WorldWideScience

Sample records for total population growth

  1. Optimal fetal growth for the Caucasian singleton and assessment of appropriateness of fetal growth: an analysis of a total population perinatal database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence David M

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The appropriateness of an individual's intra uterine growth is now considered an important determinant of both short and long term outcomes, yet currently used measures have several shortcomings. This study demonstrates a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth based on the estimation of each individual's optimal newborn dimensions from routinely available perinatal data. Appropriateness of growth can then be inferred from the ratio of the value of the observed dimension to that of the optimal dimension. Methods Fractional polynomial regression models including terms for non-pathological determinants of fetal size (gestational duration, fetal gender and maternal height, age and parity were used to predict birth weight, birth length and head circumference from a population without any major risk factors for sub-optimal intra-uterine growth. This population was selected from a total population of all singleton, Caucasian births in Western Australia 1998–2002. Births were excluded if the pregnancy was exposed to factors known to influence fetal growth pathologically. The values predicted by these models were treated as the optimal values, given infant gender, gestational age, maternal height, parity, and age. Results The selected sample (N = 62,746 comprised 60.5% of the total Caucasian singleton birth cohort. Equations are presented that predict optimal birth weight, birth length and head circumference given gestational duration, fetal gender, maternal height, age and parity. The best fitting models explained 40.5% of variance for birth weight, 32.2% for birth length, and 25.2% for head circumference at birth. Conclusion Proportion of optimal birth weight (length or head circumference provides a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth that is less dependent on the health of the reference population or the quality of their morphometric data than is percentile position on a birth weight

  2. The dramatic increase in total knee replacement utilization rates in the United States cannot be fully explained by growth in population size and the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losina, Elena; Thornhill, Thomas S; Rome, Benjamin N; Wright, John; Katz, Jeffrey N

    2012-02-01

    Total knee replacement utilization in the United States more than doubled from 1999 to 2008. Although the reasons for this increase have not been examined rigorously, some have attributed the increase to population growth and the obesity epidemic. Our goal was to investigate whether the rapid increase in total knee replacement use over the past decade can be sufficiently attributed to changes in these two factors. We used data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to estimate changes in total knee replacement utilization rates from 1999 to 2008, stratified by age (eighteen to forty-four years, forty-five to sixty-four years, and sixty-five years or older). We obtained data on obesity prevalence and U.S. population growth from federal sources. We compared the rate of change in total knee replacement utilization with the rates of population growth and change in obesity prevalence from 1999 to 2008. In 2008, 615,050 total knee replacements were performed in the United States adult population, 134% more than in 1999. During the same time period, the overall population size increased by 11%. While the population of forty-five to sixty-four-year-olds grew by 29%, the number of total knee replacements in this age group more than tripled. The number of obese and non-obese individuals in the United States increased by 23% and 4%, respectively. Assuming unchanged indications for total knee replacement among obese and non-obese individuals with knee osteoarthritis over the last decade, these changes fail to account for the 134% growth in total knee replacement use. Population growth and obesity cannot fully explain the rapid expansion of total knee replacements in the last decade, suggesting that other factors must also be involved. The disproportionate increase in total knee replacements among younger patients may be a result of a growing number of knee injuries and expanding indications for the procedure.

  3. Simulating Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byington, Scott

    1997-01-01

    Presents a strategy to help students grasp the important implications of population growth. Involves an interactive demonstration that allows students to experience exponential and logistic population growth followed by a discussion of the implications of population-growth principles. (JRH)

  4. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  5. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  6. Rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    At the current rate of population growth, world population by 2000 is expected to reach 7 billion or more, with developing countries accounting for some 5.4 billion, and economically advanced nations accounting for 1.6 billion. 'Population explosion' is the result of falling mortality rates and continuing high birth rates. Many European countries, and Japan, have already completed what is termed as demographic transition, that is, birth rates have fallen to below 20 births per 1000 population, death rates to 10/1000 population, and annual growth rates are 1% or less; annual growth rates for less developed countries ranged from 2 to 3.5%. Less developed countries can be divided into 3 groups: 1) countries with both high birth and death rates; 2) countries with high birth rates and low death rates; and 3) countries with intermediate and declining birth rates and low death rates. Rapid population growth has serious economic consequences. It encourages inequities in income distribution; it limits rate of growth of gross national product by holding down level of savings and capital investments; it exerts pressure on agricultural production and land; and it creates unemployment problems. In addition, the quality of education for increasing number of chidren is adversely affected, as high proportions of children reduce the amount that can be spent for the education of each child out of the educational budget; the cost and adequacy of health and welfare services are affected in a similar way. Other serious consequences of rapid population growth are maternal death and illness, and physical and mental retardation of children of very poor families. It is very urgent that over a billion births be prevented in the next 30 years to reduce annual population growth rate from the current 2% to 1% per year.

  7. Population growth and consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkley, K

    1997-04-01

    The relationship between population growth, resource consumption, and environmental degradation is complex. The rise in "greenhouse gases" that will cause climatic change is clearly due to human activity, and pollutants are often concentrated in densely populated areas. However, even an area with a negative population growth, such as Russia, can experience severe environmental degradation due to poor management. Consumption patterns have the most effect on ozone depletion, while population growth threatens biodiversity of and within species through the destruction of ecosystems. Migration joins population growth and social factors, such as land inequality, as major causes of deforestation, and global demand for water is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth. Coastal development and over-fishing threaten to deplete the oceans, while soil quality is threatened by inappropriate land use. Estimates of the earth's carrying capacity range from less than 3 billion to more than 44 billion people, indicating how difficult it is to assess this figure. Development efforts throughout the world may lead to human gains that will ultimately be negated by environmental losses. These factors have led to growing support for environmentally sustainable development.

  8. Perspectives on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-09-01

    Assume that everyone has the same information on population growth. There are many different opinions on what that information means and what should be done about it. Some people worry about current rates of growth, especially in the context of growing per capita consumption, and believe that all reasonable steps should be taken to reduce rates and stabilize population size. Others believe that growing populations can be accommodated by reducing consumption in rich countries, that technological progress will supply the new resources needed, that the development needed to support a larger population can be sustained, that large population size fosters prosperity, or that birth rates are falling and current growth is just temporary. These are all valid positions worthy of at least debate. Interest groups commonly acknowledgement population growth as a significant issue, but offer no response to it. Sometimes the issue goes unrecognized because it conflicts with a more highly valued personal agenda item. Finally, some responses come from confusion and anger rather than reasoning or self-interest. The proponents of these latter arguments bring nothing constructive to the debate.

  9. [Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurz, R

    1982-05-01

    The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

  10. Population growth, poverty and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibirige, J S

    1997-07-01

    One of the most popular explanations for the many problems that face Africa is population growth. Africa's population has doubled since 1960. Africa has the highest fertility rate in the world and the rate of population growth is higher than in any other region. At the same time, Africa faces a social and economic situation that is viewed by many as alarming. Among the problems that devastate Africa is that of persistent poor health. Africa has lower life expectancy, higher mortality rates and is affected by more disease and illness conditions than any other region. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, this paper examines the relationship between population growth, poverty and poor health. While most analyses have focused on population growth as an original cause of poverty and underdevelopment, this paper argues that while both population growth and poor health play a significant role in exacerbating the problem of poverty, they are themselves primary consequences of poverty rather than its cause.

  11. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  12. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...... of networks choose a tool (project, policy) to implement in the city, success will be more likely. Furthermore, virtuous circles will arise. The author gives an overview of two historical cases in urban growth, in Europe (1200-1800) and the U.S.A. (1800 to today)....

  13. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  14. The outlook for population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ronald

    2011-07-29

    Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

  15. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  16. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  17. Political economy of population growth.

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    Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

    1987-01-01

    Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

  18. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  19. Environmental impact of population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

    Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

  20. Population growth and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbridge, S

    1989-01-01

    The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

  1. Population Growth and National Population Policy of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thukral, A. K.; Singh, B. P.

    2008-01-01

    The population growth in India may overtake China by the year 2030. The National Population Policy of India targets population stabilization in India by the year 2045. The present paper carries out objective analysis of the population growth in India in terms of change in specific growth. At the present rate of specific growth rate decline, the population by the end of the century will be 2.49 billion. For the population to achieve zero growth by the year 2045, a decline in specific growth rate will have to be achieved at the rate of 0.000428 per year.

  2. Population: Census Bureau Total Estimates (2010-2012)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — Total population estimates are estimates of the total number of residents living in an area on July 1 of each year. The Census Bureau’s Population Division produces...

  3. Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podyashchikh, P

    1968-01-01

    Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

  4. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  5. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

  6. Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

    OpenAIRE

    Demetrius, L.

    1989-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

  7. On population growth near protected areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas N Joppa

    Full Text Available Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.'s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.

  8. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  9. Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

    2018-05-01

    Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

  10. Population growth changes targets for immunization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

    1995-01-01

    The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

  11. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  12. Population growth and development: the Kenyan experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyamwange, M

    1995-01-01

    Rapid population growth in Kenya and high fertility impacts negatively on economic development. The growth and high fertility results in declines in gross national product, per capita food consumption, and land quality; a high dependency ratio; urban crowding; and inadequate health systems. East Africa has the highest crude birth rates in Africa, and Kenya has the highest birth rate of 54/1000 population in East Africa. The African crude death rate is 50% higher than the world average, but Kenya's death rate is the lowest in East Africa and comparable to North American and European death rates. Kenya has the highest rate of natural increase of about 4%. Population growth rates rose over the decades. Kenya's average population density is well above the sub-Saharan African average and much lower than very high density countries. Population is unequally distributed. Regional densities are widely divergent, and the highest densities in Western province are well above densities in Rwanda and Burundi. Urban growth has increased, as has migration to urban areas. Nairobi has 57% of urban population. Improved health and nutrition have contributed to increased life expectancy. The desired family size is large. The impact of demographic factors on economic conditions is evident in the decline in gross national product per capita growth to under 1% during 1972-88. A slight upswing occurred during 1988-93, but other crises are emerging. Food production has not kept pace with population growth. Production has been low due to serious land degradation, short fallow periods, and traditional farming practices. Population pressure has forced families to shift agriculture onto marginal lands, and desertification has increased. A growing proportion of the population is unemployed or underemployed. Population programs should address the underlying conditions for fertility decline.

  13. Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarti, A. K.

    1976-01-01

    An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

  14. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run ..... Where; y is the actual income; λ is the adjustment factor and gy is output per ... income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total ..... 0.00 and 0.01 probability values are not normally distributed around the.

  15. Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1989-01-01

    "Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

  16. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  17. Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Braumann, C. A.

    2010-01-01

    Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

  18. Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K

    1985-07-01

    There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

  19. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2005-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  20. On the theory of global population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    2010-01-01

    Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

  1. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

  2. Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

    1995-01-01

    The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

  3. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  4. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-11-14

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  5. The total satellite population of the Milky Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Oliver; Cautun, Marius; Jenkins, Adrian; Frenk, Carlos S.; Helly, John C.

    2018-05-01

    The total number and luminosity function of the population of dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way (MW) provide important constraints on the nature of the dark matter and on the astrophysics of galaxy formation at low masses. However, only a partial census of this population exists because of the flux limits and restricted sky coverage of existing Galactic surveys. We combine the sample of satellites recently discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) survey with the satellites found in Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 9 (together these surveys cover nearly half the sky) to estimate the total luminosity function of satellites down to MV = 0. We apply a new Bayesian inference method in which we assume that the radial distribution of satellites independently of absolute magnitude follows that of subhaloes selected according to their peak maximum circular velocity. We find that there should be at least 124^{+40}_{-27}(68% CL, statistical error) satellites brighter than MV = 0 within 300kpc of the Sun. As a result of our use of new data and better simulations, and a more robust statistical method, we infer a much smaller population of satellites than reported in previous studies using earlier SDSS data only; we also address an underestimation of the uncertainties in earlier work by accounting for stochastic effects. We find that the inferred number of faint satellites depends only weakly on the assumed mass of the MW halo and we provide scaling relations to extend our results to different assumed halo masses and outer radii. We predict that half of our estimated total satellite population of the MW should be detected by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). The code implementing our estimation method is available online.†

  6. Energy consumption and total factor productivity growth in Iranian agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Moghaddasi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we investigated the relation between energy consumption and growth of total factor productivity (TFP of agriculture in Iran from 1974 to 2012 using Solow residual method. The results from estimated aggregate Cobb–Douglas production function showed that one percent change in the value of labor, capital and energy will lead to 4.07, 0.09 and 0.49 percent change in agriculture value added, respectively. Also in a long term, based on the Johansen cointegration test, there is a negative relation between TFP growth and energy consumption in Iranian agriculture which might be due to cheap and inefficient energy use in this sector. Gradual liberalization of energy price and use of so called green box support policies is recommended.

  7. Population ageing alongside health care spending growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakovljević Mihajlo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Silver Tsunami or population ageing has become a globally widespread phenomenon. The purpose of this review is to observe its dynamics and consequences from a local Balkan perspective. The main drivers of this unique demographic evolution are extended longevity, improved early childhood survival, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to falling female fertility. This process lasting well over a century is taking its toll on contemporary societies. Major side effects are shrinking young labor force and growing pool of elderly and retired citizens in many countries. This equation tends to worsen further in the future threatening long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds. Notable health expenditure growth, accelerating worldwide since the 1960s, is to a large degree attributable to ageing itself. Growing share of senior citizens increases demand for medical services and costs of health care provision. Home-based care provided by the family caregivers presents another important reality putting a huge burden on modern communities. Serbs are no exception in this landscape. Historical demographic evolution of this nation gives a clear evidence of advanced and accelerated ageing, which is well documented in post-World War II era. This synthesis of rich published evidence shows clear upward parallel trend between the pace of population aging and the growth of health expenditure. National authorities shall be forced to consider reform of the current health care financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. This might be the only way to smooth out the impact of population ageing on the financial sustainability of the health system and long-term medical care in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 175014

  8. Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, G; Sage, C

    1994-01-01

    The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

  9. [African population growth: status and prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabutin, D

    1991-01-01

    Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

  10. Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-hyun, S

    1983-01-26

    The population of Korea is expected to increase by another 1/4 of the current population by the year 2000 if the government family planning program is successful. Aggravating Korea's demographic situation is the worldwide phenomenon of urban congestion. According to official statistics, Seoul's population increased from only 1 million in 1953 to 8.5 million in 1980, the latest year for which figures are available. While Seoul's population alone accounts for 22.3% of the total population, that of the greater Seoul area comprises 13,542,000 people or 35.5% of Korea's population. Most of the country's best institutions of higher learning are concentrated in Seoul, and in 1979 Seoul accounted for nearly half (47.7%) of the nation's college and graduate students. Seoul is also the center of the country's political, economic and cultural life and provides better employment opportunities than elsewhere in the country. The exodus of young people from rural areas and the growing census figures have triggered fears that the subsequently reduced agricultural productivity would result in a food supply crisis. In an attempt to remedy the demographic disparity between urban and rural areas, the government initiated a 10-year program in 1982 to promote jobs and improve medicare and the educational system in provincial cities. The plan encourages the establishment of factories and other auxiliary facilities outside the Seoul area that are necessary to support the 1988 Seoul Olympics. The program's success remains in question as it requires consistent, determined, and well coordinated efforts on the part of policy makers to curb the historical trend which has been gaining momentum over the past 100 years. 2 approaches have been adopted in the government's efforts to integrate population dynamics into the development process, overseas migration, and planned parenthood. Despite the 1981 liberalization of overseas travel for Koreans, Korean migration overseas is not expected to grow

  11. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  12. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  13. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    of the West African forest belt. There is also the absence of the Green Revolution, i.e., the use of new high yielding seeds and new technologies in agriculture that has led to marked increases in yields in most other parts of the world. A totally different and more productive agriculture might evolve if African governments were to fundamentally change their vision. Existing production technology could allow substantial increases in the yields of many crops if some basic changes were made in the policies affecting agriculture. A way to achieve such change would be to make farming profitable. The effect of population growth in diminishing returns to agriculture also lends urgency to the need for family planning. Generally, population policy in Africa badly needs strengthening.

  14. Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

    1984-09-01

    The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

  15. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  16. Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, Nancy

    1980-01-01

    The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

  17. Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Richard H.

    Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

  18. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  19. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  20. 1 2 POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DILEMMA OF RURAL LIFE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Ike

    The high as well as the unrestrained population growth rate of the country has, to a ... that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore .... The privilege and opportunity of acquiring functional education, for instance ...

  1. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    OpenAIRE

    Axel Kristinsson; Árni Daníel Júlíusson

    2016-01-01

    A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionar...

  2. The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

    2018-02-01

    Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

  3. Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

    OpenAIRE

    Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

  4. Exogenous application of plant growth regulators increased the total ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRECIOUS

    2009-11-02

    Nov 2, 2009 ... the exogenous application of flavonoids reports plant growth regulation ... method used for extraction and quantification of endogenous gibberellins was ... 365 nm) while separation was done on a C18 reverse-phase HPLC.

  5. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  6. Time related total lactic acid bacteria population diversity and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2011-02-07

    Feb 7, 2011 ... the diversity and dynamics of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) population in fresh ..... combining morphological, biochemical and molecular data are important for ..... acid bacteria from fermented maize (Kenkey) and their interactions.

  7. Time related total lactic acid bacteria population diversity and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The total lactic acid bacterial community involved in the spontaneous fermentation of malted cowpea fortified cereal weaning food was investigated by phenotypically and cultivation independent method. A total of 74 out of the isolated 178 strains were Lactobacillus plantarum, 32 were Pediococcus acidilactici and over 60% ...

  8. Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santric-Milicevic, M; Vasic, V; Terzic-Supic, Z

    2016-08-15

    In times of austerity, the availability of econometric health knowledge assists policy-makers in understanding and balancing health expenditure with health care plans within fiscal constraints. The objective of this study is to explore whether the health workforce supply of the public health care sector, population number, and utilization of inpatient care significantly contribute to total health expenditure. The dependent variable is the total health expenditure (THE) in Serbia from the years 2003 to 2011. The independent variables are the number of health workers employed in the public health care sector, population number, and inpatient care discharges per 100 population. The statistical analyses include the quadratic interpolation method, natural logarithm and differentiation, and multiple linear regression analyses. The level of significance is set at P Total health expenditure increased by 1.21 standard deviations, with an increase in health workforce growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Furthermore, this rate decreased by 1.12 standard deviations, with an increase in (negative) population growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Finally, the growth rate increased by 0.38 standard deviation, with an increase of the growth rate of inpatient care discharges per 100 population by 1 standard deviation (P < 0.001). Study results demonstrate that the government has been making an effort to control strongly health budget growth. Exploring causality relationships between health expenditure and health workforce is important for countries that are trying to consolidate their public health finances and achieve universal health coverage at the same time.

  9. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  10. Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotter, Meredith V; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2013-03-01

    Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

  11. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2018-04-01

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Green sea turtle age, growth, population characteristics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Morphology, sex ratio, body condition, disease status, age structure, and growth patterns were characterized for 448 green sea turtles cold stunned in St. Joseph...

  13. OGJ300 population shrinks, but assets total grows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.J.; Bell, L.

    1995-01-01

    Publicly traded oil and gas companies in the US are declining in population but growing in financial terms. The Oil and Gas Journal 300, the annual list of publicly traded companies with oil production in the US, includes only 281 companies this year. As of the data compilation deadline, only that number of companies had filed annual financial results with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The OGJ300 ranks companies by assets without regard to whether the companies use the successful efforts or full cost accounting method. Normally, assets for a given set of properties are higher under full cost than under successful efforts accounting

  14. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  15. 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    have lingered about the plausibility and consequences of population ... food supply, environmental degradation and shortage of infrastructural facilities? .... history punctuated by slave trade, colonialism, imperialiqm and globalization all of ...

  16. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  17. Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2012-05-01

    The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

  18. Health, family planning and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, A; Standley, C C

    1973-01-01

    Maternal age over 35, close spacing of births, parity over 4, and unwanted pregnancy are discussed as factors that are associated with increased maternal and infant mortality. The likelihood of death due to childbearing is twice as high in the 30-40 age group as in the 20-30 age group and increases 4-to five-fold in the 40+ group. Brith Birth of less than 24-30 months are associated with a two-fold increase in neonatal and infant deaths. Health objectives of large scale family planning programs are geared toward avoiding such births. This paper proposes that these objectives would result in a decrease in maternal and child deaths and thereby lead to growth. A simultaneous lowering of birth rates, however, should offset this growth.

  19. Social structural consequences of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, R E

    1981-01-01

    Estimates from archaeological data of the numbers in the elite classes, nonelite occupational specialists, density of population, city size, and size of political units in the ancient Maya civilization suggest that there was a quantum shift in rate of development in the Early Classic period, associated with intensification of agriculture, and that the social structure approximated to a generalized feudal pattern.

  20. Using Lemna to Study Geometric Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBuhr, Larry E.

    1991-01-01

    An experiment in which students collect and analyze data on the population size of a real organism rather that on a model is presented. The activity allows for the integration of mathematics, graphing techniques, and the use of computers. The lesson is designed to follow the learning cycle format. (KR)

  1. Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Sarker

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

  2. Innovation and the growth of human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

    2017-12-05

    Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species ( Homo sapiens ) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services ( θ ), and the strength of technological feedback ( ξ ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead

  3. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  4. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian M Forbes

    Full Text Available Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1 food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight pellets, 2 food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content pellets, and 3 control (no food supplementation, n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the

  6. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  7. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... density-dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of West Coast steenbras that make it extremely susceptible to overfishing; ...

  8. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  9. Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

    2011-01-01

    First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

  10. Meta-analysis of relationships between human offtake, total mortality and population dynamics of gray wolves (Canis lupus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Scott; Rotella, Jay J

    2010-09-29

    Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995-1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28-50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves.

  11. Meta-analysis of relationships between human offtake, total mortality and population dynamics of gray wolves (Canis lupus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Creel

    Full Text Available Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995-1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28-50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves.

  12. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bental, B

    1989-03-01

    The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

  13. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005) which projected the African Population at 1,349 million by 2025 and 1,969 million by 2050. These figures are so frightening that the use of communication to contribute to checking the high population growth is challenged. We discuss ...

  14. A new population growth map with variable coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jannussis, A.

    1986-01-01

    In the present paper it is investigated a simple population growth map with variable coefficients. Moreover, it is studied the new population map of the form xsub(j+1) = axsub(j) (1/(1 + bxsub(j)) -1/(1 + cxsub(j))), c not= b, j = 0, 1,..., which is transformed in an equivalent logistic map

  15. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  16. Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, J L

    1989-03-01

    Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

  17. TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapitza, Sergei P.

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

  18. Model-based estimation of finite population total in stratified sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The work presented in this paper concerns the estimation of finite population total under model – based framework. Nonparametric regression approach as a method of estimating finite population total is explored. The asymptotic properties of the estimators based on nonparametric regression are also developed under ...

  19. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  20. THE ANALYSIS OF TOTAL EXPENSES AT 1000 LEI TOTAL REVENUES AND OF THE RESULT OF THE GROWTH OF THEIR EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LĂPĂDUŞI MIHAELA LOREDANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available act The analysis of the company’s expenses is mainly important in the management and control activity, because it highlights the way in which are used the resources (material, human, financial and the impact of their allocation on the company’s performances. The optimization of the level of costs or the their reduction, where it is possible, without affecting the quality of the products and working conditions of the activity, represent the primary objectives of the management of companies.[9] Expenses have been and will remain one of the key indicators of a company requiring continuous application of a control and monitoring mechanism because when it comes to expenses we never speak of their growth, but their reduction. This reduction is the main objective of any economic agent that will result in increasing the efficiency of the entire activity. The costs of a company reflect in cash the total consumption of material, human and financial resources used in manufacturing and selling of the products. The level, dynamics and structure of these expenses reflect synthetically the activity of industrial enterprises when using effectively the available resources. The purpose of this article is to analyze synthetically a company's expenses efficiency based on the efficiency ratio of total expenses at 1000 lei total revenues and the purpose of the article results in a set of conclusions that will highlight a number of important issues concerning the role and the importance of the efficiency of total expenses related to total revenue, as well as the result of the growth of the efficiency of total expenses.

  1. Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okpala, A O

    1990-12-01

    The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

  2. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  3. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

  4. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  5. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth agriculture in pakistan: trends in different time horizons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.; Mushtaq, K.; Ashfaq, M.

    2008-01-01

    The present study estimated total factor productivity (TFP) growth of agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 1971-2006 by employing Tornqvist-Theil (T-T) index number methodology. Most of the conventional inputs were used in constructing the input index. The output index includes major crops, minor crops, important fruits and vegetables and four categories of livestock products. The study estimated TFP growth rates for different decades. The results showed that TFP growth rate was lowest during the decade of 70s (0.96 percent) and highest during the last six years of the study period (2.86 percent). The decade of 80s and 90s registered TFP growth rate of 2.24 percent and 2.46 percent, respectively. The results also explained that TFP growth contributed about 33 percent to total agricultural output growth during the decade of 70s and this contribution increased up to 83 percent during the last six years of the study period. The contribution of TFP growth to total agricultural output growth was 53 and 81 percent during the decades of 80s and 90s, respectively. The study observed that macro level government policies, institutional factors and weather conditions are the major key factors that influenced TFP growth. (author)

  6. Fetal and infant growth patterns associated with total and abdominal fat distribution in school-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gishti, Olta; Gaillard, Romy; Manniesing, Rashindra; Abrahamse-Berkeveld, Marieke; van der Beek, Eline M; Heppe, Denise H M; Steegers, Eric A P; Hofman, Albert; Duijts, Liesbeth; Durmuş, Büşra; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

    2014-07-01

    Higher infant growth rates are associated with an increased risk of obesity in later life. We examined the associations of longitudinally measured fetal and infant growth patterns with total and abdominal fat distribution in childhood. We performed a population-based prospective cohort study among 6464 children. We measured growth characteristics in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, at birth, and at 6, 12, and 24 months. Body mass index, fat mass index (body fat mass/height(2)), lean mass index (body lean mass/height(2)), android/gynoid fat ratio measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, and sc and preperitoneal abdominal fat measured by ultrasound at the median age of 6.0 years (90% range, 5.7-7.4). We observed that weight gain in the second and third trimesters of fetal life and in early, mid, and late infancy were independently and positively associated with childhood body mass index (P fat mass index, android/gynoid fat ratio, and abdominal fat in childhood (P Children with both fetal and infant growth acceleration had the highest childhood body mass index, fat mass index, and sc abdominal fat, whereas children with fetal growth deceleration and infant growth acceleration had the highest value for android/gynoid fat ratio and the lowest value for lean mass index (P fat. Fetal growth deceleration followed by infant growth acceleration may lead to an adverse body fat distribution in childhood.

  7. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

  8. The Impact of Coercive Migrations on the Changes of Total Population Flux in the War-Engulfed Croatian Counties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Pažanin

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The author deals with the war impact and the impact of coercive migrations on the changes of total population fl ux between two censuses. On the eve of and during the Croatian War of Independence, the migration of population of the Republic of Croatia from the war-engulfed areas to the free areas of the country or to the foreign countries increased. The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina has caused a new wave of refugees from that country and a further migrational fl ux in our country. In the article, the author has established, on the case of the war-engulfed areas of eleven Croatian counties, that the war and coercive migrations have caused a decline of population, the growth of aged population, as well as changes in national and confessional structure.

  9. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

  10. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mainstream view from these debates and discussions is that rapid population growth in Africa has put pressure on the environment, leading to environmental degradation which translates into shortfall in food production and atrophied development. This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological ...

  11. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  12. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  13. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  14. Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    2008-06-01

    We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

  15. Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Arlt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

  16. Rapid population growth and fragile environments: the sub-Saharan African and south Asian experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, J C; Caldwell, P

    1994-02-18

    Case studies of the world's two poorest regions, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were used to illustrate the compromised standard of living of the poor and environmental damage due to continued rapid population growth. The conclusion was that the livelihoods of the poor should not be endangered for preserving the living standards of richer people. Nations must not ignore the challenges of reducing population growth as fast as can be achieved. The transitional period over the next 50 years is the main concern, because population growth rates will be slowing. Rural population growth is expected to decline from 60% of total population growth in South Asia to 7% between 2000 and 2025; similarly the decline in sub-Saharan Africa would be from 50% to 15%. Over the past 30 years, food production in South Asia has kept pace with population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has adopted food importation to meet demand. African problems are a low resource base, faster population growth, and the fact that governments and individuals are too poor to maintain soil fertility. Long-term studies of how much soil depletion will occur are not available for these regions, and local area studies are not as pessimistic. Transition policies are needed to put "people first in terms of engineered or directed population and ecological change." The six main issues are the following: 1) the Brundtland Commission appropriately identified poverty as the main cause and effect of environmental degradation because of the threat to survival; 2) the verdict is still out about whether food production will keep pace with population growth through economic growth and investment in agriculture; 3) empirical research is needed to examine local social and regulatory institutions and the possibility of reinforcing these mechanisms rather than instituting central controls; 4) central coercion or modernizing economic policies can destroy local level controls; 5) famine is a complex ecological phenomenon and the

  17. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  18. [Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

    2000-01-01

    In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

  19. Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

  20. Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". full text

  1. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  2. Impact of population and economic growth on carbon emissions in Taiwan using an analytic tool STIRPAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Chao Yeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon emission has increasingly become an issue of global concern because of climate change. Unfortunately, Taiwan was listed as top 20 countries of carbon emission in 2014. In order to provide appropriate measures to control carbon emission, it appears that there is an urgent need to address how such factors as population and economic growth impact the emission of carbon dioxide in any developing countries. In addition to total population, both the percentages of population living in urban area (i.e., urbanization percentage, and non-dependent population may also serve as limiting factors. On the other hand, the total energy-driven gross domestic production (GDP and the percentage of GDP generated by the manufacturing industries are assessed to see their respective degree of impact on carbon emission. Therefore, based on the past national data in the period 1990–2014 in Taiwan, an analytic tool of Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT was employed to see how well those aforementioned factors can describe their individual potential impact on global warming, which is measured by the total amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere. Seven scenarios of STIRPAT model were proposed and tested statistically for the significance of each proposed model. As a result, two models were suggested to predict the impact of carbon emission due to population and economic growth by the year 2025 in Taiwan.

