WorldWideScience

Sample records for total numeric risk

  1. Risk approximation in decision making: approximative numeric abilities predict advantageous decisions under objective risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Silke M; Schiebener, Johannes; Delazer, Margarete; Brand, Matthias

    2018-01-22

    Many decision situations in everyday life involve mathematical considerations. In decisions under objective risk, i.e., when explicit numeric information is available, executive functions and abilities to handle exact numbers and ratios are predictors of objectively advantageous choices. Although still debated, exact numeric abilities, e.g., normative calculation skills, are assumed to be related to approximate number processing skills. The current study investigates the effects of approximative numeric abilities on decision making under objective risk. Participants (N = 153) performed a paradigm measuring number-comparison, quantity-estimation, risk-estimation, and decision-making skills on the basis of rapid dot comparisons. Additionally, a risky decision-making task with exact numeric information was administered, as well as tasks measuring executive functions and exact numeric abilities, e.g., mental calculation and ratio processing skills, were conducted. Approximative numeric abilities significantly predicted advantageous decision making, even beyond the effects of executive functions and exact numeric skills. Especially being able to make accurate risk estimations seemed to contribute to superior choices. We recommend approximation skills and approximate number processing to be subject of future investigations on decision making under risk.

  2. Total Risk Management for Low Dose Radiation Exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Sterc, D.

    2012-01-01

    health. This view is supported with numerous evidences, and explained with beneficial effects from the increased activity of immune system activated with small radiation exposures. Finally, theory in between is that small doses are less than linearly proportionally harmful and that they are presenting a much smaller risks than according to the LNT. This view is derived from the use of different evidences. Difficulties to find one single theory about effects of small radiation doses are related to existence of huge variability and uncertainty in the evidence data. This is very hard experimental and theoretical problem. It will require lots of additional research to reduce these uncertainties and find final theory. This might be too late for the number of people affected in different ways with current single most conservative LNT approach. The problem with the conservative LNT regulatory approach is resulting in enormous additional costs of nuclear energy and medical applications. Which is reasonable and acceptable during the regular operation when source is high and concentrated. But, this becomes unreasonable huge economic burden after accidents and for cleanups with nuclear facilities. Similar problem arises with restriction of medical examinations and treatments based on over conservative risk estimate. Special circumstances are with evacuated people from contaminated areas where they are on the one side saved from small radiation exposures, and on the other side exposed to years of life away from their home and with numerous direct and indirect additional risks (i.e., stress, social problems, etc.). It seems reasonable that some alternative (total) risk management approach might be much more suitable for this situation. Evacuation of people from contaminated area with small doses sources should not be done when that induces larger risks from even what is expected from radiation based on LNT. Similar total risk management could be also applied for with medical

  3. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  4. Managing the total cost of risk exposures through risk mapping techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unione, A.J.; Rode, D.M.

    1998-01-01

    In a competitive power market, power producers are exposed to an increasingly broad spectrum of financial risks. The cumulative impact of these financial risks is known collectively as the Total of Cost of Risk. The concept of Total of Cost of Risk presents the business reality of a company's exposure to potentially devastating financial consequences in an integrated and useful way. In this way, a strategy of managing Total Cost of Risk in the most cost effective way can become a means of ensuring long term business health and security. This paper will examine the use of risk mapping as a tool for visually understanding Total Cost of Risk, thus creating an enhanced situational awareness and an integrated basis for risk management decision. The evaluation process, available through the use of risk maps allows the power producers to pro-actively implement prudent business decisions concerning the design, operation and maintenance of power plants. Risk mapping is thus a means for harmonizing operational objectives, such as improved plant reliability, with corporate strategies and goals in terms of an effective risk management program

  5. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  6. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  7. Uncertainties and demonstration of compliance with numerical risk standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preyssl, C.; Cullingford, M.C.

    1987-01-01

    When dealing with numerical results of a probabilistic risk analysis performed for a complex system, such as a nuclear power plant, one major objective may be to deal with the problem of compliance or non-compliance with a prefixed risk standard. The uncertainties in the risk results associated with the consequences and their probabilities of occurrence may be considered by representing the risk as a risk band. Studying the area and distance between the upper and lower bound of the risk band provides consistent information on the uncertainties in terms of risk, not by means of scalars only but also by real functions. Criteria can be defined for determining compliance with a numerical risk standard, and the 'weighting functional' method, representing a possible tool for testing compliance of risk results, is introduced. By shifting the upper confidence bound due to redefinition, part of the risk band may exceed the standard without changing the underlying results. Using the concept described it is possible to determine the amount of risk, i.e. uncertainty, exceeding the standard. The mathematical treatment of uncertainties therefore allows probabilistic risk assessment results to be compared. A realistic example illustrates the method. (author)

  8. Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henney, A.; Keers, G.

    1998-01-01

    The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk

  9. Risk factors for revision of primary total hip arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prokopetz Julian JZ

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Numerous papers have been published examining risk factors for revision of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA, but there have been no comprehensive systematic literature reviews that summarize the most recent findings across a broad range of potential predictors. Methods We performed a PubMed search for papers published between January, 2000 and November, 2010 that provided data on risk factors for revision of primary THA. We collected data on revision for any reason, as well as on revision for aseptic loosening, infection, or dislocation. For each risk factor that was examined in at least three papers, we summarize the number and direction of statistically significant associations reported. Results Eighty-six papers were included in our review. Factors found to be associated with revision included younger age, greater comorbidity, a diagnosis of avascular necrosis (AVN as compared to osteoarthritis (OA, low surgeon volume, and larger femoral head size. Male sex was associated with revision due to aseptic loosening and infection. Longer operating time was associated with revision due to infection. Smaller femoral head size was associated with revision due to dislocation. Conclusions This systematic review of literature published between 2000 and 2010 identified a range of demographic, clinical, surgical, implant, and provider variables associated with the risk of revision following primary THA. These findings can inform discussions between surgeons and patients relating to the risks and benefits of undergoing total hip arthroplasty.

  10. Using a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder to improve risk understanding by low numerates: a study of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Previous experimental research provides evidence that a familiar risk comparison within a risk ladder is understood by low- and high-numerate individuals. It especially helps low numerates to better evaluate risk. In the present study, an eye tracker was used to capture individuals' visual attention to a familiar risk comparison, such as the risk associated with smoking. Two parameters of information processing-efficiency and level-were derived from visual attention. A random sample of participants from the general population (N= 68) interpreted a given risk level with the help of the risk ladder. Numeracy was negatively correlated with overall visual attention on the risk ladder (r(s) =-0.28, p= 0.01), indicating that the lower the numeracy, the more the time spent looking at the whole risk ladder. Numeracy was positively correlated with the efficiency of processing relevant frequency (r(s) = 0.34, p improving risk communication formats. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  12. 'Awareness and attitudes towards total cardiovascular disease risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Microsoft account

    Corresponding author: Dr S Ofori, Department of Internal Medicine, ... regarding total CVD risk assessment in clinical practice among physicians in Port ..... cardiovascular risk for prevention and control of cardiovascular disease in low and.

  13. Potential impact of single-risk-factor versus total risk management for the prevention of cardiovascular events in Seychelles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndindjock, Roger; Gedeon, Jude; Mendis, Shanthi; Paccaud, Fred; Bovet, Pascal

    2011-04-01

    To assess the prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in Seychelles, a middle-income African country, and compare the cost-effectiveness of single-risk-factor management (treating individuals with arterial blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and/or total serum cholesterol ≥ 6.2 mmol/l) with that of management based on total CV risk (treating individuals with a total CV risk ≥ 10% or ≥ 20%). CV risk factor prevalence and a CV risk prediction chart for Africa were used to estimate the 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal CV event among individuals aged 40-64 years. These figures were used to compare single-risk-factor management with total risk management in terms of the number of people requiring treatment to avert one CV event and the number of events potentially averted over 10 years. Treatment for patients with high total CV risk (≥ 20%) was assumed to consist of a fixed-dose combination of several drugs (polypill). Cost analyses were limited to medication. A total CV risk of ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% was found among 10.8% and 5.1% of individuals, respectively. With single-risk-factor management, 60% of adults would need to be treated and 157 cardiovascular events per 100000 population would be averted per year, as opposed to 5% of adults and 92 events with total CV risk management. Management based on high total CV risk optimizes the balance between the number requiring treatment and the number of CV events averted. Total CV risk management is much more cost-effective than single-risk-factor management. These findings are relevant for all countries, but especially for those economically and demographically similar to Seychelles.

  14. Risk factors for total hip arthroplasty aseptic revision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatod, Monti; Cafri, Guy; Namba, Robert S; Inacio, Maria C S; Paxton, Elizabeth W

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate patient, operative, implant, surgeon, and hospital factors associated with aseptic revision after primary THA in patients registered in a large US Total Joint Replacement Registry. A total of 35,960 THAs registered from 4/2001-12/2010 were evaluated. The 8-year survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI 96.4%-97.0%). Females had a higher risk of aseptic revision than males. Hispanic and Asian patients had a lower risk of revision than white patients. Ceramic-on-ceramic, ceramic-on-conventional polyethylene, and metal-on-conventional polyethylene bearing surfaces had a higher risk of revision than metal-on-highly cross-linked polyethylene. Body mass index, health status, diabetes, diagnosis, fixation, approach, bilateral procedures, head size, surgeon fellowship training, surgeon and hospital volume were not revision risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  16. Risk management in radiotherapy: analysis for total body irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banguero, Y., E-mail: ybanguero@cin.edu.uy [Universidad de la República, Montevideo (Uruguay); Píriz, G.; Guerrero, L.; Cardozo, L.; Quarneti, A. [Centro Hospital Pereira Rossell, Montevideo (Uruguay); Nader, A. [Autoridad Reguladora Nacional de Radioprotección, Montevideo (Uruguay)

    2017-07-01

    Introduction: Management of risk in any technique that is using radiation energy is very important to prevent incidents and accidents. Pretending evaluate the risk in the all process of Total Body Irradiation (TBI), this work present a risk matrix with different possible events than could occur. Methods: SEVRRA-R platform that run in windows is using to build a risk matrix separating the process of TBI in commissioning, prescription, planning and delivering dose. Any stage has a procedure with different errors associated. We build a matrix using all this information to evaluate the kind of risk we have in the technique. Results: It was obtained a template that describes in general the process of TBI with principles events, barriers and consequences. Conclusion: Analyzing the risk in any stage of the process in Total Body irradiation is a useful tool to understand the key points to work in safety for this technique. (author)

  17. Total cholesterol and the risk of Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, G; Antikainen, R; Jousilahti, P; Kivipelto, M; Tuomilehto, J

    2008-05-20

    To examine the association between serum total cholesterol at baseline and the risk of Parkinson disease (PD). Study cohorts included 24,773 Finnish men and 26,153 women aged 25 to 74 years without a history of PD and stroke at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) of incident PD were estimated for different levels of total cholesterol. During a mean follow-up period of 18.1 years, 321 men and 304 women developed incident PD. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, study years, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, education, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, coffee and tea consumption, and history of diabetes), the HRs of PD at different levels of total cholesterol (or=7 mmol/L) were 1.00, 1.33, 1.53, and 1.84 (p for trend = 0.035) in men; 1.00, 1.55, 1.57, and 1.86 (p for trend = 0.113) in women; and 1.00, 1.42, 1.56, and 1.86 (p for trend = 0.002) in men and women combined (adjusted also for sex). In both sexes combined, the increased risk of PD associated with increasing levels of serum total cholesterol was present both in subjects aged 25-44 years and in subjects aged 45-54 years at baseline, and in never smokers and smokers; however, no association was found among subjects aged 55 years or older at baseline. This large prospective study suggests that high total cholesterol at baseline is associated with an increased risk of Parkinson disease.

  18. Functional-analytic and numerical issues in splitting methods for total variation-based image reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hintermüller, Michael; Rautenberg, Carlos N; Hahn, Jooyoung

    2014-01-01

    Variable splitting schemes for the function space version of the image reconstruction problem with total variation regularization (TV-problem) in its primal and pre-dual formulations are considered. For the primal splitting formulation, while existence of a solution cannot be guaranteed, it is shown that quasi-minimizers of the penalized problem are asymptotically related to the solution of the original TV-problem. On the other hand, for the pre-dual formulation, a family of parametrized problems is introduced and a parameter dependent contraction of an associated fixed point iteration is established. Moreover, the theory is validated by numerical tests. Additionally, the augmented Lagrangian approach is studied, details on an implementation on a staggered grid are provided and numerical tests are shown. (paper)

  19. The Impact of Total Risk Management on Company's Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed, Hamdu Kedir; Knapkova, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally risk management used to be considered as a means to alleviate perhaps eliminate negative outcomes of exposures. However, the result of this and other empirical studies shows the ability of risk management to go beyond this and respond to market factors which are out of management control in order to control volatilities in earning which ultimately improve corporate performance. The empirical study investigates the relationship between total risk management and company's performa...

  20. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

    2018-06-01

    Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

  1. Cirrhosis is a risk factor for total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deleuran, Thomas; Overgaard, Søren; Vilstrup, Hendrik

    2016-01-01

    Background and purpose - There are limited data on risk factors for avascular necrosis of the hip, but cirrhosis has been proposed as a risk factor. We examined the association between cirrhosis and incidence of total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Methods - We used nationwide healthcare......,052 reference individuals. Their median age was 57 years, and 65% were men. 45 cirrhosis patients and 44 reference individuals underwent total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Cirrhosis patients' HR for a total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis was 10 (95% CI: 6-17), yet their 5-year risk...... of avascular necrosis was only 0.2%. For the reference individuals, the 5-year risk was 0.02%. Interpretation - Cirrhosis is a strong risk factor for avascular necrosis of the hip, but it is rare even in cirrhosis patients....

  2. Cirrhosis is a risk factor for total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deleuran, Thomas; Overgaard, Søren; Vilstrup, Hendrik; Jepsen, Peter

    2016-06-01

    Background and purpose - There are limited data on risk factors for avascular necrosis of the hip, but cirrhosis has been proposed as a risk factor. We examined the association between cirrhosis and incidence of total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Methods - We used nationwide healthcare data to identify all Danish residents diagnosed with cirrhosis in 1994-2011, and matched them 1:5 by age and sex to non-cirrhotic reference individuals from the general population. We excluded people with a previous total hip arthroplasty, a previous hip fracture, or a previous diagnosis of avascular necrosis. We used stratified Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for cirrhosis patients relative to reference individuals, adjusting for potential confounders. We used the cumulative incidence function to compute 5-year risks. Results - We included 25,421 cirrhosis patients and 114,052 reference individuals. Their median age was 57 years, and 65% were men. 45 cirrhosis patients and 44 reference individuals underwent total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis. Cirrhosis patients' HR for a total hip arthroplasty for avascular necrosis was 10 (95% CI: 6-17), yet their 5-year risk of avascular necrosis was only 0.2%. For the reference individuals, the 5-year risk was 0.02%. Interpretation - Cirrhosis is a strong risk factor for avascular necrosis of the hip, but it is rare even in cirrhosis patients.

  3. Evaluation of Total Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Hypertension and Impaired Glucose Tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Cherniavska

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aim. Timely reveal of the patients at high risk of cardiovascular diseases for whom earlier intervention for cardiovascular risk correction is the most effective. Materials and methods. Seventy patients aged 30–55 years old with stage 2 hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT and high cardiovascular risk were examined according to Framingham criteria. Cardiovascular risk was compared by SCORE and PROCAM results. Results. Percentage ratio of males with high cardiovascular risk was higher by 52.3 % in comparison to females by SCORE and by 2.3 % in comparison to females by PROCAM. Males did not present any significant discrepancy by evaluation of cardiovascular risk by both scores unlike females. Obtained results showed that total cardiovascular risk in females was twofold higher by PROCAM compared to SCORE scale. Conclusions. Total cardiovascular risk level in patients with stage 2 hypertension and IGT is influenced by age, systolic blood pressure level, smoking, lipid storage disease and carbohydrate metabolism disorder. When we evaluate total cardiovascular risk, we should not be limited only by determination of factors determined in SCORE. It is reasonable to evaluate risk factors by PROCAM, too, especially for females.

  4. Circulating Total Bilirubin and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kunutsor, Setor K.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ronald T.; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Dullaart, Robin P. F.

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of circulating total bilirubin and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a new prospective study and to determine whether adding information on total bilirubin values to established cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of CVD

  5. Combining numerical simulations with time-domain random walk for pathogen risk assessment in groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cvetkovic, V.; Molin, S.

    2012-02-01

    We present a methodology that combines numerical simulations of groundwater flow and advective transport in heterogeneous porous media with analytical retention models for computing the infection risk probability from pathogens in aquifers. The methodology is based on the analytical results presented in [1,2] for utilising the colloid filtration theory in a time-domain random walk framework. It is shown that in uniform flow, the results from the numerical simulations of advection yield comparable results as the analytical TDRW model for generating advection segments. It is shown that spatial variability of the attachment rate may be significant, however, it appears to affect risk in a different manner depending on if the flow is uniform or radially converging. In spite of the fact that numerous issues remain open regarding pathogen transport in aquifers on the field scale, the methodology presented here may be useful for screening purposes, and may also serve as a basis for future studies that would include greater complexity.

  6. Fibrosis-Related Biomarkers and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Isha; Glazer, Nicole L.; Barasch, Eddy; Biggs, Mary L.; Djoussé, Luc; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Gottdiener, John S.; Ix, Joachim H.; Kizer, Jorge R.; Rimm, Eric B.; Siscovick, David S.; Tracy, Russell P.; Zieman, Susan J.; Mukamal, Kenneth J.

    2014-01-01

    Fibrosis has been implicated in diverse diseases of the liver, kidney, lungs, and heart, but its importance as a risk factor for mortality remains unconfirmed. We determined the prospective associations of 2 complementary biomarkers of fibrosis, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and procollagen type III N-terminal propeptide (PIIINP), with total and cause-specific mortality risks among community-living older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (1996–2010). We measured circulating TGF-β and PIIINP levels in plasma samples collected in 1996 and ascertained the number of deaths through 2010. Both TGF-β and PIIINP were associated with elevated risks of total and pulmonary mortality after adjustment for sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical risk factors. For total mortality, the hazard ratios per doubling of TGF-β and PIIINP were 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.17; P = 0.02) and 1.14 (CI: 1.03, 1.27; P = 0.01), respectively. The corresponding hazard ratios for pulmonary mortality were 1.27 (CI: 1.01, 1.60; P = 0.04) for TGF-β and 1.52 (CI: 1.11, 2.10; P = 0.01) for PIIINP. Associations of TGF-β and PIIINP with total and pulmonary mortality were strongest among individuals with higher C-reactive protein concentrations (P for interaction < 0.05). Our findings provide some of the first large-scale prospective evidence that circulating biomarkers of fibrosis measured late in life are associated with death. PMID:24771724

  7. A Numerical Study for Robust Active Portfolio Management with Worst-Case Downside Risk Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aifan Ling

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, active portfolio management problems are paid close attention by many researchers due to the explosion of fund industries. We consider a numerical study of a robust active portfolio selection model with downside risk and multiple weights constraints in this paper. We compare the numerical performance of solutions with the classical mean-variance tracking error model and the naive 1/N portfolio strategy by real market data from China market and other markets. We find from the numerical results that the tested active models are more attractive and robust than the compared models.

  8. Plasma Total Cysteine and Cardiovascular Risk Burden: Action and Interaction

    OpenAIRE

    De Chiara, Benedetta; Sedda, Valentina; Parolini, Marina; Campolo, Jonica; De Maria, Renata; Caruso, Raffaele; Pizzi, Gianluigi; Disoteo, Olga; Dellanoce, Cinzia; Corno, Anna Rosa; Cighetti, Giuliana; Parodi, Oberdan

    2012-01-01

    We hypothesized that redox analysis could provide sensitive markers of the oxidative pathway associated to the presence of an increasing number of cardiovascular risk factors (RFs), independently of type. We classified 304 subjects without cardiovascular disease into 4 groups according to the total number of RFs (smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hyperhomocysteinaemia, diabetes, obesity, and their combination). Oxidative stress was evaluated by measuring plasma total and reduced h...

  9. Incidental Parathyroidectomy during Total Thyroidectomy: Risk Factors and Consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios K. Manatakis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the incidence of accidental parathyroidectomy in our series of total thyroidectomies, to investigate its clinical and biochemical consequences, and to identify potential risk factors. Methods. Patients who underwent total thyroidectomy between January 2006 and December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Pathology reports were reviewed to identify those cases who had an incidental parathyroidectomy and these were compared to patients with no parathyroidectomy, in terms of clinical (age, sex, and symptoms of hypocalcemia, pathological (thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy, and biochemical (serum calcium and phosphate levels factors. Results. 281 patients underwent total thyroidectomy during the study period. Incidental parathyroidectomy was noticed in 24.9% of cases, with 44.3% of parathyroid glands found in an intrathyroidal location. Evidence of postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia was noticed in 28.6% of patients with parathyroidectomy, compared with 13.3% in the no-parathyroidectomy group (p=0.003. Symptomatic hypocalcemia was observed in 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively (p=0.49. Age, sex, thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusions. Our study found an association of incidental parathyroidectomy with transient postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia, but not with clinically symptomatic disease. Age, sex, thyroid gland weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy were not identified as risk factors.

  10. Preoperative Optimization of Total Joint Arthroplasty Surgical Risk: Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Matthew N; Hallock, Justin; Mihalko, William M

    2016-08-01

    Obesity is a problem that is increasing in prevalence in the United States and in other countries, and it is a common comorbidity in patients seeking total joint arthroplasty for degenerative musculoskeletal diseases. Obesity, as well as commonly associated comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and those contributing to the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome, have been shown to have detrimental effects on total joint arthroplasty outcomes. Although there are effective surgical and nonsurgical interventions which can result in weight loss in these patients, concomitant benefit on arthroplasty outcomes is not clear. Preoperative optimization of surgical risk in obese total joint arthroplasty patients is an important point of intervention to improve arthroplasty outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk factors for postoperative complications after total laryngectomy following radiotherapy or chemoradiation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, N B; Kristensen, C.A.; Andersen, E

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine the rates of and risk factors for postoperative complications following total laryngectomy in patients treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiation. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Tertiary medical centres. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 143 patients undergoin...

  12. Risk management for existing energy facilities. A global approach to numerical safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a structured set of numerical safety goals for risk management of existing energy facilities. The rationale behind these safety goals is based on principles of equity and economic efficiency. Some of the issues involved when using probabilistic risk analyses results for safety decisions are discussed. A brief review of existing safety targets and open-quotes floating numbersclose quotes is presented, and a set of safety goals for industrial risk management is proposed. Relaxation of these standards for existing facilities, the relevance of the lifetime of the plant, the treatment of uncertainties, and problems of failure dependencies are discussed briefly. 17 refs., 1 fig

  13. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be addressed and find ways to avoid them in the future when repeated. The research has consist of two main parts firstly have included a review of the most important concepts of total quality management in addition to the concept of risk analysis and management in construction projects and how to apply the concept of total quality management in the risk analysis and management. Second part included the practical part of the research, which was open and closed questionnaire for experts in the construction industry to obtain required informations for the application of total quality management requirements in risk management in construction projects in Iraq. One of the main findings of the research is that top management support has a high impact on risk management in addition to continuous improvement, training and education, while the participation of all employees in the organization and constant stimulation and focusing on the customer as one of the total quality management requirements had a moderate impact on risk management.

  14. Blood trihalomethane levels and the risk of total cancer mortality in US adults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Jin-Young; Min, Kyoung-Bok

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although animal data have suggested the carcinogenic activity of trihalomethanes (THMs), there is inconsistent evidence supporting the link between THM exposure and cancers in humans. Objectives: We investigated the association between specific and total blood THM levels with the risk of total cancer mortality in adults. Methods: We analyzed data from the 1999–2004 Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Linked Mortality File of the United States. A total of 933 adults (20–59 years of age) with available blood THM levels and no missing data for other variables were included. Four different THM species (chloroform, bromodichloromethane (BDCM), dibromochloromethane (DBCM) and bromoform) were included, and the codes associated with cancer (malignant neoplasm) were C00 through C97, based on the underlying causes of death listed in the International Classification of Disease 10the Revision. Results: Compared with adults in the lowest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles, those in the highest DBCM, bromoform, and total brominated THM tertiles exhibited adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of total cancer mortality of 4.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.59–15.50), 4.94 (95% CI = 1.56–15.61), and 3.42 (95% CI = 1.21–15.43) respectively. The risk of total cancer mortality was not associated with increases in blood chloroform and total THM levels. Conclusions: We found that the baseline blood THM species, particularly brominated THMs, were significantly associated with total cancer mortality in adults. Although this study should be confirm by other studies, our findings suggest a possible link between THM exposures and cancer. - Highlights: • Trihalomethanes (THM) are classified as either probable or possible carcinogens. • Limited evidence on the link between THM and the incidence of cancer in humans. • We investigated the association between blood THM levels and the risk of total cancer mortality. • High

  15. The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Chen

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

  16. Increasing risk of prosthetic joint infection after total hip arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dale, Håvard; Fenstad, Anne M; Hallan, Geir

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods The...... explain this increase. We believe that there has been an actual increase in the incidence of prosthetic joint infections after THA.......Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods...... The study was based on the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) dataset. 432,168 primary THAs from 1995 to 2009 were included (Denmark: 83,853, Finland 78,106, Norway 88,455, and Sweden 181,754). Adjusted survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models with revision due to infection...

  17. Plasma Total Cysteine and Cardiovascular Risk Burden: Action and Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedetta De Chiara

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We hypothesized that redox analysis could provide sensitive markers of the oxidative pathway associated to the presence of an increasing number of cardiovascular risk factors (RFs, independently of type. We classified 304 subjects without cardiovascular disease into 4 groups according to the total number of RFs (smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, hyperhomocysteinaemia, diabetes, obesity, and their combination. Oxidative stress was evaluated by measuring plasma total and reduced homocysteine, cysteine (Cys, glutathione, cysteinylglycine, blood reduced glutathione, and malondialdehyde. Twenty-seven percent of subjects were in group 0 RF, 26% in 1 RF, 31% in 2 RF, and 16% in ≥3 RF. By multivariable ordinal regression analysis, plasma total Cys was associated to a higher number of RF (OR = 1.068; 95% CI = 1.027–1.110, =0.002. Total RF burden is associated with increased total Cys levels. These findings support a prooxidant effect of Cys in conjunction with RF burden, and shed light on the pathophysiologic role of redox state unbalance in preclinical atherosclerosis.

  18. A numerical 4D Collision Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmitt, Pal; Culloch, Ross; Lieber, Lilian; Kregting, Louise

    2017-04-01

    With the growing number of marine renewable energy (MRE) devices being installed across the world, some concern has been raised about the possibility of harming mobile, marine fauna by collision. Although physical contact between a MRE device and an organism has not been reported to date, these novel sub-sea structures pose a challenge for accurately estimating collision risks as part of environmental impact assessments. Even if the animal motion is simplified to linear translation, ignoring likely evasive behaviour, the mathematical problem of establishing an impact probability is not trivial. We present a numerical algorithm to obtain such probability distributions using transient, four-dimensional simulations of a novel marine renewable device concept, Deep Green, Minesto's power plant and hereafter referred to as the 'kite' that flies in a figure-of-eight configuration. Simulations were carried out altering several configurations including kite depth, kite speed and kite trajectory while keeping the speed of the moving object constant. Since the kite assembly is defined as two parts in the model, a tether (attached to the seabed) and the kite, collision risk of each part is reported independently. By comparing the number of collisions with the number of collision-free simulations, a probability of impact for each simulated position in the cross- section of the area is considered. Results suggest that close to the bottom, where the tether amplitude is small, the path is always blocked and the impact probability is 100% as expected. However, higher up in the water column, the collision probability is twice as high in the mid line, where the tether passes twice per period than at the extremes of its trajectory. The collision probability distribution is much more complex in the upper end of the water column, where the kite and tether can simultaneously collide with the object. Results demonstrate the viability of such models, which can also incorporate empirical

  19. Osteonecrosis - A rare complication of HIV infection. Association with numerous risk factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, D.; Behrens, G.; Stoll, M.; Schmidt, R.E.

    2000-01-01

    Osteonecrosis is a rare complication of HIV infection. The presumptive cause of the aseptic osteonecrosis is a disturbed blood supply to the bone. Most cases of osteonecrosis are associated with numerous risk factors, such as use of steroids, alcohol abuse, coagulopathies or metabolic derangements. Since conventional X-rays appear unremarkable, early forms often go unrecognized or are diagnosed late. Methods of establishing the diagnosis are MRI and three-phase skeletal scintigraphy. The pathogenesis of osteonecrosis in HIV infection is unclear. So far, about 30 cases have been reported in the literature. We would recommend that in HIV patients with typical symptoms - in particular when classical risk factors are present - osteonecrosis be included in the differential diagnostic considerations. (orig.) [de

  20. Risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hassan, Basim Kamil; Sahlström, Arne; Dessau, Ram Benny Christian

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: Renal injury and dysfunction are serious complications after major surgery, which may lead to increased morbidity and mortality. The objective of our study was to identify the possible risk factors for renal dysfunction after total hip joint replacement surger...... creatinine. Smoking, diabetes mellitus, high BMI, gender, and duration of surgery were not identified as significant risk factors........ METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among 599 consecutive primary hip joint replacements performed between January 2011 and December 2013. According to the RIFLE criteria, increased postoperative serum creatinine was considered indicative of postoperative renal injury. The Welch two-sample test......, hypertension, general anesthesia, high ASA scores, low intra-operative systolic BP, and prophylactic dicloxacillin as significant risk factors. Low baseline systolic BP, low baseline diastolic blood pressure, and hip fracture diagnosis were independent risk factors for postoperative increase in serum...

  1. Total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea intake and gastric cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sanikini, Harinakshi; Dik, Vincent K; Siersema, Peter D

    2015-01-01

    Prospective studies examining the association between coffee and tea consumption and gastric cancer risk have shown inconsistent results. We investigated the association between coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea consumption and the risk of gastric cancer by anatomical site...... and histological type in the EPIC study. Coffee and tea consumption was assessed by dietary questionnaires at baseline. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression models. During 11.6 years of follow up, 683 gastric adenocarcinoma cases were identified among 477,312 participants. We found......) and tea (HR 0.81, 95%-CI: 0.59-1.09; quartile 4 vs. non/quartile 1). When stratified by anatomical site, we observed a significant positive association between gastric cardia cancer risk and total coffee consumption per increment of 100mL/day (HR 1.06, 95%-CI: 1.03-1.11). Similarly, a significant positive...

  2. BMI, total and abdominal fat distribution, and cardiovascular risk factors in school-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gishti, Olta; Gaillard, Romy; Durmus, Busra; Abrahamse, Marieke; van der Beek, Eline M; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; de Jonge, Layla L; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

    2015-05-01

    More specific total body and abdominal fat mass measures might be stronger associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, than BMI. We examined the independent associations of total and abdominal fat measures with cardiovascular risk factors in school age children. We performed a population-based cohort study among 6,523 children. At the age of 6 y, we measured childhood BMI, and general and abdominal fat mass, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and ultrasound and cardiovascular risk factors. Conditional on BMI, higher fat mass percentage and abdominal fat mass were associated with higher blood pressure, total- and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, insulin and c-peptide levels, but with lower left ventricular mass and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (P values children. Higher childhood adiposity measures were associated with increased odds of cardiovascular risk factors clustering, with the strongest effect for fat mass percentage (odds ratios: 3.01 (95% confidence interval: 2.67, 3.9). Our results suggest that general and abdominal fat measures are associated with cardiovascular risk factors in childhood, independent from BMI. These measures may provide additional information for identification of children with an adverse cardiovascular profile.

  3. Preoperative risk factors in total thyroidectomy of substernal goiter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bove A

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Aldo Bove, Raffaella Maria Di Renzo, Gauro D’Urbano, Manuela Bellobono, Vincenzo D’ Addetta, Alfonso Lapergola, Giuseppe Bongarzoni Department of Medicine, Dentistry and Biotechnology, University “G. d’Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Chieti Scalo, Italy Abstract: The definition of substernal goiter (SG is based on variable criteria leading to a considerable variation in the reported incidence (from 0.2% to 45%. The peri- and postoperative complications are higher in total thyroidectomy (TT for SG than that for cervical goiter. The aim of this study was to evaluate the preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative complications. From 2002 to 2014, 142 (8.5%; 98 women and 44 men of the 1690 patients who underwent TT had a SG. We retrospectively evaluated the following parameters: sex, age, histology, pre- and retrovascular position, recurrence, and extension beyond the carina. These parameters were then related to the postoperative complications: seroma/hematoma, transient and permanent hypocalcemia, transient and permanent laryngeal nerve palsy, and the length of surgery. The results were further compared with a control group of 120 patients operated on in the same period with TT for cervical goiter. All but two procedures were terminated via cervicotomy, where partial sternotomies were required. No perioperative mortality was observed. Results of the statistical analysis (Student’s t-test and Fisher’s exact test indicated an association between recurrence and extension beyond the carina with all postoperative complications. The group that underwent TT of SG showed a statistically significant higher risk for transient hypocalcemia (relative risk =1.767 with 95% confidence interval: 1.131–2.7605, P=0.0124, and need to treat =7.1 and a trend toward significance for transient recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy (relative risk =6.7806 with 95% confidence interval: 0.8577–53.2898, P=0.0696, and need to treat =20.8 compared to the

  4. A Proactive Approach to High Risk Delirium Patients Undergoing Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Andres F; Post, Zachary D; Orozco, Fabio R; Lutz, Rex W; Ong, Alvin C

    2018-04-01

    Delirium is a common complication among elderly patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty (TJA). Its incidence has been reported from 4% to 53%. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services consider delirium following TJA a "never-event." The purpose of this study is to evaluate a simple perioperative protocol used to identify delirium risk patients and prevent its incidence following TJA. Our group developed a protocol to identify and prevent delirium in patients undergoing TJA. All patients were screened and scored in the preoperative assessment, on criteria such as age, history of forgetfulness, history of agitation or visual hallucinations, history of falls, history of postoperative confusion, and inability to perform higher brain functions. Patients were scored on performance in a simple mental examination. The patients were classified as low, medium, or high risk. Patients who were identified as high risk were enrolled in a delirium avoidance protocol that minimized narcotics and emphasized nursing involvement and fluids administration. Five of 7659 (0.065%) consecutive TJA patients from 2010 to 2015 developed delirium. A total of 422 patients were identified as high risk. All 5 patients who suffered delirium were within the high risk group. No low or medium risk patients suffered a delirium complication. Three (0.039%) patients suffered drug-induced delirium, 1 (0.013%) had delirium related to alcohol withdrawal, and 1 (0.013%) had delirium after a systemic infection. This protocol is effective in identifying patients at high delirium risk and diminishing the incidence of this complication by utilizing a simple screening tool and perioperative protocol. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. The total theory about risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuya, Shunsuke

    2003-01-01

    A general working procedure of risk management, some example of other countries, topics and problems in the future are described. A definition of risk, risk assessment, risk management process, setting of aim and definite policy are explained. As a fundamental way of thinking, risk is controlled by ALARP (As Low As Reasonably Practicable). The upper and lower limit of risk level is called as Quantitative Safety Goal and Target Level of Safety, respectively. These limits in the atomic power and airplane are decided. Evaluation of risk, countermeasure and practice are explained. For example, a permissible range of risk and practical use in England, U.S.A, Holland and Japan are stated. Recently, accountability risk, missing demand risk and control risk are important. (S.Y.)

  6. Daily total physical activity level and total cancer risk in men and women: results from a large-scale population-based cohort study in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Manami; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Kurahashi, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2008-08-15

    The impact of total physical activity level on cancer risk has not been fully clarified, particularly in non-Western, relatively lean populations. The authors prospectively examined the association between daily total physical activity (using a metabolic equivalents/day score) and subsequent cancer risk in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. A total of 79,771 general-population Japanese men and women aged 45-74 years who responded to a questionnaire in 1995-1999 were followed for total cancer incidence (4,334 cases) through 2004. Compared with subjects in the lowest quartile, increased daily physical activity was associated with a significantly decreased risk of cancer in both sexes. In men, hazard ratios for the second, third, and highest quartiles were 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.86, 1.07), and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.96), respectively (p for trend = 0.005); in women, hazard ratios were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.05), 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.96), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.97), respectively (p for trend = 0.007). The decreased risk was more clearly observed in women than in men, especially among the elderly and those who regularly engaged in leisure-time sports or physical exercise. By site, decreased risks were observed for cancers of the colon, liver, and pancreas in men and for cancer of the stomach in women. Increased daily physical activity may be beneficial in preventing cancer in a relatively lean population.

  7. The language of uncertainty in genetic risk communication: framing and verbal versus numerical information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkenhuysen, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; d'Ydewalle, G

    2001-05-01

    Within a group of 300 medical students, two characteristics of risk communication in the context of a decision regarding prenatal diagnosis for cystic fibrosis are manipulated: verbal versus numerical probabilities and the negative versus positive framing of the problem (having a child with versus without cystic fibrosis). Independently of the manipulations, most students were in favor of prenatal diagnosis. The effect of framing was only significant in the conditions with verbal information: negative framing produced a stronger choice in favor of prenatal diagnosis than positive framing. The framing effect in the verbal conditions and its absence in the numerical conditions are explained by the dominance of the problem-occurrence orientation in health matters as well as a recoding process which is more likely to occur in the numerical (the probability "1-P" switches to its counterpart "P") than in the verbal conditions. The implications for the practice of genetic counseling are discussed.

  8. Lifetime total and beverage specific - alcohol intake and prostate cancer risk: a case-control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carruba Giuseppe

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We investigated lifetime alcohol consumption and prostate cancer risk in a case-control study conducted in Buffalo, NY (1998–2001. Methods The study included 88 men, aged 45 to 85 years with incident, histologically-confirmed prostate cancer and 272 controls. We conducted extensive in-person interviews regarding lifetime alcohol consumption and other epidemiologic data. Results Prostate cancer risk was not associated with lifetime intake of total and beverage specific ethanol. In addition we found no association with number of drinks per day (average drinks per day over the lifetime or drinks per drinking day (average drinks per day on drinking days only over the lifetime. However, we observed an inverse association with the total number of drinking years. Men in the lowest tertile of total drinking years had a two-fold prostate cancer risk than men in the highest tertile (OR 2.16, 95% CI 0.98–4.78, p for trend Conclusion Our results suggest that alcohol intake distribution across lifetime may play a more important role in prostate cancer etiology than total lifetime consumption.

  9. Individualized Risk Model for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvizi, Javad; Huang, Ronald; Rezapoor, Maryam; Bagheri, Behrad; Maltenfort, Mitchell G

    2016-09-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) is a potentially fatal complication. Currently, a standard protocol for postoperative VTE prophylaxis is used that makes little distinction between patients at varying risks of VTE. We sought to develop a simple scoring system identifying patients at higher risk for VTE in whom more potent anticoagulation may need to be administered. Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample data, 1,721,806 patients undergoing TJA were identified, among whom 15,775 (0.9%) developed VTE after index arthroplasty. Among the cohort, all known potential risk factors for VTE were assessed. An initial logistic regression model using potential predictors for VTE was performed. Predictors with little contribution or poor predictive power were pruned from the data, and the model was refit. After pruning of variables that had little to no contribution to VTE risk, using the logistic regression, all independent predictors of VTE after TJA were identified in the data. Relative weights for each factor were determined. Hypercoagulability, metastatic cancer, stroke, sepsis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had some of the highest points. Patients with any of these conditions had risk for postoperative VTE that exceeded the 3% rate. Based on the model, an iOS (iPhone operating system) application was developed (VTEstimator) that could be used to assign patients into low or high risk for VTE after TJA. We believe individualization of VTE prophylaxis after TJA can improve the efficacy of preventing VTE while minimizing untoward risks associated with the administration of anticoagulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk factors for acute nerve injury after total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetty, Teena; Nguyen, Joseph T; Sasaki, Mayu; Wu, Anita; Bogner, Eric; Burge, Alissa; Cogsil, Taylor; Dalal, Aashka; Halvorsen, Kristin; Cummings, Kelianne; Su, Edwin P; Lyman, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    In this we study identified potential risk factors for post-total knee arthroplasty (TKA) nerve injury, a catastrophic complication with a reported incidence of 0.3%-1.3%. Patients who developed post-TKA nerve injury from 1998 to 2013 were identified, and each was matched with 2 controls. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to calculate odds ratios (ORs). Sixty-five nerve injury cases were identified in 39,990 TKAs (0.16%). Females (OR 3.28, P = 0.003) and patients with history of lumbar pathology (OR 6.12, P = 0.026) were associated with increased risk of nerve injury. Tourniquet pressure nerve injury was unexpected and requires further investigation. Muscle Nerve 57: 946-950, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. The need to estimate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1980-01-01

    In an increasing number of situations, it is becoming possible to obtain and compare numerical estimates of the biological risks involved in different alternative sources of action. In some cases these risks are similar in kind, as for example when the risk of including fatal cancer of the breast or stomach by x-ray screening of a population at risk, is compared with the risk of such cancers proving fatal if not detected by a screening programme. In other cases in which it is important to attempt a comparison, the risks are dissimilar in type, as when the safety of occupations involving exposure to radiation or chemical carcinogens is compared with that of occupations in which the major risks are from lung disease or from accidental injury and death. Similar problems of assessing the relative severity of unlike effects occur in any attempt to compare the total biological harm associated with a given output of electricity derived from different primary fuel sources, with its contributions both of occupation and of public harm. In none of these instances is the numerical frequency of harmful effects alone an adequate measure of total biological detriment, nor is such detriment the only factor which should influence decisions. Estimations of risk appear important however, since otherwise public health decisions are likely to be made on more arbitrary grounds, and public opinion will continue to be affected predominantly by the type rather than also by the size of risk. (author)

  12. Lifetime risk of primary total hip replacement surgery for osteoarthritis from 2003-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ackerman, Ilana N; Bohensky, Megan A; de Steiger, Richard

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement surgery (THR) for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. METHODS: Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, N....... These multi-national risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

  13. Dislocation of primary total hip arthroplasty and the risk of redislocation.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Brennan, Stephen A

    2012-09-01

    6554 primary total hip arthroplasties were reviewed. Risk factors for dislocation were analysed to assess which were important in terms of predicting recurrent instability. The patients risk of having a second dislocation was independently associated with the surgical approach adopted (p = 0.03) and the time to first dislocation from the primary hip replacement (p = 0.002). Early dislocators whose surgery was performed through an anterolateral approach had less recurrence than late dislocators through a posterior or transtrochanteric approach. None of the other risk factors including head size (p = 0.59), modularity (p = 0.54), mechanism of dislocation (p = 0.23), leg length discrepancy (p = 0.69) and acetabular inclination (p = 0.31) were influential. The use of an abduction brace was not useful in preventing a further dislocation with 69.2% of those braced re-dislocating compared to 68.5% who were not braced (p = 0.96).

  14. Development and Validation of Perioperative Risk-Adjustment Models for Hip Fracture Repair, Total Hip Arthroplasty, and Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Peter L; Bozic, Kevin J

    2016-01-06

    Comparing outcomes across providers requires risk-adjustment models that account for differences in case mix. The burden of data collection from the clinical record can make risk-adjusted outcomes difficult to measure. The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for hip fracture repair (HFR), total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) that weigh adequacy of risk adjustment against data-collection burden. We used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program to create derivation cohorts for HFR (n = 7000), THA (n = 17,336), and TKA (n = 28,661). We developed logistic regression models for each procedure using age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification, comorbidities, laboratory values, and vital signs-based comorbidities as covariates, and validated the models with use of data from 2012. The derivation models' C-statistics for mortality were 80%, 81%, 75%, and 92% and for adverse events were 68%, 68%, 60%, and 70% for HFR, THA, TKA, and combined procedure cohorts. Age, sex, and ASA classification accounted for a large share of the explained variation in mortality (50%, 58%, 70%, and 67%) and adverse events (43%, 45%, 46%, and 68%). For THA and TKA, these three variables were nearly as predictive as models utilizing all covariates. HFR model discrimination improved with the addition of comorbidities and laboratory values; among the important covariates were functional status, low albumin, high creatinine, disseminated cancer, dyspnea, and body mass index. Model performance was similar in validation cohorts. Risk-adjustment models using data from health records demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for HFR, THA, and TKA. It is possible to provide adequate risk adjustment using only the most predictive variables commonly available within the clinical record. This finding helps to inform the trade-off between model performance and data

  15. Selecting a Risk-Based SQC Procedure for a HbA1c Total QC Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, Sten A; Bayat, Hassan; Westgard, James O

    2017-09-01

    Recent US practice guidelines and laboratory regulations for quality control (QC) emphasize the development of QC plans and the application of risk management principles. The US Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) now includes an option to comply with QC regulations by developing an individualized QC plan (IQCP) based on a risk assessment of the total testing process. The Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) has provided new practice guidelines for application of risk management to QC plans and statistical QC (SQC). We describe an alternative approach for developing a total QC plan (TQCP) that includes a risk-based SQC procedure. CLIA compliance is maintained by analyzing at least 2 levels of controls per day. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a graphical tool to simplify the selection of risk-based SQC procedures. Current HbA1c method performance, as demonstrated by published method validation studies, is estimated to be 4-Sigma quality at best. Optimal SQC strategies require more QC than the CLIA minimum requirement of 2 levels per day. More complex control algorithms, more control measurements, and a bracketed mode of operation are needed to assure the intended quality of results. A total QC plan with a risk-based SQC procedure provides a simpler alternative to an individualized QC plan. A Sigma-Metric SQC Run Size nomogram provides a practical tool for selecting appropriate control rules, numbers of control measurements, and run size (or frequency of SQC). Applications demonstrate the need for continued improvement of analytical performance of HbA1c laboratory methods.

  16. Total sitting time, leisure time physical activity and risk of hospitalization due to low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balling, Mie; Holmberg, Teresa; Petersen, Christina B

    2018-01-01

    AIMS: This study aimed to test the hypotheses that a high total sitting time and vigorous physical activity in leisure time increase the risk of low back pain and herniated lumbar disc disease. METHODS: A total of 76,438 adults answered questions regarding their total sitting time and physical...... activity during leisure time in the Danish Health Examination Survey 2007-2008. Information on low back pain diagnoses up to 10 September 2015 was obtained from The National Patient Register. The mean follow-up time was 7.4 years. Data were analysed using Cox regression analysis with adjustment...... disc disease. However, moderate or vigorous physical activity, as compared to light physical activity, was associated with increased risk of low back pain (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30 and HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83). Moderate, but not vigorous physical activity was associated with increased risk...

  17. High dietary protein intake is associated with an increased body weight and total death risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Alonso, Pablo; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Corella, Dolores; Estruch, Ramón; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Gómez-Gracia, Enrique; Fiol, Miquel; Lapetra, José; Basora, Josep; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Muñoz, Miguel Ángel; Buil-Cosiales, Pilar; Saiz, Carmen; Bulló, Mònica

    2016-04-01

    High dietary protein diets are widely used to manage overweight and obesity. However, there is a lack of consensus about their long-term efficacy and safety. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of long-term high-protein consumption on body weight changes and death outcomes in subjects at high cardiovascular risk. A secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial was conducted. Dietary protein was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire during the follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for protein intake in relation to the risk of body weight and waist circumference changes, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular death, cancer death and total death. Higher total protein intake, expressed as percentage of energy, was significantly associated with a greater risk of weight gain when protein replaced carbohydrates (HR: 1.90; 95%CI: 1.05, 3.46) but not when replaced fat (HR: 1.69; 95%CI: 0.94, 3.03). However, no association was found between protein intake and waist circumference. Contrary, higher total protein intake was associated with a greater risk of all-cause death in both carbohydrate and fat substitution models (HR: 1.59; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.35; and HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.13, 2.43, respectively). A higher consumption of animal protein was associated with an increased risk of fatal and non-fatal outcomes when protein substituted carbohydrates or fat. Higher dietary protein intake is associated with long-term increased risk of body weight gain and overall death in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  18. Diabetes Mellitus and Hyperglycemia and the Risk of Aseptic Loosening in Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maradit Kremers, Hilal; Schleck, Cathy D; Lewallen, Eric A; Larson, Dirk R; Van Wijnen, Andre J; Lewallen, David G

    2017-09-01

    It is unknown to what extent diabetes mellitus modifies the long-term risk of aseptic loosening in total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). We examined the association between diabetes mellitus, perioperative hyperglycemia, and the likelihood of revisions for aseptic loosening. We studied 16,085 primary THA and TKA procedures performed at a large tertiary care hospital between 2002 and 2009. All blood glucose values around the time of surgery (within 1 week) were retrieved. Subsequent revision surgeries and the reasons for revision were ascertained through the institutional joint registry. Multivariate Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aseptic loosening associated with diabetes mellitus and hyperglycemia adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and surgery type. A total of 2911 (18%) surgeries had a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus at the time of surgery. Glucose testing was performed at least once in 7055 (44%) procedures within ±1 week of surgery. Although diabetic patients did not experience a higher risk of revision for aseptic loosening (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.55-1.38), higher preoperative glucose values on the day before surgery were significantly associated with both the overall risk of revisions (HR, 2.80; 95% CI, 1.00-7.85) and revisions for aseptic loosening (HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.26-19.54). High preoperative hyperglycemia is a potential risk factor for aseptic loosening in THA and TKA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Real-world effectiveness of valsartan on hypertension and total cardiovascular risk: review and implications of a translational research program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Ivo; MacDonald, Karen; Hermans, Christine; Aerts, Ann; Lee, Christopher; Brié, Heidi; Vancayzeele, Stefaan

    2011-01-01

    The pharmacological efficacy of various monotherapy, single pill, and combination therapies of the angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan have been established, mainly through randomized controlled trials that used similar methodological and statistical platforms and thus enabled synthesis of evidence. The real world effectiveness of valsartan has been studied extensively, but the relative lack of scientific and technical congruence of these studies render synthesis virtually impossible. To date, all have focused on blood pressure outcomes, despite evidence-based calls to grade antihypertensive treatment to patients’ total cardiovascular risk. We review a T3 translational research program of seven studies involving valsartan monotherapy as well as single and separate pill combinations, and the determinants and effect on blood pressure and total cardiovascular risk outcomes. All seven studies examined not only the impact of valsartan-based regimens on blood pressure values and control, but also, within a statistical hierarchical approach, the physician- and patient-related determinants of these blood pressure outcomes. Two studies also investigated the determinants and outcomes of valsartan-based treatment on total cardiovascular risk – among the first studies to use this risk coefficient as an outcome rather than only a determinant. These seven studies included a total of 19,533 patients, contributed by 3434 physician-investigators in Belgium – a country particularly well-suited for observational effectiveness studies because of demographics and epidemiology. Each study used the same methodological and statistical platform. We summarize the impact of various valsartan regimens on such outcomes as blood pressure values and control, change in total cardiovascular risk, and reduction in risk by at least one category. We also review the results of statistical multilevel and logistic modeling of physician- and patient-related determinants on these outcomes

  20. Communicating global cardiovascular risk: are icon arrays better than numerical estimates in improving understanding, recall and perception of risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Anam, Ramanakumar; Rodriguez, Remberto; Sharit, Joseph

    2013-12-01

    Experts recommend that adults have their global cardiovascular risk assessed. We investigated whether icon arrays increase understanding, recall, perception of CVR, and behavioral intent as compared with numerical information. Male outpatient veterans, at an intermediate to high cardiovascular risk participated in a randomized controlled trial of a computer tutorial presenting individualized risk. Message format was presented in 3 formats: percentages, frequencies, and frequencies with icon arrays. We assessed understanding immediately (T1) and recall at 20 min (T2) and 2 weeks (T3) after the intervention. We assessed perceptions of importance/seriousness, intent to adhere, and self-efficacy at T1. Self-reported adherence was assessed at T3. One-hundred and twenty male veterans participated. Age, education, race, health literacy and numeracy were comparable at baseline. There were no differences in understanding at T1 [p = .31] and recall at T3 [p = .10]. Accuracy was inferior with frequencies with icon arrays than percentages or frequencies at T2 [p ≤ .001]. There were no differences in perception of seriousness and importance for heart disease, behavioral intent, self-efficacy, actual adherence and satisfaction. Icon arrays may impair short-term recall of CVR. Icon arrays will not necessarily result in better understanding and recall of medical risk in all patients. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  1. Families at financial risk due to high ratio of out-of-pocket health care expenditures to total income.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kevin J; Dismuke, Clara E

    2010-05-01

    High out-of-pocket expenditures for health care can put individuals and families at financial risk. Several groups, including racial/ethnic minority groups, the uninsured, rural residents, and those in poorer health are at risk for this increased burden. The analysis utilized 2004-2005 MEPS data. The dependent variables were the out-of-pocket health care spending to total income ratios for total spending, office-based visits, and prescription drugs. Multivariate analyses with instrumental variables controlled for respondent characteristics. Gender, age, rurality, insurance coverage, health status, and health care utilization were all associated with higher out-of-pocket to income ratios. Certain groups, such as women, the elderly, those in poor health, and rural residents, are at a greater financial risk due to their higher out-of-pocket to total income spending ratios. Policymakers must be aware of these increased risks in order to provide adequate resources and targeted interventions to alleviate some of this burden.

  2. Risk Assessment of Total Coliform in X WTP’s Water Production Using Failure Mode And Effect Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bella Apriliani Amanda

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The greatest risk of drinking water supply is a failure to provide safe drinking water for communities. Based on IPA Kedunguling testing report on March 2016 noted that sample exceeding the quality standart of Peraturan Menteri Kesehatan RI No 492/2010 for the total coliform quality standart. The presence of total coliforms indicating water contamination by pathogen means the water is not safe to consume. The disinfection process has an importance rule in pathogen inactivation. Disinfectant performance is influenced by temperature, pH, turbidity, and the presence of organic materials. One way to control the quality of water produced by using a risk management approach Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA methods. The potential risks should be measured to determine causes of the problems and find the appropriate risk reduction. The risk assessment is using Risk Priority Number (RPN scale as a basis prioritization of remedial action on issues. Based on identification and risk analysis using FMEA known that the greatest risk of failure is the stipulation of chlorine dose and organic substances (category of high risk level; residual chlorine (category of moderate risk level; turbidity and pH (very low risk level category. Improvement proposal that can be done to reduce total coliforms presence in IPA Kedunguling is by increasing residual chlorine to 0.6 mg/l, set a daily chlorine level, controlling DBPs forming by lowering the concentration of organic precursor using granular activated carbon (GAC or aeration, by lowering the dose of disinfectant, set aside DBPs after the compound is formed using granular activated carbon (GAC, turbidity and pH monitoring, and regularly washing the filters

  3. Real-world effectiveness of valsartan on hypertension and total cardiovascular risk: review and implications of a translational research program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham I

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Ivo Abraham1,2, Karen MacDonald2, Christine Hermans3, Ann Aerts3, Christopher Lee2,4, Heidi Brié3, Stefaan Vancayzeele31Center for Health Outcomes and Pharmacoeconomic Research, and Department of Pharmacy Practice and Science, College of Pharmacy, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA; 2Matrix45, Earlysville, VA, USA; 3Novartis Pharma, Vilvoorde, Belgium; 4School of Nursing, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USAAbstract: The pharmacological efficacy of various monotherapy, single pill, and combination therapies of the angiotensin II receptor blocker valsartan have been established, mainly through randomized controlled trials that used similar methodological and statistical platforms and thus enabled synthesis of evidence. The real world effectiveness of valsartan has been studied extensively, but the relative lack of scientific and technical congruence of these studies render synthesis virtually impossible. To date, all have focused on blood pressure outcomes, despite evidence-based calls to grade antihypertensive treatment to patients' total cardiovascular risk. We review a T3 translational research program of seven studies involving valsartan monotherapy as well as single and separate pill combinations, and the determinants and effect on blood pressure and total cardiovascular risk outcomes. All seven studies examined not only the impact of valsartan-based regimens on blood pressure values and control, but also, within a statistical hierarchical approach, the physician- and patient-related determinants of these blood pressure outcomes. Two studies also investigated the determinants and outcomes of valsartan-based treatment on total cardiovascular risk – among the first studies to use this risk coefficient as an outcome rather than only a determinant. These seven studies included a total of 19,533 patients, contributed by 3434 physician-investigators in Belgium – a country particularly well-suited for observational

  4. The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1994-10-01

    The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approach - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.

  5. Communicating risk using absolute risk reduction or prolongation of life formats

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Charlotte Gry; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø; Larsen, Pia Veldt

    2014-01-01

    . The COMRADE questionnaire was used to measure patients' confidence in their decision and satisfaction with the risk communication. RESULTS: Of the 240 patients included for analyses, 112 were allocated to POL information and 128 to ARR. Patients redeeming a statin prescription totalled six (5.4%) when...... informed using POL, and 32 (25.0%) when using ARR. The level of confidence in decision and satisfaction with risk communication did not differ between the risk formats. CONCLUSION: Patients redeemed statin prescriptions less often when their GP communicated treatment effectiveness using POL compared......BACKGROUND: It is important that patients are well-informed about risks and benefits of therapies to help them decide whether to accept medical therapy. Different numerical formats can be used in risk communication but It remains unclear how the different formats affect decisions made by real...

  6. Assessment of Total Risk on Non-Target Organisms in Fungicide Application for Agricultural Sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Musa Bozdogan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In Turkey, in 2010, the amount of pesticide (active ingredient; a.i. used in agriculture was about 23,000 metric tons, of which approximately 32% was fungicides. In 2012, 14 a.i. were used for fungus control in wheat cultivation areas in Adana province, Turkey. These a.i. were: azoxystrobin, carbendazim, difenoconazole, epoxiconazole, fluquinconazole, prochloraz, propiconazole, prothioconazole, pyraclostrobin, spiroxamine, tebuconazole, thiophanate-methyl, triadimenol, and trifloxystrobin. In this study, the potential risk of a.i. on non-target organisms in fungicide application of wheat cultivation was assessed by The Pesticide Occupational and Environmental Risk (POCER indicators. In this study, the highest human health risk was for fluquinconazole (Exceedence Factor (EF 1.798 for human health, whereas the fungicide with the highest environmental risk was propiconazole (EF 2.000 for the environment. For non-target organisms, the highest potential risk was determined for propiconazole when applied at 0.1250 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 2.897. The lowest total risk was for azoxystrobin when applied at  0.0650 kg a.i. ha-1 (EF 0.625.

