And Effect Analysis Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bella Apriliani Amanda

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The greatest risk of drinking water supply is a failure to provide safe drinking water for communities. Based on IPA Kedunguling testing report on March 2016 noted that sample exceeding the quality standart of Peraturan Menteri Kesehatan RI No 492/2010 for the total coliform quality standart. The presence of total coliforms indicating water contamination by pathogen means the water is not safe to consume. The disinfection process has an importance rule in pathogen inactivation. Disinfectant performance is influenced by temperature, pH, turbidity, and the presence of organic materials. One way to control the quality of water produced by using a risk management approach Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA methods. The potential risks should be measured to determine causes of the problems and find the appropriate risk reduction. The risk assessment is using Risk Priority Number (RPN scale as a basis prioritization of remedial action on issues. Based on identification and risk analysis using FMEA known that the greatest risk of failure is the stipulation of chlorine dose and organic substances (category of high risk level; residual chlorine (category of moderate risk level; turbidity and pH (very low risk level category. Improvement proposal that can be done to reduce total coliforms presence in IPA Kedunguling is by increasing residual chlorine to 0.6 mg/l, set a daily chlorine level, controlling DBPs forming by lowering the concentration of organic precursor using granular activated carbon (GAC or aeration, by lowering the dose of disinfectant, set aside DBPs after the compound is formed using granular activated carbon (GAC, turbidity and pH monitoring, and regularly washing the filters
Real-world effectiveness of valsartan on hypertension and total cardiovascular risk: review and implications of a translational research program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abraham I

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Ivo Abraham1,2, Karen MacDonald2, Christine Hermans3, Ann Aerts3, Christopher Lee2,4, Heidi Brié3, Stefaan Vancayzeele31Center for Health Outcomes and Pharmacoeconomic Research, and Department of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA; 2Matrix45, Earlysville, VA, USA; 3Novartis Pharma, Vilvoorde, Belgium; 4School of Nursing, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USAAbstract: The pharmacological efficacy of various monotherapy, single pill, and combination therapies of the angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan have been established, mainly through randomized controlled trials that used similar methodological and statistical platforms and thus enabled synthesis of evidence. The real world effectiveness of valsartan has been studied extensively, but the relative lack of scientific and technical congruence of these studies render synthesis virtually impossible. To date, all have focused on blood pressure outcomes, despite evidence-based calls to grade antihypertensive treatment to patients' total cardiovascular risk. We review a T3 translational research program of seven studies involving valsartan monotherapy as well as single and separate pill combinations, and the determinants and effect on blood pressure and total cardiovascular risk outcomes. All seven studies examined not only the impact of valsartan-based regimens on blood pressure values and control, but also, within a statistical hierarchical approach, the physician- and patient-related determinants of these blood pressure outcomes. Two studies also investigated the determinants and outcomes of valsartan-based treatment on total cardiovascular risk – among the first studies to use this risk coefficient as an outcome rather than only a determinant. These seven studies included a total of 19,533 patients, contributed by 3434 physician-investigators in Belgium – a country particularly well-suited for observational
European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asche, Frank; Tveteras, Ragnar; Osmundsen, Petter

2002-01-01

Long-term take-or-pay contracts regulating gas exports to the Continent are described and analyzed. We thereafter examine whether the German gas market is integrated. Time series of Norwegian, Dutch and Russian gas export prices to Germany in 1990-1998 are examined. Cointegration tests show that that the different border prices for gas to Germany move proportionally over time, indicating an integrated gas market. We find differences in mean prices, with Russian gas being sold at prices systematically lower than Dutch and Norwegian gas. Among the explanatory factors for price discrepancies are differences in volume flexibility (swing) and perceived political risk
Risk perception and control, an integration of the psychometric research paradigm and social psychology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haugen, K.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: this paper argues that perceptual control is an essential component in human risk evaluation. Control is seen as an integrative concept between the psychometric research paradigm and various psychological theories. The psychometric approach to the study of risk has mainly dealt with the intuitive judgements people do when they are asked to evaluate risky activities and technologies. It shows that people judge risk in relation to the possible consequences and probabilities related to an outcome; the former more typical for the public and the latter more often used by experts. The psychometric research tradition has concentrated on doing human risk evaluations quantifiable and the reactions predictable. This paper also relates to possible practical implications of this strategy, namely that humans react heterogeneously to different kinds of threats due to perceived control. Theoretical ability to explain and elaborate perceptions of risk, as well as individual reactions, were the main criteria for the literature selection, which includes work on e.g. attribution theory, locus of control, and learned helplessness. Thus, the paper addresses available psychological views for a contribution to a developed theoretical framework for human risk evaluation. It seeks to compare and integrate the psychometric research tradition within social psychological theories. The way in which people find their informational basis for their risk judgements, either from others or from their own perceptions is also discussed. Furthermore, the theories are related to the social and psychological reactions of the Chernobyl accident. The paper concludes that psychological theories can contribute to a more comprehensive framework for the understanding of human risk evaluation, leading to a more coherent and integrative knowledge. (author)
Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management

Science.gov (United States)

Greenberg, S.; Gauvreau, L.; Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Finley, R.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

The Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Archer Daniels Midland has implemented a comprehensive communications plan at the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP), a one million metric tonne Carbon Capture and Storage project in Decatur, IL, USA funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory. The IBDP Communication Plan includes consortium information, funding and disclaimer citations, description of target audiences, media communications guidelines, paper and presentations guidelines, site visit information, crisis communication, on-site photography regulations, and other components. The creation, development, and implementation processes for the IBDP Communication Plan (the Plan) are shared in this paper. New communications challenges, such as how to address add-on research requests, data sharing and management, scope increase, and contract agreements have arisen since the Plan was completed in January 2009, resulting in development of new policies and procedures by project management. Integrating communications planning, risk assessment, and project management ensured that consistent, factual information was developed and incorporated into project planning, and constitutes the basis of public communications. Successful integration has allowed the IBDP to benefit from early identification and mitigation of the potential project risks, which allows more time to effectively deal with unknown and unidentified risks that may arise. Project risks and risks associated with public perception can be managed through careful planning and integration of communication strategies into project management and risk mitigation. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Integral Risk Management for DBFM Tenders and Contracts in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wong, J.; Berkelaar, R.; Pekelharing, H.

2015-01-01

This paper presents an overview of an integral risk management approach with emphasis on the relationships with the costing and scheduling processes. Forms of uncertainty related to project planning are classified and implemented in the probabilistic costing and scheduling processes. Furthermore,
An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

1999-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored
An Integrated Cyber Security Risk Management Approach for a Cyber-Physical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halima Ibrahim Kure

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A cyber-physical system (CPS is a combination of physical system components with cyber capabilities that have a very tight interconnectivity. CPS is a widely used technology in many applications, including electric power systems, communications, and transportation, and healthcare systems. These are critical national infrastructures. Cybersecurity attack is one of the major threats for a CPS because of many reasons, including complexity and interdependencies among various system components, integration of communication, computing, and control technology. Cybersecurity attacks may lead to various risks affecting the critical infrastructure business continuity, including degradation of production and performance, unavailability of critical services, and violation of the regulation. Managing cybersecurity risks is very important to protect CPS. However, risk management is challenging due to the inherent complex and evolving nature of the CPS system and recent attack trends. This paper presents an integrated cybersecurity risk management framework to assess and manage the risks in a proactive manner. Our work follows the existing risk management practice and standard and considers risks from the stakeholder model, cyber, and physical system components along with their dependencies. The approach enables identification of critical CPS assets and assesses the impact of vulnerabilities that affect the assets. It also presents a cybersecurity attack scenario that incorporates a cascading effect of threats and vulnerabilities to the assets. The attack model helps to determine the appropriate risk levels and their corresponding mitigation process. We present a power grid system to illustrate the applicability of our work. The result suggests that risk in a CPS of a critical infrastructure depends mainly on cyber-physical attack scenarios and the context of the organization. The involved risks in the studied context are both from the technical and
Guidelineness of the parameters using integrated test in down syndrome risk prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jin Won [Graduate School of Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Go, Sung Jin; Kang, Se Sik; Kim, Chang Soo [Dept. Radiological Science, College of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Pusan, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

This study was an evaluation of the significance of each parameter through aimed at pregnant women subjected to screening test(integrated test) in predicting risk of Down syndrome. We retrospectively analysed the correlation of risk of Down's syndrome with Nuchal Translucency(NT) images measured by ultrasound, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein A(PAPP-A), alpha-fetoprotein(AFP), unconjugated estriol(uE3), human chorionic gonadotrophin(hCG) and Inhibin A by maternal serum. As a result, a significant correlation with NT, uE3, hCG, Inhibin A is revealed with Down's syndrome risk(P<.001). In ROC analysis, AUC of Inhibin A is analysed as the biggest predictor of Down's syndrome(0.859). And the criterion for cut-off was inhibin A 1.4 MoM(sensitivity 81.8%, specificity 75.9%). In conclusion, Inhibin A was the most useful in parameters to predict Down's syndrome in the integrated test. If we make up for the weakness based on the cut-off value of parameters they will be able to be used as an independent indicator in the risk of Down's syndrome screening.
Integrating Physical Actions and Financial Instruments to Manage Environmental Financial Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, B.

2016-12-01

Exposure to extreme weather events can be reduced through physical actions (e.g., dams/reservoirs) or mitigated financially (e.g., insurance). Often physical actions involve investments in expensive infrastructure that reduce exposure, but whose benefits are only occasionally realized. Financial risk management does not reduce the impacts of an event, but rather redistributes them temporally, albeit at a cost. Nonetheless, these costs are typically much smaller, at least in the short run, than those incurred for physical actions. Financial strategies are also more flexible than physical ones in the face of an uncertain future. Financial contracts specifically designed to manage extreme environmental risks are becoming more common and can either replace or complement infrastructural investments as part of a risk management portfolio. In order to make optimal decisions as to the relative levels of physical and financial risk mitigation to employ, it is necessary to understand the relative merits of each strategy. This research develops a method for analyzing tradeoffs between physical and financial risk management strategies. We identify the unique cost and benefit properties of each strategy and integrate them into a single model that details the tradeoffs involved in various portfolios of physical and financial strategies. These methods are then applied to evaluate decisions to pursue emergency dredging during drought on the Mississippi River, which is used to mitigate the increased costs and/or reduced revenues barge operators face when water levels are low. Currently the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funds most emergency dredging operations during major droughts and they are considering more intensive strategies for future droughts. Barge carriers and shippers though could manage at least some portion of their financial risks through a series of existing and experimental financial contracts. This work involves the formulation of these experimental contracts and
QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND INTEGRATED TOTAL QUALITY IN SPANISH MINING: RESULTS OF AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

OpenAIRE

ESCANCIANO, CARMEN; IGLESIAS-RODRÍGUEZ, FRANCISCO-JAVIER

2012-01-01

This paper presents the results of an empirical study conducted in Spain among mining companies that hold ISO 9001 certification. This study aimed at reflecting upon quality management in Spanish mining; and discovering whether the certification of a quality management system provides companies with a framework for integrating total quality management with other management systems, such as environmental management or occupational health and safety management. En este artículo se presentan ...
The Program Risks of Work-Integrated Learning: A Study of Australian University Lawyers

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Craig; Freudenberg, Brett; Giddings, Jeff; Klopper, Christopher

2018-01-01

Work-integrated learning (WIL) is a risky business in higher education. The strategic opportunities that WIL presents for universities cannot be achieved without taking on unavoidable legal risks. University lawyers are involved with managing the legal risks as part of their internal delivery of legal services to universities. It is important to…
Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

Science.gov (United States)

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2006-08-01

A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.
A Review on Methods of Risk Adjustment and their Use in Integrated Healthcare Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Juhnke, Christin; Bethge, Susanne

2016-01-01

Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The objective of this review was to obtain an overview of existing models of risk adjustment as well as on crucial weights in risk adjustment. Moreover, the predictive performance of selected methods in international healthcare systems should be analysed. Theory and methods: A comprehensive, systematic literature review on methods of risk adjustment was conducted in terms of an encompassing, interdisciplinary examination of the related disciplines. Results: In general, several distinctions can be made: in terms of risk horizons, in terms of risk factors or in terms of the combination of indicators included. Within these, another differentiation by three levels seems reasonable: methods based on mortality risks, methods based on morbidity risks as well as those based on information on (self-reported) health status. Conclusions and discussion: After the final examination of different methods of risk adjustment it was shown that the methodology used to adjust risks varies. The models differ greatly in terms of their included morbidity indicators. The findings of this review can be used in the evaluation of integrated healthcare delivery systems and can be integrated into quality- and patient-oriented reimbursement of care providers in the design of healthcare contracts. PMID:28316544
Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these
An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

2013-09-15

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.
Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

2010-09-01

Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public
Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) Version 2.0 user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1990-06-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Also provided in the system is an integrated full-screen editor for use when interfacing with remote mainframe computer systems. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.0 and is the subject of this user's guide. Version 2.0 of IRRAS provides all of the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 9 refs., 292 figs., 4 tabs

Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Yao

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution.
Identification of Major Risk Sources for Surface Water Pollution by Risk Indexes (RI) in the Multi-Provincial Boundary Region of the Taihu Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Hong; Li, Weixin; Qian, Xin

2015-01-01

Environmental safety in multi-district boundary regions has been one of the focuses in China and is mentioned many times in the Environmental Protection Act of 2014. Five types were categorized concerning the risk sources for surface water pollution in the multi-provincial boundary region of the Taihu basin: production enterprises, waste disposal sites, chemical storage sites, agricultural non-point sources and waterway transportations. Considering the hazard of risk sources, the purification property of environmental medium and the vulnerability of risk receptors, 52 specific attributes on the risk levels of each type of risk source were screened out. Continuous piecewise linear function model, expert consultation method and fuzzy integral model were used to calculate the integrated risk indexes (RI) to characterize the risk levels of pollution sources. In the studied area, 2716 pollution sources were characterized by RI values. There were 56 high-risk sources screened out as major risk sources, accounting for about 2% of the total. The numbers of sources with high-moderate, moderate, moderate-low and low pollution risk were 376, 1059, 101 and 1124, respectively, accounting for 14%, 38%, 5% and 41% of the total. The procedure proposed could be included in the integrated risk management systems of the multi-district boundary region of the Taihu basin. It could help decision makers to identify major risk sources in the risk prevention and reduction of surface water pollution. PMID:26308032
Assessment of Total Risk on Non-Target Organisms in Fungicide Application for Agricultural Sustainability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Musa Bozdogan

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In Turkey, in 2010, the amount of pesticide (active ingredient; a.i. used in agriculture was about 23,000 metric tons, of which approximately 32% was fungicides. In 2012, 14 a.i. were used for fungus control in wheat cultivation areas in Adana province, Turkey. These a.i. were: azoxystrobin, carbendazim, difenoconazole, epoxiconazole, fluquinconazole, prochloraz, propiconazole, prothioconazole, pyraclostrobin, spiroxamine, tebuconazole, thiophanate-methyl, triadimenol, and trifloxystrobin. In this study, the potential risk of a.i. on non-target organisms in fungicide application of wheat cultivation was assessed by The Pesticide Occupational and Environmental Risk (POCER indicators. In this study, the highest human health risk was for fluquinconazole (Exceedence Factor (EF 1.798 for human health, whereas the fungicide with the highest environmental risk was propiconazole (EF 2.000 for the environment. For non-target organisms, the highest potential risk was determined for propiconazole when applied at 0.1250 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 2.897. The lowest total risk was for azoxystrobin when applied at 0.0650 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 0.625.
Social Learning through Participatory Integrated Catchment Risk Assessment in the Solomon Islands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzanne Hoverman

2011-06-01

Full Text Available In developed countries a social learning approach has been shown to support Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM by fostering stakeholders' understanding of system complexity, recognition of mutual dependence, appreciation of others' perspectives, and development of the capacity to work together and to create mutual trust. Much less is known about social learning's potential in less developed small island states, particularly postconflict island states, where integration must navigate prescriptive management, limited resources, widely differing world views, a history of adversarial relationships, and unsuccessful attempts at government-community collaboration. This paper analyzes the transformative aspects of a social learning experience that occurred during research facilitating participatory integrated catchment management in the Pacific. The study elicited community and expert knowledge to create systems understanding to generate and analyze complex scenarios for integrated catchment risk assessment in the Kongulai catchment, Solomon Islands. Separate sequenced and then combined discussions led to facilitated exploration of others' subjective assessment of catchment risks and management options. Issues of transparency, trust, accountability, and mutual responsibility were explored in carefully created discursive spaces, assisted by the immediacy of personal contact and the absence of complex bureaucratic structures. Despite historical difficulties, through the use of bridging individuals, participants were generally able to transcend the constraints of their individual knowledge cultures, expand awareness and appreciation of the complexity of human-environment systems for IWRM, and envisage new opportunities for productively working together in integrated catchment management.
An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid
Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
[Risk factors for elevated serum total bile acid in preterm infants].

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yan-Ting; Wang, Yong-Qin; Zhao, Yue-Hua; Zhu, Hai-Ling; Liu, Qian; Zhang, Xiao; Gao, Yi-Wen; Zhang, Wei-Ye; Sang, Yu-Tong

2018-03-01

To study the risk factors for elevated serum total bile acid (TBA) in preterm infants. A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 216 preterm infants who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. According to the presence or absence of elevated TBA (TBA >24.8 μmol/L), the preterm infants were divided into elevated TBA group with 53 infants and non-elevated TBA group with 163 infants. A univariate analysis and an unconditional multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors for elevated TBA. The univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences between the elevated TBA group and the non-elevated TBA group in gestational age at birth, birth weight, proportion of small-for-gestational-age infants, proportion of infants undergoing ventilator-assisted ventilation, fasting time, parenteral nutrition time, and incidence of neonatal respiratory failure and sepsis (PTBA in preterm infants. Low birth weight and neonatal sepsis may lead to elevated TBA in preterm infants.
An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bokan, S.

2009-01-01

CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)
Integration of risk and benefit analysis - The window of benefit as a new tool?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Palou, A.; Pico, C.; Keijer, J.

2009-01-01

Foods and food components can have positive and/or negative effects on our health, resulting in benefits and risks. At present these are evaluated in largely separated trajectories. In view of assessment, management, and communication, we here propose and argue for an integrated evaluation of risk
Comparative risk analysis for the Rocky Flats Plant integrated project planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, M.E.; Shain, D.I.

1994-01-01

The Rocky Flats Plant is developing, with active stakeholder participation, a comprehensive planning strategy that will support transition of the Rocky Flats Plant from a nuclear weapons production facility to site cleanup and final disposition. Consideration of the interrelated nature of sitewide problems, such as material movement and disposition, facility and land use endstates, costs, relative risks to workers and the public, and waste disposition are all needed. Comparative Risk Analysis employs both incremental risk and cumulative risk evaluations to compare risks from postulated options or endstates and is an analytical tool for the Rocky Flats Plant Integrated Project Planning which can assist a decision-maker in evaluating relative risks among proposed remediation activity. However, risks from all of the remediation activities, decontamination and decommissioning activities, and normal ongoing operations are imposed upon the Rocky Flats workers, the surrounding public, and the environment. Comparative Risk Analysis will provide risk information, both human health and ecological, to aid in reducing unnecessary resource and monetary expenditures by focusing these resources on the largest risks first. Comparative Risk Analysis has been developed to aggregate various incremental risk estimates to develop a site cumulative risk estimate. The Comparative Risk Analysis methodology Group, consisting of community stakeholders, was established. Early stakeholder involvement in the risk analysis methodology development provides an opportunity for stakeholders to influence the risk information delivered to a decision-maker. This paper discusses development of the Comparative Risk Analysis methodology, stakeholder participation and lessons learned from these challenges
Risk of progression of early cervical lesions is associated with integration and persistence of HPV-16 and expression of E6, Ki-67, and telomerase

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arianna Vega-Peña

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL are the earliest lesions of the uterine cervix, the persistence and integration of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV as type 16, which promotes the development of more aggressive lesions. Aim: To select more aggressive lesions with tendency to progress to invasive cervical cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 75 cytological specimens in liquid base (Liqui-PREP were analyzed: 25 specimens were with no signs of SIL (NSIL and without HPV; 25 NSIL with HPV-16, and 25 with both LSIL and HPV-16. The expression of Ki-67, telomerase, and viral E6 was evaluated by immunocytochemistry; and the detection of viral DNA was done by polymerase chain reaction (PCR and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLPs for genotyping or sequencing of HPV-16. The physical state of HPV-16 was evaluated by in situ hybridization with amplification with tyramide. Results: Of the total group, 58.6% had LSIL associated with persistence and of these 59.3% was associated with integrated state of HPV as intense expression of E6, Ki-67 (P = 0.013, P = 0.055 has except for the expression of telomerase present a non-significant association (P<0.341. Conclusions: Overexpression of E6 and Ki-67 is associated with the integration of HPV-16, favoring viral persistence, and increasing the risk of progression in women with NSIL and LSIL.
SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoica Luburić

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on two very important and current approaches to management: Total Quality Management (TQM and Operational Risk Management (ORM. As a paradigm of business success, TQM provides the key assumptions for survival, development and success of an organisation, regardless of any limitations whatsoever. ORM, on the other hand, is predetermined to be an irreplaceable managerial tool that enables organisations to survive in any environment. In times of accelerated political, economic and technological changes, frequent natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other external events, a successful risk management has been gaining importance and becomes one of the key competitive advantages of an organisation. The ultimate objective is to make TQM and ORM, as two rather compatible and complementary approaches to risk management, harmonized, efficient and functional in order to get their synergistic effects in an organisation in full swing and practice. Various organisations, and thus central banks as conservative institutions, have an innovative opportunity to timely minimize their operational risk through preventive, comprehensive and synergistic operation of TQM and ORM and thus significantly contribute to improving their business performance.
Total Ore Processing Integration and Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leslie Gertsch

2006-05-15

This report outlines the technical progress achieved for project DE-FC26-03NT41785 (Total Ore Processing Integration and Management) during the period 01 January through 31 March of 2006. (1) Work in Progress: Minntac Mine--Graphical analysis of drill monitor data moved from two-dimensional horizontal patterns to vertical variations in measured and calculated parameters. The rock quality index and the two dimensionless ({pi}) indices developed by Kewen Yin of the University of Minnesota are used by Minntac Mine to design their blasts, but the drill monitor data from any given pattern is obviously not available for the design of that shot. Therefore, the blast results--which are difficult to quantify in a short time--must be back-analyzed for comparison with the drill monitor data to be useful for subsequent blast designs. {pi}{sub 1} indicates the performance of the drill, while {pi}{sub 2} is a measure of the rock resistance to drilling. As would be expected, since a drill tends to perform better in rock that offers little resistance, {pi}{sub 1} and {pi}{sub 2} are strongly inversely correlated; the relationship is a power function rather than simply linear. Low values of each Pi index tend to be quantized, indicating that these two parameters may be most useful above certain minimum magnitudes. (2) Work in Progress: Hibtac Mine--Statistical examination of a data set from Hibtac Mine (Table 1) shows that incorporating information on the size distribution of material feeding from the crusher to the autogenous mills improves the predictive capability of the model somewhat (43% vs. 44% correlation coefficient), but a more important component is production data from preceding days (26% vs. 44% correlation coefficient), determined using exponentially weighted moving average predictive variables. This lag effect likely reflects the long and varied residence times of the different size fragments in the grinding mills. The rock sizes are also correlated with the geologic
Application of Total Quality Management (TQM) Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

OpenAIRE

Entisar K. Al-Geelawee; Anfal Nadhel Mohammed

2016-01-01

Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be a...
Integrated source-risk model for radon: A definition study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laheij, G.M.H.; Aldenkamp, F.J.; Stoop, P.

1993-10-01

The purpose of a source-risk model is to support policy making on radon mitigation by comparing effects of various policy options and to enable optimization of counter measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain. There are several advantages developing and using a source-risk model: risk calculations are standardized; the effects of measures applied to different parts of the source-risk chain can be better compared because interactions are included; and sensitivity analyses can be used to determine the most important parameters within the total source-risk chain. After an inventory of processes and sources to be included in the source-risk chain, the models presently available in the Netherlands are investigated. The models were screened for completeness, validation and operational status. The investigation made clear that, by choosing for each part of the source-risk chain the most convenient model, a source-risk chain model for radon may be realized. However, the calculation of dose out of the radon concentrations and the status of the validation of most models should be improved. Calculations with the proposed source-risk model will give estimations with a large uncertainty at the moment. For further development of the source-risk model an interaction between the source-risk model and experimental research is recommended. Organisational forms of the source-risk model are discussed. A source-risk model in which only simple models are included is also recommended. The other models are operated and administrated by the model owners. The model owners execute their models for a combination of input parameters. The output of the models is stored in a database which will be used for calculations with the source-risk model. 5 figs., 15 tabs., 7 appendices, 14 refs
Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

2013-10-15

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by
Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

2013-01-01

Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ
Technical Report on Preliminary Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Coles, Garill A.; Coble, Jamie B.; Hirt, Evelyn H.