  3. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  4. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  5. Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Koomen, Eric

    2017-06-01

    Lack of cross-border transport supply has repeatedly been blamed for the fact that national borders limit spatial interaction and, consequently, the growth of border regions. This study applies an accessibility approach to investigate for most municipalities in ten countries in mainland West Europe if foreign transport supply is lagging behind, and if population growth in these municipalities has been affected by the limits that national borders have imposed on market access. To do so, data describing historical population changes and road networks between 1961 and 2011 have been used. The results show that in the study area, cross-border transport accessibility was not at a disadvantage in 1961 and has since then grown even more than domestic accessibility. However, municipal population growth has depended almost exclusively on domestic market access. Processes of economic international integration in the study area are found to coincide with the growth of cross-border accessibility, but do not have a clear coincidence with the effects of cross-border accessibility on population growth.

  6. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  7. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

  8. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  9. Total pubertal growth in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis treated with growth hormone: analysis of a single center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, S; Beyerlein, A; Ripperger, P; Roeb, J; Dalla Pozza, R; Häfner, R; Haas, J P; Schmidt, H

    2012-10-01

    Growth failure is a permanent sequelae in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The aim of the study was to compare pubertal growth in control and growth hormone (GH) treated JIA subjects. 64 children with JIA at a mean age of 10.38 ± 2.80 years were enrolled and followed until final height (measured in standard deviation (SD) scores). 39 children (20 m) received GH therapy and 24 (9 m) served as controls. GH dose was 0.33 mg/kg/week. Linear regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing total pubertal growth. Mean total pubertal growth was 21.1 ± 1.3 cm (mean ± SD) in GH treated JIA patients and 13.8 ± 1.5 cm in controls. Final height was significantly higher with GH treatment (-1.67 ± 1.20 SD) compared to controls (-3.20 ± 1.84 SD). Linear regression model identified age at onset of puberty (ß=-4.2,CI: -5.9, -2.6 in controls and ß=-2.3,CI: -3.6, -1.1 in GH treated) as the main factor for total pubertal growth. Final height SDS was determined by the difference to target height at onset of puberty (ß=-0.59;CI: -0.80, -0.37 in controls and ß=-0.30,CI: -0.52, -0.08 in GH treated), age at onset of puberty (ß=0.47;CI:0.02,0.93 in controls and 0.23;CI: -0.00,0.46 in GH treated) and height gain during puberty (ß=0.13;CI:0.05,0.21 in controls and ß=0.11;CI:0.07,0.16 in GH treated). Total pubertal growth in JIA patients treated with GH was increased by a factor of 1.5 greater in comparison to controls leading to a significantly better final height. To maximize final height GH treatment should be initiated early to reduce the height deficit at onset of puberty. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem Vanlaer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Although the recent global financial crisis has stimulated a vast amount of research on the impact of public debt on economic growth and also increasingly on the role of private credit, the total levels of indebtedness of an economy have largely been ignored. This paper studies the impact of the total level of and increases in debt-to-GDP on economic growth for 26 developed countries in the short, medium and longer term. We analyse whether we can predict the future level of growth, simply by looking at the total level of debt, or increases in that debt level. We find that there is a negative correlation between high levels of debt and short term economic growth, but that this effect tapers in the medium and long term. Similarly, we find that rapid debt accumulation is negatively related to economic growth over the short term, the impact is less pronounced over the medium term and is non-existent over the long term.

  11. Effect of road side dust pollution on the growth and total chlorophyll ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of dust in Vitis vinifera L. on its pigmentation and growth was studied in 2012. Measurements were taken for plants in the Campus University of Balochistan, Quetta. A significant reduction in plant length, cover, number of leaves and total chlorophyll contents for V. vinifera L. was observed. The maximum reduction ...

  12. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, M S

    1987-01-01

    Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

  13. Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

  14. Industry efficiency and total factor productivity growth under resources and environmental constraint in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Feng; Li, Ling; Xia, X H

    2012-01-01

    The growth of China's industry has been seriously depending on energy and environment. This paper attempts to apply the directional distance function and the Luenberger productivity index to measure the environmental efficiency, environmental total factor productivity, and its components at the level of subindustry in China over the period from 1999 to 2009 while considering energy consumption and emission of pollutants. This paper also empirically examines the determinants of efficiency and productivity change. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, the main sources of environmental inefficiency of China's industry are the inefficiency of gross industrial output value, the excessive energy consumption, and pollutant emissions. Secondly, the highest growth rate of environmental total factor productivity among the three industrial categories is manufacturing, followed by mining, and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water. Thirdly, foreign direct investment, capital-labor ratio, ownership structure, energy consumption structure, and environmental regulation have varying degrees of effects on the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity.

  15. Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, A E

    1973-01-01

    The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

  16. The 50/50 cc Total Artificial Heart Trial: Extending the Benefits of the Total Artificial Heart to Underserved Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Dennis; Villa, Chet R; Simón Morales, David Luís

    2017-01-01

    While use of the total artificial heart (TAH) is growing, the use of the device is not uniform across the gender and age spectrum because the vast majority of implants are in adult males. SynCardia has recently developed a smaller 50 cc TAH that was designed to accommodate patients with a body surface area as low as 1.2 m 2 (potentially even lower using virtual implantation). Herein, we describe the early use of the 50 cc TAH (10 implants in the US and 18 outside the US). Twenty-eight devices have been implanted worldwide. Nineteen (68%) patients were female, 4 (14%) were 21 years of age or younger, and 2 (7%) had a diagnosis of congenital heart disease (1 Fontan). The smallest patient, by body surface area, was 1.35 m 2 . Six patients (21%) have been placed on the Freedom Driver, all of whom have survived. Fourteen patients (50%) have had a positive outcome to date. The development of the 50 cc TAH has expanded the population of patients who may benefit from TAH support and thus may help improve outcomes for patients who have had limited biventricular support options to date. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Detecting crop population growth using chlorophyll fluorescence imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Heng; Qian, Xiangjie; Zhang, Lan; Xu, Sailong; Li, Haifeng; Xia, Xiaojian; Dai, Liankui; Xu, Liang; Yu, Jingquan; Liu, Xu

    2017-12-10

    For both field and greenhouse crops, it is challenging to evaluate their growth information on a large area over a long time. In this work, we developed a chlorophyll fluorescence imaging-based system for crop population growth information detection. Modular design was used to make the system provide high-intensity uniform illumination. This system can perform modulated chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics measurement and chlorophyll fluorescence parameter imaging over a large area of up to 45  cm×34  cm. The system can provide different lighting intensity by modulating the duty cycle of its control signal. Results of continuous monitoring of cucumbers in nitrogen deficiency show the system can reduce the judge error of crop physiological status and improve monitoring efficiency. Meanwhile, the system is promising in high throughput application scenarios.

  18. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  19. Project Mahathir: ‘Extraordinary’ Population Growth in Sabah

    OpenAIRE

    Frank, Sina

    2006-01-01

    The Malaysian state of Sabah faced an “extraordinary” population growth during the last decades. Illegal immigrants are said to have been issued Malaysian Identity Cards based on false statutory declarations. The so-called “Project Mahathir” changed Sabah’s ethnic make-up as well as the participation in elections. Politicians are said to have made use of “Phantom voters” in order to decide Sabah elections. Finally, with the help of a petition Sabah-based NGO’s demand an investi...

  20. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  1. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  2. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  3. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  4. Growth in Total Height and Its Components and Cardiometabolic Health in Childhood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugaard, Line Klingen; Baker, Jennifer Lyn; Perng, Wei

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Short stature or short legs is associated with cardiometabolic disease. Few studies have addressed this issue in children, incorporated repeated measures, or studied modern cohorts. METHODS: We examined if change in total height, leg length and trunk length between two time points from...... was a cardiometabolic risk score based on sex-specific internal z-scores for systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol. RESULTS: Mean (SD) total height was 97.9 (4.5) cm in boys and 97.1 (4.7) cm in girls...... in early childhood and 129.1 (7.2) cm in boys and 128.3 (7.9) cm in girls in mid-childhood. Trunk length constituted about half of total height. In linear regression models adjusted for parental anthropometry and socio-demographics, faster growth in total height, leg length and particularly trunk length...

  5. Evaluating the Total Factor Productivity Growth in Manufacturing Industries of Iran (Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahideh Ahmadi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the total factor productivity changes for 23 main manufacturing industries (2-digit ISIC group and country's provinces using data envelopment analysis during 2005 to 2007. The results show 2.3% increase in the productivity of the whole sector (average over the studied period, while the productivity of the country's provinces decreases by 7.3%, in the same period. We find Food and Beverage products and Khuzestan province having the highest productivity growth. Non-optimal allocation of resources and using of old equipments are the most important drawbacks of productivity growth for 23 main ISIC groups and provinces. Finally estimation of the regression models by panel data method reveals the privatization and increasing of labor’s available capital having a significant effect on productivity growth.

  6. How fast is the growth of Total Cross Section at High Energies?

    CERN Document Server

    Fazal-e-Aleem, M; Sohail-Afzal, Tahir; Ayub-Faridi, M; Qadee-Afzal, M

    2003-01-01

    Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Colliders have special agenda for the measurements of the total cross sections at high energies giving us an opportunity to touch cosmic ray energies. Recent analyses of the cosmic ray data together with earlier experimental measurements at ISR and SPS gives us an insight about the behaviour of this important parameter at asymptotic energies. We will study the growth of total cross section at high energies in the light of various theoretical approaches with special reference to measurements at RHIC and LHC.

  7. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  8. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  9. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  10. Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

    2015-06-01

    Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal.

  11. Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saw, S

    1988-01-01

    "The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region.... The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...." excerpt

  12. Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

    2013-03-01

    Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  13. Assessment of bacterial growth and total organic carbon removal on granular activated carbon contactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, K; Maloney, S W; McElhaney, J; Suffet, I H; Pipes, W O

    1983-01-01

    The overall growth rate of bacteria on granular activated carbon (GAC) contactors at the Philadelphia Torresdale Water Treatment Pilot Plant facility was found to decrease until steady state was reached. The growth rate was found to fluctuate between 6.94 X 10(-3) and 8.68 X 10(-4) doublings per h. The microbiological removal of total organic carbon (TOC) was calculated by considering the GAC contactors as semiclosed continuous culture systems and using growth yield factors determined in laboratory experiments. After ozonation, the average TOC entering the contactors was 1,488 micrograms/liter, and the average effluent TOC was 497 micrograms/liter. Microbiological TOC removal was found to average 240 micrograms/liter on GAC contactors, which was not significantly different from microbiological TOC (220 micrograms/liter) removal across a parallel sand contactor where no adsorption took place. Thus, GAC did not appear to enhance biological TOC removal. Bacterial growth and maintenance was responsible for approximately 24% of the TOC removal on GAC under the conditions of this study. PMID:6639023

  14. Assessment of bacterial growth and total organic carbon removal on granular activated carbon contactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, K; Maloney, S W; McElhaney, J; Suffet, I H; Pipes, W O

    1983-09-01

    The overall growth rate of bacteria on granular activated carbon (GAC) contactors at the Philadelphia Torresdale Water Treatment Pilot Plant facility was found to decrease until steady state was reached. The growth rate was found to fluctuate between 6.94 X 10(-3) and 8.68 X 10(-4) doublings per h. The microbiological removal of total organic carbon (TOC) was calculated by considering the GAC contactors as semiclosed continuous culture systems and using growth yield factors determined in laboratory experiments. After ozonation, the average TOC entering the contactors was 1,488 micrograms/liter, and the average effluent TOC was 497 micrograms/liter. Microbiological TOC removal was found to average 240 micrograms/liter on GAC contactors, which was not significantly different from microbiological TOC (220 micrograms/liter) removal across a parallel sand contactor where no adsorption took place. Thus, GAC did not appear to enhance biological TOC removal. Bacterial growth and maintenance was responsible for approximately 24% of the TOC removal on GAC under the conditions of this study.

  15. Industry Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity Growth under Resources and Environmental Constraint in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Feng; Li, Ling; Xia, X. H.

    2012-01-01

    The growth of China's industry has been seriously depending on energy and environment. This paper attempts to apply the directional distance function and the Luenberger productivity index to measure the environmental efficiency, environmental total factor productivity, and its components at the level of subindustry in China over the period from 1999 to 2009 while considering energy consumption and emission of pollutants. This paper also empirically examines the determinants of efficiency and productivity change. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, the main sources of environmental inefficiency of China's industry are the inefficiency of gross industrial output value, the excessive energy consumption, and pollutant emissions. Secondly, the highest growth rate of environmental total factor productivity among the three industrial categories is manufacturing, followed by mining, and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water. Thirdly, foreign direct investment, capital-labor ratio, ownership structure, energy consumption structure, and environmental regulation have varying degrees of effects on the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity. PMID:23365517

  16. Industry Efficiency and Total Factor Productivity Growth under Resources and Environmental Constraint in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The growth of China's industry has been seriously depending on energy and environment. This paper attempts to apply the directional distance function and the Luenberger productivity index to measure the environmental efficiency, environmental total factor productivity, and its components at the level of subindustry in China over the period from 1999 to 2009 while considering energy consumption and emission of pollutants. This paper also empirically examines the determinants of efficiency and productivity change. The major findings are as follows. Firstly, the main sources of environmental inefficiency of China's industry are the inefficiency of gross industrial output value, the excessive energy consumption, and pollutant emissions. Secondly, the highest growth rate of environmental total factor productivity among the three industrial categories is manufacturing, followed by mining, and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water. Thirdly, foreign direct investment, capital-labor ratio, ownership structure, energy consumption structure, and environmental regulation have varying degrees of effects on the environmental efficiency and environmental total factor productivity.

  17. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  18. The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

    2014-03-01

    Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

  19. Semiphysiological versus Empirical Modelling of the Population Pharmacokinetics of Free and Total Cefazolin during Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Coen van Hasselt

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This work describes a first population pharmacokinetic (PK model for free and total cefazolin during pregnancy, which can be used for dose regimen optimization. Secondly, analysis of PK studies in pregnant patients is challenging due to study design limitations. We therefore developed a semiphysiological modeling approach, which leveraged gestation-induced changes in creatinine clearance (CrCL into a population PK model. This model was then compared to the conventional empirical covariate model. First, a base two-compartmental PK model with a linear protein binding was developed. The empirical covariate model for gestational changes consisted of a linear relationship between CL and gestational age. The semiphysiological model was based on the base population PK model and a separately developed mixed-effect model for gestation-induced change in CrCL. Estimates for baseline clearance (CL were 0.119 L/min (RSE 58% and 0.142 L/min (RSE 44% for the empirical and semiphysiological models, respectively. Both models described the available PK data comparably well. However, as the semiphysiological model was based on prior knowledge of gestation-induced changes in renal function, this model may have improved predictive performance. This work demonstrates how a hybrid semiphysiological population PK approach may be of relevance in order to derive more informative inferences.

  20. The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

  1. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Suyalatu; Deng Yan-Bin; Huang Yong-Chang

    2017-01-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network . (paper)

  2. SEIR Model of Rumor Spreading in Online Social Network with Varying Total Population Size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Suyalatu; Deng, Yan-Bin; Huang, Yong-Chang

    2017-10-01

    Based on the infectious disease model with disease latency, this paper proposes a new model for the rumor spreading process in online social network. In this paper what we establish an SEIR rumor spreading model to describe the online social network with varying total number of users and user deactivation rate. We calculate the exact equilibrium points and reproduction number for this model. Furthermore, we perform the rumor spreading process in the online social network with increasing population size based on the original real world Facebook network. The simulation results indicate that the SEIR model of rumor spreading in online social network with changing total number of users can accurately reveal the inherent characteristics of rumor spreading process in online social network. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11275017 and 11173028

  3. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  4. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  5. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  6. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    OpenAIRE

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-01-01

    An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

  7. Total Body Capacitance for Estimating Human Basal Metabolic Rate in an Egyptian Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Abdel-Mageed, Samir; I. Mohamed, Ehab

    2016-01-01

    Determining basal metabolic rate (BMR) is important for estimating total energy needs in the human being yet, concerns have been raised regarding the suitability of sex-specific equations based on age and weight for its calculation on an individual or population basis. It has been shown that body cell mass (BCM) is the body compartment responsible for BMR. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship between total body capacitance (TBC), which is considered as an expression for BCM, and BMR and to develop a formula for calculating BMR in comparison with widely used equations. Fifty healthy nonsmoking male volunteers [mean age (± SD): 24.93 ± 4.15 year and body mass index (BMI): 25.63 ± 3.59 kg/m2] and an equal number of healthy nonsmoking females matched for age and BMI were recruited for the study. TBC and BMR were measured for all participants using octopolar bioelectric impedance analysis and indirect calorimetry techniques, respectively. A significant regressing equation based on the covariates: sex, weight, and TBC for estimating BMR was derived (R=0.96, SEE=48.59 kcal, and P<0.0001), which will be useful for nutritional and health status assessment for both individuals and populations. PMID:27127453

  8. Beverage Consumption Habits in Italian Population: Association with Total Water Intake and Energy Intake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenza Mistura

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to investigate total water intake (TWI from water, beverages and foods among Italian adults and the elderly. Methods: Data of 2607 adults and the elderly, aged 18–75 years from the last national food consumption survey, INRAN-SCAI 2005-06, were used to evaluate the TWI. The INRAN-SCAI 2005-06 survey was conducted on a representative sample of 3323 individuals aged 0.1 to 97.7 years. A 3-day semi-structured diary was used for participants to record the consumption of all foods, beverages and nutritional supplements. Results: On average, TWI was 1.8 L for men and 1.7 L for women. More than 75% of women and 90% of men did not comply with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA Adequate Intake. The contribution of beverages to the total energy intake (EI was 6% for the total sample. Water was the most consumed beverage, followed by alcoholic beverages for men and hot beverages for women. Conclusion: According to the present results, adults and elderly Italians do not reach the adequate intake for water as suggested by the EFSA and by the national reference level of nutrient and energy intake. Data on water consumption should also be analyzed in single socio-demographic groups in order to identify sub-groups of the population that need more attention and to plan more targeted interventions.

  9. Total phenolic content, radical scavenging properties, and essential oil composition of Origanum species from different populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dambolena, José S; Zunino, María P; Lucini, Enrique I; Olmedo, Rubén; Banchio, Erika; Bima, Paula J; Zygadlo, Julio A

    2010-01-27

    The aim of this work was to compare the antiradical activity, total phenol content (TPC), and essential oil composition of Origanum vulgare spp. virens, Origanum x applii, Origanum x majoricum, and O. vulgare spp. vulgare cultivated in Argentina in different localities. The experiment was conducted in the research station of La Consulta (INTA-Mendoza), the research station of Santa Lucia (INTA-San Juan), and Agronomy Faculty of National University of La Pampa, from 2007 to 2008. The composition of the essential oils of oregano populations was independent of cultivation conditions. In total, 39 compounds were identified in essential oils of oregano from Argentina by means of GC-MS. Thymol and trans-sabinene hydrate were the most prominent compounds, followed by gamma-terpinene, terpinen-4-ol, and alpha-terpinene. O. vulgare vulgare is the only Origanum studied which is rich in gamma-terpinene. Among tested oregano, O. x majoricum showed the highest essential oil content, 3.9 mg g(-1) dry matter. The plant extract of O. x majoricum had greater total phenol content values, 19.36 mg/g dry weight, than the rest of oregano studied. To find relationships among TPC, free radical scavenging activity (FRSA), and climate variables, canonical correlations were calculated. The results obtained allow us to conclude that 70% of the TPC and FRSA variability can be explained by the climate variables (R(2) = 0.70; p = 8.3 x 10(-6)), the temperature being the most important climatic variable.

  10. Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

  11. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  12. The ocean blues. Navigating the course of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, D

    1996-01-01

    Oceans and their role in environmental balance are discussed in this article. Coastal waters within 200 miles from land are identified as providing over half the ocean's total biological productivity and supply of nearly all of the world's fish catch. Almost 3.6 billion people live in coastal areas or within 90 miles of coastal waters, which accounts for about 66% of world population. Coastal land areas account for about 8% of the earth's total land area. 8.3 billion people are expected by 2025 to live in coastal areas. 9 of the 10 largest cities in the world are located on coasts. 7 of the 10 largest cities in the US are coastal cities (54% of the US population or 142 million people). Almost all of the marine pollution is derived from land-based sources, such as sewage, nutrients, sediments, litter, and plastics. Mangroves in coastal waters have been reduced by about 50% to about 90,000 sq. miles worldwide. Global consumption of fish is responsible for depleting fish supplies and the loss of mangroves due to aquaculture of shrimp or other seafood. The US National Fisheries Service is cited for its report that 67 of the 156 fish stocks are overexploited. About 1 billion people, mostly in developing countries, rely on fish as their main food source. If imbalances in demand and supply continue, the rising price of fish and seafood will threaten the lives of about 1 billion or more people. Numerous international and national actions have been taken in order to protect supplies and reduce pollution. Sound resource management practices need to be instituted. Small and large fisheries can begin by reducing the 27 million tons of unintentional fish captures and by converting 29 million tons of fish used for animal feed into food for human consumption. Management of US coastal lands in most coastal states, with the exception of California and Rhode Island, is weak. Maryland has adopted a community-level approach for management of the Chesapeake Bay. Other environmental

  13. Geographically distinct Ceratophyllum demersum populations differ in growth, photosynthetic responses and phenotypic plasticity to nitrogen availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldgaard, Benita; Sorrell, Brian Keith; Olesen, Birgit

    2012-01-01

    from New Zealand (NZ) and a noninvasive population from Denmark (DK). The populations were compared with a focus on both morphological and physiological traits. The NZ population had higher relative growth rates (RGRs) and photosynthesis rates (Pmax) (range: RGR, 0.06–0.08 per day; Pmax, 200–395 µmol O......2 g–1 dry mass (DM) h–1) compared with the Danish population (range: RGR, 0.02–0.05 per day; Pmax, 88–169 µmol O2 g–1 DM h–1). The larger, faster-growing NZ population also showed higher plasticity than the DK population in response to nitrogen in traits important for growth. Hence, the observed...... differences in growth behaviour between the two populations are a result of genetic differences and differences in their level of plasticity. Here, we show that two populations of the same species from similar climates but different geographical areas can differ in several ecophysiological traits after growth...

  14. Allogeneic blood transfusion and prognosis following total hip replacement: a population-based follow up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Alma B; Mehnert, Frank; Overgaard, Søren

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Allogeneic red blood cell transfusion is frequently used in total hip replacement surgery (THR). However, data on the prognosis of transfused patients are sparse. In this study we compared the risk of complications following THR in transfused and non-transfused patients. METHODS......: A population-based follow-up study was performed using data from medical databases in Denmark. We identified 28,087 primary THR procedures performed from 1999 to 2007, from which we computed a propensity score for red blood cell transfusion based on detailed data on patient-, procedure-, and hospital......-related characteristics. We were able to match 2,254 transfused with 2,254 non-transfused THR patients using the propensity score. RESULTS: Of the 28,087 THR patients, 9,063 (32.3%) received at least one red blood cell transfusion within 8 days of surgery. Transfused patients had higher 90-day mortality compared...

  15. Evaluation of the contribution of smoking to total blood polonium-210 in Saudi population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shabana, E.I. E-mail: eshabana@kacst.edu.sa; Elaziz, M.A. Abd; Al-Arifi, M.N.; Al-Dhawailie, A.A.; Al-Bokari, M.M-A

    2000-01-01

    A preliminary study of {sup 210}Po concentrations in the blood of some smokers and nonsmokers is presented in order to evaluate the contribution of smoking to total blood {sup 210}Po in Saudi population. Blood samples were collected from 30 volunteers and analyzed by high resolution {alpha}-spectrometry using a radiochemical technique. The technique is based on the separation of polonium from other components of the sample by wet ashing with an HNO{sub 3}/H{sub 2}O{sub 2} oxidizing mixture and spontaneous deposition on a silver disc under the relevant conditions for {alpha}-particle counting. The results indicated that a significant fraction (about 30%) of blood {sup 210}Po is related to smoking.

  16. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  17. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  18. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  19. The hydrocarbon era, world population growth and oil use -- a continuing geological challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Townes, H.L.

    1993-01-01

    The world's use of oil, the relationship of world population growth to this use, and what the energy situation might be in the future is a challenge to the geologist. The earth's population doubled between 1930 and 1975 and a comparison of world petroleum use and population growth show similar upward curves. Of the annual fossil fuel resources used in the world, crude oil supplies over 40 percent of the total resources. Petroleum is a finite resource and a projection of world oil production indicates it will peak early in the 21st century. Assuming an ultimate recovery range of 2600 to 3000 billion barrels of oil, 750 billion barrels have already been produced, there are 1000 billion barrels in proven reserves, and 1000 billion barrels remaining to be discovered. The challenge to the geologist will be to find these hidden oil reserves. Recovering this 1000 billion barrels of new oil reserves will require large capital expenditures and, currently, only 60 percent of the capital needed to discover this oil is being spent. With the world's demand for oil increasing, world-wide exploration expenditures are actually decreasing. Simple economics indicates that the reason for this drop in expenditures is that the price of oil is too low to encourage investment. Low oil prices also discourage investment in the development of alternative fuels. There is plenty of oil now, but the world must look to the future and realize present usage rate cannot continue forever. 23 refs., 10 figs

  20. Dietary acrylamide exposure of the French population: results of the second French Total Diet Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirot, Véronique; Hommet, Frédéric; Tard, Alexandra; Leblanc, Jean-Charles

    2012-03-01

    Acrylamide is a heat-induced carcinogen compound that is found in some foods consequently to cooking or other thermal processes. In the second French Total Diet Study (TDS), acrylamide was analysed in 192 food samples collected in mainland France to be representative of the population diet and prepared "as consumed". Highest mean concentrations were found in potato chips/crisps (954 μg/kg), French fries and other fried potatoes (724 μg/kg), and salted biscuits other than potato chips (697 μg/kg). Exposure of general adult and child populations was assessed by combining analytical results with national consumption data. Mean acrylamide exposure was assessed to be 0.43±0.33 μg/kg of body weight (bw) per day for adults and 0.69±0.58 μg/kg bw/day for children. Although the exposure assessed is lower than in previous evaluations, the calculated margins of exposure, based on benchmark dose limits defined for carcinogenic effects, remain very low especially for young children (below 100 at the 95th percentile of exposure), indicating a health concern. It is therefore advisable to continue efforts in order to reduce dietary exposure to acrylamide. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Variations in growth, survival and carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) among Pinus pinaster populations of different geographic origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Isabel; Almeida, Maria Helena; Aguiar, Alexandre; Alía, Ricardo; David, Teresa Soares; Pereira, João Santos

    2008-10-01

    To evaluate differences in growth and adaptability of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.), we studied growth, polycyclism, needle tissue carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) as an estimate of water-use efficiency (WUE) and survival of seven populations at 10 years of age growing in a performance trial at a provenance test site in Escaroupim, Portugal. Six populations were from relatively high rainfall sites in Portugal and southwestern France (Atlantic group), and one population was from a more arid Mediterranean site in Spain. There were significant differences between some populations in total height, diameter at breast height, delta(13)C of bulk needle tissue, polycyclism and survival. A population from central Portugal (Leiria, on the Atlantic coast) was the tallest and had the lowest delta(13)C. Overall, the variation in delta(13)C was better explained by the mean minimum temperatures of the coldest month than by annual precipitation at the place of origin. Analyses of the relationships between delta(13)C and growth or survival revealed a distinct pattern for the Mediterranean population, with low delta(13)C (and WUE) associated with the lowest growth potential and reduced survival. There were significant negative correlations between delta(13)C and height or survival in the Atlantic group. Variation in polycyclism was correlated with annual precipitation at the place of origin. Some Atlantic populations maintained a high growth potential while experiencing moderate water stress. A detailed knowledge of the relationships between growth, survival and delta(13)C in contrasting environments will enhance our ability to select populations for forestry or conservation.

  2. Improvement in quality of lifesix months after primary total hip arthroplasty in a Pakistani population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubairi, Akbar Jaleel; Bin Mahmood, Syed Usman; Ali, Moiz; Noordin, Shahryar

    2016-10-01

    This prospective, cohort study was carried out to assess the improvement in quality of life of patients undergoing elective primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). It was conducted at the orthopaedic department of the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from June 2014 to May 2015, and comprised patients who had undergone THA. A total of 89 patients having a mean age of 41.5±12.0 years with a baseline core outcomes measure index (COMI)-hip score of > 3.5 were included. A decrease in COMI-hip score by >3 points six months post-operatively was considered improvement in quality of life. Patient satisfaction with restriction to squatting was assessed separately. The mean reduction in COMI-hip was 4.9±1.3 with 83(93%) patients experiencing significant improvement in quality of life. Age >50 years and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) level >III was significantly associated with no improvement in quality of life. Most patients were satisfied with their disability to squat irrespective of COMI-hip score. THA was found to be associated with significant improvement in quality of life and COMI-hip score was applicable in our population despite its inability to assess disability with restriction in squatting.

  3. Association of Coffee Consumption With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Among Nonwhite Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Song-Yi; Freedman, Neal D; Haiman, Christopher A; Le Marchand, Loïc; Wilkens, Lynne R; Setiawan, Veronica Wendy

    2017-08-15

    Coffee consumption has been associated with reduced risk for death in prospective cohort studies; however, data in nonwhites are sparse. To examine the association of coffee consumption with risk for total and cause-specific death. The MEC (Multiethnic Cohort), a prospective population-based cohort study established between 1993 and 1996. Hawaii and Los Angeles, California. 185 855 African Americans, Native Hawaiians, Japanese Americans, Latinos, and whites aged 45 to 75 years at recruitment. Outcomes were total and cause-specific mortality between 1993 and 2012. Coffee intake was assessed at baseline by means of a validated food-frequency questionnaire. 58 397 participants died during 3 195 484 person-years of follow-up (average follow-up, 16.2 years). Compared with drinking no coffee, coffee consumption was associated with lower total mortality after adjustment for smoking and other potential confounders (1 cup per day: hazard ratio [HR], 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.91]; 2 to 3 cups per day: HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.79 to 0.86]; ≥4 cups per day: HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.78 to 0.87]; P for trend coffee. Significant inverse associations were observed in 4 ethnic groups; the association in Native Hawaiians did not reach statistical significance. Inverse associations were also seen in never-smokers, younger participants (coffee was associated with lower risk for death in African Americans, Japanese Americans, Latinos, and whites. National Cancer Institute.