  7. The preparation of landslide map by Landslide Numerical Risk Factor (LNRF model and Geographic Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi Torkashvand

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the risks to threaten mountainous areas is that hillslope instability caused damage to lands. One of the most dangerous instabilities is mass movement and much movement occurs due to slip. The aim of this study is zonation of landslide hazards in a basin of the Ardebil province, the eastern slopes of Sabalan, Iran. Geological and geomorphologic conditions, climate and type of land use have caused susceptibility of this watershed to landslides. Firstly, maps of the main factors affecting landslide occurrence including slope, distance from faults, lithology, elevation and precipitation were prepared and digitized. Then, by using interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images and field views, the ground truth map of landslides was prepared. Each basic layer (factor and landslide map were integrated to compute the numeric value of each factor with the help of a Landslide Numerical Risk Factor (LNRF model and landslide occurrence percent obtained in different units from each of the maps. Finally, with overlapping different data layers, a landslide hazard zonation map was prepared. Results showed that 67.85% of the basin has high instability, 7.76% moderate instability and 24.39% low instability.

  8. [Risk factors for elevated serum total bile acid in preterm infants].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yan-Ting; Wang, Yong-Qin; Zhao, Yue-Hua; Zhu, Hai-Ling; Liu, Qian; Zhang, Xiao; Gao, Yi-Wen; Zhang, Wei-Ye; Sang, Yu-Tong

    2018-03-01

    To study the risk factors for elevated serum total bile acid (TBA) in preterm infants. A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 216 preterm infants who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. According to the presence or absence of elevated TBA (TBA >24.8 μmol/L), the preterm infants were divided into elevated TBA group with 53 infants and non-elevated TBA group with 163 infants. A univariate analysis and an unconditional multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to investigate the risk factors for elevated TBA. The univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences between the elevated TBA group and the non-elevated TBA group in gestational age at birth, birth weight, proportion of small-for-gestational-age infants, proportion of infants undergoing ventilator-assisted ventilation, fasting time, parenteral nutrition time, and incidence of neonatal respiratory failure and sepsis (PTBA in preterm infants. Low birth weight and neonatal sepsis may lead to elevated TBA in preterm infants.

  9. SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN CENTRAL BANKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radoica Luburić

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on two very important and current approaches to management: Total Quality Management (TQM and Operational Risk Management (ORM. As a paradigm of business success, TQM provides the key assumptions for survival, development and success of an organisation, regardless of any limitations whatsoever. ORM, on the other hand, is predetermined to be an irreplaceable managerial tool that enables organisations to survive in any environment. In times of accelerated political, economic and technological changes, frequent natural disasters, acts of terrorism and other external events, a successful risk management has been gaining importance and becomes one of the key competitive advantages of an organisation. The ultimate objective is to make TQM and ORM, as two rather compatible and complementary approaches to risk management, harmonized, efficient and functional in order to get their synergistic effects in an organisation in full swing and practice. Various organisations, and thus central banks as conservative institutions, have an innovative opportunity to timely minimize their operational risk through preventive, comprehensive and synergistic operation of TQM and ORM and thus significantly contribute to improving their business performance.

  10. Application of Total Quality Management (TQM) Requirements in Risk Management in Construction Projects in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Entisar K. Al-Geelawee; Anfal Nadhel Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    Total quality management considers one of the modern scientific entrances which practiced by productivity service organizations alike to provide appropriate quality required outputs according to the needs and desires of customers manage , enable the organization seeking to continue and grow in light of the increasing competition from the satisfy and provide the appropriate total quality management requirements whenever led to face risks that they may have in a manner in which they can be a...

  11. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

  12. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10 −5 to 837.4 × 10 −5 depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10 −5 . The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10 −5 and 110.3 × 10 −5 for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10 −5 .Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the treatment parameters, organ

  13. [Case-control study on effect of rivaroxaban on the risk of hidden bleeding after total hip arthroplasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Jing, Jue-Hua; Shi, Zhan-Jun; Zhou, Yun

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the risk of hidden blood loss about applying rivaroxaban after total hip arthroplasty. From October 2009 to May 2012,88 patients with femoral head necrosis were treated with primary total hip arthroplasty. All the patients were divided into Rivaroxaban group(44 cases)and control group(44 cases). There were 25 males and 19 females in the Rivaroxaban group, with an average age of (58.48 +/- 15.19) years old; in the control group,24 patients were male and 20 patients were female, with an average age of (61.11 +/- 13.54) years old. The patients in the Rivaroxaban group took Rivaroxaban orally from the first day after operation with a dose of 10 mg each day, and treatment course was 14 days. The patients in the control group took placebo orally at the same time. Dominant blood loss and transfusion were recorded, blood routine examinations were taken before operation and at 3 days after operation. The total blood loss and hidden blood loss were calculated according to the formula. The mean total blood loss was (1509.56 +/- 325.23) ml and the hidden blood loss was(581.47 +/- 215.01) ml, accounting for (37.88 +/- 10.42)% in the Rivaroxaban group. The mean total blood loss was (1262.30 +/- 397.95) ml and the hidden blood loss was (395.59 +/- 97.33) ml, accounting for (30.62 +/- 0.20)% in the control group. The total blood loss, hidden blood loss and transfusion in the Rivaroxaban group was significantly more than those in control group,b ut there was no significant difference on dominant blood loss between two groups. Rivaroxaban increased the overall bleeding risk of total hip arthroplasty, especially hidden bleeding risk, which should be careful used.

  14. Prevalence and risk factors for postoperative delirium in total joint arthroplasty patients: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wenliang; Ke, Xiurong; Wang, Xiaoqing; Sun, Xiaoliang; Wang, Juncheng; Yang, Guojing; Xia, Haijie; Zhang, Lei

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this prospective study was to investigate the incidence and clinical features of delirium after total joint arthroplasty, and to establish the potential risk factors for postoperative delirium. A total of 212 consecutive patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty, who met the inclusion and exclusive criteria were enrolled. The general characteristics, preoperative and postoperative hematological variables were documented respectively. According to the presence of delirium, all patients were divided into the delirium group and non-delirium group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify the possible predictors for postoperative delirium. At a minimum of 6months of follow-up, 35 patients were observed with postoperative delirium at an estimated total incidence of 16.5%. The incidence of delirium was statistically higher in hip arthroplasty (22.8%) than that in knee arthroplasty (7.1%). The multivariate regression analysis identified older age (OR=1.590, P=0.023), a history of stroke (OR=190.23, P=0.036), preoperative PaO 2 (OR=1.277, P=0.018) and equivalent fentanyl dose (OR=1.010, P=0.012) as the predictive factors for postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty. The incidence of postoperative delirium after total joint arthroplasty is higher than expected. Based on our findings, we suggest that the surgeons should focus on those patients who have these risk factors and ensure the appropriate management to avoid postoperative delirium. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk factors for accelerated polyethylene wear and osteolysis in ABG I total hip arthroplasty

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gallo, J.; Havránek, Vítězslav; Zapletová, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 34, č. 1 (2013), 19-26 ISSN 0341-2695 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) OC 168 Program:OC Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100522 Keywords : risk * factors * accelerated * polyethylene * wear * osteolysis * ABG * total * arthroplasty Subject RIV: FI - Traumatology, Orthopedics Impact factor: 2.019, year: 2013

  16. Incidence, Risk Factors, and Clinical Implications of Pneumonia Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohl, Daniel D; Saltzman, Bryan M; Sershon, Robert A; Darrith, Brian; Okroj, Kamil T; Della Valle, Craig J

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the incidence, risk factors, and clinical implications of pneumonia following total joint arthroplasty (TJA). The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to conduct a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing TJA. Independent risk factors for the development of pneumonia within 30 days of TJA were identified using multivariate regression. Mortality and readmission rates were compared between patients who did and did not develop pneumonia. Multivariate regression was used to adjust for all demographic, comorbidity, and procedural characteristics. In total, 171,200 patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 66,493 (38.8%) underwent THA and 104,707 (61.2%) underwent TKA. Of the 171,200 patients, 590 developed pneumonia, yielding a rate of 0.34% (95% confidence interval = 0.32%-0.37%). Independent risk factors for pneumonia were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, greater age (most notably ≥80 years), dyspnea on exertion, dependent functional status, lower body mass index, hypertension, current smoker status, and male sex. The subset of patients who developed pneumonia following discharge had a higher readmission rate (82.1% vs 3.4%, adjusted relative risk [RR] = 16.6, P pneumonia. Pneumonia is a serious complication following TJA that occurs in approximately 1 in 300 patients. Approximately 4 in 5 patients who develop pneumonia are subsequently readmitted, and approximately 1 in 25 die. Given the serious implications of this complication, evidence-based pneumonia prevention programs including oral hygiene with chlorhexidine, sitting upright for meals, elevation of the head of the bed to at least 30°, aggressive incentive spirometry, and early ambulation should be considered for patients at greatest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Fatores de Risco para Infecção Pós-histerectomia Total Abdominal Risk Factors for Infection after Total Abdominal Hysterectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melania Maria Ramos de Amorim

    2000-08-01

    with the occurrence of surgical site infection in patients submitted to total abdominal hysterectomy at the Instituto Materno ¾ Infantil de Pernambuco (iMIP. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted, enrolling patients submitted to total abdominal hysterectomy at IMIP who returned to postsurgical consultation for infection control, between January, 1995 and December, 1998 (n = 414. The frequency of surgical site infection (defined according to the CDC criteria, 1998 was 10% (42 cases. Prevalence risk (PR of infection (dependent variable and its 95% confidence interval (CI were calculated for independent variables: age, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, malignant pathology, type of incision, duration of surgery and antibiotic prophylaxis. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine adjusted risk of infection. Results: a significantly increased risk of infection was found for the following variables: age >60 years (PR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.15-4.94, obesity (PR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.83-5.59, duration of surgery >2 hours (PR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.32-4.21 and diabetes (PR = 6.0, 95% CI = 3.41-10.57. On the other hand, risk of infection was significantly reduced when antibiotic prophylaxis was administered (PR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.21-0.68. Type of incision, malignant disease and hypertension were not associated with infection. Conclusions: the factors associated with increased risk of surgical site infection after total abdominal hysterectomy at IMIP were: age >60 years, obesity, diabetes and surgical duration >2 hours. Antibiotic prophylaxis showed a protective effect with reduction of risk of infection.

  18. Total, caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and tea intake and gastric cancer risk : Results from the EPIC cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanikini, Harinakshi; Dik, Vincent K.; Siersema, Peter D.; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Uiterwaal, Cuno S. P. M.; Peeters, Petra H. M.; Alez, Carlos A. Gonz; Zamora-Ros, Raul; Overvad, Kim; Nneland, Anne Tj; Roswall, Nina; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Racine, Antoine; Kuehn, Tilman; Katzke, Verena; Boeing, Heiner; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Grioni, Sara; Vineis, Paolo; Tumino, Rosario; Panico, Salvatore; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Braaten, Tonje; Huerta, Jose Maria; Sanchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Barricarte, Aurelio; Sonestedt, Emily; Wallstrom, Peter; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Johansson, Ingegerd; Bradbury, Kathryn E.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Huybrechts, Inge; Freisling, Heinz; Cross, Amanda J.; Riboli, Elio; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B(as)

    2015-01-01

    Prospective studies examining the association between coffee and tea consumption and gastric cancer risk have shown inconsistent results. We investigated the association between coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea consumption and the risk of gastric cancer by anatomical site and

  19. Plasma Total Antioxidant Capacity and Cardiometabolic Risk in Non-Obese and Clinically Healthy Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Jamille Oliveira; Vásquez, Cecília M Passos; Santana, Gleiciane de Jesus; Silva, Natanael de Jesus; Braz, Juciene de Matos; Jesus, Amélia M Ribeiro de; Silva, Danielle Góes da; Cunha, Luana Celina Seraphim; Barbosa, Kiriaque Barra Ferreira

    2017-07-10

    The oxidative biomarkers play an important role in the genesis of cardiometabolic risk-related processes. To investigate the total antioxidant capacity of plasma and its association with cardiometabolic risk in non-obese and clinically healthy young adults. University students of the state of Sergipe, Brazil, aged between 18 and 25 years, were recruited for this study from May of 2013 and October of 2014. Anthropometric, clinical and biochemical parameters were measured and analyzed using protocols which were previously standardized and described in the literature. The measurement of plasma total antioxidant capacity was based on the ability that all the antioxidants present in the sample (plasma) have to inhibit the oxidation of the oxidizable substrate ABTS (2,2`- Azino-di-[3-ethylbenzthiazoline sulphonate]) to ABTS•+ by metmyoglobin. Approximately 25% of the sample presented more than one component of cardiometabolic risk. Low HDL-cholesterol was the most prevalent component. Compared to absence of components, the subjects with at least one component presented greater body weight and waist circumference, higher levels of diastolic blood pressure and fasting glucose, greater total cholesterol/HDL-c ratio, and lower levels of HDL-c (p literatura. A medida da capacidade antioxidante total do plasma baseou-se na capacidade de todos os antioxidantes presentes na amostra (plasma) em inibir a oxidação do substrato oxidável ABTS (2,2-Azino-bis-(3-etilbenzotiazolina-6-sulfonato) a ABTS•+ pela metamioglobina. Aproximadamente 25% da amostra apresentaram mais de um componente do risco cardiometabólico. Valores baixos de HDL foram o componente mais prevalente. Em comparação à ausência de componentes, os indivíduos com pelo menos um componente apresentou valores mais altos de peso corporal, circunferência da cintura, pressão sanguínea diastólica, glicemia de jejum e razão colesterol total/HDL-c, e valores mais baixos de HDL-c (p < 0,05). A glicemia de jejum

  20. Rate and Risk Factors for Periprosthetic Joint Infection Among 36,494 Primary Total Hip Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllopoulos, Georgios K; Soranoglou, Vasileios G; Memtsoudis, Stavros G; Sculco, Thomas P; Poultsides, Lazaros A

    2018-04-01

    As periprosthetic joint infections (PJIs) can have tremendous health and socioeconomic implications, recognizing patients at risk before surgery is of great importance. Therefore, we sought to determine the rate of and risk factors for deep PJI in patients undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). Clinical characteristics of patients treated with primary THA between January 1999 and December 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. These included patient demographics, comorbidities (including the Charlson/Deyo comorbidity index), length of stay, primary diagnosis, total/allogeneic transfusion rate, and in-hospital complications, which were grouped into local and systemic (minor and major). We determined the overall deep PJI rate, as well as the rates for early-onset (occurring within 2 years after index surgery) and late-onset PJI (occurring more than 2 years after surgery). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to identify risk factors for developing deep PJI. Significance level was set at 0.05. A deep PJI developed in 154 of 36,494 primary THAs (0.4%) during the study period. Early onset PJI was found in 122 patients (0.3%), whereas late PJI occurred in 32 patients (0.1%). Obesity, coronary artery disease, and pulmonary hypertension were identified as independent risk factors for deep PJI after primary THA. The rate of deep PJIs of the hip is relatively low, with the majority occurring within 2 years after THA. If the optimization of modifiable risk factors before THA can reduce the rate of this complication remains unknown, but should be attempted as part of good practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A probabilistic approach for debris impact risk with numerical simulations of debris behaviors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kihara, Naoto; Matsuyama, Masafumi; Fujii, Naoki

    2013-01-01

    We propose a probabilistic approach for evaluating the impact risk of tsunami debris through Monte Carlo simulations with a combined system comprising a depth-averaged two-dimensional shallow water model and a discrete element model customized to simulate the motions of floating objects such as vessels. In the proposed method, first, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis is carried out, and the exceedance probability of tsunami height and numerous tsunami time series for various hazard levels on the offshore side of a target site are estimated. Second, a characteristic tsunami time series for each hazard level is created by cluster analysis. Third, using the Monte Carlo simulation model the debris impact probability with the buildings of interest and the exceedance probability of debris impact speed are evaluated. (author)

  2. Communicating quantitative risks and benefits in promotional prescription drug labeling or print advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Suzanne L; Squiers, Linda B; McCormack, Lauren; Southwell, Brian G; Brouwer, Emily S; Ashok, Mahima; Lux, Linda; Boudewyns, Vanessa; O'Donoghue, Amie; Sullivan, Helen W

    2013-05-01

    Under the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, all promotional materials for prescription drugs must strike a fair balance in presentation of risks and benefits. How to best present this information is not clear. We sought to determine if the presentation of quantitative risk and benefit information in drug advertising and labeling influences consumers', patients', and clinicians' information processing, knowledge, and behavior by assessing available empirical evidence. We used PubMed for a literature search, limiting to articles published in English from 1990 forward. Two reviewers independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for inclusion, after which we reviewed the full texts to determine if they communicated risk/benefit information either: (i) numerically (e.g., percent) versus non-numerically (e.g., using text such as "increased risk") or (ii) numerically using different formats (e.g., "25% of patients", "one in four patients", or use of pictographs). We abstracted information from included articles into standardized evidence tables. The research team identified a total of 674 relevant publications, of which 52 met our inclusion criteria. Of these, 37 focused on drugs. Presenting numeric information appears to improve understanding of risks and benefits relative to non-numeric presentation; presenting both numeric and non-numeric information when possible may be best practice. No single specific format or graphical approach emerged as consistently superior. Numeracy and health literacy also deserve more empirical attention as moderators. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for the Development of Postoperative Hepatic Steatosis After Total Pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hata, Tatsuo; Ishida, Masaharu; Motoi, Fuyuhiko; Sakata, Naoaki; Yoshimatsu, Gumpei; Naitoh, Takeshi; Katayose, Yu; Egawa, Shinichi; Unno, Michiaki

    2016-03-01

    The occurrence of hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is known to be associated with the remnant pancreatic function. However, other risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy remain unknown. The aims of this study were to identify other risk factors in addition to the remnant pancreatic function and elucidate the relationship between postoperative hepatic steatosis and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency in totally pancreatomized patients. Forty-three patients who underwent total pancreatectomy were analyzed. Hepatic steatosis was defined as the attenuation of unenhanced computed tomography values. Clinical findings and laboratory data were compared between patients with and without hepatic steatosis. Sixteen (37.2%) patients developed hepatic steatosis after total pancreatectomy, with marked declines in the Controlling Nutritional Status score and body mass index. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that the attenuation of computed tomography values was correlated with female sex (P = 0.002), early postoperative serum albumin levels (P = 0.003), and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy with high-dose pancrelipase (P = 0.032). Postoperative hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy is associated with sex, malnutrition, and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. High-dose pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy may have preventive effects on hepatic steatosis occurring after pancreatectomy.

  4. Progressive risk assessment of polychlorinated biphenyls through a Total Diet Study in the Korean population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Eun-su; Nguyen, Khanh-Hoang; Kim, Jongchul; Kim, Cho-il; Chang, Yoon-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Human exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from foods was investigated through a Total Diet Study (TDS) for the first time in Korea. A representative food list was developed from food intake data. Non-selected foods were also included in the TDS through the mapping process to anticipate practical risk assessment. For better representativeness, data (2008–2011) from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were combined with the TDS data set. And also, we estimated the dietary exposure to PCBs from various food items using a ‘best-fit’ mapping process and assessed the differences in PCB exposures by sex and age. In this study, we examined total PCBs (62 congeners) including dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and indicator PCBs, which are congeners that are mainly detected in various environmental matrices. The average dietary exposure (3.94 ng/kg body weight/day) that was estimated through food intake was 19.7% of the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation. - Highlights: • A total of 282 samples, composed of the most consumed foodstuffs in Korea, were analysed and shown in detail. • The contamination status of total PCBs in food was assessed, through their various condition on cooking methods. • The dietary intakes of PCBs in various food groups were estimated in different region, gender and age groups. • The improved and systematic food selection process was applied such as ‘mapping process’. - This study is to ensure food safety through total analysis of PCBs with the improved risk assessment method.

  5. Total Probability of Collision as a Metric for Finite Conjunction Assessment and Collision Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.; Plakalovic, Dragan

    2015-01-01

    On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.

  6. Alternative Payment Models Should Risk-Adjust for Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Schairer, William W; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Halsey, David A; Iorio, Richard; Padgett, Douglas E

    2017-12-06

    For Medicare beneficiaries, hospital reimbursement for nonrevision hip arthroplasty is anchored to either diagnosis-related group code 469 or 470. Under alternative payment models, reimbursement for care episodes is not further risk-adjusted. This study's purpose was to compare outcomes of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) vs conversion THA to explore the rationale for risk adjustment for conversion procedures. All primary and conversion THAs from 2007 to 2014, excluding acute hip fractures and cancer patients, were identified in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Conversion and primary THA patients were matched 1:1 using propensity scores, based on preoperative covariates. Multivariable logistic regressions evaluated associations between conversion THA and 30-day outcomes. A total of 2018 conversions were matched to 2018 primaries. There were no differences in preoperative covariates. Conversions had longer operative times (148 vs 95 minutes, P reimbursement models shift toward bundled payment paradigms, conversion THA appears to be a procedure for which risk adjustment is appropriate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Survey of numerical safety targets for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelley, A.P. Jr.; Buttemer, D.R.

    1981-04-01

    The construction of a nuclear power plant implies, as does the construction of any major public work, the acceptance of a finite degree of risk. This risk can be reduced by an increased investment in engineered safeguards. However, at some level of risk, overinvestment in safety can render the project uneconomical. Because of the desirability of fixing safety standards on an absolute basis, there has long been an interest in establishing numerical risk criteria for the design, construction, and operation of nuclear power plants. Interest in the subject of numerical safety goals has recently been intensified by the Three Mile Island Action Plan. The USNRC has been directed by Congress to develop a national safety goal for reactor regulation. This report summarizes actions which have been historically, and are currently, taking place toward establishing national numerical risk targets for reactor regulation. Emphasis is placed upon actions taken, or currently being taken, by federal regulatory agencies and directly associated advisory bodies

  8. Unconstrained tripolar implants for primary total hip arthroplasty in patients at risk for dislocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyen, Olivier; Pibarot, Vincent; Vaz, Gualter; Chevillotte, Christophe; Carret, Jean-Paul; Bejui-Hugues, Jacques

    2007-09-01

    We performed a retrospective study on 167 primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) procedures in 163 patients at high risk for instability to assess the reliability of unconstrained tripolar implants (press-fit outer metal shell articulating a bipolar polyethylene component) in preventing dislocations. Eighty-four percent of the patients had at least 2 risk factors for dislocation. The mean follow-up length was 40.2 months. No dislocation was observed. Harris hip scores improved significantly. Six hips were revised, and no aseptic loosening of the cup was observed. The tripolar implant was extremely successful in achieving stability. However, because of the current lack of data documenting polyethylene wear at additional bearing, the routine use of tripolar implants in primary THA is discouraged and should be considered at the present time only for selected patients at high risk for dislocation and with limited activities.

  9. Using ambient vibration measurements for risk assessment at an urban scale: from numerical proof of concept to Beirut case study (Lebanon)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salameh, Christelle; Bard, Pierre-Yves; Guillier, Bertrand; Harb, Jacques; Cornou, Cécile; Gérard, Jocelyne; Almakari, Michelle

    2017-04-01

    Post-seismic investigations repeatedly indicate that structures having frequencies close to foundation soil frequencies exhibit significantly heavier damages (Caracas 1967; Mexico 1985; Pujili, Ecuador 1996; L'Aquila 2009). However, observations of modal frequencies of soils and buildings in a region or within a current seismic risk analysis are not fully considered together, even when past earthquakes have demonstrated that coinciding soil and building frequencies leads to greater damage. The present paper thus focuses on a comprehensive numerical analysis to investigate the effect of coincidence between site and building frequencies. A total of 887 realistic soil profiles are coupled with a set of 141 single-degree-of-freedom elastoplastic oscillators, and their combined (nonlinear) response is computed for both linear and nonlinear soil behaviors, for a large number (60) of synthetic input signals with various PGA levels and frequency contents. The associated damage is quantified on the basis of the maximum displacement as compared to both yield and ultimate post-elastic displacements, according to the RISK-UE project recommendations (Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi in Bull Earthq Eng 4(4):415-443, 2006), and compared with the damage obtained in the case of a similar building located on rock. The correlation between this soil/rock damage increment and a number of simplified mechanical and loading parameters is then analyzed using a neural network approach. The results emphasize the key role played by the building/soil frequency ratio even when both soil and building behave nonlinearly; other important parameters are the PGA level, the soil/rock velocity contrast and the building ductility. A numerical investigation based on simulation of ambient noise for the whole set of 887 profiles also indicates that the amplitude of H/ V ratio may be considered as a satisfactory proxy for site amplification when applied to measurements at urban scale. A very easy implementation

  10. Pre-Operative Patient Education is Associated With Decreased Risk of Arthrofibrosis After Total Knee Arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Livbjerg, Anna Emilie; Frøkjær, Sara; Simonsen, Ole

    2013-01-01

    The purpose was to investigate risk factors for postoperative stiffness and long-term outcome following manipulation under anaesthesia (MUA). In one of the five Danish regions, all patients in a 4-year period who received MUA following total knee arthroplasty (N=36) were included in two case-cont...

  11. Increased risk of revision for infection in rheumatoid arthritis patients with total hip replacements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrama, Johannes Cornelis; Fenstad, Anne M; Dale, Håvard

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose-Medical treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has changed dramatically over the last 15 years, including immune modulation. We investigated the risk of revision for infection after primary total hip replacement (THR) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over a 16-year...... period, and compared it with that in THR patients with osteoarthritis (OA).Patients and methods-We identified 13,384 THRs in RA patients and 377,287 THRs in OA patients from 1995 through 2010 in a dataset from the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA). Kaplan-Meier survival curves......, with revision for infection as the endpoint, were constructed. Cox regression analyses were performed to calculate the relative risk (RR) of revision for infection adjusted for age, sex, fixation technique, and year of primary surgery.Results-RA patients had a 1.3 times (95% CI 1.0-1.6) higher risk of revision...

  12. Genetic Schizophrenia Risk Variants Jointly Modulate Total Brain and White Matter Volume

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Afke F; Bakker, Steven C; van Haren, Neeltje E M

    2013-01-01

    with total brain volume (R(2)=.048, p=1.6×10(-4)) and white matter volume (R(2)=.051, p=8.6×10(-5)) equally in patients and control subjects. The number of (independent) SNPs that substantially influenced both disease risk and white matter (n=2020) was much smaller than the entire set of SNPs that modulated...... modulating schizophrenia and brain volume. METHODS: Odds ratios for genome-wide SNP data were calculated in the sample collected by the Psychiatric Genome-wide Association Study Consortium (8690 schizophrenia patients and 11,831 control subjects, excluding subjects from the present study). These were used...

  13. Estimating and localizing the algebraic and total numerical errors using flux reconstructions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Papež, Jan; Strakoš, Z.; Vohralík, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 138, č. 3 (2018), s. 681-721 ISSN 0029-599X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-06684S Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1202 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : numerical solution of partial differential equations * finite element method * a posteriori error estimation * algebraic error * discretization error * stopping criteria * spatial distribution of the error Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.152, year: 2016

  14. Total flight hours, irritated and burning eye and risk of mild myopia in civilian pilots in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pritha Maya Savitri

    2016-07-01

      in civilian aviator and other populatian. This study aims to identify risk factors that affect the incidence of mild myopia in  civilian pilot in Indonesia. Methods: This study using cross-sectional method with purposive sampling. Subjects answered the questionaire.  Subject of this study are 21-45 years old male civilian aviators which performs scheduled medical check up at Civil Aviatian Medical Centre at May 5 – 21, 2014. The researcher using the medical record to get data about visual acuity. Cox regression analyses using Stata 9. Mild myopia in this study is defect distant visual acuity with corrected lens power -0.25 s/d -0.30. Results: The percentage of mild myopia in this study was 36%. Subjects with a total of 1000 hours of flying hours or more had a 28% higher risk of experiencing mild myopia [relative risk (RRa = 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI = 1.00 to 1.64; P = 0.047]. A history of parental myopia will increase the risk of mild myopia 5 times (RRa = 5.32, P = 0.000. Subjects with symptoms of difficulty focus has 48% higher risk of experiencing mild myopia (RRa = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.85, P = 0.001. Subjects with symptoms such as eye irritation, gritty, burning has a 54% lower risk of experiencing mild myopia (RRa = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.26-0.83, P = 0.009. Conclusions: Total flight time, parental myopia, visual fatigue; difficulty in focusing and foggy letters are influenced risk factors for mild myopia in civilian aviator in Indonesia. Key words: mild myopia, civilian aviator, total flight time, Indonesia.

  15. Code development for eigenvalue total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Zu, Tiejun; Shen, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop a new code for total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The implicit effects of cross sections can be considered. • The results of our code agree well with TSUNAMI-1D. • Detailed analysis for origins of implicit effects is performed. - Abstract: The uncertainties of multigroup cross sections notably impact eigenvalue of neutron-transport equation. We report on a total sensitivity analysis and total uncertainty analysis code named UNICORN that has been developed by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and statistical sampling method. In order to consider the contributions of various basic cross sections and the implicit effects which are indirect results of multigroup cross sections through resonance self-shielding calculation, an improved multigroup cross-section perturbation model is developed. The DRAGON 4.0 code, with application of WIMSD-4 format library, is used by UNICORN to carry out the resonance self-shielding and neutron-transport calculations. In addition, the bootstrap technique has been applied to the statistical sampling method in UNICORN to obtain much steadier and more reliable uncertainty results. The UNICORN code has been verified against TSUNAMI-1D by analyzing the case of TMI-1 pin-cell. The numerical results show that the total uncertainty of eigenvalue caused by cross sections can reach up to be about 0.72%. Therefore the contributions of the basic cross sections and their implicit effects are not negligible

  16. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  17. For which option is credit risk more representative on China banks' total factor productivity Efficiency change or technological progress?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fadzlan Sufian

    2012-01-01

    Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of credit risk on China banks' total factor productivity.Design/methodology/approach-The paper employs the Malmquist Productivity Index (MP1) which allows for the examination of five different indices:total factor productivity change (TFPCH);technological change (TECHCH);efficiency change (EFFCH);pure technical efficiency change (PEFFCH);and scale efficiency change (SECH) indices.Findings-The empirical findings indicate that the State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCB),Joint Stock Commercial Banks (JSCB),and City Commercial Banks (CCB) have exhibited lower TFPCH levels with the inclusion of risk factor.It was found that the JSCB and CCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to TECHCH,while the SOCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to EFFCH.The empirical findings suggest that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a higher JSCB EFFCH levels.On the other hand,the SOCB and CCB have exhibited a lower EFFCH levels due to SECH and PEFFCH,respectively.Research limitations/implications-The results clearly highlight the importance of credit risk and lending quality in determining the total factor productivity change of banks operating in the China banking sector.The author demonstrates that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a lower TFPCH level of all banks operating in the China banking sector.Thus,excluding the credit risk factor from the analysis on the China banking sector may potentially bias the result upwards.Practical impIications-In an environment of heavy government influence over the lending process,a large proportion of loans extended by Chinese banks over the years have gone bad.Policymakers should prevent the flow of new non-performing loans by separating bad clients from banks that are being restructured and recapitalized in the reform of the banking sector.Originality/value-By employing the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI),the present paper contributes to

  18. Total flight hours, irritated and burning eye and risk of mild myopia in civilian pilots in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pritha Maya Savitri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Latar belakang: Miopia merupakan kelainan refraksi yang sering terjadi di antara penerbang. Penelitianini bertujuan mengidentifikasi beberapa faktor risiko dominan terhadap miopia ringan pada penerbang sipildi Indonesia.Metode: Subyek adalah penerbang sipil pria berusia 21-45 tahun yang dipilih secara purposif di antara yangsedang melaksanakan pemeriksaan kesehatan berkala di Balai Kesehatan Penerbangan Jakarta. Data tajampenglihatan dan gula darah didapatkan dari rekam medik. Miopia ringan adalah subyek dengan penurunantajam penglihatan dengan koreksi lensa -0,25 sampai dengan -0,30. Analisis data dengan regresi Coxmenggunakan Stata 10.Hasil: Persentase miopia ringan dalam penelitian ini sebesar 36%. Faktor risiko dominan terhadap myopiaringan adalah jam terbang total, riwayat orang tua myopia, dan gejala iritasi dan gatal mata. Subyekdengan dibandingkan dengan yang kurang dari 1000 jam terbang 28% lebih tinggi berisiko myopia ringan[risiko relatif suaian (RRa = 1,28; 95% interval kepercayaan (CI =1,00-1,64; P = 0,047]. Subyek dengandibandingkan ttanpa riwayat orang tua myopia 32% lebih tinggi berisiko myopia ringan (RRa = 5,32; 95%CI = 3,75-7,55; P = 0,000. Sedangkan subyek dengan dibandingkan tanpa gejala iritasi mata 48% lebihbesar berisiko miopia ringan RRa = 1,48; 95% CI = 1,19-1,85; P = 0,001. Subyek dengan dibandingkantanpa gejala iritasi mata 46% lebih berisiko miopia ringan (RRa = 0,46; 95% CI = 0,26-0,83; P = 0,009.Kesimpulan: Jam terbang total lebih dari 1000 jam, riwayat orang tua miopia, iritasi mata merupakanfaktor risiko dominan terhadap miopia ringan pada penerbang sipil di Indonesia. (Health Science Journalof Indonesia 2016;7:49-53Kata kunci: miopia ringan, penerbang sipil, jam terbang, Indonesia Background: Spatial orientation is the main problem to pilots that determined by visual, vestibuler andpropioseptif. This study aims to identify several dominant risk factors related to mild myopia in civilianpilots in Indonesia

  19. Numerical model of total artificial heart hemodynamics and the effect of its size on stress accumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marom, Gil; Chiu, Wei-Che; Slepian, Marvin J; Bluestein, Danny

    2014-01-01

    The total artificial heart (TAH) is a bi-ventricular mechanical circulatory support device that replaces the heart in patients with end-stage congestive heart failure. The device acts as blood pump via pneumatic activation of diaphragms altering the volume of the ventricular chambers. Flow in and out of the ventricles is controlled by mechanical heart valves. The aim of this study is to evaluate the flow regime in the TAH and to estimate the thrombogenic potential during systole. Toward that goal, three numerical models of TAHs of differing sizes, that include the deforming diaphragm and the blood flow from the left chamber to the aorta, are introduced. A multiphase model with injection of platelet particles is employed to calculate their trajectories. The shear stress accumulation in the three models are calculated along the platelets trajectories and their probability density functions, which represent the `thrombogenic footprint' of the device are compared. The calculated flow regime successfully captures the mitral regurgitation and the flows that open and close the aortic valve during systole. Physiological velocity magnitudes are found in all three models, with higher velocities and increased stress accumulation predicted for smaller devices.

  20. Can an arthroplasty risk score predict bundled care events after total joint arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blair S. Ashley, MD

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The validated Arthroplasty Risk Score (ARS predicts the need for postoperative triage to an intensive care setting. We hypothesized that the ARS may also predict hospital length of stay (LOS, discharge disposition, and episode-of-care cost (EOCC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed a series of 704 patients undergoing primary total hip and knee arthroplasty over 17 months. Patient characteristics, 90-day EOCC, LOS, and readmission rates were compared before and after ARS implementation. Results: ARS implementation was associated with fewer patients going to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility after discharge (63% vs 74%, P = .002. There was no difference in LOS, EOCC, readmission rates, or complications. While the adoption of the ARS did not change the mean EOCC, ARS >3 was predictive of high EOCC outlier (odds ratio 2.65, 95% confidence interval 1.40-5.01, P = .003. Increased ARS correlated with increased EOCC (P = .003. Conclusions: Implementation of the ARS was associated with increased disposition to home. It was predictive of high EOCC and should be considered in risk adjustment variables in alternative payment models. Keywords: Bundled payments, Risk stratification, Arthroplasty

  1. Comparison of Serum Concentrations of Total Cholesterol and Total ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most dangerous tropical diseases that complicates HIV infection in Nigeria to date. Over two million Nigerians are known to be infected with TB and many more are at risk of the infection. Serum concentrations of total cholesterol and total lipid of 117 female TB patients attending chest clinic at ...

  2. The carcinogenic risk of high dose total body irradiation in non-human primates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broerse, J.J.; Bartstra, R.W.; Bekkum, D.W. van; Hage, M.H. van der; Zurcher, C.; Zwieten, M.J. van; Hollander, C.F.

    2000-01-01

    High dose total body irradiation (TBI) in combination with chemotherapy, followed by rescue with bone marrow transplantation (BMT), is increasingly used for the treatment of haematological malignancies. With the increasing success of this treatment and its current introduction for treating refractory autoimmune diseases the risk of radiation carcinogenesis is of growing concern. Studies on turnout induction in non-human primates are of relevance in this context since the response of this species to radiation does not differ much from that in man. Since the early sixties, studies have been performed on acute effects in Rhesus monkeys and the protective action of bone marrow transplantation after irradiation with X-rays (average total body dose 6.8 Gy) and fission neutrons (average dose 3.4 Gy). Of those monkeys, which were irradiated and reconstituted with autologous bone marrow, 20 animals in the X-irradiated group and nine animals in the neutron group survived more than 3 years. A group of 21 non-irradiated Rhesus monkeys of a comparable age distribution served as controls. All animals were regularly screened for the occurrence of neoplasms. Complete necropsies were performed after natural death or euthanasia. At post-irradiation intervals of 4-21 years an appreciable number of tumours was observed. In the neutron irradiated group eight out of nine animals died with one or more malignant tumours. In the X-irradiated group this fraction was 10 out of 20. The tumours in the control group, in seven out of the 21 animals, appeared at much older a-e compared with those in the irradiated cohorts. The histogenesis of the tumours was diverse with a preponderance of renal carcinoma, sarcomas among which osteosarcormas, and malignant glomus tumours in the irradiated groups. When corrected for competing risks, the carcinogenic risk of TBI in the Rhesus monkeys is similar to that derived from the studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The increase of the risk by a

  3. Ten-Year Trends and Independent Risk Factors for Unplanned Readmission Following Elective Total Joint Arthroplasty at a Large Urban Academic Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varacallo, Matthew A; Herzog, Leah; Toossi, Nader; Johanson, Norman A

    2017-06-01

    Total joint arthroplasty procedures continue to provide consistent, long-term success and high patient satisfaction scores. However, early unplanned readmission to the hospital imparts significant financial risks to individual institutions as we shift away from the traditional fee-for-service payment model. Using a combination of our hospital's administrative database and retrospective chart reviews, we report the 30-day and 90-day readmission rates and all causes of readmission following all unilateral, primary elective total hip and knee arthroplasty procedures at a large, urban, academic hospital from 2004 to 2013. In total, 1165 primary total hip (511) and knee (654) arthroplasty procedures were identified, and the 30-day and 90-day unplanned readmission rates were 4.6% and 7.3%, respectively. A multivariate regression model controlled for a variety of potential clinical and surgical confounders. Increasing body mass index levels, an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of ≥3, and discharge to an inpatient rehab facility each independently correlated with risk of both 30-day and 90-day unplanned readmission to our institution. Additionally, use of general anesthesia during the procedure independently correlated with risk of readmission at 30 days only, while congestive heart failure independently correlated with risk of 90-day unplanned readmission. Readmissions related directly to the surgical site accounted for 47% of the cases, and collectively totaled more than any single medical or clinical complication leading to unplanned readmission within the 90-day period. Increasing body mass index values, general anesthesia, an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of ≥3, and discharge to an inpatient rehab facility each were independent risk factors for early unplanned readmission. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

    2008-01-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....

  5. Levels of plasma selenium and urinary total arsenic interact to affect the risk for prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsueh, Yu-Mei; Su, Chien-Tien; Shiue, Horng-Sheng; Chen, Wei-Jen; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Lin, Ying-Chin; Tsai, Cheng-Shiuan; Huang, Chao-Yuan

    2017-09-01

    This study investigated whether plasma selenium levels modified the risk for prostate cancer (PC) related to arsenic exposure. We conducted a case-control study that included 318 PC patients and 318 age-matched, healthy control subjects. Urinary arsenic profiles were examined using HPLC-HG-AAS and plasma selenium levels were measured by ICP-MS. We found that plasma selenium levels displayed a significant dose-dependent inverse association with PC. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for PC was 0.07 (0.04-0.13) among participants with a plasma selenium level >28.06 μg/dL vs. ≤19.13 μg/dL. A multivariate analysis showed that participants with a urinary total arsenic concentration >29.28 μg/L had a significantly higher OR (1.75, 1.06-2.89) for PC than participants with ≤29.89 μg/L. The combined presence of a low plasma selenium level and a high urinary total arsenic concentration exponentially increased the OR for PC, and additively interacted with PSA at levels ≥20 ng/mL. This is the first epidemiological study to examine the combined effects of plasma selenium and urinary total arsenic levels on the OR for PC. Our data suggest a low plasma selenium level coupled with a high urinary total arsenic concentration creates a significant risk for aggressive PC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Numerical simulation investigation on centrifugal compressor performance of turbocharger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Jie; Yin, Yuting; Li, Shuqi; Zhang, Jizhong

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, the mathematical model of the flow filed in centrifugal compressor of turbocharger was studied. Based on the theory of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), performance curves and parameter distributions of the compressor were obtained from the 3-D numerical simulation by using CFX. Meanwhile, the influences of grid number and distribution on compressor performance were investigated, and numerical calculation method was analyzed and validated, through combining with test data. The results obtained show the increase of the grid number has little influence on compressor performance while the grid number of single-passage is above 300,000. The results also show that the numerical calculation mass flow rate of compressor choke situation has a good consistent with test results, and the maximum difference of the diffuser exit pressure between simulation and experiment decrease to 3.5% with the assumption of 6 kPa additional total pressure loss at compressor inlet. The numerical simulation method in this paper can be used to predict compressor performance, and the difference of total pressure ratio between calculation and test is less than 7%, and the total-to-total efficiency also have a good consistent with test.

  7. Numerical simulation investigation on centrifugal compressor performance of turbocharger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jie [China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group, Beijing (China); Yin, Yuting [China North Engine Research Institute, Datong (China); Li, Shuqi; Zhang, Jizhong [Science and Technology Diesel Engine Turbocharging Laboratory, Datong (China)

    2013-06-15

    In this paper, the mathematical model of the flow filed in centrifugal compressor of turbocharger was studied. Based on the theory of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), performance curves and parameter distributions of the compressor were obtained from the 3-D numerical simulation by using CFX. Meanwhile, the influences of grid number and distribution on compressor performance were investigated, and numerical calculation method was analyzed and validated, through combining with test data. The results obtained show the increase of the grid number has little influence on compressor performance while the grid number of single-passage is above 300,000. The results also show that the numerical calculation mass flow rate of compressor choke situation has a good consistent with test results, and the maximum difference of the diffuser exit pressure between simulation and experiment decrease to 3.5% with the assumption of 6 kPa additional total pressure loss at compressor inlet. The numerical simulation method in this paper can be used to predict compressor performance, and the difference of total pressure ratio between calculation and test is less than 7%, and the total-to-total efficiency also have a good consistent with test.

  8. Use of BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 in radiation risk assessment: Lifetime total cancer mortality risk estimates at low doses and low dose rates for low-LET radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-12-01

    In November 1986, the Department of Defense (DoD) asked the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination (CIRRPC) to develop a coordinated Federal position on risk assessment for low levels of ionizing radiation. Since Federal risk assessment activities are based primarily on the scientific data and analyses in authoritative review documents prepared by groups like the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) and the United Nations' Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), DoD proposed that the CIRRPC Science Panel undertake the task of providing coordinated interagency positions on the use of information in the reports of such groups. The practice has been for individual Federal agencies to interpret and decide independently how to use the information provided in such reports. As a result of its deliberations, the Subpanel recommends two nominal risk estimates for lifetime total cancer mortality following whole-body exposure to low levels of low-LET ionizing radiation, one for the general population and one for the working-age population (see Section II). The recommended risk estimates reflect the general agreement of information in BEIR V and UNSCEAR 1988 for total cancer mortality. The Subpanel's risk estimates and associated statements are intended to meet the needs of the Federal agencies for: (a) values that are current; (b) values that are relevant to the low-dose and low dose-rate ionizing radiation exposures principally encountered in carrying out Federal responsibilities; (c) a statement of the change in the estimates of lifetime total cancer mortality relative to estimates in previous authoritative review documents; and (d) a practical statement on the scientific uncertainty associated with applying the lifetime total cancer mortality values at very low doses

  9. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy De Backer

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%. Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk.

  10. Effect of Antihypertensive Therapy on SCORE-Estimated Total Cardiovascular Risk: Results from an Open-Label, Multinational Investigation—The POWER Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Backer, Guy; Petrella, Robert J.; Goudev, Assen R.; Radaideh, Ghazi Ahmad; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; Pathak, Atul

    2013-01-01

    Background. High blood pressure is a substantial risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Design & Methods. The Physicians' Observational Work on patient Education according to their vascular Risk (POWER) survey was an open-label investigation of eprosartan-based therapy (EBT) for control of high blood pressure in primary care centers in 16 countries. A prespecified element of this research was appraisal of the impact of EBT on estimated 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular event as determined by the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model. Results. SCORE estimates of CVD risk were obtained at baseline from 12,718 patients in 15 countries (6504 men) and from 9577 patients at 6 months. During EBT mean (±SD) systolic/diastolic blood pressures declined from 160.2 ± 13.7/94.1 ± 9.1 mmHg to 134.5 ± 11.2/81.4 ± 7.4 mmHg. This was accompanied by a 38% reduction in mean SCORE-estimated CVD risk and an improvement in SCORE risk classification of one category or more in 3506 patients (36.6%). Conclusion. Experience in POWER affirms that (a) effective pharmacological control of blood pressure is feasible in the primary care setting and is accompanied by a reduction in total CVD risk and (b) the SCORE instrument is effective in this setting for the monitoring of total CVD risk. PMID:23997946

  11. Risk and Cost of 90-Day Complications in Morbidly and Superobese Patients After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meller, Menachem M; Toossi, Nader; Johanson, Norman A; Gonzalez, Mark H; Son, Min-Sun; Lau, Edmund C

    2016-10-01

    This study investigated the risk and cost of postoperative complications associated with morbid and super obesity after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients who underwent TKA using Medicare hospital claims data. The International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code V85.4x was used to identify morbidly obese patients (body mass index [BMI] ≥40 kg/m(2)) and superobese patients (BMI ≥50 kg/m(2)) in 2011-2013. Patients without any BMI-related diagnosis codes were used as controls. Twelve complications occurred in the 90-day period after TKA were analyzed using multivariate Cox models, adjusting for patient demographic, morbidity, and institutional factors. In addition, hospital charges and payments were compared from primary surgery through subsequent 90 days. Morbidly obese patients showed a significantly elevated risk in most complications examined, with a 2-fold or higher risk in dislocation and wound dehiscence. In addition, death, periprosthetic joint infection, acute renal failure, and knee revision had significant hazard ratios between 1.5 and 2.0. However, risk of deep vein thrombosis and acute myocardial infarction did not increase for the morbidly obese patients. Superobese patients had significant increase in risk of infection, wound dehiscence, acute renal failures, revisions, death, and readmission compared with patients with BMI 40-49 kg/m(2). Significant dose-response trend was found between the level of BMI and risk for death, dislocation, implant failure, infection, readmission, revision, wound dehiscence, and acute renal failure. Controlling for patient and institutional factors, each TKA had an average total hospital charges of $75,884 among superobese patients, compared to $65,118 for the control group, a difference of $10,767. Medicare payment for the superobese patients was also higher, but only by $2703. Morbidly obese patients pose a significantly

  12. Numerical analysis of the biomechanical complications accompanying the total hip replacement with NANOS-Prosthetic: bone remodelling and prosthesis migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almohallami A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aseptic loosening of the prosthesis is still a problem in artificial joint implants. The ýloosening can be caused by the resorption of the bone surrounding ýthe prosthesis according to stress shielding. A numerical model was developed and validated by means of DEXA-studies in order to ýanalyse the bone remodelling process in the periprosthetic bone. A total loss of about 3.7% of the bone density in the periprosthetic Femur with NANOS is computed. The bone remodelling calculation was validated by means of a DEXA-study with a 3-years-follow-up. The model was further developed in order to be able to calculate and consider the migration of the implants. This method was applied on the ýNANOS-implant with a computed total migration of about 0.43 mm. These calculations showed good results in comparison with a 2-year-follow-up clinical study, whereby a RSA-method was used to determine the stem migration in the bone. In order to ýstudy the mutual influence between the implant migration and the hip contact forces ý, a software is developed by our scientific group to couple a multi body simulation (MBS of human lower limps with the FEA of the periprosthetic Femur.

  13. Total petroleum hydrocarbons: Characterization of physico-chemical behaviour and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gemoets, J.; Lookman, R.; Vanermen, G.; Houtven, D. van; Bertels, D.; Weltens, R.; Cornelis, C. [VITO, Mol (Belgium); Vries, P. de; Sterren, G. van der; Alphenaar, A. [TTE, Deventer (Netherlands)

    2003-07-01

    Several methods are available for the characterization of petroleum hydrocarbons. Recently, the TPHCWG (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group) developed a method based upon a silica column separation of aromatics and aliphatics and a GC-FID subdivision into equivalent-carbon fractions (EC) ('TPH-method'). Within NOBIS (Dutch Research program Biological I-situ Remediation), another method was developed based upon an equilibrium-experiment of the oil-polluted soil with water (column recirculation), which was further developed by TTE ('TTE-method'). This method uses measured water solubilities of individual oil components and GC-retention times yielding a subdivision of the hydrocarbons into compound classes. The present study aims at a verification (reproducibility; accuracy) and optimization of both methods and a critical review on the relevance of the proposed fractions for the prediction of human health risks. Two 'umpire' methods were selected for reference: GS-MS in full scan mode and liquid state NMR. (orig.)

  14. Total and HDL cholesterol and risk of stroke. EUROSTROKE: a collaborative study among research centres in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.L. Bots (Michiel); D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); P.C. Elwood; Y. Nikitin; J.T. Salonen; A. Freire de Concalves; D. Inzitari; J. Sivenius; V. Benetou (Vassiliki); J. Tuomilehto; P.J. Koudstaal (Peter Jan)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: Controversy remains on the relation between serum lipids levels and stroke risk. This paper investigated the association of total and HDL cholesterol level to fatal and non-fatal, and haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke in four European cohorts participating

  15. Risk factors for periprosthetic joint infection following primary total hip or knee arthroplasty: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Lingde; Cao, Junming; Zhang, Yingze; Ding, Wenyuan; Shen, Yong

    2017-06-01

    To identify risk factors for periprosthetic joint infection following primary total joint arthroplasty, a systematic search was performed in Pubmed, Embase and Cochrane library databases. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) or standardised mean differences (SMDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Patient characteristics, surgical-related factors and comorbidities, as potential risk factors, were investigated. The main factors associated with infection after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) were male gender (OR, 1·48; 95% CI, 1.19-1.85), age (SMD, -0·10; 95% CI, -0.17--0.03), obesity (OR, 1·54; 95% CI, 1·25-1·90), alcohol abuse (OR, 1·88; 95% CI, 1·32-2·68), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scale > 2 (OR, 2·06; 95% CI, 1·77-2·39), operative time (SMD, 0·49; 95% CI, 0·19-0·78), drain usage (OR, 0·36; 95% CI, 0·18-0·74), diabetes mellitus (OR, 1·58; 95% CI, 1·37-1·81), urinary tract infection (OR, 1·53; 95% CI, 1.09-2.16) and rheumatoid arthritis (OR, 1·57; 95% CI, 1·30-1·88). Among these risk factors, ASA score > 2 was a high risk factor, and drain usage was a protective factor. There was positive evidence for some factors that could be used to prevent the onset of infection after TJA. © 2016 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D

    2017-07-01

    Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. The Ohio River Valley CO2 Storage Project AEP Mountaineer Plant, West Virginia Numerical Simulation and Risk Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neeraj Gupta

    2008-03-31

    A series of numerical simulations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) injection were conducted as part of a program to assess the potential for geologic sequestration in deep geologic reservoirs (the Rose Run and Copper Ridge formations), at the American Electric Power (AEP) Mountaineer Power Plant outside of New Haven, West Virginia. The simulations were executed using the H{sub 2}O-CO{sub 2}-NaCl operational mode of the Subsurface Transport Over Multiple Phases (STOMP) simulator (White and Oostrom, 2006). The objective of the Rose Run formation modeling was to predict CO{sub 2} injection rates using data from the core analysis conducted on the samples. A systematic screening procedure was applied to the Ohio River Valley CO{sub 2} storage site utilizing the Features, Elements, and Processes (FEP) database for geological storage of CO{sub 2} (Savage et al., 2004). The objective of the screening was to identify potential risk categories for the long-term geological storage of CO{sub 2} at the Mountaineer Power Plant in New Haven, West Virginia. Over 130 FEPs in seven main classes were assessed for the project based on site characterization information gathered in a geological background study, testing in a deep well drilled on the site, and general site conditions. In evaluating the database, it was apparent that many of the items were not applicable to the Mountaineer site based its geologic framework and environmental setting. Nine FEPs were identified for further consideration for the site. These FEPs generally fell into categories related to variations in subsurface geology, well completion materials, and the behavior of CO{sub 2} in the subsurface. Results from the screening were used to provide guidance on injection system design, developing a monitoring program, performing reservoir simulations, and other risk assessment efforts. Initial work indicates that the significant FEPs may be accounted for by focusing the storage program on these potential issues. The

  18. Portfolio balancing and risk adjusted values under constrained budget conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, J.A.; Lerche, I.

    1996-01-01

    For a given hydrocarbon exploration opportunity, the influences of value, cost, success probability and corporate risk tolerance provide an optimal working interest that should be taken in the opportunity in order to maximize the risk adjusted value. When several opportunities are available, but when the total budget is insufficient to take optimal working interest in each, an analytic procedure is given for optimizing the risk adjusted value of the total portfolio; the relevant working interests are also derived based on a cost exposure constraint. Several numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit the use of the method under different budget conditions, and with different numbers of available opportunities. When value, cost, success probability, and risk tolerance are uncertain for each and every opportunity, the procedure is generalized to allow determination of probable optimal risk adjusted value for the total portfolio and, at the same time, the range of probable working interest that should be taken in each opportunity is also provided. The result is that the computations of portfolio balancing can be done quickly in either deterministic or probabilistic manners on a small calculator, thereby providing rapid assessments of opportunities and their worth to a corporation. (Author)

  19. Total, Dietary, and Supplemental Vitamin C Intake and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Curhan, Gary C; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N

    2016-03-01

    Previous studies of vitamin C and kidney stones were conducted mostly in men and either reported disparate results for supplemental and dietary vitamin C or did not examine dietary vitamin C. Prospective cohort analysis. 156,735 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) I and II and 40,536 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Total, dietary, and supplemental vitamin C intake, adjusted for age, body mass index, thiazide use, and dietary factors. Incident kidney stones. During a median follow-up of 11.3 to 11.7 years, 6,245 incident kidney stones were identified. After multivariable adjustment, total vitamin C intake (vitamin C intake for the 500- to 999-mg/d category was ∼700mg/d. Supplemental vitamin C intake (no use [reference], vitamin C intake was not associated with stones among men or women, although few participants had dietary intakes > 700mg/d. Nutrient intakes derived from food-frequency questionnaires, lack of data on stone composition for all cases. Total and supplemental vitamin C intake was significantly associated with higher risk for incident kidney stones in men, but not in women. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Cross-sectional associations of total sitting and leisure screen time with cardiometabolic risk in adults. Results from the HUNT Study, Norway

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chau, J.Y.; Grunseit, A.; Midthjell, K.; Holmen, J.; Holmen, T.L.; Bauman, A.E.; van der Ploeg, H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To examine associations of total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use with cardiometabolic risk biomarkers in adults. Design: Population based cross-sectional study. Methods: Waist circumference, BMI, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, non-fasting

  1. Risk of colorectal cancer in relation to frequency and total amount of red meat consumption. Systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolińska, Katarzyna; Paluszkiewicz, Piotr

    2010-08-30

    The colon and rectum are common sites of food-related cancer in developed countries. Recent studies strongly suggest that red meat intake is associated with colon cancer, whereas for rectal cancer such an association still needs to be proved. The aim of the study was to assess the role of total amount and frequency of red meat intake in colorectal carcinogenesis based on published data using meta-analysis methods. The literature published until 2009 was selected from: MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, CancerLit, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library databases. The used search terms were: colorectal cancer, colon cancer, rectal cancer, meat intake, red meat intake, red meat consumption, meat consumption, colorectal cancer risk, colon cancer risk, rectal cancer risk and lifestyle. Articles investigating red meat intake of more often than once a day or 50 g per day were reviewed and selected for further analysis. Twenty-two studies fulfilled the established criteria. A meta-analysis confirmed the carcinogenic effect of the consumption of over 50 g of red meat per day for the colon (relative risk 1.21, 1.07-1.37) but not for the rectum (relative risk 1.30, 0.90-1.89). Red meat intake more frequently than once a day can induce both colonic (relative risk 1.37, 1.09-1.71) and rectal cancer (relative risk 1.43, 1.24-1.64). Red meat intake is associated with elevated risk of developing colorectal cancer. The frequency of red meat consumption rather than total amount of consumed meat is associated with a higher risk of colorectal carcinogenesis.

  2. Tea consumption and risk of cardiovascular outcomes and total mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Qin, Ying-Yi; Wei, Xin; Yu, Fei-Fei; Zhou, Yu-Hao; He, Jia

    2015-01-01

    Studies that investigated the association between tea consumption and the risk of major cardiovascular events have reported inconsistent results. We conducted a meta-analysis of prospective observational studies in order to summarize the evidence regarding the association between tea consumption and major cardiovascular outcomes or total mortality. In July 2014, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library, followed by manual searches of reference lists from the resulting articles to identify other relevant studies. Prospective observational studies that reported effect estimates, with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs), for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, cardiac death, stroke death, or total mortality for more than two dosages of tea consumption were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to determine the risk of major cardiovascular outcomes associated with an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day. Of the 736 citations identified from database searches, we included 22 prospective studies from 24 articles reporting data on 856,206 individuals, and including 8,459 cases of CHD, 10,572 of stroke, 5,798 cardiac deaths, 2,350 stroke deaths, and 13,722 total deaths. Overall, an increase in tea consumption by 3 cups per day was associated with a reduced risk of CHD (relative risk [RR], 0.73; 95 % CI: 0.53–0.99; P = 0.045), cardiac death (RR, 0.74; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.86; P < 0.001), stroke (RR, 0.82; 95 % CI: 0.73–0.92; P = 0.001), total mortality (RR, 0.76; 95 % CI: 0.63–0.91; P = 0.003), cerebral infarction (RR, 0.84; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.98; P = 0.023), and intracerebral hemorrhage (RR, 0.79; 95 % CI: 0.72–0.87; P < 0.001), but had little or no effect on stroke mortality (RR, 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.83–1.05; P = 0.260). The findings from this meta-analysis indicate that increased tea consumption is associated with a reduced risk of CHD, cardiac death, stroke, cerebral infarction, and

  3. Risk factors and clinical course of hungry bone syndrome after total parathyroidectomy in dialysis patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Lo-Yi; Wong, Ping-Nam; Sin, Ho-Kwan; Wong, Yuk-Yi; Lo, Kwok-Chi; Chan, Shuk-Fan; Lo, Man-Wai; Lo, Kin-Yee; Mak, Siu-Ka; Wong, Andrew Kui-Man

    2017-01-10

    Hungry bone syndrome (HBS) is an important postoperative complication after parathyroidectomy for severe secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT). There is, however, little data in the literature on its detailed clinical course, and the associated risk factors remain controversial. We did a single-center retrospective study on 62 consecutive dialysis patients who underwent total parathyroidectomy for SHPT to examine the risk factors, clinical course and outcome. Data on demographic characteristics, perioperative laboratory parameters including serum calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and parathyroid hormone (PTH), drug treatment for SHPT and operative details of parathyroidectomy were collected. Seventeen (27.4%) patients developed severe postoperative hypocalcemia with HBS. The serum calcium dropped progressively while serum ALP rose after operation until 2 weeks later when serum calcium reached the trough and serum ALP peaked. Serum phosphate also fell but stabilized between 4 and 14 days. The total postoperative calcium and vitamin D supplementation was significantly larger, and hospital stay was significantly longer in the group with HBS as compared with those without HBS. Young age, high body weight, high preoperative ALP level, and low preoperative calcium level independently predicted the development of HBS while preoperative PTH and use of cinacalcet or paricalcitol did not. HBS was common after total parathyroidectomy in patients with SHPT, and it is important to closely monitor the postoperative serum calcium, phosphate and ALP levels in the following 2 weeks, especially for those at risk. The implications of our findings on perioperative management are discussed.