2013-09-17

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. AdvSMRs may provide a longer-term alternative to traditional light-water reactors (LWRs) and SMRs based on integral pressurized water reactor concepts currently being considered. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment. AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors. Some of this loss can be recovered through reduced capital costs through smaller size, fewer components, modular fabrication processes, and the opportunity for modular construction. However, the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments that are a step towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results from an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors by integrating real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors.
[Case-control study on effect of rivaroxaban on the risk of hidden bleeding after total hip arthroplasty].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jun; Jing, Jue-Hua; Shi, Zhan-Jun; Zhou, Yun

2014-01-01

To investigate the risk of hidden blood loss about applying rivaroxaban after total hip arthroplasty. From October 2009 to May 2012,88 patients with femoral head necrosis were treated with primary total hip arthroplasty. All the patients were divided into Rivaroxaban group(44 cases)and control group(44 cases). There were 25 males and 19 females in the Rivaroxaban group, with an average age of (58.48 +/- 15.19) years old; in the control group,24 patients were male and 20 patients were female, with an average age of (61.11 +/- 13.54) years old. The patients in the Rivaroxaban group took Rivaroxaban orally from the first day after operation with a dose of 10 mg each day, and treatment course was 14 days. The patients in the control group took placebo orally at the same time. Dominant blood loss and transfusion were recorded, blood routine examinations were taken before operation and at 3 days after operation. The total blood loss and hidden blood loss were calculated according to the formula. The mean total blood loss was (1509.56 +/- 325.23) ml and the hidden blood loss was(581.47 +/- 215.01) ml, accounting for (37.88 +/- 10.42)% in the Rivaroxaban group. The mean total blood loss was (1262.30 +/- 397.95) ml and the hidden blood loss was (395.59 +/- 97.33) ml, accounting for (30.62 +/- 0.20)% in the control group. The total blood loss, hidden blood loss and transfusion in the Rivaroxaban group was significantly more than those in control group,b ut there was no significant difference on dominant blood loss between two groups. Rivaroxaban increased the overall bleeding risk of total hip arthroplasty, especially hidden bleeding risk, which should be careful used.
An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and risk factors for postoperative delirium in total joint arthroplasty patients: A prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wenliang; Ke, Xiurong; Wang, Xiaoqing; Sun, Xiaoliang; Wang, Juncheng; Yang, Guojing; Xia, Haijie; Zhang, Lei

2017-05-01

The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the incidence and clinical features of delirium after total joint arthroplasty, and to establish the potential risk factors for postoperative delirium. A total of 212 consecutive patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty, who met the inclusion and exclusive criteria were enrolled. The general characteristics, preoperative and postoperative hematological variables were documented respectively. According to the presence of delirium, all patients were divided into the delirium group and non-delirium group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify the possible predictors for postoperative delirium. At a minimum of 6months of follow-up, 35 patients were observed with postoperative delirium at an estimated total incidence of 16.5%. The incidence of delirium was statistically higher in hip arthroplasty (22.8%) than that in knee arthroplasty (7.1%). The multivariate regression analysis identified older age (OR=1.590, P=0.023), a history of stroke (OR=190.23, P=0.036), preoperative PaO 2 (OR=1.277, P=0.018) and equivalent fentanyl dose (OR=1.010, P=0.012) as the predictive factors for postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty. The incidence of postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty is higher than expected. Based on our findings, we suggest that the surgeons should focus on those patients who have these risk factors and ensure the appropriate management to avoid postoperative delirium. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
IT risk management disclosure in the integrated reports of the top 40 listed companies on the JSE limited

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Marx

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Information Technology (IT has become an integral part of virtually all modern day organisations. The advent of IT has given rise to numerous benefits which increase productivity and efficiency in the workplace, however, IT also brings with it significant risks that can have an impact on an organisation’s ability to function as a going concern. Organisations, especially those listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE, are required to submit an Integrated Report (IR on an annual basis in which they indicate how they used the resources at their disposal to create value for the organisation and its stakeholders during the year under review. The IR is also a forward-looking document, as opposed to the traditional, backward-looking reports. The purpose of this paper is to determine to what extent IT Risk and IT Risk Management are disclosed in the IR’s of the Top 40 Listed Companies on the JSE. It further aims to determine whether IT Risks are included as material risk in the entity’s risk statements of the Integrated Report, and whether proper explanations are provided on how the materiality of the risks are determined and dealt with. This is done by means of an empirical study consisting of a content analysis of the IRs of the Top 40 listed companies on the JSE. The results of the analysis indicates that more than half of the companies included IT risk as part of their material risks and outlined appropriate and detailed processes that were followed by the company to manage those IT risks. The findings of the study accordingly support the need for communicating significant risks and the management thereof to stakeholders as part of the integrated nature of governance of entities. However, it is disconcerting that some companies are not doing this, and accordingly are not realising the need for communicating significant matters to their stakeholders and the value that informative and credible reporting will bring to an entity�
Risk factors associated with mental health issues in adolescents: a integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnes Caroline Souza Pinto

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Objective: To identify the risk factors associated with mental health issues in adolescents. Method: An integrative review was conducted in four databases with publications from 2007 to 2013. The terms Adolescent and Mental Health were used to search adequate articles as DeCs/MeSH bases. Results: Publications were found in different journals in different fields of knowledge and the quantitative research was the most frequent. The mental health issues were categorized as individual factors; drug related factors, school factors, family factors, social factors and STDs/Aids related factors. The most addressed category was individual factors, with 23 publications. Conclusion: The integrative review allowed to point important questions to be addressed in preventive actions by the health professional, including the nurse, to create a space that works with risk conditioning factors in adolescents for mental health aggravation.
Highlight report: Launch of a large integrated European in vitro toxicology project: EU-ToxRisk.

Science.gov (United States)

Daneshian, Mardas; Kamp, Hennicke; Hengstler, Jan; Leist, Marcel; van de Water, Bob

2016-05-01

The integrated European project, EU-ToxRisk, proudly sees itself as "flagship" exploring new alternative-to-animal approaches to chemical safety evaluation. It promotes mechanism-based toxicity testing and risk assessment according to the principles laid down for toxicology for the twenty-first century. The project was officially launched in January 2016 with a kickoff meeting in Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands. Over 100 scientists representing academia and industry as well as regulatory authorities attended the inaugural meeting. The project will integrate advances in in vitro and in silico toxicology, read-across methods, and adverse outcome pathways. EU-ToxRisk will continue to make use of the case study strategy deployed in SEURAT-1, a FP7 initiative ended in December 2015. Even though the development of new non-animal methods is one target of EU-ToxRisk, the project puts special emphasis on their acceptance and implementation in regulatory contexts. This €30 million Horizon 2020 project involves 38 European partners and one from the USA. EU-ToxRisk aims at the "development of a new way of risk assessment."
A totally heat-integrated distillation column (THIDiC) - the effect of feed pre-heating by distillate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang Kejin [School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China)], E-mail: huangkj@mail.buct.edu.cn; Shan Lan; Zhu Qunxiong [School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029 (China); Qian Jixin [School of Information Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Zhejiang 300027 (China)

2008-06-15

An ideal heat-integrated distillation column (ideal HIDiC) is characterized by external zero-reflux and zero-reboil ratio operation. Since the distillate is a high-pressure vapor phase flow, it can be used to pre-heat the feed to be separated, thereby giving rise to a totally heat-integrated distillation column (THIDiC). Although the THIDiC is more thermodynamically efficient than the ideal HIDiC, it is found that the heat integration between the distillate and feed turns it into an open-loop integrating process and poses additional difficulties to process operation. Therefore, a careful decision must be made on the selection between the ideal HIDiC and the THIDiC during process development. In this paper, separation of a binary equimolar mixture of benzene and toluene is selected as an illustrative example. Both process design and operability analysis are conducted, with special emphasis focused on the characteristics of feed pre-heating with distillate. The results obtained show deep insight into the design and operation of the THIDiC.
A totally heat-integrated distillation column (THIDiC) - the effect of feed pre-heating by distillate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Kejin; Shan Lan; Zhu Qunxiong; Qian Jixin

2008-01-01

An ideal heat-integrated distillation column (ideal HIDiC) is characterized by external zero-reflux and zero-reboil ratio operation. Since the distillate is a high-pressure vapor phase flow, it can be used to pre-heat the feed to be separated, thereby giving rise to a totally heat-integrated distillation column (THIDiC). Although the THIDiC is more thermodynamically efficient than the ideal HIDiC, it is found that the heat integration between the distillate and feed turns it into an open-loop integrating process and poses additional difficulties to process operation. Therefore, a careful decision must be made on the selection between the ideal HIDiC and the THIDiC during process development. In this paper, separation of a binary equimolar mixture of benzene and toluene is selected as an illustrative example. Both process design and operability analysis are conducted, with special emphasis focused on the characteristics of feed pre-heating with distillate. The results obtained show deep insight into the design and operation of the THIDiC
Risk factors for accelerated polyethylene wear and osteolysis in ABG I total hip arthroplasty

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gallo, J.; Havránek, Vítězslav; Zapletová, J.

2013-01-01

Roč. 34, č. 1 (2013), 19-26 ISSN 0341-2695 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) OC 168 Program:OC Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100522 Keywords : risk * factors * accelerated * polyethylene * wear * osteolysis * ABG * total * arthroplasty Subject RIV: FI - Traumatology, Orthopedics Impact factor: 2.019, year: 2013
Incidence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Implications of Pneumonia Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Bohl, Daniel D; Saltzman, Bryan M; Sershon, Robert A; Darrith, Brian; Okroj, Kamil T; Della Valle, Craig J

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the incidence, risk factors, and clinical implications of pneumonia following total joint arthroplasty (TJA). The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to conduct a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing TJA. Independent risk factors for the development of pneumonia within 30 days of TJA were identified using multivariate regression. Mortality and readmission rates were compared between patients who did and did not develop pneumonia. Multivariate regression was used to adjust for all demographic, comorbidity, and procedural characteristics. In total, 171,200 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 66,493 (38.8%) underwent THA and 104,707 (61.2%) underwent TKA. Of the 171,200 patients, 590 developed pneumonia, yielding a rate of 0.34% (95% confidence interval = 0.32%-0.37%). Independent risk factors for pneumonia were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, greater age (most notably ≥80 years), dyspnea on exertion, dependent functional status, lower body mass index, hypertension, current smoker status, and male sex. The subset of patients who developed pneumonia following discharge had a higher readmission rate (82.1% vs 3.4%, adjusted relative risk [RR] = 16.6, P pneumonia. Pneumonia is a serious complication following TJA that occurs in approximately 1 in 300 patients. Approximately 4 in 5 patients who develop pneumonia are subsequently readmitted, and approximately 1 in 25 die. Given the serious implications of this complication, evidence-based pneumonia prevention programs including oral hygiene with chlorhexidine, sitting upright for meals, elevation of the head of the bed to at least 30°, aggressive incentive spirometry, and early ambulation should be considered for patients at greatest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Fatores de Risco para Infecção Pós-histerectomia Total Abdominal Risk Factors for Infection after Total Abdominal Hysterectomy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melania Maria Ramos de Amorim

2000-08-01

with the occurrence of surgical site infection in patients submitted to total abdominal hysterectomy at the Instituto Materno ¾ Infantil de Pernambuco (iMIP. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling patients submitted to total abdominal hysterectomy at IMIP who returned to postsurgical consultation for infection control, between January, 1995 and December, 1998 (n = 414. The frequency of surgical site infection (defined according to the CDC criteria, 1998 was 10% (42 cases. Prevalence risk (PR of infection (dependent variable and its 95% confidence interval (CI were calculated for independent variables: age, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, malignant pathology, type of incision, duration of surgery and antibiotic prophylaxis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine adjusted risk of infection. Results: a significantly increased risk of infection was found for the following variables: age >60 years (PR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.15-4.94, obesity (PR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.83-5.59, duration of surgery >2 hours (PR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.32-4.21 and diabetes (PR = 6.0, 95% CI = 3.41-10.57. On the other hand, risk of infection was significantly reduced when antibiotic prophylaxis was administered (PR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.21-0.68. Type of incision, malignant disease and hypertension were not associated with infection. Conclusions: the factors associated with increased risk of surgical site infection after total abdominal hysterectomy at IMIP were: age >60 years, obesity, diabetes and surgical duration >2 hours. Antibiotic prophylaxis showed a protective effect with reduction of risk of infection.
Total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea intake and gastric cancer risk : Results from the EPIC cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sanikini, Harinakshi; Dik, Vincent K.; Siersema, Peter D.; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Uiterwaal, Cuno S. P. M.; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Alez, Carlos A. Gonz; Zamora-Ros, Raul; Overvad, Kim; Nneland, Anne Tj; Roswall, Nina; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Racine, Antoine; Kuehn, Tilman; Katzke, Verena; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Grioni, Sara; Vineis, Paolo; Tumino, Rosario; Panico, Salvatore; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Braaten, Tonje; Huerta, Jose Maria; Sanchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Barricarte, Aurelio; Sonestedt, Emily; Wallstrom, Peter; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Johansson, Ingegerd; Bradbury, Kathryn E.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Huybrechts, Inge; Freisling, Heinz; Cross, Amanda J.; Riboli, Elio; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B(as)

2015-01-01

Prospective studies examining the association between coffee and tea consumption and gastric cancer risk have shown inconsistent results. We investigated the association between coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea consumption and the risk of gastric cancer by anatomical site and
Plasma Total Antioxidant Capacity and Cardiometabolic Risk in Non-Obese and Clinically Healthy Young Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Jamille Oliveira; Vásquez, Cecília M Passos; Santana, Gleiciane de Jesus; Silva, Natanael de Jesus; Braz, Juciene de Matos; Jesus, Amélia M Ribeiro de; Silva, Danielle Góes da; Cunha, Luana Celina Seraphim; Barbosa, Kiriaque Barra Ferreira

2017-07-10

The oxidative biomarkers play an important role in the genesis of cardiometabolic risk-related processes. To investigate the total antioxidant capacity of plasma and its association with cardiometabolic risk in non-obese and clinically healthy young adults. University students of the state of Sergipe, Brazil, aged between 18 and 25 years, were recruited for this study from May of 2013 and October of 2014. Anthropometric, clinical and biochemical parameters were measured and analyzed using protocols which were previously standardized and described in the literature. The measurement of plasma total antioxidant capacity was based on the ability that all the antioxidants present in the sample (plasma) have to inhibit the oxidation of the oxidizable substrate ABTS (2,2`- Azino-di-[3-ethylbenzthiazoline sulphonate]) to ABTS•+ by metmyoglobin. Approximately 25% of the sample presented more than one component of cardiometabolic risk. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most prevalent component. Compared to absence of components, the subjects with at least one component presented greater body weight and waist circumference, higher levels of diastolic blood pressure and fasting glucose, greater total cholesterol/HDL-c ratio, and lower levels of HDL-c (p literatura. A medida da capacidade antioxidante total do plasma baseou-se na capacidade de todos os antioxidantes presentes na amostra (plasma) em inibir a oxidação do substrato oxidável ABTS (2,2-Azino-bis-(3-etilbenzotiazolina-6-sulfonato) a ABTS•+ pela metamioglobina. Aproximadamente 25% da amostra apresentaram mais de um componente do risco cardiometabólico. Valores baixos de HDL foram o componente mais prevalente. Em comparação à ausência de componentes, os indivíduos com pelo menos um componente apresentou valores mais altos de peso corporal, circunferência da cintura, pressão sanguínea diastólica, glicemia de jejum e razão colesterol total/HDL-c, e valores mais baixos de HDL-c (p < 0,05). A glicemia de jejum
Integrated spatial assessment of wind erosion risk in Hungary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Pásztor

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Wind erosion susceptibility of Hungarian soils was mapped on the national level integrating three factors of the complex phenomenon of deflation (physical soil features, wind characteristics, and land use and land cover. Results of wind tunnel experiments on erodibility of representative soil samples were used for the parametrization of a countrywide map of soil texture compiled for the upper 5 cm layer of soil, which resulted in a map representing threshold wind velocity exceedance. Average wind velocity was spatially estimated with 0.5′ resolution using the Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenised Data Basis (MISH method elaborated for the spatial interpolation of surface meteorological elements. The probability of threshold wind velocity exceedance was determined based on values predicted by the soil texture map at the grid locations. Ratio values were further interpolated to a finer 1 ha resolution using sand and silt content of the uppermost (0–5 cm layer of soil as spatial co-variables. Land cover was also taken into account, excluding areas that are not relevant to wind erosion (forests, water bodies, settlements, etc., to spatially assess the risk of wind erosion. According to the resulting map of wind erosion susceptibility, about 10 % of the total area of Hungary can be identified as susceptible to wind erosion. The map gives more detailed insight into the spatial distribution of wind-affected areas in Hungary compared to previous studies.
Rate and Risk Factors for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Among 36,494 Primary Total Hip Arthroplasties.

Science.gov (United States)

Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios K; Soranoglou, Vasileios G; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Sculco, Thomas P; Poultsides, Lazaros A

2018-04-01

As periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) can have tremendous health and socioeconomic implications, recognizing patients at risk before surgery is of great importance. Therefore, we sought to determine the rate of and risk factors for deep PJI in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Clinical characteristics of patients treated with primary THA between January 1999 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. These included patient demographics, comorbidities (including the Charlson/Deyo comorbidity index), length of stay, primary diagnosis, total/allogeneic transfusion rate, and in-hospital complications, which were grouped into local and systemic (minor and major). We determined the overall deep PJI rate, as well as the rates for early-onset (occurring within 2 years after index surgery) and late-onset PJI (occurring more than 2 years after surgery). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to identify risk factors for developing deep PJI. Significance level was set at 0.05. A deep PJI developed in 154 of 36,494 primary THAs (0.4%) during the study period. Early onset PJI was found in 122 patients (0.3%), whereas late PJI occurred in 32 patients (0.1%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for deep PJI after primary THA. The rate of deep PJIs of the hip is relatively low, with the majority occurring within 2 years after THA. If the optimization of modifiable risk factors before THA can reduce the rate of this complication remains unknown, but should be attempted as part of good practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
An Updated Methodology for Enhancing Risk Monitors with Integrated Equipment Condition Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, Evelyn H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Coles, Garill A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bonebrake, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ivans, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wootan, David W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mitchell, Mark R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-07-18

Small modular reactors (SMRs) generally include reactors with electric output of ~350 MWe or less (this cutoff varies somewhat but is substantially less than full-size plant output of 700 MWe or more). Advanced SMRs (AdvSMRs) refer to a specific class of SMRs and are based on modularization of advanced reactor concepts. Enhancing affordability of AdvSMRs will be critical to ensuring wider deployment, as AdvSMRs suffer from loss of economies of scale inherent in small reactors when compared to large (~greater than 600 MWe output) reactors and the controllable day-to-day costs of AdvSMRs will be dominated by operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Technologies that help characterize real-time risk are important for controlling O&M costs. Risk monitors are used in current nuclear power plants to provide a point-in-time estimate of the system risk given the current plant configuration (e.g., equipment availability, operational regime, and environmental conditions). However, current risk monitors are unable to support the capability requirements listed above as they do not take into account plant-specific normal, abnormal, and deteriorating states of active components and systems. This report documents technology developments towards enhancing risk monitors that, if integrated with supervisory plant control systems, can provide the capability requirements listed and meet the goals of controlling O&M costs. The report describes research results on augmenting an initial methodology for enhanced risk monitors that integrate real-time information about equipment condition and POF into risk monitors. Methods to propagate uncertainty through the enhanced risk monitor are evaluated. Available data to quantify the level of uncertainty and the POF of key components are examined for their relevance, and a status update of this data evaluation is described. Finally, we describe potential targets for developing new risk metrics that may be useful for studying trade-offs for economic
An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

Science.gov (United States)

Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

2013-01-01

Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.
A time-motion study of cardiovascular disease risk factor screening integrated into HIV clinic visits in Swaziland.

Science.gov (United States)

Palma, Anton M; Rabkin, Miriam; Simelane, Samkelo; Gachuhi, Averie B; McNairy, Margaret L; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Bongomin, Pido; Okello, Velephi N; Bitchong, Raymond A; El-Sadr, Wafaa M

2018-03-01

Screening of modifiable cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is recommended but not routinely provided for HIV-infected patients, especially in low-resource settings. Potential concerns include limited staff time and low patient acceptability, but little empirical data exists. As part of a pilot study of screening in a large urban HIV clinic in Swaziland, we conducted a time-motion study to assess the impact of screening on patient flow and HIV service delivery and exit interviews to assess patient acceptability. A convenience sample of patients ≥40 years of age attending routine HIV clinic visits was screened for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia and tobacco smoking. We observed HIV visits with and without screening and measured time spent on HIV and CVD risk factor screening activities. We compared screened and unscreened patients on total visit time and time spent receiving HIV services using Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. A separate convenience sample of screened patients participated in exit interviews to assess their satisfaction with screening. We observed 172 patient visits (122 with CVD risk factor screening and 50 without). Screening increased total visit time from a median (range) of 4 minutes (2 to 11) to 15 minutes (9 to 30) (p < 0.01). Time spent on HIV care was not affected: 4 (2 to 10) versus 4 (2 to 11) (p = 0.57). We recruited 126 patients for exit interviews, all of whom indicated that they would recommend screening to others. Provision of CVD risk factor screening more than tripled the length of routine HIV clinic visits but did not reduce the time spent on HIV services. Programme managers need to take longer visit duration into account in order to effectively integrate CVD risk factor screening and counselling into HIV programmes. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.
A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.
Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for the Development of Postoperative Hepatic Steatosis After Total Pancreatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hata, Tatsuo; Ishida, Masaharu; Motoi, Fuyuhiko; Sakata, Naoaki; Yoshimatsu, Gumpei; Naitoh, Takeshi; Katayose, Yu; Egawa, Shinichi; Unno, Michiaki

2016-03-01

The occurrence of hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is known to be associated with the remnant pancreatic function. However, other risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy remain unknown. The aims of this study were to identify other risk factors in addition to the remnant pancreatic function and elucidate the relationship between postoperative hepatic steatosis and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency in totally pancreatomized patients. Forty-three patients who underwent total pancreatectomy were analyzed. Hepatic steatosis was defined as the attenuation of unenhanced computed tomography values. Clinical findings and laboratory data were compared between patients with and without hepatic steatosis. Sixteen (37.2%) patients developed hepatic steatosis after total pancreatectomy, with marked declines in the Controlling Nutritional Status score and body mass index. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the attenuation of computed tomography values was correlated with female sex (P = 0.002), early postoperative serum albumin levels (P = 0.003), and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy with high-dose pancrelipase (P = 0.032). Postoperative hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is associated with sex, malnutrition, and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. High-dose pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy may have preventive effects on hepatic steatosis occurring after pancreatectomy.
Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, K.W.

1993-01-01

The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure
Depression and suicide risk among nursing professionals: an integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darlan dos Santos Damásio Silva

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Discussing the factors associated with major depression and suicide risk among nursing professionals. METHOD An integrative review in PubMed/MEDLINE, LILACS, SciELO and BDENF databases, between 2003 and 2015. RESULTS 20 published articles were selected, mostly from between 2012 and 2014, with significant production in Brazil. Nursing professionals are vulnerable to depression when young, married, performing night work and having several jobs, and when they have a high level of education, low family income, work overload, high stress, insufficient autonomy and a sense of professional insecurity and conflict in the family and workrelationship. Suicide risk was correlated with the presence of symptoms of depression, high levels of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization and low personal accomplishment; characteristics of Burnout Syndrome. CONCLUSION Suicide risk among nursing professionals is associated with symptoms of depression and correlated with Burnout Syndrome, which can affect work performance.