  4. Fetal and infant growth patterns associated with total and abdominal fat distribution in school-age children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gishti, O.; Gaillard, R.; Manniesing, R.; Abrahamse-Berkeveld, M.; Beek, E.M. van der; Heppe, D.H.M.; Steegers, E.A.P.; Hofman, A.; Duijts, L.; Durmus, B.u.; Jaddoe, V.W.

    2014-01-01

    Context: Higher infant growth rates are associated with an increased risk of obesity in later life. Objective: We examined the associations of longitudinally measured fetal and infant growth patterns with total and abdominal fat distribution in childhood. Design, Settings and participants:We

  5. [The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhein, E

    1994-08-25

    The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

  6. A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. Woodd

    1999-07-01

    Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

  7. [Total body composition in adult patients with growth hormone deficiency before and after its administration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, V; Krsek, M; Marek, J; Stĕpán, J; Malík, J

    2003-08-01

    Effect of growth hormone (GH) on the growth and development of children is generally known. Effects of GH in adults are favorable, though. The aim of the work was to verify effects of GH administration on body composition in adult patients with GH deficit (GHD). The authors examined 15 adult patients with GHD originated in 13 of them in adulthood and in two of them in childhood. Their mean age was 43.9 +/- 11.3 years, the mean body mass was 80.0 +/- 15.2 kg. The GH deficit was verified by the stimulation insulin tolerance test. For the period of 12 months, they were subcutaneously administered recombinant human GH in a substitution dose of 0.5 to 1.5 IU/m2 body surface/day. A stable substitution of the hormone was applied for the period of at least six months in all these patients provided any deficit of other hormones had not been demonstrated. The examination by whole-body dosimeter Lunar DPX-L was made in the patients before the GH treatment began and after 12 months of therapy. It enabled to determine the amount of lean body mass (LBM) and fatty mass. After 12 months of GH treatment the mean level of insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) was increased (P = 0.002). A statistically significant increase of total LBM (48.6 +/- 9.8 vs. 50.8 +/- 9.9 kg, P = 0.004) developed, the fatty mass did not change. Nine of these 15 patients were further followed and the administration of GH proceeded for six months. The densitometric examination was repeated, but no change of LBM was observed. The administration of GH was halted and after the period of 12 months the whole-body densitometric examination was done. The increase of LBM lasted. The amount of fat mass did not change, a decrease of fatty mass was observed after the GH administration ended. After 12 months of GH treatment there was also an increase of maximal output reached on bicycle ergometer (157.3 +/- 34.2 vs. 197.5 +/- 68.1 W, P = 0.006). A positive correlation between LBM and maximal output reached on bicycle

  8. Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r...

  9. Population Growth Rate: Teaching Guide. Measures of Progress Poster Kit Number 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    World Bank, Washington, DC.

    This teaching guide accompanies the Population Growth Rate poster kit which is designed to teach students about population growth differences between rich and poor nations and about what people in developing countries are doing to help improve their quality of life. The guide is designed for use with: (1) a poster map of the world providing social…

  10. Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, G.B.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.M.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Dasgupta–Heal–Solow–Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

  11. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  12. Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, James D

    2014-05-01

    Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits.

  13. Effect of growth stages on total phenolics content and antioxidant activity of Fumaria vaillantii L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Mehdizadeh*

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background and objectives: Plant extracts and their constituents are known to exert biological effects, especially antioxidant activity. Fumaria vaillantii (Fumariaceae has several therapeutic effects in traditional medicine. Antioxidants are able to protect the human body from oxidative damage connected to the reaction of free radicals. Synthetic antioxidants have toxic and carcinogenic effects on human health; therefore, their application has been limited. Thus, there has been an increasing interest in the natural antioxidant compounds to prevent the foods from deterioration. In this study, the antioxidant activity of F. vaillantii extracts at three stages of growth has been evaluated. Methods: The ethanol extracts from the aerial parts of the plants at different phenological stages were prepared and the total phenolics content was determined by Folin-Ciocalteu reagent. Also, the antioxidant activity were determined by three methods as 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH, ferric-ion reducing antioxidant power (FRAP and phosphomolybdenum complex tests. All experiments were carried out in triplicate, and data were subjected to ANOVA according to the SAS software. Results: Total phenolics content of vegetative, budding and flowering stages were 68.38, 71.11 and 56.42 mg GAE/g extract, respectively. Although flowering stage showed the highest antioxidant activity in phosphomolybdenum complex, in DPPH and FRAP methods, it decreased from vegetative to flowering stages. Conclusion: According to the results, the Iranian F. vaillantii extract from vegetative stage was a potential source of natural antioxidants for food and pharmaceutical industries that can be used in different industries.

  14. Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Mitigates Hematopoietic Toxicity After Lethal Total Body Irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Dunhua; Deoliveira, Divino; Kang, Yubin; Choi, Seung S. [Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Li, Zhiguo [Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Chao, Nelson J. [Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Immunology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Duke Cancer Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Chen, Benny J., E-mail: chen0032@mc.duke.edu [Duke Cancer Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States); Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (United States)

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: To investigate whether and how insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) mitigates hematopoietic toxicity after total body irradiation. Methods and Materials: BALB/c mice were irradiated with a lethal dose of radiation (7.5 Gy) and treated with IGF-1 at a dose of 100 μg/dose intravenously once a day for 5 consecutive days starting within 1 hour after exposure. Survival and hematopoietic recovery were monitored. The mechanisms by which IGF-1 promotes hematopoietic recovery were also studied by use of an in vitro culture system. Results: IGF-1 protected 8 of 20 mice (40%) from lethal irradiation, whereas only 2 of 20 mice (10%) in the saline control group survived for more than 100 days after irradiation. A single dose of IGF-1 (500 μg) was as effective as daily dosing for 5 days. Positive effects were noted even when the initiation of treatment was delayed as long as 6 hours after irradiation. In comparison with the saline control group, treatment with IGF-1 significantly accelerated the recovery of both platelets and red blood cells in peripheral blood, total cell numbers, hematopoietic stem cells, and progenitor cells in the bone marrow when measured at day 14 after irradiation. IGF-1 protected both hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells from radiation-induced apoptosis and cell death. In addition, IGF-1 was able to facilitate the proliferation and differentiation of nonirradiated and irradiated hematopoietic progenitor cells. Conclusions: IGF-1 mitigates radiation-induced hematopoietic toxicity through protecting hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells from apoptosis and enhancing proliferation and differentiation of the surviving hematopoietic progenitor cells.

  15. Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 Mitigates Hematopoietic Toxicity After Lethal Total Body Irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Dunhua; Deoliveira, Divino; Kang, Yubin; Choi, Seung S.; Li, Zhiguo; Chao, Nelson J.; Chen, Benny J.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether and how insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) mitigates hematopoietic toxicity after total body irradiation. Methods and Materials: BALB/c mice were irradiated with a lethal dose of radiation (7.5 Gy) and treated with IGF-1 at a dose of 100 μg/dose intravenously once a day for 5 consecutive days starting within 1 hour after exposure. Survival and hematopoietic recovery were monitored. The mechanisms by which IGF-1 promotes hematopoietic recovery were also studied by use of an in vitro culture system. Results: IGF-1 protected 8 of 20 mice (40%) from lethal irradiation, whereas only 2 of 20 mice (10%) in the saline control group survived for more than 100 days after irradiation. A single dose of IGF-1 (500 μg) was as effective as daily dosing for 5 days. Positive effects were noted even when the initiation of treatment was delayed as long as 6 hours after irradiation. In comparison with the saline control group, treatment with IGF-1 significantly accelerated the recovery of both platelets and red blood cells in peripheral blood, total cell numbers, hematopoietic stem cells, and progenitor cells in the bone marrow when measured at day 14 after irradiation. IGF-1 protected both hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells from radiation-induced apoptosis and cell death. In addition, IGF-1 was able to facilitate the proliferation and differentiation of nonirradiated and irradiated hematopoietic progenitor cells. Conclusions: IGF-1 mitigates radiation-induced hematopoietic toxicity through protecting hematopoietic stem cells and progenitor cells from apoptosis and enhancing proliferation and differentiation of the surviving hematopoietic progenitor cells

  16. National Incidence of Patient Safety Indicators in the Total Hip Arthroplasty Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanenbaum, Joseph E; Knapik, Derrick M; Wera, Glenn D; Fitzgerald, Steven J

    2017-09-01

    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services use the incidence of patient safety indicators (PSIs) to determine health care value and hospital reimbursement. The national incidence of PSI has not been quantified in the total hip arthroplasty (THA) population, and it is unknown if patient insurance status is associated with PSI incidence after THA. All patients in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) who underwent THA in 2013 were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The incidence of PSI was determined using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, diagnosis code algorithms published by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The association of insurance status and the incidence of PSI during the inpatient episode was determined by comparing privately insured and Medicare patients with Medicaid/self-pay patients using a logistic regression model that controlled for patient demographics, patient comorbidities, and hospital characteristics. In 2013, the NIS included 68,644 hospitalizations with primary THA performed during the inpatient episode. During this period, 429 surgically relevant PSI were recorded in the NIS. The estimated national incidence rate of PSI after primary THA was 0.63%. In our secondary analysis, the privately insured cohort had significantly lower odds of experiencing one or more PSIs relative to the Medicaid/self-pay cohort (odds ratio, 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.76). The national incidence of PSI among THA patients is relatively low. However, primary insurance status is associated with the incidence of one or more PSIs after THA. As value-based payment becomes more widely adopted in the United States, quality benchmarks and penalty thresholds need to account for these differences in risk-adjustment models to promote and maintain access to care in the underinsured population. Copyright

  17. A decrease in total bilirubin predicted hyper-LDL cholesterolemia in a health screening population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Eiji

    2014-08-01

    To investigate cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between serum total bilirubin (TB) and LDL cholesterol. It is a retrospective observational study. Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between TB and hyper-LDL cholesterolemia were investigated in a health screening population. Odds ratios (ORs) of coexisting hyper-LDL cholesterolemia for TB were calculated in 3,866 subjects, Spearman's correlation coefficients between baseline TB and LDL cholesterol at baseline and after 4 years were calculated in 1,735 subjects who did not use antihyperlipidemic drugs and hazard ratios (HRs) of incident hyper-LDL cholesterolemia for TB were calculated in 1,992 followed subjects. The ORs (p values) of coexisting hyper-LDL cholesterolemia for each 1 SD increase in TB was 1.04 (0.998) adjusted for sex, age, smoking, LDL cholesterol and other confounders. Spearman's correlation coefficients (p values) between baseline TB and LDL cholesterol at baseline and after 4 years and changes in LDL cholesterol were -0.026 (0.271), -0.078 (0.001) and -0.062 (0.010), respectively. Among 1,992 followed subjects, 481 developed hyper-LDL cholesterolemia during 4 years (60.4 per 1,000 person-years). The HRs (95% confidence intervals; p values) of incident hyper-LDL cholesterolemia for each 1 SD increase in TB was 0.86 (0.77-0.96; 0.006) adjusted for sex, age, smoking, LDL cholesterol, body mass index, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, fasting glucose and other confounders. The quintiles of TB were significantly associated with the incident hyper-LDL cholesterolemia adjusted for the above covariates (p for trend = 0.008). A decrease in TB predicted incident hyper-LDL cholesterolemia in a health screening population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Differences in Townsend's chipmunk populations between second- and old-growth forests in western Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.K. Rosenberg; R.G. Anthony

    1993-01-01

    Because Townsend's chipmunks (Tomias townsendii) may be important in maintaining natural ecosystem processes in forests in the central Oregon Cascade Range, we compared their population characteristics in young second-growth and old-growth forests. We live-trapped Townsend's chipmunks in 5 young (30-60 yr old) second-growth and 5 old-...

  19. A system dynamics feedback control model study of population of "India 2001" and policies for stabilizing growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, M K; Janahanlal, P S

    1978-06-01

    A mathematical population model is presented and diagrammed. The model is a nonlinear, higher order, self-regulating, goal-seeking system. In other words, the model treats the population system like a biological system which has positive and negative feedbacks. The model incorporates the effects of important economic factors that influence human birth and death rates. It calculates the total population size, which is a determinant of resource usage. It also indicates the demographic response, through a changing birth and death rate, to a changing resource supply. The model is illustrated with Indian population data, disaggregated by age into 15 levels each of which is, in turn, divided into 4 income levels. The effect on population growth of various alternative population policies is analyzed with the goal of stabilizing the population growth quickly without causing undue hardship. Different computer runs of the model are conducted, using different levels of family planning practice, different ages at marriage, and different distributions of income throughout the country. The policy which would result in the lowest population for the year 2001 is 1 in which family planning acceptance levels would increase from 15% in 1975 to 60% in 1980 and 100% from 1990 on. However, there is widespread opposition to this policy. It is felt that a much slower rise in family planning acceptance would be a more acceptable policy for stabilizing population in India.

  20. Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

    OpenAIRE

    Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

  1. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-01-01

    This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

  2. Population Growth, Available Resources, and Quality of Life: China's Post-Reform Economic Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tim Futing Liao; Hua Qin

    2012-01-01

    Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem- porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previ- ous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.

  3. Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

    1988-01-01

    Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.

  4. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  5. Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca J Laver

    Full Text Available Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis. The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

  6. Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

    2012-01-01

    Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

  7. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  8. Elephant population growth in Kruger National Park, South Africa, under a landscape management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M. Ferreira

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available South African National Parks (SANParks manage landscapes rather than numbers of elephants (Loxodonta africana to mitigate the effects that elephants may have on biodiversity, tourism and stakeholder conservation values associated with protected areas. This management philosophy imposes spatial variability of critical resources on elephants. Restoration of such ecological processes through less intensive management predicts a reduction in population growth rates from the eras of intensive management. We collated aerial survey data since 1995 and conducted an aerial total count using a helicopter observation platform during 2015. A minimum of 17 086 elephants were resident in the Kruger National Park (KNP in 2015, growing at 4.2% per annum over the last generation of elephants (i.e. 12 years, compared to 6.5% annual population growth noted during the intensive management era ending in 1994. This may come from responses of elephants to density and environmental factors manifested through reduced birth rates and increased mortality rates. Authorities should continue to evaluate the demographic responses of elephants to landscape scale interventions directed at restoring the limitation of spatial variance in resource distribution on elephant spatiotemporal dynamics and the consequences that may have for other conservation values. Conservation implications: Conservation managers should continue with surveying elephants in a way that allows the extraction of key variables. Such variables should focus on measures that reflect on how theory predicts elephants should respond to management interventions.

  9. Effect of Population Growths on Water Resources in Dubai Emirate, United Arab Emirates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Nuaimi, Hind S.; Murad, Ahmed A.

    The Emirate of Dubai is situated to the north of the United Arab Emirates on the Arabian Gulf. Due to its political stability and strong economy, people are continuing to immigrate to Dubai and this will enhance the stress on water resources. Therefore, demands for water will increase significantly in Dubai. The scarcity of water resources in Dubai is evident. The total production of water in the Dubai has increased to 61,478 million gallons in 2004. About 58,808 million gallons has been produced from the desalination plants in 2004. The production of freshwater from the main aquifers is about 2763 and 2655 million gallons for the years 2003 and 2004, respectively. The reduction of groundwater in 2004 may be ascribed to the low amount of rainfall and to the decreasing capacity of the aquifers. Treated wastewater is another source for water whose quantity was increased from 72 m3 to about 107 m3 in 2000 and 2004, respectively. The increase in water production in Dubai to meet the demand corresponds to population growth and this might be attributed to the political stability and strong economy. Moreover, major problems related to the water resources have appeared and affected the availability of freshwater in Dubai. These problems include: lowering water level and groundwater deterioration. This paper is aimed to assess the impacts of population growth on water resources in Dubai.

  10. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  11. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustino Martínez-Antonio

    Full Text Available It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX, has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  12. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Antonio, Agustino; Lomnitz, Jason G; Sandoval, Santiago; Aldana, Maximino; Savageau, Michael A

    2012-01-01

    It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX), has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  13. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  14. Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

    1998-11-01

    We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

  15. Serum Levels Of Free And Total Insulin-Like Growth Factor (IGF)-1 And IGF Binding Protein-3 In Normal And Growth Hormone Deficient Children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shousha, M.A.; Soliman, S.E.T.; Hafez, M.H.

    2006-01-01

    Serum levels of total insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) reflect the endogenous GH secretion in healthy children, which makes them good diagnostic markers for screening growth hormone deficiency (GHD) in short children, although some controversy still exists. Only a minor fraction of the total IGF-1 circulates in its free form, which is believed to be the biologically active form. Serum levels of free IGF-1, total IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were measured in 144 healthy children (72 boys and 72 girls, aged from 0 to 16 years) and in 12 pre-pubertal GH deficient (GHD) children to study the correlation between the age and free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels. In healthy subjects (both sexes), serum free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels were low in infancy, increasing during puberty and declining thereafter. Free IGF-1 in serum occupied about 0.97-1.45 % of the total IGF-1 values, and the ratios of free IGF-1 to total IGF-1 were significantly increased in the pubertal age groups than in the pre-pubertal age groups. Serum levels of free IGF-1 showed significant positive correlation with those of total IGF-I and IGFBP-3. Serum free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels in patients with GHD were decreased significantly with increasing the degree of hypopituitarism. These observations suggest that the increase in serum free IGF-1 level during puberty was caused by a dramatic increase in total IGF-1 rather than IGFBP-3. Also, high levels of these hormones may play an important role in pubertal growth spurt and may become a useful tool for diagnosing GHD and predicting growth response to long term GH therapy

  16. Allogeneic blood transfusion and prognosis following total hip replacement: a population-based follow up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Overgaard Soren

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Allogeneic red blood cell transfusion is frequently used in total hip replacement surgery (THR. However, data on the prognosis of transfused patients are sparse. In this study we compared the risk of complications following THR in transfused and non-transfused patients. Methods A population-based follow-up study was performed using data from medical databases in Denmark. We identified 28,087 primary THR procedures performed from 1999 to 2007, from which we computed a propensity score for red blood cell transfusion based on detailed data on patient-, procedure-, and hospital-related characteristics. We were able to match 2,254 transfused with 2,254 non-transfused THR patients using the propensity score. Results Of the 28,087 THR patients, 9,063 (32.3% received at least one red blood cell transfusion within 8 days of surgery. Transfused patients had higher 90-day mortality compared with matched non-transfused patients: the adjusted OR was 2.2 (95% confidence interval (CI: 1.2-3.8. Blood transfusion was also associated with increased odds of pneumonia (OR 2.1; CI: 1.2-3.8, whereas the associations with cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events (OR 1.4; CI: 0.9-2.2 and venous thromboembolism (OR 1.2; CI: 0.7-2.1 did not reach statistical significance. The adjusted OR of reoperation due to infection was 0.6 (CI: 0.1-2.9. Conclusions Red blood cell transfusion was associated with an adverse prognosis following primary THR, in particular with increased odds of death and pneumonia. Although the odds estimates may partly reflect unmeasured bias due to blood loss, they indicate the need for careful assessment of the risk versus benefit of transfusion even in relation to routine THR procedures.

  17. Modelling breast cancer tumour growth for a stable disease population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isheden, Gabriel; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models of breast cancer tumour progression have been used to further our knowledge of the natural history of breast cancer, to evaluate mammography screening in terms of mortality, to estimate overdiagnosis, and to estimate the impact of lead-time bias when comparing survival times between screen detected cancers and cancers found outside of screening programs. Multi-state Markov models have been widely used, but several research groups have proposed other modelling frameworks based on specifying an underlying biological continuous tumour growth process. These continuous models offer some advantages over multi-state models and have been used, for example, to quantify screening sensitivity in terms of mammographic density, and to quantify the effect of body size covariates on tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. As of yet, however, the continuous tumour growth models are not sufficiently developed and require extensive computing to obtain parameter estimates. In this article, we provide a detailed description of the underlying assumptions of the continuous tumour growth model, derive new theoretical results for the model, and show how these results may help the development of this modelling framework. In illustrating the approach, we develop a model for mammography screening sensitivity, using a sample of 1901 post-menopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

  18. Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yun-Sik; Lee, Shin-Jae; An, Hongseok; Donatelli, Richard E; Kim, Soo-Hwan

    2012-11-01

    Understanding the timing and length of the growth spurt of Class III prognathic patients is fundamental to the strategy of interceptive orthopedic orthodontics as well as to the timing of orthognathic surgery. Consequently, this study was undertaken to determine whether there are any significant differences in the stature growth pattern of Class III subjects compared with non-Class III subjects and the general population. Twelve-year longitudinal stature growth data were collected for 402 randomly selected adolescents in the general population, 55 Class III mandibular prognathic patients, and 37 non-Class III patients. The growth data were analyzed by using the traditional linear interpolation method and nonlinear growth functions. The 6 stature growth parameters were measured: age at takeoff, stature at takeoff, velocity at takeoff, age at peak height velocity, stature at peak height velocity, and velocity at peak height velocity. Comparisons in the stature growth parameters and 15 cephalometric variables among the general population, Class III subjects, and non-Class III subjects were made with multivariate analysis. Patients with Class III prognathism did not have different growth parameters compared with Class II subjects or the general population. This study does not allow meaningful conclusions with regard to the relationship of mandibular size and stature growth pattern. The application of nonlinear growth curves vs the traditional linear interpolation method was also discussed. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Influence of lake surface area and total phosphorus on annual bluegill growth in small impoundments of central Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Cecil A.; Sundmark, Aaron P.

    2017-01-01

    The relationships between environmental variables and the growth rates of fishes are important and rapidly expanding topics in fisheries ecology. We used an informationtheoretic approach to evaluate the influence of lake surface area and total phosphorus on the age-specific growth rates of Lepomis macrochirus (Bluegill) in 6 small impoundments in central Georgia. We used model averaging to create composite models and determine the relative importance of the variables within each model. Results indicated that surface area was the most important factor in the models predicting growth of Bluegills aged 1–4 years; total phosphorus was also an important predictor for the same age-classes. These results suggest that managers can use water quality and lake morphometry variables to create predictive models specific to their waterbody or region to help develop lake-specific management plans that select for and optimize local-level habitat factors for enhancing Bluegill growth.

  20. Daily total physical activity level and total cancer risk in men and women: results from a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Manami; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Kurahashi, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2008-08-15

    The impact of total physical activity level on cancer risk has not been fully clarified, particularly in non-Western, relatively lean populations. The authors prospectively examined the association between daily total physical activity (using a metabolic equivalents/day score) and subsequent cancer risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. A total of 79,771 general-population Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 1995-1999 were followed for total cancer incidence (4,334 cases) through 2004. Compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, increased daily physical activity was associated with a significantly decreased risk of cancer in both sexes. In men, hazard ratios for the second, third, and highest quartiles were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.07), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.96), respectively (p for trend = 0.005); in women, hazard ratios were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.05), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.97), respectively (p for trend = 0.007). The decreased risk was more clearly observed in women than in men, especially among the elderly and those who regularly engaged in leisure-time sports or physical exercise. By site, decreased risks were observed for cancers of the colon, liver, and pancreas in men and for cancer of the stomach in women. Increased daily physical activity may be beneficial in preventing cancer in a relatively lean population.

  1. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  2. Population structure and growth of polydorid polychaetes that infest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Polydorid polychaetes can infest cultured abalone thereby reducing productivity. In order to effectively control these pests, their reproductive biology must be understood. The population dynamics and reproduction of polydorids infesting abalone Haliotis midae from two farms in South Africa is described using a ...

  3. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  4. Population Growth Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) on Tomato Plant Using Organic Substrate and Biofertilizers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamadi, P; Razmjou, J; Naseri, B; Hassanpour, M

    2017-01-01

    The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is a devastating pest associated with tomato. In this study, effects of tomato plants treated with vermicompost (20, 40, and 60%), humic fertilizer (2, 4 and 6 g/kg soil) and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (Pseudomonas fluorescens and Bacillus subtilis) were investigated on the life table parameters of T. absoluta in a growth chamber at 25 ± 2 °C, 65 ± 5% RH, and 16:8 (L:D) h. Significant differences were found for the total developmental time, fecundity, and oviposition period of T. absoluta on the treatments tested. The net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm), finite rate of increase (λ), mean generation time (T), and doubling time (DT) of T. absoluta were significantly different among treatments tested. We found that in all vermicompost, humic fertilizer and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria treatments, values of R0, rm, and λ were lower than control treatment. However, the lowest values of these parameters were obtained on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost. Furthermore, T. absoluta had longest T and DT values on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer treatment. Data obtained showed that the addition of 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost to the growing soil reduced T. absoluta populations in tomato cultures. In addition, these levels of fertilizers improved growth parameters of tomato seedlings (plant height, wet weight, and dry weight) compared with other treatments. These results could be useful in improving the sustainable management of the moth. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  5. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity

  6. Current and Future Dynamics of the Red-Cockaded Woodpecker Population Inhabiting the Savannah River National Environmental Research Park: Managing For Population Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walters, J.R.; Taylor, T.B.; Daniels, S.J.; Crowder, L.B.; Pridd, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    Research aimed to study the dynamics of the SRS population of Red-Cockaded woodpecker and compare to those of other populations to identify factors limiting population growth; recruitment clusters were evaluated to determine what properties of individual cavity trees, surrounding habitat and the surrounding landscape might limit occupancy through natural dispersal. A spatial simulation model was used to project expected dispersal rates and population growth under current conditions and compare those estimates to observed dispersal and population growth. Red cockaded woodpecker populations at SRS are stable considering size. Research reveals that closer placement of recruitment clusters to active territories would produce higher growth rates while decreasing management intensity.

  7. Serum levels of free and total insulin-link growth factor (IGF)-1 and (IGF) binding protein-3 in normal and growth hormone deficient children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shousha, M.A.; Soliman, S.E.T.; Hafez, H.M.

    2008-01-01

    Serum levels of total insulin-like growth factor- 1 (IGF-1) and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) reflect endogenous GH secretion in healthy children, which makes them good diagnostic markers for screening GH deficiency (GHD) in short children, although some controversy still exists. Only a minor fraction of the total IGF-1 circulates in its free form, which is believed to be the biologically active form. Serum levels of free IGF-1, total IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were measured in 144 healthy children (72 boys and 72 girls, aged from 0 to 16 years) and in 12 prepubertal GH. deficient (GHD) children to study correlation between the age and free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels. In healthy subjects (both sexes), serum free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels were low in infancy, increasing during puberty and declining thereafter. Free IGF-1 in serum occupied about 0.97. 1.45 % of the total IGF-1 values, and the ratios of free IGF-1 to total IGF-1 were significantly increased in the pubertal age groups than in the prepubertal age groups. Serum levels of free IGF-1 showed significant positive correlation with those of total IGF-I and IGFBP-3. Serum free IGF-1, total IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels in patients with GHD decreased significantly with increasing degree of hypopituitarism. These observations suggest that the increase in serum free IGF-1 level during puberty was caused by a dramatic increase in total IGF-1 rather than IGFBP-3. Also, high levels of these hormones may play an important role in pubertal growth spurt and may become a useful tool for diagnosing GHD and predicting growth response to long term GH therapy

  8. [Population development and economic growth. A simulation analysis for Switzerland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, C; Straubhaar, T

    1996-01-01

    "A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences....However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly--[which] also means a higher retirement age--and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  9. A tale of three regions : influence of highway investments on population and traffic growth in Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    To what extent may highway investments shape population growth and land development? To answer this question, three decades of data were examined in the Virginia locations of Fairfax County, Spotsylvania County, and Newport News. In each location, a ...

  10. Circulating Total Bilirubin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunutsor, Setor K.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of circulating total bilirubin and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a new prospective study and to determine whether adding information on total bilirubin values to established cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD

  11. Some socio-economic aspects of population growth in the USSR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simchera, V

    1974-01-01

    This summarizes population trends in the U.S.S.R. since the early 19 00's. On August 9, 1973, the population topped 250 million, almost precisely double that of Russia at the time of the 1st general census in 1897. Since 1922 it had increased by more than 84%. Russia has suffered more population loss in wars than any other country in modern times. The First World War, the Civil War, and the Second World War took a toll of more than 30 million, more than 20 million during the Second World War alone. The extent of these loses can be judged from the following: between 1897 and 1913 the population of Russia increased at the rate of 1.55% per annum or 34.6 million; if this had continued the population would have been at least 182.8 million by the end of 1922. As it was, the population was 136.1 million by 1922 and the hypothetical 182.8 million was not reached until 1952. More than 4/5 of today's population have been born since the October Revolution. Only 43 million were born before the revolution and only 7.5 were born in the last century. The economic base has grown much more rapidly than the population. For the period 1940-1972 the population increased 1.27 times, national income 9.51 times, fixed assets, 8.76 times, industrial production, 13.65 times, agricultural output, 2.14 times, and capital investment 14.52 times. The birthrate has been falling since World War 1 but total population growth has increased steadily. Birthrates have declined from 45.5/1000 in 1913 to 17.8/1000 in 1972 and a slight upturn is seen. It is expected that the birthrate will continue to increase slightly, then stabilize. Much of the population increase has come from significantly reduced mortality rates. 1st and 2nd children now account for 71% of all births. Family allowances, child care, free health care, and other social benefits encourage births while high employment levels for women, a shortage of men in the marriageable age ranges, and late marriages tend to depress the birthrate

  12. Total mortality by transferrin saturation levels: two general population studies and a metaanalysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ellervik, Christina; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2011-01-01

    There is evidence for increased mortality in patients with clinically overt hereditary hemochromatosis. Whether increased transferrin saturation (TS), as a proxy for iron overload is associated with increased mortality in the general population is largely unknown.......There is evidence for increased mortality in patients with clinically overt hereditary hemochromatosis. Whether increased transferrin saturation (TS), as a proxy for iron overload is associated with increased mortality in the general population is largely unknown....