  4. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  5. Total Mercury in Squalid Callista Megapitaria squalida from the SW Gulf of California, Mexico: Tissue Distribution and Human Health Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romo-Piñera, Abril K; Escobar-Sánchez, Ofelia; Ruelas-Inzunza, Jorge; Frías-Espericueta, Martín G

    2018-03-01

    We evaluated the total Hg concentration in different tissues of squalid callista Megapitaria squalida in order to measure Hg distribution in tissue and to estimate human health risk. Samples were obtained by free diving in the SW Gulf of California, Mexico. Concentrations are given on a wet weight basis. A total of 89 squalid callista specimens were obtained, presenting an average Hg concentration of 0.07 ± 0.04 µg g -1 . There were no significant differences (p > 0.05) in Hg concentration between tissues (visceral mass = 0.09 ± 0.08 µg g -1 ; mantle = 0.06 ± 0.07 µg g -1 ; muscle = 0.06 ± 0.04 µg g -1 ). The low Hg values found in squalid callista and its low risk quotient (HQ = 0.03) suggest that the consumption of squalid callista does not represent a human health risk. However, HQ calculated using MeHg was > 1, it which could indicate a potential risk related to consumption of clams.

  6. Acyl/free carnitine ratio is a risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatoduodenectomy and total pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Masafumi; Nakata, Kohei; Matsumoto, Hideo; Ohtsuka, Takao; Yoshida, Koji; Tokunaga, Shoji; Hino, Keisuke

    Hepatic steatosis, one of the most frequent long-term complications of pancreatectomy, influences not only hepatic function but also survival rate. However, its risk factors and pathogenesis have not been established. The purpose of this study was to clarify the risk factors for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. In this retrospective study of 21 patients who had undergone pancreatectomy (19 cases of pancreatoduodenectomy and 2 cases of total pancreatectomy), serum carnitine concentrations, fractions of carnitine, and hepatic attenuation on computed tomography images were analyzed with the aim of identifying risk factors for hepatic steatosis. Thirteen (61.9%) of the 21 patients were diagnosed as having hypocarnitinemia after pancreatectomy. Average hepatic attenuation was as low as 42.2HU (±21.3 SD). A high ratio of acyl/free carnitine was associated with less pronounced hepatic attenuation according to both univariate (P pancreatectomy in some patients. The statistical analyses suggest that a high ratio of acyl/free carnitine is an independent risk factor for hepatic steatosis after pancreatectomy. Copyright © 2016 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Foundations of children's numerical and mathematical skills: the roles of symbolic and nonsymbolic representations of numerical magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Ian M; Ansari, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Numerical and mathematical skills are critical predictors of academic success. The last three decades have seen a substantial growth in our understanding of how the human mind and brain represent and process numbers. In particular, research has shown that we share with animals the ability to represent numerical magnitude (the total number of items in a set) and that preverbal infants can process numerical magnitude. Further research has shown that similar processing signatures characterize numerical magnitude processing across species and developmental time. These findings suggest that an approximate system for nonsymbolic (e.g., dot arrays) numerical magnitude representation serves as the basis for the acquisition of cultural, symbolic (e.g., Arabic numerals) representations of numerical magnitude. This chapter explores this hypothesis by reviewing studies that have examined the relation between individual differences in nonsymbolic numerical magnitude processing and symbolic math abilities (e.g., arithmetic). Furthermore, we examine the extent to which the available literature provides strong evidence for a link between symbolic and nonsymbolic representations of numerical magnitude at the behavioral and neural levels of analysis. We conclude that claims that symbolic number abilities are grounded in the approximate system for the nonsymbolic representation of numerical magnitude are not strongly supported by the available evidence. Alternative models and future research directions are discussed. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

  9. Thinking through cancer risk: characterizing smokers' process of risk determination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Jennifer; Shuk, Elyse; Cruz, Gustavo; Ostroff, Jamie

    2005-10-01

    The perception of cancer risk motivates cancer risk reduction behaviors. However, common measurement strategies for cancer risk perceptions, which involve numerical likelihood estimates, do not adequately capture individuals' thoughts and feelings about cancer risk. To guide the development of novel measurement strategies, the authors used semistructured interviews to examine the thought processes used by smokers (N = 15) as they considered their cancer risk. They used grounded theory to guide systematic data coding and develop a heuristic model describing smokers' risk perception process that includes a cognitive, primarily rational process whereby salient personal risk factors for cancer are considered and combined, and an affective/attitudinal process, which shifts risk perceptions either up or down. The model provides a tentative explanation concerning how people hold cancer risk perceptions that diverge from rational assessment of their risks and will be useful in guiding the development of non-numerical measurements strategies for cancer risk perceptions.

  10. The relationship between total testosterone levels and prostate cancer: a review of the continuing controversy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klap, Julia; Schmid, Marianne; Loughlin, Kevin R

    2015-02-01

    For many years it was believed that higher total testosterone contributed to prostate cancer and caused rapid cancer growth. International guidelines consider that adequate data are not available to determine whether there is additional risk of prostate cancer from testosterone replacement. Numerous studies with multiple designs and contradictory conclusions have investigated the relationship between total testosterone and prostate cancer development. To establish current knowledge in this field we reviewed the literature on total testosterone and the subsequent risk of prostate cancer as well as the safety of exogenous testosterone administration in patients with a history of prostate cancer. We searched the literature to identify articles from 1994 to 2014 related to the relationship between total testosterone and prostate cancer. Emphasis was given to prospective studies, series with observational data and randomized, controlled trials. Case reports were excluded. Articles on testosterone replacement safety were selected by patient population (under active surveillance or with a prostate cancer history). We organized our results according to the relationship between total testosterone and prostate cancer, including 1) the possible link between low total testosterone and prostate cancer, 2) the effect of high levels and 3) the absence of any link. Finally, we summarized studies of the risk of exogenous testosterone administration in patients already diagnosed with prostate cancer, treated or on active surveillance. We selected 45 articles of the relationship between total testosterone and prostate cancer, of which 18 and 17 showed a relationship to low and high total testosterone, respectively, and 10 showed no relation. Total testosterone was defined according to the definition in each article. Contradictory findings have been reported, largely due to the disparate methodologies used in many studies. Most studies did not adhere to professional society guidelines

  11. Risk of pneumonia and urinary tract infection within the first week after total hip arthroplasty and the impact on survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glassou EN

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Eva N Glassou,1,2 Torben B Hansen,1,3 Alma B Pedersen2 1University Clinic of Hand, Hip and Knee Surgery, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Regional Hospital West Jutland, Aarhus University, 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, 3The Lundbeck Foundation Centre for Fast-track Hip and Knee Replacement, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Background: Pneumonia and urinary tract infections (UTIs increase morbidity and mortality. There is little epidemiological evidence from large population-based studies on risk factors for these infections and subsequent mortality in total hip arthroplasty (THA patients.Aim: To examine the risk factors of postoperative pneumonia and UTI after THA and their impact on survival.Patients and methods: We used the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Register to identify THAs due to osteoarthritis registered from 2000 to 2013. We collected data about comorbidities, mortality and infections in relation to primary hospitalization and potential predictive variables from administrative databases. Regression models were used to estimate associations between potential risk factors and infection, and subsequently, between infection and mortality.Results: In total 84,812 THAs were included. The cumulative incidence of pneumonia and UTI within 7 days of the primary procedure were 0.21 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.18–0.25 and 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26–0.33, respectively. Patient-related risk factors for infection were being 80 years or older, gender and a comorbidity burden at time of surgery. The hazard ratio (HR of dying within 90 days of the primary THA was 10.67 (95% CI: 5.79–19.57 compared to patients without pneumonia. For patients with UTIs, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI: 0.41–6.59 compared to those without a UTI.Conclusion: Pneumonia was associated with an increased short-term risk of dying, despite adjustment for coexisting comorbidity and other potential confounders. Age, gender and comorbidity were the most

  12. Reinforced concrete structures loaded by snow avalanches : numerical and experimental approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ousset, I.; Bertrand, D.; Brun, M.; Limam, A.; Naaim, M.

    2012-04-01

    Today, due to the extension of occupied areas in mountainous regions, new strategies for risk mitigation have to be developed. In the framework of risk analysis, these latter have to take into account not only the natural hazard description but also the physical vulnerability of the exposed structures. From a civil engineering point of view, the dynamic behavior of column or portico was widely investigated especially in the case of reinforced concrete and steel. However, it is not the case of reinforced concrete walls for which only the in-plan dynamic behavior (shear behavior) has been studied in detail in the field of earthquake engineering. Therefore, the aim of this project is to study the behavior of reinforced concrete civil engineering structures submitted to out-of-plan dynamic loadings coming from snow avalanche interaction. Numerical simulations in 2D or 3D by the finite element method (FEM) are presented. The approach allows solving mechanical problems in dynamic condition involving none linearities (especially none linear materials). Thus, the structure mechanical response can be explored in controlled conditions. First, a reinforced concrete wall with a L-like shape is considered. The structure is supposed to represent a French defense structure dedicated to protect people against snow avalanches. Experimental pushover tests have been performed on a physical model. The experimental tests consisted to apply a uniform distribution of pressure until the total collapse of the wall. A 2D numerical model has been developed to simulate the mechanical response of the structure under quasi-static loading. Numerical simulations have been compared to experimental datas and results gave a better understanding of the failure mode of the wall. Moreover, the influence of several parameters (geometry and the mechanical properties) is also presented. Secondly, punching shear experimental tests have also been carried out. Reinforced concrete slabs simply supported have

  13. A novel numerical approach for workspace determination of parallel mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Yiqun; Niu, Junchuan; Liu, Zhihui; Zhang, Fuliang [Shandong University, Shandong (China)

    2017-06-15

    In this paper, a novel numerical approach is proposed for workspace determination of parallel mechanisms. Compared with the classical numerical approaches, this presented approach discretizes both location and orientation of the mechanism simultaneously, not only one of the two. This technique makes the presented numerical approach applicable in determining almost all types of workspaces, while traditional numerical approaches are only applicable in determining the constant orientation workspace and orientation workspace. The presented approach and its steps to determine the inclusive orientation workspace and total orientation workspace are described in detail. A lower-mobility parallel mechanism and a six-degrees-of-freedom Stewart platform are set as examples, the workspaces of these mechanisms are estimated and visualized by the proposed numerical approach. Furthermore, the efficiency of the presented approach is discussed. The examples show that the presented approach is applicable in determining the inclusive orientation workspace and total orientation workspace of parallel mechanisms with high efficiency.

  14. Acetabular cup position and risk of dislocation in primary total hip arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seagrave, Kurt G; Troelsen, Anders; Malchau, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose - Hip dislocation is one of the most common complications following total hip arthroplasty (THA). Several factors that affect dislocation have been identified, including acetabular cup positioning. Optimal values for cup inclination and anteversion are debatable. We performed...... a systematic review to describe the different methods for measuring cup placement, target zones for cup positioning, and the association between cup positioning and dislocation following primary THA. Methods - A systematic search of literature in the PubMed database was performed (January and February 2016......) to identify articles that compared acetabular cup positioning and the risk of dislocation. Surgical approach and methods for measurement of cup angles were also considered. Results - 28 articles were determined to be relevant to our research question. Some articles demonstrated that cup positioning influenced...

  15. Severe Pulmonary Toxicity After Myeloablative Conditioning Using Total Body Irradiation: An Assessment of Risk Factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelsey, Chris R.; Horwitz, Mitchell E.; Chino, Junzo P.; Craciunescu, Oana; Steffey, Beverly; Folz, Rodney J.; Chao, Nelson J.; Rizzieri, David A.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To assess factors associated with severe pulmonary toxicity after myeloablative conditioning using total body irradiation (TBI) followed by allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Methods and Materials: A total of 101 adult patients who underwent TBI-based myeloablative conditioning for hematologic malignancies at Duke University between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. TBI was combined with high-dose cyclophosphamide, melphalan, fludarabine, or etoposide, depending on the underlying disease. Acute pulmonary toxicity, occurring within 90 days of transplantation, was scored using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Actuarial overall survival and the cumulative incidence of acute pulmonary toxicity were calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a log-rank test. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess factors independently associated with acute severe pulmonary toxicity. Results: The 90-day actuarial risk of developing severe (Grade 3-5) pulmonary toxicity was 33%. Actuarial survival at 90 days was 49% in patients with severe pulmonary toxicity vs. 94% in patients without (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the number of prior chemotherapy regimens was the only factor independently associated with development of severe pulmonary toxicity (odds ratio, 2.7 per regimen). Conclusions: Severe acute pulmonary toxicity is prevalent after TBI-based myeloablative conditioning regimens, occurring in approximately 33% of patients. The number of prior chemotherapy regimens appears to be an important risk factor.

  16. Risk factors for post-operative periprosthetic fractures following primary total hip arthroplasty with a proximally coated double-tapered cementless femoral component

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gromov, K; Bersang, A; Nielsen, C S

    2017-01-01

    ratio were recorded post-operatively. Periprosthetic fractures were identified and classified according to the Vancouver classification. Regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for early periprosthetic fracture. RESULTS: The mean follow-up was 713 days (1 to 2058). A total of 48......AIMS: The aim of this study was to identify patient- and surgery-related risk factors for sustaining an early periprosthetic fracture following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) performed using a double-tapered cementless femoral component (Bi-Metric femoral stem; Biomet Inc., Warsaw, Indiana...... periprosthetic fractures (3.0%) were identified during the follow-up and median time until fracture was 16 days, (interquartile range 10 to 31.5). Patients with femoral Dorr type C had a 5.2 times increased risk of post-operative periprosthetic fracture compared with type B, while female patients had a near...

  17. Risk factors for early complications after laparoscopic total mesorectal excision for locally advanced rectal cancer: A single center experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liye Liu

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions: Aged patients, large tumor, lower tumor location and conversion were risk factors in performing laparoscopic TME for locally advanced rectal cancer. Patients with these characteristics should be carefully considered before undergoing laparoscopic total mesorectal excision.

  18. Red meat and poultry intakes and risk of total and cause-specific mortality: results from cohort studies of Chinese adults in Shanghai.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yumie Takata

    Full Text Available Most previous studies of meat intake and total or cause-specific mortality were conducted in North America, whereas studies in other areas have been limited and reported inconsistent results. This study investigated the association of red meat or poultry intake with risk of total and cause-specific mortality, including cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD, in two large population-based prospective cohort studies of 134,290 Chinese adult women and men in Shanghai. Meat intakes were assessed through validated food frequency questionnaires administered in person at baseline. Vital status and dates and causes of deaths were ascertained through annual linkage to the Shanghai Vital Statistics Registry and Shanghai Cancer Registry databases and home visits every 2-3 years. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs for the risk of death associated with quintiles of meat intake. During 803,265 person-years of follow up for women and 334,281 person-years of follow up for men, a total of 4,210 deaths in women and 2,733 deaths in men accrued. The median intakes of red meat were 43 g/day among women and 54 g/day among men, and pork constituted at least 95% of total meat intake for both women and men. Red meat intake was associated with increased total mortality among men, but not among women; the HR (95% CI comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles were 1.18 (1.02-1.35 and 0.92 (0.82-1.03, respectively. This sex difference was statistically significant (P = 0.01. Red meat intake was associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality (HR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.05-1.89 and with decreased risk of hemorrhagic stroke mortality (HR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.45-0.87. There were suggestive inverse associations of poultry intake with risk of total and all-CVD mortality among men, but not among women. Further investigations are needed to elucidate the sex-specific associations between red

  19. Validation of the total dysphagia risk score (TDRS) in head and neck cancer patients in a conventional and a partially accelerated radiotherapy scheme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nevens, Daan; Deschuymer, Sarah; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Daisne, Jean -Francois; Duprez, Frederic; De Neve, Wilfried; Nuyts, Sandra

    Background and purpose: A risk model, the total dysphagia risk score (TDRS), was developed to predict which patients are most at risk to develop grade >= 2 dysphagia at 6 months following radiotherapy (RT) for head and neck cancer. The purpose of this study was to validate this model at 6 months and

  20. Total Dietary Fiber, and Selected Vegetable, Fruit, Legume and Cereal Fiber Intake and Risk of Heart Attack in Periodontitis Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Wood

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Epidemiological studies have found an association between periodontal disease and coronary artery disease(Arbes, Slade et al. 1999; Beck, Elter et al. 2001; Genco, Offenbacher et al. 2002, and have even implicated periodontal disease as a risk factor(Arbes, Slade et al. 1999; Beck, Elter et al. 2001, however have not proven causality(Hujoel, Drangholt et al. 2000. Although dietary amounts, sources, and types (soluble versus insoluble of fiber have been shown to reduce the risk of heart attack (Liu, Buring et al. 2002; Negri, Vecchia et al. 2003, this author is unaware of studies that have examined the association between food sources of dietary fiber and heart attack risk in subjects with periodontitis.This study was designed to determine whether total dietary fiber and fiber from different plant sources (vegetables, fruits, legumes, or cereals modified self-reported HA risk, as well as acute-phase inflammatory responses in subjects with periodontitis using NHANES III data.Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate the association between total dietary fiber intake levels, and selected vegetables, fruits, legumes, and cereal fiber intake and the risk of self-reported history of heart attack (HA in periodontitis subjects using data available in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III.Materials and Methods: Adult participants in NHANES III were used in this study. Zero to thirty three (0-33 percent of sites with periodontal attachment loss > 3 mm was considered a healthy periodontium, while greater than thirty three percent (>33 of sites with periodontal attachment loss of > 3 mm as periodontitis. The outcome variable was the self-reported history of HA. Total dietary fiber, and monthly selected vegetable, fruit, legume and cereal consumption were divided into low and adequate levels. Data was analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis, ANOVA and multivariate analyses using SPSS ®. P<0.05 was used to

  1. Quantifying Blood Loss and Transfusion Risk After Primary vs Conversion Total Hip Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Jared M; Webb, Matthew R; Klika, Alison K; Murray, Trevor G; Barsoum, Wael K; Higuera, Carlos A

    2017-06-01

    Primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and conversion THA may result in substantial blood loss, sometimes necessitating transfusion. Despite the complexities of the latter, both are grouped in the same category for quality assessment and reimbursement. This study's purpose was to compare both blood loss and transfusion risk in primary and conversion THA and identify their associated predictors. A total of 1616 patients who underwent primary and conversion THA at a single hospital from 2009-2013 were reviewed (primary THA = 1575; conversion THA = 41). Demographics, comorbidities, and perioperative data were collected from electronic records. Blood loss was calculated using a validated method. Transfusion triggers were based on standardized criteria. Separate multivariable regression models for blood loss and transfusion were performed. Conversion THA patients were younger (P = .002), had lower age-adjusted Charlson scores (P = .006), longer surgeries (P quantified in the present study and showed consistent results between the 2 metrics. The differences between these procedures should be addressed during quality assurance because conversion THA is associated with higher resource utilization, which is important in the allocation of resources and tiered reimbursement strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Totally implantable central venous access port infections in patients with digestive cancer: incidence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touré, Abdoulaye; Vanhems, Philippe; Lombard-Bohas, Catherine; Cassier, Philippe; Péré-Vergé, Denis; Souquet, Jean-Christophe; Ecochard, René; Chambrier, Cécile

    2012-12-01

    Central venous access port-related bloodstream infection (CVAP-BSI) is associated with morbidity and mortality in patients with cancer. This study examined the incidence rates and risk factors for CVAP-BSI in adult patients with digestive cancer. This prospective observational cohort study was performed from 2007 to 2011 in 2 oncology units of a university hospital. Incidence rate was expressed as number of CVAP-BSI per 1,000 catheter-days. A Cox regression model was used to identify risk factors for CVAP-BSI. A total of 315 patients were included. CVAP-BSI occurred in 41 patients (13.0%). The overall incidence rate was 0.76/1,000 catheter-days. The rate was higher in patients with esophageal cancer (1.28. P = .05) and pancreatic cancer (1.24; P = .007). Risk factors independently associated with CVAP-BSI were World Health Organization performance status between 2 and 4, catheter utilization-days in the previous month, pancreatic cancer, and parenteral nutrition. Coagulase-negative Staphylococci and enterobacteria were the main microorganisms isolated. In adult patients with digestive cancer, pancreatic cancer, cumulative catheter utilization-days, World Health Organization performance status, and parenteral nutrition were identified as independent risk factors for CVAP-BSI. Patients with any of these risk factors could be candidates for preventive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Total body irradiation: current indications; L`irradiation corporelle totale: les indications actuelles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giraud, P.; Danhier, S.; Dubray, B.; Cosset, J.M. [Institut Curie, 75 - Paris (France)

    1998-05-01

    The choice of dose and fractionation for total body irradiation is made difficult by the large number of considerations to be taken into account. The outcome of bone marrow transplantation after total body irradiation can be understood in terms of tumor cell killing, engraftment, and normal tissue damage, each of these endpoints being influenced by irradiation-, disease-, transplant-, and patient- related factors. Interpretation of clinical data is further hampered by the overwhelming influence of logistic constraints, the small numbers of randomized studies, and the concomitant variations in total dose and fraction size or dose rate. So far, three cautious conclusions can be drawn in order to tentatively adapt the total body irradiation schedule to clinically-relevant situations. Firstly, the organs at risk for normal tissue damage (lung, liver, lens, kidney) are protected by delivering small doses per fraction at low dose rate. This suggests that, when toxicity is at stake (e.g. in children), fractionated irradiation should be preferred, provided that inter-fraction intervals are long enough. Secondly, fractionated irradiation should be avoided in case of T-cell depleted transplant, given the high risk of graft rejection in this setting. An alternative would be to increase total (or fractional) dose of fractionated total body irradiation, but this approach is likely to induce more normal tissue toxicity. Thirdly, clinical data have shown higher relapse rates in chronic myeloid leukemia after fractionated or low dose rate total body irradiation, suggesting that fractionated irradiation should not be recommended, unless total (or fractional) dose is increased. Total body irradiation-containing regimens, primarily cyclophosphamide / total body irradiation, are either equivalent to or better than the chemotherapy-only regimens, primarily busulfan / cyclophosphamide. Busulfan / cyclophosphamide certainly represents a reasonable alternative, especially in patients who

  4. Total sitting time, leisure time physical activity and risk of hospitalization due to low back pain: The Danish Health Examination Survey cohort 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balling, Mie; Holmberg, Teresa; Petersen, Christina B; Aadahl, Mette; Meyrowitsch, Dan W; Tolstrup, Janne S

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed to test the hypotheses that a high total sitting time and vigorous physical activity in leisure time increase the risk of low back pain and herniated lumbar disc disease. A total of 76,438 adults answered questions regarding their total sitting time and physical activity during leisure time in the Danish Health Examination Survey 2007-2008. Information on low back pain diagnoses up to 10 September 2015 was obtained from The National Patient Register. The mean follow-up time was 7.4 years. Data were analysed using Cox regression analysis with adjustment for potential confounders. Multiple imputations were performed for missing values. During the follow-up period, 1796 individuals were diagnosed with low back pain, of whom 479 were diagnosed with herniated lumbar disc disease. Total sitting time was not associated with low back pain or herniated lumbar disc disease. However, moderate or vigorous physical activity, as compared to light physical activity, was associated with increased risk of low back pain (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30 and HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.15-1.83). Moderate, but not vigorous physical activity was associated with increased risk of herniated lumbar disc disease. The results suggest that total sitting time is not associated with low back pain, but moderate and vigorous physical activity is associated with increased risk of low back pain compared with light physical activity.

  5. Assessment of risk factors in radionuclides pollution of coastal zone and river basins by numerical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsitskishvili, M.; Tsitskishvili, L.; Kordzakhia, G.; Diasamidze, R.; Shaptoshvili, A.; Valiaev, A.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: All types of industrial activities require the norms of protection, assessment of corresponding risks to preserve the pollution and degradation of corresponding areas. To make available the sustainable development of the country the risk assessment of possible accidents on the big enterprises is foreseen that provides preparedness of the country and possibility of the prevention measures and mitigation of the accidents. While big anthropogenic accidents in mountainous countries - the main paths for transportation of the pollution are the rivers and sea basins. Due to overpopulation of these areas assessment of the pollution risks are very important. For this aim the special deterministic models on the basis of passive admixture's turbulence diffusion equation is used. For numerical calculations Mc Kormack's predictor-corrector two steps scheme is used. The scheme is disintegrated, second order in space and time. Such scheme is established because the turbulent velocities very differ in horizontal and vertical directions and model allows implementing singular independent steps in different directions. Grid step for the model is 26.88 km in horizontal direction and 20 m m in vertical until 200 m. Time step is equal to 4 hours and computational time period - 4 months. Number of grid points is equal to 4983 for all calculation areas. Computations are carried out separately for big rivers basins as well as for Black and Caspian Seas water areas. The model calculations are made for cases with various locations of pollutant sources including accidental throws. For different realistic scenarios are calculated the concentrations of admixtures. The directions of their propagation are also determined. The risks are calculated in comparison with the Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPC) of the pollutants according to achieved results. That gives possibility to define the most vulnerable areas in coastal zones. Realized methodology is verified by means of various

  6. Image-guided total marrow and total lymphatic irradiation using helical tomotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultheiss, Timothy E.; Wong, Jeffrey; Liu, An; Olivera, Gustavo; Somlo, George

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a treatment technique to spare normal tissue and allow dose escalation in total body irradiation (TBI). We have developed intensity-modulated radiotherapy techniques for the total marrow irradiation (TMI), total lymphatic irradiation, or total bone marrow plus lymphatic irradiation using helical tomotherapy. Methods and Materials: For TBI, we typically use 12 Gy in 10 fractions delivered at an extended source-to-surface distance (SSD). Using helical tomotherapy, it is possible to deliver equally effective doses to the bone marrow and lymphatics while sparing normal organs to a significant degree. In the TMI patients, whole body skeletal bone, including the ribs and sternum, comprise the treatment target. In the total lymphatic irradiation, the target is expanded to include the spleen and major lymph node areas. Sanctuary sites for disease (brain and testes) are included when clinically indicated. Spared organs include the lungs, esophagus, parotid glands, eyes, oral cavity, liver, kidneys, stomach, small and large intestine, bladder, and ovaries. Results: With TBI, all normal organs received the TBI dose; with TMI, total lymphatic irradiation, and total bone marrow plus lymphatic irradiation, the visceral organs are spared. For the first 6 patients treated with TMI, the median dose to organs at risk averaged 51% lower than would be achieved with TBI. By putting greater weight on the avoidance of specific organs, greater sparing was possible. Conclusion: Sparing of normal tissues and dose escalation is possible using helical tomotherapy. Late effects such as radiation pneumonitis, veno-occlusive disease, cataracts, neurocognitive effects, and the development of second tumors should be diminished in severity and frequency according to the dose reduction realized for the organs at risk

  7. Cross-sectional associations of total sitting and leisure screen time with cardiometabolic risk in adults. Results from the HUNT Study, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chau, Josephine Y; Grunseit, Anne; Midthjell, Kristian; Holmen, Jostein; Holmen, Turid L; Bauman, Adrian E; van der Ploeg, Hidde P

    2014-01-01

    To examine associations of total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use with cardiometabolic risk biomarkers in adults. Population based cross-sectional study. Waist circumference, BMI, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, non-fasting glucose, gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) and triglycerides were measured in 48,882 adults aged 20 years or older from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 2006-2008 (HUNT3). Adjusted multiple regression models were used to test for associations between these biomarkers and self-reported total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use in the whole sample and by cardiometabolic disease status sub-groups. In the whole sample, reporting total sitting time ≥10 h/day was associated with poorer BMI, waist circumference, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, non-fasting glucose, GGT and triglyceride levels compared to those reporting total sitting time Leisure-time computer use ≥1 h/day was associated with poorer BMI, total cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, GGT and triglycerides compared with those reporting no leisure-time computing. Sub-group analyses by cardiometabolic disease status showed similar patterns in participants free of cardiometabolic disease, while similar albeit non-significant patterns were observed in those with cardiometabolic disease. Total sitting time, TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use are associated with poorer cardiometabolic risk profiles in adults. Reducing sedentary behaviour throughout the day and limiting TV-viewing and leisure-time computer use may have health benefits. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A study on the development of the radiation protection numerical guideline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, M. S.; Kang, C. S.

    1998-01-01

    The present paper intends to develope the radiation protection numerical guideline for next generation nuclear power plants. For the determining a value for a societal life, medical costs method, wages and investments method, and GNP method are used. In assessing the risk factors due to radiation exposure, it is accepted that fatal cancer risk, nonfatal cancer risk, and genetic risk factors proposed by ICRP 60. It is calculated that the societal value of life with corresponding range of from $886,500 to $3,406,000 in 1996 U.S. dollars. The person-rem cost estimates can be found to range from $650 per person-rem to $2,500 per person-rem. The radiation protection numerical guideline for next generation nuclear power plants is proposed by $1,600 per person-rem

  9. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

  10. Predictors of revision, prosthetic joint infection and mortality following total hip or total knee arthroplasty in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordtz, Rene Lindholm; Zobbe, Kristian; Højgaard, Pil

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate predictors of 10-year risk of revision and 1-year risk of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) and death following total hip/total knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) in (1) patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with patients with osteoarthritis (OA); and (2) patients...

  11. Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  12. Total Effective Xenoestrogen Burden in Serum Samples and Risk for Breast Cancer in a Population-Based Multicase–Control Study in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Fernández, Mariana F.; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Whelan, Denis; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Llorca, Javier; Villanueva, Cristina M.; Guevara, Marcela; Molina-Molina, José-Manuel; Artacho-Cordón, Francisco; Barriuso-Lapresa, Laura; Tusquets, Ignasi; Dierssen-Sotos, Trinidad; Aragonés, Nuria; Olea, Nicolás; Kogevinas, Manolis; Pollán, Marina

    2016-01-01

    Background: Most studies on endocrine-disrupting chemicals and breast cancer have focused on single compounds and have produced inconclusive findings. Objectives: We assessed the combined estrogenic effects of mixtures of xenoestrogens in serum and their relationship to breast cancer risk. Methods: A total of 186 incident pretreatment breast cancer cases and 196 frequency-matched controls were randomly sampled from a large population-based multicase–control study in Spain. The total effective xenoestrogen burden attributable to organohalogenated xenoestrogens (TEXB-α) and endogenous hormones and more polar xenoestrogens (TEXB-β) was determined in serum samples using high-performance liquid chromatography and E-Screen bioassay. Odds ratios for breast cancer comparing tertiles of serum TEXB-α and TEXB-β were estimated using logistic models, and smooth risk trends were obtained using spline models. Results: Cases had higher geometric mean TEXB-α and TEXB-β levels (8.32 and 9.94 Eeq pM/mL, respectively) than controls (2.99 and 5.96 Eeq pM/mL, respectively). The fully adjusted odds ratios for breast cancer (95% confidence intervals) comparing the second and third tertiles of TEXB-α with the first tertile were 1.77 (0.76, 4.10) and 3.45 (1.50, 7.97), respectively, and those for TEXB-β were 2.35 (1.10, 5.03) and 4.01 (1.88, 8.56), respectively. A steady increase in risk was evident across all detected TEXB-α levels and a sigmoidal trend was observed for TEXB-β. Individual xenoestrogens showed weak and opposing associations with breast cancer risk. Conclusions: This is the first study to show a strong positive association between serum total xenoestrogen burden and breast cancer risk, highlighting the importance of evaluating xenoestrogen mixtures, rather than single compounds, when studying hormone-related cancers. Citation: Pastor-Barriuso R, Fernández MF, Castaño-Vinyals G, Whelan D, Pérez-Gómez B, Llorca J, Villanueva CM, Guevara M, Molina-Molina JM

  13. Ileus following total hip or knee arthroplasty is associated with increased risk of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berend, Keith R; Lombardi, Adolph V; Mallory, Thomas H; Dodds, Kathleen L; Adams, Joanne B

    2004-10-01

    Venous thromboembolic disease (VTD), deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, causes morbidity and mortality following total hip and total knee arthroplasties, while ileus complicates up to 4.0%. The clinical courses of 2,949 patients undergoing 3,364 consecutive primary and revision total hip and total knee arthroplasties, radical debridements, and reimplantations at one institution over a 2-year period were reviewed to examine the relationship between ileus and VTD. VTD prophylaxis consisted of aspirin and intermittent plantar pulse boots for all patients except those at high risk, who received parenteral chemical prophylaxis and boots. Ileus occurred in 62 patients (2.1%) and symptomatic DVT in 51 (1.7%). With ileus, the incidence of DVT was 8.1%: odds ratio 5.5 (P =.0036). Symptomatic pulmonary embolism occurred in 7 patients (0.24%); with ileus the incidence was 3.2%: odds ratio 19.6 (P =.0082). A significant increase was observed in rates of VTD with ileus. We recommend using parenteral chemical and mechanical prophylaxis in patients with ileus following total hip and total knee arthroplasties.

  14. Effect of hydroxyapatite coating on risk of revision after primary total hip arthroplasty in younger patients: findings from the Danish Hip Arthroplasty Registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Aksel; Pedersen, Alma B; Johnsen, Søren P

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The effect of hydroxyapatite (HA) on implant survival in the medium and long term is uncertain. We studied the effect of HA coating of uncemented implants on the risk of cup and stem revision in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Danish Hip Arthropla......BACKGROUND: The effect of hydroxyapatite (HA) on implant survival in the medium and long term is uncertain. We studied the effect of HA coating of uncemented implants on the risk of cup and stem revision in primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using the Danish Hip...

  15. Total - annual report 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This annual report presents the activities and results of TOTAL S.A., french society on oil and gas. It deals with statistics, the managers, key information on financial data and risk factors, information on the Company, unresolved Staff Comments, employees, major Shareholders, consolidated statements, markets, security, financial risks, defaults dividend arrearages and delinquencies, controls and procedures, code of ethics and financial statements. (A.L.B.)

  16. Numerical methods in nuclear engineering. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, G.J.

    1983-08-01

    These proceedings, published in two parts contain the full text of 56 papers and summaries of six papers presented at the conference. They cover the use of numerical methods in thermal hydraulics, reactor physics, neutron diffusion, subchannel analysis, risk assessment, transport theory, and fuel behaviour

  17. Association of total energy intake and macronutrient consumption with colorectal cancer risk: results from a large population-based case-control study in Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhuoyu; Liu, Lin; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Roebothan, Barbara; Zhao, Jin; Dicks, Elizabeth; Cotterchio, Michelle; Buehler, Sharon; Campbell, Peter T; McLaughlin, John R; Parfrey, Patrick S

    2012-03-26

    Diet is regarded as one of the most important environmental factors associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A recent report comprehensively concluded that total energy intake does not have a simple relationship with CRC risk, and that the data were inconsistent for carbohydrate, cholesterol and protein. The objective of this study was to identify the associations of CRC risk with dietary intakes of total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, and alcohol using data from a large case-control study conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Ontario (ON), Canada. Incident colorectal cancer cases (n = 1760) were identified from population-based cancer registries in the provinces of ON (1997-2000) and NL (1999-2003). Controls (n = 2481) were a random sample of residents in each province, aged 20-74 years. Family history questionnaire (FHQ), personal history questionnaire (PHQ), and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were used to collect study data. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of intakes of total energy, macronutrients and alcohol with CRC risk. Total energy intake was associated with higher risk of CRC (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.21-2.01, p-trend = 0.02, 5th versus 1st quintile), whereas inverse associations emerged for intakes of protein (OR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.69-1.00, p-trend = 0.06, 5th versus 1st quintile), carbohydrate (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.63-1.00, p-trend = 0.05, 5th versus 1st quintile) and total dietary fiber (OR: 0.84, 95% CI:0.67-0.99, p-trend = 0.04, 5th versus 1st quintile). Total fat, alcohol, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and cholesterol were not associated with CRC risk. This study provides further evidence that high energy intake may increase risk of incident CRC, whereas diets high in protein, fiber, and carbohydrate may reduce the risk of the disease.

  18. Association of total energy intake and macronutrient consumption with colorectal cancer risk: results from a large population-based case-control study in Newfoundland and Labrador and Ontario, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun Zhuoyu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diet is regarded as one of the most important environmental factors associated with colorectal cancer (CRC risk. A recent report comprehensively concluded that total energy intake does not have a simple relationship with CRC risk, and that the data were inconsistent for carbohydrate, cholesterol and protein. The objective of this study was to identify the associations of CRC risk with dietary intakes of total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, and alcohol using data from a large case-control study conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL and Ontario (ON, Canada. Methods Incident colorectal cancer cases (n = 1760 were identified from population-based cancer registries in the provinces of ON (1997-2000 and NL (1999-2003. Controls (n = 2481 were a random sample of residents in each province, aged 20-74 years. Family history questionnaire (FHQ, personal history questionnaire (PHQ, and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ were used to collect study data. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of intakes of total energy, macronutrients and alcohol with CRC risk. Results Total energy intake was associated with higher risk of CRC (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.21-2.01, p-trend = 0.02, 5th versus 1st quintile, whereas inverse associations emerged for intakes of protein (OR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.69-1.00, p-trend = 0.06, 5th versus 1st quintile, carbohydrate (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.63-1.00, p-trend = 0.05, 5th versus 1st quintile and total dietary fiber (OR: 0.84, 95% CI:0.67-0.99, p-trend = 0.04, 5th versus 1st quintile. Total fat, alcohol, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and cholesterol were not associated with CRC risk. Conclusion This study provides further evidence that high energy intake may increase risk of incident CRC, whereas diets high in protein, fiber, and carbohydrate may reduce the risk of the disease.

  19. Total mercury in muscles and liver of Mugil spp. from three coastal lagoons of NW Mexico: concentrations and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado-Alvarez, C G; Frías-Espericueta, M G; Ruelas-Inzunza, J; Becerra-Álvarez, M J; Osuna-Martínez, C C; Aguilar-Juárez, M; Osuna-López, J I; Escobar-Sánchez, O; Voltolina, D

    2017-07-01

    Total mercury (Hg) concentrations were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry in muscles and liver of composite samples of Mugil cephalus and M. curema collected during November 2013 and in January, April, and July 2014 from the coastal lagoons Altata-Ensenada del Pabellón (AEP), Ceuta (CEU), and Teacapán-Agua Brava (TAG) of Sinaloa State. The mean Hg contents and information on local consumption were used to assess the possible risk caused by fish ingestion. Mean total mercury levels in the muscles ranged from 0.11 to 0.39 μg/g, while the range for liver was 0.12-3.91 μg/g. The mean Hg content of the liver was significantly (p mercury calculated for the younger age classes of one fishing community were >1, indicating a possible risk for some fishing communities of the Mexican Pacific coast.

  20. Combined effect of blood pressure and total cholesterol levels on long-term risks of subtypes of cardiovascular death: Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Michihiro; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Asayama, Kei; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Sakurai, Masaru; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Iso, Hiroyasu; Okayama, Akira; Miura, Katsuyuki; Imai, Yutaka; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori

    2015-03-01

    No large-scale, longitudinal studies have examined the combined effects of blood pressure (BP) and total cholesterol levels on long-term risks for subtypes of cardiovascular death in an Asian population. To investigate these relationships, a meta-analysis of individual participant data, which included 73 916 Japanese subjects (age, 57.7 years; men, 41.1%) from 11 cohorts, was conducted. During a mean follow-up of 15.0 years, deaths from coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and intraparenchymal hemorrhage occurred in 770, 724, and 345 cases, respectively. Cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used. After stratifying the participants by 4 systolic BP ×4 total cholesterol categories, the group with systolic BP ≥160 mm Hg with total cholesterol ≥5.7 mmol/L had the greatest risk for coronary heart disease death (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.39; Pdeath, and total cholesterol was inversely associated with intraparenchymal hemorrhage, but no significant interactions between BP and total cholesterol were observed for stroke. High BP and high total cholesterol can synergistically increase the risk for coronary heart disease death but not for stroke in the Asian population. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Dietary total flavonoids intake and risk of mortality from all causes and cardiovascular disease in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xue-Ming; Liu, Yu-Jian; Huang, Yao; Yu, Hong-Jie; Yuan, Shuai; Tang, Bo-Wen; Wang, Pei-Gang; He, Qi-Qiang

    2017-06-01

    Epidemiologic studies assessing the association between dietary total flavonoids intake and the risk of mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all causes have yielded inconsistent results. Therefore, we conducted a dose-response meta-analysis to investigate this association. We searched PubMed and Embase databases from January 1966 through May 2016 and examined the references of retrieved articles to identify relevant prospective cohort studies. The random-effect model was used to calculate the summary risk estimates and dose-response analysis was performed. Ten studies were included in the present meta-analysis. The relative risk (RR) of all-cause mortality for the highest versus lowest category of total flavonoids intake was 0.82 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.92). Dose-response analysis showed that those consuming 200 mg/day of total flavonoids had the lowest risk of all-cause mortality. Furthermore, a marginally significant association was found between dietary total flavonoids consumption and risk of death from CVD (summary RR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.70-1.03; P = 0.099) and coronary heart diseases (summary RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.54-1.02; P = 0.069), respectively. The meta-analysis provides strong evidence for the recommendation of consuming flavonoids-rich food to reduce risks of mortality from all causes as part of a healthy diet among general adults. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  2. The Program Module of Information Risk Numerical Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Stepanova

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The algorithm of information risks analysis realized in the program module on the basis of threats matrixes and fuzzy cognitive maps describing potential threats on resources is offered in this paper.

  3. The role of organization and culture in risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodney, G.A.

    1992-01-01

    Technology-based organizations recognize that risk is an inherent element of their business. The challenge for managers is to determine an approach to risk that balances operational requirements with safety policies and regulations. The consequences of a safety approach that is not rigorous enough can be serious. Yet, attempting to achieve a totally risk-free operation literally can preclude much of the risk-taking that must characterize high-technology programs. Achieving true balance between performance and safety means first determining the level of risk that is acceptable to your organization. One of the first steps is to understand how the organizational structure and culture influence risk decisions. Organizational structure defines the manner in which the work force will participate in the risk decision-making process and whether they will have the necessary resources to estimate risk effectively. While numerous analysis techniques are available to predict and evaluate technical risks, it's more difficult to gauge the intangible impact of culture. Culture refers to the prevailing safety attitudes in the workplace and the methods used to evaluate risk. For this discussion, risk refers to safety and mission success. Application can be made to the nuclear industry

  4. Higher complication risk of totally implantable venous access port systems in patients with advanced cancer - a single institution retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yi-Fang; Lo, An-Chi; Tsai, Chung-Hsin; Lee, Pei-Yi; Sun, Shen; Chang, Te-Hsin; Chen, Chien-Chuan; Chang, Yuan-Shin; Chen, Jen-Ruei

    2013-02-01

    Totally implantable port systems are generally recommended for prolonged central venous access in diverse settings, but their risk of complications remains unclear for patients with advanced cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of port system failure in patients with advanced cancer. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in a comprehensive cancer centre. A detailed chart review was conducted among 566 patients with 573 ports inserted during January-June, 2009 (average 345.3 catheter-days). Cox regression analysis was applied to evaluate factors during insertion and early maintenance that could lead to premature removal of the port systems due to infection or occlusion. Port system-related infection was significantly associated with receiving palliative care immediately after implantation (hazard ratio, HR = 7.3, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 1.2-46.0), after adjusting for probable confounders. Primary cancer site also impacted the occurrence of device-related infection. Receiving oncologic/palliative care (HR = 3.0, P = 0.064), advanced cancer stage (HR = 6.5, P = 0.077) and body surface area above 1.71 m(2) (HR = 3.4, P = 0.029) increased the risk of port system occlusion. Our study indicates that totally implantable port systems yield a higher risk of complications in terminally ill patients. Further investigation should be carefully conducted to compare outcomes of various central venous access devices in patients with advanced cancer and to develop preventive strategies against catheter failure.

  5. Failure of aseptic revision total knee arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Tesfaye H; Lygre, Stein Håkon L; Skredderstuen, Arne; Hallan, Geir; Furnes, Ove

    2015-02-01

    In Norway, the proportion of revision knee arthroplasties increased from 6.9% in 1994 to 8.5% in 2011. However, there is limited information on the epidemiology and causes of subsequent failure of revision knee arthroplasty. We therefore studied survival rate and determined the modes of failure of aseptic revision total knee arthroplasties. This study was based on 1,016 aseptic revision total knee arthroplasties reported to the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register between 1994 and 2011. Revisions done for infections were not included. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to assess the survival rate and the relative risk of re-revision with all causes of re-revision as endpoint. 145 knees failed after revision total knee arthroplasty. Deep infection was the most frequent cause of re-revision (28%), followed by instability (26%), loose tibial component (17%), and pain (10%). The cumulative survival rate for revision total knee arthroplasties was 85% at 5 years, 78% at 10 years, and 71% at 15 years. Revision total knee arthroplasties with exchange of the femoral or tibial component exclusively had a higher risk of re-revision (RR = 1.7) than those with exchange of the whole prosthesis. The risk of re-revision was higher for men (RR = 2.0) and for patients aged less than 60 years (RR = 1.6). In terms of implant survival, revision of the whole implant was better than revision of 1 component only. Young age and male sex were risk factors for re-revision. Deep infection was the most frequent cause of failure of revision of aseptic total knee arthroplasties.

  6. Preoperative psychosocial risk factors for poor outcomes at 1 and 5 years after total knee replacement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylde, Vikki; Trela-Larsen, Lea; Whitehouse, Michael R; Blom, Ashley W

    2017-10-01

    Background and purpose - Psychosocial factors are important risk factors for poor outcomes in the first year after total knee replacement (TKR), however their impact on long-term outcomes is unclear. We aimed to identify preoperative psychosocial risk factors for poor outcomes at 1 year and 5 years after TKR. Patients and methods - 266 patients were recruited prior to TKR surgery. Knee pain and function were assessed preoperatively and at 1 and 5 years postoperative using the WOMAC Pain score, WOMAC Function score and American Knee Society Score (AKSS) Knee score. Preoperative depression, anxiety, catastrophizing, pain self-efficacy and social support were assessed. Statistical analyses involved multiple linear regression and mixed effect linear regression. Results - Higher anxiety was a risk factor for worse pain at 1 year postoperative. No psychosocial factors were associated with any outcomes at 5 years postoperative. Analysis of change over time found that patients with higher pain self-efficacy had lower preoperative pain and experienced less improvement in pain up to 1 year postoperative. Higher pain self-efficacy was associated with less improvement in the AKSS up to 1 year postoperative but more improvement between 1 and 5 years postoperative. Interpretation - Preoperative anxiety was found to influence pain at 1 year after TKR. However, none of the psychosocial variables were risk factors for a poor outcome at 5 years post-operative, suggesting that the negative effects of anxiety on outcome do not persist in the longer-term.

  7. Changes in lifestyle, biological risk factors and total homocysteine in relation to MTHFR C677T genotype: a 5-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Husemoen, L L N; Linneberg, A; Fenger, M

    2009-01-01

    to increased tHcy in cross-sectional studies. In addition, the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T gene variant is an important determinant of elevated tHcy. The main objective of the study was to examine the effect of changes in biological risk factors and lifestyle on tHcy in relation to MTHFR......, physical activity, smoking status, coffee, tea, total alcohol or wine consumption. An inverse relationship was observed between changes in tHcy and changes in the intake of beer in TT individuals but not in CC/CT individuals (P (interaction)=0.01). In addition, changes in tHcy were positively associated......BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Total homocysteine (tHcy) has been associated with increased risk of several diseases in the general population. It is not clear whether these associations are causal. A less healthy lifestyle as well as a less favorable biological risk factor profile have been related...

  8. Numerical methods for Bayesian inference in the face of aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.; Villain, B.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years, much attention has been paid to Bayesian methods for Risk Assessment. Until now, these methods have been studied from a theoretical point of view. Researchers have been mainly interested in: studying the effectiveness of Bayesian methods in handling rare events; debating about the problem of priors and other philosophical issues. An aspect central to the Bayesian approach is numerical computation because any safety/reliability problem, in a Bayesian frame, ends with a problem of numerical integration. This aspect has been neglected until now because most Risk studies assumed the Exponential model as the basic probabilistic model. The existence of conjugate priors makes numerical integration unnecessary in this case. If aging is to be taken into account, no conjugate family is available and the use of numerical integration becomes compulsory. EDF (National Board of Electricity, of France) and ENEA (National Committee for Energy, New Technologies and Environment, of Italy) jointly carried out a research program aimed at developing quadrature methods suitable for Bayesian Interference with underlying Weibull or gamma distributions. The paper will illustrate the main results achieved during the above research program and will discuss, via some sample cases, the performances of the numerical algorithms which on the appearance of stress corrosion cracking in the tubes of Steam Generators of PWR French power plants. (authors)

  9. Less Than Total Excision of Infected Prosthetic PTFE Graft Does Not Increase the Risk of Reinfection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgroi, Michael D; Kirkpatrick, Vincent E; Resnick, Karen A; Williams, Russell A; Wilson, Samuel E; Gordon, Ian L

    2015-01-01

    Traditional treatment of infected polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) grafts consist of removal of the entire prosthesis. Closure of the native vessels may compromise vascular patency. We examined the outcomes for patients in whom a PTFE remnant of an infected graft was retained on the vessel. We reviewed the operating room log from 2000 to 2011 and identified all patients who had partial removal of an infected PTFE graft used for hemodialysis or peripheral bypass. These patients were examined for subsequent complications. Twenty-seven patients underwent 30 partial graft excisions with mean follow-up of 27 months. A total of 17% (5 of 30) of the partial graft resection procedures resulted in complications. Of 48 total remnants left behind at the arterial or venous anastomoses, reinfection occurred in 15%. Leaving a well-incorporated small 1-to 5-mm PTFE remnant at the arterial or venous anastomoses can be performed safely with a low risk of complications. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Nonfasting cholesterol and triglycerides and association with risk of myocardial infarction and total mortality: the Copenhagen City Heart Study with 31 years of follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langsted, A; Freiberg, J J; Tybjaerg-Hansen, A

    2011-01-01

    Abstract. Langsted A, Freiberg JJ, Tybjaerg-Hansen A, Schnohr P, Jensen GB, Nordestgaard BG (Herlev Hospital, Herlev; University of Copenhagen; Bispebjerg Hospital; and Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen Ø, Denmark) Nonfasting cholesterol and triglycerides and association with risk of myocardial infarction...... and total mortality: the Copenhagen City Heart Study with 31 years of follow-up. J Intern Med 2010; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2796.2010.02333.x. Objectives. We compared the ability of very high levels of nonfasting cholesterol and triglycerides to predict risk of myocardial infarction and total mortality. Design...

  11. Acetabular Dysplasia and Surgical Approaches Other Than Direct Anterior Increases Risk for Malpositioning of the Acetabular Component in Total Hip Arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gromov, Kirill; Greene, Meridith E; Huddleston, James I

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Persistent acetabular dysplasia (AD) after periacetabular osteotomy has been hypothesized to increase the risk for malpositioning of the acetabular component. In this study, we investigate whether AD is an independent risk factor for cup malpositioning during primary total hip...... arthroplasty (THA). METHODS: Patient demographics, surgical approach, presence of AD assessed using the lateral center-edge angle, and acetabular cup positioning determined using Martell Hip Analysis Suite were investigated in 836 primary THA patients enrolled in a prospective multicenter study. RESULTS: We...

  12. Riesgo familiar total en familias con escolares según rendimiento académico Risco familiar total em famílias com escolares conforme aproveitamento acadêmico Total family risk in families with schoolchildren according to academic performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAROLINA LUCERO ENRÍQUEZ GUERRERO

    comparativo transversal com um componente analítico e abordagem quantitativa; a amostra foi de 186 famílias, durante abril -julho de 2007. Os resultados apresentam predomínio de famílias nucleares em ambos os grupos (65%, relação inversa entre o risco familiar total avaliado pelo instrumento RFT 7-70 e o aproveitamento acadêmico do escolar da família, isto é, que as famílias que registraram alto risco (9% e meio (31% em maior proporção são famílias de escolares com baixo aproveitamento acadêmico, comparado com o predomínio de risco familiar baixo (78% nas famílias de crianças de alto aproveitamento. Aplicou-se a t de student para diferença de médias e verificou-se uma associação (P = 0,02 entre o risco familiar total alto e o baixo aproveitamento acadêmico do escolar. Em conclusão, estes resultados sugerem principalmente que é preciso priorizar os fatores de risco que determinam maior risco familiar em famílias com escolares de aproveitamento acadêmico alto e cuidar a saúde integral com uma abordagem familiar e intersectorial, além de participar ativamente nas comunidades, continuar pesquisando sobre as possíveis associações entre a saúde individual, práticas de saúde, educação, ambiente socioeconômico e psicoafetivo da família, e o sucesso educativo de escolares em famílias com idade escolar.This article presents the results of a study whose objective was to establish the family risk differences among two groups of families: one with schoolchildren that show high academic performance and children that show low academic performance in an educational center in Bogotá. Methodology: cross-sectional comparative study with and analytic component and a quantitative approach; the sample was 186 families during the period April-July 2007. The results show a predominance of nuclear families in both groups (65%, reverse relation between the family risk evaluated by the RFT 7-70 instrument and the academic performance of the family´s schoolchild

  13. Riesgo familiar total en familias con escolares según rendimiento académico Total family risk in families with schoolchildren according to academic performance Risco familiar total em famílias com escolares conforme aproveitamento acadêmico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CATAÑO ORDÓÑEZ NHORA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo presenta los resultados del estudio cuyo objetivo fue establecer las diferencias en el riesgo familiar entre dos grupos de familias: con niños escolares de alto rendimiento y niños de bajo rendimiento académico en un centro educativo distrital de Bogotá. Metodología: estudio descriptivo comparativo transversal con un componente analítico y abordaje cuantitativo; la muestra fue de 186 familias, durante abril a julio de 2007. Los resultados muestran predominio de familias nucleares en ambos grupos (65%, relación inversa entre el riesgo familiar total evaluado por el instrumento RFT 7-70 y el rendimiento académico del escolar de la familia, es decir que las familias que registraron riesgo alto (9% y medio (31% en mayor proporción son familias con escolares de bajo rendimiento académico, frente al predominio del riesgo familiar bajo (78% en las familias con niños de alto rendimiento. Se aplicó t de student para diferencia de medias y se encontró asociación (P = 0,02 entre el riesgo familiar total alto y el bajo rendimiento académico del escolar. En conclusión, estos resultados sugieren principalmente que se deben priorizar los factores de riesgo que determinan mayor riesgo familiar en familias con escolares de bajo rendimiento académico y dar atención de salud integral con enfoque familiar e intersectorial, y participación activa de la comunidad. Continuar investigando en posibles asociaciones entre salud individual, prácticas de salud, educación, ambiente socioeconómico y psicoafectivo de la familia y el logro educativo de escolares en familias con niños en edad escolar.This article presents the results of a study whose objective was to establish the family risk differences among two groups of families: one with schoolchildren that show high academic performance and children that show low academic performance in an educational center in Bogotá. Methodology: cross-sectional comparative study with and

  14. Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhongkai; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Y; Zhu, Chunqing; Zhao, Yifan; Hao, Shiying; Zheng, Le; Fu, Changlin; Wen, Qiaojun; Ji, Jun; Li, Zhen; Wang, Yong; Zheng, Xiaolin; Dai, Dorothy; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

    2015-01-13

    An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a

  15. Industrial water resources management based on violation risk analysis of the total allowable target on wastewater discharge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Wencong; Cai, Yanpeng; Xu, Linyu; Yang, Zhifeng; Yin, Xin'An; Su, Meirong

    2017-07-11

    To improve the capabilities of conventional methodologies in facilitating industrial water allocation under uncertain conditions, an integrated approach was developed through the combination of operational research, uncertainty analysis, and violation risk analysis methods. The developed approach can (a) address complexities of industrial water resources management (IWRM) systems, (b) facilitate reflections of multiple uncertainties and risks of the system and incorporate them into a general optimization framework, and (c) manage robust actions for industrial productions in consideration of water supply capacity and wastewater discharging control. The developed method was then demonstrated in a water-stressed city (i.e., the City of Dalian), northeastern China. Three scenarios were proposed according to the city's industrial plans. The results indicated that in the planning year of 2020 (a) the production of civilian-used steel ships and machine-made paper & paperboard would reduce significantly, (b) violation risk of chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge under scenario 1 would be the most prominent, compared with those under scenarios 2 and 3, (c) the maximal total economic benefit under scenario 2 would be higher than the benefit under scenario 3, and (d) the production of rolling contact bearing, rail vehicles, and commercial vehicles would be promoted.