Progressive risk assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls through a Total Diet Study in the Korean population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Eun-su; Nguyen, Khanh-Hoang; Kim, Jongchul; Kim, Cho-il; Chang, Yoon-Seok

2015-01-01

Human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from foods was investigated through a Total Diet Study (TDS) for the first time in Korea. A representative food list was developed from food intake data. Non-selected foods were also included in the TDS through the mapping process to anticipate practical risk assessment. For better representativeness, data (2008–2011) from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were combined with the TDS data set. And also, we estimated the dietary exposure to PCBs from various food items using a ‘best-fit’ mapping process and assessed the differences in PCB exposures by sex and age. In this study, we examined total PCBs (62 congeners) including dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and indicator PCBs, which are congeners that are mainly detected in various environmental matrices. The average dietary exposure (3.94 ng/kg body weight/day) that was estimated through food intake was 19.7% of the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation. - Highlights: • A total of 282 samples, composed of the most consumed foodstuffs in Korea, were analysed and shown in detail. • The contamination status of total PCBs in food was assessed, through their various condition on cooking methods. • The dietary intakes of PCBs in various food groups were estimated in different region, gender and age groups. • The improved and systematic food selection process was applied such as ‘mapping process’. - This study is to ensure food safety through total analysis of PCBs with the improved risk assessment method.
Integrated systems approach identifies risk regulatory pathways and key regulators in coronary artery disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Liu, Dianming; Wang, Lihong; Wang, Shuyuan; Yu, Xuexin; Dai, Enyu; Liu, Xinyi; Luo, Shanshun; Jiang, Wei

2015-12-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most common type of heart disease. However, the molecular mechanisms of CAD remain elusive. Regulatory pathways are known to play crucial roles in many pathogenic processes. Thus, inferring risk regulatory pathways is an important step toward elucidating the mechanisms underlying CAD. With advances in high-throughput data, we developed an integrated systems approach to identify CAD risk regulatory pathways and key regulators. Firstly, a CAD-related core subnetwork was identified from a curated transcription factor (TF) and microRNA (miRNA) regulatory network based on a random walk algorithm. Secondly, candidate risk regulatory pathways were extracted from the subnetwork by applying a breadth-first search (BFS) algorithm. Then, risk regulatory pathways were prioritized based on multiple CAD-associated data sources. Finally, we also proposed a new measure to prioritize upstream regulators. We inferred that phosphatase and tensin homolog (PTEN) may be a key regulator in the dysregulation of risk regulatory pathways. This study takes a closer step than the identification of disease subnetworks or modules. From the risk regulatory pathways, we could understand the flow of regulatory information in the initiation and progression of the disease. Our approach helps to uncover its potential etiology. We developed an integrated systems approach to identify risk regulatory pathways. We proposed a new measure to prioritize the key regulators in CAD. PTEN may be a key regulator in dysregulation of the risk regulatory pathways.
Stakeholder consultations and opportunities for integrating socio-behavioural factors into the pesticide risk analysis process.

Science.gov (United States)

Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alex; Sacchettini, Gabriele; Capri, Ettore

2016-02-01

The pesticide risk analysis process is well regulated in the EU, especially in relation to placing on the market authorisation procedures, but in order to avoid risks for human health and environment in the use phase, information on how these substances are employed and on socio-behavioural factors that can influence the exposure have to be taken into account. To better explore reasons about the gap between risk assessment and risk management, within the EU FP7 Health and Environmental Risks: Organisation, Integration and Cross-fertilisation of Scientific Knowledge (HEROIC) project, a stepwise stakeholder's consultation process was developed using a mixed approach in two different phases (survey and roundtable). We elicited stakeholder views regarding factors that could limit the pesticide risk assessment phase linked on how the knowledge is produced and the way the data are used in risk management and in risk communication, also taking into account qualitative factors such as responsibility, trust and behaviours, which could have impact on risk assessment policies. Activities deployed indicate that some changes and interaction are needed to better define the problems at the formulation stage, and the type of information risk assessor has to provide, to better inform risk manager in addressing different societal needs, to strengthen the credibility of the process of risk assessment and improve the effectiveness of policies. Integrations between disciplines may initially increase the complexity but in turn will provide a better and more useful estimation of the risk, reinforce transparency and drive a more efficient use of risk management resources.
Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

2009-07-01

Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)
Preliminary risk assessment of the Integral Inherently-Safe Light Water Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarroll, Kellen R.; Lee, John C.; Manera, Annalisa; Memmott, Matthew J.; Ferroni, Paolo

2017-01-01

The Integral, Inherently Safe Light Water Reactor (I 2 S-LWR) concept seeks to significantly increase nuclear power plant safety. The project implements a safety-by-design philosophy, eliminating several initiating events and providing novel, passive safety systems at the conceptual phase. Pursuit of unparalleled safety employs an integrated development process linking design with deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses. Unique aspects of the I 2 S-LWR concept and design process present challenges to the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), particularly regarding overall flexibility, auditability and resolution of results. Useful approaches to initiating events and conditional failures are presented. To exemplify the risk-informed design process using PRA, a trade-off study of two safety system configurations is presented. Although further optimization is required, preliminary results indicate that the I 2 S-LWR can achieve a core damage frequency (CDF) from internal events less than 1.01 × 10 −8 /ry, including reactor vessel ruptures. Containment bypass frequency due to primary heat exchanger rupture is found to be comparable to non-vessel rupture CDF.
Total Probability of Collision as a Metric for Finite Conjunction Assessment and Collision Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.; Plakalovic, Dragan

2015-01-01

On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.
Early amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring neonates at high risk for brain injury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Fernando Todeschi Variane

2017-09-01

Conclusion: This study supports previous results and demonstrates the utility of amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring brain function and predicting early outcome in the studied groups of infants at high risk for brain injury.
Effects of total integrated solar radiation on radial fruit cracking in tomato [Lycopersicon esculentum] cultivation under rain shelter in cool uplands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, T.; Yanase, S.; Enya, T.; Shimazu, T.; Tanaka, I.

2007-01-01

This study investigated the cause of radial fruit cracking in tomato cultivation under rain shelter in the cool uplands in Gifu Prefecture. The effect of total integrated radiation using two types of training methods was determined over a three-year period. The percentage of refused radial fruit cracking associated with increased total integrated solar radiation from the young fruit stage to the mature green stage. Fruit cracking occurred in the training method which foliage and fruits received a large amount of light-interception. Also, as for fruits that undergo vigorous enlargement, the frequency of the radial fruit cracking increased
Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

Science.gov (United States)

McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

2017-12-06

For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integrative Therapies for Women with a High Risk Pregnancy During Antepartum Hospitalization.

Science.gov (United States)

Schlegel, Merry L; Whalen, Jeanne L; Williamsen, Pilar M

High-risk pregnancies that require lengthy hospitalization can cause anxiety and stress for pregnant women. Integrative medicine therapies may be beneficial for this population, but have not been widely studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate potential effects of acupuncture, guided imagery, Healing Touch, massage therapy, and reflexology on pain and anxiety of hospitalized pregnant women. A retrospective analysis of the effects of integrative medicine therapies was conducted; N = 554 individual therapies were provided to hospitalized women with high-risk pregnancies. They included acupuncture (n = 83), guided imagery (n = 71), Healing Touch (n = 119), massage therapy (n = 196), and reflexology (n = 85) over an 18-month period. Pain and anxiety were measured pre- and posttherapy using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means no pain or no anxiety and 10 means high pain or high anxiety. Analysis of mean scores of pre- and posttherapies for pain and anxiety found a decrease of pain and anxiety after all of the therapies, ranging from an 84.5% to 61.4% decrease for pain (p < .0001) and a 91% to 70. 9% decrease for anxiety (p < .0001). Overall, patients rated their anxiety higher than pain prior to each therapy. Hospitalized pregnant women responded favorably to the therapies. There were no adverse reactions reported. Results suggest potential benefits of integrative medicine therapies for this group of inpatients. Anxiety was more prevalent than pain among hospitalized pregnant women who received integrative medicine therapy.
Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

Science.gov (United States)

Denys Yemshanov; Daniel McKenney; John Pedlar; Frank Koch; David Cook

2009-01-01

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in north america and elsewhere. Assessments of risk and impacts remain difficult due to...
Unconstrained tripolar implants for primary total hip arthroplasty in patients at risk for dislocation.

Science.gov (United States)

Guyen, Olivier; Pibarot, Vincent; Vaz, Gualter; Chevillotte, Christophe; Carret, Jean-Paul; Bejui-Hugues, Jacques

2007-09-01

We performed a retrospective study on 167 primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) procedures in 163 patients at high risk for instability to assess the reliability of unconstrained tripolar implants (press-fit outer metal shell articulating a bipolar polyethylene component) in preventing dislocations. Eighty-four percent of the patients had at least 2 risk factors for dislocation. The mean follow-up length was 40.2 months. No dislocation was observed. Harris hip scores improved significantly. Six hips were revised, and no aseptic loosening of the cup was observed. The tripolar implant was extremely successful in achieving stability. However, because of the current lack of data documenting polyethylene wear at additional bearing, the routine use of tripolar implants in primary THA is discouraged and should be considered at the present time only for selected patients at high risk for dislocation and with limited activities.
Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.
Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.
Application of an integrated risk management system for improved maintenance in industrial plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jovanovic, A.; Balos, D.T.; Vinod, G.; Balos, D. [Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies, Stuttgart (Germany); Stanojevic, P. [NIS - Petroleum Industry of Serbia, Novi Sad (Serbia)

2007-06-15

The paper presents the application of the Integrated Risk Management System (iRiS) and its application to the areas of Risk Based Inspection (RBI), Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM), Root Cause Failure Analysis (RCFA) and Health, Safety and Environment (HSE). The web-based system integrates also the aspects of risk management related to data acquisition and management and interactive reporting and controlled use of single parts of the system by various individual users and/or user levels. A complementing part of the system is a tool for project management including the documentation and activity management, as well as scheduling and e-education and e-training. The complementing parts of the system are the CMMS part (maintenance management), the extension of HSE to HSSE (including the 'security' aspects and providing links to the disaster management system) and further interfacing towards general management system and process modeling and management systems. Experiences from the applications of system in Hungary (at over 60 units) and in Serbia, for several refineries and further units in upstream and downstream, are presented in the paper. (orig.)
Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS), Version 2.5: Reference manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1991-03-01

The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 2.5 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 2.5 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance. 7 refs., 348 figs
The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

2012-12-01

The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural
Pre-Operative Patient Education is Associated With Decreased Risk of Arthrofibrosis After Total Knee Arthroplasty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Livbjerg, Anna Emilie; Frøkjær, Sara; Simonsen, Ole

2013-01-01

The purpose was to investigate risk factors for postoperative stiffness and long-term outcome following manipulation under anaesthesia (MUA). In one of the five Danish regions, all patients in a 4-year period who received MUA following total knee arthroplasty (N=36) were included in two case-cont...
Integrate life-cycle assessment and risk analysis results, not methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin D; Wender, Ben A; Seager, Thomas P; Kennedy, Alan J; Keisler, Jeffrey M

2017-08-04

Two analytic perspectives on environmental assessment dominate environmental policy and decision-making: risk analysis (RA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). RA focuses on management of a toxicological hazard in a specific exposure scenario, while LCA seeks a holistic estimation of impacts of thousands of substances across multiple media, including non-toxicological and non-chemically deleterious effects. While recommendations to integrate the two approaches have remained a consistent feature of environmental scholarship for at least 15 years, the current perception is that progress is slow largely because of practical obstacles, such as a lack of data, rather than insurmountable theoretical difficulties. Nonetheless, the emergence of nanotechnology presents a serious challenge to both perspectives. Because the pace of nanomaterial innovation far outstrips acquisition of environmentally relevant data, it is now clear that a further integration of RA and LCA based on dataset completion will remain futile. In fact, the two approaches are suited for different purposes and answer different questions. A more pragmatic approach to providing better guidance to decision-makers is to apply the two methods in parallel, integrating only after obtaining separate results.
Risk assessment by integrating interpretive structural modeling and Bayesian network, case of offshore pipeline project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Wei-Shing; Yang, Chen-Feng; Chang, Jung-Chuan; Château, Pierre-Alexandre; Chang, Yang-Chi

2015-01-01

The sound development of marine resource usage relies on a strong maritime engineering industry. The perilous marine environment poses the highest risk to all maritime work. It is therefore imperative to reduce the risk associated with maritime work by using some analytical methods other than engineering techniques. This study addresses this issue by using an integrated interpretive structure modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) approach in a risk assessment context. Mitigating or managing maritime risk relies primarily on domain expert experience and knowledge. ISM can be used to incorporate expert knowledge in a systematic manner and helps to impose order and direction on complex relationships that exist among system elements. Working with experts, this research used ISM to clearly specify an engineering risk factor relationship represented by a cause–effect diagram, which forms the structure of the BN. The expert subjective judgments were further transformed into a prior and conditional probability set to be embedded in the BN. We used the BN to evaluate the risks of two offshore pipeline projects in Taiwan. The results indicated that the BN can provide explicit risk information to support better project management. - Highlights: • We adopt an integrated method for risk assessment of offshore pipeline projects. • We conduct semi-structural interview with the experts for risk factor identification. • Interpretive structural modeling helps to form the digraph of Bayesian network (BN) • We perform the risk analysis with the experts by building a BN. • Risk evaluations of two case studies using the BN show effectiveness of the methods

Dietary fats, cerebrovasculature integrity and Alzheimer's disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Takechi, R; Galloway, S; Pallebage-Gamarallage, M M S; Lam, V; Mamo, J C L

2010-04-01

An emerging body of evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that dietary fats influence Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk, but less clear is the mechanisms by which this occurs. Alzheimer's is an inflammatory disorder, many consider in response to fibrillar formation and extracellular deposition of amyloid-beta (Abeta). Alternatively, amyloidosis could notionally be a secondary phenomenon to inflammation, because some studies suggest that cerebrovascular disturbances precede amyloid plaque formation. Hence, dietary fats may influence AD risk by either modulating Abeta metabolism, or via Abeta independent pathways. This review explores these two possibilities taking into consideration; (i) the substantial affinity of Abeta for lipids and its ordinary metabolism as an apolipoprotein; (ii) evidence that Abeta has potent vasoactive properties and (iii) studies which show that dietary fats modulate Abeta biogenesis and secretion. We discuss accumulating evidence that dietary fats significantly influence cerebrovascular integrity and as a consequence altered Abeta kinetics across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Specifically, chronic ingestion of saturated fats or cholesterol appears to results in BBB dysfunction and exaggerated delivery from blood-to-brain of peripheral Abeta associated with lipoproteins of intestinal and hepatic origin. Interestingly, the pattern of saturated fat/cholesterol induced cerebrovascular disturbances in otherwise normal wild-type animal strains is analogous to established models of AD genetically modified to overproduce Abeta, consistent with a causal association. Saturated fats and cholesterol may exacerbate Abeta induced cerebrovascular disturbances by enhancing exposure of vessels of circulating Abeta. However, presently there is no evidence to support this contention. Rather, SFA and cholesterol appear to more broadly compromise BBB integrity with the consequence of plasma protein leakage into brain, including lipoprotein associated Abeta
Integrating physical and financial approaches to manage environmental financial risk

Science.gov (United States)

Characklis, Gregory; Meyer, Eliot; Foster, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Physical and/or engineered solutions have long been used to manage risks associated with adverse environmental events. Examples include reservoirs as a tool for mitigating drought-related supply risk, levees for managing flood risk and dredging of inland waterways to ensure navigability during low flow periods. These measures can reduce many types of risk (e.g., loss of life), but are often employed as a means of protecting against financial losses. When the focus is on managing environmental financial risk, physical solutions can be effective, but also costly. In many cases, non-physical tools can provide a less expensive means of managing financial risk, with these often taking the form of financial instruments such as hedging contracts, contingency funds or insurance. Some of these instruments, such as flood insurance, are widely available, but historically many environmental financial risks have been managed primarily (or solely) via physical solutions without much consideration of alternatives, thereby opening opportunities for innovation in developing financial solutions. Recent research has demonstrated that financial instruments can play a significant role in managing drought-related financial risk in sectors as diverse as water utilities, energy generation and inland navigation. Nonetheless, this work has largely considered the use of these instruments within systems in which physical solutions are already in place (but failing to achieve desired performance). The next step in the evolution of managing environmental financial risk involves developing methods for designing risk management strategies that do not assume an established physical system. Here the goal is to identify the relative role that physical solutions and financial instruments should play as they are integrated into a comprehensive risk management strategy. This is not a straightforward challenge as one approach reduces the risk of financial losses and the other redistributes those losses
Increased risk of revision for infection in rheumatoid arthritis patients with total hip replacements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schrama, Johannes Cornelis; Fenstad, Anne M; Dale, Håvard

2015-01-01

Background and purpose-Medical treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has changed dramatically over the last 15 years, including immune modulation. We investigated the risk of revision for infection after primary total hip replacement (THR) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over a 16-year...... period, and compared it with that in THR patients with osteoarthritis (OA).Patients and methods-We identified 13,384 THRs in RA patients and 377,287 THRs in OA patients from 1995 through 2010 in a dataset from the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA). Kaplan-Meier survival curves......, with revision for infection as the endpoint, were constructed. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate the relative risk (RR) of revision for infection adjusted for age, sex, fixation technique, and year of primary surgery.Results-RA patients had a 1.3 times (95% CI 1.0-1.6) higher risk of revision...
Proposal of a risk-factor-based analytical approach for integrating occupational health and safety into project risk evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Badri, Adel; Nadeau, Sylvie; Gbodossou, André

2012-09-01

Excluding occupational health and safety (OHS) from project management is no longer acceptable. Numerous industrial accidents have exposed the ineffectiveness of conventional risk evaluation methods as well as negligence of risk factors having major impact on the health and safety of workers and nearby residents. Lack of reliable and complete evaluations from the beginning of a project generates bad decisions that could end up threatening the very existence of an organization. This article supports a systematic approach to the evaluation of OHS risks and proposes a new procedure based on the number of risk factors identified and their relative significance. A new concept called risk factor concentration along with weighting of risk factor categories as contributors to undesirable events are used in the analytical hierarchy process multi-criteria comparison model with Expert Choice(©) software. A case study is used to illustrate the various steps of the risk evaluation approach and the quick and simple integration of OHS at an early stage of a project. The approach allows continual reassessment of criteria over the course of the project or when new data are acquired. It was thus possible to differentiate the OHS risks from the risk of drop in quality in the case of the factory expansion project. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pigging the unpiggable: a total integrated maintenance approach of the Progreso Process Pipelines in Yucatan, Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez Graciano, Luis [PEMEX Refinacion, Mexico, MX (Mexico); Gonzalez, Oscar L. [NDT Systems and Services, Stutensee (Germany)

2009-07-01

Pemex Refinacion and NDT Systems and Services, executed a Total Integrated Maintenance Program of the Process Pipeline System in the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, in order to modernize, enhance and bring the pipeline system up to the best industry standards and ensure the integrity, reliability and safe operation of the system. This approach consisted in using multi-diameter ultrasonic inspection technology to determine the current status of the pipelines, repair every 'integrity diminishing' feature present on the system and establish a Certified Maintenance Program to ensure the future reliability and safety of the pipelines. Due to the complex nature of the pipeline construction, dated from 1984, several special modifications, integrations and solutions were necessary to improve the in line inspection survey as for all traditionally unpiggable systems. The Progreso Pipeline System consists in 3 major pipelines which transport diesel, jet fuel and gasoline respectively. The outside diameter of two pipelines varies along its length between 12 inches - 14 inches - 16 inches, making the inspection survey more difficult and particularly demanding an Inspection Tool solution. It is located on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, at the Mexican Caribbean, and its main purpose is to transport the product from the docked tanker ships to the Pemex Storage and Distribution Terminal. (author)
Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Keng-Yen; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-10-01

Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.
Risk assessment of Giardia from a full scale MBR sewage treatment plant caused by membrane integrity failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Zhimin; An, Wei; Xiao, Shumin; Yuan, Hongying; Zhang, Dongqing; Yang, Min

2015-04-01

Membrane bioreactors (MBR) are highly efficient at intercepting particles and microbes and have become an important technology for wastewater reclamation. However, many pathogens can accumulate in activated sludge due to the long residence time usually adopted in MBR, and thus may pose health risks when membrane integrity problems occur. This study presents data from a survey on the occurrence of water-borne Giardia pathogens in reclaimed water from a full-scale wastewater treatment plant with MBR experiencing membrane integrity failure, and assessed the associated risk for green space irrigation. Due to membrane integrity failure, the MBR effluent turbidity varied between 0.23 and 1.90 NTU over a period of eight months. Though this turbidity level still met reclaimed water quality standards (≤5 NTU), Giardia were detected at concentrations of 0.3 to 95 cysts/10 L, with a close correlation between effluent turbidity and Giardia concentration. All β-giardin gene sequences of Giardia in the WWTP influents were genotyped as Assemblages A and B, both of which are known to infect humans. An exponential dose-response model was applied to assess the risk of infection by Giardia. The risk in the MBR effluent with chlorination was 9.83×10(-3), higher than the acceptable annual risk of 1.0×10(-4). This study suggested that membrane integrity is very important for keeping a low pathogen level, and multiple barriers are needed to ensure the biological safety of MBR effluent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Genetic Schizophrenia Risk Variants Jointly Modulate Total Brain and White Matter Volume

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Afke F; Bakker, Steven C; van Haren, Neeltje E M

2013-01-01

with total brain volume (R(2)=.048, p=1.6×10(-4)) and white matter volume (R(2)=.051, p=8.6×10(-5)) equally in patients and control subjects. The number of (independent) SNPs that substantially influenced both disease risk and white matter (n=2020) was much smaller than the entire set of SNPs that modulated...... modulating schizophrenia and brain volume. METHODS: Odds ratios for genome-wide SNP data were calculated in the sample collected by the Psychiatric Genome-wide Association Study Consortium (8690 schizophrenia patients and 11,831 control subjects, excluding subjects from the present study). These were used...
Integrated Autopilot/Autothrottle Based on a Total Energy Control Concept: Design and Evaluation of Additional Autopilot Modes

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce, Kevin R.

1988-01-01

An integrated autopilot/autothrottle system was designed using a total energy control design philosophy. This design ensures that the system can differentiate between maneuvers requiring a change in thrust to accomplish a net energy change, and those maneuvers which only require elevator control to redistribute energy. The system design, the development of the system, and a summary of simulation results are defined.
Total flight hours, irritated and burning eye and risk of mild myopia in civilian pilots in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pritha Maya Savitri

2016-07-01

in civilian aviator and other populatian. This study aims to identify risk factors that affect the incidence of mild myopia in civilian pilot in Indonesia. Methods: This study using cross-sectional method with purposive sampling. Subjects answered the questionaire. Subject of this study are 21-45 years old male civilian aviators which performs scheduled medical check up at Civil Aviatian Medical Centre at May 5 – 21, 2014. The researcher using the medical record to get data about visual acuity. Cox regression analyses using Stata 9. Mild myopia in this study is defect distant visual acuity with corrected lens power -0.25 s/d -0.30. Results: The percentage of mild myopia in this study was 36%. Subjects with a total of 1000 hours of flying hours or more had a 28% higher risk of experiencing mild myopia [relative risk (RRa = 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.00 to 1.64; P = 0.047]. A history of parental myopia will increase the risk of mild myopia 5 times (RRa = 5.32, P = 0.000. Subjects with symptoms of difficulty focus has 48% higher risk of experiencing mild myopia (RRa = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.85, P = 0.001. Subjects with symptoms such as eye irritation, gritty, burning has a 54% lower risk of experiencing mild myopia (RRa = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.26-0.83, P = 0.009. Conclusions: Total flight time, parental myopia, visual fatigue; difficulty in focusing and foggy letters are influenced risk factors for mild myopia in civilian aviator in Indonesia. Key words: mild myopia, civilian aviator, total flight time, Indonesia.
An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

2017-03-23

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.
Stochastic risk-averse coordinated scheduling of grid integrated energy storage units in transmission constrained wind-thermal systems within a conditional value-at-risk framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hemmati, Reza; Saboori, Hedayat; Saboori, Saeid

2016-01-01

In recent decades, wind power resources have been integrated in the power systems increasingly. Besides confirmed benefits, utilization of large share of this volatile source in power generation portfolio has been faced system operators with new challenges in terms of uncertainty management. It is proved that energy storage systems are capable to handle projected uncertainty concerns. Risk-neutral methods have been proposed in the previous literature to schedule storage units considering wind resources uncertainty. Ignoring risk of the cost distributions with non-desirable properties may result in experiencing high costs in some unfavorable scenarios with high probability. In order to control the risk of the operator decisions, this paper proposes a new risk-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to make optimal decisions on energy storage and thermal units in a transmission constrained hybrid wind-thermal power system. Risk-aversion procedure is explicitly formulated using the conditional value-at-risk measure, because of possessing distinguished features compared to the other risk measures. The proposed model is a mixed integer linear programming considering transmission network, thermal unit dynamics, and storage devices constraints. The simulations results demonstrate that taking the risk of the problem into account will affect scheduling decisions considerably depend on the level of the risk-aversion. - Highlights: • Risk of the operation decisions is handled by using risk-averse programming. • Conditional value-at-risk is used as risk measure. • Optimal risk level is obtained based on the cost/benefit analysis. • The proposed model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programming. • The unit commitment is integrated with ESSs and wind power penetration.
Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: A comparative study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

2016-01-01

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones. - Highlights: • An extensive comparative study for renewable integration is presented. • A novel scenario generation method is proposed. • Wind and solar uncertainties are represented by a list of prediction intervals. • Unit commitment and dispatch costs are discussed considering reserve and risk.
An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nina Ching Y. Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.
Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — It is proposed to develop and demonstrate an integrated total-system risk and reliability analysis approach that is based on dynamic, probabilistic simulation. This...
Integration of risk analysis, land use planning, and cost analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajen, G.; Sanchez, G.