  13. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian; Laudien, Jü rgen; Jantzen, Carin; Hä ussermann, Verena; Fö rsterra, Gü nter

    2013-01-01

    -57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass

  14. Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

  15. Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

  16. Population studies of echinoderms and growth and mortality of sea cucumbers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebert, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following studies: methods of collecting sea cucumbers; determination of growth rates of plates of the calcareous ring; use of growth parameters and a length-frequency distribution to estimate mortality and population turnover; movement of materials through the atoll ecosystem; and autoradiographic studies on spines of sea urchins

  17. Do social grants contribute to the jobless population growth in the former South African homelands?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Geyer, H

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available migration. A possible reason could be the high level of dependency on social grants in the former homelands. The article analyses population growth rates, economic growth rates and the ratio of social grant recipients within former homeland settlements...

  18. Intrauterine growth standards: a cross-sectional study in a population of Nigerian newborns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olugbenga A. Mokuolu

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to define an intrauterine growth curve for a population of Nigerian newborn babies. A cross-sectional observational study design was adopted. Weight, length and head circumference were all measured in consecutive singleton deliveries at the University of Ilorin Teaching Hospital over a 3-year period. Gestational age (GA of the babies was estimated from the last menstrual period or first trimester ultrasound. The estimates obtained were clinically validated using the Ballard score. Mean birth weights and percentiles of the weight, length and head circumferences for the respective GA were estimated using the SPSS 15 software package. A total of 5273 babies were recruited for the study with GA ranging from 25-44 weeks. Comparison of the mean birth weights of the various GA with the data from Denver, Colorado, showed that Nigerian babes tended to weigh less at the early GA, although these differences were not statistically significant. Between 26-36 weeks, the average weights of both sexes were similar; however, beyond this time point there was a consistent increase in the average weight of the males over the female babies. Growth curves for Nigerian newborn babies were generated and showed that the mean birth weight of Nigerian preterm babies was lighter than that of babies in Colorado. The impact of these differences on the classification of newborns will require further evaluation.

  19. Growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign population in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Cortina

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The dramatic growth of international immigration in Spain during the last decade has considerably increased the number of marriages with at least one foreign national. Between 1989 and 2004, the proportion of these marriages increased from 4% to12%, totalling 25.618 unions in 2004. However, marriage patterns of foreign nationals have attracted little attention among researcher spartly because of the small number of cases that were available until recently. Within this context, this paper examines the growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign populationin Spain, compared to those of only Spanish nationals, taking into account the age at marriage, type of union (religious or civil,first and later order of marriages, and degree of endogamy. We use microdata from the Spanish vital statistics on marriages (Movimiento Natural de la Población between 1989 and 2004. Results show that marriages of foreign population in Spain, particularly those that involve one Spanish partner, present some distinct characteristics, in particular associated with gender, in contrast to those marriages that only involve Spanish nationals.

  20. Flow cytometry total cell counts : A field study assessing microbiological water quality and growth in unchlorinated drinking water distribution systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, G.; Van der Mark, E.J.; Verberk, J.Q.; Van Dijk, J.C.

    2013-01-01

    e objective of this study was to evaluate the application of flow cytometry total cell counts (TCCs) as a parameter to assess microbial growth in drinking water distribution systems and to determine the relationships between different parameters describing the biostability of treated water. A

  1. Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vörösmarty, C J; Green, P; Salisbury, J; Lammers, R B

    2000-07-14

    The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

  2. The Importance of Human Ecology at the Threshold of the Next Millennium: How Can Population Growth Be Stopped?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nentwig, W.

    Ecology is defined as the set of complex interactions between the biotic and abiotic environments. Human ecology concerns principally the population ecology "only" of Homo sapiens, but it also includes all aspects of global ecology because humans are the most important species. Human demography is characterized by a recent decline in mortality and fertility rates. These demographic transitions have largely been completed in industrialized countries, but not in the 140 developing countries. Approximately 100 countries are following the same demographic pattern as industrialized countries, however with a time delay of several generations. China has effectively reduced its population increase by means that would be unacceptable in Western democracies. Some 44 developing countries still show increasing population growth and no detectable demographic transition in birth rate. Thus one part of the world shows limited (and, in the long run, shrinking) population growth, and another continues with a strong increase. All populations are limited in their development by their sustainability by their environment, for example, food and energy resources, and the extent of pollution which the use of these resources produces. It is argued that in the case of human population the limits of sustainability have already been reached with the 6 billion humans alive today, since at least 20% of these suffer from hunger, natural resources are overexploited, and biodiversity is threatened. In the coming 200years it is more likely that the total population will substantially oscillate rather than approach the predicted 12 billion. The most important goal of human ecology should therefore be to slow population growth as far as possible.

  3. "Peer Review: Nonroad (NR) Updates to Population Growth, Compression Ignition (CI) Criteria, Toxic Emission Factors and Speciation Profiles"

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report focuses on the methodology for estimating growth in NR engine populations as used in the MOVES201X-NONROAD emission inventory model. MOVES NR growth rates start with base year engine populations and estimate growth in the populations of NR engines, while applying cons...

  4. Total Saponin from Root of Actinidia valvata Dunn Inhibits Hepatoma 22 Growth and Metastasis In Vivo by Suppression Angiogenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Yin Zheng

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The root of Actinidia valvata dunn has been widely used in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, proved to be beneficial for a longer and better life in China. In present work, total saponin from root of Actinidia valvata Dunn (TSAVD was extracted, and its effects on hepatoma H22-based mouse in vivo were observed. Primarily transplanted hypodermal hepatoma H22-based mice were used to observe TSAVD effect on tumor growth. The microvessel density (MVD, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF, basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF are characterized factors of angiogenesis, which were compared between TSAVD-treated and control groups. Antimetastasis effect on experimental pulmonary metastasis hepatoma mice was also observed in the study. The results demonstrated that TSAVD can effectively inhibit HCC growth and metastasis in vivo, inhibit the formation of microvessel, downregulate expressions of VEGF and bFGF, and retrain angiogenesis of hepatoma 22 which could be one of the reasons.

  5. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  7. Effect of Portulaca oleracea extracts on growth performance and microbial populations in ceca of broilers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, X H; He, X; Yang, X F; Zhong, X H

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Portulaca oleracea extracts on growth performance and microbial populations in the ceca of broilers. A total of 120 one-day-old broilers were randomly divided into 3 groups. Portulaca oleracea extracts were added to diets at 0.2 and 0.4% (wt/wt; POL-0.2, POL-0.4), respectively. The control (CON) group was administered with no P. oleracea extract supplementation. Body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded every 2 wk. On d 28 and 42, the cecal contents were collected and assayed for Escherichia coli, Lactobacillus, and Bifidobacterium populations. Additionally, the pH of the ileum and cecum was measured. The results showed that both on d 28 and 42 BW gain of P. oleracea extract supplementation groups was significantly higher, whereas the feed conversion ratio was lower (P < 0.05) compared with CON. On d 28 and 42, significantly (P < 0.05) fewer E. coli were recovered from ceca of broilers provided with the POL-0.2 diet than from broilers provided with the control diet. The quantities of Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium of POL-0.2 were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than CON. Results showed P. oleracea extracts have no distinct influence on intestinal pH. These data suggest that P. oleracea extract supplementation significantly altered the cecal bacterial community without affecting the intestinal pH.

  8. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Murray P

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

  9. Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

  10. Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

    2005-01-01

    We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

  11. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  12. Transferrin saturation ratio and risk of total and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Stack, A G

    2014-08-01

    The transferrin saturation (TSAT) ratio is a commonly used indicator of iron deficiency and iron overload in clinical practice but precise relationships with total and cardiovascular mortality are unclear.

  13. COMPARISON OF ESCHERICHIA COLI, TOTAL COLIFORM, AND FECAL COLIFORM POPULATIONS AS INDICATORS OF WASTEWATER TREATMENT EFFICIENCY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escherichia coli, total coliform, and fecal coliform data were collected from two wastewater treatment facilities, a subsurface constructed wetlands, and the receiving stream. Results are presented from individual wastewater treatment process streams, final effluent and river sit...

  14. Multiplex ready flow cytometric immunoassay for total insulin like growth factor 1 in serum of cattle

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremer, M.G.E.G.; Smits, N.G.E.; Haasnoot, W.; Nielen, M.W.F.

    2010-01-01

    The European Union has banned the use of recombinant bovine somatotropins (rbST, growth hormones) to increase milk yield in dairy cattle. As direct detection of rbST in serum is problematic, methods based on the detection of changes in multiple rbST-dependent biomarkers have high potential for

  15. Effect of road side dust pollution on the growth and total chlorophyll ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-02-25

    Feb 25, 2014 ... activities and traffic congestion contributes most of air pollution problems, resulting in damage to the plants growth. Therefore, the present work was mainly designed to analyze the effects of air born-dust pollution, dom- nantly presented by automobile, industrial pollution and microclimate on physiology and ...

  16. Bacterial population in intestines of the black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon under different growth stages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wanilada Rungrassamee

    Full Text Available Intestinal bacterial communities in aquaculture have been drawn to attention due to potential benefit to their hosts. To identify core intestinal bacteria in the black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon, bacterial populations of disease-free shrimp were characterized from intestines of four developmental stages (15-day-old post larvae (PL15, 1- (J1, 2- (J2, and 3-month-old (J3 juveniles using pyrosequencing, real-time PCR and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE approaches. A total of 25,121 pyrosequencing reads (reading length = 442±24 bases were obtained, which were categorized by barcode for PL15 (7,045 sequences, J1 (3,055 sequences, J2 (13,130 sequences and J3 (1,890 sequences. Bacteria in the phyla Bacteroides, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria were found in intestines at all four growth stages. There were 88, 14, 27, and 20 bacterial genera associated with the intestinal tract of PL15, J1, J2 and J3, respectively. Pyrosequencing analysis revealed that Proteobacteria (class Gammaproteobacteria was a dominant bacteria group with a relative abundance of 89% for PL15 and 99% for J1, J2 and J3. Real-time PCR assay also confirmed that Gammaproteobacteria had the highest relative abundance in intestines from all growth stages. Intestinal bacterial communities from the three juvenile stages were more similar to each other than that of the PL shrimp based on PCA analyses of pyrosequencing results and their DGGE profiles. This study provides descriptive bacterial communities associated to the black tiger shrimp intestines during these growth development stages in rearing facilities.

  17. Bacterial population in intestines of the black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) under different growth stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rungrassamee, Wanilada; Klanchui, Amornpan; Chaiyapechara, Sage; Maibunkaew, Sawarot; Tangphatsornruang, Sithichoke; Jiravanichpaisal, Pikul; Karoonuthaisiri, Nitsara

    2013-01-01

    Intestinal bacterial communities in aquaculture have been drawn to attention due to potential benefit to their hosts. To identify core intestinal bacteria in the black tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon), bacterial populations of disease-free shrimp were characterized from intestines of four developmental stages (15-day-old post larvae (PL15), 1- (J1), 2- (J2), and 3-month-old (J3) juveniles) using pyrosequencing, real-time PCR and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) approaches. A total of 25,121 pyrosequencing reads (reading length = 442±24 bases) were obtained, which were categorized by barcode for PL15 (7,045 sequences), J1 (3,055 sequences), J2 (13,130 sequences) and J3 (1,890 sequences). Bacteria in the phyla Bacteroides, Firmicutes and Proteobacteria were found in intestines at all four growth stages. There were 88, 14, 27, and 20 bacterial genera associated with the intestinal tract of PL15, J1, J2 and J3, respectively. Pyrosequencing analysis revealed that Proteobacteria (class Gammaproteobacteria) was a dominant bacteria group with a relative abundance of 89% for PL15 and 99% for J1, J2 and J3. Real-time PCR assay also confirmed that Gammaproteobacteria had the highest relative abundance in intestines from all growth stages. Intestinal bacterial communities from the three juvenile stages were more similar to each other than that of the PL shrimp based on PCA analyses of pyrosequencing results and their DGGE profiles. This study provides descriptive bacterial communities associated to the black tiger shrimp intestines during these growth development stages in rearing facilities.

  18. [Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1986-01-01

    The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

  19. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  20. Comparisons of Growth and Survival Performance Among Selected Families and Wild Populations of Fenneropenaeus chinensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kun; Kong, Jie; Meng, Xianhong; Luan, Sheng; Cao, Baoxiang; Chen, Baolong

    2018-04-01

    In this study, families of selected population for growth (SP_BWT), selected population for white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) resistance (SP_RW), Bohai wild population (WP_BH) and Huanghai wild population (WP_HH) of F. chinensis were constructed through artificial insemination and with the standardized procedure of larvae rearing. Growth and survival performance were studied among four populations after a 70 days common test. The results showed that the maximum least square mean of body weight was 17.50 g in SP_BWT while the minimum was 13.03 g in WP_HH. Compared with WP_BH, body weight of SP_BWT increased by 23.41% ( P 0.05). Body weights of SP_BWT and SP_RW were significantly higher than that of WP_HH, which increased by 34.31% ( P populations was 0.19, 0.18, 0.17 and 0.16 g d-1, respectively. Coefficient of variation of body weight among four populations was high, which ranged from 32.67% to 35.25%. Such a range showed that there was the potentiality for further improvement in selected populations. Coefficient of variation of survival rate among four populations was low, varying between 3.20% and 5.90%. The difference of survival was highly significant ( P populations ( P growth performances were also observed among different families in each population. The body weight of 798F family was the highest. The absolute growth rate (AGR) was 0.25 g d-1, 150% higher than that of the lowest one, 0.1 g d-1 in 807F family. Survival rate of families among four populations was different. The highest was 94.74%, and the lowest was 71.88%.

  1. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  2. Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

    2013-01-14

    Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

  3. Population growth and rural-urban migration, with special reference to Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Graft-johnson, K T

    1974-01-01

    While the population of Ghana is expected to double in 25 years at the current rate of increase (approximately 2.5% per annum), the population of urban centers is increasing even faster. The 1970 census shows the urban population growing by 4.8% per annum. This is mainly the result of rural to urban migration and, to a smaller extent, the increase in the number of urban centers from 39 in 1948 to 98 in 1960 to 135 in 1970. In the 1970 census only 57.1% of the population were enumerated in their locality of birth and only 20.9% in a locality other than their place of birth but in the same region. 4.1% were born outside Ghana, mostly in another West African country. 1 striking difference between urban and rural areas is the differing sex ratio of the working population. In rural areas there are 91.0 males aged 15-64 years for every 100 females while in urban areas there are 107.1. Most migration in Africa is for employment and those most likely to migrate are working-age males. Because secondary schools are scarce in rural areas, urban dwellers generally have a higher education level. There are no significant differences between overall labor force participation rates for females. The nationwide participation rate was 38.9% for both males and females (males 43.8%, females 34.1%); in urban areas the total was 40.0% (males 46.3%, females 33.7%) and in rural areas 38.5% (males 42.7%, females 34.3%). Ghanaian women have traditionally occupied a prominent place in the labor force. The theory that urban migration is due to urban-rural income disparities is not confirmed by figures. Considering the high amount of unemployment in urban areas, a rural dweller can average as much as a city dweller. In fact, poorly educated migrants are the ones most affected by urban unemployment. A recent study by Kodwo Ewusi considered the impact of many variables on migration; he found depressed social conditions at the place of origin are more compelling motivations than economic factors

  4. Population size structure indices and growth standards for Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, 1758 in Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedicillo G.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide reference data on the growth and population structure of brown trout Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, in Central Italy. Standards for growth (percentiles and a standard growth model were developed from the von Bertalanffy growth model by using length-at-age data obtained from 122 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. Length-frequency indices provide a numeric estimation for deviations of the population structure from a balanced population. We adapted the traditional North American Relative Stock Density (RSD and Proportional Stock Density (PSD indices to brown trout populations in Central Italy by means of two methods. In the first method, the benchmarks of length categories were established by using percentages applied to the largest individual in the dataset. In the second method, asymptotic length and size at maturity were used to define the length categories for index calculation. Both methods were tested on length-frequency data from 263 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. The results showed that the PSD calculated by the first method provided a better insight into the population structures of brown trout. These results provide tools that will help ichthyologists and fish managers to compare the growth and population structure of brown trout throughout Central Italy.

  5. Effect of red and yellow ginger on growth performance and total ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to compare the effect of the red and yellow ginger on performance, nutrient digestibility and total antioxidant capacity of broiler chickens. In a 2×2×2+1 factorial design, a total of two hundred and sixteen, three weeks old broiler chicken with initial weight of 430 g (± 0.1g SE) were assigned to ...

  6. Population growth and environment as a self-organizing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. Allen

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Over recent years a new understanding of complex systems, and their dynamics and evolution has emerged, and these have been shown to provide a new basis for models of the changing patterns of population and economic activities that shape the landscape. In this paper we make clear the necessarily partial description that any particular model must provide, and show the importance of a multidisciplinary, holistic understanding, linking any particular model to the co-evolution of its environment. In addition, we show how evolutionary processes link the microscopic level of molecules through successive scales of structure and organization ultimately to the biosphere itself, to issues of climatic change, of biomes at the continental scale and atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Some very recent results will be shown which demonstrate that the world climate has already been modified considerably by human activities, particularly agriculture, underlining the vital need to understand better the on-going interaction between human activities and the biosphere.

  7. Influence of Cell-Cell Interactions on the Population Growth Rate in a Tumor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong

    2017-12-01

    The understanding of the macroscopic phenomenological models of the population growth at a microscopic level is important to predict the population behaviors emerged from the interactions between the individuals. In this work, we consider the influence of the population growth rate R on the cell-cell interaction in a tumor system and show that, in most cases especially small proliferative probabilities, the regulative role of the interaction will be strengthened with the decline of the intrinsic proliferative probabilities. For the high replication rates of an individual and the cooperative interactions, the proliferative probability almost has no effect. We compute the dependences of R on the interactions between the cells under the approximation of the nearest neighbor in the rim of an avascular tumor. Our results are helpful to qualitatively understand the influence of the interactions between the individuals on the growth rate in population systems. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11675008 and 21434001

  8. [Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, X Y

    1981-02-01

    In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

  9. A spatial analysis of patterns of growth and concentration of population based on homogeneous population censuses: Spain (1877-2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Franch Auladell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work constitutes a contribution to the analysis of long term patterns of population concentration applied to the case of Spain. The proposed methodology is based on the homogenisation of both data and administrative units which takes the municipal structure of the 2001 census as its base reference. This work seeks to show how applying spatial analysis techniques to this type of homogeneous data series allows us to make more detailed studies of population patterns within a given territory. The most important conclusions that we reached was that, in Spain, sustained population growth has followed a spatial pattern that has become increasingly consolidated over time. The tendencies observed have produced an uneven distribution of population within the national territory marked by the existence of a series of well-defined, and often very localised, areas that spread beyond the limits of the official administrative boundaries.

  10. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  11. Serum IGF-1 is insufficient to restore skeletal size in the total absence of the growth hormone receptor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yingjie; Sun, Hui; Basta-Pljakic, Jelena; Cardoso, Luis; Kennedy, Oran D; Jasper, Hector; Domené, Horacio; Karabatas, Liliana; Guida, Clara; Schaffler, Mitchell B; Rosen, Clifford J; Yakar, Shoshana

    2013-01-01

    States of growth hormone (GH) resistance, such those observed in Laron’s dwarf patients, are characterized by mutations in the GH receptor (GHR), decreased serum and tissue IGF-1 levels, impaired glucose tolerance, and impaired skeletal acquisition. IGF-1 replacement therapy in such patients increases growth velocity but does not normalize growth. Herein we combined the GH-resistant (GHR knockout, GHRKO) mouse model with mice expressing the hepatic Igf-1 transgene (HIT) to generate the GHRKO-HIT mouse model. In GHRKOHIT mice, serum IGF-1 levels were restored via transgenic expression of Igf-1 allowing us to study how endocrine IGF-1 affects growth, metabolic homeostasis, and skeletal integrity. We show that in a GH-resistant state, normalization of serum IGF-1 improved body adiposity and restored glucose tolerance but was insufficient to support normal skeletal growth, resulting in an osteopenic skeletal phenotype. The inability of serum IGF-1 to restore skeletal integrity in the total absence of GHR likely resulted from reduced skeletal Igf-1 gene expression, blunted GH-mediated effects on the skeleton that are independent of serum or tissue IGF-1, and from poor delivery of IGF-1 to the tissues. These findings are consistent with clinical data showing that IGF-I replacement therapy in patients with Laron’s syndrome does not achieve full skeletal growth. PMID:23456957

  12. Progressive risk assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls through a Total Diet Study in the Korean population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Eun-su; Nguyen, Khanh-Hoang; Kim, Jongchul; Kim, Cho-il; Chang, Yoon-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from foods was investigated through a Total Diet Study (TDS) for the first time in Korea. A representative food list was developed from food intake data. Non-selected foods were also included in the TDS through the mapping process to anticipate practical risk assessment. For better representativeness, data (2008–2011) from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were combined with the TDS data set. And also, we estimated the dietary exposure to PCBs from various food items using a ‘best-fit’ mapping process and assessed the differences in PCB exposures by sex and age. In this study, we examined total PCBs (62 congeners) including dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and indicator PCBs, which are congeners that are mainly detected in various environmental matrices. The average dietary exposure (3.94 ng/kg body weight/day) that was estimated through food intake was 19.7% of the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation. - Highlights: • A total of 282 samples, composed of the most consumed foodstuffs in Korea, were analysed and shown in detail. • The contamination status of total PCBs in food was assessed, through their various condition on cooking methods. • The dietary intakes of PCBs in various food groups were estimated in different region, gender and age groups. • The improved and systematic food selection process was applied such as ‘mapping process’. - This study is to ensure food safety through total analysis of PCBs with the improved risk assessment method.

  13. Physical growth of the shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI references for an indigenous amazonian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urlacher, Samuel S; Blackwell, Aaron D; Liebert, Melissa A; Madimenos, Felicia C; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

    2016-01-01

    Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age: 0-29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). Pseudo-velocity and Lambda-Mu-Sigma curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and multinational World Health Organization growth references. The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

    2010-10-05

    Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  15. Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P DeLong

    Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

  16. Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

    1986-01-01

    This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

  17. Population Growth and Development of the Psocid Liposcelis fusciceps (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at Constant Temperatures and Relative Humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Shakya, K

    2016-02-01

    We investigated the effects of seven temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, and 37.5°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis fusciceps Badonnel (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae). Results demonstrated that L. fusciceps did not survive at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested. At 55% RH, L. fusciceps did not survive at the highest three temperatures and no psocids survived at 37.5°C and 63% RH. The highest population growth was recorded at 30.0°C and 75% RH where populations increased 16-fold from an initial population of five females. L. fusciceps males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 28, 70, and 2%, respectively. Female L. fusciceps have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 2, 33, 63, and 2%, respectively. The total developmental time for males was shorter than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. fusciceps can survive and multiply at a relative humidity of 55% at 22.5-30.0°C, but does better at 27.5-32.5°C and a higher relative humidity of 75%. Relative humidities of ≤ 63% and temperatures of ≥ 32.5°C are detrimental to L. fusciceps. These data provide a better understanding of L. fusciceps population dynamics and can be used to develop effective management strategies for this psocid. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Tajul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

  19. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  20. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  1. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  2. Worldwide Experience with the Syncardia Total Artificial Heart in the Pediatric Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, David L S; Lorts, Angela; Rizwan, Raheel; Zafar, Farhan; Arabia, Francisco A; Villa, Chet R

    Individual centers have documented the use of the Syncardia Total Artificial Heart (TAH) in adolescents with heart failure; however, the number of patients at any given center is small. Herein, we describe the worldwide experience for all patients ≤21 years old supported with the TAH between May 2005 and May 2015 (n = 43). The number of patients experiencing a positive outcome at 60, 90, and 120 days were 30 (70%), 27 (63%), and 25 (58%), respectively. Successful bridge to transplantation varied by diagnosis, but outcomes reported are similar to adults supported with the TAH or biventricular assist devices.

  3. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stærk, Kristian; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Khandige, Surabhi

    2016-01-01

    were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. RESULTS:  Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations...... with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations....... enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. CONCLUSION:  Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions...

  5. Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

    2001-01-01

    In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

  6. The effect of total body irradiation and bone marrow transplantation during childhood and adolescence on growth and endocrine function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leiper, A.D.; Stanhope, R.; Lau, T.; Grant, D.B.; Blacklock, H.; Chessells, J.M.; Plowman, P.N.

    1987-01-01

    Seventeen children with acute leukaemia and myeloproliferative disorders were investigated for growth and endocrine dysfunction. All had undergone bone marrow transplantation prepared with cyclophosphamide and single fraction total body irradiation (900-1000 cGy) between 1.5 and 3.8 (mean 2.2) years previously. The majority exhibited growth failure, of multiple aetiology. Ten patients, of whom eight had had previous prophylactic cranial irradiation, had evidence of growth hormone deficiency based on reduced growth hormone reponse to insulin induced hypoglycaemia. Three had evidence of hypothalamic damage. Gonadal failure was common. All four girls of adolescent age (10.6-14.1 years) had ovarian failure requiring sex steroid replacement. Of eight boys of adolescent age (12.3-18.3 years), two had testicular failure requiring sex steroid supplements. Both had had previous testicular irradiation. Five others had compensated gonadal failure; one had normal Leydig cell function. Abnormalities of the TSH response to TRH occurred in 10 patients but only three had overt hypothyroidism. Unlike growth hormone deficiency, gonadal and thyroid dysfunction showed no correlation with previous cranial radiotherapy. (author)

  7. Estimating total economic merit for the Portuguese Holstein cattle population under new economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana B.M. Almeida

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a total economic merit index that identifies more profitable animals using Portugal as a case study to illustrate the recent economic changes in milk production. Economic values were estimated following future global prices and EU policy, and taking into consideration the priorities of the Portuguese dairy sector. Economic values were derived using an objective system analysis with a positive approach, that involved the comparison of several alternatives, using real technical and economic data from national dairy farms. The estimated relative economic values revealed a high importance of production traits, low for morphological traits and a value of zero for somatic cell score. According to several future market expectations, three scenarios for milk production were defined: a realistic, a pessimistic and an optimistic setting, each with projected future economic values. Responses to selection and efficiency of selection of the indices were compared to a fourth scenario that represents the current selection situation in Portugal, based on individual estimated breeding values for milk yield. Although profit resulting from sale of milk per average lactation in the optimistic scenario was higher than in the realistic scenario, the volatility of future economic conditions and uncertainty about the future milk pricing system should be considered. Due to this market instability, genetic improvement programs require new definitions of profit functions for the near future. Effective genetic progress direction must be verified so that total economic merit formulae can be adjusted and selection criteria redirected to the newly defined target goals.

  8. On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

  9. Non-target toxicity of synthetic insecticides on the biological performance and population growth of Bracon hebetor Say.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muslim, Mohammad; Ansari, M Shafiq; Hasan, Fazil

    2018-05-24

    Bracon hebetor Say (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is an important biological control agent of various species of order Lepidoptera and extensively used in biological control program worldwide. Present study evaluated the lethal and sublethal effects of insecticides on B. hebetor using demographic and population growth parameters. Doses of all the tested insecticides were within a maximum range of their recommended field dosages and adults were treated using residual glass vials method. For control experiments adults were treated with distilled water. Among the tested insecticides, the survivorship of various stages of B. hebetor was considerably prolonged on cyantraniliprole followed by chlorantraniliprole and shortest on chlorpyrifos and profenofos treated group. Total immature development time was prolonged in chlorpyrifos and profenofos treated group. Population growth parameters like intrinsic rate of natural increase (r m ), net reproductive rate (R 0 ), finite rate of increase (λ) and mean generation time (T c ) were considerably reduced in B. hebetor groups treated with chlorpyrifos and profenofos. However, B. hebetor groups treated with chlorantraniliprole and cyantraniliprole showed a little or no much difference in population growth parameters when compared with untreated group. It was also observed that chlorpyrifos and profenofos modified the sex ratio, thereby female emergence get reduced. On the basis of present findings it can be concluded that all tested insecticides caused considerable ecotoxic effects on B. hebetor compared to control. However, comparisons among the tested insecticides on the basis of IOBC criteria showed that chlorantraniliprol and cyntraniliprol was less toxic as compared to other insecticides tested on this biological control agent.

  10. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  11. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  12. Total Factor Productivity Growth, Technical Progress & Efficiency Change in Vietnam Coal Industry - Nonparametric Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong, Vu Hung

    2018-03-01

    This research applies Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to analyze Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and efficiency changes in Vietnam coal mining industry from 2007 to 2013. The TFP of Vietnam coal mining companies decreased due to slow technological progress and unimproved efficiency. The decadence of technical efficiency in many enterprises proved that the coal mining industry has a large potential to increase productivity through technical efficiency improvement. Enhancing human resource training, technology and research & development investment could help the industry to improve efficiency and productivity in Vietnam coal mining industry.

  13. Population growth, economic development and carrying capacity of the environment - are they compatible or in conflict?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. F. Heydom

    1996-07-01

    Full Text Available In South Africa, as in many other countries, human population growth is currently reaching levels which render competition for basic human needs such as land and water, inevitable. Concurrent to population growth is the absolute necessity for economic development and job opportunities which, in turn, make tremendous demands upon the environment and natural resource base. As a consequence ever greater emphasis is placed by the news media on apparent conflicts between industrial development and social needs on the one hand, and conservation of the environment and natural resources on the other.

  14. POPULATION Total Population NMHD 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The 2006 Second Edition TIGER/Line files are an extract of selected geographic and cartographic information from the Census TIGER database. The geographic coverage...

  15. POPULATION Total Population BGs 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — TIGER, TIGER/Line, and Census TIGER are registered trademarks of the Bureau of the Census. The Redistricting Census 2000 TIGER/Line files are an extract of selected...

  16. POPULATION Total Population COS 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — TIGER, TIGER/Line, and Census TIGER are registered trademarks of the Bureau of the Census. The Redistricting Census 2000 TIGER/Line files are an extract of selected...

  17. POPULATION Total Population CTs 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — TIGER, TIGER/Line, and Census TIGER are registered trademarks of the Bureau of the Census. The Redistricting Census 2000 TIGER/Line files are an extract of selected...