  16. Use of vitamin supplements and risk of total cancer and cardiovascular disease among the Japanese general population: A population-based survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishihara Junko

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite the popular use of vitamin supplements and several prospective cohort studies investigating their effect on cancer incidence and cardiovascular disease (CVD, scientific data supporting their benefits remain controversial. Inconsistent results may be partly explained by the fact that use of supplements is an inconsistent behavior in individuals. We examined whether vitamin supplement use patterns affect cancer and CVD risk in a population-based cohort study in Japan. Methods A total of 28,903 men and 33,726 women in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study cohort, who answered questions about vitamin supplement use in the first survey from 1990-1994 and the second survey from 1995-1998, were categorized into four groups (never use, past use, recent use, and consistent use and followed to the end of 2006 for cancer and 2005 for CVD. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were used to describe the relative risks of cancer and CVD associated with vitamin supplement use. Results During follow-up, 4501 cancer and 1858 CVD cases were identified. Multivariate adjusted analysis revealed no association of any pattern of vitamin supplement use with the risk of cancer and CVD in men. In women, consistent use was associated with lower risk of CVD (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.89, whereas past (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.33 and recent use (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.52 were associated with higher risk of cancer. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first prospective cohort study to examine simultaneously the associations between vitamin supplement use patterns and risk of cancer and CVD. This prospective cohort study demonstrated that vitamin supplement use has little effect on the risk of cancer or CVD in men. In women, however, consistent vitamin supplement use might reduce the risk of CVD. Elevated risk of cancer associated with past and recent use of vitamin supplements in women may be partly

  17. Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

    2013-11-01

    We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

  18. Supravaginal eller total hysterektomi?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edvardsen, L; Madsen, E M

    1994-01-01

    There has been a decline in the rate of hysterectomies in Denmark in general over the last thirteen years, together with a rise in the number of supravaginal operations over the last two years. The literature concerning the relative merits of the supravaginal and the total abdominal operation is ...... indicate a reduced frequency of orgasm after the total hysterectomy compared with the supravaginal operation. When there are technical problems peroperatively with an increased urologic risk the supravaginal operation is recommended....

  19. A case-control study to identify risk factors for totally implantable central venous port-related bloodstream infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Guk Jin; Hong, Sook Hee; Roh, Sang Young; Park, Sa Rah; Lee, Myung Ah; Chun, Hoo Geun; Hong, Young Seon; Kang, Jin Hyoung; Kim, Sang Il; Kim, Youn Jeong; Chun, Ho Jong; Oh, Jung Suk

    2014-07-01

    To date, the risk factors for central venous port-related bloodstream infection (CVPBSI) in solid cancer patients have not been fully elucidated. We conducted this study in order to determine the risk factors for CVP-BSI in patients with solid cancer. A total of 1,642 patients with solid cancer received an implantable central venous port for delivery of chemotherapy between October 2008 and December 2011 in a single center. CVP-BSI was diagnosed in 66 patients (4%). We selected a control group of 130 patients, who were individually matched with respect to age, sex, and catheter insertion time. CVP-BSI occurred most frequently between September and November (37.9%). The most common pathogen was gram-positive cocci (n=35, 53.0%), followed by fungus (n=14, 21.2%). Multivariate analysis identified monthly catheter-stay as a risk factor for CVP-BSI (p=0.000), however, its risk was lower in primary gastrointestinal cancer than in other cancer (p=0.002). Initial metastatic disease and long catheter-stay were statistically significant factors affecting catheter life span (p=0.005 and p=0.000). Results of multivariate analysis showed that recent transfusion was a risk factor for mortality in patients with CVP-BSI (p=0.047). In analysis of the results with respect to risk factors, prolonged catheter-stay should be avoided as much as possible. It is necessary to be cautious of CVP-BSI in metastatic solid cancer, especially non-gastrointestinal cancer. In addition, avoidance of unnecessary transfusion is essential in order to reduce the mortality of CVP-BSI. Finally, considering the fact that confounding factors may have affected the results, conduct of a well-designed prospective controlled study is warranted.

  20. First trimester serum levels of the soluble transcobalamin receptor, holo-transcobalamin, and total transcobalamin in relation to preeclampsia risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abuyaman, Omar; Torring, Niels; Obeid, Rima

    2016-01-01

    transcobalamin (TC) with the risk of subsequent preeclampsia using serum samples from asymptomatic first trimester pregnant women. Moreover, we aimed to establish reference intervals of the aforementioned biomarkers for first trimester pregnant women who remained healthy throughout pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN...... preeclampsia while the controls remained normotensive throughout pregnancy. We measured the serum concentration of sCD320, holoTC, and total TC by using in-house ELISA methods. RESULTS: First trimester median concentrations of sCD320, holoTC and total TC were not significantly different between cases...... and controls. The odd ratio for developing preeclampsia based on exposure to low or high levels of sCD320, holoTC or total TC at first trimester was not significant. The reference intervals (2.5-97.5% percentiles (median)) derived from the controls were 50-170 (90) pmol\\L for sCD320, 20-140 (70) pmol...

  1. A preclinical numerical assessment of a polyetheretherketone femoral component in total knee arthroplasty during gait

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruiter, L. de; Janssen, D.W.; Briscoe, A.; Verdonschot, N.J.

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Conventional total knee replacement designs show high success rates but in the long term, the stiff metal components may affect bone quality of the distal femur. In this study we introduce an all-polymer total knee replacement device containing a PEEK femoral component on an UHMWPE

  2. Oil characterisation: assessment of composition, risks, degradation and remediation potential of total petroleum hydrocarbons in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lookman, R.; Vanermen, G.; Van De Weghe, H.; Gemoets, J.; Van der Sterren, G.; Alphenaar, A.

    2005-01-01

    Several methods are available for the characterization of petroleum hydrocarbons. The TPHCWG (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group) developed a method based on a silica column separation of aromatics and aliphatics and a GC-FID subdivision into equivalent-carbon fractions (EC) ('TPH-method'). This method was mainly developed for assessing human risks of oil compounds. Within NOBIS (Dutch Research program Biological In-situ Remediation), another method was developed based upon an equilibrium-experiment of the oil-polluted soil with water (column recirculation), which was further developed by TTE ('TTE-method'). This method uses measured water solubilities of individual oil components and GC-retention times yielding a subdivision of the hydrocarbons into compound classes that are relevant for assessing the remediation potential of the specific oil pollution. In this paper we present results of a research project in which we developed a new method, the 'OK-method' that combines these two procedures and allows a complete characterisation of the oil in terms of composition, (human) risks, volatility, solubility, plume behaviour (migration velocities of the soluble components) and aerobic degradation potential. (authors)

  3. Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.

  4. A preclinical numerical assessment of a polyetheretherketone femoral component in total knee arthroplasty during gait

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Ruiter, Lennert; Janssen, Dennis W.; Briscoe, Adam; Verdonschot, Nico

    2017-01-01

    Background Conventional total knee replacement designs show high success rates but in the long term, the stiff metal components may affect bone quality of the distal femur. In this study we introduce an all-polymer total knee replacement device containing a PEEK femoral component on an UHMWPE tibial

  5. The baseline characteristics and interim analyses of the high-risk sentinel cohort of the Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic InfectiONS (VIZIONS)

    OpenAIRE

    Carrique-Mas, Juan J.; Tue, Ngo T.; Bryant, Juliet E.; Saylors, Karen; Cuong, Nguyen V.; Hoa, Ngo T.; An, Nguyen N.; Hien, Vo B.; Lao, Pham V.; Tu, Nguyen C.; Chuyen, Nguyen K.; Chuc, Nguyen T.K.; Tan, Dinh V.; Duong, Hoang Van V.; Toan, Tran K.

    2015-01-01

    The Vietnam Initiative for Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS) includes community-based 'high-risk sentinel cohort' (HRSC) studies investigating individuals at risk of zoonotic infection due to occupational or residential exposure to animals. A total of 852 HRSC members were recruited between March 2013 and August 2014 from three provinces (Ha Noi, Dak Lak, and Dong Thap). The most numerous group (72.8%) corresponded to individuals living on farms, followed by slaughterers (16.3%) and animal health...

  6. Debris Flow Risk Management Framework and Risk Analysis in Taiwan, A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Ting-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Ko; Chiou, Lin-Bin; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Lo, Wen-Chun; Chen, Chen-Yu; Lai, Cheng-Nong; Ju, Jiun-Ping

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan is located on a seismically active mountain belt between the Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. After 1999's Chi-Chi earthquake (Mw=7.6), landslide and debris flow occurred frequently. In Aug. 2009, Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan and numerous landslides and debris flow events, some with tremendous fatalities, were observed. With limited resources, authorities should establish a disaster management system to cope with slope disaster risks more effectively. Since 2006, Taiwan's authority in charge of debris flow management, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB), completed the basic investigation and data collection of 1,503 potential debris flow creeks around Taiwan. During 2008 and 2009, a debris flow quantitative risk analysis (QRA) framework, based on landslide risk management framework of Australia, was proposed and conducted on 106 creeks of the 30 villages with debris flow hazard history. Information and value of several types of elements at risk (bridge, road, building and crop) were gathered and integrated into a GIS layer, with the vulnerability model of each elements at risk applied. Through studying the historical hazard events of the 30 villages, numerical simulations of debris flow hazards with different magnitudes (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years return period) were conducted, the economic losses and fatalities of each scenario were calculated for each creek. When taking annual exceeding probability into account, the annual total risk of each creek was calculated, and the results displayed on a debris flow risk map. The number of fatalities and frequency were calculated, and the F-N curves of 106 creeks were provided. For F-N curves, the individual risk to life per year of 1.0E-04 and slope of 1, which matched with international standards, were considered to be an acceptable risk. Applying the results of the 106 creeks onto the F-N curve, they were divided into 3 categories: Unacceptable, ALARP (As Low As Reasonable Practicable) and

  7. Numerical analysis on hydrogen stratification and post-inerting of hydrogen risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Cheng; Tong, Lili; Cao, Xuewu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A three-dimensional computational model was built and the applicability was discussed. • The formation of helium stratification was further studied. • Three influencing factors on the post-inerting of hydrogen risk were analyzed. - Abstract: In the case of severe accidents, the risk of hydrogen explosion threatens the integrity of the nuclear reactor containment. According to nuclear regulations, hydrogen control is required to ensure the safe operation of the nuclear reactor. In this study, the method of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been applied to analyze process of hydrogen stratification and the post-inerting of hydrogen risk in the Large-Scale Gas Mixing Facility. A three-dimensional computational model was built and the applicability of different turbulence models was discussed. The result shows that the helium concentration calculated by the standard k–ε turbulence model is closest to the experiment data. Through analyzing the formation of helium stratification at different injection velocities, it is found that when the injection mass flow is constant and the injection velocity of helium increases, the mixture of helium and air is enhanced while there is rarely influence on the formation of helium stratification. In addition, the influences of mass flow rate, injection location and direction and inert gas on the post-inerting of hydrogen risk have been analyzed and the results are as follows: with the increasing of mass flow rate, the mitigation effect of nitrogen on hydrogen risk will be further improved; there is an obvious local difference between the mitigation effects of nitrogen on hydrogen risk in different injection directions and locations; when the inert gas is injected at the same mass flow rate, the mitigation effect of steam on hydrogen risk is better than that of nitrogen. This study can provide technical support for the mitigation of hydrogen risk in the small LWR containment.

  8. Psychological factors as risk factors for poor hip function after total hip arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benditz A

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Achim Benditz,1 Petra Jansen,2 Jan Schaible,1 Christina Roll,1 Joachim Grifka,1 Jürgen Götz1 1Department of Orthopedics, University Medical Center Regensburg, Asklepios Klinikum Bad Abbach, Bad Abbach, 2Department of Sport Science, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany Abstract: Recovery after total hip arthroplasty (THA is influenced by several psychological aspects, such as depression, anxiety, resilience, and personality traits. We hypothesized that preoperative depression impedes early functional outcome after THA (primary outcome measure. Additional objectives were perioperative changes in the psychological status and their influence on perioperative outcome. This observational study analyzed depression, anxiety, resilience, and personality traits in 50 patients after primary unilateral THA. Hip functionality was measured by means of the Harris Hip Score. Depression, state anxiety, and resilience were evaluated preoperatively as well as 1 and 5 weeks postoperatively. Trait anxiety and personality traits were measured once preoperatively. Patients with low depression and anxiety levels had significantly better outcomes with respect to early hip functionality. Resilience and personality traits did not relate to hip functionality. Depression and state anxiety levels significantly decreased within the 5-week stay in the acute and rehabilitation clinic, whereas resilience remained at the same level. Our study suggests that low depression and anxiety levels are positively related to early functionality after THA. Therefore, perioperative measurements of these factors seem to be useful to provide the best support for patients with risk factors. Keywords: total hip arthroplasty, psychological factors, depression, state anxiety, trait anxiety, resilience, personality traits

  9. Total variation regularization in measurement and image space for PET reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, M

    2014-09-18

    © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd. The aim of this paper is to test and analyse a novel technique for image reconstruction in positron emission tomography, which is based on (total variation) regularization on both the image space and the projection space. We formulate our variational problem considering both total variation penalty terms on the image and on an idealized sinogram to be reconstructed from a given Poisson distributed noisy sinogram. We prove existence, uniqueness and stability results for the proposed model and provide some analytical insight into the structures favoured by joint regularization. For the numerical solution of the corresponding discretized problem we employ the split Bregman algorithm and extensively test the approach in comparison to standard total variation regularization on the image. The numerical results show that an additional penalty on the sinogram performs better on reconstructing images with thin structures.

  10. Biological correlates of extinction risk in bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kate E; Purvis, Andy; Gittleman, John L

    2003-04-01

    We investigated patterns and processes of extinction and threat in bats using a multivariate phylogenetic comparative approach. Of nearly 1,000 species worldwide, 239 are considered threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) and 12 are extinct. Small geographic ranges and low wing aspect ratios are independently found to predict extinction risk in bats, which explains 48% of the total variance in IUCN assessments of threat. The pattern and correlates of extinction risk in the two bat suborders are significantly different. A higher proportion (4%) of megachiropteran species have gone extinct in the last 500 years than microchiropteran bats (0.3%), and a higher proportion is currently at risk of extinction (Megachiroptera: 34%; Microchiroptera: 22%). While correlates of microchiropteran extinction risk are the same as in the order as a whole, megachiropteran extinction is correlated more with reproductive rate and less with wing morphology. Bat extinction risk is not randomly distributed phylogenetically: closely related species have more similar levels of threat than would be expected if extinction risk were random. Given the unbalanced nature of the evolutionary diversification of bats, it is probable that the amount of phylogenetic diversity lost if currently threatened taxa disappear may be greater than in other clades with numerically more threatened species.

  11. Revision total hip arthoplasty: factors associated with re-revision surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatod, Monti; Cafri, Guy; Inacio, Maria C S; Schepps, Alan L; Paxton, Elizabeth W; Bini, Stefano A

    2015-03-04

    The survivorship of implants after revision total hip arthroplasty and risk factors associated with re-revision are not well defined. We evaluated the re-revision rate with use of the institutional total joint replacement registry. The purpose of this study was to determine patient, implant, and surgeon factors associated with re-revision total hip arthroplasty. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The total joint replacement registry was used to identify patients who had undergone revision total hip arthroplasty for aseptic reasons from April 1, 2001, to December 31, 2010. The end point of interest was re-revision total hip arthroplasty. Risk factors evaluated for re-revision total hip arthroplasty included: patient risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, race, and general health status), implant risk factors (fixation type, bearing surface, femoral head size, and component replacement), and surgeon risk factors (volume and experience). A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used. Six hundred and twenty-nine revision total hip arthroplasties with sixty-three (10%) re-revisions were evaluated. The mean cohort age (and standard deviation) was 57.0 ± 12.4 years, the mean body mass index (and standard deviation) was 29.5 ± 6.1 kg/m(2), and most of the patients were women (64.5%) and white (81.9%) and had an American Society of Anesthesiologists score of associated with the risk of re-revision. For every ten-year increase in patient age, the hazard ratio for re-revision decreases by a factor of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.90). For every five revision surgical procedures performed by a surgeon, the risk of revision decreases by a factor of 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 0.99). At the time of revision, a new or retained cemented femoral implant or all-cemented hip implant increases the risk of revision by a factor of 3.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 8.38) relative to a retained or new uncemented hip implant. A ceramic on a

  12. Total volume versus bouts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinapaw, Mai; Klakk, Heidi; Møller, Niels Christian

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Examine the prospective relationship of total volume versus bouts of sedentary behaviour (SB) and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) with cardiometabolic risk in children. In addition, the moderating effects of weight status and MVPA were explored. SUBJECTS....../METHODS: Longitudinal study including 454 primary school children (mean age 10.3 years). Total volume and bouts (i.e. ≥10 min consecutive minutes) of MVPA and SB were assessed by accelerometry in Nov 2009/Jan 2010 (T1) and Aug/Oct 2010 (T2). Triglycerides, total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio (TC:HDLC ratio......, with or without mutual adjustments between MVPA and SB. The moderating effects of weight status and MVPA (for SB only) were examined by adding interaction terms. RESULTS: Children engaged daily in about 60 min of total MVPA and 0-15 min/week in MVPA bouts. Mean total sedentary time was around 7 h/day with over 3...

  13. Numerical relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piran, T.

    1982-01-01

    There are many recent developments in numerical relativity, but there remain important unsolved theoretical and practical problems. The author reviews existing numerical approaches to solution of the exact Einstein equations. A framework for classification and comparison of different numerical schemes is presented. Recent numerical codes are compared using this framework. The discussion focuses on new developments and on currently open questions, excluding a review of numerical techniques. (Auth.)

  14. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  15. Coronary collateral circulation in patients with chronic coronary total occlusion; its relationship with cardiac risk markers and SYNTAX score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börekçi, A; Gür, M; Şeker, T; Baykan, A O; Özaltun, B; Karakoyun, S; Karakurt, A; Türkoğlu, C; Makça, I; Çaylı, M

    2015-09-01

    Compared to patients without a collateral supply, long-term cardiac mortality is reduced in patients with well-developed coronary collateral circulation (CCC). Cardiovascular risk markers, such as N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are independent predictors for cardiovascular mortality. The main goal of this study was to examine the relationship between CCC and cardiovascular risk markers. We prospectively enrolled 427 stable coronary artery disease patients with chronic total occlusion (mean age: 57.5±11.1 years). The patients were divided into two groups, according to their Rentrop scores: (a) poorly developed CCC group (Rentrop 0 and 1) and (b) well-developed CCC group (Rentrop 2 and 3). NT-proBNP, hs-CRP, hs-cTnT, uric acid and other biochemical markers were also measured. The SYNTAX score was calculated for all patients. The patients in the poorly developed CCC group had higher frequencies of diabetes and hypertension (prisk markers, such as NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT and hs-CRP are independently associated with CCC in stable coronary artery disease with chronic total occlusion. © The Author(s) 2014.

  16. Numerical optimization of die geometry in open die forging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Peter; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Bay, Niels

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with numerical optimization of open die forging of large metallic ingots made by casting implying risk of defects, e.g. central pores. Different material hardening properties and die geometries are combined in order to investigate, which geometry gives rise to maximum closure...

  17. The numerical solution of total variation minimization problems in image processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogel, C.R.; Oman, M.E. [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Consider the minimization of penalized least squares functionals of the form: f(u) = 1/2 ({parallel}Au {minus} z{parallel}){sup 2} + {alpha}{integral}{sub {Omega}}{vert_bar}{del}u{vert_bar}dx. Here A is a bounded linear operator, z represents data, {parallel} {center_dot} {parallel} is a Hilbert space norm, {alpha} is a positive parameter, {integral}{sub {Omega}}{vert_bar}{del}u{vert_bar} dx represents the total variation (TV) of a function u {element_of} BV ({Omega}), the class of functions of bounded variation on a bounded region {Omega}, and {vert_bar} {center_dot} {vert_bar} denotes Euclidean norm. In image processing, u represents an image which is to be recovered from noisy data z. Certain {open_quotes}blurring processes{close_quotes} may be represented by the action of an operator A on the image u.

  18. Combined effects of DNA methyltransferase 1 and 3A polymorphisms and urinary total arsenic levels on the risk for clear cell renal cell carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Shu-Mei [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Huang, Chao-Yuan [Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Shiue, Horng-Sheng [Department of Chinese Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan (China); Pu, Yeong-Shiau [Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsieh, Yi-Hsun; Chen, Wei-Jen [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Lin, Ying-Chin [Department of Family Medicine, Shung Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Health Examination, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Division of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsueh, Yu-Mei, E-mail: ymhsueh@tmu.edu.tw [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China)

    2016-08-15

    Our previous study showed that high urinary total arsenic levels were associated with higher odds ratio (OR) for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of DNA methyltransferases (DNMTs) might influence DNMT enzyme activity associated with tumorigenesis. In this study, we investigated the association of five SNPs from DNMT1 (rs8101626 and rs2228611), DNMT3A (rs34048824 and rs1550117), and DNMT3B (rs1569686) with the risk of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). We also examined the combined effects of DNMT genotypes and urinary arsenic levels on ccRCC risk. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study, which included 293 subjects with ccRCC and 293 age- and gender-matched controls. The urinary arsenic species were determined by a high performance liquid chromatography-linked hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry. Genotypes were investigated using polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism analyses. We observed that the DNMT1 rs8101626 G/G genotype was significantly associated with reduced odds ratio (OR) of ccRCC [OR = 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14–0.99]. Subjects with concurrent DNMT1 rs8101626 A/A + A/G and DNMT3A rs34048824 T/T + T/C genotypes had significantly higher OR for ccRCC [OR = 2.88, 95% CI 1.44–5.77]. Participants with the high-risk genotype of DNMT1 rs8101626 and DNMT3A rs34048824 with concurrently high urinary total arsenic levels had even higher OR of ccRCC in a dose-response manner. This is the first study to evaluate variant DNMT1 rs8101626 and DNMT3A rs34048824 genotypes that modify the arsenic-related ccRCC risk in a geographic area without significant arsenic exposure in Taiwan. - Highlights: • High urinary total arsenic level or polymorphism of DNMT1 increased the OR of ccRCC. • High risk genotypes of combination of DNMT1 and DNMT3A increased the OR of ccRCC. • A joint effect of urinary total arsenic level and DNMTs genotypes may affect ccRCC.

  19. Stratifying risk in chronic kidney disease: an observational study of UK guidelines for measuring total proteinuria and albuminuria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Methven, S; Traynor, J P; Hair, M D; St J O'Reilly, D; Deighan, C J; MacGregor, M S

    2011-08-01

    Proteinuria predicts poor renal and cardiovascular outcomes. Some guidelines recommend measuring proteinuria using albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR), while others recommend total protein:creatinine ratio (TPCR). To compare renal outcomes and mortality in the populations identified by these different recommendations. Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. Baseline ACR and TPCR measurements were obtained from 5586 patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) attending a Scottish hospital nephrology clinic. The cohort was divided into three groups with concordant results by ACR and TPCR (no proteinuria; low proteinuria; significant proteinuria) and one group with discordant results (significant proteinuria with TPCR, but not ACR). Outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards models. Median follow-up was 3.5 years [interquartile range (IQR) 2.1-6.0]; 844 (15%) died at 3.0 years (IQR 1.8-4.7) and 468 (8%) started renal replacement therapy (RRT) at 1.7 years (IQR 0.6-3.4). Proteinuria was associated with a substantially increased risk of RRT and death. Patients with significant proteinuria by TPCR, but not ACR (n = 231) had high renal risk, and the highest all-cause mortality (log-rank P < 0.001). With multivariate analysis the risk fell below those with significant proteinuria with concordant results by ACR and TPCR but remained considerably higher than those without significant proteinuria. Proteinuria screening with TPCR identifies an additional 16% of patients with significant proteinuria, not identified using ACR. This subgroup has high renal risk, and high risk of all-cause mortality and therefore warrant identification. Guideline recommendations on proteinuria screening in CKD should be reconsidered.

  20. Incidence and Risk Factors for Blood Transfusion in Total Joint Arthroplasty: Analysis of a Statewide Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slover, James; Lavery, Jessica A; Schwarzkopf, Ran; Iorio, Richard; Bosco, Joseph; Gold, Heather T

    2017-09-01

    Significant attempts have been made to adopt practices to minimize blood transfusion after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) because of transfusion cost and potential negative clinical consequences including allergic reactions, transfusion-related lung injuries, and immunomodulatory effects. We aimed to evaluate risk factors for blood transfusion in a large cohort of TJA patients. We used the all-payer California Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data from 2006 to 2011 to examine the trends in utilization of blood transfusion among arthroplasty patients (n = 320,746). We performed descriptive analyses and multivariate logistic regression clustered by hospital, controlling for Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index, age, insurance type (Medicaid vs others), gender, procedure year, and race/ethnicity. Eighteen percent (n = 59,038) of TJA patients underwent blood transfusion during their surgery, from 15% with single knee to 45% for bilateral hip arthroplasty. Multivariate analysis indicated that compared with the referent category of single knee arthroplasty, single hip had a significantly higher odds of blood transfusion (odds ratio [OR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.68-1.83), as did bilateral knee (OR, 3.57; 95% CI, 3.20-3.98) and bilateral hip arthroplasty (OR, 6.17; 95% CI, 4.85-7.85). Increasing age (eg, age ≥80 years; OR, 2.99; 95% CI, 2.82-3.17), Medicaid insurance (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.27-1.45), higher comorbidity index (eg, score of ≥3; OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 2.22-2.45), and females (OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.70-1.80) all had significantly higher odds of blood transfusion after TJA. Primary hip arthroplasties have significantly greater risk of transfusion than knee arthroplasties, and bilateral procedures have even greater risk, especially for hips. These factors should be considered when evaluating the risk for blood transfusions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Oil characterisation: assessment of composition, risks, degradation and remediation potential of total petroleum hydrocarbons in soil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lookman, R.; Vanermen, G.; Van De Weghe, H.; Gemoets, J. [Vito, Mol (Belgium); Van der Sterren, G.; Alphenaar, A. [TTE, Deventer (Netherlands)

    2005-07-01

    Several methods are available for the characterization of petroleum hydrocarbons. The TPHCWG (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group) developed a method based on a silica column separation of aromatics and aliphatics and a GC-FID subdivision into equivalent-carbon fractions (EC) ('TPH-method'). This method was mainly developed for assessing human risks of oil compounds. Within NOBIS (Dutch Research program Biological In-situ Remediation), another method was developed based upon an equilibrium-experiment of the oil-polluted soil with water (column recirculation), which was further developed by TTE ('TTE-method'). This method uses measured water solubilities of individual oil components and GC-retention times yielding a subdivision of the hydrocarbons into compound classes that are relevant for assessing the remediation potential of the specific oil pollution. In this paper we present results of a research project in which we developed a new method, the 'OK-method' that combines these two procedures and allows a complete characterisation of the oil in terms of composition, (human) risks, volatility, solubility, plume behaviour (migration velocities of the soluble components) and aerobic degradation potential. (authors)

  2. Smoking, body weight, physical exercise, and risk of lower limb total joint replacement in a population-based cohort of men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatzaganian, George; Ryan, Philip; Norman, Paul E; Davidson, David C; Hiller, Janet E

    2011-08-01

    To assess the associations of smoking, body weight, and physical activity with risk of undergoing total joint replacement (TJR) in a population-based cohort of men. A cohort study of 11,388 men that integrated clinical data with hospital morbidity data and mortality records was undertaken. The risk of undergoing TJR was modeled on baseline weight, height, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, years of smoking, and exercise in 3 separate age groups, using Cox proportional hazards regressions and competing risk regressions (CRRs). Dose-response relationships between weight and risk of TJR and between smoking and risk of TJR were observed. Being overweight independently increased the risk of TJR, while smoking lowered the risk. The decreased risk among smokers was demonstrated in both Cox and CRR models and became apparent after 23 years of exposure. Men who were in the highest quartile (≥48 years of smoking) were 42-51% less likely to undergo TJR than men who had never smoked. Tests for trend in the log hazard ratios (HRs) across both smoking and weight quantiles yielded significant P values. Vigorous exercise increased the hazard of TJR; however, the association reached statistical significance only in the 70-74-year-old age group (adjusted HR 1.64 [95% confidence interval 1.19-2.24]). Adjusting for Deyo-Charlson Index or Elixhauser's comorbidity measures did not eliminate these associations. Our findings indicate that being overweight and reporting vigorous physical activity increase the risk of TJR. This study is the first to demonstrate a strong inverse dose-response relationship between duration of smoking and risk of TJR. More research is needed to better understand the role of smoking in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Rheumatology.

  3. Numerical relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Shibata, Masaru

    2016-01-01

    This book is composed of two parts: First part describes basics in numerical relativity, that is, the formulations and methods for a solution of Einstein's equation and general relativistic matter field equations. This part will be helpful for beginners of numerical relativity who would like to understand the content of numerical relativity and its background. The second part focuses on the application of numerical relativity. A wide variety of scientific numerical results are introduced focusing in particular on the merger of binary neutron stars and black holes.

  4. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Khabaza, I M

    1960-01-01

    Numerical Analysis is an elementary introduction to numerical analysis, its applications, limitations, and pitfalls. Methods suitable for digital computers are emphasized, but some desk computations are also described. Topics covered range from the use of digital computers in numerical work to errors in computations using desk machines, finite difference methods, and numerical solution of ordinary differential equations. This book is comprised of eight chapters and begins with an overview of the importance of digital computers in numerical analysis, followed by a discussion on errors in comput

  5. Fractionated total lymphoid irradiation as preparative immunosuppression in high risk renal transplantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najarian, J.S.; Ferguson, R.M.; Sutherland, D.E.; Slavin, S.; Kim, T.; Kersey, J.; Simmons, R.L.

    1982-01-01

    Twenty-two patients at high risk to reject renal allografts have been treated with fractionated total lymphoid irradiation (FTLI) prior to transplantation of primary (2), secondary (16) or tertiary (4) renal allografts. All patients undergoing retransplantation had rapidly rejected previous grafts. At 24 months following transplantation, 72% of grafts were functioning in the TLI group compared with a 38% graft function in an historical control group of recipients receiving secondary or tertiary grafts and treated with conventional immunosuppression. Important variables in determining success of transplantation following fractionated TLI include the dose of TLI, the interval from radiation to transplantation, and maintenance post-transplant immunosuppressive therapy. Optimal results were achieved with 2500 rads delivered in 100 rad fractions followed by transplantation within two weeks, and a tapering prednisone schedule and maintenance azathioprine post-transplantation. Seventeen patients had significant complications of the radiation treatment and there was one death, prior to transplantation, associated with pneumonitis. In vitro assessment of immune function demonstrated marked peripheral T cell depletion and loss of in vitro responsiveness to mitogen and allogeneic stimulation following FTLI. The administration of donor bone marrow at the time of transplantation did not produce chimerism. The results suggest that when properly utilized FTLI can produce effective adjunctive immunosuppression for clinical transplantation

  6. STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

    2015-09-01

    Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

  7. Identification of Genetic Loci Jointly Influencing Schizophrenia Risk and the Cognitive Traits of Verbal-Numerical Reasoning, Reaction Time, and General Cognitive Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeland, Olav B; Frei, Oleksandr; Kauppi, Karolina; Hill, W David; Li, Wen; Wang, Yunpeng; Krull, Florian; Bettella, Francesco; Eriksen, Jon A; Witoelar, Aree; Davies, Gail; Fan, Chun C; Thompson, Wesley K; Lam, Max; Lencz, Todd; Chen, Chi-Hua; Ueland, Torill; Jönsson, Erik G; Djurovic, Srdjan; Deary, Ian J; Dale, Anders M; Andreassen, Ole A

    2017-10-01

    Schizophrenia is associated with widespread cognitive impairments. Although cognitive deficits are one of the factors most strongly associated with functional outcome in schizophrenia, current treatment strategies largely fail to ameliorate these impairments. To develop more efficient treatment strategies in patients with schizophrenia, a better understanding of the pathogenesis of these cognitive deficits is needed. Accumulating evidence indicates that genetic risk of schizophrenia may contribute to cognitive dysfunction. To identify genomic regions jointly influencing schizophrenia and the cognitive domains of reaction time and verbal-numerical reasoning, as well as general cognitive function, a phenotype that captures the shared variation in performance across cognitive domains. Combining data from genome-wide association studies from multiple phenotypes using conditional false discovery rate analysis provides increased power to discover genetic variants and could elucidate shared molecular genetic mechanisms. Data from the following genome-wide association studies, published from July 24, 2014, to January 17, 2017, were combined: schizophrenia in the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium cohort (n = 79 757 [cases, 34 486; controls, 45 271]); verbal-numerical reasoning (n = 36 035) and reaction time (n = 111 483) in the UK Biobank cohort; and general cognitive function in CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) (n = 53 949) and COGENT (Cognitive Genomics Consortium) (n = 27 888). Genetic loci identified by conditional false discovery rate analysis. Brain messenger RNA expression and brain expression quantitative trait locus functionality were determined. Among the participants in the genome-wide association studies, 21 loci jointly influencing schizophrenia and cognitive traits were identified: 2 loci shared between schizophrenia and verbal-numerical reasoning, 6 loci shared between schizophrenia and

  8. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

  9. Benefit–risk assessment of rivaroxaban versus enoxaparin for the prevention of venous thromboembolism after total hip or knee arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levitan B

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Bennett Levitan,1 Zhong Yuan,1 Alexander GG Turpie,2 Richard J Friedman,3 Martin Homering,4 Jesse A Berlin,1 Scott D Berkowitz,5 Rachel B Weinstein,1 Peter M DiBattiste61Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Titusville, NJ, USA; 2Hamilton Health Sciences McMaster Clinic, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 3Charleston Orthopaedic Associates, Charleston, SC, USA; 4Bayer HealthCare, Berlin, Germany; 5Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Whippany, NJ, USA; 6Janssen Research & Development, Raritan, NJ, USAPurpose: Venous thromboembolism is a common complication after major orthopedic surgery. When prescribing anticoagulant prophylaxis, clinicians weigh the benefits of thromboprophylaxis against bleeding risk and other adverse events. Previous benefit–risk analyses of the REgulation of Coagulation in ORthopaedic surgery to prevent Deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism (RECORD randomized clinical studies of rivaroxaban versus enoxaparin after total hip (THA or knee (TKA arthroplasty generally used pooled THA and TKA results, counted fatal bleeding as both an efficacy and a safety event, and included the active and placebo-controlled portions of RECORD2, which might confound benefit–risk assessments. We conducted a post hoc analysis without these constraints to assess benefit–risk for rivaroxaban versus enoxaparin in the RECORD studies.Patients and methods: Data from the safety population of the two THA and two TKA studies were pooled separately. The primary analysis compared the temporal course of event rates and rate differences between rivaroxaban and enoxaparin prophylaxis for symptomatic venous thromboembolism plus all-cause mortality (efficacy events versus nonfatal major bleeding (safety events. Additionally, these rates were used to derive measures of net clinical benefit, number needed to treat (NNT, and number needed to harm (NNH for these two end points.Results: After THA or TKA, and compared with enoxaparin, rivaroxaban

  10. Analytical and numerical study of the salinity intrusion in the Sebou river estuary (Morocco) - effect of the "Super Blood Moon" (total lunar eclipse) of 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddout, Soufiane; Igouzal, Mohammed; Maslouhi, Abdellatif

    2016-09-01

    The longitudinal variation of salinity and the maximum salinity intrusion length in an alluvial estuary are important environmental concerns for policy makers and managers since they influence water quality, water utilization and agricultural development in estuarine environments and the potential use of water resources in general. The supermoon total lunar eclipse is a rare event. According to NASA, they have only occurred 5 times in the 1900s - in 1910, 1928, 1946, 1964 and 1982. After the 28 September 2015 total lunar eclipse, a Super Blood Moon eclipse will not recur before 8 October 2033. In this paper, for the first time, the impact of the combination of a supermoon and a total lunar eclipse on the salinity intrusion along an estuary is studied. The 28 September 2015 supermoon total lunar eclipse is the focus of this study and the Sebou river estuary (Morocco) is used as an application area. The Sebou estuary is an area with high agricultural potential, is becoming one of the most important industrial zones in Morocco and it is experiencing a salt intrusion problem. Hydrodynamic equations for tidal wave propagation coupled with the Savenije theory and a numerical salinity transport model (HEC-RAS software "Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System") are applied to study the impact of the supermoon total lunar eclipse on the salinity intrusion. Intensive salinity measurements during this extreme event were recorded along the Sebou estuary. Measurements showed a modification of the shape of axial salinity profiles and a notable water elevation rise, compared with normal situations. The two optimization parameters (Van der Burgh's and dispersion coefficients) of the analytical model are estimated based on the Levenberg-Marquardt's algorithm (i.e., solving nonlinear least-squares problems). The salinity transport model was calibrated and validated using field data. The results show that the two models described very well the salt intrusion during the

  11. High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimpou, P; Odén, A; Simonsson, T; Wilhelmsen, L; Landin-Wilhelmsen, K

    2011-05-01

    Risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were evaluated in 1,396 men and women for a period of 20 years. Serum total cholesterol was found to be an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term risk factors for osteoporotic fracture. A population random sample of men and women aged 25-64 years (the Gothenburg WHO MONICA project, N = 1,396, 53% women) was studied prospectively. The 1985 baseline examination recorded physical activity at work and during leisure time, psychological stress, smoking habits, coffee consumption, BMI, waist/hip ratio, blood pressure, total, HDL and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fibrinogen. Osteoporotic fractures over a period of 20 years were retrieved from the Gothenburg hospital registers. Poisson regression was used to analyze the predictive power for osteoporotic fracture of each risk factor. A total number of 258 osteoporotic fractures occurred in 143 participants (10.2%). As expected, we found that previous fracture, smoking, coffee consumption, and lower BMI each increase the risk for osteoporotic fracture independently of age and sex. More unexpectedly, we found that the gradient of risk of serum total cholesterol to predict osteoporotic fracture significantly increases over time (p = 0.0377). Serum total cholesterol is an independent osteoporotic fracture risk factor whose predictive power improves with time. High serum total cholesterol is a long-term cause of osteoporotic fracture.

  12. Risk of contralateral avascular necrosis (AVN) after total hip arthroplasty (THA) for non-traumatic AVN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goker, Berna; Block, Joel A

    2006-01-01

    The risk of developing bilateral disease progressing to total hip arthroplasty (THA) among patients who undergo unilateral THA for non-traumatic avascular necrosis (AVN) remains poorly understood. An analysis of the time-course to contralateral THA, as well as the effects of underlying AVN risk factors, is presented. Forty-seven consecutive patients who underwent THA for AVN were evaluated. Peri-operative and annual post-operative antero-posterior pelvis radiographs were examined for evidence of contralateral involvement. Patient age, weight, height, underlying AVN risk factor(s), date of onset of contralateral hip pain if occurred, and date of contralateral THA if performed, were recorded. Bone scan, computerized tomography and magnetic resonance imaging data were utilized when available. Twenty-one patients (46.6%) underwent contralateral THA for AVN within a median of 9 months after the initial THA (range 0-93, interquartile range 28.5 months). The median follow-up for patients without contralateral THA was 75 months (range 3-109, interquartile range 69 months). Thirty-four patients had radiographic findings of contralateral AVN at study entry; 25 were symptomatic bilaterally at entry and 7 developed contralateral symptoms within a mean time of 12 months (median 10 months, interquartile range 12 months). None of the 13 patients who were free of radiographic evidence of contralateral AVN at study entry developed evidence of AVN during the follow-up. AVN associated with glucocorticoid use was more likely to manifest as bilateral disease than either idiopathic AVN or ethanol-associated AVN (P=0.02 and P=0.03 respectively). Radiographically-evident AVN in the contralateral hip at THA is unlikely to remain asymptomatic for a prolonged period of time. Conversely, asymptomatic contralateral hips without radiographic evidence of AVN are unlikely to develop clinically significant AVN.

  13. A combined experimental and numerical study on upper airway dosimetry of inhaled nanoparticles from an electrical discharge machine shop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin; Shang, Yidan; Chen, Rui; Bai, Ru; Chen, Chunying; Inthavong, Kiao; Tu, Jiyuan

    2017-07-12

    Exposure to nanoparticles in the workplace is a health concern to occupational workers with increased risk of developing respiratory, cardiovascular, and neurological disorders. Based on animal inhalation study and human lung tumor risk extrapolation, current authoritative recommendations on exposure limits are either on total mass or number concentrations. Effects of particle size distribution and the implication to regional airway dosages are not elaborated. Real time production of particle concentration and size distribution in the range from 5.52 to 98.2 nm were recorded in a wire-cut electrical discharge machine shop (WEDM) during a typical working day. Under the realistic exposure condition, human inhalation simulations were performed in a physiologically realistic nasal and upper airway replica. The combined experimental and numerical study is the first to establish a realistic exposure condition, and under which, detailed dose metric studies can be performed. In addition to mass concentration guided exposure limit, inhalation risks to nano-pollutant were reexamined accounting for the actual particle size distribution and deposition statistics. Detailed dosimetries of the inhaled nano-pollutants in human nasal and upper airways with respect to particle number, mass and surface area were discussed, and empirical equations were developed. An astonishing enhancement of human airway dosages were detected by current combined experimental and numerical study in the WEDM machine shop. Up to 33 folds in mass, 27 folds in surface area and 8 folds in number dosages were detected during working hours in comparison to the background dosimetry measured at midnight. The real time particle concentration measurement showed substantial emission of nano-pollutants by WEDM machining activity, and the combined experimental and numerical study provided extraordinary details on human inhalation dosimetry. It was found out that human inhalation dosimetry was extremely sensitive

  14. Numerical study of emergency cryogenics gas relief into confined spaces

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The presented work focuses on the risk analysis and the consequences of the unexpected leak to the tunnel of cryogenics gases. Formation of the gas mixture and its propagation along tunnels is an important issue for the safe operation of cryogenic machines, including superconducting accelerators or free electron lasers. As the cryogenics gas the helium and argon will be considered. A minimal numerical model will be presented and discussed. Series of numerical results related to emergency helium relief to the CERN tunnel and related to unexpected leak of the argon to an underground tunnel, will be shown. The numerical results will show temperature distribution, oxygen deficiency and gas cloud propagation in function of intensity of the leak and intensity of the ventilation.

  15. Examination of the relation between periodontal health status and cardiovascular risk factors: serum total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and plasma fibrinogen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, T; Trevisan, M; Genco, R J; Falkner, K L; Dorn, J P; Sempos, C T

    2000-02-01

    Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994), the authors examined the relation between periodontal health and cardiovascular risk factors: serum total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and plasma fibrinogen. A total of 10,146 participants were included in the analyses of cholesterol and C-reactive protein and 4,461 in the analyses of fibrinogen. Periodontal health indicators included the gingival bleeding index, calculus index, and periodontal disease status (defined by pocket depth and attachment loss). While cholesterol and fibrinogen were analyzed as continuous variables, C-reactive protein was dichotomized into two levels. The results show a significant relation between indicators of poor periodontal status and increased C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. The association between periodontal status and total cholesterol level is much weaker. No consistent association between periodontal status and high density lipoprotein cholesterol was detectable. Similar patterns of association were observed for participants aged 17-54 years and those 55 years and older. In conclusion, this study suggests that total cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen are possible intermediate factors that may link periodontal disease to elevated cardiovascular risk.

  16. NASA total quality management 1990 accomplishments report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    NASA's efforts in Total Quality Management are based on continuous improvement and serve as a foundation for NASA's present and future endeavors. Given here are numerous examples of quality strategies that have proven effective and efficient in a time when cost reduction is critical. These accomplishment benefit our Agency and help to achieve our primary goal, keeping American in the forefront of the aerospace industry.

  17. Caracterización del riesgo familiar total en las familias con adultos mayores funcionales, sector de Patio Bonito, Bogotá, 2005 Characterization of the total family risk among families with functional elder adults, in the area of "Patio Bonito", in Bogotá, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAROL IVONNE VELÁSQUEZ VELÁSQUEZ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artículo presenta parte de los resultados del proyecto de investigación Caracterización de familias beneficiarias del programa Atención para el bienestar del adulto mayor en situación de pobreza del Centro Operativo Local de Kennedy, financiado por la División de Investigación Bogotá, en el cual se describen las características y el riesgo familiar total de 72 familias con adultos mayores funcionales, mediante el uso del instrumento RFT 7-70, elaborado por Pilar Amaya. La investigación muestra las características de la estructura familiar, la calificación similar del riesgo familiar total alto y medio (34.7% y las subcategorías más frecuentes en dichas familias, resultados que pueden ser útiles en el momento de planear y desarrollar programas de salud familiar con enfoque de riesgoThis article is generated based on the results of a master's degree research that unveiled the characteristics of the total family risk among families with functional elder adults who are beneficiaries of the Care Program for the wellbeing of the elderly who are poor, of the Local Health Center, the "Centro Operativo Local de Kennedy", i.e. residents in the area of "Patio Bonito". Data was obtained using the RFT 7-70 instrument, designed by Dr. Pilar Amaya. The research showed in general terms the characteristics of family structures and the tabulation of total family risks having as high some 34,7%, as medium some 34,7% among the group of families; also it enable one to identify the sub categories and risk factor that are most frequent in such family systems, which may be useful as a tool when planning and carrying out health programs for families according to risk

  18. Characterization of the total family risk among families with functional elder adults, in the area of "Patio Bonito", in Bogotá, 2005 Caracterización del riesgo familiar total en las familias con adultos mayores funcionales, sector de Patio Bonito, Bogotá, 20051

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VELÁSQUEZ VELÁSQUEZ CAROL IVONNE

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is generated based on the results of a master's degree research that unveiled the characteristics of the total family risk among families with functional elder adults who are beneficiaries of the Care Program for the wellbeing of the elderly who are poor, of the Local Health Center, the "Centro Operativo Local de Kennedy", i.e. residents in the area of "Patio Bonito". Data was obtained using the RFT 7-70 instrument, designed by Dr. Pilar Amaya. The research showed in general terms the characteristics of family structures and the tabulation of total family risks having as high some 34,7%, as medium some 34,7% among the group of families; also it enable one to identify the sub categories and risk factor that are most frequent in such family systems, which may be useful as a tool when planning and carrying out health programs for families according to risk.Este artículo presenta parte de los resultados del proyecto de investigación Caracterización de familias beneficiarias del programa Atención para el bienestar del adulto mayor en situación de pobreza del Centro Operativo Local de Kennedy, financiado por la División de Investigación Bogotá, en el cual se describen las características y el riesgo familiar total de 72 familias con adultos mayores funcionales, mediante el uso del instrumento RFT 7-70, elaborado por Pilar Amaya. La investigación muestra las características de la estructura familiar, la calificación similar del riesgo familiar total alto y medio (34.7% y las subcategorías más frecuentes en dichas familias, resultados que pueden ser útiles en el momento de planear y desarrollar programas de salud familiar con enfoque de riesgo.

  19. Does IQ explain socio-economic differentials in total and cardiovascular disease mortality? Comparison with the explanatory power of traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G David; Shipley, Martin J; Dundas, Ruth

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the explanatory power of intelligence (IQ) compared with traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the relationship of socio-economic disadvantage with total and CVD mortality, that is the extent to which IQ may account for the variance in this ......The aim of this study was to examine the explanatory power of intelligence (IQ) compared with traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the relationship of socio-economic disadvantage with total and CVD mortality, that is the extent to which IQ may account for the variance...

  20. 12 CFR 932.2 - Total capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Total capital requirement. 932.2 Section 932.2 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.2 Total capital requirement. (a) Each Bank shall...

  1. Numerical methods for characterization of synchrotron radiation based on the Wigner function method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Tanaka

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerical characterization of synchrotron radiation based on the Wigner function method is explored in order to accurately evaluate the light source performance. A number of numerical methods to compute the Wigner functions for typical synchrotron radiation sources such as bending magnets, undulators and wigglers, are presented, which significantly improve the computation efficiency and reduce the total computation time. As a practical example of the numerical characterization, optimization of betatron functions to maximize the brilliance of undulator radiation is discussed.

  2. Mammography and radiation risk; Mammographie und Strahlenrisiko

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, H. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Biophysik und Strahlenbiologie

    1998-10-01

    Breast cancer is the most frequent malignant neoplasia among women in Germany. The use of mammography as the most relevant diagnostic procedure has increased rapidly over the last decade. Radiation risks associated with mammography may be estimated from the results of numerous epidemiological studies providing risk coefficients for breast cancer in relation to age at exposure. Various calculations can be performed using the risk coefficients. For instance, a single mammography examination (bilateral, two views of each breast) of a women aged 45 may enhance the risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime numerically from about 12% of 12.0036%. This increase in risk is lower by a factor of 3,300 as compared to the risk of developing breast cancer in the absence of radiation exposure. At the age of 40 or more, the benefit of mammography exceeds the radiation risk by a factor of about 100. At higher ages this factor increases further. Finally, the dualism of individual risk and collective risk is considered. It is shown that the individual risk of a patient, even after multiple mammography examinations, is vanishingly small. Nevertheless, the basic principle of minimising radiation exposure must be followed to keep the collective risk in the total population as low as reasonably achievable. (orig.) [Deutsch] Das Mammakarzinom ist in Deutschland die haeufigste Krebserkrankung der Frau, und entsprechend oft wird die Mammographie als das derzeit wichtigste Diagnoseverfahren eingesetzt. Zur Beurteilung des mit einer mammographischen Untersuchung verbundenen Strahlenrisikos liegen die Resultate einer groesseren Anzahl strahlenepidemiologischer Studien vor. Diese liefern den Risikokoeffizienten fuer Brustkrebs in Abhaengigkeit vom Lebensalter bei Strahlenexposition und ermoeglichen somit die Berechnung des altersabhaengigen Strahlenrisikos. Beispielsweise wird durch eine einmalige Mammographie-Untersuchung (bilateral, je zwei Aufnahmen in zwei Ebenen) bei einer 45

  3. Prospective associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and CRP genetic risk scores with risk of total knee and hip replacement for osteoarthritis in a diverse cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadyab, A H; Terkeltaub, R; Kooperberg, C; Reiner, A; Eaton, C B; Jackson, R D; Krok-Schoen, J L; Salem, R M; LaCroix, A Z

    2018-05-22

    To examine associations of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and polygenic CRP genetic risk scores (GRS) with risk of end-stage hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as incident total hip (THR) or knee replacement (TKR) for OA. This study included a cohort of postmenopausal white, African American, and Hispanic women from the Women's Health Initiative. Women were followed from baseline to date of THR or TKR, death, or December 31, 2014. Medicare claims data identified THR and TKR. Hs-CRP and genotyping data were collected at baseline. Three CRP GRS were constructed: 1) a 4-SNP GRS comprised of genetic variants representing variation in the CRP gene among European populations; 2) a multilocus 18-SNP GRS of genetic variants significantly associated with CRP levels in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies; and 3) a 5-SNP GRS of genetic variants significantly associated with CRP levels among African American women. In analyses conducted separately among each race and ethnic group, there were no significant associations of ln hs-CRP with risk of THR or TKR, after adjusting for age, body mass index, lifestyle characteristics, chronic diseases, hormone therapy use, and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. CRP GRS were not associated with risk of THR or TKR in any ethnic group. Serum levels of ln hs-CRP and genetically-predicted CRP levels were not associated with risk of THR or TKR for OA among a diverse cohort of women. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Effect of Risk Acceptance for Bundled Care Payments on Clinical Outcomes in a High-Volume Total Joint Arthroplasty Practice After Implementation of a Standardized Clinical Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kee, James R; Edwards, Paul K; Barnes, Charles L

    2017-08-01

    The Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative and the Arkansas Payment Improvement (API) initiative seek to incentivize reduced costs and improved outcomes compared with the previous fee-for-service model. Before participation, our practice initiated a standardized clinical pathway (CP) to reduce length of stay (LOS), readmissions, and discharge to postacute care facilities. This practice implemented a standardized CP focused on patient education, managing patient expectations, and maximizing cost outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed all primary total joint arthroplasty patients during the initial 2-year "at risk" period for both BPCI and API and determined discharge disposition, LOS, and readmission rate. During the "at risk" period, the average LOS decreased in our total joint arthroplasty patients and our patients discharged home >94%. Patients within the BPCI group had a decreased discharge to home and decreased readmission rates after total hip arthroplasty, but also tended to be older than both API and nonbundled payment patients. While participating in the BPCI and API, continued use of a standardized CP in a high-performing, high-volume total joint practice resulted in maintenance of a low-average LOS. In addition, BPCI patients had similar outcomes after total knee arthroplasty, but had decreased rates of discharge to home and readmission after total hip arthroplasty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Numerical Model for Trickle Bed Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Propp, Richard M.; Colella, Phillip; Crutchfield, William Y.; Day, Marcus S.

    2000-12-01

    Trickle bed reactors are governed by equations of flow in porous media such as Darcy's law and the conservation of mass. Our numerical method for solving these equations is based on a total-velocity splitting, sequential formulation which leads to an implicit pressure equation and a semi-implicit mass conservation equation. We use high-resolution finite-difference methods to discretize these equations. Our solution scheme extends previous work in modeling porous media flows in two ways. First, we incorporate physical effects due to capillary pressure, a nonlinear inlet boundary condition, spatial porosity variations, and inertial effects on phase mobilities. In particular, capillary forces introduce a parabolic component into the recast evolution equation, and the inertial effects give rise to hyperbolic nonconvexity. Second, we introduce a modification of the slope-limiting algorithm to prevent our numerical method from producing spurious shocks. We present a numerical algorithm for accommodating these difficulties, show the algorithm is second-order accurate, and demonstrate its performance on a number of simplified problems relevant to trickle bed reactor modeling.

  6. Total cross section for relativistic positronium interaction with atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pak, A.S.; Tarasov, A.V.

    1985-01-01

    Total cross sections of interaction of positronium relativistic atoms with atoms are calculated. Calculations are conducted within the framework of potential theory in Born approximaton. Contributions in total cross section of coherent (σsub(coh)) and incoherent (σsub(inc)) parts are analyzed. It is shown that for light elements σsub(inc) value is comparable with σsub(coh), and for heavy ones the ratio σsub(inc)/σsub(coh) sufficiently exceeds Zsup(-1) (Z-charge of the atomic nucleus. Numerical calculation results are presented. A conclusion is made on importance of the coherent part account during the calculation of total cross sections

  7. [Delirium in stroke patients : Critical analysis of statistical procedures for the identification of risk factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nydahl, P; Margraf, N G; Ewers, A

    2017-04-01

    Delirium is a relevant complication following an acute stroke. It is a multifactor occurrence with numerous interacting risk factors that alternately influence each other. The risk factors of delirium in stroke patients are often based on limited clinical studies. The statistical procedures and clinical relevance of delirium related risk factors in adult stroke patients should therefore be questioned. This secondary analysis includes clinically relevant studies that give evidence for the clinical relevance and statistical significance of delirium-associated risk factors in stroke patients. The quality of the reporting of regression analyses was assessed using Ottenbacher's quality criteria. The delirium-associated risk factors identified were examined with regard to statistical significance using the Bonferroni method of multiple testing for forming incorrect positive hypotheses. This was followed by a literature-based discussion on clinical relevance. Nine clinical studies were included. None of the studies fulfilled all the prerequisites and assumptions given for the reporting of regression analyses according to Ottenbacher. Of the 108 delirium-associated risk factors, a total of 48 (44.4%) were significant, whereby a total of 28 (58.3%) were false positive after Bonferroni correction. Following a literature-based discussion on clinical relevance, the assumption of statistical significance and clinical relevance could be found for only four risk factors (dementia or cognitive impairment, total anterior infarct, severe infarct and infections). The statistical procedures used in the existing literature are questionable, as are their results. A post-hoc analysis and critical appraisal reduced the number of possible delirium-associated risk factors to just a few clinically relevant factors.

  8. Prediction by numerical modeling of the risk zone along a riverside exposed to a dam failure; Prevision par modelisation numerique de la zone de risque bordant un troncon de riviere subissant une rupture de barrage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahdi, T.F.

    2004-07-01

    The risk zone associated with the surge wave following dam failure is defined in this study using a newly developed methodology that incorporates the conventionally used maximum water levels, the sediment movement in the river bed and the possibility of bank failure. Although the risk zone is typically defined as the inundated area, extensive lateral erosion that causes landslides could also accompany the inundation. This study demonstrates that the stability of the riverbank (in terms of geotechnical considerations) can influence the delineation of the risk area. The combined disciplines of geotechnics and hydraulics can be used to follow the evolution of the riverbed and riverbanks during a flood event. This study also presents a structured methodology for the St. Venant shallow water wave equations which were used to determine the area likely to be flooded without taking into account sediment transport. It also discusses aspects of the sediment transport theory. Fluvial erosion and lateral bank failure are the basic physical processes responsible for bank retreat. The minimum energy dissipation rate theory is applied for fluvial erosion, while Bishop's modified method is used to analyze slope stability when evaluating lateral bank failures. A numerical modeling of flows over movable beds is presented along with a review of some of the available numerical models. A diagnostic phase that provides information needed to qualify the extent of the damage after a flood is also presented. Some of the numerical models to evaluate risk area were validated on a portion of the HaHa River which was affected in the 1996 Saguenay flood. The new methodology, applied to the Outaouais River at Notre Dame du Nord in Quebec, produces a risk area much greater than that obtained when only the inundated area is considered.

  9. Total Generalized Variation for Manifold-valued Data

    OpenAIRE

    Bredies, K.; Holler, M.; Storath, M.; Weinmann, A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we introduce the notion of second-order total generalized variation (TGV) regularization for manifold-valued data. We provide an axiomatic approach to formalize reasonable generalizations of TGV to the manifold setting and present two possible concrete instances that fulfill the proposed axioms. We provide well-posedness results and present algorithms for a numerical realization of these generalizations to the manifold setup. Further, we provide experimental results for syntheti...

  10. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  11. Rigid inclusions-Comparison between analytical and numerical methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Perez, R.; Melentijevic, S.

    2014-01-01

    This paper compares different analytical methods for analysis of rigid inclusions with finite element modeling. First of all, the load transfer in the distribution layer is analyzed for its different thicknesses and different inclusion grids to define the range between results obtained by analytical and numerical methods. The interaction between the soft soil and the inclusion in the estimation of settlements is studied as well. Considering different stiffness of the soft soil, settlements obtained analytical and numerically are compared. The influence of the soft soil modulus of elasticity on the neutral point depth was also performed by finite elements. This depth has a great importance for the definition of the total length of rigid inclusion. (Author)

  12. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  13. The risk factor of thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusama, Tomoko

    1979-01-01

    For the purposes of radiation protection, the noteworthy risk of thyroid is carcinogenesis. The risk factor which ICRP presented in the publication-26 is 5 x 10 - 6 rem - 1 . This numerical value is based upon the estimated likelihood of inducing fatal thyroid cancer. On the other hand, the risk factor presented by the BEIR report is 4 x 10 - 6 yr - 1 . This value was decided after consideration of the risks of both fatal and non-fatal cancer of thyroid. The following features distinguished thyroid cancer from malignancy of other tissue from medical point of view. 1) A large difference between incidence and mortality in case of thyroid cancer is recognized, because the thyroid cancer could be successfully treated by surgical or radiological treatment. 2) The high prevalence of clinically silent tumor in thyroid gland has been reported. The incidence of thyroid cancer, therefore, is very dependent on methods of medical inspection. The prevalence of radiation induced thyroid cancer is modified by various factors such as age, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is very important factors such as ave, sex, latency, dose and dose rate. The latent period is a very important factor in the estimation of accumulated total risk of thyroid malignancy. What is included in the risk caused by thyroid irradiation must be investigated. The risk of non-fatal cancer should be considered in the same way as that of fatal cancer. The dose-equivalent limit of thyroid in non-uniform irradiation caused by radioactive iodine is decided by the limit for non-stochastic effects. Therefore the further consideration of non-stochastic effects of thyroid is necessary. (author)

  14. Special features of total knee replacement in hemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Merchan, Emerito Carlos

    2013-12-01

    Total knee replacement is an operation frequently needed by hemophilia patients, which greatly improves their quality of life. This operation, however, carries a higher risk of bleeding and infection for hemophiliacs than it does for osteoarthritis sufferers. It is advisable to implant prosthetic components using antibiotic-loaded cement. It is essential to maintain a level of 100% of the replacement clotting factor for 2 weeks. Hematological treatment must be established, depending on the patient's factor levels and other pharmacokinetic parameters such as recovery and half-life, optimal doses and treatment time. It is preferable to use general anesthesia due to the risk of spinal bleeding. The lifespan of total knee replacement in hemophilic patients is shorter than in patients with osteoarthritis because of the increased risk of infection.