1994-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Pueblo of San Ildefonso (Pueblo), which is a sovereign Indian tribe, have often been involved in adversarial situations regarding the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The Pueblo shares a common boundary with the LANL. This paper describes an on-going project that could alter the DOE and the Pueblo's relationship to one of cooperation; and unite the DOE and the Pueblo in a Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization, and Integrated Risk Analysis and Land Use Planning effort
Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-01-01

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculations were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm
For which option is credit risk more representative on China banks' total factor productivity Efficiency change or technological progress?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Fadzlan Sufian

2012-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of credit risk on China banks' total factor productivity.Design/methodology/approach-The paper employs the Malmquist Productivity Index (MP1) which allows for the examination of five different indices:total factor productivity change (TFPCH);technological change (TECHCH);efficiency change (EFFCH);pure technical efficiency change (PEFFCH);and scale efficiency change (SECH) indices.Findings-The empirical findings indicate that the State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCB),Joint Stock Commercial Banks (JSCB),and City Commercial Banks (CCB) have exhibited lower TFPCH levels with the inclusion of risk factor.It was found that the JSCB and CCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to TECHCH,while the SOCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to EFFCH.The empirical findings suggest that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a higher JSCB EFFCH levels.On the other hand,the SOCB and CCB have exhibited a lower EFFCH levels due to SECH and PEFFCH,respectively.Research limitations/implications-The results clearly highlight the importance of credit risk and lending quality in determining the total factor productivity change of banks operating in the China banking sector.The author demonstrates that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a lower TFPCH level of all banks operating in the China banking sector.Thus,excluding the credit risk factor from the analysis on the China banking sector may potentially bias the result upwards.Practical impIications-In an environment of heavy government influence over the lending process,a large proportion of loans extended by Chinese banks over the years have gone bad.Policymakers should prevent the flow of new non-performing loans by separating bad clients from banks that are being restructured and recapitalized in the reform of the banking sector.Originality/value-By employing the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI),the present paper contributes to
Risk factors for unstable blood glucose level: integrative review of the risk factors related to the nursing diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andressa Magalhães Teixeira

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to identify evidence in the literature on the possible risk factors for the risk of unstable blood glucose diagnosis in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus, and to compare them with the risk factors described by NANDA International. Method: an integrative literature review guided by the question: what are the risk factors for unstable blood glucose level in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus? Primary studies were included whose outcomes were variations in glycemic levels, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish, in PubMed or CINAHL between 2010 and 2015. Results: altered levels of glycated hemoglobin, body mass index>31 kg/m2, previous history of hypoglycemia, cognitive deficit/dementia, autonomic cardiovascular neuropathy, comorbidities and weight loss corresponded to risk factors described in NANDA International. Other risk factors identified were: advanced age, black skin color, longer length of diabetes diagnosis, daytime sleepiness, macroalbuminuria, genetic polymorphisms, insulin therapy, use of oral antidiabetics, and use of metoclopramide, inadequate physical activity and low fasting glycemia. Conclusions: risk factors for the diagnosis, risk for unstable blood glucose level, for persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus were identified, and 42% of them corresponded to those of NANDA International. These findings may contribute to the practice of clinical nurses in preventing the deleterious effects of glycemic variation.
Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun; Lee, Sang hoon

2016-01-01

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed

Integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation using developed software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Gook Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang hoon [Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

As on-site spent fuel storage meets limitation of their capacity, spent fuel need to be transported to other place. In this research, risk of two ways of transportation method, maritime transportation and on-site transportation, and interim storage facility were analyzed. Easier and integrated risk assessment for spent fuel transportation will be possible by applying this software. Risk assessment for spent fuel transportation has not been researched and this work showed a case for analysis. By using this analysis method and developed software, regulators can get some insights for spent fuel transportation. For example, they can restrict specific region for preventing ocean accident and also they can arrange spend fuel in interim storage facility avoiding most risky region which have high risk from aircraft engine shaft. Finally, they can apply soft material on the floor for specific stage for on-site transportation. In this software, because we targeted Korea, we need to use Korean reference data. However, there were few Korean reference data. Especially, there was no food chain data for Korean ocean. In MARINRAD, they used steady state food chain model, but it is far from reality. Therefore, to get Korean realistic reference data, dynamic food chain model for Korean ocean need to be developed.
Total flight hours, irritated and burning eye and risk of mild myopia in civilian pilots in Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pritha Maya Savitri

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Latar belakang: Miopia merupakan kelainan refraksi yang sering terjadi di antara penerbang. Penelitianini bertujuan mengidentifikasi beberapa faktor risiko dominan terhadap miopia ringan pada penerbang sipildi Indonesia.Metode: Subyek adalah penerbang sipil pria berusia 21-45 tahun yang dipilih secara purposif di antara yangsedang melaksanakan pemeriksaan kesehatan berkala di Balai Kesehatan Penerbangan Jakarta. Data tajampenglihatan dan gula darah didapatkan dari rekam medik. Miopia ringan adalah subyek dengan penurunantajam penglihatan dengan koreksi lensa -0,25 sampai dengan -0,30. Analisis data dengan regresi Coxmenggunakan Stata 10.Hasil: Persentase miopia ringan dalam penelitian ini sebesar 36%. Faktor risiko dominan terhadap myopiaringan adalah jam terbang total, riwayat orang tua myopia, dan gejala iritasi dan gatal mata. Subyekdengan dibandingkan dengan yang kurang dari 1000 jam terbang 28% lebih tinggi berisiko myopia ringan[risiko relatif suaian (RRa = 1,28; 95% interval kepercayaan (CI =1,00-1,64; P = 0,047]. Subyek dengandibandingkan ttanpa riwayat orang tua myopia 32% lebih tinggi berisiko myopia ringan (RRa = 5,32; 95%CI = 3,75-7,55; P = 0,000. Sedangkan subyek dengan dibandingkan tanpa gejala iritasi mata 48% lebihbesar berisiko miopia ringan RRa = 1,48; 95% CI = 1,19-1,85; P = 0,001. Subyek dengan dibandingkantanpa gejala iritasi mata 46% lebih berisiko miopia ringan (RRa = 0,46; 95% CI = 0,26-0,83; P = 0,009.Kesimpulan: Jam terbang total lebih dari 1000 jam, riwayat orang tua miopia, iritasi mata merupakanfaktor risiko dominan terhadap miopia ringan pada penerbang sipil di Indonesia. (Health Science Journalof Indonesia 2016;7:49-53Kata kunci: miopia ringan, penerbang sipil, jam terbang, Indonesia Background: Spatial orientation is the main problem to pilots that determined by visual, vestibuler andpropioseptif. This study aims to identify several dominant risk factors related to mild myopia in civilianpilots in Indonesia
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

2015-01-01

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess
Looking beyond borders: integrating best practices in benefit-risk analysis into the field of food and nutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Tijhuis, M J; Pohjola, M V; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Poto, M; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, O; White, B C; Holm, F; Verhagen, H

2012-01-01

An integrated benefit-risk analysis aims to give guidance in decision situations where benefits do not clearly prevail over risks, and explicit weighing of benefits and risks is thus indicated. The BEPRARIBEAN project aims to advance benefit-risk analysis in the area of food and nutrition by learning from other fields. This paper constitutes the final stage of the project, in which commonalities and differences in benefit-risk analysis are identified between the Food and Nutrition field and other fields, namely Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics and Marketing-Finance, and Consumer Perception. From this, ways forward are characterized for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition. Integrated benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition may advance in the following ways: Increased engagement and communication between assessors, managers, and stakeholders; more pragmatic problem-oriented framing of assessment; accepting some risk; pre- and post-market analysis; explicit communication of the assessment purpose, input and output; more human (dose-response) data and more efficient use of human data; segmenting populations based on physiology; explicit consideration of value judgments in assessment; integration of multiple benefits and risks from multiple domains; explicit recognition of the impact of consumer beliefs, opinions, views, perceptions, and attitudes on behaviour; and segmenting populations based on behaviour; the opportunities proposed here do not provide ultimate solutions; rather, they define a collection of issues to be taken account of in developing methods, tools, practices and policies, as well as refining the regulatory context, for benefit-risk analysis in Food and Nutrition and other fields. Thus, these opportunities will now need to be explored further and incorporated into benefit-risk practice and policy. If accepted, incorporation of these opportunities will also involve a paradigm shift in Food and Nutrition benefit-risk
Neural initialization of audiovisual integration in prereaders at varying risk for developmental dyslexia.

Science.gov (United States)

I Karipidis, Iliana; Pleisch, Georgette; Röthlisberger, Martina; Hofstetter, Christoph; Dornbierer, Dario; Stämpfli, Philipp; Brem, Silvia

2017-02-01

Learning letter-speech sound correspondences is a major step in reading acquisition and is severely impaired in children with dyslexia. Up to now, it remains largely unknown how quickly neural networks adopt specific functions during audiovisual integration of linguistic information when prereading children learn letter-speech sound correspondences. Here, we simulated the process of learning letter-speech sound correspondences in 20 prereading children (6.13-7.17 years) at varying risk for dyslexia by training artificial letter-speech sound correspondences within a single experimental session. Subsequently, we acquired simultaneously event-related potentials (ERP) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans during implicit audiovisual presentation of trained and untrained pairs. Audiovisual integration of trained pairs correlated with individual learning rates in right superior temporal, left inferior temporal, and bilateral parietal areas and with phonological awareness in left temporal areas. In correspondence, a differential left-lateralized parietooccipitotemporal ERP at 400 ms for trained pairs correlated with learning achievement and familial risk. Finally, a late (650 ms) posterior negativity indicating audiovisual congruency of trained pairs was associated with increased fMRI activation in the left occipital cortex. Taken together, a short (audiovisual integration in neural systems that are responsible for processing linguistic information in proficient readers. To conclude, the ability to learn grapheme-phoneme correspondences, the familial history of reading disability, and phonological awareness of prereading children account for the degree of audiovisual integration in a distributed brain network. Such findings on emerging linguistic audiovisual integration could allow for distinguishing between children with typical and atypical reading development. Hum Brain Mapp 38:1038-1055, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals
Can an arthroplasty risk score predict bundled care events after total joint arthroplasty?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Blair S. Ashley, MD

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The validated Arthroplasty Risk Score (ARS predicts the need for postoperative triage to an intensive care setting. We hypothesized that the ARS may also predict hospital length of stay (LOS, discharge disposition, and episode-of-care cost (EOCC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a series of 704 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty over 17 months. Patient characteristics, 90-day EOCC, LOS, and readmission rates were compared before and after ARS implementation. Results: ARS implementation was associated with fewer patients going to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility after discharge (63% vs 74%, P = .002. There was no difference in LOS, EOCC, readmission rates, or complications. While the adoption of the ARS did not change the mean EOCC, ARS >3 was predictive of high EOCC outlier (odds ratio 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.40-5.01, P = .003. Increased ARS correlated with increased EOCC (P = .003. Conclusions: Implementation of the ARS was associated with increased disposition to home. It was predictive of high EOCC and should be considered in risk adjustment variables in alternative payment models. Keywords: Bundled payments, Risk stratification, Arthroplasty
A comparison between integrated risk assessment and classical health/environmental assessment: Emerging beneficial properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekizawa, Jun; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2005-01-01

Both humans and wildlife are exposed to various types of halogenated organic compounds such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), typically old chemicals, and tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPM) and brominated flame retardants, some new chemicals, simultaneously. Classical risk assessment has evaluated health and ecological risks independently by experts from different disciplines. Taking into considerations the recent concerns about endocrine disrupting chemicals and the progress of research in related areas, we integrated and assessed data on exposure and potential effects in humans and wildlife. Comparisons were made for organ concentrations, body burdens of several organochlorine compounds (OCs), metabolic capacities between humans and various wildlife. When we integrate the knowledge on effects and exposure in humans and in wildlife, new insights were suggested about similarities and/or differences in potential effects among various human populations living on different foods and having different body burdens. Combining existing information with emerging knowledge of mechanisms of actions on endocrine disrupting chemicals after exposure to above chemicals during early developmental stages will further elucidate potential risks from exposure to those chemicals
Comparison of Serum Concentrations of Total Cholesterol and Total ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most dangerous tropical diseases that complicates HIV infection in Nigeria to date. Over two million Nigerians are known to be infected with TB and many more are at risk of the infection. Serum concentrations of total cholesterol and total lipid of 117 female TB patients attending chest clinic at ...
The carcinogenic risk of high dose total body irradiation in non-human primates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broerse, J.J.; Bartstra, R.W.; Bekkum, D.W. van; Hage, M.H. van der; Zurcher, C.; Zwieten, M.J. van; Hollander, C.F.

2000-01-01

High dose total body irradiation (TBI) in combination with chemotherapy, followed by rescue with bone marrow transplantation (BMT), is increasingly used for the treatment of haematological malignancies. With the increasing success of this treatment and its current introduction for treating refractory autoimmune diseases the risk of radiation carcinogenesis is of growing concern. Studies on turnout induction in non-human primates are of relevance in this context since the response of this species to radiation does not differ much from that in man. Since the early sixties, studies have been performed on acute effects in Rhesus monkeys and the protective action of bone marrow transplantation after irradiation with X-rays (average total body dose 6.8 Gy) and fission neutrons (average dose 3.4 Gy). Of those monkeys, which were irradiated and reconstituted with autologous bone marrow, 20 animals in the X-irradiated group and nine animals in the neutron group survived more than 3 years. A group of 21 non-irradiated Rhesus monkeys of a comparable age distribution served as controls. All animals were regularly screened for the occurrence of neoplasms. Complete necropsies were performed after natural death or euthanasia. At post-irradiation intervals of 4-21 years an appreciable number of tumours was observed. In the neutron irradiated group eight out of nine animals died with one or more malignant tumours. In the X-irradiated group this fraction was 10 out of 20. The tumours in the control group, in seven out of the 21 animals, appeared at much older a-e compared with those in the irradiated cohorts. The histogenesis of the tumours was diverse with a preponderance of renal carcinoma, sarcomas among which osteosarcormas, and malignant glomus tumours in the irradiated groups. When corrected for competing risks, the carcinogenic risk of TBI in the Rhesus monkeys is similar to that derived from the studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The increase of the risk by a
Ten-Year Trends and Independent Risk Factors for Unplanned Readmission Following Elective Total Joint Arthroplasty at a Large Urban Academic Hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Varacallo, Matthew A; Herzog, Leah; Toossi, Nader; Johanson, Norman A

2017-06-01

Total joint arthroplasty procedures continue to provide consistent, long-term success and high patient satisfaction scores. However, early unplanned readmission to the hospital imparts significant financial risks to individual institutions as we shift away from the traditional fee-for-service payment model. Using a combination of our hospital's administrative database and retrospective chart reviews, we report the 30-day and 90-day readmission rates and all causes of readmission following all unilateral, primary elective total hip and knee arthroplasty procedures at a large, urban, academic hospital from 2004 to 2013. In total, 1165 primary total hip (511) and knee (654) arthroplasty procedures were identified, and the 30-day and 90-day unplanned readmission rates were 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively. A multivariate regression model controlled for a variety of potential clinical and surgical confounders. Increasing body mass index levels, an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of ≥3, and discharge to an inpatient rehab facility each independently correlated with risk of both 30-day and 90-day unplanned readmission to our institution. Additionally, use of general anesthesia during the procedure independently correlated with risk of readmission at 30 days only, while congestive heart failure independently correlated with risk of 90-day unplanned readmission. Readmissions related directly to the surgical site accounted for 47% of the cases, and collectively totaled more than any single medical or clinical complication leading to unplanned readmission within the 90-day period. Increasing body mass index values, general anesthesia, an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of ≥3, and discharge to an inpatient rehab facility each were independent risk factors for early unplanned readmission. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

2008-01-01

To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....
The contribution of disaster management to integrated flood risk management strategies: lessons learned from the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kolen, B.; van Alphen, J

2017-01-01

An integrated flood risk management (IFRM) strategy consist of a comprehensive set of measures to reduce the risk: protective measures (to reduce the probability of a flood), and land use planning and disaster management (to reduce the consequences of a flood. In the Netherlands this is called a
Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

2013-11-01

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.
Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)
Levels of plasma selenium and urinary total arsenic interact to affect the risk for prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsueh, Yu-Mei; Su, Chien-Tien; Shiue, Horng-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Jen; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Lin, Ying-Chin; Tsai, Cheng-Shiuan; Huang, Chao-Yuan

2017-09-01

This study investigated whether plasma selenium levels modified the risk for prostate cancer (PC) related to arsenic exposure. We conducted a case-control study that included 318 PC patients and 318 age-matched, healthy control subjects. Urinary arsenic profiles were examined using HPLC-HG-AAS and plasma selenium levels were measured by ICP-MS. We found that plasma selenium levels displayed a significant dose-dependent inverse association with PC. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for PC was 0.07 (0.04-0.13) among participants with a plasma selenium level >28.06 μg/dL vs. ≤19.13 μg/dL. A multivariate analysis showed that participants with a urinary total arsenic concentration >29.28 μg/L had a significantly higher OR (1.75, 1.06-2.89) for PC than participants with ≤29.89 μg/L. The combined presence of a low plasma selenium level and a high urinary total arsenic concentration exponentially increased the OR for PC, and additively interacted with PSA at levels ≥20 ng/mL. This is the first epidemiological study to examine the combined effects of plasma selenium and urinary total arsenic levels on the OR for PC. Our data suggest a low plasma selenium level coupled with a high urinary total arsenic concentration creates a significant risk for aggressive PC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Online communication among adolescents: An integrated model on its attraction, opportunities, and risks.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

2011-01-01

Adolescents far outnumber adults in their use of e-communication technologies, such as instant messaging and social network sites. In this article, we present an integrative model that helps us to understand both the appeal of these technologies and their risks and opportunities for the psychosocial
A comparative examination of currency risk pricing and market integration in the stock markets of Nigeria and South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odongo Kodongo

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We examine the pricing of currency risk and market integration in the equity markets of Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Generalized Method of Moments with a multi-beta asset pricing model and firm-level data, we find that currency risk is partly unconditionally priced in South Africa's stock market, with this market being largely integrated with the world equity markets. Conversely, currency risk is not priced in Nigeria's equity market, which also shows no evidence of integration with the world equity markets. Interestingly, a portfolio analysis of firms reveals a size based return sensitivity to both world equity markets and exchange rate volatility across the two countries. Therefore, while general results suggest that Nigeria, rather than South Africa, would provide greater diversification benefits to international investors with little or no worry about hedging unconditional exchange rate risk, that view must be nuanced when considering large size firms which are consistently sensitive to the two factors across both countries.
Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

OpenAIRE

Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

2017-01-01

Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...
Use of BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 in radiation risk assessment: Lifetime total cancer mortality risk estimates at low doses and low dose rates for low-LET radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

In November 1986, the Department of Defense (DoD) asked the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination (CIRRPC) to develop a coordinated Federal position on risk assessment for low levels of ionizing radiation. Since Federal risk assessment activities are based primarily on the scientific data and analyses in authoritative review documents prepared by groups like the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations' Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), DoD proposed that the CIRRPC Science Panel undertake the task of providing coordinated interagency positions on the use of information in the reports of such groups. The practice has been for individual Federal agencies to interpret and decide independently how to use the information provided in such reports. As a result of its deliberations, the Subpanel recommends two nominal risk estimates for lifetime total cancer mortality following whole-body exposure to low levels of low-LET ionizing radiation, one for the general population and one for the working-age population (see Section II). The recommended risk estimates reflect the general agreement of information in BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 for total cancer mortality. The Subpanel's risk estimates and associated statements are intended to meet the needs of the Federal agencies for: (a) values that are current; (b) values that are relevant to the low-dose and low dose-rate ionizing radiation exposures principally encountered in carrying out Federal responsibilities; (c) a statement of the change in the estimates of lifetime total cancer mortality relative to estimates in previous authoritative review documents; and (d) a practical statement on the scientific uncertainty associated with applying the lifetime total cancer mortality values at very low doses
Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guy De Backer

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%. Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk.

Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

Science.gov (United States)

De Backer, Guy; Petrella, Robert J.; Goudev, Assen R.; Radaideh, Ghazi Ahmad; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; Pathak, Atul

2013-01-01

Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER) survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT) for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men) and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD) systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%). Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a) effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b) the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk. PMID:23997946
A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2017-06-15

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.
A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

2017-01-01

When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode
Risk and Cost of 90-Day Complications in Morbidly and Superobese Patients After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Meller, Menachem M; Toossi, Nader; Johanson, Norman A; Gonzalez, Mark H; Son, Min-Sun; Lau, Edmund C

2016-10-01

This study investigated the risk and cost of postoperative complications associated with morbid and super obesity after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients who underwent TKA using Medicare hospital claims data. The International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code V85.4x was used to identify morbidly obese patients (body mass index [BMI] ≥40 kg/m(2)) and superobese patients (BMI ≥50 kg/m(2)) in 2011-2013. Patients without any BMI-related diagnosis codes were used as controls. Twelve complications occurred in the 90-day period after TKA were analyzed using multivariate Cox models, adjusting for patient demographic, morbidity, and institutional factors. In addition, hospital charges and payments were compared from primary surgery through subsequent 90 days. Morbidly obese patients showed a significantly elevated risk in most complications examined, with a 2-fold or higher risk in dislocation and wound dehiscence. In addition, death, periprosthetic joint infection, acute renal failure, and knee revision had significant hazard ratios between 1.5 and 2.0. However, risk of deep vein thrombosis and acute myocardial infarction did not increase for the morbidly obese patients. Superobese patients had significant increase in risk of infection, wound dehiscence, acute renal failures, revisions, death, and readmission compared with patients with BMI 40-49 kg/m(2). Significant dose-response trend was found between the level of BMI and risk for death, dislocation, implant failure, infection, readmission, revision, wound dehiscence, and acute renal failure. Controlling for patient and institutional factors, each TKA had an average total hospital charges of $75,884 among superobese patients, compared to $65,118 for the control group, a difference of $10,767. Medicare payment for the superobese patients was also higher, but only by $2703. Morbidly obese patients pose a significantly
Evaluation of sustainable supply chain risk management using an integrated fuzzy TOPSIS- CRITIC approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rostamzadeh, Reza; Ghorabaee, Mehdi Keshavarz; Govindan, Kannan

2018-01-01

Supply chain risk management research has mainly mistreated the important of sustainability issues. Moreover, there is little knowledge about sustainable management of risk and supply chain and the way they impose losses for firms. Risk management's duty in the supply chain is to identify, analyze......, and provide solutions for accountability, control and monitor the risks in the economic and production cycle. This study aims to develop a framework for the sustainable supply chain risk management (SSCRM) evaluation. To this end, an integrated fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed...... based on the technique in order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. The literature was reviewed and the potential criteria were identified. Through an expert panel the criteria were filtered. Seven main...
Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-01-01

The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies
Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies. Refs, figs, tabs.
Total petroleum hydrocarbons: Characterization of physico-chemical behaviour and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gemoets, J.; Lookman, R.; Vanermen, G.; Houtven, D. van; Bertels, D.; Weltens, R.; Cornelis, C. [VITO, Mol (Belgium); Vries, P. de; Sterren, G. van der; Alphenaar, A. [TTE, Deventer (Netherlands)

2003-07-01

Several methods are available for the characterization of petroleum hydrocarbons. Recently, the TPHCWG (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group) developed a method based upon a silica column separation of aromatics and aliphatics and a GC-FID subdivision into equivalent-carbon fractions (EC) ('TPH-method'). Within NOBIS (Dutch Research program Biological I-situ Remediation), another method was developed based upon an equilibrium-experiment of the oil-polluted soil with water (column recirculation), which was further developed by TTE ('TTE-method'). This method uses measured water solubilities of individual oil components and GC-retention times yielding a subdivision of the hydrocarbons into compound classes. The present study aims at a verification (reproducibility; accuracy) and optimization of both methods and a critical review on the relevance of the proposed fractions for the prediction of human health risks. Two 'umpire' methods were selected for reference: GS-MS in full scan mode and liquid state NMR. (orig.)
Integrating Security Risk Management into Business Process Management for the Cloud

OpenAIRE

Goettelmann , Elio; Mayer , Nicolas; Godart , Claude

2014-01-01

International audience; Security issues are still preventing wider adoption of cloud computing, especially for businesses which are handling sensitive information. Indeed, by outsourcing its information system (IS), a company can lose control over its infrastructure, its software or even its data. Therefore, new methods and tools need to be defined to respond to this challenge. In this paper we propose to integrate Security Risk Management approaches into Business Process Management to effect...
Newly developed integrated model to reduce risks in the electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mo, Birger

2001-01-01

A new model which integrates hydro-scheduling and financial hedging has been developed in cooperation with Norsk Hydro. We believe the new tool will be useful for owners of hydropower plants that want to reduce risks in the power market. The model development started in 1997 and was financed by Norsk Hydro. As of 1998, the main financial contributor has been the Research Council of Norway through a project in the Strategic Institute Programme. (author)
Total and HDL cholesterol and risk of stroke. EUROSTROKE: a collaborative study among research centres in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.L. Bots (Michiel); D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); P.C. Elwood; Y. Nikitin; J.T. Salonen; A. Freire de Concalves; D. Inzitari; J. Sivenius; V. Benetou (Vassiliki); J. Tuomilehto; P.J. Koudstaal (Peter Jan)

2002-01-01

textabstractBACKGROUND: Controversy remains on the relation between serum lipids levels and stroke risk. This paper investigated the association of total and HDL cholesterol level to fatal and non-fatal, and haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke in four European cohorts participating
Maximized liquid radwaste volume reduction through a total integrated process: A new technology success story

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rae, G.A.