  18. POPULATION Total Population NMSD 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The 2006 Second Edition TIGER/Line files are an extract of selected geographic and cartographic information from the Census TIGER database. The geographic coverage...

  19. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  20. The use of autologous concentrated growth factors to promote syndesmosis fusion in the Agility total ankle replacement. A preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coetzee, J Chris; Pomeroy, Gregory C; Watts, J David; Barrow, Craig

    2005-10-01

    The Agility (DePuy, Warsaw, Indiana) total ankle replacement has been in use since 1984. One of the most common complications continues to be delayed union or nonunions of the distal tibiofibular syndesmosis. In the reported studies on the Agility ankle the delayed union and nonunion rate can be as high as 38%. Since 1999, 114 Agility total ankle replacements were done at two centers in the United States without the use of autologous concentrated growth factors. Since July of 2001, 66 Agility ankles were implanted with Symphony (DePuy, Warsaw, Indiana) augmented bone grafting. The standard operative technique was followed in all the patients. Prospective data was collected on all patients. The standard ankle radiographs were taken preoperatively and postoperative at 8 weeks, 12 weeks, 16 weeks, 6 months, and yearly. CT scans were obtained at 6 months if fusion at the syndesmosis was questionable. The Graphpad Instat software (Graphpad Software Inc., San Diego, CA) was used for statistical analysis. The two-tailed unpaired t-test was used, and the value ankle replacements without autologous concentrated growth factors 70 fused at 8 weeks (61%), 14 fused at 12 weeks (12%), 13 fused at 6 months (12%). There were 17 nonunions (15%); delayed unions (3 to 6 months) and nonunions, therefore, equaled 27%. The syndesmosis fused in 50 of the 66 ankle replacements (76%) that had autologous concentrated growth fractures at 8 weeks (76%); 12 fused at 3 months (18%), 2 fused at 6 months (3%), 2 had nonunions (3%). Delayed unions (3 to 6 months) and nonunions equaled 6%. There was a statistically significant improvement in the 8- and 12-week fusion rates, and a statistically significant reduction in delayed unions and nonunions. Autologous concentrated growth factors appear to make a significant positive difference in the syndesmosis union rate in total ankle replacements.

  1. Carbon isotope fractionation by thermophilic phototrophic sulfur bacteria: evidence for autotrophic growth in natural populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madigan, M. T.; Takigiku, R.; Lee, R. G.; Gest, H.; Hayes, J. M.

    1989-01-01

    Purple phototrophic bacteria of the genus Chromatium can grow as either photoautotrophs or photoheterotrophs. To determine the growth mode of the thermophilic Chromatium species, Chromatium tepidum, under in situ conditions, we have examined the carbon isotope fractionation patterns in laboratory cultures of this organism and in mats of C. tepidum which develop in sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park. Isotopic analysis (13C/12C) of total carbon, carotenoid pigments, and bacteriochlorophyll from photoautotrophically grown cultures of C. tepidum yielded 13C fractionation factors near -20%. Cells of C. tepidum grown on excess acetate, wherein synthesis of the Calvin cycle enzyme ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase) was greatly repressed, were isotopically heavier, fractionation factors of ca. -7% being observed. Fractionation factors determined by isotopic analyses of cells and pigment fractions of natural populations of C. tepidum growing in three different sulfide thermal springs in Yellowstone National Park were approximately -20%, indicating that this purple sulfur bacterium grows as a photoautotroph in nature.

  2. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  3. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

  4. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  5. The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, C C

    1994-01-01

    "This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

  6. Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

    2015-12-01

    Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

  7. An application of Pontrjagin's principle to the study of the optimal growth of population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spinadel, V. de

    1976-01-01

    This paper examines the consequences of an optimal control of population growth and allows to derive criteria referring to the economic basis of expenditure on population control and to obtain optimal paths for a model in which such a control is possible. By means of very simple assumptions one can reduce the problem to a two-state variable control problem and, in consequence, apply Pontrjagin's maximum principle to solve it. (author)

  8. Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widarto, T. H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, V. E.

    2007-01-01

    of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  9. A high dietary glycemic index increases total mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itandehui Castro-Quezada

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI and glycemic load (GL are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures. RESULTS: We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths. As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15-4.04; P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.

  10. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  11. Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

  12. Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Andrew M. Gascho; Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Angermeier, Paul L.

    2010-01-01

    Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26°C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ± 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers’ options for significant control of its invasion.

  13. Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onuoha, Hilda U.

    Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

  14. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  15. Relationship between growth and total nucleic acids in juvenile pink salmon, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, fed crude oil contaminated food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Shiao, Y.; Lum, J.L.; Carls, M.G.; Rice, S.D.

    1993-01-01

    Total nucleic acids of junvenile pink salmon fed crude oil contaminated food were analyzed to deteremine if nucleic acid measurements can be used to evaluate growth of fish collected at oil spill sites. In general, the nucleic acid concentration (μg per mg dry weight) of salmon fry fed food contaminated with either 0.37 or 2.78 mg crude oil/g food was not significantly affected. However, RNA concentration of fry fed food contaminated with 34.83 mg/g was reduced whereas DNA concentration increased. Results over 8 weeks indicate decreased protein synthesis and cell content but maintenance of cell integrity in these fish. Growth was inversely related to the level of crude oil contamination in the food. The significant correlations between measured growth and RNA/DNA ratios and RNA contents (mg RNA per mm fork length) suggest that nucleic acid measurement can be used to compare growth of fish collected from the field. 23 refs., 4 figs

  16. Total glucosides of Paeonia lactiflora Pall inhibit vascular endothelial growth factor-induced angiogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hui; Yan, Chunlin; Xiao, Tian; Yuan, Dingfen; Xu, Jinhua

    2010-02-17

    To evaluate the anti-angiogenesis effect of total glucosides of Paeonia lactiflora Pall. In this study, we determined the effect of TGP on the proliferation of human vascular endothelial cells through 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay and fluorescence-activated cell sorting analysis. A migration assay and a tube formation assay were used to investigate the migration properties and tube formation abilities of human vascular endothelial cells after being treated with TGP. Furthermore, the in vivo anti-angiogenic ability of TGP was determined through a chick chorioallantoic membrane assay. TGP (12.5, 62.5, and 312.5 microg/ml) resulted in a dose-dependent reduction in the proliferation of endothelial cells. This inhibition effect began 6h after treatment and lasted at least 24h. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting analysis data showed an accumulation of cells in the G0/G1 phase of the cell cycle, which exhibited apoptotic features indicative of cell death. The migration properties and tube forming abilities of endothelial cells were dramatically inhibited by the TGP extract. Our results show that TGP can inhibit angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  18. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

  19. Nutritional status and growth of children on macrobiotic diets : a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dagnelie, P.C.

    1988-01-01

    This thesis reports on the relationship between diet, growth, blood chemistry, psychomotor development, and clinical findings in the Dutch population of children on macrobiotic diets.- The macrobiotic diet mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and vegetables with small additions of seaweeds,

  20. The Effect of Population Growth upon the Quantity of Education Children Receive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Julian L.; Pilarski, Adam M.

    1979-01-01

    There is indeed some negative effect of population growth on the amount of education in developing nations, but the effect is less severe than has been thought. This finding is in sharp contrast to previous conclusions drawn from similar cross-national data. Available from Review of Economics and Statistics, M-8 Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA…

  1. Growth strategy of heterotrophic bacterial population along successional sequence on spoil of brown coal colliery substrate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištůfek, Václav; Elhottová, Dana; Chroňáková, Alica; Dostálková, I.; Picek, T.; Kalčík, Jiří

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 5 (2005), s. 427-435 ISSN 0015-5632 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA526/03/1259 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Keywords : growth strategy * heterotrophic bacterial population * brown coal colliery spoil Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.918, year: 2005

  2. Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

  3. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  4. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

  5. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

  6. Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashik Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

  7. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults. The dile...

  8. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  9. Female strobili incidence in a Minnesota population of black spruce: heritability and correlation with height growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Dana Nelson; C. A. Mohn

    1989-01-01

    Significant family variation in female strobili incidence, ripeness-to-flower and production were found in a Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) population tested at four locations. Heritability estimates indicated that gain in early flowering from selection would be possible. Height growth through age 12 years was positively correlated (genetic and...

  10. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

    2009-01-01

    It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

  11. Does pollen limitation affect population growth of the endangered Dracocephalum austriacum L.?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Castro, Sílvia; Dostálek, Tomáš; van der Meer, S.; Oostermeijer, G.; Münzbergová, Zuzana

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 1 (2015), s. 105-116 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-10850P; GA ČR GAP505/10/0593 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Dracocephalum austriacum * pollination ecology * population growth rate Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.698, year: 2015

  12. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

  13. Total and free insulin-like growth factor I, insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 and acid-labile subunit reflect clinical activity in acromegaly

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sneppen, S B; Lange, Merete Wolder; Pedersen, L M

    2001-01-01

    The aim was to evaluate, markers of disease activity in acromegaly in relation to perceived disease activity. Thirty-seven consecutively treated, acromegalic patients, classified by clinical symptoms as inactive (n=16), slightly active (n=10) and active (n=11), entered the study. When evaluating......-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) with PV(pos) of 0.69 and 0.71 and PV(neg) of 0.91 and 0.92 respectively. We conclude that free IGF-I is more closely related than total IGF-I to perceived disease activity and is as such useful when evaluating previously treated acromegaly for disease activity...

  14. Circadian variation in serum free and total insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I and IGF-II in untreated and treated acromegaly and growth hormone deficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjaerbaek, Christian; Frystyk, Jan; Kaal, Andreas

    2000-01-01

    to the nocturnal increase in IGF binding protein-1. In this study we have investigated the circadian variation in circulating free IGF-I and IGF-II in patients with acromegaly and patients with adult onset growth hormone deficiency. PATIENTS: Seven acromegalic patients were studied with and without treatment...... no significant circadian variations in free IGF-I or free IGF-II in either of the two occasions. In contrast, there was a significant circadian variation of total IGF-I after adjustment for changes in plasma volume in both treated and untreated acromegaly and GH deficiency in all cases with a peak between 0300 h...

  15. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  16. Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

  17. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  18. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  19. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  20. Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

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    Giovana Vera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

  1. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  2. Population growth and within-plant distribution of the striped mealybug Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae on cotton

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin D. Oliveira

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Population growth and within-plant distribution of the striped mealybug Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae on cotton. The striped mealybug, Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae, is a widely distributed and polyphagous pest species, which naturally occurs on cotton plants in Brazil. This study evaluated the establishment and population growth as well as the within-plant distribution of F. virgata on four cotton cultivars: CNPA 7H (white fibers, BRS Verde, BRS Safira, and BRS Rubi (colored fibers. The experiment was conducted in a complete randomized design with four treatments (cultivars and 18 replications of each. Thus, cotton plants of each cultivar were infested with 100 newly hatched nymphs of F. virgata. The number of adult female mealybugs and the total number of mealybugs per plant were quantified, respectively, at 25 and 50 days after infestation. The developmental and pre-reproductive periods were also determined. Furthermore, we verified the distribution of F. virgata on the plant parts at 25 and 50 days after infestation. Ferrisia virgata showed similar growth of 412-fold in the four cotton cultivars studied. Also, the nymphs were spread on infested leaves; the secondgeneration nymphs were spread and established in all plant parts. Our results characterize F. virgata as having much potential as an important cotton pest in Brazil.

  3. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  4. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  5. Identification of top-down forces regulating cotton aphid population growth in transgenic Bt cotton in central China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Han

    Full Text Available The cotton aphid Aphis gossypii Glover is the main aphid pest in cotton fields in the Yangtze River Valley Cotton-planting Zone (YRZ in central China. Various natural enemies may attack the cotton aphid in Bt cotton fields but no studies have identified potential specific top-down forces that could help manage this pest in the YRZ in China. In order to identify possibilities for managing the cotton aphid, we monitored cotton aphid population dynamics and identified the effect of natural enemies on cotton aphid population growth using various exclusion cages in transgenic Cry1Ac (Bt+CpTI (Cowpea trypsin inhibitor cotton field in 2011. The aphid population growth in the open field (control was significantly lower than those protected or restricted from exposure to natural enemies in the various exclusion cage types tested. The ladybird predator Propylaea japonica Thunberg represented 65% of Coccinellidae predators, and other predators consisted mainly of syrphids (2.1% and spiders (1.5%. The aphid parasitoids Aphidiines represented 76.7% of the total count of the natural enemy guild (mainly Lysiphlebia japonica Ashmead and Binodoxys indicus Subba Rao & Sharma. Our results showed that P. japonica can effectively delay the establishment and subsequent population growth of aphids during the cotton growing season. Aphidiines could also reduce aphid density although their impact may be shadowed by the presence of coccinellids in the open field (likely both owing to resource competition and intraguild predation. The implications of these results are discussed in a framework of the compatibility of transgenic crops and top-down forces exerted by natural enemy guild.

  6. Effect of Foliar Application of Micro Nutrients on Physiological Growth Indices and Total Dry Matter Yield of Forage Corn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Soleymani

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate the effect of foliar application of micro nutrients on physiological growth indices and total dry matter yield of forage corn. Field experiment was conducted in 2006 at Bersian village Isfahan. A randomized complete block design with four replications was used. Plant treated with 8 foliar application treatments (Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Fe + Mn, Cu + Zn, Fe + Mn + Cu + Zn and control. The responses to foliar application in total dry weight, LAI and CGR appeared to differ between the treatments, but there is no significant difference in NAR between the treatments. Maximum leaf area index gained in foliar application of Fe but there is significant difference between this treatment and other treatments except foliar application of Zn and Fe + Mn. Foliar application of Fe and Fe + Mn result to maximum total dry weight, but there is no significant difference between these treatments and foliar application of Zn, Mn, Mn + Cu and Fe + Zn + Cu +Mn. Maximum and minimum NAR gained in foliar application of Mn and control treatments respectively. Maximum CGR gained in foliar application of Zn, there is significant difference between this treatment and others. Control treatment in comparison with others shows minimum value in all measured factors. The results indicate that foliar application of micro nutrients particularly Fe and Fe+Mn may be suitable to product maximum total dry matter yield under similar condition.

  7. High nitrate to phosphorus regime attenuates negative effects of rising pCO2 on total population carbon accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Krug

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing rise in atmospheric pCO2 and consequent increase in ocean acidification have direct effects on marine calcifying phytoplankton, which potentially alters carbon export. To date it remains unclear, firstly, how nutrient regime, in particular by coccolithophores preferred phosphate limitation, interacts with pCO2 on particulate carbon accumulation; secondly, how direct physiological responses on the cellular level translate into total population response. In this study, cultures of Emiliania huxleyi were full-factorially exposed to two different N:P regimes and three different pCO2 levels. Cellular biovolume and PIC and POC content significantly declined in response to pCO2 in both nutrient regimes. Cellular PON content significantly increased in the Redfield treatment and decreased in the high N:P regime. Cell abundance significantly declined in the Redfield and remained constant in the high N:P regime. We hypothesise that in the high N:P regime severe phosphorous limitation could be compensated either by reduced inorganic phosphorous demand and/or by enzymatic uptake of organic phosphorous. In the Redfield regime we suggest that enzymatic phosphorous uptake to supplement enhanced phosphorous demand with pCO2 was not possible and thus cell abundance declined. These hypothesised different physiological responses of E. huxleyi among the nutrient regimes significantly altered population carrying capacities along the pCO2 gradient. This ultimately led to the attenuated total population response in POC and PIC content and biovolume to increased pCO2 in the high N:P regime. Our results point to the fact that the physiological (i.e. cellular PIC and POC response to ocean acidification cannot be linearly extrapolated to total population response and thus carbon export. It is therefore necessary to consider both effects of nutrient limitation on cell physiology and their consequences for population size when predicting the influence of

  8. Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

    2016-10-01

    The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Effects of Wine by-Products on Growth Performance, Complete Blood Count and Total Antioxidant Status in Broilers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SM Pascariu

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aimed to investigate the effect of whole grape pomace (GP, grape seed (GS and grape pomace polyphenolic extract (GPEP on growth performance, total antioxidant status (TAS and complete blood count (CBC of 40-day-old chicks (hybrid Cobb 500. A total of 432 unsexed one-day-old chicks were divided into six groups: control (CON and five experimental groups, 10 g/kg GP, 20 g/kg GP, 5 g/kg GS, 10 g/kg GS and 15 mL/L GPEP. The results showed a higher increase in growing rate in 5 g/kg GS group, from the first week of the chicks’ life throughout their growth, the average body weight of the chicks being significantly higher (p0.05 at 40 days of age. As a conclusion, the amount of 5 g/kg seeds, 10 g/kg and 20 g/kg pomace, can be added to the diet of the broilers, the dose of 5 g/kg seeds in the diet offering advantages in growing rate and feed valorization in weight gain.

  10. Magnetic field effect on growth, arsenic uptake, and total amylolytic activity on mesquite (Prosopis juliflora x P. velutina) seeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Mokgalaka-Matlala, Ntebogeng S.; Elizalde Galindo, José T.; Castillo-Michelle, Hiram; Peralta-Videa, Jose R.; Gardea-Torresdey, Jorge L.

    2012-04-01

    Magnetic field is closely related to the cell metabolism of plants [N. A. Belyavskaya, Adv. Space Res. 34, 1566 (2004)]. In order to see the effect of magnetic field on the plant growth, arsenic uptake, and total amylolytic activity of mesquite (Prosopis juliflora x P. velutina) seeds, ten sets of 80 seeds were selected to be oriented with the long axis parallel or randomly oriented to an external magnetic field. The external magnetic field magnitude was 1 T, and the exposition time t = 30 min. Then, the seeds were stored for three days in a plastic bag and then sown on paper towels in a modified Hoagland's nutrient solution. After three days of germination in the dark and three days in light, seedlings were grown hydroponically in modified Hoagland's nutrient solution (high PO42-) containing 0, 10, or 20 ppm of arsenic as As (III) and (V). The results show that the germination ratios, growth, elongation, arsenic uptake, and total amylolytic activity of the long axis oriented mesquite seeds were much higher than those of the randomly oriented seeds. Also, these two sets of seeds showed higher properties than the ones that were not exposed to external magnetic field.

  11. Postdischarge growth and development in a predominantly Hispanic, very low birth weight population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, George C; Ramamurthy, Rajam; Schoolfield, John; Matula, Kathleen

    2008-12-01

    The goals were to assess postdischarge growth and developmental progress of very low birth weight (birth weight: population and to identify predictors for neurodevelopmental impairment at 3 years of age. A cohort of 135 very low birth weight infants (gestational age: 23 to 35 weeks) were monitored to 3 years of age. Maternal and neonatal characteristics, anthropometric z scores, and developmental performance (using corrected age until 24 months) were analyzed collectively and according to gestational age groups. Specific criteria for failure to thrive and microcephaly were used. A characteristic pattern of poor weight gain in the first 12 months was followed by accelerated weight gain starting at 18 months, whereas head growth decreased at 18 months, with recovery beginning at 30 months of age. Infants born at gestational age of growth-impaired at 3 years of age, whereas infants born at gestational age of >or=27 weeks achieved catch-up growth by 30 months of age. Mean developmental scores also decreased in infancy, with improvements in motor development emerging at 18 months and cognitive skills at 30 months. Growth z scores, particularly for head growth, correlated with developmental scores. Infants born at gestational age of growth patterns that coincided with developmental progress in the first 3 years of life. Birth at gestational age of

  12. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  13. Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelius Okello

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028. The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

  14. Total Water Management - Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is a growing need for urban water managers to take a more holistic view of their water resource systems as population growth, urbanization, and current operations put different stresses on the environment and urban infrastructure. Total Water Management (TWM) is an approac...

  15. Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, P D

    1997-01-01

    For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

  16. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian

    2013-12-04

    Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

  17. Simulated warming differentially affects the growth and competitive ability of Centaurea maculosa populations from home and introduced ranges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Ming He

    Full Text Available Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range and North America (introduced range under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors.

  18. Simulated warming differentially affects the growth and competitive ability of Centaurea maculosa populations from home and introduced ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

    2012-01-01

    Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range) and North America (introduced range) under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors.

  19. Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FC. Massaro

    Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

  20. Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

    2014-08-01

    The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

  1. Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashmi, S S

    1990-01-01

    Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

  2. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  3. Effects of population density on growth and production of Tilapia in monoculture

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    TH Majumder

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The experiment was conducted to determine the effect of population density on growth and production of Tilapia (monosex GIFT tilapia in monoculture system for a period of 110 days. The experiment was carried out in six earthen ponds, which were situated in the Bangladesh Agricultural University Campus, Mymensingh. The experiment was carried out under three treatments each with two replications. Fish population density was 200 fish per decimal under treatment-I, 400 fish per decimal under treatment-II and 600 fish per decimal under treatment-III. In the ponds supplementary feed of wheat bran and rice bran mixture were used daily at the rate of 46 g, 92 g and 136 g per decimal under treatment-I, II, and III, respectively. The average initial length and weight of tilapia were 4.63 cm and 2.82 g respectively. The ponds were fertilized fortnightly with urea and TSP at the rates of 60 g and 90 g, respectively. During experimental period, the ranges of water temperature (25.82 to 29.80 ºC, transparency (28.00 to 38.00 cm, dissolved oxygen (5.50 to 8.30 mg/L, pH (7.00 to 7.90, total alkalinity (130.00 to 200.00 mg/L, free CO2 (2.00 to 6.00 mg/L, phosphate-phosphorus (1.20 to 2.30 mg/L, and nitrate-nitrogen (3.20 to 4.00 mg/L were within the productive range and more or less similar in all the ponds under three treatments. There were 25 genera of phytoplankton under five major groups and 10 genera of zooplankton under three major groups in the experimental ponds. Mean survival rate of fish under treatment-I, treatment-II, and treatment-III were 82.75%, 77.12% and 74.33% respectively. The calculated net fish production under treatment-I was 6.75 ton/ha/yr and that of the ponds under treatment-II was 10.26 ton/ha/yr and that of the ponds under treatment-III was 12.15 ton/ha/yr. The net fish production under treatment-II and treatment-III were 152% and 180% higher than that of treatment-I, taking net fish production under treatment-I for 100%. According to

  4. The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, David E.; Canning, David; Hu, Linlin; Liu, Yuanli; Mahal, Ajay; Yip, Winnie

    2010-01-01

    We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980. PMID:20419074

  5. Population growth and the environment: Can we eat the cake and have it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmuel Amir

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous population growth and the concomitant maintenance of a growth sustaining environment are not in conflict only if the rates of both economic and biological processes are slowed down steadily. For this to happen, individual and social impatience-lowering adaptations should be adopted, and the capital of the system, both economic and natural, has to be redistributed among the system interacting components to result in an ever more complex organizational web. In addition, these factors have to corroborate with a third element, the incorporation of an arsenal of varied technological innovations that improves the use of existing stocks.

  6. Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2009-10-01

    This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

  7. Life cycle and population growth rate of Caenorhabditis elegans studied by a new method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschiol, Daniel; Schroeder, Fabian; Traunspurger, Walter

    2009-05-16

    The free-living nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is the predominant model organism in biological research, being used by a huge number of laboratories worldwide. Many researchers have evaluated life-history traits of C. elegans in investigations covering quite different aspects such as ecotoxicology, inbreeding depression and heterosis, dietary restriction/supplement, mutations, and ageing. Such traits include juvenile growth rates, age at sexual maturity, adult body size, age-specific fecundity/mortality, total reproduction, mean and maximum lifespan, and intrinsic population growth rates. However, we found that in life-cycle experiments care is needed regarding protocol design. Here, we test a recently developed method that overcomes some problems associated with traditional cultivation techniques. In this fast and yet precise approach, single individuals are maintained within hanging drops of semi-fluid culture medium, allowing the simultaneous investigation of various life-history traits at any desired degree of accuracy. Here, the life cycles of wild-type C. elegans strains N2 (Bristol, UK) and MY6 (Münster, Germany) were compared at 20 degrees C with 5 x 10(9) Escherichia coli ml-1 as food source. High-resolution life tables and fecundity schedules of the two strains are presented. Though isolated 700 km and 60 years apart from each other, the two strains barely differed in life-cycle parameters. For strain N2 (n = 69), the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r m d(-1)), calculated according to the Lotka equation, was 1.375, the net reproductive rate (R 0) 291, the mean generation time (T) 90 h, and the minimum generation time (T min) 73.0 h. The corresponding values for strain MY6 (n = 72) were r m = 1.460, R0 = 289, T = 84 h, and T min = 67.3 h. Peak egg-laying rates in both strains exceeded 140 eggs d(-1). Juvenile and early adulthood mortality was negligible. Strain N2 lived, on average, for 16.7 d, while strain MY6 died 2 days earlier; however

  8. Life cycle and population growth rate of Caenorhabditis elegans studied by a new method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schroeder Fabian

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The free-living nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is the predominant model organism in biological research, being used by a huge number of laboratories worldwide. Many researchers have evaluated life-history traits of C. elegans in investigations covering quite different aspects such as ecotoxicology, inbreeding depression and heterosis, dietary restriction/supplement, mutations, and ageing. Such traits include juvenile growth rates, age at sexual maturity, adult body size, age-specific fecundity/mortality, total reproduction, mean and maximum lifespan, and intrinsic population growth rates. However, we found that in life-cycle experiments care is needed regarding protocol design. Here, we test a recently developed method that overcomes some problems associated with traditional cultivation techniques. In this fast and yet precise approach, single individuals are maintained within hanging drops of semi-fluid culture medium, allowing the simultaneous investigation of various life-history traits at any desired degree of accuracy. Here, the life cycles of wild-type C. elegans strains N2 (Bristol, UK and MY6 (Münster, Germany were compared at 20°C with 5 × 109 Escherichia coli ml-1 as food source. Results High-resolution life tables and fecundity schedules of the two strains are presented. Though isolated 700 km and 60 years apart from each other, the two strains barely differed in life-cycle parameters. For strain N2 (n = 69, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rmd-1, calculated according to the Lotka equation, was 1.375, the net reproductive rate (R0 291, the mean generation time (T 90 h, and the minimum generation time (Tmin 73.0 h. The corresponding values for strain MY6 (n = 72 were rm = 1.460, R0 = 289, T = 84 h, and Tmin = 67.3 h. Peak egg-laying rates in both strains exceeded 140 eggs d-1. Juvenile and early adulthood mortality was negligible. Strain N2 lived, on average, for 16.7 d, while strain MY6 died 2 days

  9. Discovery of Power-Law Growth in the Self-Renewal of Heterogeneous Glioma Stem Cell Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michiya Sugimori

    Full Text Available Accumulating evidence indicates that cancer stem cells (CSCs drive tumorigenesis. This suggests that CSCs should make ideal therapeutic targets. However, because CSC populations in tumors appear heterogeneous, it remains unclear how CSCs might be effectively targeted. To investigate the mechanisms by which CSC populations maintain heterogeneity during self-renewal, we established a glioma sphere (GS forming model, to generate a population in which glioma stem cells (GSCs become enriched. We hypothesized, based on the clonal evolution concept, that with each passage in culture, heterogeneous clonal sublines of GSs are generated that progressively show increased proliferative ability.To test this hypothesis, we determined whether, with each passage, glioma neurosphere culture generated from four different glioma cell lines become progressively proliferative (i.e., enriched in large spheres. Rather than monitoring self-renewal, we measured heterogeneity based on neurosphere clone sizes (#cells/clone. Log-log plots of distributions of clone sizes yielded a good fit (r>0.90 to a straight line (log(% total clones = k*log(#cells/clone indicating that the system follows a power-law (y = xk with a specific degree exponent (k = -1.42. Repeated passaging of the total GS population showed that the same power-law was maintained over six passages (CV = -1.01 to -1.17. Surprisingly, passage of either isolated small or large subclones generated fully heterogeneous populations that retained the original power-law-dependent heterogeneity. The anti-GSC agent Temozolomide, which is well known as a standard therapy for glioblastoma multiforme (GBM, suppressed the self-renewal of clones, but it never disrupted the power-law behavior of a GS population.Although the data above did not support the stated hypothesis, they did strongly suggest a novel mechanism that underlies CSC heterogeneity. They indicate that power-law growth governs the self-renewal of heterogeneous

  10. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

  11. INFLUENCE OF NPK AND LIME APLICATION ON ERVA-MATE GROWTH, ROOT-ROT SEVERITY AND SOIL FUNGI POPULATION1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Poletto

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The present work evaluated the influence of the application of NPK and liming doses in the soil, on the growth of Erva-mate, the severity of rot-root and the fungi population of the soil. To do so, an experiment was installed at the green house, in the Forest Nursery of UFSM, using an experimental design completely randomized factorial 4x3x4 (Factor F: Fusarium spp. inoculation; Factor C: soil limestone; Factor A: NPK doses , totaling 48 treatments. The seedlings were cultivated in vases containing 2 kg of soil, classified as ‘Red-Yellow Argisoil’ (clay soil. At the end of the experiment was measured the stem diameter, height of the aerial part, leaves number, aerial dry biomass, root dry biomass and total dry biomass of the seedlings. Also, the soil was collected, from each treatment, for the chemical analysis and the counting of the fungi population. It was observed that the association among application of NPK and liming in the soil hampered the development of Erva-mate seedlings. The analysis of some variables suggests that the limestone absence provided greater resistance of seedlings to the attack of Fusarium spp. or the severity of Fusarium spp. was reduced in lower pH. The fungi population of the soil presented varied behavior depending on the applied treatments.