  15. Risk of cardiovascular disease and total mortality in adults with type 1 diabetes: Scottish registry linkage study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shona J Livingstone

    previously reported in other developed countries, CVD and mortality rates may not be generalizable to other countries. Limitations included lack of information on the specific insulin therapy used.Although the relative risks for CVD and total mortality associated with T1DM in this population have declined relative to earlier studies, T1DM continues to be associated with higher CVD and death rates than the non-diabetic population. Risk factor management should be improved to further reduce risk but better treatment approaches for achieving good glycaemic control are badly needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  16. Numerical Calculation of the Output Power of a MHD Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian CARABINEANU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Using Lazăr Dragoş’s analytic solution for the electric potential we perform some numerical calculations in order to find the characteristics of a Faraday magnetohydrodymamics (MHD power generator (total power, useful power and Joule dissipation power.

  17. Numerical characterization of nanopillar photonic crystal waveguides and directional couplers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chigrin, Dmitry N.; Lavrinenko, Andrei; Sotomayor Torres, Clivia M.

    2005-01-01

    We numerically characterize a novel type of a photonic crystal waveguide, which consists of several rows of periodically arranged dielectric cylinders. In such a nanopillar photonic crystal waveguide, light confinement is due to the total internal reflection. A nanopillar waveguide is a multimode...

  18. Comparative risk assessment of total energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.

    1982-01-01

    The paper discusses a methodology for total impact assessment of energy systems, ideally evaluating all the impacts that a given energy system has on the society in which it is imbedded or into which its introduction is being considered. Impacts from the entire energy conversion chain ('fuel cycle' if the system is fuel-based), including energy storage, transport and transmission, as well as the institutions formed in order to manage the system, should be compared on the basis of the energy service provided. A number of impacts are considered, broadly classified as impacts on satisfaction of biological needs, on health, on environment, on social relations and on the structure of society. Further considerations include impacts related to cost and resilience, and, last but not least, impacts on global relations. The paper discusses a number of published energy studies in the light of the comparative impact assessment methodology outlined above. (author)

  19. The total Hartree-Fock energy-eigenvalue sum relationship in atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, K.D.

    1979-01-01

    Using the well known relationships for the isoelectronic changes in the total Hartree-Fock energy, nucleus-electron attraction energy and electron-electron repulsion energy in atoms a simple polynomial expansion in Z is obtained for the sum of the eigenvalues which can be used to calculate the total Hartree-Fock energy. Numerical results are presented for 2-10 electron series to show that the present relationship is a better approximation than the other available energy-eigenvalue relationships. (author)

  20. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, G Shanker

    2006-01-01

    About the Book: This book provides an introduction to Numerical Analysis for the students of Mathematics and Engineering. The book is designed in accordance with the common core syllabus of Numerical Analysis of Universities of Andhra Pradesh and also the syllabus prescribed in most of the Indian Universities. Salient features: Approximate and Numerical Solutions of Algebraic and Transcendental Equation Interpolation of Functions Numerical Differentiation and Integration and Numerical Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations The last three chapters deal with Curve Fitting, Eigen Values and Eigen Vectors of a Matrix and Regression Analysis. Each chapter is supplemented with a number of worked-out examples as well as number of problems to be solved by the students. This would help in the better understanding of the subject. Contents: Errors Solution of Algebraic and Transcendental Equations Finite Differences Interpolation with Equal Intervals Interpolation with Unequal Int...

  1. Industry-specific risk models for numerical scoring of hazards and prioritization of safety measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khali, Y.F.; Johnson, K.

    2004-01-01

    Risk analysis consists of five cornerstones that have to be viewed in an holistic manner by risk practitioners of any organization regardless of the industry type or nature of its critical infrastructures. The cornerstones are hazard identification, risk assessment and consequence analysis, determination of risk management actions required to reduce risks to acceptable levels, communication of risk insights among the stake-holders, and continuous monitoring and verification to ensure sustained attainment of tolerable risk levels. Our primary objectives in this research are two fold: first, we compare and contrast a wide spectrum of current industry-specific and application-dependent semi-quantitative risk models. Secondly, based on the insights to be gained from the first task, we propose a framework for a robust risk-based approach for conducting security vulnerability assessment (SVA). Risk practitioners of critical infrastructures, such as commercial nuclear power plants, water utilities, chemical plants, transmission and distribution substations... etc., could readily use this proposed approach to classify, evaluate, and prioritize risks to support allocation of resources required to ensure protection of public health and safety. (author)

  2. Numerical Modelling of the Weight-Bearing Total Knee Joint Replacement and Usage in Practice

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Daněk, Josef; Nedoma, Jiří; Hlaváček, Ivan; Vavřík, P.; Denk, F.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 76, č. 1-3 (2007), s. 49-56 ISSN 0378-4754 R&D Projects: GA MPO FT-TA/087 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : total knee joint replacement * contact problem * non-overlapping domain decomposition method Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.738, year: 2007

  3. Risk Analysis in Road Tunnels – Most Important Risk Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Thöns, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Methodologies on fire risk analysis in road tunnels consider numerous factors affecting risks (risk indicators) and express the results by risk measures. But only few comprehensive studies on effects of risk indicators on risk measures are available. For this reason, this study quantifies...... the effects and highlights the most important risk indicators with the aim to support further developments in risk analysis. Therefore, a system model of a road tunnel was developed to determine the risk measures. The system model can be divided into three parts: the fire part connected to the fire model Fire...... Dynamics Simulator (FDS); the evacuation part connected to the evacuation model FDS+Evac; and the frequency part connected to a model to calculate the frequency of fires. This study shows that the parts of the system model (and their most important risk indicators) affect the risk measures in the following...

  4. Is total lymphocyte count related to nutritional markers in hospitalized older adults?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vânia Aparecida LEANDRO-MERHI

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT BACKGROUND Older patients are commonly malnourished during hospital stay, and a high prevalence of malnutrition is found in hospitalized patients aged more than 65 years. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether total lymphocyte count is related to other nutritional markers in hospitalized older adults. METHODS Hospitalized older adults (N=131 were recruited for a cross-sectional study. Their nutritional status was assessed by the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS, anthropometry, and total lymphocyte count. The statistical analyses included the chi-square test, Fisher's exact test, and Mann-Whitney test. Spearman's linear correlation coefficient determined whether total lymphocyte count was correlated with the nutritional markers. Multiple linear regression determined the parameters associated with lymphocyte count. The significance level was set at 5%. RESULTS According to the NRS, 41.2% of the patients were at nutritional risk, and 36% had mild or moderate depletion according to total lymphocyte count. Total lymphocyte count was weakly correlated with mid-upper arm circumference (r=0.20507; triceps skinfold thickness (r=0.29036, and length of hospital stay (r= -0.21518. Total lymphocyte count in different NRS categories differed significantly: older adults who were not at nutritional risk had higher mean and median total lymphocyte count ( P =0.0245. Multiple regression analysis showed that higher lymphocyte counts were associated with higher triceps skinfold thicknesses and no nutritional risk according to the NRS. CONCLUSION Total lymphocyte count was correlated with mid-upper arm circumference, triceps skinfold thickness, and nutritional risk according to the NRS. In multiple regression the combined factors that remained associated with lymphocyte count were NRS and triceps skinfold thickness. Therefore, total lymphocyte count may be considered a nutritional marker. Other studies should confirm these findings.

  5. Socioeconomic and hygienic aspects of nutrition correction and water supply in order to improve total resistance and reduce the risk of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knizhnikov, V.A.; Shandala, N.K.; Komleva, V.A.; Tutel'yan, V.A.

    1995-01-01

    The authors have experimentally demonstrated that selenium deficit in the dies of the population the Russian Federation increases the risk of cancer similarly as total irradiation dose equal to 200 sZv, that is, much more than the doses of irradiation of the population after the Chernobyl power plant accident. Artificial enrichment of diets for selenium helps reduce the risk of death from leukemia and cancer by 5 up to times. Combinations of trace elements and vitamins may bring about a still better effect. The authors discuss nutrition correction and its economic and social validity. 6 refs.; 3 tabs

  6. Risk factors for deep infection after total knee arthroplasty: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie; Cui, Yunying; Li, Xin; Miao, Xiangwan; Wen, Zhanpeng; Xue, Yan; Tian, Jing

    2013-05-01

    Estimated the risk factors for postoperative infection after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) to prevent its occurrence. The meta-analysis collected twelve cohorts or case-control studies which included 548 infected persons in 57,223 general cases. Review Manager 5.0 was operated to assess the heterogeneity and to give an overall estimate of the association of factors with postoperative infection after TKA. The main factors distinctly associated with infection after TKA were BMI (BMI >30: OR = 2.53, 95 % CI 1.25, 5.13; BMI >40: OR = 4.00, 95 % CI 1.23, 12.98), diabetes mellitus (OR = 3.72, 95 % CI 2.30, 6.01), hypertension (OR = 2.53, 95 % CI 1.07, 5.99), steroid therapy (OR = 2.04, 95 % CI 1.11, 3.74), and rheumatoid arthritis (OR = 1.83; 95 % CI 1.42, 2.36). It had no sufficient evidences to reveal that gender could lead to infection after TKA. Osteoarthritis appeared to have a moderately protective effect. Statistical analysis revealed no correlation between urinary tract infection, fixation method, ASA, bilateral operation, age, transfusion, antibiotics, bone graft, and infection. There were positive evidences for some certain factors which could be targeted for prevention of the onset of infection, but more studies are needed to define the association of some other controversial factors in infection, like osteoarthritis, gender and so on. The quality of studies also needs to be improved.

  7. Flood Risk Analysis in Denpasar City, Bali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusmiyarti, T. B.; Wiguna, P. P. K.; Ratna Dewi, N. K. R.

    2018-02-01

    Denpasar city is a Capital City of Bali Province and one of the leading tourist destinations in Indonesia. Denpasar area is relatively flat with high rain fall intensity with the domince of settlement. This makes Denpasar City becomes prone area of flood. The aim of this research is to find out the spatial distribution flood hazard and the risk of population which are affected to the flood hazard. Weighting, scoring and overlaying method were used in this research. Six indicators were used to analyze the flood hazard: landuse, rainfall, type of soil, slope, altitute and drainage density. The vulnerability is analyzed per Desa or Kelurahan (Rustic/Neighborhood) with the indicator of age, education and population density. Risk was calculated by multiplied hazard with vulnerability and divided with coping capacity. In this research, coping capacity is determined by the amount of internal budget for each Desa or Kelurahan for development purpose. Flood risk in Denpasar city is divided into five classes, very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Total population with very high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. Total population with high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. The number of population with medium risk reached 202478 people or 33.51% of total population which occupied 22.95% of total settlements or 1118.18 ha. The total number of population with low risk reached 79435 people or 13.14% of total population with area of low flood risk is 716.89 ha or 14.71% of total settlements in Denpasar City. Very low flood risk with total population at risk reached 19184 people or 31.74% of total population and occupied 2003.54 areas or 41.12% of total areas of settlements.

  8. A delta-rule model of numerical and non-numerical order processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verguts, Tom; Van Opstal, Filip

    2014-06-01

    Numerical and non-numerical order processing share empirical characteristics (distance effect and semantic congruity), but there are also important differences (in size effect and end effect). At the same time, models and theories of numerical and non-numerical order processing developed largely separately. Currently, we combine insights from 2 earlier models to integrate them in a common framework. We argue that the same learning principle underlies numerical and non-numerical orders, but that environmental features determine the empirical differences. Implications for current theories on order processing are pointed out. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Patterns of Relapse in High-Risk Neuroblastoma Patients Treated With and Without Total Body Irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Richard; Polishchuk, Alexei; DuBois, Steven; Hawkins, Randall; Lee, Stephanie W.; Bagatell, Rochelle; Shusterman, Suzanne; Hill-Kayser, Christine; Al-Sayegh, Hasan; Diller, Lisa; Haas-Kogan, Daphne A.; Matthay, Katherine K.; London, Wendy B.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: External beam radiation therapy to initial sites of disease may influence relapse patterns in high-risk neuroblastoma. However, the effect of systemic irradiation by use of total body irradiation (TBI) on anatomic patterns of relapse has not previously been investigated. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed patients receiving definitive treatment of high-risk neuroblastoma with subsequent relapse in bony metastatic sites, with a date of relapse between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2012. Anatomic sites of disease, defined by metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) avidity, were compared at diagnosis and at first relapse. The Fisher exact test was performed to compare relapse in initially involved sites between patients treated with and without TBI. Results: Seventy-four patients with a median age at diagnosis of 3.5 years (range, 0.3-15.3 years) had relapse in 227 sites of MIBG-avid metastatic disease, with a median time to relapse of 1.8 years. Of the 227 sites of first relapse, 154 sites (68%) were involved at diagnosis. When we compared relapse patterns in patients treated with and without TBI, 12 of 23 patients (52%) treated with TBI had relapse in ≥1 previously MIBG-avid site of disease whereas 40 of 51 patients (78%) treated without TBI had relapse in ≥1 previously MIBG-avid site of disease (P=.03). Conclusions: Patients treated with systemic irradiation in the form of TBI were significantly less likely to have relapse in prior sites of disease. These findings support further investigation into the role of radiopharmaceutical therapies in curative multimodality therapy.

  10. Patterns of Relapse in High-Risk Neuroblastoma Patients Treated With and Without Total Body Irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Richard [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Polishchuk, Alexei [School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); DuBois, Steven [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Hawkins, Randall [School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Lee, Stephanie W. [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Bagatell, Rochelle [Children' s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Shusterman, Suzanne [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Hill-Kayser, Christine [Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Al-Sayegh, Hasan [Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Diller, Lisa [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Haas-Kogan, Daphne A. [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Brigham and Women' s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Matthay, Katherine K. [School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); London, Wendy B. [Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); Dana-Farber/Boston Children' s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center, Boston, Massachusetts (United States); and others

    2017-02-01

    Purpose: External beam radiation therapy to initial sites of disease may influence relapse patterns in high-risk neuroblastoma. However, the effect of systemic irradiation by use of total body irradiation (TBI) on anatomic patterns of relapse has not previously been investigated. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed patients receiving definitive treatment of high-risk neuroblastoma with subsequent relapse in bony metastatic sites, with a date of relapse between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2012. Anatomic sites of disease, defined by metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) avidity, were compared at diagnosis and at first relapse. The Fisher exact test was performed to compare relapse in initially involved sites between patients treated with and without TBI. Results: Seventy-four patients with a median age at diagnosis of 3.5 years (range, 0.3-15.3 years) had relapse in 227 sites of MIBG-avid metastatic disease, with a median time to relapse of 1.8 years. Of the 227 sites of first relapse, 154 sites (68%) were involved at diagnosis. When we compared relapse patterns in patients treated with and without TBI, 12 of 23 patients (52%) treated with TBI had relapse in ≥1 previously MIBG-avid site of disease whereas 40 of 51 patients (78%) treated without TBI had relapse in ≥1 previously MIBG-avid site of disease (P=.03). Conclusions: Patients treated with systemic irradiation in the form of TBI were significantly less likely to have relapse in prior sites of disease. These findings support further investigation into the role of radiopharmaceutical therapies in curative multimodality therapy.

  11. Playing Linear Numerical Board Games Promotes Low-Income Children's Numerical Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Ramani, Geetha B.

    2008-01-01

    The numerical knowledge of children from low-income backgrounds trails behind that of peers from middle-income backgrounds even before the children enter school. This gap may reflect differing prior experience with informal numerical activities, such as numerical board games. Experiment 1 indicated that the numerical magnitude knowledge of…

  12. Radiographic pseudochondrocalcinosis in early failure of a cemented total knee replacement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kloen, P.; Burke, D. W.; Chew, F. S.; Mildrum, R.

    1998-01-01

    We observed a case of early-onset osteolysis in a cemented total knee arthroplasty. Preoperative radiographs suggested numerous radiopaque particles covering the polyethylene insert. Findings at the time of revision confirmed the presence of small radiopaque polymethylmethacrylate particles on the

  13. Who is responsible for food risks? The influence of risk type and risk characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leikas, Sointu; Lindeman, Marjaana; Roininen, Katariina

    2009-01-01

    The influence of food risk type and risk characteristics on food risk responsibility judgments was studied. A total of 1270 Finnish consumers judged their personal responsibility and the responsibility of three non-personal targets, industry, retail, and society, in relation to six food...

  14. Intake of total omega-3 fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid and risk of coronary heart disease in the Spanish EPIC cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiano, P; Machón, M; Dorronsoro, M; Chirlaque, M Dolores; Barricarte, A; Sánchez, M-J; Navarro, C; Huerta, J M; Molina-Montes, E; Sánchez-Cantalejo, E; Urtizberea, M; Arriola, L; Larrañaga, N; Ardanaz, E; Quirós, J R; Moreno-Iribas, C; González, C A

    2014-03-01

    The evidence about the benefits of omega-3 fatty acid intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) is not consistent. We thus aimed to assess the relation between dietary intake of total omega-3 fatty acids (from plant and marine foods) and marine polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), on the risk of CHD in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 41,091 men and women aged 20-69 years, recruited from 1992 to 1996 and followed-up until December 2004. Omega-3 fatty acid intake was estimated from a validated dietary questionnaire. Only participants with definite incident CHD event were considered as cases. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between the intake of total omega-3 fatty acids, EPA or DHA and CHD. A total of 609 participants (79% men) had a definite CHD event. Mean intakes of total omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA were very similar in the cases and in the cohort, both in men and women. In the multivariate adjusted model, omega-3 fatty acids, EPA and DHA were not related to incident CHD in either men or women. The hazard ratios (HR) for omega-3 were 1.23 in men (95% CI 0.94-15.9, p = 0.20); and 0.77 in women (95% CI 0.46-1.30, p = 0.76). In the Spanish EPIC cohort, with a relatively high intake of fish, no association was found between EPA, DHA and total omega-3 fatty acid intake and risk of CHD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Total Androgen Blockade Versus a Luteinizing Hormone-Releasing Hormone Agonist Alone in Men With High-Risk Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanda, Akash; Chen, M.-H.; Moran, Brian J.; Braccioforte, Michelle H.; Dosoretz, Daniel; Salenius, Sharon; Katin, Michael; Ross, Rudi; D'Amico, Anthony V.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To assess whether short-course total androgen blockade vs. a luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist alone affects the risk of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in men with localized but high-risk disease treated with radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: The study cohort comprised 628 men with T1-T4, N0, M0 prostate cancer with high-risk disease (prostate-specific antigen level >20 ng/mL, Gleason score ≥8, or clinical category ≥T3) treated with 45 Gy of external beam radiotherapy followed by a brachytherapy boost in addition to receiving a median of 4.3 (interquartile range [IQR], 3.6-6.4) months of hormonal blockade with an LHRH agonist plus an antiandrogen or monotherapy with an LHRH agonist. Fine and Gray's multivariable regression analysis was used to determine whether combination androgen suppression therapy (AST) vs. monotherapy affected the risk of PCSM, adjusting for treatment year, duration of AST, age, and known prognostic factors. Results: After a median follow-up of 4.9 (IQR, 3.5-6.5) years, men receiving combination AST had a lower risk of PCSM than those treated with monotherapy (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04-0.90; p = 0.04). An increasing prostate-specific antigen level (AHR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.64-4.45; p < 0.001) and clinical category T3/4 disease (AHR, 29.6; 95% CI, 2.88-303.5; p = 0.004) were also associated with an increased risk of PCSM. Conclusions: In men with localized but high-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy and brachytherapy, short-course AST with an LHRH agonist plus an antiandrogen is associated with a decreased risk of PCSM when compared with monotherapy with an LHRH agonist.

  16. Total joint replacement: A multiple risk factor analysis of physical activity level 1-2 years postoperatively.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Elizabeth W; Torres, Andy; Love, Rebecca M; Barber, Thomas C; Sheth, Dhiren S; Inacio, Maria C S

    2016-07-01

    Background and purpose - The effect of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) on physical activity is not fully understood. We investigated the change in physical activity after TJA and patient factors associated with change. Patients and methods - Using a total joint replacement registry, primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients (n = 5,678) and knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients (n = 11,084) between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 were identified. Median age at THA was 68 and median age at TKA was 67. Change in self-reported physical activity (minutes per week) from before TJA (within 1 year of surgery) to after TJA (1-2 years) was the outcome of interest. Patient demographics and comorbidities were evaluated as risk factors. Multiple linear regression was used. Results - Median physical activity before surgery was 50 min/week (IQR: 0-140) for THA patients and 58 (IQR: 3-143) for TKA patients. Median physical activity after surgery was 150 min/week (IQR: 60-280) for both THA patients and TKA patients. Following TJA, 50% of patients met CDC/WHO physical activity guideline criteria. Higher body mass index was associated with lower change in physical activity (THA: -7.1 min/week; TKA: -5.9 min/week). Females had lower change than males (THA: -11 min/week; TKA: -9.1 min/week). In TKA patients, renal failure was associated with lower change (-17 min/week), as were neurological disorders (-30 min/week). Interpretation - Self-reported minutes of physical activity increased from before to after TJA, but 50% of TJA patients did not meet recommended physical activity guideline criteria. Higher body mass index, female sex, and specific comorbidities were found to be associated with low change in physical activity. Patient education on the benefits of physical activity should concentrate on these subgroups of patients.

  17. Effect of human movement on airborne disease transmission in an airplane cabin: study using numerical modeling and quantitative risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zhuyang; To, Gin Nam Sze; Fu, Sau Chung; Chao, Christopher Yu-Hang; Weng, Wenguo; Huang, Quanyi

    2014-08-06

    Airborne transmission of respiratory infectious disease in indoor environment (e.g. airplane cabin, conference room, hospital, isolated room and inpatient ward) may cause outbreaks of infectious diseases, which may lead to many infection cases and significantly influences on the public health. This issue has received more and more attentions from academics. This work investigates the influence of human movement on the airborne transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in an airplane cabin by using an accurate human model in numerical simulation and comparing the influences of different human movement behaviors on disease transmission. The Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is adopted to simulate the dispersion and deposition of the expiratory aerosols. The dose-response model is used to assess the infection risks of the occupants. The likelihood analysis is performed as a hypothesis test on the input parameters and different human movement pattern assumptions. An in-flight SARS outbreak case is used for investigation. A moving person with different moving speeds is simulated to represent the movement behaviors. A digital human model was used to represent the detailed profile of the occupants, which was obtained by scanning a real thermal manikin using the 3D laser scanning system. The analysis results indicate that human movement can strengthen the downward transport of the aerosols, significantly reduce the overall deposition and removal rate of the suspended aerosols and increase the average infection risk in the cabin. The likelihood estimation result shows that the risk assessment results better fit the outcome of the outbreak case when the movements of the seated passengers are considered. The intake fraction of the moving person is significantly higher than most of the seated passengers. The infection risk distribution in the airplane cabin highly depends on the movement behaviors of the passengers and the index patient. The walking activities of the crew

  18. Numerical investigation of beam-driven PWFA in quasi-nonlinear regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Londrillo, P.; Gatti, C.; Ferrario, M.

    2014-01-01

    In beam-driven Plasma Based Wakefield Acceleration (PWFA), the quasi-nonlinear model has been designed to combine high efficient ‘blowout’ regimes, where cold and overdense driving electron beams form a totally rarefied plasma channel, with low charge beam distribution assuring the excited wakefield preserves relevant linear properties. This scheme can have applications in experimental facilities, like SPARC 150 MeV linac at LNF-INFN laboratories, where low-emittance, low-charge narrow electron beams can be produced to be injected on a preformed plasma channel. Here we present a preliminary numerical investigation of this configuration, using the fully 3D ALaDyn PIC code, as a preparatory work to design optimal conditions for the COMB experimental set-up. Specific numerical tools, having computational and diagnostic advantages in PWFA conditions and checks of the numerical outcomes with analytical results, are also presented and discussed

  19. Evaluation of the 238U neutron total cross section

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, A.; Poenitz, W.P.; Howerton, R.J.

    1982-12-01

    Experimental energy-averaged neutron total cross sections of 238 U were evaluated from 0.044 to 20.0 MeV using regorous numerical methods. The evaluated results are presented together with the associated uncertainties and correlation matrix. They indicate that this energy-averaged neutron total cross section is known to better than 1% over wide energy regions. There are somwewhat larger uncertainties at low energies (e.g., less than or equal to 0.2 MeV), near 8 MeV and above 15 MeV. The present evaluation is compard with values given in ENDF/B-V

  20. Total Phenol amd Flavonoid contents of Crude Extract and Fractions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Phenolic compounds are numerous in plants and are essential part of human diet. Picralima nitida has been extensively used in African folk medicine especially in West Africa. The present study evaluated the total phenolic and flavonoid contents of the extract and fractions of Picralima nitida. The methanol extracts of P.

  1. Blood transfusion in primary total shoulder arthroplasty: incidence, trends, and risk factors in the United States from 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Devon J; Yoshihara, Hiroyuki; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Zuckerman, Joseph D

    2015-05-01

    Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) may be associated with substantial blood loss, and some patients require perioperative blood transfusion. Possible blood transfusion methods include predonated autologous blood transfusion, perioperative autologous blood transfusion, and allogeneic blood transfusion (ALBT). The purposes of the present study were to assess the incidence and recent trends over time of blood transfusion in TSA and analyze patient and hospital characteristics that affect the risk of ALBT. This study used national hospital discharge data from the National Inpatient Sample between 2000 and 2009. The data were used to generate the overall blood transfusion rate, and linear regression was used to assess trends in transfusion patterns over time. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze which patient and hospital characteristics independently influence the likelihood that a given patient undergoes ALBT. The overall blood transfusion rate (ie, the proportion of patients who received at least 1 transfusion of any kind) was 6.7%. This rate increased over time, from 4.9% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2009 (P blood transfusion rate in TSA found in the present study may be related to factors specific to TSA, such as the introduction of reverse total shoulder arthroplasty during the study period. A variety of patient and hospital characteristics contribute to the risk of undergoing ALBT. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. How to make a risk seem riskier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carissa Bonner

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Which statement conveys greater risk: ``100 people die from cancer every day'' or ``36,500 people die from cancer every year''? In statistics where both frequencies and temporal information are used to convey risk, two theories predict opposite answers to this question. Construal level theory predicts that ``100 people die from cancer every day'' will be judged as more risky, while the ratio bias predicts that the equivalent ``36,500 people die from cancer every year'' will result in higher risk judgments. An experiment investigated which format produces higher risk ratings, and whether ratings are influenced by increasing the salience of the numerical or temporal part of the statistic. Forty-eight participants were randomly assigned to a numerical, temporal or control salience condition, and rated risk framed as number of deaths per day or per year. The year format was found to result in higher perceived risk, indicating that the ratio bias effect is dominant, but there was no effect of salience.

  3. Evaluation of total effort and risk of membraneless tubular fuel cell concept

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bambace, Luis Antonio Waack [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: bambace@dem.inpe.br

    2010-07-01

    Traditionally people estimate project risks and duration by comparing predicted actions with similar ones. This methodology is rather difficult to apply in very innovative projects, as several of their Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) actions are quite new to a particular developer, even if this action is a standard procedure in another field or company. This paper proposes the use of an alternative methodology with fuel cell design example, which is inspired in Suh third axiom, Jelinsky-Moranda Model of software reliability (JMSRM). This model considers human error with JMRSR, relates the number of trials with entropy and search residual risk, feasibility with model uncertainty and acceptable and target risks, and the matching of search field and real solution field with statistical tools. (author)

  4. Total flying hours and risk of high systolic blood pressure in the civilian pilot in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdi Afian

    2016-07-01

    medical examinations in the Civil Aviation Medical Center  on 18 to 29 May 2015. Several data among other, others, were on demographic and job characteristics, clinical, exercise habits, eating habits, and history of the disease. High systolic blood pressure defined as systolic blood pressure  140 mmHg or more. Results: Of the 690 pilots who conduct periodic health examinations, 428 male pilots willing to participate this study. Age and history of hypertension is the dominant risk factor associated with high systolic blood pressure. When compared with the pilot age 19-39 years, 40-65 years old had 15.1-fold greater risk of high systolic blood pressure [odds ratio (adjusted ORa= 15.12; p= 0.001]. Pilot with a history of hypertension compared to those without a history of having high systolic blood pressure risk 93.2 times larger (ORa= 93.21; p= 0.001. Conclusion: Age of 40-65 years and had history of hypertension increased the riskj of systolic blood pressure among civilian pilot in Indonesia. Key words: systolic blood pressure, total flight hours, civilian pilot, Indonesia

  5. Stress Analysis of Non-Ferrous Metals Welds by Numerical Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravarikova Helena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal energy welded material unevenly heated and thus supports the creation of tension. During the fusing process welding transient tensions generated in the welded material. Generation of the transient tensions depends on the thermal expansion and fixed permanently welded parts. Tensions are the result of the interaction of material particles. For welded parts and constructions it is necessary to know the size and direction of application of tensions. The emerging tensions can cause local change or a total deformation of welded materials. Deformations and residual stresses impair the performance of a welded construction, reduces the stability of the parts. To reduce or eliminate of action or a screening direction stresses and strains it is necessary to know the mechanism of their emergence. It is now possible to examine the emergence of tensions numerical experiments on any model using numerical simulation using FEM. Results of numerical experiment is the analysis of stress and deformation course. In the plane the tension it divided into normal σ and τ tangential folders. Decomposition stress on components simplifies the stress analysis. The results obtained from numerical analysis are correct to predict the stress distribution and size. The paper presents the results of numerical experiments stress analysis solutions fillet welds using FEM numerical simulation of welding of non-ferrous metals.

  6. NIF total neutron yield diagnostic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Gary W.; Ruiz, Carlos L.

    2001-01-01

    We have designed a total neutron yield diagnostic for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) which is based on the activation of In and Cu samples. The particular approach that we have chosen is one in which we calibrate the entire counting system and which we call the ''F factor'' method. In this method, In and/or Cu samples are exposed to known sources of DD and DT neutrons. The activated samples are then counted with an appropriate system: a high purity Ge detector for In and a NaI coincidence system for Cu. We can then calculate a calibration factor, which relates measured activity to total neutron yield. The advantage of this approach is that specific knowledge of such quantities as cross sections and detector efficiencies is not needed. Unless the actual scattering environment of the NIF can be mocked up in the calibration experiment, the F factor will have to be modified using the results of a numerical simulation of the NIF scattering environment. In this article, the calibration factor methodology will be discussed and experimental results for the calibration factors will be presented. Total NIF neutron yields of 10 9 --10 19 can be measured with this method assuming a 50 cm stand-off distance can be employed for the lower yields

  7. Microsomal epoxide hydrolase gene polymorphisms and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A comprehensive meta-analysis

    OpenAIRE

    LI, HUI; FU, WEI-PING; HONG, ZE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    Microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX1) is an enzyme involved in the detoxification the products of smoking and is proposed to be a genetic factor for the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Two functional polymorphisms of EPHX1, T113C and A139G, have been analyzed in numerous studies to assess the COPD risk attributed to these variants. However, the conclusions were controversial. We performed a comprehensive meta-analysis to clarify these findings. A total of 24 studie...

  8. Numerical method for wave forces acting on partially perforated caisson

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Feng; Tang, Xiao-cheng; Jin, Zhao; Zhang, Li; Chen, Hong-zhou

    2015-04-01

    The perforated caisson is widely applied to practical engineering because of its great advantages in effectively wave energy consumption and cost reduction. The attentions of many scientists were paid to the fluid-structure interaction between wave and perforated caisson studies, but until now, most concerns have been put on theoretical analysis and experimental model set up. In this paper, interaction between the wave and the partial perforated caisson in a 2D numerical wave flume is investigated by means of the renewed SPH algorithm, and the mathematical equations are in the form of SPH numerical approximation based on Navier-Stokes equations. The validity of the SPH mathematical method is examined and the simulated results are compared with the results of theoretical models, meanwhile the complex hydrodynamic characteristics when the water particles flow in or out of a wave absorbing chamber are analyzed and the wave pressure distribution of the perforated caisson is also addressed here. The relationship between the ratio of total horizontal force acting on caisson under regular waves and its influence factors is examined. The data show that the numerical calculation of the ratio of total horizontal force meets the empirical regression equation very well. The simulations of SPH about the wave nonlinearity and breaking are briefly depicted in the paper, suggesting that the advantages and great potentiality of the SPH method is significant compared with traditional methods.

  9. Incidence of and risk factors for postoperative urinary retention in fast-track total hip and knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Lars; Bogø, Stina; Raaschou, Sofie

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Postoperative urinary retention (POUR) is a clinical challenge, but there is no scientific evidence for treatment principles. We describe the incidence of and predictive factors for POUR in fast-track total hip (THA) and knee arthroplasty (TKA). PATIENTS AND METHODS......, and preoperative international prostate symptom score (IPSS) were compared between catheterized and non-catheterized patients. RESULTS: The incidence of POUR was 40% (range between departments: 30-55%). Median bladder volume evacuated by catheterization was 0.6 (0.1-1.9) L. Spinal anesthesia increased the risk...... was 40%, with spinal anesthesia and increased IPSS in males as predictive factors. The large variation in perioperative bladder management and in bladder volumes evacuated by catheterization calls for randomized studies to define evidence-based principles for treatment of POUR in the future....

  10. An algorithm for total variation regularized photoacoustic imaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yiqiu; Görner, Torsten; Kunis, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Recovery of image data from photoacoustic measurements asks for the inversion of the spherical mean value operator. In contrast to direct inversion methods for specific geometries, we consider a semismooth Newton scheme to solve a total variation regularized least squares problem. During the iter......Recovery of image data from photoacoustic measurements asks for the inversion of the spherical mean value operator. In contrast to direct inversion methods for specific geometries, we consider a semismooth Newton scheme to solve a total variation regularized least squares problem. During...... the iteration, each matrix vector multiplication is realized in an efficient way using a recently proposed spectral discretization of the spherical mean value operator. All theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments....

  11. An association between diet quality index for Koreans (DQI-K) and total mortality in Health Examinees Gem (HEXA-G) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Jiyeon; Lee, Yunhee; Shin, Sangah; Lee, Hwi-Won; Kim, Claire E; Lee, Jong-Koo; Lee, Sang-Ah; Kang, Daehee

    2018-06-01

    Diet quality scores or indices, based on dietary guidelines, are used to summarize dietary intake into a single numeric variable. The aim of this study was to examine the association between the modified diet quality index for Koreans (DQI-K) and mortality among Health Examinees-Gem (HEXA-G) study participants. The DQI-K was modified from the original diet quality index. A total of 134,547 participants (45,207 men and 89,340 women) from the HEXA-G study (2004 and 2013) were included. The DQI-K is based on eight components: 1) daily protein intake, 2) percent of energy from fat, 3) percent of energy from saturated fat, 4) daily cholesterol intake, 5) daily whole-grain intake, 6) daily fruit intake, 7) daily vegetable intake, and 8) daily sodium intake. The association between all-cause mortality and the DQI-K was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression models. Hazard ratios and confidence intervals were estimated after adjusting for age, gender, income, smoking status, alcohol drinking, body mass index, and total energy intake. The total DQI-K score was calculated by summing the scores of the eight components (range 0-9). In the multivariable adjusted models, with good diet quality (score 0-4) as a reference, poor diet quality (score 5-9) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratios = 1.23, 95% confidence intervals = 1.06-1.43). Moreover, a one-unit increase in DQI-K score resulted in a 6% higher mortality risk. A poor diet quality DQI-K score was associated with an increased risk of mortality. The DQI-K in the present study may be used to assess the diet quality of Korean adults.

  12. Association between fixation technique and revision risk in total hip arthroplasty patients younger than 55 years of age. Results from the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. B.; Mehnert, F.; Havelin, L. I.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To evaluate implant survival following primary total hip replacement (THR) in younger patients. To describe the diversity in use of cup-stem implant combinations. Design: 29,558 primary THRs osteoarthritis (OA) patients younger than 55 years of age performed from 1995 through 2011 were...... identified using the Nordic Arthroplasty Registry Association database. We estimated adjusted relative risk (aRR) of revision with 95% confidence interval (CI) using Cox regression. Results: In general, no difference was observed between uncemented and cemented implants in terms of risk of any revision...

  13. Numerical simulation of time-dependent deformations under hygral and thermal transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelfstra, P.E.

    1987-01-01

    Some basic concepts of numerical simulation of the formation of the microstructure of HCP are outlined. The aim is to replace arbitrary terms like aging by more realistic terms like bond density in the xerogel and bonds between hydrating particles of HCP. Actual state parameters such as temperature, humidity and degree of hydration can be determined under transient hygral and thermal conditions by solving numerically a series of appropriate coupled differential equations with given boundary conditions. Shrinkage of a composite structure without crack formation, based on calculated moisture distributions, has been determined with numerical concrete codes. The influence of crack formation, tensile strain-hardening and softening on the total deformation of a quasi-homogeneous drying material has been studied by means of model based on FEM. The difference between shrinkage without crack formation and shrinkage with crack formation can be quantified. Drying shrinkage and creep of concrete cannot be separated. The total deformation depends on the superimposed stress fields. Transient hygral deformation can be realistically predicted if the concept of point properties is applied rigorously. Transient thermal deformation has to be dealt with in the same way. (orig./HP)

  14. Risk evaluation for structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freudenthal, A.M.; Schueller, G.I.

    1976-01-01

    The basic principles of the risk analysis, which is based on classical statistics is discussed. The significance of the Asymptotic (Extreme Value) distributions as well as the method of basing the level of acceptable risk on economical optimization procedures is pointed out. The application of the risk analysis to special type structures such as fixed offshore platforms, television towers, reactor containments and the reliability of reactor components under creep and fatigue load is elaborated by carrying out numerical examples. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy for cutaneous lymphoma : Minimal risk of acute toxicities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Kai; Elsayad, Khaled; Moustakis, Christos; Haverkamp, Uwe; Eich, Hans Theodor

    2017-12-01

    Low-dose total skin electron beam therapy (TSEBT) is attracting increased interest for the effective palliative treatment of primary cutaneous T‑cell lymphoma (pCTCL). In this study, we compared toxicity profiles following various radiation doses. We reviewed the records of 60 patients who underwent TSEBT for pCTCL between 2000 and 2016 at the University Hospital of Munster. The treatment characteristics of the radiotherapy (RT) regimens and adverse events (AEs) were then analyzed and compared. In total, 67 courses of TSEBT were administered to 60 patients. Of these patients, 34 (51%) received a standard dose with a median surface dose of 30 Gy and 33 patients (49%) received a low dose with the median surface dose of 12 Gy (7 salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were administered to 5 patients). After a median follow-up of 15 months, the overall AE rate was 100%, including 38 patients (57%) with grade 2 and 7 (10%) with grade 3 AEs. Patients treated with low-dose TSEBT had significantly fewer grade 2 AEs than those with conventional dose regimens (33 vs. 79%, P dose regimen compared to those with the conventional dose regimens (6 vs. 15%, P = 0.78). Multiple/salvage low-dose TSEBT courses were not associated with an increased risk of acute AEs. Low-dose TSEBT regimens are associated with significantly fewer grade 2 acute toxicities compared with conventional doses of TSEBT. Repeated/Salvage low-dose TSEBT, however, appears to be tolerable and can even be applied safely in patients with cutaneous relapses.

  16. Risk assessment of welders` exposure to total fume in an automobile industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Risk assessment of Toxic or hazardous chemicals enables the Industrial Hygienists to make the appropriate decision in providing healthy work place. This project was conducted in an assembling plant,(4workshop of an Automobile Industry in IRAN with 2 types of welding operations, including GMAW (CO2 welding and Spot resistance welding operations. . Method and Materials: Welders` exposures were assessed via collecting 143 breathing zone air samples based on NIOSH 0500 method. Risk assessment was carried out using Singapore recommended method. .Results: Finding showed that the mean of welders exposure in GMAW and Spot resistance welding operations 5.61 ± 5.78and 2.38± 2.15 mg/m3, respectively(p<0.05. The results showed that in GMAW welders had the highe exposure in comparison with Spot resistance welders (p<0.05. The findings also demonstrated that the risk rate of GMAW welders were high, while this rate for Spot resistance was low. .Conclusion: more hygienic attention is needed for GTAW welders. Control approaches are required including effective engineering control, conduct air monitoring, biological monitoring training, adopt respiratory protection program, develop and implement safe and correct work procedures and finally reassess the risk after all the controls have been done.

  17. Residents' numeric inputting error in computerized physician order entry prescription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xue; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Kan; Wei, Dong

    2016-04-01

    Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system with embedded clinical decision support (CDS) can significantly reduce certain types of prescription error. However, prescription errors still occur. Various factors such as the numeric inputting methods in human computer interaction (HCI) produce different error rates and types, but has received relatively little attention. This study aimed to examine the effects of numeric inputting methods and urgency levels on numeric inputting errors of prescription, as well as categorize the types of errors. Thirty residents participated in four prescribing tasks in which two factors were manipulated: numeric inputting methods (numeric row in the main keyboard vs. numeric keypad) and urgency levels (urgent situation vs. non-urgent situation). Multiple aspects of participants' prescribing behavior were measured in sober prescribing situations. The results revealed that in urgent situations, participants were prone to make mistakes when using the numeric row in the main keyboard. With control of performance in the sober prescribing situation, the effects of the input methods disappeared, and urgency was found to play a significant role in the generalized linear model. Most errors were either omission or substitution types, but the proportion of transposition and intrusion error types were significantly higher than that of the previous research. Among numbers 3, 8, and 9, which were the less common digits used in prescription, the error rate was higher, which was a great risk to patient safety. Urgency played a more important role in CPOE numeric typing error-making than typing skills and typing habits. It was recommended that inputting with the numeric keypad had lower error rates in urgent situation. An alternative design could consider increasing the sensitivity of the keys with lower frequency of occurrence and decimals. To improve the usability of CPOE, numeric keyboard design and error detection could benefit from spatial

  18. A constrained optimization algorithm for total energy minimization in electronic structure calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Chao; Meza, Juan C.; Wang Linwang

    2006-01-01

    A new direct constrained optimization algorithm for minimizing the Kohn-Sham (KS) total energy functional is presented in this paper. The key ingredients of this algorithm involve projecting the total energy functional into a sequence of subspaces of small dimensions and seeking the minimizer of total energy functional within each subspace. The minimizer of a subspace energy functional not only provides a search direction along which the KS total energy functional decreases but also gives an optimal 'step-length' to move along this search direction. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate that this new direct constrained optimization algorithm can be more efficient than the self-consistent field (SCF) iteration

  19. A Numerical Study on the Improvement of Suction Performance and Hydraulic Efficiency for a Mixed-Flow Pump Impeller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Kim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical study on the improvement of suction performance and hydraulic efficiency of a mixed-flow pump by impellers. The design of these impellers was optimized using a commercial CFD (computational fluid dynamics code and DOE (design of experiments. The design variables of meridional plane and vane plane development were defined for impeller design. In DOE, variables of inlet part were selected as main design variables in meridional plane, and incidence angle was selected in vane plane development. The verification of the experiment sets that were generated by 2k factorial was done by numerical analysis. The objective functions were defined as the NPSHre (net positive suction head required, total efficiency, and total head of the impellers. The importance of the geometric design variables was analyzed using 2k factorial designs. The interaction between the NPSHre and total efficiency, according to the meridional plane and incidence angle, was discussed by analyzing the 2k factorial design results. The performance of optimally designed model was verified by experiments and numerical analysis and the reliability of the model was retained by comparison of numerical analysis and comparative analysis with the reference model.

  20. Evaluation of Postural Stability and Fall Risk in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Inanir

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influences of Ankylosing spondylitis on postural balance and the risk of falls. Methods: A total of 73 sobjects were recruited for the study, including 36 with AS (17 men, 19 women and 37 healthy controls (19 men, 18 women. Patients were evaluated in terms of balance and risk of falls. Balance and risk of falls was assessed with the Biodex Stability System. Results: The mean age, gender and body mass index of the participants did not differ significantly between (p=0.308, p=0.724, p=0.766, respectively. When groups were evaluated in terms of postural stability indexes Overall Stability Index (OSI, Antero-Posteior Stability Index (APSI and Medio-Lateral Stability Index (MLSI had no statistically significant difference (p=0.190, p=0.437 ve p=0.144, respectively. Fall Risk Index (FRI evaluations showed that as patients’ test scores were higher than control group (p=0.001. (Table 1. Conclusions: In this study, we present numerical data that suggests that AS are associated with risk of falling. [Cukurova Med J 2013; 38(1.000: 86-91

  1. Data Shuffling--A New Masking Approach for Numerical Data

    OpenAIRE

    Krishnamurty Muralidhar; Rathindra Sarathy

    2006-01-01

    This study discusses a new procedure for masking confidential numerical data--a procedure called data shuffling--in which the values of the confidential variables are "shuffled" among observations. The shuffled data provides a high level of data utility and minimizes the risk of disclosure. From a practical perspective, data shuffling overcomes reservations about using perturbed or modified confidential data because it retains all the desirable properties of perturbation methods and performs ...

  2. Informed consent: do information pamphlets improve post-operative risk-recall in patients undergoing total thyroidectomy: prospective randomized control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsaffar, Hussain; Wilson, Lindsay; Kamdar, Dev P; Sultanov, Faizullo; Enepekides, Danny; Higgins, Kevin M

    2016-02-13

    Informed consent consists of basic five elements: voluntarism, capacity, disclosure, understanding, and ultimate decision-making. Physician disclosure, patient understanding, and information retention are all essential in the doctor-patient relationship. This is inclusive of helping patients make and manage their decisions and expectations better and also to deal with any consequences and/or complications that arise. This study investigates whether giving patients procedure-specific handouts pre-operatively as part of the established informed consent process significantly improves overall risk-recall following surgery. These handouts outline the anticipated peri-operative risks and complications associated with total thyroidectomy, as well as the corrective measures to address complications. In addition, the influence of potential confounders affecting risk-recall, such as anxiety and pre-existing memory disturbance, are also examined. Consecutive adult (≥18 years old) patients undergoing total thyroidectomy at a single academic tertiary care referral centre are included. Participants are randomly assigned into either the experimental group (with pamphlets) or the control group by a computerized randomization system (Clinstat). All participants filled out a Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and they are tested by the physician for short-term memory loss using the Memory Impairment Screen (MIS) exam. All patients are evaluated at one week post-operatively. The written recall questionnaire test is also administered during this clinical encounter. Forty-nine patients are included--25 of them receive verbal consent only, while another 24 patients received both verbal consent and patient education information pamphlets. The overall average of correct answers for each group was 83% and 80% in the control and intervention groups, respectively, with no statistically significant differences. There are also no statistically significant differences between the

  3. Acute effect of weight loss on levels of total bilirubin in obese, cardiovascular high-risk patients: an analysis from the lead-in period of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular Outcome trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Weeke, Peter; Fosbøl, Emil Loldrup

    2009-01-01

    Low levels of bilirubin are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Weight reduction is known to reduce several cardiovascular risk factors, but effects on bilirubin levels have not been reported. We studied the response of weight loss therapy with sibutramine and life......Low levels of bilirubin are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Weight reduction is known to reduce several cardiovascular risk factors, but effects on bilirubin levels have not been reported. We studied the response of weight loss therapy with sibutramine...... and lifestyle change on levels of total bilirubin in an overweight or obese, cardiovascular high-risk population. Data from the first 4 weeks of the lead-in period of the Sibutramine Cardiovascular Outcome study were analyzed. A total of 10 198 patients provided body weight measurements before and after 4 weeks...... of sibutramine treatment (10 mg daily), of whom 1059 (10.4%) gained weight, 1467 (13.7%) lost greater than 0% to 1%, 2492 (23.2%) lost greater than 1% to 2%, 2280 (21.2%) lost greater than 2% to 3%, 1498 (13.9%) lost greater than 3% to 4%, and 1402 (13.1%) lost greater than 4% of their initial weight...

  4. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  5. SU-F-T-248: FMEA Risk Analysis Implementation (AAPM TG-100) in Total Skin Electron Irradiation Technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez-Rosello, B; Bautista-Ballesteros, J; Bonaque, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Perez-Calatayud, J [Hospital La Fe, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Clinica Benidorm, Benidorm, Alicante (Spain); Gonzalez-Sanchis, A; Lopez-Torrecilla, J; Brualla-Gonzalez, L; Garcia-Hernandez, T; Vicedo-Gonzalez, A; Granero, D; Serrano, A; Borderia, B; Solera, C [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Rosello, J [Hospital General ERESA, Valencia, Valencia (Spain); Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Total Skin Electron Irradiation (TSEI) is a radiotherapy treatment which involves irradiating the entire body surface as homogeneously as possible. It is composed of an extensive multi-step technique in which quality management requires high consumption of resources and a fluid communication between the involved staff, necessary to improve the safety of treatment. The TG-100 proposes a new perspective of quality management in radiotherapy, presenting a systematic method of risk analysis throughout the global flow of the stages through the patient. The purpose of this work has been to apply TG-100 approach to the TSEI procedure in our institution. Methods: A multidisciplinary team specifically targeting TSEI procedure was formed, that met regularly and jointly developed the process map (PM), following TG-100 guidelines of the AAPM. This PM is a visual representation of the temporal flow of steps through the patient since start until the end of his stay in the radiotherapy service. Results: This is the first stage of the full risk analysis, which is being carried out in the center. The PM provides an overview of the process and facilitates the understanding of the team members who will participate in the subsequent analysis. Currently, the team is implementing the analysis of failure modes and effects (FMEA). The failure modes of each of the steps have been identified and assessors are assigning a value of severity (S), frequency of occurrence (O) and lack of detection (D) individually. To our knowledge, this is the first PM made for the TSEI. The developed PM can be useful for those centers that intend to implement the TSEI technique. Conclusion: The PM of TSEI technique has been established, as the first stage of full risk analysis, performed in a reference center in this treatment.

  6. Use of multi-objective air pollution monitoring sites and online air pollution monitoring system for total health risk assessment in Hyderabad, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anjaneyulu, Y; Jayakumar, I; Hima Bindu, V; Sagareswar, G; Mukunda Rao, P V; Rambabu, N; Ramani, K V

    2005-08-01

    A consensus has been emerging among public health experts in developing countries that air pollution, even at current ambient levels, aggravates respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and leads to premature mortality. Recent studies have also presented well-founded theories concerning the biological mechanisms involved and the groups of people that are probably more susceptible to health effects caused or exacerbated by inhalation of ambient particulate matter (PM.). On the basis of prognostic studies carried out in Center for Environment, JNT University, Hyderabad "it has been estimated that in Hyderabad some 1,700 to 3,000 people per year die prematurely as a result of inhaling PM". These figures reflect only the effects of acute exposure to air pollution. If the long-term effects of chronic exposure are taken into account, 10,000-15,000 people a year could die prematurely in Hyderabad. This estimate of the chronic effects is based on other studies, which are not completely comparable with the Hyderabad situation. While the study designs and analyses in these other studies may indeed be different or irrelevant to Hyderabad, the fact they were carried out in other countries is irrelevant. Taking into account these considerations, a model for total health risk assessment for the city of Hyderabad, and its state of Andhra Pradesh in India has been developed using a multi-objective air pollution monitoring network and online and real time air pollution monitoring stations. For the model studies a number of potential monitoring sites were screened for general and site-specific criteria in a geographic information system (GIS) environment that may, on a local basis, affect the representativeness of the data collected. Local features that may affect either the chemical or meteorological parameters are evaluated to assure a minimum of interference. Finally, for monitoring air pollution, an online and real-time monitoring system was designed using advanced

  7. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, L Ridgway

    2011-01-01

    Computational science is fundamentally changing how technological questions are addressed. The design of aircraft, automobiles, and even racing sailboats is now done by computational simulation. The mathematical foundation of this new approach is numerical analysis, which studies algorithms for computing expressions defined with real numbers. Emphasizing the theory behind the computation, this book provides a rigorous and self-contained introduction to numerical analysis and presents the advanced mathematics that underpin industrial software, including complete details that are missing from most textbooks. Using an inquiry-based learning approach, Numerical Analysis is written in a narrative style, provides historical background, and includes many of the proofs and technical details in exercises. Students will be able to go beyond an elementary understanding of numerical simulation and develop deep insights into the foundations of the subject. They will no longer have to accept the mathematical gaps that ex...

  8. When is it safe to resume driving after total hip and total knee arthroplasty? a meta-analysis of literature on post-operative brake reaction times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velden, C A; Tolk, J J; Janssen, R P A; Reijman, M

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the current available evidence about when patients might resume driving after elective, primary total hip (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) undertaken for osteoarthritis (OA). In February 2016, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, PubMed Publisher, CINAHL, EBSCO and Google Scholar were searched for clinical studies reporting on 'THA', 'TKA', 'car driving', 'reaction time' and 'brake response time'. Two researchers (CAV and JJT) independently screened the titles and abstracts for eligibility and assessed the risk of bias. Both fixed and random effects were used to pool data and calculate mean differences (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between pre- and post-operative total brake response time (TBRT). A total of 19 studies were included. The assessment of the risk of bias showed that one study was at high risk, six studies at moderate risk and 12 studies at low risk. Meta-analysis of TBRT showed a MD decrease of 25.54 ms (95% CI -32.02 to 83.09) two weeks after right-sided THA, and of 18.19 ms (95% CI -6.13 to 42.50) four weeks after a right-sided TKA, when compared with the pre-operative value. The TBRT returned to baseline two weeks after a right-sided THA and four weeks after a right-sided TKA. These results may serve as guidelines for orthopaedic surgeons when advising patients when to resume driving. However, the advice should be individualised. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:566-76. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

  9. Fuzzy logic model to quantify risk perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukh, Julia; Dickstein, Phineas

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is a quantification of public risk perception towards the nuclear field so as to be considered in decision making whenever the public involvement is sought. The proposed model includes both qualitative factors such as familiarity and voluntariness and numerical factors influencing risk perception, such as probability of occurrence and severity of consequence. Since part of these factors can be characterized only by qualitative expressions and the determination of them are linked with vagueness, imprecision and uncertainty, the most suitable method for the risk level assessment is Fuzzy Logic, which models qualitative aspects of knowledge and reasoning processes without employing precise quantitative analyses. This work, then, offers a Fuzzy-Logic based mean of representing the risk perception by a single numerical feature, which can be weighted and accounted for in decision making procedures. (author)

  10. Risk factors for QTc interval prolongation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemskerk, Charlotte P.M.; Pereboom, Marieke; van Stralen, Karlijn; Berger, Florine A.; van den Bemt, Patricia M.L.A.; Kuijper, Aaf F.M.; van der Hoeven, Ruud T M; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K.; Becker, Matthijs L

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: Prolongation of the QTc interval may result in Torsade de Pointes, a ventricular arrhythmia. Numerous risk factors for QTc interval prolongation have been described, including the use of certain drugs. In clinical practice, there is much debate about the management of the risks involved. In

  11. Parametrical analysis on the diffuse ceiling ventilation by experimental and numerical studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Chen; Kristensen, Martin Heine; Jensen, Jakob Sølund

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims to investigate the performance of diffuse ceiling ventilation in a classroom. An experimental study is carried out in a test chamber to examine the impact of diffuse ceiling opening area on the system cooling capacity and thermal comfort. The results indicate that diffuse ceiling ....... The numerical results reveal that even distribution of heat sources gives a lower draught risk environment than centralized distribution. In addition, there is a significant increase on the draught risk with increase of room height....

  12. Numerical solution of boundary-integral equations for molecular electrostatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P

    2009-03-07

    Numerous molecular processes, such as ion permeation through channel proteins, are governed by relatively small changes in energetics. As a result, theoretical investigations of these processes require accurate numerical methods. In the present paper, we evaluate the accuracy of two approaches to simulating boundary-integral equations for continuum models of the electrostatics of solvation. The analysis emphasizes boundary-element method simulations of the integral-equation formulation known as the apparent-surface-charge (ASC) method or polarizable-continuum model (PCM). In many numerical implementations of the ASC/PCM model, one forces the integral equation to be satisfied exactly at a set of discrete points on the boundary. We demonstrate in this paper that this approach to discretization, known as point collocation, is significantly less accurate than an alternative approach known as qualocation. Furthermore, the qualocation method offers this improvement in accuracy without increasing simulation time. Numerical examples demonstrate that electrostatic part of the solvation free energy, when calculated using the collocation and qualocation methods, can differ significantly; for a polypeptide, the answers can differ by as much as 10 kcal/mol (approximately 4% of the total electrostatic contribution to solvation). The applicability of the qualocation discretization to other integral-equation formulations is also discussed, and two equivalences between integral-equation methods are derived.

  13. Forecasting Innovation Risks of Machine-Building Enterprises with the Use of Fuzzy Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fedorenko Irina A.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to solve an actual problem of assessing and forecasting the risks of innovation activity of an enterprise under uncertainty. Numerous studies dedicated to this problem suggest various qualitative and quantitative methods, however, most papers present no results of their practical application, which calls the usefulness of their use into question. With the help of the scientific and methodological approach based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the model of predicting the expected risk using fuzzy triangular numbers is proposed. All possible cases of interaction of the expected value of the studied indicator and the indicator characterizing its boundary conditions are investigated. With the help of the received formulas, the total risk of investing in an innovation project is determined depending on the boundary conditions. The index of profitability of investments is chosen as the indicator to be studied. The model allows potential investors and developers to select the optimal values of the project parameters provided that the risk is minimized.

  14. Lessons learned using water quality models to develop numeric nutrient criteria for a Gulf coast estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay is a shallow, mesotrophic estuary located in the north-central coast of the Gulf of Mexico, US. In November 2012, the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) proposed numeric total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) water quality cr...

  15. Probabilistic human health risk assessment of degradation-related chemical mixtures in heterogeneous aquifers: Risk statistics, hot spots, and preferential channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henri, Christopher V.; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; de Barros, Felipe P. J.