1996-01-01

A fundamental nuclear industry goal is the minimization of the generation of radioactive waste. This goal has been dramatically reinforced over the past few years due to the spiraling increased costs of both commercial and DOE disposal. To assist in meeting these goals and reducing the industry's costs, NUKEM initiated a new technology program to maximize the reduction of liquid radwaste through the use of a systematic approach or TIPS (Total Integrated Process System). This concept evaluates the total life cycle of various technologies in a combination that results in the final waste form being minimized to the pure solids content of the waste stream. Additionally, it allows for a final waste form that maximizes the utilization of the waste package and is conditioned to be readily acceptable to additional processing to meet new waste form requirements at future disposal sites, should interim storage of the waste be required. The TIPS, although first introduced at commercial facilities, has broad applications for DOE's liquid waste streams
Global electricity transformation: The critical need for integrated market design and risk management research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hung-po Chao

2006-01-01

The past three decades transformed the electricity industry. The essential goals of liberalization have been to lower costs, improve reliability, and stimulate investment and innovations through establishment of competitive electricity markets, while also relying on market mechanisms to provide creative solutions to environmental and security problems. In many instances, these goals have been achieved, but the occurrence of some spectacular market failures have brought into question the whole restructuring effort. This paper reviews recent experiences with market reform and concludes that a significant cause of failure has been the rush to unbundle vertically integrated utilities without sufficient consideration of alternative ways to manage the risk of electricity market restructuring. In particular, there is a critical need for integrated market design and risk management research to improve the process of market transformation by taking a more evolutionary approach to discover a 'Third Way' above vertical integration and full unbundling. Such research can offer a crucial feedback link to the restructuring process by identifying important lessons to be learned from past experience and developing new analytical tools to help introduce more successful market designs for the future. (author)
Risk factors for periprosthetic joint infection following primary total hip or knee arthroplasty: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Lingde; Cao, Junming; Zhang, Yingze; Ding, Wenyuan; Shen, Yong

2017-06-01

To identify risk factors for periprosthetic joint infection following primary total joint arthroplasty, a systematic search was performed in Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane library databases. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) or standardised mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Patient characteristics, surgical-related factors and comorbidities, as potential risk factors, were investigated. The main factors associated with infection after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) were male gender (OR, 1·48; 95% CI, 1.19-1.85), age (SMD, -0·10; 95% CI, -0.17--0.03), obesity (OR, 1·54; 95% CI, 1·25-1·90), alcohol abuse (OR, 1·88; 95% CI, 1·32-2·68), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale > 2 (OR, 2·06; 95% CI, 1·77-2·39), operative time (SMD, 0·49; 95% CI, 0·19-0·78), drain usage (OR, 0·36; 95% CI, 0·18-0·74), diabetes mellitus (OR, 1·58; 95% CI, 1·37-1·81), urinary tract infection (OR, 1·53; 95% CI, 1.09-2.16) and rheumatoid arthritis (OR, 1·57; 95% CI, 1·30-1·88). Among these risk factors, ASA score > 2 was a high risk factor, and drain usage was a protective factor. There was positive evidence for some factors that could be used to prevent the onset of infection after TJA. © 2016 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Fayaz

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.
Factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents: an integrative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Moura, Luciana Ramos de; Torres, Lilian Machado; Cadete, Matilde Meire Miranda; Cunha, Cristiane de Freitas

2018-01-01

Identifying knowledge about factors associated with health risk behaviors among Brazilian adolescents. An integrative review of the literature conducted in the Cochrane, IBECS, LILACS, MEDLINE and SciELO databases in relation to risk behaviors recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thirty-seven (37) studies were analyzed, with a predominance of risky sexual behavior, tobacco use and violent behavior. Advancing age favored unprotected sex, alcohol and tobacco use. Family and friends influence was related to smoking and alcoholism. Males were more involved in situations of violence and the female gender was associated with physical inactivity. Belonging to a lower economic class was related to unprotected sex, physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary behaviors and violence. Studying in private school was related to unhealthy dietary behavior. Risk behaviors were related to social, economic and family factors and they tend to agglomerate.
Cost benefit risk - a concept for management of integrated urban wastewater systems?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hauger, Mikkel B.; Rauch, W.; Linde, Jens Jørgen

2002-01-01

Urban wastewater systems should be evaluated and analysed from an integrated point of view, taking all parts of the system, that is sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving waters into consideration. Risk and parameter uncertainties are aspects that hardly ever have been addressed...... in the evaluation and design of urban wastewater systems. In this paper we present and discuss a probabilistic approach for evaluation of the performance of urban wastewater systems. Risk analysis together with the traditional cost-benefit analysis is a special variant of multi-criteria analysis that seeks to find...... the most feasible improvement alternative for an urban wastewater system. The most feasible alternative in this context is the alternative that has the best performance, meaning that the alternative has the lowest sum of costs, benefits and risks. The sum is expressed as the Net Present Cost (NPC). To use...
Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

Science.gov (United States)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2013-04-01

Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is
A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different
From heat integration targets toward implementation – A TSA (total site analysis)-based design approach for heat recovery systems in industrial clusters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hackl, Roman; Harvey, Simon

2015-01-01

The European process industry is facing major challenges to decrease production costs. One strategy to achieve this is by increasing energy efficiency. Single chemical processes are often well-integrated and the tools to target and design such measures are well developed. Site-wide heat integration based on total site analysis tools can be used to identify opportunities to further increase energy efficiency. However, the methodology has to be developed further in order to enable identification of practical heat integration measures in a systematic way. Designing site-wide heat recovery systems across an industrial cluster is complex and involves aspects apart from thermal process and utility flows. This work presents a method for designing a roadmap of heat integration investments based on total site analysis. The method is applied to a chemical cluster in Sweden. The results of the case study show that application of the proposed method can achieve up to 42% of the previously targeted hot utility savings of 129 MW. A roadmap of heat integration systems is suggested, ranging from less complex systems that achieve a minor share of the heat recovery potential to sophisticated, strongly interdependent systems demanding large investments and a high level of collaboration. - Highlights: • Methodology focused on the practical implementation of site-wide heat recovery. • Algorithm to determine a roadmap of heat integration investments. • Case study: 42% hot utility savings potential at a pay-back period of 3.9y.

Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D

2017-07-01

Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integrating total quality management principles with the requirements of DOE Order 5700.6C

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hedges, D. [Scientific Ecology Group, Inc. (United States)

1993-03-01

The Department of Energy has recently required its field offices, contractors, and subcontractors to implement DOE Order 5700.6C, ``Quality Assurance,`` for all work on waste management contracts. The order restructures the 18 criteria of NQA-1 and focuses on the role of management in achieving and assuring quality, performance of activities to achieve and assure quality, and management`s assessment of its performance for the purpose of identifying improvements to be made. The DOE order also introduces elements of the total quality management (TQM) philosophy, which were not present in DOE Order 5700.6B. The research community within DOE has recently issued a document entitled DOE Order 5700.6C Implementation Guide, which is more explicit about the integration of TQM principles with the implementation of DOE Order 5700.6C in research facilities. The Environmental Protection Agency is sponsoring a quality assurance standard (ANSI/ASQC E-4) to replace EPA`s QAMS 005/80. The new standard is consistent with DOE Order 5700.6C, and it also stresses the integration of TQM principles within the quality assurance process. This paper discusses the intent and philosophy of the 10 criteria of the new DOE order, the status of ANSI/ASQC E-4, and how to effectively integrate TQM principles into the quality assurance process as the conversion is made from NQA-1 to DOE Order 5700.6C. The purpose and value of DOE Order 5700.6C Implementation Guide for research will also be discussed.
Safety and resiliency in action: Integrating risk management into local development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebay Jorge S.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the efforts of the local government unit (LGU of San Jose de Buenavista, in the Province of Antique in central Philippines to manage risks associated with multiple hazards to protect the people, their livelihoods and local development gains. More specifically, it analyzes the process of pursuing risk management objectives vis-a-vis national and international disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM norms, without loosing sight of local contextual realities that directly influence people’s vulnerabilities and capacities. Risk management initiatives in the LGU revolve around four key areas namely disaster prevention and mitigation, disaster preparedness, emergency response, and recovery and rehabilitation. Binding these initiatives are actions that integrate governance mechanisms with scientific data and sectoral and community participation to develop a comprehensive plan of action and standard operating procedures that will serve as guideposts in the process of building a safer community. The experience of San Jose de Buenavista also suggests that cost saving strategies an be replicated by communities and organizations that have financial limitations to pursue DRRM objectives. This paper contends that risk management is a fundamental development strategy to pursue local development goals and to sustain efforts to protect development gains in the long run. This can be done using a combination of governance, risk assessment, knowledge management, vulnerability reduction and preparedness strategies. Local leadership, people’s participation, environmental resource management and continuous capability building are key elements of the process. Ultimately, risk management must be mainstreamed into local development to develop community resiliency.
Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P. Kettle

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.
A risk characterization of safety research areas for integral fast reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Tibbrook, R.W.; Wei, T.Y.; Wright, A.E.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of integral fast reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure to critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR safety and related base technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorities
A risk characterization of safety research areas for Integral Fast Reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure of critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR Safety and related Base Technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorites
An Approach for Integrating Toxicogenomic Data in Risk Assessment: The Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and ...
Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ewert, F.; Rötter, R. P.; Bindi, M.; Weber, H.; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, K. C.; Olesen, J. E.; van Ittersum, M. K.; Janssen, S.; Rivingtom, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J. R.; Stewart, D.; Vegahen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palouso, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P. P.; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, S.

2015-01-01

Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015
Total System Performance Assessment-License Application Methods and Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. McNeish

2002-09-13

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issue (KTI) agreements, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (CNWRA 2002 [158449]), and 10 CFR Part 63. This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are utilized in this document.
Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), Version 5.0: Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) reference manual. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, K.D.; Kvarfordt, K.J.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-07-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the use the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification to report generation. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since then, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 5.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 5.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as earlier versions and ads the ability to perform location transformations, seismic analysis, and provides enhancements to the user interface as well as improved algorithm performance. Additionally, version 5.0 contains new alphanumeric fault tree and event used for event tree rules, recovery rules, and end state partitioning
An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.
Total, Dietary, and Supplemental Vitamin C Intake and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Curhan, Gary C; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N

2016-03-01

Previous studies of vitamin C and kidney stones were conducted mostly in men and either reported disparate results for supplemental and dietary vitamin C or did not examine dietary vitamin C. Prospective cohort analysis. 156,735 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I and II and 40,536 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Total, dietary, and supplemental vitamin C intake, adjusted for age, body mass index, thiazide use, and dietary factors. Incident kidney stones. During a median follow-up of 11.3 to 11.7 years, 6,245 incident kidney stones were identified. After multivariable adjustment, total vitamin C intake (vitamin C intake for the 500- to 999-mg/d category was ∼700mg/d. Supplemental vitamin C intake (no use [reference], vitamin C intake was not associated with stones among men or women, although few participants had dietary intakes > 700mg/d. Nutrient intakes derived from food-frequency questionnaires, lack of data on stone composition for all cases. Total and supplemental vitamin C intake was significantly associated with higher risk for incident kidney stones in men, but not in women. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Cross-sectional associations of total sitting and leisure screen time with cardiometabolic risk in adults. Results from the HUNT Study, Norway

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chau, J.Y.; Grunseit, A.; Midthjell, K.; Holmen, J.; Holmen, T.L.; Bauman, A.E.; van der Ploeg, H.P.

2014-01-01

Objectives: To examine associations of total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use with cardiometabolic risk biomarkers in adults. Design: Population based cross-sectional study. Methods: Waist circumference, BMI, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, non-fasting
Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

2016-01-01

Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by
A novel integration effort to reduce the risk for alcohol-exposed pregnancy among women attending urban STD clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hutton, Heidi E; Chander, Geetanjali; Green, Patricia P; Hutsell, Catherine A; Weingarten, Kimberly; Peterson, Karen L

2014-01-01

Alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) is a significant public health problem in the United States. Sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics serve female clients with a high prevalence of heavy alcohol consumption coupled with ineffective contraceptive use. Project CHOICES (Changing High-Risk AlcOhol Use and Increasing Contraception Effectiveness) is an evidence-based, brief intervention to lower risk of AEP by targeting alcohol and contraceptive behaviors through motivational interviewing and individualized feedback. We describe our experience integrating and implementing CHOICES in STD clinics. This endeavor aligns with CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention's program collaboration and service integration strategic priority to strengthen collaborative work across disease areas and integrate services provided by related programs at the client level.
Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Gehlhaus, Martin W; Gift, Jeffrey S; Hogan, Karen A; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-07-15

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.
Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

2011-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Amelung, Volker E; Juhnke, Christin

2018-01-12

Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial) dependence of the agent's returns on the provider's gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs) in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating "accountability" to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods of risk adjustment have widely differing model and forecast
Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: Phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1984-10-01

A research program was initiated to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three-phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second

Analysis of the LaSalle Unit 2 Nuclear Power Plant, Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrell, W.L.; Payne, A.C. Jr.; Daniel, S.L.

1992-10-01

This report is a description of the internal flood analysis performed on the LaSalle County Nuclear Generating Station, Unit 2. A more detailed integration with the internal events analysis than in prior flood risk assessments was accomplished. The same system fault trees used for the internal events analysis were also used for the flood analysis, which included modeling of components down to the contact pair level. Subsidiary equations were created to map the effects of pipe failures. All component locations were traced and mapped into the fault trees. The effects of floods were then mapped directly onto the internal plant model and their relative importance was evaluated. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that most plant areas had a negligible contribution to the flood-induced core damage frequency. This was influenced strongly by the fact that the LaSalle plant was designed with a high level of concern about the effects of external events such as fire and flood and significant separation was maintained between systems in the original design. Detailed analysis of the remaining flood scenarios identified only two that contributed significantly to risk. The flood analysis resulted in a total (mean) core damage frequency of 3.23E-6 per year
Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1999-01-01

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs
Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.
RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura – Maria POPESCU

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.
Integration of Public Finance Administration into ISO 9001 Total Quality Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hakan KİTAPÇI

2012-06-01

Full Text Available In Chronology; although they show different progress from each others, today Total Quality Management (TQM and Internal Auditing are two management concepts that are in mutual interaction and provide help for development of each other. TQM is a human based management concept that aims to increase customer satisfaction and enhance quality with decreasing cost in organizations. Internal Auditing is an independent, objective assurance and consultancy action on organization’s efficiency, productivity and accordance with laws and regulations. In this study; interrelation of public financial administration and TQM, how they interact each other and their size are displayed with searching lots of related scientific resources and a sample from public is given about application. In this study internal auditing is accepted as a management philosophy which has an important in TQM, and also which Exhausted risk, IT systems, internal Auditing Process, relationship with environment, performance and quality. At the end of study we can easily say that the new financial system realizes the ISO 9001 standards a high degree.
Natural-technological risk assessment and management

Science.gov (United States)

Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

2016-04-01

EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.
An integrated PRA module for fast determination of risk significance and improvement effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chao, Chun-Chang; Lin, Jyh-Der

2004-01-01

With the widely use of PRA technology in risk-informed applications, to predict the changes of CDF and LERF becomes a standard process for risk-informed applications. This paper describes an integrated PRA module prepared for risk-informed applications. The module contains a super risk engine, a super fault tree engine, an advanced PRA model and a tool for data base maintenance. The individual element of the module also works well for purpose other than risk-informed applications. The module has been verified and validated through a series of scrupulous benchmark tests with similar software. The results of the benchmark tests showed that the module has remarkable accuracy and speed even for an extremely large-size top-logic fault tree as well as for the case in which large amount of MCSs may be generated. The risk monitor for nuclear power plants in Taiwan is the first application to adopt the module. The results predicted by the risk monitor are now accepted by the regulatory agency. A tool to determine the risk significance according to the inspection findings will be the next application to adopt the module in the near future. This tool classified the risk significance into four different color codes according to the level of increase on CDF. Experience of application showed that the flexibility, the accuracy and speed of the module make it useful in any risk-informed applications when risk indexes must be determined by resolving a PRA model. (author)
Risk of colorectal cancer in relation to frequency and total amount of red meat consumption. Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Smolińska, Katarzyna; Paluszkiewicz, Piotr

2010-08-30

The colon and rectum are common sites of food-related cancer in developed countries. Recent studies strongly suggest that red meat intake is associated with colon cancer, whereas for rectal cancer such an association still needs to be proved. The aim of the study was to assess the role of total amount and frequency of red meat intake in colorectal carcinogenesis based on published data using meta-analysis methods. The literature published until 2009 was selected from: MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, CancerLit, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library databases. The used search terms were: colorectal cancer, colon cancer, rectal cancer, meat intake, red meat intake, red meat consumption, meat consumption, colorectal cancer risk, colon cancer risk, rectal cancer risk and lifestyle. Articles investigating red meat intake of more often than once a day or 50 g per day were reviewed and selected for further analysis. Twenty-two studies fulfilled the established criteria. A meta-analysis confirmed the carcinogenic effect of the consumption of over 50 g of red meat per day for the colon (relative risk 1.21, 1.07-1.37) but not for the rectum (relative risk 1.30, 0.90-1.89). Red meat intake more frequently than once a day can induce both colonic (relative risk 1.37, 1.09-1.71) and rectal cancer (relative risk 1.43, 1.24-1.64). Red meat intake is associated with elevated risk of developing colorectal cancer. The frequency of red meat consumption rather than total amount of consumed meat is associated with a higher risk of colorectal carcinogenesis.
Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Islam, M.A.

2015-01-01

Improvement of risk assessment by integrating toxicological and epidemiological approaches: the case of isoflavones

PhD-thesis Mohammed Ariful Islam

This thesis describes the results of a research project that aimed at the improvement of
Tea consumption and risk of cardiovascular outcomes and total mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Chi; Qin, Ying-Yi; Wei, Xin; Yu, Fei-Fei; Zhou, Yu-Hao; He, Jia

2015-01-01

Studies that investigated the association between tea consumption and the risk of major cardiovascular events have reported inconsistent results. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective observational studies in order to summarize the evidence regarding the association between tea consumption and major cardiovascular outcomes or total mortality. In July 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library, followed by manual searches of reference lists from the resulting articles to identify other relevant studies. Prospective observational studies that reported effect estimates, with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, cardiac death, stroke death, or total mortality for more than two dosages of tea consumption were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to determine the risk of major cardiovascular outcomes associated with an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day. Of the 736 citations identified from database searches, we included 22 prospective studies from 24 articles reporting data on 856,206 individuals, and including 8,459 cases of CHD, 10,572 of stroke, 5,798 cardiac deaths, 2,350 stroke deaths, and 13,722 total deaths. Overall, an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (relative risk [RR], 0.73; 95 % CI: 0.53–0.99; P = 0.045), cardiac death (RR, 0.74; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.86; P < 0.001), stroke (RR, 0.82; 95 % CI: 0.73–0.92; P = 0.001), total mortality (RR, 0.76; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.91; P = 0.003), cerebral infarction (RR, 0.84; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.98; P = 0.023), and intracerebral hemorrhage (RR, 0.79; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.87; P < 0.001), but had little or no effect on stroke mortality (RR, 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.83–1.05; P = 0.260). The findings from this meta-analysis indicate that increased tea consumption is associated with a reduced risk of CHD, cardiac death, stroke, cerebral infarction, and
Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Risk factors and clinical course of hungry bone syndrome after total parathyroidectomy in dialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Lo-Yi; Wong, Ping-Nam; Sin, Ho-Kwan; Wong, Yuk-Yi; Lo, Kwok-Chi; Chan, Shuk-Fan; Lo, Man-Wai; Lo, Kin-Yee; Mak, Siu-Ka; Wong, Andrew Kui-Man

2017-01-10

Hungry bone syndrome (HBS) is an important postoperative complication after parathyroidectomy for severe secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT). There is, however, little data in the literature on its detailed clinical course, and the associated risk factors remain controversial. We did a single-center retrospective study on 62 consecutive dialysis patients who underwent total parathyroidectomy for SHPT to examine the risk factors, clinical course and outcome. Data on demographic characteristics, perioperative laboratory parameters including serum calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and parathyroid hormone (PTH), drug treatment for SHPT and operative details of parathyroidectomy were collected. Seventeen (27.4%) patients developed severe postoperative hypocalcemia with HBS. The serum calcium dropped progressively while serum ALP rose after operation until 2 weeks later when serum calcium reached the trough and serum ALP peaked. Serum phosphate also fell but stabilized between 4 and 14 days. The total postoperative calcium and vitamin D supplementation was significantly larger, and hospital stay was significantly longer in the group with HBS as compared with those without HBS. Young age, high body weight, high preoperative ALP level, and low preoperative calcium level independently predicted the development of HBS while preoperative PTH and use of cinacalcet or paricalcitol did not. HBS was common after total parathyroidectomy in patients with SHPT, and it is important to closely monitor the postoperative serum calcium, phosphate and ALP levels in the following 2 weeks, especially for those at risk. The implications of our findings on perioperative management are discussed.
Integrated environmental risk assessment for petroleum-contaminated sites - a North American case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.; Huang, G.H.; Chakma, A.

1998-01-01

In this study, an integrated risk assessment approach is proposed for evaluating environmental risks derived from petroleum-contaminated sites. The proposed approach is composed of (i) a hydrocarbon spill screening model (HSSM) which is used for simulating immiscible flow of released hydrocarbons in vadose zone, formation of lens in capillary fringe, dissolution of pollutants at water table, and transport of the pollutants to receptors, and (ii) a fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) model which is developed for comprehensively evaluating risks caused by a number of pollutants with different impact characteristics, based on the HSSM results. This hybrid HSSM-FRA approach was applied to a case study for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada, where soil and groundwater was contaminated by industrial wastes containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEXs). The results suggest that the HSSM-FRA can provide insight into the potential risk to the receptor of concern downward the aquifer and can serve as a basis for further remediation-related decision analysis. (author)
Total Mercury in Squalid Callista Megapitaria squalida from the SW Gulf of California, Mexico: Tissue Distribution and Human Health Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Romo-Piñera, Abril K; Escobar-Sánchez, Ofelia; Ruelas-Inzunza, Jorge; Frías-Espericueta, Martín G

2018-03-01

We evaluated the total Hg concentration in different tissues of squalid callista Megapitaria squalida in order to measure Hg distribution in tissue and to estimate human health risk. Samples were obtained by free diving in the SW Gulf of California, Mexico. Concentrations are given on a wet weight basis. A total of 89 squalid callista specimens were obtained, presenting an average Hg concentration of 0.07 ± 0.04 µg g -1 . There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) in Hg concentration between tissues (visceral mass = 0.09 ± 0.08 µg g -1 ; mantle = 0.06 ± 0.07 µg g -1 ; muscle = 0.06 ± 0.04 µg g -1 ). The low Hg values found in squalid callista and its low risk quotient (HQ = 0.03) suggest that the consumption of squalid callista does not represent a human health risk. However, HQ calculated using MeHg was > 1, it which could indicate a potential risk related to consumption of clams.
Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I. A knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, P.S.; Thomsen, M.; Assmuth, T.

2010-01-01

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environ...... and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management.......This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human...... and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again...
EXPANDING INFANT MENTAL HEALTH TREATMENT SERVICES TO AT-RISK PRESCHOOLERS AND THEIR FAMILIES THROUGH THE INTEGRATION OF RELATIONAL PLAY THERAPY.

Science.gov (United States)

Farley, Jennifer L; Whipple, Ellen E

2017-09-01

The expansion of infant mental health (IMH) to at-risk preschoolers and their families has contributed to the integration of relational play therapy (RPT) into IMH treatment services for this population. Integrating RPT allows access to specialized play and expressive techniques specific to preschool and family development, which improves the clinical ability to meet the multiple and complex needs of at-risk parent-child dyads and their families. This article will examine the RPT literature and explore the similarities and differences between IMH and RPT. In addition, two case studies will highlight a five-phase, integrative clinical-treatment process and provide insight into how IMH clinicians are integrating RPT models and maintaining adherence to the IMH treatment approach. © 2017 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.
Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.
Acyl/free carnitine ratio is a risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatoduodenectomy and total pancreatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Masafumi; Nakata, Kohei; Matsumoto, Hideo; Ohtsuka, Takao; Yoshida, Koji; Tokunaga, Shoji; Hino, Keisuke

Hepatic steatosis, one of the most frequent long-term complications of pancreatectomy, influences not only hepatic function but also survival rate. However, its risk factors and pathogenesis have not been established. The purpose of this study was to clarify the risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. In this retrospective study of 21 patients who had undergone pancreatectomy (19 cases of pancreatoduodenectomy and 2 cases of total pancreatectomy), serum carnitine concentrations, fractions of carnitine, and hepatic attenuation on computed tomography images were analyzed with the aim of identifying risk factors for hepatic steatosis. Thirteen (61.9%) of the 21 patients were diagnosed as having hypocarnitinemia after pancreatectomy. Average hepatic attenuation was as low as 42.2HU (±21.3 SD). A high ratio of acyl/free carnitine was associated with less pronounced hepatic attenuation according to both univariate (P pancreatectomy in some patients. The statistical analyses suggest that a high ratio of acyl/free carnitine is an independent risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Integrated Foreign Exchange Risk Management: The Role of Import in Medium-Sized, Manufacturing Firms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

2010-01-01

Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as an instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role of impor...
An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

1987-01-01

In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeish, J.