  12. Early Statin Use and the Progression of Alzheimer Disease: A Total Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Feng-Cheng; Chuang, Yun-Shiuan; Hsieh, Hui-Min; Lee, Tzu-Chi; Chiu, Kuei-Fen; Liu, Ching-Kuan; Wu, Ming-Tsang

    2015-11-01

    The protective effect of statin on Alzheimer disease (AD) is still controversial, probably due to the debate about when to start the use of statin and the lack of any large-scale randomized evidence that actually supports the hypothesis. The purpose of this study was to examine the protective effect of early statin use on mild-to-moderate AD in the total Taiwanese population.This was a total population-based case-control study, using the total population of Taiwanese citizens seen in general medical practice; therefore, the findings can be applied to the general population. The study patients were those with newly diagnosed dementia (ICD-9 290.x) and prescribed any acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEI) from the Taiwan National Health Insurance dataset in 1997 to 2008. The newly diagnosed eligible mild-to-moderate AD patients were traced from the dates of their index dates, which was defined as the first day to receive any AChEI treatment, back to 1 year (exposure period) to categorize them into AD with early statin use and without early statin use. Early statin use was defined as patients using statin before AChEI treatment. Alzheimer disease patients with early statin use were those receiving any statin treatment during the exposure period. Then, we used propensity-score-matched strategy to match these 2 groups as 1:1. The matched study patients were followed-up from their index dates. The primary outcome was the discontinuation of AChEI treatment, indicating AD progression.There were 719 mild-to-moderate AD-paired patients with early statin use and without early statin use for analyses. Alzheimer disease progression was statistically lower in AD patients with early statin use than those without (P = 0.00054). After adjusting for other covariates, mild-to-moderate AD patients with early stain use exhibited a 0.85-risk (95% CI = 0.76-0.95, P = 0.0066) to have AD progression than those without.Early statin use was significantly associated with a reduction in AD

  13. Mutually catalyzed birth of population and assets in exchange-driven growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhenquan; Ke, Jianhong; Ye, Gaoxiang

    2006-10-01

    We propose an exchange-driven aggregation growth model of population and assets with mutually catalyzed birth to study the interaction between the population and assets in their exchange-driven processes. In this model, monomer (or equivalently, individual) exchange occurs between any pair of aggregates of the same species (population or assets). The rate kernels of the exchanges of population and assets are K(k,l)=Kkl and L(k,l)=Lkl , respectively, at which one monomer migrates from an aggregate of size k to another of size l . Meanwhile, an aggregate of one species can yield a new monomer by the catalysis of an arbitrary aggregate of the other species. The rate kernel of asset-catalyzed population birth is I(k,l)=Iklμ [and that of population-catalyzed asset birth is J(k,l)=Jklν ], at which an aggregate of size k gains a monomer birth when it meets a catalyst aggregate of size l . The kinetic behaviors of the population and asset aggregates are solved based on the rate equations. The evolution of the aggregate size distributions of population and assets is found to fall into one of three categories for different parameters μ and ν : (i) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to the conventional scaling form in the case of μ⩽0 (ν⩽0) , (ii) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to a modified scaling form in the case of ν=0 and μ>0 ( μ=0 and ν>0 ), and (iii) both population and asset aggregates undergo gelation transitions at a finite time in the case of μ=ν>0 .

  14. Social life factors affecting the mortality, longevity, and birth rate of total Japanese population: effects of rapid industrialization and urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, S; Uchida, E; Murata, K

    1990-12-01

    employment were positively related to the birth rate. The birth rate is higher in rural areas. Mortality of professional, engineering, and administrative workers was slightly lower than the total working population, while sales workers, those in farming, fishing, and forestry, and in personal and domestic service had significantly higher mortality. The mortality of the nonworking population was 6-8 times higher than sales, transportation, and communication, and personal and domestic service as well as the total population.

  15. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  17. Exposure to household endotoxin and total and allergen-specific IgE in the US population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Kyoung-Bok; Min, Jin-Young

    2015-01-01

    Background: Although endotoxin has strong pro-inflammatory properties, endotoxin-allergy relationship in adults and children have been inconsistent. Objectives: We investigated the association between household endotoxin levels and total immunoglobulin E (IgE) or specific IgE in the US general population, classified into three age ranges: children/adolescent, adults, and older adults. Methods: We analyzed the 2005–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. A total of 5220 participants for whom serum IgE and household endotoxin data were available was included in the analyses. Results: Exposure to endotoxin reduced the risk for allergic sensitization, especially in specific IgE to plants (OR in Quartile 3 = 0.58; 95% CI = 0.44–0.76) and pets (OR in Quartile 3 = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.41–0.92), for children/adolescents. In contrast, the risk among adults and older adults increased with increasing endotoxin levels. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the effect of endotoxin on allergic reaction is likely to depend on age. - Highlights: • Findings regarding the endotoxin-allergy relationship in adults and children are inconsistent. • We investigated the association of endotoxin with total and specific IgE in US population. • The association between endotoxin levels and allergic markers is likely to depend on age. • Exposure to endotoxin reduced the risk for allergic sensitization for children/adolescents. • The risk among adults and older adults increased with increasing endotoxin levels. - Exposure to endotoxin reduced the risk for allergic sensitization for children/adolescents, but decreased the risk among adults and older

  18. Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Lutz

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

  19. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2014-04-01

    Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms

  20. Effects of fermented cottonseed meal on the growth performance, gastrointestinal microflora population and small intestinal morphology in broiler chickens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jazi, V; Boldaji, F; Dastar, B; Hashemi, S R; Ashayerizadeh, A

    2017-08-01

    1. This experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of replacing dietary cottonseed meal (CSM) or fermented cottonseed meal (FCSM) for soya bean meal (SBM) on growth performance, carcass characteristics, gastrointestinal microbial populations, and intestinal morphology of broiler chickens. 2. CSM was fermented with Bacillus subtilis, Aspergillus niger and A. oryzae for 7 d. A total of 300 one-d-old male Ross 308 broiler chickens were used in a 42-d experiment in which the birds were randomly allotted to one of 5 dietary treatments (containing 0%, 10% and 20% CSM or FCSM) in a completely randomised design. Birds were reared on litter floor and had free access to feed and water during the experiment. 3. Results indicated that the fermentation process significantly reduced crude fibre and free gossypol, while it increased crude protein content and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) count in CSM. 4. The use of FCSM instead of CSM significantly improved growth performance of broilers. The abdominal fat yield in treatments containing FCSM was significantly lower than in the other treatments. The increase in the population of LAB in the crop and decrease in the population of coliforms in the ileum of birds fed on diets containing FCSM were more significant than in other birds. Villi in the duodenum and jejunum of the birds fed on diets containing FCSM were significantly higher than for the other experimental groups. 5. The positive effects of diets containing FCSM on growth performance and intestinal health of broiler chickens showed that this processed source of protein can serve as an appropriate alternative for SBM in diets for broiler chickens.

  1. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  2. Recovery of the Erythropoietin-Sensitive Stem-Cell Population following Total-Body X-Irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byron, J. W. [Paterson Laboratories, Christie Hospital and Holt Radium Institute, Manchester (United Kingdom)

    1968-08-15

    Erythropoietin acts upon haemopoietic stem cells to initiate their differentiation into the erythroid series. This effect may be used in polycythaemic mice to estimate changes in the erythropoietin-sensitive stem-cell population following total-body irradiation (TBR). Generally, single doses of erythropoietin, less than that needed for maximum stem-cell response, are used to estimate changes in the stem-cell population. The validity of results using this test is based upon accepting several assumptions regarding erythropoietin kinetics. These are: (a) the contribution of endogenous erythropoietin is always negligible; (b) the origin of the dose-response curve to erythropoietin alters only because of changes in stem-cell numbers; (c) the proportion of stem cells responding to a given concentration of erythropoietin is independent of stem-cell numbers; (d) the slope of the dose-response curve does not alter; and (e) competition between erythropoietin and other factors for the stem cells remains unchanged. The studies to be reported indicate that some of these assumptions m a y not always be valid. Following 150 rad TBR, changes in erythropoietin dose-response curves were not always due to changes in the size of the stem-cell population, but also due to changes in erythropoietin kinetics. Changes in erythropoietin kinetics could be corrected for by using doses of erythropoietin which at any particular time after TBR gave maximum stem-cell response; through full dose-response studies, the nature of changes in erythropoietin kinetics following TBR could be established. These studies appear to explain discrepancies in results obtained in different laboratories using the erythropoietin test. The effect of 150 rad TBR on the erythropoietin-sensitive stem-cell population is an initial depression within 30 min to 20% of normal followed by a second depression (post-irradiation dip) at about 12 h. Twenty-four hours after TBR there is a recovery to the initial depression. This

  3. Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

    2009-03-01

    Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations.

  4. Influence of pulsed magnetic field on soybean (Glycine max L.) seed germination, seedling growth and soil microbial population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Kumari, Bollipo Dyana Ranjitha

    2013-08-01

    The effects of pulsed magnetic field (PMF) treatment of soybean (Glycine max L. cv CO3) seeds were investigated on rate of seed germination, seedling growth, physico-chemical properties of seed leachates and soil microbial population under laboratory conditions. Seeds were exposed to PMF of 1500 nT at 0.1, 1.0 10.0 and 100.0 Hz for 5 h per day for 20 days, induced by enclosure coil systems. Non-treated seeds were considered as controls. All PMF treatments significantly increased the rate of seed germination, while 10 and 100 Hz PMFs showed the most effective response. The 1.0 and 10 Hz PMFs remarkably improved the fresh weight of shoots and roots, leaf area and plant height from seedlings from magnetically-exposed seeds compared to the control, while 10 Hz PMF increased the total soluble sugar, total protein and phenol contents. The leaf chlorophyll a, b and total chlorophyll were higher in PMF (10 and 100 Hz) pretreated plants, as compared to other treatments. In addition, activities of alpha-amylase, acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase, nitrate reductase, peroxidase and polyphenoloxidase were increased, while beta-amylase and protease activities were declined in PMF (10 Hz)-exposed soybean plants. Similarly, the capacity of absorbance of water by seeds and electrical conductivity of seed leachates were significantly enhanced by 10 Hz PMF exposure, whereas PMF (10 Hz) pretreated plants did not affect the microbial population in rhizosphere soil. The results suggested the potential of 10 Hz PMF treatment to enhance the germination and seedling growth of soybean.

  5. Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2017-03-01

    This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

  6. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  7. Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria reduce aphid population and enhance the productivity of bread wheat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naeem, Muhammad; Aslam, Zubair; Khaliq, Abdul; Ahmed, Jam Nazir; Nawaz, Ahmad; Hussain, Mubshar

    2018-04-24

    Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria increase plant growth and give protection against insect pests and pathogens. Due to the negative impact of chemical pesticides on environment, alternatives to these chemicals are needed. In this scenario, the biological methods of pest control offer an eco-friendly and an attractive option. In this study, the effect of two plant growth promoting rhizobacterial strains (Bacillus sp. strain 6 and Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K) on aphid population and wheat productivity was evaluated in an aphid susceptible (Pasban-90) and resistant (Inqlab-91) wheat cultivar. The seeds were inoculated with each PGPR strain, separately or the combination of both. The lowest aphid population (2.1tiller -1 ), and highest plant height (85.8cm), number of spikelets per spike (18), grains per spike (44), productive tillers (320m -2 ), straw yield (8.6Mgha -1 ), and grain yield (4.8Mgha -1 ) were achieved when seeds were inoculated with Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K. The grain yield of both varieties was enhanced by 35.5-38.9% with seed inoculation with both bacterial strains. Thus, the combine use of both PGPR strains viz. Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K offers an attractive option to reduce aphid population tied with better wheat productivity. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  8. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  9. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Vincenzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  10. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  11. Total and Differential Leukocyte Counts in Relation to Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borné, Yan; Smith, J Gustav; Nilsson, Peter M; Melander, Olle; Hedblad, Bo; Engström, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    High concentrations of leukocytes in blood have been associated with diabetes mellitus. This prospective study aimed to explore whether total and differential leukocyte counts are associated with incidence of diabetes. A missense variant R262W in the SH2B3 (SH2B adaptor protein 3) gene, coding for a protein that negatively regulates hematopoietic cell proliferation, was also studied in relation to incidence of diabetes. Leukocyte count and its subtypes (neutrophils, lymphocytes and mixed cells) were analyzed in 26,667 men and women, 45-73 years old, from the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer study. Information about the R262W polymorphism (rs3184504) in SH2B3 was genotyped in 24,489 subjects. Incidence of diabetes was studied during a mean follow-up of 14 years. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine incidence of diabetes by total and differential leukocyte counts. Mendelian randomization analysis using R262W as an instrumental variable was performed with two-stage least squares regression. A total of 2,946 subjects developed diabetes during the follow-up period. After taking several possible confounders into account, concentrations of total leukocyte count, neutrophils and lymphocytes were all significantly associated with incidence of diabetes. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval; quartile 4 vs quartile 1) were 1.37 (1.22-1.53) for total leukocytes, 1.33 (1.19-1.49) for neutrophils and 1.29 (1.15-1.44) for lymphocytes. The R262W polymorphism was strongly associated with leukocytes (0.11x109 cells/l per T allele, p = 1.14 x10-12), lymphocytes (p = 4.3 x10-16), neutrophils (p = 8.0 x10-6) and mixed cells (p = 3.0 x10-6). However, there was no significant association between R262W and fasting glucose, HbA1c or incidence of diabetes. Concentrations of total leukocytes, neutrophils and lymphocytes are associated with incidence of diabetes. However, the lack of association with the R262W polymorphism suggests that the associations

  12. The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1992-02-01

    A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest

  13. The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

    2018-01-01

    Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas

  14. REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebryakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

  15. The total body length and body weight examination among gabus Sentani fish population, Oxyeleotris heterodon, Weber 1907 (Pisces: Eleotridae) of Sentani lake, Papua, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriyani, E. D.; Abinawanto, Bowolaksono, A.

    2017-07-01

    The gabus Sentani fish lived in the Sentani Lake, Papua, since million years ago. Nowadays, the population of those species is getting extinct because of the overexploitation, whereas the culture effort of this species has not been developed, yet. The purpose of the study was to examine the total body length and body weight collected from some villages surrounding Sentani Lake such as Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village. The body weight average of gabus fish from Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village were 373.53 g, 426.86 g, and 118.34 g respectively. While the total body length average of gabus Sentani fish from Ifar village, Sosiri village, and Putali village were 279.30 mm, 223.30 mm and 222.06 mm, respectively. The growth model was W = 0.021067L3.086 with R2 value was 35.8 %, and r value was 0.598. Gabus Sentani fish, Oxyeleotris heterodon (Weber 1907) exhibited positive allometric (b > 3).

  16. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  17. Disability in society-medical and non-medical determinants for disability pension in a Norwegian total county population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar

    2004-05-01

    The objective of this study was to describe sociomedical determinants and developments for the medically based disability pension in Norway by linking individual based data from a county health survey to data on disability from the National Insurance Administration. Two cross-sectional total population health surveys with an approximate 10-year interval were conducted in Nord-Trøndelag county, HUNT I (1984-86) and HUNT II (1995-97), which allows for analyses of changes over time, supplied with official incidence data on disability pension. The large-scale variations and overall increasing incidence rates of disability pension in Norway during the last 20 years also applied to the county of Nord-Trøndelag. The prevalence of disability pension generally increased in the population from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. A striking finding was a consistent pattern of increasing prevalence of disability pension with decreasing socio-economic status and education. A geographic pattern for disability pension prevalence on a municipality level suggested that structural and cultural factors were important in determining the level of disability in society. Medical determinants alone cannot explain either the dramatic variations or the overall increased incidence rates of disability pension in the last two decades in Norway. The results demonstrate the importance of social, non-medical and contextual determinants for disability pension, how these determinants result in important prevalence differences by socio-economic status, and their impact on the level of disability in society.

  18. Total Alkaloids of Sophora alopecuroides Inhibit Growth and Induce Apoptosis in Human Cervical Tumor HeLa Cells In vitro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-Guang; Yang, Xiao-Yi; Huang, Wei

    2016-05-01

    Uygur females of Xinjiang have the higher incidence of cervical tumor in the country. Alkaloids are the major active ingredients in Sophora alopecuroides, and its antitumor effect was recognized by the medical profession. Xinjiang is the main site of S. alopecuroides production in China so these plants are abundant in the region. Studies on the antitumor properties of total alkaloids of S. alopecuroides (TASA) can take full use of the traditional folk medicine in antitumor unique utility. To explore the effects of TASA on proliferation and apoptosis of human cervical tumor HeLa cells in vitro. TASA was extracted, purified, and each monomer component was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. The effect of TASA at different concentrations on the survival of HeLa cells was determined after 24 h using the Cell Counting Kit-8. In addition, cells were photographed using an inverted microscope to document morphological changes. The effect of TASA on apoptotic rate of HeLa cells was assessed by flow cytometry. Monomers of TASA were found to be sophoridine, matrine, and sophocarpine. On treatment with 8.75 mg/ml of TASA, more than 50% of HeLa cells died, and cell death rate increased further with longer incubation. The apoptotic rates of HeLa cells in the experimental groups were 16.0% and 33.3% at concentrations of 6.25 mg/ml and 12.50 mg/ml, respectively. TASA can induce apoptosis in cervical tumor HeLa cells, and it has obvious inhibitory effects on cell growth. Total alkaloids of Sophora alopecuroides (TASA) exhibits anti-human cervical tumor propertiesMonomer component of TASA was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography, and its main effect component are sophoridine, matrine, and sophocarpineTASA inhibits growth and induces apoptosis in HeLa cells. Abbreviations used: TASA: Total alkaloids of S. alopecuroides, CCK-8: Cell Counting Kit-8, FBS: Fetal bovine serum, PBS: Phosphate buffered saline, DMEM: Dulbecco's modified Eagle medium.

  19. Assessment of the Swedish EQ-5D experience-based value sets in a total hip replacement population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemes, Szilárd; Burström, Kristina; Zethraeus, Niklas; Eneqvist, Ted; Garellick, Göran; Rolfson, Ola

    2015-12-01

    All patients undergoing elective total hip replacement (THR) in Sweden are asked to complete a survey, including the EQ-5D. Thus far, EQ-5D values have been presented using the UK TTO value set based on hypothetical values. Shift to the use of the recently introduced Swedish experience-based value set, derived from a representative Swedish population, is an appealing alternative. To investigate how accurate the Swedish experience-based VAS value set predicts observed EQ VAS values and to compare correlations between Swedish and UK value sets including two provisional value sets derived from the THR population. Pre- and one-year postoperative data from 56,062 THR patients from the Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register were used. Agreement between the observed and the predicted EQ VAS values was assessed with correlation. Based on pre- and postoperative data, we constructed two provisional VAS value sets. Correlations between observed and calculated values using the Swedish VAS value set were moderate (r = 0.46) in preoperative data and high (r = 0.72) in postoperative data. Correlations between UK and register-based value sets were constantly lower compared to Swedish value sets. Register-based values and Swedish values were highly correlated. The Swedish value sets are more accurate in terms of representation of the Swedish THR patients than the currently used UK TTO value set. We find it feasible to use the experience-based Swedish value sets for further presentation of EQ-5D values in the Swedish THR population.

  20. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  1. Neuraxial anesthesia improves long-term survival after total joint replacement: a retrospective nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei-Hung; Hung, Kuo-Chuan; Tan, Ping-Heng; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2015-04-01

    This study explored the effects of general (GA) and neuraxial (NA) anesthesia on the outcomes of primary total joint replacement (TJR) in terms of postoperative mortality, length of stay (LOS), and hospital treatment costs. From 1997 to 2010, this nationwide population-based study retrospectively evaluated 7,977 patients in Taiwan who underwent primary total hip or knee replacement. We generated two propensity-score-matched subgroups, each containing an equal number of patients who underwent TJR with either GA or NA. Of the 7,977 patients, 2,990 (37.5%) underwent GA and 4,987 (62.5%) underwent NA. Propensity-score matching was used to create comparable GA and NA groups adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, surgery type, hospital volume, and surgeon volume. Survival over the first three years following surgery was similar. The proportion of patients alive up to 14 years postoperatively for those undergoing NA was 58.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 50.4 to 66.0), and for those undergoing GA it was 57.3% (95% CI 51.4 to 63.2). Neuraxial anesthesia was associated with lower median [interquartile range; IQR] hospital treatment cost ($4,079 [3,805-4,444] vs $4,113 [3,812-4,568]; P anesthesia costs are removed. The mechanism underlying the association between NA and long-term survival is unknown.

  2. Mental Health Services Use Predicted by Number of Mental Health Problems and Gender in a Total Population Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maj-Britt Posserud

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between service use and the number of problem areas as reported by parents and teachers on questionnaires among children aged 7–9 years old in the Bergen Child Study, a total population study including more than 9000 children. A problem area was counted as present if the child scored above the 95th percentile on parent and/or teacher questionnaire. A total number of 13 problem areas were included. Odd ratios (ORs for contact with child and adolescent mental health services (CAMH, school psychology services (SPS, health visiting nurse/physician, and school support were calculated with gender as covariate. The number of symptom areas was highly predictive of service use, showing a dose-response relationship for all services. Children scoring on ≥4 problem areas had a more than hundredfold risk of being in contact with CAMH services compared to children without problems. The mean number of problem areas for children in CAMH and SPS was 6.1 and 4.4 respectively, strongly supporting the ESSENCE model predicting multisymptomatology in children in specialized services. Even after controlling for number of problem areas, boys were twice as likely as girls to be in contact with CAMH, replicating previous findings of female gender being a strong barrier to mental health services.

  3. Bioaccumulation of trace metals and total petroleum and genotoxicity responses in an edible fish population as indicators of marine pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Costa, Avelyno; Shyama, S K; Praveen Kumar, M K

    2017-08-01

    The present study reports the genetic damage and the concentrations of trace metals and total petroleum hydrocarbons prevailing in natural populations of an edible fish, Arius arius in different seasons along the coast of Goa, India as an indicator of the pollution status of coastal water. Fish were collected from a suspected polluted site and a reference site in the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Physico-chemical parameters as well as the concentrations of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and trace metals in the water and sediment as well as the tissues of fish collected from these sites were recorded. The genotoxicity status of the fish was assessed employing the micronucleus test and comet assay. A positive correlation (p<0.001) was observed between the tail DNA and micronuclei in all the fish collected. Multiple regression analysis revealed that tissue and environmental pollutant concentrations and genotoxicity were positively associated and higher in the tissues of the fish collected from the polluted site. Pollution indicators and genotoxicity tests, combined with other physiological or biochemical parameters represent an essential integrated approach for efficient monitoring of aquatic ecosystems in Goa. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

  5. Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter Zeug

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

  6. Bone growth, limb proportions and non-specific stress in archaeological populations from Croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Timpson, A; Thomas, M; Slaus, M

    2014-01-01

    The effect of environmental factors and, in particular, non-specific stress on the growth patterns of limbs and other body dimensions of children from past populations is not well understood. This study assesses whether growth of mediaeval and post-mediaeval children aged between 0-11.5 years from Adriatic (coastal) and continental Croatia varies by region and by the prevalence and type of non-specific stress. Dental ages were estimated using the Moorrees, Fanning and Hunt (MFH) scoring method. Growth of long bone diaphyses (femur, tibia, humerus, radius and ulna) was assessed by using a composite Z-score statistic (CZS). Clavicular length was measured as a proxy for upper trunk width, distal metaphyseal width of the femur was measured as a proxy for body mass and upper and lower intra-limb indices were calculated. Differences between sub-sets sampled by (a) region and (b) active vs healed non-specific stress indicators and (c) intra-limb indices were tested by Mann--Whitney U-tests and Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). Adriatic children attained larger dimensions-per-age than continental children. Children with healed stress lesions had larger dimensions-per-age than those with active lesions. No inter-regional difference was found in intra-limb indices. These findings highlight the complexity of growth patterns in past populations and indicate that variation in environmental conditions such as diet and differences in the nature of non-specific stress lesions both exert a significant effect on long bone growth.

  7. [The impact of population growth on Tamba Kosi, a Himalayan valley in Nepal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verliat, S

    1994-01-01

    Two several-month-long stays in the isolated Tamba Kosi valley in Nepal in 1983 and 1986 allowed an assessment of the importance of changes in rural societies. In about 50 years, the oldest inhabitants of some villages have seen the number of houses quadruple. In the absence of reliable statistical data, the inhabitants say that the Tamba Kosi valley population has doubled in the last 25 years. This population growth exacerbates the multiethnic fight for good land (i.e., ground of modest slope, hot, and humid). Many people have emigrated, which has somewhat eased problems relative to population growth. Soil degradation, which is becoming more and more acute, drives the inhabitants to cut down trees and clear the land for cultivation of new plots. These new plots are running up against steep slopes and high altitude. Most families have barely two hectares, which must suffice to feed 5-6 people on average. This fuels intensification of agricultural production, resulting in low efficacy. Livestock mutilate forests with their hooves and teeth. The marked increase in the variety of livestock accelerates this destruction. Three types of building materials are used in this high valley: thatch, shingles (fir tree), and bamboo matting. The disappearance of wild grasses used to make thatch roofs and people moving to higher and higher altitudes resulted in use of shingles to make roofs. Buildings made of shingles, which demanded changes in construction techniques, changed the conception of homes. They became the preferred building type, which increased the demand for fir trees and deforestation. This lead to a demand for roofing material made of bamboo matting and another change in construction techniques. The retreat of the forest and disappearance of the most wanted plant species are the most spectacular impacts of population growth. This environmental degradation exacerbates erosion at all bioclimatic altitudes.

  8. Beverage Consumption Habits and Association with Total Water and Energy Intakes in the Spanish Population: Findings of the ANIBES Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissensohn, Mariela; Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena; Ortega, Rosa M; Aranceta-Bartrina, Javier; Gil, Ángel; González-Gross, Marcela; Varela-Moreiras, Gregorio; Serra-Majem, Lluis

    2016-04-20

    Inadequate hydration is a public health issue that imposes a significant economic burden. In Spain, data of total water intake (TWI) are scarce. There is a clear need for a national study that quantifies water and beverage intakes and explores associations between the types of beverages and energy intakes. The Anthropometry, Intake and Energy Balance Study ANIBES is a national survey of diet and nutrition conducted among a representative sample of 2285 healthy participants aged 9-75 years in Spain. Food and beverage intakes were assessed in a food diary over three days. Day and time of beverage consumption were also recorded. On average, TWI was 1.7 L (SE 21.2) for men and 1.6 L (SE 18.9) for women. More than 75% of participants had inadequate TWI, according to European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommendations. Mean total energy intake (EI) was 1810 kcal/day (SE 11.1), of which 12% was provided by beverages. Water was the most consumed beverage, followed by milk. The contribution of alcoholic drinks to the EI was near 3%. For caloric soft drinks, a relatively low contribution to the EI was obtained, only 2%. Of eight different types of beverages, the variety score was positively correlated with TWI (r = 0.39) and EI (r = 0.23), suggesting that beverage variety is an indicator of higher consumption of food and drinks. The present study demonstrates that well-conducted surveys such as the ANIBES study have the potential to yield rich contextual value data that can emphasize the need to undertake appropriate health and nutrition policies to increase the total water intake at the population level promoting a healthy Mediterranean hydration pattern.

  9. Beverage Consumption Habits and Association with Total Water and Energy Intakes in the Spanish Population: Findings of the ANIBES Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissensohn, Mariela; Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena; Ortega, Rosa M.; Aranceta-Bartrina, Javier; Gil, Ángel; González-Gross, Marcela; Varela-Moreiras, Gregorio; Serra-Majem, Lluis

    2016-01-01

    Background: Inadequate hydration is a public health issue that imposes a significant economic burden. In Spain, data of total water intake (TWI) are scarce. There is a clear need for a national study that quantifies water and beverage intakes and explores associations between the types of beverages and energy intakes. Methods: The Anthropometry, Intake and Energy Balance Study ANIBES is a national survey of diet and nutrition conducted among a representative sample of 2285 healthy participants aged 9–75 years in Spain. Food and beverage intakes were assessed in a food diary over three days. Day and time of beverage consumption were also recorded. Results: On average, TWI was 1.7 L (SE 21.2) for men and 1.6 L (SE 18.9) for women. More than 75% of participants had inadequate TWI, according to European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommendations. Mean total energy intake (EI) was 1810 kcal/day (SE 11.1), of which 12% was provided by beverages. Water was the most consumed beverage, followed by milk. The contribution of alcoholic drinks to the EI was near 3%. For caloric soft drinks, a relatively low contribution to the EI was obtained, only 2%. Of eight different types of beverages, the variety score was positively correlated with TWI (r = 0.39) and EI (r = 0.23), suggesting that beverage variety is an indicator of higher consumption of food and drinks. Conclusions: The present study demonstrates that well-conducted surveys such as the ANIBES study have the potential to yield rich contextual value data that can emphasize the need to undertake appropriate health and nutrition policies to increase the total water intake at the population level promoting a healthy Mediterranean hydration pattern. PMID:27104564

  10. Changes in the Total Fecal Bacterial Population in Individual Horses Maintained on a Restricted Diet Over 6 Weeks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsty Dougal

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Twelve mature (aged 5–16 years horses and ponies of mixed breed and type were fed restricted (1.25% BM Dry matter quantities of one of two fiber based diets formulated to be iso-caloric. Diet 1 comprised of 0.8% body mass (BM of chaff based complete feed plus 0.45% BM low energy grass hay (the same hay used for both diets. Diet 2 comprised 0.1% BM of a nutrient balancer plus 1.15% BM grass hay. Fecal samples were collected at week 10 and week 16. DNA was extracted and the V1-V2 regions of 16SrDNA were 454-pyrosequenced to investigate the bacterial microbiome of the horse. The two most abundant phyla found in both diets and sampling periods were the Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. There was a clear reduction in Bacteroidetes with a concordant increase in Firmicutes over time. There was a limited degree of stability within the bacterial community of the hindgut of horses, with 65% of bacteria retained, over a 6 week period whilst on a uniform diet. The presence of a core community defined by being present in all samples (each animal/diet combination included in the study and being present at 0.1% relative abundance (or greater was identified. In total 65 operational taxonomic units (OTUs were identified that fit the definition of core making up 21–28% of the total sequences recovered. As with total population the most abundant phyla were the Bacteroidetes followed by the Firmicutes, however there was no obvious shift in phyla due to period. Indeed, when the relative abundance of OTUs was examined across diets and periods there was no significant effect of diet or period alone or in combination on the relative abundance of the core OTUs.