    2015-06-01

    The increasing presence of toxic chemicals released in the subsurface has led to a rapid growth of social concerns and the need to develop and employ models that can predict the impact of groundwater contamination on human health risk under uncertainty. Monitored natural attenuation is a common remediation action in many contamination cases. However, natural attenuation can lead to the production of daughter species of distinct toxicity that may pose challenges in pollution management strategies. The actual threat that these contaminants pose to human health depends on the interplay between the complex structure of the geological media and the toxicity of each pollutant byproduct. This work addresses human health risk for chemical mixtures resulting from the sequential degradation of a contaminant (such as a chlorinated solvent) under uncertainty through high-resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations. We systematically investigate the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity, flow connectivity, contaminant injection model, and chemical toxicity in the probabilistic characterization of health risk. We illustrate how chemical-specific travel times control the regime of the expected risk and its corresponding uncertainties. Results indicate conditions where preferential flow paths can favor the reduction of the overall risk of the chemical mixture. The overall human risk response to aquifer connectivity is shown to be nontrivial for multispecies transport. This nontriviality is a result of the interaction between aquifer heterogeneity and chemical toxicity. To quantify the joint effect of connectivity and toxicity in health risk, we propose a toxicity-based Damköhler number. Furthermore, we provide a statistical characterization in terms of low-order moments and the probability density function of the individual and total risks.

  16. [Effects decomposition in mediation analysis: a numerical example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zugna, Daniela; Richiardi, Lorenzo

    2018-01-01

    Mediation analysis aims to decompose the total effect of the exposure on the outcome into a direct effect (unmediated) and an indirect effect (mediated by a mediator). When the interest also lies on understanding whether the exposure effect differs in different sub-groups of study population or under different scenarios, the mediation analysis needs to be integrated with interaction analysis. In this setting it is necessary to decompose the total effect not only into two components, the direct and indirect effects, but other two components linked to interaction. The interaction between the exposure and the mediator in their effect on the outcome could indeed act through the effect of the exposure on the mediator or through the mediator when the mediator is not totally explained by the exposure. We describe options for decomposition, proposed in literature, of the total effect and we illustrate them through a hypothetical example of the effect of age at diagnosis of cancer on survival, mediated and unmediated by the therapeutical approach, and a numerical example.

  17. Distribution of Total Suspended Solids Concentration in a River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Hanif Asyhar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Disposal of either industrial or nonindustrial wastewater into a river has a potential to cause riverpollution. Because each load of wastewater discharged into a river contains physical, chemical, and biological parametersthat determine water quality, so that it can affect the dissolved oxygen concentration in a river. Therefore the conductedresearch was aimed to determine the pattern of pollutant dispersion in Surabaya River within the section that is closed tothe Karang Pilang Monitoring Station - Surabaya. Parameter used in this research was Total Suspended Solids (TSS. Themethod used was the finite volume method with Quadratic Upwind Interpolation Convective Kinematics (QUICK schemeby means of developing models of dispersion water pollutants in a river. The governing equation was controlled by the lawsof mass conservation, momentum conservation, and pollution transport equation. Further, these equations were solvedusing numerical calculation and followed by numerical simulation. From the numerical simulation results, it can beconcluded that the magnitude of pollutant dispersion is determined by the initial discharged TSS concentrations into theriver, however the longitudinal direction is more dominantly influenced than in lateral directions.

  18. Revision Total Hip Arthoplasty: Factors Associated with Re-Revision Surgery

    OpenAIRE

    Khatod, M; Cafri, G; Inacio, MCS; Schepps, AL; Paxton, EW; Bini, SA

    2015-01-01

    The survivorship of implants after revision total hip arthroplasty and risk factors associated with re-revision are not well defined. We evaluated the re-revision rate with use of the institutional total joint replacement registry. The purpose of this study was to determine patient, implant, and surgeon factors associated with re-revision total hip arthroplasty.A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The total joint replacement registry was used to identify patients who had undergone revi...

  19. [Factors of risk perception and risk acceptability: a contribution for the knowledge of the perception of the risk associated with blood transfusion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hergon, E; Moutel, G; Bellier, L; Hervé, C; Rouger, P

    2004-07-01

    The concept of risk cannot be limited to simply knowing the probability of occurrence and the seriousness of the damages caused. It's a matter of social construction and numerous elements contribute towards its perception and acceptability. These elements have been studied for 20 years or so. Some of these elements influence risk perception such as awfulness, unfamiliarity, the number of people exposed to it, other elements influence its acceptance such as individual perceptions, social factors, ethics and equity. Their knowledge allows a better understanding of the evolution of perception and of the risk acceptability in general and transfusion risk in particular.

  20. Image Restoration Based on the Hybrid Total-Variation-Type Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baoli Shi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a hybrid total-variation-type model for the image restoration problem based on combining advantages of the ROF model with the LLT model. Since two L1-norm terms in the proposed model make it difficultly solved by using some classically numerical methods directly, we first employ the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM to solve a general form of the proposed model. Then, based on the ADMM and the Moreau-Yosida decomposition theory, a more efficient method called the proximal point method (PPM is proposed and the convergence of the proposed method is proved. Some numerical results demonstrate the viability and efficiency of the proposed model and methods.

  1. Several peaks of total current in Trichel pulse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotov, O.; Golota, V.; Kadolin, B.; Mankovskyi, S.; Ostroushko, V.; Pashchenko, I.; Taran, G.; Zavada, L.

    2015-01-01

    The numerical simulations of negative corona at constant voltage in Trichel pulse mode are carried out in assumptions of presence and absence of photoemission from cathode. In absence of photoemission two peaks of total current or the step before the main peak were obtained for very small values of ion-electron emission coefficient. In presence of photoemission there were observed several maximums, connected with instability development of the process based on radiation of photons, photoemission, and avalanche multiplication

  2. Numerical Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.; Braithwaite, David W.

    2016-01-01

    In this review, we attempt to integrate two crucial aspects of numerical development: learning the magnitudes of individual numbers and learning arithmetic. Numerical magnitude development involves gaining increasingly precise knowledge of increasing ranges and types of numbers: from non-symbolic to small symbolic numbers, from smaller to larger…

  3. Fordelinger af serum total kolesterol i befolkninger med varierende risiko for hjerte-karsygdom

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, P; Voss, A; Hørder, M

    1990-01-01

    , it was found that serum total cholesterol increases with age in all groups. A distinct sex difference was observed in the majority of investigations: in the age groups under 25 years and over 50 years, women have higher serum total cholesterol values than men while, in the age group 25-50 years, men have......By means of search in the literature and subsequent meta-analysis, the authors have described the serum total cholesterol values in three different risk groups for cardiovascular disease. High total serum cholesterol levels were associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. In addition...

  4. Theoretical considerations for SRAM total-dose hardening

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Francis, P.; Flandre, D.; Colinge, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    The theoretical hardness against total dose of the six-transistor SRAM cell is investigated in detail. An explicit analytical expression of the maximum tolerable threshold voltage shift is derived for two cross-coupled inverters. A numerical method is used to explore the hardness of the read and write operations. Both N- and P-channel access transistors designs are considered and their respective advantages are compared. The study points out that the radiation hardness mainly relies on the technology. Results obtained with the very robust Gate-All-Around process are finally presented

  5. Total petroleum hydrocarbons and heavy metals in the surface sediments of Bohai Bay, China: long-term variations in pollution status and adverse biological risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ran; Qin, Xuebo; Peng, Shitao; Deng, Shihuai

    2014-06-15

    Surface sediments collected from 2001 to 2011 were analyzed for total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) and five heavy metals. The sediment concentration ranges of TPH, Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Hg were 6.3-535 μg/g, 58-332 μg/g, 7.2-63 μg/g, 4.3-138 μg/g, 0-0.98μg/g, and 0.10-0.68 μg/g, respectively. These results met the highest marine sediment quality standards in China, indicating that the sediment was fairly clean. However, based on the effects range-median (ERM) quotient method, the calculated values for all of the sampling sites were higher than 0.10, suggesting that there was a potential adverse biological risk in Bohai Bay. According to the calculated results, the biological risk decreased from 2001 to 2007 and increased afterwards. High-risk sites were mainly distributed along the coast. This study suggests that anthropogenic influences might be responsible for the potential risk of adverse biological effects from TPH and heavy metals in Bohai Bay. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection in pediatric oncology patients with a totally implantable venous access port: A cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana Taveira, Michelle Ribeiro; Lima, Luciana Santana; de Araújo, Cláudia Corrêa; de Mello, Maria Júlia Gonçalves

    2017-02-01

    Totally implantable venous access ports (TIVAPs) are used for prolonged central venous access, allowing the infusion of chemotherapy and other fluids and improving the quality of life of children with cancer. TIVAPs were developed to reduce the infection rates associated with central venous catheters; however, infectious events remain common and have not been fully investigated in pediatric oncology patients. A retrospective cohort was formed to investigate risk factors for central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) in pediatric cancer patients. Sociodemographic, clinical, and TIVAP insertion-related variables were evaluated, with the endpoint being the first CLABSI. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to determine CLABSI-free catheter survival. Overall, 188 children were evaluated over 77,541 catheter days, with 94 being diagnosed with CLABSI (50%). Although coagulase-negative staphylococci were the pathogens most commonly isolated, Gram-negative microorganisms (46.8%) were also prevalent. In the multivariate analysis, factors that increased the risk for CLABSI were TIVAP insertion prior to chemotherapy (risk ratio [RR] = 1.56; P Risk factors for CLABSI in pediatric cancer patients with a TIVAP may be related to the severity of the child's condition at catheter insertion. Insertion of the catheter before chemotherapy and unfavorable conditions such as malnutrition and bone marrow aplasia can increase the risk of CLABSI. Protocols must be revised and surveillance increased over the first 10 weeks of treatment. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and risk of fractures: an updated meta-analysis from the National Osteoporosis Foundation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, C M; Alexander, D D; Boushey, C J; Dawson-Hughes, B; Lappe, J M; LeBoff, M S; Liu, S; Looker, A C; Wallace, T C; Wang, D D

    2016-01-01

    The aim was to meta-analyze randomized controlled trials of calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and fracture prevention. Meta-analysis showed a significant 15 % reduced risk of total fractures (summary relative risk estimate [SRRE], 0.85; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.98) and a 30 % reduced risk of hip fractures (SRRE, 0.70; 95 % CI, 0.56-0.87). Calcium plus vitamin D supplementation has been widely recommended to prevent osteoporosis and subsequent fractures; however, considerable controversy exists regarding the association of such supplementation and fracture risk. The aim was to conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials [RCTs] of calcium plus vitamin D supplementation and fracture prevention in adults. A PubMed literature search was conducted for the period from July 1, 2011 through July 31, 2015. RCTs reporting the effect of calcium plus vitamin D supplementation on fracture incidence were selected from English-language studies. Qualitative and quantitative information was extracted; random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to generate summary relative risk estimates (SRREs) for total and hip fractures. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using Cochran's Q test and the I (2) statistic, and potential for publication bias was assessed. Of the citations retrieved, eight studies including 30,970 participants met criteria for inclusion in the primary analysis, reporting 195 hip fractures and 2231 total fractures. Meta-analysis of all studies showed that calcium plus vitamin D supplementation produced a statistically significant 15 % reduced risk of total fractures (SRRE, 0.85; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.98) and a 30 % reduced risk of hip fractures (SRRE, 0.70; 95 % CI, 0.56-0.87). Numerous sensitivity and subgroup analyses produced similar summary associations. A limitation is that this study utilized data from subgroup analysis of the Women's Health Initiative. This meta-analysis of RCTs supports the use of calcium plus

  8. Numerical Optimization in Microfluidics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kristian Ejlebjærg

    2017-01-01

    Numerical modelling can illuminate the working mechanism and limitations of microfluidic devices. Such insights are useful in their own right, but one can take advantage of numerical modelling in a systematic way using numerical optimization. In this chapter we will discuss when and how numerical...... optimization is best used....

  9. Relativistic total energy and chemical potential of heavy atoms and positive ions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, S.H.; Grout, P.J.; March, N.H.

    1984-01-01

    The relativistic Thomas-Fermi theory, with a finite nucleus, is used to study the variation of the chemical potential μ with atomic number Z and number of electrons N (N <= Z). The difference between the total energy of positive ions and that of the corresponding neutral atom has been obtained. The scaling predictions are confirmed by numerical calculations. The first principles calculation of the relativistic Thomas-Fermi total energy of neutral atoms is also studied. (author)

  10. Numerical simulation methods of fires in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keski-Rahkonen, O.; Bjoerkman, J.; Heikkilae, L.

    1992-01-01

    Fire is a significant hazard to the safety of nuclear power plants (NPP). Fire may be serious accident as such, but even small fire at a critical point in a NPP may cause an accident much more serious than fire itself. According to risk assessments a fire may be an initial cause or a contributing factor in a large part of reactor accidents. At the Fire Technology and the the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) fire safety research for NPPs has been carried out in a large extent since 1985. During years 1988-92 a project Advanced Numerical Modelling in Nuclear Power Plants (PALOME) was carried out. In the project the level of numerical modelling for fire research in Finland was improved by acquiring, preparing for use and developing numerical fire simulation programs. Large scale test data of the German experimental program (PHDR Sicherheitsprogramm in Kernforschungscentral Karlsruhe) has been as reference. The large scale tests were simulated by numerical codes and results were compared to calculations carried out by others. Scientific interaction with outstanding foreign laboratories and scientists has been an important part of the project. This report describes the work of PALOME-project carried out at the Fire Technology Laboratory only. A report on the work at the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory will be published separatively. (au)

  11. Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Flow Properties of Supersonic Helium-Air Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Steven A. E.; Veltin, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Heated high speed subsonic and supersonic jets operating on- or off-design are a source of noise that is not yet fully understood. Helium-air mixtures can be used in the correct ratio to simulate the total temperature ratio of heated air jets and hence have the potential to provide inexpensive and reliable flow and acoustic measurements. This study presents a combination of flow measurements of helium-air high speed jets and numerical simulations of similar helium-air mixture and heated air jets. Jets issuing from axisymmetric convergent and convergent-divergent nozzles are investigated, and the results show very strong similarity with heated air jet measurements found in the literature. This demonstrates the validity of simulating heated high speed jets with helium-air in the laboratory, together with the excellent agreement obtained in the presented data between the numerical predictions and the experiments. The very close match between the numerical and experimental data also validates the frozen chemistry model used in the numerical simulation.

  12. Hindi Numerals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bright, William

    In most languages encountered by linguists, the numerals, considered as a paradigmatic set, constitute a morpho-syntactic problem of only moderate complexity. The Indo-Aryan language family of North India, however, presents a curious contrast. The relatively regular numeral system of Sanskrit, as it has developed historically into the modern…

  13. Numerical tables on physical and chemical analyses of Rhine water 1983

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The numerical tables contain the measuring results of the physical-chemical studies on the Rhine water for the year 1983. The tables are arranged by general parameters, organic matter, eutrophicating substances, anorganic matter, metals, organic micropollution as well as by radioactivity (total alpha- or beta- and T-activity). (MM) [de

  14. Methods of numerical relativity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piran, T.

    1983-01-01

    Numerical Relativity is an alternative to analytical methods for obtaining solutions for Einstein equations. Numerical methods are particularly useful for studying generation of gravitational radiation by potential strong sources. The author reviews the analytical background, the numerical analysis aspects and techniques and some of the difficulties involved in numerical relativity. (Auth.)

  15. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  16. A Numerical Study of Effects of the Manufacture Perturbations to Contacts of the Total Hip Replacement

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Koukal, M.; Fuis, Vladimír; Florian, Z.; Janíček, P.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2011), s. 33-42 ISSN 1802-1484 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20760514 Keywords : total hip replacement * FEM * roundness * contact pressure * frictional moment Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics

  17. Numerical tools for lightning protection of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Søren Find; Mieritz, Casper Falkenstrøm; Candela Garolera, Anna

    2013-01-01

    The present paper presents the different numerical tools used for lightning protection analysis. Initially the risk assessment considering attachment point distribution and location of vulnerable points on the wind turbine will be discussed, where also the term Lightning Protection Coordination...... (LPC) is introduced. When these two tools have been used to place air terminations on blades and defining the necessary insulation levels of interior parts, the voltage and current distribution along the blade structure can be calculated. This will put restrictions on the blade design, and define...

  18. Development of a numerical 2-dimensional beach evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the description of a 2-dimensional numerical model constructed for the simulation of beach evolution under the action of wind waves only over the arbitrary land and sea topographies around existing coastal structures and formations. The developed beach evolution numerical model...... is composed of 4 submodels: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on an energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the nonlinear shallow water equations...... to compute the nearshore depth-averaged wave-induced current velocities and mean water level changes, a sediment transport model to compute the local total sediment transport rates occurring under the action of wind waves, and a bottom evolution model to compute the bed level changes in time based...

  19. Clinicopathological Risk Factors and Biochemical Predictors of Safe Discharge after Total Thyroidectomy and Central Compartment Node Dissection for Thyroid Cancer: A Prospective Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-mi Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To determine the clinicopathological risk factors and reliable biochemical predictors of the development of hypocalcemic symptoms after total thyroidectomy on the basis of serum calcium and intact parathyroid hormone (PTH levels measured 1 hour after surgery, a prospective study was performed on 817 patients who underwent a total thyroidectomy with central compartment node dissection (CCND due to well-differentiated thyroid cancer. We evaluated the correlations between hypocalcemic symptom development and clinicopathological factors. And the predictability for hypocalcemic symptom development of intact PTH cut-offs (<10 pg/mL and <20 pg/mL, resp. according to serum calcium level subgroup was analyzed. Female gender (P<0.001 was the only independent risk factor for hypocalcemic symptom development in multivariate regression analysis. The negative predictive value (NPV of intact PTH, signifying nondevelopment of hypocalcemic symptoms, was higher than the positive predictive value (PPV which signified development of hypocalcemic symptoms. In addition, when we applied the different adoption of the intact PTH cut-off according to serum calcium level, we could obtain more increased NPVs. A female gender and the application of more specific cut-offs for intact PTH according to the serum calcium levels measured 1 hour after surgery may help the patients to be more safely discharged.

  20. Two-fluid Numerical Simulations of Solar Spicules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuźma, Błażej; Murawski, Kris; Kayshap, Pradeep; Wójcik, Darek [Group of Astrophysics, University of Maria Curie-Skłodowska, ul. Radziszewskiego 10, 20-031 Lublin (Poland); Srivastava, Abhishek Kumar; Dwivedi, Bhola N., E-mail: blazejkuzma1@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi-221005 (India)

    2017-11-10

    We aim to study the formation and evolution of solar spicules by means of numerical simulations of the solar atmosphere. With the use of newly developed JOANNA code, we numerically solve two-fluid (for ions + electrons and neutrals) equations in 2D Cartesian geometry. We follow the evolution of a spicule triggered by the time-dependent signal in ion and neutral components of gas pressure launched in the upper chromosphere. We use the potential magnetic field, which evolves self-consistently, but mainly plays a passive role in the dynamics. Our numerical results reveal that the signal is steepened into a shock that propagates upward into the corona. The chromospheric cold and dense plasma lags behind this shock and rises into the corona with a mean speed of 20–25 km s{sup −1}. The formed spicule exhibits the upflow/downfall of plasma during its total lifetime of around 3–4 minutes, and it follows the typical characteristics of a classical spicule, which is modeled by magnetohydrodynamics. The simulated spicule consists of a dense and cold core that is dominated by neutrals. The general dynamics of ion and neutral spicules are very similar to each other. Minor differences in those dynamics result in different widths of both spicules with increasing rarefaction of the ion spicule in time.

  1. Hydrogen risk and associated calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forestier, A.; Lecomte, M.; Studer, M.

    1993-01-01

    Hydrogen risk is one aspect that can't be neglected by nuclear safety. On the other side, experimental data are very difficult to simulate the real conditions of an accident. So the numerical way can be an aid to the comprehension and the modelling of the risk. PLEXUS code, with its previous developments seems a good candidate to simulate this problem

  2. Finger-Based Numerical Skills Link Fine Motor Skills to Numerical Development in Preschoolers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suggate, Sebastian; Stoeger, Heidrun; Fischer, Ursula

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies investigating the association between fine-motor skills (FMS) and mathematical skills have lacked specificity. In this study, we test whether an FMS link to numerical skills is due to the involvement of finger representations in early mathematics. We gave 81 pre-schoolers (mean age of 4 years, 9 months) a set of FMS measures and numerical tasks with and without a specific finger focus. Additionally, we used receptive vocabulary and chronological age as control measures. FMS linked more closely to finger-based than to nonfinger-based numerical skills even after accounting for the control variables. Moreover, the relationship between FMS and numerical skill was entirely mediated by finger-based numerical skills. We concluded that FMS are closely related to early numerical skill development through finger-based numerical counting that aids the acquisition of mathematical mental representations.

  3. Numerical calculation of the cross section by the solution of the wave equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drewko, J.

    1982-01-01

    A numerical method of solving of the wave equation is described for chosen vibrational eigenfunctions. A prepared program calculates the total cross sections for the resonant vibrational excitation for diatomic molecules on the basis of introduced molecular data. (author)

  4. Calculation of total and ionization cross sections for electron scattering by primary benzene compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Suvam; Naghma, Rahla; Kaur, Jaspreet; Antony, Bobby

    2016-07-01

    The total and ionization cross sections for electron scattering by benzene, halobenzenes, toluene, aniline, and phenol are reported over a wide energy domain. The multi-scattering centre spherical complex optical potential method has been employed to find the total elastic and inelastic cross sections. The total ionization cross section is estimated from total inelastic cross section using the complex scattering potential-ionization contribution method. In the present article, the first theoretical calculations for electron impact total and ionization cross section have been performed for most of the targets having numerous practical applications. A reasonable agreement is obtained compared to existing experimental observations for all the targets reported here, especially for the total cross section.

  5. Calculation of total and ionization cross sections for electron scattering by primary benzene compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Suvam; Naghma, Rahla; Kaur, Jaspreet; Antony, Bobby, E-mail: bka.ism@gmail.com [Atomic and Molecular Physics Lab, Department of Applied Physics, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad (India)

    2016-07-21

    The total and ionization cross sections for electron scattering by benzene, halobenzenes, toluene, aniline, and phenol are reported over a wide energy domain. The multi-scattering centre spherical complex optical potential method has been employed to find the total elastic and inelastic cross sections. The total ionization cross section is estimated from total inelastic cross section using the complex scattering potential-ionization contribution method. In the present article, the first theoretical calculations for electron impact total and ionization cross section have been performed for most of the targets having numerous practical applications. A reasonable agreement is obtained compared to existing experimental observations for all the targets reported here, especially for the total cross section.

  6. Tranexamic Acid Reduced the Percent of Total Blood Volume Lost During Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kristen E; Butler, Elissa K; Barrack, Tara; Ledonio, Charles T; Forte, Mary L; Cohn, Claudia S; Polly, David W

    2017-01-01

    Multilevel posterior spine fusion is associated with significant intraoperative blood loss. Tranexamic acid is an antifibrinolytic agent that reduces intraoperative blood loss. The goal of this study was to compare the percent of total blood volume lost during posterior spinal fusion (PSF) with or without tranexamic acid in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Thirty-six AIS patients underwent PSF in 2011-2014; the last half (n=18) received intraoperative tranexamic acid. We retrieved relevant demographic, hematologic, intraoperative and outcomes information from medical records. The primary outcome was the percent of total blood volume lost, calculated from estimates of intraoperative blood loss (numerator) and estimated total blood volume per patient (denominator, via Nadler's equations). Unadjusted outcomes were compared using standard statistical tests. Tranexamic acid and no-tranexamic acid groups were similar (all p>0.05) in mean age (16.1 vs. 15.2 years), sex (89% vs. 83% female), body mass index (22.2 vs. 20.2 kg/m2), preoperative hemoglobin (13.9 vs. 13.9 g/dl), mean spinal levels fused (10.5 vs. 9.6), osteotomies (1.6 vs. 0.9) and operative duration (6.1 hours, both). The percent of total blood volume lost (TBVL) was significantly lower in the tranexamic acid-treated vs. no-tranexamic acid group (median 8.23% vs. 14.30%, p = 0.032); percent TBVL per level fused was significantly lower with tranexamic acid than without it (1.1% vs. 1.8%, p=0.048). Estimated blood loss (milliliters) was similar across groups. Tranexamic acid significantly reduced the percentage of total blood volume lost versus no tranexamic acid in AIS patients who underwent PSF using a standardized blood loss measure.Level of Evidence: 3. Institutional Review Board status: This medical record chart review (minimal risk) study was approved by the University of Minnesota Institutional Review Board.

  7. Elevated levels of numerous cytokines in drainage fluid after primary total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Heide, Huub J L; van der Kraan, Peter M; Rijnberg, Willard J; Buma, Pieter; Schreurs, B Willem

    2010-12-01

    As cytokines are involved in wound healing and other inflammatory processes, it could be valuable to measure their levels at the operative site. This study was conducted to investigate whether different cytokines are measurable in drainage fluid and, when measurable, whether we can find a difference in cytokine levels between one and six hours postoperatively. Samples from the drainage system in 30 consecutive patients undergoing primary total hip replacement were collected at one and six hours after closure of the wound. Levels of several cytokines were measured in the drainage fluids. A significant elevation of almost all cytokines was observed between the sample after one hour and six hours postoperatively. We found a strong correlation between the different pro-inflammatory cytokines. The IL-6 to IL-10 ratio were also raised, showing a pro-inflammatory predominance. Levels were much higher than those previously shown in serum.

  8. Representation of Numerical and Non-Numerical Order in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berteletti, Ilaria; Lucangeli, Daniela; Zorzi, Marco

    2012-01-01

    The representation of numerical and non-numerical ordered sequences was investigated in children from preschool to grade 3. The child's conception of how sequence items map onto a spatial scale was tested using the Number-to-Position task (Siegler & Opfer, 2003) and new variants of the task designed to probe the representation of the alphabet…

  9. A NUMERICAL APPLICATION TO PREDICT THE RESISTANCE AND WAVE PATTERN OF KRISO CONTAINER SHIP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Hakan Ozdemir

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the computational results for KRISO Container Ship (KCS are presented. CFD analyses are performed to simulate free surface flow around KCS by using RANS approach with success. Also the complicated turbulent flow zone behind the ship is well simulated. The RANS equations and the non-linear free surface boundary conditions are discretized by means of a finite volume scheme. The numerical methodology is found to be appropriate for simulating the turbulent flow around a ship in order to estimate ship total resistance and free surface. By the numerical results, total resistance is calculated for the ship model and the result is satisfactory with regard to the experimental one. As a result of well captured free surface, the wave elevation on/around the hull is compared with the experimental results.

  10. Total shoulder replacement in rheumatoid arthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sneppen, O; Fruensgaard, S; Johannsen, Hans Viggo

    1996-01-01

    A prospective study of 62 Neer mark II total shoulder arthroplasties performed during the period from 1981 to 1990 on 51 patients with rheumatoid arthritis was undertaken to evaluate factors associated with component loosening and proximal humeral migration. Thirty-two (51%) showed proximal......, range of movement, abduction force, or function. The risk of clinical asymptomatic loosening is a relatively late complication that is eventually followed by pronounced bone destruction related to the loose component. Long-term radiographic control of total shoulders with rheumatoid arthritis...... is recommended. Hemiarthroplasty with a cemented humeral prosthesis may be a better treatment in the end stage of rheumatoid arthritis of the shoulder....

  11. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  12. A Knowledge-Based Model of Audit Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Dhar, Vasant; Lewis, Barry; Peters, James

    1988-01-01

    Within the academic and professional auditing communities, there has been growing concern about how to accurately assess the various risks associated with performing an audit. These risks are difficult to conceptualize in terms of numeric estimates. This article discusses the development of a prototype computational model (computer program) that assesses one of the major audit risks -- inherent risk. This program bases most of its inferencing activities on a qualitative model of a typical bus...

  13. BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS INTO SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandra-Codruta Popescu (Bîzoi); Cristian-Gabriel Bîzoi

    2015-01-01

    Literature has focused largely on the field of supply chain risk management. Numerous risks occur within supply chain management. Until lately, behavioural risks (implying large amount of losses) have been neglected and considered not relevant. In this paper we provide an analysis of the importance of including behavioural research in logistics and supply chain risk management, what has been written so far and potential future research directions. Until now, literature on logistics and supply...

  14. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process

  15. New risk factors for atherosclerosis and patient risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fruchart, Jean-Charles; Nierman, Melchior C.; Stroes, Erik S. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Duriez, Patrick

    2004-01-01

    Advances in our understanding of the ways in which the traditional cardiovascular risk factors, including standard lipid (eg, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and nonlipid (eg, hypertension) risk factors, interact to initiate

  16. Metallic Modular Taper Junctions in Total Hip Arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy McTighe

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of modularity in total hip arthroplasty (THA in the 1980s and 1990s was based on the fact that the benefit of these design features outweighed the risk. The use of metallic modular junctions presents a unique set of advantages and problems for use in THA. The advantages include improvement in fit and fill of the implant to bone, restoration of joint mechanics, reduced complications in revision surgery and reduction of costly inventory. However, the risks or concerns are a little harder to identify and deal with. Certainly corrosion, and fatigue failure are the two most prevalent concerns but now the specifics of fretting wear and corrosive wear increasing particulate debris and the potential biological response is having an impact on the design and potential longevity of the reconstructed hip. Material and designs are facing a shorter life expectancy than what was previously thought, mostly due to an increasing level of physical activity by the patient. Because there are no accurate laboratory test whereby the service life and performance of these implants can be predicted, early controlled clinical evaluations are necessary. Early publication of testing and clinical impressions should be encouraged in an attempt to reduce exposure to potential at risk patients, implants and material. The reduction and possible elimination of risks will require a balancing of all the variables requiring a multidisciplinary endeavor. This paper is designed to review the risk factors, and benefits of modular junctions in total hip arthroplasty (THA. Also some basic engineering principals that can reduce risk factors and improve functionality of modular junctions.

  17. Retailers' risk management and vertical arrangements in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun; Zachmann, Georg

    2012-01-01

    The failure of the asset-light retailer's organizational model is indicative of the incapacity of this organizational structure to manage efficiently the combination of sourcing and market risks in the current market environment. Because of the structural dimensions of electricity's market risks, a retailer's level of risk exposure is unknown ex ante and will only be revealed ex post when consumption is known. In contrast to the “textbook model” of electricity reforms, the paper demonstrates through numerical simulations that in the current market context pure portfolios of contracts are incomplete risk management instruments compared to physical hedging. The latter is critical to overcome the asset-light retailer's curse. - Highlights: ► The paper analyses the risks faced by electricity retailers. ► We study the limits of contractual hedging. ► Through numerical simulations, we compare the risk profiles of different portfolios of hedging. ► We demonstrate the superior efficiency of physical hedging.

  18. Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

  19. Risk-based audit selection of dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asseldonk, M A P M; Velthuis, A G J

    2014-02-01

    Dairy farms are audited in the Netherlands on numerous process standards. Each farm is audited once every 2 years. Increasing demands for cost-effectiveness in farm audits can be met by introducing risk-based principles. This implies targeting subpopulations with a higher risk of poor process standards. To select farms for an audit that present higher risks, a statistical analysis was conducted to test the relationship between the outcome of farm audits and bulk milk laboratory results before the audit. The analysis comprised 28,358 farm audits and all conducted laboratory tests of bulk milk samples 12 mo before the audit. The overall outcome of each farm audit was classified as approved or rejected. Laboratory results included somatic cell count (SCC), total bacterial count (TBC), antimicrobial drug residues (ADR), level of butyric acid spores (BAB), freezing point depression (FPD), level of free fatty acids (FFA), and cleanliness of the milk (CLN). The bulk milk laboratory results were significantly related to audit outcomes. Rejected audits are likely to occur on dairy farms with higher mean levels of SCC, TBC, ADR, and BAB. Moreover, in a multivariable model, maxima for TBC, SCC, and FPD as well as standard deviations for TBC and FPD are risk factors for negative audit outcomes. The efficiency curve of a risk-based selection approach, on the basis of the derived regression results, dominated the current random selection approach. To capture 25, 50, or 75% of the population with poor process standards (i.e., audit outcome of rejected), respectively, only 8, 20, or 47% of the population had to be sampled based on a risk-based selection approach. Milk quality information can thus be used to preselect high-risk farms to be audited more frequently. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Association Between Markers of Inflammation and Total Stroke by Hypertensive Status Among Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rexrode, Kathryn M.; Kotler, Gregory; Everett, Brendan M.; Glynn, Robert J.; Lee, I-Min; Buring, Julie E.; Ridker, Paul M.; Sesso, Howard D.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Markers of systemic inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP], soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 [sICAM-1], and fibrinogen) have been associated with a greater risk of total and ischemic stroke, in addition to elevated blood pressure. However, the role of these inflammatory markers on stroke pathophysiology by hypertension status is uncertain. METHODS Blood samples were collected and assayed for hsCRP, sICAM-1, and fibrinogen among 27,330 initially healthy women from the Women’s Health Study, and women were followed up from 1992 to 2013. Prior to randomization, the baseline questionnaire collected self-reported hypertension status, cardiovascular risk factors, and lifestyle factors. New cases of total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were updated annually through questionnaires and confirmed by medical records according to the National Survey of Stroke criteria. Multivariable Cox models estimated overall associations between each inflammatory marker and stroke and separately stratified by hypertension status. RESULTS We observed 629 incident total strokes over 477,278 person-years. In adjusted analyses, extreme quartiles of hsCRP and sICAM-1 were each associated with a significantly greater risk of total stroke (hsCRP: hazard ratios [HR] = 1.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39–2.26; sICAM-1: HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.00–1.63). Fibrinogen was not associated with a significantly greater stroke risk. In analyses stratified by hypertension status, elevated hsCRP was associated with a nonstatistically significant greater risk of total stroke among prehypertensive and hypertensive women. CONCLUSIONS These data indicate that hsCRP and sICAM-1 are associated with hypertension status and stroke risk among women. Further work should examine the role of inflammatory markers on ischemic stroke subtypes and clarify mechanisms. PMID:27235695

  1. Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan; Xue, Yu

    2009-10-01

    We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability. The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

  2. Osteonecrosis - A rare complication of HIV infection. Association with numerous risk factors; Osteonekrose: eine seltene Komplikation der HIV-Infektion. Assoziation mit bestimmten Risikofaktoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, D.; Behrens, G.; Stoll, M.; Schmidt, R.E. [Medizinische Hochschule Hannover (Germany). Abt. Klinische Immunologie

    2000-03-13

    Osteonecrosis is a rare complication of HIV infection. The presumptive cause of the aseptic osteonecrosis is a distrubed blood supply to the bone. Most cases of osteonecrosis are associated with numerous risk factors, such as use of steroids, alcohol abuse, coagulopathies or metabolic derangements. Since conventional X-rays appear unremarkable, early forms often go unrecognized or are diagnosed late. Methods of establishing the diagnosis are MRI and three-phase skeletal scintigraphy. The pathogenesis of osteonecrosis in HIV infection is unclear. So far, about 30 cases have been reported in the literature. We would recommend that in HIV patients with typical symptoms - in particular when classical risk factors are present - osteonecrosis be included in the differential diagnostic considerations. (orig.) [German] Die Osteonekrose ist eine seltene Komplikation der HIV-Infektion. Als Ursache werden Stoerungen in der Gefaessversorgung des Knochengewebes angenommen. Aufgrund unauffaelliger Befunde im konventionellen Roentgen werden Fruehformen haeufig verkannt oder erst verspaetet diagnostiziert. Methoden zur Diagnosesicherung sind die Kernspintomographie oder die 3-Phasen-Knochenszintigraphie. Die Pathogenese der Osteonekrose bei der HIV-Infektion ist unklar. Bisher sind in der Literatur etwa 30 Kasuistiken beschrieben. Wir empfehlen, bei Vorliegen einer typischen Symptomatik bei HIV-Patienten - insbesondere wenn typische Risikofaktoren vorliegen - die Osteonekrose in die differenzialdiagnostischen Ueberlegungen mit einzubeziehen. (orig.)

  3. Risk factors for small airway obstruction among Chinese island residents: a case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-sheng Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We investigated the prevalence of and risk factors for small airway obstruction (SAO among Chinese island residents to establish means to prevent and treat SAO. METHODS: From October 17, 2011 to November 1, 2011, a total of 2,873 residents aged >20 years who lived on the Huangqi Peninsula of Fujian were recruited by random cluster sampling. They were asked to complete a Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD questionnaire and underwent physical examinations and lung function evaluations. SAO was defined as a forced expiratory flow at 50% of vital capacity, Vmax50%, of less than 70% of predicted. Risk factors for SAO were assessed from among demographic and anthropometric variables, blood chemistry results, and questionnaire response items. RESULTS: A total of 216 (7.52% Chinese island residents were identified as having SAO (95 males; 121 females. Their survey and test results were compared with 432 age and sex-matched healthy controls (192 males; 240 females for SAO risk factors. Among numerous factors investigated, only diabetes mellitus (p = 0.039, smoking index (SI, p600, second hand smoke (p = 0.002, and lack of regular exercise (p<0.001 were significant risk factors for SAO. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for SAO among Chinese island residents appeared to be similar to those among people who live in high-density urban environments and impoverished rural areas. Public health policies and medical practices directed toward improving respiratory health for island residents should be comparable to those used for urban and rural dwellers.

  4. The effect of bearing surface on risk of periprosthetic joint infection in total hip arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hexter, A T; Hislop, S M; Blunn, G W; Liddle, A D

    2018-02-01

    Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a serious complication of total hip arthroplasty (THA). Different bearing surface materials have different surface properties and it has been suggested that the choice of bearing surface may influence the risk of PJI after THA. The objective of this meta-analysis was to compare the rate of PJI between metal-on-polyethylene (MoP), ceramic-on-polyethylene (CoP), and ceramic-on-ceramic (CoC) bearings. Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Web of Science, and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature) were searched for comparative randomized and observational studies that reported the incidence of PJI for different bearing surfaces. Two investigators independently reviewed studies for eligibility, evaluated risk of bias, and performed data extraction. Meta-analysis was performed using the Mantel-Haenzel method and random-effects model in accordance with methods of the Cochrane group. Our search strategy revealed 2272 studies, of which 17 met the inclusion criteria and were analyzed. These comprised 11 randomized controlled trials and six observational studies. The overall quality of included studies was high but the observational studies were at high risk of bias due to inadequate adjustment for confounding factors. The overall cumulative incidence of PJI across all studies was 0.78% (1514/193 378). For each bearing combination, the overall incidence was as follows: MoP 0.85% (1353/158 430); CoP 0.38% (67/17 489); and CoC 0.53% (94/17 459). The meta-analysis showed no significant difference between the three bearing combinations in terms of risk of PJI. On the basis of the clinical studies available, there is no evidence that bearing choice influences the risk of PJI. Future research, including basic science studies and large, adequately controlled registry studies, may be helpful in determining whether implant materials play a role in determining the risk of PJI following arthroplasty

  5. Mortality After Total Knee and Total Hip Arthroplasty in a Large Integrated Health Care System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inacio, Maria C S; Dillon, Mark T; Miric, Alex; Navarro, Ronald A; Paxton, Elizabeth W

    2017-01-01

    The number of excess deaths associated with elective total joint arthroplasty in the US is not well understood. To evaluate one-year postoperative mortality among patients with elective primary and revision arthroplasty procedures of the hip and knee. A retrospective analysis was conducted of hip and knee arthroplasties performed in 2010. Procedure type, procedure volume, patient age and sex, and mortality were obtained from an institutional total joint replacement registry. An integrated health care system population was the sampling frame for the study subjects and was the reference group for the study. Standardized 1-year mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A total of 10,163 primary total knee arthroplasties (TKAs), 4963 primary total hip arthroplasties (THAs), 606 revision TKAs, and 496 revision THAs were evaluated. Patients undergoing primary THA (SMR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.4-0.7) and TKA (SMR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.3-0.5) had lower odds of mortality than expected. Patients with revision TKA had higher-than-expected mortality odds (SMR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.1-2.5), whereas patients with revision THA (SMR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.4-1.5) did not have higher-than-expected odds of mortality. Understanding excess mortality after joint surgery allows clinicians to evaluate current practices and to determine whether certain groups are at higher-than-expected mortality risk after surgery.

  6. Social network diversity and risks of ischemic heart disease and total mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barefoot, John C; Grønbaek, Morten; Jensen, Gorm

    2005-01-01

    Measures of various types of social contacts were used as predictors of ischemic heart disease events and total mortality in an age-stratified random sample of 9,573 adults enrolled in the Copenhagen City Heart Study (Copenhagen, Denmark). Baseline examinations were conducted in 1991-1994, and pa......Measures of various types of social contacts were used as predictors of ischemic heart disease events and total mortality in an age-stratified random sample of 9,573 adults enrolled in the Copenhagen City Heart Study (Copenhagen, Denmark). Baseline examinations were conducted in 1991...

  7. Symbolic Numerical Magnitude Processing Is as Important to Arithmetic as Phonological Awareness Is to Reading.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Vanbinst

    Full Text Available In this article, we tested, using a 1-year longitudinal design, whether symbolic numerical magnitude processing or children's numerical representation of Arabic digits, is as important to arithmetic as phonological awareness is to reading. Children completed measures of symbolic comparison, phonological awareness, arithmetic, reading at the start of third grade and the latter two were retested at the start of fourth grade. Cross-sectional and longitudinal correlations indicated that symbolic comparison was a powerful domain-specific predictor of arithmetic and that phonological awareness was a unique predictor of reading. Crucially, the strength of these independent associations was not significantly different. This indicates that symbolic numerical magnitude processing is as important to arithmetic development as phonological awareness is to reading and suggests that symbolic numerical magnitude processing is a good candidate for screening children at risk for developing mathematical difficulties.

  8. Total oxidant/antioxidant status in jaundiced newborns before and after phototherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aycicek, Ali; Erel, Ozcan

    2007-01-01

    To assess the effect of phototherapy on serum oxidant and antioxidant status in hyperbilirubinemic full-term newborns. Thirty-four full-term infants from 3 to 10 days of age exposed to phototherapy were studied. The serum antioxidant status was assessed by measuring the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and individual antioxidant components: vitamin C, uric acid, albumin, thiol contents and total bilirubin. The oxidant status was assessed by determining the total oxidant status (TOS), oxidative stress index (OSI) and individual oxidant components: malondialdehyde (MDA), and lipid hydroperoxide levels. Vitamin C, uric acid, total bilirubin and MDA concentration were significantly lower, whereas serum TOS, lipid hydroperoxide and OSI levels were significantly higher after phototherapy (p total bilirubin and MDA (r = 0.434, p = 0.001). Although the MDA level was reduced after phototherapy, phototherapy has a negative impact on numerous parts of the oxidant/antioxidant defense system in jaundiced full-term newborns, exposing them to potential oxidative stress.

  9. Experimental and Numerical Study of FRP Encased Composite Concrete Columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Ishaghian

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A new type of composite column is presented and assessed through experimental testing and numerical modeling. The objective of this research is to investigate design options for a composite column without the use of ferrous materials. This is to avoid the current problem of deterioration of concrete due to expansion of rusting reinforcement members. Such a target can be achieved by replacing the steel reinforcement of concrete columns with pultruded I-shape glass FRP structural sections. The composite column utilizes a glass FRP tube that surrounds a pultruded I-section glass FRP, which is subsequently filled with concrete. The GFRP tube acts as a stay-in-place form in addition to providing confinement to the concrete. A total of four composite columns were tested under monotonic axial loading. The experimental ultimate capacity of each of the tested composite column was compared to the predicted numerical capacity using ANSYS program. The comparison showed that the predicted numerical values were in good agreement with the experimental ones.

  10. Metabolic syndrome as a risk factor for total hip or knee replacement due to primary osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study (the HUNT study and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hellevik AI

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Alf Inge Hellevik,1,2 Marianne Bakke Johnsen,3,4 Arnulf Langhammer,1 Valborg Baste,5 Ove Furnes,6,7 Kjersti Storheim,3,4 John Anker Zwart,3,4 Gunnar Birkeland Flugsrud,2 Lars Nordsletten2,4 1The HUNT Research Centre, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Levanger, 2Division of Orthopaedic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 3Research and Communication Unit for Musculoskeletal Health, Division of Clinical Neuroscience, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 4Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, 5Uni Research Health, Bergen, 6The Norwegian Arthroplasty Register, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Haukeland University Hospital, Bergen, 7Department of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway Objective: Biochemical changes associated with obesity may accelerate osteoarthritis beyond the effect of mechanical factors. This study investigated whether metabolic syndrome and its components (visceral obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance were risk factors for subsequent total hip replacement (THR or total knee replacement (TKR due to primary osteoarthritis.Design: In this prospective cohort study, data from the second survey of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 2 (HUNT2 were linked to the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register for identification of the outcome of THR or TKR. The analyses were stratified by age (<50, 50–69.9 and ≥70 years and adjusted for gender, body mass index, smoking, physical activity and education.Results: Of the 62,661 participants, 12,593 (20.1% were identified as having metabolic syndrome, and we recorded 1,840 (2.9% THRs and 1,111 (1.8% TKRs during a mean follow-up time of 15.4 years. Cox regression analyses did not show any association between full metabolic syndrome and THR or TKR, except in persons <50 years with metabolic syndrome who had a decreased risk

  11. Coupling a continuous watershed-scale microbial fate and transport model with a stochastic dose-response model to estimate risk of illness in an urban watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, Hehuan, E-mail: hehuan86@vt.edu [Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Krometis, Leigh-Anne H. [Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Kline, Karen [Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Virginia Tech, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States); Center for Watershed Studies, Virginia Tech, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Within the United States, elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) remain the leading cause of surface water-quality impairments requiring formal remediation plans under the federal Clean Water Act's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program. The sufficiency of compliance with numerical FIB criteria as the targeted endpoint of TMDL remediation plans may be questionable given poor correlations between FIB and pathogenic microorganisms and varying degrees of risk associated with exposure to different fecal pollution sources (e.g. human vs animal). The present study linked a watershed-scale FIB fate and transport model with a dose-response model to continuously predict human health risks via quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), for comparison to regulatory benchmarks. This process permitted comparison of risks associated with different fecal pollution sources in an impaired urban watershed in order to identify remediation priorities. Results indicate that total human illness risks were consistently higher than the regulatory benchmark of 36 illnesses/1000 people for the study watershed, even when the predicted FIB levels were in compliance with the Escherichia coli geometric mean standard of 126 CFU/100 mL. Sanitary sewer overflows were associated with the greatest risk of illness. This is of particular concern, given increasing indications that sewer leakage is ubiquitous in urban areas, yet not typically fully accounted for during TMDL development. Uncertainty analysis suggested the accuracy of risk estimates would be improved by more detailed knowledge of site-specific pathogen presence and densities. While previous applications of the QMRA process to impaired waterways have mostly focused on single storm events or hypothetical situations, the continuous modeling framework presented in this study could be integrated into long-term water quality management planning, especially the United States' TMDL program, providing greater clarity to

  12. Coupling a continuous watershed-scale microbial fate and transport model with a stochastic dose-response model to estimate risk of illness in an urban watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Hehuan; Krometis, Leigh-Anne H.; Kline, Karen

    2016-01-01

    Within the United States, elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) remain the leading cause of surface water-quality impairments requiring formal remediation plans under the federal Clean Water Act's Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program. The sufficiency of compliance with numerical FIB criteria as the targeted endpoint of TMDL remediation plans may be questionable given poor correlations between FIB and pathogenic microorganisms and varying degrees of risk associated with exposure to different fecal pollution sources (e.g. human vs animal). The present study linked a watershed-scale FIB fate and transport model with a dose-response model to continuously predict human health risks via quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), for comparison to regulatory benchmarks. This process permitted comparison of risks associated with different fecal pollution sources in an impaired urban watershed in order to identify remediation priorities. Results indicate that total human illness risks were consistently higher than the regulatory benchmark of 36 illnesses/1000 people for the study watershed, even when the predicted FIB levels were in compliance with the Escherichia coli geometric mean standard of 126 CFU/100 mL. Sanitary sewer overflows were associated with the greatest risk of illness. This is of particular concern, given increasing indications that sewer leakage is ubiquitous in urban areas, yet not typically fully accounted for during TMDL development. Uncertainty analysis suggested the accuracy of risk estimates would be improved by more detailed knowledge of site-specific pathogen presence and densities. While previous applications of the QMRA process to impaired waterways have mostly focused on single storm events or hypothetical situations, the continuous modeling framework presented in this study could be integrated into long-term water quality management planning, especially the United States' TMDL program, providing greater clarity to watershed

  13. Use of Multi-Objective Air Pollution Monitoring Sites and Online Air Pollution Monitoring System for Total Health Risk Assessment in Hyderabad, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. Ramani

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available A consensus has been emerging among public health experts in developing countries that air pollution, even at current ambient levels, aggravates respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and leads to premature mortality. Recent studies have also presented well-founded theories concerning the biological mechanisms involved and the groups of people that are probably more susceptible to health effects caused or exacerbated by inhalation of ambient particulate matter (PM.. On the basis of prognostic studies carried out in Center for Environment, JNT University, Hyderabad “it has been estimated that in Hyderabad some 1,700 to 3,000 people per year die prematurely as a result of inhaling PM”. These figures reflect only the effects of acute exposure to air pollution. If the long-term effects of chronic exposure are taken into account, 10,000–15,000 people a year could die prematurely in Hyderabad. This estimate of the chronic effects is based on other studies, which are not completely comparable with the Hyderabad situation. While the study designs and analyses in these other studies may indeed be different or irrelevant to Hyderabad, the fact they were carried out in other countries is irrelevant. Taking into account these considerations, a model for total health risk assessment for the city of Hyderabad, and its state of Andhra Pradesh in India has been developed using a multi-objective air pollution monitoring network and online and real time air pollution monitoring stations. For the model studies a number of potential monitoring sites were screened for general and site-specific criteria in a geographic information system (GIS environment that may, on a local basis, affect the representativeness of the data collected. Local features that may affect either the chemical or meteorological parameters are evaluated to assure a minimum of interference. Finally, for monitoring air pollution, an online and real

  14. Prediction of qualitative parameters of slab steel ingot using numerical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tkadlečková

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the verification of casting and solidification of heavy slab ingot weighing 40 t from tool steel by means of numerical modelling with use of a finite element method. The pre-processing, processing and post-processing phases of numerical modelling are outlined. Also, the problems with determination of the thermodynamic properties of materials and with determination of the heat transfer between the individual parts of the casting system are discussed. The final porosity, macrosegregation and the risk of cracks were predicted. The results allowed us to use the slab ingot instead of the conventional heavy steel ingot and to improve the ratio, the chamfer and the external shape of the wall of the new design of the slab ingot.

  15. Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W.; Cameron, Donald; Coventry, David; Cooper, Ian M.

    2007-01-01

    Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk we...

  16. Numerical investigation of diffuse ceiling ventilation in an office under different operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hviid, Christian Anker; Petersen, Steffen

    2014-01-01

    is a numerical study of the performance of a six person office equipped with diffuse ventilation ceiling. In total six extreme, yet realistic, operation scenarios were simulated to study the performance including different occupancy, ventilation rates and supply air temperatures. The performance was studied...

  17. Single-dose radiation therapy for prevention of heterotopic ossification after total hip arthroplasty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Healy, W.L.; Lo, T.C.; Covall, D.J.; Pfeifer, B.A.; Wasilewski, S.A.

    1990-01-01

    Single-dose radiation therapy was prospectively evaluated for its efficacy in prevention of heterotopic ossification in patients at high risk after total hip arthroplasty. Thirty-one patients (34 hips) were treated between 1981 and 1988. Risk factors for inclusion in the protocol included prior evidence of heterotopic ossification, ankylosing spondylitis, and diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis. Patients with hypertrophic osteoarthritis or traumatic arthritis with osteophytes were not included. Operations on 34 hips included 19 primary total and 11 revision total hip arthroplasties and 4 excisions of heterotopic ossification. All patients received radiotherapy to the hip after operation with a single dose of 700 centigray. Radiotherapy is recommended on the first postoperative day. After this single-dose radiation treatment, no patient had clinically significant heterotopic ossification. Recurrent disease developed in two hips (6%), as seen on radiography (grades 2 and 3). This series documents a 100% clinical success rate and a 94% radiographic success rate in preventing heterotopic ossification in patients at high risk after total hip arthroplasty. Single-dose radiotherapy is as effective as other radiation protocols in preventing heterotopic ossification after total hip arthroplasty. It is less expensive and easier to administer than multidose radiotherapy

  18. Combining Narrative and Numerical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Mette Sanne; Ladeby, Klaes Rohde; Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2011-01-01

    for decision makers to systematically test several different outputs of possible solutions in order to prepare for future consequences. The CSA can be a way to evaluate risks and address possible unforeseen problems in a more methodical way than either guessing or forecasting. This paper contributes...... to the decision making in operations and production management by providing new insights into modelling and simulation based on the combined narrative and numerical simulation approach as a tool for strategy making. The research question asks, “How can the CSA be applied in a practical context to support strategy...... making?” The paper uses a case study where interviews and observations were carried out in a Danish corporation. The CSA is a new way to address decision making and has both practical value and further expands the use of strategic simulation as a management tool....

  19. A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

    2017-06-01

    Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

  20. Numerical distance protection

    CERN Document Server

    Ziegler, Gerhard

    2011-01-01

    Distance protection provides the basis for network protection in transmission systems and meshed distribution systems. This book covers the fundamentals of distance protection and the special features of numerical technology. The emphasis is placed on the application of numerical distance relays in distribution and transmission systems.This book is aimed at students and engineers who wish to familiarise themselves with the subject of power system protection, as well as the experienced user, entering the area of numerical distance protection. Furthermore it serves as a reference guide for s

  1. A Network Model of Credit Risk Contagion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting-Qiang Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A network model of credit risk contagion is presented, in which the effect of behaviors of credit risk holders and the financial market regulators and the network structure are considered. By introducing the stochastic dominance theory, we discussed, respectively, the effect mechanisms of the degree of individual relationship, individual attitude to credit risk contagion, the individual ability to resist credit risk contagion, the monitoring strength of the financial market regulators, and the network structure on credit risk contagion. Then some derived and proofed propositions were verified through numerical simulations.

  2. Numerical methods using Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Lindfield, George

    2012-01-01

    Numerical Methods using MATLAB, 3e, is an extensive reference offering hundreds of useful and important numerical algorithms that can be implemented into MATLAB for a graphical interpretation to help researchers analyze a particular outcome. Many worked examples are given together with exercises and solutions to illustrate how numerical methods can be used to study problems that have applications in the biosciences, chaos, optimization, engineering and science across the board. Numerical Methods using MATLAB, 3e, is an extensive reference offering hundreds of use

  3. Numerical simulation of turbulent liquid metal flows in plane channels and annuli

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groetzbach, G.

    1980-06-01

    The method of direct numerical simulation is used to study heat transfer and statistical data for fully developed turbulent liquid metal flows in plane channels and annuli. Subgrid scale models using one transport equation account for the high wave-number turbulence not resolved by the finite difference grid. A special subgrid-scale heat flux model is deduced together with an approximative theory to calculate all model coefficients. This model can be applied on the total Peclet number range of technical liquid metal flows. Especially it can be used for very small Peclet numbers, where the results are independent on model parameters. A verification of the numerical results for liquid sodium and mercury flows is undertaken by the Nusselt number in plane channels and radial temperature and eddy conductivity profiles for annuli. The numerically determined Nusselt numbers for annuli indicate that many empirical correlations overestimate the influence of the ratio of radii. The numerical results for the eddy conductivity profiles may be used to remove these problems. The statistical properties of the simulated temperature fluctuations are within the wide scatter-band of experimental data. The numerical results give reasonable heat flux correlation coefficients which depend only weakly on the problem marking parameters. (orig.) [de

  4. Evaluation the total exposure of soil sample in Adaya site and the obtain risk assessments for the worker by Res Rad code program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahadi, A. M.; Khadim, A. A. N.; Ibrahim, Z. H.; Ali, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    The present study aims to evaluation the total exposure to the worker in Adaya site risk assessment by using Res Rad code program. The study including 5 areas soil sample calculate in the site and analysis it by High Pure Germaniums (Hg) system made (CANBERRA) company. The soil sample simulation by (Res Rad) code program by inter the radioactive isotope concentration and the specification of the contamination zone area, depth and the cover depth of it. The total exposure of same sample was about 9 mSv/year and the (Heast 2001 Morbidity, FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.045 state every 100 worker in the year. There are simple different between Heast 2001 Morbidity and FGR13 Morbidity according to the Dose Conversion Factor (DCF) use it. The (FGR13 Morbidity) about 2.041 state every 100 worker in the year. (Author)

  5. Numerical algorithms for contact problems in linear elastostatics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbosa, H.J.C.; Feijoo, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    In this work contact problems in linear elasticity are analysed by means of Finite Elements and Mathematical Programming Techniques. The principle of virtual work leads in this case to a variational inequality which in turn is equivalent, for Hookean materials and infinitesimal strains, to the minimization of the total potential energy over the set of all admissible virtual displacements. The use of Gauss-Seidel algorithm with relaxation and projection and also Lemke's algorithm and Uzawa's algorithm for solving the minimization problem is discussed. Finally numerical examples are presented. (Author) [pt

  6. Metabolic syndrome as a risk factor for total hip or knee replacement due to primary osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study (the HUNT study and the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellevik, Alf Inge; Johnsen, Marianne Bakke; Langhammer, Arnulf; Baste, Valborg; Furnes, Ove; Storheim, Kjersti; Zwart, John Anker; Flugsrud, Gunnar Birkeland; Nordsletten, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Biochemical changes associated with obesity may accelerate osteoarthritis beyond the effect of mechanical factors. This study investigated whether metabolic syndrome and its components (visceral obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance) were risk factors for subsequent total hip replacement (THR) or total knee replacement (TKR) due to primary osteoarthritis. In this prospective cohort study, data from the second survey of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study 2 (HUNT2) were linked to the Norwegian Arthroplasty Register for identification of the outcome of THR or TKR. The analyses were stratified by age (<50, 50-69.9 and ≥70 years) and adjusted for gender, body mass index, smoking, physical activity and education. Of the 62,661 participants, 12,593 (20.1%) were identified as having metabolic syndrome, and we recorded 1,840 (2.9%) THRs and 1,111 (1.8%) TKRs during a mean follow-up time of 15.4 years. Cox regression analyses did not show any association between full metabolic syndrome and THR or TKR, except in persons <50 years with metabolic syndrome who had a decreased risk of THR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.83). However, when including only participants whose exposure status did not change during follow-up, this protective association was no longer significant. Increased waist circumference was associated with increased risk of TKR in participants <50 years (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.10-2.39) and 50-69.9 years (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.14-1.80). Hypertension significantly increased the risk of TKR in participants <50 years (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05-1.81), and this risk was greater for men. This study found an increased risk of TKR in men <50 years with hypertension and persons <70 years with increased waist circumference. Apart from this, neither metabolic syndrome nor its components were associated with increased risk of THR or TKR due to primary osteoarthritis.