2003-01-01

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document
A participatory approach for integrating risk assessment into rural decision-making: A case study in Santa Catarina, Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bacic, I.L.Z.; Bregt, A.K.; Rossiter, D.G.

2006-01-01

Incomplete information is one of the main constraints for decision-making, which are then by definition risky. In this study, formal risk concepts were introduced in decision-makers¿ meetings according to local demands and following a participatory approach, as a first step towards integrating risk
The role of risk assessment and safety analysis in integrated safety assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niall, R.; Hunt, M.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-01-01

To ensure that the design and operation of both nuclear and non- nuclear hazardous facilities is acceptable, and meets all societal safety expectations, a rigorous deterministic and probabilistic assessment is necessary. An approach is introduced, founded on the concept of an ''Integrated Safety Assessment.'' It merges the commonly performed safety and risk analyses and uses them in concert to provide decision makers with the necessary depth of understanding to achieve ''adequacy.'' 3 refs., 1 fig
Economic Impacts of Total Water Use Control in the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China—An Integrated CGE-BEM Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Na Li

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an integrated modeling approach combined with a top-down dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model and a bottom-up bio-economic model (BEM to study the economic impact of a total water use control policy in the Heihe river basin, northwestern China. The integrated CGE-BEM model is regionally disaggregated with a variety of crops and livestock, and includes the responses of farmers and consequent feedback effects in the regional economic system. The results show that under the total water use control scenario, the water use structure is changed and water use efficiency is improved. The total water use control policy has limited negative impact on the regional economic growth with only a slightly lower growth rate of 13.38% compared with a growth rate of 14% by 2020 under a business as usual water use scenario. However, the total water use control policy has significant negative impacts on several sectors, especially agriculture and food processing. It is expected cropping systems will change through a replacement of water-intensive crops with water-efficient crops. Farmers’ incomes will decrease by 3.14%. In order to alleviate farmers’ income loss and deal with water use conflicts across different sectors and regions, the promotion of migration of surplus labor from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and the improvement of water use efficiency in agriculture are needed.
Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

Science.gov (United States)

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.
Use of an integrated human health/ecological risk assessment to develop a long-term groundwater/site management plan for a sour gas facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swanson, S.M.; Shaw, R.D.; McClymont, G.; Nadeau, S.

1995-01-01

An integrated human health and ecological risk assessment was used to quantify the level of risk associated with the off-site movement of contaminants via groundwater and soils at a medium-sized gas processing facility in southern Alberta. The study incorporated three key aspects: (1) integration; (2) consultation; and, (3) pro-active remedial actions. Integration was complete, beginning with the Problem Formulation stage and progressing through Risk Characterization and Risk Management. This integration was reflected in a multidisciplinary team of hydrogeologists, biologists and human health specialists. Several lessons emerged from the integrated approach: (1) spending 2/3 of the time and resources on Problem Formulation prevented later problems; (2) the different perspectives provided by the various specialists helped reveal the relative importance of pathways and ecological receptors (3) clear, consistent screening procedures for contaminants of concern and receptors were very effective with stakeholders; (4) exposure scenarios that incorporated common-sense situations (although still conservative) contributed to the credibility of the risk analysis; and, (5) an innovative combination of toxicity testing and chemical analysis helped delineate the boundaries of the potentially contaminated area for both human and ecological receptors in a cost effective manner. Consultation included directly affected parties, regulatory personnel and community members. The consultation extended through the project, with key ''buy-in'' points during Problem Formulation and Risk Characterization/Management. Pro-active remedial action included the removal of contaminant sources in the 1980's, a pump-and-treat system and extensive monitoring. These actions showed commitment and set the stage for credible risk-based mitigation and long-term monitoring
Total quality in spent fuel pool reracking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cranston, J.S.; Bradbury, R.B.; Cacciapouti, R.J.

1993-01-01

The nuclear utility environment is one of strict cost control under prescriptive regulations and increasing public scrutiny. This paper presents the results of A Total Quality approach, by a dedicated team, that addresses the need for increased on-site spent fuel storage in this environment. Innovations to spent fuel pool reracking, driven by utilities' specific technical needs and shrinking budgets, have resulted in both product improvements and lower prices. A Total Quality approach to the entire turnkey project is taken, thereby creating synergism and process efficiency in each of the major phases of the project: design and analysis, licensing, fabrication, installation and disposal. Specific technical advances and the proven quality of the team members minimizes risk to the utility and its shareholders and provides a complete, cost effective service. Proper evaluation of spent fuel storage methods and vendors requires a full understanding of currently available customer driven initiatives that reduce cost while improving quality. In all phases of a spent fuel reracking project, from new rack design and analysis through old rack disposal, the integration of diverse experts, at all levels and throughout all phases of a reracking project, better serves utility needs. This Total Quality environment in conjunction with many technical improvements results in a higher quality product at a lower cost
Integrated Monitoring and Modeling of Carbon Dioxide Leakage Risk Using Remote Sensing, Ground-Based Monitoring, Atmospheric Models and Risk-Indexing Tools

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, E. A.; Pickles, W. L.; Gouveia, F. J.; Bogen, K. T.; Rau, G. H.; Friedmann, J.

2006-12-01

Correct assessment of the potential for CO2 leakage to the atmosphere or near surface is key to managing the risk associated with CO2 storage. Catastrophic, point-source leaks, diffuse seepage, and low leakage rates all merit assessment. Smaller leaks may be early warnings of catastrophic failures, and may be sufficient to damage natural vegetation or crops. Small leaks also may lead to cumulative build-up of lethal levels of CO2 in enclosed spaces, such as basements, groundwater-well head spaces, and caverns. Working with our ZERT partners, we are integrating a variety of monitoring and modeling approaches to understand how to assess potential health, property and environmental risks across this spectrum of leakage types. Remote sensing offers a rapid technique to monitor large areas for adverse environmental effects. If it can be deployed prior to the onset of storage operations, remote sensing also can document baseline conditions against which future claims of environmental damage can be compared. LLNL has been using hyperspectral imaging to detect plant stress associated with CO2 gas leakage, and has begun investigating use of NASA's new satellite or airborne instrumentation that directly measures gas compositions in the atmosphere. While remote sensing techniques have been criticized as lacking the necessary resolution to address environmental problems, new instruments and data processing techniques are demonstrated to resolve environmental changes at the scale associated with gas-leakage scenarios. During the shallow low-flow- CO2 release field experiments planned by ZERT, for the first time, we will have the opportunity to ground- truth hyperspectral data by simultaneous measurement of changes in hyperspectral readings, soil and root zone microbiology, ambient air, soil and aquifer CO2 concentrations. When monitoring data appear to indicate a CO2 leakage event, risk assessment and mitigation of that event requires a robust and nearly real-time method for
The state of the art in Japan's telecommunications energy systems - Strategy for Total Power Management -

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muroyama, Seiichi [NTT Power and Building Facilities Inc., Midori-cho, Musashino-shi, Tokyo (Japan)

2000-07-01

The ''strategy for total power management (STPM)'' was developed for managing problems in relation to energy for multimedia services in a comprehensive manner from the viewpoints of risk, cost, and environment. To provide integrated services based on STPM, a DC power supply system, a highly reliable UPS, and a co-generation system have been developed. (orig.)
Risk of pneumonia and urinary tract infection within the first week after total hip arthroplasty and the impact on survival

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glassou EN

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Eva N Glassou,1,2 Torben B Hansen,1,3 Alma B Pedersen2 1University Clinic of Hand, Hip and Knee Surgery, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Regional Hospital West Jutland, Aarhus University, 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, 3The Lundbeck Foundation Centre for Fast-track Hip and Knee Replacement, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Background: Pneumonia and urinary tract infections (UTIs increase morbidity and mortality. There is little epidemiological evidence from large population-based studies on risk factors for these infections and subsequent mortality in total hip arthroplasty (THA patients.Aim: To examine the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia and UTI after THA and their impact on survival.Patients and methods: We used the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register to identify THAs due to osteoarthritis registered from 2000 to 2013. We collected data about comorbidities, mortality and infections in relation to primary hospitalization and potential predictive variables from administrative databases. Regression models were used to estimate associations between potential risk factors and infection, and subsequently, between infection and mortality.Results: In total 84,812 THAs were included. The cumulative incidence of pneumonia and UTI within 7 days of the primary procedure were 0.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18–0.25 and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26–0.33, respectively. Patient-related risk factors for infection were being 80 years or older, gender and a comorbidity burden at time of surgery. The hazard ratio (HR of dying within 90 days of the primary THA was 10.67 (95% CI: 5.79–19.57 compared to patients without pneumonia. For patients with UTIs, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI: 0.41–6.59 compared to those without a UTI.Conclusion: Pneumonia was associated with an increased short-term risk of dying, despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and other potential confounders. Age, gender and comorbidity were the most
Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

2012-04-01

Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce
Integration of human reliability analysis into the probabilistic risk assessment process: phase 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, B.J.; Vickroy, S.C.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated a research program in 1984 to develop a testable set of analytical procedures for integrating human reliability analysis (HRA) into the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) process to more adequately assess the overall impact of human performance on risk. In this three phase program, stand-alone HRA/PRA analytic procedures will be developed and field evaluated to provide improved methods, techniques, and models for applying quantitative and qualitative human error data which systematically integrate HRA principles, techniques, and analyses throughout the entire PRA process. Phase 1 of the program involved analysis of state-of-the-art PRAs to define the structures and processes currently in use in the industry. Phase 2 research will involve developing a new or revised PRA methodology which will enable more efficient regulation of the industry using quantitative or qualitative results of the PRA. Finally, Phase 3 will be to field test those procedures to assure that the results generated by the new methodologies will be usable and acceptable to the NRC. This paper briefly describes the first phase of the program and outlines the second
Acetabular cup position and risk of dislocation in primary total hip arthroplasty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Seagrave, Kurt G; Troelsen, Anders; Malchau, Henrik

2017-01-01

Background and purpose - Hip dislocation is one of the most common complications following total hip arthroplasty (THA). Several factors that affect dislocation have been identified, including acetabular cup positioning. Optimal values for cup inclination and anteversion are debatable. We performed...... a systematic review to describe the different methods for measuring cup placement, target zones for cup positioning, and the association between cup positioning and dislocation following primary THA. Methods - A systematic search of literature in the PubMed database was performed (January and February 2016......) to identify articles that compared acetabular cup positioning and the risk of dislocation. Surgical approach and methods for measurement of cup angles were also considered. Results - 28 articles were determined to be relevant to our research question. Some articles demonstrated that cup positioning influenced...
Integrated urban flood risk assessment – adapting a multicriteria approach to a city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Kubal

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Flood risk assessment is an essential part of flood risk management. As part of the new EU flood directive it is becoming increasingly more popular in European flood policy. Particularly cities with a high concentration of people and goods are vulnerable to floods. This paper introduces the adaptation of a novel method of multicriteria flood risk assessment, that was recently developed for the more rural Mulde river basin, to a city. The study site is Leipzig, Germany. The "urban" approach includes a specific urban-type set of economic, social and ecological flood risk criteria, which focus on urban issues: population and vulnerable groups, differentiated residential land use classes, areas with social and health care but also ecological indicators such as recreational urban green spaces. These criteria are integrated using a "multicriteria decision rule" based on an additive weighting procedure which is implemented into the software tool FloodCalc urban. Based on different weighting sets we provide evidence of where the most flood-prone areas are located in a city. Furthermore, we can show that with an increasing inundation extent it is both the social and the economic risks that strongly increase.
Development of integrated parameter database for risk assessment at the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamauchi, Yoshikazu

2011-01-01

A study to develop a parameter database for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the application of risk information on plant operation and maintenance activity is important because the transparency, consistency, and traceability of parameters are needed to explanation adequacy of the evaluation to third parties. Application of risk information for the plant operation and maintenance activity, equipment reliability data, human error rate, and 5 factors of 'five-factor formula' for estimation of the amount of radioactive material discharge (source term) are key inputs. As a part of the infrastructure development for the risk information application, we developed the integrated parameter database, 'R-POD' (Rokkasho reprocessing Plant Omnibus parameter Database) on the trial basis for the PSA of the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant. This database consists primarily of the following 3 parts, 1) an equipment reliability database, 2) a five-factor formula database, and 3) a human reliability database. The underpinning for explaining the validity of the risk assessment can be improved by developing this database. Furthermore, this database is an important tool for the application of risk information, because it provides updated data by incorporating the accumulated operation experiences of the Rokkasho reprocessing plant. (author)
Severe Pulmonary Toxicity After Myeloablative Conditioning Using Total Body Irradiation: An Assessment of Risk Factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelsey, Chris R.; Horwitz, Mitchell E.; Chino, Junzo P.; Craciunescu, Oana; Steffey, Beverly; Folz, Rodney J.; Chao, Nelson J.; Rizzieri, David A.; Marks, Lawrence B.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To assess factors associated with severe pulmonary toxicity after myeloablative conditioning using total body irradiation (TBI) followed by allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Methods and Materials: A total of 101 adult patients who underwent TBI-based myeloablative conditioning for hematologic malignancies at Duke University between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. TBI was combined with high-dose cyclophosphamide, melphalan, fludarabine, or etoposide, depending on the underlying disease. Acute pulmonary toxicity, occurring within 90 days of transplantation, was scored using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Actuarial overall survival and the cumulative incidence of acute pulmonary toxicity were calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a log-rank test. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess factors independently associated with acute severe pulmonary toxicity. Results: The 90-day actuarial risk of developing severe (Grade 3-5) pulmonary toxicity was 33%. Actuarial survival at 90 days was 49% in patients with severe pulmonary toxicity vs. 94% in patients without (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the number of prior chemotherapy regimens was the only factor independently associated with development of severe pulmonary toxicity (odds ratio, 2.7 per regimen). Conclusions: Severe acute pulmonary toxicity is prevalent after TBI-based myeloablative conditioning regimens, occurring in approximately 33% of patients. The number of prior chemotherapy regimens appears to be an important risk factor.
Application of the integrated analysis of safety (ISA) to sequences of Total loss of feed water in a PWR Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreno Chamorro, P.; Gallego Diaz, C.

2011-01-01

The main objective of this work is to show the current status of the implementation of integrated analysis of safety (ISA) methodology and its SCAIS associated tool (system of simulation codes for ISA) to the sequence analysis of total loss of feedwater in a PWR reactor model Westinghouse of three loops with large, dry containment.
Risk factors for post-operative periprosthetic fractures following primary total hip arthroplasty with a proximally coated double-tapered cementless femoral component

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gromov, K; Bersang, A; Nielsen, C S

2017-01-01

ratio were recorded post-operatively. Periprosthetic fractures were identified and classified according to the Vancouver classification. Regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for early periprosthetic fracture. RESULTS: The mean follow-up was 713 days (1 to 2058). A total of 48......AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify patient- and surgery-related risk factors for sustaining an early periprosthetic fracture following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) performed using a double-tapered cementless femoral component (Bi-Metric femoral stem; Biomet Inc., Warsaw, Indiana...... periprosthetic fractures (3.0%) were identified during the follow-up and median time until fracture was 16 days, (interquartile range 10 to 31.5). Patients with femoral Dorr type C had a 5.2 times increased risk of post-operative periprosthetic fracture compared with type B, while female patients had a near...
Risk factors for early complications after laparoscopic total mesorectal excision for locally advanced rectal cancer: A single center experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liye Liu

2016-01-01

Conclusions: Aged patients, large tumor, lower tumor location and conversion were risk factors in performing laparoscopic TME for locally advanced rectal cancer. Patients with these characteristics should be carefully considered before undergoing laparoscopic total mesorectal excision.
Contract Design: Risk Management and Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Axel C. Mühlbacher

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Effective risk adjustment is an aspect that is more and more given weight on the background of competitive health insurance systems and vital healthcare systems. The risk structure of the providers plays a vital role in Pay for Performance. A prerequisite for optimal incentive-based service models is a (partial dependence of the agent’s returns on the provider’s gain level. Integrated care systems as well as accountable care organisations (ACOs in the US and similar concepts in other countries are advocated as an effective method of improving the performance of healthcare systems. These systems outline a payment and care delivery model that intends to tie provider reimbursements to predefined quality metrics. By this the total costs of care shall be reduced. Methods: Little is known about the contractual design and the main challenges of delegating “accountability” to these new kinds of organisations and/or contracts. The costs of market utilisation are highly relevant for the conception of healthcare contracts; furthermore information asymmetries and contract-specific investments are an obstacle to the efficient operation of ACOs. A comprehensive literature review on methods of designing contracts in Integrated Care was conducted. The research question in this article focuses on how reimbursement strategies, evaluation of measures and methods of risk adjustment can best be integrated in healthcare contracting. Results: Each integrated care contract includes challenges for both payers and providers without having sufficient empirical data on both sides. These challenges are clinical, administrative or financial nature. Risk adjusted contracts ensure that the reimbursement roughly matches the true costs resulting from the morbidity of a population. If reimbursement of care provider corresponds to the actual expenses for an individual/population the problem of risk selection is greatly reduced. The currently used methods

Red meat and poultry intakes and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: results from cohort studies of Chinese adults in Shanghai.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yumie Takata

Full Text Available Most previous studies of meat intake and total or cause-specific mortality were conducted in North America, whereas studies in other areas have been limited and reported inconsistent results. This study investigated the association of red meat or poultry intake with risk of total and cause-specific mortality, including cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD, in two large population-based prospective cohort studies of 134,290 Chinese adult women and men in Shanghai. Meat intakes were assessed through validated food frequency questionnaires administered in person at baseline. Vital status and dates and causes of deaths were ascertained through annual linkage to the Shanghai Vital Statistics Registry and Shanghai Cancer Registry databases and home visits every 2-3 years. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs for the risk of death associated with quintiles of meat intake. During 803,265 person-years of follow up for women and 334,281 person-years of follow up for men, a total of 4,210 deaths in women and 2,733 deaths in men accrued. The median intakes of red meat were 43 g/day among women and 54 g/day among men, and pork constituted at least 95% of total meat intake for both women and men. Red meat intake was associated with increased total mortality among men, but not among women; the HR (95% CI comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles were 1.18 (1.02-1.35 and 0.92 (0.82-1.03, respectively. This sex difference was statistically significant (P = 0.01. Red meat intake was associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.05-1.89 and with decreased risk of hemorrhagic stroke mortality (HR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.45-0.87. There were suggestive inverse associations of poultry intake with risk of total and all-CVD mortality among men, but not among women. Further investigations are needed to elucidate the sex-specific associations between red
Total site integration of light hydrocarbons separation process

OpenAIRE

Ulyev, L.; Vasilyev, M.; Maatouk, A.; Duic, Neven; Khusanovc, Alisher

2016-01-01

Ukraine is the largest consumer of hydrocarbons per unit of production in Europe (Ukraine policy review, 2006). The most important point is a reduction of energy consumption in chemical and metallurgical industries as a biggest consumer. This paper deals with energy savings potential of light hydrocarbons separation process. Energy consumption of light hydrocarbons separation process processes typical of Eastern European countries were analysed. Process Integration (PI) was used to perform a ...
Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...
Validation of the total dysphagia risk score (TDRS) in head and neck cancer patients in a conventional and a partially accelerated radiotherapy scheme

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nevens, Daan; Deschuymer, Sarah; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Daisne, Jean -Francois; Duprez, Frederic; De Neve, Wilfried; Nuyts, Sandra

Background and purpose: A risk model, the total dysphagia risk score (TDRS), was developed to predict which patients are most at risk to develop grade >= 2 dysphagia at 6 months following radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck cancer. The purpose of this study was to validate this model at 6 months and
Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches
Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

2013-01-01

Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498
Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willeit, Peter; Kaptoge, S; Welsh, P.

2016-01-01

samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes......BACKGROUND: Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present...... by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment. METHODS: In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored...
Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. McNeish

2003-12-08

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document.
A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Science.gov (United States)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.
Total Dietary Fiber, and Selected Vegetable, Fruit, Legume and Cereal Fiber Intake and Risk of Heart Attack in Periodontitis Subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson Wood

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Background: Epidemiological studies have found an association between periodontal disease and coronary artery disease(Arbes, Slade et al. 1999; Beck, Elter et al. 2001; Genco, Offenbacher et al. 2002, and have even implicated periodontal disease as a risk factor(Arbes, Slade et al. 1999; Beck, Elter et al. 2001, however have not proven causality(Hujoel, Drangholt et al. 2000. Although dietary amounts, sources, and types (soluble versus insoluble of fiber have been shown to reduce the risk of heart attack (Liu, Buring et al. 2002; Negri, Vecchia et al. 2003, this author is unaware of studies that have examined the association between food sources of dietary fiber and heart attack risk in subjects with periodontitis.This study was designed to determine whether total dietary fiber and fiber from different plant sources (vegetables, fruits, legumes, or cereals modified self-reported HA risk, as well as acute-phase inflammatory responses in subjects with periodontitis using NHANES III data.Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate the association between total dietary fiber intake levels, and selected vegetables, fruits, legumes, and cereal fiber intake and the risk of self-reported history of heart attack (HA in periodontitis subjects using data available in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III.Materials and Methods: Adult participants in NHANES III were used in this study. Zero to thirty three (0-33 percent of sites with periodontal attachment loss > 3 mm was considered a healthy periodontium, while greater than thirty three percent (>33 of sites with periodontal attachment loss of > 3 mm as periodontitis. The outcome variable was the self-reported history of HA. Total dietary fiber, and monthly selected vegetable, fruit, legume and cereal consumption were divided into low and adequate levels. Data was analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis, ANOVA and multivariate analyses using SPSS ®. P<0.05 was used to
Tuberculosis in Sheltered Homeless Population of Rome: An Integrated Model of Recruitment for Risk Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Laurenti

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The authors show the results of an integrated model for risk management of tuberculosis in a sample of sheltered homeless in Rome. Tuberculin skin test (TST was used for evaluating the prevalence of latent infection (LTBI. In TST positives, expectorate was collected and chest X-ray was achieved. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate determinants of infection. Out of 288 recruited subjects, 259 returned for the TST reading; 45.56% were positive and referred to a specialized center; 70 accessed the health facility and completed the clinical pathway. The risk factors associated to LTBI were male gender (OR=3.72, age over 60 years (OR=3.59, immigrant status (OR=3.73, and obesity (OR=2.19. This approach, based on an integrated social network, guarantees high adherence to screening (89.93%, allowing patients testing positive for latent tuberculosis infection to be diagnosed and rapidly referred to a specialized center.
Quantifying Blood Loss and Transfusion Risk After Primary vs Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Jared M; Webb, Matthew R; Klika, Alison K; Murray, Trevor G; Barsoum, Wael K; Higuera, Carlos A

2017-06-01

Primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and conversion THA may result in substantial blood loss, sometimes necessitating transfusion. Despite the complexities of the latter, both are grouped in the same category for quality assessment and reimbursement. This study's purpose was to compare both blood loss and transfusion risk in primary and conversion THA and identify their associated predictors. A total of 1616 patients who underwent primary and conversion THA at a single hospital from 2009-2013 were reviewed (primary THA = 1575; conversion THA = 41). Demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative data were collected from electronic records. Blood loss was calculated using a validated method. Transfusion triggers were based on standardized criteria. Separate multivariable regression models for blood loss and transfusion were performed. Conversion THA patients were younger (P = .002), had lower age-adjusted Charlson scores (P = .006), longer surgeries (P quantified in the present study and showed consistent results between the 2 metrics. The differences between these procedures should be addressed during quality assurance because conversion THA is associated with higher resource utilization, which is important in the allocation of resources and tiered reimbursement strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Totally implantable central venous access port infections in patients with digestive cancer: incidence and risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Touré, Abdoulaye; Vanhems, Philippe; Lombard-Bohas, Catherine; Cassier, Philippe; Péré-Vergé, Denis; Souquet, Jean-Christophe; Ecochard, René; Chambrier, Cécile