  11. Beverage Consumption Habits and Association with Total Water and Energy Intakes in the Spanish Population: Findings of the ANIBES Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariela Nissensohn

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Inadequate hydration is a public health issue that imposes a significant economic burden. In Spain, data of total water intake (TWI are scarce. There is a clear need for a national study that quantifies water and beverage intakes and explores associations between the types of beverages and energy intakes. Methods: The Anthropometry, Intake and Energy Balance Study ANIBES is a national survey of diet and nutrition conducted among a representative sample of 2285 healthy participants aged 9–75 years in Spain. Food and beverage intakes were assessed in a food diary over three days. Day and time of beverage consumption were also recorded. Results: On average, TWI was 1.7 L (SE 21.2 for men and 1.6 L (SE 18.9 for women. More than 75% of participants had inadequate TWI, according to European Food Safety Authority (EFSA recommendations. Mean total energy intake (EI was 1810 kcal/day (SE 11.1, of which 12% was provided by beverages. Water was the most consumed beverage, followed by milk. The contribution of alcoholic drinks to the EI was near 3%. For caloric soft drinks, a relatively low contribution to the EI was obtained, only 2%. Of eight different types of beverages, the variety score was positively correlated with TWI (r = 0.39 and EI (r = 0.23, suggesting that beverage variety is an indicator of higher consumption of food and drinks. Conclusions: The present study demonstrates that well-conducted surveys such as the ANIBES study have the potential to yield rich contextual value data that can emphasize the need to undertake appropriate health and nutrition policies to increase the total water intake at the population level promoting a healthy Mediterranean hydration pattern.

  12. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  13. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  14. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

    2015-09-08

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments.

  15. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  16. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  17. An Assessment of Factors Affecting Population Growth of the Mountain Plover

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    Stephen J. Dinsmore

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Effective conservation measures should target the most sensitive life history attributes of a species, assuming they are responsive to potential management actions. The Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus is a species of conservation concern with a patchy breeding distribution in western North America. Plovers prefer areas with short vegetation, bare ground, and disturbance for nesting. Current management tools, including grazing and burning, have been used to attract plovers and enhance nesting success. We used a stage-specific matrix model to study the influence of vital rates, e.g., juvenile and adult annual survival, on population growth rate in the Mountain Plover at two breeding sites in Colorado, South Park and Eastern Colorado, and one breeding site in Montana, USA. Our analysis was motivated by a need to 1 better understand the relationship between demographic rates and population growth rate, 2 assess current management tools for the plover by exploring their effect on population growth rate, and 3 identify areas of the plover's population biology where additional demographic work is needed. Stochastic population growth rate was most influenced by adult survival, especially in Montana and South Park, Colorado (elasticities > 0.60, and was least influenced by first-year reproduction (all elasticities < 0.20. The modeled relationships between lambda and each demographic rate were generally weak (r2 < 0.30 with the exception of number of eggs hatched per nest in Eastern Colorado (r2 = 0.63, chick survival in South Park (r2 = 0.40 and Montana (r2 = 0.38, and adult survival in Montana (r2 = 0.36. We examined the predicted increase in lambda that would result from increasing each demographic rate from its mean to the maximum value observed in our simulations. Chick and adult survival showed the greatest increase in lambda while eggs hatched per nest produced the smallest increase. Our results suggest that future conservation efforts should

  18. Effect of fermented total mixed rations on the growth performance, carcass and meat quality characteristics of Hanwoo steers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Tae-Il; Mayakrishnan, Vijayakumar; Lim, Dong-Hyun; Yeon, Jeong-Ha; Baek, Kwang-Soo

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted to assess the effects of fermented total mixed ration (FTMR) on the growth performance, carcass and meat quality traits of Hanwoo steers. The present study evidenced that the FTMR had a strong effect on dry matter intake, body weight, daily gain, slaughter weight and carcass characteristics compared with control animals. The results showed that the dry matter intake (7.17 ± 0.13 kg), average body weight (615.20 ± 112.82 kg), and daily gain (0.56 ± 0.16 kg) were greater in animals receiving FTMR than in control animals (P quality characteristics indicated that cooking loss and the pH values did not vary between control and FTMR treated animals; however, animals in the treated groups (FTMR) had higher meat quality grades, carcass weight (396.13 ± 18.35), fat thickness (13.25 ± 1.75), marbling score (5.63 ± 0.56), meat color (40.06 ± 1.23), crude fat (18.39 ± 1.32) and sensory characteristics (flavor 5.03 ± 0.17; tenderness 4.42 ± 0.33; juiciness 5.10 ± 0.16). Nevertheless, the shear force values decreased significantly in FTMR-treated animals compared with control group steers. Overall, FTMR may not only improve the growth performance, biochemical metabolites, and fatty and acetic acid profiles of steers, but may also enhance the carcass and meat quality characteristics of Hanwoo steers. Regarding economics, our research findings suggest that FTMR-based feeds may enhance Hanwoo steer meat quality at a low cost. © 2017 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  19. A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

  20. Population Structure and Growth of the Threatened Pen Shell, Pinna rudis (Linnaeus, 1758 in a Western Mediterranean Marine Protected Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. NEBOT COLOMER

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Coastal ecosystems are being extensively degraded by human activities. Benthic, slow-growing and long-lived species are highly vulnerable to these impacts. Marine protected areas might avoid biodiversity losses through habitat protection. The pen shell Pinna rudis is a protected species, but scarce data are available on its ecology and biology. The present study is a comprehensive ecological study encompassing several unknown aspects of the growth and inner record in relation to habitat types, density and size distribution. A total of 418 strip transects were conducted by scuba diving in the Marine Protected Area of Cabrera National Park (39.14° N, 2.96° E, during the summers of 2011, 2012 and 2013. Sampling was conducted across different habitats and depths exploring 152,146.35 m2 in total. Densities varied spatially within the park (from 0 to 6.89 ind./100 m2 corresponding to a wide range of sizes and ages. Most pen shells were patchily distributed and mainly concentrated in caves. Two hotspots with high densities represent the highest densities ever recorded worldwide, showing a possible link to high larval accumulation and settlement. The population size structure showed a unimodal distribution with shell width ranging from 6.2 to 25.0 cm, with an average shell width of 16.0 ± 3.4 cm. The absolute growth was asymptotic, with a maximum age and length of 28-31 years and 45 cm, respectively. This study on the biology and ecology of a well-established population of Pinna rudis in the Western Mediterranean could set a baseline for the conservation of this species in other areas.

  1. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  2. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  3. An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population

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    Corey Sparks

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this method, I find that the farming population of Orkney, Scotland, showed less variability in their reproduction and growth rates than the non-farming population during a period of net population decline. I conclude by suggesting that the variable-r method can be used in general cases where the relative growth of subpopulations or subpopulation reproduction is of interest.

  4. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

    2014-01-01

    The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  5. Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Christianson

    Full Text Available The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

  6. Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-07-01

    The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an

  7. Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

    2018-05-01

    Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

  8. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  9. Non-occupational exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth in a general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Andersen, Anne-Marie N; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2010-01-01

    in their residence during pregnancy. The mothers were also asked about smoking habits and alcohol consumption during pregnancy, pre-pregnancy weight, height, parity and occupation. Information on birth weight and gestational age was obtained from national registers. We found that 45% of the mothers had been exposed......Occupational exposure to organic solvents during pregnancy has been associated with reduced fetal growth. Though organic solvents in the form of paint fumes are also found in the home environment, no studies have investigated the effect of such exposure in a general population. We studied...... associations between residential exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth within the Danish National Birth Cohort which consecutively recruited pregnant women from 1996 to 2002 from all over Denmark. Around the 30th pregnancy week, 19,000 mothers were interviewed about use of paint...

  10. Knowledge and attitude towards total knee arthroplasty among the public in Saudi Arabia: a nationwide population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mohrej, Omar A; Alshammari, Faris O; Aljuraisi, Abdulrahman M; Bin Amer, Lujain A; Masuadi, Emad M; Al-Kenani, Nader S

    2018-04-01

    Studies on total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in Saudi Arabia are scarce, and none have reported the knowledge and attitude of the procedure in Saudi Arabia. Our study aims to measure the knowledge and attitude of TKA among the adult Saudi population. To encompass a representative sample of this cross-sectional survey, all 13 administrative areas were used as ready-made geographical clusters. For each cluster, stratified random sampling was performed to maximize participation in the study. In each area, random samples of mobile phone numbers were selected with a probability proportional to the administrative area population size. Sample size calculation was based on the assumption that 50% of the participants would have some level of knowledge, with a 2% margin of error and 95% confidence level. To reach our intended sample size of 1540, we contacted 1722 participants with a response rate of 89.4%. The expected percentage of public knowledge was 50%; however, the actual percentage revealed by this study was much lower (29.7%). A stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to assess the factors that positively affected the knowledge score regarding TKA. Age [P = 0.016 with OR of 0.47], higher income [P = 0.001 with OR of 0.52] and participants with a positive history of TKA or that have known someone who underwent the surgery [P Saudi Arabia concerning TKA, its indications and results. We recommend that doctors use the results of our survey to assess their conversations with their patients, and to determine whether the results of the procedure are adequately clarified.

  11. Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Population growth, movements, and status of the Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd following reintroduction, 1988 - 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gail H. Collins

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus were reintroduced to the Nushagak Peninsula, Alaska in February of 1988 after an absence of more than 100 years. Since reintroduction, herd growth and population dynamics have been monitored closely. At this time, there has been no significant dispersal from the herds' core range. The Nushagak Peninsula Caribou Herd (NPCH grew rapidly from 146 reintroduced individuals to over 1000 in 13 years. Dramatic mean annual growth during the first 6 years (1988-1994 of 38% (r = 0.32 can be attributed to the high percentage of females in the initial reintroduction, high calf production and survival, exceptional range conditions, few predators, and no hunting. However, the populations' exceptional growth (peak counts of 1400 slowed and stabilized between 1996¬1998 and then decreased between 1998 and 2000. Size, body condition and weights of calves captured in 2000 were significantly lower than those captured in 1995 and 1997. Although calf production also decreased from close to 100% (1990-1995 to about 91% (1996-2000, overall calf survival continued to be high. Legal harvest began in 1995, and harvest reports have accounted for approximately 3% of population mortality annually. Although brown bears (Ursus arctos and wolves (Canis lupus are present, the extent of predation is unknown. Mean home range of the NPCH was 674 km2 and group sizes were greatest during post-calving aggregation in July (mean = 127. Caribou population density on the Nushagak Peninsula reached approximately 1.2 caribou/km2 in 1997 before declining to about 1.0 caribou/km2. A range survey in 1994 noted only trace utilization of lichens on the Nushagak Peninsula by caribou. A subsequent survey in 1999 found moderate to severe utilization in 46% of plots, suggesting the reintroduced herd was beginning to alter range condition. Between 1997 and 2000, both calf production and condition of 10-month-old calves declined. Calving has also been delayed

  13. Variation in Use of Pediatric Cardiology Subspecialty Care: A Total Population Study in California, 1983 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, Lisa J; Fernandes, Susan M; Saynina, Olga; Grady, Stafford; Sanders, Lee; Staves, Kelly; Wise, Paul H

    2015-07-07

    American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines emphasize regionalized systems of care for pediatric chronic illness. There remains a paucity of information on the status of regionalized systems of care for pediatric congenital heart disease (CHD). This study evaluated variations in use of pediatric cardiology specialty care centers (PCSCC) for pediatric patients with CHD in California between 1983 and 2011. We performed a retrospective, total population analysis of pediatric CHD patients using the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development unmasked database. PCSCCs were identified by California's Title V program. There were 164,310 discharges meeting inclusion criterion. Discharges from PCSCCs grew from 58% to 88% between 1983 and 2011. Regionalized care was highest for surgical (96%) versus nonsurgical (71%) admissions. Admissions with a public payer increased from 42% (1983) to 61% (2011). Total bed days nearly doubled, and median length of stay increased from 2 to 3 days (nonspecialty care) and from 4 to 5 days (specialty care). There was a decrease in the pediatric CHD in-hospital death rate from 5.1 to 2.3 per 100,000 between 1983 and 2011, and a shift toward a larger percent of deaths occurring in the newborn period. California's inpatient regionalized specialty care of pediatric CHD has increased substantially since 1983, especially for surgical CHD discharges. The death rate has decreased, the number of bed days has increased, and a large proportion of these discharges now have public payers. Health care reform efforts must consider these shifts while protecting advances in regionalization of pediatric CHD care. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Flow Cytometry Total Cell Counts: A Field Study Assessing Microbiological Water Quality and Growth in Unchlorinated Drinking Water Distribution Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, G.; Van der Mark, E. J.; Verberk, J. Q. J. C.; Van Dijk, J. C.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the application of flow cytometry total cell counts (TCCs) as a parameter to assess microbial growth in drinking water distribution systems and to determine the relationships between different parameters describing the biostability of treated water. A one-year sampling program was carried out in two distribution systems in The Netherlands. Results demonstrated that, in both systems, the biomass differences measured by ATP were not significant. TCC differences were also not significant in treatment plant 1, but decreased slightly in treatment plant 2. TCC values were found to be higher at temperatures above 15°C than at temperatures below 15°C. The correlation study of parameters describing biostability found no relationship among TCC, heterotrophic plate counts, and Aeromonas. Also no relationship was found between TCC and ATP. Some correlation was found between the subgroup of high nucleic acid content bacteria and ATP (R 2 = 0.63). Overall, the results demonstrated that TCC is a valuable parameter to assess the drinking water biological quality and regrowth; it can directly and sensitively quantify biomass, detect small changes, and can be used to determine the subgroup of active HNA bacteria that are related to ATP. PMID:23819117

  15. Flow Cytometry Total Cell Counts: A Field Study Assessing Microbiological Water Quality and Growth in Unchlorinated Drinking Water Distribution Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the application of flow cytometry total cell counts (TCCs as a parameter to assess microbial growth in drinking water distribution systems and to determine the relationships between different parameters describing the biostability of treated water. A one-year sampling program was carried out in two distribution systems in The Netherlands. Results demonstrated that, in both systems, the biomass differences measured by ATP were not significant. TCC differences were also not significant in treatment plant 1, but decreased slightly in treatment plant 2. TCC values were found to be higher at temperatures above 15°C than at temperatures below 15°C. The correlation study of parameters describing biostability found no relationship among TCC, heterotrophic plate counts, and Aeromonas. Also no relationship was found between TCC and ATP. Some correlation was found between the subgroup of high nucleic acid content bacteria and ATP (R2=0.63. Overall, the results demonstrated that TCC is a valuable parameter to assess the drinking water biological quality and regrowth; it can directly and sensitively quantify biomass, detect small changes, and can be used to determine the subgroup of active HNA bacteria that are related to ATP.

  16. Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Östergård, Hannah; Ehrlén, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult...... to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring...... shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots...

  17. Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the human genome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williamson, Scott H.; Hernandez, Ryan; Fledel-Alon, Adi

    2005-01-01

    Natural selection and demographic forces can have similar effects on patterns of DNA polymorphism. Therefore, to infer selection from samples of DNA sequences, one must simultaneously account for demographic effects. Here we take a model-based approach to this problem by developing predictions fo......-specific methods, and (iii) strong evidence for very recent population growth....... for patterns of polymorphism in the presence of both population size change and natural selection. If data are available from different functional classes of variation, and a priori information suggests that mutations in one of those classes are selectively neutral, then the putatively neutral class can...... this method to a large polymorphism data set from 301 human genes and find (i) widespread negative selection acting on standing nonsynonymous variation, (ii) that the fitness effects of nonsynonymous mutations are well predicted by several measures of amino acid exchangeability, especially site...

  18. Population movements to a growth-pole: the case of Hosur, Tamil Nadu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heins, J J; Meijer, E N

    1990-08-01

    This study examines the characteristics of population growth in Hosur, a small town in Tamil Nadu, India. "A special feature of the population in Hosur is the phenomenon of bachelors living together, mostly young men who have migrated from big cities. Commuting is not important in the mobility pattern of Hosur, less than ten per cent of employees in the industrial areas travelling daily from outside. Only one-third of the non-migrant labour force has access to the more attractive jobs in the modern factories, while short-term wage labour plays an important role in the labour structure of commuters. The demographic future of Hosur is not connected strongly with commuting patterns, but more with the spatial behaviour of the bachelors." excerpt

  19. Contributions of vital rates to growth of a protected population of American black bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, M.S.; Pacifici, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Powell, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    Analyses of large, long-lived animals suggest that adult survival generally has the potential to contribute more than reproduction to population growth rate (??), but because survival varies little, high variability in reproduction can have a greater influence. This pattern has been documented for several species of large mammals, but few studies have evaluated such contributions of vital rates to ?? for American black bears (Ursus americanus). We used variance-based perturbation analyses (life table response experiments, LTRE) and analytical sensitivity and elasticity analyses to examine the actual and potential contributions of variation of vital rates to variation in growth rate (??) of a population of black bears inhabiting the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, using a 22-year dataset. We found that recruitment varied more than other vital rates; LTRE analyses conducted over several time intervals thus indicated that recruitment generally contributed at least as much as juvenile and adult survival to observed variation in ??, even though the latter 2 vital rates had the greater potential to affect ??. Our findings are consistent with predictions from studies on polar bears (U. maritimus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), but contrast with the few existing studies on black bears in ways that suggest levels of protection from human-caused mortality might explain whether adult survival or recruitment contribute most to variation in ?? for this species. We hypothesize that ?? is most strongly influenced by recruitment in protected populations where adult survival is relatively high and constant, whereas adult survival will most influence ?? for unprotected populations. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

  20. A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Kling, Ryan

    2014-12-01

    For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  2. In the national interest: the PCSD puts population growth back on the agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, B

    1995-01-01

    In 1972, President Nixon launched the Rockefeller Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The US population has grown by more than 50 million people since 1972. In 1995, a report by the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) states that failure on the part of the US to stabilize its population will jeopardize any effort to achieve sustainable development. As a follow-up to the Earth Summit, President Clinton established the PCSD in 1993 to identify ways to encourage sustainable development in the US. The Council has 25 members representing government, business, and public interest organizations and has 8 critical issues task forces, including Energy, Transportation, Sustainable Community, Education and Outreach, Natural Resources, Eco Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture. Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, spearheaded efforts to create a task force on the twin issues of population and consumption. The Population and Consumption Task Force, which began its official discussions in the spring of 1994, aimed to solicit public comment on critical population-related issues. These meetings sought both general public and expert participation on subjects such as teen pregnancy, resource use, and economic indicators. Among these recommendations are improving access to family planning services for all Americans; focusing on special efforts to reduce teen pregnancy and childbearing; improving external factors such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunities for girls and women; and reducing immigration to the US. A combination of actions are needed, including a tax shift from labor and earnings to natural resource use; development of environmentally sound technologies; and public understanding of the importance of sustainable life style and consumption choices. Individual and community action is crucial since the current Congress is unlikely to adopt policies to promote sustainable development without significant

  3. Contribution of Water from Food and Fluids to Total Water Intake: Analysis of a French and UK Population Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guelinckx, Isabelle; Tavoularis, Gabriel; König, Jürgen; Morin, Clémentine; Gharbi, Hakam; Gandy, Joan

    2016-10-14

    Little has been published on the contribution of food moisture (FM) to total water intake (TWI); therefore, the European Food Safety Authority assumed FM to contribute 20%-30% to TWI. The aim of the present analysis was to estimate and compare TWI, the percentage of water from FM and from fluids in population samples of France and UK. Data from 2 national nutrition surveys (Enquête Comportements et Consommations Alimentaires en France (CCAF) 2013 and the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) 2008/2009-2011/2012) were analyzed for TWI and the contribution of water from FM and fluids. Children and adults TWI were significantly lower in France than in the UK. The contribution of water from foods was lower in the UK than in France (27% vs. 36%). As TWI increased, the proportion of water from fluids increased, suggesting that low drinkers did not compensate by increasing intake of water-rich foods. In addition, 80%-90% of the variance in TWI was explained by differences in water intake from fluids. More data on the contribution of FM to TWI is needed to develop more robust dietary recommendations on TWI and guidance on fluid intake for the general public.

  4. Language growth in children with heterogeneous language disorders: a population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbury, Courtenay Frazier; Vamvakas, George; Gooch, Debbie; Baird, Gillian; Charman, Tony; Simonoff, Emily; Pickles, Andrew

    2017-10-01

    Language development has been characterised by significant individual stability from school entry. However, the extent to which trajectories of language growth vary in children with language disorder as a function of co-occurring developmental challenges is a question of theoretical import, with implications for service provision. SCALES employed a population-based survey design with sample weighting procedures to estimate growth in core language skills over the first three years of school. A stratified sample (n = 529) received comprehensive assessment of language, nonverbal IQ, and social, emotional and behavioural difficulties at 5-6 years of age and 95% of the sample (n = 499) were assessed again at ages 7-8. Language growth was measured using both raw and standard scores in children with typical development, children with language disorder of unknown origin, and children with language disorders associated with a known clinical condition and/or intellectual disability. Overall, language was stable at the individual level (estimated ICC = 0.95) over the first three years of school. Linear mixed effects models highlighted steady growth in language raw scores across all three groups, including those with multiple developmental challenges. There was little evidence, however, that children with language disorders were narrowing the gap with peers (z-scores). Adjusted models indicated that while nonverbal ability, socioeconomic status and social, emotional and behavioural deficits predicted initial language score (intercept), none predicted language growth (slope). These findings corroborate previous studies suggesting stable language trajectories after ages 5-6 years, but add considerably to previous work by demonstrating similar developmental patterns in children with additional nonverbal cognitive deficits, social, emotional, and behavioural challenges, social disadvantage or clinical diagnoses. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and

  5. Ethnic differences in fetal size and growth in a multi-ethnic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sletner, Line; Rasmussen, Svein; Jenum, Anne Karen; Nakstad, Britt; Jensen, Odd Harald Rognerud; Vangen, Siri

    2015-09-01

    Impaired or excessive fetal growth is associated with adverse short- and long-term health outcomes that differ between ethnic groups. We explored ethnic differences in fetal size and growth from mid pregnancy until birth. Data are from the multi-ethnic STORK-Groruddalen study, a population-based, prospective cohort of 823 pregnant women and their offspring in Oslo, Norway. Measures were z-scores of estimated fetal weight (EFW), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL), in gestational week 24, 32 and 37, measured by ultrasound, and similar measures at birth. Differences in fetal size and growth were assessed using separate Linear Mixed Models including all four time points, with ethnic Europeans as reference. In week 24 South Asian fetuses had smaller AC, but larger FL than Europeans, and slightly lower EFW (-0.17 SD (-0.33, -0.01), p=0.04). Middle East/North African fetuses also had larger FL, but similar AC, and hence slightly higher EFW (0.18 (0.003, 0.36), p=0.05). Both groups had slower growth of AC, FL and EFW from this time until birth, and had -0.61 SD (-0.73, -0.49) and -0.28 SD (-0.41, -0.15) lower birth weight respectively. Ethnic East Asians, on the other hand, were smaller throughout pregnancy and had -0.58 SD (-0.82, -0.34) lower birth weight. Significant ethnic differences remained after adjusting for maternal factors. We observed ethnic differences in fetal size and body proportions already in gestational week 24, and in fetal growth from this time until birth, which were only partly explained by key maternal factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Population growth, trophic level, and reproductive biology of two congeneric archer fishes (Toxotes chatareus, Hamilton 1822 and Toxotes jaculatrix, Pallas 1767) inhabiting Malaysian coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, K D; Bakar, Y; Samat, A; Zaidi, C C; Aziz, A; Mazlan, A G

    2009-12-01

    Population growth, trophic level, and some aspects of reproductive biology of two congeneric archer fish species, Toxotes chatareus and Toxotes jaculatrix, collected from Johor coastal waters, Malaysia, were studied. Growth pattern by length-weight relationship (W=aL(b)) for the sexes differed, and exhibited positive allometric growth (male, female and combined sexes of T. chatareus; female and combined sexes of T. jaculatrix) and isometric growth (male samples of T. jaculatrix only). Trophic levels of both species were analyzed based on 128 specimens. The results show that, in both species, crustaceans and insects were the most abundant prey items, and among crustaceans the red clawed crab Sesarma bidens and Formicidae family insects were the most represented taxa. The estimated mean trophic levels for T. chatareus and T. jaculatrix were 3.422+/-0.009 and 3.420+/-0.020, respectively, indicating that they are largely carnivores. Fecundity of T. chatareus ranged from 38 354 to 147 185 eggs for females with total length ranging from 14.5 to 22.5 cm and total body weight from 48.7 to 270.2 g, and T. jaculatrix 25 251 to 150 456 eggs for females with total length ranging from 12.2 to 23.0 cm and total body weight from 25.7 to 275.0 g. Differences in values of gonadosomatic and hepatosomatic indexes calculated for both species in this study may have resulted from uneven sample size ranges.

  7. Population growth rate and genetic variability of small and large populations of Red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) following multigenerational exposure to copper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laskowski, Ryszard; Radwan, Jacek; Kuduk, Katarzyna; Mendrok, Magdalena; Kramarz, Paulina

    2015-07-01

    We reared large (1000 individuals) and small (20 individuals) populations of Tribolium castaneum on diet contaminated with copper in order to determine if the size of a population affects its ability to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. After 10 generations, we used microsatellite markers to estimate and subsequently compare the genetic variability of the copper-treated populations with that of the control populations, which were reared on uncontaminated medium. Additionally, we conducted a full cross-factorial experiment which evaluated the effects of 10 generations of "pre-exposure" to copper on a population's fitness in control and copper-contaminated environments. In order to distinguish results potentially arising from genetic adaptation from those due to non-genetic effects associated to parental exposure to copper, we subjected also F11 generation, originating from parents not exposed to copper, to the same cross-factorial experiment. The effects of long-term exposure to copper depended on population size: the growth rates of small populations that were pre-exposed to copper were inhibited compared to those of small populations reared in uncontaminated environments. Large Cu-exposed populations had a higher growth rate in the F10 generation compared to the control groups, while the growth rate of the F11 generation was unaffected by copper exposure history. The only factor that had a significant effect on genetic variability was population size, but this was to be expected given the large difference in the number of individuals between large and small populations. Neither copper contamination nor its interaction with population size affected the number of microsatellite alleles retained in the F10 generation.

  8. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  9. Fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems: population-based sibling comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Class, Quetzal A; Rickert, Martin E; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

    2014-11-01

    It is unclear whether associations between fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems are consistent with causal mechanisms. To estimate the extent to which associations are a result of unmeasured confounding factors using a sibling-comparison approach. We predicted outcomes from continuously measured birth weight in a Swedish population cohort (n = 3 291 773), while controlling for measured and unmeasured confounding. In the population, lower birth weight (⩽ 2500 g) increased the risk of all outcomes. Sibling-comparison models indicated that lower birth weight independently predicted increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (hazard ratio for low birth weight = 2.44, 95% CI 1.99-2.97) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Although attenuated, associations remained for psychotic or bipolar disorder and educational problems. Associations with suicide attempt, substance use problems and social welfare receipt, however, were fully attenuated in sibling comparisons. Results suggest that fetal growth, and factors that influence it, contribute to psychiatric and socioeconomic problems. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

  10. Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-A Is Associated with Chronic Mountain Sickness in the Andean Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinoza, Jose R.; Alvarez, Giancarlo; León-Velarde, Fabiola; Ju Preciado, Hugo F.; Macarlupu, Jose-Luis; Rivera-Ch, Maria; Rodriguez, Jorge; Favier, Judith; Gimenez-Roqueplo, Anne-Paule

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Espinoza, Jose R., Giancarlo Alvarez, Fabiola León-Velarde, Hugo F. Ju Preciado, Jose-Luis Macarlupu, Maria Rivera-Ch, Jorge Rodriguez, Judith Favier, Anne-Paule Gimenez-Roqueplo, and Jean-Paul Richalet. Vascular endothelial growth factor-A is associated with chronic mountain sickness in Andean population. High Alt Med Biol. 15:146–154, 2014.—A study of chronic mountain sickness (CMS) with a candidate gene—vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA)—was carried out in a Peruvian population living at high altitude in Cerro de Pasco (4380 m). The study was performed by genotyping of 11 tag SNPs encompassing 2.2 kb of region of VEGFA gene in patients with a diagnosis of CMS (n=131; 49.1±12.7 years old) and unrelated healthy controls (n=84; 47.2±13.4 years old). The VEGFA tag SNP rs3025033 was found associated with CMS (p0.36, p<0.01), suggesting selection is operating on the VEGF gene. Our results suggest that VEGFA is associated with CMS in long-term residents at high altitude in the Peruvian Andes. PMID:24971768

  11. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  12. The impact of population ageing on the social security expenditure and economic growth in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruo, N

    1987-05-01

    The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined. (SUMMARY IN JPN) excerpt

  13. Identification of QTLs for shoot and root growth under ionic-osmotic stress in Lotus, using a RIL population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quero, Gastón; Gutíerrez, Lucía; Lascano, Ramiro

    2014-01-01

    The genus Lotus includes a group of forage legume species including genotypes of agronomic interest and model species. In this work, an experimental hydroponic growth system allowed the discrimination of growth responses to ionic-osmotic stress in a population of recombinant inbred lines (RILs...