  7. Total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for LWR pin-cells with improved UNICORN code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan, Chenghui; Cao, Liangzhi; Wu, Hongchun; Shen, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new model is established for the total sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. • The NR approximation applied in S&U analysis can be avoided by the new model. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed to PWR pin-cells by the new model. • The effects of the NR approximation for the PWR pin-cells are quantified. - Abstract: In this paper, improvements to the multigroup cross-section perturbation model have been proposed and applied in the self-developed UNICORN code, which is capable of performing the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations by applying the direct numerical perturbation method and the statistical sampling method respectively. The narrow resonance (NR) approximation was applied in the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, implemented in UNICORN. As improvements to the NR approximation to refine the multigroup cross-section perturbation model, an ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation model has been established, in which the actual perturbations are applied to the ultrafine-group cross-section library and the reconstructions of the resonance cross sections are performed by solving the neutron slowing-down equation. The total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis were then applied to the LWR pin-cells, using both the multigroup and the ultrafine-group cross-section perturbation models. The numerical results show that the NR approximation overestimates the relative sensitivity coefficients and the corresponding uncertainty results for the LWR pin-cells, and the effects of the NR approximation are significant for σ_(_n_,_γ_) and σ_(_n_,_e_l_a_s_) of "2"3"8U. Therefore, the effects of the NR approximation applied in the total sensitivity and total uncertainty analysis for the neutron-physics calculations of LWR should be taken into account.

  8. Health risks of nuclear and coal fuel cycles in electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kayes, R.J.; Taylor, P.J.

    1984-12-01

    A report has been prepared by the Political Ecology Research Group in which the field of comparative risk assessment of electricity generation from nuclear and coal fuel cycles is critically reviewed. Section 2 gives an introduction to risk assessments and points out the limitations of the numerical assessments that are so widely quoted. Section 3 critically reviews the major study of the UK situation, the remaining minor British studies and two American studies. Section 4 examines in detail certain areas of controversy and significance that arise in the previous section. It relates the numerical values of risk derived in Section 3 to risks in other sectors of society. Section 5 considers the significance of these estimates of risk and the conclusions are presented in section 6. (U.K.)

  9. Safety from physical viewpoint: ''two-risk model in multiple risk problem''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuz'Min, I.I.; Akimov, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the problem of safety provision for people and environment within the framework of a certain socio-economic system (SES) as a problem of managing a great number of interacting risks characterizing numerous hazards (natural, manmade, social, economic once, etc.) inherent in the certain SES has been discussed. From the physical point of view, it can be considered a problem of interaction of many bodies which has no accurate mathematical solution even if the laws of interaction of this bodies are known. In physics, to solve this problem, an approach based on the reduction of the above-mentioned problem of the problem of two-body interaction which can be solved accurately in mathematics has been used. The report presents a similar approach to the problem of risk management in the SES. This approach includes the subdivision of numerous hazards inherent within the framework of the SES into two classes of hazards, so that each of the classes could be considered an integrated whole one, each of them being characterized by the appropriate risk. Consequently, problem of 'multiple-risk' management (i.e. the problem of many bodies, as represented in physics) can be reduced to the 'two-risk' management problem (that is, to the problem two-bodies). Within the framework of the two-risk model the optimization of costs to reduce the two kinds of risk, that is, the risk inherent in the SES as a whole, as well as the risk potentially provoked by lots of activities to be introduced in the SES economy has been described. The model has made it possible to formulate and prove the theorem of equilibrium in risk management. Using the theorem, a relatively simple and practically applicable procedure of optimizing the threshold costs to reduce diverse kinds of risk has been elaborated. The procedure provides to assess the minimum value of the cost that can be achieved regarding the socio-economic factors typical of the SES under discussion. The aimed

  10. Experimental and numerical investigation of a louvered fin and elliptical tube compact heat exchanger

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooranachandran Karthik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, an experimental investigation is carried out to analyze the heat transfer characteristics of a louvered fin and elliptical tube compact heat exchanger used as a radiator in an internal combustion engine. Experiments are conducted by positioning the radiator in an open-loop wind tunnel. A total of 24 sets of air, water flow rate combinations are tested, and the temperature drops of air and water were acquired. A numerical analysis has been carried out using Fluent software (a general purpose computational fluid dynamics simulation tool for three chosen data from the experiments. The numerical air-side temperature drop is compared with those of the experimental values. A good agreement between the experimental and numerical results validates the present computational methodology.

  11. A convergent overlapping domain decomposition method for total variation minimization

    KAUST Repository

    Fornasier, Massimo

    2010-06-22

    In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of convergent sequential and parallel overlapping domain decomposition methods for the minimization of functionals formed by a discrepancy term with respect to the data and a total variation constraint. To our knowledge, this is the first successful attempt of addressing such a strategy for the nonlinear, nonadditive, and nonsmooth problem of total variation minimization. We provide several numerical experiments, showing the successful application of the algorithm for the restoration of 1D signals and 2D images in interpolation/inpainting problems, respectively, and in a compressed sensing problem, for recovering piecewise constant medical-type images from partial Fourier ensembles. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

  12. Lung cancer risk assessment due to traffic-generated particles exposure in urban street canyons: A numerical modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scungio, M; Stabile, L; Rizza, V; Pacitto, A; Russi, A; Buonanno, G

    2018-08-01

    Combustion-generated nanoparticles are responsible for negative health effects due to their ability to penetrate in the lungs, carrying toxic compounds with them. In urban areas, the coexistence of nanoparticle sources and particular street-building configurations can lead to very high particle exposure levels. In the present paper, an innovative approach for the evaluation of lung cancer incidence in street canyon due to exposure to traffic-generated particles was proposed. To this end, the literature-available values of particulate matter, PAHs and heavy metals emitted from different kind of vehicles were used to calculate the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk (ELCR) at the tailpipe. The estimated ELCR was then used as input data in a numerical CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model that solves the mass, momentum, turbulence and species transport equations, in order to evaluate the cancer risk in every point of interest inside the street canyon. Thus, the influence of wind speed and street canyon geometry (H/W, height of building, H and width of the street, W) on the ELCR at street level was evaluated by means of a CFD simulation. It was found that the ELCR calculated on the leeward and windward sides of the street canyon at a breathable height of 1.5 m, for people exposed 15 min per day for 20 years, is equal to 1.5 × 10 -5 and 4.8 × 10 -6 , respectively, for wind speed of 1 m/s and H/W equal to 1. The ELCR at street level results higher on the leeward side for aspect ratios equal to 1 and 3, while for aspect ratio equal to 2 it is higher on the windward side. In addition, the simulations showed that with the increasing of wind speed the ELCR becomes lower everywhere in the street canyon, due to the increased in dispersion. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Risks of cancer - All sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    This chapter describes the BEIR Committee's radiation risk models and the total risks of cancer following whole body exposure. This report focuses on the data from A-bomb survivors since this cohort contains persons of all ages at exposure. Because of large statistical uncertainties, it was not possible for the committee to provide risk estimates for cancers at all specific sites of interest. Estimates were made for risk of leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, and cancers of the respiratory and digestive systems. To obtain an estimate of the total risk of mortality from all cancers, the committee also modeled cancers other than those listed above as a group

  14. A numerical investigation into the influence of the properties of cobalt chrome cellular structures on the load transfer to the periprosthetic femur following total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazlehurst, Kevin Brian; Wang, Chang Jiang; Stanford, Mark

    2014-04-01

    Stress shielding of the periprosthetic femur following total hip arthroplasty is a problem that can promote the premature loosening of femoral stems. In order to reduce the need for revision surgery it is thought that more flexible implant designs need to be considered. In this work, the mechanical properties of laser melted square pore cobalt chrome molybdenum cellular structures have been incorporated into the design of a traditional monoblock femoral stem. The influence of incorporating the properties of cellular structures on the load transfer to the periprosthetic femur was investigated using a three dimensional finite element model. Eleven different stiffness configurations were investigated by using fully porous and functionally graded approaches. This investigation confirms that the periprosthetic stress values depend on the stiffness configuration of the stem. The numerical results showed that stress shielding is reduced in the periprosthetic Gruen zones when the mechanical properties of cobalt chrome molybdenum cellular structures are used. This work identifies that monoblock femoral stems manufactured using a laser melting process, which are designed for reduced stiffness, have the potential to contribute towards reducing stress shielding. Copyright © 2014 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. At your own risk. An inquiry about risk management in the ESI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    The UNIPEDE survey on Risk Management within the Electricity Supply Industry has provided a picture of the risks facing the Industry at present and an insight into the management of tomorrow's risks. The survey, in which 81 companies (85 respondents) from 31 countries took part shows that: nearly all types of risk identified in the questionnaire are perceived to be growing : the Risk Management role has become more centralized over the past three years: change will slow in the coming three ; the amount of top level attention given to Risk Management is increasing. However only 37 % of respondent companies have Risk Management as a regular top level management item ; environment-related risks and the safety of both employees and the public are perceived as the most critical risks facing the Industry. Over 80 % of surveyed companies consider that both are of increasing concern ; almost 90 % of respondents agreed that risk management processes should be implemented for both pure and speculative risks. Those who disagreed maintained that Risk Management should be 'realistic not theoretical' ; respondents from the US gave markedly different answers to those from the rest of the world. Risk Management in the US receives top level attention, with numerous separated risk management departments handling risk strategy

  16. Tritium release experiments with CATS and numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munakata, Kenzo; Wajima, Takaaki; Hara, Keisuke; Wada, Kohei; Takeishi, Toshiharu; Shinozaki, Yohei; Mochizuki, Kazuhiro; Katekari, Kenichi; Kobayashi, Kazuhiro; Iwai, Yasunori; Hayashi, Takumi; Yamanishi, Toshihiko

    2010-01-01

    In D-T fusion power plants, large amounts of tritium would be handled. Tritium is the radioisotope of protium, and is easily taken into the human body, and thus the behavior of tritium accidentally released in fusion power plants should be studied for the safety design and radioprotection of workers. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the behavior of tritium released into large rooms with objectives, since complex flow fields should exist in such rooms and they could influence the ventilation of the air containing released tritium. Thus, tritium release experiments were conducted using Caisson Assembly for Tritium Safety Study (CATS) in TPL/JAEA. Some data were taken for tritium behavior in the ventilated area and response of tritium monitors. In the experiments, approximately 17 GBq of tritium was released into Caisson with the total volume of 12 m 3 , and the room was ventilated at the rate of 12 m 3 /h after release of tritium. It was found that placement of an objective in the vessel substantially affects decontamination efficiency. With regard to an experimental result, numerical calculation was performed and the experimental result and the result of numerical calculation were compared, which indicates that experimental results are qualitatively reproduced by numerical calculation. However, further R and D needs to be carried out for quantitative reproduction of the experimental results.

  17. Tritium release experiments with CATS and numerical simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munakata, Kenzo, E-mail: kenzo@gipc.akita-u.ac.jp [Faculty of Engineering and Resource Sciences, Akita University, Tegata-gakuen-cho 1-1, Akita 010-8502 (Japan); Wajima, Takaaki; Hara, Keisuke; Wada, Kohei [Faculty of Engineering and Resource Sciences, Akita University, Tegata-gakuen-cho 1-1, Akita 010-8502 (Japan); Takeishi, Toshiharu; Shinozaki, Yohei; Mochizuki, Kazuhiro; Katekari, Kenichi [Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Science, Kyushu University, Hakozaki 6-10-1, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka 812-8581 (Japan); Kobayashi, Kazuhiro; Iwai, Yasunori; Hayashi, Takumi; Yamanishi, Toshihiko [Tritium Technology Group, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195 (Japan)

    2010-12-15

    In D-T fusion power plants, large amounts of tritium would be handled. Tritium is the radioisotope of protium, and is easily taken into the human body, and thus the behavior of tritium accidentally released in fusion power plants should be studied for the safety design and radioprotection of workers. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the behavior of tritium released into large rooms with objectives, since complex flow fields should exist in such rooms and they could influence the ventilation of the air containing released tritium. Thus, tritium release experiments were conducted using Caisson Assembly for Tritium Safety Study (CATS) in TPL/JAEA. Some data were taken for tritium behavior in the ventilated area and response of tritium monitors. In the experiments, approximately 17 GBq of tritium was released into Caisson with the total volume of 12 m{sup 3}, and the room was ventilated at the rate of 12 m{sup 3}/h after release of tritium. It was found that placement of an objective in the vessel substantially affects decontamination efficiency. With regard to an experimental result, numerical calculation was performed and the experimental result and the result of numerical calculation were compared, which indicates that experimental results are qualitatively reproduced by numerical calculation. However, further R and D needs to be carried out for quantitative reproduction of the experimental results.

  18. Qualità totale e mobilità totale Total Quality and Total Mobility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Trieste

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available FIABA ONLUS (Italian Fund for Elimination of Architectural Barriers was founded in 2000 with the aim of promoting a culture of equal opportunities and, above all, it has as its main goal to involve public and private institutions to create a really accessible and usable environment for everyone. Total accessibility, Total usability and Total mobility are key indicators to define quality of life within cities. A supportive environment that is free of architectural, cultural and psychological barriers allows everyone to live with ease and universality. In fact, people who access to goods and services in the urban context can use to their advantage time and space, so they can do their activities and can maintain relationships that are deemed significant for their social life. The main aim of urban accessibility is to raise the comfort of space for citizens, eliminating all barriers that discriminate people, and prevent from an equality of opportunity. “FIABA FUND - City of ... for the removal of architectural barriers” is an idea of FIABA that has already affected many regions of Italy as Lazio, Lombardy, Campania, Abruzzi and Calabria. It is a National project which provides for opening a bank account in the cities of referring, in which for the first time, all together, individuals and private and public institutions can make a donation to fund initiatives for the removal of architectural barriers within its own territory for a real and effective total accessibility. Last February the fund was launched in Rome with the aim of achieving a Capital without barriers and a Town European model of accessibility and usability. Urban mobility is a prerequisite to access to goods and services, and to organize activities related to daily life. FIABA promotes the concept of sustainable mobility for all, supported by the European Commission’s White Paper. We need a cultural change in management and organization of public means, which might focus on

  19. TERRITORIAL RISK ASSESMENT AFTER TERRORIST ACT: EXPRESS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Biliaiev

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The paper involves the development of a method to assess the territorial risk in the event of a terrorist attack using a chemical agent. Methodology. To describe the process of chemical agent scattering in the atmosphere, ejected in the event of a terrorist attack, the equation of mass transfer of an impurity in atmospheric air is used. The equation takes into account the velocity of the wind flow, atmospheric diffusion, the intensity of chemical agent emission, the presence of buildings near the site of the emission of a chemically hazardous substance. For numerical integration of the modeling equation, a finite difference method is used. A feature of the developed numerical model is the possibility of assessing the territorial risk in the event of a terrorist attack under different weather conditions and the presence of buildings. Findings. A specialized numerical model and software package has been developed that can be used to assess the territorial risk, both in the case of terrorist attacks, with the use of chemical agents, and in case of extreme situations at chemically hazardous facilities and transport. The method can be implemented on small and medium-sized computers, which allows it to be widely used for solving the problems of the class under consideration. The results of a computational experiment are presented that allow estimating possibilities of the proposed method for assessing the territorial risk in the event of a terrorist attack using a chemical agent. Originality. An effective method of assessing the territorial risk in the event of a terrorist attack using a chemically hazardous substance is proposed. The method can be used to assess the territorial risk in an urban environment, which allows you to obtain adequate data on possible damage areas. The method is based on the numerical integration of the fundamental mass transfer equation, which expresses the law of conservation of mass in a liquid medium. Practical

  20. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  1. Relationships of different types of event to cardiovascular death in trials of antihypertensive treatment: an aid to definition of total cardiovascular disease risk in hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambon, Antonella; Arfè, Andrea; Corrao, Giovanni; Zanchetti, Alberto

    2014-03-01

    Guidelines for management of cardiovascular diseases stratify absolute cardiovascular risk into categories with a high-risk threshold defined at a 20% cardiovascular events risk in 10 years, but it is unclear whether only major events or the Framingham-extended definition should be considered. The 2013 ESH-ESC hypertension guidelines, instead, define cardiovascular risk as a risk of cardiovascular death in 10 years, as in the SCORE model, setting the threshold for high risk at the 5% level. It would be therefore convenient to know the quantitative relationship between the risks of the different outcomes adopted by the different guidelines, especially because some outcome definitions include serious nonfatal cardiovascular events relevant in cardiovascular prevention. We have therefore analysed these relationships in trials of antihypertensive therapy as an aid to defining total cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients. Sixty-one trials were identified, and 51 retained for analysis of the relationship of cardiovascular death to the incidence of all-cause death, major cardiovascular events and inclusive (Framingham) cardiovascular events. The relationship between cardiovascular death rates and each type of event rates was explored by fitting flexible regression models. The included trials provided 15164 cardiovascular deaths and 1674427 patient-years. The relation of each event rate to cardiovascular death rate was best explained by a model considering the logarithm of each event rate as a dependent variable and the logarithm of cardiovascular death rate as a predictor. Mean patients' age and treatment were also predictors, but to a minor extent. The increase of the incidence rates of all types of events was less steep the higher the CV death rate: the rate ratios of all-cause death to cardiovascular death were 2.2, 1.9 and 1.8 at low-moderate (cardiovascular death hypertensive patients whose cardiovascular death risk is calculated by the SCORE model.

  2. Numerical analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Brezinski, C

    2012-01-01

    Numerical analysis has witnessed many significant developments in the 20th century. This book brings together 16 papers dealing with historical developments, survey papers and papers on recent trends in selected areas of numerical analysis, such as: approximation and interpolation, solution of linear systems and eigenvalue problems, iterative methods, quadrature rules, solution of ordinary-, partial- and integral equations. The papers are reprinted from the 7-volume project of the Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics on '/homepage/sac/cam/na2000/index.html<

  3. Total-System Analyzer for performance assessment of Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, M.L.; Lauffer, F.C.; Cummings, J.C.; Zieman, N.B.

    1990-01-01

    The Total-System Analyzer is a modular computer program for probabilistic total-system performance calculations. The code employs stratified random sampling from model parameter distribution functions to generate multiple realizations of the system. The results of flow and transport calculations for each realization are combined into a probability distribution function of the system response as indicated by the performance measure. We give a detailed description of the code and present results for four example problems simulating the release of radionuclides from a proposed high-level-waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The example simulations illustrate the impact of significant variation of percolation flux and sorption on radionuclide releases. We discuss the effects of numerical sampling error and of correlations among the model parameters. 20 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  4. Enhanced FAA-hybrid III numerical dummy model in Madymo for aircraft occupant safety assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boucher, H.; Waagmeester, C.D.

    2003-01-01

    To improve survivability and to minimize the risk of injury to occupants in helicopter crash events, a complete Cabin Safety System concept including safety features and an enhanced FAA-Hybrid III dummy were developed within the HeliSafe project. A numerical tool was also created and validated to

  5. [Perception of health risks: psychological and social factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurzenhäuser, S; Epp, A

    2009-12-01

    This article reviews central findings and current developments of psychological and sociological research on the perception of health risks. Risk perception is influenced by numerous psychological, social, political, and cultural factors. These factors can be categorized into (a) risk characteristics, (b) characteristics of the risk perceiving person and his/her situation, and (c) characteristics of risk communication. Thus, besides individual cognitive and affective processing of risk information, social processes of risk amplification (e.g., media effects) are also involved in the construction of individual risk perceptions. We discuss the recommendations for health risk communication that follow from these findings with regard to different communication goals.

  6. An equivalent fluid/equivalent medium approach for the numerical simulation of coastal landslides propagation: theory and case studies

    OpenAIRE

    P. Mazzanti; F. Bozzano

    2009-01-01

    Coastal and subaqueous landslides can be very dangerous phenomena since they are characterised by the additional risk of induced tsunamis, unlike their completely-subaerial counterparts. Numerical modelling of landslides propagation is a key step in forecasting the consequences of landslides. In this paper, a novel approach named Equivalent Fluid/Equivalent Medium (EFEM) has been developed. It adapts common numerical models and software that were originally designed for subaerial landslides i...

  7. Numeral-Incorporating Roots in Numeral Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Two Sign Languages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes, Mariana; Massone, Maria Ignacia; Fernandez-Viader, Maria del Pilar; Makotrinsky, Alejandro; Pulgarin, Francisca

    2010-01-01

    Numeral-incorporating roots in the numeral systems of Argentine Sign Language (LSA) and Catalan Sign Language (LSC), as well as the main features of the number systems of both languages, are described and compared. Informants discussed the use of numerals and roots in both languages (in most cases in natural contexts). Ten informants took part in…

  8. Subspace Correction Methods for Total Variation and $\\ell_1$-Minimization

    KAUST Repository

    Fornasier, Massimo

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the numerical minimization of energy functionals in Hilbert spaces involving convex constraints coinciding with a seminorm for a subspace. The optimization is realized by alternating minimizations of the functional on a sequence of orthogonal subspaces. On each subspace an iterative proximity-map algorithm is implemented via oblique thresholding, which is the main new tool introduced in this work. We provide convergence conditions for the algorithm in order to compute minimizers of the target energy. Analogous results are derived for a parallel variant of the algorithm. Applications are presented in domain decomposition methods for degenerate elliptic PDEs arising in total variation minimization and in accelerated sparse recovery algorithms based on 1-minimization. We include numerical examples which show e.cient solutions to classical problems in signal and image processing. © 2009 Society for Industrial and Applied Physics.

  9. Numerical analysis of lateral illumination lightpipes using elliptical grooves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Guerrero, Guillermo E.; Viera-González, Perla M.; Martínez-Guerra, Edgar; Ceballos-Herrera, Daniel E.

    2017-09-01

    Lightpipes are used for illumination in applications such as back-lighting or solar cell concentrators due to the high irradiance uniformity, but its optimal design requires several parameters. This work presents a procedure to design a square lightpipe to control the light-extraction on its lateral face using commercial LEDs placed symmetrically in the lightpipe frontal face. We propose the use of grooves using total internal reflection placed successively in the same face of extraction to control the area of emission. The LED area of emission is small compared with the illuminated area, and, as expected, the lateral face total power is attenuated. These grooves reduce the optical elements in the system and can control areas of illumination. A mathematical and numerical analysis are presented to determine the dependencies on the light-extraction.

  10. Numerical Operations, Transparency Illusions and the Datafication of Governance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Hans Krause

    2015-01-01

    Building on conceptual insights from the history and sociology of numbers, media and surveillance studies, and theories of governance and risk, this article analyzes the forms of transparency produced by the use of numbers in social life. It examines what it is about numbers that often makes...... their ‘truth claims’ so powerful, investigates the role that numerical operations play in the production of retrospective, real-time and anticipatory forms of transparency in contemporary politics and economic transactions, and discusses some of the implications resulting from the increasingly abstract...

  11. Fractionation and potential toxic risk of metals from superficial sediment in Itaipu Lake--boundary between Brazil and Paraguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalwa, Miguel; Quináia, Sueli Pércio; Pletsch, Adelmo L; Techy, Laura; Felsner, Maria Lurdes

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate fractions of metals (labile and pseudo-total) extracted from sediment samples collected in Itaipu Lake (boundary between Brazil and Paraguay) and to assess the dynamics and mobility of these fractions by identifying the same bioavailability and ecological risk to metals in the aquatic environment. The concentrations of metal ions were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometry. There was a correlation between the metal ions, both in the labile and the pseudo-total, with regard to particle size. To assess metals concentrations in sediment, numerical sediment-quality guidelines were applied. The concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, iron, manganese, lead, and zinc in all sediment samples are lower than the proposed probable effects level (PEL), thus possibly indicating that there are no harmful effects from these metals. In contrast, concentrations of copper, chromium, and nickel exceeded the PEL in some samples, thus indicating that these stations are at potential risk. The level of contamination in sediments of Itaipu Lake for all metals was evaluated using contamination factor, degree of contamination, and sum-of-metals toxic unit.

  12. Determination of dietary intake of total arsenic, inorganic arsenic and total mercury in the Chilean school meal program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastías, J M; Bermúdez, M; Carrasco, J; Espinoza, O; Muñoz, M; Galotto, M J; Muñoz, O

    2010-10-01

    The dietary intake of total arsenic (tAs), inorganic arsenic (iAs) and total mercury (tHg) in lunch and breakfast servings provided by the Chilean School Meal Program (SMP) was estimated, using the duplicate-portion variant of the total diet study. Lunch and breakfast samples were collected from 65 schools throughout the country in 2006. The population sample was a group of girls and boys between 6 and 18 years old. The tAs concentration was measured via hydride-generation atomic absorption spectrometry. The total mercury concentration was measured via cold-vapor atomic absorption spectroscopy. The estimated iAs intake was 12.5% (5.4 μg/day) of the Provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI) as proposed by the FAO/WHO, and the tHg intake was 13.2% (1.9 μg/day) of the PTDI as proposed by the FAO/WHO. It was therefore concluded that tAs, iAs and tHg intake from food provided by the SMP do not pose risks to student health.

  13. Numerical Methods Are Feasible for Assessing Surgical Techniques: Application to Astigmatic Keratotomy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ariza-Gracia, M.A.; Ortilles, A.; Cristobal, J.A.; Rodriguez, J.F.; Calvo, B.

    2016-07-01

    The present study proposes an experimental-numerical protocol whose novelty relies on using both the inflation and the indentation experiments simultaneously to obtain a set of material parameters which accounts for both deformation modes of the cornea: the physiological (biaxial tension) and the non-physiological (bending). The experimental protocol characterizes the corneal geometry and the mechanical response of the cornea when subjected to the experimental tests using an animal model (New Zealand rabbit's cornea). The numerical protocol reproduces the experimental tests by means of an inverse finite element methodology to obtain the set of material properties that minimizes both mechanical responses at the same time. To validate the methodology, an Astigmatic Keratotomy refractive surgery is performed on 4 New Zealand rabbit corneas. The pre and post-surgical topographies of the anterior corneal surface were measured using a MODI topographer (CSO, Italy) to control the total change in astigmatism. Afterwards, the surgery is numerically reproduced to predict the overall change of the cornea. Results showed an acceptable numerical prediction, close to the average experimental correction, validating the material parameters obtained with the proposed protocol. (Author)

  14. COORDINATES OF A RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT

    OpenAIRE

    ALEXANDRU OLTEANU; MĂDĂLINA ANTOANETA RĂDOI

    2013-01-01

    High risk – high benefit: a well-known correlation both in the economic field and in the day-to-day life. Another correlation, on which this article is based: large project – numerous participants – increased risks and other malfunctions. The risk management concept is challenged by those projects and is forced to find the most adequate “customized” ways for each project at its turn. In this respect, the assessment of management has followed the trend of the last three decades, marked by movi...

  15. SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS: LITERATURE REVIEW AND A NEW CATEGORIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Er Kara, Merve; Oktay Fırat, Seniye Ümit

    2017-01-01

    Identification of risks is the first step to build a resilient and sustainable supply chain and develop proactive risk management strategies. Supply chains contain numerous risks with different forms, probabilities and impacts. Supply chain risks have a multi-dimensional nature and can result from a wide variety of sources including demand and supply variability, poor performing suppliers, price fluctuations, dynamic consumer markets, global economic uncertainty, and even unexpected events su...

  16. Endosulfan and its metabolite, endosulfan sulfate, in freshwater ecosystems of South Florida: a probabilistic aquatic ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, Gary M; Carriger, John F; Gardinali, Piero R; Castro, Joffre

    2010-06-01

    Endosulfan is an insecticide-acaricide used in South Florida and is one of the remaining organochlorine insecticides registered under the Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act by the U.S.EPA. The technical grade material consists of two isomers (alpha-, beta-) and the main environmental metabolite in water, sediment and tissue is endosulfan sulfate through oxidation. A comprehensive probabilistic aquatic ecological risk assessment was conducted to determine the potential risks of existing exposures to endosulfan and endosulfan sulfate in freshwaters of South Florida based on historical data (1992-2007). The assessment included hazard assessment (Tier 1) followed by probabilistic risk assessment (Tier 2). Tier 1 compared actual measured concentrations in surface freshwaters of 47 sites in South Florida from historical data to U.S.EPA numerical water quality criteria. Based on results of Tier 1, Tier 2 focused on the acute and chronic risks of endosulfan at nine sites by comparing distributions of surface water exposure concentrations of endosulfan [i.e., for total endosulfan (summation of concentrations of alpha- and beta-isomers plus the sulfate), alpha- plus beta-endosulfan, and endosulfan sulfate (alone)] with distributions of species effects from laboratory toxicity data. In Tier 2 the distribution of total endosulfan in fish tissue (whole body) from South Florida freshwaters was also used to determine the probability of exceeding a distribution of whole body residues of endosulfan producing mortality (critical lethal residues). Tier 1 showed the majority of endosulfan water quality violations in South Florida were at locations S-178 followed by S-177 in the C-111 system (southeastern boundary of Everglades National Park (ENP)). Nine surface water sampling sites were chosen for Tier 2. Tier 2 showed the highest potentially affected fraction of toxicity values (>10%) by the estimated 90th centile exposure concentration (total endosulfan) was at S-178

  17. Numerical schemes for explosion hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therme, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    In nuclear facilities, internal or external explosions can cause confinement breaches and radioactive materials release in the environment. Hence, modeling such phenomena is crucial for safety matters. Blast waves resulting from explosions are modeled by the system of Euler equations for compressible flows, whereas Navier-Stokes equations with reactive source terms and level set techniques are used to simulate the propagation of flame front during the deflagration phase. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the creation of efficient numerical schemes to solve these complex models. The work presented here focuses on two major aspects: first, the development of consistent schemes for the Euler equations, then the buildup of reliable schemes for the front propagation. In both cases, explicit in time schemes are used, but we also introduce a pressure correction scheme for the Euler equations. Staggered discretization is used in space. It is based on the internal energy formulation of the Euler system, which insures its positivity and avoids tedious discretization of the total energy over staggered grids. A discrete kinetic energy balance is derived from the scheme and a source term is added in the discrete internal energy balance equation to preserve the exact total energy balance at the limit. High order methods of MUSCL type are used in the discrete convective operators, based solely on material velocity. They lead to positivity of density and internal energy under CFL conditions. This ensures that the total energy cannot grow and we can furthermore derive a discrete entropy inequality. Under stability assumptions of the discrete L8 and BV norms of the scheme's solutions one can prove that a sequence of converging discrete solutions necessarily converges towards the weak solution of the Euler system. Besides it satisfies a weak entropy inequality at the limit. Concerning the front propagation, we transform the flame front evolution equation (the so called

  18. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1991-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  19. Association of Coffee Consumption with Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Three Large Prospective Cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Ming; Satija, Ambika; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Hu, Yang; Sun, Qi; Han, Jiali; Lopez-Garcia, Esther; Willett, Walter; van Dam, Rob M.; Hu, Frank B.

    2015-01-01

    Background The association between consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and risk of mortality remains inconclusive. Methods and Results We examined the associations of consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee with risk of subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 74,890 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), 93,054 women in the NHS 2, and 40,557 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Coffee consumption was assessed at baseline using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. During 4,690,072 person-years of follow-up, 19,524 women and 12,432 men died. Consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee were non-linearly associated with mortality. Compared to non-drinkers, coffee consumption one to five cups/d was associated with lower risk of mortality, while coffee consumption more than five cups/d was not associated with risk of mortality. However, when restricting to never smokers, compared to non-drinkers, the HRs of mortality were 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for ≤ 1 cup/d, 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) for 1.1-3 cups/d, 0.85 (0.79 to 0.92) for 3.1-5 cups/d, and 0.88 (0.78 to 0.99) for > 5 cups/d (p for non-linearity = 0.32; p for trend coffee (p for trend = 0.022). Significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption and deaths due to cardiovascular disease, neurological diseases, and suicide. No significant association between coffee consumption and total cancer mortality was found. Conclusions Higher consumption of total coffee, caffeinated coffee, and decaffeinated coffee was associated with lower risk of total mortality. PMID:26572796

  20. Experimental and numerical study of a flapping tidal stream generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jihoon; Le, Tuyen Quang; Ko, Jin Hwan; Sitorus, Patar Ebenezer; Tambunan, Indra Hartarto; Kang, Taesam

    2017-11-01

    The tidal stream turbine is one of the systems that extract kinetic energy from tidal stream, and there are several types of the tidal stream turbine depending on its operating motion. In this research, we conduct experimental and consecutive numerical analyses of a flapping tidal stream generator with a dual configuration flappers. An experimental analysis of a small-scale prototype is conducted in a towing tank, and a numerical analysis is conducted using two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations with an in-house code. Through an experimental analysis conducted while varying these factors, a high applied load and a high input arm angle were found to be advantageous. In consecutive numerical investigations with the kinematics selected from the experiments, it was found that a rear-swing flapper contributes to the total amount of power more than a front-swing flapper with a distance of two times the chord length and with a 90-degree phase difference between the two. This research was a part of the project titled `R&D center for underwater construction robotics', funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries(MOF), Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion(KIMST,PJT200539), and Pohang City in Korea.

  1. Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 2. Risk estimates of individuals from x-ray diagnosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, T; Maruyama, T; Noda, Y; Iwai, K; Tateno, Y [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Nishizawa, K

    1981-01-01

    The risks of genetic, leukemia and malignant diseases from medical X-ray diagnostic examinations were estimated using the frequency of radiographic and fluoroscopic exposures per diagnostic examination, child expectancy, leukemia and malignancy significant factors, and using a weighting factor determined on the basis of data concerning the cancer mortality among atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and of a recommendation of International Commission of Radiological Protection. The organ or tissue doses with respect to the stochastic risks were determined with ionization chambers and thermoluminescent dosimeters placed at the positions of the organs or tissues in a RANDO woman phantom which was exposed to diagnostic X-rays according to technical factors of typical radiographic and fluoroscopic examinations obtained from a nationwide survey. The resultant risks by age-group and type of radiographic and fluoroscopic examination are tabulated in terms of risk level of 10/sup -6/. In general, the total risk defined as the sum of genetic, leukemia and malignant risks was a high value for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs involving barium meal and barium enema. For example, the total risk for young age-group was 100 to 200 x 10/sup -6/ for the X-ray diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk from the chest radiography was lower value as compared with the risk from the X-ray diagnosis of other organs or tissues. On the contrary, the risk from the chest tomography was comparable to the risk from the diagnosis of digestive organs. The total risk decreased with increasing of age for every X-ray diagnostic examination.

  2. What is the purpose of risk studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkhofer, A.

    1986-01-01

    Over the past few years, more or less comprehensive risk analyses have been carried out for numerous nuclear power plants, especially in the USA. The first risk studies conducted, especially the Rasmussen Study and the 'German Risk Study,' investigated sequences of accidents up to their environmental impacts. Risk studies today are focused mostly on assessments of technical safety, which is why they are extended only as far as the determination of core meltdown frequencies or radionuclide releases. Studies of this type are also called probabilistic safety analyses. (orig.) [de

  3. Quantity estimation based on numerical cues in the mealworm beetle (Tenebrio molitor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pau eCarazo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we used a biologically relevant experimental procedure to ask whether mealworm beetles (Tenebrio molitor are spontaneously capable of assessing quantities based on numerical cues. Like other insect species, mealworm beetles adjust their reproductive behaviour (i.e. investment in mate guarding according to the perceived risk of sperm competition (i.e. probability that a female will mate with another male. To test whether males have the ability to estimate numerosity based on numerical cues, we staged matings between virgin females and virgin males in which we varied the number of rival males the experimental male had access to immediately preceding mating as a cue to sperm competition risk (from 1 to 4. Rival males were presented sequentially, and we controlled for continuous cues by ensuring that males in all treatments were exposed to the same amount of male-male contact. Males exhibited a marked increase in the time they devoted to mate guarding in response to an increase in the number of different rival males they were exposed to. Since males could not rely on continuous cues we conclude that they kept a running tally of the number of individuals they encountered serially, which meets the requirements of the basic ordinality and cardinality principles of proto-counting. Our results thus offer good evidence of ‘true’ numerosity estimation or quantity estimation and, along with recent studies in honey-bees, suggest that vertebrates and invertebrates share similar core systems of non-verbal numerical representation.

  4. An ignored risk factor in toxicology: The total imprecision of exposure assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2010-01-01

    twice as much for maternal hair. The total imprecision of these biomarkers much exceeded the normal laboratory variability of less than 5%. Such imprecision can cause underestimation of dose-related toxicity, and data analysis should therefore include sensitivity analyses that take this factor...... were determined in cord blood, cord tissue, and maternal hair. We determined their mutual correlations and their associations with the child's neurobehavioral effect variables at age 7 years. The exposure biomarkers correlated well with one another, but the cord blood mercury concentration showed......Quality assurance of exposure biomarkers usually focuses on laboratory performance only. Using data from a prospective birth cohort study in the Faroe Islands, we have assessed the total imprecision of exposure biomarkers. As biomarkers of prenatal methylmercury exposure, mercury concentrations...

  5. Patient risk taking and spending habits correlate with willingness to pay for novel total joint arthroplasty implants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Schwarzkopf, MD, MSc

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we compare patients' risk-taking and spending behaviors to their willingness to pay (WTP for novel implants in a joint arthroplasty. 210 patients were surveyed regarding risk-taking and spending behavior, and WTP for novel implants with either increased-longevity, increased-longevity with higher risk of complications, or decreased risk of complications compared to a standard implant. Patients with increased recreational risk-taking behavior were more WTP for increased-longevity. Patients who “rarely“ take health-risks were more WTP for decreased risk of complications. Patients with higher combined risk scores were more WTP for all novel implants. Patients who paid more than $50,000 for their current car were more WTP for decreased complications. This study shows that patients' risk taking and spending behavior influences their WTP for novel implants.

  6. The use of total detriment in radiation protection and its potential extension to other hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, J.R.; Stansbury, P.S.; Selby, J.M.

    1991-10-01

    Before publication of the 1977 recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), radiation protection standards were based on dose limits to single organs. These dose limits were only loosely linked to the expected effects in the first two generations from gonadal doses and to the risk of fatal cancer from doses to specific organs. In 1977, the ICRP recommended the use of the ''effective dose equivalent (EDE),'' which is a method of summing the doses (weighted with relative risk coefficients) to all organs and tissues, and recommended an annual limit for EDE. Since the 1977 recommendations were published, a ''total risk'' or total detriment approach has been extended to include nonfatal cancers and genetic effects for all subsequent generations, i.e., the total health detriment from low doses of ionizing radiation. This paper discusses the development of this total health detriment from ionizing radiation exposures, and explores potential methods for using it with other hazards (such as exposures to other physical agents, hazardous chemicals, and fatal and nonfatal accidents) in calculating the total detriment to a worker

  7. Recurrence risk perception and quality of life following treatment of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Sarah T; Janz, Nancy K; Griffith, Kent A; Jagsi, Reshma; Friese, Christopher R; Kurian, Allison W; Hamilton, Ann S; Ward, Kevin C; Morrow, Monica; Wallner, Lauren P; Katz, Steven J

    2017-02-01

    Little is known about different ways of assessing risk of distant recurrence following cancer treatment (e.g., numeric or descriptive). We sought to evaluate the association between overestimation of risk of distant recurrence of breast cancer and key patient-reported outcomes, including quality of life and worry. We surveyed a weighted random sample of newly diagnosed patients with early-stage breast cancer identified through SEER registries of Los Angeles County & Georgia (2013-14) ~2 months after surgery (N = 2578, RR = 71%). Actual 10-year risk of distant recurrence after treatment was based on clinical factors for women with DCIS & low-risk invasive cancer (Stg 1A, ER+, HER2-, Gr 1-2). Women reported perceptions of their risk numerically (0-100%), with values ≥10% for DCIS & ≥20% for invasive considered overestimates. Perceptions of "moderate, high or very high" risk were considered descriptive overestimates. In our analytic sample (N = 927), we assessed factors correlated with both types of overestimation and report multivariable associations between overestimation and QoL (PROMIS physical & mental health) and frequent worry. 30.4% of women substantially overestimated their risk of distant recurrence numerically and 14.7% descriptively. Few factors other than family history were significantly associated with either type of overestimation. Both types of overestimation were significantly associated with frequent worry, and lower QoL. Ensuring understanding of systemic recurrence risk, particularly among patients with favorable prognosis, is important. Better risk communication by clinicians may translate to better risk comprehension among patients and to improvements in QoL.

  8. Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

  9. Total antioxidants in plasma of hemodialysed patients and healthy controls measured by two commercial assays

    OpenAIRE

    Ruskovska, Tatjana; Jansen, Eugene

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: As a result of an increased interest in oxidative stress research, in both basic and clinical studies, numerous commercial test kits became available. The aim of this study was to evaluate the results for total antioxidants measured by two commercial assays in a complex clinical condition such as single hemodialysis session in patients on chronic hemodialysis treatment, in comparison to healthy controls. Methods: The level of plasma total antioxidants was measured by BAP ...

  10. Alpine Skiing With total knee ArthroPlasty (ASWAP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, M.; Pötzelsberger, B.; Scheiber, P.

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the effect of alpine skiing for 12 weeks on skeletal muscle characteristics and biomarkers of glucose homeostasis and cardiovascular risk factors. Twenty-three patients with a total knee arthroplasty (TKA) were studied 2.9 ± 0.9 years (mean ± SD) after the operation. Fourteen...

  11. Total Body Photography as an Aid to Skin Self-examination: A Patient's Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secker, Lisanne J; Bergman, Wilma; Kukutsch, Nicole A

    2016-02-01

    Skin self-examination can help patients who are at high risk for developing melanoma to become more involved in their own surveillance and treatment. This study examined the use of total body photography as an aid to skin self-examination from the patients' perspective. A total of 179 individuals at high risk for developing melanoma who had undergone total body photography (60.5% response rate) completed a self-reported questionnaire assessing the frequency of skin self-examination, perceived usefulness of total body photography, and a variety of potential demographic, clinical and psychological factors. Only approximately half of the participants indicated skin self-examination as useful and 78.9% preferred clinical skin examination by a specialist. Finding total body photography useful was associated with having received instructions on how to perform skin self-examination, the use of a (hand)mirror, and confidence to detect changing moles. These findings allow us to develop strategies to further improve patients' self-screening behaviours.

  12. VIRTUAL MODELING OF A NUMERICAL CONTROL MACHINE TOOL USED FOR COMPLEX MACHINING OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPESCU Adrian

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the 3D virtual model of the numerical control machine Modustar 100, in terms of machine elements. This is a CNC machine of modular construction, all components allowing the assembly in various configurations. The paper focused on the design of the subassemblies specific to the axes numerically controlled by means of CATIA v5, which contained different drive kinematic chains of different translation modules that ensures translation on X, Y and Z axis. Machine tool development for high speed and highly precise cutting demands employment of advanced simulation techniques witch it reflect on cost of total development of the machine.

  13. Visual search for conjunctions of physical and numerical size shows that they are processed independently.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Kenith V; Puri, Amrita M; Faulkenberry, Thomas J; Dague, Taylor D

    2017-03-01

    The size congruity effect refers to the interaction between numerical magnitude and physical digit size in a symbolic comparison task. Though this effect is well established in the typical 2-item scenario, the mechanisms at the root of the interference remain unclear. Two competing explanations have emerged in the literature: an early interaction model and a late interaction model. In the present study, we used visual conjunction search to test competing predictions from these 2 models. Participants searched for targets that were defined by a conjunction of physical and numerical size. Some distractors shared the target's physical size, and the remaining distractors shared the target's numerical size. We held the total number of search items fixed and manipulated the ratio of the 2 distractor set sizes. The results from 3 experiments converge on the conclusion that numerical magnitude is not a guiding feature for visual search, and that physical and numerical magnitude are processed independently, which supports a late interaction model of the size congruity effect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Risk Management in Supply Chain using Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relations

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Jafarnejad; Mehran Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ali Abbaszadeh; Seyed Mehdi Abtahi

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, supply chains are exposed to numerous risks. Thus, to success in risky business environment, it is imperative for firms to systematically manage supply chain risks. Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of supply chain risks. The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive approach to risk management in supply chains. Thus, by an appropriate review of the literature, supply chain risk sources are identified in six areas. Then, a CFPR method is...

  15. Numerical Simulation of Non-Thermal Food Preservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauh, C.; Krauss, J.; Ertunc, Ö.; Delgado, a.

    2010-09-01

    Food preservation is an important process step in food technology regarding product safety and product quality. Novel preservation techniques are currently developed, that aim at improved sensory and nutritional value but comparable safety than in conventional thermal preservation techniques. These novel non-thermal food preservation techniques are based for example on high pressures up to one GPa or pulsed electric fields. in literature studies the high potential of high pressures (HP) and of pulsed electric fields (PEF) is shown due to their high retention of valuable food components as vitamins and flavour and selective inactivation of spoiling enzymes and microorganisms. for the design of preservation processes based on the non-thermal techniques it is crucial to predict the effect of high pressure and pulsed electric fields on the food components and on the spoiling enzymes and microorganisms locally and time-dependent in the treated product. Homogenous process conditions (especially of temperature fields in HP and PEF processing and of electric fields in PEF) are aimed at to avoid the need of over-processing and the connected quality loss and to minimize safety risks due to under-processing. the present contribution presents numerical simulations of thermofluiddynamical phenomena inside of high pressure autoclaves and pulsed electric field treatment chambers. in PEF processing additionally the electric fields are considered. Implementing kinetics of occurring (bio-) chemical reactions in the numerical simulations of the temperature, flow and electric fields enables the evaluation of the process homogeneity and efficiency connected to different process parameters of the preservation techniques. Suggestions to achieve safe and high quality products are concluded out of the numerical results.

  16. A study of the one dimensional total generalised variation regularisation problem

    KAUST Repository

    Papafitsoros, Konstantinos

    2015-03-01

    © 2015 American Institute of Mathematical Sciences. In this paper we study the one dimensional second order total generalised variation regularisation (TGV) problem with L2 data fitting term. We examine the properties of this model and we calculate exact solutions using simple piecewise affine functions as data terms. We investigate how these solutions behave with respect to the TGV parameters and we verify our results using numerical experiments.

  17. A study of the one dimensional total generalised variation regularisation problem

    KAUST Repository

    Papafitsoros, Konstantinos; Bredies, Kristian

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 American Institute of Mathematical Sciences. In this paper we study the one dimensional second order total generalised variation regularisation (TGV) problem with L2 data fitting term. We examine the properties of this model and we calculate exact solutions using simple piecewise affine functions as data terms. We investigate how these solutions behave with respect to the TGV parameters and we verify our results using numerical experiments.

  18. Numerical analysis of boosting scheme for scalable NMR quantum computation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SaiToh, Akira; Kitagawa, Masahiro

    2005-01-01

    Among initialization schemes for ensemble quantum computation beginning at thermal equilibrium, the scheme proposed by Schulman and Vazirani [in Proceedings of the 31st ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC'99) (ACM Press, New York, 1999), pp. 322-329] is known for the simple quantum circuit to redistribute the biases (polarizations) of qubits and small time complexity. However, our numerical simulation shows that the number of qubits initialized by the scheme is rather smaller than expected from the von Neumann entropy because of an increase in the sum of the binary entropies of individual qubits, which indicates a growth in the total classical correlation. This result--namely, that there is such a significant growth in the total binary entropy--disagrees with that of their analysis

  19. Numeral Incorporation in Japanese Sign Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ktejik, Mish

    2013-01-01

    This article explores the morphological process of numeral incorporation in Japanese Sign Language. Numeral incorporation is defined and the available research on numeral incorporation in signed language is discussed. The numeral signs in Japanese Sign Language are then introduced and followed by an explanation of the numeral morphemes which are…

  20. Using risk maps to link land value damage and risk as basis of flexible risk management for brownfield redevelopment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I-chun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2013-02-01

    Brownfield redevelopment involves numerous uncertain financial risks associated with market demand and land value. To reduce the uncertainty of the specific impact of land value and social costs, this study develops small-scale risk maps to determine the relationship between population risk (PR) and damaged land value (DLV) to facilitate flexible land reutilisation plans. This study used the spatial variability of exposure parameters in each village to develop the contaminated site-specific risk maps. In view of the combination of risk and cost, risk level that most affected land use was mainly 1.00×10(-6) to 1.00×10(-5) in this study area. Village 2 showed the potential for cost-effective conversion with contaminated land development. If the risk of remediation target was set at 5.00×10(-6), the DLV could be reduced by NT$15,005 million for the land developer. The land developer will consider the net benefit by quantifying the trade-off between the changes of land value and the cost of human health. In this study, small-scale risk maps can illuminate the economic incentive potential for contaminated site redevelopment through the adjustment of land value damage and human health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Volumetry based biomarker speed of growth: Quantifying the change of total tumor volume in whole-body magnetic resonance imaging over time improves risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wennmann, Markus; Kintzelé, Laurent; Piraud, Marie; Menze, Bjoern H; Hielscher, Thomas; Hofmanninger, Johannes; Wagner, Barbara; Kauczor, Hans-Ulrich; Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens; Langs, Georg; Weber, Marc-André

    2018-05-18

    The purpose of this study was to improve risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients, introducing new 3D-volumetry based imaging biomarkers derived from whole-body MRI. Two-hundred twenty whole-body MRIs from 63 patients with smoldering multiple myeloma were retrospectively analyzed and all focal lesions >5mm were manually segmented for volume quantification. The imaging biomarkers total tumor volume, speed of growth (development of the total tumor volume over time), number of focal lesions, development of the number of focal lesions over time and the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group were compared, taking 2-year progression rate, sensitivity and false positive rate into account. Speed of growth, using a cutoff of 114mm 3 /month, was able to isolate a high-risk group with a 2-year progression rate of 82.5%. Additionally, it showed by far the highest sensitivity in this study and in comparison to other biomarkers in the literature, detecting 63.2% of patients who progress within 2 years. Furthermore, its false positive rate (8.7%) was much lower compared to the recent imaging biomarker '>1 focal lesion' of the International Myeloma Working Group. Therefore, speed of growth is the preferable imaging biomarker for risk stratification of smoldering multiple myeloma patients.

  2. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  3. Demand: a total nuclear disarmament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hessel, Stephane; Jacquard, Albert

    2012-01-01

    This bibliographical note presents a book, in which the authors make a plea for a total nuclear disarmament. They think that humanity cannot be found in competition, but in emulation, and examine how we can get rid of the nuclear bomb. They discuss the background of nuclear energy, state that nuclear weapons have always been useless and extremely dangerous, consider arms race as crazy and as a crime against humanity, recall that nuclear weapons already made numerous victims (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, nuclear tests), that they are a sword of Damocles over 7 billions human beings, that nuclear winter would be an apocalypse, that the Non Proliferation Treaty is a decoy. They discuss the political role of nuclear weapons, and outline that the only solution is their abolition. They discuss what has already been done and what is still to be done, and formulate a strategy for the future

  4. Long-term composition dynamics of PAH-containing NAPLs and implications for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, C.A.; Knightes, C.D.; Brown, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Subsurface contaminants such as coal tar, creosote, diesel fuel, and other petroleum-derived materials typically exist as very complex chemical mixtures. Risk assessment is useful for site management if a single metric can represent the composition-dependent risk profile of the mixture. This paper examines the factors governing human health risk assessment for multicomponent nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) containing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A model is presented describing the interdependence of the dissolution rates of individual compounds and the shifts in the NAPL composition that occur due to the large differences in aqueous solubilities. The model also accounts for solidification of the less soluble NAPL constituents. Thirty-year numerical simulations describe composition dynamics for natural environmental processes as well as three remediation processes: pump-and-treat, bioremediation, and solvent extraction. Carcinogenic risk due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater at the source is estimated, and its dependence on contaminant removal and NAPL composition shifts is described. When composition dynamics are slow, a compound like naphthalene has great potential to contribute to risk because it may persist in groundwater. When there is significant depletion of the lower molecular weight compounds, the risk is dominated by contributions from compounds such as benzo[a]pyrene. Remediation technologies have the greatest potential for risk reduction if they are effective in removing the more carcinogenic, high molecular weight compounds. Because PAHs can contribute to risk for different reasons and because of the interdependence of their behaviors, compositional approaches lead to better risk predictions for PAHs than simple lumped metrics such as total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

  5. Analysis of an Underground Structure Settlement Risk due to Tunneling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vahdatirad, Mohammad Javad; Ghodrat, Hadi; Firouzianbandpey, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    of the underground commercial center structure settlement is estimated using both empirical and numerical methods. The settlement risk level of the commercial center structure is determined based on presented definitions about risk classification of various types of structures. Consequently, tunneling processes...

  6. Adaptive Proximal Point Algorithms for Total Variation Image Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Chen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Image restoration is a fundamental problem in various areas of imaging sciences. This paper presents a class of adaptive proximal point algorithms (APPA with contraction strategy for total variational image restoration. In each iteration, the proposed methods choose an adaptive proximal parameter matrix which is not necessary symmetric. In fact, there is an inner extrapolation in the prediction step, which is followed by a correction step for contraction. And the inner extrapolation is implemented by an adaptive scheme. By using the framework of contraction method, global convergence result and a convergence rate of O(1/N could be established for the proposed methods. Numerical results are reported to illustrate the efficiency of the APPA methods for solving total variation image restoration problems. Comparisons with the state-of-the-art algorithms demonstrate that the proposed methods are comparable and promising.

  7. Numerical analysis of variations in posterior cruciate ligament properties and balancing techniques on total knee arthroplasty loading.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zelle, J.; Heesterbeek, P.J.; De Waal Malefijt, M.; Verdonschot, Nicolaas Jacobus Joseph

    2010-01-01

    Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a widely used and successful orthopaedic procedure. During TKA, the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) can either be retained or substituted by a post-cam mechanism. One of the main functions of the PCL is to facilitate femoral rollback during knee flexion. For

  8. Employee satisfaction: an integral component of total quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gvazdinskas, L C; Maffetone, M A

    1995-01-01

    As part of the Total Quality Management process, the leadership of Rush Medical Laboratories, with a staff of 400, made an initial commitment to focus on their own employees as the most important customers. Only after the employees' development, their help, their support, and their empowerment could Rush Medical Laboratories make the improvements in customer relationships and obtain the operations improvement, cost savings, and productivity necessary to maintain a competitive edge. This article outlines the numerous employee initiatives that have resulted from this commitment. All of these initiatives were successful at some point during the 5 or more years since the incorporation of TQM within Rush Medical Laboratories. In the spirit of continuous improvement, some have been modified or discontinued and replaced by others. This article provides an overview of the many improvements that are possible when employees are provided a forum in which to voice their needs, and it challenges the management and employees of all laboratories to focus on this vital component of total quality.

  9. A numerical model for etching through a circular hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, P; Chai, J C; Zheng, H; Lam, Y C; Murukeshan, V M

    2006-01-01

    A numerical model based on the total concentration of etchant is proposed to model the wet chemical etching through a circular hole. The reaction at the etchant-substrate interface is assumed to be infinitely fast i.e. etching is controlled by the diffusion of etchant to the interface. The proposed model is based on a fixed-grid approach analogous to the enthalpy method. The total concentration of etchant is the sum of the unreacted etchant concentration and the reacted etchant concentration. The reacted concentration of etchant is a measure of the etchfront position during etching. The governing mass diffusion equation based on the total concentration of etchant includes the interface condition. The etchfront position is found implicitly using the proposed approach. The computational domain is fixed, which includes the whole etchant and substrate domain including the mask region. For demonstration purposes, the finite volume method is used to solve the governing mass diffusion equation with prescribed initial and boundary conditions. The effect of mask thickness and initial etchant concentration on the shape evolution of etchfront is studied

  10. Instability following total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Merchan, E Carlos

    2011-10-01

    Background Knee prosthesis instability (KPI) is a frequent cause of failure of total knee arthroplasty. Moreover, the degree of constraint required to achieve immediate and long-term stability in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is frequently debated. Questions This review aims to define the problem, analyze risk factors, and review strategies for prevention and treatment of KPI. Methods A PubMed (MEDLINE) search of the years 2000 to 2010 was performed using two key words: TKA and instability. One hundred and sixty-five initial articles were identified. The most important (17) articles as judged by the author were selected for this review. The main criteria for selection were that the articles addressed and provided solutions to the diagnosis and treatment of KPI. Results Patient-related risk factors predisposing to post-operative instability include deformity requiring a large surgical correction and aggressive ligament release, general or regional neuromuscular pathology, and hip or foot deformities. KPI can be prevented in most cases with appropriate selection of implants and good surgical technique. When ligament instability is anticipated post-operatively, the need for implants with a greater degree of constraint should be anticipated. In patients without significant varus or valgus malalignment and without significant flexion contracture, the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) can be retained. However, the PCL should be sacrificed when deformity exists particularly in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, previous patellectomy, previous high tibial osteotomy or distal femoral osteotomy, and posttraumatic osteoarthritis with disruption of the PCL. In most cases, KPI requires revision surgery. Successful outcomes can only be obtained if the cause of KPI is identified and addressed. Conclusions Instability following TKA is a common cause of the need for revision. Typically, knees with deformity, rheumatoid arthritis, previous patellectomy or high tibial osteotomy, and

  11. Psychopharmacologic treatment and blood transfusion in fast-track total hip and knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gylvin, Silas Hinsch; Jørgensen, Christoffer Calov; Fink-Jensen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and other psychotropics are receiving increasing attention due to reports on inhibition of thrombocyte function and an increased bleeding risk in surgical settings. Studies in total hip and total knee arthroplasty (THA and TKA...