2012-12-01

Central venous access port-related bloodstream infection (CVAP-BSI) is associated with morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. This study examined the incidence rates and risk factors for CVAP-BSI in adult patients with digestive cancer. This prospective observational cohort study was performed from 2007 to 2011 in 2 oncology units of a university hospital. Incidence rate was expressed as number of CVAP-BSI per 1,000 catheter-days. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors for CVAP-BSI. A total of 315 patients were included. CVAP-BSI occurred in 41 patients (13.0%). The overall incidence rate was 0.76/1,000 catheter-days. The rate was higher in patients with esophageal cancer (1.28. P = .05) and pancreatic cancer (1.24; P = .007). Risk factors independently associated with CVAP-BSI were World Health Organization performance status between 2 and 4, catheter utilization-days in the previous month, pancreatic cancer, and parenteral nutrition. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci and enterobacteria were the main microorganisms isolated. In adult patients with digestive cancer, pancreatic cancer, cumulative catheter utilization-days, World Health Organization performance status, and parenteral nutrition were identified as independent risk factors for CVAP-BSI. Patients with any of these risk factors could be candidates for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Peter; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Ilbery, Brian; Jeger, Mike; Jones, Glyn; Little, Ruth; MacLeod, Alan; Parker, Steve; Pautasso, Marco; Pietravalle, Stephane; Maye, Damian

2011-01-01

Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions. PMID:21624923
Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.
Proposal for an integrated risk informed decision making process for German regulators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Einarsson, Svante; Wielenberg, Andreas

2013-01-01

Regulatory decisions for German nuclear power plants (NPP) have traditionally been based on deterministic safety analyses. However, the IRRS-Mission of IAEA in 2008 proposed, among others, in 'Suggestion 25' to develop a national policy 'on the use of risk insights in the regulatory framework and decision making'. Consequently, the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) launched a project with the goal of developing a proposal for a uniform federal approach on using risk information in decision making. To this end, the state of the application of probabilistic and risk informed methods has been investigated both on an international and a national level. On the international level, the concept of Integrated Risk Informed Decision Making (IRIDM) has been defined in INSAG-25. It is a structured process, in which all knowledge and requirements relevant to the issue in question are to be considered in a decision. Such knowledge and other requirements are e.g. deterministic and probabilistic safety analyses, regulatory requirements and other applicable findings (including cost-benefit analyses). The IRIDM concept according to INSAG-25 is the cornerstone of the proposal for a uniform federal German approach for IRIDM in the regulatory framework for nuclear installations in Germany. (orig.)
Total body irradiation: current indications; L`irradiation corporelle totale: les indications actuelles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.; Danhier, S.; Dubray, B.; Cosset, J.M. [Institut Curie, 75 - Paris (France)

1998-05-01

The choice of dose and fractionation for total body irradiation is made difficult by the large number of considerations to be taken into account. The outcome of bone marrow transplantation after total body irradiation can be understood in terms of tumor cell killing, engraftment, and normal tissue damage, each of these endpoints being influenced by irradiation-, disease-, transplant-, and patient- related factors. Interpretation of clinical data is further hampered by the overwhelming influence of logistic constraints, the small numbers of randomized studies, and the concomitant variations in total dose and fraction size or dose rate. So far, three cautious conclusions can be drawn in order to tentatively adapt the total body irradiation schedule to clinically-relevant situations. Firstly, the organs at risk for normal tissue damage (lung, liver, lens, kidney) are protected by delivering small doses per fraction at low dose rate. This suggests that, when toxicity is at stake (e.g. in children), fractionated irradiation should be preferred, provided that inter-fraction intervals are long enough. Secondly, fractionated irradiation should be avoided in case of T-cell depleted transplant, given the high risk of graft rejection in this setting. An alternative would be to increase total (or fractional) dose of fractionated total body irradiation, but this approach is likely to induce more normal tissue toxicity. Thirdly, clinical data have shown higher relapse rates in chronic myeloid leukemia after fractionated or low dose rate total body irradiation, suggesting that fractionated irradiation should not be recommended, unless total (or fractional) dose is increased. Total body irradiation-containing regimens, primarily cyclophosphamide / total body irradiation, are either equivalent to or better than the chemotherapy-only regimens, primarily busulfan / cyclophosphamide. Busulfan / cyclophosphamide certainly represents a reasonable alternative, especially in patients who
Total sitting time, leisure time physical activity and risk of hospitalization due to low back pain: The Danish Health Examination Survey cohort 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Balling, Mie; Holmberg, Teresa; Petersen, Christina B; Aadahl, Mette; Meyrowitsch, Dan W; Tolstrup, Janne S

2018-02-01

This study aimed to test the hypotheses that a high total sitting time and vigorous physical activity in leisure time increase the risk of low back pain and herniated lumbar disc disease. A total of 76,438 adults answered questions regarding their total sitting time and physical activity during leisure time in the Danish Health Examination Survey 2007-2008. Information on low back pain diagnoses up to 10 September 2015 was obtained from The National Patient Register. The mean follow-up time was 7.4 years. Data were analysed using Cox regression analysis with adjustment for potential confounders. Multiple imputations were performed for missing values. During the follow-up period, 1796 individuals were diagnosed with low back pain, of whom 479 were diagnosed with herniated lumbar disc disease. Total sitting time was not associated with low back pain or herniated lumbar disc disease. However, moderate or vigorous physical activity, as compared to light physical activity, was associated with increased risk of low back pain (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30 and HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83). Moderate, but not vigorous physical activity was associated with increased risk of herniated lumbar disc disease. The results suggest that total sitting time is not associated with low back pain, but moderate and vigorous physical activity is associated with increased risk of low back pain compared with light physical activity.
Integrating Social Services and Home-Based Primary Care for High-Risk Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Feinglass, Joe; Norman, Greg; Golden, Robyn L; Muramatsu, Naoko; Gelder, Michael; Cornwell, Thomas

2018-04-01

There is a consensus that our current hospital-intensive approach to care is deeply flawed. This review article describes the research evidence for developing a better system of care for high-cost, high-risk patients. It reviews the evidence that home-centered care and integration of health care with social services are the cornerstones of a more humane and efficient system. The article describes the strengths and weaknesses of research evaluating the effects of social services in addressing social determinants of health, and how social support is critical to successful acute care transition programs. It reviews the history of incorporating social services into care management, and the prospects that recent payment reforms and regulatory initiatives can succeed in stimulating the financial integration of social services into new care coordination initiatives. The article reviews the literature on home-based primary care for the chronically ill and disabled, and suggests that it is the emergence of this care modality that holds the greatest promise for delivery system reform. In the hope of stimulating further discussion and debate, the authors summarize existing viewpoints on how a home-centered system, which integrates social and medical services, might emerge in the next few years.
Integral elastic, electronic-state, ionization, and total cross sections for electron scattering with furfural

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, D. B.; da Costa, R. F.; Varella, M. T. do N.; Bettega, M. H. F.; Lima, M. A. P.; Blanco, F.; García, G.; Brunger, M. J.

2016-04-01

We report absolute experimental integral cross sections (ICSs) for electron impact excitation of bands of electronic-states in furfural, for incident electron energies in the range 20-250 eV. Wherever possible, those results are compared to corresponding excitation cross sections in the structurally similar species furan, as previously reported by da Costa et al. [Phys. Rev. A 85, 062706 (2012)] and Regeta and Allan [Phys. Rev. A 91, 012707 (2015)]. Generally, very good agreement is found. In addition, ICSs calculated with our independent atom model (IAM) with screening corrected additivity rule (SCAR) formalism, extended to account for interference (I) terms that arise due to the multi-centre nature of the scattering problem, are also reported. The sum of those ICSs gives the IAM-SCAR+I total cross section for electron-furfural scattering. Where possible, those calculated IAM-SCAR+I ICS results are compared against corresponding results from the present measurements with an acceptable level of accord being obtained. Similarly, but only for the band I and band II excited electronic states, we also present results from our Schwinger multichannel method with pseudopotentials calculations. Those results are found to be in good qualitative accord with the present experimental ICSs. Finally, with a view to assembling a complete cross section data base for furfural, some binary-encounter-Bethe-level total ionization cross sections for this collision system are presented.

Integral elastic, electronic-state, ionization, and total cross sections for electron scattering with furfural

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, D. B. [School of Chemical and Physical Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, South Australia 5001 (Australia); Costa, R. F. da [Instituto de Física “Gleb Wataghin,” Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 13083-859 São Paulo (Brazil); Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 29075-910, Vitória, Espírito Santo (Brazil); Varella, M. T. do N. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, CP 66318, 05315-970 São Paulo (Brazil); Bettega, M. H. F. [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Paraná, CP 19044, 81531-990 Curitiba, Paraná (Brazil); Lima, M. A. P. [Instituto de Física “Gleb Wataghin,” Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 13083-859 São Paulo (Brazil); Blanco, F. [Departamento de Física Atómica, Molecular y Nuclear, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid E-28040 (Spain); García, G. [Instituto de Física Fundamental, CSIC, Serrano 113-bis, 28006 Madrid (Spain); Brunger, M. J., E-mail: Michael.Brunger@flinders.edu.au [School of Chemical and Physical Sciences, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, South Australia 5001 (Australia); Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2016-04-14

We report absolute experimental integral cross sections (ICSs) for electron impact excitation of bands of electronic-states in furfural, for incident electron energies in the range 20–250 eV. Wherever possible, those results are compared to corresponding excitation cross sections in the structurally similar species furan, as previously reported by da Costa et al. [Phys. Rev. A 85, 062706 (2012)] and Regeta and Allan [Phys. Rev. A 91, 012707 (2015)]. Generally, very good agreement is found. In addition, ICSs calculated with our independent atom model (IAM) with screening corrected additivity rule (SCAR) formalism, extended to account for interference (I) terms that arise due to the multi-centre nature of the scattering problem, are also reported. The sum of those ICSs gives the IAM-SCAR+I total cross section for electron–furfural scattering. Where possible, those calculated IAM-SCAR+I ICS results are compared against corresponding results from the present measurements with an acceptable level of accord being obtained. Similarly, but only for the band I and band II excited electronic states, we also present results from our Schwinger multichannel method with pseudopotentials calculations. Those results are found to be in good qualitative accord with the present experimental ICSs. Finally, with a view to assembling a complete cross section data base for furfural, some binary-encounter-Bethe-level total ionization cross sections for this collision system are presented.
Integral elastic, electronic-state, ionization, and total cross sections for electron scattering with furfural

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D. B.; Costa, R. F. da; Varella, M. T. do N.; Bettega, M. H. F.; Lima, M. A. P.; Blanco, F.; García, G.; Brunger, M. J.

2016-01-01

We report absolute experimental integral cross sections (ICSs) for electron impact excitation of bands of electronic-states in furfural, for incident electron energies in the range 20–250 eV. Wherever possible, those results are compared to corresponding excitation cross sections in the structurally similar species furan, as previously reported by da Costa et al. [Phys. Rev. A 85, 062706 (2012)] and Regeta and Allan [Phys. Rev. A 91, 012707 (2015)]. Generally, very good agreement is found. In addition, ICSs calculated with our independent atom model (IAM) with screening corrected additivity rule (SCAR) formalism, extended to account for interference (I) terms that arise due to the multi-centre nature of the scattering problem, are also reported. The sum of those ICSs gives the IAM-SCAR+I total cross section for electron–furfural scattering. Where possible, those calculated IAM-SCAR+I ICS results are compared against corresponding results from the present measurements with an acceptable level of accord being obtained. Similarly, but only for the band I and band II excited electronic states, we also present results from our Schwinger multichannel method with pseudopotentials calculations. Those results are found to be in good qualitative accord with the present experimental ICSs. Finally, with a view to assembling a complete cross section data base for furfural, some binary-encounter-Bethe-level total ionization cross sections for this collision system are presented.
Integrating emerging earth science technologies into disaster risk management: an enterprise architecture approach

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, J. D.; Hao, W.; Chettri, S. R.

2014-12-01

Disaster risk management has grown to rely on earth observations, multi-source data analysis, numerical modeling, and interagency information sharing. The practice and outcomes of disaster risk management will likely undergo further change as several emerging earth science technologies come of age: mobile devices; location-based services; ubiquitous sensors; drones; small satellites; satellite direct readout; Big Data analytics; cloud computing; Web services for predictive modeling, semantic reconciliation, and collaboration; and many others. Integrating these new technologies well requires developing and adapting them to meet current needs; but also rethinking current practice to draw on new capabilities to reach additional objectives. This requires a holistic view of the disaster risk management enterprise and of the analytical or operational capabilities afforded by these technologies. One helpful tool for this assessment, the GEOSS Architecture for the Use of Remote Sensing Products in Disaster Management and Risk Assessment (Evans & Moe, 2013), considers all phases of the disaster risk management lifecycle for a comprehensive set of natural hazard types, and outlines common clusters of activities and their use of information and computation resources. We are using these architectural views, together with insights from current practice, to highlight effective, interrelated roles for emerging earth science technologies in disaster risk management. These roles may be helpful in creating roadmaps for research and development investment at national and international levels.
Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.
Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk
Image-guided total marrow and total lymphatic irradiation using helical tomotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultheiss, Timothy E.; Wong, Jeffrey; Liu, An; Olivera, Gustavo; Somlo, George

2007-01-01

Purpose: To develop a treatment technique to spare normal tissue and allow dose escalation in total body irradiation (TBI). We have developed intensity-modulated radiotherapy techniques for the total marrow irradiation (TMI), total lymphatic irradiation, or total bone marrow plus lymphatic irradiation using helical tomotherapy. Methods and Materials: For TBI, we typically use 12 Gy in 10 fractions delivered at an extended source-to-surface distance (SSD). Using helical tomotherapy, it is possible to deliver equally effective doses to the bone marrow and lymphatics while sparing normal organs to a significant degree. In the TMI patients, whole body skeletal bone, including the ribs and sternum, comprise the treatment target. In the total lymphatic irradiation, the target is expanded to include the spleen and major lymph node areas. Sanctuary sites for disease (brain and testes) are included when clinically indicated. Spared organs include the lungs, esophagus, parotid glands, eyes, oral cavity, liver, kidneys, stomach, small and large intestine, bladder, and ovaries. Results: With TBI, all normal organs received the TBI dose; with TMI, total lymphatic irradiation, and total bone marrow plus lymphatic irradiation, the visceral organs are spared. For the first 6 patients treated with TMI, the median dose to organs at risk averaged 51% lower than would be achieved with TBI. By putting greater weight on the avoidance of specific organs, greater sparing was possible. Conclusion: Sparing of normal tissues and dose escalation is possible using helical tomotherapy. Late effects such as radiation pneumonitis, veno-occlusive disease, cataracts, neurocognitive effects, and the development of second tumors should be diminished in severity and frequency according to the dose reduction realized for the organs at risk
Cross-sectional associations of total sitting and leisure screen time with cardiometabolic risk in adults. Results from the HUNT Study, Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Chau, Josephine Y; Grunseit, Anne; Midthjell, Kristian; Holmen, Jostein; Holmen, Turid L; Bauman, Adrian E; van der Ploeg, Hidde P

2014-01-01

To examine associations of total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use with cardiometabolic risk biomarkers in adults. Population based cross-sectional study. Waist circumference, BMI, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, non-fasting glucose, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) and triglycerides were measured in 48,882 adults aged 20 years or older from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 2006-2008 (HUNT3). Adjusted multiple regression models were used to test for associations between these biomarkers and self-reported total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use in the whole sample and by cardiometabolic disease status sub-groups. In the whole sample, reporting total sitting time ≥10 h/day was associated with poorer BMI, waist circumference, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, non-fasting glucose, GGT and triglyceride levels compared to those reporting total sitting time Leisure-time computer use ≥1 h/day was associated with poorer BMI, total cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, GGT and triglycerides compared with those reporting no leisure-time computing. Sub-group analyses by cardiometabolic disease status showed similar patterns in participants free of cardiometabolic disease, while similar albeit non-significant patterns were observed in those with cardiometabolic disease. Total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use are associated with poorer cardiometabolic risk profiles in adults. Reducing sedentary behaviour throughout the day and limiting TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use may have health benefits. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Escuder-Bueno

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009–2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative. First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.
An Integrated Simulation, Inference and Optimization Approach for Groundwater Remediation with Two-stage Health-Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aili Yang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, an integrated simulation, inference and optimization approach with two-stage health risk assessment (i.e., ISIO-THRA is developed for supporting groundwater remediation for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Both environmental standards and health risk are considered as the constraints in the ISIO-THRA model. The health risk includes two parts: (1 the health risk during the remediation process and (2 the health risk in the natural attenuation period after remediation. In the ISIO-THRA framework, the relationship between contaminant concentrations and time is expressed through first-order decay models. The results demonstrate that: (1 stricter environmental standards and health risk would require larger pumping rates for the same remediation duration; (2 higher health risk may happen in the period of the remediation process; (3 for the same environmental standard and acceptable health-risk level, the remediation techniques that take the shortest time would be chosen. ISIO-THRA can help to systematically analyze interaction among contaminant transport, remediation duration, and environmental and health concerns, and further provide useful supportive information for decision makers.
Total integrated performance excellence system (TIPES): A true north direction for a clinical trial support center.

Science.gov (United States)

Sather, Mike R; Parsons, Sherry; Boardman, Kathy D; Warren, Stuart R; Davis-Karim, Anne; Griffin, Kevin; Betterton, Jane A; Jones, Mark S; Johnson, Stanley H; Vertrees, Julia E; Hickey, Jan H; Salazar, Thelma P; Huang, Grant D

2018-03-01

This paper presents the quality journey taken by a Federal organization over more than 20 years. These efforts have resulted in the implementation of a Total Integrated Performance Excellence System (TIPES) that combines key principles and practices of established quality systems. The Center has progressively integrated quality system frameworks including the Malcom Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA) Framework and Criteria for Performance Excellence, ISO 9001, and the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3), as well as supplemental quality systems of ISO 15378 (packaging for medicinal products) and ISO 21500 (guide to project management) to systematically improve all areas of operations. These frameworks were selected for applicability to Center processes and systems, consistency and reinforcement of complimentary approaches, and international acceptance. External validations include the MBNQA, the highest quality award in the US, continued registration and conformance to ISO standards and guidelines, and multiple VA and state awards. With a focus on a holistic approach to quality involving processes, systems and personnel, this paper presents activities and lessons that were critical to building TIPES and establishing the quality environment for conducting clinical research in support of Veterans and national health care.
Total integrated performance excellence system (TIPES: A true north direction for a clinical trial support center

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike R. Sather

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the quality journey taken by a Federal organization over more than 20 years. These efforts have resulted in the implementation of a Total Integrated Performance Excellence System (TIPES that combines key principles and practices of established quality systems. The Center has progressively integrated quality system frameworks including the Malcom Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA Framework and Criteria for Performance Excellence, ISO 9001, and the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3, as well as supplemental quality systems of ISO 15378 (packaging for medicinal products and ISO 21500 (guide to project management to systematically improve all areas of operations. These frameworks were selected for applicability to Center processes and systems, consistency and reinforcement of complimentary approaches, and international acceptance. External validations include the MBNQA, the highest quality award in the US, continued registration and conformance to ISO standards and guidelines, and multiple VA and state awards. With a focus on a holistic approach to quality involving processes, systems and personnel, this paper presents activities and lessons that were critical to building TIPES and establishing the quality environment for conducting clinical research in support of Veterans and national health care.
White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more
Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burns LC

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant
Pipeline integrity handbook risk management and evaluation

CERN Document Server

Singh, Ramesh

2013-01-01

Based on over 40 years of experience in the field, Ramesh Singh goes beyond corrosion control, providing techniques for addressing present and future integrity issues. Pipeline Integrity Handbook provides pipeline engineers with the tools to evaluate and inspect pipelines, safeguard the life cycle of their pipeline asset and ensure that they are optimizing delivery and capability. Presented in easy-to-use, step-by-step order, Pipeline Integrity Handbook is a quick reference for day-to-day use in identifying key pipeline degradation mechanisms and threats to pipeline integrity. The book begins
Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.
Predictors of revision, prosthetic joint infection and mortality following total hip or total knee arthroplasty in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cordtz, Rene Lindholm; Zobbe, Kristian; Højgaard, Pil

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To investigate predictors of 10-year risk of revision and 1-year risk of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) and death following total hip/total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) in (1) patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with patients with osteoarthritis (OA); and (2) patients...
Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-04-15

Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require
Risk analysis associated with petroleum hydrocarbons: is everything running smoothly?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morin, D.

1999-01-01

Petroleum products represent one of the main sources of environmental contamination, and these products are complex, composed of several hundred individual hydrocarbons. The evaluation of the risks associated with petroleum products is often limited by certain specific parameters such as benzene. The petroleum hydrocarbons running from C(10) to C(50) are not often integrated in an analysis of the toxological risks since the toxological characterization of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons is difficult to carry out. There exist in the United States two approaches that were developed recently that allow the integration of various hydrocarbons comprising a mixture. In this presentation, two of these approaches are described and compared. An overview of these approaches related to Canadian regulatory bodies is included, and a case study completes the account. The two approaches that are most well known in this area are: 1) that of the Massachusetts Dept. of Environmental Protection, and 2) that of the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group. The integration of petroleum hydrocarbons in a quantitative evaluation of their toxological risk is possible by present methods. This integration allows a reduction in the uncertainty associated with the use of an integrating parameter in the case of these petroleum hydrocarbons in the C(10) to the C(50) range
Applying risk insights in US NRC reviews of integral pressurized water reactor designs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caruso, M.A.; Hilsmeier, T.; Kevern, T.A.