  14. Use of vitamin supplements and risk of total cancer and cardiovascular disease among the Japanese general population: A population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishihara Junko

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the popular use of vitamin supplements and several prospective cohort studies investigating their effect on cancer incidence and cardiovascular disease (CVD, scientific data supporting their benefits remain controversial. Inconsistent results may be partly explained by the fact that use of supplements is an inconsistent behavior in individuals. We examined whether vitamin supplement use patterns affect cancer and CVD risk in a population-based cohort study in Japan. Methods A total of 28,903 men and 33,726 women in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study cohort, who answered questions about vitamin supplement use in the first survey from 1990-1994 and the second survey from 1995-1998, were categorized into four groups (never use, past use, recent use, and consistent use and followed to the end of 2006 for cancer and 2005 for CVD. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were used to describe the relative risks of cancer and CVD associated with vitamin supplement use. Results During follow-up, 4501 cancer and 1858 CVD cases were identified. Multivariate adjusted analysis revealed no association of any pattern of vitamin supplement use with the risk of cancer and CVD in men. In women, consistent use was associated with lower risk of CVD (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.89, whereas past (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.33 and recent use (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.52 were associated with higher risk of cancer. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first prospective cohort study to examine simultaneously the associations between vitamin supplement use patterns and risk of cancer and CVD. This prospective cohort study demonstrated that vitamin supplement use has little effect on the risk of cancer or CVD in men. In women, however, consistent vitamin supplement use might reduce the risk of CVD. Elevated risk of cancer associated with past and recent use of vitamin supplements in women may be partly

  15. Effect of crop development on biogenic emissions from plant populations grown in closed plant growth chambers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, J. H.; Stutte, G. W.; Wheeler, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The Biomass Production Chamber at John F. Kennedy Space Center is a closed plant growth chamber facility that can be used to monitor the level of biogenic emissions from large populations of plants throughout their entire growth cycle. The head space atmosphere of a 26-day-old lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Waldmann's Green) stand was repeatedly sampled and emissions identified and quantified using GC-mass spectrometry. Concentrations of dimethyl sulphide, carbon disulphide, alpha-pinene, furan and 2-methylfuran were not significantly different throughout the day; whereas, isoprene showed significant differences in concentration between samples collected in light and dark periods. Volatile organic compounds from the atmosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Yecora Rojo) were analysed and quantified from planting to maturity. Volatile plant-derived compounds included 1-butanol, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, nonanal, benzaldehyde, tetramethylurea, tetramethylthiourea, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran. Concentrations of volatiles were determined during seedling establishment, vegetative growth, anthesis, grain fill and senescence and found to vary depending on the developmental stage. Atmospheric concentrations of benzaldehyde and nonanal were highest during anthesis, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran concentrations were greatest during grain fill, and the concentration of the tetramethylurea peaked during senescence.

  16. Morphometry, growth and reproduction of an Atlantic population of the razor clam Ensis macha (Molina, 1782

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro J. Barón

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Ensis macha is a razor clam distributed throughout the coasts of southern Argentina and Chile. Even though it represents a valuable fishery resource, the exploitation of its Atlantic populations has begun only in recent years. This study provides the first estimates of growth rate, an interpretation of the reproductive cycle on the coast of the northern Argentine Patagonia and an analysis of the species morphometry. Growth was estimated by direct observation of growth rings on the valves by two observers. The reproductive cycle was interpreted by the analysis of temporal change of oocyte size frequency distributions. Parameter estimations for the von Bertalanffy equations respectively obtained by observers 1 and 2 were 154 and 153.7 mm for L?, 0.25 and 0.20 yr-1 for k, and -0.08 and -0.72 yr for t0. Two spawning peaks were detected: September-November 1999 and May-June 2000. However, mature females were found all year round. An abrupt change in the relationship between shell length and height was detected at 11.2 mm length.

  17. Effects of probiotic supplement ( and on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population of weaning rabbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanh Lam Phuoc

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study aimed to investigate the effects of single or/and double strains of probiotic supplement on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population in distal gastrointestinal tract (GIT of weaning rabbits. Methods Sixty-four weaning (28 days old New Zealand White rabbits were randomly distributed into four groups with treatments including: basal diet without probiotic supplement (control or supplemented as follows: 1×106 cfu/g B. subtilis (BS group, 1×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (LA group, or 0.5×106 cfu/g B. subtilis plus 0.5×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (BL group. During the research, the male and female rabbits were fed separately. Body weight of the rabbits was recorded at 28, 42, and 70 d of age. Results There was an increase (p<0.05 in body weight gain for the LA group at 42 d. Rabbits fed BL responsed with a greater growth (p<0.05 and better feed conversion ratio (p<0.05 than those fed with no probiotic. Digestibility coefficients of dry matter, organic matter, crude protein, neutral detergent fiber, and gross energy were higher (p<0.05 in LA and BL groups than those in the control group. Male rabbits had higher (p<0.05 Bacilli spp. and Coliformis spp. in the ileum than female rabbits. Rabbits supplemented with BS had greater (p<0.05 numbers of bacilli in all intestinal segments than those receiving no probiotic, whereas intestinal Lactobacilli populations were greater (p<0.001 in the LA and BL diets compared to control. Average intestinal coliform populations were lowest (p<0.05 in the rabbits supplemented with LA as compared to those fed the control and BS. Conclusion Supplementation of L. acidophilus alone or in combination with B. subtilis at a half of dose could enhance number of gut beneficial bacteria populations, nutrient digestibility, cecal fermentation, feed efficiency, and growth performance, but rabbits receiving only B. subtilis alone were not different from the controls without probiotic.

  18. Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

    2018-02-16

    This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

  19. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asharaf Abdul Salam

    Full Text Available The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii explore its components, and (iii understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012 in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  20. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  1. Modelling the impact of sanitation, population growth and urbanization on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters—a case study for Bangladesh and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeulen, Lucie C.; de Kraker, Jelske; Hofstra, Nynke; Kroeze, Carolien; Medema, Gertjan

    2015-09-01

    Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite that can cause diarrhoea. Human faeces are an important source of Cryptosporidium in surface waters. We present a model to study the impact of sanitation, urbanization and population growth on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters. We build on a global model by Hofstra et al (2013 Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9) and zoom into Bangladesh and India as illustrative case studies. The model is most sensitive to changes in oocyst excretion and infection rate, and to assumptions on the share of faeces reaching the surface water for different sanitation types. We find urban centres to be hotspots of human Cryptosporidium emissions. We estimate that 53% (Bangladesh) and 91% (India) of total emissions come from urban areas. 50% of oocysts come from only 8% (Bangladesh) and 3% (India) of the country area. In the future, population growth and urbanization may further deteriorate water quality in Bangladesh and India, despite improved sanitation. Under our ‘business as usual’ (‘sanitation improvements’) scenario, oocyst emissions will increase by a factor 2.0 (1.2) for India and 2.9 (1.1) for Bangladesh between 2010 and 2050. Population growth, urbanization and sanitation development are important processes to consider for large scale water quality modelling.

  2. Use of Hip Arthroscopy and Risk of Conversion to Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Population-Based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schairer, William W; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; McCormick, Frank; Lyman, Stephen; Mayman, David

    2016-04-01

    To use population-level data to (1) evaluate the conversion rate of total hip arthroplasty (THA) within 2 years of hip arthroscopy and (2) assess the influence of age, arthritis, and obesity on the rate of conversion to THA. We used the State Ambulatory Surgery Databases and State Inpatient Databases for California and Florida from 2005 through 2012, which contain 100% of patient visits. Hip arthroscopy patients were tracked for subsequent primary THA within 2 years. Out-of-state patients and patients with less than 2 years follow-up were excluded. Multivariate analysis identified risks for subsequent hip arthroplasty after arthroscopy. We identified 7,351 patients who underwent hip arthroscopy with 2 years follow-up. The mean age was 43.9 ± 13.7 years, and 58.8% were female patients. Overall, 11.7% of patients underwent THA conversion within 2 years. The conversion rate was lowest in patients aged younger than 40 years (3.0%) and highest in the 60- to 69-year-old group (35.0%) (P arthroscopy. Patients treated at high-volume hip arthroscopy centers had a lower THA conversion rate than those treated at low-volume centers (15.1% v 9.7%, P arthroscopy is performed in patients of various ages, including middle-aged and elderly patients. Older patients have a higher rate of conversion to THA, as do patients with osteoarthritis or obesity. Level III, retrospective comparative study. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictors for adolescent visits to practitioners of complementary and alternative medicine in a total population (the Young-HUNT Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aslak Steinsbekk

    Full Text Available AIM: To investigate the factors predicting adolescent visits to practitioners of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study conducted in an adolescent total population in Central Norway (The Nord-Trøndelag Health Studies (HUNT. In Young-HUNT 1, all inhabitants aged 13 to 19 years (N = 8944, 89% response rate were invited to participate, and the youngest group (13 to 15 year olds was surveyed again 4 years later (Young-HUNT 2, N = 2429, 82% response rate. The participants completed a comprehensive questionnaire on health and life style which included a question regarding visits to a CAM practitioner in the last 12 months. RESULTS: One in eleven (8.7%, 95%CI 7.6-9.8% had visited a CAM practitioner, an increase of 26% in 4 years (1.8% points. The final multivariable analysis predicted increased odds of an adolescent becoming a CAM visitor four years later (p<0.05 if she or he had previously visited a CAM practitioner (adjOR 3.4, had musculoskeletal pain (adjOR 1.5, had migraine (adjOR 2.3, used asthma medicines (adjOR 1.8 or suffered from another disease lasting more than three months (adjOR 2.1. Being male predicted reduced odds of visiting a CAM practitioner in the future (adjOR 0.6. CONCLUSION: We can conclude from this study that future visits to a CAM practitioner are predicted by both predisposing factors (being female, having visited a CAM practitioner previously and medical need factors (having had musculoskeletal pain, migraine, used asthma medicines or experienced another disease lasting more than three months. None of the specific variables associated with CAM visits were predictive for CAM visits four years later.

  4. Operculina from the northwestern Pacific (Sesoko Island, Japan) Species Differentiation, Population Dynamics, Growth and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woeger, Julia; Eder, Wolfgang; Kinoshita, Shunichi; Briguglio, Antonino; Hohenegger, Johann

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades larger benthic foraminifera have gained importance as indicator species and are used in a variety of applications, from ecological monitoring, studying the effects of ocean acidification, or reconstructing paleoenvironments. They significantly contribute to the carbonate budget of costal areas and are invaluable tools in biostratigraphy. Even before their advancement as bioindicators, laboratory experiments have been conducted to investigate the effects of various ecological parameters on community composition, biology of single species, or investigating the effects of salinity and temperature on stable isotope composition of the foraminiferal test, to name only a few. The natural laboratory approach (continuous sampling over a period of more than one year) was conducted at the island of Sesoko (Okinawa, Japan). in combination with µ-CT scanning was used to reveal population dynamics of 3 different morphotypes of Operculina. The clarification of reproductive cycles as well as generation and size abundances were used to calculate natural growth models. Best fit was achieved using Bertalanffy and Michaelis-Menten functions. Exponential-, logistic-, generalized logistic-, Gompertz-function yielded weaker fits, when compared by coefficient of determination as well as Akaike Information criterion. The resulting growth curves and inferred growth rates were in turn used to evaluate the quality of a laboratory cultivation experiment carried out simultaneously over a period of 15 months. Culturing parameters such as temperature, light intensities, salinity and pH and light-dark duration were continuously adapted to measurements in the field. The average investigation time in culture was 77days. 13 Individuals lived more than 200 days, 3 reproduced asexually and one sexually. 14% of 186 Individuals were lost, while 22% could not be kept alive for more than one month. Growth curves also represent an instrumental source of information for the various

  5. Rate and Time Trend of Perinatal, Infant, Maternal Mortality, Natality and Natural Population Growth in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    Aim: The aim of work has been the presentation of the rate and time trends of some indicators of the heath condition of mothers and children in Kosovo: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. Methods: The data were taken from: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. Results: The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Conclusion: Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a

  6. Customized versus population-based birth weight charts for the detection of neonatal growth and perinatal morbidity in a cross-sectional study of term neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carberry, Angela E; Raynes-Greenow, Camille H; Turner, Robin M; Jeffery, Heather E

    2013-10-15

    Customized birth weight charts that incorporate maternal characteristics are now being adopted into clinical practice. However, there is controversy surrounding the value of these charts in the prediction of growth and perinatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the use of customized charts in predicting growth, defined by body fat percentage, and perinatal morbidity. A total of 581 term (≥37 weeks' gestation) neonates born in Sydney, Australia, in 2010 were included. Body fat percentage measurements were taken by using air displacement plethysmography. Objective composite measurements of perinatal morbidity were used to identify neonates who had poor outcomes; these data were extracted from medical records. The value of customized charts was assessed by calculating positive predictive values, negative predictive values, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Customized versus population-based charts did not improve the prediction of either low body fat percentage (59% vs. 66% positive predictive value and 87% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively) or high body fat percentage (48% vs. 53% positive predictive value and 90% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively). Customized charts were not better than population-based charts at predicting perinatal morbidity (for customized charts, odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.04; for population-based charts, odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.05) per percentile decrease in birth weight. Customized birth weight charts do not provide significant improvements over population-based charts in predicting neonatal growth and morbidity.

  7. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  8. Reproduction, abundance, and population growth for a fisher (Pekania pennanti) population in the Sierra National Forest, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Reginald H. Barrett; Kathryn L. Purcell; Craig M. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    In the west coast region of the United States, fishers (Pekania pennanti) exist in 2 remnant populations—1 in northern California and 1 in the southern Sierra Nevada, California—and 3 reintroduced populations (western Washington, southern Oregon, and northeastern California). The West Coast Distinct Population Segment of fishers encompassing all of...

  9. Morbidity, rickets and long-bone growth in post-medieval Britain--a cross-population analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinhasi, R; Shaw, P; White, B; Ogden, A R

    2006-01-01

    Vitamin D deficiency rickets is associated with skeletal deformities including swollen rib junctions, bowing of the legs, and the flaring and fraying of the wrist and long-bone metaphyses. There is, however, scarce information on the direct effect of rickets on skeletal growth in either present or past populations. The study investigated the effect of vitamin D deficiency rickets on long-bone growth in two post-medieval skeletal populations from East London (Broadgate and Christ Church Spitalfields). Subsequently, inter-population growth variations in relation to non-specific environmental stress (dental enamel defects), industrialization, urbanization and socio-economic status during infancy (birth to 3 years) and early childhood (3-7 years) were examined. Data on long-bone diaphyseal length dimensions and stress indicators of 234 subadults from Anglo-Saxon, late medieval and post-medieval archaeological skeletal samples were analysed using both linear and non-linear growth models. Rickets had no effect on the growth curves for any of the long bones studied. However, pronounced variations in growth between the four populations were noted, mainly during infancy. The diaphyseal length of long bones of Broadgate were significantly smaller-per-age than those of Spitalfields and the other samples up to the age of 4 years, and were associated with a high prevalence of enamel defects during early infancy. Socio-economic status, rather than urbanization, industrialization or rickets, was the central factor behind the observed differences in growth among the post-medieval populations. The observed inter-population growth variations were only significant during infancy.

  10. Monitoring dolphins in an urban marine system: total and effective population size estimates of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ina C Ansmann

    Full Text Available Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus. These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008-2010. Abundance (N was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Ne c. A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554 ± 22.2 (SE (95% CI: 510-598 was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193 ± 6.4 (SE (95% CI: 181-207, while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446 ± 56 (SE (95% CI: 336-556 individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Ne c = 56, 95% CI: 33-128 raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5% declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  11. Comparison of Muscle Recovery Following Bi-cruciate Substituting versus Posterior Stabilized Total Knee Arthroplasty in the Asian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takubo, Akihito; Ryu, Keinosuke; Iriuchishima, Takanori; Tokuhashi, Yasuaki

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare muscle recovery in the lower extremities following the newly developed bi-cruciate substituting (BCS) to posterior stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the Asian population. Forty-one knees in 41 patients undergoing BCS-TKA (41 female, average age: 71 ± 8.8) and 34 knees in 34 patients undergoing PS-TKA (33 female, average age: 73 ± 7.2) were included in this study. The maximum isometric power of the quadriceps and hamstring muscles was measured preoperatively, and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery using a handheld dynamometer. Postoperative muscle recovery was calculated regarding preoperative muscle power as 100%. Pre- and postoperative range of knee motion, femorotibial angle, and clinical scores (Knee Society score and function score) were also compared. No significant difference in sex, age, preoperative quadriceps, or preoperative hamstring power was observed between the BCS and PS-TKA groups. When regarding the preoperative muscle power as 100%, quadriceps power at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months following BCS-TKA was 61.2 ± 22%, 86.3 ± 28.3%, 97 ± 27.4%, and 112.4 ± 30.8%, respectively. Quadriceps power at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months following PS-TKA was 72.4 ± 20.8%, 84 ± 16.9%, 95 ± 20.7%, and 110.8 ± 27%, respectively. Hamstring power at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months following BCS-TKA was 96.3 ± 30%, 111.4 ± 35%, 120 ± 37%, and 125 ± 31%, respectively. Hamstring power at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months following PS-TKA was 95 ± 25%, 112.4 ± 27%, 117 ± 38.5%, and 120.4 ± 18.5%, respectively. No significant difference in muscle power recovery was observed at 3 ( p  = 0.995), 6 ( p  = 0.944), and 12 ( p  = 0.917) months after surgery between the two groups. No significant difference of the clinical score was observed between the groups (Knee Society score: p  = 0.479, function score: p  = 0.342). No significant

  12. Study on the Varying Patterns of Total Phospholipids, Selenium, Phosphorus, Reducing Sugar and Total Sugar, Hydrolyzed Amino Acids in the Velvet Antler of Northeast Sika Deer in Growth Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Shu-li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the varying patterns of total phospholipids, selenium, phosphorus, reducing sugar and total sugar, hydrolyzed amino acids in the velvet antler of Northeast sika deer in growth period were evaluated. Eighteen Northeast sika deer were allocated into 6 groups according to the antler shedding time. Results indicated that there was significant difference of the selenium content between any two of the six groups (P<0.05 except that of Group 1 and Group 2 or Group 5 and Group 6. About the phosphorus there was significant difference between any two of the six groups (P<0.05 except that of Group 4 and Group 5 or Group 2 and Group 3 or Group 1 and Group 2. Group 6 had the lowest total Phospholipids content. Both of the reducing sugar and total sugar showed an increasing pattern initially and then decrease gradually.

  13. Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selene Loibel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.Neste trabalho estudamos o problema de identificação do modelo de uma população utilizando um modelo dinâmico discreto baseado no modelo de crescimento de Richards. A população é submetida a intervenções devido ao consumo, como no caso de caça ou na criação de animais. A identificação do modelo permite-nos estimar a probabilidade ou o tempo médio de ocorrência para que se atinja um certo número populacional. A inferência paramétrica dos modelos é obtida através da técnica de perfil de máxima verossimilhança como desenvolvida neste trabalho. O método de identificação desenvolvido pode ser aplicado para avaliar a produtividade de criação animal ou o risco de extinção de uma população autóctone. Ele foi aplicado aos dados da população global de gado de corte bovino brasileiro, e é utilizado na investigação de a população atingir um certo número desejado de cabeças.

  14. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

  15. Insulin-like growth factor I and anthropometric parameters in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedrich, N; Jørgensen, Torben; Juul, A

    2012-01-01

    study was to analyse the associations between anthropometric measures and IGF-I levels in a population-based sample. From the Danish cross-sectional Health2006 study 3,328 subjects (1,835 women; 1,493 men) aged 19-72 years were included in the analyses. Serum IGF-I levels were determined...... consumption, smoking and physical activity. Our large cross-sectional study suggests that IGF-I may serve as the link between obesity and mortality although any causal relation cannot be inferred and longitudinal analyses are needed to clarify the causal relation.......During the last decade several studies indicated that low insulin-like growth factor (IGF) I levels are related to higher risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Obesity represents one further main cardiovascular risk factor which might also be related to IGF-I. The objective of the present...

  16. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Bram W. G.; Faillace, Cara A.; Lafond, Jonathan J.; Baumgarten, Joni M.; Mozdzer, Thomas J.; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J.; Grabosky, Jason C.; Ehrenfeld, Joan G.

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Methods Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Key Results Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. Conclusions In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory

  17. Exploitation of geospatial techniques for monitoring metropolitan population growth and classification of landcover features

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almas, A.S.; Rahim, C.A.

    2006-01-01

    The present research relates to the exploitation of Remote Sensing and GIS techniques for studying the metropolitan expansion and land use/ landcover classification of Lahore, the second largest city of Pakistan where urbanization is taking place at a striking rate with inadequate development of the requisite infrastructure. Such sprawl gives rise to the congestion, pollution and commuting time issues. The metropolitan expansion, based on growth direction and distance from the city centre, was observed for a period of about thirty years. The classification of the complex spatial assemblage of urban environment and its expanding precincts was done using the temporally spaced satellite images geo-referenced to a common coordinate system and census data. Spatial categorization of urban landscape involving densely populated residential areas, sparsely inhibited regions, bare soil patches, water bodies, vegetation, Parks, and mixed features was done with the help of satellite images. Resultantly, remote sensing and GIS techniques were found very efficient and effective for studying the metropolitan growth patterns along with the classification of urban features into prominent categories. In addition, census data augments the usefulness of spatial techniques for carrying out such studies. (author)

  18. Involvement of Fibroblast Growth Factor Receptor Genes in Benign Prostate Hyperplasia in a Korean Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hae Jeong Park

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Fibroblast growth factors (FGFs and their receptors (FGFRs have been implicated in prostate growth and are overexpressed in benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH. In this study, we investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs of the FGFR genes (FGFR1 and FGFR2 were associated with BPH and its clinical phenotypes in a population of Korean men. We genotyped four SNPs in the exons of FGFR1 and FGFR2 (rs13317 in FGFR1; rs755793, rs1047100, and rs3135831 in FGFR2 using direct sequencing in 218 BPH patients and 213 control subjects. No SNPs of FGFR1 or FGFR2 genes were associated with BPH. However, analysis according to clinical phenotypes showed that rs1047100 of FGFR2 was associated with prostate volume in BPH in the dominant model (GA/AA versus GG, P = 0.010. In addition, a significant association was observed between rs13317 of FGFR1 and international prostate symptom score (IPSS in the additive (TC versus CC versus TT, P = 0.0022 and dominant models (TC/CC versus TT, P = 0.005. Allele frequency analysis also showed significant association between rs13317 and IPSS (P = 0.005. These results suggested that FGFR genes could be related to progression of BPH.

  19. Heritability of circulating growth factors involved in the angiogenesis in healthy human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantsulaia, I; Trofimov, S; Kobyliansky, E; Livshits, G

    2004-09-21

    The present study examined the extent of genetic and environmental influences on the populational variation of circulating growth factors (VEGF, EGF) involved in angiogenesis in healthy and ethnically homogeneous Caucasian families. The plasma levels of each of the studied biochemical indices were determined by enzyme-linked immunoassay in 478 healthy individuals aged 18-75 years. Quantitative genetic analysis showed that the VEGF and EGF variation was appreciably attributable to genetic effects, with heritability estimates of 79.9% and 48.4%, respectively. Yet, common environmental factors, shared by members of the same household, also played a significant role (P growth factor-beta 1 (TGF-beta 1) or tissue inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases 1 (TIMP-1), likewise relevant for angiogenesis. Bivariate analysis revealed significant phenotypic correlations (P < 0.002) between all pairs of variables, thus indicating the possible existence of common genetic and environmental factors. The analysis suggested that the pleiotropic genetic effects were consistently the primary (or even the sole) source of correlation between all pairs of studied molecules. The results of our study affirm the existence of specific and common genetic pathways that commonly determine the greater part of the circulating variation of these molecules.

  20. Compound haplotypes at Xp11.23 and human population growth in Eurasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, S; Armour, J A L

    2004-09-01

    To investigate patterns of diversity and the evolutionary history of Eurasians, we have sequenced a 2.8 kb region at Xp11.23 in a sample of African and Eurasian chromosomes. This region is in a long intron of CLCN5 and is immediately flanked by a highly variable minisatellite, DXS255, and a human-specific Ta0 LINE. Compared to Africans, Eurasians showed a marked reduction in sequence diversity. The main Euro-Asiatic haplotype seems to be the ancestral haplotype for the whole sample. Coalescent simulations, including recombination and exponential growth, indicate a median length of strong linkage disequilibrium, up to approximately 9 kb for this area. The Ka/Ks ratio between the coding sequence of human CLCN5 and its mouse orthologue is much less than 1. This implies that the region sequenced is unlikely to be under the strong influence of positive selective processes on CLCN5, mutations in which have been associated with disorders such as Dent's disease. In contrast, a scenario based on a population bottleneck and exponential growth seems a more likely explanation for the reduced diversity observed in Eurasians. Coalescent analysis and linked minisatellite diversity (which reaches a gene diversity value greater than 98% in Eurasians) suggest an estimated age of origin of the Euro-Asiatic diversity compatible with a recent out-of-Africa model for colonization of Eurasia by modern Homo sapiens.

  1. Growth comparison in children with and without food allergies in 2 different demographic populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Harshna; Ramesh, Manish; Feuille, Elizabeth; Groetch, Marion; Wang, Julie

    2014-10-01

    To examine the effects of food avoidance on the growth of children with food allergies. A retrospective chart review was performed for children with and without food allergies followed at 2 New York City general pediatric practices. Charts were selected based on codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, for well child visit, food allergy, anaphylaxis, and/or epinephrine autoinjector prescriptions. Heights and weights were obtained to calculate body mass index, height, and weight z-scores. Of the 9938 children seen, 439 (4.4%) were avoiding one or more foods. Of those with commercial insurance, children with food allergies were significantly shorter (mean height z-score = 0.06; P = .01) and weighed less (mean weight z-score -0.1; P = .006) than children without food allergies (mean height z-score = 0.42; mean weight z-score = 0.07). In contrast, children with food allergies and state insurance were not smaller in height or weight compared with children without food allergies. Among white subjects, there was a significant effect of food allergies on height and weight (ANOVA for height P = .012, for weight P = .0036) that was not observed for Hispanic/Latino, black, or Asian subjects. Children with allergies to milk weighed significantly less than children without milk allergies (P = .0006). Children with food allergies and commercial insurance have significant impairment in growth compared with those without food allergies. Additionally, children avoiding all forms of milk are shorter and weigh less than matched counterparts. Therefore, height and weight measurements should be assessed routinely in children with food allergies because there is risk for growth impairment in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

  3. Modelling cell population growth with applications to cancer therapy in human tumour cell lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basse, Britta; Baguley, Bruce C; Marshall, Elaine S; Wake, Graeme C; Wall, David J N

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we present an overview of the work undertaken to model a population of cells and the effects of cancer therapy. We began with a theoretical one compartment size structured cell population model and investigated its asymptotic steady size distributions (SSDs) (On a cell growth model for plankton, MMB JIMA 21 (2004) 49). However these size distributions are not similar to the DNA (size) distributions obtained experimentally via the flow cytometric analysis of human tumour cell lines (data obtained from the Auckland Cancer Society Research Centre, New Zealand). In our one compartment model, size was a generic term, but in order to obtain realistic steady size distributions we chose size to be DNA content and devised a multi-compartment mathematical model for the cell division cycle where each compartment corresponds to a distinct phase of the cell cycle (J. Math. Biol. 47 (2003) 295). We then incorporated another compartment describing the possible induction of apoptosis (cell death) from mitosis phase (Modelling cell death in human tumour cell lines exposed to anticancer drug paclitaxel, J. Math. Biol. 2004, in press). This enabled us to compare our model to flow cytometric data of a melanoma cell line where the anticancer drug, paclitaxel, had been added. The model gives a dynamic picture of the effects of paclitaxel on the cell cycle. We hope to use the model to describe the effects of other cancer therapies on a number of different cell lines. Copyright 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species. An application to CO2 global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Puliafito, Jose Luis; Grand, Mariana Conte

    2008-01-01

    Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years. (author)

  5. Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

    2008-01-01

    Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

  6. Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2014-08-01

    In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Growth, and Economic Security in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sang-Hyop; Mason, Andrew; Park, Donghyun

    2011-01-01

    Asia as a whole is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward older populations, though different countries are at different stages of this region- wide trend. We document Asia's aging population, describe the region's old-age support systems, and highlight the regional socioeconomic implications of the transition for those support systems. Aging populations present two fundamental challenges to Asian policymakers: (1) developing socioeconomic systems that can provide economic securit...

  8. Growth performance and total tract nutrient digestion for Holstein heifers limit-fed diets high in distillers grains with different forage particle sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study evaluated dairy heifer growth performance and total tract nutrient digestion when fed diets high in dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) with different forage particle size. An 8-wk randomized complete block design study was conducted utilizing twenty-two Holstein heifers (123 ±...

  9. Population Pharmacokinetics of Telapristone (CDB-4124) and its Active Monodemethylated Metabolite CDB-4453, with a Mixture Model for Total Clearance

    OpenAIRE

    Morris, Denise; Podolski, Joseph; Kirsch, Alan; Wiehle, Ronald; Fleckenstein, Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    Telapristone is a selective progesterone antagonist that is being developed for the long-term treatment of symptoms associated with endometriosis and uterine fibroids. The population pharmacokinetics of telapristone (CDB-4124) and CDB-4453 was investigated using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Data from two clinical studies (n?=?32) were included in the analysis. A two-compartment (parent) one compartment (metabolite) mixture model (with two populations for apparent clearance) with first-or...

  10. Modelling strategic interventions in a population with a total fertility rate of 8.3: a cross-sectional study of Idjwi Island, DRC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomson Dana R

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Idjwi, an island of approximately 220,000 people, is located in eastern DRC and functions semi-autonomously under the governance of two kings (mwamis. At more than 8 live births per woman, Idjwi has one of the highest total fertility rates (TFRs in the world. Rapid population growth has led to widespread environmental degradation and food insecurity. Meanwhile family planning services are largely unavailable. Methods At the invitation of local leaders, we conducted a representative survey of 2,078 households in accordance with MEASURE DHS protocols, and performed ethnographic interviews and focus groups with key informants and vulnerable subpopulations. Modelling proximate determinates of fertility, we evaluated how the introduction of contraceptives and/or extended periods of breastfeeding could reduce the TFR. Results Over half of all women reported an unmet need for spacing or limiting births, and nearly 70% named a specific modern method of contraception they would prefer to use; pills (25.4% and injectables (26.5% were most desired. We predicted that an increased length of breastfeeding (from 10 to 21 months or an increase in contraceptive prevalence (from 1% to 30%, or a combination of both could reduce TFR on Idjwi to 6, the average desired number of children. Increasing contraceptive prevalence to 15% could reduce unmet need for contraception by 8%. Conclusions To meet women’s need and desire for fertility control, we recommend adding family planning services at health centers with NGO support, pursuing a community health worker program, promoting extended breastfeeding, and implementing programs to end sexual- and gender-based violence toward women.

  11. Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: Results of a full life cycle exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manyin, Teresa; Rowe, Christopher L.

    2008-01-01

    In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by mater