  12. Association of Coffee Consumption With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in 3 Large Prospective Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Ming; Satija, Ambika; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Hu, Yang; Sun, Qi; Han, Jiali; Lopez-Garcia, Esther; Willett, Walter; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

    2015-12-15

    The association between consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and risk of mortality remains inconclusive. We examined the associations of consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee with risk of subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 74,890 women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), 93,054 women in the Nurses' Health Study II, and 40,557 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Coffee consumption was assessed at baseline using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. During 4,690,072 person-years of follow-up, 19,524 women and 12,432 men died. Consumption of total, caffeinated, and decaffeinated coffee were nonlinearly associated with mortality. Compared with nondrinkers, coffee consumption of 1 to 5 cups per day was associated with lower risk of mortality, whereas coffee consumption of more than 5 cups per day was not associated with risk of mortality. However, when restricting to never smokers compared with nondrinkers, the hazard ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) of mortality were 0.94 (0.89-0.99) for 1.0 or less cup per day, 0.92 (0.87-0.97) for 1.1 to 3.0 cups per day, 0.85 (0.79-0.92) for 3.1 to 5.0 cup per day, and 0.88 (0.78-0.99) for more than 5.0 cup per day (P value for nonlinearity = 0.32; P value for trend coffee (P value for trend = 0.022). Significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption and deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease, neurologic diseases, and suicide. No significant association between coffee consumption and total cancer mortality was found. Higher consumption of total coffee, caffeinated coffee, and decaffeinated coffee was associated with lower risk of total mortality. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. A simple and rational numerical method of two-phase flow with volume-junction model. 2. The numerical method for general condition of two-phase flow in non-equilibrium states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okazaki, Motoaki

    1997-11-01

    In the previous report, the usefulness of a new numerical method to achieve a rigorous numerical calculation using a simple explicit method with the volume-junction model was presented with the verification calculation for the depressurization of a saturated two-phase mixture. In this report, on the basis of solution method above, a numerical method for general condition of two-phase flow in non-equilibrium states is presented. In general condition of two-phase flow, the combinations of saturated and non-saturated conditions of each phase are considered in the each flow of volume and junction. Numerical evaluation programs are separately prepared for each combination of flow condition. Several numerical calculations of various kinds of non-equilibrium two-phase flow are made to examine the validity of the numerical method. Calculated results showed that the thermodynamic states obtained in different solution schemes were consistent with each other. In the first scheme, the states are determined by using the steam table as a function of pressure and specific enthalpy which are obtained as the solutions of simultaneous equations. In the second scheme, density and specific enthalpy of each phase are directly calculated by using conservation equations of mass and enthalpy of each phase, respectively. Further, no accumulation of error in mass and energy was found. As for the specific enthalpy, two cases of using energy equations for the volume are examined. The first case uses total energy conservation equation and the second case uses the type of the first law of thermodynamics. The results of both cases agreed well. (author)

  14. Modifying a numerical algorithm for solving the matrix equation X + AX T B = C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorontsov, Yu. O.

    2013-06-01

    Certain modifications are proposed for a numerical algorithm solving the matrix equation X + AX T B = C. By keeping the intermediate results in storage and repeatedly using them, it is possible to reduce the total complexity of the algorithm from O( n 4) to O( n 3) arithmetic operations.

  15. Total facing the new oil and gas situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desmarest, Th.

    2006-01-01

    Total produces oil and gas in more than thirty countries, and contributes to warding off energy shortfalls through its exploration and investment programmes, through its expertise at the leading edge of hydrocarbon technology, and by its attention to the interests of host countries. However, the combination of unflagging demand and growing dependence vis-a-vis the principal producing regions is a source of tension and of risks which call for a much greater discipline in energy consumption and a diversification of energy sources. Thierry Desmarest, the Chairman and Managing Director of Total, gives his view of the new energy situation. (author)

  16. Is There a Role for Preoperative Iron Supplementation in Patients Preparing for a Total Hip or Total Knee Arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petis, Stephen M; Lanting, Brent A; Vasarhelyi, Edward M; Naudie, Douglas D R; Ralley, Fiona E; Howard, James L

    2017-09-01

    Several treatment modalities exist for the treatment of perioperative anemia. We determined the effect of oral iron supplementation on preoperative anemia, and the use of blood-conserving interventions before total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). A total of 3435 total joint arthroplasties (1461 THAs and 1974 TKAs) were analyzed during 2 phases of a blood conservation program. The first phase used erythropoietin alfa (EPO) or intravenous (IV) iron for patients at risk for perioperative anemia. The second phase included these interventions, as well as preoperative iron supplementation. The effect on preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) and serum ferritin, as well as EPO and IV iron utilization, was determined. Oral iron therapy increased preoperative Hb level by 6 g/L (P iron reduced from 4% to 2% (P = .05) and 5% to 2% (P iron therapy reduced the burden of perioperative anemia and reduced utilization of other blood-conserving therapies before THA and TKA. Future research should delineate the cost-effectiveness of oral iron therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Numerical simulation for quenching meshes with TONUS platform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bin, Chen; Hongxing, Yu

    2009-01-01

    For mitigation of hydrogen risks during severe accidents to protect the integrity of containment, PAR and ignitors are used in current advanced nuclear power plants. But multiple combustions induced by ignitors and consequent DDT phenomena are not practically eliminated. An innovative design call 'quenching meshes' is considered to confine hydrogen flame within one compartment by metallic meshes, so that hazardous flame propagation can be prevented. The numerical simulation results based on discretization of the full Navier-Stokes equations with global one-step reaction represented by Arrhenius laminar combustion model have shown the possibility of flame quenching 'numerically'. This is achieved via multiplication of the combustion rate expression by a Heaviside function having an ignition temperature as a parameter. Qualitative behavior of the computed flow shows that the flame velocity diminishes while passing through a quenching mesh, while qualitative analysis based on the energy balance reveals the mechanism of flame quenching. All the above analysis has been performed for a stoichiometric mixture and normal initial pressure and temperature for initial conditions. For further research we would like to suggest the investigation of the influence of the mixture composition, initial pressure and/or temperature on the quenching criteria

  18. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-01-01

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

  19. Risk of fire and dust explosions analysis in thermal Power station of ''As Pontes''; Analisis del Riesgo de fuego y Explosion en la Central Termica As Pontes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    Among the numerous difficulties come up in the industrial processes that operate with coal, the handling of combustible solids constitutes a priority objective because of the potential risk of fire and dust explosions that implies. The aim of this project was to determine the coal usage conditions that assure total safety in its manipulation avoiding every risks at the Thermal Power Station. Several variables had to be considered starting with the basis concept of coal, which ranges very different types, compositions and origins and studying the coal handling and operation condition on different areas in the Thermal Power Station. (Author)

  20. Image Restoration Based on the Hybrid Total-Variation-Type Model

    OpenAIRE

    Shi, Baoli; Pang, Zhi-Feng; Yang, Yu-Fei

    2012-01-01

    We propose a hybrid total-variation-type model for the image restoration problem based on combining advantages of the ROF model with the LLT model. Since two ${L}^{1}$ -norm terms in the proposed model make it difficultly solved by using some classically numerical methods directly, we first employ the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to solve a general form of the proposed model. Then, based on the ADMM and the Moreau-Yosida decomposition theory, a more efficient method call...

  1. A Primal-Dual Approach for a Total Variation Wasserstein Flow

    KAUST Repository

    Benning, Martin; Calatroni, Luca; Dü ring, Bertram; Schö nlieb, Carola-Bibiane

    2013-01-01

    We consider a nonlinear fourth-order diffusion equation that arises in denoising of image densities. We propose an implicit time-stepping scheme that employs a primal-dual method for computing the subgradient of the total variation seminorm. The constraint on the dual variable is relaxed by adding a penalty term, depending on a parameter that determines the weight of the penalisation. The paper is furnished with some numerical examples showing the denoising properties of the model considered. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

  2. Suggested cut-off values for vitamin D as a risk marker for total and cardiac death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrycja Anna Naesgaard

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Several studies have demonstrated an association between low vitamin D levels and cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D cut off levels are still under debate. Objectives: To assess two cut-off levels, 40 nmol/L and 70 nmol/L, respectively, for vitamin D measured as 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OHD] in chest pain patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.Methods: We investigated 1853 patients from coastal-Norway and inland Northern-Argentina. A similar database was used for pooling of data. 2-year follow-up data including all-cause mortality, cardiac death and sudden cardiac death in the total patient population were analyzed, applying univariate and multivariable analysis. Results: 255 patients with known vitamin D concentrations died. In the multivariable analysis, there was a decrease in total mortality above a cut-off level of 40 nmol/L and a decrease in cardiac death above a cut-off level of 70 nmol/L, [HRs of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.50 – 0.88, p = 0.004 and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.22 – 0.94, p = 0.034, respectively].Conclusion: Vitamin D cut-off levels of 40 nmol/L and 70 nmol/L, were related to total mortality and cardiac death, respectively.

  3. Numerical Prediction of the Influence of Thrust Reverser on Aeroengine's Aerodynamic Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhiqiang, Wang; Xigang, Shen; Jun, Hu; Xiang, Gao; Liping, Liu

    2017-11-01

    A numerical method was developed to predict the aerodynamic stability of a high bypass ratio turbofan engine, at the landing stage of a large transport aircraft, when the thrust reverser was deployed. 3D CFD simulation and 2D aeroengine aerodynamic stability analysis code were performed in this work, the former is to achieve distortion coefficient for the analysis of engine stability. The 3D CFD simulation was divided into two steps, the single engine calculation and the integrated aircraft and engine calculation. Results of the CFD simulation show that with the decreasing of relative wind Mach number, the engine inlet will suffer more severe flow distortion. The total pressure and total temperature distortion coefficients at the inlet of the engines were obtained from the results of the numerical simulation. Then an aeroengine aerodynamic stability analysis program was used to quantitatively analyze the aerodynamic stability of the high bypass ratio turbofan engine. The results of the stability analysis show that the engine can work stably, when the reverser flow is re-ingested. But the anti-distortion ability of the booster is weaker than that of the fan and high pressure compressor. It is a weak link of engine stability.

  4. Meta-analysis: Does garlic intake reduce risk of gastric cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodali, R T; Eslick, Guy D

    2015-01-01

    In the past 2 decades, various epidemiological studies investigated whether garlic can positively modify the risk of gastric cancer. Garlic contains numerous sulfide compounds, including diallyl trisulfide, which have anticarcinogenic properties. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine if garlic intake reduces the risk of gastric cancer. An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and EMBASE to June 2014 was completed. There were 14 case control studies, 2 randomized controlled studies, and 1 cohort study that fulfilled our inclusion criteria. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of gastric cancer with garlic consumption. Meta-analysis of a total of 8,621 cases and 14,889 controls was conducted. Significant variability in duration of garlic intake and reference categories for amount of intake was noted. High, low, and any garlic intake were all associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. High intake had the most significant risk reduction, OR = 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38-0.62). Heterogeneity was low (I² = 30.85, P = 0.17). A more modest risk reduction was associated with low intake, OR = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97). Half of the studies did not separate garlic intake into high or low amounts, intake was only noted as consumption vs. non-consumption. Any amount of consumption still showed a risk reduction similar to low intake, OR = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.60-1.00). Low and any amount of consumption showed moderate heterogeneity (58% and 45%, respectively). Garlic intake appears to be associated with reduced risk of gastric cancer. Further high quality studies are required to confirm this finding and to assess the amount of garlic that needs to be consumed for protective effect.

  5. A Gaussian quadrature method for total energy analysis in electronic state calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukushima, Kimichika

    This article reports studies by Fukushima and coworkers since 1980 concerning their highly accurate numerical integral method using Gaussian quadratures to evaluate the total energy in electronic state calculations. Gauss-Legendre and Gauss-Laguerre quadratures were used for integrals in the finite and infinite regions, respectively. Our previous article showed that, for diatomic molecules such as CO and FeO, elliptic coordinates efficiently achieved high numerical integral accuracy even with a numerical basis set including transition metal atomic orbitals. This article will generalize straightforward details for multiatomic systems with direct integrals in each decomposed elliptic coordinate determined from the nuclear positions of picked-up atom pairs. Sample calculations were performed for the molecules O3 and H2O. This article will also try to present, in another coordinate, a numerical integral by partially using the Becke's decomposition published in 1988, but without the Becke's fuzzy cell generated by the polynomials of internuclear distance between the pair atoms. Instead, simple nuclear weights comprising exponential functions around nuclei are used. The one-center integral is performed with a Gaussian quadrature pack in a spherical coordinate, included in the author's original program in around 1980. As for this decomposition into one-center integrals, sample calculations are carried out for Li2.

  6. China's numerical management system for reducing national energy intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Huimin; Zhao, Xiaofan; Yu, Yuqing; Wu, Tong; Qi, Ye

    2016-01-01

    In China, the national target for energy intensity reduction, when integrated with target disaggregation and information feedback systems, constitutes a numerical management system, which is a hallmark of modern governance. This paper points out the technical weaknesses of China's current numerical management system. In the process of target disaggregation, the national target cannot be fully disaggregated to local governments, sectors and enterprises without omissions. At the same time, governments at lower levels face pressure for reducing energy intensity that exceeds their respective jurisdictions. In the process of information feedback, information failure is inevitable due to statistical inaccuracy. Furthermore, the monitoring system is unable to correct all errors, and data verification plays a limited role in the examination system. To address these problems, we recommend that the government: use total energy consumption as the primary indicator of energy management; reform the accounting and reporting of energy statistics toward greater consistency, timeliness and transparency; clearly define the responsibility of the higher levels of government. - Highlights: •We assess drawbacks of China's numerical management system for energy intensity. •The national energy intensity target cannot be fully disaggregated without omissions. •Data distortion is due to failures in statistics, monitoring and examination system. •Lower-level governments’ ability to meet energy target is weaker than their pressure. •We provide three policy recommendations for China's policy-makers.

  7. Recurrence risk in de novo structural chromosomal rearrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Benno; Kotzot, Dieter

    2007-08-01

    According to the textbook of Gardner and Sutherland [2004], the standard on genetic counseling for chromosome abnormalities, the recurrence risk of de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosome rearrangements is less than 0.5-2% and takes into account recurrence by chance, gonadal mosaicism, and somatic-gonadal mosaicism. However, these figures are roughly estimated and neither any systematic study nor exact or evidence-based risk calculations are available. To address this question, an extensive literature search was performed and surprisingly only 29 case reports of recurrence of de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosomal rearrangements were found. Thirteen of them were with a trisomy 21 due to an i(21q) replacing one normal chromosome 21. In eight of them low-level mosaicism in one of the parents was found either in fibroblasts or in blood or in both. As a consequence of the low number of cases and theoretical considerations (clinical consequences, mechanisms of formation, etc.), the recurrence risk should be reduced to less than 1% for a de novo i(21q) and to even less than 0.3% for all other de novo structural or combined structural and numeric chromosomal rearrangements. As the latter is lower than the commonly accepted risk of approximately 0.3% for indicating an invasive prenatal diagnosis and as the risk of abortion of a healthy fetus after chorionic villous sampling or amniocentesis is higher than approximately 0.5%, invasive prenatal investigation in most cases is not indicated and should only be performed if explicitly asked by the parents subsequent to appropriate genetic counseling. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  8. Reverse hybrid total hip arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wangen, Helge; Havelin, Leif I.; Fenstad, Anne M

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose - The use of a cemented cup together with an uncemented stem in total hip arthroplasty (THA) has become popular in Norway and Sweden during the last decade. The results of this prosthetic concept, reverse hybrid THA, have been sparsely described. The Nordic Arthroplasty....... Patients and methods - From the NARA, we extracted data on reverse hybrid THAs from January 1, 2000 until December 31, 2013. 38,415 such hips were studied and compared with cemented THAs. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the prosthesis survival and the relative risk...

  9. Risk of arrhythmia induced by psychotropic medications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanoe, Søren; Kristensen, Diana; Fink-Jensen, Anders

    2014-01-01

    with psychotropic medications. The algorithm integrates the risk categories of the individual drugs and pre-disposing risk factors and suggests a prudent follow-up for patients with an increased risk. We believe this clinically manageable guideline might improve safety in the many and rapidly increasing number...... of the major mental disorders are associated with a large risk of suicide if untreated. The observed risk of malignant arrhythmia associated with treatment with psychotropic drugs calls for clinical guidelines integrating the risk of the individual drug and other potentially interacting risk factors......Several drugs used in the treatment of mental diseases are associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). A general cause-relationship between the intake of these drugs and SCD is unattainable, but numerous case reports of drug-induced malignant arrhythmia and epidemiological...

  10. Influence of risk factors on stomal recurrence after total laryngectomy for laryngeal carcinomas: A meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Yi Wang

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: In this study, we proved that subglottic location, advanced tumor stage, especially T4 stage, and preoperative tracheostomy were risk factors for SRAL for larynx cancer. However, many other potential risk factors, such as surgical margins, could not be determined for inadequate records. Hence, more prospective trials should be designed to determine the risk factors for SRAL for larynx cancer.

  11. Risk to Water Security on Small Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holding, S. T.; Allen, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The majority of fresh water available on small islands is shallow groundwater that forms a freshwater lens. Freshwater lenses are generally limited in extent and as such are vulnerable to many stressors that impact water security. These include stressors related to climate change, such as sea level rise, as well as those related to human impacts, such as contamination. Traditionally, water security assessments have focussed on indicators that provide a snapshot of the current condition. However, recent work suggests that in order to effectively manage the water system, it is also important to consider uncertain future impacts to the system by evaluating how different stressors might impact water security. In this study, a framework for assessing risk to water security was developed and tested on Andros Island in The Bahamas. The assessment comprises two main components that characterise the water system: numerical modelling studies and a hazard survey. A baseline numerical model of the freshwater lens throughout Andros Island was developed to simulate the morphology of the freshwater lens and estimate the freshwater resources currently available. The model was prepared using SEAWAT, a density-dependent flow and solute transport code. Various stressors were simulated in the model to evaluate the response of the freshwater lens to predicted future shifts in climate patterns, sea level rise, and changes in water use. A hazard survey was also conducted on the island to collect information related to the storage of contaminants, sanitation infrastructure, waste disposal practices and groundwater abstraction rates. The results of the survey form a geo-spatial database of the location and associated hazards to the freshwater lens. The resulting risk framework provides a ranking of overall risk to water security based on information from the numerical modelling and hazard survey. The risk framework is implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provides a map

  12. Determining ecoregional numeric nutrient criteria by stressor-response models in Yungui ecoregion lakes, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, Shouliang; Ma, Chunzi; Xi, Beidou; Tong, Zhonghua; He, Zhuoshi; Su, Jing; Wu, Fengchang

    2014-01-01

    The importance of developing numeric nutrient criteria has been recognized to protect the designated uses of water bodies from nutrient enrichment that is associated with broadly occurring levels of nitrogen/phosphorus pollution. The identification and estimation of stressor-response models in aquatic ecosystems has been shown to be useful in the determination of nutrient criteria. In this study, three methods based on stressor-response relationships were applied to determine nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes with respect to total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and planktonic chlorophyll a (Chl a). Simple linear regression (SLR) models were established to provide an estimate of the relationship between a response variable and a stressor. Multiple linear regressions were used to simultaneously estimate the effect of TP and TN on Chl a. A morphoedaphic index (MEI) was applied to derive nutrient criteria using data from Yungui ecoregion lakes, which were considered as areas with less anthropogenic influences. Nutrient criteria, as determined by these three methods, showed broad agreement for all parameters. The ranges of numeric nutrient criteria for Yungui ecoregion lakes were determined as follows: TP 0.008-0.010 mg/L and TN 0.140-0.178 mg/L. The stressor-response analysis described will be of benefit to support countries in their numeric criteria development programs and to further the goal of reducing nitrogen/phosphorus pollution in China.

  13. Investigation of Numerical Dissipation in Classical and Implicit Large Eddy Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moutassem El Rafei

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative measure of dissipative properties of different numerical schemes is crucial to computational methods in the field of aerospace applications. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to examine the resolving power of Monotonic Upwind Scheme for Conservation Laws (MUSCL scheme with three different slope limiters: one second-order and two third-order used within the framework of Implicit Large Eddy Simulations (ILES. The performance of the dynamic Smagorinsky subgrid-scale model used in the classical Large Eddy Simulation (LES approach is examined. The assessment of these schemes is of significant importance to understand the numerical dissipation that could affect the accuracy of the numerical solution. A modified equation analysis has been employed to the convective term of the fully-compressible Navier–Stokes equations to formulate an analytical expression of truncation error for the second-order upwind scheme. The contribution of second-order partial derivatives in the expression of truncation error showed that the effect of this numerical error could not be neglected compared to the total kinetic energy dissipation rate. Transitions from laminar to turbulent flow are visualized considering the inviscid Taylor–Green Vortex (TGV test-case. The evolution in time of volumetrically-averaged kinetic energy and kinetic energy dissipation rate have been monitored for all numerical schemes and all grid levels. The dissipation mechanism has been compared to Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS data found in the literature at different Reynolds numbers. We found that the resolving power and the symmetry breaking property are enhanced with finer grid resolutions. The production of vorticity has been observed in terms of enstrophy and effective viscosity. The instantaneous kinetic energy spectrum has been computed using a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. All combinations of numerical methods produce a k − 4 spectrum

  14. Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

    2014-01-01

    Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

  15. Prevention of venous thromboembolic disease after total hip and knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Jay R; Hsu, Wellington K

    2005-09-01

    Patients undergoing total hip and knee arthroplasty are at increased risk for the development of venous thromboembolic disease, and there is general agreement that these patients require prophylaxis. The selection of a prophylactic agent involves a balance between efficacy and safety and often needs to be individualized for specific patients and institutions. Despite extensive research, the ideal agent for prophylaxis against deep venous thrombosis has not been identified. The results of randomized trials indicate that low-molecular-weight heparin, warfarin, and fondaparinux are the most effective prophylactic agents after total hip arthroplasty and that low-molecular-weight heparin, warfarin, fondaparinux, and pneumatic compression boots are the most effective agents after total knee arthroplasty. The duration of prophylaxis against deep venous thrombosis after total hip and knee arthroplasty remains controversial. Prophylaxis should be continued beyond hospital discharge. In the future, the determination of the duration of prophylaxis will be based on the risk stratification of individual patients. The practice of discharging patients from the hospital without prophylaxis, even when the decision is based on negative results of procedures that screen for the presence of deep venous thrombosis, is not cost-effective.

  16. Numerical controlled diamond fly cutting machine for grazing incidence X-ray reflection mirrors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, Fumihiko; Moriyama, Shigeo; Seya, Eiiti

    1992-01-01

    Synchrotron radiation has reached the stage of practical use, and the application to the wide fields that support future advanced technologies such as spectroscopy, the structural analysis of matters, semiconductor lithography and medical light source is expected. For the optical system of the equipment utilizing synchrotron radiation, the total reflection mirrors of oblique incidence are used for collimating and collecting X-ray. In order to restrain their optical aberration, nonspherical shape is required, and as the manufacturing method with high precision for nonspherical mirrors, a numerically controlled diamond cutting machine was developed. As for the cutting of soft metals with diamond tools, the high precision machining of any form can be done by numerical control, the machining time can be reduced as compared with grinding, and the cooling effect is large in metals. The construction of the cutting machine, the principle of machining, the control system, the method of calculating numerical control data, the investigation of machinable forms and the result of evaluation are reported. (K.I.)

  17. Knowledge of heart disease risk in a multicultural community sample of people with diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Julie; Lacey, Kimberly; Abbott, Gina; de Groot, Mary; Chyun, Deborah

    2006-06-01

    Prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) is a primary goal of diabetes management. Unfortunately, CHD risk knowledge is poor among people with diabetes. The objective is to determine predictors of CHD risk knowledge in a community sample of people with diabetes. A total of 678 people with diabetes completed the Heart Disease Facts Questionnaire (HDFQ), a valid and reliable measure of knowledge about the relationship between diabetes and heart disease. In regression analysis with demographics predicting HDFQ scores, sex, annual income, education, and health insurance status predicted HDFQ scores. In a separate regression analysis, having CHD risk factors did not predict HDFQ scores, however, taking medication for CHD risk factors did predict higher HDFQ scores. An analysis of variance showed significant differences between ethnic groups for HDFQ scores; Whites (M = 20.9) showed more CHD risk knowledge than African Americans (M = 19.6), who in turn showed more than Latinos (M = 18.2). Asians scored near Whites (M = 20.4) but did not differ significantly from any other group. Controlling for numerous demographic, socioeconomic, health care, diabetes, and cardiovascular health variables, the magnitude of ethnic differences was attenuated, but persisted. Education regarding modifiable risk factors must be delivered in a timely fashion so that lifestyle modification can be implemented and evaluated before pharmacotherapy is deemed necessary. African Americans and Latinos with diabetes are in the greatest need of education regarding CHD risk.

  18. Evaluation of a visual risk communication tool: effects on knowledge and perception of blood transfusion risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D H; Mehta, M D

    2003-06-01

    Effective risk communication in transfusion medicine is important for health-care consumers, but understanding the numerical magnitude of risks can be difficult. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of a visual risk communication tool on the knowledge and perception of transfusion risk. Laypeople were randomly assigned to receive transfusion risk information with either a written or a visual presentation format for communicating and comparing the probabilities of transfusion risks relative to other hazards. Knowledge of transfusion risk was ascertained with a multiple-choice quiz and risk perception was ascertained by psychometric scaling and principal components analysis. Two-hundred subjects were recruited and randomly assigned. Risk communication with both written and visual presentation formats increased knowledge of transfusion risk and decreased the perceived dread and severity of transfusion risk. Neither format changed the perceived knowledge and control of transfusion risk, nor the perceived benefit of transfusion. No differences in knowledge or risk perception outcomes were detected between the groups randomly assigned to written or visual presentation formats. Risk communication that incorporates risk comparisons in either written or visual presentation formats can improve knowledge and reduce the perception of transfusion risk in laypeople.

  19. Experiments and Numerical Simulations of Dike Erosion due to a Wave Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Evangelista

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Dike erosion is a crucial issue in coastal and fluvial flood risk management. These defense structures appear vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, whose potential occurrence risk seems to be recently increased due to climate change. Their design and reinforcement is, however, a complex task, and although numerical models are very powerful nowadays, real processes cannot be accurately predicted; therefore, physical models constitute a useful tool to investigate different features under controlled conditions. This paper presents some laboratory experimental results of erosion of a sand dike produced by the impact of a dam break wave. Experiments have been conducted in the Water Engineering Laboratory at the University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Italy, in a rectangular channel: here, the sudden opening of a gate forming the reservoir generates the wave impacting the dike, made in turn of two different, almost uniform sands. The physical evidence proves that the erosion process is strongly unsteady and significantly different from a gradual overtopping and highlights the importance of apparent cohesion for the fine sand dike. The experimental results have also been compared against the ones obtained through the numerical integration of a two-phase model, which shows the reasonable predictive capability of the temporal free surface and dike profile evolution.

  20. Evaluation of excessive lifetime cancer risk due to natural radioactivity in the rivers sediments of Northern Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Ahmed Qureshi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Naturally occurring radionuclides 226Ra, 232Th and 40K present in the rivers sediments of Northern Pakistan were measured using HPGe γ-ray spectrometer to evaluate the radiation health hazard indices and excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR. Average concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in the sediments were found to be 50.66 ± 1.29, 70.15 ± 1.45 and 531.70 ± 5.45 Bq kg−1 respectively. Radium equivalent activity (190.89 Bq kg−1, outdoor external dose (87.47 nGy h−1, indoor external dose (165.39 nGy h−1, and total average annual effective dose (0.92 mSv were calculated. The hazard indices are higher than the world's average values. Total excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR was found to be 3.21 × 10−3 which is relatively higher. Numerous cancer deaths are annually reported from the Northern areas of Pakistan, which may be related to high radioactivity in the area.

  1. Avascular Necrosis Is Associated With Increased Transfusions and Readmission Following Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovecchio, Francis C; Manalo, John Paul; Demzik, Alysen; Sahota, Shawn; Beal, Matthew; Manning, David

    2017-05-01

    Avascular necrosis (AVN) may confer an increased risk of complications and readmission following total hip arthroplasty (THA). However, current risk-adjustment models do not account for AVN. A total of 1706 patients who underwent THA for AVN from 2011 to 2013 were selected from the American College of Surgeon's National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database and matched 1:1 to controls using a predetermined propensity score algorithm. Rates of 30-day medical and surgical complications, readmissions, and reoperations were compared between cohorts. Propensity-score logistic regression was used to determine independent associations between AVN and outcomes of interest. Patients with AVN had a higher rate of medical complications than those without AVN (20.3% vs 15.3%, respectively; PAvascular necrosis of the femoral head is an independent risk factor for transfusion up to 72 hours postoperatively and readmission up to 30 days following total hip replacement. [Orthopedics. 2017; 40(3):171-176.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  2. Introduction to precise numerical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Aberth, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    Precise numerical analysis may be defined as the study of computer methods for solving mathematical problems either exactly or to prescribed accuracy. This book explains how precise numerical analysis is constructed. The book also provides exercises which illustrate points from the text and references for the methods presented. All disc-based content for this title is now available on the Web. · Clearer, simpler descriptions and explanations ofthe various numerical methods· Two new types of numerical problems; accurately solving partial differential equations with the included software and computing line integrals in the complex plane.

  3. Large-scale retrospective evaluation of regulated liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry bioanalysis projects using different total error approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Aimin; Saffaj, Taoufiq; Musuku, Adrien; Awaiye, Kayode; Ihssane, Bouchaib; Jhilal, Fayçal; Sosse, Saad Alaoui; Trabelsi, Fethi

    2015-03-01

    The current approach in regulated LC-MS bioanalysis, which evaluates the precision and trueness of an assay separately, has long been criticized for inadequate balancing of lab-customer risks. Accordingly, different total error approaches have been proposed. The aims of this research were to evaluate the aforementioned risks in reality and the difference among four common total error approaches (β-expectation, β-content, uncertainty, and risk profile) through retrospective analysis of regulated LC-MS projects. Twenty-eight projects (14 validations and 14 productions) were randomly selected from two GLP bioanalytical laboratories, which represent a wide variety of assays. The results show that the risk of accepting unacceptable batches did exist with the current approach (9% and 4% of the evaluated QC levels failed for validation and production, respectively). The fact that the risk was not wide-spread was only because the precision and bias of modern LC-MS assays are usually much better than the minimum regulatory requirements. Despite minor differences in magnitude, very similar accuracy profiles and/or conclusions were obtained from the four different total error approaches. High correlation was even observed in the width of bias intervals. For example, the mean width of SFSTP's β-expectation is 1.10-fold (CV=7.6%) of that of Saffaj-Ihssane's uncertainty approach, while the latter is 1.13-fold (CV=6.0%) of that of Hoffman-Kringle's β-content approach. To conclude, the risk of accepting unacceptable batches was real with the current approach, suggesting that total error approaches should be used instead. Moreover, any of the four total error approaches may be used because of their overall similarity. Lastly, the difficulties/obstacles associated with the application of total error approaches in routine analysis and their desirable future improvements are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Numerical modelling for quantitative environmental risk assessment for the disposal of drill cuttings and mud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahab, Mohd Amirul Faiz Abdul; Shaufi Sokiman, Mohamad; Parsberg Jakobsen, Kim

    2017-10-01

    To investigate the fate of drilling waste and their impacts towards surrounding environment, numerical models were generated using an environmental software; MIKE by DHI. These numerical models were used to study the transportation of suspended drill waste plumes in the water column and its deposition on seabed in South China Sea (SCS). A random disposal site with the model area of 50 km × 25 km was selected near the Madalene Shoal in SCS and the ambient currents as well as other meteorological conditions were simulated in details at the proposed location. This paper was focusing on sensitivity study of different drill waste particle characteristics on impacts towards marine receiving environment. The drilling scenarios were obtained and adapted from the oil producer well at offshore Sabah (Case 1) and data from actual exploration drilling case at Pumbaa location (PL 469) in the Norwegian Sea (Case 2). The two cases were compared to study the effect of different drilling particle characteristics and their behavior in marine receiving environment after discharged. Using the Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport models simulated in MIKE by DHI, the variation of currents and the behavior of the drilling waste particles can be analyzed and evaluated in terms of multiple degree zones of impacts.

  5. Spatial correlations in intense ionospheric scintillations - comparison between numerical computation and observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumagai, H.

    1987-01-01

    The spatial correlations in intense ionospheric scintillations were analyzed by comparing numerical results with observational ones. The observational results were obtained by spaced-receiver scintillation measurements of VHF satellite radiowave. The numerical computation was made by using the fourth-order moment equation with fairly realistic ionospheric irregularity models, in which power-law irregularities with spectral index 4, both thin and thick slabs, and both isotropic and anisotropic irregularities, were considered. Evolution of the S(4) index and the transverse correlation function was computed. The numerical result that the transverse correlation distance decreases with the increase in S(4) was consistent with that obtained in the observation, suggesting that multiple scattering plays an important role in the intense scintillations observed. The anisotropy of irregularities proved to act as if the density fluctuation increased. This effect, as well as the effect of slab thickness, was evaluated by the total phase fluctuations that the radiowave experienced in the slab. On the basis of the comparison, the irregularity height and electron-density fluctuation which is necessary to produce a particular strength of scintillation were estimated. 30 references

  6. Total working period and other risk factors related to eating protein foods habits among civil pilots in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indah Imelda Hutabarat

    2017-07-01

    pilots in Indonesia. Methods: A cross-sectional study using secondary data from the survey of eating, drinking and physical exercise habits among civilian pilots in Indonesia 2016. Data collected were demographic characteristics, physical exercise habits, smoking habits, knowledge, body mass index and flight characteristics. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze the dominant factors associated with protein eating habits. Results: Among 528 pilots aged 19-64 years, 194 (36.74% pilots had excessive protein eating habits . Long working period and body mass index were the dominant risk factors associated with protein eating habit in pilots. Compared to pilots with 1-9 years working period, pilots with 10-40 years working period had 35% lower risk of excessive protein eating habits (RRA = 0.65; 95% CI 0:49 - 0.87. Compared to pilots with normal body mass index, overweight pilots had 34% lower risk of excessive protein eating habits (RRA = 0.66; 95% CI 0:47 - 0.93. Conclusion: Long working period and overweight were protective factors from the risk of excessive protein eating habits Keywords: protein eating habits, total working periode, body mass index, civilian pilots Indonesia

  7. Experimental and Numerical Modelling of CO2 Atmospheric Dispersion in Hazardous Gas Emission Sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, A.; sainz Gracia, A. S.; Grandia, F.; Bruno, J.

    2015-12-01

    Under stable atmospheric conditions and/or in presence of topographic depressions, CO2 concentrations can reach high values resulting in lethal effect to living organisms. The distribution of denser than air gases released from the underground is governed by gravity, turbulence and dispersion. Once emitted, the gas distribution is initially driven by buoyancy and a gas cloud accumulates on the ground (gravitational phase); with time the density gradient becomes less important due to dispersion or mixing and gas distribution is mainly governed by wind and atmospheric turbulence (passive dispersion phase). Natural analogues provide evidences of the impact of CO2 leakage. Dangerous CO2 concentration in atmosphere related to underground emission have been occasionally reported although the conditions favouring the persistence of such a concentration are barely studied.In this work, the dynamics of CO2 in the atmosphere after ground emission is assessed to quantify their potential risk. Two approaches have been followed: (1) direct measurement of air concentration in a natural emission site, where formation of a "CO2 lake" is common and (2) numerical atmospheric modelling. Two sites with different morphology were studied: (a) the Cañada Real site, a flat terrain in the Volcanic Field of Campo de Calatrava (Spain); (b) the Solforata di Pomezia site, a rough terrain in the Alban Hills Volcanic Region (Italy). The comparison between field data and model calculations reveal that numerical dispersion models are capable of predicting the formation of CO2 accumulation over the ground as a consequence of underground gas emission. Therefore, atmospheric modelling could be included as a valuable methodology in the risk assessment of leakage in natural degassing systems and in CCS projects. Conclusions from this work provide clues on whether leakage may be a real risk for humans and under which conditions this risk needs to be included in the risk assessment.

  8. Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinzato, Takashi

    2015-01-01

    In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

  9. Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Shinzato

    Full Text Available In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

  10. Composite body movements modulate numerical cognition: Evidence from the motion–numerical compatibility effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaorong eCheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available A recent hierarchical model of numerical processing, initiated by Fischer and Brugger (2011 and Fisher (2012, suggested that situated factors, such as different body postures and body movements, can influence the magnitude representation and bias numerical processing. Indeed, Loetscher and colleagues (2008 found that participants’ behavior in a random number generation (RNG task was biased by head rotations. More small numbers were reported after leftward than rightward head turns, i.e. a motion–numerical compatibility effect. Here, by carrying out two experiments, we explored whether similar motion–numerical compatibility effects exist for movements of other important body components, e.g. arms, and for composite body movements as well, which are basis for complex human activities in many ecologically meaningful situations. In Experiment 1, a motion-numerical compatibility effect was observed for lateral rotations of two body components, i.e., the head and arms. Relatively large numbers were reported after making rightward compared to leftward movements for both lateral head and arm turns. The motion-numerical compatibility effect was observed again in Experiment 2 when participants were asked to perform composite body movements of congruent movement directions, e.g., simultaneous head left turns and arm left turns. However, it disappeared when the movement directions were incongruent, e.g., simultaneous head left turns and arm right turns. Taken together, our results extended Loetscher et al.'s (2008 finding by demonstrating that their effect is effector-general and exists for arm movements. Moreover, our study reveals for the first time that the impact of spatial information on numerical processing induced by each of the two sensorimotor-based situated factors, e.g., a lateral head turn and a lateral arm turn, can cancel each other out.

  11. Numerical Hydrodynamics in General Relativity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Font José A.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The current status of numerical solutions for the equations of ideal general relativistic hydrodynamics is reviewed. With respect to an earlier version of the article, the present update provides additional information on numerical schemes, and extends the discussion of astrophysical simulations in general relativistic hydrodynamics. Different formulations of the equations are presented, with special mention of conservative and hyperbolic formulations well-adapted to advanced numerical methods. A large sample of available numerical schemes is discussed, paying particular attention to solution procedures based on schemes exploiting the characteristic structure of the equations through linearized Riemann solvers. A comprehensive summary of astrophysical simulations in strong gravitational fields is presented. These include gravitational collapse, accretion onto black holes, and hydrodynamical evolutions of neutron stars. The material contained in these sections highlights the numerical challenges of various representative simulations. It also follows, to some extent, the chronological development of the field, concerning advances on the formulation of the gravitational field and hydrodynamic equations and the numerical methodology designed to solve them.

  12. Uralic numerals : is the evolution of numeral system reconstructable? : (Reading new Václav Balzhek's book on numerals in Eurasia) / Vladimir Napolskich

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Napolskich, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    Rmt.: Balzhek, Václav. Numerals. Comparative-etymological analyses of numeral systems and their implications (saharan, nubian, egyptian, berber, kartvelian, ralic, altaic and indo-european languages). Brno, 1999. (Spisy Masarykovy Univerzity v Brné. Filozofická fakulta; 322). Ülevaade uurali keelte arvsõnu käsitlevast osast

  13. Optimization of the Fabrication Route of Ferritic/Martensitic ODS Cladding Tubes: Metallurgical Approach and Pilgering Numerical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logé, R.E.; Vanegas-Marques, E.; Mocellin, K.; Toualbi, L.; Carlan, Y. de

    2013-01-01

    Conclusions: • Fabrication route of 9Cr-ODS (martensitic) alloys is well controlled. • Fabrication route of 14Cr-ODS (ferritic) should be further optimized. • The choice between a ferritic or a martensitic grade is not already done, it will depend also on the behaviour under irradiation, the corrosion resistance … • Part of the optimization can rely on numerical simulation of pilgering: • The constitutive behaviour is an essential ingredient for process optimization: appropriate cyclic laws must be used. • The numerical analysis can look at cracking risks, final yield stress, and even residual stress state or surface roughness. • HPTR laboratory approaches can be translated to the (industrial) VMR process provided some additional adjustments in the numerical code

  14. Assessment on the pedestrian risk during floods based on numerical simulation - A case study in Jinan City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

  15. Numerical semigroups and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Assi, Abdallah

    2016-01-01

    This work presents applications of numerical semigroups in Algebraic Geometry, Number Theory, and Coding Theory. Background on numerical semigroups is presented in the first two chapters, which introduce basic notation and fundamental concepts and irreducible numerical semigroups. The focus is in particular on free semigroups, which are irreducible; semigroups associated with planar curves are of this kind. The authors also introduce semigroups associated with irreducible meromorphic series, and show how these are used in order to present the properties of planar curves. Invariants of non-unique factorizations for numerical semigroups are also studied. These invariants are computationally accessible in this setting, and thus this monograph can be used as an introduction to Factorization Theory. Since factorizations and divisibility are strongly connected, the authors show some applications to AG Codes in the final section. The book will be of value for undergraduate students (especially those at a higher leve...

  16. A genetic fuzzy system for unstable angina risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wei; Huang, Zhengxing; Ji, Lei; Duan, Huilong

    2014-02-18

    Unstable Angina (UA) is widely accepted as a critical phase of coronary heart disease with patients exhibiting widely varying risks. Early risk assessment of UA is at the center of the management program, which allows physicians to categorize patients according to the clinical characteristics and stratification of risk and different prognosis. Although many prognostic models have been widely used for UA risk assessment in clinical practice, a number of studies have highlighted possible shortcomings. One serious drawback is that existing models lack the ability to deal with the intrinsic uncertainty about the variables utilized. In order to help physicians refine knowledge for the stratification of UA risk with respect to vagueness in information, this paper develops an intelligent system combining genetic algorithm and fuzzy association rule mining. In detail, it models the input information's vagueness through fuzzy sets, and then applies a genetic fuzzy system on the acquired fuzzy sets to extract the fuzzy rule set for the problem of UA risk assessment. The proposed system is evaluated using a real data-set collected from the cardiology department of a Chinese hospital, which consists of 54 patient cases. 9 numerical patient features and 17 categorical patient features that appear in the data-set are selected in the experiments. The proposed system made the same decisions as the physician in 46 (out of a total of 54) tested cases (85.2%). By comparing the results that are obtained through the proposed system with those resulting from the physician's decision, it has been found that the developed model is highly reflective of reality. The proposed system could be used for educational purposes, and with further improvements, could assist and guide young physicians in their daily work.

  17. Numerical chromosome errors in day 7 somatic nuclear blastocysts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Booth, Paul J; Viuff, Dorthe; Tan, Shijian J

    2003-01-01

    Day 7 bovine somatic nuclear transfer (NT) embryos reconstructed from granulosa cells were examined for numerical chromosome aberrations as a potential cause of the high embryonic and fetal loss observed in such embryos after transfer. The NT embryos were reconstructed using a zona-free manipulat......Day 7 bovine somatic nuclear transfer (NT) embryos reconstructed from granulosa cells were examined for numerical chromosome aberrations as a potential cause of the high embryonic and fetal loss observed in such embryos after transfer. The NT embryos were reconstructed using a zona...... families, consisting of 112 blastocysts reconstructed from five different primary granulosa cell cultures, were examined. Overall, the mean chromosome complement within embryos was 86.9 +/- 3.7% (mean +/- SEM) diploid, 2.6 +/- 0.5% triploid, 10.0 +/- 3.1% tetraploid, and 0.5 +/- 0.2% pentaploid or greater......; the vast majority (>75%) of the abnormal nuclei were tetraploid. Completely diploid and mixoploid embryos represented 22.1 +/- 4.5% and 73.7 +/- 5.5%, respectively, of all clones. Six totally polyploid blastocysts, containing or=5N chromosome complements, respectively) between two clone families were...

  18. A Closed-Form Solution for Robust Portfolio Selection with Worst-Case CVaR Risk Measure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Tang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the uncertainty probability distribution, we establish the worst-case CVaR (WCCVaR risk measure and discuss a robust portfolio selection problem with WCCVaR constraint. The explicit solution, instead of numerical solution, is found and two-fund separation is proved. The comparison of efficient frontier with mean-variance model is discussed and finally we give numerical comparison with VaR model and equally weighted strategy. The numerical findings indicate that the proposed WCCVaR model has relatively smaller risk and greater return and relatively higher accumulative wealth than VaR model and equally weighted strategy.

  19. A general method for computing the total solar radiation force on complex spacecraft structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, F. K.

    1981-01-01

    The method circumvents many of the existing difficulties in computational logic presently encountered in the direct analytical or numerical evaluation of the appropriate surface integral. It may be applied to complex spacecraft structures for computing the total force arising from either specular or diffuse reflection or even from non-Lambertian reflection and re-radiation.

  20. Are soil pollution risks established by governments the same as actual risks?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijnders, L.

    2009-01-01

    Though soil pollution policies in North America and the European Union increasingly use risk-based standards, the construction and application of such standards are often deficient in taking account of actual risks. Standards refer to total concentrations of substances and not to the biologically

  1. Contribution to modeling and dynamic risk hedging in energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noufel, Frikha

    2010-12-01

    This thesis is concerned with probabilistic numerical problems about modeling, risk control and risk hedging motivated by applications to energy markets. The main tool is based on stochastic approximation and simulation methods. This thesis consists of three parts. The first one is devoted to the computation of two risk measures of the portfolio loss distribution L: the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). This computation uses a stochastic algorithm combined with an adaptive variance reduction technique. The first part of this chapter deals with the finite dimensional case, the second part extends the results of the first part to the case of a path-dependency process and the last one deals low discrepancy sequences. The second chapter is devoted with risk minimizing hedging strategies in an incomplete market operating in discrete time using quantization based stochastic approximation. Theoretical results on CVaR hedging are presented then numerical aspects are addressed in a Markovian framework. The last part deals with joint modeling of Gas and Electricity spot prices. The multi-factor model presented is based on stationary Ornstein process with parameterized diffusion coefficient. (author)

  2. Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evans Christopher

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related macular degeneration (AMD is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. Methods A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR and/or relative risk (RR outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated. Results Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Conclusions Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.

  3. Numerical simulation of installation of skirt foundations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vangelsten, Bjoern Vidar

    1997-12-31

    Skirt foundation has been increasingly used for permanent offshore oil installations and anchors for drilling ships. Suction is commonly used in skirt foundation installing. If a large amount of suction is applied, the soil around the foundation may fail and the foundation become useless. This thesis studies failure due to high seepage gradients, aiming to provide a basis for reducing the risk of such failures. Skirt penetration model testing has shown that to solve the problem one must understand what is going on at the skirt tip during suction installation. A numerical model based on micro mechanics was developed as continuum hypothesis was seen to be unsuitable to describe the processes in the critical phases of the failure. The numerical model combines two-dimensional elliptical particles with the finite difference method for flow to model water flow in a granular material. The key idea is to formulate the permeability as a function of the porosity of the grain assembly and so obtain an interaction between the finite difference method on flow and the particle movement. A computer program, DYNELL, was developed and used to simulate: (1) weight penetration of a skirt wall, (2) combined suction and weight penetration of a skirt wall, and (3) critical gradient tests around a skirt wall to study failure mechanisms. The model calculations agree well with laboratory experiments. 16 refs., 124 figs., 21 tabs.

  4. Experimental and numerical study on frost heave of saturated rock under uniform freezing conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zhitao; Xia, Caichu; Li, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    A series of freezing experiments are conducted on saturated sandstone and mortar specimens to investigate the frost heave of saturated rock under uniform freezing conditions. The experimental results show that the frost heave of saturated rock is isotropic under uniform freezing conditions. During the freezing process, three stages are observed in the curves of variation of total frost heaving strain versus time: the thermal contraction stage, the frost heaving stage and the steady stage. Moreover, the amount of final stable frost heave first increases and then decreases with decrease in freezing temperature, and the maximum final stable frost heave occurs at different freezing temperature in saturated sandstone and mortar. Furthermore, a coupled thermal-mechanical (TM) model of frost heave of saturated rock is proposed in which a constraint coefficient \\zeta is used to consider the susceptibility of the internal rock grain structure to the expansion of pore ice. Then, numerical simulations are implemented with COMSOL to solve the governing equations of the TM model. Comparisons of the numerical results with the experimental results are performed to demonstrate the reliability of the model. The influences of elastic modulus and porosity on frost heave are also investigated, and the results show that the total frost heaving strain decreases non-linearly with increasing elastic modulus, and the decrease is significant when the elastic modulus is less than 3000 MPa, or approximately five times the elastic modulus of ice. In addition, the total frost heaving strain increases linearly with increasing porosity. Finally, an empirical equation between total frost heaving strain and freezing temperature is proposed and the equation well describes the variation of total frost heaving strain with freezing temperature.

  5. Numerical problems in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Devraj

    2015-01-01

    Numerical Problems in Physics, Volume 1 is intended to serve the need of the students pursuing graduate and post graduate courses in universities with Physics and Materials Science as subject including those appearing in engineering, medical, and civil services entrance examinations. KEY FEATURES: * 29 chapters on Optics, Wave & Oscillations, Electromagnetic Field Theory, Solid State Physics & Modern Physics * 540 solved numerical problems of various universities and ompetitive examinations * 523 multiple choice questions for quick and clear understanding of subject matter * 567 unsolved numerical problems for grasping concepts of the various topic in Physics * 49 Figures for understanding problems and concept

  6. Numerical solution of the polymer system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haugse, V.; Karlsen, K.H.; Lie, K.-A.; Natvig, J.R.

    1999-05-01

    The paper describes the application of front tracking to the polymer system, an example of a nonstrictly hyperbolic system. Front tracking computes piecewise constant approximations based on approximate Remain solutions and exact tracking of waves. It is well known that the front tracking method may introduce a blow-up of the initial total variation for initial data along the curve where the two eigenvalues of the hyperbolic system are identical. It is demonstrated by numerical examples that the method converges to the correct solution after a finite time that decreases with the discretization parameter. For multidimensional problems, front tracking is combined with dimensional splitting and numerical experiments indicate that large splitting steps can be used without loss of accuracy. Typical CFL numbers are in the range of 10 to 20 and comparisons with the Riemann free, high-resolution method confirm the high efficiency of front tracking. The polymer system, coupled with an elliptic pressure equation, models two-phase, tree-component polymer flooding in an oil reservoir. Two examples are presented where this model is solved by a sequential time stepping procedure. Because of the approximate Riemann solver, the method is non-conservative and CFL members must be chosen only moderately larger than unity to avoid substantial material balance errors generated in near-well regions after water breakthrough. Moreover, it is demonstrated that dimensional splitting may introduce severe grid orientation effects for unstable displacements that are accentuated for decreasing discretization parameters. 9 figs., 2 tabs., 26 refs.

  7. Numerical modeling of oil spills in continental and estuarine waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goeury, C.

    2012-10-01

    The application of the European Water Framework Directive on water quality for human consumption and industrial activities creates a need for water quality assessment and monitoring systems. The MIGR'HYCAR research project (http://www.migrhycar.com) was initiated to provide decisional tools for risks connected to oil spills in continental waters (rivers, lakes and estuaries), which represent more than 50% of accidental spills in France. Within the framework of this project, a new numerical oil spill model has been developed, as part of the TELEMAC hydro-informatics system (http://www.opentelemac.org), by combining Lagrangian and Eulerian methods. The Lagrangian model describes the transport of an oil spill near the free surface. The oil spill model enables to simulate the main processes driving oil plumes: advection, diffusion, oil beaching, oil re-floating, evaporation, dissolution, spreading and volatilization. Though generally considered as a minor process, dissolution is important from the point of view of toxicity. To model dissolved oil in water, an Eulerian advection-diffusion model is used. The fraction of dissolved oil is represented by a passive tracer. This approach is able to follow dissolved hydrocarbons in the water column. Laboratory experiments were conducted to characterise the numerous kinetics of the processes listed above. In addition, meso-scale dynamic experiments in artificial channels and test cases derived from the literature are used to validate the numerical model. (author)

  8. Dairy product consumption and risk of colorectal cancer in an older mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrubés, Laura; Babio, Nancy; Mena-Sánchez, Guillermo; Toledo, Estefania; Ramírez-Sabio, Judith B; Estruch, Ramón; Ros, Emilio; Fitó, Montserrat; Arós, Fernando; Fiol, Miquel; Santos-Lozano, José Manuel; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Pintó, Xavier; Martínez-González, Miguel Ángel; Sorlí, José Vicente; Basora, Josep; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2018-04-16

    Prospective studies have reported an inverse association between the consumption of total dairy products and milk and the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Nonetheless, there is little and inconsistent evidence regarding subtypes of dairy product and CRC risk. We assessed the associations between the consumption of total dairy products, their different subtypes and CRC risk in older Mediterranean individuals at high cardiovascular risk. We analyzed data from 7,216 men and women (55-80 years) without CRC at baseline from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea study. Individuals were recruited between 2003 and 2009 and followed up until December 2012. At baseline and yearly thereafter, consumption of total and specific dairy products was assessed using a validated 137-item food-frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards ratios (HRs) of CRC incidence were estimated for tertiles of mean consumption of dairy products during the follow-up. During a median [interquartile range] follow-up of 6.0 [4.4-7.3] years, we documented 101 incident CRC cases. In the multivariable-adjusted models, HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CRC for the comparison of extreme tertiles of total dairy product and low-fat milk consumption were 0.55 (95% CI: 0.31-0.99; p-trend = 0.037) and 0.54 (95% CI: 0.32-0.92; p-trend = 0.022), respectively. No significant associations with other dairy products (whole-fat and low-fat dairy products; total, low-fat and whole-fat yogurt; cheese; total, low-fat and whole-fat milk; concentrated full-fat dairy products, sugar-enriched dairy products and fermented dairy products) were found. A high consumption of total dairy products and low-fat milk was significantly associated with a reduced CRC risk. © 2018 UICC.

  9. Numerical Optimisation in Non Reacting Conditions of the Injector Geometry for a Continuous Detonation Wave Rocket Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaillard, T.; Davidenko, D.; Dupoirieux, F.

    2015-06-01

    The paper presents the methodology and the results of a numerical study, which is aimed at the investigation and optimisation of different means of fuel and oxidizer injection adapted to rocket engines operating in the rotating detonation mode. As the simulations are achieved at the local scale of a single injection element, only one periodic pattern of the whole geometry can be calculated so that the travelling detonation waves and the associated chemical reactions can not be taken into account. Here, separate injection of fuel and oxidizer is considered because premixed injection is handicapped by the risk of upstream propagation of the detonation wave. Different associations of geometrical periodicity and symmetry are investigated for the injection elements distributed over the injector head. To analyse the injection and mixing processes, a nonreacting 3D flow is simulated using the LES approach. Performance of the studied configurations is analysed using the results on instantaneous and mean flowfields as well as by comparing the mixing efficiency and the total pressure recovery evaluated for different configurations.

  10. Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Philipp; Osborne, Michael A; Girolami, Mark

    2015-07-08

    We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

  11. Problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, T.L.

    1985-01-01

    Rational regulation of environmental hazards may be based on the implicit underlying principles that government actions should enhance the average quality of life for those governed and maintain some degree of equity in the distribution of benefits, costs, and risks. Issues arising from these principles have practical implications for risk management policy in general and for the development and application of radiological protection criteria in particular. One of the issues is the appropriate distribution of expenditures for regulating different risks. The total resources available for risk regulation are finite; hence, minimizing the total risk subject to this constraint is an appropriate strategy for optimum risk management. Using a simple model, it is shown that this strategy leads to a distribution of expenditures between different risks such that a greater fraction is allocated to a risk with a higher cost of mitigation or control but the allocation is limited in such a manner that the fractional contribution of that risk to the total risk is also higher. The effect of deviating from this strategy is examined. It is shown that reducing a single risk of concern below the optimum value by a factor 1/F can increase the total risk by about F times the risk of concern. Taking into account the large uncertainties in risk assessment for establishing radiological protection criteria, it is argued that an optimum strategy for remedial action should (1) set basic risk limits as high as reasonable; (2) use realistic, case-specific data and analyses in deriving allowable residual contamination levels from basic risk limits; and (3) implement a policy of reducing residual contamination to levels that are as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA) within the constraints imposed by optimum resource allocation. 10 references, 1 figure

  12. Numerical Asymptotic Solutions Of Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurston, Gaylen A.

    1992-01-01

    Numerical algorithms derived and compared with classical analytical methods. In method, expansions replaced with integrals evaluated numerically. Resulting numerical solutions retain linear independence, main advantage of asymptotic solutions.

  13. Should All Patients Be Included in Alternative Payment Models for Primary Total Hip Arthroplasty and Total Knee Arthroplasty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozell, Joshua C; Courtney, Paul M; Dattilo, Jonathan R; Wu, Chia H; Lee, Gwo-Chin

    2016-09-01

    Alternative payment models in total joint replacement incentivize cost effective health care delivery and reward reductions in length of stay (LOS), complications, and readmissions. If not adjusted for patient comorbidities, they may encourage restrictive access to health care. We prospectively evaluated 802 consecutive primary total hip arthroplasty and total knee arthroplasty patients evaluating comorbidities associated with increased LOS and readmissions. During this 9-month period, 115 patients (14.3%) required hospitalization >3 days and 16 (1.99%) were readmitted within 90 days. Univariate analysis demonstrated that preoperative narcotic use, heart failure, stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and liver disease were more likely to require hospitalization >3 days. In multivariate analysis, CKD and COPD were independent risk factors for LOS >3 days. A Charlson comorbidity index >5 points was associated with increased LOS and readmissions. Patients with CKD, COPD, and Charlson comorbidity index >5 points should not be included in alternative payment model for THA and TKA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

    2008-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

  15. Risk informed life cycle plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Ralph S. III; Nutt, Mark M.

    2003-01-01

    Many facility life cycle activities including design, construction, fabrication, inspection and maintenance are evolving from a deterministic to a risk-informed basis. The risk informed approach uses probabilistic methods to evaluate the contribution of individual system components to total system performance. Total system performance considers both safety and cost considerations including system failure, reliability, and availability. By necessity, a risk-informed approach considers both the component's life cycle and the life cycle of the system. In the nuclear industry, risk-informed approaches, namely probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), have become a standard tool used to evaluate the safety of nuclear power plants. Recent studies pertaining to advanced reactor development have indicated that these new power plants must provide enhanced safety over existing nuclear facilities and be cost-competitive with other energy sources. Risk-informed approaches, beyond traditional PRA, offer the opportunity to optimize design while considering the total life cycle of the plant in order to realize these goals. The use of risk-informed design approaches in the nuclear industry is only beginning, with recent promulgation of risk-informed regulations and proposals for risk-informed codes. This paper briefly summarizes the current state of affairs regarding the use of risk-informed approaches in design. Key points to fully realize the benefit of applying a risk-informed approach to nuclear power plant design are then presented. These points are equally applicable to non-nuclear facilities where optimization for cost competitiveness and/or safety is desired. (author)

  16. Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

    2017-01-01

    The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

  17. Numerical analysis using Sage

    CERN Document Server

    Anastassiou, George A

    2015-01-01

    This is the first numerical analysis text to use Sage for the implementation of algorithms and can be used in a one-semester course for undergraduates in mathematics, math education, computer science/information technology, engineering, and physical sciences. The primary aim of this text is to simplify understanding of the theories and ideas from a numerical analysis/numerical methods course via a modern programming language like Sage. Aside from the presentation of fundamental theoretical notions of numerical analysis throughout the text, each chapter concludes with several exercises that are oriented to real-world application.  Answers may be verified using Sage.  The presented code, written in core components of Sage, are backward compatible, i.e., easily applicable to other software systems such as Mathematica®.  Sage is  open source software and uses Python-like syntax. Previous Python programming experience is not a requirement for the reader, though familiarity with any programming language is a p...

  18. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  19. Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

    2013-01-01

    Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

  20. A hierarchical procedure for calculation of risk importance measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.; Dinsmore, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Starting with a general importance definition based on conditional probabilities, a hierarchical process for calculating risk importance measures from a PSA's numerical results is developed. By the appropriate choice of events in the general definition, measures such as the risk achievement worth and the risk reduction worth can be calculated without requantifying the PSA's models. Required approximations are clearly defined and the subsequent constraints on the applicability of the process discussed. (orig.)