2012-01-01

In its Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) on COMGBJ-10-0004/COMGEA-10-0001, 'Use of Risk Insights to Enhance Safety Focus of Small Modular Reactor Reviews,' dated August 31, 2010 (ML102510405), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) directed the NRC staff to more fully integrate the use of risk insights into pre-application activities and the review of small modular reactor (SMR) applications with near-term focus on integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) designs. The Commission's objective is to align the review focus and resources with the risk-significant systems, structures, and components (SSCs) and other aspects of the design, that contribute most to safety in order to enhance the efficiency of the review process while still enabling a decision of reasonable assurance of the design's safety. The staff was directed to develop a design-specific, risk-informed review plan for each SMR to address pre-application and application review activities. The NRC staff submitted a response to the Commission which describes its approach for (1) using risk insights, consistent with current regulatory requirements, to assign SSCs to one of a limited set of graded categories, and (2) adjusting the scope and depth of current review plans--where possible--consistent with regulatory requirements and consistent with the applicable graded category. Because the staff's review constitutes an independent audit of the application, the staff may emphasize or de-emphasize particular aspects of its review guidance (i.e., Standard Review Plan), as appropriate and consistent with regulatory requirements, for the application being reviewed. The staff may propose justifications for not performing certain sections of the reviews called for by the applicable review plan. Examples of acceptable variations in the scope of a review can include reduced emphasis on SSC attributes such as reliability, availability, or functional performance when the SSC will be in the scope of a program
A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

An Integrated Risk Framework for Gigawatt-scale Deployments of Renewable Energy: The U.S. Wind Energy Case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ram, B. [Energetics, Inc., Columbia, MD (United States)

2010-04-01

Assessing the potential environmental and human effects of deploying renewable wind energy requires a new way of evaluating potential environmental and human impacts. This paper explores an integrated risk framework for renewable wind energy siting decisionmaking.
An overview of the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsson, Carl-Magnus

2008-01-01

The ERICA project (environmental risks from ionising contaminants: assessment and management, EC contract no. FI6R-CT-2004-508847) concluded with the publication of two main outputs: the ERICA Integrated Approach to the assessment and management of environmental risks from ionising radiation, of which also introduces the user to the second main output, the ERICA Tool, which is a software programme with supporting databases, that together with its associated help will guide users through the assessment process. More than 60 European scientists contributed to the ERICA Integrated Approach. In addition, a large number of experts, policy makers, and decision-makers in different areas have contributed views on the ERICA Integrated Approach and its associated Tool from the user's perspective, through participation in the End-Users Group set up under the ERICA project. Databases on transfer, dose conversion coefficients and radiation effects on biota have been developed specifically for the purpose of the Integrated Approach, and incorporated into, or interacting with, the Tool. Species sensitivity distributions of biological effects data have been performed and did not reveal, for chronic exposure, any statistical grounds for separation between terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in terms of species sensitivity to radiation; on the basis of such analysis a universal screening dose rate criterion of 10 μGy h -1 incremental dose rate is suggested for exiting the assessment procedure while being confident that environmental risks are negligible. This criterion is used for the two first tiers (conservative assessment with limited data requirement and various possibilities of incorporating user-defined parameter values, including the screening dose rate criterion) of the assessment methodology. Exposure situations of concern are carried through a third tier, making use of all relevant databases and with a number of issues and options listed to support and guide
Integrated drought risk assessment of multi-hazard-affected bodies based on copulas in the Taoerhe Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua

2018-02-01

Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.
Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

2015-10-01

Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.
Risk Assessment of Structural Integrity of Transportation Casks after Extended Storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibarra, Luis; Medina, Ricardo; Yang, Haori

2018-03-23

This study assessed the risk of loss of structural integrity of transportation casks and fuel cladding after extended storage. Although it is known that fuel rods discharged from NPPs have a small percentage of rod cladding defects, the behavior of fuel cladding and the structural elements of assemblies during transportation after long-term storage is not well understood. If the fuel degrades during extended storage, it could be susceptible to damage from vibration and impact loads during transport operations, releasing fission-product gases into the canister or the cask interior (NWTRB 2010). Degradation of cladding may occur due to mechanisms associated with hydrogen embrittlement, delayed hydride cracking, low temperature creep, and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) that may affect fuel cladding and canister components after extended storage of hundreds of years. Over extended periods at low temperatures, these mechanisms affect the ductility, strength, and fracture toughness of the fuel cladding, which becomes brittle. For transportation purposes, the fuel may be transferred from storage to shipping casks, or dual-purpose casks may be used for storage and transportation. Currently, most of the transportation casks will be the former case. A risk assessment evaluation is conducted based on results from experimental tests and simulations with advanced numerical models. A novel contribution of this study is the evaluation of the combined effect of component aging and vibration/impact loads in transportation scenarios. The expected levels of deterioration will be obtained from previous and current studies on the effect of aging on fuel and cask components. The emphasis of the study is placed on the structural integrity of fuel cladding and canisters.
Analysis frame of integrity risk management：theory, process and mechanism%廉政风险管理的分析框架：理论、过程和机制

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

庄德水

2011-01-01

With the arrival of Risk Society, integrity risk management becomes the essential way to build a clean government and struggle against corruption. Appling risk-management theory and method to anti-corruption, integrity risk management help relieve integrity risks and improve the ability to cope with integrity risks. Integrity risk management is a dynamic process composed of risk identification, risk appraisal, risk treatment and risk man- agement performance evaluation. The focal point of strengthening integrity risk management is to construct the mechanisms of risk analysis, risk early-warning, risk prevention, risk replying, and risk communication.%随着“风险社会”的来临，推进廉政风险管理成为新时期加强反腐倡廉建设的重要内容。廉政风险管理是风险管理理论和方法在反腐败工作领域的实际应用，有利于化解廉政风险，提升政府应对廉政风险的能力。廉政风险管理是一个动态过程，由廉政风险识别、廉政风险评估、廉政风险处理和廉政风险管理绩效评估等阶段组成。当前，推进廉政风险管理要重点构建风险分析机制、风险预警机制、风险防范机制、风险应对机制和风险沟通机制。
Total Effective Xenoestrogen Burden in Serum Samples and Risk for Breast Cancer in a Population-Based Multicase–Control Study in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Fernández, Mariana F.; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Whelan, Denis; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Llorca, Javier; Villanueva, Cristina M.; Guevara, Marcela; Molina-Molina, José-Manuel; Artacho-Cordón, Francisco; Barriuso-Lapresa, Laura; Tusquets, Ignasi; Dierssen-Sotos, Trinidad; Aragonés, Nuria; Olea, Nicolás; Kogevinas, Manolis; Pollán, Marina

2016-01-01

Background: Most studies on endocrine-disrupting chemicals and breast cancer have focused on single compounds and have produced inconclusive findings. Objectives: We assessed the combined estrogenic effects of mixtures of xenoestrogens in serum and their relationship to breast cancer risk. Methods: A total of 186 incident pretreatment breast cancer cases and 196 frequency-matched controls were randomly sampled from a large population-based multicase–control study in Spain. The total effective xenoestrogen burden attributable to organohalogenated xenoestrogens (TEXB-α) and endogenous hormones and more polar xenoestrogens (TEXB-β) was determined in serum samples using high-performance liquid chromatography and E-Screen bioassay. Odds ratios for breast cancer comparing tertiles of serum TEXB-α and TEXB-β were estimated using logistic models, and smooth risk trends were obtained using spline models. Results: Cases had higher geometric mean TEXB-α and TEXB-β levels (8.32 and 9.94 Eeq pM/mL, respectively) than controls (2.99 and 5.96 Eeq pM/mL, respectively). The fully adjusted odds ratios for breast cancer (95% confidence intervals) comparing the second and third tertiles of TEXB-α with the first tertile were 1.77 (0.76, 4.10) and 3.45 (1.50, 7.97), respectively, and those for TEXB-β were 2.35 (1.10, 5.03) and 4.01 (1.88, 8.56), respectively. A steady increase in risk was evident across all detected TEXB-α levels and a sigmoidal trend was observed for TEXB-β. Individual xenoestrogens showed weak and opposing associations with breast cancer risk. Conclusions: This is the first study to show a strong positive association between serum total xenoestrogen burden and breast cancer risk, highlighting the importance of evaluating xenoestrogen mixtures, rather than single compounds, when studying hormone-related cancers. Citation: Pastor-Barriuso R, Fernández MF, Castaño-Vinyals G, Whelan D, Pérez-Gómez B, Llorca J, Villanueva CM, Guevara M, Molina-Molina JM
Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...
Employee satisfaction: an integral component of total quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Gvazdinskas, L C; Maffetone, M A

1995-01-01

As part of the Total Quality Management process, the leadership of Rush Medical Laboratories, with a staff of 400, made an initial commitment to focus on their own employees as the most important customers. Only after the employees' development, their help, their support, and their empowerment could Rush Medical Laboratories make the improvements in customer relationships and obtain the operations improvement, cost savings, and productivity necessary to maintain a competitive edge. This article outlines the numerous employee initiatives that have resulted from this commitment. All of these initiatives were successful at some point during the 5 or more years since the incorporation of TQM within Rush Medical Laboratories. In the spirit of continuous improvement, some have been modified or discontinued and replaced by others. This article provides an overview of the many improvements that are possible when employees are provided a forum in which to voice their needs, and it challenges the management and employees of all laboratories to focus on this vital component of total quality.
Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)
Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.
Enterprise risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eaton, C. [Enbridge, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2015-07-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is a relative new, holistic and strategic approach for managing risks in modern organizations. ERM builds on and extends traditional risk management (RM). Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives - positive and/or negative. Risk management is a set of practices used to understand and address risk. ERM is a form of RM that emphasizes risk aggregation and integration. Risk aggregation is combining individual risks into categories ({sup r}olled up{sup )}. risk integration is embedding RM into organizational contexts ({sup b}uilt in{sup )}.
Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data
Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Total Product Life Cycle (TPLC) database integrates premarket and postmarket data about medical devices. It includes information pulled from CDRH databases...
Identifying and assessing the risk of opioid abuse in patients with cancer: an integrative review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmichael AN

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Ashley-Nicole Carmichael,1 Laura Morgan,1 Egidio Del Fabbro2 1School of Pharmacy, 2Division of Hematology, Oncology, and Palliative Care, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA Background: The misuse and abuse of opioid medications in many developed nations is a health crisis, leading to increased health-system utilization, emergency department visits, and overdose deaths. There are also increasing concerns about opioid abuse and diversion in patients with cancer, even at the end of life. Aims: To evaluate the current literature on opioid misuse and abuse, and more specifically the identification and assessment of opioid-abuse risk in patients with cancer. Our secondary aim is to offer the most current evidence of best clinical practice and suggest future directions for research. Materials and methods: Our integrative review included a literature search using the key terms “identification and assessment of opioid abuse in cancer”, “advanced cancer and opioid abuse”, “hospice and opioid abuse”, and “palliative care and opioid abuse”. PubMed, PsycInfo, and Embase were supplemented by a manual search. Results: We found 691 articles and eliminated 657, because they were predominantly noncancer populations or specifically excluded cancer patients. A total of 34 articles met our criteria, including case studies, case series, retrospective observational studies, and narrative reviews. The studies were categorized into screening questionnaires for opioid abuse or alcohol, urine drug screens to identify opioid misuse or abuse, prescription drug-monitoring programs, and the use of universal precautions. Conclusion: Screening questionnaires and urine drug screens indicated at least one in five patients with cancer may be at risk of opioid-use disorder. Several studies demonstrated associations between high-risk patients and clinical outcomes, such as aberrant behavior, prolonged opioid use, higher morphine-equivalent daily dose
Reducing the risk of rear-end collisions with infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) integration of variable speed limit control and adaptive cruise control system.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Wang, Hao; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shanwen; Xiang, Yun

2016-08-17

Adaptive cruise control (ACC) has been investigated recently to explore ways to increase traffic capacity, stabilize traffic flow, and improve traffic safety. However, researchers seldom have studied the integration of ACC and roadside control methods such as the variable speed limit (VSL) to improve safety. The primary objective of this study was to develop an infrastructure-to-vehicle (I2V) integrated system that incorporated both ACC and VSL to reduce rear-end collision risks on freeways. The intelligent driver model was firstly modified to simulate ACC behavior and then the VSL strategy used in this article was introduced. Next, the I2V system was proposed to integrate the 2 advanced techniques, ACC and VSL. Four scenarios of no control, VSL only, ACC only, and the I2V system were tested in simulation experiments. Time exposed time to collision (TET) and time integrated time to collision (TIT), 2 surrogate safety measures derived from time to collision (TTC), were used to evaluate safety issues associated with rear-end collisions. The total travel times of each scenario were also compared. The simulation results indicated that both the VSL-only and ACC-only methods had a positive impact on reducing the TET and TIT values (reduced by 53.0 and 58.6% and 59.0 and 65.3%, respectively). The I2V system combined the advantages of both ACC and VSL to achieve the most safety benefits (reduced by 71.5 and 77.3%, respectively). Sensitivity analysis of the TTC threshold also showed that the I2V system obtained the largest safety benefits with all of the TTC threshold values. The impact of different market penetration rates of ACC vehicles in I2V system indicated that safety benefits increase with an increase in ACC proportions. Compared to VSL-only and ACC-only scenarios, this integrated I2V system is more effective in reducing rear-end collision risks. The findings of this study provide useful information for traffic agencies to implement novel techniques to improve
Implications for U.S. trade and nonindigenous species risk resulting from increased economic integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

Science.gov (United States)

Amanda M. Countryman; Travis Warziniack; Erin Grey

2018-01-01

This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade...
Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J.; Eckelman, Matthew; Isaacs, Jacqueline A.; Pourzahedi, Leila

2015-01-01

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation
Integrating life cycle assessment into managing potential EHS risks of engineered nanomaterials: reviewing progress to date

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walker, William C.; Bosso, Christopher J., E-mail: c.bosso@neu.edu [Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs (United States); Eckelman, Matthew [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States); Isaacs, Jacqueline A. [Northeastern University, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering (United States); Pourzahedi, Leila [Northeastern University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (United States)

2015-08-15

The 2011 National Nanotechnology Initiative’s Environmental Health and Safety Research Strategy stressed the need for research to integrate life cycle considerations into risk management and, then, to better integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking on environmental, health, and safety (EHS) dimensions of nanomanufacturing. This paper reviews scholarly articles published 2010–2015 that in some way apply life cycle analysis to nanotechnology to assess the extent to which current research reflects the priorities lain out in the NNI report. As the NNI’s focus was primarily on the “responsible development of nanotechnology” we also focus our examination on the ways in which LCA, in concert with other methodologies, can provide utility to decision makers facing the challenge of implementing that broad goal. We explore some of the challenges and opportunities inherent in using LCA, a tool built to optimize manufacturing decisions, as a guide for policy formulation or tool for policy implementation.
Integrating chemical and biological status assessment: Assembling lines of evidence for the evaluation of river ecosystem risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munoz Gracia, Isabel; Sabater, Sergi

2014-01-01

This paper describes various approaches to evaluating ecological risk in rivers affected by multiple chemical stressors, with emphasis on biofilm and invertebrate community responses. Metrics should be considered as different lines of evidence that, when weighted, form an advanced weight of evidence approach to establishing the environmental risk on a basin scale. Combination of field surveys to obtain observational data of communities, in situ experiments, toxicological sediment tests and a good chemical description of the medium (water and sediment) helps give an integrative view of the chemical and biological state of a river ecosystem. The greater and more distinct the variables used, the greater is our ability to identify the effects of major stressors impairing communities. Weight of evidence is an integrative methodology for tackling the challenge of determining causal relations and applying this knowledge in the decision-making processes of river management.

Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Gero

2011-01-01

Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.
Ileus following total hip or knee arthroplasty is associated with increased risk of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Berend, Keith R; Lombardi, Adolph V; Mallory, Thomas H; Dodds, Kathleen L; Adams, Joanne B

2004-10-01

Venous thromboembolic disease (VTD), deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, causes morbidity and mortality following total hip and total knee arthroplasties, while ileus complicates up to 4.0%. The clinical courses of 2,949 patients undergoing 3,364 consecutive primary and revision total hip and total knee arthroplasties, radical debridements, and reimplantations at one institution over a 2-year period were reviewed to examine the relationship between ileus and VTD. VTD prophylaxis consisted of aspirin and intermittent plantar pulse boots for all patients except those at high risk, who received parenteral chemical prophylaxis and boots. Ileus occurred in 62 patients (2.1%) and symptomatic DVT in 51 (1.7%). With ileus, the incidence of DVT was 8.1%: odds ratio 5.5 (P =.0036). Symptomatic pulmonary embolism occurred in 7 patients (0.24%); with ileus the incidence was 3.2%: odds ratio 19.6 (P =.0082). A significant increase was observed in rates of VTD with ileus. We recommend using parenteral chemical and mechanical prophylaxis in patients with ileus following total hip and total knee arthroplasties.
Effect of hydroxyapatite coating on risk of revision after primary total hip arthroplasty in younger patients: findings from the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Registry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paulsen, Aksel; Pedersen, Alma B; Johnsen, Søren P

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: The effect of hydroxyapatite (HA) on implant survival in the medium and long term is uncertain. We studied the effect of HA coating of uncemented implants on the risk of cup and stem revision in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Danish Hip Arthropla......BACKGROUND: The effect of hydroxyapatite (HA) on implant survival in the medium and long term is uncertain. We studied the effect of HA coating of uncemented implants on the risk of cup and stem revision in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Danish Hip...
Forest fire risk assessment-an integrated approach based on multicriteria evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Goleiji, Elham; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Khorasani, Nematollah; Monavari, Seyed Masoud

2017-11-06

The present study deals with application of the weighted linear combination method for zoning of forest fire risk in Dohezar and Sehezar region of Mazandaran province in northern Iran. In this study, the effective criteria for fires were identified by the Delphi method, and these included ecological and socioeconomic parameters. In this regard, the first step comprised of digital layers; the required data were provided from databases, related centers, and field data collected in the region. Then, the map of criteria was digitized in a geographic information system, and all criteria and indexes were normalized by fuzzy logic. After that, the geographic information system (GIS 10.3) was integrated with the Weighted Linear Combination and the Analytical Network Process, to produce zonation of the forest fire risk map in the Dohezar and Sehezar region. In order to analyze accuracy of the evaluation, the results obtained from the study were compared to records of former fire incidents in the region. This was done using the Kappa coefficient test and a receiver operating characteristic curve. The model showing estimations for forest fire risk explained that the prepared map had accuracy of 90% determined by the Kappa coefficient test and the value of 0.924 by receiver operating characteristic. These results showed that the prepared map had high accuracy and efficacy.
Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabela M. M. Lima

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients.Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression.Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt.Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.
Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Isabela M M; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F; de Miranda, Débora M; Da Silva, Antônio G; Neves, Fernando S; Johnson, Sheri L

2017-01-01

Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients. Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression. Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt. Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.
Total - annual report 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This annual report presents the activities and results of TOTAL S.A., french society on oil and gas. It deals with statistics, the managers, key information on financial data and risk factors, information on the Company, unresolved Staff Comments, employees, major Shareholders, consolidated statements, markets, security, financial risks, defaults dividend arrearages and delinquencies, controls and procedures, code of ethics and financial statements. (A.L.B.)
NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith Korsholm, U.; Havskov Soerensen, J.; Astrup, P.; Lauritzen, B.

2011-04-01

The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe'. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric dispersion model calculations cover a period of 30 days following each release to ensure almost complete deposition of the dispersed material. The atlas contains maps showing the total deposition and time-integrated air concentration of Cs-137 and I-131 based on three years of meteorological data spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion. (Author)
NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith Korsholm, U.; Havskov Soerensen, J. (Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen (Denmark)); Astrup, P.; Lauritzen, B. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Radiation Research Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

2011-04-15

The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project 'Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe'. The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric dispersion model calculations cover a period of 30 days following each release to ensure almost complete deposition of the dispersed material. The atlas contains maps showing the total deposition and time-integrated air concentration of Cs-137 and I-131 based on three years of meteorological data spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion. (Author)
Creating the Total Quality Effective School.

Science.gov (United States)

Lezotte, Lawrence W.

This book shows how Deming's Total Quality Management (TQM) theory for organizational management can be integrated with the effective-schools literature. Part 1 compares the 14 principles of TQM with the tenets of effective-schools research. The second part develops a blueprint for creating the total quality effective school. The conceptual…
Designing an integrated model based on the indicators Quality and Earned Value for risk management in Information Technology Projects

OpenAIRE

TATLARI, Mohammad Reza; KAZEMİPOOR, Hamed

2015-01-01

There are two effective factors on Information Technology (IT) projects risk including quality and earned value so that by controlling these two factors and their increased level in IT projects, the corresponding risk can be decreased. Therefore in present study, an integrated model was designed based on quality and earned value indicators for risk management in IT projects on a new and efficient approach. The proposed algorithm included the steps such as preparing a list of several indicator...
Association of total energy intake and macronutrient consumption with colorectal cancer risk: results from a large population-based case-control study in Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Zhuoyu; Liu, Lin; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Roebothan, Barbara; Zhao, Jin; Dicks, Elizabeth; Cotterchio, Michelle; Buehler, Sharon; Campbell, Peter T; McLaughlin, John R; Parfrey, Patrick S

2012-03-26

Diet is regarded as one of the most important environmental factors associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A recent report comprehensively concluded that total energy intake does not have a simple relationship with CRC risk, and that the data were inconsistent for carbohydrate, cholesterol and protein. The objective of this study was to identify the associations of CRC risk with dietary intakes of total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, and alcohol using data from a large case-control study conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Ontario (ON), Canada. Incident colorectal cancer cases (n = 1760) were identified from population-based cancer registries in the provinces of ON (1997-2000) and NL (1999-2003). Controls (n = 2481) were a random sample of residents in each province, aged 20-74 years. Family history questionnaire (FHQ), personal history questionnaire (PHQ), and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were used to collect study data. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of intakes of total energy, macronutrients and alcohol with CRC risk. Total energy intake was associated with higher risk of CRC (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.21-2.01, p-trend = 0.02, 5th versus 1st quintile), whereas inverse associations emerged for intakes of protein (OR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.69-1.00, p-trend = 0.06, 5th versus 1st quintile), carbohydrate (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.63-1.00, p-trend = 0.05, 5th versus 1st quintile) and total dietary fiber (OR: 0.84, 95% CI:0.67-0.99, p-trend = 0.04, 5th versus 1st quintile). Total fat, alcohol, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and cholesterol were not associated with CRC risk. This study provides further evidence that high energy intake may increase risk of incident CRC, whereas diets high in protein, fiber, and carbohydrate may reduce the risk of the disease.
Association of total energy intake and macronutrient consumption with colorectal cancer risk: results from a large population-based case-control study in Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sun Zhuoyu

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Diet is regarded as one of the most important environmental factors associated with colorectal cancer (CRC risk. A recent report comprehensively concluded that total energy intake does not have a simple relationship with CRC risk, and that the data were inconsistent for carbohydrate, cholesterol and protein. The objective of this study was to identify the associations of CRC risk with dietary intakes of total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, and alcohol using data from a large case-control study conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL and Ontario (ON, Canada. Methods Incident colorectal cancer cases (n = 1760 were identified from population-based cancer registries in the provinces of ON (1997-2000 and NL (1999-2003. Controls (n = 2481 were a random sample of residents in each province, aged 20-74 years. Family history questionnaire (FHQ, personal history questionnaire (PHQ, and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ were used to collect study data. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of intakes of total energy, macronutrients and alcohol with CRC risk. Results Total energy intake was associated with higher risk of CRC (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.21-2.01, p-trend = 0.02, 5th versus 1st quintile, whereas inverse associations emerged for intakes of protein (OR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.69-1.00, p-trend = 0.06, 5th versus 1st quintile, carbohydrate (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.63-1.00, p-trend = 0.05, 5th versus 1st quintile and total dietary fiber (OR: 0.84, 95% CI:0.67-0.99, p-trend = 0.04, 5th versus 1st quintile. Total fat, alcohol, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and cholesterol were not associated with CRC risk. Conclusion This study provides further evidence that high energy intake may increase risk of incident CRC, whereas diets high in protein, fiber, and carbohydrate may reduce the risk of the disease.
An integrated approach of analytical network process and fuzzy based spatial decision making systems applied to landslide risk mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi Gheshlaghi, Hassan; Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar

2017-09-01

Landslides in mountainous areas render major damages to residential areas, roads, and farmlands. Hence, one of the basic measures to reduce the possible damage is by identifying landslide-prone areas through landslide mapping by different models and methods. The purpose of conducting this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a combination of two models of the analytical network process (ANP) and fuzzy logic in landslide risk mapping in the Azarshahr Chay basin in northwest Iran. After field investigations and a review of research literature, factors affecting the occurrence of landslides including slope, slope aspect, altitude, lithology, land use, vegetation density, rainfall, distance to fault, distance to roads, distance to rivers, along with a map of the distribution of occurred landslides were prepared in GIS environment. Then, fuzzy logic was used for weighting sub-criteria, and the ANP was applied to weight the criteria. Next, they were integrated based on GIS spatial analysis methods and the landslide risk map was produced. Evaluating the results of this study by using receiver operating characteristic curves shows that the hybrid model designed by areas under the curve 0.815 has good accuracy. Also, according to the prepared map, a total of 23.22% of the area, amounting to 105.38 km2, is in the high and very high-risk class. Results of this research are great of importance for regional planning tasks and the landslide prediction map can be used for spatial planning tasks and for the mitigation of future hazards in the study area.
Integrated occupational health care at sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Olaf Chresten

2011-01-01

exposures during life at sea and work place health promotion. SEAHEALTH and some of the shipping companies have already added workplace health promotion to occupational health care programs. The purpose of this article is to reinforce this trend by adding some international perspectives and by providing......Workplace Health Promotion is the combined efforts of employers, employees and society to improve the health and well-being of people at work. Integrated maritime health care can be defined as the total maritime health care function that includes the prevention of health risks from harmful...
Is Yang-Mills equation a totally integrable system. Lecture III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chau Wang, L.L.

1981-01-01

Topics covered include: loop-space formulation of gauge theory - loop-space chiral equation; two dimensional chiral equation - conservation laws, linear system and integrability; and parallel development for the loop-space chiral equation - subtlety
Simulation analysis for integrated evaluation of technical and commercial risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutleber, D.S.; Heiberger, E.M.; Morris, T.D.

1995-01-01

Decisions to invest in oil- and gasfield acquisitions or participating interests often are based on the perceived ability to enhance the economic value of the underlying asset. A multidisciplinary approach integrating reservoir engineering, operations and drilling, and deal structuring with Monte Carlo simulation modeling can overcome weaknesses of deterministic analysis and significantly enhance investment decisions. This paper discusses the use of spreadsheets and Monte Carlo simulation to generate probabilistic outcomes for key technical and economic parameters for ultimate identification of the economic volatility and value of potential deal concepts for a significant opportunity. The approach differs from a simple risk analysis for an individual well by incorporating detailed, full-field simulations that vary the reservoir parameters, capital and operating cost assumptions, and schedules on timing in the framework of various deal structures
Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Adám, Balázs; Molnár, Agnes; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal...... in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. METHODS: A comprehensive, prospective HIA...... to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes...
Total mercury in muscles and liver of Mugil spp. from three coastal lagoons of NW Mexico: concentrations and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado-Alvarez, C G; Frías-Espericueta, M G; Ruelas-Inzunza, J; Becerra-Álvarez, M J; Osuna-Martínez, C C; Aguilar-Juárez, M; Osuna-López, J I; Escobar-Sánchez, O; Voltolina, D

2017-07-01

Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry in muscles and liver of composite samples of Mugil cephalus and M. curema collected during November 2013 and in January, April, and July 2014 from the coastal lagoons Altata-Ensenada del Pabellón (AEP), Ceuta (CEU), and Teacapán-Agua Brava (TAG) of Sinaloa State. The mean Hg contents and information on local consumption were used to assess the possible risk caused by fish ingestion. Mean total mercury levels in the muscles ranged from 0.11 to 0.39 μg/g, while the range for liver was 0.12-3.91 μg/g. The mean Hg content of the liver was significantly (p mercury calculated for the younger age classes of one fishing community were >1, indicating a possible risk for some fishing communities of the Mexican Pacific coast.
An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective

OpenAIRE

Bin Zou; Xiaolu Jiang; Xiaoli Duan; Xiuge Zhao; Jing Zhang; Jingwen Tang; Guoqing Sun

2017-01-01

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewabl...

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